Democratic voters in West Virginia will today elect 28 delegates by some method or other. I can’t be bothered looking into it because the New York Post reports that Hillary Clinton is “toast”, and papa says, “if you see it in the Post, it’s so”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Yes, (West) Virginia …
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1,725 Comments
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To be clear, are you saying that you expect the Democrats to get 70 per cent of the vote?
Can you give me a link to these major issues polls giving the Democrats that kind of lead?
The anti-war vote may be huge. That does not mean that the people who oppose the war are going to all vote for the Democrats. The anti-war vote in Australia was huge. 48 per cent of people still voted for the Liberal Party. Why? It was not an election issue. The Iraq war will not be a major election issue, no matter how the left like to dream it will be. People simply do not base their vote on that sort of thing.
“New Style Politics” Question Number 2 to the Obamaphiles:
Is President Obama going to say “SORRY” to the native Amercian Indians for the past genocides; to the enslavement of the Blacks; for the “White American” policy legislations (still on the book) on the Chinese during 1850-1910 and for the internment of the japanese during the second War World?
Pres Obama: “We reflect on their past mistreatment. We reflect in particular on the mistreatment of those who were the lost generations – this blemished chapter in our nation’s history. The time has now come for the nation to turn a new page in America’s history by righting the wrongs of the past and so moving forward with confidence to the future. We apologise for the laws and policies of successive congresses and governments that have inflicted profound grief, suffering and loss on these our fellow Americans….. And for the indignity and degradation thus inflicted on a proud people and a proud culture, we say sorry…… There comes a time in the history of nations when their peoples must become fully reconciled to their past if they are to go forward with confidence to embrace their future”
- What about it Mr. Obama, a profile of courage or just another politician.
Q1 was: Is Pres. Obama going to ratify kyoto? The answer was NO.
So Old Style Politics 1 – New style Politics 0
Finns, what are you on man? The extensive answer given to your question 1 was yes.
I’ll take a bit of the nuance out of my response, and only post the relevant words now. Ready? Keep your eyes open:
Now, for those having trouble with comprehension, what did the UNFCCC produce? Correct! And how will one ‘work within it’? Correct again!!!
From http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Pancho,
I hope you arent heartbroken in November.
EStJ
#254 – Amigo, show me one statement from Obama that he said “I will ratify Kyoto” as Kevin Rudd did.
Finns, I know you aren’t that dumb.
David
Seeing that you are a great believer in current polls:
The Top 3 Issues deciding your vote is
Economy 40%
Iraq War 21%
Healthcare 8%
The first 2 (Economy and Iraq) tie in together. The American public now not only see that the War was a sham and is a disaster, they also see it as a major drag on a faltering economy.
Ed, nice to know you’re lookin out for me pal.
#259 Amigo, i know you are not that stupid to be fooled by “an Obama administration will work constructively within it”. Say it man, simple: “I will ratify Kyoto”.
Always Pancho, always
Without looking at the demographics, I would pretty much guess that close to all of the 21 per cent who said that the Iraq war was the top issue deciding their vote have never voted Republican in their lives. Healthcare likewise.
Do you have the demographic breakdown of Republican/Democrat voters for those?
In any case, that leaves the economy. Who is best placed there? Sure, the economy is in bad shape. But Bush is to blame for that. So, McCain gets to fight Obama on (almost) even terms – I give Obama a running 4 per cent start here.
Neither has any economic credentials, but guess what? The working class do not like Obama. And they are the ones to whom the economy matters most. It is a matter here of where Obama spends his money and how he pitches his message.
ESJ,
Good to see you have not been put off by the blustering blowback of the bragging Barak bludgers.
How do you see the campaign unfolding from here?
DG – re the economy – valid points BUT Hillary’s gas tax populism had a negative effect on her in IN and NC.
Good to see the Bludgertorium warming up with the click click clicking of the keys (rather than the flap flap flapping of the butterflies’ wings….nah, don’t ask!), and lots of sentences and even full stops!
It looks like the ‘electability’ red herring is being waved around again, but let’s get it nailed down: this is Hillary Clinton’s last fall back position. She’s gone from the inevitable annointed nominee to arguing that ‘he’ can’t be elected in November. But that’s not the point: he can be elected NOW!
She has failed to be.
