This post will be progressively updated to follow the count in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, starting from when I get out of bed (by which time it might well be all over). Real Clear Politics’ poll average shows a slight narrowing in Hillary Clinton’s lead since last week, from 47.4-40.4 to 49.5-43.4.
11.30am AEST. CNN reports Clinton leads 53-47 with 20 per cent of precincts counted. Their exit poll, if I’m reading it correctly, points to a result of about 52-48. They called it a “win” for Clinton about half an hour ago, for what that’s worth.
12.30pm. Clinton has just given a speech to claim victory of one kind or another: she now leads 54-46 with 75 per cent of precincts reporting.
12.50pm. As Obama gives his speech, the CNN’s count clicks over to 55-45 with 78 per cent of precincts reporting. They are giving Clinton 52 delegates to Obama’s 36 on television, but their web page is holding back on 37-31.
2.20pm. With 98 per cent of precincts reporting, Clinton’s has a lead of 54.8-45.2, which is at the higher end of market expectations.
1,387 Comments
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I wonder what time Wolf will call it.
It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.
Morning Bludgers, be sure y’all have a nice primary now, ya hear!
Tues April 22:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AhIlNntzDRry0yK6iTmTyZAXvTYC
Tues April 22:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=ApOAmu02.nA0KnBWvqRZcIpX_b4F
Tues April 22: Man demonstrating his superiority over animals
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AgNGcdN0XsE9mhZJDt2ynD1J_b4F
————————–
Ah, Ryano, but how many Obibots will be activated in the Obi-zones? In primaries, vox populi is important, but as far as the Dem nomination goes, it’s the delegate tally that counts. After N.C. and IN, the gap will still be 140+ for Obi with a much smaller pool left from which Brutusina may draw.
If the margin is less than 5 or 6 points, SDs will drawn to the surface like dung beetles on the Serengeti when the Big Game begin to move.
What time are we expecting to see results (on other less sleep deprived sites) ?
Heard on MSNBC that early exit polling in “rural areas” breaking for Clinton 70 – 30…. I wonder if these are Chaos voters who switched parties only to disrupt the process.
Hillary doing well in Pittsburgh and surrounding areas — Murtha country — as per MSNBC
Timbo, in just under 3 hours from now.
First exit polls on FauxNews:
Clinton ahead but less than expected with gun owners
Obama ahead but less than expected with college educated
Who has been “unfair” in their advertising?
Clinton 67%
Obama 42%
i think that was accurate. may differ a few points. can’t quite remember.
both analysts said that is worrying for Clinton especially as women(hill’s base) react more to unfairness.
take it with a grain of salt until numbers come in i guess.
Morning all
what is the best site for tracking the results etc?
sounds like it’s already different to the pre-polls.
-
Drudge is reporting early exit polling results
C 52 O 48
Union Households
58-42 Clinton
Under $50,00 P.A.
55-45 Clinton
Church Goers
57-43 Clinton
Urban Voters
61-39 Obama
Who relates to Pennsylvanians
65-64 Obama
Exit polls showing no surge in late deciders. About 20% as opposed to the about 30 in Ohio. If that number remains true Clinton wo’n break a 10% margin and is looking much closer to 5. That goon Drudge has exit polls showing Hillary by 4, but he was touting internal Clinton polling showing her to win by +10 the other day.
Here’s the analysis from the Votemaster site which is unbiased and comprehensive as opposed to the “cherry picking” tendencies of many on this site.
Seems to indicate a Clinton victory of around 10%. About where we were six weeks ago.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Apr22.html
G’day, Jen, CNN online streamed smooth and fast results in TX.
Anyway, here’s a neat report of the latest.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/23/us/politics/22cnd-campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Harry, that urban turn out for The Kid is crucial. So far so good.
agree EC
The NYT has a sweet little interactive calculator on it’s home page. You move the slider to a percentage value averaged across the remaining 10 primaries. It then tells you how many of the uncommitted superdelgates she needs to exceed Obama’s total delegate numbers.
At her average so far – 47% of the vote, she will need 79% of remaining SDs
Assuming an even 50%, she needs 77% of uncom SDs
http://www.nytimes.com/
Morning all.
I notice RCP has extended Obama’s national poll lead to 10.4 this morning. That’s a leap of nearly 3% in as many days.
I saw`that too Ferny. But if Hillary wins by even 2 votes in Pa. today she will claim a resounding victory and drag this out regardless.
Our only hope is that the people of Pennsylvania are as fed up with her antics as some of us are and Obama voters turn out in unprecendented numbers.
Morning Jen,
A win to The Kid would be an upset alright. I guess it relies on how ‘upset’ the good folk of Penn are with the shenanigans of Hillary and whether they really prefer stage-managed gun-totin, beer swillin’, Iran obliteratin’ bullsh*t to honesty.
A 20 point lead to Hillary a few weeks back was always going to be a near impossible task to overcome. But Obama has already done the near impossible to get the lead down to single digits.
Still I’m sticking by my earlier call of Hillary by 7-8. Both sides will claim it as a victory but nothing will have really changed and the show will move on to Indiana, NC…and on and on and on.
