Antony Green is live-blogging the Brisbane City Council election count (first results should come through in about 30 minutes), so rather than set up in competition with him, I think it’s best if we all head over there.
UPDATE: Feel free though to use this thread to discuss the results if you’re finding Antony’s multiple posts problematic.
UPDATE 2: You can also feel free to discuss councils other than Brisbane.
UPDATE 3: Looks like I can’t help myself. Live blogging follows below:
7.30pm Brisbane time: ABC computer now predicting a huge win for Campbell Newman plus a Liberal majority on council, though Antony still expressing caution about the latter.
7.40pm: Although it seems Ross Vasta’s bid for Wynnum-Manly has failed with a vengeance.
8.05pm: The Liberals needed a notional gain of three seats to win the council. As I see it, they have won Marchant and Holland Park. Parkinson, Enoggera, Doboy, Central and Northgate are all in play (perhaps also Jamboree, where counting proceeds at a snail’s pace), but the Liberals only lead in the first two. I suspect Labor will pull further ahead in Central as more figures come in.
8.35pm: Further figures have moved Holland Park back to the doubtful column, but the Liberals are now home in Parkinson. So the Liberals still need to bag one more doubtful ward. Holland Park is the only one where they are ahead – they are slightly behind in Enoggera, Doboy and Northgate. Labor pulling further ahead in Central, but Greens preferences are a possible wild card here.
8.47pm: Antony Green says Jamboree is now in the Liberal gain column, but the ABC computer figures are lagging badly here. The ECQ shows a Liberal 54.25-45.75 lead on two-party preferred with 44 per cent counted, which sounds pretty convincing. So you could almost call it for a Liberal majority at this point.
8:54pm: More figures in at ABC, and the Liberals have recovered their earlier handsome lead in Holland Park, probably putting any doubts about their majority to rest.
9.04pm: Antony, who has more up to date figures, suggests the four Liberal gains are all holding firm and they are only slightly behind in Enoggera. Doboy still looks in doubt to me, but maybe Antony knows something I don’t.
162 Comments
Try the http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au website, some figures coming in.
Big Bob Abbott to be new mayor of the council he opposed.
THUMP! – How Labor should not run a campaign(-:
There’s a bit of delicious irony.
sad!
Libs not polling well on Gold Coast, despite massive campaign.
Hey Possum. Want to do a roller-coaster on this one?
Hehehehe the Liberals are actually winning something HURRAY! FINALLY!
AG – the campaign can pretty much be described as ‘what campaign?’
By both sides. Few advertisements, next to no baby kissing, zero community activism, no themes, no grand plans for why you should vote for anyone. It’s not like Brisbane doesnt have serious issues to deal with. It was the most hopeless election I’ve ever seen.
And it showed – when I voted today, most of the rest of the voters were just pissed off that they had to go and put pencil to paper in the first place.
Pollercoaster the local council elections – it’s be easier to pollercoaster the voters interest.
Dead flat line
I hear ya!
Bob Abbott claims victory – before his opponent concedes, bad form.
The Liberals needed a notional gain of three seats to win the council. As I see it, they have won Marchant and Holland Park. Parkinson, Enoggera, Doboy, Central and Northgate are all in play, but the Liberals only lead in the first two. I suspect Labor will pull further ahead in Central as further figures come in.
Well Shanahan can now write that the ALP lose support in Brisbane the home of Rudd!
Something tells me there is no connection but yeah no need to spoil a good story.
Remember the old saying, “be careful what you wish for”.
If the Libs get up with a bare majority in Brisbane City Council, then “Can-Do” may well live to regret it and feel like his next 4 years are being spent in Purgatory!
At least with a majority Cabinet consisting of experienced Labor Councillors, he was able to get most of his program through without much difficulty.
If Can-Do now has to appoint an inexperienced Cabinet with the certainty of many of them belonging to differing factions, then he may well find that the previous arrangement was a piece of cake once the Lib Factional Warlords and their range of vested interests start to take over the running of the Council.
The electors in the various Wards may also come to regret their decision to give the Libs a go. This mob will not be running things for the benefit of ordinary citizens. They will be running it for the benefit of the big end of town.
Your right Scorpio but what case did Labor put forward to make a difference?
Aussie g, from what I could see, Labor ran dead during the campaign and the Libs spent a motza and campaigned fairly hard.
There has to be a better reason than complacency to explain it but I don’t know for the life of me what it is.
In the new “Super Council” of Rockhampton, which is a strong Labor area, there was not one single candidate running on an ALP ticket from what I could determine.
Some of the candidates ran with the green colour of the Nats and others used Lib blue, but there was no direct linkage with any political party. Strange to say the least because this has never happened here before.
Holy shite! If the libs win the Brissy city council – what comes next? Nuclear power stations … clogged drains … leaves on the nice footpaths …
I am scared and fear for the future.
I’ll go check the Rocky figures … http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/RomaRegionalCouncil/results/councillor/district1.html
when they come thru but I dont know who the Labor candidates are!
Sorry…. Rocky is here! http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/RockhamptonRegionalCouncil/results/councillor/summary.html
Further figures have moved Holland Park back to the doubtful column, but the Liberals are now home in Parkinson. So the Liberals still need to bag one more doubtful ward. Holland Park is the only one where they are ahead – they are slightly behind in Enoggera, Doboy and Northgate. Labor pulling further ahead in Central, but Greens preferences are a possible wild card here.
