Newspoll has released its first New South Wales state poll since the March 2007 election. The poll was half conducted before the Wollongong City Council scandal broke, and half after. It shows the two parties locked together at 50-50 on two-party preferred, with the Coalition on 39 per cent of the primary vote and Labor on a dismal 34 per cent. The two-party figure might be subject to the Labor bias which Peter Brent at Mumble noted in respect to last week’s ACNielsen poll. Newspoll has Morris Iemma’s approval rating down to 32 per cent from 47 per cent at the time of the election, which is very close to ACNielsen’s 52 per cent to 34 per cent. The Australian’s article hints intriguingly at a five-point turnaround on preferred premier after the Wollongong story broke, but says nothing about voting intention. The Australian’s graphic possibly has more, but my browser crashes when I try to open it (UPDATE: No, I wasn’t really missing anything).
Also from Newspoll today are comprehensive figures on perceptions of the two party leaders, which show Kevin Rudd wiping the floor with Brendan Nelson on every measure.
121 Comments
Not as bad as one would think, considering it all the nastiness in NSW. 50-50 now could be election-winning in 3 yrs time.
Isn’t it amazing that Rudd is so far ahead in the ‘economy’ category. Reading what the Liberal supporters on this blog have been saying, this is a huge rejection of their wishful thinking.
Extraordinary result for Labor on the economy and National Security. As Labor pretty much owns every other conceivable issue, Health, Education, Environment, I.R, What possible reason do people have for voting for the Coalition? There was only 2, now Labor owns them aswell
Yes Timbo now that the coalition propaganda machine has had its wings clipped, a saner view of the nation is emerging.
Do you know what the Greens primary was? With the majors only polling 73% between them I’d expect it to be at the top of the range.
Was the Liberal good for the economy, we have had the lowest unemployement rate in 50 years, and inflation is only 3%, this is not match by anywhere in the world except sweden. And the majority of the inflation is cause by India, China and US’s consumption of Petrol, which drive up prices of all other good.
Have the Liberal done a good job, definitely, and why does the public think Labor is superior now, because Costello is no longer there
Will inflation reduce under Labor, definitely the RBA has make sure of it, and making it harder for employer to sack employee will led to more unemployment and less pressure on inflation.
If you have a primary vote of 32%, under a optional voting system, the 2 parties prefer is meaningless. A 32% vote will probably mean the greens pick up 2 seats too
The Australian always underestimate the Green Vote, there seems to be a real attempt to not even mention them. When you consider that every State Labor Governemnt as well as the Rudd Government have been elected on Greens Preferences, and that the Green vote in has steadily increased in every election for the last ten years, where is the credibility of this type of poll.
The bias we saw in the last election was a disgrace, they and their neo-con friends need to get out more. They spend to much time bunkered down in Mens Clubs and seem stunned that they are in opposition literally everywhere.
This poll is absolutely bullbutter (on the issues) how can one fall 40 points in just 3 months…rogue poll IMHO!
8 Glen – LOL, very good. It’s great you can maintain a sense of humour with these figures glaring at you.
As far as NSW is concerned, they’re 3 years from an election. Plenty of time to swing things around. Plenty of time for the Liberal opposition to mess up.
lol…there he is… right on time and right on message
The incredible thing about this polling is that 41% were not even aware of the Wollongong allegations and of those 59% who were aware 33% said it would make no difference as to who they’d vote for. Once all of this dies down, as it will, the focus will change and my tip is that the government will be leading in the polls again by the end of this year.
Hey Glen, good news in The Australian – “THE Reserve Bank believes inflation may almost be under control and that yesterday’s interest rate rise could be the final blow in a series of 12 consecutive increases that have pushed rates to their highest level in 12 years.”
Come on Glen you must be happy about this or are you?
I think its pretty hard to argue the case why either party deserves to govern NSW so I’d say 50-50 is pretty fair. If there was the possibility of a huge renewal of the ALP it’d make things a lot easier but they’re certainly looking stale. It’s simply impossible to think of the Libs as anything more than a joke in New South Wales. I don’t even know who any of them are apart from Mr O’Farrell.
On the Federal side, the poll results are to be expected. The Liberal Party are languishing, without any real direction and the ALP are so far making all the right noises (which is all they can be expected to have done).
Picking up on a somewhat unrelated thread, in regard to Mr Pyne’s suggestion of a ‘grass roots’ membership vote for Liberal Party leadership votes. I have to say I think this is a useless suggestion for a number of reasons:
1) It will not allow fast transitions between leaders, a vote for leadership would take a while, because it would require a length of time for the vote to be announced and to give all members the chance to vote. This would leave the leadership speculation going for far too long.
2) The leader of the party ought to be supported by the majority (and preferably vast majority) of the parliamentary members, as they are the ones who need to stand up and support the leadership decisions made. For this reason, the parliamentary membership should decide the leadership.
