Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,141 Comments
Help…send err…….. & that toooooo….Mr Bowe fades?!?!? The cheek.
‘I’ll organise some coffeee and dumb nuts’.
Err GG, the latter would appear to be well catered for, don’t you think?
Logistics/Cost not OZ’s best suit. And you confirm it.
The Democrats have to sit the MI and FL delegates at the convention regardless who the nominee is, McCain would have a field day saying the Dems dont care about 2 important States! This is probably the only reason Hillary is still in the race.
Glen,
You are wise beyond tour blogs.
Cheers
Hillary,
You go girl!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cavFoyYJwPQ
Codger, you can talk gibberish all you like later on in the threads, but I at least want them to start well.
Rocky was a fantasy movie which hollywood made to let white people think they were still contenders, right?
I would say Hillary is more like Foreman, she’s been “hope-a-doped” by the greatest.
GG @ 5 – Bit late for training now, Cassius Clay Obama has already stung like a bee. So, Ms Rockyette’s percentage chance of the nom. at present in your honest personal considered estimation GG is …?
Tw & JV
Absolutely no prizes for being second.
3 Glen
The Democrats will seat Michigan and Florida at the convention.
Shortly after Obama wins in June and Hillary withdraws, he will announce that Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated.
Ron – You asked what I felt were Obama’s flaws
My personal gripe is that he is not an agnostic or atheist. As such going to church of any type, especially one with Wright as pastor does not reflect well on his overall judgement.
He also seemed extremely naive in regards to the Rezko transaction.
I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.
I’m also not sure that he will be able to put in action the solutions he so eloquently states.
Despite this, he is still my favoured candidate. Mainly because McCain is too old at 72 and a right wing Iraq supporter. And Hillary appears to be a pathological liar that is obsessed with her own ambition and surrounded by Rove (and I don’t mean McManus
) like supporters.
Mr Bowe @6 what you consider is gibberish is well & good however what I may consider is gibberish is entirely a different matter. If you wish to ban me go ahead it’s your blog but pleaese don’t insult my intelligence & that of your other posters by mesaruring what you call gibberish without following the thread.
In the case of davidoff, it was too liitle too late; with respect you missed the ‘point’ there and you are about to do it again. I do realises that you have a day job but you really ought to pay more attention to the ‘crap’ & ‘mission’ statements passed off here as ‘informed’ opinion. It clearly is not and most have a drum to bang. No problem with that, personally; but I detect a consistent misreading of that by the request for no gibberish by your good self; I don’t think this is deliberate on your part but perhaps a function of your busy lifestyle. At least I hope that is the explanation.
If you follow the thread Mr Bowe, there is no gibberish start or finish. It may not be be your lingo…but…
Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial’. It’s too much for Caddy & Co.!
Cheers.
& Continuity…
Happy to leave William.
Hi codger,
Here’s a somg dedicated to you and davidoff called “Strange Feelings”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5coYTZlUDK4
Dear Horse,(just love how you worked that out, there is hope) thanks for the song; now stalking…fill me in…
codger,
you first, tell us about your obsesseion to call me horse.
GG, too easy…let’s see how clever you really are…
PS got that nose bag worked out?
Hi Codger,
I go to bed now and your stalking crap is there for all to see tomorrow.
Love your work.
Put to bed & tucked in , thanks horse.
Only 217 days to go.
A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.
A PPP>/a> poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..
And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.
Interesting days.
A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.
A PPP poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..
And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.
Interesting days.
Also of note – the RCP Average for Penn is now down to Clinton +6.
Can we please move on. It is now crystal clear that:
1. the fight will go on. nobody is going to quit or being pushed out.
2. the SDs will decide, regardless of who has more PDs or popular votes. so forget about the mathematics.
3. MI and FL delegates will be seated and votes counted.
So can we focus on, to quote my fav lady Nancy with the-egg-on-her-face: “WHO CAN WIN”. Who is more electable vs McCain. That is the only question that matters now for the SDs.
“These superdelegates have the right to vote their conscience and who they think would be the better president, or who can win, but they also then should get involved in the campaigns and make their power known there,” Pelosi said today on ABC News’ Good Morning America.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/pelosi_superdelegates_free_to.html
#22
The Finnigans
Umm, nah …
It looks as though nobody is going to be pushed out (overtly). However – I would not say that a Clinton exit is off the list of real possibilities. The Clinton campaign is in fatigue – funding is a long way behind Obama and money is not coming in at a rate necessary to keep pace, and Obama is forcing the Clinton campaign into a burn-rate they cannot sustain. Creditors are not being paid, even internal campaign staff are waiting for reimbursements on travel expenses (without a clear picture of when accounts will be settled). Bill is getting grumpy, and a nasty result in the Penn contest could do the trick.
I disagree completely with the assertion. More than half of the superdelegates have already delectared intentions. The remaining superdelegates will take into consideration the result of the contest in terms of pledged delegates, number of states, popular vote, loyalties to the electorate that put them where they are, their prospects taking into account trends, their respective political futures, and then – from that platform exercise their judgement. To say that SD decisions will not reflect pledged delegate results is overly simplistic.
Its not a given – but I’m assuming that they will be seated at the end of the day, but not with the same capacity as delegates from non-defaulting states.
G’day Gang, these three stories lunged at me from this morning’s mojo wire.
1/WALLINGFORD, Pa. — Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.(Huffy)
2/ “Now another sign offers possible clues to Senator Clinton’s Murdoch status: Rupert’s daughter Elisabeth is holding a fund-raiser at her London home this month for Barack Obama”…….. AP
3/ The Freakish Pulling Power of the The Kid: noted earlier by js.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf
————-
codger, do you speak Swahili, Caribbean patois, or pig Latin?
It’s been hard learning to live without Eddy and Davidoff, but I’ve soldiered on. Hope you’ve had a good night’s kip, this race is just starting to ramp up.
——————-
E.J. Dionne just told Fran Kelly that he reckons the SDs will move behind The Kid unless Brutusina creams him in PA.
Finn, you’re a big fan of astrologer Nancy I notice. Geez I love it when you talk scientific. Scorpio’s rising, son, have you ever thought of just saying no to Mrs. Clinton because she’ll only sting you badly in the end?
Hillary launches 3.00 AM version 2 – this time its the economy stupid.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/hillary_unveils_another_3_am_a.php
According to Mark Penn …
Or maybe its the campaign credit crunch?
Another superdelegate locks in with Obama.
According the AP, and consistent with Finnigans second rule, Melcher is one of eight Montana superdelegates who can vote for whoever they please at the party’s national convention this summer.
6
William Bowe
We are all trying to learn ‘gibberish’ William, and codger is teaching us. Some already are quite fluent, and do it almost effortlessly, but codger raises bar and embeds little cryptic stuff called ‘meaning’ into it, even if we have to admit it’s a bit tricky to see first off.
Keep trying, you’ll improve, we have! LOL
Speaking of popping in a bit of ‘meaning’, it’s interesting to see that Ben Bernanke dropped the ‘r’ word last night.
For a guy who kept telling us there was only a wee problem in sub-prime mortgages that wouldn’t be leaking into other markets, he really is behind the curve, eh?
So when Helicopter (I’ll drop money from the sky if necessary) Ben, tells us a little ‘recession’ is ‘probably’ happening, I’d suggest it’s time to head into the bunker with the tinned food and the ammo.
This guy has been so wrong so long it’s scary. (Remember, we were talking about a recession in the US late last year! Oh, and there were quite a few ’serious’ people arguing that it was a preposterous idea. Well, beware experts, i say! LOL)
Inside word is da boyz at the Fed are packing sh!t still, and realise they can’t keep pulling Bear stunts, and are very anxious about where the next shoe will drop.
And drop it will.
Anyway, that ‘r’ word was a cold spoon to the screen jocks who’d been covering their short postions like mad and feeling bouyant on a cushion of Fed liquidity. It probably will work for a day or so, and then they’ll get back to it until the next big insto hits the wall.
Maybe that’s why it’s called Wall Street?
This one just made me laugh …
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/obama-on-hardball-hillary_n_94737.html
And with scenes like that the PPP poll makes a lot of sense.
Hi Fellow Poll Bludgers
Latest Hillary Deathwatch is 9.5% and dropping.
http://www.slate.com/id/3944/cp/2162248/
Re-post from the fag end of the previous thread. Who’s up for it?
My own prediction is Hillary bowing out on April 23 at 1000 hrs.
By the way, this RCP graph of the Penn polls is a classic ‘pincer narrowing’:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
jv – In the spirit of the game, my wishful rather than realist scenario at this stage:
After a virtual tie in Pennsylvania really puts the pressure on, Hillary loses in Indiana and gets hammered by 20+ point North Carolina. She then dismounts with a fairly graceful speech on 8 May around midday after staying out of the press’ way on the seventh.
Btw, the wishful part refers to Hillary withdrawing. I’m happy to put those margin predictions on the record as my tips.
Morning Bludgers.
I see Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal has now endorsed Obama. Does anyone come out and endorse Hillary anymore???
And seeing as we’re in an issues – and primary – hiatus let’s talk healthcare. It’s the elephant in the room that Obama supporters don’t want to talk about. I suspect many, like me, who support Obama wish he would pinch Hillary’s healthcare plan. It’s better than his.
Any thoughts?
Pretty optimistic in my view Pancho
I’m hesitant to make any tips this early in the piece.
However, I suspect Hillary will win Pennsylvania easily. The latest Indiana polls are showing Hillary in front, and North Carolina will go to Obama easily but the polls aren’t indicating a 20+ lead.
31
JV, always happy to donate a good bottle of red – or white – to a worthy occasion.
As for Hillary pulling out – NUP! She has already factored in a loss in pledged delegates and popular vote. I think she could lose PA (which she won’t) and every other contest from here on in and STILL stay in the race.
She’s not expecting to win pledged dels. She’s hoping to woo SD’s. They are her one chance and until they pull the rug out she is sticking around regardless of the primaries.
Unfortunately for her, they are pulling the rug out….but very very slooooooooowly.
FG,
Which begs the question of “Why?”
If, as the Obamaphilliacs contend, the party heavyweights are so concerned about settling the nomination, why haven’t they done it?
1. They are not nearly as powerful and influential as they think.
2. They want to influence the platform once they get to Denver.
3. Obama is still a huge risk that none wants to be responsible for foisting on the wider electorate.
Asanque – NC predictions based on registration numbers here:
‘New numbers from the North Carolina Board of Elections show that, since the first of the year, more than 165,000 new voters have registered to participate in advance of the state’s May 6 primary.
…Forty-five percent of the new voters since January are registered as Democrats, with about 30% unaffiliated and 25% Republican. About a third are under 24 years old.’
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/01/848998.aspx
That under 24 years old number is big. Across contests so far this has been about 15%. Where the number has been higher, it has been where his machine has been chugging. So put the obvious organisation together with the about 50% of Dem primary voters are black, and the fact that Obama is already outspending her there, and I think NC will be a blowout.
GG- I believe the “horse” reference is to your initials GG, which is a nickname for the horsies (I’ve never been able to work out why).
Diogenes,
Obvious and probably correct.
Thanks.
GG – you’ve gotta look at the feet of the organisation as well as the head. The endorsements keep trickling. In addition to John Melcher (@26):
“CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a former Clinton administration appointee, announced Wednesday that he will support Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.
…Freudenthal is the second Western governor and former Clinton appointee to endorse Obama in recent weeks. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former energy secretary and UN ambassador under Clinton, announced his support for Obama two weeks ago.
Former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, who was the top Democrat on the Sept. 11 Commission, also endorsed Obama on Wednesday.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080402/obama-endorsement/
I have no problem with how Dean and Pelosi are managing the process, and from the looks of the continual movement to Obama, they are still getting what they want.
36
GG, I don’t think there’s any great mystery about ‘why’. For a start, many SD’s have already hoisted their colours. Of those that are left the trickle is to Obama. As for the rest – well – politicians tend to be timorous souls afraid of making a decision till they are positiviely certain it’s a winner.
Which is why there’s a lot of sweaty palms among the less than timorous souls who backed Hillary early on.
Then came Super Tuesday.
SD score: 246-215. Margin 31 and falling. And each time this score falls, Obama’s absolute lead extends itself, as well as the percentage of what is left that Hillary needs.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project
An interesting article on the future of teh US Economy at The Economist http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10925548
This is looking at the likely extent of flow ons from the credit crisis into the “real” economy. Main point is that the disclosure of losses in the sub-prime crisis may be largely done, but the consequences certainly aren’t.
GG- There is a much better reason why the SDs haven’t decided yet. They are a bunch of gormless halfwits who would prefer to sit on a fence and get sliced in half rather than make a decision. I’m guessing most of them work as public service administrators by day.
And I’ve found out about GG and horses. It’s hypochoristic!
“We hear the term gee used in the city as well as the country today, in the form gee-gee, a hypochoristic (baby talk) term for a horse. Now that we have discussed the word gee, it is probably not difficult to see whence gee-gee came. The word used to direct a horse simply came to apply to the horse. Children in the early 19th century saw horses on a daily basis, in many cases. The youngest children, just learning to speak, would hear men shouting “Gee!” to their horses, and so they, very logically for children, applied that word to the animal. It became gee-gee after the pattern of other children’s words for animals, such as bow-wow for dog and kitty cat for cat, though it was still found as gee alone, as well. The earliest record of the gee-gee usage is 1869, and this one is from 1886: “To carry two heavy boys… on his back, pretending that he was a gee-gee.” It was certainly being used as early as the first part of the 19th century, however; it usually takes some time for slang or children’s words to find their way into written form.
So when a farmer calls haw and gee to his horses, he is etymologically saying hey and go!”
asanque at 10: “I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.”
It will cost him (BHO) only a little and only what was anticipated from the gitgo, asanque, as voters from these demos will support Johnny Bomb-Bomb in about the same proportions that African-Am. voters support Obi south of Mason Dixon. The groups that you mention are what The Imbecile refers to as “his base”, roughly 25 to 30% of the population who will go for the GOPper candidate even if he was Hannibal Lecter, rather than vote for a “jig”.
—————-
Chopper Ben makes drop to Hit-The-Wall Street Cargo Cultists. I like it Kirri Profundo!
Those bunkered buck mercs are likely to be supplied by Kellog Brown Root, the Halliburton subsidiary. As long as “Torture Dick” Cheney is still around, mention ought to be made that these people only do canned food. Talk of tinned food defies their comprehension. “Tinned food” is a “ Hunh?!?” inducer unless augmented with the gesticulate skills of Marcel Marceau. But, by golly, don’t they just lerve to chow down on their Freedom Fries.
Orright jv, since it was silly me who clod-hoppered like Betty Blockbuster all over the gender-bender thing, I’ll play. After a secret ballot my sleeper cell comrades have authorised me to donate a nice bottle of plonk. Winner decides grape variety.
Hillary will have the stones to make the announcement all by herself. After a MOE-tie in PA where she once led The Kid by 29 points and the certainty of a flogging in N.C. and an Indiannan loss, she’ll pull out (campaignus interruptus) at 0900 hours NY time on Anzac day after securing a cush sinecure for herself and Bill following an all night arm-twisting session with SDs and what’s euphemistically known as the Dems’ brains trust.
And where’s that bloody Commie Comitatus when you need him?!
What we have here in PA is a classic “Pincer Narrowing” and no one to talk us through it.
Pseph-Heads and Poll Scholars live for the possibility of a definitive Pincer Narrowing happening at least once in their observational lifetimes. This is the Halley’s Comet that inspires all the fear and all the loathing; the oohs, the aaahs; the popcorn passing and the online sizzle. Some vulgarians have even described it as “Money-Shot Psephology”, but having been raised as a gentleman and not a degenerate, I’m not sure I’m really ready to go there. But the world is changing fast. Bashfulness does not rest well with a tumultuous spirit. And as Uncle Duke said, “the fast lane is littered with some very expensive wrecks”.
What’s life without the possibility of radical change? Certainty is for lawyers and economists, corporate cog-persons, government mules and 9 to 5 rat-race stiffs.
Frorm here to November I’m gonna live like too much information is never enough!
And how wonderful it is to note that a certain Brisbane suburban poster has emerged from his identity crisis unscathed after a decent night’s sleep.
#31
jaundiced view
Here is one scenario:
1. It will matter too much what the results of Pennsylvania will be providing she carries the state. If is by a very small margin she will attribute this to being outspent, effectively casting it as a victory by overcoming an impossible financial advantage held by her opponent – proving her electability in the general.
2. Once Pennsylvania is out of the way, the news cycle will be somewhat easier – two weeks later we have Guam, Indiana and North Carolina (and my impression is the Obama will take all of these states), a week later we have West Virginia and a Clinton win. Hillary is likely to promote this as a comeback kid moment, leading the narrative for the following week which take us into Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton takes Kentucky with a media spin promoting the resurrection while Obama takes Oregon. The last two weeks kick-in and media attention goes ballistic with coverage on every waking moment of every undeclared superdelegate and Puerto Rico gets overrun with campaign personal and the media and Hillary Clinton takes the contest and asserts not only a resurrection but a winning streak.