Antony says Jamboree is now in the Liberal gain column, but the rest of us don’t have serious figures from the ward yet.
Aussieguru01 Says: @ 16,
According to this unhappy commenter on Antony’s ABC site, not much.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2008/03/labor-losing-en.html#more
ruawake, anyone who beats a schmuck like Natoli 70/30 is entitled to claim victory early if Joey “The Bigot”was slow to concede. My feelings about Natoli are in this short LP thread.
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/14/brisbane-votes-ii/
Btw, Russell Green got up in our division. Is Vivian Griffin your new councillor?
As you wryly note: “Big Bob Abbott to be new mayor of the council he opposed.”
The old reverse psychology with twist was too much for Natoli to handle.
Basically, from the time Natoli threatened to sue the charity organisers of a fundraiser at Nambour Showground, when Joey Macho insisted on riding a bull against the advice of many and hurt his back when thrown off, his political goose was cooked. That, mon ami, was form far worse than declaring victory early so Coasters could get on with their “avagoodweegend” imperatives.
are we really so hopeless and desparate that we blog LOCAL COUNCIL elections-give me a break!!! and glen, quite happy for your lot to win at this level!!
You can always piss off somewhere else, Andrew.
LOL William!
well as someone who dosnt live in Brisbane i must say im quite upbeat about the results. Liberals seem to thrive when they have someone else to blame for their own misgivings. Let this be a reminder to the good people of brisbane next time a state/federal election comes along. Im sure he will find a way to blame the state government or inter state migration but it will look that more pathetic.
“Can Do Campbell” learned something from “Kevin 07″ – Brand yourself…not your party!
hey all
in other news
Townsville – long-serving Labor Mayor Tony Mooney is out – former Thuringowa Mayor Les Tyrell is in.
Cairns – Kevin Byrne is in deep, deep trouble – Val Schier looks like she will take it.
Goldie – Ron Clarke looks safe – just.
#26 William LMAO that’s the kind of moderation we’d all like to do, but, all too often, can’t. Great.
Paroo Shire – So much for the beat up about the bloke who wanted to expell the local Black fellas. He got all of 12 votes.
The Qld Electoral Commission web site is pretty slow in posting results up on Councils further north than Rocky.
The early results for Mooney in Townsville look bad but most of the count has still to come in.
Noticed a number of long standing Mayors and Councillors loosing their seats. The electors probably felt that this was as good an opportunity as any to get rid op poor performers and let in some new blood.
The fact is that the Libs DID run a better campaign than Labor in Brisbane – their message was “Give Campbell a go – he’s being obstructed by a hostile council”. Labor did some kind of cod-Machiavellian thing where they thought they’d hold onto the wards, implant some messages about Newman for ‘12 and get away with running a mayoral candidate (who was clearly out of his depth) without giving him anything good to say. I’m a lefty at heart, but Labor deserve this – they thought they could get away with it and they didn’t.
Does anyone really care. Hell, let them have this election. Down here local elections are as important as putting out your bins. Actually less important -more people put out their bins by far than vote in the local elections.
Libs campaigned in all 14 divisions of Gold Coast, haven’t seen one that even looks like winning, and last time I looked their mayoral candidate was running third.
And in WA, ours Concils aren’t Party Political as in the East, though if you look carefully you’ll see some sort of poltical leanings of councillors.
Newman’s vote is about 2.2% of the national voting population. So he has almost caught up to Nelson.
I’m interested in politics big time but I don’t know whether the councillors in my ward are Labor, Liberal or what. Never have. John So is our Lord Mayor and I have no idea of his political leanings.
It might be sad to be covering Local Government elections, but yeah if William has needed to cover it so the Liberal people have something to celebrate then so be it
Please listen QLD Labor – No guts, No glory! You got the bitch slap you deserved & I voted for you too!
Local Goverment tends to blur the normal political map.
I may be wrong but John So is a Liberal person, but from what I understand he is not a party member.
Gary, your municipality has a population of 71,380. The City of Brisbane has 956,129, and its council is in charge of services including water and public transport.
Frank – Not all the Councils elections in the East are directly party political. Brisbane is kind of unique as it is so big that both major parties run. And I think it is first time the Liberals ran seriously in the Gold Coast.
In Melbourne and Sydney, I am fairly sure the Liberals don’t endorse candidates directly.
Exactly BillBowe –
Brisbane is by far the biggest local government in Australia (it may still be the biggest in the world – geographically speaking). It’s budget is twice the state of Tasmania.
All this makes it worth covering here at PB – so thanks WB for doing so.
44 B.S. Fairman – “In Melbourne and Sydney, I am fairly sure the Liberals don’t endorse candidates directly.” I think you are right.
I’m just expressing my reasons why I can’t get excitied over local elections that’s all. Thanks William for the info.
I know. I am hardly excited by it either. If I didn’t have the flu, I would be out on the town tonight instead of blogging about who gets to decide which nights the bins go out.
Scorpio at 23 – thanks for quoting me here. I’m still as mad as hell that Labor gave me no one worth voting for. Rowell was clearly out of his depth and the local candidate for Enoggera (Dart) is a Labor apparachik who doesn’t even live in the Ward. Am I the only one who is getting sick and tired of Labor foisting on the electorate these kids who have done nothing with their lives but work in a Labor office??
It’s a disgrace! And now we’re stuck with a Liberal Council – not because they deserved to win but because Labor deserved to be given a serious belting!!
