Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
1,725 Comments
As the first, I’ll offer my own toast: “Yes he can!”
KR, I dozed off earlier…must have been Turnbull’s budget-droning. I was going to say, the signs in the US are not good. Are you aware of the site http://www.businesscycle.com ? The site is run by ECRI, forecasters who claim a perfect record. They reckon they have never wrongly called a recession in the US. They are predicting a recession this year.
The SD tally is comin’ along sweetly, Catrina.
And maybe things are still crook in the finance sector:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a1epxg3i.6YM&refer=home
just perused the last page of the previous WV thread.
what a good read. sometimes PB excels….sometimes it doesn’t.
tomorrow…well who knows who could show up.
special shout out to EC for #1431
I agree, Harry…gives new meaning to bludging.
Obama +4 SDs for today so far. Here’s a thread to keep an eye on: http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/13/124114/647/831/514806
538’s prediction is Clinton by 39 points and 105,00 votes: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/west-virginia-preview-clinton-by-39.html
But after all what does it matter – its only 5 electoral college votes, surely with some of that audacity of hope Obama will make up these votes with very likely prospects such as North Carolina or Georgia or maybe even Texas.
Is this the beginning of the end for the false consciousness Comrade Bob Bollard?
ESJ – I wouldn’t get too cocky, given your supreme record as a tipster so far.
3
blindoptimist
yes, BO (good initials for an Obama supporter!), ECRI are the most respected outfit in the business, and they’ve been pointing this way for some time.
And in that Bloomberg article, you just know this isn’t going to end pretty. Inflation is on the move while they’re holding interest rates under water and pumping printed money into the banking system like there’s no tomorrow.
The ‘free market’ failed big time, and now the smartest guys in the room are desperately trying to bail it out while telling everyone that the system works just fine, just needs a little ‘help’.
Right!
11
Pancho
What record would that be, then? LOL
What the latest in terms of no. of pledged and SDs left, and what % of these Obama needs??
ESJ #10 If you want a Marxist explanation of what’s happening I’d go with Gramsci rather than Engels in this case:
“When the old world is dying and the new is yet to be born, many morbid symptoms prevail.”
PS: I ain’t no comrade of yours so please desist from flinging that appellation in my direction.
Obama- 1591.5 PDs, 283 SDs, total of 1874.5 with 150 needed for 2024.5
Clinton – 1425.5 PDs, 270.5 SDs, total of 1696 with 328.5 needed for 2024.5
Of course this end goal will probably change when MI and FL are sorted out, and in the short term if Childers wins in Mississippi today 2025 becomes the finish line again. For a while.
Mornin’ Bludgers,
The word for today is GRIM – and I don’t mean a fairy tale.
If you’re an Obama supporter then the polls are suggesting that Hillary’s win today will be a monumental pasting. GRIM.
Moreover it will put a spring in the step of the Hillary crowd who will spend the rest of the day and night crowing about how this proves the Kid is unelectable. GRIM.
On the other side, Obama’s SD lead over Hillary has extended overnight from 8 yesterday to 11 today. GRIM for RHC.
And Obama’s national average lead over Hillary has been clipped slightly overnight from 5.4 to 5.1.
Pancho and what am I alleged to have tipped? Examine the record there are some here who are quite the hedgers. You of course have been strident and up front in your support from the get go which I acknowledge.
Comrade Bob, I chuckled at your list the other night, an interesting response, of course I dont intend to defend every massacre and act of evil committed in history which is obviously designed to give you the retort that neither should you for communism but the essential point is under capitalism you might get dictators, famines etc whereas under communism you always get dictators and famines, which is why Kronstadt is a sore point no doubt – it proves Marxism only runs on dictatorship but is the original sin Kronstadt or the shutting down of the Constituent Assembly by old V.I.L?
Old Kirri – Keep on smiling old son!
So Hillary needs 69% of remaining delegates to reach 2025 and Obama needs 31%. Damn that maths
It’s interesting to note that back on 5 Feb the GOP ran a state convention in WV to elect 18 delegates to the National Convention. Today’s primary will elect a further 9. Back in February, the results were:
Huckabee 567 52% 18
Romney 521 47% 0
McCain 12 1% 0
Paul 0 0% 0
It will be interesting to see if the ‘Anyone But McCain’ vote is higher today than the recent averages of 25%.
CNN has just called WV for Clinton
FG – That is interesting. And it would not help Clinton’s narrative spin if they end up voting for 2 non-candidates in that odd part of the world.
How brave of them…
18
Edward StJohn
Don’t worry about that (not-so-fast) Eddy, every time I see another Bludger put you in your place I’m smiling, even more than usual.
So CNN hasn’t bothered to wait for any actual votes. Why didn’t they call it last week? The count was 0 – 0 then too.
Edwards is still on the ballot in WV – could be an interesting complication.
I’m going to back ESJ on this one. I can’t recall him posting an incorrect prediction. He may have been wishful, possibly even misguided, in some of his support for the Rodent, but he never said Howie would win.
I’m reading a novel about Charlemagne fighting the Moors by Calvino. The knights on either side can’t speak each other’s language. This is a problem because, when they clash, they abuse each other. The gravity of the insult hurled determines how much damage they need to inflict on the other side to restore their pride. So the solution is to have translators who get called over to the two fighting knights to interpret for them, so they know whether to kill each other or just wound. Somehow, it reminded me of Pollbludger.
KR, I really hope you’re wrong, but in my less optimistic moments think you’re dead right….
Diogenes, I realise that there is much stirring in the chap’s posts, but I do recall early (but not necessarily ongoing) tips for both Howie and Hillary. But I do like the parable.
“Mountain Momma, Take Me Home” LOL
With exit polls showing a two thirds majority in favour of the gas tax holiday, you kind of get a feel for the education level of West Virginia, eh?
Plunkin’ for Hillary!
Bread and circuses KR. They go down a treat with the masses in yesterday’s Rome and today’s West Virginia
So Hillary’s going on, (yeeeha!), but what does she want? She knows she cannot win this nomination without divine intervention,(or a klansman’s aim), so what will she be bargaining for?
Anyone who thinks she doesn’t know she’s finished hasn’t been listening to her stump speeches closely. Yesterday she was telling the nice folks of WV that no matter who the nominee was, they’d be all coming together to beat the Republicans in November. She’s been putting out these signals lately, and it lets everyone know she’s in a postion to bring Obama support. She’ll bargain with it, for sure.
But the question remains, what does she want? (Apart from her $20m hole filled!)
She wants to raise enough money for the campaign to pay back her loans. The moment she pulls out the campaign isn’t allowed to raise money.
I know exit polls are already out, but stuff the margin; I’m prediction 19 delegates to HRC, 9 to BHO for a net gain of 10 pledged delegates.
I’m basing this on three Congressional Districts each with 6 delegates. It’s unlikely that HRC will win these districts 5-1 (75% of the vote to hit that), but more likely she’ll get them all 4-2 (somewhere between 59% and 75%). The 10 At-Large delegates and PLEO will probably split either 6-4 or 7-3 (I lean towards 7-3) giving my delegate prediction.
So given the current delegate gaps, I reckon it’ll be a net result of no positive change for HRC after today and tomorrow’s superdelegate announcements.
The trouble with that strategy is that it costs more to contest these primaries than she is receiving in donations. So…the longer she stays in, the deeper her hole becomes.
35
Ferny Grover
They spent chicken sh!t in WV, coz they didn’t have to, and besides, the media is much cheaper there.
So she’ll go on national TV and rattle the tin again, coz you know, the mountain momma is comin’ back home, and she’ll get a fresh flood of sucker’s money.
But beyond this game, what does she want? She’s got bargaining power to either bring her weight behind Obama or take her bat and ball and go home.
Guess we’ll see soon enough.
Interesting poll from Rasmussen.
The Repugs are seriously on the nose. The Dems more trusted for the economy, government ethics and corruption, national security and the War of Terror.
BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security. And he says he doesn’t know much about the economy.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/trust_on_issues/trust_on_issues
Why no numbers yet? Perhaps the good folk of WV keep losing count.
36 KR
There’s been virtually no speculation coming from the Hillary camp that she’s interested in VP (most of that speculation has come from the press). So what else? Attorney-General? Ambassador to UK? Nah…higher profile – Sec of State?
One of her camp was saying yesterday that they expect Obama to tank against McCain and Hillary will be lining up again in 2012 where she is ‘certain’ to be nominated.
Will they ever learn?
Here they come. WP may be more interesting than CNN to follow – they are tracking the Edwards numbers as well: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/wv/?jump=d
Very first results are in and Edwards is receiving 8%. As I suspected he may split some of that there Hillbilly cracker vote, thereby blunting the Clinton Tsunami and stuffing up her “come-back” spin.
Barack is winning Randolph County 53/41. It wont last so savour the moment.
37
Diogenes
Ah, the national amnesia! I’m sure Obama will recover their memory for them about which side McCain bats for! LOL
If the Repuglies think they’re going to be running a tough campaign on Obi’s ass, they can expect incoming, ballistic.
More interesting today will be the special election for a congressional seat in Mississippi. The Democrats have a real chance of taking another seat off the Republicans.
Forget West Virginia: a Hillary win means zero, it won’t change the overall picture.
41
Robert Bollard
Did ya know, Robert, that ‘is daddy worked in a mill?
Yep, it’s all identity politics and Edwards had a lock on the cracker vote in them thar parts.
44
Progressive
yeah, didn’t Childers miss a majority by a couple of hundred votes first time around?
Apparently both the RNC and DNC have been spending mega-bucks on this vote!
Which means the Repugs are sh!tting themselves it will be three in a row, and the grim reaper will be sharpenin’ his scythe for the fall.
I didn’t know Edwards was still on the ballot in WV.
Obama would be well advised to get Edwards on board his campaign, in some capacity, he’d be a lot of use campaigning for the Democrats in states like West Virginia, and Edwards would make an ideal Attorney General.
Kirribilli Removals: Yes mate, you’re correct! Childers nearly got over 50% on the first vote, there were two other Democrats in the field that day, so if the combined Democrat vote goes to him, he beats the Republican bloke!
Republicans this year have already lost supposedly safe seats in Illinois and Louisiana, a loss in supposedly very red state Mississippi would tend to suggest they’ll get their arses kicked well and truly in November.
We don’t talk about Edwards much here but his early withdrawal after SC was a huge boost for Obama. Obama really scored the trifecta in SC. He got a big win on PDs, Edwards pulled out and the “block” vote shifted to him 90% after being 60%. And he has Bill to thank for it.
Results for the MS-01 special election starting to come in at
http://www.swingstateproject.com/
Childers currently up 57-43, but they are saying that there is a huge turnout in DeSoto County, a strong Repub area that Davis won 81-17 on April 22.
The local WV pro-Clinton moron politician who said, ‘We can win this thing 80:20. No! 90:10!’, must have pushed Clinton staffers even closer to suicide than they already were.
Once those kind of expectations get out there, a real-life count of votes (currently 62:30 on 2%, but will probably get a bit better for HRC as it goes) is always going to be a disappointment rather than a triumph.
The real news of the day is: No withdrawal. No retreat. No surrender. And how is that ‘draft John Kerry as compromise candidate’ campaign going, anyhoo?
Which America is he in ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws
KR #45
Through the mansions of fear
Through the mansions of pain
I watched my Daddy walk to the mill in the rain
And now I’m a corporate lawyer you see
My Daddy might win me the odd primary
(With apologies to Bruce Springsteen)
Robert, I get the sense that Clinton won’t try the ‘I’m coming back’ line today. I think she understands it will just annoy the bigwigs out there who are gently trying to turn everybodys focus to the general election and don’t need her implying that she will prolong the battle any further than it needs to be.
I get the feeling that she just wants to play it out, and throw in the towel either on May 20 or June 3 – and would prefer to do it before Dean and Pelosi step in with their public humiliating ‘game over’ endorsements. Which they might be tempted to do if she tries to push the rhetoric too far.
I imagine the Dems would prefer, in order of preference, for the battle to end:
1. With Hillary conceding
2. Superdelegates ending it after June 3
3. Superdelegates ending it before she concedes
4. The battle ending with a convention vote.
That would be their preference anyway.
WV is one area where the ‘cultural politics’ explanation for the Republican rise has something to it, Bush carried counties that voted for Mondale in 1984. Still Califronia has many more votes than WV and cultural politics has made it safe Democrat. Pragmatically it is a worthwhile swap. Still would you want a Democratic party without the working class?
Washington Post is calling WV for Huckabee
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/wv/?jump=d
Max,
I reckon that’s just a graphic bug. The listing of candidates is different at the bottom of the page to that at the top (when showing the Republican results).
GR: Interesting points. However, even though BO ain’t the working class candidate, if he wins in November it will be in part because he wins enough of the working class vote. And how much is enough?
All of the bangin’ on about whites, blacks, ‘hard-working’ (-class) Americans, those without college degrees, ‘elites’ etc, can become a demographers’ game and obscure the game: you have to win more than 50% of the vote in enough states to have a majority of convention delegates. How you patch them together it is up to you. So far he’s shown the ability to patch ‘em together okay.
For example, he’ll win Oregon handily which has a negligible black population. While it ain’t WV, I also don’t think it’s because OR is a state comprised entirely of latte-sipping elites, as the cruder stereotypes would have it.
Al at 34
I’m thinking a delegate advantage of 10-12 for Clinton from WV.
No Bug – it is called for Huckabee cos he already has 18 WV delegates from the last round. Hence he is already the winner there with only 9 more up for grabs.
Al,
The Republican WV convention was actually held in February – Huckabee unsurprisingly won pretty easily, and was consequently awarded 18 delegates. Only 9 delegates are awarded today, so he has already ‘won’ the state.
I was mucking about before. Need something to keep me amused
Ahh, that makes sense then Pancho. McCain will pick up the 9 from today although. Interesting to see Romney with 5% and Guiliani with another 3%. That’s 25% of Republican voters today voting against McCain, and 20% aren’t even voting for a candidate in the race.
Lowndes coming in for MS-01 Special Election. Davis won it 58-41 on April 22, but so far breaking 59-41 to Childers this time. Good signs for Childers. Childers up 53-47 at the moment with 153/462 precincts counted.
The victory speech in WV is now done and dusted:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/13/watching-west-virginia/
The precis? “Even though I know I can’t win, I’m going to keep going, simply because I’ve come this far.”
The irony? The message in her speech was ‘every vote must be counted, everyone must have their say’ before any conclusions are reached about the Democratic nominee. She delivered that victory speech with a big 12% of the vote in WV counted. The 10 o’clock news won’t wait forever, you know.
SimonH,
I love how you guys love democracy so much, you just want it to stop.
“8:17 PM. In its polite, if somewhat perfunctory tone as well as in its substance, this really really sounds like a speech made by a woman with her eyes on the Vice Presidency.”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/clinton-wins-west-virginia.html
GG @ 65:
1. ‘You guys’? Is there some conspiracy I’m a part of, that even I’m not aware of?
2. I’ve already expressed my view that I don’t want it to stop, now that we’re just getting to the funny/pathetic/bathetic bit. This is surely more entertaining that November can be.
3. I hope you’re sending a stern letter to the Edwards, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich and Richardson camps protesting at their ugly and unDemocratic decision to withdraw from the race, merely because they had inadequate funds, inadequate support and no chance of winning the nomination. Why won’t they let the people have their say?
Clinton logic:
This race must continue because every state must vote and every vote must count. Democracy is paramount. The people must speak.
But after that
The Party must trash the result of the peoples votes and give the nomination to me me me.
The public’s vote means everything
The public’s vote means nothing
The Clinton camp spent like drunken sailors in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana in a last grasp at winning the nomination. It failed.
They spent money they didn’t have. Now the campaign has a debt of $20Million of which $11Million is the Clintons.
EVERYTHING they do now is aimed at getting as much of that back as possible.
Matt Stoller looks over some recent polling by The Washington Post (sample size 1,122) and finds Six Signs Democrats are Going to Romp.
No. 6 is interesting.
The question and results in the poll:
Type, Comfortable, Uncomfortable
A Woman President, 84, 16
An African-American President, 88, 12
A new 72 year old President, 60, 39
People make their own calls about staying in a race or withdrawing. That is their choice. You know, democracy in action.
I am delighted that Hillary will continue all the way to the convention and push Obama to win the nomination on the floor of the convention. One thing for sure, Obama has missed every opportunity to take Hillary out. The record number of participants in the Democratic Election process is a good thing not an inconvenience.
Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.
Why don’t you just enjoy the excitement of the Democratic process instead of reveliing in the too easy negativity of the haughty cynic?
GG – When was the last time the Dems had a black candidate?
Interesting differences emerging between the Clinton Campaign and Obama Campaign websites.
The first thing you get on the Clinton site is a request for money, and once you click past that to get to the actual campaign site – a good third of the screen is taken up with requests for a donation to keep the fight going. Over on the Obama site the top item in the roiling lost of topics is a link to the Red Cross and a call to the American public to help out disaster victims. Here we are still in a primary race and Obama is stepping up and showing national leadership and putting his internet machine into play for the Red Cross.
This is a really interesting stat.
One would assume that this is caused by an unusually long primary season yes? Normally, with the nomination tied up by now, wouldn’t a state such as West Virginia (which votes late in the primary season) usually only have one person to vote for?
Of course, this a incorrect if this isn’t an ‘unusually long’ nomination process. I’m not sure either way (given i know very little about the history of the process).
Hillary is no longer campaigning for the Presidency of the USA.
She is simply revenue raising and horse trading.
Chris Matthews:
“It’s almost like she’s the Al Sharpton of white people.”
Or more importantly, when was the last time the Democratic primary campaign wasn’t a “dead rubber” by the time WV came around?
We’re up to 2025 as the delegates to win now. Childers has been declared the winner in MS-01, making the Congressional District blue for the first time since 1995.
Things are really looking ugly for the GOP in November. Three big special election losses now.
Pancho,
Probably Jesse Jackson?
So?
Al @ 77,
Not sure whether this is the last time, but I know it was definitely important when JFK won the Dem nomination in 1960.
Leading up to the 2000 and 2004 election the accepted spread of core supporters was:
Democrats 44%
Republicans 43%
now the core support stands at:
Democrats 51%
Republicans 38%
The GOP is in a world of hurt.
Why all this Hillary hatred? Obama would make a better president but either would be a huge improvement on Bush, Hillary has much support but Obama has slightly more. Any serious presidential candidate has to be ruthless, ambitious and have a huge ego.
MS-1 Childers is pretty conservative he would make Hillary look like ultra-left.
I couldn’t see this posted anywhere else, but
http://www.nbc4i.com/midwest/cmh/politics.apx.-content-articles-CMH-2008-05-13-0029.html
GG – sorry, I meant candidate for President, as in nominee. My garble. My badly made point is that history is being made on one front, so I see no reason for it to be pushed on others. But I think the WV as ‘rubber stamp’ argument is more salient.
Re Childers – woohoo! I guess those in the deep south are really terrified by that liberal Obama.
GG @ 77: I am enjoying the process. Enormously. Even though it now has an appeal that I wouldn’t quite call “excitement”. You enjoy your way, and I’ll enjoy my way: that’s democracy in action!
We wouldn’t want any of the too-easy negativity of the haughty critic creeping in here, would we? Whatever wise person said way back in March that “The only roaring around here is from the Obama Lambs and Ding Dongs as they relentlessly try to convince themselves and each other that Hillary is finsihed [sic]“, they certainly weren’t haughty or negative.
Oh, by the way, nice recycling of a key Hillary talking-point. Only you got it wrong: the official talking-point is that no Democratic candidate has won the Presidential election without carrying WV since 1916. One small problem with the thesis that doesn’t require much delving into ancient history: if Gore had won (or for the pedants, been officially ruled to have won) Florida in 2000, and Kerry had won Ohio in 2004, WV would have been relevant to the result how exactly?
Looking ahead ….
With WV done and dusted Obama will pick up around 8 of the states pledged delegates, putting him just 25 pledged delegates away from the holding the majority. We have Kentucky and Oregon in one week – and these two states represent 5x anything the West Virgina can offer in terms of delegate numbers and its here that Obama puts the final lock on the nomination. He should pick up more than 42 pledged delegates, placing him as undisputed winner of the pledged delegate race. He currently needs about 150 delegates to take the nomination by the numbers and by this time next week that will be down to 100 just from pledged delegates from today and next week.
I expect super delegates to continue endorsements of Obama over the coming week, and in the process a number of defections. By the end of next week I’m guessing Obama will be about 70 delegates away from clinching the deal. What will be interesting to watch is how the end-game plays out. Obama can pick up another 30 odd pledged delegates in Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico – which means that he really only needs 40 super delegates to close the deal.
GG @ 71
“Oh, and the last time the Dem candidate won the Presidency without winning West Virginia in the Primary was 1916.”
While this statement is undoubtedly true, as you are always correct, it really is just an example of post hoc data trawling by Hillary to find any straw to cling to. If you look at data from enough angles and permutations, you can always find something to fit your theory.
Panch,
A real cynic might argue that given the possibility/likelihood of a Democratic victory at the end of the year, why is the party indulging in a social engineering experiment by having to choose between a black candidate and a woman? Why not stick with a tried and true (white rich guy) candidate?
History doesn’t run to a timetable.
88 GG
I belive that cynic’s name is Adam and the candidate is Gore!
GG – true. But maybe the groundswell that puts the party in a strong position is the same force that has offered a black guy and a woman. Intra-party reform is overdue and Washington money not holding all the cards and being able to direct things as it has seems promising from here.
Geoff @ 82: A fair point, I think, to call ixnay on whatever Hillary-hatred might be around. Completely true that Obama does have a big streak of ruthlessness, ambition and ego in him– or he would never have got to where he is.
I think the Hillary-baiting is in part a reaction (or over-reaction) to the long-time writings of a small group of hardcore Hillary-supporters/ Obama-loathers on the site, for whom anything which might be viewed as an assertion of fact in another forum (e.g. “Hillary can’t win”) qualifies the writer as an ‘Obamabot’ who not only politically supports Obama, but also believes that their guy can do no wrong and is in cahoots with all Obama supporters. (See GG’s “you guys” reference at #65.)
As is appropriate for a psephological website, I try to keep my contributions to assessing matters of the ballot-box. My opinions about who, e.g., has the better healthcare policy, aren’t terribly relevant; my opinion about whose healthcare policy will fly better with the voters, may be. In truth, there aren’t clear lines and personal political persuasion will often creep in to some extent; but I do think there are dozens of better-suited websites if people want a straight-up political debate. The kind of ‘HRC is a lying cow’, ‘Obama is a no-policies demagogue’ debate that things occasionally descend into, adds nothing to what PB is here to do.
SimonH,
My point then and my point now is that the contest is still ongoing. If you go back further, you will probably find even earlier examples of PBers declaring the race completed. And all manner of putrid anti Hillary comments are a feature of this blog. That I use acerbic bouquets of banter to occaissionally pierce the Obama supporters’ hubrication is neither here nor there.
It’s mostly colour Simon! Granted some colours are annoying…a little more from WP if you’ll indulge me:
“Customer: “That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not half an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it being tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk.”
Pet-shop owner: “Well, he’s, he’s, ah, probably pining for the fiords.”
2:57 p.m., Yeager Airport, Charleston, W.Va.: A steep descent brings Clinton’s plane to Charleston’s hilltop airport. After an appropriate wait, she steps from the plane and pretends to wave to a crowd of supporters; in fact, she is waving to 10 photographers underneath the airplane’s wing. She pretends to spot an old friend in the crowd, points and gives another wave; in fact, she was waving at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/13/AR2008051302862.html?hpid=topnews
Ixnay and amscray were used widely in “The Three Stooges” shorts
http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/ixnay
Apt SimonH.
Hillary Clinton, declaring “this race isn’t over yet,” West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary. Any non partisan psephologist knows these Democrats are a pre condition to win POTUS
71% Count , Hillary 65% to Obama 28% is decisive Once there are no black voters (who have always voted 80% Democrat historically) , Hillary’s advantages over Obama become obvious & as her greater electability
93 Pancho
classic stuff
I’ve no doubt these types of things happen all the time, and with all candidates, but they do show how narrow the view of the MSM really is, and how their relevance is rapidly eroded as it’s power is misappropriated on a daily basis.
That modern politics panders to this charade is even more telling.
95
Ron Says: “West Virginia shows the majority of Democrat voters favour Hillary.”
Huh? Did you just like…miss the last 12 weeks or something?
A nice page here I think. It shows state by state results of presidential elections 1972-2004 and 2008 Democratic nomination results in one concise table.
http://uspolitics.about.com/od/2008elections/l/bl_results_president_1972_2004.htm
Anyhoo, enough of the navel gazing and on with why we’re here:
66-27 to HRC in WV with 76% of booths reporting. No reason to think those proportions will change significantly. (HRC trending upwards and O downwards from something like 60-31 in very early counting, but not enough votes left to provide significantly more bounce.) While 2 counties haven’t yet reported any results, safe to say that HRC will win every single county. In Jefferson County, a true geographic outlier hung out on the far NE-rn tip of the state, she fell over the line 49:46 in by far the closest contest.
McCain only just fell over the prestigious 75% mark, against effectively no opposition. (I know that Ron Paul has never pulled out, but you might as well when you finish 3rd in a 2-horse race and get half the vote of a non-contestant.) Could someone who could be bothered more than me, say whether an unopposed candidate has ever done this poorly in GOP primaries before, this deep into the calendar? It’s not just the fact that it’s May– it’s also that his last real opposition dropped out months ago.
GG @ 92: If you mean the contest is ongoing merely because one candidate has not formally conceded: a football match is still ongoing if one side is up by 5 goals 20 minutes into the last quarter; but commentators who say “it’s all over” are employing a little artistic license based on their judgment that in the time available, it is not realistic for the opposition to make up the deficit. Who but a too-easily-negative pedant would complain that they were technically wrong?
And others make “putrid… comments”. You make “acerbic bouquets of banter”.
I think you just rested your own case, dude.
I don’t think it matter who wins the Repugs are shot.
Old Kirri,
The difference between you and I sir, is that I act out of love and you act out of hate.
Hatred of Howard, Hatred of Bush, Hatred of Clinton, Hatred of Gordon Brown. etc Hatred of anyone who disagrees with your myopic world view. If there is any doubt one only need read your disparaging comments about Ron and others on this blog.
I am a realist, but a realist imbued with a love of our shared common humanity. We are all flawed vessels but still beautiful at the same time.
Go in peace,
EStJ
Here is the evidance:
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/washington/AP-State-Primaries-Rdp.html?_r=1&ref=politics&oref=slogin
They were routed in Mississippi. If anyone was unsure of how the election was going to go this provides the evidence. That makes it a hat trick of very safe Repug seats that the Democrates have one. This was the safest and most redneck of them all. It looks like the Confederates will finally loose the war.
Triton 98
That site demonstrates what I referring to about with data trawling. Many statements about political history are meaningless.
There are five states that have had primaries so far where the winning party always won that state. They are Louisiana, Tennesse, Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas. HRC won 3 and BHO won two. Either could get up after they won the primary in their respective states and say (for eg) “I won Louisiana by 15%. The voters have shown that I am the best person to win Louisiana for the Democrat Party in the general election. And history shows us that if you win Louisiana, you win the White House!”
When Ron is backing Hillary Clinton, I know she’s in even more trouble!
A stunning victory for the Democrats tonight in Mississippi! Unless things drastically change in the next 6 months, the Republicans are headed for meltdown in November.
And there is probably going to be another by election, this time in a seat that is marginal. Due to a Republican being caught having a child with his girlfriend. The Repugs will be forced to spend even more money the haven’t got. Nothing like a moralist being caught with his pants down! Hee Hee Hee!
The longest political suicide note ever written, in black dripping ink, by the Democrats. If Obama is not a political coward, he would have come and fought like hell in WV because WV has the demographic that he needs to win over as in November.
Instead, he ran away and got trashed by someone who is supposed to be dead and buried. So the lame excuse now is that “Oh, we didn’t campaign in WV”. And for someone who is dead and buried, the EVs is still looking very stiffed.
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
May 13 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 280 McCain 241 Ties 17
May 13 – Electoral Votes: Obama 237 McCain 290 Ties 11
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
Chris B, reality check for you: the Democratic candidate who won the special election in Mississippi is pro-life, supporter of home schooling, has an A+ rating from the gun lobby and is an economic conservative. Put simply, he is well to the right of about 90% of the Democrats in Congress and arguably even further to the right of McCain.
The Republicans are going to cop a hiding in the Senate (they’ll lose at least 4) and an even bigger hiding in the House. But to suggest its “game over” for McCain is laughable. Have a look at the polls lately? (and yes I have allowed for all the usual caveats regarding opinion polls, not least of all in a country like the US). How do you explain McCain’s strong polling in a number of states that have not voted GOP since 1988? The GOP attack on race and experience hasn’t even started. Whatever they come up with will make those Willie Horton ads look like being slapped across the face with a wet piece of lettuce
Americans think their nation is on the wrong track and want change. But they don’t want a Mondale, McGovern or even a Kerry as POTUS. That’s what the Democrats never seem to be able to get into their thick heads.
This election is well and truly up for grabs and if Barack prevails (which, incidentally, would not disappoint me in the slightest) it will be by a 2 or 3 percent margin max.
ChrisB @ 103:
Sorry, but I think that’s a rather stupid way to describe an election result in Mississippi in 2008.
Superdelegate update …
DNC Awais Khaleel (WI) and DNC Lauren Wolfe (MI) endorse Obama.
The DCW website is showing the count at 284/270 advantage Obama (but I think they have a temporary glitch and numbers should actually be 285/270). Also, the news from Chris B at 103 shift the number of delegates required to win the nomination by 0.5 to 2025.
102
Edward StJohn
Sorry?
You’re coming on all saintly and it does not compute.
We all know your type Eddy, passive aggresive and a serial abuser.
This is the holier than thou ‘passive’ side.
Catrina summed you up well I thought.
Four letters, starts with ‘d’ ends with ‘k’
Remember, I’m the ‘plagiarist’ you went at with snide comments and greasy innuendo? And then pulled the stunt that I’d called you a sexual deviant, when I had not.
So don’t come the raw prawn with me Eddy.
You have not changed, not even one of your spots.
109
Callum
I think it’s called poetic licence Callum, better ask to see it!
But it is a crushing blow to the Repuglies, as they spent lots of dough and even sent Darth Vader (aka Cheney) down there.
That worked, huh?
KR @ 112.
My problem with that sort of rhetoric is that it evidences a sort of moral triumphalism that does the progressive side of politics no favours with the general electorate.
Hillary 167,554 votes Obama 71,925
WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates despite the uninformed opinion here and a State strong in manufacture.
The manufacturing employment base is why the State represents a traditional American worker and therefore why it mostly votes Democrat.
Having the edication base listed above and the manufacturing employment mix , naturally its people will not vote for an “elitist Liberal” like Obama whether he is black or white.
Such typical “labor voters” will vote for a centre labor type person like Hillary offering real solutions not dreamy drivel unrelated to their lives.
The 67% vote for Hillary proves this despite the racism comments of some Obamabots and why the SD’s should dismiss Obama
108 Chris from Edgecliff Reality check for you. This has seat has never been won by a Democrat. As I said, its a redneck seat, its the third very safe seat the Democrats have one. The polls will change once the election proper starts. Here are the issues that will win the election in a landslide. Not completely in order.
1. Its the economy stupid (Bill Clinton). A recession to be precise.
2. The Iraq war.
3. Hurricane Katrina
4. The Repugs a flat broke.
5. The Democrats are filthy rich.
6. The massive talent on the Democrats side. Barrack. Hillary. Bill and Al Gore.
7. The Democrats have mastered the Internet The Repugs haven’t.
8. The Dumbest/most unpopular president ever.
Shall I go on?
Re. my comment at 110 – the DCW numbers do not include Lauren because she is representing MI (and we all know that for the moment MI doesn’t count). As such – the DCW count is correct and the Obama lead on super delegates is 13.5 (or 20.5 after adding the Pelosi factor).
Obama: 290 (284+6)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
109 Callum. Then you don’t understand American politics.
He who celebrates in May cries in November.
The Confenderates still don’t think they lost the war. I am refering to the November election where the Repugs may lose
118 Edward StJohn. Want to put some money on that? I should get very good odds.
119 Chris B Got interupted and forgot to finish.
Repugs may lose the abilty to filibuster. Thus huge changes can finally be made in the USA.
“WV boasts a population with high education rates in high school graduation rates”
Are sure about that ron/Ron?
‘All this brings me to Hillary Clinton’s proud assertion that she is the candidate of the uneducated white worker. It is of course, precisely why she’s likely to win the West Virginia primary today by a lopsided 75:25 or maybe a 60:40 margin. One news program I watched about the West Virginia primary yesterday included an interview with a Clinton supporter, in that state, an older woman who said she couldn’t vote for Obama “because he’s a Muslim.” The reporter responded, “Well, for the record, you know he says he’s a Christian.” The woman replied, “Well I don’t believe him.” In West Virginia, one in four residents doesn’t have a high school diploma. That compares to one in five nationally. I’m guessing this woman was one of that one in four. Only one in seven West Virginians holds a bachelor’s degree, compared with one in four nationally.’
http://www.buzzflash.com/articles/lindorff/096
Personally i think Obama’s weakness amoungst the white working class is clearly exadurated. The fact about most of those “OLDER” White voters that vote Hillary, is that half of them are female. Most of them prefer Hillary because she is a woman. I have no problem with this but it is a shame that when Obama’s performace against Hillary, with white voters is compaired, the numbers are not put in that context.
Actually Chris B, Jamie Lloyd Whitten held the district for the Democratic Party from 1941 to 1993 and is the longest serving US Representative ever.
109 Callum To put you in the picture. Between the 1930’s and now the Republicans and the Democrats switched sides. The Ku Klux Klan, which had/has connections with the Confederate army and the Southern Baptists, used to assasinate Republicans on a regular basis. Now they belong to the Republican party, and laws to do with civil liberties have not been able to be passed because of the conservative south. Among many other issues.
