Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:42 am |Permalink
Back from the taxi run to find on the last thread some more interst comments
FERNY
#684 last line
After you reading Catrina #819 and Kirri #814 who are your colleagues from whom I assume you are unwilling to distance yourself , I have now the option
of using their model to other blogers seeing its condoned , since conviction is not an issue but standards were made an issue
Kirri
#809
“The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT,..’
Ron says: this is Kirri back peddling ,”distancing” himself from his previous Pastor
remarks. Kirri is now (mark/K1) ‘disowning’ the Pastor whose NOW unlike Obama
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:58 am |Permalink
When a new thread starts, just for appearance’s sake, can we please make an effort to leave comments which are … you know, interesting? Of conceivable interest to newcomers, and not just feeding back into the closed loop of the previous thread? Thank you for your cooperation.
3
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:12 am |Permalink
“David Plouffe, the manager of Mr. Obama’s campaign, said that if Mrs. Clinton won 55 percent of the remaining pledged delegates — an assumption he called “overly generous” — she would still need about two-thirds of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to reach the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton’s advisers did not dispute Mr. Plouffe’s calculation, in effect acknowledging the enormousness of their task.”
On topic (and bless you William!)
4
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:31 am |Permalink
an excellent article for anyone interested in the feminist/race tension in this contest. And why Hillary has done little for the cause of women.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:00 am |Permalink
Bravo William @ 2
For a while there i thought you were competing with John Edwards and Al Gore for going missing when your constituents were pleading for intervention.
humour intended.
6
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:20 am |Permalink
Buenos dios, habitues, and William too, where in the Kingdom of Bludge (short trumpet fanfare) your request is our command.
———————————
He looked into her eyes across his busy network desk, a pulse of negative energy crackled and shimmied the periphery of his “event horizon”, the red light was on, the cameras rolling……………it was precisely at this moment that their worlds collided.
“You’re like I am, and I hate to say that.” — Bill O’Reilly, to Hillary Clinton.
7
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:24 am |Permalink
Wow EC @ 6 Hillary sleeps with enemy in a last-ditch neocon-Clinton push for the nomination. What a surprise. Surely she realises why they are supporting her- they think McCain has more chance of beating her.
Shame about the maths
8
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:59 am |Permalink
That’s part of it, Andrew. McBombster and Brutusina are also Beltway house-trained and so either is infinitly more desirable to the WHIG/PNAC/Neocon/MIC/MSM cabal, than a guy whose ass ain’t owned.
In the traditional American sense of the meaning.
9
Catrina
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:11 am |Permalink
DNC Member and superdelegate Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. lines up for Hillary Clinton bringing her lead to 23.
10
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:37 am |Permalink
I thought Bill O’Reilly summed it up quite well when he said to Hillary that her policies were almost identical to Obama’s and that the main difference between them was personality. He then pointed out that Obi was really nice and likeable and that Hill was basically a divisive bitc*.
11
Pancho
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:47 am |Permalink
Another Bosnia moment before the Indiana vote?
“a memo from Evan Bayh has surfaced in which Bayh blames the Clinton’s for the closing of the Magnequench plant in Vapraiso, Indiana, and this memo is due to hit the presses tomorrow”.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:50 am |Permalink
William
Hugely entertaining video clip on this thread, tip of the hat.
And, thanks for your edict at the top of this thread, we are beholden.
13
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:50 am |Permalink
hate to be really dumb but who is Bill O’Reilly?
14
Pancho
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:58 am |Permalink
A Fox anchor, famous for saying outrageous and offensve things. Colbert’s character is a take-off of him. Some of his hits here: http://mediamatters.org/items/200709210007
15
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:00 am |Permalink
Thanks Pancho!
16
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:01 am |Permalink
10
Diogenes
And Ecky:
There’s a parallel in nature, (as if Clinton resides beyond the natural domain!) that perfectly demonstrates Hillary’s behaviour: the Golden Orb Spider.
But the genders are reversed: Hillary is the tiny male spider and O’Reilly is the female spider.
The big fat female spider spins a huge web and sits in the middle waiting for its prey to fly in. She then leaves the carcasses hanging (after draining their bodies of nutrient) wrapped as trophies for prospective males to see what a good provider she is.
The very much smaller and weaker male hangs around on the periphery waiting, attracted by the food she ostentatiously displays, all the while risking everything for his chance to mate with a creature that if he isn’t extremely careful will devour him.
So there’s little Hillary, drawn to the power, driven by her lust for power to the heart of the Fox web, where if she’s lucky she gets to procreate her message, but it might all backfire, and O’Reilly could just as easily rip off her head and suck out the juices.
Isn’t nature wonderful?
17
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:09 am |Permalink
Kirri
#12
I can understand the site manager not wanting “newcomers to first see your
rambliing nonsense argument first I quoted.
You’ve hurt the sites credibility ,
but not yours as you try to sneakily ‘disown ‘ the pastor hoping no one notices
Then we had the echo , HarryH to demonstrate his are just as foolishly based
18
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:13 am |Permalink
Morning all.
Anyone prepared to make a guess on Tuesday’s outcome?
And on what will happen next?
I’m guessing the narrative will continue to swing Clinton’s way. She will win Indiana by around 5% and Obama will pick up NC by 5-6. The belief that Hinton’s PA delegate advantage would be erased by NC has been all but erased in the last week.
Even so, the delegate maths won’t change much but the result will mean we’ll all be staying on this ride into June.
Clinton’s triumphs will probably see the MSM spotlight return to her – cos they do love to trash the triumphant – particularly when the winner is something of a triumphalist!
19
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:14 am |Permalink
Watch these two guys: Don Cazayoux and Travis Childers.
…special House elections and the Republicans are going all out to tie both Democrats to Obama.
This should be interesting.
20
Chris B
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:15 am |Permalink
From the Votemaster:
In a special election in LA-06, it looks like Democrats are poised to take a heavily Republican seat as Don Cazayoux (D) is leading Woody Jenkins (R) 50% to 41% according to a new SurveyUSA poll. The election is tomorrow.
In a nice twist on the runaway narrative, the writer lays out Clinton’s non-existent path to the nomination.
The electoral-vote take is that ‘Suppose Obama wins 55% of North Carolina’s 115 pledged delegates for a total of 63 and Clinton wins 55% of Indiana’s pledged delegates for a total of 40. Then Clinton will have 1636 and Obama will have 1796 with 615 left to go. Then as of Wednesday, Obama will need 228/615 = 37% of the rest and Clinton will need 388/615 = 63%.’
And Chris B@20, a Don Cazayoux win would be one more SD for Obama.
26
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:27 am |Permalink
22
Ferny Grover
That’s OK, we get it. Hillary Clinton is Hinton. (named in honour of the great mountaineer, Sir Edmund Hinton?)
27
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:40 am |Permalink
1968. “Yes, of course he has the stuff to go all the way,” John J. Lindsay replied. “But he’s not going to go all the way. The reason is that somebody is going to shoot him. I know it and you know it. Just as sure as we’re sitting here somebody is going to shoot him. He’s out there now waiting for him And, please God, I don’t think we’ll have a country after it.”
There was a stunned silence. Then, one by one, the other reporters agreed. But none asked the most heartbreaking question: Did Kennedy himself know it?”
“Hello darkness, my old friend,
I’ve come to talk with you again,
Because a vision softly creeping,
Left it’s seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence.
In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone,
’neath the halo of a street lamp,
I turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence. “
S & G.
Always best to bear in mind that Obi’s enemies are playing for keeps.
28
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:57 am |Permalink
Ecky, you’ve been beating this slow drum, a funereal tattoo, for some time, and it’s probably good that you keep us reminded of what a violent, racist, and vile underbelly lies not much below the surface in US politics.
It was depressing watch Gore last night on LL, he seemed resigned to Hillary, unsure if Obama could do it, and pessimistically sure that the USA was all but sunk. His lament that the Republic is lost was mournful, not angry, just the hopeless realisation that it has been dumbed down to the level of that yapping little whelp Bush, sold down the river to endless war for the Haliburtons et al, and was being herded with the cattle prod of fear into an Orwellian nightmare of its own making.
Gore’s Olympian view of the sweep of US history has a soundtrack, it’s your drumbeat Ecky:
Tombeau pour America
29
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:59 am |Permalink
OH, that’s Gore Vidal in the above post, not Big Al! LOL
30
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:14 pm |Permalink
“The very much smaller and weaker male hangs around on the periphery waiting, attracted by the food she ostentatiously displays, all the while risking everything for his chance to mate with a creature that if he isn’t extremely careful will devour him.”
Good heavens, Kirri, we’ll simply never be able to get our heads around the line, “eat me, b*tch!”, ever again! Otoh, your example goes a long way to help explain the meaning of the term, “c*nt-struck”.
31
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:17 pm |Permalink
Opps, sorry at 30, ’twas the “i” in bee-arch wot done it.
32
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:20 pm |Permalink
30
Enemy Combatant
The natural world offers a veritable feast of metaphors for human behaviour Ecky, and sometimes they are more telling that all the gossip pages put together.
In this case, Hillary was putting herself into the maw of the Fox, or like a little cleaner fish, into the jaws of the shark for some mutual benefit.
Symbiosis or dalliance, take your pick, but in her case, the risk was always that she’d get hurt, even in the smaller sense of her supporters going “huh?”.
Morphing into a b!tch of the Rightwing press is not an appealing look.
33
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:32 pm |Permalink
Pancho
325
see you still quoting the biasely pro Obama Dailykosto to support your foolish math based arguments for Obama. Of course you could quote thirtyeight site maths , but then he openly says on his site he is for Obama doesn’t he
(oh , and he also contributes his pro Obama nonsense to Dailykos as you know)
34
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm |Permalink
sad.
35
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 1:05 pm |Permalink
Hillary & Obama do disagree on these 4 domestic issues
Let me know which of the above 4/ issues you disagree with Hillary on ??
ps/
(The smiling assassin neocon O’Reilly kept sating Hillary above policys wee socialist which you’d expect from a neocon. I did not expect you 2 to agree with Bill O’Reilly.
You 2 may have plenty of valid proofs for loathing Hillary , but not on this occasion)
38
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 1:15 pm |Permalink
Labor policy supports ALL 4 Hillary policys. (with Healthcare even stronger)
39
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 1:21 pm |Permalink
It’s a slow news Saturday, so let’s unmask yet another of the “Get Obi” lynch mob, shall we? Today’s Pitchfork & Flame carrier, Bludgers, is Carl P. Leubsdorf. Carl’s link is featured prominently in today’s “must click-ons” on today’s RCP Homepage, a source quoted by many a Bludger, sometimes with a great deal of conviction.
Away from the hustle and bustle of busy, work-a-day media life, guess who Carl Baby’s special two bestest buddies are? Well blow me down if it ain’t Davey “The Schnorer” Broder, and His Highness the Lord of Darkness, Novakula himself.
David Broder is seen by many as a supporter of George W. Bush political adviser Karl Rove. (wiki)
Bob Novak is a PNAC War-Shill and all-purpose GOPper dogsbody. He and Judith Miller (former NYT Ace-Stenographer) outted Ambassador Joe Wilson’s wife, Valery Plame, as a CIA Senior Field Agent in the NYTs couple of years back. Joey “Honest As The Day’s Long” Wilson had stated in a prior NYT Op-Ed that he was pissed that BushCo and the WHIGs had mendaciously insisted that Niger was schlepping weapons grade yellowcake uranium to Axis of Evil charter member, Saddam Hussein. (ecki)
Bush had claimed that The Evil One’s nookular scientists were converting the stuff into “weapons grade” faster than a bunch of project n*ggers could cook up a batch of crystal meth!
All concerned in the original Big Lie, that the former Ba’athist strongman was hoarding nukular WMDs, have subsequently withdrawn from that position.
Except Richard Perle. But we’ll deal with him on a more appropriate occassion.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 1:38 pm |Permalink
Hugely entertaining video clip on this thread, tip of the hat.
Don’t thank me, KR – thank Andrew Bolt. I know you want to.
41
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 1:53 pm |Permalink
#35 Jen Says: [this seems to cement it for Obama. Bloody maths, huh?] – not so fast ms. Jen.
How often we watch a football match where one team is leading, playing well or very well, but it just cannot put the other team away. we all have the nagging feeling that then other team is going to win and often they did winning the match in the last few minutes. This Hillary Vs Obama match has that feeling all over.
“Obama Intent on Running Out the Clock”
Barack Obama looks like the quarterback of a football team intent on running out the clock to preserve its lead in a championship game.
By spurning future debates, he seeks to prevent giving rival Hillary Clinton a way to change the course of the game. He is playing it safe to avoid a mistake that could erase the small but firm margin he built through the first three quarters.
As football fans can attest, that's often risky strategy.....
Mr. Obama might be right politically in trying to run out the clock. But that strategy could leave him vulnerable if the unexpected occurs and he lacks a high-level forum in which to respond
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:02 pm |Permalink
It ’s time to reprise The Great Presidential Race. If you haven’t watched it, the metaphor has a continuing life.
Hillary’s predicted demise is a bit like the US recession, the numbers don’t quite stack up yet.
43
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:15 pm |Permalink
Finns-
i am simply going on what the psephs are saying about the numbers required for Mrs Bill to pull it off. Of course it is possible, as stated, that if some unforseen catastrophe occurs for Obama (and Wright isn’t it) , that she could get the unprecendented and unlikely swings required, but we’re looking at probablities here, not fortune telling.
Re Obama supporteres out in force- statistaically there are going to be more of us than you guys on a site that attracts a majority of centrist or left voters. It’s the conservatives in the minority – and Hillary represents conservative politics.
44
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:17 pm |Permalink
Ron @ 37
I’ve actually seldom disagreed with the fundamentals of Hillary’s policies, although I think she has disgraced herself with the “petrol tax holiday” fiasco. There are a few differences between her and Obi but not enough to matter much to me, especially as I live in Australia.
It’s Hillary who is the problem, not her policies.
This sums it up;
“Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool. Anyone who thinks they have principles is deluded. Anyone who thinks they give a damn about the Democratic Party is hopelessly lost. Hell, by 1996 – after they had led the party over the cliff in 1994 – it was already completely overt, and Clinton followed the advice of the switch-hitting, prostitute-impressing and appropriately named political guru Dick Morris to pursue a strategy of triangulation. In other words, running against your own party in Congress. What more evidence does anyone need?”
41 Finns
At the end of an American football game, the team that’s behind usually gets one chance with the ball. The quarterback buys enough time to allow the wide receiver to reach the end zone and tosses a high ball in, hoping the receiver catches it for a touch-down. It’s called a “Hail Mary”. Hill’s buying some time and hoping to lob a “Hail Mary” in to a clique of SDs.
45
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:21 pm |Permalink
Hi Diogs- who’s quote is that about the Clampetts?
46
Pancho
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:44 pm |Permalink
Sounding silly Ron. Play the ball, not the man. If you have a response to any of the maths and pathways I have linked from DK, 538 or electoral-vote above, I’d love to hear them. I’m not holding my breath though, because, we both know, none exist.
47
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 2:56 pm |Permalink
And there’s a good point, Jen. At what point does a professing ‘left’ candidate move sufficiently to the right to cross the mythical central line and become right-wing???
In reality, the left/right descriptor is virtually redundant as both mainstream sides of politics fight over the middle ground. Sure, you will have some pollies with a stronger emphasis on social policy than others, but all agree these days that economics is the ‘main game’. The old Left has lost that battle, sadly. On the other hand, old Right-wingers used to pathologically believe in small government. These days Government of whatever stripe is getting bigger and bigger and its incursions into the lives of its citizens greater and greater. The Left may have won this battle, but the outcome is not what they would have wanted. Liberalism (the philosophy, not the Party) was a foundation of modern democracy, but is today on the wane as we enter the age of the Nanny/Protector State. We all thought that freedom and civil rights would be bolstered by the free flow of communication. The reality we now face is that never before have we had greater access to information, yet less ability to critically analyse it. For many, information is packaged and disseminated by a press that is anything but free, held captive by a small number of Murdoch clones who are themselves propogandists of Conservatism.
When it comes to US politics, I haven’t seen anyone yet who isn’t right of centre on most economic and social issues – including Obama. It’s all a matter of degree. FDR may have come close with his Keynsian platform, but it was to manage a crisis at the time – and he was hardly a socialist. They all tend to be socially conservative, card carrying members of the Christian Establishment. Unlike the ALP, the Dems don’t have formal factions, though like any organisation you will find folk gathering around certain ideas and the personalities who champion them.
I understand the argument that it’s necessary to be centre-right to get elected, but surely it’s daft to ascribe ‘left-wing’ to someone whose policy platform and/or public statements is anything but – regardless of their Party membership.
48
Classified
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:03 pm |Permalink
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:03 pm |Permalink
This is a story that was just waiting to break.
Carl Bernstein-Gate!
Brutusina’s biographer, Carl Bernstein, applies the blowtorch to her belly as he shows her at her canniving worst. If the math doesn’t do it for her, then she’ll get into anything, including the gutter. For those who came in late, Carl Bernstein and his buddy, “Tumbledown” Bobby Woodward deep-throated their way into the jounalistic limelight as “The Original Watergaters”. Carl and Bobby were instrumental in GOP heavies finally making President Tricky Dicky an offer he couldn’t refuse.
“Take the chopper ride from the lawn, Richard, or you’ll be knee-capped in front of the nation in primetime!”
Tricky picked up on their nuance, like the seasoned old trouper that he was.
The D.C. pub, The Watergate, has been charging way over “industry best practice” ever since. Pilgrims and geeks cop it in the keester rates-wise. Naturally, in a culture obsessed with hierarchy, special rates apply for Beltway Insiders and national celebrities.
Over the last decade, the joint has turned into a regular Political FrontierLand*.
You know…… “tall-tales and true….. from the legendary past,…..BOOM, boom, boom, boom, BOOM, boom, boom, boom,,,, aaahh-woo-woo-wooo-woo….”.
*A subsidiary of the Disney franchise. Trade inquiries welcome.
50
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:22 pm |Permalink
Diogenes
#44
Thanks for your frankness , again
Full Quote: “”I’ve actually seldom disagreed with the fundamentals of Hillary’s policies, although I think she has disgraced herself with the “petrol tax holiday” fiasco. There are a few differences between her and Obi but not enough to matter much to me, especially as I live in Australia”…. then somone’s quote
3 points you make plus the quote persons point.
First point, the 4 Hillary policys I listed in #37 are the real 4 domestic policy differences between Hillary & Obama (importance later). The fact you seldom have fundamental differences to Hillary’s policys is what a frank objective Labor supporter would think.
3rd point
Agree the differences do not appear as important as we’re living in ‘oz’.
However my view was/is from American-ecentric re the effect of Hillarys domestic policys that Obama disagrees with.
The US middle/lower classes will think its important & benefical to get tax cuts at the expense of the rich.
US familys will benefit directly (45million presently uninsured & about another 25 million under-insured) from having healthcare insurance so they can go to see a doctor as millions presently cann’t.
US familys will see the benefit of a Oil Company supertax to fund equity distribution & fund alternative non coal usage. I can see a US family liking these Labor based ideas and if we lived there we may also.
2nd point, “petrol tax holiday”. Its a match to McCain’s political stunt as a stunt
Its separate to her legislative & regulation based Oil Company supertax policy
which is sound for equity & conservation. The ‘petrol holiday’ was to attract
swinging voters 2 register & support her in future Primarys & is I agree a politics based stunt and may pick up a few
The quote you listed. Putting my head out here. Dick Morris would think he invented “triangulation” but he didn’t. Hawke did it against State ALP governments to get re-elected. Fraser did the same against State Liberal governments to get re-elected. Rudd clearly ‘distanced’ himself from the unpopular NSW ALP & Yemma. Rudd in reality ‘bagged’ Beattie’s Council amalgamations whilst cleverly capitalising on his otherwise popularity. Its a standard political strategy to offset the reverse tactic the other ide will throw up (Howard’s) ‘wall to wall Labor Governments’. Clinton followed normal Pollie political strategy like the ALP & the Libs do here. The author left out the crucial bottom line. Clinton won POTUS a 2nd time by old style triangulation
51
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:29 pm |Permalink
Just scolled back & noticed
“Always best to bear in mind that Obi’s enemies are playing for keeps”
the last 4 lines needed another two , perhaps off the cuff for the mood.
“turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence”
“the twinking ron ray it t’was
those closest are all that truely matter”
52
Swing Lowe
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:53 pm |Permalink
Quick question – are there any Australian bookies that are offering odds on who wins the NC primary?
I’m thinking of having a punt on HRC winning in NC…
53
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 3:56 pm |Permalink
Kevin Rennie
#42
Brilliant. Yes the numbers kevin indicate the Obama just may snatch the Nominee , but the numbers & the Policys against McCain strongly favour Hillary.
The true story of Howard Dean DNC (Obama’s factional ally & mate) stitiching up Hillary (their factional enemy) over Florida & Michigan may blow up Obama
Ferny #47
“When it comes to US politics, I haven’t seen anyone yet who isn’t right of centre on most economic and social issues – including Obama”
Ferny , read my #37 of 4 Hillary policys and advise me by email via William if any of them are ‘right of centre’. Bill O’Reillly called them “socialist’
Pancho
#46
Dailykos is a biased pro Obama rag Believe it a thirtyeight another one if you wantbut then you criticise (rightly) Fox News for being pro ‘right’.Get some independent views (and not from pro Hillary ones either)
54
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:20 pm |Permalink
Jen @ 45
It’s from an absolutely hilarious anti-Clinton rant I linked yesterday. Here it is again.
Fair and balanced commentary from the Smirking Chimp. Hillary’s refusal to concede despite having lost should not be tolerated by the Democrat Party. Why is it being tolerated?
Because
(1) Hillary is a female
(2) People feel sorry for her because her husband has a “zipper problem”
(3) Starry eyed Democrats cling to the myth that Bill actually did something in his eight years
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:27 pm |Permalink
Ron, I’m not sure why I need to send you an email via William. Have our opinions suddenly become clandestine?
Nonetheless, that’s my point (though you missed it). ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ have become redundant as those in the traditional ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ Parties adopt policies that would have made their forebears cringe. Overall, politicians from the old ‘Left’ parties have lurched to the Right. Blair’s famous line that ‘we’re all Thatcherites now’ could as easily apply to the ALP and even moreso the US Democrats. Howard adopted (albeit perhaps through clenched teeth) Medicare. That didn’t make him a leftie. Likewise, a few social policy crumbs from Hillary – or Obama – doesn’t make them a socialist, despite what O’Reilly says. And really, Ron – do you seriously want to use O’Reilly as your authority on what comprises a socialist????
56
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:40 pm |Permalink
#44 – Diog – [Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool] – i think you are a little hard on the old gal here. At least, with her, what you see is what you get. There is an honesty in her dishonesty.
My main beef with Obama has always been that he is not what he seems. You dont have to take my words for it. Just take the words of the person who probably understands him the most, this includes his wife, his Pastor of 20 years. Someone who has given him his identity, who has provided him with the belonging and his political platform. It was his Pastor who said: “he is just another politician, who would say anything and do anything to get elected”, including betraying his Pastor.
He said it twice, not once, first at PBS interview and then at the NPC Speech. You have to ask yourself, first why did he say this and second why say it twice. If he really thinks Obama is good for America and good the race relationships, he would have, like i said before, taken a long holiday in Patagonia and plays with the Penguins. Now Obama has “rejected” him twice, but each time to save his political skin. Please note Obama has not said he “DISOWN” him.
A large part of the Black community does support the Pastor, so I would suggest Obama would not dare to go beyond just “rejecting” his Pastor or wimpy “I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Reverend Wright has changed as a consequence of this”. He cannot disown him because they are already joined at the hip.
57
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:46 pm |Permalink
40
William Bowe
Thank Andrew Bolt? Oh yes, of course, for standing up to the world wide conspiracy of climate scientists, international businesses, politicians and thinking people everywhere who peddle this nonsense about carbon dioxide being a wee problem.
What would we do without his lone voice of reason? Eh?
(And for being the biggest loudmouth on Insiders who continually interrupts the other speakers so you cannot actually the hear the usually interesting things they have to say!)
Yep, he’s really unique, and I thank him for remaining so.
58
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 4:56 pm |Permalink
42
Kevin Rennie
I said it the other day, and Stephen Long said the same thing on Lateline last night:
The US is, right now, in recession.
The 0.6% “growth” was rising inventory levels (yep, they count that on the plus side in the US assesment of GDP).
That’s stuff being stacked in warehouses which cannot be sold to a consumer that has just stopped ‘discretionary’ spending, and is instead just trying to pay the bills and feed the kids.
This statistical blip may look good to the uninitiated looking at the radar screen of the MSM’s ‘economic press’, but anyone who watches more closely, knows what’s coming.(Next quarter the warehouses are still full but have NOT re-ordered. It’s called ‘inevitable’).
Housing is falling into a bottomless pit, wages have shrunk over the last eight years, inflation is up, credit markets are cactus, and the Federal reserve bank of the mighty US of A is actually in the process of socialising the country’s mortgage debt. (Eeeeeek, the hero of ‘free enterprise’ is looking more like the Soviet Union everyday! LOL)
You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
59
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:06 pm |Permalink
Ferny- re Left and right. It’s all relative. I know that the “left” has become more and more conservative here and in the US (that’s why we have the Greens here), but for want of a better term (happy to use one if you have it), there is a chasm of difference between the values underpinning Democrats and Republicans in terms of social policy and attitudes to war etc. Hillary appears to me to be closer to the Repugs than obama on miltary and national security. And that’s enoughfor me to back him. Enough murdering of civilians to ‘liberate’ them already.
60
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:17 pm |Permalink
Jen. I agree. My comments re Obama were in response to those from the Conservative side who pin him as ‘the most liberal’ (as if that’s a swear word – it used to be regarded as a foundation of western democracy) candidate in history.
My support of Obama has as much to do with my assessment of his character, and the fact that the Establishment doesn’t own his nether regions.
Glad to see you didn’t miss the opportunity to plug the Greens. Would their policy platform be different if they were a real chance of winning Government?
61
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:38 pm |Permalink
Jen again,
I forgot to mention that I have no better descriptor than left and right. I have no beef with their use per se. It’s their blaise application to current politicians that I find trite. Most pollies hold to an eclectic mix of what could be termed ‘left’ and ‘right’ policies. Very few (I can’t think of any) are philosophically committed to the Left or Right. Philosophical conviction has given way to pragmatism.
62
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:44 pm |Permalink
56 Finns
I agree with every word you say in that post.
And I don’t fully agree with the quote “Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool” as lots of people who believe in the Clinton’s are not foolish. But I do think they care not a whit for anyone but themselves. Still, I’m from the Dawkin’s school of ethics and I don’t believe anyone is altruistic, including Obi, although some people come closer than others.
63
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:44 pm |Permalink
There is still a fight in the old gal yet. If Obama loses North Carolina. It will confirm he is not electable in Nov and maybe, just maybe, Blacks are also beginning to doubt him. Watch his support crumbles and it will be Sweet Carolina indeed.
May 3, 2008
Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race
By JEFF ZELENY and JODI KANTOR
RALEIGH, N.C. —
Not long ago, Mr. Obama was perceived to hold such an advantage that some Democrats here wondered whether Mrs. Clinton would bother to compete vigorously. But the candidates intensified their efforts in the final weekend — both appeared here on Friday evening — and Mr. Obama was eyeing a return on the eve of the election.
“This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer,” Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Kinston. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”
“If she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination, and if she gets the nomination, she will be president of the United States,” Gov. Michael F. Easley, a Clinton supporter, said at a rally with Mrs. Clinton on Friday in Hendersonville.
64
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:45 pm |Permalink
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:48 pm |Permalink
Finns
I’m predicting she wins Indiana by more than Obi wins NC, but it still won’t be enough as NC is twice as big as Indiana.
66
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:49 pm |Permalink
I noticed that Hillary’s lead in Indiana has moved up to 6.2 on RCP averages. Bearing in mind that ‘Undecideds’ have been breaking significantly for Clinton, this is shaping up as a serious thumping on current trends. There is, however, still 4 days to go.
The NC poll trends are showing a minor recovery over the last few days. It will be interesting to see if Obama can get his lead back into double digits by Tuesday, or will the Clinton Undecideds bring him undone again. Anything under a double digit win in NC will maintain the psychological advantage to Hillary.
67
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 5:56 pm |Permalink
In the words of Stephen Colbert –
“GROW SOME”
C’mon you lot! Predictions for Tuesday?!
68
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:02 pm |Permalink
#65 – Diog – i wouldn’t take the solid black (80%+) support for granted now, after Philly Mark 2. It could very well unravel right before our eyes at NC.
May 02, 2008
Renewed Wright Imbroglio Exposes Fissures Among Black Voters
By Jonathan Tilove
But his repudiation this week of his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., may unleash a more open debate in the black community, where even some who back Obama worry that he is vague or evasive in his approach to race matters………………… To many, Gillespie among them, Obama’s problem is that he has never made explicit what, beyond symbolism, his election would do for black America. Now, he is rejecting Wright’s racial agenda without having clearly articulated his own…….. Indeed, “There’s a lot of winking going on in the Obama campaign,” said Glenn Loury, a Brown University economist who writes frequently about race.
Loury supports Clinton because, he said, Obama’s candidacy “is a place where the racial contract is being negotiated and renegotiated,” and he simply doesn’t want to entrust Obama with that power.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:10 pm |Permalink
Finns @ 68
Agree Wright will drop his black support. They won’t shift to Hillary, they just won’t turn out in the same numbers. He had to cut Wright lose more for the general election and to improve his “electability”.
Ferny @ 67
NC Obi by 6%
Indiana Hill by 8%
Obi gains 1 PD net
70
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:17 pm |Permalink
It was interesting to see Shields and Brooks on Newshour tonight. Brooks was more than confident that Obama would take the nomination, desptie his bad week, and even thought his ‘cool’ character was attractive in a President. Both of them dismissed the ‘gas tax’ nonsense, and Brooks was particularily scathing about McCain trucking (pun!) with this liberal crappola. Hillary was lumped with McCain, but otherwise ignored. Both talked extensively about Obama.
You can feel the closeness of the race, but the outcome is still not in question. Hillary can only win this by political kneecapping and coersion. She’s past the numbers, and the Wright thing will not do it for her.
(Brooks was good on this: Wright was NOT a problem for Obama until he decided to go to the press and posture because his life’s message was being dissed. Obama cut him free, as he had to, but showed himself to be vastly different to Wright, a post-partisan player, a uniter)
Shields was in agreement, Wright just showed what was the old school, what Obama is not.
Shields wanted Obama to kick Hillary and McCain much harder over their stoopid gas tax pandering.
When the guy on the right and the guy on the left are in such agreement, there’s not a lot of room for HRC.
(Apologies to Ferny regarding the loose terminology, it’s so gauche, I know, and just not Wright!)
71
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:18 pm |Permalink
This is called Obama’s chickens coming home to roost. He tried to run as the non-black black. That is, he is technically black, so that elite white liberals could make themselves feel good by voting for him (which is how he won all those caucuses). But since he’s not really black at all in a cultural or political sense (he’s an elite white liberal whose father was from Africa), he brought with him none of the culture of permanent black grievance which previous black candidates like Jackson and Sharpton had. Or so he thought. But to get his start in Chicago black politics ten years ago, he had to “pass for black” by paying lip-service to the culture of permanent black grievance, in part by sitting through Rev Wright’s black supremicist sermons. Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.
By the way, here is the truth about the Tuskegee experiments, which Wright used as his justification for the allegation that the US created the AIDS virus as an attack on blacks:
“In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years. Prior to the availability of penicillin in the 1940s and 1950s, the researchers couldn’t have treated the men even if they wanted to. Even after standardized penicillin treatments were available, it wasn’t clear that the patients could have been helped. Among scholars who’ve studied Tuskegee, there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment. But no one disputes that Tuskegee had nothing whatsoever to do with genocide or even a desire to spread the disease among the black population.”
72
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:21 pm |Permalink
I think that second-last sentence should read “there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment.”
73
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:22 pm |Permalink
William you tiresome prat, are you deleting the word – - – - – now?
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:29 pm |Permalink
How very sad. The only words on my “blacklist” are there to block spam, and they do not include “racism”.
79
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:29 pm |Permalink
99, It must be CHAOS
80
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:30 pm |Permalink
And more: “The Tuskegee study emerged out of a liberal progressive public health movement concerned about the health and well-being of the African-American population,” writes University of Chicago professor Richard Schweder. He adds: “The study was done with the full knowledge, endorsement and participation of African-American medical professionals, hospitals and research institutes.”
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:30 pm |Permalink
That would be KAOS, Finns.
82
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:31 pm |Permalink
It must be Adam.
83
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:32 pm |Permalink
Herr Doktor, we thank you for setting us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ straight on the syphillitic genocide stuff. Classic.
How many blacks are imprisoned in the US? How many die under the age of 5? How many in the top decile of income?
How many in the bottom?
Herr Doktor, would you allow them to vote? I mean, are they really ‘intelligent’ like us white folks?
And lastly Herr Doktor, when will Hillary win the nomination? You you still certain it’s Feb 5th?
And if a black man can’t defeat a white cadaver in a general election, do you think dumbocracy has any future?
84
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:32 pm |Permalink
Maybe the r-word is blocked by German keyboards out of uber-PC, which this country has a bad case of. Anyway I’m off to see the Nuremberg trials courtroom now. More at 11, as they say on CNN.
85
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:33 pm |Permalink
Adam
Agree re syphilis.
Tertiary syphilis is basically no longer contagious. And it barely responds to penicillin as the damage has already been done. The world’s greatest philosopher ever Nietzsche died of tertiary syphilis, many years after his one and only sexual experience, which happened to be with a sex worker.
Perhaps the Austrians are blocking that word. They’re still a bit sensitive about that kind of stuff after a bad experience.
86
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:33 pm |Permalink
I’m just giving you the facts, KR. I report, you decide.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:34 pm |Permalink
Apology accepted, Adam. Thanks for coming.
88
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:36 pm |Permalink
My sincere apologies, herr websitedirektor.
89
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:37 pm |Permalink
Adam, i told them so that: “Obama can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Obama can not fool all of the people all of the time”.
Yes, Obama’s Ayam Jakarta sudah pulang rumah (This one is for the man from Kirribilli)
90
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:38 pm |Permalink
let’s try again
racism
91
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:38 pm |Permalink
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:39 pm |Permalink
Perhaps your comment contained another word/phrase which inadvertently included one of my spam blocks? If so, I will remove it if I can find out what it is.
93
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:42 pm |Permalink
Adam, your intepretation of ‘report’ is almost as wide as Fox’s:
“Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.”
It sounds more like prognostication from on high, (kinda like what we all do around here! LOL) to me.
But let it pass, your opinion has been noted.
Meanwhile, those Supers keep cross dressing to hide their homophobia!
94
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:48 pm |Permalink
Finn, this chicken is cooking Hillary’s goose!
95
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:49 pm |Permalink
KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.
96
Adam
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 6:49 pm |Permalink
KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.
97
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:13 pm |Permalink
69 Diog
Yep I feel much the same re Tuesday. I’m hoping Obama can pick up a few percent in NC and get it back to double digits. Can’t see things changing much in Indiana though. Still, as you say, the delegate count remains virtually static.
It’s the psychology that changes, and the impact of psychology on SDs is anyone’s guess.
98
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:16 pm |Permalink
Perhaps William,
Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
Or it could have been casino.
99
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:18 pm |Permalink
Perhaps William,
Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
Or it could have been cas*no.
Or vagina – but I imagine that’s unlikely.
100
Diogenes
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:22 pm |Permalink
No exit polls from Guam!! What is the state of democracy in that principality or whatever it is. They even spelt Hillary’s name incorrectly on the ballot paper as Hilary.
They get eight half votes for PDs and five SDs, so it’s quite conceivable that there will be a greater delegate shift from Guam than from the NC/Indiana primaries which look like a draw to me.
101
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:50 pm |Permalink
100
Diogenes
haha!! That’s too funny
102
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 7:59 pm |Permalink
Finns, as an Obama backer, I dont think the Wright thing is a good look. I dont think he expected round 2 from Wright, otherwise he would have repudiated him the first time. But you can chant “Wright, Wright Wright” until youre blue in the face, Obama is still the better candidate and has the most delegates
103
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:06 pm |Permalink
#102 – [the better candidate]? – it’s not me that you have to convince with the Pastorgate, it’s working class whites, hispanics, asians, catholic, jewish voters Obama has to convinced. So far, he failed miserably. he is being carried only by blacks and the liberals. Boy, you gotta carry that weight for a long time.
104
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:08 pm |Permalink
Even Americans will eventually get it that what someone you know says is not as potent as what you said yourself (like “I survived sniper fire in Bosnia” , when there was none).
105
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:26 pm |Permalink
yes finns i’d take Wright over the sniper lie any day
106
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:27 pm |Permalink
103
“he is being carried only by blacks and the liberals”
Yeah Finns – it’s just a shame there’s so bloody many of ‘em or Hillary would be winning!
107
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:32 pm |Permalink
cnn doesnt have the primary in Guam on its election center site- come on, it’s 4 delegates!!!
108
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:35 pm |Permalink
FG at 106, its the bloody maths thing again. If it wasnt for the maths, this nomination would be Hillary’s
109
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:35 pm |Permalink
In a recent comment, Herr Spam Dokter Carr, quotes the following without providing a source. I hope none of his students view PB because the information that Adam provides is chronically factually challenged. What some would be so bold to call a lot of Tommy rot!
From Adam’s assertion: “In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years.”
So why did President Bill Clinton apologise for it, Adam, if it were no more that a spot of misguided benevolence?
The Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment
“The United States government did something that was wrong—deeply, profoundly, morally wrong. It was an outrage to our commitment to integrity and equality for all our citizens. . . . clearly racist.”
The true nature of the experiment had to be kept from the subjects to ensure their cooperation. The sharecroppers’ grossly disadvantaged lot in life made them easy to manipulate. Pleased at the prospect of free medical care—almost none of them had ever seen a doctor before—these unsophisticated and trusting men became the pawns in what James Jones, author of the excellent history on the subject, Bad Blood, identified as “the longest nontherapeutic experiment on human beings in medical history.” ”
In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years.”
Truly, Adam, your facility with History sometimes rivals that of Winston Smith.
110
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:38 pm |Permalink
only blacks and liberals.
He should be carried by Only Whites (do Blacks actually get to vote these days?), and neocons – who have done such a fab job to date.
Finns…. I know you don’t mean it the way it sounds.
111
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:43 pm |Permalink
#110 – jen [Finns…. I know you don’t mean it the way it sounds] – the only sound that i like is the sound of music or as the medicos would call it the sound mucus.
112
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:54 pm |Permalink
McCain? A “credible candidate” Or a great white cadaver?
Now, there’s a question!
Until the dreary bunch of Republican candidates took to the podium and unzipped their shortcomings one by one, McCain was nobody’s man. I suppose being the last man standing is some sort of prize, but the lunar right and the Christian loops are with Rush and Ann Coulter on this one.
OK, some of the lunch bucket brigade will never vote for the tinted guy (Wright or no Wright), but that all will flock to McCain after the 8 years of Republican bastardry and perversion of the fundamentals of the Republic is to credit these people with sub-moronic IQ’s.
Sorry, I don’t buy it.
When Obama wins the nomination, the full force of 8 years of bottled anger against this tyrany of the inbred Bush and his merry band of Neocons will be unleashed, and McCain will be raised like Frankenstein’s monster out of the formaldehyde and flayed without mercy.
Obama the ‘black grievance candidate’? Nup, he’ll be Obama driving the stake through the heart of the white zombie McCain, and finally killing this Neocon monstrosity in its tracks.
And the “ignorant loathing lefties” will be in “paroxysms of righteous sarcasm” no doubt! LOL
Bring it on!
113
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:57 pm |Permalink
Finnigans my friend,(and I do think we are by now, despite our differences) I would like to think that politics can be put aside for the greater good.
I think that the values Obama represents are those that most of us aspire to, and it saddens me to think that we reduce this to a football game of hoping the team we barack for – pun intended – wins, rather than who is most likely to change the paradigm of invested money, racial bias, religious intolerence, etc etc that is what we are all familiar with.
That’s why I disagree with you, but I appreciate the fact that we can do it with mutual respect.
And so my friend, may the best leader win.
114
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 8:57 pm |Permalink
Ferny
#47 & #55
Ferny , I understood your point, but totally disagreed with it ,thats why I suggested the examples. Your suggesting the ‘left’ and ‘right’ tags are blurred.
If you are a believer in the ’socialist left’ , or lefter , or in the Greens or a ’socialist’, then you may as well stop reading now.
I’m saying that there is some blur on foreign policy but not with domestic policy here or in the US. I’m saying the World of ’socialism’ &’whitlamism’ is dead. Today , in foreign policy we have chemical & bio weapons able to carry in ’suit cases’. We have unstable India, Pakistan & North Korea with nukes who’ll soon be able to hit us here (with 6 others playing with unranium enrichment). We’ve got terrorism witness Bali targeting Aussies. Countrys for their own safety need sound alliances with the US & via the CIA & other countries including Indonesia.That does NOT mean yu agree with all their policys
So there is broad consensus on the US etc alliance. Only the looney left say No
HOWEVER , Labor does have ‘humanitarian & human right’ in their policys (Rudd on Tibet) which the ‘right’ also detest & oppose.
BUT Domestic policy is still ‘left’ and completely different to the ‘right’
Hillary’s key domestic policys listed in #37) are the same as fundamental domestic Labor policys (although our Medicare is stronger). Obama disagrees with them. These Hillary policys are hated by the neocons , and for good reason they are the opposite of their conservative ‘right’ ideology. Labor’s are similarly hated by Howard & the Liberals. I do not agree the lines are blurred.
The means to achieve these have changed due to globalisation & the power of the money markets etc. But Labors equity & social objects have not changed & are opposed by the ‘right’ Yes , financial management is similar , how can one disagree with commonsense economics (except when not practised) so that you have the money to implement social changes that cost money
A political domestic change is ‘new’ Labor. Hawke/Keating ditched the least important & most unelectable damaging domestic policys (as has Rudd) so that 70% of the Labor equity Policys do actually get implemented, rather than sitting in opposition holding the 100% feeling principles pure, and still for example no ‘apology’ and no Kyoto and no equitable capital grants (computers etc) schools funding, no universal fast broadband for all , dental plan etc etc but with full workchoices operating.
These ‘left’ policys are ALL different to the ‘right’ who oppose them all. The lines are not I think blurred between ‘left’ and ‘right’.
Which of the 4 policys in #37 do you agree with & which don’t you disagree with ? (and still be an Obama supporter for other reasons)
115
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:03 pm |Permalink
#113, jen, cant remember who said this: “there are more things that bind us together than those that keep us apart” – is this a hillary and obama love-in?
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:03 pm |Permalink
I’m saying that there is some blur on foreign policy but not with domestic policy here or in the US. I’m saying the World of ’socialism’ &’whitlamism’ is dead. Today , in foreign policy we have chemical & bio weapons able to carry in ’suit cases’.
Perhaps you’ve had a few too many pinots over dinner, but I’m a bit confused by the conflation of ’socialism’ with ‘Whitlamism’. And I’m not sure what weapons have to do with either.
Yes , financial management is similar , how can one disagree with commonsense economics (except when not practised) so that you have the money to implement social changes that cost money
How ‘common’ this ’sense’ is may well be in dispute, since we have massive surplus budgets, both State and Federal, and many Australians who would condemn the neglect of Australia’s health and education systems, public transport and infrastructure…
117
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:12 pm |Permalink
Fri May 2: Workable regimes often employ a spiritual Ponzi scheme with an exclusive national frachise to effectively help finesse the rubes. Not appreciating this was one of the original Russian Man of Steel’s biggest strategic errors. Generalissimo Franco understood the uses of a long established religion, so does Vlad Putin whose m.o. could be quite easily be described as “Fascist” nowadays. http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AjeqF_E..ej4vw9T7EvrBK5X_b4F
118
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:22 pm |Permalink
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:23 pm |Permalink
Fri May 2: Workable regimes often employ a spiritual Ponzi scheme with an exclusive national frachise to effectively help finesse the rubes. Not appreciating this was one of the original Russian Man of Steel’s biggest strategic errors. Generalissimo Franco understood the uses of a long established religion, so does Vlad Putin whose m.o. could be quite easily be described as “Fascist” nowadays.
EC, the comparison between Putin and fascist regimes has been made quite extensively. Putin has cultivated a ‘youth movement’, called ???? (or Nashi, which means ‘ours’). Whilst this movement is filled with all kinds of drifters, opportunists and careerists, it also contains a certain number of brain-dead thugs who have been responsible for escalating violence and murder against blacks, Central Asians, gays, and perceived leftists. The movement, unlike the official line of the communist era, is explicitly nationalist and very supportive of the Orthodox church.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:24 pm |Permalink
Sorry, ???? = Cyrillic characters.
121
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:32 pm |Permalink
Kirri #118 and THR #117
I did say:
“If you are a believer in the ’socialist left’ , or lefter , or in the Greens or a ’socialist’, then you may as well stop reading now”
I could said “the ‘looney left’ includes those that believe some of Whitlam’s cabinet’s public distaste for the US would get sacked today by Rudd. I could have said you could thumb your nose at the US in 1972 cause others didn’t have nukes but not now, there was no terrorism worldwide then , no bio & chemical world wide then, no. The island country was pretty safe fom the World
And I assumed people knew ’socialism’ or its basic principles were the basis of Labor to Whitlam and you were ‘left’ if you believed that (in the context of referring tp Ferny’s taging of ‘left’ had you read Ferny’s post which you did not
Socialism got ditched , it was a means , not an end
but then I assumed people read the newspaper on these issues
122
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:34 pm |Permalink
117
Enemy Combatant
Pander and Putin, two goodies Ecky.
Ya bring a moment or two of relief to this interminable dreariness which seems to have gone on forever. (Groundhog day has nothing on this primary season amigo!)
When David Brooks backhands both McCain and Clinton in the same sentence you just know they are talking crappola!
(Putin is a worry though. Do you think the Russian Orthodox church could be, ar, coerced, into making him a Saint? Saint Vlad the Impala? Saint Vlad the Impeller? Saint Vlad the Polonium? The slayer of Oligarchs and Crusher of Chechnya?)
123
The Finnigans
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:44 pm |Permalink
Everybody is talkin’ –
Pastor returns to haunt Obama
He's been unable to expand his base of support -- African Americans, affluent Whites and young people -- into a consistently winning majority. Obama hasn't been able to get enough working-class whites, in particular, to vote for him.
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:44 pm |Permalink
EC, the comparison between Putin and fascist regimes has been made quite extensively. Putin has cultivated a ‘youth movement’, called ???? (or Nashi, which means ‘ours’). Whilst this movement is filled with all kinds of drifters, opportunists and careerists, it also contains a certain number of brain-dead thugs who have been responsible for escalating violence and murder against blacks, Central Asians, gays, and perceived leftists. The movement, unlike the official line of the communist era, is explicitly nationalist and very supportive of the Orthodox church.
This is an increasingly common phenomenon in russian culture and not unique to one man. for example, the national bolshevik party which are garry kasparov’s friends, aren’t only responsible for murdering minorities, they have ethnic cleansing as their party platform. it’s the same as how blair’s labour party tries to woo racists from the bnp. it is not unique to russia or unique to united russia. there are many, many russian parties linked to our supposed friends in the anti-putin opposition that stop at just the goal of racial purity.
125
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:45 pm |Permalink
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:52 pm |Permalink
I don’t disagree, Gam. A number of economic stats have suggested a post-communist decline in living standards for Russians. Radicalism has persisted, but it appears to have done so in a rather ugly, radical rightist form.
Whilst I agree that the situation has analogies elsewhere, I don’t think we could compare Blair’s Britain with Putin’s Russia. Sadly, the BNP got a seat or two (from the reports I’ve read) in the latest council elections. There’s even a party (the National Front) who, whilst they didn’t win anything, still got quite a few votes in some electorates. These guys reportedly consider the BNP to be ’sell-outs’.
127
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:52 pm |Permalink
124
gam
The NBP are Garry Kasparov’s friends?
Funny, but he was sure it was NBP thugs who beat him up?
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:56 pm |Permalink
The Finnigans Says: [He’s been unable to expand his base of support — African Americans, affluent Whites and young people — into a consistently winning majority. Obama hasn’t been able to get enough working-class whites, in particular, to vote for him.]
hey look! a scary negro!!! obama knows that guy… he must be a scary negro too! i better vote for hillary. q.e.d.
don’t take this to mean i’m a obama supporter, or a hillary supporter. i actually went for bush last election. i thought that the lesson of the first four bush years hadn’t been fully absorbed (voters tend to be slow learners). it would appear that some remedial lessons are still in order so i’m going for tax cuttin’ economy stagflatin’ war fightin’ mccain!
hillary will get there in the end and be flogged by mccain as she sends obama’s new voters home and brings republicans out of the grave to vote against her. or she’ll damage obama so much that he’ll lose anyway. either way, i’m predicting another ten years in the wilderness for the dems. at the end of which ‘clinton’ will acquire the invective associated with ‘nader’. it should be awesome, it isn’t every day you see a global hegemony implode inside a decade.
129
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 9:57 pm |Permalink
FINNS
#56
Just scrolled back & saw your good post on the Pastor and liked your last line ‘they are still joined by the hip”
Obama did that completely in his Philly speech when he praised him as his mentor , friend & inspiratin for racial harmony.
There are so many contradictions now , perhaps he should concede. How can you be POTUS making monumental security decisions on your judgement , when u cann’t even get correct your Pastor mentor is not what you thought for 20 yrs
Further Obama’s chief selling point is that he is a healing force in American politics bring black & white into a more complete union. there is not even union between him & his Pastor (the guy supposedly his inspiration for harmony)
Obama “I don’t think he the Pastor showed much concern for what we are trying to do in this campaign and what we’re trying to do for the American people and with the American people..” The Pastor hasn’t changed since Philly at all , Obama has changed & supposedly the Pastor now does not understand
130
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:07 pm |Permalink
oh my god the pastor wright scandal has overtaken Guam, they have given Hilary their 8 delegates, and she is the nominee!!
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:09 pm |Permalink
127
Kirribilli Removals Says:
The NBP are Garry Kasparov’s friends?
Funny, but he was sure it was NBP thugs who beat him up?
Maybe you could check(mate) your facts?
Former world chess champion Garry Kasparov sees his campaign to change Russia as a mission to safeguard constitutional rights.
“It’s a very important battle,” he told the BBC, at the end of a news conference which he and his political allies had called to outline their plans for a protest on Saturday.
He has assembled a bewilderingly broad coalition. It includes former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the extremist National Bolshevik Party.
The NBP has become known for audacious stunts aimed at embarrassing the establishment. Nevertheless, their flag borrows heavily from Nazi imagery – a hammer and sickle replaces the swastika. They hardly seem likely partners for Western-style democrats.
BBC
looks like your last move was a fool’s mate, kr
132
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:15 pm |Permalink
GAM
#128
thank goodness you posted. I thought the Obamabots were closet neocons but you brought me back to reality “hey look! a scary negro!!! obama knows that guy… he must be a scary negro too! i better vote for hillary. q.e.d.”
What a typical Repug moronic comment. Had you known anything about the working class (the closest to which you’ve only seen on a TV set) you’d know they want practicle solutions for necessities of life from centre right Democrats not ‘liberal Democrats’ and certainly not mugs from the Repugs. your type is why i find the Repugs repugnant
Andrew , the Obamabots said 8 weeks ago , it was a dead issue
so why don’t you question FINNS how he got CNN #123 to do a dud story so he could post it here
133
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:19 pm |Permalink
Ron, I dont believe I ever said Wright was a dead issue- does this mean that I am not an Obamabot- yippee!! If you read my posts at the time, I commented that I found it hard to believe that Obama would not have discussed or raised the controversial comments with the pastor in the past. I can acknowledge thsi hasnt been good for Obama, can you acknowledge the sniper fire issue not being good for Hillary???
Despite the Wright issue, I still think Obama is the better candidate.
134
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:21 pm |Permalink
The Finns at 123 aided by CNN, Obama has gotten enough votes to be ahead in the delegate count. You can analyse and break down the numbers all you like. They dont add up to Hillary winning
135
Rain
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:33 pm |Permalink
Ron @ 114 – some policy discussion, thank you A welcome change from personality and process issues. And apologies to everyone else, I won’t stay long, just popped in coz most of USA is snoozing now, and won’t answer me for some hours yet, *hhmmpphh*.
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I’ve just returned from a lovely dinner with the Canuck branch of the family in chilly autumnal ‘berra – *brrr*, not frosty yet, but not far off. We were chatting more about the possibility of a Unity ticket or pathways to election in the GE, given the Dem voter demographic bases are split. FWIW, the message I’m hearing, is that Obama doesn’t want or need, Hillary’s voter demographics in order to win. Hate Hillary all you like, but don’t hate her voters. If too many voters on either side, wont vote or campaign for the other – then neither can win the GE. So we were speculating about how the public spin-doctoring might sound, on the kiss-and-make-up speeches, or a surprise Edwards, Gore ( or *somebody*) “Come-Back” with a true ‘Unity Pony’
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Anyway, being a statsy-style health economist, I found a reference to an interesting maths nerdy site, which did a kind of Monte Carlo algorithm (heuristic analysis) algorithm on the GE match-ups. For those who don’t know what such algorithms are, at its most simplistic, the travelling salesman analogy. Say, a salesman has to visit 5 cities in 4 days, but there are umpteen different pathways he can take to meet that objective, but which is the best? On a simple back-of-the-envelope it can be calculated easy enough in that example, but when you get on a large-scale like FedEx or train or airline scheduling scenarios, then computers usually have to calculate all the different pathways.
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In this case below, it runs thousands of different possible scenarios for the GE, and looks at the probabilities of particular “pathways to winning” state-by-state on ECV votes, falling to one or other candidate/Party based on aggregate polls to date, past voting patterns, demographics etc, its kind of a way of getting a handle on which ones might be truly “safe”, which might be battlegrounds (”marginals”) or toss-ups etc. In this one, the author ran around 10,000 pathway scenarios:
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But a warning, very much a site for the maths nerdy geek propeller-heads, and still just a ’snapshot’ as at end of April with a long way to go, and some inputs are “old” data, and may be unreliable:
. http://hominidviews.com/?p=1494
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On the lighter side of political opinion, has anyone seen any of the “Flineo” authored vids on Youtube? I apologise if others have posted them earlier, he or she) has posted several artistic short film vids in recent weeks, but my personal favourite in the ‘Flineo’ album is: ‘Winners don’t Yap” – (but it looks like I can’t access Youtube at the moment to give a URL – just search on User name “Flineo”.
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But one for Hillary supporters to enjoy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcdnlNZg2iM&feature=related
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And, I’m off to download the latest episode of Battlestar Galactica, and a mocha.
Cheers – Rain
136
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:33 pm |Permalink
131
gam
I recalled Kasparov blaming the skin heads for his street beating but hadn’t realised he’d gone to the dark side and embraced the little darlings.
My goodness, doesn’t politics make strange bedfellows?
Beaten by a vicious state repressive regime, he seems to decided to try playing the same game. I don’t like his chances.
Thanks for the update, and no, I’ll never expose a diagonal on the kingside gratuitously.
137
Andrew
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:35 pm |Permalink
having just realised that I was waiting for an 8 delegate result from the island of Guam on a saturday night, I have decided to go and get a life instead!!
138
Enemy Combatant
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:36 pm |Permalink
Yes, THR, Kirri and gam. History is fascinating stuff all right.
Perhaps Robert Bollard will have something to say on Vlad’s embrace of Holy Mother (Orthodox) Church over the weekend before we get into NC and IA with the passion of true devotees.
When we gather for that delicious moment after the last polls are in and the preliminary gabfestin’ is done; when the votes and dels get divvied up; when punters recalibrate the stakes; when deals are nodded upon in Executive Suites of generic hotels as briefcases and brown paper bags exchange hands.
When the future confronts us; when the Banshee is done with wailin’.
When Columbia and the planet lurches towards shared destinies.
139
Jen
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:39 pm |Permalink
Russia/ KGB/ PastorsauceGate??
The more they do it the better I would feel if I was Obama.
The moment anyone finds anything of substance let me know.
Why on earth would you (PB posters) want to sink this low?
Surely no one in their right mind would suggest that Obama is more corruted/able than the Clintons.
Get a grip, and start thinking about what should happen years from now, not whose flag you’re hanging from your parapet.
140
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:41 pm |Permalink
New Zogby poll has Obama ahead by 1 in Indiana and 9 in NC
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 10:56 pm |Permalink
140- So I should take the $6.20 on offer for Obama to win in Indiana?
144
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:03 pm |Permalink
RAIN
#135
Thanks for dropping by. Please keep doing so. Yes you are quite right , not too many wish to discuss policy what with just talking lofty aims and all that , but if you do not pick the candidate with the best equity policys to help people like Hillary policys do. What happens ? all you get is pollies earning a lot of money , going to lovely dinners & giving wordy speechs & of course making sure their Supa is OK.
Then next election the fplks are not better off , some are poorer and the Pollie makes more empt promises. Looked at that ite thanks , will spend more time on it. Enjoy yourself
Ron
145
Rain
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:09 pm |Permalink
I’m still here Ron, tonight anyway – am in and out web-surfing all over the place, crusing while waiting for a download of the latest episode of BSG aired in the US, Firday night their time, and some answers to my e-mails from those sleepy-heads up northern hemisphere.
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Just found an interesting US blog post, in response to our very own Aussie Loony Lefty Icon, Bob Ellis (who you may recall wrote a gross, crass piece on Hillary, at ABC’s ‘Unleashed’ last week)
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Check it out for a laugh at: http://shakespearessister.blogspot.com/2008/05/hillary-sexism-watch-part-eighty-eight.html
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:10 pm |Permalink
ron @ 132, despite your histrionics i’m not a reublican either.
147
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:13 pm |Permalink
Jen
there has been o many news legs in pastorgate , no one has had time to look at Obama’s oil relationships yet. He id support the Bush/cheney bill, good company there. Hillary voted no like a principled Democrat would.
Guess Ferny I struck gold with one of the 4 categorys not to reply from , just cann’t beat good luck.
Andrew , why you haven’t been watching the football concurrently
148
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:17 pm |Permalink
gam
If you’re interested, a fascinating account of Liminov and his colourful life and his connection with Kasparov and the NBP:
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:23 pm |Permalink
So when is Cyrillic script going to be enabled on PB? And Greek? Even Hebrew and Arabic for occasional pieces? Come on, Will, nothing adds more gravitas to a post than scribbly stuff and a quote at the end…
151
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:24 pm |Permalink
They are desperate writers of headlines on Guam:
BREAKING NEWS: 11 p.m. — Still no results yet from Democratic caucus
…doesn’t that get your heart rate up?
152
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:28 pm |Permalink
150
THR
I’m waiting for Sanscrit myself. Mind you, some posts are as indecipherable with just the current alphabet! LOL
153
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:29 pm |Permalink
RAIN
#145
enjoyed the post. doesn’t give us a good reputation. The US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks made them think Ellis was a conservative !
Strange the US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks because they have been the same ghere from Obama supporters and they sound like conservatives sometimes here too.
Their closing critique was humerous Rain
‘I’d like to say Ellis must be a conservative, but he isn’t; Steyn describes Ellis as “an Aussie leftie and an Obama groupie,”
The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
154
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:33 pm |Permalink
They may be running away for other reasons Ron
155
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:35 pm |Permalink
GAM
#128
you said you voted for Bush in 2004
Kirri speaks to you after that quote cause Kirri lives in fairland policy as well
I thought Kirri was a closet Repug but he does like to get praised otherwise he’ll drop off talking to you
156
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:36 pm |Permalink
Like that comment for example
157
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:37 pm |Permalink
Ferny
#154
no , you guys are policy shallow , what with the categorys you’re in I ‘m not surprised. As I said Ferny you scored in one of the 4 categorys , fitting with the latee eh
158
Rain
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:37 pm |Permalink
“The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
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Yeah *nodding*. Its a formula:
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Policy discussion:
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Hold fingers tightly in ears and chant loudly …la,la,la,la,la… until person gives up and goes away.
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, focus on “process” – math, rulez, math, rulez, math, rulez, math, math and more math (but only the ones that suit me)
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, repeat the mantra of ‘change’ – ‘hope’ – ‘unity’ – blah, blah.
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Rinse and repeat.
.
159
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:43 pm |Permalink
Oh Rain
you said it so concisely.
Its just I and you have seen thedevastion , and the assistance real policy can only start t make a little inroad ….but for some , the elitist-view lot, a Labor
vote in an election makes them feel good on the their way to suing som epor soul or to the jolly gentleman’s club
160
Rain
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:51 pm |Permalink
I must be getting old, I dont relate to “elitist”, I think they are trendies in my old Uni generational-speak – back in the late 70s, they were the rich kids of northern Sydney, slumming it over south side of Sydney, coz it was trendy to be a “poor” Uni student, eating Vogel’s bread and playing vegetarians.
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Having trips overseas, and showing off their purchases of exotic clothing or whatever from third-world countries etc, as “proof” of their contribution to, and genuine concern about 3rd-world poverty, saving the whales etc, while sipping imported French Chardonnay on Sydney Harbour yachts.
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All talk, no action.
.
161
Ferny Grover
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:53 pm |Permalink
That’s enough Ron! If you wanted a discussion, more of us would happily discuss policy with you. But you don’t want a discussion, Ron – you want an ARGUMENT – and frankly it’s not worth the hassle. This is not about gaining an understanding of different viewpoints to you Ron. For some reason you need to prove something to yourself – that you can win an argument. I’m not sure why you have such an inferiority complex that causes you to be this way,but I want no part of it.
And what’s more you consistently attack and abuse anyone who sees things differently to you. Take GAM above for example. So he voted for Bush? He openly shared his view and for that he gets abused by you.
It’s unnecessary Ron and it really needs to stop. I tried to tell you the other night that I will not play this tit for tat little game of yours, but you did not listen. I can’t abide abusers and bigots Ron, and this is what you are.
Until you learn some civility I will not read any further posts of yours.
162
Mathew Cole
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:55 pm |Permalink
To those who deify Barack Obama, I post this link:
Specifically, the “Truth vs Barack Obama” article. Each allegation is pertinent, each allegation is sourced, and the Republicans will ahve a field day with them if he becomes the nominee.
163
HarryH
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:55 pm |Permalink
Once Hillary has been beaten:
Finns, Rain,GG = Richard Dreyfuss
Ron = Bill Murray
What About Bob
164
Catrina
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:56 pm |Permalink
Thank you Ferny – someone needed to say it.
165
Ron
Posted Saturday, May 3, 2008 at 11:57 pm |Permalink
RAIN
‘elitists’-view based just another word for trndies , except they think they are even more superior
Here FINNS my colleague & I are talking about on the US thread about ThePastor’s rcial comments effect on the US election and about policys and Hillary’s equity policys. Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut , and giving the money to the less well off , and supertaxing oil companies for redistribution & alternative energy use giving the poor a decent healthcare.
They don’t even want to talk about such policys. Not interested which is hardly Labor based at heart my friend
and the ‘Obama supporters’ talking about Russian Liminov and his colourful life and his connection with Kasparov and the NBP and Putin in a literary discussion
ivort tower stuff I’m afraid
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Obama Takes Ordot; Sen. Clinton Captures Maina
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 03.MAY.08
11:10 p.m. Guam – The official results for the Democratic Party’s primary election in two areas reveal that Senator Barack Obama took Ordot while Senator Hillary Clinton won in Maina.
Obama took Ordot’s delegates with a vote of 37 against Clinton’s 18. Clinton won Maina, 22 to 19.
every time you are put under pressure on policy , you lack the detail and go silent or are uninterested. As for your lectures , that is typical of an elitist-view based support for Obama. Your sanctimonious blogs are just that, empty & shallow particularly on Obama policy which you’ve been shown up for. Nob thinking on politics
BREAKING NEWS: 11:50 p.m. — Obama leads after three districts counted
11:50 p.m. — Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino have 245 votes in the three counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 65 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo have 55 votes.
William , Ferny interrupted a conversation between me 7 Rain where no blogers were named or even implied. it was unwarranted 7 unjustified
He has no right to make interupting sanctimonious lectures to anyone and given the tone of his interrupting blog 3161 , if anyone should be given a lecture it should be him
Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). I enjoyed Hillary’s discussion of that issue with O’Reilly, (although I dont like her mid-western cackle either, but mid-westerners do – it goes with the local regional accent) I thought she really got that point across about ways of improving equity in access to health, education and taxation policy, and reminded me of Rudd with Kerrie O’Brien, or was it Laurie Oakes? or whoever – in a similar subject-matter interview last year. ie Her comment about “both of us” are in that tax-bracket , Rudd did the same thing.
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Speaking of Laurie Oakes, I still have bookmarked a somewhat old piece of his about how Rudd may not be keen on Obama, because of his preference for protectionist foreign trade policies:
. http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=449521&_cobr=optus
. If he means what he says, Obama would be the most protectionist US president for years.
None of this should be music to Australian ears.
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I thought it interesting, that Rudd had a behind-closed-doors meeting with Hillary, but open-with-cameras meeting with McCain, and only a phone call with Obama. can’t read anything to that, may just have been the demands of busy schedules of busy people.
perhaps you may return another time to talk Hillarys equity & social policys where blogers then present are interested in that area but its disappointing when some have no interest especially as there’s 45 million uninsured in the US and there is embarassment here because Obama’s healthcare policy has been demonstrated as a right wing choice only healthcare
and thanks for your thoughts
Ron
glad you also saw the Hillary interview with O’Reilly
the obama supporters here falsely claimed Hillary was on O’Reilly’s side !
and said nothing of importance. The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
you arre right , Obama is very protectionist & will hurt our exporters
Here is a sample ballot from Guam (with Billary’s name missing the B and an l).
WTF is going on with the male/female bit? What happens if all the male are crap and you only want to vote for females? They won’t let you.
PS Has anyone considered that it might be a bit tragic that Australians are sitting up at midnight watching the results of a Guam primary for 4 delegates in a US Democrat election when there are 4000 delegates in total?
The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
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Noooo..not entirely. The USA is the land of Hollywood, Disneyland etc. They are very, very good, Masters of the Art of Slick Propaganda, manipulative Entertainment and Manufactured Romantic Dreams. Make us look very provincial amateurs. Its very easy to be taken in by it, but a chunk of the US population have become de-sensitised, or innoculated against it.
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Youth vote for Obama for example. The younger groups have grown up with slick propaganda slime of 30-second false sound-bites about the Clinton administration, as well as romanticised and revised history in Hollywood movies about civil rights era etc. I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.
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That sort of thing doesn’t wash so much with older age groups, they lived those years and can remember the reality versus the romanticised revised version via Hollywood.
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Not really news – but this a good as I can get on a Guam update.
12:00 a.m. Guam – The results of three precincts are in, but the ballot counting at election central is still behind at this hour. After Maina, Ordot and Inarajan reported, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 26 percentage points.
But the manual counting this year seems to be taxing officials. In fact, Herbie Perez, chairperson of the Democrat’s nominating committee, has stopped overseeing the process to form another group with her at the helm. She told the Pacific News Center previously that she expected tabulations to be complete by 11:30 p.m.
However, its currently 00:48 in Gaum and no new news.
“Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). ”
No , you are not wrong RAIN , it is traditional ALP policy. the problem here is that Hillary has that policy and Obama does not (so the Obama supporters except one) just say nothing about that policy or any Obama policy
its all about the dream & Obama’s ‘character’ being better than Hillary’s. However a sound POTUS does not have to be likeable or tell the truth (both lie anyway) nor is it relevant if they have expediency history as Hillary does. Although after Pastrogate , the pastor now is expedient also with his 20 year friend , family Uncle & mentor so thats another good characteristic Obama has lost. Hillary is seen to be too ruthless so what , as if Obama is not ambitious and has not been rithless to get there.
However POTUS is about making judgement decisions (Obama over Wright failed that, didn’t know the mentor after 20 years) , having ticker (Obama failed that , he stayed in the Church , only ‘privately disagreeing) and about policy(we’ve been through that , Hillary has some sound ALP policys & Obama has not).
So what has Obama left , he talks eloquently , but very disingenuously deceivingly. and his opponent has an annoyingly cackle and can be dislikeable.
RAIN
#181
“I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.”
Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama
“Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X……Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama…”
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LOL, I guess not Tweety was still getting QUOTE: “tingles up his leg” UNQUOTE over Obama’s eloquence. (Talking of closeted poofs!) But plenty of others noticed it on the net-sphere, and some smaller local newspapers, regional networks etc – Youtube vids were all over, splicing Denzel Washington speech clips with Obama’s stump speech, One of his Rinse and Repeats (the one about not letting them “hoodwink” or “bamboozle” you etc, he must know it off by heart by now).
