Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,725 Comments
As the first, I’ll offer my own toast: “Yes he can!”
KR, I dozed off earlier…must have been Turnbull’s budget-droning. I was going to say, the signs in the US are not good. Are you aware of the site http://www.businesscycle.com ? The site is run by ECRI, forecasters who claim a perfect record. They reckon they have never wrongly called a recession in the US. They are predicting a recession this year.
The SD tally is comin’ along sweetly, Catrina.
And maybe things are still crook in the finance sector:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1epxg3i.6YM&refer=home
just perused the last page of the previous WV thread.
what a good read. sometimes PB excels….sometimes it doesn’t.
tomorrow…well who knows who could show up.
special shout out to EC for #1431
I agree, Harry…gives new meaning to bludging.
Obama +4 SDs for today so far. Here’s a thread to keep an eye on: http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/13/124114/647/831/514806
538’s prediction is Clinton by 39 points and 105,00 votes: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/west-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html
But after all what does it matter - its only 5 electoral college votes, surely with some of that audacity of hope Obama will make up these votes with very likely prospects such as North Carolina or Georgia or maybe even Texas.
Is this the beginning of the end for the false consciousness Comrade Bob Bollard?
ESJ - I wouldn’t get too cocky, given your supreme record as a tipster so far.
3
blindoptimist
yes, BO (good initials for an Obama supporter!), ECRI are the most respected outfit in the business, and they’ve been pointing this way for some time.
And in that Bloomberg article, you just know this isn’t going to end pretty. Inflation is on the move while they’re holding interest rates under water and pumping printed money into the banking system like there’s no tomorrow.
The ‘free market’ failed big time, and now the smartest guys in the room are desperately trying to bail it out while telling everyone that the system works just fine, just needs a little ‘help’.
Right!
11
Pancho
What record would that be, then? LOL
What the latest in terms of no. of pledged and SDs left, and what % of these Obama needs??
ESJ #10 If you want a Marxist explanation of what’s happening I’d go with Gramsci rather than Engels in this case:
“When the old world is dying and the new is yet to be born, many morbid symptoms prevail.”
PS: I ain’t no comrade of yours so please desist from flinging that appellation in my direction.
Obama- 1591.5 PDs, 283 SDs, total of 1874.5 with 150 needed for 2024.5
Clinton - 1425.5 PDs, 270.5 SDs, total of 1696 with 328.5 needed for 2024.5
Of course this end goal will probably change when MI and FL are sorted out, and in the short term if Childers wins in Mississippi today 2025 becomes the finish line again. For a while.
Mornin’ Bludgers,
The word for today is GRIM - and I don’t mean a fairy tale.
If you’re an Obama supporter then the polls are suggesting that Hillary’s win today will be a monumental pasting. GRIM.
Moreover it will put a spring in the step of the Hillary crowd who will spend the rest of the day and night crowing about how this proves the Kid is unelectable. GRIM.
On the other side, Obama’s SD lead over Hillary has extended overnight from 8 yesterday to 11 today. GRIM for RHC.
And Obama’s national average lead over Hillary has been clipped slightly overnight from 5.4 to 5.1.
Pancho and what am I alleged to have tipped? Examine the record there are some here who are quite the hedgers. You of course have been strident and up front in your support from the get go which I acknowledge.
Comrade Bob, I chuckled at your list the other night, an interesting response, of course I dont intend to defend every massacre and act of evil committed in history which is obviously designed to give you the retort that neither should you for communism but the essential point is under capitalism you might get dictators, famines etc whereas under communism you always get dictators and famines, which is why Kronstadt is a sore point no doubt - it proves Marxism only runs on dictatorship but is the original sin Kronstadt or the shutting down of the Constituent Assembly by old V.I.L?
Old Kirri - Keep on smiling old son!
So Hillary needs 69% of remaining delegates to reach 2025 and Obama needs 31%. Damn that maths
It’s interesting to note that back on 5 Feb the GOP ran a state convention in WV to elect 18 delegates to the National Convention. Today’s primary will elect a further 9. Back in February, the results were:
Huckabee 567 52% 18
Romney 521 47% 0
McCain 12 1% 0
Paul 0 0% 0
It will be interesting to see if the ‘Anyone But McCain’ vote is higher today than the recent averages of 25%.
CNN has just called WV for Clinton
FG - That is interesting. And it would not help Clinton’s narrative spin if they end up voting for 2 non-candidates in that odd part of the world.
How brave of them…
18
Edward StJohn
Don’t worry about that (not-so-fast) Eddy, every time I see another Bludger put you in your place I’m smiling, even more than usual.
So CNN hasn’t bothered to wait for any actual votes. Why didn’t they call it last week? The count was 0 - 0 then too.
Edwards is still on the ballot in WV - could be an interesting complication.
I’m going to back ESJ on this one. I can’t recall him posting an incorrect prediction. He may have been wishful, possibly even misguided, in some of his support for the Rodent, but he never said Howie would win.
I’m reading a novel about Charlemagne fighting the Moors by Calvino. The knights on either side can’t speak each other’s language. This is a problem because, when they clash, they abuse each other. The gravity of the insult hurled determines how much damage they need to inflict on the other side to restore their pride. So the solution is to have translators who get called over to the two fighting knights to interpret for them, so they know whether to kill each other or just wound. Somehow, it reminded me of Pollbludger.
KR, I really hope you’re wrong, but in my less optimistic moments think you’re dead right….
Diogenes, I realise that there is much stirring in the chap’s posts, but I do recall early (but not necessarily ongoing) tips for both Howie and Hillary. But I do like the parable.
“Mountain Momma, Take Me Home” LOL
With exit polls showing a two thirds majority in favour of the gas tax holiday, you kind of get a feel for the education level of West Virginia, eh?
Plunkin’ for Hillary!
Bread and circuses KR. They go down a treat with the masses in yesterday’s Rome and today’s West Virginia
So Hillary’s going on, (yeeeha!), but what does she want? She knows she cannot win this nomination without divine intervention,(or a klansman’s aim), so what will she be bargaining for?
Anyone who thinks she doesn’t know she’s finished hasn’t been listening to her stump speeches closely. Yesterday she was telling the nice folks of WV that no matter who the nominee was, they’d be all coming together to beat the Republicans in November. She’s been putting out these signals lately, and it lets everyone know she’s in a postion to bring Obama support. She’ll bargain with it, for sure.
But the question remains, what does she want? (Apart from her $20m hole filled!)
She wants to raise enough money for the campaign to pay back her loans. The moment she pulls out the campaign isn’t allowed to raise money.
I know exit polls are already out, but stuff the margin; I’m prediction 19 delegates to HRC, 9 to BHO for a net gain of 10 pledged delegates.
I’m basing this on three Congressional Districts each with 6 delegates. It’s unlikely that HRC will win these districts 5-1 (75% of the vote to hit that), but more likely she’ll get them all 4-2 (somewhere between 59% and 75%). The 10 At-Large delegates and PLEO will probably split either 6-4 or 7-3 (I lean towards 7-3) giving my delegate prediction.
So given the current delegate gaps, I reckon it’ll be a net result of no positive change for HRC after today and tomorrow’s superdelegate announcements.
The trouble with that strategy is that it costs more to contest these primaries than she is receiving in donations. So…the longer she stays in, the deeper her hole becomes.
35
Ferny Grover
They spent chicken sh!t in WV, coz they didn’t have to, and besides, the media is much cheaper there.
So she’ll go on national TV and rattle the tin again, coz you know, the mountain momma is comin’ back home, and she’ll get a fresh flood of sucker’s money.
But beyond this game, what does she want? She’s got bargaining power to either bring her weight behind Obama or take her bat and ball and go home.
Guess we’ll see soon enough.
Interesting poll from Rasmussen.
The Repugs are seriously on the nose. The Dems more trusted for the economy, government ethics and corruption, national security and the War of Terror.
BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security. And he says he doesn’t know much about the economy.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues
Why no numbers yet? Perhaps the good folk of WV keep losing count.
36 KR
There’s been virtually no speculation coming from the Hillary camp that she’s interested in VP (most of that speculation has come from the press). So what else? Attorney-General? Ambassador to UK? Nah…higher profile - Sec of State?
One of her camp was saying yesterday that they expect Obama to tank against McCain and Hillary will be lining up again in 2012 where she is ‘certain’ to be nominated.
Will they ever learn?
Here they come. WP may be more interesting than CNN to follow - they are tracking the Edwards numbers as well: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/wv/?jump=d
Very first results are in and Edwards is receiving 8%. As I suspected he may split some of that there Hillbilly cracker vote, thereby blunting the Clinton Tsunami and stuffing up her “come-back” spin.
Barack is winning Randolph County 53/41. It wont last so savour the moment.
37
Diogenes
Ah, the national amnesia! I’m sure Obama will recover their memory for them about which side McCain bats for! LOL
If the Repuglies think they’re going to be running a tough campaign on Obi’s ass, they can expect incoming, ballistic.
More interesting today will be the special election for a congressional seat in Mississippi. The Democrats have a real chance of taking another seat off the Republicans.
Forget West Virginia: a Hillary win means zero, it won’t change the overall picture.
41
Robert Bollard
Did ya know, Robert, that ‘is daddy worked in a mill?
Yep, it’s all identity politics and Edwards had a lock on the cracker vote in them thar parts.
44
Progressive
yeah, didn’t Childers miss a majority by a couple of hundred votes first time around?
Apparently both the RNC and DNC have been spending mega-bucks on this vote!
Which means the Repugs are sh!tting themselves it will be three in a row, and the grim reaper will be sharpenin’ his scythe for the fall.
I didn’t know Edwards was still on the ballot in WV.
Obama would be well advised to get Edwards on board his campaign, in some capacity, he’d be a lot of use campaigning for the Democrats in states like West Virginia, and Edwards would make an ideal Attorney General.
Kirribilli Removals: Yes mate, you’re correct! Childers nearly got over 50% on the first vote, there were two other Democrats in the field that day, so if the combined Democrat vote goes to him, he beats the Republican bloke!
Republicans this year have already lost supposedly safe seats in Illinois and Louisiana, a loss in supposedly very red state Mississippi would tend to suggest they’ll get their arses kicked well and truly in November.
We don’t talk about Edwards much here but his early withdrawal after SC was a huge boost for Obama. Obama really scored the trifecta in SC. He got a big win on PDs, Edwards pulled out and the “block” vote shifted to him 90% after being 60%. And he has Bill to thank for it.
Results for the MS-01 special election starting to come in at
http://www.swingstateproject.com/
Childers currently up 57-43, but they are saying that there is a huge turnout in DeSoto County, a strong Repub area that Davis won 81-17 on April 22.
The local WV pro-Clinton moron politician who said, ‘We can win this thing 80:20. No! 90:10!’, must have pushed Clinton staffers even closer to suicide than they already were.
Once those kind of expectations get out there, a real-life count of votes (currently 62:30 on 2%, but will probably get a bit better for HRC as it goes) is always going to be a disappointment rather than a triumph.
The real news of the day is: No withdrawal. No retreat. No surrender. And how is that ‘draft John Kerry as compromise candidate’ campaign going, anyhoo?
Which America is he in ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws
KR #45
Through the mansions of fear
Through the mansions of pain
I watched my Daddy walk to the mill in the rain
And now I’m a corporate lawyer you see
My Daddy might win me the odd primary
(With apologies to Bruce Springsteen)
Robert, I get the sense that Clinton won’t try the ‘I’m coming back’ line today. I think she understands it will just annoy the bigwigs out there who are gently trying to turn everybodys focus to the general election and don’t need her implying that she will prolong the battle any further than it needs to be.
I get the feeling that she just wants to play it out, and throw in the towel either on May 20 or June 3 - and would prefer to do it before Dean and Pelosi step in with their public humiliating ‘game over’ endorsements. Which they might be tempted to do if she tries to push the rhetoric too far.
I imagine the Dems would prefer, in order of preference, for the battle to end:
1. With Hillary conceding
2. Superdelegates ending it after June 3
3. Superdelegates ending it before she concedes
4. The battle ending with a convention vote.
That would be their preference anyway.
WV is one area where the ‘cultural politics’ explanation for the Republican rise has something to it, Bush carried counties that voted for Mondale in 1984. Still Califronia has many more votes than WV and cultural politics has made it safe Democrat. Pragmatically it is a worthwhile swap. Still would you want a Democratic party without the working class?
Washington Post is calling WV for Huckabee
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/wv/?jump=d
Max,
I reckon that’s just a graphic bug. The listing of candidates is different at the bottom of the page to that at the top (when showing the Republican results).
GR: Interesting points. However, even though BO ain’t the working class candidate, if he wins in November it will be in part because he wins enough of the working class vote. And how much is enough?
All of the bangin’ on about whites, blacks, ‘hard-working’ (-class) Americans, those without college degrees, ‘elites’ etc, can become a demographers’ game and obscure the game: you have to win more than 50% of the vote in enough states to have a majority of convention delegates. How you patch them together it is up to you. So far he’s shown the ability to patch ‘em together okay.
For example, he’ll win Oregon handily which has a negligible black population. While it ain’t WV, I also don’t think it’s because OR is a state comprised entirely of latte-sipping elites, as the cruder stereotypes would have it.
Al at 34
I’m thinking a delegate advantage of 10-12 for Clinton from WV.
No Bug - it is called for Huckabee cos he already has 18 WV delegates from the last round. Hence he is already the winner there with only 9 more up for grabs.
Al,
The Republican WV convention was actually held in February - Huckabee unsurprisingly won pretty easily, and was consequently awarded 18 delegates. Only 9 delegates are awarded today, so he has already ‘won’ the state.
I was mucking about before. Need something to keep me amused
Ahh, that makes sense then Pancho. McCain will pick up the 9 from today although. Interesting to see Romney with 5% and Guiliani with another 3%. That’s 25% of Republican voters today voting against McCain, and 20% aren’t even voting for a candidate in the race.
Lowndes coming in for MS-01 Special Election. Davis won it 58-41 on April 22, but so far breaking 59-41 to Childers this time. Good signs for Childers. Childers up 53-47 at the moment with 153/462 precincts counted.
The victory speech in WV is now done and dusted:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/watching-west-virginia/
The precis? “Even though I know I can’t win, I’m going to keep going, simply because I’ve come this far.”
The irony? The message in her speech was ‘every vote must be counted, everyone must have their say’ before any conclusions are reached about the Democratic nominee. She delivered that victory speech with a big 12% of the vote in WV counted. The 10 o’clock news won’t wait forever, you know.
SimonH,
I love how you guys love democracy so much, you just want it to stop.
“8:17 PM. In its polite, if somewhat perfunctory tone as well as in its substance, this really really sounds like a speech made by a woman with her eyes on the Vice Presidency.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/clinton-wins-west-virginia.html
GG @ 65:
1. ‘You guys’? Is there some conspiracy I’m a part of, that even I’m not aware of?
2. I’ve already expressed my view that I don’t want it to stop, now that we’re just getting to the funny/pathetic/bathetic bit. This is surely more entertaining that November can be.
3. I hope you’re sending a stern letter to the Edwards, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Richardson camps protesting at their ugly and unDemocratic decision to withdraw from the race, merely because they had inadequate funds, inadequate support and no chance of winning the nomination. Why won’t they let the people have their say?
Clinton logic:
This race must continue because every state must vote and every vote must count. Democracy is paramount. The people must speak.
But after that
The Party must trash the result of the peoples votes and give the nomination to me me me.
The public’s vote means everything
The public’s vote means nothing
The Clinton camp spent like drunken sailors in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana in a last grasp at winning the nomination. It failed.
They spent money they didn’t have. Now the campaign has a debt of $20Million of which $11Million is the Clintons.
EVERYTHING they do now is aimed at getting as much of that back as possible.
Matt Stoller looks over some recent polling by The Washington Post (sample size 1,122) and finds Six Signs Democrats are Going to Romp.
No. 6 is interesting.
The question and results in the poll:
Type, Comfortable, Uncomfortable
A Woman President, 84, 16
An African-American President, 88, 12
A new 72 year old President, 60, 39
People make their own calls about staying in a race or withdrawing. That is their choice. You know, democracy in action.
I am delighted that Hillary will continue all the way to the convention and push Obama to win the nomination on the floor of the convention. One thing for sure, Obama has missed every opportunity to take Hillary out. The record number of participants in the Democratic Election process is a good thing not an inconvenience.
Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.
Why don’t you just enjoy the excitement of the Democratic process instead of reveliing in the too easy negativity of the haughty cynic?
GG - When was the last time the Dems had a black candidate?
Interesting differences emerging between the Clinton Campaign and Obama Campaign websites.
