After yesterday’s North Carolina landslide and Indiana cliffhanger, most commentators have upgraded Barack Obama’s chances of securing the Democratic nomination from likely to (almost) certain. The next stage in the contest, assuming it gets that far, is next week’s primary for West Virginia, at which 28 delegates will be elected through a “modified” primary open to independents and registered Democrats.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,481 Comments
According to the NYT Caucus article – Obama Central announces 3 additional superdelegates.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/obama-announces-3-superdelegates/
There is another conflicting reports suggesting 4 supers.
I’ll post details once the DCW validates the information.
DCW has updated Obama with 1 super – DNC Jerry Meek (NC), one of the three mentioned above has already been included in the tally yesterday and the DCW are digging for further documentation from the third super Inola Henry.
Running total is now back to yesterday’s 15 advantage Clinton (or 6.5 after application of the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 263 (256+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270-1)
News is trickling in about a defection from Camp Clinton.
Virginia’s Jennifer McClellan, who used to support Clinton, has apparently endorsed Obama but like the case for Inola Henry, there are no direct quotes from either supporting the press statements (at this time). Once verification is complete it would bump Obama up one, Clinton down one, leaving us with 13 advantage Clinton (or 4.5 after the Pelosi factor).
This might have been mentioned already, but is seems that Billary is staying in until she gets her $6million she lent to her campaign back from her supporters. Then she doesn’t have to leave the campaign in the red.
Maybe the Kid should offer to pay her debt for her from his campaign if she pulls out, and maybe save himself some cash by not having to continue to campaign against her.
DCW have confirmed the endorcement of Inola Henry (CA) for Obama.
Running total is now 14 advantage Clinton (5.5 with the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 264 (257+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Just letting the Obamaphiles know that I am really enjoy the sound of one hand clapping here.
DCW is reporting that the Obama campaign have confirmed the defection of DNC Jennifer McClellan (VA) from Clinton to Obama. This brings us to a Clinton lead of 11.5 (3.5 with Pelosi).
Obama: 265 (258+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
This may have been announced earlier but George McGovern has now declared for Obama.
Dyno at 7
While George is not a super – he has a lot history.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_McGovern
The handover from the white McGovern to the black McGovern, the torch is passed from one generation to the next ……..
5
The Finnigans
So what are you doing with your other hand? (OK, don’t tell us, we’ve known for a very long time!)
9
Edward StJohn
McGovern dropped his support for the ‘electable’ Clinton actually.
When was the last time you ever backed a winner ESJ? You have an appalling bad record on this blog.
Morning All,
Quite right about McGovern, Catrina at 8.
McGovern’s “defection” will be seen by many older Dem liberals and progressives as most significant. It will mean zip to Family Six-Pak, but for folk over 50, especially Rock Choppers for whom the sermon on the mount still has resonance and who have been rooting for HRC thus far, Big George’s move will help The Kid persuade them, and similar voters that have been difficult for Obi to crack until now.
“Of all the men that have run for president in the twentieth century, only George McGovern truly understood what a monument America could be to the human race.”
Hunter S. Thompson, 1972.
Yes, Catrina, for those who lived through the ‘72 campaign and who are still inclined to vote, George McGovern’s call carries plenty of clout.
Yes, Eddy, but this time we’re gonna win son!
Morning all.
NYT says it all: “Pundits Declare the Race Over ”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/us/politics/07cnd-pundits.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
“The moment came shortly after midnight Eastern time, captured in a devastatingly declarative statement from Tim Russert of NBC News: “We now know who the Democratic nominee’s going to be, and no one’s going to dispute it,” he said on MSNBC. “Those closest to her will give her a hard-headed analysis, and if they lay it all out, they’ll say: ‘What is the rationale? What do we say to the undeclared super delegates tomorrow? Why do we tell them you’re staying in the race?’ And tonight, there’s no good answer for that.”
Oh, and Jen will appreciate the photo of the New York Post headline in the above article
While currently unconfirmed by the DCW, it looks like the Pelosi club will be expanding to included the uncommitted superdelegate Rep. Chris Van Hollen (Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/superdelegates-say-we-will-decide-2008-05-06_2.html
And on the downside, Obama’s lead in the national RCP averages has been halved today – from 0.2 to 0.1.
The only way is up!
But on the upside, Hillary’s lead in SD’s has dropped from 14 yesterday to 11 today according to RCP.
GP and DCW has:
Obama: 1589.5 delegates, 258 SDs, total of 1847 (with 177 needed to win)
Clinton: 1427.5 delegates, 269.5 SDs, total of 1697 (with 327.5 to win)
There are a further 217 delegates in the final races, and 267.5 SDs to be awarded.
FG – that’s all still post PA and narrative stuff. I’m willing to bet we’ll be out toward Obama +10 in a week after these wins and the supers that will now fall.
This about sums it up:
“So while the design of the system technically allows superdelegates to do what they think is best for the party (or for themselves and their constituents), the realities of life in a mass democracy make “overturning” even a narrow margin in votes and delegates well-nigh unthinkable. Which is why Hillary needed a chance at some sort of popular-vote lead (with Florida thrown in, if nothing else) to justify continuing her campaign. And it’s why, after last night’s results extinguished even that thin hope, her campaign is finally finished, whether she’s ready to admit it or not.”
http://thecurrent.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/why-hillary-cant-win.php
So Pancho at 18, Hillary now needs 327.5 out of remaining 484.5 delegates to win or 68%. And the reason that she is still in the race is???
FG – Just realistically looking at the numbers @18, if we skip forward to Oregon, Obama needs about one-third of the remaining delegates to get to 2024.5 (on top of his delegate gains to there which will be about 50). Getting to this mark by May 20, or just after, is not entirely out of the question.
On the other hand, if we give Clinton 60 delegates to Oregon, she then needs 100% of the remaining SDs to win. Time to go, oh tenacious one.
Andrew at 21
May 31
ESJ, you’re in step with the amazingly credible Limbaugh! On about Obama and McGovern. You haven’t got him on the wireless do you?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0508/Limbaugh_mulls_backing_Obama.html
What a genius he is:
‘Earlier, he said, “I’m now tempted to tell superdelegates to pick Obama because I now believe he would be the weakest nominee.”‘
If I tell the sun to rise tomorrow, will you all think I’m a sage?
And as for the idea that somehow Clinton’s continuance is noble or brave – BOLLOCKS!! (And I say this with the greatest respect – BOLLOCKS AGAIN!!)
It’s one thing to pursue a noble cause to the valiant end, but the cause in this case is purely Hillary. This is about Hillary and nothing else. To continue now is nothing short of pathological self-indulgence which continues to sap funds from the main game (and the other candidates for the legislature), and deprives the Party of the chance to fall in behind the obvious presumptive nominee and focus on McCain. There is no longer any rational argument for continuing. It’s over and her advisers need to say so – loudly!
This isn’t brave; it’s pathetic.
Hillary is trying to create a new ideotype in American culture – the vainglorious, delusional loser. I wonder if it will catch on.
I think that Obama will adopt a sensible course and merely ignore HRC from here on in.
I reckon it’s financial. Wind down the operation and make some of that 25 million back.
Why can’t Limbaugh’s audience see that he’s playing them for spineless, mindless chumps who will blindly believe and do anything he says??
FG because they are his audience
Pancho, so you think she is hpong to gain some donations, yet run a cheap campaign, stashing the difference in the bank, in the hope of breaking even financially?
Could be – but to do so would amount to misleading her donors.
hoping
David Plouffe hasn’t slowed, calling for donations:
‘We need to show that the voices of more than 1.5 million ordinary people donating whatever they can afford are more powerful than one person giving more than $11 million to their own campaign.’
taking swipes:
‘With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days.
While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.’
And reststing goals and the endpoint:
‘We want to be clear — we believe that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates will be and should be the nominee of our party.
And we estimate that after the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20th, we will have won a majority of the overall pledged delegates.’
FG – well she is trailing terribly, and yet has about one-third the amount of offices in the field that Obama has. For hard headed politicians who can obviously see what everyone else can, money must be a consideration in continuing. And continuing in the way they are suggests to me a bit of book balancing wouldn’t be discouraged. I’m pretty sure some big donors will have raised eyebrows about that, and will be pulling up stumps.
The financial angle is interesting – perhaps under US electoral donation/expenditure laws using donations to repay money “loaned” to a campaign is a legitimate use of such donations, and the HRC campaign has a debt of $11 million to one very special lender…
Apparently Senator Diane Feinstein of California is rethinking her support for Hillary and might cross over to the Obama camp – new rumour!
I’m amazed Senator Clinton is still campaigning, with a frigging huge debt and next to no chance of winning the nomination.Perhaps the lady is truly deluded, or the Clintons are desperately hoping for some last minute miracle or another Rev Wright to damage Obama?
Smile – a bit about campaign finance rules here: http://www.slate.com/id/2190880/
Thank God Clinton is burnt toast. She has exposed herself to be a truly unsuitable candidate for POTUS. I can’t believe, as reported in today’s Aussie press of a possible joint Obama/Clinton “dream” ticket. It would seriously undermine his image of breaking away from the old Washington insider mindset as well his slogan of “real change”.
If Clinton is staying in the race to recoup some of her $11 mil, then she is a fraud and a thief. Again underlining her unsuitability as a candidate for POTUS.
Cbet;
OBAMA, Barack 1.90 (in 40c from 36 hours ago)
MCCAIN, John 2.65 (steady)
CLINTON, Hillary 5.00 (drifting………)
Ferny sez: “Why can’t Limbaugh’s audience see that he’s playing them for spineless, mindless chumps who will blindly believe and do anything he says??”
Guess former racecaller Ken “London to a brick-on*” Howard probably said it best, Ferny:
“You can’t educate a bad mug!!”
* Brilliant dry-witted Aussie hyperbole usually delivered deadpan, (the bloke was as flamboyant as Henry Lawson or a Sep-side Howard “I’m just telling it like it is” Cossel) meaning that a favourite in a horse race was considered by “experts” to be such a “good thing”, a punter could wager the City of London with the prospect of winning a house brick should the “good thing” actually “get up”.
http://www.adb.online.anu.edu.au/biogs/A140570b.htm
Smile, I’m sure it’s legitimate legally. But I wonder how many donations she’d receive if she said,
“Look, I really need your donations to repay my loans – and by the way, if funds allow, we’ll use some of it to run a campaign in West Virginia.”
#38
I don’t know about Obama/Clinton for the election, but I can’t imagine that Obama would want Hillary as VP. By comparison they could make Bartlet and Hoynes look like the best of pals.
Hillary as VP would be a big mistake. She simply wouldn’t fit in with the “new politics” theme.
Just reading some of the U.S. blogs, it seems a lot of Obama supporters would not be happy with Obama paying off Hillary’s debts. In fact, there has been a call by supporters to email the Obama camp saying as much.
What’s with this meme of Brutusina being some kind of Brahminian charity?
Oh….. so now her devotees are expected to throw good money after bad to sooth her wounded ego and help the struggling millionaire out with her campaign debts.
Get real! Surely this fat could be used for the greater good of The Party in combatting Johnny Bomb-Bomb, or am I missing something in the big picture here?
>>Smile, I’m sure it’s legitimate legally. But I wonder how many donations she’d receive if she said,
>>“Look, I really need your donations to repay my loans – and by the way, if funds allow, we’ll use some of it to run a campaign in West Virginia.”
I guess that could we one reason to say “we’re fighting TO THE END!!!” – at least then you can ask donors for money on the pretext of running a campaign (even if you end up dramatically underspending what you would have spent in a ‘real’ attempt to win).
I wonder what reason Hillary could possibly give the unpledged supers she’s meeting with today to gain their support?
“Look, Obama’s a nice guy, but he just can’t win the lunch bucket crowd like I can. That makes me more electable”.
“But Hillary, he may be weaker than you with the low-income set, but you’re weaker than him where it counts most – in overall votes and pledged delegates.”
End of conversation.
Bedtime for another myth – Hillary’s strength and Obama’s problem with the Jewish vote:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish-Voters.aspx
FG – yeah but then Carville runs through the room yelling ‘I’m bald and angry!!!!’ and Rendell starts talking about balls. Then Ferraro can point out Obama is black, and Bill can just tell everyone to ‘CHILL THE F$% OUT!’. And don’t forget the Mark Penn document stating that rich soccer moms that are whiter than a certain shade with or without a lunchbucket are never going to vote for Obama. All of this focus on ‘the result’ is a little narrow minded.
Superdelegates: “Please pull out for the good of the party”.
Bill: “Did someone say PARTY?!?!?! There’s a party in my pants!”
From John Heilemann:
“And, who knows, maybe she is completely deluded. Maybe she still thinks she can win. But whatever else can be said of Hillary Clinton, she is no fool. What my gut tells me is that although she may not quit until June, everything that happens from this point on is sheer choreography, the orchestration of her exit — on her terms. Her good-bye may be long or it may be short, but a good-bye it will be. She hasn’t left the building yet, but we soon may see her taking up residence in the departure lounge.” —John Heilemann
http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/05/heilemann_clinton_over_and_out.html
I think Obama has no choice but to convince Clinton to be his VP running mate. He runs the serious risk of much of the Democratic voter base either not voting or deciding to vote for McCain out of fear or loathing.
Specifically I refer to blue collar workers, older people, hispanics and women.
Obama and Clinton would be the odd couple and their mutual contempt is there for all to see. But I suspect they need each other. If Obama loses the presidential vote, and Clinton isn’t his VP running mate, then his support base will blame her for the spoiling tactics used in the nomination process. Clinton will then be doomed in 2012.
At least as a VP candidate Clinton can gloat that she was loyal to the Democratic party. This gives her much goodwill for a crack in 2012 if Obama loses, and if he wins she can proclaim herself as the experienced heir apparent in 4 or 8 years.
Sceptic,
I understand the ‘Clinton for VP’ rationale, but I think it lacks credibility. Moreover, it would seriously damage Obama’s credibility as the ‘New Politics’ guy. Clinton has too much baggage (as does their relationship) from the past for this to be a credible option.
Clinton’s appearance on the ticket would give the GOP increased capacity to capitalise on her high negative ratings and to bring out the anti-Hillary crowd.
Besides, I’m not convinced by the straw polls showing a high percentage of Hillary voters won’t support Obama. This figure will shrink dramatically once the nomination process is finalised.
In short, Obama doesn’t NEED Hillary – other than for her to go quietly away.
Obama’s strategists now have to think to November. With regard to Hillary I just don’t see a payoff. On the plus side she may draw some redneck vote. Women (who have overwhelmingly been her base) will vote Democratic anyway.
Against this, her presence on a ticket gives Republicans a field day. All of her lines can just be regurgitated : ‘Obama brings a speech he made in 2002′ he hasn’t crossed the ‘Commander in Chief threshold’ he’s unelectable, he has no respect for working people…and then a scary voice at the end claiming that if the VP thinks these things…
I just don’t see it.
The Obama speech – beautifully crafted across so many themes: his upbringing, his white & black ancestry, fairness in opportunity & education & more.
How about the idea: it is not about me, or the other candidates – it is about the people. Cool stuff – this seems to tap into the idea that many people think that Clinton is in this race for herself – for her place in history.
Looks like Obama is cleverly inviting people to reflect on the idea that Clinton isn’t important in the scheme of things and there are much bigger fish to fry down the track.
Wouldn’t Obama be looking for a looking for a fresh faced (clean skin) old white guy for VP? If such a being exists?
I thought people were suggesting Bill Richardson for VP
Would that work? The obvious purpose being to bring out the Latino vote.
And by the way:
The Deathwatch now has Hillary up to her neck in it – down to 2.5%
http://www.slate.com/id/2190876/
The main reasons being:
* The McGovern defection;
* Her $6.4 million loan and ongoing lack of funds; and
* 4 more SD’s backing The Kid
Maybe Obama would look at a white female Governor. Preferably conservative by Democrat standards.
Is there anybody that stands out as a potential VP?
The VP needs to be a balancing act to round out his perceived weaknesses. He’ll be looking for someone with broad appeal, governance experience and lunchbucket cred.
He probably wouldn’t want to be VP all over again, but for a minute just imagine an Obama-Gore ticket.
David Brooks quotes Gingrich:
Traditional Republicans can beat liberal Democrats when the Republican brand is in healthy shape. That is not the case now. Newt Gingrich made the crucial point in an essay in Human Events:
The Republican brand has been so badly damaged that if Republicans try to run an anti-Obama, anti- Reverend Wright, or (if Senator Clinton wins), anti-Clinton campaign, they are simply going to fail.
This model has already been tested with disastrous results.
In 2006, there were six incumbent Republican Senators who had plenty of money, the advantage of incumbency, and traditionally successful consultants.
But the voters in all six states had adopted a simple position: “Not you.” No matter what the G.O.P. Senators attacked their opponents with, the voters shrugged off the attacks and returned to, “Not you.”
The danger for House and Senate Republicans in 2008 is that the voters will say, “Not the Republicans.”
The upshot is that McCain will have no choice but to run an untraditional campaign. Anything that smacks of traditional Republican tactics or philosophy will go down in flames.
NYT
FINNS
‘Obama supporters one handed clapping’ , a classic
George McGovern gives Obama support joyously say the Obamabots
In fact George went further , he said ‘ I dont think she Hillary can win’
George would know , as 1972 Democrat Nominee he lost 48 out of 50 States !
But then George was another N.E Democrat ‘liberal’ elitist snob like Obama , the fatal attraction of the politically correct views set here.
Meanwhile , hillary declares she will fight on until there is a Nominee. And the Nominee must have 2209 delegates not 2025 say Team Hillary. Obama is well short of 2209 so there is a long fight to go.
The Hillary aids correctly say the Florida & Michigan exclusion using DNC Rules breachs the US Constitution & prior Supreme Court Constutionality rules cases have been successful especially because all 23 States on Super Tuesday were allowed to change their previous Primary election dates without penalty. Obama’s actual campaigning in both States defying DNC Rules aids all arguments
Meanwhile a Hispanic American is planning for 2012 to replicate the plastic Obama technique of pressuring SD’s under threat the Hispanic block also like SD Obama’s story will forever desert the Democrats. Obama has changed US politics alright , use racial equality & entitlement to gain SD votes with a threat rather than merit , and as for electability & policys you don’t need them. No wonder the SD’s are backing Obama , but the Hispanics are quick learners in ‘content free’ US of A.. Martin Luther King would be disguted with Obama. But Hillary will not budge unless the numbers are not there, she’s carrying MLK’s torch ‘I have a dream’ of equality based on merit not race.
This gives her much goodwill for a crack in 2012 if Obama loses,
Hillary Clinto will be 68 in 2012, getting a bit old for a first term president.
I can’t see Clinton winning the nomination from here, and the chances of Obama picking her as running mate are slim, at best, it is contrary to the underlying message of his campaign, that of change and renewal. It is also too risky to have such a dominant personality for VP, particularly one who was a fierce former opponent, the friction would be endless and could easily destroy Obama’s presidency.
55
Ferny Grover
What will be written on her death certificate, do you think?
Maybe:
Death by hundreds of thousands of cuts.(popular votes)
Death by asphyxiation (severe shortage of cash)
Death by Super Defection Syndrome (chronic)
Death by Dynastic Fatigue Syndrome (over it!)
Death by Foot in Mouth (aka Bosnia-itis)
Death by Limp Rhetoric
Signed
Dr B H Obama
“Heavenly shades of night are falling……it’s twilight time”
(William “call me Billy” Thorpe)
IAS bet:
2008 Democratic Candidate
B Obama 1.10
H Clinton 7.00
2008 Winning Party
Democratic Party 1.53
Republican Party 2.50
For Slate first timers, watch the ship for a few seconds for full effect a la Ferny at 55.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190876/
I sense an embittered ostrich afoot
Meeska, Mooska, Mouse-ka-teer,
Bludger Toon-Time, now is here!
Wed May 7:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=AlEG7.xK4llpkihyrDGcoCzV.i8C
Tues May 6:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AqkMapTJtFJoowM2ucS6ziZX_b4F
Wed May 7:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AignJW_D_GW_wT3hKhpeK4Ql6ysC
Wed May 7:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ArjTM3hvplqQUujL5FFf4WNN_b4F
Ron,
After reading through your affirmation that
I suggest you familiarise yourself with Democratic v Wisconsin (1981) which upheld the principle from Cousins v Wigoda (1974) that
The whole charade has gone through the Supreme Court before and been rejected, and there are substantial precedents to dismiss any legal case.
America should adopt a parliamentary system and proportional repersentation.
FG – it’s not even that fun to kick that ostrich in the arse fro gross stupidity anymore. Although funnily enough, I think the ‘bot’ tag is starting to make sense. Just that it is a certifiable Hillbot in existence rather than the other kind we hear so much about.
“It may be true that Hillary Clinton is the only acceptable candidate to some narrow income group of Caucasians that reside between the Mississipi river and the states bordering the East coast. But, MY GOD, who cares? It is Hillary Clinton’s utter lack of ability to be competitive among white voters in Western states that resulted in Obama breaking the proportional allocation system, and making narrow Clinton wins in states that satisfy the Penn/Wolfsson criteria insignificant.”
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/7/201747/8536/189/511380
Punters, have a look at these numbers and keep Indiana in the back of your mind for November: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/7/202535/9642/161/511384.
Obama/Edwards for 2007 Presidential Election: that’d blow the shit out of the Republicans.
Alternatively, Obama/Gore
Cheers PBers-
just got back from 2 days of no media/ internet etc, to read the good news. Haven’t had a chance to review the blow by blow posts yet( looking forward to it though), but just want to say that by all accounts it’s time for the final decision to name the candidate. How close are we to an SD’s trickle turning into an avalanche??
Obama and Edwards together would be seen as far too ‘liberal’ by the electorate. As for Obama/Gore – quite apart from the fact that he’s moved on with his life to become the environmental statesman – he wasn’t that hot a VP. The guy didn’t grow a personality till he left office – which is a shame.
‘Balance’ is the key word.
Jim Webb ticks a lot of boxes for VP to Obama.
Has anyone else noticed the “Barack Obama for President”, “VISIT THE OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN WEBSITE” ad on Politico?
Sign o’ the times.
Finns, is that the sound of one hand clapping you hear, or the sound of your tree falling in the woods.
One happy bit of Poll trivia for the numbers men, Zionists aren’t as offended as the KKK by the Wright molehill.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish-Voters.aspx
I wonder if Obama will choose a woman to run with. There must be some high-calibre female governors to choose from. That would seal the result imho.
The choice will be between the leadershp of the 1970’s and 2010’s….the Republicans and the Fading Past or the Democrats and Renewed Future.
Has anyone else noticed the “Barack Obama for President”, “VISIT THE OFFICIAL CAMPAIGN WEBSITE” ad on Politico?
Sign o’ the times.
Finns, is that the sound of one hand clapping you hear, or the sound of your tree falling in the woods.
One happy bit of Poll trivia for the numbers men, Zionists aren’t as offended as the KKK by the Wright molehill.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish-Voters.aspx
Zionists
KKK
Strange William, what part of my post is putting it into moderation?
I dunno, but I like its ad campaign.
The Gallup link is being moderated?
Bedtime for another myth – Hillary’s strength and Obama’s problem with the J3wish vote:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish-Voters.aspx
Here’s an argument for Dem Governor of PA, Edward Rendell, for VP
http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/072cgxqb.asp
TW – is it http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-J3wish-Voters.aspx
?
That’s the one Pancho.
It got moderated. Was going to say zionists aren’t as offended as KKK by Wright. But it didn’t quite come out that way. LOL.
It’s the J-wish word. It gets moderated.
Not to worry, seems it’s old news anyway.
Comments cleared from moderation – apologies for the delays.
what about the Governor of Kansas for VP with Obama
she is a woman & a Democrat in a not naturally Democratic state
I wonder if Hillary sent Limbaugh a thank you note for her Indiana win?
77
TurningWorm
AIPAC will not be pleased that their co-religionists are NOT falling in behind their preferred neocon! LOL
But the KKK, well, yes, they might not be voting for Obama, that could be true.
94
Ferny Grover
Thanks for the Rush, but it could have been bigger!
Poor Hill, beholden to that motor-mouth for her ‘comeback’. What a tacky last act this is turning into.
Clintons don’t do pride, do they?
Seem not KR:
“I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,” she said in an interview with USA TODAY. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article “that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me.”
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-07-clintoninterview_N.htm
Unless working = hard working = white.
97
Pancho
honey, I got the poor dumb white ones, and he’s got the black ones.
This is America, so lots more poor white dumb ones.
I win.
…ain’t she a class act?
Next it will be the “N” option: she’s going to call him ‘nigga’! LOL
She’s all but doing it now. I wonder how the white voters who preferred Obama are going to see her comments?
Nothing surprises me anymore, so expect more nasty little Hillary who didn’t earn the election to get a bit nastier before her final gasp.
“If she does concede defeat, the question: “What does Hillary want?”, should have some fairly obvious answers”
………from the Dan Conley link in polwire. There is a way, Bludgers, Democratic Party adults have done this stuff before when they did that filthy, lying, Contra-lovin’ degenerate Ollie North in as he lunged for the US Senate and failed because Dems played Team Politics.
The thing is, will Senator Sparkle Pony be prepared to join the rodeo that ‘made’ her.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/07/a_negotiated_exit_strategy.html
Kos names his preferred VP candidates as Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico (for the Latino vote) or Governor Katherine Sebelius of Kansas. His third choice is Governor Tim Caine of Virginia. He likes Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana but wants him to continue his work of building the Democratic Party there. He also likes Senator Claire McCaskill of Missouri but her appointedment would mean the loss of a Senate seat. Governor Janet Napolitano of Arizona would be another strong candidate. Kos regards Senator Jim Webb of Virginia as “sort of maverick”. Ohio Governor Ted Strickland and Wes Clark would be good exc ept tht they have supported Hillary.
so Mrs Calmpett (thanks for the acknowledgements HarryH, butplease feel free) still carries the torch for “real ” Americans- that would be the white working class, not blacks… like I said earlier- alley cat.
The stake has been embedded, but the death throes will be protracted and ugly it appears. Silver bullet time.
(Been interesting to see who is strating to pop up here again: clearly the US politics is getting a lot more interesting than ours, now that there is no conservative party left here.)
101
Jen
Jen, you’ve been out of touch, in a media blackout zone!
Did you not see that the rump called the coaliton pulled old Howie out of the formaldahyde and tried that classic old political technique of mouth to mouth (or other openings we shan’t mention on this ‘family’ blog)?
There was Howie giving Horatio the kiss of life (death??) and Horatio squeaking back in his most sonorous falsetto what a jolly good chappy old Johnny was.
Dead? Conservatives?
Nah, they just smell that way! LOL
Re my 101: That should be Kathleen Sebelius, highly respected Democratic governopr of a red state.
Kirri-
you must be kidding! Thank God I missed it – only so much delusional nonsense can be stomached in one day, and the Hillary crew are providing it in buckets.
Ok, a few things
1. HRC has lost (I thought I’d get that out of the way first)
2. George McGovern was not from the NE (neither is Obama, btw) – he was from the very conservative state of South Dakota.
3. There are several good Democratic VP candidates out there, but I think the best pick for Obama would be a white, male, moderate-conservative Governor of a swing state. I say this because this would be the perfect complement to Obama’s appeal without the risk of the Democrats running a double-minority ticket.
People that spring to mind include Tim Kaine (Virginia), Tom Vilsack (former Gov. of Iowa) or Ed Rendell (Pennsylvania). I don’t think Governor Richardson would be ideal notwithstanding his great ability because of his minority status (I know I’m stereotyping, but it’s better to be safe than sorry…)
Bill Richardson would be very very tempting as a VP. The main reason not to do so (perversely enough) would be if the Dems were confident that Obama could win New Mexico without him, and wanted to find a VP from the south-eastern states.
Come to think of it, apart from any stigma as a one-time loser, why not pick John ‘crossing over’ Edwards? Too left-wing as a full package?
Got to say the Obama/Edwards combination looks pretty appealing to me, although I really don’t know anything about some of the others mentioned, so they may be good candidates. I take it the ridiculoius notion of offering Hillary the VP has been put out to pasture, -
just like she should be.
Another point worth making re: ‘why doesn’t Hillary drop out?’ is that you don’t need to spend cash to win states that you’re already ahead in by 25-30 points (Kentucky and W Virginia), so she might figure that buys her a couple of weeks in the vain hope that Howard Dean can be rubber-hosed or another 6 Jeremiah Wrights come out of the woodwork in the meantime.
The downside is that she has to keep paying her staff. If they are professionals.
A while ago, Obama had a fundraiser with a bunch of Wall Street types and was asked why they should support him when he has no experience. They wanted to know how they could find out if he was able to run the counry or not. Obama replied that he will show them how he will run the country by the way he runs his campaign. On that call I think David Plouffe should be his VP.
Yep, SimonH – too left wing as a double-act. I’m not sure Edwards carries as much weight in voterland as his reputation suggests.
Swing Lowe
I don’t know about everyone else, but my little knowledge of American politics doesn’t spread to these people. Can you give us a little outline?
Jen 108
Here’s a guide to some VP candidates i got via google
http://www.411mania.com/politics/columns/74920
Simon H, I read on Kos that because Hil is a sure thing to win West V, it would not be a good look for the Obama Presidential nomineejto loose the next primary. It would undermine his campaign straight away. So I think that Hil will hang on at least for the primaries that she was expected to win.
As for Hil for VP. Easy way for O to get POTUS but I think that Hil would undermine him at every turn. She’s saying now she’s a fighter, she won’t back down. Sure good when campaigning but it would be hell if you had to work with it every day.
Tim Kaine has been Governor of Virginia since 2005. The description of this race from Wikipedia includes this excerpt:
“While the previous Democratic Governor, Mark Warner was credited with doing especially well for a Democrat in rural areas of the commonwealth, Kaine’s win featured surprising triumphs in traditionally Republican exurbs like Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Prince William County and Loudoun County in Northern Virginia as well as impressive showings in Democratic strongholds like Richmond and Norfolk.”
He was an early supporter of Obama’s presidential bid and is term-limited (he can’t run again for Governor). He’s still quite popular in Virginia (a possible swing state), he’s white and he’s moderate (he needs to be to be a Democratic governor of Virginia).
Rendell and Vilsack are weaker candidates – Rendell is a liberal former-mayor of Philadelphia and Vilsack previously endorsed Clinton (as well as having once congratulated Canada on moving from a 20 hour day to a 24 hour day).
Richardson is probably the strongest candidate out there (Gov. of NM, former Ambassador to UN and Secretary of Energy), but his race (latino) and his close connections with the Clintons will probably count him out. If HRC had been the Democratic nominee, he probably would have been her running mate.
As for John Edwards, please PLEASE don’t go there. He was weak as a running mate in 2004, he’s only ever won one election (1998 NC Senate) and he has no governorship experience.
Whomsoever Obi chooses in the Veepstakes, let’s hope s/he’s vetted slightly more throughly than poor old Tommy Eagleton was!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Eagleton
Obama could do worse than pick a woman as running mate, it would be consistent with his renewal, move forward theme. Don’t know enough about US politics to know which one though.
thoroughly.
Sheesh, right first time
I just have one very simple question to ask. If the SDs are so confident that Obama can win in November, they can come out now put an end to this tomorrow. yes, it is that simple. They fact they have not put an end to this means they are still have doubt about Obama in November. Come on SDs, just do it.
EC# 63 Tunes & Al #66 Law precedents
Not content with 10 to one majority to an ordinary layman , Obama’s supporters quoting famed Philosophers , the words of great Authors , Poets supreme , fabled Historians , Lorded humanitarian’s words tried & true, but now another discipline , Law…. the clothed silks to boot. And oh how I dread when yous later lob at me ‘medicine’ , and Diogenes the one.
Law. Ferny lawyer & others eyes glint , a chance to strike down the barbarian finally. Al in jest , precedents are like an old car , don’t bring the same old car to Court , better a new one, or as my wife says when I quiver ‘precedent’ with baited breath , ‘that was yesterday…… today is new & now this is the precedent’. Now the year 1981 , with Reagans demolition of another ‘Democrat liberal’ by 49 States to 1 State to come in 84. A case flawed from inception the Democrat Wisconsin ‘liberals’ arguing Republicans who were non registered Democrats could vote in a Democrat primary to select delegates twho then pick a Democrat Nominee, & expecting the DNC or a Court to wear that. This time they’re all registered Democrats , all 2 .278 million so ‘rules’ , not for Repugs.
My other thought (unchecked) is the fact that Repugs were argued to be part of a Democrat Primary ehich probably partly narrowed the 1981 case to the DNC rules themselves, whilst only registered democrats involved 2.278 million enables the case to be broadened to any ‘rules’ of any organizations vs Constitutional , personal rights ,& general member rights vs the DNC’s harsh penalties & exclusion generally and the 23 Super States non penalties , beit circumstances varied.Al my memory on the case has faded except at the time it was a lesson to never forget in how to write State political “member voting” Rules. But as you no doubt already knew Al ,sometimes such an intent legal challenge statement (& is it just a bluff) serves the purpose of ‘time’ and for Hillary ‘time’ is valuable. Bet some homework is made out of this Ron effort.
Enemy Combatant #63:
“Heavenly shades of night are falling……it’s twilight time”
(William “call me Billy” Thorpe)
After mutual kegs of chardonnay truce , specifically excluding the wicked name ‘Billy Thorpe’ , a breach & ‘heavenly shades….the opening lines “Hello darkness, my old friend,” but the last lines long forgotten “the twinking ron ray it t’was. Those closest are all that matter”.
Billy Thorp , yes Billy and ‘heavenly shades’ and then I think of an apt Obama
Thorpy tune , perhaps Billy’s first “Over the Rainbow’. To think of Billy Thorp still with unique beard at Yankee stadium smooth ecstasy singing ‘Over the
Rainbow’ to the rapture 40,000 Obamaphiles with copycat beards, visualise smile
Ahhh, it seems that lawyers are also elitists just like the economists. Silly me!
???????
Ron, too much.
Bullet points.
Perleeeeeeeease!
Hey Ron, for what it’s worth, I don’t think you are the token ‘barbarian’. Just think you’re going a little nuts with the Hillary stuff. She’s lost, and scrambling about with race and elitism ain’t gonna change that. If McCain wins in November you’ll be able to give out an ‘I told you so’. But for the moment, you picked a loser. That’s all there is to it really.
Finns, 90/10 since Super Tuesday and still falling. SDs are not even showing up to the meetings Hillary is demanding anymore. You’re gonna have to let go of that dream soon too.
Also, I reckon it was a little underhanded posting your concession dance, claiming it wasn’t a concession, then stating that was all we’d get. I don’t think that is necessarily honouring the bet.
#124 Amigo, that’s all you will get. However, if Hill unleashes her nuclear strategy and obliterate Iran and Obama, at the same time, then I will do another jig to the tune of:
There is a house down in new orleans
They call the risin sun
And its been the ruin of many a poor boy
And Obama, oh god, he’s one
Thing is, the moment she steps out of line now, those SDs holding off because of some misplaced notion of loyalty (to someone who ain’t returning it to the party) will step in and call it for Obama. So she needs to ‘go nuclear’ without going nuclear. I can see a problem here…
#11 – KR – [The Finnigans - So what are you doing with your other hand? (OK, don’t tell us, we’ve known for a very long time!)] – since u asked, this what i do with my other hand and it was for you.
http://www.blog.thesietch.org/wp-content/thumb-bush_finger_flip.jpg
Happy thoughts, Finns, happy thoughts. Your bruised ego is making me think you actually believed that tripe you’ve been writing about Clinton having a hope in hell.