124 Al According to an article I read on the Votemaster (I think), it was never held by the Repugs.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
Something interesting in the exit polls is that 62% of the poll respondents think that Clinton is going to win in November. Of the poll respondents that voted for Clinton, 90% of Clinton voters think that Clinton is going to win the nomination.
One could conclude that voters in WV have difficulty with basic arithmetic.
I may stand to be corrected. But I think thats where I read it.
In fact I am sure because he gave it an R10+ rating. Which means its extremely safe. The other two seats the Democrats won were R7+. One of them had a swing of 25%.
ChrisB,
I am interested only in debate and discussion not vulgar contests about money.
Kirri
I am sorry that you feel so angry! Hope tomorrow is a better day for you!
If only the seat of Gippsland would swing 25%
130 Edward StJohn Why on earth do you think I am angry? All I am doing is stating fact.
I dont think you are angry Chris B, i was referring to poor old Kirri his post at 111 was indicative of unresolved anger.
Sorry I misread that I did’t see Kirri.
ESJ, in the words of the late, great David McComb, you have an “aphorism for every occasion”
Chris B, for sheer amusement value, please indulge me a prediction for November in terms of percentage and electoral college. If you want to take a crash course in presidential politics first, then by all means.
Also, I may stand corrected, but I think you’ll find that the seat won by the Democrats tonight was previously held up until 1994 when it was lost in the Newt-slide
As for Democratic filibuster-proof majorities, simply having the numbers in not enough. I can think of at least 5 Democrat Senators who are more conservative than some of their Republican colleagues – I’m thinking along the lines of Tester, Webb, Casey, Johnson and Lieberman, the self-proclaimed “Independent Democrat”. The fact is the current Senate is quite possibly the most conservative ever – dividing Senators into Republicans and Democrats is very artificial I’m afraid
Myself @ 113 re KR @ 112.
Just to clarify, I meant Chris B’s rhetoric, not your own KR. I generally find your commentary to be good natured.
127
Catrina
Unlike the butterfly farmers of Pollbludgerdom, eh?
before people think i am picking fights, my ‘aphorism for every occasion’ comment was in reference to esj @ 118
135 Chris from Edgecliff Spot on with the fillibuster proof. The only time that has ever happened in the mid sixties, Democrats crossed the floor to block civil rights issues.
I can’t find where I read it. It doesn’t matter. What matters is that it was an R+10
Repug seat, here is a bit of the history.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
136 Callum Can you expalin why fact is rhetoric?
No problems Callum, no confusion this end.
(Except that I’m doing a re-instal on one computer and using another! LOL)
140 Spell check. explain.
Chris from E re 135
But you would have to concede it appears to be a very large wave building against the Republicans?
It really is Obama’s to lose – assuming he does the sane thing and tacks right when he is confirmed as the nominee even with the racism factor it will be hard to take him down as a liberal in the current climate?
136 Callum To help your confusion.
Fact
A thing that has actually happened or that is really true.
Rhetoric
Artificial eloquence; language that is showy and elaborate but largely empty of clear ideas or sincere emotion.
If you read your history you will find I am quoting fact.
Arvo Bludgers,
leanin’ on yer bloody picks and shovels again eh and only a ton or so’s comments to date about this Meme Altering victory for Senator Clinton.
Wouldn’t work in an iron lung, you lot!
Tues May 13:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=A9G_RnjzXipIWSQAcRkDwLAF
“Clinton is now an “understudy candidate,” waiting in the wings to see if Obama catches the flu.”
Or more likely, hoping beyond hype that The Kid cops a swiftboat amidships or a shiv between the ribs in a Beltway backstreet at midnight.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191300/
Apart from her age, Hillary has many of the “qualities” of another famous American “understudy” by the name of Eve Harrington. Obi will need to have his back watched. Closely.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All_About_Eve
Interestingly, for the first time this campaign, CBet appear to have not closed their books while the voters of WV were exercising their democratic right. And there has been bubkes change in their market since yesterday. Gee whiz, wonder what this zippo board odds shift all means? It’s making my brain hurt. Perhaps the market is trying to communicate something. Do you have a take on this at all, Ron?
The Kid……………1.75
McBombster…….2.75
Brutusina…………6.00, but if you want to punt her, Dyno can recommend far juicier odds elsewhere:)
Thanx, Harry at 6.
The Dana Milbank WaPo piece at 93 gets my nod for link du jour so far, Pancho. Lovely to see the literary jetsom of Mark Twain still afloat on the mighty MSM.
Wonderfully wicked and truly vicious, Milbank is The Nasty American writ large.
Edgecliff Chris, are you still feeling confident about you wager on Alaska?
143 Edward StJohn What did I miss? That’s what I have been saying all along.
Oddly, one of the best articles I’ve read in a while about the next 6 months in Obama strategy, was written by a sports business writer:
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=09c585ec-fda3-4138-83ad-7ea97fc5219a
Hey, I guess he understands the economics of horse-flesh, and so maybe human flesh ain’t that different? HRC supporters will complain about the opening paras which imply that the media have jumped to her various changes in tactical posture as her position got more desperate.
But the fundamental point he makes is sound: Obama has already gathered a large block of votes with an anomalous coalition of blacks, left-wing whites, anti-war voters of all political persuasions and first-time voters (esp the young).
Will his campaign try to do the very difficult and bring socially conservative rural whites and Hispanics into his fold; or will he target the difficult-but-winnable states mentioned in the article, and concede that states dominated by the above demographics (inc Florida), are beyond him?
The advantage he has over Kerry is that he can win places where Kerry was always a dead duck, while there has been little or no talk of him losing any heartland seats that Gore/Kerry carried by any margin.
Obama may well be the right candidate for the times. If he can’t win some 2004 losing states, McCain has too little margin for error. Trying to protect states as diverse as Colarado, Iowa, Virginia, Tennessee, New Mexico, Montana and the Carolinas as well as the established battleground of Ohio, all of which Obama has the resources to go after, leaves little time and cash for trying to get back some 2004 Kerry states like Wisconsin or a big prize like Michigan or Pennsylvania. While North and South Dakota are miniscule and unlikely prizes, the idea that a Repub candidate would have to devote resources to protecting them, is almost surreal. And (barring campaigning disaster which would make them irrelevant anyway) Obama takes off the table the chances of McCain winning back Washington state or Oregon.
Whereas for Clinton, her campaign would have been far more ‘traditional Democratic heartland (which includes ‘conservative Democrat’ white states like WV), plus Ohio and Florida’. While the prevailing conditions are more favourable in 2008, that approach didn’t work so well in 2004.
The outstanding question would be whether McCain would say vs Obama: ‘The picture as a whole looks iffy if we just try to defend the 2004 battlements; if you’re going to gamble, might as well gamble big and go down swinging’, and devote v substantial resources to win California, with a VP candidate selected to assist?
ESJ, there is a tsunami heading for the Republicans in Congress but I think McCain remains in reasonably good shape. I cannot ignore the lessons of recent electoral history in the US, not least of all the following:
1. it is very, very rare for any Democrats to surpass the 50% mark since World War 2 (not even Clinton could do it and Carter from memory was 50.1%);
2. there has only been one bona-fide Democrat landslide since 1940 and that was the 1964, induced by truly remarkable ingredients
2. when the Democrats win the electoral college, it is with a conservative Southerner at the top of the ticket;
3. Liberals are unelectable as POTUS;
4. (sadly) in the U.S. race has a huge impact and who turns up to vote and for who
Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama. Sure, many will change their mind. But if a few thousand stand their ground in states like New Hampshire, New Mexico, Iowa and Colarado, it will be decisive in a way similar to the Nader effect in 2000
In response to SimonH @ 147, I think HRC would have built a traditional Democratic model of victory – do well in the mid-west, sweep the NE and Mid-Atlantic and take (at least) 2 out of 3 states on the West Coast. She would have brought WV, KY, AK, MO and TN more into play than Obama, whilst probably conceding CO (and the Dakotas….).
She also would have more or less guaranteed Democratic wins in OH and PA, whilst making FL a state that leans Democratic rather than its current state (where it leans Republican when Obama v McCain). She would also likely have been stronger in NH. Of course, she’s was likely to do worse in the Mountain West (Colorado, NM, Nevada, etc), but she would probably still have won (at worst) CA, HI and WA – more than enough considering the votes she’s likely to have got in the East.
Obama is likely to lead to a much more unusual electoral map. He puts more Republican states on the map (think Virginia, NC, ND, NE, IN), but he puts quite a few traditional Democratic state in the “at risk” category – for example, he is still underperforming Clinton in important states like PA, OH, FL and MO. So Obama as a Democratic nominee leads to a more interesting campaign (it becomes more of a 50 state campaign), but it has more risks for the Democrats. Personally, I don’t think the Dems can win this election if they give up OH, PA and FL. Obama has to win one of these to have a real chance in November.
148 Chris from Edgecliff. This election will break all those rules.
#148 – CFE -[Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama] – the exit poll in WV – 36% will not vote for Obama and 25% will stay home. – total 61%. Take me home, mountain mama…………..
148 Chris from Edgecliff Just look what happened in the midterm 2006 elections. This will be bigger than that.
The Democrats won seats they weren’t supposed to win.
SimonH @ 147.
Thanks for the link. Very nicely written article.
Just a note on Chris from Edgecliff’s point @ 148.
The last time Republicans nominated a Senator from Arizona to be their Presidential nominee, they lost in the 1964 Democratic landslide.
Not that I’m saying that a similar result is going to happen this time, but it goes to show that historical precendent(s) can be used to prove/disprove any argument…
Chris from Edgecliff,
I don’t think it was the Newt-slide that lost MS-01 in 1994 so much as the retirement of the incumbent who would have enjoyed significant local personal support a after serving for 53 years regardless of political party (particularly as he was elected before the civil rights era and the GOP’s taking of the South from the Dems). When he retired, the Republicans won the District 63-37 in 1994, and since then won every election by 30-50 points.
They even out a Liberal in charge of the senate. The 3 by elections were run using all the scare tactics you mentioned. The Repugs spent their hard earned cash (and short supply) running their scare campaigns to no effect.
Chris from Edgecliff If you would like some running commentary on the election the votemaster predicted George Bush’s 2 victories with great accuracy.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
157 Chris B That should read even put a Liberal in charge.
Swing Lowe @ 155, there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences!
Incidentally, the last time a Democrat from Illinois was on the ballot in a presidential election it was an unmitigated disaster (on both occasions)
WV. Count 95%. Hillary winning 67% of the vote.
West Virginia , state whose history and statistics show the Team Obama “spin machine has been both misleading & deceptive , and liberal left media slant a lie.
Historically , pro Lincoln’s anti slavery , and seceded from the Confederate pro slavery Virginia based on cultural , philosophical , ethnic , religious, industry & geographic grounds despite the drivel from one selective historian here.WV’s history is with the North not the South , Historically the State is not a ‘red’ State spin lie number 1/ exposed
Employment , traditionally blue collar. That’s traditional ALP Labor. Which Obambot (not ObamaBacker) has the convictions courage to call traditional Labor supporters racists & bigots. It’s a dare Obamabots. This ALP type State of course will vote for an ALP type candidate like Hillary & has by 67% .Spin lie number 2/ exposed
Educationally , its people have a decent and strong rate of high school graduates relative to the US. They are therefore intelligent people as a fact , not dumb as implied by Obamabots. The fact many don’t relatively take Degrees is related to a poorer background needing immediate income & the job availability tertiary requirement , and not their clearly demonstated decent intelligence. Spin lie 3/ exposed
Racism , if blogers understood the history outlined & their pro North views
the racism if any is in the US is in States to its South. It’s the colour of Obama’s policys (elitist liberal fluff) that offend WV (& traditional ALP type voters) , not the colour of his skin. Conversely , ex confederate North Carolina who the Obambots lauded about Obama’s victory a week ago had a 90%+ black vote for Obama against a white fellow Democrat. So was there racism demonstated in North Carolina by blacks against the white Hillary ? The Obamabots were content with such potential reverse racism without comment. WV historically North & culturally tolerant, ALP type traditional don’t like Obama’’s politics color , which runs beneath the skin. Spin lie no 4/ exposed.
Culturally Repug type backward. This is Democrat territory mostly , 8 out of last 12 elections voted Democrat which further exposes this Repug cultural label. Spin lie no 5/ exposed
Race demographics, there are statistically miniscule Asian & Hispanic & black voters in WV.Hillary was heavily disadvantaged in vote winning by the absence of the first two race groups , so the low black vote is a red herring. Spin lie no
6/ exposed
POTUS , the WV demographics & polling vs McCain make WV a ‘red’ State win
for Hillary for the above reasons (the same polls show Obama gets thrashed). A
different mix of demographics show Hillary will also win OH , PA & FL over McCain & decisively win POTUS for the Democrats (a reasonably sure thing). Whereas Obama’s case rests on winning an odd grouping of ‘red’ States , mostly historically strongly ‘red’ and mostly McCain on polls now leads Obama (& before McCain publicly exposes his liberal’ credentials to them) Obama is the ‘claytons electability hope’) Obama the “best” candidate ? , after WV now , plus OH ,, PA , FL etc , Lie no 7/ exposed.
The Obamabots (not the ObamaBackers) intellectual reaction ? probably a Sir Joh’ answer : “it’ll be alright”….the dreamy undefined ‘change to’ message answer. For mine I’m still strongly with Hillary for Nominee, I’ve got stats & demographic reasons plus the above reasons (plus policys like Hillary’s universal Healthcare plan vs Obama’s “Howardism free choice” right wing subsidy based with Insurance premiums market set policy). Traditional Labor type voters in the US agree with me.
Ron, so the SDs should flock to Hillary now. You cant be that stupid- she cant win, she needs almost 70% of remaining delegates, and all the SD traffic is going the other way. 90% of Hillary voters in WV believe she’s going to win. Are you from WV by any chance.
I have concluded that you post simply to annoy people. You cant be that stupid
I ask this question: which states does Obama have a chance of winning such that he will – as some people have claimed – rewrite political reality in the US?
All the polling that I have seen thus far suggests that the election for Obama depends on Florida and/or Ohio. Nothing new there.
So: list the states, someone.
And I will point out for the record that I very much hope that he does win states that rewrite political reality in the US. Although I am a Clinton supporter, I am primarily a Democrat supporter.
Completely agree with Swing Lowe’s conclusion at #149. If McCain can take Pennsylvania off the Dems and hold Ohio (I’m regarding him holding Florida as a given), then he’s home almost regardless of the rest of the country.
But would you bet that way? Really, if Obama isn’t confident he can hold PA, he might as well pack up and go home. Last poll had him 7 points up, RCP rolling poll average 5 points up. Of course polls this far out have to be used with enormous caution, but as a ‘held’ Democrat state it looks like theirs to lose.
Presuming that Obama is less popular in PA than Kerry (and I wouldn’t conclude that without evidence), does the difference outweigh the degree to which the Repub brand is more on the nose than it was in 2004?
and David Gould ,
which points in my 3161 did you agree with and which points did you disagree with ?
#163 DG – you’ll be disappointed. the Obamabots here have the habit of running away from answering real and hard question, bit like their candidate really.
164 SimonH You only have to look at what happened in 2006. Since then the Republicans are even more on the nose.
The crazy thing Andrew, is that since she needs at least 71% of the remaining delegates, today’s win may not even achieve that target. That’s the sort of ludicrous mathematical scenario she requires to achieve a victory.
I have every belief that Ron will still be here touting Hillary’s chances and demanding her nomination well after the convention.
Ohio swung sharp to the left because of corruption. This should be a safe state for the Dems.
Chris from Edgecliff @ 160,
Touche.
David Gould @ 163,
Whilst I am also a Clinton supporter, the states that people assert that Obama can win that would constitute “rewriting political reality in the US” include:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
However, I still doubt whether Obama will win states like North Dakota or the Carolinas. I see Virginia, Indiana and Colorado as real shots for the Democrats this time (although Clinton would also have been competitive in Virginia and Indiana), but McCain should still win the other 3 fairly comfortably.
However, it is arguable whether this election will present such a change in political reality. After all, Bill Clinton won the following red/purple states in either 1992 or 1996:
Arkansas (obviously)
Tennessee (twice)
Kentucky (twice)
Louisiana (twice)
Georgia
Colorado
Montana
Nevada (twice)
Missouri (twice)
He also won all of the other key swing states (OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, WA) twice as well as Florida once.
So a Democrat doing well in these states (particularly the Southern ones) should not be that surprising to us…
Ron, how did you like the increase in the threshold for the medicare surcharge in last night’s budget? That was surely a great improvement to the Labor/Clinton health policy of univesal coverage.
David Gould, broken record time. State breakdowns v McCain are entertainment value only until it’s a two horse race. Polling has been so out of shape in the primaries it is irrelevant. Follow the Gallup daily tracking poll, it’s the only one whidh is proving to be of some use regarding the ebb and flow of voter sentiment.
Ron,
I agree that Clinton is more electable than Obama. I disagree with any assessment that puts WV as a key state, but I am unsure that that is what you were doing. I do not think that it is demographically key, either, as not many states have similar demographics.
However, I certainly agree – as would anyone who looked at the polling – that Obama is in trouble with blue collar workers. As the Howard years showed in Australia, they are the key demographic. They will generally vote on economics, but can certainly be swayed to some (small) extent by conservative values issues.
The question is: will blue collar workers vote for McCain, stay away or vote for Obama? My fear is that they will not tend to the ‘vote for Obama’ option.
The next question is: will his losses there be offset anywhere else that is useful to him? It is no good him picking up the intelligentsia in New York and California.
The black vote might help him. But the anti-black vote is also a problem in the states where black voters have significant numbers.
So: I guess I agree with you, Ron, but not on everything. Clear? Mud.
I would also point out that I have had interesting and informative conversations with people who might be called ‘Obamabots’. I may be a Clintoid, but I am sure we can all get along … get along … get along … give me superdelegates … Florida … Michigan … Florida … Michigan …
re:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
On what basis are these claims made? Is there polling I can look at?
And for those who claim the polling is hopeless: if the polling is hopeless, then where are you getting your information from that Obama is competitive in those states?
By running away from competing in WV, he has only reinforced the perception of being arrogant and looking down at demographic like WV and his Bittergate. Doo run run, doo run run, in West Virginia……… yes, we notice the flag pin. Worry? who’s worry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/opinion/14dowd-1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Ron,
That is a very naive description of the split that produced the West Virginian secession from Virginia in 1861. The reality is that a complex series of events produced the current divide, and slavery was only one of those issues.
173 David Gould You have only to look at what has happened in the 3 recent by elections. 2 R+7 and 1 R+10 to see what is happening regarding the accuracy of the polls.
One had a 25% swing. If only Gippsland would get that sort of swing.
DG @ 173,
Have a look at:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
They have polls matching Obama and Clinton v McCain in all states. In the states I listed above, Obama is less than 5% behind McCain (with the exception of ND, where he is 6% behind).
The by-election results are certainly very exciting.
However, there should be some caution attached here: all three by-elections had extremely conservative Democrats standing in them. As such, they attracted enough of the conservative vote to give them the win. Obama does not have conservative credentials. As such, predicting his likely performance in those areas based on their performance is suspect at best.
David @ 163: See my post and linked article. All listed there. Few of them ‘rewrite political reality’ in the sense that they require 20%+ swings or have never been won by the Dems before.
Obama’s election chances don’t rest on winning Florida (and barring a miracle, he won’t). McCain’s election chances rest on:
a) holding on to all of 2004 including holding Ohio; or
b) cancelling out losses with a big win, preferably Pennsylvania or Michigan (or, more remotely but conclusively, California).
Obama’s election strategy is far less ‘Ohio or bust!’ than HRC’s would have been. Albeit HRC would have had the backup plan of winning Florida.
PS Howler in my #147 post by including Tennessee as a state McCain would be grimly defending from O. Whoops. To even it up, I should have included Nevada as a state where McCain will at least face a significant challenge, where he probably wouldn’t have vs HRC.
West Virginia is South of the Mason-Dixon line, and was in the Confederacy. Although the North of West Virginia is being swamped by the Yankies moving south.
Therefore there is a gradual shift to the left.
I do not really see a three per cent gap as that good a result for Obama. Colorado is nice, but that is given to him, and he is still behind on delegates. He needs to win states that are in the red column; Clinton needs to hold states that are in the blue column.
I have looked at http://www.electoral-vote.com a lot. It is my favourite site for polling data.
For general information for those that do not know the Mason-Dixon line is an imaginary line that runs between Ohio and Maryland in the north and Virginia and West Virginia in the south. The Yankees were/are in the North and the Confederates were/are in the south.
Chris B, West Virginia was not a member of the Confederate States of America. They almost immediately seceded and joined the Union within six months of Virginia leaving the Union.
180 SimonH They actually lost that 2004 lead in the mid term 2006 elections.
Re the argument that the three local House candidates who won the recent elections are conservative Dems – this is true. However, the whole Republican operation tried to vigorously paint them as liberals and attach them to both Obama and Pelosi. Aggressive adverising campaigns featuring Wright, bitter annd guns were trotted out in each instance. And in each instance the Democratic candidate won the safest of Republican seats which they had not held for decades. It’s on folks.
Based on looking back at the polling history for South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, South Carolina looks to be the only realistic hope for Obama.
Indiana is also weird. Looking at the polling history, there is one outlier poll that tips it to Obama in a landslide. The rest have McCain storming in. I can see why they have it as a dead heat based on those results, but the polling is not conclusive that it is a possibility for Obama. It is much more likely that the poll giving it to him was a weirdie.
And North Dakota? I do not think so. Six per cent is a huge margin.
So, on my analysis South Carolina is the only shot for Obama, if we put Colorado in the bag, so to speak.
He still needs Florida or Ohio to win.
I hope it’s on. I just don’t think that it is (not in terms of the presidential election, anyhow).
Thing is, if the Dems win against this sort of publicity in the south, everything is on the table. The Republicans will be stretched thin, and McCain will have to be running as Jekyll and Hyde to try to trick both the right and centre all over the country. It’s all a bridge too far. Get a couple of bob on NC now.
SL and DG
The 3 cornered polls at the moment are between
McCain v Obama
and
McCain v Clinton.
They are loaded polls. Even given this fact, both are beating McCain.
The November election is between
Democrat v Republican.
80% unhappy with direction of country
70% unhappy with the War
Bush fave rating 28%
Economy tanking
War
Katrina
8 years of this vile Republican mob.
Core support split is now 51% Dem to 38% Repub. Compared to 43% each in 2004.
Democrats are money flushed
Repubs are money poor
Record Democrat turnouts.
Record new Dem registrations
Record Independant support
Do you really think McCain is this good? Do you really think this 72yo, who looks,talks and acts every one of those 72 years, can turn all that around?
The same McCain who a large part of even that shrinking base despises?
Debate is fun, but reality is reality.
A wave is coming, and it will take the Repubs out with them.
185 Al Thank you. You are correct, but a large number of West Virginian’s enrolled in the Confederate Army as Virginians. As well as some fought for the North
191 HarryH Thank you for backing up what I have been saying.
Both are beating McCain nationally, that is true. However, the national race is not the thing that decides the presidential election. It is the races in each state. We already have columns of states that are definitely going to be Democrat and definitely going to be Republican, even with all those other things going on. The question is not ‘How good is McCain?’. The question is: why, if things are so bad, is McCain so competitive – competitive to the point that he is beating Obama in the delegate count and only one state behind Clinton in that regard?
My suspicion is because Democrat supporters are building a narrative in their heads that is not in the heads of the average punter out there. I remember similar claims before the 2004 election. How could anyone vote for Bush again? Well, they did, didn’t they? I also remember the 2007 Australian election. All the talk was of seats falling because of a backlash of disattisfaction with the Liberal social agenda. That did not happen. 2PP, 48 per cent of people still voted against Labor. Things are never as we on the Left wish them to be.
Further, on what basis do you make that claim that the national polling is accurate (it, too, is based on the same three-cornered questions) and that the state polling is not?
I suppose we wouldn’t want facts to get in the way of a good debate would we?
194 David Gould Again, look at the evidence. Mid term polls 2006. 3 by elections where the Republicans were routed.
These are not claims. And what happened in 2004 had no parrallel to this.
The Republicans one the mid term 2002 elections and took control of the senate.
Wheras the oposite happened in 2006 mid terms.
David, differences in 08 compared to 04 include:
lie of the land – as the 3 House seats indicate, polls and issues mentioned above, the huge number of registered Dems, the machine that Obama has built (which as of yesterday, began a 50 – not 57 – state voter enrolment drive),
the fact that the old man is not the incumbent, Obama’s rhetoric – this one is huge, it is what propelled Reagan to landslides, new media, the internet and Obama’s savvy on this front…
I could probably keep rattling, but I’m seeing 04 and 08 as worlds apart.
A good policeman would not ignore the evidence, although some people say they theory of evolution is only a theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994
A massive swing to the Republicans.
Two years later:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
An electoral college landslide to Bill Clinton.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections%2C_1996
Republicans gained a net of two seats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1996
Democrats gained a net of eight seats, but lost the popular vote by quite a margin.
My point is that mid-term elections do not tell us much about presidential elections, and that congressional elections do not tell us much about congressional elections. The races are different, and the public views them as such.
Whoops the Theory of Evolution.
David
In 2004 the people still thought they could win the War
In 2004 the economy was flying
In 2004 there was no Katrina
In 2004 Repugs were only half as on the nose as they are now
In 2004 Repugs had an energised base led by Bush loving evangelicals
etc
etc
This is 2008
For those who are optimistic, I am glad for you. And I hope very much that you are correct.
I do not share that optimism, but I am still hopeful of a Democratic victory come the fall.
ChrisB,
That’s exactly why I called Ron’s attempt to paint West Virginia as a typical Union state naive. I’ve spent a fair bit of time researching the US Civil War, all stemming from a trip to Gettysburg. After being there, you really can’t help but become somewhat interested.
2008 is different to 2004, yes. But the similarity is that people on the Left were predicting a crushing defeat for Bush. After all, look at all the bad stuff he’d done.
This sounds very similar to what is happening here.
206 Al Thanks Al. It took me quite a lot of research to understand the polical connections with the civil war.
David Gould, are you going to be our LTEP for 2008?
As well as the research on McCarthysm and why the Democrats were involved in McCarthysm, and now they have regrets about that part of their history.
209 TurningWorm We have lost Glen so we need someone else.
My 207 post is a little bad, I think. What I am trying to say is that there is certainly reason to believe that people would not vote for the Republicans this time around – all the things cited. However, the polling is not showing that voters share this perception. It is all very well to say, ‘Well, the polling must be wrong.’ But that simply puts the question up in the air as to what is happening.
You can either go with the logical position – that no-one in their right mind would vote for the Republicans in this environment – or you can go with the polls. Given how often predictions based on the logical position have been wrong, I am leaning towards simply accepting the polls at face value. I understand why others might not do that. But I think that their claims lack evidentiary support if they do so.
212 David Gould. 25% swing to Democrats in one by election certainly shows some inconsistency, and how about the other 2 by elections?
I am certainly happy to beg the Republicans to lose the election.
What more evidence do you need?
I have addressed the by-election issue, I think. It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
Chris,
Opinion poll data for the presidential clash between Obama and McCain.
Well, keep feeding us your information and we’ll try to provide a counter argument.
Yes, but the by elections were not opinion polls. They are fact.
They are indeed fact. However, they are not particularly pertinent – imo – to a presidential clash. Extremely conservative Democrats were being examined by the electorate in those instances. Obama is not an extremely conservative Democrat. When the people in these conservative areas look at the ballot, they will see the name ‘Obama’ written there.
And I will point out that opinion polls had been predicting these Democratic by-election victories – opinion polls which are most certainly not predicting an Obama victory in these areas come November. The opinion polls got it right for the by-elections. That is evidence that they might very well have it right for November.
David
Has it occured to you that after 8 years of G.W.Bush and his Republican Party that the populace might be tending slightly away from Republican Conservatism?
Their base has shrunk in 4 years from a split of 43% each to 51% Dem to 38% Repub.
As the mood and electorate swung to them in 1994 it has now swung firmly away from them.
Travis Childers is what you’d call a conservative Democrat: anti abortion, pro life, evangelical christian, gun owner, in other words the only sort of person the Democrats could get elected in a conservative area of Mississippi!
I’ll agree with David Gould that we shouldn’t get too carried away with predictions of Republican annihilation in November, but assuming it’s a much higher voter turnout than in 2004, you’d give Obama/Democrats the edge.
The mood certainly swung to them in 1994. They still lost the 1996 presidential election.
It has certainly occurred to me that that might be happening. However, the state-by-state polling does not reflect that. Why?
The Republican Party certainly campaigned against him using the terms Liberal. In fact they even threw the kitchen sink at him.
David
Keating hung on for one more election here after the mood changed too.
Why does the state by state polling not reflect the swing? Because their is no Democrat candidate yet. There is no united Democrat Party yet. The polling is McCain v a split ticket.
Wait and see the polls in July/August David.
And as I said:
It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
These districts are not going to perceive Obama as one of them in any shape or form. These districts will vote Republican in the November presidential race.
The Democrats have NEVER had so much money. The Republicans have NEVER been so broke. Further to that, companies connected to Republican Party are switching sides according to the Votemaster.
I am happy to wait to see those polls. However, I would suggest that all those suggesting an inevitable win for the Democrats wait for those polls, too.
Money is good.
226 HarryH So did John Howard.
All these examples of sides hanging on after the mood has changed does not fill me with confidence, by the way.
To put the amount of money the Democrats have earnt and spent in perspective it is at least 100 times more then George Bush, since last year. Including Move on org.
http://www.moveon.org
David Gould , Swing Lowe & Chris from edgecliff
First , David Gould #172. Thanks for the courtesy of replying its psephological depth , few Hillary ones have. ‘Not on everything clear as mud’, many of my posts have imbeded (as are my Amigo friend FINN’S) return fire by 2 of us daily vs 30 odd Obama supporters a lot of whom use belittling & sniper insulting blogs. We two started civilly.
Davidd , Swing and Chris
The reality of hillary electability vs Obama’s , two of you captured which I’ve tried in vain to suggest:
“there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences” and National comparative Polling is irrelevant.
Both the “historical precedents” inclusive of demographics & other psephological factors and Polls that should be read by State (with the aforementioned factors) are a sound basis for assessment. WV is winnable for hillary , she leads in against McCain & it votes Dems 8 of last12. Overwhelming OH ,PA FL where Hillary does lead McCaina they say Hillary is by far more electable and show serious electoral problems for Obama. They also suggest most of the Obama ‘hope to’ States poor odds for the same above psephological reasons & with McCain on Polls ahead in most.
The ‘bitter’ Ohio is unlikely (McCain is ideal Repug to win this state) and the J..ew/Hispanic FL impossible. NC & SC and other Southern red States , the Dems the worst 3 combinations ‘liberal’ , black & non sothen (inlike Bill & Carter)
The Repugs with a ‘moderate’ in some areas McCain have got a good electable candidate
SuperDelegate Count. All of Obama’s supers under Dems rules , can switch to Hillary anytime they like , and should
David, your general caution/pessimism is warranted given the dismal showing of non-Bill Clinton Dem candidates in Presidential elections for the last 40 years.
However, your assertion at #188 (Obama must win Florida or Ohio to win) is just flat-out wrong, as the New Republic article referenced at #147 indicates.
One of many non-far-fetched scenarios is that he picks up Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That’ll do him if all other states remain as per 2004. On the electoral-vote.com site, 8 points up Iowa, 3 points up Colorado, and 1 point down in NM, so far as anyone places store in non-averaged current polls. Vice President Bill Richardson has a fine ring to it, I tells ya…
And that’s disregarding any controversial potential pickup in the near southeast (NC, SC, VA). The whole point of the (anticipated) Obama strategy is to keep McCain fighting on as many disparate fronts as possible, so he can’t easily defend the 2004 line in the sand, and he can’t dump many tens of millions into Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe PA without leaving himself dangerously underdressed elsewhere. A guy who is currently only drawing in the polls vs Obama in Indiana, which should be one of the first states with sizeable population (after TX and his home state) that he can bank on, has serious troubles if not very very well resourced.
David
The mood change in the U.S. happened back in 2005.
The realisation that Bush’s War was a complete lie and that America was losing it.
The Katrina debacle.
Corruption
Incompetence
Terry Schiavo
and the list goes on.
The mood change is well and truly cemented now. There will be no “beating the trend” for the Repubs in Nov.
They are on the nose royally…as Newt Gingrich said last week…no matter what we say or do ,they are just gonna say to us “Not You”.
Finns at 174, youre lucky Ron’s here to make you look more reasonable. Obama didnt campaign in WV because there didnt appear to be any point, so to take those exit polls as any indication when he didnt campaign there it as usual. clutching at straws
The bottom line is this- HILLARY CANT WIN. All your arguments about electability, demographics etc have been presented to voters SINCE DAY ONE. And they have chosen Obama.
The only argument worth hearing at this point from Hillary supporters is: how is Hillary going to win the 70% of delegates she needs?? You can bang on about other issues as much as you like, wont change the math
David in the 2006 mid terms, the Democrats won seats the Democrat National committee did not think they would win, and did not put any money into. Moveon.org on the other hand did think that they had a chance and put money into those seats. Now the Democrats have control of the Senate thanks to Moveon.org
http://www.moveon.org
Their site has a lot of good information on it.
236 HarryH You left out (in fact so did I), the discraceful treatment of wounded soldiers returning from Iraq. That is putting the soldiers in rat/cockroach infected rooms.
Also if you comine the dead and wounded numbers from Vietnam and Iraq. The combined total puts Iraq in front. Even though Vietnam lasted much longer.
Spell check. combine.
Not to mention the huge numbers of murders/suicides amoungst the returning soldiers.
re Indiana, Obama is only tied there because of one bizarre poll. The rest all of McCain miles in front there. We will need to wait for more polling to see the true situation.
Re Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, if it is accepted that Obama is close in those states, it also has to be accepted that McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004 in other states. Thus, on the polling, Obama has to pick up Ohio or Florida – I repeat: on the polling. That is the information we have; that is the information I am going on.
