Minus one week and two days, to be precise. Next Wednesday our time, North Carolina Democrats will elect 115 delegates, 77 by district-level proportional representation and 38 by statewide PR*. Indiana will elect 72 delegates, 47 by district-level and 25 statewide. Both are primaries, which have been doing better for Hillary Clinton that caucuses. However, the polls have Barack Obama ahead in both states – commandingly so in North Carolina (51.3 per cent to 35.8 per cent, according to Real Clear Politics’ fortnight average), narrowly in Indiana (46.3 per cent to 43.3 per cent). North Carolina will have a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats; Indiana will have an open primary, meaning all voters can participate. And let us not forget Thursday’s caucuses for the Pacific island of Guam, at which three delegates will be selected by a closed caucus.
* Correct me if I’m wrong here (or anywhere else), somebody.
822 Comments
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Catrina @ 644 I hope that’s an irony button that’s missing
642 Pauline
“The evidence is Wright is a whaco and a moron with a Uni degree to fluff up his extemist racial & anti American views , religious terrorism of the mainstream beliefs”
You’re such a sponge of the right wing propogandists, Ron. Just soak it up and spew it out. Brain in neutral as usual. Blinded by your inferiority complex and your bigotry.
As for publicly supporting Wright – unlike you, I analysed what he said and found the MSM frenzy to be wanting. I still do. It had nothing to do with Obama. Still doesn’t.
What does this mean? “…your ‘elitist’ based Candidate who is one of yous (sic).” Are you saying that all Obama supporters are ‘elitists’? Can you not see, Ron, that this the bigotry I speak of? How dare you damn a substantial section of a community becaue their views differ from yours. How do you define ‘elitist’? All your rants reveal is your own inferiority complex. I imagine that life hasn’t treated you well and you so deeply resent those who have struggled to better themselves – particularly those who have worked hard and sacrificed lots to gain a uni education. So you come here and let off steam because this is the only place in your life where someone will listen to you. That’s just sad Ron.
As for the polls I quote, they’re not ‘Ferny’s’ – they’re RCP averages – and they’re not looking good for Obama. Yet I report them anyway. No point in hiding from the obvious. I call it as it is – and it’s grim right now.
One more thing – you will receive more civilised responses if you stop lacing your posts with bigoted invective. It’s not necessary.
#650 – [I go all wobbly!] – dont fall over.
Wouldn’t touch Obama with a ten foot pole? Watch the SDs squeal.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/us/politics/01clinton.html?_r=1&ref=politics&pagewanted=print
Hear Hear Ferny, 2 to Ferny – 0 to Ron
For those rightfully in awe at the chutzpah ofAhmed Chalabi, the fact that he’s still walking defies all the rules of Hardball politics. However one views his m.o., The Big A is one hell of an Operator in the game of World Championship Schmoozing. Uncle Ahmed played the PNAC-people off a break, as if they were a bunch of side-walk schmendricks!
The Iraq Fiasco is going to be right up there among the “Why I voted for Obama” responses in exit polls come November.
http://www.trueblueliberal.com/2008/04/30/chalabi-rand-and-the-iraq-war/
655
Enemy Combatant
Good ole’ Acky, he’s Bush’s Rasputin, spinning and weaving his unctious spell on tje administration with his proxy Neocons and the Zionist party of Washington.
Did you know he once escaped Jordan after the ‘collapse’ of his Petra Bank in the boot of a Mercedes? He’s still, as far as I know, under a considerable penal sentence in that country. (The bank funds all got ‘lent’ to his family and cronies, surprise, surprise).
There’s no flies on Acky. He got waltzed into the Pentagon with a secret handsign from some of his Zioncon mates, where he got access to the vital secret that they’d cracked the Iranian secret service codes.
Acky soon after makes a flight to Tehran and the codes mysteriously got changed! LOL
It was about that time that the CIA raided his Baghdad digs and threatened him with a bit of ‘not punishment’! And what a bummer, they cut of his US pocket money (CIA spent many millions on his exile group)
Yep, he’s a smooth operator, and there are 4,000 dead and tens of thousands of maimed US troops to testify to what a ‘heck of guy’ old Acky is!
