Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.
2,133 Comments
Nice thread title!
I have said it before but the Kentucky Derby scenario this year is the strongest damn omen and sign i have ever seen in my life.
Hillary, playing to the lunch bucket crowd on Derby Eve, knocks back a brewski and hands out her tip for the Derby:
The first filly in the race for over 20 years, Eight Belles, will show that it’s the Year of the Girl she proclaimed.
but
The filly Eight Belles runs a game second but breakdowns after the post and has to be euthanised.
The winner? An undefeated newcomer having only his 3rd start called Big Brown.
Unbelievable.
Big Brown has now won the second leg of the triple crown easily and looks like being the new phenominen of the modern era. No horse has won it since Affirmed in 1978.
Eerie
Come November, the Dems will give up Kentucky for dead. Like Indiana, it’s red-as-red-can-be, and McCain will have to be caught in bed with a young boy or (worse) a communist for the GOP to lose it.
But Oregon is a pale shade of blue, and a must-win for the Dems in the presidential election. Nestled between Washington State and California, Oregon is increasingly becoming an honorary member of the “Left Coast”, so it’ll be interesting to see how Obama scores here.
Bill Kristol, the deflated windbag of the neocons, is trying to re-inflate the Republican cause:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/opinion/19kristol.html?hp
…with John McCain, and it’s not really convincing.
He leaps on California and its Supreme Court and cites the 61% against on a ballot 8 years ago, whilst conveniently not mentioning the most recent poll down to just 51% against. (This is a usual Neocon debating trick: ignore the facts wherever they may be inconvenient truths).
So, let’s flog the gay issue even though the world is moving on faster than a Neocon’s neuron.
Secondly, he raises Bush in the Knesset and of course McCain’s parallel ME policies. Yep, Bill, they’re such a winner 6 out of ten want out of Iraq pronto. Appease Iran? Nah, talk to them before you go in with guns blazing though. Even Condi and Macca are on the record saying so.
And lastly, Republicans have won the presidency with Democrats getting the Congress, so hey, we may just be able to pull it off again, because the HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga.
That’s it, ladies and gentleman, the Republican hopes distilled into a bucket of luke warm crud.
Big Brown not only won by five lengths, but from the far outside position in the field.
I’m with HH, it’s some omen! LOL
Sad about Hillary though, er, I mean, her horse! A long way back second and a fall. Gotta say, it was surely an omen!
Good Evening, Bludgers,
1674, Jen Says: “personally RB I find there is nothing quite like chucking a franciscan.”
1677 Robert Bollard Says: “If he’s a bad abbot or a felonious monk then it’s surely justified.”
Just spent the day counselling a latte lefty who had recently converted to become a cappuccino monk. ‘Twas a torrid experience, indeed. The guy was a complete mess. At first he found the monastic life offered him a richly rewarding spiritual, olfactory and gustatory experience, however he wasn’t prepared for the full-on proselytising power of the Devil Bean. After his fifth cup of coffee this morning, Brother Kramer felt compelled to break free from the friary and tell somebody about it.
Was about to down a short black at my favourite shoterie and grapple with the psephological complexities of the upcoming primaries when the hyper-caffeinated missionary button-holed me and commenced to spill his guts. Mesmerised by his motor-mouthed delivery, I have only this moment managed to extricate myself from the ordeal because his fellow friars, deeply concerned at his unexplained absence from “Cappuccino Cloisters” had organised a search party. Like angels of mercy they swooped and lured the hapless novice away with the promise of a fix of primo Andean aribica.
So yes, jen and RB, know just how you feel!
#4
Nicely put, KR. More sane and sober Republicans are dreading November. They’ve lost three special elections this year in traditional GOP districts in Illinois, Louisiana and (last week) Mississippi. Not a good sign. Sure, it’s a protest vote against Bush; but winning the seat containing Tupelo (Elvis’s birthplace!) in Mississippi is a real coup for the Dems.
It’s the independent voters that swing elections, not the gun-toting hillbillies in their pick-up trucks. Unless the religious nutters come out in droves (and this bunch and McCain aren’t exactly soulmates), then the GOP is in big trouble. “The HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga”, but they would never vote Democrat anyway. The Dems have given up trying to win those redneck states that are still fightin’ the Civil War. In addition to the ’safe’ blue states, all they need is Florida, Ohio, a few upper MidWest states, maybe the SouthWest (especially New Mexico and Nevada), and the Presidency is theirs. Screw the old Confederacy – who needs ‘em.
KR: Re Kristol in the NYT at #4
Problem 1 doesn’t matter. See Democrat primary turnout. And the much-referenced salon article in the last thread.
Problem 2: “Thursday, the California Supreme Court did precisely what much of the American public doesn’t want judges doing: it made social policy from the bench.”
Well, maybe it helps some. McCain makes noises and promises to appoint Supreme Court justices that won’t legalise gay marriage (or at least won’t override state decisions in the matter). That plays with the right, I reckon, and well help him get out the Republican fundie base.
Problem 3 – he’s Neville Chamberlain in blackface! – don’t reckon it works. Reckon jawing might be back in favour with the US populace, as war-ing isn’t working real well.
And
“supporter-of-middle-American-values” is I suppose the new code for reminding the voters that he’s not-white. Still, it’s a problem for the Republicans – the more they try and slyly remind some voters about their weirdness about having a black president, the bigger the risk that playing-the-race-card turns off a significant number of the non-extremists any candidate needs to win. You know, the people who find racism, event hints and dogwhistles, a bit repulsive. Which includes a chunk of the fundie base. An interesting balancing act, perhaps.
I don’t know what you coves are smoking and inhaling, but 30 point losses in November will see McCain in the White House. Great omen.
Not surprised KR could not wait to mention the winners name. He never misses a chance to use excremental terms in his posts.
EC : Sure you didn’t add a little mixer to your friend’s brew? Obviously the coffee experience is a dangerous activity in your parts. Tea drinking is far more gentile, I say and leads to less strange behaviour.
Nice to see Kakuro embracing Obama’s 50 State strategy.
Gruffy, usually I mention excremental terms when you come in here chucking yours around. Of course Eddy then often follows up the rear (so to speak) and does the finger painting on the walls with it. That’s just his idea of spreading the joy.
Still, it’s your contribution, and we’ve come not to expect much better, and you haven’t disappointed.
Just been looking at a few maps on Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USMapCommonAncestry2000.PNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2008_Democratic_Primaries_Popular_Vote.png
Proof that Americans do love Clinton?
OK, I think we now know who’s going to be banging on for Macca until November, eh?
I’ve always suspected under that puerile gruff exterior was a rightwing bovver boy just aching to lurch right out and start head butting anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised.
If you look carefully, you can always pick ‘em. It’s the charm; gives it away every time! LOL
11
B.S. Fairman
On your second link, at the bottom of the page is one coded for delegate count.
Not much green (Clinton) on that one! LOL
We need at least one. The blog would be boring otherwise.
Some poor old Marxist made some nasty comments about alleged Vote Master inadequacies earlier today. The figures have been updated below and include the latest New Mexico Rasmussen numbers. Unfortunately for the POM it still shows Obama likely to lose against McCain (consistent with the trend for a few weeks). Time for some furious spin.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May19.html
Excellent timing, pity the message doesn’t quite square with the Idiot Decider’s. It’s so hard to get good puppet governments these days, they just don’t follow the rules:
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has dismissed claims that Iran is sending weapons into his country and called for strong Iran ties.
“Those who make such claims against Iran only express their personal views which don’t reflect those of the Iraqi government,” he said in interview with the Al-Arabiya TV on Friday.
“I, as the president of Iraq, do not agree with such views,” he added.
“Our Iranian brothers are ready for dialogue on any such issues,” Talabani said.
“As far as Iranian weapons are concerned it should be mentioned that during Saddam Hussein’s rule Iran provided weapons for the Iraqi opposition groups,” he added.
Talabani also called for enhanced ties between Iraq and Iran and said that “I strongly believe that the relations between Iran and Iraq in different fields could be further strengthened,” IRNA quoted him as saying.
presstv
15 GG
Here’s the spin, well selective facts really. Both 538 and electionprojection are projecting an Obama win for New Mexico.
No Gruffy, RB put forward a clear, precise argument with evidence
You are the one that came on ‘nasty’.
You can’t even tell the truth can you?
KR @ 10&12,
So let us be clear for all our fellow PBers,
1. Any two posters that robustly disagree with you are homosexuals?
2. This is a bad thing?
3. You are a font of wisdom on “anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised”.
Please make a coherent case for these enlightened thoughts.
Kirri is a bore, he should try a new schtick
I won’t bother describing what a load of self-serving and inaccurate (ie false) tosh this article by blowhard Neocon John Bolton is:
North Korea has also used the Six-Party Talks to gain time, testing its first nuclear weapon in 2006, all the while cloning its Yongbyon reactor in the Syrian desert.
…but suffice to say Bolton was thankfully removed and adults took up the dialogue with NKorea.
As for the ‘reactor in the Syrian desert’, no credible source thinks there is even a shred of evidence for this.
It’s more “Saddam buys yellowcake from Niger” crappola.
You can hear the chirping of the Neocons building up into a sad frenzy all over again as they stare annihilation in the face.
Bring it on, indeed!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121115528610702289.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
The finger painter has arrived.
Oh, what pearls of decorative wisdom shall he inscribe for us I wonder?
Diogenes,
There was some heated discussion earlier over Votemaster. KR seems to have worked himself up in to a lather of righteous outrage. He seems much happier that way.
nah Gruffy, just calling you liar, because you are one.
Anyone wishing to go and see this morning’s posts will conclude exactly the same.
You’re a bully, thick as a plank, and when you get called on it, you resort to lying about other posters, rather like old Snidely used to do until he got slapped for it.
Go on, suck on that.
You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.
25
William Bowe
Yeah, I’m right over it too.
You have an astounding lack of self-awareness sometimes, KR.
GG – so the fact that they’ve belatedly fixed the problem I pointed to is evidence it didn’t exist. Though it still doesn’t explain their inconsistency in occasionally using the latest poll (as they are now for New Mexico and still do for Wisconsin and Michigan) and other times using a poll average (as they did for New Mexico up until this last change). This latest decision favours Obama. But my point was not that there was some kind of conspiracy to favour Clinton, just that I didn’t agree with the methodology. Just calling each state on the basis of a single poll magnifies the margin of error, and produces “noise” that obscures trends.
But then that’s just furious Marxist spin, so you can ignore it if you want.
27
William Bowe
I’ll treat people the way they treat me. Call that a ‘lack of self-awareness’ if you like, but that’s my principle, and I apply it very consistently.
And I don’t suffer nongs terribly well, that may be construed as a failing, I’ll grant you that! LOL
William, some of us count ourselves lucky you don’t care anymore, as it’s very entertaining, if somewhat inexplicable, except in a bulls with horns locked together sense. Some of the other posters are informative, however, so I’d encourage not caring. Better for one’s blood pressure.
Soggy pizza, or just trouble with your base?
Here’s one blogger’s take on McCain:
McCain-Fiengold and McAmnesty are far left wing agendas. They have nothing to do with being moderate or conservative.
John McCain is a Democrat and has considered switching parties. True Republicans do not have a candidate this year. The Democrats will have two.
…now, for us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’, that is truly funny!
Obama is now moving on to the first phases of the main contest. For example, countering the standard conservative smear tactics. It doesn’t seem there will be any element of surprise in the attacks on Obama, unlike the out-of-the-blue ‘Swift Boat’ crap they threw at Kerry.
Apart from continuing to wear a flag pin a veteran recently gave him (props are always nice!), Obama is going to start emphasising ‘his life story as a uniquely American one.’. This is good. I was a little worried at his reluctance to engage more directly on some of the smears when up against Hillary, but without the constraints of an intra-party battle he is obviously going to be more aggressive against McCain. Obama’s effective reaction to the Hamas and the ‘appeasement’ stuff was the first sign, and the American roots emphasis is another:
‘Obama Shifts to Countering Republican Attacks on His Patriotism’
`My grandfather — Stanley Dunham — enlisted after Pearl Harbor and went on to march in Patton’s Army,” Obama said in Charleston. “My grandmother, meanwhile, worked on a bomber assembly line while he was gone, and my mother was born at Fort Leavenworth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axg8sEeN3dLA&refer=home
32
jaundiced view
So while Hillary was pretending to be Rosy the Riveter, Obama’s grandmother was in fact one!
Ironic, huh?
So Hillary wins Kentucky, Obama wins Oregan. Hillary still cant win. Hillary stays in the race. Have I got it wrong??
Are the rumours true that Hilary will gain an Acadamy Award nomination for Best Actress? Or perhaps, well deserved nomination for Best Supporting Actress in regard to good old Bill? What a couple of Troopers! Keeps the old Westerns alive in all of our minds!
34 Andrew
That’s about the size of it. Unless the Democrat SDs wheel out the equine ambulance and put her out of her, and our, misery with a mercy killing.
Well you know your chances for an Oscar are much better when you play someone with an infirmity…does being delusional count???
Equine ambulance has just driven up the road of common parlance.
It could come in handy, too.
Companero Roberto we never got past relativism as your defence.
Eduardo
David Letterman recently joked that with her campaign $21 million in debt, Hillary is at “the world’s most expensive fantasy camp.”
HAHAHAHHAHAHA
Hard to see why the SDs are holding back? Allegiance to Hillary and hoping she will quit before they show their hand. You’ve got to think if they were going to go for her they would have weeks ago when it may have helped her
Speculation Hillary will concede after the votes in Kentucky and Oregon on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Obama got a crowd of 75,000 to his rally in Portland, Oregon yesterday: a good sign he’ll win that primary this week, and the state will stay in Democrat hands this November.
You’d assume the Republicans will win Kentucky easily!
Now everyone, let’s play nice in William’s sandpit!
And further evidence that William is making a wise choice having given up on us (looks like that Stoic/Cynic philosophy has another adherent). It’s bad for you to have to be nice when you want to abuse someone.
Dieter Zapf of the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt studied 4,000 volunteers working in a fake call center. Half were allowed to respond in kind to abuse on the other end of the line while the other half had to suck it up, The Telegraph reports.
He found that those able to answer back had a brief increase in heart rate. Those who could not had stress symptoms that lasted much longer.
“Every time a person is forced to repress his true feelings there are negative consequences,” Zapf said. “We are all able to rein in our emotions but it becomes difficult to do this over a protracted period.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/05/16/scientist_smiling_can_hurt_your_health/2772/
Prog at 42, Hillary has repeatedly said she stays in until there is a nominee. Why quit now??
KR @ 33 – I think Grandma Obama’s riveting past might mean she can still put a few nails in the Repug coffin on behalf of her young grandson in ‘Operation Patriotism’.
Let’s see if the Idiot Decider’s dogwhistling from the floor of the Knesset changes anything, but I expect it won’t:
But a Gallup poll last month — in the midst of the Wright drama — found Obama beating McCain 61-32 among Jewish voters, a far wider margin than among the population as a whole. While that’s lower than John Kerry’s 76 percent margin among Jews (and 5 points lower than the 66 percent Hillary Clinton got in the same poll), Obama’s campaign isn’t worried about making up the difference by November. “If we’re beating McCain 2-1 after ‘Obama is a Muslim’ scares and a month of Rev. Wright, then we’re doing pretty well,” one aide said.
Salon
Well Andrew, it would be better for her party’s chances of winning the election if she would step aside and allow the candidate to get on with the main game. That however would require putting something else above her personal ambition, and so it won’t happen.
Progressive- can I bring my high horse into the sandpit?
45
jaundiced view
It’s going to be interesting to watch how Obama defuses the racial differences with his own personal history. The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.
Expect some ‘cognitive dissonance’ amongst some who already think ‘he ain’t one of us’.
34- Hillary will pull the pin on June 2th after Puerto Rico. A farewell tour of sorts.
What would be nice is her making some strong statement about Puerto Rico needing to be represented in the HoR (or even Statehood) which should help with the population back home in New York. Plus if she makes that an issue, it is likely to do more harm to Republicans than the Democrates (like illegal immigaration).
William must think we’re all a bunch of crackpots LOL
Jen: of course you can bring your high horse!
Kirribilli Removals: No doubt the Republicans are preparing the mother of all dirty tricks/smear campaigns for this election. Hopefully it backfires badly on them.
The recent vote in Mississippi proves that negative politics/personal attacks doesn’t work in 2008! It’s the economy, stupid!
KR @ 49 – [The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.]
Yes, exactly. It will help neutralise the patriotism attacks before they really start. The handbrake for the Repugs is that it is not a good look to attack an opponent’s frail grandparents or parents, which is what they would have to do – as in “Oh yeah, we bet Grandma Obama didn’t wear a lapel pin when riveting our bombers together in WW2″ – It just wouldn’t work, would it?
He is doing the correct thing putting it all out there now – I think plenty of background stuff from Barry’s (I hadn’t realised Obama was known as ‘Barry’ iin his younger days) all-American basketball buddies in Honolulu when at school would also be a good idea.
52- Australia elects a Kevin, Americans might elect a Barry. Will the Brits elect a Davo?
Someone earlier was saying they felt sorry for Colin Powell. I almost puked. I think of all the Iraq villains, he was the worst. The others are intrinsically evil people. And, as Ed Burke said, for evil to triumph it is necessary only that good men do nothing. In this case the “good man” did worse than nothing. He sold his credibility out and threw everything that is decent out the window. He will rot in hell with the rest. If he has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.
Or if you listen to this Flaming Lips clip (it needs to be VERY LOUD and you need to love people wearing furry animal costumes) Colin Powell is the Scarecrow, Ashcroft is the Tin Man and Rumsfeld is the Lion and they’re leading us down the Yellow Brick Road to Iraq. The song is George Bush’s Severed Head Army Mix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHsLZ7zYKsQ&feature=related
Sense has prevailed:
“MILWAUKIE, Ore. – Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10438.html
Some movement on RCP. Obama’s SD lead has moved up one from 21 to 22.
Meanwhile a Suffolk poll has just been released showing Obama’s Oregon lead over Clinton has been trimmed to +4. This follows an American Res Group poll released a couple of days ago showing Obama’s lead at +5. This leaves his average lead at 10.8 a drop of 2 since this morning.
Hillary’s KY lead has also been trimmed very slightly to 29.6
Diogenes – ‘Flaming Lips clip’ ? Crikey – don’t say that 6 times quickly! And with ‘furry animal costumes’. Is that sort of thing allowed on YouTube? Hmmm … I don’t think I should look.
FernyG @ 55 – Seems like a sensible call – that sort of declaration would gain nothing and could get some backs up unnecessarily. There’s no need to engage the Clinton camp now. Why jump back in the water when you’ve just climbed into the lifeboat?
And FernyG – Did you notice that amazing picture of the Oregon crowd on your link page- the tightly packed sea of faces? A lot of – dare I say it – white faces. I think the pics of that crowd might assist in closing the race off. It just has to resonate as a symbol of the overall mood for Barry that will carry right through into the general campaign.
RG @28,
1. I actually posted the up date for your information. A thank you would be nice. One free swipe is allowed.
2. You could have contacted the site owner instead of causing all this bother.
3. At least everyone knows you are a poor old Marxist which is good for an informed debate/discussion.
4. Is calling me names the Marxist doctrine or the your famous teaching skills coming out?
5. You got a lively discussion.
Cheers
Diogenes #54. Powell began hbis career as a 31 year old “investigator” who discovered nothing wrong at Mai Lai. That he was the considered a liberal woose in the Bush administration says something for the regime that’s been running then world for the last 8 years.
Just a footnote about the idiot Grover Norquist and his lunatic notion that all tax is theft. Essentially, most people in most major countries actually see income redistribution via taxation as THE purpose of government:
The Financial Times reports on a FT/Harris survey found a surprising consensus across eight countries in Europe and Asia, as well as in the US, that increasing income disparity was undesirable. Not surprisingly, respondents favored increasing taxes on the rich.
…and the numbers are astounding. We aren’t talking election majorities, we are talking 75-85% in Europe for example. (Japan was the lowest at 64%).
It seems the far right have a tendency to dream up ludicrous panaceas in fields like foreign policy and social policy, then by ignoring the evidence of what people actually want, shove them at the public and call any opposition the work of ‘liberals’ ‘appeasers’ or non-patriots.
Superdelegate Update
DNC Dwight Pelz (WA) has endorsed Obama bring his overall delegate lead back to 199 while dropping the pool of remaining delegates to 410.
Running tally of delegates needed to close the race:
Obama: 108 (26.3% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (74.9% of the pool)
A reality-check analysis (on Bloomberg) as to why we shouldn’t be too concerned over the VP choices:
Over the past 50 years, 17 men and one woman have been chosen by the major parties to run for the vice presidency of the U.S. Only one — Lyndon Johnson in 1960 — demonstrably affected the outcome of the presidential race.
This is worth remembering as the nation enters the quadrennial feeding frenzy over completing the tickets. It’s a big decision for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama and will send important signals; it probably won’t make much difference on Nov. 4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a8aZdQtitYJo
Getting this war up against Iran is proving a lot harder than the last one for Idiot Decider:
The George W Bush administration’s plan to create a new crescendo of accusations against Iran for allegedly smuggling arms to Shi’ite militias in Iraq has encountered not just one but two setbacks.
The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki refused to endorse US charges of Iranian involvement in arms smuggling to Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, and a plan to show off a huge collection of Iranian arms captured in and around the central city of Karbala had to be called off after it was discovered that none of the arms was of Iranian origin.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE16Ak02.html
…a little war for Macca to talk tough about would just be what the doctor ordered, eh?
Pity the Iraqis keep refusing to play ball.
jaundiced view at 63
However, many historical trends could be well and truly be moved to redundancy given that internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA.
KR at 64
Whatever happened to those good old days when you could count on the loyalty of your friends?
Catrina @ 65 – [internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA]
You might be right about a change in the election dynamics on what we’vee seen in the campaign so far Catrina – maybe Obama should choose as VP someone who would be a good web-cam dancer on YouTube.
66
Catrina
Remeber when puppet governments were exactly that, and danced on the end of a string to your tune?
But these modern day ones, aargh, they have no idea how to behave. Imagine, they act like it’s their country and that they can choose how to treat their neighbours.
It’s so uncouth!
Jen, you earlier posted about some grunt using the Koran for target practice. Well, here’s an interesting letter to the editor in today’s NYT, and it’s conclusion sums up just why they just cannot behave like this and hope to win anything in the ME:
Thomas L. Friedman quotes Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator, who has observed that in the Middle East, the United States is “not liked, not feared and not respected.”
My travels in the Middle East tell me that Mr. Miller’s assessment might be generous.
We have squandered the respect and admiration once felt for us in the Arab world, and we are now seen as aggressive militarists bent on imposing our will on the Arab people and their nations and blindly supporting Israel in its oppression of the Palestinians.
At all levels of Arab societies, one hears the mantra: “We like the American people. We do not like your government.”
Our sitting president is usually singled out as the prime culprit, but in truth, there are many who share the responsibility for our tarnished image.
We are in a struggle against terrorism and extreme fundamentalism. We cannot win without the help of the Arab world and the larger Muslim world. It is sheer madness to alienate them as we have done.
…should we put up GG’s response on the NYT to show the quality of Australian discourse?
Eh? LOL
GG#59 You are doing handstands and back flips to cover yourself, but it just won’t work. I posted a straightforward and purely psephological concern about a US site. You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse. Now I’m at fault because I didn’t notify the site of my concerns first “instead of causing all this bother”. What bother? I’m sure the author of the site is terribly upset that you and I have had an argument on an Australian website about the validity of his methodology (or to be more precise, I’ve questioned it and you’ve called me – for some obscure reason “Colonel Klink”).
The fact is that your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response. You read my original post and all you noticed was that I had had a go at Hillary for being “poll-driven” re her initial support for the Iraq War and that now (shock horror!) I was talking about polls as if I cared what they said. Unless you’re a dribbling cretin (which, despite your occasional stupidity I suspect you’re not) this was not a serious answer to the post but an off the cuff crack based on the fact that you’ve given up on any form of intervention except the frivolous and the gladiatorial. You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word “polls” and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
Fair enough at one level.
But you’ve since tried to alter your argument at least twice to cover up the initial abuse. Now your concern is my failure to contact the poor maligned Votemaster. To be honest, while I am curious to know why he/she has adopted the methods he/she has, it never occurred to me that he/she would be interested in an email from an Aussie. In any case I can’t find an address on the site. But who cares? If I had a go at Fox News, or CBS or MSNBC or the Wangaratta Courier would you demand that I emailed them first before besmirched their name by questioning their methodology?
PS I am poor and a Marxist, but I’m not a poor Marxist.
jaundiced view at 67
Its a lot more than just election dynamics – it goes straight into the hear of the principal of government for the people by the people. If you think about this from a geo-political perspective, the USA is on the cusp of having less internet users than China (at least in 2007 the numbers were 210 for USA and 162 for China). Accountability of government directly to the people outside of regular media channels is something very new and its this challenge that presents an opportunity for the Democrats to hold power for a really long stretch. In effect – you have the combination of the technology with the entry of new voters. The Republican Party will loose this election, and they will have to take the trip into the wilderness and rei9nvent themselves – but that will take a long time simply because they will be struggling to bring the new blood.
RB,for what it’s worth, what you’ve described is exactly what happened, but the behaviour is now so predictable I doubt I really need to tell anyone that.
RB, you were quite right the first time: dipstick.
Take it easy on GG Robert.
After all , he’s having to do all his own groundwork the last few days. No r/Ron,no Finns or no Glen to do the groundwork while he waits for his opening to abuse.
Poor sod is having to initiate , do a bit of hard work and finally get his big chance to abuse.
I bet the Ol Dog is sittin’ at the monitor pleading for his cultivated allies to return to battle.
Something to cheer up the hungry pack wolves.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,355756,00.html
Mmmmm, Faux News telling it like it REALLY is!
That’s gotta be a first.
Some breakdowns:
Rasmussen Reports regularly asks voters to identify themselves ideologically on both fiscal and social issues. The significance of this distinction is highlighted by the fact that just 11% of voters currently consider themselves fiscally liberal while 29% say they are liberal when it comes to social issues. An overview of how the nation’s voters break down along these lines was presented last fall.
Not surprisingly, among voters who are both fiscally and socially liberal, Obama leads McCain 84% to 6%. Among those who are conservative on both scales, McCain leads Obama 80% to 9%. As for those who consider themselves moderate on both fiscal policy and social issues, Obama is favored 54% to 36%.
When the views of those who are fiscally moderate but socially liberal are measured, Obama comes out on top, 72% to 21%. As for those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate, McCain leads 70% to 20%. The categories of voters mentioned in these two paragraphs cover 67% of the nation’s voters.
…moderates on both, like say independents? Nice.
That’s the easy response, KR. Actually, I read the article, and it says almost nothing. It might cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas.
Meanwhile, the RCP have added two SDs to Obama. Dom’t know who they are and I couldn’t be buggred at this hour trying to find out. No doubt the Goddess of superdelegates, Catrina, will enlighten us in due course.
77
Robert Bollard
Gotta admit I read it too, but was way too lazy to come up with anything as remotely amusing as “cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas”!
You can feel the desperation, knowing that they are going to get walloped in Nov and all that stands between them and annihilation is a very old man who’s mostly not even considered a real Republican by their base.
Good luck!
KR #76 What do they mean my “fiscally liberal”. Classic liberalism is pro-free market, but, of course, in the US “liberal” means something different. I would expect that there are a large number of Americans who are pissed off at NAFTA, at the consequences of neo-liberalism etc who are socially conservative (haven’t I just described Hillary’s base?). I find it hard to believe that only 11% are fiscally liberal. The other problem is whether the survey asked them: “are you fiscally liberal”, and the bitters answered “goddam I hate them liberals! They want to take my guns!”
RB,
I accept your sincere apology. However, I am sad that:
1.You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse.
2.You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word GG and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
3.Your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response.
The pleasure has been all yours.
Greeensborough Gardner at 80
Oh gosh! Oh my! Pot, kettle, black?
ROTFLOL
79
Robert Bollard
It’s fascinating the way they’ve inverted the English language, isn’t it?
I really can’t decide whether being ‘fiscally liberal’ is rude or not! LOL
(Although I took it to mean those who’d like to see higher taxation and more ‘liberal’ services)
81
Catrina
It’s a very special brand of irony, isn’t it?
Is this a hint of things to come? Obama tells Tennessee’s GOP: ‘Lay off my wife’.
The kid is drawing some lines in the sand.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24708462/
GG#80 regarding my “apology” – a joke told to me by an old Jewish Trotskyist (born in Palestine in 1917 – a good year).
Circa 1931, Mayday parade in Moscow. Stalin is in his element. After the march he announces to the crowd: “Comrades, I have a telegram from Trotsky! [Boos] It reads: ‘I’m wrong. You’re right. I should apologise.’” The crowd goes wild, but up the front a small Jewish man is jumping up and down with his hand in the air. Stalin ignores him at first, but the man is insistent. Eventually Stalin says: “What is the matter comrade?” “Comrade Stalin! Comrade Stalin! You read it wrong!” “What do you mean?” The man pleads with Stalin to let him read the telegram and, eventually, Stalin relents. He reads:
“I’m wrong?!!! You’re right?!!!! I should apologise?????!!!!!”
85
Robert Bollard
Delightful.
Apposite.
Pearls before swine, unfortunately.
OK.
Long day.
Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers (and slapping the children when they muck up)
Got that?
Night all.
RB, you’ re a very nice old Marxist.
Non! je ne regrette rien!
It’s goodnight to you. And it’s goodnight to him.
Kirribilli Removals at 87
Yes sir, will do!
KR,
You remind me of a chihuaha trying to root my ugg boot. I admire the intensity of effort and I love that earnest cross eyed look you get at a particular moment. However, it is never going to work out mechanically because whenever I get up for another beer you fall off and roll on your back with your legs in the air. All you can see is this tiny red dick. And that is my image of you.
Good night.
Greeensborough Gardner at 90
*slap*
Well worth reading….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/19/barackobama.uselections2008
Superdelegate Update
Barak Obama breaks through the 200 ceiling with his delegate lead over Hillary Clinton with the endorsement by Senator Robert Byrd from West Virginia.
As a consequence – the end game numbers shift a little and the pool shrinks just a little bit more with just 409 delegates undeclared (220 supers and 189 pledged). The number of delegates that Obama needs to win the nomination is now down to 107 while Clinton stays stead on 307. Looking ahead beyond the Kentucky and Oregon competitions the pool will shrink again to around 311. Obama will be looking to secure a further 59 delegates while Clinton will be staring down the barrel of a missing 257 delegates against a pool of just 311 (which is just 57 delegates away from the end-of-time).
Dio at 54: “If he (Colin Powell) has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.”
Amplifying Robert Bollard at 60,
Colin Powell was once Colonel Colin Powell of the 7th Americal Division in Vietnam, the propaganda unit that denied the My Lai massacre had taken place until in broke in the US MSM in the days when the MSM actually had a skerrick of integrity. Powell always sat comfortably on Uncle Sammy’s porch till he was “cut loose” to shill the propaganda that helped manufacture homegrown consent for the Iraq invasion and occupation with his shuck and jive powerpoint display at the UN in 2003.
“In his report Powell wrote: “In direct refutation of this portrayal is the fact that relations between Americal soldiers and the Vietnamese people are excellent.” Powell’s handling of the assignment was later characterized by some observers as “whitewashing” the atrocities of My Lai.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Lai_massacre
Another Superdelegate Update
Obama breaks though the 300 superdelegate endorsment count with the endorsement today from DNC Larry Gates from Kansas. Larry’s endorsement puts Obama’s super delegate total at 300.5 compared to Clinton’s 276.5. The pool of remaining delegates drops to 408.
The numbers (pledged, supers, and the Pelosi factor):
Obama: 1919
Clinton: 1718
The numbers needed to close the nomination:
Obama: 106 (26% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.2% of the pool)
But keep in mind the shake-up on Tuesday when 98 delegates are removed from the pool, leaving just 310 delegates in play. Although Clinton will probably gain some ground on Tuesday, it is for the most part just clutching at straws in that it will not come close to number of delegates that Obama has captured in the last week alone. Irrespective of all of that, these numbers will probably be shaken up on the 31 May when Michigan anf Florida come into play, but even then, the advantage to Clinton will not have an appreciable impact on the Obama lead.
Mon May 19: http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsQbWqf1hJwKcCwCVZubcZpX_b4F
Oh – poor Fido!
Yes, life’s cruel, Catrina, it’s always the innocents who end up taking the fall, like the hapless pooch, although I’ll wager this one didn’t go anywhwere near ugg boots.
There’s a whole bunch of mightily peeved GOP-lovin’ pet owners out there who are going to stay home in droves come November:)
———————–
“Clinton’s path looks something like this: Win huge in the remaining states (a massive margin in Kentucky and an upset in Oregon), close Obama’s 700,000-vote lead in the popular tally (without counting Florida and Michigan), and marshal these numbers to persuade superdelegates of Obama’s unelectability. Piece of cake.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191697/
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080519_thriller/
Enemy Combatant at 98
Re. the graveyard shift – LOL – yes, yes, and just remember I’ve still got a bunch of final nails in stock.
Hope they’re longuns. Couple of years ago my darlin’ daughter turned me on to NIN. Like ‘em a lot but I’m forbidden from mentioning it in front of her mates!