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Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons? Ohhh, does she want payback …And Lord Kos is also an ex-Republican, who writes a lot for the Cato Institute, which is Libertarian Party dominated
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RAIN
Hope you are enjoying a book or the football football or some other concurrent entertainment. I have not been onto any Guam site at all as there’s only 4 delegates up. But I’ve just checked my stats fom early Feb when I predicted Obama would win the delegate race and I had Obama 60/40 back in early in Feb. It left me with Obama 2 to 1 delegates and I gave each Candidate 1/2 of the other 1. I wouldn’t think the delegates will vary from Obama 2 to 1 and /2 each or Obama 3 to 1 delegates but is not going to decide the nominee anyway. Perhaps however it is a news positive for Obama as its a day news relief from the pastor but then the news will move back to Rev Wright or some other news story
“Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons?” Ohhh, does she want payback
No , I did not know that at all RAIN. Thanks for the info, your knowledge of US politics is a real bonus. i’ve only got mine from books and do my complicated analytical E/V stats based on many factors.
But Arianna Huffington , that puts my concern about huffington post now into context. It gets quoted here regularly by the Obama supporters as a gospel of independent jounalism. I kept reading their articles & after awhile of continued heavily pro obama articles I’d suggested they didn’t seem too independent to me , but the obamaphiles put it down to me not liking positive Obama storys
But most storys were pro Obama. now you’ve enlightened me , I can feel certain rather than an assumption. Thx
Ron – I have my Battlestar Galactica, which I download episodes direct from the USA, after they’ve aired there:) amongst other things — but sports ..nuhuh.. personally hate sports of all kinds, but since I live with a family, community, workplace, country and planet full of sports junkies, I dont usually make an issue of it..
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Just at a loose end tonight, and out for dinner earlier, far too much coffee etc, but can sleep tomorrow I usually have a life, but taking some time to catch up with things…
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Obama is welcome to his delegates, (like Guam *matters*?).
He can have his good news, we can be gracious, like Hillary so often is. The weekend polls will be out on Monday, US time, Tuesday ours. Usually SUSA releases a final one the day before a primary, and they have been within their margins of error on their finals, in all but one state, this season.
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Zogby is the worst of the lot, apparently Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama – and the methodology of Zogby has been blatantly cooked all year:)
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HuffobamaPost its called yeah…just do some googling on the name, even wikipedia, thin as it is, probably mentions it in passing -but should give you links to help fill in the blanks.
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Was the mass ‘walk-out’ or ’strike” by some of the better more balanced journos at Huffington mentioned here? Happened back around Ohio/Texas primaries.
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By the way , your comments about the not too popular Kennedys riled one Obama supporter whose produced a real volley at you but whose only argument was that Teddy does get elected. Geezovers dog representing the Democrats would get elected there. i think what upset the bloger was bloger is a supporter of the ‘liberal’ faction in the northeast as are the Kennedys , the royal elitists’ of Massaschusetts
Zogby. To be honest , i do not factor them in , their polling results in some primarys have been terrible.Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama , geez Rain you continue to surprise me with info. Any feel SurveyUSA as an odd big Hillary poll lead threw me
Tabulation half-done; Obama still in lead
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 04.MAY.08
1:45 a.m. Guam – With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.
Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.
i couldn’t avoid the maths being quoted here between the 10th & the 11th district totals. Votes counted after 10th , has had 51 votes counted & Hillary got 49. Not sure i believe that , perhaps a MSM mistake of figures misquoted
*nodding*, the old yankee Northern Democrats versus Southern Democrats – always been the fault line within the Dem Party. They never got over the Civil War, and are still split along that Mason-Dixon Line
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Although these days, it is more class-based than geographical, it still roughly holds that line of northern yankees, versus southern bubbas. northern yankees, like the Kennedy’s are “old money”, may as well be royalty of “old families” dating back centuries to the Mayflower. The Clintons have been called a “mixed Marriage” as in marrying across the Mason-Dixon Line. Thats why Hillary is hated separately to Bill, a traitor to the northern yankees, by marrying a southerner.
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very true. Its why a notheast Liberal Democrat never wins a State in the South
and they get thrashed in POTUS elections.
Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?
whilst water boiling , can I put up a thought thats been troubling me about Obama
As you do with the modern ’spin’ and advertising experts , the web site of all Candidates including the Roney & Hucks are all full of lovely words for the committed to glance aqt & to re-affirm their faith & quote from. None of them should be taken notice of. its what the Candidats say in interviews & debates that tell you their policys & how much they really know about them
With obama , after 12 weeks here , the most Obama supporters say in favour of him is 1/ good character vs Hillary 2/ anew style of politics , not the insider Hillary Washington etablishment 3/ racial harmony (well the Pastor blew tht up 4/ ‘a change to’ (but to what I do not know what)
NOTHING else. They will not say. What will be different for thUS people specifically. It all 1/ to 4/ lovely message , but where’s the contents ?
its like a used car salesman dressed up selling nothing
Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?
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Yeppers. Gore came close too. Edwards also very popular, but pipped by northerner Kerry – but you see why Edwards had to go on the bottom of the ticket in 2004?
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Bill was a very poor working-class southern boy too, who through academic excellence won a full scholarship to Yale, which is where he met Hillary.
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If the Party Super-Deez back Obama for the nomination, it will be because they’d rather lose the GE, than serve under a Clinton administration in Congress.
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Anyway, back to maths and polls and predictions – I’m putting Obama down a little in North Carolina, he should on demographics take it by 15% or more, but I’m taking him down to about 8-10 points, I’m just guessing that turnout will be down a little, and some Repub women are crossing-over in secret (wont admit to polls, or to their husbands etc that they like her *chuckle*) – and Clinton for Indiana at around 5-10 points like Pennsylvania/Ohio etc, which again should on demographics, be tighter or an Obama squeak – because the north of that state, is in the Chicago media network districts, but Clinton should take the southern counties easily.
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But then my predictions have been wrong about half the time, so far!
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I think the most astonishing I ‘ve found is Obama does come fom the Democrat faction of the Yankee liberal ‘royal family ‘ northeast with broad visions of society built on cultural attitudes of the rest of the community and ‘politically correct’ philosophys. It is a world of the mix of the superiority thinking ‘trendies’ , the ‘elitists , inteligentsia, the ‘intellectuals’ ,the snoby part of academia , the literary self admire set , the lattee set and Obama is & represents them.
These groups are heavily represented on this site as Obama supporters and alleged Labor supporters.
But its not the real world where even middle income people face challenges , let alone the poor & disadvantage, and they are not interested in this visionary nonsense. They want real policy solutions
Regretably Obama has tapped into the and 20’s 30’s college educated set disenchanted with current poor politic (with justificaction) idealistically hoping for better without realising the dream has no substance & the new politics promise is a con, pollies are pollies. The object should be to get better policy outcomes & policy accountability regulations & scrutiny which requires detailed processes outlined , both of which the disliked Hilllary is promising
Hillary think by 6% Indiana. Obama by 13% NC (I’m assuming reasonable ‘black turnout despite the pastor. but I would like you to be right on Indiana my friend
Another report confirming the earlier report of 768/680 advantage Obama (seems that GaumPDM.com is simply relaying news from Pacific News Center).
2 a.m. — Obama at 768 votes, Clinton at 680 after 11 districts counted.
Sen. Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Democratic caucus after 11 Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo and 49 in Piti for a total of 768 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo and 51 in Piti for a total of 680 votes.
I’ve organized to take 20 excited 10 years whov’e never been to the big time football before (plus their parents) to go today to a televised AFL game and I’m organized for all of them entry free which is a big help , with prime seats as well in the expensive area free & I’ve got to naturally look after all 20 of them & watch them for the day so I better get some sleep because so many youngsters of that age will probably be real excited & will keep my hands full, so my chips on shoulder , rudeness & my inferiority complex do not need to be exaserbated by tiredness. Can we talk another time & keep healthy RAIN
After 12 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti and 131 in Sinajana for a total of 899 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti and 89 in Sinajana for a total of 769 votes.
3:30 a.m. Guam – Despite being the home of Senator Barack Obama’s arguably most outspoken supporter, former Governor Carl Gutierrez, Agana Height’s vote was split nearly 50-50. Josh Tenorio from the Obama camp, speculates Republicans and Independents registering as Democrats for the day may have swayed the vote, but says he could not explain definitively why the village’s turnout was so close.
13 precincts have reported so far, and Senator Obama has kept his 6 point lead (1007 to 874).
4:15 a.m. — After 15 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains a lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus, with about 54 percent of 2,230 total votes counted thus far
And in response to Rain and Ron’s little love-in last night wherein terms such as “closet poofta”, etc were thrown about with such glee like naughty children who have stayed up after the adults – you do yourselves and your candidate no favours my friends.
It’s lovely that you found each other (Rain- you may live to rue the day), but the constant barrage against anyone supporting Obama is frankly ridiculous.
As Ferny said- no further discussion from me either.
5:40 a.m. — After 18 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains about 54 percent of the vote, leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. One of the largest districts, Dededo, still hasn’t been counted toward the total vote, however. The other two districts yet to be counted are Agat and Yona.
6:30 a.m. — With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama.
Hafa Adai, Bludgers, have you ever been greeted in Gaumanian before?
Tres Pacifique cosmo, non?
Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:
Catrina, you are formidable, a Bludger of focus and intensity. Bloody well done. My info is so yesterday, but post it one must, in the hope that we might glean a bit of demogro oil, eg, what is the % of US Fiorces voting in the Gaum total?
Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:
“HAGATNA, Guam — Barack Obama was leading Hillary Rodham Clinton in presidential caucuses on Guam, which has assumed unexpected importance in a historic Democratic race in which every delegate matters.
With 15 out of 21 districts reporting, Obama was ahead with 1,393 votes to 1,222 for those pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.
Four pledged delegate votes were at stake on the island 8,000 miles from Washington. Guam also has five superdelegates and some of those are being determined in the caucus voting as well. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/obama-clinton-vie-in-guam_n_99950.html
From my poorly edited HuffPo link: “More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.”
A quick squiz at Catrina at 220 indicates that when the dealin’s done, over 4000 voters will have polled. This is more than your common or garden gnome variety “heavy turnout”, it’s one king-tide of a turnout. Tsunami-esque. Textbooks will refer to it as Guam’s salute to the new Democratic Big Kahuna.
Perhaps slumbering Super Ds will harken to the Pacific people’s perturbation. At least for Obi, Brutusina’s run of “wins” has been shattered. In this game, as indeed in life, love and poker, little fish are sweet.
thanks guys -
so this should give Obama the bounce he needs. Fantastic to see so many get off the couch and vote: whatever else happens democracy is the winner in this election.
According to The Pacific Daily News, Mr. Obama won by just 7 votes. So given the proportional allocation of delegates, the result probably won’t affect the delegate math. However, an Obama supporter was elected to be the party vice-chairman, so he did pick up one superdelegate.
The time since march 11 has been purgatory for Obama. He was always going to lose Penn so this gave Clinton an eight week window to look like the front runner and try to get the supers to split her way.
She did make in-roads but trashed her reputation with the broader electrate. Also, critically, she failed to crack Obama – which is what she really need to do.
I think the dynamic is about to change on Tuesday – when the improbability of a Clinton win becomes clearer.
“Results of the count completed Sunday morning Guam time show delegates pledged to Obama with 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton’s slate. That means they’ll split the pledged delegate votes. Obama’s slate won in 14 of 21 districts.”
So The Kid won 2/3 of the districts and still was only 7 votes ahead?! Some race!
I love the way Al Gore is hanging in there with the bookies.
I guess the idea is that Obama and Clinton will beat each other to a pulp and Gore will step in at the last moment as a cleanskin and scoop the nomination.
“Obama was, I think, brought up and lived for a long time in an atmosphere in which occasional left-wing excess did not grate on his ears or his temperament as they would on people like, er, me. And his desire to connect to a black experience he never fully had himself also played a part in not distancing himself from some aspect of his pastor’s rhetoric or friends’ associations. But to go from this to the vicious attempt to portray Obama as a fraud, an actor, and another phony politician is a sign of the hard right’s nervousness. When you listen to Sean Hannity, you hear someone who looks at Obama and sees every racial fear he has ever had about black Democrats personified. The difficulty of making distinctions between, say, Sharpton, Jackson and Obama is just too much for him. They’re all black Democrats, aren’t they? They must all be traitors or far left anti-American hate-mongers. He doesn’t even hear the broader Obama message, the full Obama manifesto, the book, the countless speeches, and interviews and debates in which Obama’s broader post-racial, post-partisan appeal is exposed. One can only hope that most people will see the full picture. But the right-wing freak show machine will do all it can to prevent it.”
And his desire to connect to a black experience he never fully had himself also played a part in not distancing himself from some aspect of his pastor’s rhetoric or friends’ associations.
FG,
does that make him too black? Or not black enough? I forget which one we’re up to at this stage.
I think this is coming down to whether or not Obama can be seen as a uniting figure. The critics are attempting to attack his key message (uniting force etc) by painting him as an ‘extremist’ or ‘corrupt’, much in the way the media has been best at – through association (see McCarthy, David Hicks, Brian Burke, Haneef).
Recent Australian history suggests this isn’t effective. However, not knowing much about the states, i’d suggest its possible that this could effective. The article at 238 makes me kinda scared that this could be a successful action.
239
YoHoHo – the author is optimistic that the Bush years have created the environment that has made Obama possible. He argues that the nation is so disgusted with what they have become under Bush that they want to hose him and what he stands for completely out of their bloodstream.
A group of millionaire Democratic donors are threatening to stop supporting Democrats in Congress because Nancy Pelosi said that the people, not the superdelegates, should decide the Presidential nomination.
They’re Clinton supporters and they’re trying to use their high-roller status to strong arm the Democratic leaders.
So let’s tell Nancy Pelosi that if she keeps standing up for regular Americans, thousands of us will have her back.
A compiled petition with your individual comment will be presented to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leadership.”
Yes, it’s strangely both fascinating and boring in equal measure, depending on my mood. But you have to say it’s an eye opener to the weird world of American politics, eh? Especially in a period of such incredible economic turmoil and the realisation that the Bush years have been a disaster for them on so many fronts.
As for the ‘chick magnet’ is that anything like a ‘fridge magnet’? Can I stick it on a chick, and will it chirp chirp for me?
I’m not exactly sure what one does with such a device! LOL
Find my sympathies with Gore Vidal,except for his rather dour opinion of Obama.
And it isn’t just about wishing one or other side to win,but that they at least ‘walk the talk’ of democracy.
Ethics go out the door when the hunger for power overwhelms,n’est-ce pas?
And as for that ‘chick magnet’ and sticking it on a chick, as a small child my father used to tell me that if I put some salt on a chick’s tail,it would allow me to catch it!
(Spent hours in the henhouse until it dawned on me….! Doh!)
BTW don’t know of anyone who still has their JWH fridge magnets.
Does anyone?
There was actually far more terrorist activity in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s when the IRA, PLO and others were at their most active. Yet we’ve swallowed the line that the threat today is so great that we need a raft of new laws to clamp down on civil liberties, basic freedoms and justice. It was always a con.
well it’s all over folks. newt gingrich on the view proprogating the myth that hillary has more votes. he says she will win the nomination. quite an interesting reading of the math. Makes you realise how desparate the neocons are to face Hillary rather than Obama
Will Turd Blossom wilt under legal heat?
Yes, I think so, the spoilt fat-fcuk won’t know what hit him especially if prosecutors time the suit so that The Imbecile can’t architect Rover a pardon. ie, verdict isn’t delivered till after El Loco and the PNAC-people leave Signing Statement Manor. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/04/11/LI2005041100879.html
Reckon Froomkin does the best all round summary of the Sep Scene. If pressed for time, his is the first online full piece I read after doin’ the boot-up scootin’, finger-tappin’ ,Global Headline Hootenanny Hoedown. Aka, everything you ever wanted to know in the political universe in less time than it takes the axle of Evel Keneval to soar over the Axis of Stupidity—–which plain speakin’ folk know to be the line on the map joining Crawford Ranch to the White House.
‘Sep scene’ you say? As in Sep-tic in this case- the stench of cronyism seeps through the lot. Conyers has got a fight on his hands.
Was particularly struck by the quote:
‘They are trying to crash our party and we need to beat the [expletive] out of them in front of all the other would-be party crashers who are standing on the front lawn waiting to see how we welcome these dirtbags.’”
Could David Hicks,for one, be a casualty of that type of mindset in our fair land?
Asylum seekers?
Can’t remember where I read it but there was a analysis of the Bush family dynamics, and it included how Barbara Bush in particular was an “if you are not for us,you are against us’” proponent. Would be interested to know if anyone has read similar re the Clintons as often these domestic glimpses tell us more than all the cleverly-crafted speeches and well-coached debates.
deja vu. got a funny feeling that NC is going to turn out to be like NH. All polls point to Obama’s win but on election night a big big surprise for all the pundits..
Obama’s appeal to working-class whites faltering, polls show
By ALAN FRAM – 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama’s problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.
Those are ominous signals as he hopes for strong performances in the coming week in Indiana and North Carolina primaries that would derail the candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. Those contests come as his candidacy has been rocked by renewed attention to his volatile former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and by his defeat in last month’s Pennsylvania primary.
…….. Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., said Obama lost among working-class whites in the state because his message of how this generation’s time has come did not address their economic needs. “While it’s incredibly motivating and passionate and compelling, it lacks content,” Madonna said. “Hillary would come in and relate to them, talk about the specifics of her policy.”
Maybe off-topic, but I’ve just heard that the Democrats have picked up one of the two seats in Louisiana that had special elections on Saturday. (”Special election” is essentially equivalent to a “by-election”). Both seats (1st and 6th congressional districts) were deemed safe Republican districts, but Dem candidate Don Cazayoux has picked up the 6th district. (No word on the 1st district, but it’s a cushier seat and considered likely to stay in GOP hands.)
It’s maybe relevant to this thread, because the Republicans ran hard against Obama in these special elections, branding him a “liberal” etc in their ads (the usual muck peddled by the GOP). Looks like it failed badly.
P.S. This is the second seat in Congress to be picked up by the Dems this year. In another special election held in March, the Dems picked up a ’safe’ GOP seat in Illinois vacated by former speaker Dennis Hastert. (Illinois also happens to be Obama’s home state, and the state he represents in the Senate.)
L’Imbecile est triste. Le coq sportif flyboy avec codpiece n’ a pas Le Gateau Liberte a manger pour “Mission Accomplished” l’anniversaire #5. Awwwww. Quelle domage. Baisez-moi a la morte!
Guess the dumb schmuck will have to choke up on a mess of Freedom Fries instead! Maybe Jack Bauer can do the force feedin’.
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Megan, Sep Scene=the present situation pertaining to politics in the USA. Septic tank; rhyming slang for Yank. Current demographic functionally extends south of the Mason-Dixon line from about the time of the repeal of Jim Crow racial discrimination laws through Sister Rosa’s and MLK’s era.
Although I’ll grant you the stench association is apt in almost all matters PNAC/WHIG/Neocon and GOPper. And Brutusina’s coterie reached for the nose-pegs too when their Duck Slayin’, shot chasin’ candidate kicked up her heels doin’ the Faustian two-step as her ugly spin-sters (good evening Sidney Blumenthal) got medieval on Obi’s ass.
If the SD’s sole purpose is to go with the popular will, then why do they exist?
Their purpose is to pick the candidate who will do best in November. Obviously, I consider Clinton to be that candidate, but I can understand if they feel Obama to be that candidate, and act accordingly. What I cannot abide is the wailing of Obama partisans every time one goes for Clinton, and accuse the Clintons of “muscling” them.
, compare the HRC/McCain numbers to the BHO/McCain numbers, and conclude that Obama may be a riskier proposition come November. Especially once the Republicans start in on him in earnest. Bear in mind, they’ve been trashing Hillary Clinton for 12 years now, and she’s survived. Will he stand up to that? I do not believe so, especially in light of the following:
Above is a site containing an article “The Truth VS. Barack Obama”.
This is a laundry list of over 60 lies that Barack Obama, HIMSELF, has knowingly uttered, complete with sources and evidence. Some are trivial, some are insufficiently supported for my satisfaction, but what’s left is bad enough – especially for the candidate who has made so much mileage painting himself as the “New Politics”, clean and grime-free candidate.
Wouldn’t it be nice to see some of Rove’s Turds return home to blossom? This little freak has greased the rails for Georgie Poorgie and thought nothing of perverting the judiciary nor outing Plame (yeah, only Scooter got a parking ticket on that one, but Turd Blossom was up to his goitered neck in it) nor anything else he thought they could bury in the dungeon away from the public.
Repulsive is not a word I use lightly, but this little TB wears it perfectly.
It’s so nice to see his Republican Reich unravelling at the speed of light and his half-witted creation reviled as the worst president of all time.
Look on all your works Karl, they doth stink to high heaven.
Watch your language. I disagree with the Obama partisans on this blog, but no mane-calling, please. “Partisans” is not inherently insulting. “Bots” is.
Jen will no doubt recall a stoush between us on that topic, which I freely confess I lost.
Yesterday’s (US) changes to the superdelegate count:
Obama picks up 3 superdelegates: DNC Brian Colon (NM), the new add-on Inez Tenenbaum (SC), and new Guam Vice-Chair Jaime Paulino (GU). Clinton picks up 1, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD).
And MC I dont think I have wailed here either. I agree with you that the SDs should choose whomever they wish. My point has always been that the trend has been toward Obama since the start of the year, and that the Hillary supporters appear to think this will magically change
Catrina thanks for the SD update- wonder what would happen if enough came out to push Obama ahead? This is the last count that Hillary is actually ahead in after all
Uh-oh, looks like there’s a flaw in Zippy’s ceiling. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/comics/Zippy_the_Pinhead.dtl
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Yeah, Kirri, delighted you loath the bastard spawn of Lee Atwater as much as I, sir. There’s a special sink in the low-rent section of hell waitin’ for Turd Blossom. The faucet there oozes lava. And Karl always strictly adheres to his personal hygeine ritual of regular handwashing.
I can hear the demons taunting him now:
“Hey, Stumpy, who’s gonna win the 2036 GOP nomination?!”
Like Santa’s, Satan’s little helpers don’t muck around, especially when they’re on the case of hot damned soul. More persistent than a bunch of seasoned network marketers at an Amway gee-up bash.
There’s a 2 enormous problems with using any of the polls that I’ve seen so far that compares how Clinton and Obama go respectively against McCain.
The first is simply statistical – what we are actually looking for is how many extra voters either Obama or Clinton are estimated to bring to the table against McCain, but these polls aren’t specifically measuring that, what they are effectively measuring is two groups added together:
Group 1 – the people that will vote Dem regardless of the candidate
Group 2 – the voters that will only vote for either Obama or Clinton.
So if we have a big sample of 2000 voters that will likely vote, we know that both Clinton and Obama would get somewhere between, say, 1000 and 1200 of those voters.
But about 800 of those Democrat voters (give or take) would vote for either candidate at all times – so they are polluting the sample, they are people we effectively aren’t interested in.
Similarly, there seems to about 600 voters for every 2000 sampled that will vote Republican at all times regardless of whether Obama or Clinton are standing. They too are polluting our sample and we aren’t interested in them.
What we are interested in is the 600 in every 2000 max that are in some way temperamental voters for either Obama or Clinton.
So we are really only interested in 30% of the sample – but these polls are so small , usually less than a 1000 people, that we start from a position of an MoE on this group being at the absolute minimum 4%, but more likely closer to 6 and 7% on the numbers alone.
Even at 4% the MoE is bigger than the size of any difference between how Obama plays against McCain compared to Clinton.
On top of this we add the uncertainty involved in this not being compulsory voting – so we can blow out all the MoEs by 1.5 to 2 times what they are on paper simply because people that say they will vote aren’t guaranteed to actually vote. The 1.5 to 2 times blow out seems to be what get’s used by polling more sophisticated than the public pollsters in the US.
So by now – the whole thing has descended into a fairly deep level of pointlessness.
But wait – there’s more! That’s only one reason.
The other reason is we don’t actually know what either Obama or Clinton would do to rally their supporters to the other candidate should they lose. So not only are we dealing with numerical uncertainty larger than any vote difference between the two Dems and McCain, but we are also forced to ignore the biggest factor of all – whether either candidate could or would rally their own supporters behind the eventual nomination winner and how effective that would be.
So at best comparing Obama and Clinton against McCain using the simple polling that is being used is at best completely and utterly pointless.
And I don’t get this whole “Obama is failing with the white working class vote and cant beat McCain” or “Clinton is failing with the Democrat base vote and cant beat McCain” simply based on the results of a competition between Obama and Clinton.
The real questions are whether working class white voters prefer McCain over Obama or whether affluent liberal democrats or blacks prefer McCain over Clinton – which seems to be no in all cases so far, and looking more likely so when the contest starts proper and the Democrat political machine starts throwing big buckets of economic shit over that cranky old loose cannon McCain – a bloke so out of his depth on most policy issues that he makes Bush look good.
Finns:
Hillary-bashing is fine. Or Obama-whacking, if that’s your thing.
They’re the candidates.
What annoys me is the constant insulting of Obama’s supporters.
But we’ve been over this………..
Our wonderful candidates weigh in on the Guam results …
Firstly, Obama:
“I thank the people of Guam for making their voices heard and standing up for change,” Obama stated in the release. “Our campaign is based on the premise that change happens from the bottom up, no matter how far you may be from Washington. And on Guam, we’ve built a real grassroots movement for change with dedicated supporters from every village across the island.”
And then Clinton:
“I am grateful to the many people of Guam who voted for me and worked so hard to make today a success,” Clinton stated. “I want to congratulate Senator Obama for running a vigorous campaign in Guam and look forward to our next contests in Indiana and North Carolina. Today’s results further demonstrate that voters from Philadelphia to Dededo want a leader who will take swift action to get our nation back on track. I will be that President.”
#275, Jen , [What annoys me is the constant insulting of Obama’s supporters] – i should say TQ to the constant praises that i have been getting from the Obama’s supporters
The question is this: Have white Democrats soured on Obama? Apparently not. Although his unfavorable rating from the group is up five percentage points since last summer in polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News, his favorable rating is up just as much.
However, …
On the other hand, black Democrats’ opinion of Hillary Clinton has deteriorated substantially (her favorable rating among them is down 36 percentage points over the same period).
Finns- I don’t like it either way it happens. If I have been offensive to you I apologise. I will however continue to give Hillary the condemnation I think she deserves. (unless she beats Obama – and then i’d support her: anything is better than another republican. Even an almost-one).
Yep Possum, a more erudite explanation of exactly what I said last night to Herr Doktor about the viability of McCain with ‘disaffiliated’ sectors like white working class voters.
I’ll say it again: I just don’t buy it.
To assume that because they prefer Clinton to Obama they will therefore flock to McCain en masse is ludicrous.
Or even more bluntly, that a black man can beat white cadaver! LOL
Kirri – my guess would be that disappointed Clinton supporters would be more likely to back McCain than disappointed Obama people. After all, she is much closer to the conservatives than he is with her positon on many issues: war, national (in)-security, regressive fuel policies etc etc. If you supported her, I would think McCain would possibly be your second choice. Whereas Obama is so far removed from the existing political structure that if he didn’t get it, I’d probably just stay home, as the outcome wouldn’t really make much difference in the long run.
Jen at 284
I agree – its a case of ‘change in washington’ or ’status-quo’. Obama is the change candidate while both Clinton and McCain represent politics as usual – and my impression is that if Obama is not the candidate then it becomes a null event for a lot of the newly registered Obama supporters (or as you say, a stay-at-home moment).
Not by the time Obama has finished kicking McCain’s ass all over the country and reminded folk why their country is going down the toilet.
It would be a big leap from a Clinton/Obama policies to McCain’s, and Obama will be giving the voters a stark choice: more Bush, or something completely different.
All national polls show a huge majority saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, the Repblicans are on the nose and their incumbent is dragging his sorry ass along the floor of popularity polls.
Repubs just lost another seat, after 30 years, in Louisiana and it’s another blow to their strategy of reviling ‘liberals’.
Once the general campaign begins, I think you will see a very new flavour amongst Democrats who know that this time, their man can win. (Ok, or woman, if Hillary can kidnap a few busloads of supers and demands ransom!)
It’s a fascinatingly overlooked argument – that Clinton has run a campaign that has essentially marginalized the black vote, making it possible that what traditionally forms a large part of the democratic vote may be turned off by the attempt to essenitally wedge Obama on race.
Given that the black vote favours the Dems massively, it begs the question whether or not they would turn out for Hillary. I think that graph shows it would require a great effort from OBAMA to actually get the black vote out FOR clinton. Given her behviour, it would be a tough thing to ask him to do.
On this whole Obama/Clinton voters that wont vote in the General for the other candidate – it’s thrown up something interesting.
We know that there’s some chunk of Obama voters that wouldn’t vote in the election if Obama gets the nomination.
We also know that there’s some chunk of Clinton supporters that would vote for McCain if Obama got the nomination.
But if the rumours, anecdotes and whatnot are true that the Dem party at the top has started working with Obama on the presidential campaign proper – they would have done some serious sums, number crunching and serious focus group work to arrive at the point that Obama over Clinton is the way to go.
Because US voting is voluntary, not only the consequences of voters changing from Dem to Repub come into play, but also Dem and Repup voters not turning up to vote as well.
Thise Clinton voters that would switch to McCain were Obama to get the nomination are essentially worth twice the problem for the Dems as say an Obama voter not turning up to vote in the general election were Clinton to be nominated (where the former not only reduces the Dems vote by one, but adds one vote to the Repubs compared to an Obama supporter not voting just reducing the Dems vote by one with no other Repub benefit).
So if it’s true that the Dem party strategists are already going with Obama, that means some combination of the following has come out very strongly in their focus group work:
1) Obama looks likely to gain enough independent and moderate Republican voters to offset or partially offset the Clinton voters that would vote for McCain in a contest of Obama vs. McCain
2) The number of Obama supporters that are likely to not turn up and vote in the general if Clinton got the nomination is significant and…
3) There would be more parts of the Clinton vote that can be captured in the general election by targeted Democrat strategy running with Obama than there are parts of the Obama vote that can be captured by targeted Democrat strategy running with Clinton.
4) Obama wouldn’t mobilise the Republican base as much as a Clinton nomination would – meaning the Dems need to get out a smaller vote to win.
5) There are more ordinarily Republican constituents that would be open to a successful Dem political targeting strategy running with Obama than there are the same for Clinton. Which if true would be an interesting insight into the type of strategy the Dems under Obama are planning to run.
If the Dem party at the top is already working with Obama on the the pres campaign proper – some or all of those things would have to be happening in part or whole, to a fairly significant overall degree one would think.
catrina at 279, thanks for those figures. Funny how the Clinton camp, conservatives and MSM (are they all the one organisation now??!!) can try to form a narrative eg. Obama’s ratings dropping for white voters, when as you day, both approval and disapproval have gone up, ie. less undecideds
And Finns, while we are talking about abuse from both sides, you have to concede that most Obama supporters here have said they would much prefer Hillary to McCain. You and Ron on the other hand have refused to back Obama against McCain. I think this says more about you than any name-calling
Ah, the voice of psephological marsupial reason!
Possum, your analysis has a definite “you know it makes sense” ring to it. What is it with the Sep commentators that they possess such un-facility with simple statistics? In a land where everybody wants to be an expert, this is a dreadful disappointment, even though corporate/MSM interests are more vested than democratic.
Can’t wait for Obi to cut loose on the “best” the GOPpers could nominate. By popular acclaim, he’ll have the policy-befuddled warmonger, McBombster, for breakfast. Then Obi will get on with the job of guiding his nation and the planet through exceedingly perilous times.
That’s the dream; demo(the people)cracy(rule). Delivering it will be another matter entirely.
Ecky, it’s the case of the black man beating the white cadaver!
Thanks Poss, that’s exactly the way I’ve assumed it to be, and NOT a case of the Supers refusing to move away from Obama BECAUSE they would be seen as RACISTS!
That argument does not even pass the smell test, let alone a serious psephological one! A right howler as I said yesterday.
“It’s a fascinatingly overlooked argument – that Obama has run a campaign that has essentially marginalized the white vote, making it possible that what traditionally forms a large part of the democratic vote may be turned off by the attempt to essenitally wedge Hillary on race”
Why? Because the POTUS voting demographic is still roughly 83% white, 10% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian and Others. So there is 90% for Obama to marginalize and 10% for Hillary. So who do you think has more to lose?
“Around 337,000 North Carolinians have already voted in their state’s primary, a fraction that is likely to represent approximately one-quarter of the eventual turnout. According to some data mining done by the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, around 38 percent of those voters have been black. As you’ll find from playing around with our prediction tool it is very hard for Obama to lose the state if black turnout winds up at 38 percent. Even if he “only” won the black vote 85-15, and lost the white vote 70-30 — he would still win the state by 2 points if black turnout was 38 percent. If we instead use the numbers from Survey USA’s most recent poll: Obama loses whites 61-30, but wins blacks 87-11 — he would win the state by 10 points given those turnout demographics. EDIT — the percentage of black voters is apparently 39.3% based on the very latest numbers.” http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/tarheel-tidbits.html
Finns, it aint a zero sum equation though, is it? Obama has obviously not marginalized whites, or he wouldn’t have won the whitest states along with the blackest. This is fact, not opinion. On the other hand, the Clintons have annoyed blacks with their craziness (’fairytale’, ‘Jesse Jackson’, Alabama comments, this latest robocall stuff – which seems to have created a spike in the black vote – should I go on?) and this is the 30-35% of the Democratic vote locked in first in any winning election.
The Poss said it all in #293: “Thise Clinton voters that would switch to McCain were Obama to get the nomination are essentially worth twice the problem for the Dems as say an Obama voter not turning up to vote in the general election were Clinton to be nominated (where the former not only reduces the Dems vote by one, but adds one vote to the Repubs compared to an Obama supporter not voting just reducing the Dems vote by one with no other Repub benefit)”
Fair point. And its is fair to say that he has done something to marginalize the white working class vote (the bitter comments).
However, i think the Clinton campaign to this point has done more to antagonize this segment. And Pancho makes a fair point that it Obama has managed to maintain significant parts of the white vote in a way that Catrina showed that Clinton has not.
Come on Finns, it’s over. Here’s an article for you to consider though, by Andrew Sullivan, who has largely been a step ahead of the game all Primary season. His thesis:
‘Clinton simply cannot overcome the edge he built up in February and March, however cruel his April turned out to be. And the superdelegates — who will ultimately decide — have also been slowly trending his way.
…So what is she up to and what is Obama to do about it? There are three main theories behind Clinton’s refusal to acquiesce to mathematics: she simply cannot tolerate losing a nomination she believes she has a dynastic right to; she is trying to ensure that Obama loses in 2008 in order to run again herself in 2012; or she wants to be offered the vice-presidential spot on an Obama-led ticket. I’m beginning to suspect the last option is the most plausible, and it gives Obama a potential opening: why not give her what she wants? An Obama-Clinton ticket would certainly give the Democrats a massive sigh of relief — and perhaps some euphoria.’ http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article3866584.ece
Seems, at face value, like a pretty bad idea to me, given the ‘Commander in Chief’ threshold line, her ‘electability’ stuff and that buffoon Bill. But it probably becomes a real option if things continue after Indiana.
#303 – The last time the Dems won POTUS was someone called Bill Clinton in 1996. He won 49% of the votes made up of: 36% – Whites, 8.4% Black, 4% Hispanics, 0.6% others. I would say that the Hispanic votes would equal to the Black votes today.
So in the general election, the Black votes are not as critical as in the Primaries. It is still the white votes and the emerging Hispanic votes that will decide the election.
Two terms of the Grinning Chimp and his cohort of vile bastards later, and the ‘white’ vote will NOT be voting on colour.
David Brooks said it on Newshour the other day: ultimately an Obama/McCain contest will not be about race.
My joke about the black guy beating the white cadaver is more about the cadaver’s lineage than the tint of his opponent. In fact I’m taunting those who keep seeing this combination of contestants in those terms.
A brief summary of the Repulican that lost in Louisiana:
For two decades, Mr. Jenkins has been one of the state’s best-known — and most polarizing — political figures. He led an effort in the Louisiana Legislature 18 years ago to enact the nation’s toughest anti-abortion laws, which tore the state’s politics apart. He was the Legislature’s most outspoken across-the-board opponent of taxes and government spending.
…I guess he’s ‘bitter’ now! LOL
The Dem was also a social conservative, but despite the Repuggly attack on him as a ‘liberal’ and a Pelosi hugging commie -scum-tax-and-spender, the Repugglies lost.
Pancho at 304, surely Hillary is smart enough to see the maths. I think she cannot accept that this nomination is not hers, so hasnt pulled out yet. I dont want to believe she wants to destroy Obama’s chances for president so she could run in 2012, surely she’s not that evil.
(While waiting for train from Nuremberg to Berlin)
Andrew Sullivan is sometimes right but often wrong, as one would expect from someone who tries to be a gay catholic conservative libertarian Republican all at once. I think he is wrong here. I think Clinton’s motive is none of the above: it is that she genuinely believes that Obama’s nomination would hand the election to McCain. She is far from alone in that view.
Of course the delegate arithmetic is against Clinton. But if she wins IN comfortably and either wins NC or comes close, the writing will be on the wall – Obama is going down in flames. Then the supers will be forced to choose between their fear of being labelled racists and their duty to the Democratic Party. I suspect not enough of them will have the courage to do what they ought to do, and that Obama will indeed be nominated.
Now, a lot can happen between May and November. Maybe Bush’s odium will be enough to get any Democrat elected. But given McCain’s record of independence from Bush, I doubt that. Iraq and the economy are both working against him, but the Repubs have a proved record of winning white working-class voters on cultural conservatism issues regardless of “objective” considerations.
Obama has left himself wide open to attack from this angle. He is now doubly damned as an upper class white liberal elitist AND as an angry-black-grievance-monger. White working-class voters don’t like either of these types. Given his ineptitude so far, I doubt Obama has the skills to get out of this box and win crucial states like OH, PA and MI.
“Then the supers will be forced to choose between their fear of being labelled racists and their duty to the Democratic Party. I suspect not enough of them will have the courage to do what they ought to do, and that Obama will indeed be nominated”
You just cannot be serious!
Like I said, how many homophobes cross dress for fear of being labelled homophobes?
It is, not to put too fine a point on it, bollocks.
I didn’t understand the analogy last time and I still don’t. Why don’t you address the point of substance instead of making your usual cheap and stupid remarks?
The rally was quite scary actually. When I arrived on Thursday evening, the neo-Nazis had just finished their May Day rally, and the station was full of beefy ugly guys wearing Nazi tee-shirts (but no swastikas, which gets them instantly arrested and roughed up by the Bavarian riot police, who are not to be messed with). I was later told it was the biggest neo rally here for ten years. Few of them are native Nurembergers, however. They are mostly unemployed from the former East – products of a fine socialist education.
It’s called the delegate count Jen. Unless all those lily-livered “don’t call me racist” Supers chicken out and flock to the Clintons for a re-run of the HillBilly show! LOL
But what would I know, I’m just an “ignorant loathing leftie”.
You insist on this argument that the Supers are all wimpy little liberals who don’t want the opprobrium of turning down a weak candidate because he’s their token nigga?
That’s absurd, and if you don’t know it, then someone should tell you.
Adam, did you catch any of the discussion about the Russian mob, the Liminov crew?
They have that Nazi motiff with an odd Russian twist, but are actually leftwing agitators against Putin’s thugs.
All very inverted and weird, but a scary phenomena if you meet in on the streets. Putin’s troopers would be worse, but there’s so many angry young men that it would seem another wave of fascism could never be far away if things got desperately ugly (ie world recession).
Actually Adam, a good case can be made that the Republicans have already started on Obama. After Hillary’s win in PA, the RNC sent out 18 emails about Obama through the following Monday, and none about Hillary. Add to this elements like Limbaugh’s ‘project chaos’, FOXs looping of Wright, and the neo-con press elements’ disdain for Obama generally, and you can conclude that he has pretty much been copping a drubbing for several fronts (some inside the Democratic Party) for the good part of a couple of months now.
And he still leads McCain in the General polling, according to the RCP averages (http://realclearpolitics.com/). Add to this the fact that Obama does not yet have the DNC (officially) campaigning and spending for him, along with the fact that this polling is being distorted by its three cornered nature, and I reckon Obama is looking pretty good.
Harry, so far as I know AIPAC is very happy with all three candidates.
Clinton has been handling Obama with great restraint all things considered. The Wright and “bitter” imbroglios are all his own work. What will happen when the Repubs wheel out their dirt machine? He’ll be blown off the park. Non-elite white voters will defect in droves.
Clinton hasn’t thrown all that she could have, but polling has also showed that every time she has gone particularly negative, she has lost ground.
She has also had a pretty easy run, because of the campaign that Obama has been running. She has tried to goad him into a response to undermine his claims to new politics, and he has kept a lot back that he could have thrown. This article previews some of what Obama could, and the Republicans could, use on Hillary: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10010.html.
Hey Pancho-
posted the same link in the early hours of the morning, but appreciate the thought.
Adam, political differences aside for a moment the neo-nazi thing sounds very scary. Seeing racism in all its reality is a remimder of where we can so easily go i guess. Let’s hope whoever wins can stop this scourge once and for all.
321
Adam Carr Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Not according to current polling, Andrew, and the Repubs haven’t even started on him yet.
But, if we read Possum’s arguments at 273 and 293 we can claim that the ‘current polling’ tells us no such thing.
Once again, Adam Carr is arguing that Hillary Clinton is the best candidate because he says she is.
That’s his opinion, and he’s got every right to it. I just don’t think the line about Supers being scared to drop the black guy makes any sense on 2 fronts:
1. Politicians have NO shame! LOL In other words, they’d drop him like a hot potato if they did not think he’d further their careers. Call me racist, they’d say, and move right along.
2. Supers are reading polls too, and they can see that Obama is a threat to McCain in more than a couple of swing states. OK, it’s got risks, but Obama does not carry consistent negative polling like Clinton.
Supers hiding behind the black guy because they’re too sensitive to criticism is absurd, and the line of only blacks and white northern liberals will support Obama is Carr’s argument from the beginning. He told all of the ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ they’d be crying by Feb 5th.
Oh, well, he may be wrong, but at least he’s been consistently wrong.
They are petrified of Obama and what he means to their ownership of Washington…hence the frenzied attacks throught the “Right” media lately.
I mentioned a few days ago it will be interesting to see what Obama does with Republican guys like Hagel and a few others during the General Election.
Foreign Policy and Iraq and its tentacles will be a huge part of this election.
The people hate it. Most Democrats, most Independants and a fair portion of Republicans.
Obama plus Dean and Pelosi and Gore and Edwards Dems plus independants(maybe Bloomberg) plus antiwar Repugs will be a powerful force ganging up on the old Bombmeister and his neocon rabble.
I think Obama is keeping the negative stuff for the real fight against McCain.
Right now he’s in the crossfire between both Clinton and McCain. This is his low point.
After the May 20 primaries I he’ll will lift a gear and start claiming victory on pledged delgates and putting pressure on the supers (if they have not already moved in numbers).
Once the nom is in the bag and the democratic party is onside he’ll lift again in his attack on McCain. At that point we’ll start to see exactly why the republicans are so worried about him. My guess is the POTUS polls will be 5-10 points more favourable than now.
Right now he’s keeping his powder dry and running the clock down. It looks lame, makes Clinton supporters think they have a chance, but its the best strategy for the end game.
I’m a bit worried about Grinch-
Maybe he joined the Synchronised Swimming Team without proper rehearsals or nose clips.
I think Glen some obtuse farewell until September the other night – maybe he went backpacking in Europe with the other teenagers on the KonTiki tour.
“The Louisville Courier-Journal — the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana — has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky primaries.” http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/4/6335/02750/813/508722
I agree WTR.
It also reinforces his stance that he doesn’t want to sink to the depths of the usual political shitfight. If the guy looks slightly annoyed the MSM comes out in force, so if he started slinging the mud like The Clampetts or the Repugs they would make a meal out of him being “just another dirty politician”. The more he rises above the fray the more sincere (and different) he looks, while Billary and McCain become more fused.
Latest Zogby tracking has Obama in the lead by 2% in Indiana (43-41). But MOE of 4.1%. Starting to look good for my money at $6.20 (If it comes in the beers are on me).
And after just checking the betting markets: Things are getting closer in Indiana…. Obama is into $3 (halving from last night… That is not bad in a day).
What is it with Zogby? They’re always such a beautiful set of numbers for we Obama supporters….So good that they just seem too good to be true. How reliable have they been?
Ferny-
of all the pollsters on RCP which is the one that has proven to be closest to the actual results. (I guess I could work it out myself, but pretty sure someone else has…)
Do any of them (polls) ever get close, or are we all avidly watching a complete fabrication dreamed up the MSM to keep us glued to their sites/ papers etc?
Surely someone out there must have a better idea than the PB posters?
I, for one, have none at all apart from gut-feeling and my own opinion.
so, if that’s as good as we get…
I call it for Obama, with Hillary as attorney general, and the GOP getting the thumping they deserve- bit like what happened here really.
It’s a tough act, keeping AIPAC and the Zionist Neocons (is there any other brand?? LOL) happy, and yet signalling to the vast majority of liberal J3ws in the USA that you support Israel’s right to exist, but not it’s right to imprison the Palestinians and starve them.
What the Neocons have done is hijack the agenda and force everyone to accept that their extreme rightwing view is what the majority of Israelis and the US diaspora think.
This is a lie, they do not. But saying so in the US can get you lynched by AIPAC and it’s rottweillers.
It reminds me of George, getting the Palestinians to vote, applauding the concept of democracy for the towel heads, until of course they voted for Hamas.
Man, democracy really_sucks when they don’t vote for your choice!
So Obama is ’stealing’ Clinton’s prize.
Of course he ain’t doing it by himself. Several hundred party people, ALL white northern liberals apparently (except for the black ones! LOL) are helping him!
The freakin’ aw-bloody-dacity!!! Codge, this is a crime!
Onya Jen, I love your determined belief in the inevitable triumph of good over evil!
On Zogby, I recal Rain’s comments last night that Zogby is owned by a guy whose brother is an Obama supporting SD. Hence, she argued, Zogby’s polls are biased towars Obama.
For an organisation whose business success relies on the accuracy of its product, it seems like an odd business plan to trash your reputation to keep a relative happy. And ultimately what purpose does it serve when you’re proven to look like a goose on election day? Lots of disappointed paper happy to add to the piles of egg on your face.
There are new groups like J Street popping up in New York preparing to take on AIPAC.
The majority of American Jews and Israeli Jews do not want AIPAC representing them.
A year ago i didn’t think the downfall of AIPAC and it’s influence on Washington could happen but maybe, just maybe we are seeing it.
Starting with Mearsheimer and Walt’s essay and now well funded Jewish groups like J Street and the upcoming AIPAC trial are portending dark clouds for them.
Obama could just very well usher in a realist Foreign Policy that gives Israel its deserved protection , but is even handed.
Polling companies have little integrity. It is fairly obvious they are becoming mere Party instruments…within the margin of error of course +/- 10% lol
Rasmussen are clear Republican urgers
Susa are clear Clinton urgers
Zogby are clear Obama urgers
and on it goes….until their final polls, which is what they’re judged on.
Cynical…but hey, if you’ve been watching polls like all us have, the trend becomes obvious.
Black liberation theology, Wright, MLK and all that:
What about his statement about — and he repeated it again on Monday — about the U.S. government putting the AIDS virus in the African-American community?
Some may regard that as a trope for known, unjust practices, unjust medical practices against people of color.
Such as in Tuskegee?
Such as the Tuskegee experiments. Or America’s complicity in Agent Orange. Or the American government’s longtime denial of Gulf War syndrome. So that kind of becomes a rhetorical trope which is a heuristic shorthand for all of that — for a failed healthcare system in America and failure to do anything about it. And while people may viscerally disagree with Rev. Wright’s claim there, and while it may be clearly undocumented and unfounded, you’re also talking about a man who had an HIV/AIDS outreach ministry to African-Americans, as well as gays and lesbians, in the 1980s, when the president of the United States, Ronald Reagan, wouldn’t even say the word in public.
…good interview in Salon for those who want to see past the YouTube moments and get some history.
“The Louisville Courier-Journal — the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana — has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky primaries.”
Pancho, this endorsement will bring a smile to The Louisville Lip, formerly Cassius Clay and for 41 years, Mohammed Ali.
There’s a fantastic story surrounding the large print That Obi has of “The Greatest” in his Chicago Law office “front of house”. I told it several months ago in detail here, but the print is of the moment(s) when Ali got some serious respect from his opponent who had tried to belittle Ali’s newly adopted name. Same sort of respect that Barack Hussein Obama is about to get in 2008, forty one years later.
Cutting to the chase, Ali’s opponent refused to come out for the ninth round, Ali could have put Tyrell away in the fourth but he had a point to prove to “Uncle Tom” Tyrell and the white world in general.
Remember a large print of the “What’s my name, Uncle Tom!?” moment is on OBi’s law firm waiting-room wall. Americans take notice of stuff like that. Even Rocky Balboa supporters.
With the high military population and relatively low median income I figured it would be another Hillary win. I was surprised that Obama led the whole night.
By the time I went to bed, The Kid has been keeping a lead of roughly 100 all evening. I awoke to find he had won 2 thirds of the districts (14 of 21) but had only won by 7 votes.
Actually, one of the saddest things I’ve read in all this has been a superficial anaylsis of the Guam vote which argued that Clinton was disadvantaged because the place had the smallest proportion of people over 65 in any race yet. Yes, of course, we all know that the oldies have ben favouring Hillary. What seemed to escape (or be irrelevant) to the journo making this commentary was the fact that people in Guam tend not to live past 65.
…that pretends to examine Obama/Wright but ignores McCain/Hagee and his erstwhile friends Falwell and Robertson.
We’ve been over this, but Rich shovels right down into the muck that passes for journalism but is, in essence, unmitigated racism and partisan pandering.
Yesterday or the day before (or even maybe a day before that) we were talking about the Clinton bable on Iran and how this played as a large negative in the geopolitical spectrum. While you may have heard it here at PB first – the subject has raised it’s ugly head over on the TPM.
Its only 12:23 on the east coast – so its reasonable to assume anything can happen in th next few hours – but as far as the morning is concerned, it’s a draw, Hillary +1, Obama +1. Hillary Clinton captured DNC Robert Martinez (TX) while Parris Glendening (MD) goes for Obama. I.e. numbers as far as the lead don’t change – but the number of opportunities drops by 2 – and when you do the analysis, its more pain for Hillary than it is for Barack.
And so – the core numbers give 21 advantage Clinton (same as yesterday):
Obama: 248
Clinton: 269
And with the Pelosie contingent, advantage Clinton by 13 (same as yesterday):
You had me all worried, investigating, and researching all sorts of things as a result of your #354 comment. I may be young, and while I have not read “Uncle Tom’s Cabin”, your reference to Tyrell immediately placed me in a difficult moment – was the name Tyrell a synonym of Tyrell as in the Tyrell Corporation and the obvious parallels between race relations and retirement. So that got me digging into all sorts of background information because in part it made so much sense. But what really hurts is that in my investigations I discover that the spelling is different – the guy in the fight spells his name differently to the the guy heading in the corporation – and at this moment or realization I hit a brick wall (and it was painful). As a consequence I have to push you PB rating down by two points but all the same – I’m stuck with a valid argument – bugger – life sucks.
Catrina at 365, my PB rating drops by 2 by you. That’s nice. At least you havn’t relegated me to deathwatch!
In a nutshell, Ali was not treated with due nominal respect by his opponent. Tyrell insisted on publicly calling Ali by his “slave name”. Things were bad enough with whitey “grinnin’ in your face” in Louisville and Memphis and elsewhere in the Land of the Free, but enduring the oppobrium of another black man who was acting in a racist manner(ie. as an Uncle Tom; keeping his fellow “jigs” in order for Massa) was not ignored by “The Greatest”. In the aftermath of the “sweet science” contest, Ali gained not only a win from the fight, but some respect for himself and his people from a wider mix of Americans. The lesson was not lost on Obi.
Race is the elephant in the room in this election. And the pacyderm is not exclusively GOPper as evidenced by the slurs of Brutusina and her boosters on Obama. There are indications that a majority of Americans are ready to move on from the days of slavery, Jim Crow, irrational xenophobia and ethnically and pigmentally induced prejudice. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as POTUS 44, would usher much of that irrational hate from the hearts, souls and minds of 21st century Americans.
Last night I read all three Op Ed pieces in the NY Times, Dowd, rich, Friedman, and if you didn’t know that the NYT had endorsed Clinton for the Democratic nomination, then you would not have discovered it by reading those articles.
Friedman’s article is essentially a lament for where the USA has gone off the rails, lost its mojo and been driven by idiots into the swamp. And to those who think inspiring a generation to get involved in politics, to make a committment to improve things is no small thing. It’s as pro-Obama as one could be without saying so.
Rich derides the rightwing racism and free passes to the Republicans, and Dowd is more scathing of CLinton than Obama.
It proves nothing, but it’s the zeitgeist moving towards the kid.
In his younger days as a soccer player for Lafayette Parish, the “Ragin’ Cajun”, Little Jimmy Carville, demonstrated a great deal of promise as a ball distributor.
FG, looks like you correctly picked the polling trough yesterday:
‘CBS) Democrat Barack Obama appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.
Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent.’ http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml
It’s not the sh!t that gets thrown at you, it’s how you bat it.
Those who claim that this will hurt him in November are not paying attention. Clinton is defusing McCain’s bombs before he even gets a chance to throw them himself.
By 49-45, respondents think it’s a bad idea. This includes Dems (50-47) and Independents (60-32) but not Reps (37-58). Of course this could be the phenomenon of lying to pollsters about tax cuts showing through, but at face value, it looks like bad policy and bad politics by Hillary.
Carville and his deadshit wife would have to be the ugliest couple in America…and i’m not talking about physical appearance.
Just imagine their dinner parties…1 night Jimmy takes them to plot with The Clampetts … and the next night Mary takes them to plot with Dick and Elizabeth Cheney.
Further to that KR, (this may have already got a mention?) from the Weekly Standard:
‘And what caused this display of intense irritation? She’s running a right-wing campaign. She’s running the classic Republican race against her opponent, running on toughness and use-of-force issues, the campaign that the elder George Bush ran against Michael Dukakis, that the younger George Bush waged in 2000 and then again against John Kerry, and that Ronald Reagan–”The Bear in the Forest”–ran against Jimmy Carter and Walter F. Mondale. And she’s doing it with much the same symbols.
Is McCain wedging himself and Clinton me tooing? (There’s an expression that’s gone off the radar lately!)
Republicans, if they keep this pathological aversion to taxes will end up as the loony rightwing party exlusively. Maybe they should go and live in a few countries where tax collection is not performed, and bribery and corruption usually take its place.
It’s the Reagan myth flying too close to the sun of reality. Good to see Hillary chasing McCain into the thin air.
It’s becoming clear that all this plays into Obama’s message: Washington is mired in the wrong politics and treats the punters like dumbarsed morons, appealing to the lowest common denominator.
They are dancing his tune, and more and more people will start to see it exactly that way.
I’m giving Glenn’s piece four stars, Kirri. If Team Obi arn’t prepared to deal with, nay trump, any Atwater/Turd Blossom-type smears then they are not ready to govern.
Now Brutusina’s mob are desperately trying to float the “nuclear option” in trying to gouge a bodgie delegate advantage. The Kid needs a solid performance on Tuesday to STFU his Dem detractors, relegate Her Stridency to sigle digits on Slate’s deathwatch, and show some Robert Downey “IronMan” Junior insouciance to the GOPpers and PNAC-people.
Qld is enjoying a day off for Labour Day. The old union slogan was “8 hours work, 8 hours play, 8 hours sleep, 8 bob a day.” “Ridiculous! The Establishment cried” (including business, the church and most politicians at the time). “They’ll rise above their station!”
We’re still rising.
Anyways, there’s been some movement on RCP averages. After creeping up from 1.3 to 1.4 to 1.5 in the national averages over the course of yesterday, Obama had leapt to 2.9% of Hillary overnight. This is largely due to a CBS/NYT poll showing Obama back at his pre-Wright figures of 12 points clear of Hillary. Rasmussen has them tied over the same period and Gallup has Obama up by 4.
Indiana and NC are unchanged on 5.8 and 7 respectively.
There’s something funny going on at Politico. Ben Smith seems to have given up on being Hillary’s press release agent and is now pro-Obama. It’s a bit like the GG endorsing the Ruddster. I found his coverage of Hillary’s very good win in Pennsylvania quite muted as well. Either his bosses have told him to pull his head in or he’s decided that when the real campaign starts (on June 15th?), he want’s Obi’s supporters to use his site.
And just to remind everyone of the PB Hillary ConcessionWatch. I’m not sure how Pancho and HarryH are feeling…
JV – 23 April @ 1000
Jen – 24 April @ 1000
Dyno – 24 April @ 1400
EC – 25 April @ 0900
HarryH- 7 May @ 1200
Pancho – 8 May @ 1200
Ferny – 3 June @ 2145
Asanque- 10 June @ 1400.
Diogenes- NEVER
The great gun non-debate is about form rather than substance. See a href=”http://laborview.blogspot.com/2008/05/shooting-first-democrat-candidates-gun.html”>Shooting first: the Democrat candidates gun policies for more.
I suspect the primaries will be like Guam, no help. Barack usually does better in caucuses.
I must admit I am now getting to the point where I hope Obama wins quickly from here and Clinton gives up. I just read on John Quiggan’s blog that Clinton has repeated McCain’s loopy “gas tax holiday” promise. This puts her at odds with democrat policy on what (to me) is a key issue. She is really getting desperate for the SUV/bumpkin vote and saying anything to get it. I’m quite dissappointed. Mind, given Al Gore’s view and those of a number of super-delegates, this might cost her plenty of their support anyway. A stupid move.
i’m feeling better than jv,jen,dyno and EC…but not as good as ferny or asanque lol
Dio, she will concede before the middle of June though.
Hey, if Obama wins NC by double digits and scrapes home in Indiana , me and Pancho are still a chance.
In saying that i think Billary will scrape home in Indi.
prediction
NC: 55-45 Obama
IN: 51.5 – 48.5 Clinton
Decisive delegate gain to Obama
On we go with the slow inexorable death of the Clinton/Bush era of gutter trawling politics.
Hillary on the comparative National polls has a clear. 3.4% over McCain.
Hillary on the comparative States polls that decide POTUS has a clear lead
over Obama. Estimating the likely POTUS requires these as a key starting factor
Hillary leads the popular vote in all Primarys of registered Democrats by 121,000
and Hillary has won most of the crucial big electoral vote States whilst Obama’s delegate lead rests on his wins in mostly unwinnable ‘red’ States
All SD’s can see the stats & demographics etc etc favor Hillary over Obama. Obama’s likely delegate race win of 51% to 49% is so close it may as well be a tie in terms of Democrats credibly endorsing Obama.
The Liberal zealots for Hewson’s GST had the same zealotry as Obama supporters & wouldnt listen to political reality ansd also lost an unlosable election they believed was impossible to lose. And Keating smiled,as must McCain
The Liberal zealots for Hewson’s GST had the same zealotry as Obama supporters & wouldnt listen to political reality ansd also lost an unlosable election they believed was impossible to lose. And Keating smiled,as must McCain
If we’re going to compare it to Australian issues, i see it more like the YRAW support at the previous election. Grassroots action, clear refutation of politics of current regime, popular leader consistently under attack for his past associations.
I’m putting it down to your idealistic personality type. As I’ve pointed out before, the further you go down the list of PBs, the more bitter, disillusioned and cynical they become. I may be wrong but I don’t believe her campaign chairman about it being over by June 15th, unless she is offered VP. But then again, I’m a cold hard cynical bastard. If only I had a dollar for every time someone said that to me!
The Liberal zealots for Hewson’s GST had the same zealotry as Obama supporters & wouldnt listen to political reality ansd also lost an unlosable election they believed was impossible to lose. And Keating smiled,as must McCain
Ron, your analogy fails because of your silly assumption about Obama supporters being zealous.
This is the BIG mistake by Hillary and the Republicans. By dismissing Obama’s support as either mass hysteria, brainwashing, or some kind of deception on Obama’s part, Hillary failed to detect the underlying sentiments of a large portion of the U.S. population, and has paid bitterly for it by not being able to gain enough support to get the nomination.
It’s like last year when Howard dismissed Rudd’s support as a result of Australians simply playing a joke on him, which was then followed up with Abbott’s belief that Australians were “sleepwalking their way to the polls” and would therefore vote Liberal once they snapped out of their slumber.
It’s pure arrogance. Also very condescending. And look what happened to the Liberals last year – thoroughly defeated.
What you guys need to remember is the point about the remaining uncommitted SD’s that one of them themselves said.
Obama only needs about 80 or so more SD’s to get him over the line.
You can bet your self interested SD ass that these Supers don’t want to be left irrelevant to the eventual winner.
When Obi gets down to about 50 needed there will be a mad rush among the remaining waverers to become relevant.
Noocat- didn’t you know we are all naive, dreaming, Obamabots with no idea about the real world, following a man who simply speaks in fairytales, and we are all too stupid to see through it. Just like we were stupid enough to fall for the “inexperienced Rudd” over the veteran politician JWH. And long will we regret it.
Just ask Tony Abbott.
EC – if you can’t speak like a Commie on the Labour Day holiday, when can you?! It’s a bloody tradition!
Diog: Doctors start out ans idealists – and then what? They realise they’re just a franchise of Big Pharmaceutical Inc? Nah…most doctors I know (like most lawyers) still have a belief, albeit battered and bruised, that they are doing some good with their lives.
We may not be able to change the world – but we can change somebody’s – and we can do that often. So we change the world one person at a time.
See! Still an idealist at 46. Life may have taught me some realism, but I won’t surrender to mediocrity and the deification of self-interest. It’s MUSCULAR idealism that’s needed Dr Diogs.
But if you didn’t believe that you’d be pitching for Clinton.
“389
Ron Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
The polls have improved for Hillary.”
And gee, whaddya know, in the Real World where the NYT editoriaslised its support of HRC and CBS is well, CBS or standard fare MSM……. this is the way things are actually breaking.
NB, Ron, these sources are NOT Leftist.
“NYT/CBS Poll: Obama Rebounds Nationally
Sen. Barack Obama “appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright,” according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
“On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51% to 40%. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.”
“Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50% to 38%. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago.”
Just like we were stupid enough to fall for the “inexperienced Rudd” over the veteran politician JWH. And long will we regret it.
Jen, it’s just denial. Hillary supporters say Obama has deceived everyone, therefore stealing the nomination, because it allows them to preserve a feeling of superiority in the face of defeat.
But all this will be long forgiven and forgotten when Obama is president and the cynics finally see the world is better for it.
Obama now has on his site a countdown of pledged delegates that he needs to 50%+1. By all estimates this will be on May 20 after the Oregon vote. At this stage any ‘Pelosi Club’ members can be counted for Obama, and playing divisive narratives becomes very dangerous for Hillary (if she’s still about by then). Another great realist political maneuver played by the idealist Obama team, while Hillary flails about with guns and gas tax holidays.
“He (Stubbs) became obsessed with the theme of a wild horse threatened by a lion and produced several variations on this theme.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Stubbs
Of the 6 options available, you’ve quoted the one which includes the results from Michigan, which Hillary (a fine, upstanding electable candidate) won against Obama (a loopy leftie so disorganised he couldn’t even get on the ballot) by a casual 328,309 to nil. Even the Hillary-bashers would have to admit that’s a pretty comprehensive thumping, huh?
Fact: in all Democratic primaries awarding delegates (which, by a spooky coincidence, are also all the Democratic primaries in which the 2 candidates campaigned), Obama leads the vote count by a casual half a mill. By putting in spurious and deliberately misleading ’stats’, you just make her supporters look as desperate as they no doubt are.
I also love the line: “Obama’s likely delegate race win of 51% to 49% is so close it may as well be a tie.” The 2000 and 2004 presidential elections were so close that the two sides might as well call them a tie, huh? Now I think of it, likewise the 2005 AFL grand final. The Swans should have invited Ben Cousins to share the glory, after all.
No point in Obama supporters kidding themselves. The events of the last couple of weeks have significantly increased his chances of being poleaxed by McCain in the white rural parts of swing states in November. But to Hillary supporters: so what? Complaining in effect that ‘the people should wake up and realise that Obama will be crushed by the GOP machine’ is just a campaign slogan. It doesn’t answer the question, “What possible sequence of events could unfold that would result in Clinton getting 2024 delegates’ votes at the convention?” So after a while, it just makes you sound like Ron Paul supporters; who as far as anyone knows, are still out there blogging that the scales will fall from the people’s eyes any minute now.
Florida and Michigan opnely flouted the DNC rules and went ahead despite being told their votes wouldnt count. Hillary’s crocodile tears are only falling because its the only way her maths can look better
The name of the game is delegates, nothing more, nothing less. This is the system the Democrats set up in order to select their presidential candidate.
Anyone who suggests that a person be elected on some other basis, whether it is an obscure argument about electability or the popular vote, is trying to rewrite the rules, and therefore cheat their way through the system.
‘Twas a classic metaphor Ecky, and I thought it even more so considering it came after the Kentucky Derby, and anyone who knows the work of Stubbs will recall the innumerable noble nags of the gentry which he painted. That her nag fell down and got put down could not be missed by her audience.
MoDo knows how to pull the threads together, eh what?
…excellent analysis of how the Clintons shoved the black vote off to pander to their natural base. When many blacks initially thought Obama was not viable (on historical precedent they had a right to be sceptical), but as he started to show appeal to white liberals (and the young) they moved. Bill helped to push them away in droves and they’re never coming back.
Obama needs 286 delegates to win while Clinton needs 416. With just 404 pledged delegates available in the remaining contests, and assuming a likely even split, would could imagine that the race is done and dusted with Obama short by 84 and Clinton short by 214. Those remaining 298 slots are the undecided superdeegates and according to the rules they can vote for whoever they want – and within that context, anything goes.
However – we can put up suggestions for criteria:
electability: this is a not so simply – Obama has proven that he is more competitive that Clinton in the primaries and one needs to apply that principal to the general election scenario, and we could rattle on for days with different views on the subject without concensus popularity: and here we get into popular vote counting but only with reasonable metrics that take into account caucus equivalence, but also we need to take into account the new voter registration rates and how this plays into the long term health of the party – and by any rationale measure, Obama is ahead of Clinton in this category risk: this is tricky because risk management is the art of dealing with a problem who’s time has come – if you assume another terrorist strike on US soil during the campaign then Clinton represent the low risk as she’s modelling herself as the aggressive little fighter out there ready to kick-arse – but if the economy maintains prominence, Obama IMO looks like lower risk because he comes over as a lot cooler, calmer, and willing to deal with real issues as opposed to pandering or playing on people’s fears opportunity: this one is interesting – the opportunity for the USA to move on and reclaim its lost respect in the world, and in the process – perhaps do something to deal with healthcare, grapple with oil addiction, and maybe do something good for the planet in the process – delivered not by ideals, but with a broad spectrum domination of the government by the Democrats for many years to come
You are forgetting one important thing Catrina: all those white liberal Supers who have yet to throw all caution to the wind, and just come out for the white chick and be damned. “Who cares”, they’ll say, “if the voters think we’re just a bunch of racists, we’ve always secretly admired Hillary but were just too nervous to say so!”
Come on Catrina, think about it, you know it’s about to happen because as we all know (and have been told in NO UNCERTAIN TERMS, that HRC is the only ‘electable’ candidate for the Dems. Why, even she believes this to be true. Would you believe that?)
So get ready for the shock Catrina, get an extra big box of tissues, and a bottle of something quaffable.
Kirri at 421
OK, you have a point. We could add the following criteria … gross stupidity: a factor not to be underestimated across the political spectrum or either party – evidenced by the election of GWB and reaffirmed by his subsequent re-election for another term.
“Doctors start out as idealists – and then what? They realise they’re just a franchise of Big Pharmaceutical Inc? Nah…most doctors I know (like most lawyers) still have a belief, albeit battered and bruised, that they are doing some good with their lives.
We may not be able to change the world – but we can change somebody’s – and we can do that often. So we change the world one person at a time.”
Doctors get frustrated that they can only affect one person at a time. Doctors in public hospitals are totally impotent. We function in as world which is run by bureaucrats for the benefit of politicians, who are only interested in re-election.
“Mrs Clampett’s horse running second and being euthanised in full view of the public is the most wierd, apt omen i think i have ever witnessed.”
Harry, isn’t it quaint how horses these days are “euthanased” and not “DESTROYED in full view of the public”.
And sure, a lot of Americans believe in a whole lot of irrational crap and many of them are superstitious too. Bad omen for Brutusina as far as these types of voters are concerned.
Yet one more similarity with Obi, who backed Big Brown, and Rudd who backed the winner of the last Melbourne Cup; another race that stops a nation. Thinking people like us, Harry, of course refer to such events as coincidences, but there’s always the sort who see faces of Mystical Ones in tea-leaves and melting wax, and who seek to imbue such “revelations” with deep significance.
And they’re not all in America either. These folk are fodder for charlatans and quacks of every persuasion. Staples of the rube processing industry.
Mind you, with regard to common usage, when Iraqi families are converted into pink mist by air-to-ground US missiles, the Sep Administration and the MSM call it collateral damage.
“”Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought?… Has it ever occurred to your, Winston, that by the year 2050, at the very latest, not a single human being will be alive who could understand such a conversation as we are having now?…The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact, there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking—not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.” —Syme, pg 46-47. 1984.
