The Australian reports tomorrow’s Newspoll will have Labor’s two-party lead at a relatively modest 57-43. However, Liberal hopes of positive headlines have been dashed by a preferred prime minister rating showing Brendan Nelson back in single figures at 9 per cent, compared with 72 per cent for Kevin Rudd.
UPDATE: Graphic here.
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Labor would be happy with these figures, but Brendan must be really worried. Single digit as preferred PM is not a good look.
Plus the Collatorial damage to the Liberal Brand caused by the WA Branch and Buswell.
(PS. William, would it be possible when you close off a link to hyperlink the text to the new thread ?)
Nelson is gone. Turnbull is just hoping that the budget is well received so that it ends Nelson’s leadership.
I still puzzled why anyone would want the poisoned chalice at this stage?
Can’t they give it to ’safe pair of hands’ Beazely. I mean, Costello?
who cares. this is like worrying about Beazley’s figures in june 1996. The next election will be a ruddslide and the government will hang on for about another decade. give me a call in ten years.
Nath – who you tipping for 2020 ‘lection?
peter j nicol, well, looking at the electoral history you would expect that the libs will get back in after ’bout a decade.
My 2020 tip: Bill Shorten for Liberal PM. Lindsay Tanner to be treasurer.
surely by 2020 sophie panopolous will have exterminated all opposition in the liberal party.
Still awful figures for the LNP but the better result I think because of less negativity and trivial criticising from them. Or is it people paying less attention to politicians and starting to fall back to their usual football side.
Sophie might have gotten rid of all traditional support and Deliver Us From Evil ™, but I reckon once she has Dean Mighell might try to take control of the party through sheer numbers, with 104 Exhibition becoming the new HQ for the ETU.
I am sooooooooo impatient to see the next WA poll
The latest Shamaham Turd polishing effort.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23652050-601,00.html
Image link
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/newspoll-6may.jpg
Note that the Dennis Shanahan article in the Australian was headlined “Coalition gains support.”
I wonder how it works … do they sit round a table at The Australian and ask for volunteers to write outright lies?
Change only a few words and you get this:
According to the latest Newspoll survey, conducted exclusively for The Australian last weekend, the ALP primary vote leads the Coalition by 47 percent to 37 per cent.
Based on preference flows at the last election, the two-party-preferred vote still has Labor with a huge 14-point lead of 57 per cent to 43 per cent.
The personal support for Opposition Leader Dr Nelson has worsened with a fall back to single digits as preferred prime minister and a decline in satisfaction. This is the Coalition’s best party result since Dr Nelson became Opposition Leader.
The only Opposition leader in Australia with a lower personal rating is embattled West Australian Liberal leader Troy Buswell, who survived an attempt to remove him as leader yesterday.
A four point turn around would normally be seen as a massive swing. There are two possible candidates for why it has occurred: 1) Tough budget talk, 2) The public were not quite as happy with the 2020 summit as the average PBer.
I would say mostly the former but with a little of the latter.
I think the 4 point turn around might have more to do with 51 being too high rather than a shift in public opinion in the last 2 weeks. The two before that were 47 and 48 so another 47 is certainly within the ballpark for a flat value between 47 and 50.
It’s still a poll, and there are still margins of error. The Australian is whistling in the wind.
What I find interesting is the number of people now talking about the destruction of he Liberal brand. Nath asks to be woken up in 10 years. For the next change of government I think he is going to have to what a little longer than what we currently consider the normal election cycle. Remember we had to wait 20 years for the labor party to recover from the efforts of the extreme left. The labor party was a strong organization with a solid funding base. I doubt the same can be said of the Liberal party.
If the current small minded crop succeed in destroying the brand, exactly what is the Liberal parties value.
I think the next twenty years are going to be interesting because we are going to see new political structures emerge.
Poor Nelson cant get a trick. A 4 % TPP improvement is overshadowed by a 1% MOE movement into single figures! WS at 15, why is reporting an improvement in 2PP a lie??
