4.50pm. CNN calls Texas for Clinton. Her lead is back to 51-48 with 75 per cent reporting.
4.42pm. Still 50-48 in Texas with 69 per cent reporting, but the trend on raw figures is nudging gently back to Cllinton. We also have 5 per cent of the caucuses reporting with Obama leading 56-44; no idea what to make of this.
4.12pm. Only just noticed how great the New York Times’ graphical maps are. Run your pointer over Texas and note how a lot of the big counties in the Obama-voting cities have a very low count.
4.08pm. … and her lead his now back to 50-48 with 63 per cent reporting.
4.08pm. CNN analyst says most of Clinton’s strong areas in Texas are “in”; if Obama’s early 60-40 lead in Houston holds up, it will apparently be enough to put him ahead, although he stresses that won’t definitely happen.
4.02pm. Clinton has gained another point in Texas, leading 51-48 with 58 per cent reporting.
3.27pm. Been away from my post for a bit. Clinton has claimed victory in Ohio and is currently delivering a speech making it very clear she’s not about to withdraw. Clinton leads 50-48 in Texas with 46 per cent reporting.
2.46pm. Now 51 per cent of precincts in Ohio and Clinton’s lead has in fact widened a little, to 57-41.
2.33pm. Clinton has caught up with Obama in Texas with 20 per cent of precincts reporting: now 49-all. Her lead is only narrowing slightly in Ohio, now at 56-42 with 47 per cent reporting.
2.14pm. Clinton still leads 57-41 in Ohio with 35 per cent of precincts reporting. Talk in comments suggests a 50-50 result in Cleveland, which I gather was expected to be good for Obama.
2.08pm. Interviewee on Fox Radio notes that Rhode Island exit polls were way out, pointing to a close result when it has actually been a big win for Clinton.
1.50pm. 21 per cent of precincts in Ohio now reporting and Clinton’s earlier lead is almost intact – now 59-39. Texas count has edged up to 6 per cent and Obama’s earlier lead has steadily been whittled away, now down to 51-49.
1.36pm. Clinton still leads 60-38 in Ohio with 14 per cent of precincts reporting.
1.31pm. Claude in comments points out another factor in Ohio being the extension of voting in some counties where Obama is expected to do well.
1.28pm. CNN calls Rhode Island for Clinton, her first win since Super Tuesday.
1.28pm. Al in comments notes no precincts are in from the Ohio cities of Columbus and Cleveland, the former being an Obama-friendly college town.
1.23pm. Huckabee announcing withdrawal. Clinton leads 60-38 in Ohio with 6 per cent counted, but this is presumably with Clinton-friendly areas reporting.
1.10pm. Fox reports that Mike Huckabee has confirmed he will withdraw, but says there are “conflicting reports”.
1.04pm. Obama campaign reportedly feeling upbeat about Ohio, the bad weather having diminished the turnout from older Democrats who favour Clinton. Fox gives McCain a clean sweep of Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island.
1.03pm. McCain by all accounts now has enough delegates to secure the nomination.
1.01pm. Via Kevin Rennie, an explanation of the Texas system from New Republic.
12.45pm. I’ve had my eye off the ball for the last 45 minutes. Obama has an early 56-44 lead in Texas, but these are big city precincts where he is expected to do well. I’m not going to pretend to be on top of the Texan primaries-plus-caucuses system: perhaps somebody who is can provide a brief explanation in comments.
11.55am. Exit polls point to a “tight race” in Rhode Island.
11.40am. CBS News reporting a very high turnout by Hispanics in Texas and low turnout of African-Americans, boding well for Clinton.
11.30am (Australian EST). Polls have just closed in Ohio, and Fox News has immediately called Ohio for John McCain but predicted a close result between Clinton and Obama. Vermont is being called for Obama and McCain.
1,628 Comments
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Very poetic Finnegans. But I retain the right to laugh heartily at your spooky predictions when Obama is nominated.
We were talking about intelligence earlier. I just saw that Bill Foster, won in Illinois yesterday, has a PhD in particle physics. I’m guessing intelligence-wise he would cr*p on any of the candidates, even including Adam’s towering intellectual genius Hillary Clinton.
