Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.
2,133 Comments
Nice thread title!
I have said it before but the Kentucky Derby scenario this year is the strongest damn omen and sign i have ever seen in my life.
Hillary, playing to the lunch bucket crowd on Derby Eve, knocks back a brewski and hands out her tip for the Derby:
The first filly in the race for over 20 years, Eight Belles, will show that it’s the Year of the Girl she proclaimed.
but
The filly Eight Belles runs a game second but breakdowns after the post and has to be euthanised.
The winner? An undefeated newcomer having only his 3rd start called Big Brown.
Unbelievable.
Big Brown has now won the second leg of the triple crown easily and looks like being the new phenominen of the modern era. No horse has won it since Affirmed in 1978.
Eerie
Come November, the Dems will give up Kentucky for dead. Like Indiana, it’s red-as-red-can-be, and McCain will have to be caught in bed with a young boy or (worse) a communist for the GOP to lose it.
But Oregon is a pale shade of blue, and a must-win for the Dems in the presidential election. Nestled between Washington State and California, Oregon is increasingly becoming an honorary member of the “Left Coast”, so it’ll be interesting to see how Obama scores here.
Bill Kristol, the deflated windbag of the neocons, is trying to re-inflate the Republican cause:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/opinion/19kristol.html?hp
…with John McCain, and it’s not really convincing.
He leaps on California and its Supreme Court and cites the 61% against on a ballot 8 years ago, whilst conveniently not mentioning the most recent poll down to just 51% against. (This is a usual Neocon debating trick: ignore the facts wherever they may be inconvenient truths).
So, let’s flog the gay issue even though the world is moving on faster than a Neocon’s neuron.
Secondly, he raises Bush in the Knesset and of course McCain’s parallel ME policies. Yep, Bill, they’re such a winner 6 out of ten want out of Iraq pronto. Appease Iran? Nah, talk to them before you go in with guns blazing though. Even Condi and Macca are on the record saying so.
And lastly, Republicans have won the presidency with Democrats getting the Congress, so hey, we may just be able to pull it off again, because the HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga.
That’s it, ladies and gentleman, the Republican hopes distilled into a bucket of luke warm crud.
Big Brown not only won by five lengths, but from the far outside position in the field.
I’m with HH, it’s some omen! LOL
Sad about Hillary though, er, I mean, her horse! A long way back second and a fall. Gotta say, it was surely an omen!
Good Evening, Bludgers,
1674, Jen Says: “personally RB I find there is nothing quite like chucking a franciscan.”
1677 Robert Bollard Says: “If he’s a bad abbot or a felonious monk then it’s surely justified.”
Just spent the day counselling a latte lefty who had recently converted to become a cappuccino monk. ‘Twas a torrid experience, indeed. The guy was a complete mess. At first he found the monastic life offered him a richly rewarding spiritual, olfactory and gustatory experience, however he wasn’t prepared for the full-on proselytising power of the Devil Bean. After his fifth cup of coffee this morning, Brother Kramer felt compelled to break free from the friary and tell somebody about it.
Was about to down a short black at my favourite shoterie and grapple with the psephological complexities of the upcoming primaries when the hyper-caffeinated missionary button-holed me and commenced to spill his guts. Mesmerised by his motor-mouthed delivery, I have only this moment managed to extricate myself from the ordeal because his fellow friars, deeply concerned at his unexplained absence from “Cappuccino Cloisters” had organised a search party. Like angels of mercy they swooped and lured the hapless novice away with the promise of a fix of primo Andean aribica.
So yes, jen and RB, know just how you feel!
#4
Nicely put, KR. More sane and sober Republicans are dreading November. They’ve lost three special elections this year in traditional GOP districts in Illinois, Louisiana and (last week) Mississippi. Not a good sign. Sure, it’s a protest vote against Bush; but winning the seat containing Tupelo (Elvis’s birthplace!) in Mississippi is a real coup for the Dems.
It’s the independent voters that swing elections, not the gun-toting hillbillies in their pick-up trucks. Unless the religious nutters come out in droves (and this bunch and McCain aren’t exactly soulmates), then the GOP is in big trouble. “The HillBilly crowd down the Appalachias won’t vote for no nigga”, but they would never vote Democrat anyway. The Dems have given up trying to win those redneck states that are still fightin’ the Civil War. In addition to the ’safe’ blue states, all they need is Florida, Ohio, a few upper MidWest states, maybe the SouthWest (especially New Mexico and Nevada), and the Presidency is theirs. Screw the old Confederacy – who needs ‘em.