The Kentucky Derby talk triggered my memory of something that occured during our own recent political contest. Rudd picked the Melbourne Cup winner Efficient at good odds after his first pick (Maybe Better… what do you mean maybe) got scratched while Howard picked the overseas horse which was relegated to 3rd.
Even more scary, Big Brown was very inexperienced and the Kentucky Derby was only his fourth start (all wins like Obi). Only one horse has won the Derby at its fourth run. And Big Brown was the favourite. Go you good thing, Obi!!
One of the lines against Obama is he is ‘unkown’ or secretly Muslim or some other ‘dark’ innuendo, and therefore, elect him as Prez and he’ll take our country to ruin.
Ah, hello? The horse has already bolted on that one!
And that was with the most popular white Texas flyboy who turned out to be a complete dud, and someone who far preferred to spend his time down on the farm than actually getting his tiny brain around running the country.
‘gross stupidity’ only goes halfway to describing it.
Still, Obama is the likely Democratic nominee. Some conservatives are giddy at the thought — kidding themselves that the general election will therefore be easy, that Obama will be another Dukakis. I was struck, though, in several conversations this week with McCain campaign staffers and advisers that they’re pretty sober about the task ahead. About the Dukakis analogy, for example, one McCain aide said: If in 1988 Ronald Reagan had had a 30 percent job approval rating, and 80 percent of the voters had thought we were on the wrong track, Dukakis would have won.
…as he has to admit that his beloved Republicans are right on the nose across the country.
Funny, Billy, but one of the reasons they are so reviled is because they went along with that silly war you cheered endlessly.
So, we’ve had our weekend lull – SD announcements will probably begin again tomorrow, the last day before NC and IN. I think I’d be tipping Obama by 12 in NC, Clinton by 4 in IN.
Oh, and for those who wanted to know if the US is in recession yet, then no less a figure than the Oracle of Omaha has come out and said so in no uncertain terms.
So the next lot of figures will almost surely have a negative sign tacked onto it; $600 cheques will not save it.
This will make a difficult stage prop for McCain, who will have to try and walk around it and pretend it doesn’t stink and that it didn’t fall out of an elephant’s behind.
Those remaining 298 slots are the undecided superdelegates and according to the rules they can vote for whoever they want - and within that context, anything goes.
Great list, Catrina.
Perhaps we can also add “self interest”. Some superdelegates will endorse either candidates because of past and future favours, fear, and anything else to do with their career.
A fair chunk of Hillary’s latest endorsements probably have little to do with superdelegates believing she will win, but an expression of either loyalty or self-interest.
“Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option To Overtake Delegate Lead
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.
With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party’s 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could — when the committee meets at the end of this month — try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.
Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:
First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin – or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.
Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama — that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed — would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.”
Hillary told her former lapdog, er,Bill’s PR hack, George Stephanopoulos that she doesn’t much care what economists think of her (read: McCain’s) gas tax holiday (with free soda pop if you vote for Hill).
In light of this dismissal of the dismal science and its practitioners, maybe she should read this:
Economists
American economists strongly support the Democratic Party, with their views on policy being largely in accordance with the Democratic platform. The vast majority, 63%, identify as progressive and less than 20% as conservative or libertarian.[15] In a 2004 survey of 1,000 American economists, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by a 2.5 to 1 ratio. The majority of economists favored “safety regulations, gun control, redistribution, public schooling, and anti-discrimination laws,” while opposing “tighter immigration controls, government ownership of enterprise and tariffs.”[16] Other surveys have found Democrats to outnumber Republicans 2.8 to 1 among members of the profession. A study in the Southern Economic Journal found that “71 percent of American economists believe the distribution of income in the US should be more equal, and 81 percent feel that the redistribution of income is a legitimate role for government.”[17]
Wikipedia
Oh well, it’s not like there’s as many of them as Joe Sixpacks, eh?
Even worse, Hillary is channelling Ron now. If you disagree with her, you are an “elite”. “Elite” is actually a shorthand for someone who actually knows a lot more than her about the topic and exposes her as an intellectual lightweight and political fraud.
Referring to economists she says “this mindset where elite opinion is always on the side of doing things that really disadvantage the vast majority of Americans.”
Hmm, would that be the ‘elite’ neocon opinion that Iraq possessed nuclear weapons?
Or the ‘elite’ opinion that banks could be brokers too?
My god, the woman is utterly shameless, and by talking down to the audience like that she proves what she really thinks of them! (ie dumb enough to buy any rubbish she spouts as long she bungs on their accent and knocks back a beer and chaser!)
Yep, a lot of ‘elite’ opinion has REALLY disadvantaged a hell of a lot of Americans, but it’s the very elite she’s aping!
She must be really pis*ed off that they could not find a single economist who would prostitute him/herself and agree that her tax holiday bribe was anything other than a cheap idiotic political stunt. They did find someone, a lobbyist for Shell Oil who probably said “If the nasty Government didn’t tax my product so much, everyone could buy as much gas as they wanted and we could all live happily ever after.”
diogs. am I mistaken or ar you representative of the former Clampett supporters (I claim copyright on that), who have come to favour Obama?
As i once was myself , before he won me, and then she further lost me.
As for channelling Ron: ‘elite’ has clearly come to mean conscious and with a pulse.
Obama’s slight recovery in the national average was short lived. Today he plummetted to his lowest level since February against Hillary when he dropped like a stone from a 2.9% lead this morning to 1.1%. The drop is due to a USA Today/Gallup poll showing Clinton with a 7% lead over Obama. Compared to all other polls, it’s an outlier – but it has reversed The Kid’s recovery.
In more bad news Obama’s NC lead has dropped from 7% to 6.5% due to an Insider Advantage poll showing Clinton leading Obama in NC by 3%. Huh??
On the other hand, Hillary’s lead in Indiana has been cut from over 5% to 4.6. Zogby tracking has Obama leading by 2%. Huh again??
Seems like those suggesting a couple of months ago that the ultimate Clinton strategy was to hold on long enough that pushing the button on Florida/Michigan was an option were correct… yikes.
Ho hum, Ferny, it’s silly season for sure. Clinton is not 7% ahead on the national, that’s plain silly. Even Republican stooges like Billy Kristol think Obama is going to win the nomination FFS!
Who dreams up these ‘results’? More the point, was the question:
“Now that Obama has been exposed as harbouring terrorists and black panthers in his cellar, who do you think will win the nomination?”
Fat chance Smile. It won’t fly but I’d guess they are making tough noises and dragging their knuckles over the ground in an intimidating way for effect.
It’s got to get past the DNC and it won’t. End of story.
The Florida/Michigan option is just plain nuts and would almost certainly see a legal challenge. It would tear the Dems apart. The Clinton’s don’t have that much clout.
You are mistaken. I have never supported Billary. As an ardent, elitist, intellectual Chomskyist , the only candidate I have any time for is Nader but realistically he is counter-productive. Obama is clearly the next best option.
I think the two best polls are Rasmussen (which favours Obama) and Survey USA (which favours Clinton). If you average them, its pretty close. Currently that would be Obama by 7% in NC and Clinton by 7% in Indiana.
This story is becoming more and more Shakespearian, with traitors (Richardson), court jesters (Carville), knaves (Stephanopoulos) and an old crazy King (Bill Clinton). We all know it’s going to finish with a bloodbath. And then someone will say : “Alas, alas, poor Hillaric !”
This is just plain silly.
Time to declare- even Grinch and Finns have gone to ground
Obama is the candidate that the SD’s are supporting, which is why they are being quiet about it. If they were Clinton supporters and thought they could derail him they would have come out by now.
They are protecting themselves by hoping they can do it as a herd, or a gaggle, or a flock …(what does one call an avalanche of SD’s?…)
About 20 different Obama blogers have replied to my post mostly with Obama style affection. Can’t reply to all but should start with Winston Churchill
Obama said of Wright “I could no more disown him than I can disown my white grandmother” but 4 weeks later 70% disowning him. ‘that’s a bit like Churchill promising to fight them on the beaches and never surrender, and then surrendering a month and a half later, and on a beach he decided not to fight on..
None of the National or State polls I quoted all for Hillary , not a comment, objective comments
Diogene 437: ‘even worse, Hillary is channelling Ron now’. you’ve TLC disowned
Elitist definition: superiorthoughts over others expecting favourable treatment. A site such as this attracts all sorts.Most are not ‘elititst’ , a few are & don’t like exposure
EC: 401 NYT & Huffington are pro Obama rags , just as biased as Fox
SimonH 408 Prove it. Re Hillary’s delegate lead
I said “Hillary leads the popular vote in all Primarys of registered Democrats by 121,000?. This is a fact. Check RealClearPolitics
To those querying my 51/%49% delegate win for Obama : I repeat Obama does win the delegate race with this but 51/49 is not even a resounding endorsement from the Democrat faithful. Not enough alone to justify being Nominee & leading his Party to another northeast Liberal train wreck loss
Andrew 409 & Pancho 410 Sneaky Howard Dean DNC Chairman , Obama’s factional ally stitched a dirty deal over Michigan & Florida to help his mate Obama..old style politics favoring Obama.. Obama new style politic is a sham
Noocat & Jen : Hewson GST Lib zealots lost the unlosable election.Obama supporters are similarly zealous about Obama thinking he’s made no ‘gafes’ & ignoring all electability polling vs McCain where Hillary leads
That’s uber right Mark Steyn you’re quoting there:
‘that’s a bit like Churchill promising to fight them on the beaches and never surrender, and then surrendering a month and a half later, and on a beach he decided not to fight on..
Jen @ 459 [(what does one call an avalanche of SD’s?…)]
I thought it was a coalescence of super delegates, Jen. All around the kid. And how proud they will be to put a stop to all this nonsense, which is becoming more like a loop of Monty Python’s Black Knight scene every time I pop in for a look.
The sample size for a poll alone is important. But for a series of polls it matters little, as the sum of the polls taken reduce the margin of error. With polls in America you also have to deal with the “likely voter” vs “potential voter” issue.
Zogby polls are tracking polls, which mean they phone the same sample of voters over a series of days. So I am would suggest that they are interesting and most likely to vote. As to weather they are representive is another question.
It does take a bit of time to get to a poll station on a work day and this does exclude a lot of the poor who can’t afford to leave their jobs.
To put it in plain english – if you were an SD and wanted to support Obama, but knowing that you had to face the Clinton’s and their ’staff’, wouldn’t you want to do it as part of a group rather than a lone individual?
( knowing that knee-capping was a metaphoric possibility if you upset them?)
whereas Obama might frown severley at you… oh gee.
Michigan is a completely different story to Florida. The candidates were told to withdraw from Michigan by the DNC (the only holdout was Clinton) as it was the local democratic party that decided to jump the gun. It is highly unlikely the vote will count (more likely some delegates split between the candidates will be selected).
Florida went early as the Republican governor set the date. The local democratic party didn’t have much choice. But the campaign didn’t happen there as the candidates were told by the DNC not to. Expect a comprise resulting in half votes there at the end of May (which is equal to +19 to Clinton).
Betfair Odds: Indiana Obama $4.50 Clinton $1.18
NC Obama $1.03 Clinton $20
Democratic Candidate: Obama $1.38 Clinton $4.50 (Gore $26)
President: Obama $2.42 McCain $2.68 Clinton $5.70 (Gore $29)
Winning Party: Dem $1.63 Rep $2.56
Just had a thought: Why not name a VP candidate now? Certainly it would draw the focus onto the candidate and give them open airtime for a 24 hour block. Problem might be getting a candidate willing to jump now (In case the other candidate got up). But if it was a wise choice it could blast the other off the page.
471 Jen – Thanks -glad to hear it, and great to see you keeping the feisty analysis going. I have been off travelling NSW and used the opportunity to feel the mood of the people on the US primaries. Results are now in, and my official figures are that something less than 0.1% of NSW citizens give a toss about the Dems, the Repugs, Obama, Clinton, McCain or anything else to do with the election over there (MOE ~ .001%). Sad, but true. They don’t know what they’re missing.
Jv -
I get the same bemused look when I say that I am following the US elections.
But I got the same bemused look 25 minutes before ours- so I have to come to the unhappy conclusion that we are political tragics, while most people don’t give a toss.
So, wanna have dinner?
Jen [So, wanna have dinner?]
Sure -Gee -two PB lefty political tragics at the same dinner table. Think of the bemused looks from the other diners!
Speaking of dinner, you and I are out of the running for the fine wines in the contest, but there are still some remaining with a good chance for this week or mid-June.
I have plenty left JV.
( actually I don’t, but I know where to get it)
and I am not at all happy about giving it away to the more conservative amongst us, however a wager is a wager and I will honour it.
Jen -It’s OK – we are all of the ‘Obama is the better candidate’ group I thought – none of the obliteration supporters entered.
‘Mail order Big Mac’- now that’s fine dining. It may not be in top condition, but my son would eat it regardless, if I can’t face it.
I’ll express-post you some apple pie with mock cream for dessert if you like
jen [btw- it won’t be this week.]
Probably not, but the polls seem a bit variable from what I’ve seen tonight. If Obama wins both Indiana and NC then it might give the remaining SD’s the impetus to begin ‘the great coalescence’ and end it.
But that’s a bit much to hope for.
jen – lol – mock cream gets quite firm when a day or so old. I thought it might hang together better in the packet. However, perhaps this topic is best left alone – don’t want to find ourselves moving on to discuss strawberry jam, or runny honey.
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:01 am |Permalink
And here’s Bill doing the front porch stops:
“I checked when the Pennsylvania vote came in and Hillary got over 60 percent of the vote in every single county where I did a front porch rally, so don’t y’all let me down,” he said.
…as they say in Arkansas, Hillary couldn’t keep the dog on the porch! But now the old dog is allowed to go round other’s porches and proclaim she ain’t ‘pandering’.
Onya, Bill (not pandering) Clinton.
500
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:22 am |Permalink
Superdelegate update …
Obama picks up an additional endorsement from superdelegate Kalyn Free:
DNC Superdelegate, INDN’s List Founder and
USW (United Steelworkers) Associate Member Kalyn Free
Endorses Senator Barack Obama for U.S. President
CHICAGO, IL — Kalyn Free, an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee, today announced that she supports Illinois Senator Barack Obama for the party’s presidential nomination. As a DNC member, Free will serve as a superdelegate to the Democratic National Convention. Free is also founder and President of INDN’s List, an organization dedicated to recruiting and training American Indian candidates.
This brings the total number of superdelegates to endorse Barack Obama to 258. Senator Obama is 276 delegates away from securing the Democratic nomination.
Free said she was excited to see two qualified candidates emerge from the field of Democratic contenders. “Today, I am casting my support for a new kind of leadership and a new possibility of what America can be. Barack Obama is a once-in-a-generation kind of leader and the best hope the American people have to rebuild the erosion our collective foundation has endured the last eight years. In 2008, we must elect a President who will restore our faith in the possibilities of each and every American, including the First Americans.
“As a member of the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, I am proud of what it means to be an American Indian. I am proud Barack Obama is committed to our unique issues and willing to tackle our toughest problems, from historical inequities and injustices to contemporary issues, like protection of our right to tribal self-determination, access to health care for our elders, and education for our children. Despite the threats that have faced our culture and our people, hope has lifted Indian people through the most difficult times. Because we remain connected to our past, our culture and our communities, we never gave up that hope. American Indians need not just progressive ideas but new and visionary leadership that inspire us to build a better future for all Americans. No President alone can rebuild the American public after eight years of George Bush’s disastrous policies and poisonous politics. I support Senator Obama because I believe the only way to rebuild America is to rebuild what makes us great – the hope and drive of the American people.
“Senator Obama is committed to bringing American Indians into the national discussion and into the political process as voters, organizers, and leaders. He will start a two-way dialogue with Tribes by coming to Indian Country to seek solutions for our unique issues and by bringing Indians into his administration.
“For centuries the First Americans have had politicians talk to them, not with them. That kind of politics-as-usual leadership hasn’t worked for Indian Country, and it isn’t working for America. Senator Obama will forge a new era for the First Americans by looking for answers in Indian Country, not from Washington lobbyists.
“I am proud to stand in solidarity with another DNC Indian superdelegate Frank LaMere (Winnebago) in support of America’s best hope for a better tomorrow, Senator Barack Obama.”
Senator Obama said, “Kalyn is an effective and compassionate leader in the Native American community, and I’m proud to have her support. I admire the work she has done to build a grassroots movement, elect Native Americans to public office, and mobilize voters in tribal communities to become part of the political process. And as President, I will work with tribal leaders and Kalyn to ensure that they have a true partner in the White House. With Kalyn’s support, we’re going to bring about real change not just for the Native American community, but for all Americans.”
This brings the super delegate count (adjusted for the Pelosi factor) to 12 advantage Clinton.
This has to be the best article I have read in the last three months. The title is The Psychological Dynamics of the 2008 Primaries: Who’s Where and Why? written by Drew Westen. The article is an adapted version of Postscript to the Paperback Edition of his book. Well worth spending some time reading.
In the prelude to a super dump, the Hillary Clinton campaign have announce the endorsement of Theresa Morelli from Dems Abroad. That’s half a delegate (a.ka. 0.5) for Hillary with a storm cloud of Obama endorsement about to hit the headlines.
The chairman and vice-chairman of the Maryland Democratic Party are throwing their support behind Sen. Barack Obama on the eve of Tuesday’s primaries in Indiana and North Carolina, giving the Illinois senator at least two additional superdelegates.
I’m done for tonight – but keep any eye on the DCW site as there will probably be another 3 Obama supers rolling in within the next few hours. I’ll be checking the numbers later and factoring in the Pelosi equation and with luck we will be back into singe digits.
Democracy in motion – its almost as good as a warm meatball pesto salad.
REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats…………..Obama-Clinton…….Spread
Total Delegates……..1747-1607…………Obama + 140
Super Delegates…….256-270……………Clinton + 14*
Pledged Delegates…..1491-1337………..Obama + 154
Naturally, none of this matters anymore as Brutusina has opted for her “nu-ku-lar” option. (cf Huffy.) Somehow this reminds me of Ursula, the Sea Witch, getting medieval on everybody’s ass at the climax of “The Little Mermaid”.
“After U.S. gasoline prices surged to a record high this week, President Bush strode into the Rose Garden to unveil his plans for coping with skyrocketing energy costs: drill for oil in Alaska, add U.S. refineries and build more nuclear plants.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2008/05/05/BL2008050501147.html
So, to keep everything hunky-dory, the GOP have chosen Johnny Bomb-Bomb to replace The Imbecile.
America should be so lucky, already!!
*Now 12, you bewdy, Catrina, with Obi picking up Kalyn Free.
Yes, Catrina’s link at 501 is a bottler. Phil Adams interviewed Drew Western a month or two back. Compelling stuff. Every Dem soldier from from Obi’s War-Room to precinct captains needs to absorb Western’s message fast, then act. Sure it’s a truism, but knowledge is power. Expect to see Obi back in Elmer Gantry mode soon. The Candidate of Hopes and Dreams who connects with good, wholesome American guts.
“The central thesis of the book, grounded in psychology, neuroscience, political science, and modern electoral history, was that elections are won and lost not primarily on “the issues” but on the values and emotions of the electorate–most importantly, on the “gut feelings” that summarize much of what voters think and feel about a candidate or party. Candidates who win the hearts and minds of the voters are those who can weave together emotionally compelling stories about who they are and who their opponents are and can make people feel what they feel.”
“I may make you feel………. but I can’t make you think…” Jethro Tull.
Get ready for a good win – on demographics, which has been more reliable than polling so far, it should be 15%+ – and a blow to the ‘popular vote’ argument. Although in Clinton’s defence, she has been loathe to let reality intrude on this particular narrative…
Pancho:
41% is a HUGE turnout of the black vote. If it’s repeated on polling day, it will indeed be a double-digit win for The Kid, which will see the prevailing pro-Hillary narrative change yet again. If he can hold her to anything under a 5% win in Indiana, it’s over. The Indiana win will keep her fighting, but all she will have left is her nu-kul-ar option of bullying to have Florida and Michigan seated.
On the other hand, if the polls are correct and it’s a close-run thing in NC, a solid win in Indiana and a walloping win for Clinton in West Virginia next week (recent polls have her up to 30 points ahead), then the case mounts for SD’s to throw their support behind her new found mo.
FG – I would guess the % of black vote would come down slightly on election day – Obama has had far superior organisation to Clinton on the ground just about everywhere and this is probably reflected at the moment – but even if it is way down on the day we’re still looking at something like 35% overall. Which makes the polls that have shown a tight race on the prediction of a 25% black turnout laughable.
Not quite as laughable as the ‘nukular option’, which is just another delaying tactic. While Clinton may (in theory) have the numbers to ram something through the Rules and Bylaws, as others have noted, Obama will have the numbers on the credentials committee at the Convention to overturn anything unfairly partisan. And Clinton supporters on the R&B will know this and not play a destructive and ultimately unfruitful game. Remembering that if Clinton holds 50% of R&B, it will take only one voice of reason to shut down any stupidity. I’m sure that Obama, Dean and Pelosi will be able to find that person. So this ‘option’ is really just more Clinton bluster.
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:03 am |Permalink
If only the people in Indiana realised that they could end this thing and vote for Obama. It seems like this is not a factor the primary voting patterns
514
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:07 am |Permalink
Another complication Andrew:
‘Rush Limbaugh has re-initiated “Operation Chaos” after briefly placing it on “pause”, asking his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primaries in order to prolong the Democratic nomination process. This has been known for several days now. It is not such an issue in North Carolina because registered Republicans may not vote in the Democratic primary (only independent voters can) and registration changes are due more than a month before the election. However, in the latest entry at his website, Limbaugh not only encourages his listeners to vote for Clinton but asks them to break Indiana law to do so.’ http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/5/18257/22437/904/509640
Friends like these, huh Gary?
515
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:09 am |Permalink
CNN latest SD count 266 to 252 in Hillary’s favour- is this without the Pelosi group??
Obama overtaking Hillary on the SD count would be a strong signal, as its the only no. in which she is ahead
516
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:12 am |Permalink
No Pelosis in there – it is down from about 20 with the 3 Illinois add-ons becoming official, 2 Obamas from MD and one other yesterday.
517
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:13 am |Permalink
Other being Kalyn Free, DNC and organizer of the Indigenous Democratic Network .
518
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:15 am |Permalink
RCP has Hillary +15 in the SD count, down from 20 on Friday.
519
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:19 am |Permalink
So how many are there in the Pelosi camp??
520
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:22 am |Permalink
510
Ferny Grover
Ralph Nader needs ‘gas’ money? That’s a bit rich for the gasbag from hell.
I’ve got one message for Ralph:
On ya bike, Ralph, on ya bke.
521
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:24 am |Permalink
So…the Pelosi Club will probably be welcoming some new members around 3 June.
523
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:41 am |Permalink
thanks pancho, so Hillary’s lead given this would be down to 6 SDs
524
Grace
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:52 am |Permalink
#509
Last night on the Daily Show Howard Dean told John Stewart they would seat Florida and Michigan delegates at the convention – they just had to work out a formula that would be fair to Obama & Clinton as well as the States that followed party rules.
He also said the SD’s would vote for the candidate with ‘electability’ – but wouldn’t specify what that meant.
I felt that Howard Dean left open the possibility of giving the nomination to HRC, despite the maths. This would be travesty.
525
Diogenes
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:54 am |Permalink
It’s interesting that each time Hillary realises she has lost one narrative that she changes to a new one. First the PD count went against her so it doesn’t count. Then the popular vote went against her so it doesn’t count, unless you include a state where only she was on the ballot paper. Then it became electability until she realised the she was unelectable if she could only get the nomination by overturning the will of the party. Now she can’t get to 2025 with the help of SDs so the narrative changes again to include Florida and Michigan to buy her time. It’s pathetic really.
526
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:29 am |Permalink
Grace at 524 I dont understand why they would seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, when it was made clear before they had their primaries that if they proceeded they would not be seated. Shows you the power the Clintons have over the DNC. I dont think there would be a fuss if Hillary hadnt won those states (bearing in mind Obama wasnt even on the Michigan ballot).
527
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:31 am |Permalink
It also seems that Dean is buying into Hillarys phoney “electability” argument. Quite a concerning development
528
Smile
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:35 am |Permalink
>I dont understand why they would seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, when it was made clear before they had their primaries that if they proceeded they would not be seated.
I think it’s based upon the fact that there is a growing belief that not seating the delegates will have a real negative impact for the Dems in the POTUS race.
Whether or not this is true, it seems that those pushing this argument (which from what I have read appear to be Hillary-supporters) seem to be making headway behind the scenes…
529
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:35 am |Permalink
Yep Diog – According to Phillip Adams, Hillary is the Great Pretender, a chamelion who will change her character, as well as her story, to suit the situation she’s in:
“Where Bill was the bigger fibber who “did not have sex with that woman”, Hillary is the better chameleon. She can camouflage herself on moving backgrounds, instantly adapting to any crisis or context in which she finds herself. When trying to win over white working-class men, she’ll front the bar and toss down the drinks. In the company of those whose guns will have to be levered from their cold, dead hands (to paraphrase the National Rifle Association’s patron saint Chuck Heston), she becomes a rootin’, tootin’, gun-totin’ Annie Oakley who remembers shooting critters and varmints with Daddy as a childhood highlight.
Fronting a gospel choir, she’ll borrow a black accent (I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her campaign in blackface); and when the congregation is made up of white evangelicals, she’ll lift her arms into the air, throw her head back and talk of her frequent encounters with the holy spirit.”
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:51 am |Permalink
Howard Dean has to tread down the middle, or be seen to. So he cannot say, flatly, that Fl and M cannot be there. Using Clinton’s meme of ‘electability’ is nice camouflage itself, because hey, it means different things to different people.
I don’t see Dean bending over for Clintons, ever. Besides, this is going to be fought out in back rooms, but the DNC will want to mollify the two states and try not to have a legal bunfight going on before the convention.
The other thing is that Obama’s people will fighting back and will not let Clinton just nominate herself with a sleight of hand.
Michigan cannot be a plus for HRC, and Florida won’t do it on it’s own if she can’t claw back a lot of ground from here.
531
Smile
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:56 am |Permalink
My guess is that the outcome of tomorrow will decide which approach HRC adopts – if she runs close in NC and wins in IN then she’ll fire up a full court press (talking up momentum in the press while simultaneously pursuing strategies to have Fl/MI seated).
If Obama is close in IN and slam-dunks NC then Clinton wont be able to try for a final push (or perhaps ‘putsch’ is a better term) and that will probably be it. At this point I can actually see preparations for as graceful an exit as possible.
532
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:10 pm |Permalink
If it’s any indication, the “Democracy for America” Organisation (founded by Howard Dean) is mounting a petition entitled “Let the Voters Decide”. The petition states:
“We the undersigned call on Democratic super-delegates to let the voters decide our Democratic nominee. After every Democrat in every state has had a chance to vote, super-delegates must confirm the winner of the popularly allocated delegates.”
I wonder if failure to comply will result in all members letting out an Iowa Scream?
533
TurningWorm
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:11 pm |Permalink
Interesting developments on HuffPost:
UPDATE | May 5, 11am ET : Hillary Clinton’s campaign today acknowledged plans to try to win seating of the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Nation Convention at a meeting of the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31.
In a statement issued in response to a story on The Huffington Post (”Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option,” see below), the campaign declared:
“There is no secret plan…. The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn’t publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated.”
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:19 pm |Permalink
probably a stupid question but why don’t they let Florida and Michigan revote (with both of them on the ballot)?
535
Smile
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:21 pm |Permalink
“probably a stupid question but why don’t they let Florida and Michigan revote (with both of them on the ballot)”
This has been discussed but (from memory) cost is too great and time is too tight.
536
Jen
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:28 pm |Permalink
fair enough. Thanks Smile!
537
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:31 pm |Permalink
I’d love to see Clinton’s argument for declaring an invalid ballot to be suddenly valid. It offends all the principles of natural justice, let alone plain old boring law, to change the rules after the event. She’s appealing to the Mugabe Rules.
Another indication of what a Clinton Presidency would look like. Same ol, same ol’.
538
Grace
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:36 pm |Permalink
#524
In addition to the time and cost #525, the Clinton camp would claim a revote as their victory, that HRC had been the only candidate sticking up for Florida & Michigan. Remember her appearance in Florida after their primary.
539
Grace
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:37 pm |Permalink
Sorry that should be #534 & #535
540
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:38 pm |Permalink
Jen, apart from cost and time, I think the State Legislators (parliament) as well as the Democrat state and national organisations need to approve the holding of primaries/caucuses. It’s a logistically onerous process.
And somehow I don’t think Hillary would want to hold a revote. She doesn’t have the money and can’t be guranteed of the results in a ballot where her opponent actually takes part. Her position is that the current votes should stand. Of course this means that Obama would get ZERO Michigan delegates and a minimal number from Florida where he did not campaign (on instructions from the DNC, which Hillary flouted).
And now she wants to be rewarded for ignoring the Party directions and rules. Another indication of the kind of President she would be.
541
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:42 pm |Permalink
And for those who haven’t noticed, Obama’s national average lead on RCP has been cut to 0.3% due to an Ipsos poll showing Clinton ahead by 7. Bollocks!
542
Yo ho ho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:44 pm |Permalink
And for those who haven’t noticed, Obama’s national average lead on RCP has been cut to 0.3% due to an Ipsos poll showing Clinton ahead by 7. Bollocks!
bullbutter perhaps?
543
The Finnigans
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:54 pm |Permalink
The shrinking ship:
28/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +10.3 (Pastor Wright at NCP 28/4/08)
29/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +7.3 (Obama Philly Mark 2)
30/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +3.0
01/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +1.6
05/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +0.3
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:56 pm |Permalink
In a sea of ‘MAS’ Obamabotic-Mania , is there any POTUS electability deciding statistics/polls discussed. No , we can merely sweep them away by just not talking about them. We know we can not comment on National polls vs McCain or swing State polls vs McCain or the popular vote count of all registered Democrats so we talk about an internal race (not electability POTUS deciding).
This is like having Rudd and Swan have various Australia wide Primarys of Labor supporters to decide who shall be Labor’s candidate against the then Howard. Swan wins the blue ribbon Liberal Primarys like Toorak and Vaucluse & those existing Labor seat Primarys that Swan & Rudd will win anyway. BUT Rudd wins the key ‘oz’ marginal seats (swing states) Primarys like Eden Monaro decisively. But we only take notice of Swan’s wins in the blue ribbon Liberal seats and in those existing Labor seats Swan & Rudd will win anyway Ignore the marginals when deciding who is more electable.
Also Rudd leads Swan on the popular vote including the 2 disputed Eden Monaro type Primarys (where Rudd had won decisively & would have then anyway)
But Rudd trails the popular vote without these 2 disputed marginal seats Rudd won easily. Decisively above all else Rudd has also won the undisputed key marginal seat Primarys (the swing States) & current polls still show Rudd leads Swan in them. Ignore those marginals Primarys (the swing states) tose that sdecide POTUS , those that decide who is more electable the Obamabots say, instead look at Swan’ wins in Vaucluse & Toorak and existingLabor seats we will win anyway
But with Obamabotic-Mania it is the big picture dream vision…the ‘yes we can’ on a blank page without any detail with our Vaucluse & Toorak based/safe Labor seat based delegate wins that decides rather than the dreaded political reality. And should McCain be POTUS , Obamabotic-Mania then indignant shall say the damn voters got it wrong
545
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 12:59 pm |Permalink
How about a graphic with Hillarys shrinking SD lead or Obama’s growing overall lead. Oh sorry, I’m talking delegate numbers, they dont count to Hillary supporters- silly me
Well Andrew, are you taking into account “Rudd and Swan” “Australia wide Primarys of Labor” “Labor’s candidate against the then Howard” “Swan” “Liberal Primarys like Toorak and Vaucluse” “Labor seat Primarys” “Swan & Rudd” “Rudd” “key ‘oz’ marginal seats” “Eden Monaro”? How can you comment of the Democratic Primary season if not?
Ron, your argument is simple- even if Obama wins the most pledged delegates and the popular vote, the SDs should and will back Hillary in sufficient numbers to give her the candidacy. Sheer fantasy
Sorry should have added, and if the numbers still dont add up, then try to introduce delegates in states where it was agreed wouldnt be seated. Have I left anything out???
I think the point of the ‘nuclear option’ Huffington Post article is that HRC is actually considering adopting this strategy, with the closing national Obama v HRC polling perhaps lending support for it actually being attempted (depending upon tomorrow’s outcome)…
Smile – Hillary has the numbers on Rules and Bylaws. She will not on the Credentials Committees, as these are apportioned by states and delegates won. So the ‘nuclear option’ is a false dawn. Anything unfairly partisan will be overturned.
On Ron’s point, i thought that the delegate count has some proportional measure in-built to make sure that non-democrat states didn’t get as big a say. Or is that a population measure? Can someone fill me in?
“Will Hillary’s all-stops-out-thang work? To a degree, Indiana will be a litmus test of such. Hills is on track to win, but the scale will be crucial. Anything below 5% will be a loss, anything above 8% will suggest that this sort of, well, bad craziness, can draw in a middle section of the voters.”
Its worth reading the whole article for gems like the following explanation of US party system:-
“Vermont, that leafy, quasi-autonomous Republic of armed PBS viewers, has a Republican governor who is pretty far to the left of most Democrats, especially those who want to nuke Iran. Meanwhile, Montana’s Democratic governor would not resile from invading Canada and enslaving its whiny liberal population to pull people’s cars when there is no more gas.”
Pancho, I understand that. It still doesn’t mean that, in terms of continuing to force the issue till the very end, camp Clinton won’t seek to use the Rules and Bylaws Committee to rule that some permutation of Florida/Michigan delegates be seated and then push the issue to the Credential Commitee (which would then be on the spot to ‘undemocratically’ strip Fl/Mi again, under the full glare of the (inter)national media).
I’m not saying this will work but:
(1) Clinton is still fighting (and spending cash) and it’s now May;
(2) I can’t see she’s just doing it for kicks;
(3) her camp is seeding these ‘nuclear option’ stories for a reason; and
(4) the running polls appear to be turning in her favour…
I sincerely apologise for taking your fantastical rantings seriously. Seeing that your ‘rebuttal’ (#465) merely involved pointing to the very link that I had already indicated showed you up as touting deliberately misleading figures. I won’t make the same mistake again. Although your Rudd/Swan rambling could surely be used as a ‘how not to…’ template by someone teaching an ESL class.
I would like it if there were some (more) serious, rational HRC supporters on here. I doubt whether all 14 million-odd of her US supporters are deluded and obsessive. (Possible, I guess, but odds against.) Seriously. And in saying that, I make no comment as to whether Adam qualifies. Obama really has been damaged over the last fortnight; the interesting issue is the ramifications of the damage, in circumstances where he’s still caught up in a protracted scragfight, but ultimately IMO the chances of him not being the Dem nominee are about the same as the chances of the Weagles recovering to win the AFL flag this year.
Talk of the nuclear option is timely because it is simply the only way HRC can win– while she remains in the game, supposedly to actually win rather than just wreck Obama, she might as well pursue it. (I think no-one, not even Howard Dean, is in any doubt that if it’s a choice between her own power and the interest of the Democratics party, she would be delighted to trash the Dems.) It’s a long-shot, but it’s her only long-shot. Would be interested in hearing more about the mechanics of how it might actually work.
Superdelegate update – since the addition of Kalyn Free (comment #500) midday yesterday, Clinton picks up half a delegate (mentioned at #502) while Obama picks up 3. These include the two super delegates from Maryland (mentioned at #503) – DNC Michael Cryor and DNC Lauren Glover. Lastly, Obama’s third super for the day was Richard Daley (IL), one of three add-on delegates (the other two delegates have not been included in the DCW count as yet but are widely known to be Obama supporters).
This bring the total down to 15.5 advantage Clinton or 9.5 when adjusted for the Pelosi factor.
Andrew at 558
The Pelosi factor is +7 for Obama and -1 for Clinton. This comes from the 6 undecided supers plus the 1 Clinton super (making 7 addition for Obama), and the defector from Clinton raises the -1 against Clinton. The other two Pelosi club members are already counted as Obama supporters in the base numbers (as such they should not be added when applying the Pelosi factor).
I was never around for ‘when will she concede?’ lotto, but my guess is after one or both of the following has happened:
a) Obama takes a confirmed lead in committed superdelegates, and/or
b) the nuclear option is deployed but fails.
‘Superdels should move en masse to whoever wins the popular vote after all regions have voted’ is a campaign strategy, not a serious possibility. A link earlier posted points to the impossibility of compiling universally accepted data on what the popular votes actually are, anyway.
Talk of the nuclear option is timely because it is simply the only way HRC can win– while she remains in the game, supposedly to actually win rather than just wreck Obama
SimonH,
Hillary’s “nuclear option” is just another red herring, designed to make people think she still has a chance of winning.
There is simply no way Michigan and Florida will be seated as is. There would be an uproar, not just from the Obama camp, but from millions of fair-minded Democrats. For a start, Michigan didn’t even have Obama’s name on the ballot, so there is no way Hillary won her share of delegates fairly.
One possibility touted about in recent days is to divide Michigan delegates evenly between Hillary and Obama, and give Florida delegates half a vote.
But even if Florida is awarded a full vote, Hillary still won’t get enough to win the nomination, unless she managed to get most of the superdelegates from here on, and at current trends, they are breaking Obama’s way.
Hillary knows she is finished. Her nuclear option is just another attempt at shifting the narrative so she can hang on for a while longer. The question we need to ask ourselves is why, or maybe you answered that when you said:
“I think no-one, not even Howard Dean, is in any doubt that if it’s a choice between her own power and the interest of the Democratics party, she would be delighted to trash the Dems.”
Harold Ickes was on MSNBC outlining the nuclear option and how ‘unfair’ it was that Foridian and Michigan democrats wouldn’t get to seat delegates.
Hmm, funny, but that is exactly what the candidates agreed to BEFORE these states held their primaries! LOL
Dio mentioned it earlier, how Clinton has shifted the goalposts every time her shot went wide, and she’ll continue doing so until someone blows a final whistle.
It looks like the IA and NC primaries will be another split, and we will travel closer and closer to Hillary going all out to get in her time machine and go back and change history in her favour.
Not only will this defy the laws of time travel, it will p!ss off a lot of people, and my hunch is that it will precipitate a move to shut her down. It would be ironic, that her aggresive desire to win by any means, would ultimately be the signal to the Supers that she is not concerned about the party, but that, I think, is what would happen.
Here lies the essence of its all: ["while Hillary Clinton tells lies, Barack Obama is himself a lie. That
is becoming painfully apparent with each new revelation of how drastically his carefully crafted image this election year contrasts with what he has actually been saying and doing for many years"] – The poll numbers in NC just remind me very much of NH.
Stupidity foils the black prince
Paul Sheehan
May 5, 2008, SMH
This column is about stupid black men, a sub-group now in the process of undermining the first ever realistic and galvanising tilt for the White House by an African-American. ……. Yet for Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana tomorrow, which ought to have dealt two more victories to Obama and the death blow to Senator Hillary Clinton, his poll numbers have seriously eroded over the past three weeks.
The Finns I have to congratulate you on your ability to point to a Clinton win despite the maths. Youre delusional, but at least you are committed, or perhaps you should be committed!!
Which is why, since the beginning of this year, Supers have been moving to Obama overwhelming and he’s soon to overtake her on the ONLY metric in which she is (very marginally) ahead.
Maybe for balance (as if!), Sheehan could do a piece on dumb white prejudice and how McCain is now pandering to the very ‘agents of intolerance’ he once so accurately named.
When Sheehan can discuss black liberation theology in the greater context of religious bigotry and tribalism, he might have something better to say than “Obama is the lie”.
Yep, his mother took food stamps and he’s worked his way to the top in a racist country, he’s got plaudits from a wide range of Democrats, but he’s a ‘lie’.
Sheehan’s article is appalling tripe. OK if you like offal.
That Paul Sheehan article is more authoratitive than anything else he has written for years. The reason? A guy who touted the miracle healing qualities of magic water (under the guise of ‘journalism’!) and then expected us all to gasp with surprised amazement when its peddler turned out to be a snake-oil salesman who ripped money off the ill and desperate, is acutely qualified to spot a “deluded narcissist”. He sees one every morning.
One thing I must say is though that Hillary has succeeded in pushing the “she’s still in the race” narrative
I don’t think this has been especially challenging. The media has been happy to help maintain the illusion of a possible Hillary victory because the controversy it creates (plus Hillary’s mud-slinging tactics) is good for sales, at least for now.
At some point, it will become tiresome though, if it hasn’t already.
Clinton-Obama, Obama-Clinton. How they could run together and take turns being president. By Akhil Reed Amar, Posted Friday, March 21, 2008
But which should it be: Clinton-Obama or Obama-Clinton? In fact, voters in November could actually endorse both versions of the ticket—truly, two presidents for the price of one. How? The Constitution's 25th Amendment allows for a new paradigm of political teamwork: The two Democratic candidates could publicly agree to take turns in the top slot. Adopted in 1967 in the shadow of John F. Kennedy's assassination, the 25th Amendment allows presidents unilaterally to transfer presidential power to their vice presidents and enables presidents, with congressional consent, to fill a vacancy in the vice presidency should one arise. By creatively using the constitutional rules created by this amendment, the Democrats can, if they are so inclined, present the voters in November with a new kind of balanced ticket.
Ferny Grover at 578
Just took a look at the SD calculator page you referenced – its currently showing the Hillary would need 78% of remaining SDs to win (which sounds more realistic to me).
I think I’ve spotted the difference – the 69% comes up if you assume Hillary’s average is equivalent to the PA results, whereas the 78% comes up if you assume that the remaining result will be equivalent to the average of the current results.
Yep Catrina. That’s based on the average result so far. It would be optimistic to think Obama will maintain that in the current climate – and West Virginia next week is probably going to be a thumping. So…even allowing for the unlikely scenario where Hillary wins all future contests with the same margin as PA, she will still need 69% of the remaining SDs.
With you there Smile. Even the unity ticket being touted seems like lunacy to me. Closest I can imagine at the moment would be Obama/Bayh, but I guess stranger things have happened.
I am a Clinton supporter. I hope that I am a relatively rational one.
Clinton winning the nomination is unlikely in the extreme, no matter the results of the next five state votes.
However, re Michigan and Florida, I personally do not think that it is fair for millions of voters to effectively lose their votes because the organising committees of their state primaries broke party rules. The organising committees and the state party should be punished, not the voters.
re Michigan, I would be quite happy for a 50/50 split there, but I think Florida should count in full. If I was an Obama supporter, I would not worry about that. Again: even with Florida, it is incredibly unlikely for Clinton to get sufficient numbers of SD to win the delegate count.
As to the electability argument, imo Clinton is far more electable than Obama based on current national and state polling. Clinton wins Ohio and Florida with ease, while Obama is in a tight contest (and behind) in those states. Ohio and Florida will yet again decide the presidential contest, whoever is the democratic candidate.
I will also state for the record that if Obama wins the nomination, I will definitely support him against McCain. After all, Clinton/Obama, tomato/tomata. (Well, not in every way, of course, but they are near enough on policy to be okay with me.)
welcome to the pollbludgin’ dungeon DG, and nice to have a HRC supporter who is not either incoherent or twitching Tourette’s afflicted! LOL
One argument from the Obama camp is that Hillary is playing the traditional swing state game, but Obama runs McCain a lot closer in his ‘home’ turf. In other words, Obama stands a good chance, if nominated, with a strong, well financed campaign and a population well fed up with Republican rule, to not just win a small number of swing states, but change the map entirely.
This latter scenario is the one that scares the bejesuz out of the Republicans, and one I’d contend is a good proposition IF Hillary concedes graciously and does NOT try to poison the well.
Beating Hillary in a couple of swing states, with her notorious negatives, may be a lot easier than running lots of contests where they aren’t resourced enough to endure a full frontal attack.
David Gould, a voice of reason and realism from the Hillary camp. What a refreshing change, we knew people like you existed, and to think I just said they dont visit PB! Welcome to the debate
Agree mostly with everything you say but I disagree with you assessment of their relative electabilities. Yes Clinton would wrap up Ohio and Florida. Obama is less convincing in those states but that’s OK because pretty much everywhere else he’ll rip the heart out of the Repubs.
Though, truth be told, I doubt it matters that much who’s running for the Dems. The GOP is dead in the water either way.
Thanks David Gould,
It’s always nice to meet a rational Hillary supporter.
Re the Florida and Michigan situation, I understand what you say about disenfranchising the voters who are the innocent victims of the state organisation’s poor decision. The problem is that the way the primaries were conducted renders them invalid. Hillary campaigned in Florida after agreeing not to – and Obama did not. Many supporters of both candidates stayed home believing that the vote would not count. The result, therefore, is not a true indication of the state’s voting intentions. To suddenly allow the vote to stand would be a great injustice to those who would have voted but did not do so in the circumstances. It would be an even greater injustice to Obama, who accepted his Party’s directions and did not campaign. To count the Florida vote would be to reward Hillary for flaunting her party’s instructions and for going back on her agreement not to campaign there.
Michigan, of course, is in an even worse situation as Obama was not on the ballot.
I cannot see any legal or just way in which these votes can be counted. The process was flawed – and so, therefore, are the results.
Welcome to PB. You raised the question of Michigan and Florida – and it isn’t a good picture. The Michigan scenario of 50/50 is sort of a null event, but misses the issue that the state broke the rules. I would be suggesting a 50/50 split and the application of half voting rights to each pledged delegate, and the elimination of all Michigan superdelegates (which if I understand correctly corresponds closely to the party minimum punishment policy). Florida is worse because we don’t have any reliable basis for evaluating distribution. I would suspect that some solution will arrive, but only after it is a null-event (i.e. numbers on committees, supers, pledged, etc.) will ensure that Florida + Michigan participation don’t change the ultimate result.
FG at 588 youve summarised the Michigan/Florida situation brilliantly. Yes it’s a shame that the votes dont count, but the party and the voters knew this well in advance. If both candidates have of campaigned in both states and been on both ballots, then you could argue some compromise scenario. The best option is to leave them out. And I would say the same if the Obama/Hillary voting % were reversed.
Obama has also shown a great ability to attract apathetic voters, not just owing to a well-organised grassroots campaign, but also due to a natural ability to deliver a strong and inspiring message.
This has been part of the reason why he appears to be changing the traditional blue-red map.
Don’t underestimate that “once-in-a-generation” feeling that has often been associated with Obama.
I fear that if Hillary were the Dem candidate, a whole heap of would-be voters simply won’t bother to vote because little difference will be seen between her and McCain, or her and the Republicans, especially after her latest talk of bombing Iran and that popularist, but ultimately ineffective gas tax holiday.
If you thought it was safe to go back into the water, then think again.
Seriously!
From today’s NYT:
And as Wall Street all but abandons the mortgage business, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now overwhelmingly dominate it, handling more than 80 percent of all mortgages bought by investors in the first quarter of this year. That is more than double their market share in 2006.
But some financial experts worry that the companies are dangerously close to the edge, especially if home prices go through another steep decline. Their combined cushion of $83 billion — the capital that their regulator requires them to hold — underpins a colossal $5 trillion in debt and other financial commitments.
….
“They are on real thin ice financially,” said Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior Republican on the Banking Committee. “And the way the law is written right now, there is very little we can do to correct that.”
__________________
…..so essentially, these two massive mortgage originators are woefully underfunded and there are some big losses not yet written off, and they’re holding small change compared to the size of their balance sheet.
It’s not hard to see why some very serious people are getting a wee bit jittery!
And anyone who’s followed the history of these two institutions knows, they ain’t been the straightest shooters of the corporate world.
Needless to say, if either of these two goes to jelly, Bear Stearns will seem like a picnic in the park.
Catrina, it is my understanding of the rules that there is no provision to strip SDs of voting rights. From memory the charter calls for something along the lines of a half vote for regular delegates with no mention of SDs at all. I may be wrong though.
And the case for a Michigan 50/50 split is complicated by the fact that there is a group of people ‘uncommitted’, who think that they are entitled to seats now. They did run and win votes. If all of them are not for Obama and cannot be accommodated by the list he wants, there’s more trouble again.
A third point – while at full value Clinton will net 38 delegates vs. Obama in Florida, this is not the whole picture. Edwards also won 13 delegates in that state, and we don’t know how they would fall. You would expect Edwards supporters to be closer to Obama, but Florida is a wacky place.
Noocat I agree but I respect the right of Hillary and her supporters to argue the electability issue. The numbers are against her and I would expect her to employ any tactic reasonably available to her, and she must be mightily miffed that a nomination that was all but hers last year has slipped out of her hands. What is more annoying is the MSM swallowing her spin and failing by and large to point out the reality of the numbers
Pancho at 594
I thought that 1/2 vote thing applied to all of the delegates under discussion (pledged, super, add-on, etc.) but I could very easily be off base with that assumption.
I have read a number of people (unsurprisingly, Anti-Hillary) complain of a few things about her. I will address two of them right now:
1. That she changes the rules when it suits her.
2. That she is a habitual liar.
Regarding #1: Clinton criticised Dean’s decision to unseat the delegates BEFORE the Florida vote – on Jan. 25, in fact, and well before she could be confident of winning the vote. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2533575920080126
Regarding #2: I have just been to a site called PolitiFact (www.politifact.org). It is unafraid to call any of the candidates, from either party, on any falsehoods they speak. I did a cursory analysis of Clinton’s profile there vs. Obama’s.
The site rates statements in 6 stages: True, Mostly True, Half-True, Barely-True, False and Pants-on-fire False.
True: This statement is true factually and in intent. Example: Hillary Clinton -”He (Obama) chairs the subcommittee on Europe. … He’s held not one substantive hearing to do oversight.” – referring to Afghanistan.
Mostly True: The point of this statement is accurate, but a few details got lost along the way. Example: Hillary Clinton – “I have 35 years’ experience making change.”
Half-True: Either the facts are wrong, or the point is misleading, but neither is actually false, let alone both. Example: Hillary Clinton – “Barack Obama said in 2004 “that he basically agreed with the way George Bush was conducting the war.”".
Barely-True: There is misleading happening here, but statement is technically true – if only technically. It may be that a candidate has misstated a projection as a fact, or a belief as an analysis. Example: Hillary Clinton – “Obama voted for “tax subsidies and giveways” that have slowed oil companies from pursuing clean energy sources.”
False – It’s wrong. It may be wrong due to a mistake or to a lie, but it’s wrong. Example: Hilalry Clinton – “Obama “only wants your children to have health insurance.”"
Pants-on-fire False – It’s a lie. Or just plain, totally wrong. Example: Hillary Clinton – “I remember landing under sniper fire in Bosnia”.
Hillary Clinton’s results:
True: 31 (44.2%)
Mostly True: 7 (10%)
Half-True: 16 (22.9%)
Barely-True: 8 (11.4%)
False: 6 (8.6%)
Pants-on-fire false: 2 (2.9%)
TOTAL: 70 statements by Hillary Clinton were analysed by PolitiFact. Categories 1-3 describe statements that are either true outright, or within acceptable bounds of not-quite-truthfulness. For Senator Clinton, this area totals 77.1% of all statements made. Categories 5 & 6 describe either outright lies, or severely off-base remarks. Senator Clinton’s total of these is 11.4% of all statements analysed by PolitiFact.
Barack Obama’s results:
True: 15 (28.8%)
Mostly True: 10 (19.2%)
Half-True: 12 (23.1%)
Barely-True: 2 (3.8%)
False: 13 (25%)
Pants-on-fire false: 0
TOTAL: 52 statements by Barack Obama were analysed by PolitiFact. Senator Obama’s Category 1-3 rating is 71.1%, and his Category 5-6 rating is 25%.
This indicates the following to me:
1. Senator Clinton, the vast majority of the time, either sticks to the truth or keeps within shouting distance of it, as does Senator Obama.
2. Senator Clinton has been caught in a couple of outright lies (once about Bosnia, once when she twisted Obama’s words regarding Paksitan). Senator Obama, to date, has not.
3. Senator Obama, however, is prone to helpful misinterpretation of facts far more often than Senator Clinton is. Examples include several misquotes by him, of Senator Clinton, when his quote failed to capture the words or the spirit of what she was saying, or examples of when he got policy facts just plain wrong.
4. Unsurprisingly, MaCain is streets behind either Democrat in this measure.
There (up near the top) are the facts, and there’s (at the bottom) my analysis of them. (The reason I picked Clinton’s statements was that only she had entries in each category). Express agreement or disagreement as you see fit.
Mathew, you have a bit of Clintonism going on with your number 1 assertion. From the link you posted:
“In those states, Michigan and Florida, Clinton could stake claim to nearly all the delegates to the nominating convention in question — more than 350.
She was the only candidate on the Democratic ballot in Michigan and holds a strong lead in Florida, which holds its contest on Tuesday.
So after she had been on the ballot in Michigan (and Obama had not), a ballot which she had said “wouldn’t count for anything”, and had pledged to set aside while courting New Hampshire, she then gave an about face. At this stage she also had a polling and demographic advantage in Florida, along with all that being a frontrunner and household name in that state afforded. That’s changing the rules midgame in my book.
3) After Obam withdrew from the Michigan ballot, his staff campaigned on behalf of “uncommitted”, who Clinton still beat 55%-40%.
4) You fail to address the arguments that Clinton made in the article, specifically
“I know other campaigns have tried to downplay the significance of these two states,” Clinton told reporters. “I think that is not a good strategy for Democrats or any of us who cares about the outcome of this election.”
Rating: Barely true. You do present a few facts, but out of context and distorted to suit your case.
Billary and Obami both signed pledges in black and white that they would agree not to seat the delegates from MI and FL. It seems to escaped Hillary’s twisted brain but they WERE NOT DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS. The US is STILL A DEMOCRACY. Just.
The people who should be strung up are the morons on the MI and FL democrat Committees who flaunted the rules to make themselves more important, then played chicken with the DNC and lost. I hope they have all been forced to resign.
1. How were the primaries undemocratic? Anyone could have their names on the ballot, and anyone had the right to campaign. To be sure, both Clinton and Obama promised not to (and Obama violated that promise – see above), but they could have if they’d wanted. Just because Obama didn’t win does not make them undemocratic. Further, if Obama is such a great democratist, then why has he publicly opposed re-votes for Florida and Michigan, and for that matter, why does he do so much better in caucuses (undemocratic, to say the least) than in primaries? If Obama truly supported democracy, he would refuse to compete in primaries, in which people must publicly state their candidate of choice, which are held without any real oversight, and which are usually held during working hours, thus skewing the demographics.
2. Clinton hasn’t seated the delegates. She is calling for DNC to allow them to be seated – in effect, to release her from her promise. She is allowed to try to get them to change their minds, you know.
3. Add to this the idiots on the DNC who took all the delegates (rather than half, as the GOP did) to your list of people to tar and feather, and you’ll have my support.
1. The DNC asked all candidates to withdraw their names from the MI ballot. This was not ‘Obama’s choice’. Hillary stayed on and claimed it was no big deal, seeing as the vote ‘wouldn’t count’. For her to want it counted now as is, is cheating.
2. Obama had booked national ads before that pledge was made. And contrary to your argument, again from the link you provide:
“Obama spokesman Bill Burton responded in a statement that the two networks said it would be impossible to exclude Florida TV sets from a national ad. “For that reason we consulted with the South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Carol Fowler, who told us unequivocally she did not consider this to be in violation of pledge made to the early states,” Burton said.
I agree that the airing of these ads is a grey area, but no less grey than Clinton’s behaviour in the leadup to the vote – claiming she would ‘fight’ for Florida’s rights. She had also
“dispatched campaigner-in-chief Bill Clinton to the state for weeks of just-below-the-radar campaigning. On Sunday, she flew to Florida, violating the pledge all the major Democratic contenders has made to avoid campaigning in the state that scheduled its primary earlier than was allowed by the Democratic National Convention. She promised to do everything in her power — which could be considerable if she is the presumed nominee — to overturn a DNC bar on the seating of Florida delegates at this summer’s Democratic National Convention.
She even appeared in Florida on primary night to claim her victory.
3. If all of ‘uncommitted’ were for Obama, why are only 2/3 of them claiming they will now vote for him? Further, there were mobilisations of Dems in MI to vote strategically for Romney, as well as Obama and Edwards supporters who would have stayed home. This contest was just not right, and rightfully, it won’t be seated as is.
4. I don’t think ‘the other campaigns’ (read as either Obama and Edwards or just Obama) have played down either state. Obama has repeatedly said that he would accept a 50/50 split. Obviously Clinton does not want to accept that because it does help her catch up. But if she really wanted them included, and included NOW, she could take this 50/50 split, and those states are back in.
Ultimately something that does not have an adverse effect on the course of the contest will be settled and the delegations will be seated. Dean has stated as much, and rooms are booked for all of the delegates at Denver. I would argue that it is not in Clinton’s interest to have the matter settled at present (because of the uncertainty that this affords her and the actual endpoint) so she continues to press for an outcome that she knows will be unacceptable to Obama and the DNC. Which is a fair tactic in some respects, but she is definitely not just just battling for democracy here.
“ a more perfect union …of mathematics vs racial equality values tested
A NEW statistical electability black hole , one of the the aces still kept in the hand ,
But first , to fill in the Obama’s current ads & minus’s in political mathematics
Delegate race :
Obama I estimate will win the delegate race 51% to 49%
This insignificant 2% margin does not justify selecting Obama as Nominee. Again such a small 2% margin doesn’t justify selecting Obama as your Nominee as if this is the criteria , a delegate winner could win based solely on all unwinnable ‘red’ States primary wins !
Popular Vote :
Obama I estimate will win the popular vote by 50.5% to 49.5% (Hillary now leads)
How the Michigan &Florida delegate numbers dispute is handled is still unknown
Irrespective one can reasonably assume the DNC Democrat Leadership will publicly include the registered Democrat voters of Michigan & Florida in their popular vote count. They know the Democrat faithfull (two million of them) wanted to register their voice & preference despite KNOWING there were no delegates up for grabs.
2 million registered Democrats said this is a Primary showing our preference & 860,000 voted anti Hillary.This reality will force the 2,013,647 registered Democrat voters from Michigan & Florida to be counted in the popular count
So Obama wins the popular vote 50.5% to 49.5% ,a mere 1% margin that does not justify selecting Obama as Nominee.It is not a popularity contest amongst the faithful where one wins by only 1% , your Nominee must be most electable to win
‘a Political Party’s first priority is to win’ or is it in 2008 , a question : Both mathematical measurements do show small Obama wins likely. Usually such wins would be also supported by polls strongly showing the delegate winner was ALSO the most electable. However the problem in 2008, this is not the case , the delegate winner (‘black’) by a small margin is not the same Candidate the polls show is by far the most electable. The Partys problem is choosing between Hillary who should be Nominee (as she’s by far statistically more electable) vs Obama (less electable but ‘black’) with the worry perception the narrow delegate winner (and ‘black’) being overturned for a ‘white’ may smack of breaching a Party core value & of racial inequality…when this is untrue. The fact Obama ‘change message’ (but not detailed) appeals to those disenchanted with current politics makes Obama a double Party & SD’s nightmare. The statistical evidence showing Hillary being more electability is :
Obama having in my opinion won both above counts STARTS with a narrowly better argument than Hillary to be Nominee & is entitled to , but the narrowness of his victory only means he gets a narrow benefit of the doubt on statistical grounds regarding whether he is the more electable, ie if more likely to win.
The ‘more electability’ Political question , being of 5 parts :
The first part is the National comparative polls : Hillary/Obama vs McCain show Hillary with a huge lead meaning her base is solid and widespread with more general capacity to pick up more E/V vs Obama’s by comparison is shaky.
The 2nd part is key States E/V comparative polls : Hillary/Obama vs McCain in key swing States show Hillary can win the E/V States necessarily required to win POTUS whereas Obama is very unlikely to do so on those polls , making POTUS unlikely. Obama instead will pick up ‘useless’ (for POTUS purposes) , big votes in already ‘blue’ States that Hillary will also win and in a lot of red’ States neither Hillary or Obama can win.
The 3rd part is use of comparative polls : it should be noted that if the comparative Polls were absolutely guaranteed , then the SDs already would have delivered Hillary the Nomineeship. The reason this has not occurred.is US polling standards are behind Australia’s partly caused by their profit motive in each rushing out polls to earn money. The result is the samples are lower than ‘oz’ causing the consequential moe higher , the non compulsory aspect makes the moe’s worsened again, turnout numbers are unknown , different methodologies used re the voter base between likely voter vs registered voters & how successful the losing candidate will be to get their core to turn out for the nominee winner. Overriding all is the polling done really needed to establish by more than one poll in a state & with much larger samples the continuing core Democrat support vs McCain and the quantum of switch or will not vote voters separately which runs counter to the profit motive , logistics etc and hence comparative polls are used & are more saleable. This flaw is somewhat similar to the ‘oz’ polls flaw where they do not poll ‘swing voters’and do National and State polls. One could argue as a result not to take any notice of comparative polling. However the comparative polling is a fact of life and taking account of the above should be used as a guide to electability with other relevant psephologically factors. On this basis , Hillary vs Obama using comparative polling means Hillary has a massive edge as a starting guide saying she is far more electable which not only cancels Obama’s 2% delegate lead advantage , but places her well infront due to the swing states value
The 4th part is the key E/V States won in Primarys by the candidates : Hillary has won 3 of these key States (Pennsylvania , Ohio & Florida ) very decisively over Obama. These clear Primary wins also make the comparative polling results favoring Hillary in these key E/V States even more credible. Hillary has also won most of the ‘big States.meaning its easier to get to the 270 E/V to win POTUS. However the E/V Primary results in the 3 key swing States mentioned is of more significance proving a massive advantage over Obama on more electable, based on actual key swing States Primary results
The 5th part is the mathematical demographic is double count Obama negative :
Hillary has a substantial statistical advantage over Obama in demographic calculations when allied to polls that have an reasonable moe.. Taking a National Poll (and there have been similar others previously with similar results) with a reasonable moe 3.1% of all voter types in the last 2 weeks , 30% of Hilary voters (Obama voters 21%) allegedly would vote for McCain if their Candidate was not the Nominee.Whilst the %’s may be historically high , this race has also been usually vicious & ‘bitter’ between their respective supporters so history is not necessarily a safe guide. More likely is a lot of Hillary voters will vote McCain & a lot of Obama supporters just will not vote. Almost all political pundits agree with this likely difference between how the 2 disaffected Hillary & Obama voting blocks will respond.
The mathematical theoretical effect is those Hillarys voters switching to McCain not only reduces the Obama vote by one, but adds one vote against Obama to McCain. Whereas an Obama supporter not voting at all (& so not for Hillary) just reduces the Hillary vote by one but McCain does not get that additional vote as they didn’t vote. Taking the above Poll of 30% & 21% as a starting example , would mean Hillary needs to find 9% of other voters & Obama needs to find the equivalent of 18% of Hillary’s existing voters from other voting groups. The cause of the differential is the demographics etc of a LARGER block of ‘centre’ Hillary voters disaffected by Obama’s nomination who’ll switch to McCain as they do have some commonality of political affiliation with McCain views as opposed Obama’s more ‘northeast “liberal Democrat” liberal views vs a SMALLER bloc of Obama supporters who’d never vote Repug and who will simply not vote at all. This is subject to the inherent questions posed in part 3 , polling in the US. However the polls of Hillary’s key demographic support base & Obama’s are generally support both the differential & the likely respective Candidate’s core voter response
Therefore re the 5th part , the double dipping Hillary advantage , even if one contracts the starting poll example figures of 30% and 21% , there is a significant margin of disaffected Hillary voters vs Obama’s AND with the additional double dipping effect of lots of Hillary’s switching to McCain unlike Obama’s, makes Obama’s electability significantly less than Hillary’s , without offsetting massive Obama theoretical voters who have NOT voted at the Primarys and are not caught by the example Poll listed and whose existence is questionable at best.
Conclusion The 5 statistical parts listed as starting point guides all show Hillary as far more electable than Obama , a fact the SD’s likely may ignore lacking courage courage to face down racial equality principles do apply equally to black & white regarding the least electable white or black
1. Obama could have stayed on the ballot. He chose not to, in order to oblige the DNC. Debate the contrast as you please, but he DID have the option of defying them, as Clinton did (and has paid the price for, since then). He chose not to.
2. Fine. Neither set of hands is entirely clean. But don’t then trash Clinton while deifying Obama – after all, his hands are also not clean.
3. You fail to answer my point. Obama actively encouraged people to vote “uncommitted” as an anti-Hilalry gesture. “Uncommitted” got just 40% of the vote against Hillary’s 55%, so unless you are alleging poll fraud, what’s your point? I do agree that MI has a far better case for a re-do rather than seating the original, but to simply keep them out is stupid and will cost the Democrats big in November.
4. What’s the point of a 50/50 split? It’s a mockery, especially in Florida, where there was a significant gap between the results for Clinton and Obama. So of course Obama would love a 50/50 split – it diasallows his poor vote result, and denies Clinton a chance to catch up. Certainly, Obama’s position isn’t born out of idealism here. And he has specifically, and repeatedly, stated that bhe believes in counting every vote and every voice. Where’s the action backing that up when it’s inconvenient for him?
1. Obama is part of a PARTY. He abided by their rules.
2. I didn’t trash Clinton for campaigning in FL, only responded to your argument that Obama was the sole one who did.
3. Obama was not on the ballot. Dunno how else to put it if you don’t get that. Further, the vote has been deemed unconstitutional by MI courts, AND the MI legislature was the one who put an end to any talk of a rvote, not Obama.
4. The mockery is the whole FL & MI business from beginning to end. Personally, I will be very surprised if FL is not seated at 1/2 vote value. But this is not what Hillary is seeking. And you are arguing that Hillary’s position is that for the good of the Dems that FL be involved. If that is the case she can have it sorted now with a 50/50. I do not for a minute think that she will accept this, or think she doesn’t know that Obama and the DNC will reject what she is proposing. So my conclusion stands: It is a stunt and she is trying to buy time.
Some movement on the RCP averages for NC which has just seen Obama move from a 7% lead to 7.8%. The change is due to a …surprise!…Zogby poll giving Obama a 14% lead. What are they sniffin’?
Once again a very intelligent summary of the situation. I have looked forward to your intermittant contributions to the debate.
One thing this Primary contest has shown is the preparedness of US citizens to participate in the process. The registration of voters is wonderful and shows a resurgence of interest in the political process.
Democracy is a game for every one to play and those who suggest that the process should be truncated because of their partisan viewpoints clealy don’t understand the resurgence of political activism in the US. More power to the people is what I say.
Clearly Obama took an early lead. But, as the process continues, questions have emerged that he has not to date been able to effectively counter. Hillary, on the other hand, started slowly but is certainly on a surge. Tomorrow’s Primaries in Indiana and NC will probably fiurther muddy the waters. But, I believe that Obama should continue the quest if only to re establish his credibility.
The question of Michigan and Florida has to be sorted. It is gross stupidity to expect the energised electorate to accept a situation where whold chunks of the population are disenfranchised because of a technicality. It can’t stand and it won’t stand.
To those deserately counting delegates or asserting that one candidate has a lead, so therefore has a moral entitlement to the nomination, one can only say that the SDs will decide what is in the best interests of the Party and who will achieve the ultimate success in November. That is their right and that is their duty.
So let us not hear of sour grapes and absolutes. The system allows many twists and turns. Be satisfied that the process is happening and eventually a candidate will emerge.
To those deserately counting delegates or asserting that one candidate has a lead, so therefore has a moral entitlement to the nomination, one can only say that the SDs will decide what is in the best interests of the Party and who will achieve the ultimate success in November. That is their right and that is their duty.
I don’t want to burst your bubble or anything but it is very likely that the numbers will establish a de facto nomination sometime in July. Just add up the pledged delegates, add to that the super delegates than endorse one of the other, add the supers that declare their vote based on a logical construct (e.g. voting fo the winner of my state, or voting for the leading in pledged delegates, or voting for the winner of the popular vote, etc., etc.).
There comes a point in the process when one of the candidates cannot win – and when that moment happens – it’s game over – with the single proviso of the process that plays out during the convention itself. If Howard Dean does his job the process will be smooth and by the numbers (don’t you just love that expression).
3. People may not have bothered to turn up if their choice of candidate was known to have removed himself from the ballot. This argument that the ‘uncommitteds’ is the full vote for Obama is quite specious.
Michigan is clear cut in my opinion. Obama complied with the rules (OK he may have known he was in for a thrashing with rust belt whites) and Clinton did not. They cannot seat Michigan on Clinton’s claim that she won it.
Zogby polls seem to over estimate Obama while ARG and SUSA seem to do the same for Clinton.
That being said, I still expect Obama to win NC by around 10.
Maybe, maybe not. Show me 2024 committed delgates. Not projections, not wishful thinking based on emotive extrapolations from guesses based on moral certitudes contrived from the true essence of jazzy swizzle sticks.
#614 – [In short, I’ll be very very surprised if Obama’s win in NC is not closer to 14% than 7%. I think Zogby is (finally) in for a win] – Zorby predicted 14% for Obama in NH. So i wouldn’t trust it very much. like i said before NC is looking very similar to NH.
NC demographics are vastly different to NH. The pre-polling seems similar, but my guess is the final result will be very different. Tomorrow will tell.
