Re #35, I also found the business you mention, but I also found there are two C O’Briens in Legana in the phonebook, so I am wary of assuming it’s the same person. Anyway, given that he is the sole challenger to a sitting member he seems extremely obscure; I certainly haven’t heard of him!

This online in the Examiner: “has worked in banking and in the tourism and landscaping business”, aged 46, ran “to give voters a choice”.

“Mr O’Brien said he had issues about the approval process of Gunns’ proposed pulp mill but believed the decision had to be accepted so people could move forward.”

More at http://northerntasmania.yourguide.com.au/news/breaking/general/finch-faces-a-challenge-for-his-legislative-council-seat/1221689.html

If you put speech marks around the name and add “Launceston” you get hits from a guy who seems to run a maintenance business, which fits with his occupation description on the TEC site. If it is the same Colin O’Brien it seems that his business was at some point based in Dilston on the other side of the Tamar to the seat of Rosevears (Dilston is in Windemere).

Check out the Launceston Examiner site tomorrow and there’s likely to be something, I suspect.

Following yesterday’s close of nominations for the upper house elections, it has been revealed that two-horse races will proceed in both divisions. In Huon, Paul Harriss will face Greens candidate Mark Rickards, a former Royal Australian Navy officer and candidate for Franklin at the 2006 state election. Kerry Finch faces a challenge in Rosevears from independent Colin O’Brien, who would appear to be the proprietor of a bed and breakfast at Legana just outside of Launceston.

Newspaper archive searches on O’Brien have drawn a blank.

Might not have been such a good idea for Kons to acquiesce in his staffer’s sacking … it was his staffer who got the sack for bagging Lennon wasn’t it?

(I have no evidence of course.)

Labor majority: 29%
Liberal majority: 2%
No majority: 69%

I think the Liberals vote at around 32% is below what their support “should” be. It has been kept this low by, first, an amateur-hour campaign in 2002 by an unelectable Bob Cheek as leader, and then, as Kevin points out, a very poor campaign in 2006 under Rene Hidding where they gave votes to Labor by rejecting a minority outcome.

At the most recent state elections around the country most Liberal parties scored in the high thirties on primaries. All states are in roughly the same position: generally poorly performing over the past decade against a dominant ALP. Tasmania is not directly incomparable, of course. The other states don’t have the Greens sucking up 17% of the vote. But providing leader Will Hodgman maintains reasonable levels of popularity, and providing the Libs don’t self-destruct with their campaign again, another 5-6% should be almost a gimme.

Anything more than that … I don’t know. I discuss the general issue of majority/minority government as an issue here: http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/04/how-to-beat-majority-government-scare.html