The Australian reports tomorrow’s Newspoll will have Labor’s two-party lead at a relatively modest 57-43. However, Liberal hopes of positive headlines have been dashed by a preferred prime minister rating showing Brendan Nelson back in single figures at 9 per cent, compared with 72 per cent for Kevin Rudd.
UPDATE: Graphic here.
169 Comments
Labor would be happy with these figures, but Brendan must be really worried. Single digit as preferred PM is not a good look.
Plus the Collatorial damage to the Liberal Brand caused by the WA Branch and Buswell.
(PS. William, would it be possible when you close off a link to hyperlink the text to the new thread ?)
Nelson is gone. Turnbull is just hoping that the budget is well received so that it ends Nelson’s leadership.
I still puzzled why anyone would want the poisoned chalice at this stage?
Can’t they give it to ’safe pair of hands’ Beazely. I mean, Costello?
who cares. this is like worrying about Beazley’s figures in june 1996. The next election will be a ruddslide and the government will hang on for about another decade. give me a call in ten years.
Nath – who you tipping for 2020 ‘lection?
peter j nicol, well, looking at the electoral history you would expect that the libs will get back in after ’bout a decade.
My 2020 tip: Bill Shorten for Liberal PM. Lindsay Tanner to be treasurer.
surely by 2020 sophie panopolous will have exterminated all opposition in the liberal party.
Still awful figures for the LNP but the better result I think because of less negativity and trivial criticising from them. Or is it people paying less attention to politicians and starting to fall back to their usual football side.
Sophie might have gotten rid of all traditional support and Deliver Us From Evil ™, but I reckon once she has Dean Mighell might try to take control of the party through sheer numbers, with 104 Exhibition becoming the new HQ for the ETU.
I am sooooooooo impatient to see the next WA poll
The latest Shamaham Turd polishing effort.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23652050-601,00.html
Image link
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6may.jpg
Note that the Dennis Shanahan article in the Australian was headlined “Coalition gains support.”
I wonder how it works … do they sit round a table at The Australian and ask for volunteers to write outright lies?
Change only a few words and you get this:
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, the ALP primary vote leads the Coalition by 47 percent to 37 per cent.
Based on preference flows at the last election, the two-party-preferred vote still has Labor with a huge 14-point lead of 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
The personal support for Opposition Leader Dr Nelson has worsened with a fall back to single digits as preferred prime minister and a decline in satisfaction. This is the Coalition’s best party result since Dr Nelson became Opposition Leader.
The only Opposition leader in Australia with a lower personal rating is embattled West Australian Liberal leader Troy Buswell, who survived an attempt to remove him as leader yesterday.
A four point turn around would normally be seen as a massive swing. There are two possible candidates for why it has occurred: 1) Tough budget talk, 2) The public were not quite as happy with the 2020 summit as the average PBer.
I would say mostly the former but with a little of the latter.
I think the 4 point turn around might have more to do with 51 being too high rather than a shift in public opinion in the last 2 weeks. The two before that were 47 and 48 so another 47 is certainly within the ballpark for a flat value between 47 and 50.
It’s still a poll, and there are still margins of error. The Australian is whistling in the wind.
What I find interesting is the number of people now talking about the destruction of he Liberal brand. Nath asks to be woken up in 10 years. For the next change of government I think he is going to have to what a little longer than what we currently consider the normal election cycle. Remember we had to wait 20 years for the labor party to recover from the efforts of the extreme left. The labor party was a strong organization with a solid funding base. I doubt the same can be said of the Liberal party.
If the current small minded crop succeed in destroying the brand, exactly what is the Liberal parties value.
I think the next twenty years are going to be interesting because we are going to see new political structures emerge.
Poor Nelson cant get a trick. A 4 % TPP improvement is overshadowed by a 1% MOE movement into single figures! WS at 15, why is reporting an improvement in 2PP a lie??
We need to be consistent here. Just as we got annoyed when the Oz focussed on Rudd’s PPM instead of the 2PP when it suited them, it is equally annoying that the media in general is focussing on a single point PPM dip when the headline stat is really the 4% 2PP change which is outside the MOE
Andrew, I think you make some good points but really, how relevant is this poll to anything? The next Federal election is still 2 1/2 years away.
fulll support of chair sniffing buswell is not helping nelson,s standing in the community
Looks to me as if the much touted budget bounce from last year has finally turned up for the Coalition. LOL
HUGE Dennis.
#22
The polls now might not be directly relevant to the next election, but they have a big effect on the parties and their actions (e.g., leadership rumblings and changes, policies), so indirectly they are very relevant to what happens in 2 1/2 years.
26 Triton – Collectively, over a long period of time, these polls can have an effect on parties and certainly in an election year they have an effect but these early polls individually have minimal effect. We can over analyse them IMHO.
Of course, it’s just as likely to be a rogue poll. Remember late last year we all counselled against single polls.
It’s unlikely that hundreds of thousands of people have simply changed to the Libs in a week or two, isn’t it? What would possibly have caused that to happen?
#27 GB – Well, talk that Nelson’s future as leader is severely limited has been going almost since he took over, and it’s been the polls that have kept it bubbling along. Many people don’t think he’ll last much beyond the budget, which would make his stint a truly dreadful one (it’s dreadful enough that the possibility alone does not seem ridiculous). If the 2PP were around 55-45 and his PPM were a still pitiful 20 rather than single digits he wouldn’t be under such pressure.
Meanwhile in WA…
http://tinyurl.com/6mypec
and re Karokegate.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=145&ContentID=71490
Dennisisms:
“Coalition gains support” = We are now going to only get decimated, not annihilated!
“Labor vote steady” = Only 10 points ahead now!!
“Rudd support relatively unchanged, Nelson steady” = Damn, Rudds up another 2 points on Nelson!
“Rudd honeymoon” = A magical 16 month Rudd honeymoon, with a 6 month Brendan Nelson divorce
“Nelson has bottomed out” = Christ surely things can’t get worse?! Can they???!
“Election surge” = everyone will vote for the party i want to win on election day despite the polls showing they will lose dismally
29 Triton – I agree but it’s the collective poll results that have Nelson in trouble, not just one poll. I repeat we can make too much of one single poll.
The man (if you could call him one) is a complete twat.
http://news.smh.com.au/there-is-no-inflation-crisis-nelson/20080506-2bc5.html
and Allbull is singing the same song.
New name for a combined coservative party could be HISBIA “heads in sand bums in air” or else just call them the Ostrich Party.
Vera 34
You got that right!
