This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.
11.30am AEST. CNN reports Clinton leads 53-47 with 20 per cent of precincts counted. Their exit poll, if I’m reading it correctly, points to a result of about 52-48. They called it a “win” for Clinton about half an hour ago, for what that’s worth.
12.30pm. Clinton has just given a speech to claim victory of one kind or another: she now leads 54-46 with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.
12.50pm. As Obama gives his speech, the CNN’s count clicks over to 55-45 with 78 per cent of precincts reporting. They are giving Clinton 52 delegates to Obama’s 36 on television, but their web page is holding back on 37-31.
2.20pm. With 98 per cent of precincts reporting, Clinton’s has a lead of 54.8-45.2, which is at the higher end of market expectations.
1,387 Comments
I wonder what time Wolf will call it.
It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.
Morning Bludgers, be sure y’all have a nice primary now, ya hear!
Tues April 22:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AhIlNntzDRry0yK6iTmTyZAXvTYC
Tues April 22:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=ApOAmu02.nA0KnBWvqRZcIpX_b4F
Tues April 22: Man demonstrating his superiority over animals
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AgNGcdN0XsE9mhZJDt2ynD1J_b4F
————————–
Ah, Ryano, but how many Obibots will be activated in the Obi-zones? In primaries, vox populi is important, but as far as the Dem nomination goes, it’s the delegate tally that counts. After N.C. and IN, the gap will still be 140+ for Obi with a much smaller pool left from which Brutusina may draw.
If the margin is less than 5 or 6 points, SDs will drawn to the surface like dung beetles on the Serengeti when the Big Game begin to move.
What time are we expecting to see results (on other less sleep deprived sites) ?
Heard on MSNBC that early exit polling in “rural areas” breaking for Clinton 70 – 30…. I wonder if these are Chaos voters who switched parties only to disrupt the process.
Hillary doing well in Pittsburgh and surrounding areas — Murtha country — as per MSNBC
Timbo, in just under 3 hours from now.
First exit polls on FauxNews:
Clinton ahead but less than expected with gun owners
Obama ahead but less than expected with college educated
Who has been “unfair” in their advertising?
Clinton 67%
Obama 42%
i think that was accurate. may differ a few points. can’t quite remember.
both analysts said that is worrying for Clinton especially as women(hill’s base) react more to unfairness.
take it with a grain of salt until numbers come in i guess.
Morning all
what is the best site for tracking the results etc?
sounds like it’s already different to the pre-polls.
-
Drudge is reporting early exit polling results
C 52 O 48
Union Households
58-42 Clinton
Under $50,00 P.A.
55-45 Clinton
Church Goers
57-43 Clinton
Urban Voters
61-39 Obama
Who relates to Pennsylvanians
65-64 Obama
Exit polls showing no surge in late deciders. About 20% as opposed to the about 30 in Ohio. If that number remains true Clinton wo’n break a 10% margin and is looking much closer to 5. That goon Drudge has exit polls showing Hillary by 4, but he was touting internal Clinton polling showing her to win by +10 the other day.
Here’s the analysis from the Votemaster site which is unbiased and comprehensive as opposed to the “cherry picking” tendencies of many on this site.
Seems to indicate a Clinton victory of around 10%. About where we were six weeks ago.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Apr22.html
G’day, Jen, CNN online streamed smooth and fast results in TX.
Anyway, here’s a neat report of the latest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/us/politics/22cnd-campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Harry, that urban turn out for The Kid is crucial. So far so good.
agree EC
The NYT has a sweet little interactive calculator on it’s home page. You move the slider to a percentage value averaged across the remaining 10 primaries. It then tells you how many of the uncommitted superdelgates she needs to exceed Obama’s total delegate numbers.
At her average so far – 47% of the vote, she will need 79% of remaining SDs
Assuming an even 50%, she needs 77% of uncom SDs
http://www.nytimes.com/
Morning all.
I notice RCP has extended Obama’s national poll lead to 10.4 this morning. That’s a leap of nearly 3% in as many days.
I saw`that too Ferny. But if Hillary wins by even 2 votes in Pa. today she will claim a resounding victory and drag this out regardless.
Our only hope is that the people of Pennsylvania are as fed up with her antics as some of us are and Obama voters turn out in unprecendented numbers.
Morning Jen,
A win to The Kid would be an upset alright. I guess it relies on how ‘upset’ the good folk of Penn are with the shenanigans of Hillary and whether they really prefer stage-managed gun-totin, beer swillin’, Iran obliteratin’ bullsh*t to honesty.
A 20 point lead to Hillary a few weeks back was always going to be a near impossible task to overcome. But Obama has already done the near impossible to get the lead down to single digits.
Still I’m sticking by my earlier call of Hillary by 7-8. Both sides will claim it as a victory but nothing will have really changed and the show will move on to Indiana, NC…and on and on and on.
“It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.”
That “Alabama in between” is also Redneck Republican country (I’ve also heard it called “Penn-tucky”). So it means absolutely nothing in terms of which candidate (Obama or Clinton) is best able to carry Pennsylvania come November. The Dems rely on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (especially the suburbs) to win Pennsylvania, not the wasteland in between.
Overall early exit poll
52-48 Clinton.
looking good for Obama. That is nowhere near enough
No movement in the betting markets as yet. They have been fooled by exit polls before. So the consensus at the moment is wait and see.
Where is your source Harry?
HuffPo, Ferny.
WorkToRule, which markets are you referring to, got a link, please.
46 minutes to go . . . after 6 weeks that STILL seems like an eternity
for what it’s worth (possibly not a whole lot), the “wisdom” of crowds: http://election2008.predictify.com/questiondata.aspx?auction_id=3257&HostName=election2008
turnout 80% white and 57% female
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/22/exit-polls-who-showed-up-at-the-polls-today/
While we’re waiting, The Imbecile displays his deep and ongoing empathy with fellow Americans.
Pennsylvania Exit Polls: 9 In 10 Americans Think US In A Recession, Bush Says “We’re Not”
Tues April 22: Old Milit-Shills never die.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AlcAiFAoSN.8GUt1tiBSXX1X_b4F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Little_Bighorn
That’s pretty much the PA Democrat demographic Andrew. Most of them on low incomes too. Clinton heartland
“Obama Osama Humm Are they brothers”
From a Church in Pennsylvania. As disgusting and low as it gets. And they wonder why church attendence keeps on falling.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23579901-5012572,00.html
Harry, even a narrow 4% win for Clinton will be painted by her a great victory. Only a loss has any chance of making her drop out. Please voters of Penn, put us out of our misery.
I think that church is in South Carolina, Andrew. Probably right under a Confed flag.
EC
I’ve been following sports.betfair.com
Its hilary to win the nomination has been around $5.5 over the last few days. No movement in that price as yet.
The favoured outcome is Clinton to win but by less that 7.5% – which doesn’t really add much at this stage.
Even if Clinton loses, she and her camp have said,, they will not drop out. We’re dealing with some real nuts here, with Bill, Hillary and unfortunately, the loyal Clintonites who continue to prop up her dead campaign bid for the nomination, they prefer to destroy the party than to face the facts that Clinton cannot win the nomination, so winning the presidency is beyond her reach!
Game over now that Michael Moore has endorsed Obama. Kiss of death perhaps?
Ready to pull your levers, Bludgers? (And I mean no disrespect! LOL)
If you’re quick:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/live-blogging-the-pa-primary/index.html?hp
…the picture on the top of the page is worth the price of admission.
Here’s one exit poll
I don’t believe it for a second but it made me smile
Obama 52%
The Monster 47%
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=
Polls closed. First end of voting exit polls showing Clinton +4. Could still be overwhelmingly from bigger and city areas though.
24
Ecky, this article titiled “Clueless in America” applies:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/opinion/22herbert.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…bookmark and read when you get a chance. And then think of what three trillion dollars could have done to fix it, and rebuilt New Orleans and….
With crude oil a dime short of US$120 last night, and the USD hitting $1.60 to the Euro, maybe those Amish have the right idea!
Clinton’s won – but by less than 10 (I’m basing that from the CNN Exit Polls)
Only 10% of voters are under 30 according to exit poll on CNN.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
Only 10% of voters are under 30 according to exit poll on CNN.
Does this imply that they didn’t vote or that the exit poll is underrepresentative?
Kiss of death for Obama if that’s correct FG.
I still stand by my 9% prediction in favour of Mrs Clinton.
First movement in the betting markets – Clinton odds moving out to $6.
Clinton is begining to remind me of Jason from the Friday 13th series.
“Probably more important than the exit polls: Andrea Mitchell (who should have gotten her own show instead of David Gregory) says that Clinton insiders expect a close result based on their field reports.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It’s looking like less than a 5 point win to me.
If Clinton wins by less than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.
If Clinton wins by more than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.
And conversely Alan,
If Clinton wins by less than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.
If Clinton wins by more than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.
In other words nothing will change…on to Denver then i guess!
42
Alan
We’ve heard the argument ‘why hasn’t Obama finished her off?’, but the other one is pretty powerful: ‘how come Clinton, with her dynasty connections, hasn’t won yet?’
Take ya pick, as they say.
By my calculations, the CNN exit poll is;
Clinton 51.5%
Obama 48%
Perhaps there is a God after all. Anything better than an 8% Obama loss would be a bonus for me. A 5% or less Obama loss will really put the pressure on Hillary to quit.
I’m impressed Diogs – I can never figure out how to get an overall figure out of those exit polls.
I hope you’re right.
diogenes, there is NO WAY Hillary will quit if she wins. She would have to lose, an even then she’d probably keep going
Is it just me, or is the overall tone of discussion far more pleasant today?
What dynastic connection? Dynasties are hereditary lineages. Clinton’s father was in small business and her mother was a homemaker.
48
Andrew
You maybe are forgetting that her campaign is not exactly rolling in cash, and without a hefty win in her natural, keystone state, then donors are going to back off at the speed of light in reverse.
The flesh is willing, but the checkbook is weak…and the latter rules.
Andrew
I agree. But the SDs will increasingly realise that she has no hope. They may even start to make a decision for once in their lives and “Endorse Obama to Stop the Drama”.
KR
I think that Clinton, with all her advantages, has fallen behind and has not been able claw back the lead is the more powerful argument.
Her odds are drifting up to $7 – it looks like a “not good enough” victory for Clinton.
50
Alan
One president and one senator in one family is not a political dynasty?
What should I call it?
A knitting club?
49 – Give it time FG. All the players haven’t taken their seats as yet.
49
Ferny Grover Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:27 am
Is it just me, or is the overall tone of discussion far more pleasant today?
We can fix that punk! Just lean over this way a bit! LOL
I also agree – Hillary will not quit until she is fully pushed out the door. Even when she knows she has no hope of getting the nomination, I think she will persist in order to make it that much harder for Obama.
Scouting around the blogs today, seems that a Hillary win of about 6 – 7 % is what most expect. We’ll see.
“Voter Action, a national voter rights group, has asked a Philadelphia judge to extend voting hours tonight until 10 p.m., and to use paper ballots at all voting places where broken machines have been reported. The city’s Board of Elections seems certain to object. The hearing is expected to begin momentarily.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/politics/Extended_Hours_Paper_Ballots.html
—————
You’re such a hard task-master, Kirri at 34, however acting on instructions received, it’s been favoutited!
#46, #47
The CNN exit poll seems to give every imaginable number except the most two important ones – the total votes per candidate.
How about it’s in the favs column. (sheesh)
Here’s something to change the tone. First results put Hillary 2:1 in front.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
First results 66/34 to Clinton
Those CNN exit polls also show huge oldies numbers – about 70% over 45, including 33% over 60. This is good news for Clinton.
Yep, CNN count is massive to Clinton at this stage.
But it may well have only counted votes from a church, gun club or KKK meeting…
In CNN’s exit poll, of those who don’t fall into the religious group ie ‘other’, Obama gets 62% of them.
Guess the others are too busy ‘clinging’ to Hillary! LOL
Smile, yep, that rural booth of 2000 voters is a landslide to Clinton!
CNN figures are geri loaded! No reason to get excited.
Nice one Dio: Go Obama, stop the drama:)
58
Enemy Combatant
I saw a Newshour segment on that subject the other day and although I knew it was getting bad, I had not realised just how bad. It’s real ‘fall of an empire’ stuff, and against the background of economic implosion, pretty bloody sobering stuff. Not with a bang, but a whimper.
Expect initial count to favour Clinton. Philly results won’t come through until 12 noon or later (our time), and Obama won philly & burbs by huge margins 69%-31% and 62%-37% (by exits).
59 Triton
You can work the total votes out based on the proportionate representation in any demographic and the percentage they voted for.
So in the M/F demographic which is 42/58
Hillary gets 42%x0.47 plus 58%x0.55=51.6%
Obama gets 42%x0.53 plus 58%x0.44=48.8%
You have to wonder if Clinton has a four year game plan. Do enough damage to Obama so that he does not become President and can be beaten (or does not stand) in 2012 primaries.
Either that or she just like burning money and inflicting damage on her party.
Faknews calls for Hillary!!!!
67
Pancho
haven’t they learned anything yet! LOL
Stay calm Bludgers, there are still queues standing waiting to vote FFS.
73
The Finnigans
Oh dear, the first cuckoo of spring.
Trust you Finns! LOL
Diogenes,
Saw your post re contacting Votemaster. Good get. Certainly added some psephological depth to the usual rah rah here.
Looks like some bigger booths (including, according to the map, in/around Philly) coming in. 60/40 Clinton at the moment.
Claude at 70: the vice of psephological reason.
And yes, Ferny, there is a more pleasant vibe about today (so far..)
KR,
As opposed to the Obama Ostriches with their heads in the sand.
Claude is right, it’s the PHilly burbs that’ll hold the key to the Keystone state.
All else is just silliness, and fun, really.
#71
Thanks, Diogenes. I understand that it can be worked out. I just wonder why we need to.
#60
Enemy Combatant, I’m looking here:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#PADEM
Don’t see a “favs” column.
While I would be very surprised to see Clinton not win, I find the early calls a little odd, given the exit poll numbers we have seen so far. What do FOX know that we don’t?
79
Greensborough Growler
And good day to you sir! Did you just remove your head from anywhere?
A day of reckoning for the Hillbillies, eh? I mean, her own keystone state, where’d you’d expect her to trounce all comers, and that she needs so desperately, being so far behind an all.
Running out of track, is she? Or, like Grommet in that classic scene, just managing to lay it in front as she trundles along?
Fox News and MSNBC call it for Hillary!
CNN still says it’s too close to call.
I’d guess she wins it by 54-46.
Pancho,
Fox may have other exit polls.
They may also look at the voting data that has come through (eg, Clinton leading in Philadelphia with 5% of precincts counted) and conclude that Clinton’s going to win it.
55/45 H/O now.
Pilly reporting 50/50
Is there any consensus about the margin Clinton needs to keep the cheques coming in and the SDs onside?
53/47 Overall
52/48 to Barck in Philly now.
As far as narrative goes, I reckon:
Under 5% Clinton win – pro-Obama. 5-10% – much the same as things are now. 10-15% pro-Clinton.
It’s 57/43 overall (on CNN)…
And now it’s 53/47….
Philly now going 54/46 to Obama.
3% vote counted and anybody is calling it?
Oh, Fox exit polls? yeah, right! LOL
KR,
So is MSNBC
Philly numbers. Clinton will probably continue to edge ahead, then be pulled back as big Philly numbers come in. 19% counted there now for Obama 54/46.
Reserve judgement until Pittsburg results come in.
Young voter % creeping up slowly. 12% now.
52/48 now
CNN now also calling it for Clinton
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
Clinton now the predicted winner.
cnn calls it for clinton.
SL, they do a ‘brave’ call on what must be an astonishingly small sample, eh?
CNN is calling it for Clinton. That’s brave.
Too many commentators in this booth.
They have called with it the first Pittsburgh numbers. Seems brave to me but when in Rome…
JJ, it was hardly in doubt that she’d ‘win’! But it’s not 20%, is it?
In fact it’s 4%, which if that holds, it’s lights out in Camp Clinton.
Different dynamic operating in PA cf. TX.
The TX urban vote came in early and Smile took great delight by updating every few mins as it was whittled down by the provincial tallies.
The Kid is gonna come home with a wet sail if the city votes are stalled, that he’s this close already augers well for the BotBrigade!
Philly now 55/45 Obama. Early Pitsburg figures going his way 57/43.
Disappointing numbers for Clinton.
#100
An Obama win is unlikely, but to call the result at 52-48 with 7% counted seems premature. The figures have been jumping around a lot to this point. Everyone’s desperate to call it first.
Smile took great delight by updating every few mins as it was whittled down by the provincial tallies.
===
Not delight, keen interest!!!
The punters are betting the final margin will be under 7.5%
CNN and NYT obviously get different feeds on the count.
Looks like Clinton won’t go over 10% at this point.
Dunno James, she sort of looks solid outside the cities. It seems like a lot of sound and fury here. I reckon she’s still heading for a 7-8 point win.
C’mon, Smile, we all know you’re rooting for Mrs Clinton.
C’mon, Smile, we all know you’re rooting for Mrs Clinton.
===
No sir. I’ve always said I’m rooting for the candidate who will beat the Republicans. While my early thoughts were that this was likely to be Clinton, Obama has shown tenacity and fight. But also an annoying inability to seal the deal. If/when he does so, I’m right on board.
54/46 to Clinton at 9%. Her lead is edging up again
Is there any site projecting final numbers based on the demographics of the booths so far?
I was waiting for the margin moaners to start.
A win is a win is a win.
Go Hillary! Onwards to the nomination, I say.
Most of Hill’s lead is from Luzerne county. Did they send Bill up there?
I love the way the NYTs puts it:
Hillary Rodham Clinton was projected to win the Democratic primary by several TV networks and The Associated Press, but the margin of victory was unclear.
…one could say that, eh?
From DKos
“Here’s How The Nets Were Able To Call This Quickly
They’re merging the exit poll data with quick tallies from specially selected model precincts across the state. Clinton in those precincts is outperforming her margin in the exit polls.”
Retracted, Smile, great to note we’re on the same side.
#121 – KR – you are such an ungracious loser.
117
Ferny Grover
On the small county numbers by the looks. I think the % return figure must be county, not total vote. It’s not clear on either CNN or NYT as far as I can see.
Anyone know which it is?
Pittsburg count seems stalled and has done so for AGES…
124
The Finnigans
No I’m not! I’ve said all along CLinton should take PA, FFS.
Yesterday I said around 10%, 2 pts either way was my guess.
Why must you continually make offensive remarks?
If you haven’t got anything constructive to say, then desist.
William, where’s your edict when it’s required? LOL
Finns,
I have this vision of a beached whale floundering around in the shallows with its head stuck in the sand.
KR @ 125,
When they sent % of vote counted, they mean % of precincts counted. That’s roughly equivalent to % of booths counted in Australia – meaning that it is not the same as % of number of votes counted.
“Although there is relatively heavy reporting in Philadelphia County — and Obama now leads 55:45 there — there is almost no reporting in Obama’s next-best area, the Philadelphia suburbs. So, I don’t necessarily know that the current results are unrepresentative of the state in either direction. My initial 7-8 projection is still looking quite good.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
126
Smile
Yeah, only 1,000 votes on CNN county map. What’s going on there?
Dear, oh dear. You outspent your opponent 3 to 1 in a critical state. You are still a loser. Comes November Obama MIGHT win but Hillary WILL win. That’s your choice. Not to mention Ohio, Florida and Michigan.
57/43 in Philly now.
Voting extended perhaps? Is that where there were machine problems?
129
Swing Lowe
Yes, thanks, I thought so.
So that makes the projections pretty early, to say the least, as the small county ones have come in, as you’d expect, and the bigger regions will be many hours away.
Finns, Penn. has been trending blue for a couple of terms. The economy is going bust. Wanna bet another jig that any Democratic candidate wind Penn. hands down in November?
#128 GG – this is a classic:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxxp5e_CReo
58/42 to O in Philly. 53/47 to C overall.
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
Tight
134
Pancho
People were still queued at 8pm in bigger centres, apparently. Maybe ‘technical’ difficulties too, they always get some of those. (The pencil seems too obvious, doesn’t it????)
For an idea of population distribution (based on the last US census) check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Pennsylvania_population_map.png
Ordinarily you’d expect small non-urban precincts to return the majority of early results, which have generally favoured Clinton in previous primaries. There has been on average, IIRC, previous contests have seen around a 4-8% clawback toward Obama as the larger city precincts come in later on.
Although saying that Pennsylvania is seriously weird. I reckon we won’t see much movement from 6-8% difference
Another Clinton comeback?
And I wonder if all of the hype around Obama is just that, with not much substance underneath? He had the chance today to end this thing and take her out, but he hasn’t done it!
139
codger
good, should have searched for that.
You bring light into our lives!
Under 3%! With 18% of districts in. Wow, that’s hot!
“Pittsburg count seems stalled and has done so for AGES…”
… maybe Hilary has picked up some tricks from Mugabe
Oops mangled grammar in last post. Should have read:
or an idea of population distribution (based on the last US census) check out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Pennsylvania_population_map.png
Ordinarily you’d expect small non-urban precincts to return the majority of early results, which have generally favoured Clinton in previous primaries. In previous contests there has been on average (from memory), around a 4-8% clawback toward Obama as the larger city precincts came in.
Although saying that Pennsylvania is seriously weird. I reckon we won’t see much movement from 6-8% difference
DKos:
“How desperate is the Clinton campaign for cash? Terry McAuliffe just plugged HillaryClinton.com.
Go there, and it forwards straight to a fundraising page. Of course for the campaign that thinks it’s “more electable”, being broke doesn’t look so hot”
so which are accurate, the cnn figures or the department of state site?
#139
Yes, Codger. Vote is much closer there and more total votes given than CNN.
Think this is still way too close to call, if Pittsburgh break any where near the way Philly is going it’s going to end up very close indeed
Philadelphia is up to 59% for Obama. Pittsburgh on 53%. Around Harrisburg he is on 72%. Definitely outweighs Clinton in the cities…
#142 – he had the chance in:
* NH
* Super Tuesday
* Texas Ohio
and Now.
It just reminds me of that State of Origin Rugby League game back in 1994 where NSW was beating the shit out of QLD but Mark Coyne scored a last minute try to win 20-18. Go Hillary, go.
Department of State count is now Clinton = 53.3 vs Obama = 46.7. Between 6 and 7 % difference.
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
What’s the matter with Pittsburgh?
(Hmm, good title for a book? LOL)
Now back to 51.9 vs. 48.1.
Please, please don’t compare Hillary to QLD in the state of origin… that’s just so wrong.
Ben Smith at Politico is a bit glum. A 6% win only gives Clinton about 10 delegates and completely finishes any possibility of her winning the popular vote. It’s not going to kill her off but I bet the Hillary Deathwatch drops even lower than its current 9.9%.
FYI Republican Pittsburg results also not coming in.
#152
Now 52.3/47.7 on DOS site.
Both sites jump around 2-3% almost every time I do a refresh.
“Although saying that Pennsylvania is seriously weird. I reckon we won’t see much movement from 6-8% difference”
Which is probably just enough to keep the Clinton campain afloat. I guess that means the circus will roll on to Indiana and North C.
4.6% margin on State count…this is exquisite!
Waitin’ for Pittsburgh, so I wrote down this song…
we’re rednecks, we’re rednecks…etc etc
Finns – “#142 – he had the chance in:
* NH
* Super Tuesday
* Texas Ohio
and Now.
It just reminds me of that State of Origin Rugby League game back in 1994 where NSW was beating the shit out of QLD but Mark Coyne scored a last minute try to win 20-18. Go Hillary, go.”
1. That was a great try. Coyne was a great player.
2. There is no way that Clinton was going after NH – she had a Super Tues strategy.
3. Super Tuesday was HER opportunity to knock Obama out. She didn’t take it.
4. Now if only she can ’seal the deal’ with a win in NC, she’ll be a real finisher!
Codger……….as a fish’s ring. Great contribution that site, go to the top of the class!
Also, the ‘Philly suburbs’ county of Delaware doesn’t seem to be updating either…
Staggering really, that over 25% of GOP votes are going to Huckabee and Paul.
A big cheerio to JV!
Wish you were here…we’re having soooooooooooo much fun!
According to the DOS site, Allegheny County has Clinton winning with 55.9% (includes Pittsburgh).
Here’s a detailled ananlysis by someone close to the action.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/livecoverage/
45% of Pittsburg just came in, 56/44 to Clinton. A bit of a surprise!
163
Ferny Grover
Augurs well for the general, eh?
159 KR
Just don’t go mentioning that ‘n’ word from the chorus. Irony is completely lost on some.
Smile,
Clinton winning in Pittsburgh doesn’t surprise me that much. Pittsburgh is much more of an industrial mid-western (i.e, hard hit by NAFTA and economy, etc) than Philly (which is much more liberal/mid-atlantic). That’s Clinton heartland.
More importantly, it’s worth remembering that Clinton did surprising well in the Ohion cities 6 weeks ago – particularly in Cincinatti, where she won (or almost did – can’t remember).
169
Ferny Grover
“irony”, isn’t that what you do to shirts?
Delaware surprises me a little, going Clinton’s way 52/48.
Clinton lead now 10% 55/45
DKos:
“Okay, so Clinton is behind about 820,000 votes in the popular vote count, which remember used to be REALLY important to the Clinton camp.
If the current margin holds, Clinton would gain about 200,000 votes. That would still put her well behind Obama, with Pennsylvania out of the way. The only big state left, North Carolina, will go heavily for Obama, probably taking back much of Clinton’s gains today (in both delegates and popular vote).
Speaking of delegates, Chuck Todd says that race is over.”
173
Ferny Grover
6.8% on the State site
Back to 8% – 54/46
KR the DOS site appears to be behind CNN in percentage counted
174
Pancho
Yes, her race is finished, Obama is ahead and she has run out of track to keep the Clinton choo choo train chugging along.
Watch the money dry up now. What will kill her off is the lack of oxygen, which as we all know from school chemistry:
O2=$
…in US politics.
Wow! Ron Paul is finally making his dash for the Republican nomination! 15%!
177
Ferny Grover
Yes, odd that the State site would be behind a commercial one, eh? Guess that’s America, huh?
Pancho, I think you get banned for too much quoting of Daily Kos around here.
Seems like it is all going to script ,6-8% as tipped by Obama, a moral victory for Hillary but it doesn’t help her in the braoder contest. Onwards to Indiana and North Carolina.
Am I the only one who had a chuckle at SL’s statement:
“Clinton winning in Pittsburgh doesn’t surprise me that much. Pittsburgh is much more of an industrial mid-western (i.e, hard hit by NAFTA and economy, etc) than Philly (which is much more liberal/mid-atlantic). That’s Clinton heartland.”
Not laughing at your statement SL, just that Clinton is doing best in the most NAFTA affected areas.
Duty calls at the most inconvenient times. Must go earn a living folks. I’ll catch you this evening after the dust has settled and we’re all arguing about what the results mean.
She loves you, yeah yeah yeah. Hillary is rockin’ and rollin’ in her bitterness.
Hillary is writhing in her death throes.
Later
Don’t know if it’s been covered above – but CPI just came out at 4.25% underlying…..
I tried to tell Glen it was a real problem….
CNN should be giving a decimal place. The difference between 54/46 and 54.4/45.6 (as it was a moment ago) isn’t to be sneezed at.
TW – Sorry. For some balance, this from FOX: “A grizzly bear killed a trainer Tuesday at a private facility for exotic animals used in movies and television, authorities said.”
Well overall the odds have change very little from before the count. It suggests that Clinton has won bragging rights for the next two weeks but has not made up enough ground.
She needs to do something very special in North Carolina (ie win) to turn the ship around.
TW, yeah, looks about what I guessed the other day (for the record, 10% plus or minus 2%), which is where it is now, 8%.
It’s slightly better than Obama was hoping for I’d guess, which given the demographic is not surprising, but your point about the rust belt of Pittsburgh is ironic. They’ve had a tough time, the Clinton era was better, and the Clinton machine is owed a lot of favours.
But on the other hand, 8% will be a blow for HRC, especially since she could have banked on 20% just a few months back. In other words, the Kid’s still got momentum to eat her margin and disable her enough that she cannot catch him. Camp Clinton knows that, so now, it’s probably more of the same, chucking the kitchen sink at him, and stooping to the low blows.
Until her money runs out, and that, ladies and gentleman, will be her demise.
She’ll fight, to the last dollar. (I cannot see her doing a Mitt Romney and spending her own, can you?)
I actually thought she’d win by more than this – I thought it would be around the 55-56 mark.
Still could become that. But still. No matter what way you look at it, there are two clear facts:
1. Fact #1: Obama has whittled down a 16-20 point margin down to around 8-10 in the space of a month or so.
2. Fact #2: Despite outspending her massively in the pas month, he still could not win the state.
Those are the two spin lines. Will be interesting to see which one the media takes hold of. I think either way, the fact remains Clinton has little left going for her. Next up is NC (which he will romp in) and Indiana (which Clinton holds a barely relevant 3 point lead in.)
Advantage Obama. Having said that… Clinton will now feed the thought that unless he can win both of those states convincingly, he will have lost the day. Positions are reversed from the PA primary. Politics is a strange business.
Max,
Fact 3. Obama has yet to win a swing State that could tip the POTUS election to the Democrats.
I think the most interesting thing has been the Repug primary. Paul has scored 16% and Huck 12%. If we think there are doubts about the Dem candidates, there has to be a huge question mark over McCain in PA.
184
Rates Analyst
I feel a “Volcker moment” coming on!
Maybe Stevens will be a bit cautious at first, but I read him as not being prepared to wait and let the dragon go on the rampage. He’ll do the manly thing, be a Volcker, and squeeze us where it hurts…for our own good! LOL
#189
2. Money will only go so far, though. There are diminishing returns the more you spend. What he did spend might have got him as close as he got from a long way behind, but couldn’t take him any further.
The problem with this result is that it is just enough for the media to keep talking up an ongoing contest between Clinton and Obama.
It’s painful watching Hillary die such a slow, slow, political death.
The only possible way out is for larger numbers of superdelegates going public with their endorsements.
GG: Winning a swing state when the contest is between two Democrat candidates is a completely different matter to winning when the contest is between two presidential candidates.
To win (the nomination), she needs to convince voters that Obama is not electable in November even though he’s ahead in the delegate race.
She needs a big influx of cash.
She needs a shocking change of fortune.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20080422/primary-analysis/
Nothing reversed in realpolitik, Max. All depends who’s doing the spinning.
Money is what Obama has; a huge Democrat party machine is what Clinton has, plus a demographic that’s old, Catholic and not for changing.
Well, too bad, coz dem old folks is gonna have’ta pull the lever for Barack in November, and it’ll do ‘em a might good…they’re too set in their ways!
GG,
Maybe. Or maybe a more accurate way of saying it is that Obama is getting all the swing voters, while Clinton is shoring up the hardcore Democratic base – which is going to vote anyway come November. Therefore, while he will get her votes, she won’t get as many of his. So it’s an advantage to him come November. It’s impossible to say with any sort of certainty.
I don’t buy the big state/swing state arguments. Also don’t buy the ‘Obama has won more states thus he should be nominate’ argument. The game is delegates. Second to that comes the popular vote, which many consider to be the ‘democratic’ argument. After that, everything becomes murky, and that goes for both camps.
There’s an awful lot of crying poor from the Clinton camp, including in her victory speech. I wonder how much petrol is left in the tank.
Apologies to newcomers whose comments were held up in moderation (Wanakee and Jonathan). Your comments will go through automatically now.
To those following the popular count vote…
Clinton currently has a lead (at time of me posting) of around 120,000 with 68% reporting. Let’s be generous and call that 2/3 of the vote.
This will mean that should current trends continue, she will end up with a net gain of 180,000 votes.
From what I’ve gathered though, a lot of the votes to come in favour her – the inner city voting. So let’s assume she gets a bit more than that, and round it out to 200,000. You can give or take 20k from that, it’s relatively insignificant.
So, even if you want to include Florida (and not include NV, ME and WA which help him), this is still going to leave Obama with give or take a 220,000 vote lead in terms of the popular vote. With North Carolina to come. And you can bet that will boost his lead back into the 300’s. Come May 6, I would suggest it would be mathematically impossible for her to overcome the popular vote no matter what state you want to include (except Michigan, but I don’t think anyone is seriously including that in their counts)
Having said that, as I said about 10 minutes ago… the game IS delegates. And anyway, there’s a good argument that a 1-2% lead in votes is nothing, and should be discarded anyway. So all this is irrelevant.