I believe that Obama’s strategy is in general a good one. However, I hope that he does not waste money in states that cannot realistically be won and leave Ohio and Florida to McCain.
Most of the soldiers – and their families – will vote for McCain. So I would not count that issue as being too useful for the Democrats.
As to Moveon.org, they are a great organisation. I will certainly have to keep an eye on what they are saying about the presidential race.
David Gould – those same soldiers on the extended tours that they didn’t sign up for? I’m sure the margin the Reps win soldiers by will be drastically cut from what it has been in the past.
‘Drastically cut’? I do not think so – not with McCain as the Republican candidate.
One thing today’s result confirms is that the Obama campaign has stalled. Since Texas it has been one mediocre performance after another. The 90/10 advantage Obama has with the black vote during this campaign is his core demographic.
I actually agree with Martin Luther King when he said in his famous I have Dream speech that, “I look forward to the day when a man is judged by the content of his character rather than the colour of his skin”. Obviously, the black Democratic vote don’t agree. They have just voted for the black man.
For a guy with so much popular support, he does not seem to be cutting through to middle America.
Maybe the SDs will make a very tough decision.
100 years McCain? I’m willing to bet on it.
162
Andrew
Please, don’t put money on it! LOL
As the opinion polls up to September last year showed the black vote 70/30 in favour of Hillary, I’d say it’s not a blind racism driving this block. Might have more to do with the character Obama has shown on one hand, and the disdain shown to them by the Clintons, particularly Bill, on the other.
If there is a race candidate at the moment, I’d suggest it is the one harping on about ‘workin, hard-working Americans, white Americans’, and the white vote at every stop.
243 David Gould The anti war vote is huge, haven’t you seen the polls. It’s running at over 70%. Further to that if you look at all the polls on the major issues, the Democrats have the major issues sewn up. Each major issue that I have seen the Democrats are on about 70% I would expect the general polls to line up with the major issue polls.
To be clear, are you saying that you expect the Democrats to get 70 per cent of the vote?
Can you give me a link to these major issues polls giving the Democrats that kind of lead?
The anti-war vote may be huge. That does not mean that the people who oppose the war are going to all vote for the Democrats. The anti-war vote in Australia was huge. 48 per cent of people still voted for the Liberal Party. Why? It was not an election issue. The Iraq war will not be a major election issue, no matter how the left like to dream it will be. People simply do not base their vote on that sort of thing.
“New Style Politics” Question Number 2 to the Obamaphiles:
Is President Obama going to say “SORRY” to the native Amercian Indians for the past genocides; to the enslavement of the Blacks; for the “White American” policy legislations (still on the book) on the Chinese during 1850-1910 and for the internment of the japanese during the second War World?
Pres Obama: “We reflect on their past mistreatment. We reflect in particular on the mistreatment of those who were the lost generations – this blemished chapter in our nation’s history. The time has now come for the nation to turn a new page in America’s history by righting the wrongs of the past and so moving forward with confidence to the future. We apologise for the laws and policies of successive congresses and governments that have inflicted profound grief, suffering and loss on these our fellow Americans….. And for the indignity and degradation thus inflicted on a proud people and a proud culture, we say sorry…… There comes a time in the history of nations when their peoples must become fully reconciled to their past if they are to go forward with confidence to embrace their future”
- What about it Mr. Obama, a profile of courage or just another politician.
Q1 was: Is Pres. Obama going to ratify kyoto? The answer was NO.
So Old Style Politics 1 – New style Politics 0
Finns, what are you on man? The extensive answer given to your question 1 was yes.
I’ll take a bit of the nuance out of my response, and only post the relevant words now. Ready? Keep your eyes open:
Now, for those having trouble with comprehension, what did the UNFCCC produce? Correct! And how will one ‘work within it’? Correct again!!!
From http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Pancho,
I hope you arent heartbroken in November.
EStJ
#254 – Amigo, show me one statement from Obama that he said “I will ratify Kyoto” as Kevin Rudd did.
Finns, I know you aren’t that dumb.
David
Seeing that you are a great believer in current polls:
The Top 3 Issues deciding your vote is
Economy 40%
Iraq War 21%
Healthcare 8%
The first 2 (Economy and Iraq) tie in together. The American public now not only see that the War was a sham and is a disaster, they also see it as a major drag on a faltering economy.
Ed, nice to know you’re lookin out for me pal.
#259 Amigo, i know you are not that stupid to be fooled by “an Obama administration will work constructively within it”. Say it man, simple: “I will ratify Kyoto”.
Always Pancho, always
Without looking at the demographics, I would pretty much guess that close to all of the 21 per cent who said that the Iraq war was the top issue deciding their vote have never voted Republican in their lives. Healthcare likewise.
Do you have the demographic breakdown of Republican/Democrat voters for those?
In any case, that leaves the economy. Who is best placed there? Sure, the economy is in bad shape. But Bush is to blame for that. So, McCain gets to fight Obama on (almost) even terms – I give Obama a running 4 per cent start here.
Neither has any economic credentials, but guess what? The working class do not like Obama. And they are the ones to whom the economy matters most. It is a matter here of where Obama spends his money and how he pitches his message.
ESJ,
Good to see you have not been put off by the blustering blowback of the bragging Barak bludgers.
How do you see the campaign unfolding from here?
DG – re the economy – valid points BUT Hillary’s gas tax populism had a negative effect on her in IN and NC.
Good to see the Bludgertorium warming up with the click click clicking of the keys (rather than the flap flap flapping of the butterflies’ wings….nah, don’t ask!), and lots of sentences and even full stops!
It looks like the ‘electability’ red herring is being waved around again, but let’s get it nailed down: this is Hillary Clinton’s last fall back position. She’s gone from the inevitable annointed nominee to arguing that ‘he’ can’t be elected in November. But that’s not the point: he can be elected NOW!
She has failed to be.
Moving the goal posts as the winner gets closer to the finish line (to mix metaphors, or sports, or something) is nothing but a sign of complete desperation and is nothing short of an insult to the voters who actually, funnily enough, don’t want her to be the nominee.
Arguing it is simply playing her game; and it IS a game.
The real issue, is how to bring the diverse groups of Democrats together (NOT just the ones who voted in the primaries), the independents who are sick of ugly Bush Republicanism and his infantile war, the true Conservative Republicans (big C) who want their party taken out of the hands of these mad Neocons, and those who’ve never voted before in their lives.
Hillary cannot do it becasue she cannot win the nomination.
Obama can becasue he’s about to win it. He’ll then go on to do the above.
Watch.
David Gould at 264
I could understand a claim such as the ‘The working class prefer Clinton over Obama’ but to say that the ‘The working class do not like Obama’ is a bit of a stretch. Can you point to anything outside of a candidate selection race preference poll that supporting your assertion?
that is *
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx
This is very interesting. It confounds some of my underlying thinking, such as that Obama will do worse with blue collar workers, while supporting my general conclusion: that this will be a close election.
Yeah – noticed that too.
Now I wonder if we can fix the space before the comma fetish.
It was a stretch. Consider it amended as you suggested.
PB Profiles:
Catrina the Counting Courtesan knows how to track everything. Hobbies include watching the numbers rollover at the petrol bowser. Is almost orgasmic when they change prices electronically at her local servo.
Greeensborough Growler at 273
Umm, sorry GG, I don’t even have a license to drive let alone a car.
They spent, they came, they went:
Having lost a similar Congressional race this month in Louisiana, Republicans had worked desperately to win this contest, sending Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for Mr. Davis, along with Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; President Bush and Senator John McCain recorded telephone messages that were sent to voters throughout the district.
Merle Black, a Southern politics expert at Emory University, called a Democratic victory potentially “a huge upset, and an indication of a terrible year ahead for the Republicans.” He added, “In theory, this should be an easy win for them.”
Mimicking a strategy that proved successful in 2006, Democrats ran staunch conservatives in both this and the Louisiana race, forcing their Republican opponents to attack national party figures as surrogates.
Mr. Davis had been hoping for a large turnout in his home of DeSoto County, where roughly 15 percent of the district’s voters live, and which is solidly Republican and mostly white. But a last-minute appearance for him by Mr. Cheney on Monday apparently failed to rally his base sufficiently; indeed a modest room at a local convention center was hardly packed.
NYT
…you can hear the Republicans groaning from here! LOL
#273 GG, is Catrina with a C still your Chick Magnate? or has her polarity been pulled back to the self appointed leader of the Pack?
Catrian,
Don’t need a licence to watch.
Finns,
Catrina used KR as a sugar daddy for entry and is now playing the room. She’s here, she’s weird and that is a good thing.
Thank you GG,
Clinton will go to the beginning of June, she will make and lose the argument over Florida and Michigan and concede defeat. This by definition will weaken Obama because front and centre will be the working class whites issue, she will want to do it to position herself as the candidate they should have chosen if BHO goes down.
McCain will campaign as a centrist – I am the change type candidate. who else do the conservatives have to vote for? ie he has to distance himself from Bush to the utmost.
Obama will write off the working class whites a la West Virginia, the issue will be whether the fabled new Obama voters actually exist and can be mobilised. Thus if the mid-west is given up by Obama (ie he doesnt try for the white conservative vote) he has to win in unusual places like the Carolinas and Virginia – not impossible but he has to get record black turnout and hold enough white vote to win.
For example Missisipi is something like 38% black and the blacks who do vote do in fact vote 90% democrat its just that the black turnout is less than the white turnout, if Obama got 30% of the black vote in old miss he only needs 33% of the whitey vote.
Alternatively he “triangulates” attacks blacks in a Sister Souljah moment to try and prove he is something new. Questionable if he will do that because he will be attacked as an Uncle Tom if he tries that tack AND reverend wright makes it hard to run on that.
If he goes for the new voter strategy I think he loses and McCain is president. The later maybe but I dont think the Democrats would really wear it.
Gr-e-e-e-nsborough Growler at 277
I never tried it, but I will, as the numbers turn over I’ll think about those super delegates slipping out of Hillary’s fingers, I think about you, and I’ll smile.
273 GG – That is a classic post.
GG I always wondered who would subscribe to the Weather Channel but Catrina provides the answer.
GG n Eddy sittin’ in a tree…………….
Harryd’H (cpe)
Shittin on thee……
ESJ,
You are not allowed to speak about anything on Foxtel. It apparently makes you a neocon. Apparently, the weather is a right wing conspiracy.
lol GG
you know your good self and Eddy are far to good to waste your excretement on a lowly Obamabot
Clinton last remaining argument for the SD’s is that she is more likely to be elected POTUS than Obama.
Well fair enough, I can’t fault her for making the argument, nor for her fans to recite it chapter and verse. But I don’t buy it.
Firstly, obviously, she has lost the primary race, surrendering a huge head start, and running an inept campaign. It’s a point that tends to weigh against being a superior candidate.
Clinton is an easy target for a Republican negative campaign. But they have held fire and focused on Obama, perhaps just to destabilise the primary process but also because he is seen as the bigger threat. Similarly, Obama has held off going negative on Clinton so that his negative attacks on McCain have more bite when the time comes.
Clinton has had the advantage of having very to fend off only light attacks. This means her results so far are an overstatement of what she can deliver. The flip side is that Obama’s results are an understatement of what he can deliver come November.
Also, in order to keep her campaign alive (such as it is) she has slipped into bigotry and economic illiteracy. While it’s helped her in recent primaries she has bleed support more broadly – to stay in the race she has poisoned her own well.
Greeensborough Growler and Edward StJohn
Guys – your so yesterday! Haven’t you heard about RSS?
Last time it was Jen, wasn’t it Eddy?
That’s right, you kept stalking her over what she looked like until she got so sick of your creepiness she told you where to get off.
Ah, ‘get off’, seems you like to by getting your little doggies all leg humpy together.
That ‘classic’ post of GG’s at 273 is your modus operandi: a snide personal and sexist attack. Yep, ‘classic’ Eddy if ever I saw it. No wonder you like it.
Evening all.
ESJ – The Repugs don’t have the luxury of taking their base for granted. Signs are already showing that the base is starting to fall out for them, so McCain’s biggest job of all will be shoring up the rednecks, fundamentalists, etc., or else they run the risk of decreased voter turnout.
This allows Obama to be the centrist player, not McCain, because Obama has more wriggle due to the fact that a LOT of people are angry with the current Bush administration and the general direction of US politics under the Repugs. Many of these will get out and vote Democrat no matter what.
This is why we have already seen poor turnouts for Republican primary contests, and why they are now being routed in places like Mississippi.
By the way, why are you and GG taking potshots at Catrina. I often log on here just to get her SD updates. It helps make this blog a source of information, far more valuable than reading reams and reams of “Hillary can still win” nonsense.
David Goud
The poll is a National poll , 850 people spread accross the US. As such the value is questionabe. But this one is compounded by trying to brak by numerous sub groups , so suggest you ignore it
A National poll 2 weeks ago showed 31% of Hillary supporters will vote McCain
2 corrections
David Gould
plus ‘per calendar day’
KR,
For someone who throws it around with gay abandon, you are far, far too precious when it comes back at you.
#288 _ cathrina with a C – RSS? Removalist’s Super S*it
Kirri, Kirri,
As they say in NSW politics time for a bex , cup of tea and a good sit down.
293
Greeensborough Growler
You’ve always played second fiddle to Eddy, haven’t you? What’s the matter diddums, just can’t do it without the ‘big’ boy to hide behind?
Unctious Snidely and his little mate, what a pair!
Catrina,
Where’s the SD count at now? Net margin will do
KR,
Pathetic response!
Your credibility stands on whether you can raise a credible smite.
Good luck.
Ah, the good ole days:
J.F.K. bought affection in West Virginia. “The boss of Logan County said 35,” Peters recalled. “He meant $3,500, but Kennedy thought it was $35,000, so he gave him $35,000. They put out all this money and they carried the precincts.” (Hillary has been using street money more than Obama, though it is unclear how much it has helped.)
MoDo, NYT
298
Greeensborough Growler
What’s up GG, isn’t the truth enough for you?
Dyno , FINNS & GG
Dyno , the site below gives reasonable updates. As you are aware the Superdelegates ALL could drop Obama any day they choose right up to & including a convention. They are L plate endorsements (voidable)
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
FINNS , with multidtude of blogs yesterday at one time ,did you get my 1 line ditty ?
GG , when talking to k/r you said “gay abandon” , interesting choice of words
KR,
What truth?
Everyone who regularly reads this blog knows you flounder when questioned.
You are just hurting your “brand” with the unsustainable bulldust about ESJ.
Yeah, right GG, and do you think anyone with a memory of Eddy’s greasy little habits is likely not to also remember you running around behind him chucking snot like a 3 year old?
Well I sure do buster, and there’s no surprise in seeing you doing exactly the same thing again.
My last post on the subject.
Dyno at 297
Obama: 290 (284+6)
Clinton:269.5 (270.5-1)
I.e. Obama is leading Clinton by 20.5 (or 13.5 if you exclude the Pelosi club).
Doesn’t it make you feel all warm inside!!
KR,
This is clearly something that troubles you.
Obviously,, PB is your therapy of choice. (That is a good thing).
You have issues with ESJ and myself.
Fill your boots with acrimony.
PS. If you want to look very carefully, I actually posted saying the naming of Jen was uncool at the time.
Yeah, we all have a moral compass. Yeah, we all move on.
Ron [#1476 - No , yous are the butterfly pixy variety]?
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=853&cp=15#comment-151814
#305 GG – [You have issues with ESJ and myself] – dont left me out, i have issue with him!!
There is a tendency in politics called the trot tendency. Those of the trot tendency have no real policy and ideology – it is a tendency motivated by oppositionism and spite.
But when politics plays itself out the trots always get sent packing – so when in doubt always pick the opposite side to trot tendency. IMHO the heavy trot backing for Obama is proof that in the end John Sydney McCain will be President.
Kirri, truly I dont mind your contributions – I just find they are not very original – after all anybody can (with a certain intelligence) look up the WAPO or NYT – its just the one idea you seem to have is we are about to witness the next great depression – its just a little tired for the 9000th time.
Finns,
KR only hates you because you exist. (a flea biting the Pope in Rome)
KR hates ESJ (and now apparently me) because we stand up to him.
But you can upgrade yourself.
“Three former chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission will publicly endorse Democratic Sen. Barack Obama’s bid for the presidency Wednesday, including one who served under President Bush.
William Donaldson, who was SEC chairman for about 2½ years from early 2003, along with Clinton and Reagan appointees Arthur Levitt and David Ruder, will join former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in endorsing Sen. Obama, his campaign said. Mr. Volcker endorsed Sen. Obama in January.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121073227421390697.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
Oh, I’m a ‘trot’ now! LOL
God you’re a sad sick old bloviating piece of work!
You, on the other hand, come here for one reason only.
Like a dog to its vomit, that’s you Eddy…greasy.
310
Pancho
yeah, more ‘racists’ trying to hide it by endorsing the black guy.
There must be an epidemic of that going around.
Hey, I don’t even read the WAPO! LOL
Okay, I think we’ve all had our say about each other now.
#309 – [KR only hates you because you exist] – No, GG, he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff as a:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=55wWiFi6BFo
My god, just love this song.
Obama picks up 2 more SDs, Democrats Abroad Chair Christine Schon Marques and Indiana Rep. Pete Visclosky. From http://thepage.time.com/2008/05/14/obama-starts-wednesday-with-two-new-supers/.
I think the most important question here – and it is something I have been pondering over a few days because it has been a recurring theme – is who are these SDs making their pledges at 4 in the morning?
OK Finns,
We’ll add your name to the execution list, on your request.
GG, like a badge of honour my friend.
Pancho
It would be nice to think they were lying in bed – staring at the ceiling and were just struck with the overwhelming need to endorse Obama.
I’d expect the supers put their news release in early to get a good run on the breakfast news cycle.
Should be another couple to for evening cycle if the Obama machine is running to form.
Thanks for the update, Catrina.
As someone who is ambivalent about all three candidates it doesn’t make me feel anything much, actually, but I would observe that the SD flow is the surest sign that Obama’s got the nomination in the bag.
It will take “being caught with a dead girl or a live boy” (or some equivalently scandalous revelation) for the SDs to be willing to risk their careers by unseating him now. Hillary clearly knows it too.
FINNS
#306
No Amigo , it was re your (& my) anguish of the earthquake in China
Ron #1362
TO FINNS
Well I tried real hard to focus on the economic garble conversation here trying to avoid writing a ditty of China thought to you so I’ll leave you my immediate thoughts when seeing your blog , which would have been the dittys last line from a friend
‘the heart fills with sadness , as little bit me is lost’
For those of you who missed the by election results in Mississippi today here is part of what you would find on the Votemaster. The Republicans got slaughtered. By my estimation a swing of more than 30%
The MS-01 loss is especially painful to the GOP for three reasons. First, the Republicans tried very, very hard here, pouring in huge amounts of money and having Gov. Haley Barbour and Vice President Dick Cheney campaign for Davis. Second, in IL-14 and LA-06 they could argue they had flawed candidates. That doesn’t hold here. Greg Davis is a popular mayor who has done a good job and has never been involved in any scandals. Third, this election was the second field test of the Republicans’ November strategy, which they rolled out against Cazayoux and refined here. They ran ads bitterly attacking Childers as a close associate and fellow traveler of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi. They called him a LIBERAL (them’s fightin’ words in Mississippi). They said he didn’t represent Mississippi values. They tried everything. It didn’t work.
At this point NRCC chairman Tom Cole (R-OK) is probably sweating bullets. He has hardly any money left and the only arrow in his quiver is calling Democrats tax-and-spend liberals. If that doesn’t work in R+7 districts (LA-06) and R+10 districts (MS-01) what’s going to happen in swing districts like AZ-01, FL-15, IL-11, IL-18, MN-03, NJ-07, NY-29, OH-15, OH-16, VA-01, and VA-11, all of which are Republican-held open seats that are R+5 or less?
http://www.electoral-vote.com
#321 – tq ron. was a little upset yesterday.
Votemaster is due to update so you may have to go back to the previous day.
It doesn’t matter how much spin people put on it, and the will, it just adds up to one thing. Oblivion.
Spell check: They will.
Good evening bludgers,
Just got home from a long day to peruse the events in the US.
It appears there’s been one more SD endorse The Kid sine earlier today, taking Obama’s SD lead to 12/
The headlines around the US seem to be sayng….
HILLARY HAS COMLETELY FLOGGED OBAMA IN WV!!
…….BUT WHO CARES!!
Good evening, everyone,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=or0eZYbvHiU
When they can’t cut the mustard, they Custer Muster.
Popular vote: BHO, check, ding!
Delegate count: BHO, check, ding!
Super Delegate count: BHO, check, ding!
Three recent House wins in Gingrichville: check, ding!
The Big MO: BHO, check, ding!
Sirs, it would appear that your GOPper-Express credit card is no longer valid. Do you have some other form of legal tender?
And Gentleman Growler and Eddy Eslowpoke, when you’re asked for some collateral, there’s no need to pull down your pants.
Thanks for that info #322, Chris B. It confirms that the 2006 elections were much more than a protest vote. Voters seem permanently disillusioned with the incompetence, greed and corruption evident in the Bush regime. It extends beyond the mess created in Iraq, although that was clearly the starting point.
The media ownership has been in close cahoots with the Bush-Rove-Cheney agenda from the beginning. But there are many voters and potential voters that don’t believe them any more than the Government. So while racism is probably still a concern in the US, it is improbable that blatant appeals to red-neckery and Bible-toting will get many more votes.
Obama is clearly right in aiming for a new era. It is simply not credible that McCain, who wants to continue the Iraq debacle and has no known economic policies, will beat Obama by appealing to prejudice.
Obama will beat him a lot easier than he has beaten Hillary, who carried some sentiment from the Clinton era plus being the first female candidate.
Don which swing states will Obama win?
Chris B
‘oz’ voters distinguish between State & Federal governments (Labor held most States throughout most of Howard’s 10 year, kept electing Labor at State & Howard at Federal. Bush is on the nose in the US and the Polls show it.
However McCain Polls are strong (showing him easily beating Obama , whilst Hillary beating him). part of the reason is McCain for over 3 years makes regular TV interviews and in the main bags Bush on policy which has insulated him signicantly from the anti Bush sentiment (the fact he doen’t like Bush may be an added incentive for him). As for Obama , the kid , all kids are L”" platers
EC, come across this one yet? http://wpcomics.washingtonpost.com/client/wpc/ta/2008/05/08/
Indeed Ron,
Look at electoral-vote.com and look at the swing states – very few polls have Obama above 45%.
ron/Ron
‘did you get my 1 line’…alas, no; “gay abandon” , interesting choice of words…do tell…
ESJ/ FINNS
Involved in Political strategies. Don’t know how clever the Repugs are
Take Economy , no 3 issue in US…..
the Dems have had control of Congress , its their fault. house prices down, its the Dems.
Take Iraq , no 4 issue in US….
Unpopular , but Howard proved economy always aces in voters hip pocket , anyway not sure of its vote defining traction.
ADD: Obama to pull troops out 60 days , 61st day , petrol to go from #3 to #5
always good for the battlers votes & hip pocket independents
Left out no 1 and 2 issues , the ADDS on them to, Patriotism (Wright) and National Security (which is the no 1 sleeper always , unlike here
FINNS , no problem , some miracles with some kids mate
Ron
I’ve got a link at 37 to a Rasmussen poll on this issue. The takehome message was that the Repugs are seriously on the nose. The Dems more trusted for the economy, government ethics and corruption, national security and the War of Terror.
BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security.
315
The Finnigans Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:52 pm
#309 – [KR only hates you because you exist] – No, GG, he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff as a:
….You did what?
When?
OK, find the post(s)
You are living in your fetid imagination Finn.
Ron – [FINNS , no problem , some miracles] – yeah, what about Mr. Kevin Rubb and his $41B “slush funds” . How many elections can you win with $41B worth porkies? Brilliant politician Mr. Rubb.
308
Edward StJohn Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
There is a tendency in politics called the trot tendency. Those of the trot tendency have no real policy and ideology – it is a tendency motivated by oppositionism and spite…
….
This sounds like an apt description of the WA Liberal party; at least, in relation to each other, their spite is unreserved.
#337 – if you dont know by now, you will never know. Go and find it yourself.
ESJ (and anyone else ghoulish enough to participate)
Can I propose an addition to our Death List, which was criticised as being in poor taste, sick and irrelevant to a political blog?
We could predict the next politician to be assassinated. This would be quite relevant to this blog and provide an interesting insight into foreign affairs. Perhaps we could name five leaders? I think terrorist leaders should be included, as they are world leaders too. Just ask The Chaser about the famous leader they helped into APEC.
I always assumed it was Kirribilli removals as in removing John Howard now I am thinking it is Kirribilli removals as in a term used by the AFP for “removals” from Kirribilli House of the types you see on the news “protesting” outside Kirribilli House
Cool Diogenes, I am working on it as I type
Yep, Pancho, posted it back on publication date (May
with a comment about an Energiser Bunny in denial.
Wed May 14: Street scene in Wheeling, West Virginia.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=Akyrgksmxq4xVlHMs6ij9zFL6ysC
Ready Diogenes?
It had a smell to it, and yes, those shirts came prepared:
Another point: Most of the media fell hook, line and sinker for the “Iron my shirt!” stunt at a Hillary campaign event in January in New Hampshire, where two scruffy male hecklers were clearly in collusion with her staff. (The signs — including one suspiciously permitted on the stage itself — were carefully positioned and lit, and Hillary had a pat prepared line to draw camera attention to them.) Those dorky guys, at least one with a link to a radio station, are far too young to have the slightest knowledge of an era when women ironed men’s shirts — or when shirts needed ironing at all! Businessmen’s shirts go to the cleaners nowadays, and everyone else’s gear is just tossed into the dryer. That hoax was designed to reawaken the atavistic resentments of older women voters — and it worked.
http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/05/14/tarantella/index1.html
…and watch the clip if you missed it first time around.
Ron: As you are aware the Superdelegates ALL could drop Obama any day they choose right up to & including a convention. They are L plate endorsements (voidable)
Does it get more delusional than this. Why bother posting this tripe on a site like this
340
The Finnigans
Oh, that’s a good game Finns!
Let’s see:
I beat you at chess, and you’ve been narky ever since.
I beat you with arithmetic too
I beat you with actual sentences (many times)
I beat you because, well, I just do
…now, you go back and find the posts.
RCP Sd lead has just been adjusted to +13 to Obama and increase on 1.
Obama’s national average lead over Hillary has also been adjusted upwards from 5.1 this morning to 7.8 this evening.
After today, though, I’d suggest she going to go at least till 3 June.
343 ESJ
Shall we say five names this time tomorrow? I’ll need to sleep on it before putting the kisses of death on our great men and women. Benazir Bhutto would have been a dead cert at the start of the year. And there must be some other morbid bludgers who would have a winning list.
Too many wines tonight. The above should read:
RCP SD lead has just been adjusted to +13 to Obama an increase of 1
Abbas from the Palestinian Authority
Obama in the US
Gaddafi in Libya
That Afghan guy with the coloured dress
Musharraf from Pakistan
How’s this for starters Diogenes?
Sorry kids, but this “dead pool” crap is seriously off topic.
We’re picking assassin’s targets now?? You’re getting repulsive guys. Sheesh.
The world according to GG
Greeensborough Growler Says:
May 14th, 2008 at 6:23 pm
One thing today’s result confirms is that the Obama campaign has stalled
So lets see, ahead in the pledged delegate count, overtaken Hillary in the SD count, needs 30% of delegates to win
If this is stalling, I take it over whatever you call what Hillary is doing
You guys are just plain ridiculous. Please, just tell me HOW/WHY Hillary will get the numbers to win
#348 – just love stewing
349
Ferny Grover
I think we can now safely say two things: Obama will win, and Hillary will stay.
Just what she expects to get out of it is a little unclear (well, apart from the $20m she’s out of pocket), but I guess it will all come out in the wash.
Even if she won’t have to iron it afterwards! (What a tacky bit of vaudeville that was! LOL)
ESJ: I haven’t really done much of a study of the US yet . But I’d suggest that there might be quite a large number of ‘never previously voted’ among Obama voters.
I don’t know how opinion polling works in America: Does everyone’s opinion count or only those who bother to vote? Obama supporters have rallied in the Dem primaries to get many ‘new’ voters along. If he gets the Dem nomination I’d expect those efforts to expand exponentially. Of course, there are probably some ‘red’ states where there will be a lot of barriers placed to registering to vote. I’d expect Dems to be forming legal committees to challenge such fiddles.
But having learnt a thing or two about Republican tactics, I’d be very surprised if Jeb Bush and his cronies got away with their disenfranchising games this time. It wouldn’t surprise me if attempts to violate human rights ended up in court. So maybe Florida will turn blue this time, even if they might really prefer Hillary as their candidate. For similar reasons I’d expect the Republicans to be in a lot of trouble trying to rort the vote in Ohio.
While, as Ron says, McCain may be getting some traction from mostly disliking or disagreeing with Bush, but it will go a lot deeper than that. He’ll have to disown and distance himself from Bush (and Cheney, too) to have any chance. And reverse a lot of policies.
Dio @ 336,
Exactly why the general could be a fascinating contest.
Will McCain’s career-long distance from the Republican mainstream pay off in the most spectacular way possible, as the electorate crushes the Party in the Senate and House but make him POTUS anyway?
Or will his lack of core Party support be what does him in, as traditional Republican voters stay at home?
Will America elect a black man as President?
Will all the independent voters just decide the Republicans have to go, period?
I don’t think the answers are at all obvious. Just because the vast majority of PBers can’t envisage ever voting for McCain, that doesn’t mean the American electorate won’t. The recent by-election results are persuasive, but not yet conclusive in the face of consistently close opinion polling.
Should be a great spectacle.
According to cnn:
38 % of Clinton’s voters said they would vote for Obama in a general election matchup against presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain. 54 % of Obama’s voters said they would vote for Clinton against McCain.
Whilst these numbers I think are much lower than what would happen (they are dampened in the heat of the race), the fact that Obama supporters are more willing to support Hillary says it all about the candidates, their campaigns and their supporters
Above numbers are WV voters
William
As you wish. Just trying to introduce a little levity. There seems to be an unhealthy undercurrent of antagonism at the moment. I will never speak of death lists again.
356
The Finnigans
No Finns, you love talking out your backside, as in:
“he hates me because i caught him out. He tried to big note himself on Bahasa Indonesia, and i call him bluff ”
…now, put up the posts where this incredible (non)event occured, or, STFU.
Go on. Or are you just blowing hard, yet again?
This NEVER happened, except in your tiny mind, Finns.
358
Don Wigan
I think they poll registered voters Don, but someone may know differently.
Actually I distinctly recall it Kirri.
Diogenes
#336
“BUT McCain is not seen as a Repug. He is trusted more than Hillary and Obama on the economy and national security”
Ron : you are too quick. In 2 primarys time Oregon , which Obama will win 10% to 15% , I was going to use that to deflect barbs. Yes the economy per Polling shows economy is a problem for either Dems Candidate due to the Dems congress control since 2006, McCain distanced himself 3 years ago from Bush (Bush also to blame) , meaning he’s the only ‘innocent’. Unbelievable politics. Although McCain has also flip floped on the Bush tax rises, by doing a Howard will use either argument as it suits
National security from an American-centric viewpoint where all my blogs are based on , is a real problem for Obama , which is why Hillary years ago
‘positioned’ herself strongly in that area to insulate against Repug attacks Cost her dearly now) Oama hasn’t , and being a NE Liberal makes his position less defendable on National Security
Finally Diogenes , I’ve always said there were 2 Obama supporter groups here , core Obama supporters & Obamabots. The former now the ObamaRealists
and Dyno fits that , duly inducted with free wine
357 KR
Yes on both counts. Obama’s win is way beyind doubt. The only real issues are:
*When will HRC go away?
*What does she want to go away?
*How much damage can she do in the meantime?
359 Dyno
I agree that the predictions of a walkover for Obama are grossly optimistic, and probably totally irrational. It could easily be like the each-way bet Aussies used to to have here where they voted one party in the lower house and fenced their bet with the opposite in the upper house. The Dems could clean up in the two houses but the “independent maverick” be a counterbalance as President.
360
Andrew
Yep, they really are a different class of people! LOL
I think the most amazing thing is watching Hillary turn into the Alien mother and start drooling over the Democratic party! LOL
Well, she hasn’t quite gone that far yet, but you get the feeling it’s only just around the corner…
Pass the popcorn, here comes the scary bit…
#363 – still love my stewing, pass the popcorns
maybe more like pass the vinegar and salt
Quite so, FG. What exactly is she doing?
Raising money to re-coup her debts? Maybe.
Trying to get VP? Sabotaging the nominee is an odd way to go about it.
Trying to get Obama to pay off her debts? Possible I guess, but why would he agree to do such a silly thing with the money others have given him in good faith.
Thinks she can still win? A highly intelligent woman, whose whole adult life has been steeped in Dem Party politics, thinks this could still happen? – surely not.
365
Edward StJohn
Oh do surprise me!
You share hallucinations with Finn?
Well then, you help him find these posts that do not exist!
The cyber clones share a memory of non-existant events!
Only on PollBludgers.
Monsieur Wigan, welcome! You’ve hit upon a problem. In polling for the primaries they just randomly sample and ask whether the respondent is likely to vote. But in the general election polling, I believe they also try to weight for demography. They assume (from what I’ve read on pollster.com) that if black voters were 10% of the electorate in the last election then they will be 10% next time. But if Obama means they will actually be 13%, this leads to a distortion. The same works with any other group that has been historically low in participation (such as, for instance, young people). The pollsters estimate that the proportions of different ethnic groups, age groups etc will follow established patterns because they have to – they have no data to model rapid change. This isn’t a problem in Australian elections because of compulsorary voting, but I suspect it could be a serious distortion in US elections. There is an assumption, for instance, that the difference between the tight McCain versus Clinton or Obama polls and the way in which Repugs are being trounced in these “special elections” is because McCain isn’t seen as a Republican. But it may just be that the turnout of previously apathetic groups has made the pollers sampling unrepresentative. Apparently the turnout in the Mississippi election today/yesterday was stratospheric.