Nelson was exactly the same when a minister in Howard’s Gov. Remember the denials and stories he told regarding Iraq and all the time saying how wonderful Howard was, so he could keep in good with the boss.
If he admits that there is an inflation crisis then logically the blame goes back to those “wonderful” economic managers Howard and Costello. He won’t have that. He is like his old boss, he can tell these stories without turning a hair.
The Libs are very much still in denial.
Actually a good poll for Labor. The Libs will be wondering are they improving or not, do we keep Brendan longer or not…oh wot to do!
I think I heard Nelson say that Treasury advised a 1% of GDP surplus and that is what Costello produced. (In relation to the CH9 FOI documents).
Yet Turnbull said that last years budget was a 1.6% of GDP surplus. Who is correct?
The half of the Queensland Nationals who bothered to vote for the Pineapple Party
have made sure it has large minority support with a 97.3% tick of approval. We now wait with bated breath to learn when the Federal Liberals will vote the proposal down followed by how many Queensland Liberals will then strike out on the swim towards the sinking ship.
http://www.qld.nationals.org.au/news/default.asp?action=article&ID=2763
Radio reports throughout the day were claiming a 50% voter turnout and this Courier Mail report:
“Mr McIver said just over half of the party’s total membership of almost 10,000 people responded to the ballot.”
and:
“Queensland Nationals president Bruce McIver said today 90 per cent of members who voted in a ballot were in favour of a new single, united non-Labor party.”
It seems to be a bit like a fishing tale where the numbers grow as they get closer to the National Party official website.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23653562-3102,00.html
I can understand the LNP living with Brendan “I need no blanket; my love for my country keeps me warm” Nelson as a seat warmer and living with the bad polling results….
…but he needs to be knocking the shine off Kevin Rein while we suffer the bad results and it just ain’t happening
Steve @ 39, that’s a very funny article, particularly the bit about Springborg having always said and believed they were reflective of the Queensland people. Wot, they haven’t noticed the past few elections? Springborg, as a 6 month old, with thought bubble above feeding face saying “This is so good, everyone must want it”?
Vera, am very impressed with Horatio and the man who would be king’s spin on inflation. All Swan has had to do was point out that probably just about anyone who counts, in terms of economic opinion, disagrees with them. Leaves them looking like drongos.
Mr. Squiggle, as long as the LNP, particularly the leadership, can’t figure out or agree on an honest appraisal of inflation and the LNP’s role in it’s genesis – again – I suspect that taking shine off Rudd will be a pipe dream.
41 HSO, just check out the former Lib and now National Party Life member who is financing the push by Springboard.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/billionaire-to-fund-new-conservative-party/2008/05/05/1209839551128.html
“We’ll keep an eye on the Votegap measures over the next year and see if that longer term trend to the ALP continues – however slowly. If it does, Australian federal politics will change fundamentally.”
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/state-of-the-polls-%e2%80%93-old-school/#comments
Well its probably just statistical noise.
Jolly good fun though….
Then there was this amusing sequence in the Queensland Parliament Hansard from 30th of April, Wednesday last week. Page 1315:
Those are alliances.
However, in recent times there has not been an alliance between the Liberal and National parties
but a takeover by Clive Palmer. By way of interjection we heard that Clive Palmer had been a member of
the National Party for 30 years. However, the National Party forgot to tell us what he had been before
then.
Ms Jones: What was he?
Mr MICKEL: In 1975 he was a member of the Liberal Party, but in that year he decided that he
wanted a cowboy outfit for Christmas so he bought the National Party. Why was he drummed out of the
Liberal Party? It was for alleged electoral irregularities in the movement’s 1975 presidential election.
The businessman who has bought the National Party was drummed out of the Liberal Party because he
was a vote rorter.
Opposition members interjected.
Mr SPEAKER: Order! While I really do not want to throw anyone out of the chamber this morning,
some members are acting as if they very much want to be. I call the minister.
Mr MICKEL: Not only was he a vote rorter; he could not tell the truth because what he said to the
papers was, ‘How could they expel me when I had already resigned?’ What did the minutes show? The
minutes showed acceptance of his resignation as grants development chairman but not acceptance of
his resignation from the Liberal Party. How do we know that? The Liberal Party minutes of 29 August
1975 show exactly that.
The other thing is that he says he was drummed out. They were concerned about the validity of
Sunshine Coast delegates to council. Why? Because the Sunshine Coast branch had been closed. In
other words, he put delegates in there from a closed branch. It gets better. Those from the Sunshine
Coast branch were falsely made out as to addresses and were invalid because no money was received.
In other words, what we have got is a perpetual vote rorter now running the National Party.
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/hansard/documents/2008.pdf/2008_04_30_DAILY.pdf
Snapper at 43,
Oh I agree, the LNP need to stand up and say we are accountable for the current level of inflation.
the background is Full employment, GDP above well above long term growth levels, budget in surplus, money to burn on services and infrastructure, no recession for 16 years
and all we have to suffer in order to enjoy these economic achievements is inflation at 4% when the RBA band is 2-3%?
pulease!!!!!
I can feel a new coalition coming on – the Clive Palmer Pineapple Party and Pauline’s United Australia Party
Bound to sweep the country with a veritable tsunami of support? Why Kev07 likely won’t even last until Christmas ‘08 as the voters desert on mass! LOL!
Mr Squiggle at 48 ‘money to burn on services and infrastructure’ – apart from the Alice Springs-Darwin rail line – what infrastructure did the coalition invest in ins the past 11 years?
To me it all seemed to be p1ssed up aginst the wall in baby-bonuses and other middle-class welfare…..
Nelson on inflation – apparently he doesn’t like the word ‘crisis’:
http://news.theage.com.au/there-is-no-inflation-crisis-nelson/20080506-2bc5.html
(Vera posted previously)
What’s Nelson’s and Allbull’s answer to the trend line shown here:
http://www.rba.gov.au/MonetaryPolicy/_Images/inflation_over_the_long_run_290408.gif
Good old Pete did nothing and got away with it, so why can’t they?
They can get away with this stupidity because the general public (and obviously they themselves) don’t have an F-ing clue what inflation actually is.
Apparently Nelson actually said that the government is actively trying to increase unemployment…
“motive, your honour, motive, we have a motive!!!”
Can anyone think of an even semi-credible reason for why anyone, anywhere, anytime would actively seek to increase unemployment?
