The latest Newspoll shows an increase in Labor’s federal two-party lead to 61-39 from 59-41 a fortnight ago. Kevin Rudd’s lead over Brendan Nelson as preferred prime minister has narrowed marginally from 73-9 to 71-10. No word yet on the Liberal leadership preference questions which Newspoll was apparently asking respondents over the weekend (see the update on the previous Morgan post).
UPDATE: Graphic now available. The favoured Liberal leader is Malcolm Turnbull (25 per cent) ahead of Peter Costello (23 per cent), Brendan Nelson (15 per cent), Julie Bishop (13 per cent) and Tony Abbott (6 per cent). Support for the three proposed leadership teams (Nelson/Bishop, Turnbull/Robb, Costello/Turnbull) divided about evenly, while Turnbull leads Wayne Swan as “preferred Treasurer” 35 per cent to 29 per cent. In spite of everything, Brendan Nelson’s satisfaction rating is a presentable 38 per cent.
484 Comments
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Economics by fiat. If Abbott can do that make him PM.
Let there be….” “
343
david charles
I guess that BB showed that there has been a lot of selective choosing of battles to commemorate. Also, as I stated earlier, very simple, BS-free speeches at Anzac Cove and in France, no rah rah using them to recruit support for some present day war
350
Dyno
So you are saying Howard was in power for way too long?
Agree with that one!
Thomarse,
You’re entitled to your opinion about Howard. The Australian electorate opined on him as leader 6 times (first in 1987), and I guess his 4-2 win/loss record speaks for itself. Far from perfect, but not bad.
I just find it remarkable that so many on this blog tend to assume that anyone who disagrees with their politics is less “decent” (their word) than they are.
Downer will be remember for ‘things that batter’, fish-net stockings, not reading the emails on his desk about AWB bribery, being a bumbling fool type and, being possessed by envy and jealousy over Rudd.
As a foreign minister he did nothing because there was nothing to do – his policy was to wait for instructions from Bush and Cheney.
Oh yeh and in the political history books Downer will be remembered as one of the cowards that helped destroy the Liberal party by lacking the guts and responsibility to tell Howard to go.
Oh how Alexander must seethe with hatred for Rudd – to be shown up and so outclassed by his Diplomatic competitor and, then his Foreign Affairs competitor and also at being Opposition leader. Downer failed at all those positions – Rudd aced them with ease.
It is too pathetic, really, to arrive home night after night. And find myself sweeping leaves, over and over, they never stop, despite my endeavours and then I thought I must chuck all these papers into the recycle bin, and gee, it is already full and includes electioneering material and as much as I wish to keep Kev and Nicole, I was ruthless then I went outside on to the footpath and clipped the growling grass and swept it away from the drains, the grass I must say seems to be enjoying the dribble of rain we have managed to accomplish and somehow amongst all this I managed to tidy my kitchen not that I have tidied the rest of the house and I have completed the BAS stuff even though the spreadsheet formulae somehow went crazy and made life hell, little wonder I can hardly spare the time to blog, and my footy tips are not going at all well, though I did get the Crows. And another or so, but not the disgraceful Essendon. Anyway, all is not lost, I am lunching at the Bridgewater Mill, and I do hope that Alexander Downer will not be there, unlikely given that he cannot charge it to the taxpayer, and Le will be ever so pleased, and while I was clipping the damn grass in the middle of the night with my torch in hand I noticed as I swept, that fissures have developed in the footpath and road of my crazily watering neighbour. So, if you never hear from me again, you will know I have been swallowed into the earth. But at least I will have a last and decent supper.
HOWARD’S LEGACY
I received the yesterday as a “personal message” (PM) from another member of an applied optical engineering forum I contribute to.
At first I was going to bin it, but later on I mellowed and decided to reply.
I gently pointed out to the guy that Howard lost both the election and his seat in November 2007.
I told him that Howard probably didn’t use the words attributed to him. To have done so would have been political suicide. I suggested that perhaps he (and some members of his government) may have privately held these opinions, but they would never have uttered them out loud.
But, upon reflection, I wondered to myself whether it mattered that Howard hadn’t actually uttered these words.
Over here enough of us certainly understood what he was on about, and I’d like to think we got the message and voted against him and his government accordingly.
One thing is clear: overseas there is a gaggle of right wingers who hold Howard up as some kind of pro-Christian, pro-English language, pro-Western, anti-Muslim superhero. They are circulating emails extolling his virtues, to the point of making up quotations he uttered.
