Another week, another Pennsylvania countdown thread. I owe Andrew Bolt a link, so see here for a revealing view of the Gallup poll trend as the Reverend Jeremiah Wright affair fades from view.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,141 Comments
Help…send err…….. & that toooooo….Mr Bowe fades?!?!? The cheek.
‘I’ll organise some coffeee and dumb nuts’.
Err GG, the latter would appear to be well catered for, don’t you think?
Logistics/Cost not OZ’s best suit. And you confirm it.
The Democrats have to sit the MI and FL delegates at the convention regardless who the nominee is, McCain would have a field day saying the Dems dont care about 2 important States! This is probably the only reason Hillary is still in the race.
Glen,
You are wise beyond tour blogs.
Cheers
Hillary,
You go girl!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cavFoyYJwPQ
Codger, you can talk gibberish all you like later on in the threads, but I at least want them to start well.
Rocky was a fantasy movie which hollywood made to let white people think they were still contenders, right?
I would say Hillary is more like Foreman, she’s been “hope-a-doped” by the greatest.
GG @ 5 – Bit late for training now, Cassius Clay Obama has already stung like a bee. So, Ms Rockyette’s percentage chance of the nom. at present in your honest personal considered estimation GG is …?
Tw & JV
Absolutely no prizes for being second.
3 Glen
The Democrats will seat Michigan and Florida at the convention.
Shortly after Obama wins in June and Hillary withdraws, he will announce that Michigan and Florida delegates will be seated.
Ron – You asked what I felt were Obama’s flaws
My personal gripe is that he is not an agnostic or atheist. As such going to church of any type, especially one with Wright as pastor does not reflect well on his overall judgement.
He also seemed extremely naive in regards to the Rezko transaction.
I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.
I’m also not sure that he will be able to put in action the solutions he so eloquently states.
Despite this, he is still my favoured candidate. Mainly because McCain is too old at 72 and a right wing Iraq supporter. And Hillary appears to be a pathological liar that is obsessed with her own ambition and surrounded by Rove (and I don’t mean McManus
) like supporters.
Mr Bowe @6 what you consider is gibberish is well & good however what I may consider is gibberish is entirely a different matter. If you wish to ban me go ahead it’s your blog but pleaese don’t insult my intelligence & that of your other posters by mesaruring what you call gibberish without following the thread.
In the case of davidoff, it was too liitle too late; with respect you missed the ‘point’ there and you are about to do it again. I do realises that you have a day job but you really ought to pay more attention to the ‘crap’ & ‘mission’ statements passed off here as ‘informed’ opinion. It clearly is not and most have a drum to bang. No problem with that, personally; but I detect a consistent misreading of that by the request for no gibberish by your good self; I don’t think this is deliberate on your part but perhaps a function of your busy lifestyle. At least I hope that is the explanation.
If you follow the thread Mr Bowe, there is no gibberish start or finish. It may not be be your lingo…but…
Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial’. It’s too much for Caddy & Co.!
Cheers.
& Continuity…
Happy to leave William.
Hi codger,
Here’s a somg dedicated to you and davidoff called “Strange Feelings”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5coYTZlUDK4
Dear Horse,(just love how you worked that out, there is hope) thanks for the song; now stalking…fill me in…
codger,
you first, tell us about your obsesseion to call me horse.
GG, too easy…let’s see how clever you really are…
PS got that nose bag worked out?
Hi Codger,
I go to bed now and your stalking crap is there for all to see tomorrow.
Love your work.
Put to bed & tucked in , thanks horse.
Only 217 days to go.
A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.
A PPP>/a> poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..
And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.
Interesting days.
A couple of polls on Pennsylvania out today.
A PPP poll released today places Obama ahead of Hillary by 2% (43/45), a 28 point improvement from an earlier PPP poll which was taken after the Wright drama unfolded but before Obama’s United Union speech. Yes – its not a typo – Obama ahead of Clinton in PA by 2 points..
And just to keep everyone here happy, a Quinnipiac University poll from the same day puts Clinton ahead of Obama by 9 points (50/41), a narrowing of 2% since their poll on the 18 March.
Interesting days.
Also of note – the RCP Average for Penn is now down to Clinton +6.
Can we please move on. It is now crystal clear that:
1. the fight will go on. nobody is going to quit or being pushed out.
2. the SDs will decide, regardless of who has more PDs or popular votes. so forget about the mathematics.
3. MI and FL delegates will be seated and votes counted.
So can we focus on, to quote my fav lady Nancy with the-egg-on-her-face: “WHO CAN WIN”. Who is more electable vs McCain. That is the only question that matters now for the SDs.
“These superdelegates have the right to vote their conscience and who they think would be the better president, or who can win, but they also then should get involved in the campaigns and make their power known there,” Pelosi said today on ABC News’ Good Morning America.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/pelosi_superdelegates_free_to.html
#22
The Finnigans
Umm, nah …
It looks as though nobody is going to be pushed out (overtly). However – I would not say that a Clinton exit is off the list of real possibilities. The Clinton campaign is in fatigue – funding is a long way behind Obama and money is not coming in at a rate necessary to keep pace, and Obama is forcing the Clinton campaign into a burn-rate they cannot sustain. Creditors are not being paid, even internal campaign staff are waiting for reimbursements on travel expenses (without a clear picture of when accounts will be settled). Bill is getting grumpy, and a nasty result in the Penn contest could do the trick.
I disagree completely with the assertion. More than half of the superdelegates have already delectared intentions. The remaining superdelegates will take into consideration the result of the contest in terms of pledged delegates, number of states, popular vote, loyalties to the electorate that put them where they are, their prospects taking into account trends, their respective political futures, and then – from that platform exercise their judgement. To say that SD decisions will not reflect pledged delegate results is overly simplistic.
Its not a given – but I’m assuming that they will be seated at the end of the day, but not with the same capacity as delegates from non-defaulting states.
G’day Gang, these three stories lunged at me from this morning’s mojo wire.
1/WALLINGFORD, Pa. — Sen. Barack Obama said Wednesday he would give Al Gore, a Nobel prize winner, a major role in an Obama administration to address the problem of global warming.(Huffy)
2/ “Now another sign offers possible clues to Senator Clinton’s Murdoch status: Rupert’s daughter Elisabeth is holding a fund-raiser at her London home this month for Barack Obama”…….. AP
3/ The Freakish Pulling Power of the The Kid: noted earlier by js.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf
————-
codger, do you speak Swahili, Caribbean patois, or pig Latin?
It’s been hard learning to live without Eddy and Davidoff, but I’ve soldiered on. Hope you’ve had a good night’s kip, this race is just starting to ramp up.
——————-
E.J. Dionne just told Fran Kelly that he reckons the SDs will move behind The Kid unless Brutusina creams him in PA.
Finn, you’re a big fan of astrologer Nancy I notice. Geez I love it when you talk scientific. Scorpio’s rising, son, have you ever thought of just saying no to Mrs. Clinton because she’ll only sting you badly in the end?
Hillary launches 3.00 AM version 2 – this time its the economy stupid.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/hillary_unveils_another_3_am_a.php
According to Mark Penn …
Or maybe its the campaign credit crunch?
Another superdelegate locks in with Obama.
According the AP, and consistent with Finnigans second rule, Melcher is one of eight Montana superdelegates who can vote for whoever they please at the party’s national convention this summer.
6
William Bowe
We are all trying to learn ‘gibberish’ William, and codger is teaching us. Some already are quite fluent, and do it almost effortlessly, but codger raises bar and embeds little cryptic stuff called ‘meaning’ into it, even if we have to admit it’s a bit tricky to see first off.
Keep trying, you’ll improve, we have! LOL
Speaking of popping in a bit of ‘meaning’, it’s interesting to see that Ben Bernanke dropped the ‘r’ word last night.
For a guy who kept telling us there was only a wee problem in sub-prime mortgages that wouldn’t be leaking into other markets, he really is behind the curve, eh?
So when Helicopter (I’ll drop money from the sky if necessary) Ben, tells us a little ‘recession’ is ‘probably’ happening, I’d suggest it’s time to head into the bunker with the tinned food and the ammo.
This guy has been so wrong so long it’s scary. (Remember, we were talking about a recession in the US late last year! Oh, and there were quite a few ’serious’ people arguing that it was a preposterous idea. Well, beware experts, i say! LOL)
Inside word is da boyz at the Fed are packing sh!t still, and realise they can’t keep pulling Bear stunts, and are very anxious about where the next shoe will drop.
And drop it will.
Anyway, that ‘r’ word was a cold spoon to the screen jocks who’d been covering their short postions like mad and feeling bouyant on a cushion of Fed liquidity. It probably will work for a day or so, and then they’ll get back to it until the next big insto hits the wall.
Maybe that’s why it’s called Wall Street?
This one just made me laugh …
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/obama-on-hardball-hillary_n_94737.html
And with scenes like that the PPP poll makes a lot of sense.
Hi Fellow Poll Bludgers
Latest Hillary Deathwatch is 9.5% and dropping.
http://www.slate.com/id/3944/cp/2162248/
Re-post from the fag end of the previous thread. Who’s up for it?
My own prediction is Hillary bowing out on April 23 at 1000 hrs.
By the way, this RCP graph of the Penn polls is a classic ‘pincer narrowing’:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
jv – In the spirit of the game, my wishful rather than realist scenario at this stage:
After a virtual tie in Pennsylvania really puts the pressure on, Hillary loses in Indiana and gets hammered by 20+ point North Carolina. She then dismounts with a fairly graceful speech on 8 May around midday after staying out of the press’ way on the seventh.
Btw, the wishful part refers to Hillary withdrawing. I’m happy to put those margin predictions on the record as my tips.
Morning Bludgers.
I see Wyoming Governor Dave Freudenthal has now endorsed Obama. Does anyone come out and endorse Hillary anymore???
And seeing as we’re in an issues – and primary – hiatus let’s talk healthcare. It’s the elephant in the room that Obama supporters don’t want to talk about. I suspect many, like me, who support Obama wish he would pinch Hillary’s healthcare plan. It’s better than his.
Any thoughts?
Pretty optimistic in my view Pancho
I’m hesitant to make any tips this early in the piece.
However, I suspect Hillary will win Pennsylvania easily. The latest Indiana polls are showing Hillary in front, and North Carolina will go to Obama easily but the polls aren’t indicating a 20+ lead.
31
JV, always happy to donate a good bottle of red – or white – to a worthy occasion.
As for Hillary pulling out – NUP! She has already factored in a loss in pledged delegates and popular vote. I think she could lose PA (which she won’t) and every other contest from here on in and STILL stay in the race.
She’s not expecting to win pledged dels. She’s hoping to woo SD’s. They are her one chance and until they pull the rug out she is sticking around regardless of the primaries.
Unfortunately for her, they are pulling the rug out….but very very slooooooooowly.
FG,
Which begs the question of “Why?”
If, as the Obamaphilliacs contend, the party heavyweights are so concerned about settling the nomination, why haven’t they done it?
1. They are not nearly as powerful and influential as they think.
2. They want to influence the platform once they get to Denver.
3. Obama is still a huge risk that none wants to be responsible for foisting on the wider electorate.
Asanque – NC predictions based on registration numbers here:
‘New numbers from the North Carolina Board of Elections show that, since the first of the year, more than 165,000 new voters have registered to participate in advance of the state’s May 6 primary.
…Forty-five percent of the new voters since January are registered as Democrats, with about 30% unaffiliated and 25% Republican. About a third are under 24 years old.’
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/01/848998.aspx
That under 24 years old number is big. Across contests so far this has been about 15%. Where the number has been higher, it has been where his machine has been chugging. So put the obvious organisation together with the about 50% of Dem primary voters are black, and the fact that Obama is already outspending her there, and I think NC will be a blowout.
GG- I believe the “horse” reference is to your initials GG, which is a nickname for the horsies (I’ve never been able to work out why).
Diogenes,
Obvious and probably correct.
Thanks.
GG – you’ve gotta look at the feet of the organisation as well as the head. The endorsements keep trickling. In addition to John Melcher (@26):
“CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Wyoming Gov. Dave Freudenthal, a former Clinton administration appointee, announced Wednesday that he will support Illinois Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.
…Freudenthal is the second Western governor and former Clinton appointee to endorse Obama in recent weeks. New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, former energy secretary and UN ambassador under Clinton, announced his support for Obama two weeks ago.
Former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, who was the top Democrat on the Sept. 11 Commission, also endorsed Obama on Wednesday.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080402/obama-endorsement/
I have no problem with how Dean and Pelosi are managing the process, and from the looks of the continual movement to Obama, they are still getting what they want.
36
GG, I don’t think there’s any great mystery about ‘why’. For a start, many SD’s have already hoisted their colours. Of those that are left the trickle is to Obama. As for the rest – well – politicians tend to be timorous souls afraid of making a decision till they are positiviely certain it’s a winner.
Which is why there’s a lot of sweaty palms among the less than timorous souls who backed Hillary early on.
Then came Super Tuesday.
SD score: 246-215. Margin 31 and falling. And each time this score falls, Obama’s absolute lead extends itself, as well as the percentage of what is left that Hillary needs.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project
An interesting article on the future of teh US Economy at The Economist http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10925548
This is looking at the likely extent of flow ons from the credit crisis into the “real” economy. Main point is that the disclosure of losses in the sub-prime crisis may be largely done, but the consequences certainly aren’t.
GG- There is a much better reason why the SDs haven’t decided yet. They are a bunch of gormless halfwits who would prefer to sit on a fence and get sliced in half rather than make a decision. I’m guessing most of them work as public service administrators by day.
And I’ve found out about GG and horses. It’s hypochoristic!
“We hear the term gee used in the city as well as the country today, in the form gee-gee, a hypochoristic (baby talk) term for a horse. Now that we have discussed the word gee, it is probably not difficult to see whence gee-gee came. The word used to direct a horse simply came to apply to the horse. Children in the early 19th century saw horses on a daily basis, in many cases. The youngest children, just learning to speak, would hear men shouting “Gee!” to their horses, and so they, very logically for children, applied that word to the animal. It became gee-gee after the pattern of other children’s words for animals, such as bow-wow for dog and kitty cat for cat, though it was still found as gee alone, as well. The earliest record of the gee-gee usage is 1869, and this one is from 1886: “To carry two heavy boys… on his back, pretending that he was a gee-gee.” It was certainly being used as early as the first part of the 19th century, however; it usually takes some time for slang or children’s words to find their way into written form.
So when a farmer calls haw and gee to his horses, he is etymologically saying hey and go!”
asanque at 10: “I do not think he will do well with the right wing, red neck, lowly educated and the christian fundamentalist vote which will cost him.”
It will cost him (BHO) only a little and only what was anticipated from the gitgo, asanque, as voters from these demos will support Johnny Bomb-Bomb in about the same proportions that African-Am. voters support Obi south of Mason Dixon. The groups that you mention are what The Imbecile refers to as “his base”, roughly 25 to 30% of the population who will go for the GOPper candidate even if he was Hannibal Lecter, rather than vote for a “jig”.
—————-
Chopper Ben makes drop to Hit-The-Wall Street Cargo Cultists. I like it Kirri Profundo!
Those bunkered buck mercs are likely to be supplied by Kellog Brown Root, the Halliburton subsidiary. As long as “Torture Dick” Cheney is still around, mention ought to be made that these people only do canned food. Talk of tinned food defies their comprehension. “Tinned food” is a “ Hunh?!?” inducer unless augmented with the gesticulate skills of Marcel Marceau. But, by golly, don’t they just lerve to chow down on their Freedom Fries.
Orright jv, since it was silly me who clod-hoppered like Betty Blockbuster all over the gender-bender thing, I’ll play. After a secret ballot my sleeper cell comrades have authorised me to donate a nice bottle of plonk. Winner decides grape variety.
Hillary will have the stones to make the announcement all by herself. After a MOE-tie in PA where she once led The Kid by 29 points and the certainty of a flogging in N.C. and an Indiannan loss, she’ll pull out (campaignus interruptus) at 0900 hours NY time on Anzac day after securing a cush sinecure for herself and Bill following an all night arm-twisting session with SDs and what’s euphemistically known as the Dems’ brains trust.
And where’s that bloody Commie Comitatus when you need him?!
What we have here in PA is a classic “Pincer Narrowing” and no one to talk us through it.
Pseph-Heads and Poll Scholars live for the possibility of a definitive Pincer Narrowing happening at least once in their observational lifetimes. This is the Halley’s Comet that inspires all the fear and all the loathing; the oohs, the aaahs; the popcorn passing and the online sizzle. Some vulgarians have even described it as “Money-Shot Psephology”, but having been raised as a gentleman and not a degenerate, I’m not sure I’m really ready to go there. But the world is changing fast. Bashfulness does not rest well with a tumultuous spirit. And as Uncle Duke said, “the fast lane is littered with some very expensive wrecks”.
What’s life without the possibility of radical change? Certainty is for lawyers and economists, corporate cog-persons, government mules and 9 to 5 rat-race stiffs.
Frorm here to November I’m gonna live like too much information is never enough!
And how wonderful it is to note that a certain Brisbane suburban poster has emerged from his identity crisis unscathed after a decent night’s sleep.
#31
jaundiced view
Here is one scenario:
1. It will matter too much what the results of Pennsylvania will be providing she carries the state. If is by a very small margin she will attribute this to being outspent, effectively casting it as a victory by overcoming an impossible financial advantage held by her opponent – proving her electability in the general.
2. Once Pennsylvania is out of the way, the news cycle will be somewhat easier – two weeks later we have Guam, Indiana and North Carolina (and my impression is the Obama will take all of these states), a week later we have West Virginia and a Clinton win. Hillary is likely to promote this as a comeback kid moment, leading the narrative for the following week which take us into Kentucky and Oregon. Clinton takes Kentucky with a media spin promoting the resurrection while Obama takes Oregon. The last two weeks kick-in and media attention goes ballistic with coverage on every waking moment of every undeclared superdelegate and Puerto Rico gets overrun with campaign personal and the media and Hillary Clinton takes the contest and asserts not only a resurrection but a winning streak.
3. By staying in the race the onus is on the DNC and Obama campaign to provide an exit that Hillary Clinton supporters will feel is fair and just (e.g. a cabinet position, or something like Governor of NY, whatever). Things is that the longer she hangs in the more more collateral she has when negotiating the exit – and negotiations (if she stays in race) could include her actions during the convention (i.e. she gets to put the DNC between and rock and a hard place). If that process start to unwind, she can fall-back to the scenario of just appearing to do the right thing. In addition there is the long short that Obama’s campaign will go into meltdown sometime before the convention and she’ll be there to steps up to save the day.
4. The dust settles in Denver and Obama is nominated. Disney, Viacom, TimeWarner, News Corp, Bertelsmann AG, and General Electric make a series of donations Clinton Library in appreciation for the best news story in modern American history.
But if she looses Pennsylvania – then April 23, 10:00AM sounds about right.
Apologies to the people of Montana and South Dakota – should have mentioned these two states in the above rundown – Montana and South Dakota contest are two weeks after Kentucky and one week before Puerto Rico.
Codger #11
“Which leads me to conclude that you’ve had a serious whinge from. Let me guess! I don’t think your intervention is ‘editorial”
The only two people EVER call Codgers blogs “gibberish” are me and now William.
Using Codger ‘logic’ then either
William & I are the same people , or
William & I think have similar intellect , or
I can not handle ‘barbs’ & would secretly complain and that William would listen.
which was what Codger concluded and said above. This is a direct & unqualified dispicable allegation to William’s integrity.
Whilst bloggers( including I) would not insult William by defending him in detail as he will do that if he wishs , but it is still blogger’s responsibility to at least blog to say such an unqualified smear allegation is unacceptable on this site & should be withdrawn. I do so Codger.
Before I fall off this ‘night in shining armour’ , I would hope Codgers fellow Obama supporters may give some ‘fair go’ and ‘ acceptable standards’ thought & consider at least making a statement of disapproval at the minimum ???
Ferny G – Another bottle donated to the cause – good man, and I say that last thing with authority. But don’t forget your prediction. Date & time
EC – Another bottle donated, and another good man. Your time for HRC to capitulate @ 0900 on 25 April officially noted.
So, that’s 3 bottles of good plonk for the winner so far.
Others?
Junior s @ 46 – You’re not predicting the same time as me though, are you? Or is it the convention?
Date, time and candidate required.
And as to your point 2 junior s – possibly, if Pennsylvania is better for Hillary than 6 or 7 points, because the US MSM is always hungry for another unlikely episode, another phoenix rising from the ashes, another resurrection. But if it is close in Penn then they may prefer other angles that sell papers – the ‘how the mighty are fallen, let’s pick at the carcass’, along with the ‘wow, look at the new kid go’ angles.
Deadline for all entries next Monday night (7th) at 9:00pm?
Ron
Should we get Obama to denounce or reject Codger’s comments?
Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?
Jeezus – sounds like a full time job.
You can be the hall monitor Ron.
And when we spot an evil doer and need the hall monitor we can use the special hall monitor emergency call….
DA DO RON RON RON
DA DO RON RON
45
Yes EC, I’m feeling my old self again
….which is how I verified that I am indeed a male.
49 – jv
Put me down for Hillary to withdraw shortly after Puerto Rico after the remaining superdelegates finally pull the plug.
r/Ron – Your date, time and candidate? Are you a player?
GG?
codger -easy, easy – WB was just having a gentle lend. I personally find your ‘gibberish’ quite edifying compared to some other alleged non-gibberish we read here (self included at times) – yours is more like ‘blogging doggerel’ than gibberish.
See what I mean (From Wiki):
“Some poets, however, make a virtue of writing what appears to be doggerel but is actually clever and entertaining despite its apparent technical faults. Such authors include: Ogden Nash; Pam Ayres”
Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’, please make sure it is also ‘clever and entertaining’ will you?
Asanque @ 54 – will do – do you want to set your date and time now or wait a day or two?
In my reading of Pelosi’s latest comments, she is clearly laying down a challenge to the remaining Supers.In a way, she is calling their bluff.
She says they have a right to vote for whoever they want but they should get out and campaign for who they support.
It would take remarkable courage(not in abundant supply) or political stupidity(not in abundant supply) for any Super to openly support Clinton from here on in.
Pelosi is openly saying, pick a candidate and start working NOW. Don’t just sit on your smug asses and watch our chances diminish.
jv @ 55,
A serious question begs a considered response.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xl5rNxOIUbc
GG @ 58 haha. Is that on the 12th of never at 12, Barack to concede?
Not a player then eh? 3 nice bottles could be yours …
Apparantly Bill’s bloodpressure is rising…
“You know when the Clinton Campaign is nearing defeat. It is the beginning of the end when Slick goes into a tirade with Democrat Party delegates no less:
The Bill Clinton who met privately with California’s superdelegates at last weekend’s state convention was a far cry from the congenial former president who afterward publicly urged fellow Democrats to “chill out” over the race between his wife, Hillary Rodham Clinton, and Barack Obama.
In fact, before his speech Clinton had one of his famous meltdowns Sunday, blasting away at former presidential contender Bill Richardson for having endorsed Obama, the media and the entire nomination process.
“It was one of the worst political meetings I have ever attended,” one superdelegate said.
According to those at the meeting, Clinton – who flew in from Chicago with bags under his eyes – was classic old Bill at first, charming and making small talk with the 15 or so delegates who gathered in a room behind the convention stage.
But as the group moved together for the perfunctory photo, Rachel Binah, a former Richardson delegate who now supports Hillary Clinton, told Bill how “sorry” she was to have heard former Clinton campaign manager James Carville call Richardson a “Judas” for backing Obama.
It was as if someone pulled the pin from a grenade.
“Five times to my face (Richardson) said that he would never do that,” a red-faced, finger-pointing Clinton erupted.
The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media’s unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.
“It was very, very intense,” said one attendee. “Not at all like the Bill of earlier campaigns.”
And what did he say to the waiting audience? We need to chill out…..
What a piece of work! ”
http://stuckon-stupid.com/2008/04/02/dear-hillary-bad-news-its-over/
Latest ad on PA telly.
“Hillary For President
“Ringing”
TV :30
Announcer: It’s 3 am, and your children are safe and asleep.
(Oh-oh, here we go again)
But there’s a phone ringing in the White House and this time the crisis is economic.
(probably a good idea to give the Commander-In-Chief thing a rest after the Bosnian beat-up)
Home foreclosures mounting, markets teetering.
(Thank you for holding, we appreciate your call. The Fed are busy bailing out Merrill Lynch but our first available operator will be with you momentarily)
John McCain just said the government shouldn’t take any real action on the housing crisis, he’d let the phone keep ringing.
(What a prick! Actually Johnny takes his hearing aid out before hitting the sack and he’s got a platoon of flacks and hacks to handle incoming)
Hillary Clinton has a plan to protect our homes, create jobs.
(Yeah, right. Genesis Employment.)
It’s 3 am, time for a president who’s ready.
(That’s why by brunch time she looks like a heavy debtor demanding an overdraft extension at The Allergan-Botox Bank).
Hillary Clinton: I’m Hillary Clinton and I approve this message.”
(Meanwhile the SDs just keep falling into The Kid’s camp)
Any discussion about his oiliness.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/129895
The only calls Hillary will be getting about a financial crisis at 3 am are from her campaign’s creditors threatening to send in the debt collectors.
And what is Hillary’s plan. Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.
PS I’ll donate a bottle of Rockford’s Basket Press 1994 to the pool if Billary quits before June 3, the date of the final primary.
Diogenes -[Bring back Greenspan and Rubin who caused to problem. No wonder no-one is listening to her anymore.]
Yes, the ad is to try to bolster her non-existent credentials on the economy.
Next, she will recount her ‘memory’ of how she passed Alan Greenspan in a white house corridor in September 1997 and warned him of a market crash that would occur on 21 October due to problems in Asia, and how the impact of the mini-crash on the US economy was much less as a result of her intervention.
Crikey! That’s a top drop Diogenes – right off the top shelf. I’ve tried it once – a more recent vintage – and it was superb. A fine contribution.
Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil didctaor and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC
Wed April 2: How American Democracy drives your buck further.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF
More on the conservative case for Obama:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/philip-giraldi/obama-the-conservative-ch_b_94761.html
‘Huffington Post progressives should look to the conversation that is going on among traditional conservatives if they are seriously interested in nominating a candidate who would be both electable and good for the country. As a conservative, it is frankly incomprehensible to me that anyone would want to go back to the sleaze, constant political triangulation, sense of aggrieved entitlement, and low-life characters like Sandy Berger that characterized the Clinton White House.
…Other conservatives have observed that Obama might also seriously address the hemorrhaging of America’s manufacturing base that has taken place under the auspices of President George W. Bush, a trend that would undoubtedly continue under either McCain or Clinton, both of whom are either ambivalent about or committed to globalism and free trade. America must put its own house in order first and it is time to challenge many of the economic and social assumptions that have driven policy over the past 15 years.
In short, Obama for president is beginning to look pretty good to many conservatives and that means that a Barack Obama administration might actually bridge the gap between right and left, finally bringing together American citizens who are intent on righting the foundering ship of state rather than preserving the status quo. Clinton and McCain represent little more than two nightmarish visions of an out-of-touch political reality that has manifestly failed and should be rejected.’
Geez Diog, I bow at your feet. How did you get hold of a Basket Press 94?? And why would you give it away???? Here’s what Halliday has to say:
“Rockford can only be described as an icon, no matter how over-used that word may be. It has a devoted band of customers who buy most of the wine through the cellar door or mail order (Rocky O’Callaghan’s entrancing annual newsletter is like no other.) Some wine is sold through restaurants, and there are two retailers in Sydney, and 1 each in Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth. Whether they will have the Basket Press Shiraz available is another matter; it is as scarce as Henschke Hill of Grace (and less expensive).”
Almost makes me want to take a stab at the date and time the stake will be administered.
Almost
How are Rocky and Bullwinkle today?
Sounds like the Big Bull is getting a bit stressed- maybe he should call Monica for some stress relief. In the meantime I’m going to bet Hillary is declared dead after the Pennsylvania poll within 48 hours. But she won’t go without a fight, so she won’t declare, she’ll be pushed.
If Obama is getting a lead in Penn. this far out it would be far better for her to jump now, but that would take integrity and well, that just ain’t gonna happen.
Apparently Tropical Cyclone Pancho is currently active off the WA Coast – any connection to the HUFFINGton post article at 66?
My lend wasn’t that gentle really, JV. I really don’t think Codger’s brand of “doggerel” (to put the kindest possible spin of it) is appropriate for a site such as this. In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.
67 Ferny
I bought two dozen about ten years ago and I’ve gone off wine since then so I’m happy do donate them to a good cause.
And Big Bill is losing it completely. He repeatedly says Billary is only one per cent behind. It’s 3.0% using RCP.
It’s the Hunting of the Snark again.
” I have said it thrice:
What I tell you three times is true.”
Ferny G @ 67 – It’s a glorious drop to contemplate isn’t it? But, you won’t take a stab on the concession date and time? I hear you’ve got the balls, so – c’mon! Give it a go.
Jen @ 68- Good one Jen – a commitment to after Penn. You must have the balls too! This gender business is confusing.
After Penn is my prediction too – but pick the specific date and time of day so you can win Diog’s basket press gem and two others. Since Diogenes threw that label in I’ve upgraded my bottle so as not to appear as a cardboard handbag wino!
Wed April 2: Why Gore was smart to not run.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aj6WoNQU8oL2.rQgySl.4mcDwLAF
Wed.April 2: Over five years ago The Imbecile assured The World that oil would be $20 a barrel after god’s gift of freedom had been bestowed upon Iraq and the evil dictator and his Al Kaeda buddies were given the flick along with all the WMDs and human shredding machines (actually I think the last bit of bs was the former El Rodente).
Que pasa El Presidente Arbusto?
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=Am1HMoZd_lpo4BlvLW6qD.ZL6ysC
Wed April 2: How Democracy drives your buck further.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AiMvoxfQUfVZiYtej2050g7X.sgF
Wed. April 2: Kickin’ back in Dogpatch…… At Home with the Arkansas Travellers.
NB pooch on porch, Lil Abner corn pipe, hanging fly paper, wringer washing machine, moonshine in corner and begging note on front door.
.http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AkM.pwMeutmEIFKJpRuQPi1X_b4F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li‘l_Abner
On song like here, Danziger is one of the most vicious of contemporary Sep cartoonists. The voters that Hillary is courting will bust a gut when this cartoon hits the Appalachian grapevine, especially in PA.
——————————–
Rocky and Bullwinkle is good, jen, delightfully squirrilist and moosist. Would you also buy Boris and Natasha?
More or less final results from Zimbabwe House of Assembly election.
MDC Tsvangirai leads with 99 seats; Zanu PF has 97 seats; MDC Mutambara has 10 seats; and Jonathan Moyo (Independent) has his one seat. The split in the MDC cost the opposition about 10 seats given the first past the post voting system. Still a fantastic result given the repression, bribery and no doubt vote fiddling employed by Mugabe’s government.
No official figures for presidential votes yet but clear that Mugabe is well behind the combined opposition vote. Not certain that Tsvangirai will get the 51% needed for first round win but run-off would seem certain to elect him barring even more repression or military intervention.
Also waiting to see Senate (upper house figures). Apparently Sekai Holland has won a Senate seat. Independence ambassador, survivor and hero.
http://www.sokwanele.com is a good source of figures.
Opps, the full stop before the Danziger link rendered it inoperable. Take 2.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AkM.pwMeutmEIFKJpRuQPi1X_b4F
jv – I said within 48 hrs of the Penn election. 10 am EST.
My donation – a bottle of Sorrenberg Sauv Blanc.( If there’s any left with my late night PB sessions , glass in hand.)
BTW what are the logistics of the winner getting the stuff? Do we go via Bilbo?
Or perhaps we could drop all donations off at the PB pool, as we will be having a special practice session for the valedictory performance (special guest appearance by Obama walking on water) whilst the PB Synchronised Swimming Squad perform aquabatics the like that have never been seen.
William @ 70 -[In future I will require that his contributions be grammatical, comprehensible, relevant to politics, and of conceivable interest to more than one other person.]
Well, I guess Ogden Nash and even Pam Ayres (shudder) would measure up to those standards, so there can’t really be any complaint.
I would hope though that codger can match Ogden’s:
“Just Keep Quiet and Nobody Will Notice”
“…
Because you are very rude if you let them emerge from an argument victorious,
And when they say something of theirs is awful, it is your duty to convince them politely that it is magnificent and glorious,
And what particularly bores me with them,
Is that half the time you have to politely contradict them when you rudely agree with them, …”
wakefield –
Mark Penn is Boris and I’m still not sure about Natasha. Could be Nanacy Pelosi as she seems to have an agenda to get Hillary. Any suggestions welcome. First prize- nothing.
Jen – Got your time then – 24 April @ 1000 hrs. Delivery? We’ll work something out -post it or whatever. I think there’s some mechanism for outside parallel contact via email here for addresses – not sure about that exactly. You can get wine post packs at the PO I think.
Although, Diogenes’ bottle will need to be hand delivered by a wing-ed virgin in a muslin smock.
Otherwse, yeah, a pool party, scuba – drinking wine sitting on the bottom of the pool after synchronicity training.
72
JV, I’m almost forced to offer one of my magnums of Basedow Semillon 99 – one of Australia’s truly great semillons.
As for a date and time: If anyone drops out it will be Hillary, but she won’t go after PA. Dean has said he wants the contest resolved by 1 July, but he doesn’t have the gravitas to force the issue. He will be ignored. Any end to this race will happen for other reasons than Dean’s insipid involvement.
So I don’t think Diog’s fine wine is really on the table because it will NOT be resolved by 3 June. The real question is ‘when will the remaining SD’s make a move?’ My guess is they won’t (other than the current trickle) till after the primaries are over. So, I’m hoping that they will move in the fortnight following June 3 – but that’s just my wishful thinking.
So, for me – it’s Hillary to concede – possibly wearing a Hannibal Lecter-type mask – sometime on or about June 21 at 3pm.
But for the sake of winning Diog’s wonderful wine, I’m tempted to have a stab at Hillary conceding around 9:45pm following the return of the results of the last primaries on 3 June.
Now Diog….about those remaining Basket Press bottles that are simply gathering dust at your place……care to sell them to a serious appreciator of great Aussie reds?
For archivists, the Danziger cartoon at 75 date was April 2.
Wed April 2: Dropoffolics Anonymous.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AordIep70GBpjaMbxrKav.jV.i8C
Wed April 2: Growler at 62, you wanted to talk oil. Check out the grunter.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ApX8diuqfelQrH9CXwo.PQZN_b4F
Wed April 2: Tommy gets a guernsey today on the strength of Condi’s 3 dial shots.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AuyL1S814g6H6LtlKowKcV9T_b4F
56 – jv
Hillary to step down 10 June 2008 at 2:00 p.m.
(not voluntarily – although her speech willl highlight all her achievements)
asanque -
it will be a long one then what with her bringing peace to Ireland, and stopping the war in the Balkans, and single handedly catching a nuclear missile from the top of the Empire State Building (or was that King Kong?), inventing penicillin and all… how will we get by without her???
No doubt about it- PBers are having an :
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pancho-packed-powerful-punch/2008/04/02/1206851013777.html
impact.
Are there no beer drinkers on PB?
Hillary to concede 7th May Midday….after PA,IN and NC and it is clear(even to her) she can’t win the popular vote.
Shortly after MI and FL told delegates will be seated at convention.
Dems unite and beat George Bush’s and Bomb-Bomb’s Party quite easily at the election.
It is impossible to manufacture spontaneous cool and quick wittedness. You either got it or you ain’t. Obi has it in oodles. Tweety’s response demonstrates how good The Kid is at this game.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/obama-jokes-about-the-com_n_94755.html
REPLY TO #48 Ron :
#51 Ferny Grover
“Ron, we have a responsibility to censure every unqualified smear now?
Jeezus – sounds like a full time job. You can be the hall monitor Ron.”
# 50 Yo ho ho April
Ron “Should we get Obama to denounce or reject Codger’s comments?”
#55 J/V
“Codger…WB was just having a gentle lend.”..
“Note for r/Ron on this point – If you are, you know, by chance ever posting stuff with ‘apparent technical faults’,…”
Ron says:
My simple equest to bloggers unambiguously referred to the Moderator only & to respect the Institution, the Moderator’s integrity. I gave a reminder of it , but
if one doesn’t then understand this ’standard’ it sure cann’t be taught.
Yet the word ‘Omamabot’ was offensive. Perhaps bloggers may have a further
2nd thought & on not worry about breaking ranks , and if not I will NOT reblog and will move on.
will not re blog the subject and move on
I know Harry – a bloody lot of chardonnay sipping, latte drinking…
Refocussing.
More Clinton lies:
“New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on Wednesday sharply disputed Bill Clinton’s reported claim that Richardson promised to endorse Hillary Clinton’s bid for the White House.
“I never did,” Richardson said. “I never saw [President Clinton] five times. I saw him when he watched the Super Bowl with me. We made it very clear to him that he shouldn’t expect an endorsement after that meeting.”
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/02/richardson-i-never-promised-clintons/
They say it takes one to know one, so maybe once Miranda Devine in today’s SMH is spot on; Hillary is losing because she’s a lying b!tch who’ll do anything and say anything to aggrandise herself.
Wow, this is almost a first, I totally agree with Miranda Devine! Should I buy a lottery ticket or something?
91
Pancho
It’s hard not to get the feeling that Hillary is turning into the Imelda of US politics, but instead of a collection of shoes, it’s a collection of mistruths, and misspokes and lots of unsavoury things tucked away.
Sad.
87
Beer, Harry?? Beer???? When there’s an abundance of good Aussie wine about?? I mean, would you grab a burger when the food of the gods (well, Bacchus is a god) is laid out before you???
We are a discerning lot here on PB after all.
Has everyone seen this?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chip-collis/top-10-myths-keeping-hill_b_94207.html
Can i get a review from a Clinton person? I mean, i agree with him. I want someone who doesn’t to tell me why he’s wrong. Perspective and all that.