OK Finns, I’ve called your bluff.
Where are the posts?
Can’t find them?
Won’t defend your assinine claim against me?
Well ladies and gentleman, that speaks for itself.
But Eddy can ‘remember’ them! LOL
Delusional, but joined by a memory.
FIINS
##338
yep very clever our Kevin07 that 41 bil.
FINNS #340
you’ve confused k/r telling him to look. Perhaps you weren’t live at the time but our k/r implied putting everyone’s posts onto his computer. Can you imagine the time job you’ve created ?
FINNS re oblivious Andrew #360 , can one see the Obama problem, a yes will do
Ron, you dont mean my stalker parrot is back. The one that DEMANDS i answer his question.
Tues May 13; Gouldie, here’s one for you.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AlRFh5.URw_kyBDouRwAwStW_b4F
Wed May 14:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=At6s.E9__P8nFAfwh6amIDdX_b4F
Calamari Cartoon propaganda:
Then: (scroll down a smidge)
http://www.hyperhistory.org/index.php?option=displaypage&Itemid=751&op=page
And Now:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=ArS2U_zWxMsKtCO3vXMoZ2oDwLAF
Seems the White Man’s Burden is never ending.
Well ever since they skedaddled from Europe, anyway.
Hey, c’mon, whoever said hegemony didn’t have it’s hang-ups?
374
Robert Bollard
“Apparently the turnout in the Mississippi election today/yesterday was stratospheric”
…and the white honkey got a good black turnout because, well the Republicans had done him the favour of reminding them he was for Obama’s team! LOL
These record turnouts and new enrollments are seriously messing with the percieved house rules.
Republicans must be sh!tting themselves when Cheney turns up to half a small room and their candidate gets trounced in deepest red territory.
377
The Finnigans
Hang on:
YOU ACCUSED ME!
But you will not provide any proof of your great vanquishing of me at Bahasa, which is incredibly funny because I neither speak it, nor have ever claimed to! LOL
If you can’t substantiate your ludicrous claim about ‘beating’ me over something, maybe you should just skulk off.
Or aren’t you man enough to hold your reputation here higher than that?
What next Kirri are you going to challenge Finns to a duel?
KR @ 380,
Sorry, but who cares?
378
Enemy Combatant
Classic cartoon from the Bulletin Ecky, and more than famous since. Been a while since I’ve seen it, but I noticed the tentacle with pak ah-pu and it reminds me of the old ocker expression for something which was an untidy, undecipherable mess: “it looks like a bloody pak ah-pu ticket”.
Now I know I shouldn’t, but there are quite a few rambling posts around here for which I’d dealy love to resurrect that old saying!
(For those who may not know, outside the Chinese gambling clubs in Sydney the streets were littered with ‘pak ah-pu’ tickets, which were, of course, in Chinese)
381
Edward StJohn
You lost last our last one I seem to remember Eddy.
What did William call your ridiculous claim against me?
Or, have you ‘conventiently’ forgotten?
‘conveniently’
382
Dyno
Who cares that Finn is a craven little creature who makes silly accusations he can’t back up?
I dunno, nobody probably! LOL
Superdelegate Update …
DNC Christine Marques (DA) and Rep. Peter Visclosky (IN) have endorced Obama. Christine represents 0.5 of a vote while Peter carries the full kit – bringing the count up 1.5 to 285.5 (that’s 15 a delegate lead or a 22 delegate lead with the Pelosi factor included).
Obama: 291.5 (285.5+6)
Clinton: 269.5 (270.5-1)
Now who was it again that was talking about a stalled campaign?
Has anyone been checking the RCP figures regularly? The SDs are cascading to Obama something chronic. I grabbed the figures from RCP and had a fiddle on the Forbes calculator, entering the most conservative estimate I could of Obama’s chances in the remaining primaries and found that he only needs 14% of the remaining SDs to win (down from 20% earlier TODAY). The toast is burning; somone call the fire brigade!
Oh, and by the way, Clinton won West Virginia and is almost in heaven. Well, she IS on life support…
Don’t get cocky Catrina….you know we are only days away from all these Supers coming to their senses and on mass switching their votes to the loser of the campaign.
Snap Catrina!
You are right HarryH this was brilliantly predicted as early as last Wednesday by our very own Kirri.
Sorry for the hubris Harry. But I can’t help it. Go the Trot Tendency! Apropos of which, in the wake of Mississippi district 1, I take this opportunity to remind ESJ of his pledge, if Texas voted for Obama in November, to “join the ISO”.
Comrade Bob you’ll keep. Note you did not choose to answer the Kronstadt question from earlier today?
ESJ – I’ve spent most of the afternoon in various classrooms. If I missed a question then I’m sorry. (Not really, as, knowing you, it was probably facetious).
ps, I told you to stop calling me comrade. I’m also not “Bob”.
Wouldn’t it be a little slice of Heaven if Obi appointed Richardson VP(just to stick it to Billary) and with the help of AA’s and Hispanics won Texas(just to stick it to Bush).
Both sides of the deceitful alliance, that for the last 20 years has divided the USA into 2 halves for their own fifedoms, hit with one stone.
I am hurt Mr Bollard, refer my 18.
HarryH at 389:
Harry, yep – got the giggles when I read that one.
“Portland Tribune Poll: Obama Way Ahead in Oregon
A new Portland Tribune poll in Oregon finds Sen. Barack Obama “has amassed a nearly insurmountable lead” in advance of next week’s primary.
Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton by 20 points, 55% to 35%, among likely Democratic voters.
Said pollster Tim Hibbetts: “Barring a disaster, Barack Obama’s going to win Oregon, and he may win it very big. This is the widest lead that I’ve seen of any poll for Obama in Oregon. I’d be shocked if Obama didn’t win here.”
http://politicalwire.com/
In Oregon there are 52 dels up for grabs. Obi’s share there will more than balance any del. pick ups by HRC in Ky.
Of course then there will only be a tiny bunch remaining from which Senator What About Me can hope to bridge an impossible divide.
Meanwhile the beat of Catrina’s SD-Updates goes on!!
“The drums, the drums, if only they’d quit pounding on those goddamn drums!”
——-Senator H.R-Clinton after a recent visit with Mayor Ray Nagin to Congo Square, NOLA.
Robert #1477
“They (Robert’s my arguments) should be flawed by my foolish extremism.
But the name of the game is spotting, exposing, and arguing against said flaws”
Ron: I’m about to.
Robert , you continue to either innocently misunderstand or tactically misquote my comments and your lack of , or disingenuous reply may answer. I will put this as bluntly & as succinctly.
Before addressing the political flaw in your first post #1446 , I’ll address your tactics
Firstly , you throw in red herring barbs:.
1/ Robert #1477 “my (apparently equal) sin of being an “academic”.False. The fact you are an academic has never been an issue or barrier to me with you. Some of my best friends incidently are academics (& some tradesmen) so what , and I in any event admire their achievement. The comment was very disingenuous of you because you know I make references to some Obamabots having academia inspired politically correct /symbolism based/elitist thinking (not “elite”) impractical policys. This academic group i have no time/respect for
2/ Robert #1477 “oh he’s a socialist so he must be wrong”. Not correct.I don’t. Your barb however is often used as a debating diversion to which I always say ‘show me the quote’ but for NOW , lets back to the point. If you thought I implied this, answer unwitting
3/ Robert #1459 “you really want to take a breather on your occasional red
baiting”
(a) False , no red baiting , the baiting was against those ‘academia dreamy non ‘reds’. My blog #1452 in part said “WV voted against a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t was rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters. But what do you do , try & explain why sensible people reject such looney left ideas”. The ‘looney left’ views I was clearly referring to are in the same sentence ie. “left Liberal Democrat & not related to ‘reds’. Disingenuous. No red baiting there
(b) My blog #1452 I said “NO , try to explain away voters rejection of your lefty ideas” (by saying WV loss was as its all racist).
Whilst point (a) clearly referred to the ‘left Liberal Democrats’ & their looney leftishness , this quote I acknowledge referred to your ‘left’ political leanings of anti US & anti workering class as ‘morons & racists’ for voting for a Hillary or a Repug rather than voting further ‘left’. That’s my perception , but No red baiting implied , just ‘lefty ideas’(Obama’s) & yours general ‘lefty ideas (different to them) were rejected by WV voters & you were using racism as a reason)
4/ Robert #1477 “a Tory like your mate ESJ”. Wicked , Robert.You’re a socialist & you’re my bloging mate also , OK. I’m happy to debate ESJ (clever, respectful of my alternative views to his & civilised to me) at any time , & happy to with you also. Even though re both of you I have profound policy differences, there’s no personal animosity with either of you todate. (as an aside , thought you were abit discourteous challenging me on Truman’s decision, & then after me giving a detailed 4 page reply , silence , maybe you missed my reply)
Finally , the political flaw in your original #1446 was its reliance on your perception of WV cultural attitudes. ie. as if they were a Southern Repug ‘red’ State who voted for the ‘white’ Hillary over the ‘black’ Obama. My point is the State is a pro Dems State , Dems winning 8 of the last 12 , and so its not a Repug ‘red’ racist State. Furthermore i was saying WV statistically generally do NOT vote for a “left Liberal Democrat”, but will vote for a ‘centre’ Dem generally as per above 12 POTUS elections (Gore the exception by 6%). Kerry a ‘left Liberal Democrat’ got thrashed by 13% and your ‘friend’ another ‘left Liberal Democrat McGovern 1972 got thrahed by 27%. Note just 4 years earlier in 1968 the Dems had won WV by 9%.
The psephological evidence is voters vote NO to a “NE left liberal type Democrat”. Obama is one so Obama go thrashed due to his political leanings by the ‘centre’ Hillary , and his race was not the cause as you implied. The fact Hillary a NON ‘left Liberal Democrat leads on polls by 5% in WV itself over the Repug McCain only reinforces my point.That was my view supported by stats and not related to your socialism at all & continues to be my view. Over to you
For the top of the page, a follow-up note on the Christine Schon Marques endorsement of Barack Obama for president – I like her words – and as our friends in America would say – I would like to share this you:
ESJ – regarding the Constituent Assembly, read State and Revolution and learn what the word “Soviet” originally meant. Regarding Kronstadt there are two arguments. One is recent research by historians (mostly non-Marxist – and based on the now-available archives) which has confirmed that the idea of the 1921 rebellion in the naval base as some sort of anarchist uprising is a myth. The revolutionary sailors of 1917 had gone off to fight in the Civil War and their peasant replacements, pissed off by the Bolshevik regime’s requisition of grain to feed Petrograd, rose in revolt. With the British Navy blockading a few k’s off the Red Army crushed the revolt. It was (and this is NOT controversial) one of the triggers for Lenin’s retreat to the NEP later that year.
In any case, even if the myth of anarchist sailors dying whilst singing The Internationale is true (apart from why it would be of interest to a Tory like you!), to me it doesn’t matter. If the myth was true, it would only prove that the inevitable degeneration of the Revolution, once it failed to spread out of backward Russia – once the revolutions in Europe, and Gernmany in particular, were crushed – began a bit earlier.
That’s all I have to say on the subject. It’s more than you deserve. It’s also (ever so slightly) off topic, and I apologise to fellow bludgers for that.
Robert
#1477 (Ron 400 (bottom of last page)
“They (Robert’s my arguments) should be flawed by my foolish extremism.
But the name of the game is spotting, exposing, and arguing against said flaws”
Ron: I’m about to.
Robert , you continue to either innocently misunderstand or tactically misquote my comments and your lack of , or disingenuous reply may answer. I will put this as bluntly & as succinctly.
Before addressing the political flaw in your first post #1446 , I’ll address your tactics
Firstly , you throw in red herring barbs:.
1/ Robert #1477 “my (apparently equal) sin of being an “academic”.False. The fact you are an academic has never been an issue or barrier to me with you. Some of my best friends incidently are academics (& some tradesmen) so what , and I in any event admire their achievement. The comment was very disingenuous of you because you know I make references to some Obamabots having academia inspired politically correct /symbolism based/elitist thinking (not “elite”) impractical policys. This academic group i have no time/respect for
2/ Robert #1477 “oh he’s a socialist so he must be wrong”. Not correct.I don’t. Your barb however is often used as a debating diversion to which I always say ‘show me the quote’ but for NOW , lets back to the point. If you thought I implied this, answer unwitting
3/ Robert #1459 “you really want to take a breather on your occasional red
baiting”
(a) False , no red baiting , the baiting was against those ‘academia dreamy non ‘reds’. My blog #1452 in part said “WV voted against a “left Liberal Democrat” Obama whose politically correct lefty progressive bull….t was rejected by WV , as it is by MOST Australian voters. But what do you do , try & explain why sensible people reject such looney left ideas”. The ‘looney left’ views I was clearly referring to are in the same sentence ie. “left Liberal Democrat & not related to ‘reds’. Disingenuous. No red baiting there
(b) My blog #1452 I said “NO , try to explain away voters rejection of your lefty ideas” (by saying WV loss was as its all racist).
Whilst point (a) clearly referred to the ‘left Liberal Democrats’ & their looney leftishness , this quote I acknowledge referred to your ‘left’ political leanings of anti US & anti workering class as ‘morons & racists’ for voting for a Hillary or a Repug rather than voting further ‘left’. That’s my perception , but No red baiting implied , just ‘lefty ideas’(Obama’s) & yours general ‘lefty ideas (different to them) were rejected by WV voters & you were using racism as a reason)
4/ Robert #1477 “a Tory like your mate ESJ”. Wicked , Robert.You’re a socialist & you’re my bloging mate also , OK. I’m happy to debate ESJ (clever, respectful of my alternative views to his & civilised to me) at any time , & happy to with you also. Even though re both of you I have profound policy differences, there’s no personal animosity with either of you todate. (as an aside , thought you were abit discourteous challenging me on Truman’s decision, & then after me giving a detailed 4 page reply , silence , maybe you missed my reply)
Finally , the political flaw in your original #1446 was its reliance on your perception of WV cultural attitudes. ie. as if they were a Southern Repug ‘red’ State who voted for the ‘white’ Hillary over the ‘black’ Obama. My point is the State is a pro Dems State , Dems winning 8 of the last 12 , and so its not a Repug ‘red’ racist State. Furthermore i was saying WV statistically generally do NOT vote for a “left Liberal Democrat”, but will vote for a ‘centre’ Dem generally as per above 12 POTUS elections (Gore the exception by 6%). Kerry a ‘left Liberal Democrat’ got thrashed by 13% and your ‘friend’ another ‘left Liberal Democrat McGovern 1972 got thrahed by 27%. Note just 4 years earlier in 1968 the Dems had won WV by 9%.
The psephological evidence is voters vote NO to a “NE left liberal type Democrat”. Obama is one so Obama go thrashed due to his political leanings by the ‘centre’ Hillary , and his race was not the cause as you implied. The fact Hillary a NON ‘left Liberal Democrat leads on polls by 5% in WV itself over the Repug McCain only reinforces my point.That was my view supported by stats and not related to your socialism at all & continues to be my view. Over to you
As the nomination comes to a wrap (or maybe a catfight with the DNC, who knows!), it’s good to remember the lessons of our betters:
Adam Says:
January 27th, 2008
It doesn’t matter whether the FL and MI delegates are seated or not. Clinton will sweep the board on Super Tuesday and thereafter it will be a procession. Obama and Edwards will probably stay in the race out of spite against Clinton, but the party machines will fall into line behind Clinton once it is clear she has the nomination wrapped up.
…the ‘out of spite’ bit is 100%, if you change some names around! LOL
Ron at 403
You know your repeating yourself don’t you?
It’s not a good look.
Oh, by the way, while looking at some PB archives, I came across a gem. I thought you would be interested in this little artifact form the grave …
Ron Says:
February 11th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
*twinkle*
Oh, don’t you like that term of coronation:
“procession”?
It was, a bloody procession of defeats!
just replace form with from
KR at 406
Not to mention a procession of defection!
Oh, and one more because it shows crystal balls can be unreliable:
Once Clinton is the nominee the black community will be quick to get on the bandwaggon. The want the Repubs out as much as anyone and more than most. Clinton will get the usual 80-90% of the black vote come November.
…oooooooops!
408
Catrina
Yes, that too.
Those Supers are right tarts eh? Show ‘em a majority and they’re anybody’s! LOL
KR at 409
It’s like having a free pass in a lolly shop!
This one’s worth a giggle:
Greeensborough Growler Says:
January 28th
ESJ,
Don’t be a prat all your life.
Dr. Judge Growler
________________________
Quite clearly Eddy didn’t bother to take GG’s advice!
KR at 412
I have a better one than that!
Ron: February 25th, 2008 at 4:20 pm
Oh my, where did that come from!
Article from the SMH… an interesting look at what some people say is the Death Watch:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/us-election/bcommentb-dana-milbank/2008/05/14/1210444530303.html
413
Catrina
Yeah, it was a one night stand! (Hence the guilt! LOL)
He’s been doing a Bill Clinton ever since, as in “I did not go over the top for that candidate” type denial.
414
OzFrog
She’s got ’style’ that Hillary:
She pretends to spot an old friend, points and gives another wave; in fact, she waves at an aide she had been talking with on the plane minutes earlier.
…pining for the fiords indeed! LOL
KR at 415
LOL, yep … but, just between you and me and to his credit, I agree with Ron’s position of delegate maths.
February 26th, 2008 at 10:02 am
“and as our friends in America would say – I would like to share this you:”
It’s so totally reassuring to know where you’re coming from on this one, Catrina:)
I really think it’s SO CUTE the way you Ahh-seees tark!
Kirri at 404, I’m afraid Adam’s swing and miss record as a pinch hitter is even worse than that of the gentle, Rain. Still, with comprehensive achive access and a mind like a steel-trap(well, most times), you are plainly not a man to be trifled with.
This time next week, as we choke on our tofu, we’ll be picking over the bones of Oregon and Caintuck. Yummy.
418
Enemy Combatant
Yes sir, it goes to show that it takes an expert to get things really wrong! In fairness, it was the recieved wisdom, the paradigm du jour, and everyone tried to fit the data to the preconception.
With varying degrees of non-success.
I wouldn’t have minded, but being an ‘ignorant loathing leftie’, I tend to take notice when I and fellow bludgers are getting p!ssed on from some ivory tower.
Anway, it’s fun trawling the archives, and I had a good chuckle over a few of yours I might add.(That’s a non-pejorative chuckle by the way, just in case…)
417
Catrina
He was so succinct in those days!
I really do wonder sometimes as I’m scrolling past those posts of late (as yes, I have a confession: I don’t actually read them, would you believe it?).
Bewilderbeasts.
That’s what it is, a bad case of stampeding bewilderbeasts!
Two more supers in the pipeline. DNC guys are still asleep so validation is not available. What makes this one a little interesting is that the endorsement is on YouTube from two supers representing CollegeDemocrats for America. No prize for guessing the candidate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VARYagkoAQo
Here’s one final, counter-intuitive observation.
Remember Hillary wanting to gouge out her gas tax holiday from the oil companies?
Well, not from the refineries she couldn’t:
Experts say the refiners are caught in a double bind. The price of their raw material, oil, is rising because of strong global demand. At the same time, consumption of gasoline in the United States is falling as a result of slower economic growth and consumer efforts to conserve.
However much the companies would like to raise gasoline prices enough to pass along the full increases in oil, analysts say they have been unable to do it. Oil prices doubled in the past year, while wholesale gasoline prices rose a mere 39 percent.
…and ouch, they got their margins squeezed in a vice. Considering that refining capacity is very restrained in the States, it’s hard to see how they’ll attract the investment to expand it under such conditions.
Hard to imagine this part of the industry was plunkin’ for Hillary! LOL
421
Catrina
So Catrina, by your reckoning, back of the envelope even, how many more sleeps until, you know, the magic number?
9
Ratttling the tin:
Mrs. Clinton, her campaign sent a text message to supporters’ cell phones less than an hour after the polls closed, hailing the victory and urging them to donate money at her Web site. A similar pitch arrived by e-mail two minutes later.
NYT
KR, expect the archives will be well worth a geeze as the campaign rolls on.
Anyway, don’t let the blighters get you down. You match them every time and then some.
Colbert’s still got his zing. BillO sure is schmuckus maximus. Remember the time Obi blew him off for an interview on the trail earlier this year? He dummy spat major. Obi doen’t need to deal with dick-heads like BillO to become POTUS and it irks him as it would an egocentric jock who missed out on a root on prom night.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/stephen-colbert-imitates_n_101641.html
424
Catrina
Off to sleep for me, and tomorrow, it’ll be just 8.
Night.
KR at 427
G’night Kirri!
426
Enemy Combatant
yeah, they’re priceless those archives.
Thanks for the encouragement award, but they don’t really get to me more than the time it takes to type a reply. Lower order irritants on life’s scale of crappola.
My main irritation has been a PC meltdown of massive proportions, hard drive (main) and motherboard. I had to get a rescue on the main drive to recover files although my work files were on a back-up drive.
So after a complete re-instal of the OS, I downloaded Windows Explorer V7 and it siezed up the whole box and dice!
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaargh!
Easier to format drive and start again!
Now that, is SERIOUSLY annoying. Eddy and his doppleganger are for amusement between bouts of screaming at an inanimate object! LOL
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Superdelegate Update
Its for HILLARY. An add-on super Vicky Harwell (TN) has endorsed Clinton bringing here numbers up to 271 and knocking Obama lead back to 21.5.
Catrina
#405
1/ Tonight 15/5/08 you quoted on 24 words allegedly “mine” from 11/2/08 ! ONLY 6 of those 24 words are mine. Therefore you are an intellectual fraud.
2/ Like the coward k/r , you deliberately included Dyno’s words from his #60 blog as mine. My blog makes this obvious. Not only did I quote in my #66
Dyno’s blog no #60 & his words as his, but Dyno’s blog was only 6 blogs earlier so in addition to a fraud , you are also either amateurish or pig headed or both
3/ Aside the blogs that night were mostly (17) about the FL & MI delegates being excluded , hence Dyno’s (not mine) words. Again incompetent research
4/ , FINNS said you blog all day & all night and that you should get a life. Someone else said you need a boyfriend. But now we find you not only do you blog all day & night but the rest of your time is spent sifting through thousands of blogs back to February 4 months ago ! , almost like someone every night miserably going through a rubbish bin , timewise.
5/ FINNS has many Parrots including you but now we have a shared Parrot
and he can name you as he’s an expert at Parrot blogers like you. Although a name with the last 3 letters ‘wit’ appeals as does the first 4 letter ‘frau’
What your problem is , other than those blatantly obvious above , is I exposed your intellectual deficiencies. I called Obama (correctly) a phony & said that the Obambot wing only of the Obama supporters (correctly) were dreamy people who did no research on him and that all foolishly bought the cubboard without looking inside (& still won’t check despite the Wright public warning)
Whereas whilst I bloged here strong support for Obama , I ALWAYS treated Obama as just another Pollie , with my political antenna tuned for inconsistences. When Obama did so , I did my research & the more I checked the bigger fraud I found he was, in so many areas. So like any objective intelligent person I ditched him & told all blogers here including you.So any pre ditching comments I made are before I found out his ‘message’ was a con
FINNS , Parrot naming rights (above) are yours my expert Amigo.
Oh, ouch, I wounded!
Ron, think about it, I have a good reason to be up late – what’s your?
ROTFLOL
Good Morning, it’s time to put the man from Showy River out of his misery and let him eat his own vomit.
1. On April 17th, 2008 at 10:41 am, he wrote: [Salamat pagi, (good morning, in a lingo the kid can speak), bludgers one and all] – implying and big noting that he and the kid share the same lingo, whatever that was.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=840&cp=4#comment-143893
2. To which i replied with a compliment to the kid:
#362 – Kirribilli Removals Says: [Salamat pagi, (good morning, in a lingo the kid can speak)] The kid is “jago ngomong, tapi seperti Tong kosong nyaring bunyinya”. Selamat sore.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=840&cp=6#comment-144066
3. Now The man from Showy River said:
377 The Finnigans – Hang on: YOU ACCUSED ME!
But you will not provide any proof of your great vanquishing of me at Bahasa, which is incredibly
funny because I neither speak it, nor have ever claimed to! LOL
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=856&cp=4#comment-152266
4. Which is a response to my post where i wrote:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=856&cp=4#comment-152186
Please note, i never ACCUSED him that he speaks the language. I only accused him of big noting and
pretending.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=55wWiFi6BFo
Have a good day to all.
It appears Edwards is going to endorse Obama.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/14/obama-to-make-major-announcement
P.S. Would that mean Obama gets Edwards pledged delegates?
Edwards’ PDs are entitled to make their own decision, but you’d have to thin k that there’s a fair chance they’ll break more for Barry than Hills
Edwards + Obama was 47% of the vote in Florida , vs 50% for Clinton
http://us.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
Could be some solution re: seating Michigan and Florida in the offing as well ?
End of the beginning , I think.
Now we get 6 months of why McCain is more electable than Obama
435
The Finnigans
Your fevered imagination at work early today I see FinnS! LOL
So recap: I make a jocular “g’day”, as in “bon jour”, but in Indonesian because Obama presumably speaks more than a few words of it.
You reply, with something in Indonesian which, and now you say that this somehow proves that I was showing off??????
Hang about, who was ’showing off’?
Your fevered imagination, should it continue, will warrant medical attention; it may be a serious condition.
439
Kevin
“Now we get 6 months of why McCain is more electable than Obama”
Oh, dear, I fear you may have something there! LOL
Edwards and Obama appearing together tonight in Michigan, it’s going to carried live on the U.S News shows: a pretty significant announcement.
A blow to Hillary, she was very actively courting John/Elizabeth Edwards for their endorsement! I’d presume the Clintons now will publicly denigrate Edwards, they did the same to Bill Richardson previously.
Kirribilli Removals: I’ll make a bold prediction, McCain is completely pulverised in November, the Republicans lose big in the house and the senate.
If that happens, I’ll get blind drunk!
Edwards, AG then?
Ah, politics is wonderful, attracts all kinds of people (and some seriously deranged spectators! LOL).
But Edwards was never going to endorse Hill:
“You can’t just trade corporate Republicans for corporate Democrats,” he told audiences frequently, an attack aimed at Mrs. Clinton.
Guess it was just a matter of keeping his powder dry.
Well, there goes the whoopeee moment of West Virginia.
(I wonder which stage of metamorphosis Hillary is at now, on her way to full Alien mother???)
Morning Bludgers,
Well Obama took his West Virginian lumps and the SDs applied their ministrations. His SD lead over Hillary is now 14 according to RCP and his total PD lead is now 153.
Meanwhile Obama’s national poll average lead over Hillary is 7.2 – a rise of +7 over the last week.
West Virginia? What West Virginia?
443
Progressive
YEEEEES!
And I’ll join ya!
I actually feel slightly sorry for McCain (only a teensy bit).
Bush did him over with thuggery in 2004, and now he’s climbed back up only to get run over by a wave of anti-Republicanism that’s like a freakin’ tsunami.
Ouch!
What bad timing!
I felt it late last year, that Obama was going to find the ‘change button’ to signal an end to the perpetual ‘fear button’ and the dreary politics of slime that Rove had engineered as the perpetual modus operandi.
We had our little moment of this with Rudd’s victory over Howard’s dreary government. Obama had the same thing written all over him, and he has not disappointed.
Exciting times ahead.
I think she has accepted her fate, she just commented that it would be a “terrible mistake” to vote McCain over Obama, and she’s recently made some conciliatory comments re: working for the eventual democratic nominee.
How that is reconciled with her other comments (paraphrased as poor white voters will prefer me etc) I don’t know, other than maybe she was just being as competetive as she knew how, and took it too far.
As Edwards endorses Obama, Hillary tells Wolf Blitzer is that the reason she wont quit is- THE VOTERS. THEY wont end this race, citing a survey that 64% of Dem voters want the race to continue. And, I thought it was all about Hillary’s EGO at this point. Damn those voters, it’s a shame she’s behind on every measure of those voters’ intentions, and she cant catch up. EGO
Great news! Live blog of the appearance here: http://www.michiganmessenger.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1259
EDWARDS:
I hope he is AG.
From the New York Times:
Updated | 6:37 p.m. GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. — John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina who bowed out of the presidential race in January, endorsed Senator Barack Obama at a rally here tonight.
Officials announced the news of Mr. Edwards’s endorsement shortly after Mr. Obama landed here late this afternoon. The campaign timed it to coincide with the start of the major evening newscasts, which would have otherwise focused on Senator Hillary Clinton’s landslide victory in West Virginia, which raised new questions about Mr. Obama’s strength with white working class voters.
….
Terry McAuliffe, Clinton campaign chairman, made the following statement today in response to Mr. Edwards’ endorsement:
“We respect John Edwards, but as the voters of West Virginia showed last night, this thing is far from over.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/edwards-to-endorse-obama/index.html?hp
Mornin’ All,
Oh, what jolly good news to wake up to! Spiffing!
Edwards endorses The Kid. Be back after soaking up the Sep punditry on it.
You little bewdy!!!
One step closer for The Kid, one step closer for “We The People”.
No way the GOPpers will win NC in Novenber after the this son of a “working family” made good has given this imprimatur.
Feel the History happen on your monitors, before your own eyes, in the comfort and privacy of your own home (or internet cafe, or where the hell ever on your port-a-PC)!!
Message to Terry McAuliffe: it was over weeks ago!
West Virginia means frigging zero in the greater scheme of things!
Obama/Edwards great together on the stump, I agree Edwards has probably got himself the Attorney General job at least in an Obama administration.
I’m just waiting for the inevitable attack from Hillary and her surrogates.
EC – didn’t Bush win NC last time, when Edwards was running for Veep???
Must have been given his two jetskis.
Indeed, Ferny, but Obby ain’t John Kerry then, is he? Been a bit of “closure” and “moving on” since then. Will need to take a closer look. A shot of good coffee and a splash of great news does tend to bring out the hip-shooter in me, though:)
Obama has already mobilised the black and college votes in a way that Kerry never could. Add Edwards and his union connections to the picture on the ground, and NC is well in play.
Love your optimism, EC. Hillary is certainly expressing her disappointment that Edwards has chosen The Black Prince over the Rightful Queen and it’s no secret that she was actively courting his endorsement.
His endorsement can only help Obama, but as an outsider looking in, I can’t see that Edwards has pulled too many votes, either in 2004 or in his campaign this time. The press is arguing that Edwards will help Obama connect with the blue collar vote. I’d like to see some evidence that Edwards has more pull with that demographic than Obama – but I don’t see it.
In response to Edwards’ endorsement, I believe he may instruct his 19 pledged delegates to cast their vote for Obama. As Robert Bollard says, they’re free to make their own decision, but I believe that more often than not they tend to go with their candidate’s instructions.
Why is the HRC campaign issuing this unmitigated garbage, at the same time as apparently trying to engineer a dignified withdrawal? It’s bipolar behaviour.
“Clinton campaign: We’re Ahead in the Popular Vote”
Count the ways. You can count the popular vote 4 ways, and Clinton is behind on all of them. But she has found a new way:
The only scenario in which Clinton would appear to have the lead is a fifth scenario that only counts primary states – including both Florida and Michigan – and excludes any votes cast in the party’s caucuses.
‘A fifth scenario’? – No, I think she’s now entering the Fifth Dimension.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/14/clinton-campaign-were-ahead-in-the-popular-vote/
The whole ‘popular vote’ argument is a furphy. If popular vote mattered then why bother with delegates? The nomination could be purely decided on who received the most votes (and even on this Obama would win!). Trouble is – it isn’t. It’s decided by delegates. Next!
The Fifth Dimension for your enjoyment.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS5DZMb9F0k
They look like refugees from PB.
Florida at 1/2 vote numbers, given this development, would likely be:
Clinton 52.5
Obama/Edwards 40
That of course is assuming that all of Edwards’ 6.5 go to Obama (probably a big assumption given Floridians ability to surprise).
462 GG – A blast from the past that song! I checked the Up, Up and Away theory on Wiki, and the concept of the Fifth Dimension in physics involves considering the reason for the relative weakness of gravity. In Clinton’s case this is seen in the feet hardly touching the ground, and she obviously wishes to breathe thinner air.
The Dems should chip in and get her a plastic patio chair and a dozen helium balloons, and she will be Up, Up and Away in no time.
Some scientists have speculated that the graviton, a particle thought to carry the force of gravity, may “leak” into the fifth or higher dimensions which would explain how gravity is significantly weaker than the other three fundamental forces. – Wikipedia
Ferny at 458: “I’d like to see some evidence that Edwards has more pull with that demographic than Obama – but I don’t see it.”
They both fought hard for Johnny Coiffure’s endorsement, Ferny. If Edwards had endorsed HRC today after the MSM spin on the WV primary, it would have stalled Obby’s momentum somewhat and allowed the “white-anting” of The Kid to continue.
“While the strategy ultimately fell short, Edwards’ populist message and support among middle and lower-middle class voters pushed him to a second-place finish in Iowa and his current status as a spokesman for that often-overlooked bloc. (Despite having dropped out of the race months ago, Edwards still received seven percent of the vote last night in West Virginia, not a bad showing when considering that Obama took just 26 percent.)”
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/05/edwards_endorsement_what_it_me.html
JV at 460, it really is incredible how the Clinton camp continue to try to fudge the numbers. Even if she WAS ahead in the popular vote (which she ISNT), its the DELEGATE count that matters. And if her (phony) popular vote argument was getting any traction, the SDs would not be breaking for Obama
JV,
A sort of 21st Century “Mary Poppins” effect?
I can see the faces of the PB Obamaphiles now as Hillary dispenses “a spoon full of sugar to make the medicine go down”.
That’s right GG – with Bill Clinton playing Bert, Dick Van Dyke’s original role. In the story Bert is retained to clean the chimney and mind the children, which is fairly analogous to Bill’s role in the campaign. Supercalifragilistic!