Oh. for those who may not know (is there anyone left??), it was virtually the sole doing of Chalabi that all that stuff that Colin Powell told the UN was a complete heap of crap.
They should have just ‘not punished’ Chalabi. He could have told them in under 5 minutes it was a load of tripe. He, afterall, sold it to them.
Yes we can can, with a little help from friends the Obamacans but look out for the Limbacans!
“We have four new primary polls today. A Howey-Guage poll shows Indiana to be a statistical tie, different from yesterday’s SurveyUSA poll putting Clinton ahead by 9%. The difference in these polls is often how hard the pollster pushes the undecideds to make a choice. Also noteworthy is the fact Democrats are split evenly 47% to 47% so three other groups may ultimately determine the winner here and possibly the nominee. First, independents are allowed to vote in the Democratic primary, and in previous states they have gone strongly for Obama. Second, there what are called “Obamacans,” Republicans deeply disturbed by what the party of Eisenhower, Goldwater, and Reagan has become and think a big loss in November may help the party get back to its fundamental principles. Finally, we have the Limbacans, Republicans who support McCain and at the incessant urging of Rush Limbaugh are going to vote for Hillary Clinton because they perceive her to be the weaker candidate in November. This is an interesting group because Democrats are debating endlessly about which of their candidates is stronger, but Republicans have no doubt: Obama is the one they fear. They don’t want the election to become a contest between young and old (like 1960).”
electoral-vote.com
Yeah, Kiri, he’s got a load of dead Iraqis on his conscience, if it’s not yet vestigal. ‘Tis his “Trade-Craft”, not his morality which astouds me. Chalabi is a Kaiser amongst con-men.
As your attorney, Kirri, I advise you to not play cards with this man!
658
Enemy Combatant
I have to say he’s fascinated me for quite a while. The moot point ultimately raises its ugly head: Did Ahmed play the Neocons or did the Neocons play Ahmed? Or, alternatively, was it the symbiosis of equals.
It’s a tape worm eating itself, a conundrum, an impossible but fascinating contortion of nature, and yet…there it is.
Some interesting stats on early voting in NC. The above mentioned poll with Hillary up samples 25% black voters. But early voting indicates that percentage will be way higher:
‘a total of 175,238 early ballots cast for the May 6 Democratic primary, those numbers have changed slightly, with the Black percentage rising to 38.5% and the White dropping to 58.1%. Most pollsters are estimating a minority turnout of 33%, but it remains to be seen whether election day turnout matches early voter demographics. The minority percentage has actually been increasing slightly as early voting has progressed in NC.’
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/30/14835/7007/1021/506480
The whole article is worth a look – it is interesting. There are also big numbers for white women (about 1/3). No mention of age – there are a few big college towns in NC.
This is also a huge number of early votes – the same article quotes historical voting numbers ‘544,922 in 2000 and 691,866 in 1992. (No primary was held in 2004, we had a caucus).’ And about a million expected this year.
And some analysis of the first post Wright 2 poll, about candidate vulnerabilities, with numbers and implications for their negatives. And guess what???:
‘”Obama/bitter” and “Obama/values” rank just fifth and sixth on the list, respectively. Instead, the issue that concerns the voters the most is “Clinton/flip-flops”. That is followed by two McCain issues — his closeness with George W. Bush and his own flip-flops (to its credit, MSNBC did report the Bush result on air) — and then another Clinton (”Clinton/honesty”) before we get to the first two Obama issues. Meanwhile, the two issues that strike me as unambiguously being cheap shots — “McCain/age” and “Obama/patriotism” — are of very little concern to voters.’
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/04/im-concerned.html
Finns, GG and Ron, I do so admire your ‘Audacity of Hope’ in maintaining an alternate minority view of the US Democratic Party primaries, here at PB. *hugs* for the strength of your convictions and opinions. I will admit to being a coward, I can only cope with the pile-on in very small widely spaced doses.
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But anyway, FWIW, if you liked Hillary’s Fox interview, you might like the follow-up one with the Indianapolis Star as well, which followed it at: http://anglachelg.blogspot.com
(you will need to click the ‘On Demand’ button for the vid-clip to play at:
http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/4/29/19464/6850
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629 Ferny Grover Says: “It’s interesting that the polls can change so quickly in the US”.
