Comments on: Apple sliced

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Tue, 15 Apr 2008 15:53:02 +0000

Not quite as bad for Parkinson as I thought – on my modelling the redistribution if accepted causes about a 4.5% swing from him to the Greens, reducing his 62.5% 2CP from last election to about 58. Not marginal, although a strong Green candidate might make it so.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Mon, 14 Apr 2008 05:01:43 +0000

Further proposal has now been released following the first round of public comments (online at http://www.electoral.tas.gov.au/)

The most important change from the initial proposals concerns the current Wellington, which is proposed to be renamed back to Hobart. The revised version removes Lutana and Moonah (among the least Green areas of the current seat) and adds the balance of South Hobart and Turnip Fields (extremely Green areas of adjacent Nelson).

It will be interesting to see if Labor objects though I am not sure what basis they would have for doing so as this redistribution makes much more sense than the initial version. I have not yet crunched the numbers on it but I would not be surprised if this (if adopted) makes the seat marginal and sets up a serious Labor/Greens bunfight for it in 2012.

By: Scotty

Scotty — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 09:56:08 +0000

Yeah Ex New Nolfolk Local it does play a significant part. I guess i just don’t like being called unimportant

Hehe Kevin Bonham i noticed poor Richard James didn’t even make deputy mayor. My point About Richie is i didnt vote for her cause the govt was pissing me off even though i have nothing against her. I just assumed perhaps a few hunndred other people did too but i guess we will never know. I did have second thoughts though and she is probably better than alot of those other right wing nut jobs on there. I guess i am kinda glad she is still there as they will probably be in opposition after the next state election albiet probably a minority liberal govt (but u never know). I think opposition would be character building for them personally.

By: Ex Norfik Local

Ex Norfik Local — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 03:16:14 +0000

Scotty, I take your point that you weren’t saying that Derwent was marginal or that Aird was not safe. I think I tend to agree with Kevin though – LC elections really have a life of their own and I’ve never really seen one that has actually involved an issues campaign, even one as simple as lets-bash-the-state-government. Admittedly I’ve lived elsewhere for ten years and maybe Parkinson’s last campaign was, but that’s a pretty unusual seat. LC elections really do seem to be about personal connection and profile.

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 00:25:29 +0000

“And by the time she was elected, 48.5 % of people still had not voted for her” is true, but greatly understates how easily she won. The reason is that she cleared her majority with two opponents still remaining in the count (James on 31.2% and Smith on 17.4%). Smith was the Greens candidate. I don’t know the distribution of his preferences between James and Ritchie, but even assuming that none exhausted (a small percentage would have done so) and the rest favoured James 60:40 (I doubt it would have been heavier than that, if they even favoured James at all) that would still give Ritchie a 58.4% two-candidate-preferred result. Most likely, therefore, there was at least a modest 2CP swing to her. This is not surprising given that she was up against incumbent Cathy Edwards the first time, and up against Richard James as the incumbent herself the second. All up, it was really a business-as-normal result – neither a spectacular win for Ritchie nor an obvious large backlash against her.

Yes, it would have been more interesting had Ritchie been opposed by a credible, equally-high-profile, left-leaning popular independent, but these are not at all common creatures in Legislative Council elections or indeed in Tasmanian politics in general. Indeed my main basis for correctly calling Ritchie’s very easy win a done deal in advance of the election (contrary to some speculation otherwise) was that the opposition candidate list was a rabble, most of whom were probably running to boost their local government profiles.

By: Scotty

Scotty — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 11:24:25 +0000

I guess you are probably right. I do believe she did not reach 50% plus 1 quota without preferences however. And by the time she was elected, 48.5 % of people still had not voted for her. I believe she got nearl 54 percent last time. I’m sure there are a combination of factors for that but the lennon baggage would be one. That was when there was more optimism he would step down and before the Green trial decended into a farce and Howard was still around to remind us why we hate liberals so much. The guy who came second had once been a member of the liberal party but to be fair had once been a democrat also. For the large amount of candidates there was no real viable alternative. The green unacceptable, the member of the shooters party perhaps? or that complete joke marty Zucco? Her personal vote did no doubt save her skin. I would suspect another few hundred votes would be a female solidarity thing in a male crowded field.

Basically my point is if there was a real popular indpendent centre left candidate maybe things could be different. My other point is there could still more baggage we are yet to learn of. Also Allison Richie is not a member of the lennon cabinet. But guess who is?

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 10:43:20 +0000

I didn’t see much support for the idea that backlashes against Lennon Labor are expressed against Labor’s Upper House candidates in the Pembroke election last year. Either that or the backlash isn’t all that large – Allison Ritchie’s primary vote was down only 10 points despite facing five opponents (albeit comparatively weak ones) instead of just one.

Scotty – what do you reckon would be the two Upper House seats the Libs would be most likely to win if they were Lib-Lab-Green contests? I’ll crunch some numbers on each of them and see if the Libs would indeed win them.

Some time back there was some discussion about what would happen if Tasmania went to a 25-seat single-seat system and Charles Richardson suggested the Libs would be annihilated based on figures at that time; he reckoned it would be something like 23-0-2. But that was in the leadup to the last state election, so I think he was working off ‘02 figures.

By: Scotty

Scotty — Tue, 26 Feb 2008 05:52:34 +0000

He is very safe i agree. The point though is how safe. My point was more he has gone from impossible to unseat to very hard to unseat on the new boundry. Though removing Ouse probably reduced the benifit of the areas remopved but it is very small population wise. The premose of my point is that the current government has become extremley unpopular. I have yet to meet one person who will openly say they will vote for them. Though some have been struggling to try and find an excuse. I am a labor voter. But i will not vote for Lennon. Of Course a liberal could not beat him. But a popular independent could. You will notice on my list of what i think would be the results in head to head match ups i do not list derwent as marginal. Though a liberal presence could help direct votes to another candidate. I was simply pointing out redistributions can have political reprecusions for the LC.

By: Ex Norfik Local

Ex Norfik Local — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 10:04:28 +0000

I have to disagree with Scotty about Derwent being a potential problem for Aird when it goes up for election next. I haven’t lived in Tassie for ten years but I wouldn’t mind betting that the old-style, socially conservative Labor voters in areas like New Norfolk would be the last to swing against the current State Government, even if the swing is on. Aird is also a personable, intelligent individual who worked very hard to win the seat and who would no doubt do so again if there was a serious challenge. With the inherent difficulties involved in unseating a sitting LC member in a contest that is barely covered in the media and has tight spending limits, I think Aird is pretty safe. And there’s no way a declared Lib could knock him off – it would have to be an independent with a strong pre-existing public profile.

By: Rates Analyst

Rates Analyst — Sun, 24 Feb 2008 21:44:13 +0000

Not the right state I know, but there's some new numbers out from Victoria Hope it's interesting for someone.