464
jaundiced view
The Large Hadron Collider is getting close to commissioning, CERN’s really BIG toy, and they hope to discover the Higgs boson. This is the particle that generates (they’ve theorised for 40 years) the Higgs field in which all particles that have mass react, like it was treacle. Particles like photons do not, and hence can travel through space at the speed of light.
This solves the profound question as to how mass-less particles can clump together and produce mass.
Finding the Higgs is the Rosetta stone of the Standard Model, and will be a truly momentous event.
KR, any chance you could branch out into HillBill Removals??
KR @ 469 [how mass-less particles can clump together and produce mass.]
I presume this would be the same ‘Higgs boson’ that has given the super delegates their current ability to COALESCE around Obama, producing irrestistible delegate mass.
470
Andrew
Haha!
HillBilly Removals has a nice ring to it! LOL
But look mate, after dragging Jannette out (it took three men and one with a syringe full of sedatives!) of Kirribilli House, I’m not sure we’d be up to removing the Clintons from their dream of the Oval office! Hillary makes Mrs Howard look like, well, Mrs Howard. We’re talking about Alien Mutha stuff, that’s a job for Ripley!
FINNS
#435
See you caught out the skite k/r big noting himsel. Nailed him with his own words
Like new k/r title , man from showy river
Of course big noting himself is apt you know for k/r being a little man & that.
No orignal Obama ideas , not even lingo as you proved
Wed May 14: Chez Obama; a furtive knock is heard upon the front do’.
“Michelle, honey, you want me to get that?”
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AuCeUY.7X.uyjy1F828bI40VvTYC
Wed May 14: The young bros get deep into Boondock Bludgerdom.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=A0WTUf4jhCtI8DsA4ycDwLAF
Wed May 14: Havn’t you heard!? Senator McCain’s an Environmentalist now.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Aq3M.fLioMSLw9lMIk5k3JZN_b4F
HillBilly Removals. Ahhhhh, that’s beautiful!
471
jaundiced view
He sure is getting some gravitational force going now JV.
Edwards picked his moment eh? WHile Hillary’s up in Apalachia doin’ the ‘mountain momma’ routine, he lobs in for Obama!
Nice timing.
Hillary’s square dance went instantly rhomboidal, and the fiddler’s strings snapped and the banjos fell mute.
Now the question is: what does Edwards want? And poor old Hill is left mid doh-see-doh looking like the proverbial shag on a rock.
Nice timing.
KR & JV,
I thought gravity was supposed to bring you back to earth.
No evidence of that among the Obamaphiles.
473
Ron
You’re a right dipstick aren’t you Ron?
He ‘PROVED’ one thing Ron, and that is that he ‘imagined’ something in his head and then reported it here like it was fact! LOL
You are a very, very silly person.
For someone who tells us EVERY day that you have skills to examine ‘evidence’, you suddenly drop any pretence of using them!
Finns finds a post where HE showed off using a foriegn language and somehow that ‘proves’ that I did!
You are bizarrely deranged Ron, if that is your level of comprehension.
EC – Love the small print behind the door in the Oliphant cartoon -That sweet little hard-working blue collar white girl from next door
KR – Yes, the endorsement was timed no doubt to put WVirginia into perspective, if it wasn’t already. Edwards as Attorney-General surely?
476
Greensborough Growler
Come on GG, our rocket will land, he’ll be coming down on gravity’s rainbow, and land right on target: McCain.
We have reached maximum velocity, powered up into the stratosphere, reached maximum altitude, and now suspended high above the earth, Brennshluss, the engines are cut, and the deadly descent to the Republican’s ground zero is traced out ineluctably through space and time all the way to a day in November.
Pass the popcorn…
Looks like the threat by the black Democrats they’ll desert the Party unless Obama is handed the Nominee has claimed another scalp , John Edwards. No wonder the SD’s have been endorsing Obama. Win the Nominee on the back of 90% black vote & try to win POTUS with the same play , big black turnout ploy to racially manipulate the system.
k/k the Windscreens Obrien kid & his glass mirrors , still self admiring himself
Ron
Wouldn’t the fact that Obama leads on every measure perhaps be influencing people more than their collective fear of a deserting sector which i think Finns pointed out was only 10% of the vote?
Here is some of the analysis of the Mississippi by election:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051403186.html?hpid=topnews
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-05-14-gopfallout_N.htm
http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN1454237220080514
Even the Republicans aren’t spinning the results.
I make the pledge that I will not read or respond any more to Ron’s ridiculous posts that do nothing but stir people up. GG and Finns are almost as bad. They are a health hazard.
Love Edwards timing
There’s plenty more available if you want to find an answer you like.
That roast is a gift that keeps on giving. Those above and behind the intended recipient, something about to travel overhead.
Ron, it seems ALL your arguments for why Obama won’t win the general election comes down to only ONE point – you think Americans are too racist to vote for a Black guy.
So, if Obama does win (and I predict he will), will you graciously admit you were wrong to assume Americans were so racist? Or will you twist yourself in knots (like you have been doing for the last few weeks) to tell us that Obama somehow conned people into thinking he wasn’t Black?
KR,
ROTFL.
You should put that to song. Could be a great hit.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LKZWtLbLpQ
No doubt whatsoever in GOPper-ville who they’ll be up against this November.
“May 14, 2008
The Obama Gamble
By Ken Blackwell
Even with Hillary Clinton’s wide margin win in the West Virginia primary, Barack Obama will be the Democrat standard bearer in November. However, Democrats may well have buyer’s remorse. Their rush to nominate Mr. Obama, the least vetted presidential candidate in memory, will likely cost them the fall election. The voters, who many believe, Mr. Obama needs for victory in November are trending to John McCain. Obviously, Team Obama is looking at a different trail to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_obama_gamble.html
Not that Little Kenny is biased or anything.
“J. Kenneth Blackwell, the former Ohio Secretary of State, and former Republican House Majority Leader Tom DeLay co-founded the Coalition for a Conservative Majority (CCM) in November 2007 as a “new grass-roots organization help conservatives better convey their message to voters and take back control of Congress.”
Of course there was also the small matter of electoral fraud in Ohio 2004.
“Blackwell gained national prominence for his dual roles as Chief Elections Official of Ohio and honorary co-chair of the “Committee to re-elect George W. Bush” during the 2004 election.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Blackwell
Game On. Seriously.
480 etc – You’ll be turning to religion or guns soon r/Ron, your comments are becoming so bitter, and your antipathy to those not ‘like you’ on the nomination is so marked.
they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them – BHO, and it appears he was right.
Colbert, Pancho at 486, n’est-ce pas?
480
Ron Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 11:04 am
…”Looks like the threat by the black Democrats they’ll desert the Party unless Obama is handed …”
….
This is a yet-more bizarre fabrication, Ron. Obama has not been handed anything. He has run the best campaign seen in many years. Who has been making threats? No-one, as far as I can see. Unless you count Hillary, who has been threatening to polarize the country and the party on the spurious issue of who is more hardworking-white-voter-friendly. (The disgraceful inference is that blacks are not hard-working and are possibly in fact not really American. Shameful politics!)
It’s time to face facts. The new guy has the numbers. He’s earned them all. He will be nominated and with a united Democratic party behind him, will re-cast American politics for decades to come. Hillary, on the other hand, by her own words and deeds, has been exposed as a shallow, vainglorious and destructive wannabe. She cannot unite her own party, but will certainly unite her detractors. Were she to become the Democratic nominee, even McCain would have a chance in November.
j/v & the reverse racists butterflys here , politically correct practised racism.
Obama himself at Philly & Wright made race an issue. Obama himself used the Primarys using his 90%+ race as the manipulative winning formula. Obama is using his race 90%+ as a deserton threat to win SD’s. Obama intends to use his 90%+ race with turnout to win POTUS.
Obama himself has made it a race election. If Swiftboats give whites , Hispanics & Asians the 90%+ race statistics against the white Hillary , he’s landslide goodbye. The 90%+ stats are indesputable
Indeed EC, and looking through it again, even more on the money:
493
Ron Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 11:33 am
j/v & the reverse racists butterflys here , politically correct practised racism…
……
Methinks you do protest too much, Ron. As far as i can tell, you’re the only blogger here that thinks black candiates are unelectable. Could it be you think black candidates are unworthy? Or even unthinkable? Methinks you have a low opinion not only of black candidates, but of anyone that might support them. Such a squalid mind. I hope you’re wrong about the world and i hope I’m wrong abuot you!
An interesting concept that; politically correct racism …
487
No Noocat, he’ll have conned them into voting for him to prove that they wouldn’t not vote for a black, even though in their heart of hearts they’d prefer to not vote for a black because they wouldn’t.
I think that should be clear enough.
Yes, j/v. Ron has invented some new categories in political lexicology. I thought racism was contemptible in and of itself, rather than for its poltical toxicity.
Clear but nauseating.
Hi Ron
Sorry, i don’t seem to understand your point. Is it that Obama’s strength with the black vote (and weakness with other categories) will prevent him from winning the POTUS, or the nomination?
If its the nomination, i think we’re all beyond arguing about who will win. I think any reasonable analysis would accept that Obama has it locked up.
In regards to the POTUS, i think you are correct in saying that Obama cannot win on black votes alone. But i would also suggest that no one would suggest that Clinton could’ve won on white, working class votes alone. Obviously, what it takes to win the nomination is different to what it takes to win the POTUS.
It seems that we may have different views on the ability of Obama to attract non-black voters. I accept that. I think you underestimate the ability of democrat voters to fall behind whoever is nominated, and the general feeling towards the republicans.
If you are suggesting that black voters have hijacked the nomination by turning out, i think in this lengthy, highly publicised with record voting numbers would suggest that everyone that wanted to vote has. And it appears they have chosen their leader.
482
Chris B, that first para is a zinger:
House Republicans may be heading off a cliff in November, but give them credit for perseverance. Even after the new slogan they floated — “The Change You Deserve” — was discovered to be trademarked ad copy for the antidepressant drug Effexor, GOP leaders decided to go with the rollout anyway.
…and boy, do they need their antidepressants now, or what! LOL!
And it gets better:
“Well, this is the floor,” Davis said, stomping on the concrete beneath him. “And we’re underneath the floor.” Without strong medicine, he said, Republicans will lose 25 seats in November. “We’re the airplane flying into the mountain.”
…and so, he’s smart, he’s retiring!
I cannot pretend my vision is perfect these days, and though I am not colour-blind, I for one think the fact that Obama is black is wondrous. It does make my tiny wings flutter the more. And I am not a deep dark butterfly, but am more your common or garden variety cauliflower style.
Woof woof:
In a memo to GOP leaders posted on Politico’s website, retiring Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., offered a blunt verdict: “The Republican brand is in the trash can. … If we were a dog food, they would take us off the shelf.”
…from antidepressant to dogfood, now that’s falling down the food chain in a hurry.
Double ouch!
The big pro-choice organisation, dead centre Clinton territory, has just endorsed Obama today, and the Hillary sisters have gone all Hydra headed it:
NARAL Pro-Choice America’s political action committee threw its support to Barack Obama earlier in the day.
The group is part of a natural Clinton constituency, and its decision prompted some negative publicity for her. So it wasn’t surprising that some of Clinton’s female supporters were angry about the announcement, and took their feelings public.
The first to condemn NARAL’s action was Ellen Malcolm, the president of EMILY’S List, a pro-choice Democratic group that’s been backing Clinton. In a statement, Malcolm said:
I think it is tremendously disrespectful to Sen. Clinton — who held up the nomination of a FDA commissioner in order to force approval of Plan B and who spoke so eloquently during the Supreme Court nomination about the importance of protecting Roe vs. Wade — to not give her the courtesy to finish the final three weeks of the primary process. It certainly must be disconcerting for elected leaders who stand up for reproductive rights and expect the choice community will stand with them.
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/?last_story=/politics/war_room/2008/05/15/naral_pushback/
…this will cause a lot of sparks (and fur?) to fly! LOL
How much chance does McCain have of promoting himself as a ‘non-Republican’ Republican?
With the pro-choice support, Obama can kiss the fundies goodbye. And they were all falling over themselves to vote for him too.
So who do the fundies vote for now? Or do they just stay home in Nov.
Edwards endorsing Obama said:
This is who we are. This is our moment. This is our time to take down these walls, to close our divide and build one America that we all believe in. If you want that, if you believe in that, then join me in helping send Barack Obama to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue because what all of us believe is in this America that we love so much. No matter who you are, no matter who your family is, and no matter what the color of your skin, none of those things will control your destiny. That one America that I’ve talked about is not only possible but it will be achieved under Barack Obama.
…but the question, and no doubt some sharp eyed critic will ask it (here’s ya chance Ron! LOL):
Was Obama wearing a flag pin?
OK, Ron. I’m Noocat, and I’m here to help.
Looking over the archives here (thankyou KR & Catrina), I’m concerned about how irrational your posts have become.
This is what I think has happened. Your earlier support for Obama was half-hearted. You weren’t quite sure because of the “Black” thing. When the Wright issue turned up, you basically freaked out after swallowing the smear hook, line, and sinker. You then started to believe Obama was a closet evangelical Black reformist and therefore a phony by trying to appeal to White voters.
You then tried to express your concerns on this blog. But because others here didn’t buy the smear (except of course, GG and Adam), you felt isolated. So, you upped the volume switch, banged away, and tried to convince us that Obama is Wright is Obama. But we still didn’t buy the smear.
Feeling bruised, you decided to repair the damage to your ego by calling us delusional Obamabots, suggesting we are lowly beings compared to your immense intellectual aptitude.
But once you start down that road, it becomes difficult to turn back without admitting you were wrong, so you’ve dug your heels in even further, now to the point where your beliefs have become so exaggerated, it almost seems as if Obama is the devil incarnate and Hillary is some kind of angel.
But as the course of events continue to pull the base out of your arguments, your posts become more irrational, so you resort to even more personal abuse, suggesting only YOU can see reality for what it is and only YOU have the razor sharp ability to dissect the evidence to arrive at an “objective” conclusion, which funnily enough always seems to fit with what you want it to be.
Ron, you’ve lost perspective because you went into a tailspin after feeling rejected by the blog over the Wright issue, and ever since then, your posts have had much less to do with objective analysis than with ego protection.
Why not take a step back and, rather than trying to prove yourself, try to take a look at the U.S. political situation with a more even eye, and just contribute what you can. Of course, we all have our biases, and we all get things wrong from time to time, but there is a big difference between this and belting people around with personal abuse just to make yourself feel better.
Believe me, once you let go of that ego stuff, you will feel a LOT better.
“…from antidepressant to dogfood, now that’s falling down the food chain in a hurry.”
But wait, Kirri, there’s more: a suitable Memorial to the man who gave up golf to get them where they are today is simply a must, sir!!
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/53247/
“The nation is in despair over the war in Iraq and the toll it is taking on our troops and their families. But President Bush shows no outward sign of inner pain.
He is chipper in his public pronouncements. His weekly bike rides and daily workouts have put a perpetual spring in his step. He’s always ready with a wisecrack (even a tap-dance on the W.H. steps while waiting for McCain). He just hosted his daughter’s wedding at his multi-million dollar estate in Texas. He takes more vacations than any president in history. He has made clear that he doesn’t lie awake at nights. ”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content//blog/2008/05/14/BL2008051401929.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
And to think that some people have so little respect for the Deciderer-In-Chief that they refer to him as, The Imbecile.
And Johnny Bomb-Bomb is his boy. You bet!
505
Ferny Grover
I think Obama would concede the creationists to Huckabee FG.
But you’ve got a point about McCain. He’s got to try and wipe the republican brand from his shoe but at the same time pretend that he’s forgiven the loopy religious fringe at the same time.
Kinda wedged himself, wouldn’t you say?
Noocat, I need counselling too. What are my chances? Is there any point or am i too far gone?
Too hard to say at this stage, BB. But I have hope for us all…
blindbutterfly, you’re in far too deep with the racist, polically correct, rules-based, anti-democratic, affirmative-action loving, women-hating crew to be helped I’m afraid. You Obama supporters are enigma buried under a Clintonian attack strategy so bipolar it makes big Mal Turnbull seem sensible.
509
Enemy Combatant
There’s a bit of journo banter about Democrat voters having ‘buyers’ remorse’ over Obama, (on the few weeks he spent explaining his lack of flag pin and why J Wright is well, not-Wright), but talk about not removing the log from their eye!
The American people bought this whinning whelp as POTUS, not once, but twice!
Talk about buyer’s remorse. America would dearly love to send him right back where he and his cronies came from.
Edwards’ endorsement vid: http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/post/stateupdates/gGBlvM
Noocat,
Keep up your studies of Ron’s Torah. One day true enlightenment will shine upon you and you will not only know but understand. But till that day, it is OK to vent your spleen and frustrations at the difficulty of the task you have chosen at the one who has set the task. It is also OK to to spend hours of your time researching and even more hours writing screeds of drivel bellyaching your incomprehension.
Hallucinogens may help. Getting a life might be a better solution.
Pancho, I have had a very cocooned existence til recently and before that i was really not much more than a bug, hostage to my appetites and restricted by short legs. But I flutter with new hope these days.
“The Change You Deserve”
That is ideal for the Repubs… to encourage people to vote for the Dems.
520
Just Me
It’s just brilliance, eh? Run your opponent’s theme, but use a heavily advertised anti-depressants signature!
They’ve plumbed the depths of PR talent by the look of it!
Isn’t democracy a wonderful thing, it looks the population is going to tell King Bush, Prince Howard and the Prince of england to take their little 21st century crusade and shove it.
ahem…”We don’t need old leadership, we don’t need new leadership. We need the right leadership.”
Good to see that the same brains trust is in charge across the Pacific.
Tom Friedman can say it (in 2003), but not Rev J Wright:
I did a documentary last year for the Discovery Channel on the roots of 9/11, and we went with a team all over the Arab-Muslim world for over a period of about six months and interviewed people on what 9/11 was all about. And our conclusion was 9/11 was really fed by three rivers of rage. One was about what we do — what we, the United States, do, whether it’s how we use resources, it’s our support for a dictatorial Arab regime so they’ll sell us cheap oil. It’s our backing for Israel when it does the right thing and when it does the wrong thing. 9/11 is fed, in part, by what we do, OK. . . .
The second and hugely important river of rage feeding 9/11 was a real overpowering sense of humiliation. . . . The Arab Human Development Report told us last year that 22 Arab states, not a single one has a freely and fairly elected government. . . .
And the third river of rage is how much these people hate their own governments, governments that keep them voiceless and powerless and prevent them from achieving their full aspirations in a world where they know how everyone else is living.
Greenwald in Salon dissects Friedman’s invocation of the next “Cold War’ with Iran(!).
Zinger piece:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/05/14/friedman/
…these are not the ‘dead enders’ Rumsfeld warned us about, but the Neoconservative dead enders who will desperately try to make a case for John McCain’s Millenium Madness.
KR.
I was amazed when I saw that slogan. Possibly the dumbest I have ever seen in politics (given they have held the presidency for the last two terms). The only one that can seriously compete with that is ‘the things that batter’, from our own dear Lexi. Good to see our cons can stand with the best the US has to offer. He he.
505
Kirribilli Removals Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
“Double ouch! The big pro-choice organisation, dead centre Clinton territory, has just endorsed Obama today…”
Hillary’s remnant campaign is looking more bereft, purposeless and surreal by the day. Talk about token politics.
‘Keep up your studies of Ron’s Torah…Hallucinogens may help’
Not really GG, but you tend to laugh longer.
Apparently the congressional win in Mississippi on Tuesday has increased the size of its delegation to the National Convention by one. The magic number for gaining the nomination has therefore been revised upward to 2026 from 2025.
codger,
I bow to your infield experience. BTW, it wasn’t underpants you were sniffing?
Cheers.
Great article from Dem Super Del Gazza:
“John McCain is intelligent enough to know that our tragically flawed invasion of Iraq has indeed kicked open a hornets nest, a 1300 year old hornets nest of violent rivalry inside Islam, and that for us to put all the hornets back in the nest will take decades and trillions of dollars, that it will assure the decline of the American republic, and that it will represent a grasp at empire that would cause all of our founders to revolve in their graves.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gary-hart/john-mccain-and-al-qaeda_b_101823.html
blindbutterfly, you sure play a mean pinball.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf60_kExwXk
A question to the experts here. Now that Obama has won the Dem nomination, what will McCain’s strategy be. He has to determine how far to stand from Obama on a range of issues. Will he go the whole hog (as he seems to be doing, IMHO stupidly) and become a right wing McBush candidate? Or will he triangulate the Repugs. He’s got more room to do this with a more liberal opponent than the centrist Hillary, and the Repugs are so unelectable now that they are electoral poison.
Superdelegate update …
Just bringing my notes up to date – since last night Obama has been endorsed by another three supers, one from MI (does not count in totals for now) and the other two from OK and WI.
DNC Mike Morgan (OK)
DNC Lena Taylor (WI)
DNC Robert Ficano (MI)
This brings the count up to 23.5 with Pelosi (or 16.5 raw)
Obama: 293.5 (287.5+6)
Clinton: 270 (271-1)
’screeds of drivel’
warmer GG
527
codger
That’s why they call Ronron the ‘torah borer’, after a disasterously inept bombed out campaign to capture bin Laden.
Take the hallucinogens, mate, all will become much much clearer! LOL
cheers, EC.
530
Enemy Combatant
And the funny thing is Ecky, McCain has gone against the tide to own the garbage heap they’ve created!
He knows he does, and has said so publicly, so he can hardly torch it and walk away now. It was George’s and now it’s all his.
Oh McCain, you’ve done it again.
Teh “Torah Borer”, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh, heh!!
EC 530
Great article.
One of the things that has surprised me in the reams of opinions on PB and other blogs is the almost reverance given to the coming Repug attack about to rain down on the hapless Liberal Democrat.
I believe the Obama team and the DNC are about to reverse the roles.
The Republicans and their neocon buddies are so discredited that a shredding of them is in the offing.
McCain is nothing that will immunise them from this.He is all over the place trying to please his splintering bases(hello Dr Nelson). By November he will not be the credible maverick that his image portrays him as now. He will be the leader of the discredited Republican Party and all it’s disparate policies and hawkers..
As i think someone here once said…pass the popcorn.
KR I did youtube but decided not to…if you know what i mean like kinda sort of…
It’s still a great hit, EC. The lyricism, the energy, the pure vitality. I could get nostalgic if I could remember the past….:)
To FINNS , GG *& Obama supporters
I’ve always confronted racists (like some here) head on otherwise they hide , manipulate public opinion and inhibit open race discussions which are the pre requisite for reality & fair equity & social black solutions. These racists first defence is to accuse others of their own prejudices.
Discussing black voters is not racist , its psephological. I’ve recommended here in many blogs , Condi Rice for Repugs VP on her expertise qualifications, merit and politically to win black votes off Obama. Guess that’s what a racist would do. In ‘oz’ we have one of the finest minds in this Country not in Cabinet , Pat Dodson , a black.
To NON OBAMABOTS (the ObamaRealists supporters here) from an American-centric psephological viewpoint. The Dems & many SD’s greatest fear is , if the swiftboats publicise widely these black 90%+ Primary stats , and the intended use of these same black 90%+ in Nov but publicising intended greater black mobilisation turnout , the non black backlash from white/hispanic/Asian voters , hysteria & anger.
Voters “NOT fair go” instincts are universal to NON racists voters , and therefore non racist voters are easily receptive to such manipulation, seriously vote defining. Reality, Obama personally to 300 million on TV made race an issue , Wright associated divisive race with Obama , the race door was opened from Obama’s own Philly mouth.The black 90%+ voting can be bullets. Its psephological effect depends on whether any of it is done cleverly & subtlely.
To only Obamabots elitists first , from an oz-centric viewpoint. Your Obamabotic “intellectual agenda” is a theoretical far left, “progressive” ideas based , dream to revolutionarily (but adversely) change the status quo. But you lack the convictions courage to articulate here any detail of Government models or economic models. But just one strand is your politically correct affirmative racial views for a POTUS , a crude form of philosophical politically correct reverse racism rather than on MERIT. For POTUS purposes your views are irrelevant but stated here as an aside for the record & to alert others of your hidden agenda
Finally for the racists here , had Hillary been black (with her same ’Hillary real life ‘centre’ policys) and Obama white (with his same FL ‘progressive’& phony message ideas) , the black Hillary would still have won OH , PA & CA plus black votes and won Nominee easily & with my support. It’s the color of Obama’s politics that I disagree with
howdy codger. have you succumbed to the lures of NewAmerica? Or still enjoying a bittersweet affair with the OldRegime?
Edwards’ PDs not mucking around after his endorsement:
“PORTSMOUTH, N.H.—A New Hampshire Democratic Party delegate who had supported John Edwards says he will support Barack Obama, now that Edwards has endorsed his former political rival for the party’s presidential nominee.”
http://www.boston.com/news/local/new_hampshire/articles/2008/05/14/nh_edwards_delegate_announces_hes_supporting_obama/
Edwards has another 15 PDs, plus 3 add ons who will go to him.
541
Ron Says:
May 15th, 2008 at 2:19 pm ..
To only Obamabots elitists first , from an oz-centric viewpoint. Your Obamabotic “intellectual agenda” is a theoretical far left, “progressive” ideas based , dream to revolutionarily … change the status quo…
…..
you say the sweetest things, your Ronship. I lurve it when you talk politics to me.
FG,
The win in Mississippi increased the number of delegates to achieve a majority from 2024.5 to 2025. (0.5 being possible due to some delegates only having half a vote each, such as those from Democrats Abroad)
Ron
It is clear from your writings that you are comfortable with “coloured” people but you are afraid of “them” having influence on the Great White World.
You are fine being all paternal and taking some “coloured” poorer kids to the football. Very commendable by the way.
It is the fear of “them” having real influence that is obvious.
Let them dine at the buffet..but don’t let them sit at the table.
Via DCW:
‘Just got an email from Daniel Boan (Edwards pledged delegate from SC):
“Sen. Edwards’s endorsement will be an important factor in how I decide to vote.”‘
That’s 2 of 19.
To only Obamabots elitists first , from an oz-centric viewpoint. Your Obamabotic “intellectual agenda” is a theoretical far left, “progressive” ideas based,
Ron
“far left”?
I think your political compass needs resetting, dude. Only by hard right American standards could Obama supporters be called “far left”. Obama is centrist, maybe center-right, by world standards. You need to get out a bit.
Pancho, if you take Obama’s current tally and add his likely gains from the remaining primaries, plus most of Edwards’ delgates, Obama must be within just a few dozen votes of being able to claim victory. After the rules committee meet at the end of this month, and the status of MI and FL have been removed, it should all become quite unequivocal. Not long now.
Just Me – I heard a great bit the other day. A Republican, frothing at the mouth about Obama’s ‘extremism’ in the leadup to Mississippi, claimed that he was ‘more liberal’ (!!!!) than the socialist Senator for Vermont, Bernie Sanders.
It really is time to take a deep breath and reclaim some language, when the worst imaginable smear is to claim that a liberal is more liberal than a socialist.
blindbutterfly
Always up for a lure & love an affair; but black soil bogged at the minute, 1st gear stuck in ‘politically correct affirmative racial views’ & low range jammed in ‘politically correct reverse racism’…
elitebutterfly (nice), Obama is currently 25 PDs short of an overall majority (with a 2025 endpoint). So 19 Edwardses would leave him a half dozen short by that metric.
Hear, hear. Mr. Speaker, who is Barack Obama?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/kristen-breitweiser/you-broke-it-you-own-it_b_101673.html
or maybe as Ray would wail:
And anyone can tell
You think you know me well.
Well, you don’t know me.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=HFvTnNnqfUs
@552 – An overall majority of PDs that is. The mark at which the Pelosi Club step forward and SDs start to fall en masse.
Pancho
That might mean Billary has officially lost before the June 3 primaries. Will she concede when she has officially lost? I think not.
that’s 4wd talk, Pancho. You prolly are a truly ardent baccy-chewin, cuss-makin, moonshine-drinkin, camp-fire makin’ fishin’ n shootin’ man o the mountains, goddamit.
Exactly, Pancho. This extremist use of simplistic, relativistic language and categories is getting out of hand. Anybody who genuinely thinks Obama or the Dems are even left at all, let alone far left or socialist, is seriously out of touch with the real world.
’socialist’, ‘left’, ‘far left’, blahblahblah…
They are just self-reinforcing linguistic Pavlovian triggers for the terminally unthinking.
555
Diogenes
She’ll just say ‘how about the best out of three?’
Diogenes – She seems to have made harping on about FL and MI (at the same time as ruling out accepting MI’s own compromise plan) her reason for being. Unless there is a real flood after 20 May and Obama does get to 2025 I suspect she’ll keep up the FL/MI argument in an attempt to save face. But I don’t think it is entirely out of the question that he would get there before 31 May.
He needs 133.5. Lets give him 15 Edwardses – that would mean he needs 118.5.
Then if he wins Oregon 60-40 that is about 32 delegates (to Cs 20)
If he loses Kentucky 35-53 he gets about 19 delegates (to Cs 32)
So after 20 May he needs another 68.5. On current trends (ie. about 5 SDs a day) he’ll pick up about 30 SDs by that stage, which will leave him needing 38.5 delegates for an absolute majority after the votes of 20 May.
Take away 6 Pelosis at that stage – he needs 32.5. That gives him 11 days, after taking the majority of PDs, to get 32.5 more SDs and take scrapping about FL and MI off the table.
should be Kentucky 35-65
The Finns 553
Six or seven candidates nominated to lead the Democrat Party to the November election. Barack Obama has been elected by the voters in this campaign to do this.
Do you have a problem with this process?
Do you prefer our system where the Party elects the Leader?
I prefer the American system.
In our system K Rudd just won the Party vote. In a campaign style runoff he would have romped home just as Barack has.
In the system provided in America, that both candidates agreed upon, Obama is the decisive winner.
558 KR
Actually, that’s raises a fascinating question.
If they were to do it all over again, knowing what they know now, would the Democrat Party come up with Obama as the nominee in a rerun?
And what would the two campaigns do differently?
Pancho at 559
Sounds reasonable to me – but I think the trickle of 5 per day is going to increase and absolute clarity will emerge after the next contest. But one interesting thing is that instead of tracking respective leads, we are now looking at numbers and projecting how many days before specific end-game events.
qvb and reserved ricist buttflys here , corectally predict rack-ised pacey-ism.
Ibima race made an issue , naughty bogey Wev Right hatey hating all , the hardy working white mijarity thritened by evil pricklitilly correct Black minority , (no ricist I , see the equal white space after me comas!)
Obimer intends to use his winning numbers to win POTUS , the evil Fur Left non – ALP desertion threatener!
yo Obimibats inflighters first, you four-lathed, po-gressive idios based, drum to revolove anaries!
My 169% witorhic is unduspitiable.
(and , stall , why will noon think for the bitterflats?)
(L) Won at 564
I just love the equal white space after me comas!.
If you want a good laugh, read the comments posted on Hillary’s blog!
The people over there are either living in denial, seriously deluded, on drugs or racist bigots!
Today’s new conspiracy theory being floated in Hillaryland: Edwards endorsement of Obama is really an anti-feminist plot cooked up by the old mens club to deflect attention away from Hillary’s supposedly huge victory in West Virginia LMFAO
The press were very muted in their reporting of Hillary’s BIG win in WV. Even ardent Obama supporters like me need to acknowledge that it was a bloody HUGE win – it’s just that it didn’t matter. A feeling of impatience has now settled over the Democrat contest. There’s a mood to get on with the main game – which is, coincidentally, what Obama was doing in Michigan today.
Diogenes @ 531 – The problem McCain has is that, unbelievably, some 30% of the potential voters still believe that Iraq is a good war that the U.S. will win and you could probably count the number of Obama voters among them on the fingers of a careless sawmiller’s hand.
While Macca might still win if he walks away from Bush’s war, I don’t believe he has the courage to do so, even if he thought it was the right thing to do, and I’m not sure he does. I suspect that he meant it when he said he’d occupy the place for a 100 years if necessary. He still seems to believe that the U.S. was wrong to abandon Vietnam and that thinking carries over into Iraq too. Go figure!
New Quinnipiac poll. Obama up 7 over McCain, Clinton up 5 over McCain. But the most interesting thing to me is the breakdown of white vote: Obama 40 – 47 McCain as opposed to Clinton 41 – 48 McCain. Hmmm. You wouldn’t guess those numbers after some of the harping we’ve been seeing.
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1177&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
KR – the question you asked the other night about the numbers of days, and Pancho’s numbers got me doing a little back of the envelope calculation. Last night I suggested 9 sleeps before the end-of-time, but after plugging a few numbers into a speadsheet I’m now projecting something like 12 days assuming a super trickle average of 7 supers per day.
569
Pancho
It’s the bleating of Hill’s sheep that BHO cannot get whites to vote for him, except Adam’s northeastern Liberals of course!
Yeah, then there’s a whole lot of black Democrat primary voters we never noticed before! LOL
This is a crock, and only works if you’re standing in the whitest, oldest and ahem, dumbest state of the union.
Watch Hill’s whiteys start to flock into Obama’s sheep when he comes down from the mountain with the Democrat commandments:
1. Thou shalt not vote Republican
(and the rest are pretty much along the same lines, with one or two about not covetting your neighbour’s wife’s ass!)
Whoa, the Moses of the party, to lead them to the promised land?
See, he’s not the Messiah, just a very haughty boy!
570
Catrina
I thank you Catrina, and I’m sure we can all live with that.
(Although anything which gets the Tora Borer to desist any sooner will be a merciful release! LOL)
Oh by the way (L)Won…are they ‘equal opportunity’ white spaces by any chance? Hmmmm?
#561, HarryH, i have no problem with theirs or our process. i just want the Dems to win the White House again. It is just that I disagree with you guys about Obama. I dont think he can win in Nov as the American people dont know him at all and what they have learned of him so far is not good.
Yes, about 16.5m Dems voted for him but that is only about 13% of the total voting population. he still has to win the majority of that remaining 87%. IMHO, he cannot do it. I could be wrong but that is my opinion. The Amercians in some way are gullible people. so maybe Obama is such a good snake-oil salesman, he can fool them.