Yo ho ho – good article. Mean challenge to throw out though. In the interests of balance and devils advocacy, can I offer, in no particular order, a response to all ten debunked myths? Ahem…JEREMIAH WRIGHT! Oh, and of course ‘yeah, well it doesn’t matter that she can’t win when it counts, because don’t you see she is the ONLY ONE WHO CAN WIN WHEN IT COUNTS!’
Yo Ho Ho-
do you think the Clinton people may have been abducted by aliens? There’s been a lot of it aound here lately.
To be honest Jen, I am slightly concerned.
There’s a few of us that have raised the problem – I know Jaundiced vVew is another worried PB.
Can’t think of any other reason why the Hillary supporters would go quiet in the face of so much evidence that she should stand down and let Obama get on with beating McCain.
Wouldn’t be sour-grapes sulking now, would it.
There is another explanation Jen. Hillary has not been abducted by aliens – she IS an alien! You will recall that KR was discerning enough to pick this up some weeks ago.
And in her own small alien world, Hillary can still win this – and in fact is the ONLY one who can win this.
Good point Ferny. Although another explanation for her unshakeable belief that she can win despite the inceasingly obvious undeniable fact that she can’t, could also be that she is psychotic. Or she smokes too much pot.
Jen – Neverunderestimate the power of denial.
Well Jen it’s getting to the point where everyone except the Clintons can see the writing on the wall. It seems like she just wont give up because she thinks it should be hers (and thought until this year that it would be hers).
101
Jen, I’m told Bill likes her to smoke cigars, but that’s a story for the deviancy blog.
To be serious, Hillary still thinks the SD’s will save her. She has already factored in losses in the PD count and the popular vote. So individual primary losses won’t stop her. She is calulating on the fact that neither can win without the SD’s and she still believes the Party faithful will carry her upon their shoulders to the nomination.
Which is why Bill’s tantrum in front of a bunch of SD’s yesterday was so monumentally mental. He lost her a few more SD endorsements guaranteed.
Someone pass him a cigar to play with.
Ferny
i actually think it’s all about the popular vote. Even the Clintons know that her only chance of getting those necessary SD’s is by winning the popular vote.
if she wins Penn by 12-15, Indiana by 10 and NCar by 5-10 then she can still make the pop vote argument to the Supers.
if one of those 3 things doesn’t happen(which is obvious to all but the Clintons) then she is toast…officially.
who knows….even then she may go a nuclear option on Obama with who knows what. They really are a low pair.
105
Harry, you may be right but it’s hard to believe that even Bill and Hill can’t see that the popular vote is realistically out of reach. They may think it’s still close enough to mount an argument re capacity to win big states, etc.
But in the end all her cards really are in the SD basket….and they are slipping away…..one by one. It’s up to them to end the agony.
Another echo of Australia – McCain has shot Clinton’s ad right back at her with changes: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/hillary-clintons-new-3am_n_94709.html
To successfully manufacture the consent of the elctorate, it is necessary for a presidential candidate to be able to read an “idiot board” and speak coherently. McCain can do neither convincingly; under pressure he’s worse. Joey “The Rat” lieberman can’t be permanently on stand-behind ever ready to whisper into McAngry’s hearing-aid each time the bellicose old bastard screws up.
No matter what damage is done to the Dems in their current internicene battles, when Obi gets the official nod he will make mince-meat of the decrepid warmonger, Angry McCuefluff.
I do believe the Seps use the expression: “whup his butt”.
One of Obi’s tasks from May to November will be to serially fillet The Imbecile Mk.2 in a manner that doesn’t arouse sympathy.
In one-on-one live debate, Illinois Obi v Beltway Johnny Bomb-Bomb is a serious mis-match. This is one of the reasons that Obi has been a short priced favourite with the bookies since the field has narrowed from last year’s field.
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/20080401_mccains_prompter_problem/
Alan Kohler today:
One big question remaining is whether the mortgage backed securities (MBSs) that were acquired at inflated prices by financiers during the US credit bubble of 2002-2007 can been be held and recapitalised or sold without a collapse of the financial system, or whether the US and European taxpayers will have to buy them.
The Bear Stearns bail out was a “toe in the water” of the latter: the Fed bought $29 billion worth of that firm’s worst MBS assets, which allowed the successors of Mr Morgan to feel comfortable about buying the equity of the business.
But the risks, as Mr Bernanke says, are to the downside, and might have more to do with other acronyms than MBSs: specifically CDSs – that is, the betting tickets called credit default swaps – of which there are about US$45 trillion in the system, six times the size of the mortgage market and more than twice the size of the New York Stock Exchange.
There might be an appetite and capacity for more Government purchases of MBSs, but CDSs? Those babies are on their own.
…so Chopper Ben’s got some nervous times ahead with his toe in the water, hoping there aren’t any crocodiles looming close by.
Enemy Combatant
Hillary conceded moments before the Michigan and Florida superdelegates are seated (i.e. somewhere between August 25 and August 28).
Hitchens goes the kitchen sink on Bill to Billary’s propaganda network. He’s only been impeached once for perjury and barred from practicing law in one state. He seems to be bearing a grudge.
Hitchens Goes Off On Clintons, Calls Bill Hill’s “Moral Tutor, The Man Who Taught Her How To Lie”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/02/hitchens-goes-off-on-clin_n_94655.html
Fair enough, js. Put an exact date and time on it, pledge your bottle of quality plonk, get acknowledgement fom co-ordinator, jv, and you’re in like Flynn.
Bludgers, if Obi doesn’t get whacked before E-day, is anybody in S.E. Qld ( or anywhere really) interested in a get-together and some “live-blogging” in a Bris-Vegas pub or suchlike to view the results on the first Sep Tuesday of November, which will be Wednesday A.M. Oz time? Expressions of interest only at this stage to see if we’ve got critical mass. Went to something similar with some of the LP folk (not election related) about a year ago in The Valley and it was a lot of fun. William is in Perth which is tyrannically distant (maybe he could deduct his expenses by attending a “Psephology Conference” [nudge, wink], but who knows maybe we can lure that cheeky furry critter away from his Brissy abode in the daylight hours.
Please note, this would be a social occasion, network marketers will be executed on the spot.
We’re a weird mob but we Bludgers have definitely got something going on here, so fwiw, any possibles at this juncture?
111
Diogenes
Gotta say it Dio, I love Hitch’s moral indignation when it’s in full voice, and the way he punctures the mock respect and decorum that accrues to these old players. (He fully loathes Kissinger, and would loudly say so on any TV show that would let him).
It’s one side of him I find immensely appealing: Take physic pomp…
Count this marsupial in EC!
What a crack up:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/
..the first clip, Monsters of Nostalgia.
Brilliant, McCain is walking backwards to history, on his bus.
jv,
Put me down for Hillary to concede on 24 April, 1400 hours (New York time which I assume is what we all mean by “US time”).
Haven’t yet got around to perusing the Dyno “cellar” but there’ll be a half-decent red heading for the PB Wine Club (and thence to the winner) from me.
24 April Dyno??? That’s awfully soon. Why do you think PA will finish her?
I’m sticking my neck and predicting she’ll lose PA. And that will finish her.
It’s a gamble, I admit.
There’s just something about her campaign now, the smell of death if you want to put it that way. Even the NYT is (intermittently) showing signs of ambivalence about her.
Well Dyno…any win by less than double digits will be interpreted by many as a loss for Hillary.
But I think she’ll keep going….and going….till the SDs kill her.
Then they’ll make a movie about it – “Kill Hill”
FG,
I thought the same till Richardson. But not now – the SDs are not going to save her.
I reckon there’ll be a good offer awaiting her (NY Governor, Ambassador to London, Head of World Bank, whatever) and that will be enough to get her out of the race.
But if I’m wrong, it would hardly be the first time …
Dyno, I agree that the SDs won’t save her. It’s just that Hillary hasn’t realised it yet.
Well, whatever happens, it’s going to be fun to watch!
I wonder if the party organisations will be able to overcome the usual American inertia about anything to do with the States and actually come up with a half-decent primary system by 2012?
Dyno, as GeeGee said last night, no second place. Even the shamrock sista is trying to contextualise her support for Clinton into an Obama Boot Camp.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/02/opinion/02dowd.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
A very funny piece from Maureen Dowd where she reckons that Hill is popping Barack’s cherry. Not sure how that fits with the other Clinton meme about Obama being an old-fashioned bare knuckle pollie from Chicago but there you go, Clintonaut logic has always puzzled me.
Dowd is pretty cynical about everything. And always funny.
The 2-3 minutes it takes to read her column is always time well spent.
Another freaking lie or fantasy!! You decide.
I’ve said it before “This woman is a dangerous fantasist who cannot distinguish reality from fantasy in her sick twisted mind!”
“During a junior high school soccer game” on a cold day, Hillary claimed “a goalee told her ‘I wish people like you would freeze.’” Stunned, the future first lady asked how she could feel that way when she did not even know her. “I don’t have to know you,” the goalee shot back, “to know I hate you.”
Hillary’s high school didn’t even have a girl’s soccer team!!
Hillary’s Soccer Fantasy
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,342889,00.html
Deal…but I think we should use a boat
btw… I have a boat
Dio @ 127,
Ouch.
A little light reading, anyone?
http://www.crisispapers.org/features/articles.htm
Actually, I think the imaginary goalee (!) was right on the money.
“I don’t have to know you,” the goalee shot back, “to know I hate you.”
Diogenes @ 127 – Hillary seems to have lived someone else’s life until very recently.
I’ve come to the view that most American politicians are certifiably insane. But then so are a majority of those that vote for them. How else could Bush have been reelected!
ooops, he miss-spoke:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/01/cnn-catches-mccain-making-contradictory-statements-about-sadr/
We’ll see about the boat, Classified. Possum’s in. So far we have 3 possibles for E-day in Brissy. What about ye Ferny G?
IS John McCain really the best candidate the Republicans can come up with?
#119, Dyno said:
A measurable sign of this is the blog topic frequency and comment count of the respective candidates. Here is a quick comparison between midnight last night (East Coast) and now.
Clinton: 7 topics 590 comments.
Obama: 14 topics 6,678 comments.
In terms of demonstrated enthusiasm, the Obama Campaign seems to be running ahead of the Clinton Campaign by more than an order of magnitude.
“IS John McCain really the best candidate the Republicans can come up with?”
Kina, ‘fraid so. The cupboard is bare. And Johnny Bomb-Bomb is a Beltway Boy to his jack-boot straps. One on one Obi will have him for breakfast.
Dio, pretty soon she’ll be campaigning with her new bestest special friend. A sock-puppet she’s named Mr. 3 A.M. who’s going to handle all her late night calls.
js at 136: That’s sigificant when you’re flogging a product, sorry, candidate. Is the NYT your source?
Jimmy Carter goes to Nigeria. Releases big cat from bag.
http://www.thisdayonline.com/nview.php?id=107611&printer_friendly=1
#137
Enemy Combatant
Nope – davidoff is the source.
This will play well in Pennsylvania:
“The campaign says they will release the documents sometime before April 15. Without them, many questions remain about how the Clintons made tens of millions of dollars — and whether they used arcane tax loopholes available to the super-rich, an expert says. A Clinton campaign spokesman says the couple has paid all U.S. taxes at ordinary income tax rates.
An independent review by ABC News has found that since leaving the White House seven years ago, the senator and her former president husband have made well over $50 million, much of it from paid speeches made by Bill Clinton.”
http://abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4581608&page=1
Pelosi’s clarification:
‘Speaking at a press conference Thursday morning to preview the Democratic message ahead of the visit from Gen. David Petraeus, the House Speaker reiterated her belief that “it would do great harm to the Democratic Party if it was perceived that the superdelegates overturn the will of the people.”
“That is consistent with a delegate voting his or her conscience,” Pelosi added.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/pelosi-sticks-to-her-guns_n_94902.html
138 – js
Whilst I don’t in any way miss ESJ. Davidoff’s contributions and analysis to this blog are sorely missed.
Since Hillary’s last hope is superdelegates. Here is some superdelegate maths:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html
And on the Deathwatch Hillary’s chances have plummetted to 9%
http://www.slate.com/id/2188151/
I found this article interesting.
Its pro-Hillary maths on the popular vote and I find it more credible then Barone.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html
Of course his analysis relies on a massive number of Puerto Ricans voting for Hillary, but then again, its practically impossible for Clinton otherwise.
It’s well argued asanque but is based on an optimistic set of outcomes that would require a reversal of recent trends.
I think your earlier ’superdelgate maths’ article is more compelling.
Latest electoral-vote has Obama making some inroads, even though he is so much less electable than Hillary.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr03.html
asanque – those county maps are great, and his appalacian map really interesting. How people make those sort of connections I’ll never know, but it seems to work.
Where this scenario runs into problems in my mind is with its assumption of a big Pennsylvania win to basically carry the popular vote argument being made. The says:
‘As for the predicted results, I will go ahead and use the estimate from this excellent blog at MyDD. I think it is an excellent analysis. I happen to think that it is a little bit generous to Obama in its classifications. Consider that in the RCP average, he has been flatlined at around 36% for almost a month now. Indeed, he has never been above 43% of the vote here in any poll. Hillary’s numbers have bounced around significantly.’
The assumption made is that Obama is not, or will not be campaigning here. As we have seen in the past few days, his aggressive campaigning, both in a retail sense and through a flooding of the ad market, has closed the polling gaps to under 5 points on average. The writer’s conclusion, that ‘Regardless, let’s assume 80% turnout, with a 16-point Hillary win, and let’s move on’ is far too optimistic, given that today Hillary’s people have begun killing expectations of a sizable win, putting out press basically claiming that a win’s a a win. Without a huge win here it’s all over (assuming that it isn’t already).
Since Richardson, the SD count to Obama has been 8 to 0. What SD in their right mind would come out and endorse Billary before PA? None. Its only going to get worse for her over the next 3 weeks.
Looks like Jimmy Carter is going to back Obama – so notch up another SD:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/carter-supports-obama-or-so-it-seems/
But wait there’s more….
“On the face of it, New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine’s statement this morning on CNBC that he reserves the right to defect if Clinton loses the popular vote sounds more inside baseball than headline news. But consider these factors: Corzine endorsed Clinton more than a year ago as part of Clinton’s initial sweep of superdelegates. (Yesterday was the anniversary of that announcement.) A defection by Corzine would mean the foundation is crumbling. Also, Clinton won the New Jersey primary by 11 points on Feb. 5. Jersey is in her backyard, and the fact that the governor would consider siding with the popular vote over the overwhelming opinion of his constituents won’t go overlooked by other superdelegates from states she won.” (from today’s Hillary Deathwatch)
145
“Latest electoral-vote has Obama making some inroads, even though he is so much less electable than Hillary.”
So much less electable – that would explain why he’s thumping her.
It just wasn’t in the script was it.
Ah Kevin, you’ve shown the hand! I was saving it to whump Finns with when he showed up. It would seem the last straw has slipped through the Clintonite grasp…
“There’s a new CBS/NYT poll out; but I haven’t yet seen a write-up of the campaign details. So a few nuggets, which will be followed later with a write-up at TPM Election Central.
The internals look significantly better for Obama than Clinton. For instance, Democrats overwhelmingly think Obama’s the stronger general election candidate — 56% to 32%. On favorable vs. unfavorable ratings, Obama has the biggest net positive of all three candidates — 19%. Clinton has a net negative 1%.’
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/187250.php
‘The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,196 registered voters, including 510 Democratic primary voters and 323 Republican primary voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus three percentage points for all voters, four percentage points for Democratic primary voters and five percentage points for Republican primary voters. The margin is slightly higher for subsets within the sample, like white men.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/us/politics/03cnd-campaign.html?hp
150 – Pancho
Whilst early days, it is still concerning that neither Democrat is ahead of McCain on that site. Also the recent national polls have McCain ahead of Obama. One can only wonder how much damage Clinton continues to do by refusing to drop out and preventing Obama from unifying the party and running a strong case against McCain as soon as possible.
Afternoon Blugders all -
I’m off for a couple of days so I’ll be relying on MSM- so much less interesting than you lot.
I’m expecting that Hillary’s decline will pick up in speed, especially now Bullwinkle is pissing off the SD’s.
Sorry to not be able to attend the inaugural PB’s pub crawl but Victoria is just way too far. Maybe we should hold an annual state by state conference. In a bar of course. And near a pool for acquabatic demos for GG.
Have fun and will check in in the next couple of days.
btw – my official diagnosis on Hillary’s capacity for delusional thinking and denial is that she is, in fact, officially f*cking nuts and needs serious psychiatric support as she will not cope when the time comes to defer to Obama. Which is approaching rapidly.
asanque – There is simply no way that either Dem would be beaten by 100 electoral votes against McCain. I think that these three way polls are distorting the results offered, particularly in state by state contests, where Democratic people are closer to the ground and focussed on their Democratic preference. So I wouldn’t pay too much attention to what these electoral maps are showing in either instance until there is a nominee (except for the purposes of having a snipe a Finns). I think what Obama needs to do is just focus on the next three races, perform well, and give Hillary a pathway out that doesn’t humiliate her, or at least start reinforcing the narrative that he is looking beyond this contest and towards McCain.
If you accept that the figures being shown on this electoral vote map give inflated victories to McCain, then this is probably because Democratic voters have not closed around their candidate, so Obama needs to win over those Clintonites who are still bitterly fighting at the moment. History again would indicate that they will come back when this nomination contest is over, but I think at this stage that a better scenario has Hillary forced out by logic and numbers rather than calls from Obama and his supporters. If it hasn’t cleared up and things take a turn for the nasty after NC, then it might be time to worry. For the moment though, I don’t think that Hillary’s presence, or the numbers shown on those electoral maps are a huge concern for November.
A guide to how the general election will go is to look at the state of the nation polls.
Not to put too fine a point on it, the majority thinks they’re cactus and that they’ve got serious problems.
You can read about it here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/03/us/03cnd-poll.html?hp
…and of course, the vast majority who aren’t bolted on Republican voters, will think long and hard about electing them to misgovern their country.
As the article points out, the numbers are very bad, especially at the beginning of an economic turndown. Imagine where they’ll go when the official reading is negative GDP!
McCain, meanwhile, is cranking up the time machine and taking little tours to another era, and really pressing the point that he’s from another age, is way out of touch with this one, but has had a large hand in landing them where they currently are.
Come November, McCain will want to set the dials on his time machine to the 1960’s, and leave himself there…permanently.
One more variable we can take out of the equation.
After his keynote speech at CTIA, the annual U.S. wireless industry showcase, Edwards was asked in a question-and-answer session if he would accept the nomination for vice president.
I am not sure which polls rate for inclusion in electoral-vote.com , but I notice that NJ, shown as narrowly Republican , has had a recent poll with Obama up by 5 vs McCain. Ohio, show as weak Republican, has had a recent poll with Obama up by 1.
Flip those 15+20 electoral votes and Obama vs McCain looks interesting (261 vs 268).
In fairness, those latest polls also have Hillary in front of McCain in those states, which would give 248 vs 289 electoral votes. Give Hillary Florida as well, and it becomes 265 vs 262.
I think people predicting a huge Republican win based on the last week of electoral-vote.com maps might be in for a big surprise in November.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
Quote du jour:
“Again, we see the sad evolution of the U.S. of A. since the end of the ’60s. Then, fewer than five million people received food stamps. Now, nearly six times that number are living on them…after, what was supposed to be the biggest boom the world has ever seen.”
The Daily Reckoning
Afternoon all. I see Hillary is still billion year old carbon, and I don’t mean a diamond.
Quick update from Byron Bay internet cafe on the “Great Southern Concession Date Challenge” – will post a list of entries on Monday when back home. Looks like 6 bottles of fine fermented grape juice so far for the winner. (Harry H, if you win I will substitute a case of the world’s best beer, Coopers Sparkling Ale.)
Junior senator – greater time specificity needed.
Election day in SE Qld? Sounds good, as long as that boat is not a 12′ tinnie.
Jen – come on – it’s only $79 by air to the G Coast.
Ferny G – Have you secured those 11 orphans from Diogenes yet?
Sadly no JV. Diog ignored my plea.
Kevin, I wouldn’t give polling figures for one nominee against McCain the time of day until the nomination is settled. The Democratic Party is too polarised at the moment for those sorts of comparisons to be made and conclusions to be drawn on what will happen in November.
The polls I would prefer to see is Democrat v Republican (regardless of the nominee), although I know this is distorted, I think it would give a better indication of how the ongoing nomination battle is affecting their chances come November.
I also noticed that Obama was only 1% behind McCain in Texas polling according to Electoral-Vote, and that doesn’t really seem at all likely. Kinda like polls showing Turnbull only 1% up in Wentworth I guess.
Meanwhile, on McCain’s supposed great strength, whipping foreignb devils, especially Iraqis, things are going slightly less than swimmingly. Not only did the Iraqi Army fail in Basra, even with American support, but an Iranian general negotiated (ordered?) the cease-fire:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com:80/staff/warren_strobel/story/32337.html
Even worse, the Iranian chappy is on the U.S. terrorist list:
http://www.mcclatchydc.com:80/staff/warren_strobel/story/32141.html
And a telling insight into where the real power resides in Iraq:
Ayatollah Khomeini’s ghost must be peeing itself with delight!
McCain’s 100 years of occupation is beginning to appear wildly optimistic. He’d better start thinking in terms of millennia.
162
MayoFeral
To put it bluntly Mayo, the Iranians saved Uncle Sam’s butt by quenching the fire before it really took off.
But did the US press pay it any notice?
Nup. In fact McCain was still doddering around the country telling all and sundry that Iran was the problem in Iraq!
How did the ’superpower’ implode so quickly? Breathtaking arrogance and stupidity is a powerful force, eh what?
Selamat Bludgers,
Fri April 4: Thought yesterday’s Lil Abner HillBilly one from Danziger was better.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=Aja4COP602y7w8x.kNj4w6Pb.sgF
Thurs April 3: Imbecile Training. Check out Barney’s eyes.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=ApqW04cC57rasvE2Q5PVN5JR_b4F
Little Danae has presidential material written all over her.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Aov9cd2HHPN5A8uf1TbmsTvd.sgF
164
Enemy Combatant
Hey Ecky, that last one is closer to the truth than you’d like to imagine. There was an article, in the NYTimes I think, about people walking out of their homes, and get this, leaving their pets!
Maybe the foodstamps don’t cover tins of Pal?
Ecky, I think you need a dose of this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kung_Fu_Kapers
…especially the “Fatal Effect” section! LOL
Quote of the week:
“There is no such thing as a pledged delegate”
…guess who said that, and no, there are no prizes, it’s too bleeding obvious!
KR – if/when the brown stuff really starts hitting the U.S. economic fan dog food might be about the only thing they’ll be able to get with foodstamps.
Especially, if The Village Idiot ™ is still in ‘charge’
Seems the massive grassroots support for Obama is being reflected in the enormous amounts of donations flowing his way:
“Obama’s new total campaign financing breaks Democratic records, with his bid now collecting in excess of $234 Million.”
http://www.scopical.com.au/articles/News/World/4121/Clinton_running_far_behind_Obama_on_fundraising
With the average donation at $90, Obama is clearly drawing wide support.
Hillary is having trouble keeping up. Her donations fell by 50% in March compared to February.
162
MayoFeral
To make matters worse:
The New York Times confirms that “over a thousand” officers and troops of the Iraqi army declined to fight the Mahdi Army in Basra or deserted their posts. It also reports that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki replaced them by inducting 10,000 Shiite “tribal” fighters into the Iraqi army. But the Iraqi press didn’t call them “tribal,” it called them Badr Corps, the paramilitary of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, headed by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim and now al-Maliki’s main political ally. I’m not sure about the source of the discrepancy, but the NYT piece seems to be based on interviews with Iraqi and American government officials. It is possible that the need to strengthen the Iraqi army by turning to a Shiite militia trained by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (terrorists!) was just too embarrassing to admit. So the officials used the euphemism “tribal forces” with the foreign press.
(Juan Cole)
…oops, couldn’t report that in the middle of McCain’s spin about the “Iraqi government standing on its own two feet” could we? LOL
I read an interesting article about ex Republican, now Libertarian Party leader Bob Barr running as a candidate.
He is an old time Republican/Libertarian apparantly who should appeal to a section of the Repub base who can’t swallow McCain.
I actually think the Dems will win the election comfortably but if for some reason it is close,Me thinks there could be more of a Barr Effect than a Nader Effect.
KR – now the Iranians have shown they can play Iraq like a Stradivarius what’s the betting they try orchestrating events in the lead up to Nov to boost the chances of the candidate they believe they can best work with?
While you’d think that would have to be the Dem nominee, they may decide on McCain given that the last time they were players in American politics it was another old Republican that they made a deal with.
172
MayoFeral
It’s too scary to contemplate, eh? Although somewhere there’s a story about one of the high Iranian officials being told of Barack’s middle name, and after he overcame his surprise, asked if he had ant chance of winning the presidency! LOL
But more seriously, I’d suspect they’d prefer someone who wants to talk to them over someone who thinks it good idea if Israel bombed them.
(One of the most annoying things is the line about Ahmadinejad supposedly saying he wanted to wipe Isreal ‘off the map’. He in fact said no such thing, but the western MSM went mental with a sloppy translation and infered a statement that does not have any currency in Farsi.)
Ferny
I ventured down into the cellar. I’ve only got 4 Rockfords Basket Press 94 left. The wife must have been drinking them to anaesthetise herself against the horror of living with me. There are 8 Henscke Mt Edelstone 94 as well (which is actually a better wine than the Basket Press). You are welcome to them. You could make a donation to William and I’ll send you them.
GG @ 173; Nice.
seems like McCain’s lead has evaporated over at http://www.electoral-vote.com.
scary for the Repugs.
Diogenes,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1KvgtEnABY
GG
What a great movie! I watched it a couple of weeks ago for the third time. Did you know that Jack T Ripper was based on real people. There was a strong anti-fluoride movement in the US who thought it was a Commie plot. They even have their own website…still!
http://www.fluoridealert.org/
A new slant on things.
“A historically minded reader has suggested that the Democrats end their fratricidal battle by taking a cue from what the Whigs did in the 1836 election when they couldn’t decide between the Northern candidate and the Southern candidate: they ran both. The Democrats could do this, too: put Obama on the ballot in the Western states in which he did well and put Clinton on the ballot in the big Democratic states like Ohio where she won solid victories. Of course, if successful, this strategy would split the electoral votes three ways and nobody would get a majority. Then the newly elected House would choose the President, with each state getting one vote. The Democrats will almost assuredly control the new House. Of course, the battle between Obama and Clinton would then be reignited in the House Democratic caucus so the Democratic members of the House would end up choosing the nominee. But that is going to happen now anyway. However, by doing it that way, the House Democrats would be sure their choice would become President, without having to bother beating a pesky and popular Republican. Of course, the party would need enough discipline to make sure every member of the House voted for the winner of the House caucus vote and normally herding Democrats is like herding cats. The one downside to this strategy is that it didn’t work for the Whigs in 1836; Martin van Buren, Andrew Jackson’s Vice President, won a majority of the electoral vote outright.”
Kirribilli, the “fatal effect” would be as good a way to go as any. Very funny lads those Goodies. Looked on you-tube for John Belushi doing the samuri sausage chops, ie something martial arty and to do with food to reply to black pudding and kung fu as per your link, but couldn’t locate it. Classic comedy.
However you did mention food stamps, pal.
Fri Apr 4: You Can Eat Food Stamps?
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9D0CE7D81E31F932A05753C1A967958260
40 Years of American Economic Progress. The Imbecile assures US that with his hand firmly on the tiller, President Reagan’s Trickle-Down is a monumental success.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AiIGH_3tWShrzvLuzVhKS2oV2r8F
Thurs April 3: Johnny Bomb-Bomb gets smart after too many auto-cue malfunctions
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=Ag.ucOLIvypgSH0EpzYKCMVW_b4F
Below, Aussie Mike socks it to mendacious war-mongers. Ware reminds me of Sean Flynn, a reporter who covered the Nam war, was big on derring-do and got an honourable mention in the masterful “Dispatches” by Michael Herr. Herr had considerable input on Coppola’s Apocalypse Now.
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/03/michael-ware-interview/
More bad news for the Clinton Campaign.
InsiderAdvantage Pennsylvania poll just out shows Clinton just 2% ahead of Obama.
April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%.
The results are:
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 42%
Undecided: 12%*
InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_43_318.aspx
#159
jaundiced view
No time to firm up my numbers right now (life is getting in the way).
I’ll watch this race from the sideline.
Fri April 4: Of houses built, candlesticks vaulted but not bean-stalks scaled.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AijqoQN1zQr1xdPnqFCH6TBT_b4F
Thurs April 3: Moral Unequivalence
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=Ah3_KvTZXY.A0CkpiDpMIVMxvTYC
Fri April 4: Staying Focussed
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Athu3GwELCEK2Ib5dz1vBCEDwLAF
The Obama campaign seems to have mastered the art of how to kill the spread. They were nailed in some states earlier on, but as the camapign has progressed, they’ve deployed increasingly high quality and sophisticated campaigning assets into ordinarily pro-Clinton states (Texas being a good example, Penn looking the same). For the last 2 months I’ve been watching the Obama campaign unfold in… well, in awe. I dont know who the real campaign strategy team is behind Obama, but they seriously have their shit together.
I just ran a quick look at the spread between Clinton and Obama in Penn, and adjusted it for MoE (US polls have so much more information available about them that it makes them almost a pleasure to work with – looking forward to the real contest!). Over the last 6 weeks, the spread has reduced from between about 14-24 favouring Clinton down to +4 to Obama to +5 to Clinton.
The polls look tight. If the late deciders continue to run to Clinton as they’ve been doing, she’ll win – but if the spread crunch continues, it will only be by about 5-7 points max… but most likely less.
If the late deciders run to Obama giving him victory – then surely Clinton would have to concede?
Oh look its the Green Grinch and more of his senile insane ravings. Must have escaped from the sanitorium again where obviously he was restrained due to his homoerotic fantasies.
William: could you do us all a favour and ban GG. Surely he has had more then enough chances and contributes nothing by his inane harassment of posters.
GG should indeed not leave comments like 173, which I would have deleted if I’d been on the ball, but I wouldn’t put it any higher than that.
#186
William Bowe
Nothings is stopping you from deleting the post. Just login, select the post, scroll to the bottom of the page, and hit the delete button.
#173 – GG – why spoil the fun of the Obamaphiles’ mutual admiration and ego boasting party. just beginning to enjoy the [swallowing each others.............. #173] bit. have a nice weekend to all.
The grim reaper of recession is scything away in the US, lopping the ranks of the employed. Another 80,000 jobs lost in March, to make three straight months of losses.
That ‘r’ word that everyone from the Grinning Chimp to Helicopter Ben has been avoiding like the plague is in full swing. And it’s not pretty.
Forget Iraq, ‘experience’, or the old scare tactic ‘terrorism’, come November it will be one thing, and one thing only: the economy. The nation is plunging into the deepest recession it’s seen for many, many generations, it has no savings, it’s loaded with debt (after decades of spending more than it earned) and there’s commodity price inflation hitting them in the checkbook every day. And remember too, that vast amounts of ‘wealth’ in the form of property values are evaporating, by some estimates nearly $3 trilion dollars will disappear!
Ladies and gentleman, this is very, very ugly, and politics aside for one moment, we should give a thought to the personal misery this whirlwind will create, which is a force more devastating than any hurricane by many orders of magnitude.
But in political terms, it’s a reminder of how empires grow fat, corrupt, and lazy with their own supremacy, and although the current administration is not to blame for all of it, they’ve thrown the accelerant on the flames with blissful ignorance of what they were doing.
God help them.
Finns & GG, no one likes a sore loser. Hillary brought her gun to the knife fight but she’s firing blanks.
He is unstoppable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n2cQGuSu7JU&feature=related
TW,
Can’t wait for the “Marching Band” version. Rather than unstoppable it will be more like this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q5TXqZUICaA
181 js
“Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.”
That’s a much lower Obama black vote than usually occurs. I believe it represents a “reverse Bradley”. We have heard endlessly about the Bradley effect, where white voters try not to appear racist to pollsters and “fake” Obama votes which they renege on in the polling booth. The opposite should be true, where black voters do the opposite. I expect Obama will get his usual 80% black vote.
The Clinton’s have released their last seven tax returns. Personally, I don’t give a sh*t about their financial arrangements as they will not change my opinion of her one way or the other unless there is something remarkable in them. But there are an awful lot of journos looking to make their name on them by dredging up connections. I was surprised how much Bill makes from public speeches ($50M).
Ben Smith, who is an undisguised Billary shill IMHO, has pointed out that the the Clinton’s claimed $150K (!!!) for home office cleaning and maintenance in one year. There’s going to be at least a week of ugly questions and jokes to keep the Obamomentum narrowing Pennsylvania.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0408/Worlds_cleanest_homeoffice.html#comments
KR @ 189 –
Ladies and gentleman, this is very, very ugly, and politics aside for one moment, we should give a thought to the personal misery this whirlwind will create,
Yep, gotta feel for Nelson’s poor bankers!
But also seriously, the poor buggers still have 9 months of Bush fanning the flames before anyone with at least half an idea can get their hands on the levers. They (and we) better hope they ain’t McCain’s mitts!
And as tough as it will be for the current adult generations, I suspect that the next few are going to bear an even bigger burden if “Helicopter Ben” does what he says he’ll do and just keep tossing money – i.e debt – at the problems until they go away (or treasury runs out of paper and ink).
And an ex-Governor of Puerto Rico predicts she will lose the primary there. Evidently she has shafted them recently.
The RCP “article” predicted she would win Puerto Rico by 25% easily. Barone said 30%. Obama’s campaign predicts 10%. I know who I would back out of those three.
During the question and answer portion of the event, one audience member asked Colón about the recent proposed bill, signed by Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York, which states that commonwealth is not an option as a permanent status of Puerto Rico.
“That report will probably cost Hillary Clinton the primary in Puerto Rico,” Colón said.
http://media.www.dailyorange.com/media/storage/paper522/news/2008/04/04/News/ExGovernor.Discusses.Puerto.Rico.U.s.Relations-3303661-page2.shtml
Ashcroft booed for say Osama instead of Obama during a rant about the Patriot Act.
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4591612
Mornin’ Sep politics tragics. Ya know, for card-carrying bludgers, some of you people are pretty industrious.
Possum at 183: “For the last 2 months I’ve been watching the Obama campaign unfold in… well, in awe.”
Yep, awe inspiring to Aussies and awesome to Seps, it’s been indeed. Brutusina is cactus. She smells bad. SDs are no longer returning her calls. Bubba’s recent red-faced dummy-spit spoke volumes to seasoned campaign watchers.
Obi’s “killing them” at the neighbourhood level, raising monster amounts at $20 and $50 a time. His audacity of hope caper has activated legions of otherwise switched-off and jaded voters. Literally tens of thousands of supporters are systematically going gangbusters to get enough voters to the polling stations so that the result in November will be beyond rigging a la OHIO 2004 and Florida 2000.
This is the Grassroots v Beltway in no uncertain terms and emphasises why The Kid is perceived by ruling elites (MIC, MSM, GOPper HQ etc.) as an existential threat to their ongoing “leadership” and industrial strength suction access to the Fed trough. “Oink, slurp, burb, squeal.” At BushCo this lust is bred right into ‘em from the moment of conception.
HST on Poppy Bush: “He has the instincts of a dung beetle. No living politician can match his talent for soiling himself in public. Bush will seek out filth wherever it lives… and when he finds a new heap he will fall down and wallow crazily in it, making snorting sounds out of his nose and rolling over on his back and kicking his legs up in the air while squealing shrilly like a wild hog coming to water.”
Obi’s ass ain’t owned. He offers a latter-day New Deal to the people with whom Kirribilli so passionately empathises.
As the greatest election show on earth chugs towards its thrilling and historic climax, I dare say some of us will age 7 years in the next 7 months but who gives a rat’s! Political change like this beckons but once in a lifetime and personally, I’d rather burn out than rust; to be aboard this rollercoaster rather than live in quiet desperation while the planet is destroyed by those whose vainglorious imperatives are best served by having a poodle reside at 1600 Penn.
Cbet latest: (back to the same board odds as before TX primaries)
OBAMA, Barack 1.90 (firms 5c)
MCCAIN, John 2.85 (steady)
CLINTON, Hillary 4.50 (drifts 25c)
Johnny Bomb-Bomb’s bedside lamp in Memphis
http://miva01.nyi.net/graphics/00000001/man_lamp7_sm.jpg
good post EC
the kind of post that makes PB the site it is.
It begins:
‘What Did Bill Clinton Do To Get $14.4M From Ron Burkle?’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/04/what-did-bill-do-to-get-1_n_95189.html
I wonder how all this will play out with the poor mountain-folk championing the underdog-battler? Still, the spinmeisters did manage to release the tax returns on a Friday at 4pm, no doubt with the hope of partially burying both them, and covering Jester in Chief Mark Penn’s lobbying for a union-busting free trade deal that Hills opposes (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/04/mark-penn-apologizes-for_n_95090.html).
The ramshackle carnival rolls on. Magnificent campaign.
Willaim – Keeping GG on task would be useful but how about resurrecting Davidoff – whose insights were very helpful.
No chance, Wakefield.
Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?
Yes, he faces an uphill battle to win. Nobody disputes that. But stranger things will happen, and at some point the press will chip away at Obama a bit more. Probably once their current playing toy drops out. And once it becomes 1v1, his odds will drop considerably. He still has at least a month left in which he can build his foundations and raise a bit of spare cash, and it’s probably close to two. I really don’t care what the press waffle about, while their may be advantages to Clinton staying in, the disadvantages almost certainly outweigh them.
Still, I think Karl Rove was on the ball when he said the wounds are fresh and look nasty, but aren’t too deep to mortally wound the eventual candidate.