It sounds to me, from comments made here, Labor in Brisbane doesn’t take local elections too seriously either.
Labor deserve this result. They insulted the voters of Brisbane with their appaling campaign. I usually vote Labor, but gave Can Do the tick today. At least he articulated some kind of plan for the city, unlike the ALP. Besides, the Libs are better at local level, as the ALP seem to care more about “Green” Brisbane (read: busways, bus-lanes, cycle lanes etc), whereas the Libs are at least trying to put in more road infrastructure for those of us who need to drive.
It’s a very comprehensive victory for Newman – won the Mayoral vote in 24 of 26 wards. Note, though, that the scepticism expressed by William and others here on the disparity Galaxy showed between the Mayoral vote and the ward vote was wrong. On the ABC’s figures – it’s 9% – 14.5% to Newman and 5.5% to the Libs in the wards.
Liberals shouldn’t get too excited, though. The “Can-Do” campaign was an exercise in ignoring the Liberal brand. See here:
http://larvatusprodeo.net/2008/03/14/brisbane-votes-ii/
Anyone looking for federal implications might note that the two wards that swung to Labor were Morningside – smack in the middle of Kevin’s territory with a hard working local Councillor – and Wynnum Manly where Ross Vasta was trying to get in after being chucked out of Bonner in the federal election.
What will be interesting is now the Libs have a majority on Council, if they start acting like Liberals. Early in Newman’s term, he commissioned a consultants’ report which recommended the privatisation of everything and sweeping staff cuts (the BCC employs over 7000 people). He ran away from it. I’m not sure that people who aren’t from Brisbane realise that Labor also had a majority on the Civic Cabinet – effectively Ministers because the scope and reach of the BCC’s responsibilities are broad. A friend of mine on FB just suggested Labor should have stopped “cohabiting” in this fashion two years ago – but a lot of Councillors liked the extra dosh and the power, I guess. Still, they’ll have no chance to be anything but an opposition now, and I hope they come up with some “fresh thinking”.
Anyway, I’ll stop rabbiting on – I ended up liveblogging it sort of in the LP thread I’ve linked to!
Too many levels of gov’t. That’s all.
Except to say re Sinic at 51, I voted Labor but I agree they deserve this result. They ran a pathetic campaign. Big swing against Milton Dick – former state secretary – in what used to be yellow dog ALP territory in Richlands. But then the last few state and federal campaigns have effectively been outsourced to Hawker Britton!
Labor more or less conceded the Mayoralty, and their co-existence with the Libs in the Civic Cabinet meant that they couldn’t define an alternative agenda to Newman’s, having signed off on a lot of what he wanted.
It shouldn’t have been impossible to beat or at least put a dent in Newman’s lead.
Tomorrows Headline – http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/
Oh, the Courier-Mail finally get around to covering the campaign after it’s over!
The performance of the MSM in reporting what was an important election has been pathetic. Even if it was an uninspiring campaign, they should be covering it.
And what’s this?
Whatevs, Courier-Mail journo.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23376890-952,00.html
Hinchliffe is in trouble because of a big swing to his Liberal opponent, Vicki Howard!
http://www.abc.net.au/elections/brisbane/2008/guide/cent.htm
You’ve been a busy little blogger this evening Mark.
The MSM coverage up here in Capricornia has been abysmal also.
Two new Super Councils in the area and a good whack of the voting public going to the polls with barely a clue about most of the candidates.
As I said earlier in post 17, Labor didn’t bother to even run their brand up here let alone do any active campaigning.
Scorpio, I was thinking of going to an election night party but I figured it’d be less depressing to sit in front of the computer with a six-pack!
I’m five beers down, so I won’t look for the link – but re the coverage in Capricornia, I thoroughly agree with what Jason Wilson said on an earlier post about the Qld local gov’t elections – have the media just decided it’s too hard to cover local elections? Too boring? Pffft to that. Elections matter.
However, if the Libs or anyone could actually figure out how to get greater Brissie to work, most of us would be in awe. BTW does anyone know if a large chunk of the Town Hall is still teetering on collapsing? Down it’s own orifice, as it were?
Yes it is.
Mark,
I would have to agree with you that most of the Labor post election parties would seem more like a wake than a celebration.
Much better for your own self esteem to stay away from too much doom & gloom.
Question re Council Elections in Qld, here in WA Voting isn’t Compulsory, what is the go over there ?
Over here, voter turnout for council elections is pretty poor. Also, it’s first past the post as well, and in most councils it is now all done via Postal Voting.
Well, it was one of the wards where a Labor candidate was re-elected! But I still suspect the vibe wouldn’t have been great.
Anyway, nice to chat! I went to uni with your local Federal member, incidentally!
64 was addressed to Scorpio at 62. Crossed with Frank.
Frank, it’s compulsory, and it’s optional preferential just like the state elections here. But unlike the state elections the Councils all have four year fixed terms and the whole state votes on the same day.
For those with memories of Howard’s attempted wedges last year, it’s also interesting to observe that the fast-tracking of the Council amalgamations which were supposedly going to destroy Rudd in Qld was to fit in with the fixed term timetable for today’s elections. I suspect no one remembers the results of any of the plebiscites Howard legislated for, or even if they ever happened.
Beattie was right to hold his nerve!
I can see some troubled waters ahead for these new Super Councils.
Naked parochialism is bound to rear its ugly head and the early council meetings should be quite interesting.
