Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Yes, (West) Virginia …
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#148 – CFE -[Add to that the number of Clinton supporters who say they won’t vote for Obama] – the exit poll in WV – 36% will not vote for Obama and 25% will stay home. – total 61%. Take me home, mountain mama…………..
148 Chris from Edgecliff Just look what happened in the midterm 2006 elections. This will be bigger than that.
The Democrats won seats they weren’t supposed to win.
SimonH @ 147.
Thanks for the link. Very nicely written article.
Just a note on Chris from Edgecliff’s point @ 148.
The last time Republicans nominated a Senator from Arizona to be their Presidential nominee, they lost in the 1964 Democratic landslide.
Not that I’m saying that a similar result is going to happen this time, but it goes to show that historical precendent(s) can be used to prove/disprove any argument…
Chris from Edgecliff,
I don’t think it was the Newt-slide that lost MS-01 in 1994 so much as the retirement of the incumbent who would have enjoyed significant local personal support a after serving for 53 years regardless of political party (particularly as he was elected before the civil rights era and the GOP’s taking of the South from the Dems). When he retired, the Republicans won the District 63-37 in 1994, and since then won every election by 30-50 points.
They even out a Liberal in charge of the senate. The 3 by elections were run using all the scare tactics you mentioned. The Repugs spent their hard earned cash (and short supply) running their scare campaigns to no effect.
Chris from Edgecliff If you would like some running commentary on the election the votemaster predicted George Bush’s 2 victories with great accuracy.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
157 Chris B That should read even put a Liberal in charge.
Swing Lowe @ 155, there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences!
Incidentally, the last time a Democrat from Illinois was on the ballot in a presidential election it was an unmitigated disaster (on both occasions)
WV. Count 95%. Hillary winning 67% of the vote.
West Virginia , state whose history and statistics show the Team Obama “spin machine has been both misleading & deceptive , and liberal left media slant a lie.
Historically , pro Lincoln’s anti slavery , and seceded from the Confederate pro slavery Virginia based on cultural , philosophical , ethnic , religious, industry & geographic grounds despite the drivel from one selective historian here.WV’s history is with the North not the South , Historically the State is not a ‘red’ State spin lie number 1/ exposed
Employment , traditionally blue collar. That’s traditional ALP Labor. Which Obambot (not ObamaBacker) has the convictions courage to call traditional Labor supporters racists & bigots. It’s a dare Obamabots. This ALP type State of course will vote for an ALP type candidate like Hillary & has by 67% .Spin lie number 2/ exposed
Educationally , its people have a decent and strong rate of high school graduates relative to the US. They are therefore intelligent people as a fact , not dumb as implied by Obamabots. The fact many don’t relatively take Degrees is related to a poorer background needing immediate income & the job availability tertiary requirement , and not their clearly demonstated decent intelligence. Spin lie 3/ exposed
Racism , if blogers understood the history outlined & their pro North views
the racism if any is in the US is in States to its South. It’s the colour of Obama’s policys (elitist liberal fluff) that offend WV (& traditional ALP type voters) , not the colour of his skin. Conversely , ex confederate North Carolina who the Obambots lauded about Obama’s victory a week ago had a 90%+ black vote for Obama against a white fellow Democrat. So was there racism demonstated in North Carolina by blacks against the white Hillary ? The Obamabots were content with such potential reverse racism without comment. WV historically North & culturally tolerant, ALP type traditional don’t like Obama’’s politics color , which runs beneath the skin. Spin lie no 4/ exposed.
Culturally Repug type backward. This is Democrat territory mostly , 8 out of last 12 elections voted Democrat which further exposes this Repug cultural label. Spin lie no 5/ exposed
Race demographics, there are statistically miniscule Asian & Hispanic & black voters in WV.Hillary was heavily disadvantaged in vote winning by the absence of the first two race groups , so the low black vote is a red herring. Spin lie no
6/ exposed
POTUS , the WV demographics & polling vs McCain make WV a ‘red’ State win
for Hillary for the above reasons (the same polls show Obama gets thrashed). A
different mix of demographics show Hillary will also win OH , PA & FL over McCain & decisively win POTUS for the Democrats (a reasonably sure thing). Whereas Obama’s case rests on winning an odd grouping of ‘red’ States , mostly historically strongly ‘red’ and mostly McCain on polls now leads Obama (& before McCain publicly exposes his liberal’ credentials to them) Obama is the ‘claytons electability hope’) Obama the “best” candidate ? , after WV now , plus OH ,, PA , FL etc , Lie no 7/ exposed.
