Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.
* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.
822 Comments
Well, lemme jump in with the state of play as per http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/02/ultimate-delegate-tracker.html:
Obama: delegates (GP) – 1490, SDs – 235, total – 1725
Clinton: delegates (GP) – 1336, SDs – 257, total – 1593
1
Pancho
Which proves?
Oh yeah, that Hillary Clinton is ‘winning’, how silly of me to ask! LOL
Dear oh Dear KR @1371,
“Your own logic is that Hillary is in front of the nomination race because she is behind!”
Lie.
Have never said Hillary is in front. However, have said she could get there in the end with the assisatance of the SDs. Have also been known to point to polls or scenarios that have her in front in various situations.
Then follows bluster, bluster, bulldust, bluster. (We certainly know what you’ve got your hand on).
Pancho, can I add:
According to electoral-vote.com, in Indiana :
Obama ties with McCain
Clinton is behind McCain by 5%
in North Carolina:
Obama ties McCain
Clinton is behind McCain 11%
So, which candidate looks more likely to take out McCain?
Actually, KR, some Hillarians will concede she is not winning. The maths really don’t add up, no matter how it is spun.
But apparently losing the popular vote, having fewer delegates, and generally losing nationwide polls against Obama, makes Hillary more electable!
It’s the stuff of true insanity.
Mathematically, it would be highly improbable for Clinton to win. If they are tied in Indiana, and all other states have Obama in front, she would have to rely on superdelegates. I cannot see the supers wanting to trump the popular vote.
3
Greeensborough Growler
Are you making abusive remarks or are you actually discussing electoral-vote.com and the breakdown of the state match up polls?
Oh, that’s right, you have difficulties when the numbers are scrutinised.
That’s OK, GG, I’ll tell you again:
Obama threatens McCain in more states and more closely than Clinton.
If, when the nomination is settled, and Obama wins, he can then start his campaign against the Republicans. No doubt you’ll be arguing their case there too?
DP, that’s what bloggers have been saying for weeks now, but Hillary supporters just won’t have a bar of it. They seem to think that even if the SDs stepped in and handed the nomination to Hillary, Democrat voters would gladly throw their support behind Hillary and not feel cheated.
It’s the stuff of true naivety.
DP – if you take into account the fact that supers have gone about 80 to 10 in favour of Obama since early Feb, and the fact that there is a continuous drip of them towards him at present, it would seem that they too know which way the wind is a blowin’…
Another point:
If the total EV count was a simple,cut and dried matter of tallying all 50 state polls, then why aren’t Supers flocking to Clinton?
One of numerous reasons is that they can actually break down the 50 individual state races and see that Obama is bearing down on the Republicans in a way Hillary Clinton is not.
I’ll concede this is a more nuanced way to analyse the results, but let remember that there are 50 races and not one.
Also, HRC has consistenly poor polls in general, and many people will not vote for another Clinton. Obama will not put off swinging voters anywhere near the way Clinton will.
All this stuff gets poured over on a daily basis, but the trend has NOT changed.
I was watching the Dem analyst Bob Bechel on Faux News earlier today. He is one of the guys who introduced these Superdelegates in 1984.
He said it is absolutely certain that the Supers will make their decision by mid June at the very latest.
He said the scary scenario however, is that Hillary won’t accept the decision and will push onto the convention anyway.
The Clintons megalomania is scaring even the hardest of hardheads inside the Party. It’s becoming increasingly more obvious that the Party’s interest run a distant second to the Clinton’s interest in their own twisted little world.
KR@4 – those numbers are interesting, given that the primaries are open. While you would expect the North Carolina numbers, the Indiana ones would indicate that Hillary is not doing well with Independents and Republicans in that state, particularly given the Sen. Bayh factor and his support for her. It may mean nothing, particularly if Limbaugh and his cronies are able to get any sort of ‘project chaos’ going again, but it might also be the final nail in her coffin.
I know its pure speculation at this stage, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Hillary did push onto the convention, even after she has lost on all fronts. I didn’t believe it before, but I am beginning to think Hillary is determined to make life as difficult as possible for Obama, even if this means McCain wins POTUS.
It is the only way she can have one more stab at POTUS in 2012, because if Obama wins, he is more than likely to be the Dem. nominee in 2012 as well.
But of course, the trail of destruction left behind for the Democrats would create an enormous amount of anger amongst Democrat voters, so even if McCain wins, Hillary would be unlikely to get far in 2012.
Conclusion: It’s over. Hillary knows it. Her supporters know it. The only question left is: Will Hillary now do the honorable thing by the Democrats (and Obama) or try to handicap her own party?
So far, it seems to be the latter.
I think I’m going to start a new business selling ‘final nails’. According the PB traffic the ongoing demand suggests that they are in high demand and that volume will be sustainable for several months.
KR,
I know you don’t like the numbers at 1354 because they demonstrate that Obama is not necessarily the most likely victor come November. So you gotta bluster and bulldust. I understand, really I do.
A simple message made complicated by the resident obfuscator of political correctness. You don’t fool anyone you poor old scallywag.
Some other recent Indiana polls to further muddy the waters.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/Apr26.html
Pancho
Do you support Democrat POTUS Trumans’ decision to nuke Japan in 1945 ?
Do you support a POTUS nuking Iran if it had already launched nukes at Perth ?
Noocat – while I think she’s out, the win in PA has definately bolstered Hillary. I think she deserves the benefit of the doubt, at least until Indiana. In the same way I don’t think it is tenable for supers to overturn the public will at the end of the primary season, it would be very difficult for them to tell the 9 point winner of PA that she has to go without engendering a lot of bad blood in the party.
The behaviour of the Clinton campaign after 6 May, depending on the result, will give us a good idea of how far this is gonna go. If she loses both contests that day, I think she’ll find it very hard to continue, as none of her various arguments will really hold.
Catrina,
Very industrious of you. Someones got to keep the economy ticking while we PBs busy correcting each other.
Cheers.
Ah Ron, I was gonna let that one slide. That question is really getting off track, but indicative of your evolving debating style on here I think. People are for Hillary or Obamabots. Writers are pro-Obama or not. Peaceniks or pacifists vs. hawks. Helicopter vs. Hemmingway.
And now you want a one word response to the death of hundreds of thousands of people as a way to find out what side of a political debate one is on? You don’t need to draw a line down the middle of everything and define all in terms of that. It is confrontational partisanship which probably doesn’t aid debate.
I have said my piece – Hillary’s comments about ‘totally obliterating Iran’ were incredibly stupid. This is a pretty common assessment. And they have nothing to do with Truman (nor nuking Perth??????) whether or not you wish to see that.
Ron
After America nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki, do you think it would be a good thing if Tokyo “obliterated ” the U.S.A.?
It’s kinda a silly argument to be having isn’t it.
Isn’t it better if leaders of countries and prospective leaders don’t indulge in ridiculous presumptive rhetoric?
Harryd’H and Noocat,
You guys have got to get with the program. No quoting of sites like Fox. Apparently, they are full of modcons
EC and KR have decreed.
Rronronron – You’re moving very quickly to the good old debating trick of the ‘ticking bomb’ example as famously discussed by Charles Krauthammer in 2005. I have no interest in engagement on the issue, but here is a link that should give you hours of solo pleasure:
http://www.slate.com/id/2132195/nav/tap1/
In the meantime I would only add that in my opinion anyone left-of-centre who supports Hillary’s loose cannon statements on obliterating the Iranians has achieved the distinction of an attitude in tune with US neocons responsible for the Iraq debacle. Congratulations. What’s the air like up there? Pretty thin I’d reckon.
If we are to believe the Huffington Post, Hillary now has the support of the big media players in the U.S.
Don’t expect any issues to be debated. In fact, the only debate is whether there should be another one. After the last one Barack won’t even go for an open format without moderator dominated questions.
Anyway McCain’s camp have decided Obama is the Hamas candidate and also supports higher petrol taxes. Presumably he eats babies as well, or is that just the Clintons. They should get Alexander Downer and Tony Abbott’s help if they want some first class sleazy mudslinging. God save the queen!
KR,
Setting up a we “wuz robbed” narrative. Very pro active of you.
Just an idle thought:
Try and guess the price of oil after Hillary has incinerated Iran!
If the allocation of Democratic nomination delegates for each state were winner take all, like the General Election, who would be winning?
Just interested to know. Especially with Clinton winning California, Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
#23 – [If we are to believe the Huffington Post, Hillary now has the support of the big media players in the U.S.] – gee, poor, poor Obama, now that he is being abandoned by the “big media players” and i wonder why. What has he done to deserve this. Poor baby.
Sceptic – Hillary would be winning.
And just to show how badly this would reflect the wishes of the electorate – a similar formula would have seen the return of the Howard government in a hung parliament on the back of the support of Bob Katter
FG #28
Doesn’t say much for the election of the President at a general election.
If Clinton is the nominee the Dems would lose the black vote & young vote in spades. She would lose swing states with larger pockets of these constituencies, like Florida.
But will the Democratic heartland vote for a black liberal like Obama? I’m not sure.
John McCain must be a strong chance of pinching the presidency.
Another way to teach children is with pictures, so these two graphs are revealing:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html
They show McCain and Obama and McCain/Clinton poll averages.
McCain is red in both.
See how much red has been above Clinton’s blue as compared with Obama’s?
See how much higher McCain’s red has been above Clintons blue?
Another way to look at what is, afterall, a lot of tea leaves, but they show who’s really strongest against McCain over the polled period.
Thanks for the mature analysis Finns.
That would explain why Obama seems to be getting the endorsement of most major newspapers wherever he goes.
Another red herring
Change?
Indiana already has:
After the rally, local Democrats gathered in the courthouse square for a cookout. Gospel music wailed from a speaker while children danced on Adams Street. A young man from Philly set up a T-shirt stand. The campaign for America’s first black president had arrived at the very spot where the last lynching north of the Mason-Dixon Line took place. On August 7, 1930, sledgehammer-wielding whites battered their way into the county jail to kidnap two black prisoners accused of shooting a white man and raping a white woman. A photograph of the gleeful mob appeared in Life magazine, inspiring the song “Strange Fruit.”
When the Rev. Al C. Green moved to Marion from Mississippi in 1969, the hanging tree was still standing, with a ring of rope embedded in the bark. Since then, the tree has been cut down, Grant County elected the first black sheriff in Indiana, biracial basketball teams won state titles, and, on that day, both races gathered to cheer Barack Obama.
Salon
Sceptic
In a normal year. Yes
After 8 years of Bush. No.
29 Sceptic
Not on the polling figures – and this is before the dems have even begun their campaign against him.
When Bill Kristol starts stumping hard for Hillary you just KNOW they’re packing it at the thought of Obama re-writing the historical political map!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/opinion/28kristol.html?hp
…go Billy, rootin’ for Hillbilly!
And here’s how it’s done. Jimmy Carter talks about Nepal, and how they’ve transitioned to elections by talking to the ‘terrorists’, and the outcome that’s possible by talking with Hamas:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/opinion/28carter.html?hp
…or, they can do it the Hillary way, with ludicrous threats.
Catrina
#1179
You asked me in #1179 last night to answer 8 questions about the Iran/nukes issue. Subsequently you again asked me to answer them
I have prepared answers to your questions with a preface if you still wish a reply ?
I guess we’ve all been watching 4 Corners
38
Ferny Grover
nah, I’ve been reading a US blogsite.
And you think we’ve got a problem with ranting potty-mouths! LOL
I’m intrigued by the whole thing. Here’s a race with an old white guy, an aging white woman, and younger black man, all contending to be president of the USA.
The god’s must be crazy!
Not yet in the West. Don’t tell us bow it ends!
The other KR
Catrina, that’s how it starts!
You’ve been warned! LOL
Funny sort of wrap up at the end of 4 Corners. I did find the difference between the younger and older generations in their takes on race relations interesting. Particularly the younger’s desire for engagement. Perhaps not surprising when juxtaposed against some of the older ABC footage. And seeing some of that footage first-hand does really make me smile at some of the irrelevant and snide comments about kumbaya politics here.
Oops. Sorry Kevin.
The old white guy:
On March 26, McCain gave a speech on foreign policy in Los Angeles that was billed as his most comprehensive statement on the subject. It contained within it the most radical idea put forward by a major candidate for the presidency in 25 years. Yet almost no one noticed.
In his speech McCain proposed that the United States expel Russia from the G8, the group of advanced industrial countries. Moscow was included in this body in the 1990s to recognize and reward it for peacefully ending the cold war on Western terms, dismantling the Soviet empire and withdrawing from large chunks of the old Russian Empire as well. McCain also proposed that the United States should expand the G8 by taking in India and Brazil—but pointedly excluded China from the councils of power.
We have spent months debating Barack Obama’s suggestion that he might, under some circumstances, meet with Iranians and Venezuelans. It is a sign of what is wrong with the foreign-policy debate that this idea is treated as a revolution in U.S. policy while McCain’s proposal has barely registered. What McCain has announced is momentous—that the United States should adopt a policy of active exclusion and hostility toward two major global powers. It would reverse a decades-old bipartisan American policy of integrating these two countries into the global order, a policy that began under Richard Nixon (with Beijing) and continued under Ronald Reagan (with Moscow). It is a policy that would alienate many countries in Europe and Asia who would see it as an attempt by Washington to begin a new cold war.
I write this with sadness because I greatly admire John McCain, a man of intelligence, honor and enormous personal and political courage. I also agree with much of what else he said in that speech in Los Angeles. But in recent years, McCain has turned into a foreign-policy schizophrenic, alternating between neoconservative posturing and realist common sense. His speech reads like it was written by two very different people, each one given an allotment of a few paragraphs on every topic.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134317
…this article, by Fareed Zakaria is a zinger.
There is a 187 delegates up for grabs next Tuesday. The rest of the contests are basically chicken feed. If it comes out as 93-94 each then (given that Obama is $1.08 favorites in NC I would suggest this is the very best Clinton can do), it is impossible for Clinton to make up the numbers. A more likely result is 105 to 82.
Pancho
#19
Your answer is indicative of the Obamabots. When a question is asked that exposes your poor argument in defending an Obama flaw you avoid answering and instead supplying a personal comment or claim the question is off track. Well it was not , but your answer would have been.
If a POTUS is asked if Iran ACTUALLY did launch nukes at Perth , would he nuke Iran. The answer is yes (for 90% of Australians) but apparently not for you
Same question substituting London , then same answer for 90% of English) Same for Israel. The 90% stat will be generous to your group
Same question re Truman who did nuke Japan , Trumans alternative was to have dead one million Aussies , US , British etc solders dying in a land invasion
It seems the Obama & his supporters have a problem in properly defending an Ally Country or support pacifism or dislike Hillary so much or dislike Israel so much , or think nukes cann’t be talked about using despite India , North Korea & Pakistan having them , or probably all of these
Tip for you boss – no one’s gonna nuke Perth. If we are playing hypotheticals, and I was a pollie given such a question, I would tell whoever posed it to stop being a moron. Make of that what you will.
FG – [I guess we’ve all been watching 4 Corners] – yes, a question that i have asked continuously – who is Obama?
I knew you weren’t paying attention Finns!
j/v
#22
You are clearly not of the Labor Party , perhaps the Greens. The votes of the elitist view base are accepted by the Party but with a sneer but that is all that is accepted
As for falsely accusing Hillary as you have done despite a video proving your claims are false , shows how phony the Obama new politics are
And Ron has now become an oracle:
“[you] claim the question is off track. Well it was not , but your answer would have been.”
Or does it mean your question was a set-up Ron?
JV – I didn’t realise it was YOU who was responsible for Obama’s politics.
*Tips hat*
Again Ron (@22), what have either the ALP or the Greens got to do with U.S. politics? And who cares if someone is a member of one or the other of them? What bearing does that have on anything – or more to the point, Hillary’s bellicosity? You seem to be seeking another divide to place someone away from you so as not to need to intellectually interrogate what is presented.
46- About the Nuking of Japan, four more weeks of fire bombing would have killed just as many Japanese as the two nukes. Wars are a nasty business at the best of times….
No Ferny , it means the Obamabots answers are always off track when you are put under pressure like Obama reacts except he sweated , fumbled , stuttered and avoidednswering the ABC TV moderator questions but then we know he has no ‘ticker’ for the job
Pancho “intellectually interrogate” , do you know what it means. Avoiding debate here may be OK for you to get away with but Obama won’t be able to against McCain , and HE is going to get asked the Hillary question also.
But his answer I suspect will be fatal to his whole bid
22
jaundiced view
Don’t you know about SANE? Socialists Alliance for Nuclear Extermination?
They’re a really popular leftist movement for advancing human life through nuclear annihilation.
It’s equitable: everyone gets fried
It’s green: it will really reduce CO2 emissions
It’s easy: Just ask Hillary
And in fact, it’s just plain old SANE!
Wanna bet Ron?
Put something on the table for the primaries, then a double or nothing for Obama to beat McCain. I’ll take both.
Ron, your posts are invariably all over the place, lack reason, are full of red herrings and odd comparisons (we’ve been shown Vietnamese helicopters and Hiroshima nukes today). Now we have prognostications (your answer would have been wrong) and pontifications (you are not of the Labor Party).
And all this in a blog on US elections.
Who’s off track here?
Only in a psychological sense. Unless she has MEGA wins in the remaining states, which polls are in no way predicting, Hillary has no hope.
Of course, she has every right to continue up to the convention. Even after a majority of superdelegates pledge their vote for Obama, Hillary might stick it out, hoping to somehow change their minds. But if it were any candidate other than Hillary Clinton, either the party would have pushed them out by now or the candidate themselves would have seen the writing on the wall and politely exited.
Completely agree Noocat. I just think her turfing has to be carefully managed, and hopefully – for the sake of the party – the Indiana result will help.
KR at 30 why are you bothering with all your fancy graphs and statistics. The reality is that either (a) Hillary is currently winning or (b) She will win when the SDs flock toward her.
I share Noocat’s at 13 concerns. I’m scared Hillary will go to the convention no matter what. What a disaster this would be. Doesnt she want a shot at 2016???
“Doesnt she want a shot at 2016???”
Can you even imagine how wacky Bill would be by then?
B.S. Fairman #54
46- About the Nuking of Japan, four more weeks of fire bombing would have killed just as many Japanese as the two nukes. Wars are a nasty business at the best of times.
I entirely agree. Whether the Japanese would have then surrended is difficult to know. Yes they are more ‘nasty’ on the ground compared to what the films show. But the options against an aggressor often are limited to the country that was attacked. today with long range missiles and nukes and WMD’s the decision making is even more difficult
Andrew, I think the concern is that she might be too old by then, but then again, McCain is hardly a spring chicken.
Sceptic at 26
You need to catch up on current events.
Obama won Texas.
It is great that Ron and Finns are about because we have to reveal our deep and meaningful existence. (before it is too late).
We are all members of the Neon Cobbers of Outrageous Enligtenment. (NeonCobs for short).
Our aim is to be a beacon of light amidst a sea of swilly Obama supporters. We are a lighthouse to guide the woried to a palace of nirvanic ecstasy.
NeonCobs rule the world. Get used to it.
Yep, agreed. A clean, dignified exit can only help Obama in the long run, because anything bloody will only further divide the party. By the way, when the dust settles, I think Obama will be best able to unite the party than if Hillary had won, especially after her comments on Iran, playing the race card, etc.
So that is what Hillary is offering? I must have got confused somewhere between all that fear at 3am and Iran.
Noocat
#60
Yes she has every right to continue to the election. she is the best candidate on electability grounds and she knows it. do not be fooled by Kirri’s foray into stats & electoral Staes parameters , he is learning and has used sites that have various colours of gradings and then moved those coloured monikers around like a “draughtboard boy”. A teenager can do that with 10 minutes training on draughts.
Ferny
#59
still reeling from your KO over n word at #1092 or was it over Chelsea Clinton
and an astute lawyer would have been much better with Obama’s flaws
I’ll say again I think Obama needs John Edwards as a running mate!
Obama/Edwards would grind McCain into the dust and destroy the Republican Party for a generation.
In other words, ignore the facts?
and GG
I’m also ESJ and Glen
Pancho has found his ‘context’ argument on Obama’s dream message exposed as zero and shown as just another Pollie who lies
No Ron, not lost a thing, and I certainly haven’t ‘found’ anything in what you’ve written today.
I do get that you think Hillary will win the primaries and general though. What are you willing to bet?
ps. An avid Hills fan using ‘lier!’ as an attack! That’s great!
Yes Ron, I’m the racist. That’s why I’m backing the black guy. You really need to read context and learn how to mount an argument if you want to play in the deep end Ronnie.
As for Obama’s flaws: I’ve pointed out a few in here. Everything is comparative Ron.
It is imperative, absolutely imperative that Clinton be seen to drop out as a response to defeat, and not due to pressure from outside sources. Indiana is quite simply the best chance to Democrats have of being in a dominant position for the November election
Noocat
#72
Facts are not the forte of Obamabots but coloured draughts apparently are
but even the most basic understanding of them is beyond , which was evident in the ‘analytical’ post
Pancho
#74
you lost the argument and credibility because foreign policy seems alittle hard or precious for Obama and obviously for his supporters. As for betting , i’d normally take your money but then where it it come from
Checkers anybody? LOL
It’s too bizarre, even for my off the wall sense of surrealistic badinage.
Ron at 37
On the advice on fellow contributors and having reviewed you comments from #37 through to #73 I am obliged to decline the invitation.
Got a new name for the Obama supporters here: Obamanoids. Please the date of publication March 5, 2007. So you cannot accused of the author he is jumping on the band wagon. And he is black.
[he has been pretty noncommittal on many issues] – again, who is Obama?
http://www.newmediajournal.us/staff/rush/03052007.htm
Ron,
The “clear alternative” to nuking Hiroshima and Nagasaki was:
1: Just nuking Hiroshima.
2. Dropping a nuke on the top of Mt Fuji (worth a try surely?)
But the real reason why it was dropped had nothing to do with concern for the lives of GIs. The Russians had entered the war and were poised to grab at least the northern half of Japan and all of Korea. It’s always cold hard calculation and geopolitics that leads the likes of Truman (a former card carrying member of the KKK that I’ve read is being proposed as model of what a Democrat should be) to commit mass murder.
I’ll take that as a sidestep Ron.
You can check out Obama’s thoughts on foreign policy here: http://www.barackobama.com/issues/foreignpolicy/ or have a look at this: http://www.amazon.com/Problem-Hell-America-Age-Genocide/dp/0060541644 for some ideas on what the advice he is given might look like.
Ferny
#75
Everything is comparative Ron. not for you lot who distort hillarys comments and then gallingly claimed my concerns about the Pastor were a ONE day wonder and a non issue.
You repeated the process over 7ips-Gate (bitter) were a non issue.
The fact that were not and still are a major issue shows either lacking of political nous issues or blinded view bias or both
#78 Kirri no draughs , you’re not up to checkers
#79 Catrina , welcome to Obamabotic paradise
or Obamanoids (Finns/others patent waiting
#79 – [On the advice on fellow contributors] – So it is not just the PB Obama Mutual Admiration Society, it’s been extended to Obama Mutual Approval Society. Cant you Obamabots think for yourself. Oop, soooorry you are “bot” after all.
Finns, you’re onto a huge story here! As the writer proudly notes, he’s gone mainstream!
‘As a result of the column, the issue has “grown legs”, as they say, in several areas. Last week, it resulted in my being invited on several talk radio programs to discuss my views and an appearance on Fox News’ Hannity & Colmes on February 28.
As Sean Hannity and many people who investigated Trinity United and subsequently wrote to me since February 20 pointed out, their creed and some of their Reverend Jeremiah Wright’s writings smack far more of a black nationalist cult than a Christian Church.’
The Finnigans at 84
I’m perfectly capable of thinking for myself thank you very much. I’m also capable of reading and recognizing content of value as opposed to divisive trash, mud-slinging, and childish attempts at provocation. However – if you wish to brand me amongst those with a favourable opinion of the Obama candidate – please feel free.
84
The Finnigans
nah, she said she actually read Ron’s post and made a decision based on them.
That was too hard for you understand, Finn?
#85 Amigo, as usual, you are missing the point again. Obama’s association with Pastor Wright and his credential were questioned by his fellow black here before the “white” MSM picked it up.
#86 & #87 – [On the advice on fellow contributors] – am i “misreading” something here. please explain.
Yeah, the second half of the sentence. Read on.
‘his fellow black’?
Old folks and trying to get their head around race relations is funny! Come on, you had the 60s Finns, let it go.
Sun. April 27: Obi’s gunna do ‘im slowly.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AvieNCJQ001lV0z32gl3pQUDwLAF
Yummy – I’m being attacked with soundbytes!
Does this mean I’ve actually broken thought the glass ceiling?
“Does this mean I’ve actually broken thought the glass ceiling?”
Catrina, Emma Peel didn’t have one either!
#91, – [Old folks and trying to get their head around race relations is funny!} – oh yes, very funny. like the Black and White Minstrel singing a black song written by a white man:
Old Folks at Home
Way down upond de Swanee ribber,
Far, far away,
Dere’s wha my heart is turning ebber,
Dere’s wha de old folks stay.
All up and down de whole creation,
Sadly I roam,
Still longing for de old plantation,
And for de old folks at home.
chorus:
All de world am sad and dreary,
Ebry where I roam,
Oh! darkeys how my heart grows weary,
Far from de old folks at home.
#93 – [Does this mean I’ve actually broken thought the glass ceiling?] – u mean “falling” through the glass ceiling, not too sure about your “thought” though.
He got blown, and they got blown away:
In the words of Don Hewitt, the former “60 Minutes” producer and an outspoken source here, Ms. Lewinsky “did more to change the world than Cleopatra.” And had President Clinton not jeopardized his own position and his party’s chances in the 2000 presidential election so recklessly, “there’s not one kid who has died in Iraq who wouldn’t be alive today.”
(NYT)
So it appears that not only words have consequences.
What an elliptical connection, but one that surely exposes the often tawdry connection between human failings and history.
FINNS
The PB Obama Mutual Admiration Society AND Obama Mutual Approval Society.
Now because there is anelitist base class involved surely ‘honours’ and the like should be awarded , I mean Kirri has indicated an affinity for ‘mirrors’
Perhaps when there is a mutual admiration seesion, the mirrors just keep rebounding the mutual admiration back & forth around him , like a continuous mirrored dream , perhaps thats how Obama got the dream of the old style but recycled old style but interchangeable old/new style of poliitcs from
The Finnigans at 96
Thanks for spotting that – but you know, the upside of all my mistakes is than nobody is going to accuse me of being elitist (well, maybe not, this is PB land after all).
Finns @ 80
“Obamanoids” from March 2007….lol…slaps knee at the hilarity.
Just what other words are you thumping into google?
Don’t they have an ointment for Obamanoids these days?
Yeah,
What do you do with a pain in the brain?
#101 – FG – yes, go to the chemist and ask for the same for hemorrhoid. tell them that the Obamanoids are a pain in the a**e
FG @ 101 apparently this one works r**tologically speaking of course
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfYaOCzbyDA&feature=related
Hillaroids, Obamanoids, my goodness, we’re getting to the bottom of things now, eh?
Plummeting the psephelogical depths, hey guys?
What’s the matter, got ‘roid rage? Can’t get relief from the factoids from the Obamanoids and it’s giving you acute Hillaroids?
Fear not fellows, a cure is coming soon: Hillaroidadectomy is the newest procedure to give you permanent relief.
(And we’ll be relieved you’re relieved, so we can bloody-well move on ! LOL)
“OidGate”
codger,
here’s another sniffer, just like you
codger,
here’s the link
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/28/2229532.htm?section=wa?section=wa
Are we really heading into a mass outbreak of Hillaside when effective Hillarectomies are available at no cost? We must stand up and recognize this impending Clintastrophe and reach out to these unfortunate individuals – Yes We Can!
Amazing what a little orange county lumber truck seeking & toga lifting turns up eh GG? lol
Jen’s noseclips are a problem but.
Robert
#81
Missed your post , hank you. Are you suggesting without the Russian ‘interest’ ,
Truman would have risked 1 million allied dead on a ground invasion or are you suggesting he’d patiently allow the fire bombing to continue (which would have killed more japenese civilians ) ?
It seems to me none of the choices were palatable but then neither was a conditional ‘truce’. The choices never are. One day shortly I may post my unwelcomed Iran exposure on a dozen issues the Obamabots could have focused on to debate re Hillary’s comments but alas the false one liners on the wrong but most senational grab are easier I guess
GG
#108
You are wicked. you know Codger is a man of few “words”
HarryH
#106
you obviuosly missed my post last night , the Obamabot class level of ‘elitist views’ sorry you were not admitted to because like Obama you require a state of mind (superiority based to the community) which is not based on where you live or your education or upbringing. Obama has it in spades and so do many of his supporters. A snouted view of issues important to the masses
‘you obviuosly missed my post last night’ You certain about that ron?
Robert
oops #111
“unwelcomed” was referring to Obamabots today I was ‘engaging’ and does not refer to you
Ron
you long ago became beyond a joke.
sometimes entertaining though…although mostly just mindnumbingly incoherant.
Codger
#113
You certain about that ron? Yes , and the is a special class called “codger’ with only you in it now. Have been seeking other inductees , even your friend in India who today improved on his sportsmanship reputation but even he refused nomination.
Perhaps you can tell us what Obama should say about nukes & Hillary’s stated policy on it with a detailed explanation as I’ve never heard you make a single policy comment in 3 months
Meanwhile back in gosh land…
http://www.forbes.com/reuters/feeds/reuters/2008/04/28/2008-04-28T135444Z_01_L28246485_RTRIDST_0_IRAQ-OIL-INTERVIEW-PIX.html
No kidding.
HarryH
#115
I think you may misunderstood the enormous task facing the 2 senior Amigos
confronted by you lot of about 25 Obama supporters. Theonly all of you have in common is your support for Obama.
After that, there is a chasm in intellect , debating , ‘class’ , political nous , cutural attitudes , literary snoutism , elitistm, political nuances within the ‘left’ spectrum , and indeed ‘rationale’ then the snipers , the one line gigs..strs etc
Within these groupings the Amigos have to respond at the appropriate level
and Obama classifications assist. Indeed some Obama supporters are not even Obamabots or further Obamanoids. But overall obamahas a dream , “yes we can”
I know what Hillary can achieve as POTUS
HaaryH , but specifially after 6 months of POTUS Obama vs a comparative POTUS Hillary , what will Obama have achieved in policy for the American people that is different ??? the truth is none of you have ever said , thats a con
and do not quote from Obama’s site …a geek wrote
Dear ron/Ron @116
‘a special class called “codger’ ‘ Thankyou, but not in any kinda sorta elitist way, know what I mean? Pal, sunshine?
‘you make a single policy comment’ I’m not a candidate ron/Ron; so your point is?
But I must confess that I do find it interesting as you move (slip/run) to your end of the stick, grip by grip… & fun.
No you misunderstood Codger , the class was called ‘codger’ in your honour covering attributes but others who were there have moved like js. The policy comment was you have not said any of Obama’s that you support
…except ‘yes , we can’ whatever that means , so I was asking you for just
one other Obama policy..healthcare ?
Ron #111 “Are you suggesting without the Russian ‘interest’ ,
Truman would have risked 1 million allied dead on a ground invasion or are you suggesting he’d patiently allow the fire bombing to continue (which would have killed more japenese civilians ) ?”
Short answer – yes to the first and he couldn’t have given a toss about the second, which had already been carried out without any moral qualms. But you haven’t addressed my main answer. They could have methodically demonstrated the power of the bomb on uninhabitated areas and tested whether the Japanese realised what that meant. They never considered doing so because the main imperative was time. The Russians were better placed to launch an assault via Sakhalin on Hokkaido and may have grabbed Japan and its excellent industrial infrastructure (as well as all the coal and steel in Manchuria and Korea) before the west. So the largest intact city in Japan was obliterated to demonstrate the effect of the bomb as quickly as possible. And the sole motive was to forestall the Russians.
Do I think the subsequent conseqent obliteration of a city was morally indefensible? Yes.
Do I think that Hillary Clinton threatening to nuke a country that doesn’t have nukes and is not even involved in aggression against any other country is sick and twisted and a reason for not supporting her, even if you and the rest of her supporters could convince me she was somehow more electable than Obama? Yes.
Do I think that Reverend Wright is not “racist” because he dislikes the state that enslaved his ancestors, and has spent the last 50 years backing dictatorships, installing dictatorships, and bombing civilians? Yes.
Do I think that Obama is “elitist” for suggesting that poor whites cling to religion and guns?
No. Because I think that hostility to gay marriage or an affection for automatic weapons as a motive for voting by a demographic that has witnessed a ten year freeze on minimum pay and continues to suffer the consequence of no welfare state and privatised healthcare is “false consciousness”, or whatever you want to term it. It is in any case bloody stupid. I would say that to the ten pin bowling cheese-fry eaters to their face, because I’m not an elitist. I don’t want the working class to be bamboozled; I want them to rip the throats out of the real elitists – the Cheney’s the Bush’s and, yes, even the Clintons.
Robert
#122
I presume its reasonable that I can put some other views to your blog.
At this hour last time you shot a good salvo and then reasonably went to sleep due t the hour
If I reply now you’ll be ‘gone’ whiich is fair enough , but will you subsequently respond Robert to my reply Robert?
ron/Ron
You must have missed my 3 choice no choice etc, everyone here is familiar with that if not favourable…
So, as I’m not familiar with js ’s movements etc…please explain omg
What is it you are asking me to endorse? Warning I’m now expensive. (special class, no less) But don’t for one minute let this deter you.
PS Mr Bollard, do you ever miss?
Oh golly!
Obama has just racked up 1,443,759 independent financial contributors.
What’s the number on the Hillary Clinton side?
Oh really, to all those folks getting excited over how many different contributers Obama has, let me remind you that Howard Dean had raised the most money and had the most contributers up until February 2004. What a comparison!
Mornin’ All,
In the Red Corner: Cat’s got Johnny Bomb Bomb’s tongue as War-Shill rort shelved!
In the Blue Corner: Candidates expess “Courageous Indignation” a week after the story broke bigtime.
Ain’t democracy grand? Especially when a lot more voters than usual are beginning to pay attention.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/pentagon-suspends-militar_n_98985.html
The crucial POTUS question that has not been answered adequately beyond a projection screen for other people’s dream and fantasy: WHo is Obama?
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5g2e1lbP_svK6gmzwCt5ebrNhvxuw
Robert Bollard,
The Soviets declared war on Japan on August 8, two days after the first atomic bomb was dropped.
So your contention that the Soviet threat was the sole reason for Truman’s action seems pretty questionable to me. But sure, I have no doubt the Russians were a factor in his thinking.
I suspect, though, the main reason was Truman’s desire to spare his own forces and get the whole thing over with quickly. Now whether that is morally defensible reasoning, in view of the civilian deaths and devastation the bombs caused, is debatable.
The Lady has been pronounced dead and gone long time back. But she is fighting back. There is no question the tide is turning. The tipping point has arrived. One week before Indiana Jones and Sweet Carolina, the Pastor is trying to extend his 15mins of fame into 15 hours. How can this be any help to Obama.
The voters are now seeing the fundamentals emerging:
* Hillary, with all her flaws, is tough, fighter and a doer.
* Obama – unknown, who is Obama? no ticker, a show pony, a projection screen, and full of the Wright stuff
* McCain? well, let not get started.
So who are you gunna call?
A very good day to all, especially my two amigos, GG and Ron.
AP Poll: Clinton leads McCain, doing better than Obama, By LIZ SIDOTI – 40 minutes ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Hillary Rodham Clinton now leads John McCain by 9 points in a head-to-head presidential matchup, according to an Associated Press-Ipsos poll that bolsters her argument that she is more electable than Democratic rival Barack Obama.
Obama and Republican McCain are running about even.
The survey released Monday gives the New York senator and former first lady a fresh talking point as she works to raise much-needed campaign cash and persuade pivotal undecided superdelegates to side with her in the drawn-out Democratic primary fight.
Helped by independents, young people and seniors, Clinton gained ground this month in a hypothetical match with Sen. McCain, the GOP nominee-in-waiting. She now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Both Democrats were roughly even with McCain in the previous poll about three weeks ago.
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iP6aoeuUCqIEo5DHDOCMLHyUOCpgD90B3O400
Did I say that Obama’s average lead had bottomed out on 6%? Wrong. There’s more movement on RCP:
Obama’s lead over Hillary in the national poll avergage has gone from 6.6% yesterday to 5.8% today – down from 10.5% just before PA.
In Indiana RCP is now showing BHO & HRC tied, after showing a 3% lead to Obama over the last few days. The shift is due to a SurveyUSA poll showing Clinton now has a 9% led in the Hoosier State.
NC has been stable on 15.5% for the last week, but has now narrowed to 12.3%.
And, mainly thanks to Rev Wright’s reappearance, the Hillary Deathwatch has increased her chances from 11.9 over the weekend to 12.4%
The Kid still has the lead – but he does have a fight on his hands.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
http://www.slate.com/id/2190118/
Finns, Great get my neoncob friend.
Just heard the Rev Wright on AM. Boy, Has he got Obama stitched.
1. Obama repudiates him and he goes feral. Also raises questions about his sitting lamb like at his feet for twenty years.
2. Obama ignores himand people conclude Obama supports the Rev’s philosophy.
I guess, seeing as you were so wrong about the Wright effect on Obama’s polling the first time around (remember all that post-Wright polling, from everyone from FOX to Gallup showing Obama being the one with the bounce one week after its momentus breaking?) makes you assume you’ll be right now. I’m just happy sitting back waiting for y’all to tire yourselves out, as a record of ill predictions don’t seem to be doing much.
