With the election safely out of the way, we might have expected the heat to have gone out of the great blogosphere-versus-The Australian opinion poll wars. Turns out Dennis Shanahan has other ideas:
This week’s most eye-catching figures were Kevin Rudd’s 70per cent and Brendan Nelson’s 9per cent on the question of who would make the better prime minister, a Newspoll record high for a prime minister and a new low for an Opposition leader. After The Australian put the story, which I wrote, on the front page, it captured public attention and was reported, commented upon and retold in newspapers, radio, television and blogs. As Possum Comitatus said …: “While records are meant to be broken, this one was obviously meant to be smashed. Brendan Nelson has stormed into the worst preferred prime minister result in the history of Newspoll with an astonishing 9 per cent.” Peter Brent’s Mumble and William Bowe’s Poll Bludger, sites that panned the Newspoll reporting in the past, covered it without personal comment … Yet there was one key point missing from all the commentary that has previously cropped up in analysis of Newspolls: in Possum’s words, Nelson “stormed” to his rating by 2 percentage points. Rudd’s record on preferred PM was also reached by a rise of 2 percentage points. The margin of error for the Newspoll survey on a sample of 1140 is 3 percentage points. The leaders “stormed” to these records with movements of less than the margin of error. In the past, The Australian has been castigated for reporting movements of 2 per cent and placing stories on page one based on “record” lows … Statistical bloggers forever complain about reports of movements of less than 3 per cent and essentially want polls to be banished from newspapers and public debate except during an election. On this occasion, as on previous occasions, the simple news judgment was made in writing the story and placing the story, that a record, however it is attained, is newsworthy. The bloggers thought so, as they trawled the records to find Crean’s lowest reading in Newspoll and talked about the importance of the preferred prime minister figure for leaders. If Nelson’s preferred prime minister rating drops one point to a record low of 8 per cent, is that worthy of page one again? Or do we ignore that as being within the margin of error? Fat chance. Polls interest people, influence politicians and should be treated consistently.
For the record, I personally had very little to say last year about Shanahan’s Newspoll reporting. This was partly because the subject was being done to death elsewhere (not least in my own comments threads), but also because I had more sympathy than some for the idea that Labor’s bloated lead would indeed feel the effects of gravity before polling day. My post on Tuesday’s Newspoll even managed a sarcastic dig at those who paint him as a Coalition stooge.
In other news, the AEC has commenced a redistribution for Tasmania, it having gone the maximum seven years without one. The AEC’s figures respectively put enrolment in Bass, Denison and Lyons at 1.2 per cent, 1.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent below average, with Braddon and Franklin 1.5 per cent and 3.7 per cent above. So the redistribution will presumably involve a transfer of territory from Franklin to Lyons, which is unlikely to make much difference to anyone’s electoral prospects. Changes to the more sensitive Bass and Braddon are likely to be negligible. Uniquely, Tasmanian boundary changes have effect at both federal and state level.
UPDATE: Shanahan’s central contention, that Nelson’s drop from 11 per cent to 9 per cent was within the margin of error, is questioned by David Walsh and Unicorn in comments. The latter tells us that the sampling error depends on the uniformity of the population, so the 3 per cent figure assumes a 50-50 response like you roughly get from a two-party split. Whereas the question of Nelson’s approval or non-approval in fact splits about 10-90, producing a margin of 1.7 per cent.
223 Comments
William. Shansie is just beastly and silly.
I cannot recollect any headline thread in which you came out against Shansy and his Newspoll slant. On the personal level he is stating.
Assessment of a Newspoll, yes. Shansie, no.
More of moment, the attack of Pollbludger, Possum, Mumble.
A clear win for the bloggers.
If Beasley was as bad as Sham- I-AM led us to believe, and Nelson is as bad as Newspoll says, then there can be no place in Federal Leadership for Brendan Nelson. He should have packed up and left by now.
Defending the indefensible is Sham I Am’s main problem that leads to skewing poll results into Liberal Party acceptable headlines.
Surely it is neither here nor there whether the “real” figure is two or three points above or below.
It might be true enough to say the movement was within the margin of error. But Possum wasn’t focussing on the movement; he was focussing on the actual number itself.
The fact that Nelson polled a similar score two weeks ago doesn’t detract from Possum’s point. On the contrary, it bolsters it.
(P.S. Another point to consider: The standard margin of error presumes a 50/50 breakdown, or at least something in that ballpark. The MoE actually gets smaller when you get a split more towards the extremes, e.g. 90/10, 99/1…)
How any of you bloggers can look Dennis in the face staggers me.
After all, we know now that he is the King of the Polls, having correctly and consistently predicted that John Howard would win the last election.
Just because you lot are out of touch with the pulse of Australian life is no reason to take it out on Dennis.
William, Possum – yes, I’m talking to you – hang your heads in shame.
I expect to see a personal apology to Mr Shanahan on your websites shortly.
he is a menace to mainstream thought
I find it easier to treat Glen’s comments with credibility – at least they’re sometimes grounded in (however misguided) fact, opposed to the fantasy Shanahan peddles. He’s a second rate commentator who can’t cut it as an analyst and I fail to see what he brings to the Australian.
C’mon
he’s got a point… (heresy?)
on the up side things have been fairly dull in the blogosphere of late…methinks thats gunna change
Dennis Shanahan is a quack, who in these new enlightened times will be lucky to keep his job.
He can’t bring himself to admit for a political commentator he was hopelessly out of touch and unable to even read his own newspolls. Where is his reference to John Howard’s big comeback based on 1 margin of error increase in preferred PM (when he was still down to Rudd). In fact Rudd is still in his honeymoon period, battling bravely pass the budget bounce.
Shanahan, you are a quack.
Nelson’s problem (the Doctor’s Dilemma), so clearly set out by Possum…
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/02/19/so-just-how-bad-is-9-for-brendan-nelson/#comments
is insuperable. He’s got himself in the situation of attracting fire from both opposing camps within the conservative ranks. Makes you wonder who the 9% are.
Reminds me of this ingenious Lou Costello (I think) sketch which was set during the civil war with both sides shooting at each other from trenches. Lou was somehow trapped in the middle of no-mans-land and needed to get out. He sowed together the right side of a Union uniform with the left side of a Confederate uniform. He put it on and stood up with the Union army in the trench to the right and Confed to the left. Soldiers on each side held their fire, each thinking he was one of theirs, and Lou started to walk to safety. Until…
He stupidly turned around. Of course both sides then started shooting at him.
Very funny.
Like Lou, Nelson needs to re-align himself quickly or he’s a goner.
At least we now know for sure that Dennis reads the blogs, so here goes: Hey Shanahan, you’re a w*nk*r.
Lest we forget.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22218045-17301,00.html
Wow. Shanahan gives huge exposure to blogs that he has a problem with. I wonder if the sites mentioned will get more traffic as a result…
Is Dennis really that simple? Why would a professional journalist engage in such a petty, tit-for-tat attack like this, when it will only increase traffic to the sites that he is complaining about and galvanise more bloggers against him?