The odds for Obama ($1.90) aren’t bad either, although it is questionable as to whether they could get better in the coming months. And of course there is still the chance he will lose the nomination, so it’s a bit tricky to hedge bets at this point, given there is a slight chance you can lose it all. But the McCain bet looks a goer. And anybody who plonked on Obama a few months ago can now guarantee themselves a profit by throwing a few bob on McCain.
Ah the benefits of foresight.
During Bill Clinton’s presidency, he was persuaded not to intervene in the Bosnian genocide. He read a book called Balkan Ghosts which argued that the Balkans would never be stable due to age-old conflicts. He famously wimped out in the Balkans, as did Bush 1 (Maggie Thatcher offered to start up a company called “Rent-a Spine”). And who gave him the book… Hillary “Freedom for Bosnia” Clinton. Hitchens would be proud!
The Dangers of Letting a President Read
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9E00E6D61631F931A15756C0A96F958260&sec=&spon=
Thanks, HarryH.
Anyone who saw Al Gore’s performance after FL 2000 in the US Senate which was well documented in Farenheit 911, smacking down dozens of black district challengers one after the other who cried foul at the Florida result should enjoy this little gem.
Sat. April 5:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Ar.sB4_bqGlHPK..aKN3PqkDwLAF
Sat. April 5: Waste a Raghead while securing YOUR ticky-tacky* box !
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AvRdOJiDmCZ5eBrwFN1FWn3X.sgF
* Little boxes on the hillside,
Little boxes made of ticky-tacky,
Little boxes, little boxes,
Little boxes, all the same.
There’s a green one and a pink one
And a blue one and a yellow one
And they’re all made out of ticky-tacky
And they all look just the same.
(Malvina Reynolds)
Fri. April 4: Tyranny /n. the cruel and arbitrary use of authority.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AkmdfBt3tICjweKpT5RFWhtQ_b4F
Fri April 4: “In God We Trust”, but not even God can sink this economy!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Akjph1jaZJgmHL_TmvhVch9N_b4FFirefoxHTML\Shell\Open\Command
Fri April 4: Hey! She’s an American, OK?! She saw a chance to make a buck……
so she took it!*
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=ApzkDyKO4NT7r65QYygGpxBU_b4F
*with a little help from Mae-Rose Prizzi (Angelica Houston) to Charley Partana (Jack Nicholson) in Prizzi’s Honor.
“Anybody else think those are remarkably good odds for McCain at $2.80?”
Not really, Max. No price is a good price about a loser. I do agree, however, that Obi’s odds of ~ $1.90 are worth the punt. A 90% ROI in seven months isn’t bad considering the quality of his opponents.
197
Enemy Combatant
Best post on I’ve read on the Obama vs Clinton race. You have put the case for Obama so succinctly. I have always believed and said that Obama as POTUS would be the best result to seriously fight Global Warming, the tension between the Muslim world and the West as well as the financial crisis that is moron Bush’s devastating legacy.
A black man, son of a Muslim as POTUS!! I believe that Obama would be a unifying figure internationally. He would go a long way in regaining the respect and solidarity as expressed by Chirac in the wake of September 11 when he said “Today we are all Americans”. We need as many unifying world leaders as we can get.
The Audacity of Hype.
From the Politico, here’s a wonderful example of Barack Obama puffery:
Even as he fends off Senator Hillary Clinton in the Democratic nomination contest, Senator Barack Obama is already turning his attention to the general election, and to an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate in his favor.
Bringing new voters to the polls “is going to be a very big part of how we win,” said Obama’s deputy campaign manager, Steve Hildebrand, in an interview. “Barack’s appeal to independent voters is also going to be key.”
Hildebrand said the campaign is likely to turn its attention and the energy of its massive volunteer army this fall on registering African-American voters, and voters under 35 years old, in key states.
“Can it change the math in Ohio? Very much so,” he said. “If you look at the vote spread between Bush and Kerry in 2004–we could potentially erase that.”
Ho hum, he’s preparing a general election strategy. But according to Politico, it’s “an ambitious plan to reshape the American electorate”! Last month he gave a speech designed to control the political damage resulting from a dubious association. But as we noted, the Associated Press described this as single-handedly confronting the nation’s racial divide head-on!
If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”
Hey Grinch –
If he steps in a puddle, the headline will read “Obama Walks on Water.”
I told you, we’re recruiting him for the PB Synchronised Swimmers.
Just checked out the polls- He’s even going to win Pennsylvania at this stage if the trend continues, and he’s over 5% ahead on overall spread- …she’s toast.
207
Jen
That’s not what RCP has, Jen:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
…but a lead of 20pts has dribbled down quite a bit in the last few weeks, and the big Mo is surely with Obi.
I’ll agree with the last bit…she’s toast!
True KR but some of those polls used in the average are a little old. A new Survey USa one should be out soon.
Kirri,
I was referring to the fact that she has lost such a big lead in such a short time, so it’s possible he could overtake her and win it, which only days ago was not even considered possible. He’s got the momentum.
Hey GG
Hillary Deathwatch 8.8% and dropping.
http://www.slate.com/id/2188260/
What is it with you Hillarites on PB? Are you reincarnated DLP?
Are you reincarnated DLP?
You write as if this would be a bad thing?
Please explain?
Jen @ 210,
I reckon Obama can win PA, or at least get pretty close.
And, yes, she is definitely toast. I didn’t always think that, but I was a Good Friday convert – the day (Oz time) that Richardson “came out”.
I don’t want to sound like I’m pouring water on your faith Jen, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if the Kid took PA, but, I’d expect Clinton to scrape it through like Texas.
In which case, she’s still toast!
You’re probably right Kirri, but it would be the clincher, and it’s not outside the realm of possibilities. There is a change afoot, and Obama is the symbol.
Dyno @ 213
It was Good Friday, hence the Judas comment from Carville. I seem to recall struggling to get some enthusiasm from my fellow bludgers who were otherwise occupied over some trivial matter.
Well GG being reincarnated DLP isn’t a bad thing. However it goes a long way in explaining why you’d support hillary ahead of obama. Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.
The world is at a critical turning point. Maintaining the status quo is the wrong option. We need DLP conservatism to hone our arguement for change. To expose the stupidity of maintaining the status quo.
Max @217,
“Hillary is acceptable to the status quo of the establishment, Obama definitely isn’t.”
Not if you are reading the same Obamaphobic tosh that passses as reportage that I am.
“The world is at a critical turning point.”
Which world would that be?
You and EC would make a great pair with your meaningless cliche driven 60’s protest song view of the world. Kumbayah indeed.
GG – This sort of reportage?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/05/clinton-under-fire-over-f_n_95218.html
“Clinton Under Fire Over False Story Of Health Care Horror”
“Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.
The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.[...]“
I’d shorten Joe Biden’s VP odds:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/05/joe-biden-the-surge-is-a_n_95221.html
“WASHINGTON — A leading Democrat on Saturday declared last year’s troop buildup in Iraq a failure. Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the military push didn’t succeed because U.S. troops remain committed there in large numbers and political reconciliation has not been achieved”
GG @ 218
Did you really man Obamaphobic tosh?
Obamaphobic would be fear of Obama.
Obamaphilic would be love of Obama.
Diogenes – stop letting facts get in the way of hillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillaryhillary…
A couple of others worth a look:
She still hasn’t worked out the meaning of ‘pledged’ here -
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Story?id=4596305&page=2
“Sen. Hillary Clinton made a blunt appeal to North Dakota delegates to switch their support to her, despite the fact that Sen. Barack Obama handily defeated her in the state’s caucus in February.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/05clintons.html?_r=1&hp=&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&adxnnlx=1207436434-j3Dd8LQCic6vjGqI0n59oQ
“During that time, the Clintons paid $33.8 million in federal taxes and claimed deductions for $10.2 million in charitable contributions. The contributions went to a family foundation run by the Clintons that has given away only about half of the money they put into it, and most of that was last year, after Mrs. Clinton declared her candidacy.”
Diogenes,
You are right . However, English sometimes becomes a second language on Sunday mornings.
As for the media bias against Hillary, this story based on SNL says it pretty well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqtFJQ7hvI&NR=1
Check out this McCain ad! Hilarious:
http://www.johnmccain.com/service/day2_webvideo.htm
I knew it, Obama is the Shane Warne candidate.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/obama-is-smokin.html
This is a real fire under smoke moment. How can anyone trust anything this man has to say?
GG, you asked about Opes Prime the other day, well here’s an excellent article on the mess:
http://business.smh.com.au/banks-the-ringmasters-in-ruinous-financial-circus/20080404-23re.html
…and what you need to know is that the ANZ, by ‘lending’ the shares to hedge funds to short sell, basically fueled the demise of Opes.
It’s really high farce.
Its connection to the subprime disaster is that the initial falls in our market where related to the uncertaintities about financial institutions’ liquidity; ANZ just helped it along.
224
Pancho
McCain is trying to look like one of the founding fathers!
Who’s writing this stuff?
Maybe they’ve figured that Bush is seen as having lied about WMD etc, so he’s trying to make out he’s different?
It’s really pretty awful stuff, corny and pompous, and he’s only got a few lies brought out for public attention to make him look really stupid.
Amusing:
Mark Penn, the chief campaign strategist for Hillary Clinton, in his day job as CEO of the public relations and lobbying firm Burson-Marsteller, turns out to be under contract to Colombia to promote U.S. congressional passage of a free trade agreement with the South American nation. According to the Wall Street Journal, Penn met with Colombia’s ambassador to the U.S. on Monday to discuss the deal. So even as he was presumably advising the Clinton campaign to sharpen its anti-trade message to win votes in Ohio, he was simultaneously stuffing himself at the pro-trade buffet.
Penn’s behavior is utterly appropriate, from the standpoint of a public relations profession. Like criminal defense lawyers, public relations executives are there do a job, irrespective of their personal feelings. No one cares whether Penn himself is pro- or anti-trade — Burson-Marsteller is in the business to make (a lot of) bucks.
But from the standpoint of Hillary Clinton, Penn’s behavior might look a little different. Personally, if I had already paid Penn $10 million for his services, I’d be miffed at his Colombia FTA moonlighting — that doesn’t seem like good value for money spent.
Salon.com
GG @ 225,
If Obama is the Warnie candidate, you’d better hope that Hillary is not Mike Gatting…
KR @ 228,
Most professions now are (at least notionally) pretty tough on conflicts of interests, real or perceived. Assuming the info is correct, what Penn has done would get him sacked if I was Clinton.
Andrew Leonard in Salon tells an interesting story about how his friend gave evidence in a congressional hearing in 1991 about deregulating the financial industry. This of course was to lead to today’s mess, and here’s what this guy told them, seventeen years ago:
Banks that need to get money to a troubled securities affiliate will do exactly the same thing. By linking up three or more banks, each with its own securities subsidiary, a daisy chain will facilitate a round robin of reciprocal loans in times of need. Then, the next time we have a Black Monday on Wall Street, this daisy chain will swing into action as a handful of mega-banks try to prop one another’s securities subsidiaries and their customers as the market plummets.
In such a scenario, billions of federally insured dollars will disappear in the twinkle of a few program trades.
That will happen, not might happen but will happen, and when it does these too-big-to-fail banks will have to be propped up with Federal money. In the smoking aftermath, Congress can stand around and wring its hands and give speeches about how awful it is that these bankers violated the spirit of the law, but once again, the money will be gone, the bill will have come due, and taxpayers will again be required to cough it up.
…no one can see they could not see it coming, unless they were willfully blind or lying.
And so, it came to pass.
“no one can SAY they could not see it coming…”
ooops.
Lies no: 11??
Obama Adviser Calls for Troops To Stay in Iraq Through 2010
By ELI LAKE, STAFF REPORTER OF THE SUN | April 4, 2008
WASHINGTON — A key adviser to Senator Obama’s campaign is recommending in a confidential paper that America keep between 60,000 and 80,000 troops in Iraq as of late 2010, a plan at odds with the public pledge of the Illinois senator to withdraw combat forces from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.
http://www.nysun.com/politics/obama-adviser-calls-troops-stay-iraq-through-2010
Rasmussen – Obama 51-41 Clinton
“The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama with his largest lead ever in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now attracts 51% of the vote while Clinton earns 41% (see recent daily results). Obama leads 61% to 30% among Men including a thirteen-point advantage among White Men. Obama leads 84% to 12% among African-American voters while Clinton holds a seven-point edge among White voters. Among Democrats, Obama leads by four. He holds a much healthier lead among unaffiliated voters likely to vote in a Democratic Primary.”
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
Finns, from yr link:
‘Both Mr. Kahl and a senior Obama campaign adviser reached yesterday said the paper does not represent the campaign’s Iraq position
…“We have experts and scholars with a range of views and Barack appreciates this range of views. They are in think tanks and like me they write in their own voice, they are people who do their independent scholarship. Barack Obama cannot be held accountable for what we all write,” she said. Ms. Rice said she had not seen the paper, which is marked as a draft and “not for attribution without author’s permission.”
Mr. Kahl yesterday said, “This has absolutely zero to do with the campaign.” He added, “There are elements that are consistent with the Democratic Party’s approach, and I will leave it to others to find out if there are elements that are not.”’
What’s below the bottom of the barrel?
GG @ 223 I was wondering whether it may have been a Freudian slip?
I partly agree with your comments about the media. Being a hard line Chomskyist, I think the MSM are a pathetic pack of propagandists. They were unduly lax on Obama initially to create a contest. Once they got a contest, they kept it going but when Obama was blowing Hillary away they tried to even things up. Now they realise that she has lost and they’re basically just tormenting her like a cat with a half-dead mouse.
Dyno- I don’t think Penn has a conflict of interests as such. He is just espousing conflicting views. He is a public relations man after all and any opinion he has should be recognised as worthless.
Mornin’ Bludgers -
Finns and Grinch, this one is for you. And r/Ron if he’s still around…
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/04/05/my_fellow_clintonites_its_time_for_obama/
GG @ 225, Clinton must be Stuart MacGill.
Dyno and TW, Can you now say with any certainty that what we are seeing is Obama’s natural hair? Is that sun tan real? Remember he claims to be half white.
Which half?
Does Obama do dirty religion phone calls when he thinks no one is around.
Remember, if he lies about small things, he will lie about big things.
KR @ 226. Thanks for the follow up.
Cheers
Some movement on the superdelegate front – a Clinton backer Helen Langan moves from Clinton to the non-aligned list (dropping Clinton back to 245) while Obama picks up two new endorsements – one from Susan Montee and the other from Rod Caver taking his total to 218.
Source: Democratic Convention Watch.
Hillary was sacked from her job in the Watergate impeachment investigation. And what would that have been for? Let me guess. NO! It can’t be true…lying and unethical conduct.
“Because she was a liar,” Zeifman said in an interview last week. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
Watergate-Era Judiciary Chief of Staff: Hillary Clinton Fired For Lies, Unethical Behavior
http://www.northstarwriters.com/dc163.htm
Rush Limbaugh has jumped on the bandwagon on this latest scandal. Ot looks VERY bad for Billary.
On April 2, Zeifman was asked in an interview with nationally syndicated radio host Neal Boortz, “You fired her [Clinton], didn’t you?” Zeifman responded, “Let me put it this way, I terminated her along with other staff members who we no longer needed. And I said that I could not recommend her for any further positions.”
In a February 5 Accuracy in Media column, Zeifman expressed “regret that, when I terminated her employment on the Nixon impeachment staff, I had not reported her unethical practices to the appropriate bar associations.”
http://mediamatters.org/items/200804040011?f=h_latest
Good afternoon Bludgers, just took my darlin’ out for a long anniversary lunch. We talked and laughed and made plans about our future together. How sweet it was to love and be loved throughout all those wonderful years.
Dio at 242, Hillary is to hype what Winston Smith was to the Ministry of Truth.
Clinton said, “I started criticizing the war in Iraq before he did. So, I’m well aware that his entire campaign is premised on a speech he gave in 2002 and I give him credit for making that speech. But that was not a decision.”
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/04/05/politics/fromtheroad/entry3996192.shtml
Thanks for the kind words at 205, Vote1Maxine.
ec @ 244
I think it is more apt to say that Hillary Clinton is to ethical conduct what Jack the Ripper was to abdominal surgery.
junior senator,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040502348.html?sub=AR
Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.
Gore Vidal had some amusing things to say about him, but maybe now is not the time! LOL
It seems Obama is to Democracy what Jack the Ripper was to abdominal surgery.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/05/AR2008040501679.html
Hmmm, “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″ – So an 911 widow gets angry.
9/11: Where Barack Obama and Condi Rice Sound Alarmingly Alike………… How could Obama have such a poor understanding of the 9/11 attacks and their subsequent impact on the US intelligence community? Has Obama even read the 9/11 Commission’s Final Report that (even in its whitewash form) calls Rice to task for her “misleading” statement about the predictability of 9/11-style attacks? Or sets forth recommendations for intelligence community reforms?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/911-where-barack-obama-an_b_94850.html
Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG? Once more, in any case – Obama was not on the ballot in MI. It is undemocratic for Hillary to be attempting to count these votes. Probably almost as undemocratic as claiming that pledged delegates are not in fact pledged. I’m not sure how these actions fit in with the democracy argument but anyway…
Both will be seated. MI as a 50/50 split, Florida probably with a half value vote. Remembering that the FL vote was Hillary 49, Obama 33, Edwards 17, Id be pretty sure that Obama would hardly lose any ground at all once this is settled.
Whether or not you want to see it, harping on about these votes is a Clinton tactic to draw out the nomination contest. Nothing more. She doesn’t want to accept defeat yet, and more power to her in a way. But she will not catch Obama, with or without these states, which is why she has not responded to his offer, after MI said there would be no further vote, to split the delegates (which seems acceptable to the State).
With regards to the SD link you posted – Obama has picked up 10 to -2 in the last couple of weeks. This has included Richardson and Casey.
Finns – that is an understandably emotional argument, but its reasoning is full of holes. If I may:
In point 1, the author uses Lee Hamilton as an authority for security knowledge
Than a sentence later gives us
In point 2, she tells us that
and goes on to note there was much intelligence that could have been utilized in being better prepared. She also assumes that Obama makes the same comment, when he responds to a direct hypothestical with “I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″. Which is a fact. With regards to Rice’s response – yes, better intelligence work could have been done, and someone may have predicted 9/11. With regards to Obama’s – no one did in fact predict this singular event.
In point three
Fair enough. Overall, a pretty weak and manipulative argument though, if the above is what it is based on.
GG @ 248
It would be unconstitutional to count Michigan.
Federal judge: Michigan’s presidential primary law unconstitutional
http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080326/METRO/803260443/1361
And undemocratic to count Florida, where there was no campaigning, press interviews, debates etc… you know the whole democracy bit.
Although, her boss in the Justice Department would not be surprised by this. “She was an unethical, dishonest lawyer. She conspired to violate the Constitution, the rules of the House, the rules of the committee and the rules of confidentiality.”
I just LOVE that quote!
from 251 – point 2 – she tells us that Condi Rice said…
“I don’t think anybody predicted 9/11″ is a true statement. Why do Clinton supporters have a problem with the truth? Just because their candidate has an egocentric disdain for the truth, they don’t need to follow blindly.
Pancho,
“Doesn’t it get boring going over the same ground GG?”
Doesn’t seem to stop the Hillary Haters here. I’m thinking pots and kettles and black.
The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
“From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gain of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.
Clinton supporters say the slow pace of commitments is because of concerns, after Obama’s March 4 losses in Texas and Ohio, about whether he can win in November — doubts they have aggressively sought to stir in their private lobbying efforts.
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
All they have left is the anti Hillary mudslinging that pervades most of the alleged comment here and in the MSM.
Adding 50% more super delegates than Clinton in the same time period , while cutting her Pennsylvania lead down to 6 points from the double digit leads earlier is a stalled campaign?
If Clinton supporters are claiming this is a slow pace of commitments for Obama, aren’t they just highlighting how much slower the commitments for her are ?
“If you can’t win it in the primary, how are you going to win it in November? That’s our pitch,” said Sen. Robert Menendez (N.J.), a Clinton backer”.
Is he trying to attack Obi or Hillary?? great statement.
256 GG
Labelling criticism of a candidate as “mudslinging” without rebutting the criticisms doesn’t advance your argument. It’s just avoiding the issue.
Kevin,
It is the Obionekenobists that want the contest ended. Nothing has really changed since Ohio and Texas. It has all been a frenzy of inactivity.
Still two weeks plus to Pennsylvania.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 265 McCain 262 Ties 11
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 203 McCain 304 Ties 31
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 268 Ties 31
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 239 McCain 255 Ties 44
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 246 McCain 248 Ties 44
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 273 McCain 221 Ties 44
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 268 McCain 246 Ties 24
Apr. 05 – Electoral Votes: Obama 261 McCain 268 Ties 9
Apr. 01 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 31 – Electoral Votes: Obama 205 McCain 324 Ties 9
Mar. 30 – Electoral Votes: Obama 215 McCain 314 Ties 9
Mar. 28/29 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 26/27 – Electoral Votes: Obama 228 McCain 301 Ties 9
Mar. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 218 McCain 296 Ties 24
Mar. 24 – Electoral Votes: Obama 231 McCain 292 Ties 15
From the Votemaster – http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Diogenes,
Is that a prick being consciensed I hear.
KR at 247: “Dio, too late for a bet on Charlton Heston I’m afraid. Gone to the big shooting range in the sky.”
And didn’t Chucky get a bang out of life?
But never from Stephen Boyd, the Russell Crowe look-alike who played Messala in Ben-Hur.
Apparently the NRA (National Rifle Association), the humanitarian organization for whom Chucky was president from 1998-2003, and who are lobbying fiercely to have the right of citizens to bear high-powered automatic weaponry re-introduced in Washinton D.C. so that peaceable folk can defend themselves from the abstract noun terrorism in their own homes, are going to send Chucky off with a ten thousand and twenty-one gun salute after Michael Moore delivers the eulogy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ben-Hur_(1959_film)
For those who simply must know, scroll down to “Possible…subtext”.
Vidal’s novels are a tad ponderous but his essays and wit are “world’s best practice”.
GG @ 262 Very droll.
Johnny Bomb-Bomb Rides Again:
http://www.dailykos.com/
scroll down to Sam Loomis piccy.
Having glommed the pic, my header to some might seem illogical but isn’t.
The first time he tried this on, Johnny chickened out, jumped off, yanked his parachute chord and wound up as a special guest of the Hanoi Hilton.
The gung-ho old warmonger is locked and loaded to give it another go over I-ran.
Stanley sure made some great films. Freakin’ maestro!
GG #256 “The painful truth for the Obamaphilliacs is that the despite the audacity of hype that surrounds their favourite, their campaign has stalled.
‘From early December through early March, 144 superdelegates declared for Obama, according to a tally maintained by the Associated Press. He has added 14 superdelegates since March 5, for a total of 221, compared with a gai puben of nine for Clinton, bringing her count to 251, according to the AP.’ ”
So let me get this clear: He is leading in pledged delegates and this can’t be reversed by Denver. He is leading in the popular vote and this could only be reversed if Clinton wins Pennsylvania by about 20% whereas it’s now looking like she will either win or lose it by the length of a Brazilian bee’s pube. But despite previously winning virtually 100% of the SDs since super Tuesday he has won only 60% of same since March 5. Therefore he will not win the 31% of the SDs he will probably need to win 2025 in Denver.
Yes. his campaign has “stalled”.
It takes a village (of spinners) to raise this story from the dead:
Ohio Hospital Contests a Story Clinton Tells
By DEBORAH SONTAG
Over the last five weeks, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York has featured in her campaign stump speeches the story of a health care horror: an uninsured pregnant woman who lost her baby and died herself after being denied care by an Ohio hospital because she could not come up with a $100 fee.
The woman, Trina Bachtel, did die last August, two weeks after her baby boy was stillborn at O’Bleness Memorial Hospital in Athens, Ohio. But hospital administrators said Friday that Ms. Bachtel was under the care of an obstetrics practice affiliated with the hospital, that she was never refused treatment and that she was, in fact, insured.
“We implore the Clinton campaign to immediately desist from repeating this story,” said Rick Castrop, chief executive officer of the O’Bleness Health System.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/5/111812/9868/558/490671
According to the MSM Obama sucks at the ten-pin bowling thing, however, as relieved in the following U-Tube video – he may has skills in basketball. GG and Finns – do you think we should attribute this to his dark side or was he just plain lucky?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daH0ltD20A0
Mornin’, All.
Sun. April 6: Santa and the Tooth Fairy are gonna sue over this !
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/doonesbury;_ylt=AgYiS8MQgh7CEpLbkcSJqOdL6ysC
Sun April 6: Fed Grunter’s Never Ending Tour D’America.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AqQf0GBin.Ztngwb78Y8IaBS_b4F
Sun.April 6: Danae has been approached to become a flack on HRC’s campaign.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=ArYOoODDsOOHW7l5eiJ6KbLd.sgF
Good Morning PBs
Obama, man of the future.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/kishore-mahbubani/2008/04/06/1207420197410.html
Penn gets a slap:
“Maggie Williams has released the following statement from the Clinton camp:
After the events of the last few days, Mark Penn has asked to give up his role as Chief Strategist of the Clinton Campaign; Mark, and Penn, Schoen and Berland Associates, Inc. will continue to provide polling and advice to the campaign.
Geoff Garin and Howard Wolfson will coordinate the campaign’s strategic message team going forward.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/mark-penn-resigns-from-cl_n_95323.html
#235
Pancho
273 js
That’s great news. Condie would hitch the McCain wagon to Bush irretrievably, and she’s as thick as a brick. Break out the champers if Macca is dumb enough to go with her. Currently Romney is the favourite who would actually be a pain in the neck for the Dems IMHO. He could keep the neocons on Macca’s side and mobilise their voters although the fundies still would be out in the cold.
This is a great article which should remind us how much we owe William for running this blog.
Running a blog is compared to working in a sweatshop!! Except the pay is worse.
In Web World of 24/7 Stress, Writers Blog Till They Drop
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/technology/06sweat.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.
Also, add on SDs being announced all the time. Two more for Obama over the past couple of days, bringing Hillary’s lead down to 25 according to: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
More “superdelegate momentum” for Obama (numbers from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/ )
Obama leads in Governors, Senators, and Add-ons
Clinton leads in Reps, DPLs and DNC (but her DNC lead is shrinking rapidly)
Superdelegates by Position (w/o Michigan and Florida)
Position Clinton Obama None
Gov. 10 13 8
Sen. 13 17 18
Rep. 73 71 77
DPL 10 3 6
DNC 138 110 150
Add-Ons 1 6 69
Total 245 220 328
Last Updated: 4/6/2008
Why would McCain take Condi on as his VP? About the only thing the woman has done in the last 4 years is gallivanting around the globe to appear at the top of aircraft steps waving hello followed a day or two later by her on the same steps waving goodbye. I’m don’t know what they do with her between appearances – certainly there’s been precious little to show for it – but I hope they take the batteries out to save power.
MayoFeral -
she plays piano too.
Oh yes, and organises deadly invasions of sovereign countries leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of innocents.)
#275
Diogenes wrote:
Yes and no.
Something that the article fails to address is the subject of scalability and management. The vast majority of blogs are run as ’sole proprietor’ operations – and that is very much the case here at the pollbludger. This ’sole proprietor’ model is simply not scalable and we can see evidence of this here over the last couple of months in that the scope of the topics has extended from domestic traffic to the US primaries. With this expansion the level of attention to comment mediation has dropped dramatically resulting in the questionable banning of a number of regular participants. But a layer above this are two competing functions – on one hand you have the ‘blog entry value proposition’ and on the other hand you have ‘the community’. In the case of the US Presidential Primaries theme – the blog entries are not the driving force – instead the driving force in the community – GG, Jen, KR, Diogenes, RB, EC, etc., etc. oh, and the Finns, and Ron, and everyone else who is not immediately springing to my mind just at this very moment.
The solution is plain old simple management. First of there is no reason why pollbludger could not be administered my multiple contributors. This in and of itself would have resolved many of the prior issues (ESJ, davidoff, etc.) simply because people following threads would have been aware of the context and would have dealt with things at much earlier stages. Secondly, granting editorial rights to people like KR or GG would generate an environment wherein the value of the blog entry would increase – and the tone and focus of things would be more distributed – but this is where things change from the individual to the management of a community.
If William drops dead from a heart attack tomorrow – one hypothesis would be that he failed to address the questions of scalability. William – feel free to throw me under the bus if you disagree.
277
newy stats Says:
And another one since then …
From the New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07caucus.html?_r=1&oref=slogin\
Obama: 221
Clinton: 245
Difference: 24 advantage Clinton (and dropping)
JS and NS, see my 256.
Since Texas and Ohio the change has been about 5 delegated. I only hope the momentum towards Global Warming was this slow. At this rate, Obama will possibly achieve a majority by Christmas 2010.
Nothing new, the campaign is stalled until Pennsylavania and the other Primaries in a couple of weeks.
#282
Greensborough Growler wrote:
On this – we agree.
Penn falls on his sword, (proving the sword is mightier than the Penn?):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/us/politics/07hillary.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…another ruction in Camp Clinton.
#256
Greeensborough Growler Says:
April 6th, 2008 at 9:15 pm
GG – don’t worry – we have solutions.
http://www.getoverobama.com
Results of Senate elections in Zimbabwe announced. Zanu PF 30, MDC (Tsvangirai) 24 and MDC (Mutambara) 6. The spilt in MDC cost Opposition 4 seats with first past post voting.
There are 33 other Senators – 5 Senators appointed by the President; 10 Provincial Governors and 18 chiefs – 16 elected by fellow chiefs, plus the President and Deputy President of the Council of Chiefs ex officio.
So sorting out the Presidency is now the major task. What will be the next tricks employed by incumbent Mugabe.
If this campaign has hit the ‘horse latitudes’ as James Carville once called them, then it looks like Hillary has just turfed (pun!) her biggest nag overboard:
…we are locked in a campaign that is difficult for Clinton to win and near impossible for anyone to end. Small wonder there is a feeling that, with the Pennsylvania balloting still more than two weeks away, the Democratic race is in suspended animation. During a similar static period during Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign, I recall James Carville showing up in the bar at the Capital Hotel in Little Rock late one night quizzing every reporter in sight about the “horse latitudes.” Carville was not prepping for a correspondence-school exam in meteorology, but trying out a metaphor (and a good one at that) for a campaign that had become becalmed like the clipper ships of old, where the only alternative was to throw the horses overboard to reduce weight and pick up some wind.
This time around, it is Hillary Clinton desperately praying for the political winds to propel her out of the doldrums. But barring a Clinton string of victories through West Virginia on May 13, the weather reports are all Obama.
Salon.com
285 junior senator-
you should have warned me that George C. was on there – now I’m doubly enthralled , nay, in fact I’m about to pass ou………
Jen:
Forget about George (except for that excellent piece in ‘O Brother, Where Art Thou?’)- the real question is Jenny Depp – is he Clinton or is he Obama?
s/Jenny/Johnny
What do you mean ‘forget george”?!!!!
As for Johnny , I am going to assume that all the drop dead-gorgeous stars are going with Obama, as he is the newest fashion accessory available.
Jen:
Think of is this way – for the average alfa male entity – George is OK – he has weaknesses – he is human whereas Jonny Depp just makes life really difficult!
Clinton dumps the Penn from Pennsylvania (and beyond) and you guys start a fan blog for some Hollywood actors?
Am I in the right place, or what? LOL
JS, I don’t think it would be a bad idea to hand over comment moderation of the US threads to somebody else. However, I’m not sure how or to whom: all the participants I can think of are highly partisan in one way or another, so giving various people mutual powers of enforcement over each other would merely take the problem to a different dimension. I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.
Sorry Kirri – slow news week, Penn’s dumping and all. Till Hillary steps a side nothing much is going to happen IMHO, as no matter how well she does in Pennsylvania she is not going to outperform Obama – besides she is so covered in mud now that she is unelectable.
William – I think oyu do a great job with this disparate and unruly group that we are. I suspect handing it over to any/all of us would lead to gang warfare on PB.
Js – Johnny is indeed a problem for you mere mortal males, however no one does a hairnet like George.
You Clinton fans will be pleased to know that even the most ardent Obama admirer such as me can be appalled at this
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_gun_dance.html.
the madness of America encapsulated.
The best way to handle this board is to warn and ban trolls.
I do not feel that the banning of Davidoff was warranted, compared to some of the previous behaviour of other known trolls. Many times the trolls provoke crossfire by posting numerous personal insults instead of reasoned argument.
It doesn’t take much browsing through these last few threads to see who the trolls are. Unfortunately, there are thousands of posts and good luck to anyone who has the patience to wade through it all.
There are certain posters who contribute absolutely nothing to threads here bar personal insults and it certainly amazes me the amount of latitude they receive compared to Davidoff. Consistency should be the key in determining punishments.
Whilst I believe in freedom of speech and am more then happy to get into a flamewar with those that have little other purpose to their lives, it really detracts from the overall quality of analysis on these threads.
I believe certain double standards exist here which happens in real life such as the ABC board. Whilst its good to have a range of opinions, there is a difference between a logical reasoned opinion and a mere rant. It doesn’t take much to see which is which. Nevertheless, this is William’s board and he does a good job to ensure that order is somewhat maintained without being overly restrictive.
asanque-
the odd rant is good for the health. Lots of the stuff on here is off the point and often quite silly (guilty) but for the most part it is entertaining. There are occasions where posters get out of line I agree, but generally someone tells them to pull their head in.
I dont know much about running sites such as this but it seems a fairly onerous task given it runs day and night every day. I also guess there is a certain amount of behind the scenes action where posts are banned and we never see them and perhaps email complaints to William which we dont see.
I doubt that such a group of strong opinion people would readily accept regulation by others who they are strongly disagreeing with. Equally the current situation tends to encourage a level of “irresponsibility” from participants in that people can push the limits and rely on William to set the rules. But William, what happens when you want a holiday or just need a break. There does need to be a backup system of editorial people.
Also a legal issue of reponsibility – effectively we would need to have a responsible collective who would answer for any issues with regulation, defamation etc.
William – you might provide look at providing a checklist on the website for people as to what is unacceptable behaviour and how to avoid your intervention. (labelling of others as “trolls” is hardly an objective business from my reading). Also perhaps some info on costs and how people can help make site ongoing viable?
298 – Jen
Whilst I like a good rant just as much as anyone else. There is a difference between a rant and stalkerish abusive behaviour. I only need to point out ESJ and his obsession with your photo.
Obama’s Achilles’ heel, From Time:
“Patriotism is, sadly, a crucial challenge for Obama now. His aides believe that the Wright controversy was more about anti-Americanism than it was about race. Michelle Obama’s unfortunate comment that the success of the campaign had made her proud of America “for the first time” in her adult life and the Senator’s own decision to stow his American-flag lapel pin — plus his Islamic-sounding name — have fed a scurrilous undercurrent of doubt about whether he is “American” enough”.
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1727502,00.html
Obama May Not Have Fully Contained
Damage From Ex-Pastor, By NICK TIMIRAOS
April 7, 2008; Page A4
Sen. Barack Obama’s Philadelphia speech on race relations last month seemed to put the controversial remarks of his former pastor behind him. But three weeks later, there is evidence of lingering damage. “It has not been defused,” says David Parker, a North Carolina Democratic Party official and unpledged superdelegate. He says his worries about Republicans questioning Sen. Obama’s patriotism prompted him to raise the issue of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr.’s remarks in conversations with both the Obama and Clinton campaigns.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120752539182393613.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
#296 – they shoot horses, dont they? in Chicago.
Finns
give me Obama’s problems over Billary’s and Bomb Bomb’s any day.
Mark Penn gets jettisoned at a crucial phase of Hillary’s losing campaign and Finn wants to flog a dead horse like Wright!
That is hysterically funny!
Mark Penn was a liability for Hillary in any case.
He’s glad that he still is in charge of polling and gets paid, but gets the added bonus of disclaiming all responsibility once Hillary loses.
Remember, Mark Penn was in charge of the wildly successful, small states and caucuses don’t matter strategy.
Greetings PBers. Having been away from the screen for a few days, I skimmed the intervening posts – which gave a sense the tidal flow. I have to say, the Hillary supporters are more and more like the Black Knight from the ‘Holy Grail’. After every new blow – be it another bad Pennsylvania poll (all of the recent ones), another Clinton campaign resignation (M Penn), or another Hilary lie exposed (the hospital tragedy), the responses are along the lines of: “’tis but a scratch”; “just a fleshwound”; or “c’mon then, I’ll bite your legs off” and similar samples of contrived hope for a lost cause.
Never mind, you Black Knights of the Blog, there’ll be plenty of room for you on the Obama bandwagon when Hillary drops out.
As to the “Great Southern Concession Date Challenge”, these are the current entries as best I can tell. Correct me if I’m wrong:
Valid Entries (all Hillary to concede):
JV : 23 April @ 1000
Jen: 24 April @ 1000
Dyno: 24 April @ 1400
EC: 25 April @ 0900
HarryH: 7 May @ 1200
Pancho: 8 May @ 1200
Ferny: 3 June @ 2145
Asanque: 10 June @ 1400.
Prize Bottles so far 6 in total, from the very generous: Jen, Ferny, EC, JV, Dyno, Diogenes*
*By the way Diogenes, if FernyG doesn’t take all of those superfluous, space-taking bottles ….
It’s amazing how the so called intelligent people can miss the point completely. Obama’s Patriotism is being questioned. Who’s talking about Rev. Wright.
Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel – Samuel Johnson
306 – And what’s your answer to that question Finns?
We’re going to miss you arseanque the troll.
Oh look here’s the Green Grinch again with his always worthwhile contributions to this blog.
Look just how much he contributes with his incisive wit and commentary.
Its often been heard that the Green Grinch practises his zen art of commentary with Miss Teen USA of South Carolina, but has so far failed to win a single debate.
Miss South Carolina quotes “he is like creepy”
GG, I’ve asked you a number of times not to make comments that amount to nothing more than abuse directed at other commeters.
Finns – Johnson’s observation put another way:
“Many a bum show has been saved by the flag.”
~ George M. Cohan
As we observed here in Aus with the Tampa election.