I think Beattie made a mistake with this amalgamation process thinking it would be a relatively smooth transformation like the previous one.
The big problem this time is the distance between many of the towns gathered into the enlarged Authorities and the varied range of supporting industry bases of many of them.
Rockhampton result is appalling. There was no one for labor people to vote in the mayorality. Rocky votes 70% ALP at state and federal elections. The supposedly ALP outgoing mayor endorsed a rapid right wing ideologue.
The town was full full of labour people who couldn’t bring themselves to vote tories.
She did very well for Labor in the Federal Election I must say.
Yeah!
A lot of “insiders” were claiming that she was going to go backwards against the trend but I didn’t believe it!
I agree it might be more than teething problems for the Super Councils. But I think Beattie thought it would take two elections at least for things to really mesh in together.
Does anyone know whether Bob Abbott ran a ticket for the Sunshine Coast?
I was also interested to see “Snow” Manners – the great anti-recycled water campaigner – get precisely nowhere in Toowoomba.
collingwoodlegend Says:
You’re dead right there colly. I’ll check again tomorrow and see if the count has advanced more towards a final figure, but so far, I think there is only one readily identifyable Labor Councillor elected.
No ALP person for Mayor of Rockhampton! was their a reason for that, I was under the impression that after Mt Isa this was the ALP’s second strongest Town in Queensland
Mark,
If you cast your mind back to about June last year, I confidently stated that she would have an increased majority and easily retain the seat.
There were some who cast doubt on that and also on my predictions of picking up Flynn and Dawson.
Local knowledge always has an edge on wishfull thinking. I always thought that Hinkler was going to be too tough though.
The main reason for that was the local branches supporting substandard candidates previously and the electorate is now suspicious of the quality of anyone that they put up.
I agree, Scorpio. I noticed that when I was writing about the state election in 06 – I was trying to source info from all over the place, but the further I got from Brissie and areas I knew the thinner ground I felt I was on. It often doesn’t appear to affect commentariat pundits though, but then they never apparently have to admit it when the get things wrong.
It was a pity about Hinkler.
Anyway, it was good fun winning money on Centrebet on Flynn, Dawson and Forde!
I only had a punt on seats in Qld, SA (where I spent a week during the election campaign), and Sydney (where I also spent a few days just before voting day). Worked for me! I wouldn’t have risked my dosh on seats in Melbourne or Perth, for example.
Mexican Beemer Says:
I’ve got no idea MB. The local Branches have probably just gone into hibernation after the Federal election and are saving up their energy for the next State poll.
Most probably there was no Labor Member willing and able to put their hand up to put in the hard yards and run.
In a lot of respects, Rocky is more of a strong hold for Labor than Mt. Isa. I have lived and worked in both cities.
“Does anyone know whether Bob Abbott ran a ticket for the Sunshine Coast?”
Mark, quite a few of the divisional candidates gave their imprimatur to Bob. But if there was any public reciprocity from The Big Fellah, I didn’t glom it, but havn’t had a real hawk-eye on the campaign till Natoli’s dog-whistle two days ago.
Same here Mark. I also got a nice little pick-up on Maxine in Bennalong.
Funnily enough, I offered to have a bet of $100 on Maxine to beat Howard with a local Liberal bigmouth in early September and he refused saying that there was absolutely no way Howard would be beaten and he didn’t want to take my money.
I felt at the time that this was typical of most die-hard Coalition supporters, that Howard was invincible and that there was no way that they would lose Government.
They are still having difficulty coming to grips with it. The “born to rule” mentality is fairly well ingrained.
With 47% of the primary vote, it looks like Val Schier is the new mayor here in Cairns. She ran a tight campaign and released information about campaign funding before the vote.
My commiserations to the spivs and developers who funded the losing candidate. They will be crying in their bulldozers and hill side developments about that one. Interesting that he will reveal his funding after the election is held.
Compared to state and federal elections, it was strange to hear all day on radio and TV political ads imploring us to vote one way or the other. The media blackout that applies in these other contests is not employed for council elections.
At any rate, Scorpio, I’m glad I didn’t take the bet on the biggest swing in the Brisbane wards to the Libs being the one against Milton Dick!
Yeah, I was surprised at the strength of the swings. But probably not as surprised as some of the Party Operatives.
Yep, when I read the comment here that the ALP’s Enogerra candidate was trying to cuddle up to Campbell, I figured they were dead in the water.
That’s either desparate or dumb. Or both.
But I reckon they did some polling this week which showed them which way the wind was blowing. From what I heard, they thought they’d be ok a fortnight ago.
Glad to see George Megalogenis back on deck in the OZ.
At least he puts a bit of effort into researching an issue prior to writing an article on it and comes across as a “reporter” rather than an “opinion” writer.
His Blog in yesterdays OZ had a steady stream of commenter’s and he saw fit to jump in every now and again and set some of the more deranged commenter’s straight.
The main thing though, is there is a sense of balance to his writing which is sadly lacking in most of his contemporaries.
That’s probably the main reason why they got such a pasting.
I was surprised that Helen Abrahams got beaten. The redistribution may have been a factor there. She seemed to have a fairly strong support base in the Gap but it apparently didn’t hold at the Gabba.
There may have been other factors of which I am unaware though.
She should pull through! – http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/BrisbaneCity/results/councillor/district21.html
It just goes to show that one should wait till all the booth figures are in before writing a candidate off.