The first thing you get on the Clinton site is a request for money, and once you click past that to get to the actual campaign site - a good third of the screen is taken up with requests for a donation to keep the fight going. Over on the Obama site the top item in the roiling lost of topics is a link to the Red Cross and a call to the American public to help out disaster victims. Here we are still in a primary race and Obama is stepping up and showing national leadership and putting his internet machine into play for the Red Cross.
This is a really interesting stat.
One would assume that this is caused by an unusually long primary season yes? Normally, with the nomination tied up by now, wouldn’t a state such as West Virginia (which votes late in the primary season) usually only have one person to vote for?
Of course, this a incorrect if this isn’t an ‘unusually long’ nomination process. I’m not sure either way (given i know very little about the history of the process).
Hillary is no longer campaigning for the Presidency of the USA.
She is simply revenue raising and horse trading.
Chris Matthews:
“It’s almost like she’s the Al Sharpton of white people.”
Or more importantly, when was the last time the Democratic primary campaign wasn’t a “dead rubber” by the time WV came around?
We’re up to 2025 as the delegates to win now. Childers has been declared the winner in MS-01, making the Congressional District blue for the first time since 1995.
Things are really looking ugly for the GOP in November. Three big special election losses now.
Pancho,
Probably Jesse Jackson?
So?
Al @ 77,
Not sure whether this is the last time, but I know it was definitely important when JFK won the Dem nomination in 1960.
Leading up to the 2000 and 2004 election the accepted spread of core supporters was:
Democrats 44%
Republicans 43%
now the core support stands at:
Democrats 51%
Republicans 38%
The GOP is in a world of hurt.
Why all this Hillary hatred? Obama would make a better president but either would be a huge improvement on Bush, Hillary has much support but Obama has slightly more. Any serious presidential candidate has to be ruthless, ambitious and have a huge ego.
MS-1 Childers is pretty conservative he would make Hillary look like ultra-left.
I couldn’t see this posted anywhere else, but
http://www.nbc4i.com/midwest/cmh/politics.apx.-content-articles-CMH-2008-05-13-0029.html
GG - sorry, I meant candidate for President, as in nominee. My garble. My badly made point is that history is being made on one front, so I see no reason for it to be pushed on others. But I think the WV as ‘rubber stamp’ argument is more salient.
Re Childers - woohoo! I guess those in the deep south are really terrified by that liberal Obama.
GG @ 77: I am enjoying the process. Enormously. Even though it now has an appeal that I wouldn’t quite call “excitement”. You enjoy your way, and I’ll enjoy my way: that’s democracy in action!
We wouldn’t want any of the too-easy negativity of the haughty critic creeping in here, would we? Whatever wise person said way back in March that “The only roaring around here is from the Obama Lambs and Ding Dongs as they relentlessly try to convince themselves and each other that Hillary is finsihed [sic]“, they certainly weren’t haughty or negative.
Oh, by the way, nice recycling of a key Hillary talking-point. Only you got it wrong: the official talking-point is that no Democratic candidate has won the Presidential election without carrying WV since 1916. One small problem with the thesis that doesn’t require much delving into ancient history: if Gore had won (or for the pedants, been officially ruled to have won) Florida in 2000, and Kerry had won Ohio in 2004, WV would have been relevant to the result how exactly?
Looking ahead ….
With WV done and dusted Obama will pick up around 8 of the states pledged delegates, putting him just 25 pledged delegates away from the holding the majority. We have Kentucky and Oregon in one week - and these two states represent 5x anything the West Virgina can offer in terms of delegate numbers and its here that Obama puts the final lock on the nomination. He should pick up more than 42 pledged delegates, placing him as undisputed winner of the pledged delegate race. He currently needs about 150 delegates to take the nomination by the numbers and by this time next week that will be down to 100 just from pledged delegates from today and next week.
I expect super delegates to continue endorsements of Obama over the coming week, and in the process a number of defections. By the end of next week I’m guessing Obama will be about 70 delegates away from clinching the deal. What will be interesting to watch is how the end-game plays out. Obama can pick up another 30 odd pledged delegates in Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico - which means that he really only needs 40 super delegates to close the deal.
GG @ 71
“Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.”
While this statement is undoubtedly true, as you are always correct, it really is just an example of post hoc data trawling by Hillary to find any straw to cling to. If you look at data from enough angles and permutations, you can always find something to fit your theory.
Panch,
A real cynic might argue that given the possibility/likelihood of a Democratic victory at the end of the year, why is the party indulging in a social engineering experiment by having to choose between a black candidate and a woman? Why not stick with a tried and true (white rich guy) candidate?
History doesn’t run to a timetable.
88 GG
I belive that cynic’s name is Adam and the candidate is Gore!
GG - true. But maybe the groundswell that puts the party in a strong position is the same force that has offered a black guy and a woman. Intra-party reform is overdue and Washington money not holding all the cards and being able to direct things as it has seems promising from here.
Geoff @ 82: A fair point, I think, to call ixnay on whatever Hillary-hatred might be around. Completely true that Obama does have a big streak of ruthlessness, ambition and ego in him– or he would never have got to where he is.
I think the Hillary-baiting is in part a reaction (or over-reaction) to the long-time writings of a small group of hardcore Hillary-supporters/ Obama-loathers on the site, for whom anything which might be viewed as an assertion of fact in another forum (e.g. “Hillary can’t win”) qualifies the writer as an ‘Obamabot’ who not only politically supports Obama, but also believes that their guy can do no wrong and is in cahoots with all Obama supporters. (See GG’s “you guys” reference at #65.)
As is appropriate for a psephological website, I try to keep my contributions to assessing matters of the ballot-box. My opinions about who, e.g., has the better healthcare policy, aren’t terribly relevant; my opinion about whose healthcare policy will fly better with the voters, may be. In truth, there aren’t clear lines and personal political persuasion will often creep in to some extent; but I do think there are dozens of better-suited websites if people want a straight-up political debate. The kind of ‘HRC is a lying cow’, ‘Obama is a no-policies demagogue’ debate that things occasionally descend into, adds nothing to what PB is here to do.
SimonH,
My point then and my point now is that the contest is still ongoing. If you go back further, you will probably find even earlier examples of PBers declaring the race completed. And all manner of putrid anti Hillary comments are a feature of this blog. That I use acerbic bouquets of banter to occaissionally pierce the Obama supporters’ hubrication is neither here nor there.
It’s mostly colour Simon! Granted some colours are annoying…a little more from WP if you’ll indulge me:
“Customer: “That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not half an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it being tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.”
Pet-shop owner: “Well, he’s, he’s, ah, probably pining for the fiords.”
2:57 p.m., Yeager Airport, Charleston, W.Va.: A steep descent brings Clinton’s plane to Charleston’s hilltop airport. After an appropriate wait, she steps from the plane and pretends to wave to a crowd of supporters; in fact, she is waving to 10 photographers underneath the airplane’s wing. She pretends to spot an old friend in the crowd, points and gives another wave; in fact, she was waving at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/13/AR2008051302862.html?hpid=topnews
Ixnay and amscray were used widely in “The Three Stooges” shorts
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ixnay
Apt SimonH.
Hillary Clinton, declaring “this race isn’t over yet,” West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary. Any non partisan psephologist knows these Democrats are a pre condition to win POTUS
71% Count , Hillary 65% to Obama 28% is decisive Once there are no black voters (who have always voted 80% Democrat historically) , Hillary’s advantages over Obama become obvious & as her greater electability
93 Pancho
classic stuff
I’ve no doubt these types of things happen all the time, and with all candidates, but they do show how narrow the view of the MSM really is, and how their relevance is rapidly eroded as it’s power is misappropriated on a daily basis.
That modern politics panders to this charade is even more telling.
95
Ron Says: “West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary.”
Huh? Did you just like…miss the last 12 weeks or something?
A nice page here I think. It shows state by state results of presidential elections 1972-2004 and 2008 Democratic nomination results in one concise table.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_results_president_1972_2004.htm
Anyhoo, enough of the navel gazing and on with why we’re here:
66-27 to HRC in WV with 76% of booths reporting. No reason to think those proportions will change significantly. (HRC trending upwards and O downwards from something like 60-31 in very early counting, but not enough votes left to provide significantly more bounce.) While 2 counties haven’t yet reported any results, safe to say that HRC will win every single county. In Jefferson County, a true geographic outlier hung out on the far NE-rn tip of the state, she fell over the line 49:46 in by far the closest contest.
McCain only just fell over the prestigious 75% mark, against effectively no opposition. (I know that Ron Paul has never pulled out, but you might as well when you finish 3rd in a 2-horse race and get half the vote of a non-contestant.) Could someone who could be bothered more than me, say whether an unopposed candidate has ever done this poorly in GOP primaries before, this deep into the calendar? It’s not just the fact that it’s May– it’s also that his last real opposition dropped out months ago.
GG @ 92: If you mean the contest is ongoing merely because one candidate has not formally conceded: a football match is still ongoing if one side is up by 5 goals 20 minutes into the last quarter; but commentators who say “it’s all over” are employing a little artistic license based on their judgment that in the time available, it is not realistic for the opposition to make up the deficit. Who but a too-easily-negative pedant would complain that they were technically wrong?
And others make “putrid… comments”. You make “acerbic bouquets of banter”.
I think you just rested your own case, dude.
I don’t think it matter who wins the Repugs are shot.
Old Kirri,
The difference between you and I sir, is that I act out of love and you act out of hate.
Hatred of Howard, Hatred of Bush, Hatred of Clinton, Hatred of Gordon Brown. etc Hatred of anyone who disagrees with your myopic world view. If there is any doubt one only need read your disparaging comments about Ron and others on this blog.
I am a realist, but a realist imbued with a love of our shared common humanity. We are all flawed vessels but still beautiful at the same time.
Go in peace,
EStJ
Here is the evidance:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-State-Primaries-Rdp.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
They were routed in Mississippi. If anyone was unsure of how the election was going to go this provides the evidence. That makes it a hat trick of very safe Repug seats that the Democrates have one. This was the safest and most redneck of them all. It looks like the Confederates will finally loose the war.
Triton 98
That site demonstrates what I referring to about with data trawling. Many statements about political history are meaningless.
There are five states that have had primaries so far where the winning party always won that state. They are Louisiana, Tennesse, Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas. HRC won 3 and BHO won two. Either could get up after they won the primary in their respective states and say (for eg) “I won Louisiana by 15%. The voters have shown that I am the best person to win Louisiana for the Democrat Party in the general election. And history shows us that if you win Louisiana, you win the White House!”
When Ron is backing Hillary Clinton, I know she’s in even more trouble!
A stunning victory for the Democrats tonight in Mississippi! Unless things drastically change in the next 6 months, the Republicans are headed for meltdown in November.
And there is probably going to be another by election, this time in a seat that is marginal. Due to a Republican being caught having a child with his girlfriend. The Repugs will be forced to spend even more money the haven’t got. Nothing like a moralist being caught with his pants down! Hee Hee Hee!
The longest political suicide note ever written, in black dripping ink, by the Democrats. If Obama is not a political coward, he would have come and fought like hell in WV because WV has the demographic that he needs to win over as in November.
Instead, he ran away and got trashed by someone who is supposed to be dead and buried. So the lame excuse now is that “Oh, we didn’t campaign in WV”. And for someone who is dead and buried, the EVs is still looking very stiffed.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
May 13 - Electoral Votes: Clinton 280 McCain 241 Ties 17
May 13 - Electoral Votes: Obama 237 McCain 290 Ties 11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Chris B, reality check for you: the Democratic candidate who won the special election in Mississippi is pro-life, supporter of home schooling, has an A+ rating from the gun lobby and is an economic conservative. Put simply, he is well to the right of about 90% of the Democrats in Congress and arguably even further to the right of McCain.
The Republicans are going to cop a hiding in the Senate (they’ll lose at least 4) and an even bigger hiding in the House. But to suggest its “game over” for McCain is laughable. Have a look at the polls lately? (and yes I have allowed for all the usual caveats regarding opinion polls, not least of all in a country like the US). How do you explain McCain’s strong polling in a number of states that have not voted GOP since 1988? The GOP attack on race and experience hasn’t even started. Whatever they come up with will make those Willie Horton ads look like being slapped across the face with a wet piece of lettuce
Americans think their nation is on the wrong track and want change. But they don’t want a Mondale, McGovern or even a Kerry as POTUS. That’s what the Democrats never seem to be able to get into their thick heads.
This election is well and truly up for grabs and if Barack prevails (which, incidentally, would not disappoint me in the slightest) it will be by a 2 or 3 percent margin max.
ChrisB @ 103:
Sorry, but I think that’s a rather stupid way to describe an election result in Mississippi in 2008.
Superdelegate update …
DNC Awais Khaleel (WI) and DNC Lauren Wolfe (MI) endorse Obama.
The DCW website is showing the count at 284/270 advantage Obama (but I think they have a temporary glitch and numbers should actually be 285/270). Also, the news from Chris B at 103 shift the number of delegates required to win the nomination by 0.5 to 2025.
102
Edward StJohn
Sorry?
You’re coming on all saintly and it does not compute.
We all know your type Eddy, passive aggresive and a serial abuser.
This is the holier than thou ‘passive’ side.
Catrina summed you up well I thought.
Four letters, starts with ‘d’ ends with ‘k’
Remember, I’m the ‘plagiarist’ you went at with snide comments and greasy innuendo? And then pulled the stunt that I’d called you a sexual deviant, when I had not.
So don’t come the raw prawn with me Eddy.
You have not changed, not even one of your spots.
109
Callum
I think it’s called poetic licence Callum, better ask to see it!
But it is a crushing blow to the Repuglies, as they spent lots of dough and even sent Darth Vader (aka Cheney) down there.
That worked, huh?
KR @ 112.
My problem with that sort of rhetoric is that it evidences a sort of moral triumphalism that does the progressive side of politics no favours with the general electorate.
Hillary 167,554 votes Obama 71,925
WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates despite the uninformed opinion here and a State strong in manufacture.
The manufacturing employment base is why the State represents a traditional American worker and therefore why it mostly votes Democrat.
Having the edication base listed above and the manufacturing employment mix , naturally its people will not vote for an “elitist Liberal” like Obama whether he is black or white.
Such typical “labor voters” will vote for a centre labor type person like Hillary offering real solutions not dreamy drivel unrelated to their lives.
The 67% vote for Hillary proves this despite the racism comments of some Obamabots and why the SD’s should dismiss Obama
108 Chris from Edgecliff Reality check for you. This has seat has never been won by a Democrat. As I said, its a redneck seat, its the third very safe seat the Democrats have one. The polls will change once the election proper starts. Here are the issues that will win the election in a landslide. Not completely in order.
1. Its the economy stupid (Bill Clinton). A recession to be precise.
2. The Iraq war.
3. Hurricane Katrina
4. The Repugs a flat broke.
5. The Democrats are filthy rich.
6. The massive talent on the Democrats side. Barrack. Hillary. Bill and Al Gore.
7. The Democrats have mastered the Internet The Repugs haven’t.
8. The Dumbest/most unpopular president ever.
Shall I go on?
Re. my comment at 110 - the DCW numbers do not include Lauren because she is representing MI (and we all know that for the moment MI doesn’t count). As such - the DCW count is correct and the Obama lead on super delegates is 13.5 (or 20.5 after adding the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 290 (284+6)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
109 Callum. Then you don’t understand American politics.
He who celebrates in May cries in November.
The Confenderates still don’t think they lost the war. I am refering to the November election where the Repugs may lose
118 Edward StJohn. Want to put some money on that? I should get very good odds.
119 Chris B Got interupted and forgot to finish.
Repugs may lose the abilty to filibuster. Thus huge changes can finally be made in the USA.
“WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates”
Are sure about that ron/Ron?
‘All this brings me to Hillary Clinton’s proud assertion that she is the candidate of the uneducated white worker. It is of course, precisely why she’s likely to win the West Virginia primary today by a lopsided 75:25 or maybe a 60:40 margin. One news program I watched about the West Virginia primary yesterday included an interview with a Clinton supporter, in that state, an older woman who said she couldn’t vote for Obama “because he’s a Muslim.” The reporter responded, “Well, for the record, you know he says he’s a Christian.” The woman replied, “Well I don’t believe him.” In West Virginia, one in four residents doesn’t have a high school diploma. That compares to one in five nationally. I’m guessing this woman was one of that one in four. Only one in seven West Virginians holds a bachelor’s degree, compared with one in four nationally.’
