The latest Newspoll shows an increase in Labor’s federal two-party lead to 61-39 from 59-41 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 73-9 to 71-10. No word yet on the Liberal leadership preference questions which Newspoll was apparently asking respondents over the weekend (see the update on the previous Morgan post).
UPDATE: Graphic now available. The favoured Liberal leader is Malcolm Turnbull (25 per cent) ahead of Peter Costello (23 per cent), Brendan Nelson (15 per cent), Julie Bishop (13 per cent) and Tony Abbott (6 per cent). Support for the three proposed leadership teams (Nelson/Bishop, Turnbull/Robb, Costello/Turnbull) divided about evenly, while Turnbull leads Wayne Swan as “preferred Treasurer” 35 per cent to 29 per cent. In spite of everything, Brendan Nelson’s satisfaction rating is a presentable 38 per cent.
484 Comments
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300 david – I too thought each minister performed very well indeed and were a credit to Australia. That’s exactly what was going through my mind as I watched and listened to them. Does that make my contribution ’small minded’? I think not.
Vera #297,
Loved your comments and agree with you wholeheartedly.
The NAB today increased its variable interest rate by 0.1%.
I’m not an economist or accountant and am pretty ordinary in all things mathmatical. There is something I don’t understand, and maybe someone on this blog can give me a simple (very)explanation.
The Reserve Bank sets the interest rate and we are told it is increased to lower demand for money, therefore reducing funds available to the public and business and thereby lowering inflation. I understand the logic.
But if interest rates are so increased, we pay more for money borrowed in real dollars. Who gets to keep those extra real dollars we pay? If the lenders (banks) do, presumably the money they have lent is theirs, or they in turn have contracted to borrow it at fixed rates. Presumably they are not the idiots I and I suspect others are. Thus they receive a gratuitous increase in income.
The banks would say they need the extra income to cover their sub prime losses (whatever that means) but that is not the reason the Reserve increased interest rates.
Then the banks set additional margins, as the NAB has just done, usually claiming it is to offset sub prime losses.
Am I missing something?
GB (301) I respect your opinion on how you say each minister performed so no I do not regard Post #301 as ’small minded’. Please go back to Posts # 297 & #300, read them carefully and then you might understand the point I was making. I credit you as an intelligent person.
David Charles #300
Name me one decent Howard minister. One that knew nothing of the lies about Tampa, the children overboard, WMD, the hurt Workchoices was causing etc, There are many more examples, playing the race card be it Aboriginals, refugees or Muslems before each election to divide this country, my country, for whom I and my father and my father’s father served wearing Australia’s military uniforms with pride.
My grandfather was one of those who fought in the Great War and he remains there under the ground. Dad was a Rat of Tobruck and I am proud of the years I spent in the RAN.
So don’t you dare call my opinions “small minded” 100000+ brave Aussies have died so I may have freedom of speech to voice my opinions be they small or otherwise. That’s called democracy.
Howard the dictator is no more
Lest we forget
Good for you Vera, the ANZAC ledgend will no longer be tainted or manipulated by Howard and his goons for their discusting political means. Many great Aussies fought and died so we can enjoy our freedoms, freedoms that most countries don’t have. Howard has gone and now we can rebuild our country into something we can be proud of once more.
Lest we forget.
Sinowestie
Cheers, I was one pissed off Pusser (navy talk for sailor) there for a while but I’ve calmed down now.
Sniping, condecending hypocritical remarks like those at #300 make my blood boil!
Scorpio, you may be interested that I can report even greater numbers attending the Brighton Jetty Dawn Service.
I have not read any of the the thread, as yet.
I am truly perplexed. I like to attend. To pay homage and my respects. But. It is so difficult.
I went, before it was an event, because I meant it. The numbers were few, once upon a time. That was sad, but it seemed more sincere, somehow. It is intriguing that so many turn up, but for what, exactly?
Songs were sung, but few knew the words.
I have, I must say, been an unhappy attendee, in the last decade, Feeling myself to be an unwilling statistic to be used in the history wars.
I am not comfortable, still.
#299 Rod says:
“You missed this pearler from Downers speech.
‘In the Vietnam era, the war was lost – not on the battlefields but in the media and in the university campuses.’”
Downer is a soft cock!
It’s so nice not to have Howard’s small mindedness and nastiness and bigotry anymore.