Fascinating contest. Hillary still alive (just). Remarkably poor result for McCain, given the absence of competition. Voters clearly engaged by the Democrat contest (aka catfight) – Democrat vote numbers outweighing Republicans 3:1.
Why are democrats voting for Hillary, a person more republican then John McCain?
It’s the ‘poor’ party machine Vs The Grass Roots Kid, eh?
I get the feeling this will be her Achilles heel ( along with trailing behind a few lengths as the leading horse approaches the line)
10 problems for Senator Duck-Slayer.
8. Remember that Hillary’s lead in Pennsylvania was as a high as 26 points only a month ago. (So draw back the microscope to get some perspective here, shall we?)
10. Remember that the only manufacturing job Hillary ever brought to Pennsylvania was the manufactured notion that she was a middle-class, whisky-swilling duck killer, and not an anti-union multi-millionaire.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/seth-grahamesmith/ten-things-to-remember-on_b_97897.html
Max @ 204,
Or Maybe Obama is getting the vote where the Democrats won’t win in November. To be a convincing candidate Obama needed to win Pennsylvania, Ohio or Texas and Florida.
The demographics are showing his greatest support is in the younger age groups. These groups are notoriously unreliable come election day. The counter side is that Clintons bedrock support is amongst the older blue collar voters. This is the group the Dems have lost and need back if they are to be successful in November.
The notion that they will simply transfer their allegiance to Obama if he is the candidate is seriously flawed piece of wishful thinking by the Obama Dreamers.
They have shown previously that they will vote Republican or not vote if their alleged candidate is a Liberal. And Obama is just another effete northern Liberal without any real plan to address their concerns.
If Obama can’t carry the day in the States that will make a difference then he is clearly a weak candidate.
meanwhile, in the very republican first district of Mississippi, a Democrat lead the ballot with 48.97% of the vote and made the runoff. of course, there was no party labels in this election, but still, it means more bad news for the GOP.
Chester and Lancaster (outside Philly) coming in now.
Pancho
Would plse post a link to the live coverage you are watching? Thanks.
V1M, just piecing things together from the CNN county map (here: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA) and a few blogs. I like the analysis on here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
GG, I suppose we all better prepare for President Bomb-bomb then. I’m hiring a Bobcat this weekend to start on the shelter.
GG
> And Obama is just another effete northern Liberal without any real plan to address their concerns.
‘Effete’ – not a terribly polite word to use. And I think you should educate yourself on its roots.
Effete derives from Latin effetus, “weakened by giving birth; worn out, exhausted; effete,” from ex- + fetus, “bearing young, pregnant.”
Hillary is winning blue-collar/working class, the so called Reagan Democrats. This group will decide Nov election. The Penn result shows “Bittergate’ is biting hard.
Once again Finns, I put a bet on the table. I’ll take any Democrat to win Penn in November. Game?
220 Pancho, you’ll enjoy this then:
The enthusiastic way Democrats trooped to the polls on Tuesday can’t be good news for the Republicans, who’ll send John McCain out in November to face the Democratic nominee, almost certainly Obama.
The conventional wisdom , spun by the Clinton campaign and reinforced by opinion polls showing that a significant number of Clinton Democrats say McCain is their second choice, is that Obama can’t win in November.
The Democratic base of working-class whites will desert Obama, they say. If he can’t win the primaries in big Democratic states — California, New York, Ohio or Pennsylvania — he can’t beat McCain.
The conventional wisdom, as it is so often, is wrong.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/mccain-loser-pennsylvania/story.aspx?guid=%7B0449D63A%2D37E1%2D4869%2DB9D3%2D173D3CD2ADE5%7D
On that subject, did anyone else catch Thomas E Manne on Lateline last night?
He’s one of the architects of the Super Delegate system in the Democratic party, and he was so casually certain that there’s no way the Supers will overturn the popular vote.
It’s Obama’s race, and Clinton can not, numerically, catch up.
Them’s the facts.
New York Times editorial
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?_r=2&ref=opinion&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
“The Pennsylvania campaign, which produced yet another inconclusive result on Tuesday, was even meaner, more vacuous, more desperate, and more filled with pandering than the mean, vacuous, desperate, pander-filled contests that preceded it.
Voters are getting tired of it; it is demeaning the political process; and it does not work. It is past time for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton to acknowledge that the negativity, for which she is mostly responsible, does nothing but harm to her, her opponent, her party and the 2008 election.
If nothing else, self interest should push her in that direction. Mrs. Clinton did not get the big win in Pennsylvania that she needed to challenge the calculus of the Democratic race. It is true that Senator Barack Obama outspent her 2-to-1. But Mrs. Clinton and her advisers should mainly blame themselves, because, as the political operatives say, they went heavily negative and ended up squandering a good part of what was once a 20-point lead.
…It is getting to be time for the superdelegates to do what the Democrats had in mind with they created superdelegates: settle a bloody race that cannot be won at the ballot box. Mrs. Clinton once had a big lead among the party elders, but has been steadily losing it, in large part because of her negative campaign. If she is ever to have a hope of persuading these most loyal of Democrats to come back to her side, let alone win over the larger body of voters, she has to call off the dogs.”
A 10 point win for Hillary looks good on the surface, but she’s making up virtually no ground on Obama in terms of delegates. The next two primary contests in North Carolina and Indiana would seem to favour him.
Obama will be the nominee when the dust settles, but how damaged will he be before the real contest with McCain begins?
223
Pancho
Call off the dogs with a dogwhistle? Does it work like that? LOL
Very good. But probably more a case of not having the cash to buy their dogfood before Indiana.
There were stories of Obama readying an SD push after Penn in order to manufacture an endgame in Indiana. Here’s hoping this result gives them enough cover to move – some before, some after May 6. This result certainly won’t buoy Hillary as far as the backroom is concerned.
Something better than CNN (even!): http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/
83.63 counted – Hillary 54.2, Obama 45.8
Dogfood! LOL
It’ll be hard for Camp Clinton followers to chow down on! But if you’re right, and the Supers start a move, she’s finished.
Manne seemed to think they’ll get to the convention (ie the SUpers will not move on mass beforehand or it will look ‘manufactured’, but he didn’t seem to have any doubt about the final outcome)
Let me make another prediction now. There WILL be a Dream Ticket. Dont know which is which but there WILL be a Dream Ticket.
Coming in around the 10% margin I expected, (based on eyeballing the RCP under-calling tendency of frontrunners!).
Of course the chattering about what it means will go on for hours, days…until the next vote, from which position she still will not be able to win! LOL
Is there a pattern here?
A runoff in a solid red Miss. seat: http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp. How bout that Dean and his 50 State strategy?! Now if only there was a candidate with croissover appeal…
Chester is dragging the chain. A handful of Obama votes to keep the single digits in the margin?
Obama’s speech went hard at it with McCain! I do like the way he keeps focused of what really matters!
231
Pancho
croissover appeal…
…is that French? LOL
Looks like the cry for help has been heard:
Our colleague Michael Luo, who’s keeping track of the money in this campaign, tells us that Clinton officials are saying they are experiencing their best
night ever in fund-raising online, bringing in well over $1 million in
the two hours since she was declared the winner.
…but whether it stays that way when the dust settles and the big picture remains unchanged, is another question.
“$1 million in two hours.”
I’m certain there’s a whole bunch of her creditors who would be interested in that information.
Elitist French.
235
dogb
Touche!
GG at 212
I agree with you – he does win a lot of ‘red’ states of which there is little to no chance of the Dems taking in November. On the flip, Clinton won a lot of states nobody in their right mind would suggest the Dem’s won’t win in November. Anybody here think New York is going to swing red? It’s an equally flawed argument that the Clinton camp will have the allegiance of the Obama supporters, especially the independents which countless polls have suggested she struggles to win over.
You can look at it from dozens of ways – and we all have over the past months. But it brings me back to my original point: in the end, the game is who can win the most delegates. I also think I’ve posted enough on this site to dismiss the illusion I am an ‘Obama dreamer.’ I’ve said on numerous occasions I haven’t decided between him and McCain, much to the dismay of many
. Is he a weak candidate? Perhaps. But the PR problem is the issue: you try being a group of SD’s and selling that idea to the supporters of the ‘winning’ candidate.
I said in a post the other day that the only person who can win this nomination for Clinton now is Obama (barring somebody like Gore coming out for her – but even then…) She is not going to win the pledged count. She is not going to win the popular vote – even if you include Florida, the chances of her winning it are unbelievably slim. The only way she can win – and this one isn’t my opinion, it’s fact – is if she can get a massive majority of remaining uncommitted SD’s to vote for her over Obama, or convince a relatively large number of pledged delegates to switch sides.
The only, ONLY way this will happen (in my opinion) is if Obama says something monumentally stupid, or if they manage to dig up some very dark secret from his past (eg ‘abortion should be illegal.’). Which means the real question now is what she does come June 3 if nothing like this has happened. Will she then pull out? Or take the Huckabee route – say she has been in this long, she owes it to everyone to stay in until Obama has 2025 delegates, thus giving her another month or two to try and land a killing blow?
All good fun really. And unbelievably amusing to the Republicans.
This is a solid win for Clinton.
In terms of the maths, a net gain of + 6 delegates is nowhere near enough, although I dont think even the most die hard Clinton supporters think she can catch Obama in terms of pledged delegates.
At the end of the day, these are two very good candidates, both of which can beat McCain. And Democrat voters, having had many opportunites to end this thing, continue to support Clinton in large numbers. I hope Finns is right in terms of a dream joint ticket, I just cant see either wanting/accepting second billing.
Agree with Max, the only hope for Clinton is a major gaffe or scandal for Obama, but the bottom of the barrell appears to have already been scraped. Otherwise, I cannot see the SDs suddenly flocking toward her when they have been trickling in the past 3 months
#239 – They are politicians. They want power. The way things are heading, they will have no choice. So they will find away.
One problem – ‘Commander in Chief threshold’. That will be a really tough hurdle to overcome, and the beginning and end of the Republican campaign. I think those 4 words have cost Hillary the VP slot.
The Obama-Clinton ticket is a pure naive fantasy. Taking Clinton on board would be a disaster for Obama.
Clinton-Obama makes more sense (at least to the Clintonistas) but as all sensible opinion is noting that all the maths is against Clinton winning and she could only now win by killing Obama on the Convention floor, it is very unlikely.
All the polls were wrong. All the exit polls were wrong. At 96% counted, Hillary is 55-45. My prediction was 12% for Hillary. Ah, if only the machines were working.
227 web site.
Not the main game but interesting the vote in Penn. for Attorney-General and Auditor-General are about 1.5m DEM to 600,000 REP reflecting the turnout for respective primaries.
Surely a big bad sign for REP/GOP in November
Would the Dems be better off with a winner-takes-all-delegates system than a proportional system, since that’s how it works in November? Hillary’s argument that she does better in the biggest states seems to me a valid one, since it may mean that she has a better chance of winning the states with the most electoral college votes in November. Obama may claim that his total of small states overtakes Clinton’s fewer big states, but can he beat McCain in enough of those states if McCain wins the big states?
Has anyone calculated what the delegate count would be under a winner-take-all system? Or take it further and remove from totals the delegates won in the states that McCain is highly favoured to win whoever he faces.
One poll I saw the other day had Gore on 49% if he were to run, ahead of both HRC and Obama.
Finns, while PPP must be embarrassed (ping-ponging from -20 to +3 Obama in a couple of weeks) overall I don’t think that overall the polls have been that bad. If the final poll averages showed Hillary +6, and the late deciders went to her by 20-25% (maybe 2-3% of the total vote?) they are thereabouts.
Finns.
To borrow from electoral-vote.com – these were the last minute polls today
State Pollster End date Clinton Obama
Pennsylvania Zogby Apr. 21 51% 41%
Pennsylvania Insider Advantage Apr. 20 49% 39%
Pennsylvania Quinnipiac U. Apr. 20 51% 44%
Pennsylvania Rasmussen Apr. 20 49% 44%
Pennsylvania Suffolk U. Apr. 20 52% 42%
Pennsylvania SurveyUSA Apr. 20 50% 44%
…pretty accurate I would have thought. I averaged them out for the hell of it – Clinton got 50.3, Obama 42.3. Which leaves 7.4 undecideds. Exit polls suggested that Clinton got 60% of undecideds, which is therefore about 4.3, which leaves us with
Clinton: 54.6
Obama: 45.4
…case rested.
Sorry for that display of geekism, I’ll return to my box now.
Overall that is.
Very impressive geekism Max
I thought so
Hillary now needs to win each race 69/31 to catch up in the SDs.
In the end, today was a bad result for Hillary, a bad result for Obama and a bad result for the Democrats. Actually, it was a bad day for Macca with Huck and Paul doing so well. I doubt there will be a lot of joy on any side.
It’s enough to make you bitter Diogenes.
Despite the fact that I prefer Obama, Clinton will not go second on the ticket, the only option for a joint ticket would be Clinton/Obama, but how could Obama do this if he is leading the delegate count
I note a few bludgers look like being eliminated from the PB Hillary ConcessionWatch. Anyone can add their name for the wine prize. Actually, when you look at that list, it correlates well with increasing bitterness and cynicism as you go down the list.
JV – 23 April @ 1000
Jen – 24 April @ 1000
Dyno – 24 April @ 1400
EC – 25 April @ 0900
HarryH- 7 May @ 1200
Pancho – 8 May @ 1200
Ferny – 3 June @ 2145
Asanque- 10 June @ 1400.
Diogenes- NEVER
Don’t know if anyones mentioned this yet but just read this
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23582626-601,00.html
I find that kind of talk disgusting, if Dick Cheney had said that, there would have been huge rucous.
When you need this kind of BS to keep your chances alive it’s time to call it a day.
#256 – Diog – Those on your list, like Obama, are just dreamers. Anyway, i like dreamers, so dream on.
I told ya’ll it would be 9% for Hillary didn’t I!
Well done Glen
GG & FINNS ,
Have not posted today because every hour I look I see the most outragous NON FACTUAL statements made by Obamabots here. Where to start ?
First: Clinton won easily , 10 points. Fact
Second: Obama threw a 3 to 1 Ads money compared to Hillary at Penns . Fact
Third: The SD’s will NOT exclude the actual number of Florida & Michigan registered Democrats (as opposed to the delegates won) when looking at the Popular vote calculations
Fourth: One site specialising in this & based on point 3/ now has Hillary leading on the popular vote !!!!!!
but I do dispute their calcs as I have it closer but its close enough to a tie now
Fifth: Penns. is not trending ‘blue’. Kerry (another Obama type) won it 51/49 , a non Obama Gore won it 51/46 BUT a Clinton (Bill) like Hillary who wins the working class won both his elections by a big 9 points. The trend is anti blue due to the elitist type candidate , not as stated earlier trending blue !
Sixth: Forget the current matchup polls now in Penns.& look at the demographics. There are a crucial 20 electoral vote here up for grabs. Hillary WILL win Penns. in Nov. based on Bill they clearly liked & Hillary they clearly do like. This primary suggests (and Kerry’s result also suggests) Obama is a massive risk compared to Hillary to win Penns.
(as he is in Ohio , whilst in Florida he is is no chance.)
Therefore the political message for the SD’s is Hillary is clearly more electable
Of course the naive Obamabots will dsay Obama will win NC next week easily , So ??? Its a 100% red state & therefore irrelevant.
Why did I write this ? not for the Obambots because these lattee drinking , the intelligentsia voting Labor as its the Intelligentsia thing to do , with elitists views use political stats like dispensible snouted. The objective was for GG and FINNS (who are more concise & are the A team) to slap down this Repugs set with some stats (if i’ve omitted anyone then stand up & defend what I’ve said or disagree with it with sound stats, for the moment hello the 2 amigo’s
(will provide demographic data shortly that makes the Hillary case even stronger)
(And finally to that ’set’, I have not bragged cause its political commentary hopefully provided dispassionately rather than on elitist views set.
And furthermore passionately I do want a US universal healthcare system from Hillary (that warts & all compared to Australia) is significantly better compared to Obama’s right wing free market based, shabby con-affordablity health policy
But then the ‘elitist’ based Obamabots are not interested in ‘policy wonks’
(K/R patent pending) because that actually involves helping 45 million uninsured poor disadvantaged Americans for which Healthcare is a luxury, yes IS a luxury
Finns
Should we have a separate list for when Obama will concede? I’d happily donate the Basket Press Shiraz if needed.
Surely Clinton will now win Indiana by 10points and come close in NC…
Obama has been raking in the $$ since Super Tuesday but has gone on to lose Ohio, Texas and now Pennsylvania not a good look if you ask me.
Diognes @ 256
What’s this? Sorry, I’ve been out of the loop a bit over the last few weeks – everything started to get a bit repetitive for my liking!
@ 261
LOL
Is Ron’s post typical of what has been going on in recent times? Is that it? Obamabots? In the words of Charlie Brown: Good Grief.
MoDo’s on form.
“Now that Hillary has won Pennsylvania, it will take a village to help Obama escape from the suffocating embrace of his rival. Certainly Howard Dean will be of no use steering her to the exit. It’s like Micronesia telling Russia to denuke.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23dowd.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Commiserations to my other colleagues, we April “fools” who have donated our vino to a most worthy cause. Best of luck to the rest. Are you in orwot, Doc? Does “NEVER” mean you’re going for HRC or McBomb-bomb?
Ron 261
In round figures Obama is up by 600K in the popular vote. Clinton gets another 300K if you include Florida. In Michigan, if you count Obama as “undecided”, she gets another 100K. That still makes her 200K behind.
Ron @ 261
> First: Clinton won easily , 10 points. Fact
DOS site with 98.80% counted is showing Clinton 54.3% to Obama 45.7%. This is a margin of 8.6%. Unless you’re rounding to the nearest multiple of 5 percentage points your very first point is not a ‘fact’.
Obama may have ‘lost’ Texas but he gained more of its delegates than did Hillary. But I agree that she’s a better bet than Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
BTW, Pennsylvania posts its votes much faster than Zimbabwe.
ec 265
The “never” meant I think Billary will not concede. It will go to the convention. Even there, she won’t concede, they will have to vote.
Max 264
Each bludger named the time of Hillary’s concession. We are each going to donate a bottle of wine to the winner.
Quick visit. I haven’t had a chance to read back.
However you want to slice it, it’s a disappointing result for Obama. Expectations were that he would keep her to single digits and he didn’t – just. He came from a long way back and ran a magnificent campaign but the ‘bitter’ thing bit with some and the overall negative campaign damaged him. Hillary will have the wind in her sails and will have learned that the more negative she gets, the better she does.
In the end, though, it doesn’t change much. Obama will shake off the losses here with a decent win in NC.
We are where we were. Hillary will fight on and Obama is still on track to win having encountered a PA speedbump.
“Second: Obama threw a 3 to 1 Ads money compared to Hillary at Penns . Fact”
Not fact. He did outspend her, but the figure is 2.3-1
99% Penns. Count
Clinton 54.7
Obama 45.3%
that is a big win
On an electoral college basis methodology which IS how Nov POTUS is decided , Hillary did win Texas
Hate to be naive, but wasn’t Hillary expected to win this by over 20 points, which she didn’t, and even then she didn’t have any real chance of winning the nomination over Obama unless the SD’s go against the popular vote? And that we don’t know… so, seems to me she did less well than was expected and Obama is still way in front.
#270
8.6 is single digits if you ask me (even though it’s two digits).
“On an electoral college basis methodology which IS how Nov POTUS is decided”
It is not an electoral college methodology, nor is it November. It is also a general Democratic position that the electoral college system is undemocratic, and there is hope it will be changed when they win the Whitehouse back. So this argument is a pretty sneaky one from particularly Bill Clinton to be mounting.
#262 – Diog – we the Clintonites would never be so arrogant. Just let events take their course and que sera sera. May the better candidate win. We know who the better candidate is, especially after today.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/us/politics/23assess.html?ei=5090&en=d199868c64820ecc&ex=1366603200&partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=print
273 Jen
Not exactly. The 20 point lead vanished over a month ago. Recent polling, and therefore expectations, had her winning by an average of 6 points. She has done much better than that – and therefore much better than recent expectations. Obama will have to face up to the reasons for that if he is to do better next time.
He will of course.
274 CNN has it at 55/45, hence my ‘double digit’ comment
Glen @ 263,
I am warming to your charm, intellect and incisive powers of political observation.
Cheers.
From http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ with 98.91 counted
Clinton 54.3, Obama 45.7. Margin 8.6 with outside Philly still coming.
It all comes down to Indiana people – forget NC (Obama will cruise to victory there) – if Clinton doesn’t win IN, she’s probably out.
It’s amazing – this is Obama’s 4th opportunity where he could have dealt Clinton a fatal blow – instead (like the other times), he’s blown it and given her the chance to fight another day!
GO HILLARY!!! (more like GO MY BET ON HER AT SPORTINGBET!!!
)
Ron @ 272 I notice you didn’t concede your error.
Arithmetical competency is a basic requisite for political punditry.
#273 – jen, since you asked, yes you are naive.
Hillary Hangs (on with) 10 It seems that all this politicking is good for democracy, if not necessarily for the Democrats.
Thank you Finns. Probably more like hopeful really.
Is it me or is HRC starting to sound like Bush when it comes to foreign affairs?
Ron, Hillary gave a great speech tonight. the best i have seen she made. Where as Obama was very flat. Not to mention that his supporters were bad losers.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/04/22/obama_supporters_boo_clinton.html
279
Greeensborough Growler – it’s nice to know we can agree on political points sometimes.
I shouldn’t think Hillary will have any trouble in Indiana she has Evan Bayh there and he’s a big plus for her campaign. Expect Obama to outspend Hillary again but the same result will apply in the end.
Looks like we’re going to Denver for the Democrats.
McCain must not be believing his luck right now.
So Obama has yet to win a Big Swing State and is ahead on popular vote due to the large turn out of african americans in Southern States.
Hillary still is in the game and Howard Dean and the Dem hierarchy don’t want a bar of it so as not to upset either side.
Not quite unbridled triumphalism, but this is on high rotation at Radio Growler.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwJvYJ4Wefc
Pancho
#275
Nonsense.
I am saying the SD’s have to (or should) look at each State Primary in terms of whether the Deomcrats can win in November
Their FIRST basis is to look at who won the vote (in Texas that was Hillary) because that is how POTUS in November is decided
So on that basis Hillary is a better chance in Texas than Obama
Want to debate that ?
Whether Hillary or Obama won the most delegates in the Texas Primary is irrelevant to my point & totally irrelevant to considering POTUS electability
Its the total count that first counts in considerations (followed by demographics etc) .
What you said is a red hering mentioning about who won the most delegates
You changed the argument. Someone here said Obama won the most delegates in Texas and I was pointing out it does not matter for POTUS considerations
notwithstanding that texas will not be on the Democrats closest radar
Just on this swing/battleground state stuff, what about Obama’s victories in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Maine? I wouldn’t swallow the Hillary line too fully if you want to analyse credibly.
“Their FIRST basis is to look at who won the vote (in Texas that was Hillary) because that is how POTUS in November is decided
So on that basis Hillary is a better chance in Texas than Obama
Want to debate that ?”
Yes. Neither is a chance in Texas in November, in the same way as both will win Penn.
This is a race for delegates. Get the magic number and you win. Ergo, mentioning delegates is not a red herring.
And so on we go.
More time for Hillary to bullsh*t the American public with her faux personas and made up history, while every word Obama utters is deliberately twisted and misconstrued to appeal to the prejudices of the least informed. How tedious.
SL@281 – I think that’s fair. But Hillary can’t just ignore NC – if there is a real blowout their whole SD delegation will fall to Obama, and they are already teetering. That would be a blow. And there will also be heat on John Edwards to hop off the fence.
On the other hand, Obama has the demographics sewn up there and can probably focus on Indiana (where he has to overcome the Bayh factor).
Deep breaths, Jen. The Kid is miles in front.
It’s a speed bump
Ron,
Careful mate, this Callum dude is the head of the Pedantry Police. Nothing to offer of his own. But, he knows how to nit pick. All essential skills for political punditry apparently.
like TX and OH?
Between the last primary and the convention, Hillary’s only hope will be to work the phones, schmooze the Supers, cull some kneecaps, and remind a few people of where various skeletons have lain burried.
Should that not be enough, and she’ll be doing all of the above whilst throwing as much excrement at Obama as she can invent, then she will know the gig is, at last, finally, (to put the preposition at the end), up.
Then she’ll have to decide whether she goes on the national stage and gets humiliated, or, bows out, and graciously concedes and tells the nation what a fine candidate…blah,blah….
So, unless she’s got a pistol to the head of more Supers than she’s managed to rustle up so far, she’s cactus.
That’s when she quits, before she has to walk on stage and watch the Clinton era get repudiated by the party. Not to do this, is too excruciating to contemplate…even for her.
ps. It was his second chance to finish it. NH was never an end game, and Super Tuesday was Hillary’s untaken opportunity.
Dogenes #266
suggest you look at some sites that do the calcs , its a ‘tie’ now with florida & michigan in
282
Callum Says:
Ron @ 272 I notice you didn’t concede your error.
Arithmetical competency is a basic requisite for political punditry
Ron: I do not normally reply to a knob but in your case I will.
“I said she won by 10 points . That’s a fact.”
It is a fact. You see I did not qualify as whether or not I rounded it
I subsequently quoted 9.7% being to one decimal point. That was at the time also a fact.
Now seeing you are pedantic , prove your case or be silent
Hey, $800 of the $2.5k I won on the Ruddslide has gone back on Obama getting the Dem nom. At 2.10 odds. And I’m feeling very relaxed.
286
Sinowestie
She’s channeling Joe Lieberman because when the Supers finally turn their backs, she’s going to defect to his party! LOL
301
Callum
Got mine at 5’s, so, likewise.
Ferny-
I am despairing. She is so awful in her plasticity that its like watching endless infomercials for depliatory products that can change your life on late night TV.
Same level of depth.
Diogenes ,
AFTER one now included the Penns. result which is what my original blog suggested
Even with this win Clinton is still a fair bit behind. She needed a much bigger win. Single digits is not good enough at this point in the game.
But it makes for an interesting contest.
Pancho,
The issue is that Hillary has her foot on a key demographic that may swing the election. Many of the Obama supporters will switch quite happily to Clinton. However, the vice versa may not be as true. Afterall, hasn’t the Clinton reign been described as the first Black Presidency.
The question is what happens in the key States were you to switch candidate. My contention is that Hillary is more likely to win overall than Obama.
Ron @ 300, you continue to prove yourself a fool.
At the time you said ten it was 8.7%. In a later post you confirmed the same figures I used to show this margin.
myself @ 308 – correction 8.6%. Now he’s confusing me.
Callum – beware. it’s like standing in quicksand.
The argument that HRC is a better bet for November based on winning the Democratic vote in particular swing seats is fairly mindless. The issues in November will be different and the crucial voters will be those who are not automatic voters for DEM or REP (regardless of nominal affiliation). Thats an entirely different proposition from the Primaries.
308
Callum
Carefull, Callum. No calumny allowed! LOL
It’s very frustrating, but we’ve ALL been there! LOL
I can lend you a very well used (and passed around) zip if you like.
or just try sitting on your hands for 2 minutes till the urge passes.
KR @ 303.
Congrats on your foresight and confidence. That must have been very early on. I got on Obama in the early hours after Super Tuesday when it became evident that Clinton had not won nearly big enough in her ‘big states’. Much like today really.
What I don’t get is why 3/4 million voters bothered to turn up for the Republican primary? It’s not as if they were deciding anything.
Not real good result for McCain BTW with Paul and Huckabee picking up a big slice of the vote.
This ‘wipe Iran off the map’ stuff (and that is basically what she said) is preposterous pandering.
Firstly, and perhaps most importantly is the simple matter of fact that Iran does not have, and is not making, a nuclear weapon. (You can argue that they might be, or whatever, that’s from the latest US NIE, doesn’t she not read them? LOL)
Secondly, modern Iran has NOT,ever, invaded nor attacked another country unprovoked (as in Saddam’s appalling effort).
Talk about potty-mouth neoconservative d!ck waving! It is so bizarre a thing to say I can just about hear the Democrat anti-war base groaning from here.
#307 – [The issue is that Hillary has her foot on a key demographic that may swing the election] – GG, you mean:
Hillary has the woman votes, working male/blue collar, seniors, hispanic, asians, jewish and catholic.
Whereas Obama has black, 18-30, College educated and upper income. I thought i just heard McCain saying softly “Obama, you can have these”.
#317 – i think i hit all of William’s panic buttons
Just Me #300
You make a very valid point. The win was not enough to narrow the delegate count lead obama has and indeed statisticaly hillary will never overtake Obama’s delegate lead in my opinion.
What I am sugesting are the choices are:
1/
who wins narrowly the delegate count (I’m suggesting Obama by about 2%)
who wins the overall popular vote(haven’t done stats but think Obama 1 to 1.5%
vs
2/ Hillary who is clearly more electable (happy to support that separately)
3/ Just over half of the 795 SD’s party officials have endorsedone or the other but they can all recant their vote at a convention under the Partys rules and indeed SD’s in the past actually have done so
Obama supporters will not debate point 2/ The reason is their argument for the moment is not supported by stats or history. What they debate is that point 3/ can not happen.
As an Obama doubtor I think it should because their prime responsibility is to select the most electable Candidate for their Party. I’m not certain they have the courage of their convictions to do so
314
Callum
Early December I think, and I got heaps from certain people here, and a certain Prof Carr, but he’s absconded to Kraut land and only turns up occasionally to slap us with his vastly superior knowledge and prognistications.
We of course, prostrate ourselves and whimper, being such ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ as he likes to call us.
Oooooooh, I go all tingly when I type that! LOL
Don Watson now on RN now talking about his new book, “Travels in America”.
oh, a double negative back there at 316.
I need an editor!
321
Enemy Combatant
Haha, and I just mentioned needing an editor! How ironic!
(I must not say any more or I’ll get slapped from she who must be obeyed!)
#322 – KR, u need a new ……. ah better not say it under William’s new edict or mandate from heaven?
261 Ron That’s the most logical piece of read on here for ages. Instead of the usual hysterical stuff that I’ve been reading here of late. Which has kept me on the Aussie politics part only lately.
HIllary has skyrocketing negative among Independents and Republicans. Obama does not. The argument can be made both ways. Which brings us back to (drumroll please) the contest that the Democratic Party have designed over decades to choose their nominee. This is the contest Obama is leading by all available metrics.
#326 Amigo, so was NSW in in 1994 before Mark Coyne’s last minute try.
Finn, not sure if you realise. This isn’t a football match.
Don’t try to butter me up with that slippery genius Finns.
For every Steven Bradbury moment there’s a thousand races where the guy coming last……..comes last!
#328 – i thought it is called the political football.
“I leave you gentleman now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That’s your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you’re going to be missing. You won’t have Nixon to kick around any more” – Tricky Dicky Nixon 1962.
Ron, you can take comfort in that most of the main stream media seems to share your level of innumeracy.
I am seeing many articles reporting the margin as ten points. While the official figures clearly show 8.6%.
As I said before, you can only call this 10% if you round to the nearest 5 percentage points, which seems rather generous.
#329 Amigo, btw still hurts, that last minute try.
I think the bottom line is that Obama is clearly heading for the Nomination. On current form Clinton cannot overcome his lead in either deligates or the popular vote.
The only hope for clinton is that with enough pressure for long enough Obama will crack in a manner spectacular enough to derail his campain.
I think Obama knows that all he needs to do is not screw up. He can take a few hits, the odd gaffle, a loss in Penn – just not a major mistake.
I think this is why it seems like he is not going for the kill.
Clinton’s hair brain (or hair trigger) comments on Iraq are, in part, trying to tempt Obama into an equally foolish comment.
So my prediction is that Hilary will be throw more red-neck ideas around and Obama will keep it safe to the point of boredom.
Finns,
Rememeber Cat Stevens classic Wild World”. Remeber that classic lyric, “O-bama baby it’s a wild world?”
I think the Obarmy Army are?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYlO26Ai09o
Pancho #291
Just on this swing/battleground state stuff, what about Obama’s victories in Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, and Maine? I wouldn’t swallow the Hillary line too fully if you want to analyse credibly.