3. By staying in the race the onus is on the DNC and Obama campaign to provide an exit that Hillary Clinton supporters will feel is fair and just (e.g. a cabinet position, or something like Governor of NY, whatever). Things is that the longer she hangs in the more more collateral she has when negotiating the exit – and negotiations (if she stays in race) could include her actions during the convention (i.e. she gets to put the DNC between and rock and a hard place). If that process start to unwind, she can fall-back to the scenario of just appearing to do the right thing. In addition there is the long short that Obama’s campaign will go into meltdown sometime before the convention and she’ll be there to steps up to save the day.
4. The dust settles in Denver and Obama is nominated. Disney, Viacom, TimeWarner, News Corp, Bertelsmann AG, and General Electric make a series of donations Clinton Library in appreciation for the best news story in modern American history.
But if she looses Pennsylvania – then April 23, 10:00AM sounds about right.
Apologies to the people of Montana and South Dakota – should have mentioned these two states in the above rundown – Montana and South Dakota contest are two weeks after Kentucky and one week before Puerto Rico.
Codger #11
“Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial”
The only two people EVER call Codgers blogs “gibberish” are me and now William.
Using Codger ‘logic’ then either
William & I are the same people , or
William & I think have similar intellect , or
I can not handle ‘barbs’ & would secretly complain and that William would listen.
which was what Codger concluded and said above. This is a direct & unqualified dispicable allegation to William’s integrity.
Whilst bloggers( including I) would not insult William by defending him in detail as he will do that if he wishs , but it is still blogger’s responsibility to at least blog to say such an unqualified smear allegation is unacceptable on this site & should be withdrawn. I do so Codger.
Before I fall off this ‘night in shining armour’ , I would hope Codgers fellow Obama supporters may give some ‘fair go’ and ‘ acceptable standards’ thought & consider at least making a statement of disapproval at the minimum ???
Ferny G – Another bottle donated to the cause – good man, and I say that last thing with authority. But don’t forget your prediction. Date & time
EC – Another bottle donated, and another good man. Your time for HRC to capitulate @ 0900 on 25 April officially noted.
So, that’s 3 bottles of good plonk for the winner so far.
Others?
Junior s @ 46 – You’re not predicting the same time as me though, are you? Or is it the convention?
Date, time and candidate required.
And as to your point 2 junior s – possibly, if Pennsylvania is better for Hillary than 6 or 7 points, because the US MSM is always hungry for another unlikely episode, another phoenix rising from the ashes, another resurrection. But if it is close in Penn then they may prefer other angles that sell papers – the ‘how the mighty are fallen, let’s pick at the carcass’, along with the ‘wow, look at the new kid go’ angles.
Deadline for all entries next Monday night (7th) at 9:00pm?
Ron
Should we get Obama to denounce or reject Codger’s comments?
Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?
Jeezus – sounds like a full time job.
You can be the hall monitor Ron.
And when we spot an evil doer and need the hall monitor we can use the special hall monitor emergency call….
DA DO RON RON RON
DA DO RON RON
45
Yes EC, I’m feeling my old self again
….which is how I verified that I am indeed a male.
49 – jv
Put me down for Hillary to withdraw shortly after Puerto Rico after the remaining superdelegates finally pull the plug.
r/Ron – Your date, time and candidate? Are you a player?
GG?
codger -easy, easy – WB was just having a gentle lend. I personally find your ‘gibberish’ quite edifying compared to some other alleged non-gibberish we read here (self included at times) – yours is more like ‘blogging doggerel’ than gibberish.
See what I mean (From Wiki):
“Some poets, however, make a virtue of writing what appears to be doggerel but is actually clever and entertaining despite its apparent technical faults. Such authors include: Ogden Nash; Pam Ayres”
Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’, please make sure it is also ‘clever and entertaining’ will you?
Asanque @ 54 – will do – do you want to set your date and time now or wait a day or two?
In my reading of Pelosi’s latest comments, she is clearly laying down a challenge to the remaining Supers.In a way, she is calling their bluff.
She says they have a right to vote for whoever they want but they should get out and campaign for who they support.
It would take remarkable courage(not in abundant supply) or political stupidity(not in abundant supply) for any Super to openly support Clinton from here on in.
Pelosi is openly saying, pick a candidate and start working NOW. Don’t just sit on your smug asses and watch our chances diminish.
jv @ 55,
A serious question begs a considered response.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl5rNxOIUbc
GG @ 58 haha. Is that on the 12th of never at 12, Barack to concede?
Not a player then eh? 3 nice bottles could be yours …
Apparantly Bill’s bloodpressure is rising…
“You know when the Clinton Campaign is nearing defeat. It is the beginning of the end when Slick goes into a tirade with Democrat Party delegates no less:
The Bill Clinton who met privately with California’s superdelegates at last weekend’s state convention was a far cry from the congenial former president who afterward publicly urged fellow Democrats to “chill out” over the race between his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Barack Obama.
In fact, before his speech Clinton had one of his famous meltdowns Sunday, blasting away at former presidential contender Bill Richardson for having endorsed Obama, the media and the entire nomination process.
“It was one of the worst political meetings I have ever attended,” one superdelegate said.
According to those at the meeting, Clinton – who flew in from Chicago with bags under his eyes – was classic old Bill at first, charming and making small talk with the 15 or so delegates who gathered in a room behind the convention stage.
But as the group moved together for the perfunctory photo, Rachel Binah, a former Richardson delegate who now supports Hillary Clinton, told Bill how “sorry” she was to have heard former Clinton campaign manager James Carville call Richardson a “Judas” for backing Obama.
It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade.
“Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that,” a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.
The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media’s unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.
“It was very, very intense,” said one attendee. “Not at all like the Bill of earlier campaigns.”
And what did he say to the waiting audience? We need to chill out…..
What a piece of work! ”
http://stuckon-stupid.com/2008/04/02/dear-hillary-bad-news-its-over/
Latest ad on PA telly.
“Hillary For President
“Ringing”
TV :30
Announcer: It’s 3 am, and your children are safe and asleep.
(Oh-oh, here we go again)
But there’s a phone ringing in the White House and this time the crisis is economic.
(probably a good idea to give the Commander-In-Chief thing a rest after the Bosnian beat-up)
Home foreclosures mounting, markets teetering.
(Thank you for holding, we appreciate your call. The Fed are busy bailing out Merrill Lynch but our first available operator will be with you momentarily)
John McCain just said the government shouldn’t take any real action on the housing crisis, he’d let the phone keep ringing.
(What a prick! Actually Johnny takes his hearing aid out before hitting the sack and he’s got a platoon of flacks and hacks to handle incoming)
Hillary Clinton has a plan to protect our homes, create jobs.
(Yeah, right. Genesis Employment.)
It’s 3 am, time for a president who’s ready.
(That’s why by brunch time she looks like a heavy debtor demanding an overdraft extension at The Allergan-Botox Bank).
Hillary Clinton: I’m Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.”
(Meanwhile the SDs just keep falling into The Kid’s camp)
Any discussion about his oiliness.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/129895
The only calls Hillary will be getting about a financial crisis at 3 am are from her campaign’s creditors threatening to send in the debt collectors.
And what is Hillary’s plan. Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.
PS I’ll donate a bottle of Rockford’s Basket Press 1994 to the pool if Billary quits before June 3, the date of the final primary.
Diogenes -[Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.]
Yes, the ad is to try to bolster her non-existent credentials on the economy.
Next, she will recount her ‘memory’ of how she passed Alan Greenspan in a white house corridor in September 1997 and warned him of a market crash that would occur on 21 October due to problems in Asia, and how the impact of the mini-crash on the US economy was much less as a result of her intervention.
Crikey! That’s a top drop Diogenes – right off the top shelf. I’ve tried it once – a more recent vintage – and it was superb. A fine contribution.
Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil didctaor and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC
Wed April 2: How American Democracy drives your buck further.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF
More on the conservative case for Obama:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philip-giraldi/obama-the-conservative-ch_b_94761.html
‘Huffington Post progressives should look to the conversation that is going on among traditional conservatives if they are seriously interested in nominating a candidate who would be both electable and good for the country. As a conservative, it is frankly incomprehensible to me that anyone would want to go back to the sleaze, constant political triangulation, sense of aggrieved entitlement, and low-life characters like Sandy Berger that characterized the Clinton White House.
…Other conservatives have observed that Obama might also seriously address the hemorrhaging of America’s manufacturing base that has taken place under the auspices of President George W. Bush, a trend that would undoubtedly continue under either McCain or Clinton, both of whom are either ambivalent about or committed to globalism and free trade. America must put its own house in order first and it is time to challenge many of the economic and social assumptions that have driven policy over the past 15 years.
In short, Obama for president is beginning to look pretty good to many conservatives and that means that a Barack Obama administration might actually bridge the gap between right and left, finally bringing together American citizens who are intent on righting the foundering ship of state rather than preserving the status quo. Clinton and McCain represent little more than two nightmarish visions of an out-of-touch political reality that has manifestly failed and should be rejected.’
Geez Diog, I bow at your feet. How did you get hold of a Basket Press 94?? And why would you give it away???? Here’s what Halliday has to say:
“Rockford can only be described as an icon, no matter how over-used that word may be. It has a devoted band of customers who buy most of the wine through the cellar door or mail order (Rocky O’Callaghan’s entrancing annual newsletter is like no other.) Some wine is sold through restaurants, and there are two retailers in Sydney, and 1 each in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Whether they will have the Basket Press Shiraz available is another matter; it is as scarce as Henschke Hill of Grace (and less expensive).”
Almost makes me want to take a stab at the date and time the stake will be administered.
Almost
How are Rocky and Bullwinkle today?
Sounds like the Big Bull is getting a bit stressed- maybe he should call Monica for some stress relief. In the meantime I’m going to bet Hillary is declared dead after the Pennsylvania poll within 48 hours. But she won’t go without a fight, so she won’t declare, she’ll be pushed.
If Obama is getting a lead in Penn. this far out it would be far better for her to jump now, but that would take integrity and well, that just ain’t gonna happen.
Apparently Tropical Cyclone Pancho is currently active off the WA Coast – any connection to the HUFFINGton post article at 66?
My lend wasn’t that gentle really, JV. I really don’t think Codger’s brand of “doggerel” (to put the kindest possible spin of it) is appropriate for a site such as this. In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.
67 Ferny
I bought two dozen about ten years ago and I’ve gone off wine since then so I’m happy do donate them to a good cause.
And Big Bill is losing it completely. He repeatedly says Billary is only one per cent behind. It’s 3.0% using RCP.
It’s the Hunting of the Snark again.
” I have said it thrice:
What I tell you three times is true.”
Ferny G @ 67 – It’s a glorious drop to contemplate isn’t it? But, you won’t take a stab on the concession date and time? I hear you’ve got the balls, so – c’mon! Give it a go.
Jen @ 68- Good one Jen – a commitment to after Penn. You must have the balls too! This gender business is confusing.
After Penn is my prediction too – but pick the specific date and time of day so you can win Diog’s basket press gem and two others. Since Diogenes threw that label in I’ve upgraded my bottle so as not to appear as a cardboard handbag wino!
Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil dictator and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC
Wed April 2: How Democracy drives your buck further.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF
Wed. April 2: Kickin’ back in Dogpatch…… At Home with the Arkansas Travellers.
NB pooch on porch, Lil Abner corn pipe, hanging fly paper, wringer washing machine, moonshine in corner and begging note on front door.
.http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AkM.pwMeutmEIFKJpRuQPi1X_b4F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li‘l_Abner
On song like here, Danziger is one of the most vicious of contemporary Sep cartoonists. The voters that Hillary is courting will bust a gut when this cartoon hits the Appalachian grapevine, especially in PA.
——————————–
Rocky and Bullwinkle is good, jen, delightfully squirrilist and moosist. Would you also buy Boris and Natasha?
More or less final results from Zimbabwe House of Assembly election.
MDC Tsvangirai leads with 99 seats; Zanu PF has 97 seats; MDC Mutambara has 10 seats; and Jonathan Moyo (Independent) has his one seat. The split in the MDC cost the opposition about 10 seats given the first past the post voting system. Still a fantastic result given the repression, bribery and no doubt vote fiddling employed by Mugabe’s government.
No official figures for presidential votes yet but clear that Mugabe is well behind the combined opposition vote. Not certain that Tsvangirai will get the 51% needed for first round win but run-off would seem certain to elect him barring even more repression or military intervention.
Also waiting to see Senate (upper house figures). Apparently Sekai Holland has won a Senate seat. Independence ambassador, survivor and hero.
http://www.sokwanele.com is a good source of figures.
Opps, the full stop before the Danziger link rendered it inoperable. Take 2.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AkM.pwMeutmEIFKJpRuQPi1X_b4F
jv – I said within 48 hrs of the Penn election. 10 am EST.
My donation – a bottle of Sorrenberg Sauv Blanc.( If there’s any left with my late night PB sessions , glass in hand.)
BTW what are the logistics of the winner getting the stuff? Do we go via Bilbo?
Or perhaps we could drop all donations off at the PB pool, as we will be having a special practice session for the valedictory performance (special guest appearance by Obama walking on water) whilst the PB Synchronised Swimming Squad perform aquabatics the like that have never been seen.
William @ 70 -[In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.]
Well, I guess Ogden Nash and even Pam Ayres (shudder) would measure up to those standards, so there can’t really be any complaint.
I would hope though that codger can match Ogden’s:
“Just Keep Quiet and Nobody Will Notice”
“…
Because you are very rude if you let them emerge from an argument victorious,
And when they say something of theirs is awful, it is your duty to convince them politely that it is magnificent and glorious,
And what particularly bores me with them,
Is that half the time you have to politely contradict them when you rudely agree with them, …”
wakefield –
Mark Penn is Boris and I’m still not sure about Natasha. Could be Nanacy Pelosi as she seems to have an agenda to get Hillary. Any suggestions welcome. First prize- nothing.
Jen – Got your time then – 24 April @ 1000 hrs. Delivery? We’ll work something out -post it or whatever. I think there’s some mechanism for outside parallel contact via email here for addresses – not sure about that exactly. You can get wine post packs at the PO I think.
Although, Diogenes’ bottle will need to be hand delivered by a wing-ed virgin in a muslin smock.
Otherwse, yeah, a pool party, scuba – drinking wine sitting on the bottom of the pool after synchronicity training.
72
JV, I’m almost forced to offer one of my magnums of Basedow Semillon 99 – one of Australia’s truly great semillons.
As for a date and time: If anyone drops out it will be Hillary, but she won’t go after PA. Dean has said he wants the contest resolved by 1 July, but he doesn’t have the gravitas to force the issue. He will be ignored. Any end to this race will happen for other reasons than Dean’s insipid involvement.
So I don’t think Diog’s fine wine is really on the table because it will NOT be resolved by 3 June. The real question is ‘when will the remaining SD’s make a move?’ My guess is they won’t (other than the current trickle) till after the primaries are over. So, I’m hoping that they will move in the fortnight following June 3 – but that’s just my wishful thinking.
So, for me – it’s Hillary to concede – possibly wearing a Hannibal Lecter-type mask – sometime on or about June 21 at 3pm.
But for the sake of winning Diog’s wonderful wine, I’m tempted to have a stab at Hillary conceding around 9:45pm following the return of the results of the last primaries on 3 June.
Now Diog….about those remaining Basket Press bottles that are simply gathering dust at your place……care to sell them to a serious appreciator of great Aussie reds?
For archivists, the Danziger cartoon at 75 date was April 2.
Wed April 2: Dropoffolics Anonymous.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AordIep70GBpjaMbxrKav.jV.i8C
Wed April 2: Growler at 62, you wanted to talk oil. Check out the grunter.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ApX8diuqfelQrH9CXwo.PQZN_b4F
Wed April 2: Tommy gets a guernsey today on the strength of Condi’s 3 dial shots.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AuyL1S814g6H6LtlKowKcV9T_b4F
56 – jv
Hillary to step down 10 June 2008 at 2:00 p.m.
(not voluntarily – although her speech willl highlight all her achievements)
asanque -
it will be a long one then what with her bringing peace to Ireland, and stopping the war in the Balkans, and single handedly catching a nuclear missile from the top of the Empire State Building (or was that King Kong?), inventing penicillin and all… how will we get by without her???
No doubt about it- PBers are having an :
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pancho-packed-powerful-punch/2008/04/02/1206851013777.html
impact.
Are there no beer drinkers on PB?
Hillary to concede 7th May Midday….after PA,IN and NC and it is clear(even to her) she can’t win the popular vote.
Shortly after MI and FL told delegates will be seated at convention.
Dems unite and beat George Bush’s and Bomb-Bomb’s Party quite easily at the election.
It is impossible to manufacture spontaneous cool and quick wittedness. You either got it or you ain’t. Obi has it in oodles. Tweety’s response demonstrates how good The Kid is at this game.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/obama-jokes-about-the-com_n_94755.html
REPLY TO #48 Ron :
#51 Ferny Grover
“Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?
Jeezus – sounds like a full time job. You can be the hall monitor Ron.”
# 50 Yo ho ho April
Ron “Should we get Obama to denounce or reject Codger’s comments?”
#55 J/V
“Codger…WB was just having a gentle lend.”..
“Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’,…”
Ron says:
My simple equest to bloggers unambiguously referred to the Moderator only & to respect the Institution, the Moderator’s integrity. I gave a reminder of it , but
if one doesn’t then understand this ’standard’ it sure cann’t be taught.