3) I don’t think there’s any less likelihood for ‘grass roots’ membership votes to be any less dominated by party factions and internal bickering, furthermore offering the vote to regular members may leave a portion of members feeling disenfranchised.
To finish of a huge post (sorry Mr Bowe) I believe the Labor party candidates were finalised for the ACT election yesterday. It may be of interest to some people to have a look at that.
The good news for the ALP in NSW is that things can’t possibly get any worse. There is plenty of time for the Opposition to slip up and for the electorate to conclude that Iemma & Co are the lesser of two evils.
Federally though, the Liberals need to get ownership of an issue, stat. It doesn’t matter what issue, they just need to get something, anything, to beat Labor over the head with. I don’t see it happening anytime soon though.
Glen
If its a rogue Newspoll, why don’t you convince all the reluctant backbenchers to retire, call the by elections, and test the mood of the electorate in the one trully reliable way? Mark Vaille and Lord D would rather be playing golf anyway. I’m sure Labor could rustle up some candidates.
Seriously, the collapse in the rating by policy area is exactly what I was suspecting – there has been a dramatic collapse of confidence in the coalition, even in their previous “core” areas of economy and defence. On the economy, only 17% of voters now have confidence in them, including only a minority (40%) of coalition voters!
Dovif
I’m not sure if you are joking, but inflation is now closer to 4% than 3% (3.75%) and is in the highest quarter of rates in the OECD. Howard did not do well fighting inflation. Growth and unemployment maybe, but not inflation.
14 Craig, they have picked their issue. Liberals don’t believe in working Friday mornings and they are prepared to die in the trenches for the cause.
Steve Rudd also doesnt believe in working on Friday mornings either, the hypocrisy that comes out of your posts astounds me!
Glen – add the issues up, not pick them apart- I’m going to keep saying it until you get it.
Rudd was working on the Friday on the aboriginal housing problem by getting a local perspective in QLD. Regardless, neither he, not any of the MP’s who attempted to impersonate penis’ in the chamber were required to be there.
Stop bringing half the argument to the table and acting so proud of yourself.
Whe you keep dealing with the issues so simplistically, it really only leads the rest of your fellow poster to one conclusion.
Grow up and think for yourself.
Rudd was on a scripted (by his PR team) media good news story visit, hypocritical considering he’s going to drop our successful NT intervention policy.
Further to the member for Dubai’s work outside Canberra, if Vaille did pull the pin, how safe is his seat, and is there any prospect of a Tony Windsor/Peter Andren style independant candidate?
Looks like growth has slowed a bit in the December quarter, so a bit less pressure on interest rates.
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/5206.0?OpenDocument
Clinton beating Obama 59/39 in Ohio with 3% counted.
McCain has got the nomination with wins in Ohio, Vermont and RI.
What are you jealous of Glen – the substance or the style?
What is your reasoned alternative position with enough political capital so as to be capable of being implemented?
We know politicians are hypocrits – we had this discussion last night – do you need me to quote it? You getting upset about it isn’t going to change anything.
Again – it’s politics Glen – not chequers.
Bring a thought with you, and we’ll have a starting point.
17 glen, frontbenchers for the Opposition don’t have to be there on Friday mornings either. Put the dummy back in your mouth and try to encourage your representatives to behave a bit better at the next Friday sittings. I actually don’t mind if they want to behave like fools but expect further losses in the polling if they want to carry on in this manner. The Australian voter is a lot less tolerant of political disunity than I am.
19 [he’s going to drop our successful NT intervention policy.]
I’d encourage Rudd to drop every coalition policy and he probably will. The policies were so good the Tories lost the last election, totally rejected by the Australian voters.
“he’s going to drop our successful NT intervention policy.” Your arguments Glen are not enhanced by exaggeration. onimod is so on the money here re your debating skills.
Mark Vaile? Wasn’t he the one in charge of our “Free” Trade agreement with the US? No FTA without sugar, wasn’t it?
Some perspective for our ALP diehards / Rudd worshipers:
In NSW, the past year has seen Labor’s primary vote fall 5% and the Coalition’s rise 2%. That’s a 7% turnaround since the March 2007 election.
While state governments are generally hard to dislodge (Labor has been in power since 1995 in NSW) a 5% fall in the government’s vote over 1 year is very significant. That, coupled with the fact that by 2011 they will have been in power for 15 years means it’s safe to say that they will most likely not regain any support from a disenchanted and tired electorate.
I’d put money on a NSW-ALP electoral collapse by 2011.
This in The Australian re the Seasprite helicopter project:
“Opposition defence spokesman Nick Minchin took the unusual step today of revealing then defence minister Brendan Nelson was “particularly concerned’’ about the project and recommended to the National Security Committee of Cabinet last year that it be axed.
He said the opposition accepted the government’s decision to axe the project but said key questions remained. He said the ill-fated project had been the initiative of the Keating Government, a project the Howard government had inherited.”
Just one question if they inherited this project from Keating and they had reservations about it why in 11 1/2 years in government didn’t they cancel it. Something’s smelly here.
