Comments on: Huon and Rosevears live

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Tue, 06 May 2008 14:57:50 +0000

Re #20 – yes, Blackmans Bay was +19 on the state election result which was one of the largest such gaps. Whether it is a pattern of disenchantment with Labor or a pattern of surge for the Greens at the expense of both major parties (and suspected closet supporters thereof) remains to be seen.

An alternative is that more Labor voters are preferencing the Greens because the word is out among them that Harriss is a closet Liberal, but I doubt it: that didn’t apply against Wilkinson last year, and much the same is often said about him.

Another possibility is that Harriss didn’t campaign all that hard, but if that’s so then again, that also applies to Wilkinson.

By: Simon Baptist

Simon Baptist — Tue, 06 May 2008 12:35:19 +0000

The Blackmans Bay result is also worth a mention. I scrutineered at this booth in the last Huon election – the Greens plus Flora Fox received around 20% of this booth then (in a race against Harriss and a Labour candidate) – so the increase to just over 40% is bigger than you’d expect from the lack of a Labour candidate alone. This is one of the bigger Franklin booths, and one that has been average but not great for the Greens in the past. It seems that most of Fran Bladel’s vote has gone to the Greens here – I wonder if this might be a forebear of a pattern of Labour disenchantment we might see elsewhere?

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Sun, 04 May 2008 12:15:53 +0000

Greg Hall used to be Mayor of Meander Valley Council before he was elected to the Upper House, and lists his former occupations as “Public Servant; Soldier; Farmer”.

By: Tassieannie

Tassieannie — Sun, 04 May 2008 09:55:58 +0000

Kevin, what a sad state of affairs that a fairly involved political onlooker like me has barely heard of several of those people.

Who on earth is Greg Hall, for example? What do they do to earn their living?

By: Kevin Bonham

Kevin Bonham — Sun, 04 May 2008 03:41:19 +0000

Typically when an MLC retires there is a big bunfight for their seat, often with several candidates contesting and the winner polling only 30% or so (if that). Then after that the incumbent can comfortably retain the seat more or less forever unless they are perceived to be doing nothing or to have too much on their plate, in which case they can be knocked off by a sufficiently high-profile opponent.

Wellington (as it is now known, although the name may soon revert to Hobart) is the big one for Green chances of ever breaking into the Upper House – the current redistribution is likely to make it easily the greenest of the seats and knock at least four points off Labor’s margin in it. I’m not sure how long Doug Parkinson intends holding this seat (it’s next up in 2012) but whenever he steps down Labor will need to find a strong replacement to be sure of holding off the Greens in the seat.

By: Muskiemp

Muskiemp — Sat, 03 May 2008 22:00:09 +0000

Molesworth,
you’re not allowed to distribute how to votes (or other election material) at all on polling day.

I wish that was the case in all elections Australia wide.

By: Molesworth

Molesworth — Sat, 03 May 2008 13:36:41 +0000

Josh, actually that last bit of mine is wrong (I just got paranoid and went and checked). You’re not allowed to canvass for votes within 100 metres of a polling booth and you’re not allowed to distribute how to votes (or other election material) at all on polling day.

By: Molesworth

Molesworth — Sat, 03 May 2008 13:02:12 +0000

Ben, I suspect part of the Green strategy in seats like Huon is to get people used to voting Green and thereby build their House of Assembly vote. It doesn’t seem like a bad strategy either – a whole bunch of people voted Green for the first time today and it will now be just that little bit easier for some to do the same in a statewide election. Maybe not a huge effect, but worth running a candidate for.

It’s hard to see them ever winning Huon, even in an open election, unless the demographics change quite a bit or they get lucky in a split field with some weird preference flows. But then, I wouldn’t have expected them to get the result they did tonight. And Wellington is definitely another matter, as others have said.

Josh, in Tasmanian state elections you’re not allowed to hand out how to votes within 100 metres of a polling booth, which means that not even the major parties bother.

By: Ben Raue

Ben Raue — Sat, 03 May 2008 11:16:12 +0000

Could the Greens strategy with running in all these seats is to set them up for when these independents retire? What happens when an independent MLC retires? Does it become a free-for-all?

By: Josh WK

Josh WK — Sat, 03 May 2008 10:51:28 +0000

Interesting! Prepolls seem to have split 57-43 Harriss-Rickards, not too bad for the Greens, though against an Independent it’s hard to say how many people could be mobilised for pre-poll booth staffing duties. Anyone in Huon who can comment on if Harriss had many volunteers before today, or even today at the smaller booths around the Channel and on Bruny?

The more interesting point is that, even including those votes and postals, it’s still 62-38. Not bad at all for the TasGs.