Those last two booths must have been solid Labor booths because she was well behind when I last checked.
I’m glad to see she got up. I have known her for a long time and was surprised to see her so far behind seeing she has always to my knowledge, been a very capable and active Councillor.
The Sunshine Coast Regional Council looks like being.
Bob Abbott – Mayor
GROSSKREUTZ, Anna
DWYER, Tim
DICKSON, Christian
HUNGERFORD, Ted
BLUMEL, Debbie
GRIFFIN, Vivien
GREEN, Russell
BRENNAN, Lew
With 4 divisions in doubt.
The only candidate endorsed by Abbott was Russel Green.
In div 9 Cate Malloy and Bruce Dunne had a preference deal, plus Dunne’s major support base (the surf club) would have had a lot of people pre-poll voting because of the surf championships on the Gold Coast – maybe closer than it looks.
Cate Malloy loses her 3rd election in a row State, Federal then Local.
Debbie Blumel former Labor candidate for everything finally wins an election.
I notice what seems to be a high percentage (around 5%) of informal votes right across the Gold Coast, given that we have optional preferential, hard to understand unless there is a large protest component.
Statewide wrap over at Queensland Decides Big results in Townsville, Cairns and the Sunny Coast, Libs spanked on the Goldie.
Five of the ten councillors elected in Rocky are ALP members. But they will probably not work together.
The outgoing Mayor who is an ALP member supported using Workchoices, she claimed she had no alternative due to LGAQ advice.
I’d love to know who though the member for Capricornia would go backwards? She seems to be often underrated within the ALP and by the conservatives.
About time too, ruawake. How many times has she been a candidate now?
Finally a Liberal gets to follow in the path of ALP state govts: narrow first-up victory and then a landslide.Good for Barry O’Farrell in 2014…
This is all a bit strange viewed from SA. Are the council elections in Qld openly Labor vs Liberal? Over here the party affiliation of council candidates is never mentioned. Is Adelaide the odd one out?
Great result in Richlands. Largest swing (15%) in an Ward… had it not been for the redistribution (and loss of Forest Lake), the Libs would have won. This is a swing larger Forde, and they still loss.
Diogenes, in Victoria, council candidates may be openly either Lib. or Lab. or Green, or not openly stated or Independent.
Diogenes – Brisbane City Council is normally openly Labor vs Liberal and must be the exception to the rule. With the other councils it’s not mentioned much, but I think us political tragics know where the affiliations lie and thus discuss it that way.
Also I wanted to say well done to Drew Hutton in my ward of The Gabba, 27% of the vote is no mean feat. Conversely Helen Abrahams is a solid local member and it was good to see she held on.
Well some comments:
First, I’m not surprised Newman won; when I was in Brisbane a week ago I got absolutely no perception of a desire for change against Newman. Several people I asked didn’t even know who the Liberal mayoral candidate was. Also, personal bias on transport planning matters here but Newman has tried to fix Brisbane’s transport problems, unlike the former Federal Liberal government. State Labor is working hard on transport now, but they did very little from 2000 to 2004, when the problem really developed.
Delighted to see Bob Abbott win the Sunshine Coast mayoral contest. In my experience he is a person genuinely committed to improving quality of life, and not just a stooge in developers pockets. Given that he came from the smallest of the three previous Councils (Noosa 50000 pop vs Maroochy 120000 and Caloundra 90000) it showed that people in the new combined city could see past local parochialism and vote for the best candidate.
I was disappointed with the lack of any campaign by Labor…if they thought they could ride on the shirt-tail of the fed election, they were mistaken.
At least the Liberals made themselves visible, but I will not consider voting for them at any level until all the members of the former federal government are long gone and they re-invent themselves.
Yep…voted Green as opposed to informal and it will be interesting to see what spin the Liberals will put on it in question time.
96 Ogmios – why would the Libs ask about a council election in federal parliament in question time. Seems like a waste of a question to me.
The only people remotely interested or knowing of the council elections and the result are your political tragics and many Queenslanders and even some of those see it as a minor event.
Sorry I should have said people didn’t know who the Labour candidate for Brisbane Mayor was. But perhaps that is the point.
Is there some chance that Labour polling told them a while ago that Newman would win so they basically just ran dead in a contest where there are no $ per vote as in State and Federal elections?
Gary
That is true but I think it is a regrettable view. Despite its low interest and level of media scrutiny, local governments make decisions that can affect communities for better and for worse.
In my experience in government local government was always the least scrutinised level of government but often the most crooked. In Qld, where I came from, Councillors having a “material conflict of interest” while voting on development approvals did not even become an offence until the 1992 LG Act!
My description of local government would be:
“Government of the real estate developers, by the real estate developers, for the real estate developers”.
97
Gary, I’m willing to wager that a snide remark will be made in some way this week in parliament from either side.
Loser to mail William $50…I’m game.
101 Ogmios – I’m not suggesting it won’t come up at all, as in a snide remark. I’m suggesting it will not be the main focus of a question. Are you? Big difference.
Gary…I do not believe it will be the focus of a question at all.
So bets off…I’ll still sending William the money though…haven’t contributed for months.