Or his terminal unease with both himself and other people, especially his laugh, it was just a bit too forced and unnatural.
Vera, in your experience, what was the general view in the Navy towards Howard et al?
Fulvio
The way I understand it on interest rates is that when the reserve bank increases interest rates it increases the rate banks borrow at. Thus the banks do not benefit from any increase in interest rates, the margin between the rate at which they borrow and which they lend should remain the same regardless of any increase or decrease in rates.
However, the sub prime debacle has seen the availabilty of cash decreased world wide, which means that there is now a premium on borrowed money which the banks are passing on.
There is one part I don’t understand but, and that is our interest rates are 2-3% above most of the OECD, therefore we should be attracting a lot of extra investment income which should make our money supply easier for the banks and these extra increases like the NAB’s unneccessary.
Why does not the Future Fund lend the banks a billion or three each?
‘Future’ Fund (really a PS/military superannuation fund, but FF appeals to people who think it is for the ‘future’ of all) would make good interest and banks would not have to raise interest rates above the RBA mandated increases. this way we would have a real Future Fund’
FF could also take up an issue of shares from the banks, acquiring these at a good price.
310 Just me
And we no longer have to listen to that dull dead voice! Yay!
The right whingers though have noticed a fatal flaw in Rudd’s public speaking–he licks his lips. This becomes ‘lizard-like lip licking.’ on Pies’ and Dolt’s blogs. After reading this I took note and yup, every so often out shoots his tongue and licks his lips. That should disappear as Rudd settles further into the PM role. I have a feeling he has some shyness? Hence the rapid delivery & ll?
Fulvio & Rod,
It’s also another nail in the coffin of “Howard being an economic genious”. The interest charged by the Banks in being the lowest in over 30 years is not because of the Government but because Banks were able to borrow, over seas, at a much lower rate than the Reserve Bank’s rates (sub prime). Which means that the interest rates on loans were %1 to %1.5 lower then they would have been normally, before deregulation of the Financial Institutions, by Keating.
The lower interest rates were Globally lower, not because of the Howard (genious??)
Thanks for that Rod.
Crikey, that is a lovely War Memorial at Brighton though. I have some great pictures of my children standing near it.
I also enjoyed visiting the museam at the old Town Hall. It features HMAS Glenelg I think. A Corvette. My dad served on Corvettes during WW11.
They were tough cookies, those who served on them. They also needed a strong stomach because they were quite fast but very narrow and rolled around quite a bit.
My Grandfather served at the Western Front, winning a DCM at a place called “Pollygon Wood”. I looked up that battle. It was horrific.
He was a stretcher bearer. At one stage, he was the only bearer left alive & being a large, very strong man, he was carrying out wounded from “no-man’s land” on his back.
His Medical Records go into more than three pages. He caught everything imaginable & suffered terribly from “trench foot” as well as having been gassed.
He deserved a medal just for the personal suffering alone but the Citation for his Award makes my head spin. Officers were given VC’s for far less. He was just a Corporal.
I have been able to download all his Military Records as well as my fathers from the intertubes. These are the types of thoughts you should keep in mind when you attend a service like that.
Many of our relations served in all theatres of war, some not coming back and it is good th think about them and remember their sacrifice.
Shaun Carney in the Age today makes the point the any opposition leader would struggle at the moment. He then talks about Nelson’s single digit approval- its not approval its PPM, why cant commentators get it right?? He then makes the stupid point the the 2PP is where it is expected post-election- I think a 8% swing is NOT whay would be expected
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/shaun-carney/2008/04/25/1208743241801.html
304 david charles – David I understand what you are getting at but why should ANZAC Day be exempted from the very right the diggers fought for ie freedom of speech – the freedom to express a partisan point of view if one desires without being criticised for doing so. Sure criticise the sentiment if you disagree with it but don’t try and stifle someone for expressing it on the very day we commemorate those who preserved that right for us.
Gary Bruce #318
I am not going to stifle any opinions expressed that I disagree with. Anyway I notice Vera has exercised an overegged right of reply and others on the thread have supported her. I sincerely (and without wanting to ’snipe’) believed my point had merit. I am pleased that ministers in the Federal government including the Prime Minister are talking so positively about the feats of Australian troops on the Western Front in resisting Ludendorf’s Spring offensive during 1918. I don’t want to get into a slanging match with anyone about whether or not persons in past governments were ‘decent’ or not and certainly not in the context of a discussion about Anzac Day celebrations. I suppose if that makes me appear less ‘decent’ than those who think they know better than me then I will live with that. Thank you for the courtesy of your response.