Yet the word ‘Omamabot’ was offensive. Perhaps bloggers may have a further
2nd thought & on not worry about breaking ranks , and if not I will NOT reblog and will move on.
will not re blog the subject and move on
I know Harry – a bloody lot of chardonnay sipping, latte drinking…
Refocussing.
More Clinton lies:
“New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on Wednesday sharply disputed Bill Clinton’s reported claim that Richardson promised to endorse Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House.
“I never did,” Richardson said. “I never saw [President Clinton] five times. I saw him when he watched the Super Bowl with me. We made it very clear to him that he shouldn’t expect an endorsement after that meeting.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/02/richardson-i-never-promised-clintons/
They say it takes one to know one, so maybe once Miranda Devine in today’s SMH is spot on; Hillary is losing because she’s a lying b!tch who’ll do anything and say anything to aggrandise herself.
Wow, this is almost a first, I totally agree with Miranda Devine! Should I buy a lottery ticket or something?
91
Pancho
It’s hard not to get the feeling that Hillary is turning into the Imelda of US politics, but instead of a collection of shoes, it’s a collection of mistruths, and misspokes and lots of unsavoury things tucked away.
Sad.
87
Beer, Harry?? Beer???? When there’s an abundance of good Aussie wine about?? I mean, would you grab a burger when the food of the gods (well, Bacchus is a god) is laid out before you???
We are a discerning lot here on PB after all.
Has everyone seen this?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chip-collis/top-10-myths-keeping-hill_b_94207.html
Can i get a review from a Clinton person? I mean, i agree with him. I want someone who doesn’t to tell me why he’s wrong. Perspective and all that.
Yo ho ho – good article. Mean challenge to throw out though. In the interests of balance and devils advocacy, can I offer, in no particular order, a response to all ten debunked myths? Ahem…JEREMIAH WRIGHT! Oh, and of course ‘yeah, well it doesn’t matter that she can’t win when it counts, because don’t you see she is the ONLY ONE WHO CAN WIN WHEN IT COUNTS!’
Yo Ho Ho-
do you think the Clinton people may have been abducted by aliens? There’s been a lot of it aound here lately.
To be honest Jen, I am slightly concerned.
There’s a few of us that have raised the problem – I know Jaundiced vVew is another worried PB.
Can’t think of any other reason why the Hillary supporters would go quiet in the face of so much evidence that she should stand down and let Obama get on with beating McCain.
Wouldn’t be sour-grapes sulking now, would it.
There is another explanation Jen. Hillary has not been abducted by aliens – she IS an alien! You will recall that KR was discerning enough to pick this up some weeks ago.
And in her own small alien world, Hillary can still win this – and in fact is the ONLY one who can win this.
Good point Ferny. Although another explanation for her unshakeable belief that she can win despite the inceasingly obvious undeniable fact that she can’t, could also be that she is psychotic. Or she smokes too much pot.
Jen – Neverunderestimate the power of denial.
Well Jen it’s getting to the point where everyone except the Clintons can see the writing on the wall. It seems like she just wont give up because she thinks it should be hers (and thought until this year that it would be hers).
101
Jen, I’m told Bill likes her to smoke cigars, but that’s a story for the deviancy blog.
To be serious, Hillary still thinks the SD’s will save her. She has already factored in losses in the PD count and the popular vote. So individual primary losses won’t stop her. She is calulating on the fact that neither can win without the SD’s and she still believes the Party faithful will carry her upon their shoulders to the nomination.
Which is why Bill’s tantrum in front of a bunch of SD’s yesterday was so monumentally mental. He lost her a few more SD endorsements guaranteed.
Someone pass him a cigar to play with.
Ferny
i actually think it’s all about the popular vote. Even the Clintons know that her only chance of getting those necessary SD’s is by winning the popular vote.
if she wins Penn by 12-15, Indiana by 10 and NCar by 5-10 then she can still make the pop vote argument to the Supers.
if one of those 3 things doesn’t happen(which is obvious to all but the Clintons) then she is toast…officially.
who knows….even then she may go a nuclear option on Obama with who knows what. They really are a low pair.
105
Harry, you may be right but it’s hard to believe that even Bill and Hill can’t see that the popular vote is realistically out of reach. They may think it’s still close enough to mount an argument re capacity to win big states, etc.
But in the end all her cards really are in the SD basket….and they are slipping away…..one by one. It’s up to them to end the agony.
Another echo of Australia – McCain has shot Clinton’s ad right back at her with changes: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/hillary-clintons-new-3am_n_94709.html
To successfully manufacture the consent of the elctorate, it is necessary for a presidential candidate to be able to read an “idiot board” and speak coherently. McCain can do neither convincingly; under pressure he’s worse. Joey “The Rat” lieberman can’t be permanently on stand-behind ever ready to whisper into McAngry’s hearing-aid each time the bellicose old bastard screws up.
No matter what damage is done to the Dems in their current internicene battles, when Obi gets the official nod he will make mince-meat of the decrepid warmonger, Angry McCuefluff.
I do believe the Seps use the expression: “whup his butt”.
One of Obi’s tasks from May to November will be to serially fillet The Imbecile Mk.2 in a manner that doesn’t arouse sympathy.
In one-on-one live debate, Illinois Obi v Beltway Johnny Bomb-Bomb is a serious mis-match. This is one of the reasons that Obi has been a short priced favourite with the bookies since the field has narrowed from last year’s field.
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/20080401_mccains_prompter_problem/
Alan Kohler today:
One big question remaining is whether the mortgage backed securities (MBSs) that were acquired at inflated prices by financiers during the US credit bubble of 2002-2007 can been be held and recapitalised or sold without a collapse of the financial system, or whether the US and European taxpayers will have to buy them.
The Bear Stearns bail out was a “toe in the water” of the latter: the Fed bought $29 billion worth of that firm’s worst MBS assets, which allowed the successors of Mr Morgan to feel comfortable about buying the equity of the business.
But the risks, as Mr Bernanke says, are to the downside, and might have more to do with other acronyms than MBSs: specifically CDSs – that is, the betting tickets called credit default swaps – of which there are about US$45 trillion in the system, six times the size of the mortgage market and more than twice the size of the New York Stock Exchange.
There might be an appetite and capacity for more Government purchases of MBSs, but CDSs? Those babies are on their own.
…so Chopper Ben’s got some nervous times ahead with his toe in the water, hoping there aren’t any crocodiles looming close by.
Enemy Combatant
Hillary conceded moments before the Michigan and Florida superdelegates are seated (i.e. somewhere between August 25 and August 28).
Hitchens goes the kitchen sink on Bill to Billary’s propaganda network. He’s only been impeached once for perjury and barred from practicing law in one state. He seems to be bearing a grudge.
Hitchens Goes Off On Clintons, Calls Bill Hill’s “Moral Tutor, The Man Who Taught Her How To Lie”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/hitchens-goes-off-on-clin_n_94655.html
Fair enough, js. Put an exact date and time on it, pledge your bottle of quality plonk, get acknowledgement fom co-ordinator, jv, and you’re in like Flynn.
Bludgers, if Obi doesn’t get whacked before E-day, is anybody in S.E. Qld ( or anywhere really) interested in a get-together and some “live-blogging” in a Bris-Vegas pub or suchlike to view the results on the first Sep Tuesday of November, which will be Wednesday A.M. Oz time? Expressions of interest only at this stage to see if we’ve got critical mass. Went to something similar with some of the LP folk (not election related) about a year ago in The Valley and it was a lot of fun. William is in Perth which is tyrannically distant (maybe he could deduct his expenses by attending a “Psephology Conference” [nudge, wink], but who knows maybe we can lure that cheeky furry critter away from his Brissy abode in the daylight hours.
Please note, this would be a social occasion, network marketers will be executed on the spot.
We’re a weird mob but we Bludgers have definitely got something going on here, so fwiw, any possibles at this juncture?
111
Diogenes
Gotta say it Dio, I love Hitch’s moral indignation when it’s in full voice, and the way he punctures the mock respect and decorum that accrues to these old players. (He fully loathes Kissinger, and would loudly say so on any TV show that would let him).
It’s one side of him I find immensely appealing: Take physic pomp…
Count this marsupial in EC!
What a crack up:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
..the first clip, Monsters of Nostalgia.
Brilliant, McCain is walking backwards to history, on his bus.
jv,
Put me down for Hillary to concede on 24 April, 1400 hours (New York time which I assume is what we all mean by “US time”).
Haven’t yet got around to perusing the Dyno “cellar” but there’ll be a half-decent red heading for the PB Wine Club (and thence to the winner) from me.
24 April Dyno??? That’s awfully soon. Why do you think PA will finish her?
I’m sticking my neck and predicting she’ll lose PA. And that will finish her.
It’s a gamble, I admit.
There’s just something about her campaign now, the smell of death if you want to put it that way. Even the NYT is (intermittently) showing signs of ambivalence about her.
Well Dyno…any win by less than double digits will be interpreted by many as a loss for Hillary.
But I think she’ll keep going….and going….till the SDs kill her.
Then they’ll make a movie about it – “Kill Hill”
FG,
I thought the same till Richardson. But not now – the SDs are not going to save her.
I reckon there’ll be a good offer awaiting her (NY Governor, Ambassador to London, Head of World Bank, whatever) and that will be enough to get her out of the race.
But if I’m wrong, it would hardly be the first time …
Dyno, I agree that the SDs won’t save her. It’s just that Hillary hasn’t realised it yet.
Well, whatever happens, it’s going to be fun to watch!
I wonder if the party organisations will be able to overcome the usual American inertia about anything to do with the States and actually come up with a half-decent primary system by 2012?
Dyno, as GeeGee said last night, no second place. Even the shamrock sista is trying to contextualise her support for Clinton into an Obama Boot Camp.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/opinion/02dowd.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
A very funny piece from Maureen Dowd where she reckons that Hill is popping Barack’s cherry. Not sure how that fits with the other Clinton meme about Obama being an old-fashioned bare knuckle pollie from Chicago but there you go, Clintonaut logic has always puzzled me.
Dowd is pretty cynical about everything. And always funny.
The 2-3 minutes it takes to read her column is always time well spent.
Another freaking lie or fantasy!! You decide.
I’ve said it before “This woman is a dangerous fantasist who cannot distinguish reality from fantasy in her sick twisted mind!”
“During a junior high school soccer game” on a cold day, Hillary claimed “a goalee told her ‘I wish people like you would freeze.’” Stunned, the future first lady asked how she could feel that way when she did not even know her. “I don’t have to know you,” the goalee shot back, “to know I hate you.”
Hillary’s high school didn’t even have a girl’s soccer team!!
Hillary’s Soccer Fantasy
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,342889,00.html
Deal…but I think we should use a boat
btw… I have a boat
Dio @ 127,
Ouch.
A little light reading, anyone?
http://www.crisispapers.org/features/articles.htm
Actually, I think the imaginary goalee (!) was right on the money.
“I don’t have to know you,” the goalee shot back, “to know I hate you.”
Diogenes @ 127 – Hillary seems to have lived someone else’s life until very recently.
I’ve come to the view that most American politicians are certifiably insane. But then so are a majority of those that vote for them. How else could Bush have been reelected!
ooops, he miss-spoke:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/01/cnn-catches-mccain-making-contradictory-statements-about-sadr/
We’ll see about the boat, Classified. Possum’s in. So far we have 3 possibles for E-day in Brissy. What about ye Ferny G?
IS John McCain really the best candidate the Republicans can come up with?
#119, Dyno said:
A measurable sign of this is the blog topic frequency and comment count of the respective candidates. Here is a quick comparison between midnight last night (East Coast) and now.
Clinton: 7 topics 590 comments.
Obama: 14 topics 6,678 comments.
In terms of demonstrated enthusiasm, the Obama Campaign seems to be running ahead of the Clinton Campaign by more than an order of magnitude.
“IS John McCain really the best candidate the Republicans can come up with?”
Kina, ‘fraid so. The cupboard is bare. And Johnny Bomb-Bomb is a Beltway Boy to his jack-boot straps. One on one Obi will have him for breakfast.
Dio, pretty soon she’ll be campaigning with her new bestest special friend. A sock-puppet she’s named Mr. 3 A.M. who’s going to handle all her late night calls.
js at 136: That’s sigificant when you’re flogging a product, sorry, candidate. Is the NYT your source?
Jimmy Carter goes to Nigeria. Releases big cat from bag.
http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=107611&printer_friendly=1
#137
Enemy Combatant
Nope – davidoff is the source.
This will play well in Pennsylvania:
“The campaign says they will release the documents sometime before April 15. Without them, many questions remain about how the Clintons made tens of millions of dollars — and whether they used arcane tax loopholes available to the super-rich, an expert says. A Clinton campaign spokesman says the couple has paid all U.S. taxes at ordinary income tax rates.
An independent review by ABC News has found that since leaving the White House seven years ago, the senator and her former president husband have made well over $50 million, much of it from paid speeches made by Bill Clinton.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4581608&page=1
Pelosi’s clarification:
‘Speaking at a press conference Thursday morning to preview the Democratic message ahead of the visit from Gen. David Petraeus, the House Speaker reiterated her belief that “it would do great harm to the Democratic Party if it was perceived that the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.”
“That is consistent with a delegate voting his or her conscience,” Pelosi added.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/pelosi-sticks-to-her-guns_n_94902.html
138 – js
Whilst I don’t in any way miss ESJ. Davidoff’s contributions and analysis to this blog are sorely missed.
Since Hillary’s last hope is superdelegates. Here is some superdelegate maths:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html
And on the Deathwatch Hillary’s chances have plummetted to 9%
http://www.slate.com/id/2188151/
I found this article interesting.
Its pro-Hillary maths on the popular vote and I find it more credible then Barone.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html
Of course his analysis relies on a massive number of Puerto Ricans voting for Hillary, but then again, its practically impossible for Clinton otherwise.
It’s well argued asanque but is based on an optimistic set of outcomes that would require a reversal of recent trends.
I think your earlier ’superdelgate maths’ article is more compelling.
Latest electoral-vote has Obama making some inroads, even though he is so much less electable than Hillary.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr03.html
asanque – those county maps are great, and his appalacian map really interesting. How people make those sort of connections I’ll never know, but it seems to work.
Where this scenario runs into problems in my mind is with its assumption of a big Pennsylvania win to basically carry the popular vote argument being made. The says:
‘As for the predicted results, I will go ahead and use the estimate from this excellent blog at MyDD. I think it is an excellent analysis. I happen to think that it is a little bit generous to Obama in its classifications. Consider that in the RCP average, he has been flatlined at around 36% for almost a month now. Indeed, he has never been above 43% of the vote here in any poll. Hillary’s numbers have bounced around significantly.’
The assumption made is that Obama is not, or will not be campaigning here. As we have seen in the past few days, his aggressive campaigning, both in a retail sense and through a flooding of the ad market, has closed the polling gaps to under 5 points on average. The writer’s conclusion, that ‘Regardless, let’s assume 80% turnout, with a 16-point Hillary win, and let’s move on’ is far too optimistic, given that today Hillary’s people have begun killing expectations of a sizable win, putting out press basically claiming that a win’s a a win. Without a huge win here it’s all over (assuming that it isn’t already).
Since Richardson, the SD count to Obama has been 8 to 0. What SD in their right mind would come out and endorse Billary before PA? None. Its only going to get worse for her over the next 3 weeks.
Looks like Jimmy Carter is going to back Obama – so notch up another SD:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/carter-supports-obama-or-so-it-seems/
But wait there’s more….
“On the face of it, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s statement this morning on CNBC that he reserves the right to defect if Clinton loses the popular vote sounds more inside baseball than headline news. But consider these factors: Corzine endorsed Clinton more than a year ago as part of Clinton’s initial sweep of superdelegates. (Yesterday was the anniversary of that announcement.) A defection by Corzine would mean the foundation is crumbling. Also, Clinton won the New Jersey primary by 11 points on Feb. 5. Jersey is in her backyard, and the fact that the governor would consider siding with the popular vote over the overwhelming opinion of his constituents won’t go overlooked by other superdelegates from states she won.” (from today’s Hillary Deathwatch)
145
“Latest electoral-vote has Obama making some inroads, even though he is so much less electable than Hillary.”
So much less electable – that would explain why he’s thumping her.
It just wasn’t in the script was it.
Ah Kevin, you’ve shown the hand! I was saving it to whump Finns with when he showed up. It would seem the last straw has slipped through the Clintonite grasp…
“There’s a new CBS/NYT poll out; but I haven’t yet seen a write-up of the campaign details. So a few nuggets, which will be followed later with a write-up at TPM Election Central.
The internals look significantly better for Obama than Clinton. For instance, Democrats overwhelmingly think Obama’s the stronger general election candidate — 56% to 32%. On favorable vs. unfavorable ratings, Obama has the biggest net positive of all three candidates — 19%. Clinton has a net negative 1%.’
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/187250.php
‘The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,196 registered voters, including 510 Democratic primary voters and 323 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters, four percentage points for Democratic primary voters and five percentage points for Republican primary voters. The margin is slightly higher for subsets within the sample, like white men.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/us/politics/03cnd-campaign.html?hp
150 – Pancho
Whilst early days, it is still concerning that neither Democrat is ahead of McCain on that site. Also the recent national polls have McCain ahead of Obama. One can only wonder how much damage Clinton continues to do by refusing to drop out and preventing Obama from unifying the party and running a strong case against McCain as soon as possible.