We need to be consistent here. Just as we got annoyed when the Oz focussed on Rudd’s PPM instead of the 2PP when it suited them, it is equally annoying that the media in general is focussing on a single point PPM dip when the headline stat is really the 4% 2PP change which is outside the MOE
Andrew, I think you make some good points but really, how relevant is this poll to anything? The next Federal election is still 2 1/2 years away.
fulll support of chair sniffing buswell is not helping nelson,s standing in the community
Looks to me as if the much touted budget bounce from last year has finally turned up for the Coalition. LOL
HUGE Dennis.
#22
The polls now might not be directly relevant to the next election, but they have a big effect on the parties and their actions (e.g., leadership rumblings and changes, policies), so indirectly they are very relevant to what happens in 2 1/2 years.
26 Triton – Collectively, over a long period of time, these polls can have an effect on parties and certainly in an election year they have an effect but these early polls individually have minimal effect. We can over analyse them IMHO.
Of course, it’s just as likely to be a rogue poll. Remember late last year we all counselled against single polls.
It’s unlikely that hundreds of thousands of people have simply changed to the Libs in a week or two, isn’t it? What would possibly have caused that to happen?
#27 GB – Well, talk that Nelson’s future as leader is severely limited has been going almost since he took over, and it’s been the polls that have kept it bubbling along. Many people don’t think he’ll last much beyond the budget, which would make his stint a truly dreadful one (it’s dreadful enough that the possibility alone does not seem ridiculous). If the 2PP were around 55-45 and his PPM were a still pitiful 20 rather than single digits he wouldn’t be under such pressure.
Meanwhile in WA…
http://tinyurl.com/6mypec
and re Karokegate.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=145&ContentID=71490
Dennisisms:
“Coalition gains support” = We are now going to only get decimated, not annihilated!
“Labor vote steady” = Only 10 points ahead now!!
“Rudd support relatively unchanged, Nelson steady” = Damn, Rudds up another 2 points on Nelson!
“Rudd honeymoon” = A magical 16 month Rudd honeymoon, with a 6 month Brendan Nelson divorce
“Nelson has bottomed out” = Christ surely things can’t get worse?! Can they???!
“Election surge” = everyone will vote for the party i want to win on election day despite the polls showing they will lose dismally
29 Triton – I agree but it’s the collective poll results that have Nelson in trouble, not just one poll. I repeat we can make too much of one single poll.
The man (if you could call him one) is a complete twat.
http://news.smh.com.au/there-is-no-inflation-crisis-nelson/20080506-2bc5.html
and Allbull is singing the same song.
New name for a combined coservative party could be HISBIA “heads in sand bums in air” or else just call them the Ostrich Party.
Vera 34
You got that right!
Nelson was exactly the same when a minister in Howard’s Gov. Remember the denials and stories he told regarding Iraq and all the time saying how wonderful Howard was, so he could keep in good with the boss.
If he admits that there is an inflation crisis then logically the blame goes back to those “wonderful” economic managers Howard and Costello. He won’t have that. He is like his old boss, he can tell these stories without turning a hair.
The Libs are very much still in denial.
Actually a good poll for Labor. The Libs will be wondering are they improving or not, do we keep Brendan longer or not…oh wot to do!
I think I heard Nelson say that Treasury advised a 1% of GDP surplus and that is what Costello produced. (In relation to the CH9 FOI documents).
Yet Turnbull said that last years budget was a 1.6% of GDP surplus. Who is correct?
The half of the Queensland Nationals who bothered to vote for the Pineapple Party
have made sure it has large minority support with a 97.3% tick of approval. We now wait with bated breath to learn when the Federal Liberals will vote the proposal down followed by how many Queensland Liberals will then strike out on the swim towards the sinking ship.
http://www.qld.nationals.org.au/news/default.asp?action=article&ID=2763
Radio reports throughout the day were claiming a 50% voter turnout and this Courier Mail report:
“Mr McIver said just over half of the party’s total membership of almost 10,000 people responded to the ballot.”
and:
“Queensland Nationals president Bruce McIver said today 90 per cent of members who voted in a ballot were in favour of a new single, united non-Labor party.”
It seems to be a bit like a fishing tale where the numbers grow as they get closer to the National Party official website.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23653562-3102,00.html
I can understand the LNP living with Brendan “I need no blanket; my love for my country keeps me warm” Nelson as a seat warmer and living with the bad polling results….
