Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.
* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.
822 Comments
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Pancho,
Clinton- I’ll provide a short term fix to a short term problem. Fist full of cash.
Obama I have a plan that over the course of the business cycle combined with mandating best practice environmental legislation that does not exist through a Congress I can’t control and means you have to replace your car at $20,000 plus, I’ll then rebate you with an inadequate bribe and pretend that my new way of doing things will make the oil companies quiver. I have a dream!
Is that the choice?
It was in Australia last election. And when it is outlined starkly by Obama as her plan being worth $35 over the season, it doesn’t seem so crash hot anymore. Note also that Obama’s ad makes specific mention of a $1000 middle class tax cut. You may be right – her byte may sell better, but I’m not so sure.
Also, I’m sure you got this as an old cynic, but did you like the soaring West-Wingesque music at the back of Obama’s ad?
Pancho,
Who is the “old cynic” when they blithely point to contrived rules to disenfranchise substantial portions of the population simply because their favourite would be disadvantaged by an out break of Democracy.
A convention that does not seat Michigan and Florida will produce a sham candidate and be only one more reason for voters to support McCain.
What is Obama afraid of?
As I say, only the rules. The convention will seat delegates for both states, but the DNC won’t be bullied into playing a pro-Hillary game. If she wants it settled now, she can have 50/50 splits. If she wants to wait till she has lost, they may just be seated as they are.
Not sure if you guys know this but a new Insider Advantage poll has come out in NC.
And the result is:
Clinton 44
Obama 42
Undecided 14
First time Hillary’s led in NC for a long time…
Got a link SL?
Sorry:
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_430_370.aspx
So Obama’s a terrorist now? Ha! This just gets more insane.
Ron – it suddenly became clear to me! You’re Pauline Hanson ‘aint ya!! It explains everything – including the chip on your shoulder.
But as you mentioned it, Wright’s message was not racist – it was, in fact, a denunciation of racism. That was it’s point. All of which is irrelevant. He’s not the candidate.
So, there ya go Pauline..er..Ron. Your little rant got you noticed – which is its purpose, after all.
RCP Update.
There’s been some movement on RCP since this morning (our time). The national average has Obama’s lead over Hillary stretching from this morning’s low of 2% to 3% thanks largely to a NYTimes/CBS News poll showing Obama with an 8% lead.
On the other side, Hilary’s SD lead has increased from this morning’s 20 to 21 now.
A bit more reality for the kiddies:
With the overall economy growing at a mere 0.6 percent annual rate for the second quarter in a row, consumer spending advanced by only 1 percent, the government estimated. That was down sharply from the 2.9 percent gain for all of 2007 and the 3.1 percent gain for 2006. It was the weakest showing since 2001, the last time the economy was ensnared in a recession.
…and everyone should sing along together: consumer spending IS the American economy!
Oh well, not quite all of it, but over 70% of it. A drop of 2/3 in just two years in the BIGGEST segment of your economy is BIG news. (OK, Rev Wright’s Kennedy impersonation is pretty big too!).
The much touted US consumer is contracting, not spending. So are they saving then? Not that you’d notice. They aren’t spending because they cannot borrow any more! So, saddled with a pile of debt, no savings, and their house values sinking a lot faster than Venice (that’s Italy by the way), they are not happy campers.
Especially the ones that are now camping out on the streets for an extra long holiday from creature comforts.
Welcome to America.
But help is on the way (just like after Katrina!), and George is signing cheques as quickly as he can. Your $600 will buy a lot of spam.
Enjoy.
SL – that is interesting. I’d still suggest there is no way she can win in NC, given how static demographic trends have been all through the season. I’d like to see another poll or two as well. A good point your linked article makes is that Obama may need to divert some resources from Indiana. Here is some other analysis of that poll:
‘The difference is in the black vote. Firstly, Obama leads that vote “only” 64-20, with 15% undecided, a vote he has won 83-15 over the course of the primary season. Secondly, the poll shows only 25% of the turnout being black, which would be a very low result. The general rule of thumb is that black turnout equals about 150% of a state’s African-American population, which in North Carolina’s case would work out to 33%.
…They also have a history, not unlike ARG, of publishing weird results in the run-up to the primaries (Clinton +33 in Tennessee, Clinton +8 and Edwards +7 over Obama in Iowa) and then fixing those results with more reasonable looking results just before the primary actually takes place.’