Afternoon Blugders all -
I’m off for a couple of days so I’ll be relying on MSM- so much less interesting than you lot.
I’m expecting that Hillary’s decline will pick up in speed, especially now Bullwinkle is pissing off the SD’s.
Sorry to not be able to attend the inaugural PB’s pub crawl but Victoria is just way too far. Maybe we should hold an annual state by state conference. In a bar of course. And near a pool for acquabatic demos for GG.
Have fun and will check in in the next couple of days.
btw – my official diagnosis on Hillary’s capacity for delusional thinking and denial is that she is, in fact, officially f*cking nuts and needs serious psychiatric support as she will not cope when the time comes to defer to Obama. Which is approaching rapidly.
asanque – There is simply no way that either Dem would be beaten by 100 electoral votes against McCain. I think that these three way polls are distorting the results offered, particularly in state by state contests, where Democratic people are closer to the ground and focussed on their Democratic preference. So I wouldn’t pay too much attention to what these electoral maps are showing in either instance until there is a nominee (except for the purposes of having a snipe a Finns). I think what Obama needs to do is just focus on the next three races, perform well, and give Hillary a pathway out that doesn’t humiliate her, or at least start reinforcing the narrative that he is looking beyond this contest and towards McCain.
If you accept that the figures being shown on this electoral vote map give inflated victories to McCain, then this is probably because Democratic voters have not closed around their candidate, so Obama needs to win over those Clintonites who are still bitterly fighting at the moment. History again would indicate that they will come back when this nomination contest is over, but I think at this stage that a better scenario has Hillary forced out by logic and numbers rather than calls from Obama and his supporters. If it hasn’t cleared up and things take a turn for the nasty after NC, then it might be time to worry. For the moment though, I don’t think that Hillary’s presence, or the numbers shown on those electoral maps are a huge concern for November.
A guide to how the general election will go is to look at the state of the nation polls.
Not to put too fine a point on it, the majority thinks they’re cactus and that they’ve got serious problems.
You can read about it here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/us/03cnd-poll.html?hp
…and of course, the vast majority who aren’t bolted on Republican voters, will think long and hard about electing them to misgovern their country.
As the article points out, the numbers are very bad, especially at the beginning of an economic turndown. Imagine where they’ll go when the official reading is negative GDP!
McCain, meanwhile, is cranking up the time machine and taking little tours to another era, and really pressing the point that he’s from another age, is way out of touch with this one, but has had a large hand in landing them where they currently are.
Come November, McCain will want to set the dials on his time machine to the 1960’s, and leave himself there…permanently.
One more variable we can take out of the equation.
After his keynote speech at CTIA, the annual U.S. wireless industry showcase, Edwards was asked in a question-and-answer session if he would accept the nomination for vice president.
I am not sure which polls rate for inclusion in electoral-vote.com , but I notice that NJ, shown as narrowly Republican , has had a recent poll with Obama up by 5 vs McCain. Ohio, show as weak Republican, has had a recent poll with Obama up by 1.
Flip those 15+20 electoral votes and Obama vs McCain looks interesting (261 vs 268).
In fairness, those latest polls also have Hillary in front of McCain in those states, which would give 248 vs 289 electoral votes. Give Hillary Florida as well, and it becomes 265 vs 262.
I think people predicting a huge Republican win based on the last week of electoral-vote.com maps might be in for a big surprise in November.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Quote du jour:
“Again, we see the sad evolution of the U.S. of A. since the end of the ’60s. Then, fewer than five million people received food stamps. Now, nearly six times that number are living on them…after, what was supposed to be the biggest boom the world has ever seen.”
The Daily Reckoning
Afternoon all. I see Hillary is still billion year old carbon, and I don’t mean a diamond.
Quick update from Byron Bay internet cafe on the “Great Southern Concession Date Challenge” – will post a list of entries on Monday when back home. Looks like 6 bottles of fine fermented grape juice so far for the winner. (Harry H, if you win I will substitute a case of the world’s best beer, Coopers Sparkling Ale.)
Junior senator – greater time specificity needed.
Election day in SE Qld? Sounds good, as long as that boat is not a 12′ tinnie.
Jen – come on – it’s only $79 by air to the G Coast.
Ferny G – Have you secured those 11 orphans from Diogenes yet?
Sadly no JV. Diog ignored my plea.
Kevin, I wouldn’t give polling figures for one nominee against McCain the time of day until the nomination is settled. The Democratic Party is too polarised at the moment for those sorts of comparisons to be made and conclusions to be drawn on what will happen in November.
The polls I would prefer to see is Democrat v Republican (regardless of the nominee), although I know this is distorted, I think it would give a better indication of how the ongoing nomination battle is affecting their chances come November.
I also noticed that Obama was only 1% behind McCain in Texas polling according to Electoral-Vote, and that doesn’t really seem at all likely. Kinda like polls showing Turnbull only 1% up in Wentworth I guess.
Meanwhile, on McCain’s supposed great strength, whipping foreignb devils, especially Iraqis, things are going slightly less than swimmingly. Not only did the Iraqi Army fail in Basra, even with American support, but an Iranian general negotiated (ordered?) the cease-fire:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com:80/staff/warren_strobel/story/32337.html
Even worse, the Iranian chappy is on the U.S. terrorist list:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com:80/staff/warren_strobel/story/32141.html
And a telling insight into where the real power resides in Iraq:
Ayatollah Khomeini’s ghost must be peeing itself with delight!
McCain’s 100 years of occupation is beginning to appear wildly optimistic. He’d better start thinking in terms of millennia.
162
MayoFeral
To put it bluntly Mayo, the Iranians saved Uncle Sam’s butt by quenching the fire before it really took off.
But did the US press pay it any notice?
Nup. In fact McCain was still doddering around the country telling all and sundry that Iran was the problem in Iraq!
How did the ’superpower’ implode so quickly? Breathtaking arrogance and stupidity is a powerful force, eh what?
Selamat Bludgers,
Fri April 4: Thought yesterday’s Lil Abner HillBilly one from Danziger was better.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=Aja4COP602y7w8x.kNj4w6Pb.sgF
Thurs April 3: Imbecile Training. Check out Barney’s eyes.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=ApqW04cC57rasvE2Q5PVN5JR_b4F
Little Danae has presidential material written all over her.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Aov9cd2HHPN5A8uf1TbmsTvd.sgF
164
Enemy Combatant
Hey Ecky, that last one is closer to the truth than you’d like to imagine. There was an article, in the NYTimes I think, about people walking out of their homes, and get this, leaving their pets!
Maybe the foodstamps don’t cover tins of Pal?
Ecky, I think you need a dose of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kung_Fu_Kapers
…especially the “Fatal Effect” section! LOL
Quote of the week:
“There is no such thing as a pledged delegate”
…guess who said that, and no, there are no prizes, it’s too bleeding obvious!
KR – if/when the brown stuff really starts hitting the U.S. economic fan dog food might be about the only thing they’ll be able to get with foodstamps.
Especially, if The Village Idiot ™ is still in ‘charge’
Seems the massive grassroots support for Obama is being reflected in the enormous amounts of donations flowing his way:
“Obama’s new total campaign financing breaks Democratic records, with his bid now collecting in excess of $234 Million.”
http://www.scopical.com.au/articles/News/World/4121/Clinton_running_far_behind_Obama_on_fundraising
With the average donation at $90, Obama is clearly drawing wide support.
Hillary is having trouble keeping up. Her donations fell by 50% in March compared to February.
162
MayoFeral
To make matters worse:
The New York Times confirms that “over a thousand” officers and troops of the Iraqi army declined to fight the Mahdi Army in Basra or deserted their posts. It also reports that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki replaced them by inducting 10,000 Shiite “tribal” fighters into the Iraqi army. But the Iraqi press didn’t call them “tribal,” it called them Badr Corps, the paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and now al-Maliki’s main political ally. I’m not sure about the source of the discrepancy, but the NYT piece seems to be based on interviews with Iraqi and American government officials. It is possible that the need to strengthen the Iraqi army by turning to a Shiite militia trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (terrorists!) was just too embarrassing to admit. So the officials used the euphemism “tribal forces” with the foreign press.
(Juan Cole)
…oops, couldn’t report that in the middle of McCain’s spin about the “Iraqi government standing on its own two feet” could we? LOL
I read an interesting article about ex Republican, now Libertarian Party leader Bob Barr running as a candidate.
He is an old time Republican/Libertarian apparantly who should appeal to a section of the Repub base who can’t swallow McCain.
I actually think the Dems will win the election comfortably but if for some reason it is close,Me thinks there could be more of a Barr Effect than a Nader Effect.
KR – now the Iranians have shown they can play Iraq like a Stradivarius what’s the betting they try orchestrating events in the lead up to Nov to boost the chances of the candidate they believe they can best work with?
While you’d think that would have to be the Dem nominee, they may decide on McCain given that the last time they were players in American politics it was another old Republican that they made a deal with.
172
MayoFeral
It’s too scary to contemplate, eh? Although somewhere there’s a story about one of the high Iranian officials being told of Barack’s middle name, and after he overcame his surprise, asked if he had ant chance of winning the presidency! LOL
But more seriously, I’d suspect they’d prefer someone who wants to talk to them over someone who thinks it good idea if Israel bombed them.
(One of the most annoying things is the line about Ahmadinejad supposedly saying he wanted to wipe Isreal ‘off the map’. He in fact said no such thing, but the western MSM went mental with a sloppy translation and infered a statement that does not have any currency in Farsi.)
Ferny
I ventured down into the cellar. I’ve only got 4 Rockfords Basket Press 94 left. The wife must have been drinking them to anaesthetise herself against the horror of living with me. There are 8 Henscke Mt Edelstone 94 as well (which is actually a better wine than the Basket Press). You are welcome to them. You could make a donation to William and I’ll send you them.
GG @ 173; Nice.
seems like McCain’s lead has evaporated over at http://www.electoral-vote.com.
scary for the Repugs.
Diogenes,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
GG
What a great movie! I watched it a couple of weeks ago for the third time. Did you know that Jack T Ripper was based on real people. There was a strong anti-fluoride movement in the US who thought it was a Commie plot. They even have their own website…still!
http://www.fluoridealert.org/
A new slant on things.
“A historically minded reader has suggested that the Democrats end their fratricidal battle by taking a cue from what the Whigs did in the 1836 election when they couldn’t decide between the Northern candidate and the Southern candidate: they ran both. The Democrats could do this, too: put Obama on the ballot in the Western states in which he did well and put Clinton on the ballot in the big Democratic states like Ohio where she won solid victories. Of course, if successful, this strategy would split the electoral votes three ways and nobody would get a majority. Then the newly elected House would choose the President, with each state getting one vote. The Democrats will almost assuredly control the new House. Of course, the battle between Obama and Clinton would then be reignited in the House Democratic caucus so the Democratic members of the House would end up choosing the nominee. But that is going to happen now anyway. However, by doing it that way, the House Democrats would be sure their choice would become President, without having to bother beating a pesky and popular Republican. Of course, the party would need enough discipline to make sure every member of the House voted for the winner of the House caucus vote and normally herding Democrats is like herding cats. The one downside to this strategy is that it didn’t work for the Whigs in 1836; Martin van Buren, Andrew Jackson’s Vice President, won a majority of the electoral vote outright.”
Kirribilli, the “fatal effect” would be as good a way to go as any. Very funny lads those Goodies. Looked on you-tube for John Belushi doing the samuri sausage chops, ie something martial arty and to do with food to reply to black pudding and kung fu as per your link, but couldn’t locate it. Classic comedy.
However you did mention food stamps, pal.
Fri Apr 4: You Can Eat Food Stamps?
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE7D81E31F932A05753C1A967958260
40 Years of American Economic Progress. The Imbecile assures US that with his hand firmly on the tiller, President Reagan’s Trickle-Down is a monumental success.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AiIGH_3tWShrzvLuzVhKS2oV2r8F
Thurs April 3: Johnny Bomb-Bomb gets smart after too many auto-cue malfunctions
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=Ag.ucOLIvypgSH0EpzYKCMVW_b4F
Below, Aussie Mike socks it to mendacious war-mongers. Ware reminds me of Sean Flynn, a reporter who covered the Nam war, was big on derring-do and got an honourable mention in the masterful “Dispatches” by Michael Herr. Herr had considerable input on Coppola’s Apocalypse Now.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/03/michael-ware-interview/
More bad news for the Clinton Campaign.
InsiderAdvantage Pennsylvania poll just out shows Clinton just 2% ahead of Obama.
April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%.
The results are:
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 42%
Undecided: 12%*
InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_43_318.aspx
#159
jaundiced view
No time to firm up my numbers right now (life is getting in the way).
I’ll watch this race from the sideline.
Fri April 4: Of houses built, candlesticks vaulted but not bean-stalks scaled.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AijqoQN1zQr1xdPnqFCH6TBT_b4F
Thurs April 3: Moral Unequivalence
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=Ah3_KvTZXY.A0CkpiDpMIVMxvTYC
Fri April 4: Staying Focussed
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Athu3GwELCEK2Ib5dz1vBCEDwLAF
The Obama campaign seems to have mastered the art of how to kill the spread. They were nailed in some states earlier on, but as the camapign has progressed, they’ve deployed increasingly high quality and sophisticated campaigning assets into ordinarily pro-Clinton states (Texas being a good example, Penn looking the same). For the last 2 months I’ve been watching the Obama campaign unfold in… well, in awe. I dont know who the real campaign strategy team is behind Obama, but they seriously have their shit together.
I just ran a quick look at the spread between Clinton and Obama in Penn, and adjusted it for MoE (US polls have so much more information available about them that it makes them almost a pleasure to work with – looking forward to the real contest!). Over the last 6 weeks, the spread has reduced from between about 14-24 favouring Clinton down to +4 to Obama to +5 to Clinton.
The polls look tight. If the late deciders continue to run to Clinton as they’ve been doing, she’ll win – but if the spread crunch continues, it will only be by about 5-7 points max… but most likely less.
If the late deciders run to Obama giving him victory – then surely Clinton would have to concede?
Oh look its the Green Grinch and more of his senile insane ravings. Must have escaped from the sanitorium again where obviously he was restrained due to his homoerotic fantasies.
William: could you do us all a favour and ban GG. Surely he has had more then enough chances and contributes nothing by his inane harassment of posters.
GG should indeed not leave comments like 173, which I would have deleted if I’d been on the ball, but I wouldn’t put it any higher than that.
#186
William Bowe
Nothings is stopping you from deleting the post. Just login, select the post, scroll to the bottom of the page, and hit the delete button.
#173 – GG – why spoil the fun of the Obamaphiles’ mutual admiration and ego boasting party. just beginning to enjoy the [swallowing each others.............. #173] bit. have a nice weekend to all.
The grim reaper of recession is scything away in the US, lopping the ranks of the employed. Another 80,000 jobs lost in March, to make three straight months of losses.
That ‘r’ word that everyone from the Grinning Chimp to Helicopter Ben has been avoiding like the plague is in full swing. And it’s not pretty.
Forget Iraq, ‘experience’, or the old scare tactic ‘terrorism’, come November it will be one thing, and one thing only: the economy. The nation is plunging into the deepest recession it’s seen for many, many generations, it has no savings, it’s loaded with debt (after decades of spending more than it earned) and there’s commodity price inflation hitting them in the checkbook every day. And remember too, that vast amounts of ‘wealth’ in the form of property values are evaporating, by some estimates nearly $3 trilion dollars will disappear!
Ladies and gentleman, this is very, very ugly, and politics aside for one moment, we should give a thought to the personal misery this whirlwind will create, which is a force more devastating than any hurricane by many orders of magnitude.
But in political terms, it’s a reminder of how empires grow fat, corrupt, and lazy with their own supremacy, and although the current administration is not to blame for all of it, they’ve thrown the accelerant on the flames with blissful ignorance of what they were doing.
God help them.
Finns & GG, no one likes a sore loser. Hillary brought her gun to the knife fight but she’s firing blanks.
He is unstoppable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2cQGuSu7JU&feature=related
TW,
Can’t wait for the “Marching Band” version. Rather than unstoppable it will be more like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5TXqZUICaA
181 js
“Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.”
That’s a much lower Obama black vote than usually occurs. I believe it represents a “reverse Bradley”. We have heard endlessly about the Bradley effect, where white voters try not to appear racist to pollsters and “fake” Obama votes which they renege on in the polling booth. The opposite should be true, where black voters do the opposite. I expect Obama will get his usual 80% black vote.
The Clinton’s have released their last seven tax returns. Personally, I don’t give a sh*t about their financial arrangements as they will not change my opinion of her one way or the other unless there is something remarkable in them. But there are an awful lot of journos looking to make their name on them by dredging up connections. I was surprised how much Bill makes from public speeches ($50M).
Ben Smith, who is an undisguised Billary shill IMHO, has pointed out that the the Clinton’s claimed $150K (!!!) for home office cleaning and maintenance in one year. There’s going to be at least a week of ugly questions and jokes to keep the Obamomentum narrowing Pennsylvania.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Worlds_cleanest_homeoffice.html#comments
KR @ 189 –
Ladies and gentleman, this is very, very ugly, and politics aside for one moment, we should give a thought to the personal misery this whirlwind will create,
Yep, gotta feel for Nelson’s poor bankers!
But also seriously, the poor buggers still have 9 months of Bush fanning the flames before anyone with at least half an idea can get their hands on the levers. They (and we) better hope they ain’t McCain’s mitts!