In the US, though, perhaps this is more appropriate:
“God and Country are an unbeatable team; they break all records for oppression and bloodshed.”
~ Louis Buñuel
William here is a prime example of when you fail your duty to crack down on stalkers and trolls.
If you don’t set an example and punish the Green Grinch for his consistent and flagrant moronic posts, you condone this misbehaviour and its constantly repeated.
Is this the type of blog you are aiming for?
Questioning his ‘patriotism’? First it was his colour…black enough? Then it was his religion…is he Muslim? Then it was his pastor…is he too agro? And now it’s his ‘patriotism’?
Oh, Finn, spare me!
Better question his bowling score for all the relevence it has! LOL
KR,
It comes back to your magic word “character”. This issue will not be wished away.
Please don’t lecture me about my “duty”, Asanque – the meaning of which I don’t think you understand terribly well.
316 – William
You don’t have to do anything, its your blog.
However, in the last 3-4 threads you will find multiple examples (at least 5) of the Green Grinch attacking other posters not including myself without any provocation.
You will also find posts from other blog users sick of the nonsense he spouts and saying they will not post again.
I question your judgment in allowing a post like 173 to remain which is offensive in any respects.
I also question your judgment in banning Davidoff.
However, as I said it is your blog.
I am happy to also stop posting here if you feel it appropriate to allow users to attack other users constantly without repercussions.
We all bear the consequences for our own actions, and you can either take in constructive input or not.
Your call.
gee, these Obamaphiles are a sensitive lot.
Finns
Isn’t the Grand old USA the “Land of Hope & Glory”?
Aren’t Obama’s catchphrases “The Audacity of Hope” and “Yes We Can”?
Doesn’t sound unAmerican to me.
He has a small racism problem to overcome(which the Wright issue plays to) but this is mainly in GOP voters anyway. Obama more than makes up for this with his positives…as the turnouts and new registrations suggest.
He has far less negatives and far more positives to carry into this election than Billary and Bomb Bomb.
The reason I haven’t deleted 173 is that I don’t think there’s much point. Blog comments have a very short shelf life: everyone who was ever going to be offended by the comment already has been, and deleting it won’t change that. I do agree that it should have been deleted (or better yet, not posted) in the first instance. In the same circumstances, I never deleted the comment by Davidoff that indirectly led to him being banned. He was actually banned for wilfully refusing to do what I asked of him, which I will always do every time it happens.
HarryH,
More the “Audacity of Hype”.
“Yes we can” is the catch cry of kindergarten aged children in response to the Bob the Builder song. Hardly a catchphrase for the political savvy.
Obama has brought race to the forefront. And racism is not restricted to Republicans I can assure you.
Obama’s drug use has not begun to to play out. Trite nicknames for other candidates is no substitute for reasoned debate.
320 – William
Great. So by agreeing that it ’should’ have been deleted and not deleting it, you set the strongest possible message that this type of behaviour is not acceptable.
I’ve enjoyed my time posting here William and I appreciate your efforts in maintaining this blog. I’ve been posting here since Mid-2007 and have made a donation in the past.
As a final gesture of goodwill, I hereby dedicate any wine prize (from jv and others) won due to my prediction of Hillary conceding in June to William Bowe.
However, obviously its time to move.
Goodbye folks, its been great blogging with you, and there have been too many good posters to name. I’m sure I’ll see you on other forums in the future.
You know what is the only real tedious and shitty thing about running a high traffic blog (well, apart from lawyers)?
Dealing with people that “demand” some comment be removed, or “demand” that some commenter be banned.
Billbowe goes to extraordinary lengths to run this place well, he puts enormous amounts of time into it and deserves far better than to have people whinging at him to do this and do that from arsehole to breakfast time. Be thankful that you have the place at all!
This is politics folks, passions are strong, heads are harder and often brains get quite soft upon occasion – If the thread doesnt go the way you like it and some evil jellybean is picking on you – well tough luck, suck it up and move on. Have some one humping your leg – welcome to political discussion everywhere.
Be nice – it’s efficient. When you slap, do it with a smile.
But dont poke the Billbowe with a tedious stick… it can bite.
Deleting the comment would send no message at all, because nobody would notice.
Thank you for coming, and all the best for your future endeavours.
Solidarity, Reg …
Sorry if you’re ‘going finish’ Asanque – if you don’t have a change of heart, thanks for your posts, and good punting.
Asanque
just keep posting your thoughts on politics. They’re good.
every persons posts on here are a reflection of them and no-one else. William will handle the rest.
just don’t fall for the baiting tactics of a persistent old attention seeker.
it’s quite easy.
I see Asanque has put his cue in the rack. So long and best wishes. A song that perhaps epitomises our relationship.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPDNGtr1ar8
how does the saying go? if you cant stand the heat, then get out of the blog. what a cry baby.
Pancho at 276: “js – funny stuff. If McCain chooses Condi, the election will just be a referendum on the war. Bring it on.”
Spot on , Pancho. Condi is a total PNAC, Project for a New American Century facilitator, the lovely folk who turned the “opportunity” of 9/11 into the bs war on terrorism, and for the glory of Moloch and Mammon through war profits and spigot access, pushed and spun the invasion and occupation of Iraq.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_for_the_New_American_Century
These are not nice people. The rogues gallery with mugshots is worth a quick squiz. (scroll down ornithorhynkus-paradoxus page)
http://www.platypuspool.com/axisofevil.html
Many of these schmucks were on hand to hear Howard’s address in Washington a few weeks back.
WB at 294: “I still think my own benevolent dictatorship is the least bad of the available options, even taking into account that my eye isn’t always on the ball.”
Yup, but we love it when you have your occasional after hours little absences, William. There’s been some wonderful discussions on History, Literature, film and life matters that could be at best described as “tangential” to the topic of Sep. politics, yet amazingly, when you crack the whip most of us instinctively know what will happen should we transgress further.
http://cache.viewimages.com/xc/3336108.jpg?v=1&c=ViewImages&k=2&d=4DAA13B573E1BD2FF802CC1DDA9073D0A55A1E4F32AD3138
EC @ 330,
No purring yet, but a definate smile.
Cheers
This one is out of the blue (or darkness?) from the Jakarta Post:
Islam ‘recognizes homosexuality’
Homosexuals and homosexuality are natural and created by God, thus permissible within Islam, a discussion concluded here Thursday.
Moderate Muslim scholars said there were no reasons to reject homosexuals under Islam, and that the condemnation of homosexuals and homosexuality by mainstream ulema and many other Muslims was based on narrow-minded interpretations of Islamic teachings.
Siti Musdah Mulia of the Indonesia Conference of Religions and Peace cited the Koran’s al-Hujurat (49:3) that one of the blessings for human beings was that all men and women are equal, regardless of ethnicity, wealth, social positions or even sexual orientation.
“There is no difference between lesbians and nonlesbians. In the eyes of God, people are valued based on their piety,” she told the discussion organized by nongovernmental organization Arus Pelangi.
“And talking about piety is God’s prerogative to judge,” she added.
“The essence of the religion (Islam) is to humanize humans, respect and dignify them.”
http://old.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20080328.@02&irec=1
But what happens, Grasshopper, when the pointy bits of a “Classic Pincer Narrowing” actually touch each other?
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/06/arg_poll_deadlocked_in_pennsylvania.html
This is getting particularly ugly for the candidate who once cavorted topside a 28% spread!
————–
Jolly decent of you at 331, GG.
There was a time when anything George W Bush said about the Middle East, and his grand plan to install democracy there was dutifully reported. Remember his “democracy from Baghdad to Palestine”?
Well, it looks like he got it right, except in reverse: Baghdad now resembles Gaza.
Sadr City has been cordoned off, as they lob missiles into the Green Zone killing the odd person there, and then the US bombs the crap out of them.
And all the while John McCain is talking about ‘victory’ in Iraq, like he’s got any idea what it even means, but he’s going to have a long time to explain how this remotely resembles it.
Enemy Combatant, those links are all very amusing. However, here is a reality check:
1. Whatever you might think of his policies, McCain is no idiot. Only an idiot would ask Condaleeza Rice to join them on the ticket in tis political climate. Contrary to what the liberal-leaning US mainstream media would have you believe that McCain has just about no good options, there are least half a dozen excellent options and another half a dozen decent ones after that;
2. It has to be said that McCain is, from the point of view of the Democrats, polling disturbingly well in places like Oregon, Washington, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, among others. Furthermore, I’m talking about the respectable polls by orgs like Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and Insider Advantage, not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids;
3. I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out, however the polls this early out in 2004 proved to be a remarkably good guide to what happened on the first Tuesday in November (in the US that is, not in Melbourne);
4. Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;
5. What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).
Seems to me that once again the Democrats are well on track to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Then again, they are experts at it – just once since World War II have they exceeded 50% of the popular vote. Conversely (and I may have to stand corrected), I reckon there are only three times since WW2 when the GOP has polled less than about 48%, and for 2 of those three you have to factor-in a little fellow called H. Ross Perot
At this stage, 7 months out from polling day, it would seem the possibilities range from Democrats by the narrowest of margins to a solid victory falling something short of landslide.
I look forward to being amused by the shock everyone expresses around the world when low and behold the Republicans retain the White House yet again. Pity for the United States though
What I meant in penultimate para of last post was solid victory for McCain
Chris from Edgecliffe,
I have ben waiting for your arrival.
Welcome to the cauldron.
336 Chris
I think the odds at the moment of Obama at evens and Macca about 11/8 are about right. The huge turnout at the Dem primaries is very encouraging but the longer it takes Obama to haul in the nomination, the closer the odds will get. I don’t think Hillary will give up until shortly before the convention, by which time it will be line ball. If she were to chuck it in after Pennsylvania with the promise of Senate Majority leader or New York Governor, and go into bat for Obama the current odds would be pretty close.
301 Finns
I thought “patriotism” would be a problem for Obama but this poll shows that he is considered the MOST likely to share American values. Here are the other main findings.
*Fifty-three percent of voters think John McCain’s policies would favor the rich. Thirteen percent say the same about Barack Obama.
*Eleven percent of voters are very confident that John McCain will make correct decisions about the economy. Forty-two percent are not confident. He’s the worst-rated of the three remaining candidates in this regard.
*Sixty-nine percent of voters (Democrats and Republicans) expect Barack Obama to win the Democratic nomination.
*Fifty-six percent of Democratic-primary voters think Obama is better able to beat McCain in November. Thirty-two percent think Clinton is.
http://www.slate.com/id/2175496/
Chris – all interesting points, but most could do with a challenge.
Reports are that Condi is actively canvassing. You say that only an idiot would accept Condi, but surely this is only because of her foreign policy positions. McCain is more gung-ho than Bush (and by extension Condi) so I don’t think it all that far-fetched that he would consider her.
With regards to his frontrunning options Charlie Christ and Romney each have their problems with the Republican base. Most others would need months of introduction. I don’t think his options look all that flash.
Yes McCain is polling well, but he has no opposite, the Democrats are not advertising against him yet, and he is not being challenged on his gaffes. Further the press is almost wholely focussed on the Dems race, and there is the issue of bad feeling in the Dems camp at the moment which will inflate a McCain vote against either challenger.
In 2004 there was a sitting President who was campaigning against a party in flux with all the advantages of the Office. This time around, the Democrats are on the advance and hold both Houses. They have better organisations, and McCain does not wish to use the trappings surrounding this particular President for obvious reasons. I think the situation is wholely different to 2004.
No one could totally dismiss these polls, but remember every time there is a divisive nomination process we see similar. There were times in 2000 where over 50% of McCain voters said they could not vote for Bush. When the press tightened its focus on a partisan race, they flocked back. The Democrats will probably do the same when they focus on McCain.
While the DNC is not raising much money at the moment, Obama has revolutionised fundraising. He has raked in something in the order of $150 million this year alone. Clinton has also dragged in a pile. This is not money that will disappear – if need be it will go back to the donors with a request to pass it on to a third party. In addition to this the RNC is in dire financial states, and McCain has not managed to sign up a whole lot of Bush donors as yet. The Dems have a great advantage at the moment with regards to cash.
I think all of your points are fair, but there are also reasons why the Dems, even without a nominee and with a fighting going on, are still the short priced favourites for November.
#339, Amigo, i seem to remember that there is a saying that goes like this: “Maturity is when you feel you are right but you dont have the compulsion or feel the necessity to prove someone else is wrong”.
Finns, I’m sure in your mind that aint a non-sequiter. Good on you! I applaud creative thinking. But for the record (and I know it must be getting tiring to admit with ammo running so low) politics is a battle of interpretation and ideas. I got no proof here, just opinion. And again for the record, I’m happy to share, and receive response
.
On the immaturity front, I am looking forward to that jig.
Edgecliff Chris,
1/ “McCain is no idiot.”
Especially when Joey “The Rat” Lieberman is there to whisper tactical mis-spoke modifications in his ear.
2/ “not the crappy polls analogous to those that appear in the Aussie tabloids”
No reason to get excited, Chris, Citizen Rupert has deigned that Shill Shanahan is always on hand to provide “The Correct Broadsheet Interpretation” of any toshy tabloid polls.
3/ “I know its dangerous to place too much weight upon polls this early out,” (it’s, pull-ease)
Chris, Confucius said that amateur psephologists who placed “too much weight” upon “early polls” were treading on thin ice and soon for serious chilling.
4/ “Do you totally dismiss those polls that suggest thousands of Clinton supporters will stay home if Obama gets the nomination and vice versa? I certainly wouldn’t;”
Vice versa does not apply here, Chris. Are you not aware of Ecky’s Law? The Annals of Pseohology are rife with his wisdom. Ecky’s Law states: “Whomsoever of Brutusina’s followers do a dummy-spit homestay on Nov. 4 will be countered numerically by previously non-voting eligibles who buy Obi’s audacity of hope pitch.”
5/ “What sort of war chest do you think the Republicans are building at the moment while Hillary and Barrack go 15 rounds? (I ask the question rhetorically).”
Chris, (may I reply to your rhetoric bustfully?)”……….. looks like a double D-cup to me. And, mate, it’s “lo and behold”. Have you ever considered attending a refresher course at St. Apostrophe’s Acadamy for the punctuationally challenged?
Dead set, you’re a walk up start.
Oh, good grief, been pre-fisked by Pancho. Beautifully done, son.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fisking
And isn’t it lovely that Growler has now got somebody to pal around with.
Latest Board-Odds from Cbet.
President – WINNER
The Kid (firmed 5c overnight) 1.85
Johnny Bomb-Bomb (steady) 2.85
Brutusina (drifted 50c overnight) 5.00
But best of all, Chris, if you slightly modify you handle to Edgecliff Chris, there will be two ECs on this blog:)
I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes under the principle of “command responsibility” for the torture interrogations. My prayers may be answered.
Andrew Sullivan: Bush Administration Officials Will Be ‘Indicted For War Crimes’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/06/andrew-sullivan-bush-admi_n_95305.html
Using the RCP poll list for the the Obama/Clinton Penn contest:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html
What I found interesting was the change in the spread over time.
Here’s what the spread looks like (with Clinton positive and Obama negative) as a simple time series where all polls make up the actual line.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/04/penntimeseries.jpg
But this is what they look like when the series is spread into its individual pollsters, where the “obs” at the bottom stands for ‘observations’ and is just the number of the poll in that RCP list, with the latest poll being the 41st observation.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/04/pennspread.jpg
It shows a clear movement for all pollsters toward Obama over the last little bit, and is the only time in Penn that those polls cover which so a unanimous movement toward Obama.
This one looks like it will be tougher for Clinton than she ever imagined a place like Penn would be.
oops – “which saw a unanimous movement toward Obama”.
Typical, I buy a vowel, get the wrong one and end up short changed of a consonant to boot.
CFE,
Great post. Got the munchins running everywhere.
Who do you think will win the Democrat nominaton?
Who is the most likely to win the POTUS?
#341 – Amigo – [I am looking forward to that jig] – i also seem to remember in our uni days, there was another saying that “why wait until November, fail now and avoid the rush”.
A couple more salient quotations suggesting that the concept of patriotism in elections has had a run before. It is clearly going to get a run in this election too. They’ll try to wedge Obama on it (just like JWH & Co wedged Beazley and Latham, and tried vainly to wedge Rudd, on Iraq, terrorism, and the war on boat people).
Over to Hermann Goering, President of the Reichstag, Nazi Party, and Luftwaffe Commander in Chief:
“Naturally the common people don’t want war: Neither in Russia, nor in England, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy, or a fascist dictatorship, or a parliament, or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country.”
“When a dog barks at the moon, then it is religion; but when he barks at strangers, it is patriotism!”
- David Starr Jordan
The dogs will keep barking at Obama on both issues, but I don’t think the current US dogs have teeth sharp enough to hurt him:
Off topic, but you might be amused, as I was on the weekend, by the Byron Shire Echo’s front page for April 1 – a parody of The Australian. Mungo MacCallum does a regular column in the Echo, a fiercely independent paper, and I wondered if he might have had something to do with that front page.
http://www.echo.net.au/pg.php?pg=01&issues_id=22_42&view=gif
Albrechtson and Shanahan are obviously in trouble!
Diogenes @ 343 [I’ve been banging on for a while about Rumsfeld et al being indicted for warcrimes]
I hope so. – I read an article in the New Yorker on the weekend about Sabrina Harman, who took a lot of the pictures at Abu Ghraib. It is a most unsettling article/interview. At this link is the article and there is a link from there to the pictures and video of some of the interview as well. Breathtaking that not one senior officer was ever punished for what the army knew was murder as well as torture, or torture gone wrong, at the prison, including some by the CIA, let alone the grotesque photography.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/24/080324fa_fact_gourevitch
jv @ 349
I note that Errol Morris co-wrote the article. He is the best doco maker I have seen. A string of masterpieces from Fog of War to Thin Blue Line to Gates of Heaven. No-one captures pathos the way he does. And the Philip Glass soundtracks add a poignant inevitability to the films.
Diogenes @ 343 – While it sounds promising the reality is there are few countries that would risk the wrath of the U.S. by arresting any of the Bushites for war crimes and those that wouldn’t be intimidated are unlikely to act given their own appalling records.
The odds on Howard et al facing justice are better, though still very slim. I know of one legal group actively pursuing this.
Diogenes – The NY article is excerpts from this book:
‘”Standard Operating Procedure”, a book written by Philip Gourevitch and Errol Morris to be published by Penguin Press on May 15, 2008.’
I like Philip Glass – I have the soundtracks for The Hours and Koyaanisqatsi in the car. The latter is rather unusual, but its atmospherics work well in the car.
Tectonic, Mayo; the inching, meanwhile Mochy rules eh?
jv @ 348 – the Byron Shire Echo – aka North Coast Australian has a weekly circulation of 22,700? Heck, that would have to be more than the other Australian, wouldn’t it?! Maybe it’s they who should be taking over News Ltd!
Two years ago or so, Glenn Greenwald euthanased his original blogspot to take up an offer to write a regular gig for Salon. In 2006 his book “How Would A Patriot Act” went from nowheres-ville to No. 1 on Amazon in a matter of days from release, solely on the strength of “word of mouth” on the blogosphere. This feat was akin to leaping publishing/marketing Everest in a single bound.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glenn_Greenwald
Great to see him getting a guernsey on HuffPo to publicize his latest book.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/glenn-greenwald/great-american-hypocrites_b_95317.html
Grenwald is one of the political blogospheres’ greats. Mind like a steel trap and writing that’s smoother than Shanghai silk.
Dio at 343, share your enthusiasm. The journey to justice begins with these significant first steps. The MSM have stiffed this story for years. This is not so much a can, as a mega-vat full of worms, and a mess of early-bird truth-vultures have begun to circle.
Jv and Dio, here’s another superb NYer essay about Abu Grahib from Sy Hersh in 2004.
http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2004/05/17/040517fa_fact2
And yes, one hears Mungo’s resonance all over the Echo article.
Thanks, Poss, for the Penn charts:
Da girl “dead”!!….. only she don’ know it yet!
You can tell by the look on her face that “death” was always gon be a surprise to her ass! (Richard Pryor)
Good to see you back, codger, you dodgy doggerelist!
Hope asanque has a good night’s kip and a rethink and soon rejoins us as well.
When I first went to LP, I got my blog butt whupped bigtime and suffered many a ding to my pride. Had a little spell, got over it, re-jigged my approach and now really enjoy popping in there from time to time to learn, share and play.
Oh dear, she’s done it again. What a run of bad luck Hillary’s having with the truth. I think there must be a vast truth conspiracy against her:
“In Oregon, Clinton Makes False Claim About Her Iraq Record Vs. Obama’s”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/in-oregon-clint.html
EC – thanks for that article – bedtime reading.
MayoF @ 354 – The Byron Shire Echo should rule the media world, for sure.
Ta EC; but reserve my right etc…(powder dry option)
Good to see your toga neat & tidy!
#301
The Finnigans referenced a Time article detailing Obama’s Achilles’ heel.
#349 jaundiced view posted a reference to an article detailing life inside Abu Ghraib. Around page 9 is the following comment …
Finns, I was just thinking that maybe character and intelligence trump the gross stupidity of blind ignorant patriotism.
A new Pennsylvania poll from American Research Group, Inc. is out.
Clinton: 45%
Obama: 45%
Other: 4%
Undecided: 6%
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-704.html
ROTFLOL – only in America!
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/clinton-the-boys-made-me-tough
Decay is slow motion ..
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/04/proclinton-cuomo-loses-spokesm.html
Finns – your #301 comment just bounced back into my line of fire (again).
I wasn’t even thinking about you – it was just another one of those articles I was reading in which this patriot thing came up and this time it was patriotism linked to that Wright guy – and so naturally you just appeared in my imagination – sort of with a ‘plop’ sound and a 301 sign branded onto your forehead – but I’m digressing …
Here is what someone called Bob has to say on the subject.
Keep in mind – I’m just an observer on the sidelines – but don’t you find it funny that the word ‘patriot’ can on one hand point us to greatness, and on the other hand can point to the terrible darkness of humanity. I guess what I’m really thinking is that anyone posting about ‘patriotism’ should think deep and hard about the consequences and implications of that word.
BREAKING NEWS
For everyone who loved the West Wing – this is classic.
And the last not for the evening …
Today’s Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama a nine-point national lead over Hillary Clinton, well outside the margin of error. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:
Obama 52% (+3)
Clinton 43% (-3)
And here comes another superdelegate for Obama, clearly pissed off with the Clinton behaviour:
The collapse of the large Clinton lead in Pennsylvania has been confirmed across several recent polls now:
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/its-a-race-in-pennsylvania.html
Not included in the above is the latest American Research Group poll which showed a tie. (see j/senator’s link @ 361)
If Hillary were to lose Pennsylvania, then surely she wouldn’t carry on. It would be one Black Knight limb too many.
Good morning Bludgers , happy to be back & looking forward to the warm welcome, after Labor projects & sojourns
j/v , Clinton concede for the Party & give up a mathematical chance of POTUS ! An ivory tower view of politics. Heavyweight Pollies including your precious Obama think of their ambition first , always have & always will.
What you fail to realise is through US voters eyes rather than Aussie ones , is without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama & made him the Nominee already. But then you still misunderstand US patriotism to the Aussie version & the current & future Pastorgate relevance to it
369
jaundiced view
Although to be realistic, there’s an awful lot of white working class voters who’d vote McCain before they’d vote Obama, so Hillary Clinton is still more than likely able to win PA. But if she can’t get her lead into at least double figures she’s going to see even more of the shine (what’s left of it) rub off.
Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.
With Penn falling out, her money problems getting worse, it’s likely the internal morale of Camp Clinton will wipe the rictus grin off her face and get her to confront what she’s been avoiding, ie, that she cannot win. And as more of the Supers drift to Obama every week, the slow drip drip will have to crack her.
“the slow drip drip will have to crack her.”
You are joking as usual. Hillary has ‘ticker’ so she will not crack . She will only concede when ‘politically’ she thinks the game is up.
However “Ticker’ is one of the question marks now up for question about Obama after Pastorgate.
The only relevance of Pensylvania is if Hillary can win another big State by any margin & the momentum effect of the final margin on the number of SD’s that then commit
G’Day, Gang, that bloody Wiley guy who does Non Sequitur has etched himself upon my brain. He bad, Bludgers, he bad!
What should you tell your precociously politically-aware child when she asks:
“Daddy, can you give me two good reasons why Senator McCain is unelectable?”
“Well, Sweetie, my pop always used to say that a picture saved a thousand words.”
http://www.cagle.com/working/080404/sack.jpg
……“And Senator McCain is publicly very close to disgraced President George Bush. Some folks have called Senator McCain an “Imbecile Hugger” which is downright impolite but sometimes a person has to speak plainly to make the point.”
http://i57.photobucket.com/albums/g205/1267659/mccain_bush-hug-713122.jpg
“…….and the two of them wear the same coloured trousers and shirts, even their fashion accessories (belts and ties) are the same style and colour.”
http://www.truthdig.com/images/eartothegrounduploads/mccain_bush_hug_300.jpg
“Oh, yes! Thank you, daddy, I get it now. Senator McCain is a Try Hard.
He’s got no chance!”
This article points out the correlation between how the SDs endorse and whether their state is Obama or Clinton. There is a strong correlation. And there are more uncommitted SDs in “Obama” states than “Clinton” states. So the undecideds would have to go against the pledged delegates, the popular vote AND their own states vote to even give Billary a sniff. I just cannot se that happening.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/unpledged_delegate_projections.html
greig @ 370 –
In a big vote of confidence in Mark Penn, the Hillary Deathwatch actually IMPROVES her chances by 0.5% to 9.3% due to her throwing Penn under the bus.
http://www.slate.com/id/2188400/
374 without the html stuff-up:
greig @ 370 – [without Pastorgate most SD’s may already have voted in mass for Obama]
Yes, Hillary would stay until political death. I just think it has already happened. The remaining SD’s seem to be getting restless, and with 3/4 plus of them going Obama’s way, before and after Pastorgate it doesn’t seem that beat-up changed anything at all.
As to patriotism, of course the Repugs, and also Clinton in the short remaining period of her candidacy, will push the patriotism button a lot, but that’s just standard fare for all elections. Obama can take that – he’ll be teflon coated because of the overall climate for change (like Rudd was). The patriotic dog-whistling will be muddied waters anyway due to the Iraq war being a stinking electoral swamp. The ’super-patriot’ neo-cons have made patriotism an unsettleing pursuit with a lot of voters, and it won’t resonate nearlyas much as usual. (Remenber the Vietnam political wash-up?)
If you don’t believe me, have a look at soldier Sabrin Harman’s quote on what patriotism meant in Abu Ghraib, from an interview in the New Yorker – at j/s’s post @ 360 . No-one, not even Americans, can warmly embrace patriotism when it is represented in images like those of such inhumanity. And there’s more to come on all of that during the campaign.
KR – [if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run]
Agreed – even 10% in Penn will be half the Clinton expectations of a couple of weeks ago, and the momentum will stay with Obama, while Hillary bleeds to death through the truncated stumps of her four limbs.
Greig, more pastorgate? You don’t know our special friend (R/r)on do you?
The Superdelegates are coming out one by one because they want to be seen to be making an independent assessment and decision on who is the parties best nominee. If the SDs move as a block it will put one supporter group or the other offside as it will be seen that the machine has conspired against one candidate or the other.
Let’s not play these I have a finger on the pulse of American sentiment and you don’t, games. That was the good Dr Carr’s belief and he came a cropper.
On a tangential note, here are the first five headline articles on the Sydney Morning Herald site at the moment:
Shark Attack: teen dead
School machete rampage: 101 charges
Incest father’s daughter traumatised
Child hero as bus driver leaves brake off
Mother keeps healthy son in wheelchair
…spot a theme?
Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.
God save us, if it’s not already too late.
377
TurningWorm
Ah, Das Wunderkind, we do miss his insights so! And I’m still pining for more of his slapping now that Hillary is obviously winning the nomination.
Us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ have so much penance to do, eh?
KR @ 378 [Welcome to ‘dumbocracy’ when that’s considered ‘newsworthy’ enough for the front page big print headlines.]
Don’t worry KR, the Byron Shire Echo is on the move into the mainstream
j/v , its Ron greig by the way.
You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.
Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.
It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card
My personal view of US ‘patriotism’ (whilst I think its over the top) is irrelevant
j/v , its Ron greig by the way.
You misunderstand the point. You present an Australian eyes view of US peoples patriotism. Through alot of Australian’s eyes the over the top US patriotism ra ra is bull at best. To alot in the US the ‘military’ and the ‘flag’ are almost sacred , even despite of their distaste of the Iraq war.
Trashing these sacred points may be unimportant to you & alot of Australians. But you are not a US voter who do care particularly an independent one. McCain has not even fired a shot at the subject….yet , but the future ads will be plentiful.
It is why Obama had to refer to Patriotism etc. in his Philly speech in a contest against just Hillary who had not fired any real shots at it.
Obama’s dual problems will be McCain will fire real shots and Obama has played his Philly speech already & cann’t easily repeat it. Its political point scoring & US patriotism is a strong card
380
jaundiced view
I look forward to Mungo’s Billinudgel view of the world going mainstream, but seriously doubt the rest of Australia will! LOL
God spare us this tripe. I think the intertubes have a lot to answer for in lowering the already diminished national IQ a few more points.
j/v ,
will reply to your blog from my view of US patriotism . Its Ron greig by the way
Here we go again, another Bludger with an identity crisis! What is it about this site that stimulates otherwise seemingly sane indididuals to lose track of themselves?
KR,
“Conversely, if Obama pegs her well under 10%, then his campaign has triumphed, and starved her of oxygen enough to virtually end her run, and once again confirmed his Big Mo.”
A triumph of mythematics. You win by not being thrashed by as much as you expect. Is that a straw argument I see being built?
Oh, and I notice today’s “willy willy” tale of alleged SDs turning to Obama has arrived early. Nothing has changed! You guys are like Glen Milne looking for the dirt on Rudd. There is none, but that doesn’t stop him(and you) banging on about it.
not sure if the compliment was directed at me,
but Mrs…..(followed by the bloggers names here) would enthall spouses and amuse the kids.
GG, still flogging that dead horse Hillary eh?
She’s losing, behind, unable to get to the line ahead of Obama and PA was her last ‘big state’ to take with 20 plus points. But it now looks likely she’ll squeak it in, again.
So tell me how that’s going to get a deluge of Supers onto her side? Hmmm? It won’t, and as each week goes by, her campaign looks more and more moribund. She ain’t winning anything, not the nomination, and not against McCain.
Toast. Buttered side down.
KR,
Ready to show me 2025 eh?
Obama is boast. With all that hot air spewing out, I suspect him and his supporters are the real cause of global warming.
Popcorn season starts again soon.
Bring it on Ecky, bring it on!
I note, with wry amusement, that the driveling-idiot Bill Kristol is saying that Hillary is finished and the Obama machine has quite a few Republicans crying into their beer that they’ve got old McCain running (well, figuratively at least) against this phenomena.
But like all prognostications of Billy he draws the wrong assuptions, and he concludes Obama can’t win against McCain! LOL
That’s it folks, in the bag. One thing is certain in this world, if Bill Kristol says McCain is going to win against Obama, then you can bank on that being wrong; he’s got a perfect record in getting things arse-about.
GG @ 390
Neither side can show the 2024 delegates until the convention when they actually vote. Hillary has repeatedly said that the pledged delegates are up for grabs so even 2024 PDs would not satisfy her. Using your argument, we wil have to wait for the convention before the Dems have a nominee.
Does there get to be a stage where the chances of Hillary winning are so remote that you think she should concede? 10%, 5%, 1% or 0.001%.
Turningworm @ 377 – You picked r/Ron’s subterfuge in one! Well done.
r/Ron/lower-case greig @ 370 – You got me in on false pretences; I didn’t pick the false flag before I returned fire!
GG @ 387 – the magic 2025 will be reached from the 349 supers as yet uncommitted. Obama will need about 122 of them on current primary projections. That’s 34%. So Hillary can get up to 65% of them from now and still fall short. Over the past couple of months, Hillary’s support rate has been 22%.
The link is at Diogenes’ #373 post. Check it out yourself.
Mythical? What is mythical is the unsupported faith that the current rate of Hillary’s SD support can be reversed. Where’s the evidence for that? In Hillary’s fantasy-packed mind?
Poor Hillary – f*cked in the head, and f*cked in the campaign.
GG, j/v and all – I’m pretty sure the magic number is 2024 as things stand. Some movement in the indiscernable SD world removed one from outside MI and andded one more to MI. So current maths that I have seen has 4047 up for grabs and 2024 needed to win. These numbers will of change when Hillary can no longer argue against the 50/50 split for MI and/or something is worked out in FL. Of course, this may be a while, seeing as the Clinton tactic seems to be to drag out the resolution of these states as long as possible.
Also, Dr Jekyll and Mr. Ron, what’s going on up there?
Also, the Clinton capaign is managing to derail its derailing. Have a look at the ghost of Mark Penn, still trying to screw things from the side of the road: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/penn-speaks-in-private-wi_n_95508.html. Whatever (I was going to write ‘all you Clinton supporters’, but let me just try) GG, Finns, and Ron think of her as a politician, you must admit her campaign and strategies have been just awful. I’m not sure how such a performance fills you with the confidence you seem to have in what she would do in November.
And it looks like Wolfson is involved in the union-busting Columbia dealings too: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/clinton-colombia-ties-don_n_95525.html. Could she lose the unloseable in Pennsylvania?
Hey! I’ve got some backup:
“In the days and weeks ahead, the Barack Obama campaign is going to pose a simple question to the undecided voters and undeclared superdelegates who will decide the Democratic nomination for president: If Hillary Clinton can’t run a good primary campaign, how is she ever going to run a good campaign against the Republicans?”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9436.html
Seems like a fair argument to me.
Any retractions from the Hillary Haters here. http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/is-hillarys-muc.html
Politics isn’t fair, is it GG? That is what happens when you establish bad character traits with bad political impulses. Hillary is now established, in the minds of punters, as a liar. If she tells one side of a story, and someone else another, she will not be believed. As has happened here. She has continually lied and cheated, been pulled up on it, and is branded by her own actions now.
There is a hitch in Obama’s packaging as the race candidate post Philadelphia. As the Hitch called “Obama Is No King” –
“The thing that this gaggle of cranks and parasites has in common is the extreme deference with which it is treated by the junior senator from Illinois. In April 2004, Barack Obama told a reporter from the Chicago Sun-Times that he had three spiritual mentors or counselors: Jeremiah Wright, James Meeks, and Father Michael Pfleger—for a change of pace, a white Catholic preacher who has a close personal feeling for the man he calls (as does Obama) Minister Farrakhan………. So amnesiac have we become, indeed, that we fall into paroxysms of adulation for a ward-heeling Chicago politician who does not complete, let alone “transcend,” the work of Dr. King; who hasn’t even caught up to where we were four decades ago; and who, by his chosen associations, negates and profanes the legacy that was left to all of us.
http://www.slate.com/id/2188414/
More to say about the “packaging” of Obama later as perspiration and inspiration mingle, mangle , tangle and tango.
GG – and here’s another porky from yesterday in case you missed it:
“In Oregon, Clinton Makes False Claim About Her Iraq Record Vs. Obama’s”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/in-oregon-clint.html
Pancho,
It seems your morals are as dodgy as your maths.
The contest is not finished. Don’t come bleeting when the Obama Boat sinks with all hands. Politics isn’t fair.
Cheers.
GG – sorry boss, it is. And I won’t.
Some Hitchens context. His response to 9/11:
“In order to get my own emotions out of the way, I should say briefly that on that day I shared the general register of feeling, from disgust to rage, but was also aware of something that would not quite disclose itself. It only became fully evident quite late that evening. And to my surprise (and pleasure), it was exhilaration. I am not particularly a war lover, and on the occasions when I have seen warfare as a traveling writer, I have tended to shudder. But here was a direct, unmistakable confrontation between everything I loved and everything I hated. On one side, the ethics of the multicultural, the secular, the skeptical, and the cosmopolitan. (Those are the ones I love, by the way.) On the other, the arid monochrome of dull and vicious theocratic fascism. I am prepared for this war to go on for a very long time. I will never become tired of waging it, because it is a fight over essentials. And because it is so interesting.”
What a fat, self absorbed prick. Because it is so interesting. That is his public response.
Hitchens rants against either candidate should be dismissed, purely because he is a completely politically discredited moron, who assumes that a purple pen is a worthy substitute for a brain. He can no-longer wage his upper-class trotskyite wars so has fallen in with the other bad-boys because of some sort of personal insecurities that require him to behave like a pompous bellicose fool. He has no credibility whatsoever.
403
Pancho
That’s the unctious side of Hitchens that truly revolts me, and how he gets from that ‘war of civilisations’ (which it IS NOT), to a tragic invasion and occupation of Iraq is beyond me.
But speaking of Iraq, and of course the general election in November, let’s remember that before November comes October, when elections are supposed to be held in Iraq.
Now, some people have assumed that Maliki’s ‘pre-emptive strike’ against the Sadrists in Basra was to nobble them well before the election, and so get some control of the south where currently he has very little. It’s also argued that Cheney put him up it, but I’ll leave that for history to decide. What we can say, categorically, is that it was an unmitigated disaster for Maliki and it’s raised Muqtada’s stocks even higher.
But here comes the point: if Maliki tries to veto the Sadr bloc from even contesting the election (which he’s threatening to do!), all hell will break lose, and once again, the US will be propping up the undemocratic forces (hmm, sounds like familiar stuff), and all this will be coming right in the lead to the US election.
Can’t have that, eh? So, the strategy is becoming apparent: call night day, and to paraphrase: “blame,blame,blame…blame,blame Iran”.
To this end, Petraeus and Co. are about to descend on Washington to tell us the most improbable pack of lies, ie that Iran is backing Sadr! Anyone who knows even the most basic facts of Shiite sectarian differences will be able to tell you that this is absurd, and that Iran’s proxy in Iraq is the major groups who form the government. al Sadr’s Mahdi army is NOT, never was, and probably never will be Iran’s instrument.