Better get back to the casket before the the sun comes up. Cheers.
98
Enemy Combatant
Except Clinton is NOT behind in the popular vote.
She says so:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is entering the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on Tuesday with one of the most pugnacious political messages of her campaign: That she is ahead in the national popular vote when all votes are counted, including from the unsanctioned primaries in Michigan and Florida and that party leaders who have a vote as super-delegates should reflect this level of appeal.
This argument is of a piece with Mrs. Clinton’s increasingly populist image, as a fighter on behalf of average people, but it is also a debatable claim: Most tallies of the national popular vote put Mr. Obama in the lead, especially when Michigan and Florida are not counted.
NYT
So, there.
Who does she have doing the counting, Bosnian snipers?
I know that good help is hard to find, but you’d think for $20m you could at least hire someone who could actually count!
I fear she will not go quietly into the night.
How many Bosnian snipers does it take to count the popular vote?
One, and she’s nine, reads you poetry, but she CAN count!
But Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan and he didn’t campaign in Florida: that tends to negate the legitimacy of Hillary’s argument! She’s clutching at straws, very thin ones!
Good morning Bludgers! How soon before Ron and his mates invade the board?
Speaking of elections: Labor in the UK will likely lose the Crewe & Nanwich byelection to the Conservatives on Friday. Gordon Brown is screwed: how soon before someone like David Miliband challenges, or will they let Brown carry the can for losing the 2010 election?
103
Progressive
Standing up and spinning a fantasy is a very good job interview style for POTUS. Look at the current job holder!
She really is toast now, and this stuff is just her trying to pull in a few more bucks before the final curtain.
I think she’s ably demonstrated that she’s more of the same and does not have the moral character for the job in 2008.
For anyone who needed proof, she’s delivered it.
Excuse the indulgence of an off topic post, but Bludgers, a toast to the PM:
KEVIN RUDD has established the strongest lead over an Opposition leader in three decades, just as Brendan Nelson’s feud with his Liberal rival, Malcolm Turnbull, makes their relationship almost unworkable.
A Herald/Nielsen poll taken after last week’s budget shows Mr Rudd leading Dr Nelson as preferred prime minister by 70 per cent to 17 per cent. It is the biggest lead since the poll began in 1972, and higher than the 42-point lead John Howard held over Simon Crean in May 2003.
“It’s the biggest hammering in history,” said the Nielsen pollster John Stirton.
SMH
Horatio, lower than Crean.
Suck on that Nelson.
Obama, needs to do better if he wants to be credible on foreign policy and especially in how he proposes to deal with America’s enemies.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/19/mccain_blast_obama_over_iran_t.html
Progresive @104,
It seems like the cuckoo is already in the nest.
Kirribilli Removals: it’s sad actually watching the disintergration of Hillary Clinton’s political career. I wish she’d have got out of this race much earlier with some dignity, followed the example set by Richardson, Edwards etc.
I guess the problem is the Clintons can’t accept defeat/reality.
Hopefully you and I will be celebrating the victory of President Elect Obama in November AND getting very drunk!
Folks, if you want a good laugh, check out the blog on Hillary’s site!
One wonders what those people over there are smoking LOL
It’s the number of delegates that matters, not who supposedly leads the popular vote tally.
Question for you Progressive and anyone else (just cause I love hypotheticals) if you were Hillary Clinton, when would you have pulled out of the race. HAs there been a really obviously time when she could have done it?
on the subject of god-bothering:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/anotherthing/316971
Whats truly amazing is that in such a strong Democrat year is that McCain is competitive at all – says it all really as to just how weak a candidate Obama really is!!!
ppfffttt!!!!
ESJ, they need someone more like Kevin Rudd, yes?
from her own mouth: why she won’t quit!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-this-is.html
116
elitebutterfly
Her claim is that she can win in November?
Well, guess what lady, you can’t win NOW, so bugger November, coz ya won’t be running if you can’t win NOW.
Sheeesh, talk about lawyer speak!
As for McCain being ‘competitive’, well let’s wait a few months until we have some consistent polls for Obama/McCain before we get too frisky. Although I know a couple here will be riding Eight Bells McCain to a second place and a short ride in the Equine Ambulance at the finish! LOL
110
Progressive
Hillary’s Kool Aid is just so past its use by date!
But come November Pro, we’ll be getting roaring drunk when Obama is elected.
Clinton is only fundraising now, she cannot possibly win. Although it will be a different atmosphere when she finally concedes that he’s won and starts playing with the team.
Zimmer unzipped
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/85827/
107
GG
What? Better than this:
“Senator Obama claimed that the threat Iran poses to our security is ‘tiny’ compared to the threat once posed by the former Soviet Union,” McCain said. “Obviously, Iran isn’t a superpower and doesn’t possess the military power the Soviet Union had. But that does not mean that the threat posed by Iran is insignificant.”
Obama did not use the word “tiny” to describe the threat, but to describe the size of Iran, Cuba and Venezuela compared with the former Soviet Union.
“Iran, Cuba, Venezuela — these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don’t pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us,” Obama had said.
“And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, ‘We’re going to wipe you off the planet.’ And, ultimately, that direct engagement led to a series of measures that helped prevent nuclear war, and over time allowed the kind of opening that brought down the Berlin Wall.”
…now, that’s called an argument based on the facts, and not peddling fear to keep your hegemonic ambitions fueled for constant war.
By the way, in his own voice, the voice of ‘experience’:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEtZlR3zp4c
119 Good work codger. Talk about a straw in the wind. Can McCain keep the MSM on a leash? I doubt it.
119
codger
hey Codge, you beat me to it by 3 minutes, but I had more to type!
The viral vortex of the internet is spinning furiously! LOL
William Bowe # 25
May 19th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
“You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.”
No wonder, just three days I’m away & this lot of rampant academia inspired elitist lattee sipping butterflys have turned an intellectual thread on the US election , into a daffodil nest of giggling pixys & feline chirping butterfly insults.
The sole purpose of the Democrat Primarys is to select the ‘best’ Democrat candidate to win POTUS. ”Best” means the by far more electable.To argue otherwise as the Obama supporters have put, guts the very meaning of a political Party’s very existence… to win office.This basic point the Obamabots have been demolished on from day one). The ObamaRealists at least have conceded this. Clearly Hillary is the ‘best’ candidate on this priority criteria.
Whether or not Obama has better ‘character’ or ‘message’ (both of which I dispute in any event) are immaterial to the above Democrat Party’s prime objective. Historically the most electable candidate also wins the delegate race
The 2008 Democrat Primarys are unique because this is not the case , because the ‘best’ candidate (Hillary by far more electable) may end up with 49% of the delegates to Obama’s 51% (who is br far less electable) & obama only holds that 51/49 lead on the back of one ethnic voting bloc , his ‘own’ , a 12% minority in the population who have decisively voted 90%+ for Obama especially in key primarys.
All the credible electability criteria shows Hillary as by far the most electable which is the sole reason Obambots have never credibily challenged this fact
Beit the the swing state polls , all key demographics , other psephology factors, the only independent vote map by a registered Democrat,and Hillary’s majority voter support US-wide on the white working poor vote , as well as all white votes , all Hispanic votes & all Asian votes. Any sensible political analysis would conclude the ‘best’ candidate is clearly Hillary.
Team Obama have ‘played’ 90%+ ethnic race bloc to ‘play’ the Democrat Primary system against its fundamental purpose & against the Party’s interests (Hillary would have thrashed a white Obama) , and now compound this misuse of the same bloc as intimidatory desertion threats to secure SD’s for Obama. The SD’s should remedy this rort by voting in bloc for Hillary , the ‘best’ (the most electable) Candidate on merit , not on race.
As for ‘character’ (only some of his sketetons have descloed here), his
numerous dispeputable associations would render Obama completely ineligible
for any Government appointed position or Statutory position in ‘oz ,let alone for POTUS.
The ObamaRealists have been gradually quietened by the Obamabots increasingly becoming ‘bitter’ at the exposure of these twin voting/SD ethnic rorts , their now naked intellegentias elitist shallowness & their inability to articulate in detail the 3 core ‘one liner’ themes (more apparently hollow) of Obama’s candidature
GG at 107 [Obama, needs to do better if he wants to be credible on foreign policy]
Not a problem. He’s used McCain’s attack as a springboard for his own message again. The kid is not taking a backward step against McCain, and his line is a very strong one that ties in with the concept of the need for change. This spat about Iran wedges McCain – all it does is paint him with Bushwash.
“OBAMA FIRES BACK AT MCCAIN ”
Obama responded to McCain’s criticism of recent comments the Illinois senator made about Iran, linking the presumptive GOP nominee to what he called the failed policies of George Bush.
…
Obama asked what Bush and McCain were afraid of when it came to dealing directly with Iran. “Demanding that a country meets all your conditions before you meet, before you meet with them — that is not a strategy. It is just naïve, wishful thinking,” he said. “I’m not afraid that we will lose some propaganda fight with a dictator. It’s time for America to win those battles because we have watched George Bush lose them year after year after year.”
40-love Obama.
The link for 124
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/19/1041108.aspx
123
Ron
You can ramble on Ron, but the fact is the voters don’t actually agree with you, and Obama has outflanked your horse, come around the outside, and raced home to the finish line ahead.
Your nag’s all but finished.
Do get over it, or do we have to see you bang on about Hillary being the ‘best’ candidate until Obama wins in November?
Really, Ron, we know what you think, but it’s your opinion, and it has no bearing on the fact that she is losing, has lost, is out.
Move on, Ron, move on.
124
jaundiced view
Even the Iraqis are wedging McCain, as they refuse to play this “axis of evil” gobshite stuff that Republicans use to scare the kiddies.
Obama just reminds everyone who the adult is whenever he addresses the issue and shows the utter hyperbolic nonsense coming out the Republicans for what it is.
JV, we’ll no doubt hear this line a few times:
“John McCain is right that the greatest threat we face is a terrorist with a nuclear weapon — that’s why when he was busy supporting a war against a country that had no nuclear weapons, I was busy in the Senate working with Republican Dick Lugar to pass legislation to secure loose nuclear weapons and loose nuclear materials around the world!”
Three trillion dollars later…!
Yay! We’re Pixies! GG is a hobgoblin, ESJ is a troll (nothing new there) and Ron is….the Jabberwock! Watch him, eyes aflame, whiffle through the tulgey wood and burble as he comes.
KR @ 128 – I hope we do hear that line repeated regularly – it’s McCain’s weakest point. But there are plenty of other McCain weak points to target – not least the economy.
Another huge win for Obama! Endorsement from the Decemberists (one of the best alternative rock bands in the world). Those 75,000 people in Portland weren’t there for Obama. They were there to see the Decemberists. Obama has proven very adept at getting brilliant indy bands to perform for him and booth the youth turnout.
http://www.pitchforkmedia.com/article/news/50740-photos-the-decemberists-at-barack-obama-rally-portland-or-051808
Dio #131 What’s he doing with young people in booths? Are you trying to start a rumour?
Diogenes
First it was the Flaming Lips, now the Decemberists.
I’m starting to suspect you’re a med student rather than a professional….
McCain’s campaign slogan has been released:
“WE are the only ones who can save you from the disaster we’ve created!”
Ron
Would you accept that Hillary also got a disproportionate vote from white women? Do you see this as a ‘bloc’?
130
Diogenes
The Decemberists of Stephen Colbert guitar face off fame?
Like, wow, man, that Obama MUST be cool.
134
Yo ho ho
Oh no, Yo ho ho, you can’t call he Menopausal Bloc a ‘bloc’, that sexist! But you can Obama’s ‘block vote’ a bloc, that’s different.
133
Ferny Grover
That’s slightly better than the anti-depressant TV ad slogan they chose recently!
Maybe you should send it to them. It at least has one element of truth to it.
Here’s a comment from a real voter in the US which provides an insight into attitudes underpinning the US voters approach to security issues.
“Here’s the bottom line: Iran wants the bomb. Period. They aren’t gonna voluntarily stop until they have it. Sanctions aren’t gonna work. Neither will “negotiations” and “diplomacy”, nor any of the other fig leaves that the pacifists typically trot out. The mullahs want their bomb and they’re just stalling for time. Anyone who seriously believes otherwise is an idiot.
Given this situation, we have two choices here:
1) Continue to dither, hem & haw, taking the “high road” while the mullahs get their bomb, then cross our fingers and hope to God that they don’t ever actually use it (or, more likely, give it to a terrorist group to use while they sit back and watch). This is what you’ll get with President Obama.
2) Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble. This is what you’ll get with President McCain.
There is no third option, people.
For my part, I’m going with #2, and it’s not even close. Anyone who has ever studied Shia islam knows that devout shia believe that for The Mahdi to return to Earth and usher in an era of perfect peace & justice, there has to first be a period of global conflagration to wipe out the existing order.
Barack Obama showed his ignorance when he stated that Iran isn’t as big a threat as the Soviets were. The Soviets, at the end of the day, valued life more than ideology. The religious zealots running Iran value ideology more than life. Religious extremists are capable of actions that normal people cannot comprhend, and this is precisely why the idea of an Iran with nuclear weaponry is patently unacceptable to all but the most delusional, pie-in-the-sky liberals.
John McCain understands this. Barack Obama does not.”
Some recent numbers:
RCP has bumped Obama’s SD lead up 3 to 25.
Most recent Oregon Polls: RCP average is Obama by 12.0
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV 45 41 Obama +4.0
PPP (D) 05/17 – 05/18 1296 LV 56 38 Obama +18.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 – 05/18 627 LV 55 42 Obama +13.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/16 600 LV 50 45 Obama +5.0
Portland Tribune 05/08 – 05/10 400 LV 55 35 Obama +20.0
Most recent KY polls: RCP av is Clinton by 29.2
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV 51 25 Clinton +26.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/15 600 LV 65 29 Clinton +36.0
SurveyUSA 05/09 – 05/11 641 LV 62 30 Clinton +32.0
Research 2000 05/07 – 05/09 500 LV 58 31 Clinton +27.0
Rasmussen 05/05 – 05/05 800 LV 56 31 Clinton +25.0
And, finally, Slate has docked Hillary another 0.1 to sink her chances to 1.6%.
Here Sharky, Sharky Sharky….!
YHH, that brings up the profound question: are menopausal women intelligent individuals who can see past Hillary’s gender, or are black people only capable of seeing the colour of Obama’s skin?
Of course white women are thinking people if they prefer Hillary, but black people are just tribal jungle bunnies who can only identify with someone of their skin colour.
It’s obviously not possible for black people to prefer Obama’s message and character over Hillary’s on objective criteria, is it?
138
Greensborough Growler
A truly well informed commentator, huh Gruffy?
This is exactly the type of tripe that pushes Iran to want one, and the kind of mindless idiocy that’s put them in Iraq for no advantage and at endless cost.
This poster is so uninformed about the realities of Shia, Iran, and the geopolitics that it’s not worth even starting.
If this swill is the limit of your understanding, (and I haven’t seen otherwise) can I suggest you spend a few years reading about the regional players and the history of the place?
You just might, with effort, learn something.
135 KR
Yes, the Decemberists had a guitar faceoff with Stephen Colbert. The group has created a new genre of music called “hyperliterate rock” or “thesaurus rock” due to the ultra-genius IQ of its lead singer, Colin Meloy. About the only time I get out a dictionary now is when I’m listening to a new album of theirs. What other rock group uses the words tamaracks, palanquin, falderal and chaparral in a single song!
This just reinforces the stereotype of Obama and his supporters being intellectual elites but WTF, I don’t care!
KR
Ron’s assertion that Obama’s leading position comes from the black vote (10% as he says) sort of got me thinking (as much as i can these days). I assume that if the black vote is 10%, i can’t imagine the Hispanic vote being much more (let’s say 10% as well). Chuck in the other racial groups (Asian etc) and let’s say the minorities come to 50% of the vote.
That would mean that white woman are around 25% of the rest. And i’ve been led to believe they vote strongly for Clinton. And she still lost.
Of course, this is horrendously crude and uninformed pseudo-psephology. And i apologise to all for even submitting this comment. Just thinking out loud i guess.
“The Soviets, at the end of the day, valued life more than ideology.”
If that line alone didn’t alert you to the level of uninformed shite in the post, GG, then nothing will.
Someone on Daily Kos has made a good case for Al Gore to be Obama’s Veep – as an experienced white Southerner with labour ties and a burning interest in fighting global warming.
So, in the lull before the OR/KY storm we’re distracting ourselves with musical appreciation?
In that case, I’m working at the moment to the accompaniment of The Blue Nile’s ‘High’ album, having just enjoyed David Gilmour’s “On an Island.” Nice.
145
Phil Robins
“a burning interest in fighting global warming”…now, that’s a unique way of putting it! LOL
I don’t think Gore is even remotely interested in being a polly again, but an interesting argument.
138 – GG ["Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble."]
That apocryphal citizen advocating the same arrogant and dangerous intervention is clearly one of the 28% of his fellow citizens who believe the US is headed in the right direction. In the meantime Obama is addressing the other 72% about the change in direction they want.
142
Diogenes
Dio, that just proves that the world is running out of rhymes and these poor deluded people have turned to the Thesaurus for inspiration! LOL
Now, another thing to worry about: Peak Rhymes!
Growler-
“2) Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble. This is what you’ll get with President McCain.”
yep. That works.
KR,
Trying to root my boot again! I down loaded EC’s little cartoon @96 (hat tips EC) and put put a tiny red circle in texta in an appropriate spot and pinned the whole thing to my nearest board. Every time you slag me off, I’ll be thinking of the tiny little red prick you are.
What it is , is an example of mainstream opinion. Your denialist bomastic burblings seek to ignore the reality that there are deeply held views that endorse the comment above. Obama’s bleatings to date will in no way persuade them that he has their national security interests at heart.
If Obama wants the nomination and the POTUS then he will need to develop a better communications strategy to get these voters in the boat.
So you want a POTUS who will pander to ignorance and fear, GG? You’ve already got one of those.
Leadership is not about getting those folk on board; it’s about showing the nation why those views are dangerous and downright wrong. Obama’s doing that
GG, enough cyber bullying. You might make KR/wrist.
How does Obama appeal to those kinds of voters without becoming a facsimile of the neocons? What would be your strategy?
FG,
The point is that by not engaging them, you ended up with W.
Who is he convincing? A bunch of left leaning bloggers in the antipodes . That really counts!
Growler- as well as we sad, deluded little lefties on PB it would seem that Obama is having a bit of an impact with a few others in the US. I imagine you saw the photo of the rally fro example,and have seen his lead in teh pledged delegates. Of course, it is possible that all these millions of supporters are as stupid as we are, but I think not.
And one of the reasons he has such support is that he does not support your option 2. Thank the gods.
TW,
One of the reasons for Labor’s success last year was that when Libs brought in their Work Choices legislation, all of a sudden, a lot of previous Howard supporters arked up and became receptive to Labor. Once they were listening about one thing, they started listening about other matters and the rest, as they say is history.
I sense that the Obama campaign has a touch of the KRs (I’m right, your wrong, get stuffed). They probably need to embrace Hillary in a meaningful way since she has the keys to the demographic they need to be talking with in order to win.
That would be a start.
GG [Who is he convincing?]
– 72% of the voting population to start with – those who are not happy with the US’s direction, and I suggest more to follow as the campaign proceeds, as McCain is continually covered in Bushwash.
It’s worth considering that, depending on how heavily Puerto Rico turns out and Hillary’s margin there, Hillary may well end up with the overall lead in popular vote, however counted.
And then how does the Democratic Party allow a candidate to win the popular vote but not the nomination? Rember Al “I-won-but-they-screwed-me” Gore?
A really handy tool to forecast popular vote is here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html
Yo ho ho #143
“Just thinking out loud i guess.”
Don’t , your maths are so bad , Pancho has probably gulped on his lattee
GG
#138
“the most delusional, pie-in-the-sky liberals.”
Ron: they are here GG ! , the ‘butterfly doves” , anti US , anti the Western Countries military shield without which their intellegentia precious-soaked Ivory Towers would be a dustbin , never realising its wise threat of or use of that military power protects these FL looneys simply as a coincidence of protecting the majority the sensible peoples & notwithstanding dumb POTUS’s like Bush.
of course , Obama they dream will dismantle this eyesaw & make loving oratorial sermon to the rulers of Syria , Iran & the like as they think the yanks have replaced one dumb POTUS with worse actor than Reagan who wa serious.
of course this obama foreign affairs manifesto you notice mentions zero of forcing Burma’s hand on 2 million starving nor the famines of Ruwanda or Darfur ,
oh I forgot , they are not important to the Obama big picture message
Ron-
what?
MB, Hillary has used the electabilty and popular vote arguments all year and guess what, she’s lost the delegate count. She can bang on about it all she likes, the SDs are breaking Obama’s way, and after tomorrow she will need 80% of remaining delegates. Aint going to happen.
How does the Democrat Party deal with it: simple, its the delegate count that secure the nomination as it has always been. You cant change the rules because you dont know the outcome. Comparing this to Gore is ridiculous
sorry I meant dont like the outcome
Poor Gruffy, he can’t tell the difference between hurling abuse and actually having an argument based on facts.
Obama HAS made a better argument, as have the bloggers here, but you insist that he hasn’t.
You are really trying to be a mini-Ron, aren’t you.
So don’t come the raw prawn with this crap Gruffy, you got slapped yesterday for being a dipstick and you’re at the same old rubbish again today.
VERY slow learner.
Jen, if you refuse to take my advice and dont read or reply to Ron, fair enough. Could you spare us the incredulity though, it’s getting a bit tiresome
Ron
Appreciate the constructive criticism. Glad you were nice enough to point out the flaws rather than just dismiss like an obamabot.
Andrew- sorry. Just a slip up. I will try and control myself in future.
JV,
This “heading in the right direction” question was a crock when Morgan used it here and I am not convinced it is any more valid in the US context. I can only refer you to polls like Vote Master that show McCain in front of Obama in a head to head.
Re the huge crowds, I can only refer you to recent elections in Australia like Hewson in 93 and Gough in 1975. Crowds were huge and energised and excited, but the ones that didn’t turn up, voted them out. Perhaps large mobs of screaming people scare the horses.
GG 167
The biggest crowd Obama has had was in Pennsylvania (100,000 +), about three days before Hillary thumped him by 10%!
Sigh what is wrong with Geraldine Ferraro.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/us/politics/19women.html?partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all
Ms. Ferraro, who clashed with the Obama campaign about whether she made a racially offensive remark, said she might not either. “I think Obama was terribly sexist,” she said.
True Diogs, but she was meant to thump him by 20%.
Dio
i don’t think you realise how good a -10 point result was for Obama in Penn. The state is tailor made to prefer Hillary as a Dem candidate and it was right in the middle of the Wright boogaloo scare.
He closed a 20 point margin to 10.
I am not surprised at all that Pennsylvania (with Ed Rendall helping enormously) preferred Clinton to Obama.
That doesn’t mean that they will prefer McCain to Obama though.
Obama is already polling a comfortable victory there.
In a big boost to Obama’s economic credibility Warren Buffet endorses him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080519/ts_alt_afp/germanyusinvestpoliticsbuffett_080519163709;_ylt=AoMZ0By0QIhdx_88YO8En7Fh24cA
GG @ 167 [his “heading in the right direction” question was a crock]
Fair enough -try these more direct poll questions about Iraq then. It doesn’t seem to matter which pollster asks the question or how it is framed, the proportions ar about the same as the ‘right direction’ question. Stilll cuts around 65-70/30-35 against the Repugs.
http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm
As to the current general election polls, don’t worry, all will be well once the Dems nomination is official, and certainly by November the electoral college votes will be sewn up. McCain simply can’t escape the Bushwash.
Crowds often mean little, agreed, but the Oregan crowd was about 50% up on the number Kerry got, so it’s at least an indicator of the enthusiasm levels Obama is generating.
What is it with you people? I was just pointing out the GG’s comment was true. A big crowd does not mean you will win the state. Nothing more, nothing less. I’m beginning to understand how GG, Finns and Ron feel.
oops wasn’t finished lol
Geraldine Ferraro is the face of the ugly side of feminism. She is supporting Hillary Clinton because she is woman. Despite the fact older white women are practically the largest voting bloc if not nationally then within the democratic party. Despite this she shows the extent of her hypocrisy by saying Obama is lucky to be black despite this logic applying better to Hillary than Obama.
As another article i read suggested Obama did well because he framed himself as post racial Hillary did no present herelf as post gender. I put that Ferraro is the sexist and the irony of being called racist didn’t make her realise that is what she does to people when she calls them sexist.
Scotty @ 170,
Slap her down. A politician that tells the truth. Can’t have none of that, eh!
Diogenes-
you seem a tad defensive. I was simply pointing out that while you are right (and i know what you are saying is true), that his support is increasing even in Hillary’s safe seats, and the crowds he is attracting does seem to indicate this.
The Democratic Party have a dismal history of voting with the heart and not considering if the nominee can win. A history of nominating left-wing candidates, candidates that the Party faithful loves but the electorate can’t stomach. They then get flogged in the general.
Think Dukakis (goodness, was that ten whole states you took in the general?) Mondale (oops, only one state!) and McGovern (kept to one state by NIXON!)
Interestingly, for the last forty years, it’s only the centerists that the party has nominated – Clinton and “peanut-farmer” Carter – that have managed a win.
Oh well. The world will have to suffer McSame for four years. Hillary 2012!
JV,
1. But how important is Iraq in the overall context of the election? Is it a cut through issue, or something that people have a strong view but not a vote decider?
2. Gunner polls “hmm”. Margin of error high I hear.
3. Negatives = Positives. Positives = negatives. The answer is a pineapple at this time.
179
MB
Tell ya what MB, if Obama only wins 1 state in November, I’ll eat America, the whole damn lot of it! LOL
Seasoned US election watchers have said it over and over, there’s no use reading polls in May.
But what is in evidence is a resounding turnout for Dems, three safe house seats lost, and a startling candidate that’s bringing them out and raising money for full-on run in November.
And all this against a candidate who is not even considered a Republican by some of the 3G crowd (god/gays/guns)!
Just calmly watch, while the game ratchets up into serious play mode.
Sorry folks, it’s whinge time:
1. Since when did a thread about Clinton vs Obama on an electoral website, become about whether the USA should ensure enduring peace in the Middle East by starting another major war there (gee, the last one went so well…)? Neither candidate is advocating bombing Iran. (In case anyone pulls me up, HRC’s “obliterate” response was to the question “What would you do if Iran launched a nuclear attack on Israel?”) So shouldn’t the debate go off to shouldwebombiran.blogspot.com, or somewhere it might be vaguely relevant?
2. All of the debatin’ about electoral-vote.com vs someone else’s site, is irrelevant. Sorry to shout: IRRELEVANT. You are talking about figures from May 2008, or earlier. The election is in November. Newsflash: 4 months ago, HRC was leading Obama by almost exactly 2-to-1 as preferred Democratic candidate. The figures are relevant to talk about general trends, identify the true battleground states, discuss how McC and O are each planning to get to 270, look states that Obama is gunning to win where HRC would have struggled and those where he’s weaker than her, but to argue ‘this site gives him only 239 electoral votes, so he’ll lose’; ‘no, this site gives him 271, so he’ll win’, 6 months before the darn election, is just stoopid. And anyone who has sleptwalked through a single campaign in their whole lives should know it. Give me some polling from September 2008, and there’ll be something worth debating about.
William may have stopped caring, but I can’t stop.
MB,
“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.
179
MB
that’s ‘lost by the Republicans’ by the way.
What we need to note is that the last 8 years have seen the US move so far to the right that even many Republicans (real conservatives) are shocked.
There has not been anything this extreme in 40 years, so you would have to expect that those 80% who think the country is going down the toilet would largely want to head in the opposite direction to some degree.
Or in other words, if a northern liberal can’t win this one, then it’s never going to happen. I think you could argue that this election is really being held under some very different circumstances: recession, inflation, Iraq, corrupt Republicans and the nutbag Neocons still punching the same buttons. Oh, and Rovian politics is utterly discredited.
Democrats have an inspiring candidate, a well funded machine, and lots of favourable polls.
Calm.
Keep the faith! LOL
182
SimonH
181
“Seasoned US election watchers have said it over and over, there’s no use reading polls in May.”
SNAP!
Beatcha!
Hmm, those who keep doing the same thing and getting the same result are very slow learners.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes, as we all know. Assuming that this election is like all the others is not using history or the evidence, it’s just a silly argument for nothing ever changing.
SimonHAggrieved,
See you in September.
A very wise man once said,
“You have an astounding lack of self-awareness sometimes, KR.”
188
Greensborough Growler
And I said I don’t suffer nongs, and you prove my case.
I would have thought William’s comment an appropriate slap down.
We still haven’t heard your “gay baiting” defence.
So, it looks like you caught some of that “cognitive dissonance” thingo. In your case, it has turned your brain to black pudding and crap is oozing from your mouth.
Poor little red prick.
Gruffy, I have no idea what you’re talking about, which wouldn’t be the first time.
As for your insults, like I said, you are a complete nong.
THE END
GG 2 180
1. Iraq – One of the main reasons the Repugs are so on the nose nationally.
2. early polls – There cannot be any direct, unfiltered nominee v nominee polling yet – so a little speculation as to what this polling will show is justifiable until then. Do you predict an increase in Obama’s vote against McCain once Barry is the Dem nominee, or not?
3. ? …
It’s certainly not only the Iraq issue damaging the Repugs – For example:
Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008
“Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?”
Answers: 71% – Yes; 24% – No
(Including a majority ‘Yes’ among Repug voters)
As to the parties themselves:
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. May 8-11, 2008.
“Overall, which party — the Democrats or the Republicans — do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?” [Options rotated]
Democrats -53 Republicans – 32
I think there’s a bit of support there to my contention that the Dems support will rise once Obama is confirmed.
MB @ 159: I couldn’t plug any figures in for Puerto Rico, not even 2 million voters on a HRC margin of 25%, that would give HRC “the overall lead in popular vote, however counted”. The fact is that there are 15 different ways of counting the ‘popular vote’ on that calculator. So if anyone isn’t ahead in all 15 of them come 3 June (and there’s only one person who can be), then any claim to be the voters’ choice will be so riddled with asterisks and footnotes as to lose most of its persuasive force. There is a problem with the data in the calculator, anyways: it reduces Obama’s lead by 50,000 if you ‘Use WA Primary’, but in fact he won the state’s Primary by 40,000.
In addition, 3 of the 15 methods listed involve giving an anti-democratic windfall to HRC in Michigan. To argue that full legal force should be given to a plebiscite that was known to have no force at the time it was held, where the candidate’s opponent wasn’t even on the ballot resulting in an inevitable almost-100% victory, is an absurd parody of ‘democracy’ worthy of Mugabe at his worst. How anyone purporting to advocate a democratic counting of votes could plump for it, is beyond me.
Al Gore’s argument was never that he had won the national popular vote so the election should have been awarded to him. He always knew the game he was playing, and the game was electoral college votes. The structural weaknesses of the US Presidential election system that make it ripe for reform, was/is an issue for a different forum. His argument was that on a proper count, he (would have) won Florida, giving him the majority of EC votes.
Similarly, HRC and O have always played the game knowing that the game was delegates. If you lose that, you lose the game; and everything else is just accumulating statistics. Like if you’re one point behind at the final siren, to say ‘we had more disposals, more inside 50s, more tackles, better efficiency of ball use, plus we had some injuries and the umpiring went against us, and so you might be pretending to enjoy a narrow technical victory but the fact is you were outplayed’ sounds like exactly what it is: irrelevant sour grapes.
The statistics are only not irrelevant so far as you can use them to persuade superdelegates, but the number of SDs who will decide only on (a certain calculation of) the national vote count, will be slim indeed. The Pelosi Club, on my understanding, is promising to follow the pledged delegate winner.
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re fucked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re fucked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
Let’s face it JV- if the Democrats can’t pull this off , no matter who the candidate is, with the economy in recession, the war, global warmimng and a complete moron as POTUS, then they deserve to lose.
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re f**ked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
When abuse is sophisticated, humorous or otherwise imaginative, it can be quite tasty. Fact. But when it’s poorly prepared and dished up cold without a hint of spice or flavour, it’s just plain dull and forgettable.
William @ 25:
*You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.*
Sorry, neither do I, so my reading and contributions are ceasing, temporarily I hope.
I can go down to the local primary school for nothing if I want to watch squabbling.
JV,
Sorry if 3 was obscure. My point was that sometimes a strenghth can be a weakness in some eyes e.g. huge crowds indicating support and momentum on the one hand versus alarm that mobs are taking over the streets. And vice versa.e.g. Rudd was a wimp to the Lib supporters versus his stud muffin status with women.
I am sure you are convinced about the merits of your hopes for the campaign.
I always contend that predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future.
Ooooh, David Brooks said a rude word!
Anyway, this idea that this is the end of Reaganism, of star wars, of pre-emptive wars, of expanding to the ends of the universe militarism is just beginning to sink in! LOL
They are, in the word of Brooks: f**ked!
So much for history repeating itself. It doesn’t. And this year will draw to a close so much balloney that’s been peddled for a couple of decades: into the bin it goes.
The Idiot Decider has proven one thing: that Reaganism and neoconservative philosophy is utterly bankrupt, and they should know, they’ve tried it out on their country for the last 8 years, and it’s almost bankrupt too.