In other news, another member of what is referred to as the Bush Senior realist foreign policy establishment (i.e. the wing of the Republican Party remaining some credibility) is in line with Obama: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/brent-scowcroft-echoes-ob_n_99026.html
An SD announcement each way – great to see those overall numbers falling, bringing us closer to the end, and removing some of the perceptions of a smoky back-room. And helping to kill off one Clinton false narrative:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/03/north-carolina-primary-ne_n_94961.html, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/obama-endorsed-by-new-mex_n_99020.html
And to add to Obama’s bad news day, former Edwards supporter and Governor of NC, Mike Easley, is set to endorse Hillary Clinton today. The Governor is a super delegate.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/news/ap/politics/2008/Apr/28/apnewsbreak__gov__easley_to_endorse_clinton.html
Neoncob? Sounds like a flourescent corn stalk
You old rockers will be into this one:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5iiAP2ZVSjIIs0FiGooXf8TcelvBwD90AO9SG0
‘Roger Waters plays `Dark Side,’ unleashes giant pig…The underside of the pig simply read “Obama” with a checked ballot box alongside.’
Not sure I like the association of Obama with a flying pig
The dilemma of the Democratic race:
… [Obama & Clinton] are confronted by a Hobson’s Choice: Act selfishly and cause collective disaster, or act altruistically and aid someone else who is acting selfishly. Either way, selfishness wins.
“The way the system is set up, the more-selfish person has a higher probability of winning,” social psychologist W. Keith Campbell said of the Democratic primary. “You end up with the more narcissistic, belligerent candidate.”
Which explains the narrowing
Link for the above:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/27/AR2008042701660.html
138 Ferny
It could be viewed as an example of game theory, in this case Prisoner’s Dilemma. The candidates have to either cooperate (not go negative) or defect (go negative).
“Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal: if one testifies (”defects”) for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence. If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge. If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must make the choice of whether to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act? ”
So far, Obama has been cooperating (simplistically) and Hillary has been defecting (simplistically). Obama’s strategy is a loser mathematically. There have been endless articles written about the best strategy when playing this game (they have tournaments!!). Overall, the winner is always “Tit-for-Tat”, where the prisoner’s next move is to do what the other prisoner did last time. That means it’s time for Obama to attack.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner’s_dilemma
After having a look through Anne Davies factually incorrect piece here: http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/obama-pastor-hits-out-again/2008/04/29/1209234801321.html, I challenge anyone to have a look through Wright’s speech to the NAACP [http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/wright.transcript/index.html?iref=werecommend] and tell me where the basis for the story is. Or is it just lazy journalism perhaps? Oh well, let’s go another round in this game.
I assume that her comment here
Is about his answers to the question he is unpatriotic:
‘I feel that those citizens who say that have never heard my sermons, nor do they know me. They are unfair accusations taken from soundbites and that which is looped over and over again on certain channels. I served six years in the military. Does that make me patriotic? How many years did [Vice President Dick] Cheney serve?’ – Nb: Wright was a Marine for 6 years and served in Vietnam. Cheney dodged the draft about a half dozen times.
There’s more of his ‘flippant sarcasm’ here to have a look at: http://blogs.usatoday.com/onpolitics/2008/04/rev-wright-hope.html?loc=interstitialskip
Then Davies presents a leading conclusion
I though I’d have a look through some news at this all consuming story. Well, FOX is in there with a story hilarious in its own myriad ways [http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,352945,00.html], but CNN appears to have a descriptive (and impressed) piece on Wright’s address [http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/wright.npc/index.html], and its comments page shows a more nuanced approach to Wright than we had the first time around when conservative pundits greatly exaggerated reports of Obama’s demise [http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/wright.reactions/index.html]. At least half the comments seem positive.
So this is the mainstream take. I won’t get into the biased liberals like the NYT, Washington Post or the Huffington Post, cos we can all guess what they would say.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think this is a positive for Obama, but I think a little pause before another round of unfounded and ultimately placed ‘haha! gotchas!’ is wheeled out might be helpful.
when I hear the Wright stuff rehashed I think of porky piers and Hiener. Sheer desparation
I hope this gets a good run in the US press. And Dolly Downer can hang his head in shame.
Colonel Moe Davis testified overnight that evidence for the war crimes tribunals was obtained through prisoner abuse, and political appointees and higher-ranking officers pushed prosecutors to file charges before trial rules were even written.
David Hicks was wrongly charged, says Guantanamo prosecutor
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23615751-5006301,00.html
Anyone care to slash those odds on a Democratic President even further:
‘McCain held fast, rejecting the very policy he urges today. “I not only think we could get along without it, but I think one of our big problems has been the fact that many Iraqis resent American military presence,” he responded. “And I don’t pretend to know exactly Iraqi public opinion. But as soon as we can reduce our visibility as much as possible, the better I think it is going to be.”
The January 2005 comments, which have not surfaced previously during the presidential campaign, represent a stunning contrast to McCain’s current rhetoric.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/mccain-strongly-rejected_n_99082.html
In U.S. campaign parlance, I believe this is prime flip-flopping. And we haven’t even started.
Robert Boland #122
Re a/ Frisco ‘bitter’ speech and b/ Rev Wright Pastor (1 of 3)
A/ Robert: “Do I think that Obama is “elitist” for suggesting that poor whites cling to religion and guns (plus my addition: “who are also bitter , have antipathy to people you do not look like them & have anti immigrant sentiment”) ? No….. Its for reasons “false consciousness”
Ron: “Elitist” (the Free Dictionary) is a person who believes he is part of a class with perceived superiority in intellect , social status or money , deserving of favoured treatment compared to all others
For Obama to talk in faraway San Francisco to a bunch of rich Californian donators about a group of working class peoples living in mid west towns in Ohio etc , in and with such derogatory and condescending manner and descriptions
fits the ‘elitist’ description accurately. For mine therefore Obama is an ‘elitist’
and so I completely disagree with you
(ps/ why is he standing for POTUS holding such superiority views of people)
b/ Robert: “Reverend Wright is not “racist”
Ron: the issue is not Rev Wright but Obama. The issue is not if Wright is a ‘racist’. The issue is Obama , the Candidate for POTUS
Obama himself at Philly publicly said he sat sermons but privately disagreeing with some of Wrights racial and anti American sermon comments. Then Obama in the same speech said he condemned the Pastor’s “racially divisive” comments and ‘grossly’ “anti American” comments. A week later , Obama ‘disowned’ the whole thrust of Wright’s racial and anti American sermon thrust.
The issues for Obama are
1/ Why sit for 20 years privately disagreeing with racial and anti American sermons you now condemn. These were not one off comments but part of the thrust of Wrights sermon messages
2/ Which Pastor comments does Obama regard as “racially divisive” comments and which ones does Obama regard as ‘grossly’ “anti American so we know which are OK by Obama’s “standards” and which are not. For a potential POTUS voters are entitled to know his standards. Obama has deceivingly & disingenuously deliberately avoided clarifying this
3/ How can Obama claim he has judgement when as a US Senator he sits for 20 years listening to such divisive comments which he privately disagreed with & now years later publicly condemns.
4/ How can America with a strongly mainstream based society (in theory) be represented by a POTUS taught & presumably who will practice as POTUS non mainstream cultural attitudes and standards.
5/ Is a POTUS promising at Philly “a more perfect Union” fair dinkum in his message consistent with the same man attending Wright’s sermons for 20 years preaching what Obama now says are racially divisive and anti American comments , so bad Obama has to publicly condemn them.
6/ How weak are Obama’s convictions seeing he can keep attending sermonds that on race & American grounds he privately listened to & only now publicly condemns
The 6 Pastor issues above reek of grossly poor judgement , lack of serious convictions , double standards , cynical political expediency and a phony a more perfect union message given to voters disenchanted with the current status.
Therefore I disagree with you & think Obama is unsuitable for POTUS compared to Hillary on these & other grounds
When Obama can finally start campaigning for the general election, I have little doubt McCain will be under enormous pressure – the inconsistencies in his positions on a number of policy fronts, his pro-bomb Iran stance, plus some pretty dodgy ideas, like removing Russia from the G8, and much more – will make it easy for Obama to make McCain himself an issue in this election, especially because he is far better placed to take the moral high ground on a number of fronts than Hillary can.
The stuff over Wright and other manufactured scandals regarding Obama will be seen for the smear and fear nonsense that they are, just as Australians eventually saw through the Liberal Party’s attempts to smear their opponents with any piece of dirt they could find.
140 Diog
Yes I know of the theory.
But really – if the only way to beat the devil is to become the devil, surely everyone loses. If it held true then there would be no advancement for humanity. In fact, there would NEVER have been any advancement and we would still be governed entirely by our basest instincts.
In Obama’s case, if the only way to beat Hillary is to become Hillary then he will lose his current support base who are believing he is the one chance, probably in their lifetime, to show that politics can rise above self-interest. If he’s gonna preach values then he needs to model it or lose credibility.
Ferny- While we are not there yet, we now have a firm date for it to end by. McAuliffe, who seems quite likeable and competent, promises it will all be over by June 15th and that it won’t go to Denver. This stuffs up my prediction but is good news for the Democrats.
McAuliffe Adopts June 15th as Deadline for Superdelegate Endorsements?
http://www.dailykos.com/
Ron, you better beat Hillary with the same moral club you use on Obama. I bet she’d crumble first.
Ron & GG, when do you think Obama will concede? He is in BIG trouble. More later………
Terry McAuliffe, former Dem national chairman and Hillary supporter? I don’t think even he will be able to stop Hillary taking the show to Denver if she has a mind to. And I’ve a feeling that she won’t quit till every vote is cast – and even then there’s always the Mugabe option.
Still rolling out the dung Finns?
#152 FG – [Still rolling out the dung Finns?] – i just love it when you do your dirty talk like, because i know you ain’t got nothing else to say. Deep down you know your candidate is in big trouble and doomed.
Pancho @ 133,
Here’s a fairly understated article on the effect of the Rev.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/roughsketch/2008/04/obamas_pastor_reignites_race_c.html
151 Ferny
McAuliffe isn’t just a Hillary supporter. He is the chairman of her campaign. If he says it, she must have told him to. June 15th is only 6 weeks or so.
The end is nigh!
Finns,
I expect that Obama will soldier on to the convention. He is a party destroyer because he wants to exercise his democratic right to stay on and not hand the nomination to the only viable Democratic candidate. Just shows he has absolutely no character and is in the race for his own selfish reasons.
No one would ever write that sort of stuff about Hillary, eh.
You make me laugh Finns. All you’ve ever done is roll out the Wright issue, the bitter issue and drolled with delight at the scraps tossed to you by the conservative press. Do you ever analyse anything? Think independently? Nup – just roll out the dung.
Obama is still in front Finns. He’s in a fight, that’s what these contests are about. But his lead is still unassailable. It’s just a shame that our democarcies have decended to dumping any old sh*t on good people and passing it off as political analysis.
If McAuliffe says it will end June 15 at the latest that is fantastic news.
If their is a 3rd wheel in the Clinton duopoly it is Terry McAuliffe.
Harry/Diog – it also indicates that Hillary is feeling very positive
*there
#157 FG, yes, [Obama is still in front Finns]
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Apr. 28 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 291 McCain 237 Ties 10
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 284 McCain 244 Ties 10
Apr. 19 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 289 McCain 239 Ties 10
Apr. 28 – Electoral Votes: Obama 243 McCain 269 Ties 26
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 259 Ties 15
Apr. 19 – Electoral Votes: Obama 260 McCain 254 Ties 24
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Not really Ferny.
If she took this to the convention it would be political suicide.
It just shows she is not totally insane…although that seemed open to debate yesterday.
GG@154 – that blog is even easier to pull apart than the Anne Davies article, because when the writer is able to stop being mortally wounded and presents Wright’s words in the same piece, we see that they do not align with his charges.
Those charges – at the top of the article – being:
Let’s go through those:
1. “Wright praised Louis Farrakhan”
Wright’s comments: ‘I’ve said, as I said on Bill Moyers, when Louis Farrakhan speaks, it’s like E.F. Hutton speaks, all black America listens. Whether they agree with him or not, they listen.’
(not from the article)
2. “defended the view that Zionism is racism”
Wright: ‘”Louis said 20 years ago that Zionism, not Judaism, was a gutter religion. He was talking about the same thing United Nations resolutions say, the same thing now that President Carter’s being vilified for and Bishop Tutu’s being vilified for. And everybody wants to paint me as if I’m anti-Semitic because of what Louis Farrakhan said 20 years ago.’
3. “repeated his view that the government created the AIDS virus to cause the genocide of racial minorities”
Wright: ‘I believe our government is capable of doing anything’ (What a leap!)
4. “stood by other past remarks (”God damn America”)”
Wright: ‘Jesus said, ‘Do unto others as you would have them do unto you.’ You cannot do terrorism on other people and expect it never to come back on you. Those are biblical principles, not Jeremiah Wright bombastic divisive principles.’
5. “held himself out as a spokesman for the black church in America.”
‘This is not an attack on Jeremiah Wright,” the minister said. “It is an attack on the black church.” He positioned himself as a mainstream voice of African American religious traditions. “Why am I speaking out now?” he asked. “If you think I’m going to let you talk about my mama and her religious tradition, and my daddy and his religious tradition and my grandma, you got another thing coming.’
Yep. Again, nothing.
Those numbers mean nothing yet Finns, for reasons that have been spelled out , but you are still unable to understand.
As your girl said, it’s all about the delegates. Of course she said that a while ago before it really WAS all about the delegates. And on that score, she’s miles behind.
Miles.
Psst, Finns – the Democratic party doesn’t yet decide its Presidential nominee on a modelling of State polling put together by an amateur psephologist, no matter how talented the lad. Unfortunately for the hat you’ll be eating by June, if not May, it comes down to delegates won in a highly organised series of contests designed over a long time.
By the way, Finns – what does electoral vote.com tell us about the voting intentions in Indiana and NC re Clinton or Obama vs McCain? Just to keep it on point.
Finns
Just as a point of interest, run your mouse over all the Republican “barely’s” against Obama and see how many are only 1%. And the pollster is generally Rasmussen. Rasmussen polls are Republican favourable.
Then run the mouse over Clinton’s “barely’s” against McCain and see how many are only 1%. And the pollster is generally SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA polls are Clinton favourable.
I’m sure if you used an msnbc polled map or a newsweek map, Obama would be streets ahead.
Just a point of interest.
When this becomes a 2 horse race..Republican Party(winner McCain) against Democratic Party(winner Obama) you will see where the country stands and it will be ugly for McCain and his Republican Party.
Pancho,
I accept that you seriously think that your “pull a part analysis” is full of self evident truths. However, with that sort of helpful defence, Obama won’t be elected dog catcher.
Next you’ll be telling everyone that Wright’s a plus for Obama and should maybe be his VP.
A bit of Wiki-trivia regarding the greatest country on earth:
On this day in 1770 – British explorer James Cook and the crew of HM Bark Endeavour made their first landfall on Australia on the coast of Botany Bay near present-day Sydne
Yeah Pancho – don’t let the facts get in the way of the story!
Here’s another measured anaysis of the situation in the US.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/gerard-henderson/obama-strays-from-the-rudd-manual/2008/04/28/1209234759190.html
FINNS
in the body of your the AAP article
Associated Press 29/4/08:
Also on Monday, the head of the Republicans’ House campaign committee said the party would rather face Obama in November because the GOP believes Clinton would be more of a threat to McCain among moderate voters.
Said Tom Cole, a congressman from Oklahoma: Obama “is by any definition very liberal, to the left of Hillary Clinton, in a center-right country. That is very, very helpful to us.”
Sounds like Hillary i more electable than Obama
GG – the result speak for themselves and the words are on the page. I’m not attempting to provide a ‘helpful defence’, just analysing what is, with a memory of how wrong every past prediction of what Wright would do to Obama has been.
I stated at the outset that this was not a positive for Obama, but when the frothing at the mouth stopped for a minute, it would be seen for the blip it is.
And just to return serve – I also seriously believe you think that Hillary is still in this race. Funny as that is, maybe if she did run for dogcatcher she’d have a chance of winning an election this year.
More on the helpful Rev.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23615610-5013948,00.html
You Obamabots should remember that POTUS election is not about issues, it’s about the person as POTUS. It’s about Personality, character, judgement, connectivity, look and feel.
GG – The measured Gerard Henderson! I am getting a laugh out of your quirky takes.
Finns – when recession bites, and the war gets old – as was the case in Australia – those issues get a bit more of a run – as has been the case in the US. You also seem to be forgetting that this ain’t the POTUS contest. Its the Democratic Party’s nomination.
Ron, that would explain why the GOP ads in Indiana and NC are attacking Obama.
Pancho,
My take is and was that the “Rev” was a sleeper issue that was always going to emerge and seriously damage Obama at some stage. It is just that I did not expect Wright to be orchestrator of the emergence. He is clearly enjoying the publicity and looks like continuing with his campaign to maximise the embarrassment to Obama.
In the article @ 174, the following is quoted:
“David Axelrod, Mr Obama’s chief strategist, did little to conceal his dismay at the re-emergence of Mr Wright into the spotlight with three high-profile appearances in as many days”.
Obviously, the Obama insiders are worried about his influence on the campaign. But, you seem to know better.
Good for you!
I feel Philly Speech Mark 2 is coming
Pancho
for a guy who is defending Wright and Obama , then my 6 questions showing fundamental flaws exposed Obama/Wright in #145 should be easy to demolish
But Obama supporters when tested can never defend these Wright issues and never have. You guys said 8 weeks ago it was a one day wonder & non issue
How wrong you were
Ferny Grover #149
“Ron, you better beat Hillary with the same moral club you use on Obama. I bet she’d crumble first”
In other words you can not defend the Obama flaws I’ve listed, otherwise you would
OK GG – for the third time: “I stated at the outset that this was not a positive for Obama”. I can mix the words up into some sort of puzzle if engagement would help.
Here is a great article – pretty funny too – well worth a look: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/28/165538/015/404/505047
(Avert your eyes Finns – lefties at work)
“What’s all this, then?
I go away for a nice little weekend with my family, and I come back to the internets and it’s like 28 Days Later or 28 Weeks Later, except it’s only 4 days later, and instead of the “rage” virus, everyone has been infected with “chickenshit Democrat hand-wringing” virus.
Well, pardon my French, but f@ck that noise.”
Lets just hope we don’t get Clinton Iran speech Mark 2.
Ron – I’ve wasted so much time I ain’t gonna see again. Because you place the goalposts in…I don’t even know where, doesn’t mean that is where the debate is. I don’t intend to respond to whatever you have put down because I have already, time and time again. If you want my responses to the exact same questions you must have posed a dozen times, have a scroll back through the answers that have been given to you.
Are you treating silence as affirmation again Ron??
GG
#154
First FINNS with his magical AAP Poll and now you with the Pastor on video/audio
at the National Press Club. and my sin was to not to be aware of such damning evidence when I posted my #145 blog listing the 6 Obama flaws from Wright
What can I say ? forgive me for not checking the 2 senior Amigos blogs first
What thePastor has done is to completely confirm from his own mouth the 6 flaws I listed …but more , the Pastor has exposed further Obama flaws ,
and the Obamabots ? would you wish me to detail these additional ones ?
If Obama did not have most of the ‘left leaning’ media as his supporters , he would be conceding today such is the political damage. Cann’t you see the Repugs replaying this eye opener repeatedly in the months ahead !
Pancho
#184
“I’ve answered to the exact same questions “.
Some are new today. Had you used Ferny’s standard defence of ‘what I wrote is not worth replying to’ , you may have avoided the comment you made.
In any event , for your benefit , I’ve submitted that Obama has demonstrated
gross lack of judgement , weakness in his own convictions values and inconsistency to his a more complete union message etc backed up by examples. Now if you think the examples in #145 are flawed you could say why,
(but you have never done so despite your claims otherwise , had you done so I would either have agreed with your view or be quoting your view and debating it…have never got that far. I’m not saying you have to answer any question at all but if you do not , then I’m also entitled to point that out
One for the Hill Shills
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruqA2lQEhDg
An interesting article by Shaun Carney in today’s Age about Bill and Hillary’s blurring of reality and fantasy in a desperate need to feel like winners:
“The position of the Clinton campaign now is that Hillary leads Obama on the popular vote not because she does but because she and Bill can no longer accept that she does not.”
Seems Carney also agrees that Hillary will take this to the convention, no matter what:
“If the Clintons will go to these lengths, there is no reason to expect that they will withdraw from the battle with Obama any time soon — or any time at all, really.”
And just another hint of the self-destructive nature of Hillary that many of us have already identified:
“To get a sense of the effect of the Clintons’ wild-eyed refusal to accept the likelihood of defeat, consider the reversal taking place among African-Americans. The black community was always a rusted-on constituency of Bill Clinton’s. Early in the contest, most blacks stuck with Hillary, believing Obama wasn’t “black” enough. Now, they’re solidly in Obama’s camp and are appalled at the Clintons’ trashing of him. The Clintons don’t seem to care. They’re a couple with big appetites and it’s the fighting to sustain their view of themselves as indomitable that they love more than anything else.”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/its-all-about-the-clintons/2008/04/28/1209234757220.html
143
Diogenes
The biggest irony Dio, is that Moe Davis is (or maybe was??) a staunch conservative who at one time wanted to charge Mori (Hicks’ lawyer) for bad mouthing the President, or some such, as I recall.
He ain’t no ‘ignorant loathing leftie’ is my point, not that there’s anything wrong with that. It appears to me that ignorance is not unequally distributed across the political spectrum.
Now that Jeremiah Wright has become a de facto candidate, when do you think the story about him visiting a strip club will surface?
Did he look?
Did he touch?
Oh my god, I’m just so tantalized by this newest revelation, and what it means to that guy, what’s his name, oh, yeah, that Obama.
How’s Obama going to deal with that, eh? Does that mean Obama is a sexist piggy?
Tune in to Faux News, where they can discuss it around the clock, and now, from our correspondent in Indiana to discuss how this breaking news is affecting the clean living families of the Hoosier state….
Updates on the super delegate front from the DCW …
Obama picks up two new super delegates Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) and Fmr. DNC Chairman Paul Kirk (MA). This brings the gap between Obama and Clinton down to 20. This number does not include Gov. Easley (because that’s scheduled for tomorrow). If we also take into account the Pelosi club (superdelegates committed to supporting the candidate with the most pledged delegates) the difference drops down to 10 super delegates for Clinton.
“Hillary once said it takes a village to raise a child. Now she seems determined to destroy the village in order to save it.”
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/apr/28/hillaryclinton.usa
189
Noocat
It’s the archetypal Neocon position: reality is what we think it is, and you can go take a leap.
(This was actually said by someone, either Cheney or a clone, but essentially that was the message. We act on our beliefs and that makes the reality you get to report on. Well, how well has that worked in say Iraq????????????????)
To adopt this posture is to ape Bush. That is, I’m well informed, the correct verb.
“It’s the archetypal Neocon position: reality is what we think it is, and you can go take a leap.”
Ah, so you are a neoncon KR.
GG at 195
And here was I thinking this was the archetypal Neocon …
Pancho @ 182
That article’s a well delivered half-time face slap. Reminds me of what we were saying on PB back in December/January about what they would throw at Obama, and how difficult it would be:
“You knew that this man–this African American man who dared to challenge, who had the audacity to challenge existing power structures and ideas and the way of doing business–you knew that this man was going to be attacked, and derided, and ridiculed, and scorned.
You knew that his kind of thinking would make too many enemies.
You knew that they would throw more than the kitchen sink at him–you knew that their goal was to make it such that he would feel that the whole of the moon and the stars had fallen upon him. ”
To his exemplary credit Obama has sailed on through, largely undistracted, with his support intact. Great credit must also be given to the American voters for seeing through the Rovian scumbag tactics so far.
What we didn’t know in December was how much those same tactics would be used by Hillary Clinton.
Just want to point out that Clinton is now leading McCain by 3% in national polls, whilst Obama is only leading McCain by 1.5% (based on RCP Average).
Also worth noting is that Clinton is doing better than Obama vs McCain in the 3 crucial states of OH, PA (where she is leading McCain, but Obama isn’t) and FL (where she’s down by 0.3 whilst Obama is down by 11.7).
The “swing” states where Obama is perfoming better are the smaller states of MI and WI (based on Electoral Vote). However, it is also worth noting that Clinton is doing better in the classic bellweather state of MO (also Electoral Vote).
And, of course, it’s also worth noting that Clinton is narrowing Obama’s lead in the national Democratic polls, in NC and in IN…
We’ve already covered all that today SL
JV,
Fine rhetoric. Are you seriously proposing that Hillary has forced Wright to appear over the last few days?
Your hatred of Hillary is leading you to some ridiculous conclusions.
On rewiring yer garden gnome variety McBomb-Bomb.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/mccain-strongly-rejected_n_99082.html
FG @ 199,
Fair enough (and my apologies).
That said, it’s always worth repeating the good news
Ferny #199
‘We’ve already covered all that today SL’
No we have not.
That was rather a trife ‘down puting ‘to Swing Lowe , even had we covered it all the 25 odd of Obama supporters often repeat the same thing each….
NOTE
The GOOD News for Obama is as we’ve said for 8 weeks he will still win the delgate count by about 2% and the popular count incl Michigan & Florida by about 1% as at the Convention. The bad news WAS for the same 8 weeks we’ve said Hillary is far more electable in most key marginal states vs McCain not just on polls but on demographics & other measures (sorry Kirri patented). The change today withe the Pastor video is the Sd’s have not only the least electable in Obama but also one thats now seriously politically ‘tainted’ on video that can not be disputed (it may or may not be be too late for Hillary) but not for McCain who will replay it on TV ads repeatedly
Well quoting secondhand information from the age or youtube is not really using accurate references. For pundits who can waste all day blogging here or elsewhere how long is a piece of string? – too long if it is based on second rate blogs or sound bites.
Then can anyone tell me how calling someone a bot of either HRC or Obama ilk helps any debate or blog?
The best resources include CBS, CNN, NBC and Huff Post – for a view from both sides – otherwise it gets too much to follow.
While not really a big fan of Obama I dont like Clinton much especially, just wait until all her shady dealings get out and about if by a fluke she won the nomination – and dont even get me started about how Bill cannot keep his zipper up.
As for Obama, this Renzko trial has turned into a fizzer, with the only new name dredged up lately to be that of – believe it or not – Karl Rove.
The Rev Wright saga has gone on long enough, remember he is the FORMER pastor – so why would you leave a church if you know in a few months he will be gone? Also PA Gov Rendell – who endorsed Clinton – has previously praised Rev Wright, so double standards anyone? The critics of this Rev Wright business need to read or listen to the ENTIRE sermon – yes it is long but at least you can get the context, though admittedly this has happened also with Clinton’s Bomb Iran comment – play the whole statement and see how your opinion changes.
The so-called elitist tag is pure drivel, given that only the rich, determined and select few get to presidential primaries let alone elections. Obama does not have $10M in the bank, but HRC and McCain are worth at least $100M each. Senior politics IS an Elitist occupation, but some are better than others at hiding from this tag. The Bitter comment – was just that – a bitter and ironic comment because he could not get a certain section of voters to vote for him. Then there is the so-called talk between a Obama advisor and a Canadian trade official “off the record” has turned out to be another red herring.
The point to remember with PA is that it is basically HRC”s true home state – where she has extensive family and political ties – for a new candidate like Obama to lose to the DEM’s power couple in their stronghold by only 9.2% is actually quite remarkeable.
So what if Obama has lost half his lead in national approvals? – the nomination is set by delegates, and Hilary will not catch him even at 60 40 split for the last states, and she does not have even that chance. Obama’s campaign wouild have to bomb totally, with him forced to withdraw before HRC can win at this stage.
As for the SD’s overturning the popular vote – no chance – in point of fact many SD’s for HRC can and will bail to Obama anytime they like in June or July. Also the Clinton campaign is broke – even after the PA win and $10m funds comming in afterwards. All Obama has to do is keep his guard up, avoid debates – why would you debate again after 21 debates when you will win anyway? -, and run out winner on points.
Finally HRC has burnt to much political credibility during her fight for PA, as a DEM smashing another DEM around too much is real bad Karma for the SD’s, as this basically gives them more to use against her before and during their national convention.
HA! Fair enough SL….repeat away!
Ron, you might want to refresh your memory with my #131 and a few others added by other bloggers. We have covered today’s polls and, as you will see, I noted that they are not favourable to Obama. So … I’m not being ‘trife’ – or even trite, down puting – or down putting, to SL.
GG, that’s a strange conclusion you draw from JV’s comments.
Is/Are there any video/images of Obama with Wright?
Ron at 145
You may want to check your facts – according to the reporter that broke the California story – none of the people in the room looked ‘rich’ and according to David Coleman (someone in the room during the meeting) there was nothing elitist in the conversation. You may want to read his article to get a better idea of the person to whom you are so ready to slur so frequently.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-coleman/i-was-there-what-obama-re_b_96553.html
Several YoHoHo.
Well Swing Lowe
90% of your blog (reprinted below) has NOT been previously discussed today
but who cares , now i’ve got the chance to repeat the 90% again, as its good
“Also worth noting is that Clinton is doing better than Obama vs McCain in the 3 crucial states of OH, PA (where she is leading McCain, but Obama isn’t) and FL (where she’s down by 0.3 whilst Obama is down by 11.7).
The “swing” states where Obama is perfoming better are the smaller states of MI and WI (based on Electoral Vote). However, it is also worth noting that Clinton is doing better in the classic bellweather state of MO (also Electoral Vote)”
Welcome aboard Keep on Topic. Good sentiment in the moniker.
Finns pointed that out earlier Ron. And we had quite a discussion as to why such polls are irrelevant until the Dem nomination is finalised. But we’ve said that….over and over and over.
Keep On Topic
Welcome and thanks for the post. The arguments on here are getting ridiculous.
We are all rusted ons and getting very boring.
Great to get a fresh and accurate insight.
The odds were about 25 of you lot to the 3 Amigos , now 26
No problem .
Catrina
#207
you’ve scoured for a backdated article thats 16 days old.
To use pancho’s definition of this writer “tarnished image’
Also to quote this pro Obama writer he said then quote
“No tape of that conversation has emerged as yet” (hoping none would)
Sorry , since has ! after his article 14/4/08 , real pro
Ron – I have never commented about that writer.
The big three states are all doable by November even if a candidate was down by 15 points. There is no reason why Obama could not consolidate these states if HRC was true to her word and supported him after he won the nomination. Indeed it may well be part of her pitch for VP.
Obama is doing so well nation-wide especially in the western states.
The irony for Obama is that MI seems to be coming over strongly for him and they dont count now in the primary, this could also be another reason for a joint Obama Clinton ticket as it will neutralise to a large extent any flack from MI and FL being not counted.
The real question would be whether a joint ticket would still allow Obama to get the Independents and Obamacans, let alone retain his Dem appeal.
Though possibly HRC got too poisonous recently in PA though for this to now work..?
Sorry, off topic, but couldn’t resist – from news.com.au site:
Buswell fesses up to chair-sniffing
April 29, 2008 02:52pm
Article from: AAP
WEST Australian Opposition Leader Troy Buswell has broken down at a press conference and confessed to sniffing the chair of a female Liberal party staff member after she got up.
Mr Buswell confirmed details of the woman’s account reported in a Western Australian newspaper.
The unnamed woman said Mr Buswell started sniffing the chair she had been sitting on in front of other staff members at the opposition leader’s Parliament House office in December 2005.
She said he did it to get a laugh and that she had told him she was shocked and outraged.
At a media conference today Mr Buswell had to break off after he was asked about the effect of the reports on his wife and children.
In tears, Mr Buswell said it had been a difficult time for him and his family.
Mr Buswell has previously admitted to snapping a Labor staff member’s bra as a drunken party trick.
He has also been accused by retiring Liberal MP Katie Hodson-Thomas of making sexist remarks to her.
Is it that hard to find a Tory leader who would be popular and doesn’t sniff chairs pulease god there are ALP Governments that deserve to be thrown out and its our fault they’re still there!
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/28/report-nc-governor-to-endorse-hillary-clinton/
Report: N.C. Governor to Endorse Hillary Clinton
“A person close to North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley tells The Associated Press he will endorse Hillary Rodham Clinton for president.
Easley is a Democratic superdelegate who has served as the state’s governor for two terms. His decision comes despite several recent polls showing Clinton trailing rival Barack Obama ahead of the state’s May 6 primary.”
Chalk one up for Mrs Clinton.
Not that this will make her win NC but hey all she has to do is win Indiana and ill bet they take it all the way to the Convention.
Keop on Topic, you underestimate YouTube. You’ll never see this soundbite on any of the MSM sources you mention as good reference points.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zEJ2ZLkjqQI
Well Buswell is a complete and pathetic waste of space – I am a Perth boy and a Liberal – but I cannot stand the man.
The Liberal part where really scraping the barrel when they made him leader, and he is certainly unelectable now.
Hopefully he will resign now and fade into the obscurity he deserves…
Back to Keep on Topic…
#213 Ron
Mate, your odds here are about the same as HRC’s in her primaries race – slim to none!
Keep on Topic at 215
Just don’t see a Obama/Clinton ticket emerging as she just doesn’t fit with the Obama model. In fact I think it would highly detrimental to his campaign potential.
Ron at 213
That article was provided to give you a little context from someone who was there (and gees imagine that someone attending an Obama fund raiser would be supporting Obama – that’s breaking news isn’t it). You can choose to ignore the contextual information but all the same your rubbish about rich Californians and elitism remains just plain silly.
Oops, forgot to say that I saw this on HuffPost which was linking to it.
Too busy to waste all day constructing posts correctly, LOL.
Indiana could go either way, but my feeling is that Hillary will take it by up to 3% – a delegate tie. NC should be Obama’s by around 10%.
Worthy of note; betting markets have been remarkably steady up to and since PA. This is despite the high rotation 20 secong MSM spritzs of Rev. Brimstone Wright.
Night of The Living Un-Dead. Worst Case for Dems.
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/04/28/8563/
By the way – “God damn America” was theologically correct in it’s context. And was in no way unpatriotic. Quite the reverse actually.
#202 – Swing Lowe – never let Obamabots bully you. You just post whatever you like and how often you like.
Interesting about the betting markets EC – I haven’t checked for a few days. I guess the punters can read the maths.
*Sigh*. To everyone who shouted my doubts down months ago and said that the Republicans wouldn’t be able to Swiftboat Obama if he was the nominee, I have one concession: if they don’t Swiftboat it will be because they can Selfboat.
Is he only opposition leader, or is he also shadow Minister for Olfactory Affairs?
Obama was only elected Senator 4 years ago and he’s the man who could be President…most people have to be in politics a long time before they become President.
Surelt that’s been part of his appeal, Glen. He doesn’t belong to the Washington establishment.
Ah Smile – the schadenfreude of the tipster on the wrong side. But you’re right – Obama and Wright will define the election against McCain and Hagee. And Falwell. And Robertson. And Iraq. And the economy…oh. Maybe you’re still wrong.
Oops….Surely
Pancho
#214
You are right. The line was intended to refer to your definition (’tarnished reputation’) for unsuitable writers to source , and not to the writer. ‘tarnished image’ was a play on words.
NOW a question for you Pancho,
below is about 40% of an article by a political writer at an Obama function. Do you think the writer is an unbiased/objective political writer or pro Obama ?
“That pivot, I thought, was remarkable and unique. Rather than his seizing the opportunity to recite stump-worn talking points at that time to the audience — as I believe Senator Clinton, Senator McCain and most other more conventional (or more disciplined) politicians at such an appearance might do — Senator Obama took a different political course in that moment, one that symbolizes important differences about his candidacy.
The response that followed sounded unscripted, in the moment, as if he were really trying to answer a question with intelligent conversation that explained more about what was going on in the Pennsylvania communities than what was germane to his political agenda. I had never heard him or any politician ever give such insightful, analytical responses. The statements were neither didactic nor contrived to convince. They were simply hypotheses (not unlike the kind made by de Tocqueville three centuries ago ) offered by an observer familiar with American communities. And that kind of thoughtfulness was quite unexpected in the middle of a political event. In my view, the way he answered the question was more important than the sociological accuracy or the cause and effect hypotheses contained in the answer. It was a moment of authenticity demonstrating informed intelligence, and the speaker’s desire to have the audience join him in a deeper understanding of American politics”
Ron – of course we must work from the assumption that someone at an Obama fundraiser is his supporter, and that bias should be taken into account when reading his or her positions. But the arguments of a regular Obama (or Clinton for that matter) supporter are a different thing from the writings of ideologues like Charles Krauthammer. I do not accept equating the two. What Obama and/or Clinton Democrats have to say about the nominating process have far more relevance than the carping of a neo-con.
I also note that Mayhill Fowler – who broke the ‘bitter’ story – has made the maximum donation allowable to the Obama campaign. She was also, obviously, invited to and at that closed fundraiser. So attendance at such an event should not lead us to discount anything that comes out of such an event – or from those attending – as blind partisanship.
What is the man thinking. What is the man doing. If the Pastor wants to help Obama to win the nomination and the POTUS, he should have taken a long holiday in the Patagonia and played with the penguins. It’s one thing to sermon those anti American sentiments in the “privacy” of your own church and parishioners. It’s entirely another matter to do likewise at a forum like the National Press Club. He is talking to the Nation and the International audience, and then to proceed to pour the HSIT, again and more, all over America and Obama.
Entire paragraph arbitrarily deleted as punishment for swearing – PB
He also implied that Obama is nothing in his eyes, even a POTUS [I'm coming after you]. Treating Obama like a little kid of his parish. Maybe he does have a lot of IOUs in pocket with Obama for over 20 years. He is happy to call on these IOUs anytime he likes.
He is really Obama’s worst nightmare. What is even more damaging for Obama is that he does not have the ticker to put the Pastor away. Just like he cannot put Hillary away. Obama is just a projection screen, he is good at allowing other people to project on him, look behind there is nothing. The Americans like to elect their President as a person who has the ticker to be the Commander-in-Chief. So far, it is Hillary that has shown the ticker, a fighter and a tiger. Obama is a pussy cat. Not fit to be a POTUS. Meow, meow, meow.