Ruawake 37
I can only presume that, if the figures quoted by Nelson are correct, the difference relates to revisions to budget estimates by Treasury since the credit crunch has hit (inflation can’t have caused any slowdown because Nelson says we have no inflation problem
. So they might have projected a 1.6% budget surplus in the 2007 budget but since then reductions in forecast capital gains tax etc have reduced Treasury tax income, and might have reduced the forecast surplus to 1% now.
Its quite funny really – Nelson is quoting precisely some of the statistics that give the lie to his claim that the Liberals have left the economy in good shape. If things are so great, how come their own former budget estimate for the surplus aren’t being realised, even though Labor hasn’t brought down a budget yet??
As for the 57/43 result, I’d lvoe to see a state-by-state breakdown. I could well imagine Labor has lost ground in NSW after teh state conference embarrasement. Conversely, like others here I’d love to see the WA results.
I do have one other suggestion on why Labor support may have peaked – I have to say that, while I liked the idea of the summit and what it produced, I was dissappointed in the lack of action on climate change. Some Labor ministers (eg Ferguson) are saying some quite silly things to placate those in the coal industry. We don’t have a realistic policy on dealing with peak oil yet either.
48 Mr Squiggle – Higher interest rates due to higher inflation due to Liberal policies. Thanks for that.
“A key business group has turned its back on the federal coalition by supporting the Rudd government’s tough line on spending to help rein in inflation.”
http://www.thewest.com.au/aapstory.aspx?StoryName=480376
from the same article
“ACCI says it also supports means testing of welfare, after the government hinted it may limit payments to high-income earners of benefits such as the baby bonus.
“In principle, we support the concept of means testing,” Mr Evans said.
But deputy opposition leader Julie Bishop said doing so in the case of the baby bonus would be “ridiculous” and could create an administrative nightmare.”
How to lose friends and and have NO influence on people. That’s the Libs ex-Rodent.
54 Vera – agreed
It never ceases to amaze me how I seem to have a groundhog day recurrence of people pointing out to me with amazement that business group “insert name” fundamentally disagrees with various Liberal Party policies.
This has been going on for quite some time.
The ultimate fallacy in this regard is that Costello would be swamped with offers from the banking and business sector. Again, for quite some time this has been known to be quite ridiculous, even in sleepy conservative Canberra.
I would suggest to Julie Bishop that the real ridiculousness of the bonus is that people earning over $150,000 get the bonus at all. Is 4-5K really an incentive for people earning that much to have a child? If it is, then I’d suggest that there’s a fair bit of evidence that they’re not likely to be the sort of parents this country needs.
Squiggle actually raised an interesting point about inflation.
Ie why is 4.2% inflation considered bad.
It goes back to the 3% target figure set by Keating and faithfully adopted by Howard and Costello. Any rise above this figure means pain via interest rates.
And it is the pain that Squiggle misses, the interest rate rises, 14 in a row now?, means the government, ie Howard lost control as most happened during his time, but these increases do hurt.
But the target is 3%, supposedly a sensible target, and it has to be set at some level otherwise it becomes a moving target which could see it get totally out of control. Ie 4.2% is OK, then 5, 6 7%, where does it stop.
For Turnbull and Nelson to deride efforts to bring Australia back to this target is economic foolishness and irresponsibility, they come across as dopes to the business world without a clue.
But, I don’t think any target should remain fixed forever and the 3% should remain fixed in stone?
I would have thought that the 3% target was set in relation to increases in productivity, i e inflation is not a problem as long as the economy is increasing in productivity by roughly the same amount.
57 Exactly, BF but for most of the Howard era productivity gains were zero.
Most of the gains were speculation based not productivity based.
Breathless news in the Australian, under the previous government treasury wrote a document questioning Labors IR changes. Read all about it in the Australian if your interested.
With regards steve@39’s post – To be fair to the Qld Nats (though God only knows why I’m bothering), he might’ve said 50% and then 90%, but it was 50% of members voted, and then 90% _of those who voted_ were in support.
So about 50% voted in the ballot, and 90% of that 50% were in favour.
So yeah, can be slightly misleading, but still, they can only report the results they’ve got. Much like actual elections – Australia may have compulsory voting, but still, not everyone votes. The various electoral commissions can only report on the results of those votes actually cast.
@ Charles 60:
I just read those articles, both from Shanahan and both a complete beat up. It isn’t a treasury analysis of actual labor policy, it is treasury analysis of a labor press conference. The advice came out before Forward with Fairness was released and clearly shows the kind of lengths that he is willing to go to to stretch the truth for a headline.
Hey where is the coverage on the USA democratic primaries
When did Rudd release the nuts and bolts of Labor’s IR policies last year? Was it before or after this so called treasury advice?
After.
This “Treasury slams Labor’s IR plan” is actually Treasury slamming Costello’s fantasies of what he rooly and trooly wanted the ALP IR policy to be.
…and like the good little clueless dolts they are, the MSM is on to the ’scandal’ in a shot.
It must be lucrative at the bottom end of the media business when you can so afford to insult the intelligence of any thinking reader or viewer.
It actually doesn’t matter, because at the last election the majority decided that they didn’t mind a bit of extra inflation in the economy if it meant that you couldn’t be sacked for no reason whatsoever.
VIC newspoll out yesterday. Probably lost amongst the news of the VIC budget and fed newspoll.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23652120-5006785,00.html
Shanahan breathless revelations
verbalkint and Possum Comitatus your better than me, I only read them far enough to find out how far you had to read until you where told that this wonder was written before the election.
Shanahan really is a lost cause.
Thank you Stringa, that had completely escaped my notice. Victorian Newspoll thread up here.
Rudd and Albanese have ripped into Shannahan’s lame attempt to give the Libs a bit of a leg-up with this totally misleading piece of nonsense.
Strangely, enough, Hockey has claimed not to even have seen the “old” Treasury Paper.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23659072-5013871,00.html
For once Crikey has got it right. Bernard Keane writes -(in part)
There are five stages of grief, they say. Most members of the Federal Liberal Party are still at various points on that journey, some well-advanced down the road to acceptance, some still angry about being turfed out, most, still raw and hurting, somewhere in between. But nearly everyone has moved on from denial. Even Julie Bishop has been dragged away from the corpse of the previous government. Yes, her fingernails may be leaving Warner Bros cartoon-like tracks in the ground as she goes, but she has finally figured out that her plan to revive Work Choices was never going to work.
Which leaves Dennis Shanahan. Judging by today’s effort in The Australian, “Treasury slams Labor’s IR plan”, Dennis not merely hasn’t accepted the death of the previous Government, he’s sitting by the corpse and reckons he can feel a pulse.