Get ready for the propaganda to start flowing like water from the MSM, because if they cannot innundate Americans with this utter falsehood, then they are in all kinds of strife convincing them that there’s any ‘progress’ or even a discernable goal to achieve there.
Watch this space, it’s going to get very interesting.
Here’s some news to put some smiles on dials.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/04/08/possums-getting-married/#comments
Hey Ron! the White House is with you (with regards to eyewear anyway):
“White House On Iraq: ‘We’ve Thrown Out The Rose-Colored Glasses’”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/07/white-house-on-iraq-weve_n_95503.html
Ladies and Gentlemen.
There are some things which unite us all. We must STOP this climate change catastrophe. Beer is going to be in short supply and TASTE DIFFERENT. This would be the end of the world as we know it.
Oh the humanity!!
Climate change disaster – beer affected
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23505786-5006301,00.html
#404 Amigo – [Hitchens rants against either candidate should be dismissed.... He has no credibility whatsoever] – i asked this question before to KR to which he did not answer.
Now let me ask you. In order to spare our feeble, debilitated, delicate, effete, enervated, enfeebled, faint, frail, infirm, languid, low, prostrate, prostrated, sapped, slight, soft, softened, tender, torpid, unsubstantial, wasted, weakened, wimpy mind from contamination, corruptrion and pollution.
Please give us a list of commentators that you think we should follow, read and worship. And another list that we should avoid, eg: The Hitch, at all costs. very much oblige.
407
Pancho
Classic! So they can see, in full colour, when the Shiite hits the fan!
Finns, do and quote whatever you want. Spice of life and all that. Despite your wayward analysis and misplaced support of Hillary, I wouldn’t dream of giving you any sort of list to follow. Your struggle and arguments are amusing (to me, anyway). But the liberal impulse which doesn’t want to offer a list for you to follow, is the same part of me that reserves the right to critique garbage. I happen to despise Hitchens – that is my opinion. Above I made an attempt to contextualise why. I paid no attention to the bilious crap that he wrote about about Hillary, and haven’t to this latest serve about Obama.
I also think it is disingenuous to be attacking a guy one day and quoting him the next. This is not what I am accusing you of, in case you’re thinking of getting touchy again. But Hitchens has popped up on both sides of the ledger of late (generally with qualifications). So for the record, my position is laid out above. I think he is an intellectually compromised fool who is spoiling for a fight (see the 9/11 and Clash of Civilisations crap, alongside his Iraq stance), seeking some sort of meaning (check his religious anti-religion arguments), and cannot admit how wrong he has been, on so many fronts for so long. But like I say, this is just my opinion.
The thing about hitchens is that he’s just a controversy wh*re….He’ll just say what ever he can to make himself heard.
Well we have Kirribilli , a political lightweight trying to camoflage imadequacy by nselectively & changing ‘cut ‘ & paste’ finance info pretending to be a financial guru
Then precious j/v taking the ‘greig’ bait as was predictable.
And Pancho not quite understanding 2025. But implying Obama is other than a political novice having exposed his signicant Pastorgate problems publicly at Philly but inadequately , & then contradicting some publicly a week later has not given McCain damaging political amunition is absurd
Believing Pastorgate is not important to McCain is like saying Iraq is not important to Obama…the Obamabots blindness
Here you go Ron – 2024 needed. Like I said before, no biggie, just a fact at the moment:
“The number of delegates needed to secure the party’s nod fell to 2,024 because of several changes among superdelegates. The highest profile change was the resignation of New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer, who left office Monday over his involvement in a prostitution ring.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-03-17-delegates_N.htm
Pancho 414
It’s actually 2023.5. This may seem weird but is in fact possible. Dems Abroad delegates count as 0.5 each. Don’t quite know how that works on the floor of the convention.
Re Hitchens. Hate, like any emotion, is terrible for clarity of argument. Try feeling morally superior and contemptuous instead. It works for me!
Diog – it’s ok, there’s plenty of wine
Diogenes – I have seen 2023.5 on the demconwatch site, but I had assumed that this is a straight cut down the middle of 4047 – they were quoting 2024.5 previously. But I may be wrong.
Pancho says 2024.5 …..would not be a good figure
THEORETICALLY , 1012 for Hillary and 1012 for Obama
and a 0.5 person deciding
Ron,/ron/,R/ron-
you are not STILL going on about it are you??
Wherever you’ve been, surely you’ve had a chance to move on and get over it.
If we are blind my friend, you are stuck in the mud up to your nostrils. Hillary is all washed up and McCain hasn’t even been started on yet.
No I didn’t Ron. My understanding is 4047 total delegates, requiring 2024 for a victory.
This is the Maths Primer that the Obarmy Army prefer.
http://www.bookworm.com.au/shop/scditem.asp?ProdID=12617
Get used to it . Pastorgate will be news up to November & I will blog it.
Because McCain will make it an issue
Do you Obamabots want to stop the tedious Iraq comments against HRC and McCain or do you only want issues that suit the precious Obama
Ron – I don’t think anyone thinks that Wright will not be an issue come November. But surely you don’t think that Iraq will not be? When the whole Wright issue is an historical blip, the Iraq War will remain the greatest strategic blunder in US history, impacting on politics and international relations for decades to come.
KR @392, Bill Kristol is the only election-watcher I know who got the electoral college spot-on in 2004. He was also about 10,000 votes off a perfect prediction in the 2006 senate election (he only got the Allen-Webb race in Virginia wrong). A Malcolm Makerras he is not!
The article I think you refer to (the one I read as a link on realclearpolitics.com) seemed fairly even handed to me, although I concede Kristol is about as partisan as they come (but no more partisan than the likes of Begala and Stephanopoly who are wheeled out by CNN and ABC as non-partisan election gurus). You can make a strong case that barring an act of lunacy or cancer, McCain is home. You can also make a strong case to the contrary. The fact that you don’t like to contemplate the outcome Kristol predicts does not provide a legitimate basis for rejecting outright what he says.
Do you really believe Obama won’t cop a bucket-load between US Labour Day and election day? Of course the subtext to Kristol’s latter points are race and religion – it will make 1988 look like the most honourable election campaign of all time.
Where exactly is Kristol so outrageously wrong? Same goes for Hitchens (his electoral prognostications that is, not all the other stuff)
Glad to hear it Ron. Don’t let those dirty Obamabots get away with thinking that the crazy old rants of an aged war veteran are any less important than the deaths of thousands…..
The SF Chronicle calls for the Olympic torch relay to be cancelled. Makes good sense to me. It’s only a PR campaign and it is clearly not helping the Olympics PR campaign. Hillary is the candidate who is the most anti-China and has asked for Bush to boycott, which might be taking things a bit far but shows a degree of decency that pleases me.
Clinton urges Bush to boycott Beijing Olympics
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080408/ts_nm/usa_politics_clinton_dc
Extinguish torch before someone gets burned
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/04/07/BAGJ101E0E.DTL
To those who know better….
Is this a ‘vote-winner’ so to speak? I’d assume that the democrat base would be fairly supportive of such a stance….right?
Chris – where have Kristol and Hitchens been wrong? Surely you jest? Although I have not seen too many Hitchens electoral prognostications, I have not seen Trots in government, and his team seems to be badly losing at the moment. As for Kristol picking 2004 – come on. Even Shanahan was right for about 11 years. Picking the winner when you are incredibly partisan and your guy wins isn’t a great feat.
Where has Kristol been wrong? Well of late he has had to retract two NYT columns because of bad sourcing: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/kristol_bungles_key_fact_in_an.php, on top of being wrong about every step of the Iraq War, from WMD to the surge.
# 424 Chris from Edgecliff
valid points you make
Also iraq can end up being a 2 edged sword for both.
Further Obama has been quoted that after withdrawal , if al queda becomes a problem again , he’ll just go right in.. wow
Whatever, Hillary’s comments have upped the ante on the issue and there is currently a significant difference between her and Obama.
How it will play out in the polls? Could be the spark her campaign needs.
No doubt it would rile a few here if Hillary became the “candidate of principle” and voters flocked to her because of her strong character and moral fibre.
Here is a rundown of Kristol’s failed predictions: http://glenngreenwald.blogspot.com/2007/01/bill-kristol-pundit-superstar.html
He is not just a bystander here, but an embedded player. I wouldn’t take his predictions any more seriously than, say, Mike Moore’s for all the science that would go into the number crunching.
Ron comparing Pastorgate as an issue to the Iraq War as an issue:
GOLD
r/Ron@422
‘Get used to it . Pastorgate will be news up to November & I will blog it.’
Surely you mean flog it.
3423 Pancho , I agree with you that both Pastorgate & Iraq will be issues right up to november . BUT other Obama supporters do not agree with you.
Also , Iraq as said is going to be politically difficult for both Obama & McCain
Ron – Iraq is much easier politically for Obama. We are not talking about the ins and outs of intricate policy, or moral takes, but politics. Poll after poll has shown that the people of the US hate the war now. They have had enough. They have been constantly lied to about it and they want out. Obama is on a winner here.
GG @ 430.
I haven’t seen Obama’s opinion on China/Tibet. I’m guessing they are soft and fluffy though. I agree Hillary’s motivation is irrelevant to whether it’s a good policy or not. I think it’s great she is taking the moral high ground and hope she drags McCain, Bush and Obama there. It could be a great wedge! Good luck to her. The more things she does like this, and attacking McCain on the economy as she has recently done, the better her argument for staying in the race is IMHO.
Diogenes -
I want to see Obama be as tough on China as Hillary is, and if her positon forces his hand then all the better. Still think she’s done tjough – all they have to do is replay the Bosnia/ lying footage during the election. She’s unelectable.
GG @ 430 [No doubt it would rile a few here if Hillary became the “candidate of principle” and voters flocked to her because of her strong character and moral fibre.]
Precisely. Precisely. Spot-on. Nailed it. If only Hillary was a completely different person, and also could erase everything in her campaign so far, then we might have two candidates of ’strong character and moral fibre’. Of course, here on planet earth, it is Obama with the voters flocking to him for those reasons.
Perhaps Hillary could start wearing a mask – a wonderful magic mask projecting strong character and moral fibre, and honesty. That might work.
Diogenes ,
You should read your own links.
“Clinton’s Democratic presidential rival, Barack Obama, said he too was disturbed by events in Tibet and had communicated his concerns to Bush. But the Illinois senator stopped short of calling for the president to skip the opening ceremonies in Beijing.”
GG
Guilty as charged. These patients keep taking up my time. But my “soft and fluffy” prediction proved to be right!
Pancho @ 431
Kristol’s blatherings in the link you provided really outline the insanity of the whole Neocon world.
Their doctrine and belief is that “they can create their own reality”.
GG@430
it would not ‘Rile’ me if Hillary turned out to be a woman of principle and strong character. It would completely floor me.
Because she isn’t.
And the Straight Talk Express is about to go around a bend, press-wise. Good to see him copping some scrutiny:
‘For an advocate of straight talk and government transparency, John McCain has been less than clear with a voter-education nonprofit, on whose board he serves, about why he hasn’t responded to its survey of issue positions. Now, after nine months, 17 phone calls, and 8 emails asking McCain to state exactly where he stands on key issues, Montana-based Project Vote Smart is poised to kick McCain off its board.’
http://www.motherjones.com/washington_dispatch/2008/04/mccain-project-vote-smart.html
JV & Jen,
Old blogging saying.
“Never let facts get in the way of your prejudices.”
Grinch my friend- ever heard of projection?
A ‘West Wing’ Write Imagine the Showdown at the Democratic National Convention
http://nymag.com/news/politics/45786/
Absolutely brilliant. Will never happen, unfortunately. But it is gold. Go have a look when you’ve got ten minutes to kill – the script is five pages long.
Max
Agreed
That was well worth the read….
Edgey Chris
Kristol would be rooting for McCain even if Bomb Bomb was clinically dead! It’s neocon pathology at it’s most flagrant; whoever keeps the fantasy alive gets their vote.
Sorry, but Iraq is not going to win them votes in November, for all the reasons that have become obvious over the last five years.
If you can see the US economy in recession and the falling housing market inspiring the punters to vote for more leftover Bush policies you’ve got a remarkably inventive imagination.
It isn’t looking pretty, and the voters are going to be a lot angrier about being conned into war, and a 2nd term of Bush’s incompetance, than you can imagine.
McCain can do the mock patriotism all he likes, but when they’re taking out US corpses from the friggin’ “Green Zone” it’s bloody hard to keep saying you’re winning.
GG @ 444 [“Never let facts get in the way of your prejudices.”]
You are confused as to the meaning of ‘prejudice’. A prejudiced decision to support a candidate would be making the decision without considering the relevant elements.
It is not prejudice to enter a political situation with your mind open, and proceed to evaluate the options, considering all the pros and cons, and then express a preference for, say, a party or a candidate, based on rational thought. Neither is it then prejudice to continue to support that choice as long as they remain the preferred one in your mind, based on continuing rational analysis of the facts.
You should try it sometime. It’s safe to try it at home without risk of too much injury.
JV,
You understand the concepts of open mindedness and rational analysis but it is you that needs the practice.
Hillary’s position on China is new information that challenges your view of her, so you ignore it and talk about face masks. Hmm.
You and others pillory Hillary for alleged lying, but ignore Obama’s slipperiness. Hmm.
Have not seen any retractions today re the hospital “lies” which are apparently true. Of course you can rationalise your behaviour because she allegedly lied about other matters. Hmm.
There appears to be an invisible shield protecting that very “open mind” of yours.
But don’t worry, everyone is the same. I can deal with the hypocrsiy, it is the pseudo intellectual sanctimony that peeves me.
Cheers
GG – I know little about US China relations, so I can’t make informed comment about the various positions on China.
With regards to the hospital story and the lies there, here is what the story you are quoting says:
‘But a closer examination of the story Clinton was originally told indicates that while Clinton erred slightly in relaying the tragic tale, that doesn’t mean it’s not fundamentally true. On that, the jury is still out.
…I’m trying to find out more about this story — it’s not always easy when health records are involved, not to mention a grieving family who may already have some issues with the media.
But I will try, and report back to you what I find out.”
The story does not prove she is not lying. She has still offered misrepresentations. She may just have made mistakes in her portrayal in order to aid her argument. But on the form we have seen, Hillary doesn’t make those sort of mistakes. Again she has streched the truth for her gain.
Egdecliff Chris at 424: “I concede Kristol is about as partisan as they come”
Chris, do you really think that Bill Kristol is biased?
Ferny Grover Says at 416: “Diog – it’s ok, there’s plenty of wine”
Ferny, you havn’t been paying attention, mate. Dio took us on a wonderful tour of his wine cellar and donated a bottle of Top Plonk to our comp. He mentioned that he’s off vino, but it sounds like he doesn’t mind a drop of the amber fluid.
(very little escapes me on the Sep threads, FG:)
GG What about authentic intellectual sanctimony?
Hillary’s position on China is to be commended but one of the reasons she states for her anti-China stand is China’s reluctance to pressure Sudan regarding Darfur. For one thing, my understanding (from Human Rights Watch) is that China’s foreign policy has been improving in the human rights area but it still sucks within China.
More compelling is that Bill Clinton has gone down in history as the weakest President ever in condemning genocide let alone intervening. Half the State Department in charge of “problem areas” resigned during his reign due to their disgust at his spinelessness in allowing genocide to happen without comment in Bosnia, Rwanda and Srebrenica. I realise that Hillary is not Bill but she is going to have to take the good with the bad when she argues that she had a role to play in foreign affairs.
KR, you are looking at the US election from a remarkably Australian-centric point of view. To state the obvious, voting in the US is not obligatory. Millions of educated people like you don’t even bother voting.
While it has become a cliche, and is admittely a generalisation, nothing gets out the vote like gods, gun and abortion and other hot button issues like that. Its radically different to what motivates the average Australian voter. How else do you explain how it is that all those Republican voters suddenly materialised on election day and delivered Bush a reasonably comfortable victory? It is the social issues and not Iraq that mobilises where it matters in the US.
How many Americans have you spoken to lately? I deal with highly educated Americans every day with my job. The majority of them don’t vote because they are too busy with work, they don’t care, they presume the result is a foregone conclusion, they sulk because they don’t like the candidate their party is up for and so on.
Ever thought about what a major inconvenience it can be for people having to get to the polling booth, cue for at least an hour and add 60 minutes commuting time during a working day when polls close between 7 and 8 in all but a handful of states?
Kerry and Gore did not even get close in the Old Confederacy, Florida excepted. I say Obama has no hope in Florida this year for a variety of reasons that have been reported on. So what hope does Obama have south of Mason-Dixon? That’s about 170 out of 270 e.v.’s. Then you add the mountain states save New Mexico and the mid-west. Doesn’t leave the Dems much margin for error, and it is precisely this that keeps bringing them undone election after election.
Why sure, Iraq will cost the GOP votes and millions of them….right where it doesn’t matter, in the big cities of California, the mid-Atlantic and the NE and the university towns.
I’m not saying this election is over but the confidence that you and numerous others have about the end of the GOP grip on 1600 Pennsylvania is as amusing as it is misconceived
EC @ 452: in answer to your question, well of course
But what is really funny is that people like you wouldn’t find people like David Marr, Kerry O’Brien, the latest wanker fronting Media Watch and Tony Jones from Latteline biased. Not for one minute, would you?
454 Chris
Is it true that the more educated population are less likely to vote in the US? It would really explain the last two elections.
I think that in Oz, if voting became voluntary, it would favour the right wing of politics as many of the embattled working class would not bother but I have no data to prove that.
Suggested viewing on this topic: “Jesus Camp” and “Bowling for Columbine” – just go to the doco section of your nearest Blockbuster or Video Ezy or whatever
454
Chris from Edgecliff
That was then, this is now: nearly $3 trillion vapourised housing value is about to focus those too lazy to vote middle class folks.
Where this time really is different is that two terms of Bush and a recession like no other (yep, it’s true, they are starting this one with low employment growth, massive debt, and no home equity!) and just look at Democrat turnout and enrollments…they are off the scale.
Tsunami time for the GOP. Just watch.
GG @ 450 –
Para 1 -Too much open mindedness and rational analysis is barely enough around here, I agree.
Para 2 – you’re wrong on that. Hillary’s ‘position’ (or ‘positions’) on China doesn’t challenge my view of her, or many others’ opinion if you look a the blog below this article:
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/04/07/866169.aspx
Para 3- Hillary’s ALLEGED lying?? You must kidding, GG. Obama’s slipperiness? It’s all relative in this sort of thing of course, but he hasn’t grown scales yet, as has Clinton.
Para 4- Having been ’shot at’ in Bosnia, she shot from the hip on the hospital. Bad form blurting out hearsay without verification (still not verified) – T. Abbott-like, and likely to cause collateral damage among the family members.
Paras 4 -I think I’m safe on hypocrisy. None found on my scans after your so probing examination (do you have any alien friends?)
Para 5 -Very pleased to see that my ‘pseudo-intellectual sanctimony’ is hitting its target. It’s a smart bomb.
Chris fe,
KR has a point. Bush senior was done over in 92 partly because of the S&L fiasco which left many middle class borrowers owing more than their houses were worth.
This scenario is playing out again in trumps with the added bonus of a recession.
Whether the punters blame the Republicans and McCain specifically is hard to say at this time but the economy will be an important factor in this election.
Another thing, Edgey Chris, apart from the huge turnout for Democrats in the primaries, plus the massive fund raising both candidates have achieved, there’s the recent poll saying that an unprecedented 80% of US citizens think the country is headed in the WRONG direction.
I’d contend that previous elections have not been held under such conditions and many of your assumptions based on them will not hold in 2008.
(By contrast, the GOP is weakening on so many fronts, and even the god/gays/guns twaddle will not resonate against the serious issues they face. Besides, McCain has p1ssed off a lot of the god squad and the social conservatives in the past and will not be able to bring them all back).
Fascinating time ahead.
I think my “Pseudo Intellectual Sanctimony” take on matters or (Pis take as we call it around here) has obliterated the target.
Mission Accomplished!
I think we all agree that if Bush was up for re-election that it would be a bloodbath with an all blue US. But McCain is not Bush. The Dems need to paint Macca into a corner of being McSame and they’ll win. If not, they’ll lose. It’s going to be a fascinating dance to watch Macca embrace the Bush legacy’s voters without embracing his policies.
Gg @ 462 – No GG, you have a long way to go before you get Hillary’s nose in front.
By the way GG, why didn’t you enter the Concession Date contest? Small heart problem??
Yes, we’ll have to agree to disagree, but KR I wouldn’t be changping your posting name to DCRemovals just yet
465
Chris from Edgecliff
I’m more than happy to disagree, and keep my moniker too! LOL
Diogenes, I think Obama has already started on that line, with his ‘a third Bush term’ in reference to McCain.
A portent of things to come?
http://online.wsj.com/public/article/SB120753339432393979-sTooXFocgtswKTyUmDWCnvXofEA_20090407.html
A safe GOP seat in the HoR that has been held by the Republicans for the last 21 years, but they’re running a candidate with a connection to a former KKK leader and has been fined by the FEC against a conservative State Representative from the Dems who is expected to appeal to cross-over Republican voters.
Also big to note is that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee apparently has $38 million on hand, whereas the National Republican Congressional Committee only has $5.1 million.
If things don’t start to improve for the GOP quickly, KR’s prediction of a tsunami may be understating it a bit. Remember that the Senate and HoR elections are also on November 4. With the current Senate being split 49 Repub, 49 Dem and 2 Independents and 23 Republican seats up for reelection to only 12 Democrats, it wouldn’t take many seats to change hands to change the entire complexion of the Senate (and destroy Lieberman’s current influence). With the current polling in Virginia (which is a Republican Senate spot up for reelection), the signs are not pretty for the GOP.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/virginia/election_2008_virginia_senate
JV @ 464
1. Have said before that I do not bet on things that talk.
2. Don’t necessarily believe that Hillary will be doing the conceding.
Heart is fine. Mind is clear. Life is great.
Cheers.
Well I don’t think there is much doubt the GOP is in for a shellacking in Congress, particularly in the Senate where there is a disproportionate number of Republicans retiring or in “blue” states with difficult re-election campaigns ahead of them. The general consensus among the US psephologists who know what they are talking about (Charlie Cook, Larry Sabato etc) is that anything less than a net gain of about 4 in the Senate and 12 in the house for the Dems would be a shock.
Having noted the above, the contest in Virginia isn’t exactly bellwether – the Dems have their best candidate possible, a very popular recent governor, while the GOP in Virginia is hopelessly divided. The networks will be calling the Virginia Senate race at 7.30pm on election night…as soon as the polls close.
KR, the definition of a “landslide” in US presidential elections is usually a winning margin of about 10 points or more. So what’s a “tsunami”?
Anything more than 50% for the Democrats in the presidential contest would be a truly momentous result for them as this has only happened twice since the war and not at all since 1964
anyone predicting that Nov. will even be close has lost their marbles.
things have changed so much since 2000 and 2004 it’s not funny. and none of it in the Republicans favour.
There WAS a tsunami in 2006 and since then you can add a recession.
Goodnight GOP.
454
Chris from Edgecliff Says:
KR, you are looking at the US election from a remarkably Australian-centric point of view.
It is why politcal logic runs into their closed minds.
Iraq is chaotic , Wall Street had a meltdown. Obama is perfect.
But the Polls at best for Obama vs McCain show a draw.
Seems the voters DO have doubts about Obama…and McCain will have fertile ground to attack this guy of contradictory words
HarryH
The worst thing that happened to the Dems was getting control of the House and Senate back. It made them responsible for the disaster the country is in, not as much as Bush. As my Growling Friend would say;
“Each man’s death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.”
Clinton solemnly pays her respect to MLK. Or not.
http://qlipoth.blogspot.com/2008/04/hi-how-ya-doin-wow-fun-to-be-here.html
Dio @ 472,
I think that is a good point.
And McCain is a career outsider (or at least that’s how he has positioned himself, whether it’s true is debatable).
Betting markets have McCain at about a 1/3 chance and that seems a fair assessment at this point. Dems well in front but the race is far from over.
#472 Diogenes
I agree Diogenes. Which is why the economy meltdown can more easily be blamed by McCain on “Obama’s Democrats” , rather than vice versa.
A blame game free for all.
however the US voters will wish to blame a Party & the Democrats control Congress from which the legislation had to come from.
Unfortunately the lot of them collectively are responsible for their ‘effectively unregulated free enterprise system’ which was only saved (perhaps only temporarily) by the Feds bailout.
Dio
getting control of the House and the Senate hurt Clinton.
it didn’t hurt Obama.
i believe the GOP were dead for 2008 by 2005. The Dems were good things and so was Hillary Clinton as the next President. However she made a fatal mistake by listening to her pro-war insider
Washington power base and refused to listen (and even took on) the anti War anti Washington Dem primary voter base.
This left an opening for Obama and he has run a masterful campaign.
His message is change…….
change from Bush
change from McCain
change from the GOP
and yes
change fron Clinton
change from the Democrats who have so disappointed since 2006.
it is all about change.
the do nothing Democrats since 2006 have been a boon for Obama’s campaign.
Al #467 : “destroy Lieberman’s current influence”
almost the worst kind of politican and when just scrolled back to read them , I
thought of the ‘anti-lieberman’ pollie who sadly just passed away , John Button
In the days and weeks ahead, the Barack Obama campaign is going to pose a simple question to the undecided voters and undeclared superdelegates who will decide the Democratic nomination for president: If Hillary Clinton can’t run a good primary campaign, how is she ever going to run a good campaign against the Republicans?
And while she says she is ready from Day One to be president, she is at something like Day 430 into being a presidential candidate and her campaign seems to be going from bad to worse to train wreck.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9436.html
HarryH
“the do nothing Democrats since 2006 have been a boon for Obama’s campaign”
you lost the plot there. Yes it helps against Hillary WITHIN a Democrats contest ,
but in the POTUS election its not Democrats vs Democrats but vs Repugs who’ll claim to use your own words ‘the do nothing Democrats’ should have prevented the financial meltdown. mcCain would love to quote your own words
Ron
good luck getting the Republicans off the hook for the disaster they’ve created.
80% not happy with the direction of the country.
good luck.
did not like your own words quoted eh HarryH
just to remind you said #476
“the do nothing Democrats since 2006 have been a boon for Obama’s campaign.”
which included Senator Obama ! (and Hillary).
McCain would love your words. but as I’ve always added a caveat , if iraq becomes more chaotic either Democrat would win
Let me throw the obamabots a freebie:
He lost his political nous 9maybe Rove was it) & with it made 2008 risky for the GOP because he did not try to influence iraq elections to be held in 2009 after the POTUS election but would have required long term planning i guess
Ron
let me explain it to you.
NO Republican was ever going to get elected after 8 years of The Idiot Son.
So the 2008 presidency was there for a Democrat to win. Hillary was that Dem until she misread the Dem primary voters. The very people she snubbed with her ProWar ProWashington stance are the very people who have run grass roots campaigns for Obama, who have delivered her a hiding in Caucuses etc.
Up until the 2006 elections , Dem voters thought ANY Dem candidate would do as long as its not the Republicans in power.
After seeing the do nothing Dems since 2006, a significant portion of Dem primary voters thought hang on….we want change here, not do nothing.
Hence Obama’s position today.
After the Dem nom is settled and Obama is the candidate offering change…in an election where 80% are unhappy with the direction of the country, after 8 years of Bush and Republicans, after Iraq, after the pathetic Katrina response, after a recession……it will be a comfortable victory.
476 HarryH
Unaccostomed as I am to going in to bat for Hillary, I think Hillary’s support for the Iraq War has been overstated here (as has Obama’s somewhat fortuitous opposition). I read a neocon anti-Hillary book which whinged incessantly about Hillary’s lack of support for the War. She was very equivocal and seemed to flip-flop in her support and condemnation of Bush almost daily, presumably to fit the political context.
And I also have to agree with Ron (may the Lord have mercy on my soul!). Who do you think are going to fill the Cabinet posts in Obama’s Administration. All those useless do-nothing Democrats.
Between them, the two party’s have about $50M already. That buys an awful lot of finger pointing.
I wouldn’t be to arrogant remember good old Diebold Election Systems. One of the reasons Hillary is a bad choice. Support will need to be widespread and not too concentrated. The republicans just need to create enough doubt that a rigging is just believable enough. i wouldn’t count on Florida or Ohio or even Missouri/Virginia. The democrats will certainly want to win Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada. Plus 2 Nebraska votes as insurance. They should also throw the kitchen sink at Colorado.
Diogenes , they say the Lord has mercy so you’re right.
Your contrariness but frankness always is refreshing.
Pity the POTUS election does not talk about non oil regions like Darfur & Ruwanda with equal time spent but there’s unfortunately no votes in humanity causes
Ron
I’ll repost something I said on an earlier thread.
From Samantha Power’s book “A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide”. The most cynical quote I’ve ever seen.
During the Burundan Genocide in 1972, the US demonstrated it’s complete indifference to genocide as usual. About 100,000 died. One junior official in the State Department urged his boss do more to stop it. The reply was a chilling;
“Do you know of any official whose career has been advanced because he spoke out for human rights?”
Nice.
Great news! – some humour might come into the general campaign.
“Monty Python legend John Cleese is to offer his services as a speechwriter to Barack Obama if he wins the Democratic nomination to become US president, he told a British newspaper.
…. if Barack Obama gets the nomination I’m going to offer my services to him as a speechwriter because I think he is a brilliant man,”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/cleese-offers-to-write-obamas-gags–a-hrefhttpwwwsmhcomauuselection2008indexhtmlbmoreba/2008/04/08/1207420387432.html
Cleese should be able to give Barack some Black Knight one liners, plus a few fantasy world and alien references in the meantime for his sensible use while Hillary’s still hanging on:
This old ditty from Monty Python would be a good starter to work into one of Barack’s early speeches in the general campaign, to help set the tone for pleasing all those important minorities:
http://www.intriguing.com/mp/_scripts/arab.asp
Doc, I think you’re about 20 years or so early on the date, and yes, it was the quote of a homo sap whose humanity was long dormant.
Thanks William – I should have just used the link in the first place.
That’s great jv! And maybe ‘don’t mention the pastor. I did it once, but I think I got away with it…’
Soldiers for Obama here:
http://abcnews.go.com/WN/Story?id=4244798&page=1
And a good bit on the Clinton campaign and Penn here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/penn_the_symbol_of_clintons_pr.html
Glen Greenwald’s stomping on some GOP myths (again!), this time, the nonsense about Americans wanting to stay in Iraq. Who says they do? The usual neocon suspects. Who says they don’t? The overwhelming majority…that’s all:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/04/08/gallup/
KR – As Dick Cheney said when questioned about an earlier poll in which two-thirds of those questioned said the Iraq war is not worth it: “So?”
Maybe McCain would find that response harder to give from where he’s sitting.
But the more the old hardliners say that sort of thing to those sorts of polls, the more McCain is wedged, and the better it is for the Dems. So keep those polls coming.
#486 Diogenes ,
the words leave me sadly empty
492
jaundiced view
The Armed Services Committee gets to quiz Petraeus today, so it should be a very interesting news cycle. Of course Petraeus is well in Bush’s pocket, but the recent flare up with al Sadr has shown how little they’ve really been able to influence events.
Breaking news is that al Sadr is threatening to call off the truce, and that means a quick return to all out confrontation and lots of street fighting which the Iraqi army has just demonstrated its unwillingness to do.
Should be a very interesting day in Washington, huh?
It should be KR – I’m getting the impression that Petraeus might not be as positive as in his the last report. If, as you report, the situation devolves via al Sadr to a worse level of chaos and anarchy through to November then McCain is cactus. I can’t see what strategy there is to stop the deaths. The only way to prevent the death of US soldiers is to pull them out now, and the Repugs won’t do that. How many sh*t sandwiches will McCain have to eat in the campaign about his 100 year strategy at every US body count?
Pancho @ 490 The troops don’t seem too full of that ingrained gung-ho American patriotism we discussed last night either. Imagine soldiers in uniform stating openly they will vote for that Obama! That would be seen as downright treason by many Republicans. There is a looming similarity to the latter stages of Vietnam. What soldier wants to be risking his or her life in prosecution of a war unpopular at home? The only thing saving the Repugs from more outspoken comments by soldiers on the ground – like in Vietnam – is the rigid control of the media in Iraq so far, the ‘embedded ‘concept. That might unravel though if the attitude of the soldiers worsens, and become another source of embarrassment for McCain.
Another confirmation that the narrowing is on in Pennsylvania -a Quinnipiac poll that has Clinton ahead by only 6%. The RCP average (which still, for some reason, hasn’t factored in the recent ARG poll that had the two candidates tied) slips down anothe 1/2 a percent to 6.1%.
For the late nighters and insomniacs, live blogging of the Petraeus/Crocker gig:
http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/watching-the-iraq-hearings-with-petraeus-and-crocker/index.html?hp
…ah, the intertubes are all glowing.
Robert B – They have the latest ARG poll with the tie in the full list, but there is an asterisk beside it. No idea what that signifies.
Pancho #490
At the time over a few blogs you were putting an interesting argument which I wanted to see where it lead.
Your Hillary link is consistent with earlier critiques of Penn , went for big States
which i’ve previously said seemed to misunderstand basic mathematics about winning delegate numbes. Then Howard like Hillary , relied on an alleged expert strategist Textor in 2007 but after reading their ‘advice’ it was miscalulated his opponent entirely.
Robert #497
Obama has narrowed late in almost every Primary for a variety of reasons Pennsylvania should be no exception. Unless obama wins it , both candidates will ’spin’ their story , leaving the uncommitted SD’s to decide
jv
2 soundbites that will kill McCain in the campaign are his 100 year comment and the comment that he doesn’t know much about the economy.
Ron, spin or no spin, if she wins Pennsylvania by only 6% and he wins North Carolina by the current RCP average of 17% then, even given the most optimistic of scenarios in the remaining primaries she’ll need over 70% of the remaining SDs. That would sure take some spin.
Harry, I’m with KT on McCain. A bloke called Sadr in Iraq will blow him out of the water by November rather than anyone in the Dems.
HarryH @ 501 – [2 soundbites that will kill McCain in the campaign are his 100 year comment and the comment that he doesn’t know much about the economy.]
I reckon John Cleese is working on those 2 little gems for Barack’s speeches already. I’m sure comparisons to the duration of the British Empire will be made, for a start.
R Bollard @ 503
i agree Iraq will kill McCain.
it has also killed Clinton though IMO
Robert , agree it would take alot of spin !
But the SD’s should have already moved in bloc and haven’t partly one assumes because of some doubts about Obama’s electability. Politically they have to ‘live; with their decision. I have considerable electability doubts as well.
however having said that , the pinzer movement of dropping uncommitted SD’s must be making them very uncomfortable.
As to “A bloke called Sadr in Iraq will blow him out of the water by November rather than anyone in the Dems.’ That may be so. However he will judge that on his interests & maybe they include the current ‘chaotic’ status where a Democrat will get the US troops out giving him more licence rather than making the status ‘more chaotic’ & risk over playing his hand into the POTUS election.
How can one read a mind like his
JV#504 I reckon Cleese may work some spin off on a certain other 100 years war. Of course McCain is a veteran of that conflict so it may be too sensitive.
One liner questions can be double edged. Everyone can retort.
Given Senator Obama at Philly CONDEMNED Pastor Wrights anti American slurs yet sat silently for 20 years with alleged convictions disagreeing with those Pastor views, question:
If Obama with his convictions can not stand up to a Pastor’s convictions ,
how as POTUS is he going to stand up with his convictions for the American people ?
it might be like Willesee’s quetion to Hewson on the GST in a cake
Mornin’ Bludgers,
Johnny Bomb-Bomb lets wife know who’s boss after a harrowing day on hustings.
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/McCain_temper_boiled_over_in_92_0407.html
Johnny Bomb-Bomb’s hair-triggered, misogynistic over-reaction immediately recalled:
“Kill The Badger
At Los Alamos Ranch School, where they later made the atom bomb and couldn’t wait to drop it on the Yellow Peril, the boys are sitting on logs and rocks, eating some sort of food. There is a stream at the end of a slope. The counsellor was a Southerner with a politician’s look about him. He told us stories by the campfire, culled from the racist garbage of the insidious Sax Rohmer – East is evil, West is good.
Suddenly a badger erupts among the boys – don’t know why he did it, just playful, friendly and inexperienced like the Aztec Indians who brought fruit down to the Spanish and got their hands cut off. So the counsellor rushes for his saddlebag and gets out his government issue Colt .45 and starts blasting at the badger…….”
http://student.kuleuven.be/~s0110944/William%20Burroughs%20-%20Dead%20City%20Radio%20Lyrics.txt
I don’t think what McCain actually said was about a 100 years war. I think (willing to be corrected) he referred to the possibility of Iraq becoming a situation like Germany, Japan and Korea – US bases being there for the best part of a century.
Against Obama, however, the comment will hurt McCain, no matter what it actually was.
EC,
Nothin like a bit of dated sleeze to start the day.
GG,
I would have thought you would be quicker to pick up on this SurveyUSA poll showing Clinton with an 18 point lead in PA.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7
Rather than just dismiss it is an outlier, which I’ll leave to other people to do, I think the differences between major polling companies is very strange at times. In Australia, as we have compulsory voting, I’d imagine that all polling companies would use similar selection criteria for the people they are polling (demographic selection etc.). I wonder if some of the key differences between polling agencies are due to demographic selection, with some polling agencies perhaps excluding many young voters who typically may not vote, but this election have been providing Obama with a lot of support. Similarly, Hillary receives increased support over previous elections from White Female voters, and the exclusion of some members of these demographics as not being “determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Democratic Primary on 04/22/08″ (or other polling agencies) may produce the large variation between polled and actual results, as well as significant differences between polling agencies.
Morning all….
The McCain things interesting to read, but fairly insignificant….
I mean, the guy swears….seems a little much to be basing a book off that!
ec @ 488
Sadly, there 1972 date was CORRECT. The Hutu’s were massacring the Tutsi’s in Buranda back then. It was a warm up for Rwanda’s 800,000 person genocide in 100 days.