Just me #310
It’s a while since I was in the navy but hubby is still active in Reserves and he’s a Labour man. I was a lot younger then and my fellow sailors and I were more interested in footy, cricket, getting on the grog having a good time with mates when we were off duty. I don’t recall anyone talking politics much in fact a lot probably wouldn’t have bothered voting if they didn’t have to. We were young and carefree then. We swore allegiance to Queen and country and that was the extent of politics for some.
The story goes that the military vote consevative but I notice in Afganastan when Kev dropped in there were a couple of diggers with Kevin 07 T shirts and they all seemed pleased to see him (as they used to be when Howard visited though i must admit.)
During the election campaigne Labour promised free heath care for immediate family members of the armed services personnel. That would be popular I should imagine.
Vera @305,
There were plenty of decent people in the Howard Govt in my view. And, I might add, the present Govt hasn’t been in power long enough to allow any informed view as to whether they are “decent” or not.
Moreover, if me saying this antagonises you, that’s just tough!
You are such a sadsack David Charles.
Lighten up a bit. Howard and Downer claimed the high ground on National Security could only be held by the Liberals (or the UAP before them). In order to press home this contention Downer, in collusion with a couple of “right thinking” academics back in 2005 created the myth of the “cowardly, appeasing Labor Party”. He even tried to peg Curtin as an appeaser… of Mussolini!… years before he became PM.
The Libs hijacked Gallipoli and eschewed anything more than a mention of Kokoda… why?
Because Kokoda was a Labor show and went right in the face of “Empire” politics of the time and the Americocentric politics of today (and let’s not forget Labor forged the American Alliance, Menzies merely cut the ribbon). The North African campaign was seen as our duty to participate in, and the withdrawl of the troops from there to the Pacific was characterized as Curtin’s lack of ticker in standing up to worldwide Fascism.
All Curtin wanted to do was to save Australia from possible Japanese invasion, a mere bagatelle (in Downer’s mind) to our duties as a Dominion.
All kinds of revisionist claptrap has been dredged up to corroborate this Tory fantasy.
One I remember well is the modern theseis – based on papers discovered in Japan after the war – that the Japanese would never have invaded Australia, and never wanted to, hence our involvement in the Pacific was not much more than a political stunt by Labor, etc. etc.
Firstly, we didn’t know what the Japanese were up to in 1942, and we certainly didn’t know what lay in the Imperial archives in Tokyo, waiting to be discovered after 1945. A decision had to be made, and made it was.
Secondly, it’s a pretty good bet that documents or no documents, if we’d left New Guinea undefended those Japanese veterans streaming down from Buna and Gona towards Moresby wouldn’t have said “No” to the chance of occupying a major port on the southern side of the island unopposed.
The spectacle of this kind of myth-making by the conservatives, Howard’s manic dashes from Sydney to Frementle just so he could wave goodbye to the troops a second time, and Downer’s looseness with the truth and common sense of history all lead to one conclusion: that if anyone tried to kidnap Anzac Day, it was the Tories, not Labor.
312 – Can you remember when One Nation came out with the policy of printing more money to pay for spending? Your suggestion is heading down that path (although nowhere near as bad). The future fund lending a couple of billion to each of banks is unlikely to have any large scale effect on the interest rate. The loan books of the big four are all in the hundreds of billions, so a cheaper billion or three is only going to cut a base point of the rate they charge customers (that is 0.01%), if at all.
317 Andrew
Carney makes the valid point that the Liberals have to grow up.
Carney claims poll figures are normal for post election period but in fact the figures are way higher than normal. To my knowledge getting results consistently averaging in the low 60’s is unheard of.
He also says the polls are not any different to 12 months ago when under Howard so why panic and blame Nelson when his approval rating is at a credible 38%? Even though his PPM is in single digits.