But as I wrote above: are they so inaccurate?
Is this how he was seen by the rest of the world? Is this how Australians were seen by the rest of the world?
Probably not… but it certainly gave me pause for concern.
Goodbye John. Thanks for nothing.
Oh yes, and Pies is back on Heiner… again.
This time it “implicates” the new GG: startling new allegations, criminal conspiracy etc. etc.
Why does he bother?
Abbott on Meet the Press on ten, repeating the myth that Costello is the greatest treasurer ever and that the Howard-Costello combination as the best ever. The Libs believe that continually repeating a myth, it will become a reality. After every interview Abbott has, he goes to confession to confess his lies to the Australian people.
359
Even on the rapidly sliding ‘Insiders’ (inside their own little world) Abbot was only worth about 5 seconds of giggling.
His low profile has lead to a double dose of irrelevancy.
358 BB
Because otherise he will have to start THINKING about what to write?
Howard’s legacy. Sounds legit, tho Howard would never ever be that honest in speaking, because it captures the reactionary spirit. These frightened people resist change because change implies growth.
354 Dyno. Bullbutter! We just talked about the Anzac Day speeches.
Hmmm Rofe audit? Bullbutter!
I doubt there is any ‘constitutional crisis.’ God’s sake!
And Pies just repeats all the discredited crap, that Heiner investigated abuse claims etc. False! BS! BB!
354 Dyno – now come on Dyno that argument is too simplistic and you know it. People aren’t calling Howard indecent purely on their opposition to his ideas, it’s against the content of the idea and/or its delivery and motive they find distasteful. I get the feeling you’ll defend him to the death on everything he did. My, how sensitive we are, too sensitive. May be there is some truth in what some people believe eh?
“Is this how he was seen by the rest of the world? Is this how Australians were seen by the rest of the world?”
I was living in Europe from 2004 to 2007, and yes, Australians were increasingly being viewed as a bunch of racist rednecks.
That impression might take a while to disappear, but at least we are free of Howard, and ready to chart a different course.
Most Australians believe in God.
I stopped reading that drivel right there. Neither God nor any religion is a noticeable part of most in my immediate community.
It is true that in ABS surveys that the vast majority of Australians identify themselves with a religion (mostly Christian), but that is nowhere near the same as saying they are genuine believers. Just check church attendance figures, the numbers attending church services (at least once a week) in Australia has been falling seriously and persistently for decades, and is now just a small minority (around 10%, if memory serves).
We are probably the most non-religious society on earth. Which is fine by me.
And speaking of the God Squad:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/pay-cut-moan-only-a-joke-abbott/2008/04/27/1209234624813.html
Check the photo of him they used.
Bushfire Bill @ 357 – There are versions of that claiming to have been said by a right wing politician from most western/predominantly Christian countries. This seems to identify the initial source: http://www.breakthechain.org/exclusives/beamerican.html
JM @ 366,
Just a joke. Just like his advice to the gone but unlamented Jackie Kelly in Lindsay to treat the Muslim pamphlet as a “Chaser” like prank.
The only way you know that Abbott is lying is that his mouth is open, his tongue is flapping and there is noise coming out.
Just Me. I read both your earlier postings & like other bloggers when it come to to the subject matter of religion or God a sharp critical objectionist POV arises with some self righteous bile as well to sooth their “God complex” views.
Myself I do believe but I dont go out to do “dump jobs” on others that may have an opposing view. Usually I have found those who are critical but not always are those who have never done a serious study on the matter of God or religion but are the first to throw stones at anyone who is. Are you one of them.
I am not passing any aspersions upon you as also their are those who are religious who are also ignorant on a lot of topics too. Its a subject that is not easily breached at a political blog as any debate can be argued & counter argued for days. I’m just saying to put the “mongrel away” !
Just me at 339
“Howard is a lip-licker.”
Nah!
Howard is an arse-licker.
Usually I have found those who are critical but not always are those who have never done a serious study on the matter of God or religion but are the first to throw stones at anyone who is. Are you one of them.
No. I was raised a Catholic, church every Sunday and before Xmas presents on Xmas day, First Communion, grace before every meal, the whole schtick, and several decades later I can still recite the Lord’s Prayer from memory.
But I never believed a word of it, and left the church and religion behind a long time ago, as soon as I was able, a choice I have never regretted. (Though I remain grateful to the various religions for the wonderful music they have given us over the centuries, and I also acknowledge the Bible’s often sublimely poetic language.)