Pancho
#235
I was asking whether you thought the words (all generic) being 40% of the Article were from a pro Obama writer or not ….with your conclusion based ONLY on the words used rather than where those generics were spoken, but you knew
Obviously knowing where may give away the supporter. My view anyway was that generic 40% could have been inserted as 40% of ANY Obama article
which is why I tried earlier to label the writer as ‘tarnished image’
PS/ Mayhill Fowler gave up the story as I understand with great reluctance and under some pressure, and may pay the price with future exclusions.
Keep on Topic
#220
Outed yourself as a “Liberal”
There is the proof Kirri and j/v , the Obama supporters are with the Libs
Stay quiet Glen
OK William, this is without the swearing:
So obviously, he couldn’t care about Obama and “angry” with him. Otherwise how could you explain his bahaviour. As he is a showman, he is also enjoying his 3 hours of fame to satisfy his own ego, 15mins is not enough for him. More importantly, He shows no respect for Obama and shows complete disdain and contempt for Obama. He basically called Obama a liar. He implied Obama actually agreed with his diatribes but had to say otherwise, as a politician and be elected.
Fowler is an Obama supporter. The editorial decision and anguish was hers. She did not give up the story ‘with great reluctance’. She submitted it to her editors, also Obama supporters, who published it. I’d have thought you would have lauded her for this. By the way – she also holds an Obama bias.
Being a Lib doesn’t discount what KOT says any more than whoever you thought was a Green yesterday discount’s their opinion.
Finns – I completely agree with your first paragraph before you got snipped.
Well the first bit of it anyway. His bobbing up now is certainly interesting. A bi of spice where we were lacking…
As an Obama supporter, I dont think Rev Wright is doing him any favours- just shut up now I reckon. That being said, the MSM regurgitating this stuff looks desparate. Are the voters sick of the issue yet??
All that being said, when Obama gets through this, surely it leaves the Repugs with less to throw at him??
And for the record could 1. Finns 2. Ron and 3. GG openly declare if they would rather Obama than McCain. I openly declare that I would (much much) rather Clinton than McCain
From Stewart J’s post at 216:
“WEST Australian Opposition Leader Troy Buswell has broken down at a press conference and confessed to sniffing the chair of a female Liberal party staff member after she got up.”
Knew there was an act of bodily function that was not referenced in the current “Superhero” movie (for the young and rude at heart). Just checked with the kids and “Sniffer” Buswell is right out there on his own with this one. What is it with you Sandgropers, William?
This whole sordid episode of degeneracy, of olfactory debauchery at the highest of levels of West Australian society is sending a very wrong message to thousands of innocent young Australians. People who do this sort of thing are animals.
What we have here is yet another disgusting case of a pheromonally-challenged politician who just can’t keep it in his handkerchief!
This is an affront to the legacy and an insult to the descendants of Pepe Le Pew (all of them) because “Cassolet de la Chaise” was one of Pepy’s copyrighted specialties. Pepe’s people are parlez-vous-ing with their legals as we blog……
Life is great leveler. Obama threw his grandma under the bus. Now his Uncle just “Wright Throws Obama Under the Bus”. Serve him right.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/wright_throws_obama_under_the.html
Finns – that is a very good article. But Obama did not ‘throw his grandma under the bus’, and no matter how many times you want to repeat this, it remains untrue. Even Chris Wallace disagrees with you there.
#237 Ron
Remember that Liberal has different connotations in Australia compared to USA, as they regard any socialist type policies – like some of the Australian Labor Party’s – as Liberal ie Left Wing – but here it is Socialist/Labor.
In Australia the Liberals are typically for big business, small governement conservatives – like the republicans are back in the USA. As for myself I am more centralist /independent in my views – thanks for asking!
Obama is regarded with some favour in Australia because there is a strong international perception in most western countries that the Republicans are too right wing and NeoCon.
For example look at the public health system in USA – or lack thereof – compared to the health system in Australia, Canada and the UK. The USA – great in so many areas – but lags badly in this area Whereas the above commonwealth countries have had public funded health systems in place for many years.
Admittedly their health systems are not perfect – but at least it mitigates the risks associated with corporate health providers raking unseemly profits from the upper middle class that are lucky to afford their premiums at will – which is the situation in the USA at the moment.
Then there are other examples when doing further comparisons relating to standards of living, government, law, business regulation and education that really paint these American systems in a bad light. Dont get me wrong I love the USA and Americans – but dont like the way things are going in the last several years.
Note that the MSM in America is fickle, they can turn at the drop of a hat basically, though I do wish Rev Wright would just keep quiet and go away. This fickleness could turn on either Clinton and McCain in the coming weeks – there is plenty of targets for both of them to be got at – it is just Obama’s turn at the moment.
Now back on the matter of running mates or VP’s, I do agree that Obama Clinton possibly wont work now, and McCain Clinton would never fly in a million years.
However the thing to consider if Obama is blindsided for the nomination by the Democratic SD’s – and this was covered by several broadcasters after Super Tuesday – McCain Obama has some chance.
Ever wondered why McCain has not announced a running mate yet?
Also the exchange between McCain and Obama has been – until recently – more restrained than that between the two Democratic nominees.
This could be because if he took on Obama as a VP he would end up with the Obamacans, the independents, the mid-west and western states, and only leave Clinton OH PA FL CF NY and little else. Obama wins out if McCain has to retire soon or ill health overtakes him, as he is 72 years of age.
How many scandals can one couple have? I don’t think Bill Clinton is a serial killer. But lots of Americans do. Imagine the Repug dirt machine getting loose again. They would just love the chance.
The Clinton Body Count
The long list of people associated with Bill Clinton who have ended up dead
http://www.akdart.com/body-c.html
BTW Is it just me or am I REALLY REALLY boring? If I ran for POTUS (or equivalent) the biggest dirt machine ever would go back to their masters with tears in their eyes at how dull my 40 years on this planet have been.
#241
Andrew
Yep Obama still for me at the moment, but Clinton otherwise – just concerned that McCain/McSame does not get in. The other GOP candidates this year where either insipid or could not get enough support.
# 242
EnemyCombatant
Dude you are too funny and I agree….maybe he is channelling Bill Clinton – he even looks like him…
KOT – I’d give any Obama/Clinton ticket about a 5% chance. And either of them pairing with McCain would require them to reneg on a lifetime membership of the Democratic Party and every argument that they have made over the primary season. Either of them would probably some Republicans in their cabinets, but not to that extent.
Keep on Topic, an interesting theory, but there’s no chance of Obama becoming McCain’s VP. For a start, it would shred Obama’s credibility and create enormous disillusionment amongst his supporters. Not many votes would remain with Obama.
GG – [WEST Australian Opposition Leader Troy Buswell has broken down at a press conference and confessed to sniffing the chair of a female Liberal party staff member after she got up] – Is he any relation to your “underpants” sniffing Obamabot here?
The latest Ipsos poll puts Hillary +9 over McCain. Obama is barely break even. Found in one of the finest sources for psephological information and important news.
http://breakingnews.nypost.com/dynamic/stories/P/PRESIDENTIAL_RACE_AP_POLL?SITE=NYNYP&SECTION=HOME
Finn,
codger and I had a bit of a laugh over it last night when I posted the original story. It is amazing how life imitates blogging art.
#248 Panch and #249 Noocat
Well Dem and GOP running mates have happened before in US political history and they are usually successful.
Note that this would be very unlikely and a last resort for Obama if he is shredded by the Dems – the supporters would still be behind him to some extent as their man was still in play and a polarised Clinton could be viewed as unelectable if Obama was SD-boated at the convention.
Actually given the independent and maverick nature of McCain – it should surprise no one if this occurred.
#250 and #251
Well Troy “clinton” Buswell’s leadership future can measured in days and his political future can be measured in weeks/next election.
Stick a fork in the sook he is done.
This Pastorgate gets even weirder.
Obamabots said Wright did not make anti American comments.Obama says he did
Obamabots said Wright tells the truth. Now Wright is accusing Obama of lying
Wright: Obama distanced himself so he can elected.Obama says cause of Wright
Obamabots deny Wright made any racial comments or blamed the US for aids
Wright today : defended Louis Farrakhan, defended the view that Zionism is racism, accused the United States of terrorism, repeated his view that the government created the AIDS virus to cause the genocide of racial minorities
The only US story on National 9 news tonight was showing Pastor Wright talking
Obama sat for 20 years in this guys church , privately disagreeing and its the statistic of 20 years thats the milestone to all his feeble excuses
Pancho
#240
Fowler I was lauding her integrity. What are you saying Pancho ? ? great reluctance as she is an Obama supporter & was in the inner sanctum and under great pressure (ethically) because she knew the story was dynanite against him
Also re KOT , what are you saying Pancho ? KOT a Lib supports Obama !
..but then you missed the line under:Glen (a liberal, supports Hillary). Lighten up
Sorry #251 – reference to Buswell not for you.
But on the New York Post – well they are pro HRC – so that figure is with a grain of salt I reckon.
Basic delegate math means that HRC needs at least 60 40 over Obama over all the remaining states and that is not going to happen. HRC only has to lose NC and two smaller states by any margin, draw others like IN etc and it is over.
Remember that once Obama sheds Clinton he can campaign and debate McCain at will – and I think he is too intelligent and too quick for him. Plus McCains famous temper could get the better of him.
Dio@246-that link is sobering reading and gives pause for thought.
Temptation could be there if you thought you were immune to prosecution.
#244 Amitgo – [But Obama did not ‘throw his grandma under the bus’] – have u seen her tyre marks?
For Mr. Obama: Boy, You gunna carry that weight, carry that weight, for a long time.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=OEggVZhhkrw
Sorry Ron, didn’t understand your post – that code was a little dense for me. Finns – very good.
#255 Ron
None of the Aussie National News is really on target, they get the filtered view from MSM – and the syndication rules apply basically. Our Aussie ABC possibly has the best view on the matter as they do actually research things but are admittedly pro-liberal anyway.
It is possible that Wright Gate will blow over well before the end of the primaries – the crisis is not enough anyway to sink Obama – not by a long shot.
Note that there is such a thing as overdoing it when going too negative – as born out by the exit polls in PA last week, and how the Dem SD’s are now veiwing HRC.
Ron,
You have summed it up perfectly. Most of the Obamists here seem a mite confused. They desperately need to convince themselves that this whole matter is so unimportant and insignificant. The problem is that this Wright story is so unimportant and insignificant that it has lead every blog, newspaper, radio and television news .
Someone was positing earlier that this was all part of some mind blowingly brilliant campaign strategy by Obama. Not from where I sit.
The Obama crew are in the middle of a road wreck. All they can do is admire the view and hope that it stops before they get seriously hurt.
Wright today in #256 saying racial & anti American & aids comments VS
Obama at Philly 18/3/08 “A more complete Union”
“And this helps explain, perhaps, my relationship with Reverend Wright. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me. He strengthened my faith, officiated my wedding, and baptized my children. Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms, or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He contains within him the contradictions – the good and the bad – of the community that he has served diligently for so many years.
I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. ”
and you will ‘disowned ‘ from the Presidency
#262 GG – [The Obama crew are in the middle of a road wreck] – They are bit like the stunt
http://www.charterboats-uk.co.uk/Photographs/Fish/GREY_MULLET.GIF
for the moment. The fury of Wright at the NPC has caught the Obama crew off guard and they dont really know how to response. It’s a reminder of Kerry’s response or non-response to the Swiftboat.
FINNS , just to back up your comment that Obama DID publicly ‘disown’ his own Grandmother and put her under the proverbial bus in the Philly speech18/3/08
How can you be POTUS when you are prepared to denigrate your own Grandmother to deflect attention politically from the Pastor’s then comments
Obama Speech 18/3/08 ” A more perfect Union”
“I can no more disown him (Wright) than I can my white grandmother – a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, BUT BUT
a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, AND who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.”
GG
#263
The problem fo the Repugs is they NOW have so many Pastor Wright
but contradictory ones from Obama in public speechs , the Repugs won’t know which ones to use and which not to. Like Obamabotic marketers paradise
I’m just wondering whether “the three amigo’s” realise they have morphed into Pies Ackerman?
GG and FINNS and any other bloggers
I’ve got 2 large blogs to reply to Robert (we are discussing a few issues)
to post here in 5 minutes , so yous may wish to hold your posts your 5 min for both otherwise they’ll get “lost” being posted BEFORE my 2 long ones
Robert Boland
#122
Which was addressed to Ron
re Hillary and Iran/nukes (2 of 3)
“Do I think that Hillary Clinton threatening to nuke a country that doesn’t have nukes & is not even involved in aggression against any other country is sick ‘Yes’
I’m not sure whether or not your words ALSO imply as others here say that Hillary was threatening to make a pre-emptive nuke strike against Iran. That view I think is nonsense.
If you are also implying this , then below is the full interview which makes plain she is saying if you do launch nukes at Israel , we will then nuke you and bear in mind if you contemplate doing so then ALSO bear in mind that after you launch the nukes we would be able to totally obliterate you.
This clearly is not a threat to make a pr-emptive nuke strike against Iran.
It is however a threat to nuke Iran if it actually does launch nukes at Israel
and that is I think is what you object to (and to which I give a view)
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2008/04/iran-considerin.html
Firstly I acknowledge any comment referring to nuking anyone is distasteful. The question is, is it justified and could the answer to the nuke question been avoided
The UN say Iran is enriching uranium. The UN say Iran can if it choses to enrich uranium to a ‘standard’ & with the know how could develop nukes , and further can have nukes in approx. 3 to 5 years. The Iranian President has threatened to wipe Israel off the face of the earth (more than once)
If Iran can have nukes and has threatened Israel with obliteration, then I believe thee is a clear potential but not current danger. As a potential POTUS she’s asked on National TV what would you do if Iran nukes Israel. Hillary did not say there is a current danger or Iran presently now has nukes. Hillary answered the question truthfully. She would respond by nuking Iran.
The 5 relevant questions I think are
a/ is such a discussion distasteful (yes)
b/ was there a domestic political advantage in Hillary answering the question either as he did or the unsustainable option d/ (yes)
c/ does one agree with the content of her answer (yes, and would also be a ‘Yes’ if nukes were launched against eg. Rome)
d/ should she have not answered the question (technically yes, she instead could have said the question is hypothetical, and simply added, I as POTUS will guarantee the security of Israel as if it’s the 52nd State of the US and Iran should know this
e/ but I believe and she knew , she would be constantly asked the “what if nuke” question repeatedly and option d/ would wear out of political credibility because the US is Israel eccentric, and failure ultimately to answer this repeated question would be spun as Hillary “soft on security” and “evasive”.
This would be complete POTUS political suicide given the demographic support she relys on & so in practice I do NOT think she had a choice politically, much as I don’t like such an answer publicly said.
Obama is going to get the same question and have the same political problem answering it (my guess he’ll take all of my suggestion d/ only because his demographic POTUS support base is different) .
Journos deliberately ask these “gotcha questions’ for ratings not for the intellect
Now you of course can afford to say the answer is outrageous, but not if you are successfully running for POTUS where the luxury of tasteful choices don’t exist
Conversely in Australian unlike the US , a journo may get away with asking the distasteful question once, but if tried a 2nd time the Pollie would put him in place
#253
KOT, obviously it’s not the pairing of a Dem and GOP that would necessarily be unsuccessful, it’s the fact that Obama would be seen to be selling out on his principles, such as his stance on Iraq and other aspects of foreign policy, that would make such a move personally damaging for him.
Robert Boland
#122
Addressed to Ron
Re the reason for Truman’s use of the nuke in 1945 (3 of 3)
Robert: “The US could have methodically demonstrated the power of the ‘nuke’ bomb on uninhabitated areas and tested whether the Japanese realised what that meant.The reason they didn’t was the time imperative. The Russians may have grabbed Japan and its excellent industrial infrastructure, as well as all the coal and steel in Manchuria and Korea) before the West And the sole motive for the nuking Japan was to forestall the Russians”
Ron , an alternative opinion:
Interpretation of history from meetings ,notes , comments, diaries & news clippings can vary but the historical sequence of events below indicate contrary to your view Truman’ prime reason in dropping the nuke bomb was to get an immediate unconditional surrender which until then Japan had refused to give despite 5 months of conventional and fire bombing of Japan cities. That the Russian issue was secondary and that a ‘show’ in an ‘uninhabitated area would not have worked to illicit the inconditional surrender & defeated the reason it did achieve this.
Therefore I disagree with your above proposition because it ignores that as of one day before the first bomb 6/8/45 the following had already occured
1/ as at the 5/8/45 ,the ‘nuke’ bomb was not tested on until its test on 16/7/45
2/ as at the 5/8/45 , at Potsdam on 26/7/45 Truman his advisors and Churchilll agreed the bomb could lead to Japan’s surrender without an invasion and without Russian military help.The Potsadam demand from Truman & Churchill to Japan on 26/7/45 was Japan must make an immediate & total unconditional surrender ”otherwise it would face prompt and utter destruction” “This was publicly made but also communicated to Japan
3/ Japan continued to attack US forces with submarines , suicide kamakazi attacks eg sank the carrier Indianapolis on 29/7/45 & the attacks continued during August
4/ On 29/7/45 Japan rejected the Potsdam unconditional surrender demand
5/ therefore as at 5/8/45, NO such surrender had been received (in fact had been rejected on 29/7/45) and the US still was at war with an enemy that the Pacific campaigns eg Okinowa from 1944-45 served as empirical proof that the Japanese would go down fighting until the very end
6/ From March 1945 , when the US first fire bombed Japan cities (Tokyo
on 9/3/45 killing an estimated 100,000 that day) , through to August 1945 …
using conventional and fire bombing of numerous Japan cities which continued regularly but still without Japan’s unconditional surrender. Your suggestion the bomb could have been dropped in a remote areas to show the Japan the effects is not consistent with their reaction to 5 months of conventional and fire bombing of Japan cities. Still Japan would make no unconditional surrender
7/ ,the POTUS Truman had a nuke bomb that would end the war immediately (and had had it at 16/7/45 the Potsdam surrender threat).
Truman decided to drop them on 6/8/45 and 9/8/45. The purpose seeing 5 months of fire & conventional bombing had failed to get an unconditional surrender was to get that surrender by a massive psychological shock impression (Truman was right Japan unconditionally surrendered immediately)
8/ Had Truman further delayed using the war ending nuke weapon he would have not discharged his POTUS responsibility to the US people to end the war as quickly a possible and with as few US casualties as possible. From the initial test to its first dropping on 16/7/45 to its first doping on 6/8/45 was only 19 days including production , logistics & planning.
To suggest Truman should forget this responsibility & worry about Japan civilian deaths is unreal.
Of course there were secondary considerations discussed and considered including the post 2nd war strategic position with Russia
But the prime reason was no unconditional surrender was received , nukes in hand would end the war immediately & stop further US military deaths and the POTUS responsibility was to carry out those 3 objectives above all else. Therefore I do not agree with your alternative ‘Russia’ strategic reasons for the nuke use
BUT , had Japan unconditionally surrendered as demanded on 26/7/45 , no nuke bombs would have been dropped. The blame is Japan the war aggressor’s refusal to do so, not Truman’s
(aside comment:
I could also mention secret dealings between Japan & Russia on 11/7/45 at ministerial level to do a deal giving Russia considerable economic concessions without Japan having to unconditionally surrender.
A thought that would please all the Asians countries Japan had committed genocide on and would be free to repeat the dose, not to mention the bombed civilians of Darwin. So Truman’s 11 days grace time from his threat to his dropping of the first nuke was quite generous. As to morality , there has never been any in any war, the winners will always look after themselves first and last to minimise their casualties.
I’ve reposted this for you Noocat
270
Noocat Says:
April 29th, 2008 at 8:12 pm
#253
KOT, obviously it’s not the pairing of a Dem and GOP that would necessarily be unsuccessful, it’s the fact that Obama would be seen to be selling out on his principles, such as his stance on Iraq and other aspects of foreign policy, that would make such a move personally damaging for him.
Just wishful thinking there GG. I’m as relaxed as I could possibly be because it is obvious to anyone with a thinking brain that the Wright issue is being beaten into a smear job. The only people it resonates with are those who already plan not to vote for or support Obama – some, like yourself, are almost wetting themselves with the idea that this is THE issue that will bring him down.
This is why this issue didn’t change voting patterns last time it flooded the media, and it won’t this time either.
Remember last year when Howard and his cronies repeatedly did the smear job on Rudd, trying to make mountains out of tiny mole hills, and each time it failed? Like Australians, even the good folk of the USA are now seeing smear jobs when they see them, which is all part of the reason why Obama, promising a new style of politics, has got as far as he has.
Hillary, the Republicans, and members of the media, by resorting to these tactics, are simply playing into Obama’s hands because he can then use it as a springboard for a new approach, just as he did with the PA “perfect union” speech.
You guys are your own worst enemies.
Why?
Oh crap….just arrived under a pile of Ron.
er…I mean….
oh Ron…just arrived under a pile of crap
Anyways….can anyone seriously say that Zionism ISN’T racist???
I thought that was the point ie. by virtue of race we own this pile of dirt and claims by all other races are invalid.
I’m still waiting for the videos of John Hagee’s monstrously silly religious nutbaggery to be shown alongside John McCain’s glowing testimonial of the man.
Funny isn’t it?
McCain, when questioned, only has to say he can see the ‘good works’ of this racist, loopy ultra-right loony-tune, but does not agree with all of his views, and the MSM goes, “ok, that’s a good enough explanation” and then moves on. Hagee would have the J3ws exterminate the Palestinians to hurry up the Rapture, but hey, what’s a bit of genocide in the rush to eternal salvation? I can handle that.
Astonishing the difference between the group behaviour, and one could note, between the treatment of the black guy and the white guy, but what’s that got to do with it, eh?
Noocat at 272
Good post!
And I’ve yet to hear anyone explain what is wrong with the ‘God damn America’ statement – in context and as part of a sermon. It’s actually quite an unremarkable statement for a preacher. Wanna guess how many times Falwell, Robertson, et al have said similar things.
But they’re white.
#276 – Catrina – [Noocat at 272 Good post!] – obviously you are still on the Obama Mutual Admiration & Approval Society trip. it’s time you wean off or is it too addictive.
277
Ferny Grover
Yeah, Hagee reckons God damned New Orleans for dressing up as Sodom, but no one seems to think that’s not patriotic! LOL
Didn’t one of the other religious nutters make some disparaging comments about New York after 911?
Really, they’ve seen and heard it all before, but to be shocked that a black preacher makes some scorching remarks about a country which incarcerates more black people, executes more black people, than any other ‘white’ nation shows a certain naivety, does it not?
Where have they been living for the last few hundred years? Oh that’s right, in Disneyland.
Is there an economist in the house?
I saw some data recently that first quarter growth in the US was (just) positive. If so technically, that means there wouldn’t be a US recession until Quarter 3 this year, assuming that the second and third quarters see negative growth. I found this odd, given that the spillover of finance problems into the “real” economy in the US is already happening via job losse and house repossessions. Most economists seem to think the US is already in recession in practical terms. So here is the question – does that mean that either (a) the US growth statistics are wrong and/or (b) our definitions of recession are inappropriate or obsolete?
Before dismissing option (a), I can recall several times when official economic statistics have been wrong before and corrections issued later. Does anyone know if this might be the case in the US now, since the “official” figure seems so counter-intuitive? While I know official statistical agencies are normally unbiased, I have seen data definitions cooked before to manufacture answers, eg massaging unemployment figures in the 80s via redefining “looking for work”. could this happen to GDP figures? Or human error?
279 KR
Yes it was Jerry Falwell Snr who said that 9/11 was God’s judgement on New York for the sin of homosexuality.
Wright’s comments were that a nation that habitually practices gross injustices to a sector of its own population can’t expect to be ‘blessed’ when the bible says such action will result in God’s judgement. I know which one I agree with.
Sounds tame when you translate it into honky speak, huh.
Further to the previous question, here are two relevant pieces on the question of whether US growth statistics are real:
http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/recession-2/2007/11/21/
And this on a survey of what most US economists actually think:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2008-04-28-economy-survey-recession_N.htm
Finally purely anecdotal but IMO as reliable as any, the last two friends I know who have returned from the US in the past six months both said the mood of economic pessimism was palpable, so I am curious just what the reality is?
Article by Jeff Cohen “Military Propoganda pushed me off TV”.
Another dissenting voice was silenced.
http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/042808R.shtml
GG – like we have said. The Obama Team is acting like a stunt mullet at the moment:
I dont to get into trouble for swearing again, “It is unfortunate from our perspective.” from David Axelrod is a code word to tell the Pastor Disastor to %^&*off.
Boy, he’s going to have to carry that Wright weight for a long time. Why? because he had no ticker to put away the Pastor. Instead, he said “I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother”. That sent a signal to the Pastor that Obama is giving him the license to carry on business as usual. That was exactly what the Pastor did at NPC. The Genie now is out of the Obama’s bottle.
http://www.suntimes.com/news/sweet/920525,CST-NWS-sweet29.article
Not sure if anyone posted this opinion piece from the NY Times by Jimmy Carter outlining his discussions with the leaders of Hamas,the West Bank and Syria.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/opinion/28carter.html?_r=2&th&emc=th&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Such common sense but doesn’t fit with the current “if you are not with us,you are against us” mindset.
Hi all
A couple of weeks back I posted that HRC will stay in the race for the Democratic nomination for as long as it is in the best interests of the Republican Party for her to do so.
In yesterday’s OO “Clinton campaign now in wonderland”
Andrew Sullivan | April 28, 2008
LAST week was officially the moment that the race for the Democratic nomination slipped through the looking-glass into surrealism.
Here is a brief list of those people who are actively supporting Hillary Clinton’s candidacy: Pat Buchanan, a charming man slightly to the right of Genghis Khan; Rush Limbaugh, the most voluble and incendiary of right-wing talkshow hosts; Richard Mellon Scaife, the media mogul who financed the virulently anti-Clinton crusades of the 1990s; and if you read between the lines, even Karl Rove, the “architect” of the past decade or so of Republican dominance in electoral politics.
Am I hallucinating? I promise you I’m not. The merging of the forces that once persecuted the Clintons with the Clinton campaign itself has been a wonder to behold. Some on the once solidly anti-Clinton Right have even been urging people to register as Democrats to vote for her.
Limbaugh began his pro-Clinton campaign when Ohio and Texas were at stake. Last Wednesday, he claimed success in getting enough Republicans to vote for Clinton in Pennsylvania to keep her candidacy alive. Limbaugh calls his initiative “Operation Chaos”.
So how many of the HRC supporters on PB are closet Republicans I wonder?
#286 – Vote1Maxine – [So how many of the HRC supporters on PB are closet Republicans I wonder?] – NONE. the difference between us Hillary supporters and the Obamabots is that we want the best Dem candidate to beat McCain in November, whereas the Obamabots just want the best candidate to beat Hillary because of their hatred of Hillary.
We can add William Kristol to that illustrious list Maxine. The GOP and right-wing loony fringe are giving Hillary a monumental cuddle right now. They’ve decided she’s the easy-beat against McCain and that she needs ther help to get there.
I am in two minds on this thread. I wish the democratic race were over and it concerns me that some of Hillary Clintons attacks have become negative. On the other hand, given all the garbage she has always copped for daring to be a woman to stand for office, I can understand why she has gotten bloody minded. It seems to me there is still a huge double standard here and in the US. I wonder if we’d even be seriously having the stand-down debate if Hillary were a male candidate who was less than 10% behind in votes and delegates? Wouldn’t he just say, “let the better man win”.
Catrina @ 276 true; but 273 was better.
Finns, you’d better go inform McCain because so far it seems the Republicans think Hillary is the easier candidate to beat, as do the majority of Democrat voters, and an increasing number of superdelegates.
Latest Betfair odds: NC Obama $1.07 Clinton $9.40, Indiana Obama $2.64 Clinton $1.45. Favorites have both become stronger in the respective contests.
Overall democratic candidate: Obama $1.30 Clinton $4.90. This is actually a big move as she was out at $6 yesterday and he has move by the same in the other direction.
#291 – Noocat – [Hillary is the easier candidate to beat] – are you still on those pills?
AP Poll shows Clinton best Dem hope to beat McCain, Obama struggles over pastor remarks….
With that newfound support, Clinton gained ground this month in the hypothetical match with McCain, the Republican nominee-in-waiting, and now leads him 50 percent to 41 percent. Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent. Both Democrats were roughly even with McCain in the previous poll about three weeks ago.
http://www.iht.com/bin/printfriendly.php?id=12414452
Wright today : “repeated his view that the government created the AIDS virus to cause the genocide of racial minorities”
Now: Noocat , Ferny , Maxine , Kirri etc last time I quoted this 6 weeks ago you guys say he did not say it then oh , its take out of context or the neocons are spreading it. TODAY Wright said it uncensored on National TV. So whats the line now , Ferny’s earlier , oh its not that bad a statement.
The audacity of Obama’s hypocracy more like it from his , quote ‘friend’.
When i said 6 weeks ago obama if he fair finkum on US values should ‘disown the man’ , Ferny horrified NO , he should not do that
Hi Finnigans
I support Obama but I don’t hate Hillary. I like you believe that “my” candidate is the best chance of beating McCain in November. I’d supported Hillary against McCain if she won the nomination. My next question is how many of HRC supporters would back Obama? [ Finns I hope your answer is ALL]
FG
“the enemy of my enemy is my friend” as HRC is in the minds of the ultra right Republicans is a real worry. It reinforces in my mind that Obama is the best canidate for the Democrats.
Socrates Says:
April 29th, 2008 at 8:49 pm….”I saw some data recently that first quarter growth in the US was (just) positive…”
There are a couple of things to note. First, the stats are always subject to revision, but overseas demand has probably contributed significantly to measured GDP, so the stats can be positive even if the story with domestic demand is negative. In general, the flat GDP outcome is consistent with other measures of activity: consumer spending has been flat even as household incomes have still risen slightly. Employment has started to shrink and this is the pointer to the future direction of incomes, demand, output….
As to the defintion of a recession, essentially you have to see a sustained fall in employment, incomes, final demand and output. Usually, these things occur together when you can identify at least two consecutive quarters of declining output. Hence the rule of thumb: two quarters at least.
I think it is also important to look at the change in the trajectory of the economy. In late 2007, the US economy was expanding at a +4% pa pace. Within a few weeks a very marked deceleration had commenced. The forward indicators are for contraction to take hold and intensify: hence the mood of pessismism….
Finns @ 293…but did you see the sampe size? Not much of a sample and quite high MOE. I would want more convincing than one dodgey survey.
#293. Look, Finns, I have seen the polls, but even when they were showing Obama as the stronger candidate against McCain a few weeks ago, I took them with a big grain of salt simply because we are not yet down to a two-horse race.
Just watch and see, those polls will flip back the other way very soon, and then probably a few more times until this Dem nomination is finally settled, at which point Obama will be streets ahead of McCain…
[Just watch and see
Sorry, meant to say "wait and see"
Gawd it’s hard to read your posts Ron. I’m restricted to English I’m afraid. I’m glad you agree that Wright’s ‘God damn America’ was ‘not bad’. Actually I said it was completely true! And patriotic at that!!
Apart from all that, Wright isn’t the candidate. So is that all you got Ron? Or are you going to keep repeating and repeating this stuff – as you do – in the hope that somehow Wright’s words will become Obama’s.
Stay focussed Ron. The candidate are a white woman named Hillary and black guy named Barack. No Reverends at all.
Clinton early on adopted the tactic of ‘if I cant win I will make sure Obama cant’ has bought about the following…
“Those Obama backers who don’t like Hillary Rodham Clinton say they would vote for Republican candidate John McCain over her by a two-to-one margin, with many undecided.
As for Clinton supporters, those with unfavorable views of Obama have grown from 26 percent to 42 percent during this same period — including a doubling to 20 percent of those with very negative opinions.
The Clinton backers with unfavorable views of Obama say they would vote for McCain over him by nearly three-to-one, though many haven’t made up their minds.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_el_pr/campaign_divided_democrats
If the Democrats think this is a serious possibility maybe we will get an emergency import, Gore with Obama Vice President candidate.
Ah, this is all so good. KR – good calling – a Hagee piece up on DKos now. Just wait for it to flow through.
Ron@294 – “Wright today : “repeated his view that the government created the AIDS virus to cause the genocide of racial minorities””
You are misinformed or misrepresenting. This particular long bow has been drawn from Wright’s comment today that ‘I believe our government is capable of doing anything’. I know that you know this, because you responded to my posting of it @163.
But no bother. Like I say, this is gonna be great when you muckrakers have your small hopes dashed. A good time to make some free money on Obama to be the nominee though – and those odds on him for Indiana, go!
evening all- 2 days without a PB fix and I can see nothing has changed. Except me: had my hair cut.
Gather the Pastorsaucegate Issue is back in force. Shame he is not a candidate or it could actually matter to someone apart from desparate Clinton/McCain supporters. Hard to tell the difference these days.
spot on, jen
285
megan
I brought it up yesterday Megan, as Carter is both a good example of non-Bush and pro-Obama in action.
The Finnigans at 287
Hey Finns – did you know that I started out as a Hillary Girl? But something happened – I listened to an interview between someone and Obama about Economy and Foreign Policy and there was a bunch of stuff Obama was going on about related to how people have to step up and be a part of the process, to own the process, and be accountable for the process. I can’t give you a link because – well – that was about a year ago. The result of that single video got me digging into policies of both candidates. That took me something like 4, maybe 6 weeks of digging and scaping and somewhere in the process something clicked – and looking back its more of a risk management thing. Obama is in my opinion a riskier candidate, but he has long since passed the risk/return threshold. In other words – the potential that this man has to change to be something much better is so great that the added risk is just not important. Simply put – this is a once in a lifetime opportunity even if the gamble does not play out. I know that I’m suggesting some very high ideals in the words I’ve used above – but gee – there is so much room for potential if he only archives half of what I think he could.
As for Hillary Clinton – I don’t hate her, but I will confess that she continues to capture more and more negative attributes as she continues. The biggest thing that annoys me is her complete and utter denial of the rules and her willingness to take down everything around her. Unlike the Alien Mother – she’s turning more into the Terminator – a mission that must be accomplished without consideration for consequences of her actions.
But beyond Hillary – the Hillary support team are not doing anything to win friends. Just look around here at PB and we see Clinton supporters pulling at straws and shaking them violently in the wind and shouting out – ‘why can’t you see’. What I don’t see is any reasoned arguments to shift my opinion. But maybe the gap between risk and potential is just to big – because little things like Rev. Wright, Flag Pins, [enter your pet drama] just don’t make a difference.
But good stand up FG @ 300…
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video_log/2008/04/wrights_qa_at_the_national_pre.html
LOL
So Kina, 3:1 Hillary supporters would back McCain v Obama, Obama supporters 2:1. Both these figures are depressing but I think reflect the robust contest and hopefully will settle once the nomination is secured. I wonder why the Hillary’s are more inclined to vote for McCain. Definately seems like “it’s Hillary or no-one” mentality
289
“I wonder if we’d even be seriously having the stand-down debate if Hillary were a male candidate who was less than 10% behind in votes and delegates? Wouldn’t he just say, “let the better man win”.”
Well, what do you think would be happening if Hillary were a male candidate named Smith, who wasn’t married to a previous US president under the circumstances?
For those of you care to read it, here’s the entire transcript of today’s NCP address by the non-candidate Rev Wright:
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/chi-wrighttranscript-04282008,0,1561596.story?page=1
Ferny- so it’s true???
The reverend Wright is NOT a candidate.
Well, bugger me – you’d never know would you.
What a lot of crap.
302
Pancho
But the significant point in all of this Pancho, is that the MSM have no interest in discussing Hagee’s loopy, racist and ‘unpatriotic’ remarks, because,well hey, McCain has already ‘dealt’ with that issue.
Sure, he patted the obedient media on the head, and they all got warm and fuzzy about what a nice patriotic guy McCain is, and moved on to look for something to bash the new (black) kid with. It’s hysterically funny, the depth of hypocricy and infantile preoccupation with their own narcisistic utterances. Tell me what deep and meaningful thing any of them have ever said about ANY subject? But when they decide to ‘examine’ Wright, in 15 second grabs, they suddenly speak deep truths about AMerica?
Give me a freakin’ break! It’s ‘news’ ie manufactured controversy with blatent agendas and bias.
But what is good about it is that the more it goes on and on, the more irrelevent it becomes. Media spin cycles wring out the interest if you put it on loop mode. The viewers move on, as they ‘know’ that, and so if Obama grabs their attention again with something relevent, the Rev WRight will become ‘history’ and the story will move onto something else.
Can’t happen soon enough, because it’s already pretty stale.
Off-topic:
Leading candidate for buzzword of the Primary season (i.e. what ‘hubris’ was to the Oz election) has to be ‘extemporaneous’.
Ferny anyone that weaves Cheney through patriotism does it for me. Perhaps Denton: Pell & Wright live from…
Sod the spelling, it’s ‘blatant’, but most here can figure that out. But if you’d like a stream of unconsciousness, well, we can do that too!
314
codger
Great line, eh? How many years of military service did Cheney do?
How many servicemen and women have died in his utterly futile and unnecessary war?
KR at 315
Was that an extemporaneous comment?
What is 60% of 77? 46. That is about how many delegates Clinton might be able to get at best in Indiana.
Whats 77 minus 46? 31. Which will be how many Obama would therefore get.
What is 46 minus 31? 13. That is how many more delegates Clinton will catch up.
Except North Carolina is also having their primary. 112 delegates there. Say Obama wins, 55% to 45%. That is the best Clinton can hope for there given the democratic party there is largely black.
55% of 112? 62.
45% of 112? 50.
62 minus 50? 12.
Clinton is at best going to be one delegate closer to Obama.
As there is about 130 delegates between the two, and there is only about 200 delegates to go…. Clearly, Clinton can not get the lead on pledge delegates unless Obama turns out to be a cannibal in the meantime.
So her only chance is to get a little closer, then try to get the democratic vote of the voters overturned. If that happens, How much of a field day are the other side going to make of that the democratic party is not democratic?
(Bush might even be forced to send the troops in to bring about democracy.)