As for A-C – I’m still not convinced. What goes down can come up again. In that year you speak of everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. There is still plenty of time to get it right and still plenty of time for the Libs to get it wrong. You’re making one mistake A-C, you’re judging the result of the next election on what is happening now, not what is happening then (understandably).
I sense the emergence of a cunning and comprehensive coalition policy for reelection, just wait 10 plus years and the voters will put them back in. Visionary.
30 FTP
I can’t remember exactly the Micalef line from last week re: the “cunning 1960’s CIA plan to defeat Castro by forcing him to retire when he becomes old and frail…”
(delivered much better than I can here)
It might just work…..and it saves having to work for it in the meantime.
how could anyone of sane mind in NSW possibly vote for the ALP
#7
Follow the Preferences,
Don’t mention the Greens, the “2PP Club” will get very nervous, and try to change the subject or start spitting untruths about the commi/terrorists lurking under the bed.
By all indications (Labour down 5%, Coalition up 2%),
the Greens are up 3% on their primary vote, or an increase of approximately 30% in their vote.
Now there’s a story, you would think a half decent reporter would be allowed to report on—apparantly not.
The “2PP Club” and neo-con cheer squad are so busy looking under the bed, they can’t see the elephant in the room.
Ha-Ha-Ha, DON’T MENTION THE GREENS
32 CL’s blog is back – have you ever voted ALP?
#20
The current independent state MP for Port Macquarie Rob Oakeshott immediately comes to mind if there was to be a high profile indepedent candidate in Vailes seat, should he retire. Rob is very well liked (going by the last state election results) and he would surely give the Nationals candidate a good run for his money.
mark vaile is a disgrace
Gold coast Liberal team ‘A’ swaps preferences with Liberal team ‘B’ to try to beat sitting mayor. Here’s hoping they split each other’s vote and run second and third.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/gold-coast-candidates-align-to-drive-out-clarke/2008/03/05/1204402532812.html
I think it’s funny how being elected PM has magically transformed Rudd’s ability to handle the economy as far as the polls are concerned. Suddenly, they change positions in the House, and it’s almost as if Rudd is now infinitely superior to anyone in the Coalition.
Maybe the analysis here is as shallow as: “Hey! He must know what he’s doing – he’s Prime Minister!”
Personally, I don’t think anyone really knows how to handle the economy. Not even the economists. The reason they call it “the dismal science” is because it’s not even a science at all.
When will the Green Wallies realise that we have a preference system. Oh gee Labor was elected on Green preferences.
Labor would have been elected no matter what system we have. The Greens only exist because we have preferences.
How long before one of the bored ex ministers starts an avalance and decides to quit? It will only take one – the rest will follow. Maybe the same day Fran has to go to the polls again.
Liberal wallies don’t get too excited about NSW there will be a Federal election before a NSW one.
#35 is tight on the money. I reckon the seat is Oakeshott’s if he wants it and there’s a byelection, especially now that Vaile has damaged the brand in such an incredibly thoughtless way. I know the State seat is a lot smaller than the Federal, but Oakeshott is astoundingly popular in Port. I’m sure (Federal) Labor would love to see that happen too, so they would do anything they could to help Oakeshott. Trouble is, I’m sure the Nats know all this, so there will be quite some pressure on Vaile not to go. In that case, will money trump party loyalty? Knowing the Nats, I guess Vaile goes for the cash.
Wayne Swan at it again- oh please, please Banks show some restraint on rates… yep stop it or i will spank you. What next.
Words mean nothing Wayne.
We are slowly heading to a recession and both parties have caused it.
Wayne Swan has emerged, predictably, as an economic imbecile. The only policy of his I actually like is his proposal to ease the barriers to changing banks.
Otherwise, his tomfoolery on inflation is stupid.
GP,
Please don’t go back in to your old abusive assertion method of contribution. Give us some reasoned arguments for your unfashionable views.
Generic it is called spin and currently the Labor Party is full of it, what spin will they give when more people will be living in caravans or on the streets because of interest rates, what spin we head into a recession,
as i said yesterday how many of our politicians have investments in the housing market meaning how many are playing the negative gearing game?
Wayne Swan is trying to show compassion but doing nothing and spinning a few words has nothing to do with compassion.
Our politicians care little for battling people today, instead it is all about the markets and the wealthy- simple.
No 43
Just yesterday Swan claimed that Turnbull’s assertion that there is currently a two-speed economy was “silly”. The reality is that QLD and WA are resource rich and hence are fuelling inflation at a higher rate than SA, NSW and VIC. This is a matter of fact, not a “silly” delusion as Mr Swan would have it be.
I live in Victoria and can assure you that petrol prices, food prices and interest rates are going up here. I don’t imagine it is any faster/slower than anywhere else.
No 46
That wasn’t my point. Economic growth is disparate around Australia, focussed mainly in QLD and WA. Petrol prices and groceries aren’t the only determinants of inflation.