Joe Hockey is already out of the starting block claiming Newman’s win demonstrates a Lib revival:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/03/16/2190687.htm?WT.mc_id=newsmail
As Graham Young says, this is “baloney”:
http://qlddecides.com/Latest/Newman-s-victory-one-for-Campbell.html
Collingwoodlegend at 88, the “Livermore will be in trouble” story started in the Crikey guide to the election – apparently based on a view that coal miners wouldn’t like Labor’s climate change stance and some spin from someone or other that she wasn’t a good local member or campaigner. It then spread throughout the punditariat, and was being mentioned in the campaign itself. I got through to the Crikey folks to tell them it was almost certainly wrong – but once something like that takes off among Canberra based commentators who probably never go anywhere near Brisbane let alone Rocky, it stuck.
It’s an interesting case study in itself of how MSM political “analysis” works.
I should add that I really appreciated the fact that Charles Richardson from Crikey took the time to actually come up here and travel round all the marginals talking to folks in order to inform his writing on the election, rather than sitting in Canberra, Sydney or Melbourne pontificating as too many “insiders” do. So good on him.
Would one of the brilliant psephologists here please explain to me the acronym OO ? I imagine it is the old GG?
Cheers everyone
Opposition Organ, I believe!
Opposition Orifice would be better.
While were at it can some one explain the acronym MSM as well ?
MSM = Main Stream Media
Thanks Mark, sounds apt.
There’s little connection between the BCC election and the state of the Liberal Party – Brisbane politics doesn’t necessarily have much connection with national or state politics. Brisbane politics seems to me to be quite pragmatic and has, since Soorley was Lord Mayor, been about the person and “their team” more than the Liberal/Labor brand.
It’s a bit hard to claim the BCC election is a Liberal revivial when Newman’s campaign id everything it could to hide the Liberal brand during the campaign. This result is Newman’s – with some major contribution from an inept ALP.
So will Drew Hutton now FINALLY stand aside and let others in the Greens undertake their perennial tour of duty as a candidate hog?
Thanks Darryl.
Was Brisbane a case of Labor not coming to terms with fact they had lost the last election and behaving like a govt in exile? If you look at Labor’s recovery from the early 1990s wipeouts it seems that a bad loss can be recovered from quicker than a narrow one.
Good thought Geoff.
Labor seemed to hold the view that they were beaten last time because Newman was easier to market than Tim Quinn. The fact that they maintained a strong majority in the chamber led them to believe that they still had the confidence of the electorate – and so they did little to examine why they lost the Lord Mayoralty.
Big mistake. But as you say, the large thumping this time may lead them to do some serious work on regaining the confidence of the voters in 4 years.
re BrissyRod @113
Drew may be a perennial candidate but he didn’t run for Mayor this time (he ran in The Gabba, encompassing parts of the old Dutton Park & East Brisbane), The Mayoral vote grew for the Greens this time around.
I did notice was the exhaust rate for Green candidates – seemed to be about 65%. Were there no direction of preferences? And while the ALP lost considerable ground the Greens maintained their vote across Brisbane and even ran in areas they’ve not covered before. However, the Green vote seemed to be decreasing in the northern suburbs, increasing in central & south-eastern Brisbane, and static in the west.
It’s quite obvious to me. The electorate clearly didn’t want Labor to be in power everywhere in Australia. Wall to wall Labor and all that.
John Howard and Dennis Shanahan got it right this critically important election for all Australians.
yes OO is the Opposition Orifice, the only functioning part of the Liberal party at the moment.
I don’t think people see council elections in terms of left or right politics or do they draw any connection between candidates and one party or another. The only issue of late [considering the laughable state of the Libs and Nats in Qld of late] that may have made some consider delivering an anti-ALP vote was the emotive council amalgamations issue. I guess people riled by that were more likely to get and vote.
I am glad that William has drawn the line at Council elections because I fail to see the significance or ideology of sewage, drainage and curb & guttering. Maybe some of you can enlighten me what it means for labour or liberal managerial determination of the biggest council in Australia?
What ideological underpinning is there for the running of a local office that sub contracts out many services. Is there a train of thought that gives precedent to certain ideals. ? I would of thought that council control of services was based on intimate knowledge of voter prejudices rather than federal prerogative.
BCC doesn’t subcontract out services, which is the whole point I was making earlier about the danger of the Libs actually acting according to their ideology – re the earlier comment about the consultants report Newman received in his first term recommending the privatisation of everything.
BCC has over 7000 employees and is responsible within its municipal area (with a population just short of 1 million) for many things state governments do in other capital cities – major roads, most public transport, water, a lot of infrastructure, cultural facilities, etc. Surely this point has been made often enough on this thread.
The City Budget is 1.5 billion dollars.
Do we need to justify further why this election mattered?
The Greens directed preferences in only two wards – Morningside (to the Libs) and Holland Park (to Labor). The Libs and Labor ran just vote one tickets for the Mayoralty and every ward.
That’s a very optimistic spin.
The Greens shouldn’t have gone backwards in the Mayoral vote when there was bugger all difference between Labor and Liberal in policy. At best The Greens maintained their vote in the wards, and Drew deserves some credit for establishing a basis in the areas of the new Gabba ward where no candidate had previously been run. But none of the folks from The Greens I talked to today were feeling chipper.
Basically, The Greens failed to gain any new votes, except where they hadn’t run before, and went a little backwards if you take into account areas where there had been Greens running in the past and across the city for the Mayoral race. Static is probably about the most favourable description for their performance, sadly.
That’s spot on, Geoff, except they weren’t even in exile. As I’ve observed earlier in the thread, they still held a majority of spots in Civic Cabinet. So they were in effect in an uneasy and unstable coalition with Newman. They should have withdrawn at least two years ago, given up the Ministerial style salaries, and acted like an opposition. Then they might have had a shot of winning. Short term power trumped electoral sense.