It really doesn’t make sense. Well, I guess he has to try and fill up those column inches somehow…
The content of Shanahan’s rant is, as usual, not worth giving the time of day to. What is more interesting is that he is still obviously quite stung by the critcism he received from blogs last year. At least it hit its mark
Presumably it will also increase hits on his GG article on-line. Maybe his stats were down.
Leaving Mr Shanahan aside for the mo (good idea – boring), and looking at the other part of Peter’s post, the AEC distribution of the five Tasmanian divisions.
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission has recently proposed changes to the 15 Legislative Council divisions. For those interested (not me) their deliberations and estimations of trends in Tasmania’s population might be relevant.
See my site here for an overview here:http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/02/legislative-council-bounsary.html
The TEC report here: http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/LegislativeRedistribution.html
The excitement re Nelson’s rating was extraordinary. Mostly it was reported as either an approval rating or a satisfaction rating – even though it was neither.
Also the previous month’s poll with the Preferred PM figures at Rudd 68 Nelson 11 is, as has been mentioned, effectively the same result.
What is of some interest, especially to those with polling withdrawals from 2007, is a comparison of satisfaction ratings for both Rudd and Nelson across the two months of polls and a comparison to the polling following the 1996 election.
First, satisfaction levels:
Rudd as PM
January Approve 59 Disapp 11 U/C 30
February Approve 68 Disapp 13 U/C 19
It shows a clear jump from uncommitted to approval for Rudd following the “sorry” week.
Nelson as Opposition Leader
January Approve 36 Disapp 19 U/C 45
February Approve 40 Disapp 31 U/C 29
It shows a clear jump from uncommitted to disapproval for Nelson, although his approval improved a little.
Second, comparison to 1996:
Voting intentions
1996 (March/April) ALP 34.5 L/NP 53.5 TPP 41/59 (projected @ 46% flow to the L/NP = 1996 result)
2008 (Jan/Feb) ALP 46 L/NP 35.5 TPP 57.5/42.5
Preferred PM
1996 (March/April) Howard 55 Beazley 20 U/C 25
2008 (Jan/Feb) Rudd 69 Nelson 10 U/C 21
As for satisfaction ratings,
Across March/April 1996 Howard’s scores were: approval ~ 50, disapproval ~ 15, and uncommitted ~ 35,
and Beazley: approval ~ 39, disapproval ~ 16, and uncommitted ~ 45,
Then the Port Arthur tragedy occurred and both leaders ratings improved with the subsequent “guns” debate, although Preferred PM improved slightly more for Howard than Beazley, before returning to their average levels.
It will be interesting to see how Rudd and Nelson rate, when the “sorry” emotion has washed through.
Sorry, not Peter’s post; WILLIAM’S post. Duh.
I am surprised that The Australian keeps publishing his rubbish (and pays him for that). I guess if they keep going with these second rate journos (including JA) The Australian will simply lose whatever credibility they have left. Keep it up guys, at least it is good amusement for many of us.
12 – Andos
Since when has anyone Shanahan considered a professional journalist?
what is Shamahams worth without JWH?
what is Albrechtsons worth without a culture war?
why are the still published?
9
bryce
Bloody hell bryce, I was just thinking of that very scene the other day as poor Horatio Hornet was trying to be all things to all people and was getting massacred! Talk about amazing synchronicity (or perhaps we just share the same B/W TV movie viewing history! LOL).
By the way, I may be wrong, but I remember it as the wind changing, and suddenly his flag is spun around and he doesn’t notice, but of course the opposing lines of troops do!
Kind of Horatio’s problem, really.
It won’t surprise too many here, but Shanahan has actually taken Possum’s comments out of context. At no point did Possum suggest that Nelsons PPM rating of 9% was a major change from the previous Newspoll result, which was 11%. That was Shanahan’s invention.
Possum was actually comparing Nelson’s figures with the worst PPM ratings of previous opposition leaders, including Howard (22%), Downer (21%), and Crean (14%). To have only been in the job for a few months and to never have a PPM rating beyond the teens is a significant point worth commenting on. Indeed, Nelson has “stormed” into the position of opposition leader with the most woeful PPM ratings ever recorded by Newspoll.
Shanahan’s article is clearly dishonest. I can only guess that he is still suffering from the psychological wounds of having blogger after blogger call him on the ridiculous pro-Howard spin that he put on last year’s Newspoll results. This man has a big chip on his shoulder. Why he is still in charge of reporting Newspoll, I do not know. I can only imagine that it is now about entertainment value for the blogosphere. It certainly isn’t about incisive, accurate, honest, and credible reporting.
I think Denis must have read my post from 2 days ago where I pointed out that if the 3% margin of error applied to Nelson’s 9% PPM, then the true figure could just as easily be either 6% or 12%, neither of which flatter Mr Nelson or his performance as Leader of the Opposition to date.
And this here is a quite ridiculous statement without any supporting evidence to back it up.
All in all, I think Denis was stumped for any favourable comment to make in favour of Nelson and the Coalition’s performance to date and decided to fall back on his old tactic of attacking an opponent that can’t hit back through the MSM.
bryce Says: @ 9,
Mate, this would have to be the best discription of Nelson’s position I have seen to date.
Well done!
I think Shannahan hopes the reverse is true.
He may be trying to direct traffic to his own Blog to try and demonstrate that he is still relevant as a commentator.
With the stand he and his colleagues took throughout the 12 months period leading up to the election, the GG’s readership and standing as an influential player on the political scene, sunk to new depths, similar to Nelson’s PPM rating.
I would think that Shannahan is desperately trying to regain some standing with his employer in an attempt to save his job. They desperately need traffic on their web version and Blogs to justify advertisers investment with the GG.
All in all, a very poor attempt at relevance.
I thought Bruce Guthrie said on Jon Faine’s program that Shanahan was going to Washington? The sonner they ship Dennis out and get the Mega man to do Newspoll, the better it will be for everyone.
Scorpio, I think dubbing The Australian the “Government Gazette” is anachronistic given the election results.
You make a good point, GP. It must now be called the Opposition Gazette… nah, that just doesn’t have the same ring. Can anyone think of a more appropriate label?
An excellent analogy, but rather than Lou Costello, I think it was Red Skelton.
Though come to think of it, the famous “Who’s on First, What’s on Second” sketch from Abbot and Costello (the orignals, not the mre recent, lesss successful comedy duo) does sound rather like the curent state of the Liberal Party.
Andos
The Rump Review?
The Toadstill Tribune?
p.s. As editor at large does Paul Kelly ever leave his house? I would understand if he didn’t; the risk of a confusing, potentially career-destroying, confrontation with Reality or Empathy is ever present in the Northern suburbs of Sydney. (Just ask Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott and The Majestically Moochy Knight of the Garter.)
it would appear that dennis has little understanding of statistics/margin of error.
dennis, if you’re listening: you can’t transfer margins of error between polls.
The CC – Conservative Clarion, or Coalition Clarion (or Corn Chip)
The NN – Nelson News
The LL- Liberal Leader
The Woz
Poor old Dennis sounds jealous that Dr Who? actually HAS an approval rating.
Shanahan must surely realise that his tenuous hold on relevance stems from the fact that he is nothing more than a punch line.