Finns – “like i said before NC is looking very similar to NH.” – except for the the demographics, which have predicted the races far more accurately than the polling to date. I am going with Obama +15 in NC, Clinton +4 in IN. Throw down some predictions!
Thats fair points you make . I’m english concise dyslixic & elewhere quite honestly do pass my political papers over to more skilled literary colleagues. As to sources , thats are fair point. The stats on National % vs McCain are on one section of RealclearPolitics, Swing states Pensylvania Ohio & Florida elswhere there listed , there’s a computayion sub menu of all registered democrat votes cast including Michigan & Florida , the Poll was National AP one 28/4/08 moe 3.1% , the 3 key state actual Primary wins % are on the CNN site , the demographic splits are from numerous exit polls by Primary (but one time I quoted Hillary got 75% of the working class towns votes in Ohio & this was a national trend which after being challenged Diogenes did the exercise & agreed with me) , Hillary core are the working class , rednecks, poor non college educated , female , asian , jews,, majority of Catholics , over 50’s & hispanic, the acual primary results & in my haste to post excluded Edwards etc and the combined 2 Primaary vote was 2,278,257. Florida were 1,684, 390 regidstered Democrats Hillary 50% , Obama 33% Edwards 14% others 3% and Michigan 593,867 registered Democrat voters Hillary 55% incommitted 40% others 5% from ABC site ,
the 2% delgate win was my estimation about 8 weeks ago& I’m stuck with that
and the 1% popular win I calculated about after the Ohio primary, my estimations
ASIDE
2,278,257 registered Democrats knew the Primary dates & turned up to vote and said to DNC head offivce p….off do , this is our Party they voted freely, by secret ballot , had a choice of Hillary vs Edwards /Obama in Florida and Hillary vs anti Hillary in Michigan. This is what happened.
There is not a political commentator in the US even from Obama’s camp that disputes that these results are what was expected & would have occurred had there been full campaigning. The polls in January also support these results
for these January held Primarys
the DNC lead by Howard Dean , Obama’s factional ally rely on that the dates were not satisfactory to the DNC or other States. The dates ?? if someone like Magabe denied his opposition key states where the opposition was strong in based on the suitability of dates & almost 2.3 million still turned up to vote , we’d call that vote rigging. The consequence of Dean & others decision was to materially assist their factionn ally Obama & Hillary was faced with uposetting SD’s or challenging an undemocratic decision and hurting the Party
I rounded the votes to solely a duel contest Hillary vs Obama giving her around
57% to 43%
Evening all- a quick check in with no time to review the days prior posts – so in 20 words or less (which excludes some of you) can someone give me the rundown on the SD’s : and anything else worth noting.
Thanks
Pancho, the RACE (Black) in NC factor is being neutralised by the “Higher Income & education” in NH. My prediction is Hillary by 5 in Indiana Jones and Obama by 2 or 50/50 in Sweet Caroline.
North Carolina Demographics (2006 Census ACS)
* Population: 8,856,505
* Gender: 49.0 male, 51.0 female
* Race: 70.3 white, 21.4 black, 1.8 asian, 0.5 indian, 0.1 pacific islander, 6.7 hispanic,
* Age: 75.7% 18 years and over; 12.1% 65 years and over; Median age:
* Median Household Income: $42,625
* Families Below Poverty Level: 10.7%
* Education: 10.9% of those over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher
New Hampshire Demographics (2006 Census ACS)
* Population: 1,314,895
* Gender: 49.2 male, 50.8 female
* Race: 95.1 white, 1.1 black, 2.0 asian, 0.5 indian, 0.0 pacific islander, 2.3 hispanic,
* Age: 77.4% 18 years and over; 12.3% 65 years and over; Median age:
* Median Household Income: $59,683
* Families Below Poverty Level: 4.9%
* Education: 14.1% of those over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher
Laura Bush pulls a news conference to slam the Myanmar junta over their ‘not caring about their own people’ over their failure to notify the population about the impending cyclone.
“I believe that, if he is the Democratic candidate for president, Senator Obama will lose in November. There are many people in the Democratic Party and its leadership who feel that way. They are told that, nevertheless, the party must accept Obama even if he arrives at the convention with fewer committed delegates than needed to win the nomination. They say that to deprive him of victory under all of these circumstances would so enrage his supporters that they would either stay home in November or cross party lines and vote for Senator John McCain. Many superdelegates who will be making the decision to nominate the Democratic candidate will be told that they will permanently damage the party by causing a defection of the black vote if they deprive Obama of victory. There is no doubt that were the superdelegates to do what they were appointed to do – provide to the best of their ability a candidate who is perceived to be best able to win in November against the Republican candidate – they will be vilified by many Democrats if they do not select Obama.”
Catrina- cheers!
I appreciate it; too busy drinking wine in front of the fire with dear friend so will get back alter.
Grinch – glad to see you are alive and well.
xx
Ron at 609, you’ve become a parody, youre post are purely for comedy value only. Barely worth responding to but I like the sport of it all
Let me stop you at “Obama wins delegate count 51% to 49%”: you must realise that this is THE END. Full stop. Its who win the most delegates.
The rest of the post is a waste of space.
Adam, he also said: “But politics is a complex business. If Clinton carries Indiana and then goes on to win Kentucky and West Virginia, her chances will greatly improve. Stay tuned. It ain’t over till it’s over”.
That’s why the preoccupation of the Obama supporters here on the maths and ignoring the complex political juxtaposition is really amusing.
That would be the same Ed Koch who came out in 2004 and declared that Kerry did not have the cojones to ‘fight terrorism’ and he was, after a lifetime in the Democratic party, going to vote for Bush?
That Ed Koch?
Oh, how funny that he’d be stumping for Hillary! LOL
If Bill Kristol and Ed Koch aren’t good mates, then I’m the Buddha:
“As long as Kennedy and Robert Byrd are considered major leaders of the Democratic Party, and while we’re seeing radical candidates like Howard Dean, whose radical-left supporters have been described by the press as ‘Deaniacs,’ the Democratic Party will be limited in its ability to serve the country well in times of crisis and war like we face now.”
Koch thinks Kerry is putting on a facade by campaigning as tough on terrorism, and worries the Democratic nominee plans to pull American troops from Iraq prematurely, signaling to al-Qaida and terror-supporting Mideast dictators that the U.S. doesn’t have the will to fight terrorism.
Koch has been impressed with Bush’s response to the Sept. 11 attacks, and says terrorism must rank as the most important issue for voters in the November elections.
He says he supports Bush because “I think the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption is crucial. Bush says ‘We will go after the terrorists and the countries that harbor them.’ And he has demonstrated that he means it by invading Afghanistan and Iraq, both threats to their regions and to the U.S.”
I recall Finns having the best record with recent tipping but Finns couldn’t all those poor uneducated voters be Repugs anyway, listening to Rush and polishing their guns? I’m going NC to Obi by 7% and IN to Hills by 8%. Little change one way or the other.
607 Mathew
It’s sort of a fundamental for a democratic election for the candidate to have their name on the ballot. Even Saddam Hussein let the opposition have that. That sorts Michigan. In Florida it’s not a democratic vote without a campaign, advertising, meeting the voters, making speeches, getting the grass roots party officials out etc. That’s how the voters decide who to support.
Current polls indicate Obi is ahead of Hill in Michigan so 50/50 would be fair. Hill would beat Obi by about 10% in Florida. They should split the delegates accordingly but only give each 0.5 vote to stop these dic*heads from doing this again. And the SDs who voted to go early and created all the problems should lose their vote completely.
1. Almost the entire 21% of black voters are Democratic. Which corresponds to the 40%+ who have pre-polled. This will probably end up in the high 30s.
2. The education point notes 11% of Bachelors over 25. This does not account for the 3 huge college towns in NC – who would mostly be under 25 – and who have been actively pursued and targeted. I have a hunch this lot is a good part of the 488,000 early voters as well.
“In April 2008 when Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita announced the release of “record high” voter registration rolls, with 4.3 million voters set to vote in the Tuesday May 6 primary, he didn’t mention that a whopping 1,134,427 voter registrations have been cancelled.”
“I’ll confess now that I will be silently praying to God that Hillary wins tomorrow and thereafter, even though I know it is foolish to think the Almighty – in whom I believe – intervenes in elections. Ridiculous, but who knows?”
Koch went on to express hope that Clinton and John McCain carry the day for their respective party’s nominations, calling them “the pick of the litter.”
As you can see KR, Good Ol ED is quite happy with either Hill or Bomb Bomb
Rusty, some more on that story here – may not be entirely underhanded:
‘According the the most recent 2006 estimates, the state of Indiana has an approximate population of 6.3 million people. Given that probably at least a good 20-25% of that population would be too young to vote, a voter registration of 5.4 million would represent more than 100% of the voting age population of Indiana.
4.3 million would still represent a better than 90% registration, which is truly impressive in American politics.
#651 – Amigo, it would be interesting to see the impact of Obama’s Philly Mark 2 on Wright on the Blacks. It has NOT been discussed and analysed much but there has been some rumbling among the Blacks, who supported Wright, over Obama throwing of the Pastor under the bus. I will be surprised if Obama gets the usual 80%+
If anything the whole Wright issue will see a closing of ranks around Obama as far as the black vote goes. It will be seen as an attempt to derail ‘their’ candidate. Allegience is to Obama, not Wright. The folks of NC only know Wright as a distant loudmouth, whereas Obama is their candidate.
The Obama supporting black vote is not going to vote for Hillary. If there was a fear, it was that they would stay home. But after showing 41% in the pre-polls, I think we can conclude that the black vote is out in force, and this is a big plus for Obama.
Finnigans #628 Clinton cried before New Hampshire. She was all warm and sensitive. The chances of her pulling that stunt off after toting guns and generally remodelling herself as an erzatz redneck, Iran-nuking valkyrie are…shall we say…somewhat limited.
Finns @ 655 [there has been some rumbling among the Blacks]
Crikey Finns, soon we’ll be hearing the drums … the incessant beat of those blasted drums… . Quick, pour me another gin and tonic, I think the drums are getting closer.
659
Ron
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:01 pm |Permalink
Adam
#640 is right
Its what I said at #633.
The race card has been used on SD’s over the last month which explains the SD movement to Obama since then despite Obama’s bad 4 weeks when the SD’s endorsements should gone the reverse way
The left media & Obama supportersbought the cubboard message without checking the man & the skeletons inside
Re Michigan , Is anyone suggesting Obama’s vote would have increased IF Obama’s name was on the ballot If not your argument collapses & so it should Hillary had around 15% plus leads in polls in both on a duel opponent basis
660
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:04 pm |Permalink
Ron – “Re Michigan , Is anyone suggesting Obama’s vote would have increased IF Obama’s name was on the ballot”
I think everyone is suggesting that. Also if the lesser known candidates had been allowed to campaign. Also if the vote (according to the courts) was constitutional. You’ve got a tough gig defending that one.
661
Dyno
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:18 pm |Permalink
Counting Michigan is crazy – like if one team, having been told by the organisers that the game is cancelled, don’t turn up, and then the other team tries to claim a win on forfeit. By all means feel sorry for the MI voters, but don’t take it out on Obama.
Counting Florida is arguable, but it’s not enough to make a difference.
Wright is a liability to Obama, and may yet do him considerable damage in the general, but it’s all too late to save Hillary. If Wright had burst forth any time before about late February, he would have had an impact on this race. Since then it’s just been about Hillary (for whatever motives, good or bad) prolonging things – the race is over.
Bring on tomorrow.
662
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:18 pm |Permalink
ahem, from Drudge, quoting Hillary staff:
“Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.
“Look, we worked hard and gave it our best shot, but the demographics, well, they are what they are,” a top campaign source explained to the DRUDGE REPORT as voting began Tuesday morning.
The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.
663
Ron
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:28 pm |Permalink
Pancho
#660
The Polls in January are consistent with Hillary’s 55% to Obama’s 40% result
so thats my basis. Your view Obama’s vote would have been higher is your opinion not suppotered by Polls
Also Obama encouraged voters to come out & vote anti Hillary as ‘uncommitted’
So does when Obama says come & vote ‘uncommitted’ thats not as appealing as saying come out and vote “Obama’
There is the actual result , the Polls & Obama’s active pursuit of voters to vote
against a partisan opinion.
Disallowing FL & MI is US style vote rigging and 593,867 people including Obama & Edwards supporters if they could vote on the DNC would throw the lot out
664
Ron
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:29 pm |Permalink
the total quoted voting was MI only , not including Florida 1,684,390
665
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:30 pm |Permalink
Oh the Finns, now it’s “the preoccupation of the Obama supporters here on the maths”. You do better making yourself sound silly than anything we could say. You just dont get it. To paraphrase, “It’s the maths, stupid”
666
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:32 pm |Permalink
As with the Federal election, where it was not point arguing with Glen, Nostra and co., there is actually no point in arguing with Finns, Ron and GG, although I have been as guilty as most. Just as it took the fed election to prove the others wrong, it will take Obama’s nomination to prove Hillary supporters wrong, and they wont give an inch a second earlier than that.
667
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:35 pm |Permalink
No Ron, my position is supported by reality, the rules, and the interpretation of the Constitution by Michigan Courts. And the DNC. And the way things have played out and will play out. Politics is numbers, and they are with Obama.
668
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:39 pm |Permalink
Pancho, stop being preoccupied with the maths
669
Dyno
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:39 pm |Permalink
Why would the average SD (a middle-ranking, career politician whose overwhelming interest is self-advancement and preservation) want to take the risk of overturning the elected nominee?
Answer: they wouldn’t, unless they’re committed to Team Clinton for some particular historical reason, and surely nearly all those SDs are already in the Clinton column.
Then there’s the minor point that all the SD traffic has been one way recently, and it’s all to Obama.
So SDs won’t save her, and it’s mathematically impossible for the elected delegates to do so.
670
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:41 pm |Permalink
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:55 pm |Permalink
Pancho you know the then polls do not support your view Obama would have got more votes , he chased voters to vote ‘uncommitted’ & got 238,000
Your suggesting abide by the DNC Rules. I’m saying the rules were used as a rort to favor Obama at Hillary’ expense by Obama’s mate Dean & DNC levying the harshest possible penalty to disenchancise 2,278,257 people , all registered voters , including approx 1 million of Obama & Edwards supporters.
over a date(s) that didn’t suit the DNC & some States. The 2.3 million people agree with me , they voted.
675
Andrew
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 10:55 pm |Permalink
The good thing is Pancho that this appears like the last ditch pathetic action by a team that knows that they are going down
676
Ron
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:05 pm |Permalink
Dyno
#669 re SD’s
As I said previously , if the delegate leader winner wins because he won all his delegate votes in unwinnable ‘red’ States , do you still make him the Nominee ,
because this is the Obama supporters argument ie. the delegate winner must be the Nominee fullstop. It is nonsense political reasoning
I do not agree , I think electability should be the decider when the two are only 2% of each other
677
Ferny Grover
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:06 pm |Permalink
Who would have thought, just 6 months ago, that the unstoppable juggernaut of the Clinton machine would be crippled by a virtually unknown junior senator from Illinois. What happened? It was meant to be a cakewalk! Yet here we are 6 months later and Team Clinton is behind on all counts that matter as is trying every desperate measure to stay in the race, hoping against hope that something or someone will change the trajectory.
She was the inevitable nominee at unbankable odds just 6 months ago. Inevitability is no longer hers, but his – and that says all that needs to be said about her ‘electability’.
678
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:09 pm |Permalink
Ron, the DNC charter has Primary rules for a reason. They have existed for longer than 08. They were not invented to rort Hillary. She accepted them till she was losing.
In any case, the argument is academic. You say ‘the then polls’ – which indicates an acknowledgement that Obama has picked up support since. How and why? Because of the greater publicity and recognition he has had since January. This is the rationale for big states to hold their Primaries later – so the nomination doesn’t just go to the populist candidate or the one with the biggest chequebook.
Which makes the contest and its results unfair by the rules and regulations that the DNC has developed over many years. In addition to this Obama was not on the ballot.
In my opinion, not only is your argument technically flawed – with regards to the rules – it is also ethically flawed. The long and short of it all is that those that matter in all this, the DNC, hold a position similar to mine than yours, and Hillary will not be allowed to bully her way into another pile of delegates.
679
Vote1Maxine
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:19 pm |Permalink
Evening All!
Would anyone know when the polls in Indiana & North Carolina open in our time?
When will we start getting results?
Thx
680
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:21 pm |Permalink
Vote1Maxine at 679
Its already started – over the next few hours we should see some exit polling info – and real results around mid morning our time.
681
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:23 pm |Permalink
RALEIGH – Early-bird primary voters formed a line more than 80 people deep at a polling station in a leafy neighborhood here, camping out on lawn chairs as they waited for the doors to open.
682
Pancho
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:27 pm |Permalink
With a good bit about the bogus electability trope.
For all the talk of Obama’s inability to connect to working class voters, it appears that it is white women, more than any other group that have stayed loyal to Clinton, thus preventing Obama from “closing the deal.” White women made up 47% of the electorate in Pennsylvania, and as with every other state since Iowa, they stood with Hillary by dramatic margins. Could it be that white women are voting against Obama? Perhaps. But it seems far more likely that they are voting with Hillary, the greatest chance they’ve ever had for a woman in the White House.
With Hillary out of the race, white women – especially unmarried women – are sure to line up behind Obama. The 54 million unmarried women in America are as big a portion of the Democratic base as evangelicals are to Republicans. That they would choose McCain over Obama is simply unthinkable.</
683
Vote1Maxine
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:31 pm |Permalink
Thx Catrina! Any info / intell on whats happening in Indiana?
684
Ron
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:42 pm |Permalink
Pancho
#678
your post is full of inaccuacys. Let me list the relevant pointsre MI & FL
Obama played by the DNC rules. No
a/ IN MI, Obama chose to remove his name supposedly supporting the ‘Rules’ and then deliberately flouted those rules by team obama actively campaigning to vote anti Hillary and vote “uncommitted
b/ had the ‘uncommitted’ exceeded Hillary’s vote , Obama would have claimed a victory , why else did he & his team campaign.
c/ the elections were held democratically , people freely voted 600, 000 in MI
no allegations of vote tampering but because Obama lost heavily by 15 % he now wants to support the very ‘Rules” he flouted in point a/
d/ Anyone including Obama was free to put their name on the Ballot. Obama decided to take his name OFF the ballot. Its not the voters fault he did so. You say he did because he followed the ‘rules’ (which he later flouted. He wanted his cake & eat it in case he lost
e/ In FL , unlike Hillary , Obama actually ran campaign ads. How is that consistent with your assertion Obama followed the rules
f/ In BOTH MI and FL , Obama overtly breached the DNC Rules he is now hiding behind. in both cases his breachs were to win votes in these supposedly invalid
Primarys that he & you took place
g/ it is false to suggest Hillary objected to voiding FL after the event. She did so in the weeks before.
h/ Primary results can only be taken as at when they wwere held and then Hillary won both by over 155 . The Plls taken then support that. The 2.3 million people democratically are entitled to to have their full delegates despite Obama after the result and after cheating the rules by campaigning in both saying oh lets now abide by the Rules & void the 2 Primarys
685
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:42 pm |Permalink
Vote1Maxine at 683
Nothing on my radar for the moment.
All I can recommend is to open up a box set of the Alien DVD collection. By the time you finish Alien most everyone hear will be asleep. By the time you finish Aliens there should be exit polling data. After Alien III speculation should be rampant – and by the time you have done Alien Resurrection you will be able to understand the frequent inferences to the Alien Mother here on PB and what’s more – some real information should be available.
686
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:48 pm |Permalink
Ron at 684
why else did he & his team campaign
Loaded question that is false. Obama did not campaign. There was a protest vote against Hillary Clinton leaving her name on the ballot. Getting up and going out to protest, or lying in bed knowing that the vote does not count – ummm, let me think about that for a while – nah, no need – your point just does not make any sense.
687
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:48 pm |Permalink
673
Pancho
That means that HRC is now changing her opponent from Obama to the DNC!
Great.
That’s poking the rattlesnake, and is sure to get the party people very anxious about just how divisive she’s prepared to get.
My hunch is that this will bring on the Supers more quickly to shut her down, even before all the primaries are finished.
It’s that, or watch an (un)civil war break out.
She’s on thin ice here. Very thin.
688
Catrina
Posted Tuesday, May 6, 2008 at 11:48 pm |Permalink
Ron at 684
why else did he & his team campaign
Loaded question that is false. Obama did not campaign. There was a protest vote against Hillary Clinton leaving her name on the ballot. Getting up and going out to protest, or lying in bed knowing that the vote does not count – ummm, let me think about that for a while – nah, no need – your point just does not make any sense.
689
Catrina
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:00 am |Permalink
Ron at 684
And Ron – you do remember that the disallowed primary vote was not the only thing being voted on in Florida at the time don’t you? That didn’t slip you memory did it?
690
Kirribilli Removals
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:01 am |Permalink
653
HarryH
“pick of the litter”? LOL
Someone should tell Ed Koch that littering is an offence! LOL
What a lot of Zionist garbage disguised as reasonable opinion. This guy bats for the other side for the same reason Lieberman does: they are both far-right paid up members of Likud.
And yet, after a totally failed war, the war crimes, the misery of the millions displaced, the endless drain on America’s wealth and hundreds of thousands dead, nobody ever questions these mad old J#ws about their “patriotism”!
Wake up America.
691
Enemy Combatant
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:11 am |Permalink
Harry at 620, that’s the Link of the Week. Really learnt something about Obi and his team. Geez I love the skinny on the back room stuff where the deals go down. Taken the liberty to post a few pertinent paras so that nervous nellies who are rooting for The Kid can quit it with their worry wart routines.
“An odd dynamic is at work as the primaries wind down, one that has made victory for Barack Obama all but certain, despite plummeting poll numbers. Clinton may be rising in the polls, racking up primary victories and, judging by the polls, would be a stronger challenger than Obama against John McCain. Nevertheless, Senator Obama is still gaining support among superdelegates, who likely will ultimately choose the nominee.
The Obama campaign has compiled a giant database of supporters that can be tapped by superdelegates who need help — and of course money –
Are there any indications that Barack Obama — who prides himself on being above political gamesmanship — would engage in such a strategy? (greasing SDs)
Yes. He has been doing so under the radar screen for years. The Center for Responsive Politics — a non-partisan group — has “opened a fascinating window into the world of superdelegates” in the words of this ABC News report (which notes that Hillary has also used this tactic, but that Obama — perhaps because he has more money to play with — has been sending a much larger amount of money to superdelegates).
Since 2005, Barack Obama has donated three times as much as Senator Clinton to Democratic superdelagates. The study found that the presidential candidate who gave more money to superdelegates received the endorsements 82 percent of the time. As noted in the Weekly Standard,(Bill Kristol’s PNAC pushing rag)
It is a sad statement about the Democratic Party that a few hundred superdelegates may, in essence, be casting their lot for Barack Obama in order to bolster their own campaigns.
Nevertheless, he has cast himself as a new type of politicians who eschews the old type of politics
Yet, Barack Obama earned his political spurs in Chicago (as did his campaign gurus). In the Windy City, backroom deals behind closed doors are how business is done — especially if the room has been swept for listening devices. In Chicago, “pay to play” is a political maxim and patronage is a synonym for politics. These are tools that work in the past and they seemingly will once again in the future.
Welcome to Chicago politics, writ large.”
Quid pro quo. The great American math. As Rose Mae Prizzi might have said to Charley Partanna:
“Hey, Charley….. he’s an American Super Delegate! He saw a chance to turn a buck……so he took it.
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:11 am |Permalink
David Brooks can’t help saying it: Clinton is a virago who will say and do anything because she only believes in fighting and Obama is the reasonable adult who exudes a calmness and thoughtfulness that would make America a different place.
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:13 am |Permalink
Just for reference here are the poll closing times for Indiana and North Carolina:
Indiana: 18-19:00 ET (08-09:00 AM East Coast Australia)
North Carolina: 19:30 ET (09:30 AM East Coast Australia)
Then we live through the count which should take us through the morning and probably well into the afternoon (our time).
694
Enemy Combatant
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 12:50 am |Permalink
“James Carville is well-known for spouting off his mouth without always knowing what he’s talking about. And I intend to stay focused on fighting for the American people because what they don’t need is 20 more years of performance art on television.”
– Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview on ABC News, on Carville’s recent remarks on Obama’s toughness.
(TG’s polwire)
695
Catrina
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 1:40 am |Permalink
Superdelegate update ….
The DCW have just added IL add-ons Barbara Flynn Currie and Todd Stroger for Obama. Relative to my last post as #557 this is +2 for Obama, 0 for Clinton.
And the numbers are:
Obama: 261 (254+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
This brings Clinton’s lead down to 7.5.
696
Catrina
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 4:02 am |Permalink
And the last bit of news before I disappear for the night ….
The video for “Vote Obama,” a song by Taz Arnold, a.k.a TI$A, as the debut single from Mr. Arnold’s upcoming solo album, will feature rappers Jay Z and Kanye West, Travis Barker, the Blink 182 drummer and reality show alumnus and singer Chris Brown, among others. It will be the third such high-profile music video aimed at celebrating Mr. Obama’s candidacy and stirring the senator’s younger supporters (if you don’t count Obama Girl).
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 8:45 am |Permalink
Thx Triton
At 2% counted: Clinton 61, Obama 39. Anyone know the demographics of these early results? Are they from strong Clinton districts?
701
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 8:48 am |Permalink
So far, the results from IN are in predominantly rural districts.
We need to wait for the NW of the state (Chicago suburbs) and Indianapolis to provide figures before we can really tell who’s going to win (and by how much).
Interestingly, it looks like Hillary Clinton is going to win Clinton County, Indiana…
702
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:03 am |Permalink
If they are correct, Clinton will win in IN, but narrowly (somewhere between 3-5%)
703
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:09 am |Permalink
SW #701 Did you notice that Clinton County is next door to White County?
#702 Exit polls have tended to overestimate Obama’s support in recent contests, but I’d still expect him to keep her to a single digit win.
704
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:09 am |Permalink
Morning all,
It’s a very ugly set of numbers for The Kid in Indiana at the moment. The gap is around 20 points to HRC at the moment, so I hope your exit polls are right SL.
On the other side, about a quarter of the GOP vote is NOT going to McCain. The same thing happened in PA. That must be a worry for them.
705
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:13 am |Permalink
FG – the demographics of Indiana are weird. They told us before the primary that 25% of Indiana’s population are in the Chicago suburbs in the NW corner. Then there’s Indianapoli and Fort Wayne. The latter has some figures in and is going for Obama. He’s also won Howard County – I wonder if Maxine McKew’s ben lending a hand?
706
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:15 am |Permalink
With 9% reporting, HRC has a lead of 16,321.
707
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:15 am |Permalink
Demographics of this primary are odd – 60% of primary voters are 45 and older…
708
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:18 am |Permalink
10% reporting in IN, HRC lead of 18,870. Going to be very hard to catch from here…
709
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:19 am |Permalink
No one (even Fox) isn’t going to call this race until at least either Indianapolis reports figures or the counties in the NW (Chicago suburbs) report figures.
710
Andrew
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:20 am |Permalink
With Indiana 10% counted 58/42 is not a good result for Obama, does anyone know if the particular areas so far favour Hillary
711
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:21 am |Permalink
Let me try that again:
No one (including Fox) is going to call this race until either Indianapolis or the counties in the NW report figures…
712
Andrew
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:22 am |Permalink
Lead maintained with 12% reporting. Apart from the Wright issue, I assume gas tax holiday has played well. Despite being canned by economists, this populist policy is sure to resonate, as Obama doesnt have an alternative as far as I can see
713
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:25 am |Permalink
Two more counties which, from their proximity to Indianapolis would appear to have some of that city’s overflow have now reported and have gone to Obama.
714
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:27 am |Permalink
Andrew,
From what I see, the counties reporting so far do favour HRC, in that they are mainly rural voters located in the southeast, with no reports from any counties from the north eastern Chicago sprawl, or Indianapolis. Fort Wayne (the second largest city in IN) is so far going for Obama while the rural areas are strongly going for Clinton. Boone and Putnam Counties (just outside Indianapolis) are both reporting for Obama, but still very early stages, with probably only pre-polls and very low turnout booths returning.
Interesting that the CNN exit polls didn’t show the same dominance among women for Clinton that has been seen throughout much of the primary season.
715
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:28 am |Permalink
16% IN reporting, HRC lead of 23,902
716
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:28 am |Permalink
First votes in from Marion county (Indy) – Obama up 55/45.
I don’t think that’s enough of a margin for him to win the state overall (although we don’t know which parts of Indianapolis are currently reporting).
717
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:28 am |Permalink
Voices on the ground seem confident of Clinton by 5 in IN – it is interesting that the networks have not called this as early as they did the last races. I assume this is for the reason Robert notes.
And Clinton seems to be hinting at a respectable loss in NC.
718
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:29 am |Permalink
Al – also interesting that the youth vote is at 16 – has been low teens in past few contests. Oldies numbers are lower too.
719
Darryl
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:30 am |Permalink
Was watching Seven ‘News’ this morning. They were reporting that Hillary had early lead in Indiana (this part is news) then went on to say Hillary needed to win one of the contest today to stay in the race. On what basis do that make this statement – That’s parts not news – it’s opinion.
720
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:30 am |Permalink
Oh, and the college town of Evansville is also not reporting anything at the moment either. That would probably be expected to lean Obama’s way.
721
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:30 am |Permalink
CNN projects Obama winner in NC
722
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:32 am |Permalink
NC exit polls suggests Obama win by about 10% – not a good result for HRC.
723
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:34 am |Permalink
18% IN reporting, HRC lead of 28,790
724
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:34 am |Permalink
Fox News projects Obama winner in NC
725
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:35 am |Permalink
Gawd, they’ve called NC for Obama without a vote being posted.
Meanwhile Indiana looks grim
726
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:38 am |Permalink
20% IN reporting, HRC lead of 33,784…
727
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:40 am |Permalink
Hi everyone. Yep, I was hoping for better from Indiana. Still, the Chicago suburbs are not yet reporting, but they won’t take 58-42 down to anywhere near 50-50. So it’s a win for Hillary, just hope we can get that margin down some more.
The pattern seems similar to PA – lots of rural support for Hillary, while Obama takes the main urban centres.
728
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:41 am |Permalink
A 5 point Indiana win to Hillary, coupled with a 10 point loss in NC (if the exit polls are close) should spell the end of the line for her on any rational analysis. Therefore, I fully expect her to stay in, should this be the outcome.
729
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:42 am |Permalink
CNN still not willing to call Indiana for Hillary – not sure why.
730
David Walsh
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:43 am |Permalink
It’s potentially a good sign for Obama that Indiana hasn’t been called early.
Still lots of urban votes to come in.
731
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:44 am |Permalink
I’d like to see some crossover voting numbers in IN. The exit polls on CNN show big numbers of Hillary supporters saying they will vote McCain. Some will be sulky Clintonites, but I’d wager a chunk are Limbaughers.
732
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:45 am |Permalink
I think it’s probably hasty to declare Indiana as a win for HRC already. Philadelphia with double the population had about 450k voters turnout, and assuming that the turnout %age is roughly the same for Indianapolis, a win by 15 points and a lead of 30,000 is gone. If it swings all the way that Philly did (30 points to BHO), then that’s a net gain of approximately 60,000 votes, and it will come down to the southern burbs of Chicago.
If Hillary can keep Obama to within 10 points in Indy, I think that is when the networks will start to call it.
733
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:46 am |Permalink
Results now coming in for NC.
734
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:46 am |Permalink
JV – She’s going to do far better than a 5% win in IA on these figures. If she can keep Obama to single digits in NC then she will claim that the bottom has fallen out of his campaign and that SDs should therefore smell the roses and nominate her.
735
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:47 am |Permalink
25% IN reporting, HRC lead of 39,558
736
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:49 am |Permalink
Smile – the raw numbers between them mean sfa as an indicator of the the overall vote margin or the likely delegate split. Look to the proportions, if you want to count it down.
For example, currently 57-43 with 27% counted.
737
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:51 am |Permalink
So far 66-32 Obama’s way in NC, but very early days.
738
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:51 am |Permalink
JV, the raw numbers are relevant to the gap needing to be overcome taking into account the State’s population and expected turnout (the % reporting isn’t, based upon previous instances, the % of the vote counted but the % of precincts reporting…)
739
Max
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:52 am |Permalink
Personal politics aside… I can’t believe there are people out there seriously think this gas holiday is a good idea. Economically it is pure stupidity. Both candidates should be ashamed of themselves.
/personal rant
So Obama to win NC, Clinton to win Indiana. The delegate math will remain more or less unchanged. The race will now go on until June. Who didn’t see that coming?
740
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:54 am |Permalink
Ferny wins the pessimist award for the morning so far lol.
Relax, your man is the winner.
741
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:56 am |Permalink
It appears that Indy is going to BHO by 20 points at the moment. Looks like they’re waiting on the burbs of Chicago as well as the sprawl counties around Indy of Hamilton and Hendricks to call it. Hillary did fairly well in the sprawl counties around Philly which helped her in PA a few weeks ago. I dare say she hopes to do the same here.
742
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 9:57 am |Permalink
FG – She’ll be like a rabid ferret at the SD’s if she gets an IN 10 point win and a 5 point loss in NC. But IN is a bit early to call as a 10 point win for her yet.
743
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:01 am |Permalink
Smile – I can’t see that – you’d have to know how the counties were going to vote in advance, and it is very uneven. Anyway, if it gets you through the count …
744
Max
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:02 am |Permalink
FG – She’ll be like a rabid ferret at the SD’s if she gets an IN 10 point win and a 5 point loss in NC. But IN is a bit early to call as a 10 point win for her yet.
And given the media called NC for Obama about 20 minutes after polls opened, you can safely assume he will have a decent margin there as well. It’s looking increasingly like a double digit whooping. Still early days though.
745
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:04 am |Permalink
The way CNN are talking NC is gonna be a drubbing
746
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:06 am |Permalink
NC is showing 64-34 with 4% counted.
(figures don’t add to 100 due to “no preference” option)
747
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:06 am |Permalink
HA, HarryH: Who was it that said:
“Never overestimate the intelligence of the American voter.”
But it’s now 56-44 to Hillary in IN – it’s the NARROWING!
Meanwhile in NC – Holy Crap – The Kid is going medieval!
748
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:08 am |Permalink
Indianapolis showing 61-39 Obama’s way
749
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:08 am |Permalink
If it’s as bad as that Noocat, it may hurt her in the final delegate count if in some Congressional Districts she doesn’t reach the 15% for viability.
750
Max
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:08 am |Permalink
Obama has a 50,000 vote lead in NC – 4% reporting.
Hang on… 4%? From 160,000 votes counted? That can’t be accurate.
751
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:08 am |Permalink
Obama has yet to lose a state adjoining Illinois. Bugger
752
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:09 am |Permalink
The weird thing in NC is that the order that the results are coming is the opposite to what we’ve been expecting.
Normally, it’s the rural (usually pro-Clinton) areas that come in first, before the urban areas start reporting. In NC, however, the urban areas (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro) have reported first and most of the rural areas haven’t. Hence, Obama’s current 30% lead in the count…
753
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:09 am |Permalink
NC probably includes the massive pre-poll vote at the moment, which was 41% black vote and a heap of students. Expect Obama’s margin to come down a little. Still a big narrative victory given Clinton’s attempts to spin that she ever had a chance there. And another swag of NC SDs to Obama on the way…
754
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:10 am |Permalink
The CNN panel virtually just said it’s time the Democrat Party puts Old Yella(The Clampetts) down.
It’s over. He’s won.
755
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:11 am |Permalink
The fact that the networks have already called NC for Obi is fantastic news. A call this early has meant a 10% plus win on past form. Go you good thing!
756
Enemy Combatant
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:11 am |Permalink
Mornin’ All,
Smile, check this:
From NYT live blog:” 7:47 p.m. | Hoosiers Weighing In: With 21 percent of Indiana reporting, Mrs. Clinton is leading with 57 percent to 43 percent. But the big urban centers, including Indianapolis and Gary, have yet to report, so this early read is meaningless.”
Yeah, Harry, NC result might even out Edwards, let alone the other SDs.
757
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:11 am |Permalink
Sweet, Sweet Caroline
758
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:13 am |Permalink
Check out the IN scorecard on here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, as well as some analysis. Obama running ahead of polling breakdowns which were predicting Clinton by 5. IN will tighten.
759
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:14 am |Permalink
I’m not sure it’s that clear cut yet in HC. I’d wait for some more of the western counties to come in before I got to excited.
He’ll win but I’m not sure it’s going to be as big as it’s currently showing.
760
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:15 am |Permalink
Sorry NC not HC (freudian slip)
761
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:17 am |Permalink
She’s getting into your head dogb…but I don’t reckon you’re alone there.
762
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:18 am |Permalink
Why won’t she just go away.
763
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:19 am |Permalink
42% reporting in IN – are any of the cities reporting yet?
764
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:19 am |Permalink
EC, I’m not saying that the IN vote isn’t going to get a lot closer.
765
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:19 am |Permalink
CBS calls Indiana for Clinton, but she’s outta gas again. No wonder she want’s a holiday:
“I asked Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just now whether Clinton had given or loaned her campaign more money in the run-up to North Carolina and Indiana.
“Might be. Might not be,” McAuliffe said, adding that the campaign would release more fundraising details tomorrow.
In the past, Clinton aides have denied a second Clinton loan, but McAuliffe said tonight his policy is not to talk about fundraising details.”
I asked Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just now whether Clinton had given or loaned her campaign more money in the run-up to North Carolina and Indiana.”
766
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:20 am |Permalink
Clinton’s currently winning in Evansville. That’s a good sign for her in IN.
I think the main reason why IN hasn’t been called is that none of the NW counties have reported any results…
767
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:21 am |Permalink
>42% reporting in IN – are any of the cities reporting yet?
34% of Marion (which is Indianapolis) is in, Obama 62-38
92% of Allen (which is Fort Wayne) in in, Obama 55-45
768
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:22 am |Permalink
Obama maintaining a 30% lead in NC after 11% reporting.
769
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:23 am |Permalink
Max @ 750 [Hang on… 4%? From 160,000 votes counted? That can’t be accurate.]
Max – I think the percentage might be of the precincts counted, which means nothing in terms of the percentage of votes counted, because of the variations in size.
770
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:23 am |Permalink
EC
i’m not sure about Edwards but Gore made noises this morning.
looks like Al is about to way in…and no-one thinks it will be good news for *The Clampetts.
*TM Jen
771
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:23 am |Permalink
Thanks Smile – they’re not helping with the narrowing! I guess the NW/Chicago sprawl may help.
772
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:24 am |Permalink
The problem for Clinton in NC is that she’s losing rural counties (in the east) to Obama. Considering she’s won these counties in most states, this is a really bad sign for her in NC…
773
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:26 am |Permalink
Edwards and his wife have said they WILL NOT be endorsing either candidate.
774
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:27 am |Permalink
If he can get to within 5% of her in IN while winning by 15-20% in NC, we may well see a renewed Obama MO. It will certainly change the psychology of the race.
So what will the MSN narrative be now?
775
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:27 am |Permalink
Dissapointed. Transylvania just reported 51% to HC.
I figured if anyone was going to stick a stake through her heart…
776
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:27 am |Permalink
Edwards needs to grow some
777
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:28 am |Permalink
Smile,
The two biggest counties in Indiana are Marion and Lake. A turnout of only 60,000 in Marion would be horribly disappointing for the Democratic Party. I’d expect there would have to be at least another 100,000 votes to report in that county alone. Lake County up in the North West will decide the margin I’d wager.
And as I type this up, I notice that Elkhart just came in by 18 points to BHO. Strong signs in the North for Lake County. Remember Missouri?
778
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:29 am |Permalink
But dogb – Evil is their main industry in Transylvania. Of course they’d pick Hillary. It’s close though.
779
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:29 am |Permalink
Indiana now down to 55-45, still nothing from the NW Chicago counties though.
780
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:29 am |Permalink
774 FG – “If he can get to within 5% of her in IN….”
Waiting for St Joseph to report. That might swing it back Obi’s way a little.
781
Andrew
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:30 am |Permalink
10% lead in IN with 49% reporting, down from earlier lead of 16% for Hillary. A double digit win for Hillary is still ambiguous in terms of the race, hopefully the lead narrows a bit
782
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:31 am |Permalink
31% lead to Obama in NC after 13% counted.
All pessimism evaporating.
783
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:31 am |Permalink
Indianapolis now 63 – 37 Obama’s way – that’s where a fair bit of the shift back towards Obama in Indiana is coming from.
784
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:32 am |Permalink
Huge numbers of voters in Indianapolis.
785
Jonathan
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:33 am |Permalink
54-46 now in IN after 51% reported – the gap is closing! Exciting stuff.
786
Andrew
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:33 am |Permalink
Despite the north carolina drubbing, a victory in indiana means hillary wont budge. hopefully the supers will
787
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:35 am |Permalink
More than 600,000 votes counted in Indiana and nobody is willing to call it yet.
788
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:36 am |Permalink
I note Huckabee and Paul are still getting about 20% of the vote against Macca. That can’t be a good sign for the Repugs.
789
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:38 am |Permalink
Maybe Zogby was CONSERVATIVE re NC!
Andrew, I don’t think anyone expects Hillary to budge. I do expect the narrative to change, and it becomes very hard to sell an ‘electability’ story when you’ve just been thumped by 20 points in NC.
790
Jonathan
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:41 am |Permalink
Has CNN called it for Clinton on TV yet?
791
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:42 am |Permalink
FG – Thought they might get their groove back here.
792
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:43 am |Permalink
The demographics of the two states are quite different. The rural parts of NC near the coast are the old plantation areas and have big black populations. The rural areas in the extreme west are Appalachian and have bugger all blacks. The cities in NC will go for Obama on a combination of educated whites and blacks. His massive majorities in some counties in NC probably reflect the big concentrations of rural blacks.
In Indiana, by contast, there are no rural blacks – so it’s a straight city country divide. The reason no-one’s calling it for Clinton yet is because until the Chicago suburbs report it’s a bit like calling a Victorian election without the
Melbourne results. The fact that it’s down to single digits on the strenght of Indianapolis and Fort Wayne alone indicates that she won’t win it by very much. I expect NC to tighten a bit as well as the Hillbilly vote trickles in. Speaking of which, Hillary is ahead in Transylvania County; why am I not surprised?
793
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:44 am |Permalink
Re Indiana – If those other North-West counties are similar to Elkhart then Obama has more coming his way up there; also only 54% of Marion (Indianapolis) precincts reporting, and 5% of Hamilton county next to it, which is showing a same BHO margin (63-37). This doesn’t appear to be over yet in Indiana.
794
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:46 am |Permalink
JV – they’re glorified Chicago suburbs. Of course he’ll win them. I’ve just had an idea for a play: “Waiting for Gary”.
795
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:47 am |Permalink
St Joseph (South Bend) is a university town. I’m expecting it to go Obi’s way big time.
796
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:48 am |Permalink
RB – While the process has been torturous, I reckon Gary might show up. This could get to within 3 looking at present numbers.
797
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:49 am |Permalink
I bet Dean is roaring! This looks great.
798
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:50 am |Permalink
fivethirtyeight is projecting a HRC win in Indiana by 3.6%.
That’s far too close for comfort for her (considering people thought it a possibility that she could win in IN by double digits).
Could this be the end for HRC (and my money on her at Sportingbet)???
799
Diogenes
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:51 am |Permalink
One great thing about a small win for Hillary in Indiana and a huge win for Obama is that we can finally put to bed all that convoluted drivel about Billary winning the popular vote.
800
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:51 am |Permalink
N Carolina – different stroy -if you scan over those NWest counties there are some big %’s for HRC with not many precincts in – I’d expect a big narrowing in NC from here – hopefully not below 10 points though.
801
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:52 am |Permalink
3.6 sounds a little pessimistic to me – but I think you’ve done your dough anyway SL.
802
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:54 am |Permalink
St Joseph pretty close, 53-47.
803
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:56 am |Permalink
I was hoping it would go bigger than that.
804
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:57 am |Permalink
Overall now the same. Getting closer.
805
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:57 am |Permalink
JV#799 The narrowing will be lessened by the small numbers – there ain’t legions of Hillbillies in them thar hills, they’re RURAL.
806
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:57 am |Permalink
Sorry, in reverse of course.
807
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:58 am |Permalink
Porter County in NW Indiana coming in – HRC up 58/42. Seems a little counterintuitive…
808
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:58 am |Permalink
Narrowing everywhere.
IN down to 53-47 after 65% counted
NC down to 62-36 after 21%
809
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:59 am |Permalink
“Harold Ford says Clinton should drop out.” from DKos
810
Enemy Combatant
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 10:59 am |Permalink
Swing low chariot come down easy
Taxi to the terminal zone
Cut your engines and cool your wings
And let me make it to the telephone.
Tally room, give me Gary, Indiana
Are the voters still standin’ in line?
Tell the folks back home this is the promised land
Callin’ and the po boy is on the line.
(chuck berry)
811
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:00 am |Permalink
There is a distinctly different tone amongst the panels on CNN tonight than the last month or so.
This thing is coming to a close. Things could happen very rapidly in the next week.
If Gore speaks in the next day or two it will be wrapped up soon. Tonights results are the circuit breaker that was needed to give this race to the winner (Obama) and start applying the blowtorch to their 72yo opponent.
812
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:00 am |Permalink
RB – Obama has a 16 point buffer before he drops below 10 in NC anyway, so he can throw Hillary a few minnow states just to make her feel better.
813
Jonathan
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:01 am |Permalink
For a second there I read that as Harrison Ford and got really excited.
814
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:01 am |Permalink
Actually, NC could get worse for Clinton – Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has 0% reporting, but is currently going to Obama 73/27…
815
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:02 am |Permalink
That can’t be right, how big is Charlotte?
816
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:04 am |Permalink
Wiki says over 600,00. So it probably is right.
817
Jonathan
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:05 am |Permalink
The Indianapolis Star site has the race at 53.2 – 46.8 now
818
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:05 am |Permalink
I wonder on why basis CBS has called Indiana, but no other network has. Maybe the CBS exit polls were different to those collated by other networks…
819
jaundiced view
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:05 am |Permalink
Look at that Indiana county map on CNN – I can see Hillary’s next ploy – she is more electable because she won more counties, and the delegates should be divided up on the proportion of counties won.
820
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:07 am |Permalink
Unexpected result of the night:
Huckabee wins Caldwell County, NC with 66% of the vote (37% of precincts reporting)
821
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:09 am |Permalink
Oh boy – St Josephs coming in ahead of Obama predictions. IN is in play!
822
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:11 am |Permalink
What odds a dead heat in IN?
823
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:11 am |Permalink
#821 What was his prediction?
Counting seems to have slowed.
824
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:12 am |Permalink
Damn – Huckabee doesn’t win in Caldwell County, NC. Seems like CNN had their figures around the wrong way…
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:12 am |Permalink
Obama addresses crowd to the tune of Springsteens “The Rising”
826
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:14 am |Permalink
“Update: Per the exit polls, the undecided vote split in North Carolina, 49C-48O, while Clinton won it 3-2 in Indiana.
Update: Woah — MSNBC just changed Indiana from “Too Early To Call” to “Too Close To Call”.” DKos
827
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:17 am |Permalink
One question re this electability issue.
Based on the polling, Clinton is ahead of McCain on the delegate count.
Based on the polling, Obama and McCain are pretty much level pegging.
If we ignore Florida and Ohio, the states in which Obama threatens McCain are South Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana and Nebraska.
Again ignoring Florida and Ohio, the states in which Clinton threatens McCain are New Mexico, Kentucky and Indiana.
There is about a five delegate difference there, enough to win Obama the presidency but given Clinton has to lose states that she already is ahead in in order to not win the presidency, I cannot see how Obama is more electable than Clinton.
I know people were talking about Texas previously. However, that was based on polling from February. The most recent polls put McCain ahead of Obama by five per cent in Texas.
Further, on states in which McCain is close to Obama, we have Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn – 57 delegates worth.
On states in which McCain is close to Obama, we have Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Missouri and Conneticut – 47 delegates worth.
So, can someone lay the argument down as to how McCain is vulnerable to Obama in a way that he is not vulnerable to Clinton? Which states are people talking about?
As far as I can see, this presidential election will be decided in Florida and Ohio. If Obama does not win one of those, he will not win the election. And he could lose both. On current polling, Clinton will win both of those easily.
Oh, and congratulations to Obama for winning North Carolina, and to Clinton for winning Indiana. This pretty much sets the seal on things, I think.
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:20 am |Permalink
Obama’s speech sounds and looks like he knows he has the nomination all sown up
829
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:22 am |Permalink
“Oh, and congratulations to Obama for winning North Carolina, and to Clinton for winning Indiana. This pretty much sets the seal on things, I think.”
You and CBS are pretty brave David! Have a look at the barely GOP states on electoral-vote.com. McCain is speading his resources pretty thin against Obama. See the recent House result in MI for why. Further, Clinton can’t beat Obama in an election. Ergo, she is not more electable.
830
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:23 am |Permalink
The problem for HRC is that her margin of victory in IN (if she wins) is going to be so small and Obama’s margin of victory in NC is going to be so large that she’s going to lose any momentum she had picked up in the last couple of weeks.
It is unlikely now that she would win Oregon (the next key state) and I would expect the flow of SDs to keep moving away from her now.
That said, she may make Oregon her “do or die” state if she wins IN. After all, she is expected to record big victories in the next couple of primaries (WV and KY).
831
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:23 am |Permalink
David I think it’s best just to say that any three way polling is suspect at best and the true picture won’t appear until we have a nominee.
832
Enemy Combatant
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:24 am |Permalink
The Kid has picked up a cool 100 Large in the popular vote so far in both states.
833
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:25 am |Permalink
Obama was 50,000 behind at 68%, now 47,000 behind at 70%. How likely is Hendricks (still 0% reporting) to go the way of Marion next door? If it does there’s 40,000 more for Obama right there.
834
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:25 am |Permalink
71% IN reporting, HRC by 41,468 – this could get close!!!
835
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:25 am |Permalink
% Margin will come down in NC, but it will be a cool 200K votes. Enough to put an end to the children trying to change thr rules vis-a-vis popular vote.
836
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:26 am |Permalink
Indiana now down to 52-48
837
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:26 am |Permalink
Smile – is a virtual tie in IN (given crossover voting) sealing the deal?
838
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:27 am |Permalink
Hendricks county in (12%) – HRC up 57/43
839
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:28 am |Permalink
I’d say (by my own personal standards) if Obama holds Clinton to a 5% or less win in IN then she will be gone very shortly.
840
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:29 am |Permalink
Obama’s lead in NC down to 18% (58-40) with 43% reporting
Hillary’s lead in In now at 4% (52-48) with 72% reporting
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:30 am |Permalink
Obama:”We will end [the gridlock] by telling The Truth”
heh.. up yours Hillary..
ouch.
842
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:30 am |Permalink
73% IN reporting, HRC out to lead of 43,075
843
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:33 am |Permalink
Down to a 16% lead in NC and falling. Any more large centres to come in?
844
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:33 am |Permalink
Lake and Hendricks Counties could effectively decide the nomination today. Obama’s numbers in Indy are a lot bigger than I first expected. He could take another 10k into that lead from Marion, 5k from Hendricks and Hamilton, meaning he’d need another 25k from Lake. If the turnout %age is similar for Lake as in St Joesph, then he would need a 20 point win in Lake. If Hillary keeps him to 10 points in Lake or less she should be safe.
845
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:33 am |Permalink
POssum – with a hat tip to Colbert?
846
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:34 am |Permalink
FG @ 843,
Mecklensburg county (Charlotte) is only at 17% and Obama is leading 70/30…
847
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:36 am |Permalink
Al @ 844,
Slight problem – Hendricks County is currently going for HRC by 14%.
I think the key counties left in IN are Hamilton (only 35% reporting), Lake (0%) and to a lesser extent, Laporte (0%).
848
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:36 am |Permalink
What a ride!
849
Noocat
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:36 am |Permalink
846
Plus, a number of eastern counties still yet to report. So far, nearly all of nearly all of those that have reported have gone Obama’s way by a large margin.
850
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:37 am |Permalink
Pancho,
What is in play in an Obama v Clinton race is very different than an Obama v McCain or a Clinton v McCain race. The candidates are – obviously – different. The voters involved are different.
I will check out electoral-vote.com.
dogb
It could well be that three-way polling is suspect. However, that is all the data that we have to go on. As such, if we are talking about electability and we wish to use data to back up our arguments, that is where we go. As such, I would like to see what it is that the Obama supporters who are arguing that he is more electable than her are using to back up their arguments.
851
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:38 am |Permalink
That should clinch it for her. A small victory but a clear one.
852
Triton
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:39 am |Permalink
Hillary’s lead in IN now down to 38,000.
853
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:39 am |Permalink
74% IN reporting, HRC lead down to 37,708…
854
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:40 am |Permalink
David, we also have a Primary system that the Dems have developed over decades to give them a nominee.
And a good point was made the other day. Clinton’s numbers at present are coming from white women (not the working class, contrary to media representation). These people are to the Dems what evangelicals are to the Reps. There is no way the will vote for the war-cadaver over Obama.
855
Al
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:40 am |Permalink
From Wiki, interesting demographic African-American split between Porter and Lake Counties: Porter County has an African-American population of 0.92%, Lake County 25.33%. Marion County (Indy) has an African-American population of 24%.
SL:
Look at the raw numbers in Hendricks, only 2800 votes counted out of a county with a population of 100,000. Those numbers are not too useful, and probably from the rural precincts located away from the sprawl.
856
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:40 am |Permalink
Um, electoral-vote is actually where I am getting my data from. Based on that data, Clinton is simply more electable than Obama in a general election.
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:41 am |Permalink
David I suspect those Obama supporters who claim he is more electable than HC are doing so because he’s pretty much just beat her….in an election.
858
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:41 am |Permalink
Margin in NC down to 14% – still, there’s a lot of eastern counties left to report (plus Charlotte)
859
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:42 am |Permalink
Pancho,
I very much disagree with you about the working class. The same polling that is showing us white women is also showing us working class. Or do you have a source that demonstrates otherwise?
860
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:43 am |Permalink
David – Check ‘barely GOP’ numbers on each map. These are states in play as soon as the 3-way polling goes. Obama’s looking fine.
861
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:44 am |Permalink
dogb,
I have already addressed that point. Obama beating Clinton in a Democratic primary race is a very different thing than Obama beating McCain in a presidential race. It is apples and oranges.
862
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:45 am |Permalink
9:12 p.m. | Obama Smiles: Mr. Obama is speaking. He looks happy, for the first time in a long time. “Thank you, North Carolina. I love you too.”
A bank of white people, most of them middle-aged women, who have generally been in Mrs. Clinton’s corner, are lined up behind Mr. Obama in the tight TV shot (not an Abercrombie T-shirt among them).
He congratulates Mrs. Clinton on “what appears to be her victory” in Indiana. (He must know something that the results aren’t showing us at this point, unless he’s lowering expectations for himself.)
In North Carolina, Mr. Obama claims victory in a big state, a swing state, a state where, he says, the Democrats will compete if he is the nominee. He seems to be tasting victory. He notes that he is less than 200 delegates away from winning the nomination and gives Mrs. Clinton something of a valedictory.
Yes there have been bruised feelings
863
Swing Lowe
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:45 am |Permalink
Hendricks county is only 1.1% African-American. It’s mainly white and suburban. it probably votes GOP in general elections (although I can’t confirm that). Overall, it doesn’t surprise me much that HRC is leading there currently…
864
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:45 am |Permalink
Yes there have been bruised feelings on both sides, he says, but promises party unity in the fall.
865
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:45 am |Permalink
Pancho,
I listed the ‘barely GOP’ states for Obama in my other post. There is a five-delegate advantage to Obama over Clinton there if we ignore Ohio and Florida.
If we include Ohio and Flordia, Clinton already has them in the bag. Obama would have to fight for them.
866
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:45 am |Permalink
David,
Sure but unless you accept the three cornered polling as accurate (and I don’t) what other standard do we have to measure them against each other.
867
Robert Bollard
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:46 am |Permalink
4% and narrowing. I wish I could stay to watch. But I must be off to introduce a bunch of undergraduate would-be PE teachers to the Spanish Civil War. Wish me luck! Non Pasaran!
868
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:46 am |Permalink
It looked like an acceptance speech to me. Very good one, too.
869
Ferny Grover
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:46 am |Permalink
Obama’s lead down to 14%. Bugger
870
David Gould
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:47 am |Permalink
dogb,
I would suggest that if you do not accept the three-cornered polling as accurate then you cannot make a case either way, as you suggested.
871
Pancho
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:47 am |Permalink
Well David, I guess it’s all academic, cos the Democratic Party and voters don;t seem to agree with this well worn line of argument. And I guess we’ll only ultimately know in November if you’re right when Obama does face up against McCain.
872
Smile
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:48 am |Permalink
76% IN reporting, HRC lead down to 35,378…
873
HarryH
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:48 am |Permalink
lol Ferny
10% will be just fine
relax
874
dogb
Posted Wednesday, May 7, 2008 at 11:49 am |Permalink
869
Ferny Grover Says: Obama’s lead down to 14%. Bugger
I suspect if you’d offered him NC by 14% and a 4% loss in IN yesterday he would have taken it FG.
1,359 Comments
Back from the taxi run to find on the last thread some more interst comments
FERNY
#684 last line
After you reading Catrina #819 and Kirri #814 who are your colleagues from whom I assume you are unwilling to distance yourself , I have now the option
of using their model to other blogers seeing its condoned , since conviction is not an issue but standards were made an issue
Kirri
#809
“The Rev freakin’ Wright is not Barack Obama, and is as unlike him as anyone you could imagine. Wright shows what Obama is NOT,..’
Ron says: this is Kirri back peddling ,”distancing” himself from his previous Pastor
remarks. Kirri is now (mark/K1) ‘disowning’ the Pastor whose NOW unlike Obama
When a new thread starts, just for appearance’s sake, can we please make an effort to leave comments which are … you know, interesting? Of conceivable interest to newcomers, and not just feeding back into the closed loop of the previous thread? Thank you for your cooperation.
“David Plouffe, the manager of Mr. Obama’s campaign, said that if Mrs. Clinton won 55 percent of the remaining pledged delegates — an assumption he called “overly generous” — she would still need about two-thirds of the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to reach the 2,025 delegates needed to secure the nomination.
Mrs. Clinton’s advisers did not dispute Mr. Plouffe’s calculation, in effect acknowledging the enormousness of their task.”
On topic (and bless you William!)
an excellent article for anyone interested in the feminist/race tension in this contest. And why Hillary has done little for the cause of women.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/betsyreed
Bravo William @ 2
For a while there i thought you were competing with John Edwards and Al Gore for going missing when your constituents were pleading for intervention.
humour intended.
Buenos dios, habitues, and William too, where in the Kingdom of Bludge (short trumpet fanfare) your request is our command.
———————————
He looked into her eyes across his busy network desk, a pulse of negative energy crackled and shimmied the periphery of his “event horizon”, the red light was on, the cameras rolling……………it was precisely at this moment that their worlds collided.
“You’re like I am, and I hate to say that.” — Bill O’Reilly, to Hillary Clinton.
Wow EC @ 6 Hillary sleeps with enemy in a last-ditch neocon-Clinton push for the nomination. What a surprise. Surely she realises why they are supporting her- they think McCain has more chance of beating her.
Shame about the maths
That’s part of it, Andrew. McBombster and Brutusina are also Beltway house-trained and so either is infinitly more desirable to the WHIG/PNAC/Neocon/MIC/MSM cabal, than a guy whose ass ain’t owned.
In the traditional American sense of the meaning.
DNC Member and superdelegate Jaime A. Gonzalez Jr. lines up for Hillary Clinton bringing her lead to 23.
I thought Bill O’Reilly summed it up quite well when he said to Hillary that her policies were almost identical to Obama’s and that the main difference between them was personality. He then pointed out that Obi was really nice and likeable and that Hill was basically a divisive bitc*.
Another Bosnia moment before the Indiana vote?
“a memo from Evan Bayh has surfaced in which Bayh blames the Clinton’s for the closing of the Magnequench plant in Vapraiso, Indiana, and this memo is due to hit the presses tomorrow”.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/19192/52275/502/508000
William
Hugely entertaining video clip on this thread, tip of the hat.
And, thanks for your edict at the top of this thread, we are beholden.
hate to be really dumb but who is Bill O’Reilly?
A Fox anchor, famous for saying outrageous and offensve things. Colbert’s character is a take-off of him. Some of his hits here: http://mediamatters.org/items/200709210007
Thanks Pancho!
10
Diogenes
And Ecky:
There’s a parallel in nature, (as if Clinton resides beyond the natural domain!) that perfectly demonstrates Hillary’s behaviour: the Golden Orb Spider.
But the genders are reversed: Hillary is the tiny male spider and O’Reilly is the female spider.
The big fat female spider spins a huge web and sits in the middle waiting for its prey to fly in. She then leaves the carcasses hanging (after draining their bodies of nutrient) wrapped as trophies for prospective males to see what a good provider she is.
The very much smaller and weaker male hangs around on the periphery waiting, attracted by the food she ostentatiously displays, all the while risking everything for his chance to mate with a creature that if he isn’t extremely careful will devour him.
So there’s little Hillary, drawn to the power, driven by her lust for power to the heart of the Fox web, where if she’s lucky she gets to procreate her message, but it might all backfire, and O’Reilly could just as easily rip off her head and suck out the juices.
Isn’t nature wonderful?
Kirri
#12
I can understand the site manager not wanting “newcomers to first see your
rambliing nonsense argument first I quoted.
You’ve hurt the sites credibility ,
but not yours as you try to sneakily ‘disown ‘ the pastor hoping no one notices
Then we had the echo , HarryH to demonstrate his are just as foolishly based
Morning all.
Anyone prepared to make a guess on Tuesday’s outcome?
And on what will happen next?
I’m guessing the narrative will continue to swing Clinton’s way. She will win Indiana by around 5% and Obama will pick up NC by 5-6. The belief that Hinton’s PA delegate advantage would be erased by NC has been all but erased in the last week.
Even so, the delegate maths won’t change much but the result will mean we’ll all be staying on this ride into June.
Clinton’s triumphs will probably see the MSM spotlight return to her – cos they do love to trash the triumphant – particularly when the winner is something of a triumphalist!
Watch these two guys: Don Cazayoux and Travis Childers.
Here’s why:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/02/us/politics/02web-hulse.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1209777000-xp+Q44dnyt4UoyIADFUsUw
…special House elections and the Republicans are going all out to tie both Democrats to Obama.
This should be interesting.
From the Votemaster:
In a special election in LA-06, it looks like Democrats are poised to take a heavily Republican seat as Don Cazayoux (D) is leading Woody Jenkins (R) 50% to 41% according to a new SurveyUSA poll. The election is tomorrow.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
17
Ron
“rambling nonsense”?
Really? Coming from you Ron, that’s hysterically funny.
Now, off to read some polls.
(No further correspondence on this, OR ANY OTHER SUBJECT will be entered into!)
#18 Hinton should be Clinton
19 Kirribilli Removals. Snap. A coincidence.
20
Chris B
read the article in the NYT I quoted above your post.
It’s interesting that neither candidate has tried to cut loose from Obama.
It’s also interesting that the Republican adverts do not even mention Hillary.
Here’s a good take on the maths, contest by contest: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/2/20111/46760/475/508035
In a nice twist on the runaway narrative, the writer lays out Clinton’s non-existent path to the nomination.
The electoral-vote take is that ‘Suppose Obama wins 55% of North Carolina’s 115 pledged delegates for a total of 63 and Clinton wins 55% of Indiana’s pledged delegates for a total of 40. Then Clinton will have 1636 and Obama will have 1796 with 615 left to go. Then as of Wednesday, Obama will need 228/615 = 37% of the rest and Clinton will need 388/615 = 63%.’
And Chris B@20, a Don Cazayoux win would be one more SD for Obama.
22
Ferny Grover
That’s OK, we get it. Hillary Clinton is Hinton. (named in honour of the great mountaineer, Sir Edmund Hinton?)
1968. “Yes, of course he has the stuff to go all the way,” John J. Lindsay replied. “But he’s not going to go all the way. The reason is that somebody is going to shoot him. I know it and you know it. Just as sure as we’re sitting here somebody is going to shoot him. He’s out there now waiting for him And, please God, I don’t think we’ll have a country after it.”
There was a stunned silence. Then, one by one, the other reporters agreed. But none asked the most heartbreaking question: Did Kennedy himself know it?”
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2008/06/rfk_excerpt200806
“Hello darkness, my old friend,
I’ve come to talk with you again,
Because a vision softly creeping,
Left it’s seeds while I was sleeping,
And the vision that was planted in my brain
Still remains
Within the sound of silence.
In restless dreams I walked alone
Narrow streets of cobblestone,
’neath the halo of a street lamp,
I turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence. “
S & G.
Always best to bear in mind that Obi’s enemies are playing for keeps.
Ecky, you’ve been beating this slow drum, a funereal tattoo, for some time, and it’s probably good that you keep us reminded of what a violent, racist, and vile underbelly lies not much below the surface in US politics.
It was depressing watch Gore last night on LL, he seemed resigned to Hillary, unsure if Obama could do it, and pessimistically sure that the USA was all but sunk. His lament that the Republic is lost was mournful, not angry, just the hopeless realisation that it has been dumbed down to the level of that yapping little whelp Bush, sold down the river to endless war for the Haliburtons et al, and was being herded with the cattle prod of fear into an Orwellian nightmare of its own making.
Gore’s Olympian view of the sweep of US history has a soundtrack, it’s your drumbeat Ecky:
Tombeau pour America
OH, that’s Gore Vidal in the above post, not Big Al! LOL
“The very much smaller and weaker male hangs around on the periphery waiting, attracted by the food she ostentatiously displays, all the while risking everything for his chance to mate with a creature that if he isn’t extremely careful will devour him.”
Good heavens, Kirri, we’ll simply never be able to get our heads around the line, “eat me, b*tch!”, ever again! Otoh, your example goes a long way to help explain the meaning of the term, “c*nt-struck”.
Opps, sorry at 30, ’twas the “i” in bee-arch wot done it.
30
Enemy Combatant
The natural world offers a veritable feast of metaphors for human behaviour Ecky, and sometimes they are more telling that all the gossip pages put together.
In this case, Hillary was putting herself into the maw of the Fox, or like a little cleaner fish, into the jaws of the shark for some mutual benefit.
Symbiosis or dalliance, take your pick, but in her case, the risk was always that she’d get hurt, even in the smaller sense of her supporters going “huh?”.
Morphing into a b!tch of the Rightwing press is not an appealing look.
Pancho
325
see you still quoting the biasely pro Obama Dailykosto to support your foolish math based arguments for Obama. Of course you could quote thirtyeight site maths , but then he openly says on his site he is for Obama doesn’t he
(oh , and he also contributes his pro Obama nonsense to Dailykos as you know)
sad.
this seems to cement it for Obama. Bloody maths, huh?
http://www.slate.com/id/2190556/
A site for the Guam Primary results.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/guam-primary-results-and-la-01la-06.html
By chance they are in the same time zone as AEST which means we should start getting results from 8:00pm tonight AEST.
EC # 6 and DIOGENES #10
Your loathing for Hillary causes you both not listen to Hillary’s words speaking.
On THIS occasion you may look at her words without the loathing.
There were only 4 issues discussed between O’Reilly vs Hillary. (all domestic)
1/ Oil Companys. Hillary will put a supertax on them.. Obama will not
2/Tax Rates. Hillary will increase rich rates & lower all others rates. Obama won’t
3/ Healthcare.Hillary will cover all under/uninsured universally.Obama’s plan wo’nt
4/ Bush/Cheney Conservation & Energy Bill. Hillary voted NO..Obama voted YES
Hillary & Obama do disagree on these 4 domestic issues
Let me know which of the above 4/ issues you disagree with Hillary on ??
ps/
(The smiling assassin neocon O’Reilly kept sating Hillary above policys wee socialist which you’d expect from a neocon. I did not expect you 2 to agree with Bill O’Reilly.
You 2 may have plenty of valid proofs for loathing Hillary , but not on this occasion)
Labor policy supports ALL 4 Hillary policys. (with Healthcare even stronger)
It’s a slow news Saturday, so let’s unmask yet another of the “Get Obi” lynch mob, shall we? Today’s Pitchfork & Flame carrier, Bludgers, is Carl P. Leubsdorf. Carl’s link is featured prominently in today’s “must click-ons” on today’s RCP Homepage, a source quoted by many a Bludger, sometimes with a great deal of conviction.
“Obama’s Running Out the Clock – Carl Leubsdorf, Dallas Morning News” http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_intent_on_running_out_th.html
Away from the hustle and bustle of busy, work-a-day media life, guess who Carl Baby’s special two bestest buddies are? Well blow me down if it ain’t Davey “The Schnorer” Broder, and His Highness the Lord of Darkness, Novakula himself.