Yes, I believe that the religious view (especially the metaphysical and teleological aspects) is a false view of the world (albeit one genuinely held by many), and that it does not ultimately advance the human species, and indeed that it is starting to seriously hold us back.
I also think it is not necessary to be religious to be an ethical person and live a decent life.
So be it.
Oops, only the first paragraph of #371 should be in italics.
Hmmmm I have sent an email to PM Rudd about this attack on our next GG. Rudd can get the AG to take action without him having to take any part.
Someone like Rudd, who voluntarily enters public life, may be a legitemate target for public villification. Someone like Ms Bryce who takes up a ceremonial post, or a politicians wife, is not.
Oh god no, not relgion & politics – I fear all the micks and closet micks (ex and current) a going to have a say, even if they don’t really, really wan’t to ….
This just shows that Abbott and the rest of the LNP Opposition just don’t get it whatsoever.
And this business of trying to deflect blame onto McLachlan when it was their own collective cowadice that they didn’t ditch Howard and try to bring their policies more in line with what the mainstream electorate were seeking is just arrant nonsense.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23605512-2,00.html
There’s no problem unless someone else reveals it, and even then they’re not sure…
And then ‘people skills’ comes out with this:
“There’s nothing wrong with our values, there’s nothing wrong with our instincts, but we’ve got to apply them anew to contemporary problems,” he said.
That’s almost Nelson-esque
Not when it involved trying to stay entrenched in the one position that had been his lifelong dream.
And there was no way Hyacinth was going to move from the luxury of Kiribilly and the social standing they had become accustomed to, what with being able to entertain lavishly at taxpayer’s expense ($36,000 wine cellar, servants etc) and what about the view.
All this in between staying in luxury accommodation on the numerous overseas trips. Poor old “Tip” & spouse didn’t quite meet up with the high standards necessary to receive an invite. No wonder he opted out of picking up the pieces. I hope to hear much more on this in the upcoming book. Just hope it’s not going to be a novel. Fiction?
onimod, did you notice on “Insiders” that they picked up on Nelson’s constant backflips and changing of position.
Looks as though he has set a trend now. The rest of them are starting to do it now too.
Lol, this is fun. Watching this mob flip, flop and spin themselves inside out is better than any Comedy Company production.
I hope some astute writer is taking copious notes. The period from 24th November, 2007 through to the next election should provide enough material for a fascinating read. A must for any coffee table.
I assume all you young laborites won’t be able to drink anymore now that our glroious leader has doubled the tax on alcohol. I’m sure he has your best interests at heart – more time for dedication to the cause. Praise the Krudd.
378
I’ve commented on the for of their behaviour before, but it really does look like a race to the bottom. There’s this weird belief that the only way you can unseat a sitting labour government is to be responsible for uncovering or ‘creating’ some sort of scandal. The politicians seem to want to be journalists, and the journalists want to be politicians.
Neither seem to be good enough at their jobs to be able to show the other the way.
Since when in Australia did the the person yelling the loudest get the attention? That seems to me, to be an importation of American culture that I just don’t think is having the same effect here. It just seems so easy in Australian culture for the smartarse at the back of the bar to cut the overly emotional pontificating w@^ker down to size with a clean and incisive comment.
And this isn’t just going on Federally. Apparently there’s a scandal every day of the week in Canberra at the moment (it’s an election year). At he moment it’s the contract for flying balloons….seriously.
I really don’t give a hoot how emotional a politician is – it’s the facts, and the fact that the Liberal oppositions are branding themselves as factless whiners is more than a little disturbing. They’re either getting woeful advice or they’re just plain stupid and disconnected from Australia.
There is a time for negativity in politics, but it’s a shock tactic; generally best saved for late in a campaign. The day in day out ‘look at me, look at meeee’ manufacturing of scandals and disasters (that seemingly don’t affect day-to-day life in Australia) is a simple as the story of chicken little.
People aren’t listening because there’s nothing worth listening to any more.
Bargearse @ 379 -
The tax hasn’t been doubled on alcohol generally, only premixed drinks which brings the excise back to that charged for other spirit products.
Why Costello reduced the excise on just premix back in 2000 is a mystery. Maybe they’re his fav tipple.