“Hello, Barack? It’s Hillary. I just wanted to tell you that I have electablility. NO IT’S NOT A DISEASE!! It means I’m more electable than you, so you better pull out now and save the embarrasment. How do I know? Entrails. Yep – read the entrails and they’ll tell you I’ve got electability. Whad’ya mean you’ve got more delegates and more states and more people voting for you; the entrails say I’m the electable one and that’s what matters most. Whose entrails? THE LAST B*STARD WHO GOT IN MY WAY – THAT’S WHOSE!”
“(Bush might even be forced to send the troops in to bring about democracy.)”
I hope not. Then the Primary season might go on 100 years – even after one of the candidates announces ‘Mission Accomlished’ in Denver. And they will remain at each others throats beyond the Convention. Then infighting will break out among the two increasingly divided factions within the Party. Then Hillary will withdraw to Arkansas and take her standing army with her (an army which even a lot of Obama people will still feel an affinity for, making the required united security front difficult to attain). Then Bush will say it ain’t democracy we need, just stop fighting each other (and me!). And then nothing will happen for a long long time.
317
Catrina
Being an ‘old dog’ it was more of a ‘distemperaneous’ comment! I’m getting a little sick of the stream of consciousness style of post, shall we say! LOL
“Once again, the top Republican House strategist has said publicly that Hillary Clinton would be the tougher Democrat for his charges to run against in the fall, and Obama would be the weaker candidate. The question imposes itself: why on earth would Tom Cole admit this? A large crowd will assume that he is attempting a fumbling Jiujitsu move by luring the Democrats into a false sense of remorse about almost nominating Obama because Obama, in fact, would be the more difficult candidate. Indeed, Democratic superdelegates might actually pay attention to what Tom Cole says. Or he could be telling the truth. I suspect that the actual difference in drag between Clinton, once nominated, and Obama, once nominated, would be fairly minimal, perhaps only a few knots’ worth of headwind. In any event, the Democrats are likely to pick up House seats, so even assuming that Cole is telling the truth, what we’re debating here is the size of the Democratic margin over Republicans.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/04/gops_cole_obama_would_be_bette.php
Pancho
#303
“you muckrakers”.
I’ll try again
You guys do not ‘get it’. Never have for the 8 weeks I’ve referred to it.
MCain does not have his own Pastor of 20 years, did the wedding , baptised the kids , Obama says he is a friend AND who makes racial & anti american sermon comments in Obama’s presence for 20 years , comments Obama says he privately disagreed with but kept returning to hear.
What you guys can not see vs McCain’s endorsees is Obama’s above actions affect his suitabilit for POTUS as it questions his weak convictions, lack of judgement , ‘ticker’ and undermines & is totally inconsistent with the Philly speech message to ‘unify’ the racial divide. Today Wright on TV has opened further issues
The connection you are missing , as committed Obama supporters is the linking of par 1 and 2. Wright is not the problem , its Obama’s 20 years ’silent disagreeing attendance & almost family pastoral relationship that is. Had Wright been a best friend , the problem would be far less because the friends conversations & views would be neither public nor ‘Pastor’ like.
I did point out to derision at the time that the Philly speech defence would not hold because it was riddled with condemnation of the Pastor and admiration for him , and I sufggested the later should have been ditched , and the Pastor should have been ditched. the problem will cotinue up to Nov with swinging voters not the faithful’ in the US like yourselves. Obama method of how he has handled the Pastor issue, has made it worse not better.
Pancho @ 313, point taken but I beg to differ, see 104.
No Ron, as polling, and this contest in the past month since the emergence of Wright has illustrated – you are the one who unfortunately does not ‘get it’. People don’t care that politicians play politics and mix with rough characters. Of course, your ‘getting it’ and insight into how this contest will play out should really have you wanting to make a bet you’ll surely win. Shouldn’t it?
I’m coming around codger.
319
Ferny Grover
Electability?
Oh yeah, take a look at electoral-vote.com.
Let’s not view it as one race, but 50 races. So how close does HRC beat Mc? Well, as it happens, 109 Electoral College Votes (EV) are on margins of 3% or less.
Obama, for the same small margin, only risks 41 EV.
Conversely, Obama threatens McCain (leading on a few percent) on 97 EV
Clinton only threatens McCain on 13 EV
Sitting on strong margins:
Obama 89 EV
Clinton 74 EV
Any astute reader of these state poll numbers would conclude that Hillary may appear to be in front, but at the individual state level, she is much weaker than Obama. She holds her lead on a lot of tiny margins, compared with Obama, and hardly threatens McCain at all where he leads.
No doubt the Supers can read polls too.
Pancho @ 325…you’re not going chin leading barryhall on us?
Btw welcome back Ms Noseclip, sorely missed.
Pancho
326
have a look at todays AAP poll of McCainvs Hillary and McCain vs Obama OR within the same Poll the lead Hillary has over Obama with Independents.
Why isn’t this relevant ?
Then you say ‘People don’t care that politicians play politics’ , what has Obama’s ‘new style’ of politics been dumped now
Ron-
I’ll give you 10/10 for persistence. And for the ability to be tedious in the extreme.
it must be hard to accept that if even the Clintons with all their machinery, money and power are struggling to convince people, that you have no chance.
Sorry codger. I’m ready to join the picket line.
Stephen Colbert does Electability.
http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/videos.jhtml?videoId=167104
Thanks codger-
missed you too.
oh where is FINNS , the ‘draught board boy’ is at it agian. What you just said a teenager could have done better with the same info
Jon Stewart on Reverend Wright
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=167141&title=charismatic-black-preacher
Chris Bowers on OpenLeft.com has an interesting take on the delegate count: “… my new goal in delegate counting is not to determine the “true” delegate count, but instead to accurately determine the delegate count being argued for, and kept by, both the Obama and Clinton campaigns. From that point, we will see who has enough power over the process in order to make their delegate count a reality.”
Foucault’s Delegate Counter
334
Ron
And what’s your refutation of the facts Ron? Or would you rather just give us your opinion, over and over and over?
Tediousness, (and you’ve surely mastered that!) is not substitute for numeracy Ron, and if you haven’t noticed, (as it appears you haven’t) this site is about polls.
Or, is it a wee bit too hard for you?
TW – If I had to take that Colbert/Stewart poll now, I’d almost have to vote Stewart just on the strength of that clip. I am crying here.
Callum #337
Thanks for that lead.
Thats a good site , well argud on stat and an interesting set of views. I agree with his conclusion (except a minor no of 3 del’s taken from Hillary) , and I’ve argued it here as the Party will have bigger political problems not doing it than doing it
Kirri
“this site is about polls.”
then talk about todays AAP where Hillary thrashs Obama in matchups to McCain and in Independents Hillary vs Obama. Want to talk about this poll its the latest out , today
Pancho
mud raking , a tarnished reputation one was
& that’s how it will play TW; the MSM will shut Wright down; he is seriously funny and has depth. Exit.
339
Ron
Why not take a range of polls as on electoral-vote, or must you cherry pick the best one?
I’ve not seen it, but I’ll look at it later; right now, it’s Jon Stewart and Jimmy Carter for me.
Codger
“MSM will shut Wright down”
No that was you guys story 8 weeks ago, but it has happened and you do not understand why. Here is a free tip Codger, Bosniagate was big news for a few days but now just fish & chip paper and I wonder why
Ron at 343
Your missing the bigger issue. Bosniagate went to the character of Hillary Clinton in that it demonstrated a willingness to lie to the American people and the world. Wrightgate is a tangent at best because its linked by past association wherein the best you can hope for is ridicule of the paster in an attempt to smear the candidate. And as things are playing out – Wright is being viewed increasingly by American MSM as someone jumping on Obama’s coattail. The story is shifting away from Obama and focussing on the rationale behind Wrights latest actions, raising his book publishing and his desire for the short term limelight.
Whatever the truth of the matter is – most of us already know that it doesn’t matter – cuz we ain’t voting for Wright. Remember that it does not matter how many times you raise the dead it ain’t going to change the facts (but I do give you credit for trying).
Ron please don’t ‘you guys’ me; as you said last night, ‘I’m special’…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6iTUIb7CDs0
Catrina ,
If Bosniagate was a big deal as you say but the story died afrer a few days ,
why is Pastorgate that you say is a small deal , still got storys going
“Clinton in that (Bosniagate) it demonstrated a willingness to lie to the American people and the world”
Which is what the Pastor has effectively accused Obama of today on National TV. !
Does the Pastor lack credibilty Catrina ? or Obama
Callum at 336
I like his idea of seating pledged delegates and disallowing superdelegate participation. It just has a nice ‘appropriate pubishment’ feel to it.
Ron at 346
Thing is Ron that it has not died. Just spend a couple of hours looking at comments on the NYT or the Washington Post, or the Huff, Politico, TPM, whatever. While its not a talking point on the MSM it is a fact that has been embedded in the American psyche – Clinton’s lie. Now, just between you and me, I understood Bill’s position when he lied, after all he was under attack. But Hillary is in a different cycle – she’s attempting to sell herself to the American people and when the salesman lies to you, you get annoyed, you remember the moment. Americans know she is ready willing and able to lie to them and right now is probably not a good time to that.
Thing is – the real story is about Wright, not Obama.
Keeping in mind that I had a near death experience that I can directly attribute to a Pastor, I really don’t care what the particular Pastor or any other Pater thinks. A paster does not define me and I figure it it does not define Obama either. However – given you fetish on this subject – may I ask you if you have had a relationship with your pastor that we should know about?
Catrina thats a chat line question
As for bosniagate , media beatup.
A bad idea for a political stunt , it went bad , she lied to get out of it instead of fessing up , Obama has the same problem he won’t fess up to his lies either
ROTFLOL
Mr. Easley made his endorsement of Hillary Clinton official this morning ..
In the meantime Obama picks up another super on top of the two from yesterday.
Match up polls:
Once again, I invite anyone who wishes to look at the graphs for Mc/HRC and Mc/BHO:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_clinton-224.html#charts
…and since December 07 see how much the red line is above the blue line, and by what distance on both graphs.
As they stand now, HRC and BHO are only 1.5% apart, and both beat Mc, BUT, Mc has been above Clinton for longer, and higher, than over Obama.
Since this is a dynamic process, it’s probably best to view the data over time, and averaged over a number of polls as is done on RCP.
So anyone grabbing one poll and waving it around as if it changes anything, is being a bit less than numerate.
Ron at 349
I know you’re out there…I can feel you now. I know that you’re afraid. You’re afraid of us, you’re afraid of change…I don’t know the future…I didn’t come here to tell you how this is going to end, I came here to tell you how this is going to begin. Now, I’m going to hang up this phone, and I’m going to show these people what you don’t want them to see. I’m going to show them a world without you…a world without rules and controls, without borders or boundaries. A world…where anything is possible.
348
Catrina
Until national polls consistently rate Obama as less honest than Hillary Clinton (when the reverse has been the case by a sizable margin), then I’ll believe the histrionics of Jeremiah Wright are anything other than a diversion.
Ron at 349
I’m sorry Ron, but I’m really not qualified for that. If you have something concerning you relationship with your pastor that you need to fess up about then I’d suggest you fess up here – after all we are all friends – and we can help you. We could even help you with your Hillary fetish – but it’s a twelve step process. The first step is recognizing that you have a problem and I feel that we are getting closer to that point.
Oh gosh – look at what the NYTs is saying about the Wright controversy …
The headline reads Dribbling Past Reverend Wright. Go figure!
Ouch … the DCW figures are now back to neck and neck.
Hillary picks up Gov. Mike Easley from NC and at the same time Obama retaliates with DNC Richard Machacek from IA and the real race remains the same.
It’s +20 for the lady but kid is closing.
Just when you though it was safe to go back in the water a rumour emerges that Obama has another delegate in the pipeline ready to endorse within a couple of hours.
And another one for Obama.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/obama_nabs_another_superdelega_1.php
Someone should do something about this.
It’s just not fair.
Catrina, don’t you ever sleep?
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-list.html has Clinton’s lead in super-delegates below 20 for the first time that I can recall.
Well, they did a moment ago.
/em goes back to lurking….
I never had ‘religion” with that man.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/04/30/2230993.htm
As I predicted yesterday, a pathetic Philly Mark 2, at a press conference in Winston-Salem, N.C. I was spot on with my post at #236 & #238. Raises more questions and answers. More later.
Good day to all. Ron, sorry for the early beauty sleep, the bed was just too nice.
“Obama Nabs Another Super-Delegate
By Greg Sargent – April 29, 2008, 12:28PM
He just picked up the support of Iowa superdelegate and farmer Richard Machacek, reports the Des Moines Register.
That’s two for Obama today. The latest super del tally (not including the above): Hillary, 265; Obama, 243.
If Obama were to pull even with Hillary by this metric, that would be a big story.”
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/04/obama_nabs_another_superdelega_1.php
Remember the old Paul Simon song, “Slip Slidin’ Away”? It could be the theme song for today’s RCP averages as Obama’s lead continues to evaporate.
BHO’s lead in the national averages has slipped from 5.8 yesterday to 5.4 today. Not much movement there.
In NC, however, there’s been a further 2% erosion to take BHO’s lead to a still healthy 10.3 – down from 12.2 yesterday and 15.5 at the beginning of the week. He needs to slow that negative momentum quick.
Indiana has swung back to Hillary who now leads on average by 2.2, up from yesterday’s tie. Obama led by 3% for most of last week.
I forgot to mention the Hillary Deathwatch which has bumped Hillary up by 0.5% today on the back of the Wright media frenzy. The radical Rev has gifted nearly 1% to Hillary’s Deathwatch chances in the last 2 days.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190213/
364
Wall to wall Wright is muddying the waters. Better to be ’swiftchurched’ now than later however. Now he’s ahead of Clinton, virtually unassailable (unless some of his Supers mysteriously die! LOL).
He’s got lots of time to see Wright fade away, although the dear Reverend is milking his 15 seconds of fame for all it’s worth at the moment. (Who’s being a polititician now?)
As one astute US blogger points out:
Rev. Wright will not be moving into the White House if Obama wins the presidency.
If Hillary wins, Bill Clinton WILL be moving into the White House. Talk about baggage!
— Posted by bam
…and that, in a nutshell, is what people will eventually decide when they get bored with it and move on.
The more crazily the Rev Wright performs to the cameras, the less he seems relevent to Obama. So no surprises here, but by the general, Wright will have been done to death, and the public, as we can see, have a VERY short attention span, even for controversy, especially when it’s so obviously manufactured.
Mornin’ KR.
Yep, completely agree – but the poll averages are showing a clear movement away from our Kid. Mind you, such things are fickle and a win next Tuesday will see the press turn on Hillary again.
But he needs a healthy win in NC and a respectably close race in Indiana. Without that he will still be mathematically in front, but his moral claim to the nomination becomes that much more eroded. SD’s are unreliable souls and they tend to look at which way today’s winds are blowing. Do I think that 70% of the remaining SD’s will go for Hillary (assuming the rest hold firm)? Highly unlikely, though not impossible. Do I think Hillary can rally the Party and the Nation behind her if she is gifted the nomination?
Not a freakin’ chance!
Bush gives McCain a helping hand by blaming the Democrats for the economy. Expect this to be a recurring theme from now to November.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/29/AR2008042900698.html?hpid=topnews
FG – the current Hillary bounce would be on the back of a good win and press from PA. While poll movements have lagged a little and sometimes been counterintuitive, you’d expect a little more tightening when the Wright news cycle gets caught in polls. I’d think that this should happen right around the time that Indiana goes to the polls. And Obama probably doesn’t have time to stabilize, then have that reflected in polling before 6 May. Hillary really needs this to play there on the ground in Indiana, and if she can get away with a good result there, her narrative grows a few more legs. The stakes in that state are raised again.
40 Greg barber (Greens) in a previous post (comments closed) has referred a number of issues to the Victorian Electoral Matters Commission (A committee that the Greens have no representation on)
Will he also request that the EMC also review the method used in the calculation and distribution of surplus votes in the Upper house to remove the disproportionate distortion in the way the vote is calculated so as to ensure the voting system maintains a one one one value principle or is it a case of the Greens are happy with the current system as it unfairly discriminates in the Greens favour. The system should be based on the value of the votes and not the number of ballot papers transferred. 10 to 1 that the Greens will continue to turn a blind eye to this swerious flaw in the system which should be faxed before the November 2008 Victorian Local government elections whihc useds the same flawed system.
367
Ferny Grover
Yes, and if this is the best chance Hillary has to win it, then it’s a sad indictment on the Clinton brand name, eh?
But the Supers will have a much better feel for how this plays out, and let’s see how Obama’s rebuttal of Wright plays polls.
My feeling is that those who are already well disposed to Obama see it as manufactured slur by association, but the enemies of Obama will try to ride it for all it’s worth, as they seem to have to so little else. Yeah, did some drugs, yeah he knows a guy who was a student radical 40 years ago, and no, he did not lie about being under sniper fire! LOL
In one important sense, all this stuff is exactly what he’s been talking about, the politics of the inconsequential, the politics of ‘gotcha’ and the same old same old.
If he moves past it, he will only be seen better than those who rabbit on endlessly with innuendo and guilt by association.
I think he will show himself better than that, because he is.
368
Ferny Grover
Bait and switch, and not one US citizen (unless they are in the group of 30% who ‘approve’ the job Bush’s doing) will be fooled by it.
The remaining 70%, who actually have a brain, will know what to think of that!
Wrong universe, Senate Watch.
Pancho @ 373,
Right on many levels.
369
Pancho, the Indiana and NC primaries are not at a good time for Obama. As you say, it’s not possible to turn the polls around by then. Consequently the results there will probably be deflated for him and inflated for Hillary. NC is now looking likely to be a single digit win for BHO and Indiana could be anything up to a 5% win for Hillary on present tracking. In other words, a single digit win in NC and a single digit loss in Indiana. Not enough to alter the maths but enough to alter the narrative. Obama’s appeal to the maths can be interpreted as, “I was popular back in February, so I deserve the nomination.” Obviously Hillary will argue that she has the momentum and the support now, as well as wins in the big states that count.
It’s all BS and none of it is fair to Obama but SDs are interested in what’s happening today, not yesterday. A few will be swayed to Hillary by this. Will it be enough? I doubt it, but close races on Tuesday will weaken Obama further at a critical phase of the race. We can’t count Hillary out, though she remains an outside chance.
There’s a lot riding on Tuesday.
FG,
The SDs will be most interested in what will happen in November. You are right that the trend is to Hillary at the moment (and Wright’s latest jaunt hasn’t shown up yet). The question is can Obama turn it around? What is it he can do to connect with the socially conservative voters.
OMG senate watch is following me…
help!
Mate, your post bears absolutely NO relevance to what we are discussing here. Give up, or try another thread.
Ferny-
Hillary’s death watch figures are now (after a bump up from this current BS), 12.9%
That’s TWEVE POINT NINE percent.
Reminds me of our own little Brendan going from single digits back up to double, Still fatal.
376 GG
I’m not sure that Wright will figure much in the polling. The effect last time was, if anything, favourable to Obama.
Socially conservative voters are not ever going to be Obama’s strength. His ‘change’ message is completely at odds with the conservative need for safety and nostalgia. In order to comfort the socially conservatives, he could lose those who are hankering for change. Hillary, by contrast, offers, not experience as she claims, but a nostalgic link to the safety of the Clinton years. With his upbringing and community sector background, however, it’s odd that Obama is percieived as ‘elitist’. His life has been anything but elitist. In fact, he’s by far the least elitist of the three! But I agree that he needs to counteract this perception. Perception is reality in politics.
378 Jen
That’s it girl! Maintain the faith! Your right, Slate don’t give Hillary a snowball’s chance in Satan’s bog.
I’m just looking at the figures and the narrative and talking out loud (or typing quietly to you lot). I’m guessing that similar discussions are being had in the Obama bunker.
The maths are, and will continue to be, on Obama’s side. The polls, the press and the narrative is defintitely not. The SD’s hold all the cards and we don’t know which way they will fall. How persuaded are they by the polls, press and narrative?
Having said all that – if you were forced at gunpoint to bet your life’s possessions on someone, it wouldn’t be Hillary.
Ferny-
the MSM needs a story , so they need to create (invent) a contest, even when there isn’t one. And in doing so they try to influence the views of the populace. I thinkthe real question is, how influential is it these days, and how easily persuaded are the electorate? So far the evidence points to not very – after that last Rev Wright beatup Obama’s polling increased. He was never going to win Pennsylavania and Hillary won by only half of what was expected, so i feel hopeful that the voters are a bit wiser than they were 8 years ago, or even 4. Because Hillary’s whole argument is that she can recreate those pre 9/11 days. Which is utter nonsense of course.
Ferny@381
more likely she’d be holding the gun.
Ferny, that’s an interesting question:
Do Supers cave in to swiftchurch or do they change the narrative by backing Obama?
I’d suggest the latter is the most sensible thing to do because NOTHING will change the subject to the issues of the general quicker than Obama streaking to the finish line.
But the question still remains when? To do it now will put off the HRC supporters, so they must wait. If, as looks most likely, the remaining primary contests will be inconclusive, we are pretty much where we are today.
Except at that point the Supers can shut this down, end the first chapter, and then it’s a whole new ballgame.
There’s waiting, and there’s waiting too long. If Obama is still in front by the end of the primary season, there’s not going to be much joy in it for Clinton.
Oh, and the difference between Brendan and Hillary is the difference between the distant squeaky voice you can hear from over the hill and the hot breath you feel on the back of your neck. Hillary may be on 12.9% at the Deathwatch, but Obama knows she’s much closer than that.
Ferny@ 380
The only reassuring thing is the maths. As the SDs keep dribbling out, there are now less than 300 undecided. Hillary now needs about 75% of the remaining SDs. I think Obama winning next week will give lots of SDs the “excuse” to back Obama talking about an unassailable lead and uniting the party. Obama will fall over the line but not with much conviction.
I think Hillary will look back on this campaign as snatching defeat from the jaws of victory and I reckon Bill has a lot to answer for. South Carolina was the tipping point.
McCain and Clinton (now, there’s a lovely couple!) are both pandering populists:
It might seem axiomatic that cutting taxes on gasoline would make it cheaper. But economists also say a side effect of cheaper gas would be increased demand for fuel as more people drive. That, they point out, would put prices right back where they started.
“They’ll bid the price back up,” said Andrew Samwick, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College and a former economic adviser to President Bush.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/gas-tax-reduction-plans-counterproductive-economists/story.aspx?guid=%7BCB4025EB%2D767C%2D4FB7%2D8F03%2D4B3C313173D1%7D
…and the economic concensus is that it’s a crock.
Obama’s economic advisors have obviously told him as much, and he refuses to play the game of just saying there’s an easy solution when there isn’t.
So, who’s got integrity? Oh that’s right, McCain, he’s so full of it.
384
Agreed KR. We’re almost stuck in a holding pattern till 3 June. Nothing much will change before then. The week following will be fascinating to watch. I’m still banking on a Hillary concession, but I won’t win the wine. I’m guessing the concession will happen around June 10-15, and not on the evening of June 3 as I predicted.
Jen, there’s no doubt the MSN influence is not what it was. But something is driving the swing to Hillary and it is, partly at least, the press.
Ferny – I agree. it is the press, but my sense is (and I could be wrong- there’s always a first time) that after the complete misrepresentation of Buh’s disastrous regime by the MSM people may be less inclined to just accept whatever they are fed. Except the great unwashed, and theyt would always vote GOP (or Hillary) anyway. Unless they watch Opreh, and then they are Obama’s.
The swing back to her may also be simply about the inevitable slow down of an extraordinary momentum for Obama, which will probably ebb and flow right up to just before the final lap- just before he trounces McCain.
Surely the SD’s would beconsidering all of this when they look at the polls. Besides – he’s still winning. Just not as fast.
This is going to be fun, now the ex minister is trying to cover his backside
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23620701-601,00.html
Is this guy serious?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/an_old_newness.html
In his rabid denunciation of Obama’s calls for dialogue he warns that such notions cause soaring crime rates, riots, soaring inflation and unemployment and … wait for it …world war!
He’s clearly not read about the utter failure of ‘zero tolerance’, the successes of offender rehabilitation programs and the triumphs of international mediation in places like Bosnia, Sierra Leone and other world hotspots.
He’s a smooth operator:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aW_Qty8aiVTo&refer=us
…here’s the soundtrack:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1Aj2yODys0
391 Charles
Well that explains why Andrews deliberately misquoted the police transcript out of context in a way that would have seen him censured by his Bar Association were he still practicing as a lawyer. And he has the hide to charge Russo and Keim with unethical behaviour!
Good morning all
seems the more that generally white Americans see Obama as obviously ‘black’ the less they support him which may indicate a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites
So, Ron, you’re theory is that it’s taken America this long to notice Obama is black?
Oops … ‘your’ theory
I hope their health care plans include optical
David Brooks takes an interesting overview of the US:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/opinion/29brooks.html?hp
…and essentially, nails it.
Too much of the Rev, is never enough.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/blogtalk-the-wright-obama-drama/
Michigan being sorted?
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/04/29/another-primary-plan-proposed-in-michigan/
GG
#399
thanks for that GG , more information on the issue is enjoyed
the fiercely verbal opponents…. “Wright and Ron”
A sub text contrast between Wright and Obama has emerged,
Wright a brilliant Orator has a ‘ticker’ for his convictions , “content volcanic”
Obama a brilliant Orator has NO ‘ticker’ for his convictions , “content free”
perhaps Hillary could run a variation of those lines message in TV ads
“perhaps Hillary could run a variation of those lines message in TV ads”
She should. She definitely has the ‘ticker’ for her convictions. Pity they’re all delusional.
No chance Ron. Hillary needs to tread more carefully than she has to date and try to get this to run on its own. I think she’ll be on her bestest behaviour.
“I think she’ll be on her bestest behaviour”
You think so?
I figured she couldn’t resist.
Wait and see I guess.
By the way “Hilly”, in the first at Randwick, and “Barako”, in the first at Ipswich races today, both finished well back
Crikey, first quarter US figures:
650,000 foreclosure notices issued
That’s one house in 94 across the country.
Recession, housing prices collapsed on average 13% (with California around 25%), fuel prices increasing, inflation high, and two hundred year wars they cannot manage to support.
But let’s talk about Rev Wright! That will fix everything.
Is Obama black???!!!!
didn’t even notice, just like the yanks.
(next…)
What a great metaphor for Obama’s campaign.
Has the pig crashed and burned?
Did it explode from over inflated expectations?
Did it just deflate slowly as Hillary squeezed the oxygen from his support base?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/music/obamas-rock-pig-can-fly/2008/04/30/1209234906838.html
Is SUSA’s model reverse Bradleying in the South?
“They understated Obama’s margin over Clinton in Alabama by 14 points, and in South Carolina by 13 points. If you want to stretch and call Missouri a southern state, they were off there by 12 points.
Compare the poll results on the SurveyUSA webpagewith the actual votes in those states on CNN’s site. Whatever success SUSA has enjoyed this election season, it ain’t been in Dixie. Even with SUSA giving Obama a 5-pt. margin I would be confident of a double-digit victroy in NC.”
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/29/22312/4861/388/506080
GG @ 409
The orignal Pink Floyd pig was meant to be ASSASSINATED if it broke free and made a run for it. Now that’s a bad omen.
“The original Pink Floyd pig was designed by Roger Waters and built in December 1976 in preparation for shooting the cover of the Animals album. Plans were made to fly the forty-foot, helium-filled balloon over Battersea Power Station on the first day’s photo-shoot, with a marksman prepared to shoot the pig down if it broke free. However, the pig was not launched.
On the second day, the marksman wasn’t present because no one had told him to return, and the pig broke free due to a strong gust of wind (gaining a lot of press coverage). It disappeared from sight within five minutes, and was spotted by airline pilots at forty thousand feet in the air. Flights at Heathrow Airport were cancelled as the huge inflatable pig flew through the path of aircraft, eastwards from Britain, over the English Channel, finally landing on a rural farm in Kent that night.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Floyd_pigs
“Rush Limbaugh, citing the recent AP/Ipsos numbers, puts “Operation Chaos” on hold.
I was wondering whether we might see something like this. A very recent Rasmussen poll revealed that Republicans are now almost evenly divided on the question of whether Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would be the stronger opponent against John McCain.
Democrats, however, still believe Obama to be more electable by a 51-37 margin. On the one hand, I tend to think that looking yourself in the mirror is the hardest thing: if Republicans have concluded that Obama has taken enough hits that he’s now essentially equal to Clinton in electability, that might really tell us something. On the other hand, the media, and particularly the right-wing media, has had its sights squarely trained on Obama for about six weeks now. If Limbaugh hadn’t suspended Operation Chaos, then he would be admitting, in a sense, to his own impotence in shaping public opinion.
The media narrative, however, appears as though it might shift back toward Barack Obama after his well-received disavowal of Jeremiah Wright today. While predicting shifts in public sentiment is extremely difficult — predicting shifts in media sentiment tends to be very simple. Obama’s remarks today give him a pivot point, one that otherwise might have been hard to come by given the lack of major public events between now and Indiana. I wouldn’t quite go so far as to say that this could all turn out to be a net positive for Barack Obama — but it might be the closest approximation of ‘good’ news that he was going to be able to get between now and the next primaries. If his campaign can follow this up with a big endorsement within the next 24-48 hours, it could create the sense of real momentum.”
Of course, now that I realise Obama is black I can’t support him anymore.
Sorry, from: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/one-benefit-of-falling-poll-numbers.html
Diogenes@411 – Perhaps Hillary is the marksman who forget her rifle of Super Tuesday?
What Jen? Black, you say???
“The media narrative, however, appears as though it might shift back toward Barack Obama after his well-received disavowal of Jeremiah Wright today.”
Yeah, the Rev was not my spiritual advisor and mentor. I sat in his congregation for twenty years, but I had wax in my ears. Uncle Jerry is actually the family mad uncle, you know the silly old bugger that gets drunk and puts a light shade on his head every Christmas.
And FOX’s take seems to be a hedged bet about the ongoing importance:
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/04/29/will-offensive-against-wright-pay-off-in-the-primaries/
Seems to be much more bluster coming from Clintonites than the Republican right. This could be interpreted in a number of ways, but it sure is interesting.
Apparently so Pancho!
One of the informed PB posters says so, and I was horrified. Up until now I thought Obama was a good choice but just like those slowly-awakening Americans I can now see the truth. And so I’m going to support Hillary even though she is a lying, cheating narcisstic personality disordered lunatic,:at least she is white. Even McCain, even though he is a cadaver.At least he is not black. Phew! Glad we were told….
And a ton more bluster on PB than on FOX.
A quick reminder of who the bad guys really are.
“It would seem then that the Bush Administration has only two choices: cut a deal with the candidates on torture — or eliminate them from the race, one way or another. It goes without saying that John McCain will do nothing but revel in the authoritarian powers brought into the open by Bush; certainly it is inconceivable that he would ever prosecute the instigators of the Bush torture regime. Thus the focus here falls on the winner of the Democratic nomination.”
http://www.counterpunch.org/floyd04292008.html
Diogenes,
Normally, I am free ranging on my reading. However, that site in 421 had the following:
“Read how the Vietnamese protected and promoted McCain and how in return he danced to their tune. McCain was on Vietnamese radio so often he was tagged as “the PW Songbird”.
Malicious bulldust and I am assuming the rest of it is of the same quality.
Cheers.
GG
I haven’t read the McCain Songbird article as you have to subscribe to get it. Counterpunch has some brilliant articles.
The Songbird story has been around for a while. The allegation is that McCain got special treatment as the son of an Admiral and was very helpful to his captors. I don’t know how true it is but a lot of Vietnam Vets believe it. Here is an atricle from 1999 about it.
http://www.usvetdsp.com/smith_mc.htm
Yikes. Reverse swiftboating to add to McCain’s vulnerabilities. Were Reagan Democrat’s mentioned above?
Given that he received 16% of the vote in Pennsylvania, this is BAD NEWS for McCain.
Ron Paul not planning to campaign for McCain
http://www.infowars.com/?p=1775
He was singing like a canary, Dio. I shall call him Tweety Biwd from now on.
There are an awful lot of allegations in this article about McCain collaborating etc. Maybe he will be reverse Swiftboated. Frankly, under the circumstances, I’d hardly blame him for talking on radio to stop his torture. I don’t think it’s a big deal one way or the other but if he was a Democrat, the Repug dirt machine and media would have a field day.
John McCain Is No “Hero POW”
http://www.usvetdsp.com/mcianhro.htm
Obama’s problem is what came from his LIPS in Philly to millions admitting Wright is his mentor , his friend , his Pastor , his marrige Minister, his kid baptiser ,
his teacher, his inspiration, kind & non racist in my home, I can NOT disown him
Obama proudly oratorised, for 20 years I attended , silently privately disagreeing.
The day after Philly , Obamabots hailed the Philly speech to Lincoln’s greatest
and were derisory when it was said the Oratory was brilliant but the content was a shaby attempt to deflect Obama’s culpability with the Pastor moron.
Obamabots were indignant of such heresy , but even more ’shrill’ when it was said the Philly speech was all about a ‘con’ defence for Obama re Wright that
would ultimately implode policitaly…..it has only just started. its not the end
Its a political reality
Ah Ron, that speech was about so much more than Wright. You appear incapable of seeing that, even though representatives from across the entire political spectrum have acknowledged as much. Yes, it was driven by political expediency, but that does not alter its substance.
Anyway, keep railing with the same talking point. For mine, I’ll wait and see if the polls prove you wrong. Again.
How’s the cricket going Ron?…or won’t you watch it over in that coloured land.
#421
Thanks for the link – the article by Mike Whitney on the Reverend Wright is worth a read
“Wright means nothing to the media or to the men behind the curtain. If he didn’t provide an avenue for denigrating Obama, he’d be treated with the same indifference as the thousands of other blacks who were herded at gunpoint into the Superdome during Hurricane Katrina. Better buckle up. Obama has entered the crosshairs of America’s criminal oligarchy and things are bound to get nasty.”
Pancho
#429
No pancho , 40% of the speech was about the Wright problem. The speech was
not only a ‘political defence (but amatuerish) con’ , as predicted, the events of the last few days have shown up either Obama’s lies or his incompetence.
As for Polls the only National ones you guys quote are pro Obama. democrat vs Democrat. So seeing you guys quote your source, I know you are also seeing the more relevant to POTUS National polls of Hillary vs McCain and Obama vs McCain. Now why don’t you guys ever quote them
You guys mistake was to so overcomit to Obama so early , based on a ‘change message’, that when Pastorgate for example has shown him to lack so many required POTUS qualities you’ve already bought the product….also ‘content free’
Harryd’H,
Yet another thoughtful contribution to the discussion.
that the ol labradour growling again?
i’m 10 lengths behind you on that score ol china.
“democrat vs Democrat”
Sorry Ron, enlighten me. Which non-Democrat is running for the Democratic nomination? All these pseudo-scientific musings about blackness, ‘cons’ and ‘ticker’ are fascinating, but again, not hitting the polling. They may yet, and I’ll be watching with interest. But so far none of your predictions (gates?) have been what you thought they would be.
Pancho,
With regard to Ron,
Your problem is your false unconsciousness.
You’re spinning me out, man.
Dio, have you come across the story about the guy who actually saved McCain’s life? He pulled the shot down pilot out the water and saved him from drowning.
Check it out, it’s very interesting what McCain did not do for him. (He died fairly recently)
Pancho , “All these pseudo-scientific musings about blackness”. If you disagree with my stated opinion you are able to but chose not to. As to the Democrat vs Democrat comment , you avoided the question why was why you don’t quote the other National polls involving contender matchups ?
As to the Democrat Nominee race, you ‘liberal’ Democrats , typical of Obamabots
always pick losers who don’t win POTUS, and later reflect as losers that the purity of your ideology was worth being in opposition. The morons of the ALP’s socialists left also thought this for decades
This is a ripper.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/video/2008/04/29/VI2008042900568.html?sid=ST2008042801405
Tues April 29: Brutusina Butches-up, * hoik, spit….ding*
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AjlQhtsTrojOLQm6t9jfbARX_b4F
Wed.April 30:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=Ag4pXPJ1n9cJt3PT9mVXBrwV2r8F
Wed April 30:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=An.cfFNi6DK7HUi6dCXZWm1L6ysC
And again today, betting markets are just where they were a week before PA. Save thyselves the trouble, ye doubting neocon Thomases. Weights right, believe me!
“Mad Dog” Wright don’t seem to play
Where smart money’s being layed.
Nor in the delegate count as in they trickle in so tantalizingly slowly. Kid’s doin’just fine there. And in the Popular Vote too. A-Freakin’-One, Obi, you da Man!
Maybe the voters are in accord with educated punters he-ah. We’ll have a pretty good idea this time next week. You betcha!
Wright’s deliberately givin’ Obi static for his own cheap aggrandizement.
There couldn’t be any nefarious rapscallions putting him up to this, could there? Well of course there couldn’t! Just have to learn to keep my crazy, commie, conspiracy-theory mouth shut. That lovely Mr. Rove wouldn’t dare let a thought so outrageous cross his patriotic, GOP-lovin’ mind, nor would a gentleman like Karl take advantage of it if it did.
These days he just does his spot on Fox nights, then goes home. Keeps pretty much to himself, never talks to a soul.
Hillary to appear on Fox. As KR might say, pass the popcorn.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/clinton-to-make-first-oreilly-factor-appearance-2008-04-29.html
Meanwhile, the adults are concerned about the latest melding of HRC and Mc:
It is great to see that we finally have some national unity on energy policy. Unfortunately, the unifying idea is so ridiculous, so unworthy of the people aspiring to lead our nation, it takes your breath away. Hillary Clinton has decided to line up with John McCain in pushing to suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline, 18.4 cents a gallon, for this summer’s travel season. This is not an energy policy. This is money laundering: we borrow money from China and ship it to Saudi Arabia and take a little cut for ourselves as it goes through our gas tanks. What a way to build our country.
