I wonder if a portion of the inner city, affluent Green vote is actually due to Liberal voters who vote tactically against Labor. They know the Liberals can’t win, and the party puts zero effort into these seats, so register their anti-Labor protest in this manner.

I’m thinking of Wenworth at the last election where the Liberals got a substantial hike in their vote around Darlinghurst and Paddington which were previously in ultra-safe Sydney. Clearly, when the party actively campaigned and gave them a genuine option, they were prepared to vote Liberal. It’s possible that areas like Randwick, Clovelly, Bondi and Coogee could see a similar shift if the party got its act together.

“In the end Mr Costa took to the stage on Saturday. His arms were flailing, his voice rising. On ABC TV yesterday it was referred to as a “Mussolini-like” performance. The vote went 702 votes to 107 against him.

“Just before the negotiations ended, Mr Tripodi, outside the meeting room, turned to the assembled unionists and said: “We’re dead, anyway.”

“Asked whether Mr Tripodi was referring to the union or the Government, a union source said: “I think he meant the whole shebang, the conference, the party, the lot.”

Gotta love “Mussolini-like performance” and Tripodi’s commentary on the NSW ALP…

Gotta say, he didn’t have much choice.

But I don’t know Botany council area that well. Is it really demographically similar to the councils around it? I know a lot of its territory is covered by the port and the airport, but is it’s population undergoing the same gentrification as those around it?

And yes the Greens should run in Botany…finding candidates may be the issue of course, as less than 10% means its a tough area to find good candidates to stand as a Green!

As for Heffron, if the Greens have their heads screwed on, they will contest Botany Bay Council rather than leave the Hoenig Labor team to have another walkover. Botany Bay Council is the only Sydney council that doesn’t use Proportional Representation. But it was also the Heffron booths in Botany Bay where the Greens got less than 10% in 2007, where their vote was above 30% in the more gentrified areas from Erskineville through St Peters and Alexandria to parts of Redfern.

It’s the same pattern in Marrickville. The Green vote dominates around Newtown, but areas in the west of the electorate that have not been less gentrified see Labor still dominating over the Greens.

It will be interesting to see how Marrickville Council goes in September. Labor lost control because of a botched attempt to gerrymander the ward boundaries. Labor had the highest vote, but the Greens got more seats.

So, you are of course right, in that the election will be won and lost in the outer-urban and regional-urban seats on the Central Coast, but the shift in voting in the inner-city and east could open up new possibilities for both Libs and Greens – if they are prepared to grasp them.