Ron says
You did not reply to my #290 at all but brought up a different subject in #291
I’ll reply to your #291 in any event. I was talikg of swing states ie winning red states off the Repugs & Hillary is stonger in Ohio & Florida
You listed 8 States , & are already blue and Virginia a red state , Obama to win ? Its a reasonable solid red State. So none of your 8 states are I think where the election will be won or lost & your post is. The problem with obama supporters is their man is not the more electable , despite your dislike for Hillary
#335 – GG, you old rascal. saw the Cats the other night on ABC1.
The benefits of being on the A team with your skills , you guys get to enjoy the rewards and leave the B team to right the dreamers who lack the stats
Not particularly excited about this contest because I don’t like one of the contenders (Obama, Clinton or McCain). I console myself in the fact that whoever wins is bound to be a step up from Bush.
There’s something unsettling about Obama… and Clinton is just uninspiring. On the other hand McCain is a Republican… not exactly spoilt for choice are the Americans this year.
Ron,
There’s a reason no one debates the claim that Hillary is more electable than Obama, and that’s because it’s similar to the Liberal Party’s claim that interest rates are always lower under a Liberal government. It can’t be proved or disproved, as there is no possible way to test it.
Well Ron, we’ll have to agree to disagree there, because there is no way in this world that you can convince me that a candidate who only 39% of the nation think is trustworthy is more electable than someone who Republicans seem to admire, as any number of polls and oppinion pieces will attest.
In Clinton vs. Obama, Age Is One of the Greatest Predictors
This is an interesting viewpoint
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/us/politics/22age.html?em&ex=1209096000&en=72d0428dc016414c&ei=5087
And fyi, I responded to 290 @292.
340 – Thank you Al. That’s the fact the r/Ron continually ignores. Generally by confusing his opinion with fact.
Truth is, the only way the Dems have of judging who is more electable is to run some sort of pre election poll. Hang on……
305 Ron
I’m using the RCP stats which include PA. Their one with Hillary ahead by 122K includes Florida and Michigan. While I can wear the Florida result, to give Michigan to Clinton by 330,000 with Obama getting zero votes really makes a mockery of the figure so I used a very generous method and gave it to Hillary by 100K, which still leaves her behind by 200K.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
The really sad thing about this is that it is obvious to me that if Hillary had’ve campaigned well at the start and nailed it already, we would have a very happy Clinton/Obama dreamteam which would have killed McCain. No matter how much I dislike Hillary, she is getting a lot of people to vote for her, which is what politicians do.
John Howard is to replace Hillary!!!
Just heard on ABC radio 702 that the Rodent is being considered to replace Sir Edmund Hillary for the Order of the Garter. Sir John Howard, hmmmm Hyacinth Bucket will be pleased.
Although I prefer Obama, it is perfectly legitimate for the Clinton camp to discuss the issue of electability, and as I’ve said before I worry that US voters will not vote for a black president, although of course they should.
It is also legitimate for the SDs to go for whomever they choose, regardless of the pledged delegate count or popular vote (neither of which will be a huge margin to Obama in any case). That has always been the case with SDs and you cant change that.
My point is, though, that if you look at the SD trends, it is Obama who has been picking them up at a much greater rate than Clinton, and I cant see anything dramatically changing to alter that trend. the Clinton hope that there will be a deluge in her direction is, I believe, pure fantasy
Btw, there’s a new SurveyUSA poll out in North Carolina – the gap is down to 9% (I think it’s Obama 50, Clinton 41).
That’s down from the 16% average lead that Obama has had in NC for the past couple of weeks.
We’re coming back! WE’RE COMING BACK!!!
Callum #308
Ron @ 300, you continue to prove yourself a fool.
At the time you said ten % it was 8.7%. In a later post you confirmed the same figures I used to show this margin.
Ron says
I usually do not reply to the same knob twice.
Anyone who reads my #300 post knows it made your argument #272 look silly.
Not content with your embarassment , you raise the stakes by NOW saying
“At the time (at my #261 blog) it was 8.7%”.
So I either made the ten % up and/or I’m a liar in my first post of the day #261
William’s site shows my #261 as 3.07 PM.
A check of both the CNN News and Fox sites at 3.07 PM will both show the headline & story of Hillary 55% to 45% (rounded). A check of the CNN election site at 3.07 PM will also show the actual votes both got at the then 95% count & the site also showed the 55% to 45% as well .
I used all 3 sources (& a few others I might add) before I posted at 3.07 PM.
With technology , a simple email to both CNN sites & to Fox can prove I’m a liar.
Had your knob comments been made in any other juridiction but a blogoshere I can assure you,you would have not only embarassment now but no house left.
and yes its 9.4% not 9.7% but thats not your ‘liar’ allegation is it
347
Andrew
Well, the first thing that you have to consider is being mauled by Carville, and then there’s all the backroom flack, so no wonder there’s still some afraid to leap on the Obama train! LOL
This is a difficult party decision: two strong candidates, both bring out the vote, but with quite divergent demographics. There’s going to be a disappointed group of nearly half the party membership no matter what, but the argument cannot be made that all of them will not vote Dem in November. That’s absurd.
When a nominee is settled, so will the party be. Once McCain is the target, they’ll focus on that target. This is probably true for either candidate, BUT, it has to be decided by the SUpers whether Clinton is generating too many negatives for the Indi and Repub voters who may NOT want McCain.
Therein lies the problem. Clinton’s brand is getting tarnished by the tactics she’s employing to just stay in the race she cannot win without Supers overturning Obama’s lead.
It looks like Camp CLinton has decided that negative is their only hope, and want to slime Obama enough to snare him in it. If he does not respond he looks too much like Kerry avoiding a head on confrontation with the SwiftBoaters, and if he goes for her kneecaps he sullies his pitch.
Fascinating to watch, but I think the ‘bomb bomb Iran’, of Clinton this time, is really a bomb too many, and I’d expect that one to really backfire. Although it seems the more we go on, the more things stay the same, and that the demographics have already determined the outcome.
Pass the popcorn…
Sorry, joining the game late here as I go to work.
So the degelate count is looking like its 90 Clinton, 68 Obama (with 10 still to be sorted). That means the current tally for elected delegates is at 1484 Obama vs
1333 Clinton. Superdelegates is 255 Clinton to 230 Obama. So Obama is about 110 delegates ahead.
There are only 398 elected delegates to go from now on. In order for Clinton to take the lead in the elected delegates she needs to win about 70% of all the remaining delegates. I can’t see the democratic party being too willing to overrule the public vote (given what happened in 2000).
Feeling the pressure Ron?
Only a couple more months of this charade till the dream dies for the Clintonauts.
And there is 187 up for grabs with Indiana (72) and North Carolina (115) on May 6th. Obama is going to win in NC and Indiana is going to be close. If Obama wins both, it’s over. If he wins NC and draws Indiana or loses by less than 5%, it’s over. If Obama loses both, then it is game on.
So the odds are May 7th Clinton is out.
‘Cause we’re rednecks:
Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all.
NYT
…and we’re keepin’ the niggas down! LOL
Diogenes #345
305 Ron
“I’m using the RCP stats which include PA. Their one with Hillary ahead by 122K includes Florida and Michigan”
Ron says:
Thanks Diogenes for the your frankness. This was precisely what I did say in my #261 blog (but without figures , although I had them).
I might add seeing I do tell the truth here and what I’m about to say is unfavourable to Hillary , however in my opinion whilst that site is very credible it has made some stat errors I think favouring Hillary & therefore the actual difference notionally is about a tie in % terms
In relation to Michigan , there are I’ve acknowledged before valid arguments both ways…but that has been about whether the delegate numbers should count.
The argument as to whether the registered voters should count in the popular vote count is a slightly different argument. Questions of democracy & ignoring all Michigan registered democrats completely can be put with stronger conviction to argue their inclusion in the popular vote count . Added to the democracy argument is that those Democrat registered voters who are the real faithful did vote , well over half a million. All who voted for Hillary(whose name was on the ballot) intentionally did so. All those who did not want Hillary (and there were over a few hundred thousand) voted for the alternative whose name was ‘uncommitted’ which also included John Edwards supporters as well.
I believe based on the above reasons the SD’s will include both Michigan & Florida in their popular vote calculations. re-replying to the barbarian is not wise
in how to keep ‘friends
TurningWorm #353
Feeling the pressure Ron?
Well thank you Turning Worm , no I’m actually smiling as we ’speak’.
I’ve seen the disadvantaged first hand so anyone else should never complain and I do not. Hope you are well my friend
Quick everybody, get under Hillary’s nuclear umbrella:
http://www.salon.com/ent/video_dog/comedy/2008/04/23/bateman/index.html?source=video&aim=/ent/video_dog/comedy
Ron 356
Michigan should really be counted as a winner for Obama. He is ahead in the polls for a rematch by about 10%. More importantly, in Michigan the Votemaster gives Obama a win over McCain (43/41) and Clinton loses to McCain (37/46). In fact, Michigan is Obama’s biggest trump card as it’s the biggest state where he is predicted to win and Clinton lose. I think it would be best to leave it out of the popular vote for fairness reasons.
Ho hum… and the circus goes on, Hillary still clutching at straws, Obama still having to divert his attention away from the real battle with McCain.
If anyone thinks Hillary plans to call it quits before the convention, please think again. Even if she loses Indiana, and Obama gets more pledged SDs, she will still be at the convention hoping that enough SDs suddenly change their mind.
She will not bow out until she is completely rejected, but in the process, could end up doing a great deal of damage to Obama. Already she is turning very negative and her win in PA will encourage her to keep going negative.
I guess it’s up to Clinton to seal the deal and win in North Carolina and Indiana now.
Pressure was all on Obama the last 6 weeks to claw back ground.
Now it all goes on Clinton.
Let’s see if she has the goods.
Writing off North Carolina is not good enough. Let’s see if she can win it.
HarryH, it is very unlikely Hillary will win NC, just as nobody expected Obama to win PA.
And even if she did win, including the remaining states, she would have to win massively to overtake Obama on pledged delegates.
“Harry d’Horses hit” (space not essential) enters the stadium with his unique logic sumersaults.
The children love a clown.
BS Fairman,
The Democratic Primary is not ‘the public”. They are the rusted ons. The tough decision for the SDs is “Who will win in November?”.
GG – Harry presents a mirror image of the ‘Obama can’t seal the deal’ argument. I agree it’s rubbish.
Michigan and Florida will hang over the Democrat 2008 primaries for a long time. An internal party dustup might have cost Hillary Clinton the nomination and almost certainly the presidency as a result. She has been playing catchup with a stacked deck (love those mixed metaphors). The job of the Super delegates will be tough if it stays close. They are part of the process just like other imperfect aspects of the process.
I feel a blog post coming on.
One has to hope that the American public would prefer a POTUS who is honest, aware of the realities of life for those who struggle to survive, has an awareness of how it is to be a part of a minority that has had untold suffering and bigotry in its history, and can think about issues with a depth of perception that shows understanding and a willingness to think of new apporaches and strategies to deal with some of the major issues facing the US and the entire planet. And that ain’t Hillary Clinton or John McCain.
Who put the bop in the bopsuwadawada
Who put the lamb in Obama’s lambs and ding dongs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ISxxdLOxnQ
#368 – Jen – yes, there is one such person, it’s called Bambi
Kevin – maybe. Or maybe the fact that she is broke, and still losing even if we count those two states means that it was an inept big state strategy that cost her the nomination rather than the Democratic Party being out to get her.
well Finns- let’s hope bambi wins then. It’sgot to be better than what another stint with the Clintons is looking like. And McCain is McBush.
Finns – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4uuasUO1eE
???
OK, WTF?
I’ve just watched Clinton’s speech in Pa.
She’s taking the high tone towards Obama (only a few references to his vast advertising budget in Pa.), with Obama increasingly being negative. And here people are saying that she should quit? No way.
#1 – In a democratic nation, any citizen has the perfect right to run for election to any office they desire.
#2 – Say what you will about Clinton (My thoughts were none-too-positive during the last few weeks), she is a fighter. Quarrel as you please with her tactics, her motives, etc. (a debate too big to get into lightly), but the woman is tough and a fighter. If she wants to take it to the DNC in August, that’s her right. If the DNC backs Obama, then she should do what she can to help him win in November.
GG
That giant marlin is looking awfully skeletal from where I’m sitting.
#369 – GG, it’s The Ding Dong Song
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=H2eqg8X9bdA
MC -
“she’s tough and a fighter” . great. that’s worked well for us all to date.
Ron @ 349
> Had your knob comments been made in any other juridiction but a blogoshere I can assure you,you would have not only embarassment now but no house left.
Rather an agressive character aren’t you Ron. Threats now? So sue me for calling you a fool.
And let’s look back over the thread.
Your first comment #261 at 3:07
> Have not posted today because every hour I look I see the most outragous NON FACTUAL statements made by Obamabots here. Where to start ?
> First: Clinton won easily , 10 points. Fact
You start out saying others are being un-factual and your very first ‘real fact’ is wrong. I don’t care if you saw it on CNN and Fox. As I said later they share your innumeracy. The real figures that matter, the official ones, at that time showed a margin of 8.6%. With 98.90% of the vote counted the margin was never going to be 10%.
You confirmed the figures that I quoted 16 minutes later in your post 272. Figures that showed a margin of 8.6%
But below that comment when you now had the real figures and margin you still seem to have trouble calculating the margin. At #300 you say 9.7%.
Am in a very recent comment (350) you say
> and yes its 9.4% not 9.7% but thats not your ‘liar’ allegation is it
No Ron, it’s 8.6%. Has been since before you first commented, is now, and will stay within 1 decimal point of that figure.
Over and out.
Where’s that William when you need an edict?
364
Greeensborough Growler Says:
April 23rd, 2008 at 6:39 pm
“Harry d’Horses hit” (space not essential) enters the stadium with his unique logic sumersaults.
The children love a clown.
The NYT, who endorsed Hills, sure dont agree with you Mathew:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23wed1.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
Callum-
clearly you haven’t being doing this for long.
There’s a support group if you need it.
364
was that the old DLP labradour growling again?
if irrelevance were a desired quality you would be an envied ol dog.
#381 – so jen r u going to mollycoddle callum just like the media has been mollycoddling Obambi?
I’m just watching Newshour discussions about PA, and one guy is saying that the problems with American started way back, McCain and Clinton’s generation, and the solutions will be only beginning, if they do, with the next generation.
It’s an interesting way of saying why he sees Obama as the right candidate as he connects better with that generation.
There’s something in it, if one considers all that’s going wrong in the US, that is.
“If she wants to take it to the DNC in August, that’s her right.”
Matthew Cole, of course Hillary has every RIGHT to hang on as long as she likes, provided that she is still playing within the rules set down by the Democratic Party.
But there is a difference between doing something because you have a right to do so and doing something in the best interests of your party, and ultimately the country. If Hillary hangs on all the way to the convention AND continues to bgo negative, providing ammunition for the Republicans to use against Obama in the general election, then she is no longer serving in the best interests of her party.
yes Finns, what the world needs now is love, sweet love.
(and`that ain’t Rocky Clinton – although I do think Bill did his best to assist the situation)
Diogenes,
Hope you saw my earlier comment.
Obama should have quit while he was behind.
Finns,
Can’t argue with that. Did not understand a word. Was there a Go Hillary part?
380
Pancho
I think there’s going to be a lot of that in the next few days and weeks Pancho.
Going in bare knuckle with stuff like that is going to turn a lot of people (older women?) right off her.
It’s a gamble she feels forced to make, but given her political instincts are being forced by the circumstances of desperation, they may be wrong.
#384 – KR – No, the problem with America started in 1620 with Mayflower.
LOL! The Obama trots are squirming in their seats as pragmatism inundates the Democratic primaries!
#396 jen, can’t you even find a little soft spot on the top right hand corner of your heart for Hill? She gave a great speech tonite, truly.
GG, the whole channel is for Go Hillary!
Pancho, stuff like that is very disillusioning. Hillary is rapidly sounding like yet another neo-conservative Republican captivated by Rove-style politics.
If I were a Hillary supporter AND a Labor or Greens supporter, I would be starting to have a tough time reconciling my personal political persuasion.
Harryd’H.
Playing with your Clown balls again. Pretty soon you’ll stratin up and fly right.
Finns- used to like her more I’m afraid. Somewhere beween Bosnia and botox she lost me.
Hi GP,
Long time no battle.
Did you see Paddy O’Rourkes piece in the Oz yesterday.
Cheers.
#395. jen, dont knock Bosnia. been there and sat on the Mostar Bridge.
You took more risks than she did then Finns.
No 396
Unfortunately not – do you have a link?
Growler- see it?
he probably wrote it.
GG, you’re falling in with an odd crowd these days my man! Just make sure you stub your ciggies out behind that shed if you hear people coming.
I thought there were two vacancies for the Order of the Garter, for Heath and Hillary…
Prince William though has been given 1 of the spots.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=561349&in_page_id=1770
Prince William, 25, is appointed a garter knight by the Queen
Howie will have his fingers crossed he gets the 2nd spot!
I wait for the triumphant day that we shall all know him as Sir John Howard. Keating will have heart palpitations. I cherish the thought!
Glen and GP – you may have the wrong thread. This is the US elections.
394
LOL
at the boringly repetitive sexual connotations in the ol Labradours posts.
keep growling lonely boy
I’m back now. Edicts: no more arguing between Ron and Callum, no more name-calling by GG.
whoops -sorry Billbo. May have been stepping on your toes .
You’ll have to get a wriggle on with that campaign GP – I hear we’ve only got a few years left as a constitutional monarchy.
Hi GP,
Here is the link.
Have seen a few embarrasing predictions in the pursuit thereof. Thank goodness that blogging is a memory free activity.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23578176-5013948,00.html
i just love the irony of life, just love it. Here we have the Huffington Post, Obama’s supporter and worshiper No: 1 and Hillary hater no: 1. Just look at its latest headline:
CLINTON SURVIVES ANOTHER DAY – Clinton 55, Obama 45 … Obama Improves Among Whites, Older Voters… Full Exit Poll Details… Clinton Camp: $2.5M Raised Tonight … Clinton Has Lost Elected Delegate Fight … Can Hillary Overtake Popular Vote? … NYT Blames Clinton For “Mean, Vacuous, Desperate” Campaign
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/
Yet it was the Huff that posted the Bittergate tape that will go down in history to be as famous as the Watergate tapes. Just as the Watergate tapes cost Nixon the POTUS, The Bittergate tape will also cost Obama the POTUS. Life’s sweet little irony.
No 408
I’ve not heard a legitimate argument for change. The system as it currently stands entails one of the most stable democracies in the world. I urge all of you to join Australians for Constitutional Monarchy!
GP- are you in it?
The transmogrification of Beltway Brutusina:
http://www.ajc.com/shared-blogs/ajc/luckovich/upload/2008/04/evolution_of_a/mike04222008.jpg
Life Insurance for others to die for.
http://www.markfiore.com/white_house_life_0
Wed. April 23: Why politicians cannot obtain Insurance against stupidity.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=A0WTUfg0Aw9IdNcA7BMDwLAF
Hey Finns, that is the third time of late you have made comments about the bias of the HuffPost and how amazing that they have published articles you have wanted to cite. While it must be wonderful to be constantly amazed at the world, if you are constantly being amazed by the same biased paper’s ethics, perhaps it is time to readjust your take on their biases.
No 409
Thanks GG for that link. Interesting comedic relief but I refuse to endorse John McCain.
Ron Paul was the only true conservative pundit.
Kev’s an elitist though, GP. He’s just not in touch with us monarchists on the street. I still say you should be getting more signatures for your johnny petition.
#414 Amigo. so you are counting. tq for caring.
No 416
I’d very much enjoy that. Walking the streets with Dolly Downer (a fellow monarchist) should assist our cause. He was surprisingly popular in Western Sydney during the election campaign.
Din’t Hillary just have a resounding victory?
Someone forgot to tell the punters.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
A few hours late to the party, but here goes anyway…
Commiserations Jen, EC, JV, I think we’re all in the same boat and our HRC concession predictions are well off target. Oh well.
Congrats to other bloggers who are obviously more prescient than us.
bugger. drank the bottle of wine to drown my disappointment.
Always Finns (well sometimes anyway). Never know when a jig or reference to classic ball-playing centres might emerge.
Jen,
I’m a red neck too!
Just missed my mouth with a glass of claret.
Seems to me this is just a stay of execution for HRC. But I guess if there are enough stays of execution she might go to the Convention. She can’t catch up on pledged delegates or on popular vote (please don’t try to tell me Michigan should count!) so there’ll have to be a better reason than any we’ve seen so far for the SDs to dump Obama.
Theoretically possible – yes.
Likely – no way. As someone said today for every Steve Bradbury there are 100 losers.
#420 Dyno, yes, Hillary will concede real soon. i believe it will be on January 20, 2009 at Capital Hill. Is that not soon enough for u?
Grinch- hate that.
especially if on a hot date and trying to be all sophisticated and elegant.
Dyno,
“so there’ll have to be a better reason than any we’ve seen so far for the SDs to dump Obama.”
How about, the Democrats want to win the POTUS.
Finns –
i heard` part of Hillary’s speech – as much as I could stomach with that voice and cheesy grin- and she sure does know the address of the Whitehouse.
But then she would, as I suspect they think they own it.
Jen,
You should just accept yourself for who you are.
No 428
Stop being so resentful Jen. You’ll still get all the trottish goodies under Hillary.
yep- elegant and sophisticated.
bad typist though. Could be the false nails come to think of it.
Finns,
I’m quite relaxed about the whole thing. Any of the three will be a vast improvement on GWB.
How do you envisage HRC’s miracle comeback is going to take place?
trouble is GP, we get Hillary and Bill too.
suerly once was enough.
dyno- my pet budgie would be a vast improvement. doesn’t mean we shouldn’t aim higher.
No 433
If it were up to me, all three candidates should have been relegated to the dustbins of history. Neither are especially inspiring. Ron Paul was the true voice of freedom and hope.
GP- Ithought that was John Howard.
Diogense
#356
I do not see Michigan falling to the Repugs whether its Hillary or Obama.
The pollster used by votemaster was not in any of the 15 odd pollsters used for Pens. and so I took no notice of it & would have done so had the figures been reversed. I’ve treated Michigan as remaining blue
As I said this is a reasonable blue state & even Kerry won it by 3% so Michigan is not a ’swing’ state for either of them to push their case on (Hillary won over 55% there first time).
As to the original count numbers counting , we do disagree however it can be reasonably argued both ways
Dyno,
There is this simple ingredient called “Super Delegates”. They can say what they like, promise you things and lie to your face and then do whatever they intended to do in the first place (just think teenagers).
GG @ 427,
They want to win POTUS – why wouldn’t they choose the person who won their own delegate count and popoular vote?
They want to stay on-side with their own local Party members – why wouldn’t they choose the person who won their own delegate count and popoular vote?
Imagine if they chose Hillary and she lost to McCain (which could happen, by the way) – wouldn’t that be an entertaining discussion to have in November with the local party members “We went against the will of our members to choose an establishment candidate, and lost as a result, but we were sure we were doing the right thing”.
SDs are politicians first and foremost and self-preservation is paramount. They will have to be given a very, very good reason to override their own party’s electoral process.
#432, Dyno, I am predicting a Dream Ticket. Dont know which is which though, ’cause:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Do they “power sharing’ concept in the USA. Obama should ask his relatives in Kenya about this, as they are in a power sharing situation.
“….. for every Steve Bradbury there are 100 losers.”
Dyno, perfect laconic Aussie retort for the platitudinous, “you’ve got to be in it to win it”.
Guess Jen and jv(we missed you) and you and me were the also rans who skated on their arses in the final.
Forever doomed to be the Buzz Aldrins of Bludgerdom!
Mathew Cole
#374
“….but the woman is tough and a fighter. ”
I think you make a good point. I think Hillary has ‘ticker’ which is essential for a successful POTUS
I have to say after seeing (later) Obama under a few tough questions fom the ABC moderators , that he sweated , stubbled & did not handle the pressure at all
This reinforced my suspicion he lacks ‘ticker’ because its only under that sort of stress the ‘unpackaged’ Pollie gets shown up.
Dyno,
Good post and raises the question that goes to the heart of the whole shebang.
Are the rusted on Democrat supporters the best judge of the electable candidate in November?
Their track record over the last thirty years is not good. Also, Hillary is a key member of the only Democratic winning team since 1976.
There is also the win today by Hillary which switches the momentum in terms of populist support.
There are arguments to the contrary which will no doubt be argued.
I just think Hillary is a winner.
Chers.
EC-
I can live with it. He’s still got a big lead for the nomination and with more time to campaign Hillary won’t be able to resist her fantasy-driven self promotion. Which will do her in with broader based demographic groups than she has in Pa.
I won’t give up. But I’ll have to buy a bottle of wine.
Hillary…a winner???
She can’t even beat a novice in a primary she was odds on to win.
BILL Clinton was a winner. HILLARY Clinton is a loser.Bill won his election when he was fresh and new and lovable.
Now both Clintons have a negative rating in the high 50’s.They are both unelectable.
Time catches up with all.
GG @ 438,
I agree that SDs can do what they want and their promises to date mean the same as any politician’s promise – a bit, but not too much.
However I reckon your average SD will be thinking arse-covering as much as anything – if they go with the winner on pledged dels and popular vote and he ends up losing to McCain – “well, it’s not my fault”. But if they over-turn the people’s choice and they end up losing – that would be career-limiting for quite a lot of SDs.
Your question about whether the party faithful are the best to choose a winning candidate – I agree it’s debatable. Some of the things Obama seems to believe will go down like a lead balloon with independents and moderate Republicans (most or all of whom don’t vote in the current contest, but they all can vote in November). But balance turnout considerations against that – he seems to be brilliant at getting the vote out, a big point when voting is voluntary.
My take: Hillary’s postponed her own execution, but she still needs a miracle, and I can’t really see where that is coming from.
CBet have just reposted their Board Odds. And whaddya ya know!
They are exactly as they were before today’s action in PA.
OBAMA, Barack 1.90
MCCAIN, John 2.75
CLINTON, Hillary 5.00
Thought Duck Slayer would’ve been in to at least $4.50, maybe even $4.00 the way some Brutusina boosters have been carrying on, but hey, after my recent diplay of viticultural punting non-prowess, I don’t know nuthin’!
Dyno,
You argue your case well. But, I disagree ( of course).
The final result will be decided by research, swing state winnabilty and momentum.
My advice is don’t get overly pre-occupied with the commited delegate count. The SDs will decide the outcome.
As Bette Davis said, “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.”
No 445
How insufferably naive! Hillary is the pragmatist, the clearly more electable candidate of them both! Your incessant inner-trot can’t handle the truth!
Evening all,
Something strange is happening on Sportingbet. Obama was paying $1.95 2 days ago. Tonight he’s $1.22. I guess the punters are seeing Hillary’s last chance just passed her by.
Generic Person
pls point out which sentence in 445 is untrue.
No 451
All of it.
In “Middlemarch” George Eliot gave us this profound advice:
“It always remains true, that if we had been greater, circumstances would have been less strong against us.”
Obama needs to consider the application of this principle to the PA campaign….
…and Hillary for her whole campaign.
EC,
Here’s a random sample of results from today.
Q.How many on less that $1.90 that have gone down.
A. All of them.
OOps forgot the link.
Too much licking of my redenck shoulder.
http://www.tab.com.au/Racing/Information/Results/DisplayMeetingView.aspx?State=1&FromDate=2008-04-23T00%3a00%3a00
GP – “Hillary is the pragmatist, the clearly more electable candidate of them both!”
I’d almost be inclined to back you on this one except for the fact that Bill WAS elected President.
Hilary is the past, Obama is the future and the world needs a leader with vision and he i think will deliver it.
452
well you are right on one sentence. my mistake.
the first sentence of 445 was supposed to read “nomination” not “primary”.
Tues April 22: A woman walks into a bar………..again! http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Au_GWTqRqlgLIV8rTeYB.lDd.sgF
Wed April 23: A matter of Democratic conCERN.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=At_IhciLlwlIlWKxxTfasCVT_b4F
—————-
“Too much licking of my redenck shoulder.”
Yeah, Growler, you spill a lot of wine, I hear.
No 456
By “both” I was referring to Hillary and Barack. Excuse the poor phrasing.
Harryd’H has joined the obama pedants.
Lfie moves on.
No 457
This myth propagated by Obama apologists that he somehow has “vision” is ridiculous. The policy platform which he espouses is largely similar to Clinton’s. His only drawcard is oratory. Oratory does not beget vision.
I love how all the Conservatives and Right wingers are backing Hillary.
Barack must be good.
Go you good thing.
Oh EC,
My ultimate Obama Karaoke Hit
Red Red Whine.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ysxw7EON5xc
We will wait and see, but he did not support the Iraq War and he does not like lobbyists, and lobbyists are a significant problem. In Australia lobbyists especially those from rich companies get heard the most, Coal and Motor Industry and the AMA along with Farmers Federation…
Exactly Harry H. They want a Clinton, actually someone whose husband did nothing last time.
#463 – HarryH [I love how all the Conservatives and Right wingers are backing Hillary] – just to prove you are wrong, again, i am backing Hillary and not a Conservative and Right winger.
Finns
you are excepted of course.
in your case he was just born with the wrong anatomy.
#464 – GG, love this one myself for Hill:
Wine, Woman and Song
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=jYdnLMPqLwk
GG
#443
“There is also the win today by Hillary which switches the momentum in terms of populist support.”
I agree and the voter numbers turning out in Penns. support your view
CNN election Centre shows 99% of the vote counted
Clinton 1,258,245 votes 54.7%
Obama 1,042,297 votes 45.3%
Margin between the two 9.4%
The total vote is 2,300,542.
This is 38,803 more than counted when I did my #272 at 3.23PM.
However the %’s of 54.7% and 45.3% are still precisely per my #272
and the difference between the 2 Candidates is still 9.4%
Whilst my #272 blog was precisely correct and the %’s are still unchanged,
you will note the headline % showing against Candidate shows:
Hillary 55% and Obama 45% which was precisely what I said first post in #261
which suggests CNN election site rounds. (but allows you to calc. to 1 decimal)
edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
Where have all Obamas gone
Long time blogging
Where have all Obamas gone
Long time ago.
Where have all Obamas gone,
Gone to blogging everyone
Oh, when will they ever learn
When will they ever learn.
GG, try this one for size and elegant:
Marlene Dietrich – Where Have All The Flowers Gone?
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=aKjF3GPp4X4
Welcome back Generic Person
Last time you were here late at night we debated philosphy and of course disagreed , but alas within 24 hours one of those dreamers the Obamabots went to far with you
In the meantime the A and B team here have pierced their empty dream somewhat and your contribution certainly will give them cheer
Glen also is back questioning the Obamabots faith that this Pollie Obama is somehow always telling the truth even when it costs him Obama votes.
Any questioning of this dream I should warn you is simply rebuted on the argument “thats old style politics” , Obama is for the ‘new style politics”
Finns @ 469,
What a great get.
The most precocious 14 year olds ever. How sweet the harmonies?
Thank you.
While we’re in lyric mode, here’s MoDo’s effort:
Before they devour themselves once more, perhaps the Democrats will take a cue from Dr. Seuss’s “Marvin K. Mooney Will You Please Go Now!” (The writer once mischievously redid it for his friend Art Buchwald as “Richard M. Nixon Will You Please Go Now!”) They could sing:
“The time has come. The time has come. The time is now. Just go. … I don’t care how. You can go by foot. You can go by cow. Hillary R. Clinton, will you please go now! You can go on skates. You can go on skis. … You can go in an old blue shoe.
Just go, go, GO!”
Bush’s approval rating is 30.8%. No suprises there other than the fact that he has a higher approval rating than Congress at 22%.
And which party controls Congress???
Which is why the calls for change will have real resonance in November.
Last week Obama was quoted as making a speech which was elitist, i would call it a speech which was quoted exactly what happens to people when the economies and politicians do nothing for them- they blame others like people who are different for taking their jobs, turn to drugs and buy a few guns.. It was this kind of politic which made Hanson popular and Hitler… Do nothing for the lost in economies and you get rednecks…
Breaking news!!
Mugabe beats both Hillary and Obama. His party wins first recount.
Zimbabwe’s ruling party has been confirmed as the winner of the first of 23 constituencies to complete a recount of votes after March’s election.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7362278.stm
Furthermore, the President election will be recount, recount and recount until he is ahead. Now that is what Hillary should have done with the earlier primaries.
KR,
You have obviously been on duty (cheers to you).
Howard the Duck is the antidote for tomorrow night.
Ferny Glover no matter who wins the Democrat nomination will win in November.
People quite simply have had enough of a party doing nothing for them, especially when it comes to the economy.
