The first federal Newspoll in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 59-41. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has widened from 60 per cent to 64 per cent, having gone 73-7 to 70-10 to 73-9 over the past there surveys.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Newspoll: 59-41
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494 Comments
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Barry 301
I don’t wish to be seen as being pro-Labor on this one, as I think that both sides have had their share of rogues, as current NSW Labor in Wooloongong proves. That being said there was considerable evidence of what is now defined as official corruption on the part of Joh in Queensland. You are getting “not being convicted” mixed up with “not doing it”. Remember that he was first charged with perjury and only acquitted the trial was aborted when the jury was deadlocked. He was never found “not guilty”. Later it emerged that all of the jury wished to convict except the foreman, Luke Shaw, who had been a leader of the National Party youth wing but failed to disclose the fact while being empanelled (itself arguably an offence, though he was never charged.)
Read the Fitzgerald inquiry, which has a neat appendix sumarising findings on the main figures, including Joh, Russ Hinze and others. The alleged perjury related to conflicting evidence Joh gae to two different inquiries into corruption adn prostitution in Queensland, while he was under oath. If convicted, he faced a jail sentence of up to 14 years on the perjury charge, which was the most serious offence he could have been cahrged with from the Fitzgerald evidence.
Joh also received a considerable amount of services and goods for his rural property from Sir Les Theiss, then a major figure in the Queensland consutrction industry with many government contracts, without ever explaining how the goods and servics were paid for. However after the controversy surrounding the first trial being aborted, the Attorney General elected not to proceed further.
Not wanting to beleive something doesn’t change the facts.
Download the report for yourself if you wish; the sections on dealing with a culture of corruption are still a great piece of thinking about reform.
http://www.cmc.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp?pgid=10877
Glen, I have the good fortune to know a good many politicians – from the left, from the right, from the past and from the present too. The good ones, regardless of their party or their leanings, have one thing in common: a positive desire to make things better for the public combined with good decision-making ability. They are not ideological or theoretical. They are practical, energetic and straightforward.
The thing I wonder about is why you cast yourselves as ‘conservatives’. The world is changing very quickly. Surely, you have to see yourselves as being up to the challenge of the future. If you don’t see yourselves this way, how can you expect anyone else to see you that way. In calling yourselves ‘conservative’ you are more or less declaring that you are happier looking back in time and, in a sense, are resistant to change.
You have to change your worldview. You are making the same mistake the left made for a long time: expecting the public to eventually come to their senses and fall in with your vision of reality. What is really required is for you to come to terms with the expectations of the public. Afterall, you need them more than they need you!
Conservatives at least can appreciate the past use what worked and not simply throw it all away. One cannot understand the future without understanding the past! Conservatives aren’t just keeping things the way they are, Howard reformed the Australian economy he didn’t just sit on his behind and twiddle his thumbs. Conservatives aren’t resistant to change but they prefer a more pragmatic approach to change so as to avoid the dangers that change usually has in store. Call it cautious whatever you like but the fact is being a conservative means you are just as capable of being up to the challenge of the future because one can appreciate the past, learn from it, take what works and then try to formulate change without going over the top as many on the left tend to do why look at Gough!
The expectations of the public are simple, they want good stable government, one that can manage the economy, give them prosperity yet acknowledge their social concerns at the same time. They really want a Moderate party one not too far left and no too far right that is why the ALP and Liberal Party have drifted to the centre in order to win elections, the best example is Rudd remodeling the ALP as a Centre party and not putting an emphasis on its hard left roots so it could win government but that doesn’t mean there aren’t hard leftists in the Rudd Cabinet!
I am now enlightened. Being a conservative is to exist in a state of theo-political sainthood; to be omniscient, wise, omnipotent, benevolent and dynamic.
How could I have been so Godless, deluded, self absorbed and narcistic as to have denied this self evident truth? How could I have hitherto devil worshipped in a Netherworld of malevolent socialism?
Glen has shown me the stairway to Heaven and placed my foot on the first rung.
I am saved.
You’re dreaming, Glen.
I have returned from an incredibly expensive and worse incredibly boring dinner.
Only to find Glen here.
If Glen had been at the dinner, at least I could have thrown a knife or two. Not only that, John the constant, representing himself as the reasonable caller, on Delroy, as I tuned in the crystal set, is busy condemning Rudd, for any thing which engages his mind. Gave himself away on this occasion, identifying himself as being from a Mt Eliza club. Kevin Andrew’s territory springs to mind.
It really is too boring.
I have noted with interest that the expat commentators are upbeat, positive and welcoming of the initiatives of our PM.
Unlike Glen, ilk, the Australian papers and such local commentators as Rod Quinn, for one, on ABC Radio.