Lets hope Shananigans gets the message. But I doubt it!
I loved this bit at the bottom of Shannahan’s article. Trying to blame the increase in inflation and interest rates on Labor’s plan to scrap Workchoices.
Funny how, with less than 5% of workers on Statutory Contracts, that suddenly there is a “devestating increase in “likely job losses; rising inflation, prices and wages; more interest rate rises; productivity and real disposable income falls; and greater difficulty for the “most vulnerable job seekers to find work”.
“more flexible labour market”; What rot. Less than 5% of the workforce on contracts. What about the other 95%.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23657749-5013871,00.html
I thought that Shannahan had gradually come to grips with the fact that his beloved Liberals were no longer in power and he had started to write some “reasonably” (for him), objectice pieces, lately.
Seems as though he thinks there is a federal election on in June this year and he had better get moving on helping out with the Liberal campaign.
What an absolute peanut and a disgrace to the profession of journalism.
[objectice] —–objective!
BS (just too funny on thier own those initials…) is welcome to any side of politics he feels an affinity for, but it’s the abject lack of inciteful, rational or credible thought that I find objectionable.
At best his arguments are built on the credibility of others, and all without any contextual analysis of who and what the others are. The inference is that if someone said it, it’s true, and therefore I’m right too. He’s like some super anti-hero.
[superman music] “…reduces complex thought to simply irrelevant clichés in a single article..”
He’s been walking around with his pants around his ankles in the world of thought for some time now – it’s reached the point where someone needs to rip his pants off publically (and repeatedly).
His actions today combined with the straight to the point rebuttals from the government and denials of credibility from the opposition might just be the start.
If anyone’s interested, Roy Morgan has a poll showing 45 per cent of “respondents” would prefer a republic with an elected president to a monarchy, versus 42 per cent against. Put Prince Charles on the throne, and the results are 56 per cent and 33 per cent. “Respondents” is in quotation marks because they have gone to the trouble of asking people as young as 14, and have provided separate but near-identical figures for “electors”.
onimod 76 says
“He’s been walking around with his pants around his ankles in the world of thought for some time now – it’s reached the point where someone needs to rip his pants off publically (and repeatedly).”
Or else rip them up and give him a super wedgie!
Hahahahahha
Nelson said today that the Treasury document (that everyone’s wiping their arse with)
wait for it…
“..proves John Howard is right and Kevin Rudd is wrong.” (I have to confirm is/was, but it doesn’t make much difference)
Yep – I can’t believe he said it either.
B52’s – “…lets do the time warp again…”
Can you hear Allbull groaning from where you are?
78
I’d prefer to see the “News Limited” socks he’s got in his pants falling on the floor, but a wedgie would be good too.
Ominod
If Brendan’s pants fell to the floor, I think we would see three “News Limited” socks
Perhaps I should get one for my nose
77
nice little twist with the “elected president” there in the question, which makes it a pretty stupid poll when viewed against the 2020 declaration of a 2 stage process.
Either stupid, or designed to fuel a particular fire…
Quite interesting to note that SA is starkly for and QLD is starkly against republicanism – that must really cost Alexander-the-clown some sleep at night.
Tannerisms:
Brendan Nelson – the only ostrich native to Australia….
(7:30 Report, May 7 2008)
83
Lovely performer, the Tannermeister. Horatio, OTOH, seems to go from bad to worse. The thing that’s got up my nose today, however, is that the MSM, including the 7.30 report, have run with this stupid Shamaham rubbish all day. Antonio, if you’re around, you’ve got some explaining to do.
Methinks the sample size of 14-17 yer olds is way too small, hence the unexpected result in favour Monarchy
The give away is the comparison between “Total respondants” and “total 18+”.
The figures shift only 1 percent when the teenyboppers are included
83
onimod Says:
Tannerisms:
Brendan Nelson – the only ostrich native to Australia….
Yes, I had a good laugh when I heard that.
Why Is Sky News covering the Howard BS? I wonder what their ratings will be?
I think the OO has forgotten about the Howard Government stacking of the ABC board already.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23662160-5014046,00.html
Peter Cosgrove unfurls his political colours.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23663178-2702,00.html
Where was Peter?
Howard destroyed the Liberal Party, they should cut him loose and rebuild their policies and image. I always picked Cosgrove for a crawler.
For those haven’t seen it, have a read of Bernard Keane’s “A Toast to John Howard: What Downer Should’ve said” at todays Crikeys free site.
After reading Howard’s comments, I feel distinctly nauseated. I wonder why?
92
thanks – on the money
The Queensland Liberal council meets tonight to discuss joining the Pineapple party.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/libs-meet-to-discuss-merger/2008/05/09/1210131197637.html
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23668892-601,00.html
The budget for this is a joke. There is no way a system that complex will be created for $17 million. It will be lucky to done for 10 times that. The alterations to the IT alone will be a lot more more.
Apparently Dolly has taken back the shadow Foreign Ministers job, and he’s ‘indignant’ about the Australian response to Burma. He’s probably got a point, but what isn’t he ‘indignant’ about any more?
At least he’s not claiming inflation and the tooth fairy are related, and he seems relatively interested in a social issue.
onimod Says:
May 7th, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Rx tip: Watch this space. The Tannermeister is the next Keating in the making. In the cutting wit department, that is – if not higher office in due course…
97 ominod
Yeah, thought much like you on hearing Dolly, but then thought if the military crud governing Burma doesn’t let any aid in, why get indignant about an amount?
I’m a little confused again and need some clarification from Glen or similar. We were assured that it was Workchoices that was causing our boom in employment prior to the last election. Yet now Workchoices is gone employment figures are still trending up. Unemployment is still at historic lows and only high immigration and increased participation rates have stopped it falling lower. See the latest April 2008 figues here:
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyCatalogue/362607CA0519045ACA25712B000D0425?OpenDocument
Can someone explain this please? Could it be that it was the mining boom all along and Workchoices hasn’t created a single job that wouldn’t have happened anyway? As a constructive policy suggestion, if the conservatives really just want to just lower wages, why don’t they start where they are highest – executive salaries. Plenty of scope for wage cuts there without making anyone go hungry.
100
I like the story doing the rounds that there hasn’t been a wages breakout for some time and that the new government is going to cause it.
It might or might not be statistically significant, but obviously executive salaries is the elephant in the room there. It’d also be interesting to compare the productivity graph placed against the executive salary graph for the last decade so we could see if it’s all been worth it?