BTW How intelligent do you have to be to pass the American bar exam? She sat in both Arkansas and Washington DC, presumably to double her chances of passing. She failed in Washington but passed in Arkansas where the pass mark was much higher.
The FAKNEWS is doing a “expose” on Obama right now on his “link” to a confessed “terrorist” (sic), William Ayers of the Weather Underground and and Bernadette Dorhn. Told you it’s going to happen!!
Dio – she did not apply to take both at the same time. She moved to DC, failed, then came back to Arkensas, later reenrolled and successfully passed. Although she skips over this on the CV, the failure wasn’t part of a masterplan.
Dio – all lawyers are smarter than particle physicists. How many particle physicists do you know who could pass the Bar exam?? There’s your proof.
Pancho, if Obi is nominated. i will do my tap dance routine which is 10 times better than that pathetic Dubya tried to do. And I will post it on youtube for your pleasure. Will u do likewise if Hillary is nominated?
Finns -
I have no doubt it’s going to happen.
It’s just not claer how much impact it will have – didn’t work here, although admittedly the war would be a much bigger issue in the US. But then has the “fear “tactic lost it’s potency now?
(sorry- another question…)
Absolutely! I love a making a bet I can’t lose.
(that was re your post@ 1503, not your tapdancing threat.)
1498 Finns- On a literal sense, your argument is seriously flawed. Mathematics does not change as it approaches a black hole, although space-time is distorted. I remember reading a post-modernist editor trying to explain why he published an article claiming that pi changed as you approached a black hole. The article was a set-up by a scientist to show what a hollow, intellectually-bereft sham post-modernism was.
OK Amigo Pancho, our bet is on, witnessed by the bludgers
No matter who wins, we lose
#1510 – NOTHING is flawed at the Black Hole. All the Newtonian physical laws that we know of do not apply at the Black Hole
Polls in the last 10 days have certainly shown something of a return to Hillary.
So does she have “Mo”?
I hope so.
1510
Don’t you mean Post-Structural?
1513 Finns- Actually, Newtonian physics does not apply anywhere. It is wrong. But on our scale, it’s a close enough approximation to be useful.
And if that tap-dancing threat materialises, I pray that Black Hole materialises during your routine so save that unedifying spectacle, which will scar us all irreparably.
1442 Rain. At last some logic argument, which has been severely lacking from both sides of the Democrat fence. How about some more, it will encourage us to stay on the site longer.
bryce
Please, let’s not get caught up in semantics … but wait …
I mean, imagine what Shakespeare would have made of all this if he were
a) A woman?
b) A Marxist?
c) An illiterate sheep herder?
Some of the stuff I have read on here I could have sworn it was Republican versus Democrat, only to find out it was Hillary versus Obama.
I think some people have lost site of who is the enemy.
The Republicans aren’t the enemy, Chris B, they’re the opposition. The enemy is within.
I’m sure I heard something like that on West Wing sometime…
1515 bryce- Post-structuralism refers to work by Derrida, Saussure et al and refers more to semiotics and language. Post-modernism is much broader and covers wacky theories about maths being a social construct.
1521 Ferny Grover. Then you haven’t learned anything from George Bush and John Howard. If the Democrats think like that the Republicans will go for the throat.
Finnigans and Pancho,
Some one had to say it.
I used to be a tap dancer, but had to give it up because I kept falling in to the sink!
GG-
if you filled it (the sink)up you could try some synchronised swimming.
#1516 – Diogenes – “And if that tap-dancing threat materialises, I pray that Black Hole materialises during your routine so save that unedifying spectacle, which will scar us all irreparably”
- cant agree more. that is my Maxwell Smart’s “threat to tap dance trick”. So Hillary will win and Obama is doomed.
What a Dirty trick Finns.
Ferny , who could pass the Bar exam.
the only bar wexam I know of is with VB pots
Finnigans , will you do the tap dance with the rose coloured glass’s on that have a blue shade ?