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/clinton-2-in-north-carolina.html
Make that a 2/3 drop in one year.
Same difference, quicker rate of decline.
SL,
Wow!
Naturally, you would want to see something else to confirm the numbers, but not a good reult for Obama.
The “Wrong Way” Wright debacle is having an impact!
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353459,00.html
Pancho
#591
“The moment two speeches addressing different points were different, his game was over! What petty garbage”.
Ron:
National Polls of McCain vs Hillary and vs Obama. Hillary wins easily
State Polls of 3 key States of McCain vs Hillary and vs Obama. Hillary wins easily
So when the stats do not suit , shoot the messenger explaining why. None of you dare mention these Polls will you because the US voters are saying NO to Obama
Your comments were therefore diversionary. They were also falsely based.
At Philly Obama said Wright was the basis of his racial belief values
Yesterday on TV Obama says Wrights racial message is wrong, he doesn’t know !
Pancho you are peddling false speechs. both came out of Obama’s own mouth !
“I’m sick of jokes about John McCain’s age! In fact, the only thing older than a joke about John McCain’s age – is John McCain.” (Colbert)
For anyone interestedd, there is click on link at my 613 above to the Hillary/O’Reilly interview.
Well worth a looksee
Just to focus on the real world again for a moment (sorry kiddies, you can go back to sticking your pastor pin into the Obama doll’s eyes, this is for the adults): what will the US look like in November, at least economically speaking?
Well, no prizes if you say in recession, and that’s either technically true, or effectively true. Because it will be true in one or both senses.
What’s held up the US economy this last quarter was a small increase in exports, but also a large build up of inventory. And as everyone knows, after you are stocked up, and nobody orders, you don’t stock up any more. (Discretionary buying died in the proverbial posterior. The small increase was for health and food and stuff you kind of MUST have).
So the next quarter will sag considerably, and maybe Bush’s pocket money will push up consumer spending a teeny bit after that, but essentially, they are headed into negative growth country and it’s bigger than the Fed or the prinitng presses.
In that climate, I’m so interested to hear John McCain speak about the conservative’s record of financial management and regulation, and how the North American peso is steadily bringing them to a tourist lead recovery. (New slogan: Cheap holidays in the USA and we throw in a house if you stay for a whole month!)
Pass the popcorn…
O’Reilly does Clinton?
Where’s the bucket?
You’ll enjoy this one KR.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/toles_main.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
NC RCP average now has Obama’s lead in freefall shrinking a further 3 points to 7.3 down from 10.3 yesterday.
The most recent polls for Indiana from PPP and SurveyUSA have Clinton’s lead at 8 and 9 points respectively.
Where’s my razor blade?
I have no idea whether McCain sang like a canary or not, but he was a damn fool if he didn’t. It is normal procedure to change radio frequencies, codes, call signs, target designations, flight paths, and every other significant detail known to a downed pilot/crew, so there is no point in being heroic about it.
Anyway, McCain’s war exploits are a minor detail compared to what is being revealed about him and the likely nature of his presidency should he get the top gig.
For starters it appear he plans to reignite the Cold War against both Russia and China, kick the Russians out of the G8 and deny China a seat, and create a new international body of democracies that will actively work against those countries that aren’t.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134317
According to Robert McFarlane, Ronnie Raygun’s National Security Advisor, a McCain presidency will be run by the neocons fruitcakes just like GWB’s. ….My ears perked up when I heard this assessment because it confirms what I’ve been hearing elsewhere: while Henry Kissinger, Brent Scowcroft, and other realist elders are consulted by McCain, his heart is with the younger neocons, the “beavers,” in the words of one McCain supporter, who draft the speeches and get the grunt work done. As Fareed Zakaria points out in the Washington Post today, the result is disastrous recommendations such as threatening to expel Russia from the G-8. In the aftermath of the Iraq debacle, the U.S. needs allies, not enemies. But the neocons don’t see it that way.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacob-heilbrunn/mccain-camp-is-neocon-red_b_99046.html
So will Americans want another neocon captive in the WH? One that may actually be more dangerous than George because he has a taste for blood.
If whatever the American equivalent of the ‘drover’s dog’ is can’t beat this senile old git then American voters are far more stupid than I’m prepared to believe, even after the surprise of 2004.
Either of the Dem contenders should have no problem once they start applying the blowtorch to Macca’s nether regions. Especially, given his admission to not understanding economics.