Does anyone know a source of these statistics?
The welfare card is a case sign of the hopeless state that is the Liberal party. Any half-decent opposition would be making hay with such an uncosted policy. And they could have used the fact they were in government only 6 months ago to their advantage. I’ll now explain why:
The policy is really just extending step taken during the NT intervention of restricting half of payments to indigenous people to being used on food and estisentials. The goal is to increase this to the wider community. The primary reason for this is stop the arguement that the current policy is only targetting the indigenous population.
However, there is a major different between remote indigenous communities and the population of Australia that lives in Cities and regional areas. That is the commerical marketplace in remote Indigenous communities is fairly small. Even the large towns in NT, still only have a relatively small number of shops (in comparision to larger cities). Even with this advantage, the NT intervention has cost almost a billion dollars already and a fair chunk (millions/tens of millions) of this is likely to have been spent on putting in place a system to do just these communities.
As the opposition was in government only 6 months ago, they can argue that they even looked at doing something like this policy but figured that it would have been unworkable and not cost effective. They could highlight the fact $17 million is not going to be anywhere near enough, the ongoing adminstration is going cost a bomb as well and clearly the budgeting was done by some second grade accounting monkey who doesn’t have a clue. They could even argue that it is one more step on road to the nanny state and it is a restriction on freedom of choice. And there is a whole load of questions around what would count as essential and what is not; as well as what payment types are going to restricted (ie stopping people playing the pokies with their age pension?).
Of course, they won’t make any of these arguements as they think their (strinking) supporter base probably supports the idea. But the only way, they are going to get back onto the field is to outflank the government. And this one of these issues.
After reading Possum’s latest on Crikey (excellent as per usual) where he shows that the Libs have been burning their base at a faster rate under Nelson, it struck me as wonderous strange how the little darlings (sans Bracket Creep) flocked to resurrect Howard from the formaldahyde and do a strange Liberal ritual of self-abasement.
Here’s a ‘leader’ that left their party in complete ruin, after a decade of playing Costello for a whoopee cushion, a ‘leader’ who’d let the state parties fester into supturating irrelevence, and who’d super-glued his backside to the throne!
These sad little f@ckwads are still in complete denial!
Taking out Howard’s political corpse from the embalming fluid and carrying it aloft twice a year is going to be their new affirmation ritual?
What kind of hallucinogen do these people serve at these functions?
The FIRST Liberal to stand up and say that Howard was a creepy little gnome who had hypnotised them all into thinking his petty reign was ‘leadership’ will be the next real leader of the conservative side of politics, and it will take cojones and hard work to then bring them all back to their senses.
Only then can they leave the corpse in the glass case for a reminder of what a real leader should NOT look like.
102 B.S. Fairman – I can’t believe it is only the cost that is getting up your nose. What is it really? If the cost was not a problem would you be in favour of it?
A welfare usage restriction system such as is in opperation in the Northern Territory would be easier to introduce if cash was abolished and replaced with an electronic card system. (Just an idea)
104- I was arguing the case that the Liberals should be putting. There are many issuses with the policy, but cost is the easiest for the Liberals to attack with as it doesn’t go against their ideology.
Personally, I am paid not to think on these issues. I just get sick of being asked to produce miracles from the petty cash jar.
105- Like the soviet style ration books?
106 B.S. Fairman – so you’re not against it other than cost?
“Personally, I am paid not to think on these issues.” Aren’t you already thinking on this issue?
Surely if you’re wanting the opposition to take up the fight there must be something you’re against. What are those other issues with the policy?
107 The policy reeks of Pearsonism being mainstreamed to me. I just don’t think the Pearson model is the best for dealing with Social security payments. If people want to live in a nanny state where every item purchased is ticked off by a bureaucrat then Pearson is fine.
Having watched the petrol price ripoff by the big supermarket chains, I wouldn’t have to much faith in their being able to handle a process of this nature. The costs and charges are sure to be far more than anybody could imagine at this stage. Are the supermarket chains going to be able to refuse service to customers?
What do people live on if the card gets lost or stolen? How practical is it if people forget their pin numbers and we are talking the most socially and medically deprived people in Australia here. How long is it going to take from application until the card is delivered to the customer? Bridges could have some big queues of people living under them due to this proposal.
108 steve – It’s amazing how, when someone is against a government funded and run system, the term “nanny state” comes up. Yet when they like that system its not a problem, its something the government should be involved in. Maybe its a “nanny state” handing out various benefits to people. Hell, we have a government health system, does that make us a “nanny state”? We try and educate and restrict people from smoking and gambling does that make us a “nanny state”? We have laws against taking drugs does that make us a “nanny state”? So just what is and isn’t acceptable as government involvement in our lives and who decides?
If this card isn’t the answer what is?
I must say Steve you make some good points but this is stretching it – “How practical is it if people forget their pin numbers and we are talking the most socially and medically deprived people in Australia here.” We all have pin numbers and cope very well with procedures already in place.
Gary, a huge proportion of chronically homeless tend to be because of associated mental health problems and you can ditto that for the chronically mentally ill being sacked regularly if they relapse into their illness. By definition many of these people don’t cope with what the rest of society can do readily, including things like remembering pin numbers.
Anyhow why did Rudd send all his caucus members out to check out homeless issues for themselves if he is going to just implement the old tired Pearson and Brough type policy?
The Queensland Government is currently trialling the Pearson model in four remote communities in Cape York and I fail to see why the Feds wouldn’t wait for those results to come in before spreading the program Australia wide.
Another classic Nelsonism: No to a tax cut. The Medicare surcharge should have been indexed and it was one of the many faults of the Howard government that they left it kicking in at $50,000 for singles when it feel below average annual income (about 57k now). It was designed to hit the rich but started to get the average earner in recent years. A smarter move from Nelson would have been to admit it needed to change.
BSF, another thing I loved about the Costello era was how the annual tax return morphed into a tax bill each year.
The Pineapple Party has been renamed.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/nelson-backs-off-endorsing-merge/2008/05/10/1210131320603.html
Now the splits are beginning in the Liberal Party.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/merger-set-to-split-qld-liberals/2008/05/10/1210131327872.html
The Pineapple and Chicken Party?
Pineapple and chicken – could be a pizza?
Could this be their logo ?
http://www.chickentreat.com.au/getfile.aspx?Type=document&ID=217&ObjectType=3&ObjectID=598
(it’s a pdf file
Had to laugh when I read that Downer was indignant in relation to Rudd offering $3m to the Burma relief effort.