351 Socrates, all the information about the Fitzgerald Inquiry was posted on the Queensland thread too but to no avail. Easier to not read it, not understand it and keep asking the same questions I’m afraid. You’d swear that all the search engines in the world were just put into computers to confirm the prejudices of Tories.
Glens carrying on about past wars, the greens are carrying on about channel deepening and Australia doesn’t even make the chart when it comes to renewable energy.
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10961890
Glen
your definition of Conservative may be correct but the past Coalition government was neither conservative or liberal on a number of issues.
Firstly, you argue that conservatives value the lessons of history. So why did Howard involve us in a war overseas at the behest of the US that was none of our business? Most commentators in the lead up to Iraq drew obvious comparisons with Vietnam – and their fears have been realised.
As a result of Vietnam, the ADF has clear guidelines on planning for conflict. These include setting perametres for failure and withdrawal e.g. if it costs us this, if these things are not achieved etc. The guidelines were thrown out the window. Conservative governments do not do that; they value expert advice.
Conservative governments value the rule of law – trashed in the case of Dr Haneef, Tampa, etc. – and individual rights – removed under Howard’s security legislation. We really don’t know to what extent these laws have impacted on people because they put aside habeas corpus – the eleven men on trial in Victoria at present for terrorism offences whereabouts were, until their trial, only known to a few people and thus their human rights could not be enforced.
Conservative governments believe in small government, yes – and Howard oversaw Australia’s biggest ever public service bureacracy.
Conservative governments believe in limiting bureaucratic red tape, especially for business. Howard introduced GST and WorkChoices, both of which imposed huge paperwork requirements on businesses (I know of one medium sized business – about 150 employees – who had to employ someone full time simply to deal with the GST, from which they were exempt anyway).
Conservative governments are rational in their approach, putting data before emotions. Yet on numerous occasions Howard acted on ideology and ignored the data – and continued to do so in the case of climate change until the very last minute.
Conservative governments believe in real choice. They don’t tilt the balance in favour of private over public. Howard not only blackmailed people into taking out private health (and I do not use that term lightly) but deliberately ran down state schools, vilifying them at every opportunity.
Simple labels don’t fit reality. Whatever else Howard’s government was, it was not a true conservative/liberal government. Part of the problem thus left for the Opposition is their lack of identity.
Oh and conservative governments respect the Constitution – they don’t whinge about the restrictions placed on them by the High Court or State rights.
They also uphold the unwritten rules of Government, in our case those inherited from the Westminster system – quaint old (conservative) things such as Ministerial responsibility, where ‘not knowing’ ‘not being told’ are reasons for resignation in themselves.
A true conservative party might be a good thing in Australia, but we don’t have one. We either have a hard right ideologically driven Liberal party or an agrarian socialist party or a series of variations of the rabid populism of One Nation.
I might be able to admire a party which was truly conservative (or liberal).
359 and 360
zoom
Great points zoom.
Glen is like a broken record as the old saying goes (not sure what the modern day CD/DVD equivilent is) and will repeat the same stuff over and over and over and over and….
If Rudd was a member of the Liberal party whilst still holding similar views to the ones we are familiar with he would be lauded by Glen and other conservatives as a visionary and a wonderful leader.
#339 – as it happened I was in Seoul the week before the new government was inaugurated (like the US, a couple of months elapse between the election and inauguration). They have obviously learned something from their Western political counterparts, because one incoming minister was quoted as blaming something (the fire that destroyed a major national monument) on the neglect of the previous government, and another said something to the effect of “we’ve had a look at the books and things are much worse than we thought”.
Brendan is touring the servos while Rudd is in China telling the Chinese they have a trouble with human rights. One tour made a man look weak the other tour made a man look strong. Rudd underlined his name as the real deal in speaking up in China.
Then again we know he knows the whole China/Tibet diplomatic strategy backwards and knows as good as any how to deal with China.
China really needs to make the most of this visit by Rudd to show some change of heart. Surely they must be aware that the protests of the torch tour is probably only the beginning and, will only get worse once closer to the Olympics and create larger troubles during. The Olympics could turn out to be a PR disaster for them as TV coverage focuses on sundry human rights abuses in the country.
China must also be alert that the focus on Tibet will only be the beginning of newer harder focus on China human rights issues from now on. People have woken up, China is the flavour of the month. Strategically they should want to short cut this now before they lose total control of the issue. There are the troubles in Dafur which China is basically supporting. That will be the next re-focus and embarrassment for China in the build up to the Olympics.
The best way would to relent on Tibet, put in some plan and undertaking etc that deals with world concerns.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/swan_makes_meal_of_sardine/
364
I wonder if most of the posters on that blog realise how much money their employers poured in to the ALP coffers to get rid of the last regime?
That business believed in the economic management skills of the Howard Costello partnership has surely been debunked by now?