The Obamabots (not the ObamaBackers) intellectual reaction ? probably a Sir Joh’ answer : “it’ll be alright”….the dreamy undefined ‘change to’ message answer. For mine I’m still strongly with Hillary for Nominee, I’ve got stats & demographic reasons plus the above reasons (plus policys like Hillary’s universal Healthcare plan vs Obama’s “Howardism free choice” right wing subsidy based with Insurance premiums market set policy). Traditional Labor type voters in the US agree with me.
Ron, so the SDs should flock to Hillary now. You cant be that stupid- she cant win, she needs almost 70% of remaining delegates, and all the SD traffic is going the other way. 90% of Hillary voters in WV believe she’s going to win. Are you from WV by any chance.
I have concluded that you post simply to annoy people. You cant be that stupid
I ask this question: which states does Obama have a chance of winning such that he will – as some people have claimed – rewrite political reality in the US?
All the polling that I have seen thus far suggests that the election for Obama depends on Florida and/or Ohio. Nothing new there.
So: list the states, someone.
And I will point out for the record that I very much hope that he does win states that rewrite political reality in the US. Although I am a Clinton supporter, I am primarily a Democrat supporter.
Completely agree with Swing Lowe’s conclusion at #149. If McCain can take Pennsylvania off the Dems and hold Ohio (I’m regarding him holding Florida as a given), then he’s home almost regardless of the rest of the country.
But would you bet that way? Really, if Obama isn’t confident he can hold PA, he might as well pack up and go home. Last poll had him 7 points up, RCP rolling poll average 5 points up. Of course polls this far out have to be used with enormous caution, but as a ‘held’ Democrat state it looks like theirs to lose.
Presuming that Obama is less popular in PA than Kerry (and I wouldn’t conclude that without evidence), does the difference outweigh the degree to which the Repub brand is more on the nose than it was in 2004?
and David Gould ,
which points in my 3161 did you agree with and which points did you disagree with ?
#163 DG – you’ll be disappointed. the Obamabots here have the habit of running away from answering real and hard question, bit like their candidate really.
164 SimonH You only have to look at what happened in 2006. Since then the Republicans are even more on the nose.
The crazy thing Andrew, is that since she needs at least 71% of the remaining delegates, today’s win may not even achieve that target. That’s the sort of ludicrous mathematical scenario she requires to achieve a victory.
I have every belief that Ron will still be here touting Hillary’s chances and demanding her nomination well after the convention.
Ohio swung sharp to the left because of corruption. This should be a safe state for the Dems.
Chris from Edgecliff @ 160,
Touche.
David Gould @ 163,
Whilst I am also a Clinton supporter, the states that people assert that Obama can win that would constitute “rewriting political reality in the US” include:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
However, I still doubt whether Obama will win states like North Dakota or the Carolinas. I see Virginia, Indiana and Colorado as real shots for the Democrats this time (although Clinton would also have been competitive in Virginia and Indiana), but McCain should still win the other 3 fairly comfortably.
However, it is arguable whether this election will present such a change in political reality. After all, Bill Clinton won the following red/purple states in either 1992 or 1996:
Arkansas (obviously)
Tennessee (twice)
Kentucky (twice)
Louisiana (twice)
Georgia
Colorado
Montana
Nevada (twice)
Missouri (twice)
He also won all of the other key swing states (OH, PA, MI, WI, IA, WA) twice as well as Florida once.
So a Democrat doing well in these states (particularly the Southern ones) should not be that surprising to us…
Ron, how did you like the increase in the threshold for the medicare surcharge in last night’s budget? That was surely a great improvement to the Labor/Clinton health policy of univesal coverage.
David Gould, broken record time. State breakdowns v McCain are entertainment value only until it’s a two horse race. Polling has been so out of shape in the primaries it is irrelevant. Follow the Gallup daily tracking poll, it’s the only one whidh is proving to be of some use regarding the ebb and flow of voter sentiment.