Moving the goal posts as the winner gets closer to the finish line (to mix metaphors, or sports, or something) is nothing but a sign of complete desperation and is nothing short of an insult to the voters who actually, funnily enough, don’t want her to be the nominee.
Arguing it is simply playing her game; and it IS a game.
The real issue, is how to bring the diverse groups of Democrats together (NOT just the ones who voted in the primaries), the independents who are sick of ugly Bush Republicanism and his infantile war, the true Conservative Republicans (big C) who want their party taken out of the hands of these mad Neocons, and those who’ve never voted before in their lives.
Hillary cannot do it becasue she cannot win the nomination.
Obama can becasue he’s about to win it. He’ll then go on to do the above.
Watch.
David Gould at 264
I could understand a claim such as the ‘The working class prefer Clinton over Obama’ but to say that the ‘The working class do not like Obama’ is a bit of a stretch. Can you point to anything outside of a candidate selection race preference poll that supporting your assertion?
that is *
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107110/Obamas-Support-Similar-Kerrys-2004.aspx
This is very interesting. It confounds some of my underlying thinking, such as that Obama will do worse with blue collar workers, while supporting my general conclusion: that this will be a close election.
Yeah – noticed that too.
Now I wonder if we can fix the space before the comma fetish.
It was a stretch. Consider it amended as you suggested.
PB Profiles:
Catrina the Counting Courtesan knows how to track everything. Hobbies include watching the numbers rollover at the petrol bowser. Is almost orgasmic when they change prices electronically at her local servo.
Greeensborough Growler at 273
Umm, sorry GG, I don’t even have a license to drive let alone a car.
They spent, they came, they went:
Having lost a similar Congressional race this month in Louisiana, Republicans had worked desperately to win this contest, sending Vice President Dick Cheney to campaign for Mr. Davis, along with Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi and former Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas; President Bush and Senator John McCain recorded telephone messages that were sent to voters throughout the district.
Merle Black, a Southern politics expert at Emory University, called a Democratic victory potentially “a huge upset, and an indication of a terrible year ahead for the Republicans.” He added, “In theory, this should be an easy win for them.”
Mimicking a strategy that proved successful in 2006, Democrats ran staunch conservatives in both this and the Louisiana race, forcing their Republican opponents to attack national party figures as surrogates.
Mr. Davis had been hoping for a large turnout in his home of DeSoto County, where roughly 15 percent of the district’s voters live, and which is solidly Republican and mostly white. But a last-minute appearance for him by Mr. Cheney on Monday apparently failed to rally his base sufficiently; indeed a modest room at a local convention center was hardly packed.
NYT
…you can hear the Republicans groaning from here! LOL
#273 GG, is Catrina with a C still your Chick Magnate? or has her polarity been pulled back to the self appointed leader of the Pack?
Catrian,
Don’t need a licence to watch.
Finns,
Catrina used KR as a sugar daddy for entry and is now playing the room. She’s here, she’s weird and that is a good thing.
Thank you GG,
Clinton will go to the beginning of June, she will make and lose the argument over Florida and Michigan and concede defeat. This by definition will weaken Obama because front and centre will be the working class whites issue, she will want to do it to position herself as the candidate they should have chosen if BHO goes down.
McCain will campaign as a centrist – I am the change type candidate. who else do the conservatives have to vote for? ie he has to distance himself from Bush to the utmost.
Obama will write off the working class whites a la West Virginia, the issue will be whether the fabled new Obama voters actually exist and can be mobilised. Thus if the mid-west is given up by Obama (ie he doesnt try for the white conservative vote) he has to win in unusual places like the Carolinas and Virginia – not impossible but he has to get record black turnout and hold enough white vote to win.
For example Missisipi is something like 38% black and the blacks who do vote do in fact vote 90% democrat its just that the black turnout is less than the white turnout, if Obama got 30% of the black vote in old miss he only needs 33% of the whitey vote.
Alternatively he “triangulates” attacks blacks in a Sister Souljah moment to try and prove he is something new. Questionable if he will do that because he will be attacked as an Uncle Tom if he tries that tack AND reverend wright makes it hard to run on that.
If he goes for the new voter strategy I think he loses and McCain is president. The later maybe but I dont think the Democrats would really wear it.