Where are their cushy jobs? Why is all the praise for JHW coming from overseas?
Those at the coal face here knew what was going on.
Bolt won’t like the budget no matter what was in it JOM. The same as he loved every Costello budget no matter what was in it. Nothing to see there.
JoM, if the growth rate is going to remain about 3% with only a 25% chance of recession then what is Bolt bleating about? I’d have thought the story would have been that Bolt’s predictions of disaster are wide of the mark and he’d be apologizing for all his demonising of Swan’s ability as Treasurer.
364 – JoM pointing me to Bolt is like me pointing you to Phillip Adams, a total waste of time and effort. I don’t need to read Bolt to know what stance he will take. Now, can you point me to a genuinely objective political commentator?
Why are any of you bothering to click a link on a JoM post. What did you expect to find???
the tories are struck between a rock and a hard place. if they say the economy is bad, then that means they left it in a bad state. If they say it is good, they are saying that Swan is managing it OK. Unfortnately for them, in their desparation to cling to power they gave very mixed messages about the economy, so its no surprise they’re struggling
In reading Bolt you may as well read Abbott. No point in reading him unless you are a LNP supporter and are looking for a moral boost.
Beats me why Bolt doesn’t go for preselection somewhere it is not as though the party is over flowing with talent at the moment.
Too bad there wasn’t a questioning of Costello over the years.
369 Quite simply Andrew the budget is coming up shortly and Milne,Bolt,JoM, Nelson and most of the Tory world are of the delusion that this will be the beginning of the Tory Budget bounce back, the opportunity of the year to turn their fortunes around, the end of the Rudd honeymoon and the beginning of the Tory fightback.
I don’t believe it will be any of those things but intend to enjoy the full extent of the Tory embarrassment on budget night. It just helps to be forewarned of what their delusions are before the actual night arrives.
Isn’t it amazing how history repeats? The LNP and their core supporters were waiting for last years Budget bounce and it never came and here they are seemingly prepared to wait for it yet again!
373 Al that is exactly what Nelson meant this week.
QUESTION:
You want to Prime Minister, how are you going to turn that polling around?
DR NELSON:
You watch.
http://www.liberal.org.au/info/news/detail/20080408_NelsonDoorstopLauncestonJohnButtonOlympictorchrelay.php
Where are their cushy jobs? Why is all the praise for JHW coming from overseas?
Good point onimod. The remaining rabble must be extremely pissed that the Rodent is receiving all the cash and kudos, while they’re left – a broken and essentially leaderless mob – to carry the can. Not that I have any sympathy for them.
#372
There will be some very damaging examples of pork barrelling and general financial mismanagement under Howard/Costello that Labor are keeping under wraps. I don’t expect Swan will mention them in his budget speech either but once Nelson has completed his right of reply speech (where he will tell us that Labor have been mean to cut spending here and there) Rudd, Gillard, Swan and Tanner will come out with all guns blazing. It won’t be a pretty sight for the conservatives.
Had a quick flick to Pies’ blog.
No mention of Rudd’s speech at Bejing Uni, probably because Rudd proved Pies 100% wrong and showed he was his own man not China’s.
So next blog will be about Heinert as he dodges admitting he was wrong about Rudd
I just can’t believe the Tory faith in ‘fairies at the bottom of the garden’ theory. By some miracle on budget night there is going to be a seismic shift in political thinking and the polls will all turn around based on petrol prices, grocery prices and interest rates. Nelson will lead them to victory and they will all live happily everafter.
Sorry Tories that script seems just a little removed from reality for me.
Why do Nelson, Bolt and Milne subscribe to this rubbish and encourage their readers to believe such nonsense?
#378
“Why do Nelson, Bolt and Milne subscribe to this rubbish and encourage their readers to believe such nonsense?”
Could it be that they’ve got nothing else to offer?
I can’t wait to see the killer blow that Milne has been hiding in his sleeve. A list of grocery prices taken the day after the election, it must be a couple of kilometers long. The Petrol price at each bowser in Australia would also be magnificent and a lonely page with the interest rate as at the day after the election.
All these apparently are to be compared with the price of each item on budget night and the effect apparently will be devastating for Swan and Rudd especially as it is such a surprise that only people who read his column or have access to the internet know about his grand revolutionary tactic.
It will only confirm the inflation environment left by the previous govt and hence the budget.
381 Kina but to quote the good doctor,”You watch”.
I haven’t read the article but Bolt apparently says there is no genocide in Tibet. Ok then we all have nothing to worry about. Silly us. Bolt’s been to Tibet and can assure us of this.
Who said anything about genocide in Tibet? Highest figure I have seen is 100 (purported) demonstrators killed. Hardly genocide.
But everyone of their articles is “well researched” according to their faithful worshippers.
Can you people please stop referring to boltHEADS Cro-Magnon views.