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The simplest reason for this Ferny, is the large differences in methodology used between different polling orgs, particularly the models and assumptions used to base estimates of turn-out. Have to also look at the validity of the cross-tabs. eg – the latest NC poll with Hillary leading IMHO is way off-base, because they have underestimated A-A turnout, and only had 5 individuals as their sample to estimate the Hispanic vote. I suspect Obama will win by double-digits, if you use SUSA’s methodology on those demographics. But to reverse the Obama supporters rhetoric from Pennsylvania, I think the benchmark should be set at 20% for Obama, or its a loss, even if he comes in at 19.21358% *chuckle*
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Back to US polls though, the average of all polls that RCP uses, is not very valid, because the different pollsters use different methodology. Its comparing apples with oranges. National polls in the US are even more meaningless, because national polling hides very large State-based spikes and dips.
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eg. Californians, are a fairly laid-back, easy-going cool bunch, they would *shrug* off anything to do with Wright, Ayers etc. Alfred E Neumann, What Me Worry? Pass the joint dude. But in chunks of the mid-west and south? It goes over like the Hindenberg. One of the GOP NC & Mississippi ads for local downticket races even mentions something like “That might be groovy in California, but not for us”. Different states, different countries, different cultures. So much for Obama, being the “Great Uniter” LOL
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Anyway, because the population of states like California, would largely outweigh the smaller conservative state pockets, national polls tend to wash out any local dips and spikes. Some regions it may have made him more popular, others much less popular, so they often balance out on a national level. But the GE, is won by individual states which are not proportional to national population. Demographics and economies aren’t uniform across the country either. Rich urban college-educated white-collar populations aren’t feeling the economic recession, anywhere near as much as the folk in the mid-west, rust-belt and south are.
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One of the better ones I’ve found, is to compare like with like, eg compare SUSA polls with other SUSA polls, or pollster with pollster, if you can be sure they use the same methodology and assumptions each time. Corrente blog had some recent posts doing “apples with apples” poll comparisons.
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As for Hillary’s gas-tax holiday thing. Who blamed Rudd when he was Opposition Leader last year caving in on the NT Intervention? Or on having to promise some tax-cuts, with a caveat, following Howard’s election promise of the same? Clinton is in the same position as Rudd was, she is a US Senator in Opposition, she will have to vote on the gas-tax holiday bill that McCain is introducing into Congress under a Bush/Cheney Executive.
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There is no doubt it will pass, with/without her Senate vote, because the people will demand it, same as Aussies wanted their tax-cuts, baby-bonuses, rebates for X, Y and Z etc. So, just like Rudd, she has promised it will go ahead, BUT with a caveat on the oil companies to fund it. And she will fight on the Senate floor for it too, as she has so often done in her career to date. I’m shocked Obama has said he will vote “No”, it must be one of the very few times he’s taken a stand on anything. He often abstains from voting on anything even remotely controversial. The GOP dont have to swift-boat him on Wright or Ayers, they don’t even need to get nasty at all, they can just highlight his complete lack of any resume or record. But they’ll do the nasty stuff, just for the sheer fun of it.
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Let the poor man eat his waffle in peace. I feel sorry for him, and maybe he will get some sympathy votes in the remaining primaries?
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anyway, have a good one bludgers, cya next time I pop in!
661 Pancho
If the Obama negatives are only 5th and 6th on the list, then what has caused his plummet from grace in the polls?
Bit of mutual back-scratching for sure, Kirri, between Ahmed and The WHIGs (White House Iraq Group) who were all card-carrying PNAC-people anyway. I rememeber when they were all warbling Ahmed’s praises, as the Go-To Guy for all things I-raqi.
When Obi gets in, plenty of this doo-doo’s gonna hit the drive shaft. The Dems would have The House, The Senate and the Presidency. That’s a start. Enough for getting some Senate Inquiries underway. However, SCOTUS with Scalia at the helm could prove problematical down the track.
663 Ferny
Those “how important is an issue” polls are a crock of sh*t. They are the ultimate measure of the Bradley effect. Who in their right mind would honestly admit they see Macca as too old or admit they are not open-minded about Wright and bitter? (Well I can think of one brave soul.)