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/lindorff/096
Personally i think Obama’s weakness amoungst the white working class is clearly exadurated. The fact about most of those “OLDER” White voters that vote Hillary, is that half of them are female. Most of them prefer Hillary because she is a woman. I have no problem with this but it is a shame that when Obama’s performace against Hillary, with white voters is compaired, the numbers are not put in that context.
Actually Chris B, Jamie Lloyd Whitten held the district for the Democratic Party from 1941 to 1993 and is the longest serving US Representative ever.
109 Callum To put you in the picture. Between the 1930’s and now the Republicans and the Democrats switched sides. The Ku Klux Klan, which had/has connections with the Confederate army and the Southern Baptists, used to assasinate Republicans on a regular basis. Now they belong to the Republican party, and laws to do with civil liberties have not been able to be passed because of the conservative south. Among many other issues.
124 Al According to an article I read on the Votemaster (I think), it was never held by the Repugs.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Something interesting in the exit polls is that 62% of the poll respondents think that Clinton is going to win in November. Of the poll respondents that voted for Clinton, 90% of Clinton voters think that Clinton is going to win the nomination.
One could conclude that voters in WV have difficulty with basic arithmetic.
I may stand to be corrected. But I think thats where I read it.
In fact I am sure because he gave it an R10+ rating. Which means its extremely safe. The other two seats the Democrats won were R7+. One of them had a swing of 25%.
ChrisB,
I am interested only in debate and discussion not vulgar contests about money.
Kirri
I am sorry that you feel so angry! Hope tomorrow is a better day for you!
If only the seat of Gippsland would swing 25%
130 Edward StJohn Why on earth do you think I am angry? All I am doing is stating fact.
I dont think you are angry Chris B, i was referring to poor old Kirri his post at 111 was indicative of unresolved anger.
Sorry I misread that I did’t see Kirri.
ESJ, in the words of the late, great David McComb, you have an “aphorism for every occasion”
Chris B, for sheer amusement value, please indulge me a prediction for November in terms of percentage and electoral college. If you want to take a crash course in presidential politics first, then by all means.
Also, I may stand corrected, but I think you’ll find that the seat won by the Democrats tonight was previously held up until 1994 when it was lost in the Newt-slide
As for Democratic filibuster-proof majorities, simply having the numbers in not enough. I can think of at least 5 Democrat Senators who are more conservative than some of their Republican colleagues - I’m thinking along the lines of Tester, Webb, Casey, Johnson and Lieberman, the self-proclaimed “Independent Democrat”. The fact is the current Senate is quite possibly the most conservative ever - dividing Senators into Republicans and Democrats is very artificial I’m afraid
Myself @ 113 re KR @ 112.
Just to clarify, I meant Chris B’s rhetoric, not your own KR. I generally find your commentary to be good natured.
127
Catrina
Unlike the butterfly farmers of Pollbludgerdom, eh?
before people think i am picking fights, my ‘aphorism for every occasion’ comment was in reference to esj @ 118
135 Chris from Edgecliff Spot on with the fillibuster proof. The only time that has ever happened in the mid sixties, Democrats crossed the floor to block civil rights issues.
I can’t find where I read it. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that it was an R+10
Repug seat, here is a bit of the history.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
136 Callum Can you expalin why fact is rhetoric?
No problems Callum, no confusion this end.
(Except that I’m doing a re-instal on one computer and using another! LOL)
140 Spell check. explain.
Chris from E re 135
But you would have to concede it appears to be a very large wave building against the Republicans?
It really is Obama’s to lose - assuming he does the sane thing and tacks right when he is confirmed as the nominee even with the racism factor it will be hard to take him down as a liberal in the current climate?
136 Callum To help your confusion.
Fact
A thing that has actually happened or that is really true.
Rhetoric
Artificial eloquence; language that is showy and elaborate but largely empty of clear ideas or sincere emotion.
If you read your history you will find I am quoting fact.
Arvo Bludgers,
leanin’ on yer bloody picks and shovels again eh and only a ton or so’s comments to date about this Meme Altering victory for Senator Clinton.
Wouldn’t work in an iron lung, you lot!
Tues May 13:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=A9G_RnjzXipIWSQAcRkDwLAF
“Clinton is now an “understudy candidate,” waiting in the wings to see if Obama catches the flu.”
Or more likely, hoping beyond hype that The Kid cops a swiftboat amidships or a shiv between the ribs in a Beltway backstreet at midnight.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191300/
Apart from her age, Hillary has many of the “qualities” of another famous American “understudy” by the name of Eve Harrington. Obi will need to have his back watched. Closely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_About_Eve
Interestingly, for the first time this campaign, CBet appear to have not closed their books while the voters of WV were exercising their democratic right. And there has been bubkes change in their market since yesterday. Gee whiz, wonder what this zippo board odds shift all means? It’s making my brain hurt. Perhaps the market is trying to communicate something. Do you have a take on this at all, Ron?
The Kid……………1.75
McBombster…….2.75
Brutusina…………6.00, but if you want to punt her, Dyno can recommend far juicier odds elsewhere:)
Thanx, Harry at 6.
The Dana Milbank WaPo piece at 93 gets my nod for link du jour so far, Pancho. Lovely to see the literary jetsom of Mark Twain still afloat on the mighty MSM.
Wonderfully wicked and truly vicious, Milbank is The Nasty American writ large.
Edgecliff Chris, are you still feeling confident about you wager on Alaska?
143 Edward StJohn What did I miss? That’s what I have been saying all along.
Oddly, one of the best articles I’ve read in a while about the next 6 months in Obama strategy, was written by a sports business writer:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=09c585ec-fda3-4138-83ad-7ea97fc5219a
Hey, I guess he understands the economics of horse-flesh, and so maybe human flesh ain’t that different? HRC supporters will complain about the opening paras which imply that the media have jumped to her various changes in tactical posture as her position got more desperate.
But the fundamental point he makes is sound: Obama has already gathered a large block of votes with an anomalous coalition of blacks, left-wing whites, anti-war voters of all political persuasions and first-time voters (esp the young).
Will his campaign try to do the very difficult and bring socially conservative rural whites and Hispanics into his fold; or will he target the difficult-but-winnable states mentioned in the article, and concede that states dominated by the above demographics (inc Florida), are beyond him?
The advantage he has over Kerry is that he can win places where Kerry was always a dead duck, while there has been little or no talk of him losing any heartland seats that Gore/Kerry carried by any margin.
Obama may well be the right candidate for the times. If he can’t win some 2004 losing states, McCain has too little margin for error. Trying to protect states as diverse as Colarado, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, New Mexico, Montana and the Carolinas as well as the established battleground of Ohio, all of which Obama has the resources to go after, leaves little time and cash for trying to get back some 2004 Kerry states like Wisconsin or a big prize like Michigan or Pennsylvania. While North and South Dakota are miniscule and unlikely prizes, the idea that a Repub candidate would have to devote resources to protecting them, is almost surreal. And (barring campaigning disaster which would make them irrelevant anyway) Obama takes off the table the chances of McCain winning back Washington state or Oregon.
Whereas for Clinton, her campaign would have been far more ‘traditional Democratic heartland (which includes ‘conservative Democrat’ white states like WV), plus Ohio and Florida’. While the prevailing conditions are more favourable in 2008, that approach didn’t work so well in 2004.
The outstanding question would be whether McCain would say vs Obama: ‘The picture as a whole looks iffy if we just try to defend the 2004 battlements; if you’re going to gamble, might as well gamble big and go down swinging’, and devote v substantial resources to win California, with a VP candidate selected to assist?
ESJ, there is a tsunami heading for the Republicans in Congress but I think McCain remains in reasonably good shape. I cannot ignore the lessons of recent electoral history in the US, not least of all the following:
1. it is very, very rare for any Democrats to surpass the 50% mark since World War 2 (not even Clinton could do it and Carter from memory was 50.1%);
2. there has only been one bona-fide Democrat landslide since 1940 and that was the 1964, induced by truly remarkable ingredients
2. when the Democrats win the electoral college, it is with a conservative Southerner at the top of the ticket;
3. Liberals are unelectable as POTUS;
4. (sadly) in the U.S. race has a huge impact and who turns up to vote and for who
Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama. Sure, many will change their mind. But if a few thousand stand their ground in states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa and Colarado, it will be decisive in a way similar to the Nader effect in 2000
In response to SimonH @ 147, I think HRC would have built a traditional Democratic model of victory - do well in the mid-west, sweep the NE and Mid-Atlantic and take (at least) 2 out of 3 states on the West Coast. She would have brought WV, KY, AK, MO and TN more into play than Obama, whilst probably conceding CO (and the Dakotas….).
She also would have more or less guaranteed Democratic wins in OH and PA, whilst making FL a state that leans Democratic rather than its current state (where it leans Republican when Obama v McCain). She would also likely have been stronger in NH. Of course, she’s was likely to do worse in the Mountain West (Colorado, NM, Nevada, etc), but she would probably still have won (at worst) CA, HI and WA - more than enough considering the votes she’s likely to have got in the East.
Obama is likely to lead to a much more unusual electoral map. He puts more Republican states on the map (think Virginia, NC, ND, NE, IN), but he puts quite a few traditional Democratic state in the “at risk” category - for example, he is still underperforming Clinton in important states like PA, OH, FL and MO. So Obama as a Democratic nominee leads to a more interesting campaign (it becomes more of a 50 state campaign), but it has more risks for the Democrats. Personally, I don’t think the Dems can win this election if they give up OH, PA and FL. Obama has to win one of these to have a real chance in November.
148 Chris from Edgecliff. This election will break all those rules.
#148 - CFE -[Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama] - the exit poll in WV - 36% will not vote for Obama and 25% will stay home. - total 61%. Take me home, mountain mama…………..
148 Chris from Edgecliff Just look what happened in the midterm 2006 elections. This will be bigger than that.
The Democrats won seats they weren’t supposed to win.
SimonH @ 147.
Thanks for the link. Very nicely written article.
Just a note on Chris from Edgecliff’s point @ 148.
The last time Republicans nominated a Senator from Arizona to be their Presidential nominee, they lost in the 1964 Democratic landslide.
Not that I’m saying that a similar result is going to happen this time, but it goes to show that historical precendent(s) can be used to prove/disprove any argument…
Chris from Edgecliff,
I don’t think it was the Newt-slide that lost MS-01 in 1994 so much as the retirement of the incumbent who would have enjoyed significant local personal support a after serving for 53 years regardless of political party (particularly as he was elected before the civil rights era and the GOP’s taking of the South from the Dems). When he retired, the Republicans won the District 63-37 in 1994, and since then won every election by 30-50 points.
They even out a Liberal in charge of the senate. The 3 by elections were run using all the scare tactics you mentioned. The Repugs spent their hard earned cash (and short supply) running their scare campaigns to no effect.
Chris from Edgecliff If you would like some running commentary on the election the votemaster predicted George Bush’s 2 victories with great accuracy.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
157 Chris B That should read even put a Liberal in charge.
Swing Lowe @ 155, there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences!
Incidentally, the last time a Democrat from Illinois was on the ballot in a presidential election it was an unmitigated disaster (on both occasions)
WV. Count 95%. Hillary winning 67% of the vote.
West Virginia , state whose history and statistics show the Team Obama “spin machine has been both misleading & deceptive , and liberal left media slant a lie.
Historically , pro Lincoln’s anti slavery , and seceded from the Confederate pro slavery Virginia based on cultural , philosophical , ethnic , religious, industry & geographic grounds despite the drivel from one selective historian here.WV’s history is with the North not the South , Historically the State is not a ‘red’ State spin lie number 1/ exposed
Employment , traditionally blue collar. That’s traditional ALP Labor. Which Obambot (not ObamaBacker) has the convictions courage to call traditional Labor supporters racists & bigots. It’s a dare Obamabots. This ALP type State of course will vote for an ALP type candidate like Hillary & has by 67% .Spin lie number 2/ exposed
Educationally , its people have a decent and strong rate of high school graduates relative to the US. They are therefore intelligent people as a fact , not dumb as implied by Obamabots. The fact many don’t relatively take Degrees is related to a poorer background needing immediate income & the job availability tertiary requirement , and not their clearly demonstated decent intelligence. Spin lie 3/ exposed
Racism , if blogers understood the history outlined & their pro North views
the racism if any is in the US is in States to its South. It’s the colour of Obama’s policys (elitist liberal fluff) that offend WV (& traditional ALP type voters) , not the colour of his skin. Conversely , ex confederate North Carolina who the Obambots lauded about Obama’s victory a week ago had a 90%+ black vote for Obama against a white fellow Democrat. So was there racism demonstated in North Carolina by blacks against the white Hillary ? The Obamabots were content with such potential reverse racism without comment. WV historically North & culturally tolerant, ALP type traditional don’t like Obama’’s politics color , which runs beneath the skin. Spin lie no 4/ exposed.
Culturally Repug type backward. This is Democrat territory mostly , 8 out of last 12 elections voted Democrat which further exposes this Repug cultural label. Spin lie no 5/ exposed
Race demographics, there are statistically miniscule Asian & Hispanic & black voters in WV.Hillary was heavily disadvantaged in vote winning by the absence of the first two race groups , so the low black vote is a red herring. Spin lie no
6/ exposed
POTUS , the WV demographics & polling vs McCain make WV a ‘red’ State win
for Hillary for the above reasons (the same polls show Obama gets thrashed). A
different mix of demographics show Hillary will also win OH , PA & FL over McCain & decisively win POTUS for the Democrats (a reasonably sure thing). Whereas Obama’s case rests on winning an odd grouping of ‘red’ States , mostly historically strongly ‘red’ and mostly McCain on polls now leads Obama (& before McCain publicly exposes his liberal’ credentials to them) Obama is the ‘claytons electability hope’) Obama the “best” candidate ? , after WV now , plus OH ,, PA , FL etc , Lie no 7/ exposed.
The Obamabots (not the ObamaBackers) intellectual reaction ? probably a Sir Joh’ answer : “it’ll be alright”….the dreamy undefined ‘change to’ message answer. For mine I’m still strongly with Hillary for Nominee, I’ve got stats & demographic reasons plus the above reasons (plus policys like Hillary’s universal Healthcare plan vs Obama’s “Howardism free choice” right wing subsidy based with Insurance premiums market set policy). Traditional Labor type voters in the US agree with me.
Ron, so the SDs should flock to Hillary now. You cant be that stupid- she cant win, she needs almost 70% of remaining delegates, and all the SD traffic is going the other way. 90% of Hillary voters in WV believe she’s going to win. Are you from WV by any chance.
I have concluded that you post simply to annoy people. You cant be that stupid
I ask this question: which states does Obama have a chance of winning such that he will - as some people have claimed - rewrite political reality in the US?
All the polling that I have seen thus far suggests that the election for Obama depends on Florida and/or Ohio. Nothing new there.
So: list the states, someone.
And I will point out for the record that I very much hope that he does win states that rewrite political reality in the US. Although I am a Clinton supporter, I am primarily a Democrat supporter.
Completely agree with Swing Lowe’s conclusion at #149. If McCain can take Pennsylvania off the Dems and hold Ohio (I’m regarding him holding Florida as a given), then he’s home almost regardless of the rest of the country.
But would you bet that way? Really, if Obama isn’t confident he can hold PA, he might as well pack up and go home. Last poll had him 7 points up, RCP rolling poll average 5 points up. Of course polls this far out have to be used with enormous caution, but as a ‘held’ Democrat state it looks like theirs to lose.
Presuming that Obama is less popular in PA than Kerry (and I wouldn’t conclude that without evidence), does the difference outweigh the degree to which the Repub brand is more on the nose than it was in 2004?
and David Gould ,
which points in my 3161 did you agree with and which points did you disagree with ?
#163 DG - you’ll be disappointed. the Obamabots here have the habit of running away from answering real and hard question, bit like their candidate really.
164 SimonH You only have to look at what happened in 2006. Since then the Republicans are even more on the nose.
The crazy thing Andrew, is that since she needs at least 71% of the remaining delegates, today’s win may not even achieve that target. That’s the sort of ludicrous mathematical scenario she requires to achieve a victory.
I have every belief that Ron will still be here touting Hillary’s chances and demanding her nomination well after the convention.
Ohio swung sharp to the left because of corruption. This should be a safe state for the Dems.
Chris from Edgecliff @ 160,
Touche.
David Gould @ 163,
Whilst I am also a Clinton supporter, the states that people assert that Obama can win that would constitute “rewriting political reality in the US” include:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
However, I still doubt whether Obama will win states like North Dakota or the Carolinas. I see Virginia, Indiana and Colorado as real shots for the Democrats this time (although Clinton would also have been competitive in Virginia and Indiana), but McCain should still win the other 3 fairly comfortably.