The Finnigans at 574
Don’t worry Finns – I have figured out a win strategy for Hillary. It assumes she can move the convention date out a little bit, and given her super delegate win rate she can progressively take the lead. According to my calculations she can secure the nomination in 1,813 days (just over 5 years).
Snake oil?
Like you’d know it if you slipped on it!
What about schmaltz? Would you know that if you slipped on it?
Maybe not. Here’s a recent exchange:
89
The Finnigans Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Adam, i told them so that: “Obama can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but Obama can not fool all of the people all of the time”.
Yes, Obama’s Ayam Jakarta sudah pulang rumah (This one is for the man from Kirribilli)
94
Kirribilli Removals Says:
May 3rd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
Finn, this chicken is cooking Hillary’s goose!
So, whaddya call ‘goose fat’? Eh?
See youse all a bit later, gotta go.
2 endorsements for Hillary today. Unfortunately they are not Supers …..
Lieberman Says Bombing Iran ‘Has An Appeal To It’»
On right-winger Bill Bennett’s radio show this morning, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) expressed his openess to bombing Iran, saying that there is “an appeal to it.” Discussing the West Virginia primary results, Bennett praised what he claimed was Sen. Hillary Clinton’s (D-NY) transformation into his “style” of politician, which he said is someone who “throws down a shot of liquor and bombs Iran.”
Lieberman whole-heartedly endorsed the “appeal” of the hawkish caricature Bennett had created:
BENNETT: Listen, I give her credit. She has found her…three things. She’s found her voice. He is very much in the background now, it’s not this, you know, ventriloquial thing, it’s definitely her voice.
LIEBERMAN: That’s true.
BENNETT: And Joe, you know, this is my style. This is a girl who puts on her pearls, goes down, throws down a shot of liquor and bombs Iran, you know. This is…lookout Mrs. Bennett, this is my kind of girl.
LIEBERMAN: Hehehe, it does have an appeal to it
#576 – man from the showy river – still a bit touchy are we? you should join your candidate to slurp on his tripe and offal soup after your vomit this morning.
GG #529
You generously complimented codger’s ‘infields experience’.Codger has his own Obamabot category called ‘codger’ , he’s lonely & pleads with me to find another inductee , difficult challenge
K/R & FINNS #435
At #473 , I agreed with your k/r demolition of his big noting big note himself to you on Bahasa Indonesia & your demoting k/r to ‘the man from showy river’. Since then k/r has sulked & then claimed I mustn’t have done sufficient reseach before awarding you a K O over k/r re his big noting.
I have completed extensive research since on (your quote “the man from Showy River”) and concluded you were not only correct , but absolutely correct. Aside , the big noting term seems inconsistent with a little size
I’m really starting to this Ron’s just yanking our chain ((L)Won style).
It’s either a brilliantly subtle send-up or he really is crazy as …..
‘think’ not ‘this’
“The Change You Deserve!”
Is Arnie doing their PR now? Of course, by Repubs standards, Arnie’s practically a good guy, especially on global warming. I only thought of him at all because of his Austrian NESP background.
A generation or so back Gerard Hoffnung quoted from the English in an Austrian hotel tourist brochure. Apart from the usual howlers like “… French Widows in every room…”, it climaxed with the hotel’s assertion:
“our slogan is ever: Serve You Right!”
I wonder if there’s a copyright issue.
dogb
delve into Possum’s archives and find the cricket article. check out Ron’s musings and decide if he is for real.
Ok Harry – goody a project!
Yeah Ron, we all know the man from showy river does not like for his big notings to be questioned and challenged. He reminds me of Gollum, still looking for his Precious, where is his Precious? one ring that rules them all. Yes, Gollum, the man from the showy river.
http://freak.blogs.sapo.pt/arquivo/gollum.jpg
One other possibility on the origins of that slogan. Dr Nelson?
His “I’m not going anywhere” could’ve been from the same songbook.
Harry – still not convinced either way.
He comes across as the mayor from crazytown but then all that yous/yooz/you stuff makes me wonder.
http://www.hedgehogreport.com/polls2008prezev.php?gop=McCain&dem=Obama
This data (admittedly, pretty much the same data as from electoral-vote, but hey – I need feeding on something) again supports my thesis that to win the presidency Obama has to win Florida or Ohio.
Colorado is a given to Obama, which is a good thing. But even with Michigan – which is a hold for the Democrats, not a gain on 2004 – and Iowa, it is not enough without one of those two key states.
I would again note for the (broken) record that Indiana is not at present a realistic option for Obama, no matter what electoral-vote has on their map at the moment. No other sites are giving weight to that one outlier poll that electoral-vote is basing its current tie in Indiana on.
dogb
i guess you really don’t think G.W. Bush is an idiot either? lol
I’ll bet the phatlady won’t sing till the rules committee have met. The FL/MI situation needs to crystal clear. There can’t be any cries of “we wuz robbed” from the clintonistas. As soon as this is done, Obama can become first warrior of the new republic.
Anyone with 12 minutes to spare might want to watch Olberman rip Bush a new one
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/14/olbermann-to-bush-this-wa_n_101831.html
just scroll down and play the video.
DG – So, looking forward, we need to stick with objective polling, except in the case of Indiana where your analysis tells you that objective polling might not relflect what will happen in November?
I believe it possum who taught us that polls are not “predictive”. They are a slice through current opinion, at best. To know what will happen in november, we need to watch what unfolds in coming weeks, in Indiana as much as elsewhere.
The Democrats need 67 seats in the Senate to prevent the filibuster. Here is the link to the Votemaster Senate candidates page.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Senate/senate_races.html
There is note much mention of right wing Democrat candidates, so their should not be much crossing of the floor, to prevent new laws getting up.
Move on is putting millions into funding the Senate candidates to beat the filibuster. They helped win control of the Senate for the Democrats by funding states that were unwinable in 2006. http://www.moveon.org
Should this happen, America will change for ever.
“But after Hillary Clinton failed to meet her own expectations in Indiana and North Carolina on May 6, every sentient life-form on Planet Earth pretty much agreed that the former First Lady wouldn’t be representing the Democratic Party in November.”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/137042
Excepting of course some “life-form(s) on Planet Earth” or more specifically Bludgerdom, who manage quite remarkably really, on an ongoing basis, to elude classification as “sentient”.
Pancho,
With Indiana, there is one outlier poll that has Obama in front and Clinton tied. On this basis – for some reason – electoral-vote has Indiana as a tie for both Obama and Clinton. On the basis of my analysis of other polls and other organisations that are doing state-by-state analyses of the polling, it is reasonable to – provisionally -conclude that the poll that has Obama in front and Clinton tied is not to be relied upon.
Of course, if we get additional polling confirming the results of that outlier then that would indeed be a different matter. However, the single poll in Indiana since then has moved back to the ‘normal’ numbers.
As such, I think that my rejection of Indiana as a possible gain for Obama is based on the data that we have thus far. Of course, there is the possibility that I am wrong.
I would also suggest that even if we give Indiana to Obama, that still does not give him sufficient presidential delegates to win and that therefore Ohio and Florida are still the key states.
I think that Democrat supporters who are dreaming of a blue map come November are not living in reality. It is a nice dream, sure. But that is all it is.
Oh, I understand that polls are not predictive in that sense. However, as I repeat ad nauseam they are the only real data that we have to go on. At present, on the data that we have, Obama needs to win either Ohio or Florida to win the presidential election.
And, for the record, I think that he will do it. But it will be tight.
Chris B – 60 is a filibuster-proof majority, is in not?
I will also add that I think that the House and the Senate races are a bit of a different story. The Democrats are going to do very well indeed.
David Gould
#589
Yes , that Indiana poll is outlier , probably weighted on the west side of the State. Believe that will easily stay ‘red’. The other site you mentioned David shows a massive 93 E/V Hillary advantage over Obama comparative to McCain.
In NORMAL political times, this & numerous Hillary favoring swing state polls normally would see the SD’s swarming to Hillary , and not the reverse
Dr Adam Carr & Mayor Koch were both quoted on this site both saying the reason for the SD’s going.the reverse of political commonsense (to Obama) is (their words) the DNC have effectively been pressuring SD’s the Nominee is Obama’s whether he wins the delegate race or not , because of the threats received (taken seriously) that the black voters will desert the party if Obama is not given the Nominee. The statements have been made by these 2 guys are as a matter of psephological fact/opinion , rather than a personal attack by them on anyone.
In view of all comparative polls & electoral maps etc favouring Hillary , the minimum status of the SD’s should have been no movement (or some movement to Hillary) rather than significantly from Hillary ?
(I’ll blog another time on some flaws I’ve seen in some Internet maps , but not electoral-vote)
So, here’s the post-WV state of play, with 426 delegates of both varieties still up for grabs at the moment (according to DCW):
Obama – 1600.5 PDs, 287.5 SDs, total of 1888 with a further 137 required.
Clinton – 1445.5 PDs, 271.5 SDs, total of 1717 with a further 308 required.
This takes the win in MS01 into account, making the requirement 2025 for the win.
Ron at 601
Ron – do you really believe the stuff you write? You really believe that the DNC is ignoring Obama’s lead in the popular vote, the number of contests won, and most importantly the lead in pledged delegates? To think that the DNC is controlling the minds of all of these supers does not verge on the ridiculous – no – it’s so far beyond that. We can only measure your 601 comment in grades of stupidity. So, how should we evaluate you 601 comment … ‘plainly stupid’, ‘farcically ludicrouse’, or ‘written by a someone in the queue for committal proceedings’?
Pancho at 602
My numbers are using the same reference point – but I’m also applying the Pelosi factor which for the time being gives an additional 6 for Obama and drops Hillary by 1.
All these arguments about Hillary’s vs Obama’s electability are irrelevant now. Obama will be the Democratic candidate and we will never know how Hillary would have done. No amount of analysis will change that.
“The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.”
HarryH 578 –
BENNETT: And Joe, you know, this is my style. This is a girl who puts on her pearls, goes down, throws down a shot of liquor and bombs Iran, you know.
IMHO:
on foreign policy, ie. Iraq & Iran, McCain would be a far more dangerous president than Bush because Macca would know what he was doing
Clinton would likely be just a slightly softer version of Bush. While there might be less troops on the ground at the end of a second Clinton term the occupation would be ongoing
Obama, I’m not sure about, mostly because of some of the bills he missed voting on. He makes the right noises but whether he’d actually carry through remains a question mark for me
Obama’s electability is not an issue anymore.
The issue is what states he needs to win to win the White House.
Pancho
#602
Your maths are wrong , There are 2209 delegates reuired not 2025. MI and FL will not be forgotton by Hillary
Also your maths are wrong on Hillarys rejection of 69/59 split of Michigan. Thats a vote rigging rort pushed to MI reps by the Obama supporting DNC. Hillary won
over Obama by well over a net 30 delegates (not the 10 mathematical rort)
Catrina @604 – sorry if you posted that before, I didn’t check. Was just trying to direct proceedings around a car crash.
Hi David
I can’t provide any help to the debate, other than to point out that someone posted an article by Karl Rove the other day. In it, he said McCain is basically resigned to the fact that once the nomination is settled, he will find himself behind in most polling.
While there are many possible reasons for Rove to say this apart from it being the truth (and we do know he’s a liar), it is possible that this would happen. I’ve noticed that many (other than the folks here) expect the polling data to change markedly once Obama is official.
Oops! Looks like the crash has swerved into 608, and the driver has not realised that the DNC (not Terry Mcaulliff) sets the official endpoint, and no matter what it might be, at the moment it is 2025. Also doesn’t understand the reality that neither Hillary nor Obama’s preferred resolution to MI will be accommodated, and it will be 69-59.
MayoFeral at 606
On the ‘Obama I’m not sure about’ topic and voting record – I believe we have to factor in a number of contextual items here. The first is that a vote on a bill can never be considered without a full review of the power-base context, the grains of sand that a bill represents, and the relative timing of a vote position relative to others. In other words – I think you have to focus more on the things that are affirmative or opposition votes.
599 Pancho I’ve read 65 and 67 the latter was on Moveon.org site so I just went with what they said.
It is certainly probable that the polling data will change over time – I would be incredibly surprised if it did not. However, I do not necessarily think that it will all change in Obama’s favour. My suspicion is that the polling data over the last months will continue to be reflected to a fair extent over the coming months. I would well be wrong, of course. But my prediction is that Obama will not win the White House without either Ohio or Florida, and that he will win one of those, but that it will not be by much.
Chris B – yeah I’ve never read any official rules, but have always had 60 in my mind. I think that 60 stops the opposition setting up committees and bringing their own votes forward. Perhaps a full 2/3 majority stops all filibustering.
Politico was on about 60 votes a little while ago: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9476.html
Mayo
IMO the most important thing Obama has said in this campaign is about Foreign Policy.
He said “I will not only end this Iraq War, but i want to change the mindset that got us into it”.
I remember watching it and the context in which he said it and i thought to myself…”here is a guy who can really help change this madness”.
He will still be fiercely loyal to Israel,as any President needs to be, but he will oversee a solutions based , fairer Foreign Policy. There is a movement away from the radical hawkishness that has dissapointed every sane person and brought zero positive results.
Under Clinton…nothing would change.
Under McCain it would get worse…as you stated.
Diogenes @ 605 – apt quotation from Omar Khayyam, a Persian who was a master of, among other things, poetry, mathematics, and religious scepticism – all things most of us respect here.
Although, there are still some residual naysayers of the Clintonian variety, who would be more interested in Omar Khayyam’s work on reforming the calendar, in the hope of being able to re-arrange time to place us back before February 5 for a re-run the primaries.
Ron at 608
Talk about ludicrous and ridiculous all wrapped up together – are you basing your arguments on emails from the Clinton campaign or is this your own cunning mathematics?
Lets assume that the Bylaws committee meeting on the 31st grants full voting rights to FL and MI without penalty and lets assume that Obama gets 0 votes in MI, 0 pledged delegates. OK – its a long shot but I’ll play the silly game. After Kentucky and Oregon Obama will be short of the total by 192, Clinton short by 250. I.e. Obama still ahead. And if we play out the days to end-of-time scenarios based on the super delegate endorsement trends, we have:
Obama: 27 days to win
Clinton: 1,750 days to win
Yes, it is an improvement for Hillary Clinton – instead of bringing the nomination to a close in just over 5 years, she can bring it back to just under 5 years.
Wow – that’s a real kicker!
HarryH at 616
You are not alone – I remember the same moment and thinking similar things. Even Ron agrees on this point. In in a reply to jaundiced view where j/v asserted his belief that Obama is Obama is a once in a generation leader, Ron had this to say:
Pancho 60 sounds better. Very interesting article. It looks more gettable after Mississipi. Even if they miss it, in 2 years the last part of the Senate is up for grabs. The last of the Bush senators will go. The tidal wave will keep going for at least another 4-6 years unless the Democrats really stuff it up.
I think they will have learned from Bills first year.
Maybe Moveon.org is targeting at getting a total 67 seats. They only missed Tennessee last time.
dogb at 571, or he’s just really really stupid
And Catrina reading Ron is a health hazard. Dont bother, I promise you’ll feel better immediately!!!
Andrew at 624
I know – after reading 601, I started blinking rapidly, and noticed that I had to shake my head a couple of times to clear my thoughts. To much of that sort of thing can give a girl a bad reputation.
Too
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/14/AR2008051403611.html?wpisrc=newsletter
A discussion about the chances for the Democrats to pick up the required Senate seats. It looks fairly unlikely, but they could come pretty close.
#619 Catrina ["unbalanced foreign policy and I believe Obama can generally correct this" - old r/Ron]
It is quite interesting. I only discuss it because of the number of long posts we cope with from r/Ron.
This is why I have some doubts about r/Ron’s ‘conversion’ and his original persona and support for Obama. By the way, feel free to read this r/Ron. It was comprehensive and enthusiastic support, and only changed after a fairly long absence, and the language had deteriorated by a lot when the conversion to Clinton occurred if you look at the earlier posts. They had been shorter and pithier, and even understandable in the early days.
I thought it was a different person when he ‘came back’ with his name in upper case. I suspect the change has been fuelled by more than just the Wright smears. That wasn’t logically enough of a reason to change camps so completely and vehemently. It didn’t justify dumping Obama’s better foreign policy and other policies r/Ron had said originally he supported as you pont out. It was completely out of proportion.
One doesn’t, after deciding to support someone in politics, having assessed the evidence, doesn’t jump ship without a cogent set of reasons. A beat-up about what someone the candidate knows once said doesn’t fit such a set of reasons. After all, the whole selective leak was designed to scare dumb voters. Even most of them saw through it, on the exit polling afterwards. No, the whole r/Ron conversion thing doesn’t stack up.
One give-away element is that he has never shown the same sort of enthusiastic support for Clinton, or any support really – it is all just anti-Obama. Another real give-away point is the level of bitterness an obsessiveness we are getting now from r/Ron.
I suspect that the earlier ‘support’ for Obama was a blind to make it look like a ‘conversion’, when the black man never had r/Ron’s support at all. Maybe he thought he would carry others with him.
Otherwise it’s just heavy medication.
To backup what I was saying yesterday about the Confederate/Ku Klux Klan. The Votemaster today has this:
LA-06 is R+7. Here the NRCC and Freedom’s watch threw the book at Don Cazayoux (D) and it didn’t work. Also Woody Jenkins has some ties to Ku Klux Klan supporter David Duke. The district has many black voters who are going to turn out in great numbers if Barack Obama is the nominee. It will be a severe uphill climb for Jenkins to win the second time, even with Republican turnout being heavier, too.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
For anyone who would like to read more on the North South political influence. Look up what the song The Night They Rode Dixie Down is all about.
This US election has become a many-splendored thing. Coming to an LCD screen near you is:
*The delicious agony of Hillary’s exit strategy (VP?, Health?, Sec of State?; Head of Presidential Dirt Unit?; Sweet FA?)
*The selection of Obama’s VP and other proposed office holders. (eg Edwards as A-G)
*The battle between old politics and the new. (eg. scare tactics by the vested interests in Washington – business lobbies, military etc)
* The firming up of policies on both sides during the general.
* The state by state and national polling after the Obama nomination is confirmed (probably through the roof for the Dems)
*The spectacle of a 72 year old attempting the quadruple summersault with pike and twist, in order to try for the support of the GOP core, while at the same time ‘distancing’ himself from the current Repug administration.
Not a bad prospect overall is it?
HarryH @ 616 -
As I said in my previous, Obama does say the right things…but… time will tell..
It comes down to having a deep distrust of orators. IMHO, there have been few, if any, in history who were worth a damn, and that includes relatively recent, highly lauded ones like JFK and Churchill. True the latter may have saved Britain, but he wasted a lot of lives doing it, and WW2 excepted, he wasn’t that great a PM.
David Gould,
Have followed your contributions with interest. You are always well researched balanced and call it as you see. I agree with your assessment that Obama would need to win Florida and Ohio in November. I also agree that his support base and performance to date would make that difficult to achieve.
Despite the partisan nonsense spouted here at PB, McCain is a credible candidate, the Republicans know how to win elections and there has been a notable lack of support for Democratic Liberals as POTUS over the last 40 years.
Add to the mix Obama’s race, lack of experience and mad Uncle Jerry, then we better fasten our seatbelts, it is going to be a bumpy ride if Obama achieves the nomination.
Apparently, Obama speaks well and the latte sipping intellectuals think this is the most important attribute in a new President. This alone probably explains why they never win.
Cheers.
610
Yo ho ho
yeah, I posted it, and because it was from Rove, held my nose! LOL
But essentially I think he was talking straight, McCain will not get an easier ride than Obama, especially with what’s been pouring out of that elephant’s backside all these years!
Article in today’s Fin Review about McCain and his troubled history with the green votes he’s dodged.
It also pointed out that Rush Limbaugh is Andrew Bolts role model (well, I made that bit up! LOL) and is the arch GG denier (that’s greenhouse gasses, and not the chappy here who spouts a lot of methane).
So, not only has he been less than inspiring on climate change, he’s got one part of the base dead against him and now there’s even a trend for the deeply religious towards the green movement.
It’s going to be funny threading his way through that lot.
Ah, the absolute joy of driving a PC with a dual core processor and a couple of gigabytes of memory!
It fliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessss!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mind you, it’s been two weeks of hell and one disaster after another and I still need to replace the new motherboard as the networking bit went bung!
Anyway, a word of caution: BACKUP EVERYTHING!
Coz ya never know when the thing is going to meltdown. I had both a backup internal AND external drive, so I’ve lost only time. Not the family albums, the work files, the emails, the recipes …the entire digital life!
Mayo
I agree time will tell
I am encouraged by the voices that are supporting him and by the voices that are opposing him, that he will make a difference.
Under Clinton nothing would change. that is a certainty.
627 David Gould Thanks David an excellent article. Well 60 seats to beat the filibuster it is.
KR,
I have noticed this fascination you have with all things excremental. Variations on “shit” seem to permeate your contributions.
Perhaps some of our resident psychotics doing their PHDs on Ron may choose to switch to a piece by piece analysis of KR instead. We really need to know what underlies this fetish.
636 Kirribilli Removals Doing My backups while I’m reading and writing this. One to the other computer in this room, and the third copy goes on DVD’s in the boot of the car. The odds of the car and house having something happen at the same time would be massive.
Unless a metorite……
Chris B
Aviod crashing the car into the house.
642
WorkToRule
That’s “Life According to Garp” type odds!
I’m speechless! LOL
The Obama’s team’s management of the SD annoucement has been outstanding since North C/Indiana. Sheduling the Edwards endorsement the days after WV – outstanding.
Assuming the rumors of many more SD’s being onside are true – how do people think he’ll play it from here? I’m guessing just a drip feed until May 20th – then claim victory on pledged delegates.
Good idea. I’ll start practising.
HarryH at 592:
Heartfelt stuff from Keith Olbbermann. He meant every songle word of it. His “journalistic” father, Ed Murrow of “Good Night & Good Luck” fame would be mighty pround of the way he spoke truth to power. Had a lump in my throat as he launched into his finale.
jv at 631, it’s the ride of a political junky’s lifetime. The stakes have never been higher. What happens in November will have monumental consequences for us and all creatures great and small who come after us.
This one’s not just about The Seps. It’s about the future of our Pale Blue Dot and the essence of democracy itself.
“It fliiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiieeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeessss!!!!!!!!!!!!”
Kirri what’s this I hear about you doing intertube-wheelies on your den desk!? What sort of an example are you setting your young and impressionable offspring?
Without firm guidance you could very easily develop into an uncontrollable Cyber Hoon and a clear and present menace to all the peaceable folk of Bludgerdom.
Responsible community bloggers will be keeping a close eye on you, sonny Jim!
The great KR computer crash caught on video.
Shame! Shame! Shame!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZhK2hZvN3l8
Pancho , you can blog support for effective branch stacking in favour of Obama all you like , but you won’t convince any Hillary supporter the effect of excluding MI & FL is not much different in its result (excluding Pro hillary delegates) to vote rorting in a Magube style election & the rip off voter feelings in the US run deep.
The point is the DNC (Dean , Obama’s mate) knew in advance by ALL polls that MI & FL were 15%+ Hillary states for Jan 2008 & Hillary supporters know it. Penalising the the 2.3 million people , instead of just the officals , means the Hillary people remember everywhere
4 months of procrastination & sanctimonous excuses by Team Obama & Obamabots over basic equity has simply hardened more of the Hillary supporters (of 49%) who will vote McCain or not vote. Your opinion is not relevant. Obama supporters have missed the point , Obama has kicked another own goal (lots of lost votes). The issue can not be ‘moved on’
Board Odds, Bludgers, Board Odds:
IASbet:
Dem Nominee,
B Obama 1.04
H Clinton 11.00
2008 Winning Party
Democratic Party 1.50
Republican Party 2.60
It’s not over until the fat kid sings. And here he is.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=za7DyssY3hI&feature=related
A Profile of No Courage. A butterfly flaps now with disaster in November.
The Obama Gamble – [Even with Hillary Clinton’s wide margin win in the West Virginia primary, Barack Obama will be the Democrat standard bearer in November. However, Democrats may well have buyer’s remorse. Their rush to nominate Mr. Obama, the least vetted presidential candidate in memory, will likely cost them the fall election........ Many West Virginians live in small towns, and are at least moderately religious. ..... So how does Barack Obama respond to the clear challenge he has with white working class voters? He insults them and essentially writes them off. He tells them the Appalachian Trail is not his path to the White House......... In that sense, the way Mr. Obama lost the West Virginia primary could be a harbinger of a November defeat].
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_obama_gamble.html
[For Obama, a Lost Moment…….. But he should have competed there, if only to signal his awareness of its special place in Democratic history. Forty-eight years ago, it was West Virginia more than any other state that propelled John Kennedy into the White House. And it did so in a way that Obama should have wanted to emulate……… But, like Kennedy, Obama has questions he needs to answer……… He has sown doubts about his ability to win white, working-class votes. West Virginia could have helped put those doubts to rest. Now they will remain until the fall.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obama_could_have_had_kennedy_m.html
Ron,
I was unaware Obama was now torturing HRC supporters and murdering members of her team. I no longer can support this man’s bid for the President of the United States.
Thanks ron/Ron. I was put out when I went from ’special’ to ‘moreron’. More better. Black & white clear now.
Btw 122 waiting…
Dr & Mayor…hey ron/Ron tell me more about ‘if Hillary was black’ the Minstrels? I love it when you go all sexy sociological on us.
Oh nearly forgot, the thesis: Electahillabillity, more please.
@ David Gould (163)
There’s an article about the likely and probable electoral college votes for each candidate here:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/4/24/113851/565
FYI, the author, kos, is an Obama supporter.
649 ecky
More interesting is the huge plunge on Edwards for VP at paddypower. He’s favourite at 3/1 now.
Looking on to the main game, not much enthusiasm for John McC’s speech coming up tonight. That’s what happens when you can’t afford a decent speechwriter. The key points have been released in advance and this is what they’re saying about it on US abc news:
The style of the speech – in which the presumptive Republican nominee will list the things he hopes to have accomplished at the end of his first term – reads like his current stump speech, but with verbs in the past tense.
For example:
Other accomplishments he hopes to achieve include the formation of a League of Democracies to bring to bear pressure on governments that do not share democratic values.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/mccain-reflects.html
A ‘League of Democracies’ – wouldn’t that be a tasteful selection of nations? All the main oil users I’d guess.
That reminds me of ‘The League of Gentlemen’ – anyone remember that classic UK lot? A reminder: “We didn’t burn him!”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YOtpgz4L5d8
Diogenes, they do look good together, and his picture is up on Obama’s homepage now. I bet the Hillaryous attempting to wedge her into VP now are cursing this added development. That said, an Obama/Edwards would still surprise me (though it would be a great surprise). I really liked his endorsement speech as well.
Diogenes @ 655 – In the open marketplace on Betfair, Edwards is firm too at around $6.60 – virtuallly the same odds as Richardson and Sibelius, with Clinton just favorite at $5.50. At 9/2 the field, it’s a very open event, so no-one has any idea who will get the guernsey yet.
Just thinking of the where as well. Edwards was rolled out in Michigan. Will we eventually get Gore in Florida? What odds am I offered? I’d say no better than evens that if Gore endorses, it will be in Florida.
“Electahillabillity”
That takes the cake!
651 Finns
Do you even consider whose opinions you link to to support your Hillary theories.
Your link in 651 is an article by Ken Blackwell. The same Republican Ken Blackwell from Ohio who was the main instigator in rigging that states election for G.W. Bush.
League of Democracies? Reminds me too much of the League of Nations, and everyone knows how good they were at pressuring dictatorships.
I don’t know if Gore will endorse Obama now. I subscribe to the belief that there is no such thing as undecided Superdelegates, just undeclared ones. A lot of the timing of announcements is based on the respective camps directions, and pushing for maximum media exposure. Edwards’ endorsement was clearly timed for after the WV primary to mute any media spin resulting from what Obama’s team expected to be a comfortable win to her and keep the media positive on his campaign.
As for Gore… I can’t really see any time in the next few weeks that he would need an endorsement of that size to capture the media narrative. I would think that if Gore were going to endorse before the convention, he would have done so already (the lead up to the PA or IN/NC primaries would have been a much better time for him).
How about a League of Gentlemen instead?
Ok here’s the post-WV post Edwards state of play, (according to DCW):
Kirribilli Removals – 18 nasty catty comments today.
Catrina – 3 minutes 58 seconds to banal statistic repetition moment including the 7.2 obsequiousness factor.
This takes the last catty comment at 8.58pm into account.
That’s the sort of counting of delegates Hillary needs to get the nomination: one, two… twelvety!
RCP has just updated its SD lead adding another 1 to Obama who now leads Hillary by 15. Who was it?
Now McCain reduces his expected time in Iraq by 96 years. Oh, no he doesn’t – it’s only ‘most’ troops that will come home in 4 years:
Republican presidential candidate John McCain said on Thursday he believes the Iraq war can be “won” within four years, leaving a functioning democracy there and allowing most U.S. troops to come home.
http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN1453247320080515?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews
Jon Stewart has that banjo theme a plunking at the end of this:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=168561&title=indecision-2008-west-virginia
…takes ya back!
664
Edward StJohn
And looky there, it’s Greasy Eddy sliming straight into his usual schtick.
Eddy: useful or amusing or entertaining contribution…zero.
664 PJ cuffs & pekinese closing 12 o’clock high…9.01pm Sniff GG sniff…
KR @ 636
Hope you put GNU/Linux on it. Ubuntu is a good distro…
…ah, sorry. Wrong forum.
codger @ 670,
I am no good at cryptic crosswords. Absolutely NFI.
JV at 626, thanks for the interesting analysis but I think the answer is simpler- r/Ron is just plain dumb
I just read something interesting. All mail sent to the White House, Congress and other Federal Government officials is irradiated (to stop anthrax). This means it takes more than a week for letters to reach these offices. The Americans are either paranoid or these is a hell of a lot of anthrax unaccounted for in the US.
Goodness gracious, Bludgers, we seem to have our very own self-appointed bastion of the public antsyness.
Eddy, I’ll bet you were a prefect at school, right?
——————————-
As Brutusina’s 15 minutes of Appalachian fame fades fast from memory and the relentless churn of the news cycles on, perhaps a little ditty of remembrance and respect is in order.
Aye, the twist in the tale is who comes off the better.
P.S. If you pay attention you’ll hear what a full tank of gas cost 30 years ago.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esl2NNOtHQE
671
Callum
There are days Callum, there are days! Like when you download IE7 and find it jams the 0/S because the yahoo toolbar on the installed version conflicts with the google toolbar on the newest version! It had my boffins scratching their heads for a while! LOL (And to make matters worse the networking went down at the SAME time! LOLx2)
I swear, I swear a lot on days like this!!!
Corporate memory GG…Eddies damp nightwear & intellectual itch as the tide rose on the rodent; just came flooding back; get ron/Ron on the research, he’s good at that. Codger/GG sniff joke patented.
Clinton is so out of touch. She is multimillionaire and suddenly she wants to part of the working classes, she uses working class language and tries to fit in but in reality she is a toff. Her arrogance is astounding, get Florida and Michigan votes to count when in reality the process was unfair.
Time she left and the sooner the better.
codger @ 677,
glad you cleared it all up. not!
675
Enemy Combatant
It always disturbed me, that scene, and it wasn’t just the Yankee Doodle ditty being torn every which way, or the strangely mutant kid, it was the way the city dudes couldn’t get it, they couldn’t dance or really feel the music. For a moment, they were the mutants.
677
codger
Compared with the Torah Borer you are, without doubt, the Delphic Oracle! LOL
GG, once upon a time a pesky, no less I believe, pekinese deigned to approach the Tory’s lower echelon nightware & guess what?
The Repugs strategy in the Mississippi by-election of linking the Democrat candidate to Obama didn’t work, and they lost their third congressional election this year. Looks like the they are preparing to start running around and bumping into each other in the general election. Barack won’t be an easy target, despite their hopes:
Republican House members said the political terrain was tilted against them, and some expressed despair about the months ahead at the private meeting on Wednesday. One House Republican rated the panic expressed at the meeting as a 7 on a scale of 10.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/15/us/politics/15repubs.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
Andrew @ 673 – Ah, true, another possibility.
Yes, Kirri, the “give ‘em some money” from Ned Beatty at clip’s end nailed that aspect brilliantly. Actually havn’t seen “Deliverance” since first release and will watch it again on DVD soon. The environmental theme is even more resonant nowadays.
But for supporters and detractors of Obi alike, tomorrow is calling.
And cool is where you find it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmqrTUNrWSM&feature=related
And JJ if Ron was a repug or clinton stooge, he’d go about his business a lot smarter than he does
683
jaundiced view
7 out of 10…hmmm, that all! LOL
Gotta say I just lurv it when they squeal like that….oh, sorry, that was Deliverance!
Eddy at 664
Dear Uncle Eddy, I’m sorry, was I raining on your parade? But don’t worry, the Greeensborough Gardner is the front sowing seeds of doubt, and Uncle Ron and toy boys are upstairs working up the numbers.
KR – Another disturbing scene that one, from memory, involving a bloke emulating another bloke’s usual sexual partner I think. That movie is full of disturbing scenes though, and I think it would stand the test of time because of its suspense.
EC – a golden oldie, thanks. Speaking of classics – have a gander at Cream in this classic doing Spoonful – Jack, Eric and Ginger. I don’t know what particular enhancing substance they were on, but it appears to be strong, and it works! 8:34 of superb ‘white’ blues.
Better have a connection to the thread … um .. . Ah – I know – a spoonful of reality medicine needs to be taken by Hillary to make her drop out.
The song:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XiCWS6Of7oo&feature=related
KB – Try using a good browser – Opera or Firefox. You’ll be amazed at how much faster they load pages. With either you don’t even need a Google toolbar, just type g followed by the key words directly into the browser’s address bar, hit enter and they take you direct to the google results page (actually IE7 will do the same but using Microsoft’s Live search engine).