GP we may have a situation of recessed economies in South Eastern Australia and booming economies in Queensland and Western Australia, nonetheless after the olympics such boom may ease as China may not need our raw materials as much.
May be we could do something with them ourselves or are we stupid- i guessed it yep we are better letting other countries use our goods to make things so we can buy them.
How crazy.
47 Generic – it’s a pity your boys had no answers for this otherwise we may not have been in this mess.
No 49
Oh dear Gary. What did you expect? That the Coalition magically discover rich deposits of resources in the South East?
Honestly Gaz, try a different customer.
So the Libs have reached 50%. I wonder if they’d have managed that with the Member for Vaucluse (if you don’t mind) as leader.
As Craig at #14 said, and I’d agree, it’s hard to see how things could get much worse for Labor.
GP, it is too simplistic to say that Qld/WA are booming because of minerals/energy exports and the rest are not because they do not have those exports. Newcastle is the worlds biggest coal port. All the coal that is shipped from there is from NSW. NSW has approximately as much coal as Qld. The problem is (as usual) infrastructure. The queues of ships off Newcastle are now a cliche for ignored infrastructure /skills requirements over the last 20 odd years, since Nick Greiner made public debt political poison, and Costello added fuel to the fire (proving that Costello never had any original thoughts, even bad ones). Port Kembla is almost as bad, and due to worsen as freight from Port Botany is increasingly diverted there to alleviate political problems in Sydney. NSW is also a very big exporter of minerals including gold.
Other states, especially SA are the same.
One of the biggest problems in NSW is the curse of nimbyism. That has caused the delay in developing even more mining projects, and is the major cause of port and rail development delays after the voodoo economic arguement that debt is bad(thanks Costello).
50 Generic – Well they were the economic geniuses weren’t they Gen?
By the way GP, we’re actually booming down here too.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23320533-5000117,00.html
I think that with those primary vote figures and the OPV that we have in NSW that would translate to the Coalition ahead on 2PP.
Regarding the figures on Rudd V Nelson, that’s a very good result for Nelson. He polled double figures in all issues, except the Environment (where his 9% still beat his Preferred PM rating).
Here’s something different,
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/gympie-prodam-candidate-cuts-lone-figure/2008/03/05/1204402548552.html
50 [Oh dear Gary. What did you expect? That the Coalition magically discover rich deposits of resources in the South East?]
Unlikely, GP, the coalition couldn’t even find any resources in the budget to fix teenagers teeth, let alone the dental care for seniors.
Mike Cusack – I agree one of the most reasonable posts I’ve read in a long time. I tried to raise this issue with Joe Hockey once, but he responded with personal abuse.
The inflation rate is indeed closer to 4%. There was a very low print of +0.1% in Q1-07, which means the annual rate is artificially depressed. So the 3.0% annual rate is actually 2.9% over the last three quarters. The RBA knows this, hence the rate hikes…
One final point, as a comparative insider I can tell you that Swan’s public statements have kept the mortgage rates lower than I thought they would be. The banks’ responses (particularly the 30bp followed by 29bp) shows just how sensitive the banks are and are trying to outdo each other and stay on the right side of public opinion. And someone needs to keep the pressure up.
When you realise the rise in costs has been in the order of 50bp for the banks, the paltry 20bp they’ve passed on (so far) seems restrained.
16 Steve – While the issue of “not having to work Friday mornings” is very close to my heart personally, I of course meant “an issue that someone other than the parliamentary Liberal Party cares about.”
Any one notice the flood of law suits happening against the federal government since “Sorry Day”? Even the one highlighted in the papers virtually the following day was against the Victorian government and was in the pipeline before Rudd’s “sorry” took place.
60 Craig, looks like you are out of luck, all the coalition seem to care about at present is playing golf with journalists during question time, going on cruises to talk about wheat, abusing the speaker on Fridays or lobbying people in Dubai. Other than that the only issue seems to be when will the rash of by-elections start and in which order will they be held.
63 Another problem for the Tories is that even when a major issue such as the workchoices backlash was staring them in the face it was unrecognised by them. Here is a review on the effect unions had on the last election.
http://www.australianreview.net/digest/2008/02/spies-butcher_wilson.html
Where’s Turnbull’s mind at? Don’t do it Malcolm.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23329369-5001028,00.html
64 Gary, you just want to see a ppm of zero, don’t you?
65 steve – You’re onto me Steve. Don’t tell anybody though.
The biggest loser!
Little Johnny H has scamperd off to the states and is having a cry to his neocom mates about how is precious policies are being trashed by the Rudd government.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/06/2182228.htm
Boo hoo, democracy sucks doesnt it.
No guts to air your grievences in Australia you have to run off to the country you wanted us to become, pathetic!
Please America keep Johnny, make him a citizen he will be well chuffed with that.
Gary, if a seven percent preferred Prime Minister scatters the few Nelson supporters left and gets them crowing about the sucess of a Democratic candidate in the US. Imagine the support for the Democratic Party if Nelson gets to zero.