His complaint that it is insufficient, looks a bit lame when France, a country with a much larger economy than Australia, is also giving $3m.
Here’s an excellent comment from Shannahan’s Blog where he is still sounding off about Rudd not including Japan, India & Indonesia in his recent whirlwind trip.
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/dennisshanahan/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pms_foreign_fumbles
119 – Unless Burma let’s the aid in, it is a bit pointless to give more at the moment.
Brian Toohey in the Big Chair on Insiders?
BB demands to know: WHERE’S PIES?????
Well it will be interesting to see where the Pineapple and chicken Party go from here. It is difficult to see the Queensland Liberals sticking to any program laid out before them. Even if they are successful in forming the new Party what happens if the week after full proportional voting is re introduced?
I’d say that even if the Liberals vote the proposal down the members for Kawana and Noosa would probably join the new party. I’d expect the other six would remain as Liberals.
If the Liberals vote for joining the Pineapple and Chicken Party then policy differences such as daylight saving, tree clearing, drinking purified water, solving urban traffic gridlock and health policy will become unmanageable.
Onimod 101
Executive salaries is my thesis topic, and what a rich vein of failed right-wing rhetoric it is. The first thing to say is that despite the many claims that executives earn their huge pay packets, there is amazingly little independant research in Australia to prove it. Most such claims rely on selective ad-hoc examples, and tend to involve circular arguments. Of the few quantitive studies done, that by John Shields at Uni NSW proved that the correlation between Australian executive pay and company performance was actually negative. That is, the higher paid the CEO, the poorer performing the company! In percentage terms, executive salaries have been rising faster than GDP, average wages, and corporate earnings. There seems to be NO indexical base that they can be linked to which justifies their growth.
IMO the current level of executive salary is simply an abuse of positional power. That is, boards of directors do not provide effective arms-length control over CEOs, and the latter stack remuneration committees to ensure the pay outcomes they want. See research by Lucian Bebchuck at Harvard Law School (that den of socialism) for detailed research on the US situation.
Regretably this is alos an area where Australia “punches above its weight”, or shoudl I say, “pays beyond its means”. Our CEO pay is not the highest (IS is by far) but we are in teh tophalf dozen, even ahead of Japan and Germany. Why should our highest paid CEOs be paid more than the world heads of Toyota or Daimler Benz? Its absurd.
Radical right theory is that the market will solve it. So we had reforms a few years ago to provide more information to shareholders. It made no difference.
Socrates, it all seemed to come to a head in 2004 when the interest in any public disclosure of Executive salaries as a whole just seemed to be taken off the Australian agenda.
Speaking of dodgy right wing economics, I just read a story about Malcom Turnbull’s rection to the reported raise in luxury car tax as “the politics of envy”.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/politics-of-envy-turnbull/2008/05/11/1210444217984.html
Turnbull suggested that raising the tax on cars over $57000 will increase the cost of all cars. What nonsense! In economics there is a theory of substitution that if you raise the cost of A, and B is a substitute for A, then rises in demand for B will increase the cost of B. But these examples are not substitutes. Does anyone think that a rise in Mercedes’ prices will increase the sales of Kias?
So in economic terms Turnbll’s comments are nonsense. In political terms, talking of the politics of envy after ten years of wedge politics and tax cuts to the wealthy is pretty good material for satirists. They are desperate and pathetic; Turnbull as well as Nelson.
I said before that Labor faced some risks in this budget. They did. But if they stick to their guns and the Liberals respond in this predictable and easily disproven way, then Swan will have an armchair ride. And this is before all the dirt comes out in estimate hearings about all the cost blowouts and spending on last years election pork. Still plenty of Liberal embarrassment in store there.
On this form the honeymoon won’t be over before the next election. Once Labor actually starts delivering on major promises (eg tax cuts, climate change & health reform) the window of opportunity for the opposition to recover will close until Labor make their first major stuff up in office.
Steve 125
You are right but this is where the hypocracy of the previous government about productivity, never mind equity and justice, really showed. As I said ther has been little comprehensive study of CEO salary in Australia. But in the US Bebchuck showed that by the end of the 90s executie salaries consumed about 10% of all the profits of major comporations in the US (on average; top 800 listed companies studied). So they have become so big that they really are a huge cost to share owners, and a source of inefficiency. Hence, why no government action?
124 Socrates
Interesting. I hope your thesis topic doesn’t make you too negative…
I’m no expert, but companies like Whole Foods in the US seemed to be attempting to address it last time I looked, with caps on salaries relative to an average worker.
Of course once you’ve got a lot of money you’re entitled to earn a lot more from it:
http://www.forbes.com/2006/04/20/john-mackey-pay_cx_hc_06ceo_0420wholefoods.html
127 [Hence, why no government action?]
Socrates, had a bit of a Captain cook when Onimod first raised this issue yesterday and I think this from Costello is the reason. It explains why 2004 was the last of this discussion.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2003/10/08/962351.htm
I did see one study in passing that found the more CEO’s are paid, the poorer the performance of the company.
129 Steve
Hmm really helped Telstra shareholders put a lid in sol’s salary. . .NOT!
Thomarse, post 2004 costello and Howard just came out tut tutting every time an executive payrise hit the headlines. It was typical of the era, claim to have fixed a problem with no measurable outcomes to say the problem was fixed.
122
Bushfire Bill
Do you think Insiders finally got the message re Pies?
If so, how do we get rid of Andrew Bolt?
The computer for every HS student seems to have been made in haste, with no thought re the needed rewiring/cabling/security/consumables. Parents having to fundraise to meet these additional costs.
Could that be the reason re ALPs lower support in this Newspoll?
Any Bludger involved in this?
Thom
Re computers, I don’t know whether made in haste as I have seen articles that say Fed labor give computers and state handle the installation.
But as for negatives, my kids are seeing more come into their schools and is great as has beefed up on my classes on line and other online stuff letting parents and kids check work and assignments due.
Definitive improvement on computer access on previous years and don’t think many complaints on this.
Socrates
Had to laugh at Turnbulls idea of tax on luxury cars increasing inflation,
So Turnbulls idea? Remove tax on luxury cars, Rolls, Jags Mercs and inflation will drop, they should take this as a policy to the next election, “No tax on luxury cars to keep inflation low”.
Steve 129
Yes I was aware of that, but my point is the “CLERP 9″ reforms haven’t worked as promised. CEO salaries are still going up faster than inflation or the share index.
Can someone explain to me how upping the tax on luxury cars will automatically mean all car prices will go up as Turnbull says.