Come the prez election proper, McCain will use national security not only as a big club to beat Obama over the head with, but the ‘big thang’ that differentiates both candidates.
I know many here think that the Iraq war being a Republican war will be enough for Obama to insulate himself from the inevitable national security attack – and for Obamas base it will be, but Obamas base wont win him the election. For everyone else – the lunchbox brigade, the soccer moms, the hawkish blue collar voters it wont be enough because those folks dont think about national security like we do here.
Just look at how effective Clintons 3:00am ad was – we all laughed, but it gave her votes.
Obama needs a general as running mate, preferably white, preferably 4 Star.
And you know, there’s one of them floating around.
Maybe that’s what all those mentions of him were about the other night. He denies he told Hillary to withdraw but not that he was in contact. Maybe he has been approached and used the cover of NC to let her know? And he has been in the press a bit more of late.
Hey Obamaphiles, your wish has come true: “Rush Limbaugh urges vote for Obama”.Yes, Rush Limbaugh is now your friend.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/07/limbaugh.obama/?iref=hpmostpop
Poor Finns. Have a trackback to #25.
Possum @ 129,
Are you talking about Wesley Clark? What has he been doing for the past 4 years?
And are there any alternatives to Clark?
SL – he’s been neckdeep in Democratic politics. He has his own lobby group and was very present during the last midterms.
Possum,
I think that ticks a lot of boxes there. He’s got a significant national security and military persona around him that could really settle the blue collar voters. If Obama could get him to defect from the HRC campaign (which would have to be handled very carefully and timed perfectly so as not to upset Clinton supporters) that would be a major coup. You’ve sold me Poss.
#129 – [and for Obamas base it will be, but Obamas base wont win him the election] – Poss, you cannot be SERIOUS. Someone used to yell this at some tennis match “You cannot be SERIOUS”. We have been told repeatedly by the Obama experts here that he doesn’t need white working, middle class, women, hispanic, asian votes.
I was thinking Wesley Clark a while ago but am a bit worried that a General might look too elitist in the current electoral climate. One thing that Obama has to do is stop being so reverential of McCain’s war service and start planting the seed about McCain being the Admiral’s son who went hotdogging in his jet and ended up in Uncle Ho’s hands, singing like a canary.
Clark is a Rhodes scholar you know, too much edumacation. This bit from Wikipedia contrasts well with the surrender monkey though.
“Clark was then given command of A Company, 1st Battalion, 16th Infantry of the 1st Infantry Division in January 1970. In February, only one month into his command, he was shot four times by a Viet Cong soldier with an AK-47. The wounded Clark shouted orders to his men, who counterattacked and defeated the Viet Cong force. Clark had injuries to his right shoulder, right hand, right hip, and right leg, and was sent to Valley Forge Army Hospital in Phoenixville, Pennsylvania to recuperate. He was awarded the Silver Star for his actions during the encounter.”
Clarke’s problem is as TW points out – an elitist look for the nomination as a whole. He’s also more a northern Democrat than his Little Rock roots would ordinarily convey. But that’s probably an easier issue to manage than letting McCain pound Obama on national security with some Defense lightweight Governor in the role as Veep.
If they got Clarke on board -national security as an issue could be pinched right from under the noses of the Republicans, changing the narrative from “no experience” that McCain would be trying to push onto the Dems, into the “Iraq is a Republican war” narrative. It allows all sorts of threads, from dealing with Iran to the high price of gasoline to all be used as baseball bat issues to pound the Republicans specifically (good for the Congress and Senate contests) and McCain generally.
And choosing a Clintonite like Clarke would be a big step towards healing and unifying the broader party.
Also – does anyone know if it’s true that Clarke told Clinton yesterday that the jig is up?
PC at 129: “Come the prez election proper, McCain will use national security not only as a big club to beat Obama over the head with, but the ‘big thang’ that differentiates both candidates.”
Not only that, Possum, McBombster has cojones grandes. And he cut his teeth on a branding iron too!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RGWakF5XgYM&eurl=http://www.crooksandliars.com/
Obi and Wes it is then.
He’s denied it publicly, but all sorts of sources were hinting. Something happened.
Another couple of potentials not mentioned yet would be Joe Biden and Chuck Hagel. Each have their cons – Biden is a bigmouth and Hagel a Republican, but they are both white, respected, statesmanlike, and saleable on security.
General Shinseki would be poetic irony! But not whitebread, alas.
There’s been a long string of defections from the hardline Bush foreign policy fiasco so no shortage of reputable metal wearing dudes of the right ethnicity to choose from.
With over 60% of Americans wanting the war to end, I’m not sure that McCain is going to find yet another re-run of ‘fight them over there’ is going to fly.
Fool me once…
That link’s brilliant Ecky!
Until the thought occurs that, you know, it aint that far from the truth when McCain starts getting all cranky pants.
Jen at 74
Just looking at the rumours circulating (i.e. unconfirmed content), it appears that there is a plan with the Obama Campaign to build a block of about 30 or more super delegates to come out together. This makes sense since because of block of 33 would move Obama to the majority of the total number of pledged delegates – and that is a tripping point. In effect, once Obama reaches the majority there is an undeniable message that remaining undecided supers can give to their respective constituents – “he has majority, she cannot win, game over, my endorsement is an endorsement for the party”. According to news (mainly from non-US sources) this could happen in the next 48-72 hours.
Zogby floats the “30 SD’s about to break for Obama” line. We’ve heard this before and it didn’t happen then. But…perhaps…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7387919.stm
Also, gotta love a graph. This one’s a beauty. Puts pastorgate and bittergate in their correct perspective.
http://img396.imageshack.us/img396/4884/biggraph2ol5.jpg
Thanks Catrina – i’ve got a feeling in my waters,as they say. Holding off too much longer is just totally destructive for the party, and if they do it as a block she can’t kneecap all of them at once.
145
Robert Bollard
Is that called a ‘tracking graph’? Coz her line just tracks his, but well below!
Poss – Fallons is doing nothing at the moment. Not a declared democrat, but neither was Clark until 2003.
145 – That’s like predicting rain. You know it is going to happen, so not sure when…..
‘Bet some homework is made out of this Ron effort.’ Not really, just waiting for the…
“Thinkskin Manifesto” please ron/Ron.
Mr Bollard, the bus eh, on under & now magic…puff
Poss H needs a general like a ‘whole’ in the head, female governor perhaps?
PC at 139: “Also – does anyone know if it’s true that Clarke told Clinton yesterday that the jig is up?”
First the “scoop”, then the “denial”. Hard to say for sure, Poss.
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/breaking-wesley-clark-reportedly-called.html
CT number 2!
Billary is hangin in there to put the pressure on to be O’s VP.
When she is guaranteed that they will go to the elections as team Obi/Billary in November she will concede. They will convincingly win for the Dems.
Obi is POTUS.
Sometime later something mysterious will happen to Obi like what happened to all those persons in Diogenes link a couple of threads back.
The VP then automatically steps up to the plate like LBJ after JFK and whale oil beef hooked , Billary has got what she was chasing, The POTUS.
152 Gaffhook
That is 99.99% ridiculous
no hang on
It is 99.99& credible
no hang on
…………………….
Gaffhook
that is so awful and yet so realistic.
Hope they tell her to Eff Off after the damage she is trying to cause.
(btw
thanks for the fab cheeseburger tip!)
time for bed codge
1111
HarryH Says:
May 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Hillary will concede tomorrow…and no i don’t want any wine.
Just provving i’m moore elite than youse is enogh.
Oh dear HarrydH.
Better to keep quiet and be thought a fool than open your mouth and remove all doubt.
129
Possum Comitatus
Come the prez election proper, McCain will use national security not only as a big club to beat Obama over the head with, but the ‘big thang’ that differentiates both candidates.
i don’t know about that. obama has a lot of people in his campaign from whem america had international prestige (liberal hawks, democrat neocons) it might be a harder sell, especially as most americans link their current economic woes to the ‘war on terror’ and bush’s mismanagement of the same, rightly or wrongly.
mccain’s biggest problem against obama will be brand differentiation from bush, a problem he won’t have against clinton, whom he’d flog at a canter. with obama, mccain just looks old and tired. can you imagine the debates? mccain getting angry and senile, insisting that america should just keep the faith with bush’s policies, obama making placating noises and whispering to audience that as soon as gramps has his meds, we’ll talk. it’ll be a slaughter.
on a tangent, has anyone noticed that hillary’s monomania regarding the nomination is only rivalled by that of her fans? it’s like a weird death cult, or like those jap soldiers who ‘kept fighting’ till the 80s after wwii. and no, i’m not an obama fan either. i think his supporters who think he’ll take them to camelot are deluding themselves.
157
gam
Who needs Obama to take the US to Camelot?
Just out of Iraq would be a bloody huge improvement, let alone some rational foreign policy and a concerted effort to renewables.
That would do me, plus the enormous advantage of having a POTUS that can construct cogent thoughts into meaningful language. (Ron: take note!)
gam @ 157
“i think his supporters who think he’ll take them to camelot are deluding themselves.”
Agreed gam . I don’t want camelot – just a slightly more sophisticated and intelligent approach than what we have now. Not Utopia, just not insanity.
Kirri-
I am becoming more sure that Ron Is GWB having a shot at blogging.
If he thinks he can just glide to the White House on the Black votes, he will be sadly mistaken. he still has to earn the white middle and working class votes. In NC, Obama won 56-42 and the Black vote was (90% of half the registered Democratic vote there) 45%. So if you take away the Black votes, he won only 11%. So much for a big win.
So far Obama has had a dream run from everyone with Hillary taking all the sniper shots from all sides. If one ass-u-me-s (like making an ass of u and me) that Obama is the nominee. The honeymoon will be over. I dont think he really knows what will hit him. The key question of “who is Obama?” has not been fully answered and it will be asked forensically. He will not have any place to hide.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_flawed_or_fantastic.html
158
Kirribilli Removals Says:
Just out of Iraq would be a bloody huge improvement, let alone some rational foreign policy and a concerted effort to renewables.
ah, but are you so sure that he will do that? is there a timeline? is it a complete withdrawal? remember, our token contribution to the iraq adventure isn’t over yet and we elected a guy who promised he’d end it. i think that obama’s position on iraq is far more nuanced and has much more wriggle room than is portrayed. especially when his campaign is full of democrats who share neocon beliefs.
i’m not saying obama won’t be better than bush or mccain, i’m just saying that our idea of ending the iraq war and the more hawkish american voter’s idea of ending the war might not coincide. though i have a sneaking suspicion that what a lot of the left side of politics wants is a return to destroying countries with high explosives for the loftiest humanitarian ends, like how it was in the clinton administration.
i’m being a boring cynic, at the very least we can agree that short of destroying the democrats for a generation, hillary is toast and that’s good news. obama presents the possibility of a pleasant surprise as opposed to the depressing certainty of clinton.
156
oooo look at Ol Yella trying to win a flame war.
you’re a tiresome dood aren’t ya.
oh and finnigans, indiana is 90% white and obama thrashed hillary there. better yet her less than convincing win in nc suggests that she has trouble winning her own ‘white middle and working class votes’. i’m not sure what point you were trying to make but you’ve scored a bit of a statistical own goal.
Finns @ 161 [" So if you take away the Black votes, he won only 11%. So much for a big win."]
Yeah – big mistake giving them uppity niggas the vote via the Fifteenth Amendment wasn’t it?. In 1870 I believe. What could they have been thinking??
Maybe you should email the Clinton camp with this new strategy of not counting the black vote. Brilliant.
Still having trouble with facts I see Finns. Let me help:
The black vote in NC was 34%, and Obama carried this 91-7.
The white vote was 62% and Clinton won this 61-37.
The all important white male vote you have been telling us about, Clinton won 55-42.
The only group she definitely carried was white women, the Democratic bread and butter.
All numbers from: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#NCDEM
Pancho #124
Perhaps yous guys list my blog #121 should inc’ude Psychology, Economists the but if and maybe set , and Psephology . No , guys & gals , Hillary is not beaten yet , show me 2209 delegates for Obama , no he’s well short & Hilary can win beit a little tougher , she’s got ‘ticker, better heathcare & other policys & is more electable
Pancho: “Hey Ron, for what it’s worth, I don’t think you are the token ‘barbarian’ “
Pancho, you added ‘token’ , a deft double thought touch. Perhaps bloggoshere words go astray.
As for ‘scrambling about with race’ , Obama made race an issue himself not me. The Wright made race a bigger issue & Obama compounded it by making the Philly speech all about race. I didn’t. For the last 2 weeks US media has been dominated by Wright & the race issue.The SD’s weren’t & aren’t unaware of this race issue nor the ‘black’ voters historic expectations. Bet most have been the maths & know how close Obama Nomineeship is. The message from Team Obama to SD’s (who know all this) know Obama has made ‘race’ (via Philly) a core issue, know he’s ‘black’, and MOST IMPORTANT know he’s a ‘black’ delegate leader with a small 2% lead. And a potential historic ‘black’ Nominee with a massive ‘black’ vote, claimed who will forever desert the Party if he’s not made Nominee. vs a ‘white’Hillry BEHIND by 2% delegates arguing ‘electability’. I suggest this has been happening for 10 weeks & this race pressure has built as the Media race news has continued & accounts for part of the huge SD switch to Obama (but without Obama’s delegate lead this pressure would counted for zero)
I think the above SD situation is completely wrong not because of race but because the reason is based on a delegate lead (with race supporting that argument but its not the argument itself) rather than SD ‘s deciding on electability. I suggest this an evitability of a ‘black’ candidate whose delegate numbers were running throughout as a tie & stronger still as Obama is 2% in front.
My profound disagreement with Obama supporters has never been stated based he is ‘black’ but because (apart from Policys) because on the stats show he is less electable on demographic blocks etc which Hillary has built up (not because she is white). Obama supporters on the other hand argue the delegate winner must be Nominee fullstop. I say if in 2012 , one candidate (less electable) wins the delegate race overwhelmingly based on massive ‘red’ State wins (but for a POTUS race those wins are Democrat unwinnable) , you guys must say (based on Obama lead argument) he must be the Nominee even though the whole Party would know he’d lose in a landslide. So I think electability must be the critical factor & yous do not & think delegate lead is the only determinant.
The Democrat Party should unambiguously say either way. In 2008 I think ‘electability seems not a factor, but race pressure including ex the Media is a supporting factor for the delegate leader to get SD endorsements
Finally on race , racial equality requires it be confronted frankly , so if POTUS level positions are not earned on merit, but rather on/consequence of past racial inequality or by affirmative action, then you gut the whole principle of racial equality (assuming the opponents have ‘ total’equal opportunity to compete)
Aide for another bloger, Obama is a N E “liberal Democrat’ (its a philosophy/principles based) so whether he comes from Wisconsin is irrelevant. He’s also an ‘elitist’ (it’s a state of mind) , acknowledged even by my “friend” Diogenes , with scalpel in hand awaiting me, with smile
#164 – [oh and finnigans, indiana is 90% white and obama thrashed hillary there} – pls tell me who won Indiana?
You sound like a Ron Paul nut. She’s done.
And let’s not forget that just because a majority in these groups PREFERRED Hillary, it does not mean that they do not like Obama.
T-O-A-S-T.
Amigo, own goal? let me help.
According to your own stats in #166. the only demographic Obama won was the Black votes. All the others, white, white male, women were won by hillary. Are you still telling me that the Black votes did not carry Obama?
* The black vote in NC was 34%, and Obama carried this 91-7.
* The white vote was 62% and Clinton won this 61-37.
* The all important white male vote you have been telling us about, Clinton won 55-42.
* The only group she definitely carried was white women, the Democratic bread and butter.
Noocat, also worth noting that these numbers are further improvements on how Obama has been doing with these groups over the whole season. And white women will vote Obama over McCain overwhelmingly.
OK, playing devils’ advocate, here is a theory:
Hillary says she will continue until a nominee has been decided. Maybe Hillary is hinting at remaining SDs to actually declare their support for Obama and finish this thing off. Maybe she wants to leave now, but can’t do it in fear of looking like a quitter.
Play Obama Veepstakes on Salon:
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/05/08/veepstakes_obama/index.html
…and see how your choice compares to the other contestant’s
Sorry Finns, unsurprisingly, you are wrong again.
1. This entire segment that you posted @161
Is demonstrably false, as indicated by the figures @166.
2. For all the talk of the elitism and working class deserting Obama, his share of the white male vote is now over 40% and rising each contest.
3. As Obama wins the black vote, Clinton wins women. That is it. That is her base. And women vote Democratic. So no great conspiracies and losses here.
#170 – [And let’s not forget that just because a majority in these groups PREFERRED Hillary, it does not mean that they do not like Obama] – Noocat, just love your new definition of voting intention. Yep, they never really intent to vote for Hillary. Yep, just PREFFERED her maybe for her dress? or It was the fault of their silly hand picking the wrong box.
He still has to win the White Blue collar? Is 49% of a blue collar state not extremely close to 51%?
The blue collar voter arguement would be a stronger if it wasn’t the coming in support of Hillary (who would be getting the same case made against her against anyone else).
Not a bad overview in the Washington Post of how the Clinton bunker is looking at things – that’s assuming if a chook running around with its head cut off can look at things.
Finns
It is not surprising that white,blue collar Democrats would prefer Hillary to Obama.
This does not mean they do not like Obama. It just means they would prefer Hillary.
To say these people will prefer Republican John McCain to Obama is a completely different matter.
Democrats will vote Democrat after 8 years of G.W. Bush and the Republicans.
It is the Republican voters who are doing the defecting.
Amigo, stick to the point, the Black votes carried Obama in NC, period.
Harryd’ H
Just the facts.
You are now a proven premature ejaculator. How sad for you.
Jen – speaking of bread exposed to dry heat – have a look at the headline in the Post. They’ve ripped off your line!
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10177.html
Finns sweetie-
if there are more black people there it stands to reason that their vote will carry whomever they vote for.
#182 GG – [You are now a proven premature ejaculator. How sad for you] Classic. It was Neville Wran who said you have to feel it coming on, election.
#184 – jen – [Finns sweetie?] – As Neville Wran said you have to feel it coming on, election.
I love the first line from the Politico article linked in 183:
No that is not the point Finns. Of course the black vote carried Obama in NC. That is not in question, nor was it ever. I could have told you a year ago that the black vote was going to carry Obama in NC. Your point is that without this he has nothing. That is wrong. Collecting over 40% of the white male vote in a Southern state, along with the black vote, is what a Democrat aims for. Women vote Democratic as well. So I don’t see what your point proves other than you aren’t doing your maths (or history) well at the moment. Or maybe that you’re just still smarting over Hillary’s loss.
Hey JV-
think I”ll start taking out copyright -Clampetts, Toast, HillBilly’s – This could start being lucrative. Nice to see more evidence that PB is out there having an influence.
although surely not as big an impact as Ron’s “Obamabots”…
btw- did yuu see the link Gaffhook sent me so that I could send you (or oyur son) a cheeseburger?
If not I’ll try and find it ,but thought it was quite sweet of him.
Ron
“For the last 2 weeks US media has been dominated by Wright & the race issue”
yep, and Clinton sqeaked IA in a rust belt state with lots of ‘her kind of people’.
Obama did not get flogged in IA, but Hillary did in NC.
The Wright stuff is the wrong stuff to attack him with because he is living proof that he neither acts that way, nor behaves that way.
But you’re welcome to keep pointing this out, as it only proves that bigots and dullards would buy it as any kind of critique on what this guy stands for. It’s grubby garbage for the rightwing machine to chuck but it’s not sticking.
GG – It would seem that Harry picked the wrong endpoint, but you got on the wrong horse.
whoops- YOUR son.
182
Sad
Make that ‘neither speaks that way, nor acts that way’
Harry, your point is being made in lots of articles about the general ie the Hillary crew will then be deciding between a bellicose cadaver and a thinking, vigourous statesman who’s proven he can connect with people.
GG keep it up, (if you can), and you’ll feel an ‘edict’ coming on!
Isn’t the whole point that it would be a travesty to have a candidate who won by appealing to bigotry and fear and ignorance, seeing as we have all been subjected to this for the past decade or more, both in the US and here. So any candidate who tries to gain office by using this strategy is simply repeating the very tactics that we all seem to so desperately want to move on from. Including Hillary’s supporters (otherwise you would be GOP supporters). But she has let you all down by proving that all that matters to her is her own power, and she will willingly appeal to racism and bigotry to get there.
Alley cat.
Jen – What is it – a cryovac big-mac pack? If it doesn’t exist, it should!
jv-
better- cheeseburger in a tin.
Pancho,
It is pretty clear which endpoint Harryd’H is picking.
Pancho
#169
who were you referring to
jv- found it:
Enjoy!!
http://www.gizmag.com/the-canned-cheeseburger–fast-food-in-the-wilderness/8713/
Quite so, KR @ 194. GG: no more knob jokes for the evening please.
Might be time for our ‘good ol’ boys’ to let the pastor thing go …
“Evidence scant that Wright hurt Obama much in Ind., N.C.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_WEATHERING_WRIGHT?SITE=INEVA&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
Some history, some AA, and something to think about:
Very often, political observers groan at the mere mention of post-campaign unity negotiations. Thoughts travel back to the “What Does Jesse Want?” questions during the Democratic presidential primary summer of 1988. It turned out that what Jesse Jackson wanted in order to end his quest for the nomination was a proportional representation primary system that would give him or another African-American a chance of winning a race in the future. Obama supporters should thank Jackson for playing those cards.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/08/deal/
199
Pastor Wright or the sleeping classisfied, I’d guess. Or maybe the Generals.
Hey- just a thought , but being the All-American Gal, I betcha Hills takes a tinned cheeseburger out with her or her shootin’ expeditions, before she knocks back a fewe bourbons at the bar with her fellow hunters. That, of course, is only if she has time when she’s not saving Bosnia, bringing peace to the middle east and disarming the IRA. Nothing like fast food when the heat is on.
200 Jen
Gosh that dinner is looking quite easy to arrange after all. I see that the company “develops specialist ready-meals for the outdoor, expedition and extreme athlete markets. ” I haven’t noticed the tinned burgers at the ocean swims I do from time to time, but I guess my athleticism isn’t extreme enough, like dodging sniper fire or something would be
“However beautiful the strategy one should occasionally look at the results” (Winston Churchill)
Do you think someone should email the great man’s advice to Team Hillary?
Jen
No doubt you will get hungry blogging later through the night so here’s another one.
http://www.gizmag.com/the-canned-cheeseburger–fast-food-in-the-wilderness/8713/
Strong late night bloggers need good nutritional food.
Billary carries a jet load of them to keep up her losing stamina.
Every time she smiles at the cameras i can see the tin hanging out of her choppers.
Maybe she can have toasted cheeseburghers!
They won’t run this in the MSM:
Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahiri has declared that he is actually on McCain’s side in wanting to destroy Iran. Al-Zawahiri is hurt that McCain keeps confusing hyper-Sunni al-Qaeda with radical Shiism: “Ayman al-Zawahiri said al-Qaeda wants to see the destruction of Iran – a Shiite nation battling the terrorists . . . “The dispute between America and Iran is a genuine struggle, and the possibility of the US striking Iran is real,” al-Zawahiri said. . .” Al-Zawahiri hopes that the US struggle with Iran will destroy the latter and weaken the former, putting al-Qaeda in a position to administer the coup de grace.
In essence, al-Zawahiri is endorsing McCain’s plan to “bomb, bomb, bomb/ bomb, bomb Iran.”
juan cole
…kind of ironic, really.
From ABC News:
Edwards’ Campaign Manager to Endorse Obama
May 08, 2008 6:45 AM
ABC News has learned that David Bonior, the campaign manager for the 2008 presidential race of Sen. John Edwards, D-NC, will endorse Sen. Barack Obama, D-Illinois, today.
Bonior, a former Michigan congressman, was once the second highest ranking Democrat in the House, and is influential with labor unions.
Tuesday night’s results were said to be key to Bonior’s decision — specifically the fact that Obama’s lead over Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-NY, appears insurmountable.
Bonior is also said to like Obama’s general positive tone, as well as Obama’s message of change and stance against taking money from federal lobbyists.
Edwards has not yet endorsed either candidate
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/edwards-campaig.html
GG: no more knob jokes for the evening please
Rise to the challenge horse, mount these montebanks, I know you can do it.
But what now for the ‘gal’, VP ins outs ups & downs; & Poss’s ‘generals’; and what of the zimmer’s war on ‘evil’…or do we just keep on laughing?
Did any Faux News watchers last night see the cream get added to Hillary’s shit sandwich of a day yesterday?
After stumping for her for the last month, in order to keep the race going,they were openly laughing in her face.
They were giggling how she tried to use O’Reilly to spread her message but looks like it blew up in her face.
Then the coup d’etat was Sean Hannitty proudly outing Hillary’s camp as the source of the Wright tapes and narratives to use. He and the Republican strategist had a right old giggle.
“Who’d have thought Sean Hannitty and Hillary Clinton teaming up on strategy” Hannitty cackled.
Then they started moaning about just why their shit throwing won’t stick on this damn black muslim guy.
Ferny ‘Do you think someone should email the great man’s advice to Team Hillary?’ Didn’t ron/Ron address that last night?
We have the ‘H’ word making an appearance in the campaign. Is this the first ‘hubris” of Spring? :
“Obama’s Got a Confident New Strategy”
“Confident that he has built a near-impregnable lead, his campaign aides said Wednesday that Obama would begin shifting his focus toward the general election. …
“Clinton’s campaign cast Obama’s strategy as a show of hubris.”
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-obama8-2008may08,0,6306550.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel
jen – And here’s that cream I promised, and you mocked me over. (boom boom)
http://ccinsider.comedycentral.com/photos/uncategorized/americonedream.jpg
Good evening all
Please allow me a moment.
It’s going to be a fun last month of primaries. I haven’t really liked Hillary for a long time – had the motto ‘anyone but Hillary’ long before I understood how the primary system actually worked – and I am looking forward to the last foundations of the Clinton dynasty slowly crumble to the ground.
Bill was a good president. Hillary a decent senator, and will probably make a good majority leader one day. But she will not be the next President of the United States. And for that I am glad.
My tip is that she will pull out of the race on June 3, with a ‘unite the country’ speech. May 20 is her D-Day, but not the final death knell. She still may take the Huckabee route – stay in until he gets 2025 – but I sense that’s unlikely, the situations are completely different.
I suppose the question now turns to the following question: has the long primary season helped or hindered Obama? It certainly helped McCain, no disputing that. But there are pros and cons for Obama – yes it has hardened a few voters, and given the GOP a lot of fuel… but it has also given him a distraction to hide behind. How would Wright have played if there was no impending primary to focus on? He could have been completely destroyed before summer began, because the media would have had nothing better to do.
Impossible to analyse really. But I have no doubt the media will try.
Ferny-
C-A-R-B-O-N.
How much longer will they let this thing drag out?
I liked Noocat’s theory that Hills is just doing this for the sake of the party, but that would take some kind of ethical bone in her body, so that theory is immediately disproved .
Max-
one theory is that as difficult as it has been for Obama he has shown resilience and consistency: he hasn’t thrown nearly as much sh*t as he could have as the Gal is actually a member of the same party. Although she seems to have forgotten this .
However the gloves will be off with McCain I suspect. Not that Obi will play dirty – not his style, but he will have the backing of the entire party ,(apart from Billary and Chelsea), and they will bring out the big guns on Bomb-Bomb. This race hasn’t started yet, but it looks like it’s about to…
Just checking odds for West Virigina on betfair and they have started markets where you can bet on the margin. Cool. No action as yet but might be interesting.
Jv-
wouldn’t it get all runny?
FINNS & Pancho
FINNS “If he thinks he can just glide to the White House on the Black votes, he will be sadly mistaken”
Pancho avoided acknowledging this basic point you made which ws the substance of your blog. Instread he concentrated on minor mathematics rather than the above main point you made.
The mathematical point Pancho also snuck around was that approx Obama
needed a minimum 72% of the ‘black vote to tie with Hillary in NC !
Furthermore Pancho not only bypassed your substance to maths because he knows Obama needed min. 72% blacks to tie in NC , but he also avoided the fact there were a large 34% of black voters in NC ( and just to tie with Hillary with 72% black support) whereas Nationally the black vote is only about 10% which would have destroyed his argument. And made yours , ie. black votes may have won the Nominee between Democrat faithful but its insufficent by a long way to win POTUS
PANCHO: you said either FINNS or me was a ‘nut’, a barb at #169
but you did not who was a ‘nut’.
At #199 , I asked you who you were referring to
I (and I’m sure FINNS) don’t mind you thowing ‘nut’ barbs , but you should have the courage to say who they’re directed at, so you can get return fire , rather than you waiting for one of us to fire back & then you saying , oh not you, I meant the other , or don’t throw them
Hillary has vowed to remain in the race “until there is a nominee.”
If I were an unaligned SD, on hearing that I’d be inclined to create that situation forthwith, of which she speaks so blithely.
Jen – [wouldn’t it get all runny?] Just be really really careful. The instructions are:
Work hands gently around the outside, subtly caressing open with soft rhythmic upward motion, working with index fingers and thumbs to gain entry and reach the richness within …
please dispose of package thoughtfully.
The concession contest is currently between :
Pancho (8 May) and Ferny (3 June). The mid-point is 21 May, I think. Interesting. I’d favour Pancho at present.
No sneaking here! I backed a winner an the numbers are there in black and white
. No amount of racist slime you seem unable to control will change that. Nor does tinkering at the edges. You lost. Bad tipping, and your credibility crumbles further with each silly ‘blog’. Oh, and you sound like a Ron Paul nut.
jv – I don’t like my odds. Were we tipping again I’d take either 3 June.
Jen – I don’t like them odds either. I think we can safely assume that our role in the contest is now merely as donors.
You think she’ll try to hang on until the last primaries? Maybe, but I think others might have other ideas, and a coalescence of supers around Barack in the next few days might see her head tossed into the bloody basket to join her arms and legs.
Ron has a blog?
See, this is what happens when I fall out of the loop
Just some terminology issues you need to catch up on Max. What’s posted @220 is a ‘blog’. I can give you nothing further, but the source might.
Jen – The HRC campaign seems to support your view on Hills’ political corpse remaining on public display for a while:
Pancho
#223
like the elitist ideas you cringe behind lacking the courage to state your real opinions until you were sure your phoney man had won. But your racism slime you seemlessly try to hide in articles has always been obvious to those experienced in seeing your Intellectual arguments dressed up really to hide a racist base
Following up on a story from yesterday:
“LANSING — Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.”
http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080507/NEWS15/80507111
Good point Max @ 215 ‘How would Wright have played if there was no impending primary to focus on?’
As it did, & as it will…in Nov. My aunty her b*lls & wanting to be called uncle.
I’d caution that zimmer mcsame has effectively benefited from any of this. Yet.
If the gates open on the Melb Cup & bugger me gently only two jump, I still think your going to plonk for one or the other. H seems to have crowbared a lot of plonkers; and when you add in the willy wonkers from the Silly Willy Hiily sideshow,…it looks like
plonkers + willy wonkers have zimmer for dinner…
Oh & 226
‘blog’ never sure about the l but my ’snatch’ strap (sit down KR & EC) pulls him out frequently, gratis of course.
FINNS
FINNS #161
“If he thinks he can just glide to the White House on the Black votes, he will be sadly mistaken”
What upset the Obamabots was the absolute accuracy of your comment.
Which is why they atacked your maths , cause your point was unassailable
When I posted #220 , showing Pancho’s amths were deceptively based and mahematically false , the elitist view ego took over because they hate to be proven wrong so demonstrably and publicly. But he was proven not only so wrong but also had tried to cover his mathematical argument flaw talking to you
Kirri, did the Obi veepstakes you linked to and came up with the Salon “hivemind” quinella. Ie, 1/ Jim Webb, 2/ Wes Clark.
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2008/05/08/veepstakes_obama/index.html
More I think about it, the more I like Webb for VP. He knocked off that racist schmuck, George “macaca” Allen by a whisker in the 2006 Va Senate race. He also stood up to The Imbecile at a White House glad handle when no one had dared speak to B43 in such a manner on such hallowed turf. This earns him major league brownie points in my book, because almost everyone who had dallied within spitting distance of The Imbecile since SCOTUS gifted him presidency in 2000, kow-towed, gushed or grovelled.
“Terse exchange with President Bush
On November 28, 2006, at a White House reception for those newly elected to Congress, Webb declined to stand in the line to have his picture taken with the president, whom Webb often criticized during the campaign. The president approached Webb later and asked him, “How’s your boy?”, referring to Webb’s son, a Marine serving in Iraq. According to Congressman Jim Moran of Virginia, aides warned the President to be “extra sensitive about talking to Webb about his son, since Webb’s son has had a recent brush with death in Iraq.”[26] Webb replied “I’d like to get them out of Iraq, Mr. President.” Bush responded, “That’s not what I asked you. How’s your boy?” Webb responded, “That’s between me and my boy, Mr. President.” Webb was so angered by the exchange that he was reportedly tempted to “slug” the president and later remarked, “I’m not particularly interested in having a picture of me and George W. Bush on my wall.”[27][28]”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jim_Webb
Webb would appeal bigtime to Joe and Jane Six-pak as well as “working military families” and folk of European descent who, through adverse economic circumstances are compelled to reside in trailer parks.
The Dems need to nail these demographics to put their POTUS quest beyond doubt. Webb is a junior senator like Obi, and like BHO, Webb’s CV is impressive. Rover’s swiftboaters would try to smear an Obi/Webb ticket as the Sep equivalent of L-platers, however, the whole Obi push is about “Change”, and on that score alone, reckon this charismatic duo have serious vote magnet potential.
After Bush/Cheney ffs, Obama/Webb would be an extremely electable ticket come November.
227
Pancho
That’s with a silent “L” I am presuming?
Ferny @ 230 [Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59]
I see Obama has agreed to the proposal, although he was previously suggesting a 50/50 split.
Such a move now also seems in Obama’s longer-temr interests as he could then better get the Dems Michigan campaign going for the general election.
Ron at 232
Pancho’s mahematically false amths?
Hey EC – I got Webb and Clark too.
KR – there are many more silent letters implied. Unfortunately they would sail both over heads and straight into moderation methinks.
It’s all about the mahematics Catrina.
The mood, the temperature…
‘Die, Beast, Die’
http://agonist.org/sean_paul_kelley/20080507/die_beast_die#comment
1st comment ‘When I first saw your subject header I thought this was going to be a post about the Clinton campaign.’
Seasoned noseclippers may enjoy the next post down.
& this a zimmer primer
‘Reporter wants to get out and see the country outside of the Green Zone. Hauser sets her up with a local film crew. She discovers a DVD case (premade) for Yonica’s XXX rated wedding night video. She exposes Yonica and her husband on CNN.’