The McCain-Clinton gas holiday proposal is a perfect example of what energy expert Peter Schwartz of Global Business Network describes as the true American energy policy today: “Maximize demand, minimize supply and buy the rest from the people who hate us the most.”
Good for Barack Obama for resisting this shameful pandering.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/opinion/30friedman.html?hp
…but the self-Wrighteous have a far more important subject to keep banging on about as it inflames their racist itch, so why discuss actual policies or Obama’s actual attitudes and actions?
I’ve heard that Hillary is going on Rush’s show too, since his support has softened a bit! LOL
By the way, the serious minded should read the rest of the Friedman article about how Bush kneecapped the alternative energy industy in the US.
It’s enough to make you weep. Dumbocracy, here they come!
KR,
I don’t know, if a polly in Australia was to say they will drop pump prices by 4-5 cents a litre if you elect me, then it would be quite popular. Might even be a smarter way to deliver rebates and benefits etc.
With oil at $125 US standing behind the wisdom of market forces might re inforce a stereo type of someone out of touch with the average family.
Just saying, this is an election which is about gathering enough votes to win and making the other person look weak. I perceive purity of philosphy may not be the strategy in this case.
GG is right, KR. Obama should come back with free petrol for everybody.
GG
It’s ok, it’s ‘non-elitist’ pandering! LOL
GG – unless, like in Australia, people realise that continual tax cuts haven’t really been helping them.
Ron, I concede you may altimately be right.
With more Wright press, the US might decide that Obama is too black for them to vote for. Although objective evidence, so far, suggests otherwise. After the first bit of Wright, Obama got a bump.
They might also decide that the bitter episode means that Obama is not a man of the people (unlike his opponents, each of whom are worth hundreds of millions). But again, the facts aren’t with this one.
Or the SDs might be watching electoral-vote.com, rather than any other national or state based voting systems that show Obama ahead, and decide that he is unelectable. Although this is not helped by the fact that Obama’s lead in this race by just about every metric has extended over the past month (with the exceptions of the PA vote and Hillary’s shrinking SD lead).
Or they might decide that Obama is unelectable and his opponent, with negative ratings around 50%, is their silver bullet, but again facts aren’t with you, as the continual drip of SDs attests.
Generally speaking, I’m pretty happy that my money is on Obama.
ultimately
So, according to some posters on this site the POTUS should be decided by appealing to the lowest common denominators of racism, nonsensical scandals and no reigning in of consumption – starting with fuel.
Fabulous.
I fervently hope the citizens of the United States show more foresight and common sense than they are being credited with. It affects the future of the entire planet and the social development of their own sorry nation.
And it is sad that in a discussion about democracy, which by definition allows for change and progress, there are those who insist that the only way forward is to return to the past.
Wrong.
It is an interesting dilemma though Jen. Energy costs are the squeal test as far as voters’ stated concerns about the greenhouse effect goes. A good chance for our Obi to prove his green credentials.
I’m guessing that Clinton isn’t counting on Al Gore’s endorsement.
I agree TW, and I am not unrealsitic about the impact of fuel prices on cost of living etc, but you have to show some kind of leadership regarding climate change and Hillary and McCain are doing wjhat they do best- Bugger all except self-promotion. I expect Obama will be v. moderate on teh whole thing, but that would be an improvement on doing nothing.
Nearly three decades later, a Vietnamese government commission confirmed he was indeed the rescuer and, in a 1996 meeting in Hanoi, McCain embraced and thanked Mr On and presented him with a Senate memento.
From that brief encounter to his death at the age of 88 two years ago, Mr On never heard from the senator again, and three years after their meeting, McCain published an autobiography that makes no mention of his apparent debt to Mr On.
It is a snub Mr On took to his death.
His widow, Bui Thi Lien, 71, said: “In his last years, my husband was very sad sometimes.
He would say, ‘Mr McCain has forgotten me.’
How war hero John McCain betrayed the Vietnamese peasant who saved his life
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/worldnews.html?in_article_id=542277&in_page_id=1811
I agree TW, and I am not unrealistic about the impact of fuel prices on cost of living etc, but you have to show some kind of leadership regarding climate change and Hillary and McCain are doing wjhat they do best- bugger all except self-promotion. I expect Obama will be v. moderate on the whole thing, but that would be an improvement on doing nothing.
Jen at 451, your dreams about the US voting public are just that. remember they voted in GWB twice (oh well, at least once!)
Ferny , Pancho, EC , Kirri , j/v ,Turning , HarryH , dogb , codger , ‘etc’
Is there any room on your side to be consistent & if later you’re in error fess ?
Starting about 8 weeks ago , I’ve consistently said the Pastor
1/ Ron: he’s a ‘whacko’ and had extremely divisive cultural & political attitudes
Yous 100% derided this. Yous: just a traditional ‘black’ preacher. Still think so ?
2/ Ron: had made grossly racial divisive & disgraceful anti American comments.
Yous 100% derided this also. Yous said he’d spoken only in ‘context’ re the bad ‘black’ past and nothing he’d said about US of A was untrue. Still think so ?
3/ Ron: Obama’s 20 years association with the Pastor would cause political grief
Yous 100% derided this also. Yous said its a non issue, said “move on’ 100 times
as I was trying to ‘create’ a story that would be forgotten quickly . Has it ?
4/ Ron; 18/3/08 Philly speech was disingenous & an insuffient defence re Wright
Yous 100% derided this also.Yous said he’d ‘killed’ the Pastor beatup. Did he ?
5/Ron Obama’s Philly statement” I will not disown him” was wrong. He should hav
Yous 100% derided this also. No he shouldn’t disown him, why should he. Still ?
6/ Pastorgate was a serious political story that would continue unless he killed it
Yous 100% derided this also. Yous said the Pastor story will die itself. Has it ?
etc etc
I was not alone , GG and FINNS said the same things. But we admit Hillary is
a liar , is over ambitious , is politically cynical etc but you guys think Obama is perfect and so for yous Pastorgate was and still is a ‘non issue’. It is not because it reveals things about the Obama’s convictions (lack of) , his ticker, his poor judgement & his expediency etc
Andrew-
I think we underestimate the impact of the dawning of awareness of the American people for the very reason you stated. They voted Bush in twice. And now they are seeing the repurcussions. What makes humans different from other mammals is that we can think (sometimes).
Ron, did you see the Jon Stewart clip I linked to last night?
Any response I gave to you would be just a poor rehash of everything that was shown and stated in that clip.
You see Wright as the issue, I see the issue being the media and neocon exploitation of a passionate and proud black man who is not interested in conforming to the narrow stereotype of what is acceptable for a man like Reverend Wright.
Wright is a man who feeds the hungry, shelters the homeless and rails against a system which creates such injustices which he deals with on a daily basis.
EC & Jen
hit button before reading my blog. I now retract your nameas my memory from a long time ago makes me think you were not into this debate directly
However Jen , Megan & Catrina should have been shown as we do not want gender issues
Farewell bludgers until September, by then at least the Democrats will have a nominee and maybe we shall have a new Liberal Party leader…who knows??
In case I don’t see ya, good afternoon, good evening, and good night!
Ron- I have no idea what you are talking about. (If anyone else out there can translate feel free.)
Gender issues??
I was talking about racism and climate change, but hey…
Dio at 455, photo-ops for immediate promos were just fine and dandy, but acknowledging the humanity of Mr. On was another thing entirely. Mano a mano over a great lunch and a couple of cold whatevers. That would have taken the courage of an honourable warrior. One of nobility, decency.
How unsurprising that the mean-spirited old warmonger is fair itchin’ to Bomb-Bomb I-ran.
Except this time someone else will be droppin’ ‘em on the women and kids. And those who will not stop until their country is free, will sleep all the more soundly for it!!
Talk to the hand, Jen.
I think the hand is busy EC.
Have to agree with the Hillary clan that this Wright stuff is not a good look, although I wonder whether it will affect the polls. At the end of the day, Hillary needs to win the remaining races by huge margins, which is impossible.
Obama would have been better off coming out more strongly against Wright the first time, although I guess he did not anticipate that Wright would in effect hang him out to dry. Obama coming out know makes it look like he wants to have it both ways, although I think Hillary’s “sniper fire” lie is worse.
Also hope McCain gets swiftboated. Sweet revenge
Andrwe,
Obama makes the “mistake” of crediting voters with some intelligence. he may well be proved wrong , but it will only reflect on the people themselves if they fall for this beat up crap.
We get the politicians we deserve after all.
I’ve still got my fingers crossed (and nose clips in place) in the possibly vain hope that the human species is still evolving, and not stuck with the idiocy of Bush McCain, and sadly I now have to add , the Clintons.
that would be AndrEw. I also vainly hope that my typing skills may evolve, but alas…
Little boy lost, little boy blue. The total Humiliation of Obama.
Obama has been totally humiliated, shown total disdain and contempt from someone he loves or (now loved), whom he has called his Uncle, his mentor, his Pastor, his spiritual guide, his inspiration, did his marriage and baptized his children. Someone he would not throw under the bus as he threw his grandma under the bus.
This someone also has made his speech on Race few weeks back looks ridiculous. A speech that has been
hailed one of the most important speeches since MLK’s “I had a Dream” Speech. That Race speech is now looking hollow, shallow and irrelevant because it has been trampled on by Wright, again. In one sentence Wright has destroyed that speech: “He is a politician, he has to say whatever he has to say to get elected”. Game, set and match.
The big mistake Obama made was he tried too be too cute and too smart. The Philly Speech should
have been a tactical speech to cut away the Pastor, cut away the umbilical cord. Instead, he went for the
strategic Kumbaya Race speech to start a “Conversation on Race”. But obviously the Pastor wasn’t listening.
It is obvious now that Wright has been angered by that speech. Basking in the “glory” and “eulogy”
bestowed on Obama out of that speech, Obama has shown that he his both naive and stupid to assume that he has put away Wright. By appeasing Wright in that speech, he has achieved the opposite. The glory and eulogy he received probably also add further anger in the Pastor. So the Pastor went on a carefully planned media appearances to humiliate Obama. First PBS, Baptist Church in Dallas and then the full glare of national and international audience of the NPC. Where he repeated and emphasized all the video bits that have been played and played. And add few more new juicy ones.
Mocking Obama, [REVEREND WRIGHT: And I said to Barack Obama, last year, "If you get elected, November the 5th, I'm coming after you, because you'll be representing a government whose policies grind under people."] He is reminding Obama of the IOUs that he has in his pocket. There is no doubt, Obama owes a lot to the Pastor. Politically, Obama probably would not be where he is today if he has not come under the wing of the Pastor, especially as a State Senator.
Wait there is more. Further humiliation, because Obama is forced to make another speech to counter the Pastor. Yet, he still has not had the ticker to cut the umbilical cord, the best that he can come up with
is: ["I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever
relationship I had with Reverend Wright has changed as a consequence of this.] – But change to what?
Further humiliation was also confirmed by Obama himself: ["I don't think that he showed much concern for me. I don't -- more importantly, I don't think he showed much concern for what we are trying to do in this campaign and what we're trying to do for the American people and with the American people...... But at a certain point, if what somebody says contradicts what you believe so fundamentally, and then he questions whether or not you believe it in front of the National Press Club, then that's enough. That's -- that's a show of disrespect to me. It's a -- it is also, I think, an insult to what we've been trying to do in this campaign]
But the most stupid statement Obama made in Mark 2 is “:[You know, I have been a member of Trinity United Church of Christ since 1992. I have known Reverend Wright for almost 20 years. The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I met 20 years ago.] – does he not realise people change, especially over 20 years. Yet his inconsistency shows up when he described: ["Mr. Ayers as somebody who engaged in detestable acts 40 years ago, when I was 8 years old"]. So he did not know that his Pastor has changed over 20 years, yet he is certain that Mr. Ayers have changed.
The Pastorgate has demonstrated that Obama does not have the credibility, judgement and the capacity to handle crisis.
Wait for Mark 3.
so the finns, would you prefer McCain to Obama as POTUS
Don’t you have anything better to do?
dogb , codger , ‘etc’
ron, I’m special, what happened? Sheesh, even changed my screensaver.
Jen I didnt mean to be too negative about US voters- they may prove me wrong. In relation to the Wright thing, I feel how I felt when the neative stories thing broke for Rudd last year such as Therese;s business and Score. Hope that the electorate will see past this and vote for change
TW @ 460
‘The problem is a contemporary political culture that has come to rely on character assassination as an easy tool for reversing electoral misfortune — and a media that willingly invites manipulation.’
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/thebeat/316575
ron get working
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/wright.transcript/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker
But have a laugh on the way, the nightmare has landed.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/arts-reviews/fear-of-a-brown-planet/2007/10/02/1191091101728.html
KR and others,
I could agree with you all if the economy was pure. But, it is not. Remember, we live in a society not an economy.
The facts are that the price of oil has risen $30 a barrel this year which is an enormous shock in the pocket to everyone, families included. Add to that a recession. The US Government has just distributed $640 to families throughout the US through a special family rebate. (They are saying there is more required).
So Governments distributing a short term stimulus to the economy in difficult times is nothing new. I just contend that a 4-5 cent reduction in petrol prices for a few months is not the worst economic crime ever committed.
As for those who claim Rudd’s election was the triumph of principle over short term bribery, may I remind you that Rudd and Swan neutralised tax as an issue by agreeing to $31billon of tax cuts (compared to the Libs $34B). That is, they basically matched the Libs. Without the tax cuts we would probably be talking about the transition to PM Costello.
I can certainly agree there needs to be more done on conservation and alternative fuels. However, without a plan or an infrastructure, then the only short term tool the Government has is tax cuts.
Oh, and please remember that we a have a political contest in play. Not an economic one. Don’t know who would vote for an economist. The battle is about being elected not being pure. As Gough said many years ago, “The pure are always impotent”.
471 Finns
“But the most stupid statement Obama made in Mark 2 is “:[You know, I have been a member of Trinity United Church of Christ since 1992. I have known Reverend Wright for almost 20 years. The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I met 20 years ago.”
I’m betting good money that Wright was just a whacko 20 years ago as he is now. Obama is full of sh*t on this one. Those irrational religious impulses are coming home to roost. Religion and politics are an explosive mix and he’s getting burnt bad.
Finns,
Good post @471.
It must be a gut wrenching betrayal for Obama because of all the emotional investment that he had in this guy.
And, I reckon there will be more to come over the coming months.
Diogenes.
I share your outrage that the nonsense that is religion has any part to play in human affairs, and more particularly something as important and defining as politics. But given that we are in the minority for now, and given that every candidate who will even get near to running for POTUS has to proclaim their faith and wear it on their sleeve, surely it is the application of their faith that is at issue- not the fact that they claim it.
And so the real question is who will apply their ‘Christian principles’ in the most useful way.
What’s your hunch?
According to recent polls, Clinton is leading in Indiana.
Jen @ 480
I don’t think the phrase “Christian principles” has any meaning. Not wearing mixed-fibre garments, which the Bible precludes? Turning the other cheek? Loving thy neighbour as yourself? An eye for an eye? Anyone can justify anything by interpreting the Bible or whatever to suit their own agenda and prejudices.
I would also argue that a truly “Christian” person, using the love thy neighbour criteria, would make a pretty crappy POTUS. Humility, poverty etc would be incompatible with the position.
428
“Pastor moron”?
I guarantee Ron that intellectually he would leave you in in the dust. The man may be many things but an idiot he aint.
#479 – GG – agreed. i actually have a lot of sympathy for Obama, but then it is also self-inflicted. He is simply too inexperience and starry eyed. I have said previously many times, his timing is all wrong. he should have served one term Veep with Hillary and he will be a great POTUS. i think he is now politically mortally wounded by the Pastorgate.
GG, are you saying that free petrol won’t increase Obama’s electability?
Evening all.
OK, just read some of my way through this page, and checked out some other blogs, and I’ve got to say my head is spinning!
Republicans and Hillary supporters are clearly out in full force, twisting and weaving their way through the words from Obama today and Wright yesterday, desperately trying to create a giant mountain out of a molehill – that’s right a MOLEHILL.
For a good example, check out Finns’ post at #471. Hillary supporters are practically wetting themselves with glee!
But in the REAL world, where substance matters, this manufactured issue will barely impact on the voters that matter. There are at least two reasons:
1) The vested interests have blown it so far out of proportion, it now clearly looks and smells like a beat-up, even to voters who haven’t been following the story;
2) The idea that Obama shares Wright’s views simply doesn’t wash because it doesn’t actually fit Obama’s character that we have come to know.
So a free TIP to all Hillary supporters: If you want to smear someone with a pile of dirt, don’t overdo it, and make sure the smear actually ties in with some kind of known truth about that person, otherwise it just looks really DODGY.
And keep trying – Hillary has already lowered herself in the estimation of many Democrat supporters, so with some more smears and maybe a few more lies thrown it as well, she might soon hit rock bottom. She’s already turning off a whole heap of superdelegates…
Echoing my previous post:
It is because Wright’s message is the opposite of Obama’s. Obama’s chief selling point is that he is a healing force in American politics. Obama tells us he can bring people together.
But Wright isn’t interested in bringing people together. He is interested in dividing them.
Wright is also interested in taking Obama down a peg or two. In his speech at the National Press Club on Monday, Wright was contemptuous of Obama, accusing him of being just another hypocritical politician.
Why? I imagine because Obama had the audacity to distance himself from Wright and some of his more inflammatory statements a few weeks ago.
Wright is clearly angry with this and went out of his way to say that Obama really hadn’t distanced himself. Obama was, Wright said, just playing politics.
It was meant to soothe Wright’s wounded ego and punish Obama for trying to push him away. And Wright knew who was superior.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9961.html
482
Ignorance does not become you Diog. You’re better than that.
483 Ferny Grover Says:
Ferny: “I guarantee Ron that intellectually he would leave you in in the dust. The man may be many things but an idiot he aint.”
Ron: an idiot the Pastor isn’t ? , wow , you may think so however I bet every member of Obama’s inner sanctum agrees with me Wright is an idiot !
8 weeks ago I also called Wright a ‘whacko’ and a transcript read of his Press Club speech demonstrates that also
Also Ferny, your posts after the Philly speech (re Obama saying at Philly)
“I will not disown him’
The next day following my assertion the Philly speech was a shaby ‘con’ to coverup Obama by Obama & to kill the story (which I said would not work) , I also said Obama should ‘disown him’
Your reply in the context you thought the Philly speech was a ‘gettysburg’ type speech was to say NO, Obama should not disown him , and as you were swooning in the love of the Philly speech I believe you said something like: ‘I would be personally disappointed if he did that. Guess you are now disappointed
Finns @ 487
‘But Wright isn’t interested in bringing people together. He is interested in dividing them.’
Yeah right Finns…
‘I am sorry your local political analysts and your neighboring county executives think my being here is polarizing and my sermons are divisive, but I’m not here to address an analyst’s opinion or a county executive’s point of view. I am here to address your 2008 theme, and I stand here as one representative of the African American religious tradition which works in concert with other faith traditions, believing as we work together that a change is going to come.
On that point, about other faith traditions, in addition to Pastor Anthony, Pastor Nicholas Hood, Pastor Charles Adams, Pastor William Revelli, Pastor James Perkins, Pastor Wilma Rudolph, Pastor Holly who is suffering from a stroke, Father Michael Flager, Father Jeremy Tobin, Pastor Dee Dee Coleman, Dr. Georgia Hill and Rev. Lonnie Peek. I would also like to thank Sister Melanie Maron, the former executive director of the Chicago chapter of the American Jewish Committee and the current executive director of the Washington, D.C., chapter of the American Jewish committee. I would like to thank my good friend and Jewish author Tim Wise for his support, and I would like to offer a special “shookran” to Imam Muhammad Ali Elahi of the Islamic House of Wisdom in Dearborn Heights for his courage, his conviction and his support.
The support of the Jewish community, the Muslim community, and the Christian community, Protestant and Catholic, is in concert with the credo of the NAACP and a definite sign that a change is definitely going to come. An additional special thank you is offered to Soledad O’Brien for CNN’s outstanding “Black in America” and my long-term friend Roland Martin.
I believe that a change is going to come because many of us are committing to changing how we see others who are different.’
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/28/wright.transcript/index.html?eref=rss_politics&iref=polticker
Read it & weep.
Diogs -
I did use inverted commas.
And you didn’t answer:
who would apply the “love thy neighbour as thyself ” principle the best out of the 3? it’s all we’ve got.
…or the “do unto others” bit.
positively masochistic in the hands of Hillary or Bomb-Bomb don’cha reckon?
488 Ferny
I think I expressed myself badly. I have great respect for what are generally considered “Christian values” such as humility, charity, respect, kindness and honesty. They are the measure of a great society and people.
My problem with “Christian values” is that people like George W Bush and the neocons profess a great love for God and “Christian values”. They use religion to justify their actions which are inevitably dishonest, greedy, aggressive and vicious. It is the most disgusting hypocrisy imaginable. And I don’t hear too many Christians taking the neocons to task for it.
I wish the Christians would let the rest of us know what they really stand for. I just don’t hear it anymore.
So Diogs – i repeat . Of the potential nominees, who do you think would espouse the values you outlined? There are 3 choices…
#492 – Diog – [“Christian values” such as humility, charity, respect, kindness and honesty] – these are not “Christian values” . these are simply universal human values hijacked by religions.
490 Jen
I would have said Huckleberry would have been the most “Christian” until he quit although I gather several of the minor Democrats like Kuchinich and Biden are decent human beings. Of the three left in the race I think McCain is on a personal level, although Obama would do more to promote “Christian values” in the US.
Finns- agreed.
But this is politics, so the nominees are going to have to meet the checklist , and in current politics it is going to include devout religious belief. And in the US is it going to require a declaration of Christian faith. Let’s hope that within a few years we have all moved on. Or even a century or so.
Diogenes-
McCain wants to drop bombs on civilians. Again . I am sorry, but I dont see how you can name him as the most representative of humility, love and peace.
Dear Noocat,
The only wetting I can see is the flood of tears you seem to be dripping all over the blog. Anyone else wearing their raincoat?
Codger
the words you quoted were cheap Rfrom whaco ev Wright words , read the transcript of his queestion & answer session including twice indicating Obama is a liar
Now you are you with Wright or Obama
Massive contradictions NOW between Obama’s Philly speech and what the Pastor said to the Press Club have increased and more with Obama’s Press conference today
One thing for the Repug TV d machine will be from Obama’s interview today :
“I have known Reverend Wright for almost 20 years. The person I saw yesterday was not the person that I met 20 years ago.”
So Mr Obama , you met him just once 20 years ago and just once 20 years later. Have we forgotten the whole 20 years in between , church attendance , wedding , baptism , mentor , friend at home….we are forgetting all those 20 years in between
When did Rev Wright cease to be the person you saw yesterday , what yesterday ?
Well Rev Wright WAS the person you met 20 years ago up to 18/3/08 Philly speech !
Obama’s repeated disingenuous use of words may be regarded as deceiving words
493 Diogs
I gotta agree. The Church has allowed Bush et al to proclaim their Christianity why practicing gross injustices, perpetuating fear and bigotry and encouraging self-interest on a global scale. Many in the church have not only remained silent but have encouraged their hypocrisy. I’ve really no idea how the followers of Jesus can justify being so conservative when He was the opposite.
Finns: The ‘virtues’ are indeed ‘Christian values’ though not exclusively so. Noone ‘hijacked’ them. Societies acknowledged abd encouraged behaviours that resulted in not only the survival of communities but in what some philosophers call ‘human flourishing’ or happiness. Among these things are honesty, courage, courtesy, respect, compassion and justice.
Thanks Noocat- once again it is only pandering to the ignorant that anyone can use that against Obama.
I agree with evey word the Pastor says. Except “God Bless (or Damn) America”, as i would haveto believe in god so the taht bit seems like a lapel-pin-proves-patriotiosm load of effing nonsense.
Ron- your views represent everything that I despise about this debate. Small-minded, trivial, nit-picking, inflating the benign, making mountains out of mole-hills, defending the indefensible, wedging, and not usiong comprehensible language. you should run for the Repugs. Or are you actually GWB having a shot at blogging?
489 Ron
I’ve seen nothing to indicate Rev Wright is a fool. As I say, he is a very intelligent guy. I know that, to you, that makes him an ‘elitist’ but he has spent his life working to overcome the injustices apparent in his community – feeding the hungry, housing the homeless, combatting AIDS – and being a social justice advocate.
What have you done lately?
As for Obama, I believe I said that if he disowned his pastor, he would diminish himself. While I understand the political realities he faces, I believe he has indeed diminished himself and it’s a tragedy that in the face of uninformed biggoted bleatings similar those you repeatedly visit upon this blog, he felt the need to abandon Wright. I still maintain that read in context, Wright’s comments are correct – and unremarkable. But America has always been bad at facing the truth – especially from a black guy.
Wright’s timing, of course, is another matter entirely.
502 Ferny
All the most successful religions have similar “values”, ie Judeo-Christian, Hinduism, Islam and Buddhism. This is no coincidence. They are a “recipe” for a successful society. I suspect religion is a “natural phenomenon” as Daniel Dennett argues.
505 Ferny
very well said
Jen, I also agree with quite a few of the things I have heard from Wright.
The issue as I see it is a culture clash. In Wright’s church, and many other Black churches, it is probably normal for the Pastor to say things in a direct, uncensored, and occasionally bombastic way.
But the other folks of the US are not used to hearing inconvenient truths spoken in this way, while some are not used to hearing inconvenient truths at all (!), so they get hot and bothered, and start wondering if Wright is anti-American. It offends polite society.
And then you have the right-wing media, the Repugs, and the Hillary supporters, which are all just morphing into one big anti-Obama, anti-change club trying to score political points by exploiting the cultural divide.
Diogenes & Ferny
There is a Compass programme on Richard Dawkins next Sunday night that could be interesting. It’s even interesting that it’s on at all.
#504 – jen – [Small-minded, trivial, nit-picking, inflating the benign, making mountains out of mole-hills, defending the indefensible, wedging, and not usiong comprehensible language] – dont sit on your moral high horse. i could say the same thing about the way Hillary has been attacked here.
The trouble with religion, Dio, is that it may begin as a collection of essential virtues, but then it often solidifies into a mechanism for social control and exclusion. Hence, religious bigotry can result – and we have all witnessed the results of that.
Still, I have known many outsanding ‘people of faith’ whose regious beiefs inspire them to work to overcome the effects of injustice and ignorance. Some of them are the most courageous people I know. Those of you in Sydney may know Rev Graham Long, for example. He heads up the Wayside Chapel. The guy has spent his life working with our society’s untouchables. I don’t think I’ve ever known a more inspiring bloke.
I’m not on any high horse Finns. and I have not included you in my criticism, because while I don’t agree with your position on Clinton/Obama nor do I see you resort to such views without at least some kind of reasoning. If only some of your fellow supporters had at least a semblence of rationality.
#512 – jen – there are only 3 of us and maybe about 20 of you lot. So by any statistical averages, which side do you think would have more of the irrational ones?
Religion always has and always will be a mechanism to keep the great unwashed in line and authority in authority.
Ferny i agree with what you say about Rev Long but i believe he would be doing exactly what he is doing even if there was no “religion”…..Why?….because he was born with a good heart.
Ferny- some just stand out on their own merit. Forget averages.
(btw- have you wondered why ??)
sorry -515 was a response to Finns, not Ferny.
#516 – is that what they call a “Freudian” slip?
Agreed Harry- there’s plenty of ‘good’ atheists out there.
Vale Pamela Bone.
Just a confusion of Effs.
GG and FINN , you guys are better than re the concise ’silver bullet’ responses
Ferny #502
‘I’ve really no idea how the followers of Jesus can justify being so conservative when He was the opposite”
Ron: So Jesus was a Democrat. And the ‘church’ are to blame, ministers to hell ?l
Jen #503
“agree with evey word the Pastor says. Except “God Bless (or Damn) America”,
Ron: including him saying (twice) Obama as a Polllie lies, + other whaco words
Ferny #505
I’ve seen nothing to indicate Rev Wright is a fool. As I say, he is a very intelligent guy. I know that, to you, that makes him an ‘elitist’
Ron: That is false Ferny , I’ve never implied Wright is an ‘elitist’. He’s too smart
The entire Team Obama now thinks he’ a fool. His Uni degrees do not exclude him from being a fool. There is no degree at Uni 4 wisdom or for being a non fool
Do you have any degrees Ron?
Still on the horse Jen?
No horse anywhere here Finns.
Just intense disappointment that the debate can sink so low. This is about who should run the western world, and we have to waste time and energy on such rubbish. Like I said earlier, we get the politicians we deserve.
And I’m starting to think we just might.
Again.
I’m surprised you don’t feel as disheartened as I do at that prospect.
But ron my words are expensive, ‘I’m special’ but free for you…
Good morning all, says Ron @ 394
‘seems the more that generally white Americans see Obama as obviously ‘black’ the less they support him which may indicate a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’
And I thought there’s something not quite wright about that …hmm Got it.
Just add one of your previous comments…‘thinkskin’…it’s easy…So the last bit reads:
a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’, ‘thinkskin’. More better. Or Houston we have a problem?
Over to you Major Ron.
520
Ron, where did I say Jesus was a Democrat? This is what you do Ron – take people’s words, give them a meaning created in your mind, and then beat us endlessly with the meaning you’ve concocted.
But since you asked – Jesus was a very radical character who chalenged the prevailing politics and religious orthodoxy of his day. he certainly was not part of the establishment, which is where the church tends to be today.
And on Wright, he’s achieved a great deal for the kinds of people you claim to care about (being a true Labor man an’ all). Again, what have you done with your life Ron that you can stand in judgment on him?
Jen,
Surely the proposed leader of the western World (where does that leave us) needs to be of good character and honest.
Obama has said he sat listening to this Wright dude for twenty years and did not hear the message being communicated in all these various tapes. What the Rev is saying is that he is the same character as before and he hasn’t changed a bit. Who to believe.
Further, it is now becoming apparent that Obama has tried to use Wright and his contacts in Chicago to advance his political career from the get go. Perhaps Wright is rebelling against Obama’s blatant politicisation of his church and religion.
Obama’s problem is that the paint is being stripped from the pillar of newness and change which many of the Obamists were searching for. What is left is just another tawdry politician who will say and do anything to be elected.
O
Grinch- the problem I have is that I don’t have a problem with Wright’s criticism of the US.
I actually agree with it. And so I suspect do many who are charged with being Anti- American ( meaning anti- Bush and his cronies.)
That does not mean I support militant extremism against the West. It just means I think we have got it wrong to date with our blatant arrogance, religious superiority, over consumerism and parochialism.
So I agree with Wright. And I reckon deep down , and having read your posts since pre-Novemebr last year, so do you.
for jen with love
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=LDL02th72u4
#527 – The problem is not Wright, the problem is Obama. Wright is dimkun, Obama is a fake.
Finns.
Obama is a politician , who is open to the idea of critically assessing his flawed country. As are all of we who wanted to get rid of Howard because we found his narrow thinking dangerous. So bring him on, because the others (clinton and McCain) are more of the same we’ve already had. Anbd I’m not happy about where that has got us.
Jen,
I don’t think it is smart to diss your own country like the Rev does. Some of things he says are blatant bull and plenty of the sites posted have systematically demolished his presentation. I also have far more respect for the US than many of our blogging comrades. Remember they are the greatset source of good on this planet and we’d all be speaking Japanese if not for them.
The difference is that I perceived Obama as a fraud from the outset. Once you pare back the rhetoric, there is not a lot there. As the campaign progresses I just see it all unravelling and another humiliating defeat for the Democrats in November if he becomes the candidate.
I have been watching the alleged “religious” discussion tonight. To me it just proves the adage that if you don’t believe in something, you’ll believe in anything.
As a Labor supporter, I support Labor values. What I write today is not much different to what I wrote last year.
You only have to log onto the Huff to see that the mood has changed since Pennsylvania. It’s not just Wright or Clinton dirty tactics or even the economy. Barack has not only plateaued, he seems flat (is that the same as a plateau?) and uncertain. One day he’s John Kennedy the next John Kerry. Let’s hope he doesn’t become Teddy. All presidential promise.
Obama the inevitable:
“The superdelegates, who can vote for the candidate of their choice without taking voter preferences into account, in fact have no other choice but to nominate Obama. They will have to suppress the growing fear that the Democrats cannot win the election against Republican candidate John McCain in November if Obama is their candidate. Still, as long as Obama can hold onto his slight lead in the number of pledged delegates, he will be the inevitable candidate. In fact, there is now almost a national political obligation to nominate Obama. A vote by superdelegates against Obama would set off shock waves within American society, with incalculable consequences. Young people would be outraged, intellectuals would be bitter and violence could erupt in predominantly black urban neighborhoods around the country.
An apparent rejection of her black rival would also do more to harm Hillary Clinton than help her campaign. A candidacy against the background of angry youth or even burning barricades would be of little value.”
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,550351,00.html
Ferny , Jen , Pancho and Codger
ALL of you have made cheap insinuations about my first post but not quite brave enough to say more into racist terrority. Its typical Obama ticker
‘seems the more that generally white Americans see Obama as obviously ‘black’ the less they support him which may indicate a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’
The operative word is the first one “seems”. I’m not sure but it looks that way.
According to my anaylysis (this is patented Kirri the aprrentice psephological) and no site in the US has suggested this, so my analysis may have an offsetting factor …but
Obama seems to get less ‘white’ votes’ when he gets more ‘black’ votes but seems to get more ‘white’ votes when there are less ‘black’ votes
This suggests Obama’s vote may be inflated in strong ‘red’ States like South & North Caroline and Virginia when a ‘moderate’ Repug type like McCain is the opponent , meaning Obama’s current poor electability may be worse
FG,
Hyperbolic wankery!
“Young people would be outraged, intellectuals would be bitter and violence could erupt in predominantly black urban neighborhoods around the country”.
When haven’t young people been outraged?
Intellectuals bitter means what?
violence in black neighbourhoods doesn’t occur now?
The SDs will do their duty and select whomever they think will win in November.
The Obmabots have the same problem with the Pastor as Obama does.
Having 100% committed yourselves also after the Philly speech to defending the Pastor (like Obama did) you’re in retreat as is Obama still ‘defending the Pastor less and less strongly but cann’t quite ditch him completely as you like Obama would have the whole credibilty worn “wright” off
As GG and FINNS and I have said , the problem is with Obama not Wright.
Actually Wright so far in two area has come out of this better than Obama !!
Wright has shown ‘ticker’ in stcking to his convictions and has been honest with his whaco idea. Obama has been neither
Been thinking about the consequences of the SDs picking Hillary.
Imagine if they do that and then McCain chooses a black VP.
Game set and match McCain, I’d have thought.
Much as Wright’s latest outburst is embarrassing for Obama, it doesn’t give the SDs the overwhelming reason they would need to take the huge risk of overturning the winner on popular vote and elected delegates.
The nomination is still Obama’s to lose, and it will take more than him having a couple of loony friends, I suspect.
“Surely the proposed leader of the western World (where does that leave us) needs to be of good character and honest.’
Since when & GG your evidence is?
Ron @ 534 Black & White sunshine, or colourful if you like , pal…what you make of it is beyond me or my caring…
There are three comments that I noticed while reviewing the traffic this evening. Jen at 504, Ferney Grover at 505, and again at 553 in his reference to Gabor Steingart’s article. Jen correctly addresses what is happening – the noise in a slow news week amplified out of proportion and reflecting very badly on the amplifiers. Ferney comment is getting to the core, the real substance of the last couple of days. But from that perspective – Ferney’s article reference at 553 gets into the reality that he will be the inevitable candidate (which I think has been the case for a while now). But take into account – out he will be ther inevitable candidate has achived something special – he has demonstrated to a very broad audience that he is Christian, not Muslem, and has positioned himself as someone independent of the Preacher. In my mind this is a good thing.
Oh, and by the way, Obama has picked up another superdelegate – Iowa Congressman Bruce Braley bring the DCW count difference down to 19.
codger,
satire. There is no such thing as the leader of the western world.
GG at 541
But, but, … what about President Lindberg?
Here’s a ripper blog from a Jack Smith who posted at the Age.
SNIP: GG, please don’t cut and paste lengthy extracts like this. Use a link instead – PB
GG at 543
Give me a break – that dude has been posting the same thing everywhere for over a months now. You would think he could actually add some variation – but seems his mind is not so creative.
Catrina,
I hadn’t seen it before and it cracked me up. I hope he posts here soon.
542
A black President is just too unbelievable to be satirical. The fifth element is Boron.
GG at 545
I just your Boron connection!
GG at 545
I just *love* your Boron connection!
And Clinton responds with another super of here own – DNC William George (PA).
Bringing the numbers back to advantage 20 Clinton.
Obama’s troubles with Wright are an object lesson in why politics and religion make a toxic combination. The gross religiosity of American society is so irrational as to be truly sickening. This country is on the way out, there is no doubt in my mind.
blindoptimist at 549
Which is why there is this idea often referred to as ‘the separation of church and state’.
GG @ 541 now that is news…maybe ron…
Is there such a thing as a slow-motion implosion?
I just took a look over on Hillary’s blog site. Over the past 24 hours she has published 5 posts. The numbers of comments against these posts are 24, 29, 150, 79, and 383 on the latest and if you do the arithmetic – the total number of comments is 665. Over on the Obama blog we have 13 posts. The number of comments per posts are 633, 355, 380, 1136, 660, 474, 951, 504, 1369, 1232, 460, 578, and the latest 74. All up that’s 8732 comments for the kid.
Hillary Clinton: 7%
Barack Obama: 93%
I’m sorry – but did someone here mention the popular vote?
Is this a re-run from last night?
At 540 I mentioned that Obama had gained another super, then at 548 I notified you all about the Clinton response – and just as I’m about to go to bed – the kid announced another – Indiana Congressman Baron Hill endorsed Barack Obama for President today, citing his strength of character and ability to change the tone of Washington.
So – we are back in the teens again!
Don’t you just love a good race?
Oh no!