But of course anyone is happy to say they don’t like lying and flip-flopping. While I don’t agree with Ron, at least he is being honest, which is more than the people taking that survey were.
“Finns, GG and Ron, I do so admire your ‘Audacity of Hope’ in maintaining an alternate minority view of the US Democratic Party primaries, here at PB. *hugs* for the strength of your convictions and opinions.”
Similar to The Blue Max in that it acknowledges extreme bravery under “combat conditions”, The Blue Rain is awarded to conservative bloggers who display extraordinary courage and tenacity under fire from Obama-Lovin’ Leftoids.
Congratulations, boys. This must be quite an honour for you.
Ferny
#652
You may have partly misundertood how US POTUS elections operate. McCain & Hillary are already known at POTUS level scrutiny but Obama was not. When the scrutiny has been put on Obama he has crumbled with ‘gaffe’ disease. Then with 7ups Friscogate (with ‘bitter’ one of the 7 slurs) demonstrating not only is he a ‘liberal’ but an elitist’ (holding snoby ‘superiority’ views over all other community groups)
But worse , it has been found his political close associates are a declared terrorist in Bill Sayers (in whose home Obama went to launch his political career) and a whaco moron Pastor who sprouts divisive racial and appalling anti American views.
The 3 Amigos criticised Obama for continuing to attend this nuty Pastor crazy sermons for 20 years , privately diagreeing but remaing silent & still returning
You invested your (now partly lost) political credibilty , as did Obama on his Philly speech and you & other Obamabots supported Wright. Why , because Obama at Philly said Wright was his, inspiration , his family Uncle , his friend , his Marriage Minister , his kids baptizer and outrageous of all his Mentor and the base of his racial belief system . ie ‘a more complete union’ message had it genisis in Wrights teachings & is that message is tainted and in tatters
NOW that this fool Pastor has ‘outed’ himself on TV for the whaco he is, and Obama has sort of ‘disowned’ him (100% will be in mark vii) so your prior public unqualified defence of Wright (to be overgenerous) is shown as unobjectively based & blind foolishness for Obama
That is entirely your fault , not mine. What has upset you & Obamabots is you’ve been proven so wrong , and so unqualifiably wrong about Wright, & Obama as part of him. And so wrong publicly from the TV footage of Obama & Wrights own mouths, that your normal excuses don’t cut of ‘they didn’t say that’ or ‘the words are not in context’.
As to ‘elitists’ the public humiliation of being proven wrong must be insufferable. Obama will be feeling this now , hence FINNS remarks of him being
grumpy , testy and ‘bitter’. An ‘elitist’-view based Obamabot feeling similarly.
An ‘elitist’ is a state of mind , irrespective of their poor or otherwise upbringing
& could be irrelevant of Parents or friends or voting habits or occupation but ususally originates from academia or wealth, and the Victor Chang’s , Dick Smith’s & Gov Gen William Dean are their antithisis whilst John Kerr & Turnbull are
You’ve blatantly ignored my previous blogs. Obama supporters here are either ‘reality’ tell it frankly as it is , core Obama supporters Intellectually based , Obambots and finally ‘elitist’-view based Obamabots. Four main groups amongst you 26 lot. Sometimes I’m remiss by addressing you all as one. But conciseness helps with 3 amigos vs 26
As to Polls , my #625 demonstrated the total irrelevancy of the Polls of the ‘faithful’ you quote vs the Polls you refuse to quote. As you guys won’t fess up to the Pastor as an issue , you’ve failed to realise a collision of the Pastor to affected other psephological factors causing the current adverse Obama Polls & so there is actual natural room for some Obama bounce back subject to the 2 candidates & other short term political actions
Ron
This might not be the most politic thing to say but I was under the impression Dick Smith and Victor Chang were/are complete knobs. I’m not saying they did a lot of great things but their interpersonal skills are severely sub-optimal. I could be wrong but…
The Finns your constant use of the suffix gate is so irritating. Do you think that adding gate to everything makes it important? Well how about Delusiongate- a candidate being deluded that they will win despite all the numbers being against them??