While I’m at it, a short memo to Ms Albrechtsen: If a tree falls in a forest…
Barking like dogs into the wind, the lot of ‘em.
Antonio, they’re just hanging out for a few more months to rename themselves the Turnbull Tribune.
i remember this discussion occuring after the election result and maybe just prior….i think the one i liked that came up most was the “opposition orafice”
Who is Dennis Shanahan? I remember we once had a prime minister called John Howards, if my memory serves is correct he came after Keating, is he still alive?
You notice that not much was said by the Oz about the outrageous amount of money wasted on Workchoices propaganda……….100,000 mouse mats… dear oh dear, about as useful as the fridge magnets. I wonder how many bureaucrats were needed to dream up the mouse mat idea.
maybe his lunch with dolly gave him indigestion
In Melbourne there are a group of local newspapers (municipal area based) called the (insert name of local area) Leader which are owned by an ex-Australian media owners company the same as owns The Australian.
Any newspaper called the Liberal Leader would have to be the Brisbane version.
#32,
Yes, I like the Woz
Touche,Antonio!
Well Dennis has got time on his hands and both he and the Oz seem to be a bit short of meaty news today. It doesn’t matter what he says about the blogs, so long as he spells the names right. The old number crunchers will just beaver away entering the boring-as-batshit numbers into their spreadsheets for the next 30 months until something interesting emerges from under the woodwork.
Opposition Oracle. Or possibly Orifice.
It seems that Semoham was having lunch with Dolly Downer yesterday, apparently the topic of discussion was East Timor.
Expect something grubby soon.
That should read Shemoham
“My post on Tuesday’s Newspoll even managed a sarcastic dig at those who paint him as a Coalition stooge.” good on ya
No 44
Naughty naughty. Only a Calabrian would think of that.
44
Frank Calabrese
I heard Dolly say it was with Greg Sheridan.
Who’d have lunch with Shamham? (Sounds like something out of Dr Seuss)
Kr
i was only jesting re shamahan
(frank was refering to yesterdays lunch with sheridan)
I think looking at the perferred PM numbers are a waste of time, the only numbers that matter are the various Parties primary votes and the TPP.
PM’s seem to always be more popular.
At the present the ALP is leading about 57-43 and that is way more relavent than 70% – 9%
I think the most interesting poll numbers is the 68% who supported the Apology
I stand corrected then.
I did have some hope the right wing rag formerly the GG may actually reform into a balanced newspaper and regain its credibility. But it hasn’t taken long for them to fall back to their right wing carping. The usual suspects are unrepentent and nothing seems to be changing.
Just imagine if the opposition actually had a genuine leader – the ex-GG will turn them into JC, the redeemer, the saviour of everything, the only person with the right answers etc.
I notice too that the vast majority of news reports on the ABC website are presented in such a way as to be negative for the Rudd government, indicating the Howard appointed thought police are going into overdrive – the last striking out of those dirty dying snakes.
No 51
Kina, The Australian is a perfectly balanced Newspaper. After all, most of the columnists to which you object are opinion writers. The substantive news articles are hardly the subject of some mysterious right wing agenda.
All the vitriol you all pile onto Albrechtsen and Shanahan is equally applicable to the left wing apologist Phillip Adams.
Kirribilli and Cannon,
Re the civil war sketch. I admit my memory of it, from decades ago, was limited to the essence. I took considerable licence (couldn’t remember actor, setting etc).
Apposite though, eh.
Black And White Rag. With apologies to Winifred Atwell and George Botsford.
53
bryce
Apposite?
Perfectly! LOL
Nice heading William. How long have you been waiting to use that one?
I hope that Dennis retains his job if only for the entertainment that comes in response to his column. Life would sure become boring without his ravings. I wish him luck in retaining his job at the Oz. Having said that he is a dick for sure
Generic Person Says:
February 21st, 2008 at 2:53 pm
No 51
This is a classic example of balance provided by Janet Albrechtson today.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_opposition_has_lost_the_emotional_plot/
Wonderful piece of advice directed towards the Coalition. The main problem with it is that she is a week too late and there is absolutely no guarantee that they would have taken any notice anyhow, such is the strange and disjointed manner in which the Opposition are dealing with the unfortunate situation they now find themselves in. Irrelevancy is not a comfortable place to suddenly find oneself.
I should clarify that I read the Shemoham reference in a post written by Paul Burns in LP, who has since corrected his error.
“Anyone for Dennis?”
No thanks.
Frank Calabrese Says: @ 59,
February 21st, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Today, Frank. Apparently the lunch engagement took all day.
Dolly Downer didn’t deem it worth his while to even turn up for Parliament today. Courtesy of ABC News.
Some chums and I refer to Brisbane’s Courier-Mail as “The Liberal Party Newsletter”. Probably appropriate for The Oz some days now, too.
Dolly was there at question time. They showed him looking totally uninterested while Julia was getting stuck into parties and people who were “out to lunch.”
No 603
Yes, but when Mr Rudd was so insolent so as to ignore the Parliament whilst in Opposition, that was okay. Oh, the irony.
Thankfully, she can be entertaining.
No one can accuse Downer of being of touch. At least not in person, anywhere near his place of employment.
After reading Shamaham’s article and seeing Dolly’s doorstop interview at Parliament i can only assume there was a sidebet who could make the biggest knob of themself this week.
Edit: out.
Downer should do the honourable thing and resign now.
Can’t be bothered turning up for parliament and when he does can’t be bothered answereing questions.
Downer’s no show and the other libs no shows of the apology, Mirabella, Randall et al raises an interesting questions re allowances.
These fearless liberal representatives get paid an allowance for every day parliament is sitting (as do other parliamentarians), regardless I presume of whether or not they are in the house as long as they are in the city?
Surely if they had principles they would stay away from the city itself and thus not claim this allowance otherwise it looks totally cynical behaviour on their part.
If lord downer cannot be bothered i’d be happy to take his bankbencher job…..not that i’m a liberal supporter, i have zero political experience (beside watching q time on tv)……..but surely i could do a better job for Australia then someone who cannot even b bothered turning up…..i might even come up with some policy ideas……or think of ways of improving nelsons approval rating
Simple solution, for every day Downer fails to turn up to work, dock his pay.
If he misses more then 5 days without a good reason, sack him.
Better yet, put him on an AWA whilst they still exist. No fairness test, as he doesn’t believe it was necessary.
So today we have Telstra announcing it has exceeded its profit expectations making $1.9 billion for the last 6 months of 2007.
Then Qantas announces it has more than doubled its profit in spite of soaring fuel costs.
And as company after company announces unrestrained profit…employees are repeatedly being told to exercise wage restraint.
FG – it all seems so 1908. Are we moving in 100 year cycles? Here’s hoping McCain doesn’t have control of a military in the middle of the next decade.
William
If i may add about the Tasmania redistribution. The TEC has already completed its initial proposal for the upper house redistribution. Happened a month or so ago and the link has a pretty picture showing the new proposed boundries.
http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/pages/LegislativeRedistribution.html
As i do not wish to futher interupt the Dennis Shanahan baswhing, maybe a seperate thread is in order?