David Broder is seen by many as a supporter of George W. Bush political adviser Karl Rove. (wiki)
Bob Novak is a PNAC War-Shill and all-purpose GOPper dogsbody. He and Judith Miller (former NYT Ace-Stenographer) outted Ambassador Joe Wilson’s wife, Valery Plame, as a CIA Senior Field Agent in the NYTs couple of years back. Joey “Honest As The Day’s Long” Wilson had stated in a prior NYT Op-Ed that he was pissed that BushCo and the WHIGs had mendaciously insisted that Niger was schlepping weapons grade yellowcake uranium to Axis of Evil charter member, Saddam Hussein. (ecki)
Bush had claimed that The Evil One’s nookular scientists were converting the stuff into “weapons grade” faster than a bunch of project n*ggers could cook up a batch of crystal meth!
All concerned in the original Big Lie, that the former Ba’athist strongman was hoarding nukular WMDs, have subsequently withdrawn from that position.
Except Richard Perle. But we’ll deal with him on a more appropriate occassion.
Don’t thank me, KR – thank Andrew Bolt. I know you want to.
#35 Jen Says: [this seems to cement it for Obama. Bloody maths, huh?] – not so fast ms. Jen.
How often we watch a football match where one team is leading, playing well or very well, but it just cannot put the other team away. we all have the nagging feeling that then other team is going to win and often they did winning the match in the last few minutes. This Hillary Vs Obama match has that feeling all over.
“Obama Intent on Running Out the Clock”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_intent_on_running_out_th.html
And this is not a strategy of a leader with ticker.
ps: i notice the Obamabots Mutual Admiration and Idolizing society had been in full swing in the last couple of days.
It ’s time to reprise The Great Presidential Race. If you haven’t watched it, the metaphor has a continuing life.
Hillary’s predicted demise is a bit like the US recession, the numbers don’t quite stack up yet.
Finns-
i am simply going on what the psephs are saying about the numbers required for Mrs Bill to pull it off. Of course it is possible, as stated, that if some unforseen catastrophe occurs for Obama (and Wright isn’t it) , that she could get the unprecendented and unlikely swings required, but we’re looking at probablities here, not fortune telling.
Re Obama supporteres out in force- statistaically there are going to be more of us than you guys on a site that attracts a majority of centrist or left voters. It’s the conservatives in the minority – and Hillary represents conservative politics.
Ron @ 37
I’ve actually seldom disagreed with the fundamentals of Hillary’s policies, although I think she has disgraced herself with the “petrol tax holiday” fiasco. There are a few differences between her and Obi but not enough to matter much to me, especially as I live in Australia.
It’s Hillary who is the problem, not her policies.
This sums it up;
“Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool. Anyone who thinks they have principles is deluded. Anyone who thinks they give a damn about the Democratic Party is hopelessly lost. Hell, by 1996 – after they had led the party over the cliff in 1994 – it was already completely overt, and Clinton followed the advice of the switch-hitting, prostitute-impressing and appropriately named political guru Dick Morris to pursue a strategy of triangulation. In other words, running against your own party in Congress. What more evidence does anyone need?”
41 Finns
At the end of an American football game, the team that’s behind usually gets one chance with the ball. The quarterback buys enough time to allow the wide receiver to reach the end zone and tosses a high ball in, hoping the receiver catches it for a touch-down. It’s called a “Hail Mary”. Hill’s buying some time and hoping to lob a “Hail Mary” in to a clique of SDs.
Hi Diogs- who’s quote is that about the Clampetts?
Sounding silly Ron. Play the ball, not the man. If you have a response to any of the maths and pathways I have linked from DK, 538 or electoral-vote above, I’d love to hear them. I’m not holding my breath though, because, we both know, none exist.
And there’s a good point, Jen. At what point does a professing ‘left’ candidate move sufficiently to the right to cross the mythical central line and become right-wing???
In reality, the left/right descriptor is virtually redundant as both mainstream sides of politics fight over the middle ground. Sure, you will have some pollies with a stronger emphasis on social policy than others, but all agree these days that economics is the ‘main game’. The old Left has lost that battle, sadly. On the other hand, old Right-wingers used to pathologically believe in small government. These days Government of whatever stripe is getting bigger and bigger and its incursions into the lives of its citizens greater and greater. The Left may have won this battle, but the outcome is not what they would have wanted. Liberalism (the philosophy, not the Party) was a foundation of modern democracy, but is today on the wane as we enter the age of the Nanny/Protector State. We all thought that freedom and civil rights would be bolstered by the free flow of communication. The reality we now face is that never before have we had greater access to information, yet less ability to critically analyse it. For many, information is packaged and disseminated by a press that is anything but free, held captive by a small number of Murdoch clones who are themselves propogandists of Conservatism.
When it comes to US politics, I haven’t seen anyone yet who isn’t right of centre on most economic and social issues – including Obama. It’s all a matter of degree. FDR may have come close with his Keynsian platform, but it was to manage a crisis at the time – and he was hardly a socialist. They all tend to be socially conservative, card carrying members of the Christian Establishment. Unlike the ALP, the Dems don’t have formal factions, though like any organisation you will find folk gathering around certain ideas and the personalities who champion them.
I understand the argument that it’s necessary to be centre-right to get elected, but surely it’s daft to ascribe ‘left-wing’ to someone whose policy platform and/or public statements is anything but – regardless of their Party membership.
Off topic but… Possums back
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
This is a story that was just waiting to break.
Carl Bernstein-Gate!
Brutusina’s biographer, Carl Bernstein, applies the blowtorch to her belly as he shows her at her canniving worst. If the math doesn’t do it for her, then she’ll get into anything, including the gutter. For those who came in late, Carl Bernstein and his buddy, “Tumbledown” Bobby Woodward deep-throated their way into the jounalistic limelight as “The Original Watergaters”. Carl and Bobby were instrumental in GOP heavies finally making President Tricky Dicky an offer he couldn’t refuse.
“Take the chopper ride from the lawn, Richard, or you’ll be knee-capped in front of the nation in primetime!”
Tricky picked up on their nuance, like the seasoned old trouper that he was.
The D.C. pub, The Watergate, has been charging way over “industry best practice” ever since. Pilgrims and geeks cop it in the keester rates-wise. Naturally, in a culture obsessed with hierarchy, special rates apply for Beltway Insiders and national celebrities.
Over the last decade, the joint has turned into a regular Political FrontierLand*.
You know…… “tall-tales and true….. from the legendary past,…..BOOM, boom, boom, boom, BOOM, boom, boom, boom,,,, aaahh-woo-woo-wooo-woo….”.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/carl-bernstein/the-shame-of-hillary-clin_b_99912.html
*A subsidiary of the Disney franchise. Trade inquiries welcome.
Diogenes
#44
Thanks for your frankness , again
Full Quote: “”I’ve actually seldom disagreed with the fundamentals of Hillary’s policies, although I think she has disgraced herself with the “petrol tax holiday” fiasco. There are a few differences between her and Obi but not enough to matter much to me, especially as I live in Australia”…. then somone’s quote
3 points you make plus the quote persons point.
First point, the 4 Hillary policys I listed in #37 are the real 4 domestic policy differences between Hillary & Obama (importance later). The fact you seldom have fundamental differences to Hillary’s policys is what a frank objective Labor supporter would think.
3rd point
Agree the differences do not appear as important as we’re living in ‘oz’.
However my view was/is from American-ecentric re the effect of Hillarys domestic policys that Obama disagrees with.
The US middle/lower classes will think its important & benefical to get tax cuts at the expense of the rich.
US familys will benefit directly (45million presently uninsured & about another 25 million under-insured) from having healthcare insurance so they can go to see a doctor as millions presently cann’t.
US familys will see the benefit of a Oil Company supertax to fund equity distribution & fund alternative non coal usage. I can see a US family liking these Labor based ideas and if we lived there we may also.
2nd point, “petrol tax holiday”. Its a match to McCain’s political stunt as a stunt
Its separate to her legislative & regulation based Oil Company supertax policy
which is sound for equity & conservation. The ‘petrol holiday’ was to attract
swinging voters 2 register & support her in future Primarys & is I agree a politics based stunt and may pick up a few
The quote you listed. Putting my head out here. Dick Morris would think he invented “triangulation” but he didn’t. Hawke did it against State ALP governments to get re-elected. Fraser did the same against State Liberal governments to get re-elected. Rudd clearly ‘distanced’ himself from the unpopular NSW ALP & Yemma. Rudd in reality ‘bagged’ Beattie’s Council amalgamations whilst cleverly capitalising on his otherwise popularity. Its a standard political strategy to offset the reverse tactic the other ide will throw up (Howard’s) ‘wall to wall Labor Governments’. Clinton followed normal Pollie political strategy like the ALP & the Libs do here. The author left out the crucial bottom line. Clinton won POTUS a 2nd time by old style triangulation
Just scolled back & noticed
“Always best to bear in mind that Obi’s enemies are playing for keeps”
the last 4 lines needed another two , perhaps off the cuff for the mood.
“turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound of silence”
“the twinking ron ray it t’was
those closest are all that truely matter”
Quick question – are there any Australian bookies that are offering odds on who wins the NC primary?
I’m thinking of having a punt on HRC winning in NC…
Kevin Rennie
#42
Brilliant. Yes the numbers kevin indicate the Obama just may snatch the Nominee , but the numbers & the Policys against McCain strongly favour Hillary.
The true story of Howard Dean DNC (Obama’s factional ally & mate) stitiching up Hillary (their factional enemy) over Florida & Michigan may blow up Obama
Ferny #47
“When it comes to US politics, I haven’t seen anyone yet who isn’t right of centre on most economic and social issues – including Obama”
Ferny , read my #37 of 4 Hillary policys and advise me by email via William if any of them are ‘right of centre’. Bill O’Reillly called them “socialist’
Pancho
#46
Dailykos is a biased pro Obama rag Believe it a thirtyeight another one if you wantbut then you criticise (rightly) Fox News for being pro ‘right’.Get some independent views (and not from pro Hillary ones either)
Jen @ 45
It’s from an absolutely hilarious anti-Clinton rant I linked yesterday. Here it is again.
Fair and balanced commentary from the Smirking Chimp. Hillary’s refusal to concede despite having lost should not be tolerated by the Democrat Party. Why is it being tolerated?
Because
(1) Hillary is a female
(2) People feel sorry for her because her husband has a “zipper problem”
(3) Starry eyed Democrats cling to the myth that Bill actually did something in his eight years
http://www.smirkingchimp.com/print/14249
Ron, I’m not sure why I need to send you an email via William. Have our opinions suddenly become clandestine?
Nonetheless, that’s my point (though you missed it). ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ have become redundant as those in the traditional ‘Right’ and ‘Left’ Parties adopt policies that would have made their forebears cringe. Overall, politicians from the old ‘Left’ parties have lurched to the Right. Blair’s famous line that ‘we’re all Thatcherites now’ could as easily apply to the ALP and even moreso the US Democrats. Howard adopted (albeit perhaps through clenched teeth) Medicare. That didn’t make him a leftie. Likewise, a few social policy crumbs from Hillary – or Obama – doesn’t make them a socialist, despite what O’Reilly says. And really, Ron – do you seriously want to use O’Reilly as your authority on what comprises a socialist????
#44 – Diog – [Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool] – i think you are a little hard on the old gal here. At least, with her, what you see is what you get. There is an honesty in her dishonesty.
My main beef with Obama has always been that he is not what he seems. You dont have to take my words for it. Just take the words of the person who probably understands him the most, this includes his wife, his Pastor of 20 years. Someone who has given him his identity, who has provided him with the belonging and his political platform. It was his Pastor who said: “he is just another politician, who would say anything and do anything to get elected”, including betraying his Pastor.
He said it twice, not once, first at PBS interview and then at the NPC Speech. You have to ask yourself, first why did he say this and second why say it twice. If he really thinks Obama is good for America and good the race relationships, he would have, like i said before, taken a long holiday in Patagonia and plays with the Penguins. Now Obama has “rejected” him twice, but each time to save his political skin. Please note Obama has not said he “DISOWN” him.
A large part of the Black community does support the Pastor, so I would suggest Obama would not dare to go beyond just “rejecting” his Pastor or wimpy “I want to use this press conference to make people absolutely clear that obviously whatever relationship I had with Reverend Wright has changed as a consequence of this”. He cannot disown him because they are already joined at the hip.
40
William Bowe
Thank Andrew Bolt? Oh yes, of course, for standing up to the world wide conspiracy of climate scientists, international businesses, politicians and thinking people everywhere who peddle this nonsense about carbon dioxide being a wee problem.
What would we do without his lone voice of reason? Eh?
(And for being the biggest loudmouth on Insiders who continually interrupts the other speakers so you cannot actually the hear the usually interesting things they have to say!)
Yep, he’s really unique, and I thank him for remaining so.
42
Kevin Rennie
I said it the other day, and Stephen Long said the same thing on Lateline last night:
The US is, right now, in recession.
The 0.6% “growth” was rising inventory levels (yep, they count that on the plus side in the US assesment of GDP).
That’s stuff being stacked in warehouses which cannot be sold to a consumer that has just stopped ‘discretionary’ spending, and is instead just trying to pay the bills and feed the kids.
This statistical blip may look good to the uninitiated looking at the radar screen of the MSM’s ‘economic press’, but anyone who watches more closely, knows what’s coming.(Next quarter the warehouses are still full but have NOT re-ordered. It’s called ‘inevitable’).
Housing is falling into a bottomless pit, wages have shrunk over the last eight years, inflation is up, credit markets are cactus, and the Federal reserve bank of the mighty US of A is actually in the process of socialising the country’s mortgage debt. (Eeeeeek, the hero of ‘free enterprise’ is looking more like the Soviet Union everyday! LOL)
You ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.
Ferny- re Left and right. It’s all relative. I know that the “left” has become more and more conservative here and in the US (that’s why we have the Greens here), but for want of a better term (happy to use one if you have it), there is a chasm of difference between the values underpinning Democrats and Republicans in terms of social policy and attitudes to war etc. Hillary appears to me to be closer to the Repugs than obama on miltary and national security. And that’s enoughfor me to back him. Enough murdering of civilians to ‘liberate’ them already.
Jen. I agree. My comments re Obama were in response to those from the Conservative side who pin him as ‘the most liberal’ (as if that’s a swear word – it used to be regarded as a foundation of western democracy) candidate in history.
My support of Obama has as much to do with my assessment of his character, and the fact that the Establishment doesn’t own his nether regions.
Glad to see you didn’t miss the opportunity to plug the Greens. Would their policy platform be different if they were a real chance of winning Government?
Jen again,
I forgot to mention that I have no better descriptor than left and right. I have no beef with their use per se. It’s their blaise application to current politicians that I find trite. Most pollies hold to an eclectic mix of what could be termed ‘left’ and ‘right’ policies. Very few (I can’t think of any) are philosophically committed to the Left or Right. Philosophical conviction has given way to pragmatism.
56 Finns
I agree with every word you say in that post.
And I don’t fully agree with the quote “Anyone who thinks the Clinton’s care about anyone besides themselves is a fool” as lots of people who believe in the Clinton’s are not foolish. But I do think they care not a whit for anyone but themselves. Still, I’m from the Dawkin’s school of ethics and I don’t believe anyone is altruistic, including Obi, although some people come closer than others.
There is still a fight in the old gal yet. If Obama loses North Carolina. It will confirm he is not electable in Nov and maybe, just maybe, Blacks are also beginning to doubt him. Watch his support crumbles and it will be Sweet Carolina indeed.
May 3, 2008
Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race
By JEFF ZELENY and JODI KANTOR
RALEIGH, N.C. —
Not long ago, Mr. Obama was perceived to hold such an advantage that some Democrats here wondered whether Mrs. Clinton would bother to compete vigorously. But the candidates intensified their efforts in the final weekend — both appeared here on Friday evening — and Mr. Obama was eyeing a return on the eve of the election.
“This primary election on Tuesday is a game changer,” Mrs. Clinton told a crowd in Kinston. “This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country — probably even a lot of the world — is looking to see what North Carolina decides.”
“If she carries North Carolina, she will get the nomination, and if she gets the nomination, she will be president of the United States,” Gov. Michael F. Easley, a Clinton supporter, said at a rally with Mrs. Clinton on Friday in Hendersonville.
#63 – link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/us/politics/03campaign.html?_r=1&ref=politics&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin
Finns
I’m predicting she wins Indiana by more than Obi wins NC, but it still won’t be enough as NC is twice as big as Indiana.
I noticed that Hillary’s lead in Indiana has moved up to 6.2 on RCP averages. Bearing in mind that ‘Undecideds’ have been breaking significantly for Clinton, this is shaping up as a serious thumping on current trends. There is, however, still 4 days to go.
The NC poll trends are showing a minor recovery over the last few days. It will be interesting to see if Obama can get his lead back into double digits by Tuesday, or will the Clinton Undecideds bring him undone again. Anything under a double digit win in NC will maintain the psychological advantage to Hillary.
In the words of Stephen Colbert –
“GROW SOME”
C’mon you lot! Predictions for Tuesday?!
#65 – Diog – i wouldn’t take the solid black (80%+) support for granted now, after Philly Mark 2. It could very well unravel right before our eyes at NC.
May 02, 2008
Renewed Wright Imbroglio Exposes Fissures Among Black Voters
By Jonathan Tilove
But his repudiation this week of his longtime pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr., may unleash a more open debate in the black community, where even some who back Obama worry that he is vague or evasive in his approach to race matters………………… To many, Gillespie among them, Obama’s problem is that he has never made explicit what, beyond symbolism, his election would do for black America. Now, he is rejecting Wright’s racial agenda without having clearly articulated his own…….. Indeed, “There’s a lot of winking going on in the Obama campaign,” said Glenn Loury, a Brown University economist who writes frequently about race.
Loury supports Clinton because, he said, Obama’s candidacy “is a place where the racial contract is being negotiated and renegotiated,” and he simply doesn’t want to entrust Obama with that power.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/renewed_wright_imbroglio_expos.html
Finns @ 68
Agree Wright will drop his black support. They won’t shift to Hillary, they just won’t turn out in the same numbers. He had to cut Wright lose more for the general election and to improve his “electability”.
Ferny @ 67
NC Obi by 6%
Indiana Hill by 8%
Obi gains 1 PD net
It was interesting to see Shields and Brooks on Newshour tonight. Brooks was more than confident that Obama would take the nomination, desptie his bad week, and even thought his ‘cool’ character was attractive in a President. Both of them dismissed the ‘gas tax’ nonsense, and Brooks was particularily scathing about McCain trucking (pun!) with this liberal crappola. Hillary was lumped with McCain, but otherwise ignored. Both talked extensively about Obama.
You can feel the closeness of the race, but the outcome is still not in question. Hillary can only win this by political kneecapping and coersion. She’s past the numbers, and the Wright thing will not do it for her.
(Brooks was good on this: Wright was NOT a problem for Obama until he decided to go to the press and posture because his life’s message was being dissed. Obama cut him free, as he had to, but showed himself to be vastly different to Wright, a post-partisan player, a uniter)
Shields was in agreement, Wright just showed what was the old school, what Obama is not.
Shields wanted Obama to kick Hillary and McCain much harder over their stoopid gas tax pandering.
When the guy on the right and the guy on the left are in such agreement, there’s not a lot of room for HRC.
(Apologies to Ferny regarding the loose terminology, it’s so gauche, I know, and just not Wright!)
This is called Obama’s chickens coming home to roost. He tried to run as the non-black black. That is, he is technically black, so that elite white liberals could make themselves feel good by voting for him (which is how he won all those caucuses). But since he’s not really black at all in a cultural or political sense (he’s an elite white liberal whose father was from Africa), he brought with him none of the culture of permanent black grievance which previous black candidates like Jackson and Sharpton had. Or so he thought. But to get his start in Chicago black politics ten years ago, he had to “pass for black” by paying lip-service to the culture of permanent black grievance, in part by sitting through Rev Wright’s black supremicist sermons. Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.
By the way, here is the truth about the Tuskegee experiments, which Wright used as his justification for the allegation that the US created the AIDS virus as an attack on blacks:
“In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years. Prior to the availability of penicillin in the 1940s and 1950s, the researchers couldn’t have treated the men even if they wanted to. Even after standardized penicillin treatments were available, it wasn’t clear that the patients could have been helped. Among scholars who’ve studied Tuskegee, there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment. But no one disputes that Tuskegee had nothing whatsoever to do with genocide or even a desire to spread the disease among the black population.”
I think that second-last sentence should read “there’s a lot of debate about how much — if any — was involved in the experiment.”
William you tiresome prat, are you deleting the word – - – - – now?
I haven’t the faintest idea what you’re talking about.
The missing word is Romeo Alpha Charlie India Sierra Mike.
I typed it three times and it disappeared. If you’re not blocking it, who is?
Adam, let me try – RACISM
How very sad. The only words on my “blacklist” are there to block spam, and they do not include “racism”.
99, It must be CHAOS
And more: “The Tuskegee study emerged out of a liberal progressive public health movement concerned about the health and well-being of the African-American population,” writes University of Chicago professor Richard Schweder. He adds: “The study was done with the full knowledge, endorsement and participation of African-American medical professionals, hospitals and research institutes.”
That would be KAOS, Finns.
It must be Adam.
Herr Doktor, we thank you for setting us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ straight on the syphillitic genocide stuff. Classic.
How many blacks are imprisoned in the US? How many die under the age of 5? How many in the top decile of income?
How many in the bottom?
Herr Doktor, would you allow them to vote? I mean, are they really ‘intelligent’ like us white folks?
And lastly Herr Doktor, when will Hillary win the nomination? You you still certain it’s Feb 5th?
And if a black man can’t defeat a white cadaver in a general election, do you think dumbocracy has any future?
Maybe the r-word is blocked by German keyboards out of uber-PC, which this country has a bad case of. Anyway I’m off to see the Nuremberg trials courtroom now. More at 11, as they say on CNN.
Adam
Agree re syphilis.
Tertiary syphilis is basically no longer contagious. And it barely responds to penicillin as the damage has already been done. The world’s greatest philosopher ever Nietzsche died of tertiary syphilis, many years after his one and only sexual experience, which happened to be with a sex worker.
Perhaps the Austrians are blocking that word. They’re still a bit sensitive about that kind of stuff after a bad experience.
I’m just giving you the facts, KR. I report, you decide.
Apology accepted, Adam. Thanks for coming.
My sincere apologies, herr websitedirektor.
Adam, i told them so that: “Obama can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Obama can not fool all of the people all of the time”.
Yes, Obama’s Ayam Jakarta sudah pulang rumah (This one is for the man from Kirribilli)
let’s try again
racism
well that’s very strange
Perhaps your comment contained another word/phrase which inadvertently included one of my spam blocks? If so, I will remove it if I can find out what it is.
Adam, your intepretation of ‘report’ is almost as wide as Fox’s:
“Now this past has caught up with him, which is why he will be unelectable in the face of a Republican campaign based on exploiting white rejection of black grievance culture. And that in turn is why the supers should do what they were chosen to do, namely exercise their independent judgment and find a candidate capable of beating McCain.”
It sounds more like prognostication from on high, (kinda like what we all do around here! LOL) to me.
But let it pass, your opinion has been noted.
Meanwhile, those Supers keep cross dressing to hide their homophobia!
Finn, this chicken is cooking Hillary’s goose!
KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+jews+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.
KR, I’m not denying that Obama will be nominated if things stay on their present course. That might change if loses NC, but that doesn’t seem likely as of now. My point is that Obama will have won the nomination almost entirely thanks to a coalition of blacks+liberals, and that is not enough to win in November now that the Repubs have found a credible candidate. Either Clinton or Gore would command a coalition blacks+liberals+hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass, which would win in a canter. Obama MIGHT be able to get enough of the hispanics+j*ws+white-catholic-workingclass vote to win, but equally he might well not, now that he is tagged as a black-grievance candidate. I don’t see why this simple statement of electoral arithmetic arouses such paroxysms of righteous sarcasm from you.
69 Diog
Yep I feel much the same re Tuesday. I’m hoping Obama can pick up a few percent in NC and get it back to double digits. Can’t see things changing much in Indiana though. Still, as you say, the delegate count remains virtually static.
It’s the psychology that changes, and the impact of psychology on SDs is anyone’s guess.
Perhaps William,
Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
Or it could have been casino.
Perhaps William,
Adam inadvertently used “ignorant loathing lefties”, as I am sure that you would never allow such nasturtians to be cast about your main posters.
Or it could have been cas*no.
Or vagina – but I imagine that’s unlikely.
No exit polls from Guam!! What is the state of democracy in that principality or whatever it is. They even spelt Hillary’s name incorrectly on the ballot paper as Hilary.
They get eight half votes for PDs and five SDs, so it’s quite conceivable that there will be a greater delegate shift from Guam than from the NC/Indiana primaries which look like a draw to me.
100
Diogenes
haha!! That’s too funny
Finns, as an Obama backer, I dont think the Wright thing is a good look. I dont think he expected round 2 from Wright, otherwise he would have repudiated him the first time. But you can chant “Wright, Wright Wright” until youre blue in the face, Obama is still the better candidate and has the most delegates
#102 – [the better candidate]? – it’s not me that you have to convince with the Pastorgate, it’s working class whites, hispanics, asians, catholic, jewish voters Obama has to convinced. So far, he failed miserably. he is being carried only by blacks and the liberals. Boy, you gotta carry that weight for a long time.
Even Americans will eventually get it that what someone you know says is not as potent as what you said yourself (like “I survived sniper fire in Bosnia” , when there was none).
yes finns i’d take Wright over the sniper lie any day
103
“he is being carried only by blacks and the liberals”
Yeah Finns – it’s just a shame there’s so bloody many of ‘em or Hillary would be winning!
cnn doesnt have the primary in Guam on its election center site- come on, it’s 4 delegates!!!
FG at 106, its the bloody maths thing again. If it wasnt for the maths, this nomination would be Hillary’s
In a recent comment, Herr Spam Dokter Carr, quotes the following without providing a source. I hope none of his students view PB because the information that Adam provides is chronically factually challenged. What some would be so bold to call a lot of Tommy rot!
From Adam’s assertion: “In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years.”
So why did President Bill Clinton apologise for it, Adam, if it were no more that a spot of misguided benevolence?
The Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment
“The United States government did something that was wrong—deeply, profoundly, morally wrong. It was an outrage to our commitment to integrity and equality for all our citizens. . . . clearly racist.”
—President Clinton’s apology for the Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment to the eight remaining survivors, May 16, 1997”
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0762136.html
“Using Human Beings as Laboratory Animals
The true nature of the experiment had to be kept from the subjects to ensure their cooperation. The sharecroppers’ grossly disadvantaged lot in life made them easy to manipulate. Pleased at the prospect of free medical care—almost none of them had ever seen a doctor before—these unsophisticated and trusting men became the pawns in what James Jones, author of the excellent history on the subject, Bad Blood, identified as “the longest nontherapeutic experiment on human beings in medical history.” ”
In 1932, public health researchers set out to study syphilis, particularly among African Americans, who had higher infection rates than whites. They recruited 399 black men who already had syphilis. The doctors infected no one. In fact, the patients were selected in the first place because they were tertiary-stage syphilitics who were no longer contagious. The researchers studied the progress of the disease, without treating it, for 40 years.”
Truly, Adam, your facility with History sometimes rivals that of Winston Smith.
only blacks and liberals.
He should be carried by Only Whites (do Blacks actually get to vote these days?), and neocons – who have done such a fab job to date.
Finns…. I know you don’t mean it the way it sounds.
#110 – jen [Finns…. I know you don’t mean it the way it sounds] – the only sound that i like is the sound of music or as the medicos would call it the sound mucus.
McCain? A “credible candidate” Or a great white cadaver?
Now, there’s a question!
Until the dreary bunch of Republican candidates took to the podium and unzipped their shortcomings one by one, McCain was nobody’s man. I suppose being the last man standing is some sort of prize, but the lunar right and the Christian loops are with Rush and Ann Coulter on this one.
OK, some of the lunch bucket brigade will never vote for the tinted guy (Wright or no Wright), but that all will flock to McCain after the 8 years of Republican bastardry and perversion of the fundamentals of the Republic is to credit these people with sub-moronic IQ’s.
Sorry, I don’t buy it.
When Obama wins the nomination, the full force of 8 years of bottled anger against this tyrany of the inbred Bush and his merry band of Neocons will be unleashed, and McCain will be raised like Frankenstein’s monster out of the formaldehyde and flayed without mercy.
Obama the ‘black grievance candidate’? Nup, he’ll be Obama driving the stake through the heart of the white zombie McCain, and finally killing this Neocon monstrosity in its tracks.
And the “ignorant loathing lefties” will be in “paroxysms of righteous sarcasm” no doubt! LOL
Bring it on!
Finnigans my friend,(and I do think we are by now, despite our differences) I would like to think that politics can be put aside for the greater good.
I think that the values Obama represents are those that most of us aspire to, and it saddens me to think that we reduce this to a football game of hoping the team we barack for – pun intended – wins, rather than who is most likely to change the paradigm of invested money, racial bias, religious intolerence, etc etc that is what we are all familiar with.
That’s why I disagree with you, but I appreciate the fact that we can do it with mutual respect.
And so my friend, may the best leader win.
Ferny
#47 & #55
Ferny , I understood your point, but totally disagreed with it ,thats why I suggested the examples. Your suggesting the ‘left’ and ‘right’ tags are blurred.
If you are a believer in the ’socialist left’ , or lefter , or in the Greens or a ’socialist’, then you may as well stop reading now.
I’m saying that there is some blur on foreign policy but not with domestic policy here or in the US. I’m saying the World of ’socialism’ &’whitlamism’ is dead. Today , in foreign policy we have chemical & bio weapons able to carry in ’suit cases’. We have unstable India, Pakistan & North Korea with nukes who’ll soon be able to hit us here (with 6 others playing with unranium enrichment). We’ve got terrorism witness Bali targeting Aussies. Countrys for their own safety need sound alliances with the US & via the CIA & other countries including Indonesia.That does NOT mean yu agree with all their policys
So there is broad consensus on the US etc alliance. Only the looney left say No
HOWEVER , Labor does have ‘humanitarian & human right’ in their policys (Rudd on Tibet) which the ‘right’ also detest & oppose.
BUT Domestic policy is still ‘left’ and completely different to the ‘right’
Hillary’s key domestic policys listed in #37) are the same as fundamental domestic Labor policys (although our Medicare is stronger). Obama disagrees with them. These Hillary policys are hated by the neocons , and for good reason they are the opposite of their conservative ‘right’ ideology. Labor’s are similarly hated by Howard & the Liberals. I do not agree the lines are blurred.
The means to achieve these have changed due to globalisation & the power of the money markets etc. But Labors equity & social objects have not changed & are opposed by the ‘right’ Yes , financial management is similar , how can one disagree with commonsense economics (except when not practised) so that you have the money to implement social changes that cost money
A political domestic change is ‘new’ Labor. Hawke/Keating ditched the least important & most unelectable damaging domestic policys (as has Rudd) so that 70% of the Labor equity Policys do actually get implemented, rather than sitting in opposition holding the 100% feeling principles pure, and still for example no ‘apology’ and no Kyoto and no equitable capital grants (computers etc) schools funding, no universal fast broadband for all , dental plan etc etc but with full workchoices operating.
These ‘left’ policys are ALL different to the ‘right’ who oppose them all. The lines are not I think blurred between ‘left’ and ‘right’.
Which of the 4 policys in #37 do you agree with & which don’t you disagree with ? (and still be an Obama supporter for other reasons)
#113, jen, cant remember who said this: “there are more things that bind us together than those that keep us apart” – is this a hillary and obama love-in?
I’m saying that there is some blur on foreign policy but not with domestic policy here or in the US. I’m saying the World of ’socialism’ &’whitlamism’ is dead. Today , in foreign policy we have chemical & bio weapons able to carry in ’suit cases’.
Perhaps you’ve had a few too many pinots over dinner, but I’m a bit confused by the conflation of ’socialism’ with ‘Whitlamism’. And I’m not sure what weapons have to do with either.
Yes , financial management is similar , how can one disagree with commonsense economics (except when not practised) so that you have the money to implement social changes that cost money
How ‘common’ this ’sense’ is may well be in dispute, since we have massive surplus budgets, both State and Federal, and many Australians who would condemn the neglect of Australia’s health and education systems, public transport and infrastructure…
Sat May 3: “The Merkan way of life will not be compromised” http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=Aiva4KJPcSckteMiptvLXtze.sgF
Sat. May 3: Scalias of Justice http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AugKdlXMDStVNgZt.xDS64DX.sgF
Fri May 2: Workable regimes often employ a spiritual Ponzi scheme with an exclusive national frachise to effectively help finesse the rubes. Not appreciating this was one of the original Russian Man of Steel’s biggest strategic errors. Generalissimo Franco understood the uses of a long established religion, so does Vlad Putin whose m.o. could be quite easily be described as “Fascist” nowadays.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AjeqF_E..ej4vw9T7EvrBK5X_b4F
Guam:
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage
…after they sink a few guava juices and start counting! LOL
Fri May 2: Workable regimes often employ a spiritual Ponzi scheme with an exclusive national frachise to effectively help finesse the rubes. Not appreciating this was one of the original Russian Man of Steel’s biggest strategic errors. Generalissimo Franco understood the uses of a long established religion, so does Vlad Putin whose m.o. could be quite easily be described as “Fascist” nowadays.
EC, the comparison between Putin and fascist regimes has been made quite extensively. Putin has cultivated a ‘youth movement’, called ???? (or Nashi, which means ‘ours’). Whilst this movement is filled with all kinds of drifters, opportunists and careerists, it also contains a certain number of brain-dead thugs who have been responsible for escalating violence and murder against blacks, Central Asians, gays, and perceived leftists. The movement, unlike the official line of the communist era, is explicitly nationalist and very supportive of the Orthodox church.
Sorry, ???? = Cyrillic characters.
Kirri #118 and THR #117
I did say:
“If you are a believer in the ’socialist left’ , or lefter , or in the Greens or a ’socialist’, then you may as well stop reading now”
I could said “the ‘looney left’ includes those that believe some of Whitlam’s cabinet’s public distaste for the US would get sacked today by Rudd. I could have said you could thumb your nose at the US in 1972 cause others didn’t have nukes but not now, there was no terrorism worldwide then , no bio & chemical world wide then, no. The island country was pretty safe fom the World
And I assumed people knew ’socialism’ or its basic principles were the basis of Labor to Whitlam and you were ‘left’ if you believed that (in the context of referring tp Ferny’s taging of ‘left’ had you read Ferny’s post which you did not
Socialism got ditched , it was a means , not an end
but then I assumed people read the newspaper on these issues
117
Enemy Combatant
Pander and Putin, two goodies Ecky.
Ya bring a moment or two of relief to this interminable dreariness which seems to have gone on forever. (Groundhog day has nothing on this primary season amigo!)
When David Brooks backhands both McCain and Clinton in the same sentence you just know they are talking crappola!
(Putin is a worry though. Do you think the Russian Orthodox church could be, ar, coerced, into making him a Saint? Saint Vlad the Impala? Saint Vlad the Impeller? Saint Vlad the Polonium? The slayer of Oligarchs and Crusher of Chechnya?)
Everybody is talkin’ –
Pastor returns to haunt Obama
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/01/mann.wright.obama/
EC, the comparison between Putin and fascist regimes has been made quite extensively. Putin has cultivated a ‘youth movement’, called ???? (or Nashi, which means ‘ours’). Whilst this movement is filled with all kinds of drifters, opportunists and careerists, it also contains a certain number of brain-dead thugs who have been responsible for escalating violence and murder against blacks, Central Asians, gays, and perceived leftists. The movement, unlike the official line of the communist era, is explicitly nationalist and very supportive of the Orthodox church.
This is an increasingly common phenomenon in russian culture and not unique to one man. for example, the national bolshevik party which are garry kasparov’s friends, aren’t only responsible for murdering minorities, they have ethnic cleansing as their party platform. it’s the same as how blair’s labour party tries to woo racists from the bnp. it is not unique to russia or unique to united russia. there are many, many russian parties linked to our supposed friends in the anti-putin opposition that stop at just the goal of racial purity.
Ecky:
A man who tried, but should have tried harder:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/03/world/europe/03boeselager.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…but don’t let the KKK read it.
I don’t disagree, Gam. A number of economic stats have suggested a post-communist decline in living standards for Russians. Radicalism has persisted, but it appears to have done so in a rather ugly, radical rightist form.
Whilst I agree that the situation has analogies elsewhere, I don’t think we could compare Blair’s Britain with Putin’s Russia. Sadly, the BNP got a seat or two (from the reports I’ve read) in the latest council elections. There’s even a party (the National Front) who, whilst they didn’t win anything, still got quite a few votes in some electorates. These guys reportedly consider the BNP to be ’sell-outs’.
124
gam
The NBP are Garry Kasparov’s friends?
Funny, but he was sure it was NBP thugs who beat him up?
Maybe you could check(mate) your facts?
The Finnigans Says:
[He’s been unable to expand his base of support — African Americans, affluent Whites and young people — into a consistently winning majority. Obama hasn’t been able to get enough working-class whites, in particular, to vote for him.]
hey look! a scary negro!!! obama knows that guy… he must be a scary negro too! i better vote for hillary. q.e.d.
don’t take this to mean i’m a obama supporter, or a hillary supporter. i actually went for bush last election. i thought that the lesson of the first four bush years hadn’t been fully absorbed (voters tend to be slow learners). it would appear that some remedial lessons are still in order so i’m going for tax cuttin’ economy stagflatin’ war fightin’ mccain!
hillary will get there in the end and be flogged by mccain as she sends obama’s new voters home and brings republicans out of the grave to vote against her. or she’ll damage obama so much that he’ll lose anyway. either way, i’m predicting another ten years in the wilderness for the dems. at the end of which ‘clinton’ will acquire the invective associated with ‘nader’. it should be awesome, it isn’t every day you see a global hegemony implode inside a decade.
FINNS
#56
Just scrolled back & saw your good post on the Pastor and liked your last line ‘they are still joined by the hip”
Obama did that completely in his Philly speech when he praised him as his mentor , friend & inspiratin for racial harmony.
There are so many contradictions now , perhaps he should concede. How can you be POTUS making monumental security decisions on your judgement , when u cann’t even get correct your Pastor mentor is not what you thought for 20 yrs
Further Obama’s chief selling point is that he is a healing force in American politics bring black & white into a more complete union. there is not even union between him & his Pastor (the guy supposedly his inspiration for harmony)
Obama “I don’t think he the Pastor showed much concern for what we are trying to do in this campaign and what we’re trying to do for the American people and with the American people..” The Pastor hasn’t changed since Philly at all , Obama has changed & supposedly the Pastor now does not understand
oh my god the pastor wright scandal has overtaken Guam, they have given Hilary their 8 delegates, and she is the nominee!!
(sorry got bored waiting for Guam results…)
127
Kirribilli Removals Says:
The NBP are Garry Kasparov’s friends?
Funny, but he was sure it was NBP thugs who beat him up?
Maybe you could check(mate) your facts?
Former world chess champion Garry Kasparov sees his campaign to change Russia as a mission to safeguard constitutional rights.
“It’s a very important battle,” he told the BBC, at the end of a news conference which he and his political allies had called to outline their plans for a protest on Saturday.
He has assembled a bewilderingly broad coalition. It includes former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and the extremist National Bolshevik Party.
The NBP has become known for audacious stunts aimed at embarrassing the establishment. Nevertheless, their flag borrows heavily from Nazi imagery – a hammer and sickle replaces the swastika. They hardly seem likely partners for Western-style democrats.
BBC
looks like your last move was a fool’s mate, kr
GAM
#128
thank goodness you posted. I thought the Obamabots were closet neocons but you brought me back to reality “hey look! a scary negro!!! obama knows that guy… he must be a scary negro too! i better vote for hillary. q.e.d.”
What a typical Repug moronic comment. Had you known anything about the working class (the closest to which you’ve only seen on a TV set) you’d know they want practicle solutions for necessities of life from centre right Democrats not ‘liberal Democrats’ and certainly not mugs from the Repugs. your type is why i find the Repugs repugnant
Andrew , the Obamabots said 8 weeks ago , it was a dead issue
so why don’t you question FINNS how he got CNN #123 to do a dud story so he could post it here
Ron, I dont believe I ever said Wright was a dead issue- does this mean that I am not an Obamabot- yippee!! If you read my posts at the time, I commented that I found it hard to believe that Obama would not have discussed or raised the controversial comments with the pastor in the past. I can acknowledge thsi hasnt been good for Obama, can you acknowledge the sniper fire issue not being good for Hillary???
Despite the Wright issue, I still think Obama is the better candidate.
The Finns at 123 aided by CNN, Obama has gotten enough votes to be ahead in the delegate count. You can analyse and break down the numbers all you like. They dont add up to Hillary winning
Ron @ 114 – some policy discussion, thank you
A welcome change from personality and process issues. And apologies to everyone else, I won’t stay long, just popped in coz most of USA is snoozing now, and won’t answer me for some hours yet, *hhmmpphh*.
.
I’ve just returned from a lovely dinner with the Canuck branch of the family in chilly autumnal ‘berra – *brrr*, not frosty yet, but not far off. We were chatting more about the possibility of a Unity ticket or pathways to election in the GE, given the Dem voter demographic bases are split. FWIW, the message I’m hearing, is that Obama doesn’t want or need, Hillary’s voter demographics in order to win. Hate Hillary all you like, but don’t hate her voters. If too many voters on either side, wont vote or campaign for the other – then neither can win the GE. So we were speculating about how the public spin-doctoring might sound, on the kiss-and-make-up speeches, or a surprise Edwards, Gore ( or *somebody*) “Come-Back” with a true ‘Unity Pony’
.
Anyway, being a statsy-style health economist, I found a reference to an interesting maths nerdy site, which did a kind of Monte Carlo algorithm (heuristic analysis) algorithm on the GE match-ups. For those who don’t know what such algorithms are, at its most simplistic, the travelling salesman analogy. Say, a salesman has to visit 5 cities in 4 days, but there are umpteen different pathways he can take to meet that objective, but which is the best? On a simple back-of-the-envelope it can be calculated easy enough in that example, but when you get on a large-scale like FedEx or train or airline scheduling scenarios, then computers usually have to calculate all the different pathways.
.
In this case below, it runs thousands of different possible scenarios for the GE, and looks at the probabilities of particular “pathways to winning” state-by-state on ECV votes, falling to one or other candidate/Party based on aggregate polls to date, past voting patterns, demographics etc, its kind of a way of getting a handle on which ones might be truly “safe”, which might be battlegrounds (”marginals”) or toss-ups etc. In this one, the author ran around 10,000 pathway scenarios:
.
But a warning, very much a site for the maths nerdy geek propeller-heads, and still just a ’snapshot’ as at end of April with a long way to go, and some inputs are “old” data, and may be unreliable:
.
http://hominidviews.com/?p=1494
.
On the lighter side of political opinion, has anyone seen any of the “Flineo” authored vids on Youtube? I apologise if others have posted them earlier, he or she) has posted several artistic short film vids in recent weeks, but my personal favourite in the ‘Flineo’ album is: ‘Winners don’t Yap” – (but it looks like I can’t access Youtube at the moment to give a URL – just search on User name “Flineo”.
.
But one for Hillary supporters to enjoy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kcdnlNZg2iM&feature=related
.
And, I’m off to download the latest episode of Battlestar Galactica, and a mocha.
Cheers – Rain
131
gam
I recalled Kasparov blaming the skin heads for his street beating but hadn’t realised he’d gone to the dark side and embraced the little darlings.
My goodness, doesn’t politics make strange bedfellows?
Beaten by a vicious state repressive regime, he seems to decided to try playing the same game. I don’t like his chances.
Thanks for the update, and no, I’ll never expose a diagonal on the kingside gratuitously.
having just realised that I was waiting for an 8 delegate result from the island of Guam on a saturday night, I have decided to go and get a life instead!!
Yes, THR, Kirri and gam. History is fascinating stuff all right.
Perhaps Robert Bollard will have something to say on Vlad’s embrace of Holy Mother (Orthodox) Church over the weekend before we get into NC and IA with the passion of true devotees.
When we gather for that delicious moment after the last polls are in and the preliminary gabfestin’ is done; when the votes and dels get divvied up; when punters recalibrate the stakes; when deals are nodded upon in Executive Suites of generic hotels as briefcases and brown paper bags exchange hands.
When the future confronts us; when the Banshee is done with wailin’.
When Columbia and the planet lurches towards shared destinies.
Russia/ KGB/ PastorsauceGate??
The more they do it the better I would feel if I was Obama.
The moment anyone finds anything of substance let me know.
Why on earth would you (PB posters) want to sink this low?
Surely no one in their right mind would suggest that Obama is more corruted/able than the Clintons.
Get a grip, and start thinking about what should happen years from now, not whose flag you’re hanging from your parapet.
New Zogby poll has Obama ahead by 1 in Indiana and 9 in NC
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1496
137- At least watch the football at the same time. That is how I am justifying it.
No results yet on Gaum as the poor things have been swamped with votes!
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80503017
140- So I should take the $6.20 on offer for Obama to win in Indiana?
RAIN
#135
Thanks for dropping by. Please keep doing so. Yes you are quite right , not too many wish to discuss policy what with just talking lofty aims and all that , but if you do not pick the candidate with the best equity policys to help people like Hillary policys do. What happens ? all you get is pollies earning a lot of money , going to lovely dinners & giving wordy speechs & of course making sure their Supa is OK.
Then next election the fplks are not better off , some are poorer and the Pollie makes more empt promises. Looked at that ite thanks , will spend more time on it. Enjoy yourself
Ron
I’m still here Ron, tonight anyway – am in and out web-surfing all over the place, crusing while waiting for a download of the latest episode of BSG aired in the US, Firday night their time, and some answers to my e-mails from those sleepy-heads up northern hemisphere.
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Just found an interesting US blog post, in response to our very own Aussie Loony Lefty Icon, Bob Ellis (who you may recall wrote a gross, crass piece on Hillary, at ABC’s ‘Unleashed’ last week)
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Check it out for a laugh at:
http://shakespearessister.blogspot.com/2008/05/hillary-sexism-watch-part-eighty-eight.html
ron @ 132, despite your histrionics i’m not a reublican either.
Jen
there has been o many news legs in pastorgate , no one has had time to look at Obama’s oil relationships yet. He id support the Bush/cheney bill, good company there. Hillary voted no like a principled Democrat would.
Guess Ferny I struck gold with one of the 4 categorys not to reply from , just cann’t beat good luck.
Andrew , why you haven’t been watching the football concurrently
gam
If you’re interested, a fascinating account of Liminov and his colourful life and his connection with Kasparov and the NBP:
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80503017
…and astonishing character, as only the Russians seem to make them.
You struck gold Ron?
So when is Cyrillic script going to be enabled on PB? And Greek? Even Hebrew and Arabic for occasional pieces? Come on, Will, nothing adds more gravitas to a post than scribbly stuff and a quote at the end…
They are desperate writers of headlines on Guam:
BREAKING NEWS: 11 p.m. — Still no results yet from Democratic caucus
…doesn’t that get your heart rate up?
150
THR
I’m waiting for Sanscrit myself. Mind you, some posts are as indecipherable with just the current alphabet! LOL
RAIN
#145
enjoyed the post. doesn’t give us a good reputation. The US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks made them think Ellis was a conservative !
Strange the US conclusion was that the venom of his anti Hillary attacks because they have been the same ghere from Obama supporters and they sound like conservatives sometimes here too.
Their closing critique was humerous Rain
‘I’d like to say Ellis must be a conservative, but he isn’t; Steyn describes Ellis as “an Aussie leftie and an Obama groupie,”
The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
They may be running away for other reasons Ron
GAM
#128
you said you voted for Bush in 2004
Kirri speaks to you after that quote cause Kirri lives in fairland policy as well
I thought Kirri was a closet Repug but he does like to get praised otherwise he’ll drop off talking to you
Like that comment for example
Ferny
#154
no , you guys are policy shallow , what with the categorys you’re in I ‘m not surprised. As I said Ferny you scored in one of the 4 categorys , fitting with the latee eh
“The other thought about policy is everytime I talk policy the Obama supporters run away in silence. They just want to talk his great dream he’ll bring racial harmony & ‘change’ whatever that is !
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Yeah *nodding*. Its a formula:
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Policy discussion:
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Hold fingers tightly in ears and chant loudly …la,la,la,la,la… until person gives up and goes away.
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, focus on “process” – math, rulez, math, rulez, math, rulez, math, math and more math (but only the ones that suit me)
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Rinse and repeat.
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If that doesn’t work, repeat the mantra of ‘change’ – ‘hope’ – ‘unity’ – blah, blah.
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Rinse and repeat.
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Oh Rain
you said it so concisely.
Its just I and you have seen thedevastion , and the assistance real policy can only start t make a little inroad ….but for some , the elitist-view lot, a Labor
vote in an election makes them feel good on the their way to suing som epor soul or to the jolly gentleman’s club
I must be getting old, I dont relate to “elitist”, I think they are trendies in my old Uni generational-speak – back in the late 70s, they were the rich kids of northern Sydney, slumming it over south side of Sydney, coz it was trendy to be a “poor” Uni student, eating Vogel’s bread and playing vegetarians.
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Having trips overseas, and showing off their purchases of exotic clothing or whatever from third-world countries etc, as “proof” of their contribution to, and genuine concern about 3rd-world poverty, saving the whales etc, while sipping imported French Chardonnay on Sydney Harbour yachts.
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All talk, no action.
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That’s enough Ron! If you wanted a discussion, more of us would happily discuss policy with you. But you don’t want a discussion, Ron – you want an ARGUMENT – and frankly it’s not worth the hassle. This is not about gaining an understanding of different viewpoints to you Ron. For some reason you need to prove something to yourself – that you can win an argument. I’m not sure why you have such an inferiority complex that causes you to be this way,but I want no part of it.
And what’s more you consistently attack and abuse anyone who sees things differently to you. Take GAM above for example. So he voted for Bush? He openly shared his view and for that he gets abused by you.
It’s unnecessary Ron and it really needs to stop. I tried to tell you the other night that I will not play this tit for tat little game of yours, but you did not listen. I can’t abide abusers and bigots Ron, and this is what you are.
Until you learn some civility I will not read any further posts of yours.
To those who deify Barack Obama, I post this link:
http://savagepolitics.com/
Specifically, the “Truth vs Barack Obama” article. Each allegation is pertinent, each allegation is sourced, and the Republicans will ahve a field day with them if he becomes the nominee.
Once Hillary has been beaten:
Finns, Rain,GG = Richard Dreyfuss
Ron = Bill Murray
What About Bob
Thank you Ferny – someone needed to say it.
RAIN
‘elitists’-view based just another word for trndies , except they think they are even more superior
Here FINNS my colleague & I are talking about on the US thread about ThePastor’s rcial comments effect on the US election and about policys and Hillary’s equity policys. Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut , and giving the money to the less well off , and supertaxing oil companies for redistribution & alternative energy use giving the poor a decent healthcare.
They don’t even want to talk about such policys. Not interested which is hardly Labor based at heart my friend
and the ‘Obama supporters’ talking about Russian Liminov and his colourful life and his connection with Kasparov and the NBP and Putin in a literary discussion
ivort tower stuff I’m afraid
Guam update:
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Obama Takes Ordot; Sen. Clinton Captures Maina
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 03.MAY.08
11:10 p.m. Guam – The official results for the Democratic Party’s primary election in two areas reveal that Senator Barack Obama took Ordot while Senator Hillary Clinton won in Maina.
Obama took Ordot’s delegates with a vote of 37 against Clinton’s 18. Clinton won Maina, 22 to 19.
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=161&twindow=Default&mad=No&sdetail=24089&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com
Same news here …
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
woops – wrong link
Ferny
#161
every time you are put under pressure on policy , you lack the detail and go silent or are uninterested. As for your lectures , that is typical of an elitist-view based support for Obama. Your sanctimonious blogs are just that, empty & shallow particularly on Obama policy which you’ve been shown up for. Nob thinking on politics
BREAKING NEWS: 11:50 p.m. — Obama leads after three districts counted
11:50 p.m. — Sen. Barack Obama is leading after three Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina and 151 in Inarajan for a total of 207 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina and 81 in Inarajan for a total of 121 votes.
In the race for chairman/vicechairman, the team of Pilar Lujan/Jaime Paulino have 245 votes in the three counted districts. Antonio Charfauros/Mary Ann Cabrera have 65 total votes and the team of Joseph Artero Cameron/Arlene P. Bordallo have 55 votes.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504002
Ferny
“Until you learn some civility I will not read any further posts of yours.’
you were not taught it which is evident in your Obama generalisations as he displays the same sanctimonious political thoughts as well
Okay, that’ll do.
William , Ferny interrupted a conversation between me 7 Rain where no blogers were named or even implied. it was unwarranted 7 unjustified
He has no right to make interupting sanctimonious lectures to anyone and given the tone of his interrupting blog 3161 , if anyone should be given a lecture it should be him
I’ll abide by your decision
Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). I enjoyed Hillary’s discussion of that issue with O’Reilly, (although I dont like her mid-western cackle either, but mid-westerners do – it goes with the local regional accent) I thought she really got that point across about ways of improving equity in access to health, education and taxation policy, and reminded me of Rudd with Kerrie O’Brien, or was it Laurie Oakes? or whoever – in a similar subject-matter interview last year. ie Her comment about “both of us” are in that tax-bracket , Rudd did the same thing.
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Speaking of Laurie Oakes, I still have bookmarked a somewhat old piece of his about how Rudd may not be keen on Obama, because of his preference for protectionist foreign trade policies:
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http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=449521&_cobr=optus
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If he means what he says, Obama would be the most protectionist US president for years.
None of this should be music to Australian ears.
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I thought it interesting, that Rudd had a behind-closed-doors meeting with Hillary, but open-with-cameras meeting with McCain, and only a phone call with Obama. can’t read anything to that, may just have been the demands of busy schedules of busy people.
I am not sure I like the concept of the half vote. Why not 3/5?
RAIN
perhaps you may return another time to talk Hillarys equity & social policys where blogers then present are interested in that area but its disappointing when some have no interest especially as there’s 45 million uninsured in the US and there is embarassment here because Obama’s healthcare policy has been demonstrated as a right wing choice only healthcare
and thanks for your thoughts
Ron
RAIN
glad you also saw the Hillary interview with O’Reilly
the obama supporters here falsely claimed Hillary was on O’Reilly’s side !
and said nothing of importance. The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
you arre right , Obama is very protectionist & will hurt our exporters
Here is a sample ballot from Guam (with Billary’s name missing the B and an l).
WTF is going on with the male/female bit? What happens if all the male are crap and you only want to vote for females? They won’t let you.
PS Has anyone considered that it might be a bit tragic that Australians are sitting up at midnight watching the results of a Guam primary for 4 delegates in a US Democrat election when there are 4000 delegates in total?
Whoops! Forgot the link. Too many vinos.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_qJGvnOCBQcA/SBvU1lfrEkI/AAAAAAAAAQk/IgtqxTzWRKM/s1600-h/delegateballot.png
Diogenes at 178
The thought had occurred to me – but it dissipated real quick!!
The bias must be caused by Obama’s hypnotic speechs dumbing their political thoughts
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Noooo..not entirely. The USA is the land of Hollywood, Disneyland etc. They are very, very good, Masters of the Art of Slick Propaganda, manipulative Entertainment and Manufactured Romantic Dreams. Make us look very provincial amateurs. Its very easy to be taken in by it, but a chunk of the US population have become de-sensitised, or innoculated against it.
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Youth vote for Obama for example. The younger groups have grown up with slick propaganda slime of 30-second false sound-bites about the Clinton administration, as well as romanticised and revised history in Hollywood movies about civil rights era etc. I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.
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That sort of thing doesn’t wash so much with older age groups, they lived those years and can remember the reality versus the romanticised revised version via Hollywood.
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Not really news – but this a good as I can get on a Guam update.
12:00 a.m. Guam – The results of three precincts are in, but the ballot counting at election central is still behind at this hour. After Maina, Ordot and Inarajan reported, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 26 percentage points.
But the manual counting this year seems to be taxing officials. In fact, Herbie Perez, chairperson of the Democrat’s nominating committee, has stopped overseeing the process to form another group with her at the helm. She told the Pacific News Center previously that she expected tabulations to be complete by 11:30 p.m.
However, its currently 00:48 in Gaum and no new news.
RAIN
#174
“Like increasing rich taxes back to pre Bush levels after he gave them a tax cut
Improving equity in wealth distribution, I always understood to be a standard ALP-style policy (please correct me if I’m wrong?). ”
No , you are not wrong RAIN , it is traditional ALP policy. the problem here is that Hillary has that policy and Obama does not (so the Obama supporters except one) just say nothing about that policy or any Obama policy
its all about the dream & Obama’s ‘character’ being better than Hillary’s. However a sound POTUS does not have to be likeable or tell the truth (both lie anyway) nor is it relevant if they have expediency history as Hillary does. Although after Pastrogate , the pastor now is expedient also with his 20 year friend , family Uncle & mentor so thats another good characteristic Obama has lost. Hillary is seen to be too ruthless so what , as if Obama is not ambitious and has not been rithless to get there.
However POTUS is about making judgement decisions (Obama over Wright failed that, didn’t know the mentor after 20 years) , having ticker (Obama failed that , he stayed in the Church , only ‘privately disagreeing) and about policy(we’ve been through that , Hillary has some sound ALP policys & Obama has not).
So what has Obama left , he talks eloquently , but very disingenuously deceivingly. and his opponent has an annoyingly cackle and can be dislikeable.
and concurrently , I’m watching the football & its great
Thanks Catrina,
I’m getting similar news. Another headline says, “Obama ahead after 5 districts counted” but the article is password protected.
RAIN
#181
“I remember being puzzled about one of Obama’s stump speeches, thinking where have I heard that before? Ohhhhh.. Duh.. of course, Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X.”
Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama
Guam Update:
1 a.m. — Obama leads Clinton 395-320 after six districts counted
“Denzel Washington’s famous speeches in the movie Malcolm X……Your memory is remarkable RAIN. Did the MSM pick it up or they too pro obama…”
Tweety was still getting QUOTE: “tingles up his leg” UNQUOTE over Obama’s eloquence. (Talking of closeted poofs!) But plenty of others noticed it on the net-sphere, and some smaller local newspapers, regional networks etc – Youtube vids were all over, splicing Denzel Washington speech clips with Obama’s stump speech, One of his Rinse and Repeats (the one about not letting them “hoodwink” or “bamboozle” you etc, he must know it off by heart by now).
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LOL, I guess not
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Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons? Ohhh, does she want payback …And Lord Kos is also an ex-Republican, who writes a lot for the Cato Institute, which is Libertarian Party dominated
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RAIN
Hope you are enjoying a book or the football football or some other concurrent entertainment. I have not been onto any Guam site at all as there’s only 4 delegates up. But I’ve just checked my stats fom early Feb when I predicted Obama would win the delegate race and I had Obama 60/40 back in early in Feb. It left me with Obama 2 to 1 delegates and I gave each Candidate 1/2 of the other 1. I wouldn’t think the delegates will vary from Obama 2 to 1 and /2 each or Obama 3 to 1 delegates but is not going to decide the nominee anyway. Perhaps however it is a news positive for Obama as its a day news relief from the pastor but then the news will move back to Rev Wright or some other news story
Guam Update:
1:15 a.m. — Obama leads Clinton 497-401 after seven districts
RAIN
#188
“Did you know Arianna Huffington (Huffington Post) is an ex-Republican’s wife, who has a loooong history with the Clintons?” Ohhh, does she want payback
No , I did not know that at all RAIN. Thanks for the info, your knowledge of US politics is a real bonus. i’ve only got mine from books and do my complicated analytical E/V stats based on many factors.
But Arianna Huffington , that puts my concern about huffington post now into context. It gets quoted here regularly by the Obama supporters as a gospel of independent jounalism. I kept reading their articles & after awhile of continued heavily pro obama articles I’d suggested they didn’t seem too independent to me , but the obamaphiles put it down to me not liking positive Obama storys
But most storys were pro Obama. now you’ve enlightened me , I can feel certain rather than an assumption. Thx
Ron – I have my Battlestar Galactica, which I download episodes direct from the USA, after they’ve aired there:) amongst other things — but sports ..nuhuh.. personally hate sports of all kinds, but since I live with a family, community, workplace, country and planet full of sports junkies, I dont usually make an issue of it..
I usually have a life, but taking some time to catch up with things…
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Just at a loose end tonight, and out for dinner earlier, far too much coffee etc, but can sleep tomorrow
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Obama is welcome to his delegates, (like Guam *matters*?).
He can have his good news, we can be gracious, like Hillary so often is. The weekend polls will be out on Monday, US time, Tuesday ours. Usually SUSA releases a final one the day before a primary, and they have been within their margins of error on their finals, in all but one state, this season.
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Zogby is the worst of the lot, apparently Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama – and the methodology of Zogby has been blatantly cooked all year:)
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HuffobamaPost its called yeah…just do some googling on the name, even wikipedia, thin as it is, probably mentions it in passing -but should give you links to help fill in the blanks.
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Was the mass ‘walk-out’ or ’strike” by some of the better more balanced journos at Huffington mentioned here? Happened back around Ohio/Texas primaries.
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Guam Update:
1:35 a.m. — Obama in front with 683 votes; Clinton trails with 596
Ferny – keep in coming!
woops – sub in with it
Catrina…I’ll be falling asleep soon. They seem to be maintaining a 100 vote split at the moment.
RAIN
By the way , your comments about the not too popular Kennedys riled one Obama supporter whose produced a real volley at you but whose only argument was that Teddy does get elected. Geezovers dog representing the Democrats would get elected there. i think what upset the bloger was bloger is a supporter of the ‘liberal’ faction in the northeast as are the Kennedys , the royal elitists’ of Massaschusetts
Zogby. To be honest , i do not factor them in , their polling results in some primarys have been terrible.Zogby’s brother is a super-delegate for Obama , geez Rain you continue to surprise me with info. Any feel SurveyUSA as an odd big Hillary poll lead threw me
Guam Update:
1:45 a.m. — Obama at 719 votes after 10 districts counted; Clinton at 629
From the Pacific News Center
Tabulation half-done; Obama still in lead
Pacific News Center Staff Reporter 04.MAY.08
1:45 a.m. Guam – With 11 out of 19 precincts reporting, Senator Barack Obama is leading Senator Hillary Clinton by 6 percentage points. The total preference count so far is Obama with 768 to Clinton’s 680.
Meanwhile, the race for Party Chair and Vice-Chair isn’t as close as the delegates’. With over half of the counting done the team of Pillar Lujan and Jaime Paulino is leading the three teams with 48 percent of the vote.
RAIN ,
i couldn’t avoid the maths being quoted here between the 10th & the 11th district totals. Votes counted after 10th , has had 51 votes counted & Hillary got 49. Not sure i believe that , perhaps a MSM mistake of figures misquoted
*nodding*, the old yankee Northern Democrats versus Southern Democrats – always been the fault line within the Dem Party. They never got over the Civil War, and are still split along that Mason-Dixon Line
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Although these days, it is more class-based than geographical, it still roughly holds that line of northern yankees, versus southern bubbas. northern yankees, like the Kennedy’s are “old money”, may as well be royalty of “old families” dating back centuries to the Mayflower. The Clintons have been called a “mixed Marriage” as in marrying across the Mason-Dixon Line. Thats why Hillary is hated separately to Bill, a traitor to the northern yankees, by marrying a southerner.
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must be late , count 100 , Obama got 49 to 51 , even spread in a distrct against the trend
Rain
#202
very true. Its why a notheast Liberal Democrat never wins a State in the South
and they get thrashed in POTUS elections.
Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?
must be late , count 100 , Obama got 49 to 51 , even spread in a distrct against the trend
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LOL, have another coffee Ron
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Thx , rain , just put it on
whilst water boiling , can I put up a thought thats been troubling me about Obama
As you do with the modern ’spin’ and advertising experts , the web site of all Candidates including the Roney & Hucks are all full of lovely words for the committed to glance aqt & to re-affirm their faith & quote from. None of them should be taken notice of. its what the Candidats say in interviews & debates that tell you their policys & how much they really know about them
With obama , after 12 weeks here , the most Obama supporters say in favour of him is 1/ good character vs Hillary 2/ anew style of politics , not the insider Hillary Washington etablishment 3/ racial harmony (well the Pastor blew tht up 4/ ‘a change to’ (but to what I do not know what)
NOTHING else. They will not say. What will be different for thUS people specifically. It all 1/ to 4/ lovely message , but where’s the contents ?
its like a used car salesman dressed up selling nothing
Bill from Arkansas won southern seats & POTUS (as did Carter from Georgia)
and the obama from Illinois supporters dream of winning South States to win POTUS, worse still obama won’t win Ohio nor Florida. Another ‘liberal’ Democrat POTUS election train wreck ?
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Yeppers. Gore came close too. Edwards also very popular, but pipped by northerner Kerry – but you see why Edwards had to go on the bottom of the ticket in 2004?
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Bill was a very poor working-class southern boy too, who through academic excellence won a full scholarship to Yale, which is where he met Hillary.
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If the Party Super-Deez back Obama for the nomination, it will be because they’d rather lose the GE, than serve under a Clinton administration in Congress.
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Anyway, back to maths and polls and predictions – I’m putting Obama down a little in North Carolina, he should on demographics take it by 15% or more, but I’m taking him down to about 8-10 points, I’m just guessing that turnout will be down a little, and some Repub women are crossing-over in secret (wont admit to polls, or to their husbands etc that they like her *chuckle*) – and Clinton for Indiana at around 5-10 points like Pennsylvania/Ohio etc, which again should on demographics, be tighter or an Obama squeak – because the north of that state, is in the Chicago media network districts, but Clinton should take the southern counties easily.
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But then my predictions have been wrong about half the time, so far!
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I think the most astonishing I ‘ve found is Obama does come fom the Democrat faction of the Yankee liberal ‘royal family ‘ northeast with broad visions of society built on cultural attitudes of the rest of the community and ‘politically correct’ philosophys. It is a world of the mix of the superiority thinking ‘trendies’ , the ‘elitists , inteligentsia, the ‘intellectuals’ ,the snoby part of academia , the literary self admire set , the lattee set and Obama is & represents them.
These groups are heavily represented on this site as Obama supporters and alleged Labor supporters.
But its not the real world where even middle income people face challenges , let alone the poor & disadvantage, and they are not interested in this visionary nonsense. They want real policy solutions
Regretably Obama has tapped into the and 20’s 30’s college educated set disenchanted with current poor politic (with justificaction) idealistically hoping for better without realising the dream has no substance & the new politics promise is a con, pollies are pollies. The object should be to get better policy outcomes & policy accountability regulations & scrutiny which requires detailed processes outlined , both of which the disliked Hilllary is promising
Hillary think by 6% Indiana. Obama by 13% NC (I’m assuming reasonable ‘black turnout despite the pastor. but I would like you to be right on Indiana my friend
Another report confirming the earlier report of 768/680 advantage Obama (seems that GaumPDM.com is simply relaying news from Pacific News Center).
2 a.m. — Obama at 768 votes, Clinton at 680 after 11 districts counted.
Sen. Barack Obama continues to hold the lead in the Democratic caucus after 11 Democratic caucus districts have been counted.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo and 49 in Piti for a total of 768 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo and 51 in Piti for a total of 680 votes.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080503/NEWS01/80504009
RAIN ,
I’ve organized to take 20 excited 10 years whov’e never been to the big time football before (plus their parents) to go today to a televised AFL game and I’m organized for all of them entry free which is a big help , with prime seats as well in the expensive area free & I’ve got to naturally look after all 20 of them & watch them for the day so I better get some sleep because so many youngsters of that age will probably be real excited & will keep my hands full, so my chips on shoulder , rudeness & my inferiority complex do not need to be exaserbated by tiredness. Can we talk another time & keep healthy RAIN
2:45 a.m. — Obama widens lead over Clinton
Obama: 54%
Clinton: 46%
After 12 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama has widened his lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus.
Obama got 37 votes in Ordot, 19 in Maina, 151 in Inarajan, 46 in Asan, 55 in Chalan Pago, 87 in Santa Rita, 102 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 28 in Hagåtña, 158 in Barrigada, 36 in Merizo, 49 in Piti and 131 in Sinajana for a total of 899 votes.
Sen. Hillary Clinton took 18 votes in Ordot, 22 in Maina, 87 in Inarajan, 33 in Asan, 87 in Chalan Pago, 73 in Santa Rita, 81 in Mongmong-Toto-Maite, 29 votes in Hagåtña, 166 in Barrigada, 33 in Merizo, 51 in Piti and 89 in Sinajana for a total of 769 votes.
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504010
3:25 a.m. — Gaum
Obama: 899 (50.7%)
Clinton: 874 (49.3%)
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504011/1002
And a conflicting report from Pacific News
Obama: 1007 (53.5%)
Clinton: 874 (46.5%)
3:30 a.m. Guam – Despite being the home of Senator Barack Obama’s arguably most outspoken supporter, former Governor Carl Gutierrez, Agana Height’s vote was split nearly 50-50. Josh Tenorio from the Obama camp, speculates Republicans and Independents registering as Democrats for the day may have swayed the vote, but says he could not explain definitively why the village’s turnout was so close.
13 precincts have reported so far, and Senator Obama has kept his 6 point lead (1007 to 874).