Anyone here have an opinion of the interactions between Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker on one hand and our candidates John McCain, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama that went down earlier today?
Obama
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24018468#24018468
Clinton
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24014865#24014865
McCain
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24012891#24012891
513: I wouldn’t get too excited about Survey USA polling – during this election cycle their polls have been so far off the mark it’s been embarrassing.
Petraeus in search of the right metaphor, went through a few:
(a) “We haven’t turned any corners.”
(b) “We haven’t seen any lights at the end of the tunnel.”
(c) “The champagne bottle has been pushed to the back of the refrigerator.”
(d) “And the progress, while real, is fragile and is reversible.”
…pretty good for a few trillion bucks and no discernable advantages of any description?
Joe Biden puts it in perspective:
He said “the risks of leaving Iraq are debatable” while the costs are known.
– “We have spent less in six years in Afghanistan than we spend in three weeks in Iraq.”
– He said the mission in Iraq has gone “from drowning to treading water,” and warned that “we can’t keep treading water without exhausting ourselves.”
…and a recent report about escalating rates of mental illness in troops on constant Iraq rotation was proof of that last one.
And this one really sums up the confusion, the irony, and the tragedy for the US:
Senator Boxer of California had a question about hearts, minds and kisses. “After all we have done, the Iraqi government kisses the Iranian leader,” she said. “Our president has to sneak into the country.”
…kinda cruel isn’t it? I mean Ahmadinejad gets the red carpet (outside the Green Zone), while Bush sneaks in under cover of darkness with a chopper into the (not so safe) Green Zone.
Ouch!
Claude, SurveyUSA hasn’t been that bad for most of the polling this election. I know it’s easy to dismiss a pollster if they produce a poll which seems strange. Their Ohio, California, Mass, NY and NJ predictions were all very close, and Noam Scheiber tries to interpret the latest SUSA poll over at the New Republic.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_stump/archive/2008/04/08/obama-s-african-american-problem.aspx
I did notice that while they were reporting the poll over at the neo-con National Review Online, they were taking it with a grain of salt. With polls that are so different to others, it’s easy to dismiss it as an outlier, but time will tell.
SurveyUSA poll TODAY showing Clinton with an 18 point lead in PA.
Will the Obamabots talk about this bad news. No , like Pastorgate just ignore it.
I won’t. I think the Poll has grossly overstated Hillary’s lead , which highlights the difficulties faced with US Polling compared to ‘oz’.
Take the US’s no compulsory voting.
First problem is some pollsters push very hard for a voters preference decision , some don’t (will that voter even vote)
Second problem is the total voter base. some pollsters work on previous elections. others work on estimates of the likely vote (generally judgemental)
Third problem is demographics.Democrats generally vote for a different candidate (Obama vs HRC) depending on their demographic be it black to Latino , male to female , college educated to white poorer , young to older
etc.
Because of the above any pollster can get wrong badly
However as SurveyUSA is one of the top US pollsters , sometimes its better to look at trends and averages between pollsters
But even here SurvayUSA & Rasmussen (another top pollster often have opposite results ,meaning some supporters pick the one favouring their guy
What the Primarys have shown is from approx a month out on each , Obama always narrows (for a variety of reasons) & Penns . is no different
IF Hillary chooses to , she can take it all the way whilstever the uncommitted SD’s represent more than Obama’s delegate lead.
Meanwhile , team McCain have probably already run out of computer space of negative quotable quotes of one Democrat candidate’s POTUS assessmentof the other , which will appear in later TV ads
516
junior senator
Obama and Clinton zero in on the very notion of what ‘progress’ or even ‘victory’ means in a place where the lack of political consensus is matched with a lack of basic services and security. It looks to me that even Pretraeus and Crocker agree, it ain’t going well, but of course neither of those two are in a position to define ultimate goals; they’re there to do a job. The ’sucesses’ are small in compared with the costs.
I haven’t watched the McCain clip yet, but I’ve seen a quote, more of the usual jingoism about onwards to victory, blah, blah.
Both Democrats show they comprehend the scale of the debacle and realise that they cannot stay to establish Jeffersonian democracy, while McCain relies on the tired old waffle of the discredited neocons who got them into the mess in the first place.
Given the Gallup poll yesterday which showed an overwhelming public mood for pulling out of Iraq, I don’t think the Democrats will lose any points over their position after this hearing.
Ron,
As one of the people who may now be classed as an “Obama-bot” (I initially didn’t care who won, but now that I want the race to end asap for the Dems to have the best chance in November, I lean toward Obama), I find your post baffling.
“Will the Obamabots talk about this bad news. No , like Pastorgate just ignore it.”
The Obamabots aren’t the only ones ignoring bad news. The Shrillarys are also pretty good at just looking at the facts that suit them.
Put yourself in a white-collar Pennsylvania Democrat voters shoes. You don’t know a whole lot about the election race as you haven’t been paying attention to it all that much until now. You know that industry is struggling and lots of people are saying that is due to too many Free Trade Agreements. You hear from Hillary that she is opposed to any free trade deals, but then find out that Mark Penn has left her team (debatable whether he has actually left) after pushing for a free trade agreement with Colombia. I belive it has the potential to do as much damage in PA as the rumours regarding Obama’s advisors meeting with Canadian officials over NAFTA did to his numbers in Ohio. At this stage of the game, Clinton really needs to win PA by at least 20 pledged delegates (if not much more), and the last week or two of news has not been kind to Clinton.
524
Al
Just as an aside, isn’t it ironic that the biggest export from Columbia into the US is the powdered kind, and apart from the billions in cold hard cash disappearing south, they then spend a sizable bit of their budget enforcing yet another war (ok, on a noun this time!) that swells their prisons and clogs their courts. All of which keeps the profits flowing south, bigtime. They really aren’t smart, are they?
If it wasn’t tragic it would be funny.
Maybe they should start another war: a war on stupidity, and it can start at home.
Illicit substances are a nice easy issue for politicians to avoid talking about, because it doesn’t make good politics, particularly in the US where the putting the Bible-belt offside is a great way to bring on electoral oblivion.
But the effect of Nixon’s War on Drugs and Reagan’s later drug stance has had little real effect on the issue of illicit drug importation (particularly the white powdery kind from Colombia) apart from increasing the imprisonment rate in the United States to one of the highest in the world. While it’s ugly politics, I feel the system needs to change in the US to put higher penalties on the dealers and importers, and provide increased support to the users; rather than just locking them up and letting them out after they’ve done their time so they can get right back on them again.
Morning Bludgers –
just checked the polls – Obama on an almost 7% lead! Why TF is she dragging this out???
Having read through the posts since yesterday afternoon I am struck by the complete dearth of any new and compelling reasons to change my mind towards Hillary. Or to lose support for Obama:- still trying to get some traction out of PastorsauceGate, and trying to minimise the political reality of Iraq. I truly cannot see how these 2 issues can be held up as comparatives. All it does is reinforce the feeling that the Clinton camp has got nothing to argue with other than the belief that she should win because, well, because she just should.
Sobering views of what the world will look like next year:
US debt hardly looks like a bargain right now, even without the sinking dollar. Far-flung military misadventures continue to stretch the country’s fiscal resources, with costs potentially running into many trillions of dollars, according to a recent study by Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes.
Next year will almost certainly see a massive rise in US corporate defaults, even though many firms entered the recession with relatively strong balance sheets. State and municipal finances are in even worse shape. With tax revenues collapsing due to falling home prices and incomes, dozens of US municipalities could well go into receivership, as New York City did in the 1970s. US municipal bonds are already trading at huge risk premiums, and the first big government default hasn’t even hit yet.
…all coming to a ’superpower’ near you!
#446 – Max – love the West Wing scenario. But i heard that there is a different ending.
Four Days in Denver, * By Lawrence O’Donnell Jr
http://nymag.com/news/politics/45786/
……….
Hillary: He won’t accept anything without my—
Barack holds up the iPhone. close on text message: CLARK DEAL DONE. LUV U, M. Hillary looks pained—as much by the Clark deal as by the love in the Obama marriage. Barack gives her a moment to process the shock, then…
Barack (softly): I want you to come with me to the press conference.
Hillary: No way.
Barack: I need—
Hillary (in her Bosnian accent and Mostar steely look): “How is your Indonesian step father?”
Barack: (as his face at first just ghostly, then slowly turned a whiter shade of pale): “I accept the VP nomination”.
Hillary: I can’t win the election without you. I need you, Barack.
CUT TO:
Press conference. CLOSE ON Hillary smiling from ear to ear, as camera motors whir, a thousand camera flashes pop. REVEAL she’s holding her arms straight up in a Rocky-style victory pose. WIDEN to reveal her left hand gripping Barack’s hand. MOVE IN for a two-shot of Barack and Hillary as we PRE-LAP the sound of the growing roar of 20,000 people.
Barack (voice-over, shouting): I give you the next president of the United States, Hillary Clinton!!
In your dreams, Finns.
SD gap 24 – Clinton 245-221 Obama, according to http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Superdelegate_Transparency_Project.
Gallup: Obama 51-43 Clinton, Rasmussen: Obama 51-40 Clinton.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
Biden ain’t letting anyone off the hook in these hearings by the look of things…
And just for GG, a much more eloquent version of the Hillary who cried wolf argument I presented yesterday which was found so morally compromising (with my emphasis):
“The increasing scrutiny of Clinton’s statements in recent days has revived an old weakness – voter doubts about her trustworthiness – that until now has played little part in the campaign.
In the past few weeks, the problem has gotten so acute that even things she says that turn out to be true – for instance, her statement the other day that she shook hands with Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. in Chicago when she was 14 – immediately draw questions.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9459.html
Jen @ 530 – It’s infectious confabulation that has Finns in its grip. While you were away, Hillary lured many supporters to her fantasy planet peopled by self-cloning alien Hillary delegates, from which leads a road of yellow bricks directly back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. When she has enough delegates cloned, her triumphant march along the yellow brick road will begin.
It’s the only way she can think of to rack up enough delegates on her current deficit. Crafty, eh?
a cunning plan indeed, jv!
and about the best chance she’s got it would seem. Unless we all come to our senses of course, and realise that despite the fact that she is a liar, who supported the disasterous war in Iraq, and only ever got to where she is by virtue of who she was married to, that she really is the best candidate because, well, because she says so.
521: re Survey USA. Rasmussen released a poll today for PA 48/43 (to clinton), +5.
Quinnipiac yesterday (huge sample) for PA 50/44 (to clinton), +6.
Yet Survey USA (smallest sample of the three) has +18 ??
Survey USA in their genius predicted Clinton would win Missouri (and go close in Alabama)!
I’m sorry, I don’t give them much credit.
Claude,
Rasmussen reports had a sample size of 695 voters, SUSA 597, Quinnipac 1340, so the 95% confidence intervals are 3.7%, 4.0% and 2.6% (ignoring demographic weightings all those other things which introduce errors and bias). I’m not saying the poll is right, and it probably is an outlier, but outright dismissing the results of the SUSA poll on sample size and because it doesn’t say what you want it to say is a silly thing to do, and something that I bet Obama’s campaign isn’t doing.
#530 – Now i understand why Ron labels you guys as “Obamabots” because you react as a robot to anything that is not pro Obama.
I’m sure they are not righting it off! Clinton still leads, reasonably significantly and having “narrowed” the lead somewhat, I’m sure Obama wants to cut in deeper.
Interestingly, there seems to be some parallels between PA and OH where (if I recall correctly), that Obama closed within 5 points before Clinton extended her lead in the last week of polling.
I just find it odd, given my perception that Clinton has had a bad week (Penn, Bosnia and Hospital (now proven to a correct story), that one survey would be going the other way…
Finns -
what indeed are you Hillary supporters then?
It seems that despite cold hard evidence of her clear unsuitability for such high office (ie- she’s an out and out liar for a start), nothing seems to change your view of her. The best any of you have come up with yet to criticise Obama is the tired old Pastor Wright stuff. Oh, and he had a cigarette when he was trying to give up. In comparison Hillary’s campaign has been bullet- riddled, and yet we are repaetedly being accussed of being mindless barrackers for Barack. Go figure!
How great is this picture of McCain giving Bush a snuggly cuddle? http://www.amazon.com/Real-McCain-Conservatives-Independents-Shouldnt/dp/0979482291/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1207606798&sr=8-1
(uncropped here: http://blog.reidreport.com/uploaded_images/mccain_bush-hug-767929.jpg) You can bet you’ll see a few copies of this flying around shortly.
Jen, have you not worked out the rules of the game yet? Us Obamabots are the doe-eyed dreamers, hoping against hope. It’s the Clintonauts who are the hardheaded realists come to rain on our parade with logic and facts aplenty.
Ron, in your comments yesterday, you seemed to indicate that you are continuing to push this Wright thing becuase that is what McCain will do. Perhaps you missed this interview which McCain gave where he offers a far more concilitory interpretation of the issue than you seem to be representing him as holding:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQquSOnlxJ8
While I disagree with many of McCain’s policies, the cover of that book appears to be making fun of his disabilities that he suffered as a prisoner of war which I find fairly distasteful. I’m guessing many people who see the cover of that book may think the same. I would have much preferred if it “played the ball, not the man”.
Shorter Petraeus : Better get used to it, America. It’s war without end!
——————–
Didn’t read it that way at all, Al at 544. What I see is a sycophant sucking up to an Imbecile, formerly a perpetual deployment dodger, who now happens to be his Commander-In-Chief.
#524 Al
I did not call you an Obamabot , as if you’d probably care anyway either way
There are 3 Obama supporter groups here.
The majority being the Obamabots…Obama has no flaws that are acknowledged
The minority core Obama supporters who will general political issues with reasons (which they & I may or may not agree with each other on)
and who do declare some not minor Obama flaws & may or may not be impeded
to be more expansive by the wolve pack mentality of the majority Obamabots
Then there are the minescule solid Obama supporters who call a spade a spade
Hillary ? I would have voted for her without an Obama candidature. Even though I’ve always acknowledged & still acknowledge she has lots of ‘warts’ not the least of which is her over ambition & her political expediency. when Obama came , he seemed to display qualities Hillary lacked & so I strongly supported him
A subsequent analysis of Obama including his Senate voting record , Rezko , pre 2008 public interview statements , Pastorgate , his cynical Philly speech to camoflage it but it opened more questions , his subsequent flip flop on his Philly committment made me conclude he is not as electable as Hillary when McCain attacks & has exposed greater flaws in him than Hillary regarding his suitability for POTUS.
A line I’ve said before comes to mind re Obama and HIS ticker and convictions ,
20 years believing in listening in silence to a Pastor sprouting anti US views that Obama NOW condemns begs the question:
If with your convictions , you could not stand up to the Pastor’s convictions ,
how as POTUS are you going to stand up for the whole American people ?
r/Ron-
read #540
Al @544 – huh, making fun of his disabilities? I reckon he’s just been snapped in an embarrasing looking cuddle.
Pancho, I may be wrong, but I’m pretty sure that he can’t really do a much better cuddle because of his inability to lift his arms.
Ron,
I don’t think anything will come of Rezko, it doesn’t resonate with voters and has been unable to gain any traction. His biggest issue to date was without a doubt his Pastor, but I thought his response was sufficient to stem the bleed that that could have caused. We’ll have to agree to disagree on your last question Ron. I think the campaign has moved on from his Pastor and his response was firm and reassuring enough to save himself from additional damage down the track on it. Only time will tell which of us is right.
The one thing that saddens me in America is how much it seems taboo to be labelled a “liberal”.
Al – you might be right about the arms. To be honest I have no idea whether or not he can raise them. I thought the really funny part was the closed eyes and sinking into Dubya’s inviting chest like a prodigal maverick who had finally returned home.
Turning Worm -
this whole discussion is becoming bizarre.
it’s starting to remind me of Alice in Wonderland (which I think may have involved Lewis Carroll having a special relationship with a LSD). – hallucinations must be the explanation. Because it sure ain’t the polls.
#540 – [what indeed are you Hillary supporters then?] – i cannot speak for the other Hillary supporters on this blog. But i have been very consistent. i support Hillary because i think she is the best female candidate for the Dems at this junction of history, with her warts and all, the good, the bad and the ugly.
ps; and we dont hunt as a pack
Al thanks for your reply. Yes , I agree with your view that Obama has put the Pastor issue behind him for the present. Howver this relates to the present strong Democrat voters , who are voting in Democrat vs Democrat contest.
It is my view once it becomes a Repug vs Democrat contest , it will resurface and be a big part of the Repug campaign both overtly & covertly.
Turning Worm ,
thanks for the link & having to watch that Fox News Shaun guy.
Of course McCain is down playing Pastorgate for now. He wants the Democrats to keep fighting each other without his contribution. When the real fight begins Pastorgate may not come from MCain’s lips but there are spokesman , support Groups , pro right Media plus the professional swiftboats & McCain naturally playing the Statesman will be above all that.
How do you think the dirt on Hillary has come out…in party from Obama supporters/network and vice versa with the dirt on Obama
550 Pancho
Macca can’t lift his arms above his head due to torture received in Hanoi. He was probably subjected to “strappado” in which both hands are tied behind the back and the victim is hoisted by the hands into the air and then dropped.
I think Hillary has wedged Obama on the Olympics. He is siding with Bush and and avoiding the issue, probably because Chicago wants the Olympics in 2016. For someone with Samantha Powers on his team, it’s a pretty gutless response. Ironically, Powers has savaged Bill Clinton for his weakness in the past with genocide. She would be siding with Hillary against Obama on this one. I’d make a lot of noise about Obama making waffly feel-good statements but not being able to follow through when things get tough.
Finns -
I think Hillary is the best female candidate too, given that she is the only one.
But she’s not as good a candidate as Obama because she is a self-absorbed, lying, power-obsessed person with a proven record of being untrustworthy. Obama may be flawed (sigh… I’m sure I’ve said that before), but less so than Hillary.
And as for “hunting in packs” – we all post as individuals here. if there are more Obama supporters than Hillary it is perhaps a reflection of the demographic in the Real World: he has more supporters than she does. So when you, Ron, Growler and Adam post your pro-Hillary blogs, how are we different?
Is waiting for this primary season to be over defined as torture under the Geneva Conventions?
Must come bloody close! LOL
Diogs -
I sympahise with your position on Obama being completely pathetic over China, but how realisitic is that any POTUS would boycott the Opening Ceremony? I don’t believe Hillary would really do it if she was elected – it’s a stunt.
sympathiSe
Off topic, but isn’t it heartening to see PM Rudd in Beijing, telling the students that human rights in Tibet are problematic?
Those who thought he he’d squib it for the sake of the coal/iron ore were confused with the last bloke.
Onya Kev.
#559 – KR – it’s sensational. To think that a foreign leader has the gut to make a speech in Mandarin to a group university students at the Peking University. This is the elite of the elites here.
The Chinese also have stuffed up their handling of the Tibet sensationally as well. The Chinese have missed the point completely.
Finns – guess what?
We Agree!!!
Good for Kev. More guts than Obama on this one.
Let me see here.
Bush will not boycott the Chinese Olympics opening over Tibet. Obama agrees
Tibet is ‘bad’ and making a ‘powerful statement’ was the US World leadership example as a starter. BUT Tibet is obviously dispensible & expediency.
Darfur , Ruwanda etc are not just ‘bad’ , they are genocide , so those peoples can not expect much from Obama . Also the Chinese love that sudan oil.
I’m back to ‘ticker’ , when does he stand up his rhetoric conviction.
For all of Hillary’s warts & lies , she does have ‘ticker’ & so does the World
correction
and the world needs a POTUS with ‘ticker’.
Personally Obama may be a ‘nice guy’ and certainly he is the most brilliant of orators , but his is not who we like & which tells lies or the most lies
Kirri at 556, share your pain. That’s why I take regular PFDs, (politics free days).
To be fully efficacious, should you choose to experience a PFD, the following parameters need to be adhered to, strictly:
1/ No Internet.
Best not to boot up, although access to email, non-political files and Word is permitted. Do you have the character for it, Kirri? For political junkies, booting up for “offline use only” is similar to circus performers attempting a flying triple-trapeze-sommersault, Without The Net. Tres dangereuse!
It’s a “known known” that there will always be bloggers and commenters who are “wrong” about something, in Bludgerdom specifically, and in the great blogosphere beyond. These swine will always be there tomorrow.
2/ No MSM.
This of course includes telly, radio, newspapers, sms etc. Trendoid coffee shops should be considered “occasions of sin” as they severely test a “removalist’s” resolve.
Attempted four consecutive PFDs over easter, but like the weak bastard that I am, it was the coffe shop broadsheets that brought me undone. There they were, alluringly unattended on the front-of-cafe table and I jumped those beautiful broadsheets like the Roberto Benigni cabbie in the Jimmy Jarmusch film jumped……….well, perhaps it’s best if you scroll down to “Rome” to get my drift.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_on_Earth_(film)
3/ Try it occasionally as a character-building excercise, not too often mind you, because we’d miss you and there’s no need to punish innocent blog-standers by your overly frequent absences, is there, Kirri?
My Minister for War was quite proud of my recent efforts and has promised to be supportive in any future attempts at PFDs. We talked heaps and LOLled lots last easter.
—————————————
Wed April 9: Very Roger Dean-ish this cartoon.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AiYxHvQwhnlyXdAov2IoYq9T_b4F
Dean did it.
http://teacherweb.com/LA/JHMS/JBUSH/YessongsPathways1280×1024.jpg
I hope there is a call for the Olympics to be abandoned altogether. Apart from the issue of Tibet, there are the little matters of:
1.It is an obscene waste of money and national effort that could be better spent on world poverty.
2.It is often a grubby grab by iffy nations to gain some sort of prestige and legitimacy that many would not otherwise achieve.
3. The games themselves are not a celebration of participation and good sportsmanship, but are more and more about offensive displays of overt patriotism, an element I despise.
4. The Olympic Commmittee is driven by nothing but sponsorship and the individual interests of its members.
5. The Committee will not act seriously on all the drug cheats because they do not want to risk the loss of the huge sponsorship – hence drug use has run riot.
6.The main sports – particularly athletics, swimming and cycling – are a complete joke because of obvious rife drug-taking tacitly assented to by the Games Committee and the peak sports bodies.
So, who needs the farce? Boycott the whole show.
Jen – I hasten to add that synchronised swimming is an exception to all the above of course. That sport is a noble and uplifting spectacle, practised by supreme athletes who eschew enhancing drugs, and come together purely for joys of synchronicity, and to rejoice in being part of a celebratory aquatic display together (as exemplified in the ritual exchange of nose-clips at the end of competition).
jv 565
agree completely on all your points re Olympics.
The Olympics has lost its sheen. It no longer captures the imagination.
jv
One question: who’d then keep the steriods/human growth hormone industry going?
And what about those ‘academies’ of sport, and all that effort in getting another 100th of a second off some human trying to swim like a butterfly, and about as well?
Absolutey in complete accord on points 1-6, jv. Regarding point 3, I’d add, triumphalism, to your “offensive displays”.
However, the nose-clip thing is a bit of a worry olfactory fethish-wise!
But hey, these people are all adults above the age of consent and nobody gets hurt, so why not?!
KR @ 567 – [One question: who’d then keep the steriods/human growth hormone industry going?]
KR – Sylvester Stallone and his mates, I suppose, and the guys at City Gym.
EC -[ I’d add, triumphalism, to your “offensive displays”.]
Yes that’s right – it is triumphalism as well – it gets a good airing in the running and swim relays for example.
And I can’t abide, without vomit, the teary eyes of the drug-steeped winners on the podium looking up at the beloved f*cking flag while their ludicrous (they’re all ludicrous) ‘national anthem’ plays.
564
Enemy Combatant
Thanks for your kind concern Ecky, and yes, a few rostered days off a month would help with the sanity (what’s left of it!), but avoiding all human contact and chanting Ommmmm would be required not to notice the infernal white noise of political chattering that oozes through the ether.
There’s really no escape…we’re doomed, all doomed, now that everyone is assured their 15 seconds of mediocrity on YouTube. Let’s see, we’ve got 15 seconds times another 6.3543 billion people left to go………..aaaaargh, we’ll never catch up, there’s more than one being born every 15 seconds, we’re doomed…
You go girrrl…ah, Camille Pagila that is:
I agree that the male staff who Hillary attracts are slick, geeky weasels or rancid, asexual cream puffs. (One of the latter, the insufferable Mark Penn, just got the heave-ho after he played Hillary for a patsy with the Colombian government.) If I were to hazard a guess, I’d say Hillary is reconstituting the toxic hierarchy of her childhood household, with her on top instead of her drill-sergeant father. All those seething beta males (as you so aptly describe them) are versions of her sad-sack brothers, who got the short end of the Rodham DNA stick.
The compulsive war-room mentality of both Clintons is neurosis writ large. The White House should not be a banging, rocking washer perpetually stuck on spin cycle. Many Democrats, including myself, have come to doubt whether Hillary has any core values or even a stable sense of identity. With her outlandish fibbing and naive self-puffery, her erratic day-to-day changes of tone and message, her glassy, fixed smiles, and her leaden and embarrassingly unpresidential jokes about pop culture, she has started to seem like one of those manic, seductively vampiric patients in trashy old Hollywood hospital flicks like “The Snake Pit.” How anyone could confuse Hillary’s sourly cynical, male-bashing megalomania with authentic feminism is beyond me.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/04/09/girly_men/
While we’ve got people in opposing corners, how about Volcker’s spray at Greenspan’s legacy? It’s like the Incredible Hulk (Volcker’s a giant in his socks) versus Mr Magoo! LOL
Here’s a sample:
“The bright new financial system, with all its talented participants, with all its rich rewards, has failed the test of the marketplace”
…and guess who was the adoring champion of all this new-fangled whizzbangery? Yup, Mr Magoo, his very self!
That’s all it takes from someone like Volcker, and Greenspan’s been in a tizz ever since, denying it was him, never him, who unleashed this maelstrom in financial markets. But he protests too much; the world knows, and Mr Magoo will go down in history as the B!tch of Wall Street, bedazzled by the gadgetry and in awe of the Masters of the Universe in their glass towers.
But it’s all ended rather badly, a bit like a tacky Eliot Spitzer hotel room escapade, and Ali G is the perp, and must take a tearful walk for the cameras.
so now lets shoot the messenger
Obama cynically agrees with bush not to boycott the Olypic opening ,
criticise Obama , hell no !
instead ban the Olympics…that will down grade Obama’s sin.
You guys can dislike the Olympics , but during the 2 weeks of every Olympics we Australians watch it as the highest rating TV of the year for the whole 14 days (except a GF)
You guys represent a small minority of Australians indeed.
Obama’s view is inconsistent with his stated firm views on human rights abuses & that the US should be making a stand. Again Obama when he is required to stand up for his convictions , he does not. ‘ticker’ is a problem
and contrast that to Kevin07’s Chinese criticism . Our biggest export customer
But then Kevin07 does have a ‘ticker’
Ron
It’s pretty amazing that we are applauding Hillary and Rudd for showing some gumption and bucketing Obama over Chinese human rights (both correctly IMHO). Just shows politics isn’t always predictable and we are often wrong in our suppositions.
This link for anyone interested in the declining role of print newspapers in the US (and elsewhere) and the rising influence of internet based info in the US election and more generally. Discusses the creation and rise of the Huffingtom Post, Talking Points Memo, and others. I had no idea the Huff Post was up at ninth place behind eight newpaper sites in web news readership. It had more than 11 million individual hits in March.
Has resonance for us here – look where we get our information from and where we discuss it. Anyway I found it thought-provoking read:
“Out of Print” -
“The death and life of the American newspaper” The New Yorker 31 March
I read it my (old technology) print copy which arrived in the post today, but the article is online:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/31/080331fa_fact_alterman?currentPage=1
Ron – who said ‘ban the Olympics’ ?
Making a stand ??? A US boycott of the Olympics opening ceremony is ‘making a stand’? Hahahahaha.
The Chinese are killing and beating and generally oppressing Tibetan dissidents now and have been for some decades, but that revolutionary firebrand Hillary has the answer. In September 2008, our delegation to the Olympics won’t turn up for a couple of hours one evening at the games ceremony. Then of course, the next day the US athletes get on with winning everything. That should fix it. The Chinese will withdraw from Tibet immediately. How could they withstand that show of resolute conviction?
So, that is Hillary taking firm view on human rights abuses is it? I’ll have to do a KR I’m afraid Ron – LOL
I do something similar with weddings -I usually skip the church ceremony, but then have a wow of a time at the reception. No-one ever notices. See what I mean?
Rudd’s full speech to the Chinese students at Peking University delivered in Mandarin. Not included in this translation is a joke told by Rudd to the students that goes something like: “(I know you are) Not afraid of the heaven, not afraid of the earth, but afraid of an outsider speaking in Chinese language”. The rhymin’ is somehow lost in translation.
One thing you can’t accuse of our Dear Leader is that he is lacking gut. Not only delivering his speech in Mandarin, he again repeated his concern about Tibet. A real surprise was the mention of the so called May 4th Movement of 1919.
This was the first ever student led movement that was “anti-imperialist, cultural, and political movement in early modern China. Beginning on May 4, 1919, it marked the upsurge of Chinese nationalism, and a re-evaluation of Chinese cultural institutions, such as Confucianism. The movement grew out of dissatisfaction with the Treaty of Versailles settlement, termed the Shandong Problem. Coming out of the New Culture Movement, the end result was a drastic change in society that fueled the birth of the Communist Party of China (Wiki)”.
And some of the writers he mentioned were not exactly Communist writers, they were more of the progressive writers. Some of them were criticised during the cultural revolution for being too “burgeois”.
His reference to Tao – “Harmony in the Natural Environment. Our shared future is not only one about harmony between nations and peoples. It is also about harmony with nature — the “Unity of Man and Nature” — a concept with ancient roots in Chinese thought” is again reflected here, as there was an article about this just before the election in the SMH by Annabel Crabb.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
Yes, our Dear Leader has got the TICKER and brain.
A conversation with China’s youth on the future (by Kevin Rudd)
9 April 2008, Peking University
I begin by congratulating Peking University which this year celebrates its 110th anniversary – making this university three years older than the Commonwealth of Australia.
Peking University is the most famous in China. And it has played an important part in modern Chinese history. In the early 20th century, when China was going through a period of rapid transformation, it was Peking University that led movements for a new
era in Chinese educational, cultural and political life. Peking University was at the centre of the May 4th Movement. The May 4th era — for I realise that it was a transformative decade from 1917 to 1927 — was one of crucial and lasting importance in the emergence of a modern China.
Many famous figures in this period were active at your university. One thinks, for example, of Cai Yuanpei, Chen Duxiu, Hu Shi, Li Dazhao and Lu Xun. This year, 2008, is the 90th anniversary of some key events of the May Fourth era: — through his essays
for the major magazine New Youth the writer and educator Hu Shi successfully advocated the use of modern vernacular Chinese in education and the media. This helped bring about a major change in the way that the young people of China expressed themselves to their compatriots.
Full speech here:
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23511829-5006301,00.html
agree absolutely Diogenes.
Also , Kevin07 seems to able to mix ideals into outcomes benchmarks & solutions so seemlessly with a conviction he not only backs up , but you know he will back up despite the costs (which probably wrong footed Howard abit last year)
A decent man.
And the pity of Hillary is for example she has a traditional labor health policy
(far superior to Obama’s involving some private enterprise) and she has the ‘ticker’ to implement it & other core Democrat policys & would do so , but ruins it by being so flawed in other human traits like lying , zealous ambition & expediency to get to the top she turns alot off much as (but more than) Keating did
Ruddski has scored official protests from the Chinese at our embassy in China and in Australia. He really seems to have pis*ed them off, especially as he said it in Mandarin clearly demonstrating that he is not an ignorant capitalist shill. The Chinese are notoriously thin-skinned with zero tolerance for dissent.
However, we do have to apologise to the world for that bottom-feeder Gosper who should do us all a favour and not return from China. If they give the Olympics to the bidding country with the worst human rights record, they are going to get to helpful feedback on their choice.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/rudd-heads-into-storm-over-tibet/2008/04/08/1207420390673.html?s_cid=rss_national
Finns – Rudd has done more for Tibet’s cause in the past few days than the US has done in the past 10 years, or is likely to do in the next 10 – whoever is POTUS.
Given the prevailing western attitudes on Tibet, I am not quite sure who can be considered to be taking the courageous stand and who can’t be.
The west seems happy enough to spend it’s money on the cheap goods produced by these oppressive regimes with their working conditions which would make WorkChoices look like nirvana. Yet we can absolve all that guilt by taking a courageous stand on the opening ceremony of the Olympics?
Interesting that Rudd’s comments come after his visit to the US and Britain. Maybe there was a green light from our allies to criticise the Chinese on human rights in Tibet. Perhaps the Chinese might accept impertinent criticisms from Australia but not the other super powers.
Also, interesting that Hillary had a response different to Obama. Was she given a heads up in their discussions?
Rudd’s comments could not have occurred in a vaccuum. Diplomacy is a very opaque art and there are always shades of grey and very little black and white. However, it is fun trying to join the dots.
If Rudd is backing Hillary, then it is time to get on the Clinton Express to POTUS.
Chairman Rudd might get a bollocking from our p!ssy media over a little hand gesture to the Idiot Son of Bush, but when it comes to principle, and political cojones, he can’t be found wanting.
It’s one thing to save the whales from the Japanese from the comfort of Canberra, but entirely another to walk into Beijing University and mention the 800lb panda in the room, otherwise known as the Communist Party’s appalling record with people it doesn’t agree with.
Makes ya proud, our Kev, doesn’t he?
Compare with Rudd, in foreign affairs, Obama is a light weight, despite his supposed “multi-cultural” background. He is just another insular American, especially from the Chicago southside.
Rudd is doing himself a lot of good, artful campaigner that he is. He has a great talent for getting the visual and spoken messages to reinforce each other. He did this superbly last year during the campaign, and he’s now extending the technique to China. What a winner. If the Australian public remembers one thing about Rudd’s tour, it will be this address in Beijing, where he’s been able to combine charm, learning and candour in an elite forum. And he will be noticed in other quarters too – from Washington to London to Tokyo – and letting them know Australia should not be underestimated. The Chinese will be astonished, but impressed too. They admire strength of mind and character and will know their new friend is not to be taken lightly. What a total winner!
GG @ 583 – I think you might be reading too much into Rudd’s comments. I doubt they were part of a US/UK/deputy sheriff plan. He just said what he thought needed saying. Which is a huge advance on Howard’s meek ‘wack em on the wrist with a wet lettuce once a year’ charade.
586
blindoptimist
Consumate performance. I remember commenting on his election to the prime ministership that it would be a mere matter of weeks before he was on the international stage, declaring that Australia had returned from the dead, and he hasn’t disappointed.
GG , my thoughts are probably simplistic Kevin07 to your Diplomacy thread.
Gordon Brown , a kinred spirit may have winked ‘good on ya’ , do it if you think
George Bush , if sounded out & if he understood what Kevin07 was saying , has shown little interest in Tibet if he knows where it is, would not probably impressed Kevin07 with any response. But perhaps Bush was ‘advised’ it was going to happen
Hillary & Obama , he didn’t spend alot of time with either & assume he is clever enough not to appear to take Democrat sides if he has a private preference
So my thoughts are that Kevin07 has a demonstrated significant interest in China at many levels & a prior statement that human rights abuses under Labor policy should be made a stand of by our Country & he had the ‘ticker’ to say so
Glad he did.
which Obama again 9ticker0 shows he is lacking in
C’mon r/Ron/greig, get it right – that is simply not true, I’m afraid.
Hillary’s plan is very short on detail and is to require everyone to take out health insurance cover and then she will somehow “ensure that health insurance is always affordable” . Obama’s is similar.
The plan, is in fact very similar in concept to that enacted by one Mitt Romney in Massachussets. Doesn’t sound too ‘traditional labor’ so far, does it? The average annual cost of family health cover in the US – already assisted by employers -is up to $12,000. How can that be made ‘affordable’ without a universal medicare style scheme? Beats me.
Obama’s scheme is no better than Hillary’s, and both have the same basic elements from Democratic Party policy, but he spells out amounts to be saved per family, and his proposal is not compulsory:
“When compared to Hillary Clinton, the biggest difference is that Obama does not mandate that all adults have health insurance and Clinton does. In my mind, there is actually little or no difference between the two candidates on this point because the real issue in getting everyone covered is to make health insurance affordable—not whether it is required or not. ”
http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.com/2008/03/detailed-analysis-of-barack-obamas.html
Analysis of Hillary’s health policy (same site as for Obama’s ):
http://healthpolicyandmarket.blogspot.com/2007/10/analysis-of-senator-hillary-clintons.html
GG, I’m sure that Australia’s willingness to express views on Tibet – in the context of longstanding friendship and engagement with China – will pave the way for others. I’m sure this is how Rudd and Smith see Australia’s role: activist, visible, creative. What a change from the largely empty clattering nonsense of Howard and Downer.
Diplomacy, they say is war by other means.
1. George W said he admired a man who did what he said. I realise that the context was Iraq withdrawal of troops. However, I felt it was a strange thing to say. Maybe it was a gee up for this adventure in China. Perhaps the salute et al was subconcious acknowlegement that Ruddy was mission ready.
2. Rudd did not meet Obama but did speak with Clinton. Rememeber the words, “What can I do to help”?
3. Rudd being the only Mandarin speaking leader from the West is a useful conduit for both sides. I think the role he plays will be both ways influence.
Agree that this is all good for Rudd and Australia. Regardess of your political persuasion, this trip has been an absolute triumph.
Mind you the U.S. has a lot more to loose than us when it comes to China. The Americans are in hock up to their eyeballs and it’s mostly China’s money keeping them afloat.
OTOH, China needs our minerals just as much as we need them buying the stuff. If they got really upset they could gradually move their imports to our competitors, almost certainly at higher prices, but that would take years and in the meantime India’s increasing needs would likely take up the slack.