As you were ladies and gents!
Look this is a bit crude and wordy but the best and most accurate new title for “The Austrlaian” is “Great Big Heap of Shit News Staffed by Overratted Lazy Fascist Journos” and I must say the Poison Dwarf is getting off lightly in blog land.
70
asanque – attending Question Time is not comparatively speaking necessary in fulfilling your requirements as an MP Backbencher, had Downer not turned up for a Committee that would be far more serious. I cant blame Downer for not wanting to hear Gillard’s shrill voice talk about Workchoices for hours on end i doubt even the Laborites would want to hear that.
asanque if you feel like punishing somebody how about docking Gillard’s pay for wasting the Parliaments time with parroting on about Workchoices and flouting standing orders for continually using props in answering her dorothy dixers!
75 – Downer is just proving himself to be a petulant git. Not that he cares as he is leaving as soon as he finds some company dumb enough to take him.
If we were to dock Gillard’s pay for that, we should dock Howard and his front bench for the last 11 years for their incompetency, lack of policies and dorothy dixers everywhere.
I also disagree that the Tasmanian redistribution will not change any electoral chances. The most likley booths to go to Lyons are probably labor’s best larger booths in Franklin. Bridgewater, Gagebrook and maybe even Risdon Vale if moved to Lyons would significantly shrink the margin in Franklin. In turn this would make Lyons much safer. this may result in a pre selection in Lyons as Dick Adams personal vote is no longer needed to win that seat.
I don’t blame Dolly for missing question time. Having to listen to Gillard’s winy voice needs a lot of motivation. I am sure if she had an afro style hair cut, Gillard could pass as the sister of Kath from Kath & Kim.
After having 11 years of the perks of government Dolly is finding it a hard boring slog on the backbench , he should do everyone a favour and resign now and take his other disinterested dinosaurs backbenchers with him.
“Oh I didn’t see an iceberg, I was standing on deck and I didn’t see an iceberg”
Ahahahahahahahha!!!! Oh god, that’s Priceless
I wonder which Lib Clarke was impersonating when he said that
If Downer resigns soon he has provided with some ammunition for getting rid of him. Sitting in a restaurant at taxpayers expense is not a good look.
Another father-son hand me down who has never worked hard in his life.
marky mind you words mate, he is the longest serving Foreign Minister in Australian history and you reckon he never worked hard in his life…bah!
GP 51
The Australian is a perfectly balanced Newspaper. After all, most of the columnists to which you object are opinion writers. The substantive news articles are hardly the subject of some mysterious right wing agenda.
So it’s only opinion pieces that convey opinion? What tripe. ‘Substantive’ news articles are riddled with opinion. Then there’s the selection of what counts as news and what is given prominence. (Like the Brian Burke nonsense, which has disappeared from sight but has been getting front-page billing in the Australian).
80
Mr Squiggle
I heard Daw mention Downer and the other prop was Carbuncle Joe!
Downer crucially delivered SA support for Howard from day one (club SA). This was clear when Howard was elected. It continued until late last year.
Downer was inept as Foreign minister when appointed and was inept and embarrassing, monumentally, for year after year – and this is the explanation for his “longevity”. Hardly his ability!
If Costello had become PM, Downer wouldn’t have even been on the front bench.
David Walsh (#3) is spot on.
The sampling error depends on the degree of uniformity of the population. The sampling error is maximum when the population attributes are split 50-50 and decreases as the proportions move away from 50-50. When Dennis says that the margin of error for a sample size of 1140 is 3% he is referring to the maximum error. However, if a population attribute is around 10% then the margin of error is only 1.7%.
So it would seem that Dr Nelson’s popularity drop of 2% is not inside the margin of error after all.
Unicorn, I’m sure that makes sense to a number of people on this site, but I haven’t a clue what you’re talking about when you’re talking about population attribute and that being assigned at some particular percentage rate. Please indulge someone who struggles with this stuff. Would appreciate some explanation in lay terms.
Harry, Sorry, I’m better with numbers than with words.
If we are sampling for the two party preferred vote then each person sampled be recorded as either ALP or LNP. This is what I mean by attribute. They are either one or the other. In this case since the true proportions are generally around 50-50 it is correct to say that the margin of error is 3%.
In the case of Dr Nelson’s popularity the attribute we are sampling for is the proportion of people who prefer Dr Nelson as PM. In this case each person being sampled is classified as either (a) preferring Dr Nelson or (b) not preferring Dr Nelson. What I am saying is that since the proportion in category (a) is only about 10% the margin of error is a lot less than it would be if the proportion was around 50%.
Dennis Shanahan is another news-bore if you ask me. Were it not for the alertness of bludgers here, I could pass from one year to the next and never bother to read his irrelevancies.
Why is it, i ask myself out loud, that some people seem to think they have so much to say, when in fact they have nothing much to add to anything. It must be a way to make a living, i spose, being pompous, verbose, inaccurate, self-serving and annoying all at the same time…
Harry, it seems that Nelson is the closest person to achieving a consensus yet.
Imagine if he was universally rejected with no sampling error.
http://nhts.ornl.gov/1995/courseware/Useable_Nav3_18_27.html
What is interesting about the excerpt above, of course, is the spreading fame of possum, william and the bludgers. This could mean blogdom is the home of the new intelligentsia: what a harrowing thought.
Very good work, Unicorn. I’ve added an update to the post noting your observation (props also to David Walsh).
Thanks, William.
The other thing I could have added is this occurs because the formula for the margin of error includes the term p(1-p) where p is the population proportion of the attribute being sampled. The value of p that maximizes this expression is 0.5
eg p = 0.5 p(1-p) = 0.25
p=0.4 or 0.6 p(1-p) = 0.24
…..
p=0.1 or p=0.9 p(1-p) = 0.09
Calling it “The 9% Narative” should last till after the next two elections
Well Unicorn, glad I was here to see that explanation, I am impressed.
Greg Hunt on Lateline, twisting language and what his party believes in- actually i have no idea what his believes in regard to climate change are.
Labor is already through spin trying to state that it is all to hard to act now so we will do it very slowly. Put simply if you have children their future is bleak.
well Steve , horatio has issued a press release challenging unicorn’s credibility
as he feels the MOE has been miscalculated by him. Malcolm did the sums
Mr Bowe, Chris Mitchell on the line for you…
I would have thought most labor people having seen the Polls show 50 consecutive big margins for Rudd & then face the famous ‘narrowing’ in the last 48 hours were far from impressed.
The pollsters claims of oh well previous Polls generally had a 3% MOE may be regarded by many a bull
Ron,
That last minute narrowing was a bit spooky, wasn’t it? But I actually think it was real – ie there really were 2-3% of the population who liked Rudd and thought Howard was past it, but who at the last minute just didn’t/couldn’t vote Howard out.
I think that is more likely than the alternative explanation – which is that the polls were wrong all along, exaggerating the ALP vote (2PP) by roughly 3% (on average).
A few interesting statistics taken from Dennis Shanahan’s Blog.
For the last 10 articles he has averaged 46.9 comments.
The lowest figure was 11 and the average was inflated somewhat by the highest number of comments which was 74.