…but he needs to be knocking the shine off Kevin Rein while we suffer the bad results and it just ain’t happening
Steve @ 39, that’s a very funny article, particularly the bit about Springborg having always said and believed they were reflective of the Queensland people. Wot, they haven’t noticed the past few elections? Springborg, as a 6 month old, with thought bubble above feeding face saying “This is so good, everyone must want it”?
Vera, am very impressed with Horatio and the man who would be king’s spin on inflation. All Swan has had to do was point out that probably just about anyone who counts, in terms of economic opinion, disagrees with them. Leaves them looking like drongos.
Mr. Squiggle, as long as the LNP, particularly the leadership, can’t figure out or agree on an honest appraisal of inflation and the LNP’s role in it’s genesis – again – I suspect that taking shine off Rudd will be a pipe dream.
41 HSO, just check out the former Lib and now National Party Life member who is financing the push by Springboard.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/billionaire-to-fund-new-conservative-party/2008/05/05/1209839551128.html
“We’ll keep an eye on the Votegap measures over the next year and see if that longer term trend to the ALP continues – however slowly. If it does, Australian federal politics will change fundamentally.”
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/05/04/state-of-the-polls-%e2%80%93-old-school/#comments
Well its probably just statistical noise.
Jolly good fun though….
Then there was this amusing sequence in the Queensland Parliament Hansard from 30th of April, Wednesday last week. Page 1315:
Those are alliances.
However, in recent times there has not been an alliance between the Liberal and National parties
but a takeover by Clive Palmer. By way of interjection we heard that Clive Palmer had been a member of
the National Party for 30 years. However, the National Party forgot to tell us what he had been before
then.
Ms Jones: What was he?
Mr MICKEL: In 1975 he was a member of the Liberal Party, but in that year he decided that he
wanted a cowboy outfit for Christmas so he bought the National Party. Why was he drummed out of the
Liberal Party? It was for alleged electoral irregularities in the movement’s 1975 presidential election.
The businessman who has bought the National Party was drummed out of the Liberal Party because he
was a vote rorter.
Opposition members interjected.
Mr SPEAKER: Order! While I really do not want to throw anyone out of the chamber this morning,
some members are acting as if they very much want to be. I call the minister.
Mr MICKEL: Not only was he a vote rorter; he could not tell the truth because what he said to the
papers was, ‘How could they expel me when I had already resigned?’ What did the minutes show? The
minutes showed acceptance of his resignation as grants development chairman but not acceptance of
his resignation from the Liberal Party. How do we know that? The Liberal Party minutes of 29 August
1975 show exactly that.
The other thing is that he says he was drummed out. They were concerned about the validity of
Sunshine Coast delegates to council. Why? Because the Sunshine Coast branch had been closed. In
other words, he put delegates in there from a closed branch. It gets better. Those from the Sunshine
Coast branch were falsely made out as to addresses and were invalid because no money was received.
In other words, what we have got is a perpetual vote rorter now running the National Party.
http://www.parliament.qld.gov.au/view/legislativeAssembly/hansard/documents/2008.pdf/2008_04_30_DAILY.pdf
Snapper at 43,
Oh I agree, the LNP need to stand up and say we are accountable for the current level of inflation.
the background is Full employment, GDP above well above long term growth levels, budget in surplus, money to burn on services and infrastructure, no recession for 16 years
and all we have to suffer in order to enjoy these economic achievements is inflation at 4% when the RBA band is 2-3%?
pulease!!!!!
I can feel a new coalition coming on – the Clive Palmer Pineapple Party and Pauline’s United Australia Party
Bound to sweep the country with a veritable tsunami of support? Why Kev07 likely won’t even last until Christmas ‘08 as the voters desert on mass! LOL!
Mr Squiggle at 48 ‘money to burn on services and infrastructure’ – apart from the Alice Springs-Darwin rail line – what infrastructure did the coalition invest in ins the past 11 years?
To me it all seemed to be p1ssed up aginst the wall in baby-bonuses and other middle-class welfare…..
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