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0884224/synopsis
Pancho – I want to see your amths!
#232 – Ron, not a religious person but this seems rather appropriate: “Father, forgive them, they know not what they do.” – Luke, Chapter 23
233
Enemy Combatant
Maybe he’s a good balance to McCain, as you’ve argued, but I’m not sure that Obama doesn’t need someone with a better known ‘brand’. Poss’s suggestion of military makes enormous sense, since they’ve got to undercut McCain’s ’strength’ on this.
Did you read the other link? About the backroom deals after Hillary concedes? She’ll get veto rights on VP almost for sure, so Clarke will be ‘her’ man, but Richardson would most definitely not be (unless Judas is an OK title for VP! LOL).
Look, if the rest of the world voted, Obi would be POTUS in a microsecond. Pity they have to arrive at the same result in such a protacted and wasteful way, huh?
#240 – A conga line of suckholes is not a place you want to be.
236
Catrina
mahem?
More like mayhem! LOL
You see, there are things there that stimulate the mind!
I think I’m blushing!
FINNS
#241
Thanks mate. Your Statement in #161 was psephologically 100% accurate
My maths in #220 were accurate , but you do remember how you were sanctimoniously attacked by Pancho where he said YOU could not add up.
He couldn’t !
Now the little elitist dears are sulking at your original accuracy
Hey Ecky, maybe Obama does need to be a uniter and pick for VP someone who may espouse more conservative positions:
Stephen Colbert!
(And someone who’s given Bush the ‘bird’ in a big way! LOL)
“Seasoned noseclippers may enjoy the next post down.”
Dunno where you pull’ em from codger, but by christ you make me laugh:)
“Hey EC – I got Webb and Clark too.”
Great hiveminds buzz alike, Pancho.
And here’s a zeitgeist zapping contribution from Uncle Brent as the percale sandwich beckons irresistibly. Bon soir, bludgers.
http://consortiumnews.com/2008/050708a.html
#246, Ron, Pancho is upset with me because i have delivered my part of the bet even though i have not lost and way before i have lost. Like a little boy, he got greedy and wants more. Like a little boy, i told him he cannot have more. So he is still sulking in the corner and doesn’t want to come and play anymore.
Finns @ 241
“Father, forgive them, they know not what they do.” – Luke, Chapter 23
Wanna bet Codger Chapter 1
From Time, the five big mistakes of the Clinton campaign – couldn’t run a chook raffle, let alone the world’s largest nuclear arsenal:
#250, i do not bet on religion.
EC @ 248 That Brent speaks well, and it’s all true.
FINNS
#249
“So he is still sulking in the corner and doesn’t want to come and play anymore”
they are alittle precious FINNS , and you actaually telling him anything would have ruffled. But then you’ve done worse in the middle of the mutual admiration society evening , you come along in #161 and bring them face to face with the voter reality that Obama has an electability problem.
Reality is difficult to see from the ivory tower but you put in front of petals
yep JV- she is one scary and completely deluded woman.
What is great is that the average voter has worked it out for themselves (shame about some of the die-hards here).
As for your instructions re: managing the ice -cream ,… I’m just off to bed for a little lie down.
Finns@250
you might as well. You clearly have a penchant for other fairytales.
Yep, KR, if Brustusina negotiates veep veto power, she’ll certainly give it to Clark, before Webb.
If Axelrod, I’d deal vvp to her only if she drops off straight after Oregon.
One of the things I enjoy about Bludgerdom is that we can all be West Wing wannabes without having to feel goofy about it! Night.
#256 – you are my fairytale
See ya Ecky.
There once was a Kid named Obama
Who was thought to have very good karma
When the hillbillies blustered
He didn’t get flustered
Obama the charmer with karma
#260, yes we know that Obama has more positions on the Pastor than the Kama Sutra
254
Ron
“Obama has an electability problem”
No Ron, you have a reality problem.
Obama is already winning this race, and that’s because he’s able to.
Hillary thought she could, but she cannot.
You just refuse to believe that you could be wrong, about anything.
You are.
Move on.
FINNS
#258
256 – ‘you are my fairytale’. There are some sulking tulips that would feel left out by you singling out only one for fairytale attention
Apres , ‘karma’ Is tha the same as bu….sh.t
Yes, Jen, there are a few die-hards here, and I’m sure they will approve of Hillary’s latest no-holds-barred tactic in trying to secure the nomination:
http://theblacksentinel.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/racism2.jpg
Jen- Re the instructions – you could practice with a knee massager for when the icecream arrives perhaps.
Oh Finns- you are such a sweet and loveable and (sadly deluded) fellow. unless of course you are referring to the witch in Hansel and Gretel who eats children, and who is secretly one of my role models in life.
Apres – that’s very cute.
Aren’t we all just full of love and bonhomie (well, most of us), which just proves how unifying our Obama really is. Even hugs to you Grinch, if you are out there lurking.
jv-
LOL!!! where did you find that clip???
sadly, knee masseger got wrecked in autoclave after alien abduction -(turned out it was silicone.)
#263 Ron, Ok just for the Obamaphiles here:
There are places I remember
All my life, though some have changed
Some forever not for better
Some have gone and some remain
All these places had their moments
With lovers and friends
I still can recall
Some are dead and some are living
In my life I’ve loved them all.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=zI0Q8ytD44Y
and so Kirri in #262
who cann’t even work out the maths to know I was indeed correct , has to resort to a weak defence of Pancho’s maths cause Pancho per FINNS is sulking. Don’t you realise Kirri by continuing to highlight Panchos erros you are making him worse. The secret of the stats were in the Hispanic bloc by the way
j/v
#264
that is a racist cartoon you are happy to encourage others to look at , it shows your double race standards not Hillarys. People with your views are the impediment to racial equality policys & implementation
sad. again.
To my fairytale, dont be sad. good night and i’ll see you in my dream.
Calm down, Ron.
It gets worse – Pancho has an erros.
Night Finns- I might disagree with everything you say but I hope you sleep well.
Catria- an erros or an Eros?
that would be CatriNa.
ROTFLOL – you need to check with Ron!
FINNS
#267
“#263 Ron, Ok just for the Obamaphiles here…..”
Such generosity of spirit you have , but alas lifes very true message contained therein does not seem to reflect in month of blogging. But you never know you may have sparked a long forgotten ‘feeling’ & tomorrow we’ll be showed with humilty from winners and indeed some affection for one of their own Democrats
Hillary , can we hope , yes we can
268
Ron
I have not got a clue what you are babbling about, and I really do not give a damn about whatever it is. It’s nonsense, and reminds me very much of those poor vacant chaps who wander around mumbling to themselves in very earnest tones, but are clearly not the full quid.
What in god’s name could this possibly mean to me:
who cann’t even work out the maths to know I was indeed correct , has to resort to a weak defence of Pancho’s maths cause Pancho per FINNS is sulking. Don’t you realise Kirri by continuing to highlight Panchos erros you are making him worse. The secret of the stats were in the Hispanic bloc by the way
…it’s innanity Ron, and from what I’ve seen you pouring out for months, is a real worry in the mental health department.
Most of us here have fun, make a point or two, take a jibe, give one back, but don’t get too fixated on small points.
You’re obsessed Ron, and pages of near impenetrable rants only prove that you are not a happy camper.
Maybe it’s time to work out why, eh?
The secret of the stats were in the Hispanic bloc by the way
So 268 that would leave the secret to your soul…?
271
William Bowe
Oh, ya beat me to it!
Jen @ 266 – The pic is in the Black Sentinel archives for 5 September 2007:
http://theblacksentinel.wordpress.com/
So, autoclaves and silicone don’t mix? I think I remember something about that a while ago – or maybe it was a wild night at uni college?
r/Ron @ 268 You’re right r/Ron [that is a racist cartoon] – It’s completely unfair on little black ducks. I’ll be up before the Little Black Duck Anti-Discrimination Board if I’m not careful.
It’s clear that little black ducks need a voice – could that much needed voice be yours r/Ron?
Jen @ 274 I love it when you talk pollytacky.
Kiribilli -
sometimes it is kinder and less disturbing not to directly confront those who are ill-equipped to deal with it. Better to smile and walk on.
I can’t see any possibility at all that the Obama team will let Hillary pick VP.
Obama and the other higher ups in the Party are making a break from the Clintons.
She may well negotiate a position for her own future in the Party but i can’t see her having any influence on Obama’s team.
I wouldn’t rule out guys like Hagel or Luger or Bloomberg or Powell having a part on Obama’s ticket.
For VP
Wesley Clark? Nuh
Ed Rendell? Nuh
Evan byah? uh maybe
I think he’ll have a running mate consistent with his “change” theme and surround themselves with plenty of diverse experience.
thanks codger- and I try to show such restraint too.
Kirri
#278
Kirri we have a very fair moderater and he really was trying to protect
me from you my friend but I know you jest. The ‘black’ votes in my #220 were my calculations
But if you check the Hispanic vote on exit polls Kirri on ABC site , you’ll see what Pancho’s argument adds up to.
Thanks jv (for the Wright link I mean…),
happen to agree with every word the man has said once I read it in context, and not the stuupid edited sound-bites that so inflame the perpetually outraged – as a result of their own bigotry of course.
I’m done.
Night all.
No Ron, you need protecting from yourself.
Does it not occur to you that I have not a clue what you’re talking about? That you’re actually talking to yourself as if I somehow am engaged by your ‘argument’?
Talking to yourself Ron is one of the first signs, and that’s what I’m trying to tell you because nobody else will.
Give it a rest, mate, and let it go.
G’night Jen.
Yeah, night Jen.
Me too.
Flying solo for a few days, better recharge the batteries.
Ron at 286
Umm, wasn’t my take on the comment.
I thought KR was simply saying what most of us are thinking but don’t want to say.
g’night Jen,KR,Finns
G’night jv
see ya Catrina – I’d say be careful of the wolves out there, but you seem well able to fend for yourself!
jv – don’t worry, Pancho gave me his amths
FINNS & GG
j/v #264 “Yes, Jen, there are a few die-hards here, and I’m sure they will approve of Hillary’s latest no-holds-barred tactic in trying to secure the nomination:
http://theblacksentinel.files.wordpress.com/2007/09/racism2.jpg ”
Ron #268 “its a racist (duck) cartoon (about Hillary) you’re asking others 2 look !
j/v #281 “Ron @ 268 You’re right r/Ron [that is a racist cartoon] – It’s completely unfair on little black ducks. I’ll be up before the Little Black Duck Anti-Discrimination Board if I’m not careful. It’s clear that little black ducks need a voice – could that much needed voice be yours r/Ron? ”
Ron says: let anyone read for themselves. Your #264 was about Hillary ,
yet when I queried its racist content , you #281 pretended it was about ducks !
At best j/v , very sad disingenuous words. Ferny & Pancho do the same.
C’mon r/Ron let go and have a big loud belly laugh – it’s OK, just breath the air deep in between monster laughs and let those endorphins course through your body. It really does make you feel better. If more people did it there’d be less mental illness I reckon.
Catrina – amths sounds more powerful than capsicum spray.
By the way, I think r/Ron you might blog elsewhere as one ‘Elijah’ on that very subject:
http://elijahtanyirong1.blogspot.com/2006/03/tmr-hcl-and-amths.html
EC @ 248
“Seasoned noseclippers may enjoy the next post down.”
Dunno where you pull’ em from codger,
It’s the next stage that delights & alarms: the ‘veteran’…but I suspecct Jen is professionally advanced on this front…
Noseclip Rehab for Vets?
I figured the ducks were a metaphor for yesterday’s super delegate endorsements.
Geez, why am I missing the bigger picture?
Up on the NYT site is news about Clinton scratching into and exploiting the race differentiation.
Maybe the chicken picture was really about Hillary Clinton playing the racial divide to gain more votes in West Virginia and perhaps Kentucky? Nah – that would be really low.
URL to the above article:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/clinton-touts-white-support/
Little yellow chicken surrogates can get real nasty too ..
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/
Clinton seems to be doing whatever she can to discredit herself and in an inverted way, campaigning for her opponent. She is venturing into the no-man’s land of racial and social division – into the recesses of fear and resentment. I think she will end up mostly reminding voters of the merits of Obama’s appeal for a post-racial, post-partisan re-union. She is destroying herself, imho.
Catrina, the seeming willingness of Pelosi to stand up to the big money/ big talk elements in Democratic party speaks volumes. The mass migration of voter support for the Democrats – and Obama’s ability to raise funds from this source – can change American politics. Surely the party leaders can sense this.
BO
I don’t think that worries her one iota. She is all out for the utmost power she can attain.
If she fails?….she will just slink back to the Senate and join many other discredited egomaniacs.
307 was in response to 305
and to 306
yes the party leaders are seeing this.
they are clearly making a break from the Clintons. The Clintons haven’t and won’t go down easily but the Party ARE making a break from them.
blindoptimist at 306
There is without any shadow of doubt a sense of change in the air.
Wow – it’s just such a good feeling.
I’m sure you’re right, HH. She clearly has no scruples. But the direction she is going is right up a blind alley. I’m sure the majority of Americans want more than this kind of lowest-common-denominator, last-gasp claim. The numbers who have stood up for Obama surely must mean something.
Yes, Catrina. It is, strangely, both improbable and inevitable. At last, change is about to be launched in America.
BO
Indiana and North Carolina were extraordinary results. Anyone inside the Democrats who didn’t believe change was happening before tuesday do now.
15% in NC was remarkable in itself after all the dung that was relentlessly thrown at Obama.
But the stunning result was Indiana. White, rust belt state with small black population. Hillary went as low as you can go with her populist petrol tax that she knew would go nowhere in Congress.
I feared it would work. It didn’t. People rejected her and her style of politics.
Without Limbaughs interference(estimated to be worth 7% to Clinton) Indiana would have delivered a sound victory for change.
The Dems know that.
The building message of the past 12 months was crystalized on Tuesday.
The Webster’s Dictionary definition of momentum …
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/08/obama-works-the-house/
Chose your friends carefully ….
STEPHANOPOULOS: Two points on Howard’s interview. Number one, on Michigan and Florida the problem for the Clinton campaign is that the Democratic National Committee right now simply does not agree with the Clinton position. There’s going to be a meeting on May 31st of the Rules and Bylaws Committee. The members of that have signaled pretty clearly that they are not going to simply allow the Michigan and Florida delegations to be seated in full force the way Senator Clinton wants them seated. That makes the path even more difficult than the numbers Chris laid out there. Without Florida and Michigan, there’s no path to the nomination. The second big problem for the Clinton campaign right now is money. We know that Senator Clinton loaned herself a little more than $11 million. Going into April, the campaign finance reports show the campaign was carrying a debt of $10 million to $15 million. My sources are noW telling that that number is far higher. The campaign debt is far higher than ten million dollars. It could be double that, maybe even more. And the lack of money and load of that debt could be driving the decisions inside the Clinton camp in coming days.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/stephanopoulos-clinton-de_n_100790.html
Apologies if this has already been linked, a Jon Stewart classic worth watching:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=167429&title=festival-of-wrights
Wow – some amazing insider stories of the mistakes made by HRC’s campaign are coming out – this is my pick – how can you be “more electable” if you don’t understand the rules of the election you are going into???:
“Clinton picked people for her team primarily for their loyalty to her, instead of their mastery of the game. That became abundantly clear in a strategy session last year, according to two people who were there. As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state’s 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing any state to award them winner-take-all. Sitting nearby, veteran Democratic insider Harold M. Ickes, who had helped write those rules, was horrified — and let Penn know it. “How can it possibly be,” Ickes asked, “that the much vaunted chief strategist doesn’t understand proportional allocation?” And yet the strategy remained the same, with the campaign making its bet on big-state victories. Even now, it can seem as if they don’t get it. Both Bill and Hillary have noted plaintively that if Democrats had the same winner-take-all rules as Republicans, she’d be the nominee.”
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1738331,00.html
What an amateur! That should have been enough to get a ‘thanks for that Mark, you can sit down. Harold will take over now…’
I think it’s time I stopped insulting alley cats.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10184.html
#317
Well, why don’t they have the same rules as the Republicans and, more to the point, a presidential election? Primaries are obviously very different, but I would have thought that, more often than not, whoever wins the most delegates on a winner-take-all basis would have the best chance of doing the same in November.
But they are still screeching and scratching Jen. She still wants zero votes to count for Obama in Michigan:
“Camp Hillary is rejecting the new plan floated today by Michigan Dems that would seat the delegation by awarding 69 delegates to Hillary and 59 to Obama.
Hillary spokesperson Isaac Baker emails over this:
“This proposal does not honor the 600,000 votes that were cast in Michigan’s January primary. Those votes must be counted.”"
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/hillary_campaign_says_no_to_ne.php
What can the rationale of continuing with this be other than trying to damage Obama in that State? Surely the SDs are near the end of their tether.
Triton, it is an ideological position that the party has taken premised on two points.
First, winner takes all votes are inherently undemocratic and disenfranchising. This is a position with regards to their primaries and the general election. The Dems will work to change this in government.
Second, the winner takes all approach is divisive and creates a partisan approach to campaining – ie ignoring red states, taking blue ones – which harms the prospects of the party nationally. By campaigning in all states the Dems can rebuild their operation in 50 states and work towards taking back Congress (which they lost for the first time in four decades when power and resources were centralised in the 90s under Bill).
>Well, why don’t they have the same rules as the Republicans and, more to the point, a presidential election?
Obviously, the Democrats have decided this is how they want to run their primaries. Having decided as much, surely it is then the responsibility of the candidate who is attempting to win primaries to understand the rules!!!
Hiya Pancho-
‘Surely the SDs are near the end of their tether.’
well if little old us over here in Oz are fed up with her, and let’s face it as intersting as it all is we don’t get to vote, they must be chewing theri own arms off by now.
The behind the scenes negotiating would be white-hot now, and I can’t see, given her announcements that she will fight on, that they have any choice but to come out en masse and dismiss her.
What a hoot!
The Clintons are going down, and it’s all their own doing with their refusal to accept that they live in a democracy, and change can and has occurred in the hearts and minds of voters in the 8 years since Billy Boy held the reigns.
Who would ever have thought that Americns would wake up to the idiocy that has taken place in their names with such a resounding rejection of all things status quo – and that’s exactly what Hillary represents.
The implications of what this really means in terms of a cultural shift in the US are actually breathtaking.
Now we just have to hope that one of the Good Ol’ Boys doesn’t shoot him.
An apt cartoon analogy from The Economist:
“IN CARTOONS there is often a moment when a hapless character, having galloped over a cliff, is still unaware of the fact and hangs suspended in the air, legs pumping wildly, until realisation dawns, gravity intervenes and downfall ensues. Hillary Clinton’s campaign looks a bit like that this week. After her heavy loss in North Carolina and her barely perceptible victory in Indiana, a state she needed to carry triumphantly, Mrs Clinton’s campaign is surely close to its end.”
Wily Coyote outsmarted by the Roadrunner yet again. The trouble is, cartoon characters like Wily never die, they just bounce back as good as new after each fatal disaster, having learned nothing, and making more doomed plans with yet another wad of Acme-brand explosives. Those wacky Clintons, brought to you by Hanna-Barbera.
According to DCW, the SD margin is now below ten, excluding any Pelosi’s.
Clinton 269.5 – 260 Obama.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
So the question is, “what does Hillary want?”
She knows she cannot get first prize, by foul means or fair, her goose is cooked.
The next thing is for her to sit down with Obama (or proxies) and cut a deal:
1. Pay my debts (yes, that will be item one. They might be pollies, but money ALWAYS comes first, ego second)
2. VP? It does keep her but a ‘heartbeat’ from the throne, but will Obama settle for it? There’s the queston.
3. What else if NOT 2?
The longer the race goes on from here, the less likely she is to get VP, especially if she keeps the ‘nigga’ stuff running. It’s not endearing to anyone, especially the party bosses.
Also, the longer it runs the less leverage she has. If she lets it get to the stage where the supers can shut her out by pledging to Obama, she loses everything. She ain’t stoopid, so my guess is she will pull out fairly soon or else risk Obama calling her bluff.
Of course if Obama does not like what she wants, he can play out the clock but at a cost to him and ALWAYS the danger that she will ‘poison the well’ if she cannot force him to settle.
It’s staring down the rattlesnake time folks. Blink, and you’ve lost.
#322
Thanks, Pancho. I wasn’t aware that the Dems are opposed in principle to the rules of a presidential election. While they are at it, maybe they ought to consider preferential voting. Then their Ralph Nader problem would largely vanish. Your second point makes a lot of sense.
#323
Yes, I agree that Penn should certainly have known such a basic rule. It’s beyond belief that he didn’t.
Triton, yeah talk of electoral reform crescendoed pretty rapidly after Gore’s (no)win in 2000. I’m not sure how feasible it would be, changes to the constitution would need to be made, and you’d assume the Republicans would be blocking for all they are worth in order to keep all of the South.
(Just thinking out loud here) On the electoral reform front, Obama might actually represent the best chance of the Dems to get the Republicans to agree to a change to proportional representation – if he is able to “change the map” by winning States the Dems don’t normally win (through massively increased get-out-the-vote efforts and new and unexpected combinations of independents and youth along with more traditional Democrat constituencies) then the Republicans might look more favourably on getting a slice of the huge electoral college delegates from California and NY to bolster their position.
Morning Bludgers.
I notice that the press are beginning talk in post-Clinton terms. The battle is won; just a few skirmishes by a fanatical few to mop up. The concentration has turned to the main game – Obama v McCain.
On that note, Obama has also decided to virtually ignore Clinton and has turning his strategic focus towards McCain.
http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-obama8-2008may08,0,3657374.story
His team obviously received my email advising that ignoring Clinton rants is a very therapeutic exercise.
Hillary just cannot get anything right – it’s cringeworthy. What a relief she isn’t going to be able to take her bumbling ineptitude and old politics into the White House.
“Gas Tax Battle was a Political Gift to Obama”
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN0838317520080508
From today’s Wall St Journal:
“Rep. Neil Abercrombie of Hawaii, Sen. Obama’s birthplace, said the goal of Obama supporters is to rack up superdelegates’ endorsements before a May 31 meeting of the national party’s rules and bylaws committee that has been scheduled to settle the Florida and Michigan matter. That would signal Sen. Obama’s likely nomination, and facilitate a compromise acceptable to the Obama camp.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121020624486475371.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
So, can we expect the avalanche of SDs before May 31??
I still think many will wait till after 3 June (unless Hillary seriously embarasses herself and the Party).
Rather like the way Matt Frei ,in link below,refers to us as “online ferrets and super sleuths.”
New occupation to put on those endless bureaucratic forms.
“Washington diary:Miracle needed”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7389151.stm
What has been beneficial about this protracted campaign and cyber chatter is the laying bare of character flaws that were more carefully stage-managed in previous elections. Certainly an eye opener to the Clintons and wonder if Bill would have done as well if he ran today.
They have publicly stated they will claim victory on 20-21 May. So I’d expect a drip until then, and a good bloc soon after in order to reinforce the endgame narrative.
332
jaundiced view
It was not only a silly idea, only good for its insipidness, but a strategic error of monumental proportions. Firstly, she was ‘me-tooing’ McCain’s idea, and secondly she gave Obama a perfect shot at putting her and Macca in the one box.
It cleared the air for him and made her look even more desperate in her ‘bowser moments’. Hardly a presidential look, eh?
Keith Olbermann to break something on his show tonight. It seems that either Harold Wolfson or Mark Penn has begun shopping for a book deal. The carnival is beginning to pack up.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/8/184623/5562/465/512097
335
Pancho
I’d bet the back channels are running hot with offer and counter-offer, but like I said earlier, the longer she leaves it, the lower her leverage, and she does have a very large hole to backfill, eh?
So we are close now Pancho, very close.
All that bluster about on to the convention was a poor poker bluff, and no one took it seriously.
Well PB has turned into the blogosphere version of the old Bill Murray classic movie “Ground Hog Day”.
Every morning the same olds commence their faux scientific evaluations of why and how Hillary’s campaign will collapse. Yet every morning we wake to find she is still with us, fighting on.
The good news is, this could go on for months.
It’s lucky we got you, babe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzbwJG4jZw
It’s Wolfson! Her right hand man. Hold that thought GG…
Megan @ 334 – I like this bit:
337
Pancho
Ha, show and tell before the corpse is even cold? My god, that would be tacky, but if she hasn’t paid them enough yet they might like to take it out of her hide. And right now there’s more free publicity than money could buy.
We need a new term Pancho. In publishing there’s ‘vanity publishing’ where people with more money than talent, pay to publish their own book.
This year we’ve seen vanity candidates like Romney spend a king’s ransom making an idiot of himself, and now Hillary, pouring money down a hole when it’s plain she cannot win. If she ain’t quick on the concession she will end up kissing it all goodbye.
Smart? I wouldn’t call it that.
I did like this from the BBC article Megan mentioned above:
“The super-delegates are not returning her phone calls.
The maths of pledged delegates and the popular vote is looking grim.
On stage in Indianapolis a sunburnt Bill Clinton looked as sour as a giant cranberry.
Chelsea apeared to be on the verge of tears.
And yet on Wednesday morning, Hillary – dressed in fluorescent scarlet – came out dagger-eyed and guns blazing in a remake of the zombie movie Dawn of the Dead.
Mrs Clinton’s husband and daughter looked emotional during her speech
Apart from Mrs Clinton herself, it is very hard to find people who do not believe this is over.
Hillary is in denial – on life support.
Now it is just a question of consulting the relatives – i.e. the super-delegates – about when to pull the plug and how to preserve maximum dignity.
Republicans have none of the qualms that Democrats have on this issue and one of their kind put it like this: “Someone’s gonna have to take the family dog to the vet.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7389151.stm
Here Fido!!
KR,
You could be the first vanity blogger!
JV – we clearly have similar taste
#341
She could be in denial, but maybe she just wants to collect more donations to help pay off the debts and will then pull the plug.
The alien strategy is back! One of two possible miracles for Hillary outlined in Megan’s BBC article, apart from some gross skeleton in the cupboard, is:
“that Barack Obama is spirited away to a distant star by little green men. This, on balance, is the more likely scenario.”
Olbermann is still going…Patty Solis Doyle is also shopping for a deal!
Ferny @ 345 – And a similar liking for basket press reds I believe
She must have given them permission to do this at this stage. Maybe a May concession is back on the cards?
Gotta say I did like the reference to dear ol’ Bill looking like a “giant cranberry”. Then, with all the talk of aliens, it struck me why he’s so red-faced.
HE’S A SITH LORD!!
JV – Basket Press reds……mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!
But I’m closer to winning it than you!
FG – Sadly yes – however, with my regular north coast visits …
Maybe the book deals are a new fundraising angle. Give us $11m and I’ll tell you everything,
Obama and McCain camps exchange fire: GAME ON
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/05/mccain_obama_camps_trade_fire.html
Some funny titles on Daily Kos:
“Unsinkable”
“Sniped in the Caucuses”
“Pride and Prejudice”
“A funny thing happened on the way to the coronation”
344
Greensborough Growler
Are you familiar with the Japanese board game Go?
Well, slowly and inexorably, Obama has surrounded Clinton’s pieces, until now it’s plain to see she is finished. Her campaign charged off to lay claim to the big territory of Feb 5th, only to be quietly outmaneouvered by Obama, one day at a time.
She had the wrong strategy, she had the wrong message, and she woefully underestimated her opponent.
And, as she stubbornly held onto her failed strategy, you’ve held onto yours. Endless sniping and personal abuse, insulting everyone who did not hang onto a failing campaign, until you too are finally surrounded and exposed for what you are: a tiresome little aggro man.
You’ve lost Growler. You have exposed youself over these last few months and have nothing but childish insults left.
If that’s the level of your contribution, maybe you should think about why you are here. More childishly offensive insults will not enhance your persona, only confirm what everyone can see.
OK bludgers have a nice day.
I’m off to take number 2 son riding on a glorious autumn day.
Heaven on a stick.
(And yes Pancho, sooner rather than later. How’s that for a game of Go. Obama is a master player.)
From a blogger on the Washington Post site:
“Hillary ran a brutally inept, bungling campaign. She was a terrible executive officer for it. How do you go from First Lady to an overwhelmingly popular President, with all your fund-raising power, a 30 point lead in the polls, all your gold-plated connections to the Democratic elite, and wind up not only losing but going broke to a former Illinois nobody?”
And the Deathwatch now has Hillary’s pantsuit all wet, dropping her from 2.5% yesterday to 2.3% today.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190986/
Take heart though, Clintonistas. She’s still doing better than Brendan!
Meanwhile I notice that RCP has clipped a pledged delegate from Obama’s total, dropping it back from 166 yesterday to 165 today. Just some adjustments I guess.
Still no West Virginia polls on RCP?
The most recent WV poll I could find is a Rasmussen poll from 4 May:
Rasmussen Reports
5/4/2008
N=840
w/o Gore
Hillary Clinton 56%
Barack Obama 27%
Unsure 17%
http://www.presidentpolls2008.com/primary-election-poll-results/west-virginia-democratic-republican-polls.html
It is clear that HRC is deluded. Reuters is reporting that HRC campaign Chairman Terry McAuliffe told the NBC Morning Show:-
“That there was little reason to halt her longshot effort to catch Obama until the voting in their nominating fight ends on June 3. Six states hold contests until then.”
“She can win the states we need to win in the general election. Why should Hillary Clinton — until there is a nominee with the number of necessary delegates — why should she get out?”
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0839956720080508?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=10112
This is quality:
http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/05/clinton_sends_letter_to_obama.html
She’s sending open letters now, just like protesting scientists send to the gumment. And it’s kind of pathetic how it just peters out at the end: it turns out that without anyone important at DNC on her side, the nuclear option is ‘do this, or I’ll press a big red button (the big red button isn’t connected to anything, but it will sure look scary)’.
A large, large part of me wants her to stay in, because, really, how could the main game be any more fun than this? Could all Hillary supporters (and for that matter, any rich Obama ones) give her a few quid, please?
The deception of team Obama & the pro Obama liberal press
“Obama was favored to win Indiana all along. Both campaigns had internal predictions that Obama would carry Indiana by approximately 7 points. Only recent times(after Wright) did Clinton begin polling favorably there and once Obama started spending outrageous sums of money on negative ads, Clinton’s double-digit lead returned to earth.
25% of the Indiana electorate lives in the Chicago media market, Obama’s hometown! On the day before the primary, the Obama campaign spent $300,000 advertising in that neighboring market.
Clinton’s share of white women did go down in Indiana, compared to Ohio and Pennsylvania, which one might expect given Obama’s aggressive advertising campaign targeted at that demographic, but she still won over 60% of the white vote in Indiana, which means she picked up some white men (is that being reported? no.”
Obama has falsely claimed Indiana was really a win for Obama & the pro Obama press have repeated this lie
Obama & his team’s penchant for telling lies & giving false information has been evident since January & Indiana is a further example
My reading of McAuliffe’s comments (Grace @ 362):
“I have been reassured that my and my co-workers’ wages are covered through to at least May 20.”
Hillary is deploying the nuclear option. Here is an open letter she sent to Obama yesterday:
“I have consistently said that the votes cast in Florida and Michigan in January should be counted. We cannot ignore the fact that the people in those states took the time to be a part of this process and to make their preferences known.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/m.s.-bellows/clintons-open-letter-to-o_b_100861.html
The letter actually had some typos/spelling errors in it, suggesting it was cobbled together in a hurry… maybe a little panic setting in???.
Despite some recent posts leading posters to the view that he is a real-life human being with issues, post #364 strongly swings the pendulum back in favour of the view that Ron is a bot.
Note to programmer: you still have work to do on spelling and syntax.
I don’t think anyone should be giving Hillary money. It was her decision to run for the nomination, her decision to spend what she spent on the campaign, and her decision to loan her own money to the campaign. She has to take responsibility.
Why should anyone give her money so she can add a few million dollars more to the many millions she already has?
>Obama & his team’s penchant for telling lies & giving false information has been evident since January & Indiana is a further example
Indeed. I heard he landed his campaign plane in Indianapolis under heavy anti-aircraft fire while claiming he did not have sexual relations with that woman and promising a petrol tax holiday!!!
Ron – it’s over. Hillary is kaput.
The question you now need to answer is: Will you be supporting Obama or McCain for president?
>The letter actually had some typos/spelling errors in it
The sub-editors have apparently been re-deployed to work on the insider-spills-the-beans books.
SimonH #365
I think Bill was looking like a Cranberry because she is insisting on spending their money on her campaign. She is now being accused of using the race card as the LA Times is reporting:_
“That’s the question being hashed over in much of political Washington concerning comments Hillary Clinton made to USA Today in making her case for soldiering on in her bid to draw to an inside straight and overtake Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential race.”
Here’s the passage swirling the discussion:
” ‘I have a much broader base to build a winning coalition on,’ she said in an interview with USA Today. As evidence, Clinton cited an Associated Press article ‘that found how Sen. Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states (those voting in Tuesday’s Indiana and North Carolina primaries) who had not completed college were supporting me.’ ”
“There’s a pattern emerging here,” she said.
latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/hillary-clint-8.html
SimonH
that Clinton letter to Obama was pretty funny but i didn’t literally start laughing until i got to the end.
She signed it “sincerely – Hillary Clinton”….what a hoot.
Hillary…sincere
I’m arriving late to this thread, but W. Virginia will be an interesting contest because it will give clues as to how the candidates rate among independent voters. Even if Hillary wins WV (and she will), it will be a moral victory for Obama if he scores well among independents. Both parties will need indepedendent voters to win in November, and Obama has done well so far with these. It was these same independent votes who mostly sided with Bush in ‘04, but came back to the Dems in droves in ‘06 in the mid-terms.
Ron: you are as deluded as Hillary and her few remaining supporters!
You’d think the lady might have the intelligence to realise her cause is hopeless!
Noocat @ 370 – I think the similarity between Hillary and McCain, especially their matching skin colour, will see r/Ron supporting him.
Two additional SD’s to the kid, I believe. The relentless inexorability continues …
Barack Obama won two more superdelegate endorsements Thursday, narrowing his deficit with Hillary Clinton to seven
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/08/obama-picks-up-superdelegate-2/
GG
Scolled back you popped in , good morning. You missed Pancho’s falsely based maths last night trying to weaken FINNS excellent #161 contribution. FINNS blog exposed the Obama votng charade of popular white voting support , so Pancho used distorted figures to disagree , until I expose his pathetic maths base in #220 , then he spat dummy at being exposed for poor maths
GG tell me where the 2209 delegates are that Obama has , because the mutual admiration society Onbamabots here are acting as if the phony Obama has them
KR @ 357,
Tissuebox time.
The classic bullies defence. It’s apparently “very funny” when you ridicule and denigrate other contributors. But, so unfair when someone has the temerity to stand up for themselves and return fire. It’s even worse for your ego when they cut through your blustering facade and make you out as the farting Falstaff you really are.
You also have a tendancy to project emotions and motives on to others which are clearly your own. You don’t like that being pointed out, do you?
That I like pricking pomposity and exaggerations is no big secret. But, I certainly try do it with a smile on my face. I am just grateful there is so much ammunition provided by the PBers and especially by your good self.