However, it is arguable whether this election will present such a change in political reality. After all, Bill Clinton won the following red/purple states in either 1992 or 1996:
Arkansas (obviously)
Tennessee (twice)
Kentucky (twice)
Louisiana (twice)
Georgia
Colorado
Montana
Nevada (twice)
Missouri (twice)
He also won all of the other key swing states (OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, WA) twice as well as Florida once.
So a Democrat doing well in these states (particularly the Southern ones) should not be that surprising to us…
Ron, how did you like the increase in the threshold for the medicare surcharge in last night’s budget? That was surely a great improvement to the Labor/Clinton health policy of univesal coverage.
David Gould, broken record time. State breakdowns v McCain are entertainment value only until it’s a two horse race. Polling has been so out of shape in the primaries it is irrelevant. Follow the Gallup daily tracking poll, it’s the only one whidh is proving to be of some use regarding the ebb and flow of voter sentiment.
Ron,
I agree that Clinton is more electable than Obama. I disagree with any assessment that puts WV as a key state, but I am unsure that that is what you were doing. I do not think that it is demographically key, either, as not many states have similar demographics.
However, I certainly agree - as would anyone who looked at the polling - that Obama is in trouble with blue collar workers. As the Howard years showed in Australia, they are the key demographic. They will generally vote on economics, but can certainly be swayed to some (small) extent by conservative values issues.
The question is: will blue collar workers vote for McCain, stay away or vote for Obama? My fear is that they will not tend to the ‘vote for Obama’ option.
The next question is: will his losses there be offset anywhere else that is useful to him? It is no good him picking up the intelligentsia in New York and California.
The black vote might help him. But the anti-black vote is also a problem in the states where black voters have significant numbers.
So: I guess I agree with you, Ron, but not on everything. Clear? Mud.
I would also point out that I have had interesting and informative conversations with people who might be called ‘Obamabots’. I may be a Clintoid, but I am sure we can all get along … get along … get along … give me superdelegates … Florida … Michigan … Florida … Michigan …
re:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
On what basis are these claims made? Is there polling I can look at?
And for those who claim the polling is hopeless: if the polling is hopeless, then where are you getting your information from that Obama is competitive in those states?
By running away from competing in WV, he has only reinforced the perception of being arrogant and looking down at demographic like WV and his Bittergate. Doo run run, doo run run, in West Virginia……… yes, we notice the flag pin. Worry? who’s worry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/opinion/14dowd-1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Ron,
That is a very naive description of the split that produced the West Virginian secession from Virginia in 1861. The reality is that a complex series of events produced the current divide, and slavery was only one of those issues.
173 David Gould You have only to look at what has happened in the 3 recent by elections. 2 R+7 and 1 R+10 to see what is happening regarding the accuracy of the polls.
One had a 25% swing. If only Gippsland would get that sort of swing.
DG @ 173,
Have a look at:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
They have polls matching Obama and Clinton v McCain in all states. In the states I listed above, Obama is less than 5% behind McCain (with the exception of ND, where he is 6% behind).
The by-election results are certainly very exciting.
However, there should be some caution attached here: all three by-elections had extremely conservative Democrats standing in them. As such, they attracted enough of the conservative vote to give them the win. Obama does not have conservative credentials. As such, predicting his likely performance in those areas based on their performance is suspect at best.
David @ 163: See my post and linked article. All listed there. Few of them ‘rewrite political reality’ in the sense that they require 20%+ swings or have never been won by the Dems before.
Obama’s election chances don’t rest on winning Florida (and barring a miracle, he won’t). McCain’s election chances rest on:
a) holding on to all of 2004 including holding Ohio; or
b) cancelling out losses with a big win, preferably Pennsylvania or Michigan (or, more remotely but conclusively, California).
Obama’s election strategy is far less ‘Ohio or bust!’ than HRC’s would have been. Albeit HRC would have had the backup plan of winning Florida.
PS Howler in my #147 post by including Tennessee as a state McCain would be grimly defending from O. Whoops. To even it up, I should have included Nevada as a state where McCain will at least face a significant challenge, where he probably wouldn’t have vs HRC.
West Virginia is South of the Mason-Dixon line, and was in the Confederacy. Although the North of West Virginia is being swamped by the Yankies moving south.
Therefore there is a gradual shift to the left.
I do not really see a three per cent gap as that good a result for Obama. Colorado is nice, but that is given to him, and he is still behind on delegates. He needs to win states that are in the red column; Clinton needs to hold states that are in the blue column.
I have looked at http://www.electoral-vote.com a lot. It is my favourite site for polling data.
For general information for those that do not know the Mason-Dixon line is an imaginary line that runs between Ohio and Maryland in the north and Virginia and West Virginia in the south. The Yankees were/are in the North and the Confederates were/are in the south.
Chris B, West Virginia was not a member of the Confederate States of America. They almost immediately seceded and joined the Union within six months of Virginia leaving the Union.
180 SimonH They actually lost that 2004 lead in the mid term 2006 elections.
Re the argument that the three local House candidates who won the recent elections are conservative Dems - this is true. However, the whole Republican operation tried to vigorously paint them as liberals and attach them to both Obama and Pelosi. Aggressive adverising campaigns featuring Wright, bitter annd guns were trotted out in each instance. And in each instance the Democratic candidate won the safest of Republican seats which they had not held for decades. It’s on folks.
Based on looking back at the polling history for South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, South Carolina looks to be the only realistic hope for Obama.
Indiana is also weird. Looking at the polling history, there is one outlier poll that tips it to Obama in a landslide. The rest have McCain storming in. I can see why they have it as a dead heat based on those results, but the polling is not conclusive that it is a possibility for Obama. It is much more likely that the poll giving it to him was a weirdie.
And North Dakota? I do not think so. Six per cent is a huge margin.
So, on my analysis South Carolina is the only shot for Obama, if we put Colorado in the bag, so to speak.
He still needs Florida or Ohio to win.
I hope it’s on. I just don’t think that it is (not in terms of the presidential election, anyhow).
Thing is, if the Dems win against this sort of publicity in the south, everything is on the table. The Republicans will be stretched thin, and McCain will have to be running as Jekyll and Hyde to try to trick both the right and centre all over the country. It’s all a bridge too far. Get a couple of bob on NC now.
SL and DG
The 3 cornered polls at the moment are between
McCain v Obama
and
McCain v Clinton.
They are loaded polls. Even given this fact, both are beating McCain.
The November election is between
Democrat v Republican.
80% unhappy with direction of country
70% unhappy with the War
Bush fave rating 28%
Economy tanking
War
Katrina
8 years of this vile Republican mob.
Core support split is now 51% Dem to 38% Repub. Compared to 43% each in 2004.
Democrats are money flushed
Repubs are money poor
Record Democrat turnouts.
Record new Dem registrations
Record Independant support
Do you really think McCain is this good? Do you really think this 72yo, who looks,talks and acts every one of those 72 years, can turn all that around?
The same McCain who a large part of even that shrinking base despises?
Debate is fun, but reality is reality.
A wave is coming, and it will take the Repubs out with them.
185 Al Thank you. You are correct, but a large number of West Virginian’s enrolled in the Confederate Army as Virginians. As well as some fought for the North
191 HarryH Thank you for backing up what I have been saying.
Both are beating McCain nationally, that is true. However, the national race is not the thing that decides the presidential election. It is the races in each state. We already have columns of states that are definitely going to be Democrat and definitely going to be Republican, even with all those other things going on. The question is not ‘How good is McCain?’. The question is: why, if things are so bad, is McCain so competitive - competitive to the point that he is beating Obama in the delegate count and only one state behind Clinton in that regard?
My suspicion is because Democrat supporters are building a narrative in their heads that is not in the heads of the average punter out there. I remember similar claims before the 2004 election. How could anyone vote for Bush again? Well, they did, didn’t they? I also remember the 2007 Australian election. All the talk was of seats falling because of a backlash of disattisfaction with the Liberal social agenda. That did not happen. 2PP, 48 per cent of people still voted against Labor. Things are never as we on the Left wish them to be.
Further, on what basis do you make that claim that the national polling is accurate (it, too, is based on the same three-cornered questions) and that the state polling is not?
I suppose we wouldn’t want facts to get in the way of a good debate would we?
194 David Gould Again, look at the evidence. Mid term polls 2006. 3 by elections where the Republicans were routed.
These are not claims. And what happened in 2004 had no parrallel to this.
The Republicans one the mid term 2002 elections and took control of the senate.
Wheras the oposite happened in 2006 mid terms.
David, differences in 08 compared to 04 include:
lie of the land - as the 3 House seats indicate, polls and issues mentioned above, the huge number of registered Dems, the machine that Obama has built (which as of yesterday, began a 50 - not 57 - state voter enrolment drive),
the fact that the old man is not the incumbent, Obama’s rhetoric - this one is huge, it is what propelled Reagan to landslides, new media, the internet and Obama’s savvy on this front…
I could probably keep rattling, but I’m seeing 04 and 08 as worlds apart.
A good policeman would not ignore the evidence, although some people say they theory of evolution is only a theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994
A massive swing to the Republicans.
Two years later:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
An electoral college landslide to Bill Clinton.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections%2C_1996
Republicans gained a net of two seats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1996
Democrats gained a net of eight seats, but lost the popular vote by quite a margin.
My point is that mid-term elections do not tell us much about presidential elections, and that congressional elections do not tell us much about congressional elections. The races are different, and the public views them as such.
Whoops the Theory of Evolution.
David
In 2004 the people still thought they could win the War
In 2004 the economy was flying
In 2004 there was no Katrina
In 2004 Repugs were only half as on the nose as they are now
In 2004 Repugs had an energised base led by Bush loving evangelicals
etc
etc
This is 2008
For those who are optimistic, I am glad for you. And I hope very much that you are correct.
I do not share that optimism, but I am still hopeful of a Democratic victory come the fall.
ChrisB,
That’s exactly why I called Ron’s attempt to paint West Virginia as a typical Union state naive. I’ve spent a fair bit of time researching the US Civil War, all stemming from a trip to Gettysburg. After being there, you really can’t help but become somewhat interested.
2008 is different to 2004, yes. But the similarity is that people on the Left were predicting a crushing defeat for Bush. After all, look at all the bad stuff he’d done.
This sounds very similar to what is happening here.
206 Al Thanks Al. It took me quite a lot of research to understand the polical connections with the civil war.
David Gould, are you going to be our LTEP for 2008?
As well as the research on McCarthysm and why the Democrats were involved in McCarthysm, and now they have regrets about that part of their history.
209 TurningWorm We have lost Glen so we need someone else.
My 207 post is a little bad, I think. What I am trying to say is that there is certainly reason to believe that people would not vote for the Republicans this time around - all the things cited. However, the polling is not showing that voters share this perception. It is all very well to say, ‘Well, the polling must be wrong.’ But that simply puts the question up in the air as to what is happening.
You can either go with the logical position - that no-one in their right mind would vote for the Republicans in this environment - or you can go with the polls. Given how often predictions based on the logical position have been wrong, I am leaning towards simply accepting the polls at face value. I understand why others might not do that. But I think that their claims lack evidentiary support if they do so.
212 David Gould. 25% swing to Democrats in one by election certainly shows some inconsistency, and how about the other 2 by elections?
I am certainly happy to beg the Republicans to lose the election.
What more evidence do you need?
I have addressed the by-election issue, I think. It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
Chris,
Opinion poll data for the presidential clash between Obama and McCain.
Well, keep feeding us your information and we’ll try to provide a counter argument.
Yes, but the by elections were not opinion polls. They are fact.
They are indeed fact. However, they are not particularly pertinent - imo - to a presidential clash. Extremely conservative Democrats were being examined by the electorate in those instances. Obama is not an extremely conservative Democrat. When the people in these conservative areas look at the ballot, they will see the name ‘Obama’ written there.
And I will point out that opinion polls had been predicting these Democratic by-election victories - opinion polls which are most certainly not predicting an Obama victory in these areas come November. The opinion polls got it right for the by-elections. That is evidence that they might very well have it right for November.
David
Has it occured to you that after 8 years of G.W.Bush and his Republican Party that the populace might be tending slightly away from Republican Conservatism?
Their base has shrunk in 4 years from a split of 43% each to 51% Dem to 38% Repub.
As the mood and electorate swung to them in 1994 it has now swung firmly away from them.
Travis Childers is what you’d call a conservative Democrat: anti abortion, pro life, evangelical christian, gun owner, in other words the only sort of person the Democrats could get elected in a conservative area of Mississippi!
I’ll agree with David Gould that we shouldn’t get too carried away with predictions of Republican annihilation in November, but assuming it’s a much higher voter turnout than in 2004, you’d give Obama/Democrats the edge.
The mood certainly swung to them in 1994. They still lost the 1996 presidential election.
It has certainly occurred to me that that might be happening. However, the state-by-state polling does not reflect that. Why?
The Republican Party certainly campaigned against him using the terms Liberal. In fact they even threw the kitchen sink at him.
David
Keating hung on for one more election here after the mood changed too.
Why does the state by state polling not reflect the swing? Because their is no Democrat candidate yet. There is no united Democrat Party yet. The polling is McCain v a split ticket.
Wait and see the polls in July/August David.
And as I said:
It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
These districts are not going to perceive Obama as one of them in any shape or form. These districts will vote Republican in the November presidential race.
The Democrats have NEVER had so much money. The Republicans have NEVER been so broke. Further to that, companies connected to Republican Party are switching sides according to the Votemaster.
I am happy to wait to see those polls. However, I would suggest that all those suggesting an inevitable win for the Democrats wait for those polls, too.
Money is good.
226 HarryH So did John Howard.
All these examples of sides hanging on after the mood has changed does not fill me with confidence, by the way.
To put the amount of money the Democrats have earnt and spent in perspective it is at least 100 times more then George Bush, since last year. Including Move on org.
http://www.moveon.org
David Gould , Swing Lowe & Chris from edgecliff
First , David Gould #172. Thanks for the courtesy of replying its psephological depth , few Hillary ones have. ‘Not on everything clear as mud’, many of my posts have imbeded (as are my Amigo friend FINN’S) return fire by 2 of us daily vs 30 odd Obama supporters a lot of whom use belittling & sniper insulting blogs. We two started civilly.
Davidd , Swing and Chris
The reality of hillary electability vs Obama’s , two of you captured which I’ve tried in vain to suggest:
“there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences” and National comparative Polling is irrelevant.
Both the “historical precedents” inclusive of demographics & other psephological factors and Polls that should be read by State (with the aforementioned factors) are a sound basis for assessment. WV is winnable for hillary , she leads in against McCain & it votes Dems 8 of last12. Overwhelming OH ,PA FL where Hillary does lead McCaina they say Hillary is by far more electable and show serious electoral problems for Obama. They also suggest most of the Obama ‘hope to’ States poor odds for the same above psephological reasons & with McCain on Polls ahead in most.
The ‘bitter’ Ohio is unlikely (McCain is ideal Repug to win this state) and the J..ew/Hispanic FL impossible. NC & SC and other Southern red States , the Dems the worst 3 combinations ‘liberal’ , black & non sothen (inlike Bill & Carter)
The Repugs with a ‘moderate’ in some areas McCain have got a good electable candidate
SuperDelegate Count. All of Obama’s supers under Dems rules , can switch to Hillary anytime they like , and should
David, your general caution/pessimism is warranted given the dismal showing of non-Bill Clinton Dem candidates in Presidential elections for the last 40 years.
However, your assertion at #188 (Obama must win Florida or Ohio to win) is just flat-out wrong, as the New Republic article referenced at #147 indicates.
One of many non-far-fetched scenarios is that he picks up Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That’ll do him if all other states remain as per 2004. On the electoral-vote.com site, 8 points up Iowa, 3 points up Colorado, and 1 point down in NM, so far as anyone places store in non-averaged current polls. Vice President Bill Richardson has a fine ring to it, I tells ya…
And that’s disregarding any controversial potential pickup in the near southeast (NC, SC, VA). The whole point of the (anticipated) Obama strategy is to keep McCain fighting on as many disparate fronts as possible, so he can’t easily defend the 2004 line in the sand, and he can’t dump many tens of millions into Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe PA without leaving himself dangerously underdressed elsewhere. A guy who is currently only drawing in the polls vs Obama in Indiana, which should be one of the first states with sizeable population (after TX and his home state) that he can bank on, has serious troubles if not very very well resourced.
David
The mood change in the U.S. happened back in 2005.
The realisation that Bush’s War was a complete lie and that America was losing it.
The Katrina debacle.
Corruption
Incompetence
Terry Schiavo
and the list goes on.