The argument re Iran is an interesting one. The thing is, voters generally do not vote on logical grounds, so the logic of either argument is in fact pretty irrelevant to the politics. To declare my bias, I am in the ‘The Iranian leadership is irrational and thus Iran cannot be allowed to develop the nuclear bomb’ camp.
On the politics, McCain appeals to the fears of a substantial block of voters who might vote Democrat on other grounds (the economy, for example). Personally, I do not think that foreign affairs issues such as this will feed much into the November vote, but any advantage – however tiny – that comes with this issue belongs to McCain.
202
David Gould
After a concerted lie and fear mongering about WMD, I’d suspect a lot of people won’t be buying their foreign policy from Republicans for quite a while.
Look at N Korea, supposedly has a bomb. Pakistan (a stable place? Military that backs the Taliban?). Has the world descended into chaos?
As for the Iranian regime, I’d contend from watching them over the last five years, that they are a damn sight more rational than GWBush! But that’s a long argument.
In the end, if Iran wants to play the game, then they will need to negotiate some rules, and that’s what will happen. In the meantime, getting all bellicose with them simply plays into their hands, because a VERY large segment of the Iranain population would dearly love to be rid of the mullahs, but when the US is shaking a fist at the country, it only helps to keep them in power.
It’s a much more subtle game that anything Macca has tallked about, and he’s just pandering to the ‘bomb ‘em’ brigade.
Hardly the thinking side, is it?
Just when you thought it was safe to go back on the blog…….
HE’s BACK…..and HE’s SPEWING , .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgtsai2aKY
Check out all the white kiddies in the front row, Ronaldo, they’re all Obama voters now!
Kirribilli Removals,
Again, people tend not to rationally weigh up such arguments. While many people will not be believing Republican foreign policy arguments any more, key demographics will certainly respond to fear of Iran. Whether that fear overcomes other factors – such as the economy – it is my contention that the issue is a winner for McCain. It will not make more people vote Democrat. It might – might – make more people vote Republican.
Jen @ 194 & KR [end of an era]
Either the Dems will deserve to lose – if they stuff up from here – or it will be proof that US voters will only vote Repug – either the GOP itself or when the Dems adopt the persona of the GOP.
At least Obama represents a potential change to the filthy quagmire of US reactionary conservatism. I can’t see the stage better set in decades for a vote for change. Obama will do his best to lead towards that. If somehow he fails, then it will be a pity, because the Repugs simply are worthless.
GG – [alarm that mobs are taking over the streets.]
Hahahaha. Did you see the photos of the Oregon crowd? That was a ‘mob taking over the streets’????
Come on.
They were so calm I don’t know how Obama got them excited enough to leave home. Compared even to the Sydney anti-Iraq war rally, it was a passive mass of sychronised observers on Mogadon.
I would also suggest that anyone suggesting that those inside Iran have a chance of getting rid of the mullahs within the next decade or so is dreaming. My girlfriend has many Iranian friends – mainly Ba’hai – and the situation inside Iran is not good for opponents of the regime. The only way that they can overthrow the mullahs is with violence, and without outside support that woud fail as things currently stand.
204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!
207
David Gould
It’s more fractious than ever in Iran today DG. These mad mullah regimes can’t rule a country in the 21st century and repress them like feudal times so easily. I’d argue that there’d be an even bigger pro-Western feeling if the US hadn’t camped (uninvited) right next door.
There might be a big pro-Western feeling. However, there is no viable pathway from that feeling to overthrowing the mullahs.
A thoughtful article by a Clinton critic on why she keeps going:
“In the end, no one begrudges a bitter-ender. Robert E. Lee is not vilified because he fought on too long, wasting lives and all of it, mind you, in the cause of slavery. In Israel, Masada is venerated because the zealots held out and killed themselves rather than surrender. Thermopylae is not considered a defeat but a lesson to us all: Never give up!
This is precisely what Hillary Clinton is doing. She is staying in the race because losing comes soon enough anyway and life teaches that anything can happen. Sure, she’s hurting the Democratic Party a bit and, sure, she’s inflicting some damage on Barack Obama. He will not only hear echoes of Clinton’s attacks out of the mouth of John McCain, but on the Internet and elsewhere they will be recycled so that Clinton herself will be the attacker. Nothing dies on YouTube.
But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_becomes_her_own_woman.html
Yeah good one, its not her stubborness, sense of entitlement or inability to accept the voters verdict. Great re-frame, good luck with that
All of the indicators are that the Repubs are on the nose, the current President dipped below 40% approval over a year ago and has just continued down to around 30% since then, the economy is in strife, the 2008 House and Senate elections could be a repeat of 2006 only worse for the GOP; and there’s every chance that the Dems’ campaign funds will be flush and the Repubs’ relatively skint.
So why are the current head-to-heads fiendishly close (by states; small but significant Dem lead in the national vote), and the bookies are calling it just roughly 60:40 to O at the moment?
It’s not because Obama is (on our current evidence) a bad or unelectable candidate. It’s because:
a) in an ‘outsider’ Repub who doesn’t always toe the party line, the GOP has the right candidate for the times; the question-mark is whether he can attract significant numbers of moderates and independents, while still dragging the fundamentalists out in the same force as they came out for Reagan and GWB.
b) the Repubs for a long time have done better in Presidential elections than they have in national representative elections. I’ll leave others to conclude why.
While HRC-supporters can point to states like Florida and Ohio (as red states to potentially pull over the line) to say ’she would have been more electable’, the fact is that on the current evidence HRC v McCain would also have been close. It would not have been a walkover. I wasn’t alive, and whether blacks should have equal rights was a divisive political issue, the last time the Dems had a genuine Presidential landslide victory.
Ferny 209
There’s no way she will run again in four years. If Obama loses the unloseable election there is going to be an awful lot of finger-pointing at Hillary (and Obama and in fact anyone involved in this debacle). Her best shot is to start grooming Chelsea in dodging sniper fire.
SimonH at 193, a good summary of the perils of the popular vote. Even if Hillary the work out some half-baked formula by she can win it, it’s a moot point. The number of delegates that counts (same reason to reject Gore’s popular vote argument), and if the SDs have NOT been swayed by Hillary’s popular vote or electability arguments.
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
Diogenes,
Must completely disagree. If Obama is the candidate and the Dems lose, then all the finger pointing will be at Obama, Dean and the Party Grandees that allowed another unsuitable candidate to lose the unloseable election.
Like Howard after being dumped as leader emerging as the only viable leader after all the second raters had their turn, Hillary would emerge triumphant. The reason being that the Dems would (hopefully, finally) put their personal hatreds aside and focus on winning. But, it is the Democratic party.
David Gould @ 200 and 203: Completely agree with you on both points, or at least what I think are both your points:
1. Foreign policy is an area where voters will favour Repubs. Will hopefully be thus for a long time– I say ‘hopefully’ b/c I believe that the only way the US voters will favour the Dems on this issue is if a GOP President blows up half the world. Obama may be able to minimise the gap, but there is nothing he can do between now and November to change the fact.
2. However, Iraq has significantly neutered the electoral advantage that McC might expect from this issue. And Presidential elections generally aren’t decided on foreign policy issues at the best of times. The number of votes that McC will gain from his foreign policy platform (from people who weren’t rusted-on GOP voters anyway) will be minimal (if the issue is played properly), and highly unlikely to be enough to sway the result his way.
The tactical lesson? Apart from putting his policies up on his website, and defending them against anyone who attacks them, Obama shouldn’t make foreign policy a campaign issue. Keep the fight on your turf. It’s the economy, stupid. Sure, Iraq is on the nose, and you’re against Iraq, but once you emphasise the details of ‘exactly what are you going to do in Iraq if elected?’, you’re playing the enemy’s game.
JWH gave tens of millions of our dollars to the starving advertising industry and TV networks (WorkChoices advertising), in order to do what? Bring the fight more and more to where the enemy was strongest? Man, for a guy revered as the greatest street-fightin’ politician of a generation, that was a novice’s mistake. Let’s hope Obama is well-advised enough not to make the same one.
I gotta agree with GG on finger pointing.
If Obama loses, it will be on Obama and Dean.
I think Clinton will be seen as the wise old-timer saying ‘i told you so!’
A question for those who think she’s a-comin’ around again in 2012 if McC wins:
Would she have spent so much of her own money, and for that matter so much of her political capital, in this campaign if she believed she could say ‘ah well, put that one down to experience; see you in 4 years’? Everything she’s done since late March indicates that she views this as her one shot.
Presidential primaries are not really like JWH in 1995. No-one ever sits back and has party elders gather round humbly and opine, ‘We were wrong to ever abandon you; only you can lead us from the wilderness, oh great one (oh, and there’s no-one else left)’. You have to aggressively push yourself forward as the candidate in a field that is always crowded. And I doubt whether come 2012 HRC will be in a position to credibly do so.
“204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!”
That’s true, KR. Comes with the commentary……..of our little mate.
However he seems to be making an effort. In his first post for days, he managed full stops at the end of each paragraph, save his last. But regarding his comma spacing idiosyncracy, I’m afraid he’s too far gone. Of course as mature adults we are tolerant of this, but as a regular proof reader of the writing of others, one simply can’t immunise oneself from these minor literary speed-bumps.
*sigh*
Grinch – I agree with you. If the Dems lose this the blame will be levelled at Obama and Hillary will be seen as the dudded candidtae who would have won. However, let’s hope (well some of us anyway) that this isn’t the outcome, and Obama gives the GOP the trouncing they have earned.
And just in case the ‘popular vote’ argument fails, Hillary has a back-up formula:
“Speaking at a high school in Maysville, KY, Clinton supported that argument saying, “the states that I have won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be the nominee right now. We have different rules so what we’ve got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes. Now we both have some states that are going to be hard for us to win in the fall like Texas and Oklahoma. But I still have a cushion if you look at all the states that I’ve won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall. My opponent has 217 electoral votes including places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska. And many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states which have a relatively low turnout.” ”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-this-is.html
If only the Dems were bloody Republicans Hillary would be the nominee by now!
218 GG
I agree that Obama and his selection would receive most of the flak but a lot of the party’s heavyweights have gone with him. That means they also own the decision and they’re going to be looking for someone to blame (other than themselves obviously and they can’t blame their candidate as they chose him).
There’s going to be an awful lot of cognitive dissonance if they lose.
1. I’m a full-time expert politician who is always right.
2. My party lost to a flip-flopping moron from a party that, in its own words “would be taken off the shelf if it was dog food”.
“Mistakes were made, but not by me” is the epithet of people in that situation. I reckon they’ll blame Hillary. Hopefully, we will never find out.
Heres the “new wedge” – drag in the wife & run it up the flag pole –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmWEaqxkGtU&eurl=http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23728386-601,00.html
Opec’s president on Monday warned oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help.
The comments made by Chakib Khelil, Algeria’s energy minister, came as oil prices hit a historic peak close to $120 a barrel, putting further pressure on global economies.
Opec says oil could hit $200
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4200dc9e-1521-11dd-996c-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Don’t forget – Hillary will be 64 in ‘12 and 68 in ‘16 – and old women are looked on as worse than old men
Um, without wanting to sound a little weird….
Hillary doesn’t look to bad for someone who is apparently 60. If Obama loses, i can’t see age being a massive issue for her.
Especially given she would presumably be up against a man who (if alive) will be 76 at the time.
Superdelegate Roundup
Obama picks up 2 new super delegates: DNC Blake Johnson (AK); and DNC Cindy Spanyers (AK), bringing his overall advantage in delegates up to 203 while reducing the remaining superdelegate pool to 217.
Pledged Delegate Numbers
Obama: 1921
Clinton: 1718
Delegates Needed To Win
Obama: 104 (25.6% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.6% of the pool)
but Catrina, Hillary’s won the populat vote, she’s more electable, she’s won more electoral college vote states, but, but, but
sorry the cold hard figures get you every time. thanks for supplying them with such accuracy and regularity
HarryH #172
Dio
“I don’t think you realise how good a 10 point loss result was for Obama in Penn”
10% is a 10% thrashing in a key state. Remarkable analysis for a foot soldier
Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries, such as
“the endorsement of Robert Byrd, the 90-year-old veteran senator form West Virginia, days after Hillary took the state. To say Byrd is a conservative Democrat is something of an understatement: the guy was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Mind you he’s 90 and that was in 1942 – he was a Grand Cyclops apparently – and he has subsequently apologised profusely. Now he’s just your average bloke who stays at home on a weekend to do some chores and singe the lawn.” (Guy Rundle, Crikey)
DG – Iran
The Iranian weapons situations is analagous with what occurred with WMD & Iraq – its all about oil. I suggest you read Jeremy Scahill (2007) ‘Blackwater, The Rise of the World’s Most Powerful Mercenary Army’ – particularly chapter 11 which lays out the detail of the US project called Caspian Guard that involved regime change in Georgia (getting rid of Shevardnadze because he was to close to Russia); use of Blackwater personnel to build bases within Azerbaijan & Kazakhstan, and train their significantly increased arm forces (built up with US aid $). As a result the US now has bases in these countries on the borders of Iran and Russia!
All of the usual suspects, Unocal, ConcocoPhillips, Haliburton, BP are involved in the building of an oil pipeline that will skirt Russia and Iran.
“As Janes Defence Weekly reported, the U.S. presence near the Caspian allowed Washington to gain foothold in a region that is rich in oil and natural gas, and which also borders Iran. ‘Its good old US interests, it’s rather selfish’ said US Army Colonel Mike Anderson, Chief of Europe Plans & Policies Division. ‘Certainly we’ve chosen to help these two littoral states, but always underlying that is our own self interest.”
The US Govt are happy to ignore the fact that President Aliyev of Azerbaijan – won a highly suspect election to succeed his father, a former Soviet strongman. Azerbaijan human rights record is apalling, according to Human Rights Watch “Torture, police abuse and excessive use of force by security forces are widespread.” Now thanks to the Bush Administration this regime spends a billion dollars annually on its military.
All the while they rachet up the accusations against Iraq.
Diogene @ 226,
Or,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buSwRxvYPZI
Well observed, Grace. And I agree BHO is not going to lose in November unless he drops his daks during debates and brown-eyes the camera.
Don’t you mean “Iran” in your last sentence?
————–
Ferny, from your RCP link at 211:
“But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
She’s living the cliche of the American Dream, all she wants now is a decent shot at “redemption”.
Just like Ayn Rand, doesn’t matter who gets sloughed off along the way, just as long as a gal can keep on keeping on. And of course an engine’s gotta do what an engine’s gotta do.
{The Little Engine that Could, also known as The Pony Engine, is a moralistic children’s story that appeared in the United States of America. The book is used to teach children the value of optimism. Some critics would contend that the book is a metaphor for the American dream.}
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Little_Engine_That_Could
Obi ain’t no engine, he know how to git down, people.
Da man KNOW how to git down!
EC 236
Thanks I did mean Iran in my last sentence.
Don’t know if this has already been mentioned here – but sometime yesterday Barak Obama was adopted into the Crow Nation with the name “Black Eagle’.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/obama-adopted-by-native-americans/
Grace #234
“Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries”
Hillary has won the majority of white , hispanic & Asian votes representing 88% of Americans. obama has won 90%+ of his own ethnic vote plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
j/v Your polls on Iraq are irrelevant. Those Poll questions were the order of major issues , not the vote defining ones. In 2004 iraq was overwhelmingly unpopular in ‘oz’ but Howard. McCain is trusted more than either Dem on National security and any votes in foreign affairs McCain will win the most. I’m astonished anyone would suggest Iraq will be a problem for McCain unless it completely deteriorates. But Obama has a problem with how long withdrawal & what does he propose idealy to leave behind , given his absurd amateurish statement that if Al queda get back into Iraq , he’ll go in & get them out !
IRAN , numerous blogs on Iran being some sort of Bush red herring. Bush is correct to be concerned but is using the wrong policys to address it. Iran ARE enriching uranium that is a fact according to the UN AEC. why blogers here apply their dovish anti US attitudes to a scientific fact is remarkable. Whether Iran uses that quality uranium for nukes no one knows , but relying on the Mullahs good graces given their disrespect for human life with suicide bombers training only the FL dovish anti US intellegentsia are foolish enough not to advocate policys designed to prevent a nuke Iran. Ditto North Korea who have no oil. m/e oil continuity (but not Iran;s oil) is a main secondary priority but not the main game. As for Obama , what a rope a dope Philly oratory speech & the Mullahs will be sold.
Hillary has won plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
Thanks Catrina- amazing how a few lefties in this antipodean website are spreading our wings so far – even to Crow country.
WTF is going on here. Like my amigo Ron, you can’t be away for a few days. then you have bloody William Bowe raised the white flag “You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.” Why William?
1. So the bullies of PB can go on bullying.
2. So the sound of one hand clapping of the Obamabots here becomes the sound of boring, the bores and the boors.
3. So the conga line of sucking is getting longer, and longer and hardcore, exhibit: “Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers” “Kirribilli Removals at 87 Yes sir, will do!”
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
Michellegate in full blown. Dear Michelle, if you cannot stand the heat, dont effing go into the
kitchen in the first place. If you want to wear the pants and get involved in the campaign, dont go
whinging when attacked. Else, get out of the kitchen and let the real Lady handle the heat of the kitchen. As the Herr Doktor was saying, you should just shut-up.
The Irangate in full blown. Would Obama please repeat and re-state his new politics doctrine that “As POTUS, he will sit down and talk to the President of Iran, Syria, Cuba and venezuela, unconditionally”. Please show again some Profile of courage.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/6961
This is an own goal and self-inflicted. he has no-one to blame but himself. It simply shows his inexperience and lack of political judgement.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obamas_unique_appeasement_styl.html
yes, I agree with GG, and those who have agreed with GG, that if Obama loses in Nov, he will go down in history as the candidate who lost the Dems’ mandate from heaven to rule. In our despair, we will say in unison: “We told you so”.
Cheers, Grace, you might find the below link useful.
“His ( McCain’s) rhetoric about Iran—which inevitably will be a factor in any solution —has been belligerent. He calls it a “rogue state” and has spoken often of “rogue-state rollback,” deliberately invoking a word favored by the hardest-line cold warriors; he recently said he never meant by the phrase “that we should go around and declare war.” On the Middle East, he said in late April that “people should understand that I will be Hamas’s worst nightmare.”
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21470
While maudlin hagiographers claim old soldiers never die, old warmongers are not content unless they continue to churn young men and women down Moloch’s gullet.
After all, what’s an MIC unless it can turn a buck!
. http://www.shout.net/~bigred/Moloch.jpg
Finns
You and i are both avid Fox News watchers. However only one of us actually believes the crud that they dribble.
I regularly have PB open and Fox on the tv. It is remarkable how often your posts pop up with Fox talking points just after they spew them up.
Long may you run, Bazza;
Long may you soar, Black Eagle.
HarryH, got news for you. I raised Michellegate last week and Irangate about 4 days ago. So You just keep on watching Faknews, it will do you good. It will at least keep your brain in balance.
GG
The dears can not detail what Obama’s “change , yes we can means”
Looks like none of those PAC’s and lobbyists , all out of work , gone are the ‘prork barrelling’ , no more special interest group pressure on legislation , andd of course new style politic means no Pollies doing arm twisting & secret Legislative deals , no more sex scandals , no more Pollie corruption headlines , a new beltway syndrome & gone will be all old Washington style negotiations done for generations …….
all achieved by “change, yes we can”..but how and by who and specifically what ?
fantasy world indeed , especially with Obama’s threat in front of a boardroom of credible executives of a major US corporation to nuke not only Iran…but also Pakistan , better then bomb bomb and then there’s the 25 million on the public register from PAC’s & lobbyists , the people Obama says he takes no money from.
FINNS
And we got HARRYH believing Fox News now
and ANDREW,k/r’s apprentice big noter with small echo , really reads all posts for wisdom to supplement a zero base whilst denying his reads
um ok Finns lol
Fox have been prattling about Michelle and Iran being the next “Obamagates” for about a week now…..about the time pastorgate ran out of gas.
Finns, your patterns have been uncanny.
It’s ok to admit you like the Fox guys. Don’t be embarrassed.
HarryH, for your thickness.
#747 – The Finnigans Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#736 Diog – [I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though.] – dont speak too soon my friend. just wait when they turn on Michelle Obama. Boy, is she giving them the ammunitions. If Obama lost in Nov it will be because of the Pastor and his wife. How ironic, Hillary lost probably because of her husband, and Obama probably his wife.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=853&cp=8#comment-150871
Ron #239
It’s precisely because North Korea has no oil that the Bush Administration has been willing to negotiate with them.
It is a pity that they have not adopted the same approach with Iran. The rhetoric of the US, with the threats of bombing and building army bases on their borders is supporting the rhetoric of the Iranian President.
Surely, it is a better strategy to engage with Iran and avert armageddon.
As to the numbers re Obama – he has won primaries in States that are have populations comprising 88% and 67% “white” Americans, Eisenhower and Susan Nixon have endorsed him, as have Indigenous Americans and the quote I gave today about the Senator from West Virginia who is an ex KKK member. (the links are in previous blogs on this site)
250
That should read Eisenhower family
The Toy Boys at 249
Not getting too hot for you is it?
It’s possible the US voters won’t, after eight long years of Bush, be able to come to grips with someone who can string more than three coherent words together. Bit of a worry!
“Tracking Poll (gallup): Obama opens up biggest lead ever over Clinton”
Oh-oh, trios amigos, biggest lead evah!! Comin’ right atcha, tha C-word! Sho’ nuff. Can ya dig it?
Ah don’ believe ya hoid me there, amigos trios, ah sed,
CAN_ YOU_ DIG_ IT?
“Amid reports that the Democratic Party’s leaders and largest fundraisers are beginning to take steps to try to bring their party together after a long, hard-fought primary campaign, the latest Gallup daily tracking poll suggests Democratic voters are beginning to COALESCE around Sen. Barack Obama.”
Gotta love that C-word, yessuh!
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/19/tracking-poll-obama-opens-up-biggest-lead-ever-over-clinton/
222
Enemy Combatant
Ecky, you should take the log from your own eye! LOL
As Mrs Kirribilli is wont to say: the ellipsis is three full stops!
Beware, we are watching you!
So the candidate with …
1. the most pledged delegates
2. the most super delegates
3. the winner of the most primaries
4. the winner of the most caucuses
5. the best fund raising record in primary history
6. the most volunteers on the ground in primary history
7. the most states
8. the Rep. endorsements
9. the most endorsements from Senators
10. the most endorsements from state Governors
11. the most endorsements for DNC members
But on top of all of that, EC chimes in with the coupe de grace…
Who would have predicted that?
254 EC – Ah yes, there it is popping up again, the C-word. Has there ever been a more beautiful word in the English language than ‘coalescence’? It has science; it has politics; it has poetic assonance potential (e.g. with ‘around’, or ‘biggest lead ever’) … Fantastic word.
The c-word, I’ve been waiting for Kirri to introduce that into the conversation given his power packed anger levels of recent days.
“Just a few years after the Republican Party launched a highly publicized diversity effort, the GOP is heading into the 2008 election without a single minority candidate with a plausible chance of winning a campaign for the House, the Senate or governor. “
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10464.html
Hey, check out the photo, Bludgers.
Shortage of coffee coloured folk but plenty of white people all huddled together.
Musta come in a bunch!
Sho’nuff.
———————–
Yes, jv, it’s a word The Surgeon of Crowthorne would have gone ape over.
————
Fair dinkum, Eddy, I love a bit of Rabelaisian ribaldry myself, but in your never ending quest as a vulgarian ego tripper, you are a dead-set dope.
259 – The Republicans could go Bobby Jindal for VP. Get the conservatives on the side and as well as countering the minority issue.
258
Edward StJohn
“unconscionable” was William’s word for your disgraceful behaviour Eddy, would you like me to remind everyone what it was for?
You just can’t help yourself, can you?
Worth thinking about, if you’re a conservative:
Conservatives are in the same boat today, except worse. Modern movement conservatism was also fundamentally based on three things: low taxes, anti-communism, and social traditionalism. (”Small government” was never more than a fig leaf.) Today communism is gone (and Islamofascism has failed to rally the troops in the same way), taxes literally can’t be lowered any more, and sex-and-gender fundamentalism has become an albatross that’s rapidly producing a generation of young voters more repelled by conservatism than any generation since World War II. Even in the late 70s, there were plenty of traditionally liberal goals still to be fought for. Not enough to build a winning coalition around, but still something. Modern conservatives don’t even have that. The culture war is pretty much all they have left, and its clock has run out.
They won’t be willing to say this during a presidential campaign, but there are at least half a dozen smart Republican senators who understand this and don’t really want to go down with the ship. So even if Democrats don’t win a filibuster-proof majority in November — as they almost certainly won’t — it’s likely that there will still be enough survival-inspired GOP senators around to give Barack Obama the votes he needs to make a difference. If that’s the case, and if Obama has the courage of his convictions, his first two years could be historic.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
Ron
Just for the record; ‘prork barrelling’; let’s see, that be a ‘comaparatively gentile’ slush fund; or a ‘thinkskin’ circumcised currency? Just asking.
Grace those O & G pipelines; lovely mudmap of the PNAC progress…
I love it when the NYTimes talks dirty:
Senator Barack Obama is poised to reach a milestone in the presidential race on Tuesday by capturing a majority of pledged delegates, but he said he would not declare victory against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton or suggest the Democratic primary should end until the final three contests are finished on June 3.
…as the poor petal is sleep walking to Pennsylvania Avenue and should be woken very carefully.
The earthquake at Sichuan happened at 2:28pm on 12 May 2008. Precisely 88 days before the opening of Beijing Olympic at 8/8/2008 at 8:08:08pm. Magnitude of 8 on the Richter Scale. And 8 is supposed to be a lucky number in Chinese. Not a good omen for the Beijing Olympic. Sichuan means the province of 4 plains and 4 means death in Chinese.
According to China Daily:
Quake death toll rises by one to 34,074, (Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-05-20 16:44
Beijing — The death toll in China’s major earthquake increased by one to 34,074 as 12:00 pm Tuesday, according to the earthquake relief headquarters of the State Council.
And 245,963 people were injured and 32,361 missing in the 8.0-magnitude quake that jolted southwestern Sichuan Province last Monday. By Monday midnight, 360,159 people trapped during the quake had been rescued and transported to safe areas, among them 6,375 were excavated from rubble left behind by the quake.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-05/20/content_6698567.htm
BSF at 260, Bobby Jindal for GOP VP nominee at 14/1 is “in the market” and can’t be readily dismissed at this juncture. He doesn’t appear to have any “baggage” and could get the nod from GOPper HQ if they wanted to counter BHO’s “Change” theme. Be interesting to see how the move would play with core/base GOP voters.
P.S. Friends call me Enemy, BSJ, or EC will do just fine. The last time someone addressed me as a number, I was in Gitmo.
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Al8E8o4.KAhkzthhASgCxmEl6ysC
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=AnZTSJlCKb_NQNljz0QQ4K5T_b4F
Mon May 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Al4.PUtbV.U4KRhNiDipE.lW_b4F
ESJ,
You float in and out so you are hard to catch. Not telling you how to suck in an ego in or anything, but I have noticed KR’s cyber bully tendancies towards your good self.
William’s 27 might be a hearty rejoinder to KR.
Further, as far as I know, KR is the only contributor who had to pass a test to blog on PB. A bit like getting a certificate to prove your sane enough to be in an asylum really.
Is ESJ finally going to get banned?
FINNS
#242
“Justifying Obama’s fast and loose treatment of the truth about his past, his editor Deborah Baker explained that Obama’s attitude was more important than the facts ”
Now we know why the Obamabots are dispensible with facts , they follow Obama
Its like the Obama ‘yes we can’message thou shalt not explain cause they don’t know what it means but it must be a butterfly thing to say , some policy.
Yes FINNS , apparently the bullys tried our moderators patience , getting alittle pesky when put under pressure about electoral stats
enemey combatant @ 266
Maybe but i think it may complicate the GOP line of attack. I suppose that could be a good as well as a bad thing. He hasn’t been Governor all that long. And yes i do know he was a congressman before that. AS the Republicans have said about Obama he hasn’t been fully vetted. Also representing practically 100 percent of the GOP minority ethnics it would obliterate any tokenism attacks. So it surely would have a downside by making them look like big ol hypocrites.
Convention wisdom would say either South Carolina Senator or their governor.
I say the logical decision in my opinion would be Marry Jodi Rell. Popular governor of a northern state who was a lieutenant governor for a fair while. It would also attract all those silly old bats like Geraldine Feraro who will cut off their nose to spite their face. Sure there is the whole signed laws helping gay people but still.
But don’t tell McCain i dont want him to know
Ron @ 247,
Good to see you back firing on all cylinders as usual.
To me, this change, yes we can is just a new gang taking over an old patch. But, who am I to argue with the superior life experiences of those who have never done nor achieved anything.
Obama’s performance re Iran has been shameful and he basically needs to put a sock in it while some adults develop a better communications strategy.
Are he and his darling supporters on PB likely to take any notice? Not on form to date. Good for them.
Hope you are well.
Cheers.
I am absolutely fuc*ing speechless. I can’t really add any more. God, I hope it’s wrong.
US President George W. Bush intends to attack Iran in the upcoming months, before the end of his term, Army Radio quoted officials in Jerusalem as saying Tuesday.
The official claimed that a senior member of the president’s entourage said during a closed meeting that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were of the opinion that military action was called for.
‘Bush intends to attack Iran before the end of his term’
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668683139&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
M. Jodi Rell (who happens to be the Republican Governor of Conneticut) will not be the VP nominee for the GOP.
Why? Because she’s too moderate/liberal for the base. Already McCain is having problems with his base – imagine the problems he would have if he nominated a female, pro-civil union, pro-campaign finance reform, pro-tax hike Governor of a New England (and very blue) state.
No – he’s got to go for a either a conservative (to shore up the base), like Gov. Sanford of South Carolina or a more “moderate” moderate, like Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota.
Progresseive,
Seems our cuckoo has clocked in.
Please provide a case why ESJ or anyone should be banned.
j/v
#257
“a more beautiful word in the English language than ‘coalescence’? It has science; it has politics; it has poetic assonance potential”
We have now seen on the blogosphere the wonder a butterfly organic simulation
whilst site visitors shake their heads at Obamabotic foolishness. What you’ve failed too j/v not knowing what the yes we can message is
Parrot no1 Boyslesswit:
not knowing electability is the first rule of politics , another amateur
Codgy class first inductee , codger himself:
your tuesday night gibberish should have an Obama policy to tell us about ?
k/r
#262
still cutting & pasting full articles from sites & newspapers Salon , NYT etc , but without ” ” I see , have you actually anything original to say from your mind or do you think your colleagues are silly enough to really believe you write these cut & pastes
Diogenes@273
Can’t anyone stop this lunatic??
I mean Bush, just in case there’s any confusion.
Swing Lowe
She isn’t that moderate lol. But yes you probably are putting it in context. It is gonna be almost impossible for anyone to rewin the bush coalition. Though you can try. I frankly hope you are right. And for once the likes of sean hannity and rush limbaugh are helping me sleep cause i want base choice for vp. Going on the offensive would put the democrats on the back foot insted of plugging the holes that will mean Obama will be less reactive.
Catrina at 256, a beautiful set of numbers. the only thing on this page worth reading
sorry EC at 254, you too!!
With your indulgence Mr Bowe, I bumped into this whilst researching the big bad babel pond etc for some Ron clarity;
‘1 morning while making breakfast, a man walked up 2 his wife &
pinched her on the butt and said, “f u firmed this up, we could get
rid of ur control top pantyhose. while this was on the edge of
intolerable, she kept silent.
the next morning, the man woke his wife w a pinch on each of her breasts & said, “u know, f u firmed these up, we could get rid of ur bra.” this was beyond a silent response, so she rolled
over & grabbed him by his penis. w a death grip n place, she
said, “u know, f u firmed this up, we could get rid of the gardener,
the postman, the pool man, & ur brother.”
http://www.destee.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-10308.html
Swing Lowe
#274
Did you read a rumour on M. Jodi Rell ?
There is no way I would have thought McCain would consider pickig a VP from one of the ‘bluest’ POTUS States in the Union. Not quite with what you’re suggesting Scotty , there’s no pick up with the base in the NE , betterfurther South or mid west he should look
FERNY Grover
Noticed you went to the trouble of publishing polls earlieron the next two Primarys & have been waiting to see if any Obama supporter commentedon your works , alas a pity , my view on seeing them was they indicate 2 contrasting scenes between an East Coast & West Coast Primary , a win each & by a big margin. Oregon has firmed up as blue or both candidates but its poll variations from 5% to 20% for Obama gives no confidence in some pollsters.
Estimate more like 12 to 14 points
Diogenes
#273
forget the story , beatup for local Israeli consumption from a single Israeli source
Jen @ 277,
I was half way through the word umbrage.
Cheers
Diogenes @ 273
It is hard to believe even George Bush is that stupid and it is time people start to question the likes of McCain on this.
It is called the strait of hormuz people. If Iran’s defence plans were successful it could plunge the world into a global depression.
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/28/181730.shtml?s=lh
codger,
me thinks you were babelling Playboy Magazine.
Good get.
Cheers.
Ron @ 283
I’m happy for him not to. Red and blue are often described in a very 1 dimensional way. Theoretically West Virginia is one of the bluest state around. But Obama will not win it. Her 2 preceding governors were members of the republican party. Dukakis won west Virginia but not Connecticut. The likes of Lieberman is less than a moderate senator.