And as tough as it will be for the current adult generations, I suspect that the next few are going to bear an even bigger burden if “Helicopter Ben” does what he says he’ll do and just keep tossing money – i.e debt – at the problems until they go away (or treasury runs out of paper and ink).
And an ex-Governor of Puerto Rico predicts she will lose the primary there. Evidently she has shafted them recently.
The RCP “article” predicted she would win Puerto Rico by 25% easily. Barone said 30%. Obama’s campaign predicts 10%. I know who I would back out of those three.
During the question and answer portion of the event, one audience member asked Colón about the recent proposed bill, signed by Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, which states that commonwealth is not an option as a permanent status of Puerto Rico.
“That report will probably cost Hillary Clinton the primary in Puerto Rico,” Colón said.
http://media.www.dailyorange.com/media/storage/paper522/news/2008/04/04/News/ExGovernor.Discusses.Puerto.Rico.U.s.Relations-3303661-page2.shtml
Ashcroft booed for say Osama instead of Obama during a rant about the Patriot Act.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4591612
Mornin’ Sep politics tragics. Ya know, for card-carrying bludgers, some of you people are pretty industrious.
Possum at 183: “For the last 2 months I’ve been watching the Obama campaign unfold in… well, in awe.”
Yep, awe inspiring to Aussies and awesome to Seps, it’s been indeed. Brutusina is cactus. She smells bad. SDs are no longer returning her calls. Bubba’s recent red-faced dummy-spit spoke volumes to seasoned campaign watchers.
Obi’s “killing them” at the neighbourhood level, raising monster amounts at $20 and $50 a time. His audacity of hope caper has activated legions of otherwise switched-off and jaded voters. Literally tens of thousands of supporters are systematically going gangbusters to get enough voters to the polling stations so that the result in November will be beyond rigging a la OHIO 2004 and Florida 2000.
This is the Grassroots v Beltway in no uncertain terms and emphasises why The Kid is perceived by ruling elites (MIC, MSM, GOPper HQ etc.) as an existential threat to their ongoing “leadership” and industrial strength suction access to the Fed trough. “Oink, slurp, burb, squeal.” At BushCo this lust is bred right into ‘em from the moment of conception.
HST on Poppy Bush: “He has the instincts of a dung beetle. No living politician can match his talent for soiling himself in public. Bush will seek out filth wherever it lives… and when he finds a new heap he will fall down and wallow crazily in it, making snorting sounds out of his nose and rolling over on his back and kicking his legs up in the air while squealing shrilly like a wild hog coming to water.”
Obi’s ass ain’t owned. He offers a latter-day New Deal to the people with whom Kirribilli so passionately empathises.
As the greatest election show on earth chugs towards its thrilling and historic climax, I dare say some of us will age 7 years in the next 7 months but who gives a rat’s! Political change like this beckons but once in a lifetime and personally, I’d rather burn out than rust; to be aboard this rollercoaster rather than live in quiet desperation while the planet is destroyed by those whose vainglorious imperatives are best served by having a poodle reside at 1600 Penn.
Cbet latest: (back to the same board odds as before TX primaries)
OBAMA, Barack 1.90 (firms 5c)
MCCAIN, John 2.85 (steady)
CLINTON, Hillary 4.50 (drifts 25c)
Johnny Bomb-Bomb’s bedside lamp in Memphis
http://miva01.nyi.net/graphics/00000001/man_lamp7_sm.jpg
good post EC
the kind of post that makes PB the site it is.
It begins:
‘What Did Bill Clinton Do To Get $14.4M From Ron Burkle?’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/04/what-did-bill-do-to-get-1_n_95189.html
I wonder how all this will play out with the poor mountain-folk championing the underdog-battler? Still, the spinmeisters did manage to release the tax returns on a Friday at 4pm, no doubt with the hope of partially burying both them, and covering Jester in Chief Mark Penn’s lobbying for a union-busting free trade deal that Hills opposes (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/04/mark-penn-apologizes-for_n_95090.html).
The ramshackle carnival rolls on. Magnificent campaign.
Willaim – Keeping GG on task would be useful but how about resurrecting Davidoff – whose insights were very helpful.
No chance, Wakefield.
Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?
Yes, he faces an uphill battle to win. Nobody disputes that. But stranger things will happen, and at some point the press will chip away at Obama a bit more. Probably once their current playing toy drops out. And once it becomes 1v1, his odds will drop considerably. He still has at least a month left in which he can build his foundations and raise a bit of spare cash, and it’s probably close to two. I really don’t care what the press waffle about, while their may be advantages to Clinton staying in, the disadvantages almost certainly outweigh them.
Still, I think Karl Rove was on the ball when he said the wounds are fresh and look nasty, but aren’t too deep to mortally wound the eventual candidate.
The odds for Obama ($1.90) aren’t bad either, although it is questionable as to whether they could get better in the coming months. And of course there is still the chance he will lose the nomination, so it’s a bit tricky to hedge bets at this point, given there is a slight chance you can lose it all. But the McCain bet looks a goer. And anybody who plonked on Obama a few months ago can now guarantee themselves a profit by throwing a few bob on McCain.
Ah the benefits of foresight.
During Bill Clinton’s presidency, he was persuaded not to intervene in the Bosnian genocide. He read a book called Balkan Ghosts which argued that the Balkans would never be stable due to age-old conflicts. He famously wimped out in the Balkans, as did Bush 1 (Maggie Thatcher offered to start up a company called “Rent-a Spine”). And who gave him the book… Hillary “Freedom for Bosnia” Clinton. Hitchens would be proud!
The Dangers of Letting a President Read
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E00E6D61631F931A15756C0A96F958260&sec=&spon=
Thanks, HarryH.
Anyone who saw Al Gore’s performance after FL 2000 in the US Senate which was well documented in Farenheit 911, smacking down dozens of black district challengers one after the other who cried foul at the Florida result should enjoy this little gem.
Sat. April 5:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Ar.sB4_bqGlHPK..aKN3PqkDwLAF
Sat. April 5: Waste a Raghead while securing YOUR ticky-tacky* box !
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AvRdOJiDmCZ5eBrwFN1FWn3X.sgF
* Little boxes on the hillside,
Little boxes made of ticky-tacky,
Little boxes, little boxes,
Little boxes, all the same.
There’s a green one and a pink one
And a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky-tacky
And they all look just the same.
(Malvina Reynolds)
Fri. April 4: Tyranny /n. the cruel and arbitrary use of authority.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AkmdfBt3tICjweKpT5RFWhtQ_b4F
Fri April 4: “In God We Trust”, but not even God can sink this economy!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Akjph1jaZJgmHL_TmvhVch9N_b4FFirefoxHTML\Shell\Open\Command
Fri April 4: Hey! She’s an American, OK?! She saw a chance to make a buck……
so she took it!*
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=ApzkDyKO4NT7r65QYygGpxBU_b4F
*with a little help from Mae-Rose Prizzi (Angelica Houston) to Charley Partana (Jack Nicholson) in Prizzi’s Honor.
“Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?”
Not really, Max. No price is a good price about a loser. I do agree, however, that Obi’s odds of ~ $1.90 are worth the punt. A 90% ROI in seven months isn’t bad considering the quality of his opponents.
197
Enemy Combatant
Best post on I’ve read on the Obama vs Clinton race. You have put the case for Obama so succinctly. I have always believed and said that Obama as POTUS would be the best result to seriously fight Global Warming, the tension between the Muslim world and the West as well as the financial crisis that is moron Bush’s devastating legacy.
A black man, son of a Muslim as POTUS!! I believe that Obama would be a unifying figure internationally. He would go a long way in regaining the respect and solidarity as expressed by Chirac in the wake of September 11 when he said “Today we are all Americans”. We need as many unifying world leaders as we can get.
The Audacity of Hype.
From the Politico, here’s a wonderful example of Barack Obama puffery:
Even as he fends off Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination contest, Senator Barack Obama is already turning his attention to the general election, and to an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate in his favor.
Bringing new voters to the polls “is going to be a very big part of how we win,” said Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, in an interview. “Barack’s appeal to independent voters is also going to be key.”
Hildebrand said the campaign is likely to turn its attention and the energy of its massive volunteer army this fall on registering African-American voters, and voters under 35 years old, in key states.
“Can it change the math in Ohio? Very much so,” he said. “If you look at the vote spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004–we could potentially erase that.”
Ho hum, he’s preparing a general election strategy. But according to Politico, it’s “an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate”! Last month he gave a speech designed to control the political damage resulting from a dubious association. But as we noted, the Associated Press described this as single-handedly confronting the nation’s racial divide head-on!
If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”
Hey Grinch –
If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”
I told you, we’re recruiting him for the PB Synchronised Swimmers.
Just checked out the polls- He’s even going to win Pennsylvania at this stage if the trend continues, and he’s over 5% ahead on overall spread- …she’s toast.
207
Jen
That’s not what RCP has, Jen:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
…but a lead of 20pts has dribbled down quite a bit in the last few weeks, and the big Mo is surely with Obi.
I’ll agree with the last bit…she’s toast!
True KR but some of those polls used in the average are a little old. A new Survey USa one should be out soon.
Kirri,
I was referring to the fact that she has lost such a big lead in such a short time, so it’s possible he could overtake her and win it, which only days ago was not even considered possible. He’s got the momentum.
Hey GG
Hillary Deathwatch 8.8% and dropping.
http://www.slate.com/id/2188260/
What is it with you Hillarites on PB? Are you reincarnated DLP?
Are you reincarnated DLP?
You write as if this would be a bad thing?
Please explain?
Jen @ 210,
I reckon Obama can win PA, or at least get pretty close.
And, yes, she is definitely toast. I didn’t always think that, but I was a Good Friday convert – the day (Oz time) that Richardson “came out”.
I don’t want to sound like I’m pouring water on your faith Jen, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if the Kid took PA, but, I’d expect Clinton to scrape it through like Texas.
In which case, she’s still toast!
You’re probably right Kirri, but it would be the clincher, and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. There is a change afoot, and Obama is the symbol.
Dyno @ 213
It was Good Friday, hence the Judas comment from Carville. I seem to recall struggling to get some enthusiasm from my fellow bludgers who were otherwise occupied over some trivial matter.
Well GG being reincarnated DLP isn’t a bad thing. However it goes a long way in explaining why you’d support hillary ahead of obama. Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.
The world is at a critical turning point. Maintaining the status quo is the wrong option. We need DLP conservatism to hone our arguement for change. To expose the stupidity of maintaining the status quo.
Max @217,
“Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.”
Not if you are reading the same Obamaphobic tosh that passses as reportage that I am.
“The world is at a critical turning point.”
Which world would that be?
You and EC would make a great pair with your meaningless cliche driven 60’s protest song view of the world. Kumbayah indeed.
GG – This sort of reportage?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/05/clinton-under-fire-over-f_n_95218.html
“Clinton Under Fire Over False Story Of Health Care Horror”
“Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.
The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.[...]“
I’d shorten Joe Biden’s VP odds:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/05/joe-biden-the-surge-is-a_n_95221.html
“WASHINGTON — A leading Democrat on Saturday declared last year’s troop buildup in Iraq a failure. Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the military push didn’t succeed because U.S. troops remain committed there in large numbers and political reconciliation has not been achieved”
GG @ 218
Did you really man Obamaphobic tosh?
Obamaphobic would be fear of Obama.
Obamaphilic would be love of Obama.
Diogenes – stop letting facts get in the way of hillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillary…
A couple of others worth a look:
She still hasn’t worked out the meaning of ‘pledged’ here -
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=4596305&page=2
“Sen. Hillary Clinton made a blunt appeal to North Dakota delegates to switch their support to her, despite the fact that Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated her in the state’s caucus in February.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/05clintons.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1207436434-j3Dd8LQCic6vjGqI0n59oQ
“During that time, the Clintons paid $33.8 million in federal taxes and claimed deductions for $10.2 million in charitable contributions. The contributions went to a family foundation run by the Clintons that has given away only about half of the money they put into it, and most of that was last year, after Mrs. Clinton declared her candidacy.”
Diogenes,
You are right . However, English sometimes becomes a second language on Sunday mornings.
As for the media bias against Hillary, this story based on SNL says it pretty well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqtFJQ7hvI&NR=1
Check out this McCain ad! Hilarious:
http://www.johnmccain.com/service/day2_webvideo.htm
I knew it, Obama is the Shane Warne candidate.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/obama-is-smokin.html
This is a real fire under smoke moment. How can anyone trust anything this man has to say?
GG, you asked about Opes Prime the other day, well here’s an excellent article on the mess:
http://business.smh.com.au/banks-the-ringmasters-in-ruinous-financial-circus/20080404-23re.html
…and what you need to know is that the ANZ, by ‘lending’ the shares to hedge funds to short sell, basically fueled the demise of Opes.
It’s really high farce.
Its connection to the subprime disaster is that the initial falls in our market where related to the uncertaintities about financial institutions’ liquidity; ANZ just helped it along.
224
Pancho
McCain is trying to look like one of the founding fathers!
Who’s writing this stuff?
Maybe they’ve figured that Bush is seen as having lied about WMD etc, so he’s trying to make out he’s different?
It’s really pretty awful stuff, corny and pompous, and he’s only got a few lies brought out for public attention to make him look really stupid.
Amusing:
Mark Penn, the chief campaign strategist for Hillary Clinton, in his day job as CEO of the public relations and lobbying firm Burson-Marsteller, turns out to be under contract to Colombia to promote U.S. congressional passage of a free trade agreement with the South American nation. According to the Wall Street Journal, Penn met with Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. on Monday to discuss the deal. So even as he was presumably advising the Clinton campaign to sharpen its anti-trade message to win votes in Ohio, he was simultaneously stuffing himself at the pro-trade buffet.
Penn’s behavior is utterly appropriate, from the standpoint of a public relations profession. Like criminal defense lawyers, public relations executives are there do a job, irrespective of their personal feelings. No one cares whether Penn himself is pro- or anti-trade — Burson-Marsteller is in the business to make (a lot of) bucks.
But from the standpoint of Hillary Clinton, Penn’s behavior might look a little different. Personally, if I had already paid Penn $10 million for his services, I’d be miffed at his Colombia FTA moonlighting — that doesn’t seem like good value for money spent.
Salon.com
GG @ 225,
If Obama is the Warnie candidate, you’d better hope that Hillary is not Mike Gatting…
KR @ 228,
Most professions now are (at least notionally) pretty tough on conflicts of interests, real or perceived. Assuming the info is correct, what Penn has done would get him sacked if I was Clinton.
Andrew Leonard in Salon tells an interesting story about how his friend gave evidence in a congressional hearing in 1991 about deregulating the financial industry. This of course was to lead to today’s mess, and here’s what this guy told them, seventeen years ago:
Banks that need to get money to a troubled securities affiliate will do exactly the same thing. By linking up three or more banks, each with its own securities subsidiary, a daisy chain will facilitate a round robin of reciprocal loans in times of need. Then, the next time we have a Black Monday on Wall Street, this daisy chain will swing into action as a handful of mega-banks try to prop one another’s securities subsidiaries and their customers as the market plummets.
In such a scenario, billions of federally insured dollars will disappear in the twinkle of a few program trades.
That will happen, not might happen but will happen, and when it does these too-big-to-fail banks will have to be propped up with Federal money. In the smoking aftermath, Congress can stand around and wring its hands and give speeches about how awful it is that these bankers violated the spirit of the law, but once again, the money will be gone, the bill will have come due, and taxpayers will again be required to cough it up.
…no one can see they could not see it coming, unless they were willfully blind or lying.
And so, it came to pass.
“no one can SAY they could not see it coming…”
ooops.
Lies no: 11??
Obama Adviser Calls for Troops To Stay in Iraq Through 2010
By ELI LAKE, STAFF REPORTER OF THE SUN | April 4, 2008
WASHINGTON — A key adviser to Senator Obama’s campaign is recommending in a confidential paper that America keep between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in Iraq as of late 2010, a plan at odds with the public pledge of the Illinois senator to withdraw combat forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.
http://www.nysun.com/politics/obama-adviser-calls-troops-stay-iraq-through-2010
Rasmussen – Obama 51-41 Clinton
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with his largest lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 41% (see recent daily results). Obama leads 61% to 30% among Men including a thirteen-point advantage among White Men. Obama leads 84% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a seven-point edge among White voters. Among Democrats, Obama leads by four. He holds a much healthier lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.”
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Finns, from yr link:
‘Both Mr. Kahl and a senior Obama campaign adviser reached yesterday said the paper does not represent the campaign’s Iraq position
…“We have experts and scholars with a range of views and Barack appreciates this range of views. They are in think tanks and like me they write in their own voice, they are people who do their independent scholarship. Barack Obama cannot be held accountable for what we all write,” she said. Ms. Rice said she had not seen the paper, which is marked as a draft and “not for attribution without author’s permission.”
Mr. Kahl yesterday said, “This has absolutely zero to do with the campaign.” He added, “There are elements that are consistent with the Democratic Party’s approach, and I will leave it to others to find out if there are elements that are not.”’
What’s below the bottom of the barrel?
GG @ 223 I was wondering whether it may have been a Freudian slip?