The mood change is well and truly cemented now. There will be no “beating the trend” for the Repubs in Nov.
They are on the nose royally…as Newt Gingrich said last week…no matter what we say or do ,they are just gonna say to us “Not You”.
Finns at 174, youre lucky Ron’s here to make you look more reasonable. Obama didnt campaign in WV because there didnt appear to be any point, so to take those exit polls as any indication when he didnt campaign there it as usual. clutching at straws
The bottom line is this- HILLARY CANT WIN. All your arguments about electability, demographics etc have been presented to voters SINCE DAY ONE. And they have chosen Obama.
The only argument worth hearing at this point from Hillary supporters is: how is Hillary going to win the 70% of delegates she needs?? You can bang on about other issues as much as you like, wont change the math
David in the 2006 mid terms, the Democrats won seats the Democrat National committee did not think they would win, and did not put any money into. Moveon.org on the other hand did think that they had a chance and put money into those seats. Now the Democrats have control of the Senate thanks to Moveon.org
http://www.moveon.org
Their site has a lot of good information on it.
236 HarryH You left out (in fact so did I), the discraceful treatment of wounded soldiers returning from Iraq. That is putting the soldiers in rat/cockroach infected rooms.
Also if you comine the dead and wounded numbers from Vietnam and Iraq. The combined total puts Iraq in front. Even though Vietnam lasted much longer.
Spell check. combine.
Not to mention the huge numbers of murders/suicides amoungst the returning soldiers.
re Indiana, Obama is only tied there because of one bizarre poll. The rest all of McCain miles in front there. We will need to wait for more polling to see the true situation.
Re Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, if it is accepted that Obama is close in those states, it also has to be accepted that McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004 in other states. Thus, on the polling, Obama has to pick up Ohio or Florida - I repeat: on the polling. That is the information we have; that is the information I am going on.
I believe that Obama’s strategy is in general a good one. However, I hope that he does not waste money in states that cannot realistically be won and leave Ohio and Florida to McCain.
Most of the soldiers - and their families - will vote for McCain. So I would not count that issue as being too useful for the Democrats.
As to Moveon.org, they are a great organisation. I will certainly have to keep an eye on what they are saying about the presidential race.
David Gould - those same soldiers on the extended tours that they didn’t sign up for? I’m sure the margin the Reps win soldiers by will be drastically cut from what it has been in the past.
‘Drastically cut’? I do not think so - not with McCain as the Republican candidate.
One thing today’s result confirms is that the Obama campaign has stalled. Since Texas it has been one mediocre performance after another. The 90/10 advantage Obama has with the black vote during this campaign is his core demographic.
I actually agree with Martin Luther King when he said in his famous I have Dream speech that, “I look forward to the day when a man is judged by the content of his character rather than the colour of his skin”. Obviously, the black Democratic vote don’t agree. They have just voted for the black man.
For a guy with so much popular support, he does not seem to be cutting through to middle America.
Maybe the SDs will make a very tough decision.
100 years McCain? I’m willing to bet on it.
162
Andrew
Please, don’t put money on it! LOL
As the opinion polls up to September last year showed the black vote 70/30 in favour of Hillary, I’d say it’s not a blind racism driving this block. Might have more to do with the character Obama has shown on one hand, and the disdain shown to them by the Clintons, particularly Bill, on the other.
If there is a race candidate at the moment, I’d suggest it is the one harping on about ‘workin, hard-working Americans, white Americans’, and the white vote at every stop.
243 David Gould The anti war vote is huge, haven’t you seen the polls. It’s running at over 70%. Further to that if you look at all the polls on the major issues, the Democrats have the major issues sewn up. Each major issue that I have seen the Democrats are on about 70% I would expect the general polls to line up with the major issue polls.
To be clear, are you saying that you expect the Democrats to get 70 per cent of the vote?
Can you give me a link to these major issues polls giving the Democrats that kind of lead?
The anti-war vote may be huge. That does not mean that the people who oppose the war are going to all vote for the Democrats. The anti-war vote in Australia was huge. 48 per cent of people still voted for the Liberal Party. Why? It was not an election issue. The Iraq war will not be a major election issue, no matter how the left like to dream it will be. People simply do not base their vote on that sort of thing.
“New Style Politics” Question Number 2 to the Obamaphiles:
Is President Obama going to say “SORRY” to the native Amercian Indians for the past genocides; to the enslavement of the Blacks; for the “White American” policy legislations (still on the book) on the Chinese during 1850-1910 and for the internment of the japanese during the second War World?
Pres Obama: “We reflect on their past mistreatment. We reflect in particular on the mistreatment of those who were the lost generations - this blemished chapter in our nation’s history. The time has now come for the nation to turn a new page in America’s history by righting the wrongs of the past and so moving forward with confidence to the future. We apologise for the laws and policies of successive congresses and governments that have inflicted profound grief, suffering and loss on these our fellow Americans….. And for the indignity and degradation thus inflicted on a proud people and a proud culture, we say sorry…… There comes a time in the history of nations when their peoples must become fully reconciled to their past if they are to go forward with confidence to embrace their future”
- What about it Mr. Obama, a profile of courage or just another politician.
Q1 was: Is Pres. Obama going to ratify kyoto? The answer was NO.
So Old Style Politics 1 - New style Politics 0
Finns, what are you on man? The extensive answer given to your question 1 was yes.
I’ll take a bit of the nuance out of my response, and only post the relevant words now. Ready? Keep your eyes open:
Now, for those having trouble with comprehension, what did the UNFCCC produce? Correct! And how will one ‘work within it’? Correct again!!!
From http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Pancho,
I hope you arent heartbroken in November.
EStJ
#254 - Amigo, show me one statement from Obama that he said “I will ratify Kyoto” as Kevin Rudd did.
Finns, I know you aren’t that dumb.
David
Seeing that you are a great believer in current polls:
The Top 3 Issues deciding your vote is
Economy 40%
Iraq War 21%
Healthcare 8%
The first 2 (Economy and Iraq) tie in together. The American public now not only see that the War was a sham and is a disaster, they also see it as a major drag on a faltering economy.
Ed, nice to know you’re lookin out for me pal.
#259 Amigo, i know you are not that stupid to be fooled by “an Obama administration will work constructively within it”. Say it man, simple: “I will ratify Kyoto”.
Always Pancho, always
Without looking at the demographics, I would pretty much guess that close to all of the 21 per cent who said that the Iraq war was the top issue deciding their vote have never voted Republican in their lives. Healthcare likewise.
Do you have the demographic breakdown of Republican/Democrat voters for those?
In any case, that leaves the economy. Who is best placed there? Sure, the economy is in bad shape. But Bush is to blame for that. So, McCain gets to fight Obama on (almost) even terms - I give Obama a running 4 per cent start here.
Neither has any economic credentials, but guess what? The working class do not like Obama. And they are the ones to whom the economy matters most. It is a matter here of where Obama spends his money and how he pitches his message.
ESJ,
Good to see you have not been put off by the blustering blowback of the bragging Barak bludgers.
How do you see the campaign unfolding from here?
DG - re the economy - valid points BUT Hillary’s gas tax populism had a negative effect on her in IN and NC.
Good to see the Bludgertorium warming up with the click click clicking of the keys (rather than the flap flap flapping of the butterflies’ wings….nah, don’t ask!), and lots of sentences and even full stops!
It looks like the ‘electability’ red herring is being waved around again, but let’s get it nailed down: this is Hillary Clinton’s last fall back position. She’s gone from the inevitable annointed nominee to arguing that ‘he’ can’t be elected in November. But that’s not the point: he can be elected NOW!
She has failed to be.
Moving the goal posts as the winner gets closer to the finish line (to mix metaphors, or sports, or something) is nothing but a sign of complete desperation and is nothing short of an insult to the voters who actually, funnily enough, don’t want her to be the nominee.
Arguing it is simply playing her game; and it IS a game.
The real issue, is how to bring the diverse groups of Democrats together (NOT just the ones who voted in the primaries), the independents who are sick of ugly Bush Republicanism and his infantile war, the true Conservative Republicans (big C) who want their party taken out of the hands of these mad Neocons, and those who’ve never voted before in their lives.
Hillary cannot do it becasue she cannot win the nomination.
Obama can becasue he’s about to win it. He’ll then go on to do the above.
Watch.
David Gould at 264
I could understand a claim such as the ‘The working class prefer Clinton over Obama’ but to say that the ‘The working class do not like Obama’ is a bit of a stretch. Can you point to anything outside of a candidate selection race preference poll that supporting your assertion?
that is *
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx
This is very interesting. It confounds some of my underlying thinking, such as that Obama will do worse with blue collar workers, while supporting my general conclusion: that this will be a close election.
Yeah - noticed that too.
Now I wonder if we can fix the space before the comma fetish.
It was a stretch. Consider it amended as you suggested.
PB Profiles:
Catrina the Counting Courtesan knows how to track everything. Hobbies include watching the numbers rollover at the petrol bowser. Is almost orgasmic when they change prices electronically at her local servo.
Greeensborough Growler at 273
Umm, sorry GG, I don’t even have a license to drive let alone a car.
They spent, they came, they went:
Having lost a similar Congressional race this month in Louisiana, Republicans had worked desperately to win this contest, sending Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for Mr. Davis, along with Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; President Bush and Senator John McCain recorded telephone messages that were sent to voters throughout the district.
Merle Black, a Southern politics expert at Emory University, called a Democratic victory potentially “a huge upset, and an indication of a terrible year ahead for the Republicans.” He added, “In theory, this should be an easy win for them.”
Mimicking a strategy that proved successful in 2006, Democrats ran staunch conservatives in both this and the Louisiana race, forcing their Republican opponents to attack national party figures as surrogates.
Mr. Davis had been hoping for a large turnout in his home of DeSoto County, where roughly 15 percent of the district’s voters live, and which is solidly Republican and mostly white. But a last-minute appearance for him by Mr. Cheney on Monday apparently failed to rally his base sufficiently; indeed a modest room at a local convention center was hardly packed.
NYT
…you can hear the Republicans groaning from here! LOL
#273 GG, is Catrina with a C still your Chick Magnate? or has her polarity been pulled back to the self appointed leader of the Pack?
Catrian,
Don’t need a licence to watch.
Finns,
Catrina used KR as a sugar daddy for entry and is now playing the room. She’s here, she’s weird and that is a good thing.
Thank you GG,
Clinton will go to the beginning of June, she will make and lose the argument over Florida and Michigan and concede defeat. This by definition will weaken Obama because front and centre will be the working class whites issue, she will want to do it to position herself as the candidate they should have chosen if BHO goes down.
McCain will campaign as a centrist - I am the change type candidate. who else do the conservatives have to vote for? ie he has to distance himself from Bush to the utmost.
Obama will write off the working class whites a la West Virginia, the issue will be whether the fabled new Obama voters actually exist and can be mobilised. Thus if the mid-west is given up by Obama (ie he doesnt try for the white conservative vote) he has to win in unusual places like the Carolinas and Virginia - not impossible but he has to get record black turnout and hold enough white vote to win.
For example Missisipi is something like 38% black and the blacks who do vote do in fact vote 90% democrat its just that the black turnout is less than the white turnout, if Obama got 30% of the black vote in old miss he only needs 33% of the whitey vote.
Alternatively he “triangulates” attacks blacks in a Sister Souljah moment to try and prove he is something new. Questionable if he will do that because he will be attacked as an Uncle Tom if he tries that tack AND reverend wright makes it hard to run on that.
If he goes for the new voter strategy I think he loses and McCain is president. The later maybe but I dont think the Democrats would really wear it.
Gr-e-e-e-nsborough Growler at 277
I never tried it, but I will, as the numbers turn over I’ll think about those super delegates slipping out of Hillary’s fingers, I think about you, and I’ll smile.
273 GG - That is a classic post.
GG I always wondered who would subscribe to the Weather Channel but Catrina provides the answer.
GG n Eddy sittin’ in a tree…………….
Harryd’H (cpe)
Shittin on thee……
ESJ,
You are not allowed to speak about anything on Foxtel. It apparently makes you a neocon. Apparently, the weather is a right wing conspiracy.
lol GG
you know your good self and Eddy are far to good to waste your excretement on a lowly Obamabot
Clinton last remaining argument for the SD’s is that she is more likely to be elected POTUS than Obama.
Well fair enough, I can’t fault her for making the argument, nor for her fans to recite it chapter and verse. But I don’t buy it.
Firstly, obviously, she has lost the primary race, surrendering a huge head start, and running an inept campaign. It’s a point that tends to weigh against being a superior candidate.
Clinton is an easy target for a Republican negative campaign. But they have held fire and focused on Obama, perhaps just to destabilise the primary process but also because he is seen as the bigger threat. Similarly, Obama has held off going negative on Clinton so that his negative attacks on McCain have more bite when the time comes.
Clinton has had the advantage of having very to fend off only light attacks. This means her results so far are an overstatement of what she can deliver. The flip side is that Obama’s results are an understatement of what he can deliver come November.
Also, in order to keep her campaign alive (such as it is) she has slipped into bigotry and economic illiteracy. While it’s helped her in recent primaries she has bleed support more broadly – to stay in the race she has poisoned her own well.
Greeensborough Growler and Edward StJohn
Guys - your so yesterday! Haven’t you heard about RSS?
Last time it was Jen, wasn’t it Eddy?
That’s right, you kept stalking her over what she looked like until she got so sick of your creepiness she told you where to get off.
Ah, ‘get off’, seems you like to by getting your little doggies all leg humpy together.
That ‘classic’ post of GG’s at 273 is your modus operandi: a snide personal and sexist attack. Yep, ‘classic’ Eddy if ever I saw it. No wonder you like it.
Evening all.
ESJ - The Repugs don’t have the luxury of taking their base for granted. Signs are already showing that the base is starting to fall out for them, so McCain’s biggest job of all will be shoring up the rednecks, fundamentalists, etc., or else they run the risk of decreased voter turnout.
This allows Obama to be the centrist player, not McCain, because Obama has more wriggle due to the fact that a LOT of people are angry with the current Bush administration and the general direction of US politics under the Repugs. Many of these will get out and vote Democrat no matter what.
This is why we have already seen poor turnouts for Republican primary contests, and why they are now being routed in places like Mississippi.
By the way, why are you and GG taking potshots at Catrina. I often log on here just to get her SD updates. It helps make this blog a source of information, far more valuable than reading reams and reams of “Hillary can still win” nonsense.
David Goud
The poll is a National poll , 850 people spread accross the US. As such the value is questionabe. But this one is compounded by trying to brak by numerous sub groups , so suggest you ignore it
A National poll 2 weeks ago showed 31% of Hillary supporters will vote McCain
2 corrections
David Gould
plus ‘per calendar day’
KR,
For someone who throws it around with gay abandon, you are far, far too precious when it comes back at you.
#288 _ cathrina with a C - RSS? Removalist’s Super S*it
Kirri, Kirri,
As they say in NSW politics time for a bex , cup of tea and a good sit down.
293
Greeensborough Growler
You’ve always played second fiddle to Eddy, haven’t you? What’s the matter diddums, just can’t do it without the ‘big’ boy to hide behind?
Unctious Snidely and his little mate, what a pair!
Catrina,
Where’s the SD count at now? Net margin will do
KR,
Pathetic response!
Your credibility stands on whether you can raise a credible smite.
Good luck.
Ah, the good ole days:
J.F.K. bought affection in West Virginia. “The boss of Logan County said 35,” Peters recalled. “He meant $3,500, but Kennedy thought it was $35,000, so he gave him $35,000. They put out all this money and they carried the precincts.” (Hillary has been using street money more than Obama, though it is unclear how much it has helped.)
MoDo, NYT
298
Greeensborough Growler
What’s up GG, isn’t the truth enough for you?
Dyno , FINNS & GG
Dyno , the site below gives reasonable updates. As you are aware the Superdelegates ALL could drop Obama any day they choose right up to & including a convention. They are L plate endorsements (voidable)
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
FINNS , with multidtude of blogs yesterday at one time ,did you get my 1 line ditty ?
GG , when talking to k/r you said “gay abandon” , interesting choice of words
KR,
What truth?
Everyone who regularly reads this blog knows you flounder when questioned.
You are just hurting your “brand” with the unsustainable bulldust about ESJ.
Yeah, right GG, and do you think anyone with a memory of Eddy’s greasy little habits is likely not to also remember you running around behind him chucking snot like a 3 year old?
Well I sure do buster, and there’s no surprise in seeing you doing exactly the same thing again.
My last post on the subject.
Dyno at 297
Obama: 290 (284+6)
Clinton:269.5 (270.5-1)
I.e. Obama is leading Clinton by 20.5 (or 13.5 if you exclude the Pelosi club).