Howards speech.
“If the butter of common national values is spread too thinly it will disappear altogether.”
Makes as much sense as Glenns bullbutter remarks.
67 “Mr Howard has given an address at a gala dinner for the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, where he received the Irving Kristol Award.”
An award? for what? Services for spreading the notional value of inflation thickly most likely.
Oh, I see.
http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.27308,filter.all/pub_detail.asp
Malcolm Turnbull on 7.30 report.
The Howard gov’t had nothing to do with the increase in inflation.
What a complete tosser.
I liked Turnbull’s answer to getting us out of the Liberal’s mess, there wasn’t one.
Turnbull and Swan have no idea. Turnbull should have admitted the failures of the previous government and then suggested what they should have done.
His productivity answer was just sheer nonsense, productivity was not occurring because of the booming mining sector restricting it and doing so for five years, what next? The mind boggles.
Turnbull was i must admit terrible, i thought he was better than this.
Swan is the same both, both i admit have no solutions other than letting things roll on regardless, actually cutting spending is not a solution, and tax cuts are just stupid.
74 marky marky – you speak like a man with all the answers, please tell.
Turnbull almost admitted the problem, oh gee we had all these unskilled long term unemployed joining the great low paid.
Hey Wentworth Lawyer – that is exactly what the RB has been saying for yonks. Skills you wally.
0% productivity gain – why?
People seem to be great at telling us what Swan shouldn’t be doing but not particularly good at saying what he should be doing to solve our economic problem.
JWH was still crapping on about “winning the war on terror”.
I’d love for someone to tell us what the definition of winning is.
Defining anyone as a terrorist because they refuse to fight by our rules is just patently silly. A fight to the death is a fight to the death.
Anyone knows that if you don’t want to get hurt fighting that you just don’t get involved in the first place. Now granted, that might not always be possible when someone wants to bring the fight to you, but if you’re going to talk about “winning” then you’ve got to be prepared to annihilate your opponent.
The 6 years since the invasion is just a drop in the bucket that represents conflict in the middle east. The idea that we can make anyone forget the bucket is just laughable.
77 Gary B
on the money again
marky marky – I think it’s great that you’ve got plenty of criticism to hand out; no one should go unscrutinised, but surely with that much energy invested you’ve got some solutions too?
Yes we all know about the tax cuts, but be politically serious; the truth, promises and word of politicians is particularly sacred in Australian politics – especially when you promise to give.
So, taking account of politics, and assuming the tax cuts stay, what should the ALP be doing differently?
For one thing i would not be cutting cutting taxes, especially to the wealthy who are causing much of the housing crisis.
Thus the continued buying of investment properties which are fueling a spiralling out of control asset price explosion on houses. This is especially the case in our inner suburban areas and coastal regions of this country. Thus the rich will use their taxcut to speculate further whilst the poor will use it to put a few scraps on the table. Their is this continued belief that the rich will reduce their savings and not their consumption and this has been over the last twenty years refuted). Instead the reverse has happened.
In the end it will cause a massive housing bubble and a significant increase in the homeless. Why continue to pump prime an economy out of control. Hence cause further interest rate increases.
Two- i would not be cutting spending, must what and see on this regarding the cutbacks but cuts to spending will hit the vulnerable more than the rich who will be able to ride out such cuts. It is possible the cuts to spending will hurt the economy even more. Why quarantine defence, it does not make sense.
To me it is the governments fault regarding housing price speculation that is now evident. Negative gearing, cuts to capital gains taxes have caused the housing bubble.
Put simply i am not a supply side economist, i believe in growth and government spending with a measured approach to taxation policy to reduce demand in the economy, hence greater taxes on the wealthy. Why use interest rates as a lever for slowing the economy down when mainly it effects the vulnerable and those either buying a home or trying to pay for one. Tax increases would slow the economy down on a more equitable basis. Our prioriities are backward.
Interest rate increases rarely hurt the wealthy as they own a home. They also hurt businesses who have borrowed money but again it is generally the smaller businesses trying to get a foothold in the economy, larger businesses have enough equity already and the ability to get through the tough times.
Sorry what =wait and effect should be affect.
Higher interest rates also allow the wealthy to stick their money in nice account or term deposit with a high rate to reap further benefits. The economic process is designed to help them and not the vulnerable in my view.
Must say it is fascinating to see the amount of ex Labor people who become lobbyists for big companies. Seems to me that they just give up what they believe in and let the wealthy continue on playing their game.
Lobbyists and donations, especially in New South Wales are causing significant probs, time reforms occurred in this area.
Hopefully Iemma will end donations from developers.
Marky I commend you for giving it a go but, as I understand it, the tax cuts are not directed towards the wealthy are they?
What a terriblly selfish and pathetic planet.