Pity their is no oil in Zimbabwe.
Pity about Mbeki as well, how he sleeps at night i do not know.
Thanks for posting your figures and source Ron.
I’m using the Department of State figures.
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
Unofficial Returns
*** 9,177 out of 9,263 Districts (99.07%) Reporting Statewide ***
Obama 1,041,136 45.8%
Clinton 1,234,547 54.3%
(Percentages total 100.1% due to rounding)
Margin to Clinton 8.5%
There’s obviously a discrepancy between the DOS site and CNN.
are we there yet?
Further to #482 I should add that by my calculations, Clinton’s percentage should have been rounded to 54.2%.
There is a Daily Kos thread discussing the disparate figures being reported here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/23/3948/73381/0/501375
Nup Jen
And now we have another 2 weeks of humbug and shenanigans before NC and Indiana
#483 Yes jen,
When I was young and twenty,
They brought me the bottles plenty
Now they’ve changed their tune
They bring them bottles empty
Come diddle oh day, oh diddle, lie o day.
Oh that I was where I would be
Then I would be where I am not
Here I am where I must be
Go where I would, I can not
Come diddle oh day, oh diddle, lie o day.
Oklahoma “Gov. Brad Henry, who said earlier he would not endorse a Democratic presidential candidate until this summer’s national convention, announced this morning he is supporting Barack Obama.”
http://newsok.com/article/3233776/1208941411
480
Well Marky….all this disapproval – of the Bush GOP and of the Dem Congress – feeds into the narrative that the populace wants real change. MacCain is Bush III and Hillary is Bill II. It’s the old order continued. Kinda like the endless night of the zombies.
Cos the old order is dead. And the new one needs a new generation of leader. All that’s been missing is for that leader to emerge. That’s why Obama is the most electable candidate this year – bar none.
Dyno #446 (plus Pancho & Al)
Dyno missed your post scolling back. There some strong arguments you amke for SD’s sticking with the delegate leader & talking about their re election
BUT some of those SD’s endorsing Obama are in States Hillary won , so how do they explain that in their re-election also. The whole ‘contest’ has become a double edged sword for most SD’s and operatives with no clear answer out.
can I suggest (& appologys for not answering Pancho & AL earlier asking me) three chances for Hillary to win (& Swing Lowe do not think Indiana affects)
1/ If Obama makes a further Goldengate or Pastor ‘gaffe’ , he IS finished , so because Hillary has decisively won Penns. Obama now is on probation.
2/ If Obama does not , he will go to the convention in my opinion with a delegate lead. The current 307 uncommitted delegates can give Hillary the nomieeship on their own and none of the SD’s who’ve endorsed either are affected by this.
The reason ? the Polls do show now she is more electable in the swing States
3/ Self survival of all SD’s (Pollies) both camps WILL tell them their electorate is going to find out how you voted. If you were the SD Pollie and Candidate A has a 2% delegate lead & 1.5% popular vote lead & a 40% chance vs Candidate B of winning POTUS vs Candidate B is more electable & has a 60% chance vs Candidate A , the SD Pollie will consider if I pick Candidate A who lost & gave McCain POTUS what will my home voters think. No problem they’ll say perhaps
So as a SD Pollie you want to be sure as you can of being right. is 40%
What a great segue Finn,
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Apr23.html
Incidentally, Bush holds the record for the highest disapproval rating in the 70 odd years Gallup has been measuring it.
To win the booby prize he pipped the previous record holder – one Bill Clinton.
Spot on Ferny. Time for a new generation and a person to make you feel interested in politics again unlike all the corporate run leaders we have had in recent years.
Further to the continual drip of SDs, this from Ben Smith:
‘”Mr. Super,” a DNC member and superdelegate who keeps a blog on the primary process, just posted on the debate raging among them:
“I’m watching the numbers roll in after Senator Clinton’s 10-point win. I’ve spoken to one network and one newspaper. Some rumors going around about some major Superdelegate shifts on Wednesday morning — that would be something if it were true, wouldn’t it? (It’s probably not true).
There is a lot of debate going on over on private DNC member listservs tonight. The main issue is a) do we make our leanings known now or b) do we wait until all of the states have had an opportunity to vote?
As of this writing, there is not a consensus.”
#493, we still got two weeks to go to Indiana Jones. So relax Amigo, stop the chinese water torture. tonight the night for wine, woman and song.
For all this Hillary talk about obliterating Iran.
Can’t the US just say f it lets go in and liberate Zimbabwe i mean these people don’t want Mugabe he lost the election and he’s still in power.
Zimbabwe is the best case today for regime change. If the UN had any balls they’d go in now and remove Robert ‘Adolf’ Mugabe!
Finns,
We’re doing the Democratic Limbo here.
But, no one knows how low Obama can go.
Glen, they probably just about could if they hadn’t lost their moral authority with…what was that disaster again?
What’s the odds of Edwards coming out of the closet (politically speaking) before NC?
Btw, not for me Dionysus. Nose still to the grindstone, so the odd dissection’s keeping me amused.
488
Ferny Grover
If I may, Ferny, I’d correct that from Hillary is Bill mkII to:
Hillary is Lieberman in a skirt.
After that shocking performance, a cover version of ‘Bomb,bomb Iran’ that she did yesterday, she’s really soiled her nest.
493
Pancho
You’d have to feel for them eh? I mean, what a choice! LOL
But all moving to one side of the ship before the finish line is a sunk metaphor, and so would they be.
GG & jen – This is what the world needs now:
Peace Like A River (Paul Simon), my all time fav.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=f1C-bqjEsVw
Ferny @ 476,
Another conclusion to be drawn from those figures is that the Dems don’t have the POTUS contest in the bag yet.
Are the Dems clear favourites for POTUS? Yes.
Are the Dems certainties? Of course not, the betting markets are telling you that, and so is Congress’s abysmal approval rating. And even the dimmest voter can tell that McCain, for all his faults, is no GW Bush.
Yep KR. Her disapproval ratings are already at dizzy heights and I think that performance will add steroids to the upward momentum.
Consequently her chances are heading in a somewhat contrary direction with equal speed.
You hepcat Finns. Linking us to college-rock? Next things you’ll be drinking the Kool-aid of Obama!
A wise note of caution there Dyno. My take would be that a Hillary nomination leaves the Dems very vulnerable in light of her own extraordinarily high – and the Dem Congress’ – disapproval ratings.
Callum
#484
Both of your sources ‘Dept of State’ and ‘dailykos’ you should dump.
The figures in your sources is what 3 of my sites had at 4.00PM – 6 hrs ago
They are both missing outer Counties which 95% voted Hillary , which is why
you said Callum #308
Ron @ 300, ‘you continue to prove yourself a fool ‘ and
Callum #378 ‘I don’t care if you saw it on CNN and Fox. As I said later they share your innumeracy’
The figures I quoted in my blogs were at the CNN election site but are ALSO the precise figures to the last voter showing on the ABC site and the Democrats own site. Furthermore the final figures I quoted in #470 are the same on all 3.
These 3 sites & others I use are credible & you may consider switching to one
#505 Amigo, a great song is a great song is a great song, be it sung by BB, Gen X, Y or Z
Have to side with you, Ron, on the figures.
My preferred site (NY Times, which updates very regularly) has the same as you have.
When peace like a river attendeth my way,
Or troubles like sea billows roll,
Whatever my lot, Thou hast taught me to say -
‘It is well, it is well with my soul’
Paul Simon, it aint.
#510 FG, please please please dont start.
The other day, certain posters, (guess who?) got very upset when I said Greenspan’s memory will one day be reviled.
Oh, no, they cried, and yet every day, in the world’s financial press, people are combing over how we arrived where we are now. In today’s Financial Times, after a long discussion about various dodgey practices, it concludes:
How did this come to pass? Christopher Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics blames the Federal Reserve and other regulators. “The Fed knows that banking is a commodity business, and by allowing the banks to migrate off the exchanges they allowed them to enhance their profitability. The Fed people knew risk management was a problem, but they thought they could deal with all the risks created by the over-the-counter model through the Basel 2 rules.”
I guess not.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9e589670-1004-11dd-8871-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
And in there you can put Alan Greenspan’s name, as he sat there right through the period and up till it all went pear shaped.
But no, our resident authorities can tell us why this isn’t true. Or can they?
By the way:
Basel II
Generally speaking, these rules mean that the greater risk to which the bank is exposed, the greater the amount of capital the bank needs to hold to safeguard its solvency and overall economic stability. (yep, that’s been applied! NOT!!!)
And OTC, or over the counter, refers to derivatives that are traded between counterparties and not through an exchange (ie where everyone can see what’s priced and how).
So how about that McCain eh?
Anybody heard if he’s doing anything?
Well he’s not releasing his medical records, but I hear Cindy is releasing some sort of memoir in September.
511
Oh c’mon Finns, an old hymn every now and then is good for the soul. Your girl would know that one by heart.
If I was American I would be voting in the following order:
1. Obama
2. McCain
3. Anybody else
4. Clinton
She really is the most coniving, bitter, pathetic little fraud I have ever seen.
Glen,
I heard he done something.
But there was a denial.
How do you know he’s alive?
There is supposedly a primary in Guam on May 3rd. Not sure why this isn’t on the CNN site, anyway it is a caucus and 9 delegates are allocated to Guam.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/05/onward_to_guam.html
NYT has Guam on May 3 as well.
While the Dems may be making life easier for McCain come November…he’s not getting a word in the media really…me thinks he ought to name his Veep!
Just my thinking but Obama should have won it, or not lost by so much at all.
.
Obama is the frontrunner, has been for months, in many circles the de facto nominee, all this time. He has had close to two months since he won 11 straight contests by an average of around 20-30 pts and has broken every single fundraising record there is.
.
Ever since Iowa he has gotten the best media coverage and treatment of any politician for years. Every day and night pundits in the media have annointed him the winner, explained how it’s impossible for Hillary to win, have implored her to drop out, and generally praised Obama as the Second Coming of FDR & JFK combined. Even high-profile Senators Dodd and Leahy, Speaker Pelosi, and Howard Dean amongst many others, have pretty much proclaimed Obama the winner. and to top it off, we keep hearing how he has gained, and gained, and gained, super-delegate endorsements in a slow, steady, continuous stream.
.
He gave a speech that was praised by the media as a mixture of Lincoln at Gettysburg and King at the Lincoln Memorial with a good measure of Christ at the Mount of the Beatitudes thrown in.
.
and he has a bottomless pit of gold in his campaign treasury, the incredible blitzkrieg of his radio, newspaper and TV campaign, (his ads apparently saturated around 3 or 4 to 1 for weeks, my heart goes out to Pennsylvania) and his blow-out fund-raising capacity – outspending Hillary two, three or five to one (depending who you read) — and his personal face-to-face campaign across the state, by bus, train and with sell-out venues, and his large ground-troop organisation, including a massive – and very successful – new voter registration drive, negative campaign tricks like the Harry & Louise ads – Add to that, Hillary has been beaten constantly with such incredibly high negatives throughout the campaign, negatives that scream she can never be elected.
.
But he still can’t put her away? With all those odds in his favour, Obama should have won by 5-10 points, not losing by 5-10.
.
If Obama can’t win this blue-leaning swing state against a weakened, broke, high-negative, unanimously-hated Clinton, who bathes in babies blood etc – what does it say about his electability in November?
.
Stubborn lot, some voters.
.
Just guessing, but like the Comedy Central guys were spoofing the other week on Obama’s Cling-Gate gaffe along the lines of ” Hey? Senator Obama? hate to break it to you, but no President, of either political stripe, in this country has ever been elected since ummm.. maybe 1928, by pissing off the bible-thumping gun-toting small town hick vote. The rest of the country may agree with you 100%, and with a third or more of the country always staying home on election day, the rest may wish passionately that it was THAT specific third of the country which did so … but along with the gun-toting and bible-thumping is religious zeal to wield their right to vote … and on top of that, they have a lot of old folks, and so you then go and tell them you want to *fix* their Social Security?
.
Well, we know he can win caucuses. Shame the General Election isn’t a caucus. My favourite is “Democracy: “Las Vegas Style”. Its hilarious as a way to select a Party candidate and award delegates – truly representative of the ‘popular vote’, and extremely fair. According to Nevada State Party Rules, it can come down to a cut of the cards – highest cards wins the majority delegates
.
QUOTE: In quintessential Nevada style, two caucus races in small northern towns came down to a draw of the cards…….. According to state Democratic Party rules, caucus chair Nancy Downey shuffled a deck of cards. A Clinton backer drew a five. An Obama supporter pulled out a king. The crowd whooped. Obama earned two delegates; Clinton got one.” UNQUOTE
.
Full link here: (Republican caucuses had some funny stories too).
http://www.wtopnews.com/?nid=213&sid=1329634
.
The irony is I think – just off the top of my head, Nevada was the only caucus state Hillary won? LOL
#514 Amigo, Cindy got caught in the Recipegate.
KR,
The problem with Basel II and the like is that it’s very hard, even with the best will in the world, to measure the risk from all the new weird and wonderful financial instruments that are constantly being invented.
Add to that that the people doing the measurement are working for the very banks that are supposedly being regulated, and they don’t all have “the best will in the world”.
Then again if you measure risk in a more prescriptive way (ie how it used to be measured), then people can just “game” the rules anyway.
A lot of this just comes back to what the HIH Royal Commissioner said: “Didn’t anyone sit back and ask themselves ‘is this the right thing to do?’ “
the Finns at 410. I thought you were the Glen of Hillary supporters, but now having read that bittergate will be as important as watergate, I can only say- youre worse
“Do you have Senator McCain’s medical records?”
“Yes, that’s his recent x-rays in the envelope there”.
“But this is just a bag of sawdust!”
“I know.”
“You mean? Good God!”
“Yes. He’s completely stuffed. We had him done by the same old London firm that did Jeremy Bentham.”
“It’s almost lifelike. But….what if he wins?”
“It wasn’t a problem last time.”
Thanks Dyno, CNN is hiding it. The Obama site has a mini-site for the Guamanians. An interesting insight into the issues others are dealing with. The Americans are spending $10 billion there, redeploying their bases from Japan. Lock up your daughters Guam.
http://gu.barackobama.com/page/content/guhome
#524 – are you a Barry Hall come lately?
Rain,
He will certainly be kicking himself about bittergate.
We will never know what would have happened without it, but it certainly seemed like a circuit-breaker for Hillary’s run of “mis-speaks”.
As for the rest of you post, though, surely the fact that Obama is a great fund-raiser, and the media love him, etc, etc, is a good thing?
Ah well Rain, looks like you were wrong after all, and Obama’s gonna be the nominee. Still, good to see you’re still fighting the good fight.
Oh, and a ps for Just my thinking but Obama should have won it, or not lost by so much at all.
If you keep an eye on any of the polling of demographics, you might give yourself a tip-off next time.
pps. Obama will prolly sneak home in NC.
FINNS
We do not wish the OBama supporters here to confuse their demographics of being Obama supporters.
Would the “elitist view Obamabots” enjoy the ‘college-rock’ suffix , perhaps abit hip for them , so ‘college-rock’ may go well with the “core Obama” set ?
Pancho @ 529,
Better known as whistling in the dark
Ron, I know there’s a joke in there somewhere, but am having trouble. Straighten it out for me!
No 530
I think I would supplant “college-rock” with “septic hippy”.
#529 Amigo – finally we have agreement [Obama will prolly sneak home] – yes he’s been sneaking everywhere.
One for the Hill Shills
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=23HfAHSKWlk
‘The Fed people knew risk management was a problem”
First of all thats the whole board
More importantly the Fed Board knew more about the losses than for example
the executive & all line mangaers & all credit managers of Citigroup and Bear Stearns who collectively may have lost 50 billion.
Of course not. You seem to dislike Greenspan and you may be able to demontate a specific decision he made for example one specific rate decrease but have all the economic data available at the time he didand then put it up
The problem is I think as I’ve said ‘cultural’. This unregulated free market psche and can you see Congress putting in the actual required regulation cause I can not
What is Catherine Deveny on about; there is still Andrew Bolt and Janet Albrechtsen; and they are both working hard at filling their roles. Today Janet is worried about the “galloping imperialist judiciary”. I think that means good right wing Australians have to worry about Judges on horses. Who knows?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/lefties-miss-howard/2008/04/22/1208742940794.html
yes Dyno agree
TW,
This is your real feelimg.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlY-JlE5ZCo
My Obamaphile friends, in essennce, the “Wafflegate” is what wrong with Obama. That is why he will never be POTUS. He does not have the “ticker”, he’s a common man that does not have a common touch.
Wilting Over Waffles, By MAUREEN DOWD, NYT, Published: April 23, 2008
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/opinion/23dowd.html?ei=5087&em=&en=83fddc90bd8c3c70&ex=1209096000&pagewanted=print
So…why’s he beating Hillary?
Finns,
The terns have wormed.
No 537
Australians have much to worry about when judges insist on creating laws unto themselves.
#542 – FG: [So…why’s he beating Hillary?]
Abraham Lincoln said: ” You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time”.
Obama cannot fool all the people all the time.
There’s been a lot of fairly (to be honest) incestuous badinage on this site for the last few weeks. What else is there to do when we have no data, no results, no firm facts…except an endlessly repeat of the same circle of arguments. I haven’t posted much because I haven’t had anything much to say. At the risk of sounding superior, I only wish the same injunction applied to some of the regulars.
The problem with Pennsylvania is that it hasn’t changed the game. Hillary hasn’t won the state by enough to make any difference (an outcome that has been predicted by all but the most deluded Clintonistas for weeks). She still needs to win more than 70% of the remaining SDs to get the nomination, but clearly she has won by enough to stave off calls for a concession. No one now is talking about seating Florida and Michigan. She hasn’t won Pennsylvania by a big enough margin to lead in the popular vote. If the SDs did the unthinkable and broke by over 70% to nominate her and pissed upon the African American voters and all the other newly Obama-enthused Dems then, swing state strengths or no swing state strengths, McCain would walk into the White House past the silent witness of voters who don’t vote (the traditional honour guard of idiot American Presidents).
So we are left with a drawn out contest with one obvious winner and one pointless contestant. The only question is when the remaining Sds get the courage to stand up to the Clintons and tell them to take their ball and f*&k off home because, frankly, we’re all tired of playing this silly game. They can both do speaking tours, lobby for obscure Central Asian republics, seperate and live happily ever after…whatever; just leave Americans to focus on one truth at a time – beginning with the fact that the Republicans are arseholes. Greater political sophistication will hopefully follow.
And Hillary has a hard time fooling anybody any of the time.
30 wins out of 44 starts. Not bad for a guy without the common touch.
With 14 wins out of 44 starts, Hillary is obviously more electable.
GP
#533
sometimes you are wicked
FINNS
#527
Not sure Andrew knows the Barry Hall effect you have
GG
did you see my maths teachings today
523
Dyno
That is correct, and precisely why letting the banks and their clones play this game without regulation, knowing what a straight conflict of interest it was, is why the Fed should not have been so keen to let the junkies into the medicine cabinet.
Do you remember, back in the late nineties when Greenspan was lauding Wall Street for being so creative with derivatives and making themsleves rich beyond comprehension, and he maintained that they were ’spreading the risk’ so that it would not be a problem?
I remember the outraged comments from the more judicious at the time who thought he was stark raving mad.
They were, as is now so plainly apparent to anyone but the electively blind, correct. Of course they were then all howled down as lunatics and party poopers. But not now, of course! LOL
GP – Judges can’t create laws. Thats the job of Parliament.
And with our current crop of conservative jurists I wouldn’t be getting too anxious.
PS a question for the Clintonistas: What do you think of Hillary’s “I will obliterate Iran” statement? Do you agree with it? Does it worry you? Or (and Ron, this is for you) is it more or less important than the attitude of Obama’s pastor to the US state or what Obama thinks about people in small towns? (CLUE: He never said nothing about nuking a bowling alley.)
Robert #545
“because I haven’t had anything much to say”
And you have not added to it. All you are saying as an obama supporter is to concede. It will not happen & obviously you have not understood swing states
nor that Obama presently is not electable based on polls. Your say so to the contrary is backed up with nothing but an opinion without any supporting info at all
And you did sound a trifle superior but you may be
And Dyno, the other thing about the Fed under Greenspan: anyone who has read anything about how he operated will know that the procedure was “here’s what the boss thinks” and everyone duly voted accordingly.
Bernanke offered to make a clean break from the villianous little freak’s autocratic control and let there be real discussion…maybe a tad too late for what has surely been the worst mess in the universe to inherit as a central banker! LOL
Anyone see Lateline tonight?
Good interview with Time editor by Leigh Sales, where he told her that Republicans do not like the idea of facing Obama as he messes up all the rules, and Clinton is their preferred opponent.
He was totally sanguine about Obama getting through to the nomination, and reckoned the Supers won’t move until the primaries finish. Unless of course Obama sweeps the next two.
Hillary is in debt, and that’s a problem she’d better fix, but Obama is still ahead and looks able to go the distance.
Hillary bounces back on Deathwatch:
http://www.slate.com/id/2189695/
But they still don’t rate her chances.
KR,
He would say that, wouldn’t he.
DSoTM, GG? no points.
#548 & #552 Kirri
You are seemlessly trying to imply Dyno at #523 agreed with your post at #512
and I do not think he is quite saying that at all.
I can not claim either by the way he agrees with my #536 either or my implicit point that the Lenders themselves may learn more sound credit worthiness standards & criteria in the future
Ron,
I understand swing states. I also understand that primary performances are as useful a predictor or swing state electability as the mating habits of sea cucumbers are of the seduction habits of Young Liberals (though, on reflection, that is a problematic analogy).
What I am saying, in any case, is not dependent on that. Even if Clinton is a better candidate for winning votes in various parts of Ohio and small town Pennsylvania (for example) than Obama this would be rendered pointless if the black inhabitants of Philadelphia and Cincinnati etc don’t vote because a black candidate has been denied candidacy by the intervention of a bunch of unelected party heavies. Karl Rove won the last two elections for the Republicans by activating the base and ignoring what we (in our Australian psephological universe) would describe as the all-important “swingin voters”. What you’re proposing, in the US psephological world of non-compulsorary voting, is a strategy of beating the core of one’s base over the head with a lead pipe in the vain hope of enticing a relatively small number of “swingers” from swing states to vote.
TW @556,
I luv it when you talk dirty.
No idea.
Sums up the current political situation in the US, absolutely hilarious!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=5Mc3GQmGGms
555
Greeensborough Growler
No: he did say that, didn’t he?
LOL, GG.
(D)ark (S)ide (o)f (T)he (M)oon.
Too obvious.
KR,
And while we are in violent agreement, your point is……..
TW,
You are a wag.
Cheers.
#558
Robert
and the reverse applies equally.
Women. How many women do you think will be p….d off in the Democrat ranks let alone the Independent females that hteir trail blazer got beaten by another man
The Hispanics. Even Gore & Kerry had some of these , Obama has not.
The Hispanic vote is a problem for Obama for many reasons , one they are strong Hillary
The working class in Ohio. Hillary has , Obama lost. 1960 is the only time the winner of Ohio won but lost the election
Why did Gore & Kerry lose , partly due to th above. Obama is worse placed than either with females , hispanics & working class & Jews. Also jews ?
(forget Florida with Obama)
This is a pracy only.
Your points contrary demonstrate what a mess the Party has got itself into
Robert
I did rely but I think the j.e.w.i.s.h. word put it into moderation
It makes sense to me. People who want change will be more motivated to get out and vote. Those happy with the status quo might be more likely to sit at home. AND those Republican voters who were turned off by Bush may just feel no motivation to get out and vote.
Obama -v- Republicans maybe like Rudd in that Howard couldn’t work out how to fight him and stuck with his old game plan.
McCain strikes as being the same as Bush – a slow thinking dolt easily lead astray and confused.
——————–
Albrechtson no doubt thinks the rights of individual Australians should be decided by the whim of Liberal politicians and, not by the rule law existing to protect the rights of citizens. How she must pine for Calvin’s Geneva. What fun it would be sititing on the council deciding what punishment to dish out for public singing.
Robert #550 says What do you think of Hillary’s “I will obliterate Iran” statement? Do you agree with it? Does it worry you? Or (and Ron, this is for you)
That is a reasonable question and there are arguments both ways but with reluctance I favour it as a premptive threat as it applies equally as if Iran increases its missile range to Italy , France , England etc and in reverse range area tells those despotic oilsheiks they are OK so keep sending the oil. That i assume is the overall policy objective (the political one is keeping Hillarys j.e.w.
voters still on side)
Damn, i was going to bed but i think i’ll wait for Ron’s reply to Robert.
Ah thanx Ron for the quickness
Good post Ron @ 568.
Now time to prepare for the next battles.
Cheers,
Good night
Ron
your analogy that women would be pissed off would apply IF Hillary won and had it taken off her.
the difference is she cannot win.
do you understand this difference in the scenario.
if she loses…she loses. same as any race.
to make it clearer
If Obama wins but Supers overrule = Disaster for the Dems.
If Hillary wins but Supers overrule = Disaster for the Dems.
And the simple Math is in a delegate race for the nomination, Obama has won.
“The first panacea of a mismanaged government is inflation of the currency. The second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring more permanent ruin.”
Hemingway
…maybe Hillary is just going with the flow.
Robert
I’ve put up views on both Hillary vs Obama AND the Iran threat above
which was
IF, i repeat IF Iran put nuclear missiles in the air at Israel then the US would respond with nuclear missiles on Iran
Its late I’m off , but should you have the opportunity to reply I’ll look at it and reply with my thoughts
good nite all
One more super for Obama.
Gov. Brad Henry, who said earlier he would not endorse a Democratic presidential candidate until this summer’s national convention, announced this morning he is supporting Barack Obama.
http://newsok.com/article/3233776/1208941411
560
Glen Says:
Thanks Glen. I particularly liked the listing of the supporter factions of the Democrats and Republicans….
Terrible stereotyping of Pennsylvanians. Someone needs to show them how to build a tinny wall. All that rice beer makes me feel sick.
Hillary adds another super keeping that background race to +24 for Hillary.
http://www.nashvillepost.com/news/2008/4/23/tanner_endorses_hillary
Here it is for you folks. Obama has turned out more voters than ever in the Midwest, South and West ESPECIALLY Colorado. You’ll also note that Bill won in ‘92 by taking several Midwest states. I see that as being more plausible for Obama as he has already taken most of them. But even better! He’ll also get some of the South.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1992
http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/mapApp.do?drillLevel=US&stateName=&cand_id=P80003338&searchType=&searchSQLType=&searchKeyword=
You’ll notice that Obama has raised much more money in every state with the exceptions of Florida, Texas, and New York. And Texas is very close.
Trust me Florida ain’t all its cracked up to be. They haven’t delivered for a Democrat since 1996. Also, they voted for old Georgie the 1st in ‘92 and he still lost. They can’t be counted on.
If she is the nominee it will have to be by super del. anointment. If that happens, you can kiss the South and Midwest goodbye.
You’ll notice that Carter only barely pulled that kind of victory off because he was a Southerner and he took the entire South. Hillary won’t take any folks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._presidential_election,_1976
Ford, a very similar candidate to John McCain took the entire West. Hillary only plays in a few big states. Obama plays all over the map AND in the big states.
Why do you think Limbaugh and Hannity have been encouraging Republicans to vote for Hillary?
They know she will only polarize voters on the right and left. They FEAR Obama.
And remember folks, it is the South and West and Midwest that have grown since Carter’s narrow win.
Just sayin’…
Hi William, Can we have a Guam thread?
9 delegates are 9 delegates!
Current Department of State figures
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
9,219 out of 9,264 Districts (99.51%) Reporting Statewide
My calculated percentages to 3 decimal places
Obama 1,030,703 45.427%
Clinton 1,238,232 54.573%
Margin: 9.146%
Rounding to 1 decimal place: 9.1%
It is *not* acceptable to round Obama’s percentage to 45%, Clinton’s to 55% and then call the margin 10%.
Morning all, worrying time for the Obama team. We could have told them that:
Reagan’s Democrats = Howard’s Battlers = Rudd’s Working Families.
“Wafflegate” and “Bitterdate” show clearly Obama is having problem connecting to this key demographic. It is even worse for him, the perception is that Obama looks down on them. This is his key weakness. You got to win over and understand this demographic. It is rather odd that his “brilliant” team has completely missed this and only now “immediately began studying the results”. Should have started with Ohio.
see: ( http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=843&cp=6#comment-146401 )
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/us/politics/23obama.html?_r=2&ref=politics&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Tom Hayden on Hillary pretty much somes it up for me:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080505/hayden
Thanks Ron, wherever you are this morning, for answering my question last night re Iran. I went to bed before you did. However, I find your answer to be somewhat ingenuous. Your argument is that all Hillary is saying is that if they drop a nuke on Israel she’ll do the same and that is reasonable. What you seem to have forgotten is that Iran HAS NO NUKES and is nowhere near (despite recent US hysteria) to getting them.
So what we have is gross sabre rattling to appeal to the basest “Bomb, Bomb, Iran” demographic – sabre rattling with a nuclear sabre to boot. And some people still want to believe she’s somehow a “progressive” candidate.
GP Says:
A bill of rights does not give Judges the right to create laws, it does give them the right to reject a few, it changes the balance of power between the two branches, giving more power to tradition. I don’t think it is the right way to go.
Howard’s miss management of human rights was dealt with by 50% of the population getting sick of it and kicking him out. If the problems had been with the judges things would have been harder to fix.
582 Robert
Hillary is as progressive as an overweight, three-legged turtle on a heavily waxed descending escalator. In fact, she seems in an awful hurry to curry favour with society’s lowest common denominators. She peddles spin and fear like the best Republican. Obama is better but, seriously, when was the last time a truly progressive leader emerged in the USA – or in Australia for that matter?
“Our social indictment has broadened. Where once we exposed the quality of life in the world of the South and the ghettos, now we condemn the quality of work in factories and corporations. Where once we assaulted the exploitation of man, now we decry the destruction of nature as well. How much longer can we let corporations run us?”
No it’s not Obama – it’s Hillary in the 60’s.
As a wise man once asked – Is it worth it if you gain the whole world but lose your soul to do it?
The source of the above quote is below:
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080505/hayden
By the way, I think the author’s wife may be Jen’s soulmate!
“My wife Barbara has begun yelling at the television set every time she hears Hillary Clinton. This is abnormal behavior, since Barbara is a meditative practitioner of everything peaceful and organic, and is inspired by Barack Obama’s transformational appeal.
For Barbara, Hillary has become the screech on the blackboard. From First Lady to Lady Macbeth.”
General Petraeus flies to Washington.
General Petraeus tells Washington what Washington wants to hear.
General Petraeus gets promoted.
To fully understand why:
http://fredoneverything.net/TestifyingGenerals.shtml
FG: I would have voted for Jefferson, Lincoln or FDR – but even in those cases I would have hoped for a 3rd party alternative.
588 RB
A powerful 3-some there RB. Jefferson the dreamer (all those who have advanced humanity have dared to dream that we could do it better); Lincoln the courageous, inspiring humanist (but we was GOP so it doesn’t count); and FDR, my personal political hero – that class traitor, born to privilege yet committed to a better world for the poor. And didn’t he cop a bagging from the Establishment and Industry. All the big money deserted him – and he kept winning regardless – salient reminder that doing what is right is what real leaders do, and it is leaders who change the world.
I mentioned George Eliot and ‘Middlemarch’ yesterday. He also said that (and I’m repeating Don Watson here) it was absurd to think that people could arrive at a decent concept of justice without having lived ‘a life vivid and intense enough to have created a wide fellow feeling with all that is human’.
For FDR, it was the permanent paralysis of his legs in 1921 (apparently caused by Guillain-Barré syndrome) that gave him that ‘wide fellow feeling’.
Hillary’s New Inevitability
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-loewe/hillarys-new-inevitabilit_b_98145.html
590 – Great article TW.
A little quote.
“Since Franklin Roosevelt, no Democrat has won the White House without the loyal support of the African American community. But having watched the potential first black president denied his rightful chance to compete by party insiders may sever that loyalty permanently. The activist base of the Democratic party, which has been at the core of the remaking of the political landscape, will likely also be rocked by a Hillary coup. If the superdelegates nominate Hillary Clinton, it will rip the base of the party in half and destroy the extraordinary progress that the Obama movement – and the Dean movement before it – have produced. Even if she is more electable before their decision, she will be unelectable after.”
that article sums it up perfectly- Hillary cant get the numbers, and for the SDs to overturn this would be catastrophic
If she were more electable she wouldn’t be in this position.