You can just feel this coming, the global warming is a ‘cult’ mob are gunning for Macca the moment he opens his mouth on the subject:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/mccain_joins_global_warming_cu.html
So how many of these ignorant ostriches do you reckon reside on the Republican side of the fence?
Truly, this is going to be amazing to watch.
Colbert’s take on O’Reilly’s dummy spit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN5o0twbbUE&eurl=
689
MayoFeral
Thanks Mayo, I do run FF too. (I have Flash disabled on IE so one browser is NEVER force fed stuff I don’t want on a page, but available on FF for video and stuff. I’ve got FF on youtube now, Ravi Shankar and Alla Rahka, and typing in IE on pollbludgers)
It works for me! LOL
I see a night of chirping by the butterflys , in particular the pansy variety , all patting each other on the back in self admiration. The butterflys , a nest of FL politically correct snoutted elitists giggling at ‘the message’ , the phony message containing code words dsigned 9successfully) to hypnotise the butterflys into unswerving support
Meanwhile in the real world , the latest electoral college anaysi shows Hillry easily beating McCain , and Obama getting thrashed. The SD’s still can ditch Obama anytime based on election stats , and should
Pancho: what about Stewart’s moment of Zen?
Chris Mathews calling Hillary Clinton the Al Sharpton of white people!
You know the Clintons are finished when they can do a gag like that…and survive! LOL
690 KR – [gunning for Macca the moment he opens his mouth on the subject]
There’ll be plenty more ‘wedgies’ like that for McCain to come on other topics too, won’t there? How uncomfortable for him.
693
Ron
You OK, Ronron?
When you hear butterflies chirping, well, that means either your head is too close to the ground and it’s actually nighttime crickets, or you’ve totally lost the plot, and they’re not butterflies at all, but very tiny little baby chickens in amaaaaaaaazing colours, with giant wings, flying around and chirping.
Which one is it Ron? Do you reckon?
That Matthews line is funny – you can never tell when he means it to be though, cos his mouth just tends to run away with itself.
Uncle Ron at 693
I just love it when you talk dirty!
*twinkle*
Glanced very briefly at your earlier blog j/v , you are a troubled man , and with a mania about race. Why is that , Obama being black should not be a problem.
Interesting you have never articulated a case for voting for Obama & I’m curious for your policy reasons
To the person whose comments aren’t making it out of moderation: you’re only allowed one identity per thread, I’m afraid.
thanks william….i did feel like a pat on the back for my pansiness, but am happy to be elite anyway
his ronship knows how to cut. he’s sharp as a wooden spoon.
The next big endorsement card Obama can play is Gore!
I wonder if Edwards will campaign with Obama in Kentucky this weekend, maybe a trial run for November?
I watched Edwards’s endorsement speech again earlier tonight: very impressive, I love all the stuff about One America and tearing down the walls.
Kirribilli Removals: apparently Edwards was pissed off with Hillary’s claim that white people wouldn’t vote for Obama, that sealed the deal for him. This playing of the race card by the Clintons has been dispicable. If she wants to team up with McCain, let her, I’m done with her and her deviant of a husband.
k/r , why do you cut & paste other peoples financial articles anyway on a US political election thread , may as well quote the latest football scores. Not trying to big note yourself I hope. FINNS slapped you down very well on that trait.
Better still , tell us all the real life policys Obama is going to introduce.
A for my numerous peronal Parrots I’ve acquired I’ve almost caught up with GG & FINNS ,so you’ve made me happy indeed. I do have names for all of you but can not say in the same day you outed yourselves.
Yeah Karl, why is that, do you reckon:
Why is it tough sledding for Republicans? Public revulsion at GOP scandals was a large factor in the party’s 2006 congressional defeat. Some brand damage remains, as does the downward pull of the president’s approval ratings. But the principal elements are the Iraq war and a struggling economy.
Gallup’s 2007 report found that fewer voters identify themselves as Republicans now than at any point in the past 20 years – despite the fact that less than a fifth of Americans agree with Mr. Obama’s call to rapidly withdraw from Iraq. And while many Americans are concerned about the economy, most are satisfied with their own finances.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121081030507093579.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
Let’s just examine that claim, or rather “the fact that less than a fifth of Americans agree with Mr. Obama’s call to rapidly withdraw from Iraq. ”
Here’s Rasmussen’s recent polling:
The War in Iraq is a very important issue for 59% of voters. This month, the Democrats hold an 11-point lead over the Republicans on that issue. Last month, the Democrats led by just two points on that issue. A separate tracking survey has consistently found that six-out-of-ten Americans want troops home from Iraq within a year.
…’consistent’, ‘within a year’?
That must be a different America to one Karl Rove lives in then?
No wonder the sad fat f#cker’s Republican Reich is in tatters! He’s living in the WRONG country!
Hello Karl, right plan, wrong country! When you find that parallel universe, where facts don’t matter, and reality is what you say it is, then hey, you’ll be back in the Whitehouse and sending emails to Alberto Gonzalez all day, and bombing the crap outa little pisspot places in the Middle East and telling the press to go take a leap.
Man, but Obama is ‘arrogant’!!!!!!!!!!!!
These people are fantacists!
“An Obama aide says the goal of halving poverty in 10 years was key to Edwards’ endorsement.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
I’d reckon that means that Edwards gets to run something heading towards this end in an Obama administration. So he either gets to be a ‘poverty tzar’, run this project from the VP office, or has some other powerful job offer on the table. If Obama signing onto this project actually was the clincher, Edwards would want more than the promises that either one of them would give him.
So Pancho you’re saying Obama was bought off Edwards , sleezy new style politic
with Hillary’s claim that white people wouldn’t vote for Obama,”
Don’t you read any Primary results at all. they do not NOW. hillary is telling the truth , something Obama has trouble in doing
704
Ron
Finn couldn’t slap down a souffle Ron.
But then, someone who hears butterflies chirping would believe anything, right?
Hush Ron. And ’sleezy’ has an ‘a’ in it, outside of Dr. Seuss books.
Some of West Virginia’s Greatet Hits:
http://www.236.com/news/2008/05/14/west_virginian_voters_greatest_1_6518.php
I’m glad Hillary’s last campaign act is hitching her ride to these places. Go Democrat.
707
Ron
One word: Indiana
Tell us how many black votes and how many white votes Obama got there, and then try again.
What is wrong with you, apart from the chirping butterflies in your head?
Pancho at 709
You have to agree with Eric Hardy, yes, we know who he is – he’s the next President of the United States of America.
Catrina – how about his sign? What a character!
So Pancho ,
The writer has a political agenda to slight WV people & finds 7 or 8 idiots
Hillary got 239,000 votes , your credibilty of listing 7 out of 239,000 is pathetic
Obama got 91,000 votes , any anti obama journo , could find 7 whaco’s there also. You credibilty is slipping
chirp
Is It Now Obama’s Party?
“On Tuesday night, Clinton scored a 41-point win in West Virginia. Then, less than 24 hours later, more parts of the Democratic Party began coalescing around Obama. ”
…
“As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell said on TODAY, “Just when she was trying to get back on her feet, Hillary Clinton had the rug pulled out from under her.” What yesterday signaled, more than anything else, was that the Democratic Party is now becoming Barack Obama’s party, no matter what happened in West Virginia and might happen next week in Kentucky.”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
There’s that wonderful word again – ‘coalescing’.
Uncle Ron at 713
On the subject of credibility, a while back you suggested the following:
Do you stand by your words – or was that simply rhetoric?
*twinkle*
Pancho
What you guys like Pancho don’t like , is I’ve exposed your FL “progressive based ” political correct elitist views. Because you know the Public will p…on such views , you falsely pretend to be ‘centre’. At least Robert Boland has the convictions courage to proudly say what he stands for
715
jaundiced view
But can they ‘chirp’ JV? Can they ‘chirp’?
Apparently all real Obama supporters aren’t actually people, they’re butterflies, and they, ar, um, they chirp.
Yes, we have this on good authority from the Torah Borer, and he’s a veritable mountain of information on this subject.
So, can you confirm, do they ‘chirp’?
takes a proud stand
Ronron, you had a cunning plan for Hillary a short time ago. Did she get back to you on it, or did she just hit you up for some spare change?
Just interested.
707
“So Pancho you’re saying Obama was bought off Edwards , sleezy new style politic”
Ron, Obama offering a position to Edwards would be no different to any other standard political deal, including when Hillary offered the position of VP to Obama in early March.
no butterflys that self admire all day like a love in , thats the butterfly chirp k/r
the elitists ones all dressed as pansy butterflys sprouting obama’s message to butterfly together
GhostWhoVotes – I like the implication that being involved in an anti-poverty initiative is ’sleezy’ politics.
Poor little bloke, being outraged at all these Obimbibots who can’t adequately be pidgeonholed is really getting to him.
How the numbers are stacking up:
During the month of April, 41.4% of Americans considered themselves to be Democrats. Just 31.4% said they were Republicans and 27.2% were not affiliated with either major party.
April was the third straight month that the number of Democrats topped 41%. Prior to February of this year, neither party had ever reached the 39% level of support. Rasmussen Reports tracks this information based upon telephone interviews with approximately 15,000 adults per month and has been doing so since November 2002
722
Ron
Awww, and you’re missin’ the love in, Ron.
chirp
KR at 720
I would not be holding my breath. Keep in mind that according to Ron he has already been sacked by the Clinton Campaign:
I don’t know what the current relationship is, but clearly there was some bad blood there somewhere.
Night all – a singularly barren conversation I must say, which is why I’ve been quiet. There are times when PB bubbles and times when it is simply flat. But I must dips me lid to “Robert Boland” who (apparently) has the courage of his convictions.
In any case, it’s an early night for me.
Rudy’s countdown to victory: http://www.236.com/video/?embed_video=1541038735
GhostWhoVotes
Offering a position to Edwards when he has pledged delegates is a sleezy buy off
typical of old style politics that Obama claims he doesn’t represent , he promises a new style politic , another phony promise.
Obama is just another Pollie , no different as a Pollie to Hillary who would have been prepared to offer the same ‘deal’
Pollies motives including Obama’s are typical but here some think he’s not a Pollie , almost a non Pollie saint
Onya Boland!
Good to see The Kid getting tougher with the Repugs after Bush had a crack at him today:
Obama Says Bush Falsely Accuses Him of Appeasement
“George Bush knows that I have never supported engagement with terrorists, and the president’s extraordinary politicization of foreign policy and the politics of fear do nothing to secure the American people or our stalwart ally Israel.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/O/OBAMA_BUSH?SITE=SCAND&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
—————
KR @ 718 – Oh, they’re chirping alright, the SD’s, as they coalesce around Barack- they only chirp when they’re happy, and contemplating a win in November. Their chirp is more like a bat than a butterfly though – they’ve been hidden away in the dark so long, these previously undecideds.
Ron, just as well we’ve got you here to fill Glen’s shoes LOL
Ron, Edwards’ ‘pledged delegates’ are free to vote for whomever they choose. They are in no way obligated to echo Edwards’ endorsement.
Unlike you Progressive , I’m frank which is why I answered GhostWhoVotes
clearly. Now tell me ‘progressive’ (incidently does it have a suffix ‘ideas’ so you can be inducted) what don’t you agree with in my #729
Is this just plain lying, or the greatest bit of self-delusion this side of, say, the Torah Borer?
Here’s Karl, again:
As Republican ranks declined, the number of independents and Democrats grew. Has the bottom been reached? It’s too early to know. But Americans are acknowledging progress in Iraq, economists are suggesting the economy will be in better shape this fall, and a recent ABC/Washington Post poll found GOP identification rising.
…now ask yourself: is this man sane?
John Withheld
yes you are correct , however Edwards you’d agree would have more influence over them switching to Obama than the 240 odd uncommitted SD’s ?
(also all the committed SD’s can switch eg. off Obama anytime also under the Dems rules thus re-inforcing your point)
John Withheld at 733
Yes, and no – there are safeguards built into Democratic Party rules that allow campaigns to protect their delegates. Each campaign may review its delegate lists and scratch people off who they think are at risk of not upholding pledges. But aside from this obscure fact, it seems that the Edwards delegation are already coalescing around Obama.
Ron, just like at the electoral college, any delegate can vote for anyone they like. But that’s not the point.
The point is Edwards doesn’t own the delegates and can’t sell them.
#736 [all the committed SD’s can switch eg. off Obama anytime]
I’m going to bed but will you give me a call urgently r/Ron if all the SD’s announce en masse their defection to Hillary overnight. I won’t mind being woken up for that. The number is: 1300 13 11 14
jaundiced view at 739
Oh – I’m so tempted to call the number just to get the punchline!
Thurs May 15:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AryJ4aS1Xf.kKdbpOS9HSAlT_b4F
Thurs May 15:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=ApE9xTEeexA6ScoWKtS5_oAxvTYC
Thurs May 15:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=ApE9xTEeexA6ScoWKtS5_oAxvTYC
Wed May 14:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AoD3yDkN_mUEv9_BE0CYWxJR_b4F
The twittering of the crickets, the chirping of lepidoptera and the steady crackling of borers has taken it’s toll. My earwigs are beside themselves with confusion, all me bloody babel fish have bailed out, leaving one no choice but the sensible and blissful acoustic imperative of a decent night’s sleep.
The way vibrations have been resonating recently, sparrow fart tomorrow will be stentorian! Night all.
Catrina, the whole party/movement is is coalescing and it’s about time.
I just don’t think this is a sign of any sleezy deal, nor of a sleazy deal.
It could be a sleazy deel I suppose, but that hasn’t happened since 1912.
740
Catrina
Lifeline
(I cheated, googled it!)
Catrina thanks for only partly quoting my probably February remarks. Had you quoted in full that blog or an earlier one that day , you know that 3 months ago I statistically forcast accurately the general delgate result about 30 primarys in advance.
I appreciate you highlighting my psephological stats given at the time my colleague D and I were competing on 3 months out Primary results. And my result is close & his out but only 2% , but enough for a wine bottle he owes me.
Of course at the time i didn’t know Obama would sell out his own black race at Philly to save his own political hide and personally make race an issue nor his subsequent other policy gafes making Hillary now by far he more electable of the two. The other bloger , my pet fraudwit parrot has squeaked. boyleswit
John Withheld at 742
I agree with you completely – this is not the sleaze deal as Uncle Ron would have us believe. However, as sleazy deals have been brought up front and center, I have to ask myself why Uncle Ron has been cross-dressing for Huckabee.
The following are Ron’s comments on his attempts to get in with Huckabee Campaign:
I know, it’s a worry.
ha, not only a lifeline to your mental health, but those numbers bring up this site too:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/LEcat/LE1201-1300.html
…which tabulates all the lunar eclipses of the 13th century!
Loooooooooooonar!
Can I hear the butterflies chirping?
Ron:
“Of course at the time i didn’t know Obama would sell out his own black race at Philly”
…which is why they are now voting for him at rates like 90%?
God you say the dumbest things, they just do not make one iota of sense. How do you possibly construe his Philly speech as selling out his own race?
Are you mad, or something?
Yep, must have sold them out, because they sure as hell stopped voting for Hillary. Is that your definition of ’sell out’?
738
John Withheld Says:
Ron, just like at the electoral college, any delegate can vote for anyone they like. But that’s not the point.
The point is Edwards doesn’t own the delegates and can’t sell them.
No , thats not the point. This is politics & you should know Edwards’s delegates are there to loyally support him, he won them & the Edwards voters anticipate his delegates Edward lead. If he says privately , guys to switch to Obama , which he will, and which they will be very powerfully influenced by , and in return Edwards got a ‘deal’ off Obama. If you think they are still equally available to be won by Hillary ?
k/r
Obama did sell out his own black race at Philly. His black voters may or may not know that yet. But are still voting as between a white and black Democrat voting 90%+ for Obama , his policys must be very good compared to hillary ?
how about having the courage to tell me in detail which Obama policys vs Hillary’s attracted 90%+ black votes.? You can NOT, can you
Catrina @742
So Uncle Ron is the Member for Mayo?
Well k/r having a problem are you in having the courage to tell me in detail which Obama policys vs Hillary’s attracted 90%+ black votes for Obama ???
can not be that hard surely
And as for my parrot , clearly a miserable life bloging all day & night then going through 4, 000 blogs ovver the past 3 months. Thats why the Huck satire so blatantly obvious to all others at the time is not understood by unhappy ones
Ron @ 748
Yes, politics is about influence.
No, two progressive politicians agreeing to do something about poverty is not a sleazy deal.
749
Ron
It’s about character Ron, and something you really seem not to have, a certain ineffable sincerity that draws people to what you’re saying so that they believe there is a way to a better future. Not by slagging someone else, not by creating fear of the ‘other’, but by rising above that and seeing the common humanity and the common purpose.
Now, us grown ups know that’s fine and dandy, but it’s a tough world too, and yet his message is able to acknowledge that but not descend to it.
That’s why they are voting for him Ron, and if you cannot understand that, then that’s too bad. If you think they are wrong, fine. But you cannot ‘prove’ they are deluded, any more than you can prove that pink swans don’t exist. Yet you seem to have some bizarre notion that it’s able to be quantified, and you, the great Ron, can ‘prove’ it does not add up.
You can’t. And we’ve seen you demonstrate that simple fact for so long now it’s beyond even being funny any more.
750
John Withheld
‘withheld’ , an apt name indeed , of course preceded by ‘cells’
FINNS , I’ve now got almost as many parots as you. a parrot , ‘CellsWithhed’
John Withheld at 750
I honestly don’t know if Uncle Ron is a member of anything. Acording to Ron he has been rejected by Clinton, rejected by Huckabee, and according to the following comments he has also been rejected by the Obama Campaign:
If Uncle Ron is the Member for Mayo, I would be impressed, after all, he has not been doing to well in the ‘advisor’ role – but just between you and me I figure that may be linked to the cross-dressing episode. But that’s just an ungrounded suspicion based on his words and as most people here can confirm, they don’t add up to a Hillary Bean.
Catrina, good luck, watch out for low flying butterflies (listen for the chirping, that helps! LOL)
Ron, you are such a seriously deluded person.
ZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
John Withheld , think parrot should be re-named appropriately as ‘CellsWithheld’
Obviously I embarrased you over your lack of political nous over Edward being bought off with a sleezy deal for his delegates, embarrased by your political naevity. Such amateur political comment by you doesn’t cut mustard here
And Catrina , well my petal parrots I’m off for beauty sleep llike all other normal people.You my pixy parots can stay up all night looking over 000’s of months old political blogs , alone of course , oh what a happy & intellectual parrot I’ve got. Extra serve of butterfly seed in the morning. My pet fraudwit parrot has just squeaked with adoration. Boyleswit
KR at 756
Take care – and don’t worry about me, I have a can of butterfly spray ready for emergencies should they arise.
Ron at 757
Don’t you worry about those nasty men – they just don’t understand you. It’s not like mother and I, we known, we understand, now take your tablets and I’ll see you again in the morning.
An new article up on TPM – the end-of-time is near:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/05/obama_could_clinch_majority_of.php
The end of the beginning approaches.
elitebutterfly at 761
True, the beginning is almost upon us – but take care, Uncle Ron is running around with a butterfly net but is not too big a deal (he’s mainly covering the same ground again and again), the Greeensborough Gardener is puffing away with an insect repellent thing from the garage but from all accounts its past its use-by-date. But keep a look out for the toy-boys, apparently the Finnigans like pulling the legs of butterflies and betting on how long they live. It’s a dangerous world that we live in, but now is the moment – yes we can!
Uncle Eddy at 664
Uncle Eddy, daddy has spoken to you about this already – you know how he feels about your obsession and if mommy gets to know about it you know its going to get ugly. Now be a good boy and go back down and play with the other old folks – or do I need to push you down the stairs myself?
Anyway, I’m busy, I have some news to post!
Superdelegate Update:
Rep. Jim McDermott (WA) endorses Obama.
Direct from Seattle (the only place in America that knows how to make coffee)
http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/seattlepolitics/archives/138941.asp
Obama: 294.5 (288.5+6)
Clinton: 270 (271-1)
This puts Obama ahead of the First Lady by 17.5 delegates or 24.5 is we include the Pelosi family. Eddy – take a tablet, deal with it.
see y’all in the garden..zzzzz
elitebutterfly at 764
Goodnight, sleep tight!
While the folowing news may downgrade my obsequiousness factor, I am pleased to announce that Larry Cohen, the president of the Communication Workers of America and a super-delegate from D.C., will endorse Obama today.
An while quoting American media, note the coalescing keyword in the following comment:
However, this endorsement has not been ratified by the DCW team – so keep an eye out for another post with updated numbers.
And interesting development.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24647139#24647139
One of the golden rules of the internet is that when anyone raises Hitler or the Nazi Party you know the they have already lost the argument. Eddy, Ron, the Gardner, the toy-boys, you know this already – right?
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Oh gosh, Uncle Eddy is not going to be happy.
Superdelegate Update:
Rep. Howard Berman (CA) and Rep. Henry Waxman (CA) come out for Obama. Eddy, I’m kjust the messenger – don’t shot me! Its terms of the numbers this means Obam takes +2 over the last post to a raw lead of 19 and if we throw into the equation the Pelosi factor its a lead of 26 delegates.
Obama: 296.5 (290.5+6)
Clinton: 270.5 (271.5-1)
And just for everyone maintaining a calendar of events, I’m planning on throwing all of my Uncles under the bus in just eleven days from now (give or take a couple of days). I’ll be busy writing their obituaries (because I care about these guys). I’ll be nice about it – but I’ll be fair as well. While I’ll have some nice words for the Gardner, I’ll be struggling with the multiple personalities that Ron has raised – perhaps if I speak of Clinton, Huckabee, and Obama – his soul will finally rest in peace, but the toy-boys remain, and how can I really settle with The Finnigans after such a dust-up, will they rest or will they walk across the wilderness raising doubts and asking strangers for answers to questions that nobody is really interested in? I don’t know all of the answers, but I do know that a light is shining – all they have to do is walk towards the light and say the words – “yes we can”.
Superdelegate Update:
Uncle Eddy, I’m really sorry, but Larry Cohen just came out of the closet for Obama. It’s just not fair – I mean – where are all of those Hillary supporters? After all – we need some competition is we want to call this a race.
Anyway, here is Larry’s message …
So the numbers break out at the following …
Obama: 297.5 (291.5+6)
Clinton: 270.5 (271.5-1)
For the arithmetically challenged, that means that Obama is 27 supers ahead of the First Lady.
Please replace is with if in my initial sentence in my previous comment.
It seems that Edwards has some pull after all.
May 15, 2008, 10:44 AM
Steelworkers Endorse Obama
I know, you have to ask the question, why are these white Americans, these hard working white Americans, endorsing that black guy? I trust Ron – it’s the DNC – it’s pressure from the political machine. Don’t trust these working class endorsements – the members are probably all black guys are out to ditch the bitch. You can’t trust them because black guys only look out for themselves.
Umm, my 771 post is in moderation – really it wasn’t that bad.
*smile*
Yes, freedom of speech prevails!
maybe not – it’s still pending moderation
Take two – with the objective of moderation denial
It seems that Edwards has some pull after all.
May 15, 2008, 10:44 AM
Steelworkers Endorse Obama
I know, you have to ask the question, why are these white Americans, these hard working white Americans, endorsing that black guy? I trust Ron – it’s the DNC – it’s pressure from the political machine. Don’t trust these working class endorsements – the members are probably all black guys are out to ditch the b!tch. You can’t trust them because black guys only look out for themselves.
Ron, good morning, u did well holding the fort against the obama marauders last night.
i notice one of your parrots, Catrina with a C, the sound of one hand clapping of the Obamabots here is not enough for her, she has now perfected the sound of one finger clicking. Amazing.
Catrina 763,
Who’s your daddy?
Echoing Finns – Ron your the Omega Man holding out against the nutters in the late evening, early morning!
Finns,
Just read through the “Obamaphile’s tosh” and Ron beat them all, again. For someone that no one takes any notice of, who allegedly can’t write or spell, who supposedly can’t maintain an argument, he had the parrot symphony chirping in a cacophony of cretinous cooing.
The parrot’s spend so much time kissing up against each other, I’m sure they will all catch chirpies.
They study him, they abuse him, they misrepresent him and they play the gang bully against him. Yet he comes out triumphant every time with his integrity in tact and his logic untrammelled.
Beauty, Ron.
Ahh, GG, just as delusional as ever. Good to see.
Another Super night, eh boys?
Clinton is dying by the day, and you have lost the argument that she’s ‘more electable’, because well, she hasn’t been elected.
Sad for you I guess, but you can always come here and throw your little tantrums and slag off the posters who don’t quite see Clinton as the winner of the Democratic nomination.
Maybe you could take up with the Flat Earth Society too, I hear they are a bit short of members. You’d all fit right in just fine.
GG, someone should do a PhD on how many times The Man from Showy River calls whoever disagreed with him “deluded” or “delusional”. Amazing from the master linguist.
778
Greeensborough Growler
Your man love for the Torah Borer is touching Growler, but you cannot be serious about him beating anything except his head against a wall.
It’s a continuous stream of garbled nonsense, but if you think there’s anything to it, well, you are of course quite welcome to it.
You make a lovely couple, actually.
781
The Finnigans
Oh, Finn, the guy who writes in Indonesian and then thinks this proves something about me!
How clever you are to have such a low threshold for making sense. Makes life easy I guess, you never have to be wrong.
The media has shifted attention away from Hillary. The stories are now firmly on Obama – his gathering support and the contest with the Republicans. For them, Hillary is a sideshow. Storywise, she’s out there with Huckabee, which is well-fitting in its own way. She is fast-becoming no more than a curiosity.
779
John Withheld
Did you say ‘delusional’? Watch out, Finns has trouble with that word apparently.
784
elitebutterfly
Did you say Clinton’s a ’sideshow’?
Well, yes, it is, and we’ve got some of the clowns to prove it!
Ron @ 757
Obviously nothing.
Embarrassed? No.
Lack of nous? No.
Naive? No.
Able the spell, reason cogently and argue coherently? Yes
And you?
Obama has picked up 9 pledged delegates on top of the 4 supers so far today. 8 of them from the sleezemerchant, and one in NC on further counting (which gives Clinton -1): http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/15/11363/3895/470/516168
Good morning Kirribilli Removals and all other political tragics!
Reality check: Obama will be the nominee, like it or not! Edwards accepts it, so do his super delegates! The only deluded nutbags are Hillary, her supporters and Ron! If you think the Democratic National Committee will magically give the nod to Hillary, you’re living in fantasy land.
RCP still has Obama beating McCain and the Dems a whopping 13% ahead of the Repuglies.
So, to the clowns, what’s the bad news again?
790 KR
I predict the answer will be something along the lines of
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May15.html
vs
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May15.html
So , of course, Clinton is the Democratic Presidential Nominee. Forget all about that democracy and voting and stuff.
P.S.
Chirp
789
Progressive
Mornin’ Progressive, you sure have this bit spot on about Ron:”you’re living in fantasy land.”
But we must pity the poor sods, they’re clearly not all there upstairs.
yes kr, his ronship is unfathomably daft. but i like it. he can be relied for nonsense and helps fill in the dull spots in the blog. and he has brought out some fine arguments from others. btw….”low threshold for making sense”….luv it.
791
Kevin
yep, I think that’s their last line of defence (da fence?) and they’re sitting on it!
Needless to say, those numbers will start moving now that Obama is the nominee, as Karl Rove himself maintains, but we’ll leave the lost little darlings in their ramblings.
Hillary: it would be a terrible mistake to vote for McCain over Obama. Did you get that Ron/Finns/GG
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/14/clinton/index.html
Oh no, it’s my stalker parrot again, quawk. quawk, quawk
a good day to all, the money is awaiting……
Catrina, given your authority on all such matters what is the latest totals for PDs and SDs and what % does Obama need now??
Morning all,
The SD’s have been frisky overnight I see. RCP has bumped up Obama’s SD lead from 15 yesterday afternoon to 19 this morning. On top of that The Kid’s national average lead has jumped 0.5 from 7.2 yesterday to 7.7 today.
Meanwhile over on Slate, the Deathwatch has smacked Hillary down a further 1.1 to a very soggy 1.8 on the back of the Edwards endorsement, the further SD endorsements and the various Union endorsements. Slate is confident of Obama hitting the magic number after Oregon next week:
“Because he waited, Edwards’ decision to finally choose a horse reinforces the “it’s over” story line. Watch this narrative get another boost next week when Obama clinches the pledged delegate lead for good. (He’ll hit a majority of the 3,254 pledged delegates even if he narrowly loses Oregon.)”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191489/
All of this negative momentum for Hillary clearly means one thing – All of the SDs are about to throw their weight behind Clinton and the PDs will follow them like rats after the Pied Piper. Yes, it’s perfectly obvious that the one who is most electable is the one who hasn’t won the election. Clearly.
795
Andrew, she’s talking louder and louder as the days pass:
“I’m going to work my heart out for whoever our nominee is. Obviously, I’m still hoping to be that nominee, but I’m going to do everything I can to make sure that anyone who supported me … understands what a grave error it would be not to vote for Sen. Obama.”
Yeah, hoping is that last thing left. Hoping she can claw back some her $20m and get a good seat on the Obama bus.
FG at 798, you finally get it. Ignore all the numbers, Hillary has got this in the bag
Do we see a new team player at wing defence (WD) called Hillary off the bench at last?:
“HRC: BUSH COMMENTS ‘OFFENSIVE,’ ‘OUTRAGEOUS’ ”
Hillary Clinton joined the chorus of Democrats who have criticized President Bush’s comments about Barack Obama, saying that his comparison “of any Democrat to Nazi appeasers is both offensive and outrageous.”
This opportunity was taken to line up beside Obama. She might really get on board, by the look of it. It doesn’t seem she was trying to make a back-door point for herself this time:
“I disagree that any president would ever meet with a leader of a country with which we had such deep and profound differences as Iran, for example,” she said. “However I believe there should be diplomatic engagement, which President Bush has resisted from the very beginning. So I think I have more in common with Sen. Obama and the Democratic position in our understanding of what we have to do to re-engage with the world.”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/15/1028185.aspx
I wonder if Hillarians will folllow their leader into the Obama fold – if so, welcome to ‘The Great Coalescence’ chaps. If not, it’s going to be a long cold winter for you.
Hillary is sounding defeated, and magnanimously so.
It looks like Macca’s hundred years has received a discount, down to five:
“By January 2013, America has welcomed home most of the servicemen and women who have sacrificed terribly so that America might be secure in her freedom,’’ Mr. McCain said at the Columbus Convention Center. “The Iraq War has been won. Iraq is a functioning democracy, although still suffering from the lingering effects of decades of tyranny and centuries of sectarian tension. Violence still occurs, but it is spasmodic and much reduced.’’
…tell ‘im he’s dreamin’.
Whilst US troops occupy Iraq, there can only be nationalistic and sectarian forces directed at them, particularly while they prop up a corrupt and sectarian government.
Looks like Macca has read the polls, but he still can’t quite get the message.
801
jaundiced view
I do believe I can just detect it, yes, it’s coming through on the transducers now, a very faint signal, but yes, there it is, unmistakable really, it’s Hillary Clinton, yes she’s beginning to chirp!
Chirp! Chirp!
Hear that? She’s started chirping for Obama.
According to cnn
Barack Obama
Pledged:1,608
Superdelegates291
Total:1,899
Hillary Clinton
Pledged:1,445
Superdelegates274
Total:1,719
Needed to Win: 2,025
Does anyone know how many pledged and SD are left
I am very pleased to see that Hillary is jumping back on board the Democratic Party bandwagon after some straying from the party line in the last month or so. I’m glad to see that she seems to be trying to finish the race with dignity now and then help with the November campaign. Instead of denigrating her, I think she should be commended if this is the path that she takes.
AI I appreciate your kind words, I think Hillary has forfeited the right to commendation at this point. Too little, too late one may say
Andrew: Demconwatch is the best place to go for all your delegate numbers imo.
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
Currently 189 pledged delegates and 233 super delegates remain.
806
Al
If she can only put that Alien back in the box, and quickly, all should be good!
Mornin’ Bludgers,
Thurs May 15: Inside every casket lies a Team Player just a-chirpin’ for release.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AsOF81fYAPbJTqBdxzD5f9Q0vTYC
Mornin’ Ecky, looks like you’ve nailed it,(tsssh, booom!) even if the Three Tenors keep singing the same aria from “Hilly git ya gun” (with banjo orchestra).
KR 2 804 – [yes she’s beginning to chirp]
I can’t hear high tones like that any more sadly, but everything is starting to point to chirping. I guess we’ll be able to confirm when Hillary’s chirping when we see her rubbing her legs together. I believe that’s how the sound is produced – in crickets anyway:
SOUNDING LESS LIKE A CAMPAIGN?
We’re on the campaign trail with Sen. Clinton, but you really have to listen very closely here at the Jones family farm in Aberdeen to hear any hint she’s fighting for the Democratic nomination.
Maybe we’re getting a bit ahead of things, maybe its just the place and time, maybe its that we’re all looking for clues about her intentions, but the vibe feels different.
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/15/1027329.aspx
——————-
This is an interesting bit from what Hillary said after the Bush comments:
So I think I have more in common with Sen. Obama and the Democratic position in our understanding of what we have to do to re-engage with the world.”
The implication in that is that she also has had something in common with the Bush approach – and we know that’s true after the ‘obliteration’ remarks about Iran – but it seems she is backing away from that aggressive position to increase the difference between the Repugs ad the Obama Dems by aligning herself with his policy of engagement with enemies. I never thought she would change tack after the Iran comments and use an expression like ‘re-engage withe the world’.
What a chameleon – but at least she is now using that skill for the common good.
812
jaundiced view
Hmm, Hillary ’stridulating’ (for that is what crickets do with their legs) will make a nice change from ‘triangulating’!
EC @ 810 – Another beauty. That nail analogy fits with Barack’s position on diplomacy, including Iran:
“We’ve had an administration that thinks the only tool is a hammer, and as a consequence, everything looks like a nail. And we’ve done incredible damage to our security and standing around the world”
This is the approach I’m looking forward to seeing in action. It’s why Obama had to be supported.