Codger, what possesses a person to go to a psephology website and leave a comment like #282?
GG
he is not echoing k/r like k/r’s apprentice Andrew in #280 & #281 congratulating each other , pity they cann’t read what the poll is actually saying
Scotty #285
whats the point quoting a March 2006 article on an alleged Iran plan to block the Strait if the US launced a pre emptive strike. Is this based on a single unnamed Israeli source of an alleged private comment by Bush published in an Israeli newspaper and where’s the relevance of McCain. Why not question Obama who has made the threat of a preemptive nuke strike , something Hillary NEVER did but got sanctimoniously criticised for here , whats Obama ’s policy ?
Growler- I know my opposition to Bush’s love of war is characterised as riding mymoral high horse, appeasement, and now taking umbrage.
But I actually really do think it’s wrong.
Or perhaps that’s just grandstanding on my part, as part of my naive and pathetic support for a celebrity candidate (who’s postion I happen to agree with).
Follow the link William. & ‘Obamabots are dispensible with facts’ @ 270. Just keeping up to speed and I thought it funny. Depends on your imagination I guess.
Scoty , hadn’t finished post , think its an Israeli plant for the ‘right’ Israeli supporters of the PM as his cedibility was down & lfor ocal Israeli read
Bludger the Punter said: Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be euthanised*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
Shades of 1976 and the “Great Match Race” at Belmont when the Kentucky Derby winner , “Foolish Pleasure” (male, black) was pitted against the Belmont Stakes winner “Ruffian” (filly, chestnut) and won when Ruffian broke down in the back straight. They shot her too. I was there. (It’s ‘euthanased’ actually).
Whether it’s true or not, if it’s picked up by the MSM it will become an issue in the election. And we can be thankful that Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Powell aren’t there to BS America into doing it.
“However, the official continued, “the hesitancy of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice” was preventing the administration from deciding to launch such an attack on the Islamic Republic, for the time being.”
Scotty , hadn’t finished post , think its an Israeli plant for the ‘right’ Israeli supporters of the PM as his credibility is down & for local Israeli read
No Codger, it depends on your intelligence.
I read that bit Diogenes- but if Bush wanted to do it as Commander In Chief- could anyone actually stop him?
Jen,
I pretended you were talking about me.
I have never or would never doubt your sincerity. I may disagree and be frustrated with your views, but you call it as you see. You can’t ask any more than that.
Cheers.
294
Diogenes
“for the time being” LOL
The Iraqis have slammed the US’s harping about Iran and even though the Sunni kingdoms aren’t mad keen on it, they’re backing away from yet another coalition of the imbecilic.
David Brooks is right: they’re f&cked.
Especially if this utterly discredited war talk and fear mongering is all they have left.
Obama is right on this and the majority are sick and tired of this. You can’t keep crying wolf.
Game’s up.
Thank you Grinch.
Jen 297
That’s the $3 trillion question. Congress can’t but they have to vote funds for the war so they sort of can. And the American people would have to support it. They’ll need a lot of propaganda to get it through but it’s been done done before. And McCain would win the next election if a war had just started in Iran.
Bush wouldnt have the time to even go through the whole inspections/UN charade again and he would not get Congress approval, surely
what time do we expect results from these primaries??
276
Ron
nah, Ron, I put links on it, so anyone with half a brain knows where it came from.
This clearly exludes you, so I guess that’s why you couldn’t figure it out, or are you going to just come on and abuse me with mindlessly idiotic comments too?
At least I don’t write pages of unreadable dribble and demand that others respond to it like it actually means anything.
Try it again son, and we’ll play another round of “Pin the Meaning on the Ron”, it’s lots of fun, and I don’t mind playing it.
Want to play, eh, Ron?
301
Diogenes
They’re all ‘warred out’ Dio. It’s all huff and puff until the election and everybody knows it.
Predictable though.
The winner in November will be the candidate who can position himself (assuming Obama wins) in the centre. Right now, the centre is unoccupied. Obama came from the left, urged on by the looney lefts, the Liberals, the latte set, the chaterring class and the Kumbaya flocks.
While McCain was in the centre-right but has been dragged yelling and screaming to the Right by the Bible bashers, Neocons and the equally loooooney rights.
Our Dear Leader was successful because he kept Howard to the Right, and Howard kept himself there with a little help from his NSW looney right friends.
The race is on. The question is how nimble will Obama be to get to the centre, or he is already so laden, shackled and chained by his looney left patrons that he cannot move anymore. Thus leaving McCain to simply stroll to the centre.
As much as i despise Dick Morris, but he is astute. he said this is a bizarre election where an unelectable candidate will be endorsed by an unbeatable Party and an electable candidate has been endorsed by imminently beatable Party.
The Israelis had presented Bush with what they claim is “evidence”, in the form of data, of an existential threat that Iran poses to the Jewish state. They hope that this will strongly influence the U.S. administration on Bush’s return after he promised to discuss the issue with security officials.
This had followed talks Olmert had had with Bush last year during a visit to the United States where the Israeli premier had expressed concern and disappointment over a National Intelligence Estimate’s report by U.S. intelligence which had stated that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program.
Award winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersch first disclosed details of U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley misleading reporters by stating that Bush had first been briefed on the intelligence report on Nov. 28 last year.
In fact, Bush had known about the report’s assessment at least two days earlier when he had discussed it in private with Olmert, according to Hersch.
This has led some commentators to comment that Israel and the United States are in cahoots with regard to setting the stage for a possible military strike on Iran by building an atmosphere which would justify such a strike.
Israel banging (U.S.) war drums
http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/05/20/israel_banging_us_war_drums/4975/
Finns,
Perfectly summarised.
Satire at its very, very best.
William @ 288 & 296: Yes, but what possesses a person to go to a psephology website and leave a comment like most of the last 500 or so on the Democratic primary process? An unhappy blend of primary-school-playground personal abuse and one-eyed barracking (and now, lame jokes). Generalised political debate with the remotest connection to the electoral process has been the good end of things.
A perennial problem with the internet is that freedom of speech doesn’t imply the absolute right to wee your name all over your neighbour’s front fence. I appreciate that there are resource and can’t-be-bothered limitations, but I reckon some more moderation is called for.
Young Democrats turned down $1m bribe from Clinton donor for 2 SDs to support her
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/superdelegates-turned-dow_n_102450.html
Gee if she cant buy 2 for 1 mil, she cant afford the the 300 she needs!
Angry Kirri at 261,
Here I am just little old me, give it your best shot old son!
#308, GG – we can also do one hand clapping if we want to. but we do it as with the finesse of Zen not as the way the barbarians did it.
It’s not going to happen unfortunately, SimonH. You are basically suggesting that I take on a monumental daily workload for which I will receive nothing in return except abuse. There are only two planet earth options for the US threads: let them run wild, or can them altogether.
FINNS
#306
“Obama came from the left, urged on by the looney lefts, the Liberals, the latte set, the chaterring class and the Kumbaya flocks”.
Ron ,good post, the above is a perfect description of most of his supporters here
How is Obama going to move to the centre , left elitist p…of f OH , foolish m/e statements p…off FL , has no economic expertise , weak on national security , his support is the hip hop college set so he can not move too centre or risk losing these dreamers , and a race message hat may scare middle America ?
SimonH
#309
“more moderation is called for”
If there was you wouldn’t be here at all , the first criteria is working knowledge of the US electoral system which you lack but you have abundance of gall making snotty elitist remarks but cann’t handle a retort (made only in 4th gear)
k/r
#304
By all means keep cutting & pasting articles all day from NYT , Salon etc on finance etc but without ” ” as if you did , but everyone knows including your colleagues you do not write any of it , so why not post just the link , then all your posts would be one liners
Finns,
I actually prefer bungee origami. You will never be scared of paper cuts again.
Ron @ 289
It doesn’t matter about who said what. Most experts agree that Iran would try and cut of the strait of Hormuz. It is only 21 miles long and 30 percent of the world’s oil passes by there. The point im sure that the article adds is that iran could probably attack with its long range missiles oil instillations in Saudi Arabia Yemen ect that do not increasing the percentage of the world oil even further. The point of the article was to show how well iran has planned for this.
You do not need to be a rocket scientist or hopefully even George bush to realise the price of oil would go so High Malcomb Turnbull could not even afford it. Iran would use its speedboats tactics like used on the uss cole to damage not just American warships but any significant trading ships. Even after Iran’s conventional fleet would be destroyed these attacks could continue for a significant time. in the fragile condition world markets in the further crushing of confidence would not be very welcome. Remembering of course that Abu Dhabi was one of those white knights for example during the worst credit crisis softening the blow.
How can the only 2 daily tracking polls be so different on the same day at this stage of the race?
Dem Nom race:
Gallup +16 Obama 55-39 94% designated
Rassmussen +2 Obama 46-44 90% designated
Diogs
‘And McCain would win the next election if a war had just started in Iran.’
They’ve done it for less.
William: fair enough. If the public urinators can’t control themselves, I guess we all know where this is heading, then. (Even if it doesn’t get out-and-out canned, the same 5 or 6 adolescents who should just get themselves a locked room to slug it out, will make it unbearable for regular people who come here expecting to read some reasoned discussion vaguely connected with the site’s raison d’etre, and they will just drift away, making the problem progressively worse.)
A great shame because when it’s halfway decent there’s nothing to compare to this site for an Australian perspective on the US elections.
SimonH,
The Tear up reminds me of arseanque. Do you correspond?
SimonH
fair comment.
As an occasional piddler myself I will try and rise above the fray.
I love the political and often entertaining take on this election, but I am also tired of the constantly repetitive personal abuse, which at times I have got caught up in.
Will try and do better.
jen, your piddling is ok with me. it’s the horsy love, horsy
damn those values of mine, Finns.
Just can’t seem to shake them.
And Diogene’s latest offering is chilling.
A warning in advance: come what may, the US election threads will get canned if a WA election is called, which is likely to happen around the time things get interesting/out of hand.
William- no chance of running both until November?
Scotty
#317
you are right the article makes this clear. I was merely assuming US intell would have assumed already the Straight were on Iran’s radar to attack anyway & was thinking the article’s publication may have been designed to create the starting circumstances for the US further pressuring Iran , or worse rather than the US finding out much more than they’d predicted.
As you say the damage Iran can inflict is terrifying with their existing weaponary , which was the substance of ny earlier post re the further instability & risk posed should Iran proceed with its existing enrichment into nuke grade development for which US Intell can not verify either way (except that the UN AEC have voiced significant concern). And the Israeli Intell is hard to guage as to its purpose sometimes. That being the case I haven’t heard Obama articulate a coherrent policy in this Iran nuke area , except an earlier threat to nuke them if he believed they (not having made a preemptive strike) may threaten others with nukes
any thoughts ?
Appeasement i guess. The same way JFk appeased Cuba i guess during the Cuban missile crisis. Foolish liberal could have let Castro get Nuclear weapons. Bombing them to prevent Cuba gaining them would have been a less extremist policy.
Jen, by all accounts the WA election is likely to be in October, so I’ll possibly run them again when it’s over. I will also do live US coverage on the day itself, regardless of what else happens.
jen, you dont shake the horsey, you jump off them, like this, see kid stuff
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_03/giantHorseG2707_468×314.jpg
Thanks William- It would be a shame to have got so far and not see the outcome among friends – and others.
Jen,
Yeah, like an Agatie Christie murder mystery with the last page torn out.
Talking about Appeasement. Who is courting who now. Obama needs Hillary more than Hillary needs Obama. He has more to lose, and if he lost it, he will be condemned forever.
Hillary Clinton’s Defeat: A Historic Triumph by Arianna Huffington.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/hillary-clintons-defeat-a_b_102418.html
Scotty
#329
the choices are never easy are they in this area. JFK has the advantage that Cuba was the client & he was dealing with Russia & could offer the obsolete Turkey disarmanent6 months later. The Obama way would be appeasement (& he seems to lack ticker as well) & guarantee a nuke Iran , IF Iran so chose to enrich & develop in that direction. Would have thought a strong carrot & engaement & stick approach is worth a try which Bush hasn’t tried.
Huffington has to say that…it’s all about the COALESCING.
Hillary will be remembered for a lot of things. One of them will be a fighter.
More memories will be negative than positive though.
FINNS
#334
Huffington Post have been strident pro obama all the way with its Owner having long standing bitter disputes with Hillary , so much for any semblance of her journo integrity. Now with obama’s numbers looking better , time for a little ‘revisionist’ history , suppose it’ll fool some of her readers.
Are we ever going to find out what this “change to , yes we can” is , seeing ots Obama’s central policy ? 9or can we assume its air)
Ron at 337
When you try to do a ‘(’ character you need to press the shift-key down first.
Stop with the jokes Catrina just give us da #’s. Sweetie!
codger at 339
Yes sir! Will do!
So tell us, Delphic Oracle of the SuperD’s, how’s it lookin’ for the kid to take the magic number,er, the one before Hillary decided she was losing and wanted it changed, that is?
GG
#321
just saw the quip , touche , the sanctimonious snob with a ‘H’ thought he could dictate rules here despite his own sledging & not expect return fire , like all intellegentsia gentry elitists cut mustard here with the 3 Amigos.
Codgy , your #339 , you realise the FINNS picked Obama up on that ’sweetie” slap down to a worker , and now you’re referring to my P number 2 in the same disparaging way. Then in your #340 you are answering your own #339 post. k/r was formerly the only one who ever regularly did that
Did you get that joke Ron?
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=AqWUwXtVK86LcokyKOUPdIjd.sgF
Sea Wolf attacked by almost extinct beast defending its domain as once again, homo “sapiens” demonstrates superiority over all creatures great and small.
http://aphrabehn.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/bear_sub2.jpg
Mon May 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=A0WTUcWozDJIdegArA8DwLAF
Ecky, this is for you. It’s humourously written, but the message is anything but.
Note that it’s in a very mainstream (ie usually bullish) market site:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D&dist=MostReadHome
KR at 341
Well – today (over there) is going to be an interesting day. Sometime in the next few hours the Black Eagle will pick up the endorsement of Iowa Chair Scott Brennan. In the meantime Miss Duracell will be watching the popular vote numbers just to see if she can cling to her preferred position of the popular vote using creationist mathematics arguments. But her biggest problem here is if she drop behind on even this abstract measure and if that happens, one could argue that its a bitter rebuttal coming back to bite.
As things stand (with Edwards delegates in the super pool and the Pelosi factor ever present) the kid leads bunny by 203 delegates.
Obama: 1921 (104 to win)
Clinton: 1718 (307 to win)
But the pain kicks in as the Kentucky and Oregon results come in as these represent a drain on the remaining pool.
Stay tuned and I’ll bring in the numbers as it filters up.
346
Catrina
A divine Oracle, thanks.
Funny, but if a kid starts saying I should have won that game, except I made the wrong move back there, can I change it now, us adults usually say things like: no, you made it, you own it, and you can’t just change things after the event to suit yourself. There are rules in life.
You know, grown up stuff.
How come someone who says she wants to be POTUS doesn’t understand such basic things? LOL
It really isn’t a good look, is it?
FINNS & GG
Look like I have to leave some psephological homework for the fringe set that’s left here .So we’ve got HarryH , my pet P number 2/ , codgy & my mate still looking for relevance.
There are four (4) fundamental themes Obama has put which have attracted Obama supporters firm commitment.Your challenge is to demonstrate in detail to your fellow Obama colleagues you understand them (rather than your support being shallow)
The hint of what they are ; the first is soapy , the second is an undefined losing footy coachs ½ time plea , the third is Obama self damaged and the last whilst implied doesn’t even exist. Over to you to show your intellectual prowess & I don’t expect my P number 2 to do all the homework
KR at 347
Hillary girls are getting all upset about remarks from Obama suggesting that she ‘the same old same old’ – and yet by her very actions she is demonstrating in her every waking moment that bending rules and broadcasting misleadings information are part of the course. She may be a woman, she may be a mother, but she’s missing out on that ingredient sometimes referred to in dark corners as personal integrity. As you said, it’s not a good look.
EC
‘rono’ “sapiens” demonstrates superiority over all creatures great and small.’
I would have thought, but there you go. Apologies Simon. ‘my P number 2′.
No less!
BTW KR up to chapter 2…amazing…’Colours Iv’e Known’ & The #’s Counted’ working title…any suggestions?
‘There’s enough Kool-Aid for everyone to drink’ Are you sure? lol
Now this is nicely put:
“In truth, May horse-race polls have the predictive powers of a 7-year-old dressed up as a swami and using an upside down goldfish bowl to peer into the future. In the last five presidential elections, the Gallup Poll conducted right before Memorial Day got the eventual winner of the national popular vote wrong.”
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/17/electoral_map/
(I’d like to emphasise that I did not write those words; they were from an article written by another person. I have attached a link to the article for those who would like to read the whole thing. Just click on the funny-looking series of characters above! I have not cut and pasted the entirety of the article into this post, but just the most pertinent sentences.)
Maybe Obama should be fixing to be behind in the polls now, after all?
350
codger
You can always drink your own bathwater if the Kool Aid runs out! LOL
I just love it when the dapper and very proper David Brooks tells it so bluntly in the vernacular: they’re f*cked! LOL
Codge, it makes my heart sing!
roflmao, your ronship. strangely, i don’t feel there is any point in trying to persuade you of anything. call me shallow, say i lack prowess, but never doubt i too am a sanctimonious, latte-sipping, sleazy-dealing intellectual, politically-correct snob.
Yeah, Kirri, prescient article.
“Phillips warned us that “most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out.”
Just as well that sort of thing didn’t happen to the Roman Empire.
See you tomorrow, Bludgers.
Good night EC!
351
SimonH
You’ll get a torrent of ‘elitist latte lapping, butterfly flapping and small doggy yapping’ abuse for doing that SH, be very careful. Beside, we all know that Salon is the recycled refuse of ignorant loathing lefties!
No more US election threads ?!?!
But Australian politics is so boring compared to this stuff!
Brilliant thread title BTW Mr PB, gave me a chuckle. Decided not to ruin the moment by peering into the comment murkiness when I first saw this up, but I’m here now and wow. Quite a few of you need to grow the f*ck up. Seriously, it’s an internet blog, it’s free to use, and you won’t find a more neutral host in the blogosphere, so stop damn well abusing the privilege you have been given.
I speak, of course, to the minority there.
Anyway. As we count down the days (or hours?) to the official end of the primary season, it’s difficult not to reflect that… it has been a fun ride. Last couple of months have been nowhere near as entertaining as the first couple, but don’t we all remember the days of musing over whether Edwards would top Obama in the early primaries, or whether Romney would win the ultimate gamble of banking on latter states to prop him up, or whether ‘America’s Mayor’ would find his mojo…
Ultimately, regardless of what happens now, I’ve got the fight I wanted from the start. McCain vs Obama. Both seem to want what is best for their country, both have passion, both have ideas. Really, this is a battle for America’s spirit. An Obama loss here would psychologically set the country back – the black man couldn’t take out the evil, old, white stereotypical candidate. At least, that’s how history will see it. Democrats will be left to rue how they could possibly lose the unlosable election, and the scars will run deep for years to come.
And yet… what would be the cost of an Obama presidency, complete with a double digit senate majority, untouchable house majority and an opposition which will struggle to tie its own shoelaces and will probably take a half decade or more to become effective again? Is that really a good path for the country to go down? What if the Democrats decides to close America’s doors to the world market, albeit fractionally, while China opens its doors ever wider to the world? Should debate in Congress really run along the lines of ’should we appeal to the centre or the hard left in this one?’ Is ANY government left unchecked a good one?
Regardless, America has made its first choice: this is a battle for the centre. And I for one think the latte sipper will pull it off. And at this stage, I hope he does, simply because the US needs a shot in the arm and maybe this is what will do it. But it’s a long road to November. And by the looks of it, I might need to find a new home to settle in now to ramble in. Maybe I should start my own blog?
See ya Ecky, another sleep, another step closer to seeing off the Shills of Hills.
‘Any analysis of the political climate has to factor in the jaw-dropping statistic from the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll that 82 percent of the public believes that the country is on the “wrong track.”‘
So what might this p*ssed off demographic do Simon? Should they bother to vote that is.
357
Max
Australia has politics?
I’ve stopped listening to ABC radio, it’s only about corpses FFS. Who gives a flying monkey’s if Alexander Pooh Bear is retiring? He’s a nobody, a flatulent windbag backbencher. And Horatio and his 5 cents?
What in god’s name is anyone doing even giving these morons air to breathe?
Nup, the only game in town is Obama Vs McCain, and it’s going to be a cracker.
On a note on the delegate totals… I think the real question now becomes when will the magic number be reached?
It wouldn’t surprise me if, should Clinton not concede tonight, Obama privately cautions against too many superdelegates coming out over the next week and a bit. There is a very good chance that enough of them could come out before June 3 to finish the job – he will only need about 70 after tonight.
BUT the problem with that is… the media would call the race at slightly different times, because they have slightly different delegate counts. A week of confusion where one by one the media calls the battle, followed by flat out denials from the HRC camp, declarations she will see the battle through, the Obama camp torn over whether to claim victory… it would be very messy and quite possibly ugly, and not give the Dems that ‘united front’ moment they so desperately need.
What he really needs is a definitive moment when he can thank Clinton and move on to the next battle. And all sources suggest that that moment is going to be June 3. Clinton really won’t have a choice then, it will be a case of either conceding or have it conceded for her the next day when 50 SD’s announce as one their endorsement. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the trend of SD flows slowed just slightly over the next two weeks.
Yeah, pretty much what I said yesterday, but so much more eloquent is the Rude Pundit:
Why Bill Kristol Ought to Be Sodomized with a Rolled-Up Issue of The Nation (Part 327):
In today’s New York Times, the Clarence Thomas of the paper’s regular columnists, William Kristol, tries to give hope to John McCain supporters that they shall overcome the Barack Obama juggernaut. And it’s such a pathetic little half-whimper of a rallying cry that it’s more or less the rhetorical equivalent of a would-be prison bitch being punched in the face repeatedly by the yard’s biggest man-rapist who wants his ass. Yeah, you feel sorry for the bitch as he desperately swings his fists at the air, but you know that in the end, how ever much his nose is busted up and he’s tasting blood, that poor f*cker’s gettin’ reamed out.
http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/
…I recommend the remainder of this fine political discourse and warn the gentle reader that it gets very funny!
As things stand now, i agree with that conclusion Max.
However the caveat is the $20 Million debt. Since the day after NC it has all been about that for HRC. If/when/how that gets resolved could have her conceding tomorrow or never.
She is not going to wear a debt like that, especially as $11M of it is personally hers.
But , assuming a financial deal is worked out , it looks like plodding on till June 3.
On May 31 the Dem commitee will allot Michigan and Florida delegates. Michigan will be 69/59 split in Clintons favour and the Florida vote will stand with each delegate given half a vote.
Hillary will acknowledge defeat but will let the last state vote.
Then return to the Senate.
Max at 361
All of the signs are pointing to a scenario wherein Obama lets Clinton loose with grace. In tonights closing event we will see Obama taking the pledged delegate lead and what we don’t know here and now is if that lead will be sufficient to claim the majority if Florida and Michigan are seated. As such, if he makes too big a deal out of the majority benchmark, he faces a possibility of loosing the majority on the 31 – but not dropping much in terms of his lead over Clinton. It’s an interesting and delicate position. I don’t think we will see any concession from Hillary as she has committed herself to run out all of the votes which would take thing out to the 7 June. Only at that time will the rules be clarified, and the numbers totaled, and Obama established as Hillary’s endorsed candidate for the Democratic nominee.
Crude oil at US$129 and the AUD nudging 96 cents, and you can just hear the screams from here as the DOW plunges over the cliff.
We’ve got lots of that before November folks, and it will focus the punter’s minds on a darn sight more than flag pins.
Of that, you can be assured.
Night all.
G’night KR!
Superdelegate Update
Rep. Madeleine Bordallo from Guam has endorsed Barack Obama.
This pushes Obama’s lead to 204 delegates over Clinton.
Obama: 1922 delegates locked in, 103 to close (24.9% of the pool)
Clinton: 1718 delegates locked in, 307 to close (74.2% of the pool)
Superdelegate Update
Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan has endorsed Barack Obama. Scott’s endorsement focussed on the majority of pledged delegates tipping point coming up in just a few hours from now. He went on to say the following with respect to the ongoing race.
With Scott getting into line an all, Obama extends his lead to 205 and the pool shrinks to 413, and that makes it just a little more difficult for Hillary Clinton to mount her case.
The numbers as we head into the latest contest …
Obama: 1923 and 102 to win (or 24% of the pool)
Clinton: 1718 and 307 to win (or 74% of the pool)
And by this time tomorrow the pool percentage numbers noted above are going to make today look like a high moment for the Duracell Delegate’s campaign.
CNN just reported that Doctors say Senator Ted Kennedy has malignant brain tumor; condition discovered after he had seizure.
Drs. Lee Schwamm and Larry Ronan of Massachusetts General Hospital, where Kennedy is being treated, released this statement Tuesday:
“Over the course of the last several days, we’ve done a series of tests on Senator Kennedy to determine the cause of his seizure. He has had no further seizures, remains in good overall condition, and is up and walking around the hospital. Some of the tests we had performed were inconclusive, particularly in light of the fact that the Senator had severe narrowing of the left carotid artery and underwent surgery just 6 months ago.
“However, preliminary results from a biopsy of the brain identified the cause of the seizure as a malignant glioma in the left parietal-lobe. The usual course of treatment includes combinations of various forms of radiation and chemotherapy. Decisions regarding the best course of treatment for Senator Kennedy will be determined after further testing and analysis. Senator Kennedy will remain at Massachusetts General Hospital for the next couple of days according to routine protocol. He remains in good spirits and full of energy.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/kennedy.tumor/index.html
Superdelegate Update (3)
Following the script from Rocky I, Hillary Clinton scores a super delegate, one Martha Coakley from Massachusetts thereby reclaiming 1 point on the table, but losing one on the pool.
The numbers …
Obama: 1923 (resting on 102 to close the deal)
Clinton: 1719 (pulling the deficit in to 306)
Well said, Max at #357. The passion released seems to have made enemies of old allies. But the two views are not easily reconcilable until a lot more information is known. Add to that a voluntary voting system and some dodgy and variable enrolment requirements and it becomes harder to predict.
Personally, I’m with you, too. I like the idea of a leader extending hope to people, especially those who’ve had none in the last few years.
Delivery may well raise a new set of problems, but it is surely worth giving a try after the debasement of leadership in the past few years.
The Schedule
Kentucky
Polls close at 7.00 PM Eastern (9 AM EST)
Oregon
Polls close at 11.00 PM Eastern (12.30 PM EST)
Hillary proves the dictum that there is only one thing worse than being talked about, and this NOT being talked about:
The push on the Internet comes amid signs that Mrs. Clinton is getting less attention these days, both in the blogosphere and the mainstream media. Techpresident.com reports that according to the blog search tool Technorati, Mrs. Clinton is being mentioned less than half as often as Senator Barack Obama in the blogosphere and that mentions of her have even slipped below those of Senator John McCain.
And the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which tracks the weekly coverage of the candidates in various media, reports that Mrs. Clinton was a significant factor in 53 percent of the coverage last week, compared with 68 percent for Mr. Obama.
NYT (that’s short for New York Times, Ron, in case it’s too hard for you. I put that at the end of quotes which I precede with a colon, one of these:)
So she’s dying from a lack of attention, so to get some, she’s invented a new math, and that’s about it for relevance now.
And for those who like toys that move numbers around, the NYTimes has a nice slider on the front page which computes how what percentage of the delegates remaining Obama needs to win.
Have fun:
http://www.nytimes.com/
(Just for Ron: It shows you that Obama, if he wins his usual 53% of the remaining delegates today, will need only 3% of the remaining Supers. In other words, Hillary is kaput, finished, irrelevant. But if you’d like to tell us over and over again what a great candidate she is, then feel free. Nothing like irrelevance, eh, Ron?)
CNN polling results are starting to come in for Kentucky.
Clinton: 52%
Obama: 44%
5% reporting
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#KY
CNN Kentucky: 7% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 45%
Nice trend there Catrina. Doubtful it will continue, though.
From what I’ve heard – early numbers will be from metropolitan centers favoring Obama and the trend will head downhill. But your right – nice numbers to start the morning off with.
CNN Kentucky: 9% reporting
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 46%
Feeling sad today for Teddy Kennedy and his family: a great man, and a passionate advocate for social justice! Let’s all send him our prayers!
Kentucky: unless Hillary wins it with 80% of the vote, her anticipated victory in the primary doesn’t change the overall maths!
Apparently a big turnout in Oregon today – you’d expect Obama will win here comfortably!
One interesting figure from the Kentucky exit polls: 40% of respondents say John Edward’s endorsement of Obama affected their vote today.
CNN Kentucky: 11% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
Considering Obama didn’t bother campaigning in Kentucky, he’s doing well to be losing by only 5 points so far, but you’d expect Hillary’s lead will grow!
CNN Kentucky: 13% reporting
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 48%
No, its not a typo.
And another little update, for those thinking that the ‘crisis’ in US financial markets are over:
Shares of large-cap U.S. banking stocks traded lower Tuesday after analysts at Oppenheimer & Co. said they see the turmoil in credit markets lingering at least into next year.
“As we see no near- or medium-term comeback in securitization volumes, we believe losses will only accelerate further and far worse than even the most draconian estimates,” according to Whitney. “Due to continued deterioration in consumer liquidity, we are raising our loss expectations significantly for the group and lowering our earnings estimates significantly.”
Marketwatch
…so at least another year, maybe more. This is a long ride, and it’s downhill and very bumpy.
By November, nobody will be unaware that the economy is seriously rooted.
CNN Kentucky: 15% reporting
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 47%
CNN have called the race for Clinton.
CNN Kentucky: 16% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
Hullo Bludgers,
Something is going on in Ky that seems to be stalling HRC. Perhaps Edward’s endorsement of Bazza is playing??
13% of vote counted and The Kid’s only a point behind?!? Mousing over the countys, can’t figure where his votes are coming from. Maybe just an aberraration in tallying or perhaps I’m still dreaming.
CNN Kentucky: 17% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
CNN Kentucky: 22% reporting
Clinton: 54%
Obama: 43%
CNN Kentucky: 24% reporting
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 41%
CNN Kentucky: 28% reporting
Clinton: 56%
Obama: 40%
Looks like the Kettle clan have finally having their votes counted
Oops…’are’ finally having
CNN Kentucky: 31% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 39%
Come on Ecky, WAKE UP, this is more banjo territory! LOL
Plunkin’ for Hillary.
Funny, but Obama is exactly where Kerry was in Kentucky this far out from the election (info courtesy of a native to the state), so the notion that Obama is poison to poor whites is probably only true in the sense he’s a Northerner, and considered a ‘liberal’. This particular native son reckons that Obama will do a lot better with attention to the state, and presumably Hillary may even offer to help when she’s not inventing new math.
CNN Kentucky: 34% reporting
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 42%
Another few city booths must have come in. Geez it’s bouncin’ around in them thar hills.
Check out the most recent KY polls – the Kid isn’t doing too bad at this stage:
RCP Average 05/05 – 05/18 — 58.4 29.4 Clinton +29.0
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 – 05/18 629 LV Clinton +31.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/15 600 LV Clinton +36.0
Research 2000 05/07 – 05/09 500 LV Clinton +27.0
Rasmussen 05/05 – 05/05 800 LV Clinton +25.0
I doubt Kentucky will matter that much in November, at least for the presidential race!
In other breaking news: another 10 of Edwards former delegates have declared for Obama
Do you have a link?
I see McCain is still getting over 25% voting for ‘anyone but McCain’. The ‘Uncommitted’ at 6% is high. For 6% to come out and vote for ‘none of the above’ is interesting in itself.
CNN Kentucky: 41% reporting
Clinton: 57%
Obama: 40%
CNN exit polls on gender of voters: 57/43 F/M
And the age distribution has 44% between 45-64.
Pretty skewed demographic. Looks like a lot of blokes did not bother to turn out. It’s the Menopausal Bloc vote for Hillary.
Letcher County voting for Clinton. They must think Bill’s the candidate. And they say in Harlan Gounty their are no neutrals there – 80% for Hillary. Sheesh!
there
I’m surprised it’s on 18 points difference after 42 counted. I suspect it will drift out.
Robert Bollard at 407
Wikipedia: The median income for a household in the county was $21,110, and the median income for a family was $24,869. Males had a median income of $30,488 versus $17,902 for females. The per capita income for the county was $11,984. About 23.70% of families and 27.10% of the population were below the poverty line, including 35.90% of those under age 18 and 21.20% of those age 65 or over.
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AvsDwLvpjRI7m5o1eg_Nm1Ml6ysC
CNN Kentucky: 44% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 39%
CNN Kentucky: 48% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 38%
KR – Mental Bloc perhaps – don’t you think Menopausal Bloc is innappropriate? Its not a description older women that appeals to me.
CNN Kentucky: 54% reporting
Clinton: 59%
Obama: 37%
A quick word on Ted Kennedy. Sadly, it’s not good news.