135
Rod
Great to hear the policy is delivering computers and consequent results. Obviously your state govt is picking up the tab for the associated costs.
When Rudd & Co spent an hour deciding policy before his policy launch, delaying that by an hour, and ended up not matching Ratty’s spending spree I think a lot was cut/not announced re the education revolution–surely that was more than just more computers?
It was more than just the computers Thomarse – great big wads of education funding, which means education announcements in the budget is where some long term policy action might be come Tuesday night, but considering the fiscal environment, we might all have to do a bit of reading between the lines to get a handle on what might be coming further down the track.
Thx Poss
Will do some reading between the lines Tue!
Education is so important! I believe that since education is about the best investment a state can make in itself I would even supprt some funding going into even the wealthiest private schools (on a per student basis) with extra funds for the poorest public schools. Hopefully the budget will impose an efficiendy dividend on the schools currently getting embarassingly large amounts of public money.
137
Gary Bruce
I guess if the argument goes if the least of the prestige cars rises in price by x dollars the top non-prestige car might also go up by x dollars (or some fraction of it) and so on down the line. Depends on whether buyers of cheaper cars would wear the extra cost or drive their present old banger another year or two.
Thom
With some schools there may be no extra work/ cost needed, ours uses a wireless network, so buying extra laptops just means adding extra to the network, minimal time and no cost, but extra time and benefits for the kids.
With other schools I know that parents jump in and help create the networks, from their experience and background, it is a bit like the working bees of old where you helped on fixing/ building new playground equipment or on the discos for fund raising.
Gary
In Malcolms world when the price of the roller goes up $5,000 because of the new car tax, then the local Kia dealer will automatically increase the price of the Rio by $500 to maintain the all important stock broker/ account clerk car index valuation parity.
I understand the problems with the computers policy and how it may not have accounted for dotting all the i’s and crossing the t’s but it really had to start somewhere. 100% policy effectiveness is never reached, so there will always be good and bad stories, but the big picture must be kept in mind – we have been going backward on education; getting back to parity with the rest of the developed world will be an achievement in itself. We are probably 2 generations or more behind the education thinking of the countries we rank along side in living standard and our natural advantages that give us that ranking are diminishing at a rapid rate.
captain Allbull strikes again – the corollary of his statement this morning, that a reduction in luxury car tax will reduce inflation, is just soo intuitive it’s brilliant..no?
Seriously, there’s no way many of our politicians would be let anywhere near the helm of our top 100 companies. The later interview with John Stewart was a consumate media performance – he delivered certainty by his delivery of statistics, used them to suggest reasoned future positions and stayed right away from the sort of absolutism with which Allbull and crew seem determined to jamb down our throats.
John Stewart looked conservative and credible; Allbull looked liked an overcaffinated doomsday merchant with a ‘the end of the world is nigh’ placard.
Oh and while we’re on car tax, if the concession that’s caused the proliferation of Toorak tractors on our roads isn’t removed I’ll, I’ll, I’ll…probably do nothing but continue to be pi$$ed off with it.
143
onimod
Certainly one Peter Costello isn’t being offered a job anywhere near the helm of one of our top 100 companies (:
Re: exec salaries, there was a TV proggie last week about the interesting fact that when companies are going belly up, productivity increases, often substantially. A good recent example being Mitsubishi where the last car rolled off the line a week earlier than planned.
It sounds counter intuitive because the workers would appear to have little incentive – they’re about to get the bullet. But the explanation appears to be that the bosses are focused on the winding up instead of bossing which allows the workers to simply get on with it in relative peace.
Often management are a hindrance, not a help.
145 Mayo
To be fair in my research I have found examples of good executives who probably do earn their money. The trouble is they all get millions, even below average performers. It is the latter cases that prove the market for them is rigged.
143 Onimod
I strongly agree with you on the 4WD concession – here is a subsidy to imported vehicles with far worse than average outcomes for fuel consumption, emissions and safety. More than 80% are registered in cities now too – its got nothing to do with helping farmers.
Thinking further about Turnbulls nonsense, if it is true then its like saying “if you raise the tax on high paid CEOs then workers’ wages go up”. If only.
I had only just gotten my BS meter fixed again since Howard retired. Every time he used to open his mouth the needle went spinning off the dial. The poor thing was permanently bent by his second term. Now Turnbull has proven that no matter how often I fix my BS meter, the next Liberal politician to open his mouth will test it to the limit again.
I’m starting to get sick of all the whingeing over the slightest change to any tax, levy, surcharge or even just rhetoric.
It’s Costello’s “Ferrari” analogy come to life.
Change the Medicare system a bit and fees are set to double.
Change the luxury car tax and the price of ALL cars goes up(eh?).
Talk about inflation (something that Howard refused to do for 11 years) and you let the inflation genie out of the bottle by increasing “inflationary expectations”.
Change or question anything in the finely-tuned turbo economy that economic genius Costello under the guidance of Australia’s greatest ever Prime Minister, Howard, left us and the lot falls in a heap.
It’s just so stupid. Why do they print this crap?
It’s going to be an interesting week in the Queensland Parliament this week with talk of the Liberals scuttling the Pineapple and Chicken Party within three weeks. Some Liberals just can not see the funny side of a fully fledged National Party takeover apparently.
“BRISBANE’S Hilton Hotel will be the venue for a showdown in three weeks over whether to merge the Liberals and Nationals in Queensland.
Opponents are planning to scuttle the latest proposal to unite the parties and install former MP Mal Brough as state president during the Liberal’s state convention at the Hilton.
The move comes just a day after current Liberal president Gary Spence and his Nationals counterpart Bruce McIver announced an in-principle agreement to band together permanently.”
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23680727-3102,00.html
Interesting to read the latest on the Pineapple Party, I reckon Anna Bligh must feel just the slightest twitch of election fever. Give ‘em a good kicking while they are down!
Bushfire Bill @ 147:
“I’m starting to get sick of all the whingeing over the slightest change to any tax, levy, surcharge or even just rhetoric.”
Come off it mate, Rudd’s had a pretty easy time of it so far. Good for him, too, that’s fine, but you must have an incredibly thin skin if you reckon he’s copped a lot of whingeing so far.
From some research on the weekend, I found some more interesting data to reflect on the Howard years with. Its about growth. Australia’s GDP grew at about 3.8% per annum between 1993 and 2006. Thats pretty good – 10th out of 37 OECD countries, with China leading the way. But if you look at GDP per capita ours is now about $35500, still mid-field after a decade of above average growth. Its because our population was also growing faster than the OECD average. When you look at GDP growth per capita, we are only around 2%, pretty much the OECD average. So we are not growing in cleverness or productivity any faster than average. We are just importing lots of people to fill low skill jobs.