Gr-e-e-e-nsborough Growler at 277
I never tried it, but I will, as the numbers turn over I’ll think about those super delegates slipping out of Hillary’s fingers, I think about you, and I’ll smile.
273 GG – That is a classic post.
GG I always wondered who would subscribe to the Weather Channel but Catrina provides the answer.
GG n Eddy sittin’ in a tree…………….
Harryd’H (cpe)
Shittin on thee……
ESJ,
You are not allowed to speak about anything on Foxtel. It apparently makes you a neocon. Apparently, the weather is a right wing conspiracy.
lol GG
you know your good self and Eddy are far to good to waste your excretement on a lowly Obamabot
Clinton last remaining argument for the SD’s is that she is more likely to be elected POTUS than Obama.
Well fair enough, I can’t fault her for making the argument, nor for her fans to recite it chapter and verse. But I don’t buy it.
Firstly, obviously, she has lost the primary race, surrendering a huge head start, and running an inept campaign. It’s a point that tends to weigh against being a superior candidate.
Clinton is an easy target for a Republican negative campaign. But they have held fire and focused on Obama, perhaps just to destabilise the primary process but also because he is seen as the bigger threat. Similarly, Obama has held off going negative on Clinton so that his negative attacks on McCain have more bite when the time comes.
Clinton has had the advantage of having very to fend off only light attacks. This means her results so far are an overstatement of what she can deliver. The flip side is that Obama’s results are an understatement of what he can deliver come November.
Also, in order to keep her campaign alive (such as it is) she has slipped into bigotry and economic illiteracy. While it’s helped her in recent primaries she has bleed support more broadly – to stay in the race she has poisoned her own well.
Greeensborough Growler and Edward StJohn
Guys – your so yesterday! Haven’t you heard about RSS?
Last time it was Jen, wasn’t it Eddy?
That’s right, you kept stalking her over what she looked like until she got so sick of your creepiness she told you where to get off.
Ah, ‘get off’, seems you like to by getting your little doggies all leg humpy together.
That ‘classic’ post of GG’s at 273 is your modus operandi: a snide personal and sexist attack. Yep, ‘classic’ Eddy if ever I saw it. No wonder you like it.
Evening all.
ESJ – The Repugs don’t have the luxury of taking their base for granted. Signs are already showing that the base is starting to fall out for them, so McCain’s biggest job of all will be shoring up the rednecks, fundamentalists, etc., or else they run the risk of decreased voter turnout.
This allows Obama to be the centrist player, not McCain, because Obama has more wriggle due to the fact that a LOT of people are angry with the current Bush administration and the general direction of US politics under the Repugs. Many of these will get out and vote Democrat no matter what.
This is why we have already seen poor turnouts for Republican primary contests, and why they are now being routed in places like Mississippi.
By the way, why are you and GG taking potshots at Catrina. I often log on here just to get her SD updates. It helps make this blog a source of information, far more valuable than reading reams and reams of “Hillary can still win” nonsense.
David Goud
The poll is a National poll , 850 people spread accross the US. As such the value is questionabe. But this one is compounded by trying to brak by numerous sub groups , so suggest you ignore it
A National poll 2 weeks ago showed 31% of Hillary supporters will vote McCain
2 corrections
David Gould
plus ‘per calendar day’
KR,
For someone who throws it around with gay abandon, you are far, far too precious when it comes back at you.
#288 _ cathrina with a C – RSS? Removalist’s Super S*it
Kirri, Kirri,
As they say in NSW politics time for a bex , cup of tea and a good sit down.
293
Greeensborough Growler
You’ve always played second fiddle to Eddy, haven’t you? What’s the matter diddums, just can’t do it without the ‘big’ boy to hide behind?
Unctious Snidely and his little mate, what a pair!
Catrina,
Where’s the SD count at now? Net margin will do
KR,
Pathetic response!
Your credibility stands on whether you can raise a credible smite.
Good luck.
Ah, the good ole days:
J.F.K. bought affection in West Virginia. “The boss of Logan County said 35,” Peters recalled. “He meant $3,500, but Kennedy thought it was $35,000, so he gave him $35,000. They put out all this money and they carried the precincts.” (Hillary has been using street money more than Obama, though it is unclear how much it has helped.)
MoDo, NYT
298
Greeensborough Growler
What’s up GG, isn’t the truth enough for you?
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