Ron,
I agree that Clinton is more electable than Obama. I disagree with any assessment that puts WV as a key state, but I am unsure that that is what you were doing. I do not think that it is demographically key, either, as not many states have similar demographics.
However, I certainly agree – as would anyone who looked at the polling – that Obama is in trouble with blue collar workers. As the Howard years showed in Australia, they are the key demographic. They will generally vote on economics, but can certainly be swayed to some (small) extent by conservative values issues.
The question is: will blue collar workers vote for McCain, stay away or vote for Obama? My fear is that they will not tend to the ‘vote for Obama’ option.
The next question is: will his losses there be offset anywhere else that is useful to him? It is no good him picking up the intelligentsia in New York and California.
The black vote might help him. But the anti-black vote is also a problem in the states where black voters have significant numbers.
So: I guess I agree with you, Ron, but not on everything. Clear? Mud.
I would also point out that I have had interesting and informative conversations with people who might be called ‘Obamabots’. I may be a Clintoid, but I am sure we can all get along … get along … get along … give me superdelegates … Florida … Michigan … Florida … Michigan …
re:
Virginia
Indiana
Colorado
North Dakota (why bother?)
North Carolina
South Carolina
On what basis are these claims made? Is there polling I can look at?
And for those who claim the polling is hopeless: if the polling is hopeless, then where are you getting your information from that Obama is competitive in those states?
By running away from competing in WV, he has only reinforced the perception of being arrogant and looking down at demographic like WV and his Bittergate. Doo run run, doo run run, in West Virginia……… yes, we notice the flag pin. Worry? who’s worry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/14/opinion/14dowd-1.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Ron,
That is a very naive description of the split that produced the West Virginian secession from Virginia in 1861. The reality is that a complex series of events produced the current divide, and slavery was only one of those issues.
173 David Gould You have only to look at what has happened in the 3 recent by elections. 2 R+7 and 1 R+10 to see what is happening regarding the accuracy of the polls.
One had a 25% swing. If only Gippsland would get that sort of swing.
DG @ 173,
Have a look at:
http://www.electoral-vote.com
They have polls matching Obama and Clinton v McCain in all states. In the states I listed above, Obama is less than 5% behind McCain (with the exception of ND, where he is 6% behind).
The by-election results are certainly very exciting.
However, there should be some caution attached here: all three by-elections had extremely conservative Democrats standing in them. As such, they attracted enough of the conservative vote to give them the win. Obama does not have conservative credentials. As such, predicting his likely performance in those areas based on their performance is suspect at best.
David @ 163: See my post and linked article. All listed there. Few of them ‘rewrite political reality’ in the sense that they require 20%+ swings or have never been won by the Dems before.
Obama’s election chances don’t rest on winning Florida (and barring a miracle, he won’t). McCain’s election chances rest on:
a) holding on to all of 2004 including holding Ohio; or
b) cancelling out losses with a big win, preferably Pennsylvania or Michigan (or, more remotely but conclusively, California).
Obama’s election strategy is far less ‘Ohio or bust!’ than HRC’s would have been. Albeit HRC would have had the backup plan of winning Florida.
PS Howler in my #147 post by including Tennessee as a state McCain would be grimly defending from O. Whoops. To even it up, I should have included Nevada as a state where McCain will at least face a significant challenge, where he probably wouldn’t have vs HRC.
West Virginia is South of the Mason-Dixon line, and was in the Confederacy. Although the North of West Virginia is being swamped by the Yankies moving south.
Therefore there is a gradual shift to the left.
I do not really see a three per cent gap as that good a result for Obama. Colorado is nice, but that is given to him, and he is still behind on delegates. He needs to win states that are in the red column; Clinton needs to hold states that are in the blue column.
I have looked at http://www.electoral-vote.com a lot. It is my favourite site for polling data.
For general information for those that do not know the Mason-Dixon line is an imaginary line that runs between Ohio and Maryland in the north and Virginia and West Virginia in the south. The Yankees were/are in the North and the Confederates were/are in the south.
Chris B, West Virginia was not a member of the Confederate States of America. They almost immediately seceded and joined the Union within six months of Virginia leaving the Union.