Doesn’t it make you feel all warm inside!!
KR,
This is clearly something that troubles you.
Obviously,, PB is your therapy of choice. (That is a good thing).
You have issues with ESJ and myself.
Fill your boots with acrimony.
PS. If you want to look very carefully, I actually posted saying the naming of Jen was uncool at the time.
Yeah, we all have a moral compass. Yeah, we all move on.
Ron [#1476 - No , yous are the butterfly pixy variety]?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=853&cp=15#comment-151814
#305 GG - [You have issues with ESJ and myself] - dont left me out, i have issue with him!!
There is a tendency in politics called the trot tendency. Those of the trot tendency have no real policy and ideology - it is a tendency motivated by oppositionism and spite.
But when politics plays itself out the trots always get sent packing - so when in doubt always pick the opposite side to trot tendency. IMHO the heavy trot backing for Obama is proof that in the end John Sydney McCain will be President.
Kirri, truly I dont mind your contributions - I just find they are not very original - after all anybody can (with a certain intelligence) look up the WAPO or NYT - its just the one idea you seem to have is we are about to witness the next great depression - its just a little tired for the 9000th time.
Finns,
KR only hates you because you exist. (a flea biting the Pope in Rome)
KR hates ESJ (and now apparently me) because we stand up to him.
But you can upgrade yourself.
“Three former chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission will publicly endorse Democratic Sen. Barack Obama’s bid for the presidency Wednesday, including one who served under President Bush.
William Donaldson, who was SEC chairman for about 2½ years from early 2003, along with Clinton and Reagan appointees Arthur Levitt and David Ruder, will join former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in endorsing Sen. Obama, his campaign said. Mr. Volcker endorsed Sen. Obama in January.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121073227421390697.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Oh, I’m a ‘trot’ now! LOL
God you’re a sad sick old bloviating piece of work!
You, on the other hand, come here for one reason only.
Like a dog to its vomit, that’s you Eddy…greasy.
310
Pancho
yeah, more ‘racists’ trying to hide it by endorsing the black guy.
There must be an epidemic of that going around.
Hey, I don’t even read the WAPO! LOL
Okay, I think we’ve all had our say about each other now.
#309 - [KR only hates you because you exist] - No, GG, he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff as a:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=55wWiFi6BFo
My god, just love this song.
Obama picks up 2 more SDs, Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques and Indiana Rep. Pete Visclosky. From http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/14/obama-starts-wednesday-with-two-new-supers/.
I think the most important question here - and it is something I have been pondering over a few days because it has been a recurring theme - is who are these SDs making their pledges at 4 in the morning?
OK Finns,
We’ll add your name to the execution list, on your request.
GG, like a badge of honour my friend.
Pancho
It would be nice to think they were lying in bed - staring at the ceiling and were just struck with the overwhelming need to endorse Obama.
I’d expect the supers put their news release in early to get a good run on the breakfast news cycle.
Should be another couple to for evening cycle if the Obama machine is running to form.
Thanks for the update, Catrina.
As someone who is ambivalent about all three candidates it doesn’t make me feel anything much, actually, but I would observe that the SD flow is the surest sign that Obama’s got the nomination in the bag.
It will take “being caught with a dead girl or a live boy” (or some equivalently scandalous revelation) for the SDs to be willing to risk their careers by unseating him now. Hillary clearly knows it too.
FINNS
#306
No Amigo , it was re your (& my) anguish of the earthquake in China
Ron #1362
TO FINNS
Well I tried real hard to focus on the economic garble conversation here trying to avoid writing a ditty of China thought to you so I’ll leave you my immediate thoughts when seeing your blog , which would have been the dittys last line from a friend
‘the heart fills with sadness , as little bit me is lost’
For those of you who missed the by election results in Mississippi today here is part of what you would find on the Votemaster. The Republicans got slaughtered. By my estimation a swing of more than 30%
The MS-01 loss is especially painful to the GOP for three reasons. First, the Republicans tried very, very hard here, pouring in huge amounts of money and having Gov. Haley Barbour and Vice President Dick Cheney campaign for Davis. Second, in IL-14 and LA-06 they could argue they had flawed candidates. That doesn’t hold here. Greg Davis is a popular mayor who has done a good job and has never been involved in any scandals. Third, this election was the second field test of the Republicans’ November strategy, which they rolled out against Cazayoux and refined here. They ran ads bitterly attacking Childers as a close associate and fellow traveler of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. They called him a LIBERAL (them’s fightin’ words in Mississippi). They said he didn’t represent Mississippi values. They tried everything. It didn’t work.
At this point NRCC chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is probably sweating bullets. He has hardly any money left and the only arrow in his quiver is calling Democrats tax-and-spend liberals. If that doesn’t work in R+7 districts (LA-06) and R+10 districts (MS-01) what’s going to happen in swing districts like AZ-01, FL-15, IL-11, IL-18, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-29, OH-15, OH-16, VA-01, and VA-11, all of which are Republican-held open seats that are R+5 or less?
http://www.electoral-vote.com
#321 - tq ron. was a little upset yesterday.
Votemaster is due to update so you may have to go back to the previous day.
It doesn’t matter how much spin people put on it, and the will, it just adds up to one thing. Oblivion.
Spell check: They will.
Good evening bludgers,
Just got home from a long day to peruse the events in the US.
It appears there’s been one more SD endorse The Kid sine earlier today, taking Obama’s SD lead to 12/
The headlines around the US seem to be sayng….
HILLARY HAS COMLETELY FLOGGED OBAMA IN WV!!
…….BUT WHO CARES!!
Good evening, everyone,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or0eZYbvHiU
When they can’t cut the mustard, they Custer Muster.
Popular vote: BHO, check, ding!
Delegate count: BHO, check, ding!
Super Delegate count: BHO, check, ding!
Three recent House wins in Gingrichville: check, ding!
The Big MO: BHO, check, ding!
Sirs, it would appear that your GOPper-Express credit card is no longer valid. Do you have some other form of legal tender?
And Gentleman Growler and Eddy Eslowpoke, when you’re asked for some collateral, there’s no need to pull down your pants.
Thanks for that info #322, Chris B. It confirms that the 2006 elections were much more than a protest vote. Voters seem permanently disillusioned with the incompetence, greed and corruption evident in the Bush regime. It extends beyond the mess created in Iraq, although that was clearly the starting point.
The media ownership has been in close cahoots with the Bush-Rove-Cheney agenda from the beginning. But there are many voters and potential voters that don’t believe them any more than the Government. So while racism is probably still a concern in the US, it is improbable that blatant appeals to red-neckery and Bible-toting will get many more votes.
Obama is clearly right in aiming for a new era. It is simply not credible that McCain, who wants to continue the Iraq debacle and has no known economic policies, will beat Obama by appealing to prejudice.
Obama will beat him a lot easier than he has beaten Hillary, who carried some sentiment from the Clinton era plus being the first female candidate.
Don which swing states will Obama win?
Chris B
‘oz’ voters distinguish between State & Federal governments (Labor held most States throughout most of Howard’s 10 year, kept electing Labor at State & Howard at Federal. Bush is on the nose in the US and the Polls show it.
However McCain Polls are strong (showing him easily beating Obama , whilst Hillary beating him). part of the reason is McCain for over 3 years makes regular TV interviews and in the main bags Bush on policy which has insulated him signicantly from the anti Bush sentiment (the fact he doen’t like Bush may be an added incentive for him). As for Obama , the kid , all kids are L”" platers
EC, come across this one yet? http://wpcomics.washingtonpost.com/client/wpc/ta/2008/05/08/
Indeed Ron,
Look at electoral-vote.com and look at the swing states - very few polls have Obama above 45%.
ron/Ron
‘did you get my 1 line’…alas, no; “gay abandon” , interesting choice of words…do tell…
ESJ/ FINNS
Involved in Political strategies. Don’t know how clever the Repugs are
Take Economy , no 3 issue in US…..
the Dems have had control of Congress , its their fault. house prices down, its the Dems.
Take Iraq , no 4 issue in US….
Unpopular , but Howard proved economy always aces in voters hip pocket , anyway not sure of its vote defining traction.
ADD: Obama to pull troops out 60 days , 61st day , petrol to go from #3 to #5
always good for the battlers votes & hip pocket independents
Left out no 1 and 2 issues , the ADDS on them to, Patriotism (Wright) and National Security (which is the no 1 sleeper always , unlike here
FINNS , no problem , some miracles with some kids mate
Ron
I’ve got a link at 37 to a Rasmussen poll on this issue. The takehome message was that the Repugs are seriously on the nose. The Dems more trusted for the economy, government ethics and corruption, national security and the War of Terror.
BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security.
315
The Finnigans Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
#309 - [KR only hates you because you exist] - No, GG, he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff as a:
….You did what?
When?
OK, find the post(s)
You are living in your fetid imagination Finn.
Ron - [FINNS , no problem , some miracles] - yeah, what about Mr. Kevin Rubb and his $41B “slush funds” . How many elections can you win with $41B worth porkies? Brilliant politician Mr. Rubb.
308
Edward StJohn Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
There is a tendency in politics called the trot tendency. Those of the trot tendency have no real policy and ideology - it is a tendency motivated by oppositionism and spite…
….
This sounds like an apt description of the WA Liberal party; at least, in relation to each other, their spite is unreserved.
#337 - if you dont know by now, you will never know. Go and find it yourself.
ESJ (and anyone else ghoulish enough to participate)
Can I propose an addition to our Death List, which was criticised as being in poor taste, sick and irrelevant to a political blog?
We could predict the next politician to be assassinated. This would be quite relevant to this blog and provide an interesting insight into foreign affairs. Perhaps we could name five leaders? I think terrorist leaders should be included, as they are world leaders too. Just ask The Chaser about the famous leader they helped into APEC.
I always assumed it was Kirribilli removals as in removing John Howard now I am thinking it is Kirribilli removals as in a term used by the AFP for “removals” from Kirribilli House of the types you see on the news “protesting” outside Kirribilli House
Cool Diogenes, I am working on it as I type
Yep, Pancho, posted it back on publication date (May
with a comment about an Energiser Bunny in denial.
Wed May 14: Street scene in Wheeling, West Virginia.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Akyrgksmxq4xVlHMs6ij9zFL6ysC
Ready Diogenes?
It had a smell to it, and yes, those shirts came prepared:
Another point: Most of the media fell hook, line and sinker for the “Iron my shirt!” stunt at a Hillary campaign event in January in New Hampshire, where two scruffy male hecklers were clearly in collusion with her staff. (The signs — including one suspiciously permitted on the stage itself — were carefully positioned and lit, and Hillary had a pat prepared line to draw camera attention to them.) Those dorky guys, at least one with a link to a radio station, are far too young to have the slightest knowledge of an era when women ironed men’s shirts — or when shirts needed ironing at all! Businessmen’s shirts go to the cleaners nowadays, and everyone else’s gear is just tossed into the dryer. That hoax was designed to reawaken the atavistic resentments of older women voters — and it worked.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/05/14/tarantella/index1.html
…and watch the clip if you missed it first time around.
Ron: As you are aware the Superdelegates ALL could drop Obama any day they choose right up to & including a convention. They are L plate endorsements (voidable)
Does it get more delusional than this. Why bother posting this tripe on a site like this
340
The Finnigans
Oh, that’s a good game Finns!
Let’s see:
I beat you at chess, and you’ve been narky ever since.
I beat you with arithmetic too
I beat you with actual sentences (many times)
I beat you because, well, I just do
…now, you go back and find the posts.
RCP Sd lead has just been adjusted to +13 to Obama and increase on 1.
Obama’s national average lead over Hillary has also been adjusted upwards from 5.1 this morning to 7.8 this evening.
After today, though, I’d suggest she going to go at least till 3 June.
343 ESJ
Shall we say five names this time tomorrow? I’ll need to sleep on it before putting the kisses of death on our great men and women. Benazir Bhutto would have been a dead cert at the start of the year. And there must be some other morbid bludgers who would have a winning list.
Too many wines tonight. The above should read:
RCP SD lead has just been adjusted to +13 to Obama an increase of 1
Abbas from the Palestinian Authority
Obama in the US
Gaddafi in Libya
That Afghan guy with the coloured dress
Musharraf from Pakistan
How’s this for starters Diogenes?
Sorry kids, but this “dead pool” crap is seriously off topic.
We’re picking assassin’s targets now?? You’re getting repulsive guys. Sheesh.
The world according to GG
Greeensborough Growler Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
One thing today’s result confirms is that the Obama campaign has stalled
So lets see, ahead in the pledged delegate count, overtaken Hillary in the SD count, needs 30% of delegates to win
If this is stalling, I take it over whatever you call what Hillary is doing
You guys are just plain ridiculous. Please, just tell me HOW/WHY Hillary will get the numbers to win
#348 - just love stewing
349
Ferny Grover
I think we can now safely say two things: Obama will win, and Hillary will stay.
Just what she expects to get out of it is a little unclear (well, apart from the $20m she’s out of pocket), but I guess it will all come out in the wash.
Even if she won’t have to iron it afterwards! (What a tacky bit of vaudeville that was! LOL)
ESJ: I haven’t really done much of a study of the US yet . But I’d suggest that there might be quite a large number of ‘never previously voted’ among Obama voters.
I don’t know how opinion polling works in America: Does everyone’s opinion count or only those who bother to vote? Obama supporters have rallied in the Dem primaries to get many ‘new’ voters along. If he gets the Dem nomination I’d expect those efforts to expand exponentially. Of course, there are probably some ‘red’ states where there will be a lot of barriers placed to registering to vote. I’d expect Dems to be forming legal committees to challenge such fiddles.
But having learnt a thing or two about Republican tactics, I’d be very surprised if Jeb Bush and his cronies got away with their disenfranchising games this time. It wouldn’t surprise me if attempts to violate human rights ended up in court. So maybe Florida will turn blue this time, even if they might really prefer Hillary as their candidate. For similar reasons I’d expect the Republicans to be in a lot of trouble trying to rort the vote in Ohio.
While, as Ron says, McCain may be getting some traction from mostly disliking or disagreeing with Bush, but it will go a lot deeper than that. He’ll have to disown and distance himself from Bush (and Cheney, too) to have any chance. And reverse a lot of policies.
Dio @ 336,
Exactly why the general could be a fascinating contest.
Will McCain’s career-long distance from the Republican mainstream pay off in the most spectacular way possible, as the electorate crushes the Party in the Senate and House but make him POTUS anyway?
Or will his lack of core Party support be what does him in, as traditional Republican voters stay at home?
Will America elect a black man as President?
Will all the independent voters just decide the Republicans have to go, period?
I don’t think the answers are at all obvious. Just because the vast majority of PBers can’t envisage ever voting for McCain, that doesn’t mean the American electorate won’t. The recent by-election results are persuasive, but not yet conclusive in the face of consistently close opinion polling.
Should be a great spectacle.
According to cnn:
38 % of Clinton’s voters said they would vote for Obama in a general election matchup against presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain. 54 % of Obama’s voters said they would vote for Clinton against McCain.
Whilst these numbers I think are much lower than what would happen (they are dampened in the heat of the race), the fact that Obama supporters are more willing to support Hillary says it all about the candidates, their campaigns and their supporters
Above numbers are WV voters
William
As you wish. Just trying to introduce a little levity. There seems to be an unhealthy undercurrent of antagonism at the moment. I will never speak of death lists again.
356
The Finnigans
No Finns, you love talking out your backside, as in:
“he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff ”
…now, put up the posts where this incredible (non)event occured, or, STFU.
Go on. Or are you just blowing hard, yet again?
This NEVER happened, except in your tiny mind, Finns.
358
Don Wigan
I think they poll registered voters Don, but someone may know differently.
Actually I distinctly recall it Kirri.
Diogenes
#336
“BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security”
Ron : you are too quick. In 2 primarys time Oregon , which Obama will win 10% to 15% , I was going to use that to deflect barbs. Yes the economy per Polling shows economy is a problem for either Dems Candidate due to the Dems congress control since 2006, McCain distanced himself 3 years ago from Bush (Bush also to blame) , meaning he’s the only ‘innocent’. Unbelievable politics. Although McCain has also flip floped on the Bush tax rises, by doing a Howard will use either argument as it suits
National security from an American-centric viewpoint where all my blogs are based on , is a real problem for Obama , which is why Hillary years ago
‘positioned’ herself strongly in that area to insulate against Repug attacks Cost her dearly now) Oama hasn’t , and being a NE Liberal makes his position less defendable on National Security
Finally Diogenes , I’ve always said there were 2 Obama supporter groups here , core Obama supporters & Obamabots. The former now the ObamaRealists
and Dyno fits that , duly inducted with free wine
357 KR
Yes on both counts. Obama’s win is way beyind doubt. The only real issues are:
*When will HRC go away?
