Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Yes, (West) Virginia …
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A good policeman would not ignore the evidence, although some people say they theory of evolution is only a theory.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election,_1994
A massive swing to the Republicans.
Two years later:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1996
An electoral college landslide to Bill Clinton.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections%2C_1996
Republicans gained a net of two seats.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_1996
Democrats gained a net of eight seats, but lost the popular vote by quite a margin.
My point is that mid-term elections do not tell us much about presidential elections, and that congressional elections do not tell us much about congressional elections. The races are different, and the public views them as such.
Whoops the Theory of Evolution.
David
In 2004 the people still thought they could win the War
In 2004 the economy was flying
In 2004 there was no Katrina
In 2004 Repugs were only half as on the nose as they are now
In 2004 Repugs had an energised base led by Bush loving evangelicals
etc
etc
This is 2008
For those who are optimistic, I am glad for you. And I hope very much that you are correct.
I do not share that optimism, but I am still hopeful of a Democratic victory come the fall.
ChrisB,
That’s exactly why I called Ron’s attempt to paint West Virginia as a typical Union state naive. I’ve spent a fair bit of time researching the US Civil War, all stemming from a trip to Gettysburg. After being there, you really can’t help but become somewhat interested.
2008 is different to 2004, yes. But the similarity is that people on the Left were predicting a crushing defeat for Bush. After all, look at all the bad stuff he’d done.
This sounds very similar to what is happening here.
206 Al Thanks Al. It took me quite a lot of research to understand the polical connections with the civil war.
David Gould, are you going to be our LTEP for 2008?
As well as the research on McCarthysm and why the Democrats were involved in McCarthysm, and now they have regrets about that part of their history.
209 TurningWorm We have lost Glen so we need someone else.
My 207 post is a little bad, I think. What I am trying to say is that there is certainly reason to believe that people would not vote for the Republicans this time around – all the things cited. However, the polling is not showing that voters share this perception. It is all very well to say, ‘Well, the polling must be wrong.’ But that simply puts the question up in the air as to what is happening.
You can either go with the logical position – that no-one in their right mind would vote for the Republicans in this environment – or you can go with the polls. Given how often predictions based on the logical position have been wrong, I am leaning towards simply accepting the polls at face value. I understand why others might not do that. But I think that their claims lack evidentiary support if they do so.
212 David Gould. 25% swing to Democrats in one by election certainly shows some inconsistency, and how about the other 2 by elections?
I am certainly happy to beg the Republicans to lose the election.
What more evidence do you need?
I have addressed the by-election issue, I think. It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
Chris,
Opinion poll data for the presidential clash between Obama and McCain.
Well, keep feeding us your information and we’ll try to provide a counter argument.
Yes, but the by elections were not opinion polls. They are fact.
They are indeed fact. However, they are not particularly pertinent – imo – to a presidential clash. Extremely conservative Democrats were being examined by the electorate in those instances. Obama is not an extremely conservative Democrat. When the people in these conservative areas look at the ballot, they will see the name ‘Obama’ written there.
And I will point out that opinion polls had been predicting these Democratic by-election victories – opinion polls which are most certainly not predicting an Obama victory in these areas come November. The opinion polls got it right for the by-elections. That is evidence that they might very well have it right for November.
David
Has it occured to you that after 8 years of G.W.Bush and his Republican Party that the populace might be tending slightly away from Republican Conservatism?
Their base has shrunk in 4 years from a split of 43% each to 51% Dem to 38% Repub.
As the mood and electorate swung to them in 1994 it has now swung firmly away from them.
Travis Childers is what you’d call a conservative Democrat: anti abortion, pro life, evangelical christian, gun owner, in other words the only sort of person the Democrats could get elected in a conservative area of Mississippi!
I’ll agree with David Gould that we shouldn’t get too carried away with predictions of Republican annihilation in November, but assuming it’s a much higher voter turnout than in 2004, you’d give Obama/Democrats the edge.
The mood certainly swung to them in 1994. They still lost the 1996 presidential election.