Anyway, all good “laborites” – of whatever age – should be drinking the working man’s booze, beer!
onimod, The electorate had made their decision long before Nov 24th. They decided that they had had enough of Howardism, Rudd & his team looked the goods and they felt comfortable in giving Labor the opportunity to run the place for a while.
Once that decision was made, they are content to just get on with life and let the new Government get on with whatever is necessary in running the country. They have had enough of politicking, what with Howard’s 365 days a year campaigning for 11.5 years and will take a bit of a look during the next election campaign, but will probably be quite content to let Rudd carry on with his agenda.
It really won’t matter what the Libs and their MSM supporters try to spin over this electoral cycle, the punters have tuned out. The only way that that could be turned around is with a colossal stuff-up bu Rudd, and that is very unlikely. He is too smart an operator to let this opportunity slip due to a major stuff-up. He’ll revert to “cruise control” rather than let that happen.
For the moment, and into the foreseeable future, the Libs are a non-entity and a non-event.
381 MF
Preferably BEER he brewed himself
If anyone drinks bacardi fizz with strawberry tang they deserve to be taxed triple.
Completely off topic but has anyone else noticed Woolies owned bottle shops have taken on the petrol pricing model for beer?
30 VB cans at my local $40 Fri-Sat-Sun, $48 other days of the week. Please explain?
Thx for spoiling my evening, ruawake. VB! {Shudder}
A bit of trivia: You can buy the Aussie made pre mixed drinks at supermarkets here in China (sans the tax). If anyone is hanging out for bacardi fizz with strawberry tang The Peoples Republic is the place for you. I can’t wait to get back home and have some Aussie beer
P.S I love VB
Howard, with his Cold War-type suspicions of ‘the other’, and his 18th century workplace fantasies, was truly a man of the past.
It took a long time, but eventually Australia put him into its past, and no place did suit him better.
It appears to me that the Murdoch press is in the midst of a campaign to undermine the credibility of the RBA and its Governor. Trying to personally attack him, the mechanism the RBA uses, its decision making, if it knows what it is doing and so forth.
Extraordinary really considering it was until a short time ago sacrosanct. Maybe Murdoch’s zombie ‘journalists’ are still upset rates were increased during the election or more likely, upset the Turnbull is making a total ass of himself trying to attack the RBA and Treasury. So the OO and its siblings are taking over the Treasurer’s role as well as Nelson’s role.
The whole purpose is of course to have the public believe the RBA is getting it wrong, that interest rates rises were not necessary and that the Howard govt was right all along and was ‘framed’ by the RBA…etc.
Into the mix you have to ask if Bernie Fraser has got his head screwed on right. It must have been obvious to him that the press was trying to attack the RBA and its governor and undermine it .. yet he comes out and gains says the RBA. Wonder if he can remember when he was Governor and how he would have liked his predecessor making ‘unhelpful’ comments.
And of course Abbott’s line that Swan was talking up inflation and thus put pressure on the RBA to lift rates just shows you how low and stupid he is. But of course it is all in tune with what the Murdoch press is trying to do…and also implies personal weakness on the part of the Governor.
However, during the election campaign, Howard’s pressure on the RBA over rates didn’t stop them raising them…so that makes Abbott’s contention that the RBA reacts to government pressure look ridiculous.
388 Kina
must
blame
someone
…
anyone
Frankly – it’d do my head in having to follow that process
Kina
I don’t think the reserve bank should be beyond criticism, many are looking at Greenspan who was previously hailed a genius and a steady hand as not exercising enough control, sort of a hands off approach.
The whole credit borrowing market was allowed to run free, there should have been some control.
Pointing the finger at the RBA is easy but misplaced. The current inflationary cycle is much like the the 1970’s, and has similar causes. In the 1960’s, the USA became embroiled in a hugely expensive war and failed to raise taxes to finance it. Excessive military and domestic spending by the USA combined with loose monetary policy produced an enormous build up in spending and US-denominated debt and led in quick time to soaring commodity prices and ultimately to USD-depreciation and the collapse of the Bretton Woods currency system. The collapse in the dollar had its corollary: soaring commodity prices.
A similar train of events is occurring now: grossly irresponsible US spending, loose monetary policy (and even looser regulation of lending) and negligent fiscal policies have fed unsustainable investment and consumption booms all around the world and to a very steep decline in the USD.
The result is worldwide inflation in the prices of staple products. The credit market crunch in the US and Europe has slowed these economies, but not yet by enough to sap demand to the point where prices decline. Imagine what inflation would be like if the credit crisis had not knocked the guts out of consumer demand in the US.