Today’s article is running at 39 comments which is a considerable improvement from yesterday’s which was 12.
All in all, I would suggest that Dennis is certainly struggling for relevancy even when he posts articles which are intended to be controversial but are no longer being responded to.
It serves him right for not allowing any comments that have been critical of his one-eyed stances throughout the previous 12 months.
99 Ron be that as it may, the claim by Sham-I am in this case is that Nelson has dropped to 9% from 11%. This 2% drop was less than the 3% margin of error, he claimed.
What David Walsh and Unicorn have both shown is that the margin of error is actually 1.7%. Sham-I-am’s two percent is obviously not within the margin of error as he claimed and why he bothered to write the article is a mystery.
And frankly, the issue is whether PPM was the right question anyway.
Nelson’s 40% approval rating, although still pretty poor, is probably a more relevant number for a poll taken at the end of apology week.
Another interesting issue about the Australian’s on-line Blog site is the strange disappearance of Caroline Overington from her site.
Her last posting was 2 days prior to the election, 24th November.
There has been no explanation from her boss as to why she has been absent and whether or not she is to return or been given the Channel 9 treatment.
She just might have been relegated to the reserve bench to be brought out in time for the next election to assist in Turnbull’s campaign.
All in all, I really do miss her entertaining contribution to the political scene.
yes I take your point Steve. Its just that the sudden Poll shift between 18/11 & 23/11 left me bemused & frustrated.
Dyno’s point is a good one that maybe some swinging Rudd to be voters then could not change from Howard when Polled on the eve. Maybe the questions don’t identify the degree of solid & soft voting intentions ?
perhaps Caroline being punished for that George Newhouse fracas
All a worry, Scorpio.
Albrechsten is holding the fort, though in a somewhat chastened fashion, I think.
Beware Sam Maiden though. A long time Liberal lover. Or should Caroline beware of Sam?
My local Radio Nat, MattnDave have long loved their morning media political contributors. Tony Wright, Sam Maiden in his absence. Never noticed a substitute who had a Labor lean.
Defended, did they, Caroline. To the hilt. As a worthy journalist at her low, perhaps even est, point. With remarkable reverence, piety and every nuance intended to sway the listening audience.
And our ABC is pro Labor? Not on that program.
105 Ron, it could also have been the advantage of incumbency, having staff to send out the absentee and postal votes with Tory propaganda is a huge plus. Glen, Howard and Senator Minchin were all convinced that the coalition was going to win on preferences so obvious was the advantage to them.
This has left the coalition with a lot of low hanging fruit for the taking at the next poll where the system will be to their disadvantage in 2010. Having the starters cracker in your hand is another big help. The opposition side have to guess the starting date while the Government knows.
Crikey Whitey , Rupert certainly was not impressed with Caroline’s antics & indicated disapproval.
Reading the published transcripts she seemed to have gone over the line and using satire allows one to retrospectively use satire as the defence
“This has left the coalition with a lot of low hanging fruit for the taking at the next poll”
….and we’ll gladly take it ! Hope John Faulkner or Tony Albanese rectifys the abuse of postals where the applications can go via the Party’s office etc as well as the unfair tightening of the pre polls definition
110 Is Caroline back from swanning around Paris yet? Heard she went over to sort out some rioters after the practice she had on election day.
Oh, and Ron. To my disgust, apropos my post on previous thread (loving Nicole), I hear on Tomorrow’s News that Kevin Foley is publically and to a wide audience castigating us as ‘whingers.’
Not, I think that you are a Nicole fan, but really, could Foley shut up!
Steve @ 108,
You have made a good point there.
I was quite surprised at how quickly and by how much the Labor 2 PP vote plummeted once the absentee and postal vote counts started to be accounted for.
It was surprising just how much of the absent and postal vote that the Coalition picked up given that there was no indication from the lead-up polls that that would happen.
Especially so since the postals and pre-polls were submitted prior to the polling date when the polls were showing a substantial lead to the ALP.
One must therefore conclude that the Coalition efforts in chasing postal and prepoll votes was very intense and successful.
I would have to agree with you that incumbency does seem an advantage with gaining support from postal voters as the ALP in Government were the masters at securing good returns in that regard.
I had considerable experience in that regard on behalf of the ALP and get the feeling that Labor operatives have taken their eyes off the ball somewhat in that regard in the past 8 or 9 years and the Coalition have filled the void left.
Quite a number of their current members would be very grateful for that in that it was these votes that resulted in them just scraping over the line. They may not be as fortunate next time if the ALP picks up its game and uses the advantages of incumbency to more actively chase up these votes.
absolutely Crikey.
I’ve never expressed an opinion at all before on Nicole mainly because I feel she
tried her best for the ALP & was severely savaged by the media.
I thought the media took the cheap shot at Nicole rather than responsibly question the process & criteria the ALP used to select the candidate for Boothby. Those ALP guys (who still remain publicly nameless) are the ones that got off lightly
Yes, Scorpio. I refer you, as I did Ron, to my post on the previous (Australia) thread.
Encouragingly, in compensation for Labor dunces, ABC News just reported that Alan Stockdale is elected as the new leader of the Liberal operatives. Long live the King, as they say.
glad you were involved previously Scorpio. Are you generally saying the posting of Postal vote Applications via the respective party’s offices is still an advantage to the encumbant Government or suggesting there are different advantages for postals for the encumbant ?
Crikey Whitey Says: @ 112,
Crikey, he’s probably been talking to Generic Person who seems to think that we are all a bunch of whingers and that we don’t appreciate GP having a whinge back at us.
The only problem with GP is that’s all he ever does. I did posts on this at 607 and 616 in the Newspoll thread, but I don’t think he has read them yet as there hasn’t been any explosive return mail forthcoming so far.
Or maybe he has read them and has pulled his head in a little after considering the points I raised about his method of responding to other posters.
Ron, they are not nameless. ‘They’ are Kevin Foley. But it was someone else who took the blame. In public. Labor operative, responsible for such matters. Cannot recall his name. Greek.
Scorpio. I am sorry to say that GP has nothing to do with it. He would no doubt be delighted.
In case you are not aware, Kevin Foley is the South Australian Deputy Premier, Treasurer, Minister for Industry and Trade, Minister for Federal/State Relations (just copied that from the website)
Labor, obviously.
Constantly in bother for outstanding bad behaviour.
sorry guys my replys crossed.
Crikey absolutely Foley should shut up. My sense is there were others also responsible for placing Nicole in that position which I thought was grossly unfair
to Nicole. if a person is not quite experienced then its the manager who decided who made the wrong call
Steve
“Or maybe he has read them and has pulled his head in a little after considering the points I raised about his method of responding to other posters.”
Steve , I hope you are right & one could add ESJ , but doubt it I’m afraid
Scorpio,
My hunch is that a lot of these come from retirement villages,nursing homes,etc…have anecdotal but no hard figures.
coincidently Megan my feelings are the same as yours
…anecdotal but no firm info
And further on the Foley. I don’t really appreciate being hit around the head by my Labor bouncer type. Not really working, for me. Perhaps wrongly I may think, Foley made his address to an audience present due to the Adelaide Solar Conference, attended by luminaries and speakers from across the world.