Sacha, you forget how strongly Soorley spoke out on many social issues (such as Indigenous reconciliation) which had little to do with his actual responsibilities. He certainly did a fair bit towards branding himself as Labor – and left Labor at that.
A four to one spending spree.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/03/16/1205602177880.html
The complete lack of any real campaign by Labor still puzzles the hell out of me. Who was managing it – and are they still employed today?
125 – The campaign director is/was Anthony Chisholm. Yes, he is still employed.
BrissyRod
Why?
No one should blame Athony Chislom for the Labor debacle, if blame has to placed it should be with Milton Dick and David Hinchcliffe for not having the ticker to run for mayor.
Collingwood – I’m more than happy to see the blame shared. So long as it comes to rest where it should – and that changes are made
“No one should blame Athony Chislom for the Labor debacle, if blame has to placed it should be with Milton Dick and David Hinchcliffe for not having the ticker to run for mayor.”
Peter Brent (Mumble) says the Party leader is always blamed for a loss, and the Campaign Manager always gets credit for a win. :^)
But seriously, given the shocking state of the ALP campaign and the size of the swings against both Hinchcliffe and Dick, it’s hard to see how either of those two could have made any difference at all. In fact, if Hinchcliffe hadn’t been the sitting councillor, Central would be safely Liberal.
d
I think Milton should be blamed for the campaign and for Greg Rowel. I think Hinchcliffe should have run for Mayor, it takes a truely remarkable person to win the mayoralty without council experience, a Jim Soorely or a Campbell Newman. A political novice like Rowell, who was constantly undermined by the ALP coucillors during the campaign had no chance.
Credit to Rowell for having a go condemnation to Milton Dick for sending him ‘over the top’, to be slaughtered.
I agree completely Collingwood. Rowell was totally out of his depth and shouldn’t have been there. Dick lived up to his name with that decision. As for being undermined by councillors – he was certainly undermined by the Enoggera candidate’s letter to the residents that arrived 2 days before the election. If anything sealed my vote for the Greens (and I’m a rusted-on Labor voter) it was that letter. It was disgraceful.
As for Dick, he looks like surviving the biggest swing against Labor in the city. Which probably means he won’t learn much.
I want to see Labor return to power in Brisbane (and I want to be able to vote for them next time) so here’s some pointers:
1. Be a positive Opposition. Put forward positive policies that present a plan for a sustainable and liveable city into the future.
2. Emphasise improving public transport and weaning us off our reliance on cars.
3. Beware conflicts of interest. Receiving donations from developers is not a good look.
4. Choose your mayoral candidate by mid-term. Find someone with clear local government (or other relevant management experience), good people and media skills (and give them some training in this!) and give her/him 2 years to market themselves to the community. 10 months is not enough time!
re Mark @123
Well, I’ve said before that i DO have political leanings…
But that said, I worked from the ABC website and noted the shift in votes across Brisbane with a small but perceptible improvement in the overall vote. Yes, they went backwards in some wards – I wont venture an opinion as to why as I don’t know the areas at all well, but question whether it should be seen as a general trend or related more to the individual candidates, policies and activities in each ward. I have long held that the Greens aren’t about to make spectacular breakthroughs (Cunningham notwithstanding) but will improve steadily over time, perhaps with a contraction in some areas (especially in Lib held seats as people consider the Greens as a broadly based party that just the environment – hence the loss of votes across north Sydney at the last Federal election).
Perhaps more importantly is that they are running in areas not covered before, are getting reasonable 3rd party/independent votes (9-11%) in a number of seats (particularly in the south of the city) and could potentially influence future election outcomes.
So, optimistic spin? Maybe, but it also depends on your expectations.
re Zedder @ 121
There is a lot more to Council than roads, rates and rubbish these days. The political and ideological motivations of Councillors does influence there attitude to planning (whether development, transport responses or urban open space), and has strong implications for attitude to Council provded community services such as Libraries, childcare housing support, bicycle provision etc.
And then there is question of party cultures in this – consider the very real negative influences of political party donations in the administration of cities like Wollongong and Liverpool, and their potentially corrupting influence.
Does anyone have any historical data on the percentage of voters who choose to go full preferential in Qld, rather than optional?
134 The Queensland Electoral Commission website will tell you the number of votes that exhausted, Basil.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/local/lg2008/groupIndex.html
Thanks Steve
State elections are boring enough – but city council elections are more boring than the proverbial batsh-t. Personally, I couldn’t care less which party will decide the colour of bin lids in Brisbane City.
Lucky we’re not in America, otherwise we’d have to put up with threads with even more boring races than council elections – eg. the primary elections for the Ada County dog catcher…
Piss off, John.
If its so boring how did he get all the way to the bottom of the thread?
He “had to put up with it”, apparently. He’s banned now.
Gulp.
Keep up the good work William.
Without sites like yours all us political tragics would have nowhere to go.
Ferny Grover @ 132 – some excellent points. I hope they are not wasted on the Labor hierarchy.
BrissyRod – Of course they’re wasted on the Labor heirarchy.
But we can only try!
A mayoral candidate needs to paint a picture ….. a vision of what may need to be done. With Newman it was tunnels. Poor Greg Rowell had nothing to offer & his council team ran a mile. Where to from here & will lessons be learned by Labor??