My continuing contributions to the site are entirely at William’s discretion. I cop a fair bit which is fair given my direct writing style. However, I always try to fight it out on the blog and have never advocated anyone being banned or censored about comments they may make about me.
But, I ask you, where is the love?.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImQcCMWjpW0
>the mutual admiration society Onbamabots here are acting as if the phony Obama has them
Ron, who cares what is being said on an Australian blog – what do you see being played out in the US political mainstream??? Is Hillary lulling Obama into a false sense of security, ready to strike when he least expects it???
Ron,
Yeah read Finns excellent dissertation.
However, as always, its “pearls before swine” with the Obama cheer squad.
See my earlier post about “Ground Hog Day”.
Cheers.
GG and Ron,
I must inform you as a fellow Clintonista that the game is up – she is dead and buried (and nothing we say is going to change that).
I think it is best that we all move forward together to see how Obama can crush McCain in November (which is not a given notwithstanding the assertions of many on this site). The fact that HRC will win the Democratic primaries in WV and KY will not ultimately matter, as by the time the Convention comes around, Obama will be the clear presumptive nominee.
I think a more important question is – who will be Obama’s VP pick? And who will be McCain’s VP pick?
Swing Lowe @ 382 – [I must inform you as a fellow Clintonista that the game is up]
That’s the spirit SL. If only some others could take an extra pill and step out into the light. What do you think of Possum’s speculation about Wesley Clark for Obama’s VP?
SL,
Farewell, my fair weather friend.
Cheers.
Ronbot – learn to read and/or count. I stand by all my maths and assertions. Come on back to reality!
JV @ 383,
I’m not sure about Clark as VP. He didn’t seem to fire very well as a Presidential candidate back in 2004. He does lend Obama some crucial national security experience that he is lacking at the moment.
The one key problem I have with an Obama-Clark ticket is that it lacks any state management experience. That’s why I prefer a Obama-Kaine (current Gov. of Virginia) ticket, as having a Governor on the ticket brings some management experience to the ticket. It also puts Virginia firmly into the “swing” state category, as Kaine is quite a popular Governor there. The fact that Virginia is home to several military bases helps the ticket’s national security credentials somewhat.
However, what I think is the deciding factor in Kaine’s favour is that he has proven experience in bringing traditionally Republican areas to the Democrats – particularly in white suburban areas. Clark’s political record is equivocal at best and poor at worst. Kaine was one of Obama’s earliest endorsers (which means that there shouldn’t be any major personality clashes between the two of them) and is more conservative than Obama (which provides some cross-over appeal).
#382 – SL, I said it before, the big difference between us Hillary supporters (GG, Ron and me) is that we want to see a McCain got beaten in Nov. Whereas, the Obama supporters here are simply want to see Hillary got beaten, the sooner the better. Then they “HOPE” Obama can beat McCain in November. We are not prepare to take that chance, we want someone we know that WILL beat McCain, not HOPE.
You are welcome to join them, it’s a free country. We will fight on until our candidate concedes and we will concede.
>we want someone we know that WILL beat McCain, not HOPE.
As someone who also previously thought Hillary was the better pick, I must ask you GG Ron and Finns, HOW can your certainty not be blown away in light of the fact that Hillary’s campaign team has been shown to have run a TERRIBLE campaign.
They have stuffed it at every turn, from the very basic starting point of not being aware of the rules for how delegates are going to be distributed in the primaries.
SL – There is a bit of a shortage of quality well-known VP material it seems. Kaine looks fine to me (not that his overseeing 4 executions is ‘fine’, but it’s all relative!), but maybe a little too similar to Obama in outlook and background, meaning no additional spread of appeal for the ticket. Where does the “good ol’ boy” vote come from? That’s where a four star VP might help.
Still arguing that the lady that can’t beat Obama can beat McCain, Finns?
Now who’d dreamin’? As Churchill said, “No Matter how beautiful the campaign, sometimes you’ve just got to look at the results.”
You’d also think the certainty of her winning elections may be shaken by her…not winning the election.
Also, re her ‘vetting’, have a look at this article: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/08/998470.aspx
An enormous document just begging for her victory has been sitting in the RNC vault all along. Pity they won’t get to use it really.
FG,
Another, who can definatively point to the 2024 committed delegates. Not!
Finns @ 387 Obama supporters here are simply want to see Hillary got beaten
Incorrect. I prefer a POTUS who will change the world for the better, therefore Obama over Clinton.
Obama will beat McCain, so where’s the problem?
GG – What do think of the goalpost shift to 2209 now? I note you’re not using that yardstick.
Pancho
I’m in the school that believes the “dirt files” of the Republicans would not have worked on Hillary or Obama.
Gingrich said it perfectly. No matter how much dung they fling, people will just say “Not You” to the Republicans.
When people are over you…they are over you.
Pancho,
I will support anything that will prolong your agony.
I am an advocate for including Michigan and Florida on the grounds of principle and have been for many months. If the Democrats are seeing the light on this matter, then there is some hope.
Harry, while I tend to agree with you, the existence of these documents, and the fact that Hillary’s is more substantial than Obama’s, and contains new information, makes a(nother) lie of the argument that she’s been through it all and ‘vetted’. If one set of weaknesses is exploitable, so is the other.
GG – no agony here. I’m pretty happy with the way it’s all going.
Even the amusing interjections, contradictions and scrambling by the Hillaryous everywhere.
Where’s the Love, Grinch?
I still love you., and I feel your pain.
Now get on with it, and start supporting the greatest political triumph over neo-conservatism that we may witness in our insignificant lives.
That, my friend, is what this is all about in the end.
#387
It’s obvious Hillary will not be the Democrat candidate. So, if you really want McCain beaten, then start blogging in support of Obama, and maybe even throw a donation his way.
That’s the spirit!!! Good to see eyes on the main game!!!
#396
What principle is that, GG?
Count another Obama SD for tomorrow before the sun has even risen. From DCW:
‘Tomorrow will see an add-on from Utah selected. In April, Utah’s DNC Chair Wayne Holland announced that he would name an Obama supporter as the add-on.’
Maybe Hillary will approach McCain to be his VP, hoping that he will die at some stage during his candidature.
Noocat -
wouldn’t surprise me…
principles of an alley cat (with apologies to all good alley cats everywhere – i’m only alluding to the mangy ones)>
Besides – isn’t he already dead? Looks it.
Noocat,
John Stewart told McCain last night that he should pick HRC as his running mate. McCain emphatically ruled that option out.
Jen @ 405 – Here’s the alley cat called Principles, with the backdrop she craves.
http://blogs.nbcuni.com/petsideblog/socks.whitehouse.jpg
Grace, I’m not surprised by McCain’s response, but also wouldn’t be surprised to see Hillary desperate enough to try anyway.
Jen, it is hard to imagine McCain lasting 8 years in the job.
GG,
We’ve had this discussion before: What principle?
If you’re arguing from the point of “fairness and general democratic principles” the most you can argue for is a recount. An election where one candidate wasn’t on the ballot is not exactly fair nor in line with democratic principles.
You cannot argue from the rules, becuase the rules are clear: They shound not be seated.
I just want to make it clear that I too want to see someone defeat McCain.
However, it is becoming clearer by the day that, notwithstanding my preference amongst the Democratic candidates (Hillary), the Democratic party will choose Barack Obama to be their nominee for the general election. I’m not saying that he is the best choice (I don’t think he is), but now that the party has spoken, it is time to move on and focus on how Obama can defeat McCain. This is not being a fair weather friend (I doubt this considering that I was one of the few people on this blog supporting Hillary) – it is being realistic about my preferred candidate’s (once again, I reiterate that this is Hillary) prospects.
As to Wesley Clark’s prospects as being Obama’s VP, I admit that I think he will be a good candidate – it’s just that I’m not sure that he’ll be the best candidate. He has limited political experience (1 miserable failure of a presidential campaign) and is an unknown quantity on the national political stage. That said, he probably puts Arkansas into play and does help with the white male vote.
My pick for McCain’s VP (as in, this is the person I think McCain should pick if he wants to win) is Tim Pawlenty – Governor of Minnesota. He is one of the few Republican governors of a “blue” state, he’s relatively moderate and he increases the Republicans’ appeal in the mid-west.
SL, I would have thought McCain would need a VP to his right to shore up that base. 25% of Republicans are still turning out to Primaries – not even the general – to vote against him. I still wouldn’t count Huckerbee out.
GG @ 396: see me @ 363. We’re in complete agreement!
Don’t let it stop because of trivialities like certain defeat and lack of cash, now that we’re finally getting to the really good (and increasingly funny/pathetic) bit.
Triton @ 402: Shame on you. The principle is that HRC must be the Democratic Party’s candidate for President of the United States in November 2008, and not even God herself may stand in the way of this historical inevitability coming to pass. Haven’t you been paying attention?
The slight problem now is that even changing the rules mid-game won’t save her (unless they were changed to something really good like, ‘every last soul in Michigan and Florida is deemed to be a diehard supporter of HRC and delegates will be allocated accordingly’). Which in turn is a reason why the DNC has no interest in changing the rules mid-game to do anything but give a token peace offering to the Michigan and Florida Democrat organisations. Catch 22.
G’day Gang,
Thurs May 8: Aba-da….aba-da…..aba-da
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AuTCo4ruBUNBSoJczGj9.cRQ_b4F
Thurs May 8: When Life-Styles of the Rich & Famous become Pitfalls of the Over Energised.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AoHSMifB5ubswpO0lJKHLP8V2r8F
Thurs May 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=AiNZUFmgu1vRwNLxaK1hVQkDwLAF
Pancho@ 412,
If McCain wanted a conservative VP, he’ll probably go for Gov Mark Sanford (South Carolina) – a well respected conservative Governor. The only problem with him is that he brings nothing with him in respect to electoral votes at the general election.
Another possible candidate is Gov Bobby Jindal (Louisiana), who is Indian-American (as in South Asian) and is considered acceptable by the right. It also partially negates Obama’s characterisation as the ‘minority’ candidate. What counts against Jindal is his lack of experience – he was a congressman for 1.5 terms and governor for less than a year (he was sworn in on January 14th of this year).
Both of these are good choices – but not great. The best candidate – Jeb Bush, IMHO – is electoral death this year because of his last name…
Amusing YouTube video, not recommended to sensitive Clinton supporters or those easily offended by rough language.
#410 RA
I’m having trouble getting my head around the prospect of Florida & Michigan recounts at this late stage. That would be some agony for the party to put itself through. But there’s no other fair way those states can be represented (other than a nominal 50/50 split) if Hillary wants them to count.
WB – brilliant!
And another thrashing from the NYT editorial board:
“But we believe just as strongly that Mrs. Clinton will be making a terrible mistake — for herself, her party and for the nation — if she continues to press her candidacy through negative campaigning with disturbing racial undertones. We believe it would also be a terrible mistake if she launches a fight over the disqualified delegations from Florida and Michigan.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09fri1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
William Bowe – lol – that’s very, very funny! – hopefully regardless of who one supports … and I suspect it may mirror the mood in the other bunker in Rochester NY.
Oh Gawd, now even Krauthammer has dumped her:
“There’s only one remaining chapter in this fascinating spectacle. Negotiating the terms of Hillary’s surrender. After which we will have six months of watching her enthusiastically stumping the country for Obama, denying with utter conviction Republican charges that he is the out of touch, latte-sipping elitist she warned Democrats against so urgently in the last, late leg of her doomed campaign.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/no_apology_leaves_clinton_feel.html
“Marshmellow-shaped dykes”
LOL.
Lovely afternoon.
And I just know my money is safe if the likes of GG and Ron are the only two sad sacks who don’t know it’s over for Hillarious.
Remember Glen? Backed Howard until the election, dumped on Rudd in the most infantile and inchoherent way, and then came back here to cheer for Rudy Guiliani! LOL
Some people can only gravitate to losers because they have such strong affinity.
What’s the bet they’ll move onto backing McCain for another flogging!
Oh, and they (secretly like being humiliated. Afterall, they keep coming back again and again with the same dimwitted tripe).
416
William Bowe
LOL
Mein Furher ist Tott (or toast, as they say in the NY Post!)
Swing Lowe
#382 (this is from me as I cann’t speak on behalf of FINNS or GG)
Firstly, I can understand your reluctance for association to me (your first today #382) given your probable desire to intelligently engage & debate with Obamaphiles & finding some of my blogs too aggressive for your liking & had you so associated it may have put at risk your desire to engage with Obamaphiles.
Its your perogative.You’re an irregular bloger.Regular blogers like me (GG & FINNS
Labor supporters (3) have faced around 30 Obamaphiles daily, 70% sniping personally & derisonary but in varying degrees of venom. Hence the return fire
you may find upsetting but none of us 3 will wear it and perhaps you wouldn’t have either , had you bloged every day for 3 months with belittling barbs either, especially given the gross numerical imbalance. Further you’ll find as much concession on valid points we’ve made as you’ll get from a rusted on ‘Howard’ supporter elsewhere, despite some of our concessions on Hillary weakness’s.
For the inital reason mentioned you may not reply as is your right.
Secondly, reasons for continued Hillary support SL:
(a) I want Democtats to win POTUS, Hillary can & I think Obama can not.
The odds of Hillary’s Nomineeship I agree have shrunk but to give up on the only one of the 2 whose electable, whilst there is still a Hillary chance, is not for me (b) How can she win ? (i) there’s approx 850 delegates ‘uncommitted’ (approx 475 100% uncommitted) and approx 384 in Mitchigan/ Florida where Hillary won the States easily. Additionally everyone has wrongly omitted Edwards delegates as won by Obama erroneously inflating his potential 2 states numbers,
(c) Obama has made so many conflicting statements & not just over Wright, that Hillary should hold on despite the point (b)numbers because another big ‘gaffe’ from Obama’s mouth will sink him
(d) The Partys interests are served by scutiny now to see if Obama can handle pressure , so far Obama not well
(e) Hillary’s & the Party’s interests are to prolong the campaign to make it more obvious to objective SD’s that Obama’s delegate lead itself , the 174 lead , rests on a psephologically unhealthy 90%+ black vote plus unwinnable ‘red’ States delgates won. A conclusion possible is Obama has cleverly ‘played’ the Nominee delegate race system to win the race but being the least electable of the two using his OWN Primary wins as the criteria, over the far more electable (Hillary)
420
Ferny Grover
Another turncoat! Wasn’t GG quoting Krauti like he was the achangel Gabriel the other day?
My goodness, you can’t even trust the clapped out neocon’s to stay faithful.
What’s the world coming to? LOL
415
Swing Lowe
If Hillary Clinton had waged a half good campaign, shown herself as more than a desperate ego railing at her own shortcomings, then I would have accepted her winning.
She didn’t come anywhere near it, especially for someone with so many royal privileges. In fact she went well down in my estimation the longer the race went on.
The next bit is going to be fascinating. Can she redeem herself? Will she try to poison the well?
Stay tuned, and pass the popcorn…
Official final results from Indiana Secretary of State reported by Daily Kos.
Hillary won by less than 1% with a margin of 11,152 votes.
What a great graph: http://bp0.blogger.com/_qJGvnOCBQcA/SCJfLFXslHI/AAAAAAAAARk/ZoZJdQaFFn8/s1600-h/image001.gif
If only she can hang on those SDs will come round.
I’d say that by Tuesday they will need to extend that y axis into the negative.
Callum – what a great result, and a rebuttal to Clinton’s garbage about his weakness with ‘working Americans, hardworking Americans, white Americans’. And it is also a slap to Evan Bayh and his ability to run or carry Indiana as a surrogate.
Shoulda waited with that graph:
‘Rep. Donald Payne (D-10th Dist.), a New Jersey superdelegate who had been supporting Hillary Clinton for president, has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama.
“After careful consideration, I have reached the conclusion that Barack Obama can best bring about the change that our country so desperately wants and needs,” Payne told The Star-Ledger for today’s editions. It was “one of the most difficult decisions I have made,” Payne said. “I’ve really been mulling it over for quite a while.”‘
http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2008/05/congressman_payne_nj_superdele.html
Counting tomorrow’s Utah add-on, I make that a margin of Clinton by 6.5. Maybe that y axis will go negative by the weekend.
430 Pancho – The more that line of Hillary’s is repeated the more starkly the racism inherent in it stands out. It is making a racist distinction between whites who are: 1. hardworking, and 2.’ American’ on the one hand, and blacks who vote for Obama, and are by implication: 1. lazy, and 2. un-American, on the other.
It’s the language of us against them. Disgraceful. A new low point, and that’s saying something.
Pancho, yes a very good result. My sympathy to those who backed Obama to win in Indiana. They just missed out on a very nice win.
And I need to correct my post. The Daily Kos story incorrectly states that they are the final figures. However in the comments attached, readers point out that the vote is still ongoing with up to 10 days to count provisionals.
Official figures here.
You can picture those dear little Hillary-attached SD’s as the Age of Obama suddenly dawns upon them and they watch as the sands of Hillary’s power and influence disappears between their fingers. If you listen closely you can hear them in unison cry –
“OH CRAP! How do I switch camps and still looked dignified? OH CRAP!”
An interesting article on HuffPost.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/obama-camp-faces-major-ob_n_100928.html
I’m not sure how many of Obama’s donors will be happy to know their money might be used to bail out the banshee queen.
Speaking of FL and MI, this is well worth having a look at:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html
It allows you to play with prospective results and turnouts in the remaining 6 contests and then compare them against an array of possible means of determining ‘who won the popular vote’.
But most interestingly at the bottom it contains turnout stats (percentage of voters in the primaries compared with those who voted for Kerry in 2004) for each of the 34 states who have held a ballot-box primary so far. The data seems pertinent now for two reasons:
a) It exposes the ‘let every voice be heard’ cant about Florida and Michigan. Michigan (24.0%) and Florida (48.5%) run last and 27th respectively in turnout out of the 34 states. Voters in those states weren’t stupid– they were well aware that the delegates had been stripped, that it was a meaningless beauty contest (at which in Michigan, most of the contestants weren’t even on the catwalk)– and so masses of them quite logically stayed home. Barring a revote, their voices haven’t been heard, and they won’t be heard, because they were never going to be heard. And everyone always knew it.
b) What it tells us about November. It gives some hope that the ‘Obama brings out independents and hitherto non-voters’ hype is more than just hype. The biggest 3 turnouts have been Indiana (an unbelievable 133% of those who voted Kerry in 2004), North Carolina (102%) and Texas (100%). In IN and NC he did significantly better than the RCP pollsters’ average; in Texas slightly worse (3.5% actual loss as opposed to 1.7% estimated), but the expected loss was more like 10% a month out from the poll and so the pollsters just slightly overestimated the bounce. In every case, there’s good reason to think that he made up the gap/increased the margin by bringing in new voters, rather than just stealing them off HRC.
It’s a nice position for a hardworking candidate in a voluntary voting democracy to be in, to know that the more people vote, the better you will do. Particularly where you’re flush with cash to spend on bringing them out.
Clinton supporters will love the calculator as well, as on anticipated results in the remaining 6 contests she wins the popular vote on certain permutations of it (some of those permutations admittedly being biased towards her, including the hilarious Ron Solution of giving her Michigan by over 300,000 to zero). The flaw in the associated analysis (’how Hillary can still pinch this thing’), though, is that it presumes that a heavily qualified, heavily contentious victory on certain calculations of the popular vote, would change the narrative that is now unfolding. It won’t, any more than a clear and undisputed win in the national popular vote helped Gore in 2000. You have to win the game you’re playing, not some other game. And the game is delegates.
Obama in the House chamber on Thursday gets the leader’s welcome:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/us/politics/09obama.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
…and he draws aim at McCain.
Way back I said I thought Hillary would scrape it through to the end of the primaries before concedeing, but now I’m fairly certain she cannot afford to, in both senses. If she drags it out she’ll having nothing to bargain with at the end because he will win the nomination with the numbers.
She can concede and negotiate some concessions now, but by then, she’s burnt toast.
435 TW
That presents an interesting ethical dilemma for Obama. If the money is given for a specific purpose ie to aid his – and only his – campaign, then he may be unable to pass it on to her. It could be argued, however, that such a deal is all part of running his campaign and, I suspect, the candidate has wide discretion in such allocations, provided all are publicly accounted for. That won’t stop some from feeling less than happy about it, of course.
But most will just be glad she’s gone.
What I’m looking forward to now are 3 things:
1. Hillary’s hissing and scratching withdrawal in the coming days, not weeks.
2. The first set of polls of Obama v McCain after the nomination is settled.
3. The ‘I was wrong’ admissions from the rusted-on Clintonistas here and abroad if 2. shows the Dems suppport through the roof (which I think it will be).
439 JV
Now you know that -3- just ‘aint gonna happen ’round these parts
436
SimonH
Good post SH, sums it up well and shows just a winning strategy Obama has run.
It kind of sticks it up the ‘kumbaya’ children, eh?
Ferny – I guess not – we’ll just get more Bradley effect predictions I suppose
439
jaundiced view
I’m with Ferny on 3! LOL
The belligerent one, the delusional one, and the infantile one are NOT here to be swayed by argument, facts, numbers nor it seems reality.
Some kids pull the wings off butterflies, but the rest of us grow up.
Clinton by 5.5 SDs now! Maybe it’ll be tonight?
“Tonight Rep. Peter DeFazio became Oregon’s third Democratic congressman to endorse Sen.Barack Obama, putting the Illinois politician one delegate closer to the presidential nomination.
DeFazio said that Obama, who will begin a two-day campaign trip to the state Friday morning, “represents our best chance of winning in November.”
http://blog.oregonlive.com/elections/2008/05/defazio_throw_his_support_to_o.html
436 SimonH
Well put, Obama is attracting the independents and people who have not bothered to vote. This is because as,Dan Rooney, the owner of the Pittsburgh Steelers, who is campaining for Obama in West Virginia, put it:
“You get a chance once in every 50 years to elect someone with the leadership of Barack Obama.”
http://www.theintelligencer.net/page/content.detail/id/509274.html?nav=515
A wiser person than me a few hundred posts back (can’t find original post now), alluded in passing to a completely rational reason why it’s in the interests of the Democrats for HRC to stay in until after 20 May.
Obama is going to get an absolute pounding in West Virginia. He’s also going to get a pounding in Kentucky. He would very likely still lose both even if HRC ’suspended her campaign’ today. It would be a bad look for the anointed Democrat candidate to lose 2 primaries in a row with no active opposition at all. The meeja and Repubs would have a field day, at least for a few days.
If she pulls out after 20 May, she does so a winner (on 2 out of the last 3 contests), on her own terms and at her own time; and with a runup of a week and a half and the support of the local head honcho, Obama would win Puerto Rico to avoid any early-June embarrassment. More likely of course, once she gets to 20 May, she says ‘I’ve gone this far, I might as well go all the way at the ballot-box’ and concedes after the last vote is counted on June 3, winning P Rico but losing Montana and SD. If she bats on after June 3, you need a psychiatrist, not a political strategist, to give opinions on what might happen.
Not that HRC would willingly do anything that helps the Dems actually win the presidency if she weren’t part of the team, but a delayed withdrawal by her would/will be serendipitous for at least the next little bit.
Triton and others,
The principle I allude to is that it is a farce to exclude the voters of Michigan and Florida due to some contrived technicality. It will only damage whomever the Democrat candidate may be.
You can point to rules till the cows come home. All in all, exclusion is a very poor look.
I agree. I’m gonna round up the votes from my block and demand their inclusion. I don’t care that I live in Sydney. Doesn’t matter about the rules. Exclusion is a very poor look.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/9/13750/72048/238/512348
GG,
I’ve felt all along that I thought the best approach to FL and MI was the GOPs decision and merely halving the delegations. But describing the reason for their exclusion as only a contrived technicality is a bit disingenuous. Both states were well aware of the consequences of their actions months before it turned out the primary was going to be so hotly contested.
Pancho,
Clearly, we have a difference of opinion. What can I say, apart from you are wrong.
Cheers.
FG @ 390,
Rather than some obscure Churchill words, here’s some that we can all relate to.
“we shall fight on the seas and oceans,
we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our Island, whatever the cost may be,
we shall fight on the beaches,
we shall fight on the landing grounds,
we shall fight in the fields and in the streets,
we shall fight in the hills;
we shall never surrender”
Go Hillary.
GG @ 447: Hard to know where to start with you.
1. The fact that it was known all along that the primaries would not count for anything, and as a result the candidates signed a pledge not to campaign and most of them quite legitimately chose not to even be on the ballot in MI, is a “contrived technicality”. Sounds like a good scheme for the conduct of the Zimbabwean runoffs, actually. ‘My opponent may have refused to campaign in protest at blatant breaches of our electoral laws, and his name didn’t even appear on the ballot paper, but I regard this result as an overwhelming mandate from the people’, Mr Mugabe said.
2. Yeah, naysayers can point to those ‘rule’ things about the conduct of elections all you want. Whatever they are. The fact is that the Bomber won the national 2PP in 1998, so no matter what some out-of-touch boffin said about ‘electoral laws’ and ’seats won’, his supporters should have just claimed the popular mandate and seized power. It’s all about the principle of the thing.
Yep, me and the DNC. But for anyone actually interested in following the seating of Florida and Michigan (which is inevitable) rather than shooting off pro-Clinton talking points, Obama has been positive about the MI 69-59 split (endorsed by all of the MI delegation), and Clinton has dismissed it. And today, Obama has vowed to seat the Florida delegates: http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/05/obama_vows_to_seat_fla_delegat.html.
GG, I am aware the you are right and the DNC is wrong, but I reckon it’s their opinion that counts here.
GG
So when’s D-Day?
SimonH,
A supposedly Democratic system that excludes a significant proportion of the population because of a contrived rule is a joke and brings the whole process in to disrepute.
One reason the whole Democrat Primary process has continued on is that the voters are actually enjoying the participation. Record numbers of voters have turned out which is a clear sign of a healthy resurgence in participatory democracy.
Perhaps the reason there is no clear winner yet is that the voters want to keep the whole process going and let everyone have a say.
Nobody has shown me as yet how is Obama going to shift his narrative of being “intellectual and ideological (not social) elitism”
OR “His first instinct — the academic instinct — is to explain and analyze, which is impressive to political writers who share that particular vocation. But this approach always places the explainer in a position of superiority. The arrogance of the aristocrat is nothing compared to the arrogance of the academic”.
OR “The problem here is not that Obama is unpatriotic — a foolish, unfair, destructive charge — but that Obama has declared himself superior to an almost universal form of popular patriotism. And this sense of superiority, revealed in case after case, has political consequences, because the Obama narrative reinforces the Democratic narrative. It is now possible to imagine Obama at a cocktail party with Kerry, Al Gore and Michael Dukakis, sharing a laugh about gun-toting, Bible-thumping, flag-pin-wearing, small-town Americans.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/flag_pins_and_foolishness.html
His cultural mis-connect to the middle America is there for all to see. Until he can re-cast himself. Else he will be just another feel-good Democrat Liberal POTUS candidate that always gets the thumping from the Repugs, ala 1972 & 1984 & 1988.
States Won:
1968 – Nixon 32 Humprey 14
1972 – Nixon 49 McGovern 2
1976 – Carter 24 Ford 27
1980 – Reagan 44 Carter 7
1984 – Reagan 49 Mondale 2
1988 – Bush1 40 Dukakis 11
1992 – Clinton 33 Bush1 18
1996 – Clinton 32 Dole 19
2000 – Bush2 30 Gore 21
2004 – Bush2 31 Kerry 20
Billary apparently has gone for a check up with her GP (Dr Dodgynees) to see if she is fit enough to continue to campaign.
He established that she did not have enough Supers,
Her feet were full of Calluses from all the duck hunting and running to dodge bullets in Bosnia,
She had such a busy schedule and only ate the odd cheeseburger in a can that she carried with her and is becoming rather Frail,
She was remembering way to many Mystery events in her life,
Because of the odd diet she was suffering from bad Breath.
Dodgynees diagnosed that she was…………
A Super Calloused Fragile Mystic Hexed by Halitosis.
Cure!!! No more campaigning, a Bex and a good lie down.
Even Time can publish a decent article once in a while.
Here’s Karen Tumulty on The Five Mistakes Clinton Made.
GG -[Perhaps the reason there is no clear winner yet is that the voters want to keep the whole process going and let everyone have a say.]
Sorry GG – but that is florid, unmitigated piffle.
Let’s see – how could that be arranged? The Dem voters got together and had a meeting and decided some would vote for the candidate they didn’t support, to ‘keep the whole process going’ and their friends in other states voting down the track would have the luxury of a vote. Boy, they really are sophisticated aren’t they? Did this cunning plan include the gun totin’, whisky swillin’ demographic?
Apropos my post at 458, here’s the Cliff’s Notes for those who can’t be bothered reading TFA.
1. She misjudged the mood
2. She didn’t master the rules
3. She underestimated the caucus states
4. She relied on old money
5. She never counted on a long haul
Not anything new to those who have been following the contest but a good summary for those who have more valuable things to do with their time
Interesting speculation by Guy Rundle on why Hillary’s staying in the race. It’s all based on the 6 1/2 million she just lent her campaign.
“…the loan must be recovered by the date of the contest in question (the Party convention in this case) otherwise a campaign with more debts than assets can only raise another $250,000, no matter how much it owes. In other words: peanuts. ”
So she has to keep running to have a hope of raising enough money to pay herself back.
#455 GG – This one for u:
Clinton supporter pressures Pelosi over White House battle.
http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/08/clinton-supporter-pressures-pelosi-over-white-house-battle/
She’s workin’ that dogwhistle hard:
Citing an Associated Press analysis “that found how Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me,” she went on to say: “There’s a pattern emerging here.”
There is indeed a pattern emerging — and it is a pattern that must dismay everyone who admires the Clintons and has defended them against the charge that they are exploiting racial divisions.
But this time she violated the rhetorical rules, no doubt by mistake. It was her offhand reference to “working, hard-working Americans, white Americans” that raises the specter of old Dixie demagogues like Wallace and Lester Maddox. Was she dog-whistling to the voters of Kentucky and West Virginia?
http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2008/05/09/clinton_remarks/
…so one more time, with feelin’:
Last night I saw Lester Maddox on a TV show
With some smart ass New York Jew
And the Jew laughed at Lester Maddox
And the audience laughed at Lester Maddox too
Well he may be a fool but he’s our fool
If they think they’re better than him they’re wrong
So I went to the park and I took some paper along
And that’s where I made this song
We talk real funny down here
We drink too much and we laugh too loud
We’re too dumb to make it in no Northern town
And we’re keepin’ the niggers down
We got no-necked oilmen from Texas
And good ol’ boys from Tennessee
And colleges men from LSU
Went in dumb. Come out dumb too
Hustlin’ ’round Atlanta in their alligator shoes
Gettin’ drunk every weekend at the barbecues
And they’re keepin’ the niggers down
CHORUS
We’re rednecks, rednecks
And we don’t know our ass from a hole in the ground
We’re rednecks, we’re rednecks
And we’re keeping the niggers down
Now your northern nigger’s a Negro
You see he’s got his dignity
Down here we’re too ignorant to realize
That the North has set the nigger free
Yes he’s free to be put in a cage
In Harlem in New York City
And he’s free to be put in a cage on the South-Side of Chicago
And the West-Side
And he’s free to be put in a cage in Hough in Cleveland
And he’s free to be put in a cage in East St. Louis
And he’s free to be put in a cage in Fillmore in San Francisco
And he’s free to be put in a cage in Roxbury in Boston
They’re gatherin’ ‘em up from miles around
Keepin’ the niggers down
She’s workin’ that dogwhistle hard:
Citing an Associated Press analysis “that found how Senator Obama’s support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans, is weakening again, and how whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me,” she went on to say: “There’s a pattern emerging here.”
There is indeed a pattern emerging — and it is a pattern that must dismay everyone who admires the Clintons and has defended them against the charge that they are exploiting racial divisions.
But this time she violated the rhetorical rules, no doubt by mistake. It was her offhand reference to “working, hard-working Americans, white Americans” that raises the specter of old Dixie demagogues like Wallace and Lester Maddox. Was she dog-whistling to the voters of Kentucky and West Virginia?
http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2008/05/09/clinton_remarks/
Randy Newman’s Rednecks does a line about Lester Maddox:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7I1wtPUOtM
…worth a ticket.
SmileH #436 , Pancho #453 FINNS/GG dodgy figures below) & others
Obamabots say Michigan & Florida shouldn’t be seated (on flawed arguments).
First of all they will be , but probably with using Obama pressured false delegate numbers rather than the true ones including Ewdards MI & FL dele’s separately
Such a DNC decision will demolish the Obamabots arguments here & highlight the grubby Dean/Obama original decision that robbed Hillary not only of momentum into Super Tuesday but also coming out of it as still the dele leader.
We all know Obama actively campaigned in MI & FL defying DNC rules. At best MI & FL were Obama’s ‘friends’ branch staking. But no genuine Labor person believing in equity would totally disenchanise 2.278 million labor faithful & not have remedied or indeed acknowledged it still 3 months , later except Obama , the DNC (who factionally support him) and Obamabots , all of whom believe equity is dispensible when it suits your sid , such dispensible equity principles.
As to SmileH #436 , last time you misquoted me on stats , I quoted my original blog from which you’d falsely quoted (& supported my comments quoting MyClearPolitics) which demonstrated your ineptitude with maths, which you share with Pancho. Obviously still pride smarting 3 weeks later ?
Today you make another false quote of my blogs over popularl vote counts
On 22/4 PA Primary, my first blog that day I said I thought MyClearPolitics had made a error showing Hillary as a big popular count leader because my calcs showed the popular count close enough to a statistical tie (after I’d separated Edward & Obama’s FL & MI votes). I later repeated it bloging to Diogenes.that day.
FINNS /GG re Pancho #453 maths , again Pancho like last night FINNS is disingenuously giving a false mathematical picture saying Hillary rejected 69/59 MI delegate count offer. What he crudely omitted to say was Hillary won 55% to Obama/Edwards combined 40% (5% others). With 128 delegates Hillary would win a net 19 (NOT 69/59 =10) delegates over the combined Obama & Edwards totals , before looking at Edwards share
Like many Obamabots , facts yous trash maths & quotes when it suits Obama
And with MI and FL, Obama & Obamabots want to use Muabe style vote rorting
Aslo typo correction , diff incl MI/Fl on del’s total184 by 2 not 384 but 368 appro
456 Finns [It is now possible to imagine Obama at a cocktail party with Kerry, Al Gore and Michael Dukakis, sharing a laugh about gun-toting, Bible-thumping, flag-pin-wearing, small-town Americans.”]
Wrong tree; barking up
Obama doesn’t need to dumb himself down to the Channel 9 demographic. He’s a leader now, he’s not supposed to be stupid (is it a positive with GWB?), he’s supposed to be smart. Anyway the alleged ‘eltist’ tag is simply a product of the meeja. Both Obama and Hillary went to fancy universities and into law, but she went to the big end of town straight away, Obama didn’t. And she had the relative silver spoon at birth, not him. Plus, the ‘elite’ image element is not going to be a problem for Obama in the general:
Toffishness doomed John Kerry; but with Mr Obama, a child of a single mother who sometimes used food stamps, that picture is surely reversible.