And someone told me earlier ,that MattnDave had pointed out the irony that Adelaide is at this very same moment holding the Clipsal car racing thing, whatever it is, consuming zillions of petrol, space, emitting etc.
Whinging, I know.
Also those of various religious organisations who observe the Sabbath on a Saturday, both J*ewi*h and Seventh Day Adventists – who lean towards conservative Govts.
Ron, advantage was gained from operatives using local knowledge about who would be most likely to require a postal vote and using information on prior postal voting habits from the electoral commission.
By far the biggest advantage was by chasing up postal voters on a personal basis. A friendly, helpful person from the local Branch was a big plus, especially if the intending postal voter knew that person. They usually did because the same people undertook to chase up postals election after election.
Similarly for pre-poll stations. The ALP Branch Members used to ensure that these booths were manned all day every day right from the opening of pre-poll booths until they closed just prior to the election.
From my observations, that has slipped considerably in recent elections. I remember manning a booth at an island resort a number of years ago for the ALP.
As the voters there were almost all absentee voters, they appreciated that the ALP were the only party thoughtful enough to provide a booth worker there.
In appreciation of the help offered in identifying candidates in their respective electorates, they chose to provide a 100% vote to Labor from that one booth.
thx Scorpio ….was not aware of those skills & techniques used so well
it makes your earlier post very compelling positve advice for the ALP
The nursing homes etc Megan re Scorpio.
Do you mean to imply irregularity?
I reported on a perceived irregularity in a Boothby nursing home. MayoFeral and another poster, whose identity escapes me, responded to my first mention on Pollbludger. The mysterious case of the votes and the nursing home.
Whilst nothing is yet known about the perceived irregularities, I am pleased to report that I have in my hand a clipping from today’s paper reporting that the owner of the nursing home has lost his accreditation and that the home is being taken over by another organisation. The loss of accreditation is not due to electoral matters, far more serious and recently mysterious, coroner and all.
Crikey Whitey, From something you said some time back, I believe you live quite near my inlaws.
My brother and sister in law live in Boothby also so I know where Nicole gained at least 5 votes.
Ah! I think I can name it, seeing as it has been on TV, the papers and so on. It is Brighton Retirement Home, I think now called. Formerly St Catherine’s. Name changed to protect the owners. Corner of Brighton Road and Mills St.
It was all proper and beyond reproach when I was involved Crikey, but I have strong suspicions in regard to the manner in which the NLP operatives go about things.
I suppose filling out ballot papers on behalf of frail, elderly people especially those suffering from dementia etc is only being helpful, but I am in no way in favour of it.
I strongly suspect that the LNP have no qualms about helping out as much as possible and in no way could they be considered to be helping themselves to a clutch of easy votes.
{It is Brighton Retirement Home,]
Yeah, lovely poeple running it. Doctors, I believe.
Scorpio, I hunted in my computer for my first, well, allegation, but I have no record. Fool, am I. It is in William, somewhere, so I will locate it.
In sum, I discerned that something like 170 votes were recorded for the home, not in Nicole’s favor. I rang the home to ascertain the exact number of resident capacity. Something like, cripes, fifty or sixty. I reported this to Chloe Fox, State Member for Bright.
Yeah, it is only a small operation. Certainly nowhere near 170 inmates there for sure.
I think around the 60 mark may even be a bit high.
With a bit of digging around, I think you could find similar situations right around the country.
Dennis Shanahan’s latest Blog.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/welcome_to_the_world/
I am more concerned about former ministers who become diplomats. The amount of taxpayers money spent to ensure that people like Mandy are afforded the luxury to which they are unaccustomed is appalling.
Whatever, Scorpio, I had the exact figures. And 50 is likely close.
The other poster and I were having an occasional exchange about the potential for
mmmh, ‘rigging’ votes in aged care facilities. Which ultimately led to my examination of homes in my area.
Brighton was outstanding, as it had no associate homes.
And yes, it is, now was, owned and run by a married couple, both doctors. Who were in trouble before, and more deeply recently, as they certified a cause of death of a resident, called into question by the nurses, but unable to be taken further, as the deceased was cremated.
Now, legally, no wrongdoing can be imputed. But. The Coroner had cause to be disturbed at the conflict of interest, though no law was broken.
I assume that pressure has been applied, via HAAC if not others. Resulting in loss of accreditation. Sale of asset.
A friend of mine had worked in that home, a couple of years ago, as the sole nurse on overnight duty.
She refused to return.
And before I forget, Scorpio, I live near the Brighton Jetty just back from the Esplanade. Esplanade Pub nearerst. I’ll look out for your brother. Does he wear a rose in his lapel?
I can understand that, considering concent was given to allow that cremation “PRIOR” to any Death Certificate being issued by – a Doctor who runs the place. Mmmmm
In-law. No, he’s not into flowers. He lives not far from the Sailing Club.
Used to spend time crabbing on the old jetty when he was younger.
The in-laws live on Broadway.
Broadway? South Brighton, my former family home. Tell him I am a McKeen.
Had a number of schooners of Coopers there last time we were down.
Must catch up with you next time and either have a few pots or a coffee at Marylin’s or the place on the corner.
They would know you because they were one of the first to move in there when the estate opened.
Everyone was Aunt or Uncle. My wife is ringing her parents tomorrow and I will get her to mention you to them.
Results will be on-line tomorrow evening, sorry, this evening.
Cheers, I think it is a bit past my bed time and I need some beauty sleep.
In my case, probably a lot.
Truly amazing. I will look tomorrow night.
My wife is still awake and remembers the name although she has been gone from there for many years.
Did your parents move to WA?
Crickey, don’t get me wrong, love your politics, and agree with most of your views.
But I feel I have to ask you, are you related to Yoda? The linguistic similarities are profound.
I am not quite sure what is happening in this country, but things appear to be tipped somewhat upside down since the election.
Decided to fully read the latest Blog by Shanahan and was shocked to find that it is probably the best article he has written for ages. And reasonably balanced too.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/welcome_to_the_world/
Welcome to the world alright. He’s trying very hard to be noticed at the moment.
Way to go (some).
No, Scorpio, my parents are dead and the house at 1 Broadway, just a little back from Brighton Road, has been torn down and replaced by some modern debacles, about a year ago. I am one of twelve children, hence a certain infamy in the street. The Delahuntys, Lewises, Edwards, Aitchsons, Asshetons, Dykes, Whites are or were closest. Though numerous others up the street were known.
Fulvio, don’t know. Who is Yoda?
Doesn’t matter Crickey, just my silly joke. Yoda was a character from the Skywars movies who mangled his English by frequently putting his verbs after his nouns.
Poor Janet Albrechtson has been copping an awful pasting on her Blog.
Some of the best comments I have come across are tearing right into her and are well worth a read. Guaranteed.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/janetalbrechtsen/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_opposition_has_lost_the_emotional_plot/P25/
Oh how the mighty fall.
Crikey, the in-laws live just the other side of the little park.
I’ll get back to you this evening.
Love to meet up with Tim Dunlop next time we come down too. He doesn’t live all that far away either.