Some people apparently had not been able to “bear” to ditch Howard at the ballot box and so the margin then narrowed. But last year Howard had the advantage of incumbency and used it to the full in the last week of the election frightening some of the more nervous people with the “horrible” prospect of a change in Gov. to Labor. Now Rudd has incumbency and near an election, all things being equal and the Labor Party still performing well, the margin should not narrow as much. In addition Rudd is consolidating many of the additional votes, whereas last election some votes proved soft. Even though the figures are roughly the same as 12 months ago the Liberal Party is in a signicantly worse position now.
Just because we have always had a 2 party system it does not mean this will continue. Until the Libs get rid of their extreme right wing they will always be in trouble. I will not shed any tears if “RIP” Libs in their present form. I think that Democracy being what it is another party would form and become the Opposition to represent those people who the Gov policies do not reprent sufficiently and it could even be to the Left and not the Right, especially as people become more aware of global warming. There is nothing “sacred” about either party and power does in reality reside with the voters. Politicians should never forget this power balance.
323 I was not advocating printing money!
I know it would be but a small amount by comparison to the loan book but we are only talking about the amounts currently being rolled-over and here maybe a smaller amount might play a big pump-priming sort of role.
322 BB
Good post.
It is not much commented on that the attacks that finally started the Germans pulling back were made by Australian soldiers–under Australian (not British) leadership. The same with Viller–Bretonneux, Australian soldiers under Australian leadership. That is why that deserves more recognition.
Sometimes I think too much is made of the superiority of Australian officers. Certainally at the time of WW1, and up until the 1950’s as I recall, we considered ourselves British. At the time of WW1 all senior officers were trained in Britain.
No doubt that we have had some magnificant military leaders, but we have had our share of duds too. For example, I have done a little research on POW’s and the Burma Railway. The death rate amongst OR’s was much higher than officers because most officers used their rank to avoid the heavy work. The problem stemmed from the class system that influenced how people who were to become officers were chosen.
GA @ 327,
General Sir John Monash, Australia’s foremost military leader of WW1, wasn’t trained in Britain.
And I don’t think there is much evidence that the class system influenced how Australian officers were chosen (though no doubt class was crucial in the choice of British officers).
Thomarse # 326
I agree with what you said about the importance of the actions of Australian troops at Viller-Bretonneux in April 1918. Sir John Monash was a great Australian and is widely considered one of the more astute military commanders to emerge from the slaughter of WW1. Not sure BB’s post at #322 had anything to say about that.
The young John Monash reputedly once earned a shilling for holding Ned Kelly’s horse while Ned was busy plying his ‘trade’ which would not have endeared him to the upper classes had they known.
319 david charles – “I don’t want to get into a slanging match with anyone about whether or not persons in past governments were ‘decent’ or not and certainly not in the context of a discussion about Anzac Day celebrations.”
David your view is as valid as anyone else’s view here and that doesn’t make you any less “decent”.
I will make one last comment on this and leave it at that. When you first replied to Vera’s posting surely that was entering into an argument on her comments and “in the context of a discussion about Anzac Day celebrations.” You exercised your right of free speech and good on you just as Vera did.
322
Bushfire Bill
Not only did Curtin have to think about a possible invasion of Australia if the Kokoda campaign was lost, he was also very concerned about Australia being isolated and cut-off from Europe/UK/US if Japs were able to consolidate their Pacific gains. That is what led him to put Australian forces under the command of McArthur.
That last fear was maybe unrealistic given the yank’s fury at Pearl Harbor but that may have been harder to gauge from Canberra in the age before the internet, 24 hour TV etc etc.
See there’s been another outpouring of love between the Libs and Nats
http://www.abc.net.au/news/video/2008/04/22/2224299.htm
LOL!
Thomarse?
The Kokoda campaign “lost”?
What Downer was advocating was that Curtin should not have brought the troops home at all (as did Menzies, Page and the rest of the UAP bludgers on Churchull’s Imperial War Cabinet).
If that had been the case then Kokoda wouldn’t have been lost. It wouldn’t have been fourht at all.
We would have been faced with a solid Japanese occupation of New Guinea, access to Australian waters and northern ports, a strangulation of Pacific shipping routes based on those ports and quite likely a much longer war… at least from the perspective of what we knew at the time.
Curtin’s repatriation of the North African troops was quite possibly of world strategic importance.
320
Vera
Thats a ditto for me as well, though there was nothing like a good game of Two-Up out the back of the Huskison R.S.L when based at JB.