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11332147
After application of the Pelosi factor – Obama takes the lead in superdelegates.
Since late last night Obama has picked up three undecided supers (Rep. Brad Miller (NC), Rep. Rick Larsen (WA), and Peter DeFazio (OR)) and one defection (Rep. Donald Payne (NJ)) bring the raw numbers to 6.5 advantage Hillary Clinton.
After application of the Pelose factor Obama leads by 1.5 delegates.
Obama 269 (262+7)
Clinton 267.5 (268.5-1)
From my flawed mahematical perspective (the parallel universe above is still harping on about its inability to count) those numbers look pretty good to me Catrina.
Man, I’d have been tired of being proven such a loser by now.
467
Catrina
Yet another little milestone eh Catrina?
That’s her last metric, Supers.
Another soundtrack for Hillary:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hp6Zx_fzpq8
Slip sliding away…the nearer your destination the more you’re slip sliding away.
A bad day is when I lie in bed and think of what might have been.
Keep the faith Pancho – I’m with you!
468
Pancho
No sense, no pain Pancho. I told you, they’re secret masochists!
The more you flog ‘em the more they come back for more.
But how can I be sure I’m not ‘facts yous trash maths & quotes when it suits Obama’ or ‘And with MI and FL, Obama & Obamabots want to use Muabe style vote rorting’.
Or even understand what that means?
KR at 469
Its the last metric – its just tipping over and probably by the end of business tomorrow he will have the raw lead too. The the pledged delegate majority, the popular vote majority (no matter how you spin it), and the most states – the only option open to Hillary Clinton is to push for a superdelegte overthrow based on the abstract argument of electability. But even that argument has an end-point which is approximately 66 super endorsements away form being taken off the table.
woops – replace ‘form’ with ‘from’
BTW – the 66 is the number of supers left following the remaining contests for Obama to clinch 2024.5.
Offtopic, but KR I’m wondering if you’ve read Gravity’s Rainbow?
Thinking you’d appreciate Pynchon’s humour of the outlandish and habit of breaking into doggerel verse.
I enjoy your posts and admire your deft and good-natured way of dealing with the more idiosyncratic posts on this forum.
416 – Nice film Billy Boy.
475
Callum
It’s one of my ALL time favourite books Callum!
Brenschluss, the moment the rocket engines cut for the parabolic descent, that free floating moment before it begins its trajectory to its final taget…that’s where we are now.
Thurs May 8:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=ApCZIQJ8trMEpXzncgSHDL9N_b4F
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AkCqFwvTRnD8kcWrbAb30c9W_b4F
Fri May 9:The Awful (cyber) Truth, also suggest mouse over date box back to May 8.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AuE.ahwFVUm5DUsm.KYS0dLd.sgF
Jen at 324: “The implications of what this really means in terms of a cultural shift in the US are actually breathtaking.”
Yes ma’am, environmental, political, social. What recently converted Obi SD supporter Bill Richardson might call The Full Enchilada!
Jv, that aggro little white ducking sure had attitude:)
Jarwohl, Herr Blogmeistre!! Hillary’s downfall was bust-a-gut stuff. Brilliant writing and expertly timed subtitles.
For those who enjoy a great film, Sebastian Koch, who played Fuhrer Hillary, is outstanding in another recent German masterwork, “The Lives of Others”, which is set from ‘84 to ’89 in East Germany when the Stasi had one in every six citizens actively engaged in spying upon their neighbours.
Yes, Callum, Thomas Pynchon and Kirri do have much in common. Only Tommy wasn’t a Soccer Pop:)
OK, just checked my spelling, it’s: Brennschluss
477
KR, glad (and not surprised) to hear it’s one of your favorites. Reading it increased my conception of what could be done in a novel. And wonderful language.
‘Combustion termination’ is certainly apt for HRC at this point in the nomination process.
EC @ 478 – Sargent in good form there EC. You’ll enjoy the opening paragraph in the Economist article linked at 466, I reckon.
480
Callum
LOL, quite!
Although I was more visualising Obama sailing high through the air!
A moment before he starts down onto McCain’s ground zero.
Going slightly off topic for a moment…
It’s extremely interesting to see that even as the word ‘inevitable’ creeps into most articles involving the Democratic Primaries… Clinton STILL has a superdelegate lead.
At this point of the game, Clinton SD’s must be staying on her ship for one or more of the following reasons:
1. ‘Once you endorse, you are obliged to stick to that endorsement’
2. Genuine belief Obama can’t win in the fall (or at least will greatly struggle)
3. Scared shitless of the Clinton’s
4. Bet hedging – if it is inevitable, no point in rubbing the salt in unless it’s really necessary.
5. Genuine loyalty (ties in to no’s 1 & 2 above)
It’s interesting because the payoff in switching sides BEFORE the race is declared would be huge if you are a member of Congress – and Obama wins in November. His team will have long memories. Of course, if you switch and by some miracle Hillary wins, you can count on being completely ignored by her and Bill for the next decade. Tough call. But interesting to look at nonetheless, in terms of the power the Clinton name holds
Clinton’s SD lead is apparently down to 6.5 now. Who wants to guess whether this prediction was on the ball or not? SD count tied within two weeks (a week ago). Considering I’ve still got a week to go, I think my odds are alright…
Ah, metaphors that work in more ways than one!
Gravity’s Rainbow sure does.
Thanks for reminding me Callum.
(Now back to the calamari and chips on the stove, one kid dredging a cartoon soundtrack from memory on the keyboard and the other packing up the kid’s monopoly.)
Catch youse all a bit later.
#468, yes, you are a loser so stop sulking
486 – You forgot the potential of having a fundriser with Bill Clinton showing up. Most of DNC members have hopes that in the future they might run for something, and that requires money.
Plus there is nothing to lose from remaining on the sidelines. There is a risk in showing one’s hand.
Shh Finns, you sound silly. I don’t think less of you because you cling to a sinking ship. Part of me respects it.
Max – fair guess, but I reckon he’ll be up at least by Monday. Counting tomorrow’s Utah add-on, the margin is 5.5. I’d assume, on current form there would be at least another couple tomorrow. If there is a weekend loll, we’ve got a chance of getting to Monday with Clinton +3.5, but I can’t see her lead lasting till Tuesday, if that long.
#487, Amigo, i have no problem with losing or on a sinking ship because i can swim. What i cannot stand is the abuses that you guys heap on Hillary day after day, regardless. And the joy that you guys derived from urging each other on to be more and more abusive of her.
Nobody deserves that, nobody. Shame on all of you.
Gold! Was it four posts earlier you decried sulking Finns?
First, Hills is a big girl and I’m pretty sure can give as good as she takes – in fact I know she can because I have watched her race to the bottom, pandering to the lowest common denominator. Here’s a good article on her opportunistic conservative populism for you: http://tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=64032fab-d36d-44b8-817c-6ba2f88f732d . If anyone decides to play such stupid politics, they deserve to be called on it.
Second, I’m sure poor Hillary ain’t so offended at an Australian blog analysing her politics. In fact I’d be pretty sure she has no idea it exists. If it makes you feel goo to play protective big brother though, go for it.
And third (before this test starts) just scanning back, there seems to have been plenty of analysis of the race by neutrals and Obama supporters, and personal abuse thrown back by you and your mate. Not actually related to much in reality, but just directed generally at “you guys”. All good from where I’m sitting, but just take a step back and a deep breath before you wanna get too offended. Go NZ
Oh, the children haven’t gone to bed yet, I see! LOL
OK, running the bath now.
Pancho @ 490 – That’s a terrific article from J Chait. It’s exactly the trick adopted by John W Howard. The politics of the lowest common denominator.
Anything else was ‘un-Australian’. Interesting to see exposed the twist to the meaning of ‘elitist’ in that style of politics too. In Aus it was the idea that any intellingent questioning of the govt is elitist and left-wing – perpetrated by over-educated latte sipping effetes (eg the attack on the ABC). Same approach lately from Hillary. Hillary and Howard – political soulmates.
“Social science analysis is the mortal enemy of conservative populism. The liberal populist sees politics as a series of quantifiable trade-offs between competing interests. The conservative populist offers an appeal that can’t be quantified: Who shares your values? Who is more manly? (James Carville: “If she gave him one of her cojones, they’d both have two.”)
Sounds like Finns has a crush on Hillary…
jv, the money shot occurs ~1;20 seconds in with respect of para one of your link to The Economist. However, allowed the whole clip to download while surfing elsewhere. Still very funny after all these years. S’pose that’s why they call ‘em classics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bgsFVqfu-rM
OK – here goes round 1 of the real presidential battle:
McCain claims that the terrorist group, Hamas, is supporting Obama’s campaign.
“McCain later repeated the Hamas smear himself, saying “It’s clear who Hamas wants to be the next President.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/08/obama-hits-hamas-smear-mc_n_100860.html
Kind of reminds me of Howard’s claim that al-Qaeda are rooting for an Obama win – maybe that’s where McCain got his idea for this latest smear.
Looks like the Repugs are gonna play the old, dirty game after all. But every smear attempt will just give Obama an opening to talk about a new style of politics.
Competition closed for the day
3 most accurate posts:
GG #379 to k/r “That I like pricking pomposity and exaggerations is no big secret.
FINNS #485 , “ yes #468 (Pancho) you are a loser so stop sulking”
FINNS #489 “the abuses that you guys heap on Hillary day after day, Shame on all of you”.
3 most elitist based posts:
the final 20 could not be separated , all equal in a collection of j/v , Pancho , Ferny & Kirri where almost all qualified for first prize except Kirri’s his being in his Obama fringe zone sphere, of bloging to simply agree with the immediately preceding Obamabot post
3 best Knob-ist posts
first , second & third all went to one post j/v 493
493
jaundiced view
Susan Faludi does a nice rap on this theme:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09faludi.html
…and it’s got the nuances right, I think. Clinton, when she had to really ditch the policy wonk and the stern matriach roles went on a testerone fueled beer hall brawling Mad Max persona. It was Hillary in the Thunderdome, and it was all to get the Bud boyz on side and to emasculate the effete uppity Nigga.
Pity that this played so contrary to all the Clintons have ever done on the race side. But what a pact with the lads she made!
But alas, ’twas all too late, and one more change of costume too many for her.
496
Noocat
Yeah, and al Zawahiri is all for McCain bombing Iran, and has said so publicly.
So the top al Qaeda guys are rooting for Macca! LOL
(Except he goes on to say it will also further weaken the great satan! Probably right there too!)
Time to get the children out the bath I see, and tuck them into bed.
#455 Greeensborough Growler
You seem to be addressing a different point, i.e., the original decision to exclude FL and MI. Okay, you disagree with it, but it was made and it clearly rendered the results of those contests useless as fair representations of voter support for each candidate. Whatever you think of the disqualification, what could bring the process into more disrepute than a last-minute backflip on it?
KR @ 498 – I like that concept of Hills breaking through the glass floor.
EC – Thanks for that old classic – I haven’t seen one of those in years. And how apt.
Gee, a got triple podium finish – what can I say?
Are you going to read to them tonight KR? – I think you know what to select for their beddy-byes edification.
498
KR, that Faludi article references Carry A Nation.
Very colourful character, viz:
Here’s a good one KR, that may educate as you lull them:
http://www.duckforpresident.com/about-book.html
Actually Noocat, Obama’s comment about the McCain/Hamas drivel was that ‘he seems to have lost his bearings’.
As we say in Oz, lost his marbles? LOL
505
Callum
What a gal! LOL
Signed hatchets! Truly a classy lady.
506
jaundiced view
That’s a bewdy: contemporary farmyard US politics for little kids.
Triton at 502
I think that GG’s position may arise from a confusion between (a) the principal called democracy, and (b) the implementation of that principal through the application of policy and procedures. Keeping in mind that this is a candidate selection process executed by a party prior to a national campaign, and that the vast majority of the officials within the Democratic Party are elected officials – the legal framework to handle voting contests is the result of a democratic process.
I think GG could focus his argument closer to the principal issues:
(a) Could DNC policy and procedure be improved when handling states that break rules of vote scheduling?
(b) What possible solutions could be put forward that reasonably reflect the voting population in FL and MI, while recognizing the operational, legal and financial constraints of the respective states?
Or, alternatively, is a potential review of the federal/state/party roles within primary processes something that should be considered? Whatever – the seating of FL and MI will be handled through the process defined by the policies and procedures – and that is democracy in action.
503
jaundiced view
Getting all those awards is an honour JV.
More Ron is never enough, eh?
Hi Triton,
You are damn right I disagree with the decision. We all understand what we disagree about. My contention is the process is a farce and is an abomination that should not be allowed to stand. Your contention is that these are the rules that applied at the time.
Cheers.
509
Catrina
Conversely Catrina, GG may just ram it down ya bleedin’ neck because HE SAYS SO!
Now, have you written that fine point down?
KR at 510
With you, JV, and Pancho getting all of the media coverage – hows a girl like me going to get elected?
513
Catrina
Take ya turn girl! When you’ve been through the same arguments for the trillionth time, as HRC slip slides away, and just when you think it can’t get any more innane, then wham!
More Ron will descend on you too!
KR,
Your chick magnet qualities have me in awe.
A man that pedals miles with his children, attends their soccer training, baths and feeds them in preparation for bed time story telling,
Absolutely, no male has ever done these things before.
So much for a Uniter. So much for new politics. Like their boss, they are continuing the Bittergate syndrome, especially for Ms. Brazile, she is showing her true colour.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/opinion/09krugman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Ouch!
Home equity withdrawals (Greenspan’s ATM) is kaput, so:
Government and agency statistics illustrate this troubling trend. The Federal Reserve reported Wednesday that Americans’ credit card debt jumped 6.7% in the first quarter of this year to $957.2 billion, This spike comes despite the fact that nearly one in three banks is tightening guidelines for credit cards.
…6.7%!
That’s 20% p.a. growth in credit card debt.
Well something’s growing, it sure ain’t GDP.
SLip of the finger, nearly 30%! pa
#515 GG – not to mention having Catrina starry eyed. chick magnate indeed, having me in wow!
515
Greeensborough Growler
When Mrs Kirribilli is out of town, a man’s gotta do what a man’s gotta do.
Today was perfect except for No1 son’s mild concussion from yesterday.
But with No2 we rode out through the mangroves and watched the Banded Stilts in the tidal lagoon which was as smooth as a mirror, holding the blue sky like a giant bowl of mercury.
It’s hard, but someone has to do it.
William, brilliant youtube!
Just for you KR,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9OGfBGOCpk
KR – What a contrast. Outside one minute admiring the Banded Stilts, next minute inside here contending with a small flock of Masked Boobies.
523
jaundiced view
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!LOL
and muttonbirds
JV,
You Obamaphiles are in to self reflection.
Good for you.
Arrived home this evening to find the May edition of “The Monthly” has arrived (such an elitist rag!). Who’s photo adorns the front cover? The Kid of course! The lead article is by Noel Pearson on Obama.
I haven’t read it thoroughly yet but a quick scan reveals that, unfortunately, Pearson spends most of the time spruiking Shelby Steele’s view of Obama.
Yawn….where did Noel go wrong? Ah well. Nice cover still….and there’s an article by Robert Manne on the 20/20 summit – and one by Don Watson.
FG,
Finally, a male who says he buys the magazine for the pictures.
517
KR, I think you’ll find that’s an annualised rate of 6.7%
Your quote appears to have come from this article on CNN Money.
Like a lot of main stream reporting it doesn’t clearly define its quoted statistics.
The actual report from the Federal Reserve however does define it clearly as ‘Percent change at annual rate’.
The four preceding quarters in 2007 have annualised rates of 5.4, 6.8, 8.6, and 8.6 respectively. 2006 overall was 6.1% while 2005 was 3.1%. So 2006 was when things really started to accelerate.
Cbet Board Odds:
The Kid…………………………….. 1.80 (firms 10c)
Johnny Bomb-Bomb…………….. 2.70 (drifts 5c)
Brutusina ………………………….. 5.50 (death-rattle drifter, 50c)
IASbet for keys to 1600 Penn. (tenancy begins Jan, 2009)
Democratic Party………………….. 1.53
Republican Party…………………… 2.50
ECbet:
Odds of Dr. Adam Carr chiming in with “jockey talk” about how Senator McCain is a special to win in November…………..London to a brick-on.
529
Callum
Thanks Callum, it read like the last quarter and that blew my socks off! LOL
Although I was slightly distracted by the kids at the time (you can make assumptions about which ones!)
Still a bad trend that more than doubles in 2 years.
Overall a very lousy picture, housing on the skids and bankruptcies on a screamer.
Thanks for picking that up, it would have stuck in my memory banks and been recycled most likely! LOL
Ecky: you taking bets on that?
I’m waiting for another lashing of Herr Doktor, especially the one that goes something like the Supers are too afraid to back the white chick or else they’re going to be called racists.(Funny how that cross dressing disguise syndrome or CDDS is infectious, eh?)
And more Ed Koch?
Please?
EC,
Do you actually bet, or just quote prices.
A punting person would say that the odds on the Republican Party are pretty good. Only because there are bound to be fluctuations in the coming months which will create lay off options.
The form says the Republicans win more than they lose. They also have a formidable jockey in McCain.
The Democrats are carrying a bit of extra weight. No black candidate or filly has ever won the race.
The Obama horse can apparently talk very well. Has not been converted to actual running form. query?
Finally some movement at RCP. For the first time since Wednesday they’ve moved the SD count. Hillary’s lead has dropped from +11 to +9.
Still no WV polls.
KR @ 531, you’re welcome. Agreed that it is a very worrying trend.
And in relation to actually placing bets and the commentary of Herr Doktor, here is my favorite comment from himin response to my posting in the same thread @ 26. Of course, somewhat vulgar of me at that time to give wager amounts.
GG #533
Had the elitist view Obamabots not been reflecting their mirrors at each other all day and instead seen the real people they’d know in racing parlance about Obama 1.80 at odds on , dont back odds on shots and don’t run up steps backwards
the latter seems the Obamabot views on principles about FL & MI
Pancho @ 490.
Just got through The New Republic article you linked. Agree with JV that it’s very good.
Makes me think that the reason that the Republicans are voting for her is not just simply to stymie Obama but also because she is now speaking their language.
Ferny, if you poke around RCP, there is one WV poll, showing a 60/20 split in favour of Clinton. A poll from Kentucky indicates a 30-odd point point margin her way.
FINNS (update)
you’ll recall you won one of the most accurate awards today
FINNS #485 , “ yes #468 (Pancho) you are a loser so stop sulking”
Pancho #497 Go NZ(against the Aussies in the Rugby League test match tonight
Guess Pancho is going to be sulking more, Aussies thrashed NZ 28 to 12
There is WV poll from today on RCP (TSG Consulting) Clinton 63, Obama 23 Clinton +40.0 !
Thanks Blindoptimist – it will give the Clinton fans on here something to crow about next week. Only fair. Not that it will change anything.
It is truly bizarre that supporters of a black candidate can be labeled “elitist”. It could make my Maori blood boil. But then, I know I’m backing the winner because he is the best candidate, not because of his skin tones.
Ron,
For our Obama friends, it is very much careful what you wish for.
GG at 511
The Clinton Campaign statement on the Four State Pledge
To summarise the rules of the game back in August 2007 (and here I’m quoting Howard Dean) – The 2008 Delegate Selection Rules adopted by the full DNC at its August 2006 meeting clearly provide that only four states – Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina may hold their respective contest prior to February 5, 2008. The [Rules and Bylaws Committee's] findings of Non-Compliance include a 100% loss of pledged and unpledged delegates.
Now – here is the thing I don’t get GG. Your describing the process as a farce and an abomination. Ok – lets say I agree. It’s still the process and their is a democratic mechanisms to change that process and that could happen in the Rules and Bylaws Committee meeting at the end of the month, or through the application of policy and procedure during the convention itself. What you are seeing is the application of a non-perfect system in action – and huffing and puffing about it does not change the process. However, if you, or Ron, or anyone else have solid constructive recommendations on how to handle things – put them forward. I would be interested in hearing them and I’m guessing others would be interested as well.
Well friends and foes,
i am off for a week in the wilderness with no media/ internet etc so I won’t know a thing.
look forward to coming back and finding that no matter what crap the old guard throws around, the change is bigger than you or I.
Take care all PBers.
Take care Jen!
Betfair odds
Obama 1.85 (firming slightly)
McCain 2.80 (easing slightly)
Clinton 12.50 (way out)
Same picture as other sites, only (as usual) better odds.
Everyone knows HRC is gone now.
However the degree of certainty about November exhibited by some PBers seems to be far from universal.
Superdelegate update – Clinton picks up 1 super.
Rep. Chris Carney (PA) has jumped on board with an endorsement of Hillary Clinton. This brings the raw DCW total to 7.5 advantage Hillary, while the post=Pelosi number shift to 0.5 advantage Obama.
Obama: 269 (262+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
Oh – and gaffhook-
am taking the canned cheeseburger with me just so as I retain some connection to American culture and all that is Hillary.
Cheers
xx
Catrina,
I have that ability to step back, think about things and identify a crock when I see it. The process that eliminated Michigan and Florida is a crock.
I understand all the tos and fros, it is just I have a different opinion to you. Deal with it.
GG at 550
Oh, I’m dealing with it just fine.
Thanks for asking.
The Wall St Journal goes all medieval on Hillary’s ass:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121028913821779151.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks
Love this:
“[Democrats] hated [Bill] for their loss of Congress in 1994, but they tolerated Dick Morris and welfare reform to keep the presidency in 1996.
The price was that they had to put their ethics in a blind Clinton trust. Whitewater and the missing billing records, Webb Hubbell, cattle futures and “Red” Bone, the Lincoln Bedroom, Johnny Chung and the overseas fund-raising scandals, Paula Jones and lying under oath, Monica and the meaning of “is.” …
The difference between now and the 1990s, however, is that this time the Clinton foes aren’t the “vast right-wing conspiracy.” This time the conspirators are fellow Democrats. It took 10 years, but you might say Democrats have finally voted to impeach.”
Ferny @ 541, I’m all for fair play.
I think that Obama will be able to appeal to the Clintonocrats once the dust has settled on the primary process. He is proving he has the mettle to lead: he has calmness, dignity, political courage, intelligence and warmth. The fact that he literally embodies what can be great about America will be almost irresistable. His being is his message: America can change for the better.
Kirri
#532
“I’m waiting for another lashing of Herr Doktor (GG) , especially the one that goes something like the Supers are too afraid to back the white chick or else they’re going to be called racists”
GG , Kirri j/v Ferny & Pancho, the elitisit hip hops with books with a far left looney philosophy containing a racist idealogy strain. Its always them that accuse have the secret feelings
When you look at the NYT article quoted by FINNS #516 the US Obama supporters use the same racist slime attacks
Ron at 554
Oh please – I want to be elitist too!
Good Evening Bludgers
Been in the sticks for two days and kept away from the media. So Hillary still hasn’t quit, all her supporters think Michigan and Florida should be counted (despite Hill signing a pledge not to count them) and the SDs still haven’t cut down the rotting carcass that is Hillary’s ambition to be POTUS. Anything else happened
Diogenes at 556
That’s it in a nutshell.
you are all starting to sound like americans. take a good hard look at yourselves.
“Do you actually bet, or just quote prices.”
Far be it from me to be presumptuous, Growler, but I’ll take that as a question. Political betting markets provide an indication of how punters think things will turn out. They are not infallible but in recent times on “Group One” races, I’ve observed them to be wrong only once in the last dozen or so starts. That was 2006 when the odds of the Dems gaining a US Senate majority was around 4/1. Check out the homepage of HuffPo before the Mid-Terms if you want the exact figure.
So far I’ve wagered 2 bottles of primo plonk on the present campaign. One is kaput(Brutusina’s drop off date) and I bet Edgecliffe Chris another that the Dems would not lose the Alaskan Electoral College contest by more than 10 points. Confident of “breaking square” on the vino ventures.
Quite happy to have an interest with you on the November result with the loser pay-palling the PB account. How about if GOP win the presidency I pay PB $100, and if Dems win in November you pay PB $60? This is very close in round figures to the current IAS market quoted at #530.
William can’t lose and either you or I get to savour some schadenfreude. And that’s something we’re both into, so everyone’s a winner on the day!
How say ye, GG?
#555, [Ron at 554 Oh please - I want to be elitist too!] – there was a song called “Are you old enough?”, no no no no “Are you black enough?”
i suppose you are as you obliterated New Orleans
Ron, maybe I’ve been marking too many undergraduate essays recently (elitist that I am) but I found myself mentally underlining the following phrase in red and making a marginal note: “What does this mean!”
“[Ron] Its always them that accuse have the secret feelings”
But then me and my homies are all “elistist hip hops”.
The Finnigans at 560
Its a ‘C’, not a ‘K’.
541
Ferny Grover
It may be Deliverance country, but it won’t deliver anything but a day’s headline for Hillary.
EC
Kenny Howard would say about an odds on like Obama ready to get smashed ,
put away your glass’s. Neither London nor the brick are worth it.
Try US poker online for money
561
Robert Bollard
LOL
ya crack me up RB!
FINNS
#560
Evening FINNS
No wonder Pancho ( a New Zealand football person,) was sulking , when you mentioned a Barry Hall punch , he was embarassed thinking it must be an elitist far lefist left magazine he’d missed buying
EC,
1. I do not bet on things that talk. Never have and not starting now.
2. I pay my dues to William and your projected contributions are measly.
Personally, I am appalled at the mentality that because I have a different opinion, that the only way to settle matters is via a bet. My principles and opinions are inviolate. Similarly I respect others.
536 Ron
I have no dog in this fight. But it seems pretty clear to me that no matter how you cut it up, Obama has a real and growing lead over Clinton, and doesn’t look like losing it.
All things considered, Clinton’s race is pretty well over. The only real question left is will she put her personal feelings and ego aside and support Obama, (or at least not obstruct him), during the presidential race proper.
#562 – so it’s Cirribilli not Kirribilli. always thought that there was something not right with that man.
551
Catrina
Yeah, I thought you’d get that! (Stuffed down your neck, that is)
How predictable.
(A bit like the Democratic nomination really.)
I do like it when you put all the facts up but the kiddies just keep saying the earth is flat, nah,nah!
#566, Hiya Ronnie, so in cricket term, Pancho was hit for a SEX?
GG?
“Similarly I respect others.”
chortle!
That’s the line of the day folks.
Robert
#561
In St Albans one can be an elitist , its a superior state of mind re others & consequential expectations, not location or worth or job and you know it Robert
despite wishing to barb me cause I’m pro Hillary. Your claims to be an elitist are yours not mine , I’ve only ever agreed with your admission you may sound
pompous (saying you did sound a triffle pompous)
And I stand by the quote from work in the field
GG @ 567. There’s a phrase for the philosophy outlined in your post. It was very big among a certain stripe of politicians about the turn of the millenium. ‘Ugly and unAustralian.’
Not made any better by the faux-horrified tones after the obvious implicit challenge in the question, “Do you actually bet, or just quote prices?”
But there is at least one implicit assertion in yr self-important post that can actually be tested: that you pay William significantly more than $100 per given unit of time, for the maintenance of the site. William: care to confirm? Or do you regard privacy of contributions (even for nom-de-plume protected individuals) as an inviolate principle?
GG, you should take up EC’s offer. McCain spent years in a POW camp, of course he’s going to win.
sorry KR, this is the line of the day:
” I pay my dues to William and your projected contributions are measly.”
Just Me
#568
Your opinion is fine ‘Just Me’ for you to hold for the reasons you said. Today in
my #424 blog (2nd half) I gave 5 detailed resaons including psephological why I think Hillary should continue. If you’ve read them fairly , and still hold your view thereafter , I have absolutely no problem with anyone having an alternative viewpoint
Robert Bollard,
Can you give us a Marxian analysis of the Democratic Primary Race?
SimonH,
I’ll show you mine, if you show yours.
SimonH,
Show a little humour old son. Lightens the mood.
Robert Boland ,
and also Robert , it was a triffle discourtious of you being a History person to challenge me on Trueman’s nuke use & Hillary’s nuke comment late at nite ,(to which I said I’d put rebuttal next day as I’d done work on Trueman over the years) and then I spend a few hours going over my notes & bloging a different view ….then silence.
Perhaps you didn’t see my blogs but if you did, well…& that not elitist either, courtesy
OK all you fans of President Bartlett. Remember that episode of West Wing where they had trouble with a goat in the White House? They were trying to get a photo op of the President with the goat.
What was the name of the goat??
give it to him ron.
Robert, The Rosetta Stone would have been far easier to decipher:)
My best mate is a “reflex marker”. Can’t help himself, he’s a subby.
Some time ago while visiting us, he corrected my daughter’s spelling on a fridge-magneted shopping list. One minute he was walking into the kitchen, the next, like a junky whipping out a fit, his handily placed breast pocket click biro had done the deed. In the fullness of time this proved to be a grave tactical error on his part, becuase the level of “gentle” domestic sledging chez nous, is of a particularly high standard.
Wondrously, he hasn’t attempted anything similar on subsequent visits, even though she writes out atrociously spelled “gee-up” shopping lists and “absent-mindedly” leaves them places where the keenly scanning eyes of a gun subby could not but be drawn in their direction.
GG compares PB with ‘Groundhog Day’ (providing a lesson on the ‘classic Bill Murray film’ in case we don’t get his point, duh). The point is, HRC keeps on and on and on and on and on and on and on (just as in ‘Groundhog Day’, to labor the point like GG) demonstrating her sad and unfathomable ambition for the White House. One of the best explanations of her pathological desire for power is Anne Applebaum’s column, syndicated in The Age, which says in part:
The malaise that the endless Democratic primary campaign has inspired across the political spectrum was summed up by writer Nora Ephron, who described the ongoing contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as an “unending last episode of Survivor. They’re eating rats and they’re frying bugs and they’re frying rats and they’re eating bugs; no one is ever going to get off the island and I can’t take it any more!”
And Ephron said that a month ago. For the article, see:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/hillary-its-not-about-you-so-hang-up-your-hat/2008/05/08/1210131165200.html
Superdelegate update for the DCW: Obama +1.
DNC John Gage (MD) has endorsed Obama. This brings the raw DCW total to 6.5 advantage Hillary, while the post Pelosi number puts Obama ahead by 1.5.
Obama: 270 (263+7)
Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)
Catrina, love your work.
r/Ron @ 581 ["as I’d done work on Trueman over the years"]
Is that Freddie you mean r/Ron? A great cricketer he was too.
FREDDIE TRUEMAN O.B.E.. Born 1931 Died 2006. RIP Fred
Apres,
Aren’t you so glad yo got that bon mot out.
Your point.
Ron at 577
Back on the 29 January you said:
But now your saying that the Hillbillies (your words) should continue.
Sorry, but I’m confused.
GG: “My principles and opinions are inviolate. Similarly I respect others.”
Of course, Growler. One keeps forgetting just what a paragon of blog etiquette you are.
jv @ 588,
I don’t know what’s going on out there at the moment!
Noone knows the name of the West Wing goat??
In the meantime, Hillary’s lead has been clipped by one more from +9 a couple of hourse ago to +8.
Hang on, is that the same Trueman? Surely not. I didn’t know Americans played cricket then…. Perhaps it’s The Truman Show, in which everything is possible but nothing is real.
571
The Finnigans
” #566, Hiya Ronnie, so in cricket term, Pancho was hit for a SEX?”
Just saw your post , still smiling at the wit , yes FINNS
By the way for your brilliant forensic files , re Pancho and Sinatra’s gafe when calling Aussie journos ‘hookers’ , well one Rugby forward position is called
‘Hooker’ and perhaps Pancho recovering from the aussies win over his NZ teeam may reflect on that re Obama
Surely Hillary’s staying in for the money?
Simon, I know you mean well, but I’m not very keen on commenters pressuring each other to donate. Since you ask, GG has generously donated to this site on multiple occasions, but that doesn’t mean everybody else has to.
I “barb” you Ron for incoherence not for being a Hillaryphile. Anyway my problem with your “elitism” tag has nothing to do with me living in St Albans (though I playfully pointed that out to you in a previous post).
The accusation of “elitism” in the US, as in Australia, is a political device to persuade a section of the working class to do the will of the boss who likes the footy and likes a beer and is therefore “one of them” (unlike the clever commy bastards who want them to look outside the cultural box manufactured for them by capital). The impeccably proletarian cultural warriors of Quadrant, Andrew Bolt et al – all with their subsistence salaries paid by Rupert Murdoch, the workers’ friend – have been telling us for over ten years that the left are elitist and that, in contrast, it is they who speak for the “real” Australia, for “Howard’s Battlers”, for “aspirational voters”. In the US a similar narrative would have us believe that Hillary, an Ivy League graduate with personal squillions, is the darling of the working class but that Obama is elitist because he doesn’t like waffles.
You can view, if youn want, the American working class as a bunch of ten pin bowling Homer Simpsons who love flag pins and cheese fries and want to nuke Iran. I know they are more complex than that. I know what they’ve done historically (I spent today teaching students about sit-down strikes). Yes I know how far they are from that today. But that will change. In the meantime, the real elitist is the cynical politician who tells Homer to concentrate on the cheese fries – not the one who asks him to raise his eyes.
j/v
#588
now you instructed K/R not to talk to me at the start of the night &
you’ve breached your own elitist hip hop on books rules j/v , off for penance for you to recite 100 times i love Hillary but not the barbarian Ron
Hillary nukes , Truman nukes and you get Freddie Trueman not POTUS.Yes there is a nuke connection if you’d met him , whilst he didn’t relate to the club in the 2nd par. ,he regarded beer & pranks with nuke energy abandon
Catrina @ 590 – Yes, all six lanes on the road to Damascus were blocked for hours when that conversion occurred.
598 Robert Bollard
“the real elitist is the cynical politician who tells Homer to concentrate on the cheese fries – not the one who asks him to raise his eyes.”
Now THAT’s profound RB. Inspiring!
How’s about running for VP?!
EC @ 591.
Shush! It is a secret.
Actually the two Trumans had a connection. The POTUS Truman had been a member of the Klan in the ’20s [along with another 5 million white protestant men), and Freddie was a force behind keeping blacks and Pakistanis out of the Yorkshire team. Gladstone Small (a Sheffield lad) had to play for Derbyshire.
r/R [now you instructed K/R not to talk to me at the start of the night]
Que?
Robert
#598
2 cultural warriors using ‘elitism’ from different left perspectives I see , but I do not see it. You see ‘elitism’ from your ’socialist political viewpoint used by the neocons against the ‘left’ to win the working class by fraud.
I being centre left/centre right within the Labor Party (depending on policy), are not only far to the right of your ’socialist left’ positions but importantly I ignore the neocons as fruitcakes absolutely and concentrate on the “snotty educated political correct pretend Labor left” who ALSO regard the working class & their disadvantage as people they see on the TV without interst in practicle /equitable social improvements/solutions. So your last par. sentence was false based on your misunderstanding of someone else’s stance
603 RB – [the two Trumans had a connection]
Excellent work there RB.
Gladstone Small was a gentleman cricketer too. I heard Gladstone was in line to be the Pakistan cricket coach before the current one, Geoff Lawson, got it, because Gladstone would be so hard to strangle.
As a regular reader (but irregular poster) can I just thank all here for giving the primaries a local pulse.