And let’s examine this notion doing the rounds that Obama’s inability to deliver the ‘knockout punch’ to Hillary is somehow proof that he can’t win.
It’s like telling the winner of a points decision in boxing that the loser has been declared the winner because he wasn’t rendered unconcious.
Toby @578, I think what is interesting from the article on the 1976 election is how much the polls swung from after the conventions to the election – Carter with a 30% lead to even at the election.
It illustrates how pointless it is in using Obama vs McCain or Hillary vs McCain ie electability as the determinant for the current democratic selection. Once the selection is made, the dynamics and the arguments will be totally different from those being discussed now.
dgob et al
She cannot win, simple numerical fact. The supers cannot be ‘bought’ to sell out the voters, and she’s only hanging on in desperation that Obama falls under a political bus.
She’s not a politician, she’s a pitbull.
Maybe Obama should do what she does. He should kick her in the nuts! LOL
Small rant before I go:
Flammin’ Torch-a!
It’s against the Geneva Conventions!
If I have to hear anything more about the flammin’ Olympic Torch and the bloody CHinese ‘flame attendants’ (FFS!!!!!!) I’m going to complain to the World Court that my human rights have been abused.
All this for a steriod fest and endlessly nauseating jingoism.
Aaaaaaaaaaargh!
dogb @ 591 on The Huffington Post article:
What extraordinary progress did the Dean movement make – except shifting the Democratic party dangerously to the left? The Obama movement, whilst not as dangerous, is still primarily composed of urban elites, blacks, people 18-39 and people earning over $150K. Clinton wins every other demographic in most states.
Second, nominating Hillary Clinton will not rip the base of the party in half. I don’t believe blacks and urban elites will not vote for Hillary in November. All she has to do is run some ads showing Bill Clinton being described as the first “black” president and reminding people how good things were in the 1990s when there was a Clinton in the White House.
Third, someone earlier mentioned Clinton couldn’t win in the West/Mid-West (with the implication being that Obama could). They also said Flordia didn’t matter. What rubbish! Clinton is currently leading McCain in CA, WA, OR, NV and HI (Western states). She’s also leading in MN, MO, WV, OH, IL and PA, whilst she’s tying McCain in WI (the mid-west). She’s also doing better than Obama vs McCain in MO, WV, KY, OH and PA. And it’s worth noting that the last time a Democrat won the White House, they carried FL (1996), but that if FL had voted for the Dems in 2000 or 2004, they would have won the White House both of those times.
It’s truly an appalling spectacle KR. If ever you wanted an image that the games are taking place in a totalitarian state, then the sight of these ‘torch attendants’ sure fits the bill. I don’t understand why members of the Chinese secret police (the attendants) were even allowed to take part in the torch relay in Australia. They have no authority to take any ‘police’ action on Australian soil and their presence is surely inappropriate in a democracy. So why let them run??
Anyways…wrong thread for that I guess.
Callum
#580
supplies the latest figures from his State government site, always quick Govt.
Those figures are well behind my #507 blog of CNN , ABC & Democrats own site
posted 10 hours ago.
And Callum’s earlier #484 figures last night were then 6 later than my afternoon blog figures. Guess the Government’s computers will catch up sometime.
current figures are
Hillary 1,260,208 54.7% Obama 1,045,444 45.3%
Difference to one decimal 9.4%
(if you round their %’s to no decimals , Hillary 55% to Obama 45%
which CNN have done & mathematically hillary can claim a double digit win
and won’t the pedant mathemticans love that recalculating decimals
Swing Lowe
#597
You probably do not wish to get a compliment from the barabarian Ron , but
it was an excellent sound post with which i entirely agree
To add to your comments on Florida , a blogger earlier said
“Trust me Florida ain’t all its cracked up to be. They haven’t delivered for a Democrat since 1996″
Well the point is that Gore lost Florida in 2000 only by a few thousand “chad” votes. Secondly 97,000 Democrat votes were lost to Gore by those voting for the ‘left’ Nader. No Nader , Gore wins Florida. gore wins Florida , and Gore
wins POTUS. (no George Bush)
So Florida is winnable with the right Candidate. Kerry 2004 lost by 5 points wrong Candidate. Obama will get thrashed in Llorida whereas Hillary has a good chance to win it poll stats . ?
Ron, Callum, I think you guys must have missed the memo from William at 406.
So SL, all she has to do is turn on the Clinton charm after she’s destroyed their candidate and they’ll all come flooding back? That sounds like hope to me. You cannot believe that Clinton’s strategy will not have repercussions if she gets the nomination because of it.
Gallup poll and elitists, below. Seems Hillary is (by a slight measure) the one outta touch. But no one is running away with the numbers here despite beatups:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106744/Only-26-Say-Obama-Looks-Down-
Americans.aspx
I understand that your enemy’s enemy is your friend, but Clinton further in bed with FOX? Short term turncoat behaviour from the campaign of a leader of a party who has been treated despicably over years. Scabbish even:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0408/McAuliffe_praises_fair_and_balanced_Fox.html
RCP Indiana figures:
RCP Average 03/31 – 04/16 – 46.0 43.8 Clinton +2.2
Downs Center 04/14 – 04/16 578 LV 45 50 Obama +5.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 04/10 – 04/14 554 LV 35 40 Obama +5.0
SurveyUSA 04/11 – 04/13 571 LV 55 39 Clinton +16.0
Research 2000 03/31 – 04/02 400 LV 49 46 Clinton +3.0
What’s interesting is that the only thing keeping the average tilted to Clinton is the SurveyUSA poll – which appears to be an outlier.
G’day Bludgers,
Wed April 23: Chronic Ankle-osing Clintonitis:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AuHievJKjb.yqQ92WQlr6MY0vTYC
Swing Lowe – Dean has reorganised the party machine in his capacity as DNC Chair, and diverted resources from its traditional powerbases and towards a 50 state strategy. He has re-energised the Party in States where it has been dormant for decades, and provided much of the underpinning for the Party to be able to cope with the extraordinary turnout it has has this Primary season. He has also reclaimed the soul of the Party from micro-target hawk bloodsuckers in the DLC.
597 – Swing Lowe
IMHO the progress Obama has made is not in providing new democrat voters, it’s in mobilising the base. The youth vote is notorious unreliable – until now. The black vote is now sewn up and mobilised in a way that we have never seen before and I respectfully disagree with you on their reaction to a Hillary nomination.
IMHO it’s the Hillary supporters (and some disillusioned Republicans) who are more likely to switch loyalties. There would be no bloodletting, no perception of going against the people’s will.
And besides Hillary is right in one respect, she has toughened Obama up. Imagine what will happen when the blowtorch of his machine is directed on the much softer target of McCain.
Robert
#582
You are so frustrating to debate against. You like Obama have this pleasing to see eloquent literary style that for a layman I can not avoid absorbing and only afte that can I weed through what you actually said to find the nub of your argument
You ask me a question #550 about Hillary premptive threat to iran that IF Iran puts nuclear missiles in the air against Israel , Hillary will launch nuclear missiles against Iran.
I answer it in #568 , but now you say
“What you seem to have forgotten is that Iran HAS NO NUKES and is nowhere near (despite recent US hysteria) to getting them.”
Well if they have no nukes , then surely your question is redundant. If you were asking theoretically on politics I answered that , politically her statement further shored up her j.e.w.i.s.h. voters in the US and for Penns. shored up the conservative , yes conservative wing of Democrats including many of the working class voters. clever politics I’d suggest. If you asking me theoretically on Public Policy I said its premptive threat diplomacy…IF Iran gets longer range they can strike Italy , if more range France , if more range England ….so she drew a policy line at the Israel border rather than wait till then and of course for short range missiles she’s saying to the greedy oil sheiks hillary will protect you so keep the oil coming. So reluctantly I support her comment , its real life potential threats whilsts others can think of peaceful theories in the luxury of freedom far away often won or retained by those very naty premptive sort of words
Now if you have an argument on this , do not go to bed before launching
perhaps GG ,
these politcal & stat based blog giving a laymans education standard to Obamabots and Obama supporters rarely with a reply should be replaced by me by your more piecing & humourous one liners
First, blacks have voted for the Democrats 90/10 since the 1960s. So Obama doesn’t bring anything else to the table here. The minority group that has been variable in support of the Democrats has been Hispanice. The GOP has calculated that they should win most elections if they get 40% of the Hispanic vote (which they did in 2000 and 2004). However, their stance on “the Wall” in 2006 meant they got something like 20% of the Hispanic vote – which helped the Dems take back both the House and the Senate.
Second, some Hillary supporters (not all), primarily white men and rural/conservative Dems are the people most likely to switch to McCain. After all, the GOP’s main demographics are white men (they voted for Dole vs Clinton) and rural voters. Hillary is currently winning them in the primary fight – if they’re not going to vote for Obama when Hillary is the opponent, why would they vote for Obama when McCain (who is probably much more in tune with them) is the opponent?
Third, McCain is no soft target. Remember, he’s been through umpteen Senate campaigns, he felt the full force of the Bush/Rove blowtorch in 2000 and he’s come from well back in the pack to beat off at least 3 serious contenders for the GOP nomination (Giuliani, Huckabee and Romney). He’s battle ready – as are both of the Dems now (although Clinton spent 8+ full years in the public eye when Obama was a nobody).
Finally, the so-called “micro-target hawk bloodsuckers in the DLC” were the very people who delivered the White House back to the Democrats after three consecutive GOP landslides (1980, 1984, 1988). Past members of the DLC include both Bill Clinton and Al Gore. The DLC are the only reason why one or both Democratic candidates are now competitive in states like Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky, West Virginia and (probably) Ohio (all of which were won by ex-DLC Bill Clinton but never since). So don’t bash the DLC – without them, the Democrats would probably be in a similar state to the Republicans in the 1940s – a useful opposition but nothing more…
FINNS #581
“His Obama’s) strategists immediately began studying the results — and intended to interview voters in a post-mortem — to see what kept them
(mainly the working class) from supporting Mr. Obama.” NY Times.
FINNS , as elitists neither Obama or his strategists ‘get it’ and they wonder why.
I reckon after they finish thos post interviews , they are going to scratch their heads and still not understand why they did not vote for him. At least Hillary understands why the hip rock college educated vote for Obama’s dream
Ferny
“As a wise man once asked – Is it worth it if you gain the whole world but lose your soul to do it? ”
and the result of that philosophy was electing George Bush
SL, do you have a source for this GOP stuff about needing to win 40% of the hispanic vote?
Ron, I’m not sure the author of that philosophy (Jesus) would see the link between his words and the election of Bush – and nor can I.
Is this a precursor to an endorsement by Edwards?
“The Obama campaign today announced the endorsement of 49 prominent supporters of John Edwards – including Ed Turlington, Edwards’ former National General Chairman. These North Carolina leaders – ranging from Members of Congress to a former Chief Justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court to former law partners and longtime friends of John Edwards – cite Barack Obama’s commitment to fighting for change on behalf of working Americans and taking on the special interests in Washington.
“Barack Obama and John Edwards share a commitment to taking on special interests and standing up for regular Americans. Along with Edwards supporters from across the state, I am honored to join Senator Obama’s movement for change,” said Turlington. “As president, he will bring together Democrats, Republicans and Independents behind an agenda of change. From ending the war in Iraq to confronting the scourge of poverty to making health care affordable for every single American, Barack Obama will bring our country the change we need.”
Link FG?
Sorry Dogb: It’s a press release by the Obama camp:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/zachedwards/gGCVsd
Still in Groundhog Day. Ah, well, I had a great time checking the posts on the phone yesterday. An exciting day. Thanks for your cheerios KR & EC.
TW @ 590 – A good article that puts it all in perspective.
The key outcome of PA is that Clinton has failed to get herself back into a position where she can win. Also there is no way sufficient SD’s will migrate to her. There’s no reason to (she is now terminally behind on pledged delegates and the popular vote) – and every reason not to (installing her over the leading candidate will make a Dem loss much more likely in the general election).
Ferny @ 593 [this notion doing the rounds that Obama’s inability to deliver the ‘knockout punch’ to Hillary is somehow proof that he can’t win.]
This latest Hillarian line is Hillarious. It continues to be run via some of the MSM and through the embedded Hillary teamsters on here.
It goes something like: ‘because Barack isn’t leading Hillary by more she should be handed the nomination.’ The illogic of that is classical – one of the most pathetic, desperate and transparent bits of spin bullsh*t I have ever seen.
Jen – You didn’t drink your wine prize donation bottle did you?
Thanks.
That’s an impressive group. It would seem strange after this if Edwards didn’t endorse Obama.
Al @ 601.
On the contray, I did not miss William’s memo and since then have referenced Ron only once to thank him for providing his source and a more detailed break down of his figures.
My other posts have simply been a reporting on the figures from the Dept of State site as they have been updated.
Hehe, Fox fair and balanced says Terry McAuliffe.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/michaelcalderone/0408/McAuliffe_praises_fair_and_balanced_Fox.html
A shame that MoveOn.org does not measure up to the Clinton camps’ standards.
Swing Lowe – for every argument mounted that Hillary is stronger, a response can be made for Obama. Interesting, but academic. She has lost.
With regards to the DLC, you are wrong. It is this wing of the party that substituted short term gains for the real reform that was required. It was this wing of the party that lost control of Congress for the first time in four decades (and incidently made Clinton’s presidency so ho-hum). It was this wing of the party that mirrored Blair’s Nu-Labour, offering the market driven, superficial sheen which turned people away from the Dems for the following decade. It is only with the weakening of the DLC that the Democratic Party are finding their way out of the wilderness.
A few other points. The DLC was highly supportive of the Iraq War, urging attacks on Saddam for years before 2003 – Its members have long mingled with the worst of the neo-con loons in the Project for a New American Century to this end. It beat the soul out of the party and created the impression that they stood for nothing with its wonderfully effective ‘triangulation’, and if you have a look at its largest doners you will see crossover with the same folks that fund PNAC and other Republican attack groups.
The DLC and its tactics are well presented by its polling and strategic wunderkind, Mark Penn. Even the Clintons have had enough of that.
Ferny Grover #614
Ron, I’m not sure the author of that philosophy (Jesus) would see the link between his words and the election of Bush – and nor can I.
This is a US politcal thread. You made the quote. If it did not relate to the US political thread you should not have made it. The quote however if appied to the political thread did result in the election of George Bush. Which is it
This is a precient article on the DLC from 2005
Going Nowhere: The DLC Sputters to a Halt
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20050321/berman
“After dominating the party in the 1990s, the DLC is struggling to maintain its identity and influence in a party beset by losses and determined to oppose George W. Bush. Prominent New Democrats no longer refer to themselves as such. The New Democratic movement of pro-free market moderates, which helped catapult Bill Clinton into the White House in 1992, has splintered, transformed by a reinvigoration of grassroots energy. A host of new donors, groups and tactics has forged a new direction for Democrats inside and outside the party, bringing together vital parts of the old centrist establishment and the traditional Democratic base. The ideological independence of the DLC, which pushed the party to the right, has come to be viewed as a threat rather than a virtue, forcing the DLC to adapt accordingly. Corporate fundraisers and DC connections–the lifeblood of the DLC–matter less and less: Witness the ascent of MoveOn.org and Howard Dean’s election as chair of the Democratic National Committee (DNC). “It’s not that the DLC changed,” says Kenneth Baer, who wrote a history of the organization. “It’s that the world changed around the DLC.”
…After Kerry’s defeat, the DLC promised to “avoid the circular firing squad” mentality but then quickly broke the promise, reverting to its favorite target: the Democratic base. Instead of labor unions and feminists, the DLC fixated on MoveOn.org and Michael Moore. “We need to be the party of Harry Truman and John Kennedy, not Michael Moore,” the DLC wrote on the Wall Street Journal op-ed page, of all places. “What leftist elites smugly imagine is a sophisticated view of their country’s flaws strikes much of America as a false and malicious cartoon,” the DLC’s Will Marshall wrote in Blueprint, the group’s magazine, in a rant worthy of The Weekly Standard. “Democrats should have no truck with the rancid anti-Americanism of the conspiracy-mongering left.” The DLC continued this vitriol into March.”
Must I join the dots for you Ron?
The reference was to Clinton selling her core values to win the votes – a US political reference.
If you dropped the US Democratic party into the Aussie political system would it be consided centre right? It doesn’t appear to me to be even vaguely left or centre left at all.
The US election race is certainly fascinating but the personalities are uninspiring at best (Obama) or downright scary (Clinton, McCain). At at time when America needs a leader more than ever their three options are duds.
You make a fair point, Sinowestie. All of them are to the right of even the Liberals in some respects. From my point of view, only one of them isn’t threatening the outbreak of nuclear holocaust.
Pancho,
The Nu-Labor/Third Way that you so decry is very similar to the package that Kevin Rudd offered to the Australian electorate last November. It’s the original form of “compassionate conservatism” – in Australia and the UK, that meant economic conservatism with social progressivism, whilst in the US, it has meant economic moderation (unfortunately, there still seems to be a large amount of support for protectionism in the US) with social centrism (by US standards).
It’s also worth noting that the UK Labour Party was an unelectable mob prior to Blair. They ran with fully-blown socialism in 1983 against Thatcher and got thumped, moved a little bit to the right in 1987 and also got thumped and then a little bit more in 1992 and still managed to lose to a government that had tried to introduce a poll tax AND had sent the country in recession. There is a clear correlation between the embrace of “New Labourism” by the UKLP and their electoral success – witness the 1997 and 2001 landslides, where the UKLP managed to get over their “Southern Discomfort”.
In the US, the issues were much more dominated by social issues. With the “loony” left effectively silenced by the DLC, the Democrats got the White House in 1992 and (for the first time since 1944) a Democratic President got re-elected in 1996. I think we can all agree that if Howard Dean had been the Democratic nominee in 2004 rather than John Kerry, George W Bush would have cruised to re-election, with electoral map probably looking something like the electoral map in 1988 (the last time a dyed-in-the-wool liberal was the Democratic nominee).
And Sinowestie @ 626, yes the US Democratic party would probably sit on the centre-right in Australia. But that shouldn’t surprise us – US politics has long been to the right of Australia’s.
G’day Ron,
Thanks for the 609.
Your extraordinary numerical interpretation skills bamboozled the “Obama Mythematicians” once again. I loved how you reduced newby “Callum” the pedant to a blubbering mess of inaccuracy, confusion and self doubt.
Who’s the effete fool now, eh!
Well here’s something you will never see from Hillary Clinton.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0408/McCain_implores_NC_GOP_to_not_air_ad.html
Pancho
#622 #624
FINALLY , there is clear understanding between you (I think a liberal democrat’ and me a ‘conservative democrat’ (“micro-target hawk bloodsucker).
I should stress to you a “core Obama” supporter that your ‘liberal democrat’ philosophy is profoundly different again from that of the Obamabots whose different separate again philosophy I leave to another day.
You are against the wing of the Party whos political views (and the philosophys & policys under pinning them) gave the Democrats POTUS for 8 years with wins in both 92 & 96.
You also are against the ’same’ type wing of Blair’s Labor Party that has delivered 10 years of Labor to England.
The wing of the Democrat Party you support philosophically has many admirable concepts with which I agree. But many of them as applied to election candidate selection , policy & strategy are the very reason why the Democrats have held POTUS 30% of the time since 1968 (DESPITE having superior policys to the Repugs). And why likely Obama a northeast elitiist’ liberal will lose (not saying you are elitist I may add). Therein the differnt philosophical wings of the Democrat Party lies the difference between the Candidates, and you and I
and FINNS and GG was that too much
Ron,
Too much of a good thing, is never enough.
SL – a few responses:
I agree that Rudd presented himself in this third-way vein. We will have to see how he and the ALP behaves over the next decade and a half, but as far as I can tell so far, he has not resorted to the divide and conquer left bashing that became the DLCs stock in trade over a long period.
‘Compassionate conservatism’ was George Bush’s slogan in 2000.
I agree with you that Labour were a shambles before Blair, but that doesn’t make his decade of inaction any more or less weak. Thatcher remarked not long ago that her greatest legacy was, in fact, Blair.
It is worth noting that the disasterous Dukakis go 46% of the vote. Bill got 43%. One Ross Perot (Mr. 19%) played as much a part in that 1992 victory as the brilliance of the DLC.
Does it really matter if you lose by a vote or 10%? The DLC and their spinelessness have been losing elections, support and party enthusiasm. The DNC under Dean has rebuilt those things, regained Congress, and has the Party poised to take the Whitehouse.
Anyway, I stand by my original point that the direction that Dean is leading the Party in is a great advance on where the DLC would have it.
Swing Lowe
The political landscape in the UK or Australia has little to do with the current situation in the US. What we are talking about is the need for change in the direction of US foreign policy – less neocon aggression and belligerence, or a more diplomatic, co-operative approach of engagement with the world, including the isl*mic world. Who represents the best chance for that to happen as POTUS? You know the answer.
Domestically what is needed is more distance between the White House and the vested interests of industry and finance to allow reform of the economy, health care and other domestic priorities. Who represents the best chance for that to happen as POTUS? You already know the answer.
Here’s an article on Obama and race. The comments section has some interesting contributions too.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/yoursay/index.php/theaustralian/comments/clinton_obama_is_the_democrats_only_hope/P25/
Intriguing prospect raised by one of the commenters on The Oz’s blog – what if the SDs go for Hillary over Obama and McCain then chooses Condi as his VP?
That could get the GOP some more black votes. Not sure how likely it is, but certainly a possibility…
Interesting devlopment in NC.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/22/234944/780
Swing Lowe, if the SDs go for Hillary over Obama, much more will be on the line than a leakage of Black votes.
If you still believe that Democrat voters will gladly transfer their votes from Obama to Hillary if the SDs override the overall voter’s verdict, then you are naive. It doesn’t mean they will vote for the GOP, but many will simply stay home, completely enraged at what they will see as a major injustice.
The point of no return occurred a long time ago, and anyone still thinking that Hillary is in with a chance are banking on the SDs making possibly the most self-destructive decision in the history of the Democrat party.
Nice one, GG. So Edwards supports nucular war on Iran too. Very interesting.
Hmm – I wonder if the Edwards endorsement is a signal that Hillary is taking NC (as well as IN) seriously.
Impoartantly, it will be interesting to see whether there is a shift to Clinton in NC following the result in PA…
GG
#633
Thanks GG.
Interesting the blogs are not intellectually challenged and the odd time they are they are done with very few Intellectual arguments but I can only presume they all share Ferny’s view that there contain nothing of merit. Odd that to a layman I would have thought my blogs consequentially would be easier to demolish
Swing lowe
#637
your introduction of Condi via another blog is behind the times and old news
My suggestion of it & some of its favourable political advantages to McCain were dismissed. Not that I have changed my views on Condi
Turning Worm
#640
Your one liner against Hillary’s Iran statement contains no support arguments
I supported Hillary’s comment with reasons #608. Can you rebut them
SL,
Maybe it confirms a swing in momentum in the campaign on the back of PA. If Hillary can cut in to Obama’s heartland of support then the doubts about his viability as the Nominee really start to bite.
Here’s a bold prediction for you SL:
Obama to win Indiana by 3 and NC by 12.
FG,
Surely that would be the end of that if your predictions were proved correct.
Pancho at 603, if you didnt already have a reason to turn off Hillary, hearing her campaign chairman praise what is the most biased right wing network is the icing on the cake
Ron, it’s not for me to rebut your support of Hillary’s warmongering. If 9/11 didn’t rebut the preceding 3 terms of Bush/Clinton new world order for you then nothing will.
GG
#638
Have just looked at that Dailykos story by Fineman about Mrs Edwards. With the US Press its hard to know whether they create storys for a quiet day , its their personal barrow or its objective reporting based on sound sources.
Earlier today there was a report here of 49 or so ex Edwards upporters endorsing & joining Obama .
What we do know for a fact which the Obama supporters cringe at & will not acknowledge is Elizabeth Edwards has repeatedly & publicly endorsed Hillary’s Healthcare Plan and has criticised Obama’s. The reaons include Hillary’s are universal (which publicly John Edwards also endorses) & Obama’s is a mix of ‘right’ wing philosophy.
So if Edwards ends up with Obama and he may , it will be because he & Obama are from similar/closer wings in the Party vs. Hillary and has been ‘factionally’ pressured depite healthcare policy being at the heart of his beliefs.
Ron,
I agree the article was vague and it was certainly interesting to juxtapose it with those earlier comments by some PBers.
Maybe it is a beat up. Maybe it is a sign of a change in political momentum.
Don’t know at this stage.
Questions for Hillary fans eg. Finns:
If Obama wins the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, do you still expect the SDs to favour Clinton??
Do you believe there would be a backlash from Democrat supporters if this happened?
Or maybe Edwards just prefers Obama overall. Why does an Obama endorsement need to involve ‘pressure’?
Edwards doesn’t strike me as being susceptible to pressure.
FG,
What about ‘rolling pin” pressure if Edwards supports one candidate and his wife another?
Well GG, Andy Capp would tell you that the rolling pin is the ultimate authority.
Personally, I doubt Mr Edwards will endorse anyone. His wife might.
Indians reject US tips on Iran & Joins Axis of Weevils
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23587992-25837,00.html
Not been a good week for Condi.
FG @ 644,
If that prediction is correct, then Hillary will be out of the race.
As I’ve said before, doing well in NC is nice for her, but she must win in IN.
Ron, forcing everyone to pay for health insurance no matter their personal circumstances and taking money out of their wages if they don’t, doesn’t sound too liberal to me. That sounds like a wet dream for the health insurance lobby.
You like to repeat the Clinton meme about the lack of compulsion in Obama’s plan making it a right-wing policy. You conveniently leave out these nuggets from Obama’s healthcare plan.
———-
# Employer Contribution: Employers that do not offer or make a meaningful contribution to the cost of quality health coverage for their employees will be required to contribute a percentage of payroll toward the costs of the national plan. Small employers that meet certain revenue thresholds will be exempt.
# Expansion Of Medicaid and SCHIP: Obama will expand eligibility for the Medicaid and SCHIP programs and ensure that these programs continue to serve their critical safety net function.
# Flexibility for State Plans: Due to federal inaction, some states have taken the lead in health care reform. The Obama plan builds on these efforts and does not replace what states are doing. States can continue to experiment, provided they meet the minimum standards of the national plan.
———-
Exempting low income earners from having to pay for insurance and increasing medicaid to help these people out does not sound too right wing to me.
You can read it here:
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/healthcare/#new-initiatives
655
codger
Bloody ‘ell codge, I nearly choked on my beer!
Those Indians telling the white honkies with their North American peso to go and take a leap is the funniest thing I’ve read in ages!
Who needs comedians when the world is this funny?
656 SL
NC is to Clinton what PA and OH were to Obama. Wrong demographic. Obama will win it easily.
Indiana is a far more complex mix of young, old, blue collar, uni grads, black and white – all of which is making it line-ball in the polls. It does border Illinois and many Indianans work in Chicago and receive Illinois TV and news (which generally favours Obama). They therefore have known of Obama for a long time and Obama is yet to lose a state bordering Illinois. Bear in mind though, that it also borders Michigan (which has recently swung strongly to Obama) Ohio and Kentucky – but the reach of Chicago is much more influential in Indiana.
Whether that is enough to tip the scales on what is set to be a very tight race, I don’t know for sure. The poll movement has been towards Obama of late which is why I’m tipping him to win in a close one. This trend needs to be maintained of course and anything can happen in 12 days.
FG @ 659,
My sentiments exactly…
codger
Here’s one back at you:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/business/worldbusiness/24debt.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…that’s a growth industry, for sure! LOL
660
Swing Lowe
Not just your sentiments SL, that’s Hillary’s entire strategy! LOL
(Unless Obama fulls under a political bus, she’s got buckley’s)
Ron #608 You think it “redundant” that Iran has no nuclear capacity. BTW I didn’t add that Israel has a nuclear missiles and a submarine fleet to fire them. My point, which I went on to make, is that she is not responding to a real threat but to an imagined threat. The old and tarnished army of neo-cons have been sabre rattling at Iran for the last year and a bit. To their immense discredit, sections of the Democratic Party have played along with the barrage of misinformation regarding Iran’s alleged nuclear program and their supposed links to insurgents in Iraq (when they in fact have their closest connection to the Shi-ites in America’s puppet government).
In this context her casual threat of genocide is both alarming and atrocious. Your defence on the basis that, if the Iranian’s haven’t any nukes, they have nothing to worry about reminds me of the arguments the right uses to justify attacks on civil liberties: “if you’ve got nothing to hide…”.
In any case, the point isn’t only the threat to Iran; it’s the appeal she’s making to the basest fears and the wildest “bomb, bomb Iran” fantasies of the redneck demographic. She’s pitching for a continuation of neo-con foreign policy with the compensation of a healthcare plan. And of course the US can’t afford both.
I should put in my 2 cents on the course of the IN Primary:
I agree with what FG said at 659. However, IN, whilst a state bordering Illinois, is much more “rust belt” than states like Wisconscin and Iowa. It has been more affected by the economic downturn that either WI or IA.
For Clinton to win, she needs to do well in rural areas (obviously) and be competitive in Indianapolis to win. If she can get a similar result in Indianapolis as she did in Pittsburgh (where she won) or Cleveland (where she narrowly lost), she should be on her way to winning in IN. Her biggest concerns are going to be those Indiana suburbs of Chicago in the North-West of the state – this is obviously going to be Obama heartland. All up, it should be tight, but I assert that the demographics in this state should favour Clinton overall – so I’m predicting a narrow win (less than 5% – similar to the Texas primary) for her.
In NC, it’s obviously a lot harder for her. Lots of African Americans there, plus 3 huge college towns (Duke, UNC and NC State) and a couple of significant metropolitan centres (Charlotte, Greensboro, Raleigh). However, there are also large tracts of very conservative rural areas – the question is whether these normally Republican voters can cross-over and vote in the Democratic primary. If they can, then she’s got a chance – otherwise, she’s probably gone for all money.
Well, that’s my 2 cents…
SL – I agree with your Indiana rundown. I think within 5 either way, and a pretty tricky one to pick.
NC is a writeoff for Hills. For a start about 50% of Dems voters there are black, so count 40-45% of the total vote to Obama before anything else. Beyond that he only needs 1 in 4 votes to win comfortably, and will get more than that, looking at how things have played out so far. If the demographic blocks have held so steadily for so long long, there is no objective reason to think they will shift in Obama’s heartland because Hillary says so. It will be closer to a 20 point margin than 10.
This creates problems for Hillary – there is still a hole bloc of NC SDs who have not endorsed. Most, if not all, will fall to Obama if it is a blowout. She really needs to neutralise this with a win in Indiana.
GG & Ron, tq for holding the fort. have been out there earning few quids. anyway back on deck ready to give these Obamabots the mirror by which they can reflect upon. I bet you they dont like it very much what they see, especially the newbies.
Finns,
No doubt you’ll be handing out Viagara eyedrops so they can have a long hard look at themseves.
Actually Finns – what I see are the numbers and they’re still looking damn fine for Obama.
Obama get another super bringing the numbers to +23 for Clinton.
LINCOLN, Neb. – Audra Ostergard, Associate Chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party and member of the Democratic National Committee, publicly announced her support for Senator Barack Obama in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/samgrahamfelsen/gGCVbx
Some maths here, outlining Hillary’s problem – you can’t win with flawed narratives alone:
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/02723/7112/307/502085
“Obama needs only 43 more unpledged superdelegates to clinch the nomination. That’s right. Not 100, not 60. Just 43. At 43 more currently-named, unpledged superdelegates, Obama and his supporters can claim that Hillary Clinton cannot win.”
And the flawed narrative itself gets a knock in the NYT:
Assessing the Strength of Contenders in Swing States
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/us/politics/24clinton.html
‘Yet for all of her primary night celebrations in the populous states, exit polling and independent political analysts offer evidence that Mr. Obama could do just as well as Mrs. Clinton among blocs of voters with whom he now runs behind. Obama advisers say he also appears well-positioned to win swing states and believe he would have a strong shot at winning traditional Republican states like Virginia.
According to surveys of Pennsylvania voters leaving the polls on Tuesday, Mr. Obama would draw majorities of support from lower-income voters and less-educated ones — just as Mrs. Clinton would against Mr. McCain, even though those voters have favored her over Mr. Obama in the primaries.
And national polls suggest Mr. Obama would also do slightly better among groups that have gravitated to Republican in the past, like men, the more affluent and independents, while she would do slightly better among women.’