I think that is where Bleak ran into Brenden during his introduction to Two-Up.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
334 BB
Exactly! The Sunday Soldiers had performed brilliantly even tho underequipped, not even a Vickers heavy machine gun in reply to the Japs mountain gun, but they were at their last gasp, had stopped the Japs but that was it. The regulars took it from there.
That getting the convoy back to Australia. . .Churchill and Rooseveld, Menzies, Page, Bruce and that crud all against it, but Curtin stuck to his guns and by crikey just as bloody well!
Australia owes so much to John Curtin! As to Lord Lunchalot’s revisionism, well. . .
329
david charles
One thing that makes the speeches by Rudd, Fitzgibbon & Alan Griffin decent
they just talked about the battles being commemorated
not try to relate these to Iraq/Afganistan
Also, very simple language. As someone else remarked, no BS.
Decent.
That attempt by Downer to re-write history to debase Labor’s, and particularly Curtin’s role in standing up to Churchill, and bringing the M.E. troops back to defend Australia, made my blood boil. I, too, thought Rudd’s response was something you could be pleased that this particular nerd knew enough about it to be able to take it up to the man responsible for either not knowing about or not sufficiently forensically taking apart the $300 mill bribe to Saddam Hussein. You can’t have it both ways on this.
I’m to be convinced that anyone other than Petro Georgio and perhaps Judy Moylan were ‘decent’ in the former gov’t, in any sense I’d understand it. Win at all costs, and the devil take the hindmost, is the LNP, which it continues to do.
313
Thomarse Says:
The right whingers though have noticed a fatal flaw in Rudd’s public speaking–he licks his lips. This becomes ‘lizard-like lip licking.’ on Pies’ and Dolt’s blogs.
Howard is a lip-licker.
People Skills just blamed Swan for ‘talking up inflation.’
I mean, geez, give me a break, inflation over 4%, higher for a lot of food items, but it is all Swan’s fault for ‘talking up inflation’?
Nothing about privatisation and govt spending gone mad since 2001?
You expect this crap from Pies, from a senior Lib you do expect something better!
Cut yourselves loose from Howard/Costello! Acknowledge the gross economic irresponsibility for the last 8 years! And move on!
Nope, stick to the past say the Libs!
Hmmm is the day of 2 party democracy past? Does require 2 functoning parties!
340 Thomarse – I saw that too. I couldn’t believe what I was hearing. He’s treating us all like imbeciles.
Maybe it is him is the imbecile?
10 interest rate rises on the trot but inflation what inflation???
Thomarse #337
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. But how does that relate to my Post 329 which agreed with one of your earlier posts about Viller-Bretonneux?
340 and following
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/26/2228177.htm?section=justin
This is coming from a guy who can’t balance the budget on his measly $120K income and expenditure.
It’s probably a bit much for him to understand basic economics.
I like the way he’s calling for something to be done; he seems full of suggestions.
Thomarse – there’s no ‘maybe’ as far as I’m concerned. Another name goes in the ‘too simple to be trusted with the country’ basket.
It is better to keep one’s mouth shut and be thought a fool than to open it and resolve all doubt. ~Abraham Lincoln
HSO @ 338,
I’m yet to be convinced that either mainstream party is morally superior to the other (or more “decent”, for that matter).
Although it seems to be an article of faith for some people around here that Labor is morally superior to the conservatives, I assume these are people who have not heard of the current NSW government.
Lord Lunchalot is to ‘lead’ a group walking the path of the Sandakan Death March later this year. Maybe he’ll learn something along the way, though I doubt it.
It’s hard to credit that this dolt is the son of a Changi survivor
People Skills, would have to be one of the one of the most useless pieces of so called alternative gov’t I’ve ever seen, and the ABC just as useless a piece of analytical source of news. Antonio, if you’re out there, this is just another crock of rubbish.
“People Skills just blamed Swan for ‘talking up inflation.’”
Well that may just reveal their economic credentials – if you talk about it will happen. Nothing to do with prices and demand and supply.
Dyno, I would be the first to agree that NSW Labor is totally moribund, politically and ethically. I was speaking about the Federal sphere.
HSO, fair enough.
Even in the Federal sphere, though, give Labor 11.5 years in power and I’m sure they’ll tot up plenty of scandals.
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