*What does she want to go away?
*How much damage can she do in the meantime?
359 Dyno
I agree that the predictions of a walkover for Obama are grossly optimistic, and probably totally irrational. It could easily be like the each-way bet Aussies used to to have here where they voted one party in the lower house and fenced their bet with the opposite in the upper house. The Dems could clean up in the two houses but the “independent maverick” be a counterbalance as President.
360
Andrew
Yep, they really are a different class of people! LOL
I think the most amazing thing is watching Hillary turn into the Alien mother and start drooling over the Democratic party! LOL
Well, she hasn’t quite gone that far yet, but you get the feeling it’s only just around the corner…
Pass the popcorn, here comes the scary bit…
#363 - still love my stewing, pass the popcorns
maybe more like pass the vinegar and salt
Quite so, FG. What exactly is she doing?
Raising money to re-coup her debts? Maybe.
Trying to get VP? Sabotaging the nominee is an odd way to go about it.
Trying to get Obama to pay off her debts? Possible I guess, but why would he agree to do such a silly thing with the money others have given him in good faith.
Thinks she can still win? A highly intelligent woman, whose whole adult life has been steeped in Dem Party politics, thinks this could still happen? - surely not.
365
Edward StJohn
Oh do surprise me!
You share hallucinations with Finn?
Well then, you help him find these posts that do not exist!
The cyber clones share a memory of non-existant events!
Only on PollBludgers.
Monsieur Wigan, welcome! You’ve hit upon a problem. In polling for the primaries they just randomly sample and ask whether the respondent is likely to vote. But in the general election polling, I believe they also try to weight for demography. They assume (from what I’ve read on pollster.com) that if black voters were 10% of the electorate in the last election then they will be 10% next time. But if Obama means they will actually be 13%, this leads to a distortion. The same works with any other group that has been historically low in participation (such as, for instance, young people). The pollsters estimate that the proportions of different ethnic groups, age groups etc will follow established patterns because they have to - they have no data to model rapid change. This isn’t a problem in Australian elections because of compulsorary voting, but I suspect it could be a serious distortion in US elections. There is an assumption, for instance, that the difference between the tight McCain versus Clinton or Obama polls and the way in which Repugs are being trounced in these “special elections” is because McCain isn’t seen as a Republican. But it may just be that the turnout of previously apathetic groups has made the pollers sampling unrepresentative. Apparently the turnout in the Mississippi election today/yesterday was stratospheric.
OK Finns, I’ve called your bluff.
Where are the posts?
Can’t find them?
Won’t defend your assinine claim against me?
Well ladies and gentleman, that speaks for itself.
But Eddy can ‘remember’ them! LOL
Delusional, but joined by a memory.
FIINS
##338
yep very clever our Kevin07 that 41 bil.
FINNS #340
you’ve confused k/r telling him to look. Perhaps you weren’t live at the time but our k/r implied putting everyone’s posts onto his computer. Can you imagine the time job you’ve created ?
FINNS re oblivious Andrew #360 , can one see the Obama problem, a yes will do
Ron, you dont mean my stalker parrot is back. The one that DEMANDS i answer his question.
Tues May 13; Gouldie, here’s one for you.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AlRFh5.URw_kyBDouRwAwStW_b4F
Wed May 14:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=At6s.E9__P8nFAfwh6amIDdX_b4F
Calamari Cartoon propaganda:
Then: (scroll down a smidge)
http://www.hyperhistory.org/index.php?option=displaypage&Itemid=751&op=page
And Now:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=ArS2U_zWxMsKtCO3vXMoZ2oDwLAF
Seems the White Man’s Burden is never ending.
Well ever since they skedaddled from Europe, anyway.
Hey, c’mon, whoever said hegemony didn’t have it’s hang-ups?
374
Robert Bollard
“Apparently the turnout in the Mississippi election today/yesterday was stratospheric”
…and the white honkey got a good black turnout because, well the Republicans had done him the favour of reminding them he was for Obama’s team! LOL
These record turnouts and new enrollments are seriously messing with the percieved house rules.
Republicans must be sh!tting themselves when Cheney turns up to half a small room and their candidate gets trounced in deepest red territory.
377
The Finnigans
Hang on:
YOU ACCUSED ME!
But you will not provide any proof of your great vanquishing of me at Bahasa, which is incredibly funny because I neither speak it, nor have ever claimed to! LOL
If you can’t substantiate your ludicrous claim about ‘beating’ me over something, maybe you should just skulk off.
Or aren’t you man enough to hold your reputation here higher than that?
What next Kirri are you going to challenge Finns to a duel?
KR @ 380,
Sorry, but who cares?
378
Enemy Combatant
Classic cartoon from the Bulletin Ecky, and more than famous since. Been a while since I’ve seen it, but I noticed the tentacle with pak ah-pu and it reminds me of the old ocker expression for something which was an untidy, undecipherable mess: “it looks like a bloody pak ah-pu ticket”.
Now I know I shouldn’t, but there are quite a few rambling posts around here for which I’d dealy love to resurrect that old saying!
(For those who may not know, outside the Chinese gambling clubs in Sydney the streets were littered with ‘pak ah-pu’ tickets, which were, of course, in Chinese)
381
Edward StJohn
You lost last our last one I seem to remember Eddy.
What did William call your ridiculous claim against me?
Or, have you ‘conventiently’ forgotten?
‘conveniently’
382
Dyno
Who cares that Finn is a craven little creature who makes silly accusations he can’t back up?
I dunno, nobody probably! LOL
Superdelegate Update …
DNC Christine Marques (DA) and Rep. Peter Visclosky (IN) have endorced Obama. Christine represents 0.5 of a vote while Peter carries the full kit - bringing the count up 1.5 to 285.5 (that’s 15 a delegate lead or a 22 delegate lead with the Pelosi factor included).
Obama: 291.5 (285.5+6)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Now who was it again that was talking about a stalled campaign?
Has anyone been checking the RCP figures regularly? The SDs are cascading to Obama something chronic. I grabbed the figures from RCP and had a fiddle on the Forbes calculator, entering the most conservative estimate I could of Obama’s chances in the remaining primaries and found that he only needs 14% of the remaining SDs to win (down from 20% earlier TODAY). The toast is burning; somone call the fire brigade!
Oh, and by the way, Clinton won West Virginia and is almost in heaven. Well, she IS on life support…
Don’t get cocky Catrina….you know we are only days away from all these Supers coming to their senses and on mass switching their votes to the loser of the campaign.
Snap Catrina!
You are right HarryH this was brilliantly predicted as early as last Wednesday by our very own Kirri.
Sorry for the hubris Harry. But I can’t help it. Go the Trot Tendency! Apropos of which, in the wake of Mississippi district 1, I take this opportunity to remind ESJ of his pledge, if Texas voted for Obama in November, to “join the ISO”.
Comrade Bob you’ll keep. Note you did not choose to answer the Kronstadt question from earlier today?
ESJ - I’ve spent most of the afternoon in various classrooms. If I missed a question then I’m sorry. (Not really, as, knowing you, it was probably facetious).
ps, I told you to stop calling me comrade. I’m also not “Bob”.
Wouldn’t it be a little slice of Heaven if Obi appointed Richardson VP(just to stick it to Billary) and with the help of AA’s and Hispanics won Texas(just to stick it to Bush).
Both sides of the deceitful alliance, that for the last 20 years has divided the USA into 2 halves for their own fifedoms, hit with one stone.
I am hurt Mr Bollard, refer my 18.
HarryH at 389:
Harry, yep - got the giggles when I read that one.
“Portland Tribune Poll: Obama Way Ahead in Oregon
A new Portland Tribune poll in Oregon finds Sen. Barack Obama “has amassed a nearly insurmountable lead” in advance of next week’s primary.
Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton by 20 points, 55% to 35%, among likely Democratic voters.
Said pollster Tim Hibbetts: “Barring a disaster, Barack Obama’s going to win Oregon, and he may win it very big. This is the widest lead that I’ve seen of any poll for Obama in Oregon. I’d be shocked if Obama didn’t win here.”
http://politicalwire.com/
In Oregon there are 52 dels up for grabs. Obi’s share there will more than balance any del. pick ups by HRC in Ky.
Of course then there will only be a tiny bunch remaining from which Senator What About Me can hope to bridge an impossible divide.
Meanwhile the beat of Catrina’s SD-Updates goes on!!
“The drums, the drums, if only they’d quit pounding on those goddamn drums!”
——-Senator H.R-Clinton after a recent visit with Mayor Ray Nagin to Congo Square, NOLA.
Robert #1477
“They (Robert’s my arguments) should be flawed by my foolish extremism.
But the name of the game is spotting, exposing, and arguing against said flaws”
Ron: I’m about to.
Robert , you continue to either innocently misunderstand or tactically misquote my comments and your lack of , or disingenuous reply may answer. I will put this as bluntly & as succinctly.
Before addressing the political flaw in your first post #1446 , I’ll address your tactics
Firstly , you throw in red herring barbs:.
1/ Robert #1477 “my (apparently equal) sin of being an “academic”.False. The fact you are an academic has never been an issue or barrier to me with you. Some of my best friends incidently are academics (& some tradesmen) so what , and I in any event admire their achievement. The comment was very disingenuous of you because you know I make references to some Obamabots having academia inspired politically correct /symbolism based/elitist thinking (not “elite”) impractical policys. This academic group i have no time/respect for
2/ Robert #1477 “oh he’s a socialist so he must be wrong”. Not correct.I don’t. Your barb however is often used as a debating diversion to which I always say ‘show me the quote’ but for NOW , lets back to the point. If you thought I implied this, answer unwitting
3/ Robert #1459 “you really want to take a breather on your occasional red
baiting”
(a) False , no red baiting , the baiting was against those ‘academia dreamy non ‘reds’. My blog #1452 in part said “WV voted against a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t was rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters. But what do you do , try & explain why sensible people reject such looney left ideas”. The ‘looney left’ views I was clearly referring to are in the same sentence ie. “left Liberal Democrat & not related to ‘reds’. Disingenuous. No red baiting there
(b) My blog #1452 I said “NO , try to explain away voters rejection of your lefty ideas” (by saying WV loss was as its all racist).
Whilst point (a) clearly referred to the ‘left Liberal Democrats’ & their looney leftishness , this quote I acknowledge referred to your ‘left’ political leanings of anti US & anti workering class as ‘morons & racists’ for voting for a Hillary or a Repug rather than voting further ‘left’. That’s my perception , but No red baiting implied , just ‘lefty ideas’(Obama’s) & yours general ‘lefty ideas (different to them) were rejected by WV voters & you were using racism as a reason)
4/ Robert #1477 “a Tory like your mate ESJ”. Wicked , Robert.You’re a socialist & you’re my bloging mate also , OK. I’m happy to debate ESJ (clever, respectful of my alternative views to his & civilised to me) at any time , & happy to with you also. Even though re both of you I have profound policy differences, there’s no personal animosity with either of you todate. (as an aside , thought you were abit discourteous challenging me on Truman’s decision, & then after me giving a detailed 4 page reply , silence , maybe you missed my reply)
Finally , the political flaw in your original #1446 was its reliance on your perception of WV cultural attitudes. ie. as if they were a Southern Repug ‘red’ State who voted for the ‘white’ Hillary over the ‘black’ Obama. My point is the State is a pro Dems State , Dems winning 8 of the last 12 , and so its not a Repug ‘red’ racist State. Furthermore i was saying WV statistically generally do NOT vote for a “left Liberal Democrat”, but will vote for a ‘centre’ Dem generally as per above 12 POTUS elections (Gore the exception by 6%). Kerry a ‘left Liberal Democrat’ got thrashed by 13% and your ‘friend’ another ‘left Liberal Democrat McGovern 1972 got thrahed by 27%. Note just 4 years earlier in 1968 the Dems had won WV by 9%.
The psephological evidence is voters vote NO to a “NE left liberal type Democrat”. Obama is one so Obama go thrashed due to his political leanings by the ‘centre’ Hillary , and his race was not the cause as you implied. The fact Hillary a NON ‘left Liberal Democrat leads on polls by 5% in WV itself over the Repug McCain only reinforces my point.That was my view supported by stats and not related to your socialism at all & continues to be my view. Over to you
For the top of the page, a follow-up note on the Christine Schon Marques endorsement of Barack Obama for president - I like her words - and as our friends in America would say - I would like to share this you:
ESJ - regarding the Constituent Assembly, read State and Revolution and learn what the word “Soviet” originally meant. Regarding Kronstadt there are two arguments. One is recent research by historians (mostly non-Marxist - and based on the now-available archives) which has confirmed that the idea of the 1921 rebellion in the naval base as some sort of anarchist uprising is a myth. The revolutionary sailors of 1917 had gone off to fight in the Civil War and their peasant replacements, pissed off by the Bolshevik regime’s requisition of grain to feed Petrograd, rose in revolt. With the British Navy blockading a few k’s off the Red Army crushed the revolt. It was (and this is NOT controversial) one of the triggers for Lenin’s retreat to the NEP later that year.
In any case, even if the myth of anarchist sailors dying whilst singing The Internationale is true (apart from why it would be of interest to a Tory like you!), to me it doesn’t matter. If the myth was true, it would only prove that the inevitable degeneration of the Revolution, once it failed to spread out of backward Russia - once the revolutions in Europe, and Gernmany in particular, were crushed - began a bit earlier.
That’s all I have to say on the subject. It’s more than you deserve. It’s also (ever so slightly) off topic, and I apologise to fellow bludgers for that.
Robert
#1477 (Ron 400 (bottom of last page)
“They (Robert’s my arguments) should be flawed by my foolish extremism.
But the name of the game is spotting, exposing, and arguing against said flaws”
Ron: I’m about to.
Robert , you continue to either innocently misunderstand or tactically misquote my comments and your lack of , or disingenuous reply may answer. I will put this as bluntly & as succinctly.
Before addressing the political flaw in your first post #1446 , I’ll address your tactics
Firstly , you throw in red herring barbs:.
1/ Robert #1477 “my (apparently equal) sin of being an “academic”.False. The fact you are an academic has never been an issue or barrier to me with you. Some of my best friends incidently are academics (& some tradesmen) so what , and I in any event admire their achievement. The comment was very disingenuous of you because you know I make references to some Obamabots having academia inspired politically correct /symbolism based/elitist thinking (not “elite”) impractical policys. This academic group i have no time/respect for
2/ Robert #1477 “oh he’s a socialist so he must be wrong”. Not correct.I don’t. Your barb however is often used as a debating diversion to which I always say ‘show me the quote’ but for NOW , lets back to the point. If you thought I implied this, answer unwitting
3/ Robert #1459 “you really want to take a breather on your occasional red
baiting”
(a) False , no red baiting , the baiting was against those ‘academia dreamy non ‘reds’. My blog #1452 in part said “WV voted against a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t was rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters. But what do you do , try & explain why sensible people reject such looney left ideas”. The ‘looney left’ views I was clearly referring to are in the same sentence ie. “left Liberal Democrat & not related to ‘reds’. Disingenuous. No red baiting there
(b) My blog #1452 I said “NO , try to explain away voters rejection of your lefty ideas” (by saying WV loss was as its all racist).
Whilst point (a) clearly referred to the ‘left Liberal Democrats’ & their looney leftishness , this quote I acknowledge referred to your ‘left’ political leanings of anti US & anti workering class as ‘morons & racists’ for voting for a Hillary or a Repug rather than voting further ‘left’. That’s my perception , but No red baiting implied , just ‘lefty ideas’(Obama’s) & yours general ‘lefty ideas (different to them) were rejected by WV voters & you were using racism as a reason)
4/ Robert #1477 “a Tory like your mate ESJ”. Wicked , Robert.You’re a socialist & you’re my bloging mate also , OK. I’m happy to debate ESJ (clever, respectful of my alternative views to his & civilised to me) at any time , & happy to with you also. Even though re both of you I have profound policy differences, there’s no personal animosity with either of you todate. (as an aside , thought you were abit discourteous challenging me on Truman’s decision, & then after me giving a detailed 4 page reply , silence , maybe you missed my reply)
Finally , the political flaw in your original #1446 was its reliance on your perception of WV cultural attitudes. ie. as if they were a Southern Repug ‘red’ State who voted for the ‘white’ Hillary over the ‘black’ Obama. My point is the State is a pro Dems State , Dems winning 8 of the last 12 , and so its not a Repug ‘red’ racist State. Furthermore i was saying WV statistically generally do NOT vote for a “left Liberal Democrat”, but will vote for a ‘centre’ Dem generally as per above 12 POTUS elections (Gore the exception by 6%). Kerry a ‘left Liberal Democrat’ got thrashed by 13% and your ‘friend’ another ‘left Liberal Democrat McGovern 1972 got thrahed by 27%. Note just 4 years earlier in 1968 the Dems had won WV by 9%.