It has certainly occurred to me that that might be happening. However, the state-by-state polling does not reflect that. Why?
The Republican Party certainly campaigned against him using the terms Liberal. In fact they even threw the kitchen sink at him.
David
Keating hung on for one more election here after the mood changed too.
Why does the state by state polling not reflect the swing? Because their is no Democrat candidate yet. There is no united Democrat Party yet. The polling is McCain v a split ticket.
Wait and see the polls in July/August David.
And as I said:
It might not be possible to paint a conservative Democrat with a liberal Obama brush, but it is going to be extremely difficult to even get the tiniest splash of converative paint on Obama.
These districts are not going to perceive Obama as one of them in any shape or form. These districts will vote Republican in the November presidential race.
The Democrats have NEVER had so much money. The Republicans have NEVER been so broke. Further to that, companies connected to Republican Party are switching sides according to the Votemaster.
I am happy to wait to see those polls. However, I would suggest that all those suggesting an inevitable win for the Democrats wait for those polls, too.
Money is good.
226 HarryH So did John Howard.
All these examples of sides hanging on after the mood has changed does not fill me with confidence, by the way.
To put the amount of money the Democrats have earnt and spent in perspective it is at least 100 times more then George Bush, since last year. Including Move on org.
http://www.moveon.org
David Gould , Swing Lowe & Chris from edgecliff
First , David Gould #172. Thanks for the courtesy of replying its psephological depth , few Hillary ones have. ‘Not on everything clear as mud’, many of my posts have imbeded (as are my Amigo friend FINN’S) return fire by 2 of us daily vs 30 odd Obama supporters a lot of whom use belittling & sniper insulting blogs. We two started civilly.
Davidd , Swing and Chris
The reality of hillary electability vs Obama’s , two of you captured which I’ve tried in vain to suggest:
“there is a difference between historical precedents and historical coincidences” and National comparative Polling is irrelevant.
Both the “historical precedents” inclusive of demographics & other psephological factors and Polls that should be read by State (with the aforementioned factors) are a sound basis for assessment. WV is winnable for hillary , she leads in against McCain & it votes Dems 8 of last12. Overwhelming OH ,PA FL where Hillary does lead McCaina they say Hillary is by far more electable and show serious electoral problems for Obama. They also suggest most of the Obama ‘hope to’ States poor odds for the same above psephological reasons & with McCain on Polls ahead in most.
The ‘bitter’ Ohio is unlikely (McCain is ideal Repug to win this state) and the J..ew/Hispanic FL impossible. NC & SC and other Southern red States , the Dems the worst 3 combinations ‘liberal’ , black & non sothen (inlike Bill & Carter)
The Repugs with a ‘moderate’ in some areas McCain have got a good electable candidate
SuperDelegate Count. All of Obama’s supers under Dems rules , can switch to Hillary anytime they like , and should
David, your general caution/pessimism is warranted given the dismal showing of non-Bill Clinton Dem candidates in Presidential elections for the last 40 years.
However, your assertion at #188 (Obama must win Florida or Ohio to win) is just flat-out wrong, as the New Republic article referenced at #147 indicates.
One of many non-far-fetched scenarios is that he picks up Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico. That’ll do him if all other states remain as per 2004. On the electoral-vote.com site, 8 points up Iowa, 3 points up Colorado, and 1 point down in NM, so far as anyone places store in non-averaged current polls. Vice President Bill Richardson has a fine ring to it, I tells ya…
And that’s disregarding any controversial potential pickup in the near southeast (NC, SC, VA). The whole point of the (anticipated) Obama strategy is to keep McCain fighting on as many disparate fronts as possible, so he can’t easily defend the 2004 line in the sand, and he can’t dump many tens of millions into Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin and maybe PA without leaving himself dangerously underdressed elsewhere. A guy who is currently only drawing in the polls vs Obama in Indiana, which should be one of the first states with sizeable population (after TX and his home state) that he can bank on, has serious troubles if not very very well resourced.