KR: Re Kristol in the NYT at #4
Problem 1 doesn’t matter. See Democrat primary turnout. And the much-referenced salon article in the last thread.
Problem 2: “Thursday, the California Supreme Court did precisely what much of the American public doesn’t want judges doing: it made social policy from the bench.”
Well, maybe it helps some. McCain makes noises and promises to appoint Supreme Court justices that won’t legalise gay marriage (or at least won’t override state decisions in the matter). That plays with the right, I reckon, and well help him get out the Republican fundie base.
Problem 3 – he’s Neville Chamberlain in blackface! – don’t reckon it works. Reckon jawing might be back in favour with the US populace, as war-ing isn’t working real well.
And
“supporter-of-middle-American-values” is I suppose the new code for reminding the voters that he’s not-white. Still, it’s a problem for the Republicans – the more they try and slyly remind some voters about their weirdness about having a black president, the bigger the risk that playing-the-race-card turns off a significant number of the non-extremists any candidate needs to win. You know, the people who find racism, event hints and dogwhistles, a bit repulsive. Which includes a chunk of the fundie base. An interesting balancing act, perhaps.
I don’t know what you coves are smoking and inhaling, but 30 point losses in November will see McCain in the White House. Great omen.
Not surprised KR could not wait to mention the winners name. He never misses a chance to use excremental terms in his posts.
EC : Sure you didn’t add a little mixer to your friend’s brew? Obviously the coffee experience is a dangerous activity in your parts. Tea drinking is far more gentile, I say and leads to less strange behaviour.
Nice to see Kakuro embracing Obama’s 50 State strategy.
Gruffy, usually I mention excremental terms when you come in here chucking yours around. Of course Eddy then often follows up the rear (so to speak) and does the finger painting on the walls with it. That’s just his idea of spreading the joy.
Still, it’s your contribution, and we’ve come not to expect much better, and you haven’t disappointed.
Just been looking at a few maps on Wikipedia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USMapCommonAncestry2000.PNG
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2008_Democratic_Primaries_Popular_Vote.png
Proof that Americans do love Clinton?
OK, I think we now know who’s going to be banging on for Macca until November, eh?
I’ve always suspected under that puerile gruff exterior was a rightwing bovver boy just aching to lurch right out and start head butting anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised.
If you look carefully, you can always pick ‘em. It’s the charm; gives it away every time! LOL
11
B.S. Fairman
On your second link, at the bottom of the page is one coded for delegate count.
Not much green (Clinton) on that one! LOL
We need at least one. The blog would be boring otherwise.
Some poor old Marxist made some nasty comments about alleged Vote Master inadequacies earlier today. The figures have been updated below and include the latest New Mexico Rasmussen numbers. Unfortunately for the POM it still shows Obama likely to lose against McCain (consistent with the trend for a few weeks). Time for some furious spin.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May19.html
Excellent timing, pity the message doesn’t quite square with the Idiot Decider’s. It’s so hard to get good puppet governments these days, they just don’t follow the rules:
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has dismissed claims that Iran is sending weapons into his country and called for strong Iran ties.
“Those who make such claims against Iran only express their personal views which don’t reflect those of the Iraqi government,” he said in interview with the Al-Arabiya TV on Friday.
“I, as the president of Iraq, do not agree with such views,” he added.
“Our Iranian brothers are ready for dialogue on any such issues,” Talabani said.
“As far as Iranian weapons are concerned it should be mentioned that during Saddam Hussein’s rule Iran provided weapons for the Iraqi opposition groups,” he added.
Talabani also called for enhanced ties between Iraq and Iran and said that “I strongly believe that the relations between Iran and Iraq in different fields could be further strengthened,” IRNA quoted him as saying.
presstv
15 GG
Here’s the spin, well selective facts really. Both 538 and electionprojection are projecting an Obama win for New Mexico.
No Gruffy, RB put forward a clear, precise argument with evidence
You are the one that came on ‘nasty’.
You can’t even tell the truth can you?
KR @ 10&12,
So let us be clear for all our fellow PBers,
1. Any two posters that robustly disagree with you are homosexuals?
2. This is a bad thing?
3. You are a font of wisdom on “anything that sounded even vaguely intelligent, informed, and civilised”.
Please make a coherent case for these enlightened thoughts.