As the risk of straying into a Ron like ramble I’m like to share with ya’ all my journey to becoming an Obamabot (I’m reclaiming the word!).
Let me start by saying I love Bill. He is just one of the most gifted politicians I’ve seen in my life time. Sure he has a few weaknesses – tubby girls with big hair and teeth – I don’t get it – but to each there own.
After years of GWB taking the entire world backwards at a fast pace I was desperate for anyone credible to step up to the POTUS plate. When Hilary took a shot I was happy, sure she wasn’t Bill, but he did seem to be in the back left of frame a fair bit. More importantly I thought she could win – which was the most important thing.
Then Obama came along. I thought this made its interesting, bit of a warm up for the Kid – maybe he can take it to the next level in 2012 (or 2016 more likely). I was impressed at the way he could work a crowd but expected him to drop out early.
Then he took Iowa. I put it down to the caucus process and assumed Hilary would be back on track once people could express their opinion in the privacy of a voting booth. It sort of happened in New Hampshire but did not quite roll onto Super Tuesday as expected.
I listened to the kid a bit more. He didn’t just give a good speech, he was running a smarter campaign than Hilary – he was smarter than Hilary – starting from well behind he had caught up.
I jumped ship. Compared to GWB, Clinton is a fantastic option – but Obama is even better – much better.
Then Obama fell into the eight week purgatory leading up to and after the Penn Primary. It was always going to be Clinton’s last chance to change the mood, the “narrative”. She got the result needed in Penn but then failed, dismally, to convert the week.
It is all over Obama has won. And, after initially being a Clinton supporter, I think it is a superior outcome. Obama will change the POTUS map in the same way that he has come from nowhere last year.
“snotty educated political correct pretend Labor left”
The hanky panky set.
Picked like a nose.
How do our resident cricket buffs rate the future prospects of the brilliantly named young Indian batsman Napoleon Einstein?
You do the hanky panky,
And you turn around,
that’s what it’s all about.
608
codger
hey Codge, if you could, how about translating Ron’s rambles into english for us?
(runs off laughing….)
You lot are as hard to get answers out of as my uni students.
OK, I’ll relent – but you’ll have to work for it. The name of the West Wing’s goat is found here (check the final paragraph):
http://westwing.bewarne.com/fourth/412gunsbutter.html
Go on Codger – be the first
609
William Bowe
You’ve got to be kidding!
As long as he NEVER tries to play in Russia, he should be fine, and oh yeah, he should stay away from gravity waves!
Wiiliam @ 609,
Went to Uni with a a pair of twins called Hydrogen and Atomic. Their Australianised names were Heidi and Tommy.
True Story.
Been the butt of quite a few jokes around here Ferny! LOL
I’ll behave now KR
Napoleon Einstein – Right-arm offbreak
Fancy name – but – chucker
WB #609 If he was a bowler it would be good – lightening quick with an ability to outflank opponents. But then great batsmen are usually short-arsed, like Napoleon and Bradman.
For all you arguing about elitism.
http://www.crowetoons.com/cartoons.php?a=fs¤t_key=1717
Einstein invented the theory of relaltives.
PS – just realised: Frederick Bollard, dropped from the St George side in 1928 to make way for the young Bradman. His son Donald (yours truly’s father) studied nuclear physics at Sydney Uni in the ’50s. Fred’s father (name withheld as it wasn’t Mr Bollard) was of French descent.
I am Napoleon Einstein!
ROTFLOL
Yes, there is a God!
GG, I’ve just rediscovered the theory of relatives. It’s the unifying theory of everything!
RB,
You pay the bills.
So Robert Boland
#605
the argument put did not suit your pre thought expectations , the ’socialists’ I’ve debated before are usually more conviction slanted
I defiance of PB super numbers, ABC news in the USA have pushed Obama into the lead.
Obama 267
Clinton 265
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/obama-now-takes.html
Work
#607
“my journey to becoming an Obamabot (I’m reclaiming the word!).”
You cann’t reclaim what has already been bestowed on you lot. And further with a smile GG, alerted Obamabots a month ago that the 600,000 circulation Sunday Age had said Obamabot’s creater was from the Hillary supporting side.
So you’re too late ‘Work’
Catrina,
This number fetish (all good). Why?
Goodnight all. And to Ron: Ocelot supporting raptors, using elitist where we all know you support Hillary and we are. Therefore.
Frederick Bollard, dropped from the St George side in 1928 to make way for the young Bradman. His son Donald (yours truly’s father) studied nuclear physics at Sydney Uni in the ’50s. Fred’s father (name withheld as it wasn’t Mr Bollard) was of FRENCH descent.
I am Napoleon Einstein!
next you’ll be saying the French town of the French descendent was called ‘Obama’
Catrina @ 626
Good news. I’d expect the trickle to turn into a flood once the SD are sure that Clinton has been disarmed. I wonder how many super’s the Clampett’s have a dirt file on.
Ron says..
“You cann’t (sic) reclaim what has already been bestowed on you lot”
That is the general idea of “reclaiming” a pejorative.
Greeensborough Growler at 628
What’s with the ‘eee’ ?
The fetish is something that is good or bad – it is just a measure grounded in policy – and when you play the game you play within the rules (and yes, those rules have lots of twists and turns – its not like something is black and white – instead its about really understanding the rules of the game, the opportunities, the strategies and mechanisms that the rules enable. It is a game – and it is a democratically established game. I mean, just between you and me – don’t you love a good game – when you have a couple of opponents that know what they are doing, when one crosses the moral lines and makes a kill, its still within the rules, the game moves on …
Don’t be a wimp – play the game.
GG
Clearly Robert Boland , an Obama supporter & admitted on this site ’socialist’
has come onto this site to confuse the ‘elitist’ terminology by sabotage to assist his pro Obama colleagues
We know the special precious set are the snotty far leftist left hip hop with books dreamy , elitist brigade , not interested in working class realistic Labor Party policy implementation.
these are NOT to be confused by Robert’s disingenuous ’socialist’ perspectives where the neocons call all ‘left’ people ‘elitist’ but we ignore the rodent set so their labels are irrelevant. Robert you were ‘wicked’ in your pro Obama ploy
I would not like to think the elitist wing of the Obamabots have escaped their title , which they so secretly adore
631 WTR [I wonder how many super’s the Clampett’s have a dirt file on.]
I’d say the SD’s own dirt files on the Clampetts would be bigger in most cases, given the family’s history of behaviour at large.
Ron at 634
I object to the following:
I’ve scratching and digging for this title for a couple of weeks now and you, GG, and the Finns have been ignoring my requests. But if they do come around and grant me the title – doesn’t this make you an elitist as well? After all, back February you said:
?
Hi Catrina,
The “eee” is a secret only known to regular bloggers. If I tell you, you have buy me a Christmas present.
Fetishes/Radishes whatever turns you on.
I chomp on morality wimp burgers.
Greeensborough Growler at 637
You know, you have a habit of ducking difficult questions – but even so, if I were to go on a road trip, and I had to select someone for the role of the guy in the passenger seat, you would be up there in the top three – but to get to number one – you need to show some spunk and put back some opinionated answers.
Catrina
you didn’t make it into the Hall of Fame in that wing of the Obamabots.
Unlike you lot I always listen to opposing views (at the time raised about Obama) & then research them and found Obama was a phony with a harmony message that was ‘Rev Wright’ volcanic , Ayer judgment like & a Senate record that a sham , whereas you lot bought the item & have been hypnotised ever since against reality…something you lot are still in a dreamy daze about
Catrina sends some virtual spinach to GG.
Ron at 639
So if I get this right … you were pro Obama back at the beginning of the year, but stuff happened – namely revelations about ‘Rev Wright’ and ‘Ayer’, and this moved you from Obama to Clinton. Just so I understand where your coming from – is it just these two things or is there anything else (but please keep the topics to ‘headline’ length).
“snotty educated political correct pretend Labor left”
“snotty far leftist left hip hop with books dreamy”
“which they so secretly adore”
KR @ 611 ‘We are all Biily Bunters now’
I am but clearly it is a work in progress…and that’s another $20 btw… Ferny what can I say.
r/Ron – I believe some of these now old news items you ‘mention’ are addressed in this WSJ article. I suggest you read it and reflect on who is dreaming:
“The Clinton Divorce”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121028913821779151.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks
Slowly but surely, these Prisoners of Bill and Hill are now walking away, urging Mrs. Clinton to leave the race. Chuck Schumer damns her with faint support by saying any decision is up to her. Columnists from the New York Times, which endorsed her when she looked inevitable, now demand that she exit so as not to help John McCain. With Mr. Obama to ride, they no longer need the Arkansas interlopers.
Catrina,
What’s ducking?
I know I want to keep my contributions light and easy.
Road trips, EC and KR are better yodellers.
Opinions are like arseholes. Every one has one.
jaundiced view at 643
Yes, but, there are sill the old folks in the Congress who need extra help and attention. They just has senior moment and pencilled up a petition to the other supers backing Ron’s argument.
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=7597
(with corrections)
jaundiced view at 643
Yes, but, there are still the old folks in the Congress who need extra help and attention. They just had a senior moment and pencilled up a petition to the other supers backing Ron’s argument.
http://www.hillaryclinton.com/news/release/view/?id=7597
GG (e3) at 644
Ducking is an effect commonly used in radio and pop music, especially dance music. It is an effect where the level of one signal is reduced by the presence of another signal, through the use of side chain compression. A typical application is to automatically lower the level of a musical background track when a voice-over starts, and to automatically bring the level up again when the voice-over stops (in Movies and on radio-broadcasts). It can also be used to achieve a “pumping” effect which can clearly be heard in “Call On Me” by Eric Prydz, and “Hung Up” by Madonna.
Catrina @ 641 – Speaking generally, often a large increase in a core daily medication for some chemical imbalances can affect the personality and outlook of the patient. The first thing to go is the sense of humour, and any broad external outlook. There are errors in judging the relative significance of events, and a tendency to focus inward on small things.
j/v the dream is Obama supporters believing Obama’s 2 ‘dream’ messages & not EVEN questioning either of them here. The first, racial harmony you bought at Philly because you didn’t believe Wright was a whaco, but he proved he was aat the Press Club & Obama 70% disowned him for it. So Obama’s harmony message
is tainted & is was nonsense, you still believe it. US Primary voters don’t, look at the demographics. The 2nd dream Wahington lobbyists/pork barrelling etc(admirable), has never been quantified by either Obama or you guys cause you don’t know ! And it won’t realistically happen. Now how about quantifying the 2nd dream & tell me, so in 2010 it can be audited
Catrina @ 646 – That letter’s a forlorn plea isn’t it? It’s got about as much conviction as a lawyer’s plea in the local court on behalf of a puppy strangler.
P.S. with respect to my comment at #645, I should not that all of the signatories are existing Clinton allies – so I guess its not really news.
jaundiced view at 650
It is interesting to note that this letter represents 15 members of Congress out of 79 members who have already endorsed her. Does this mean that the remaining 64 exiting Clinton endorsers are have moved to the fence?
The final paragraph of the WSJ (now one of Murdoch’s) article linked at 643 is a doozy:
The difference between now and the 1990s, however, is that this time the Clinton foes aren’t the “vast right-wing conspiracy.” This time the conspirators are fellow Democrats. It took 10 years, but you might say Democrats have finally voted to impeach.
Ron at 649
Do you intent to answer my question at 641?
652 Catrina -[Does this mean that the remaining 64 exiting Clinton endorsers are have moved to the fence?]
Well spotted. It’s hard not to draw that inference isn’t it? If ever she needed a show of support it’s right now, and if 64 out of 79 of ‘her’ SD’s in Congress haven’t signed it’s worse than not having the letter at all. Maybe the 64 were ‘unavailable’ or ‘on leave’, or ‘on urgent business with constituents’, or ‘taking an important call’ when the letter came around to be signed.
Anyway, g’night all
jaundiced view at 655
Yes, as GG hinted, and you exemplified in you comment, there are better candidates for a road trip. In the meantime, the GOP are stepping up to the real race. Here is the latests attempt to take the kid down.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7Yd80tXs_4
Robert & Catrina
Have to mention both of you as one Robert lead to the other Catrina so to speak. Robert’s missing take on dual “elitism” wings reminded me of prioritys so instead of tomorrow , ‘tonight’ was appropriate to put some on the ground reality & less theory & more people orientated to some equity related policy docs , great adv. having others worry about typos fullstops syntax etc so unimportant in comparison. So enough of that for the nite & you’ve bloged since re #641 asking me a question
Catrina , given the venom of your numerous personal ‘Ron’ directed blogs and your declared total for Obama , I don’t think with respect you’re interested. Now
my good friends GG & the FINNS will now wonder why I continue now writing & I’m sure they’re 99.99% right, but ? some converted people may just think again
IF you really want to understand then 4 or 5 lines is cheap equity philosophy.
Starters re-read my #605 , perhaps you missed both principles & the symbolism
of Robert (a wicked admitted but older generation ’socialist’ still fighting the neocons from the extreme opposite zone to him & still seeing their 1960’s ‘elitist’ labelling of ALL on the ‘left’. He’s still fighting old cultural wars & forgotten Labor won that battle…Bill Clinton in the US and Hawke. Keating & Rudd in ‘oz’. That neocon ‘right’ ‘elitist’ garbage Labor can & has easily now countered.
The current ‘cultural wars’ are within the ‘left’ broadly and also within the ‘left’ of Labor for control of the Party. Between those now in control the A/ ‘realists’ who believe winning is number 1/ plus keeping core equity policys including practical social , welfare & indigenous ones and ditching the 20% less important (to people’s lives), accepting the reality of Globalisation , Cororate business, financial markets etc but using reality Globisalisation etc to achieve the above equity objectives , to win office, to win vs
B/ the impractical idealistic dreamers (often “ELITIST” view based, whose priority is not the core equity Labor policys anyway, but whose priority is the 20% less important (to people’s lives), part of which is their politically correct & ‘fluff’ impractical idealism & symbolism stuff re welfare, social & indigenous matters, plus anti Globalisation , anti US Alliance etc & anti corporate business and who ARE happy to sit in opposition letting a John Howard destroy the country & workers standards like workchoices rather than concede their 20% ‘fluff’ stuff. There are plenty of your colleagues that fit B/ or are to the left of the Labor party.
For mine , Hillary fits A and Obama fits B/. Now if you wish to quote me from the above par. , quote A/ and B/ fully to avoid distortions. My research found Obama lacking both electability & core policy per A/ whilst Obama fitted B/ less electability & less core equity policy but plenty of ‘fluff’ stuff. As a bonus for my decision for Hillary, my research found Obama had numerous skeletons including Wright , Ayers, Rezko , nuke threats agianst Iran & Pakistan , a dismal US Senate record (despite his ’spin’ site) , taking huge PAC & Lobbyists money for this campaign, etc etc. Now Catrina , I’ve succeeded , you won’t ask me a question again
Now GG & FINNS (i) should I next time give a one liner answer and (ii) have I missed some Labor reasons or adverse Obama reasons here my Senior, learned & especially concise Amigos …verbal slayers of the Obamaphiles
Rasmussen – Obama +8
Gallup – Obama +2
Watch for the collapse now.
The Yahoo latest.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080509/ap_on_el_pr/obama_endorsement
Just taking a step back – superdelegate count for the week:
Obama 21, Clinton -1. That dam is busting, get ready for the flood.
Now 22 – (-)1. And we’re probably not done.
Not sure if this has already been posted, but is interesting nonetheless.
A new SUSA poll shows that if a re-vote were taken in California, Obama would win 49-43
http://cbs5.com/politics/poll.clinton.obama.2.720136.html
Morning Bludgers,
Fri May 9: The “I”-Word appears in WaPo, (and suggest mouseover datebox for Thurs May
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/uclickcomics/20080509/cx_tt_uc/tt20080509
Fri May 9: An older working class male chats idly to a black woman in a diner. For this cartoonist, the mental apartheid of the former Jim Crow racist legislation no longer applies in his work.
Btw, there are still a few golf courses in the USA where Tiger Woods is not welcome.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AiCreltXU7EJtpYaphUYxwMxvTYC
“If he can win the Democratic Party’s nomination, Barack Obama has a genuine shot at the presidency because Tiger Woods has altered how Americans view a talented black man in pursuit of a goal that has been historically reserved for white guys.” Nov. 2007.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/phil-trounstine/the-new-tigerobama-calcu_b_72217.html
“So what is supposed to be our reaction? Well, we’re supposed to puss out and accept Hillary Clinton as our nominee, regardless of how the primaries play out. This is what the Republicans want. It’s what Rush Limbaugh wants. It’s what Sean Hannity wants. It’s what Pat Buchanan wants. They have this totally awesome attack strategery all ready to go for Hillary Clinton that they spent the past decade and a half and a shitload of money tuning to the precision of a Rolex watch, and they’re itching to use it. They don’t really have anything on Obama other than the fact that certain portions of their* base are racist bastards. They are peeing-in-their-pants” terrified of Obama, and this is their way of showing it.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/4/9/84515/94806/620/492643
We’re witnessin’ some Serious History goin’ down he-ah!
Obi da man, Bludgers, he da man! And as some sage once said:
“Cometh the hour, cometh the man.”
tick tick
One simple stat to keep trake of is the number of undecided supers less Obama’s lead in pledged delagates. Its now below 100, meaning if 100 more supers declare their hand – even split 50-50 – Obama is home.
The sole hope for the Clinton camp is a Mugabe like grab for the Michigan delagates. I can’t see it happening but she’s still out there swinging.
Ecky, I nearly choked when Laura Bush did the news conference to chide the Burmese for their tardiness in the wake of the cyclone.
But now I think of it, the entire (thinking bit) of the US would have been retching into a bucket had George tried to do it.
One should not make light of the gargantuan catastrophe that has hit the Burmese people, it’s beyond imagining in it’s horror and now vicious politically made tragedy, but it was poetic justice to see the Bush’s jump with alacrity to a foreign humanitarian crisis when the dimwitted Bush had sat around at his Crawford ‘ranch’ while they were screaming for help in new Orleans.
I’m sure it wasn’t an irony that was lost on too many.
663
Matt
Interesting, and proves that the more Hillary does Hillary the more the public feel it’s back to the future all over again.
Obama has held his composure, even when some were begging him to chuck some red meat into the Bud swilling bearpit, but he refused to take the bait, nor throw it.
It’s been a high principle stand, and appears to be converting the crowds. Whoever would have thunk it? As they say.
But what a clever strategy, to define himself as the agent of change to a more substantive way of doing politics and then letting his opponent flounder in her own muck. McCain will be watching and worrying, you can bet on it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9hGlYT38DZY
A new narrative seems to be growing – the slow but graceful Clinton exit strategy.
It goes like this – Clinton stays in the race, but stops all the negative attacks. Obama does not pressure her to leave and praise her strength as a candidate. Over the next few weeks she wins a few – loses a few. The heat goes out of the fight as the supers continue to show their hand.
Then a little after then last primary Clinton withdraws. This essentailly gives a few weeks for the rather hysterical Clinton supporters to calm down and not poison the well for Obama.
Obama is playing his part but I can’t see Clinton sticking to that script – we’ll see – maybe she will surprise us all with a positive and graceful exit.
Hey Codge, thanks, that helps…a bit, er, I think! LOL
Just an idea, but maybe you could do daily translates for us: The Ramblings of Ron Deconstructed and Rendered into Codgespeak.
The illustrated version, in glossy hardback could be a great coffee table book. (With the addition of four legs it would make a perfect coffe table! As Dame Edna once famously said).
(Keep up the good work, and try Babelfish if you get stuck. A quick transalte into Finnish and back again really sifts out the nuggets of meaning; it’s like panning for gold really, and finding more of the pyrrites!)
Fri May 9:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Ao8X0mumqqiCTkPeCJFkMnoDwLAF
Fri May 9:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=Avnq1oP_FTubqAerjJL3i1FR_b4F
Fri May 9:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=ApbGQBe.Ijx0GpRGnnhAIxLb.sgF
Fri May 9:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=Ar2Pf2qz81uQD88EMRTI0IfX.sgF
Yeah, Special K at 666 (you little devil) apparently when Laura lobbed back at 1600 Penn. for dinner that night, The Imbecile greeted her with:
“Heckuva job, Laura!!”
669
WorkToRule
That was Mike Shield’s screenplay for the next few weeks. On Lehrer with Brooks, he suggested that she’d do a ‘victory’ lap, get in a couple of symbolic wins in Deliverance country (he didn’t say that, but we know what he means! LOL) lay off the muck slinging, finish the primaries and let everyone cool off, and then retire gracefully.
Gracefully? Hillary? Hmmm. I’d like to think so, but as you say, we’d need convincing.
That puts her concession early June which was my original expectation, and unless the Supers are forced to shut her down (ie she disobeys the script) then that’s the likliest outcome.
But can she follow the script? Or, make one last tilt and try to rip it out of his hands by blitzing the last primaries, converting some Supers and chucking a great big tanty of Michigan and Florida?
Pass the popcorn…
Ecky, I can just hear the Grinning Chimp saying it:
“Heckuva job, Laura!!”
…what did Gore Vidal call him the other night? Something about a little yapping dog in the Whitehouse?
He looked so sad to see the Republic trashed by these vile little cretins, truly depressed by what they’ve descended to.
KR,
Its interesting to speculate if Hilary has been given the graceful victory lap script and whether she can stick to it.
Early signs after North Carolina were poor – playing the race card and the rather rambling open letter to Obama (was it written by a Clinton supporter on PB?).
Since then she’s been pretty calm and just playing for the fans. Oh and lets not forget she has a big bag cash to get back – so another three weeks of donations might be very important.
674
WorkToRule
yeah, Shields quoted some old political figure:
“There are two important things in politics: money, and I’ve forgotten the other one”!
…which is pretty much what I said the other day, she’ll be trying to recoup, what is it, about $20m? (Her loans and her debts).
So yeah, don’t make waves, do your ‘victory’ lap, recoup some cash, talk to Obama’s people, concede graciously and we’ll fix you up.
Chuck a tanty and they’ll slap her down.
NYTimes headline, (just for the record):
Obama Pulls Ahead of Clinton in Superdelegates
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/us/politics/09cnd-campaign.html?hp
…the Times, they are a changin’!
(well, they did ‘come out’ for Hillary to begin with. So are they now ‘back in the closet’ for Obama? Cross dressing with the Supers? LOL One can only conjure with that and come to the absurd conclusion that the NYTimes is afraid to be called ‘racist’!)
We talk real funny down here:
Appearing on MSNBC this morning, John Edwards said he was “very likely” to endorse the candidate he voted for in the North Carolina primary on Tuesday. But, the anchors asked, which candidate was it?
In his demurral, Mr. Edwards may have slipped: “I just voted — I just voted for him on Tuesday,” he said. But given Mr. Edwards’s Southern accent, that pesky pronoun may have been plural, albeit in a shortened form: “I just voted for ’em on Tuesday.”
David Schuster, an MSNBC host, attempted to ferret out the truth. “So it was a him or a her that you voted for?” he asked, interrupting the former senator. Mr. Edwards then backpedaled, saying, “No, no,” and laughing.
(above NYT link)
…it’s Randy Newman all over again! LOL
Money makes da vorld go round, da vorld go round:
WOODBURN, Ore. – Senator Barack Obama said today that he would not rule out the possibility of helping Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton retire her campaign debt to bring her into the fold and unify Democrats. But he said no discussions have taken place yet.
“Obviously, I’d want to have a broad-ranging discussion with Senator Clinton about how I could make her feel good about the process and have her on the team moving forward,” Mr. Obama said. “But as I said, it’s premature right now. she’s still actively running and we’ve still got business to do right here in Oregon and in other states.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/09/obama-wont-rule-out-easing-clinton-campaign-debt/
So she can go traipsing around the country as long as she behaves herself, and we might consider bailing her out if she doesn’t get in our way.
Haha, some of the blog posts on that last article are hysterically funny:
The RNC should pay off her debt. Hillary used to warn about the vast right wing conpiracy. Now Hillary is the vast right wing conspiracy. She copied McBush’s gas tax plan. She wants to Nuke Iran and start WW3. And she warns voters to vote for the White candidate. What happened to Hillary? Did a space alien from the planet Bush, inhabit her body?
— Posted by Kim
This is interesting. The wanker that runs ARG has been sulking on his site about fivethirtyeight and its methodology. In a couple of Shanahanesque dummy spits he has outlined why 538 has been wrong presumably because of his bad results and his company’s subsequent rankings. Of course, 538 has been closer than any pollster of late and his regression modelling picked the IN and NC results just about perfectly. So 538 has challenged ARG to predict:
“1) Hillary Clinton’s winning margin, and,
2) The exact number of votes cast in the West Virginia Democratic Primary.”
It’s pretty good when moronic bullies are called on their stupidity by people who actually know what they are doing. It will also be good to see if Dick Bennett accepts the challenge or is humiliated in the press if he ducks it.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/challenge-to-dick-bennett-of-american.html
Kirribilli Removals @ 679 -
You can add this by Gary Sick, who served in Bill’s admininistration, to the list:
The “new defensive alliance” with Arab states of the Middle East that Sen. Clinton has been proposing in the past few weeks is so similar to the anti-Iran alliance that the Bush administration has been trying to sell to the Sunni Arab states (with Israel as a silent partner), that I must admit I cannot see the difference.
http://www.motherjones.com/mojoblog/archives/2008/05/8189_former_nsc_aide.html
She’d make the perfect VP in a McCain presidency!
Expect a lot of Superdelegates to show their hands on the weekend. Simple PR rule is if you want your moment in the spotlight, choose a slow news day (which in politics are often weekends).
Sunday is a day when there are a lot of local political talkshows in the US and I would suggest many superdelegates are likely to make their feelings known this Sunday.
BSF – This sort of desperate, sad and delusional behaviour might tip a few more over the edge too:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/09/clinton-supporters-send-l_n_100979.html
“As the Democratic primary nears its long-awaited conclusion, undecided superdelegates have been drowned under a sudden deluge of angry, sometimes vicious emails from Hillary Clinton supporters urging them to not fall in line behind Barack Obama.”
Hillary down to 2.1% on Hillary DeathWatch. The sharks have started circling. Perhaps Finn’s dolphins will come to her rescue. Or GG’s marlin boat.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190987/
And can anyone explain to this simpleton why Obama beat Hill by 29% in Virginia but in West Virginia Hillary looks like beating Obi by 29%. How can two neighbouring states differ by 60%
681
MayoFeral
It was an interesting thesis from Sick, Mayo. (I read it last night on Juan Cole, by the way), where he traces it all back to Martin Indyk, who first advised Bill Clinton to adopt this double containment idea which then got seriously over-developed (on steriods) by Bush.
Obama is a huge break from the past on all metrics, eh?
684
Diogenes
Two words Dio: Demography and Deliverance.
diogenes @ 684
I’m not very clued up on Virginia/ West Virginia, but my guess is Virgina is much more prosperous and more numerous, more racially and socially diverse; West Virgina is mainly rural, less well-educated, mostly white….apparantly like rural Pennsylvania where Cinton also out polled roughly 3:1. From memory, W. Virginia has one of the lowest per capita incomes. Kentucky ranks pretty close by too.
Diogenes – WV is full of Bush Democrats. There are a ton more Dems than Reps in the state, but they have overwhelmingly voted for Bush twice. In other words, they are Hillary’s core demographic – gun totin’ religious whites who don’t care for a nancy boy elitist.
But only 250,000 voted there last time around. If Obama fancies funning strong and can find any pockets of support, his machine can surely get them to the polls. Polling showing Hillary by 45% is way out in my opinion, but she should win by 20.
running strong…
Dio, just think “Duelling Banjos”.
Bumper Stickers in West Virginia:
Plunking for Hillary
684 – West Virginia is Hillbilly country. It has been poor in compared to Virginia since it was settled. It split off from Virginia in the civil war as their were very few slaves in the area (mostly because people were too poor to own any). It also has a heavily unionised mining workforce.
Good afternoon Fellow US Election Tragics.
Some movement at the RCP station:
Obama has leapt in the national averages from 0.1 (where it’s been languishing all week) to 2.1 in his lead over Hillary. The leap is largely due to a Rasmussen tracking poll showing Obama at +8 over Hillary. Gallup Tracking also came in at a more modest +2 lead to Obama.
Hillary’s super delegate lead has dropped another one overnight to stand at +7 and heading south. But, as mentioned in other posts above, the NYT and others are showing Obama ahead on SDs – and that’s before the Pelosi Pirates storm the good ship Clinton.
Another dumb question. If you look at the map of Hillary victories (and “Red” states), they are mainly inland states.
I read somewhere that there are fundamental differences between cities and people who live fronting onto borders with other countries or who live on the sea, as compared to the more isolated people in the centre of a country.
Countries that are born in conflict like France and Spain have their capitals in the centre of the country and are citizens there tend to be more “patriotic” and “xenophobic” than citizens of cities which are on the sea or are close to borders.
Is there any merit to this generalisation
DCW Superdelegate update:
Clinton leads by 1.5 on raw numbers, Obama ahead by 6.5 after applying the Pelosi factor.
Its about 10 pm over in New York and the super delegate traffic seems to be winding down for the night. Through the afternoon and evening we has several supers lining up with Obama, including DNC Edward Espinoza (CA), DNC Vernon Watkins, DNC Wilbur Lee Jeffcoat (SC), Laurie Weahkee (NM), Mazie Hirono (HI), and DNC Joe Johnson (VA). Hillary Clinton also picked up one delegate – Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (TX).
Obama: 276 (269+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
And yes, as Diog mentioned above, Slate has added sharks to it’s graphic of the sinking Hillary as she slips down a further 0.2 to 2.1.
Can she do a Jaws and blow the toothy bugger to smitherenes? Or is it lunch time in ol’ briney?
FG – Unfortunately we aren’t gonna see that lead stretch too far. Pollsters are winding down the head to head contest. This from Rasmussen:
‘However, while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee.
…With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.”
695
Ferny Grover
Can she ‘jump the shark’ and do a perfect landing on her feet and declare herself for Obama?
Now, that’s the question! LOL
Hillary jumping a shark? I think she’s already done that KR
Assuming the remaining contests play out with Hillary Clinton picking up a total of 13 pledged delegates more than Obama, and on the basis of the number of remaining superdelegates as of right now, the target for winning 2024.5 delegates breaks down as follows:
Obama: 59.5
Clinton: 217
So now instead of tracking the lead, the real number now is to track Obama closing in to the 2024.5 number (while keeping in mind that the Rules and Bylaws committee meeting at the end of the month could change the goal posts).
Now, if you were Obama, and all the rumours were true that you have private commitments from a squillion SD’s tucked away ready to display at the strategically optimum moment – when would you release them?
Would you continue with the steady drip approach? Would you drop a hefty ten or so on Tues to take some gloss off Hillary’s thumping WV win? What??
FG – Constant drip, then a chunk at 21 May with the proclamation of victory. Although the 9 yesterday might indicate that they’re ready to go now.
Ferny Grover at 700
If I were Obama and I had a bunch of super up my sleeve, I would release clusters of them equal to or more than the number of pledged delegates that Clinton wins in the upcoming races – that way, the media reports “Hillary Wins, Hillary Looses”.
So what’s going on in the heads of the remaining 250 or so SD’s?
Are they simply loving their time in limelight – the fate of nation in their hands?
Or are they just waiting until the outcome is so cut and dried that they can avoid being on the wrong side of history?
691 – I said West Virginia is Hillbilly country….. Just realised you could make that HillaryBilly country.
Ron at 658
I’ll try not to.
I promise – I really do.
WTR – particularly the undeclareds from states that have already voted. I mean what could the 25 fence sitters from CA be waiting for?
I get the feeling that there has probably been some sort of deal between Dean, Pelosi, Reid and the Clintons on the June 15 date. Something along the lines of ‘we won’t push you if you settle down and give us an end date’. They obviously agreed on 15 June while Clinton thought she had a shot and it is hard to prise her out now until that time. Hence we don’t see the party leaders rattling that fence as hard as they should be.
Pancho at 706
Whatever is going on behind the scenes – one has to give the Obama campaign credit for doing a very good job of maintaining a line where on one hand its not a dump, but on the other hand its not just a trickle any more.
Just can’t get enough of this kind of talk!
“La commedia è finita” would be greeted with a shrill, defiant response from somewhere in the gods: “No it’s not. Not until we’ve counted the delegates from Michigan and Florida!”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/gerard_baker/article3897165.ece
Senator James Webb for VP?
“Webb is a Naval Academy grad and Vietnam veteran (exactly matching McCain), and a former Secretary of the Navy bringing directly relevant executive experience. He won four military medals in Vietnam, and was wounded twice, a record that, along with awards from the American Legion and VFW, would repel attacks by SwiftBoaters. His term at the Pentagon came under Ronald Reagan, when Webb was a Republican, an advantage in Obama’s effort to achieve a new electoral coalition. With this military background, he reinforces the Democrats’ case against the Iraqi intervention, a position he has articulated from the beginning of the war and with particular force, including a direct confrontation with President Bush at a White House reception. As a novelist, non-fiction author and Emmy-winning television reporter, he also shows intellectual distinction.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_should_pick_webb_for_run.html
So, OK, you’ve had a bit of Italian at 708, how ’bout a bit a bit of Latin then?
“And the Democratic Party, after this long and brutal slog, should be dancing in the streets. Party elders should be coming out on the balcony in full array, in full regalia, and telling the crowd, “Habemus nominatum”: “We have a nominee.” And the crowd below should be cheering, “Viva Obamus! Viva nominatum!”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121027865275678423.html?mod=todays_columnists
#658 Ronnie – [Now GG & FINNS (i) should I next time give a one liner answer] – you doing fine mate. you keep your machine gun going and leave the sniping to me and GG. We will see how good these Obamaphiles here ducking from our sniping (we know our gal is good at that) and if we dont get ‘em, your machine gun spraying will. the Obis here are dead ducks, especially the Mexican variety, queck queck queck………
Webb or Clark are all right by me, Ferny, but Jimbo’s my pick. SDs will get back to me on this when they’re through consulting with Ron.
Dunno Eckie – He’s got a lot of medals, AND he can spell! Sounds like a bloody elitist to me!
I looked up a bit more on Jim Webb and he is an amazingly talented person. He is a polymath in the best sense of the word. He is a very highly respected novelist (five novels), with his “best” novel being “The Emperor’s General” which is about the end of the Pacific war and the instalation of Douglas McArthur as the military governor of Japan.
He also wrote the story and was the executive producer for the 2000 movie Rules of Engagement, which starred Tommy Lee Jones and Samuel L. Jackson.
Finns,
Well said.
At times, I feel I understand how King Leonidis felt as he prepared for the marauding imperialists from “Obi” the hills at Thermopylae. But he least had 300 mates to hold up the opposing army.
Oh well, I suppose we will just have to take out a few with our charming wit, our unchallenged intellectual prowess and some well delivered barbs to their nether regions.
Bring it on!
Greeensborough Growler at 715
Oh, GG, your so cute when you go feral! In the meantime while you plot you cunning reply here is a little graphic from the New York Times.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/images/politics/20080509_SUPERS_GRAPHIC/0510-web-SUPERS.gif
714- Oh, I have read “The Emperor’s General”. I didn’t think it was that good. A sex romp with a love triangle if I remember rightly.