812 jv
Actually, Hillary admits she is no longer a Democrat in that statement. Could she be thinking of running as an independent?
“So I think I have more in common with Sen. Obama and the Democratic position in our understanding of what we have to do to re-engage with the world.”
The only reason to point out that she has more in common with “the Democratic position” is if you don’t consider yourself to be a Democrat. But we already knew that. The Big O told us she was a Republican a while ago.
Diogenes – [Hillary admits she is no longer a Democrat in that statement]
She does too, and I’d postulate that she made that distinction unconsciously because it is the Obama Democrats now, and she feels out in the cold compared to her expectations of being the titular head herself.
Kirribilli Removals: Am I being too hard on Ron? LOL
If McCain had any brains, he’d completely distance himself from Bush and run as a left wing Republican, but that still wouldn’t save him in November.
Assuming it’s a high enough voter turnout, particularly among blacks and young people, and most of Hillary’s people stick with the Democrat brand(Edwards should help winning over white voters for Obama), Senator Obama will win, albeit maybe narrowly – then I will get extremely drunk!
Pardon me for interrupting the debate about whether Ron is a dyslexic savant or just a naughty boy, but, if I may, I’d like to intrude some psephology.
At the behest of the Clintonistas I’ve been regularly perusing electoral-vote.com in order to see how the candidates are going head to head with McCain in individual states.
This has been the subject of some debate on this site. The Clintonistas have pointed to the fact that the Clinton versus McCain map shows her beating McCain (winning Ohio and Florida, for instance) whilst the Obama v McCain map shows Obama losing those two states and being beaten by McCain overall. KR and others have pointed to the fact that Obama is only losing Ohio by a fraction and that the map reveals that McCain is hanging on to many supposedly “Red” states by a slender thread; in short, Obama brings more states into play and only a small shift in his favour could turn a loss into a thumping landslide.
Something else, however, had been worrying me. The RCP national average (Obama v McCain) currently shows Obama with a healthy lead of 4.4%. Now, I understand that it is possible to win the national vote and lose the electoral college; it happened in 2000. But with a 4.4% lead?
Some of you might recall a similar discussion in the run up to Rudd’s victory, in which various Tory’s desperately clung to the idea that Howard would repeat 1998 and win a majority of seats with a minority of the vote. Our very own Possum, among others, pointed out the increasing improbability of this happening when the margin creeps beyond 2%. I don’t know how directly this translates to the situation in the US, but I suspect a similar logic applies. I would certainly challenge anyone to find an historic example of a US presidential candidate losing an election with a 4.4% lead.
So how can we explain this? Here is a link to the RCP national average:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Check out the graph at the bottom. It racks the RCP average over time and clearly shows that Obama had something of a monthus horribillus from mid-March to late April, no doubt associated with pastorgate and bittergate. It also show that he has since recovered a solid lead over Bomb Bomb. If you check out the data that electoral-vote.com uses you’ll note two curious things. One is that it uses the latest poll (from whatever source) rather than a poll average. In most states this is understandable as these statewide polls are not done very often and it would involve using very old data. But in some states a poll average would be possible and the site’s refusal yo use one appears to have produced distortions. Wisconsin (which you would surely expect Obama to win based on its demography, its history and how he did in the primary) is a case in point. Electoral-vote has him losing it based on one poll from Rasmussen on 6 May, yet there were three polls taken in April (during his monthus horribillus) which all had him ahead. The RCP and Pollster averages have him ahead in Wisconsin, but electoral-vote gives it to McCain on the basis of one poll by Rasmussen, which common sense would indicate has a good chance of being rogue.
Ohio is given to McCain on the basis of one poll taken back in April that gives McCain a 1% lead. The data is out of date. It’s based on one poll with a big margin of error. Consequently – gigo.
I have no problem with the general concept of electoral-vote. But forgive me if I take its predictions with a ton of salt until it gets some decent data – at least until it starts using poll averages where possible. I’ll keep my eye on the national average which is an average of multiple polls – some taken on a daily basis.
818 rb
Gold Star! I was going to make the same point yesterday, but much less eloquently. The analogy with the Ruddster is apposite. I recall worriedly adding up each possible seat to fall and struggling with Rudd losing despite winning the popular vote. And then Possum made me much more relaxed. I think the same will happen in the US.
Like in recent years, the election will be decided in Ohio, Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania, Missouri.
Wildcards are perhaps New Mexico, Virginia, North/South Carolina, maybe another supposedly safe red state in the South if the black vote is much larger this year?
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/TheNote/story?id=3105288&page=1
The MSM summary.
R Bollard (aka Boland) – Good analysis. Add to the current polling of 4.4% advantage to Obama the likely jump in Dem support nationally after the nomination is settled, and the national lead over McCain will remind us of 1980’s interest rates. The state-by-state variations will then be of zero significance.
The other thing to remember is how wrong the RCP averages were on Indiana and NCarolina. There seems to be a reliability problem with the averaging technique due to the differences in methodology between pollsters, which do not always simply ‘cancel each other out’, but sometimes aggregate into greater inaccuracies. See Teagan Goddard’s opinion on it for more.
Cogent RB.
I noted the RCP averages for Obama/McCain and the Dems/Reps back at 790 to get some sanity into the discussion, but your argument is a fine attack on the very methodology of electoral-vote’s maps. I recall Kos making the point it wasn’t all that good, but you’ve done a great job in showing just why.
Pity the dyslexic savant and his merry band of pranksters won’t be able to grasp it.
Good analysis RB, but I don’t think we should dismiss individual state polls either. Florida scares the hell out of me, I’ll even go as far as to say, I don’t think Obama can win it. I think he’s fine in Pennsylvania and should be ok in Ohio, plus as progressive points out he brings a whole other bunch of states into play. Having said that….. Florida scares the hell out of me!
Could those who, in a non-ironic context, refer to Obama as a ‘black’, explain why? His mother is white, his father black. He is neither black nor white. Why is the black half of his heritage his racially defining characteristic?
Do the national polls in the US take into account intention to vote at all? Figures that are quoted such as 47.2/42.8 (Obama/McCain) suggest that pollsters just ask people which of the candidates they prefer (since turnout is nowhere near 90%). I’m just wondering if McCain might be sunk by the turnout for Obama, whatever the polls say.
I would again simply ask this question. Which states does Obama bring into play?
I have asked this a number of times, and only one person has answered me, suggesting North and South Carolina and a couple of other states, such as Indiana.
On my analysis, no longer confined to electoral-vote, Colorado and Iowa fall to Obama. This is not a bizarre result in any way, though. Indiana is not a state that Obama can win. Neither North or South Carolina are likely, although South Carolina could, at a stretch, fall into the ‘maybe’ camp.
So: what states are people suggesting Obama could win?
Regarding the 4.4 per cent national lead, this is quite easy to explain. If Obama is picking up support in southern states – by, for example, mobilising the black vote – but is not going to win those southern states, and is picking up heavily on left-leaning California and New York (as examples), which were always going to be Democratic, then the national vote count can be distorted.
I will admit that I have not done any analysis of the differences between the way states voted in 2004 (in terms of percentages) and how things are looking in the polls. However, there are possible explanations for the discrepancies that do not paint the rosy picture (or should that be blue picture
) for Obama that many on here suggest is the real situation.
To win, based on the data that we have, Obama needs to win Ohio or Florida. I would not be so quick to write off Florida, by the way. If Clinton campaigns for him there hard, he is close.
Slime ball Bush does a snide remark about Nazi ‘appeasers’ to the Israeli parliament, and the MSM run with the ball.
Chris Matthews stops it right in it’s tracks with this brilliant exchange where he hammers a rightwing shock jock on what Chamberlain actually did, and when the dumb slob finally admits he does not know:
You don’t understand there’s a difference between talking to the enemy and appeasing. What Chamberlain did wrong, most people would say, is not talking to Hitler, but giving him half of Czechoslovakia in 1938. That’s what he did wrong. Not talking to somebody. Appeasement is giving things away to the enemy.
…and Matthew’s wiped the floor with him.
Hardball, indeed:
http://thinkprogress.org/2008/05/15/kevin-james-appeaser/
…if the rightwing talking parrots who keep taking Bush’s dribble and repeating it ad nauseum aren’t careful it will come back to bite them on the bum.
Many of the polls indeed ask people if they intend to vote or not.
Re 822 – The article about poll methodology and averaging is actually from the Wall Street Journal’s ‘Numbers Guy” some time ago. It’s an interesting article:
The basic objection to combining polls is that different surveys, conducted differently, at different times, with different sample sizes, don’t belong in the same stew. Part of the problem is that pollsters often don’t fully disclose their technique, making it difficult to know whether it would be appropriate to combine their results with others. “If pollsters disclosed more about how their polls were conducted, we would be in a better position to know which polls are likely to be right, and which ones can be safely ignored,”
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/poll-mash-ups-gain-currency-critics-277/
Timbo, I think it is way too early to write off FL, or a good many other states ftm. He’s been on a solo run for the most part, but from now on he is going to have a lot of company. He has a huge grass-roots following he can mobilize, heaps of money, natural campaign talent and a party that is desperate for a win. He can do anything, in my chirpy opinion.
Timbo #824. I don’t think anyone expects Obama to win Florida (unless the polls swing heavily towards him). But I wouldn’t be “scared” about it; he doesn’t need it. The electoral calculus of the lat two elections demanded a Dem victory in either Ohio or Florida – not both. I’m pretty confident of a Dem win in Ohio based on the evidence of the last mid-term elections (amongst other things). But Florida is comparitively immune to some of the factors pushing people towards the Dems. I could see Obama winning Texas before he wins Florida.
Hey,guys! i just spent a day with a man who sincerly thinks that Gays had a world wide conspiracy to infect Blood for tranfusions with AIDS. He also thinks that that Socialists are the AntiChrist’s agents, and that Bill Gates is Satan!
NO! .. he isn’t Ron!
For the record, I started out as a Clintonisto, but like many SDs, I would now vote for Obama.. this is despite having doubts about his gravitas.. a “new beginning”, fine, but a beginning of what? However, I had the same doubts about Rudd, and am happy to have been proved wrong!
RB at 820 a great analysis. I think Obama will improve v McCain with Hillary gone
Did I read correctly on here that an agreement between Obama and Edwards to fight poverty is somehow construed as a “sleazy deal” (or was it ’sleezy’?)? Like an agreement between Rudd Labor and the ACTU to wind back ‘WorkChoices’ was also a ’sleazy deal’? Or like an agreement between any number of celebrities, politicians, individuals and governments to ‘make poverty history’ is a sleazy deal? Or like Kyoto is a sleazy deal? All those politicians agreeing to work for the common good. It’s a disgrace!!
Polling in the US frequently uses demographic weighting, as we do in Australia, in order to obtain their results. The problem with this in non-compulsory voting countries and this election campaign in particular, is that it doesn’t account for significant shifts in the voting population.
With compulsory voting, census data can be used to obtain reasonable demographic weighting, but in America, concrete data is not readily available. Because of the engagement of Obama with young voters (typically very apathetic and low voter turnout) and a likely higher than normal African-American turnout, coupled with a low evangelical turnout and other disillusioned Republican groups after 8 years of Bush, the accuracy of polls can be completely changed by demographic weighting.
David @ 829,
This is and has always been at the heart of the Clinton versus Obama electability issue. Quite simply, Obama is likely to maximise his vote in States where the Dems already win and where they are likely to lose. Clinton on the other hand, has a real chance in Ohio and Florida which are required if the Dems are to win.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May15.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Clinton/Maps/May15.html
The Votemaster site has been a good one for tracking the reality.
GG at 839, at what point do you just give up? Clinton has been pushing electability this whole race, and guess what, she has LOST
DG at 829, I’d also add Nevada and new Mexico to that list, I think Indiana is a possibility, but yes you’re right about SC and NC, but I just can’t see FL, I don’t think anyone is suggesting he’s going to do Johnson in 64 or anything like that. I’ll be very nervous if it comes down to Ohio like it did in 04.
Great analysis, Robert @ 818. Because it has easy-to-navigate graphics and looks all purty, it’s tempting to think that the figures in electoral-vote.com mean a lot more than they do. Even leaving aside the limited use of polls 6 months before election day.
As much as you can criticise RCP averages on the basis that they give equal weight to the rogue polls (unlike, say, diving scores in the Olympics), they will give you a better idea of the general direction the result is going in, than picking a single poll you like and hoping for the best. As the cliche goes, the trend is your friend. For example, I don’t think Obama will win Iowa because the last poll has him 2% in front of McC; I believe he’ll win it because all 15 polls taken in the state, throughout all phases of good and bad news for him, have him beating McCain.
While a 4.4% loss in the national vote resulting in an election win is very very unlikely, intuitively it seems far more likely in the US than in Australia. Where there are 150 winner-take-all battles (HoR), to go down 4.4% in the popular vote but get up would require so many crushing defeats in dozens of seats, and so many narrow victories in so many dozens of others, as to beggar credibility. Less so where there are 51 battles among a population less homogeneous than Australia’s. It’s considerably easier to lose many significant contests by 10-15% (and it’s highly likely that McCain will), and get up by winning the really crucial ones by 1-3%.
It’s the number of contests (and the heterogeneity of them) that determines the difficulty of the result not following the popular vote. Imagine if all of the US was divided into 5 regions given equal clout, with the vote winner in each taking all– 3 regions to win the presidency– north-east, south-east, great lakes through mid-west, southwest and Pacific mountains, Pacific. In that scenario, it would be perfectly feasible for a Repub candidate to get hammered in the national popular vote (losing NE and Pacific by monumental margins), but get up through a modestly comfortable victory in the SE, and just squeak through by narrow margins in the other two.
#831 DG
So does the RCP poll giving Obama a 4.4% lead count people who don’t intend to vote?
If Obama and Clinton have inspired more people to vote than is normally the case, then intention to vote would seem to be crucial information.
Triton, I think ALL US polls ask that question. Chexk some of the commentary on pollster.com.
As for GG….sigh….
Triton,
I would suggest that you would need to check each poll individually. My bet would be that RCP would generally only include polls that use those who state a clear intention to vote and no others.
Nevada and New Mexico only add 10 electoral college votes. I discount Indiana. It still means that Obama must win either Ohio and Florida. If other people are writing of Florida, then that pretty much means Obama must win Ohio to take the presidency.
THE REAL DELEGATE NO’s THE DNC & OBAMABOTS ARE HIDING
Delegates from future Primarys= 189
uncommitted SuperDelegates = 351
Total available delegates still to be won = 540
Current Committed DELEGATE TOTALS: Obama 1968 Hillary 1909
Hillary needs only 56% of still current delegates available to win the Nomineeship
The figures correctly include MI & FL. To exclude them is inequitable branch stacking. When you look at the figures , no wonder the DNC Obama friendly leadership is both procrastinating on MI and FL and heavying SD’s to endorse Obama under threat of a black desertion from the Party. Why ?
Because Hillary can still win , and win easily. The fight continues Amigos ,
David Gould @ 829: I think that unless you have a short memory, “Which states does Obama bring into play? I have asked this a number of times,
only one person has answered me, suggesting North and South Carolina and a couple of other states, such as Indiana” is a little disingenuous unless you have a short memory or a generous definition of ‘couple’.
To plagiarise from post 147 and following where the issue was first raised– apart from NC and SC (and Ohio) there iiiiiis:
Definitely in play:
Nevada
New Mexico
Iowa
Colorado
Montana
In the ‘controversial states’ bracket with NC and SC:
Virginia
Indiana
Nebraska (it might be ‘definitely in play’ but the data is too scarce)
Unlikely (and small anyway), but he will at least force McCain to devote some resources to protecting them:
North Dakota
South Dakota
Alaska.
And I ain’t calling myself an expert on the topic. Just borrowing the observations of others supplemented by a little research.
The (seemingly) popular belief that the Dems must win Florida or Ohio (or, worse, that they must win both) to win the election is IMO bunkum.
PB profile: Andrew:
Andrew is the parsley on the quiche of life. Sometimes, you flick him away without a thought. Other times you devour him as a part of the bigger meal.
Ultimatley, not a good feed as there is nothing of substance there or any real reason for him to exist. Just an oxygen thief, really.
However, I will add here that if Obama wins both Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as Nevada and New Mexico, then my prediction of him having to win Ohio is incorrect. I will also admit that him claiming those four, as well as Colorado and Iowa, is a possibility. Again, though, my position is that this is an unlikely result (although not as unlikely as I perhaps thought initially.)
DG at 486, correct me if I’m wrong, Start off by saying Obama takes all tthe state that Kerry took in 04 (this may be a big assumption) thats 251 EVs add to this
Nevada 5
New Mexico 5
Colorado 9
Iowa 7
Thats 277 – without Ohio and without Florida
Simon,
You are correct. However, I have already placed Iowa and Colorado in my Obama pickup list. I have no idea why Montana is in that list. Where are you getting information that Montana is a possible Obama gain?
And I admit that I do not know why I discounted Nevada and New Mexico.
Based on the data, I cannot see how Indiana or North Carolina can be considered to be ‘in play’. South Carolina might be in play, but I doubt it.
Virginia, I concede, might be a possibility, based on the spread of polls there over the last few months.
So: I apologise.
Timbo,
Correct. I admitted this in post 850.
Ah, beat me to it David!
You guys are making me a little more optimistic, by the way.
However, my prediction at this stage is still that it will all come down to Ohio. (And Obama will win Ohio).
Having said that, New hampshire isn’t looking that crash hot for Obama (it’s only 4 EVs though)
#844 RB
This shows a list of McCain v. Obama national polls and has a “Not voting” column on the right:
http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php
That column shows a ‘-’ for almost every poll and tiny figures such as 3 or 4 for the rest, even though in 2004 about 44% didn’t vote. Maybe no one likes to say they don’t vote?
Triton,
My guess is that they are asking people who regularly vote. In other words, they already have a pool of regular voters whom they regularly poll. Thus, the non-voters have been already selected out.
Note that this could still mean that things are better for Obama than things appear if there are people who have never voted before coming into his camp. That is where I would be polling both my target group and the general populace to get some feel for the comparisons. I assume that they do this and adjust weightings accordingly, but given that we cannot see behind the curtain, so to speak, it is difficult to know for sure.
Ron,
I suggest instead of rehashing HRC campaign emails, you have a read of this article.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/delegate-scenarios-edwards-edition.html
Even including the full FL and MI delegations with no changes at all, Obama will likely only need 25% of the remaining superdelegates to achieve 2209 delegates.
In fact, don’t even bother reading it Ron. Just keep telling yourself: Hillary will win. Hillary will win. Hillary will win.
More pointless abuse from GG #849. If Andrew is parsely (which I personally love anyway) you are brussels sprouts. Meanwhile you could try replying to my arguments re electoral-vote or, alternatively, think of a colorful culinary metaphor. The choice is yours.
Winning any of Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Mexico and still manging to loose Ohio seems fairly unlikely in all honesty.
RB,
Seems you Obamaphiles don’t like it coming back but are more than happy to serve it up. As for pointless abuse, why not go back through Andrew’s posts. You are defending an arsewipe.
DG – this diary draws some threads together about shifting demographics and predictions of states that will be in play. Of course there are many other variables to consider (as there are when looking at something like an electoral vote prediction map) but these numbers should have Democrats feeling pretty confident. And this is not just polling, it is based on registration and primary turnout. Some highlights, given what is above:
This is premised on the mobilisation of one sector, before the youth vote (which is comparatively soaring) or the disenchantment with the Republicans is factored in. And given that Republican identification is down about 20%, it is unlikely that they will get as many votes as they did in 2004.
From http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/12/135827/153/346/514266
859 Al
Great article, must quote the closing.
EDIT: Or, if you prefer, there is Gail Collins’ scenario:
Given the Democratic Party’s innovative method of doling out delegates, all that’s necessary for her to snatch the nomination is:
1) A big, big win in Kentucky next Tuesday. Ideally, Obama should be limited to no more than 100 votes.
2) Oregon, scheduled for the same day, inexplicably breaks off and sinks into the Pacific Ocean.
3) Puerto Rico, clocking in on June 1, not only gives Clinton a huge majority, but also manages to become a state in advance of the vote.
4) Finally, on June 3 as the South Dakota polls open, Thomas Jefferson’s head on Mount Rushmore comes to life and starts shouting, “You go, girl.”
An ambitious scenario, true. But nothing less than we’ve come to expect from the most hard-working political family in American history.[\quote]
Remember that the polling in NC was so out because it was crosstabbed to 2004 turnouts. The black vote was grossly underestimated. If new sectors of the community are mobilised (and it is a fact that this is happening) this will not necessarily be reflected in polling. So beyond what RB points out above, this is another reason why those maps will not present a full picture.
Screwed up the quote flags, sorry.
Obama & Chicago and dirty politics & Capone.
Intimidate SD’s to endorse Obama (black vote will dessert , Mayor Koch & Adam
Ban MI/FL, the effective the voters of South Australia ,Tasmania & Northern Terr
Procrastinate for 4 months todate over MI & FL admission
thereby allow left Media falsely to show Obama’s lead w/o MI & FL for 4 months ,
Get 90% + black vote in Primarys (against a fellow Democrat , a white Democrat
and claim this is the new style of politics , fair & clean
This shows Obama represents 3rd world strong arm rorting style politics(Obama has learnt well of his mates Rezko (fcoruption conviction & Ayers (FBI declared terrorist) Whereas Hillary a normal Pollie , in comparison is clean
and expect all 17 million cable using & internet cogent Hillary voters to vote for you. Hillary needs only 56% of still current delegates available 2 win the Nominee
Boy would I love to see this:
‘Conyers told us that Rove has a week to appear before his committee. If he doesn’t, said Conyers, “We’ll do what any self-respecting committee would do. We’d hold him in contempt. Either that or go and have him arrested.”‘
http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0508/Conyers_Were_closing_in_on_Rove.html
A bit more airing of Republican dirty laundry to keep Rovians on the backfoot.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings
This is a great site. Thanks for putting me onto it, Pancho.
Obama is holding a rally in Tampa the day after Oregon and Kentucky. Remembering that the day after WV, he went to MI to announce that Edwards was on board, I wonder who will be the guest of honour in FL? Someone that the state owes a favour?
DG – tops isn’t it? This explosion of online good guy geeks who know all sorts of weird stuff (looking at you Possum) is great. Certainly helps shift downcast moods and predictions to have people outside the interior crunching and explaining numbers to the excluded footsoldiers.
Hey David,
While you’re being generous/ conciliatory, I would have to concede that on the current evidence I was overenthusiastic, and Montana is somewhere between the ‘controversial’ and ‘unlikely’ camps. More evidence would need to roll in (if anyone could be bothered compiling it given the relative insignificance of the state).
As silly as it would be to say ‘it all hinges on Montana’ (I’m sure that given the time I could manufacture some bodgy historical argument to make it today’s WV!), Montana is the kind of state where Obama at least has to put the fear of god into McCain, to justify himself as the correct tactical choice of candidate– given that he’s giving away Florida where HRC would have had a shake at it, and he’ll probably need to work harder than she would have in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio and arguably Michigan. As someone pithier than me said before: more of a 50 states strategy, to get maximum leverage from his (presumed) cash advantage over McC.
Or to put a similar point into less subtle language: those running the tired line ‘Obama is only popular among blacks and white intellectual elites’ have got some explaining to do re: his consistent popularity through the mid-west, south-west and Pacific NW. We’re not just talking about him winning the primaries by (according to the stereotype) marshalling whatever University students and hardcore left-wingers there might be in those states’ Dem parties– but about him doing far better in those state’s polls than HRC would have done. None of those regions have large black populations and (apart from parts of New Mexico, and maybe Seattle at a stretch) they’re not overwhelmed by ‘intellectual elites’ either.
Robert Boland
#820
Note our history Professor has wandered into the area of psephology but he’s clearly dyslexic but crafts literary prose to dress up that hole
Stick to teaching kids what happened yesterday Robert , you can first read that from a book beforehand.
On your very sophisticated form of analysis , the 300 million Americans only have to take 20 seconds to click onto ClearRealPolitics , see a meaningless National RCP figure & they know the winner.
No one will come out to vote , leaving Bush still as POTUS , bemused
Hahahahaha! McCain and the Republican’s latest attempted swiftboat has just spluttered to a holt:
‘Two years ago, just after Hamas won the Palestinian parliamentary elections, I interviewed McCain for the British network Sky News’s “World News Tonight” program. Here is the crucial part of our exchange:
I asked: “Do you think that American diplomats should be operating the way they have in the past, working with the Palestinian government if Hamas is now in charge?”
McCain answered: “They’re the government; sooner or later we are going to have to deal with them, one way or another, and I understand why this administration and previous administrations had such antipathy towards Hamas because of their dedication to violence and the things that they not only espouse but practice, so . . . but it’s a new reality in the Middle East. I think the lesson is people want security and a decent life and decent future, that they want democracy. Fatah was not giving them that.”‘
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/15/AR2008051503306.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR
McCain has plenty of these skeletons to roll out
Eight more Edwards delegates for Obi
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/15/edwards-delegates-in-south-carolina-move-to-obama/
Gipps @ 835.
Re your conversion to Obama supporter despite having doubts about his gravitas.
I agree that he lacks somewhat a ‘heaviness of presence’. Watching the Edwards endorsement I kept wishing he’d sit leaning less forward on his stool. Really he shouldn’t have been on a stool at all.
But I think gravitas is over-rated. Look at Gough. Against the laws of physics he ended up disappearing up his own gravitas.
I do think however the Repubs will target Obama on this. This from the party that claimed Cheney added gravitas to the presidential ticket…
RB @ 860.
Please don’t defame brussel sprouts by association. One of the most complexly flavourful vegetables and so elegant looking. The trick is not to overcook them. (Brocolli, another brassica which the former Bush defamed, also a lovely vegetable.)
He’s baaaaack! This might create some interesting foreign affairs commentary. At least it will remind everyone that Bush couldn’t catch him.
An radical jihadist Web site has announced that a new message from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is forthcoming.
A banner announcing the message says he will address the 60th anniversary of Israel. His message is titled, “The reasons for the struggle in the remembrance of the 60th anniversary of the rising of the occupier nation of Israel.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2008/05/alert-a-new-mes.html
Myself @ 878. I sometimes have trouble with italian double consonants. ‘Broccoli’ is the correct spelling.
Supplement to #848– whenever I try to compile a darn exhaustive list, it’s always incomplete. Too many states in the USA.
Missouri should also be in there as a state which is definitely in play, albeit you wouldn’t put it in the ‘likely win’ camp. The GOP margin of victory in 2004 was hardly crushing.
Not that (despite winning the Missouri primary by a bee’s proverbial) Obama has an advantage over what the HRC position would have been there. Polling suggests he may have a slight disadvantage.
diogenes
Isnt Osama staying incognito at a certain ranch in Texas,
to be wheeled out when bushy needs a “scare”
879 Dio
It’s pretty hard to catch a dead man….not that The Imbecile can proffer the real excuse though.
16th May , the day a swarm of butterflys descended on William’s site ,
the one wing clapping ones , the pansy variety , the pixys , all flapping to be heard above the love in of new found interested in EV States to win
After 3 months of FINNS daily qoting E/V electabilty maps showing Hillary easily more electable than Obama & GG/Ron showing supporting swing state Polling , and EVERY day the the butterflys couldn’t chirp a single EV sound.
The audacity of hope ? , for three months more like the audacity of ignoring E/V reality and now the pixys want to play kids board games trying to find th non existent E/V’s to make 270.
Of course , IF you E/V dazed butterflys want to quote National Polls , then you have to wear ALL National Polls ! The latest , with a reasonable 3.1% MOE (MOE butterflys ? , MOE , that’s Xmas butterfly feed for you ). This latest Poll shows 31% Hillary supporters will vote McCain. Given that’s 1 vote off Obama and 1 added to McCain that’s the equivalent of 62% of Hillary’s 17 million supporters 10.5 million
Now butterflys , unlike your E/V hope figures on a draught board , these stats are mathematically accurate. The question is a/ how many of them are p….off US wide by the MI/FL (in THEIR opinion) Obama vote rort and b/ how many millions working class US voters will vote for an elitist guy who says they are ‘bitter’.
Plus the ‘fair go’/fear of the 90%+ anti white Primarys)
Obamabotic butterfly mayhem , plucking mystical E/V ‘s from anywhere
Ron,
You continue to shoot yourself in the foot. That wasn’t a national poll, but a West Virginia exit poll, and almost everyone here has said that Obama will not win WV in November.
883 HarryH
They haven’t caught Ayman al-Zawahiri yet either. Those two never leave each other’s side. Until Zawahiri is caught without Osama being with him, I’m sticking with the “he’s alive” policy.
It might be like the story about Bertrand Russell, the devout atheist. He was asked what he would say if he ended up in front of God after he died. His answer was ‘I should reproach him for not giving us enough evidence.’
From SimonH @ 881, let’s try to compile a list of states and their likely political preference in November (and whether they are subject to the Obama effect):
Definite Democratic wins (regardless of nominee):
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Maine
Vermont
Conneticut
New York
New Jersey
Maryland
Delaware
DC
Illinois
California
Hawaii
Definite Republican wins (regardless of Dem nominee):
Georgia (McCain up 14 v Obama, prob more v Clinton)
Alabama
Mississippi
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
South Dakota
Idaho
Utah
Montana
Arizona
Alaska
Wyoming
Leans Democratic (regardless of nominee):
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Minnesota
Oregon
Washington
Leans Republican:
Texas
North Dakota
North Carolina
South Carolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Indiana (possibly)
Toss-up States where Clinton has relative advantage over Obama:
Kentucky
West Virginia
Missouri
Ohio
Florida
New Hampshire
Arkansas
Toss-up States where Obama has relative advantage over Clinton:
Wisconsin
Colorado
Virginia
Iowa
Nevada
And the state where everybody (Obama, Clinton and McCain) are roughly tied:
New Mexico
I hope I didn’t forget any states in this list (but it’s likely that I did…)
Obama gets the Edwards delegates and the endorsement of the steelworkers union(who previously supported Edwards)
John Edwards in return gets either Vice President or Attorney General(said to be his preference), and Obama taking on his anti-poverty crusade!
A good deal for both!
Definite Democrat Wins:
Illinois
New York
California
New Hampshire
Delaware
Conneticut
Rhode Island
Massachussets
Vermont
Wisconsin
Minnesotta
Michigan
Philadelphia
Hawaii
District Of Columbia
Washington State
Oregon
Possible Democrat Wins:
Ohio
Virginia
New Mexico
South Carolina
Arkansas
Iowa
North Carolina
Missouri
Republican Definite Wins:
Arizona
Alaska
Alabama
Montana
Kansas
South Dakota
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Texas
Republican Possible Wins:
Florida
West Virginia
Kentucky
Tennesee
I probably left out a few
Progressive @ 888,
Edwards as VP would be a disaster – he was fairly limp and ineffectual during the 2004 campaign (he was supposed to bring in Southern voters – in the end the Democrats won none and lost the NC senate seat that Edwards had resigned from).
He could be a decent choice as AG – although the Republicans would kick up a stint given his past career as a class action trial lawyer.
There are several better choices as Obama’s VP – Gen. Wesley Clark, Gov Tim Kaine (Virginia), Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (Kansas), Gov. Ed Rendell (Pennsylvania) and Gov. Ted Strickland (Ohio) are examples that spring to mind.
Nevada: likely Republican
Colorado: genuine tossup this year
SL @ 887.
You list Alaska as a definite win for the Repubs. However Kos argues today at his site that Alaska will be competitive. Basically he’s saying that McCain is deeply unpopular there due partly to his voting against drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. He came in fourth, behind Ron Paul in the primary. There’s a strong libertarian candidate that could take a lot of votes away from the Repubs in a state partial to third parties.
Swing Lowe: Edwards has apparently said he doesn’t want to run for VP again.
I’d guess he gets some sort of high profile cabinet appointment, either Attorney General or Secretary Of Labor.
However, I wouldn’t devalue the value of the endorsement, it was important!
Progressive @ 889,
Don’t want to be pedantic, but Philadelphia is not a state…
I also disagree with you putting New Hampshire as a def. Democratic win – after all, McCain has been leading there in virtually every poll conducted there against either opponent.
885
Al #885
Ron
“You continue to shoot yourself in the foot. That wasn’t a national poll, but a West Virginia exit poll”
Ron: NO , it was a NATIONAL Poll.
The NW exit Poll was a simple Primary exit poll
Al , if you were an Obamabot rather than a ObamaRealist , I’d say more to you
The National Poll figure was 31% switch to McCain. Now Obama supporters only want to quote ONE figure (the National RCP figure) , why ? Because every other National or by State statistic shows Obama a loser vs Hillary. Some of you guys (the Obamabot wing) perform intellectual gutting of POTUS assessment
869
Pancho
I’d love to see Turd Blossom in an orange jump suit!
Callum at 878, I am an Obama convert, having been impressed by his speeches initially, and after initially falling for the Hillary spin about lack of substance, actually read through his myriad of policies. Whilst I think that he set himself up a bit by trying to portray himself as above politics, I think he is the real deal and offers more opportunity for change than Hillary
Let’s remember, while we’re doodling about with numbers (and Ron, you’re just doodling, please, only on the paper, not on the walls, eh?) that the RCP polls show a record percentage of Democrats registered to vote and plummeting support for the Republicans.
In other words, past performance is not going to be a good indicator for this November, and as yet, we haven’t seen a Democratic nominee actually backed by his party and attacking McCain frontally.
I’d leave the mouldy old polls aside until next month when the dust settles and things look a bit clearer.
OK, back to your doodling, and Ron, don’t forget to wash your hands and face afterwards please.
Andrew @ 897.
I’m a little confused. I was referencing the post above yours by Gippslander @ 835 where he raised the issue of Obama’s gravitas (or possible lack thereof).
yeah, I know, I was just adding my two cents
For the numerate and literate doodlers, here’s a good piece on the Democratic party’s numbers in Nov:
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/
(it’s ok, Ron, you can colour in the pictures)
Sweetiegate – Whil