Robert B @ 663, your erudition in painting the ‘alarming and atrocious’ is a joyous & pearly thing, but pales next to your admirable stamina…
in my swinish opinion.
AT LAST! A BOOK WITHOUT A SPINE!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/imagedata/0,,6001451,00.jpg
It wouldn’t shock me if John Edwards endorsed Hillary! He doesn’t seem to get on that well with Obama, at least that’s my impression.
Pancho at 670
That link about the numbers for the end-game was very useful. Something worth noting is that the 42 superdelegates needed to close competition is based on a rather conservative estimate strongly biased towards Hillary Clinton over the coming competitions. At the end of the article is a review of the numbers taking into account a more realistic projection which generates an end-game super delegate number of just 35.
Batman recently had his wings clipped in Gotham, Spiderman got caught up in a web of intrigue, and now this!
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=A9G_R3PhTRBIQzkAl0IDwLAF
Christ only knows what the Dem faithful will do if their Super-Delegates mess with the laws of the Democractic nomination process.
Archivists please mouse over date box of April 24 (above) to achieve full humour impaction.
Here is a clue from the Votemaster as to how the November vote will go no matter who wins between Obama and Clinton.
The Democratic primary in Pennsylvania wasn’t the only election yesterday. In northern Mississippi, voters went to the polls to elect a new congressman in MS-01, the seat vacated by Roger Wicker who was appointed to fill Trent Lott’s seat in the Senate. MS-01 is an R+10 district the Republicans have held for a decade, so it should have been a cakewalk. Only it wasn’t. Despite the NRCC pouring $300,000 into the race, Democrat Travis Childers got 49.6% of the vote to Republican Greg Davis’ 46.3%. Travis fell 410 votes under 50% so there will be a runoff May 13. Nobody thought the NRCC was going to pour money into such a strong Republican district and then lose. Undoubtedly both the DCCC and NRCC are going to be spending like drunken sailors for the next three weeks.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
This is the second massive swing to the Democrats recently.
673
ShowsOn
Last year we had some fun with names.
Mine for Costello was: Bracket Creep
Maybe he could use it as a nom de plume?
678
Chris B
And remember Hastert’s seat? They went ghostly pale after that one!
It is NOT the Republican’s year, eh?
This is for Rain:
All the above is a mess, but things may get even more complicated as we approach the two national Conventions and the general election. A win by either of the Democrats could have “coattails” that also helps downticket candidates for the House and Senate. Obama, in particular, is very likely to help Democrats add a couple more Senate seats, because his strategy in both the primaries and the general election is to win more, if smaller, states while Clinton is aiming at the larger, voter-rich states. (Those two approaches — more states with fewer voters versus fewer states with more voters — add up to be roughly equivalent in terms of total electoral college votes for President, but since small states and large states alike have the same number of Senators — two — the candidate who wins hearts and minds in a greater number of states, regardless of size, will give coattails to more of his party’s Senate candidates, as well. Incidentally, this is another reason I don’t think the Superdelegates will override the popular vote and hand the Dem nomination to Hillary, but that’s another post.)
HuffPost
…or, should Obama just act like Hillary, and kick her in the nuts?
Turning Worm #657
As an overview only I’ll reply
Your reference at the bottom of your post says it comes from Obama’s site
and provides all the positive fluff info for people to google onto & be happy
Had you checked Rudy’s site , Huck’s site, Romney’s site they’re all positive
The point is Obama’s is optional for adults. People cann’t afford it won’t buy it and 45 million do not. If they can’t afford under Obama’s plan they will not buy it either because their money is at their discretion to spend & their discretion can be faulty. The minimum expected non insured under Obama’s plan is 15 million. Obama’s plan allows the Insurance Industry to contiinue at their profit at the public’s expense. . Emploer contributions to assist Obama’s plan quoting you are a meaningful contribution (what’s that). States can continue to experiment & continue their plan under national guidelines meaning p to 50 different plans depending where you live. Obama mentions affordability but does not commit to what that means. John Howard would be proud of it. Its a neocon health plan drssed up with fliuff of afforability & some exemptions.
Which is why both john & Elizabeth Edwards oppose Obama’s & support Hillary’s which is universal , all americans will be covered , they have to buy it but Hillary has made a specific committment as to how much individuals will pay. Hillary has the ‘ticker’ to make herself liable to make it work. If you reread Obama’s above he can blame everyone but himself if his plan does not work..no pecifics of affordabilty , the Insurance Co’s are at fault , the Employers are at fault , the various & different State plans are at fault etc but not Obama. Now I’ve got to the end of this blog and realised ‘you guys do not get it’. Sack me GG & FINNS
Maybe the next bit of the last post makes it more interesting:
If the Dems can gain just one more seat next November, then they don’t need Lieberman to retain a majority any longer; he’d lose his ability to blackmail them with the threat of a Cheney-dominated Senate, and Lieberman would lose both his remaining political pull and his committee chairmanship. Hopefully he’d retire at the end of his term, leaving the path open for Ned Lamont to take his rightful seat.
The problem is that Lieberman knows this math better than anyone — and he’s self-centered and manipulative enough to take steps to secure his power. How? By making sure that the Democrats don’t win in November. And what’s the most helpful thing he could offer the Republicans? It’s obvious: for Al Gore’s vice-presidential running mate from 2000 to announce that his beloved Democratic Party has abandoned common sense and is weak on defense and hates Israel and loves terrorists yadda yadda — then cap his betrayal by giving the Republican National Convention’s keynote address.
Or, even worse, to do all of the above, then become John McCain’s running mate, and the first person in U.S. history to run for Vice President in both parties, giving McCain a very strong shot at winning moderate and independent voters who don’t realize that Lieberman is as conservative a war-hawk as they come.
…which is funny really, because Hillary has morphed into Lieberman in drag.
Maybe they could start their own party: The Republic Cheer Leaders
677
Enemy Combatant
Bummer,Ecky! Gravity suks!
Maybe that could be ’sux’ in the new digitally enhanced but literacy challenged new lexicon for thumb literati?
KR
McCain,Lieberman and Hillary already have their own Party.
The AIPAC Party.
Hilllary is now promising to end the Iraq war within 60 days of gaining the Whitehouse
Ron, again you have forgotten the bit about the increased medicaid budget to cover low income people. This should not be so foreign to you. In Australia low income people don’t pay the medicare levy but they are still covered by the government system.
I guess she’s feeling the heat rom the Dem doves over her Iran ‘obliteration’ moment.
i know this will probably throw a pussy cat among the pigeons here, but this guy here makes good sense.
He said that “Hillary and Barack, let go of your egos”, form a partnership, a dream team and save the World. As Hillary and Barack lock in a life and death struggle, the beneficiary will the Repugs.
I think I agree with the writer here. I floated an idea from way back that Hillary will serve one term and Barack can have the next two terms. The Veep role will prepare Barack well for the future POTUS role.
You can’t really argue with this:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/local/bal-md.rodricks24apr24001517,0,3482827,print.column
Hillary wants to superficially end Iraq so the military can regenerate and recover enough to attack Iran.
She is a Hawk to her bootstraps, controlled by warmongers.
If her or Bomb Bomb become President…it’s on.
is that a comedy piece Finns?
“Combine their funds” and form a dream ticket.
does that mean they combine Obama’s $40 million funds with Hillary’s $10 million debt.
cmon. she’s finished.
687
HarryH
Ain’t that the truth! And how ironic that Israel was stealing nuke secrets from the US via its spy network?
But now of course, they have to ‘defend’ Israel?
It really makes me laugh how the Likud party runs Washington.
690
Ferny Grover
I think Hill and Macca should do a duet cover version of the Beach Boys song, don’t you?
And how many older women will she lose with this silly pandering to the lunar right?
“Now that Pennsylvanians have voted, here are the latest delegate counts as compiled by the television networks and Associated Press.” (polwire)
…………………..Delegates. ……………………….. % of 2025…………………..
NBC: Obama 1,727, Clinton 1,594…………85.3………………..78.7
ABC:……….. 1,721,…………1,586…………85.0………………..78.3
CNN:…………1,719,…………1,586…………84.8………………..78.3
CBS:…………1,715,…………1,585…………84.7………………..78.3
AP:……………1,714,………..1,589………….84.6……………….78.4
NYT:………….1,699…………1,524………….83.9……………….76.3
Doing the math can be so goddamn empowering, unless of course you are a Brutusina booster.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html
“Meanwhile, David Nather notes the Clinton campaign is renewing efforts to get the media — and superdelegates — to focus on popular vote count rather than total delegates.”
Brutusina logic dictates: Why split the scene if you can change the meme?
……………….
Kirri, trust you to be the first Bludger to connect black holes, string theory and sex! You must be some kind of SuperFreak.
Not Hillary and McCain KR…
It should be John Ashcroft and John McCain, singing ‘Let the Eagle Soar’ with a Beach Boys medley.
“Hello Obama? This is Hillary. I’ve got a proposition for you. How about you give me your $40 million and I’ll let you be my VP? Yes I know you’re in front, but that doesn’t mean you’re winning. It’s time you accepted that you can’t win in November even though you’re thumping my ass all over the country. So what that you’ve won 30 out of 45 starts! I’ve won 15 and mine are bigger! What? You’ve got more delegates and that’s what counts? I’ve got Bill and he’s been to Beaver!
And anyway, you can’t deliver the knockout blow can ya Slick? I’m still standing here right behind you. Whad’ya mean THAT’s the point? Just give me your f**kn money and p*ss off!”
It’s getting delusionally desparate, this delaying in the hope lightning will strike. From Bayh:
‘With his state’s critical primary in two short weeks, Democratic Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh — a strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton — has been leaning on the Hoosier State’s freshman House members to stay on the sidelines rather than endorse Sen. Barack Obama.’
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/04/23/why_endorse_bayh_asks_hoosier.html
Ah yes, the B’s definitely have it, Ferny.
Billary= Beltway Brutusina + Bouncing Beaver.
Also, what’s the betting, once the smoke clears that a large majority of Clinton’s post Penn fundraising is for the General, and can’t be used in the Primaries (just like it has been in the last two months)? I’d have closed the books on that one by now actually.
Talk about pathological. Check this out:
http://huckabeealliance.wordpress.com/2008/04/23/is-hillary-clinton-getting-the-huckabee-treatment/
according to RCP they have delegated 150 of the 158 Delegates apportioned to Pennsylvania.
Hillary is ahead by a whopping 12. Lets give her 5 of the remaining 8 for an overall gain of 15.
This still leaves her 151 pledged delegates behind.
That is about 12% of her 1335 delegates.
And the Clinton clan is trying to say it is an insignificant lead.
12% in politics is a cavern.
She lost this nomination in February. Super Tuesday and then 11 straight losses killed her.
Ferny @698 – I see that realist and believable dialogue in scene 21 of the movie soon to be made of this saga. Louise Fletcher plays Hillary of course (little interest from other actors, except Madonna), and many vibrant young black actors will vie for Barack’s role.
Well JV, Madonna is old and shallow enough – but let’s go for Louise.
Scene 21 huh? I better get writing the rest.
Scene 1 – on an alien spaceship Ridley crouches in fear….
706 …on a dark and stormy night on a Tuesday …
707…..the shrieks and drools of an alien mother writhing in pain can mean only one thing…….
……..a Hillary has been born
708 … a crowd gathered around this wonderful happening, and amazingly the baby Hillary rose unsteadily to her feet and said “My mother was raped by aliens and I’m their baby” …
696
Enemy Combatant
Ecky, you post:
Kirri, trust you to be the first Bludger to connect black holes, string theory and sex! You must be some kind of SuperFreak.
…and your post is numbered 696!
I mean, look who’s talkin’ Ecky! It’s da numbers man, it’s the numbers, they’re talkin’ to us, can’t you see it???
It’s like a freakin’ menage a trois of the invertable numerals…it’s Obi-Hilly-Macca doin’ the triangulatin’ tango! Oh my god, there they are, in the numbers!
709
jaundiced view
“And soon, a man who bears my name, will leave his beekeeping in New Zealand and climb Mt Everest! How prophetic is that?”
indeed the numbers don’t lie.
look who made a return after a small absence on the devil’s number on the previous page.
709
“HILLARY” boomed a voice emanating from a blue bucket of jelly in the corner.
“You are destined – STOP DROOLING! Where was I? Ah yes…you are destined for greatness…overshadowed only by a charsmatic man named Clinton.”
“oh…and another charismatic man named Obama”
I don’t believe this, people wanting to talk numbers on a psephology site.
Even Mrs. Clinton’s “fageddabout the delegates everyone, it’s the popular vote that counts” looks decidedly wobbley when one crunches the following figures. Obi can afford to spend twice as much time in IA as NC over the next dozen days.
“More than 165,000 people have registered to vote in North Carolina in the first three months of the year, a nearly threefold increase from the same period in 2004. Election officials expect a record turnout May 6 – about half of the more than 5.7 million registered voters, compared with past turnouts ranging from 16 percent to 31 percent. (So who do you reckon’s the strongest vote magnet, eh? I mean seriously, guys, this is huge any which way you wish to glom it.)
Another wild card: A new law allows unregistered voters to sign up and vote on the same day through May 3. Both campaigns have launched efforts to turn out those voters, and the polling sites have been flooded since they opened last week.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/NORTH_CAROLINA_PRIMARY?SITE=CONGRA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
————————-
Might have to fit her up with a Boiler Attendant’s Certificate, but I suggest that Charlize Theron would do a first class job in the leading role. Saw her play opposite Tommy Lee Jones in the minor masterpiece ,”The Valley of Elah” today. A ripper of a film that diagnoses the cancer in the Sep body politic as well as any in recent years.
The last two paragraphs:
The emergence of Senator John McCain, whose career is notable for his breaks with party orthodoxy and the Right, as the Republican nominee has been made possible only because of the fracturing of the conservative coalition forged since 1968. His strategy would have to encompass states off limits to Republicans for more than a decade and to temper the radicalism of his party, even as he tries to reassure an anxious Right that views him with suspicion. In 1952, the originator of the notion of realignment, political scientist Samuel Lubell, wrote in his seminal work, The Future of American Politics, American politics is not a contest of “two equally competing suns, but a sun and a moon. It is within the majority party that the issues of the day are fought out; while the minority party shines in the reflected radiance of the heat thus generated.” When Lubell wrote, even as Dwight Eisenhower was about to win the presidency resoundingly, the Democrats were the sun and the Republicans the moon. Only after Nixon did the parties exchange place in the political solar system. Now after George W. Bush a new Copernican revolution is occurring.
But the Democrats have not yet solidified a new coalition. They may be on the eve of becoming a majority national party for the first time in their history without conservative Southerners at their core. But they may still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, mesmerized by grandiose delusions as if the past were weightless. Just as the Republican collapse under Bush has given the Democrats an unprecedented opening, the Democrats may still find a way to reinvent the Republicans. Even if they win the presidency, the Democrats can only consolidate their future coalition through skillful and successful governing. Only then will they be the sun. In Bush’s final days, a new era has not yet dawned, but an old one is setting.
http://www.salon.com/books/excerpt/2008/04/24/blumenthal_death/index.html
…of a good read.
Life was much more simple when middle aged white men ran for office
Another classic Jon Stewart bit:
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/74741/0676/39/502361
EC 715 – The article says North Carolina is Hillary’s last straw, although I think maybe there’ll be some drawn straws (maybe by a pro-Clinton cartoonist) after that, if required.
And EC – The boiler suit for the movie – will Hillary wilingly give it up?
Pancho 718 – Who puts it better than Stewart?
As to Hillary’s chances after the less than reviving PA heartland damp squib, I am reminded of a common event in my childhood in inner Sydney.
Playng street cricket in Summer Hill, someone hits the ball a bit further than usual and you are chasing it but it goes towards the gutter , and is rolling towards the drain – big enough for the ball but with prohibitive steel slats for a kid. You try to run faster, but then the dawning horror that you can’t make it – the ball is going down, and does; game over. Why am I reminded of that old nightmare?
JV #720 We are all of us in the gutter, but some of us are pitching to the slime.
718
Pancho
Stewart is the master. What great clips, and what a sorry bleating from Hillary now that she realises she cannot win.
Maybe she could come out with Lieberman and McCain and do a trio version of Bomb,bomb Iran?
That would be a killer clip on Youtube!
ROBERT BOLAND replying to your blog
#663
re Iran nukes and US policy and neocon foreign policy
Robert , do not have your conciseness but here I go. You make points covering political , the neocons , the nukes existence & healthcare , but then add some assumed quotes I did not make. May I address each & then collectively
Politcally she made the Iran nuke statement in the context of Penns. saying IF I repeat IF Iran put nukes in the air to Israel , then she would repond with nukes.Were you to reread my blog #608 I DID say this comment was one made partly for her political reasons (ie. to shore up the conservative Democrat wing in Penns) so you are challenging me on something I’ve already said was one of her reasons for the comment. I see nothing wrong with a Pollie making political vote winning statements if as I explain later they also have a sound policy base.
Your noecons foreign policy comparison liking them to Hillary is where I proudly disagree with you on. Hillary is obviously from the same Democrat wing as Bill (& Al Gore I believe as well). They & I believe in a credible miltary deterrent run side by side with diplomatic, real & soundly based outcomes orientated diplomatic policy which does include economic but not alone.
Having a sound & genuine diplomacy policy AND a credible military deterrent (the other side believes as a last resort you will use) is what Hillary believes in.
Bush does not believe in diplomavy at all. Bush only believes in the military deterrent and threatening the use of it with or without the use of trade penalties.
The world should have learnt from from England’s Chamberlain’s capitulation to Hitler that without a credible military deterrent appeasement ultimately follows.
The World did learn this during the Cold War which otherwise could have ended up with a nuke war and no site for William.
Philosophically you may disagree with fair dinkum diplomacy backed up with a military deterrence. Hillary supports a robust UN unlike Bush and closer engagement with Europe unlike Bush. Hillary is a strong proponent of patient & sound diplomacy (as Bill did) something Bush detests. She is very pro Israel but so was Bill and yet Bill assisted with the Oslo Accords & later Begin & Yassa Arafat in Washington (2 sworn enemys) so her toughness & ‘ticker’ may shift Israel whose majority I think favour more Palestinian dialogue anyway unlike their Leader. Hillary talks tough now for generally domestic political advantage (there are alot of ’soft’ Repugs , consrvative Independents & of course the more ‘left’ “conservative Democrat” wing) but look back at Bill’s speechs and he did also. Yet Bill had Arafat a few times to the White House & other so called ‘evil’ people. To suggest Hillary is significantly different if at all to Bill in their political foreign values beggars belief. Bush HAS HAD NONE of these ‘evil’ people & the Palestinian Pres. does not fit the bill.The above is not Bush doctrine at all but rather the proper patient use of diplomacy backed by but not replaced by a military deterrent. The fact Hillary is so disliked , often with justification and that she is over ambitious & uses political expediency & has the ‘left’ “conservative Democrat” wing foreign polcy base does not make her or her wing of the Party neocon or anything like it. So if you think otherwise yes we are in full and most profound disagreement.
Being I think ‘a socialist’ anything sounding like in the ‘right’ area you may just lump together given the ’socialist’ view base but I’m inly guessing. I feel you are perhaps confusing the ‘left’ “conservative Democrat” wing as above with the Bush looney neocon philosophy , simply because some of the things Hillary says are similar to Condi etc. The neocon policy is overwhelmingly different to Hillary’s , ie. if you can call Repugs foreign policy a Policy at all. To the Repugs, there seems no effective diplomacy policy fullstop. The wrong problem areas of the World are the neocon ‘target ones , mainly for right’ idealogical views or economic advantage of their financial backers. To the Repugs there are goodies & badies and nothing in between. You do not talk diplomatically to the baddies at all , you threaten them , you put trade bans on them and you ultimately sow the seeds of discontent in their youth to be preyed on
You sh..t on the UN (Hillary believes in it) you sh..t on France when it had a ‘left’ President , you sh.t on Germny when it had a ‘left’ Chancellor , you sh.t on the EEC over farm subsidies, you invade Iraq with faulty as well as false intel. and invade for other reasons, you leave the terror spot of Afghanistan to fester and you support the despotic oil sheiks delaying an inevitable Shah type revolution etc etc. To suggest this is Hillary’s policy is not as I’ve described her policy stance earlier and furthermore to suggest Senior Democrats forming part of her Cabinet would think so either is implausible I suggest.
Hillary is between the looney right on one hand & the peace activists on the other, either of whom by miscalculation could cause a nuke war. So Obama is not for mine , too dangerous for preserving the World from a nuke blowup pehaps eg. with India vs Pakistan…. because I think he is ’soft’ and lacks ‘ticker’ and the friendly and unfriendly opponents in the reality tough & greedy World out there will not believe a credible military deterrence with him
NUKES in Iran ?
Firstly, the Iranians may never invaded anyone before but that logic applies to every invader/aggressor on the first time he does. So that arguement lapses.
Secondly, Intel suggests Iran originating weapons are in Afghanistan used against our troops & others and found also in Iraq (thats why we have intel.),
I think the Iran leader is a ‘nut’ (whereas Bush is just plain dumb) & their para mitiary wing are potentially dangerous with Iraq & Afghanistan as a backdrop.
So lets not kid ourselves the Iranians are peaceful loving like the Swedes today. The Iranians CURRENTLY are not innocents World citizens.
Thirdly, their potential to have nukes ? We do know they are enriching uranium (they claim for electricity). The UN inspectors & the Atomic energy Comm
indicated they were 3 to 5 years away from getting nukes if they chose that path. We do not know whether they will or will not proceed to nuke manufacture and satellite intel is & will not be ever conclusive. We do know the possession of nukes dramatically increases a Country’s bargaining position diplomatically , militarily & politically.
So there is both motive & opportunity to develop nukes for Iran, from a regime that in in the last 5 years hardly can be called a peace loving all Country like Sweden
I argue therefore there is a clear and potential danger. You can argue to do nothing & hope the Iranians do not go nuke. I alternatively argue that it is wiser to assume they will ultimately go nuke and to prepare policys (INCLUDING diplomatic & engaging ones) that accept they will be a nuke Country.
Whilst I’ve accepted Hillarys comments were political they were also geo political.
You say “if the Iranian’s haven’t any nukes, they have nothing to worry about reminds me of the arguments the right uses to justify attacks on civil liberties: “if you’ve got nothing to hide…”.
As my response to your argument , I say they will probably become nuke anyway. Therefore the base of your argument they have no nukes lapses. Whilst I think Iran will get nukes I think the lead time to achieve it is long. Their President has publicly said he’d wipe Israel off the face of the earth on more than one occasion. Obviously some other senior Iranian politicans agree with him , he’s hardly going to say it one off.
Consequently Hillary’s comment IF Iran puts nukes in the sjky directed at Israel , it is not a theoretical or baseless suggestion. The Iranian President said it.
You say its an alarming and atrocious comment. I suggest based on the above clear and potential danger, it is a wise comment….. giving warning that if you put those nukes in the sky and only if you do , then the US will respond with nukes against you. Hillary is showing the ‘ticker’ with the nuke premptive threat as a preventive action and so she should to deter both the Iranian President and his like minded supporters. Therefore whilst I believe Iran will become nuke, the effect of Hillarys comment will be that Iran will NEVER contemplate what the Iranian President and some of his like minded Senior operatives says he’d like to do
If you were an Italian in Rome , thinking of Iran (the non peaceful citizen in due course developing even longer range nuke missile) you’d also be comforted that they won’t be flying at Rome either because Iran knows the consequences. Similarly a few year later as Iran increases the missile range, Parisians will also feel similarly comforted.
As a potential POTUS she has ever right & obligation to the American people to state what her policy will be to a potential nuke Iran
No other nuke possessing Country has made the repeated public threats to anniliate another Country with nukes except Iran whose President has threatened repeatedly to do (against Israel)
Some of the confusion & distaste for Hillary’s comment is because the recipient of the threat is “Israel” but part of that is because we may be distasteful of the blatant US bias towards Israel in ignoring the inhumane to put it lightly treatment of the Palestinains for 40 years. But that really should be viewed as a separate issue, if people can separate their anger of the Palestinian treatment from this Iranian threat issue. Why ? because the Iranians COULD have made the same threat against Saudi or Jordan or Turkey and Hilary’s comments should still be made and with justification
Threats of nuke use IF the other Country has already launched may upset the appetite , but it is part (with diplomacy ) in trying to keep the world from a nuke disaster.As to Bush’s foreign ‘policys’ my distain earlier surely was apparent
I’ve made the mistake of writing numerous blogs with silence in reply but that is life. I certainly did not write this to change your opinion as you would naturally believe its soundly based. Why I put the effort in was to suggest that your (I assume) ’socialist’ views does not mean Hillary’s (and my) views on foreign policy are neocon or Bush ‘right’ doctrine and they are not. The fact that a part of a policy of Hillary’s or the words thereto spoken are similar to the ‘right’ does not make them ‘right’ at all. It just means some aspects of the ‘right’ policys for Hillary (& me) like the prudent use of or the taking of military deterrence which may be similaronly in some respects and certainly different from Hillarys first use of sound diplomacy
What I’m saying is Hillary’s is different foreign policy both from the ’socialists’ and the ‘neocons’ and that the Iran nuke comment was warranted on both political and geo political grounds
Michigan is no longer a part of the equation.
A federal judge ruled today that Michigan’s law that placed the primary on January 15th was unconstitutional. The issue at hand was this 2007 law’s stipulation that the Election Day’s voting lists containing the party preferences of voters (i.e. whether they chose a Democratic or a Republican ballot) would be sent to the state’s Democratic and Republican parties. Smaller parties, helped by the ACLU, protested that this was a violation of their rights, and that if they were not going to be given the records as well the Democratic and Republican parties should not get them either.
This issue had been on the table for quite some time now, and some people had speculated (and Clintonites had hoped) that Judge Edmunds could rule that a re-vote is necessary with a proper law as a remedy for the unconstitutional law that set up the January 15th primary. But Edmunds did no such thing: The fact that the primary law (and thus the January 15th primary) is unconstitutional does not mean that there will be a re-vote. In fact, considering that the Michigan legislature adjourned last week without being able to pass a law setting up a do-over, a re-vote is as unlikely as ever.
Two small consequences, however, out of this decision, beyond the very important fact that the judge did not order a revote (a victory for Obama). First, whatever chance there was that the DNC recognize delegates based on the January 15th vote is now almost inexistent. In finding some sort of resolution to the Michigan delegate crisis, the DNC will now be even less sympathetic to pleas from the Michigan Democratic Party since the contest that was held that the state’s Democrats want to see counted has now been pretty much invalidated.
http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2008/03/michigan-makes-news-again.html
A little context, as Jon Stewart likes to say:
Admiral Fallon tells everyone (well a journalist, and we get to hear about it!), that he thinks the Washington line on Iran is, ah, how shall we say it, crap. He doesn’t use that word, but we know what he means.
General Petraeus goes to Washington and tells ‘em exactly what they want to hear.
Admiral Fallon gets the shove.
General Petraeus gets Fallon’s job as grand poohbah general of Central Asia and Mesopotamia.
Hillary comes out and makes an absurdly disingenuous statement about bombing Iran.
Hang on, isn’t bashing Iran (by making inferences which aren’t borne out by the facts) the current Washington policy of Bush and his merry band of Neocons?
And Hillary wants us to believe she’s ready on day one? What for? More of the f*cking same lying and crappola that we’ve had for nearly eight years?
Nearly 20 years, KR.
“Hang on, isn’t bashing Iran (by making inferences which aren’t borne out by the facts) the current Washington policy of Bush and his merry band of Neocons?”
thats why your knowledge of foreigh policy is limited to a line
724
Catrina Says:
April 25th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Michigan is no longer a part of the equation
That would be clever. Just p…off another State….thats a ‘blue’ one this time.
You really think over half a million registered Democrats voting 57% for Hillary
are going to ignored by the Convention at the risk of putting off all those faithful & losing the state…dreamland stuff , if they do , McCain will be happy
FINNS
The Obambots did not want to talk about Penns today
I’ve got a Pennnsylvania voting update , you may wish to share with them tomorrow
Hillary won over Obama by 214,764 votes
Hillary 54.7% to Obama 45.3%. Big win no doubt
Based on some sites that correctly include the registered voters of Florida and Michigan , they are showing Hillary LEADING the popular vote count.
Now the Obamabots have been bragging for weeks about this popular vote , but now that some sites show Hillary leading the popular vote count , where are the Obambots ? silence.
Ron at 729
You don’t need a zipper when you’ve got velcro.
Obambots can not handle the truth. Like Obama , live in fantasyland.
But some of those TV interviews in Penns showed in his desperation to win Penns. showed him for what he is a Pollie who lie but in his case he has got no ‘ticker’ either as the ABC debate showed & the Repugs will re-air
Wasn’t HRC supposed to win by 15% to 20%?
Less than 10% ddn’t quite kill her off and just keeps her in the game. She lead by 20% at one stage which indicates a lot of people are changing their minds fast. Probably why Obama leads her on the national polls by a wide margin.
And me? I don’t really care who wins as I don’t see any difference to Australia, except maybe Obama’s indication to use Gore on Climate Change. In fact I think (hope?) the days of Bush type unilateral attacking of countries are over, if not for the only reason is that it will ensure them only one term. Though HRC silly statement about Iran doesn’t help much.
I am just fascinated that of the three candidates for the most powerful job 2 have terrible public speaking skills and can simply tell bald face lies in public without consequences. Though being articulate doesn’t mean people have any ability beyond that either.
Lets face it – if Bush was considered good enough to win two terms then anybody has the capacity for the job.
Kina #732
How are you
am waiting for my last taxi service job (kids) for nite, hope u don’t have them
Kevin07 was also supposed to win by a big margin a week out also but Obama like Howard did in the last campaign week used disgraceful fear on the voters.
Obama is the most dangerous liar as he is a good public speaker making it more difficult to pick his lies but all 3 lie & get away with it
The biggest puzzle Kina is the choice. Hillary is ‘known’ & for many years, her good & bad points are public as are her policys. Obama is ‘unknown’ and there’ not alot of time to find out what he really is. he promises a new style of politics
& the disallusioned love it but he has never defined in praticale term what this is
and none of his supporters can either. To me its political ‘fluff’
Turning worm #689
you are supporting Obama’s ‘right’ wing based healthcare plan.It contains no cost committment what a family will pay net per week. Instead Obama will give subsidies on one hand & Insurance Co premiums will rise on the other hand being a free market (he is not capping premiums) , meaning the premiums are still unaffordable , so people won’t buy the Insurance. Obama says its people choice to buy or not. Combine all 3 points together and you’ve got John Howard policy.
No surprise the Insurance Industry support him over Hillary, & Edwards doesn’t.
But by all mans continue to believe what Obama’s site con says.
Ah finally , the last taxi call is booked and Obambots a parting joy,
there you been all night chrping away like love sick petals pretending oblivious that Hillary’s Penns. 10% win had to be a dream cause you just clouldn’t talk about it. But there are darker clouds to come from Pennsylvania we had the debate aired Nationally & Obama no ticker was there for the Repugs computer.
But above all , Hillary’s ads he cann’t handle the heat & the sub test of the elitist are making that image tarnished by the day and McCain just can not believe his luck that the spadework is being done…and for free
Makes one chortle and if only obama would concede in the partys interests
Superdelegate Wu Backs Obama In Oregon
http://www.kptv.com/politics/15978606/detail.html
Just as a reference point – that brings the Clinton super lead down to 22 and the end-game number down to just 34 more supers.
‘Whad’ya mean THAT’s the point?’ Rondabout IED ahead Ferny…pal sunshine
From our friends at the Wahington Post …
For anyone tracking the Hillary Death Watch – this is a must see.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2007/11/14/VI2007111401120.html
If you don’t feel for the guy your just not human.
Bongiorno Bludgers,
Pancho at 718 already posted this link last night, jv plugged it at 719, Robert philosophised about it at 720, Kirri endorsed it at 722, but just in case you missed it, especially if you dig the delivery of Stewart and Colbert and go woozy at the wit of their writers, then the link below is de rigeur viewing for fans of The Kid.
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/74741/0676/39/502361
Why bother with dead trees and lead (Pb) on your pinkies when you can get inter-tube stuff this good with your chardonnay hangover and morning latte?
It’s totally FUHRC!
All the hoopla, razzamatazz, pomp and palaver ain’t gon’ save her sorry ass now.
Hey, Brutusina, it’s the democracy, stoopid!
And Catrina, that Dana Milbank vid is a ripper too. His studied “world weary” tone is reminiscent of Stephen Wright.