Actually Finns –
you could be the secret weapon Hillary is looking for.
You guys should get the Maxwell Smart “Get Smart” DVD and send it to Obi. So he can learn few tricks from Max. He effing needs it or else he will lose. Over to you 99 (jen). I told you i was trying to look after your Obi the puppy dog.
#1529 – Jen, let me ask you a serious, a very serious question.
In the immortal words of that Channel 9 news director, has she (Hillary) got it???
ADAM
glad to see you return As I’ve had a special rose colour galss’s set for you that have windscreen wipers on.
Where we disagree is you submitted some sound arguments in favour of Hillary which some here erroneously criticised you for but did not address Obama’s basic strengths.
Yes Hillary will win some states including Ohio due to her generally owning the blue collar vote & the over 50’s vote. Hillary’s healthcare policy being ‘universal’ is better than Obama’s & will consolidate these types of voting blocks.
But Obama will carry some mid west States because he is pulling massive numbers of young & 30’s plus college educated voters who have NOT been voting in the past. This more than offsets HRC advantage in being able to win Ohio
You say Iraq is a positive for HRC , I say its a massive negative (65% oppose Iraq) & HRC is ‘associated’ with Iraq. Its like saying if Costello took over from Howard in Sept and all of a sudden dumped workchoices , the voters would believe him …once you are tainted you are tainted and this IS the issue that has destroyed Hillary with Democrats
What you overlooked is the Democrats hold California & New York the 2 biggest States & hold 2 of the next 4 biggest and NONE of these will be lost whther its HRC or Obama who is the Nominee.
The other massive advantage Obama has over HRC you overlooked is for the first time in history , the Congress (Democrat controlled) and the POTUS (Repug) are both held in utter contempt by most voters with Congress at 19% approval. Obama coming fron OUTSIDE of Washington you say is an experience problem…but I say Obama being non Washington will win massive votes with the Centre & Independents.
On foreign affairs , voters are looking for solutions after a decade of US pride being trashed overseas. HRC offers the same. Obama offers an exit with diplomacy. MOST US Voters now know the US military has limitations. As long as Obama can stay aweay from McCain’s strength in National Security)
Finally , economics which you wrongly downplayed against National Security.
Normally you would be correct to say economics would be 2nd fiddle , however the US is arguably in recession now & may end up in Depression if the ‘prime’ as opposed to ’sub prime’ market is as infected with the crazy lending virus of no relation to security to capacity to debt to discounted early interest.
McCain is on record in the 2004 campaign in a tv interview acknowledging he is weak in economics. Its not a strong point of HRC’s given ther costings of her failed healthcare plan in the 90’s.
So not only will economics be a decisive issue , the outsider ‘harvard’ man comes
with better credentials to McCain & at least equal to HRC
Finnigans
Obama definately has it because that is what will happen to him at the DNC.
I’ve heard a few people now suggest that Gore or Edwards could nominate themselves at the convention (or just prior) to take the nomination. Obviously people have been reminiscing about The West Wing
The problem is that in the real world, that won’t happen. Pledged delegates are chosen by the campaigns. A delegate will steadfastly refuse to vote for anyone else, unless, of course, a presumptive nominee is decided upon long before, and the said candidate asks them to vote for this person (such as everyone endorsing Kerry in ‘04.) I would imagine that all of the delegates would have sacrificed a lot for the campaign they were involved in, been a leader etc etc.
But I digress. My point is that if by some strange circumstance this did go to the convention – and I have said multiple times that there is no chance in hell this will happen – that even if all 800 superdelegates combined to vote for a new candidate (again an unrealistic assessment), there is no chance you could scrounge up another 1200 or so committed pledged delegates from either side to secure a nomination.
The only way that a brokered convention could realistically happen is if there were three candidates with a swag of delegates to their name each. And again, one refers to that illustrious TV show.
Finns -
I have to say that I think she looks amazing for 60, althuogh Diogs did reveal the botox usage – mind you if I was going to be as photographed as she is I’d do it too.
