I think he has been utterly useless in his time in office and even more useless as head of Australia’s foreign affairs.

I think it’s fair to say that in between his early ministerial stuff-ups and his final-year Rudd-inspired meltdown, Downer allowed the incompetence of other Howard ministers to outshine his own.

He was originally a National and left after a falling out with a Port Macquarie developer and National party associate. The newsletter I get from him every few months makes a major point that he votes more frequently with the coalition than with Labor. In addition Brogden asked him to join the Liberals

Despite this and not surprisingly, it must be admitted that, the ALP has run dead in the last two state elections and sees him as a superior choice than a National.
I agree that being an independent in federal parliament is largely a waste of time but I think that Oakeshott, like Tony Windsor, would find Canberra a far more pleasant and interesting waste of time than Macquarie St. Otherwise why did he say that he was interested in running at the 2004 election?

If Vale retires, Lyne is Oakeshott’s for the taking. The question will be how much he wants it and whether he will run as a Liberal or Independent.
There is no Liberal infrastructure in the seat and the Libs got very close last time only by selecting a well respected local councillor – depending on candidates and expenditure I am not certain the Libs would unseat the Nats unless they had Oakeshott as their candidate.

Would Mr Oakeshott waist his time in Federal Parliament like Tony Windsor does constantly bitching about the Coalition parties? Would that make the conservative voters of Lyne happy? Like New Englanders would they care?

If Mr Oakeshott leaves Port Macquarie that would make that seat vacant and with a NSW ALP government on the nose I am sure the intelligent people of Port Macquarie would take the opportunity to tell the ALP so and elect a conservative party candidate.

Finally Mr Oakeshott has a young family and would they be happy for him to spend more time away from them in an enlarged Federal electorate, probably not.

Jayne seems to think so and is foaming at the mouth with excitement.

Many people believe he got his comeuppance in Makin and certainly won’t risk him again in a seat like Mayo where the Liberal vote isn’t as rusted-on as many think. As others have said on here, all it will take is a strong, high-profile LOCAL candidate and this seat will fall.

“An outsider to jump on the resignation bandwagon might be poor old Tony Abbot, who seems especially lost without the big staff and the comcar.”

I don’t think Tony will jump, he is a knight and knights do not run they fight to the end.

Though I disagree with some of Tony’s views I have to admire him on his convictions. Case in point was when he and Beasley appeared on compass re torture, Tony said it was justified re certain cercumstances and Beasley waffled as usual. Given a choice I would choose Abbott over Beasley.