I partly agree with your comments about the media. Being a hard line Chomskyist, I think the MSM are a pathetic pack of propagandists. They were unduly lax on Obama initially to create a contest. Once they got a contest, they kept it going but when Obama was blowing Hillary away they tried to even things up. Now they realise that she has lost and they’re basically just tormenting her like a cat with a half-dead mouse.
Dyno- I don’t think Penn has a conflict of interests as such. He is just espousing conflicting views. He is a public relations man after all and any opinion he has should be recognised as worthless.
Mornin’ Bludgers -
Finns and Grinch, this one is for you. And r/Ron if he’s still around…
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/05/my_fellow_clintonites_its_time_for_obama/
GG @ 225, Clinton must be Stuart MacGill.
Dyno and TW, Can you now say with any certainty that what we are seeing is Obama’s natural hair? Is that sun tan real? Remember he claims to be half white.
Which half?
Does Obama do dirty religion phone calls when he thinks no one is around.
Remember, if he lies about small things, he will lie about big things.
KR @ 226. Thanks for the follow up.
Cheers
Some movement on the superdelegate front – a Clinton backer Helen Langan moves from Clinton to the non-aligned list (dropping Clinton back to 245) while Obama picks up two new endorsements – one from Susan Montee and the other from Rod Caver taking his total to 218.
Source: Democratic Convention Watch.
Hillary was sacked from her job in the Watergate impeachment investigation. And what would that have been for? Let me guess. NO! It can’t be true…lying and unethical conduct.
“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
Watergate-Era Judiciary Chief of Staff: Hillary Clinton Fired For Lies, Unethical Behavior
http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm
Rush Limbaugh has jumped on the bandwagon on this latest scandal. Ot looks VERY bad for Billary.
On April 2, Zeifman was asked in an interview with nationally syndicated radio host Neal Boortz, “You fired her [Clinton], didn’t you?” Zeifman responded, “Let me put it this way, I terminated her along with other staff members who we no longer needed. And I said that I could not recommend her for any further positions.”
In a February 5 Accuracy in Media column, Zeifman expressed “regret that, when I terminated her employment on the Nixon impeachment staff, I had not reported her unethical practices to the appropriate bar associations.”
http://mediamatters.org/items/200804040011?f=h_latest
Good afternoon Bludgers, just took my darlin’ out for a long anniversary lunch. We talked and laughed and made plans about our future together. How sweet it was to love and be loved throughout all those wonderful years.
Dio at 242, Hillary is to hype what Winston Smith was to the Ministry of Truth.
Clinton said, “I started criticizing the war in Iraq before he did. So, I’m well aware that his entire campaign is premised on a speech he gave in 2002 and I give him credit for making that speech. But that was not a decision.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/04/05/politics/fromtheroad/entry3996192.shtml
Thanks for the kind words at 205, Vote1Maxine.
ec @ 244
I think it is more apt to say that Hillary Clinton is to ethical conduct what Jack the Ripper was to abdominal surgery.
junior senator,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040502348.html?sub=AR
Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.
Gore Vidal had some amusing things to say about him, but maybe now is not the time! LOL
It seems Obama is to Democracy what Jack the Ripper was to abdominal surgery.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040501679.html
Hmmm, “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″ – So an 911 widow gets angry.
9/11: Where Barack Obama and Condi Rice Sound Alarmingly Alike………… How could Obama have such a poor understanding of the 9/11 attacks and their subsequent impact on the US intelligence community? Has Obama even read the 9/11 Commission’s Final Report that (even in its whitewash form) calls Rice to task for her “misleading” statement about the predictability of 9/11-style attacks? Or sets forth recommendations for intelligence community reforms?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/911-where-barack-obama-an_b_94850.html
Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG? Once more, in any case – Obama was not on the ballot in MI. It is undemocratic for Hillary to be attempting to count these votes. Probably almost as undemocratic as claiming that pledged delegates are not in fact pledged. I’m not sure how these actions fit in with the democracy argument but anyway…
Both will be seated. MI as a 50/50 split, Florida probably with a half value vote. Remembering that the FL vote was Hillary 49, Obama 33, Edwards 17, Id be pretty sure that Obama would hardly lose any ground at all once this is settled.
Whether or not you want to see it, harping on about these votes is a Clinton tactic to draw out the nomination contest. Nothing more. She doesn’t want to accept defeat yet, and more power to her in a way. But she will not catch Obama, with or without these states, which is why she has not responded to his offer, after MI said there would be no further vote, to split the delegates (which seems acceptable to the State).
With regards to the SD link you posted – Obama has picked up 10 to -2 in the last couple of weeks. This has included Richardson and Casey.
Finns – that is an understandably emotional argument, but its reasoning is full of holes. If I may:
In point 1, the author uses Lee Hamilton as an authority for security knowledge
Than a sentence later gives us
In point 2, she tells us that
and goes on to note there was much intelligence that could have been utilized in being better prepared. She also assumes that Obama makes the same comment, when he responds to a direct hypothestical with “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″. Which is a fact. With regards to Rice’s response – yes, better intelligence work could have been done, and someone may have predicted 9/11. With regards to Obama’s – no one did in fact predict this singular event.
In point three
Fair enough. Overall, a pretty weak and manipulative argument though, if the above is what it is based on.
GG @ 248
It would be unconstitutional to count Michigan.
Federal judge: Michigan’s presidential primary law unconstitutional
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080326/METRO/803260443/1361
And undemocratic to count Florida, where there was no campaigning, press interviews, debates etc… you know the whole democracy bit.
Although, her boss in the Justice Department would not be surprised by this. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
I just LOVE that quote!
from 251 – point 2 – she tells us that Condi Rice said…
“I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″ is a true statement. Why do Clinton supporters have a problem with the truth? Just because their candidate has an egocentric disdain for the truth, they don’t need to follow blindly.
Pancho,
“Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG?”
Doesn’t seem to stop the Hillary Haters here. I’m thinking pots and kettles and black.
The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
“From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gain of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.
Clinton supporters say the slow pace of commitments is because of concerns, after Obama’s March 4 losses in Texas and Ohio, about whether he can win in November — doubts they have aggressively sought to stir in their private lobbying efforts.
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
All they have left is the anti Hillary mudslinging that pervades most of the alleged comment here and in the MSM.
Adding 50% more super delegates than Clinton in the same time period , while cutting her Pennsylvania lead down to 6 points from the double digit leads earlier is a stalled campaign?
If Clinton supporters are claiming this is a slow pace of commitments for Obama, aren’t they just highlighting how much slower the commitments for her are ?
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
Is he trying to attack Obi or Hillary?? great statement.
256 GG
Labelling criticism of a candidate as “mudslinging” without rebutting the criticisms doesn’t advance your argument. It’s just avoiding the issue.
Kevin,
It is the Obionekenobists that want the contest ended. Nothing has really changed since Ohio and Texas. It has all been a frenzy of inactivity.
Still two weeks plus to Pennsylvania.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 265 McCain 262 Ties 11
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 203 McCain 304 Ties 31
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 268 Ties 31
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 255 Ties 44
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 246 McCain 248 Ties 44
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 273 McCain 221 Ties 44
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 268 McCain 246 Ties 24
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Obama 261 McCain 268 Ties 9
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 31 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Obama 215 McCain 314 Ties 9
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 218 McCain 296 Ties 24
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Obama 231 McCain 292 Ties 15
From the Votemaster – http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Diogenes,
Is that a prick being consciensed I hear.
KR at 247: “Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.”
And didn’t Chucky get a bang out of life?
But never from Stephen Boyd, the Russell Crowe look-alike who played Messala in Ben-Hur.
Apparently the NRA (National Rifle Association), the humanitarian organization for whom Chucky was president from 1998-2003, and who are lobbying fiercely to have the right of citizens to bear high-powered automatic weaponry re-introduced in Washinton D.C. so that peaceable folk can defend themselves from the abstract noun terrorism in their own homes, are going to send Chucky off with a ten thousand and twenty-one gun salute after Michael Moore delivers the eulogy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben-Hur_(1959_film)
For those who simply must know, scroll down to “Possible…subtext”.
Vidal’s novels are a tad ponderous but his essays and wit are “world’s best practice”.
GG @ 262 Very droll.
Johnny Bomb-Bomb Rides Again:
http://www.dailykos.com/
scroll down to Sam Loomis piccy.
Having glommed the pic, my header to some might seem illogical but isn’t.
The first time he tried this on, Johnny chickened out, jumped off, yanked his parachute chord and wound up as a special guest of the Hanoi Hilton.
The gung-ho old warmonger is locked and loaded to give it another go over I-ran.
Stanley sure made some great films. Freakin’ maestro!
GG #256 “The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
‘From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gai puben of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.’ ”
So let me get this clear: He is leading in pledged delegates and this can’t be reversed by Denver. He is leading in the popular vote and this could only be reversed if Clinton wins Pennsylvania by about 20% whereas it’s now looking like she will either win or lose it by the length of a Brazilian bee’s pube. But despite previously winning virtually 100% of the SDs since super Tuesday he has won only 60% of same since March 5. Therefore he will not win the 31% of the SDs he will probably need to win 2025 in Denver.
Yes. his campaign has “stalled”.
It takes a village (of spinners) to raise this story from the dead:
Ohio Hospital Contests a Story Clinton Tells
By DEBORAH SONTAG
Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.
The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.
“We implore the Clinton campaign to immediately desist from repeating this story,” said Rick Castrop, chief executive officer of the O’Bleness Health System.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/5/111812/9868/558/490671
According to the MSM Obama sucks at the ten-pin bowling thing, however, as relieved in the following U-Tube video – he may has skills in basketball. GG and Finns – do you think we should attribute this to his dark side or was he just plain lucky?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daH0ltD20A0
Mornin’, All.
Sun. April 6: Santa and the Tooth Fairy are gonna sue over this !
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AgYiS8MQgh7CEpLbkcSJqOdL6ysC
Sun April 6: Fed Grunter’s Never Ending Tour D’America.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AqQf0GBin.Ztngwb78Y8IaBS_b4F
Sun.April 6: Danae has been approached to become a flack on HRC’s campaign.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=ArYOoODDsOOHW7l5eiJ6KbLd.sgF
Good Morning PBs
Obama, man of the future.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/kishore-mahbubani/2008/04/06/1207420197410.html
Penn gets a slap:
“Maggie Williams has released the following statement from the Clinton camp:
After the events of the last few days, Mark Penn has asked to give up his role as Chief Strategist of the Clinton Campaign; Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.
Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson will coordinate the campaign’s strategic message team going forward.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/mark-penn-resigns-from-cl_n_95323.html
#235
Pancho
273 js
That’s great news. Condie would hitch the McCain wagon to Bush irretrievably, and she’s as thick as a brick. Break out the champers if Macca is dumb enough to go with her. Currently Romney is the favourite who would actually be a pain in the neck for the Dems IMHO. He could keep the neocons on Macca’s side and mobilise their voters although the fundies still would be out in the cold.
This is a great article which should remind us how much we owe William for running this blog.
Running a blog is compared to working in a sweatshop!! Except the pay is worse.
In Web World of 24/7 Stress, Writers Blog Till They Drop
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/technology/06sweat.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.
Also, add on SDs being announced all the time. Two more for Obama over the past couple of days, bringing Hillary’s lead down to 25 according to: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
More “superdelegate momentum” for Obama (numbers from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/ )
Obama leads in Governors, Senators, and Add-ons
Clinton leads in Reps, DPLs and DNC (but her DNC lead is shrinking rapidly)
Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)
Position Clinton Obama None
Gov. 10 13 8
Sen. 13 17 18
Rep. 73 71 77
DPL 10 3 6
DNC 138 110 150
Add-Ons 1 6 69
Total 245 220 328
Last Updated: 4/6/2008
Why would McCain take Condi on as his VP? About the only thing the woman has done in the last 4 years is gallivanting around the globe to appear at the top of aircraft steps waving hello followed a day or two later by her on the same steps waving goodbye. I’m don’t know what they do with her between appearances – certainly there’s been precious little to show for it – but I hope they take the batteries out to save power.
MayoFeral -
she plays piano too.
Oh yes, and organises deadly invasions of sovereign countries leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents.)
#275
Diogenes wrote:
Yes and no.
Something that the article fails to address is the subject of scalability and management. The vast majority of blogs are run as ’sole proprietor’ operations – and that is very much the case here at the pollbludger. This ’sole proprietor’ model is simply not scalable and we can see evidence of this here over the last couple of months in that the scope of the topics has extended from domestic traffic to the US primaries. With this expansion the level of attention to comment mediation has dropped dramatically resulting in the questionable banning of a number of regular participants. But a layer above this are two competing functions – on one hand you have the ‘blog entry value proposition’ and on the other hand you have ‘the community’. In the case of the US Presidential Primaries theme – the blog entries are not the driving force – instead the driving force in the community – GG, Jen, KR, Diogenes, RB, EC, etc., etc. oh, and the Finns, and Ron, and everyone else who is not immediately springing to my mind just at this very moment.
The solution is plain old simple management. First of there is no reason why pollbludger could not be administered my multiple contributors. This in and of itself would have resolved many of the prior issues (ESJ, davidoff, etc.) simply because people following threads would have been aware of the context and would have dealt with things at much earlier stages. Secondly, granting editorial rights to people like KR or GG would generate an environment wherein the value of the blog entry would increase – and the tone and focus of things would be more distributed – but this is where things change from the individual to the management of a community.
If William drops dead from a heart attack tomorrow – one hypothesis would be that he failed to address the questions of scalability. William – feel free to throw me under the bus if you disagree.
277
newy stats Says:
And another one since then …
From the New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07caucus.html?_r=1&oref=slogin\
Obama: 221
Clinton: 245
Difference: 24 advantage Clinton (and dropping)
JS and NS, see my 256.
Since Texas and Ohio the change has been about 5 delegated. I only hope the momentum towards Global Warming was this slow. At this rate, Obama will possibly achieve a majority by Christmas 2010.
Nothing new, the campaign is stalled until Pennsylavania and the other Primaries in a couple of weeks.
#282
Greensborough Growler wrote:
On this – we agree.
Penn falls on his sword, (proving the sword is mightier than the Penn?):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07hillary.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…another ruction in Camp Clinton.
#256
Greeensborough Growler Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
GG – don’t worry – we have solutions.
http://www.getoverobama.com
Results of Senate elections in Zimbabwe announced. Zanu PF 30, MDC (Tsvangirai) 24 and MDC (Mutambara) 6. The spilt in MDC cost Opposition 4 seats with first past post voting.
There are 33 other Senators – 5 Senators appointed by the President; 10 Provincial Governors and 18 chiefs – 16 elected by fellow chiefs, plus the President and Deputy President of the Council of Chiefs ex officio.
So sorting out the Presidency is now the major task. What will be the next tricks employed by incumbent Mugabe.
If this campaign has hit the ‘horse latitudes’ as James Carville once called them, then it looks like Hillary has just turfed (pun!) her biggest nag overboard:
…we are locked in a campaign that is difficult for Clinton to win and near impossible for anyone to end. Small wonder there is a feeling that, with the Pennsylvania balloting still more than two weeks away, the Democratic race is in suspended animation. During a similar static period during Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, I recall James Carville showing up in the bar at the Capital Hotel in Little Rock late one night quizzing every reporter in sight about the “horse latitudes.” Carville was not prepping for a correspondence-school exam in meteorology, but trying out a metaphor (and a good one at that) for a campaign that had become becalmed like the clipper ships of old, where the only alternative was to throw the horses overboard to reduce weight and pick up some wind.
This time around, it is Hillary Clinton desperately praying for the political winds to propel her out of the doldrums. But barring a Clinton string of victories through West Virginia on May 13, the weather reports are all Obama.
Salon.com
285 junior senator-
you should have warned me that George C. was on there – now I’m doubly enthralled , nay, in fact I’m about to pass ou………
Jen:
Forget about George (except for that excellent piece in ‘O Brother, Where Art Thou?’)- the real question is Jenny Depp – is he Clinton or is he Obama?
s/Jenny/Johnny
What do you mean ‘forget george”?!!!!
As for Johnny , I am going to assume that all the drop dead-gorgeous stars are going with Obama, as he is the newest fashion accessory available.
Jen:
Think of is this way – for the average alfa male entity – George is OK – he has weaknesses – he is human whereas Jonny Depp just makes life really difficult!
Clinton dumps the Penn from Pennsylvania (and beyond) and you guys start a fan blog for some Hollywood actors?
Am I in the right place, or what? LOL
JS, I don’t think it would be a bad idea to hand over comment moderation of the US threads to somebody else. However, I’m not sure how or to whom: all the participants I can think of are highly partisan in one way or another, so giving various people mutual powers of enforcement over each other would merely take the problem to a different dimension. I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.
Sorry Kirri – slow news week, Penn’s dumping and all. Till Hillary steps a side nothing much is going to happen IMHO, as no matter how well she does in Pennsylvania she is not going to outperform Obama – besides she is so covered in mud now that she is unelectable.
William – I think oyu do a great job with this disparate and unruly group that we are. I suspect handing it over to any/all of us would lead to gang warfare on PB.
Js – Johnny is indeed a problem for you mere mortal males, however no one does a hairnet like George.
You Clinton fans will be pleased to know that even the most ardent Obama admirer such as me can be appalled at this
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_gun_dance.html.
the madness of America encapsulated.
The best way to handle this board is to warn and ban trolls.