Your analysis makes Dennis Shanahan seem balanced. Well done
Diogenes ,
unfortunately ther is a difference between a knob and ‘elitist’ and Chang may have been the former but I can see , not the latter
Ron
Agree neither were elitist. Fred Hollows was evidently the same.
#669 – what about a Parrotgate then?
#662 – Rain – like our gal, we are tough, fighter, and persistent. And we dont need the Kumbaya bit like Obama and the Obamabots here.
Maybe we could have a whip ’round to see if we can get Ron a 50 Year supply of full-stops. Some terrific deals going down on E-Bay at the present time, I hear. In his last missive (#667), Ron has a 20% strike-rate for periods at the end of each of his ten paragraphs. He just keeps running out of them all the time, that’s all. Sorta thing that could happen to anyone, any old time. No worries,….BUT,
With a 50 Year Supply of full-stops, Ron, you could tap out them li’l’ black dots like there were no tomorrows:)
Even the semi-literate would thank you for it, mate.
Your psephological and sociological obsevations, nevertheless Ron, remain at the cutting edge of global analysis. Even better when you don’t dress them in punctuational Op-Shop chic!
Betfair Odds again:
Hillary has moved into $1.23 in Indiana. Obama is now paying $4.
Obama is stead at $1.08 in NC.
In the overall stakes of Democratic Candidate, Clinton has moved in from $6 to $4. (Or a one in three chance of her being the nominee).
Clinton SD switches to Obama.
“A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to “heal the rift in our party” and unite behind the Illinois senator.
Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge others to support Sen. Obama in Tuesday’s primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race.
He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120962832953558997.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_leftbox
Mr Andrew’s defection takes Clinton’s SD lead to 19. Obama has netted 8 SD’s this week to Hillary’s 3.
Ferny
#673
My blog is so long with so many opinions stated , there is plenty for you to intellectually disagree with. Please do
As to being potentially banned , your #652 should be used by you as a model to stick within and you’ll have obviously no problem and William in any event has
always been fair even to a couple of blogers who were quite insulting to him
There are substantive political issues raised in the at the min. first 60% and the last par. re current Obama polling
If anybody thinks the Pastor will now go away quietly. Have another think.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/30/AR2008043003251_pf.html
Let me remind you again what the Pastor said yesterday at NCP:
REVEREND WRIGHT: And I said to Barack Obama, last year, “If you get elected, November the 5th, I’m coming after you, because you’ll be representing a government whose policies grind under people.” All right? It’s about policy, not the American people.]
He thinks he got Obama in his pocket. An impotent POTUS. It must have sent shiver down the spine of of the non Black Americans.
FINNS
#678
“He thinks he got Obama in his pocket.”
Absolutely , which is why Wright said on TV 29/4/08 where he effectively accused Obama of lying :
“We both know that if Senator Obama did not say what he said, he would never get elected.” Politicians say what they say and do what they do based on electability, based on sound bites, based on polls — Huffington, whoever’s doing the polls.”
BEFORE Obama delivered his Philly speech it looks llike Obama gave him ‘wink and a nod’ to say I’m going to condemn som eof your comments but not say which and then ‘praise’ you. And Obama did both. What has upset Wright is the media have still concentrated on the former (divisive words) and forgotten the ‘praise’ of Wright Obama had said
Finns, you have an advantage over me, Obamabots will *tolerate* you guys,
I’d be symbolically burned at the stake!
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on the Kumbaya theme -
that was my very first *snort* and coffee-spill over my brand new carpets, (G-D that Man *grrr*) couple months ago, watching Obama go, umm..uhhh..uhh.. umm.. something about, umm..uhh..uhh.. sitting down and talking through the issues with all sides, uhh..uhh..uhh..cos he can see all sides, you know, now listen…uhh.. uhh..listen , uhh..uhh.. would appoint Republicans in his Cabinet and.. and I had these visions of the US congress being run like a Focus Group, or new age workshop.
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and *oooops*… my first coffee stain on my brand new carpets resulted.
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So Ferny, 11 SDs have declard this week, that’s eleven less in the pool from which the candidates can draw and and extra 8 votes from those will be required by HRC to stem this week’s bleed so far.
Still, Obi’s got to put up a good show in IA. He could put HRC away early with even the tiniest of wins there. B.S. Fairman’s odds from betfair indicate that it’s a long shot win, but Obi going down by more than 5 points in IA will make it more difficult for him to close the deal.