#715 GG – Ariba, ariba, ariba, for our mexican friend…………….
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=JIFgouHdlro
#716 – [GG, your so cute ] – well well well GG, who is the chick magnate now? The man from Kirri will be jealous you took it away from him.
Yey, Team Finn/Growler, where there’s life, there’s hope. Even though that aspiration be negative.
“It’s not math anymore, it’s psychodrama. If she can’t have it, no one can have it. If she has to tear the party apart, she will.”
Peggy Noonan WSJ.
Growler, it’s Lesley Gore Politics writ large:
“It’s my Party and I’ll cry if I want to, cry if I want to,
You would cry too if it happened to you”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsYJyVEUaC4
(2 min. 11 sec. of girl pop lolly gobble bliss bomb!)
I agree with HarryH, EC and others that Jim Webb is very, very attractive as a VP pick. Hardly an original thought, but Obama needs to bolster his national security credentials and avoid being painted as an arch liberal. It makes sense to pick a white male with a strong military background, and Webb really does seem to fit pretty well.
He’s a decorated Vietnam veteran who didn’t protest or flirt with the counterculture, and still half defends the war’s rationale apparently, so he’s a lot less vulnerable to swift boating. He could add to the narrative, let’s get beyond the divisions the 1960s created. He was Navy Secretary under Reagan, helping with the change politics message, but he’s been a strong critic of the Iraq war and is now a reliable moderate Democrat it seems. Much of his political persona is explicitly based on an appeal to downscale white voters, tailor made for a demographic Obama needs to target. He identifies culturally with the fighting Scotch Irish of Appalachia, a region taking in parts of Ohio, but he supports civil unions so he’s hard to typecast. He’s received publicity for populist economic positions, which arguably helps Obama’s credibility on things like trade. He’s only been in Washington for two years but it’s hard to call him inexperienced. He won a high profile campaign in a difficult state against a potential Presidential contender, so he must have some campaigning skills. He seems to be both a genuine moderate with cross-over appeal and someone liked (or grudgingly respected) by liberal activists. He’s been in the national newscycle lately for backing a new GI’s Bill of Rights, a great wedge issue for Democrats (and good policy at first glance). The list goes on and it’s such an easy story to write.
Even some of Webb’s negatives are potentially, as an Obama running mate, electoral positives. He’s copped flack for making politically incorrect remarks, but this might be no bad thing against straight talk McCain. In the 1970s he was dismissive of women in combat, but bringing this up just reminds people he’s a veteran and it didn’t cripple him in Virginia. He doesn’t deny using the N word in his youth, but this just reminds people of his roots and that there’s nothing wrong with a redneck (he claims the term proudly) backing the black guy.
Maybe there’s some risk that picking Webb might be taken as an admission of weakness and inadvertently boost the “whites don’t trust Obama” narrative, but that’s a problem for anything done to address this issue. Apparently there are some racy bits in some novels he wrote too, but some of those same books are on military reading lists or somesuch and he’s also written serious popular history. If that’s the best the Republicans have, Webb has a lot going for him if it doesn’t have to be Clinton.
I’m a bit sceptical about Wes Clark. I was initially sympathetic to him in 2003, largely because of his former rank and his involvement in Kosovo, but he never really caught hold of anything. He got panned for being wishy washy and came over as an Iraq war flip flopper. He’s not particularly charismatic. He doesn’t really add anything to Obama’s economic message. He’s never run a successful political campaign or held any elective office (this would be a first for quite some time). He doesn’t have obvious appeal to a particular swing state. More recently he observed that “New York money people” are behind the Bush Administration’s Iran policy, which won’t help when that topic comes up (to put it politely). I’m not sure that Clark offers anything beyond his (impressive) military CV unless it’s the debatable benefit of adding a second wonk to the ticket.
Good grief! Just watched the Lesley Gore(no relation) clip again and guess what?
There was a shortage of black people on the dance floor. Not one cluster!
You see, in 1963, these people usually came in a bunch.
EC,
Coming back at you.
Lesley Gore’s follow up hit “Now it’s Obi’s turn to Cry”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yy7aPyNuPxA
How our butterflys dazed today , the Obamabots twit , twit , twitting and in
and in self-twitting admiration I see with Pancho’s NZ Rugby ‘hooker’ in mind and
a butterfly inspired demograhic analysis of VA vs WV..why one Obama one Hillary
VA : put up Obama , a “FL pinky Andrew Peacock” & black vs a John Button ALP
to a hip hop college elitist based affluent set plus a high black vote ,
Obama wins by 25% with JUST that Democrat faithful over John Button
but the REST of the sensible population say No to flaky Oba , so ‘red’ for POTUS
WV put up Obama , a “FL pinky Andrew Peacock” & black vs a John Button ALP
to a traditional white & blue Labor person incl. Uni educated non elitists
John Button wins by 20% with that group over the flaky Obama
But that group are normal yanks (the majority) so a ‘blue’ win ‘off red’ for POTUS
Hell , thats back to electability ! Hillary more electable ! …..shush
The Obamabots cann’t see this , because from their Ivory tower they can only see the big picture , the vision , the affirmative action & change to’…. and with superiority & smugness they know we cann’t that big picture….and so to them all other matters are triffling in comparison , so just ignore electability they’re not the big picture vision for the snotted dream set
Ron
What’s with the butterfly metaphor? I’ve never been called a butterfly before. Is it something to do with the “butterfly effect” of chaos theory? Is the rippling of our little Obamabot butterfly wings at PB causing the tsunami which has drowned Mrs Clinton across the ocean?
For the record, I now think:
* Clinton has finally gone too far with her “hard-working white Americans” line.
* The Michigan delegates should not be seated. I’m not quite so sure about Florida, but probably neither should be. There’s no point in having rules if they are to be overturned retrospectively for the sake of convenience.
* Clinton clearly cannot catch Obama in terms of votes or delegates. The supers have the right to over-rule the primary results, but if they did so at this point it would cause a disastrous split and render Clinton unelectable if she gained the nomination that way.
* Therefore, Clinton should now concede. At the latest, she should concede after the last primary.
I still think Obama is a very high-risk candidate, but voters in NC and IN knew that and voted for him anyway. The will of the voters must be respected, even if they are wrong. The Dems have made their choice, for better or worse.
McCain is making plenty of mistakes and if he goes on doing so, that, plus the millstone of Bush, may be enough to get Obama up, despite his massive negatives, which the Repubs will exploit to the hilt. I would rate the contest 50-50 at present.
Obama cannot be elected by the red states alone and his black base won’t be enough to win him any states in the south, except maybe FL, which will be decided by the Hispanic vote. The election will turn on swing states like MI, OH and PA, where he has a lot of work to do.
(Off to Poland tomorrow.)
Adam
The biggest question is why did Hillary lose. Do you have a theory? In all seriousness, how could someone who has so high visibility, credibility, connections, organisation, political nous, ruthlessness, money and star power lose? It’s not like she made a horrible gaffe.
727
Adam
Invading Poland now herr Doktor? Be careful, the last guy came a cropper too, eventually!
Well, you’ve probably got it mostly right as regards to Clinton, it’s the numbers.
And yes, McCain is stumbling along like warmed over Reagan, (with the Alzheimer’s).
50/50? Hmm, we’ll see I guess.
Solidarity, Herr Doktor, at last?
728
Diogenes
Hubris, Dio, it was the hubris.
Precedes the fall, (as in November), apparently.
Er, for red states above, read blue states.
She lost because she was complacent all through 2007 and didn’t see Obama coming. His phony sainthood act successfully conned the liberals (not hard to do) and that plus the blacks gave him a crucial advantage, particularly in the caucus states. (Memo Dems for 2012: abolish caucuses.) By the time she got her lines straight, and by the time Obama’s essential phonyness was revealed, it was too late for her to catch up, given the Dems’ system of PR primaries (Memo: abolish PR, too).
Actually the last person to invade Poland was Stalin, and he kept it for 45 years. I only want it for two weeks.
Adam, i also think she lost because sexism is harder to overcome than racism.
Another factor is Bill Clinton. I dont think he has been effective and they have successfully used him to wedge Hillary.
732
Adam
Have fun, and come back before you run their economy into the ground! LOL
733
The Finnigans
Sniff the zeitgeist Finn, sniff the zeitgeist, it smells of two things:
1 Change
2 Toast
You can sort it out from here.
733 Finns
I agree about Bill. He has been a walking disaster for Hillary.
I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though. The demographics show racism towards Obama by blacks (and that is what it is to be blunt) has been stronger than racism against Obama by whites but race is a better predictor of voting habit than sex. The biggest single turn around came when Bill, rightly or wrongly, turned the “block” away from Hillary.
And there are consistently more females voting than males (57% to 43%) for some reason, probably as women vote Democrat more than males.
736
Diogenes
It’s good to the see the ILL (ignorant loathing lefties) scored a win on the nomination. It’s done, all bar the shouting.
Now, can the ILL pull off November? Seems like Herr Doktor’s ‘unelectable’ is being hedged early, eh?
Ah, good to smell the zeitgeist early and get your money on it, eh?
But some things are worth more than money! LOL
At some point in 2009 the Dems should sit down and think about how to improve their nomination contest.
Top of my list would be:
- make it much shorter (I appreciate no central body can make this happen, but maybe the later States could be persuaded to come forward to say mid-March at the latest – this should be a goal anyway).
- get rid of caucuses (agree with Adam @ 731). There is a reason the civilised world universally uses the secret ballot – open voting sucks. (Maybe they could keep the Iowa caucus for old times’ sake).
- get rid of PR (again, agree with Adam). The key point about PR is the disastrous effect it has on three (or more) cornered contests. If the Repubs had it their race would probably still include Romney and Huckabee as well as McCain. Winner take all is cruel, but so what – elections are cruel generally.
Asides the war and economy, the real sleepers are age and health. This hasn’t even started, but McCain has missed another deadline for releasing his records. What is wrong with him? Overtly or otherwise, the Dems will nail him on this. There is no way a guy that old and frail can win – he just looks bad. Imagine what could, and will, be made of the information in a half arsed diary like this: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/10/0158/15897/567/513020
I don’t believe that caucuses should go. The rationale behind having them is that they showcase an individual’s ability to play retail politics, and energise a base. Obama’s ability to revolutionise fundraising and bring armies of new voters into the fold, as well as his amazing ground operation, are indicative of his performances in the caucuses. Get rid of them, and this sort of politics dies as well. Given the direction that the party is moving in under Dean and Obama – with the help of Moveon, Kos and others – I’d wager that caucuses will be around for a while yet.
738
Dyno
Dunno about the PR thing Dyno, although I’d concede the others.
One thing about the race going on is that the person with the ‘brand name’ and connections gets those advantages removed so that a less well known candidate gets the possibility of making a claim.
Obama would not have a chance against Clinton under those circumstances, and I think Obama actually is the better candidate as do the majority of voters. But he had to play on a more level field to get there.
Ultimately these things are not about fairness, one person’s fairness is another’s poison after all. But I think it’s actually worked well this time, in a funny sort of way, because Hillary Clinton showed her weaknesses where otherwise she could have just taken the prize gift wrapped and without exposing herself.
She lost because she had more than enough time to show just how flawed she truly is, playing the Rovian song sheet for example.
Her expectations defeated her.
The medical records thing will be a beat-up. His neck dissection was negative according to what I can work out. The chance of his melanoma coming back now is about 5%. Still, that 5% could be used against him. Why take the chance etc etc. What if it comes back with cerebral metastases and he goes mad in office blah blah.
Pancho at 740
I’m thinking the same thing – caucuses have been passion central for the ground root base. And its more than registering and standing under a sign – its about forming connections, networking, being a part of political change.
“The Clintons should be ashamed of themselves. But they long ago proved to the world that they have no shame.”
…is Bob Herbert’s conclusion. For some really tacky examples:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/opinion/10herbert.html?hp
…it’ll have you laughing in the aisles.
To those who agree to endorse when they are told to – and I suspect there aren’t that many of them about, but nonetheless – I’d be saying… drip, drip, drip.
Hillary is going to get a boost from the next couple of states. But everyone has factored that in now, in a similar way to how JWH’s advantage as PM was already factored into his seat’s margin in ‘07. There is talk of a 30 point thrashing in WV, so if it happens it happens, anything less and the media publishes stories about how much she has faded. Unfair, but that’s the way the wind is blowing.
He now has all but tied the SD count. I think the only question is… will the floodgates open after May 20 or June 3? I suspect it will be the latter, so that the bigwigs can all say ‘we’ve seen the process through, now we will make our decision’. But on the flip side, it means that the dubbed ‘Pelosi Club’ is going to have to spend two weeks explaining why it is they won’t endorse Obama when he has already succeeded in winning the delegate vote, when they promised to support the vote winner. That and it gives him two fewer weeks for him to start properly mounting his general election campaign. Tough call.
I see four possible outcomes now:
1. Hillary concedes May 20. (25% chance – especially if things deteriorate over the next fortnight)
2. Obama claims victory May 20. Hillary refuses to concede until every voter is heard. June 3 arrives, she accepts her defeat, concedes gracefully, introduces world to the first Black POTUS… etc (60% chance)
3. Hillary refuses to concede, period. Come June 3, Obama is somewhere between 30-100 delegates off the magic number. Party now officially hates her. Enough SD’s step in/defect over the following week to ensure Obama quickly picks up the required numbers. He claims victory anywhere between a few days and a week later. (10% chance)
4. Hillary announces she is running as an independent, enacting her final revenge on the f*cking morons at the DNC for turning on her. McCain wins in November with 43% of the popular vote, and a staggering 75% of the electoral vote. Democrats start planning for the 2028 election – their next best reasonable chance at taking back the White House. (2% chance)
5. Some shocking scandal develops over the next few weeks which causes so much damage Obama is considered completely unelectable by the party, who unite around the ’safe’ candidate. (3% chance)
Welcome aboard Adam.
At the begining of the year I shared your thoughts about Obama being a high risk candidate. I thought this would be a warm up run for the Kid.
Clinton should have beaten Obama with the head start that she had -you have to give Obama credit for running down the party incumbant.
The last two months have been the low point for Obama. He has being attacked from two sides whilst having the discipline to keep his negative power dry. He’s looked lame, but I think he is now the best placed candiate.
#736 Diog – [I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though.] – dont speak too soon my friend. just wait when they turn on Michelle Obama. Boy, is she giving them the ammunitions. If Obama lost in Nov it will be because of the Pastor and his wife. How ironic, Hillary lost probably because of her husband, and Obama probably his wife.
747
The Finnigans
You do go on with tripe Finn. What’s the matter, feeling abandoned?
It’s OK, we’ll need someone to do the pompoms for McCain, and you sure sound like you’re trying out for the team.
Back from Rontown Finns!
KR @744 – that article is scathing. I expect we’ll see a few more from people who were bullied into submission while they thought the Clintons still has a chance emerging shortly.
#748 – i told you already KR, even your phoney candidate likes tripe.
746
WorkToRule
It took me a while to accept that not attacking Clinton ala Bob Herbert was really not being lame, but disciplined.
It must have been tempting to some of the insiders, but Obama has realised that the stakes were too high, and effectively wedged her on her own muck.
Class act.
Smooth operator.
Adam must be seething to see all those non-liberals getting sucked into the vortex of this man’s voodoo too. LOL
Ha, the ignorant loathing lefties are putting a spell on America!
Love it.
750
The Finnigans
yeah, he eats yours for breakfast! LOL
749
Pancho
I’ll wager there’s plenty more where that came from! LOL
Taking the furnishings! My god, they REALLY are tacky!
Diogenes – I know nothing about the medical, so I defer to you here. It just seems politically odd for him to be constantly announcing these releases will happen when put on the spot, and then to keep delaying. I would have thought burying them in the Democratic primary press would have been a good idea either way – if it was all good news, he’d get some of the publicity that was all going Obama and Clinton’s way. If it was bad, at least there would be distractions. For him to have not put the issue away yet just seems a little fishy. It also seems in contrast with the precedent he set with his transparency in 2000.
On the other hand, maybe he wants to pretend that his age and health aren’t all that bad or worth worrying about, or wanted to let the press focus on the Democratic catfight.
Dunno, but I don’t think it’s done by a long shot, whether the issues are real or imagined.
#750, [he eats yours for breakfast! ] – we know we know, especially when he was in jakarta, having to be scrounging for his next meal
755
The Finnigans
That’s a charmingly racist comment Finns. So people, of some other race, who’ve had to eek out a precarious existence at some point in their lives are exempt from being POTUS under your world view of human value?
Nice.
#756 – you ain’t got any idea of what “racism” means. have you been thru one yourself? or your ivory tower is too high for any racism to come near you.
Come and dont talk to me about racism when you have faced and lived thru one yourself.
oh, Finns, my ‘ivory tower’???
and ‘lived thru one yourself’?
Oh dear, don’t like it when you get caught out sounding like a redneck, do you?
Tell you what Finns, ivory tower types usually come on by flashing their ‘credentials’ and start telling everyone how things are and why anyone else’s opinion is diluted pigswill.
Of course, common garden variety ‘ignorant loathing lefties’ like myself, are NEVER right about anything and only say ’stupid’ things about stuff.
You do have a very short memory, don’t you?
Adam, great to hear from you again. Hope you’re having a great time in Europe. While you’re in Poland, perhaps you might like to find somewhere to bury this little nugget.
Adam Says:
March 9th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
If Laura Bush was one-third as smart as Hillary Clinton, then she would indeed be better qualified to be President than Obama. Clinton’s qualifications are not *just* her experience (she was the brains behind Clinton’s first election as Governor of Arkansas in 1978, when Obama was in high school, and she was working to impeach Nixon when Obama was 12), but also her formidable intelligence. She is smarter than Obama, Bush, Bill Clinton, McCain and just about anyone else you can name. Of course many, many people don’t like smart women, and that is part of her image problem, but if she can overcome that and get elected, her combination of experience and smarts will make her a truly formidable President. If SHE starts a war you can be sure she will win it.
Unless of course you’re considering it as tutorial material for your ever so lucky duckling psephs upon your return to the land of the raw prawn and the artful sledger:)
KR, i dare to you answer my question: “‘have you lived thru one yourself’?. Come on and be a real sport and answer a real question for once, rather than just your usual pontification.
760
The Finnigans
I have no idea what you are talking about, but that wouldn’t be the first time.
One does not ‘live thru one’ when the subject is ‘racism’.
If you can’t be any more coherent than that, is that my fault?
KR @ 670 a starter
Ron @ 725
butterflys dazed today…
Pinky
& black
Flaky
Pinky
& black
traditional white & blue
flaky
a ‘blue’ win ‘off red’
Ivory…
the snotted dream set
Paint, poetry & the undercoat’s lament; when the ‘thinkskin’ just wears out…& the hanky is loaded, a blow too many…
759
Enemy Combatant
One of the better illustrations of superior intellect, eh Ecky?
But not to worry, we now have Obi at even stevens to take McCain.
Goodness, haven’t the kid’s odds (not to mention his IQ) improved in a couple of months!
He must eat his spinach or something! LOL
762
codger
Hahahaha
falling
down
off
my chair
rolling
around
laughing
sweet jesus
it’s poetry!
Hillary made a huge mistake – she didn’t pick the mood for change. Sound familiar? Howard anyone?
The status quo is no longer good enough.
People are looking for the better angels among us to come to the fore – they are sick of the deceit, the fear and loathing and lowest common denominator style of government.
Note Obama’s slogan – “CHANGE” – “Yes We Can!”
Says it all really – picked the sentiment in just a few words.
The old establishment of the Bush – Cinton – Bush – Clinton hereditary peerage thing has had it’s day as well. Thank God!
Kr, [I have no idea what you are talking about] – my point exactly, you dont know what racism means because you have never faced or suffered it yourself. you are just an empty vessel that sounds the loudest.
Codge, you’ve cracked the code! Not only that, but created a thing of near miraculous perfection.
It flies, it soars, and everything becomes so lucidly clear, it’s intoxicating.
Delighting the senses.
What will you call your first book of the collected ‘interpretations’?
“Regurgitations on Primary Colours”?
765
The Finnigans Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Kr, [I have no idea what you are talking about] – my point exactly,
..nah, because you scramble the English language and ask something so ludicrous it’s not worth attempting to even bother answering.
On the other hand maybe the butterflies just got drunk with the lorikeets…again
Eh Mr Rudd?
Kr, nah,because you wouldn’t know how
The Finnigans at 765:
I though you thought he was chick magnet.
thought
#770 – [I though you thought he was chick magnet] – no, i bestowed GG to take that from him, that’s why he is in such a shitty mood tonite with me.
731..Adam..
I can’t help smiling, Adam. You reckon Obama is essentially a phony. How do you rate Clinton’s fake blue-collar? And her new-found love of hunting? Or her re-birth as a champion of “hard working Americans, white Americans”? Talk about artifice!
Adam, the horrible truth is, politics in America needs to be re-booted somehow. Otherwise they will go on producing half-wits and scoundrels as leaders: imagine, an endless run of Clintons, Bushes, McCains, Huckabees and Gingriches with their Cheneys and Rumsfelds.
The voters were not wrong about Obama and Clinton. You were.
727 Adam – The will of the voters must be respected, even if they are wrong.
A realistic conclusion indeed. Perhaps you should send a copy to the senator for New York. I’m sure she would appreciate the last bit about the idiot voters.
You want to see change in the voting systems of the Dems. Trouble is, what if your preferred candidate next time excels at the caucuses and benefits from PR – that is, isn’t the nationally better known candidate to start with?
All your changes would do would be to ensure the better known face wins in the first few primaries. Sure it would have suited Clinton, but what if your next champion is state-based?
I think once the dust has settled, Obama wins POTUS, and the air is fresher, the Dems will stick with what worked so well this time. Imagine if Hillary had won by 5 February. The voters would have had no chance to gaze on her ineptitude, lies, shallowness and other voluminous shortcomings in the glare of a longer and closer process, until the general election. They would also have missed out on seeing Obama tested with dirt, pass with ease, grow in stature, and be strong and ready for the general election.
775
JV, there is a parallel universe where:
“Imagine if Hillary had won by 5 February”
…actually occured. We were told that it was a certianty, and that we were all vacuous dreamers drinking the Obama Kool Aid.
We were scorned, reviled, and told in no uncertain terms that we were but blogging chimps.
So, to those that inhabit the parallel universe:
Wanna bannana?
KR @ 776 [we were but blogging chimps.]
Being told that about ourselves was a bit like this from memory:
http://www.cartoonstock.com/blowup_stock.asp?imageref=lka0118&artist=KAZ+-Larry+Katzman-&topic=banana+
Kirri, at least Herr Carr had the stones to front and recalibrate his didacticism before galavanting off to Gdansk. Actually agreed with half his utterances though his tone was Teutonic, his drift was less bubonic.
——————
The Beat Goes On
Cruel and cryptic, codger,
Alpha of Omega code-breakers.
Thou art:
A hanky with panky
A gob seeking swab
A blow too far away
A tissue of sighs
A goober on a louvre
I dub thee Sir Splat,
Poet Laureate of Bludgerdom.
Ferlinghetti & Kerouac
Burroughs & Bukowski
Who sleep with the fishes
Send their best wishes.
Off topic, but does anyone know what blog site they were on?
Liberal Staffers Sacked Over Blog ‘Undermining Politicians’
Two members of the Liberal Party’s campaign unit have been sacked over a blog site the party says was aimed at undermining politicians, including Victorian Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/10/2240985.htm?section=justin
777
jaundiced view
classic!
But isn’t it nice to have one’s revenge served slowly and inexorably?
Or more seriously, doesn’t it show how totally blindsided the ‘elites’ really were? Nobody who ‘knew’ the canon of US politics could contemplate Clinton getting rolled. OK, it took some low percentage events to assist it, like Florida and Michigan getting excluded, but even with those factored in, we had the ‘experts’ utterly unable to imagine any other outcome.
No doubt tomes will get written about this!
Anyway, we’re all just dupes of the silver tongued hypnotist, so what would we know, eh?
779 jv
The site, hewhostandsfornothing.blogspot.com, can only be accessed by invitation.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23676765-2862,00.html
779 The culprits might be a couple of ours here.
Excellent EC – We’re on the way to becoming the doggerel centre of bloggerdom. Ogden eat your heart out. I reckon you guys can beat Pam Ayres any day.
KR – There must be many PHDs waiting to be written up on the back of this nomination. In fact, we have drafted about 400 theses ourselves on PB on a rough estimate. A bit of revision and editing (in one or two some cases a lot), and job done.
781 Thank Diogenes – I wonder how we can score an invitation to have a look at it.
778
Enemy Combatant
Yep, Herr Doktor made the diagnosis that the patient Hillary is now kaput, and although still breathing, is, as they say in the USA, dead woman walking.
But I wouldn’t be holding out for anything even remotely sounding like a concession, just yet!
Maybe we’ll get better quality stuff when he moves on, accepts his inner Obama, and starts concentrating his posts on the general. (I’ve always found his attachment to Hillary a bit ‘needy’, but I’m not a pyschologist! LOL)
Funny how the ‘tough’ guys (faux, of course), seem to like the Nurse Ratchet touch. There’s some deep stuff there for anyone willing to drain the swamp, but I’ll leave it to those who don the waders.
It sure makes for some strange bedfellows, eh? Electoral scribes and Joe Sixpack doin’ it together for Hillary? Freud would have a field day!
Adam did indeed have the courage to front and admit errors, others hedged all along and came out as certs from the beginning only when it was a cert.
Well I lost a slab on Hillary. Hope I don’t loose the one I put on the Democrats otherwise I’m going to have to buy one instead off passing it on.
Andrew Landeryou has a links to the site hewhostandsfornothing.blogspot.com:
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/2008/05/party-in-meltdown-website-that-dared.html
On McCain’s melanoma, if the 2002 one was the most deadly I’ll just consider that one. The cheek melanoma had a Breslow thickness of 2.2mm. That has a 75% five year survival. They did a sentinel node biopsy which was negative but still went ahead to do a (very slow) superficial parotidectomy and neck dissection, which were also negative. There is no evidence that this operation should have been performed (that is called VIP syndrome, in which famous people get WORSE care because everyone overtreats etc).
Assuming he has been disease-free since then, there is only a 5% chance of him dying of his melanoma. He would have had lots of CAT scans and PET scans. There may be a few minor abnormalities on the scans which do not represent metastasis, but could raise a few doubts. Any 72 year old will have a few enlarged lymph nodes or liver cysts.
The fascinating thing would be the CAT scan results of his brain (melanoma often spreads to the brain). At his age there will almost certainly be some cerebral atrophy (shrinking of the brain). “Who wants a POTUS with a shrunken brain” will be the question raised.
Adam predicted an easy win for Hillary because she had a greater profile, the DNC machine was apparently behind her, she is more conservative than Obama, and she is not Black.
But he failed to take into account changing public attitudes, in particular, the desire for a break from the past, and the promise of a new style of politics.
Some of us here at PB were telling him this when we were not just predicting Obama would become the Democrat presidential candidate but also win the general election, but he basically called us dimwits and fools.
I hope Adam is enjoying eating humble pie, because he will be eating more of it when Obama is elected president. Slowly, but surely, even he must be starting to see this as a possibility. He just gave Obama a 50-50 chance after only a couple of weeks ago saying Obama was about to destroy Democrats chances of winning.
I guess even professional psephs get blinded by bias and loyalty to their favourite candidate.
Thanks Molesworth – No wonder Ted wasn’t happy. But how did they trace the posters I wonder? Unless they were stupid enough to use the Lib headquarters’ computers.
Still worming away, eh, ESJ?
Well I put my money on Obama at far better odds than you can get today and got the usual lofty dump from Herr Doktor.
Man, that’s so funny. And like you too, crawling back here for another caning.
Who’d you back, oh yeah, John Winston Howard, and Rudy (the freak) Guiliani?
What a fitting pair for you.
jv @ 776,
I think you’ll find the key point about PR is when there are more than two “strong candidates” (by which I mean people with a significant share of the vote) – eg this year’s Republican race. PR is a recipe, under those circumstances, for everyone staying in till the Convention.
jv at 782, yeah thanks, but codger is top doggerel.
You’re right about those nascent PhDs. and the wealth of material on PB. Actually there’s nothing quite like “us” anywhere on Sep Pol blogs. Some have good reporting but the comments section is over-burdened with rod wallopers whose cerebration could be best described as ungulate. On others, all comments go through moderation which completely roots spontaneity, the soul of wit and the essence of repartee. The ability to share your ideas instantly with mostly appreciative peers, is one of PBs true delights.
We lurk on a specialised playing field. To some, the no brain-no service policy may seem harsh, but if you’ve ever tried to wade through the comments section of even good blogs like C&L or Kos or ThinkProgress, the multitudes of morons cruel things quicker than an ant plague at a picnic.
At PB, we get to know each other better as the campaign rolls on, strenghts and weaknesses, corns, eggshell zones and funny bones.
None of this could happen of course without William’s “parameter setting”. There’s something rather unique about the gallows humour here. Sanctuary is available for the good old Aussie larrikanism that’s been steadily diluted by the prevailing Seppo-Kulture that took roots here when idiot boxes became de rigeur in Oz homes from the time immediately after the ‘56 Olympics in Melbourne.
On some days the links, anaysis and standard of writing are nothing short of stunning. Then there the craic!
What has developed here, is critical creative mass. And fair-dinkum inter-tube evolution is something that few other pol/pseph blogs can boast about. On some days, and on most all primary days, the buzz around this place shimmers like an aroused cuttlefish. Going cold turkey for a spell after November will be akin to extracting wisdom teeth.
————————-
Below lurks the scimitar of Cinton’s demise.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/05/09/us/politics/20080509_SUPERS_GRAPHIC.html
New super for Obama – Utah addon Kristi Cumming (UT)
Dyno 793 – [everyone staying in till the Convention.]
Granted, but I’d prefer that on occasion to a system of simple state-wide first past the post, which would have given us Hillary in this instance. The existing Dem system did work, after all, and produced the best candidate in terms of national popularity, campaigning skills, people skills in a range of circumstances, character, and money-raising. Why change the electoral system when it works?
The only thing I might change is the means of bringing an end to the obvious, perhaps with some sort of earlier mini-convention for super delegates being built in if required.
794
Enemy Combatant
Codge gets the Bludgers Bablefish Award for services in the mystic arts of translating obscurantist epics into veritable haikus of clarity.
We are in his debt.
Aroused cuttlefish are something to behold. In fact I had to lurk with No 2 son at the Manly aquarium tank for a while, as one of the little critters, drawn by the allure of fresh crustacea, came out all flashing and pulsating in anticipation of his catch.
Zap! And it was gone.
I have been away all day doing domestic things and have returned to the bludge cafe to review the conversation. The only thing of note (apart from Ron’s belief that we ar all beautiful butterflies) is Adam’s little “how to admit you were wrong without admitting you were wrong” exercise.
The thing that struck me most about his posts were the comments in one of them regarding the need for the Dems to abandon caucuses and proportional allocation of delegates. This goes to the heart of the political as opposed to the purely psephological, argument about Democratic Primaries. We can’t trust the Democratic base, the argument goes, because they will plump, more often than not, for a candidate too liberal for the wider electorate.
The spectre of McGovern is often invoked. What the alternative to McGovern in 1972 is never explored. The tragedy of McGovern’s candidacy is imho not that he failed to get elected. A more conservative candidate would have pissed of the party’s base and equally failed. The tragedy was that the impressive new left that had shifted American society through its campaigning activities was drawn back into the fold of purely electorzl politics – of a Democratic Party that was no longer interested in change. McGovern was to Jimmy Carter what Al Smith was to Roosevelt. He built a coalition of support that, in more favourable circumstances, led to victory. Roosevelt may have been worth it; Carter definitely wasn’t.
So now Adam wants to abolish this nasty little democray thing because you can’t trust the people to get it right. In the meantime, he realises that their decision has ben made. They want Obama, and any move to deny him the nomination by shennanigans would be disastrous. Credit for that Adam, but it’s small credit.
EC @ 794 -Spoken with the colour and grace of an aroused, shimmering cuttlefish.
And that graph – a scimitar it is, hanging above the striated curve of the Hillarian neck.
798
Robert Bollard
Some small irony that the ‘elitist’ position that derides the ‘popular will’ is at the same time deriding the ‘elitist’ choice!
It’s so damn convoluted it’s disappearing, fundamentally, if you know what I mean.
Uncle Noamy scores with a gentle header. Long gone are the days when he cut a swathe up centre-field, but every goal is good for percentages when you playing against Team PNAC.
http://www.newstatesman.com/200805080026
Take it easy, Kirri, encouraging familial “Hello Breakfast!” moments like that might develop into junior flippin’ Dorkshire terriers into a tank of Giant Squid.
“Aw, gee Dad, he looked awful hungry, but did you notice his complexion didn’t change tone at all?”
(Wonder what Gary Larsen’s doing these days?)
RB, but caucuses are no more democratic, in essence, than secret ballots, are they? And of course open voting could conceivably be highly contentious if a team really played hard-ball.
As for PR it’s just impractical when there are more than two candidates with lots of support (a scenario that, whilst not occurring in this year’s Dem race, is sufficiently likely that the rules should cater for it).
I don’t think being anti-caucus and anti-PR is at all an undemocratic position.
As for super delegates, I’d just abolish them. I think they are useless at best (and certainly they are anti-democratic in concept).
Something to reflect on today – the ability of apparently normal people to countenance grotesque and untenable acts among them:
Germany Marks Nazi Book Burning Era
Ceremonies are being held in Germany today to mark the 75th anniversary of the burning of thousands of books organised by the Nazis three months after Adolf Hitler came to power.
The works of eminent German language authors such as Sigmund Freud and Heinrich Heiner were destroyed in fires across Germany on May 10, 1933.
The Nazis called it a cleansing of decadent literature.
Ecky, it’s not the four year old and the cuttlefish that’s the worry, it’s the seven year old who’s just discovered the LHC (Large Hadron Collider)! I can handle some funky cephalopods, even up close and personal, but I absolutely refuse to have quarks running around the house!
I agree. The PR system is the best because it levels the playing field enough so that lesser known, but potentially better candidates, like Obama, can rise to the top.
What I would like to see change is:
Make the state primaries and caucuses fall within a smaller time frame, say, two months. And if we also get rid of superdelegates, we can get to the end of the race much sooner, and not have to face the battle continuing all the way to the convention.
Otherwise, keep PR and if states want to hold caucuses, then fine. It’s not as though a caucus favours one candidate over another. They all have a chance of putting things together to do well in a caucus.
803
jaundiced view
Yeah, books first, people next.
Here’s a nice exposition of how the Dem voting system, including caucuses and PR, is working well:
Obama Rises From Political Obscurity to Verge of History
“The amazement was on their faces. Hundreds waited for Barack Obama on that evening in South Carolina, 15 weeks ago, to claim victory – a surprising victory, surprisingly large.
And amazing it was. It made it possible for him to stand today on the verge of being the first black person ever nominated for president by a major party.