I do not feel that the banning of Davidoff was warranted, compared to some of the previous behaviour of other known trolls. Many times the trolls provoke crossfire by posting numerous personal insults instead of reasoned argument.
It doesn’t take much browsing through these last few threads to see who the trolls are. Unfortunately, there are thousands of posts and good luck to anyone who has the patience to wade through it all.
There are certain posters who contribute absolutely nothing to threads here bar personal insults and it certainly amazes me the amount of latitude they receive compared to Davidoff. Consistency should be the key in determining punishments.
Whilst I believe in freedom of speech and am more then happy to get into a flamewar with those that have little other purpose to their lives, it really detracts from the overall quality of analysis on these threads.
I believe certain double standards exist here which happens in real life such as the ABC board. Whilst its good to have a range of opinions, there is a difference between a logical reasoned opinion and a mere rant. It doesn’t take much to see which is which. Nevertheless, this is William’s board and he does a good job to ensure that order is somewhat maintained without being overly restrictive.
asanque-
the odd rant is good for the health. Lots of the stuff on here is off the point and often quite silly (guilty) but for the most part it is entertaining. There are occasions where posters get out of line I agree, but generally someone tells them to pull their head in.
I dont know much about running sites such as this but it seems a fairly onerous task given it runs day and night every day. I also guess there is a certain amount of behind the scenes action where posts are banned and we never see them and perhaps email complaints to William which we dont see.
I doubt that such a group of strong opinion people would readily accept regulation by others who they are strongly disagreeing with. Equally the current situation tends to encourage a level of “irresponsibility” from participants in that people can push the limits and rely on William to set the rules. But William, what happens when you want a holiday or just need a break. There does need to be a backup system of editorial people.
Also a legal issue of reponsibility – effectively we would need to have a responsible collective who would answer for any issues with regulation, defamation etc.
William – you might provide look at providing a checklist on the website for people as to what is unacceptable behaviour and how to avoid your intervention. (labelling of others as “trolls” is hardly an objective business from my reading). Also perhaps some info on costs and how people can help make site ongoing viable?
298 – Jen
Whilst I like a good rant just as much as anyone else. There is a difference between a rant and stalkerish abusive behaviour. I only need to point out ESJ and his obsession with your photo.
Obama’s Achilles’ heel, From Time:
“Patriotism is, sadly, a crucial challenge for Obama now. His aides believe that the Wright controversy was more about anti-Americanism than it was about race. Michelle Obama’s unfortunate comment that the success of the campaign had made her proud of America “for the first time” in her adult life and the Senator’s own decision to stow his American-flag lapel pin — plus his Islamic-sounding name — have fed a scurrilous undercurrent of doubt about whether he is “American” enough”.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1727502,00.html
Obama May Not Have Fully Contained
Damage From Ex-Pastor, By NICK TIMIRAOS
April 7, 2008; Page A4
Sen. Barack Obama’s Philadelphia speech on race relations last month seemed to put the controversial remarks of his former pastor behind him. But three weeks later, there is evidence of lingering damage. “It has not been defused,” says David Parker, a North Carolina Democratic Party official and unpledged superdelegate. He says his worries about Republicans questioning Sen. Obama’s patriotism prompted him to raise the issue of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.’s remarks in conversations with both the Obama and Clinton campaigns.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120752539182393613.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
#296 – they shoot horses, dont they? in Chicago.
Finns
give me Obama’s problems over Billary’s and Bomb Bomb’s any day.
Mark Penn gets jettisoned at a crucial phase of Hillary’s losing campaign and Finn wants to flog a dead horse like Wright!
That is hysterically funny!
Mark Penn was a liability for Hillary in any case.
He’s glad that he still is in charge of polling and gets paid, but gets the added bonus of disclaiming all responsibility once Hillary loses.
Remember, Mark Penn was in charge of the wildly successful, small states and caucuses don’t matter strategy.
Greetings PBers. Having been away from the screen for a few days, I skimmed the intervening posts – which gave a sense the tidal flow. I have to say, the Hillary supporters are more and more like the Black Knight from the ‘Holy Grail’. After every new blow – be it another bad Pennsylvania poll (all of the recent ones), another Clinton campaign resignation (M Penn), or another Hilary lie exposed (the hospital tragedy), the responses are along the lines of: “’tis but a scratch”; “just a fleshwound”; or “c’mon then, I’ll bite your legs off” and similar samples of contrived hope for a lost cause.
Never mind, you Black Knights of the Blog, there’ll be plenty of room for you on the Obama bandwagon when Hillary drops out.
As to the “Great Southern Concession Date Challenge”, these are the current entries as best I can tell. Correct me if I’m wrong:
Valid Entries (all Hillary to concede):
JV : 23 April @ 1000
Jen: 24 April @ 1000
Dyno: 24 April @ 1400
EC: 25 April @ 0900
HarryH: 7 May @ 1200
Pancho: 8 May @ 1200
Ferny: 3 June @ 2145
Asanque: 10 June @ 1400.
Prize Bottles so far 6 in total, from the very generous: Jen, Ferny, EC, JV, Dyno, Diogenes*
*By the way Diogenes, if FernyG doesn’t take all of those superfluous, space-taking bottles ….
It’s amazing how the so called intelligent people can miss the point completely. Obama’s Patriotism is being questioned. Who’s talking about Rev. Wright.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel – Samuel Johnson
306 – And what’s your answer to that question Finns?
We’re going to miss you arseanque the troll.
Oh look here’s the Green Grinch again with his always worthwhile contributions to this blog.
Look just how much he contributes with his incisive wit and commentary.
Its often been heard that the Green Grinch practises his zen art of commentary with Miss Teen USA of South Carolina, but has so far failed to win a single debate.
Miss South Carolina quotes “he is like creepy”
GG, I’ve asked you a number of times not to make comments that amount to nothing more than abuse directed at other commeters.
Finns – Johnson’s observation put another way:
“Many a bum show has been saved by the flag.”
~ George M. Cohan
As we observed here in Aus with the Tampa election.
In the US, though, perhaps this is more appropriate:
“God and Country are an unbeatable team; they break all records for oppression and bloodshed.”
~ Louis Buñuel
William here is a prime example of when you fail your duty to crack down on stalkers and trolls.
If you don’t set an example and punish the Green Grinch for his consistent and flagrant moronic posts, you condone this misbehaviour and its constantly repeated.
Is this the type of blog you are aiming for?
Questioning his ‘patriotism’? First it was his colour…black enough? Then it was his religion…is he Muslim? Then it was his pastor…is he too agro? And now it’s his ‘patriotism’?
Oh, Finn, spare me!
Better question his bowling score for all the relevence it has! LOL
KR,
It comes back to your magic word “character”. This issue will not be wished away.
Please don’t lecture me about my “duty”, Asanque – the meaning of which I don’t think you understand terribly well.
316 – William
You don’t have to do anything, its your blog.
However, in the last 3-4 threads you will find multiple examples (at least 5) of the Green Grinch attacking other posters not including myself without any provocation.
You will also find posts from other blog users sick of the nonsense he spouts and saying they will not post again.
I question your judgment in allowing a post like 173 to remain which is offensive in any respects.
I also question your judgment in banning Davidoff.
However, as I said it is your blog.
I am happy to also stop posting here if you feel it appropriate to allow users to attack other users constantly without repercussions.
We all bear the consequences for our own actions, and you can either take in constructive input or not.
Your call.
gee, these Obamaphiles are a sensitive lot.
Finns
Isn’t the Grand old USA the “Land of Hope & Glory”?
Aren’t Obama’s catchphrases “The Audacity of Hope” and “Yes We Can”?
Doesn’t sound unAmerican to me.
He has a small racism problem to overcome(which the Wright issue plays to) but this is mainly in GOP voters anyway. Obama more than makes up for this with his positives…as the turnouts and new registrations suggest.
He has far less negatives and far more positives to carry into this election than Billary and Bomb Bomb.
The reason I haven’t deleted 173 is that I don’t think there’s much point. Blog comments have a very short shelf life: everyone who was ever going to be offended by the comment already has been, and deleting it won’t change that. I do agree that it should have been deleted (or better yet, not posted) in the first instance. In the same circumstances, I never deleted the comment by Davidoff that indirectly led to him being banned. He was actually banned for wilfully refusing to do what I asked of him, which I will always do every time it happens.
HarryH,
More the “Audacity of Hype”.
“Yes we can” is the catch cry of kindergarten aged children in response to the Bob the Builder song. Hardly a catchphrase for the political savvy.
Obama has brought race to the forefront. And racism is not restricted to Republicans I can assure you.
Obama’s drug use has not begun to to play out. Trite nicknames for other candidates is no substitute for reasoned debate.
320 – William
Great. So by agreeing that it ’should’ have been deleted and not deleting it, you set the strongest possible message that this type of behaviour is not acceptable.
I’ve enjoyed my time posting here William and I appreciate your efforts in maintaining this blog. I’ve been posting here since Mid-2007 and have made a donation in the past.
As a final gesture of goodwill, I hereby dedicate any wine prize (from jv and others) won due to my prediction of Hillary conceding in June to William Bowe.
However, obviously its time to move.
Goodbye folks, its been great blogging with you, and there have been too many good posters to name. I’m sure I’ll see you on other forums in the future.
You know what is the only real tedious and shitty thing about running a high traffic blog (well, apart from lawyers)?
Dealing with people that “demand” some comment be removed, or “demand” that some commenter be banned.
Billbowe goes to extraordinary lengths to run this place well, he puts enormous amounts of time into it and deserves far better than to have people whinging at him to do this and do that from arsehole to breakfast time. Be thankful that you have the place at all!
This is politics folks, passions are strong, heads are harder and often brains get quite soft upon occasion – If the thread doesnt go the way you like it and some evil jellybean is picking on you – well tough luck, suck it up and move on. Have some one humping your leg – welcome to political discussion everywhere.
Be nice – it’s efficient. When you slap, do it with a smile.
But dont poke the Billbowe with a tedious stick… it can bite.
Deleting the comment would send no message at all, because nobody would notice.
Thank you for coming, and all the best for your future endeavours.
Solidarity, Reg …
Sorry if you’re ‘going finish’ Asanque – if you don’t have a change of heart, thanks for your posts, and good punting.
Asanque
just keep posting your thoughts on politics. They’re good.
every persons posts on here are a reflection of them and no-one else. William will handle the rest.
just don’t fall for the baiting tactics of a persistent old attention seeker.
it’s quite easy.
I see Asanque has put his cue in the rack. So long and best wishes. A song that perhaps epitomises our relationship.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPDNGtr1ar8
how does the saying go? if you cant stand the heat, then get out of the blog. what a cry baby.
Pancho at 276: “js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.”
Spot on , Pancho. Condi is a total PNAC, Project for a New American Century facilitator, the lovely folk who turned the “opportunity” of 9/11 into the bs war on terrorism, and for the glory of Moloch and Mammon through war profits and spigot access, pushed and spun the invasion and occupation of Iraq.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
These are not nice people. The rogues gallery with mugshots is worth a quick squiz. (scroll down ornithorhynkus-paradoxus page)
http://www.platypuspool.com/axisofevil.html
Many of these schmucks were on hand to hear Howard’s address in Washington a few weeks back.
WB at 294: “I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.”
Yup, but we love it when you have your occasional after hours little absences, William. There’s been some wonderful discussions on History, Literature, film and life matters that could be at best described as “tangential” to the topic of Sep. politics, yet amazingly, when you crack the whip most of us instinctively know what will happen should we transgress further.
http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/3336108.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=4DAA13B573E1BD2FF802CC1DDA9073D0A55A1E4F32AD3138
EC @ 330,
No purring yet, but a definate smile.
Cheers
This one is out of the blue (or darkness?) from the Jakarta Post:
Islam ‘recognizes homosexuality’
Homosexuals and homosexuality are natural and created by God, thus permissible within Islam, a discussion concluded here Thursday.
Moderate Muslim scholars said there were no reasons to reject homosexuals under Islam, and that the condemnation of homosexuals and homosexuality by mainstream ulema and many other Muslims was based on narrow-minded interpretations of Islamic teachings.
Siti Musdah Mulia of the Indonesia Conference of Religions and Peace cited the Koran’s al-Hujurat (49:3) that one of the blessings for human beings was that all men and women are equal, regardless of ethnicity, wealth, social positions or even sexual orientation.
“There is no difference between lesbians and nonlesbians. In the eyes of God, people are valued based on their piety,” she told the discussion organized by nongovernmental organization Arus Pelangi.
“And talking about piety is God’s prerogative to judge,” she added.
“The essence of the religion (Islam) is to humanize humans, respect and dignify them.”
http://old.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20080328.@02&irec=1
But what happens, Grasshopper, when the pointy bits of a “Classic Pincer Narrowing” actually touch each other?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/06/arg_poll_deadlocked_in_pennsylvania.html
This is getting particularly ugly for the candidate who once cavorted topside a 28% spread!
————–
Jolly decent of you at 331, GG.
There was a time when anything George W Bush said about the Middle East, and his grand plan to install democracy there was dutifully reported. Remember his “democracy from Baghdad to Palestine”?
Well, it looks like he got it right, except in reverse: Baghdad now resembles Gaza.
Sadr City has been cordoned off, as they lob missiles into the Green Zone killing the odd person there, and then the US bombs the crap out of them.
And all the while John McCain is talking about ‘victory’ in Iraq, like he’s got any idea what it even means, but he’s going to have a long time to explain how this remotely resembles it.
Enemy Combatant, those links are all very amusing. However, here is a reality check:
1. Whatever you might think of his policies, McCain is no idiot. Only an idiot would ask Condaleeza Rice to join them on the ticket in tis political climate. Contrary to what the liberal-leaning US mainstream media would have you believe that McCain has just about no good options, there are least half a dozen excellent options and another half a dozen decent ones after that;
2. It has to be said that McCain is, from the point of view of the Democrats, polling disturbingly well in places like Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among others. Furthermore, I’m talking about the respectable polls by orgs like Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Insider Advantage, not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids;
3. I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out, however the polls this early out in 2004 proved to be a remarkably good guide to what happened on the first Tuesday in November (in the US that is, not in Melbourne);
4. Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;
5. What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).
Seems to me that once again the Democrats are well on track to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Then again, they are experts at it – just once since World War II have they exceeded 50% of the popular vote. Conversely (and I may have to stand corrected), I reckon there are only three times since WW2 when the GOP has polled less than about 48%, and for 2 of those three you have to factor-in a little fellow called H. Ross Perot
At this stage, 7 months out from polling day, it would seem the possibilities range from Democrats by the narrowest of margins to a solid victory falling something short of landslide.
I look forward to being amused by the shock everyone expresses around the world when low and behold the Republicans retain the White House yet again. Pity for the United States though
What I meant in penultimate para of last post was solid victory for McCain
Chris from Edgecliffe,
I have ben waiting for your arrival.
Welcome to the cauldron.
336 Chris
I think the odds at the moment of Obama at evens and Macca about 11/8 are about right. The huge turnout at the Dem primaries is very encouraging but the longer it takes Obama to haul in the nomination, the closer the odds will get. I don’t think Hillary will give up until shortly before the convention, by which time it will be line ball. If she were to chuck it in after Pennsylvania with the promise of Senate Majority leader or New York Governor, and go into bat for Obama the current odds would be pretty close.
301 Finns
I thought “patriotism” would be a problem for Obama but this poll shows that he is considered the MOST likely to share American values. Here are the other main findings.
*Fifty-three percent of voters think John McCain’s policies would favor the rich. Thirteen percent say the same about Barack Obama.
*Eleven percent of voters are very confident that John McCain will make correct decisions about the economy. Forty-two percent are not confident. He’s the worst-rated of the three remaining candidates in this regard.
*Sixty-nine percent of voters (Democrats and Republicans) expect Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination.
*Fifty-six percent of Democratic-primary voters think Obama is better able to beat McCain in November. Thirty-two percent think Clinton is.
http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/
Chris – all interesting points, but most could do with a challenge.
Reports are that Condi is actively canvassing. You say that only an idiot would accept Condi, but surely this is only because of her foreign policy positions. McCain is more gung-ho than Bush (and by extension Condi) so I don’t think it all that far-fetched that he would consider her.
With regards to his frontrunning options Charlie Christ and Romney each have their problems with the Republican base. Most others would need months of introduction. I don’t think his options look all that flash.
Yes McCain is polling well, but he has no opposite, the Democrats are not advertising against him yet, and he is not being challenged on his gaffes. Further the press is almost wholely focussed on the Dems race, and there is the issue of bad feeling in the Dems camp at the moment which will inflate a McCain vote against either challenger.
In 2004 there was a sitting President who was campaigning against a party in flux with all the advantages of the Office. This time around, the Democrats are on the advance and hold both Houses. They have better organisations, and McCain does not wish to use the trappings surrounding this particular President for obvious reasons. I think the situation is wholely different to 2004.
No one could totally dismiss these polls, but remember every time there is a divisive nomination process we see similar. There were times in 2000 where over 50% of McCain voters said they could not vote for Bush. When the press tightened its focus on a partisan race, they flocked back. The Democrats will probably do the same when they focus on McCain.
While the DNC is not raising much money at the moment, Obama has revolutionised fundraising. He has raked in something in the order of $150 million this year alone. Clinton has also dragged in a pile. This is not money that will disappear – if need be it will go back to the donors with a request to pass it on to a third party. In addition to this the RNC is in dire financial states, and McCain has not managed to sign up a whole lot of Bush donors as yet. The Dems have a great advantage at the moment with regards to cash.