A malignant glioma which is going to be treated with chemo +/- radiotherapy has a very poor prognosis. He may get a good response to the RT and a small number will be cured, maybe 5%. But overall, 50% will die within a year. Also, he should resign as he is likely to develop mental impairment given that the tumour is in his left parietal lobe which controls rational thought.
CNN Kentucky: 55% reporting
Clinton: 62%
Obama: 34%
CNN Kentucky: 61% reporting
Clinton: 64%
Obama: 32%
414
Wakefield
It’s a flippant play on some of the politically correct ‘block vote’ (ie ‘black’ vote) that’s been often used.
And given the demographic, older women (oh, yeah, and ‘white’), maybe we could call it the White Menopausal Block, or how about the White Older Menopausal Block, or WOMB for short?
Sorry, I just got carried away.
WMB then, is that OK? LOL
A massive 30% KY loss by Obama amongst registered Democrat voters normally
would cause concern but not here with Obamabots having the howardism fact syndrome
Oregon may e 14% Obama’s way due to sub groups of Demographics but KY is the same message as OH , PA & NW
416
Diogenes
I would have thought that brain tumours aren’t usually ‘good’ news Dio. I still remember the shock of Andrew Ollie leaving us so abruptly, but at least grandfather Ted has had a somewhat longer innings.
420
Ron
And what ‘message’ is that Ron? That poor whites prefer Hillary? Well, guess what old son, they can’t have her in November. They’ll just have to get over it I guess, like you have.
416
Diogenes
They call economics the dismal science, but I have a mate in epidemiology, and I reckon that beats economics hands down.
KR
There are a lot of brain tumours that are easily curable and require no chemo or radiotherapy. They also don’t need to remove any “brain tissue” in those tumours and there is no cerebral deficit. But Ted’s is not one of them.
KR 422
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUvQzgxTxmE
One of Obama’s strategies clearly must be to bridge the gap with rural and lower socio-economic voters. There’s around 60 million rural voters in the US so this is not a block that he can ignore. He will need Hillary onside to assist, particularly with the country cousins.
Ron: Kentucky doesn’t matter, it’ll stay Republican in November, irrespective of whoever the Democrat nominee is.
I can’t see why Clinton keeps campaigning, unless it’s for financial reasons, to raise money to pay off her campaign debt. She won’t get the nomination, Obama has more delegates, the superdelegates won’t disenfranchise black voters & a good proportion of whites by switching to Hillary.
So Clinton is speaking and seemingly going nowhere until June.
Which really was expected. And in a way let’s face it, we would all be in some twisted way disappointed if the game ended two weeks before it had to. We’ve gone this far now, may as well see it through to the end.
At least we have a countdown. 13 days to go, probably to the hour, until we have our concession. Now all we need is a clock counting down.
Paragraph of the day so far:
Big call. Shame about the maths.
Ferny Grover: I presume that’s the value of Edwards endorsing Obama, Edwards helps shore up poor/lower income white voters for Obama?
To Jen , Megan , Catrina & Grace
k/r says “the White Menopausal Block”
Are you lot prepared to tell your ‘colleague’ k/r that his term for female pro Hillary voters in KY of quote “the White Menopausal Block” is not OK ?
(just curious , for mine k/r had no class in the first place)
Ron at 420
Idaho, a 63% loss for Clinton, Kansas: 48%, Georgia 36%, Colorado 35%, Alaska 49%, Hawaii 52%, and your point is?
CNN Kentucky: 86% reporting
Clinton: 65%
Obama: 31%
425
Robert Bollard
Ain’t much changed then, huh?
(Not one of his great songs, but all his unique idiomatic structures are there, even the lousy tuning! LOL)
Ron at 430
Yes, your right. KR was wrong this time.
If you look at the exit polls it is clear that we are talking about a largely post-Menopausal block. KR – I demand an immediate public apology and correction.
Oh, r/Ron are you outraged enough?
While they come out with their vox pops: “I ain’t votin’ fa no nigga” or “he’s a Muslim aint’ he” or “I ain’t votin’ for no Hussein” you do seem a might precious about older women’s reproductive status. It’s a medical term Ron, not a term of abuse.
Do you know the difference?
434
Catrina
“Post” is it, Delphic Oracle!
LOL, ya crack me up!
CNN Kentucky: 90% reporting
Clinton: 65%
Obama: 30%
Obama raised $40M in April, Hillary $20M and McCain $18M.
By the way Catrina, do you think we should tell Ron what KY is for?
Nah, he wouldn’t get it! LOL
KR at 439
I think that would be slipper slope you do not want to venture down.
slippery
BTW – for all practical purposes, based on the CNN numbers, Obama is only 0.5 of a delegate away from taking the majority of pledged delegates.
Very slippery.
You dropped your ‘y’!
yes, let’s NOT go there, or we will NEVER hear the end of it!
Now, back to business.
Correction on 442
Obama campaign are claiming that they are 15.5 away from the majority and CNN are showing him with 12, suggesting he is currently 3.5 away from the majority. My own numbers suggest he has already passed the majority by about 4.
A NYT blogger sums it up:
Mark an “x” next to Obama if you are not racist. Or, mark an “x” next to Clinton if you are not sexist. Even better, check the box next to McCain in November if you are both.
Frankly, the entire nation is aware of the racism inherent to the culture of the southern states. This is not to say that there are not outliers, but by and large, uneducated people think uneducated thoughts.
Frankly, I’m still searching for the Succession Papers filed by the South many years ago. I plan on having them signed and returned. I believe in the independence of the South–they should be their own sovereign nation.
Finally, when people call either candidate “elitist”, they are making an accurate claim. Both Obama and Clinton are extremely educated and wealthy, with a lot of political clout in high places. Obvious. This is what it takes to be a nominee. They are qualified to run for president precisely because they are better equipped/connected for the job than the average citizen. Call this ‘elitism’ if you will, but I do not want a president that represents the values of a state–Kentucky, for example–that is in dire need of educational, economic, and social attention.
…I like the line about ‘uneducated people think uneducated thoughts’.
We’ve all read quite a few of them.
Progressive #427
“Ron: Kentucky doesn’t matter, it’ll stay Republican in November”
Obama won Democrat Primarys in strong ‘red’ States Louisiana , Mississippi , Alabama , Georgia & lesser ‘red’ states NC & SC. Some Obama supporters here bragged for days about those wins. What I’ve found with yous being a huge majority here is inconistency , one would think the reverse would apply if at all.
These ‘red’ States total 388 delegates (plus Supers) Obama’s lead is approx. 80
What conclusion should any political analysis draw ?
Is the 90%+ black vote for Obama in these ‘red’ States a question mark ?
(and my only comment , 30% loss should be a concern & there is a message there.You mainly ‘FL” supporters think like Howardism , just different idealologys)
444
Catrina
A toast is in order Catrina:
Salute to Obama, the 2008 Democratic Nominee, and the next President of the United States of America.
(even if we have to wait for Hillary to get of the bloody stage! LOL)
My guess is that this result for Hillary is a concerted last ditch effort by her supporters to make a loud statement of support. Which will probably mean the same response from Obama supporters in Oregon.
“idealologys”
That’s ‘bewdiful’ Ron, is that some sort of TV award, or have you invented another language all by yourself?
Impressive.
448
Jen
Funny timing isn’t it? The biggest white/poor/old/uneducated states come after she has all but lost, and way too late to make any difference.
But as she’s shown, if reality doesn’t do it for you, just call in the Bosnian Snipers!
(Great name for an Indy band: The Bosnian Snipers)
KR at 447
*pop*
*gurgle*
*gurgle*
*clink*
Cheers!
Catrina
Thanks for all the stats – its great to come on here and be able to get up to the minute info on how the polling is going.
KR
How did the andropausal set vote?
In excess of 240,000 forclosures in the month of April in Uncle Sams backyard.
If there are two persons per household that is something like half a mill who may want to come out and play with the vote machines. One wonders which button they may push as a get square. That is only April of course.
http://www.builderonline.com/newsletter/bbu052008.aspx?cid=BLDR080520002
Diogenes;
In an earlier thread My CT one was Imbecile would trash Eyeran and invoke the Patriot act thereby cancelling the elections. Some one pointed out that he would not dare do that.
re The Menopausal Women Bloc- as a woman of that age group – (not dicussing my hormonal staus though) I support obama.
CNN exit polls basically say that 50% more woman voted than men in KY. And that they were nearly half in the 45-64 year old age group.
So yes Jen, it’s Hillary’s WMB, with Hillary doing a General Custer.
(sorry, that should be WPMB, as per Catrina’s astute observation!)
status
CNN Kentucky: 97% reporting
Clinton: 65%
Obama: 30%
Thanks Catrina – no big surprises there. When do we see Oregon?
452
Grace
They stayed home in droves Grace! (Probably glad to have the old girl out of the house for a while! LOL)
But seriously, almost 60/40 split on M/F?
Somebody’s got some explaining to do about why he didn’t go and vote for Hillary!
Nice article about the state of the contest. No victory for anyone till Michigan and Florida are sorted? Obama seems to have a problem with assertive women.
watch it with the Old Girl thing Kirri. I’m the same age as Obama , who is called the Kid – funny that huh?
Umbrage….
OOps here is the link.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/us/politics/21campaign.html?hp
Jen at 458
Oregon
Polls close at 11.00 PM Eastern (12.30 PM EST)
#420, #446 Ron
Ron, please don’t mention “Howardism” in reference to Obama supporters again. Whatever you think of us, we don’t deserve such a low blow.
Who would have thought that there were not enough uneducated, illiterate, racist rednecks in the US for Hillary to beat Obama? Not me!!
461
Jen
Only referring to the 45-64 cohort in the most endearing of ways, Jen!
Now, where’s me banjo…
#463 Catrina
I make it 1.00 pm AEST when the Oregon polls close.
Triton at 467
You could be right – either way its not far off.
Time for another glass of bubbly?
CNN is announcing that Obama has won the majority of pledged delegates.
64 and 45 are quite a long way apart Kirribilli!
Good to see old ’shoot the nigga’ Huckelberry getting 8% of the vote in KY, eh?
Like he ain’t in the race no more, but hey, he made a dang funny joke about the darkie, eh?
They got ‘em a sense of humour in those parts.
Tenkewveddymuch, ladies and gentlemen, after a brief interval the second part of today’s performance will commence. Refreshments may be purchased front of house at the (esspresso) bar. Management apologises that soy milk is currently unavailable for lattes as Growler did the shopping. Do enjoy the the comedy interlude and out of consideration to others, please resume your seats comfortably ahead of curtain call.
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Aj94lAZlNiu3wX7yNRjwNxdR_b4F
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tonyauth;_ylt=AoFEpU3Dq1uB7aWruBlKD3Te.sgF
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AtstTxPmUvG49Ha3Eb_jyRHX.sgF
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=Amu5CtvOPUIDei8_Q8VZWe3b.sgF
470
Jen
Sorry Jen, the pollster don’t see it that way! Apparently!
I’m off now, so have fun, and tell Ron when you see him, that I’m really sorry his ‘best candidate’ didn’t win the nomination, better luck next time. OK?
And oh yeah, break it to him gently, he’s a bit fragile with reality.
“Two-thirds of Clinton’s supporters there said they would vote Republican or not vote at all rather than for Obama, according to the polls.”
says it all really.
In other wrds if you want a Democrat in power ther is really only one choice – Looks like hillary has gone to the Other Side.
Looks like our BHO is shaping up to be a prize turkey come November. How sad for the Democrats – another failed nominee, he wont even win the popular vote in the nominating contest. How many ways can you spell failure? It just goes to show trots infect and destroy everything they touch.
Great wrap of the current situation by CNN analysts.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/primary.wrap/index.html#cnnSTCVideo
Triton
#464
A strong majority of women in KY as with most of the US vote for Hillary as do a majority of all white men , Asians & hispanics. They are wide demographics
Go back & re-read some Obama supporters today think like Howardism , just
different ideologys , its there all written down. Instead of accepting the result , trash the voters as bigots who vote Hillary by over 30% & did the same in PA , OH and WV , pathetic elist Obamabot snobs. I said “mainly FL” , not “all” , whether you are an Obamabot also or an ObamaRealist Triton I do not know
My point on the 6 ‘red’ states & Obama’s 90%+ vote there & elsewhere is the massive 90%+ is the black ethnic based vote which is out of all proportion statistically to all other voting blocs. . That is a statistical fact. And it is the reason for Obama’s delegate lead. Typical ‘howardism’ thinking firstly to ignore this reality , secondly to pretend its non existence & avoid bloging and thirdly like ‘howardism’ to then lie with racim allegations when this statistical fact is bloged. Yes Triton , Obamabots have ‘howardism’ thinking & just not on this
All of that ‘we’ll support McCain or not show up if our candidate doesn’t get up’ stuff. I mean, really: when you’re filing into the ground for the semi-final pumped up for the game, decked up in team colours, and someone asks you ‘if your team loses this game, do you want your opponent in this match to win the flag, over one of the teams in the other semi-final?’ Of course you’re going to say ‘the enemy burns in hell– I’ll never support ‘em. At best, I won’t care who wins the grannie’.
Ask people who voted for HRC in 3 months’ time what their intentions are and you might have a meaningful result. (Although not in Kentucky, because it’s solid red and not even the most optimistic Dem advocate could list it as a possible gain regardless of candidate.) The lower figures for Obama supporters (i.e. more of them said they’d support HRC in November) is because they can afford to be magnanimous– they know they’ll never have to deliver on that promise.
Read recently that 60% of Democrats somewhere-or-other told a pollster they did not support Bill C as the candidate shortly after he became the presumptive one in 1992. (Can’t be bothered chasing up link– sorry.) Didn’t do him much harm.
Hillary has superb support among elder white women, which are turning out in droves in places like WV and KY. That is understandable and not surprising at all.
Looking beyond that, it is apparent that Charlie Manson or any white dood would beat the boogaloo candidate in WV and KY that are rural southerners and 90+% white.
CNN Kentucky: 100% reported.
Clinton: 65%
Obama: 30%
Catrina,
That is a “shellacking” in anyone’s language.
GG at 481
Actually – its an Obama win!
Obama picks up around 17 delegates and as a result takes the majority of pledged delegates. You need to keep in mind that this is a race for delegates, not a beauty contest – and Kentucky just gave that race to Obama (and god bless their little cotton socks).
OMFG Obama should withdraw from the race now, it’s all over, Hillary’s Kentucky victory proves only she can win in November! I guess it doesn’t matter that Obama now has the majority of pledged delegates, who gives a _______?
We’ll rip up the rules, divide the Democratic Party, disenfranchise black voters and young people. Hillary doesn’t need them, she’ll cost to victory on the back of women, Republicans and racists – so say ESJ and Ron!
Obama must be writing his concession speech right now LOL
“ February 12, 2007 08:24pm AAP:
PRIME Minister John Howard has refused to back down from his attack on US presidential hopeful Barack Obama, vowing to do the same again if it’s in the nation’s best interests.
A strident Mr Howard today refused to retract his claim that a victory by Senator Obama at next year’s US election would be a win for terrorists.”
Ron at 477:
“…. Obamabots have ‘howardism’ thinking & just not on this ”
Specious logic is often a difficult concept to come to terms with for the zealous.
Catrina,
Is that an SD in your soup?
Does a Florida or Michigan make your champagne sour?
Florida and Michigan broke the rules, they got punished!
ESJ @ 475,
Understated contribution, as always.
Cheers
Progressive,
So Obama is the Democratic Party nominee for 48 states. That will play well in the campaign.
HRC says “We’re winning the popular vote” in her acceptance speech in Kentucky.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/us/politics/20text-clinton.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Not that anyone is going to care in a couple of weeks’ time, but that is a pretty ordinary remark. Even after Kentucky, the only matrix on which she is in front in the popular vote (including if you count Florida) is if she awards herself Michigan by 328,309 to nil.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
Because that, like, so accurately represents the true sentiments of Michigan Democrats. Like I said before, an approach worthy of a totalitarian fond of show-elections, rather than someone who has made upholding democractic principles the cornerstone of her decision to stay in.
Oh, and EsJ @ 475: You’re nearly there. You’re inching closer and closer to the precipice. Stop looking down and prevaricating, and just say, “It is my prediction that John McCain will defeat Barack Obama in the Presidential election in November.” It’ll be out there, it’ll be done, and you’ll feel much better. Or are you still not quite sure and (to switch metaphors) you’re just looking to get in a few rabbit-punches while the umpire isn’t looking?
Ron @ 477
‘Obama’s now beating Clinton among Hispanics’ Movement & change.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/the_party_coalesces_around_oba.php
ESJ
Have you read Nixonland? What is the best book on Nixon and Kissinger? And I don’t want a hagiography, something critical but balanced. Because the Repugs are in a similar place to when LBJ annihilated them but Nixon turned it around in eight years. I’m keen to know how he did it, as area few present-day Repugs.
Hillary needs 105% of the remaining delegates in order to win the nomination: it ain’t gonna happen!
And, once again on Florida/Michigan: Hillary was the only candidate on the Michigan ballot, Obama didn’t even bother campaigning in Florida: it is spurious for Senator Clinton to claim she legitimately won popular vote victories in both states.
Progressive – can we not put Women and Racists in the same demographic?
And for the Clinton supporters out there, it may not be the case in Rpubelican Southern states, but Obama appears to be attracting plenty of women (white, and black too for that matter ones) across the country.
Republican …
and black ones too, for that matter…
I think I’m turning into Ron.
Progressive,
My original comment was that Florida and Michigan needs to be sorted. A theme of this Democratic Primary season is that voters have been turning out in record numbers in order to participate in the process. From what I can see in the numbers today, there is no dropping off of willing participants just because some people like to allege that the contest is over. I just think it is unbelievably arrogant for the Obama team to think they can ignore this reality.
Compromise: seat the Florida and Michigan delegations at the convention, and divide them equally between the Obama and Clinton camps.
Progressive
I think you can divide Michigan equally, but you’d have to make a compromise on a split on Florida (which from my recollection they were both on the ballot).
Kentucky final result
Hillary 459,145 votes Obama 209, 771 votes…… Hillary 65% to Obama 30%
Oregon with certain Obama advantages expect a approx 14 point win.
Hillary and Obama will win Oregon in November. McCain will win Kentucky in Nov.
The significance is the massive 35% Hillary margin in Kentucky and the various psephology concerns it raises for Obama , but not for Hillary.
Just one point alone is Obama has won combined , just 24% of the white , Asian , Latino & Hispanic votes
GG at 496
Do the numbers, include FL and MI, even without assigning him anything in MI, or even without any vote penalties – Obama is still ahead. Now – there is a meeting on 31st. which you already know – and that meeting may change the rules of the game – and you know that too, and if changes are put in place the chances of seating MI and FL without penalty are remnote to say the least. I.e. if he’s still ahead in the most negatively extreme and improbably scenario, then you have to be a blind as a welders dog not to see the outcome of this race.
Progressive,
Compromise: seat the Florida and Michigan delegations at the convention and give them all to Clinton.
I do not think that word (compromise) means what you think it means.
GG, this has nothing to do with arrogance and all to do with mathematics and practicalities.
Obama has won simply by gaining more delegates than Hillary. She can’t catch him now. That is a simple fact, whether you choose to accept it or not.
But Hillary is dragging out the primary season right to the bitter end, which is her right to do so, but it is distracting the Democrat’s presumptive nominee, Obama, from taking on the main fight with McCain.
So, Obama SHOULD be assuming victory and he SHOULD start ignoring Hillary and he SHOULD start getting on with the real battle against the GOP. He needs to maximise the chances of a Democrat gaining POTUS.
First results from Oregon. 61/39 Obama.
That’s Lane county only BTW.
CNN:Oregon
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR
11% of the vote
Obama: 63%
Clinton: 37%
Those results are coming mainly from large town/city centres, including Portland, so it’s not suprising the margin is large. It will reduce a fair bit.
BTW, 11% counting so far.
Catrina
That should come in right? I thought the polls were pointing to Obama by somewhere around 5-10%
YHH, it will when the rural votes come in.
Interesting – Ron Paul 15%
CNN:Oregon, 16% counted.
Obama: 51%
Clinton: 39%
CNN:Oregon, 17% counted.
Obama: 61%
Clinton: 39%
GG
‘Option 1: No FL & MI: Pledged Delegate Majority (PDM) Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 2: Seat MI as 69-59. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 3: Seat FL with 1/2 votes (supers get full vote). No Michigan delegates. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 4: FL 1/2 vote, MI 69-59 split. PDM Clinched with the Oregon polls closed.
Option 5: Seat FL & MI based on the elections that have taken place. Not clinched tonight.
This is the only option under which Obama will not clinch the PDM tonight. Going into tonight he needed 102 pledged delegates to clinch the PDM.’
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
16% counted, still 61/39
Wasco county is currently a dead heat – 1676 votes each
I think my 511 was a mistake. Sorry!
The CNN exit poll gives it 56/42 to Obama. Their exit poll has consistently favoured Obama (most Clinton supporters are too ashamed to admit it) so a 10% win is probably the result.
Also mail in votes to count in Oregon too: Obama was said to be doing well in these!
Obama winning a state full of whites: who would have thought it?
CNN:Oregon, 25% counted.
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%
yes GG
#496
Obamabotic maths are not very good. there are 4417 delegates in total , so any Nominee needs 2209. Obama is well short.
Obama’s Howard Dean DNC FL chairman mate excludes FL & MI strong Hillary states like PA , OH & WV.
This Obama biased vote rorting of FL & MI by not including them ALL , despite Obama campaigning in BOTH FL and MI unlike Hillary. Oama’s name was on the FL ballot. Obama’s name was on the MI ballot , found the polling did not suit him so HE PERSONALLY decided took his name off the MI ballot….
then Obama thereafter had the gall to actively campaign there despite DNC rules
Obama is a party to vote rigging. And has denied Hillary momentum both into Super Tuesday & MI & FL ‘es exclusion has allowed the left leaning Obama press to falsely claim for months that Obama lead the delegate count increasing his donations & later momentum votes
The obamabots defence of this gruby abuse of democracy is equal to their disregard of the above facts
haha, Catrina: “blind as a welders dog”! That’s gorgeous!
But how about dumb as a HillBilly Shill?
CNN:Oregon 29% counted.
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%
Kirribilli Removals: mate, you’ll appreciate this.
Why Hillary thinks Oregon is sexist? They have a “male only” vote! HA HA
Thanks r/Ron – pure authentic gibberish.
Obama is doing better in the rural counties than I thought he would. Might be a good day for him.
CNN:Oregon, 30% counted.
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%
BAKER county Hillary leading by 1 vote.
Ron said “Obama is a party to vote rigging”
Oh dear.
520
Ron
You call this a ‘fact’: “Obama is a party to vote rigging.”
We’ll just have to start calling you More Ron at this rate.
You wouldn’t know a fact if it bit your head off!
SNAP Possum, you can say SNAP!
CNN:Oregon, 33% counted.
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%
I’m too busy putting on my tinfoil hat to say snap KR.
CNN:Oregon, 35% counted.
Obama: 60%
Clinton: 40%
35% still 60/40
Baker now hillary by 3 votes.
523
Progressive
yeah, ‘white’ male, too!
Gotta say that only white northern liberal tosh is looking a tad tarnished. Another ‘fact’ for Ron’s playbook flushed away.
He has won it, fair and square, and Hillary can rewrite arithmetic or the DNC rules or the bloody bible if she wants, it ain’t going to make on iota of difference.
Bye Hill, and take Bill with you please.
CNN: Oregon 39% counted.
Obama: 59%
Clinton: 41%
I’m guessing Hillary will say Oregon doesn’t count, along with all the other states she lost LOL
CNN: Oregon 40% counted.
Obama: 59%
Clinton: 41%
Progressive,
Oregon is a mail-only primary. There aren’t any ballot boxes. So when you say
they’re the only votes being counted!
Dio,
While a lot of the exit polls have favoured Obama, these exit polls are not true exit polls as there are no booths. CNN were saying these were telephone calls placed to ask people if they’d voted and who they voted for, etc. so any late movement towards or away from Obama won’t be shown in the exit polls.
Gotta go, the real world beckons, alas.
Have fun, unless your name is Ron, in which case you can go and drown your sorrows.
Better luck next time.
bye
dogb
#524
typical Obamabotic reply. Can not argue against the adverse Obama points, and never have previously. In this case Obama is a party to vote rigging by exclusion
There is evidence of his name on both ballots , of his TV adds & his active campaigning , but dispensible facts to yous. Obamabotic ‘howardism thinking’
This is a Dems State now , McCain is in font of Obama now , imagine McCain making TV adds & sending flyers in last week of October to the 300,000 odd who voted Hillary pointing out the vote rort
CNN: Oregon 42% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
CNN: Oregon 44% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
CNN: Oregon 47% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
CNN: Oregon 48% counted.
Obama: 57%
Clinton: 43%
CNN: Oregon 49% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
I actually agree with Ron’s general point about Florida and Michigan. That is, that Obama’s removal of his name from the Michigan ballot was more a political gesture than one based on some overarching principle.
Whether that constitutes “vote rigging” is another question.
I have said many times that the disqualification of these two state’s delgates being seated at the DNC on a technicality is a “crock”. My view is that Obama should take his lumps re Florida and Michigan and fight for the nomination on the convention floor. He might be able to do that. However, to not do so or to not have the issue sorted prior to the campaign proper will saddle his campaign with lead (as in the metal) he may not be able to cary through to November.
Can any budding Antony Greens tell us why the US primaries reverse the Australian practice of small rural booths getting results in early?
This one (Oregon) is a big test for the pollsters, because polls conducted in the last week or so have the spread as varying from +4 to +20 for Obama. Someone’s bound to wind up with egg on their face. RCP average 12.0, i.e. “let’s split the difference”. And it looks like the RCP average is going to be close.
As Kentucky indicates (Obama won the counties containing Louisville and Lexington– the two biggest urban areas in the state), cities are Obama’s strong suit. And as Portland among other examples shows, not just those cities with a large proportion of black people.
Ron
Hillary Clinton signed a pledge not to count MI or FL. Was she a party to vote rigging too?
With only 38% counted in Multnomah County, there’s plenty of fat left there for The Kid.
Meanwhile, John McCain’s campaign is in serious trouble: his media adviser quits!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/20/234448/128/272/519409
HRC’s performance in Oregon’s rural areas was disappointing. Those that she won, she won by slender margins, and she even lost a few. Possibly because she had no money to campaign there– who knows? It’s all near enough to a moot point now (except so far as it says anything about O’s electability in November).
Multnomah County (containing Portland) has been stuck on 38% of precincts reporting for some time, and is 64:36 for O. Most of the rural areas have already reported a sizeable chunk of their votes. Other urbanised areas are breaking for O at a trend of around 60:40 and have a fair slab of their votes to go, too. It all adds up to concluding that the current 58:42 result may not get any better for HRC. Unless she has some good booths in Portland among the remaining 62% of ‘em.
SimonH at 550
Just to throw some data into the miox – here is a map of the pupulation distribution across the state. As you can see, counties that have not reported yet represent next to nothing in terms of the number of votes.
http://www.maps.com/ref_map.aspx?pid=12681
mix, not miox
EC
#484
Mr Howard today refused to retract his claim “that a victory by Senator Obama at next year’s US election would be a win for terrorists.”
Obamabots have ‘howardism’ thinking & just not on this ”
Ron
#477
“Obama’s 90%+ vote there 6 red States & elsewhere is the massive 90%+ is the black ethnic based vote which is out of all proportion statistically to all other voting blocs. . That is a statistical fact. And it is the reason for Obama’s delegate lead. Typical ‘howardism’ thinking firstly to ignore this reality , secondly to pretend its non existence & avoid bloging and thirdly like ‘howardism’ to then lie with racim allegations when this statistical fact is bloged. Yes Triton , Obamabots have ‘howardism’ thinking & just not on this”
I defined Obamabotic “howardism thinking”. Tough if you personally do not like the definition , although the stats in my #477 to support the definion’s analogy to how ‘howardism’dealt with similar inconvenient political truths & events.
Your analogy disingenuously simply quotes Howard’s political opinion of Obama and not the ‘howardism’ method of dealing with inconvenient political truths & events. Logically you were wrong , but I also wonder whether you intended a cheap innuendo as well , but your blog certainly again avoided the indisputable fact I raised.
CNN: Oregon 52% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Fox News still relentlessly attacking Obama.
Fox News still relentlessly pushing Clinton.
Gee…..I wonder why.
Who woulda thunk it that the Clintons would be the Fox wingnuts best friend?
Well, i would.
The Clintons and the Bushes have always been each others best ally. They’ve just split the country in half and vowed off each others turf for however long they could maintain their little feifdoms.
Well, now the Democratic Party have said enough. Conservatism is on the wane and Dean and the bigwigs have said it’s time to p*ss off with the Clintons and the DLC.
And where, pray tell, did his political acumen and astuteness get the little grub, Ronaldo? Where is the Mr. Bigtime Loser today?
Pymble Golf Club perhaps, having lost his seat, the federal election and having just endorsed the lowest scoring (yes, lower than Simon Crean) opposition leader in the history of Australian opinion polling.
You’re going to have to lift your game ,Ronaldo, or Team Amigo will be reluctant to even play you on the bench!
Exactly Harry – which is why so many Clinton supporter’s votes interchangeable with a vote for the repugs.
Incredible- it would be like trying to imagine labour voters here supporting Howard if they didn’t get their candidate of choice. Ridiculous.
Jen,
I think they did. Remember, Mark Latham?
According to Slate, HRC is going to play dirty to the bitter end:-
” Hillary Clinton shows no sign of stopping. Wednesday she will travel to Florida to argue that he wants to win the nomination by disenfranchising the state’s Democratic primary voters, a visit that can only damage him in a swing state crucial to Obama’s chances in November.
As Clinton presses her case, she’s also making it more painful for Obama if he tries to push her out. She told the Washington Post that the way she’s been treated in the race has been “deeply offensive to millions of women.” Her husband echoed this misogyny charge on Tuesday.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191797/
CNN: Oregon 55% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Grace,
Playing dirty is telling the truth? Hmmm.
Ol Yella
In order to agitate, you need to make your needling less transparent.
GG – Thank you, I aim to please, sometimes I feel my subtlety goes over the heads of some.
SimonH – I am actually a very nimble and agile dancer
Diogenes – Now Nixon – there was a President, where do we start? Monica Crowley was his intern in 1993 I think the year before he “passed”. She wrote a book about his “private comments” – worth a look if you can find it.
Also Conrad Black has done a real doorstopper on him which is interesting as a counterpoint to his book on FDR. He is actually quite interesting because he grew up dirt poor and worked his way up AND for a republican he signed off some of the last progressive social legislation in America.
I wonder what Milhous would have thought about the “audacity of my bottom” from BHO? For the evil master of the Southern Strategy I am sure he would have made mincemeat of BHO – but in many respects this election is like the Watergate election or the 93 Australian election – the unloseable election? On paper BHO should win but yeah he may very blow it – after all the May polls are hardly very convincing and McCain is very busy innoculating himself with jokes in speeches like “What Americans need in their next President is someone who is very very very old” etc etc
Just as much as being “deeply offensive” is telling the truth. Yawn.
We all know that they’ll kiss and make up well before the convention; she’s shown enough signs over the last couple of weeks that she’ll be a team player. Provided she isn’t delusional enough to think she can barge her way onto the VP slot over his objection.
GG 561
Telling the truth?
Do you think she will front Florida on Wednesday and tell them that she agreed with the DNC on the rules for Florida and Michigan – and only changed her mind when she failed to clean-up on Super Tuesday?
I cannot recall any demeaning of her candidature because of her gender – I have a vivid recollection of her dog-whistling “hard working white Americans”
If you have any evidence of the misogyny I would be interested to read.
Oh Grace,
Come now – BHO is going to lose the popular vote, the BHO argument is like saying Kevin Rudd was legitimately elected leader of the ALP in December 2006 even if Western Australia MP’s were excluded from a vote.
Legitimacy stems from winning a vote and being seen to win a vote fairly. BHO seems to think he can make Hill concede and then throw some concession over Fl and MI in fact he should have allowed a re-run and be seen to win cleanly over her. This way he has hobbled his own legitimacy.
He may win – he may win North and South Carolina and Virginia and in fact aliens may invade tomorrow too but lets deal in the real world shall we?
EsJ @ 563: As I thought. If you’ve only spent $1.95, anyone who accuses you of having put down your two quid is a liar.
To state the obvious (i.e. be unsubtle): anyone who feels the need to compliment themselves on their own subtlety in a public forum, is entirely lacking in any.
Well SimonH do you think subtlety is a relative or absolute concept?
Where’s Kirri, surely he’s fueled up and raring to go after his lunchtime visit to the boozer?
Diogenes
#491
” Because the Repugs are in a similar place to when LBJ annihilated them but Nixon turned it around in eight years. I’m keen to know HOW he Nixon did it, as area few present-day Repugs”.
Nixon was in the middle of another unpopular war , Vietnam , with already some news on the Watergate break-in. The democrats picked another “left Liberal Democrat” , and the Dems got thrashed 49 States to 1 State (Nixon over 60% of vote). ick Latham or his ilk in 2007 , and Howard wins.
The Repugs are on the nose badly , and therefore Obama should be streets ahead. The fact Obama is not , is not the color of his skin but the color of his
“NE type elitist left Liberal Democrat” views
Grace,
I have made several comments re Florida today. Perhaps you might like to use the scroll back function to inform yourself of my opinions (if you can be bothered).