See
http://puck.sourceoecd.org/vl=5070372/cl=14/nw=1/rpsv/factbook/020201.htm
Socrates (146) I am amused by your BS meter. Probably because quite often (but not always) I have a STL (sh*t toleration level) meter operating when I read some of the comments on PB threads. Generally my STL meter is set at a fairly high level.
Have you seen this poll William?
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23680993-5006301,00.html
153
There’s a nice link to mortgages in that article – will those people vote Liberal while they’re in those mortgages?
It goes some way to explaining the crud coming out of Allbull’s mouth; he’s trying anything he can to stop the mega-mortgage-conned from becoming permanently non-liberal. Without getting too negative, that group fell for the Liberal policies last time; I guess Allbull is hoping they will again.
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,25479,23681230-5013951,00.html
There’s going to be an awful lot of unhappy voters, one way or the other.
Onimod
It seems to me there are actually two groups of voters that the Liberrals stand to lose for a long time. One group is, as you say, those in huge mortgages who were led to believe the boom would never bust.
The second group is less vocal but just as annoyed (at least the ones I work with). It is Generation Y (Generation X already hates all politicians). These are the young 20 to 30 year olds that are now priced out of the housing market by the boom. Howards words that he “didn’t hear anyone complaining about the rising value of their homes” are infuriating to this group. They are also one of the biggest inflation risks – because they must feel they need to increase their wage to have any chance to buy a home.
RACQ 1 Turnbull 0
Turnbul’s car price claim has just been questioned by a long time car industry watcher. RACQ External Affairs General Manager Gary Fites speculated that the change to luxury car tax might lower prices. He said that, given the strong dollar, some importers would probably adjust their car specifications and margings to stay just under the limit. See:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/12/2241803.htm
Fites has worked for RACQ for over a decade and knows the industry very well.
In a way, Nelson can take comfort from Turnbull’s performance over this. It shows he is not the worst leadership candidate in the Liberal Party.
Socrates @ 156,
And, with all due respect to our friend at RACQ, pigs might fly.
156
Whinging about car prices goes straight over my head, but the relative pricing of items between Australia and the US, when our dollar is approaching parity, shows up pretty clearly some of the structural problems we’ve got.
The price of electronic goods here is exorbitant relative to the US, and with very little reason.
I do think there will be some crafty dealing with car specifications that will cause some market shifts around the luxury tax limit. I would rather see a european taxation system on vehicles however, where taxation is calculated on engine capacity – it has a very similar effect with far more environmental benefit. If carried across the commercial vehicle fleet it might even trigger some serious thinking of freight in this country.
157 Dyno – that’s it? No argument suggesting why he is wrong?
Well, putting taxes up rarely reduces the price of stuff, does it?
What is more likely is that exhcnage rates are making imported vehicles cheaper, so the govt can put the tax up without it really being felt in anyone’s pocket. A neat, if somewhat phony, piece of politics, that doesn’t hurt anyone much, if at all.
But a tax increase making the price go down? Sorry but I don’t think too many people are going to believe that!
Dyno
If you are familiar with the economic literature about price stickyness and price substitution, there are many examples where exactly that can happen, irrespective of exchange rate movements. The opposite can also happen. Basically, producers sell for the price that the market will bear, sometimes absorbing cost increases, other times increasing prices when there is no cost increase. So I certainly don’t suggest tax increases reduce prices generally. That isn’t what I (or Fites) said either. It depends on the market. In this case, it might well mean a price fall for SOME cars.
The point is not that either an overall car price rise or fall will necessarily be the outcome in this instance. The point is that Turnbull, for all his business reputation, has made a statement that is obviously false – that ALL car prices will rise from a tax increase on one sector of the car market. He really demonstrated a sound bite level of knowledge of economics when it comes to public policy. Swan must be laughing.
Thanks Dyno – I don’t think he is suggesting all prices will go down. (”I wouldn’t be surprised if we see in fact some tuning down of some prices just to make sure that some do come in under that limit.”)
He is right to suggest it is a very competitive market out there particularly if people shy away because of the tax increase and then we may see “bargains” being offerred. I’ve seen that happen plenty of times with many items. If they are not selling then something has to be done.
GB @ 162,
Agree with that, I don’t think Fites was saying all car prices would go down as a result of this tax increase. They might go down for other reasons, though.
(89) Just me,
Cosgrove should be reminded that our ‘great leader’, JWH, was so in touch with the troops he adored that he ‘forgot’ to invite the widow of SGT Andrew Russell, to the wreath-laying ceremony (for her husband) at the AWM in 2003.
Scumbags.
Car prices
car prices are bizarre things. If you delve a little deeper in to it you can find plenty of models being sold in Oz that are loss makers for the major manufacturers, for the sort of reasons that Fites is suggesting.
Here’s a specific example i know about: a manufacturer has designed and constructed a vehicle and tooled up for years of production for what is a very mass market semi-luxury vehicle that is sold world wide. This vehicle has been identified with this brand for decades. Unfortunately the construction cost of this vehicle is higher than the sale price for the vehicle in almost all markets across the globe. Given the design cycle of the vehicle there’s stuff all they can do about it except keep pumping them out to maintain market volume; each one is sold at a substantial loss.
To correct the problem they have to wait for the next design cycle and design the new car to be cheaper to construct. In the mean time they have to keep adding features and rebates to the car they’re already selling at a loss to keep the current production run competitive.
The dealers are still making their profit, as are the shipping companies and various country wholesalers while the parent country cops it hard.
International economics at work.
The “Luxury” car tax change will make little difference, it kicks in at about $60 grand after on road costs. So cars that cost around $63 Grand may be cheaper as the price will drop to avoid the tax.
As my mum said on mums day “If you want a Jag and it is going to cost $3 grand more, you are still going to buy it”. Or who cares if your company lease payment goes up $20 a week?
Good politics though – tax those rich folks.
166
bingo – big kerfuffle over a small issue
From the ALP perspective any discussion can be written off by its insignificance. Allbull fell for it hook line and sinker.
Maybe he had the fluffly slippers on and knew stuffing another foot in his mouth wasn’t going to hurt that badly?
Agree with 166 and 167 – it’s utterly trivial. Turnbull should have just said so, if he had been smarter.
New federal politics open thread up.