On the one hand http://www.globalissues.org/TradeRelated/Facts.asp
And the other
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/mar/06/richlists
“Thus the continued buying of investment properties which are fueling a spiralling out of control asset price explosion on houses.” Is this an assumption on your part or do you have the stats to prove it?
As a proportion of income recieved the tax cuts go to people who recieve the greater share of income, Gary.
Yes the very rich don’t get a tax cut this year. But will in the future.
Nonetheless, money will be in the economy and yes it may not go towards speculation as i suggested but the poor tend to spend their money rather than save it and yes whilst i want the vulnerable to have more money in this time of need for them, maybe it should go into measures which would benefit them long term such as super, further consumption will in my mind cook their goose through increases in interest rates or rental price hikes.
Why not scrap the capital gains tax concessions or limit the negative gearing changes to investors’ incomes from the property instead of a rebate on total income.
Gary i would like you to tell you me if you work for the Labor Government because you never criticise it. Hate to criticise but i have a dislike for yes people. Nothing against you though.
87 marky marky – I’m not part of any party and never have been. I will criticise when I feel the need. I have voted Liberal. You?
Gary i am actually a member believe it or not of the Labor Party. Amazing as it is, just care about people and society and want a better world.
Marky, I’m just not convinced anyone really knows what they’re doing with the economy and I get a bit narky with people who criticise without providing solutions, solutions that are based on facts, figures proven remedies rather than ideology which, no offence, your suggestions seem to be based on ie “hit the rich”.
I must say though I prefer Labor governments over Liberal governments in the main.
I respect your motives and agree with your goals but I think you’re one of those people who overlooks the reality of politics. I remember years ago there were left wingers of the Labor Party who had the people’s wellbeing at heart but would sacrifice their own Labor government in order to achieve their goals. To me that useless. You can’t achieve your goals in opposition. Hence some sacrifices to ideology need to made.
well done marky marky
Now if we only had a treasury department to produce the reports to back your ideas up. That’s a major part of the problem. I don’t really know whether I can support your ideas or not. I’m not really sure it’s all the rich’s investment in property that’s the problem – I think there’s a lot of problems.
Here’s one:
When my parents were buying a house they bought a 2 bedder and extended it to match the kids as they came along – that’s all they needed.
Now go out and try and find a new modest 2 bedroom house on a large block with real potential to be extended – they just don’t exist.
We now borrow and buy based on the maximum loan we can service – what we NEED is secondary. It’s a cultural change.
We’ve gone from aspiring to a Kingswood, to our company leasing a Lexus 4WD. Now that might make sense to the individual, but what it really means is that our overall taxation has increased to support a finance company to run a leasing company etc etc. Again – it’s a cultural change.
As any parent will know- it’s very hard to take the brand new shiny red toy off the 2 year old and then try to explain that them having it is hurting the less rich child who lives across the street….
92
Gary Bruce
And Gary that’s exactly what it’s about: Politics vs Values.
If only the former government had promised 5 billion in tax cuts instead of 30 something billion. Then Rudd would have promised 4.6 billion or whatever. Rudd was compelled to ‘bid’ almost as much as the Liberals. Costello and Howard thought they’d completely trumped Labor with the tax cuts promise leaving labor no room to move on other savings/spending initiatives. Rudd brought the whole bidding process to a close when he unleashed his master stroke at the Labor launch where he said this “reckless spending must stop.’
That’s all history now. Labor has made the tax cuts promise. Nelson & Co would love for the government to break that promise. No doubt Rudd would love to use the tax revenue for worthwhile national projects but a promise to the Nation is a promise that must be kept. The public will get the tax cuts and Rudd will have to find savings and revenue streams elsewhere to lift the country out of Howard’s mess.
That’s what good government is all about: delivering on your spending promises whilst maintaining a sound economy. Rudd will work hard to achieve both which is something Howard/Costello had no intention of ever doing.
Gary sorry but we beg to differ. You and i will continue to argue on this site and that i will enjoy.
Economic rationalists are ruining this country and the world.
On this negative gearing assumption made if you look at the bureau of statistics site for november regarding investment housing you in november 2007 you will notice that investment housing for new housing acconted for 30 percent of new starts a significant amount, i can recall in the late 80’s negative gearing fuelling speculation significantly when it was introduced housing prices. Put simply it is causing a bubble which will burst.
And yes i may speculate and come up on occasion with little evidence but please explain to me what evidence our politicians and economists use as evidence for doing much of what they achieve- as today they tend to hide everything under the cloak of “commerical confidentiality”.
And yes this hit the rich view is something i believe in,
because it has got right out of proportion in this country and throughout the world. CEO’s get excessive payrises over the last ten years whilst working people get barely a trickle.
I could go on but it is time i went to bed. But will love to continue debating with you on another occasion.
Sorry was going to bed, but Steve you definately are a new modern Labor appartichik, who has come out uni and learnt how to spin and play with marketeers. Give me a break, this promises bulldust, so if the economy starts detoriating will Labor continue to honor its promises?