The real culprit here is the grossly incompetent, war-making, tax-cutting, lie-telling Bush Administration.
The collapse of the USD is bad for Americans: their staple products cost them more, eating away at real living standards. But it’s tough on everyone else too. Anyone who needs to get USD in order to buy those same staples – especially food and energy – is in trouble. If you’re heavily into the traded goods economy (and luckily, Australia is) you will get the benefits of nominal price appreciations and favourable currency moves. But if you are not a beneficiary of demand for these goods, you are going to suffer ruinously high prices and, as we’ve seen in some countries, shortages of staple products.
By allowing a weak dollar policy, the Bush Adminsitration has exported part of the costs of its appaling mismanagement to the world’s poor.
Australian families will not be exempt from these pressures, even if their worst effects will be mitigated to some degree.
For commentary on supply/ demand…
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/latest.pdf
Blindoptimist,thank you for your insightful explaination of the role the criminal Bush regime is playing in yet another unfolding tragedy. Will our interest rate adjustments and other spending measures have much impact on these external drivers of inflation?
Whoever has the control over the U.S. currency printing presses is behaving like a drunk in a brewery.
Ahh – Allbull has realised there is a problem [and no mention of it being Swan's fault - interesting]:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,23607434-5001021,00.html
“These are very tough times for borrowers because we are going into globally very tough times,” Mr Turnbull told The Daily Telegraph.
He said home prices had declined 11 per cent over the past year and there were predictions they would fall by 35 per cent in the US before the economic hard times eased.
“The implications for Australia are very considerable. There is a lot of pain in Australia that is going to come out of the US.”
and then this:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/28/2228767.htm
Mr Turnbull says the significant cooling in the US economy will flow through to Australia.
“I think the Treasurer’s got to be very careful not to be too Scrooge-like with the Federal Budget,” he said.
“I’m saying there is a lot of grief coming in from outside Australia and this is a time for us here in economic management to be cautious.
“We shouldn’t be rushing into measures, be they monetary or fiscal, that could, in effect, overdo the downward pressure on economic activity that’s coming from the rest of the world.”
The comments over at the ABC seem to be reasonably insightful and both sides of the argument seem to get a run. People do seem to be keen to be on the record predicting one thing or the other though.
Liam, I really think the global economy is in serious trouble. The contractionary shockwaves from the credit crunch are very dangerous. So far the reserve banks have been able to keep the commercial banking system liquid and have averted outright seizure in lending. But if asset values keep on shrinking and lending continues to ebb, then the real economy will become ever more sluggish. The process of de-leveraging will become more prolonged and more pervasive and lead to further contractionary pressures on the real economy.
At the same time, the USD is looking ever more tattered and debased, so the increasing USD-denominated prices of consumer staples will eat away at real incomes in the US. This will intensify the contractionary pressure in the US economy, leading to further de-leveraging, renewed flight from risk, further turbulence in the debt markets and further rounds of currency devaluation.
The integrated nature of the global credit and currency markets means these pressures are very quickly transmitted from one economy to another. The situation in Australia is nowhere near as severe as the US, but we can already see conflicting forces: inflation pushing prices up and gouging real incomes; credit contraction eroding asset values; higher interest rates weighing on credit demand, investment and consumption.
My personal opinion is the collapse in the housing market in the US, the UK and elsewhere has the potential to provoke a very prolonged period of contraction. It will be characterized by de-leveraging, first in the financial sector, then in the household sector and finally in the government sector. Central banks will be playing a balancing game for years: keeping the sytem liquid, averting collapses, but aiming to achieve positive real interest rates. Their basic fixations will be achieving system maintenance and price stability. Output and employment will come second. There is no overnight fix for this. It will take several years to accomplish, all going well.
Chaser APEC Charges Dropped.
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23609110-5005361,00.html
Frank @ 398, hooray for some sanity and common sense in the hallowed halls of the legal profession. While I sometimes think the Chaser boys do go too far in their occasional juvenile pranks, they do perform the essential service of reminding us when indeed ‘the emperor has no clothes’. More power to them I say, I hope they are returning to the ABC, we will need them!
Has anyone seen Pies’ blog on Heiner?
Abso-bloody-lootley un-be-effing-lieveable. The bile and venom that comes out of that man and his acolytes.
Malignant windbag, indeed…
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