One could guess the thoughts of the blacks and whites in that crowd: Can you believe that our state – South Carolina, first to secede and first to open fire in the Civil War – is now catapulting a black man to the front of the presidential contest in a year that bodes well for Democrats?
“Race doesn’t matter,” some began to chant. “Race doesn’t matter!”
The cry soon gave way to more familiar chants of “Yes we can,” and everyone in the auditorium surely knew that race does still matter in so many ways. But in a pinch-me moment, they seemed to realize that a barrier had been broken with a swiftness and certainty that even they had not foreseen.
Even more astounding, the man vaulting ahead of the universally known former first lady, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, had been a state legislator only four years earlier – a lawyer with no fame, wealth or family connections.
Now, the entire nation and countless foreigners are absorbing a moment that had seemed decades away, if possible at all. Smart strategists and rank-and-file voters ponder how Obama rose so far so fast, and theories abound. Historians will sort it out someday, but Obama’s blend of oratory, biography, optimism and cool confidence come to mind most immediately.”
It’s not just about him, of course. If America can seriously think of putting a black man in the White House, surely it must also profoundly rethink the relevance of race, the power of prejudice, the logic of affirmative action and other societal forces that have evolved slowly through the eras of Jim Crow, desegregation and massive immigration.
807 – include the last para should in the extract.
Link -
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_ODYSSEY?SITE=NVLAS&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
KR 806 – Inexorable:
“Where they have burned books, they will end in burning human beings.”
— Heinrich Heiner, from his play Almansor (1821)
No wonder his books were burnt, given what the N*zis had in mind.
ADAM CARR writes #727 & #731) & you really ignored his words which I find astonishing seeing he has expertise in psephology.He mentioned specifically about FL ,MI, OH and PA being a problem for Obama to win and the black vote was crucial to giving Obama the Nominee. Your closed mind support for Obama against any adverse Obama analysis is incredible even when an expert like Adam comments.
The same thing about these swing states has been said by me & further that 3 of these Hillary would win & with them win POTUS but those comments were similarly ignored. I’ve gone further than Adam on the black vote , I’ve said psepholigocally it did give Obama the lead & that why he is the Nominee not his ‘change to’ phony message. Some Obamaphiles retort claiming I’m racist for my comment just demonstrates you know I’m right psephologically & are uneasy a 10% race group has been so decisive and/or some may problems with racism
Theoretically Kerry could be the last white Democrat Nominee in a Country with over 80% white, Obama has shown blacks & hispanics how. The potential consequences of minority ethnic mobilisation to play the system as Obama has are of no concern to the Obamabots. It is one thing to have racial inequality needing remedy but another to create political racial inequality & Obama represents this indesputably on stats between a white person vs a black person within the SAME party. Care what you sow all plus those with hidden racist views rather than colourblind merit as the criteria. Yous really are butterflys
Here’s a cartoon for you r/Ron so you can start your night with a laugh:
http://www.cartoonstock.com/lowres/dre0544l.jpg
‘night all.
Superdelegate round-up
With the addition of Kristi Cumming for Obama, Clinton’s lead in the raw totals is down to just half a delegate (0.5). After taking into consideration the Pelosi factor, Obama is ahead by 7.5.
Running Total (with Polisi factor)
Obama: 277 (270+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Looking ahead and assuming a projected gain to Clinton of 13 pledged delegates in the upcoming contests, the numbers of superdelegates each needs to win the nomination are detailed below.
Superdelegates needed to close the nomination
Obama: 58.5
Clinton: 217
Sometime today there should be announcements of add-on delegates from Massachusetts and Ohio. This could result in a 4/0 split advantage Clinton (although some people are speculating a possible 2/2 split).
the black vote
closed mind
I’ve gone further than Adam on the black vote
you know I’m right
& are uneasy a 10% race group
some may problems with racism
a Country with over 80% white
blacks & hispanics
minority ethnic mobilisation
racial inequality
political racial inequality
a white person vs a black person
hidden racist views
colourblind merit
butterflys
An old b&w youtube where the butterflies p*ss the parrots off and hog all the grog…or is that the other way around?
Meanwhile some more negotiations loom for B Hussein O
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/11/2241067.htm?section=justin
As Condi’s birth pangs pinch…
Seizing the moment?
I smiled as I read this – partly because I think its the reality – and partly because I’m an Iron Chef addict.
http://www.slate.com/id/2190567/
FINNS, Kirri, EC , Robert, & j/v
modern travel, MCG tonight 60,000 ordinary Aussies enjoying the footy , Butterflys don’t go to the MCG and so scrolling back we find k/r accusing you of racism and now finally the feline butterfly faction of the butterfly set (k/r , j/v , fernie & the nz panch having all used racism barbs here on 2 Amigos are outed holding slime Ivory Tower views so revealingly reflective of their own personal deepseated racial conflicts , although codger is struggling to join the group.
EC #794, believes PB has due to the 3 Amigos the highest bloger quality of all.
Robert #798 wiped Bill & Carter , presumably JFK & LBJ due to vietnam so Robert’s only good Democrat Pres is FDR elected in 30’s. A time capsule for you. Obama an DFR ? & misquoted me by claiming I’d bestowed ‘beautiful’ to yous
And a socialist supporting looney left elitists n Ivory Towers. Naughty says Marx
j/v 807 “the logic of affirmative action”. Obama the affirmative action Candidate
My #658 said yous were that ! no merit based, even socialism believes in merit
Ron at 811:
However, reality presents a different result. Keep in mind that 16,642,841 people have expressed an opinion and the majority demonstrated that Adam’s opinion was faulted. But according to Adam the majority are mistaken. And that takes me to the subject of elitism – “a select group of people with outstanding personal abilities, intellect, wealth, specialized training or experience, or other distinctive attributes — are those whose views on a matter are to be taken the most seriously or carry the most weight; whose views and/or actions are most likely to be constructive to society as a whole; or whose extraordinary skills, abilities or wisdom render them especially fit to govern”. Should we consider this term definition when reading Adam’s comments, or should we just assume that Adam didn’t get it right this time.
Adam did not address the democratically established policy and procedures (sometimes referred to as the rules of the game). Instead he talked about the potential impact on the main event. By ignoring the process, Adam appears to be demonstrating that he may not fully understand or appreciate the full implications of a policy and procedures based system. I can understand that – as the same problem appears here and over in the USA most commonly amongst the supporters of the loosing team. If you have worked inside the process, you know that the process is the tool, the mechanism, and the ultimate delivery vehicle. Anything else is just noise used to lubricate the media machine. This has nothing to do with having a closed mind – but it has a lot to do with having a mind willing to look under the covers and investigate the machinery that ultimately delivers results.
So what? Alternative opinions have been raised. And at the end of the day it is not as black and white as you would like to portray. There are many more attributes to consider that you do not appear ready, willing or able to concede or even discuss. Some of these attributes deal with the potential for the USA to take a significant step forward in maturity, to reclaim its international role, to move beyond the bully on the world stage, to take a role of responsibility, to move the fabrication of global terrorism from front and centre to the level of one of many issues (back like it was at the end of the last decade).
I don’t disagree with you. He has (with the unwitting assistance of the Hilary Campaign) managed to harness the African American demographic. Taking into consideration the real racial disadvantages within the African American community the very fact that Obama is doing what he is doing and achieving what he has achieved is nothing less than a historic moment for the member of this community. This is historic – the man has already made history – the USA is changing as we speak – this is history in the making. If you are African American would you feel anything but deep powerful pride? But beyond this, here is a candidate that is pushing forward a much bigger agenda – change to the status quo.
That is your opinion. I have a different opinion. My opinion is that this is man who’s time has come. A year ago I would have said it could not happen – but it is happening. Change is happening. Most everyone is having to adjust their thinking and the consequence of this is that not only are the peoples of the USA re-evaluating their priorities, but the peoples of the planet are re-evaluating the USA. Again – this is something extraordinary.
I’m not ready to call you racist – but, your comments do tend to focus heavily of the issue of race as a ‘big’ factor. As I described above I can see racially connected factors that are significant – but what I dislike is way you bundle black and white demographics as entities without diverse opinions or rational motivations. My world is probably smaller than your world, but I know this guy in New York, does his stuff on Wall Street, works with Citygroup and Bloomberg, and he would be annoyed – not by you or the stuff you write – he would be annoyed about your presumptions and assertions and the fact the your opinions are not as isolated as he would like. He is at the top of the field, he is respected internationally, and he knows that for some people the colour of his skin is used as a metric to identity his opinions and beliefs.
So what. If that 80% minority have a problem with this they can get out and vote. It’s a democracy stupid (apologies to Bill Clinton).
Now – its comments like this that move you closer to the racist argument. You position appears to be that Obama is evil because he is riding on ethnic mobilisation. I would argue that he is riding on the notion of ‘change’ and the principal that we can ‘move on’. Again – as mentioned above, I recognize the racial motivations, but unlike you, I think the message and the potential trump the ethnic factor by an overwhelming majority.
Yeah, whatever makes you happy Ron – but sooner or later you will need to get a grip on the fact that there is a diverse thinking population that does not agree with you. And given recent trends, your going to have to deal with it sooner or later.
EC @ 794,
Nice post.
Cheers.
Ron,
Obama is a white man with 50% black blood in his veins.
Because he is both black and white ,he identifies with both.
His potential for harmonising the US in this area alone is tremendous.
As one who’s children have a small percentage of ‘black’ blood, I can’t tell you
how relieved I am that we may be moving beyond race-
that there really is only one race,
the human race.
I appreciate your comments are about those voters who have racist views, but ,
like homosexuality,etc, most people,especially the young, have moved beyond
that.
Btw,do you define the term ‘white’ as European?
Would then a southern Spanish be classified as white?
Gets rather messy,don’t it?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGzbwJG4jZw
Yes, EC,
your 794 post soars.
Eat your heart out,msm!
#817 – Good Morning Ron, i wear the accusation of being a racist by KR like a badge of honour. i asked him a simple question whether he has personally been subjected to any racism in his life. As usual, he avoided the hard question and hide behind his pontification, verbosity, patronising self grandeur, and self appointed Leader of the Pack.
It really makes me chuckle being accused by KR as a racist, it’s like being accused by Pauline Hanson. As with Pauline Hanson he wouldn’t know what racism means. Please Explain!
#818 – Catrina with a C: [However, reality presents a different result. Keep in mind that 16,642,841 people have expressed an opinion and the majority demonstrated that Adam’s opinion was faulted] – wrong wrong, wrong. Majority? what majority. So far, Obama only got 48.7% of the votes. You call that majority? My definition of majority is 50+1.
So i will be kind to him and say these voters of some 8m will stick by him in Nov POTUS election. The total POTUS voters is about 124m, therefore so far Obama has tied up about 6.5%, the majority of the 93.5% still to be fought for and won. Guess what, of this 93.5% is mainly whites, hispanic, asian and others. A large chunk of the Black votes already been won is in the 6.5%.
If Obama cannot convince the 93.5% that he has the experience, character, judgement, connection, cultural affinity with them, then he is ffccuukk.
“Obama takes super-delegate lead” -BBC headline
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7394311.stm
Mornin’ Bludgers,
Sat. May 10:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AuQEbGp6mRWCfVJ7xUuA9dQDwLAF
Take a pinch of white man
Wrap him up in black skin
Add a touch of blue blood
And a little bitty bit of a red Indian boy
Like a Curly Latin kinkies
Oh Lord, Lord, mixed with yellow Chinkees, yeah
You know you lump it all together
And you got a recipe for a get along scene
Oh what a beautiful dream
If it could only come true
You know, you know
What we need, what we need
is a great big melting pot
Big enough big enough big enough to take
The world and all it’s got
And keep it stirring for
A hundred years or more
And turn out coffee coloured people
by the score
Rabbis and the friars
Vishnus and the gurus
We got the Beatles or the Sun God
Well it really doesn’t matter
What religion you choose
And be thankful little Mrs. Graceful
You know that livin’ could be tasteful
We should all get together in a lovin machine
I think I’ll call up the Queen
It’ s only fair that she knows
You know, you know
What we need, what we need
is a great big melting pot
Big enough big enough big enough to take
The world and all its got
And keep it stirring for
A hundred years or more
And turn out coffee coloured people by the score
(Blue Mink)
—————–
Thanks, Megan and Growler.
While I know I shouldn’t, this one is for you Ronster. Just cos you seem to have mentioned it about fifteen times on trackback.
One (how elitist!) supports NZ against Australia in the rugby league, in the same way as one supports, say, Kenya against Australia in the cricket (although I’m sure you wouldn’t do that
). No one is under any illusion that they are going to win, hence the appeal of supporting the underdog. You’d understand that wouldn’t you? For the record NZs odds were longer than Hillary’s.
A few unrelated points – hat tip to Adam’s concession, but also the pile on – good for a few laughs. And to Catrina’s eloquent rebuttal of he who will be the last man standing in the trenches, sometime in 2016 I’d say.
On demographics – anyone wanna tell me what percentage of the vote Bill Clinton won in 1992, and its breakdown? Oh let me. 43% in total. 39% of the white vote, 83% of the black vote. Now where have I seen numbers like that recently….
Oh and William – Napoleon Einstein? Magnificent.
The thing is, Hillary just isn’t ready to be President. Give her a couple more terms in the Senate to get some real experience, and I’m sure she’ll make a good leader. I know her supporters have been drinking the Kool-Aid of her campaign, but she has some real strengths. And although she has now been thrown under the bus, but she’ll be back.
.
“I’ve been saying for a year that you never count a Clinton out, but now people are laughing at me so I guess I’ve got to stop,” McCain strategist Charlie Black said Friday.
DCW has the superdelegate count at Obama at 275, Clinton 271. She now trails by every metric.
Pancho @ 828, I think Clinton has demonstrated that not only is she not ready she is unfit to be POTUS. She just does not have the qualities of leadership – courage, judgement, honesty and integrity – that she must have to be worth supporting. She’s been found out by the primary process and has already over-stayed her welcome imo.
Obi has sent Billary a singing telegeam to cheer her up a little!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02EXYSuFHjw
megan @ 820, I’m with you – there is only red blood as far as I’m aware. The whole idea of race is fake concept dreamt up in the 1800’s with the intention of proving White Europeans are inherently superior and deserve to rule the world. This scam only needs to be stated to be shown to be a self-serving farce and a fraud.
Unscrupulous, ambitious wanna-bes try to make mileage out of these scurrilous ideas, but they deserve no place in political life, let alone in the White House. Hillary is about to get exactly what she deserves in this respect.
Can some-one please explain the Pelosi factor to me? It would be much appreciated.
BO @830 – I agree. Just flipping some silly arguments @828.
Kerneels – superdelegates who have not officially endorsed a candidate, but have pledged to support whoever is the pledged delegate winner. As this will be Obama, those votes can be counted to him. See http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html
Thanks, Pancho, that makes sense now.
Before fading into my normal form (being a committed lurker) – It is great to read the views of Megan (820) and EC (826), I agree absolutely.
SD’s – At last, the magic word – ‘coalescence’. We knew it would happen:
“The tonal change in Clinton’s campaigning away from sharp engagement with Obama could reflect cold political calculation: with elements of the party now coalescing around him, her own political legacy may be at stake in the few weeks remaining before primary voting comes to a close on June 3.”
Love that word.
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/05/10/1210131328311.html
Kerneels at 833
While most super delegates have come out either for Clinton or Obama, or in some cases to formally state that they are ‘uncommitted’, a small number of super delegates have declared that they will support the delegate who has the most number of pledged delegates (the delegates won in the primaries and caucuses). In effect – they are delegating their decision to the result of the process that involves the people. There are about nine super delegates that have declared this position. One is a Clinton supporter, two are Obama supporters, and six are formally undecided. On the assumption that Obama will get the majority of pledged delegates we can apply the ‘pelosie factor’ which ends up as 6 additional delegates for Obama, and one defection from Clinton to Obama. All up thats +7 Obama, +1 Clinton.
woops -1 Clinton
jaundiced view at 836
Congratulations!
McCain Convention Chief Quits After Past Ties to Burma Revealed
As a blogger said beneath the article:
Gee, with friends like these, I can see why McCain is trying to make people think Obama supports Hamas.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0508/McCain_convention_chief_quits_after_past_ties_to_Burma_revealed.html
EC @ 826
EC, you are the mother lode! Cartoonist Sargent’s effort is apposite – I’m just about to fire up the machine for another Columbian Dark short black.
839 @ Catrina – thanks – do I score a bottle of red?
Superdelegate round-up
Since the addition of Kristi Cumming for Obama we have had three supers coming out for Obama, one for Clinton, and one defection from Clinton to Obama. In raw numbers this puts Obama into the lead for the first time advantage of 3.5 over Clinton. This brings his overall lead after application of the Pelosi factor to 11.5.
Running Total (with Pelisi factor)
Obama: 281 (274+7)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
jaundiced view at 840
Catrina sends a virtual bottle of Chambertin to jv.
Aaaaah YES!!
The Coalesence of the Willing. You little bloody bewdy!
Memo to McCain/GOP/WHIG/PNAC/MSM/MIC:
We’re coming…… and we will not rest until our country is FREE!
810
jaundiced view
yes thanks for the quote, I knew it was there somewhere.
(As an aside, I know a distant relative of Heiner whose parents made it out of Germany,making that quote a bit more more personal)
818
Catrina
You excel Catrina, but I think Codger may have the edge as far as exigesis goes! LOL
(Nice post, cogently argued, but I fear it may not make much impact on the recipient!)
827
Pancho
Pancho, you stirrer! Dragging out the first black president’s numbers to compare with the first black nominee’s is a scurrilous act of evidence based argument.
Sorry old son, but we only deal with coloured butterflies here, or make disparaging remarks about the candidate’s past life in another country.
This must stop Pancho, you are raising the tone of the debate! LOL
Gladiators, who do you think will prevail? Imagine this:
In a sign of what could be an extremely unusual fall campaign, the two sides said Saturday that they would be open to holding joint forums or unmoderated debates across the country in front of voters through the summer. Mr. Obama, campaigning in Oregon, said that the proposal, floated by Mr. McCain’s advisers, was “a great idea.”
NYT
Presumably, each SD showing their hand for Obama wants their moment in the sun – the recognition of being part of a historic turning point. If they all came out in big bunch you loose that moment.
I suppose the Obama camp needs to schedule them –
“I’m sorry monday is all booked out but I can get you a spot for the morning news on Wednesday – do you need a sound bite with that?” … an so on.
Seems to me that is what’s going on.
Here’s a very nice interactive map of the US with percentage votes for all Presidential elections back to 1980.
I’m keeping this one bookmarked, it’s going to be interesting to see how many red striped states (just a republican victory) and how many red states turn in the fall.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/electoralmap/index.html
KR
Great link. Fun to play with – it quickly brings home how significant is Obama’s win in NC.
For example wins in,
Iowa (where it started) + NC (where it ended) = President Obama
Without even having look at places like Florida.
Good afternoon Yous – (with ‘Yous’ being the plural of ‘You’ but only applied narrowly to those who are both ‘elitists’ and Obama supporting butterflies).
Much movement on the SD front with RCP showing Obama hits the lead on this metrixc for the first time. Obama is +3 on RCP SD count.
Latest polls:
WEST VIRGINIA:
ARG* 05/07 – 05/08 600 LV 66 23 — Clinton +43.0
Rasmussen 05/04 – 05/04 840 LV 56 27 — Clinton +29.0
KY
SurveyUSA 05/03 – 05/05 595 LV 62 28 — Clinton +34.0
OREGON
Rasmussen 05/01 – 05/01 867 LV 51 39 Obama +12.0
SurveyUSA 04/28 – 04/30 650 LV 50 44 Obama +6.0
Obama is poised to improve the US’s perpetual paradigm paralysis on the M-East, if he can disengage a little from the dead hand on his shoulder of the pro-Israel lobby:
But Arabs across the region are looking past Mr. Bush with a hopeful eye — particularly if his successor is a Democrat, said Aaron David Miller, a longtime Arab-Israeli peace negotiator who worked for the first Bush administration and the Clinton administration. Mr. Miller said countries like Syria, which Mr. Bush has branded a state sponsor of terrorism, were hopeful that a new administration would be more willing to engage.
“If the Democrats come in after eight years, there will be a lot of new ideas, a lot of new enthusiasm to look at the Middle East in a different way, with more engagement, more diplomacy, ” Mr. Miller said, though he added that “there may be less of a change from Bush policies” than many Arabs think.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/washington/11prexy.html?_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin
Looking at these polls, you don’t want Hillary to pull out now. As someone mentioned earlier, it’s not a good look for Obama to get a 30+ pasting from a candidate who’s no longer running.
In fact, I’d wager this is the advice she’s receiving from the DNC – “Keep going till at least 20 May, be nice, attack McCain not Obama – and we’ll look after you.”
So the question is, has Hillary accepted that it’s over and that she’s just playing for her legacy/future roll in the Party?
Hehe…that should of course be future ‘role’ in the party. Freudian slip notwithstanding
FG
If she was playing for her legacy/future in the Party she would exit now so Obama wouldn’t have to get a 30+ pasting – in West Virginia & Kentucky.
She’s staying in because:-
1) she wants to recoup the money, or
2) she still thinks she can convince the super-delegates to swing back to her because of her ‘electability’ (ie the race card)
“In another ominous sign, national pollster Rasmussen Reports announced it was halting surveys. “The race is over … Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee,” he said.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/us-election/obama-winning-superdelegate-count/2008/05/11/1210444216125.html?page=2
Grace, the problem is that the contests will take place whether or not Hillary concedes. Her name would stay on the ticket much like Huckabee’s et al remain on the GOP ticket (and receive 25% of the GOP vote even though they bailed out long ago).
So Obama would face the unedifying spectacle of being hammered in KY and WV by a retired candidate. Best Hillary sticks around till those are over.
FG
But if she withdrew now and encouraged her supporters to vote for Obama surely he wouldn’t get such a pasting?
It’s way too late for that Grace – and in those states I think the die is cast anyhow. Obama’s going to have to take his lumps either way but at least this way he can do so against an active candidate.
EC quotes a comment I made a while back about Clinton being smarter than everyone else, as though I should now be embarrassed about it or something. I’m not. I thought then that Clinton was the best potential President in the field, unless Gore (always my first choice) had run. I still think so, although she has shown poor judgement recently (as has Obama). Obama won the nomination essentially with liberals+blacks. The Dems electoral system allows that, and the Clinton campaign was at fault for not being alert to that soon enough. That doesn’t alter my view about the relative electability of Clinton and Obama, or about who would make the better President.
Obama cannot win in November with liberals+blacks. Given the weaknesses he has shown, he has a BIG job winning the other voting blocks he needs (hispanics+jews+catholics+seniors). Given the Repubs’ woeful record, it’s possible. But it’s very far from certain. As of now, on a state-by-state basis (which is what counts), McCain is leading (http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May10.html), mainly because he’s ahead in FL and OH. To win FL Obama needs hispanics+jews – not likely, one must say. To win OH he needs those bitter small-town whites.
I agee with whoever said that Michelle Obama is a serious liability for him. She needs to SHUT UP. If Obama is tagged as Al Sharpton in a good suit, he is sunk.
By the way EC I am not a “professional pseph” nor do I teach psephology or anything else. I am an amateur pseph and as of right now unemployed. So far as I know the only fulltime professional psephologist in Australia is Antony Green.
Adam, I think it is simplistic to attribute Obama’s success to popularity with “liberals+blacks”. Clinton’s base has always been strongest among the less well-educated, the less well-paid, the female and the aged. But Obama is not devoid of support among these voters and has added new dimensions to the democratic constituencies – the non-aligned, the urban affluent, the young, the alienated republicans. Once Clinton wihdraws, her base will gravitate to the annointed Democratic candidate, especially if she can show enough grace to campaign for him.
I know you have had a personal preference for Clinton, but she has done more than exhibit poor judgement lately. Her schismatic posturing is really unforgiveable and disqualifies her as a viable democratic contender. She has put her own quest before the interests of her party and country and does not deserve to be taken seriously by anyone
Adam – The Jewish vote isn’t going to be a problem for Obama:
Rather than declining between March and April, support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107059/Obama-Beats-McCain-Among-Jewish-Voters.aspx
#860 – Adam, [I agee with whoever said that Michelle Obama is a serious liability for him. She needs to SHUT UP] – FYI, it was me. With the usual tripe/offal response from the man who likes to be king on this blog.
#747 – The Finnigans Says: May 10th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#736 Diog – [I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though.] – dont speak too soon my friend. just wait when they turn on Michelle Obama. Boy, is she giving them the ammunitions. If Obama lost in Nov it will be because of the Pastor and his wife. How ironic, Hillary lost probably because of her husband, and Obama probably his wife.
#748 – Kirribilli Removals Says: May 10th, 2008 at 6:38 pm
747 – The Finnigans
You do go on with tripe Finn. What’s the matter, feeling abandoned?
It’s OK, we’ll need someone to do the pompoms for McCain, and you sure sound like you’re trying out for
the team.
Finns
I perhaps haven’t been watching as closely as some but I haven’t heard anything about Michelle Obama since the “I haven’t been proud of my country until they voted for my husband” line. I’m not disagreeing with you but what has she been up to?
#863, Diog, will put something together
I feel like sticking up for Clinton. I’ve liked her for years, although until the last few weeks I always thought there must be someone more electable (mainly because she is not hugely ‘charismatic’ and has been tainted by years of usually unfair coverage and attacks). I think she would have made a good President if she had made it (with some lingering doubts about her ability to communicate the message). She has actually done a lot better in the primaries than I would have given her credit for against a strong opponent, particularly among downscale white men. Her candidacy also offered Democrats some possibility of awakening the slumbering Hispanic giant.
I now think that if she’d been able to win in a way most Obama supporters deemed ‘fair’ she would probably have been the more electable given the vagaries of the electoral college (particularly the importance of Ohio and Florida, as Adam says). Given that it was always a debatable proposition, I think it was quite reasonable for her to fight it out until now. I also think she’ll do the right thing and exit the race (or stop all attacks) if Obama declares victory after Oregon. Ultimately, I think she’s a loyal Democrat and even if she’s not she’ll understand that it doesn’t make sense to be seen to drag the nominee down.
socialist Robert ,FINNS, butterfly racist labellers j/v ,k/r,ferny,panch & other Obama’s
A confronting US black politic perspective,
Black race in US politics , black in ‘oz’ & the butterflys.. Mothers day festivities interrupted by humming , thought it’was hummingbirds so went outside to shush, but no it was humming butterflys , bytes , so need to cyber shush for special day.
Failed black race equality ‘oz’ (and US) style is a product of double derailment , and lack of leadership, will & practical policy action. Dealing with the first double derailment, yous are part of the problem not part of the solution.You initially attempt to stifle real life ‘black’ “black” conversation, but instead it needs to be frank, confrontalist (not your prissy kind) cause its brutally real & crudely failed. Your retort is galling to accuse those talking real life speak as ‘racists , to try to inhibit real life black discussion and then yous double derail derail black race solutions by pushing your theoretical, elitist & abstract Ivory Tower type politically correct books theories, papers & Commissions , which have so pathetically failed.
Using black psephologically is no different to saying white or Hispanic or j.e.w. Racism is in the mind of the beholder. Black indeed is not a bad word at all , and unlike yous Ivory Tower-ers I’ve often had said to me ‘I’m a black fella’ , black said with pride. He doesn’t say ‘I’m an indigenous fella’. And also’mate you’re a white fella’.The black man hasn’t used racism in either comment. His point is don’t treat me differently, show dignity & respect & merit (not pernalistic affirmative action) and share some of the $ spoils too for “opportunity” mate and I’ve got a culure history you could also learn , so equality , and I’m black. That means when I bleed I’ve got the same red blood as yous mate.
But says the black, why is this so hard to solve. Well one needs 5 years honours in philosophy , race expertise, learned authors & books , of theories to produce a paper or commission to say there is inequality & disadvantage & create more politically correct theory solutions. Oh says the black man with a wiry smile. And was it a conversation so symbolically at then ‘Ayers Rock’ in 1978 , and yet 30 years later the politically correct theory brigade with racists retorts in hand continue to push their Ivory Tower impractical theories agenda & for many well meaning but wrong and not in spiritual lands out there, but one then wonders if out there in the outback yonder , there’s that same 1978 black man who ever so often still gives that wiry smile.
And Mr Obama , psephologically speaking it’s a fact your margin over Hillary is completely because of your 90%+ of Democrat blacks voting for you. But if the policys of yous two are so similar & both are Democrats , why 90+% for just one candidate, you ? It’s the % imbalance queried otherwise why not 90%+ of white voters for Hillary , is that OK ? Then she’d be delegate leader ! We could have also questioned psephologically speaking why majoritys of whites & Hispanic vote for Hillary (they all racist ?). Hillary’s % white/hispanic voting majoritys are also true , but not with the Obama decisive black based % imbalance.And surely not solely caused by a few comments from the black President Bill re historical problems with Rev Jackson over 3 races 84 ,88 & 92.
These are all legitimate non racist psephological issues. So ‘a drovers dog’ says Obama is the deemed black trail blazor of hope for final equality but what against a white Democrat , the Democrats being the black thinking Party , an indictment against the Party & all its history ? Instead , perhaps answer questions & perhaps accept the psephogical role of races in elections, and confronting it may jump that hurdle , and finally talk of solutions. But not with you Mr Obama , with your phony ‘a more perfect union’ message , now forever tainted as the Mentor of the Philly speaker,the divisive RevWright rather than a Martin Luther King.
And if all other things were the same , but HRC black & Obama white, I’d still vote HRC
The finns, good luck with your rewriting of history ie. Hillary lost due to her gender and Bill. Whilst this simplistic analysis might suit your purposes, Hillary’s consistently high negative ratings are NOT based on these factors. And by the way, she’s going to win the nomination isnt she?? Why are the maths any different now??
And Ron whilst your posts as are silly as ever, I have previously posted here months ago that I was worried that US voters would not vote for a black president. Obama has succeeded in painting himself as the different/ non-establishment candidate rather than the black one. I hope the US voters back him, as after all they have voted in GWB twice (well once at least)
#867, Ron – [But if the policys of yous two are so similar & both are Democrats , why 90+% for just one candidate, you?] – Ba, ba, black sheep, have you any wool? No sir, no sir, because the White Elephant has not left the building (Elvis had), it is still there in the room.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/09/AR2008050901417.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
Aww, it’s all diddums, diddums for the banshee queen on Poll Bludger this weekend.
Just when I thought that Barack was gonna get all misty eyed with Hillary and hand over $25 million of his supporters’ money to her and tell her “No hard feelings”, along comes Michelle Obama to snap him back into reality. The problem with rich whiteys is they rarely have to live with the consequences of their life choices. A battler like Michelle Obama aint gonna let Hillary off this time though. Give ‘em hell, Michelle.
Adam @ 860 -
I’m not sure that Clinton is “smarter than everyone else,” either intellectually or politically. However, does being smart necessarily count for much. I dare say that Peter Costello is smarter than Ben Chifley, but have no doubt that he would be an abject failure as PM.
As for the differences in how the parties pick their candidate, I believe the Democrats have the better system. I don’t believe McCain is the best candidate the Repubs could have put up and had their contest been longer/closer his many limitations probably would have been more fully exposed. As it is he’s had a fairly easy ride, but that is about to come to an end. Will he self-destruct when the blowtorch is applied? I predict he will.
Relax r/Ron –
You are dwelling in the past again. Why not look forward to a better world, made safer and more inclusive under the Dems, led by President Obama, of mixed race?
After all, just survey what there is for a progressive to be enthusiastic about:
*Obama is committed to positive change in US outlook.
*He isn’t beholden to the Israeli lobby because his money doesn’t come from the ‘usual suspects’ list of benefactorsm but from small donors everywhere.
*He will talk to anyone, if it will help keep the peace.
*He has not threatened to obliterate the people of any nation.
*He is not a card-carrying member of the military/industrial comlplex.
*He will get the troops out of Iraq.
So, now the nomination race is effectively over, why not get behind the Dems and support Obama against that Repug bastard McCain?
Walllowing in denial and baleful bitterness, as you presently are, will just make you even more depressed.
FINNS
#870
‘because the White Elephant has not left the building (Elvis had), it is still there in the room.’
Absolutely yes FINNS , and regretably so are the problems to solve.
Perhaps sitting in such high Ivory Towers the messages get lost in flight
blindoptimist @ 861 Yes.
& could we at your leisure have a more fleshed out version of
…politics in America needs to be re-booted somehow…
Please.
Im struggling with this in the nicest possble way. Perhaps we are watching the prelude.
Oh & Ron the butterflies have just crashed the cage… ambulances etc… later.
BTW non special now? Sad.
After over a year of the graph showing the Hillary Clinton superdelegate lead graph – and watching oh so very slowly sliding southwards, and then earlier today the tables turned and Obama took the lead – well – its so nice to see the updated graph on DCW now showing Obama’s lead.
http://bp1.blogger.com/_qJGvnOCBQcA/SCZdReRsXnI/AAAAAAAAAUY/k0olnFgVRgY/s1600-h/image001.gif
It’s just a feel good moment.
Fins at 870
We are talking about the White Elephant with the yellow pant suite – right?
codger @875 -a more fleshed out version of
…politics in America needs to be re-booted somehow…
codger – Try this – Just think of Obama as a re-boot with the installation of a new mother board, plenty of RAM, a sophisticated sound card, and excellent wireless inter-connectivity.
These are the raw stats. Now, you tell me which community has turned the primaries into a RACE based primaries. All the other communities are reasonable even handed, except the Black community. As Mr. Ron said: [But if the policys of yous two are so similar & both are Democrats , why 90+% for just one candidate, you?]
white male with a college degree preferred Obama to Clinton, 59 to 37 percent.
white male without a college degree preferred Clinton to Obama by a 55 to 36 percent margin.
white women preferred Clinton to Obama by a 65 to 32 percent margin
Asian preferred Clinton to Obama by a 71 to 26 percent margin
Hispanics preferred Clinton to Obama 61 percent to 37 percent.
Black preferred Obama to Clinton by 90+
jaundiced view at 878
And with a good VP selection we are talking a dual processor architecture and combine this with good grass-roots bandwidth and establish internet IO channels!
established
Fins at 879
It would be really interesting to get a breakdown on the educated versus non-educated composition of these white women. Do you have any numbers?
And this from a newspaper that supported Clinton:
“The last time the Clintons had to make a big exit was at the end of Bill Clinton’s second term as president — and they made a complete and utter hash of that historic moment. Having survived the Monica Lewinsky ordeal, you might have thought the Clintons would be on their best behavior.
Instead, a huge scandal erupted when it became known that Mrs. Clinton’s brothers, Tony and Hugh Rodham, had lobbied the president on behalf of criminals who then received presidential pardons or a sentence commutation from Mr. Clinton. …
It wasn’t just the pardons that sullied the Clintons’ exit from the White House. They took furniture and rugs from the White House collection that had to be returned. And they received $86,000 in gifts during the president’s last year in office, including clothing (a pantsuit, a leather jacket), flatware, carpeting, and so on. In response to the outcry over that, they decided to repay the value of the gifts.
So class is not a Clinton forte.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/10/opinion/10herbert.html?_r=1&ref=opinion&oref=slogin
from a comment over the the DCW site …