Perception-wise.
The prospect of another month of bloody Dem attrition looms disasterously unless the nominee is annointed after next Tuesday. Enough is enough. Time for “all for one and one for all”. Divided, they will almost certainly fall.
Rain
#658
“I’d be symbolically burned at the stake!”
Rain , you are in no danger from the Obamabots whose strongest weapon is a ‘dreamy’ message which has a blank page. Our Candidate is the only one with ‘ticker’ to make hard decisions. They will love your contributions
#680 – Rain – [Obamabots will *tolerate* you guys] – are u kidding me. They tried to run us out of town and hunt us down like a wolf pack. It is only because of the strength of our intellectual argument that created the firewall.
Hey Rain, a song for u from Jose, with every drop of Rain, i can hear you call.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=raEvjT422sk
Ron,
My 652 troubled me and is, in fact, not a model I’d like to stick within. Its tone was unnecessarily personal and for that I apologise.
I’d suggest, however, that you abandon the blanket attacks on those you see as ‘elitist’. Your tone diminishes you and is unnecessary. I really don’t know anyone’s circumstances here but I’m sure many are just battlers like you – whether they have degrees or not, or enjoy lattes or not, or support Obama or not. Certainly, the majority here are committed to the principles of social democracy, some a little more to the right and others a little more to the left, but most would see ourselves as left of centre.
Some of us see in Obama a chance to break from the past, which has seen democracy degenerate into the politics of self interest and of vested interests. The desire for a return to principled leadership doesn’t make us ‘elitist’ or foolish or dreamers. The reasons are well considered, and the desire for change is growing in western democracies. Others on here take a different view finding comfort in Hillary and the known quantity of the Clinton brand.
The reasons we differ are the focus of our debates, but we really should take care when our leisurely discussions and political joustings become a reason for belittling each other.
Why EC ,
Where is that genorosity of spirit. This may cause me to write another ‘ditty’
#681
As to your whole blog #681 devoted to my english inadequacy , its similar to that dylixia and I’d have thought such comments would come from a Conservative and not an equity/disadvantaged thinking based Labor person
#674
“The Blue Rain is awarded to conservative bloggers who display extraordinary courage and tenacity under fire from Obama-Lovin’ Leftoids.”
Had you read my ‘universal healthcare blogs or go back and look at my detailed #625 blog today I’ve discussed on this site Labor based policys and NO ONE
from the Obama supporters ever has , so any Independent person looking at this site would know I support Labor policys nad would doubt your colleagues do
Ron, [Why EC , Where is that genorosity of spirit. This may cause me to write another ‘ditty’ ] – let me help
You got a lotta nerve
To say you are my friend
When I was down
You just stood there grinning
You got a lotta nerve
To say you got a helping hand to lend
You just want to be on
The side that’s winning
(B Dylan)
It’s good night from him and good night from me.
676
Ferny Grover
Another sad and deluded Super, Ferny. Too gutless to admit he actually wants to vote against the tinted candidate because he’d just die from embarrasment to be seen as a racist.
What will these spineless creatures not do to hide their real white supremicist affiliations? And what a tragic pyschological condition where they preference the weakest candidate out of fear of criticism, the horror to be actually caught out as the deep racists they so obviously are, deep down.
It’s right up there in severity as people who cross dress so they aren’t caught as being homophobes!
Tragic, Ferny, just tragic. They need help, at PCA! (Political Correctness Anonymous).
FG @ 676 CNN’s take
(CNN) — The Obama campaign announced Thursday that former Democratic National Committee Chairman Joe Andrew — who was appointed to that post in 1999 by then-President Clinton — is withdrawing his endorsement of Hillary Clinton, and backing Barack Obama instead.
The campaign said Andrew would appear at a 10 a.m. press conference at its state headquarters in Indianapolis, then join campaign manager David Plouffe on a conference call with reporters.
“Many will ask, why now? Why, with several primaries still remaining, with Senator Clinton just winning Pennsylvania, with my friend Evan Bayh working hard to make sure Senator Clinton wins Indiana, why switch now? Why call for super delegates to come together now to constructively pick a president?” said Andrew in a letter released Thursday.