Back to US politics (if I may), and the hearing with Petraeus and Crocker, where that creepy Lieberman put his oar in and made a total ass of himself along the lines of: well, Maliki showed he wasn’t going to let Iran run it’s militias in Basra.
Ah…what in hell is that man doing? Does he really think everyone has been hypnotised so that any innane thing he says comes out sounding like the gospel truth?
For starters, Muqtada’s Mahdi Army is NOT pro-Iranian, but the largest government faction’s Badr Corp was mostly trained in Iran!
When senior US politicians are so enthralled with a Zionist_agenda that they start calling night day, we have entered the twilight zone. No wonder they’ve got no friggin’ idea what they are doing in Iraq, or even why they went there in the first place. Crocker, who knows the facts, didn’t bother to correct this flagrant bit of propaganda.
Lieberman’s a nasty bit of work.
583 GG
Your analysis is way ahead of mine and I’m sure you are right. Rudd is extremely diplomatic and disciplined and would not have weighed into the most topical international foreign policy issue without appropriate consultation. He is not a man to be left out in the cold like a stag on a rock.
Hillary and Rudd spent an awful long tome together, 50 minutes when 15 minutes was allocated, making her late for the rest of the day. They clearly got along famously. Tibet would have to have been discussed. Perhaps Ruddski has given her a leg-up…
j’v Disagree, Hillary is better than Obama on Healthcare:
Explaining complicated policy outcomes & their political interdependence on this blog just can not be realistically effected with opposing supporters.
What I will say about US healthcare as a fact is there are 45 million Americans with no health cover whatsoever & mainly due to ‘poverty’. The result is thousands die & millions , yes millions put up with exteme health suffering because of the US health system with too much influence on doctors of whether you are insured & if so how much and the influence of Drug companies as well as the Drug company’s incentives
The doctors in the US as here are magnificent but its out of their ‘control’
The Repugs have had 19 of the last 27 POTUS years to turn the system into a disgrace & have succeeded.
last time , Hillary tried to reform the healthcare system , but as a ‘first lady’ it really was impossible to do from that position given the Healtcare & Drug lobby.
In particular Bill did not want to waste political capital on Healthcare that he needed for the ‘Free trade Agreement’. Hillary wanted the political capital used in reverse (which incidently makes mockery of Obama’s claim Hillary was pro the Free trade agreemnt). Bill the POTUS won unfortunately
Just one example , Hillary’s plan is compulsory. All present 45 million not insured get insured plus the tens of millions under insured. Its a traditional Labor principle. Obama’s plan is not compulsory , the people having a “discretion” guarantees continued peoples not insured and under insured and this is not traditional labor principle or policy.
So Obama’s policy is fundamentally flawed vs. obvious outcomes.
Once one has the basic equity principle in place (Hillary’s plan) , the question then becomes cost & funding it especially given the US debt (the cost is much bigger than our GDP) you say “she will somehow ensure that health insurance is always affordable”. That is the second fundamental difference to obama’s plan because the political party becomes responsible & accountable to voters to do so. Stuff it up & the voters will KNOW who to vote against
The future Repugs become locked into both principles just like Hayden’s ‘medibank’ principle of univeral healthcare could never be abolished by the Libs despite disgraceful tampering.
Presently the US political process is NOT accountable which in part is why the US system is in such a mess.
These are the 2 essential principles underlying Hillary’s plan whereas Obama’s is flawed in.
How much US familys ultimately pay is a red herrring. Party’s will make sure the cost does not cost them their seats. The US defence budget is probably 5 times the size of the next biggest Country’s & cuts over time could help the financing
I am not suggesting all of Hi8llary’s policys are better than Obama’s within broad Democrat policy positions , but I am on this one
My mistake , I’d read Kevin07 was having a very brief chat with both candidates and assumed that is all that occurred. I missed that the Hillary visit ended up triple the time allotted.
however , even if Tibet was discussed , I’d would assume Kevin07 had his mind set on his Tibet comments already , and maybe kindred spirits Hillary and/or Gordon Brown gave him at the minimum comfort being the new guy & perhaps more , so GG your blog did introduce an insight I missed.
However , in any event , reckon Kein07 showed ‘ticker’ to do so & put himself out there as seems the consensus. Also I’d reaffirm Hillary did show ‘ticker’ supporting the opening boycott because the safe politcal course for her would have been the Obama & Bush line.
j/v & other guys
a boycott is a powerful message of public disapproval to the world. its a start
Quite right Ron, it’s a start. Let’s follow it up with a demand that all manufactured goods imported from China are produced by workers who enjoy the same working conditions that we expect Australians to work under. Ya know, human rights wise and all.
r/Ron – Will you acknowledge you were wrong at least? Neither policy is ‘traditional Labor’ as we know it. Compulsory health insurance cover to be taken out by individuals is not traditional Labor policy is it? Yes, or no?
You just plow on with complete disregard for any supported and linked comments made by others. You didn’t read the expert commentary on the policies I linked which sees the two policies as virtually the same in effect, or you have just ignored it. If you wish to behave like a dolt then I’m out. Anything further would just be repeating myself and linking the same expert commentary, for you to ignore again and repeat the same untidy ramble.
Anyway, health policy is a non-issue in the Dem primaries, so no point really in wasting energy.
j/v
As I expected you misunderstand the two fundamental equity & interdependent political principles I outlined and did not even try to address them.
Further , you failed to grasp what I would have thought was the obvious linking of those 2 principles to the reality what is the existing US health system & the consequential restriction therefore for the Government ever be able to be (as in Australia) the principal direct payment provider.
To the US that would be socialism , which the policy implicitly acknowledges an not be , but builds around. The concepts & their outcomes solutions are not in your orbit , and your last sentence revealed much more.
KR a gentle reminder to our dear readers & posters…
‘With US in crisis, global economy in peril: IMF’ & why?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/09/2212609.htm?section=justin
& a not so gentle reminder of the sh*t / fan /great american down syndrome…hell someone has to say wtf’s going on here buddy? etc …etc…
Why has it always got to be us? Pre Basra, Pre Baghdad Maliki provincial election strategy…& on & on & on….here
http://ia341012.us.archive.org/3/items/maabo/maabo.wmv
Interesting that this is still live but the site i got it from isn’t btw tut tut tut…oh dear…what they don’t understand is that…ha ha ha …
Hillary’s better health care policy
My blogs #597 and #601 taken collectively stated the case , 2 labor principles
but not the 3rd which is unattainable in the US.
And j/v #591 in rebutal gives no opinions , just quotes from & links to a site run by a single person who runs a Health care blog site ,
who was the CEO of the 8th largest auto , home & life INSURANCE COMPANY in the US.
And he would not have links & ‘associations’ with the Health Insurance Industry, which is (with Drug companys) the CAUSE of the mess in US healthcare system !
Thats like saying Obama is unsuitable 2 be POTUS quoting Fox News as a source
Actually Hillary’s plan also could be improved but its based on 2 labor principles , a subject your source being an Insurance CEO would not understand & worse mocks as quote “centrist” which is a code word for “Big Government”.
..a John Howard charge always made against the ALP equity principles ,
you are in strange ‘company’
The Huckster has a countdown on his website and is making an announcement in 5 days: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/mike-huckabee-has-a-secre_n_95830.html.
Come on, Huck! If he ran, the whole south would be in play for the Dems.
Ron, one possible real problem with Hillary’s healthcare policy is that it would never get through Congress as it currently stands unless the Dems had 60% (I think) of numbers and were able to override the constant reviews and Congressional maneuvering that the Republicans would pursue. And it seems unlikely that they would end up with such numbers. Anything with the word ‘mandate’ in it is an anathema to the Republicans and they would derail and stall as a matter of principle. This is not a reflection on the actual policies, but what the President will need to deal with.
#605
Pancho – spot on!
Good to see someone here understands the most important characteristic of the competing policy proposals. In terms of substance they are for all practice purposes the same, but when we look at the potential for bipartisan engagement taking into account the package, the delivery process, and the messenger – the Obama package is something far more likely to succeed.
602
codger
The IMF is wiping the egg off its face, as last year their assesment was that the sub-prime debacle would be contained in the US and not be too big a deal.
It’s funny, but maybe the ‘experts’ hadn’t been reading the same economic commentators I’ve been reading this century! LOL
(Doug Nolan for example has been banging this drum about a meltdown with the easy credit and lax lending standards and whole CDO debacle for more years than I can remember. There’s been plenty of others too, it’s not like it was a friggin’ secret that mortgage debt was being leveraged like all hell and was going to go toxic at some point.)
But anyway, good on the IMF for now telling us what’s bleedin’ obvious ie credit markets are stuffed, losses are HUGE, and the smartest guys in the room will be parking cars and sweeping streets now that the whole premise of Wall Street has been exposed as a house of cards. As Volcker sort of said, it didn’t pass the smell test, only more politiely. They’ve been living in a dream of money being made in their fantasy factories, but the reality is more like a nightmare, and all those ‘profits’ have turned into losses.
The world, my friend, is undergoing some radical changes, and before it gets pretty its going to be very, very ugly…for quite a while.
Yep, 60 Senate votes needed:
“On his dreamiest Election Night, Sen. Charles Schumer has visions of picking off long-shot red states like Mississippi, Alaska and North Carolina, riding what he calls a “tectonic” shift that would endow his Senate Democrats with the elusive 60th vote.
But as the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chairman, Schumer is paid to be optimistic, and the reality is that even if Democrats run perfect campaigns across the country, the stars align and John McCain has absolutely no coattails, Democrats will most likely fall short of the filibuster-proof majority they so desperately seek.
…Senate election expert Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report says that on a bad night, Democrats will pick up three seats and achieve 54 votes. On a good night, they might hit 57.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9476.html
Ah Ron, I see you went on and on again late into the small hours. Somewhere in there I think I discern a roundabout admission that the Dems policy (both of them) are nothing like traditional Labor policy here, because, as you finally admit: “To the US that would be socialism”. You can’t say that and stand by your original comment that Hillary’s health policy is traditional Labor policy.
The difficulties of Obama’s and Clinton’s policies are the same – like the policies themselves – how do you make private insurance affordable for poor Americans when it costs up to $12,00 a year even when assisted by employers? Neither policy explains how that would be achieved, apart from expressions of hope. Whether it is compulsory or not, the point is whether it’s affordable for everybody. You can make it compulsory for those who cannot afford to pay if you like, but what does that achieve? If they can’t pay, they can’t pay.
The Dems policy from both candidates is a capitulation to the insurance industry, becasue of Hillary’s group’s failure to get the 1993 policy through due to her political ineptness, secretiveness in policy development, and failure to bring the main players along with her. It now is political poison in the US to suggest a government run universal health-care scheme. That approach has had to be completely abandoned. Thanks Hillary.
609 – That should be ‘costs up to $12,000 a year’
Wasn’t General Odom refreshing? He was on Lateline last night saying that the US is the problem in Iraq and nothing can change that fact, and sure, you can pay off the Sunni not to attack you, you can prop up an unrepresentative bunch of corrupt Shia in the Green Zone, you can let the Kurds peel off a part of the country for themselves, but you CANNOT call it ’success’.
Plain speaking from a US general, only comes when they’re retired however!
Oh, and Iran? Well, they’ve got no interest in seeing Iraq unstable so the US needs to talk to them when they pull out.
Simple really, it was a mistake to go in, it’s a mistake to stay, and there’s nothing to be gained by the pig-headed notion that there’s any kind of ‘victory’ to be had throwing more bodies and treasure on the pile that’s already big enough.
His forecast for what will transpire when they leave: another Saddam will eventually emerge, as the current bunch in Baghdad will not be able to bring the place together.
Back from whence it came, onya George.
More PA polls today:
InsiderAdvantage 48/38, Clinton +10
PPP 46/43, Clinton +3
Strategic Vision 47/42, Clinton +5
Also Gallup Tracking puts Obama +10 for the democratic nomination.
KR, Colbert had a great bit in his infamous 2006 roast about the political views of retired Generals. During his scan of the crowd he began:
“See who we’ve got here tonight. We’ve got General Moseley, Air Force Chief of Staff. We’ve got General Peter Pace, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They still support Rumsfeld. Right, you guys aren’t retired yet, right? Right, they still support Rumsfeld…”
I’d still be pretty surprised if Obama got within 5 of Hillary in Penn to be honest, although all these polls make for interesting reading.
And Clinton still seems confident that she is ahead, although the campaign seems to be calling black grey, if not white, with its management of percetions here:
‘”The fact that we still maintain a lead after Sen. Obama spent six days here and got the backing of [Pennsylvania] Sen. [Bob] Casey, and in light of being outspent, I think it is remarkable that we still maintain a lead,” said T.J. Rooney, the state’s Democratic Party chairman.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/09/clinton-camp-its-a-miracl_n_95883.html
613
Pancho
He’s pretty astute, that Colbert, and same goes for Jon Stewart, they’ve got more intelligent things to say about America than bus load of nattering neocon nabobs.
As for Penn, although I don’t follow the polls quite as closely as you do, my impression is that Obama has closed the gap, but it’s not likely he’ll do better than take away a ‘big’ victory from Clinton.
Whether that’s enough to end her campaign is the question, eh?
j/v ,
your credibilty was shot by your OWN reliance in #691 on an INSURANCE expert
to rebut my views.
As for understanding the 2 Labor principles inherrent in Hillary’s policy & the interdependent political nature of those & the impossible of the 3rd one ,
(living reluctantly with a basic cake of American culture) ,
your zero understanding of basic Public Policy formulation concepts with outcomes based on equity & interdependent political prioritys is typical of the one of the sub categories of Obamabots.
Thats the ‘elitist aristocrat, literary snouted brigade’
I also noticed that the angle from the Hillary camp in regards to PA is starting to change. Wolfson appears to be lowering the expectations:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/04/wolfson_obama_must_win_pennsyl.html
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/04/wolfson_obama_b.html
That’s a big change from early in the PA campaign when he was saying:
‘Ullo Bludgers, since we’re deep in-thread, I can’t let this one through to the keeper without comment.
Jv at 576, that’s one of the best online reads of the year. William, sincerely urge you to give the Eric Holterman essay a squiz (if you havn’t already) so that the genesis of what’s happening here on PB Sep threads is given due focus.
“Arthur Miller once described a good newspaper as “a nation talking to itself.” If only in this respect, the Huffington Post is a great newspaper. It is not unusual for a short blog post to inspire a thousand posts from readers—posts that go off in their own directions and lead to arguments and conversations unrelated to the topic that inspired them. Occasionally, these comments present original perspectives and arguments, but many resemble the graffiti on a bathroom wall.
The birth of the liberal blogosphere, with its ability to bypass the big media institutions and conduct conversations within a like-minded community, represents a revival of the Deweyan challenge to our Lippmann-like understanding of what constitutes “news” and, in doing so, might seem to revive the philosopher’s notion of a genuinely democratic discourse.
Thanks to the Web, we can all join in a Deweyan debate on Presidents, policies, and proposals. All that’s necessary is a decent Internet connection. “
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/03/31/080331fa_fact_alterman
The last para about “a decent Internet connection” is wherein lies the rub, especially in countries like Singapore, China and Nth Korea, for example, where State control is tighter than the proverbial kipper’s ring. A site like this would last about 60 seconds flat in those countries before being terminated. This type of brutal internet censorship occurs with the co-operation of corporations like Google and Yahoo who don’t give a toss about “democratic freedoms” as long they can do business.
In Singapore the totalitarian State control of the internet is “justified” because of the perceived threat of “homegrown terrorism”.
#605 Pancho ,
agreed , point taken. however a Hillary warts & all but who does have ‘ticker’ would fight to undermine some sitting Repugs seat support base to get votes.
Its not unusual in the US (unlike in ‘oz’) for Pollies to cross the floor
and Repugs always throw away their shallow philosophys to cross the floor when their seat is endangered. How to achieve that…big job & would take time.
But Pancho , the healthcare mess is by far the NUMBER ONE domestic issue (until February) so the ground is extremely fertile.
(Wall Street consequences may be now no.1)
If its worth fighting for , the battle is always long & hard don’t you think
Greetings Bludgers!
Yep KR and Pancho, BHO still has the MO and the contest in PA is narrowing. The Hillary camp is obviously preparing for a closer than expected contest (yet again. Why hasn’t that young black man gone away yet?! Doesn’t he know his place?). Now they’re saying that Obama MUST win PA to demonstrate he can win big states.
So the scene is set for a win by (in my view) Hillary by less than 10% (I’m guessing around 6-7%). The difference in PDs will be minimal but the script she’s now writing will allow Hillary to play up her argument that BHO can’t win where it counts, even when he outspends her by 3 to 1, and therefore she will be hanging around till Denver because she’s the only candidate who can win. It’s almost plausible if you ignore everything that has gone before.
So don’t expect a Clinton withdrawal anytime soon.
Ron @ 616 – Suggestion for your consideration: less labelling of people, less incoherent rambling and more direct answers to direct points.
Your ‘views’ stand rebutted, to the extent thay can be identified.
MayoFeral at 594, that’s a spot-on assessment.
MF: “China needs our minerals just as much as we need them buying the stuff. If they got really upset they could gradually move their imports to our competitors, almost certainly at higher prices, but that would take years and in the meantime India’s
increasing needs would likely take up the slack.”
Kirribilli Removals at 595: “Lieberman’s a nasty bit of work.”
Yes, indeed, that’s why there are some here among us who refer to the warmongering little twerp as Joey “The Rat” Liebermann. The McCain Whisperer routine is merely one recent example of his willingness as a war booster. For those who followed “Independent Democrat” Joey the Rat’s GOP backed snuffing of Ned Lamont’s 2006 Senate bid (on FDL and The Next Hurrah) after Ned got the CT Dem nomination, Joey ain’t nuthin’ but a GOPper stooge.
And at 615, KR, Stewart and Colbert’s writers are pretty good too as we discovered in the recent strike.
Ecky, that’s all fine and dandy, us being engaged in a Deweyan dialogue (whatever that is! LOL) and generating a truly democratic discourse, but just try and make sense of #601, let alone glorify it with some post modern fancy title!
Why JV even bothers is utterly beyond me.
Ron,
While crossing the floor is not a foreign thing in US politics, Government run universal-healthcare is against the GOPs core policies, and is anathema to most of their Reps and Senators.
Their Party platform in 2004 had this to say on healthcare:
Alas Ferny, our fine fronded friend, I suspect you’re right, she’s like my throat infection, not going away. (Halfway through antibiotics, and as I said to the pharmacist, they’re not children, they’re vectors! She nearly choked laughing!)
But I’m putting my faith in modern medicine to beat this thing, and I’ve put my money on Obama too! LOL
KR @ 623 [just try and make sense of #601 ... Why JV even bothers is utterly beyond me.]
Exactly what I have been reflecting on KR – last night I promised myself to disengage there, but the frustration got the better of me. However, that’s it, no more. Stop me if I falter, will you
Ha JV, I’ve been there, I’ve shared your pain! LOL
But really, when someone displays such an appalling grasp of the logical construction of language, what they are saying becomes so opaque you end up fighting shadows.
I’ll slap you if you do it again, OK?
KR – Yes, please do. Those vectors are everywhere.
Oh look, oil at $112/b, ain’t that great news?
Yeah, it’s tough, but give a thought for the world’s poor who are paying double what they did a year ago for rice, and every other staple is on raging price spike.
Obama was right, the pain trickles up.
JV,
Typical of you Obamaphiles. Losing the argument agaisnt the cogent and articulate Ron, and you choose to disengage rather than face the powerful truths of his posts.
Looks like you are lacking in the ticker department JV.
Here’s one take on a young mandate system in Mass.: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/9/185324/8595/348/492915
It all seems pretty messy, and slapping a mandate on top of it all, in the context of the entire thing, perhaps isn’t the correct first step.
630
Greensborough Growler
” the cogent and articulate Ron”
Smoking crack again GG? You know it rots your teeth? Too late for the brain I see! LOL
Go and read #601, and come back and tell us all what (if anything) it means!
Go on, and don’t cheat with Bablefish, ok?
Good one GG @ 630 -[the cogent and articulate Ron]
irony alert successfully detected
KR,
Easy peasy.
Hillary has better health policies than Obama.
JV can’t maintain an argument.
Maybe all that popcorn and toast has rotted your faculties.
OK, I’ve solved it. Take the main paragraph of #601, translate it into German with Bablefish, and then back to English.
See the improvement:
Far could it to seize, which I was not the obvious connection of those 2 basic rules to the reality would have thought to be what existing US health system am and the logically following restriction therefore for the government at all in that am, (as in Australia) the direct payment main servicer.
…ah, the intertubes, enhancing our understanding and our Deweyan dialogues!
Growler 634, that’s a statement, not a set of reasons explaining how a conclusion was reached. But that’s ok, the crack eases the pain, for a while! LOL
GG 634 – [JV can’t maintain an argument.]
Not feasible against a syntactic and shifting shambles.
See #609 for the argument ($1,200 should read $12,000). No direct hits yet. Argument maintenance not required.
Oh KR you are a regular Humpty Dumpty.
‘When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said, in a rather scornful tone,’ it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.’
You’ll do yourself an injury laughing so much at your own jokes.
KR 2 635- [that’s a statement, not a set of reasons explaining how a conclusion was reached]
KR, Diogenes would be proud of you. The expression for that sort of bald unreasoned statement was coined ‘ipsedixitism’ by Jeremy Bentham (from the Latin ‘ipse dixit’ – literally: ‘he said it himself’), for a ’self-referential appeal to authority’.
Come on GG, can’t you do better than that?
I laughed a lot louder and longer at yours: ”the cogent and articulate Ron”
It still cracks me up.
#619 Rondroid said
Back in April though to Dec. 2007 the top ranked issues were:
1. War in Iraq (42 -> 36)
2. The Economy (13 -> 16)
3. Healthcare/health insurance (11 -> 15)
More recent polling on issues by CNN shows the economy (42%) overtaking Iraq (21%) to take out the number one and two spots while healthcare remains third at (18%).
I think the best bit i liked about the statement was the ‘powerful’ truths…
hyperbole much?
GG – please – you can do better than this and you and I both know it.
Closing price for a Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton victory in the Democrats Presidential Primaries reached a new low on Intrade today with a victory currenty trading at 13.3. In comparison Barack Obama who closed the day at 85.5.
Mission accomplished.
GG cheekily lobs another of his drivel bombs into our midst and everyone runs around, jumps up and down, does a John Cleese silly walk followed by a foot stamp, squawks like a cockatoo and blows a raspberry at the PC.
People – get a grip. The purpose is not to present a cogent argument. It’s to get exactly the response it did.
As Hoges used to say – ‘Keep on dancin’ Maria…’
…and Hillary makes a comeback on the Deathwatch…
http://www.slate.com/id/2188627/
js @ 640 That’s right, the health issue is number 3 on the charts for the general election, but between the Dem candidates when their health policies are effectively just the party’s, it is almost inert. I did see one reference to it by a Clinton teamster somewhere recently, but it was only an attempt to mark out non-existent territory.
FernyG 2 644 [...everyone runs around, jumps up and down, does a John Cleese silly walk followed by a foot stamp, squawks like a cockatoo and blows a raspberry at the PC. ]
How can you see what I’m doing Ferny?
Looks like PA will be a 5-10 point win for Hillary, which reallly should mean the end of the line, because that is not going to give her sufficient pledged delegates gien the remaiing primaries, nor is there any reason as to why it would suddenly reverse the 75/25 divergence to Obama in the supers committing since February. Hillary needs 78% of the remaining superdelegates, but is getting 22%. What’s the point in going on?
And then after PA is NC:
‘Voter Registration Surges in North Carolina
“More than four times as many blacks have registered to vote in North Carolina during the first few months of 2008 as four years ago, a sign that bodes well for Sen. Barack Obama in the state’s May 6 Democratic presidential primary,” the Associated Press reports. ‘
jv @ 648,
In Australia we would call this sort of behaviour branch stacking. Many would be outraged. It might win the NC Primary but how do you think this activity will play out in the wider electorate.
I reckon it might scare a lot of people and might even be counterproductive to Obama’s campaign.
Sounds reasonable. However – my bones are telling me this could something around a 6-7% Clinton victory.
GG – I had a chuckle at your earlier comment, but if you really think that registering voters in the U.S. is analogous to branch stacking here, you are really displaying an ignorance of the U.S system.
Also, all Democrats able to see beyond this primary season are over the moon about registration numbers this year and their implications for November.
649
Greensborough Growler
That’s right GG, blacks are people too, isn’t it a pity those silly white folks gave them a vote as well?
And JS, never let be said that Ronron lets the facts get in the way, they only distract attention from his eloquent Deweyan discourse.
GG – [I reckon it might scare a lot of people]
I’m not scared GG. Adjust your pacemaker if you are.
Branch stacking? What, when the ‘branch’ is the whole state? Anyone who wants to register can, and this time they are, but didn’t in 2004. So we are equating ‘popularity’ with ‘branch stacking’. I love it. Geez, you’re even more transparent than usual in your attempted mischief today GG.
648 JV
What I want to know is how the Associated Press knows that black registrations have increased fourfold? I’m assuming that the US isn’t quite so backward as to include race on the registration form.
Or do they include a “do you identify with one of the following groups” section on the registration, perhaps?
Or is this just some journo’s guesstimate based on what someone told him down the pub??
Pancho, as always, I am in awe of your wisenosity.
The bulk registration of a particular ethnic group for the purpose of garnering their votes for a specific candidate is akin to branch stacking.
The point is that this may encourage white middle class voters in swing States to look elsewhere. KR, being politically correct is no substitute for understanding that race is a key issue in this election. People will react poorly if they perceive that one group in the community is trying to steal the election.
GG – And I humbled by the compliment.
Again, worth a chuckle, but again wrong. I wouldn’t assume a ‘bulk registration of a particular ethnic group’, but rather a drive in the Democratic registration process in a state where black voters make up about 50% of the Democratic vote. This is simply a demographic reality in NC, as well as in many Southern states. It is also the case that Obama has been winning 85-90% of the black vote across the board.
FG – I would assume that sampling of those registering would give those numbers. And pollsters in the US don’t seem shy about posing ‘racial’ questions.
Ferny @ 654 [how the Associated Press knows that black registrations have increased fourfold?]
The info came from the state board of elections and it’s a question on the registration form – Question 6 -Race/ethnicity.
Registration Form here:
http://msweb03.co.wake.nc.us/bordelec/downloads/form06.pdf
Mind you, it isn’t just blacks:
“There has also been a boom in voter registrations overall across age, race, gender and party affiliation, according to the North Carolina state board of elections.”
“white middle class voters” aren’t the ones who see Obama as a ‘black’ candidate GG.
You’re towing Bill’s line GG, do you think he needs a hand?
Isn’t is about time more Americans voted? Does it matter what colour they are? Really?
And quite franky, after the godawful mess the stoopid white men have made of it, maybe it’s time for some of the other groups to get involved. Wouldn’t you say?
Afternoon all-
so I can see that all is going along nicely. r/Ron will support Hillary no matter what, and will bamboozle us with unfathomable arguments to do so. r/Ron- it’s Ok: I have the same thing about George Clooney.
yes Al #624 , you are correct to say
“Government run universal-healthcare is against the GOPs core policies,”
which is the direction of Hillary’s policy , and I accept the difficuly of getting Repugs crossing the floor for this reason you stated.
and PANCHO’s #605 previous valid point on Senate numbers I’ve previously
accepted.
However the 2 of 3 labor principles in Hillary’s plan unlike Obama’s is worth fighting for by Democrats and its not absolutely impossible to succeed
Domestically (Iraq is not a domestic issue) the substance of what I said was its REALLY critical to voters , (whether its the no. 2 domestic issue now after the economy or whether it always has been the number 1 or 2 domestic issue)
I had seen a poll before Feb reversing the 1 and 2 positions but its irrelevant.
Either number 1 or 2 means it IS fertile ground to work on the Repugs with.
Thanks for a different perspective re the GOP platform
KR, you have posted four comments too many concerning Ron’s at 601.
Interesting that on the NC registration form, Barack would not have been identified in an ethnic group, but as ‘two or more’. The form and instructions are quite interesting, and they differ from state to stae. Some states habve the race question as voluntary, but not NC.
Growler@665
are you suggesting that the increase in black voters is somehow not legitimate ?
ie: do you think that they shouldn’t vote, or only in numbers that OK with the whites??
I’m going to assume that it’s not what you meant, but it doesn’t sound good.
oops -#655.
#601
Another interpretation is that Ron may have posted n posts too many – but that’s ok – because here at pollbludger – tolerance is a beautiful and bountiful attribute.
woops – replace my 601 with 661
KR,
I am a fervent believer in all eligible people participating in the democratic process. However, to belabour my point, having the Democrats dancing around as if they have scored a great coup may not play out particularly well in the broader voting community.
Jen, on this particular page, KR leads Ron 12-5.
#667 GG
Re. how this plays out – yes – I agree – there will be a consequence – but I think this consequence will be restricted to states with AA ethnic tensions. There was a god article on this on the Huff a few weeks ago that did some solid digging into the argument and reasonably demonstrated a correlation between demographics and voting trends. I don;t have the reference immediately available but if I come come across it again I’ll be sure to post it up here again.
Thanks JV – I guess that answers my two questions about how they got hold of the numbers – and whether they’re backward enough to ask the race question.
Billbo -
I’m not talking about quantity!
js @ 669,
I have been looking for it too! It was a good read.
Cheers
Ferny – we are asked the race question here all the time (are you Aboriginal or a Torres Strait Islander?)
What about when the taxi company I rang asked me if i was Miss or Mrs?- like my marital status has anything to do with me wanting a taxi. Sheesh.
#673
GG – here it is.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/31/133328/708/488/487682
673
Hi Jen – we’re not asked for it on our enrolment form but you’re right, some forms do ask the question – “Do you identify with one of the following groups…”. The difference is that answering the race question here is voluntary. Not so in NC.
As for the taxi Jen – the operator was just wanting to add your details to their database – or to chat you up.
661
William Bowe
As Mozart said: “Too many notes? Which ones would you like me to take out?”
668
William Bowe Says:
April 10th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Jen, on this particular page, KR leads Ron 12-5.
…have you measured the word count too?
Can I get extra points for neatness? LOL
It’s the “Deweyan discourse”, William, it must be flowing today!
#668
William Bowe Says:
Great news – KR is leading in the polls – yes we can!
Hey Ron, an interesting piece on the pros and cons of mandated healthcare here worth a look: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/9/221614/4674/224/493015.
The writer argues that the main problem in the system is lack of affordability rather than lack of coverage – he says that premiums have risen 78% since 2001 for instance – and concludes that mandating insurance purchases therefore do not attack the main problem facing the system.
He also points to the failure in Mass., where only 7% of the uninsured population have bought insurance since the law came in requiring them to do so.
Actually, I don’t think any pros are listed…
Obama’s has a postal moment
http://apwu.org/news/forthepress/pressrel080409_obama.htm
js – have a look at the comments to the same story on this link:http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/04/special_delivery_postal_worker.html
My favourite I think is:
‘They’ll probably leave their ballots at the wrong address anyway.’
Pancho @ 679 – [the main problem in the system is lack of affordability rather than lack of coverage]
Exactly. I tried to make that point on what feels like even more than KR’s impressive 12 occasions, but I may as well have responded to a bowl of custard.
The Dems policy is no Medicare, neither Hillary’s nor Barack’s very minor variations on the theme.
What took ‘em so long?
Nothing like an election to get their attention, I suppose:
But now one component of the fractious Republican Party foreign policy establishment — the so-called pragmatists, some of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake — is expressing concern that Mr. McCain might be coming under increased influence from a competing camp, the neoconservatives, whose thinking dominated President Bush’s first term and played a pivotal role in building the case for war.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/us/politics/10mccain.html?hp
…I wonder what about “bomb,bomb,bomb…bomb,bomb Iran” they didn’t understand the first time?
Here’s the fracture line: the US public are sick to death of it, (the Iraqis are really lucky, they get both the sickness and the death), and the Republican nominee is bolted on to endless occupation.
Bad luck, eh?
I see from the great seal of North Carolina that the state motto is “esse quam videri” meaning “To be, rather than to seem”. That’s a rather liberal sounding motto isn’t it? It’s been the motto since 1893 too. Hillary could benefit by taking a moment to reflect on that concept. No wonder they’re all over Obama in NC.
678
js
Kirribilli and Obama in front:
the Clinton camp is really on a downhill slide if we can get past r/Ron.
Had people seen this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=ap-candidates-olympics&prov=ap&type=lgns
LEVITTOWN, Pa. (AP)—Barack Obama joined Democratic presidential rival Hillary Rodham Clinton on Wednesday in calling for President Bush to boycott the opening ceremonies for the Olympic Games in Beijing.
Jen,
12/5 with another 83 super bloggers to contribute. They might be leading the count, but do they have enough to win the prize? It is just more Obama/KR dreaming.
And, don’t forget there is always the omnipotent one William who can end your dreams with the click of his mouse. You better hope he is a benign despot.
Good to see Hillary setting the agenda. I think it shows she knows how to make the correct call in a tight situation.
Clearly, Obama is a follower, not a leader.
GG -Yeah Hillary’s the leader on belated empty gestures alright. It’s just so … tough. The Meiner Badhof gang had nothing on her.
I see the call for boycott by Clinton as an attempt by Hilary to hit some of Obama’s votes – uni students (as well as an admirable stance). However, i thought PA was going to a Hilary win on the back of her base? Does it indicate that she is thinking ahead to other states or that she is frightened by the PA vote? Or am i being to cynical and she is really just calling for it because she believes it?
Whatever else she may be doing, Clinton is surely playing to the Democratic base domestically with this.
And again while stating that I know little about Sino-US relations and diplomacy, I wonder what the implications of a boycott of the ceremony are. Obviously there are concerns with China’s behaviour on many fronts, but is the problem not with the awarding of China the olympics in the first place? Will a boycott complicate attempts to engage and work with China not only on Tibet, but Darfur, Sudan, Iran and other issues as well? How does a boycott compare with the Rudd approach of airing dissent from within? What are the pros and cons of such open actions (diplomacy vs a public slap)? Maybe the threats are brinkmanship, and leverage can be gained through them, but structurally a boycott seems on the one hands seems risky when the event of the Olympics and Rudd’s proximity to China have seemed to raise these issues popularly in a way that they have not been raised in years. Like I say, I know nothing here and am happy for all this to be labelled naive and shot down, but I have just been waiting for someone to present the diplomacy argument here which hasn’t arisen.
Why is this man talking about something which is a non issue for him? I seem to remember someone on this blog reminded me of “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.”
It appears that Obama has a habit of talking about issues which are non-issue. What was the speech that he made at Philadelphia about again? Oh yes, it was about his naughty grandmother, a typical white woman.
Obama seeks to stress his patriotism
After a series of incidents that prompted questions about his patriotism, the Democratic presidential candidate is peppering speeches with explicit statements on his love of country.
“I love this country not because it’s perfect but because we’ve always been able to move it closer to perfection,” he told an audience in North Dakota.
And in Montana: “It’s a country where … I’ve seen ordinary Americans find justice, where I’ve seen progress made for working families who need leaders who are willing to stand up and fight for them. That is the country I love.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-04-07-obama-patriotism_N.htm
#693 – “working families”, did he get permission from the Mandarin Rudd to use that phrase?
If not Finns, I hope he does in due season.
Finns, this is from Obama’s keynote speech at the 2004 Democratic Convention (doesn’t that seem a lifetime away now?):
For every national speech you can find where a US politician does not mention the exceptional nature of ‘America’ and their love for it, I’ll find you several where they do. And this includes Obama pre and post Wright.
12-5, eh.
The smart money says this Ron is not for narrowing.
———-
“Obama’s has a postal moment”
Ah, the sweet stamp of success.
Hillary still has currency. She is not licked yet.
# 679 Pancho
Thank you for your interest & for the link. I’ve read the article carefully in full.
(Count this blog as 5 if you other guys want or whatever number you may wish)
The observations I have are for only those interested in the healthcare issue:
1/ The writer (’eugene’) strongly opposes Elizabeth Edward’s support of universal (mandated) healthcare.
Her husband Senator John Edwards also supports the universality (mandating)
Hillary’s plan & Edwards views are in the same general ballpark.
Obama opposes this principle. Obama IS against a fundamental Labor principle
2/ The writer ‘eugene’ generally ONLY provides arguments against universal healthcare and none for. Bill Hayden would just be frothing to get at ‘eugene’
Not sure who he represents.
3/ “Eugene the writer having dismiised this Labor principle as irrelevant , he then argues the problem is the ‘lack of affordability’ , but does not list how to make it affordable !
He simply says “the problem is the lack of affordability – we need guaranteed access to affordable healthcare to everyone”. Its an empty statement , no why or how nor any supporting reasons at all
4/ Every Labor leader from Whitlam to Rudd supports the Hillary & Edwards line on ‘universal’ & would demolish this persons arguments. Some of the problem points he says with universal healthcare are true but he mentions a one year Matt Romney experiment rather than ‘oz’ 25 years of experience.
The points he says against ‘universal are far outweighed by the benefits
5/ The Howard Liberal Party would favour this ‘lack of affordability’ argument
and to dismantle the ‘universal’ Medicare principle. Yep , open health up for free enterprise competition’ for more private companies to make even more profits at the expense of unhealthy human beings (often poor & disadvantaged as well).
6/ 2 big problems with the US system are the Private Insurers & Drug Companies too heavily ‘control’ rather than the Doctor treating a human on the basis of health alone. Instead the doctor may have to first check the patient’s insurance to see if he is covered and if so for what level & in what discipline.The 45 million uninsured …they have a problem…health and economic.
Worse still 45 million are totally uninsured meaning when they or their kids get sick , they can not as in ‘oz’ just ring a Doctor or hospital knowing a doctor will help. Millions more are under insured meaning they also face similar dilemma’s.