FG,
Music to bleed out with.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNjLUPqckWY
619
Greensborough Growler
Ouch! LOL
Did you happen to see Supreme Inquisitor, er I mean Supreme Court Judge Scalia do his “well torture isn’t punishment” rap?
He’s one sick puppy, but I guess we all knew that, huh? (Florida, chads etc)
GG
#613 Hillary on Labor based Policys on the neocon opinioned Fox News. “ticker’
This GG and FINNS is what all Obama supporters will not answer…Labor policy
Thanks for that link of Hillary vs Bill O’Reilly on Fox News. I watched whilst the Obamabots are thinking of how they are going to “spin’ their refusal to mention key National & State Polls showing the voters soundly prefer Hllary over Obama
The highest profile US neocon aggressively questioned Hillary (the only Democrat candidate left with fair dinkum Labor values). For some , she may not be the most likeable compared to Obama but the choice is not about likeability its , its about practicle equity based solutions (Hillary) not dreamy impractical philosophys/words (Obama). Sorry Diogenes she is dislikeable. The Labor based policys & ticker she has which Obama in both areas does not.
Hillary demolished O’Reilly’s neocon based questions
Taxes. O’Reilly you are going to socialism increase my taxes cause I’m (& B.C.) are rich and give it to the middle & lower class. Yes says Hillary , its equity
Oil Companys. You are going to socialism put a super tax on them & redistribute to lower taxed voters. Yes says Hillary, its for equity & to change US energy use
Health Insurance Companys. why should I fund the uninsured poor. Hillary says insurance must be for all, its fairness and the model will be what all Congress men get.The Insurance company’s premiums rates are to be subject 2 regulation.
And Obama’s plan says Hillary, the health uninsured & underinsured will still be under & uninsured & the premiums will still increase 2 guarantee the status quo
Hillary with ‘ticker’ offers real change. Obamabots offer ‘content free’ words
The truth is had Gore been in place of Hillary saying the same words , the non Obamabot Obama supporters here would be supporting Gore and not Obama
#605 – Swing Lowe – [Not sure if you guys know this but a new Insider Advantage poll has come out in NC. And the result is: Clinton 44, Obama 42, Undecided 14]
SL – tq for the link. This morning, When i post #557. I saw a reference in one of the blog but no link. So i was just hinting. Now your link has confirmed it. Sensational, as I have expected.
I also saw a report that Obama and his wife are going to have a blitz over the weekend on different media to once again counter Pastorgate. So Philly Mark 3 is coming. Me worry? never. Pastorgate is now like the quicksand for Obama, the more he kicks trying to get out, the deeper he sinks.
FG, i saw the first part of Hillary interview with O’Reiley this arvo. She looks relax and presidential. Whereas Obama was looking annoyed, haggard and hassled. “Where’s my razor blade?” indeed.
What exactly is r/Ron going to talk about once the nerve impulses finally make their way through Hill’s skull and she realises she’s already dead?
Are we going to have to start hearing about how much more electable McCain is?
It’s interesting that the polls can change so quickly in the US. Australian polling changes tend to be much more gradual. Are they more fickle in the US? And the issues presented are so trivial. They wouldn’t get a run here. For such a dramatic change to happen in Oz the candidate (in the words of the old adage), would have to be found in bed with a dead boy or a live animal.
Of course, polls that change quickly can do so in either direction.
And then there’s the maths. Still rock solid for an Obama win.
#620 FG – [NC RCP average now has Obama’s lead in freefall shrinking a further 3 points to 7.3 down from 10.3 yesterday]. More freefall, now is, within MOE:
Nat’l RCP Average 45.7 – 42.7 Obama +3.0
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
630
Finns, see my 560 & 609 on these figures
Sorry #627 was for GG
Now I feel rejected Finns.
Had another look at the delegates and decided that Hillary needs the razorblade far more than I do. It’s gift-wrapped and in the mail.
dogb at 268, Ron and the finns have steadfastly refused to answer the Obama v McCain question. Obviously they cant even consider this as Hillary HAS to win.
I assume they will back McCain in the end
Nonetheless, it’s critical that The Kid reclaim the narrative. Any guesses as to how? Release some SD announcements? Some words of support from some big names – Kennedy, Oprah, etc (who have all gone quiet). Thoughts?
The stalking parrot is back!
Perhaps Barack should try enjoying underdog status again. Did him no harm last year. Let’s hope there are no bicycle seats hidden in the shed.