The psephological evidence is voters vote NO to a “NE left liberal type Democrat”. Obama is one so Obama go thrashed due to his political leanings by the ‘centre’ Hillary , and his race was not the cause as you implied. The fact Hillary a NON ‘left Liberal Democrat leads on polls by 5% in WV itself over the Repug McCain only reinforces my point.That was my view supported by stats and not related to your socialism at all & continues to be my view. Over to you
As the nomination comes to a wrap (or maybe a catfight with the DNC, who knows!), it’s good to remember the lessons of our betters:
Adam Says:
January 27th, 2008
It doesn’t matter whether the FL and MI delegates are seated or not. Clinton will sweep the board on Super Tuesday and thereafter it will be a procession. Obama and Edwards will probably stay in the race out of spite against Clinton, but the party machines will fall into line behind Clinton once it is clear she has the nomination wrapped up.
…the ‘out of spite’ bit is 100%, if you change some names around! LOL
Ron at 403
You know your repeating yourself don’t you?
It’s not a good look.
Oh, by the way, while looking at some PB archives, I came across a gem. I thought you would be interested in this little artifact form the grave …
Ron Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
*twinkle*
Oh, don’t you like that term of coronation:
“procession”?
It was, a bloody procession of defeats!
just replace form with from
KR at 406
Not to mention a procession of defection!
Oh, and one more because it shows crystal balls can be unreliable:
Once Clinton is the nominee the black community will be quick to get on the bandwaggon. The want the Repubs out as much as anyone and more than most. Clinton will get the usual 80-90% of the black vote come November.
…oooooooops!
408
Catrina
Yes, that too.
Those Supers are right tarts eh? Show ‘em a majority and they’re anybody’s! LOL
KR at 409
It’s like having a free pass in a lolly shop!
This one’s worth a giggle:
Greeensborough Growler Says:
January 28th
ESJ,
Don’t be a prat all your life.
Dr. Judge Growler
________________________
Quite clearly Eddy didn’t bother to take GG’s advice!
KR at 412
I have a better one than that!
Ron: February 25th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Oh my, where did that come from!
Article from the SMH… an interesting look at what some people say is the Death Watch:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/us-election/bcommentb-dana-milbank/2008/05/14/1210444530303.html
413
Catrina
Yeah, it was a one night stand! (Hence the guilt! LOL)
He’s been doing a Bill Clinton ever since, as in “I did not go over the top for that candidate” type denial.
414
OzFrog
She’s got ’style’ that Hillary:
She pretends to spot an old friend, points and gives another wave; in fact, she waves at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.
…pining for the fiords indeed! LOL
KR at 415
LOL, yep … but, just between you and me and to his credit, I agree with Ron’s position of delegate maths.
February 26th, 2008 at 10:02 am
“and as our friends in America would say - I would like to share this you:”
It’s so totally reassuring to know where you’re coming from on this one, Catrina:)
I really think it’s SO CUTE the way you Ahh-seees tark!
Kirri at 404, I’m afraid Adam’s swing and miss record as a pinch hitter is even worse than that of the gentle, Rain. Still, with comprehensive achive access and a mind like a steel-trap(well, most times), you are plainly not a man to be trifled with.
This time next week, as we choke on our tofu, we’ll be picking over the bones of Oregon and Caintuck. Yummy.
418
Enemy Combatant
Yes sir, it goes to show that it takes an expert to get things really wrong! In fairness, it was the recieved wisdom, the paradigm du jour, and everyone tried to fit the data to the preconception.
With varying degrees of non-success.
I wouldn’t have minded, but being an ‘ignorant loathing leftie’, I tend to take notice when I and fellow bludgers are getting p!ssed on from some ivory tower.
Anway, it’s fun trawling the archives, and I had a good chuckle over a few of yours I might add.(That’s a non-pejorative chuckle by the way, just in case…)
417
Catrina
He was so succinct in those days!
I really do wonder sometimes as I’m scrolling past those posts of late (as yes, I have a confession: I don’t actually read them, would you believe it?).
Bewilderbeasts.
That’s what it is, a bad case of stampeding bewilderbeasts!
Two more supers in the pipeline. DNC guys are still asleep so validation is not available. What makes this one a little interesting is that the endorsement is on YouTube from two supers representing CollegeDemocrats for America. No prize for guessing the candidate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VARYagkoAQo
Here’s one final, counter-intuitive observation.
Remember Hillary wanting to gouge out her gas tax holiday from the oil companies?
Well, not from the refineries she couldn’t:
Experts say the refiners are caught in a double bind. The price of their raw material, oil, is rising because of strong global demand. At the same time, consumption of gasoline in the United States is falling as a result of slower economic growth and consumer efforts to conserve.
However much the companies would like to raise gasoline prices enough to pass along the full increases in oil, analysts say they have been unable to do it. Oil prices doubled in the past year, while wholesale gasoline prices rose a mere 39 percent.
…and ouch, they got their margins squeezed in a vice. Considering that refining capacity is very restrained in the States, it’s hard to see how they’ll attract the investment to expand it under such conditions.
Hard to imagine this part of the industry was plunkin’ for Hillary! LOL
421
Catrina
So Catrina, by your reckoning, back of the envelope even, how many more sleeps until, you know, the magic number?
9
Ratttling the tin:
Mrs. Clinton, her campaign sent a text message to supporters’ cell phones less than an hour after the polls closed, hailing the victory and urging them to donate money at her Web site. A similar pitch arrived by e-mail two minutes later.
NYT
KR, expect the archives will be well worth a geeze as the campaign rolls on.
Anyway, don’t let the blighters get you down. You match them every time and then some.
Colbert’s still got his zing. BillO sure is schmuckus maximus. Remember the time Obi blew him off for an interview on the trail earlier this year? He dummy spat major. Obi doen’t need to deal with dick-heads like BillO to become POTUS and it irks him as it would an egocentric jock who missed out on a root on prom night.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/stephen-colbert-imitates_n_101641.html
424
Catrina
Off to sleep for me, and tomorrow, it’ll be just 8.
Night.
KR at 427
G’night Kirri!
426
Enemy Combatant
yeah, they’re priceless those archives.
Thanks for the encouragement award, but they don’t really get to me more than the time it takes to type a reply. Lower order irritants on life’s scale of crappola.
My main irritation has been a PC meltdown of massive proportions, hard drive (main) and motherboard. I had to get a rescue on the main drive to recover files although my work files were on a back-up drive.
So after a complete re-instal of the OS, I downloaded Windows Explorer V7 and it siezed up the whole box and dice!
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
Easier to format drive and start again!
Now that, is SERIOUSLY annoying. Eddy and his doppleganger are for amusement between bouts of screaming at an inanimate object! LOL
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Superdelegate Update
Its for HILLARY. An add-on super Vicky Harwell (TN) has endorsed Clinton bringing here numbers up to 271 and knocking Obama lead back to 21.5.
Catrina
#405
1/ Tonight 15/5/08 you quoted on 24 words allegedly “mine” from 11/2/08 ! ONLY 6 of those 24 words are mine. Therefore you are an intellectual fraud.
2/ Like the coward k/r , you deliberately included Dyno’s words from his #60 blog as mine. My blog makes this obvious. Not only did I quote in my #66
Dyno’s blog no #60 & his words as his, but Dyno’s blog was only 6 blogs earlier so in addition to a fraud , you are also either amateurish or pig headed or both
3/ Aside the blogs that night were mostly (17) about the FL & MI delegates being excluded , hence Dyno’s (not mine) words. Again incompetent research
4/ , FINNS said you blog all day & all night and that you should get a life. Someone else said you need a boyfriend. But now we find you not only do you blog all day & night but the rest of your time is spent sifting through thousands of blogs back to February 4 months ago ! , almost like someone every night miserably going through a rubbish bin , timewise.
5/ FINNS has many Parrots including you but now we have a shared Parrot
and he can name you as he’s an expert at Parrot blogers like you. Although a name with the last 3 letters ‘wit’ appeals as does the first 4 letter ‘frau’
What your problem is , other than those blatantly obvious above , is I exposed your intellectual deficiencies. I called Obama (correctly) a phony & said that the Obambot wing only of the Obama supporters (correctly) were dreamy people who did no research on him and that all foolishly bought the cubboard without looking inside (& still won’t check despite the Wright public warning)
Whereas whilst I bloged here strong support for Obama , I ALWAYS treated Obama as just another Pollie , with my political antenna tuned for inconsistences. When Obama did so , I did my research & the more I checked the bigger fraud I found he was, in so many areas. So like any objective intelligent person I ditched him & told all blogers here including you.So any pre ditching comments I made are before I found out his ‘message’ was a con
FINNS , Parrot naming rights (above) are yours my expert Amigo.
Oh, ouch, I wounded!
Ron, think about it, I have a good reason to be up late - what’s your?
ROTFLOL
Good Morning, it’s time to put the man from Showy River out of his misery and let him eat his own vomit.
1. On April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am, he wrote: [Salamat pagi, (good morning, in a lingo the kid can speak), bludgers one and all] - implying and big noting that he and the kid share the same lingo, whatever that was.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=840&cp=4#comment-143893
2. To which i replied with a compliment to the kid:
#362 - Kirribilli Removals Says: [Salamat pagi, (good morning, in a lingo the kid can speak)] The kid is “jago ngomong, tapi seperti Tong kosong nyaring bunyinya”. Selamat sore.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=840&cp=6#comment-144066
3. Now The man from Showy River said:
377 The Finnigans - Hang on: YOU ACCUSED ME!
But you will not provide any proof of your great vanquishing of me at Bahasa, which is incredibly
funny because I neither speak it, nor have ever claimed to! LOL
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=856&cp=4#comment-152266
4. Which is a response to my post where i wrote:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=856&cp=4#comment-152186
Please note, i never ACCUSED him that he speaks the language. I only accused him of big noting and
pretending.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=55wWiFi6BFo
Have a good day to all.
It appears Edwards is going to endorse Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/14/obama-to-make-major-announcement
P.S. Would that mean Obama gets Edwards pledged delegates?
Edwards’ PDs are entitled to make their own decision, but you’d have to thin k that there’s a fair chance they’ll break more for Barry than Hills
Edwards + Obama was 47% of the vote in Florida , vs 50% for Clinton
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
Could be some solution re: seating Michigan and Florida in the offing as well ?
End of the beginning , I think.
Now we get 6 months of why McCain is more electable than Obama
435
The Finnigans
Your fevered imagination at work early today I see FinnS! LOL
So recap: I make a jocular “g’day”, as in “bon jour”, but in Indonesian because Obama presumably speaks more than a few words of it.
You reply, with something in Indonesian which, and now you say that this somehow proves that I was showing off??????
Hang about, who was ’showing off’?
Your fevered imagination, should it continue, will warrant medical attention; it may be a serious condition.
439
Kevin
“Now we get 6 months of why McCain is more electable than Obama”
Oh, dear, I fear you may have something there! LOL
Edwards and Obama appearing together tonight in Michigan, it’s going to carried live on the U.S News shows: a pretty significant announcement.
A blow to Hillary, she was very actively courting John/Elizabeth Edwards for their endorsement! I’d presume the Clintons now will publicly denigrate Edwards, they did the same to Bill Richardson previously.
Kirribilli Removals: I’ll make a bold prediction, McCain is completely pulverised in November, the Republicans lose big in the house and the senate.
If that happens, I’ll get blind drunk!
Edwards, AG then?
Ah, politics is wonderful, attracts all kinds of people (and some seriously deranged spectators! LOL).
But Edwards was never going to endorse Hill:
“You can’t just trade corporate Republicans for corporate Democrats,” he told audiences frequently, an attack aimed at Mrs. Clinton.
Guess it was just a matter of keeping his powder dry.
Well, there goes the whoopeee moment of West Virginia.
(I wonder which stage of metamorphosis Hillary is at now, on her way to full Alien mother???)
Morning Bludgers,
Well Obama took his West Virginian lumps and the SDs applied their ministrations. His SD lead over Hillary is now 14 according to RCP and his total PD lead is now 153.
Meanwhile Obama’s national poll average lead over Hillary is 7.2 - a rise of +7 over the last week.
West Virginia? What West Virginia?
443
Progressive
YEEEEES!
And I’ll join ya!
I actually feel slightly sorry for McCain (only a teensy bit).
Bush did him over with thuggery in 2004, and now he’s climbed back up only to get run over by a wave of anti-Republicanism that’s like a freakin’ tsunami.
Ouch!
What bad timing!
I felt it late last year, that Obama was going to find the ‘change button’ to signal an end to the perpetual ‘fear button’ and the dreary politics of slime that Rove had engineered as the perpetual modus operandi.
We had our little moment of this with Rudd’s victory over Howard’s dreary government. Obama had the same thing written all over him, and he has not disappointed.
Exciting times ahead.
I think she has accepted her fate, she just commented that it would be a “terrible mistake” to vote McCain over Obama, and she’s recently made some conciliatory comments re: working for the eventual democratic nominee.
How that is reconciled with her other comments (paraphrased as poor white voters will prefer me etc) I don’t know, other than maybe she was just being as competetive as she knew how, and took it too far.
As Edwards endorses Obama, Hillary tells Wolf Blitzer is that the reason she wont quit is- THE VOTERS. THEY wont end this race, citing a survey that 64% of Dem voters want the race to continue. And, I thought it was all about Hillary’s EGO at this point. Damn those voters, it’s a shame she’s behind on every measure of those voters’ intentions, and she cant catch up. EGO
Great news! Live blog of the appearance here: http://www.michiganmessenger.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1259
EDWARDS:
I hope he is AG.
From the New York Times:
Updated | 6:37 p.m. GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina who bowed out of the presidential race in January, endorsed Senator Barack Obama at a rally here tonight.
Officials announced the news of Mr. Edwards’s endorsement shortly after Mr. Obama landed here late this afternoon. The campaign timed it to coincide with the start of the major evening newscasts, which would have otherwise focused on Senator Hillary Clinton’s landslide victory in West Virginia, which raised new questions about Mr. Obama’s strength with white working class voters.
….
Terry McAuliffe, Clinton campaign chairman, made the following statement today in response to Mr. Edwards’ endorsement:
“We respect John Edwards, but as the voters of West Virginia showed last night, this thing is far from over.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/edwards-to-endorse-obama/index.html?hp
Mornin’ All,
Oh, what jolly good news to wake up to! Spiffing!
Edwards endorses The Kid. Be back after soaking up the Sep punditry on it.
You little bewdy!!!
One step closer for The Kid, one step closer for “We The People”.
No way the GOPpers will win NC in Novenber after the this son of a “working family” made good has given this imprimatur.
Feel the History happen on your monitors, before your own eyes, in the comfort and privacy of your own home (or internet cafe, or where the hell ever on your port-a-PC)!!
Message to Terry McAuliffe: it was over weeks ago!
West Virginia means frigging zero in the greater scheme of things!
Obama/Edwards great together on the stump, I agree Edwards has probably got himself the Attorney General job at least in an Obama administration.
I’m just waiting for the inevitable attack from Hillary and her surrogates.
EC - didn’t Bush win NC last time, when Edwards was running for Veep???
Must have been given his two jetskis.
Indeed, Ferny, but Obby ain’t John Kerry then, is he? Been a bit of “closure” and “moving on” since then. Will need to take a closer look. A shot of good coffee and a splash of great news does tend to bring out the hip-shooter in me, though:)
Obama has already mobilised the black and college votes in a way that Kerry never could. Add Edwards and his union connections to the picture on the ground, and NC is well in play.
Love your optimism, EC. Hillary is certainly expressing her disappointment that Edwards has chosen The Black Prince over the Rightful Queen and it’s no secret that she was actively courting his endorsement.
His endorsement can only help Obama, but as an outsider looking in, I can’t see that Edwards has pulled too many votes, either in 2004 or in his campaign this time. The press is arguing that Edwards will help Obama connect with the blue collar vote. I’d like to see some evidence that Edwards has more pull with that demographic than Obama - but I don’t see it.
In response to Edwards’ endorsement, I believe he may instruct his 19 pledged delegates to cast their vote for Obama. As Robert Bollard says, they’re free to make their own decision, but I believe that more often than not they tend to go with their candidate’s instructions.