The QEC has defended itself against criticism from the Local Government Association about the running of the ballot on Saturday.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/electoral-commission-rejects-poll-stuffup-claims/2008/03/18/1205602359447.html
145 [Where to from here & will lessons be learned by Labor??]
From here it is on to the next state election and lessons will have to be learned from this dog of a campaign that was run here. Put this one down to another confirmation of the ‘disunity is death’ theory. If Labor doesn’t have all it’s parts working towards a win, they lose badly every time. Too many just put in no effort and reaped the rewards of their inaction.
Similarly the Liberals on the Gold Coast found that truckloads of money will not overcome a disjointed and nasty campaign.
Anthony Chisholm MUST take a proportion of the blame for the disasterous campaign waged by the ALP. Civic Caucus, of course, must take the other part of ‘the blame’ too.
So why Chisholm? As I have said before ‘you cant take the position (campaign director) if you can’t take the responsibility that goes with it’. Of course, Milton Dick should share some of that blame with his good friend Anthony.
I should add one more pointer to my list at 132:
5. Stop dumping candidates on us whose only life experience has been working as a Labor staffer. Give us people to vote for who have contributed something to the community (and I don’t mean those who joined some local community group because they were a candidate and needed to show some ‘community involvement’ on their CV).
BrissyRod @ 148
There’s more than enough blame to go around. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a more lacklustre and disorganised campaign in my life. Of course Chisolm should shoulder the responsibility – as should Dick, Hinchliffe, the entire campaign committee and probably most of the counsellors who were so focussed on tripping up the Lord Mayor that they failed to come up with any kind of vision or plan for Brisbane’s future. They failed our trust and consequently lost it.
It won’t be easily regained and Labor must not make the mistake of thinking that they simply have to wait till Newman fails. They need to present a credible alternative.
Ferny Grover – I agree totally.
There was NO plan – which was reflective of the lack of a strategy of how Labor was going to deal with being in a majority with a hostile Lord Mayor.
I know Labor supporters were very angry last Saturday. They saw that Labor had not campaigned and ‘rewarded’ the ALP with its worst City result in 20 years. To see solid Labor booths in my own area swing heavily to the Liberals is indicative of this.
The Liberal Party now has 16 seats and the ALP has 10 seats in the Brisbane City Council Chamber. This is one of the worst ALP results in a Brisbane City Council election since the late 1980s. I was very surprised on Saturday night, that the Liberal Party got a large swing in the ALP heartland of Brisbane.
Yep, it’s a sad thing when you want to vote for a party but you genuinely can’t with a clear conscience.
Many Labor voters felt that way last Saturday. For gods sake Labor, next time mount a credible argument (this time you mounted no argument at all!), and back it up with candidates that we can have confidence will represent our communities. The candidate in Enoggera didnt even live in the ward! For a range of reasons he was found wanting – and consequently threw away a huge margin.
So now we have to put up with some Liberal kid with a seriously bad haircut who is just out of school and knows nothing about local government.
Well done Labor.
I for one am glad we have someone who is a bit younger and energetic to actually get something done. Better than Bennison who just dances to her own tune and better than some career politician with no real job experience apart from Labor staffing.
Given he has lived in the area his whole life I’d hazard a guess he knows a lot more about the needs of Enoggera than Dart.
Nice one Labor. Epic fail.
This is an amazing result for the Liberal Party. The last time the Liberal Party got a large swing in Queensland, was of course in the 1996 Federal Election, when the Liberal Party/National Party won every single seat in Queensland except Brisbane and Rankin. There is definately a groundswell and anger going against the Bligh Government.
Neville T, if you think this will translate into a good result for the libs in the state election I think you could ‘write your own ticket’ with any bookie about the Libs beating Bligh, so go on get on, or maybe your just talking thru your hat?
Neville,
Aussies have a wonderful ability to tell the difference between Commonwealth, State and Local governments. They can quite happily vote one way in a federal election and within weeks vote for the other side in a state or local council election. The candidates, policies and issues are entirely different and the electorate is well aware of this.
Which means that the BCC election tells us precisely nothing about the mood towards the Bligh government. The demise of the Labor state government has been loudly predicted by many loud voices at every election for the past 10 years. The result is invariably a thrashing of the Coalition.
Here’s a bold prediction – Labor will remain in power until the Libs become the dominant partner in the state coalition. Why? Because the great southeast (where most of the population lives) will not stomach a National Party premier ever again (and no, a new amalgamated conservative party headed by old Nats will not change a thing. It will, in all likelihood, cost them votes as rusted on Lib and Nat voters feel their side has ’sold out’ by any merger and cast their votes elsewhere. Watch for the rise of conservative independents if this happens).
So….I’d suggest you grow to like Anna. She may be around a while.
I think the only real message from the BCC election is weak pathetic oponents will be crushed!
It is hard to imagine the liberal party in Queensland being anything other than weak pathetic and lets through in self obessed for good message!
More test
:’( :-s {:-o {:-o {:-o x-P <:o)
:’-) |-O :@ `:-)
:-X :-K
It is a bit sad that my home city of Brisbane, is now in full control by the Liberal Party. How could Brisbane voters give the Liberal Party the council and the mayor at the same election? Giving the Liberal Party full control of Brisbane is just as bad as giving Howard full control of the Senate. David Hinchcliffe was doing a wonderful job, shame on you Brisbane.