Guam update: 15 of 19 districts reporting.
Obama: 1,393 (53.3%)
Clinton: 1,222 (46.7%)
4:15 a.m. — After 15 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains a lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus, with about 54 percent of 2,230 total votes counted thus far
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504013
Guam update: 16 of 19 districts reporting.
Obama: 1,420 (53.3%)
Clinton: 1,246 (46.7%)
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080504/NEWS01/80504014
The extreme right is claiming Hillary as one of theirs.
I’m about to choke. This woman has the principles of an alley cat.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/063kvafy.asp?pg=2
And in response to Rain and Ron’s little love-in last night wherein terms such as “closet poofta”, etc were thrown about with such glee like naughty children who have stayed up after the adults – you do yourselves and your candidate no favours my friends.
It’s lovely that you found each other (Rain- you may live to rue the day), but the constant barrage against anyone supporting Obama is frankly ridiculous.
As Ferny said- no further discussion from me either.
Guam update: 18 districts reporting.
Obama: 1,496 (53.5%)
Clinton: 1,298 (46.5%)
5:40 a.m. — After 18 districts have been counted, Sen. Barack Obama maintains about 54 percent of the vote, leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. One of the largest districts, Dededo, still hasn’t been counted toward the total vote, however. The other two districts yet to be counted are Agat and Yona.
Note – an estimated 1,400 ballots from Guam’s largest village, Dededo, have not yet been counted.
6:30 a.m. — With only Dededo left to count, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Democratic caucus. Clinton will need to win Dededo by 204 votes to overtake Obama.
Obama: 1,951 (52.7%)
Clinton: 1,748 (47.3%)
Hafa Adai, Bludgers, have you ever been greeted in Gaumanian before?
Tres Pacifique cosmo, non?
Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:
Catrina, you are formidable, a Bludger of focus and intensity. Bloody well done. My info is so yesterday, but post it one must, in the hope that we might glean a bit of demogro oil, eg, what is the % of US Fiorces voting in the Gaum total?
Coconut Cowboy Corrals Coral Vote OK:
“HAGATNA, Guam — Barack Obama was leading Hillary Rodham Clinton in presidential caucuses on Guam, which has assumed unexpected importance in a historic Democratic race in which every delegate matters.
With 15 out of 21 districts reporting, Obama was ahead with 1,393 votes to 1,222 for those pledged to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.
Four pledged delegate votes were at stake on the island 8,000 miles from Washington. Guam also has five superdelegates and some of those are being determined in the caucus voting as well.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/obama-clinton-vie-in-guam_n_99950.html
From my poorly edited HuffPo link: “More than 3,000 votes were expected in heavy turnout at caucuses in the U.S. territory, where neither candidate campaigned.”
A quick squiz at Catrina at 220 indicates that when the dealin’s done, over 4000 voters will have polled. This is more than your common or garden gnome variety “heavy turnout”, it’s one king-tide of a turnout. Tsunami-esque. Textbooks will refer to it as Guam’s salute to the new Democratic Big Kahuna.
Perhaps slumbering Super Ds will harken to the Pacific people’s perturbation. At least for Obi, Brutusina’s run of “wins” has been shattered. In this game, as indeed in life, love and poker, little fish are sweet.
EC and Catrina,
Thanks for your sterling effort.
Looking good.
thanks guys -
so this should give Obama the bounce he needs. Fantastic to see so many get off the couch and vote: whatever else happens democracy is the winner in this election.
Hot off the press NY Time:
Update | 7:15 p.m.
The Associated Press calls Guam for Obama
The kid storms the Pacific, but last vote tally I saw he was but 204 votes ahead!
But like Ecky says, small fish, and probably coconuts, are sweet.
Guam reporting 100% vote 50/50- Obama by just 7 votes
A wins a win?
Close, or what?
Here’s the story:
According to The Pacific Daily News, Mr. Obama won by just 7 votes. So given the proportional allocation of delegates, the result probably won’t affect the delegate math. However, an Obama supporter was elected to be the party vice-chairman, so he did pick up one superdelegate.
NYT
227
Blair S. Fairman
For the purposes of the maths, ie one more super, yep, a win is a win.
God let this finish! LOL
Yep a win is win.
Clinton need absolutely everything to fall in her favour.
If she is to get across the line it will be by the barest margin given the vast numbers of supers she needs to pick up.
So even the loss of one super in Guam is significant.
The time since march 11 has been purgatory for Obama. He was always going to lose Penn so this gave Clinton an eight week window to look like the front runner and try to get the supers to split her way.
She did make in-roads but trashed her reputation with the broader electrate. Also, critically, she failed to crack Obama – which is what she really need to do.
I think the dynamic is about to change on Tuesday – when the improbability of a Clinton win becomes clearer.
… still if she can win NC ….
Betfair Odds Time:
NC Obama $1.05 Clinton $9.20
Indiana Clinton $1.16 Obama $5.90
Overall all: Obama $1.38 Clinton $4.20 (also Gore $24 Edwards $620)
For President: Dem $1.62 Rep $2.56
Good morning Bludgers.
From the NYT re Guam:
“Results of the count completed Sunday morning Guam time show delegates pledged to Obama with 2,264 votes to 2,257 for Clinton’s slate. That means they’ll split the pledged delegate votes. Obama’s slate won in 14 of 21 districts.”
So The Kid won 2/3 of the districts and still was only 7 votes ahead?! Some race!
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-Guam-Caucuses.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Kirri@229,
’tis agonising,especially when inevitably both Clintons and Repugs will be using their covert range of dirty tricks.
Am expecting the BFG.
And btw,congrats on being crowned the PB ‘chick magnet’ by a fellow PBer some time back!! lol
Back to the real world…
Sportingbet:
Dem Nomination:
Sen. Barack Obama 1.30
Sen. Hillary Clinton 3.40
Al Gore 15.00
Prez:
Sen. Barack Obama – DEM 2.30 (out from 1.95 last week)
Sen. John McCain – REP 2.35
Sen. Hillary Clinton – DEM 4.35 (in from 5.00 last week)
Al Gore 17.00
I love the way Al Gore is hanging in there with the bookies.
I guess the idea is that Obama and Clinton will beat each other to a pulp and Gore will step in at the last moment as a cleanskin and scoop the nomination.
But 15-1 is overstating the chance.
WTF people, WTF!! There’s going to be a recount in Guam. Will this never end!!
Officials Say Recount Is ‘Imminent’
http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/default.asp?sourceid=&smenu=97&twindow=&mad=&sdetail=24109&wpage=1&skeyword=&sidate=&ccat=&ccatm=&restate=&restatus=&reoption=&retype=&repmin=&repmax=&rebed=&rebath=&subname=&pform=&sc=1718&hn=pacificnewscenter&he=.com
The Right’s Anger Over Obama:
“Obama was, I think, brought up and lived for a long time in an atmosphere in which occasional left-wing excess did not grate on his ears or his temperament as they would on people like, er, me. And his desire to connect to a black experience he never fully had himself also played a part in not distancing himself from some aspect of his pastor’s rhetoric or friends’ associations. But to go from this to the vicious attempt to portray Obama as a fraud, an actor, and another phony politician is a sign of the hard right’s nervousness. When you listen to Sean Hannity, you hear someone who looks at Obama and sees every racial fear he has ever had about black Democrats personified. The difficulty of making distinctions between, say, Sharpton, Jackson and Obama is just too much for him. They’re all black Democrats, aren’t they? They must all be traitors or far left anti-American hate-mongers. He doesn’t even hear the broader Obama message, the full Obama manifesto, the book, the countless speeches, and interviews and debates in which Obama’s broader post-racial, post-partisan appeal is exposed. One can only hope that most people will see the full picture. But the right-wing freak show machine will do all it can to prevent it.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/05/the-rights-ange.html
FG,
does that make him too black? Or not black enough? I forget which one we’re up to at this stage.
I think this is coming down to whether or not Obama can be seen as a uniting figure. The critics are attempting to attack his key message (uniting force etc) by painting him as an ‘extremist’ or ‘corrupt’, much in the way the media has been best at – through association (see McCarthy, David Hicks, Brian Burke, Haneef).
Recent Australian history suggests this isn’t effective. However, not knowing much about the states, i’d suggest its possible that this could effective. The article at 238 makes me kinda scared that this could be a successful action.
And by way of comparison, Sportingbet is offerig these odds on the next Oz Fed election:
Labor 1.18
Coalition 4.50
So I guess Hillary has roughly the same chance of becoming Prez as the Libs do of forming the next government here.
239
YoHoHo – the author is optimistic that the Bush years have created the environment that has made Obama possible. He argues that the nation is so disgusted with what they have become under Bush that they want to hose him and what he stands for completely out of their bloodstream.
So it’s not about whether he’s black enough or too black. It’s about the complete contrast he brings to what they currently have
yeah fair enough FG.
And the obvious advantage he has over Clinton and McCain is his lack of connection to the Bush years.
FG @ 233
‘So The Kid won 2/3 of the districts and still was only 7 votes ahead?! Some race!’
Dio @ 237
Standby: Guam Gate
From MoveOn.org:
“Stand up for Democracy in the Democratic Party
A group of millionaire Democratic donors are threatening to stop supporting Democrats in Congress because Nancy Pelosi said that the people, not the superdelegates, should decide the Presidential nomination.
They’re Clinton supporters and they’re trying to use their high-roller status to strong arm the Democratic leaders.
So let’s tell Nancy Pelosi that if she keeps standing up for regular Americans, thousands of us will have her back.
A compiled petition with your individual comment will be presented to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Democratic leadership.”
http://pol.moveon.org/democracy/?rc=homepage
FG -
like I said earlier – alley cat.
Can’t tell me the clinton’s aren’t the muscle behind this approach.
234
megan
Yes, it’s strangely both fascinating and boring in equal measure, depending on my mood. But you have to say it’s an eye opener to the weird world of American politics, eh? Especially in a period of such incredible economic turmoil and the realisation that the Bush years have been a disaster for them on so many fronts.
As for the ‘chick magnet’ is that anything like a ‘fridge magnet’? Can I stick it on a chick, and will it chirp chirp for me?
I’m not exactly sure what one does with such a device! LOL
Diogs- what do you reckon happened to the missing votes in Guam??
Kirri,
Find my sympathies with Gore Vidal,except for his rather dour opinion of Obama.
And it isn’t just about wishing one or other side to win,but that they at least ‘walk the talk’ of democracy.
Ethics go out the door when the hunger for power overwhelms,n’est-ce pas?
And as for that ‘chick magnet’ and sticking it on a chick, as a small child my father used to tell me that if I put some salt on a chick’s tail,it would allow me to catch it!
(Spent hours in the henhouse until it dawned on me….! Doh!)
BTW don’t know of anyone who still has their JWH fridge magnets.
Does anyone?
Keeps me alarmed not alert at all times Megan.
Have been more alarmed since alerted,Jen.
There was actually far more terrorist activity in the 60’s, 70’s and 80’s when the IRA, PLO and others were at their most active. Yet we’ve swallowed the line that the threat today is so great that we need a raft of new laws to clamp down on civil liberties, basic freedoms and justice. It was always a con.
…a neo-con.
well it’s all over folks. newt gingrich on the view proprogating the myth that hillary has more votes. he says she will win the nomination. quite an interesting reading of the math. Makes you realise how desparate the neocons are to face Hillary rather than Obama
Will Turd Blossom wilt under legal heat?
Yes, I think so, the spoilt fat-fcuk won’t know what hit him especially if prosecutors time the suit so that The Imbecile can’t architect Rover a pardon. ie, verdict isn’t delivered till after El Loco and the PNAC-people leave Signing Statement Manor.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/linkset/2005/04/11/LI2005041100879.html
Reckon Froomkin does the best all round summary of the Sep Scene. If pressed for time, his is the first online full piece I read after doin’ the boot-up scootin’, finger-tappin’ ,Global Headline Hootenanny Hoedown. Aka, everything you ever wanted to know in the political universe in less time than it takes the axle of Evel Keneval to soar over the Axis of Stupidity—–which plain speakin’ folk know to be the line on the map joining Crawford Ranch to the White House.
the latest conservative tactic appears to be selling the idea that it is Hillary they fear not Obama. Good try
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/03/wright.fallout/index.html
Great link,EC.
‘Sep scene’ you say? As in Sep-tic in this case- the stench of cronyism seeps through the lot. Conyers has got a fight on his hands.
Was particularly struck by the quote:
‘They are trying to crash our party and we need to beat the [expletive] out of them in front of all the other would-be party crashers who are standing on the front lawn waiting to see how we welcome these dirtbags.’”
Could David Hicks,for one, be a casualty of that type of mindset in our fair land?
Asylum seekers?
Can’t remember where I read it but there was a analysis of the Bush family dynamics, and it included how Barbara Bush in particular was an “if you are not for us,you are against us’” proponent. Would be interested to know if anyone has read similar re the Clintons as often these domestic glimpses tell us more than all the cleverly-crafted speeches and well-coached debates.
It has passed without notice, but it should be noted that Obama has increased his RCP average lead over Hillary by 0.1% since yesterday.
HE’S COMING BACK!!!!
deja vu. got a funny feeling that NC is going to turn out to be like NH. All polls point to Obama’s win but on election night a big big surprise for all the pundits..
Obama’s appeal to working-class whites faltering, polls show
By ALAN FRAM – 3 hours ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — Barack Obama’s problem winning votes from working-class whites is showing no sign of going away, and their impression of him is getting worse.
Those are ominous signals as he hopes for strong performances in the coming week in Indiana and North Carolina primaries that would derail the candidacy of Hillary Rodham Clinton, his rival for the Democratic presidential nomination. Those contests come as his candidacy has been rocked by renewed attention to his volatile former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and by his defeat in last month’s Pennsylvania primary.
…….. Terry Madonna, a political science professor at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa., said Obama lost among working-class whites in the state because his message of how this generation’s time has come did not address their economic needs. “While it’s incredibly motivating and passionate and compelling, it lacks content,” Madonna said. “Hillary would come in and relate to them, talk about the specifics of her policy.”
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5i2KQidLr59sarCmZJWItZk5fz0cAD90EH8800
Maybe off-topic, but I’ve just heard that the Democrats have picked up one of the two seats in Louisiana that had special elections on Saturday. (”Special election” is essentially equivalent to a “by-election”). Both seats (1st and 6th congressional districts) were deemed safe Republican districts, but Dem candidate Don Cazayoux has picked up the 6th district. (No word on the 1st district, but it’s a cushier seat and considered likely to stay in GOP hands.)
It’s maybe relevant to this thread, because the Republicans ran hard against Obama in these special elections, branding him a “liberal” etc in their ads (the usual muck peddled by the GOP). Looks like it failed badly.
P.S. This is the second seat in Congress to be picked up by the Dems this year. In another special election held in March, the Dems picked up a ’safe’ GOP seat in Illinois vacated by former speaker Dennis Hastert. (Illinois also happens to be Obama’s home state, and the state he represents in the Senate.)
L’Imbecile est triste. Le coq sportif flyboy avec codpiece n’ a pas Le Gateau Liberte a manger pour “Mission Accomplished” l’anniversaire #5. Awwwww. Quelle domage. Baisez-moi a la morte!
http://www.ajc.com/shared-
blogs/ajc/luckovich/upload/2008/05/fifth_anniversa/mike05022008.jpg
Guess the dumb schmuck will have to choke up on a mess of Freedom Fries instead! Maybe Jack Bauer can do the force feedin’.
—————-
Megan, Sep Scene=the present situation pertaining to politics in the USA. Septic tank; rhyming slang for Yank. Current demographic functionally extends south of the Mason-Dixon line from about the time of the repeal of Jim Crow racial discrimination laws through Sister Rosa’s and MLK’s era.
Although I’ll grant you the stench association is apt in almost all matters PNAC/WHIG/Neocon and GOPper. And Brutusina’s coterie reached for the nose-pegs too when their Duck Slayin’, shot chasin’ candidate kicked up her heels doin’ the Faustian two-step as her ugly spin-sters (good evening Sidney Blumenthal) got medieval on Obi’s ass.
FG #246 and Jen #247,
If the SD’s sole purpose is to go with the popular will, then why do they exist?
Their purpose is to pick the candidate who will do best in November. Obviously, I consider Clinton to be that candidate, but I can understand if they feel Obama to be that candidate, and act accordingly. What I cannot abide is the wailing of Obama partisans every time one goes for Clinton, and accuse the Clintons of “muscling” them.
Perhaps they look at the poll numbers:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
, compare the HRC/McCain numbers to the BHO/McCain numbers, and conclude that Obama may be a riskier proposition come November. Especially once the Republicans start in on him in earnest. Bear in mind, they’ve been trashing Hillary Clinton for 12 years now, and she’s survived. Will he stand up to that? I do not believe so, especially in light of the following:
http://www.savagepolitics.com
Above is a site containing an article “The Truth VS. Barack Obama”.
This is a laundry list of over 60 lies that Barack Obama, HIMSELF, has knowingly uttered, complete with sources and evidence. Some are trivial, some are insufficiently supported for my satisfaction, but what’s left is bad enough – especially for the candidate who has made so much mileage painting himself as the “New Politics”, clean and grime-free candidate.
255
Enemy Combatant
Wouldn’t it be nice to see some of Rove’s Turds return home to blossom? This little freak has greased the rails for Georgie Poorgie and thought nothing of perverting the judiciary nor outing Plame (yeah, only Scooter got a parking ticket on that one, but Turd Blossom was up to his goitered neck in it) nor anything else he thought they could bury in the dungeon away from the public.
Repulsive is not a word I use lightly, but this little TB wears it perfectly.
It’s so nice to see his Republican Reich unravelling at the speed of light and his half-witted creation reviled as the worst president of all time.
Look on all your works Karl, they doth stink to high heaven.
#262 – MC – [What I cannot abide is the wailing of Obama partisans] – because the Obamabots here are driven purely by their hatred of Hillary.
Finns #264,
Watch your language. I disagree with the Obama partisans on this blog, but no mane-calling, please. “Partisans” is not inherently insulting. “Bots” is.
Jen will no doubt recall a stoush between us on that topic, which I freely confess I lost.
The Finns at 264, given I dont hate Hillary I guess I’m not an Obamabot. What a relief
Yesterday’s (US) changes to the superdelegate count:
Obama picks up 3 superdelegates: DNC Brian Colon (NM), the new add-on Inez Tenenbaum (SC), and new Guam Vice-Chair Jaime Paulino (GU). Clinton picks up 1, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (MD).
Clinton: 268
Obama: 247
Throwing in the Pelosi factor we have:
Clinton: 267
Obama: 254
That’s Clinton ahead by 13.
Thanks Matthew- I am bit over Obamabot- it’s actually boring.
And MC I dont think I have wailed here either. I agree with you that the SDs should choose whomever they wish. My point has always been that the trend has been toward Obama since the start of the year, and that the Hillary supporters appear to think this will magically change
Catrina thanks for the SD update- wonder what would happen if enough came out to push Obama ahead? This is the last count that Hillary is actually ahead in after all
Uh-oh, looks like there’s a flaw in Zippy’s ceiling.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/comics/Zippy_the_Pinhead.dtl
———————-
Yeah, Kirri, delighted you loath the bastard spawn of Lee Atwater as much as I, sir. There’s a special sink in the low-rent section of hell waitin’ for Turd Blossom. The faucet there oozes lava. And Karl always strictly adheres to his personal hygeine ritual of regular handwashing.
I can hear the demons taunting him now:
“Hey, Stumpy, who’s gonna win the 2036 GOP nomination?!”
Like Santa’s, Satan’s little helpers don’t muck around, especially when they’re on the case of hot damned soul. More persistent than a bunch of seasoned network marketers at an Amway gee-up bash.
#268 – i assume that continuous Hillary bashing regardless is not boring and rather exciting
Afternoon bludgers.
There’s a 2 enormous problems with using any of the polls that I’ve seen so far that compares how Clinton and Obama go respectively against McCain.
The first is simply statistical – what we are actually looking for is how many extra voters either Obama or Clinton are estimated to bring to the table against McCain, but these polls aren’t specifically measuring that, what they are effectively measuring is two groups added together:
Group 1 – the people that will vote Dem regardless of the candidate
Group 2 – the voters that will only vote for either Obama or Clinton.
So if we have a big sample of 2000 voters that will likely vote, we know that both Clinton and Obama would get somewhere between, say, 1000 and 1200 of those voters.
But about 800 of those Democrat voters (give or take) would vote for either candidate at all times – so they are polluting the sample, they are people we effectively aren’t interested in.
Similarly, there seems to about 600 voters for every 2000 sampled that will vote Republican at all times regardless of whether Obama or Clinton are standing. They too are polluting our sample and we aren’t interested in them.
What we are interested in is the 600 in every 2000 max that are in some way temperamental voters for either Obama or Clinton.
So we are really only interested in 30% of the sample – but these polls are so small , usually less than a 1000 people, that we start from a position of an MoE on this group being at the absolute minimum 4%, but more likely closer to 6 and 7% on the numbers alone.
Even at 4% the MoE is bigger than the size of any difference between how Obama plays against McCain compared to Clinton.
On top of this we add the uncertainty involved in this not being compulsory voting – so we can blow out all the MoEs by 1.5 to 2 times what they are on paper simply because people that say they will vote aren’t guaranteed to actually vote. The 1.5 to 2 times blow out seems to be what get’s used by polling more sophisticated than the public pollsters in the US.
So by now – the whole thing has descended into a fairly deep level of pointlessness.
But wait – there’s more! That’s only one reason.
The other reason is we don’t actually know what either Obama or Clinton would do to rally their supporters to the other candidate should they lose. So not only are we dealing with numerical uncertainty larger than any vote difference between the two Dems and McCain, but we are also forced to ignore the biggest factor of all – whether either candidate could or would rally their own supporters behind the eventual nomination winner and how effective that would be.
So at best comparing Obama and Clinton against McCain using the simple polling that is being used is at best completely and utterly pointless.
And I don’t get this whole “Obama is failing with the white working class vote and cant beat McCain” or “Clinton is failing with the Democrat base vote and cant beat McCain” simply based on the results of a competition between Obama and Clinton.
The real questions are whether working class white voters prefer McCain over Obama or whether affluent liberal democrats or blacks prefer McCain over Clinton – which seems to be no in all cases so far, and looking more likely so when the contest starts proper and the Democrat political machine starts throwing big buckets of economic shit over that cranky old loose cannon McCain – a bloke so out of his depth on most policy issues that he makes Bush look good.
possum welcome back and as usual your expert analysis is a great tonic for the MSM spin
Finns:
Hillary-bashing is fine. Or Obama-whacking, if that’s your thing.
They’re the candidates.
What annoys me is the constant insulting of Obama’s supporters.
But we’ve been over this………..
Our wonderful candidates weigh in on the Guam results …
Firstly, Obama:
And then Clinton:
cheers possum. Hope the honeymoon went well- (the cake looked fantastic!).
Your analysis is v. clear and makes much sense. Thanks.
#275, Jen , [What annoys me is the constant insulting of Obama’s supporters] – i should say TQ to the constant praises that i have been getting from the Obama’s supporters
Here is an interesting little graph detailing satisfaction/dissatisfaction levels of two groups:
a) African Americans relative to Clinton
b) Whites with Obama
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/05/02/opinion/column-chart5-for-web_xx.gif
From the supporting article we some interesting observations:
However, …
Ta Andrew and Jen – your most welcome.
Jen, the honeymoon went so well I’m still recovering
Finns- I don’t like it either way it happens. If I have been offensive to you I apologise. I will however continue to give Hillary the condemnation I think she deserves. (unless she beats Obama – and then i’d support her: anything is better than another republican. Even an almost-one).
Yep Possum, a more erudite explanation of exactly what I said last night to Herr Doktor about the viability of McCain with ‘disaffiliated’ sectors like white working class voters.
I’ll say it again: I just don’t buy it.
To assume that because they prefer Clinton to Obama they will therefore flock to McCain en masse is ludicrous.
Or even more bluntly, that a black man can beat white cadaver! LOL
So, on with the show, and pass the popcorn…
Possum- you may be straying into “too much information” territory there.
Welcome!
Kirri – my guess would be that disappointed Clinton supporters would be more likely to back McCain than disappointed Obama people. After all, she is much closer to the conservatives than he is with her positon on many issues: war, national (in)-security, regressive fuel policies etc etc. If you supported her, I would think McCain would possibly be your second choice. Whereas Obama is so far removed from the existing political structure that if he didn’t get it, I’d probably just stay home, as the outcome wouldn’t really make much difference in the long run.
News from the Kentucky Derby. Hillary’s horse ran second then broke down on the field and was put down.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/hillarys-horse.html
Jen at 284
I agree – its a case of ‘change in washington’ or ’status-quo’. Obama is the change candidate while both Clinton and McCain represent politics as usual – and my impression is that if Obama is not the candidate then it becomes a null event for a lot of the newly registered Obama supporters (or as you say, a stay-at-home moment).
284
Jen
Not by the time Obama has finished kicking McCain’s ass all over the country and reminded folk why their country is going down the toilet.
It would be a big leap from a Clinton/Obama policies to McCain’s, and Obama will be giving the voters a stark choice: more Bush, or something completely different.
All national polls show a huge majority saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, the Repblicans are on the nose and their incumbent is dragging his sorry ass along the floor of popularity polls.
Repubs just lost another seat, after 30 years, in Louisiana and it’s another blow to their strategy of reviling ‘liberals’.
Once the general campaign begins, I think you will see a very new flavour amongst Democrats who know that this time, their man can win. (Ok, or woman, if Hillary can kidnap a few busloads of supers and demands ransom!)
Catrina @ 279
I think that is a great article.
It’s a fascinatingly overlooked argument – that Clinton has run a campaign that has essentially marginalized the black vote, making it possible that what traditionally forms a large part of the democratic vote may be turned off by the attempt to essenitally wedge Obama on race.
Given that the black vote favours the Dems massively, it begs the question whether or not they would turn out for Hillary. I think that graph shows it would require a great effort from OBAMA to actually get the black vote out FOR clinton. Given her behviour, it would be a tough thing to ask him to do.
285
TurningWorm
A bad case of foot-in-mouth disease?
TurningWorm at 285
And it gets worse – the horse Obama backed came in at first place.
Appled Economics fart free explosion here…
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/carpenter/062
‘Now come 150 prominent economists from the nation’s finest universities to tell John McCain and Hillary Clinton that they are idiots.’
The Hornswoggling…stinks…
Any update on guam gate?
re#290
ah – synchronicity at it’s finest.
On this whole Obama/Clinton voters that wont vote in the General for the other candidate – it’s thrown up something interesting.
We know that there’s some chunk of Obama voters that wouldn’t vote in the election if Obama gets the nomination.
We also know that there’s some chunk of Clinton supporters that would vote for McCain if Obama got the nomination.
But if the rumours, anecdotes and whatnot are true that the Dem party at the top has started working with Obama on the presidential campaign proper – they would have done some serious sums, number crunching and serious focus group work to arrive at the point that Obama over Clinton is the way to go.
Because US voting is voluntary, not only the consequences of voters changing from Dem to Repub come into play, but also Dem and Repup voters not turning up to vote as well.
Thise Clinton voters that would switch to McCain were Obama to get the nomination are essentially worth twice the problem for the Dems as say an Obama voter not turning up to vote in the general election were Clinton to be nominated (where the former not only reduces the Dems vote by one, but adds one vote to the Repubs compared to an Obama supporter not voting just reducing the Dems vote by one with no other Repub benefit).
So if it’s true that the Dem party strategists are already going with Obama, that means some combination of the following has come out very strongly in their focus group work:
1) Obama looks likely to gain enough independent and moderate Republican voters to offset or partially offset the Clinton voters that would vote for McCain in a contest of Obama vs. McCain
2) The number of Obama supporters that are likely to not turn up and vote in the general if Clinton got the nomination is significant and…
3) There would be more parts of the Clinton vote that can be captured in the general election by targeted Democrat strategy running with Obama than there are parts of the Obama vote that can be captured by targeted Democrat strategy running with Clinton.
4) Obama wouldn’t mobilise the Republican base as much as a Clinton nomination would – meaning the Dems need to get out a smaller vote to win.
5) There are more ordinarily Republican constituents that would be open to a successful Dem political targeting strategy running with Obama than there are the same for Clinton. Which if true would be an interesting insight into the type of strategy the Dems under Obama are planning to run.
If the Dem party at the top is already working with Obama on the the pres campaign proper – some or all of those things would have to be happening in part or whole, to a fairly significant overall degree one would think.
catrina at 279, thanks for those figures. Funny how the Clinton camp, conservatives and MSM (are they all the one organisation now??!!) can try to form a narrative eg. Obama’s ratings dropping for white voters, when as you day, both approval and disapproval have gone up, ie. less undecideds
And Finns, while we are talking about abuse from both sides, you have to concede that most Obama supporters here have said they would much prefer Hillary to McCain. You and Ron on the other hand have refused to back Obama against McCain. I think this says more about you than any name-calling
Ah, the voice of psephological marsupial reason!
Possum, your analysis has a definite “you know it makes sense” ring to it. What is it with the Sep commentators that they possess such un-facility with simple statistics? In a land where everybody wants to be an expert, this is a dreadful disappointment, even though corporate/MSM interests are more vested than democratic.
Can’t wait for Obi to cut loose on the “best” the GOPpers could nominate. By popular acclaim, he’ll have the policy-befuddled warmonger, McBombster, for breakfast. Then Obi will get on with the job of guiding his nation and the planet through exceedingly perilous times.
That’s the dream; demo(the people)cracy(rule). Delivering it will be another matter entirely.
Good on you Possum, and congratulations.
Dunno if there’s been much mention of Louisiana today, but the Dems have a seat that has been held by the Reps for over three decades: http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/dems-add-to-majority-with-cazayoux-win-in-la.-2008-05-03.html. And on the back of an Obama-is-a-scary-liberal campaign too.
What were those mentions of Dean’s disasterous 50 state strategy?
Obama at $6 in Indiana remains the best bet since big forehead for the Liberal leadership at 6.
Ecky, it’s the case of the black man beating the white cadaver!
Thanks Poss, that’s exactly the way I’ve assumed it to be, and NOT a case of the Supers refusing to move away from Obama BECAUSE they would be seen as RACISTS!
That argument does not even pass the smell test, let alone a serious psephological one! A right howler as I said yesterday.
Bring it on…as the chimp said.
#288 – YHH – i can paraphrase you easily:
“It’s a fascinatingly overlooked argument – that Obama has run a campaign that has essentially marginalized the white vote, making it possible that what traditionally forms a large part of the democratic vote may be turned off by the attempt to essenitally wedge Hillary on race”
Why? Because the POTUS voting demographic is still roughly 83% white, 10% Black, 5% Hispanic, 2% Asian and Others. So there is 90% for Obama to marginalize and 10% for Hillary. So who do you think has more to lose?
“Around 337,000 North Carolinians have already voted in their state’s primary, a fraction that is likely to represent approximately one-quarter of the eventual turnout. According to some data mining done by the Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, around 38 percent of those voters have been black. As you’ll find from playing around with our prediction tool it is very hard for Obama to lose the state if black turnout winds up at 38 percent. Even if he “only” won the black vote 85-15, and lost the white vote 70-30 — he would still win the state by 2 points if black turnout was 38 percent. If we instead use the numbers from Survey USA’s most recent poll: Obama loses whites 61-30, but wins blacks 87-11 — he would win the state by 10 points given those turnout demographics. EDIT — the percentage of black voters is apparently 39.3% based on the very latest numbers.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/tarheel-tidbits.html
Finns, it aint a zero sum equation though, is it? Obama has obviously not marginalized whites, or he wouldn’t have won the whitest states along with the blackest. This is fact, not opinion. On the other hand, the Clintons have annoyed blacks with their craziness (’fairytale’, ‘Jesse Jackson’, Alabama comments, this latest robocall stuff – which seems to have created a spike in the black vote – should I go on?) and this is the 30-35% of the Democratic vote locked in first in any winning election.
Finns good to see the ‘thinkskin’ working, pity about the mojo, oh well…
The Poss said it all in #293: “Thise Clinton voters that would switch to McCain were Obama to get the nomination are essentially worth twice the problem for the Dems as say an Obama voter not turning up to vote in the general election were Clinton to be nominated (where the former not only reduces the Dems vote by one, but adds one vote to the Repubs compared to an Obama supporter not voting just reducing the Dems vote by one with no other Repub benefit)”
FINNS
Fair point. And its is fair to say that he has done something to marginalize the white working class vote (the bitter comments).
However, i think the Clinton campaign to this point has done more to antagonize this segment. And Pancho makes a fair point that it Obama has managed to maintain significant parts of the white vote in a way that Catrina showed that Clinton has not.
Come on Finns, it’s over. Here’s an article for you to consider though, by Andrew Sullivan, who has largely been a step ahead of the game all Primary season. His thesis:
‘Clinton simply cannot overcome the edge he built up in February and March, however cruel his April turned out to be. And the superdelegates — who will ultimately decide — have also been slowly trending his way.
…So what is she up to and what is Obama to do about it? There are three main theories behind Clinton’s refusal to acquiesce to mathematics: she simply cannot tolerate losing a nomination she believes she has a dynastic right to; she is trying to ensure that Obama loses in 2008 in order to run again herself in 2012; or she wants to be offered the vice-presidential spot on an Obama-led ticket. I’m beginning to suspect the last option is the most plausible, and it gives Obama a potential opening: why not give her what she wants? An Obama-Clinton ticket would certainly give the Democrats a massive sigh of relief — and perhaps some euphoria.’
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/andrew_sullivan/article3866584.ece
Seems, at face value, like a pretty bad idea to me, given the ‘Commander in Chief’ threshold line, her ‘electability’ stuff and that buffoon Bill. But it probably becomes a real option if things continue after Indiana.
#304 Amigo, you and i know that i can dig up counter articles to say that it is not over. so what’s the point. just wait and see what tuesday brings.
But not any counter maths or a pathway to the nomination.
Buth that aside, a Clinton supporter’s thoughts on a Clinton #2?
#303 – The last time the Dems won POTUS was someone called Bill Clinton in 1996. He won 49% of the votes made up of: 36% – Whites, 8.4% Black, 4% Hispanics, 0.6% others. I would say that the Hispanic votes would equal to the Black votes today.
So in the general election, the Black votes are not as critical as in the Primaries. It is still the white votes and the emerging Hispanic votes that will decide the election.
Two terms of the Grinning Chimp and his cohort of vile bastards later, and the ‘white’ vote will NOT be voting on colour.
David Brooks said it on Newshour the other day: ultimately an Obama/McCain contest will not be about race.
My joke about the black guy beating the white cadaver is more about the cadaver’s lineage than the tint of his opponent. In fact I’m taunting those who keep seeing this combination of contestants in those terms.
It isn’t.
A brief summary of the Repulican that lost in Louisiana:
For two decades, Mr. Jenkins has been one of the state’s best-known — and most polarizing — political figures. He led an effort in the Louisiana Legislature 18 years ago to enact the nation’s toughest anti-abortion laws, which tore the state’s politics apart. He was the Legislature’s most outspoken across-the-board opponent of taxes and government spending.
…I guess he’s ‘bitter’ now! LOL
The Dem was also a social conservative, but despite the Repuggly attack on him as a ‘liberal’ and a Pelosi hugging commie -scum-tax-and-spender, the Repugglies lost.
Who’d have thunk it?
Roll on November.
Pancho at 304, surely Hillary is smart enough to see the maths. I think she cannot accept that this nomination is not hers, so hasnt pulled out yet. I dont want to believe she wants to destroy Obama’s chances for president so she could run in 2012, surely she’s not that evil.
(While waiting for train from Nuremberg to Berlin)
Andrew Sullivan is sometimes right but often wrong, as one would expect from someone who tries to be a gay catholic conservative libertarian Republican all at once. I think he is wrong here. I think Clinton’s motive is none of the above: it is that she genuinely believes that Obama’s nomination would hand the election to McCain. She is far from alone in that view.
Of course the delegate arithmetic is against Clinton. But if she wins IN comfortably and either wins NC or comes close, the writing will be on the wall – Obama is going down in flames. Then the supers will be forced to choose between their fear of being labelled racists and their duty to the Democratic Party. I suspect not enough of them will have the courage to do what they ought to do, and that Obama will indeed be nominated.
Now, a lot can happen between May and November. Maybe Bush’s odium will be enough to get any Democrat elected. But given McCain’s record of independence from Bush, I doubt that. Iraq and the economy are both working against him, but the Repubs have a proved record of winning white working-class voters on cultural conservatism issues regardless of “objective” considerations.
Obama has left himself wide open to attack from this angle. He is now doubly damned as an upper class white liberal elitist AND as an angry-black-grievance-monger. White working-class voters don’t like either of these types. Given his ineptitude so far, I doubt Obama has the skills to get out of this box and win crucial states like OH, PA and MI.
Adam:
“Then the supers will be forced to choose between their fear of being labelled racists and their duty to the Democratic Party. I suspect not enough of them will have the courage to do what they ought to do, and that Obama will indeed be nominated”
You just cannot be serious!
Like I said, how many homophobes cross dress for fear of being labelled homophobes?
It is, not to put too fine a point on it, bollocks.
PS How was the rally?
sorry to change the subject, but I’ve been wondering is there an ‘Eden-Monaro’ predictor in the primaries?
I didn’t understand the analogy last time and I still don’t. Why don’t you address the point of substance instead of making your usual cheap and stupid remarks?
The rally was quite scary actually. When I arrived on Thursday evening, the neo-Nazis had just finished their May Day rally, and the station was full of beefy ugly guys wearing Nazi tee-shirts (but no swastikas, which gets them instantly arrested and roughed up by the Bavarian riot police, who are not to be messed with). I was later told it was the biggest neo rally here for ten years. Few of them are native Nurembergers, however. They are mostly unemployed from the former East – products of a fine socialist education.
314
Jen
It’s called the delegate count Jen. Unless all those lily-livered “don’t call me racist” Supers chicken out and flock to the Clintons for a re-run of the HillBilly show! LOL
Can of worms Jen! Wait for the Clintonian pile on…
Another topic still, a Clinton race/gender piece you might like: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080519/betsyreed
315
Adam Carr
“your usual cheap and stupid remarks?”
That’s a class line coming from you buster!
But what would I know, I’m just an “ignorant loathing leftie”.
You insist on this argument that the Supers are all wimpy little liberals who don’t want the opprobrium of turning down a weak candidate because he’s their token nigga?
That’s absurd, and if you don’t know it, then someone should tell you.
So I did.
Adam, a nice train ride mught help calm your hysteria. Obama will beat McCain easily
Adam, did you catch any of the discussion about the Russian mob, the Liminov crew?
They have that Nazi motiff with an odd Russian twist, but are actually leftwing agitators against Putin’s thugs.
All very inverted and weird, but a scary phenomena if you meet in on the streets. Putin’s troopers would be worse, but there’s so many angry young men that it would seem another wave of fascism could never be far away if things got desperately ugly (ie world recession).
Not according to current polling, Andrew, and the Repubs haven’t even started on him yet.
As Adam would know, the reason Hillary is not getting out is because her backers and power bases won’t let her. that’s how big politics works.
Mobs like AIPAC don’t take losing too easily.
There’s been little need for the Republicans to do so Adam, as Hillary has been doing their job for them.
It’s been less than a stella job, needless to say.
Actually Adam, a good case can be made that the Republicans have already started on Obama. After Hillary’s win in PA, the RNC sent out 18 emails about Obama through the following Monday, and none about Hillary. Add to this elements like Limbaugh’s ‘project chaos’, FOXs looping of Wright, and the neo-con press elements’ disdain for Obama generally, and you can conclude that he has pretty much been copping a drubbing for several fronts (some inside the Democratic Party) for the good part of a couple of months now.
And he still leads McCain in the General polling, according to the RCP averages (http://realclearpolitics.com/). Add to this the fact that Obama does not yet have the DNC (officially) campaigning and spending for him, along with the fact that this polling is being distorted by its three cornered nature, and I reckon Obama is looking pretty good.
Harry, so far as I know AIPAC is very happy with all three candidates.
Clinton has been handling Obama with great restraint all things considered. The Wright and “bitter” imbroglios are all his own work. What will happen when the Repubs wheel out their dirt machine? He’ll be blown off the park. Non-elite white voters will defect in droves.
That’s all for now.
Clinton hasn’t thrown all that she could have, but polling has also showed that every time she has gone particularly negative, she has lost ground.
She has also had a pretty easy run, because of the campaign that Obama has been running. She has tried to goad him into a response to undermine his claims to new politics, and he has kept a lot back that he could have thrown. This article previews some of what Obama could, and the Republicans could, use on Hillary: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10010.html.
Reps would…
Hey Pancho-
posted the same link in the early hours of the morning, but appreciate the thought.
Adam, political differences aside for a moment the neo-nazi thing sounds very scary. Seeing racism in all its reality is a remimder of where we can so easily go i guess. Let’s hope whoever wins can stop this scourge once and for all.
321
Adam Carr Says:
May 4th, 2008 at 7:56 pm
Not according to current polling, Andrew, and the Repubs haven’t even started on him yet.
But, if we read Possum’s arguments at 273 and 293 we can claim that the ‘current polling’ tells us no such thing.
Once again, Adam Carr is arguing that Hillary Clinton is the best candidate because he says she is.
That’s his opinion, and he’s got every right to it. I just don’t think the line about Supers being scared to drop the black guy makes any sense on 2 fronts:
1. Politicians have NO shame! LOL In other words, they’d drop him like a hot potato if they did not think he’d further their careers. Call me racist, they’d say, and move right along.
2. Supers are reading polls too, and they can see that Obama is a threat to McCain in more than a couple of swing states. OK, it’s got risks, but Obama does not carry consistent negative polling like Clinton.
Supers hiding behind the black guy because they’re too sensitive to criticism is absurd, and the line of only blacks and white northern liberals will support Obama is Carr’s argument from the beginning. He told all of the ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ they’d be crying by Feb 5th.
Oh, well, he may be wrong, but at least he’s been consistently wrong.
AIPAC don’t own Obi’s ass.
He hasn’t taken 1 cent from them.
They, and others, do “own” Billary and Bomb Bomb though.
330
HarryH
The AIPAC stance may be officially one thing, but the New York Sun (read the ultra-right sons of David), run a more, how shall we say, nuanced line:
http://www2.nysun.com/article/70615
…it’s Hagar the Horrible, and is exactly your point.
331 KR
They are petrified of Obama and what he means to their ownership of Washington…hence the frenzied attacks throught the “Right” media lately.
I mentioned a few days ago it will be interesting to see what Obama does with Republican guys like Hagel and a few others during the General Election.
Foreign Policy and Iraq and its tentacles will be a huge part of this election.
The people hate it. Most Democrats, most Independants and a fair portion of Republicans.
Obama plus Dean and Pelosi and Gore and Edwards Dems plus independants(maybe Bloomberg) plus antiwar Repugs will be a powerful force ganging up on the old Bombmeister and his neocon rabble.
A change is coming.
KR as I said last night Rain’s ‘theft’ = ownership = no reply = wait till I find a finny spin spot etc…
& on & on & on…
Btw where’s GG? Mission Guam? Lol!
Funny how both Glen and GG are quiet.
I think Obama is keeping the negative stuff for the real fight against McCain.
Right now he’s in the crossfire between both Clinton and McCain. This is his low point.
After the May 20 primaries I he’ll will lift a gear and start claiming victory on pledged delgates and putting pressure on the supers (if they have not already moved in numbers).
Once the nom is in the bag and the democratic party is onside he’ll lift again in his attack on McCain. At that point we’ll start to see exactly why the republicans are so worried about him. My guess is the POTUS polls will be 5-10 points more favourable than now.
Right now he’s keeping his powder dry and running the clock down. It looks lame, makes Clinton supporters think they have a chance, but its the best strategy for the end game.
I’m a bit worried about Grinch-
Maybe he joined the Synchronised Swimming Team without proper rehearsals or nose clips.
I think Glen some obtuse farewell until September the other night – maybe he went backpacking in Europe with the other teenagers on the KonTiki tour.
“The Louisville Courier-Journal — the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana — has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky primaries.”
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/4/6335/02750/813/508722
I agree WTR.
It also reinforces his stance that he doesn’t want to sink to the depths of the usual political shitfight. If the guy looks slightly annoyed the MSM comes out in force, so if he started slinging the mud like The Clampetts or the Repugs they would make a meal out of him being “just another dirty politician”. The more he rises above the fray the more sincere (and different) he looks, while Billary and McCain become more fused.
Latest Zogby tracking has Obama in the lead by 2% in Indiana (43-41). But MOE of 4.1%. Starting to look good for my money at $6.20 (If it comes in the beers are on me).
And after just checking the betting markets: Things are getting closer in Indiana…. Obama is into $3 (halving from last night… That is not bad in a day).
… but the graph looks dire
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html
What is it with Zogby? They’re always such a beautiful set of numbers for we Obama supporters….So good that they just seem too good to be true. How reliable have they been?
Ferny-
of all the pollsters on RCP which is the one that has proven to be closest to the actual results. (I guess I could work it out myself, but pretty sure someone else has…)
Ahh… there is still a mass uncertainity (13%)….. If he wins there, it is game over….
There’s been some slight movement (which is really no movement at all) in the RCP averages this afternoon:
The national RCP average has moved another 0.1 since this morning to a 1.5% lead to Obama. That’s up from 1.3% yesterday.
Indiana has moved Hillary’s lead down 0.2 to 5.8 from 6% this morning.
NC remains static on 7% lead to Obama.
These moves are nothing of course – but they may be an indication that Obama’s freefall has bottomed out. Tomorrow will tell.
341
Ferny Grover
Don’t quote me Ferny, I couldn’t be bothered to look it up, but weren’t Zogby way out in NH?
Wasn’t everybody? LOL
Do any of them (polls) ever get close, or are we all avidly watching a complete fabrication dreamed up the MSM to keep us glued to their sites/ papers etc?
Surely someone out there must have a better idea than the PB posters?
I, for one, have none at all apart from gut-feeling and my own opinion.
so, if that’s as good as we get…
I call it for Obama, with Hillary as attorney general, and the GOP getting the thumping they deserve- bit like what happened here really.
332
HarryH
It’s a tough act, keeping AIPAC and the Zionist Neocons (is there any other brand?? LOL) happy, and yet signalling to the vast majority of liberal J3ws in the USA that you support Israel’s right to exist, but not it’s right to imprison the Palestinians and starve them.
What the Neocons have done is hijack the agenda and force everyone to accept that their extreme rightwing view is what the majority of Israelis and the US diaspora think.
This is a lie, they do not. But saying so in the US can get you lynched by AIPAC and it’s rottweillers.
333
codger
ya know what codge, you’ve got a point.
It reminds me of George, getting the Palestinians to vote, applauding the concept of democracy for the towel heads, until of course they voted for Hamas.
Man, democracy really_sucks when they don’t vote for your choice!
So Obama is ’stealing’ Clinton’s prize.
Of course he ain’t doing it by himself. Several hundred party people, ALL white northern liberals apparently (except for the black ones! LOL) are helping him!
The freakin’ aw-bloody-dacity!!! Codge, this is a crime!
Onya Jen, I love your determined belief in the inevitable triumph of good over evil!
On Zogby, I recal Rain’s comments last night that Zogby is owned by a guy whose brother is an Obama supporting SD. Hence, she argued, Zogby’s polls are biased towars Obama.
For an organisation whose business success relies on the accuracy of its product, it seems like an odd business plan to trash your reputation to keep a relative happy. And ultimately what purpose does it serve when you’re proven to look like a goose on election day? Lots of disappointed paper happy to add to the piles of egg on your face.
Like the Chewbaka defence – it makes no sense!!
There are new groups like J Street popping up in New York preparing to take on AIPAC.
The majority of American Jews and Israeli Jews do not want AIPAC representing them.
A year ago i didn’t think the downfall of AIPAC and it’s influence on Washington could happen but maybe, just maybe we are seeing it.
Starting with Mearsheimer and Walt’s essay and now well funded Jewish groups like J Street and the upcoming AIPAC trial are portending dark clouds for them.
Obama could just very well usher in a realist Foreign Policy that gives Israel its deserved protection , but is even handed.
There is, after all, no other sane option.
349
paper = people…..unless the people is Jacky Paper.
Think I’ll go pack to Puffing the magic Dragon now
Ferny
Polling companies have little integrity. It is fairly obvious they are becoming mere Party instruments…within the margin of error of course +/- 10% lol
Rasmussen are clear Republican urgers
Susa are clear Clinton urgers
Zogby are clear Obama urgers
and on it goes….until their final polls, which is what they’re judged on.
Cynical…but hey, if you’ve been watching polls like all us have, the trend becomes obvious.
Black liberation theology, Wright, MLK and all that:
What about his statement about — and he repeated it again on Monday — about the U.S. government putting the AIDS virus in the African-American community?
Some may regard that as a trope for known, unjust practices, unjust medical practices against people of color.
Such as in Tuskegee?
Such as the Tuskegee experiments. Or America’s complicity in Agent Orange. Or the American government’s longtime denial of Gulf War syndrome. So that kind of becomes a rhetorical trope which is a heuristic shorthand for all of that — for a failed healthcare system in America and failure to do anything about it. And while people may viscerally disagree with Rev. Wright’s claim there, and while it may be clearly undocumented and unfounded, you’re also talking about a man who had an HIV/AIDS outreach ministry to African-Americans, as well as gays and lesbians, in the 1980s, when the president of the United States, Ronald Reagan, wouldn’t even say the word in public.
…good interview in Salon for those who want to see past the YouTube moments and get some history.
“The Louisville Courier-Journal — the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana — has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky primaries.”
Pancho, this endorsement will bring a smile to The Louisville Lip, formerly Cassius Clay and for 41 years, Mohammed Ali.
There’s a fantastic story surrounding the large print That Obi has of “The Greatest” in his Chicago Law office “front of house”. I told it several months ago in detail here, but the print is of the moment(s) when Ali got some serious respect from his opponent who had tried to belittle Ali’s newly adopted name. Same sort of respect that Barack Hussein Obama is about to get in 2008, forty one years later.
Cutting to the chase, Ali’s opponent refused to come out for the ninth round, Ali could have put Tyrell away in the fourth but he had a point to prove to “Uncle Tom” Tyrell and the white world in general.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=6DefCmUsCPs&feature=related
Remember a large print of the “What’s my name, Uncle Tom!?” moment is on OBi’s law firm waiting-room wall. Americans take notice of stuff like that. Even Rocky Balboa supporters.
Any thoughts on the Guam results?
With the high military population and relatively low median income I figured it would be another Hillary win. I was surprised that Obama led the whole night.
By the time I went to bed, The Kid has been keeping a lead of roughly 100 all evening. I awoke to find he had won 2 thirds of the districts (14 of 21) but had only won by 7 votes.
Ferny – do the military vote in Guam or as absentees in their US states?
354
Enemy Combatant
I’d forgotten that. Great clip.
Liberation pugnaciousness.
Actually, one of the saddest things I’ve read in all this has been a superficial anaylsis of the Guam vote which argued that Clinton was disadvantaged because the place had the smallest proportion of people over 65 in any race yet. Yes, of course, we all know that the oldies have ben favouring Hillary. What seemed to escape (or be irrelevant) to the journo making this commentary was the fact that people in Guam tend not to live past 65.
Robert B.
Good thought. Guamans (is that what they’re called?) can’t vote in the general, but only in the primary. The military must vote absentee.
Ripper piece on the double standard:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/opinion/04rich.html?hp
…that pretends to examine Obama/Wright but ignores McCain/Hagee and his erstwhile friends Falwell and Robertson.
We’ve been over this, but Rich shovels right down into the muck that passes for journalism but is, in essence, unmitigated racism and partisan pandering.
McCain gets asked about calling his wife a c–t:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080501/NEWS/80501035
…in front of an audience!
Macca goes stunned mullet, questioner gets taken outside for some questioning.
Ain’t politics a funny business!
Yesterday or the day before (or even maybe a day before that) we were talking about the Clinton bable on Iran and how this played as a large negative in the geopolitical spectrum. While you may have heard it here at PB first – the subject has raised it’s ugly head over on the TPM.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/obama_hillarys_touth_talk_towa.php
Barak Obama’s final add before the contests in Indiana and North Carolina
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1534611156
Its only 12:23 on the east coast – so its reasonable to assume anything can happen in th next few hours – but as far as the morning is concerned, it’s a draw, Hillary +1, Obama +1. Hillary Clinton captured DNC Robert Martinez (TX) while Parris Glendening (MD) goes for Obama. I.e. numbers as far as the lead don’t change – but the number of opportunities drops by 2 – and when you do the analysis, its more pain for Hillary than it is for Barack.
And so – the core numbers give 21 advantage Clinton (same as yesterday):
Obama: 248
Clinton: 269
And with the Pelosie contingent, advantage Clinton by 13 (same as yesterday):
Obama: 255
Clinton: 268
Enemy Combatant at 354
You had me all worried, investigating, and researching all sorts of things as a result of your #354 comment. I may be young, and while I have not read “Uncle Tom’s Cabin”, your reference to Tyrell immediately placed me in a difficult moment – was the name Tyrell a synonym of Tyrell as in the Tyrell Corporation and the obvious parallels between race relations and retirement. So that got me digging into all sorts of background information because in part it made so much sense. But what really hurts is that in my investigations I discover that the spelling is different – the guy in the fight spells his name differently to the the guy heading in the corporation – and at this moment or realization I hit a brick wall (and it was painful). As a consequence I have to push you PB rating down by two points but all the same – I’m stuck with a valid argument – bugger – life sucks.
Happy May Day, Bludgers.
Sat. May 3: John Yoo and Alberto Gonzalez meet Mickey and Mallory.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AmWc1HAj0aPW_O.ugdiUg.wxvTYC
Sun. May 4: Don’t worry, folks, McBombster is the GOPper medic-in-waiting.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AiK0W2xknHa8lyHLfsf6o.AxvTYC
Sun.May 4: The Ascent of Guys; from Primordial Swamp to Jocular Cave.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AuWYhngddHlDV18OWnESUPfV.i8C
Catrina at 365, my PB rating drops by 2 by you. That’s nice. At least you havn’t relegated me to deathwatch!
In a nutshell, Ali was not treated with due nominal respect by his opponent. Tyrell insisted on publicly calling Ali by his “slave name”. Things were bad enough with whitey “grinnin’ in your face” in Louisville and Memphis and elsewhere in the Land of the Free, but enduring the oppobrium of another black man who was acting in a racist manner(ie. as an Uncle Tom; keeping his fellow “jigs” in order for Massa) was not ignored by “The Greatest”. In the aftermath of the “sweet science” contest, Ali gained not only a win from the fight, but some respect for himself and his people from a wider mix of Americans. The lesson was not lost on Obi.
Race is the elephant in the room in this election. And the pacyderm is not exclusively GOPper as evidenced by the slurs of Brutusina and her boosters on Obama. There are indications that a majority of Americans are ready to move on from the days of slavery, Jim Crow, irrational xenophobia and ethnically and pigmentally induced prejudice. The election of Barack Hussein Obama as POTUS 44, would usher much of that irrational hate from the hearts, souls and minds of 21st century Americans.
Last night I read all three Op Ed pieces in the NY Times, Dowd, rich, Friedman, and if you didn’t know that the NYT had endorsed Clinton for the Democratic nomination, then you would not have discovered it by reading those articles.
Friedman’s article is essentially a lament for where the USA has gone off the rails, lost its mojo and been driven by idiots into the swamp. And to those who think inspiring a generation to get involved in politics, to make a committment to improve things is no small thing. It’s as pro-Obama as one could be without saying so.
Rich derides the rightwing racism and free passes to the Republicans, and Dowd is more scathing of CLinton than Obama.
It proves nothing, but it’s the zeitgeist moving towards the kid.
Ecky
Greenwald asks if this is a reprise of 1988 and Lee Atwater’s Rovian playbook. Good piece, you’ll enjoy it:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/05/04/1988/
In his younger days as a soccer player for Lafayette Parish, the “Ragin’ Cajun”, Little Jimmy Carville, demonstrated a great deal of promise as a ball distributor.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/carville-if-hillary-gave_n_100038.html
FG, looks like you correctly picked the polling trough yesterday:
‘CBS) Democrat Barack Obama appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright, according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51 percent to 40 percent. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.
Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50 percent to 38 percent.’
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/05/04/opinion/polls/main4069259.shtml
370
Pancho
It’s not the sh!t that gets thrown at you, it’s how you bat it.
Those who claim that this will hurt him in November are not paying attention. Clinton is defusing McCain’s bombs before he even gets a chance to throw them himself.
Onya Hill.
From the same poll re the gas tax holiday:
By 49-45, respondents think it’s a bad idea. This includes Dems (50-47) and Independents (60-32) but not Reps (37-58). Of course this could be the phenomenon of lying to pollsters about tax cuts showing through, but at face value, it looks like bad policy and bad politics by Hillary.
369
Enemy Combatant
Funny how Clinton and her proxies are going easy on Obama, eh? As Herr Doktor claimed last night, Clinton is being gentle with the kid! LOL
As if.
So now the new trope is Obama is a castrated nigga, just the kind of eunuch to inspire hope, huh?
(By the way, the same line got trotted out at some factory show of Hills, so they are peddling the theme)
Straight out of Rove: play the balls, not the man’s policies.
Desperate times, etc etc.
Alien monsters at least go for the head, not the genitals.
369 EC
Carville and his deadshit wife would have to be the ugliest couple in America…and i’m not talking about physical appearance.
Just imagine their dinner parties…1 night Jimmy takes them to plot with The Clampetts … and the next night Mary takes them to plot with Dick and Elizabeth Cheney.
Pass the Bucket
Further to that KR, (this may have already got a mention?) from the Weekly Standard:
‘And what caused this display of intense irritation? She’s running a right-wing campaign. She’s running the classic Republican race against her opponent, running on toughness and use-of-force issues, the campaign that the elder George Bush ran against Michael Dukakis, that the younger George Bush waged in 2000 and then again against John Kerry, and that Ronald Reagan–”The Bear in the Forest”–ran against Jimmy Carter and Walter F. Mondale. And she’s doing it with much the same symbols.
…And better–or worse–she is becoming a social conservative, a feminist form of George Bush.’
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/063kvafy.asp?pg=2
Interesting poll on gas tax Pancho.
Is McCain wedging himself and Clinton me tooing? (There’s an expression that’s gone off the radar lately!)
Republicans, if they keep this pathological aversion to taxes will end up as the loony rightwing party exlusively. Maybe they should go and live in a few countries where tax collection is not performed, and bribery and corruption usually take its place.
It’s the Reagan myth flying too close to the sun of reality. Good to see Hillary chasing McCain into the thin air.
Harry,Pancho et al,
It’s becoming clear that all this plays into Obama’s message: Washington is mired in the wrong politics and treats the punters like dumbarsed morons, appealing to the lowest common denominator.
They are dancing his tune, and more and more people will start to see it exactly that way.
It’s brilliant, absolutely brilliant.
I’m giving Glenn’s piece four stars, Kirri. If Team Obi arn’t prepared to deal with, nay trump, any Atwater/Turd Blossom-type smears then they are not ready to govern.
Now Brutusina’s mob are desperately trying to float the “nuclear option” in trying to gouge a bodgie delegate advantage. The Kid needs a solid performance on Tuesday to STFU his Dem detractors, relegate Her Stridency to sigle digits on Slate’s deathwatch, and show some Robert Downey “IronMan” Junior insouciance to the GOPpers and PNAC-people.
Nutshelling it with Ari Kaufman:
“Either way, it will be the most exciting primary election week in Indiana since Bobby Kennedy won here in May 1968.”
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/will-indiana-save-hillary/
Good morning Bludgers,
Qld is enjoying a day off for Labour Day. The old union slogan was “8 hours work, 8 hours play, 8 hours sleep, 8 bob a day.” “Ridiculous! The Establishment cried” (including business, the church and most politicians at the time). “They’ll rise above their station!”
We’re still rising.
Anyways, there’s been some movement on RCP averages. After creeping up from 1.3 to 1.4 to 1.5 in the national averages over the course of yesterday, Obama had leapt to 2.9% of Hillary overnight. This is largely due to a CBS/NYT poll showing Obama back at his pre-Wright figures of 12 points clear of Hillary. Rasmussen has them tied over the same period and Gallup has Obama up by 4.
Indiana and NC are unchanged on 5.8 and 7 respectively.
That’s 5.8 to Clinton and 7 to Obama respectively
Annie Oakley boobs while tryin to keep it real with guns: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Clinton_mailings_gun_gaffe.html
Again, go Democrat! Keep plumbing those depths…
There’s something funny going on at Politico. Ben Smith seems to have given up on being Hillary’s press release agent and is now pro-Obama. It’s a bit like the GG endorsing the Ruddster. I found his coverage of Hillary’s very good win in Pennsylvania quite muted as well. Either his bosses have told him to pull his head in or he’s decided that when the real campaign starts (on June 15th?), he want’s Obi’s supporters to use his site.
And just to remind everyone of the PB Hillary ConcessionWatch. I’m not sure how Pancho and HarryH are feeling…
JV – 23 April @ 1000
Jen – 24 April @ 1000
Dyno – 24 April @ 1400
EC – 25 April @ 0900
HarryH- 7 May @ 1200
Pancho – 8 May @ 1200
Ferny – 3 June @ 2145
Asanque- 10 June @ 1400.
Diogenes- NEVER
I’m thinkin’ Asanque is the favourite
The great gun non-debate is about form rather than substance. See a href=”http://laborview.blogspot.com/2008/05/shooting-first-democrat-candidates-gun.html”>Shooting first: the Democrat candidates gun policies for more.
I suspect the primaries will be like Guam, no help. Barack usually does better in caucuses.
I must admit I am now getting to the point where I hope Obama wins quickly from here and Clinton gives up. I just read on John Quiggan’s blog that Clinton has repeated McCain’s loopy “gas tax holiday” promise. This puts her at odds with democrat policy on what (to me) is a key issue. She is really getting desperate for the SUV/bumpkin vote and saying anything to get it. I’m quite dissappointed. Mind, given Al Gore’s view and those of a number of super-delegates, this might cost her plenty of their support anyway. A stupid move.
See
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2008/05/03/holiday-from-sanity/
Well, rub it in there Digenes. A small burst of enthusiasm and I’ll forever be humiliated!
Not as badly as The Clampetts, by all accounts though.
i’m feeling better than jv,jen,dyno and EC…but not as good as ferny or asanque lol
Dio, she will concede before the middle of June though.
Hey, if Obama wins NC by double digits and scrapes home in Indiana , me and Pancho are still a chance.
In saying that i think Billary will scrape home in Indi.
prediction
NC: 55-45 Obama
IN: 51.5 – 48.5 Clinton
Decisive delegate gain to Obama
On we go with the slow inexorable death of the Clinton/Bush era of gutter trawling politics.
The polls have improved for Hillary.
Hillary on the comparative National polls has a clear. 3.4% over McCain.
Hillary on the comparative States polls that decide POTUS has a clear lead
over Obama. Estimating the likely POTUS requires these as a key starting factor
Hillary leads the popular vote in all Primarys of registered Democrats by 121,000
and Hillary has won most of the crucial big electoral vote States whilst Obama’s delegate lead rests on his wins in mostly unwinnable ‘red’ States
All SD’s can see the stats & demographics etc etc favor Hillary over Obama. Obama’s likely delegate race win of 51% to 49% is so close it may as well be a tie in terms of Democrats credibly endorsing Obama.
The Liberal zealots for Hewson’s GST had the same zealotry as Obama supporters & wouldnt listen to political reality ansd also lost an unlosable election they believed was impossible to lose. And Keating smiled,as must McCain
If we’re going to compare it to Australian issues, i see it more like the YRAW support at the previous election. Grassroots action, clear refutation of politics of current regime, popular leader consistently under attack for his past associations.
lol
387 Jen
I’m putting it down to your idealistic personality type. As I’ve pointed out before, the further you go down the list of PBs, the more bitter, disillusioned and cynical they become. I may be wrong but I don’t believe her campaign chairman about it being over by June 15th, unless she is offered VP. But then again, I’m a cold hard cynical bastard. If only I had a dollar for every time someone said that to me!
Diogenes, I also don’t think she will concede unless she is offered something by the party, which really amounts to be being pushed out.
I guess I’m another cynical bastard, at least when it comes to Hillary.
It’s the ENFP in me Diogs, (same as Obi)!
It’s that profession of yours Diog – it tends to make cynics of people. But you’re really a frustrated idealist ‘aint ya!
And hey! I’m down the end!!
Ron, your analogy fails because of your silly assumption about Obama supporters being zealous.
This is the BIG mistake by Hillary and the Republicans. By dismissing Obama’s support as either mass hysteria, brainwashing, or some kind of deception on Obama’s part, Hillary failed to detect the underlying sentiments of a large portion of the U.S. population, and has paid bitterly for it by not being able to gain enough support to get the nomination.
It’s like last year when Howard dismissed Rudd’s support as a result of Australians simply playing a joke on him, which was then followed up with Abbott’s belief that Australians were “sleepwalking their way to the polls” and would therefore vote Liberal once they snapped out of their slumber.
It’s pure arrogance. Also very condescending. And look what happened to the Liberals last year – thoroughly defeated.
What you guys need to remember is the point about the remaining uncommitted SD’s that one of them themselves said.
Obama only needs about 80 or so more SD’s to get him over the line.
You can bet your self interested SD ass that these Supers don’t want to be left irrelevant to the eventual winner.
When Obi gets down to about 50 needed there will be a mad rush among the remaining waverers to become relevant.
Oh, so Dio, you wanna get rich, eh?
“If only I had a dollar for every time someone said that to me!”
You cold hard cynical bastard, you!!
———————-
God I love it when you talk like a Commie, Ferny.
FG: [“Ridiculous! The Establishment cried” (including business, the church and most politicians at the time). “They’ll rise above their station!”
We’re still rising.]
Ferny
A Cynic is “an idealist whose rose-colored glasses have been removed, snapped in two and stomped into the ground, immediately improving his vision.”
And most doctors start out as idealists but it gets beaten out of us.
And I’m including you as someone who is a humanist who thinks we can do better than we are, which is pretty close to being a Cynic.
Noocat- didn’t you know we are all naive, dreaming, Obamabots with no idea about the real world, following a man who simply speaks in fairytales, and we are all too stupid to see through it. Just like we were stupid enough to fall for the “inexperienced Rudd” over the veteran politician JWH. And long will we regret it.
Just ask Tony Abbott.
EC – if you can’t speak like a Commie on the Labour Day holiday, when can you?! It’s a bloody tradition!
Diog: Doctors start out ans idealists – and then what? They realise they’re just a franchise of Big Pharmaceutical Inc? Nah…most doctors I know (like most lawyers) still have a belief, albeit battered and bruised, that they are doing some good with their lives.
We may not be able to change the world – but we can change somebody’s – and we can do that often. So we change the world one person at a time.
See! Still an idealist at 46. Life may have taught me some realism, but I won’t surrender to mediocrity and the deification of self-interest. It’s MUSCULAR idealism that’s needed Dr Diogs.
But if you didn’t believe that you’d be pitching for Clinton.
This is how things appear in RonWorld.
“389
Ron Says:
May 5th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
The polls have improved for Hillary.”
And gee, whaddya know, in the Real World where the NYT editoriaslised its support of HRC and CBS is well, CBS or standard fare MSM……. this is the way things are actually breaking.
NB, Ron, these sources are NOT Leftist.
“NYT/CBS Poll: Obama Rebounds Nationally
Sen. Barack Obama “appears to have rebounded from some of the damage caused by the controversy surrounding his former pastor Rev. Jeremiah Wright,” according to the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.
“On one key measure, Obama has seen a big reversal since his denunciation of Wright’s remarks on Tuesday. He now leads presumptive Republican nominee John McCain in the hypothetical fall contest by eleven points, 51% to 40%. That compares to a tied match-up in a CBS News/New York Times poll that was released last Wednesday.”
“Positive assessments of how Obama has handled the situation with Wright are also reflected by a continued lead over fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton in his battle for their party’s nomination. Among Democratic primary voters (those who have voted or plan to vote in a Democratic primary) Obama’s lead over Clinton has increased — he now leads Clinton by twelve points, 50% to 38%. That’s up from his eight point lead in the poll released just a few days ago.”
source: politicalwire.com
Jen, it’s just denial. Hillary supporters say Obama has deceived everyone, therefore stealing the nomination, because it allows them to preserve a feeling of superiority in the face of defeat.
But all this will be long forgiven and forgotten when Obama is president and the cynics finally see the world is better for it.
Obama now has on his site a countdown of pledged delegates that he needs to 50%+1. By all estimates this will be on May 20 after the Oregon vote. At this stage any ‘Pelosi Club’ members can be counted for Obama, and playing divisive narratives becomes very dangerous for Hillary (if she’s still about by then). Another great realist political maneuver played by the idealist Obama team, while Hillary flails about with guns and gas tax holidays.
EC’s Quote of the Week:
“The lioness of Chappaqua is hot on the trail of the Chicago gazelle, eager to gnaw him to pieces, like a harrowing scene out of a George Stubbs painting.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/04/opinion/04dowd.html?hp
“He (Stubbs) became obsessed with the theme of a wild horse threatened by a lion and produced several variations on this theme.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Stubbs
Pancho at 404
Do you have a link?