I’m sorry Finns, I’m sorry GG, and Ron – your just going to have to deal with reality sooner or later. Rep. Lois Capps, who represents a district on California’s central coast, is the third member of Congress to announce an endorsement of Senator Obama Wednesday, the day after he responded sharply to one of the deepest crises of his campaign, a confrontational and, he said, “appalling” set of remarks by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The campaign is using the flurry of endorsements to shore up political support and demonstrate the frontrunner’s continuing strength.
That’s one more for the kid.
Clinton: 260
Obama: 242
Difference: 18
549 blindoptimist, says:
“This country is on the way out, there is no doubt in my mind.”
So if we compare the US to the decline of the Roman Empire, would Bush be Caligula? Or perchance his horse that he promoted to the Senate?
Greetings from Linz, Austria, one and all.
What a pile of shit Obama’s egotistical campaign has landed the Democratic Party in. He is totally unelectable now, as everyone who can spell “Jeremiad” knows, and as the polls are starting to show (only starting, mind) but the superdelegates are too terrified of being called racists to do what they are supposed to do and exercise independent judgement about who would make the better nominee. If they did their job Clinton would be nominated (or perhaps Gore would be drafted). But since they’re too scared of the r-word to do their job, they will allow the disaster to unfold. If there has been a luckier man in US politics than McCain I don’t know who it is.
Obama is sinking like a stone.
Mark 3 plus is coming. let talk about issues, what issues.
Mornin’ Bludgers,
Fox HQ, Delaware, USA, May 1.
“After an exhaustive series of preliminary negotiations, Fox News executives have just announced that they have obtained an exclusive interview with The Judeo-Chrisian God. Himself.
Fair & Balanced broadcasterer, Bill O’Reilly, will team with Karl Rove for the live-to-air scoop this Sunday. An undertaking is anticipated, with regard to the three remaining presidential candidates, as to whose side God is actually on.
Fox “comfort crew” have thoughtfully installed extra pins (pointy ends up) in the studio so that attendant angels can dance with abandon when their “Big Guy” makes with the celestial smackdown repartee which is expected to be a highlight of this timely interview. American Voters have been demanding clarification on this important issue as this unusally vituperative presidential campaign enters the crucial phase ahead of the NC and IA Primaries.
“This Manichean madness must end soon, for the good of all Americans”, a beaming Mr. Rove added.”
Tues.April 29: Have Check; Will Travel.
Requiring only the bare essentials of cockroach capitalism, TV, SUV and economic stimulus package the Restless Consumer is ready to ride again.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AqB204wLtBhEaTjvwEfVq6sl6ysC
Wed April 30:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AkqJlS3ih6CRFgAikfyoIshT_b4F
Time for Obi’s handlers to have a look at the fruit-loop preacher men that Johnny Bomb-Bomb has been palling around with over the last 22 years. In the interest of balance, they should start with black god-bothering whackos.
This game can be played by two.
May 1 Thurs:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Let’s talk about the issue of what happens if Clinton or McCain win the POTUS, and the US continues on it’s path of self-destruction, taking many others with it. Threatening to nuke Iran,, playing the race vote, maintain the staus quo with the ownership of the political process by the mega-corporations, keep Israel and Palestine bombing civilians in tit-for-tat never ending violence, repress the development of clean energies in favour of maintaining dependancy on oil,etc etc.
while obama cannot magically fix these probbems he is willing to look at new aproaches and is not embedded in the old political process.
Not to mention the fact that be definition having a black president witha name which includes Hussein is an immediate sign to the middle east that the US is not naturally hostile to its citizens, amd therefore may result in less recruiting of anti-american muslims.
And so on- change vs status quo, or return to the past (does anyone really want Bill back in the Whitehouse, and they are a double act).
But let’s talk about issues- like lapel pins and outspoken clerics.
Fks sake.
Morning PB’ers!
Yesterday I mentioned ‘Slip Slidin’ Away’. Today “If You Leave Me Now” (appropriately by Chicago), best describes the polls sad retreat from Obama. From a low of 5.2 yesterday, RCP now has Obama’s national average lead over Hillary at only 2% – a statistical dead heat. It was, as I’ver said earlier, 10.5% before PA.
NC (Obama by 10.3) and Indiana (Clinton by 2.2) remain unchanged since yesterday.
In a little bit of good news for Obama, Hillary’s delegate lead has gone from 21 yesterday to 20 today, according to RCP.
Finally, the Hillary Deathwatch has dropped Hillary’s chances from 12.9 yesterday to 12.6 today, largely due to Obama’s dumping of Wright and the less than favourable reception given to Hillary’s gas tax plan. The Deathwatch concludes:
“The superdelegate scene is something of a wash today. Obama snags Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and Indiana Rep. Baron Hill, while Clinton picks up Pennsylvania AFL-CIO president Bill George, narrowing Clinton’s lead to 21 supers. Some people think more are on the way. The trickle of supers is telling, though: It shows that the worst Wright week ever has not yet been enough to drive superdelegates away from Obama.
In the polls, Indiana hasn’t shed its tossup status. A new Howey-Gauge survey shows the two candidates statistically tied, with Obama at 47 percent and Clinton at 45 percent. But the last few Indiana polls show Clinton leading. The fate of the race hangs in the balance! Indiana is all-powerful! Except, not really. If, like us, you believe that superdelegates are going to be very squeamish about voting against the pledged delegate count, then Indiana merely determines whether Clinton drops out in May or June.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2190281/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Well Australia, you’ve hit the Huffington Post:
Official Tearfully Admits he Sniffed Female Lawmaker’s Seat
‘Australia’s Sunday News reports on an Australian government official who is facing calls to resign after admitting that he sniffed a female lawmaker’s chair seat after she had stood up. The same lawmaker was recently in trouble for snapping the bra of another female lawmaker.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/official-tearfully-admits_n_99509.html
Yes, Adam, Obi is copping MSM static aplenty but SDs are seeing beyond the the fog of flak, dear boy. Every day the pool of uncommitted SDs shrinks and The Kid just keeps on nudging ahead. He’s got the staying power of a Jack Strocchi. As a trained psephologist, perhaps you might care to enlighten we misguided Bludger contrarians with a mathmatical appraisal of SD and “popular vote” counts in this exciting contest. Independent variables included would of course be entirely of your own choosing. Hope you’te having a bonzer time. Is Frau Merkel still the red got favourite?
“Obama trails Clinton by just 21 superdelegates, 243-264, cutting her lead in half in less than two months. This week, he picked up seven delegates to her four.
The superdelegate chase is a key piece of good news for Obama in what has been a bad week. The Illinois senator is coming off a big loss in Pennsylvania, steeped in controversy surrounding his outspoken former pastor while Clinton fares better against Republican likely nominee John McCain in the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll.
But the problems aren’t stopping his ability to win support from superdelegates who are likely to cast the deciding votes in the Democratic race.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/obama-closing-in-on-clint_n_99501.html
It’s great looking back on a snapshot of a page:
‘Obama will lose because his Philly and Wright Mk II speeches aren’t the same!’
‘I haven’t been to uni so I hate Obama (and the non-elitists will agree)!’
‘he’s vapid!’
‘he’s plateuaed!’ (tip: check the SD endorsements over the past week)
‘we’d be speaking Japanese if it was for people like Wright!’ (tip: check his record of military service)
And I think my favourite, coming from the voices giving him no chance of being elected nominee:
‘he’s totally unelectable now!’
I guess races get a bit desparate and odd towards the end, even among removed supporters who have just picked the wrong horse (and/or have given themselves such a close view of the trees that they can’s see the mixed metaphor). And – for some perspective – after 6 weeks of blowtorching, the most successful team in a generation of Democratic politics is nearing the frontrunner in populist polls. After almost 6 months of contests and 18 months of campaigning.
Some running SD news here. I dunno if this one has been posted:
‘ Rep. Baron Hill (IN) to endorse Obama tonight at his Bloomington rally…
SCORE OF THE DAY SO FAR:
Obama 3
Clinton 2
Notice a trend? All three super delegates for Obama are elected officials. Both for Clinton are un-elected.”
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/30/10429/1759/169/506307
Unelectable I tell ya.
Ferny at 560 and Pancho at 563, excellent summaries.
McCain’s jokers have actually made me laugh a second time – first being the ‘they’re gonna raise your taxes and have the audacity to hope ya don’t mind’ gag. But another message in there too, which really should contextualise a few things for desperate and fighting Dems. There’s been a dearth of realism around here of late:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9964.html
Check out Hillary and the coffee machine to some nice Larry David music: http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/30/183123/963/872/506621
The Finnigans @ 557
“Obama is sinking like a stone.”
Come on Finns! Obama is ahead on PDs, the popular vote and has substantially and continually reduced Clinton lead in SDs!
I find it highly amusing that the Clinton supporters on PB mirror Clinton exactly in her denial of factual reality. I find it even more amusing that such well informed and intelligent bloggers such as The Finns post such nonsense.
“Pass the duchy from the RIGHT HAND side” (with apologies to Bob Marley)
Better late than never, Ari gets attitude.
“The last ten days have been among the most shameful in the history of American journalism.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/shameful-days-why-wont-th_b_99496.html
Another parallel with the demographics of Oz 2007, with positive ongoing implications for the Dems.:
‘Trends in the opinions of America’s youngest voters are often a barometer of shifting political winds. And that appears to be the case in 2008. The current generation of young voters, who came of age during the George W. Bush years, is leading the way in giving the Democrats a wide advantage in party identification, just as the previous generation of young people who grew up in the Reagan years — Generation X — fueled the Republican surge of the mid-1990’s.
In surveys conducted between October 2007 and March 2008, 58% of voters under age 30 identified or leaned toward the Democratic Party, compared with 33% who identified or leaned toward the GOP.’
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/youth-vote-shifts-dramati_n_99437.html
This might have already been posted- if not, then looks like it’s game, set, match.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/30/senator-says-obama-has-do_n_99386.html
And a hiccup for Hillary here with some madcap supporters strongarming black voters. Boardmembers of the organisation in question include Bill Clinton staffers and a former Chief of Staff. Count another point or five to Obama in NC if this latest Rovian muck blows up:
‘First, a quick recap: As we covered yesterday, N.C. residents have reported receiving peculiar automated calls from someone claiming to be “Lamont Williams.” The caller says that a “voter registration packet” is coming in the mail, and the recipient can sign it and mail it back to be registered to vote. No other information is provided.
The call is deceptive because the deadline has already passed for mail-in registrations for North Carolina’s May 6 primary. Also, many who have received the calls — like Kevin Farmer in Durham, who made a tape of the call that is available here — are already registered. The call’s suggestion that they’re not registered has caused widespread confusion and drawn hundreds of complaints, including many from African-American voters who received the calls.
…”The reports from other states are very disturbing, especially the pattern of mass confusion among targeted voters on the eve of a state’s primary,” Democracy North Carolina’s Bob Hall tells Facing South. “These are highly skilled political operatives — something doesn’t add up. Maybe it’s all well-intended and explainable. At this moment, our first priority is to stop the robo-calls and prevent the chaos and potential disenfranchisement caused by this group sending 276,000 packets of registration forms into North Carolina a few days before a heated primary election. We need their immediate cooperation.”‘
http://southernstudies.org/facingsouth/2008/04/facing-south-exclusive-dc-nonprofit.asp
Jen – he’s already back in the clubhouse.
And the first polling is in. Maybe Wright ain’t the silver bullet. Who woulda guessed? Ok, next one fellas (better get a few more in before Indiana):
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24390690/
DK summary:
‘43 percent of respondents are concerned about the 71-year-old John McCain’s close ties to George Bush.
36 percent have concerns about Clinton’s political opportunism, and 27 percent are concerned about Bill Clinton being back in the White House.
34 percent have problems with Obama’s “bitter” remarks and 32 percent give a damn about Jeremiah Wright.
Of course, Wright is about the only thing Republicans have on Obama beyond the “liberal elitist” thing they run against any Democrat by rote.’
Pancho, those 36 and 34 percent are probably mostly made up of Republicans. and a few hardcore Hillary supporters.
What a time to have to take the PC to the doctor with ‘won’t boot up disease’ (NTLDR is missing press CTL ALT DEL for a lovely time looping to infinity). Anyway, the dear Mrs Kirribilli has kindly loaned me her ancient home latptop, which makes a carrier pigeon seem fast in comparison! (Haven’t things gotten faster in 5 years! But it was a company freebee, so mustn’t grumble!)
So, after a stella campaign that toppled the assumed inheritor of the nomination, the kid hits a rough patch. As he approaches the finish line he’s slowed, got some more lead in his saddle bags, but is still enough in front to get home.
Meanwhile, Clinton is sinking in the ‘honesty and intergrity’ polls, and behind both HBO and Mc on ’shares our values’!
Funny, the same press that gave you “Saddam the word’s biggest threat” is now giving you “Obama not patriotic”. Gosh, it MUST be true!!!! (That’s four, count them, exclamation marks, because anything that true from the MSM needs all the help it can get.)
Make no mistake, the Republicans still see Obama in their sights, and wish they didn’t. When Obama strides over this pile of rubbish, as he will, it will leave them with even less garbage to chuck in November.
So, it the immortal words of the Imbecile Decider: Bring it on.
I caught some of Wright’s Press club act, and he’s a great act, if not a touch bi-polar. It’s more than plain to see that he is not a candidate in this race, but it’s good to have someone to break the monotony of Obama just walking this thing home. And he’s funny too! Loved the line about Cheney, it cracked me up.
Ok, off to the chip doctor.
Catch youse all later.
PS ‘unelectable’ My goodness, what an insipid descriptor! After ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ that’s a HUGE comedown.
Better late than never, Ari gets attitude on a major story that broke on April 20.
“The last ten days have been among the most shameful in the history of American journalism.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/shameful-days-why-wont-th_b_99496.html
——————-
There are thousands of personal cyber-tragedies that occur daily on Ozzie ‘TardBand, Kirri. Yours has been but one of them. May you achieve with alacrity an optimal outcome going forward at you nearest, friendly customer service centre.
Adam says
“He is totally unelectable now, as everyone who can spell “Jeremiad” knows,…”
I’m guessing that very few Americans can spell Jeremiad, and I’m positive even fewer know what it means.
Obi only needs 80 of the remaining 291 SDs. The Clinton political carcass is starting to rot and stink up the joint.
“He is totally unelectable now, as everyone who can spell “Jeremiad” knows,…”
Maybe he’s right, I certainly had to look it up and I’m certain Obama is going to kick both Hill and Bomb bomb right outa there.
Adam 556
Sounded like a sour acknowledgement that Obama has kicked the Clinton Machine’s ass to me.
Adam is just bitter because months ago, he was so sure Hillary would walk it in.
OBAMA the religous terrorist’s front man
Philly’s ” a more complete union’ speech now exposed by Wright as a sham
Obama the ‘racial unifyer , promising US racial harmony can not even convince his own Pastor of this message
Obama quote yesterday :
“more importantly, I don’t think he showed much concern for what we are trying to do in this campaign and what we’re trying to do for the American people and with the American people”
AND YET the contradiction of Obama’s Philly speech: he said the Pastor was his Mentor . inspiratation , the Pastor’s sermons were his racial harmony base
Hey all
I’ve noticed that people have mentioned Hillary’s “dissatisfaction” numbers around the joint (54% gets bandied about a bit).
Is this an actual worry for her, or is more akin to Shanahan’s push of the PPM, and economic management as indicators?
r/Ron, we get it. We get what you’re trying to say. We just don’t agree with it. Repeating yourself over and over isn’t going to magically change our minds.
You do know that don’t you?
Noocat at 581 and HarryH at 580
You have to give Andrew credit – after all, how often do you get a candidate with such a great ticker – or as Paul Gipson puts it – a candidate “that has testicular fortitude” – LOL. Gipson then went on to slam “Gucci-wearing, latte-drinking, self-centered, egotistical people that have damaged our lifestyle” – ouch, wonder who he’s talking about.
Maybe its time to fire up the espresso machine!
RE 583
just seeing as Adams talking ‘electability’ and all that
“On April 20, The New York Times published an expose revealing the Pentagon’s secret program using retired military analysts to “generate favorable news coverage of the administration’s wartime performance.” Since that time, the media have been disappointingly silent on the story and their roles in the Pentagon’s program.”
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/30/perino-pentagon-puppets/
If this story gets traction after Perino’s “So!?” moment: “Of course The Pentagon gives its appointees in the media information when they ask us for it. Get real! That’s the way things work with us running the show.”, it will hurt McBombster and Duchess Deathwatch more than it will hurt Obi.
His hands are cleanest here. Time he hit back with a lethal combination or two. He has to show Americans that he’s got the killer instinct. They need to know stuff like that. Next Tuesday is as much about symbolism and narrative, as it is about delegate and vote counts. Should he slide over the line in Indiana, Obi will have moxa too mighty for Duchess Deathwatch’s handlers to spin against.
To “save The Party” a solid majority of Democratic Pooh-bahs, less a face-saving “loyal to the last few”, would unite behind Obama forming their first great Coalescense of the Willing of the 21st C. If If Brutusina bungs on a turn then too bad. She’d be viewed as a sore loser and quickly slide from Party and national prominence.
Or, she could get in there like a trouper and root for the kid, mask her disappointment and tirelessly campaign for the election of a Democratic President that wasn’t her.
How she loses this campaign will define her career after Novenber.
Religious terrorist now Ron? I know you reactionaries like your black men docile and deferential but terrorist is a bit strong don’t you think?
Yawn. Tell us something we don’t already know. More lies from Billary.
“Andy Albers, a former vice president of Magnequench, said he received a phone call from Clinton’s campaign to go over key details of Clinton’s Valparaiso event before it happened on April 12.
“I told them all the truth, but it didn’t go anywhere,” Albers told ABC News. “Evan Bayh and Hillary Clinton are living in some false reality here, making all these false accusations.” ”
Clinton Decries China’s Acquisition of Indiana Company — Ignoring Her Husband’s Role in the Sale
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4757257&page=1
As the Yorkshireman said: “There’s nought so queer as folk”
So let’s unpack this “Supers are too afraid to dump the black guy” trope, from of all places, Herr Doktor.
With 18 Senators to Hillary’s 13, and virtually neck and neck in the House, are we to believe that a bunch of pussy pollies would rather sink their own boat in November because they don’t won’t to be accused of being “R”, as in racists!
Stick to polls kid, they’re just numbers! Pollies on the other hand, are people, and they are reknowned for being a bit, how should we put it, not short on self-interest? They are moving away from Clinton relentlessy becasue they know she cannot beat McCain except on slim margins in a few Dem states, and offers bugger-all threat to him elsewhere. She holds shakey leads on far too many states to be a good bet with her huge negatives, and anyone who’s been watching the last few months has NOT been inspired by either her faux courage or her personal charisma (not to mention integrity!).
Think about it, conjure up a list of seasoned pollies, and imagine them all hiding behind their political correctness to shoot themselves in the head! I mean, talk about raising the notion of political correctness to mass suicide.
If ever there was a more ludicrous claim, then hey, I’m waiting for it, because that one is a howler. I can only assume the schnapps chaser after too many lagers has kind of gone to his head! LOL
yep, nothing so ‘unelectable’ as someone who keeps winning the votes and persuading the Supers he’s got it.
dogb – Ron has to keep repeating the same point in case ‘new people’ look at this page. Said so yesterday. And ‘you guys’ can’t answer him. Or even find the question at the moment.
Anyway, don’t you know that people aren’t voting for a guy bringing a different approach to a failed foreign policy and promising to engage with disaffected sectors of the community? The moment two speeches addressing different points were different, his game was over!
What petty garbage.
The question the Obamabots can not answer , but McCain’s TV ads will ask ??
How can Wright ’s basic racial message that Obama praised at Philly
(and per the Philly speech was for 20 years Obama’s cultural /racial belief base)
now NOT be the same racial harmony message a mere 4 weeks later ?
Wright has not changed his basic racial message or thrust at all ,
but Obama now has ditched it 4 weeks after at Philly praising Wright’s basic message, and unbelievably after 20 years believing it
Why doesn’t Obama like Michigan Democrats? What is he afraid of?
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002713327&cpage=2
Ron, bring it in close – Obama ain’t running on ‘Wright’s basic message’. As the polling I have linked above shows, this (while hot and current) is seen as less important than Hillary’s opportunism (read: lies about things like Bosnia). Each of them has their weaknesses, but this aint the killer you so desperately want it to be.
On a substantive note, can you explain this:
‘…After her Pennsylvania win last week, the RNC did not send a single e-mail focused on Clinton through Monday. At the same time, the committee blasted out 18 that attacked Obama.’?
Only the rules GG. Hillary won’t be rewarded for breaking them. Obama would be happy with an even split, as he has repeatedly said, even though he now has a handy polling lead in the state.
While Obama is working out what he believes in, Hillary hitting hard and connecting with the voters.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ie_n5DX3aFY
And for balance, here’s the response:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/gasprices1
GG at 593, 596
Feeling grumpy today?
Don’t despair – Hillary picked up another super yesterday last night and has pushed out the DCW lead from 18 to 19 – go girl, you can do it! I know, you factor in the Pelosi club its really around about 10, but whatever, she is in front on that metric and its a legitimate number!
Catrina, that ain’t nearly full stretch grump.
Also, check out this free ride the media have been giving Obama. No wonder he’s leading. Just wait till everyone actually focusses on him…
http://mediamatters.org/items/200804300007?f=h_top
Let’s ask ourselves this:
Swiftchurch?
Or this:
It’s no longer a subprime problem, analysts at Barclays investment bank reckon around $US800 billion of debt linked to subprime and higher quality so-called Alt-A mortgages could become problematic this year, putting further pressure on housing prices and mortgage values.
In fact US house prices have now fallen by more over the past year than the US stockmarket: the Standard & Poor’s 500, the major index is off around 8% since its peak late last year. US economists say house prices are now falling faster than anyone had previously thought possible and are acting like equity prices in the speed of the decline.
…If you’re one in a hundred households (yep, that’s the number!) that got a foreclosure notice in the last three months (yep, 650,000 of them!), then I guess you’d be rivetted to Faux News and just dying to see the Rev Wright do a jiggaboo act and some passing fair impersonations of a couple of white honky Presidents?
So what if your house is worth only 20% what it was when you bought it, you can’t sell it anyway. No buyers. So what if you can’t keep paying the mortgage on something that will be falling down before it ever goes anywhere near the price it was when the bank bought it. Who cares? Just don’t change the channel, ‘coz that Rev Wright might be back to do his follow up act where he plays the jets and crashes into Obama’s presidential campaign!
Man, that dude is off his meds, but he’s so funny man!
Pancho,
Clinton- I’ll provide a short term fix to a short term problem. Fist full of cash.
Obama I have a plan that over the course of the business cycle combined with mandating best practice environmental legislation that does not exist through a Congress I can’t control and means you have to replace your car at $20,000 plus, I’ll then rebate you with an inadequate bribe and pretend that my new way of doing things will make the oil companies quiver. I have a dream!
Is that the choice?
It was in Australia last election. And when it is outlined starkly by Obama as her plan being worth $35 over the season, it doesn’t seem so crash hot anymore. Note also that Obama’s ad makes specific mention of a $1000 middle class tax cut. You may be right – her byte may sell better, but I’m not so sure.
Also, I’m sure you got this as an old cynic, but did you like the soaring West-Wingesque music at the back of Obama’s ad?
Pancho,
Who is the “old cynic” when they blithely point to contrived rules to disenfranchise substantial portions of the population simply because their favourite would be disadvantaged by an out break of Democracy.
A convention that does not seat Michigan and Florida will produce a sham candidate and be only one more reason for voters to support McCain.
What is Obama afraid of?
As I say, only the rules. The convention will seat delegates for both states, but the DNC won’t be bullied into playing a pro-Hillary game. If she wants it settled now, she can have 50/50 splits. If she wants to wait till she has lost, they may just be seated as they are.
Not sure if you guys know this but a new Insider Advantage poll has come out in NC.
And the result is:
Clinton 44
Obama 42
Undecided 14
First time Hillary’s led in NC for a long time…
Got a link SL?
Sorry:
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx
So Obama’s a terrorist now? Ha! This just gets more insane.
Ron – it suddenly became clear to me! You’re Pauline Hanson ‘aint ya!! It explains everything – including the chip on your shoulder.
But as you mentioned it, Wright’s message was not racist – it was, in fact, a denunciation of racism. That was it’s point. All of which is irrelevant. He’s not the candidate.
So, there ya go Pauline..er..Ron. Your little rant got you noticed – which is its purpose, after all.
RCP Update.
There’s been some movement on RCP since this morning (our time). The national average has Obama’s lead over Hillary stretching from this morning’s low of 2% to 3% thanks largely to a NYTimes/CBS News poll showing Obama with an 8% lead.
On the other side, Hilary’s SD lead has increased from this morning’s 20 to 21 now.
A bit more reality for the kiddies:
With the overall economy growing at a mere 0.6 percent annual rate for the second quarter in a row, consumer spending advanced by only 1 percent, the government estimated. That was down sharply from the 2.9 percent gain for all of 2007 and the 3.1 percent gain for 2006. It was the weakest showing since 2001, the last time the economy was ensnared in a recession.
…and everyone should sing along together: consumer spending IS the American economy!
Oh well, not quite all of it, but over 70% of it. A drop of 2/3 in just two years in the BIGGEST segment of your economy is BIG news. (OK, Rev Wright’s Kennedy impersonation is pretty big too!).
The much touted US consumer is contracting, not spending. So are they saving then? Not that you’d notice. They aren’t spending because they cannot borrow any more! So, saddled with a pile of debt, no savings, and their house values sinking a lot faster than Venice (that’s Italy by the way), they are not happy campers.
Especially the ones that are now camping out on the streets for an extra long holiday from creature comforts.
Welcome to America.
But help is on the way (just like after Katrina!), and George is signing cheques as quickly as he can. Your $600 will buy a lot of spam.
Enjoy.
SL – that is interesting. I’d still suggest there is no way she can win in NC, given how static demographic trends have been all through the season. I’d like to see another poll or two as well. A good point your linked article makes is that Obama may need to divert some resources from Indiana. Here is some other analysis of that poll:
‘The difference is in the black vote. Firstly, Obama leads that vote “only” 64-20, with 15% undecided, a vote he has won 83-15 over the course of the primary season. Secondly, the poll shows only 25% of the turnout being black, which would be a very low result. The general rule of thumb is that black turnout equals about 150% of a state’s African-American population, which in North Carolina’s case would work out to 33%.
…They also have a history, not unlike ARG, of publishing weird results in the run-up to the primaries (Clinton +33 in Tennessee, Clinton +8 and Edwards +7 over Obama in Iowa) and then fixing those results with more reasonable looking results just before the primary actually takes place.’
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/clinton-2-in-north-carolina.html
Make that a 2/3 drop in one year.
Same difference, quicker rate of decline.
SL,
Wow!
Naturally, you would want to see something else to confirm the numbers, but not a good reult for Obama.
The “Wrong Way” Wright debacle is having an impact!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353459,00.html
Pancho
#591
“The moment two speeches addressing different points were different, his game was over! What petty garbage”.
Ron:
National Polls of McCain vs Hillary and vs Obama. Hillary wins easily
State Polls of 3 key States of McCain vs Hillary and vs Obama. Hillary wins easily
So when the stats do not suit , shoot the messenger explaining why. None of you dare mention these Polls will you because the US voters are saying NO to Obama
Your comments were therefore diversionary. They were also falsely based.
At Philly Obama said Wright was the basis of his racial belief values
Yesterday on TV Obama says Wrights racial message is wrong, he doesn’t know !
Pancho you are peddling false speechs. both came out of Obama’s own mouth !
“I’m sick of jokes about John McCain’s age! In fact, the only thing older than a joke about John McCain’s age – is John McCain.” (Colbert)
For anyone interestedd, there is click on link at my 613 above to the Hillary/O’Reilly interview.
Well worth a looksee
Just to focus on the real world again for a moment (sorry kiddies, you can go back to sticking your pastor pin into the Obama doll’s eyes, this is for the adults): what will the US look like in November, at least economically speaking?
Well, no prizes if you say in recession, and that’s either technically true, or effectively true. Because it will be true in one or both senses.
What’s held up the US economy this last quarter was a small increase in exports, but also a large build up of inventory. And as everyone knows, after you are stocked up, and nobody orders, you don’t stock up any more. (Discretionary buying died in the proverbial posterior. The small increase was for health and food and stuff you kind of MUST have).
So the next quarter will sag considerably, and maybe Bush’s pocket money will push up consumer spending a teeny bit after that, but essentially, they are headed into negative growth country and it’s bigger than the Fed or the prinitng presses.
In that climate, I’m so interested to hear John McCain speak about the conservative’s record of financial management and regulation, and how the North American peso is steadily bringing them to a tourist lead recovery. (New slogan: Cheap holidays in the USA and we throw in a house if you stay for a whole month!)
Pass the popcorn…
O’Reilly does Clinton?
Where’s the bucket?
You’ll enjoy this one KR.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
NC RCP average now has Obama’s lead in freefall shrinking a further 3 points to 7.3 down from 10.3 yesterday.
The most recent polls for Indiana from PPP and SurveyUSA have Clinton’s lead at 8 and 9 points respectively.
Where’s my razor blade?
I have no idea whether McCain sang like a canary or not, but he was a damn fool if he didn’t. It is normal procedure to change radio frequencies, codes, call signs, target designations, flight paths, and every other significant detail known to a downed pilot/crew, so there is no point in being heroic about it.
Anyway, McCain’s war exploits are a minor detail compared to what is being revealed about him and the likely nature of his presidency should he get the top gig.
For starters it appear he plans to reignite the Cold War against both Russia and China, kick the Russians out of the G8 and deny China a seat, and create a new international body of democracies that will actively work against those countries that aren’t.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134317
According to Robert McFarlane, Ronnie Raygun’s National Security Advisor, a McCain presidency will be run by the neocons fruitcakes just like GWB’s. ….My ears perked up when I heard this assessment because it confirms what I’ve been hearing elsewhere: while Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft, and other realist elders are consulted by McCain, his heart is with the younger neocons, the “beavers,” in the words of one McCain supporter, who draft the speeches and get the grunt work done. As Fareed Zakaria points out in the Washington Post today, the result is disastrous recommendations such as threatening to expel Russia from the G-8. In the aftermath of the Iraq debacle, the U.S. needs allies, not enemies. But the neocons don’t see it that way.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacob-heilbrunn/mccain-camp-is-neocon-red_b_99046.html
So will Americans want another neocon captive in the WH? One that may actually be more dangerous than George because he has a taste for blood.
If whatever the American equivalent of the ‘drover’s dog’ is can’t beat this senile old git then American voters are far more stupid than I’m prepared to believe, even after the surprise of 2004.
Either of the Dem contenders should have no problem once they start applying the blowtorch to Macca’s nether regions. Especially, given his admission to not understanding economics.
FG,
Music to bleed out with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNjLUPqckWY
619
Greensborough Growler
Ouch! LOL
Did you happen to see Supreme Inquisitor, er I mean Supreme Court Judge Scalia do his “well torture isn’t punishment” rap?
He’s one sick puppy, but I guess we all knew that, huh? (Florida, chads etc)
GG
#613 Hillary on Labor based Policys on the neocon opinioned Fox News. “ticker’
This GG and FINNS is what all Obama supporters will not answer…Labor policy
Thanks for that link of Hillary vs Bill O’Reilly on Fox News. I watched whilst the Obamabots are thinking of how they are going to “spin’ their refusal to mention key National & State Polls showing the voters soundly prefer Hllary over Obama
The highest profile US neocon aggressively questioned Hillary (the only Democrat candidate left with fair dinkum Labor values). For some , she may not be the most likeable compared to Obama but the choice is not about likeability its , its about practicle equity based solutions (Hillary) not dreamy impractical philosophys/words (Obama). Sorry Diogenes she is dislikeable. The Labor based policys & ticker she has which Obama in both areas does not.
Hillary demolished O’Reilly’s neocon based questions
Taxes. O’Reilly you are going to socialism increase my taxes cause I’m (& B.C.) are rich and give it to the middle & lower class. Yes says Hillary , its equity
Oil Companys. You are going to socialism put a super tax on them & redistribute to lower taxed voters. Yes says Hillary, its for equity & to change US energy use
Health Insurance Companys. why should I fund the uninsured poor. Hillary says insurance must be for all, its fairness and the model will be what all Congress men get.The Insurance company’s premiums rates are to be subject 2 regulation.
And Obama’s plan says Hillary, the health uninsured & underinsured will still be under & uninsured & the premiums will still increase 2 guarantee the status quo
Hillary with ‘ticker’ offers real change. Obamabots offer ‘content free’ words
The truth is had Gore been in place of Hillary saying the same words , the non Obamabot Obama supporters here would be supporting Gore and not Obama
#605 – Swing Lowe – [Not sure if you guys know this but a new Insider Advantage poll has come out in NC. And the result is: Clinton 44, Obama 42, Undecided 14]
SL – tq for the link. This morning, When i post #557. I saw a reference in one of the blog but no link. So i was just hinting. Now your link has confirmed it. Sensational, as I have expected.
I also saw a report that Obama and his wife are going to have a blitz over the weekend on different media to once again counter Pastorgate. So Philly Mark 3 is coming. Me worry? never. Pastorgate is now like the quicksand for Obama, the more he kicks trying to get out, the deeper he sinks.
FG, i saw the first part of Hillary interview with O’Reiley this arvo. She looks relax and presidential. Whereas Obama was looking annoyed, haggard and hassled. “Where’s my razor blade?” indeed.
What exactly is r/Ron going to talk about once the nerve impulses finally make their way through Hill’s skull and she realises she’s already dead?
Are we going to have to start hearing about how much more electable McCain is?
It’s interesting that the polls can change so quickly in the US. Australian polling changes tend to be much more gradual. Are they more fickle in the US? And the issues presented are so trivial. They wouldn’t get a run here. For such a dramatic change to happen in Oz the candidate (in the words of the old adage), would have to be found in bed with a dead boy or a live animal.
Of course, polls that change quickly can do so in either direction.
And then there’s the maths. Still rock solid for an Obama win.
#620 FG – [NC RCP average now has Obama’s lead in freefall shrinking a further 3 points to 7.3 down from 10.3 yesterday]. More freefall, now is, within MOE:
Nat’l RCP Average 45.7 – 42.7 Obama +3.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
630
Finns, see my 560 & 609 on these figures
Sorry #627 was for GG
Now I feel rejected Finns.
Had another look at the delegates and decided that Hillary needs the razorblade far more than I do. It’s gift-wrapped and in the mail.
dogb at 268, Ron and the finns have steadfastly refused to answer the Obama v McCain question. Obviously they cant even consider this as Hillary HAS to win.
I assume they will back McCain in the end
Nonetheless, it’s critical that The Kid reclaim the narrative. Any guesses as to how? Release some SD announcements? Some words of support from some big names – Kennedy, Oprah, etc (who have all gone quiet). Thoughts?
The stalking parrot is back!
Perhaps Barack should try enjoying underdog status again. Did him no harm last year. Let’s hope there are no bicycle seats hidden in the shed.
634 Andrew
So I figure, sad really.
#635 FG – Ok, this one is for u. The “Kid” should get down on his knees and call our Dear Leader. let our DL shows him how to affect “change”. You make sure that you get into power first before anything else. Notice the “changes” that the DL have brought in since assuming office, eg: yesterday was Gay Rights, today’s SMH headline: “Robin Hood Budget”.
* You dont go around scaring people like the Pastorgate and Ayersgate;
* you dont go around insulting people like Bittergate;
* you dont go around looking down your country like Michelegate;
* you dont go around big noting yourself as some sort of messiah with “We are the change that America is seeking”;
* you dont go around trying to solve the Race problem with Philly Mark 1 and then stuffed it up completely with Philly Mark 2;
You do quietly reassuring the “working families”, and “economic conservative” to the rich. That’s how you do it. You are right he is a KID, an L-Plate ala Latham.
Some minor movement at Cbet.
OBAMA, Barack 2.00
MCCAIN, John 2.70
CLINTON, Hillary 4.75
HRC is still available at $6 at Sportingbet.
It’s astounding how well Obi’s weathered the Brimstone Wright Blitzkrieg so far.
Brilliant strategy there Finns. Do you think Obama would be where he is now if he played the game like that? Of course not. But you don’t want him anywhere near the candidacy anyway.
Obama has to win the primary before he can compete for President. Playing small target would not have worked for him going up against the Clintons who are the master of lie, cheat and steal your way to the top. The only way he could have won against Clinton is by doing exactly what he did. Tapping into the disillusionment of the Democratic base.
Ferny #608
The evidence is Wright is a whaco and a moron with a Uni degree to fluff up his extemist racial & anti American views , religious terrorism of the mainstream beliefs such as they are. Your problem is here publicly you supported this fool because he was THE Mentor of your ‘elitist’ based Candidate who is one of yous. The irony annd the ‘ecstasy’
FINNS #630. What Ferny & other Obamabots do is to quote Polls to appear they
they have a POTUS defining psephological base when they are nonsense for that
purpose. All Ferny’s Polls confirm is a Democrat preference for Nominee , but 90% + will vote for either Candidate in Nov. anyway ! Furthermore if those Democrat faithful aren’t going to vote , more won’t vote for Obama anyway based on Polls the Obamabots ALSO quote quote here.!
All the POTUS deciding Polls both Nationally and for the 3 key States favour Hillary so they don’t quote them. All the Polls showing the % of which Candidate the Democrat faithful won’t vote for they don’t quote them. Oamabotic fantasy
SWING LOWE
Thanks for the Hillary good news NC poll. You didn’t comment I notice and don’t comment to the 3 Amigos who lack TLC but like Hillary don’t need it , ‘ticker’ is enough.
The Obamabots immediately still attacked the NC Poll. My sense FINS & GG is its a snapshot I guess with the Pastor background there. All polls seem to underestimate the Pro Obama ‘black’ vote & they’ll probably still turn out despite Wright to give Obama a sound & not close NC win
Well, you certainly shouldn’t do this http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353536,00.html
Cille at 643
But Zirkle primary objective is to educate and inform – that’s got to be plus. And he said he is not a member of the Nazi party. How could he loose?