So it is alright for John Howard and Jeff Kennett to do as they please and break promises and hence enact their ideological beliefs but it is not alright for the Labor Party.
The problem for Labor is that it is to weak to do anything, simple.
And full of people who continue to believe that the Whitlam Government was a failure which historically it was not, in terms of what it achieved.
We need a new Labor Party.
JWH ?? (-:
More chilling news on the real estate front from Bloomberg today:
March 6 (Bloomberg) — U.S. mortgage foreclosures rose to an all-time high at the end of 2007 as borrowers with adjustable-rate loans walked away from properties before their payments increased, the Mortgage Bankers Association said today.
New foreclosures jumped to 0.83 percent of all home loans in the fourth quarter from 0.54 percent a year earlier. Late payments rose to a 23-year high, the organization said in a report today.
“We’re seeing people give up even before they get to the reset because they couldn’t afford the home in the first place,” said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics for the Washington-based trade group.
The Bush administration is urging lenders to avert foreclosures by modifying mortgage terms amid the worst housing slump in a quarter century. The Federal Reserve has slashed its benchmark interest rate twice this year to try to avert the first recession since 2001. The central bank yesterday said the net worth of U.S. households decreased by $532.9 billion during the fourth quarter as home values fell.
A global economist gets Rudd’s ear and wants the tax cuts paid as super.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23331881-643,00.html
why Marky Mark-
you sound like a Green!
I totally agree that we are at a point in our history where there is a great divide between humanitarian values versus a culture of greed and instant gratification. Climate change is a direct result of this and we will all ultimately suffer as a result , but it will affect the poorest first of course.
Idealism and vision may sound like ‘motherhood’ statements ( a great insult to mothers I might add), but they are in fact the only thing that we as a species have that differentiate us from less conscious animals. Time we used it. And the race in the US is pretty much about this, which is why it is amazing to see Obabma have such a good tilt at the old order. People want change, and we are looking to our leaders to guide us.
Nice to wake up to yet another breathtaking example of the NSW government’s arrogance isn’t it?:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/costa-sidesteps-the-issues-and-plays-the-dance-card/2008/03/06/1204779968966.html
As a lefty I have had to recognise this truth: It really is time the NSW government was thrown out. These sham workers’ representatives are interested in 3 things:
1. Keeping the standard & poors AAA rating because they think this will keep them in the white cars (current prime example the power sell-off).
2. Looking after themselves (prime example Costa) their families (prime example Obeid) their donating mates (prime example Sartor).
3. Head-kicking anyone who isn’t as right-wing and arrogant as they are (prime example Costa).
Before anyone says, ‘but wait the opposition is worse’, I’ve heard it all before from my mates in the ALP left, but that is no reason to keep supporting a corrupt mob of gangsters. (”If I must choose the lesser of two evils, I will choose neither”). They won’t improve in the next 3 years – they are terminal.
Hopefully the greens get the balance of power in the upper house.
101 jaundiced – hell, is that all. How would that be the straw to break the camel’s back?. By all means throw the government out for genuine reasons but this is BS.
The case against putting tax cuts into super is here:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2008/03/six-reasons-not-to-pour-more-money-into.html
Gary B @ 101 –
Agreed that is no more than another sign of Costa’s juvenile arrogance – but it is also a window into the little shop of horrors that the NSW ALP has become – and the horrors all have their fingers in the till
“and the horrors all have their fingers in the till” – you mean illegally or like all governments do? If illegally has this been proven yet? I’m not trying to be a smart alec here, I really don’t know (I’m from Victoria).
Gary Bruce I think there are countless reasons to throw out the NSW Government. Unfortunately there aren’t so many reasons to elect the alternative… perhaps the ALP could pledge to flush in at least 50% new members next election. It doesn’t help that Iemma even looks like a crook.
Gary B @ 105 – Yes, true, no government can be trusted, but this one has gone beyond anything I’ve seen since the Askin years. The problem is the party has allowed people who are good fundraisers to take it over. Being a good fundraiser often means being part of a world of favours-in-return. Eddie Obeid is one of the key power-brokers, and he was sacked because of apparent rorting in South Sydney to benefit his family, Frank Sartor and others are tainted by other obvious rotrts like, among many, the sale of the Labor council’s Currawong cottages to his donor mates who get him to take over and determine the zoning for the re-development as planning minister. And there was a perfectly good offer on the table form National Parks. Tridopi has got his crooked Wollongong mate into a $200,000 a year job, but has put up enough Chinese walls to make it technically kosher -but it isn’t really. That list is endless. In the meantime, land clearing goes on unchecked, the hospitals amd public transport are rooted, they want to sell the supply of electricity. Oh yeah, they have to go alright.
107 jaundiced – fair enough but why haven’t political heads rolled? If you’re aware of this the authorities must be. Are their actions illegal or not?
The latest Sky News poll question – “Should the goverment guarantee the carers’ bonus in the budget?” Why not just ask, “Do you believe in motherhood?”