#383
Barry Cassidy this morning also indicated that he thought suggestions of genocide were over the top.
I think this quote from Clive Crook, in the Financial Times , with a few small amendments sums up the Liberals problem nicely.
By the way. Check out the picture of the Clintons. They say a picture says a thousand words. lol
http://www.byronbayinstitute.net/Articles/Tidbits.html
I thought they were referring to cultural genocide?
OT, but this is pretty good too.
If you ever testify in court, you might wish you could have been as sharp as this policeman. He was being cross-examined by a defense attorney during a felony trial. The lawyer was trying to undermine the policeman’s credibility…
Q: ‘Officer — did you see my client fleeing the scene?’
A: ‘No sir. But I subsequently observed a person matching the description of the offender, running several blocks away.’
Q: ‘Officer — who provided this description?’
A: ‘The officer who responded to the scene.’
Q: ‘A fellow officer provided the description of this so-called offender. Do you trust your fellow officers?’
A: ‘Yes, sir. With my life.’
Q: ‘With your life? Let me ask you this then officer. Do you have a room where you change your clothes in preparation for your daily duties?’
A: ‘Yes sir, we do!’
Q: ‘And do you have a locker in the room?’
A: ‘Yes sir, I do.’
Q: ‘And do you have a lock on your locker?’
A: ‘Yes sir.’
Q: ‘Now why is it, officer, if you trust your fellow officers with your life, you find it necessary to lock your locker in a room you share with these same officers?’
A: ‘You see, sir — we share the building with the court complex, and sometimes lawyers have been known to walk through that room.’
Thomas and Triton: Here are some figures:
Reprisals for the 1959 National Uprising alone involved the elimination of 87,000 Tibetans by the Chinese count, according to a Radio Lhasa broadcast of 1 October 1960. Tibetan exiles claim that 430,000 died during the Uprising and the subsequent 15 years of guerrilla warfare.
Some 1.2 million Tibetans are estimated to have been killed by the Chinese since 1950.
The International Commission of Jurists concluded in its reports, 1959 and 1960, that there was a prima facie case of genocide committed by the Chinese upon the Tibetan nation. These reports deal with events before the Cultural Revolution.
Chinese Justice: Protest and Prisons
Exile sources estimate that up to 260,000 people died in prisons and labour camps between 1950 and 1984…
Source: Free Tibet Campaign
Steve at 380, Milne’s strategy has been transparent since day one. He has tried to fashion a narrative that Rudd promised lower petrol and grocery problems, and that’s what he’s going to judge the government. Rudd, in fact, never made such promises so its all dwarf fantasy
sorry i meant prices not problems. why cant you edit here?
387 Scorpio
http://www.byronbayinstitute.net/Articles/Tidbits.html
scroll 2/3rds of the way down the page to see where Glen gets if all from.
(hint: letter from Bronwyn Bishop)
For those you don’t drop in on Crikey from time to time, a gentleman over there has suggested we call Dr Nelson “Hopoate” because he is a single digit man.
Does anyone know the answer to my question from [244]?
Do referendums on constitutional change have to be yes/no questions or could there be a referendum that allowed a preferential vote on three options (eg. status quo, direct election, parliamentary appointment) ?
384
Thomarse – genocide is more than just mass murder, there is such a thing call cultural genocide. The Communists have moved hundreds of thousands of Han Chinese to Tibet in order to swamp the remaining native Tibetans and to destroy their culture and to ensure all the jobs go to the Han Chinese. Why do you think they built that railway to Tibet to ship more bloody Han Chinese into Tibet!
Its so sad that trade can stop us from criticisng the Communist Party of China, it’s a bloody dictatorship the people don’t chose who’ll be President only their Politburo it’s a disgrace I for one hope that China will be a Democracy one day but until then ill back Taiwan over China anyday, the Tibetan issue is a no brainer. If Rudd really was upset with the treatment of the Tibetans then he should raise it with Hu Jintao or the Chinese Premier not a bunch of students that’s a cop out!
Personally id rather not pursue an FTA with the Communist Chinese, i’d rather have an FTA with India!
shameless stealing for one of DeeCee’s posts over at http://www.politicsau.com/
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/libs-hope-answer-to-woes-is-online/2008/04/05/1207249537261.html
Boggles the mind
notes to WB:
the politicsau link needs an update
there should read three in the intro to this thread
Odds on Opposition Leader change this week.
http://news.brisbanetimes.com.au/odds-shorten-on-turnbull-leading-libs/20080410-254j.html
Julie Bishop on good odds at $7.
‘Christopher Pyne, Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey were the only senior former Howard government ministers who could use a computer, a Liberal party source said’
LOL
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/libs-hope-answer-to-woes-is-online/2008/04/05/1207249537261.html
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