David
The mood change in the U.S. happened back in 2005.
The realisation that Bush’s War was a complete lie and that America was losing it.
The Katrina debacle.
Corruption
Incompetence
Terry Schiavo
and the list goes on.
The mood change is well and truly cemented now. There will be no “beating the trend” for the Repubs in Nov.
They are on the nose royally…as Newt Gingrich said last week…no matter what we say or do ,they are just gonna say to us “Not You”.
Finns at 174, youre lucky Ron’s here to make you look more reasonable. Obama didnt campaign in WV because there didnt appear to be any point, so to take those exit polls as any indication when he didnt campaign there it as usual. clutching at straws
The bottom line is this- HILLARY CANT WIN. All your arguments about electability, demographics etc have been presented to voters SINCE DAY ONE. And they have chosen Obama.
The only argument worth hearing at this point from Hillary supporters is: how is Hillary going to win the 70% of delegates she needs?? You can bang on about other issues as much as you like, wont change the math
David in the 2006 mid terms, the Democrats won seats the Democrat National committee did not think they would win, and did not put any money into. Moveon.org on the other hand did think that they had a chance and put money into those seats. Now the Democrats have control of the Senate thanks to Moveon.org
http://www.moveon.org
Their site has a lot of good information on it.
236 HarryH You left out (in fact so did I), the discraceful treatment of wounded soldiers returning from Iraq. That is putting the soldiers in rat/cockroach infected rooms.
Also if you comine the dead and wounded numbers from Vietnam and Iraq. The combined total puts Iraq in front. Even though Vietnam lasted much longer.
Spell check. combine.
Not to mention the huge numbers of murders/suicides amoungst the returning soldiers.
re Indiana, Obama is only tied there because of one bizarre poll. The rest all of McCain miles in front there. We will need to wait for more polling to see the true situation.
Re Iowa, Colorado and New Mexico, if it is accepted that Obama is close in those states, it also has to be accepted that McCain is doing better than Bush did in 2004 in other states. Thus, on the polling, Obama has to pick up Ohio or Florida – I repeat: on the polling. That is the information we have; that is the information I am going on.
I believe that Obama’s strategy is in general a good one. However, I hope that he does not waste money in states that cannot realistically be won and leave Ohio and Florida to McCain.
Most of the soldiers – and their families – will vote for McCain. So I would not count that issue as being too useful for the Democrats.
As to Moveon.org, they are a great organisation. I will certainly have to keep an eye on what they are saying about the presidential race.
David Gould – those same soldiers on the extended tours that they didn’t sign up for? I’m sure the margin the Reps win soldiers by will be drastically cut from what it has been in the past.
‘Drastically cut’? I do not think so – not with McCain as the Republican candidate.
One thing today’s result confirms is that the Obama campaign has stalled. Since Texas it has been one mediocre performance after another. The 90/10 advantage Obama has with the black vote during this campaign is his core demographic.
I actually agree with Martin Luther King when he said in his famous I have Dream speech that, “I look forward to the day when a man is judged by the content of his character rather than the colour of his skin”. Obviously, the black Democratic vote don’t agree. They have just voted for the black man.
For a guy with so much popular support, he does not seem to be cutting through to middle America.
Maybe the SDs will make a very tough decision.
100 years McCain? I’m willing to bet on it.
162
Andrew
Please, don’t put money on it! LOL
As the opinion polls up to September last year showed the black vote 70/30 in favour of Hillary, I’d say it’s not a blind racism driving this block. Might have more to do with the character Obama has shown on one hand, and the disdain shown to them by the Clintons, particularly Bill, on the other.
If there is a race candidate at the moment, I’d suggest it is the one harping on about ‘workin, hard-working Americans, white Americans’, and the white vote at every stop.
243 David Gould The anti war vote is huge, haven’t you seen the polls. It’s running at over 70%. Further to that if you look at all the polls on the major issues, the Democrats have the major issues sewn up. Each major issue that I have seen the Democrats are on about 70% I would expect the general polls to line up with the major issue polls.
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