Well, Scorpio, beyond the little park, Dover Square, where I played tennis, is stretching it. Two families beyond there I recollect knowing. I was caught stealing almonds by the owners, just before the square, as a child.
Do you know Tim Dunlop? I do not. Not that it matters. Great idea. Catch you this evening.
Fulvio, I will try to work out what I am doing wrong. If I am. Sad to imagine that linguistic jungle jims provided Yoda with fame and possibly fortune, while I, I am nothing. Oh well.
edit “starwars”. Foolish I am.
That’s okay, Fulvio. I would not really know, anyway.
I’m just going to look for my little trophy, Junior Tennis Champion, Dover Square.
Good Night, all.
I have noticed no one has yet touched on the most important issue running at the moment. I wonder why it is being ignored? Is it being censored? Is there a conspiracy at the pollbludger to keep it from being discussed? Of all the issues running at the moment, this one is being frozen out. Why?
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23251983-662,00.html
I know they are very serious charges I have made and I willing to risk being suspended from pollpludger to make sure the big issues are covered.
154
Chris B
Wait a second, while everyone has been fixated on Horatio Hornet’s MOE, that great antipodean Ann Coulter, that virago of the right and Howardista she-whippett, the fearless cultural warrior Miranda Devine has again charged in to do battle once more.
She is unstoppable, despite the political death of her erstwhile champion, so yesterday she once again made a valiant lunge for the right.
Her topic in yesterday’s SMH? Be afraid, because she’s taking on mothers with double size, wide load, A380 prams! Yes, women who want to push around their twins in Pramborghinis and expect to get them down the aisle of Sydney buses!
This must be stopped, and Miranda, ever vigilant, will challenge these ‘aspirational’ chariot drivers to her last breath.
And you thought the Culture Wars were finished and the Right vanquished?
Well think again. Miranda has you in her sights.
(Can we expect Horatio Hornet and Fluffer to take up this challenge in the Parliament? Stay tuned!)
156 KR Typical side stepping the important issues.
Small world, my parents knew yours, and I once stayed at your place when my sister was born – 53 years ago.
154 Chris B tread carefully, egg on face is never a good look. Just hope that the good Dr Diogenes is not lurking around.
ref to Crikey Whitey @ 147
Poor Dennis has gone from mildly relevant (government spruiker) to irrelevant. His blog is never popular because apart from the screening of reponses, he does not reply or engage in the discussion. I dont bother reading or posting any more, let his blogs just fade into oblivion
How I miss Matt Price…
159 steve I am willing to stake my reputation on this. In spite of the threats. Next minute William will ask me to stay on topic.
Chris B, Diogenes told the story of venturing into a bookshop a couple of days ago and reading the Ralph Magazine article. There have been so many threads on all sorts of topics lately I just can’t point you to the relevant posts but I can assure you it has had an adequate airing on one of the recent threads.
163 steve I’m having trouble keeping a straight face.
So is the lacklustre Mr 9%
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/nelson-snubs-tour-of-indigenous-area/2008/02/21/1203467322783.html
A NSW Minister, Phil Koperberg has resigned .
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/iemma-confirms-koperberg-resignation/2008/02/22/1203467331269.html
If you missed Clarke and Dawe last night catch it at http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2169137.htm
It’s a classic.
Thing that amazes me about Dennis’s recent column is that we have 168 people claiming on this blog that they understood what he was on about. I confess I didn’t have a clue. I think the rest of you are fibbing.
168 ViggoP Thanks for that, it’s so funny it brought tears to my eyes.
169 [I confess I didn’t have a clue.]
Don’t feel bad about that Alan, turns out that Sham-I-am never had a clue. He is the master of delusion but once he fools himself that badly, it can only end in confusion.
Good to see the ABC not missing any opportunities this morning
Rudd under fire over Indigenous visit
Rudd to skip Parliament for Walgett visit
Rudd ‘wasting money’ by skipping Parliament
Parliament a ‘farce’ under new rules: Hockey
165 steve Their mock indignation is hilarious. They are so desperate to change the subject they will create something out of nothing. The trouble is it looks fake. The Tampa may have worked once, but the Liberals will keep crying wolf.
174 It astounds me that the one thing Liberals seem to dislike above all all else is having to sit in parliament. A Gold Coast Liberal got himself turfed out of parliament yesterday because beach conditions are good on the Gold Coast at present, apparently.
steve
Come the next election we should be able to arrange for a few more of them to spend time on the beach.
Kina
ther sad bleatings are soon to cease
(time for a few board members to check their eligibilty methinks)
also friends of the abc are preparing submission for cabinet
Steve,
Isn’t it amazing how someone like Nelson, who is clearly deemed irrelevant by 91% of the population, decides to make it a full house and make himself irrelevant to the remaining 9%.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/nelson-snubs-tour-of-indigenous-area/2008/02/21/1203467322783.html
177 Scorpio, I think he is just trying to drive his Newspoll figures down so he can hand the job on to someone else. He knows from Howard how hard it is to give the job away but as he approaches zero Turbull will have to step up and receive the poisoned chalice.
Turnbull thought he was going to be safe for eighteen months or so but his day is fast approaching. It is a smart piece of political thinking by Nelson to ensure his name is not tarnished for too long. He can then go back to the backbench and join Costello in sleeping while the next leader rushes towards a zero ppm.
Steve,
There is probably far more truth to that statement than you may realise.
I have just been watching the tail end of proceedings in the Reps up until the Deputy Speaker found herself in an untenable position and suspended the house.
The performance of the opposition has been puerile to say the least.
Luke Hartsutker – Member for Cowper – nor only LOOKS like a village idiot, he IS one!
That’s what I’d be doing if I was him. He is so close to achieving it that it is almost moving from dream to reality. Turnbull must be on his knees praying for a turnaround in Nelson’s figures.
Crikey Whitey, re your post 625 on the Newspoll thread.
Clearly, there was enough evidence, prior to the last Federal election that there was no longer such a thing as an “unwinable” seat or a “safe” seat.
This was demonstrated clearly in the case of Howard, who lost his even though he was PM, and the major scare experienced by Hockey, Turnbull etc.
There were many seats that the ALP could have picked up with a bit more attention paid to individual seat campaigning.
In the case of Boothby, it was there for the taking and you are right, they should be condemned for the manner in which they approached that campaign and the level of support that they extended to Nicole.
By the time they woke up out of their slumber and realised that there were seats like Boothby, just ripe for the plucking, it was too late and the sitting Members, backed by a desperate “marginal seat campaign” by the LNP were just able to hang on.
Some of the blame can be pointed to what we discussed last night in regard to the postal, pre-poll and absent vote strategy also. A lot, in fact.
180 BK, seems like Rudd has snookered the Liberals once again into appearing to be a leaderless raqbble. It is a very common thing that when work is mentioned the resistance of the Liberals reaches its high point. Friday is not a good day to get the Liberals to work, it brings out the juvenile traits in them.
Steve,
I couldn’t agree more. The Libs may be over-reaching with the antics. Harry Jenkins in the Chair must be building up quite a head of steam and may act with even more vigour than he did this morning when he got the Sergeant-at-Arms to eject a Liberal member.