Sorry Catrina: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php, with numbers down the right. 133 PDs currently required, 276 in total for the nomination.
Ron @ 389:
“Hillary leads the popular vote in all Primarys of registered Democrats by 121,000″.
Prove it, please. Oh, wait a minute, here we are:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Of the 6 options available, you’ve quoted the one which includes the results from Michigan, which Hillary (a fine, upstanding electable candidate) won against Obama (a loopy leftie so disorganised he couldn’t even get on the ballot) by a casual 328,309 to nil. Even the Hillary-bashers would have to admit that’s a pretty comprehensive thumping, huh?
Face it. The best that Hillary supporters can do is to say that she might yet win the popular vote if Puerto Rico is a landslide and she has a casual “miracle” or two elsewhere (as Mr Kondracke puts it: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_cant_win_popular_vote.html ).
Fact: in all Democratic primaries awarding delegates (which, by a spooky coincidence, are also all the Democratic primaries in which the 2 candidates campaigned), Obama leads the vote count by a casual half a mill. By putting in spurious and deliberately misleading ’stats’, you just make her supporters look as desperate as they no doubt are.
I also love the line: “Obama’s likely delegate race win of 51% to 49% is so close it may as well be a tie.” The 2000 and 2004 presidential elections were so close that the two sides might as well call them a tie, huh? Now I think of it, likewise the 2005 AFL grand final. The Swans should have invited Ben Cousins to share the glory, after all.
No point in Obama supporters kidding themselves. The events of the last couple of weeks have significantly increased his chances of being poleaxed by McCain in the white rural parts of swing states in November. But to Hillary supporters: so what? Complaining in effect that ‘the people should wake up and realise that Obama will be crushed by the GOP machine’ is just a campaign slogan. It doesn’t answer the question, “What possible sequence of events could unfold that would result in Clinton getting 2024 delegates’ votes at the convention?” So after a while, it just makes you sound like Ron Paul supporters; who as far as anyone knows, are still out there blogging that the scales will fall from the people’s eyes any minute now.
SimonH and EC, why do you bother rebutting Ron’s post. Dont you get it- The Math Dont Matter, this nomination is Hillary’s
BTW counting Michigan, which the candidates agreed not to run in, and Obama not being on the ballot, is about as desparate and sneaky as it gets
Andrew – not only did they agree, the DNC asked them to take their names off the ballot. Some interesting comments from a Clinton leaning SD and member of Rules and Bylaws here: http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/05/rbc-member-predicts-florida-will-be.html
Florida and Michigan opnely flouted the DNC rules and went ahead despite being told their votes wouldnt count. Hillary’s crocodile tears are only falling because its the only way her maths can look better
Crikey’s video of the day is from the Daily Show called “Hillary as a Toddler. The lies, the lies.” Its worth a look.
For a good summary of why people who use the popular vote are just plain silly, Mitchell Aboulafia’s blog is a good source.
Catrina,
I’d always thought popular vote was irrellevant. How can you equate caucas votes with primary votes?
Also, “How Would Primaries Have Changed the Results in Caucus States?” by Gregory P. Nini and Glenn Hurowitz . http://www.dcourage.com/Caucus%20Study.pdf
The name of the game is delegates, nothing more, nothing less. This is the system the Democrats set up in order to select their presidential candidate.
Anyone who suggests that a person be elected on some other basis, whether it is an obscure argument about electability or the popular vote, is trying to rewrite the rules, and therefore cheat their way through the system.
405
Enemy Combatant
‘Twas a classic metaphor Ecky, and I thought it even more so considering it came after the Kentucky Derby, and anyone who knows the work of Stubbs will recall the innumerable noble nags of the gentry which he painted. That her nag fell down and got put down could not be missed by her audience.
MoDo knows how to pull the threads together, eh what?
Forget the argument about Obama losing to white working class voters, Hillary has near lost the nomination by trashing the black vote:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/05/clinton_blackvote/
…excellent analysis of how the Clintons shoved the black vote off to pander to their natural base. When many blacks initially thought Obama was not viable (on historical precedent they had a right to be sceptical), but as he started to show appeal to white liberals (and the young) they moved. Bill helped to push them away in droves and they’re never coming back.
Good read if you like getting under the bonnet.
(Remember when Obama was not black enough? LOL)
Mrs Clampett’s horse running second and being euthanised in full view of the public is the most wierd, apt omen i think i have ever witnessed.
And the winner???…Big Brown.
You couldn’t write a script like that.
Truly wierd.
Noocat at 415
Obama needs 286 delegates to win while Clinton needs 416. With just 404 pledged delegates available in the remaining contests, and assuming a likely even split, would could imagine that the race is done and dusted with Obama short by 84 and Clinton short by 214. Those remaining 298 slots are the undecided superdeegates and according to the rules they can vote for whoever they want – and within that context, anything goes.
However – we can put up suggestions for criteria:
electability: this is a not so simply – Obama has proven that he is more competitive that Clinton in the primaries and one needs to apply that principal to the general election scenario, and we could rattle on for days with different views on the subject without concensus
popularity: and here we get into popular vote counting but only with reasonable metrics that take into account caucus equivalence, but also we need to take into account the new voter registration rates and how this plays into the long term health of the party – and by any rationale measure, Obama is ahead of Clinton in this category
risk: this is tricky because risk management is the art of dealing with a problem who’s time has come – if you assume another terrorist strike on US soil during the campaign then Clinton represent the low risk as she’s modelling herself as the aggressive little fighter out there ready to kick-arse – but if the economy maintains prominence, Obama IMO looks like lower risk because he comes over as a lot cooler, calmer, and willing to deal with real issues as opposed to pandering or playing on people’s fears
opportunity: this one is interesting – the opportunity for the USA to move on and reclaim its lost respect in the world, and in the process – perhaps do something to deal with healthcare, grapple with oil addiction, and maybe do something good for the planet in the process – delivered not by ideals, but with a broad spectrum domination of the government by the Democrats for many years to come
418
HarryH
It’s life imitating art HH, and you’re right, it’s such an emphatic symbol that it almost seems engineered by the gods.
Which suggests that the gods are nearly over it too! LOL
419
Catrina
You are forgetting one important thing Catrina: all those white liberal Supers who have yet to throw all caution to the wind, and just come out for the white chick and be damned. “Who cares”, they’ll say, “if the voters think we’re just a bunch of racists, we’ve always secretly admired Hillary but were just too nervous to say so!”
Come on Catrina, think about it, you know it’s about to happen because as we all know (and have been told in NO UNCERTAIN TERMS, that HRC is the only ‘electable’ candidate for the Dems. Why, even she believes this to be true. Would you believe that?)
So get ready for the shock Catrina, get an extra big box of tissues, and a bottle of something quaffable.
Kirri at 421
OK, you have a point. We could add the following criteria …
gross stupidity: a factor not to be underestimated across the political spectrum or either party – evidenced by the election of GWB and reaffirmed by his subsequent re-election for another term.
Ferny says @ 400
“Doctors start out as idealists – and then what? They realise they’re just a franchise of Big Pharmaceutical Inc? Nah…most doctors I know (like most lawyers) still have a belief, albeit battered and bruised, that they are doing some good with their lives.
We may not be able to change the world – but we can change somebody’s – and we can do that often. So we change the world one person at a time.”
Doctors get frustrated that they can only affect one person at a time. Doctors in public hospitals are totally impotent. We function in as world which is run by bureaucrats for the benefit of politicians, who are only interested in re-election.
“Mrs Clampett’s horse running second and being euthanised in full view of the public is the most wierd, apt omen i think i have ever witnessed.”
Harry, isn’t it quaint how horses these days are “euthanased” and not “DESTROYED in full view of the public”.
And sure, a lot of Americans believe in a whole lot of irrational crap and many of them are superstitious too. Bad omen for Brutusina as far as these types of voters are concerned.
Yet one more similarity with Obi, who backed Big Brown, and Rudd who backed the winner of the last Melbourne Cup; another race that stops a nation. Thinking people like us, Harry, of course refer to such events as coincidences, but there’s always the sort who see faces of Mystical Ones in tea-leaves and melting wax, and who seek to imbue such “revelations” with deep significance.
And they’re not all in America either. These folk are fodder for charlatans and quacks of every persuasion. Staples of the rube processing industry.
Mind you, with regard to common usage, when Iraqi families are converted into pink mist by air-to-ground US missiles, the Sep Administration and the MSM call it collateral damage.
“”Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought?… Has it ever occurred to your, Winston, that by the year 2050, at the very latest, not a single human being will be alive who could understand such a conversation as we are having now?…The whole climate of thought will be different. In fact, there will be no thought, as we understand it now. Orthodoxy means not thinking—not needing to think. Orthodoxy is unconsciousness.” —Syme, pg 46-47. 1984.
Big George was one hell of a heavy hitter!
http://www.resort.com/~prime8/Orwell/patee.html
The Kentucky Derby talk triggered my memory of something that occured during our own recent political contest. Rudd picked the Melbourne Cup winner Efficient at good odds after his first pick (Maybe Better… what do you mean maybe) got scratched while Howard picked the overseas horse which was relegated to 3rd.
Just saw EC beat me to the punch.
Even more scary, Big Brown was very inexperienced and the Kentucky Derby was only his fourth start (all wins like Obi). Only one horse has won the Derby at its fourth run. And Big Brown was the favourite. Go you good thing, Obi!!
EC
i thought “euthanised” was a nice metaphor for what the Democrats are going to have to do to Mrs Clampett…and in full public view of the public.
She, and Mr Clampett, have DESTROYED themselves. It is now up to some anonymous SD’s to load the tranquiliser gun and “euthanise” her/them.
422
Catrina
One of the lines against Obama is he is ‘unkown’ or secretly Muslim or some other ‘dark’ innuendo, and therefore, elect him as Prez and he’ll take our country to ruin.
Ah, hello? The horse has already bolted on that one!
And that was with the most popular white Texas flyboy who turned out to be a complete dud, and someone who far preferred to spend his time down on the farm than actually getting his tiny brain around running the country.
‘gross stupidity’ only goes halfway to describing it.
Billy (bomb bomb) Kristol is a bit nervous:
Still, Obama is the likely Democratic nominee. Some conservatives are giddy at the thought — kidding themselves that the general election will therefore be easy, that Obama will be another Dukakis. I was struck, though, in several conversations this week with McCain campaign staffers and advisers that they’re pretty sober about the task ahead. About the Dukakis analogy, for example, one McCain aide said: If in 1988 Ronald Reagan had had a 30 percent job approval rating, and 80 percent of the voters had thought we were on the wrong track, Dukakis would have won.
…as he has to admit that his beloved Republicans are right on the nose across the country.
Funny, Billy, but one of the reasons they are so reviled is because they went along with that silly war you cheered endlessly.
Prat.
KR – ‘Cheered’ needn’t necessarily be past tense.
So, we’ve had our weekend lull – SD announcements will probably begin again tomorrow, the last day before NC and IN. I think I’d be tipping Obama by 12 in NC, Clinton by 4 in IN.
431
Pancho
Quite, Pancho, the dullwad still tries to pretend it’s a great American victory in the war on abstract nouns.
I just love the way these guys just NEVER actually look in a mirror and ask themselves why the Republican party is so mistrusted.
Thick skins, or just plain thick. Bit of both, eh?
Oh, and for those who wanted to know if the US is in recession yet, then no less a figure than the Oracle of Omaha has come out and said so in no uncertain terms.
So the next lot of figures will almost surely have a negative sign tacked onto it; $600 cheques will not save it.
This will make a difficult stage prop for McCain, who will have to try and walk around it and pretend it doesn’t stink and that it didn’t fall out of an elephant’s behind.
#419 Catrina
Great list, Catrina.
Perhaps we can also add “self interest”. Some superdelegates will endorse either candidates because of past and future favours, fear, and anything else to do with their career.
A fair chunk of Hillary’s latest endorsements probably have little to do with superdelegates believing she will win, but an expression of either loyalty or self-interest.
Here it comes:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html
“Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option To Overtake Delegate Lead
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has a secret weapon to build its delegate count, but her top strategists say privately that any attempt to deploy it would require a sharp (and by no means inevitable) shift in the political climate within Democratic circles by the end of this month.
With at least 50 percent of the Democratic Party’s 30-member Rules and Bylaws Committee committed to Clinton, her backers could — when the committee meets at the end of this month — try to ram through a decision to seat the disputed 210-member Florida and 156-member Michigan delegations. Such a decision would give Clinton an estimated 55 or more delegates than Obama, according to Clinton campaign operatives. The Obama campaign has declined to give an estimate.
Using the Rules and Bylaws Committee to force the seating of two pro-Hillary delegations would provoke a massive outcry from Obama forces. Such a strategy would, additionally, face at least two other major hurdles, and could only be attempted, according to sources in the Clinton camp, under specific circumstances:
First, this coming Tuesday, Clinton would have to win Indiana and lose North Carolina by a very small margin – or better yet, win the Tar Heel state. She would also have to demonstrate continued strength in the contests before May 31.
Second, and equally important, her argument that she is a better general election candidate than Obama — that he has major weaknesses which have only been recently revealed — would have to rapidly gain traction, not only within the media, where she has experienced some success, but within the broad activist ranks of the Democratic Party.”
Hillary told her former lapdog, er,Bill’s PR hack, George Stephanopoulos that she doesn’t much care what economists think of her (read: McCain’s) gas tax holiday (with free soda pop if you vote for Hill).
In light of this dismissal of the dismal science and its practitioners, maybe she should read this:
Economists
American economists strongly support the Democratic Party, with their views on policy being largely in accordance with the Democratic platform. The vast majority, 63%, identify as progressive and less than 20% as conservative or libertarian.[15] In a 2004 survey of 1,000 American economists, registered Democrats outnumbered registered Republicans by a 2.5 to 1 ratio. The majority of economists favored “safety regulations, gun control, redistribution, public schooling, and anti-discrimination laws,” while opposing “tighter immigration controls, government ownership of enterprise and tariffs.”[16] Other surveys have found Democrats to outnumber Republicans 2.8 to 1 among members of the profession. A study in the Southern Economic Journal found that “71 percent of American economists believe the distribution of income in the US should be more equal, and 81 percent feel that the redistribution of income is a legitimate role for government.”[17]
Wikipedia
Oh well, it’s not like there’s as many of them as Joe Sixpacks, eh?
KR
Even worse, Hillary is channelling Ron now. If you disagree with her, you are an “elite”. “Elite” is actually a shorthand for someone who actually knows a lot more than her about the topic and exposes her as an intellectual lightweight and political fraud.
Referring to economists she says “this mindset where elite opinion is always on the side of doing things that really disadvantage the vast majority of Americans.”
437
Diogenes
Hmm, would that be the ‘elite’ neocon opinion that Iraq possessed nuclear weapons?
Or the ‘elite’ opinion that banks could be brokers too?
My god, the woman is utterly shameless, and by talking down to the audience like that she proves what she really thinks of them! (ie dumb enough to buy any rubbish she spouts as long she bungs on their accent and knocks back a beer and chaser!)
Yep, a lot of ‘elite’ opinion has REALLY disadvantaged a hell of a lot of Americans, but it’s the very elite she’s aping!
She must be really pis*ed off that they could not find a single economist who would prostitute him/herself and agree that her tax holiday bribe was anything other than a cheap idiotic political stunt. They did find someone, a lobbyist for Shell Oil who probably said “If the nasty Government didn’t tax my product so much, everyone could buy as much gas as they wanted and we could all live happily ever after.”
smile- alley cat.
diogs. am I mistaken or ar you representative of the former Clampett supporters (I claim copyright on that), who have come to favour Obama?
As i once was myself , before he won me, and then she further lost me.
As for channelling Ron: ‘elite’ has clearly come to mean conscious and with a pulse.
Evening Bludgers.
There’s been some RCP movement today.
Obama’s slight recovery in the national average was short lived. Today he plummetted to his lowest level since February against Hillary when he dropped like a stone from a 2.9% lead this morning to 1.1%. The drop is due to a USA Today/Gallup poll showing Clinton with a 7% lead over Obama. Compared to all other polls, it’s an outlier – but it has reversed The Kid’s recovery.
In more bad news Obama’s NC lead has dropped from 7% to 6.5% due to an Insider Advantage poll showing Clinton leading Obama in NC by 3%. Huh??
On the other hand, Hillary’s lead in Indiana has been cut from over 5% to 4.6. Zogby tracking has Obama leading by 2%. Huh again??
Small sample sizes, FG?
Which polls have been accurate to date?
and what are the SD’s doing…??
Noocat – sample sizes for these tracking polls are typically between 500-700.
Seems like those suggesting a couple of months ago that the ultimate Clinton strategy was to hold on long enough that pushing the button on Florida/Michigan was an option were correct… yikes.
Actually, FG, that Insider Advantage poll is showing OBAMA leading Hillary by 3%.
I forgot to mention that Hillary’s SD lead has been shaved by one today, dropping from 18 to 17 since yesterday.
441
Ferny Grover
Ho hum, Ferny, it’s silly season for sure. Clinton is not 7% ahead on the national, that’s plain silly. Even Republican stooges like Billy Kristol think Obama is going to win the nomination FFS!
Who dreams up these ‘results’? More the point, was the question:
“Now that Obama has been exposed as harbouring terrorists and black panthers in his cellar, who do you think will win the nomination?”
Give me a break!
And Clinton ahead in NC? See the above! LOL
Zogby also has Obama leading Hillary by 8% in NC.
Don’t know what happened there Noocat. Yes it’s Obama ahead by 3 on the IA poll.
No wonder they are so volatile.
445
Smile
Fat chance Smile. It won’t fly but I’d guess they are making tough noises and dragging their knuckles over the ground in an intimidating way for effect.
It’s got to get past the DNC and it won’t. End of story.
450
Ferny Grover
Phew, ya had me thinking the US pollsters had taken leave of their pocket calculators! LOL
Even so, on face value, it’s a tiny lead considering where Obama was a month ago. Anyhow, he will win NC.
The Florida/Michigan option is just plain nuts and would almost certainly see a legal challenge. It would tear the Dems apart. The Clinton’s don’t have that much clout.
Jen
You are mistaken. I have never supported Billary. As an ardent, elitist, intellectual Chomskyist , the only candidate I have any time for is Nader but realistically he is counter-productive. Obama is clearly the next best option.
I think the two best polls are Rasmussen (which favours Obama) and Survey USA (which favours Clinton). If you average them, its pretty close. Currently that would be Obama by 7% in NC and Clinton by 7% in Indiana.
Blogger on Huff (with spelling corrected):
This story is becoming more and more Shakespearian, with traitors (Richardson), court jesters (Carville), knaves (Stephanopoulos) and an old crazy King (Bill Clinton). We all know it’s going to finish with a bloodbath. And then someone will say : “Alas, alas, poor Hillaric !”
…you can just picture it! LOL
If Hillary became the nominee that way, McCain is home and hosed
This is just plain silly.
Time to declare- even Grinch and Finns have gone to ground
Obama is the candidate that the SD’s are supporting, which is why they are being quiet about it. If they were Clinton supporters and thought they could derail him they would have come out by now.
They are protecting themselves by hoping they can do it as a herd, or a gaggle, or a flock …(what does one call an avalanche of SD’s?…)
Tom Hanks endorses Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/03/actor-tom-hanks-endorses_n_100001.html
Jen at 459, I agree, if the SDs were backing Hillary, NOW would be the time to declare it, she needs the support/momentum
Jen
A Super Duper Delegation
459
Jen
I think it’s called a “Marvel” of Supers!
early voting in Indiana looks good for Obama
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/02/early-indiana-turnout-hea_n_99916.html
About 20 different Obama blogers have replied to my post mostly with Obama style affection. Can’t reply to all but should start with Winston Churchill
Obama said of Wright “I could no more disown him than I can disown my white grandmother” but 4 weeks later 70% disowning him. ‘that’s a bit like Churchill promising to fight them on the beaches and never surrender, and then surrendering a month and a half later, and on a beach he decided not to fight on..
None of the National or State polls I quoted all for Hillary , not a comment, objective comments
Diogene 437: ‘even worse, Hillary is channelling Ron now’. you’ve TLC disowned
Elitist definition: superiorthoughts over others expecting favourable treatment. A site such as this attracts all sorts.Most are not ‘elititst’ , a few are & don’t like exposure
EC: 401 NYT & Huffington are pro Obama rags , just as biased as Fox
SimonH 408 Prove it. Re Hillary’s delegate lead
I said “Hillary leads the popular vote in all Primarys of registered Democrats by 121,000?. This is a fact. Check RealClearPolitics
To those querying my 51/%49% delegate win for Obama : I repeat Obama does win the delegate race with this but 51/49 is not even a resounding endorsement from the Democrat faithful. Not enough alone to justify being Nominee & leading his Party to another northeast Liberal train wreck loss
Andrew 409 & Pancho 410 Sneaky Howard Dean DNC Chairman , Obama’s factional ally stitched a dirty deal over Michigan & Florida to help his mate Obama..old style politics favoring Obama.. Obama new style politic is a sham
Noocat & Jen : Hewson GST Lib zealots lost the unlosable election.Obama supporters are similarly zealous about Obama thinking he’s made no ‘gafes’ & ignoring all electability polling vs McCain where Hillary leads
Regards to those I did not reply to
That’s uber right Mark Steyn you’re quoting there:
‘that’s a bit like Churchill promising to fight them on the beaches and never surrender, and then surrendering a month and a half later, and on a beach he decided not to fight on..
…and in the upmarket Orange County Register.
Just read the blogger’s replies!
Hmm, he’s a big hit, ole Marky! LOL
Sun. May 4: Desert ship deserted.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=ArgmCjGOfTYpyCDTqziES44V2r8F
Sun May 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AjljHuIjquatHqZgww7UFEdX_b4F
Sun May 4: In late-breaking news, Dick Cheney was admitted to a D.C. ER today with a severely gangreenous forearm.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AuiaNW4LejWkGe8GmRFYcOpS_b4F
Yep, Harry at 428, the sooner the better.
Jen @ 459 [(what does one call an avalanche of SD’s?…)]
I thought it was a coalescence of super delegates, Jen. All around the kid. And how proud they will be to put a stop to all this nonsense, which is becoming more like a loop of Monty Python’s Black Knight scene every time I pop in for a look.
The sample size for a poll alone is important. But for a series of polls it matters little, as the sum of the polls taken reduce the margin of error. With polls in America you also have to deal with the “likely voter” vs “potential voter” issue.
Zogby polls are tracking polls, which mean they phone the same sample of voters over a series of days. So I am would suggest that they are interesting and most likely to vote. As to weather they are representive is another question.
It does take a bit of time to get to a poll station on a work day and this does exclude a lot of the poor who can’t afford to leave their jobs.
To put it in plain english – if you were an SD and wanted to support Obama, but knowing that you had to face the Clinton’s and their ’staff’, wouldn’t you want to do it as part of a group rather than a lone individual?
( knowing that knee-capping was a metaphoric possibility if you upset them?)
whereas Obama might frown severley at you… oh gee.
Jv- you’re back!!
I’ve missed you.
Ron 465
You should take it as a compliment!
Michigan is a completely different story to Florida. The candidates were told to withdraw from Michigan by the DNC (the only holdout was Clinton) as it was the local democratic party that decided to jump the gun. It is highly unlikely the vote will count (more likely some delegates split between the candidates will be selected).
Florida went early as the Republican governor set the date. The local democratic party didn’t have much choice. But the campaign didn’t happen there as the candidates were told by the DNC not to. Expect a comprise resulting in half votes there at the end of May (which is equal to +19 to Clinton).
#459 – Jen Says: [Time to declare- even Grinch and Finns have gone to ground] – silence often is golden where empty vessel sounds the loudest
Finns-
glad to hear from you… do you think Grinch is OK??
A collective noun for a group of Superdelegates is a superdelegation (I think…. given that delegates from a delegation).
I suggest “squabble” as a collective noun for SD’s.
Empty vessel and all – you must be getting used to it with your rootin’, tootin’ shootin’, gal.
or a “hunch”
Sun May 4:.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Arq21zOnpQYwMijG4N_7h0FN_b4F
Sat May 3:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/edstein;_ylt=Aryyz6P5bdFU098w5tEdyOoVvTYC
Sun May 4: But it says mine is platinum!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AkvQhhCfQ18f4ND4H9CRHzhT_b4F
“Jen @ 459 [(what does one call an avalanche of SD’s?…)]”
Always check individual nametags first! Works a treat.
Yes jv, Tuesday too far away, compadre.
Off Topic….but…..The Oz is saying The Doc has slipped back to 9% in tomorrows newspoll
….9% That high? Nelson should be flattered.
Well done Uncle Sam, you’ve just given another innocent man a voice that will be played across the Muslim world to inflame terrorists:
http://civilexpression.blogspot.com/2008/05/sami-al-hajj-speaks-about-his-ordeal-in.html
Sami-al-Hajj, imprisoned for 6 years, no trial, no case, and then finally released.
Imagine the effect this guy’s story will have.
Well done Dick Cheney and all your ‘dark side’ thugs who’ve set up a branch of Osama bin Laden productions at Gitmo.
Dumb, and dumber. How dumb can they be?
Ok…. One last post before bed …..
Betfair Odds: Indiana Obama $4.50 Clinton $1.18
NC Obama $1.03 Clinton $20
Democratic Candidate: Obama $1.38 Clinton $4.50 (Gore $26)
President: Obama $2.42 McCain $2.68 Clinton $5.70 (Gore $29)
Winning Party: Dem $1.63 Rep $2.56
Just had a thought: Why not name a VP candidate now? Certainly it would draw the focus onto the candidate and give them open airtime for a 24 hour block. Problem might be getting a candidate willing to jump now (In case the other candidate got up). But if it was a wise choice it could blast the other off the page.
What about “hostages”?
good night all – may the SD’s get brave enough to face off the Clampett’s-
and then …let the real race begin.
BSF-
couldn’t resist -
Obama/ Edwards.
heaven..
471 Jen – Thanks -glad to hear it, and great to see you keeping the feisty analysis going. I have been off travelling NSW and used the opportunity to feel the mood of the people on the US primaries. Results are now in, and my official figures are that something less than 0.1% of NSW citizens give a toss about the Dems, the Repugs, Obama, Clinton, McCain or anything else to do with the election over there (MOE ~ .001%). Sad, but true. They don’t know what they’re missing.
Jv -
I get the same bemused look when I say that I am following the US elections.
But I got the same bemused look 25 minutes before ours- so I have to come to the unhappy conclusion that we are political tragics, while most people don’t give a toss.
So, wanna have dinner?
jv
metaphorically speaking of course.
i’ll send you a Big Mac via mial order…
Jen [So, wanna have dinner?]
Sure -Gee -two PB lefty political tragics at the same dinner table. Think of the bemused looks from the other diners!
Speaking of dinner, you and I are out of the running for the fine wines in the contest, but there are still some remaining with a good chance for this week or mid-June.
I have plenty left JV.
( actually I don’t, but I know where to get it)
and I am not at all happy about giving it away to the more conservative amongst us, however a wager is a wager and I will honour it.
btw- it won’t be this week.
Jen -It’s OK – we are all of the ‘Obama is the better candidate’ group I thought – none of the obliteration supporters entered.
‘Mail order Big Mac’- now that’s fine dining. It may not be in top condition, but my son would eat it regardless, if I can’t face it.
I’ll express-post you some apple pie with mock cream for dessert if you like
Well JV-
bowl me over- can’t think of the last time I had an offer like that.
mock cream you say??
i’m off to bed to dream…
jen [btw- it won’t be this week.]
Probably not, but the polls seem a bit variable from what I’ve seen tonight. If Obama wins both Indiana and NC then it might give the remaining SD’s the impetus to begin ‘the great coalescence’ and end it.
But that’s a bit much to hope for.
jen – lol – mock cream gets quite firm when a day or so old. I thought it might hang together better in the packet. However, perhaps this topic is best left alone – don’t want to find ourselves moving on to discuss strawberry jam, or runny honey.
The evening’s humour, courtesy of Bill Clinton:
“”I didn’t come here to ask you to vote for my wife,” said Clinton, addressing the congregation at Church of the Pentacostal in Asheville, N.C. “I came here to ask you to pray for her.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-as.html
497
Pancho
She needs it.
And here’s Bill doing the front porch stops:
“I checked when the Pennsylvania vote came in and Hillary got over 60 percent of the vote in every single county where I did a front porch rally, so don’t y’all let me down,” he said.
…as they say in Arkansas, Hillary couldn’t keep the dog on the porch! But now the old dog is allowed to go round other’s porches and proclaim she ain’t ‘pandering’.
Onya, Bill (not pandering) Clinton.
Superdelegate update …
Obama picks up an additional endorsement from superdelegate Kalyn Free:
DNC Superdelegate, INDN’s List Founder and
USW (United Steelworkers) Associate Member Kalyn Free
Endorses Senator Barack Obama for U.S. President
This brings the super delegate count (adjusted for the Pelosi factor) to 12 advantage Clinton.
Obama: 256 (249+7)
Clinton: 268 (269-1)
This has to be the best article I have read in the last three months. The title is The Psychological Dynamics of the 2008 Primaries: Who’s Where and Why? written by Drew Westen. The article is an adapted version of Postscript to the Paperback Edition of his book. Well worth spending some time reading.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/drew-westen/the-psychological-dynamic_b_100136.html
In the prelude to a super dump, the Hillary Clinton campaign have announce the endorsement of Theresa Morelli from Dems Abroad. That’s half a delegate (a.ka. 0.5) for Hillary with a storm cloud of Obama endorsement about to hit the headlines.
Two superdelegates from Maryland for Obama.
http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/05/obama_picks_up_maryland_superd.html
For the moment the DCW numbers do not include this announcement.
I’m done for tonight – but keep any eye on the DCW site as there will probably be another 3 Obama supers rolling in within the next few hours. I’ll be checking the numbers later and factoring in the Pelosi equation and with luck we will be back into singe digits.
Democracy in motion – its almost as good as a warm meatball pesto salad.
Catrina@501,
You’re right-an excellent read.
Mornin’ All,
REAL CLEAR POLITICS ELECTION 2008
Democrats…………..Obama-Clinton…….Spread
Total Delegates……..1747-1607…………Obama + 140
Super Delegates…….256-270……………Clinton + 14*
Pledged Delegates…..1491-1337………..Obama + 154
Naturally, none of this matters anymore as Brutusina has opted for her “nu-ku-lar” option. (cf Huffy.) Somehow this reminds me of Ursula, the Sea Witch, getting medieval on everybody’s ass at the climax of “The Little Mermaid”.
Hey America, what the hell! I’m still Deciderer-In-Chief, Let’s whack I-ran!!
http://caglepost.com/cartoon/Pat+Bagley/50621/Bush+Accomplishments.html
Been a while since he read those “3 Shakespeares and a Camus”
http://www.sacbee.com/babin/image_media/909274.html
The line between Democracy and Fascism is a fine one indeed!
http://cartoons.nytimages.com/wieck_preview_page_131690
“After U.S. gasoline prices surged to a record high this week, President Bush strode into the Rose Garden to unveil his plans for coping with skyrocketing energy costs: drill for oil in Alaska, add U.S. refineries and build more nuclear plants.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/blog/2008/05/05/BL2008050501147.html
So, to keep everything hunky-dory, the GOP have chosen Johnny Bomb-Bomb to replace The Imbecile.
America should be so lucky, already!!
*Now 12, you bewdy, Catrina, with Obi picking up Kalyn Free.
Yes, Catrina’s link at 501 is a bottler. Phil Adams interviewed Drew Western a month or two back. Compelling stuff. Every Dem soldier from from Obi’s War-Room to precinct captains needs to absorb Western’s message fast, then act. Sure it’s a truism, but knowledge is power. Expect to see Obi back in Elmer Gantry mode soon. The Candidate of Hopes and Dreams who connects with good, wholesome American guts.
“The central thesis of the book, grounded in psychology, neuroscience, political science, and modern electoral history, was that elections are won and lost not primarily on “the issues” but on the values and emotions of the electorate–most importantly, on the “gut feelings” that summarize much of what voters think and feel about a candidate or party. Candidates who win the hearts and minds of the voters are those who can weave together emotionally compelling stories about who they are and who their opponents are and can make people feel what they feel.”
“I may make you feel………. but I can’t make you think…” Jethro Tull.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toHlMD50eYY
390,000 early votes in NC, of an expected total of about 1.1-1.2 million. Of these, almost 41% have been black voters: http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_early_vote_in_north_caroli.php
Get ready for a good win – on demographics, which has been more reliable than polling so far, it should be 15%+ – and a blow to the ‘popular vote’ argument. Although in Clinton’s defence, she has been loathe to let reality intrude on this particular narrative…
Pancho:
41% is a HUGE turnout of the black vote. If it’s repeated on polling day, it will indeed be a double-digit win for The Kid, which will see the prevailing pro-Hillary narrative change yet again. If he can hold her to anything under a 5% win in Indiana, it’s over. The Indiana win will keep her fighting, but all she will have left is her nu-kul-ar option of bullying to have Florida and Michigan seated.
On the other hand, if the polls are correct and it’s a close-run thing in NC, a solid win in Indiana and a walloping win for Clinton in West Virginia next week (recent polls have her up to 30 points ahead), then the case mounts for SD’s to throw their support behind her new found mo.
Pass KR the popcorn.
Ralph Nader is about to commence a West Coast tour to get on the ballot in those atates. Trouble is, he’s out of gas:
“With gas hovering around $4.00 a gallon in much of the West, we make this simple appeal to you – our loyal supporters.
We need gas money.”
http://www.votenader.org/index.html
FG – I would guess the % of black vote would come down slightly on election day – Obama has had far superior organisation to Clinton on the ground just about everywhere and this is probably reflected at the moment – but even if it is way down on the day we’re still looking at something like 35% overall. Which makes the polls that have shown a tight race on the prediction of a 25% black turnout laughable.
Not quite as laughable as the ‘nukular option’, which is just another delaying tactic. While Clinton may (in theory) have the numbers to ram something through the Rules and Bylaws, as others have noted, Obama will have the numbers on the credentials committee at the Convention to overturn anything unfairly partisan. And Clinton supporters on the R&B will know this and not play a destructive and ultimately unfruitful game. Remembering that if Clinton holds 50% of R&B, it will take only one voice of reason to shut down any stupidity. I’m sure that Obama, Dean and Pelosi will be able to find that person. So this ‘option’ is really just more Clinton bluster.
489
Jen
No probs sending JV a snack!
Hamburger in a can!
http://www.gizmag.com/the-canned-cheeseburger–fast-food-in-the-wilderness/8713/
If only the people in Indiana realised that they could end this thing and vote for Obama. It seems like this is not a factor the primary voting patterns
Another complication Andrew:
‘Rush Limbaugh has re-initiated “Operation Chaos” after briefly placing it on “pause”, asking his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primaries in order to prolong the Democratic nomination process. This has been known for several days now. It is not such an issue in North Carolina because registered Republicans may not vote in the Democratic primary (only independent voters can) and registration changes are due more than a month before the election. However, in the latest entry at his website, Limbaugh not only encourages his listeners to vote for Clinton but asks them to break Indiana law to do so.’
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/5/18257/22437/904/509640
Friends like these, huh Gary?
CNN latest SD count 266 to 252 in Hillary’s favour- is this without the Pelosi group??
Obama overtaking Hillary on the SD count would be a strong signal, as its the only no. in which she is ahead
No Pelosis in there – it is down from about 20 with the 3 Illinois add-ons becoming official, 2 Obamas from MD and one other yesterday.
Other being Kalyn Free, DNC and organizer of the Indigenous Democratic Network .
RCP has Hillary +15 in the SD count, down from 20 on Friday.
So how many are there in the Pelosi camp??
510
Ferny Grover
Ralph Nader needs ‘gas’ money? That’s a bit rich for the gasbag from hell.
I’ve got one message for Ralph:
On ya bike, Ralph, on ya bke.
At least +7 to Obama and -1 to Clinton according to http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html
A few more Clinton SD’s are talking of switching sides if Obama wins the pledged delegates and popular vote:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-supers5-2008may05,0,4564727.story
So…the Pelosi Club will probably be welcoming some new members around 3 June.
thanks pancho, so Hillary’s lead given this would be down to 6 SDs
#509
Last night on the Daily Show Howard Dean told John Stewart they would seat Florida and Michigan delegates at the convention – they just had to work out a formula that would be fair to Obama & Clinton as well as the States that followed party rules.
He also said the SD’s would vote for the candidate with ‘electability’ – but wouldn’t specify what that meant.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml
I felt that Howard Dean left open the possibility of giving the nomination to HRC, despite the maths. This would be travesty.
It’s interesting that each time Hillary realises she has lost one narrative that she changes to a new one. First the PD count went against her so it doesn’t count. Then the popular vote went against her so it doesn’t count, unless you include a state where only she was on the ballot paper. Then it became electability until she realised the she was unelectable if she could only get the nomination by overturning the will of the party. Now she can’t get to 2025 with the help of SDs so the narrative changes again to include Florida and Michigan to buy her time. It’s pathetic really.
Grace at 524 I dont understand why they would seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, when it was made clear before they had their primaries that if they proceeded they would not be seated. Shows you the power the Clintons have over the DNC. I dont think there would be a fuss if Hillary hadnt won those states (bearing in mind Obama wasnt even on the Michigan ballot).
It also seems that Dean is buying into Hillarys phoney “electability” argument. Quite a concerning development
>I dont understand why they would seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, when it was made clear before they had their primaries that if they proceeded they would not be seated.
I think it’s based upon the fact that there is a growing belief that not seating the delegates will have a real negative impact for the Dems in the POTUS race.
Whether or not this is true, it seems that those pushing this argument (which from what I have read appear to be Hillary-supporters) seem to be making headway behind the scenes…
Yep Diog – According to Phillip Adams, Hillary is the Great Pretender, a chamelion who will change her character, as well as her story, to suit the situation she’s in:
“Where Bill was the bigger fibber who “did not have sex with that woman”, Hillary is the better chameleon. She can camouflage herself on moving backgrounds, instantly adapting to any crisis or context in which she finds herself. When trying to win over white working-class men, she’ll front the bar and toss down the drinks. In the company of those whose guns will have to be levered from their cold, dead hands (to paraphrase the National Rifle Association’s patron saint Chuck Heston), she becomes a rootin’, tootin’, gun-totin’ Annie Oakley who remembers shooting critters and varmints with Daddy as a childhood highlight.
Fronting a gospel choir, she’ll borrow a black accent (I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her campaign in blackface); and when the congregation is made up of white evangelicals, she’ll lift her arms into the air, throw her head back and talk of her frequent encounters with the holy spirit.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23650447-7583,00.html
Howard Dean has to tread down the middle, or be seen to. So he cannot say, flatly, that Fl and M cannot be there. Using Clinton’s meme of ‘electability’ is nice camouflage itself, because hey, it means different things to different people.
I don’t see Dean bending over for Clintons, ever. Besides, this is going to be fought out in back rooms, but the DNC will want to mollify the two states and try not to have a legal bunfight going on before the convention.
The other thing is that Obama’s people will fighting back and will not let Clinton just nominate herself with a sleight of hand.
Michigan cannot be a plus for HRC, and Florida won’t do it on it’s own if she can’t claw back a lot of ground from here.
My guess is that the outcome of tomorrow will decide which approach HRC adopts – if she runs close in NC and wins in IN then she’ll fire up a full court press (talking up momentum in the press while simultaneously pursuing strategies to have Fl/MI seated).
If Obama is close in IN and slam-dunks NC then Clinton wont be able to try for a final push (or perhaps ‘putsch’ is a better term) and that will probably be it. At this point I can actually see preparations for as graceful an exit as possible.
If it’s any indication, the “Democracy for America” Organisation (founded by Howard Dean) is mounting a petition entitled “Let the Voters Decide”. The petition states:
“We the undersigned call on Democratic super-delegates to let the voters decide our Democratic nominee. After every Democrat in every state has had a chance to vote, super-delegates must confirm the winner of the popularly allocated delegates.”
I wonder if failure to comply will result in all members letting out an Iowa Scream?
Interesting developments on HuffPost:
UPDATE | May 5, 11am ET : Hillary Clinton’s campaign today acknowledged plans to try to win seating of the disputed Michigan and Florida delegations to the Democratic Nation Convention at a meeting of the party’s Rules and Bylaws Committee on May 31.
In a statement issued in response to a story on The Huffington Post (”Clinton Camp Considering Nuclear Option,” see below), the campaign declared:
“There is no secret plan…. The Clinton campaign has been vocal in stating that the votes of 2.5 million people must be respected. Hardly a day goes by when a Clinton official doesn’t publicly declare that the votes of Michigan and Florida count and that the delegations from those states should be seated.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/04/clinton-camp-considering_n_100051.html
Game on.
probably a stupid question but why don’t they let Florida and Michigan revote (with both of them on the ballot)?
“probably a stupid question but why don’t they let Florida and Michigan revote (with both of them on the ballot)”
This has been discussed but (from memory) cost is too great and time is too tight.
fair enough. Thanks Smile!
I’d love to see Clinton’s argument for declaring an invalid ballot to be suddenly valid. It offends all the principles of natural justice, let alone plain old boring law, to change the rules after the event. She’s appealing to the Mugabe Rules.
Another indication of what a Clinton Presidency would look like. Same ol, same ol’.
#524
In addition to the time and cost #525, the Clinton camp would claim a revote as their victory, that HRC had been the only candidate sticking up for Florida & Michigan. Remember her appearance in Florida after their primary.
Sorry that should be #534 & #535
Jen, apart from cost and time, I think the State Legislators (parliament) as well as the Democrat state and national organisations need to approve the holding of primaries/caucuses. It’s a logistically onerous process.
And somehow I don’t think Hillary would want to hold a revote. She doesn’t have the money and can’t be guranteed of the results in a ballot where her opponent actually takes part. Her position is that the current votes should stand. Of course this means that Obama would get ZERO Michigan delegates and a minimal number from Florida where he did not campaign (on instructions from the DNC, which Hillary flouted).
And now she wants to be rewarded for ignoring the Party directions and rules. Another indication of the kind of President she would be.
And for those who haven’t noticed, Obama’s national average lead on RCP has been cut to 0.3% due to an Ipsos poll showing Clinton ahead by 7. Bollocks!
bullbutter perhaps?
The shrinking ship:
28/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +10.3 (Pastor Wright at NCP 28/4/08)
29/04/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +7.3 (Obama Philly Mark 2)
30/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +3.0
01/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +1.6
05/05/08 – Nat’l RCP Average Obama +0.3
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
In a sea of ‘MAS’ Obamabotic-Mania , is there any POTUS electability deciding statistics/polls discussed. No , we can merely sweep them away by just not talking about them. We know we can not comment on National polls vs McCain or swing State polls vs McCain or the popular vote count of all registered Democrats so we talk about an internal race (not electability POTUS deciding).
This is like having Rudd and Swan have various Australia wide Primarys of Labor supporters to decide who shall be Labor’s candidate against the then Howard. Swan wins the blue ribbon Liberal Primarys like Toorak and Vaucluse & those existing Labor seat Primarys that Swan & Rudd will win anyway. BUT Rudd wins the key ‘oz’ marginal seats (swing states) Primarys like Eden Monaro decisively. But we only take notice of Swan’s wins in the blue ribbon Liberal seats and in those existing Labor seats Swan & Rudd will win anyway Ignore the marginals when deciding who is more electable.
Also Rudd leads Swan on the popular vote including the 2 disputed Eden Monaro type Primarys (where Rudd had won decisively & would have then anyway)
But Rudd trails the popular vote without these 2 disputed marginal seats Rudd won easily. Decisively above all else Rudd has also won the undisputed key marginal seat Primarys (the swing States) & current polls still show Rudd leads Swan in them. Ignore those marginals Primarys (the swing states) tose that sdecide POTUS , those that decide who is more electable the Obamabots say, instead look at Swan’ wins in Vaucluse & Toorak and existingLabor seats we will win anyway
But with Obamabotic-Mania it is the big picture dream vision…the ‘yes we can’ on a blank page without any detail with our Vaucluse & Toorak based/safe Labor seat based delegate wins that decides rather than the dreaded political reality. And should McCain be POTUS , Obamabotic-Mania then indignant shall say the damn voters got it wrong
How about a graphic with Hillarys shrinking SD lead or Obama’s growing overall lead. Oh sorry, I’m talking delegate numbers, they dont count to Hillary supporters- silly me
Ron, why bother with your stupid posts, its about the delegate count and nothing else and your candidate is losing
Obamabot obamabot obamabot. Obamabot obamabot obamabot obamabot. Obamabot obamabot obamabot. Ok?
In news of some relevance, here’s an interesting rundown of pollster’s performances over the season: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/obamas-favorite-pollsters-and-clintons.html
Zogby has been Obama +4.6, ARG Clinton +4.5/
Well Andrew, are you taking into account “Rudd and Swan” “Australia wide Primarys of Labor” “Labor’s candidate against the then Howard” “Swan” “Liberal Primarys like Toorak and Vaucluse” “Labor seat Primarys” “Swan & Rudd” “Rudd” “key ‘oz’ marginal seats” “Eden Monaro”? How can you comment of the Democratic Primary season if not?
Ron, your argument is simple- even if Obama wins the most pledged delegates and the popular vote, the SDs should and will back Hillary in sufficient numbers to give her the candidacy. Sheer fantasy
Sorry should have added, and if the numbers still dont add up, then try to introduce delegates in states where it was agreed wouldnt be seated. Have I left anything out???
“Sheer fantasy”
I think the point of the ‘nuclear option’ Huffington Post article is that HRC is actually considering adopting this strategy, with the closing national Obama v HRC polling perhaps lending support for it actually being attempted (depending upon tomorrow’s outcome)…
Smile – Hillary has the numbers on Rules and Bylaws. She will not on the Credentials Committees, as these are apportioned by states and delegates won. So the ‘nuclear option’ is a false dawn. Anything unfairly partisan will be overturned.
Hiya all.
On Ron’s point, i thought that the delegate count has some proportional measure in-built to make sure that non-democrat states didn’t get as big a say. Or is that a population measure? Can someone fill me in?
Guy Rundle in today’s Crikey says
“Will Hillary’s all-stops-out-thang work? To a degree, Indiana will be a litmus test of such. Hills is on track to win, but the scale will be crucial. Anything below 5% will be a loss, anything above 8% will suggest that this sort of, well, bad craziness, can draw in a middle section of the voters.”
Its worth reading the whole article for gems like the following explanation of US party system:-
“Vermont, that leafy, quasi-autonomous Republic of armed PBS viewers, has a Republican governor who is pretty far to the left of most Democrats, especially those who want to nuke Iran. Meanwhile, Montana’s Democratic governor would not resile from invading Canada and enslaving its whiny liberal population to pull people’s cars when there is no more gas.”
Pancho, I understand that. It still doesn’t mean that, in terms of continuing to force the issue till the very end, camp Clinton won’t seek to use the Rules and Bylaws Committee to rule that some permutation of Florida/Michigan delegates be seated and then push the issue to the Credential Commitee (which would then be on the spot to ‘undemocratically’ strip Fl/Mi again, under the full glare of the (inter)national media).
I’m not saying this will work but:
(1) Clinton is still fighting (and spending cash) and it’s now May;
(2) I can’t see she’s just doing it for kicks;
(3) her camp is seeding these ‘nuclear option’ stories for a reason; and
(4) the running polls appear to be turning in her favour…
Ron (and others),
I sincerely apologise for taking your fantastical rantings seriously. Seeing that your ‘rebuttal’ (#465) merely involved pointing to the very link that I had already indicated showed you up as touting deliberately misleading figures. I won’t make the same mistake again. Although your Rudd/Swan rambling could surely be used as a ‘how not to…’ template by someone teaching an ESL class.
I would like it if there were some (more) serious, rational HRC supporters on here. I doubt whether all 14 million-odd of her US supporters are deluded and obsessive. (Possible, I guess, but odds against.) Seriously. And in saying that, I make no comment as to whether Adam qualifies. Obama really has been damaged over the last fortnight; the interesting issue is the ramifications of the damage, in circumstances where he’s still caught up in a protracted scragfight, but ultimately IMO the chances of him not being the Dem nominee are about the same as the chances of the Weagles recovering to win the AFL flag this year.
Talk of the nuclear option is timely because it is simply the only way HRC can win– while she remains in the game, supposedly to actually win rather than just wreck Obama, she might as well pursue it. (I think no-one, not even Howard Dean, is in any doubt that if it’s a choice between her own power and the interest of the Democratics party, she would be delighted to trash the Dems.) It’s a long-shot, but it’s her only long-shot. Would be interested in hearing more about the mechanics of how it might actually work.
Superdelegate update – since the addition of Kalyn Free (comment #500) midday yesterday, Clinton picks up half a delegate (mentioned at #502) while Obama picks up 3. These include the two super delegates from Maryland (mentioned at #503) – DNC Michael Cryor and DNC Lauren Glover. Lastly, Obama’s third super for the day was Richard Daley (IL), one of three add-on delegates (the other two delegates have not been included in the DCW count as yet but are widely known to be Obama supporters).
This bring the total down to 15.5 advantage Clinton or 9.5 when adjusted for the Pelosi factor.
Obama: 259 (252+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
catrina, i put the net pelosi factor change to 9, which is a lead of 6, because Obama picks up new 7 SDs and 1 from Clinton
SimonH asking for rational Hillary supporters here is as fruitless as asking for rational coalition supporters. They dont come here
I wonder which half of the delegate is allowed to vote? The bit that can be seated I guess.
Andrew at 558
The Pelosi factor is +7 for Obama and -1 for Clinton. This comes from the 6 undecided supers plus the 1 Clinton super (making 7 addition for Obama), and the defector from Clinton raises the -1 against Clinton. The other two Pelosi club members are already counted as Obama supporters in the base numbers (as such they should not be added when applying the Pelosi factor).
Excellent article in the New Yorker about the weirdness of the structure of this primary campaign. And why it’s likely to run on and on despite the logistical, mathematical and financial realities facing Clinton:
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/05/12/080512taco_talk_kolbert
I was never around for ‘when will she concede?’ lotto, but my guess is after one or both of the following has happened:
a) Obama takes a confirmed lead in committed superdelegates, and/or
b) the nuclear option is deployed but fails.
‘Superdels should move en masse to whoever wins the popular vote after all regions have voted’ is a campaign strategy, not a serious possibility. A link earlier posted points to the impossibility of compiling universally accepted data on what the popular votes actually are, anyway.
SimonH,
Hillary’s “nuclear option” is just another red herring, designed to make people think she still has a chance of winning.
There is simply no way Michigan and Florida will be seated as is. There would be an uproar, not just from the Obama camp, but from millions of fair-minded Democrats. For a start, Michigan didn’t even have Obama’s name on the ballot, so there is no way Hillary won her share of delegates fairly.
One possibility touted about in recent days is to divide Michigan delegates evenly between Hillary and Obama, and give Florida delegates half a vote.
But even if Florida is awarded a full vote, Hillary still won’t get enough to win the nomination, unless she managed to get most of the superdelegates from here on, and at current trends, they are breaking Obama’s way.
Hillary knows she is finished. Her nuclear option is just another attempt at shifting the narrative so she can hang on for a while longer. The question we need to ask ourselves is why, or maybe you answered that when you said:
“I think no-one, not even Howard Dean, is in any doubt that if it’s a choice between her own power and the interest of the Democratics party, she would be delighted to trash the Dems.”
Harold Ickes was on MSNBC outlining the nuclear option and how ‘unfair’ it was that Foridian and Michigan democrats wouldn’t get to seat delegates.
Hmm, funny, but that is exactly what the candidates agreed to BEFORE these states held their primaries! LOL
Dio mentioned it earlier, how Clinton has shifted the goalposts every time her shot went wide, and she’ll continue doing so until someone blows a final whistle.
It looks like the IA and NC primaries will be another split, and we will travel closer and closer to Hillary going all out to get in her time machine and go back and change history in her favour.
Not only will this defy the laws of time travel, it will p!ss off a lot of people, and my hunch is that it will precipitate a move to shut her down. It would be ironic, that her aggresive desire to win by any means, would ultimately be the signal to the Supers that she is not concerned about the party, but that, I think, is what would happen.
Will she go there?
What other choice does she have?
Pass the popcorn, here comes the scary bit….
Must watch viewing for anyone interested in the Obama/Clinton battle.
Episode II: The Empire Strikes Barack
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8lvc-azCXY
Here lies the essence of its all: ["while Hillary Clinton tells lies, Barack Obama is himself a lie. That
is becoming painfully apparent with each new revelation of how drastically his carefully crafted image this election year contrasts with what he has actually been saying and doing for many years"] – The poll numbers in NC just remind me very much of NH.
Stupidity foils the black prince
Paul Sheehan
May 5, 2008, SMH
This column is about stupid black men, a sub-group now in the process of undermining the first ever realistic and galvanising tilt for the White House by an African-American. ……. Yet for Democratic presidential primaries in North Carolina and Indiana tomorrow, which ought to have dealt two more victories to Obama and the death blow to Senator Hillary Clinton, his poll numbers have seriously eroded over the past three weeks.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/paul-sheehan/stupidity-foils-the-black-prince/2008/05/04/1209839444360.html
The Finns I have to congratulate you on your ability to point to a Clinton win despite the maths. Youre delusional, but at least you are committed, or perhaps you should be committed!!
One thing I must say is though that Hillary has succeeded in pushing the “she’s still in the race” narrative
The Parrot has morphed into a Barry Hall, amazing technology.
566
The Finnigans
Which is why, since the beginning of this year, Supers have been moving to Obama overwhelming and he’s soon to overtake her on the ONLY metric in which she is (very marginally) ahead.
Maybe for balance (as if!), Sheehan could do a piece on dumb white prejudice and how McCain is now pandering to the very ‘agents of intolerance’ he once so accurately named.
When Sheehan can discuss black liberation theology in the greater context of religious bigotry and tribalism, he might have something better to say than “Obama is the lie”.
Yep, his mother took food stamps and he’s worked his way to the top in a racist country, he’s got plaudits from a wide range of Democrats, but he’s a ‘lie’.
Sheehan’s article is appalling tripe. OK if you like offal.
That Paul Sheehan article is more authoratitive than anything else he has written for years. The reason? A guy who touted the miracle healing qualities of magic water (under the guise of ‘journalism’!) and then expected us all to gasp with surprised amazement when its peddler turned out to be a snake-oil salesman who ripped money off the ill and desperate, is acutely qualified to spot a “deluded narcissist”. He sees one every morning.
#570 – btw, Obama said he loves the Indonesian Soto soup which is full of tripe and offal.
I don’t think this has been especially challenging. The media has been happy to help maintain the illusion of a possible Hillary victory because the controversy it creates (plus Hillary’s mud-slinging tactics) is good for sales, at least for now.
At some point, it will become tiresome though, if it hasn’t already.
Stranger things have happened in politics.
Clinton-Obama, Obama-Clinton. How they could run together and take turns being president. By Akhil Reed Amar, Posted Friday, March 21, 2008
http://www.slate.com/id/2187034/pagenum/all/#page_start
While you’re quoting Sheehan with approval, Finns, you might like to peruse what he had to say about Hillary:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/paul-sheehan/undone-by-ghost-of-trysts-past/2008/03/02/1204402265736.html
He closes the article with this:
“Hillary Clinton’s problem is not her gender but her character.”
Sheehan must read PB!
>”How they could run together and take turns being president.”
Or “How to make crazy-bomb-bomb-McCain look sane”
Finns, now youve called me a parrot and Barry Hall, I guess I’d better join the Hillary camp
Here’s a neat SD calculator:
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegatecalculator/index.html
If the rest of the primaries/caucuses had results similar to PA, Hillary would still need 69% of all remaining SD’s to win the nomination.
Ferny Grover at 578
Just took a look at the SD calculator page you referenced – its currently showing the Hillary would need 78% of remaining SDs to win (which sounds more realistic to me).
I think I’ve spotted the difference – the 69% comes up if you assume Hillary’s average is equivalent to the PA results, whereas the 78% comes up if you assume that the remaining result will be equivalent to the average of the current results.
Yep Catrina. That’s based on the average result so far. It would be optimistic to think Obama will maintain that in the current climate – and West Virginia next week is probably going to be a thumping. So…even allowing for the unlikely scenario where Hillary wins all future contests with the same margin as PA, she will still need 69% of the remaining SDs.
They’re not ZERO odds….but they might as well be.
With you there Smile. Even the unity ticket being touted seems like lunacy to me. Closest I can imagine at the moment would be Obama/Bayh, but I guess stranger things have happened.
I am a Clinton supporter. I hope that I am a relatively rational one.
Clinton winning the nomination is unlikely in the extreme, no matter the results of the next five state votes.
However, re Michigan and Florida, I personally do not think that it is fair for millions of voters to effectively lose their votes because the organising committees of their state primaries broke party rules. The organising committees and the state party should be punished, not the voters.
re Michigan, I would be quite happy for a 50/50 split there, but I think Florida should count in full. If I was an Obama supporter, I would not worry about that. Again: even with Florida, it is incredibly unlikely for Clinton to get sufficient numbers of SD to win the delegate count.
As to the electability argument, imo Clinton is far more electable than Obama based on current national and state polling. Clinton wins Ohio and Florida with ease, while Obama is in a tight contest (and behind) in those states. Ohio and Florida will yet again decide the presidential contest, whoever is the democratic candidate.
I will also state for the record that if Obama wins the nomination, I will definitely support him against McCain. After all, Clinton/Obama, tomato/tomata.
(Well, not in every way, of course, but they are near enough on policy to be okay with me.)
572
The Finnigans
He likes soto?
That means he could have Sheehan for breakfast.
583
David Gould
welcome to the pollbludgin’ dungeon DG, and nice to have a HRC supporter who is not either incoherent or twitching Tourette’s afflicted! LOL
One argument from the Obama camp is that Hillary is playing the traditional swing state game, but Obama runs McCain a lot closer in his ‘home’ turf. In other words, Obama stands a good chance, if nominated, with a strong, well financed campaign and a population well fed up with Republican rule, to not just win a small number of swing states, but change the map entirely.
This latter scenario is the one that scares the bejesuz out of the Republicans, and one I’d contend is a good proposition IF Hillary concedes graciously and does NOT try to poison the well.
Beating Hillary in a couple of swing states, with her notorious negatives, may be a lot easier than running lots of contests where they aren’t resourced enough to endure a full frontal attack.
David Gould, a voice of reason and realism from the Hillary camp. What a refreshing change, we knew people like you existed, and to think I just said they dont visit PB! Welcome to the debate
583 David
How…..rational of you.
Agree mostly with everything you say but I disagree with you assessment of their relative electabilities. Yes Clinton would wrap up Ohio and Florida. Obama is less convincing in those states but that’s OK because pretty much everywhere else he’ll rip the heart out of the Repubs.
Though, truth be told, I doubt it matters that much who’s running for the Dems. The GOP is dead in the water either way.
Thanks David Gould,
It’s always nice to meet a rational Hillary supporter.
Re the Florida and Michigan situation, I understand what you say about disenfranchising the voters who are the innocent victims of the state organisation’s poor decision. The problem is that the way the primaries were conducted renders them invalid. Hillary campaigned in Florida after agreeing not to – and Obama did not. Many supporters of both candidates stayed home believing that the vote would not count. The result, therefore, is not a true indication of the state’s voting intentions. To suddenly allow the vote to stand would be a great injustice to those who would have voted but did not do so in the circumstances. It would be an even greater injustice to Obama, who accepted his Party’s directions and did not campaign. To count the Florida vote would be to reward Hillary for flaunting her party’s instructions and for going back on her agreement not to campaign there.
Michigan, of course, is in an even worse situation as Obama was not on the ballot.
I cannot see any legal or just way in which these votes can be counted. The process was flawed – and so, therefore, are the results.
David Gould – finally a rational Clinton supporter who is prepared to confront reality rather than deny it.
David Gould at 583
Welcome to PB. You raised the question of Michigan and Florida – and it isn’t a good picture. The Michigan scenario of 50/50 is sort of a null event, but misses the issue that the state broke the rules. I would be suggesting a 50/50 split and the application of half voting rights to each pledged delegate, and the elimination of all Michigan superdelegates (which if I understand correctly corresponds closely to the party minimum punishment policy). Florida is worse because we don’t have any reliable basis for evaluating distribution. I would suspect that some solution will arrive, but only after it is a null-event (i.e. numbers on committees, supers, pledged, etc.) will ensure that Florida + Michigan participation don’t change the ultimate result.
FG at 588 youve summarised the Michigan/Florida situation brilliantly. Yes it’s a shame that the votes dont count, but the party and the voters knew this well in advance. If both candidates have of campaigned in both states and been on both ballots, then you could argue some compromise scenario. The best option is to leave them out. And I would say the same if the Obama/Hillary voting % were reversed.
Obama has also shown a great ability to attract apathetic voters, not just owing to a well-organised grassroots campaign, but also due to a natural ability to deliver a strong and inspiring message.
This has been part of the reason why he appears to be changing the traditional blue-red map.
Don’t underestimate that “once-in-a-generation” feeling that has often been associated with Obama.
I fear that if Hillary were the Dem candidate, a whole heap of would-be voters simply won’t bother to vote because little difference will be seen between her and McCain, or her and the Republicans, especially after her latest talk of bombing Iran and that popularist, but ultimately ineffective gas tax holiday.
If you thought it was safe to go back into the water, then think again.
Seriously!
From today’s NYT:
And as Wall Street all but abandons the mortgage business, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now overwhelmingly dominate it, handling more than 80 percent of all mortgages bought by investors in the first quarter of this year. That is more than double their market share in 2006.
But some financial experts worry that the companies are dangerously close to the edge, especially if home prices go through another steep decline. Their combined cushion of $83 billion — the capital that their regulator requires them to hold — underpins a colossal $5 trillion in debt and other financial commitments.
….
“They are on real thin ice financially,” said Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, the senior Republican on the Banking Committee. “And the way the law is written right now, there is very little we can do to correct that.”
__________________
…..so essentially, these two massive mortgage originators are woefully underfunded and there are some big losses not yet written off, and they’re holding small change compared to the size of their balance sheet.
It’s not hard to see why some very serious people are getting a wee bit jittery!
And anyone who’s followed the history of these two institutions knows, they ain’t been the straightest shooters of the corporate world.
Needless to say, if either of these two goes to jelly, Bear Stearns will seem like a picnic in the park.
Oh, and the forecasts for US home prices?
Don’t ask.
Catrina, it is my understanding of the rules that there is no provision to strip SDs of voting rights. From memory the charter calls for something along the lines of a half vote for regular delegates with no mention of SDs at all. I may be wrong though.
And the case for a Michigan 50/50 split is complicated by the fact that there is a group of people ‘uncommitted’, who think that they are entitled to seats now. They did run and win votes. If all of them are not for Obama and cannot be accommodated by the list he wants, there’s more trouble again.
A third point – while at full value Clinton will net 38 delegates vs. Obama in Florida, this is not the whole picture. Edwards also won 13 delegates in that state, and we don’t know how they would fall. You would expect Edwards supporters to be closer to Obama, but Florida is a wacky place.
Noocat I agree but I respect the right of Hillary and her supporters to argue the electability issue. The numbers are against her and I would expect her to employ any tactic reasonably available to her, and she must be mightily miffed that a nomination that was all but hers last year has slipped out of her hands. What is more annoying is the MSM swallowing her spin and failing by and large to point out the reality of the numbers
Pancho at 594
I thought that 1/2 vote thing applied to all of the delegates under discussion (pledged, super, add-on, etc.) but I could very easily be off base with that assumption.
1.5 million individual donors now: http://www.barackobama.com/index.php#.
I have read a number of people (unsurprisingly, Anti-Hillary) complain of a few things about her. I will address two of them right now:
1. That she changes the rules when it suits her.
2. That she is a habitual liar.
Regarding #1: Clinton criticised Dean’s decision to unseat the delegates BEFORE the Florida vote – on Jan. 25, in fact, and well before she could be confident of winning the vote. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2533575920080126
Regarding #2: I have just been to a site called PolitiFact (www.politifact.org). It is unafraid to call any of the candidates, from either party, on any falsehoods they speak. I did a cursory analysis of Clinton’s profile there vs. Obama’s.
The site rates statements in 6 stages: True, Mostly True, Half-True, Barely-True, False and Pants-on-fire False.
True: This statement is true factually and in intent. Example: Hillary Clinton -”He (Obama) chairs the subcommittee on Europe. … He’s held not one substantive hearing to do oversight.” – referring to Afghanistan.
Mostly True: The point of this statement is accurate, but a few details got lost along the way. Example: Hillary Clinton – “I have 35 years’ experience making change.”
Half-True: Either the facts are wrong, or the point is misleading, but neither is actually false, let alone both. Example: Hillary Clinton – “Barack Obama said in 2004 “that he basically agreed with the way George Bush was conducting the war.”".
Barely-True: There is misleading happening here, but statement is technically true – if only technically. It may be that a candidate has misstated a projection as a fact, or a belief as an analysis. Example: Hillary Clinton – “Obama voted for “tax subsidies and giveways” that have slowed oil companies from pursuing clean energy sources.”
False – It’s wrong. It may be wrong due to a mistake or to a lie, but it’s wrong. Example: Hilalry Clinton – “Obama “only wants your children to have health insurance.”"
Pants-on-fire False – It’s a lie. Or just plain, totally wrong. Example: Hillary Clinton – “I remember landing under sniper fire in Bosnia”.
Hillary Clinton’s results:
True: 31 (44.2%)
Mostly True: 7 (10%)
Half-True: 16 (22.9%)
Barely-True: 8 (11.4%)
False: 6 (8.6%)
Pants-on-fire false: 2 (2.9%)
TOTAL: 70 statements by Hillary Clinton were analysed by PolitiFact. Categories 1-3 describe statements that are either true outright, or within acceptable bounds of not-quite-truthfulness. For Senator Clinton, this area totals 77.1% of all statements made. Categories 5 & 6 describe either outright lies, or severely off-base remarks. Senator Clinton’s total of these is 11.4% of all statements analysed by PolitiFact.
Barack Obama’s results:
True: 15 (28.8%)
Mostly True: 10 (19.2%)
Half-True: 12 (23.1%)
Barely-True: 2 (3.8%)
False: 13 (25%)
Pants-on-fire false: 0
TOTAL: 52 statements by Barack Obama were analysed by PolitiFact. Senator Obama’s Category 1-3 rating is 71.1%, and his Category 5-6 rating is 25%.
This indicates the following to me:
1. Senator Clinton, the vast majority of the time, either sticks to the truth or keeps within shouting distance of it, as does Senator Obama.
2. Senator Clinton has been caught in a couple of outright lies (once about Bosnia, once when she twisted Obama’s words regarding Paksitan). Senator Obama, to date, has not.
3. Senator Obama, however, is prone to helpful misinterpretation of facts far more often than Senator Clinton is. Examples include several misquotes by him, of Senator Clinton, when his quote failed to capture the words or the spirit of what she was saying, or examples of when he got policy facts just plain wrong.
4. Unsurprisingly, MaCain is streets behind either Democrat in this measure.
There (up near the top) are the facts, and there’s (at the bottom) my analysis of them. (The reason I picked Clinton’s statements was that only she had entries in each category). Express agreement or disagreement as you see fit.
598
Mathew Cole
Is it true that Obama needs some cojones from Hillary and that he’s a pansy elitist?
Mathew, you have a bit of Clintonism going on with your number 1 assertion.
From the link you posted:
So after she had been on the ballot in Michigan (and Obama had not), a ballot which she had said “wouldn’t count for anything”, and had pledged to set aside while courting New Hampshire, she then gave an about face. At this stage she also had a polling and demographic advantage in Florida, along with all that being a frontrunner and household name in that state afforded. That’s changing the rules midgame in my book.
You know, Matthew, when you do the hard science, you are a most impressive commenter.
KR #599,
Not having examined either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton close-up, I couldn’t comment on cojones – or lack thereof – on either candidate.
Pancho #600,
1) Obama chose to withdraw his name from the ballot in Michigan. He could have stayed on it, but chose not to.
2) Obama’s campaign ran ads in Florida in the lead-up to the vote. Clinton’s didn’t. Sources:
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/palm/blog/2008/01/controversial_obama_ad_running.html
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/obama_airs_nati.html
3) After Obam withdrew from the Michigan ballot, his staff campaigned on behalf of “uncommitted”, who Clinton still beat 55%-40%.
4) You fail to address the arguments that Clinton made in the article, specifically
“I know other campaigns have tried to downplay the significance of these two states,” Clinton told reporters. “I think that is not a good strategy for Democrats or any of us who cares about the outcome of this election.”
Rating: Barely true. You do present a few facts, but out of context and distorted to suit your case.
EC #601,
Why, thank you! *blushes*
MC
Is the line “I’m not pandering” a lie?
By all accounts it is, obviously, but these are not the kind of statements which get examined.
Select the data, determine the result.
Mathew
Billary and Obami both signed pledges in black and white that they would agree not to seat the delegates from MI and FL. It seems to escaped Hillary’s twisted brain but they WERE NOT DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS. The US is STILL A DEMOCRACY. Just.