I think all of your points are fair, but there are also reasons why the Dems, even without a nominee and with a fighting going on, are still the short priced favourites for November.
#339, Amigo, i seem to remember that there is a saying that goes like this: “Maturity is when you feel you are right but you dont have the compulsion or feel the necessity to prove someone else is wrong”.
Finns, I’m sure in your mind that aint a non-sequiter. Good on you! I applaud creative thinking. But for the record (and I know it must be getting tiring to admit with ammo running so low) politics is a battle of interpretation and ideas. I got no proof here, just opinion. And again for the record, I’m happy to share, and receive response
.
On the immaturity front, I am looking forward to that jig.
Edgecliff Chris,
1/ “McCain is no idiot.”
Especially when Joey “The Rat” Lieberman is there to whisper tactical mis-spoke modifications in his ear.
2/ “not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids”
No reason to get excited, Chris, Citizen Rupert has deigned that Shill Shanahan is always on hand to provide “The Correct Broadsheet Interpretation” of any toshy tabloid polls.
3/ “I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out,” (it’s, pull-ease)
Chris, Confucius said that amateur psephologists who placed “too much weight” upon “early polls” were treading on thin ice and soon for serious chilling.
4/ “Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;”
Vice versa does not apply here, Chris. Are you not aware of Ecky’s Law? The Annals of Pseohology are rife with his wisdom. Ecky’s Law states: “Whomsoever of Brutusina’s followers do a dummy-spit homestay on Nov. 4 will be countered numerically by previously non-voting eligibles who buy Obi’s audacity of hope pitch.”
5/ “What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).”
Chris, (may I reply to your rhetoric bustfully?)”……….. looks like a double D-cup to me. And, mate, it’s “lo and behold”. Have you ever considered attending a refresher course at St. Apostrophe’s Acadamy for the punctuationally challenged?
Dead set, you’re a walk up start.
Oh, good grief, been pre-fisked by Pancho. Beautifully done, son.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisking
And isn’t it lovely that Growler has now got somebody to pal around with.
Latest Board-Odds from Cbet.
President – WINNER
The Kid (firmed 5c overnight) 1.85
Johnny Bomb-Bomb (steady) 2.85
Brutusina (drifted 50c overnight) 5.00
But best of all, Chris, if you slightly modify you handle to Edgecliff Chris, there will be two ECs on this blog:)
I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes under the principle of “command responsibility” for the torture interrogations. My prayers may be answered.
Andrew Sullivan: Bush Administration Officials Will Be ‘Indicted For War Crimes’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/andrew-sullivan-bush-admi_n_95305.html
Using the RCP poll list for the the Obama/Clinton Penn contest:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
What I found interesting was the change in the spread over time.
Here’s what the spread looks like (with Clinton positive and Obama negative) as a simple time series where all polls make up the actual line.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/04/penntimeseries.jpg
But this is what they look like when the series is spread into its individual pollsters, where the “obs” at the bottom stands for ‘observations’ and is just the number of the poll in that RCP list, with the latest poll being the 41st observation.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/04/pennspread.jpg
It shows a clear movement for all pollsters toward Obama over the last little bit, and is the only time in Penn that those polls cover which so a unanimous movement toward Obama.
This one looks like it will be tougher for Clinton than she ever imagined a place like Penn would be.
oops – “which saw a unanimous movement toward Obama”.
Typical, I buy a vowel, get the wrong one and end up short changed of a consonant to boot.
CFE,
Great post. Got the munchins running everywhere.
Who do you think will win the Democrat nominaton?
Who is the most likely to win the POTUS?
#341 – Amigo – [I am looking forward to that jig] – i also seem to remember in our uni days, there was another saying that “why wait until November, fail now and avoid the rush”.
A couple more salient quotations suggesting that the concept of patriotism in elections has had a run before. It is clearly going to get a run in this election too. They’ll try to wedge Obama on it (just like JWH & Co wedged Beazley and Latham, and tried vainly to wedge Rudd, on Iraq, terrorism, and the war on boat people).
Over to Hermann Goering, President of the Reichstag, Nazi Party, and Luftwaffe Commander in Chief:
“Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
“When a dog barks at the moon, then it is religion; but when he barks at strangers, it is patriotism!”
- David Starr Jordan
The dogs will keep barking at Obama on both issues, but I don’t think the current US dogs have teeth sharp enough to hurt him:
Off topic, but you might be amused, as I was on the weekend, by the Byron Shire Echo’s front page for April 1 – a parody of The Australian. Mungo MacCallum does a regular column in the Echo, a fiercely independent paper, and I wondered if he might have had something to do with that front page.
http://www.echo.net.au/pg.php?pg=01&issues_id=22_42&view=gif
Albrechtson and Shanahan are obviously in trouble!
Diogenes @ 343 [I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes]
I hope so. – I read an article in the New Yorker on the weekend about Sabrina Harman, who took a lot of the pictures at Abu Ghraib. It is a most unsettling article/interview. At this link is the article and there is a link from there to the pictures and video of some of the interview as well. Breathtaking that not one senior officer was ever punished for what the army knew was murder as well as torture, or torture gone wrong, at the prison, including some by the CIA, let alone the grotesque photography.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/24/080324fa_fact_gourevitch
jv @ 349
I note that Errol Morris co-wrote the article. He is the best doco maker I have seen. A string of masterpieces from Fog of War to Thin Blue Line to Gates of Heaven. No-one captures pathos the way he does. And the Philip Glass soundtracks add a poignant inevitability to the films.
Diogenes @ 343 – While it sounds promising the reality is there are few countries that would risk the wrath of the U.S. by arresting any of the Bushites for war crimes and those that wouldn’t be intimidated are unlikely to act given their own appalling records.
The odds on Howard et al facing justice are better, though still very slim. I know of one legal group actively pursuing this.
Diogenes – The NY article is excerpts from this book:
‘”Standard Operating Procedure”, a book written by Philip Gourevitch and Errol Morris to be published by Penguin Press on May 15, 2008.’
I like Philip Glass – I have the soundtracks for The Hours and Koyaanisqatsi in the car. The latter is rather unusual, but its atmospherics work well in the car.
Tectonic, Mayo; the inching, meanwhile Mochy rules eh?
jv @ 348 – the Byron Shire Echo – aka North Coast Australian has a weekly circulation of 22,700? Heck, that would have to be more than the other Australian, wouldn’t it?! Maybe it’s they who should be taking over News Ltd!
Two years ago or so, Glenn Greenwald euthanased his original blogspot to take up an offer to write a regular gig for Salon. In 2006 his book “How Would A Patriot Act” went from nowheres-ville to No. 1 on Amazon in a matter of days from release, solely on the strength of “word of mouth” on the blogosphere. This feat was akin to leaping publishing/marketing Everest in a single bound.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Greenwald
Great to see him getting a guernsey on HuffPo to publicize his latest book.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-greenwald/great-american-hypocrites_b_95317.html
Grenwald is one of the political blogospheres’ greats. Mind like a steel trap and writing that’s smoother than Shanghai silk.
Dio at 343, share your enthusiasm. The journey to justice begins with these significant first steps. The MSM have stiffed this story for years. This is not so much a can, as a mega-vat full of worms, and a mess of early-bird truth-vultures have begun to circle.
Jv and Dio, here’s another superb NYer essay about Abu Grahib from Sy Hersh in 2004.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/05/17/040517fa_fact2
And yes, one hears Mungo’s resonance all over the Echo article.
Thanks, Poss, for the Penn charts:
Da girl “dead”!!….. only she don’ know it yet!
You can tell by the look on her face that “death” was always gon be a surprise to her ass! (Richard Pryor)
Good to see you back, codger, you dodgy doggerelist!
Hope asanque has a good night’s kip and a rethink and soon rejoins us as well.
When I first went to LP, I got my blog butt whupped bigtime and suffered many a ding to my pride. Had a little spell, got over it, re-jigged my approach and now really enjoy popping in there from time to time to learn, share and play.
Oh dear, she’s done it again. What a run of bad luck Hillary’s having with the truth. I think there must be a vast truth conspiracy against her:
“In Oregon, Clinton Makes False Claim About Her Iraq Record Vs. Obama’s”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/in-oregon-clint.html
EC – thanks for that article – bedtime reading.
MayoF @ 354 – The Byron Shire Echo should rule the media world, for sure.
Ta EC; but reserve my right etc…(powder dry option)
Good to see your toga neat & tidy!
#301
The Finnigans referenced a Time article detailing Obama’s Achilles’ heel.
#349 jaundiced view posted a reference to an article detailing life inside Abu Ghraib. Around page 9 is the following comment …
Finns, I was just thinking that maybe character and intelligence trump the gross stupidity of blind ignorant patriotism.
A new Pennsylvania poll from American Research Group, Inc. is out.
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 45%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 6%
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-704.html
ROTFLOL – only in America!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/clinton-the-boys-made-me-tough
Decay is slow motion ..
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/04/proclinton-cuomo-loses-spokesm.html
Finns – your #301 comment just bounced back into my line of fire (again).
I wasn’t even thinking about you – it was just another one of those articles I was reading in which this patriot thing came up and this time it was patriotism linked to that Wright guy – and so naturally you just appeared in my imagination – sort of with a ‘plop’ sound and a 301 sign branded onto your forehead – but I’m digressing …
Here is what someone called Bob has to say on the subject.
Keep in mind – I’m just an observer on the sidelines – but don’t you find it funny that the word ‘patriot’ can on one hand point us to greatness, and on the other hand can point to the terrible darkness of humanity. I guess what I’m really thinking is that anyone posting about ‘patriotism’ should think deep and hard about the consequences and implications of that word.
BREAKING NEWS
For everyone who loved the West Wing – this is classic.
And the last not for the evening …
Today’s Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a nine-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, well outside the margin of error. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 52% (+3)
Clinton 43% (-3)
And here comes another superdelegate for Obama, clearly pissed off with the Clinton behaviour:
The collapse of the large Clinton lead in Pennsylvania has been confirmed across several recent polls now:
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/its-a-race-in-pennsylvania.html
Not included in the above is the latest American Research Group poll which showed a tie. (see j/senator’s link @ 361)
If Hillary were to lose Pennsylvania, then surely she wouldn’t carry on. It would be one Black Knight limb too many.
Good morning Bludgers , happy to be back & looking forward to the warm welcome, after Labor projects & sojourns
j/v , Clinton concede for the Party & give up a mathematical chance of POTUS ! An ivory tower view of politics. Heavyweight Pollies including your precious Obama think of their ambition first , always have & always will.
What you fail to realise is through US voters eyes rather than Aussie ones , is without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama & made him the Nominee already. But then you still misunderstand US patriotism to the Aussie version & the current & future Pastorgate relevance to it
369
jaundiced view
Although to be realistic, there’s an awful lot of white working class voters who’d vote McCain before they’d vote Obama, so Hillary Clinton is still more than likely able to win PA. But if she can’t get her lead into at least double figures she’s going to see even more of the shine (what’s left of it) rub off.
Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.
With Penn falling out, her money problems getting worse, it’s likely the internal morale of Camp Clinton will wipe the rictus grin off her face and get her to confront what she’s been avoiding, ie, that she cannot win. And as more of the Supers drift to Obama every week, the slow drip drip will have to crack her.
“the slow drip drip will have to crack her.”
You are joking as usual. Hillary has ‘ticker’ so she will not crack . She will only concede when ‘politically’ she thinks the game is up.
However “Ticker’ is one of the question marks now up for question about Obama after Pastorgate.
The only relevance of Pensylvania is if Hillary can win another big State by any margin & the momentum effect of the final margin on the number of SD’s that then commit
G’Day, Gang, that bloody Wiley guy who does Non Sequitur has etched himself upon my brain. He bad, Bludgers, he bad!
What should you tell your precociously politically-aware child when she asks:
“Daddy, can you give me two good reasons why Senator McCain is unelectable?”
“Well, Sweetie, my pop always used to say that a picture saved a thousand words.”
http://www.cagle.com/working/080404/sack.jpg
……“And Senator McCain is publicly very close to disgraced President George Bush. Some folks have called Senator McCain an “Imbecile Hugger” which is downright impolite but sometimes a person has to speak plainly to make the point.”
http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g205/1267659/mccain_bush-hug-713122.jpg
“…….and the two of them wear the same coloured trousers and shirts, even their fashion accessories (belts and ties) are the same style and colour.”
http://www.truthdig.com/images/eartothegrounduploads/mccain_bush_hug_300.jpg
“Oh, yes! Thank you, daddy, I get it now. Senator McCain is a Try Hard.
He’s got no chance!”
This article points out the correlation between how the SDs endorse and whether their state is Obama or Clinton. There is a strong correlation. And there are more uncommitted SDs in “Obama” states than “Clinton” states. So the undecideds would have to go against the pledged delegates, the popular vote AND their own states vote to even give Billary a sniff. I just cannot se that happening.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html
greig @ 370 –
In a big vote of confidence in Mark Penn, the Hillary Deathwatch actually IMPROVES her chances by 0.5% to 9.3% due to her throwing Penn under the bus.
http://www.slate.com/id/2188400/
374 without the html stuff-up:
greig @ 370 – [without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama]
Yes, Hillary would stay until political death. I just think it has already happened. The remaining SD’s seem to be getting restless, and with 3/4 plus of them going Obama’s way, before and after Pastorgate it doesn’t seem that beat-up changed anything at all.
As to patriotism, of course the Repugs, and also Clinton in the short remaining period of her candidacy, will push the patriotism button a lot, but that’s just standard fare for all elections. Obama can take that – he’ll be teflon coated because of the overall climate for change (like Rudd was). The patriotic dog-whistling will be muddied waters anyway due to the Iraq war being a stinking electoral swamp. The ’super-patriot’ neo-cons have made patriotism an unsettleing pursuit with a lot of voters, and it won’t resonate nearlyas much as usual. (Remenber the Vietnam political wash-up?)
If you don’t believe me, have a look at soldier Sabrin Harman’s quote on what patriotism meant in Abu Ghraib, from an interview in the New Yorker – at j/s’s post @ 360 . No-one, not even Americans, can warmly embrace patriotism when it is represented in images like those of such inhumanity. And there’s more to come on all of that during the campaign.
KR – [if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run]
Agreed – even 10% in Penn will be half the Clinton expectations of a couple of weeks ago, and the momentum will stay with Obama, while Hillary bleeds to death through the truncated stumps of her four limbs.
Greig, more pastorgate? You don’t know our special friend (R/r)on do you?
The Superdelegates are coming out one by one because they want to be seen to be making an independent assessment and decision on who is the parties best nominee. If the SDs move as a block it will put one supporter group or the other offside as it will be seen that the machine has conspired against one candidate or the other.
Let’s not play these I have a finger on the pulse of American sentiment and you don’t, games. That was the good Dr Carr’s belief and he came a cropper.
On a tangential note, here are the first five headline articles on the Sydney Morning Herald site at the moment:
Shark Attack: teen dead
School machete rampage: 101 charges
Incest father’s daughter traumatised
Child hero as bus driver leaves brake off
Mother keeps healthy son in wheelchair
…spot a theme?
Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.
God save us, if it’s not already too late.
377
TurningWorm
Ah, Das Wunderkind, we do miss his insights so! And I’m still pining for more of his slapping now that Hillary is obviously winning the nomination.
Us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ have so much penance to do, eh?
KR @ 378 [Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.]
Don’t worry KR, the Byron Shire Echo is on the move into the mainstream
j/v , its Ron greig by the way.
You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.
Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.
It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card
My personal view of US ‘patriotism’ (whilst I think its over the top) is irrelevant
j/v , its Ron greig by the way.
You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.
Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.
It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card
380
jaundiced view
I look forward to Mungo’s Billinudgel view of the world going mainstream, but seriously doubt the rest of Australia will! LOL
God spare us this tripe. I think the intertubes have a lot to answer for in lowering the already diminished national IQ a few more points.
j/v ,
will reply to your blog from my view of US patriotism . Its Ron greig by the way
Here we go again, another Bludger with an identity crisis! What is it about this site that stimulates otherwise seemingly sane indididuals to lose track of themselves?
KR,
“Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.”
A triumph of mythematics. You win by not being thrashed by as much as you expect. Is that a straw argument I see being built?
Oh, and I notice today’s “willy willy” tale of alleged SDs turning to Obama has arrived early. Nothing has changed! You guys are like Glen Milne looking for the dirt on Rudd. There is none, but that doesn’t stop him(and you) banging on about it.
not sure if the compliment was directed at me,
but Mrs…..(followed by the bloggers names here) would enthall spouses and amuse the kids.
GG, still flogging that dead horse Hillary eh?
She’s losing, behind, unable to get to the line ahead of Obama and PA was her last ‘big state’ to take with 20 plus points. But it now looks likely she’ll squeak it in, again.
So tell me how that’s going to get a deluge of Supers onto her side? Hmmm? It won’t, and as each week goes by, her campaign looks more and more moribund. She ain’t winning anything, not the nomination, and not against McCain.
Toast. Buttered side down.
KR,
Ready to show me 2025 eh?
Obama is boast. With all that hot air spewing out, I suspect him and his supporters are the real cause of global warming.
Popcorn season starts again soon.