180 SimonH They actually lost that 2004 lead in the mid term 2006 elections.
Re the argument that the three local House candidates who won the recent elections are conservative Dems – this is true. However, the whole Republican operation tried to vigorously paint them as liberals and attach them to both Obama and Pelosi. Aggressive adverising campaigns featuring Wright, bitter annd guns were trotted out in each instance. And in each instance the Democratic candidate won the safest of Republican seats which they had not held for decades. It’s on folks.
Based on looking back at the polling history for South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia, South Carolina looks to be the only realistic hope for Obama.
Indiana is also weird. Looking at the polling history, there is one outlier poll that tips it to Obama in a landslide. The rest have McCain storming in. I can see why they have it as a dead heat based on those results, but the polling is not conclusive that it is a possibility for Obama. It is much more likely that the poll giving it to him was a weirdie.
And North Dakota? I do not think so. Six per cent is a huge margin.
So, on my analysis South Carolina is the only shot for Obama, if we put Colorado in the bag, so to speak.
He still needs Florida or Ohio to win.
I hope it’s on. I just don’t think that it is (not in terms of the presidential election, anyhow).
Thing is, if the Dems win against this sort of publicity in the south, everything is on the table. The Republicans will be stretched thin, and McCain will have to be running as Jekyll and Hyde to try to trick both the right and centre all over the country. It’s all a bridge too far. Get a couple of bob on NC now.
SL and DG
The 3 cornered polls at the moment are between
McCain v Obama
and
McCain v Clinton.
They are loaded polls. Even given this fact, both are beating McCain.
The November election is between
Democrat v Republican.
80% unhappy with direction of country
70% unhappy with the War
Bush fave rating 28%
Economy tanking
War
Katrina
8 years of this vile Republican mob.
Core support split is now 51% Dem to 38% Repub. Compared to 43% each in 2004.
Democrats are money flushed
Repubs are money poor
Record Democrat turnouts.
Record new Dem registrations
Record Independant support
Do you really think McCain is this good? Do you really think this 72yo, who looks,talks and acts every one of those 72 years, can turn all that around?
The same McCain who a large part of even that shrinking base despises?
Debate is fun, but reality is reality.
A wave is coming, and it will take the Repubs out with them.
185 Al Thank you. You are correct, but a large number of West Virginian’s enrolled in the Confederate Army as Virginians. As well as some fought for the North
191 HarryH Thank you for backing up what I have been saying.
Both are beating McCain nationally, that is true. However, the national race is not the thing that decides the presidential election. It is the races in each state. We already have columns of states that are definitely going to be Democrat and definitely going to be Republican, even with all those other things going on. The question is not ‘How good is McCain?’. The question is: why, if things are so bad, is McCain so competitive – competitive to the point that he is beating Obama in the delegate count and only one state behind Clinton in that regard?
My suspicion is because Democrat supporters are building a narrative in their heads that is not in the heads of the average punter out there. I remember similar claims before the 2004 election. How could anyone vote for Bush again? Well, they did, didn’t they? I also remember the 2007 Australian election. All the talk was of seats falling because of a backlash of disattisfaction with the Liberal social agenda. That did not happen. 2PP, 48 per cent of people still voted against Labor. Things are never as we on the Left wish them to be.
Further, on what basis do you make that claim that the national polling is accurate (it, too, is based on the same three-cornered questions) and that the state polling is not?
I suppose we wouldn’t want facts to get in the way of a good debate would we?
194 David Gould Again, look at the evidence. Mid term polls 2006. 3 by elections where the Republicans were routed.
These are not claims. And what happened in 2004 had no parrallel to this.
The Republicans one the mid term 2002 elections and took control of the senate.
Wheras the oposite happened in 2006 mid terms.
David, differences in 08 compared to 04 include:
lie of the land – as the 3 House seats indicate, polls and issues mentioned above, the huge number of registered Dems, the machine that Obama has built (which as of yesterday, began a 50 – not 57 – state voter enrolment drive),
the fact that the old man is not the incumbent, Obama’s rhetoric – this one is huge, it is what propelled Reagan to landslides, new media, the internet and Obama’s savvy on this front…
I could probably keep rattling, but I’m seeing 04 and 08 as worlds apart.
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