For j/v #591 to quote a guy as the basis of his rebutall to me who is the ex CEO of the 8th biggest home , auto & Life Insurance company in the US , WHEN the
health Insurance company’s are part of the problem Why ask the devil for advice
7/ Affordability – political responsibility
This is like the questions ‘what should the US stratregically do before it leaves Iraq and what will happen after the US leaves’. too many variables to adequately cover. however here are some:
We will make health insurance affordable. Thats Whitlam
We will make health Insurance afforda1ble. thats Hillary.
When the government (if it also has universal health care as policy) becomes generally responsible for the affordability of healthcare as Hillary is proposing , it is becoming responsible for A ‘goods & service’ unlike other private enterprise ‘goods & services’ inwhich the government is NOT responsible at all.
In the US , the Government is essentially not politically responsible for the affordability of healthcare simply because its not ‘universal’ with everyone covered (and millions that are ,are under insured)
In Australia , the Government does have since a general responsibilty , since Hayden , for the affordability of healthcare.The public know it. This was the 2nd Labor principle which Medibank permanently imbeded.
(This is separate from the 3rd labor principle of the governemnt being direct government payer of a % rebate 7 schedule fees supervision etc.)
This general political responsibility for the affordabilty of healthcare has prevented total privatisation on one hand and responsibility for affordability on the other. Howard & Fraser damaged it to some extent but everytime they tried too far , voter fear of a lack of government infuence on affordability & voter backlash constrained.
Howard would have wanted a workchoices form of healthcare …fully privatised
If healthcare costs skyrocked here to the US levels of the NET the consumer actually has to pay , an Aussie government may be thrown out as they are perceived to have a general responsibilty for affordability.
In the US there already is & has been total lack of affordability , but NO US Government has ever been thrown out because of it including George Bush
It is where Hillary if elected on her 2 policy principles would be fatally punished for in later election if gross lack of affordability persisted. It would be her ‘universal’ plan for all americans and her committemnt ‘to make it affordable , both politically & socially interdependent.
Whereas Obama’s policy means if the crisis remains unchanged , he can say
‘not my fault’….blame all those Indurance companys fees & resrictions and for not insuring the poor & disadvantaged. No 2 principles , no political responsiblity.
8/ Affordability – rebates
This is the 3rd (but not the last) of the Labor principles for healthcare
This initially was to directly contain the overall net costs to consumers through the 85% rebate , schedule fees etc. Sadly this % rebate has undermined down by the healthcare industry often charging well over the various schedule fees. This principle therefore has a diminished direct effect on affordability , but still very worthy.
Whilst obama’s plan does do incorporate the first 2 principles , I did freely ackowledge Hillary’s did not include the 3rd principle. A pity.
I said the reason why US Pollies are fearful of it was the US culture built so strongly on ‘free enterprise’. The 3rd principle would be regarded as a form of socialism & would be opposed by even some Democrats to prevent them losing their seats
Therefore the Hillary plan was built acknowledging this impediment , but an ‘out’ may be some limited form of it in future financing & rebate Congress negotiations
9/ Affordability – future US subsidies/rebates/Insurance premiums re healthcare:
If the first 2 principles mentioned were implemented , one can only hope during the Congress debates it gets in relation to subsidies /rebates closer to the ‘oz’ 3rd principle model, the closer the better.
This may involve better:subsidies , rebates by tax level, supervision of insurance companies , attention to fees or how they increase etc., or some form of regulation covering some or all of these. Thats for the future to decide.
10/ Funding
Obama approx 65 billion promised. Hillary 110 billion promised.. stand to be corrected but if correct , Obama you need to adopt Hillary’s policy and match her money
11/ US Federal Debt
The amounts needed I think are far far greater than either’s in point 10/ anyway.
Given the US debt to China & others, & its trade deficit , “fixing” healthcare does pose serious economic challenges which are beyond the scope of a single blog. That said , I’ve said previously the US defence budget is I think 5 times the 2nd biggest Country’s spending on defence , so there is alot of money that could be redirected for equity rather than for weapons.
11/ throwing tax payers money at the problem , without the first 2 principles
just guarantees the US private health Insurance companys & all those others profiting out of US healthcare, will increase their fees progressively to negate the subsidies & rebates leaving the status quo….total lack of affordability.
Indeed on this , and other areas , we are the lucky Country
If I’ve made an odd error on a point in a long blog , it should not detract from the substance of the policy issues proposed.
If you have read the whole blog , I thank you
Great post Ron. Your passion for this subject of Health Care cannot be questioned.
Music to blog along with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wNvvuG309s
Oh dear, now it’s health – there really is no remission – r/Ron I hate to say it, but, gee, what about that pastor guy, eh?
Too hard to read the blog JV. Better to stay with your heartfelt prejudices eh.
A bit of morgue analysis for those of a forensic bent about someone who was going to be ready on day one:
“What Went Wrong with the Clinton Campaign”
“This is an organizational failure of monumental proportions. There is no other way to put it. The question is why did it happen?
… [lots in-between]
“What we are talking about here is plain old arrogance. I think this is the central mistake of the Clinton campaign. It presumed that the nomination was Clinton’s. Not Clinton’s to lose. Just Clinton’s. Period. As a consequence, it behaved in an unduly confident manner. Mark Penn is to be blamed, for sure. So is Patti Solis Doyle. But so also is the entire upper-echelon of the campaign. Above all, it’s Hillary’s fault. She’s the candidate. She sets the tone. “”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/04/what_went_wrong_with_the_clint.html
Got to go – heart check tomorrow GG – night all
Exchange between JV and GG deleted. JV was far the worse of the two offenders.
Sorry Ron, I’ll be honest: TL;DR.
But I think one important thing that JV is trying to say is that mandating health insurance is not a Labor principle. Forcing people to purchase healthcare and if they don’t, penalising them, which is what both Edwards and Clinton’s policies do, would be unacceptable in Australian politics. That isn’t to say that Edward’s and Clinton’s policies are better than Obama’s. Trying to pick the best healthcare policies in the United States is not possible, it’s just a case of trying to find the least worst.
Did I hear George telling the Chinese to go talk with the Dalai Lama?
I wonder who put him up to that?
Gosh, our Kev’s a right little mover and shaker, eh?
There are always two sides to a coin. I agree with Michael Backman here, the Chinese are often their own worst enemy. They might be the best manufacturer in the World but when it comes to PR and spin, they still have a lot to learn.
Western media miss the real Tibet story by Michael Backman
What annoyed my correspondent was a column I wrote last year for The Age in which I highlighted some aspects of the Dalai Lama that most media reports ignore: the fact that in running his government in exile, he has been extraordinarily nepotistic by appointing many relatives to senior positions, and that during the 1950s, ’60s and into the ’70s he was personally on the CIA’s payroll, for example………….. The vested interests that surround the Tibet issue are many and make it a great deal more complicated than simple slogans such as “Free Tibet” suggest. If China is ever going to neutralise this issue, it is going to have to learn to act with a level of sophistication, maturity and self-confidence that it now lacks. Apologising to Tibetans for their suffering under Chinese rule will need to be part of the package. But obviously such a degree of enlightenment is years off.
http://business.theage.com.au/western-media-miss-the-real-tibet-story/20080408-24nz.html?page=1
709
The Finnigans
I agree with that wholeheartedly Finn, there’s been too much polarisation of the issue by a largely ignorant western media, but the fact remains that Chinese rule is hardly benign wherever it encounters cultural difference (or political for that matter!).
It did not surprise me to hear Robert Manne say he was amazed by Rudd’s courage and conviction, as was I, and no doubt much of the Australian thinking population who’ve been so innured to mealy mouthed platitudes from the likes of Howard and Downer for so long we’d forgotten what a politician with real convictions actually looked like.
#710 – pass the popcorns please. LOL
#710 – KR – Unfortunately the West is still like to view Tibet through what i call the romantic “Shangri-La” prism. How many people really know about the historical interactions between Tibet and the Chinese Dynaties over thousand of years. Tibet has been in and out of the Chinese orbit ever since the year 680AD when the then Tang Dynasty founding Emperor married off one of his Princess to the King of Tibet. One may very well ask also how did Hawaii ever became part of the USA and how much the Hawaiians had a say.
BTW KR: Rudd’s speech yesterday at the Beijing University will go down as one of most significant Sino related foreign affair speech ever. As now, its depth is simply too much for the MSM to digest and understand but it will be studied and dissected in details by any serious students of Sino affairs.
Finn,
For once, must disagree. This is not just a sinophile phenomenon.
KR has absolutley changed the paradigm. Cultural icons like KD Laing are singing his praises and this is bound to flow through. Mate our office girl was talking about what a great job Rudd has done for Australia. Truly, truly amazing response.
http://www.video.news.com.au/index-popup.html?Channel=National+News&ClipId=1094_270269&bitrate=300&Format=flash
#707 Al
thanks for your post & agree in part but which I excluded because the principle was already misunderstood by opponents
So my argument purely centred on ‘universiality’ which is a Labor principle.
The argument that was being AGAINST ‘universiality’ via j’v’s source was that forget ‘universiality’ instead ‘affordabilty to pay’ was all that needed addressing …which was code for continued private enterprise running of the system without any Government involvement…meaning no improvement to mess
Labor’s ‘universiality’ principle is financed policy is forcing tax payers to pay for that universiality’ at 1.5% tax under $50,000 income (with scheduled fees etc)
-the financing & scheduled fees etc. is the 3rd Labor principle I listed
The problem is the 3rd Labor principle will not be accepted by voters as it will regarded as socialism.
So THE REALISTIC CHOICES for US Pollies (abbreviated) are:
1/ Hillarys
(a)with the first 2 Labor principles of ‘universiality’ and political responsibilty for general affordibility (with the electoral costs of failure to do so) , plus
(b) mandating for all people the paying of basic Insurance Premiums , with government subsidies or rebates to offset some cost
vs the Labor 3rd principle of 1.5% tax to finance it & 80% of sheduleds back
which is socialist
or
2/ throwing money at people via subsidies , most of the poor of whom may not use it for Health Insurance in reality despite procedures and which (the subsidies) will get eaten up by the US Healthcare profiteers via increased fees…resulting in little or no improvement
So you are right to say Labor would not force premium payments but this is the best alternative to Labor’s forced 1.5% tax levy , given US socialist concerns.
Thanks for making the valid point.
JV at 704, that is a great article. Sums up the situation perfectly I reckon
I actually meant to say “That isn’t to say that Edward’s and Clinton’s policies are worse than Obama’s”. Damn Freudian slip.
no problem Al.
hope my blog also clarified your point
#715 andrew ,
Good article. however the writer is 3 weeks late as the identical view was published (think NY Times) 3 weeks ago and I and asanque said based on that article then believed it was the strategy cost Hillary any chance.
I actually would call Penn’s “big State’ strategy incompetence rather than arrogance. Its one thing to think you’ve got the Nomination sown up , but its incompetence to completely ignore the mathematical reality of the decisive number of delegates that were up for grabs in those small States and leave anyone the chance to get them.
The person at the top always bears responsibility but when you high a top gun ,(like Howard did with the incompetent we know know Textor) you usually do not tell them generally how to suck eggs in their specific expertise area.
guess Penn won’t get such a gig again
712
The Finnigans
Although I obvioulsy did not know who the Chinese writers were, nor the details of the history Rudd mentioned, it still looked like a pretty nuanced speech to me, and that he was talking on several levels (most of which I knew were going over my head).
Look, if the likes of KD Lang get all gooey about his performance, fine, but it’s far more important that the Central Committee knows what we think, and that they can’t just lock the doors and tell us everything is fine inside. Rudd’s done them a favour in one sense, he’s told them, to their faces, in their own language, that it isn’t all right to abuse your own citizens and in this global world you’ll need to do better than that.
I’m still in awe of his chutzpah (or the Chinese equivalent! LOL).
If only Ron. Rumour has it that Gordon Brown is on his case to take over his PR in the UK. Some slow learners about. Asides the bookends of being fired by Gore in 2000 and sort-kinda-but-not-really fired by Clinton in 2008 he is
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/6/20525/15947/864/491358
The stars come out for Hillary,
http://media.theage.com.au/?category=Breaking%20News&rid=37011
They always do at night.
Pancho,
Elton talks about misogynists. You reckon there are any on this blog?
Kevin07 has done it again Finns !
Achieved a mulplicity of objects in one clever speech.
All the different approachs in your #709 7 #712 and GG’s #713 in one hit.
Further both domestically & internationally he is a hero for ’standing up’ for humanitarian abuses & ’standing up’ to China. The Students (the brightest of the bright) will be impressed by the intellectual argument he presented.
And the Central Committee will rspect a Leader with courage but who ‘undedrstood the historical relationship & culture involved and was giving them a different way out
Kevin07 would leave Obama and Hillary for dead in every respect
Hell Pancho #720
touche. The background you have on Penn is brilliant. I’d never checked him out but as I and asanque concluded his big State policy was incompetent.
But your info staggers me…and begs the question , who in Hillary’s camp recommended him
Surely Gordon Brown wouldn’t ?
ps/ thanks for that your little blog of yours today , whilst I was addressing it and in length with some passion , you were probably having a quiet wine & with a smile
Pancho @ 720
With a losing record like that, are you sure Penn isn’t related to Bill Kristol?
Bongiorno Bludgers,
The Imbecile’s I-raq strategy: “God’s on our side, so it’s war without end, amen.
Theem WMDs, mah feller ‘Merkans, have been smuggled across the border to I-ran”.
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51604/
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51578
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/51616
April 10:
http://www.miamiherald.com/jim_morin/image_media/489350.html
http://www.gocomics.com/stuartcarlson/2008/04/09/
Remember how Uncle Sammy won the Vietnam War? Just like the French did before them? Well I-raq ain’t no quagmire, and US Forces gon whup goddamn Raghead ass till God’s gift of Freedom and Democracy has been delivered in full. Yes suh!!
Must be a blue moon. A reasonably positive report from Dennis Shanahan.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/rudd_treads_wisely/#commentsmore
Labyrinth d’Imbecile:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
GG,
Maybe Shanahan is trying to fight for some relevance?
Two staggering poll results from Rasmussen in Montana and Alaska, bearing in mind that Bush won each of them by over 20 points in 2004. I don’t put that much faith in them, but maybe it’s a sign of the 50 State Strategy that Obama has been trying to push.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/alaska/election_2008_alaska_presidential_election
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/montana/election_2008_montana_presidential_election
I doubt either of these states will turn blue in November, but polls like this could force McCain to spend a lot more time shoring up red states than attacking the purples (much like Howard was forced to do last year).
Ecky
The Grinnin’ Chimp has left the cockpit on autopilot and hit the eject button: mission accomplished. He’ll parachute into Waco and stumble off into well earned oblivion.
Kinda leaves the rest of the nation up the Tigris without a paddle though, an endless war they cannot ‘win’ and an armed forces literally coming apart at the seams.
I heard Colin Powell on radio this morning, and he put it pretty bluntly short of calling the POTUS an idiot, I’d say.
What a godawful mess he’s given them, and for what? So they do another talent show to find the next Saddam?
What a goofball,eh? Not only has he wrecked Iraq, he’s damn near buggered the USA while he was at it.
Incredidble.
Apparently a deadline for settlement of some overdue accounts by the Clinton campaign has been set with the threat of payment collectors stepping in to resolve the question. All of this for a university where Bill Clinton said during a stump speech – ‘We owe you so much’, words that have come back to haunt the campaign.
Olbermann’s take on the situation – enjoy.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24038421#24038421
GG – oh absolutely, it seems stacked with them. I mean, I can only speak for myself, but have I told you that I only think Obama is the better candidate because I hate women?
On another note, it’s a little disappointing that you’re taking your political cues from Elton John now. I mean maybe 70s and 80s Elton I could understand, but this washed up version? (Oops, is that a homophobic comment? Shoulda disclosed that as well).
js – that clip is hilarious! Olbermann is a star.
Colin Powell on Good Morning America confirming again that he has not made up his mind as to whom he will vote for – but manages to send positive signals out on Obama’s handling of the Wright episode and his effectiveness in campaign management as a indicator of his potential.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/10/powell-praises-obama-but-doesnt-endorse/
# 700 GG
Thanks for your post last night. Just scrolled back & saw it. missed it in evening
Some of these guys are so full of their snouts in literature , with voting Labor the intellegentsia thing to do , an actual post on Labor fundamentals leaves them in embarrased shock/silence or running to Google & picking neo sources.
Iraq is ’safe’ for the ’set’ to blog , but after 2 months where is one other pro Obama detailed policy bloged by them. Just rely on Google for ’safe’ stories
Ron,
Sorright!
Pancho,
Perhaps it is time to roll out John Cleese to do the “Dead Parrot” sketch regarding Obama’s campaign.
Here is a special endorsement for John McCain.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNTPqG6ZECU
As well she might:
“Clinton Resets Expectations in Pennsylvania”
“Having seen double-digit leads in Pennsylvania dwindle in recent weeks, Sen. Hillary Clinton is now trying to make sure that any win by her — even by a few points — is seen as a big victory.
Of Sen. Barack Obama, Clinton spokesman Howard Wolfson tells the Chicago Tribune, “He is doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania. And if he doesn’t win, it will be a significant defeat for him.” ”
Now that’s brazen spin. Of course Hillary is doing nothing to win.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/04/10/clinton_resets_expectations_in_pennsylvania.html
Source Tribune article here:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/chi-campaign10apr10,0,7896375.story
Interesting take on the electoral value of McCain’s Iraq position by Jonathon Chait in the New Republic:
“Iraq may not be popular, but the general perception (which is not the same thing as reality) that they’re willing to fight the bad guys remains a key positive for the GOP brand.”
I find that bemusing, although he does conclude that Obama’s position is probably the best electorally (dovish on Iraq, hawkish on Al Queda)
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/04/09/can-republicans-win-on-iraq.aspx
Ron, the blunt facts are that healthcare is down at number three on the list of US concerns, and although nobody would disagree that it’s a total mess, the subject is really one where a degree of detailed knowledge is required ie it’s for policy wonks, preferably with some background in public health and funding issues.
Can I suggest, if you wish to pursue this area of interest, that you try finding a US board where policy wonks go to debate these issues, as you’ve probably exhausted (in both senses) the bloggers on this board.
Try this one for starters:
http://www.john-goodman-blog.com/hillary%e2%80%99s-plan/
…and if you go to google you’ll find a whole heap more.
740
jaundiced view
That’s a bald-faced lie, as in: the public have consistently and overwhelmingly said that they want out of Iraq, but they’re wrong, they actually want to stay and fight anybody we define as the ‘bad guy’.
This is the typical neocon lie, it’s best expressed by Darth Cheney when asked about the public’s disapproval for staying in Iraq: “So what?”
In other words, this is a fascist dictatorship that will go the way of the Third Reich.
‘dovish’ , flip flop like bird
But then he does say with ‘conviction’ , if Al Queda return to Iraq , he’ll have the US back to get rid of them
and you ivory tower mob believe this hot air
KR 742 -Yes, it is hard to fathom, but I think I can see what he’s saying about a distinction between an unpopular war and perceived general ‘tough guy’ image. I just cannot imagine the voters will make this fine distinction though, when it’s clear the overwhelming majority want change generally. McCain doesn’t represent that.
Rondriod siad:
What’s with all of the nastiness Ron?
r/Ron/greig 2 743 [and you ivory tower mob believe this hot air]
Tusk, tusk, ron.
and change to specifically what…..spun oraratory.
Obama is the Mr Health Insurance front man
Ron,
I’ve been investigating the health care policies of both candidates a bit since last night. Really good summary of their stances on all the issues here:
http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Barack_Obama_Health_Care.htm
http://www.ontheissues.org/2008/Hillary_Clinton_Health_Care.htm
I also read a good article by Robert Laszewski, President of Health Policy and Strategy Associates about the two plans, available here:
http://www.thehealthcareblog.com/the_health_care_blog/2008/02/hillary-clinton.html
He makes some good points regarding the current mandate system which is currently used in Massachussetts which marries up with what I suspected the flaws are.
General Odom put it pretty succintly the other night on Lateline; essentially there is no natural fit with Iraq and al Qaeda, and without a US presence to give a common enemy, the Iraqis will drive them out.
There’s an awful lot of tosh spoken about al Qaeda and Iraq, but the proof of the pudding is in the number of foreigners the US detain, and it’s virtually zip. In other words, the opposition from local Sunnis is predominantly secular, and the religious element (mostly Salafi jihadists) is not paid up al Qaeda.
Between the nuances of Iraqi sectarianism there’s little room for Wahabbist fundamentalism, and those who know the facts realise that occupying the country creates the conditions for the problem, it does not solve it.
#748 AL ,
thanks for the links Al , will study them
Check out Nader’s health care policies while you’re there too Ron. He is probably the closest to what we have in Australia, but unfortunately it’s “socialism”.
Call me a wimp, or an Obamabot if it makes you feel good, but at the end of the day things like the following make me feel god about the senator from Illinois.
Al @ 751 – I edit a health information blog which puts me in regular contact with Americans. I’ve many times outlined how our Medicare system works and most initially are envious, but then start using the “s” word. Unfortunately, they’ve become so brainwashed about this that they can’t see past it.
I remember watching an episode of Northern Exposure about the time Hillary came up with her health policy in Bill’s first term, which included a scene that was basically a long diatribe against ’socialized medicine.’ I assume it was paid for by the U.S. health insurance industry.
753
MayoFeral
Ironic isn’t it? They’ve got the most expensive health care in the world, with very mediocre performance indicators, but are scared of ’socialised’ medicine while their Central Bank is rapidly socialising their mortgage industry!
Tell ‘em they need to attack and invade some tinpot country for their own protection and they’ll buy it, tell them they need to bail out Wall Street and they’ll buy it, but tell them they could cut the cost of their healthcare and get better outcomes and they wail in horror!
If it wasn’t so predictably silly it would be funny.
But then they’d be like the Canadians, and they couldn’t stand that! I wonder how much of the anti-socialised medicine attitude comes from their desire to pay out their northern neighbours, no matter the cost.
Kirribilli # 741
your term “policy wonks”.
Then you go to a site for ‘policy wonks’ on Wall Street economics
(mine is no 2 domestic issue & yours one)
But when you do , your ‘cut paste’ will not cut mustard with people who actually understand Wall Street & economics, or
is that why you are reluctant to go
That’s the spirit, Ron.
Al at 731: Excellently made point. Make the warmonger fight his campaign on as many fronts as possible to spread him thin, then blitzkreig the bastard to oblivion.
“I doubt either of these states will turn blue in November, but polls like this could force McCain to spend a lot more time shoring up red states than attacking the purples (much like Howard was forced to do last year)”
———-
Kirri at 741:
“In other words, this is a fascist dictatorship that will go the way of the Third Reich.”
No future tense about it whatsoever, mon ami, suggest you check out a couple of Maureen Farrell’s essays. She’s truly formidable.
http://www.buzzflash.com/farrell/
Afternoon all -
just realised that I’m a misogynist as I’m not supporting Hillary. Must admit it has come as a bit of a shock being the proud owner of a vagina and all, but nevertheless it appears to be the only explanation apparently.
EC , there are a couple of other Red (& Blue as well) States that have surprising trend turnabouts for Obama as well , however there are Red & Blue States but few number , trended the reverse.
Perhaps its alittle early to judge the Polls
Jen 759
lol
You made me spit out my coffee : )
Ron 760
The other point to make is that in the big count, no one cares if you lost really red states by just a few points.
Although Als point at 731 is very valid. Spreading McCain’s already thin money is not a bad idea!
sorry about the coffee Yo ho ho. (Borax`is good for any resulting shirt stains.)
Apart from having all the right Girl’s bits I’m a whizz at laundry tips too.
Fri April 11: The Bros are about to launch their blog.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=Aqv67DI96e9idLeABVDUdiw0vTYC
Thurs April 10: Yes, Virginia, looks can kill.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AqF0hGBr9fdafZojL_yeI4ZX_b4F
Thurs April 10: War without end it is then.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AoArvlqGcXP9e9zP2qKvcYxR_b4F
Ron at 760, “Perhaps its a little early to judge the Polls”
As a Poll Bludger, I unashamedly reserve the right to be a poll judger.
Comes with the territory, Ronaldo(you’re such a star). Helps me kick a goal from time to time too, but I’ll never be in your league, mate. Why, ah’m so ENvious!
#759 – Jen, is it only a personal Vagina Monologue? Or can it be full participation by the bludgers of the Vagina Multilogue?
Wed April 9: To get sympathy these days, a vet’s gotta look like Tom Cruise in ” Born on the 4th of July”.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AtUFkGwMYEf0AV4DVCJjCqol6ysC
Fri April 11: How a neocon cartoonist gets away with playing the Race Card. Henry does a regular cartoon for William “The Bloody” Kristol’s Weekly Standard.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/henrypayne;_ylt=AmsX5iFBwQh0qH7sUZrB0bFW_b4F
Thurs April 10: Whereas Ted Rall is an unabashed Commie Punk!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AvVOdkYJ67em689d0xrxF.RW_b4F
Finns- it’s definitely a monologue. No Clinton supporters invited.
Thurs April 10: Warmonger’s Progress:
Shock and Awe; Puzzlement; Surge; A-MAZE-ment; The Labyrinth; Quagmire; Loss; Humiliating Retreat; Manufacture Gulf of Tonkin-type “incident” in Gulf of Oman; Repeat as necessary with I-ran.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=AsyhhnSnwpcRv3KR_Ka87TxU_b4F :
#767 – No prob. will seek my own Vagina Monologue with Hillary.
Hillaryphilics, this is gonna hurt.
President – WINNER Latest Board Odds from Cbet:
The Kid (firms5c)…………………..1.80
Johnny Bomb-Bomb (steady) ……. 2.85
Brutusina (drifts 50c)……………….5.50
Al @ 731 and EC 758, Montana and Alaska will be won by McCain by at least 15 points. The candidates won’t be seen in either of them. Big wins for Obama in the primaries in those states = depth of support, not breadth. In any event, those polls are about as reliable as the reputable polls that have McCain running within a couple of points of Obama in Mass. and ahead of him in places NJ, Mich. Oregon and Washington.
The only candidate I can think of who ran a “50 state strategy” was Alan Alda’s character in The Left Wing – and look what happened to him! The 50-state strategy is the US equivalent of Kennett campaigning in ALP seats in areas like Dandenong in the 99 Vic election
758
Enemy Combatant
Way back in 2003 (my, how time flies when you’re following a war!) I dubbed it the “changing camels strategy” and it went basically like this:
Having a permanent base in Saudi Arabia has p!ssed off the Wahabbists, given the House of Saud a big headache as it tries to offer social reform (albeit limited), and is no longer close enough to the action. (It was, afterall, to ‘contain’ Saddam after his Kuwait sojourn).
So, here was a great opportunity to pull up stumps, move over the border, and instead of being perched out there in the middle of the desert, they could take control of an entire country, and plop bases all over it.
Hence, the changing camels strategy. Same race, (Middle East hegemony), differenet camel (Iraq).
And lo, it’s come to pass, except the ‘cakewalk’ has turned out to be a nightmare of monstrous proportions.
Excising the neocon cancer is essential if the US is to survive…weakened, yes, but still breathing. Fail, and they’re cactus.
# 748 AL ,
Healthcare. I’ve been through the 3 sites you supplied & the Candidates sites
(but yet to finish some other sites on the subject)
General Observations only
Both Hillary & Obama have better healthcare policys than the Repugs.
Both Hillary and Obama’s sites (at best) are disingenous describing the other Democrats position. So for the rust on supporters for either, the other allegedly has ‘inferior’ policy but neither supporter group gets a full fair comparison.
re Robert Laszewski’s views.
Most of (but not all) of the essential elements of both Hillary’s & Obama’s plans are listed , but ‘presented’ in less than favourable light
If I was either candidate I wouldn’t be happy with him because his conclusion of both Plans is not encouraging. This is not surprising given both candidates ‘hit’ the Insurance industries pockets (Hillary far more so & so he was alittle tougher on Hillary) because this guy also is an ex senior Manager of a top 10 US Insurance Company.
His example quoted of a 1 year mandated plan is hardly time to assess it & in any event it appears the subsidies are inadequate to make the premiums affordable & therefore an amateurish method to undermine mandating.
I realize the guy does not reflect your opinions but his, & I’m responding to his.
Thanks for the other 2 sites which were very informative , epecially if one reads both as one. These & other sites I’ve so far looked at should clarify following:
Hillary is for mandating for all citizens. Obama is for mandating for children only.
Hillary’s plan costings are $110 billion. Obama’s $50 to 65 billion , the difference partly due to coverage & the balance to savings with cuts
Hillary may use the current Congress staff Health Insurance as an ideal model. Obama will actually introduce a new Government run Insurance business for some citizens competing with private Co.’s but with similar model requirements.
Hillary offers ‘universality’ (as does John Edwards) for all , with some clever enforcement. Obama offers adults the choice to insure or not
Both offer ‘affordability”. The details of which I’m looking at , as well as the comparative quantum of subsidies and tax credits being offered.
We all agree the ‘oz’ model is the best , but politics in the US will not allow it
I’d have to say “universiality” of healthcare IS a fundamental core of Labor Health Policy principle and John Edwards & Hillary have it and Obama for adults does not. So in principle I support the Labor way (Hillarys as being better)
(but subject to the crucial ‘affordability’ & subsidy questions that should be examined )
thanks
ps/ if Obama supporters disagree ,
CfE,
Latest Rasmussen Reports polling (comparing like for like rather than bringing in other pollsters’ biases):
Massachussets: Obama +7 over McCain (Kerry won by 25, inflated margin possibly due to favourite son)
New Jersey: McCain +1 over Obama (Kerry won by 7%)
Michigan: McCain +3 over Obama (Kerry won by only 3%, and you would expect at this stage the DNC’s decision to strip them of delegates to be hurting the Dem vote)
Oregon: Obama +6 over McCain (Kerry won by 4%)
Washington: Obama +5 over McCain (Kerry won by 7%)
Now, those polls are not overly outside the box of what you would expect for the campaign at this stage. New Jersey is possibly a little surprise, but given the proximity to NY (hence strong Clinton support in the major cities) as well as lots of regional GOP support in the south, and it’s not too far outside the realm of possibility.
Any wins in primaries or caucuses don’t mean anything come general election time, as much brighter minds than mine have shown statistically over past elections. But the point is that IF Obama is that close to McCain now and he hasn’t started the general election campaign, and even if Obama never visits those states in the election proper, McCain will need to make sure that he is at least shoring up his base before he can launch attacks on the purple states such as PA, OH, FL, MI etc. I don’t really doubt that the GOP will win MT and AL in November, but given McCain’s already stretched finances, actually having to pay any attention to them at all is going to hurt his campaign in purple states.
The other side is to compare the historical financial contributions by state to the campaigns. While a lot of money trickles into GOP coffers through the big states of CA, FL and TX, if they are struggling for support at this early stage, then political donations will be slow making it more difficult to build momentum towards the general election. A good site for comparing state by state contributions appears to be this one. I was just having a look over it and it looked pretty good. There’s a lot of good stuff hidden throughout the site too.
http://www.opensecrets.org/bigpicture/statetotals.asp?cycle=2006
Ron said …
Ron said …
Don’t count me in on that assumption.
Finns – given that Hillary also has one (one assumes) does that make her a misogynist too?
Something to soothe the soul.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Pg-HR2bmvU
There was some talk earlier about KD Lang being a cultural icon. I’m not sure what the crossover is between the KD Lang fans and Henry Rollins fans but there is an interesting article in The Age on Henry.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/people/rollins-back-wielding-words-as-weapons/2008/04/11/1207856830980.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
His description of his treatment by Australian and American officials while he has been traveling is interesting in the context of the discussion on here about Tibet and freedom etc.
Hmmm, it can buy up to 10 BHPs.
China’s forex reserve tops 1.68 trillion USD
(Xinhua) – Updated: 2008-04-11 19:26
China’s foreign exchange reserve reached US$ 1.68 trillion at the end of March, up 39.94 percent from the same period last year, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced in Beijing Friday.
A total of 153.9 billion dollars was added to the forex reserve in the first quarter of 2008, an increment of 18.2 billion dollars more than a year ago, said the central bank.
Growth of the forex reserve has been slowing since the beginning of this year, according to Xinhua’s calculation.
China’s forex reserve rose about 60 billion dollars in January and 57 billion dollars in February.
In March alone, the forex reserve rose 35 billion dollars, 9.7 billion dollars less than the same month of last year.
Elizabeth Edwards ABC TV interview 9/4/08
1/ publicly backs Hillary’s Health planover Obama’s
“Edwards said she believed Clinton’s health-care plan was more inclusive than that of Obama’s.
You need that universality in order to get the cost savings”
2/ “Edwards said she thought letting the race end at the convention was a good idea.”
MY CHALLENGE to Obama supporters , what do you think of Elizabeth Edwards
You have been unrestrained with your venom for Hillary and anyone who supports anything about Hillary including ‘Hillary’ blogers ,what about Elizabeth.?
http://www.abcnews.go.com/GMA/Vote2008/story?id=4617236&page=1
r/Ron-
“MY CHALLENGE to Obama supporters , what do you think of Elizabeth Edwards
You have been unrestrained with your venom for Hillary and anyone who supports anything about Hillary including ‘Hillary’ blogers ,”
Venom?? Surely we can elect to support Obama over Hillary without you feeling so personally disturbed and affronted.
I’m sure there are many people who are perfectly reasonable individuals who support Hillary. It’s just that she should not be POTUS.
I’m not personally disturbed and affronted at all by the venom that
alot of Obama supporters use against Hillary , pro Hillary media articles & writers & blogers here. It was a statement.
I was simply inviting those Obama supporters to be as consistent against Elizabeth Edwards. That was always too hard a call
780
The Finnigans
That their reserves should keep rising while the yuan appreciates is rather gravity defying, and further evidence that the USD is very much on the nose.(No surprises there! LOL)
On another issue entirely, the rumours around Wall Street are that the Credit Default Swaps market is in serious peril as hedge funds were big originators as well as borrowers. (We’ve been seeing the fallout here all this week, Opes and Lift Capital for example). In other words, the big investment banks will be on the other end of this, and as we’ve just seen with Bear, they’re a tad fragile, to put it mildly.
There’s plenty more brown stuff heading for the fan.
Two gaffes yesterday. For some bizarre reason Bill stokes the Bosnia fire and adds a few more lies to the pile: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1, and equally odd, Obama talks to Californians about why Pennsylvanians are rednecks: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/obama-no-surprise-that-ha_b_96188.html.
God bless his soul, good ole Greg Sheridan has got it right for a change. The Beijing University is the cradle of movements against existing regime or authority. From the 1919 May Fourth movement against the then feudal Manchu Empire, to anti japanese invasion and last but at least the 1989 Tiananmen movement. This really makes Rudd’s speech and where he made it so remarkable and gutsy. Is he planting the seed for a new movement by the current students of Beijing University to the current regime? We do live in an interesting time.
“PM makes great leap on China”
Greg Sheridan, Foreign editor | April 12, 2008
LU Kewen, as our Prime Minister is known to tens of millions in Mandarin, is usually no Red Guard. In fact, he is a counter-revolutionary, having written his honours thesis admiringly on the famous Chinese dissident Wei Jingsheng, who wrote a brilliant large character wall poster on the “fifth modernisation”: democracy, which China’s leaders have refused to embrace as part of their economic modernisation……………. Similarly, his Mandarin language and his undeniable love of Chinese culture provided the best possible context for his harder messages to Beijing. But, still, there was no guarantee at all that the Chinese would not react by cancelling his high-level appointments and humiliating him.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23524628-7583,00.html
Finns
I have never noticed Greg Sheridan get it right before , has there been an earlier occasion
Michael Carlton also got it right when he said:
“KEVIN Rudd’s quirky little greeting to George W. Bush – half salute, half wave – caused a frightful ruckus. “Conduct unbecoming, sniffed “Please-Call-Me-Brendan-I-Prefer-Brendan”……….. George Brandis, a Liberal senator from Queensland, was most put out. “When the Prime Minister went to call upon the Queen he didn’t make the customary neck bow,” he sniffed…………
We must hope that Kevin gets it right in Beijing. The traditional approach to the Chinese leadership used to be to crawl into the presence on all fours, eyes fixed firmly upon the carpet, waiting apprehensively for a favour to be dispensed or the blow to fall”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/mike-carlton/whos-laughing-all-the-way-to-the-bank-now/2008/04/11/1207856825785.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1
Instead, he stood up in the lions’ den. Remarkable and Gutsy.
“KEVIN Rudd’s quirky little greeting to George W. Bush – half salute, half wave -
An Australian may interpret the half salute, half wave as being only half impressed with George Bush
It strikes me that the intellectual audacity of Kevin07 to say the words AND the historic setting for them is likely to be remembered ,
and in turn causing the fundamental “message” to be long remembered
Edgey Chris at 771: “…..EC 758, Montana and Alaska will be won by McCain by at least 15 points”
Chris, I know you are connected up the wazoo with Sep business associates but your above comment leads reasonable people to believe that you also have more than a passing acquaintance with that Pommie perception polisher, Lily Gilders.
In the contest for a US Senate seat, “The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Stevens(GOP incumbent) is essentially even with Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich(Dem). Stevens currently attracts 46% of the vote while Begich earns 45%. Four percent (4%) say they’d vote for a third party option while 5% are not sure.”
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/alaska/election_2008_alaska_senate
Chris, I’m prepared to wager you a bottle of quality plonk that Johnny Bomb-Bomb will not win Alaska by double figures over Obi, let alone “by at least 15 points”.
Wanna play, big boy?
Kirribilli at 772, enjoyed your “changing camels mid-quagmire” assessment of the Sep-MIC’s wars without end.
If you, sir, were at the wheel of one of your interstate vans which bore a rear slogan, “you are passing another fox”, a veracious defence could be mounted in the event of a copyright infringement plaint. LOFL!!
#790 Chris ,
you should insist the prize (’a bottle of quality plonk’) is the most expensive quality one , so that afterwards you can fully enjoy drinking that quality.
(perhaps with a caveat of a no ‘Perot’ type candidate also standing)