There was a prof. from Melbourne on LNL yesterday who is an unabashed debunker of Einsteinian Time theory which has been a bulwark of “orthodox” Physics for the last century or so. He has been brutally sent to Coventry by most of the scientific establishment and many of his former colleagues no longer return his calls, however, he still has a job at his alma mater.
Brave Beltway Brutusina is attempting to do something similar with The Queen of the Sciences, Mathematics, in order to secure vaingloriously, narcissistically or any which way she may the Dem nomination. Besides, the delegate and popular vote figures are expressed in “Arabic Numerals”, so she is perfectly within her rights to crunch them any which way she freakin’-well pleases! Right?
Damned straight!!
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/04/pennsylvania-win-makes-clinton.html
Thurs, April 24: L’Arsoniste Culinaire.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AjfChW8jw6gLzwpH_5ZL6.EV2r8F
Thurs April 24:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Ak0UaugPud16ASquGCd9mmZR_b4F
Thurs. April 24:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=A0WTUeB4EhFI9rwAmCEDwLAF
Ecky, that’s too cruel:
Hey, Brutusina, it’s the democracy, stoopid!
…but it’s very funny!
Turning Bill (I went to Beaver Falls!) Clinton’s immortal line around so it spits in her face like a cobra on meth!
Ouch-a-roony!
I’m so sure that the remaining Supers are just so excited to see Hillary start channeling Rumsfeld,Cheney, Wolfowitz,Perle,Feith, McCain et al. They must be over the freakin’ moon that one of their own candidates for Prez has just morphed into Karl Rove’s attack Alien.
Hate to brag, but I did rahter incline to the position that Hillary Rodham Clinton would become the Alien mother, (that’s ‘mother’ as shorthand in this case!), and so far, she has not disappointed.
Latest figures from Dept of State
http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ElectionsInformation.aspx?FunctionID=13&ElectionID=27&OfficeID=1
9,263 out of 9,264 Districts (99.99%) Reporting Statewide
(My calculated percentage to 3 decimal places)
Obama 1,037,953 45.447%
Clinton 1,245,911 54.553%
Margin to Clinton: 9.106%
Rounded to 1 decimal place: 9.1%
Morning all.
Some movements:
Since the PA primary Sportingbet has moved Obama in from $1.95 to $1.90 and Hillary has moved from $6.00 to … umm … $6.00.
Pretty much a holding pattern there.
RCP has moved Clinton’s lead in Indiana from 2.2 (where it’s ben for a couple of weeks) to 1.2 today.
Obama is just like George McGovern and against a Eisenhower like candidate (McCain) he could well put off many voters in the General Election with his liberal support base.
“At the New Republic, John Judis is also an Obama skeptic, writing that if you “look at Obama’s vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the ’70s and ’80s, led by college students and minorities. In Pennsylvania, Obama did best in college towns (60 to 40 percent in Penn State’s Centre County) and in heavily black areas like Philadelphia.”
The problem with this coalition — its “ideology is very liberal. Whereas in the first primaries and caucuses, Obama benefited from being seen as middle-of-the-road or even conservative, he is now receiving his strongest support from voters who see themselves as ‘very liberal.’ In Pennsylvania, he defeated Clinton among ‘very liberal’ voters by 55 to 45 percent, but lost ’somewhat conservative’ voters by 53 to 47 percent and moderates by 60 to 40 percent.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/04/is-obama-mcgove.html
Glen
#746
the “very liberal’ 55 %vote you quoted Obama achieved in Penns.contains the chardonnay politically empty headed bloc who are his main supporters here.
From the Wall St Journal
“Other than ensuring the Greatest Show on Earth will continue, does it matter that Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama Tuesday in Pennsylvania by nine-plus points? Barack Obama is the nominee.
No matter how many kicks the rest of us find in such famously fun primary states as Indiana and South Dakota, it’s going to be McCain versus Obama in 2008.”
Here’s why:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899521565139921.html?mod=todays_columnists
745
Ferny Grover
So Pennslyvania ‘turned the tide’ for Hillary, huh?
Oh well, to live in hope is audacious, I suppose.
Meanwhile, the TV ad that McCain told Repuglies they couldn’t air, is now getting a flogging in the MSM, of course. So muck will out, as grandma used to say.
It attacks Obama of course (they clearly are under no cloud of audacious hope that they will get Hillary to clobber!) and Obama’s people have simply said that puts and end to McCain’s claim to run a ‘clean’ campaign.
I can’t wait for Hillary to get out the way.
747
Ron
More Ron:
“the “very liberal’ 55 %vote you quoted Obama achieved in Penns.contains the chardonnay politically empty headed bloc who are his main supporters here.”
…that sir, is an insult to the majority of US Democrats who have voted for Obama, and insult to Super Delegates who have endorsed him, and an insult to the bloggers here.
Stick to your knitting Ron.
Yep KR, when it comes to Hillary’s tide-turning capability, King Kanute springs to mind.
I repeat:
Andrew Says:
April 24th, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Questions for Hillary fans eg. Finns:
If Obama wins the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, do you still expect the SDs to favour Clinton??
Do you believe there would be a backlash from Democrat supporters if this happened?
Come on, you can do it
748
Ferny Grover
Murdoch slipping the blade in?
It’s over.
But she must drag herself wounded to the conclusion, that’s what Alien muthas do! LOL
Yep KR, it’s such a far left liberal rag that Wall St Journal. And those SDs who supported Obama last Friday, Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia and David Boren of Oklahoma – clearly ignorant loathing lefties too. I mean, what do they believe in? Whad’ya mean they’re from the conservative end of the Party?
“Both are what some of us nostalgically call Serious Democrats. They represent what the party was, but is no more: sensible on national security, spending and middle-class values. Obama receiving their imprimatur is like hands reaching out from the graves of FDR, JFK and LBJ to announce: “Enough is enough. This man is your nominee. Go forth and fight with the Republicans.” Make no mistake: Superdelegates with sway took notice.” (From the above)
KR I think you reference to Hillary as an Alien muthas is crude and unnecessary as are the brutusina references by others.
That being said, Hillary and her supporters remind me so much of Howard and his supporters last year- the numbers were never in their favour, yet they closed their eyes and chanted- we’re gonna win, we’re gonna win. Fairytale stuff. Just wish more SDs would get off the fence
And Hillary keeps screaming that Obama can’t beat McCain!!
If Hillary is right and he can’t beat McCain – but he CAN beat Hillary…..
…kinda makes ya wonder what that says about Hillary.
Glen
further on that voter breakup you supplied
Obama the audacity of hypocritical hope for the snouted wannabe gentry
The only difference between the Toorak rich who support the Liberals and the elitist set who support Obama is the former are often clever whilst the latter need to admire each other to self delude they are,
and so the word ‘policy’ is foreign so they cann’t articulate any
Ron, that chip on your shoulder is getting bigger by the day and it’s beginning to control you. Have a read back at how increasingly rude your posts are, take a deep breath, and try and regain some civility.
From CNN- Is Clinton deluded??. Pertient point about Hillary stating that she has won the states you need in a general election- Obama would beat McCain in those states too.
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/04/24/cafferty.file.4.24.cnn
I’ve worked out a solution- Hillary has more pledged delegates than McCain- can she be the REPUBLICAN nominee???!!!
Well she’s certainly been auditioning for that position Andrew
755
Andrew
It’s merely badinage Andrew, and goes back some months when we were discussing what Hillary would look like when the light faded and the soundtrack started to get eery, and our hearts start thumpin’…
If I was to call other posters part of the “chardonnay politically empty headed bloc” for example, then that would be a direct insult, and outside the edicts of our Blogmaster. But that’s way too vacuous a comment for me, or most of the bloggers here to make, eh?
759
Andrew
I suggested the same thing yesterday! LOL
Maybe Macca and Hilly could be running mates?
A match made in hell.
And Lieberman could conduct the marriage ceremony.
Perfect!
I sit here in my innercity abode here in elitist St Albans, a latte by my side and a chardonnay in the fridge, and was quite happy with my elitist life until I heard a bitter whinging voice talking about “wannabe gentry”. Must contact security, get them to fix the gate.
754
Ferny Grover
Ha! When the hippy/commie rag the Wall Street Journal rates your chances as…nup, hold that, gives you no chance, then, ipso facto, you have no chance.
Rupert has spoken, make no mistake, and Rupert gets what Rupert wants (except for $30/barrel crude oil, after the great Mesopotamia adventure of Biggles Bush and his merry band of Neoconstructs)
The Wall Street journal! For cryin’ out loud, who reads that liberal muck?
763
Robert Bollard
Yeah, always had you pegged for a chardonnay charlie, a hooray henry, an elitist airhead and one of those liberal landed gentry. LOL
764 KR
The WSJ was true to form reducing everything down to the greenback:
“The biggest event was the Clinton Abandonment. In a campaign of surprises, none has been more breathtaking than the falling away of Clinton supporters, loyalists . . . and friends. Why?
Money. Barack Obama’s mystical pull on people is nice, but nice in modern politics comes after money. Once Barack proved conclusively that he could raise big-time cash, the Clintons’ strongest tie to their machine began to unravel. Today he’s got $42 million banked. She’s got a few million north of nothing.
But it’s more than that. Barack Obama’s Web-based fund-raising apparatus is, if one may say so, respectable. The Clintons’ “donor base” has been something else.”
Morning all-
have to say I at least want some credit in the upcoming film for the original contribution re: alien abductions. Or a starrtng role (can I be Monica??).
766
Ferny Grover
That’s classic! LOL
But hate to say, that’s what I’ve been saying, she’ll eventually suffocate, die for a lack of oxygen, which is, should I remind the ‘ignorant loathing lefties’:
O2=$
…so nice to have the WSJ explain the facts of life, eh?
Add to this the implosion of the Repblicans (as in Sidney Blumenthal’s thesis, and elsewhere) and we have a perfect storm in US politics. If EVER, a woman or a black could take the Whitehouse, this year is it.
Unfortunately, the woman brings dynastic baggage and a lot of bad memories to the party, while the fresh faced kid, although a tint too far for some, has the magic, the smarts, the cojones and the bucks.
This is gunna be a fascinating year!
Pass the popcorn…
It’s sorta heartening in a disheartening sorta way, to see James Carville and Bill Richardson struggling as much with this thing as we seem to be here.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/04/23/lkl.highlights.cnn
I actually dont think Hillary is deluded. Surely she is intelligent enough to count. I think she is hoping that Obama will do something crazy before the SDs commit.
And why wont the SDs commit? Surely they can see the math, and the damage that the ongoing battle could do. Is it loyalty to the Clintons??
And another thing about that RCP average giving the lead to Clinton by a slim 1.2. This average includes a poll by surveyUSA which gave Clinton a 16 point lead. On all the evidence it’s an outlier. Pretty much all other polls give the lead to Obama.
767 Geez Jen, do you really want to shag Bill????
I mean GIRL! If things are that bad I’ll give you my phone number
Gotta go, but here’s a good read:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/04/25/campaigns/
…to keep your juices flowing until I get back!
(And Jen, you can do Rippley, but can you hold a chardonnay at the same time?)
Ferny- he did not have sexual relations with that woman.
Thanks for the offer though.
Ah, of Course Jen…
…it was the cigar that did it!
And a bit of trivia….
Noone knows why Indiana is called the ‘Hoosier’ State.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoosier
Exactly Ferny. Trust it wsa unlit.
Can you honestly imagine the reality of those 2 back in the Whitehouse. Tawdry, tired cliche they are. I reckon the dawning reality of what it would really mean to have Billary back in the Whitehouse may be enough to put off lots of voters, independently of anything Obama is offering (which happens to be looking pretty good).
it would be like getting Bob and Blanche back. Makes the skin crawl really. although I think both Bob and Bill did a pretty good job at the time, you can never go backwards in politics.
No you can’t Jen…but some folk are hoping they can turn back time and that Bill’s return will transport them in a tardis to the much safer 90’s.
Most others just remember the national embarrassment of his presidency and the fact that he lost the Dems control of Congress for the first time in memory.
Here’s a letter Obama should read re the blue-collar vote:
http://letters.salon.com/opinion/walsh/election_2008/2008/04/23/penn_wrap/permalink/5fc17d27bfb510d4e51c0f2eb48141d0.html
As Rudd found out early, it’s the kitchen table economics that matters most to these folks.
wasn’t it on Bill’s watch that al Queda got ready for 9/11 while the US “intelligence” agencies and ignored the info coming their way?
let’s not go back.
Umm….yeah it was Jen. It’s scarey looking back.
Let’s make a better job of the future.
Good Post FG,
“Barack, Get Real With The Real Masses, Old Farts, Union Guys and the Soccer Moms, Black and White”.
Is this a “Honey, I forgot to nurture the demographics that could get me elected moment?”
It’s pretty much what the Clinton supporters have proven in all the key swing States to date. Is there a dawning reality that Obama does not have the mojo or momentum to win in November?
Oh he’s going to win in November GG.
I liked the honesty of the letter. The ‘vision thing’ is important. Obama inspires folk to believe that politics and government can be done better than it has been. If there is a weakness in the campaign to date, it’s in explaining the kitchen table economics. It’s not about Hillary-type pandering. As the letter said:
“You can certainly show your Alpha credentials better than Miss Goodie Two Shoes with her simulated toughness.”
Leadership is about facing up to an honest appraisal of why you lost. No excuses, no finger-pointing or talking about bad demographics or your opponent’s gutter tactics. If you’ve got character, you’ll look in the mirror, accept responsibility and do something about it. I think the letter gives some pointers as to how.
Obama has character to burn – so he will. Which is why he’ll win.
Well…..that and the mathematics of course.
Oh, and for an indicator of how the nation (as distinct from just PA) feels about the contest – the RCP national average has Obama 9.6 ahead of Hillary. It was 7.7 a bit over a week ago and it did creep up to just over 10 on Tuesday before settling where it is now.
Bring on those Hoosiers and North Carolinians!
785
Ferny Grover
Did you notice the distribution of those polls Ferny?
Talk about wild! They range from a low of 3% to a high of 19%!
4 of 7 polls are 10% or greater,
the other three: 7/5/3 percent.
Someone is wrong by a lot!
Yep KR…and despite that 19% poll, Hillary can still only manage an average lead of 1.2.
What’s that….way off in the distance? I’m sure it’s a bell tolling.
Oops…sorry KR, I’m talking about the Indiana polls. The national ones are all over the place and continuing to bounce around.
Not sure why
But their is one thing they all have in common KR…
Hillary is looking at The Kid’s heels.
786 KR
with the U.S. polls, there are distinct trends.
I don’t know whether it is partisan polling or different demographics or weighting but:
Gallup seems neutral
Rasmussen is clearly pro Republican.
Survey USA is clearly pro Hillary
MSNBC are clearly pro Obama
FG,
I love your mind set that allows passionate revisionism, paradigm shift and lingual gymnastics. Only with these special interpretive skills, a “rusted on” pointing out a fairly serious Obama “Character” deficiency can somehow be construed as a positive.
The headline summed up the problem Obama faces. If you want to focus on waffle and Clinton abuse then, who I am to stop you.
The issue for Obama is now that he knows he is unelectable by a substantial proportion of his own Party base, what does he do next?
It’s just so unfair….
“Not to mention the real reason a Clinton comeback won’t happen: Superdelegates still aren’t endorsing her. Since her win in Pennsylvania, Obama has announced three super endorsements; Clinton has announced one. Clinton’s new friend is Rep. John Tanner of Tennessee, a state she won easily. Obama’s three are from Nebraska (a state he won), Oklahoma (where Clinton destroyed him), and Oregon (which hasn’t even voted yet). Adding one new superdelegate and a pile of cash does not turn the tide. Quantitatively and qualitatively, Obama still has the winning hand.”
Andrew @ 770
“And why wont the SDs commit? Surely they can see the math, and the damage that the ongoing battle could do. Is it loyalty to the Clintons??”
I just think it’s risk aversion. A SD who waits till the pledged delegate race is certainly decided, and then supports the candidate who wins on delegates (and votes), won’t get into too much trouble in November, even if the Dems lose. A SD who chooses early is more likely to stand accused of unfairly taking sides, or whatever.
Some of them are comfortable to stick out their necks in this way, but in any large organisation there are always plenty of people who take the lowest risk path in any situation. Lowest risk to themselves, that is.
Andrew- I reckon taking on the Clintons would be a fairly dangerous pastime. Safety in numbers and all that.
Jen,
Good point, pretty much all successful politicians have a vindictive streak. And the Clintons???
GG Read my post again and tell me where there is Clinton abuse. I specifically said that Obama must not so that but focus on why he lost in PA.
On the other side if – “The issue for Obama is now that he knows he is unelectable by a substantial proportion of his own Party base, what does he do next?” – is not “passionate revisionism, paradigm shift and lingual gymnastics”, I don’t know what is.
You still can’t explain why, if Obama is so unelectable, he is still thrashing Hillary.
The narrative will all change, of course, after Obama wins easily in NC, and more modestly in Indiana
You know that things are going your way when the architect of the Republican Third Reich, Karl Rove himself, attacks you whilst hardly mentioning Hillary Clinton’s innumerbale negatives (except to state they are big and getting bigger).
No sireee, Turd Blossom himself (Andrew Alert: that’s GWB’s pet name for him!) goes for Obama’s jugular in no uncertain terms:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120899654405739949.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
…and even concludes:
Mr. Obama is near victory in the Democratic contest, but it is time for him to reset, freshen his message and say something new. His conduct in the last several weeks raises questions about whether, for all his talents, he is ready to be president.
…thanks for that Karl, your personal suggestions are obviously given in completely non-partisan fashion, NOT!
Make no doubt, the Republicans can see Obama coming at them, it’s all over the rightwing press and blogosphere, and if they really thought he was the most easily beaten, they’d be cheering him on, NOT attacking him relentlessly.
Bring it on Karl, bring it on!
We all know that the MSM has the memory of a goldfish. It’s focus is invariably on the present – which is why the narrative is all RA-RA Hillary right bow, but will change after NC. here’s what the Hillary Deathwatch has to say:
“Right now, the Clinton Kool-Aid is on tap, and the media are doing keg stands. The same writers who once said Clinton was doomed are now ignoring the fact that the math is even more oppressive for Clinton. Obama will likely need to convince 25 percent to 35 percent of the about 300 uncommitted superdelegates to support him, and he will reach the 2,024 delegates needed to become the nominee. Put another way, Clinton needs to convince 65 percent to 75 percent of them to vote for her. That’s 200 elected officials and party bigwigs she needs to convince not to support the guy who has the most pledged delegates. Moreover, she won’t win the popular vote if Obama wins North Carolina—the biggest state remaining—by a blowout margin (as polls suggest he will).”
http://www.slate.com/id/2189890/
798
Kirribilli Removals
I’ll re-phrase that before the usual suspects get a hot flush:
The Repblicans are dismissing Clinton, ie they are not aiming at her because they don’t think she will win. They are attacking the frontrunner who is almost certain to take the nomination,
If the Republicans thought Hillary was going to win, they’d be attacking her far more than they are now.
The Pastor returns. The “GodDamned” Pastor was interviewed by the PBS. He was unrepentant about his own diatribes. When asked what he thinks of Obama’s Race speech that “disowned” his diatribes. He simply said Obama is a politician and he has to say whatever he has to say as politician. Yes, we know Obama is a politician that will do anything to get elected, including throwing his own grandma under the bus.
The timing of his return to public eye is a curious one. After big loss in Penn and crucial primaries in Indiana Jones and Sweet Carolina. It will only serve to put the focus back on the Pastorgate for Obama on the question of why he stuck with the Pastor for 20 years. Methinks this is the way the Pastor shows his “unhappiness” for what Obama did to him after all these years of looking after Obama and his family.
Yeah, Karlie, bring it on, baby.
Obi is coming
And he will not rest
Till your country is free!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pDE9U0j_gns
799
Ferny Grover
The MSM do not report, they stand around a dogfight and chant loudly to keep it going.
They do however put GOP talking points into the echo chamber and call them ‘news’, so expect this “Obama is the weakest candidate in the fall” to get endless airing, in all the usual quarters.
Trouble is, if this was a demonstrable, numerical fact, (which it almost certianly IS NOT), then how come the best and brightest of the Democratic party are migrating to the edge of the cliff with him?
Because they most certainly think the opposite, is the obvious answer, and they’re closer to the polls and the electorate than we are.
Hillary has demonstrated negatives in poll after poll, which is only trending in ONE direction. Supers see that, and know she cannot counter that trend. If anything she’s pouring fuel on the fire with bomb Iran ravings.
In a country that’s overwhelming fed up with the lies and the endless war it engendered, that was a very dumb_thing for her to say. No matter how you parse it, it fails the smell test, even as a prop for defying the “Dems are weak on national security” mantra since Reagan. It was vile, bottom of the barrell stuff, and will only get more movement away from her. If Republicans like that kind of talk, they’ve got McCain. Independents: McCain. Democrats? They’ve got Obama, who they know will take US foreign policy away from the unmitigated disaster it has become under the end of the Republican hegemony.
KR, I remember a few years ago taking part in a management seminar designed to equip us to deal with the media. Our CEO invited some well known journos to inform us on the facts of MSM life. They included this gem:
“You’ve got to get rid of the silly idea that the media is interested in reporting facts. We’re interested in controversy, and if there is no controversy, we’ll stir some up.”
This primary contest must be giving them endless orgasms.
802
Enemy Combatant
A turkey!
Man, he’s funny, and so spot on!
804
Ferny Grover
Ain’t that the truth!
Meanwhile, in grown up land:
McCain wants to lock in place Bush’s $350 billion of tax cuts…and then cut another $300 billion more. Here at The Daily Reckoning headquarters we’ve never met a tax cut we didn’t like. But it’s the other side of the ledger than concerns us. If revenues go down, how would McCain pay for all those spiffy projects – mortgage rescues, student loan bail-outs, the never-ending war in Iraq, bombing Iran…not to mention all the regular giveaways to America’s seniors, poor, cripples, veterans, bankers, and feeble-minded citizens?
The idea, put forward by Arthur Laffer and the Reagan crew, was that lower tax rates would stimulate economic activity and, ergo, more tax revenue to the government. But now, McCain’s top economist – Douglas Holtz-Eakin – says the estimates of increased tax revenue as a result of lower rates were “overblown.” As director of the Congressional Budget Office, he admitted to Congress that a “dynamic analysis” of tax cuts (taking into account the likely positive effect of cuts on economic activity) made essentially no difference to the outcome. Conclusion: if you cut taxes…you also must cut spending…or you’ll find yourself in the hole.
The Bush Administration has worked the United States into the biggest hole ever. Like Diocletian, Septimius Severus and Caracalla, the next president will face the consequences of overreach…inflation, budget deficits, and rapidly expanding debt.
…and that’s going to be one hell of an issue for President Obama, eh?
Link for above:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com/
…always a few good reads in there every day.
Pancho at 624, superb Nation essay on DLC. Certainly focused the MIC-smitten mongrels in their true light.
Kirri at 684, your supposition of Joey “The Rat” Lieberman as Mc Bombsters running mate is not as silly as some might think, especially after his recent spot of boo-boo corrections while standing behind the silly old bastard in Mesopotamia during media grabs.
Ferny at 748 that WSJ piece, hardly a noted forum for ratbag raving pinko lefties, as others have indeed mentioned, was a Bobby Dazzler! Especially this bit:
“I believe the cement set around the Clinton coffin last Friday. The Obama campaign announced it had received the support of former Sens. Sam Nunn of Georgia and David Boren of Oklahoma.
Both are what some of us nostalgically call Serious Democrats. They represent what the party was, but is no more: sensible on national security, spending and middle-class values. Obama receiving their imprimatur is like hands reaching out from the graves of FDR, JFK and LBJ to announce: “Enough is enough. This man is your nominee. Go forth and fight with the Republicans.” Make no mistake: Superdelegates with sway took notice.”
Of course we all remember how Citizen Rupert first turned his tabloid The Terrorgraph against El Rodente is the lead up to last Nov., when mortgagees were going bust in western Sydney marginals with the memorable front page photo of Rat Features is his track suit, hang-dog and distracted as he toddled past The Sydney harbour bridge with the caption:
“This Man Could Lose His House”
And about a year ago Rupe was all over Brutusina (sorry Andrew) with a well publicized fund raiser in Noo York City. My, my, how times have changed. Rupe is the kind of a guy who doesn’t care to be associated with losers.
Afterall, he’s an American now.
FG, no doubt. The stats are against Hillary, but the longer the primary continues, the more controversy the media is able to whip up, hence why they are now pushing the Hillary bandwagon. It won’t last.
Unfortunately, the impression from some parts of the media that there is still a contest between Obama and Hillary has sucked in some of the bloggers here, still grasping at any reports, just anything to suggest that Hillary will pull off the needed miracle.
KR, exactly. And let’s not forget that Republicans have been urging their own to vote for Hillary in the primaries. They would much prefer to be up against Hillary than Obama.
“And let’s not forget that Republicans have been urging their own to vote for Hillary in the primaries. They would much prefer to be up against Hillary than Obama.”
Absolutement, Noocat.
Meanwhile in grown up land:
Yale University economist Robert Shiller, pioneer of Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller home-price index, said there’s a good chance housing prices will fall further than the 30% drop in the historic depression of the 1930s. Home prices nationwide already have dropped 15% since their peak in 2006, he said.
…and if anyone does not who Robert Schiller is, then they’ve not being paying attention to the US economy for the last decade! LOL
He goes on to say, if some things go badly, then it could excede 30%.
ouch!
Meanwhile, in foreclosure land, some people are sabotaging their houses as they get forced out, like dumping concrete in the plumbing etc. There are an esitmated couple of million of these households coming down the pike, so plumbers should do well when the whole thing turns around in a few years time.
Spot the slight redundacy in the last post, and send to:
Kirribilli Removals
C/O Pollbludgers
Neatest correctest entry wins the memoirs of Hillary Rodham Clinton: “Under Fire: A Bosnia Fanatasy where the First Lady took the heat for you schmucks” in hardback, glossy pages, and a stamped envelope to HRC for your personal donation.
KR at 813
will fall further than – it could exceed
do I win?
814
Catrina
You win by default Catrina, being the sole contestant! (It’s called “oing a McCain”, by the way, when you’re up against Huckleberries and Romormons and St Pauline Phantasists)
“doing a McCain”
Andrew at 755, perhaps this will place Beltway Brutusina’s “crude and unnecessary” historical sobriquet, as you term it, in greater perspective for you.
“The Clintons know that she can’t win this. But they’re hell-bound to make it impossible for Obama to win.”
– House Democratic Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), quoted by Reuters, saying that many African-Americans believe the Clintons are trying to derail Obama and pave the way for her to make another White House run in 2012.
http://politicalwire.com/
Reasonable people might interpret this narcissistic behavior as stabbing your own party in the back. There are those amongst us who have a great deal of faith in reasonable people:)
————————-
Redundancy: more than just job loss or fluffy prose; for some, a way of life!
And Kirri, handy serving suggestion for the back sleeve blurb of your upcoming book.
“Hillary is total Babe: she takes heat, she packs heat, and she’ll bring it on bigtime. ‘Specially if you’re fool enough to mess with her!”
An interesting turn of the worm. According to Reuters [1] that nasty Obama/Wright add by the Republicans has been pulled.
In other news [2] – WRAL-TV, the CBS affiliate in the “Triangle” region of Raleigh, Durham and Fayetteville, has officially rejected the ad. WTVD, the ABC outlet in that same media market, is also saying they haven’t been asked to run the ad but would have reservations about doing so (wow – no surprises there).
[1] http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2429689820080424
[2] http://www.newsobserver.com/politics/story/1048412.html
818
Catrina
As Oscar Wilde once said, there’s only one thing worse than being talked about, and that’s not being talked about.
It hardly matters when the MSM are covering this bit of ‘news’, does it?
KR at 819
What is interesting is the the Elephant has folded (for the moment).
I figured that John and the Rupugs were just playing a game. I didn’t think the Repugs would duck this one this soon.
But what do I know – after all I’m blonde!
And here’s a NYT’s headline:
Using New Math, Clinton Contends She’s Ahead
…and that commie lefty liberal rag endorsed her! LOL
But it’s a revelation, that after all this nonsense about counting delegates, that suddenly HRC, by including votes in contests that were not only NOT formal, but didn’t even have the frontrunner on the ticket (Michigan), pulls out the abbacus and figures she’s ahead!
The laughter you hear is the politcally numerate and the morally rectitudenal in paroxysms at the sheer audacity of her post factual conjuring.
Every team that’s ever lost would love her assumed power to simply re-write the rules, but it only works in the shadowy recesses of politics, where perception is massaged into reality on a regual basis.
But not this time, Hillary.
Catrina, the fact that the Republicans were planning to screen an anti-Obama ad in North Carolina ahead of the Democrat primary just goes to show they are worried about Obama winning the nomination.
For those who still think that Hillary is more electable than Obama should go and tell the Republicans, because clearly they don’t think so.
#823
But why drop the add?
1. Because McCain has pull in the partly (I don’t think so)
2. Because of potential blow-back (which I see as a possible scenario) and that maybe the Rupubs just ain’t as stupid as Hilary wants us to believe.
3. The Republican Party has lost its nerve (doubtful)
4. They are tracking PB and have lost conciousness after reading and attempting to assimilate #723, #727, #728, #729, #731, #733, #734, #735, #747, #757 (unlikely – too much overhead)
OMG, are they still banging on about Hillary winning the nomination?
Someone needs to give these people a remedial maths class.
And as previously stated, she needs a wooden stake.
Catrina@#824
re point 4.
be careful, or you may find that you get every one of those posts re explained.
In immense and incomprehensible detail.
Today , an Australian memory.
the song , and the band played waltz sing matilda
to the 89 thousand , at the m c g it was played ,
and the silence of all as the message the call
our patriot day , our aussies to thank and remember,
they came the heroes the diggers in cars driven by
as a footy crowd as one stood and cheered ,
the salute and the stirring buglar the last post
uniquely Australian and no murmur was heard,
the anthem to play and then the footy begins
the roar of delight but respect has been shown,
at game end , my family , the working masses and
the deserving wealthy disband with joy or despair,
a game won or lost but all free in the lucky country
Yet Obama , Hillary & McCain are all unanimous and genuinely believe the US of A is definitively the greatest Country on earth , so are any of them really clever
#827 Ron says:
“Yet Obama , Hillary & McCain are all unanimous and genuinely believe the US of A is definitively the greatest Country on earth , so are any of them really clever”
Not clever just biased. Australia is the best
Well, the Obama team have certainly been busy convincing each other their champion will win the day. But, the more they chatter, the less certain they become.
Of course the cheer leader is KR as he blogs to himself, laughs at his own jokes and generally cuts and pastes other opinions as his own.
Here is an appropriate video with KR playing all the parts.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GaQX9YuFaj0&feature=related
House Democratic Whip James Clyburn (D-SC), quoted by Reuters, saying that many African-Americans believe the Clintons are trying to derail Obama and pave the way for her to make another White House run in 2012.
If Obama wins the presidency in Nov, and doesn’t completely stuff it up, and wants to run for a second term, then the 2012 Democratic nomination is his for the taking. Hillary would have no chance whatsoever in those circumstances, and would be very foolish to even try. The earliest she could realistically try again is 2016, but she would be 68 by then, so if she doesn’t get it this time round then it is basically over for her presidential aspirations. And she knows it.
If Obama wins the presidency in Nov, and doesn’t completely stuff it up,
And let’s face it, coming in straight after Dubya’s complete f**k-up would make anybody look good in comparison.
#829 – GG – [Well, the Obama team have certainly been busy convincing each other] – As Mark Latham would have called it, more of “A Conga Line of Suckholes”
821
Catrina
So are my children, but I don’t hold it against them, as they inherit it mostly from their mother! LOL
Besides, they are boys.
(I’m not to supposed to laugh at my own comments under Order 829, apparently! LOL)
But really, when you see injunctions that assinine it’s hard not to! LOL
I’ve not followed the advert story in great detail Catrina, so if you can please, can you give a short and concise trajectory of this Republican masterpiece?
Cheers.
Oh dear, I feel an edict coming on! The children are getting out of the playpen and doing naughty things with brown stuff again!
But more seriously, who thinks the Obama campaign will go into high testosterone mode, and who thinks he’ll just play out the clock and leave the low blows until McCain?
We could start a book on that!
827
Ron
Congratulations Ron, for the longest sentence in verse ever penned, the question sans question mark, and the fine patriotic sentiment.