I have a vivid recollection of her dog-whistling “hard working white Americans”.
I have a vivid recollection of him dog-whistling “Black Americans”.
Judging the candidates motives by different standards is misogynist or racist? You decide.
SimonH,
Two quid is $4. So putting $1.95 down and saying that it is correct weight is akin to declaring oneself the victor when the race is not completed.
CNN: Oregon 57% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Applying the Tabasco in Wasco, The Kid kicks away by 132 votes!
CNN: Oregon 62% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Holding up nicely.
Ron, a follow up to 490
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/20/poll-obama-gaining-support-with-key-clinton-demographics/
ESJ
The Watergate election (1972) was when the Committee to Re-elect the President broke into the DNP offices in the watergate building. The connection of Nixon and his re-election committee to this break-in was not exposed until well after the election had concluded.
This same group of criminals (Gordon Liddy et al) had also broken into the Democrat candidate for VP’s Psychiatrists Office – whereby they were able to leak the information about his shock therapy – and put the screws into him to denounce McGovern. (Suggested reading Woodward and Bernstein, Watergate)
Regardless, the Democratic Party had still not recovered from the 1968 Convention – where Mayor Daley and his police put paid to any participation by young people in the electoral process for years. (Suggested reading Norman Mailer)
Ditto the assasination of MLK alienated the black vote.
EC at 574
Yes! Now we just need to take care of BAKER.
EsJ @ 566: “Come now – BHO is going to lose the popular vote, the BHO argument is like saying Kevin Rudd was legitimately elected leader of the ALP in December 2006 even if Western Australia MP’s were excluded from a vote.”
I like the way you glissando from one argument to another, to try to overcome the obvious dissonance (i.e. the fact that the assertions make no sense when put together).
The Democratic candidate for President is the person who wins the majority of delegates. That is the game. That has always been the game. To pretend once it is inevitable that you’ll lose, that there is really some other game that should determine the winner, and if the winner doesn’t win that other game their win is deprived of any legitimacy, is what is technically known as being a sore loser.
So in fact, the analogy between the Democratic primary process and the ALP leadership would be between winning the ‘popular vote’ in the US (on whichever of at least 15 available definitions you prefer), and being the preferred ALP leader in polling among ALP sub-branch members– an interesting stat that makes no difference to the result of the game.
If the WA reps had been excluded for a breach of ALP Parliamentary Party rules, it was always known that they would have no vote and both combatants signed a declaration promising not to try to woo them as it was a fruitless exercise that would give undue legitimacy to their breach, and furthermore once it was shown that the lead that Rudd had over Beazley was larger than what B could have made up through the WA reps: then no, him taking leadership of the ALP in those circs would not have been deprived of any legitimacy.
It will all be sorted out on 31/5 in some way that will bring Michigan and Florida back into the loving arms of the DNC– and far from reviving HRC’s hopes, the result of FL and MI delegates will simply confirm that they were buried long ago.
And I would put the odds of aliens invading tomorrow as roughly equivalent to the odds of the one-eyed Hillary barrackers acknowledging what is blindingly obvious to any outside observer: if you are interested in determining a ‘popular vote winner’ for whatever reason, awarding Michigan to HRC by 328,000 votes to nil is an absurd joke.
CNN: Oregon 65% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Wasco + 12!!!
Codger
That poll has some interesting results. Obama leads in Hispanics (by 7%!), adults with no college education, they’re tied with white (as a whole) and she only leads by 3% with women? And a 3 to 1 advantage with the youth for Obama.
Surely its a rogue!
EC
#556
The Amigos decide what interchange bench we use , have a cappuccino
Notice you avoided my point and instead went crticsed the rodent. Your analogy was poor , don’t know whether intended to be an innuendo but you chose to ignore that invitation
And yes its ‘Obamabotic howardism thinking’ 1/ to pretend a disproportionately high 90%+ black vote (compared to all other voting blocs) has not supplied Obama with the delegate lead when it has 2/ not to dicuss the issue and 3/ for some of your matesto lie with racist allegations because these indesputable stats are bloged. That was the “howardism’ thinking ‘ method to avoid the truth
Obamabots practise ‘howardism thinking’ , its the FL ideology thats different
EsJ @ 568: It was, to appropriate the words of a man that some are fond of quoting, you who said it.
GG @ 572: A hit! A direct hit! My humble apologies. Although on current exchange rates it’s closer to $5, and your second sentence makes no sense in the context of the point that was being made.
Simon H – well happy to concede Michigan should not be counted in the pop vote total – otherwise dont accept your argument – dont give me your lawyers arguments – the people smell legitimacy, not unlike GWB was not legitimately elected but duly elected in 2000
Grace – well yes the break-in happened in 1972 but the really Watergate election was 1976 ie the first election after the resignation hence Carter was elected and then ditched with minimal regret four years later – this is the equivalent of a 76 in the US – BHO should win audacity and all.
CNN: Oregon 66% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Rock solid.
‘Surely its a rogue!’ Maybe. But Yo ho ho it’s alive, moving & changing…
The tension in Wasco is killing me.
The other thing that’s notable about the county is that Obama is currently just 81 behind McCain in absolute votes (both teams have 71% counted).
“The candidate who carries Wasco, carries the nation.” Discuss. (Actually, there might be something in that– the last time it got it wrong was 1988!)
585 ESJ
So it’s unreasonable for a party to have rules for votes that its members must follow?
Well Triton – ever heard of Old Sarum?
The Hillary Deathwatch hasn’t wasted any time updating its prognosis. Based on the KY and OR results they have docked Hillary a further 0.9 to send her plunging to the inky depths of 0.7%. They intend to dock her a further 0.1% for every 10 SDs that back Obama.
KY obviouly filled them with great optimism forHillary.
http://www.slate.com/id/2191796/
At the start of this race Hillary Clinton fully agreed with the DNC’s decision re Florida and Michigan and signed the declaration saying so.
Any Clinton supporter, please dispute this.
And HarryH BHO supporters urged voters in Michigan to vote for uncommitted.
ESJ
If they give Obama the ‘uncommitted’ vote in Michigan, wouldn’t this remove Clinton’s argument that she has a popular vote lead?
It would allow both Florida and Michigan back in, without altering the fact that BHO is the nominee.
Seems like a solution to me.
BAKER 51/49 for Obama
594 – No Yo Ho Ho – because Puerto Rico may have a 1 million turnout so if BHO concedes on this point Hillary will have in fact won the popular vote.
In KY, 28% of GOP voters went for ‘anyone but McCain’. That must be a worry for the GOP. I notice that Ron Paul is scoring 15% in Oregon.
What is it with those wascally Wascos?!
Right now, they’re the hottest ticket is Sep Psephdom.
Catrina, sprinkling a smidge of yeast on Baker, Bazza self-raises 31 votes.
CNN: Oregon 68% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Everyone on this blog knows that on May 31 Michigan will be split 69-59 Clintons way and Floridas result will stand but pledged delegates will only get half a vote.
This argument about Michigan and Florida is redundant.
Obama has won this race. And everyone will be put out of their misery soon.
Then Obama can go on to dispatch the Repugs to the dustbin they belong in.
HarryH at 600
I like a man who can tell it like it is.
WESCO 100% in, for Obama
Growler- you’re right!
I always forget about Latham.
clearly a psychological defence in an attempt to block out that horrible election from memory.
ESJ 585
1976 is not known as the Watergate election.
The Watergate election was the 1974 house election which returned 47 new democrats known as the young turks who significantly changed the operations of Congress, the Committee system etc.
woops – WASCO not WESCO
Wasco County, Oregon
‘As if it wasn’t enough that their ancestors had to face all the hardships of the Oregon Trail and pioneer life, Wasco County residents more than 100 years later found themselves facing a new challenge: the Rajneeshees. In the 1980s, this area once again made history, this time by fighting in the more civilized fashion that is favored today. Followers of the Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh moved in to the city of Antelope government, attempting a takeover by registering to vote homeless people brought in from outside the county and state. Rajneeshpuram was developed on 64,000 acres near the John Day River, and the Rajneesh followers renamed the town of Antelope to…Rajneeshpuram.’
http://www.historysavers.com/history.htm
‘The tension in Wasco is killing me.’ Hope this helps SimonH.
coger at 606
Relax, Obama has Wasco 1976 to 1915, 100% counted.
Grace,
Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon. It was a major issue in that election.
Grace,
Gerald Ford pardoned Nixon. It was a major issue in that election.
On his inauguration day next January, President Obama will be compelled to mention that it was the voters of Wasco County, Oregon, who gave him their imprimatur when he needed it most!
Well which is it Grace 1970, 1972, 1974 or 1976?
As Milhous said when the President does it its not illegal.
Hillary takes Sherman Country.
County!
This is not a send up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uROhNSsi79E
GG 609
I know that Ford pardoned Nixon – and it was Carter’s outsider status, in light of the corruption, that helped him to win the election.
But the “Watergate election” is known as the 2004 House election – which brought about significant changes in Congress and made Congress more effective against the Executive power of the President.
ESJ originally implied that Obama would lose the unloseable election and made an analogy with the Watergate election – which doesn’t stand up.
GG at 615
Neither is this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRATA2ypJ3c
ESJ,
The problem with the popular vote argument as raised by one of the CNN commentators today is that it’s subjective, rather than objective, as no one will ever know what the popular vote total is as Iowa, Nevada, Maine and Washington do not realise vote totals, just the numbers of County Delegates.
So I agree with what Poblano was saying on FiveThirtyEight.com yesterday:
CNN: Oregon 70% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Well, it turns out that Wasco– fascinating history and all– was a bit of a disappointment for O.
Sure, he beat HRC, but went down on the overall vote count to McC by 91. Whether this means that:
a) he’s doomed in November, or
b) he’s merely got a reminder that he has to get at least a moderate number of HRC supporters on-board to win,
we’ll have to wait and see.
But one thing is for sure: in November 2008, the world waits for Wasco.
SimonH at 620
Sure – but then you would be obliged to believe in the whole historical coincidences thing.
Seems Wallowa County (top right) has been swamped by a late flood of postals!
CNN:Oregon, 75% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
EC at 622
And locked in for Obama!
Actually they’ve altered it, when Oregon was on 75% counted, Wallowa had ~400,000 votes which the mouse over suggested was 50% of its total. Programer error obviously, but it gave one pause after a long day’s refreshing.
CNN:Oregon, 76% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Obama takes the county of Gilliam 184/148.
So anyone care to predict what the total delegate count for today will shake down at.
+66 to Hillary +58 to The Kid?
Plus supers of course.
dogb at 627/8
I’m working on the following:
Kentucky: 17/34
Oregon: 30/22
I.e.
Obama: gains 47 delegates
Clinton: gains 56 delegates
So that gives The Kid 1965 now? Have any supers dropped today? (I’ve been on the road mostly today and a bit out of it.)
Very very slightly off-topic:
Has it occurred to anyone else that maybe Obama should try to shore up the Libertarian but Confused Transgender vote, by selecting RuPaul as his running-mate?
Surely a proportion of the ‘The gummint ain’t gettin’ me guns!’ types wouldn’t realise he wasn’t Ron Paul.
No? I thought not.
LOL Simon.
Ignoring the three supers during the begging of the day (Clinton 1, Obama 2), I don’t expect any super traffic before the Oregon numbers are in and the slate is well defined on the majority question. That means waiting overnight while the numbers can be finalized.
I’ll be posting an update on the state of the numbers tomorrow (but just as a hint – the forward project on the pool versus required delegates generates some numbers that are politically interesting in terms of what could unfold in the coming week). Aside from that, my figures are showing Obama at 1967 and Clinton at 1778 total delegates.
CNN:Oregon 78% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
Clinton takes the county of Wheeler 114/109.
Thanks Catrina.
Can I just say that anyone who tries to argue that Michigan should count as a 330,000 to ZERO popular vote for Hillary over Obama has not the faintest shred of credibility? Yes I can, I just did.
In a democracy, you count votes for both candidates. I doubt that there is not a single person in Michigan who wanted to vote for Obama. This democracy thing been around as an idea for quite a while now and seems to be fairly well accepted. Even Saddam Hussein counted the votes for the opposition (and then had them tortured and killed).
Ru Paul….McCain would counter by nominating Rudy.
637
Diogenes Says: ….Even Saddam Hussein counted the votes for the opposition (and then had them tortured and killed).
Ixnay on the Ourturetay D,
You’ll give people ideas.
Hillary is subjecting the Democrat Party, and especially her supporters, to a Chinese Water Torture. There is nothing worse in the world than false hope.
Board Odds don’t lie. Only politicians and network marketers do.
Cbet latest:
President – WINNER
OBAMA, Barack 1.57
MCCAIN, John 2.65
CLINTON, Hillary 13.00
OK, Trios Amigos, care to hazard a guess as to why the market has gone so totally “Obamabotic”?
Maybe they’re just a bunch of sexist, Territorian, misogynistic, red-neck bastards and it’s got nothing to do with punters whacking down their hard-earned. Go ahead fellers, share with us here a little.
Re: Del. pick-ups in Ky and Or; imo HRC to pick up a net of 12 pledgees on the day, (SDs not included).
GG & FINNS (& any ObamaRealists interested)
MI and FL , for your info vs the Obamabots unsubstantiated one liners
On August 19, 2006, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) set the dates for the selection of delegates to the 2008 Democratic nominating convention as follows:
Iowa caucuses to hold no earlier than January 14, 2008 , BUT the DNC allowed Iowa to hold their Primary on 8th January thereby breaching their own DNC rules BUT the DNC imposed no penalty
New Hampshire primary to hold no earlier than January 22; (BUT the DNC allowed New Hampshire to hold their Primary on 8th January thereby breaching their own DNC rules BUT the DNC imposed no penalty (primary dates were also set for NV & SC)
The so called ‘pledge’: The major Democratic candidates all signed a DNC “pledge” to abide by DNC rules 7 not to campaign in FL or FL, and which penalized candidates who campaigned overtly in non-compliant states ie Michigan & Florida .The Iowa & New Hampshire DNC gun threat (& NV & SC) meant reprucussions for Hillary if she did not sign. The pledge had numerous loopholes; candidates could raise money in non-compliant states like MI & FL and weren’t required even to abide by the rules with any sanction. Candidates only, were not to campaign or participate in FL or MI
The pledge did NOT include Hillary’s or anyone elses agreement that MI or FL did NOT count for the Democrat Nomineeship. The allegations to the contrary are false (see attached pledge, it was a no campaigning/participating promise only, nothing about Ballot names)
http://www.fladems.com/page/-/documents/THREE_pledge_versions.pdf
Super Tuesday 2008 had 23 State Primarys , instead of the usual 4 States primarys , but a further 19 States in 2008 (making 23) for the first time brought their State Primarys forward (to give publicity attention to their own States). No penalty as there was no DNC breach but every State still changed dates for their State’s publicity advantage. . Remember IA & NH held their Primarys breaching the DNC rules but without the penalty MI or FL got
The DNC clearly lost control of all the States to do their own thing but selectively let IA & NH off , but not MI and FL. Commonsense would have been to let 2008 occur with no penalties to any State & for the DNC to wrest back control of all States dates before 2012
FACTS
1/ DNC did nort penalise IA or NH for the same offence
2/ DNC knew months in advance the MI & FL were going to occur and that a min of 2 million would vote
3/ All polling showed Hillary at 55%to 60% in bothMI & FL many months out
4/ FL Ballot: Obama’s name was on Fl ballot
FL campaigning: Obama ran TV campaign adds in FL (HRC didn’t)
http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/palm/blog/2008/01/controversial_obama_ad_running.html
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2008/01/obama_airs_nati.html
5/ MI Ballot: Obama’s name WAS on the MI ballot as well as on FL.. Subsequently Obama & Edwards themselves removed their names OFF the Ballot paper. They forced voters to vote for the “uncommitted voter” name listed on the Ballot (237,000 did ). Three other Dems candidates (Kucinich, Dodd & Gravel) left their own names ON the Ballot & got 25,000 votes
MI campaigning: Obama despite DNC rules after himself taking his name OFF the Ballot paper then actively campaigned in MI as well as FL and specifically campaigned for voters to vote for the “uncommitted voter” name on the Ballot
6/ In any event neither Hillary, Obama or Edwards signed any pledge agreeing that the MI (15/1) or FL (29/1) Primarys should not count for the nomineeship. Further Hillary on TV a week before Florida specifically stated they should count for the Nomineeship (, the pledge was a no campaigning/participation promise only)
http://www.fladems.com/page/-/documents/THREE_pledge_versions.pdf
7/ The MI & FL Primarys occurred as the DNC knew , over 2 million (2.3 million) voted as the DNC knew & predicted months earlier , and Hillary won both MI & FL by about 17% which all political pundits knew would occur
8/ The voting , registration , counting & scrutinering were all democratically performed, which has never been queried by anyone.A total of 2.3 million people voted (SA, NT & Tasmania combined)
9/ For 4 months the DNC have procrastinated , (their Chairman Dean, a factional ally of Obama) not only allowing Obama to be falsely portrayed as the delegate leader robbing Hillary of positive momentum in favour of Obama , but allowing an inequitable vote rort to continue ie removal of Hillary’ democratically won MI & FL delegates.
10/ A lower court has made a narrow judgment to support the DNC rules. A Supreme Cout challenge however on both equity and Civil Right grounds would not only be successful because of all States Super Tuesday’s States joining up, and due to IA & MH not being penalised but also re the fact that Courts will always rule in favour of 2.3 million exercising a democratic vote rather than penalising them in favour of incompetent backroom boys (as an aside the 9 member Supreme Court is 5 ‘right’ judges)
11/ A vote rort by exclusion , the effect of which is vote rigging because it advantages one Candidate significantly , irrespective of the DNC’s original reasons. And there are 17 million Hillary supporters not happy with being duded. MI & FL must be included making 2209 delegates required
Your comments
Enemy Combatant at 641
Good post!
642
Ron Says: …..Your comments
So basically what you’re saying is that if I was a person living in Michigan or Florida who decided (because I was told the votes wouldn’t count) not to bother voting then I don’t get a say at all.
Just want to know Ron. Yes or No.
CNN:Oregon 80% counted.
Obama: 58%
Clinton: 42%
But no changes at the county level worth mentioning.
D @ 637: To be fair, it was good of EsJ @ 585 to state that he agreed that Michigan could not be included in any fair count.
Unfortunately, that concession rather undercuts his earlier claim on the same page that “BHO is going to lose the popular vote”. Look at the fourth line on the RCP popular vote count. That is the best of the realistic vote-tally options for HRC. (As others have noted, there is no possible basis for counting Florida but not counting Iowa, Nevada, Washington & Maine… unless you’re just cherry-picking to try to skew the result.)
HRC is behind in it by 233,000 now including most of today’s results, with another 15 or 20,000 to lose as Oregon counting is finalised.
I’ll happily take the money off anyone who claims that the grand total of Puerto Rico, Sth Dakota and Montana will be a greater-than-250,000 gain for HRC.
Thanks, Catrina, actually HRC looks to have exhausted most of her vote . The Countys with significant numbers yet to report are predominantly ones where The Kid is ahead. Looks like a ~60/40 result when all votes are counted which is sensational for Team Barry in view of the high numbers of white working class voters in Oregon.
So much for Brutusina’s last desperate clutch at the straws of electoral sophistry.
Time now for The Dems to make nice. Plenty of back-slapping, mutual forearm-raising, pocket-p*ssing and glad-handling like there are no tomorrows. For the good of The Party, Working Families of America, and lest we forget, a slice of the spoils.
642 Ron
An interesting post. You have skimmed over one crucial phrase in the pledge which is “I pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any
election contest occurring in any state not already authorized by the DNC”. If you do not participate in an election, you cannot win it. Name me a single election which was won by someone who did not participate in it.
With the indulgence of all, I post Teddy Kennedy’s eulogy of his brother Robert. A very fine speech. My thoughts are with him and his family on the sad news re his health today.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9JTYnMpRyg
If i was Jerry Springer i would be very worried in a month or two.
Comin’ to a rootin tootin town near yu…it’s The Billary Show…with yer hosts Bill ‘n’ Hill….yeehawwwwwwwwwwwwww
Bad timing for my lighthearted post to follow a rare decent post from GG.
Sometimes an edit button would be handy.
642
Ron, the problem with the Democratic Party imposing a penalty on New Hampshire is that a state law requires the New Hampshire primary to be the first primary held in the nation. While this clearly gives a unfair advantage to New Hampshire voters over the voters in other states, it also means that the DNC could not punish the Democrats in New Hampshire, as they were simply doing what the law required them to do.
As to the campaigning in Florida, it is unreasonable to blacklist the nation’s national TV networks from political advertising due to the fact that a small part of the nation was not permitted to see it. Furthermore, there is also the problem of internet advertising. If advertising on national TV networks was banned, then you would logically have to ban any form of advertising that could be accessed by a large portion of the population banned from viewing it.
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/boondocks;_ylt=A0WTUfN43TNIcVcA1BsDwLAF
Ron@642
Interesting post. I will be interested in the outcome of the Supreme Court decision (irrespective of its composition, I think they’ll stick with a black letter interpretation), if only to compare it to Australian decisions (Clark vs ALP) comes to mind. If we followed Clark vs ALP, there would be the expectation that not only would FL & MI be penalised, but also IA & NH. Either way, it will be an interesting development in respect of party rules and how binding they are upon parties.
As to Obama vs Clinton, well, I’m a third-party supporter, but would prefer Obama. If I lived in the US I might be tempted to vote for Obama (in a state with an open primary, of course!), but if Hillary won the nomination then vote for my minor party candidate. If Obama won the nomination I might then consider a tactical vote for Obama against McCain. Not unlike the KY Democrats who are saying they voted for Clinton today, but if Obama is the Democrat Presidential nominee will be voting for McCain or not voting.
Don’t know if this makes an Obamabot/Obamarealist/Obamaanything!
GG at 649
Thanks for that.
Teddy Kennedy may be on his 76′th trip around the sun … but, what has happened, it really sucks – big time.
Greensborough Growler-
your thoughts for Kennedy remind me why we get so involved in all this political play.
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AkdGs6LajJUdICVDk5aTGNZT_b4F
EC at 657
No. It’s not going to happen!
Ron @642,
Excellent post and raises a lot of awkward questions for the poobahs who have allowed the farce to develop. The extent of Obama’s involvement is hard to ascertain, apart from being the beneficiary of some double standards and dodgy dealings.
Have you considered forwarding your research and comments to the Hillary camp because if they are not already across the issues, they would no doubt be interested.
Well done!
“Have you considered forwarding your research and comments to the Hillary camp because if they are not already across the issues, they would no doubt be interested.
Well done!”
Somebody help me, pur-leeeasze!!
EC,
With due respect, Ron’s post is a cracker.
GG at 661
Year, shame it’s not so altogether original.
That would be Yeah,, not Year,.
Catrina,
But, he certainly extends the substance of the debate by providing new information and insights (that I was unaware). In my view, this is a good thing.
If you want to obliterate his arguments, fill your boots. Afterall, that is what this site is allegedly about. But, you will need to be a bit more dilgent than what you have produced to date.
People enjoy your contributions as the semamphore of PB. However, if you want to be taken seriously, show some respect to different points of view.
GG
This is not new.
Marc Ambinder, September 2007 (for example)
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/michigan_democrats_blast_dnc.php#more
660
Enemy Combatant
I hope Possum left some spare tinfoil hats around, as Ron needs one to keep the gamma rays from converting him into an Obamabot.
Gruffy clearly needs one too, nah, on second thoughts it’s way too late for him.
What a load of dribbling rubbish! Send it to Hillary by all means, but at this stage of the game I think she’d prefer hard currency, preferably Euros.
What are you clowns ingesting?
663
Catrina
It feels like a ‘year’.
Nah, more like a decade! I’m waiting for the white coat brigade to come and round them up, (and then we can have their tinfoil hats! LOL)
Catrina,
Your focus should be on Ron’s post if you want to discredit the arguments profferred. I have already said that a lot of the substance was new to me. I am always happy to learn new things.
Help me out.
664
Greeensborough Growler
“If you want to obliterate his arguments, fill your boots.”
Ha! While you’re pissing in his pocket?
What a crack up you are Gruffy, giving your approval to this asinine twaddle as if you’d have a bleedin’ clue!
That takes the cake.
KR.
A wise man once posted.
“I have no idea what you’re talking about, which wouldn’t be the first time.
As for your insults, like I said, you are a complete nong.
THE END”.
GG at 668
I’m not in the least bit interested in commenting on Ron’s post. It’s the same old rehash of the talking points put out by the Hillary Campaign. My criticism was of your rather sily endorsemnt. And now you claiming enlightenment, which simply means you were not follow current affairs as all of this unfolded. I.e. I’m discrediting you in you endorsement of Ron. Ron doesn’t need discrediting, he’s doing that all by himself without the help of anyone else.
Catrina,
I guess that’s a no.
This takes the next cake:
Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight.
NYT
Next she’ll be telling us that the gamma rays were being beamed through TV sets and over radio stations and it making people vote for Obama by sending coded sexist messages.
We have entered the twilight zone with Capt Ron and trusty mascot Gruffy into an unexplored dimension of zero relevance to reality.
“People enjoy your contributions as the semamphore of PB.”
Why, Catrina, you have been so “tasked”. Ah’m so envious. Hope you feel suitably grateful.
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=A0WTUfN43TNIcVcA9BsDwLAF
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AoiV8vAQ1TTPS_N_pHrdDcPX.sgF
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AhgGiTj.ipxII1ySs2JRc18XvTYC
Kirri, hup two three four, hup two three four, you are to resume duties until relieved of your post. Carry on my good man. Will expect a detailed report upon my return:)
Nice quote Gruffy, I didn’t know you cared!
Kirri,
Recovered from the lunch time hangover?
GG 649
Nice post about Kennedy – as they said today in Crikey:-
“Though the White House eluded his grasp, Kennedy is considered one of the most effective legislators of the past few decades. He had major roles in passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, the Voting Rights Act of 1965, the 1990 Americans with Disabilities Act, the 1993 Family and Medical Leave Act, the Kennedy-Hatch Law of 1997 and two increases in the minimum wage. He endorsed Barack Obama for president before Super Tuesday’s primaries, support that was considered a boon for the candidate.”
I’m going to stick up for Ron and GG on this one (I’m starting to become an apologist for Hillary and her followers!). I hadn’t seen the original pledges and I understand it all better now. No-one on PB has looked into this matter properly. And coming from a legal background, I think I have been remiss in not looking at the letter of the law, given that I’m been shoving it down Hillary’s throat. I disagree with Ron’s conclusions but it’s an original and interesting contribution.
674
Enemy Combatant
Ecky, that last one, is that a coded message, as in: i-Ron-y,is it, eh?
Coz I’m overloading with it here man, I think we’re all going to need the tinfoil hats or this ‘reality is what I say it stuff’ is just going to fry our brains!
674 Enemy Combatant
But I only came hear to show my fiends that I really am an elitist.
In the meantime I’ll settle for the role of semamphore.
Diogenes at 678
If you go down that track you should follow-up on reviews undertaken on the Huff, which include the related letters between the parties, which add to the legal context though the expression of commitments. There is a lot of material out there if you want to dig.
Thanks Grace,
I heard excerpts from the speech today and I teared up listening to the last minute or so. A long time ago someone produced a recording of Love Sweet Love which was interspersed with speeches from JFK, MLK and Teddy’s eulogy about his brother Bobby. It was a great influence on a particular young person at that time.
I have no doubt, Teddy Kennedy’s endorsement put Obama where he is today.
Geez Diog – a lawyer as well as a doctor?? I should bow as you pass!
Has anyone else noticed that, while Obama was completelybelted by Hillary in Kentucky, The Kid still managed to score over 60,000 more Kentuckian votes than McCain???
What does this tell us?
FG,
That it was very good idea to keep the Primary process going?
683 Ferny
I’m a bush lawyer (I keep getting into trouble and can’t afford a full-time lawyer so I’ve had to learn bits myself). Both my parents and godfather are lawyers (and wife sort-of) so it’s seeped into me by osmosis.
681 Catrina
I’m onto it!
Hey Dio your not a Playford are you?
Ha Diogs. I guess I must have medical background cos I spent years working out what ails my kids. LOL
And I’m afraid I concur with my colleagues on the Michigan bench.
687 ESJ
That’s a definite NO, although I gather some relative was a Lord Mayor of Adelaide.
Back on track, and I swear I did not read this before my Nixon questions, the Huff Post has also been drawing parallels between McCain and Nixon. Perhaps I’m not as dumb as you lot keep telling me!
McCain: From McBush to McNixon?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-l-borosage/mccain-from-mcbush-to-mcn_b_102635.html
474
Jen Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 11:50 am
“Two-thirds of Clinton’s supporters there said they would vote Republican or not vote at all rather than for Obama, according to the polls.”
says it all really.
In other wrds if you want a Democrat in power ther is really only one choice – Looks like hillary has gone to the Other Side.
Well, very consistent with the Hillary supporters here. I think thenumbers are distorted by the fight, and that many more will cross over
Another take on Obama’s naivete.
http://blogcritics.org/archives/2008/05/18/202914.php
Andrew,
Your point is not clear. Please explain.
#642 – Ronnie, will response accordingly. just a little overload with work tonight. just a quickie (also enjoy a quickie)
Someone said earlier: “This takes the next cake: Mrs. Clinton has begun asserting that she believes sexism, rather than racism, has cast a shadow over the primary fight”
and who said this?
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4895145&page=1
There you go, more appeasement from the Obama camp.
GG at 691
You forgot to mention that author is – Dave Nalle – serving on the board of the Republican Liberty Caucus, as a GOP convention delegate, and running for State Representative in 2002.
Finns at 693
Don’t forget to mention the following:
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jg64HtQeTtsvLlKkcO5nx1glqldw
And this sad episode from Geraldine Ferraro
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/05/geraldine-ferra.html
Catrina,
I love it when I have stalkers. “Play Misty For Me” is one of my favourite movies.
Your a Lomax-Smith Dio?
Obama’s Iowa speech has some hypebole but also very indicative of his people approach. I suspect its a while since a Democratic Presidential nominee supported workers on picket lines.
Change is coming to America.
It’s the spirit that sent the first patriots to Lexington and Concord and led the defenders of freedom to light the way north on an Underground Railroad. It’s what sent my grandfather’s generation to beachheads in Normandy, and women to Seneca Falls, and workers to picket lines and factory fences. It’s what led all those young men and women who saw beatings and billy clubs on their television screens to leave their homes, and get on buses, and march through the streets of Selma and Montgomery – black and white, rich and poor.
Been out for hours , just scrolled , thank you to the 6 that commented
Ghostwhovotes
#652
“the problem with the Democratic Party imposing a penalty on New Hampshire is that a state law requires the New Hampshire primary to be the first primary held in the nation. It also means that the DNC could not punish the Democrats in New Hampshire, as they were simply doing what the law required them to do.
Then NH have always been in breach of their own laws as Iowa goes first. This year Iowa 3/1/08 and New Hampshire 8/1/08. Therefore as per your 2nd sentence the DNC could (not couldn’t) have & should have penalised
Diogenes
#648
Neither my first post nor this can adequately address the full legal arguments , however the context of the whole farce was the DNC wanting to protect IA & NH star attraction status for these 2 small states by not having TV adds & media following Dems Candidates to competing more important & more delegate rich MI & FL Primarys held around the same time ( and leaving IA & NH plus NV & SC as minors) Therefore the pledges were about adds , campaigning & participating in campaigning to ‘protect’ IA & NH relevance , with the sanction of FL & MI delegates ineligibility operative. The DNC could not stop FL or MI holding their actual Primarys on the dates they nominated otherwise they would have. The sanction of not accepting MI & FL delegates ‘elected’ at a DNC controlled Convention was a power of the DNC which they did utilise. But that is different to the DNC having power to prevent a Primary or to enforce having no names on a Ballot in these circumstances (and the DNC doesn’t) these are separate powers & rights. Nor could a pledge promise not to accept votes in a democratically held Primary election nor could it not have the delegates “counted” , and the pledge did not try to. So DNC’s only power in addition to their ineligiblity sanction was to coerce Candidates to sign a pledge that was full of loopholes re adds & campaigning/particpating in campaigning to help IA & NH with so many legal holes that even Obama drove a truck through. This had nothing to do with Candidates rights to “own” Candidates so “won” , but did activate the DNC for delegates so “won/elected” to prevent being made accreditied (but which under the Constitution is able to be challenged & under my research the DNC will very likely lose a Supreme Court challenge on both equity & especially Civil Rights grounds for the many reasons I did list. Just 10 seconds of commonsense by the DNC to let MI & FL off as they did IA & NH and as they also allowed 19 other States to ‘corrupt’ the historical timing sequence of State Primarys by them bring their dates also ALL forward , then fix all 50 States with agreed rules & sanctions (& legally enforcable) before 2012 but that perhaps is a laymans view
Stewart J
#654
Appreciate you bringing up case of Clark vs ALP as if I had that would have been the diversion of some. Yes , that would follow IA & NH also being penalised However as they were not & their Primarys have been held with all the consequences of same & for the Candidates, a retrospective move now would not be now considered ( a lawyers delight there) meaning the FL & MI case just gets made even stronger but itsalready overwhelming under numerous grounds
Thanks for your views and answering your question you’re the reverse to an Obamabot
GG
#659
thanks GG , Apart from the legal & orther grounds I listed one would have thought ALP principles of a ‘fair go’ are not understood by some, even when 2.3 million people come to vote , get their names ticked off , go to a private place to vote , others count the 2.3 million votes , they get scrutineered all OK , all done strictly per the US legal voting requirments and one wins both by 17%…… lattee equity. Also thanks for demolishing those knockers , the one liner tulips
the 5th was Obama
His silence , …again , as with the Pastor for 20 years sitting silently whilst privately disagreeing , Obama’s new style politic standards are appaling , he should have supported the delegates inclusion on equity from day one , apart from his heavy involvement in both MI & FL chasing votes. Also Obama not too clever , if he won the Nominee in this tainted way it allows McCain another point plus anothernot clever….p…off MI which was safe Dems but presently is line ball
FINNS
#693
I agree with your second line post , also the Obama weakness & inexp.