The people who should be strung up are the morons on the MI and FL democrat Committees who flaunted the rules to make themselves more important, then played chicken with the DNC and lost. I hope they have all been forced to resign.
Diogenes at 605
Spot on!
Dio #605,
1. How were the primaries undemocratic? Anyone could have their names on the ballot, and anyone had the right to campaign. To be sure, both Clinton and Obama promised not to (and Obama violated that promise – see above), but they could have if they’d wanted. Just because Obama didn’t win does not make them undemocratic. Further, if Obama is such a great democratist, then why has he publicly opposed re-votes for Florida and Michigan, and for that matter, why does he do so much better in caucuses (undemocratic, to say the least) than in primaries? If Obama truly supported democracy, he would refuse to compete in primaries, in which people must publicly state their candidate of choice, which are held without any real oversight, and which are usually held during working hours, thus skewing the demographics.
Sources:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/02/08/somewhat-super-saturday/ (Both articles, on different aspects)
2. Clinton hasn’t seated the delegates. She is calling for DNC to allow them to be seated – in effect, to release her from her promise. She is allowed to try to get them to change their minds, you know.
3. Add to this the idiots on the DNC who took all the delegates (rather than half, as the GOP did) to your list of people to tar and feather, and you’ll have my support.
Mathew –
1. The DNC asked all candidates to withdraw their names from the MI ballot. This was not ‘Obama’s choice’. Hillary stayed on and claimed it was no big deal, seeing as the vote ‘wouldn’t count’. For her to want it counted now as is, is cheating.
2. Obama had booked national ads before that pledge was made. And contrary to your argument, again from the link you provide:
I agree that the airing of these ads is a grey area, but no less grey than Clinton’s behaviour in the leadup to the vote – claiming she would ‘fight’ for Florida’s rights. She had also
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters?bid=45&pid=277369
Neither set of hands is clean here.
3. If all of ‘uncommitted’ were for Obama, why are only 2/3 of them claiming they will now vote for him? Further, there were mobilisations of Dems in MI to vote strategically for Romney, as well as Obama and Edwards supporters who would have stayed home. This contest was just not right, and rightfully, it won’t be seated as is.
4. I don’t think ‘the other campaigns’ (read as either Obama and Edwards or just Obama) have played down either state. Obama has repeatedly said that he would accept a 50/50 split. Obviously Clinton does not want to accept that because it does help her catch up. But if she really wanted them included, and included NOW, she could take this 50/50 split, and those states are back in.
Ultimately something that does not have an adverse effect on the course of the contest will be settled and the delegations will be seated. Dean has stated as much, and rooms are booked for all of the delegates at Denver. I would argue that it is not in Clinton’s interest to have the matter settled at present (because of the uncertainty that this affords her and the actual endpoint) so she continues to press for an outcome that she knows will be unacceptable to Obama and the DNC. Which is a fair tactic in some respects, but she is definitely not just just battling for democracy here.
FINNS & GG and the far flung blogoshere
“ a more perfect union …of mathematics vs racial equality values tested
A NEW statistical electability black hole , one of the the aces still kept in the hand ,
But first , to fill in the Obama’s current ads & minus’s in political mathematics
Delegate race :
Obama I estimate will win the delegate race 51% to 49%
This insignificant 2% margin does not justify selecting Obama as Nominee. Again such a small 2% margin doesn’t justify selecting Obama as your Nominee as if this is the criteria , a delegate winner could win based solely on all unwinnable ‘red’ States primary wins !
Popular Vote :
Obama I estimate will win the popular vote by 50.5% to 49.5% (Hillary now leads)
How the Michigan &Florida delegate numbers dispute is handled is still unknown
Irrespective one can reasonably assume the DNC Democrat Leadership will publicly include the registered Democrat voters of Michigan & Florida in their popular vote count. They know the Democrat faithfull (two million of them) wanted to register their voice & preference despite KNOWING there were no delegates up for grabs.
2 million registered Democrats said this is a Primary showing our preference & 860,000 voted anti Hillary.This reality will force the 2,013,647 registered Democrat voters from Michigan & Florida to be counted in the popular count
So Obama wins the popular vote 50.5% to 49.5% ,a mere 1% margin that does not justify selecting Obama as Nominee.It is not a popularity contest amongst the faithful where one wins by only 1% , your Nominee must be most electable to win
‘a Political Party’s first priority is to win’ or is it in 2008 , a question : Both mathematical measurements do show small Obama wins likely. Usually such wins would be also supported by polls strongly showing the delegate winner was ALSO the most electable. However the problem in 2008, this is not the case , the delegate winner (‘black’) by a small margin is not the same Candidate the polls show is by far the most electable. The Partys problem is choosing between Hillary who should be Nominee (as she’s by far statistically more electable) vs Obama (less electable but ‘black’) with the worry perception the narrow delegate winner (and ‘black’) being overturned for a ‘white’ may smack of breaching a Party core value & of racial inequality…when this is untrue. The fact Obama ‘change message’ (but not detailed) appeals to those disenchanted with current politics makes Obama a double Party & SD’s nightmare. The statistical evidence showing Hillary being more electability is :
Obama having in my opinion won both above counts STARTS with a narrowly better argument than Hillary to be Nominee & is entitled to , but the narrowness of his victory only means he gets a narrow benefit of the doubt on statistical grounds regarding whether he is the more electable, ie if more likely to win.
The ‘more electability’ Political question , being of 5 parts :
The first part is the National comparative polls : Hillary/Obama vs McCain show Hillary with a huge lead meaning her base is solid and widespread with more general capacity to pick up more E/V vs Obama’s by comparison is shaky.
The 2nd part is key States E/V comparative polls : Hillary/Obama vs McCain in key swing States show Hillary can win the E/V States necessarily required to win POTUS whereas Obama is very unlikely to do so on those polls , making POTUS unlikely. Obama instead will pick up ‘useless’ (for POTUS purposes) , big votes in already ‘blue’ States that Hillary will also win and in a lot of red’ States neither Hillary or Obama can win.
The 3rd part is use of comparative polls : it should be noted that if the comparative Polls were absolutely guaranteed , then the SDs already would have delivered Hillary the Nomineeship. The reason this has not occurred.is US polling standards are behind Australia’s partly caused by their profit motive in each rushing out polls to earn money. The result is the samples are lower than ‘oz’ causing the consequential moe higher , the non compulsory aspect makes the moe’s worsened again, turnout numbers are unknown , different methodologies used re the voter base between likely voter vs registered voters & how successful the losing candidate will be to get their core to turn out for the nominee winner. Overriding all is the polling done really needed to establish by more than one poll in a state & with much larger samples the continuing core Democrat support vs McCain and the quantum of switch or will not vote voters separately which runs counter to the profit motive , logistics etc and hence comparative polls are used & are more saleable. This flaw is somewhat similar to the ‘oz’ polls flaw where they do not poll ‘swing voters’and do National and State polls. One could argue as a result not to take any notice of comparative polling. However the comparative polling is a fact of life and taking account of the above should be used as a guide to electability with other relevant psephologically factors. On this basis , Hillary vs Obama using comparative polling means Hillary has a massive edge as a starting guide saying she is far more electable which not only cancels Obama’s 2% delegate lead advantage , but places her well infront due to the swing states value
The 4th part is the key E/V States won in Primarys by the candidates : Hillary has won 3 of these key States (Pennsylvania , Ohio & Florida ) very decisively over Obama. These clear Primary wins also make the comparative polling results favoring Hillary in these key E/V States even more credible. Hillary has also won most of the ‘big States.meaning its easier to get to the 270 E/V to win POTUS. However the E/V Primary results in the 3 key swing States mentioned is of more significance proving a massive advantage over Obama on more electable, based on actual key swing States Primary results
The 5th part is the mathematical demographic is double count Obama negative :
Hillary has a substantial statistical advantage over Obama in demographic calculations when allied to polls that have an reasonable moe.. Taking a National Poll (and there have been similar others previously with similar results) with a reasonable moe 3.1% of all voter types in the last 2 weeks , 30% of Hilary voters (Obama voters 21%) allegedly would vote for McCain if their Candidate was not the Nominee.Whilst the %’s may be historically high , this race has also been usually vicious & ‘bitter’ between their respective supporters so history is not necessarily a safe guide. More likely is a lot of Hillary voters will vote McCain & a lot of Obama supporters just will not vote. Almost all political pundits agree with this likely difference between how the 2 disaffected Hillary & Obama voting blocks will respond.
The mathematical theoretical effect is those Hillarys voters switching to McCain not only reduces the Obama vote by one, but adds one vote against Obama to McCain. Whereas an Obama supporter not voting at all (& so not for Hillary) just reduces the Hillary vote by one but McCain does not get that additional vote as they didn’t vote. Taking the above Poll of 30% & 21% as a starting example , would mean Hillary needs to find 9% of other voters & Obama needs to find the equivalent of 18% of Hillary’s existing voters from other voting groups. The cause of the differential is the demographics etc of a LARGER block of ‘centre’ Hillary voters disaffected by Obama’s nomination who’ll switch to McCain as they do have some commonality of political affiliation with McCain views as opposed Obama’s more ‘northeast “liberal Democrat” liberal views vs a SMALLER bloc of Obama supporters who’d never vote Repug and who will simply not vote at all. This is subject to the inherent questions posed in part 3 , polling in the US. However the polls of Hillary’s key demographic support base & Obama’s are generally support both the differential & the likely respective Candidate’s core voter response
Therefore re the 5th part , the double dipping Hillary advantage , even if one contracts the starting poll example figures of 30% and 21% , there is a significant margin of disaffected Hillary voters vs Obama’s AND with the additional double dipping effect of lots of Hillary’s switching to McCain unlike Obama’s, makes Obama’s electability significantly less than Hillary’s , without offsetting massive Obama theoretical voters who have NOT voted at the Primarys and are not caught by the example Poll listed and whose existence is questionable at best.
Conclusion The 5 statistical parts listed as starting point guides all show Hillary as far more electable than Obama , a fact the SD’s likely may ignore lacking courage courage to face down racial equality principles do apply equally to black & white regarding the least electable white or black
Pancho #608,
1. Obama could have stayed on the ballot. He chose not to, in order to oblige the DNC. Debate the contrast as you please, but he DID have the option of defying them, as Clinton did (and has paid the price for, since then). He chose not to.
2. Fine. Neither set of hands is entirely clean. But don’t then trash Clinton while deifying Obama – after all, his hands are also not clean.
3. You fail to answer my point. Obama actively encouraged people to vote “uncommitted” as an anti-Hilalry gesture. “Uncommitted” got just 40% of the vote against Hillary’s 55%, so unless you are alleging poll fraud, what’s your point? I do agree that MI has a far better case for a re-do rather than seating the original, but to simply keep them out is stupid and will cost the Democrats big in November.
4. What’s the point of a 50/50 split? It’s a mockery, especially in Florida, where there was a significant gap between the results for Clinton and Obama. So of course Obama would love a 50/50 split – it diasallows his poor vote result, and denies Clinton a chance to catch up. Certainly, Obama’s position isn’t born out of idealism here. And he has specifically, and repeatedly, stated that bhe believes in counting every vote and every voice. Where’s the action backing that up when it’s inconvenient for him?
MC –
1. Obama is part of a PARTY. He abided by their rules.
2. I didn’t trash Clinton for campaigning in FL, only responded to your argument that Obama was the sole one who did.
3. Obama was not on the ballot. Dunno how else to put it if you don’t get that. Further, the vote has been deemed unconstitutional by MI courts, AND the MI legislature was the one who put an end to any talk of a rvote, not Obama.
4. The mockery is the whole FL & MI business from beginning to end. Personally, I will be very surprised if FL is not seated at 1/2 vote value. But this is not what Hillary is seeking. And you are arguing that Hillary’s position is that for the good of the Dems that FL be involved. If that is the case she can have it sorted now with a 50/50. I do not for a minute think that she will accept this, or think she doesn’t know that Obama and the DNC will reject what she is proposing. So my conclusion stands: It is a stunt and she is trying to buy time.
Ron #609,
Very wordy, but having read through it, I have this to say:
You have good points, but you should (for the benefit of sceptics) support them with sources and evidence.
Some movement on the RCP averages for NC which has just seen Obama move from a 7% lead to 7.8%. The change is due to a …surprise!…Zogby poll giving Obama a 14% lead. What are they sniffin’?
FG – Check the demographic breakdowns and reasoning on why most pollsters have crosstabbed like they are currently doing for NC here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/african-american-turnout-in-north.html
In short, I’ll be very very surprised if Obama’s win in NC is not closer to 14% than 7%. I think Zogby is (finally) in for a win.
MC,
Once again a very intelligent summary of the situation. I have looked forward to your intermittant contributions to the debate.
One thing this Primary contest has shown is the preparedness of US citizens to participate in the process. The registration of voters is wonderful and shows a resurgence of interest in the political process.
Democracy is a game for every one to play and those who suggest that the process should be truncated because of their partisan viewpoints clealy don’t understand the resurgence of political activism in the US. More power to the people is what I say.
Clearly Obama took an early lead. But, as the process continues, questions have emerged that he has not to date been able to effectively counter. Hillary, on the other hand, started slowly but is certainly on a surge. Tomorrow’s Primaries in Indiana and NC will probably fiurther muddy the waters. But, I believe that Obama should continue the quest if only to re establish his credibility.
The question of Michigan and Florida has to be sorted. It is gross stupidity to expect the energised electorate to accept a situation where whold chunks of the population are disenfranchised because of a technicality. It can’t stand and it won’t stand.
To those deserately counting delegates or asserting that one candidate has a lead, so therefore has a moral entitlement to the nomination, one can only say that the SDs will decide what is in the best interests of the Party and who will achieve the ultimate success in November. That is their right and that is their duty.
So let us not hear of sour grapes and absolutes. The system allows many twists and turns. Be satisfied that the process is happening and eventually a candidate will emerge.
Pancho – you have raised my spirits. Anything under 10 will leave Hillary with room to move.
613
Ferny Grover
What are they sniffen’?
Ah, chairs, maybe?
(I hear it’s popular in WA)
609
Ron
More Ron that one can read in a sitting.
How about bullet points?
Mon May 5: Matthew, more hard science here, mate!
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AnMiZXhJYV.uOc7mt8kDqqJW_b4F
Mon May 5:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Apr0Htd9.Qq5KhL8.a_AveEl6ysC
Tues May 6:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AvIZoi0Ohe_zwnqcQKAsAFo0vTYC
This is a sobering piece for the Clinton supporters who think the Super’s are going to rescue her:
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/05/barack_obamas_goldmine_1.html
GG at 615
I don’t want to burst your bubble or anything but it is very likely that the numbers will establish a de facto nomination sometime in July. Just add up the pledged delegates, add to that the super delegates than endorse one of the other, add the supers that declare their vote based on a logical construct (e.g. voting fo the winner of my state, or voting for the leading in pledged delegates, or voting for the winner of the popular vote, etc., etc.).
There comes a point in the process when one of the candidates cannot win – and when that moment happens – it’s game over – with the single proviso of the process that plays out during the convention itself. If Howard Dean does his job the process will be smooth and by the numbers (don’t you just love that expression).
610
Mathew Cole
3. People may not have bothered to turn up if their choice of candidate was known to have removed himself from the ballot. This argument that the ‘uncommitteds’ is the full vote for Obama is quite specious.
Michigan is clear cut in my opinion. Obama complied with the rules (OK he may have known he was in for a thrashing with rust belt whites) and Clinton did not. They cannot seat Michigan on Clinton’s claim that she won it.
Zogby polls seem to over estimate Obama while ARG and SUSA seem to do the same for Clinton.
That being said, I still expect Obama to win NC by around 10.
Catrina,
Maybe, maybe not. Show me 2024 committed delgates. Not projections, not wishful thinking based on emotive extrapolations from guesses based on moral certitudes contrived from the true essence of jazzy swizzle sticks.
Can’t, I didn’t think so.
615
Greeensborough Growler
You OK, Growler?
Have you been placed on medication? Tranquilisers??
Are you really GG?
Come on lad, there’s not one vitriolic barb, not one fiesty jab…nuthin’!
All this equanimity, it ain’t right! Is there anything we can do to get back the old GG? Do you need help?
(puts tongue back in cheek)
624
Greeensborough Growler
There’s a boy, feelin’ better now?
KR – the feisty jab is in the middle (and it’s worth a hat tip, slipped in there as it is):
“But, I believe that Obama should continue the quest if only to re establish his credibility.”
#614 – [In short, I’ll be very very surprised if Obama’s win in NC is not closer to 14% than 7%. I think Zogby is (finally) in for a win] – Zorby predicted 14% for Obama in NH. So i wouldn’t trust it very much. like i said before NC is looking very similar to NH.
NC:
RCP Average 04/28 – 05/05 – 50.1 42.3 Obama +7.8
Zogby Tracking 05/04 – 05/05 643 LV 51 37 Obama +14.0
SurveyUSA 05/02 – 05/04 – 50 45 Obama +5.0
Insider Advantage 05/04 – 05/04 781 LV 48 45 Obama +3.0
PPP (D) 05/03 – 05/04 870 LV 53 43 Obama +10.0
Rasmussen 05/01 – 05/01 831 LV 49 40 Obama +9.0
Research 2000 04/29 – 04/30 500 LV 51 44 Obama +7.0
Mason-Dixon 04/28 – 04/29 400 LV 49 42 Obama +7.0
NH:
RCP Average 01/05 – 01/07 - 38.3 30.0 18.3 5.7 Obama +8.3
Suffolk/WHDH 01/06 – 01/07 500 LV 39 34 15 4 Obama +5.0
American Res. Group 01/06 – 01/07 600 LV 40 31 20 4 Obama +9.0
ReutersC-Span/Zogby 01/05 – 01/07 862 LV 42 29 17 5 Obama +13.0
Rasmussen 01/05 – 01/07 1774 LV 37 30 19 8 Obama +7.0
CNN/WMUR/UNH 01/05 – 01/06 599 LV 39 30 16 7 Obama +9.0
Marist 01/05 – 01/06 636 LV 36 28 22 7 Obama +8.0
CBS News 01/05 – 01/06 323 LV 35 28 19 5 Obama +7.0
Final Results - - 36.4 39.0 16.9 4.6 Clinton +2.6
Pancho,
I’ve been fishing and had to learn how to bait my hook behind a tree to catch some really wily old carps.
Cheers.
620
HarryH
I posted about this a few days back. People who know reckon his database is commercially valued at $200m over time.
Smooth operator.
Find Sade on youtube and play it.
Hillary can go sink a beer and play bowls.
So?
NC demographics are vastly different to NH. The pre-polling seems similar, but my guess is the final result will be very different. Tomorrow will tell.
Finns – “like i said before NC is looking very similar to NH.” – except for the the demographics, which have predicted the races far more accurately than the polling to date. I am going with Obama +15 in NC, Clinton +4 in IN. Throw down some predictions!
Mathew
#612
Thats fair points you make . I’m english concise dyslixic & elewhere quite honestly do pass my political papers over to more skilled literary colleagues. As to sources , thats are fair point. The stats on National % vs McCain are on one section of RealclearPolitics, Swing states Pensylvania Ohio & Florida elswhere there listed , there’s a computayion sub menu of all registered democrat votes cast including Michigan & Florida , the Poll was National AP one 28/4/08 moe 3.1% , the 3 key state actual Primary wins % are on the CNN site , the demographic splits are from numerous exit polls by Primary (but one time I quoted Hillary got 75% of the working class towns votes in Ohio & this was a national trend which after being challenged Diogenes did the exercise & agreed with me) , Hillary core are the working class , rednecks, poor non college educated , female , asian , jews,, majority of Catholics , over 50’s & hispanic, the acual primary results & in my haste to post excluded Edwards etc and the combined 2 Primaary vote was 2,278,257. Florida were 1,684, 390 regidstered Democrats Hillary 50% , Obama 33% Edwards 14% others 3% and Michigan 593,867 registered Democrat voters Hillary 55% incommitted 40% others 5% from ABC site ,
the 2% delgate win was my estimation about 8 weeks ago& I’m stuck with that
and the 1% popular win I calculated about after the Ohio primary, my estimations
ASIDE
2,278,257 registered Democrats knew the Primary dates & turned up to vote and said to DNC head offivce p….off do , this is our Party they voted freely, by secret ballot , had a choice of Hillary vs Edwards /Obama in Florida and Hillary vs anti Hillary in Michigan. This is what happened.
There is not a political commentator in the US even from Obama’s camp that disputes that these results are what was expected & would have occurred had there been full campaigning. The polls in January also support these results
for these January held Primarys
the DNC lead by Howard Dean , Obama’s factional ally rely on that the dates were not satisfactory to the DNC or other States. The dates ?? if someone like Magabe denied his opposition key states where the opposition was strong in based on the suitability of dates & almost 2.3 million still turned up to vote , we’d call that vote rigging. The consequence of Dean & others decision was to materially assist their factionn ally Obama & Hillary was faced with uposetting SD’s or challenging an undemocratic decision and hurting the Party
I rounded the votes to solely a duel contest Hillary vs Obama giving her around
57% to 43%
Evening all- a quick check in with no time to review the days prior posts – so in 20 words or less (which excludes some of you) can someone give me the rundown on the SD’s : and anything else worth noting.
Thanks
I’ll stick with my prediction from the other day:
NC: 55 – 45 Obama
IN: 51.5 – 48.5 Clinton
Pancho, the RACE (Black) in NC factor is being neutralised by the “Higher Income & education” in NH. My prediction is Hillary by 5 in Indiana Jones and Obama by 2 or 50/50 in Sweet Caroline.
North Carolina Demographics (2006 Census ACS)
* Population: 8,856,505
* Gender: 49.0 male, 51.0 female
* Race: 70.3 white, 21.4 black, 1.8 asian, 0.5 indian, 0.1 pacific islander, 6.7 hispanic,
* Age: 75.7% 18 years and over; 12.1% 65 years and over; Median age:
* Median Household Income: $42,625
* Families Below Poverty Level: 10.7%
* Education: 10.9% of those over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher
New Hampshire Demographics (2006 Census ACS)
* Population: 1,314,895
* Gender: 49.2 male, 50.8 female
* Race: 95.1 white, 1.1 black, 2.0 asian, 0.5 indian, 0.0 pacific islander, 2.3 hispanic,
* Age: 77.4% 18 years and over; 12.3% 65 years and over; Median age:
* Median Household Income: $59,683
* Families Below Poverty Level: 4.9%
* Education: 14.1% of those over 25 have a bachelor’s degree or higher
Jan at 634
Nothing has changed on the SD front since my last update.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=848&cp=6#comment-149161
A couple more for Obama are expected later today.
Jen – not Jan!
Beware!
Rant!
Laura Bush pulls a news conference to slam the Myanmar junta over their ‘not caring about their own people’ over their failure to notify the population about the impending cyclone.
I’ve got one word for you Laura Bush:
Katrina
The freakin’ gall of that woman.
End of rant.
Ed Koch says what I am saying, only better:
“I believe that, if he is the Democratic candidate for president, Senator Obama will lose in November. There are many people in the Democratic Party and its leadership who feel that way. They are told that, nevertheless, the party must accept Obama even if he arrives at the convention with fewer committed delegates than needed to win the nomination. They say that to deprive him of victory under all of these circumstances would so enrage his supporters that they would either stay home in November or cross party lines and vote for Senator John McCain. Many superdelegates who will be making the decision to nominate the Democratic candidate will be told that they will permanently damage the party by causing a defection of the black vote if they deprive Obama of victory. There is no doubt that were the superdelegates to do what they were appointed to do – provide to the best of their ability a candidate who is perceived to be best able to win in November against the Republican candidate – they will be vilified by many Democrats if they do not select Obama.”
Catrina- cheers!
I appreciate it; too busy drinking wine in front of the fire with dear friend so will get back alter.
Grinch – glad to see you are alive and well.
xx
Ron at 609, you’ve become a parody, youre post are purely for comedy value only. Barely worth responding to but I like the sport of it all
Let me stop you at “Obama wins delegate count 51% to 49%”: you must realise that this is THE END. Full stop. Its who win the most delegates.
The rest of the post is a waste of space.
Adam, he also said: “But politics is a complex business. If Clinton carries Indiana and then goes on to win Kentucky and West Virginia, her chances will greatly improve. Stay tuned. It ain’t over till it’s over”.
That’s why the preoccupation of the Obama supporters here on the maths and ignoring the complex political juxtaposition is really amusing.
That would be the same Ed Koch who came out in 2004 and declared that Kerry did not have the cojones to ‘fight terrorism’ and he was, after a lifetime in the Democratic party, going to vote for Bush?
That Ed Koch?
Oh, how funny that he’d be stumping for Hillary! LOL
Gee, thanks Adam for that unbiased opinion of Former New York Mayor and self described diehard Hillary Clinton supporter Ed Koch.
Knock me down with a feather.
If Bill Kristol and Ed Koch aren’t good mates, then I’m the Buddha:
“As long as Kennedy and Robert Byrd are considered major leaders of the Democratic Party, and while we’re seeing radical candidates like Howard Dean, whose radical-left supporters have been described by the press as ‘Deaniacs,’ the Democratic Party will be limited in its ability to serve the country well in times of crisis and war like we face now.”
Koch thinks Kerry is putting on a facade by campaigning as tough on terrorism, and worries the Democratic nominee plans to pull American troops from Iraq prematurely, signaling to al-Qaida and terror-supporting Mideast dictators that the U.S. doesn’t have the will to fight terrorism.
Koch has been impressed with Bush’s response to the Sept. 11 attacks, and says terrorism must rank as the most important issue for voters in the November elections.
He says he supports Bush because “I think the Bush Doctrine of pre-emption is crucial. Bush says ‘We will go after the terrorists and the countries that harbor them.’ And he has demonstrated that he means it by invading Afghanistan and Iraq, both threats to their regions and to the U.S.”
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=40088
Adam, why not actually pick a Democrat to talk with some authority about the Democratic party?
Closet Neocons like Ed Koch don’t make your argument look, well, very convincing! LOL
The same Ed Koch who gets on Fox News at regular intervals and praises the the Iraq War?
yep..that be him.
Go Hillary…obliterate those towel heads.
I recall Finns having the best record with recent tipping but Finns couldn’t all those poor uneducated voters be Repugs anyway, listening to Rush and polishing their guns? I’m going NC to Obi by 7% and IN to Hills by 8%. Little change one way or the other.
607 Mathew
It’s sort of a fundamental for a democratic election for the candidate to have their name on the ballot. Even Saddam Hussein let the opposition have that. That sorts Michigan. In Florida it’s not a democratic vote without a campaign, advertising, meeting the voters, making speeches, getting the grass roots party officials out etc. That’s how the voters decide who to support.
Current polls indicate Obi is ahead of Hill in Michigan so 50/50 would be fair. Hill would beat Obi by about 10% in Florida. They should split the delegates accordingly but only give each 0.5 vote to stop these dic*heads from doing this again. And the SDs who voted to go early and created all the problems should lose their vote completely.
Well given the arguments in favour of Clinton are now rating 9/10 on the convoluted scale – I think we can conclude its close to over.
My call on the Clinton concession date is 25th May.
I’m actually surprised that Ed Koch isn’t backing McCain.
I mean, one hundred years? Ed, it’s a bargain! You did, after all, vote for Bush.
Finns, two points on your Statewide demographics:
1. Almost the entire 21% of black voters are Democratic. Which corresponds to the 40%+ who have pre-polled. This will probably end up in the high 30s.
2. The education point notes 11% of Bachelors over 25. This does not account for the 3 huge college towns in NC – who would mostly be under 25 – and who have been actively pursued and targeted. I have a hunch this lot is a good part of the 488,000 early voters as well.
Don’t you love American democracy http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389×3246304
“In April 2008 when Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita announced the release of “record high” voter registration rolls, with 4.3 million voters set to vote in the Tuesday May 6 primary, he didn’t mention that a whopping 1,134,427 voter registrations have been cancelled.”
“I’ll confess now that I will be silently praying to God that Hillary wins tomorrow and thereafter, even though I know it is foolish to think the Almighty – in whom I believe – intervenes in elections. Ridiculous, but who knows?”
Koch went on to express hope that Clinton and John McCain carry the day for their respective party’s nominations, calling them “the pick of the litter.”
As you can see KR, Good Ol ED is quite happy with either Hill or Bomb Bomb
full link
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2008/01/koch-praying-for-hillary-holdi.html
Rusty, some more on that story here – may not be entirely underhanded:
‘According the the most recent 2006 estimates, the state of Indiana has an approximate population of 6.3 million people. Given that probably at least a good 20-25% of that population would be too young to vote, a voter registration of 5.4 million would represent more than 100% of the voting age population of Indiana.
4.3 million would still represent a better than 90% registration, which is truly impressive in American politics.
So if there were 5.4 million registered voters, it’s a good thing some of them were purged from the rolls.’
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/5/141313/9290/18/509493
#651 – Amigo, it would be interesting to see the impact of Obama’s Philly Mark 2 on Wright on the Blacks. It has NOT been discussed and analysed much but there has been some rumbling among the Blacks, who supported Wright, over Obama throwing of the Pastor under the bus. I will be surprised if Obama gets the usual 80%+
If anything the whole Wright issue will see a closing of ranks around Obama as far as the black vote goes. It will be seen as an attempt to derail ‘their’ candidate. Allegience is to Obama, not Wright. The folks of NC only know Wright as a distant loudmouth, whereas Obama is their candidate.
The Obama supporting black vote is not going to vote for Hillary. If there was a fear, it was that they would stay home. But after showing 41% in the pre-polls, I think we can conclude that the black vote is out in force, and this is a big plus for Obama.
Finnigans #628 Clinton cried before New Hampshire. She was all warm and sensitive. The chances of her pulling that stunt off after toting guns and generally remodelling herself as an erzatz redneck, Iran-nuking valkyrie are…shall we say…somewhat limited.
Finns @ 655 [there has been some rumbling among the Blacks]
Crikey Finns, soon we’ll be hearing the drums … the incessant beat of those blasted drums… . Quick, pour me another gin and tonic, I think the drums are getting closer.
Adam
#640 is right
Its what I said at #633.
The race card has been used on SD’s over the last month which explains the SD movement to Obama since then despite Obama’s bad 4 weeks when the SD’s endorsements should gone the reverse way
The left media & Obama supportersbought the cubboard message without checking the man & the skeletons inside
Re Michigan , Is anyone suggesting Obama’s vote would have increased IF Obama’s name was on the ballot If not your argument collapses & so it should Hillary had around 15% plus leads in polls in both on a duel opponent basis
Ron – “Re Michigan , Is anyone suggesting Obama’s vote would have increased IF Obama’s name was on the ballot”
I think everyone is suggesting that. Also if the lesser known candidates had been allowed to campaign. Also if the vote (according to the courts) was constitutional. You’ve got a tough gig defending that one.
Counting Michigan is crazy – like if one team, having been told by the organisers that the game is cancelled, don’t turn up, and then the other team tries to claim a win on forfeit. By all means feel sorry for the MI voters, but don’t take it out on Obama.
Counting Florida is arguable, but it’s not enough to make a difference.
Wright is a liability to Obama, and may yet do him considerable damage in the general, but it’s all too late to save Hillary. If Wright had burst forth any time before about late February, he would have had an impact on this race. Since then it’s just been about Hillary (for whatever motives, good or bad) prolonging things – the race is over.
Bring on tomorrow.
ahem, from Drudge, quoting Hillary staff:
Pancho
#660
The Polls in January are consistent with Hillary’s 55% to Obama’s 40% result
so thats my basis. Your view Obama’s vote would have been higher is your opinion not suppotered by Polls
Also Obama encouraged voters to come out & vote anti Hillary as ‘uncommitted’
So does when Obama says come & vote ‘uncommitted’ thats not as appealing as saying come out and vote “Obama’
There is the actual result , the Polls & Obama’s active pursuit of voters to vote
against a partisan opinion.
Disallowing FL & MI is US style vote rigging and 593,867 people including Obama & Edwards supporters if they could vote on the DNC would throw the lot out
the total quoted voting was MI only , not including Florida 1,684,390
Oh the Finns, now it’s “the preoccupation of the Obama supporters here on the maths”. You do better making yourself sound silly than anything we could say. You just dont get it. To paraphrase, “It’s the maths, stupid”
As with the Federal election, where it was not point arguing with Glen, Nostra and co., there is actually no point in arguing with Finns, Ron and GG, although I have been as guilty as most. Just as it took the fed election to prove the others wrong, it will take Obama’s nomination to prove Hillary supporters wrong, and they wont give an inch a second earlier than that.
No Ron, my position is supported by reality, the rules, and the interpretation of the Constitution by Michigan Courts. And the DNC. And the way things have played out and will play out. Politics is numbers, and they are with Obama.
Pancho, stop being preoccupied with the maths
Why would the average SD (a middle-ranking, career politician whose overwhelming interest is self-advancement and preservation) want to take the risk of overturning the elected nominee?
Answer: they wouldn’t, unless they’re committed to Team Clinton for some particular historical reason, and surely nearly all those SDs are already in the Clinton column.
Then there’s the minor point that all the SD traffic has been one way recently, and it’s all to Obama.
So SDs won’t save her, and it’s mathematically impossible for the elected delegates to do so.
Sorry Andrew. This is my new bible: “Olbermann Defines Hillary’s Goalposts” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9qd-P2bIiY&eurl=http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/6/3270/33210/647/509889
It has helped me keep track of what is important.
Dyno, stop being preoccupied with the maths
love the clip Pancho. Sums it up perfectly.
And right on cue! Team Hillary are now ignoring 2024.5 and demanding 2208. Shameless.
http://washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080506/NATION/525934081/1001
Pancho you know the then polls do not support your view Obama would have got more votes , he chased voters to vote ‘uncommitted’ & got 238,000
Your suggesting abide by the DNC Rules. I’m saying the rules were used as a rort to favor Obama at Hillary’ expense by Obama’s mate Dean & DNC levying the harshest possible penalty to disenchancise 2,278,257 people , all registered voters , including approx 1 million of Obama & Edwards supporters.
over a date(s) that didn’t suit the DNC & some States. The 2.3 million people agree with me , they voted.
The good thing is Pancho that this appears like the last ditch pathetic action by a team that knows that they are going down
Dyno
#669 re SD’s
As I said previously , if the delegate leader winner wins because he won all his delegate votes in unwinnable ‘red’ States , do you still make him the Nominee ,
because this is the Obama supporters argument ie. the delegate winner must be the Nominee fullstop. It is nonsense political reasoning
I do not agree , I think electability should be the decider when the two are only 2% of each other
Who would have thought, just 6 months ago, that the unstoppable juggernaut of the Clinton machine would be crippled by a virtually unknown junior senator from Illinois. What happened? It was meant to be a cakewalk! Yet here we are 6 months later and Team Clinton is behind on all counts that matter as is trying every desperate measure to stay in the race, hoping against hope that something or someone will change the trajectory.
She was the inevitable nominee at unbankable odds just 6 months ago. Inevitability is no longer hers, but his – and that says all that needs to be said about her ‘electability’.
Ron, the DNC charter has Primary rules for a reason. They have existed for longer than 08. They were not invented to rort Hillary. She accepted them till she was losing.
In any case, the argument is academic. You say ‘the then polls’ – which indicates an acknowledgement that Obama has picked up support since. How and why? Because of the greater publicity and recognition he has had since January. This is the rationale for big states to hold their Primaries later – so the nomination doesn’t just go to the populist candidate or the one with the biggest chequebook.
Which makes the contest and its results unfair by the rules and regulations that the DNC has developed over many years. In addition to this Obama was not on the ballot.
In my opinion, not only is your argument technically flawed – with regards to the rules – it is also ethically flawed. The long and short of it all is that those that matter in all this, the DNC, hold a position similar to mine than yours, and Hillary will not be allowed to bully her way into another pile of delegates.
Evening All!
Would anyone know when the polls in Indiana & North Carolina open in our time?
When will we start getting results?
Thx
Vote1Maxine at 679
Its already started – over the next few hours we should see some exit polling info – and real results around mid morning our time.
N.C. Voters Line Up Early, By Julie Bosman
RALEIGH – Early-bird primary voters formed a line more than 80 people deep at a polling station in a leafy neighborhood here, camping out on lawn chairs as they waited for the doors to open.
Response to Andrew Sullivan’s Hillary for VP piece: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dylan-loewe/on-an-obamaclinton-ticket_b_100169.html
With a good bit about the bogus electability trope.
Thx Catrina! Any info / intell on whats happening in Indiana?
Pancho
#678
your post is full of inaccuacys. Let me list the relevant pointsre MI & FL
Obama played by the DNC rules. No
a/ IN MI, Obama chose to remove his name supposedly supporting the ‘Rules’ and then deliberately flouted those rules by team obama actively campaigning to vote anti Hillary and vote “uncommitted
b/ had the ‘uncommitted’ exceeded Hillary’s vote , Obama would have claimed a victory , why else did he & his team campaign.
c/ the elections were held democratically , people freely voted 600, 000 in MI
no allegations of vote tampering but because Obama lost heavily by 15 % he now wants to support the very ‘Rules” he flouted in point a/
d/ Anyone including Obama was free to put their name on the Ballot. Obama decided to take his name OFF the ballot. Its not the voters fault he did so. You say he did because he followed the ‘rules’ (which he later flouted. He wanted his cake & eat it in case he lost
e/ In FL , unlike Hillary , Obama actually ran campaign ads. How is that consistent with your assertion Obama followed the rules
f/ In BOTH MI and FL , Obama overtly breached the DNC Rules he is now hiding behind. in both cases his breachs were to win votes in these supposedly invalid
Primarys that he & you took place
g/ it is false to suggest Hillary objected to voiding FL after the event. She did so in the weeks before.
h/ Primary results can only be taken as at when they wwere held and then Hillary won both by over 155 . The Plls taken then support that. The 2.3 million people democratically are entitled to to have their full delegates despite Obama after the result and after cheating the rules by campaigning in both saying oh lets now abide by the Rules & void the 2 Primarys
Vote1Maxine at 683
Nothing on my radar for the moment.
All I can recommend is to open up a box set of the Alien DVD collection. By the time you finish Alien most everyone hear will be asleep. By the time you finish Aliens there should be exit polling data. After Alien III speculation should be rampant – and by the time you have done Alien Resurrection you will be able to understand the frequent inferences to the Alien Mother here on PB and what’s more – some real information should be available.
Ron at 684
673
Pancho
That means that HRC is now changing her opponent from Obama to the DNC!
Great.
That’s poking the rattlesnake, and is sure to get the party people very anxious about just how divisive she’s prepared to get.
My hunch is that this will bring on the Supers more quickly to shut her down, even before all the primaries are finished.
It’s that, or watch an (un)civil war break out.
She’s on thin ice here. Very thin.
Ron at 684
Loaded question that is false. Obama did not campaign. There was a protest vote against Hillary Clinton leaving her name on the ballot. Getting up and going out to protest, or lying in bed knowing that the vote does not count – ummm, let me think about that for a while – nah, no need – your point just does not make any sense.
Ron at 684
And Ron – you do remember that the disallowed primary vote was not the only thing being voted on in Florida at the time don’t you? That didn’t slip you memory did it?
653
HarryH
“pick of the litter”? LOL
Someone should tell Ed Koch that littering is an offence! LOL
What a lot of Zionist garbage disguised as reasonable opinion. This guy bats for the other side for the same reason Lieberman does: they are both far-right paid up members of Likud.
And yet, after a totally failed war, the war crimes, the misery of the millions displaced, the endless drain on America’s wealth and hundreds of thousands dead, nobody ever questions these mad old J#ws about their “patriotism”!
Wake up America.
Harry at 620, that’s the Link of the Week. Really learnt something about Obi and his team. Geez I love the skinny on the back room stuff where the deals go down. Taken the liberty to post a few pertinent paras so that nervous nellies who are rooting for The Kid can quit it with their worry wart routines.
“An odd dynamic is at work as the primaries wind down, one that has made victory for Barack Obama all but certain, despite plummeting poll numbers. Clinton may be rising in the polls, racking up primary victories and, judging by the polls, would be a stronger challenger than Obama against John McCain. Nevertheless, Senator Obama is still gaining support among superdelegates, who likely will ultimately choose the nominee.
The Obama campaign has compiled a giant database of supporters that can be tapped by superdelegates who need help — and of course money –
Are there any indications that Barack Obama — who prides himself on being above political gamesmanship — would engage in such a strategy? (greasing SDs)
Yes. He has been doing so under the radar screen for years. The Center for Responsive Politics — a non-partisan group — has “opened a fascinating window into the world of superdelegates” in the words of this ABC News report (which notes that Hillary has also used this tactic, but that Obama — perhaps because he has more money to play with — has been sending a much larger amount of money to superdelegates).
Since 2005, Barack Obama has donated three times as much as Senator Clinton to Democratic superdelagates. The study found that the presidential candidate who gave more money to superdelegates received the endorsements 82 percent of the time. As noted in the Weekly Standard,(Bill Kristol’s PNAC pushing rag)
It is a sad statement about the Democratic Party that a few hundred superdelegates may, in essence, be casting their lot for Barack Obama in order to bolster their own campaigns.
Nevertheless, he has cast himself as a new type of politicians who eschews the old type of politics
Yet, Barack Obama earned his political spurs in Chicago (as did his campaign gurus). In the Windy City, backroom deals behind closed doors are how business is done — especially if the room has been swept for listening devices. In Chicago, “pay to play” is a political maxim and patronage is a synonym for politics. These are tools that work in the past and they seemingly will once again in the future.
Welcome to Chicago politics, writ large.”
Quid pro quo. The great American math. As Rose Mae Prizzi might have said to Charley Partanna:
“Hey, Charley….. he’s an American Super Delegate! He saw a chance to turn a buck……so he took it.
You know it makes sense. Think about it.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/05/barack_obamas_goldmine_1.html
David Brooks can’t help saying it: Clinton is a virago who will say and do anything because she only believes in fighting and Obama is the reasonable adult who exudes a calmness and thoughtfulness that would make America a different place.
Take ya pick:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/06/opinion/06brooks.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Just for reference here are the poll closing times for Indiana and North Carolina:
Indiana: 18-19:00 ET (08-09:00 AM East Coast Australia)
North Carolina: 19:30 ET (09:30 AM East Coast Australia)
Then we live through the count which should take us through the morning and probably well into the afternoon (our time).
“James Carville is well-known for spouting off his mouth without always knowing what he’s talking about. And I intend to stay focused on fighting for the American people because what they don’t need is 20 more years of performance art on television.”
– Sen. Barack Obama, in an interview on ABC News, on Carville’s recent remarks on Obama’s toughness.
(TG’s polwire)
Superdelegate update ….
The DCW have just added IL add-ons Barbara Flynn Currie and Todd Stroger for Obama. Relative to my last post as #557 this is +2 for Obama, 0 for Clinton.
And the numbers are:
Obama: 261 (254+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
This brings Clinton’s lead down to 7.5.
And the last bit of news before I disappear for the night ….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ4ig6EgpAk
But me personally – I like this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghSJsEVf0pU
Goodnight al!
*Grabs popcorn*
Votes have begun trickling in.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#IN
Thx Triton
At 2% counted: Clinton 61, Obama 39. Anyone know the demographics of these early results? Are they from strong Clinton districts?
So far, the results from IN are in predominantly rural districts.
We need to wait for the NW of the state (Chicago suburbs) and Indianapolis to provide figures before we can really tell who’s going to win (and by how much).
Interestingly, it looks like Hillary Clinton is going to win Clinton County, Indiana…
CNN Exit Polls are up:
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#INDEM
If they are correct, Clinton will win in IN, but narrowly (somewhere between 3-5%)
SW #701 Did you notice that Clinton County is next door to White County?
#702 Exit polls have tended to overestimate Obama’s support in recent contests, but I’d still expect him to keep her to a single digit win.
Morning all,
It’s a very ugly set of numbers for The Kid in Indiana at the moment. The gap is around 20 points to HRC at the moment, so I hope your exit polls are right SL.
On the other side, about a quarter of the GOP vote is NOT going to McCain. The same thing happened in PA. That must be a worry for them.
FG – the demographics of Indiana are weird. They told us before the primary that 25% of Indiana’s population are in the Chicago suburbs in the NW corner. Then there’s Indianapoli and Fort Wayne. The latter has some figures in and is going for Obama. He’s also won Howard County – I wonder if Maxine McKew’s ben lending a hand?
With 9% reporting, HRC has a lead of 16,321.
Demographics of this primary are odd – 60% of primary voters are 45 and older…
10% reporting in IN, HRC lead of 18,870. Going to be very hard to catch from here…
No one (even Fox) isn’t going to call this race until at least either Indianapolis reports figures or the counties in the NW (Chicago suburbs) report figures.
With Indiana 10% counted 58/42 is not a good result for Obama, does anyone know if the particular areas so far favour Hillary
Let me try that again:
No one (including Fox) is going to call this race until either Indianapolis or the counties in the NW report figures…
Lead maintained with 12% reporting. Apart from the Wright issue, I assume gas tax holiday has played well. Despite being canned by economists, this populist policy is sure to resonate, as Obama doesnt have an alternative as far as I can see
Two more counties which, from their proximity to Indianapolis would appear to have some of that city’s overflow have now reported and have gone to Obama.
Andrew,
From what I see, the counties reporting so far do favour HRC, in that they are mainly rural voters located in the southeast, with no reports from any counties from the north eastern Chicago sprawl, or Indianapolis. Fort Wayne (the second largest city in IN) is so far going for Obama while the rural areas are strongly going for Clinton. Boone and Putnam Counties (just outside Indianapolis) are both reporting for Obama, but still very early stages, with probably only pre-polls and very low turnout booths returning.
Interesting that the CNN exit polls didn’t show the same dominance among women for Clinton that has been seen throughout much of the primary season.
16% IN reporting, HRC lead of 23,902
First votes in from Marion county (Indy) – Obama up 55/45.
I don’t think that’s enough of a margin for him to win the state overall (although we don’t know which parts of Indianapolis are currently reporting).
Voices on the ground seem confident of Clinton by 5 in IN – it is interesting that the networks have not called this as early as they did the last races. I assume this is for the reason Robert notes.
And Clinton seems to be hinting at a respectable loss in NC.
Al – also interesting that the youth vote is at 16 – has been low teens in past few contests. Oldies numbers are lower too.
Was watching Seven ‘News’ this morning. They were reporting that Hillary had early lead in Indiana (this part is news) then went on to say Hillary needed to win one of the contest today to stay in the race. On what basis do that make this statement – That’s parts not news – it’s opinion.
Oh, and the college town of Evansville is also not reporting anything at the moment either. That would probably be expected to lean Obama’s way.
CNN projects Obama winner in NC
NC exit polls suggests Obama win by about 10% – not a good result for HRC.
18% IN reporting, HRC lead of 28,790
Fox News projects Obama winner in NC
Gawd, they’ve called NC for Obama without a vote being posted.
Meanwhile Indiana looks grim
20% IN reporting, HRC lead of 33,784…
Hi everyone. Yep, I was hoping for better from Indiana. Still, the Chicago suburbs are not yet reporting, but they won’t take 58-42 down to anywhere near 50-50. So it’s a win for Hillary, just hope we can get that margin down some more.
The pattern seems similar to PA – lots of rural support for Hillary, while Obama takes the main urban centres.
A 5 point Indiana win to Hillary, coupled with a 10 point loss in NC (if the exit polls are close) should spell the end of the line for her on any rational analysis. Therefore, I fully expect her to stay in, should this be the outcome.
CNN still not willing to call Indiana for Hillary – not sure why.
It’s potentially a good sign for Obama that Indiana hasn’t been called early.
Still lots of urban votes to come in.
I’d like to see some crossover voting numbers in IN. The exit polls on CNN show big numbers of Hillary supporters saying they will vote McCain. Some will be sulky Clintonites, but I’d wager a chunk are Limbaughers.
I think it’s probably hasty to declare Indiana as a win for HRC already. Philadelphia with double the population had about 450k voters turnout, and assuming that the turnout %age is roughly the same for Indianapolis, a win by 15 points and a lead of 30,000 is gone. If it swings all the way that Philly did (30 points to BHO), then that’s a net gain of approximately 60,000 votes, and it will come down to the southern burbs of Chicago.
If Hillary can keep Obama to within 10 points in Indy, I think that is when the networks will start to call it.
Results now coming in for NC.
JV – She’s going to do far better than a 5% win in IA on these figures. If she can keep Obama to single digits in NC then she will claim that the bottom has fallen out of his campaign and that SDs should therefore smell the roses and nominate her.
25% IN reporting, HRC lead of 39,558
Smile – the raw numbers between them mean sfa as an indicator of the the overall vote margin or the likely delegate split. Look to the proportions, if you want to count it down.
For example, currently 57-43 with 27% counted.
So far 66-32 Obama’s way in NC, but very early days.
JV, the raw numbers are relevant to the gap needing to be overcome taking into account the State’s population and expected turnout (the % reporting isn’t, based upon previous instances, the % of the vote counted but the % of precincts reporting…)
Personal politics aside… I can’t believe there are people out there seriously think this gas holiday is a good idea. Economically it is pure stupidity. Both candidates should be ashamed of themselves.
/personal rant
So Obama to win NC, Clinton to win Indiana. The delegate math will remain more or less unchanged. The race will now go on until June. Who didn’t see that coming?
Ferny wins the pessimist award for the morning so far lol.
Relax, your man is the winner.
It appears that Indy is going to BHO by 20 points at the moment. Looks like they’re waiting on the burbs of Chicago as well as the sprawl counties around Indy of Hamilton and Hendricks to call it. Hillary did fairly well in the sprawl counties around Philly which helped her in PA a few weeks ago. I dare say she hopes to do the same here.
FG – She’ll be like a rabid ferret at the SD’s if she gets an IN 10 point win and a 5 point loss in NC. But IN is a bit early to call as a 10 point win for her yet.
Smile – I can’t see that – you’d have to know how the counties were going to vote in advance, and it is very uneven. Anyway, if it gets you through the count …
And given the media called NC for Obama about 20 minutes after polls opened, you can safely assume he will have a decent margin there as well. It’s looking increasingly like a double digit whooping. Still early days though.
The way CNN are talking NC is gonna be a drubbing
NC is showing 64-34 with 4% counted.
(figures don’t add to 100 due to “no preference” option)
HA, HarryH: Who was it that said:
“Never overestimate the intelligence of the American voter.”
But it’s now 56-44 to Hillary in IN – it’s the NARROWING!
Meanwhile in NC – Holy Crap – The Kid is going medieval!
Indianapolis showing 61-39 Obama’s way
If it’s as bad as that Noocat, it may hurt her in the final delegate count if in some Congressional Districts she doesn’t reach the 15% for viability.
Obama has a 50,000 vote lead in NC – 4% reporting.
Hang on… 4%? From 160,000 votes counted? That can’t be accurate.
Obama has yet to lose a state adjoining Illinois. Bugger
The weird thing in NC is that the order that the results are coming is the opposite to what we’ve been expecting.
Normally, it’s the rural (usually pro-Clinton) areas that come in first, before the urban areas start reporting. In NC, however, the urban areas (Charlotte, Raleigh, Greensboro) have reported first and most of the rural areas haven’t. Hence, Obama’s current 30% lead in the count…
NC probably includes the massive pre-poll vote at the moment, which was 41% black vote and a heap of students. Expect Obama’s margin to come down a little. Still a big narrative victory given Clinton’s attempts to spin that she ever had a chance there. And another swag of NC SDs to Obama on the way…
The CNN panel virtually just said it’s time the Democrat Party puts Old Yella(The Clampetts) down.
It’s over. He’s won.
The fact that the networks have already called NC for Obi is fantastic news. A call this early has meant a 10% plus win on past form.
Go you good thing!
Mornin’ All,
Smile, check this:
From NYT live blog:” 7:47 p.m. | Hoosiers Weighing In: With 21 percent of Indiana reporting, Mrs. Clinton is leading with 57 percent to 43 percent. But the big urban centers, including Indianapolis and Gary, have yet to report, so this early read is meaningless.”
Yeah, Harry, NC result might even out Edwards, let alone the other SDs.
Sweet, Sweet Caroline
Check out the IN scorecard on here: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/, as well as some analysis. Obama running ahead of polling breakdowns which were predicting Clinton by 5. IN will tighten.
I’m not sure it’s that clear cut yet in HC. I’d wait for some more of the western counties to come in before I got to excited.
He’ll win but I’m not sure it’s going to be as big as it’s currently showing.
Sorry NC not HC (freudian slip)
She’s getting into your head dogb…but I don’t reckon you’re alone there.
Why won’t she just go away.
42% reporting in IN – are any of the cities reporting yet?
EC, I’m not saying that the IN vote isn’t going to get a lot closer.
CBS calls Indiana for Clinton, but she’s outta gas again. No wonder she want’s a holiday:
“I asked Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just now whether Clinton had given or loaned her campaign more money in the run-up to North Carolina and Indiana.
“Might be. Might not be,” McAuliffe said, adding that the campaign would release more fundraising details tomorrow.
In the past, Clinton aides have denied a second Clinton loan, but McAuliffe said tonight his policy is not to talk about fundraising details.”
I asked Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe just now whether Clinton had given or loaned her campaign more money in the run-up to North Carolina and Indiana.”
Clinton’s currently winning in Evansville. That’s a good sign for her in IN.
I think the main reason why IN hasn’t been called is that none of the NW counties have reported any results…
>42% reporting in IN – are any of the cities reporting yet?
34% of Marion (which is Indianapolis) is in, Obama 62-38
92% of Allen (which is Fort Wayne) in in, Obama 55-45
Obama maintaining a 30% lead in NC after 11% reporting.
Max @ 750 [Hang on… 4%? From 160,000 votes counted? That can’t be accurate.]
Max – I think the percentage might be of the precincts counted, which means nothing in terms of the percentage of votes counted, because of the variations in size.
EC
i’m not sure about Edwards but Gore made noises this morning.
looks like Al is about to way in…and no-one thinks it will be good news for *The Clampetts.
*TM Jen
Thanks Smile – they’re not helping with the narrowing! I guess the NW/Chicago sprawl may help.
The problem for Clinton in NC is that she’s losing rural counties (in the east) to Obama. Considering she’s won these counties in most states, this is a really bad sign for her in NC…
Edwards and his wife have said they WILL NOT be endorsing either candidate.
If he can get to within 5% of her in IN while winning by 15-20% in NC, we may well see a renewed Obama MO. It will certainly change the psychology of the race.
So what will the MSN narrative be now?
Dissapointed. Transylvania just reported 51% to HC.
I figured if anyone was going to stick a stake through her heart…
Edwards needs to grow some
Smile,
The two biggest counties in Indiana are Marion and Lake. A turnout of only 60,000 in Marion would be horribly disappointing for the Democratic Party. I’d expect there would have to be at least another 100,000 votes to report in that county alone. Lake County up in the North West will decide the margin I’d wager.
And as I type this up, I notice that Elkhart just came in by 18 points to BHO. Strong signs in the North for Lake County. Remember Missouri?
But dogb – Evil is their main industry in Transylvania. Of course they’d pick Hillary. It’s close though.
Indiana now down to 55-45, still nothing from the NW Chicago counties though.
774 FG – “If he can get to within 5% of her in IN….”
Waiting for St Joseph to report. That might swing it back Obi’s way a little.
10% lead in IN with 49% reporting, down from earlier lead of 16% for Hillary. A double digit win for Hillary is still ambiguous in terms of the race, hopefully the lead narrows a bit
31% lead to Obama in NC after 13% counted.
All pessimism evaporating.
Indianapolis now 63 – 37 Obama’s way – that’s where a fair bit of the shift back towards Obama in Indiana is coming from.
Huge numbers of voters in Indianapolis.
54-46 now in IN after 51% reported – the gap is closing! Exciting stuff.
Despite the north carolina drubbing, a victory in indiana means hillary wont budge. hopefully the supers will
More than 600,000 votes counted in Indiana and nobody is willing to call it yet.
I note Huckabee and Paul are still getting about 20% of the vote against Macca. That can’t be a good sign for the Repugs.
Maybe Zogby was CONSERVATIVE re NC!
Andrew, I don’t think anyone expects Hillary to budge. I do expect the narrative to change, and it becomes very hard to sell an ‘electability’ story when you’ve just been thumped by 20 points in NC.
Has CNN called it for Clinton on TV yet?
FG – Thought they might get their groove back here.
The demographics of the two states are quite different. The rural parts of NC near the coast are the old plantation areas and have big black populations. The rural areas in the extreme west are Appalachian and have bugger all blacks. The cities in NC will go for Obama on a combination of educated whites and blacks. His massive majorities in some counties in NC probably reflect the big concentrations of rural blacks.
In Indiana, by contast, there are no rural blacks – so it’s a straight city country divide. The reason no-one’s calling it for Clinton yet is because until the Chicago suburbs report it’s a bit like calling a Victorian election without the
Melbourne results. The fact that it’s down to single digits on the strenght of Indianapolis and Fort Wayne alone indicates that she won’t win it by very much. I expect NC to tighten a bit as well as the Hillbilly vote trickles in. Speaking of which, Hillary is ahead in Transylvania County; why am I not surprised?
Re Indiana – If those other North-West counties are similar to Elkhart then Obama has more coming his way up there; also only 54% of Marion (Indianapolis) precincts reporting, and 5% of Hamilton county next to it, which is showing a same BHO margin (63-37). This doesn’t appear to be over yet in Indiana.
JV – they’re glorified Chicago suburbs. Of course he’ll win them. I’ve just had an idea for a play: “Waiting for Gary”.
St Joseph (South Bend) is a university town. I’m expecting it to go Obi’s way big time.
RB – While the process has been torturous, I reckon Gary might show up. This could get to within 3 looking at present numbers.
I bet Dean is roaring! This looks great.
fivethirtyeight is projecting a HRC win in Indiana by 3.6%.
That’s far too close for comfort for her (considering people thought it a possibility that she could win in IN by double digits).
Could this be the end for HRC (and my money on her at Sportingbet)???
One great thing about a small win for Hillary in Indiana and a huge win for Obama is that we can finally put to bed all that convoluted drivel about Billary winning the popular vote.
N Carolina – different stroy -if you scan over those NWest counties there are some big %’s for HRC with not many precincts in – I’d expect a big narrowing in NC from here – hopefully not below 10 points though.
3.6 sounds a little pessimistic to me – but I think you’ve done your dough anyway SL.
St Joseph pretty close, 53-47.
I was hoping it would go bigger than that.
Overall now the same. Getting closer.
JV#799 The narrowing will be lessened by the small numbers – there ain’t legions of Hillbillies in them thar hills, they’re RURAL.
Sorry, in reverse of course.
Porter County in NW Indiana coming in – HRC up 58/42. Seems a little counterintuitive…
Narrowing everywhere.
IN down to 53-47 after 65% counted
NC down to 62-36 after 21%
“Harold Ford says Clinton should drop out.” from DKos
Swing low chariot come down easy
Taxi to the terminal zone
Cut your engines and cool your wings
And let me make it to the telephone.
Tally room, give me Gary, Indiana
Are the voters still standin’ in line?
Tell the folks back home this is the promised land
Callin’ and the po boy is on the line.
(chuck berry)
There is a distinctly different tone amongst the panels on CNN tonight than the last month or so.
This thing is coming to a close. Things could happen very rapidly in the next week.
If Gore speaks in the next day or two it will be wrapped up soon. Tonights results are the circuit breaker that was needed to give this race to the winner (Obama) and start applying the blowtorch to their 72yo opponent.
RB – Obama has a 16 point buffer before he drops below 10 in NC anyway, so he can throw Hillary a few minnow states just to make her feel better.
For a second there I read that as Harrison Ford and got really excited.
Actually, NC could get worse for Clinton – Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has 0% reporting, but is currently going to Obama 73/27…
That can’t be right, how big is Charlotte?
Wiki says over 600,00. So it probably is right.
The Indianapolis Star site has the race at 53.2 – 46.8 now
I wonder on why basis CBS has called Indiana, but no other network has. Maybe the CBS exit polls were different to those collated by other networks…
Look at that Indiana county map on CNN – I can see Hillary’s next ploy – she is more electable because she won more counties, and the delegates should be divided up on the proportion of counties won.
Unexpected result of the night:
Huckabee wins Caldwell County, NC with 66% of the vote (37% of precincts reporting)
Oh boy – St Josephs coming in ahead of Obama predictions. IN is in play!
What odds a dead heat in IN?
#821 What was his prediction?
Counting seems to have slowed.
Damn – Huckabee doesn’t win in Caldwell County, NC. Seems like CNN had their figures around the wrong way…
Obama addresses crowd to the tune of Springsteens “The Rising”
“Update: Per the exit polls, the undecided vote split in North Carolina, 49C-48O, while Clinton won it 3-2 in Indiana.
Update: Woah — MSNBC just changed Indiana from “Too Early To Call” to “Too Close To Call”.” DKos
One question re this electability issue.
Based on the polling, Clinton is ahead of McCain on the delegate count.
Based on the polling, Obama and McCain are pretty much level pegging.
If we ignore Florida and Ohio, the states in which Obama threatens McCain are South Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana and Nebraska.
Again ignoring Florida and Ohio, the states in which Clinton threatens McCain are New Mexico, Kentucky and Indiana.
There is about a five delegate difference there, enough to win Obama the presidency but given Clinton has to lose states that she already is ahead in in order to not win the presidency, I cannot see how Obama is more electable than Clinton.
I know people were talking about Texas previously. However, that was based on polling from February. The most recent polls put McCain ahead of Obama by five per cent in Texas.
Further, on states in which McCain is close to Obama, we have Colorado, Wisconsin, Michigan and Penn – 57 delegates worth.
On states in which McCain is close to Obama, we have Washington, Oregon, Iowa, Missouri and Conneticut – 47 delegates worth.
So, can someone lay the argument down as to how McCain is vulnerable to Obama in a way that he is not vulnerable to Clinton? Which states are people talking about?
As far as I can see, this presidential election will be decided in Florida and Ohio. If Obama does not win one of those, he will not win the election. And he could lose both. On current polling, Clinton will win both of those easily.
Oh, and congratulations to Obama for winning North Carolina, and to Clinton for winning Indiana. This pretty much sets the seal on things, I think.
Obama’s speech sounds and looks like he knows he has the nomination all sown up
“Oh, and congratulations to Obama for winning North Carolina, and to Clinton for winning Indiana. This pretty much sets the seal on things, I think.”
You and CBS are pretty brave David! Have a look at the barely GOP states on electoral-vote.com. McCain is speading his resources pretty thin against Obama. See the recent House result in MI for why. Further, Clinton can’t beat Obama in an election. Ergo, she is not more electable.
The problem for HRC is that her margin of victory in IN (if she wins) is going to be so small and Obama’s margin of victory in NC is going to be so large that she’s going to lose any momentum she had picked up in the last couple of weeks.
It is unlikely now that she would win Oregon (the next key state) and I would expect the flow of SDs to keep moving away from her now.
That said, she may make Oregon her “do or die” state if she wins IN. After all, she is expected to record big victories in the next couple of primaries (WV and KY).
David I think it’s best just to say that any three way polling is suspect at best and the true picture won’t appear until we have a nominee.
The Kid has picked up a cool 100 Large in the popular vote so far in both states.
Obama was 50,000 behind at 68%, now 47,000 behind at 70%. How likely is Hendricks (still 0% reporting) to go the way of Marion next door? If it does there’s 40,000 more for Obama right there.
71% IN reporting, HRC by 41,468 – this could get close!!!
% Margin will come down in NC, but it will be a cool 200K votes. Enough to put an end to the children trying to change thr rules vis-a-vis popular vote.
Indiana now down to 52-48
Smile – is a virtual tie in IN (given crossover voting) sealing the deal?
Hendricks county in (12%) – HRC up 57/43
I’d say (by my own personal standards) if Obama holds Clinton to a 5% or less win in IN then she will be gone very shortly.
Obama’s lead in NC down to 18% (58-40) with 43% reporting
Hillary’s lead in In now at 4% (52-48) with 72% reporting
Obama:”We will end [the gridlock] by telling The Truth”
heh.. up yours Hillary..
ouch.
73% IN reporting, HRC out to lead of 43,075
Down to a 16% lead in NC and falling. Any more large centres to come in?
Lake and Hendricks Counties could effectively decide the nomination today. Obama’s numbers in Indy are a lot bigger than I first expected. He could take another 10k into that lead from Marion, 5k from Hendricks and Hamilton, meaning he’d need another 25k from Lake. If the turnout %age is similar for Lake as in St Joesph, then he would need a 20 point win in Lake. If Hillary keeps him to 10 points in Lake or less she should be safe.
POssum – with a hat tip to Colbert?
FG @ 843,
Mecklensburg county (Charlotte) is only at 17% and Obama is leading 70/30…
Al @ 844,
Slight problem – Hendricks County is currently going for HRC by 14%.
I think the key counties left in IN are Hamilton (only 35% reporting), Lake (0%) and to a lesser extent, Laporte (0%).
What a ride!
846
Plus, a number of eastern counties still yet to report. So far, nearly all of nearly all of those that have reported have gone Obama’s way by a large margin.
Pancho,
What is in play in an Obama v Clinton race is very different than an Obama v McCain or a Clinton v McCain race. The candidates are – obviously – different. The voters involved are different.
I will check out electoral-vote.com.
dogb
It could well be that three-way polling is suspect. However, that is all the data that we have to go on. As such, if we are talking about electability and we wish to use data to back up our arguments, that is where we go. As such, I would like to see what it is that the Obama supporters who are arguing that he is more electable than her are using to back up their arguments.
That should clinch it for her. A small victory but a clear one.
Hillary’s lead in IN now down to 38,000.
74% IN reporting, HRC lead down to 37,708…
David, we also have a Primary system that the Dems have developed over decades to give them a nominee.
And a good point was made the other day. Clinton’s numbers at present are coming from white women (not the working class, contrary to media representation). These people are to the Dems what evangelicals are to the Reps. There is no way the will vote for the war-cadaver over Obama.
From Wiki, interesting demographic African-American split between Porter and Lake Counties: Porter County has an African-American population of 0.92%, Lake County 25.33%. Marion County (Indy) has an African-American population of 24%.
SL:
Look at the raw numbers in Hendricks, only 2800 votes counted out of a county with a population of 100,000. Those numbers are not too useful, and probably from the rural precincts located away from the sprawl.
Um, electoral-vote is actually where I am getting my data from. Based on that data, Clinton is simply more electable than Obama in a general election.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May06.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May06.html
David I suspect those Obama supporters who claim he is more electable than HC are doing so because he’s pretty much just beat her….in an election.
Margin in NC down to 14% – still, there’s a lot of eastern counties left to report (plus Charlotte)
Pancho,
I very much disagree with you about the working class. The same polling that is showing us white women is also showing us working class. Or do you have a source that demonstrates otherwise?
David – Check ‘barely GOP’ numbers on each map. These are states in play as soon as the 3-way polling goes. Obama’s looking fine.
dogb,
I have already addressed that point. Obama beating Clinton in a Democratic primary race is a very different thing than Obama beating McCain in a presidential race. It is apples and oranges.
9:12 p.m. | Obama Smiles: Mr. Obama is speaking. He looks happy, for the first time in a long time. “Thank you, North Carolina. I love you too.”
A bank of white people, most of them middle-aged women, who have generally been in Mrs. Clinton’s corner, are lined up behind Mr. Obama in the tight TV shot (not an Abercrombie T-shirt among them).
He congratulates Mrs. Clinton on “what appears to be her victory” in Indiana. (He must know something that the results aren’t showing us at this point, unless he’s lowering expectations for himself.)
In North Carolina, Mr. Obama claims victory in a big state, a swing state, a state where, he says, the Democrats will compete if he is the nominee. He seems to be tasting victory. He notes that he is less than 200 delegates away from winning the nomination and gives Mrs. Clinton something of a valedictory.
Yes there have been bruised feelings
Hendricks county is only 1.1% African-American. It’s mainly white and suburban. it probably votes GOP in general elections (although I can’t confirm that). Overall, it doesn’t surprise me much that HRC is leading there currently…
Yes there have been bruised feelings on both sides, he says, but promises party unity in the fall.
Pancho,
I listed the ‘barely GOP’ states for Obama in my other post. There is a five-delegate advantage to Obama over Clinton there if we ignore Ohio and Florida.
If we include Ohio and Flordia, Clinton already has them in the bag. Obama would have to fight for them.
David,
Sure but unless you accept the three cornered polling as accurate (and I don’t) what other standard do we have to measure them against each other.
4% and narrowing. I wish I could stay to watch. But I must be off to introduce a bunch of undergraduate would-be PE teachers to the Spanish Civil War. Wish me luck! Non Pasaran!
It looked like an acceptance speech to me. Very good one, too.
Obama’s lead down to 14%. Bugger
dogb,
I would suggest that if you do not accept the three-cornered polling as accurate then you cannot make a case either way, as you suggested.
Well David, I guess it’s all academic, cos the Democratic Party and voters don;t seem to agree with this well worn line of argument. And I guess we’ll only ultimately know in November if you’re right when Obama does face up against McCain.
76% IN reporting, HRC lead down to 35,378…
lol Ferny
10% will be just fine
relax
869
Ferny Grover Says: Obama’s lead down to 14%. Bugger
I suspect if you’d offered him NC by 14% and a 4% loss in IN yesterday he would have taken it FG.