#642 – Ronnie – have I turned from from a Dolfinn into a Shark Fin? [FINS & GG]
No FINNS
you are the ‘real deal’ of reality here as is GG , amongst Obamabotic fairyland
Ron at 646
Does that make me a fairy princess?
#647 – Katrina – the curse of New Orleans.
Ferny
Just keep looking at the maths. Obama can’t lose from here. He’s going to fall over the line and regroup. Even Adam has come to terms with that. If Hillary was 40 delegates closer, I think the SDs would overturn the “people’s choice”, but they won’t overturn a 130 lead.
GG
I have a retraction and apology to make. A while ago I said Bill turned down an offer from Sudan to hand over OBL, which you said was a right-wing attack-lie on Bill. As it turns out, you were correct, although the facts are hotly disputed. A Sudanese citizen contacted the US and offered to hand over OBL. The US cannot conduct diplomacy through a private individual and tried every avenue with the Sudanese Government to get OBL without success. A right-wing author has written a book saying that a Sudanese general claims otherwise but there is no “smoking gun”. And Bill seems to have given “counter-terrorism a much higher priority than any other President”.
The Finnigans at 648
Keep talking like that and I go all wobbly!
Catrina @ 644 I hope that’s an irony button that’s missing
642 Pauline
“The evidence is Wright is a whaco and a moron with a Uni degree to fluff up his extemist racial & anti American views , religious terrorism of the mainstream beliefs”
You’re such a sponge of the right wing propogandists, Ron. Just soak it up and spew it out. Brain in neutral as usual. Blinded by your inferiority complex and your bigotry.
As for publicly supporting Wright – unlike you, I analysed what he said and found the MSM frenzy to be wanting. I still do. It had nothing to do with Obama. Still doesn’t.
What does this mean? “…your ‘elitist’ based Candidate who is one of yous (sic).” Are you saying that all Obama supporters are ‘elitists’? Can you not see, Ron, that this the bigotry I speak of? How dare you damn a substantial section of a community becaue their views differ from yours. How do you define ‘elitist’? All your rants reveal is your own inferiority complex. I imagine that life hasn’t treated you well and you so deeply resent those who have struggled to better themselves – particularly those who have worked hard and sacrificed lots to gain a uni education. So you come here and let off steam because this is the only place in your life where someone will listen to you. That’s just sad Ron.
As for the polls I quote, they’re not ‘Ferny’s’ – they’re RCP averages – and they’re not looking good for Obama. Yet I report them anyway. No point in hiding from the obvious. I call it as it is – and it’s grim right now.
One more thing – you will receive more civilised responses if you stop lacing your posts with bigoted invective. It’s not necessary.
#650 – [I go all wobbly!] – dont fall over.
Wouldn’t touch Obama with a ten foot pole? Watch the SDs squeal.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/us/politics/01clinton.html?_r=1&ref=politics&pagewanted=print
Hear Hear Ferny, 2 to Ferny – 0 to Ron
For those rightfully in awe at the chutzpah ofAhmed Chalabi, the fact that he’s still walking defies all the rules of Hardball politics. However one views his m.o., The Big A is one hell of an Operator in the game of World Championship Schmoozing. Uncle Ahmed played the PNAC-people off a break, as if they were a bunch of side-walk schmendricks!
The Iraq Fiasco is going to be right up there among the “Why I voted for Obama” responses in exit polls come November.
http://www.trueblueliberal.com/2008/04/30/chalabi-rand-and-the-iraq-war/
655
Enemy Combatant
Good ole’ Acky, he’s Bush’s Rasputin, spinning and weaving his unctious spell on tje administration with his proxy Neocons and the Zionist party of Washington.
Did you know he once escaped Jordan after the ‘collapse’ of his Petra Bank in the boot of a Mercedes? He’s still, as far as I know, under a considerable penal sentence in that country. (The bank funds all got ‘lent’ to his family and cronies, surprise, surprise).
There’s no flies on Acky. He got waltzed into the Pentagon with a secret handsign from some of his Zioncon mates, where he got access to the vital secret that they’d cracked the Iranian secret service codes.
Acky soon after makes a flight to Tehran and the codes mysteriously got changed! LOL
It was about that time that the CIA raided his Baghdad digs and threatened him with a bit of ‘not punishment’! And what a bummer, they cut of his US pocket money (CIA spent many millions on his exile group)
Yep, he’s a smooth operator, and there are 4,000 dead and tens of thousands of maimed US troops to testify to what a ‘heck of guy’ old Acky is!
Oh. for those who may not know (is there anyone left??), it was virtually the sole doing of Chalabi that all that stuff that Colin Powell told the UN was a complete heap of crap.
They should have just ‘not punished’ Chalabi. He could have told them in under 5 minutes it was a load of tripe. He, afterall, sold it to them.
Yes we can can, with a little help from friends the Obamacans but look out for the Limbacans!
“We have four new primary polls today. A Howey-Guage poll shows Indiana to be a statistical tie, different from yesterday’s SurveyUSA poll putting Clinton ahead by 9%. The difference in these polls is often how hard the pollster pushes the undecideds to make a choice. Also noteworthy is the fact Democrats are split evenly 47% to 47% so three other groups may ultimately determine the winner here and possibly the nominee. First, independents are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, and in previous states they have gone strongly for Obama. Second, there what are called “Obamacans,” Republicans deeply disturbed by what the party of Eisenhower, Goldwater, and Reagan has become and think a big loss in November may help the party get back to its fundamental principles. Finally, we have the Limbacans, Republicans who support McCain and at the incessant urging of Rush Limbaugh are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because they perceive her to be the weaker candidate in November. This is an interesting group because Democrats are debating endlessly about which of their candidates is stronger, but Republicans have no doubt: Obama is the one they fear. They don’t want the election to become a contest between young and old (like 1960).”
electoral-vote.com
Yeah, Kiri, he’s got a load of dead Iraqis on his conscience, if it’s not yet vestigal. ‘Tis his “Trade-Craft”, not his morality which astouds me. Chalabi is a Kaiser amongst con-men.
As your attorney, Kirri, I advise you to not play cards with this man!
658
Enemy Combatant
I have to say he’s fascinated me for quite a while. The moot point ultimately raises its ugly head: Did Ahmed play the Neocons or did the Neocons play Ahmed? Or, alternatively, was it the symbiosis of equals.
It’s a tape worm eating itself, a conundrum, an impossible but fascinating contortion of nature, and yet…there it is.
Some interesting stats on early voting in NC. The above mentioned poll with Hillary up samples 25% black voters. But early voting indicates that percentage will be way higher:
‘a total of 175,238 early ballots cast for the May 6 Democratic primary, those numbers have changed slightly, with the Black percentage rising to 38.5% and the White dropping to 58.1%. Most pollsters are estimating a minority turnout of 33%, but it remains to be seen whether election day turnout matches early voter demographics. The minority percentage has actually been increasing slightly as early voting has progressed in NC.’
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/14835/7007/1021/506480
The whole article is worth a look – it is interesting. There are also big numbers for white women (about 1/3). No mention of age – there are a few big college towns in NC.
This is also a huge number of early votes – the same article quotes historical voting numbers ‘544,922 in 2000 and 691,866 in 1992. (No primary was held in 2004, we had a caucus).’ And about a million expected this year.
And some analysis of the first post Wright 2 poll, about candidate vulnerabilities, with numbers and implications for their negatives. And guess what???:
‘”Obama/bitter” and “Obama/values” rank just fifth and sixth on the list, respectively. Instead, the issue that concerns the voters the most is “Clinton/flip-flops”. That is followed by two McCain issues — his closeness with George W. Bush and his own flip-flops (to its credit, MSNBC did report the Bush result on air) — and then another Clinton (”Clinton/honesty”) before we get to the first two Obama issues. Meanwhile, the two issues that strike me as unambiguously being cheap shots — “McCain/age” and “Obama/patriotism” — are of very little concern to voters.’
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/im-concerned.html
Finns, GG and Ron, I do so admire your ‘Audacity of Hope’ in maintaining an alternate minority view of the US Democratic Party primaries, here at PB. *hugs* for the strength of your convictions and opinions. I will admit to being a coward, I can only cope with the pile-on in very small widely spaced doses.
.
But anyway, FWIW, if you liked Hillary’s Fox interview, you might like the follow-up one with the Indianapolis Star as well, which followed it at: http://anglachelg.blogspot.com
(you will need to click the ‘On Demand’ button for the vid-clip to play at:
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/29/19464/6850
.
629 Ferny Grover Says: “It’s interesting that the polls can change so quickly in the US”.
.
The simplest reason for this Ferny, is the large differences in methodology used between different polling orgs, particularly the models and assumptions used to base estimates of turn-out. Have to also look at the validity of the cross-tabs. eg – the latest NC poll with Hillary leading IMHO is way off-base, because they have underestimated A-A turnout, and only had 5 individuals as their sample to estimate the Hispanic vote. I suspect Obama will win by double-digits, if you use SUSA’s methodology on those demographics. But to reverse the Obama supporters rhetoric from Pennsylvania, I think the benchmark should be set at 20% for Obama, or its a loss, even if he comes in at 19.21358% *chuckle*
.
Back to US polls though, the average of all polls that RCP uses, is not very valid, because the different pollsters use different methodology. Its comparing apples with oranges. National polls in the US are even more meaningless, because national polling hides very large State-based spikes and dips.
.
eg. Californians, are a fairly laid-back, easy-going cool bunch, they would *shrug* off anything to do with Wright, Ayers etc. Alfred E Neumann, What Me Worry? Pass the joint dude. But in chunks of the mid-west and south? It goes over like the Hindenberg. One of the GOP NC & Mississippi ads for local downticket races even mentions something like “That might be groovy in California, but not for us”. Different states, different countries, different cultures. So much for Obama, being the “Great Uniter” LOL
.
Anyway, because the population of states like California, would largely outweigh the smaller conservative state pockets, national polls tend to wash out any local dips and spikes. Some regions it may have made him more popular, others much less popular, so they often balance out on a national level. But the GE, is won by individual states which are not proportional to national population. Demographics and economies aren’t uniform across the country either. Rich urban college-educated white-collar populations aren’t feeling the economic recession, anywhere near as much as the folk in the mid-west, rust-belt and south are.
.
One of the better ones I’ve found, is to compare like with like, eg compare SUSA polls with other SUSA polls, or pollster with pollster, if you can be sure they use the same methodology and assumptions each time. Corrente blog had some recent posts doing “apples with apples” poll comparisons.
.
As for Hillary’s gas-tax holiday thing. Who blamed Rudd when he was Opposition Leader last year caving in on the NT Intervention? Or on having to promise some tax-cuts, with a caveat, following Howard’s election promise of the same? Clinton is in the same position as Rudd was, she is a US Senator in Opposition, she will have to vote on the gas-tax holiday bill that McCain is introducing into Congress under a Bush/Cheney Executive.
.
There is no doubt it will pass, with/without her Senate vote, because the people will demand it, same as Aussies wanted their tax-cuts, baby-bonuses, rebates for X, Y and Z etc. So, just like Rudd, she has promised it will go ahead, BUT with a caveat on the oil companies to fund it. And she will fight on the Senate floor for it too, as she has so often done in her career to date. I’m shocked Obama has said he will vote “No”, it must be one of the very few times he’s taken a stand on anything. He often abstains from voting on anything even remotely controversial. The GOP dont have to swift-boat him on Wright or Ayers, they don’t even need to get nasty at all, they can just highlight his complete lack of any resume or record. But they’ll do the nasty stuff, just for the sheer fun of it.
.
Let the poor man eat his waffle in peace. I feel sorry for him, and maybe he will get some sympathy votes in the remaining primaries?
.
anyway, have a good one bludgers, cya next time I pop in!
661 Pancho
If the Obama negatives are only 5th and 6th on the list, then what has caused his plummet from grace in the polls?
Bit of mutual back-scratching for sure, Kirri, between Ahmed and The WHIGs (White House Iraq Group) who were all card-carrying PNAC-people anyway. I rememeber when they were all warbling Ahmed’s praises, as the Go-To Guy for all things I-raqi.
When Obi gets in, plenty of this doo-doo’s gonna hit the drive shaft. The Dems would have The House, The Senate and the Presidency. That’s a start. Enough for getting some Senate Inquiries underway. However, SCOTUS with Scalia at the helm could prove problematical down the track.
663 Ferny
Those “how important is an issue” polls are a crock of sh*t. They are the ultimate measure of the Bradley effect. Who in their right mind would honestly admit they see Macca as too old or admit they are not open-minded about Wright and bitter? (Well I can think of one brave soul.)
But of course anyone is happy to say they don’t like lying and flip-flopping. While I don’t agree with Ron, at least he is being honest, which is more than the people taking that survey were.
“Finns, GG and Ron, I do so admire your ‘Audacity of Hope’ in maintaining an alternate minority view of the US Democratic Party primaries, here at PB. *hugs* for the strength of your convictions and opinions.”
Similar to The Blue Max in that it acknowledges extreme bravery under “combat conditions”, The Blue Rain is awarded to conservative bloggers who display extraordinary courage and tenacity under fire from Obama-Lovin’ Leftoids.
Congratulations, boys. This must be quite an honour for you.
Ferny
#652
You may have partly misundertood how US POTUS elections operate. McCain & Hillary are already known at POTUS level scrutiny but Obama was not. When the scrutiny has been put on Obama he has crumbled with ‘gaffe’ disease. Then with 7ups Friscogate (with ‘bitter’ one of the 7 slurs) demonstrating not only is he a ‘liberal’ but an elitist’ (holding snoby ‘superiority’ views over all other community groups)
But worse , it has been found his political close associates are a declared terrorist in Bill Sayers (in whose home Obama went to launch his political career) and a whaco moron Pastor who sprouts divisive racial and appalling anti American views.
The 3 Amigos criticised Obama for continuing to attend this nuty Pastor crazy sermons for 20 years , privately diagreeing but remaing silent & still returning
You invested your (now partly lost) political credibilty , as did Obama on his Philly speech and you & other Obamabots supported Wright. Why , because Obama at Philly said Wright was his, inspiration , his family Uncle , his friend , his Marriage Minister , his kids baptizer and outrageous of all his Mentor and the base of his racial belief system . ie ‘a more complete union’ message had it genisis in Wrights teachings & is that message is tainted and in tatters
NOW that this fool Pastor has ‘outed’ himself on TV for the whaco he is, and Obama has sort of ‘disowned’ him (100% will be in mark vii) so your prior public unqualified defence of Wright (to be overgenerous) is shown as unobjectively based & blind foolishness for Obama
That is entirely your fault , not mine. What has upset you & Obamabots is you’ve been proven so wrong , and so unqualifiably wrong about Wright, & Obama as part of him. And so wrong publicly from the TV footage of Obama & Wrights own mouths, that your normal excuses don’t cut of ‘they didn’t say that’ or ‘the words are not in context’.
As to ‘elitists’ the public humiliation of being proven wrong must be insufferable. Obama will be feeling this now , hence FINNS remarks of him being
grumpy , testy and ‘bitter’. An ‘elitist’-view based Obamabot feeling similarly.
An ‘elitist’ is a state of mind , irrespective of their poor or otherwise upbringing
& could be irrelevant of Parents or friends or voting habits or occupation but ususally originates from academia or wealth, and the Victor Chang’s , Dick Smith’s & Gov Gen William Dean are their antithisis whilst John Kerr & Turnbull are
You’ve blatantly ignored my previous blogs. Obama supporters here are either ‘reality’ tell it frankly as it is , core Obama supporters Intellectually based , Obambots and finally ‘elitist’-view based Obamabots. Four main groups amongst you 26 lot. Sometimes I’m remiss by addressing you all as one. But conciseness helps with 3 amigos vs 26
As to Polls , my #625 demonstrated the total irrelevancy of the Polls of the ‘faithful’ you quote vs the Polls you refuse to quote. As you guys won’t fess up to the Pastor as an issue , you’ve failed to realise a collision of the Pastor to affected other psephological factors causing the current adverse Obama Polls & so there is actual natural room for some Obama bounce back subject to the 2 candidates & other short term political actions
Ron
This might not be the most politic thing to say but I was under the impression Dick Smith and Victor Chang were/are complete knobs. I’m not saying they did a lot of great things but their interpersonal skills are severely sub-optimal. I could be wrong but…
The Finns your constant use of the suffix gate is so irritating. Do you think that adding gate to everything makes it important? Well how about Delusiongate- a candidate being deluded that they will win despite all the numbers being against them??
Your analysis makes Dennis Shanahan seem balanced. Well done
Diogenes ,
unfortunately ther is a difference between a knob and ‘elitist’ and Chang may have been the former but I can see , not the latter
Ron
Agree neither were elitist. Fred Hollows was evidently the same.
#669 – what about a Parrotgate then?
#662 – Rain – like our gal, we are tough, fighter, and persistent. And we dont need the Kumbaya bit like Obama and the Obamabots here.
Maybe we could have a whip ’round to see if we can get Ron a 50 Year supply of full-stops. Some terrific deals going down on E-Bay at the present time, I hear. In his last missive (#667), Ron has a 20% strike-rate for periods at the end of each of his ten paragraphs. He just keeps running out of them all the time, that’s all. Sorta thing that could happen to anyone, any old time. No worries,….BUT,
With a 50 Year Supply of full-stops, Ron, you could tap out them li’l’ black dots like there were no tomorrows:)
Even the semi-literate would thank you for it, mate.
Your psephological and sociological obsevations, nevertheless Ron, remain at the cutting edge of global analysis. Even better when you don’t dress them in punctuational Op-Shop chic!
Betfair Odds again:
Hillary has moved into $1.23 in Indiana. Obama is now paying $4.
Obama is stead at $1.08 in NC.
In the overall stakes of Democratic Candidate, Clinton has moved in from $6 to $4. (Or a one in three chance of her being the nominee).
Clinton SD switches to Obama.
“A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to “heal the rift in our party” and unite behind the Illinois senator.
Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge others to support Sen. Obama in Tuesday’s primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race.
He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120962832953558997.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
Mr Andrew’s defection takes Clinton’s SD lead to 19. Obama has netted 8 SD’s this week to Hillary’s 3.
Ferny
#673
My blog is so long with so many opinions stated , there is plenty for you to intellectually disagree with. Please do
As to being potentially banned , your #652 should be used by you as a model to stick within and you’ll have obviously no problem and William in any event has
always been fair even to a couple of blogers who were quite insulting to him
There are substantive political issues raised in the at the min. first 60% and the last par. re current Obama polling
If anybody thinks the Pastor will now go away quietly. Have another think.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/30/AR2008043003251_pf.html
Let me remind you again what the Pastor said yesterday at NCP:
REVEREND WRIGHT: And I said to Barack Obama, last year, “If you get elected, November the 5th, I’m coming after you, because you’ll be representing a government whose policies grind under people.” All right? It’s about policy, not the American people.]
He thinks he got Obama in his pocket. An impotent POTUS. It must have sent shiver down the spine of of the non Black Americans.
FINNS
#678
“He thinks he got Obama in his pocket.”
Absolutely , which is why Wright said on TV 29/4/08 where he effectively accused Obama of lying :
“We both know that if Senator Obama did not say what he said, he would never get elected.” Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls — Huffington, whoever’s doing the polls.”
BEFORE Obama delivered his Philly speech it looks llike Obama gave him ‘wink and a nod’ to say I’m going to condemn som eof your comments but not say which and then ‘praise’ you. And Obama did both. What has upset Wright is the media have still concentrated on the former (divisive words) and forgotten the ‘praise’ of Wright Obama had said
Finns, you have an advantage over me, Obamabots will *tolerate* you guys,
I’d be symbolically burned at the stake!
.
on the Kumbaya theme -
that was my very first *snort* and coffee-spill over my brand new carpets, (G-D that Man *grrr*) couple months ago, watching Obama go, umm..uhhh..uhh.. umm.. something about, umm..uhh..uhh.. sitting down and talking through the issues with all sides, uhh..uhh..uhh..cos he can see all sides, you know, now listen…uhh.. uhh..listen , uhh..uhh.. would appoint Republicans in his Cabinet and.. and I had these visions of the US congress being run like a Focus Group, or new age workshop.
.
and *oooops*… my first coffee stain on my brand new carpets resulted.
.
So Ferny, 11 SDs have declard this week, that’s eleven less in the pool from which the candidates can draw and and extra 8 votes from those will be required by HRC to stem this week’s bleed so far.
Still, Obi’s got to put up a good show in IA. He could put HRC away early with even the tiniest of wins there. B.S. Fairman’s odds from betfair indicate that it’s a long shot win, but Obi going down by more than 5 points in IA will make it more difficult for him to close the deal.
Perception-wise.
The prospect of another month of bloody Dem attrition looms disasterously unless the nominee is annointed after next Tuesday. Enough is enough. Time for “all for one and one for all”. Divided, they will almost certainly fall.
Rain
#658
“I’d be symbolically burned at the stake!”
Rain , you are in no danger from the Obamabots whose strongest weapon is a ‘dreamy’ message which has a blank page. Our Candidate is the only one with ‘ticker’ to make hard decisions. They will love your contributions
#680 – Rain – [Obamabots will *tolerate* you guys] – are u kidding me. They tried to run us out of town and hunt us down like a wolf pack. It is only because of the strength of our intellectual argument that created the firewall.
Hey Rain, a song for u from Jose, with every drop of Rain, i can hear you call.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=raEvjT422sk
Ron,
My 652 troubled me and is, in fact, not a model I’d like to stick within. Its tone was unnecessarily personal and for that I apologise.
I’d suggest, however, that you abandon the blanket attacks on those you see as ‘elitist’. Your tone diminishes you and is unnecessary. I really don’t know anyone’s circumstances here but I’m sure many are just battlers like you – whether they have degrees or not, or enjoy lattes or not, or support Obama or not. Certainly, the majority here are committed to the principles of social democracy, some a little more to the right and others a little more to the left, but most would see ourselves as left of centre.
Some of us see in Obama a chance to break from the past, which has seen democracy degenerate into the politics of self interest and of vested interests. The desire for a return to principled leadership doesn’t make us ‘elitist’ or foolish or dreamers. The reasons are well considered, and the desire for change is growing in western democracies. Others on here take a different view finding comfort in Hillary and the known quantity of the Clinton brand.
The reasons we differ are the focus of our debates, but we really should take care when our leisurely discussions and political joustings become a reason for belittling each other.
Why EC ,
Where is that genorosity of spirit. This may cause me to write another ‘ditty’
#681
As to your whole blog #681 devoted to my english inadequacy , its similar to that dylixia and I’d have thought such comments would come from a Conservative and not an equity/disadvantaged thinking based Labor person
#674
“The Blue Rain is awarded to conservative bloggers who display extraordinary courage and tenacity under fire from Obama-Lovin’ Leftoids.”
Had you read my ‘universal healthcare blogs or go back and look at my detailed #625 blog today I’ve discussed on this site Labor based policys and NO ONE
from the Obama supporters ever has , so any Independent person looking at this site would know I support Labor policys nad would doubt your colleagues do
Ron, [Why EC , Where is that genorosity of spirit. This may cause me to write another ‘ditty’ ] – let me help
You got a lotta nerve
To say you are my friend
When I was down
You just stood there grinning
You got a lotta nerve
To say you got a helping hand to lend
You just want to be on
The side that’s winning
(B Dylan)
It’s good night from him and good night from me.
676
Ferny Grover
Another sad and deluded Super, Ferny. Too gutless to admit he actually wants to vote against the tinted candidate because he’d just die from embarrasment to be seen as a racist.
What will these spineless creatures not do to hide their real white supremicist affiliations? And what a tragic pyschological condition where they preference the weakest candidate out of fear of criticism, the horror to be actually caught out as the deep racists they so obviously are, deep down.
It’s right up there in severity as people who cross dress so they aren’t caught as being homophobes!
Tragic, Ferny, just tragic. They need help, at PCA! (Political Correctness Anonymous).
FG @ 676 CNN’s take
(CNN) — The Obama campaign announced Thursday that former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew — who was appointed to that post in 1999 by then-President Clinton — is withdrawing his endorsement of Hillary Clinton, and backing Barack Obama instead.
The campaign said Andrew would appear at a 10 a.m. press conference at its state headquarters in Indianapolis, then join campaign manager David Plouffe on a conference call with reporters.
“Many will ask, why now? Why, with several primaries still remaining, with Senator Clinton just winning Pennsylvania, with my friend Evan Bayh working hard to make sure Senator Clinton wins Indiana, why switch now? Why call for super delegates to come together now to constructively pick a president?” said Andrew in a letter released Thursday.
“The simple answer is that while the timing is hard for me personally, it is best for America. We simply cannot wait any longer, nor can we let this race fall any lower and still hope to win in November. June or July may be too late. The time to act is now.”
The Indiana superdelegate served as party chairman from 1999 through 2001. He had endorsed Hillary Clinton last year, on the day she officially announced her White House bid.
ouch
Codger and KR: Obama needs a couple more like Andrew to shift the momentum before Tuesday. It’s been a disastrous week for Obama, but a very good week in terms of SD’s to his cause.
Strange times
689
Ferny Grover
Nobody flies too close to the sun for long, and especially in politics, and especially in this environment. I think Brooks has it about right, there’s a demographic/education divide and unfortunately for the Dems they have two fairly close candidates of high calibre.
That’s a problem the Republicans could only dream of!
If Wright plays big on Faux News that probably means the Republican audience is getting a feed, but that Supers are still moving Obama’s way means that the real game has not yet begun. But you can bet they’re not obsessed with who’s watching Faux news.
It’s getting interesting.
Thnx Ron, I do enjoy some of the muzak jokes for Obama, some of which I’ve only found here. Like the Beatles ‘you’ve got to carry that weight’.
.
Talking of ‘Duelling Polls’ though, Bill, Big Dawg Bubba, has come out of his exile recently to stump for Hillary, and I saw a poll questioning whether voters thought he was hurting her campaign. Apparently, in that poll, his popularity has bounced back to around 65%, which was exactly where it was when he left office.
.
Like Chucky.. He’s Baacckk!
.
And Clinton voters, admitting in polls, to refuse to vote for Obama in November if he is the nominee has gone up again since Pennslyvania.
.
Obama may be the media darling, may even be the Party’s darling, but Hillary is the Voter’s Darling.
.
Check out Massachusetts polling, one branch of my partner’s family are from there. Massachusetts Senators Kennedy, Kerry and Deval Patrick (the mentor with the wonderful Hopey/Changey speeches and dream-time campaign rhetori style) All endorsed Obama early on, but those three are really disliked locally in their home state – they story is, they were sucked in by Deval Patrick’s style and awe inspiring campaign speeches, but he has done SFA, sits on his butt and snores, lets the Republican Opposition just run it, he’s just a puppet. Its only that there are no better Dem candidates, that are willing to run against them in that state.
.
Hillary won Mass strong, so much for those endorsements, huh? She also got several of the other Kennedy’s like Bobby Jnr, bit of a rift in the Kennedy clan?
.
but look at the polling trends of match-ups with McCain and Obama since Super-T. Traditionally its a safe small blue state – but, Obama puts it in play against McCain??? thats how much those Dem voters think of those particular super-delegate endorsements, and just how “loyal” they are to the Party dictating. Sure obama ‘expands the map’ into red states, (although after Wright – not so sure about that anymore, either) but he is also ‘expanding the map’ by threatening a few small safe blue states.
.
Then check Elizabeth Edwards (John Edwards wife) editorial in the Times or WaPo on the uselessness of endorsements. On Obama’s side, he gets most of the yuckiest DINOs (Democrats-In-Name-Only) or those Dems that only got their seats because there was nobody better to choose from. Gore lost his own home state in 2000, if he’d won his own home state, he would not have needed Florida to win that election. Take home message, from 30 years or more – Dont’ take US Dem voters for granted.
.
So there’s a number of chinks in Obama’s electability in November, and taking for granted the “loyalty” of Democrat voters in key states, is a dangerous risk for the DNC to take.
.
If the Super-Dels let Obama steal the nomination, they are just as gutless as he is, and they deserve to lose, and they know it, I’m not sure they care much anyway, its safer to whinge and whine from Opposition. The country is in such a mess, who wants to do the real work? Easier to sit all nice and comfy in Opposition and just spout naughty nasty words at the Republicans across the aisle.
.
Even after 2006, when they won their congressional majority (a massive national effort by a lot of grass-roots,from coast to coast) to take on Bush – and what did they do? Rolled over and played dead – “Impeachment is off the table”. WTF? Dean has disappointed a lot this year, he was very, very popular in 2004, was the early primary front-runner like Obama, they called themselves Deaniacs, with the infamous ‘Dean Scream’, to take back the WH and take out Bush – but, they don’t like him so much anymore. Another gutless wonder.
.
Hello Rain
thanks , a wealth of info from the US you bring from America & the Kennedy clan.
you say “The country is in such a mess, who wants to do the real work?”
I agree ,its not speechs that will change the US but fair dinkum practacle equity based policys and if you get a chance tomorrow look at my #625 blog today on Hillary vs that neocon Bill O’Reilly on Fox. Lots of REAL equity & social policys which Obama won’t tackle. She is prepared to take on the ‘establishment and O’Reilly kept saying thats ’socialist’ and she kept saying I don’t care what label you call it its fair to th average American and I’ll do it. enjoyed your post friend
A ditty , for the young at heart
A new tale from old must be told
for the blogosphere byte scribes,
to record , absorb & pass on
so the cyba pages are never blank,
of the enemy bloger once frustrated
but then satisfied by partner wise,
but no, the dreaded curse returned
no genorosity was now forever seen,
the ‘elitist’ hand , the virus full stops
and more , a 50 year supply to boot,
for dylixic to practice carry & use
and not a passing thought was given
of other past days and those bad nites,
when prioritys of inner satisfaction
reigned over those fullstop hordes,
and should a wise partner of hope
remind one of the passion choice,
as this was the deal , the nites offered
in lieu of grandeur of fullstops,
as the partner reminds the message
of Uncle Ron the simplicity of life,
the energy of blogs of fullstops
wasted against the passion on offer,
as partners guarantees are only now assured
with the partner & the uncle now good friends.
From The Page (Time)
This, together with the switch by Joe Andrew from Clinton to Obama (mentioned a couple of times above) brings the DCW difference to 16 advantage Clinton.
Clinton: 260
Obama: 244
Adding in the Pelosi club, Obama gains 5 and Clinton looses 1 bringing the total to 259/249 dropping the Clinton lead down to 10.
It is absolutely laughable how much Faux News is trying to talk Hillary Clinton up.
They are on a full court press trying to boost her up.
Embarrassing that this is the depths the Clinton Powerhouse have sunk to.
Their last bastion of support is the cretins at Fox News.
Superdelegate John Olsen backs Clinton pushing out the formal DNC Clinton advantage to 17 (11 when applying the Pelosi Club).
Hillary Clinton NY add-on delegates (Andrew Cuomo, Tom DiNapoli, Virginia Fields, Carmen Arroyo) change the DNW numbers and pushes Clinton’s lead back to 21. There are 3 supers and-on delegates from Illinois in the pipeline for Obama that will become official on the 5 May so this jump is somewhat temporary.
In the meantime – if you have some time to spare, the open letter from Joe Andrews is an interesting read. It’s about 6 pages in length but is worth reviewing all the same as it is a opportunity to look inside the the mind of a super delegate. What makes this even more interesting is the stimulus behind the switch: (a) Obama position on the petrol holiday; and (b) Obama’s handling of the Wright saga.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/joeandrew_obama.pdf
“The trickle of supers is telling, though: It shows that the worst Wright week ever has not yet been enough to drive superdelegates away from Obama.” (slate.)
and therein lies the rub.
The real question today is whether the same response to Wright will happen again – he hits Obama for a 6 , but it only lasts for a shorttime. And after a while it is possible that voters will be bored to tears with the pastorsauce crap. Or, converesely the Patriotism question will really take hold and Obama is gone – but then again one would hope that there are at least 2 neurones still firing in the US and it is seen for the beatup it is.
If not… back to the same old shit with Mc/Clinton.
Just read Joe Andrew’s letter.
Bang on.
Jen at 698
In my opinion the Wright use-by-date is up there on the calender beside the fridge. The US MSM will play on this like raw flesh because its just a ratings opportunity for the moment but every indication is that it is on the drama is on a downward trend. We are witnessing the fact that super delegates are not divorced from political realities, and in fact, in the case of Joe Andrews, the way in which Obama handled the Wright episode was one of the tripping factors in the defection. In other words – Obama has been put in a difficult place and the story emerging is that Obama is winning where it matters – super delegate commitments.
The Bus Man
He knew, he knew. and lied and lied and lied. Pre-Philly Mark 1, Philly Mark 1 and Philly Mark 2.
The truth ia now out. So much for the “New Style” politic. He is a fraud, a phoney, a packaged product, practicing the “Old Style” politic of “at all costs”. he threw his grandma under the bus, now he threw his uncle under the bus. The Pastor made what Obama is today. Then Obama sold his soul to the dirty world of chicago politic operatives and marketing, to satisfy his own naked ambition. [promoting black candidates with white voters] – the old Maxwell Smart trick of appealing to the “white men guilt”. It works everytime.
Rightfully, the Pastor feels that Obama has betrayed him and his congregation. Like I said, the problem is not the Pastor, because he stays true, the problem is Obama, he becomes phoney. I just wonder will he throw his wife under the bus as well if Michelegate becomes like the Pastorgate.
http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/05/01/obamawright_0501.html
The Finnigans at 701
When Obama gets the nomination, who are you backing?
Obama or McCain?
Whatever impact Wright’s comments have (and the empirical data so far seems to indicate that they may not be much of an issue), the saga is too late to save Hillary.
Will be interesting to see if it helps McCain against Obama.
Top of the mornin’ to you, Bludgers.
Thurs May 1: It’s only words, and words are all they have, to take your brain away-ay-ay-ay.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AgZTVAMLa7X8m7YJi7b5PbwXvTYC
“Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date. In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct; nor was any item of news, or any expression of opinion, which conflicted with the needs of the moment, ever allowed to remain on record. All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary.” —pg 36 1984.
#702 – Are you the parrot’s reincarnation?
I let you in for a secret. It wont matter because there will be a dream ticket of Hillary-Obama. Obama will take it because he is no more no less a politician, they cant resist POWER.
The Finnigans at 705
Just for the record, are you saying that Obama will take the VP position with Hillary on top?
The sinking ship:
28/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +10.3
29/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +7.3
30/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +3.0
01/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +1.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Finns -
Have you read Joe Andrew’s (SD) letter?- link on #697.
obama’s response.
he has just gone up further in my estimation as a man of principle and depth.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/obamas_press_conference_on_wri.html
Rain @ 691
‘If the Super-Dels let Obama steal the nomination’ Ah, so it’s the old ownership problem, eh?
Finns @ pick a # there is no bus just lots of conductors, try here polly…
Obama and Wright: On Being On, Off, and Under the Bus
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/carpenter/060
The zimmer’s running mate?
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/84139/
So Finns- are you seriously saying that if Obama gets the SD nominations that he has stolen them??
better rethink that one or you sound like Ron.
If either Hillary or Obama win the nomination it is because they rightfully won the SD votes but some of us are going to be unhappy, whatever the outcome.
Catrina at 702, you should know by know that trying to get a straight answer out of Finns (Obama v McCain) only leads to being called a parrot and a stalker. The answer is obviously McCain but the Finns is either too gutless to say so, or in so much denial about a Hillary victory that they cant ponder the question
Ah, Rain, back with another beauty!
I know! That’s why they are Senators, and elder statesmen of the party whose votes were so courted by Clinton (like Richardson’s) before they went the other way and became irrelevant and ‘disliked’. Please.
And since then, all he has done is reform the Party, take back Congress, and have the Democrats on the cusp of the Whitehouse. Of course he failed to dance to the Clinton tune and let them usurp the nomination process undemocratically, and has cut off the Republicanesque DNC machine at the knees. So I guess Clintonites who feel enraged at Obama ’stealing the nomination’ by getting more votes and delegates than their gal are disappointed. And, as you say, are having a bit of a dummy spit now, along the lines of – ‘Its not fair! I’m gonna vote for the other guy!’ In the immortal words of Walter Sobchek, ‘f@#$ing babies’.
704
Enemy Combatant
And top of the mornin’ to you too Ecky.
I hate to break the sad news, but Ecky’s been thumped, or rather gazumped, because the inimitable Growler posted that very cartoon just yesterday!
It’s a hard blow to take Ecky, and we all comiserate etc etc, but this time, GG has hit the button before you. Go to Gitmo, do not pass go-go girls on the way, and do not collect two hundred north american pesos!
And in SD endorsements, Obama 5-4 Clinton yesterday. And Clinton’s count of +4 overall included the 4 add ons for NY, which were always going to her. Worth keeping in mind that these will be squared with Illinois:
“Illinois will name it’s add-ons on Monday. Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, Illinois House Majority Leader Barbara Flynn Currie and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger are slated to fill the spots. All three have endorsed Obama.”
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
FG – I think you asked above that if Obama’s gaffes were rated 5 and 6 in that poll, how come he was down in the polls? Obviously they are playing a part, but also Clinton’s win in PA is as well and the narrative she has run from there. My point is that these all important ‘gates’ in the eyes (or should I say eye?) of the Clintonites is not that important, and will not be over a longer period. And, while Obama is down in the polls, after the hammering he has been copping, he is still ahead.
On the back of the illegal robocalling, the Clintons are now deeper in the muck. And you know what, it exactly mirrors what Clintonites are posting here! You ain’t on a save ‘Hillary from the nasty Barack with right wing smears’ lists are you fellas? Hahahaha. What desperate stuff. Go Democrat!:
‘Former journalist Sidney Blumenthal has been widely credited with coining the term “vast right-wing conspiracy” used by Hillary Clinton in 1998 to describe the alliance of conservative media, think tanks, and political operatives that sought to destroy the Clinton White House where he worked as a high-level aide. A decade later, and now acting as a senior campaign advisor to Senator Clinton, Blumenthal is exploiting that same right-wing network to attack and discredit Barack Obama. And he’s not hesitating to use the same sort of guilt-by-association tactics that have been the hallmark of the political right dating back to the McCarthy era.