It’s unequalled, I’m sure, anywhere.
Just Me
I agree, I don’t think Hilary would have a chance in 2012 if Obama wins in November. If he wins, the black JFK would be likely to be effectly unoppsed in the primaries in 2012.
I thnk Clinton’s back-up plan is to injure Obama sufficiently that he fails in November and is thus beatable or not even running in 2012.
It speaks volumes that she is prepared to shred her own party’s chances to keep her ambitions alive.
I’m one who, at times, has trouble reading straightforward prose. Ron’s syntax-free style is too much for my poor scrambled brain to bother with…
Speaking of funny, as we were, how come Hillary didn’t threaten to nuke Syria too?
OK, you might scratch your head, and ask when did Syria get a nuke to attack Israel with to be rewarded with annihilation by Hillary?
And of course the answer would be, they haven’t. (Nor has Iran, but that didn’t stop her!) In fact they haven’t even got a reactor.
Oh, but didn’t Israel just bomb their ‘reactor’?
If you believe anything that comes out the Likud/Washington party anymore, then yep, that’s what it was!
This gets wieider and weirder, just when you think it could NOT possibly get any weirder.
KR said
“who thinks the Obama campaign will go into high testosterone mode, and who thinks he’ll just play out the clock”
I think run the clock down. No point in using your negative nukes on a beaten opponent.
I think he knows that Hiliary is beaten and she is just swinging wildly in the hope of getting a lucky punch in. I’d expect him to run an expensive but largely boring campain over the next couple of weeks.
The Guy Who Got Where He Is Only Because He’s Black:
Guns? I wish I had a gun! Ever run out of truffle oil before a dinner party and have to go to Whole Foods on a weekend? It’ll make you want to spread a little buckshot around, that’s for sure.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/24/opinion/24whitehead.html?em&ex=1209268800&en=ffd6b0f6a393d294&ei=5087
839
WorkToRule
yeah, it’s hard to imagine him tarnishing his lustre with trashy gutter stuff but the tattoo set are never going to go for him if he isn’t prepared to mudwrestle the ‘lady’.
But on balance, I suspect they’ve done the numbers and realise they’d lose more than they could potentially gain.
So yes, I’m with you on that one.
836
WorkToRule
Hmm, except if she trashes the kid she will NOT have a future in the Democratic party. It’s a fine line, and if she continues down that path the Supers will just shut her out pronto.
Of course, she may well think she can, but my gut feeling is she’d be less than smart to pursue that strategy.
She can, of course, go join Joe Lieberman’s party! LOL
KR @ 840…”The Guy…He’s Black.” Now there are some clever observations, well put together using great synntax. Thanks for the link, KR.
imho, Clinton sees the whole contest as an arm-wrestle. It’s a one-to-one thing. If you don’t give in, you still have a chance. And since it’s only about winning or losing, you don’t worry about the party or the other guy. You just make sure you don’t give in until your elbow’s torn to apart.
843
blindoptimist
Yeah, communication goes much better with syntax! (I ALWAYS hear “sin tax”, and think that’s a good idea too; I mean it’s always the fun bit of life and usually gets away without paying its dues! Think Eliot Spitzer, and you’ll know what I’m talking about!)
It’s totally bizarre eh? The kid is ONLY doing well ‘coz he’s black!
Forgive me, but hahahahahahahah!a!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
well you know what they say about sin: the wages are great, but the hours are terrible.
KR @ 845
Yes, the logic is straight from Catch-22.
KR,
You have to think the Obama camp would be painfully tempted to go negative – to try to blow her out of the water. They’d have to be enraged by the way in which Clinton has drawn out the campain.
Still its a sign of discipline that they have largely resisted temptation and kept their integrity intact for the main contest.
I reckon once he does secure the Nomination sentiment will swing very quickly for him. The “why can’t he seal the deal” comments will vanish and be replaced with allusions to Rocky, the 101st in Bastogne, the USA winning gold in Ice Hockey and any other against the odds American victory.
848
WorkToRule
yeah, it’s a good point: the black kid rolls the Dynasty to become the first ever black nominee for Prez.
Wow! Cache, or what?
Diamonds on the soles of his shoes?
It will be amazing enough to transform the general race, and no bleedin’ wonder the Republicans are dreading it. Obama will be the underdog hero who beat all odds (not to mention: THE CLINTONS!) to get there.
All I can say is:
Bring it on!
(and pass the popcorn…)
Breaking News!!!
Hillary is condeding. She can’t win. She doesn’t have the media support. she is behind everything and everyone is aginst her. Reading PB today, you could forgiven if you think Obama is already in the Whire House. Hang on what is this:
* The sinking ship – Media Jump Ship From Obama To Clinton – In a blink of an eye, the media has jumped ship from the Obama campaign and become a crucial Clinton ally, pressing just the message — that Obama is a likely loser in the general election — that Hillary and her allies have been promoting for the past six weeks. The new tenor of media coverage is visible almost everywhere, from Politico, Time and The New Republic to The Washington Post and The New York Times.
* Oh Dear, the new McGovern – [I]f you look at Obama’s vote in Pennsylvania, you begin to see the outlines of the old George McGovern coalition that haunted the Democrats during the ’70s and ’80s, led by college students and minorities….Its ideology is very liberal.
* Were we ever in love? – “But that was nothing compared with the damage done to Obama, who entered the primary as a fresh breeze and left it stale, battered and embittered – still the mathematical favorite for the nomination but no longer the darling of his party [ Klein could have added, 'no longer the darling of the press.']
* The Blues of the Night – “A path does exist for Clinton,” Cillizza wrote. “The best argument Clinton has at her disposal right now is that Obama cannot win over blue collar, white voters who have been hit hard by the economic slowdown and are looking for a politician to look out for them.”
* He cannot win – “The Democrats must admit it: Obama would lose to McCain,” London Times columnist Anatole Kaletsky wrote: “the conclusion would be fairly obvious, were it not for the political correctness that makes it almost impossible for American politicians or commentators to express such a view: Mr Obama may by unable to carry large industrial states with socially conservative white working-class populations simply because of his race.”
* Working class hero – “Why has he (Obama) been unable to win over enough working-class and white voters to wrap up the Democratic nomination? … Is the Democratic Party hesitating about race as it moves to the brink of nominating an African-American to be president?”
* From Rove McManus – “Mr. Obama is befuddled and angry about the national reaction to what are clearly accepted, even commonplace truths in San Francisco and Hyde Park. How could anyone take offense at the observation that people in small-town and rural American are ‘bitter’ and therefore ‘cling’ to their guns and their faith, as well as their xenophobia? Why would anyone raise questions about a public figure who, for only 20 years, attended a church and developed a close personal relationship with its preacher who says AIDS was created by our government as a genocidal tool to be used against people of color, who declared America’s chickens came home to roost on 9/11, and wants God to damn America? Mr. Obama has a weakness among blue-collar working class voters for a reason.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/24/media-jump-ship-from-obam_n_98545.html?view=print
It (politics) was like war, except no one gets killed, just ground down, and in the end we are all dead.
P.94, “Recollections of a Bleeding Heart”, Don Watson, 2002.
April25: Dances with Faust; flirts with flatlines.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AtgSZ1SVhNoPIv3vvFWEVlzb.sgF
April 25: Coroner calling.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=AmsYGaz6FpsB0uJhLrsIXi8xvTYC
April25: She’s back, and she’s flashing fang.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Av2Pf6zmrBpA5ybhxsBXELlJ_b4F
April 25: Carn darlin’, gis a nuvver look, show us yer (bitey) bits!!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=As0bzt5j61I9R0FkxCn5YRPX.sgF
NYT: “David Brooks is off today.”
….hmmm, I could have told them that…any day! LOL
So instead, they give us Krugman, who is, unless you haven’t noticed, signed up to Camp Clinton:
…he still can’t seem to win over large blocs of Democratic voters, especially among the white working class.
As a result, he keeps losing big states. And general election polls suggest that he might well lose to John McCain.
What’s gone wrong?
…what’s gone wrong?
Two points:
1. Nothing has gone wrong
2. Where are the polls that suggest Obama cannot win against McCain?
Last one first. I love these guys: if I claim something, because I am a VERY serious person, then ipso facto it must be true, even if I do not cite the evidence. (In case anyone looks, Obama beats McCain in the current match up polls by a tad more than CLinton)
So what’s wrong? What’s gone wrong? As in, Obama is winning on all metrics?
So if Hillary catches up a bit here, and then slips a bit there, but still remains hopelessly behind, then somehow we must cheer her catch ups but ignore the plain fact she still cannot win?
Bring back Brooks, at least he never pretends to be anything other than a conservative (and is usually far more balanced than this twaddle!).
David, all is forgiven!
Mr. Obama has image problem? Mr. Perfect has image probem? The Messiah has image problem? To paraphrase the self appointed Cheer Leader – LOL.
Memo to Obama – Seven things he should do to fix his image problem.
* TELL US IN CONCRETE TERMS WHERE YOU ARE FROM
* WELCOME US TO YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD
* DEFEND THE CITIES
* ACCEPT THE THEATRICS
* UNDERSTAND ICONS AND SYMBOLS
* KNOW WHAT YOU ARE UP AGAINST
* LEARN AS MUCH AS YOU CAN AS FAST AS YOU CAN.
Welcome to the real world of politics Mr. Obama. It’s not Kumbaya politics.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/133790/output/print
The finns at 801 i agree that wright speaking out not helpful for obama. He should just shut up
And why wont you answer my questions???
#854 – ask William.
GG – This one is for you:
Judgment and Character Are Paramount – Many who have been disposed to admire Obama, including me, see these matters as raising troublesome questions about his judgment and character.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/or_20080426_8859.php
As Kirri falls deeper in love with his own verbiage, we discover his real passion.
My Kirribilli, I love you.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jPiWKodOZ4
KR, you don’t understand the evidence is there. Obama can’t bowl or eat waffles. He’s elitist because he’s too clever and the old’ns don’t like him because (whispered: they don’t like uppity…..you know). Because the Dems can only win with a southern candidate like er Hillary.
In the face of such profound insight and ompelling anecdotal evidence you have only POLLS to counter with!
GG, this is your lucky night. Another for you:
Why? Because Obama understands that the real threat to his candidacy is less Hillary Clinton and John McCain than his own character and cultural attitudes.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_revealing_distractions.html
858
Robert Bollard
Thanks Robert, excuse my slurred typping, byut the chardonnay is sinking in! Damn polls, lies and statistics, eh?
Anecdote is the new antidote, it seems. But the poor honky vote will split, some for the guy who’s a tint too far, and some not. So what? Obama can count, (unlike the creative Hillary crew, who now count what’s not actually there!), and they’ve obviously figured that Joe Lunch Box can either join in with the Dem nominee, and forget what shade he comes in, or they can stay home, or they can vote for…who? Oh, that’s right, Mr McCain of the stuff you I ain’t gunna bail out your mortgage party.
Do the math. Split Joe Sixpack however you like, then add the Independents, Republicans who have been cured with the special Rovian Republican emmetic and George Bush booster, and it comes up the same: Obama wins.
If this is NOT the case, let any man or woman speak, or forever go waffling with the rest of ‘em.
but FINNS #859 , this lot are like him , thats why they are swooning. They like Obama really see nothing wrong with his elitist snoby & cultural views of others. When faced with a fact like Robert the Polls show him unelectable , why just flagrantly
without evidence say the reverse
857
Greeensborough Growler
Oh, so sorry GG, I have flash disabled!
(On this browser! LOL)
861
Ron
OK Ron, which set of polls are you looking at that say Obama will be defeated by McCain?
The Karl Rove ones?
GIve us the URL, and we’ll look at them, seriously.
‘Ullo Finn, guess what?
It’s game on and only 11 days to Indy where they apparently don’t read Thomas B. Edsall of the WaPo. Tommy wrote the article in HuffPo you wet yourself over at 850 that was such breathless “Breaking News!” for you. Tommy Edsall is also a long time booster of the PFA. (Progress for America). Those PNAC people always select such innocuous names for their “think tanks”, don’t they?
“The PFA was, from the beginning, “closely associated” with the George W. Bush administration, the Republican National Committee and “their consultants.” ”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_For_America cf, Personnel.
Finn, this is a rogue poll run by commies, no need to place any stock on it whatsoever.
“And, by 49 percent to 35 percent, Democratic primary voters (in Indy) said Obama is the candidate best able to win in the general election.”
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/NEWS0502/804250437
GG
‘deeper in love with his own verbiage’
Your creativity knows no bounds. For mine I was thinking of the ‘glass’ people,
Windscreens Obrien and home mirrors…broken through over usage by self adulation , the “Obrien’s man” but no doubt you can improve. Obama the flawed character & culture sure is going to be ultimately the defining issue
KR – This poll:
270 to win
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 284 McCain 244 Ties 10
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 259 Ties 15
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
864
Enemy Combatant
PNAC!
My god, (if I had one!), what a name to conjure with. A new American century of governance of the calibre of that drooling doofus George Bush Jr?
Now, there’s a way to give yourself credibilty eh? Republicans (you know, real old school ones) must want their party back from these neocon hustlers and Texas derrick jockeys.
Can’t say I blame them. Century of liberal ascendancy at this rate! LOL
#865 – Ron – There is another killer tag that has just emerged: “The New McGovern”. “The Kid” is doomed.
FINNS #868
touche
OK, Finn, read this, digest what this means, and then tell me again, who’s better for the Democratic party to run against McCain.
Here goes:
So the pro-Clinton camp is circulating these Electoral-Vote maps to “prove” that Clinton is more “electable” in the fall:
Clinton v McCain:
McCain: 239
Clinton: 289
Ties: 10
Obama v McCain:
McCain: 254
Obama: 269
Ties: 15
I can quibble with the methodology, but I won’t. There’s a larger point to be made using those maps. The author has helpfully divided the states into Strong, Weak, and Barely Dem/GOP. Let’s see how our two candidates fare:
Obama Clinton
Strong Dem 67 74
Weak Dem 144 98
Barely Dem 58 117
Tied 15 10
Barely GOP 76 13
Weak GOP 44 89
Strong GOP 134 137
What’s this tell us?
It tells us that Obama’s base is stronger: “strong” and “weak” Dem add up to 172 for Clinton, and 211 for Obama. We have to play less defense.
With Obama, McCain’s base is weaker: 226 EVs versus Clinton, and 178 versus Obama.
These two data points alone are worth the price of admission for Obama. With him as our nominee, Democrats have a larger safe base, and Republicans have a smaller one. But what about the contested states?
More Democratic states are at risk with Clinton. In the “barely Dem” category, Clinton has double the EVs — 117 to 58. What’s more, the “tied” state — Wisconsin, is a Blue state. So with Clinton, we have 127 EVs that are in weak hands.
With Obama, however, we have only 58 “barely Dem” EVs, and the tied states, North Carolina, is a Red state.
Obama puts more pressure on McCain states: With Obama, McCain has 76 “barely GOP” EVs compared to 13 against Clinton. Put another way, best case scenario where our candidates take all the states in their column and “barely GOP” columns, Obama ends up with 360 EVs, while Clinton would get 312. Obama has far higher ceiling.
Obama Holds the Kerry states better: This is related to the “base states” stuff above. The only Kerry state Obama currently loses is New Hampshire. On the other hand, Clinton loses Michigan, New Hampshire, and ties in Wisconsin. Furthermore, Obama has three Kerry states in the “barely” category — Michigan, New Jersey, and Massachusetts. Clinton has six — Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Connecticut, New Jersey, and Hawaii. That means that Clinton is losing or barely holding on to 9 Kerry states (out of 19), compared to four for Obama.
Democratic numbers versus McCain are currently artificially depressed because of our long-running primary. But despite that disadvantage, Obama still runs a far broader, map-changing campaign than Clinton.
If Democrats want to run the same campaign that has served us so poorly the last decade — hold the Kerry states and win Ohio and Florida, then Clinton is the person. It’s clear in her rhetoric that she can’t fathom any other path to the White House. That’s why she has insulted so many “Red” states and small states and whatnot. Because in her mind, 50%+1 is the only thing that matters.
Beside having a more solid base than Clinton, Obama’s campaign would have a tough time competing in Florida, no doubt about that. But he opens up the Mountain West — Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, possibly Montana, North Dakota, and even one or two of Nebraska’s EVs (they are apportioned by congressional district). Obama would be competitive in Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia — with their large youth, African American, Latino, and creative class voters.
And I’m getting this all from the map currently cited by Clinton supporters as evidence of her supposed better electability. The map, sad to say (for them), says the exact opposite.
…Daily Kos.
There’s a lovey quote attached to the above:
Ignorance is natural. Stupidity takes commitment. –Solomon Short
Thought I’d share it.
Poetic, huh?
#870 – deeper and deeper in love with you own verbiage, sorry GG.
And EC #864
where is that genorosity , a ditty at #827 for good wife & you for pow wow over a cup of tea for talking point , then silence ,
oh correction , your colleagues did critique: “the question sans question mark”
and also “syntax-free style” and I have to admit I do not know whether this is good or bad ……but it was too late the words were written and perhaps no dictionary for me and I’ll assume the best, unless the good lady says otherwise
but a Repug Indiana rag in the redest of red states reference perhaps another source may assist
KR #870. To illustrate this even better, just look at Texas. I became interested in Texas when ESJ (how we miss him!) made a snide remark in reply to a joke of mine regarding Obama winning Texas in November. He stated that if he would joing the ISO if it happened. Concerned for the fate of the good comrades in the ISO I accessed Adam’s webiste (there’s an opponent we genuinely mis!) and had a geek at the 2006 midterm results for Texas. Totalling the results in each district I found that he Democrats managed 45% – a lot more than I expected in a state they haven’t won since LBJ.
Check out the map and you’ll see that Obama is trailing McCain in Texas by a piddling 1% – within the margin of error. A Democrat who could win Texas would wipe the flaw with any Republican. It’s as if Clinton is trumpeting her ability to storm Florida – an outer redoubt of the Republican fortress – unaware that Obama has laid a massive mine under the central stronghold.
One more thing Finn:
The site you quoted uses just 3 polling sources.
RCP averages 8.
RCP has Clinton just 0.4% ahead, and Obama 1.9%.
KR, i’m with you: logic will eventually overwhelm bile.
874
Robert Bollard
That is truly beautiful Robert! A thing of great wonder, and inspiration!
And it’s precisely the point that the Supers are seeing. Clinton is running the last race, and Obama is doing something that the Republicans fear more than anything else: someone changing the rules that they’ve drawn up for themselves.
Did you read Blumenthal’s piece in Salon about the implosion of Republicanism? (It’s got a lot of historical markers and is as always, superbly written)
874
Robert Bollard
By the way, I agree with you about ESJ, no loss. But I’m rather disappointed in Carr, as he had a lot to contribute if he could only get over having to talk to us ignorant loathing lefties! LOL
PS – I checked the figures for Clinton in Florida and she’s hardly “storming” the redoubt. She’s ahead of McCain by the same statistically insignificant 1% that McCain holds over Obama in Texas.
Oh FINNS ,
We’ve brought it upon ourselves , give a little education to the political blanks
and the superiority malaise takes over , oh they’re guru’s in this as well as self love.
Fortunately there is so much more underpinning those stats our flock can not see and Texas and midterms to be so disallusionally desperate but we knew their flaky but unknowing stats would come as his supporters like Obama find facts so dispensible
Yep, RB, you are right.
Obama is one point behind McCain, and CLinton is 7 points.
Precisely what Kos is saying, and what we’ve all been seeing: Obama is re-drawing the map, while Clinton is firmly staying with the whitebread formula that has failed so many times.
(oooh, did I say ‘whitebread’?????LOL)
Gotta empty the bottle!
879
Robert Bollard
But a difference in EV’s, 34 to 27.
I think we’ve now elucidated the psephological difference between where Clinton is, and Obama is.
Now, over to Camp Clintonista for some more MSM anecdotes to throw at us! (I hate that MSM, especially in Chinese food, eh? LOL)
Pollster’s average forn Indiana disagrees with RCP. They have Obama ahead 3.6%
http://www.pollster.com/08-IN-Dem-Pres-Primary.php
Yeah, Kirri, 100 years of chardonnay sipping and not a Bud in sight. Six-pak Families are gonna be suckin’ down Chamomile tea at this rate. After a generation or two Joe will entreat Jane:
“Break out another tea-bag for me darlin’, this man’s got a serious thirst for it!”
Finn, way to go! Serious pseph-heads those “electoral vote.commers”. But you need to get away from this 3 cornered rubbish and take a look at the Big Picture.
If you scroll down to the bottom of their home page this is what you’ll find.
Delegates
Source………………Clinton..Obama….BHO-HRC
Washington Post…..1593…..1724……+131
NY Times…………….1555…..1703……+148
AP……………………..1593….1724……+131
CNN……………………1589….1724……+135
ABC……………………1587….1725……+138
CBS……………………1586….1718……+132
MSNBC………………..1596….1728……+132
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
This is how it works. First Obi takes the nomination, and then, it will be Obi v Johnny Bomb Bomb, mano a mano in a land where 2/3 of the voting public have had a gutful of the Mesopotamian War and a land where a monster majority cite The Economy as THE major isuue. That’s the same economy that’s been under Bush(read GOP) management for the last 7 and a 1/2 years. Neophyte Dem voters are registering coast to coast in unprecedented numbers too, and they ain’t lookin’at Brutusina.
Professional board oddsmen assess the market thus:
OBAMA, Barack 1.90
MCCAIN, John 2.75
CLINTON, Hillary 5.00
880
Ron
Please, don’t go changin’:
“Fortunately there is so much more underpinning those stats our flock can not see and Texas and midterms to be so disallusionally desperate but we knew their flaky but unknowing stats would come as his supporters like Obama find facts so dispensible”
…when in my cups, your words bring so much joy, it’s really hard to describe!
KR – My Chinese food is home cooked. Genuine ingredients – no anecdotes, and it is stirred in a wok, not beaten up.
886
Robert Bollard
But do you have Chinese “Flame Attendants”?
Actually, I find facts indispensible. But I am unable to read the mysterious underpinnings.
But, KR, your alcoholic affection for Ron reminds me of Omar Khayyam:
“A loaf of bread
A jug of wine [chardonnay?]
And thou beside me in the wilderness”
That was writen of course a few decades before Omar’s beloved Persia was “obliterated” by Genghis Khan – pyramids of skulls and all that. But Genghis (who was known as a progressive, hence the expression: “to the right of…”) of course had firm intelligence that Persia was going to nuke Israel.
Must be the rice brand thats the problem…perhaps ‘dreamers’. And to think Obama chalks up his delegate lead in unwinable ‘red’ states like relying on the Liberal Party heartlands electorates of Kooyong and Warringah to select a Labor Leader. Political nous personified in the blinded chardonny & poets of old
Maybe Genghis could be a perfect compromise candidate. He would be a great crossover, triangulation opportunity. He would surely be pro-gun, a meat eater with a track record of killing Muslims. And yet, for some strange reason there is no record of association with the Republican party. His habit of bowling with human heads might shock some, but might actually catch on in parts of rural Pennsylvania.
How any one can claim that a process that excludes Michigan and Florida is democracy? They must be talking through their pocket! Suddenly, Hillary leads the popular vote only because we include all the votes.
The Obama rorters can watch and weep.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/25/us/politics/25campaign.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
888
Robert Bollard
Very amusing! So Genghis was enacting Republican policy! Amazing, how ‘before his time’ was that dude? Eh?
Actually, I forgot. There is a connection between Genghis and the Repugs. John Wayne played him in what must have been (I’ve never seen it) the weirdest casting in history.
Genghis and Obama you say , the former ruthlessly dispensible with heads and the later ruthlessly dispensible with the truth , the socialist conversion is complete
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm3164969216/tt0049092
891
Greeensborough Growler
Surely, you jest?
Obama’s name WAS NOT even on the ballot in Michigan!
Sounds like you’d approve of Saddam’s election victories! LOL
You must be able to do better than that? Please try and engage us with something about the demographic shifts in Reagan Democrats since 2004, or else, how about, maybe going and making us a cuppa, eh?
893
Robert Bollard
Ya gotta stop doing that RB! That’s the second time tonight I’ve nearly choked on my vino!
(Nah, it’s classic! Who directed? John Ford would have been brilliant)
RB @ 893,
Words can never explain
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qXXZ6URb4VU&feature=related
Oh no, that’s too good. Funny line from that movie RB:
My son has won the world. Still he must conquer that red-headed Jezebel
…is this a symbol for Obama?
Stay tuned!
GG
#891
Michigan was a statistical fact of over 1/2 million Democrat FAITHFUL voting either for Hillary or ‘uncommitted’ , so Obamabots just dispense with that reality
and can not even intellectualise it in any way. Its a dream , it did not happen so we dismiss it without discussion you see the elitist light
GG, can you adjust the volume please? And how about something with cats?
There’s a boy, keep the playlist moving along. Colour and movement, eh?
Meanwhile, if you get a moment, how about telling all of us why you reckon HRC should be handed what she hasn’t actually earned?
COme on, we’ll try and pay attention!
“They conquered each other and then the world.”
Good lord, (if he/she/it really is ‘good’ that is) that’s a cracker tag line for this Dem primary.
RB, you’ve tapped something here! Old movie themes can be recycled today!
“COme on, we’ll try and pay attention!”
But you are not ! you’re in front of those self love mirriors again and Windsceens Obrien are waiting for another call , whilst Michigan & Florida faithful fester await democratic justice with subconcious but delayed non voter turnout
Ron,
There is a reality coming that the Obamists shut their eyes to not see, stick their fingers in their ears to not hear and shout and stomp to drown out the roar of Hillary’s eventual victory.
All that is left are their pathetic blogs. Soon they will be gone too!
904
Greeensborough Growler
OK, tough boy.
Wanna bet?
GG
#904
touche.
Florida & Mchigan are really the “reversible new style of politic…gate”
(FINNS another one)
Any honest political pundit knows Hillary was always going to win both in january by 17% and she did. Had the roles been reversed and the DNC “stole” these States from Obama he would have said
“thats the old style of politics”…cheating me by the backroom boys
KR,
So many blogs and nothing to say.
Waiting GG?
You got your answer , move away from the mirrior
the “reversible new style of politic…gate” for Michigan & Florida , perhaps alittle
difficult to explain
You could always put your money where your mouth is GG, but maybe there’s not enough to fill the space?
I notice that not one of the Clinton barrackers have even tried to address the psephological argument that Obama runs McCain down on his own turf.
But that should come as no surprise, since it’s irrefutable. And as for Michigan and Florida, are you really serious? Neither was contested by Obama, and one did not even have his name on the ballot!
Forgive me while I check Saddam’s election ‘victories’ for comparison! LOL
KR,
You love to be the bully!
As stated many times previously and I can only reaffirm, I do not bet on things that talk. Period.
Therefore ,you will just have to win the argument on your “Tony Abbott” like people skills.
As for the Obama/McCain argument, everything I read says Obama is “toast”.
GG,Ron and Finns,
what is it with you guys that you have to insult those who disagree?
Happy to accept your pro-Hillary views but the personal goading is irritating.
911
Greeensborough Growler
Not at all GG, I was just giving you the opportunity to pick up a few k, you know, since you’ve read about it and everything.
Anytime you wanna just take my money, I’m waiting to give it to you ( and I mean that in the nicest possible way! LOL)
912
megan
It’s a boy thing I think Megan. They start at 4 years of age and it’s all pooh and bum_jokes and it goes downhill from there! LOL
(Some of us actually grow up, but it’s hard leaving the others behind)
KR,
And then there are people like yourself who stick the pooh in their mouth and spend the rest of their life talking to get the taste out.
See what I mean Megan?
The big case in NY is just finished: cops pump 50 bullets in unarmed man on the street and get off.
Dead guy’s black.
Two of the cops are too (or tinted at least)
Big aggro on the streets, and Sharpton’s there to rev it up.
How’s this gonna play in the hood?
Stay tuned.
US consumer confidence: worst in 26 years.
Gas nearly $4/gallon (I wish!!!!!)
And it don’t look good stateside.
GG
#915
Its the Obamabotic state of mind. The very audacity of hypocracy.
This lot with self adulation sweep out their barbs , some 25 of them to boot ,
(with a few exceptions) against just the 3 Amigos
but some gentle (working in 4th gear) return fire to Obama, shocks their preciousness of Obama chardonny elitists superiority being out there for all to starkly see that hypocracy and that is Obama’s political problem
Yeah that’s a terrible story in the US.
Apparently a guy named KR was seen running away from arguments with three bloggists called GG, Finns and Ron.
They drew out their weapons of facts and sadly, KR fell to the ground and passed away due to an over dose of truth.
Kirri@914,
A ‘boy thing’ you think? The sparring probably is but it just gets so vicious…maybe if I can see it through the focus of a Rugby scrum.
Love the game but don’t get the eye-gouging.
Oh, is that the time?
And Ron, thanks for this:
but some gentle (working in 4th gear) return fire to Obama, shocks their preciousness of Obama chardonny elitists superiority being out there for all to starkly see that hypocracy and that is Obama’s political problem
…you have no idea, none at all, how your words affect me! LOL
Just don’t go changin’, eh?
920
megan
Nah, the eye gouging is just mateship.
It’s the finger up the wazoo that really shows they care!
(My god, I actually know something about a game with a funny shaped ‘ball’. Is that a misnomer?)
Hot off the press:
The latest average of polls from RealClearPolitics has Obama beating Clinton in North Carolina 51.3% to 35.8%. North Carolina’s primary also is on May 6.
As the Democrats continue to duke it out, Obama edged ahead of McCain in the latest daily presidential-tracking poll from Rasmussen Reports. The poll shows Obama ahead of McCain 47% to 45% — only the second time in the past six weeks that the Illinois senator has held an advantage over McCain.
Kirri,
Now that really bring tears to the eyes!
Now you have selectively quoted , typical of dispensing with facts. Full quote:
GG
#915
Its the Obamabotic state of mind. The very audacity of hypocracy.
This lot with self adulation sweep out their barbs , some 25 of them to boot ,
(with a few exceptions) against just the 3 Amigos
but some gentle (working in 4th gear) return fire to Obama, shocks their preciousness of Obama chardonny elitists superiority being out there for all to starkly see that hypocracy and that is Obama’s political problem
brings…
Even more interesting:
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — According to Reuters, a ship contracted by the U.S Military Sealift Command fired at least one shot toward an Iranian boat. Reuters cited an unnamed U.S. defense official in its report on Friday morning and said that more details were not yet available. Crude oil spiked more than $3 in the wake of the news.
…gun boat commodity pricing! Whoopeee! Shoot now, pay later!
Megan, I understand where you are going! LOL
But boyz in scrums, phew, it’s too much to even imagine!
Was only a matter of time……ratchetting up to that for yonks.
925
Ron
Sorry ROn, I just thought that was the best bit! You know, I’m starting to get mesmerized by your eloquence!
Or, maybe, I’m just p!ssed! LOL
Farnarkle…oil’s on spurt. gotta go
929
megan
yep, straits of hormuz and armaggedon have a strange attraction for each other!
Makes you wonder whether an escalation of fear is something that will take the attention away from the Dems contest and back to the hawks. US/CIA history makes me very cynical.
phew, those boyz with their gunboats!
Anyway, all’s well. Not oil well, but everything else has tanked on cue.
Hmmm, oil and tank. That fits.
Really, sometimes I wish those gun crazy muthas would just go home and take care of say the Lower 9th Ward, where Jonny Bomb Bomb was today.
932
megan
There’s something brewin’ Megan. All this weird Syria stuff, and Hillary getting testosterone shots in the back alley with Macca, there’s gotta be a connection.
On form tonight,Kirri!
Gotta go…night all.
See ya M.
Obama and D.N.C. Set Up Fund-Raising Committee
Senator Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and the Democratic National Committee are establishing a joint fund-raising committee, a step that is usually only undertaken by a party’s presumptive nominee but in this case is being driven by how long it has taken the Democrats to settle their nomination fight.
The joint fund-raising agreement, which allows donors to write a single large check which is then divvied up between the candidate’s campaign and the party, was first reported by Time magazine’s The Page and confirmed by the Obama campaign.
Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, has already created a similar set-up with the Republican National Committee. Because the party can undertake activities on the candidate’s behalf within certain restrictions, the joint committees are usually created after it is clear who the nominee is and then used as a vehicle to raise more money because they take advantage of the much greater contribution limits for the national parties, $28,500, compared to just $2,300 for the primary and $2,300 for the general election for a candidate’s campaign.
/Michael Luo
must be because he’s black.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html