#695 – Catrina with a C, you should do more of this:
I see trees of green, red roses, too,
I see skies of blue, clouds of white,
The colors of the rainbow, so bright up in the sky,
Are also on the faces of people passin’ by.
I see friends shakin’ hands, sayin’, “How do you do?”
They’re really sayin’, “I love you.”
and dont sleep in the subway.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=VQk2LtK680w
Nice post Finns.
GG at 692, when trying to get a commitment from supporters eg. Finns of Obama v McCain, I was called a stalker and a parrot. The exit polls have shown a higher % of Obama supporters willing to support Hillary v McCain than vice versa. I think it’s safe to say that virtually all Obama supporters here would support Clinton v McCain, the same cannot be said of the Clinton supporters supporting Obama v McCain
ESJ
No but I do know her (she taught me pathology). She’s a nice lady and very clever too but not much of a politician.
It looks like Nixonland by Perlstein will be better than those hagiographies about Nixon you recommended to me (seriously, how can Conrad Black have any credibility except as an apologist for ugly politics and win at all costs). Perlstein looks on the mark about Nixon and possibly McCain.
{And, with majorities of Americans desperate for change and lined up against McCain on war, economy, health care, McCain will have little choice but to reprise the Nixon strategy of running a campaign based upon cultural identity, seeking to appeal to Nixon’s “silent majority,” in Perlstein’s words the “values voters, people of faith, patriots” in contrast to the “liberals, cosmopolitans, the intellectuals, the professionals…who look down on the first category as unwitting dupes.”}
Andrew
Here’s one Obama supporter who wouldn’t swing over to Hillary.
If it was a Clinton v any Republican, my interest would be zero.
Dio
You reckon the “values voters” and “people of faith” are enamoured with McCain?
and dislike Obama?
in overwhelming numbers?
Me too. I’d vote for the Nadman.
Andrew,
It is finally, good you have a put a view rather than just endorse or reflect others.
What you write about is precisely the problem Obama has going forward if he were fortunate enough to win the Democratic nomination.
The increase in participation in the process is the overwhelmingly positive aspect of this campaign. However, there is a clear split about those who would support Hillary and not Obama and the demographics are prety clear who these people are.
I have no qualms in saying, that at this point Obama is not for me. If I were eligible then, I would be a elector who would either not vote or possibly support McCain.
This position may change, but it will depend how Obama embraces Hillary’s electorate.
Cheers
HH
Dunno but I’ve got a feeling we are gunna to find out. What else has he got going for him?
Just where did we go wrong?
In a new series, Blogs of Our Lives, we re-visit some gems. Today, as we look back at some of Ron’s gems, only a few months ago, we ask ourselves: just where did we go wrong?
Ron Says:
January 29th, 2008 at 11:59 pm
The Clintons (the Clantons) are looking more like the Beverley Hillbillies every day
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 11:01 am
Has the media wound up the Public on the Obama oratory and the dislike of Hilary.
As of right now , what does Obama believe in
#
38
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Well the US is the land of law suits so IF Obama is in front of Hilary at the convention by the difference in the florida delegates each ‘notionally’ won,
the lawyers eyes would be gleaming
119
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 6:04 pm
Both Hillary & Obama have weakness’s & in my view not great candidates
#
131
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
KR hope u are not referring to our resident closet Lib Edward Toff as we allow Glen in & so we should the barbarians
#
139
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
KR , yes ‘pompous’ is such a delightful description of the Toff that pompous should be a preceding adjective. Many thanks.
#
160
Ron Says:
January 30th, 2008 at 9:57 pm
Coulter represents the discard from the wanabe feminists
A perfect dinner date for pompous Toff sneaking in the background like a virus
Must be hard everyday to realize Howardism has gone
#
959
Ron Says:
February 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm
No we have renewed faith in the Polls now that Obama is ahead
Whereas seriously the traditional betting agency odds have always been useless re Clinton vs Obama yet some quote them I don’t know why
Obama’s odds were always ridiculously over the odds at 7/2 which have never reflected his chances but merely the ‘book’ on Clinton
..so you must be laughing KR at the the odds u got KR on Obama
…and that was our Ron, before one day he forgot to wear his tinfoil hat, and then the gamma rays got to him, and well, sadly, it was all down hill from there. The posts got longer, the syntax actually got worse, and the Ron we knew just faded away.
Where did we go wrong?
707
Gruffy:”if he were fortunate enough to win the Democratic nomination.”
You really need to learn to pay attention, Gruffy. She has lost, and no amount of ‘ifs’ are going to change that.
My goodness, and then you’re trying so hard to sound intelligent too!
KR,
Relevance Deprivation Syndrome has clearly set in.
That’s more like the Kirri we all know and love – I was beginning to worry you are suffering from some kind of existensial nagging self-doubt.
Dio
If he tries that Nixonland stuff he will flounder like a beached whale.
That shit don’t fly in the age of the internet.
Conservatives just haven’t come to grips with the power of the net and haven’t adjusted there playbooks one iota. And this is proof of that.
After Sep 11 they had a very real scare tactic to play and it worked.
Now they are standing naked before the electorate with not a fig leaf in sight.
Daily Kos estimates Obama is about 60 delegates short of winning the nomination
New Reuters Poll: Obama with a huge lead over Hillary, and he leads McCain by 10 points:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/21/73639/7230/160/519521
ESJ,
Wasn’t it KRartes who said, “I think, therfore I am a dickhead”.
She’s channeling:
“I think a lot of women project their own feelings in their lives on to me,” Clinton has said.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10509_Page2.html
…so it’s really not about numbers of delegates, it’s almost supernatural, it’s her ‘feeling’ their ‘feelings’.
It’s gooey, but it just ain’t the way the Democratic party chooses a nominee.
Speaking of channeling, I wonder what advice Hillary has been getting from Eleanor Roosevelt lately.
Eddy, “sneaking in the background like a virus” are you?
I think Ron had you pegged very succinctly, didn’t he?
716
Ferny Grover
Dunno, but she was getting plenty from Karl Rove for a while there! I notice she’s behaving herself now that she’s got to leave the stage soon, collect her pay and then start stumping for Obama.
I wonder who’ll be suffering “Relevance Deprivation Syndrome” then, eh?
Oh Kirri – 718,
Such misplaced anger, dont worry no one will be bothered to unearth your earlier turds.
GG – I worry about our Kirri, with the meglamaniacal predictions of financial doom I have visions of a frustrated bank assistant branch manager who has never quite cracked it for that promotion to manager.
HarryH,
I don’t want to prick your balloon or anything, but a reality test might be in order.
1, There are people alive today in this country who live in houses with earthen floors.
2. In my life time there has been the introduction of all manners of technological change e.g. televison, computers, fm radio etc.
3. During these times conservative Politicains e.g. Republicans have sailed on unrelentingly.
The internet is going to change this?
Evidence please.
Galloping to the finish line:
According to a Gallup daily tracking poll released Tuesday, her foundation of support is cracking: “Having previously captured nearly the maximum level of support from black voters, Obama’s latest gains have come from a broad spectrum of rank-and-file Democrats. At least for now, he has expanded his position as the preferred candidate of men, young adults and highly educated Democrats, and has erased Clinton’s advantages with most of her prior core constituency groups, including women, the less-well-educated and whites.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10509_Page2.html
ESJ,
Mate, I tried to book a cave for the family holiday this year and they were all taken.
Dio,
P Adams on LNL tonight doing something on Frost’s Nixon interview
In case you’re interested.
Of course BHO as nominee will get at least 45% of the vote – after all so did Mark Latham its the other 5%+1 Kirri that counts, ie you need a majority in a democracy unless of course you are running for the Democratic nomination for President.
720
Edward StJohn
Don’t fret Toff, no anger at all, but lot’s of mirth.
Yes GG its bring out the dead time.
Diogenes,
Hagiography that hurts – the Black book on FDR was excellent, he was broadly positive about FDR.
i’ll let you figure it out Growler.
btw can you point me to any of the millions of bloggers out there’s latest piece in a newspaper or television or radio show?
didn’t think so.
the millions of William’s are keeping the bastards honest.
god bless Al Gore.
721 GG
I’d love to see some good evidence or even opinion about how the internet, esp Youtube and blogs, have affected politics other than via influencing the MSM. I suspect that we overestimate it given our hobby.
Still, the popular political videos on Youtube can get 2M plus views so there is potential. But most Hillary supporters can’t read evidently so I can’t see the HuffPo changing their minds. I suspect it’s still TV and radio more than anything that requires reading.
HarryH,
It is nice we are corresponding in an insensible way.
But, talk to me so I can respomd.
NFI.
#715 – [Wasn’t it KRartes who said, “I think, therfore I am a dickhead”] – GG, no,no, no, as the Man from the Showy River, the old Clangsy: “For both his horse and he are mountain bred”.
Diogenes,
I have never seen anyone change their mind unless they wanted to.
Cheers.
728 ESJ
From the New Yorker, I rest my case.
Black, attempting a reconsideration of his subject, merely provides an exculpatory gloss for seemingly every grimy facet of Nixon’s career. He presents the 1968 “Southern strategy” as a principled stand against Northern hypocrisy. On Vietnam, his invocations of “insolent” Communists, their “witless dupes,” and “child grenade carriers” (as he refers to those murdered at My Lai) take on a deranged air; he unwittingly provides an object lesson in the kind of thinking that mired America there. Interestingly, given what Black refers to in the acknowledgments as his own “serious judicial problems,” he argues that Nixon’s best move in Watergate would have been to surreptitiously delete damaging parts of the tapes and then make up a cover story—”whatever he wanted.” Hoping to be Nixon’s redeemer, Black comes off as his apologist.
The Mighty Finn!
And this was what William B had to say about you:
419
William Bowe Says:
January 31st, 2008 at 11:58 pm
KR, how can you be so sure he’s not just an idiot? It seems pretty plain to me that he is
…looks like you got noticed for great contributions, eh Finn?
GG and Dio
do you not think the internet is having an effect on politics?
do you think Obama would be where he is today without the internet? without MoveOn, Huff Po,Kos, Youtube etc? without BarackObama . com and its hundreds of millions of dollars raised?
Oh well…that’s your perogative.
as your good friend Eddy said in 725 GG “it’s the 5% +1 that counts”.
KR, it’s time you learn that everyone is an idiot, including you. lol
That’s it Kirri let the rage course through your veins, take it out on all those who have always doubted your obvious genius and power – they will pay for slighting and tormenting you eh?
KR: I’m listening to Phillip Adams right now! Interesting discussion on Nixon.
KR,
Living in the past, when his contributions were valued.
So sad.
Dio,
Nixon would not have regarded the New Yorker as objective about him
Another who would never support Clinton.
Mind you, I’m a right wing fascist, despite Jen’s best efforts to persuade me otherwise…
I’ve been consistent with that statement all year though, so that’s hardly groundbreaking news.
As you all were…
733 GG
That’s true to some extent but there are a huge number of ways to influence peoples thought patterns, hence the power of advertising and spin and plain-old propaganda. And there must be some unopinionated people (not here obviously) who could sway either way.
736 HH
I have an open, but sceptical, mind on the matter. I’d love to know. William is an expert on this stuff isn’t he?
#740 GG, enjoy
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=8j7RDvpCcFI
Diogenes,
You have never met my father in law.
ESJ
“Nixon would not have regarded the New Yorker as objective about him.”
We could always ask Hillary to find out from Eleanor Roosevelt during their next seance. I’m sure those political spirits hang out together.
725
In concept in a democracy folk need a majority of the vote to be elected. But iost countries have psuedo democratic voting systems where a it is a majority of delegates or seats that determine the winner. So 45% of the vote would be plenty in many elections.
699
Ron, Iowa going first does not contravene New Hampshire’s state law as it requires New Hampshire’s parties to hold the nation’s first primaries, while Iowa holds caucuses.
Finns,
Love those harmonies. Also couldn’t resist the connection to Love Hurts.
Oldies, but goodies.
Dio
How could you possibly doubt that there is NO WAY Obama could be where he is today without the internet.
You are way too aware and intelligent to believe otherwise.
Adding to my post (748)
“State of New Hamsphire Revised Statutes, TITLE LXIII, Chapter 653
653:9 Presidential Primary Election. – The presidential primary election shall be held on the second Tuesday in March or on a Tuesday selected by the secretary of state which is 7 days or more immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election, whichever is earlier, of each year when a president of the United States is to be elected or the year previous.”
A ’similar election’ is another primary, open or closed. A caucus on the other hand is considered to be different to a primary and so Iowa going first does not violate New Hampshire law.
716 Kirri
“I think a lot of women project their own feelings in their lives on to me,” Clinton has said.
It’s one of the things that initially turned me off Hillary was this faux ‘I’m Everywoman” baloney. She was the First lady of the USA for 8 years for f’s sake – hardly a woman who has struggled to get to the top.
Like her southern drawl, sniper dodging and bourbon- swilling it’s all BS.
Which is such a shame – i would love to see a worthy woman as POTUS.
Stepping aside, for a minute, from the endless “playful banter”, it strikes me that the discussion is continually warped by a misplaced attempt to draw analogies from Australian politics. We forget that in a normal US election only about 30% vote. Karl Rove won two elections by pursuing a strategy that would make no sense to Australians. The “Reagan Democrat” thing is easily understandable because it sounds like “Howard’s Battlers”. But Rove’s play to the base strategy makes no sense with compulsorary voting. It would be pointless in Australia because it would involve targetting the most rusted on of the rusted ons. Why bother?
But in the US, you can expect the target group to behave like the rest of the population and normally have a 30% turnout. If you can increase that to 50% then that can make a crucial difference in a close race. Take the African American vote. They may only be 7% of the electorate. But if Obama can increase their turnout from 30% to 80% then that’s a 3.5% swing to the Democrats. If he can work a similar magic on the youth (a much larger group whose normal turnout is well below 30%) then he can piss off all the Appallachian “bitters” he likes. (BTW I’m not saying he’s going to do it – simply that it might happen).
An example of this sort of thing springs to mind from Britain. Neil Kinnock got MORE votes in 1992 than Blair in 1997. The difference was that the Tory vote collapsed, not that there was great enthusiasm for New Labour. In fact there was a great example from 1991 of a bye-election which the British Labour Party were supposed to win but didn’t. They were desperate to appear moderate and gain the middle ground by not advocating non-payment of poll tax. In the end there vote was LESS in the bye-election than the numbers not paying the tax!
So k/r becomes my 4th Parrot , the irrelevance , with brain & vital parts match the midget.
Whilst I told Parrot number 2/ BoysLeswit , because I supported Obama from late Jan to end Feb approx , only a d….head would think I did not make positive remarks about Obama & negative to her supporters. Because I’m honest unlike the sqeemish little man you are , I’ve freely admitted this here in ,any blogs & had the honesty to say I changed sides & why in blogs , so my Amigos already know I found out the truth about Obama later than them that Obama was a phony , a liar on message, has no ticker , anti white (read his book) , has close personal AND political friends with the terrorist Ayers , the divisive Wright , the corruption charged Rezko , maniac Nation of Islam founder Louis Farrakhan ,sold out his whole black race at Philly to save his political hide and then sold out his grandmother etc.
Whilst many of k/r’s quotes are out of context, lets deal with some:
Ron January 30th, 2008 As of right now , what does Obama believe in.
Ron: a good question I put !
Ron :January 30th, 2008
Well the US is the land of law suits so IF Obama is in front of Hilary at the convention by the difference in the florida delegates each ‘notionally’ won,the lawyers eyes would be gleaming
Ron: well I was right 4 months in advance wasn’t I !!!
Ron January 30th, 2008 Both Hillary & Obama have weakness’s & in my view not great candidates
Ron: Still think so. I always preferred Gore. Have bloged this many times !
Ron:January 30th, 2008 at 7:47 pm ‘pompous’ is such a delightful description of the Toff that pompous should be a preceding adjective.
Ron: I was referring to EJ. The pompous toff , the virus sneaking around.
I called ESJ that many times & he TLC’s in return. BUT k/r what you do not know is ESJ and I still had many debates because I respected his cleverness & he respected an ALP layman debating philosophical ALP principles against Liberal ones & ESJ relished the opportunity in a civil way.So I could insult ESJ within reason & get away with it because I respected him. Whereas I do not respect you so I insult you not within reason
Ron January 30th, 2008 at 9:57 pmCoulter represents the discard from the wanabe feminists
Ron: I was and still am rif\ght about her !!!!
Ron February 3rd, 2008 at 11:42 pm Whereas seriously the traditional betting agency odds have always been useless re Clinton vs Obama yet some quote them I don’t know why. Obama’s odds were always ridiculously over the odds at 7/2 which have never reflected his chances but merely the ‘book’ on Clinton
Ron: a true statement. If you knew anything about bookmaking you’d know I
was right
BUT BUT the corker K/R 1402 !!!!
k/r May 18th, 2008 “I’ve only just realised that 538.com is in fact Poblano, one and the same.. Slow, or what?”
Ron: “slow” k/r , you got that right. Everyone on PB been talking about it for 3 days whilst you were live. I’d even had a long debate with Possum over it. Then another long debate with Diogenes over it
Perhaps slow is too kind. You really are an irrelevant deficent d….head
Max- have never thought of oyu as a fascist.
am now up to series 5 of the West Wing – cheers!
(have to say the parrallels are positively spooky – synchronicity, or else these guys are just following the script).
More Ron, I see.
Like I said, more verbiage, less syntax, and Ron, don’t forget the tinfoil hat mate, the gamma rays, they’re out there, sending signals, you’d better be careful.
Just watched the episode where a senator (can’t remember his name) changed from Democrat to Repug because he didn’t get what he wanted –
say no more.
752
Jen
Quite agree, ’tis a pity she’s a bore! (To change a quote a teensy bit). I’ve never had any problem accepting women in power, and probably who’d have settled for Clinton except that Obama is so much more appealing.
I guess there’s some matters of taste involved, but it can’t be missed that Hillary’s appeal is mainly to the poorer, less educated whites. I wonder why? LOL
757
Jen
Lieberman, I think.
make that ‘would have’ in 758…long day.
“anti white (read his book) , has close personal AND political friends with the terrorist Ayers , the divisive Wright , the corruption charged Rezko , maniac Nation of Islam founder Louis Farrakhan, sold out his whole black race at Philly to save his political hide and then sold out his grandmother etc.”
That’s the essence of it isn’t it Ron? Do you play the banjo by any chance?
Robert
#753
Last time I replied to one of your challenges of you’re a socialist & playing the ‘red’ card so does your silence mean you still think and if so can it continue or does it mean an Obambot can also be a socialist or are you just a simple St Albans guy using a wok
Turnouts among other factors depend on organization & passion. The opposite to Obama’s group is the Repugs reacting to the possibility of a black as POTUS particularly in the South. perhaps also the Pastoers racially divisive you tubes videos distributed may get some turnout. Then the pastors anti US videos (you’ll love that) And Religion , a ’sport’ in the US like footy & cricket in ‘oz’ and we have Obama’s twin mates Nation of Islam founder Louis Farrakhan plus Rev Wright to inspire the zealous clergy to prevent such infidels mentoring the POTUS. Fun for all
Not sure about the banjo, but he plays the village idiot extremely convincingly!
Ron, your last post is not in any language known to man. It uses the same alphabet as the one English speakers use, but there the similarity ends.
I keep telling you Ron, it’s the gamma rays, and you’re not wearing your tinfoil hat, are you mate?
Ron,
The “running dogs” of rant are poleaxed.
From Bloomberg:
Billionaire investor George Soros says a chain reaction of failures in the swaps market could trigger the next global financial crisis….
The market is unregulated, and there are no public records showing whether sellers have the assets to pay out if a bond defaults. This so-called counterparty risk is a ticking time bomb.
“It is a Damocles sword waiting to fall,” says Soros,…“To allow a market of that size to develop without regulatory supervision is really unacceptable,” Soros says…..
The Fed bailout of Bear Stearns on March 17 was motivated, in part, by a desire to keep that sword from falling, says Joseph Mason, a former U.S. Treasury Department economist….
…just in case anyone gets fooled by the likes of Gruffy and Fast Eddy
Night fellas -
I’ll leave you to your nightly scuffle.
Maybe PB is becoming the OZ web equivalent of FightClub. in which case I’d like to know who is Brad.
yes GG ,
and my last quote came right from k/r’s blog on himself. He called himself ’slow’
Now I think about it GG , k/r was wrong again , ’slow’ is far too generous for this little man , you are aware how short k/r is don’t you , people call him dwalfy and it relates not only to his height but also the size of his mind & vitals…thats why he takes his real life precious frustrations out on a keyboard
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Poll Date Sample Obama (D) McCain (R) Spread
RCP Average 05/07 – 05/19 — 47.3 42.8 Obama +4.5
Reuters/Zogby 05/15 – 05/18 1076 LV 48 40 Obama +8.0
Gallup Tracking 05/15 – 05/19 4464 RV 47 44 Obama +3.0
Rasmussen Tracking 05/16 – 05/19 1600 LV 43 46 McCain +3.0
Quinnipiac 05/08 – 05/12 1475 RV 47 40 Obama +7.0
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 – 05/11 1122 A 51 44 Obama +7.0
POS/GQR 05/07 – 05/08 800 LV 48 43 Obama +5.0
These are the latest polls on RCP.
Dontcha just love the Fox News pollster of choice Rasmussen. God love em.
Scott Rasmussen better stop being an exclusive “fox News contributor” if he wants his credibility to stand up.
768
HarryH
Give it a few weeks after Shrill has done her victory lap and left the stage, and see what the numbers look like then.
Bring it on, as the Idiot Decider said.
Ron #762 How can I reply to your first sentence Ron? I know we all rib you about your syntax and that may sem a bit nasty – but this sentence is COMPLETELY meaningless. What can I say? Yes I am a socialist. I live in St Albans, though I like to think I’m not simple. I possess a wok – but it’s usually my lovely wife who uses said implement being herself of the Asian persuasion. Who’s playing the “red card” – me or you (mangled syntax you see)? And what does that mean, anyway – a soccer term?
Regarding the turnouts. You think the pastor will get the juices pumping in the Repub base. The evidence would appear to be that, for all that the Reverend Wright has left a scar on your singular psych he was a one-week wonder in the US. As for Farrakhan – Wright said one or two nice things about him and Hillary’s main Pennsylvania supporter sucked up to him big time, but there’s no connection between him and Obama. So, apart from your obvious fear of incendiary black preachy types, I can’t see the point.
My point about turnout, which you’ve at least tried to answer with sentences which I can decipher, is historical. I see 2004 as a parallel with 1928 when Al Smith began reconstructing a new Dem coalition by engaging the immigrant workers in the Northeast to add to the Dems then traditional southern base. He was matched by a Repug mobilisation against Smith’s Catholicism. By 1932 the ground had shifted and “culture wars” weren’t enough to hold back the tide. WE haven’t had a depression. But there has been a failed war and there is a recession. There has also been (ironically) a benefit of growth in some places. Virginia, parts of Texas, the Carolinas have grown economically and grown in a way that requires college education. So the recession will deliver votes to the Dems and, in some places, the last 1 1/2 decade of growth will also deliver votes.
But I know you’re scared of the scary black preacher for some reason I can’t quite fathom. It’s yesterday’s story Ron. Chill out and buy a wok.
Ron, I didn’t know you spoke Welsh!
“dwalfy”, is that a Welsh term of endearment?
I do love it when you try to be insulting Ron, it’s even funnier than when you try to write in English!
just checked the delgate numbers –
Obama on 1957 . It’s not too far to 2026 now.
(how long can she drag this out???).
If anyone wants to know why the Republicans would be taken off the shelf if they were dog food.
President Bush Job Approval
Poll Date Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 05/08 – 05/17 30.0 66.3 -36.3
Rasmussen 05/11 – 05/17 32 66 -34.0
Quinnipiac 05/08 – 05/12 28 67 -39.0
Gallup 05/08 – 05/11 29 66 -37.0
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 – 05/11 31 66 -35.0
If anyone wants to know why Hillary’s “experience” and “ready to lead on day 1″ message sunk like a stone.
Congressional Job Approval
Poll Date Approve Disapprove Spread
RCP Average 05/07 – 05/12 18.7 75.0 -56.3
Quinnipiac 05/08 – 05/12 16 76 -60.0
Gallup 05/08 – 05/11 18 76 -58.0
POS/GQR 05/07 – 05/08 22 73 -51.0
If anyone wants to know why Obama’s “change” message is working and who will be the next President.
Direction of Country
Poll Date Right Direction Wrong Direction Spread
RCP Average 05/01 – 05/11 15.3 81.0 -65.7
Gallup 05/08 – 05/11 14 85 -71.0
ABC News/Wash Post 05/08 – 05/11 16 82 -66.0
POS/GQR 05/07 – 05/08 16 80 -64.0
LA Times/Bloomberg 05/01 – 05/08 15 77 -62.0
Please rush the following order to:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton
C/- Slate Deathwatch
Washington Post
Washington D.C. USA
http://www.jollyroger.eclipse.co.uk/H.H.Diver2.JPG%20TN30.jpg
EC – I think she needs a submarine actually.
777
Jen
I thought you were going to bed?
Ron @ 762
“just a simple St Albans guy using a wok”
Ron, you’re a poet and you don’t know it!
A St Albans wokker, eh? The number of interpretations inspired by this one line is mind-boggling. (Plus, it’d be a great name for a play about the scarily obsessive yet ultimately unrewarded love a St Albans wok handler has for the presidential hopeful carved into his cooking sticks.)
*smile*
KR rocks!
Ecky, I’ve been holding the fort, the kiddies tried to run feral, but I found some old things for them to read, which seemed to make them very hyperactive for a bit! LOL
It’s been fun, though, and I’ve even picked up some Welsh!
Jen at 755
There was an article I read which detailed meetings between Axlerod and the producers of the West Wing during planning stages and they were discussing the issues of a racially distinct candidate within a primary season. I.e. Santos was modeled in part on Obama.
Ron,
What you say, takes me somewhere I don’t want to go. The easy thing is to ignore or pretend I did not read your post. But, the fact is I have.
One of the things I love about the site is the anonymity. Therefore, I have been scathing in my posts on people that have inside information on fellow posters and publish it.
KR is a professional pain in the arse but, I have no problem with that. I agree that you have been pilloried unrelentingly by the allegedly open minded contributors on this site and that is unfair. I have tried to balance it out and share the load.
However, we all have a choice about whether we play or not. In the end PB is a vehicle for good. So, let us not judge people on this site by how they look, spell, or syntax but by how they contribute.
780
Catrina
*blush*
aw, shucks!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/21/barackobama.uselections2008?gusrc=rss&feed=networkfront
I read that too Catrina. Axelrod was a consultant on the script. I wonder now if he deliberately planted the idea of Santos in order to prepare the way for Obama’s run. If he did then he’s a cunning little bugger.
G’night all – I’ll have some new numbers up in the morning.
KR- I was, but thought i’d have glass of wine instead.
Catrina- haven’t even got up to him yet, so am looking forward to that part. Even so, the parallels are still quite extraodinary.
Robert
#770
“I know we all rib you about your syntax and that may seem a bit nasty.”
I Realize the lattee sipping ‘pretend left wing’ politically correct intellegentsia set of elitist did so , but always thought the socialists did not highlight languaguage dyslexia perhaps I’m wrong.
I have reasearched most Primary’s exit polls plus a number of National Polls .The Catholics have overwhelmingly voted agianst Obama , don’t think its Obama’s skin , think the Pastor did influence. you believe the Pastor is not a big issue , but it shows up in almost all exit polls even though its gone from the fish & chips papers, so yes i think it will affect white turnout particulaly in the South plus Obama’s skin.You may dismiss Farrakhan & Wright , however the religous ‘right’ can be zealous and they represent a point of difference fom a Kerry. I feel you under etimate the passion the Pastor generated in making whites feel guilty publicly , people don’t like that & remeber it. Agree the economy downturn will hurt people but McCain can blame the Dems control of Congress since 2006 of which Obama was allegedly( by McCain) a leader. Then you got the ‘bitter’ people , the working class you call rednecks or hamburgers or whatever from OH right accross the US and if McCain plays ‘bitter’ enough cleverly again people can get motivated by anger or outrage
Obama has created most of this resentment himself & at the minimum created the opening for its overt & covert use to kobilise turnout against th inevitable hip hop college set unless there’s a party on on election day
My opening sentence was your assertion I used the ‘red card’ and ‘you’re a socialist’ , so you’re wrong’ and I replied I do not as my comments were to Obamabots & any understanding you had otherwise was misplaced. Think I got synntax’s right whatever they are
Wine finished.
Night all.
“I have tried to balance it out and share the load.” – Gruffy
…oh help, me sweet Jesus, I’ve died and gone to blogger’s heaven! LOL
But, lo, redemption and forebearance:
“KR is a professional pain in the arse but, I have no problem with that.”
I am humbled with gratitude for your magnanimous concession Gruffy, just hold on a second while I wipe a tear…
Night Jen.
Do you think the base is energised?
Front page link off RCP
http://www.humanevents.com/rightangle/index.php?id=28839=3title=the_08_gop_no_rhythm_just_bluesmore=1c=1tb=1pb=1
GG, In defence of Ron. I volunteered the info about living in St Albans a while ago (it was in response to a rave by Ron about latte sipping or something). Also I have a principled thing about not being anonymous which I don’t impose on others but guides me. That’s why I post under my real name. Though I never admitted to wok use. I wonder how he found out about that?
Some people “just know” of others’ wok use. Ron is one of the chosen.
GG
k/r is a professional pain in the arse . He reminds me of the little school bully that when challenged runs to the teacher. Therfore I assume he is small in height because some short people take that frustration out on others. As for his brain I assume its little. As for his vitals , his mouth & ears again assume similarly little but flapping madly. Frankly wasn’t implying anything else about this pathetic person but perhaps been better worded , k/r whose sole contribution for months is sniper & irrelevant posts disrupting often intelligent discourse between opposing sides
793
Classic stuff HH:
Were it not for the damage that one-party Democrat rule would do to this country, most conservatives would be quite happy to sit this election out and see the GOP come to ruin. The right is, at bottom, not terribly saddened by the GOP’s recent electoral woes; after years of elected Republicans lying to the conservative base, one can’t be surprised when the base sheds few tears over the party’s collapse.
… what about the “damage” eight years of the Imbecile and his merry band of Neocons have wrought?
Does this thickheaded moron honestly believe the Democrats could do a worse job?
This is tiresome codswallop, but so nice to see them hating themselves! LOL
KR,
Read what I wrote.
Would you be as magnanimous, if you found out I had a physical imperfection?
Nah Ron, I just stick it straight back at anyone who tries it on…and you’ve been regurgitating nonsense and insults, so I’m sending them back.
Love your Welsh Ron, maybe that’s a language you could get to make sense in?
Gruffy, wait, I’ll get out my hankey…go on………..
725 & 747: If it’s the definition of democracy that you need to poll a majority of votes before you’re the legitimate winner, then:
* Almost no Australian government in living memory has been democratically elected
* The last UK Government elected democractically was in 1931!
* The US presidents in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were not democratically elected.
‘Majority rules’ is a primary school definition of democracy; real life is a trifle more complex.
Yes, Kirri, it’s been one of those nights all right. I’m still confident that when the rest of the Oregon vote is tallied, Senator “Santos” will pick up another 5 or 6 k votes with 12% of booths yet to report. All the blighters knocked off early. Geez it’s been slow. Maybe they still use the Pony Express to deliver mail in Oregon.
Sleep tight jen and Catrina .
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=ApJu5f6tJGskTAO1a9SDU6jd.sgF
Just reading on a blog. Apparently Obama is speaking at the Tampa Forum today:
“It’s 8am, doors to the Forum don’t open for another two and a half hours and the approaches are already clogged. Community radio doing special traffic reports. This is huge for Tampa.”
Robert,
We seem to be at cross blogs. Yes, I do admire the fact that you put yourself out there personally and Ron seems to know everything about the wok of Life.
Kirribilli Removals #771
Ron, I didn’t know you spoke Welsh!
“dwalfy”, is that a Welsh term of endearment?
k/r: I withdraw that dwalfy comment. I don’t mind insulting you at any time however that term just like calling someone disparagingly ‘a blind man’ is unwittingly referring to actual people in the community in an adverse way rather than just you
I think you remind me of some short little school kid who gives cheek to peers in the playground and then runs away to the teacher to register a complaint of bully harrasment & thats how you act here. Thats why you are a little man , you’ve got little courage of convictions & a little thought. Just want to describe you accurately especially because when you’re feeling not noticed here you cut & paste another financial times like article as if its your own. At no stage for 3 months have you ever given a sensible explanation of Obama’s policys nor a detail of what practically his foreign affairs plans will achieve eg IsraelPalestinian
solution. Why not surprise us all with your own non ‘cut & paste’ contibution ?