Almost every day over the past six months, I have been the recipient of an email that attacks Obama’s character, political views, electability, and real or manufactured associations. The original source of many of these hit pieces are virulent and sometimes extreme right-wing websites, bloggers, and publications. But they aren’t being emailed out from some fringe right-wing group that somehow managed to get my email address. Instead, it is Sidney Blumenthal who, on a regular basis, methodically dispatches these email mudballs
…a staggering number of the anti-Obama attacks he circulates derive from highly-ideological and militant right-wing sources such as the misnamed Accuracy in Media (AIM), The Weekly Standard, City Journal, The American Conservative, and The National Review.’
from: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-dreier/sidney-blumenthal-uses-fo_b_99695.html.
713
Pancho
In all fairness Pancho, Deval Patrick brings even the reputation of politicians into disrepute! And that surely takes some doing.
But conflating Patrick with Obama is once again, the kind of pointless exercise that we’ve been having a lot of lately.
OK, they are both black and both are Democrats. The similarity ends about there. By that reckoning GW Bush and Bill Clinton are both southern Presidents.
Althought there is a good point about HRC winning Massachusetts, but both Dems are polling well ahead of McCain there, with HRC ahead 19% and Obama 11%. I would not call that making it a marginal Dem state, would you?
I think there’s a few personal or family issues mixed in with the facts, but hey, that’s politics.
KR, perhaps, but Kennedy and Kerry can’t be dismissed so lightly.
Pancho at 717. The article says it all. If the SDs needed any final reason to go for Obama, surely this is it
716
Pancho
It’s quite depressing seeing someone who you’ve admired as a writer for the left, suddenly turn into a Clinton Raptor!
Blumenthal’s stuff in Salon was always a treat, well written and cogently argued critiques of everything vile and stupid in the Bush administration.
Filthy lucre or perverse fealty? Who knows, but he’s probably burnt a lot of bridges with this one.
719
Pancho
Which is why I didn’t mention them. Too complex for a few paragraphs (even with punctuation, spelling and syntax! LOL), but Patrick is a complete tool of the first order.
There’s a real divide in the Dems, a working class high school educated group, and the liberal educated group. Clinton and Obama appeal to quite seperate demographics and therein lies the big problem for the party.
Obama has to connect with the lunch bucket brigade and Clinton has to convince the educated that she’s not just pandering to the lowest common denominator.
It’s a truly fascinating process, and by all reckoning Obama should not even be where he is, and yet that’s what makes him so compelling. Clinton is sinking into her own popularism and more vulgar political instincts which makes her a turn off for more of her peers (Supers) and the less rusted on supporters.
Pass the popcorn…
As someone who was initially a Hillary fan, I agree KR. I have found her tactics a complete turnoff. And although Obama is not squeaky clean, and his promises of a new style a bit idealistic/unrealistic, I think he has by far conducted himself better than Hillary
Ecky, speaking of Gitmo, they’ve just released, after 6 years, an al Jazeera camerman:
“Sami is a poster child for everything that is wrong about Guantanamo Bay: no charges, no trial, constantly shifting allegations, brutal treatment, no visits with family, not even a phone call home,” Katznelson said Thursday.
“Sami was never alleged to have hurt a soul, and was never proven to have committed any crimes. Yet, he had fewer rights than convicted mass murderers or rapists. What has happened to American justice?”
http://www.salon.com/wires/ap/world/2008/05/01/D90D5IKG0_guantanamo_journalist_freed/index.html
…this appalling travesty, no, this crime of imprisoning people without trial and continual abusive treatment is EXACTLY what is wrong with America. This is the ‘dark side’ that Darth Cheney promised, this is the ‘rights and freedoms’ that ‘they hate us for’ and all the cant and jingoism of a nation so perverted by executive power that it is sickening.
The Finns diatribe at 701 illustrates the point perfectly: attack the man rather than the issues. Reminds me so much of the tactics used (unsuccessfully) against Rudd although this is worse because he is a fellow Democrat and it may harm him against McCain
Here’s an argument:
“We believe that the presidency requires leadership. There are times when a president will take a position that a broad consensus of quote unquote experts will agree with, and there are times when a president will do something that the group of experts quote unquote does not agree with.”
Now, if you think that applied to GWBush and his (mis)adventure in Mesopotamia, then you’d correctly spot the flaw in the argument. It’s the “I don’t know much about it, but I know what I want to do” position. Whip up some hysteria and then invade a country, wow, is that good for your ratings? Just ask George. Oh, only until it turns into sh!t in a bucket of course, but that’s the problem with ’slam dunks’ that slam back.
But no, this argument has just been trotted out by Clinton’s chief advisor Wolfson to buttress her fuel tax holiday plan that she shares with John McCain!
So, just like GWBush, who dismissed all those ‘experts’ who gave him advice on Iraq he didn’t want to hear, Hillary Clinton is dismissing all the economic experts who say it is a bad idea that will not work. Boost demand (by lowering price) without also increasing supply, and the price will just rise to meet it. And the whole idea was to ‘reduce’ oil imports, NOT increase them!
There are lots more nuanced arguments, but the overwhelming concensus is that this is simply a polly trying to buy votes at the country’s expence (like the US government can afford to forgo any more income????). Just put it on the credit card for the children to pay off, if it buys me a few more votes their sacrifice will be worth it.
Onya Hill, true grit in the face of ‘expert’ sniper fire!
Is Obama kosher?
According to this lot he is:
A group of Obama’s J3wish supporters are raising money for a supportive ad in The New York Times, according to a copy of an email from an Obama backer, Chicago lawyer Jack Levin.
“A group of J3wish Americans all across the U.S. believe Barack Obama would make the best president and hence are in the process of preparing a full-page New York Times ad — to be signed by all of us who would like to be included — showing the U.S. J3wish community’s widespread support for Barack,” Levin writes, adding that the ad’s sponsors will be known as “American J3wish Patriots.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Jewish_supporters_buying_ad_for_Obama.html
KR, I respect Hillary’s right to come up with any policy she pleases. Its not just the domain of the right to go for populist policies after all! If her team talked more about policy rather than hammering Obama, she may not have gotten into the position she now finds herself in
You have to feel for Hillary.
Very good day for her SD wise. Four add-ons in NY became official delegates, and they all endorsed her. Plus another DNC bigwig jumped on. +5 Clinton.
Obama picked up one SD – another DNC bigwig. +1 Obama.
And then what happens? An SD who formally supported Clinton now jumps ship, citing a need for the party to come together etc etc.
Which means we end the day with Clinton netting 4, Obama netting 2. Still a win for the lady mind you. Except that come tomorrow, Maryland releases its add-on delegates – both tipped to support Obama. Illinois comes next week with 3 more… and so forth. The SD battle will be tied within a fortnight IMO. Feel free to quote that.
Then there is the maths problem. Totals right now are 1733-1602. There are 404 pledged delegates to go. Pretty much everybody agrees they are more or less going to break even.
In a months time therefore, the total will be around 1937-1806.
By the end of June, another 56 or so addons will have been decided. Let’s also assume that another 14 currently uncommitted SD’s pick a side in that month as well. Finally, assume they break even (personally I don’t think they will, but for the sake of peace…)
This brings us to totals of 1972-1831 with around 215 SD’s to go (Edwards still has 19 up his sleeve remember)
*shrugs*
Maths can be a b-tch.
DISCLAIMER (since it is apparently needed these days): All of the above is pure assumption, based on recent trends, simply maths and my gut feeling.
728
Andrew
You call that ‘policy’? LOL
If only!
When Clinton is shadowing McCain on bombing Iran and give aways you know she’s NOT running on policy.
It has been noted often enough that Clinton and Obama are very close on policy, but at least Obama is not running around out-bidding McCain with his policies.
Anyway, the whole thing is going nowhere a Pelosi has come out on Obama’s side of the argument. That’s it, it will not pass the House and Clinton is whistling pixies.
Max at 728 you just dont get it. Hillary HAS to win, she WILL win, this nomination is HERS, she is more ELECTABLE etc etc…. (dont worry about the maths)
exactly Andrew: she’a a CLINTON!!!!
(read- entitled.)
731
Andrew Says: “Max at 728 you just dont get it. Hillary HAS to win, she WILL win, this nomination is HERS, she is more ELECTABLE etc etc…. (dont worry about the maths)”
Actually I think it’s more like. She has to win because we know McCain doesn’t have a snowballs chance against Obama. Our only hope is for the democrats to implode by going against the people’s wishes and going with the most divisive candidate.
A whole bunch of rush Limbaugh lites.
Well well, her I was thinking that the three stooges were fans of Flux News and it turns out they are Sidney Blumenthal fans.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-dreier/sidney-blumenthal-uses-fo_b_99695.html
Sorry Pancho, I didn’t read back far enough before reposting your link @ 717.
Rain, are these emails the Clinton dirt sheets you paste into here for us to read?
doug at 733 youre exactly right- how the conservatives would love Clinton to get up. Her negative ratings would be a boon for them
I actually can’t think of anything that would get the Repubs out in force more effectively. They do love to hate Hill.
I don’t think she deserves it mind, but she certainly has an ability to inspire dislike.
Andrew @ 736
I tried asking this yesterday but was largely ignored – i think i came on too strong and was deemed an Obamafishbotite….what is the nature of these ‘negative ratings’? Have you got any links?
I mean, if these numbers are so strong, and what people bandy about, it seems as though they may be, why have her polling numbers in these primaries been improving? Or is that just me? I’m not just wrong often, but often dangerously.
I guess what i’m asking is, if these numbers are so strong, why is she still in the race? Are the dissenters made up of repugs? If so, is this such a massive drama?
Yohoho, an overview of a few bits and pieces in this article: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10010.html
It’s the flipside of the ‘What Hillary wishes she could say’ piece from a few weeks ago.
Ta Pancho.
I’ll read both and try to be ‘objective’.
A white southerner expresses her views on Hillary Clinton.
I find this video fascinating. Love the comprehensive tagging on the right.
In the words of Joyce – “Here comes everybody.”
Yo ho ho at 738
The only reason she is still in the race is to do with the pledged delegate count.
The delegate numbers are rock solid so long as one candidate can reach the magic 2025 pledged delegates (accrued though primaries and caucuses). If neither candidate can achieve 2025 then the super delegates come into play – and technically speaking they can vote for whoever they want. Since Maine, the Clinton Campaign have been promoting the notion that popular vote and electability are the deciding factors in such an environment. It is a valid legal argument but goes against the intent of the rules and such a scenario would in the opinion of many be highly destructive to the party. What we are witnessing at the moment is the slow and painful elimination of that technicality. As each of the super delegates declare their respective positions – soon or later you end up in a situation where the technicality is no longer achievable and then *bingo* you have your nomination without a fight at the convention. However, Hillary Clinton has made it plain that she is comfortable to turn the nomination process into a fight to the bitter end – and within that fight she is more than ready to damage the party and other Democratic candidates in the process. While this reinforces the notion of Hillary the Battler, it also establish the notion that Hillary is only doing this for Hillary (as opposed to the Party or the country).
From that platform you can add the Bosnia stuff up which goes to the heart of her personal integrity and you end up with a lot of negative aura.
Catrina
What happens if the closing gap in national polls causes the SDs to stop moving towards to Obama side? Is this a likely occurance?
Can anyone here explain what the implications for the Democratic race would be if Clinton won in NC?
I know the expectations are that she’ll lose (and I still think she’ll lose), but there has been a definite narrowing in Obama’s lead over her in NC over the past week. You would think that such a victory would deliver her enormous momentum and may stem the flow of SDs to Obama and perhaps starting swinging them to her…
Hilary still likely to seat the Michigan & Florida delegates?
Yo ho ho 743
I don’t think so – most of the contests are done and dusted and its widely expected that the national popularity of the Democratic candidate will take a jump once the nomination is concluded.
Keep in mind that the remaining races only really enabling the following:
1. opportunities to engage more voters in the process
2. triggers for superdelegates to make announcements
3. closure of the public side of the process
In effect this story is already over – already the DNC is working with Obama on the National campaign, the Clinton campaign is losing steam, public support is drifting away in big numbers. Not a lot of this gets reported (I guess because its to much of a media cash-cow) but the reality is that most of the superdelegates have made up their minds for a while now – and are just in the background waiting for item 3 to get out of the way.
I find this article interesting. This guy has a bit to answer for. Edwards should have at least waited until after Super Tuesday and the California debate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/01/joe-trippi-i-should-have_n_99716.html
Im just wondering as he is from North Carolina, I have heard in the United States that people can write names on the ballots and they will be counted. Is that in all states or just some?
Latest Board odds:
SportingBet;
Sen. Barack Obama – DEM 1.90
Sen. John McCain – REP 2.40
Sen. Hillary Clinton – DEM 6.00
Al Gore DEM 21.00
USA Democratic Candidate 2008 03 May 2008 22:00 Straight
Sen. Barack Obama 1.20
Sen. Hillary Clinton 4.25
Sen Al Gore 15.00
——————–
Centrebet:
OBAMA, Barack 2.10
MCCAIN, John 2.70
CLINTON, Hillary 4.25
—————————
Iasbet:
2008 Democratic Candidate ? 2008 US Presidential Election 9:00PM GMT +10:00
Selection Win
B Obama 1.28
H Clinton 3.50
2008 Winning Party ? 2008 US Presidential Election 9:00PM GMT +10:00
Selection Win
Democratic Party 1.57
Republican Party 2.40
Quite a variance in the odds quoted by CBet and SptBet for Pres. Someone’s been having a nibble at Duck Slayer. Best value for Brutusina fanciers is the $6 at SptBet, best for The Kid. $2.10 at Cbet, tenkewveddymuch!
——————-
Kirri at 724: “…this appalling travesty, no, this crime of imprisoning people without trial and continual abusive treatment is EXACTLY what is wrong with America.”
Couldn’t agree more. It’s the fly in their apple pie, the turd in their club sandwich, the metal tacks in their Big Macs.
“Sir, would you like a serve of Freedom Fries with that?!”
New Zogby – Obama up 16 in NC, all tied in Indiana. If $4 is still around for Obama in Indiana, get on.
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1495
Just a quick note about some updates on DCW. Hillary Clinton count just increased by 1 super as a result of the DCW receiving formal confirmation of an endorsement made by DNC Herman Farrell Jr. (NY) back in late February.
This brings the super delegate count to 22 advantage Clinton.
Obama: 244
Clinton: 266
There is also an update to the Pelosi Club (super delegates committed to supporting the candidate with the most pledged delegates) with the addition of the Former President Jimmy Carter, bringing the balance of 6 for Obama and -1 for Clinton.
Obama: 250
Clinton: 265
That puts the difference at 15 advantage Clinton.
Thurs May 1:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AhAdicFOUgo6WOnh8qAGpE9R_b4F
Fri May 2:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=AmBe7p0TW_ppK7MTwVLCKZxU_b4F
Fri May 2:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=ApVcpkzNqyxH3bAdAcFn0eBJ_b4F
NC looking good, Indiana is a concern with a high undecided and bad press this week for Obama. It would be great if he could win it which might shake out more SDs
Enemy Combatant at 751
A nice selection – just what I needed with my coffee.
Here is a snapshot of presidential polling on a state by state basis:
First, Obama v McCain:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May01.html
Next, Clinton v McCain:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May01.html
I know that this page changes on a daily basis, and you can access the changes from here:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
However, it would appear that despite the claims from some in the Obama camp, it is not so clear from current polling that Obama is more electable than Clinton. At present, whoever the Democratic nominee is, it is going to be close and it is going to likely depend on Florida and Ohio.
Pancho – pity RCP doesn’t appear to include Zogby in their averages.
David Gould – Why on earth would the nomination “Florida and Ohio”? The rest of the states don’t count?
Try again:
David Gould – Why on earth would the nomination “depend on Florida and Ohio”? The rest of the states don’t count?
FG – I’m pretty sure they do. I have seen Reuters/Zogby polls on there before. We’ll see tomorrow in any case.
Nonetheless Pancho – the first good poll in ages should give The Kid some encouragement.
It really is all about the psychology now. The maths is clear cut, but it’s the psychology that has changed since PA. A solid win for Obama in NC will lift his team and a close run thing in Indiana could finish it.
On the other hand, if Hillary can keep Obama to 7% or less in NC and win Indiana, then the psychology remains with her and the race will continue into June even though the delegate score won’t change much at all.
Agree FG. Although even if Hillary loses by alot in NC AND loses Indiana, I dont think she would pull out, remember this candidacy is HERS, but it may make a swag of SDs declare and finish this thing
You wonder whether the voters in the upcoming primaries have the “let’s finish this thing” factor swaying their vote, and hence a vote for Obama??
And will all the bluff and bluster about electability, I think both Dem candidates would easily account for McCain (the head to head will improve once the candidate is chosen), but I think Hillary has more negative perceptions for the Repugs to exploit (doesnt mean they would win though).
754
David Gould
You may have missed the discussion about these maps over the last few days, so here’s a quick primer.
If you only look at who wins in each of the states, BUT NOT at by how much, then yes Hillary looks to be better able to take McCain.
But there are 50 races, each one has a story, so let’s just take one, say Texas.
Obama is one point behind McCain in Texas polling, but Hillary is 7% behind. In just this state alone, Obama catches McCain if he wins it. He is very close to winning a total of 93 EV (Electoral Votes) off McCain, whereas Hillary is only closely behind McCain on 13.
Conversely, Hillary holds much slimmer margins on her winning states than does Obama over McCain.
She’s ‘at risk’ on 94 Ev’s whereas Obama is far more secure with his, and only shakey on 36 of his electoral college votes.
By looking at each state, comparing the margins, the demographics, and the powerful campaign machine that Obama wields, it’s possible to see Hillary’s lead as being on ‘thin ice’ but Obama more solidly threatening McCain.
The above is why the Republicans DO NOT want to fight Obama, as he changes the electoral map and threatens them on home turf. He can outspend and out-organise them, and they are sh!tting themselves that he can wipe them out for a generation.
Hillary, on the other hand, is playing the game they know: a couple of swing states will decide it, and hey, she’s got more baggage and a pile of negatives to bring out hostile Republicans.
Obama is the one to change history, Hillary IS history.
Or you could just use this site which is an alternative to electoral-vote. Macca is beating Obi and Billary on this one but Obi is closer. All these maps are crap anyway until these is a two-man contest.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
Diogs-
“two-man contest”
freudian slip?
765
Jen
“freudian slip?”
No one cares what she wears under her armour Jen! LOL
765 Jen
Nup. Just reality.
Ferny (or anyone else with a theologico-political expertise)
I’ve been doing my homework on how neocons justify their belief in Christian values, which include poverty and charity, as well as espousing rampant capitalism and denigrading socialism, which I think would best characterise JC’s politics.
The neocons spout the Parable of the Talents from Matthew, where the master gives three slaves money. Two earn more with it but the third buries it and returns the same amount. The two who increase their wealth are rewarded and the schmuck who buried the loot is punished. This evidently means the more money you make, the better Christian you are. I’m not sure how this fits in with “It’s harder for a rich man to enter heaven than for a camel (which I realise is a thick rope) to pass through the eye of a needle”.
Do the neocons have a point or are they the Lying Liars that Al Franken assures me they are
#750, Catrina, thanks for keeping us up to date with the superdelegates. I expect there will be a lot more to count after Tuesday.
Noocat at 768
No problem – although I think my Pelosi Club numbers may be out just a little. I think the numbers are actually 1 more in favour of Obama than I have stated (gets a little complicated when you have someone who has endorsed Clinton but will vote for the delegate with the most pledged delegates (Obama) so your adding and subtracting and at the same time both the Pelosi playpen and the bigger super playpen keep shifting in size.
Well, I’m looking forward to Hillary’s lead heading into the negative region soon.
Despite everything thrown at him – the Wright and “bitter” smears, Hillary’s fear campaigns, media attacks, and a full frontal assault from the Republicans – Obama’s drop in the polls is actually negligible. Obama has definitely earned this Democrat nomination…
Noocat at 770
Yep – me too! But there is this thing hanging in the air – what if she doesn’t concede? There are 115 days to go before the convention and I worry about the metal health of people all over the planet. Think about it – 115 days of Hillary articulating the rationale, the paths to victory, the moving goalposts, and the explanation of why it is good for the people, the party and the country. But that’s not all – there are a potential 115 days of r/Ron talking about Wright and tickers and lies and deceit.
I agree with you that Obama has definitely earned this Democrat nomination but come nomination day, I figure we will have earned it as well.
Uncle Karl, is McBombster’s man in the FOX-hole. Might be a bit hard to neutralise the negative spin on this one.
“House committee threatens Rove with subpoena.”
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/05/01/house-committee-threatens-rove-with-subpoena/
Catrina at 753, thanks. You shoot a great game of pool yourself. Dang ‘n’ all, you must be cuttin’ up real bad figurin’ that you’ll never come under consideration for a “Blue Rain”. That honour is bestowed only upon “Chosen Ones”.
No doubt Hillary Oakly will call for Back up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LsV50T5uEyw
And she will definitely sell more gas at the pump than bomb bomd!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qE114hJgEEA&feature=related
Well, that is a strong possibility. If it gets to that, I might have to take a holiday from the media for a few months… watching Hillary die a slow political death has already been painful, watching it drag out for 115 more days as her and her supporters become even more shrill, espousing policies even more extreme than obliterating Iran, and who knows what else… aaargh, best not thinking about it right now.
*sigh*
Five years ago, George strutted across the flight deck in his flying suit, the banner proclaimed “Mission Accomplished”, and the media had a wet dream:
http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/
…which they seem to have awoken from, and yet learned absolutely nothing.
KR at 763 a terrific summary, but when will you learn, this race is HILLARY’S
Noocat and Catrina
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of Billary’s failed campaign to get the nomination, has said it will all be over by the 15th of June, one way or the other. That’s 44 days at the most.
Good news diogenes, but why that day??
Gotta love the Rude Pundit!
Bill Clinton is Hillary’s Jeremiah Wright! LOL
Well, here’s a guy who philandered his way throughout their marriage, even inducted at least one intern into the delights of the Oral Office, er, Oval Office, and publicly humiliated her over and over again.
Well, why didn’t she just walk out? You know, like Obama was supposed to do at his church?
It’s funny, but somehow we won’t see Obama making that argument, but if Hillary does win the nomination, we can be sure we’ll hear it from the Republicans! LOL
Ferny
#684
Obama and facing the Rev Wright being now ‘disowned’
Been out , just scolled last night so far & noticed your blog, missed when replying to EC ‘s 2 TLC blogs. Thank you for your blog & intent in the first paragraph
As to the balance , I’ve since re-read your #652 and it may appear you stand broadly by the overall assessment accuracy you listed. Similar comments have been made by Kirri , Codger , Junior Senator & others, and that is everyones perogative here.
However you raised a few issues and also culural gulfs with some Obama supporters here with our only similarity to vote Labor.
Rain will confirm the dominant wing of the Democrat Party is the “liberal Democrats” . Within that wing is an not insignificant group with “elitist-view based including some ‘Kennedys’.Obama is certainly an ‘elitist’. Many Obama supporting blogers here also seem to support the “liberal Democrats” wing views of which some of those blogers have “elitist-view based just like some within the US Democrat Party “liberal Democrat” wing. This is my political commentary and unless banned will continue to so refer as an accurate political model. There are other “liberal Democrats” here who are different view base including ‘Intellectuals’ and many others as one would expect on a free entry site
Unlike some here, I’m self taught and think nothing of it , and admire actually those you’ve used their opportunities & skills to gain Tertiary & other honours/positions (and why twice previously mentioned favourably Victor Chang’s , Dick Smith’s & Gov Gen William Dean etc). I do not see a contradiction in my last statement .There’s no chips on my shoulder, but any with chips go to unemployed or a homeless refuge
Finally there are about 26 of Obama supporters , some regular & some irregular and 3 amigos. Most of you throw obviously belittling ‘barbs’, so when one Amigo may reply with some return fire I can not see you guys disadvantage.
780 Andrew
So, I asked, when does this end?
“June 15,” he said without a nanosecond of hesitation.
Why then? I asked. The primaries finish on June 3, he noted, and after that there will be pressure on the uncommitted superdelegates (who now number about 300) to commit to one candidate or another. It should not take too long for these undecided insiders to make up their minds and declare their intentions–even if there are some who would rather not choose between the two.
So all done by June 15? You won’t contend the nomination contest beyond then? I asked.
“Oh, I’m confident we’ll be the nominee,” he said, smiling.
McAuliffe’s Promise: It’s Over By June 15
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/davidcorn/2008/04/mcauliffes-promise-its-over-by.html
William
I’m don’t think we do UK elections at PB, but Labour was caned yesterday by the Tories. And Neil’s (Seven-Up) party, the Liberal Democrats, beat Labour in the popular vote. Perhaps Neil has been right all along and he’s the winner of the Seven-Up clan! ;?
“With just over half of results from yesterday’s local elections announced, David Cameron’s Conservatives are on course for a significant breakthrough, winning as much as 44 per cent of the national vote.
Labour is now expected to finish with as little as 24 per cent, humiliatingly pushed into third place by the Liberal Democrats on 25 per cent. ”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/mayoroflondonelection2008/1919873/Mayor-election-2008-Tories-look-to-Boris-Johnson-to-seal-election-success.html
Diogenes, forgive me for my skepticism.
Hillary first declared this nomination was “all about delegates”. She then changed her mind when she started losing on the delegate front, so then it became the “popular vote”, and when she was losing that too, it became the more obscure “electability”.
So while McAuliffe might now be declaring June 15 as the end date because it is all about superdelegates, I wouldn’t at all be surprised if Hillary reverts back to the issue of “electability” should things not go her way, therefore hoping to spend the remaining weeks to the convention trying to convince superdelegates to change their mind…
But I guess we’ll see!
Kirri
#781
You use facts like Obama does , dispensible.
Hillary was not standing for POTUS , Obama is. Obama had no courage to leave the Church whereas anyonewith ‘ticker’ would
Bill philandered his way throughout their marriage ?
Obama’s hero MLK did also.
Noocat
#785
Hillary has every right to in the interests of the Party rather than having Obama
who stands for nothing but vague promises crushing the Party
Noocat
That’s what Hillary would want to do if she had the chance but the Democrats actually want to win this time. The noises from Dean, Pelosi et al are that they will unite behind Obama when the SDs pull their fingers out and finish her off after the last primary. Don’t forget that Gore and Edwards are yet to endorse and they can help kill her off. They have to choose a VP and start putting their candidate up against McCain in ads etc. It would be suicide not to cut the rotting carcass down. They are not going to be lemmings again, figuratively. Hillary might be offered Attorney General or something like that to go quietly.
This is quite a good page for the UK local election results:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/hi/elections/local_council/08/map/html/map.stm
Will be interesting to see if Labour’s worst defeat for 30-40 years translates into tangible panic within the Government.
767 Diog
They really use the parable of the talents to justify unregulated capitalism??
To put it very briefly, the parable was actually about using the gifts/life God gives humanity for the benefit of humanity. The point was that the foolish stewards would waste their gifts and the wise stewards would take the gifts and do worthwhile things with them. Selfishness would be a waste of God’s gifts, while showing compassion or otherwise contributing to human flourishing would be a wise use of those gifts. If you waste your life, it’s a ’sin’. If you use your life to benefit others, then God is pleased.
The parable had nothing to do with actual money; it was a parable ie a moral tale using everyday examples to make a point.
Obama’s lead in NC has increased on the RCP average to 8.4 now that Zogby’s (+16 to Obama) poll has been added. The Zogby Indiana poll (tie) has not been added yet.
At the risk of playing ‘gotcha politics’, Hillary is caught out again:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/archive/2008/05/01/twisting-god-bless-us.aspx
RAIN #691 and PANCHO #713
Rain ,
the evidence is on your side but Pancho coming from the
‘liberal Democrat’ wing of the Democrat Party which has been responsible for the rout of the Prty is in self denial.
Lets look at the actual evidence of POTUS elections , the indesputable test
over the last 36 years
Pancho’s wing the “liberal Democrats” , 4 candidates , all thrashed , Obama next
vs
The ALP right faction equivalent in the Democrats
3 candidates (Clinton (2) & Gore , 2 wins & Gore lost by 2,000 , wins no Nader
The only other Candidate was the Georgian Carter who sure was not a
northeast Liberal
When the wing has the faction numbers , it always produces loses 100% record
Now to Pancho’s disagreement to your comments on DNC Chairman Howard Dean
Pancho didn’t say Dean also is from the same faction he supports the “liberal Democrats” nor that in 2004 as Primary race leader , HE stuffed up , self imploded and hurt the Party’s chances to defeat Bush. Dean is another election loser.
Now Howard Dean DNC role who is also a “liberal Democrats” faction member (like Obama) in stitching Hillary (from the ‘right Democrat’ faction) to favour Obama from his faction over the Michigan & Florida ’suspension’ that Hillary was at the time polled as winning by 20%+ (and later did by 17%). It was dirty politics by Obama with Dean acting as the frontman.
If Hillary chooses to fight for those 2 States , Obama and yous want to hope she doesn’t tell the whole truth.
The ALP had a similar looney faction. The socialist left.
Ferny
There is oodles of commentary about the Parable of the Talents. Here is a link to one from no lesser an expert on neocon morality than John Howard in his Hillsong address. I’m not making this up!
JOHN HOWARD: Parable of the Talents, to me has always been, has always seemed to me to be the “free enterprise parable”. The parable that tells us that we have a responsibility if we are given assets to add to those assets.
http://paulswritings.wordpress.com/2007/08/10/howard-wrong-on-parable-of-the-talents/
Billary’s situ reminds me of the rollercoaster experienced by those dealing with someone with a terminal illness…..remissions can cast doubt on prognosis and give a such false sense of optimism .
It has been a pleasant day scrolling through PB Central today and some great posts.
Spotted this article “Did the US Supreme Court just elect John McCain?”
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2008/3090
Diog, Someone needs to tell those ‘Christian’ neocons that if that parable were about the godliness of wealth building then Jesus, being poor, was clearly a sinful wretch.
I seem to recall Him saying something about it being “impossible to serve both God and mammon” (meaning material wealth).
Hilllsong would have liked the message as they believe in what is sometimes called the “prosperity doctrine” that wealth is an indication of God’s favour and poverty of his disfavour. Clearly such a belief system could only have come out of California and not Bangladesh.
A few Hoosiers aren’t all that swayed by Rev Wright, one way or the other.
Crikey, these people need to wake up, smell the coffee, and get over to Pollbludgers where I’m sure Ron will tell ‘em they are dreamin’!
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/us/politics/02indiana.html
…goddamn those Hoosiers, they just ARE NOT paying attention to the profound questions that Ron has raised to the nth power of absurdity, right here, every day, for how long?
And they don’t care?
Man, what’s the world coming to? i ask you!
How would Jesus behave in the hallowed halls of merchandising called Hillsong?
He’d probably be chucking out the cash registers and getting himself arrested! LOL
792 Ron
I take it you’re not a fan of Julia Gillard, a rather prominent member of the socialist left.
KR,
Somehow I don’t think Hillsong would recognise him, let alone worship him. And yes I think He’d be overturning the cash registers again. Bloody radical.
Kirri
#796
this article you quoted demonstrates why you can only use the coloured pieces on votemaster as a draught board to demonstate you know little about electoral maps. Stick to the financial pages & Iraq
Go back & listen to not how they told a reporter they’d vote or be influeneced but whether the Pastors comments were any concern
After that , you can read the Wasghinton Post below. The pastor story will remain alive from neon reporters , objective ones & pro hillary ones , doesn’t matter its news so the voters won’t forget the Pastor….this being the non issue
Fair and balanced commentary from the Smirking Chimp. Hillary’s refusal to concede despite having lost should not be tolerated by the Democrat Party. Why is it being tolerated?
Because
(1) Hillary is a female
(2) Her husband has a “zipper problem”
(3) Starry eyed Democrats cling to the myth that Bill actually did something in his eight years
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/print/14249
Ferny
Ferny I put a proposition & you’ve answered with a question
You’re disputing the election POTUS results of ‘liberal Democrats’ candidates ?
after which i’m happy to discuss Julia
Even the neocons can pick the Obama’s Philly con trick ,
and surgically destroy it
“These equivalences (Obama’s) having been revealed as the cheap rhetorical tricks they always were, Obama has now decided that the man he simply could not banish because he had become part of Obama himself is, mirabile dictu, surgically excised.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_race_speech_revisited.html
Dio@801
Great link!
Ron,
You say so many things it’s easy to lose a proposition in the crowd. I must have missed it.
Ferny
#805
In my #792 I was saying the actual history of POTUS elections since 1972
has seen 4 ‘left Democrat’ candidates represent the typical northeast Liberal
(their faction is called ‘Liberal Democrats or ‘left Democrats’)
The majority (over 50%) here & in the US vote only for a ALP or Democrat candidate who is ‘central’ like Hawke , Keating & Rudd
and in the US a Clinton or Gore lost by 2,000 votes & won without Nader)
(NOT from the Labor left or Democrat left)
The only Democrat left candidates in 36 years werel 4 in the US, all got thrashed again highlighting the view
(admittedly one was less ‘left’ left than the other 3)
Its like putting Julia up as the ALP leader , Howard would have won I believe,
All I want from any of the candidates is to solve the palestinian ghetto crisis
that and only that would prove they are for a new direction
(maybe it would go a long way to resolving iraq and bringing gas back to $2 a gallon)
The sleeper issue is “the war on terror” and its real costs to Uncle Sam
A lot of folks
Bill philandered his way throughout their marriage ?
Obama’s hero MLK did also.
ron @ 786 another ‘thinkskin’ checkmate moment! luvit.
Check this…
http://www.yourdemocracy.net.au/drupal/node/6291
Codger
Just got back to my screen & you give me a cartoon , and very good one ignoring the politics
As you have your own ‘codger’ class category , the popcorn set may not understand the ‘codger’ message of thinkskin’ , so perhaps you should define
805
Ferny Grover
That’s caused by a severe condition Ferny, it’s called ‘eyes glazed over’, and I’ve got it too. Only certain posts, but man, they glaze the eyes, numb the senses, and cause me to rapidly skip down the page! LOL
The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT, and probably better than most people could have realised had they not seen the Reverend in full bipolar disorder.
The good Hoosiers interviewed in the article I cited obviously figured that out.
Diogenes at 801
Wow – that article has some serious energy!
FINNS & GG re Kirriblli
Kirri
#809
“The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT, and probably better than most people could have realised had they not seen the Reverend in full bipolar disorder ”
The first Obamabot has broken ranks !! And now disown the Pastor
Kirri NOW says the pastor quote: “the Reverend in full bipolar disorder”
Kirri says it casually as if thats always been his view. It hasn’t , do you want your previous quotes ? Such ‘revisionist’ attempts will not do.
However you could say frankly my original judgement was in eror and I now realise he is a whacko , like the 3 Amigos have said from day one
Who will be the next Obamabot to break ranks, jen , j/v , , there’s another 25
Perhaps if you now re-read Obama’s Philly speech ‘a more perfect union’ , you
will notice how many times Obama did commit himself to Wright then and and there are numerous quotes now to quote back against him politically. Silly man
I think I may have contracted as ISD (Internet Transmitted Disease) – Ferny showed symptoms at #806 and KR talked about a similar affliction at #809. I recognize the symptions – your reading, you recognize some key words, the name flickers in your subconsouse, you scroll down in the hope the someone else has posted something on-topic, there is a sincking feeling in the pit of your stomach and your thinking to yourself ‘it will go away’ but in your mind you can hear a voice calling out ‘just 115 days’. Your eyelids drop slowly and everything goes dark, you walk away from the keyboard – eyes wide shut. Looking out into the darkness you hear yourself screaming.
Wow, back to reality!
No change over on the DCW.
Cracker piece Dio, that one by Prof Green. And you get the feeling that he’s not entirely alone!
There’s a whipser in the Indiana press that Evan Bayh may not be holding everyone’s nuts in a jar anymore, and after Andrews you get the hint they’re itching to defect.
It’s like a Kremlin power struggle without the corpses.
812
Catrina
ISD’s can be nasty Catrina, and can really mess up your head.
I’d prescribe lots of serious distractions, maybe some US polls, study those, and read some good quality analysis, get lots of rest, some exercise, and avoid anything with the word W_R_I_G_H_T as it will bring on the symptoms.
Failing that, Jon Stewart and relaxant of choice!
ron @ 808 your point?
Sorry ron @ 809
every time you make me special I go all funny…anyway
for the ‘popcorn set’ and you
524
codger Says:
April 30th, 2008 at 10:20 pm
But ron my words are expensive, ‘I’m special’ but free for you…
Good morning all, says Ron @ 394
‘seems the more that generally white Americans see Obama as obviously ‘black’ the less they support him which may indicate a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’
And I thought there’s something not quite wright about that …hmm Got it.
Just add one of your previous comments…‘thinkskin’…it’s easy…So the last bit reads:
a ‘black’ candidate may have an electoral problem generally with whites’, ‘thinkskin’. More better. Or Houston we have a problem?
Over to you Major Ron.
BTW Jen’s togs are gone, your thinkskin is in, how about that!
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codger at 820
Show me my money and I’ll show you my brochure.
New thread up.
I meant that whoever wins the democratic nomination, the federal election will be close and it will likely depend – again – on Florida and Ohio.
As to close things in various states, if you look at the map over time, there are no surprises. Polls may be closer here and there, but the fact remains that Hillary is going to win Penn, while Obama might not, and Obama has no chance in Florida and is behind in Ohio. Dreaming about Obama winning Texas is wishful thinking in the extreme. It just is not going to happen.
Indiana polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html