“It won’t be a long night US time that’s for sure. As Carville reminds us, Pennsylvania is just Pittsburgh and Philadelphia with Alabama in between. That’s Clinton country folks.”
That “Alabama in between” is also Redneck Republican country (I’ve also heard it called “Penn-tucky”). So it means absolutely nothing in terms of which candidate (Obama or Clinton) is best able to carry Pennsylvania come November. The Dems rely on Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (especially the suburbs) to win Pennsylvania, not the wasteland in between.
Overall early exit poll
52-48 Clinton.
looking good for Obama. That is nowhere near enough
No movement in the betting markets as yet. They have been fooled by exit polls before. So the consensus at the moment is wait and see.
Where is your source Harry?
HuffPo, Ferny.
WorkToRule, which markets are you referring to, got a link, please.
46 minutes to go . . . after 6 weeks that STILL seems like an eternity
for what it’s worth (possibly not a whole lot), the “wisdom” of crowds: http://election2008.predictify.com/questiondata.aspx?auction_id=3257&HostName=election2008
turnout 80% white and 57% female
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/22/exit-polls-who-showed-up-at-the-polls-today/
While we’re waiting, The Imbecile displays his deep and ongoing empathy with fellow Americans.
Pennsylvania Exit Polls: 9 In 10 Americans Think US In A Recession, Bush Says “We’re Not”
Tues April 22: Old Milit-Shills never die.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AlcAiFAoSN.8GUt1tiBSXX1X_b4F
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Little_Bighorn
That’s pretty much the PA Democrat demographic Andrew. Most of them on low incomes too. Clinton heartland
“Obama Osama Humm Are they brothers”
From a Church in Pennsylvania. As disgusting and low as it gets. And they wonder why church attendence keeps on falling.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23579901-5012572,00.html
Harry, even a narrow 4% win for Clinton will be painted by her a great victory. Only a loss has any chance of making her drop out. Please voters of Penn, put us out of our misery.
I think that church is in South Carolina, Andrew. Probably right under a Confed flag.
EC
I’ve been following sports.betfair.com
Its hilary to win the nomination has been around $5.5 over the last few days. No movement in that price as yet.
The favoured outcome is Clinton to win but by less that 7.5% – which doesn’t really add much at this stage.
Even if Clinton loses, she and her camp have said,, they will not drop out. We’re dealing with some real nuts here, with Bill, Hillary and unfortunately, the loyal Clintonites who continue to prop up her dead campaign bid for the nomination, they prefer to destroy the party than to face the facts that Clinton cannot win the nomination, so winning the presidency is beyond her reach!
Game over now that Michael Moore has endorsed Obama. Kiss of death perhaps?
Ready to pull your levers, Bludgers? (And I mean no disrespect! LOL)
If you’re quick:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/live-blogging-the-pa-primary/index.html?hp
…the picture on the top of the page is worth the price of admission.
Here’s one exit poll
I don’t believe it for a second but it made me smile
Obama 52%
The Monster 47%
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YjhlYzZiYjRhNDI0YTMwYzAxMTQ0NWNhNTQyODc4ZGE=
Polls closed. First end of voting exit polls showing Clinton +4. Could still be overwhelmingly from bigger and city areas though.
24
Ecky, this article titiled “Clueless in America” applies:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/opinion/22herbert.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…bookmark and read when you get a chance. And then think of what three trillion dollars could have done to fix it, and rebuilt New Orleans and….
With crude oil a dime short of US$120 last night, and the USD hitting $1.60 to the Euro, maybe those Amish have the right idea!
Clinton’s won – but by less than 10 (I’m basing that from the CNN Exit Polls)
Only 10% of voters are under 30 according to exit poll on CNN.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#PA
Only 10% of voters are under 30 according to exit poll on CNN.
Does this imply that they didn’t vote or that the exit poll is underrepresentative?
Kiss of death for Obama if that’s correct FG.
I still stand by my 9% prediction in favour of Mrs Clinton.
First movement in the betting markets – Clinton odds moving out to $6.
Clinton is begining to remind me of Jason from the Friday 13th series.
“Probably more important than the exit polls: Andrea Mitchell (who should have gotten her own show instead of David Gregory) says that Clinton insiders expect a close result based on their field reports.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It’s looking like less than a 5 point win to me.
If Clinton wins by less than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.
If Clinton wins by more than 10% I predict Obama supporters will see this as good cause for her to drop out.
And conversely Alan,
If Clinton wins by less than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.
If Clinton wins by more than 10% Clinton supporters will see this as good cause for her to keep going.
In other words nothing will change…on to Denver then i guess!
42
Alan
We’ve heard the argument ‘why hasn’t Obama finished her off?’, but the other one is pretty powerful: ‘how come Clinton, with her dynasty connections, hasn’t won yet?’
Take ya pick, as they say.
By my calculations, the CNN exit poll is;
Clinton 51.5%
Obama 48%
Perhaps there is a God after all. Anything better than an 8% Obama loss would be a bonus for me. A 5% or less Obama loss will really put the pressure on Hillary to quit.
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