So yes, she has the effablity factor. But not as much as Obi, who is pretty damn Hot IMHO. Could be that it’s cos I’m a girl though…
And they both look as if they have a pulse, which puts them light years ahead of mcCain.
1533 GG
as Kirri would say -LOL.
I just can’t help myself. Il Mostro now tells us that the maths isn’t so bad because the pledged delegates can change from Obama (who the people voted for) to her (who the people should have voted for but made a mistake).
Interviewer; How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?
Clinton; It doesn’t look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they’re all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to. This is a very carefully constructed process that goes back years, and we’re going to follow the process.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/120062/page/2
And also, Michigan and Florida should count too…
#1535 – jen – if that’s the case. i am thinking of switching to obi the puppy dog, just love the effing puppy.
I did Finns. Not that there is any validity to the argument that Obi supporters are naive or vacuous. But he is better looking than her.
Diogenes – breathtaking.
Bugger Finns- your cunning plan is working.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/119953
I’ll include her comments about Florida and Michigan. The reporter points out the pesky problem that Obama was not even on the ballot in Michigan but forgets that Billary has signed a pledge not to include Mi or Fl for some reason.
Interviewer: You’ve been advocating seating delegations from Michigan and Florida. But Senator Obama wasn’t even on the ballot in Michigan. Does making this argument risk alienating voters who think you ‘ re breaking the rules or changing the rules?
Clinton: I don’t think so. I mean, he had a choice to be on the ballot. He chose not to be. I chose to stay on the ballot. So that was a choice he made. His campaign then ran a very vigorous effort to try to defeat me with uncommitted delegates, and he lost. So it wasn’t as though there wasn’t a contest. There was a contest. And I won. And I won resoundingly in Florida … I don’t think we should be about the business of denying voters in Michigan and Florida the right to be heard.
This is desperation politics at its worst. She knows she’s going down the toilet and she’ll do anything to stop that.
Welcome to Hillaryland, where she can justify anything and petty things like rules and maths don’t matter.
Dio, the trouble for Hillary is that by taking this position, she is shooting holes in her own credibility. Great BIG and very windy holes!
In fact, if you put your ear up close to Hillary, you can hear the ocean.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/120169?tid=relatedcl
jen Obi needs me
1543,
Lip quiivering, asanque discovers that the Democrat Nomonation is still a contest.
One for Hillary. Go girl, go.
Hillary Clinton, Through a Lens Wrongly
By Deborah Tannen, Sunday, March 9, 2008; B03
This isn’t about Hillary. Well, okay, it is.
But it isn’t only about her. It’s also about every woman who has ever been underestimated, failed to get credit for work she did or been denied opportunities to do work at which she would have excelled.
With Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential primary victories in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island last week, Democratic voters continue to evaluate her abilities and her chances of winning in a general election — and are confronting the double bind that women in authority, including Clinton, face: If they speak in ways expected of leaders, they’re seen as too aggressive, but if they speak in ways expected of women, they’re seen as less confident and competent than they really are.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/07/AR2008030702844_pf.html
Finns – no doubt.
your brilliant tapdancing strategy has changed the entire campaign, and it is only fair to give both candidates the benefits of your talent. After all we have a common enemy to defeat: rollerblading.
The use of the word ‘monster’ to describe HRC had me googling – I looked up John Knox’s 16th century treatise ‘The First Blast of the Trumpet Against the Monstrous Regiment of Women’ and came across this gem –
‘The Monstrous Regiment of Women, The Gunn Brother’s second documentary, goes all out to demolish the feminist worldview. From a consistently Christian perspective, they show how feminism has had a devastating impact on the church, state, and family.
Starting with the infamous 16th century essay written by the reformer John Knox against the reigning female monarch, the Gunn Brothers find plenty of application to America’s political landscape; where feminists vie for every possible office including the presidency.
Featuring an all star, all female cast, the Gunn Brothers prove that feminism has in fact restricted choices for all women, brought heartache to the lives of many, and perpetuated the largest holocaust since the beginning of time.’
OK, I’m convinced – Hillary is a feminist, therefore Hillary is a monster.
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