Gary B @ 108 – There is an inquiry underway at the moment about Wollongong that may possbly expose a minister. The ICAC has investigated a few of them, but they cover their tracks too well. In short, no criminal convictions yet, but morally, ethically and politically they are a proverbial crock.
@ 109 Ha! Indeed, a typical MSM poll question.
The carers stuff is the biggest beat up this year. First of all they seem to be fixated on a $1600 figure – bull butter.
The figure is either $1000 or $600 depending on which benefit you get. So where the $1600 figure comes from I don’t know – maybe a situation where a couple are both recieving some sort of benefit to look after a child under 16.
But now the person with the disability gets an extra $500 and the carer gets an extra $500, situation the same or a $400 rise.
What a waste of oxygen – and yes I get a disability support pension. My family will be $400 better off.
See my post in the other thread.
I totally agree, this is a beat up by the Opposition Organ no less. My mother who get’s the carer’s allowance for me gets $90 per fortnight PLUS the $600 Annually.
Plus the Utilities Allowance now includes the Internet as well as your phone, before that was only for people on the Aged pension.
I forgot to add I also get $70 per year on the Continence Assistance Scheme which is meant to last me for 12 months, yet I used mine all up in less than 6 months – $60 alone was spent on an adhesive bond for my leg bag because there was a period where the usual product I was using wasn’t being produced and they were trying to source a cheaper alternative.
The Leg Bag alone is $120, plus add condoms for the baf, plus KT Jelly, Latex Gloves etc and it all adds up., oh and if you have any money left over it doesn’t carry over to the next financial year, and you can only use the funds to et stuff from a preferred supplier as well.
hmm, that should be KY Jelly
(and yes, there is a legitimate medical use for the lubrication and condoms besides the obvious – lets just say the lubrication is for my ablutions, and the condoms is for the leg bag.
Too much info Frank. I’ll believe you
I forgot to add the URL for the CAAS Scheme
http://www.health.gov.au/internet/main/publishing.nsf/Content/continence-caas.htm
and info on the CURRENT Carers Payments.
http://myaccount.centrelink.gov.au/wps/portal/payments
It was provided for the benefit of the non disabled members of this blog
Thanks Frank
The ‘preferred supplier’ garbage would irk me – who is that helping?
I heard classic last night, sort of, but not really, related.
A ‘young’ architect got thoroughly involved in delivering a house design to a client – action well above and beyond the norm. and far beyond the fee paid, but hey, you do what makes you happy. He became good friends with the client and as they were going travelling, they rented the brand new house to him.
So he worked for reduced fees, and then helped them to pay of their mortgage, while they were on holiday!
Classic stuff. He is definitely a much ‘richer’ person for the experience.
I should add that the “Preferred Supplier” in this case is PQ Lifestyles, a divison of the Qld Paraplegic-Quadriplegic Associiation.
Previously the contract was allocated to different disability groups in each state, in WA it was initially the MS Society and then Silver Chain.
Oh and you’re only allowed 5 free deliveries per year, any over and you have to pay frieght.
119 – because obviously the disabled are generally rorters of the system……and their need are all the same, so we can lump them in the same boat.
Ah – it’s could be worse.
same problems run throughout the entire welfare system – treat people like idiots and they’ll live up to their end of the bargain, or in the case of Centrelink, treat em like dogs…..
Enough of this negativity…well I tried- there’s just no good news stories out there.
What the hell is happening in Antarctica – that’s just crazy!!!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/07/2183690.htm
Fast Eddie is all but gone from ABC too
http://business.theage.com.au/eddy-groves-abc-stake-all-but-erased/20080307-1xrl.html
(with the storie I’ve hear, I’m not surprised)
Seems like the value of the moral high ground is increasing and pricing more than JWH out of the market.
Well, the Libs are in self-destruct mode again.
Latest gossip in my part of the woods is that an unnamed person called for a Local Government Area meeting to determine that Philip Ruddock’s electorate should have a Local Government Conference. eg. endorsed Liberals running for Hornsby Shire Council which is already in the biggest mess with a majority of “Liberal ” councillors embroiled in a controversy locals like to call “QuarryGate.”
It would appear that certain persons want endorsement as part of their push to take over council and perhaps mount a right-based challenge (yet again) on very popular sitting State Member Judy Hopwood, or indeed at semi-retired Ruddock. These certain persons would (naturally) be backed by people with large land holdings in Galston/Dural who have been waiting a LONG TIME for somebody to push through permission to rezone their land for subdivision.
Anyway, the clever person in the Liberal secretariat (the second-highest office holder I believe) who sent out the official notices of this meeting managed to omit two whole branches from the agenda. The notices also did not make it clear to average punter branch members of the implications of the meeting, or indeed, who had called the meeting, or who even would have the right to vote. All very fishy. I understand a complaint to head office has resulted in the meeting being cancelled just the night before it was to go ahead…..
And these people want to be seen as a viable alternative to Iemma’s team of thugs/mafia etc??????