634 Andrew
So I figure, sad really.
#635 FG – Ok, this one is for u. The “Kid” should get down on his knees and call our Dear Leader. let our DL shows him how to affect “change”. You make sure that you get into power first before anything else. Notice the “changes” that the DL have brought in since assuming office, eg: yesterday was Gay Rights, today’s SMH headline: “Robin Hood Budget”.
* You dont go around scaring people like the Pastorgate and Ayersgate;
* you dont go around insulting people like Bittergate;
* you dont go around looking down your country like Michelegate;
* you dont go around big noting yourself as some sort of messiah with “We are the change that America is seeking”;
* you dont go around trying to solve the Race problem with Philly Mark 1 and then stuffed it up completely with Philly Mark 2;
You do quietly reassuring the “working families”, and “economic conservative” to the rich. That’s how you do it. You are right he is a KID, an L-Plate ala Latham.
Some minor movement at Cbet.
OBAMA, Barack 2.00
MCCAIN, John 2.70
CLINTON, Hillary 4.75
HRC is still available at $6 at Sportingbet.
It’s astounding how well Obi’s weathered the Brimstone Wright Blitzkrieg so far.
Brilliant strategy there Finns. Do you think Obama would be where he is now if he played the game like that? Of course not. But you don’t want him anywhere near the candidacy anyway.
Obama has to win the primary before he can compete for President. Playing small target would not have worked for him going up against the Clintons who are the master of lie, cheat and steal your way to the top. The only way he could have won against Clinton is by doing exactly what he did. Tapping into the disillusionment of the Democratic base.
Ferny #608
The evidence is Wright is a whaco and a moron with a Uni degree to fluff up his extemist racial & anti American views , religious terrorism of the mainstream beliefs such as they are. Your problem is here publicly you supported this fool because he was THE Mentor of your ‘elitist’ based Candidate who is one of yous. The irony annd the ‘ecstasy’
FINNS #630. What Ferny & other Obamabots do is to quote Polls to appear they
they have a POTUS defining psephological base when they are nonsense for that
purpose. All Ferny’s Polls confirm is a Democrat preference for Nominee , but 90% + will vote for either Candidate in Nov. anyway ! Furthermore if those Democrat faithful aren’t going to vote , more won’t vote for Obama anyway based on Polls the Obamabots ALSO quote quote here.!
All the POTUS deciding Polls both Nationally and for the 3 key States favour Hillary so they don’t quote them. All the Polls showing the % of which Candidate the Democrat faithful won’t vote for they don’t quote them. Oamabotic fantasy
SWING LOWE
Thanks for the Hillary good news NC poll. You didn’t comment I notice and don’t comment to the 3 Amigos who lack TLC but like Hillary don’t need it , ‘ticker’ is enough.
The Obamabots immediately still attacked the NC Poll. My sense FINS & GG is its a snapshot I guess with the Pastor background there. All polls seem to underestimate the Pro Obama ‘black’ vote & they’ll probably still turn out despite Wright to give Obama a sound & not close NC win
Well, you certainly shouldn’t do this http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,353536,00.html
Cille at 643
But Zirkle primary objective is to educate and inform – that’s got to be plus. And he said he is not a member of the Nazi party. How could he loose?
#642 – Ronnie – have I turned from from a Dolfinn into a Shark Fin? [FINS & GG]
No FINNS
you are the ‘real deal’ of reality here as is GG , amongst Obamabotic fairyland
Ron at 646
Does that make me a fairy princess?
#647 – Katrina – the curse of New Orleans.
Ferny
Just keep looking at the maths. Obama can’t lose from here. He’s going to fall over the line and regroup. Even Adam has come to terms with that. If Hillary was 40 delegates closer, I think the SDs would overturn the “people’s choice”, but they won’t overturn a 130 lead.
GG
I have a retraction and apology to make. A while ago I said Bill turned down an offer from Sudan to hand over OBL, which you said was a right-wing attack-lie on Bill. As it turns out, you were correct, although the facts are hotly disputed. A Sudanese citizen contacted the US and offered to hand over OBL. The US cannot conduct diplomacy through a private individual and tried every avenue with the Sudanese Government to get OBL without success. A right-wing author has written a book saying that a Sudanese general claims otherwise but there is no “smoking gun”. And Bill seems to have given “counter-terrorism a much higher priority than any other President”.
The Finnigans at 648
Keep talking like that and I go all wobbly!
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