“The simple answer is that while the timing is hard for me personally, it is best for America. We simply cannot wait any longer, nor can we let this race fall any lower and still hope to win in November. June or July may be too late. The time to act is now.”
The Indiana superdelegate served as party chairman from 1999 through 2001. He had endorsed Hillary Clinton last year, on the day she officially announced her White House bid.
ouch
Codger and KR: Obama needs a couple more like Andrew to shift the momentum before Tuesday. It’s been a disastrous week for Obama, but a very good week in terms of SD’s to his cause.
Strange times
689
Ferny Grover
Nobody flies too close to the sun for long, and especially in politics, and especially in this environment. I think Brooks has it about right, there’s a demographic/education divide and unfortunately for the Dems they have two fairly close candidates of high calibre.
That’s a problem the Republicans could only dream of!
If Wright plays big on Faux News that probably means the Republican audience is getting a feed, but that Supers are still moving Obama’s way means that the real game has not yet begun. But you can bet they’re not obsessed with who’s watching Faux news.
It’s getting interesting.
Thnx Ron, I do enjoy some of the muzak jokes for Obama, some of which I’ve only found here. Like the Beatles ‘you’ve got to carry that weight’.
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Talking of ‘Duelling Polls’ though, Bill, Big Dawg Bubba, has come out of his exile recently to stump for Hillary, and I saw a poll questioning whether voters thought he was hurting her campaign. Apparently, in that poll, his popularity has bounced back to around 65%, which was exactly where it was when he left office.
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Like Chucky.. He’s Baacckk!
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And Clinton voters, admitting in polls, to refuse to vote for Obama in November if he is the nominee has gone up again since Pennslyvania.
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Obama may be the media darling, may even be the Party’s darling, but Hillary is the Voter’s Darling.
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Check out Massachusetts polling, one branch of my partner’s family are from there. Massachusetts Senators Kennedy, Kerry and Deval Patrick (the mentor with the wonderful Hopey/Changey speeches and dream-time campaign rhetori style) All endorsed Obama early on, but those three are really disliked locally in their home state – they story is, they were sucked in by Deval Patrick’s style and awe inspiring campaign speeches, but he has done SFA, sits on his butt and snores, lets the Republican Opposition just run it, he’s just a puppet. Its only that there are no better Dem candidates, that are willing to run against them in that state.
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Hillary won Mass strong, so much for those endorsements, huh? She also got several of the other Kennedy’s like Bobby Jnr, bit of a rift in the Kennedy clan?
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but look at the polling trends of match-ups with McCain and Obama since Super-T. Traditionally its a safe small blue state – but, Obama puts it in play against McCain??? thats how much those Dem voters think of those particular super-delegate endorsements, and just how “loyal” they are to the Party dictating. Sure obama ‘expands the map’ into red states, (although after Wright – not so sure about that anymore, either) but he is also ‘expanding the map’ by threatening a few small safe blue states.
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Then check Elizabeth Edwards (John Edwards wife) editorial in the Times or WaPo on the uselessness of endorsements. On Obama’s side, he gets most of the yuckiest DINOs (Democrats-In-Name-Only) or those Dems that only got their seats because there was nobody better to choose from. Gore lost his own home state in 2000, if he’d won his own home state, he would not have needed Florida to win that election. Take home message, from 30 years or more – Dont’ take US Dem voters for granted.
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So there’s a number of chinks in Obama’s electability in November, and taking for granted the “loyalty” of Democrat voters in key states, is a dangerous risk for the DNC to take.
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If the Super-Dels let Obama steal the nomination, they are just as gutless as he is, and they deserve to lose, and they know it, I’m not sure they care much anyway, its safer to whinge and whine from Opposition. The country is in such a mess, who wants to do the real work? Easier to sit all nice and comfy in Opposition and just spout naughty nasty words at the Republicans across the aisle.
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Even after 2006, when they won their congressional majority (a massive national effort by a lot of grass-roots,from coast to coast) to take on Bush – and what did they do? Rolled over and played dead – “Impeachment is off the table”. WTF? Dean has disappointed a lot this year, he was very, very popular in 2004, was the early primary front-runner like Obama, they called themselves Deaniacs, with the infamous ‘Dean Scream’, to take back the WH and take out Bush – but, they don’t like him so much anymore. Another gutless wonder.