184 But BK the day is so warm and the surf so good at the Gold Coast today. I’m just surprised more Liberals weren’t ejected.
185 Steve – It was interesting to see Mr 9% just sitting there mute while all the shennannigans were going on around home. What a leader!!
186 BK I think he is pining for an easier liestyle and he is within 9% of achieving his goal.
BK @ 184,
I think the Liberals have totally misread what Harry Jenkins was trying to achieve in improving the decorum and effectiveness of Parliament.
They saw it as a sign of weakness and an opportunity to try and dominate parliamentary proceedings in the manner they did for 12 years.
Unfortunately for them, they are so out of touch and are missing a golden opportunity to present themselves as a capable alternative government.
Instead they are just re-enforcing the public’s fast growing awareness of their abject inability and incompetence. How I love it.
There’s no accounting for stupidity, is there.
188 Scorpio – Yes, I just cannot understand the stupid direction the Libs are taking. Underestimating Jenkins is a BIG, BIG mistake.
Disorder in the house, well considering the disorder in the Opposition it’s not really surprising, is it?
What a rabble of a rump they are, and to think, just a few months back they wanted Australia to vote them back to ‘govern’! LOL
Yeah, right!
185 Steve – It was interesting to see Mr 9% just sitting there mute while all the shennannigans were going on around home. What a leader!!
Yeah, BK. Nelson has had that “stunned mullet” look about him since the first day of sittings.
It’s as though he is bewildered by what’s happening around him and has no idea of what his parliamentary operatives are going to come up with next.
When Hockey, Turnbull or Bishop rise and head for the Dispatch Box, there is always a surprised, questioning look on Nelson’s face as though he doesn’t have a clue of what is happening or what will come next.
Great leader. Yeah. He must have been asleep for the past 12 years during Parliamentary sittings.
191 Scorpio – Do you, or anybody else, have any idea what the Member for Cowper is doing on the Opposition Front Bench?
KR @ 190,
All those Lib supporters who were only months ago, mouthing off at every opportunity about what a fantastic team they were and bagging Labor’s inexperience, have gone horribly quiet in the past few weeks.
The Coalition are more than an embarrassment now if you ask me. Heads down, man the parapets, surrender!
BK, it is probably as Deputy Leader of Opposition Business that he is most visible.
Shadow Minister for Business Development, Independent Contractors and Consumer Affairs from 6.12.07.
Deputy Leader of Opposition Business in the House from 6.12.07.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/members/member.asp?ID=AMM
194 Stev – yes thanks, but what capabilities got him there?????
Luke? He’s a National. Their 10 Members contribution gets them close to a front bench job each.
G*d the Libs are stupid aren’t they. Most of the Nat’s are incapable of making a decent cup of tea, let alone operate as an effective MP.
How the Libs can allow any of them on the front bench, let alone some of their own, is a mystery to all.
195 Click on Biography and read his first speech and you will know more about him than most people in Australia.
The old cardboard cut out job.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2169665.htm
195 Click on Biography and read his first speech and you will know more about him than most people in Australia.]
You will probably know more about him than he does.
199 Scorpio – I just read his bio and first speech. You have a point!
Mr Ciobo doesn’t happen to live on the Gold Coast does he?
ironic that Turnbull NOW may be trying to support Nelson supporters that it all will be OK ?
To have had this rabble under such tight control JWH must have had lots of pictures – and negatives!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2169665.htm
Isn’t Mr Ciobo the brother in-law of “Luke” of Jo Bjelke Petersen Jury Forman fame?
No surprises there!
the liberals really are humiliating themselves now. If there’s a stereotyped politician in the australian psyche it’s the childish self-absorbed one and the liberals are dancing in the sandpit with it. Meanwhile Kevin will be pictured on TV visiting aboriginal communities and generally being the useful statesman he has already been so far.
i am finding it delightful
Apparently, the real Brendan Nelson turned up. But everyone thought he was a cardboard cut out too.
Another version here.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/speaker-tears-into-mp-over-rudd-cutout/2008/02/22/1203467354206.html
The Libs are an embarrassment. They sound and look like kids who can’t get their own way so progressively get louder and do more ridiculous antics until someone pays attention. They just don’t get that they lost the last election and don’t have control anymore (thank heavens).
GG, that’s the new LNP mascot, since they’ve not been able to rally behind the mercurial Horatio and his sidekick Fluffy (The AWA Slayer!).
And what better? A guy who’s REALLY popluar, knows what he wants, and inspires Australians and the rest of the world to think well of this country.
Yep, a life-size Kevin Rudd is just what they need in the front row.
New thread up on Morgan leadership poll.
More on Ciobo from the ABC site.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2169665.htm
What a rabble the opposition has become. Any sensible person who isn’t normally inclined to support one party over another will be leaning Rudd’s way now. Only one-eyed coalition supporters could think that the scenes in parliament today will benefit their cause. Nelson, Abbot, Bishop and Co couldn’t organise a chook raffle let alone run the country. I guess that Abbot was behind today’s ‘Chaser style’ stunt. He is a walking disaster and I hope his political career continues for many years to come.
At least today’s ‘Chaser Style’ stunt actually used oversized props…
I seem to remember the Liberal government criticising Labor in 2006 for using props in parliament. Have they changed their minds?
Once again, the rabble that passes for the Federal Parliamentary Liberal Party just don’t get it. They don’t understand that they lost the election and lost government. They don’t control the House of Reps. They don’t set the agenda. They are a leaderless group of nobodies with nothing better to do than grandstand over an issue they made an art form out of rorting and corrupting when they were in power. Their record of running the House was a disgrace and yet they have the effrontery to complain about the changes made. Hockey is truly a hypocritical, fat slob who should be appearing on the Biggest Loser, not the Biggest Oaf in Canberra.
Don’t know if it is the full moon or just some silly people saying silly things but one of the Brisbane City Council Mayoral candidates has gone for the big profile lift in one day.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/mayoral-candidate-not-sorry-for-rape-joke/2008/02/22/1203467346807.html
LOL, sorry just read the news on the roudy parliament.
After watching the “first cut” video segment on the ABC website, I have to say that the Deputy Speaker is pathetic.
The Deputy Speaker is new to the job and will benefit from the experience. What is pathetic is the behaviour of the highly experienced members in opposition who carry on like spoilt children.
No 218
I could say the same about Ms Gillard’s workchoices antics.
219
Your point? The fact of the matter is that a member of parliament displayed open contempt for the speaker in an incident that last 10 minutes before he was forcibly removed from the chamber. I guess that’s just an inconvenient truth that you can handle.
And you claim to support democracy.
While the coalition clowns spit their collection dummy the PM continues working on improving life for the nation’s original inhabitants:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2170216.htm?section=justin
Many thanks to Unicorn back at 88 and Steve at 90 for your helpful responses, Unicorn, you explained it sufficiently well for me to understand!
A brush-tailed possum with at least five arrows in its carcass was found at the Dru Point Reserve at Margate, south of Hobart.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/02/22/2170421.htm
does dennis live in tassie?