For anyone inclined, bet on Clinton, you might win.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKQDjcjHuEM
GhostWhoVotes
#751
“State of New Hamsphire Revised Statutes, TITLE LXIII, Chapter 653
Thanks for that info GhostWhoVotes , I presume if all other States enacted similar legislation , the DNC would have an impossible situation ?
However from a legal FL & Mi status , its the DNC who allowed NH to move their date forward from their usual date and did not apply a penalty but did for FL & MI so a challenge can still be mounted
GG
#804
Roberts woks , have I explained that satisfactorily
RB @ 753
Agree with your point about how different voluntary voting makes things. A note of caution though: you would think that any big increase in minority/youth registration that has occurred during the primaries is now fully reflected in polls like Gallup and Rasmussen, which are of “registered voters”. Not to say that the good registration trends can’t continue however.
Molesworth
#808
I agree with your point. about three weeks ago I suggested the increased DEMS voter turnout was not getting all captured by Obama otherwise he’d have won some unxpected Priarys & that the swing state polling would have accounted for new people. It does seem the black & white poor may be under estimated in polling
If Obama becomes Nominee , there does seem to be a historically huge switch vote from Hillary to Mccain whicch has a doubling effect on what obama has to make up for.
On an unrelated matter , I meant to respond earlier to the popular vote status.
On WV day , I noted RealClearPolitics had made a stat error and that my calcs including MI & FL including votes for both candidates made it about a statistical tie and it still on my calcs is. This was an issue for Obama supporters up to a month ago when obama lead that count. i still think its relevant as a guige of 35 million voters who collectively cann’t split the 2
Poor Ron:
“you cut & paste another financial times like article as if its your own”
…comprehension is not his forte either.
So when someone puts “Bloomberg” at the front of a paragraph, it is generally assuemed that most readers in the English speaking world who are even semi-literate would know that this is a financial newswire service.
Poor Ron appears to be the only person here who can’t figure that out! LOL
Ron old son, haven’t you figured it out yet?
If you keep making idiotic and gratuitous attacks on me I’ll keep returning the favour.
Don’t worry old son, you leave such a huge amount of material to ridicule I’ll never ever run out.
So keep it up, you clown, and I’ll send it right at you, for everyone’s merriment.
Morning Bludgers,
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/sasha_abramsky/2008/05/the_oregon_imperative.html
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/53610
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/53622/
802
Enemy Combatant
Gravity, yes, indeed, without the rainbow!
Meanwhile it could aptly apply to the US economy as well. It’s terminal, as that article I sent you the other day described so well. Everywhere I look it’s the same thing, and most realise that Bear Stearns was just a small rumble, the system is in dire condition, and the US financial system is bleeding badly.
I noticed our little South Pacific Peso is now over 96 cents, and oil hit US$133. But they’ve got to buy it with there own North American Peso!
You can feel the panic, it’s not going to get pretty from here.
KR at 813: “I noticed our little South Pacific Peso is now over 96 cents, and oil hit US$133. But they’ve got to buy it with there own North American Peso!
You can feel the panic, it’s not going to get pretty from here.”
Yeah, Kirri, it’s not just polar bears who are walking on thin ice.
————
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=AlJZdnfu2OLU19.IEHAhxLJR_b4F
Wed May 21:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/laloalcaraz;_ylt=AorT0Q.cYs_9myhX3U8Wp0kl6ysC
Tues May 20: (Reprise, by popular demand!)
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=ArssdoLs0z6wcTNNOx4PyaU0vTYC
Oregon Update at 98% reporting:
Obama: 59
Clnton: 41
Good and bad news for Obama in latest polls:
COLORADO
Obama 48
McCain 42
FLORIDA
McCain 50
Obama 40
I note Obama was campaigning in Florida today. This state seems to be trending against him: due to the dispute over the Florida delegates?
Kirribilli Removals: don’t worry about Ron!
You’re doing a good job here, keep it up!
Tried to stomach Fox’s fair and balanced commentary from Karl Rove last night, propogating the Clinton themes of popular vote (at least he acknowledged that the 3 caucas states are omitted), working class voters and fact that Obama has not put Clinton away yet. Pure drivel.
The hypocrisy of Hillary’s crusade re: MI/FL given all candidates agreed that their primaries wouldnt count is one of the more unsavoury aspects of her campaign
Prog,
Obama will run a 50 state campaign. He has the money to do so, he’s competitive in virtually every state and it will drive McCain mad. Bomb bomb hasn’t got the money to match him and Obama’s attack on McCain for sucking up to lobbyists has just forced him to ditch his connections to the on ly people who could have raised money for him. If McCain focusses only on the obvious swing states he risks being outflanked in places like Virginia or North Carolina or even (God forbid!) Texas.
Yes Progressive – Obama has lost Florida for sure. I am ready to make that call.
Companero Roberto – Surely “money” doesnt determine elections its class consciousness?
820
Edward StJohn Says: Yes Progressive – Obama has lost Florida for sure. I am ready to make that call.
5 months out and with no formal Dem cadidate – that’s a pretty brave call.
Wot, me worry?
Au contraire, I love Ron. He teaches me Welsh and his very own Ronsperanto, which when you master it is condensed humour in a class all of its own!
822
That’s for you Progressive.
818
Andrew
When Rove, who’s working for McCain (but not formally), is spruiking for Hillary, then you know they’re scared about facing Obama.
821
dogb
That’s what old rightwing deadbeats do dogb, they come on blogs and pontificate about how wonderful John Howard’s brand of liberalism is, and when that goes down the toilet, they get all narky and start gnawing away at the US Democratic frontrunner.
“Brave” is hardly the word for it really, just more twaddle from a wash-upped old borne to rule hasbeen.
But it provides amusement on dull days.
Awww Kirri you crack me up! Surely you can sneak in a little pick me up before lunch?
819
Robert Bollard
It’s amusing to watch the old warriors trying to get their pin heads around the fact that this game has got new rules, and a campaign that’s going to push McCain on his home turf.
No wonder they’d prefer Hillary and her banjo plunkers!
ESJ #820 When money comes from millions of ordinary contributors rather than a handful of the usual suspects it can be an indicator of “class consciousness”.
Toff, still weeping over portraits of the Queen?
828
Robert Bollard
Ha!
I think Toff only thinks ‘money’ is real if it’s steeped in a few generations of blood and exploitation, not the crumbs that commoners have.How dare you confuse the two! LOL
KR – I was just going to suggest to Mr StJohn that maybe the rules had changed but you beat me to it.
I do think that Florida is going to be an important state even if The Kid just uses to as a place to pin down Bomb bomb and make him spend his inadequete warchest.
As RB said earlier.
Apparently Kennedy wants to stay a Senator for as long as possible
Will this be like how Winston Churchill’s constituency was effectively without an MP for the last few years of his life due to his constant ill health?
Just curious: are all regulars here just spectating from across the Pacific or are there some Americans among us?
It appears that Hillary needs 80% of remaining delegates to win. Does any Hillary supporter truly believe this is going to happen, and if so, how, particularly given the SDs are overhelmingly breaking Obama’s way. If not, why are we still discussing this as if it’s an ongoing contest?
835
Andrew
I think it’s called the audacity of hope, or in Clinton’s case, arse. It’s no longer a campaign, but an ego trip.
Any sane polly would have pulled stumps a few weeks ago. Even the delusional Romney finally realised he was wasting his money. Usually they are pragmatic people, but no Hillary, this is no longer about her, this is about the fate of ‘womankind’! LOL
833
Jasmine Pierce
I think he’d like to live long enough to see Obama president, and one could hardly blame him. They’ve had plenty of brain dead pollies over the years (even Presidents), Ted’s not likely to be any worse!
KR,
Your hysterical doomsday scenarios do not seem to be shared by people who actually know about these things.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aGnn_CdeXnhg&refer=news
KR at 836, correct me if I’m wrong, but at the point Romney pulled out, didnt he have more chance of winning that Hillary does now (although I know the republican primaries are run differently)
Hillary cannot be stupid enough to believe she can win on the maths. She must just be hoping against hope for a major scandal/ stuff-up
A reality check for Obama’s fantasists here.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/21/union-leader-has-advice-for-obama/
GG, I think we can all find articles that support our viewpoint. Could you please address 835
Gruffy, you only read the BIG letters at the top, don’t you?
Here’s what it also said:
Myron Scholes, chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management LP and 1997 winner of the Nobel Prize in economics, said last week it’s unclear whether the improvement my be just the “eye of the storm.” Scholes said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio that “we don’t know if the storm has passed.”
The real-estate recession is also hurting manufacturing as owners can no longer count on tapping increases in home equity to buy cars or furniture. Auto sales in April slid to a 14.4 million annual rate, the lowest since 1998, according to industry figures. Manufacturing output fell 0.8 percent in April, the most in 2 1/2 years, the Fed said last week.
Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, a member of the committee that determines when contractions begin and end, said in a Bloomberg Television interview May 6 that the economy was “sliding into a recession.”
…proving once more, (as if anyone needed it), that you are a completely ignorant troglodyte homunculus.
Appears Hillary is leaving an opening for taking her fight to the convention, contrary to earlier claims about it all being wrapped up by June 15:
Asked if she now envisioned the race extending beyond June 3, Clinton replied: “It could, I hope it doesn’t. I hope it’s resolved to everyone’s satisfaction by that date, because that’s what people are expecting, but we’ll have to see what happens.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/21/clinton-says-shes-willing_n_102934.html
The Gallup poll yesterday saw Obama moving on Clinton’s support base; today Reuters/Zogby has him opening an 8 point break on McCain from the previous month.
http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN2034087120080521?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
‘The poll also found Obama expanded his lead over Clinton in the Democratic race to 26 percentage points, doubling his advantage from mid-April as Democrats begin to coalesce around Obama and prepare for the general election battle with McCain.’
Andrew,
Please be serious Andrew. You ask a question, you are given an answer but because it is not the answer you want, then you ask the question again and again and again.
In your mind, this is evidence of trying to avoid the question.
There is plenty of material around that explains Hillary’s position and intentions and motives. You might not agree with it, but it is there if you want to open your eyes, your mind and your cynical heart.
Cheers.
Let’s Be Serious
By BOB HERBERT
‘The general election is about to unfold and we’ll soon see how smart or how foolish Americans really are. The U.S. may be the richest country on earth, but the economy is tanking, its working families are in trouble, it is bogged down in a multitrillion-dollar war of its own making and the price of gasoline has nitwits siphoning supplies from the cars and trucks of strangers…
And yet there’s growing evidence that despite the plethora of important issues, the election may yet be undermined by the usual madness — fear-mongering, bogus arguments over who really loves America, race-baiting, gay-baiting (Ohmigod! They’re getting married!) and the wholesale trivialization of matters that are not just important, but extremely complex.’
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/opinion/20herbert.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Guess we are all ‘dwalfys’ now and woks will replace tinfoils…
KR,
Cherry picking are we not. The paragraph before the Scholes quote:
“Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and Wall Street chief executive officers including Vikram Pandit of Citigroup Inc. and Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among those who have judged the worst of the credit crisis has passed. Corporate bond sales have climbed to a record and the cost of protection against default on debt sold by investment banks has receded since March”.
and the KR credibility destroyer,
“This particular slump seems to be milder than any recession since the Great Depression,” John Lonski, chief economist at Moody’s Investors Service, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York.
I understand your pain that things are no where near as perilous as you make out in your regular brouhaha’s of bombastic bulldust. But, watching you eat a “sh*t sandwich” with very little bread will be quite entertaining.
Robert Bollard
#828
“ESJ #820 When money comes from millions of ordinary contributors rather than a handful of the usual suspects it can be an indicator of “class consciousness”.
Obama supporters blog untruths as easily as Obama speaks them.
Obama claims he does not take PAC or Lobbyist money. Obama’s public register by donor , shows over 30 million from PAC & Lobbyists. Another Obama phony
847
Greeensborough Growler S
Proving just how little you know, are we Gruffy?
Go and read about Paulson, you poor ignoramus. You seriously are so far out of you depth it’s a danger to your health.
FFS Gruffy, that is Henry Paulson’s job to TALK IT UP!
And if you don’t know how appallingly bad his record is on that front, then you’re even more stupid than you know.
Clown.
And quoting some turkey from Moody’s????????????
Are you seriously out of your mind?
Gruffy, go play in the sandpit with the other kiddies before you hurt yourself.
Jen at 755 (yesterday?)
Are you watching the series in order? I’m assuming you aren’t, because the spooky parallels start arriving in season 6. As I’ve said before, quite simply one of the best television programs ever created.
Strangely enough, I’ve never thought of myself as a fascist either! I’m more of a Libertarian – we are the sensible ones who believe the government should just get the hell out of our way. But on this blog, I may as well be a hard right nutter, it is all relative
Libertarians support maximum liberty in both personal and economic matters. They advocate a much smaller government; one that is limited to protecting individuals from coercion and violence. Libertarians tend to embrace individual responsibility, oppose government bureaucracy and taxes, promote private charity, tolerate diverse lifestyles, support the free market, and defend civil liberties.
I ask you, how can you argue with that?
If anybody else feels like joining the off topic ramble rather than read back and forth sniping, take the World’s smallest political quiz. Just ten questions, takes about a minute, two tops. Interestingly, I did it about a year ago and just then, and got exactly the same result, to the number. Nice to know I have some sort of consistency.
Your PERSONAL issues Score is 80%.
Your ECONOMIC issues Score is 60%.
See? I’m actually very sensible, not far off being a humble centrist either, and scarily close to being a latte sipping liberal…
I digress.
I wrote my honours thesis arguing with that. But largley just the free market bit.
Gruffy, since you have absolutely no clue, I’ll tell you how it works.
The journo does a story about the economy and he quotes the usual suspects for the government ie Paulson and an industry shill or two. The usual warmed over half-baked tripe for the muppets (ie YOU)
He then quotes some serious adults who give you the real story.
It’s called presenting the crap and the grown up stuff so the intelligent reader can play ’spot the difference’.
Pity for you Gruffy, you can’t!
God, never get near a used car salesman or a door to door gadget flogger Gruffy.They’d eat you alive.
846
codger
How do you do it:
“Guess we are all ‘dwalfys’ now and woks will replace tinfoils…”
It’s pure Zen and the Art of Ronsperanto!
851
Looks like I am well to the Left:
Your PERSONAL issues Score is 90%.
Your ECONOMIC issues Score is 10%.
Notice our resident “cut & paste” Parrot has cut & pasted 2 more articles totday as if he wrote them. Not sure whats worse , the daily pollution of a political site with irrelevant US housing prices from k/r or the fact his knowledge of economics is kindergarden level.Hillary leads the popular vote , when Obama was leadig Obamabots were bragging , now elitist lattee silence
Max
That’s a really hard quiz! I must equivocate too much.
PERSONAL issues 60%
ECONOMIC issues 10%
That makes me feel rather un-unique. Boring ass liberal.
Pretty much as I expected, a left-leaning centrist.
Your PERSONAL issues Score is 60%.
Your ECONOMIC issues Score is 40%.
Still, I’m a latte-sipping elitist and I’ll be damned if some quiz tells me otherwise!
Max, the sniping is really getting quite tiring. Glad to see you’re providing a pleasant distraction. Thanks!
Max -
Personal 90%
Ecomomic 10% !
Guesss you and I will be able to agree on the West Wing, but that’s probably about all.
I have been watching it in sequence, and the parallels with the crap going on about Iran currently is one example.
Haven’t got to Santos yet.
Noocat- snap.
want a latte? and a joint of course.
Boys- the Fight Club meets after dark.
856
Ron
Are you mad as well as stupid?
Gruffy posted a link and made out an argument that was, as usual crap, based on it.
I posted some of the bits he did not read or did not understand to show what a complete fool he is,
Now you want to put your hand up as one too????
Ron, the tinfoil hat, or better still, the wok, you really need to wear it because the gamma rays are frying whatever neurons you have left.
Ah……….”new-rons”!
Mate, you need more than a few! LOL
GG, I missed your specific answers to my questions: Does any Hillary supporter truly believe this is going to happen, and if so, how, particularly given the SDs are overhelmingly breaking Obama’s way.. Please point out where they are.
861
Jen
yes, ask the children to go outside, will you Jen? LOL
Really? Excellent, good to see I’m not alone then in my struggles. If only the Australian Libertarians weren’t completely useless, I might have actually considered selling my soul and joining a political party. Sadly, it’s not to be, thus my vote remains for sale.
(Kevin ain’t getting it mind you)
–
Depends on how you look at it Jen – we are pretty much identically matched on ‘personal issues’ – it’s just the economic issues we disagree on. Which I highly suspect will be the case with a lot of people on this blog.
I agree with you all on the personal stuff – free speech, no bedroom laws, no draft etc. It’s just that I am a bit of a fan of the free market as well. Them’s the breaks I guess.
To the rest of you… I’m more a fan of cappuccino’s myself. Or else Nescafe (gold, naturally). Obviously that’s a key difference?
Andrew,
What they are relying on is a favourable decision from the DNC RBC on Florida and Michigan delegate seatings. The range of decisions means that Hillary needs somewhere between 85% and 64% of the remaining delegates. While the upper limit is realistically unachievable (and most of them accept this, even if they don’t mention it publically), the lower limit is within reason, IF she has a very strong showing in Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota.
Under the most favourable FL and MI scenario, she cannot obtain the pledged delegate majority without picking up the Uncommitted Michigan delegates (but in that case, they aren’t really pledged delegates then), but mathematically it is still possible for her to obtain 2209 delegates. Unlikely, but still mathematically possible. Kinda like West Coast making the AFL finals.
Saturday May 31 will decide it all. If it doesn’t go with the most favourable scenario to Hillary, that will end it there and then, although she will probably push through the next few days until the final primaries are held on June 3.
Poor old KR, caught in the blowback of his overblown rhetoric. The official Fed figures show small growth for the rest of the year. While there are undoubted continung problems in the US economy, the Armagheedon melt down that KR has blathered on about is not the scenario being painted by the people whose job is to deal with these matters every day.
Too much bread on that sandwich KR.
http://business.theage.com.au/fed-slashes-us-growth-forecast-20080522-2gzz.html
Max
i think you misread. I wrote my thesis arguing WITH the free market. Not particularly original, especially for the folk frequenting this site! Although, i’ve always been interested in libetariansim – but being a typical leftie tend to most often fall on the statist side of things (though not as much as others).
And it is interesting to see you here, cos well…everyone here is fairly similar (hell, Robert Bollard is treated differnt cos he has a ‘red’ card (whatever that is!) and a wok…whereas everyone else just has latte’s.
Hmmm
Personal 100%
Economic 50%
Bang on the line separating Left Liberal with Libertarian… Sounds about right actually.
But we should all tie down our grandmothers – Noocat, Jen and Yo Ho Ho look like they want to nationalise them!
10% economic? Bloody hell comrades!
Max
Voting would be particularly difficult for you wouldn’t it. On one hand, the ALP tends to be associated with the statist side of things, but the last conservative govt was just that, and not particularly ‘liberal’.
How do you decide who to vote for? I’m fascinated. By who promises less?
GG you don’t want to put too much trust in the figures from The Fed.
Rubbery, very rubbery indeed.
Oh yeah
Personal 100%
Economic 60%
How dull.
Possum.
I found the economic questions a little ambiguos for me. The corporate handouts concept is vague (hell i’m pro the govt investing in solar energy, but not particularly interested in them spending my cash on useless fighter planes etc). The free trade thing i think i went with maybe….
So yeah, i think i’m a little more centrist that the 10%, but the questions just didn’t suit.
Yo ho
Hahaha, yes I think I misread too. Pity!
I sense that the only reason I’m here is because for once I’m on the populist side – most people here like the chap I’m a fan of. So it’s all good, I’m not arguing my losing battles in these US threads.
I gave up conversing in the Australian threads a long time ago – as somebody who is a Liberal supporter and gets cranky at the new government at least twice a week – because there’s only a certain amount of time which you can tolerate dealing with an overwhelming majority whom are ideologically entrenched against you. It does wear you down. But I did try, and I’m sure William can vouch for that if nobody else can!
Possum, we’re practically soulmates:
Personal 100%
Economic 40%
I’m a leftie liberal and I’m PROUD!
Max,
80/70 Libertarian. I thought I was a Scorpio actually.
860:
Noocat- snap.
want a latte? and a joint of course.
So how does it feel being an “ignorant loathing lefty”??
Just black with one & a half raw here.
Ron ‘Hillary leads the popular vote’. Well not yet. Lotsa #’s here:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html
And the tricky bit here:
FL & MI By The Numbers
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
Nice graphs on supers etc.
Yo Ho said “I found the economic questions a little ambiguos for me”
Likewise – I’m normally a bit more economically to the right on most of these sorts of quizzes. Not having an answer that says “well that depends..” gets in the way a bit with these things. Corporate welfare for bringing R&D to the market has its place for instance, privatising social security is pointless if it creates an overall net loss in human welfare (but partial privatisation i.e. superannuation creates a net benefit to human welfare). Total substitution of charities for welfare swamps the country with vagrancy costs – but charities can do some things better than state based welfare, especially on the services side.
Lifes more complicated – but it’s a cute quiz.
Ferny – brother. We shall unite to smite these ideologues!
But only on the ..er…economic side
Greeny – those scores make you sound like a sort of “low carb” Libertarian
Agree totally Possum.
I mean, part of the biggest challenges facing the smaller economies in the world is how to get enough R&D going (in comparison to the massive companies of the world). You just can’t compete without some govt help there!
I think i like the one at politicalcompass.org more. Possibly cos its longer, you get to contradict yourself more often….
Ultimately what the political quiz doesn’t show is how IMPORTANT certain issues are for you.
For mine, the Liberals were the best of two evils (as for many the ALP were). I’m not a big fan of symbolism, and it’s difficult to dispute that a lot of what this government has done has been just that – symbolic. Not to mention introducing new taxes one which is squarely targeted at the rich and in the case of alcopops the justification is so pathetically ridiculous (curb bringe drinking? By taxing a few brands? ORLY?) that it deserves to be quashed.
This was countered by the fact I was of the opinion the old lot needed their arses handed to them – no government should be unchecked, nor feel as though they can manipulate or unresponsive to the electorate. The electoral law changes were a disgrace. Workchoices I generally agreed with, though they went a touch too far. etc etc. And no, I am not going to respond to anyone who challenges this, not least because I’m off topic (sorry William, but this has to be more fun then KR v GG v Ron?) because I don’t want a debate on it. Debates over, the unions won, time to move on.
It’s a balance. But ultimately I am ideologically aligned with the right wing party. And I never seriously considered voting Labor, though I wavered once or twice.
OMG Max red dot added to favourites!
dogb,
Whether the Feds figures are rubbery or not, the picture is an economy spluttering along with some positives and negatives, but with some growth.
Whatever you may think of the forecasts, it is not the end of the free world as we know it.
KR will beg to differ of course in his usual mature and reasoned way.
She’s in it to spin it, but will it end:
(that’s called a colon Ron, and it seperates what I’ve just said from the quote which follows in a new paragraph)
Maybe the morning after the June 3 primaries, Hillary and Bill Clinton will realize that it is finally time to pull the curtain down on the road show called “Return to the White House.” Maybe the entire Hillary spin team will be afflicted by a mysterious epidemic of laryngitis. Maybe the former first couple will be convinced to quit by quiet advice from people whose loyalty and discretion is beyond question — counselors like campaign manager Maggie Williams, lawyer Vernon Jordan and strategist Harold Ickes.
Salon
(that’s the name of the website the quote directly above it is from Ron)
…(that’s called an ellipsis Ron, and it signifies that I’m about to comment on the the above Ron) well here’s hoping! Or will it be Alien Mother all the way to Denver?
(Now Ron, you shouldn’t have any more trouble working out the difference between quoted material and my own words. If you need any more help, with the big words, or going to the toilet, just let us know and we’ll help you, OK?)
867
Greeensborough Growler
you’re quoting ‘official figures’ for GDP expectations?????
You are the biggest clown in town Gruffy. Does it get hot in that clown suit or are you used it, and never take it off?
Try educating yourself a tiny bit before you embarass yourself further.
GG – of course it’s not the end of the world. It’s a recession. They happen.
The big problem is that the core problems are being hidden by the fed. Interest rates in the US are far too low. They risk runaway inflation. They raise them and they’ll bankrupt a lot of people.
What will happen? Don’t know. It’s a huge economy with a lot of inertia. It tends to just plough through the rough patches.
What scares me this time is how fast it’s slowing. Don’t think anybody knows where the bottom is yet. Anybody that says they do is lying.
885
Greeensborough Growler
OK Gruffy:
” it is not the end of the free world as we know it.
KR will beg to differ of course in his usual mature and reasoned way.”
…show me where I’ve claimed that it’s the ‘end of the free world as we know it’.
Put simply (for the simple!):
“We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.” George Soros.
Kirribilli Removals Quotes: “We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.” George Soros.
Listen to this man GG. His words you can take to the bank!
Yo Ho at 882, I’ve done that politicalcompass.org quiz a few times, and depending on my mood I always end up on the Economic Left/Right with a score between 1.5 and 4.0, but my Social Libertarian/Authoritarian score is always either -6.82 or -6.92.
That puts me on the left of the Liberal Party and the Right of the ALP, but would probably make me a far left North East Republican, or some sort of bewildered Democrat in the US.
Gruffy, whenever you quote Federal Reserve board members or their ‘official’ numbers, just remember what a dopey bunch of coddled public servants they are:
Soros: The authorities, the regulators—the Federal Reserve and the Treasury—really failed to see what was happening. One Fed governor, Edward Gramlich, warned of a coming crisis in subprime mortgages in a speech published in 2004 and a book published in 2007, among other statements. So a number of people could see it coming. And somehow, the authorities didn’t want to see it coming. So it came as a surprise.
…and Greenspan told him to sod off! LOL
Maybe you could actually learn something if you read this:
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21352
…a fairly easy outline as to why things are so badly in the shit bigtime. And then, fill your sandwich with it.
Max
#851
Max a declared ‘Libertarian’. Libertarian definition: “advocate a much smaller government; one that is limited to protecting individuals from coercion and violence.”
Max , IF you want a serious discussion , I would definitively question the whole basis of Libertarian philosophy starting with the point your “government”s key prioritys do not include equity , balanced social changes , provision of opportunity nor responsibility for or assistance for the poor & disadvantaged . These may be in the Libetarian agenda somewhere but not as fundamental isssues in your definition
Left liberal … free love in , economic ratbags
Libertarians… free love in , let the wealthiest plunder
Conservatives… no civil liberties , let the wealthiest plunder
k/r , the Quiz found no category
Ron ended up middle scores in both & according to the Quiz , a “centralist”. Labor Party wise thats correct IF the centralist definition includes Labor orientated principles questions on equity, opportunity & disadvantaged (but the Quiz’s weakness is their individual absence & illogically these are lumped into more generalised questions).
Daily Kos estimates Obama only needs another 62 delegates to clinch the nomination.
In an interview today Nancy Pelosi made it clear she doesn’t buy Hillary’s popular vote argument, it’s the number of delegates that matters.
Lieberman, that sad old excuse for a Republican’s b!tch, is pimping for McCain (again), and gets a few arguments put through the shredder:
http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/?last_story=/politics/war_room/2008/05/21/lieberman/
Running for VP?
That would be funny.
894
Progressive
You mean Nancy is not a ’sista’? LOL
Nancy thinks the rules say it’s the delegates?
Nancy’s gonna have to slap Hillary?
Oh boy, this is fun.
KR,
The Apoplectic Apocalypse Nower. You are now trying to distance yourself from your extremist views. Always thought you were a coward.
Things are crook, but not as crook as you have made out. Life will go on, the sun will shine and KR will be mocked as the fool.
Bliss.
Hillary , an Aussie “a fair go”
In an interview with The Associated Press, Clinton said “she is willing to take her fight to seat Florida and Michigan delegates to the convention if the two states want to go that far.”
Floridians “learned the hard way what happens when your votes aren’t counted and the candidate with fewer votes is declared the winner,” she told supporters. “The lesson of 2000 here in Florida is crystal clear: If any votes aren’t counted, the will of the people isn’t realized and our democracy is diminished.The people who voted did nothing wrong and it would be wrong to punish you,” she added.
Obama has trashed civil liberties & 2.3 million people’s Constitutionally legal freedom of democratic expression in favor of his selfish political expediency. Yes indeed , the 2.3 million people did nothing wrong but are being punished. The Obamabots blogs over months are a record of their trashing of such principles , starting with saying NO to any FL & MI delegates being accepted !
My prediction is the principles content free Obama , using the ‘black’ desertion intimidation tactics so successful inforcing SD’sto Obama over the last month , (as Dr Carr & Mayor Koch predicted) will Chicago style force FL & MI to agree to an inequitable no. of acceptable delegates accredibitable to the Convention , again for his selfish integrity free political expediency.
THEN Obamabots will change their narrative to now agreeing with Obama’s showing “phony fairness” , contradicting their original blogs
I think GG you have to understand that KR economics is of the Lyndon La Rouche, the J.ws and the banks are to blame variety coupled with taking your shoes and socks off to help with counting once you get past ten.
talk about hunting in packs.
Oh-oh, they’re on the loose again!
http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y50/RicoBlaster/TinFoilHatArea.jpg
EC- fantastic!
897
Greeensborough Growler
nah gruffy, things are seriously crook, seen the price of your favourite brand of hydrocarbon.
Or food.
mind you, house prices aren’t falling at quite 25% yet, but don’t bet against them not doing it some point in the US. And MILLIONS, yes, MILLIONS will default on home loans.
A ‘bit crook’? Funny understatement from you Gruffy, usually so full of hyperbolic abuse.
And you’ve proven, over and over, what a dull ignorant little pissant you really are.
900
Jen
Cretins need company, isn’t it so nice they have each other?
901
Enemy Combatant
Could William use that at the head of the next thread?
Sure could! LOL
Truly, a very useful warning sign to all who enter here!
Ya find some amusing things old son, you really do!
#898 Ron
Perhaps you need a reminder?
Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager, 1 Sep 2007
“We believe Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina play a unique and special role in the nominating process. And we believe the DNC’s rules and its calendar provide the necessary structure to respect and honor that role.Thus, we will be signing the pledge to adhere to the DNC approved nominating calendar.”
Gruffy, it’s not only me, it’s people who’d you could credit with more than a passing understanding of what is coming down the pike:
Woodruff: So how long will this last?
Soros: Well, it depends on when the authorities wake up, because you need to reduce the number of foreclosures. You need to keep as many people as possible in their houses so that they don’t come onto the market. You need to arrest the decline in house prices, but you also need to prevent human suffering and social disruption because it’s going to be very, very severe. Certain communities are already hurting and it’s going to get a lot worse. So action will have to be taken, but I don’t think it’s going to happen during this administration.
…it’s not a ‘bit crook’, it’s something beyond the scope of most people’s experience and well beyond the small limits of your imagination.
And in case you don’t get it Gruffy:
Woodruff: You write, “We are at the end of an era.” When this current credit crisis ends, will the US still be, no doubt about it, the world superpower when it comes to the economy?
Soros: Not at all. This is now in question. And you now have entered a period of really considerable uncertainty and turmoil because of the general flight from currencies, which manifests itself in the commodities bubble that has developed.
…it’s the BIG WRITING ON THE WALL, the US$ is sinking like a stone, commodity prices are raging, asset values are falling, and you reckon things are a ‘bit crook’! LOL
Go on, are they, Gruffy???? LOL
KR
Forgive my vague, superficial knowledge of the topic, but in terms of the US no longer being the dominant world economy, hasn’t this argument been made before (i’m thinking late late 60s/early 70s and late 70s early 80s). All it took then was the end of the Gold standard in 1971 and the Plaza accords in 84 (when japan got a bit big for its boots).
I guess what i’m asking is does the US have the political power to force a solution.
And i’m thinking maybe i put this to you before. Apologies for already forgetting your answer.
Axelrod tells NPR he’s willing to go more than halfway on Michigan and Florida
NPR just sent out a press release with excerpts of an interview Obama Chief Strategist David Axelrod gave “All Things Considered” host Michele Norris, where he seemed to open the door to a deal on Michigan and Florida:
“We are open to comprise [sic]. We are willing to go more than half way. We’re willing to work to make sure that we can achieve a compromise. And I guess the question is: is Senator Clinton’s campaign willing to do the same?”
Axelrod continues: “Well, obviously, any compromise is going to involve some give, and that means if there’s something on the table, we’re willing to consider it. That may include us yielding more delegates than perhaps we would have, simply on the basis of the rules.”[
This comes after Clinton compared the fight for the rogue delegations to the civil rights movement earlier today . David Kuhn and I noted a couple weeks ago that sitting Florida and Michigan wouldn’t change the underlying dynamic of the race.
Regarding the discussion last night on how much the internet will change political elections, here is an article at the NYT on it.
Politics Faces Sweeping Change via the Web
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/02/washington/02campaign.html
LOL Jen, the prefect, the dyslexic and the DLP voter. Quite a pack.