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Hello Rain
thanks , a wealth of info from the US you bring from America & the Kennedy clan.
you say “The country is in such a mess, who wants to do the real work?”
I agree ,its not speechs that will change the US but fair dinkum practacle equity based policys and if you get a chance tomorrow look at my #625 blog today on Hillary vs that neocon Bill O’Reilly on Fox. Lots of REAL equity & social policys which Obama won’t tackle. She is prepared to take on the ‘establishment and O’Reilly kept saying thats ’socialist’ and she kept saying I don’t care what label you call it its fair to th average American and I’ll do it. enjoyed your post friend
A ditty , for the young at heart
A new tale from old must be told
for the blogosphere byte scribes,
to record , absorb & pass on
so the cyba pages are never blank,
of the enemy bloger once frustrated
but then satisfied by partner wise,
but no, the dreaded curse returned
no genorosity was now forever seen,
the ‘elitist’ hand , the virus full stops
and more , a 50 year supply to boot,
for dylixic to practice carry & use
and not a passing thought was given
of other past days and those bad nites,
when prioritys of inner satisfaction
reigned over those fullstop hordes,
and should a wise partner of hope
remind one of the passion choice,
as this was the deal , the nites offered
in lieu of grandeur of fullstops,
as the partner reminds the message
of Uncle Ron the simplicity of life,
the energy of blogs of fullstops
wasted against the passion on offer,
as partners guarantees are only now assured
with the partner & the uncle now good friends.
From The Page (Time)
This, together with the switch by Joe Andrew from Clinton to Obama (mentioned a couple of times above) brings the DCW difference to 16 advantage Clinton.
Clinton: 260
Obama: 244
Adding in the Pelosi club, Obama gains 5 and Clinton looses 1 bringing the total to 259/249 dropping the Clinton lead down to 10.
It is absolutely laughable how much Faux News is trying to talk Hillary Clinton up.
They are on a full court press trying to boost her up.
Embarrassing that this is the depths the Clinton Powerhouse have sunk to.
Their last bastion of support is the cretins at Fox News.
Superdelegate John Olsen backs Clinton pushing out the formal DNC Clinton advantage to 17 (11 when applying the Pelosi Club).
Hillary Clinton NY add-on delegates (Andrew Cuomo, Tom DiNapoli, Virginia Fields, Carmen Arroyo) change the DNW numbers and pushes Clinton’s lead back to 21. There are 3 supers and-on delegates from Illinois in the pipeline for Obama that will become official on the 5 May so this jump is somewhat temporary.
In the meantime – if you have some time to spare, the open letter from Joe Andrews is an interesting read. It’s about 6 pages in length but is worth reviewing all the same as it is a opportunity to look inside the the mind of a super delegate. What makes this even more interesting is the stimulus behind the switch: (a) Obama position on the petrol holiday; and (b) Obama’s handling of the Wright saga.
http://www.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/joeandrew_obama.pdf
“The trickle of supers is telling, though: It shows that the worst Wright week ever has not yet been enough to drive superdelegates away from Obama.” (slate.)
and therein lies the rub.
The real question today is whether the same response to Wright will happen again – he hits Obama for a 6 , but it only lasts for a shorttime. And after a while it is possible that voters will be bored to tears with the pastorsauce crap. Or, converesely the Patriotism question will really take hold and Obama is gone – but then again one would hope that there are at least 2 neurones still firing in the US and it is seen for the beatup it is.
If not… back to the same old shit with Mc/Clinton.
Just read Joe Andrew’s letter.
Bang on.
Jen at 698
In my opinion the Wright use-by-date is up there on the calender beside the fridge. The US MSM will play on this like raw flesh because its just a ratings opportunity for the moment but every indication is that it is on the drama is on a downward trend. We are witnessing the fact that super delegates are not divorced from political realities, and in fact, in the case of Joe Andrews, the way in which Obama handled the Wright episode was one of the tripping factors in the defection. In other words – Obama has been put in a difficult place and the story emerging is that Obama is winning where it matters – super delegate commitments.
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