Kirri is a bore, he should try a new schtick
I won’t bother describing what a load of self-serving and inaccurate (ie false) tosh this article by blowhard Neocon John Bolton is:
North Korea has also used the Six-Party Talks to gain time, testing its first nuclear weapon in 2006, all the while cloning its Yongbyon reactor in the Syrian desert.
…but suffice to say Bolton was thankfully removed and adults took up the dialogue with NKorea.
As for the ‘reactor in the Syrian desert’, no credible source thinks there is even a shred of evidence for this.
It’s more “Saddam buys yellowcake from Niger” crappola.
You can hear the chirping of the Neocons building up into a sad frenzy all over again as they stare annihilation in the face.
Bring it on, indeed!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121115528610702289.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries
The finger painter has arrived.
Oh, what pearls of decorative wisdom shall he inscribe for us I wonder?
Diogenes,
There was some heated discussion earlier over Votemaster. KR seems to have worked himself up in to a lather of righteous outrage. He seems much happier that way.
nah Gruffy, just calling you liar, because you are one.
Anyone wishing to go and see this morning’s posts will conclude exactly the same.
You’re a bully, thick as a plank, and when you get called on it, you resort to lying about other posters, rather like old Snidely used to do until he got slapped for it.
Go on, suck on that.
You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.
25
William Bowe
Yeah, I’m right over it too.
You have an astounding lack of self-awareness sometimes, KR.
GG – so the fact that they’ve belatedly fixed the problem I pointed to is evidence it didn’t exist. Though it still doesn’t explain their inconsistency in occasionally using the latest poll (as they are now for New Mexico and still do for Wisconsin and Michigan) and other times using a poll average (as they did for New Mexico up until this last change). This latest decision favours Obama. But my point was not that there was some kind of conspiracy to favour Clinton, just that I didn’t agree with the methodology. Just calling each state on the basis of a single poll magnifies the margin of error, and produces “noise” that obscures trends.
But then that’s just furious Marxist spin, so you can ignore it if you want.
27
William Bowe
I’ll treat people the way they treat me. Call that a ‘lack of self-awareness’ if you like, but that’s my principle, and I apply it very consistently.
And I don’t suffer nongs terribly well, that may be construed as a failing, I’ll grant you that! LOL
William, some of us count ourselves lucky you don’t care anymore, as it’s very entertaining, if somewhat inexplicable, except in a bulls with horns locked together sense. Some of the other posters are informative, however, so I’d encourage not caring. Better for one’s blood pressure.
Soggy pizza, or just trouble with your base?
Here’s one blogger’s take on McCain:
McCain-Fiengold and McAmnesty are far left wing agendas. They have nothing to do with being moderate or conservative.
John McCain is a Democrat and has considered switching parties. True Republicans do not have a candidate this year. The Democrats will have two.
…now, for us ‘ignorant loathing lefties’, that is truly funny!
Obama is now moving on to the first phases of the main contest. For example, countering the standard conservative smear tactics. It doesn’t seem there will be any element of surprise in the attacks on Obama, unlike the out-of-the-blue ‘Swift Boat’ crap they threw at Kerry.
Apart from continuing to wear a flag pin a veteran recently gave him (props are always nice!), Obama is going to start emphasising ‘his life story as a uniquely American one.’. This is good. I was a little worried at his reluctance to engage more directly on some of the smears when up against Hillary, but without the constraints of an intra-party battle he is obviously going to be more aggressive against McCain. Obama’s effective reaction to the Hamas and the ‘appeasement’ stuff was the first sign, and the American roots emphasis is another:
‘Obama Shifts to Countering Republican Attacks on His Patriotism’
`My grandfather — Stanley Dunham — enlisted after Pearl Harbor and went on to march in Patton’s Army,” Obama said in Charleston. “My grandmother, meanwhile, worked on a bomber assembly line while he was gone, and my mother was born at Fort Leavenworth.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axg8sEeN3dLA&refer=home
32
jaundiced view
So while Hillary was pretending to be Rosy the Riveter, Obama’s grandmother was in fact one!
Ironic, huh?
So Hillary wins Kentucky, Obama wins Oregan. Hillary still cant win. Hillary stays in the race. Have I got it wrong??
Are the rumours true that Hilary will gain an Acadamy Award nomination for Best Actress? Or perhaps, well deserved nomination for Best Supporting Actress in regard to good old Bill? What a couple of Troopers! Keeps the old Westerns alive in all of our minds!
34 Andrew
That’s about the size of it. Unless the Democrat SDs wheel out the equine ambulance and put her out of her, and our, misery with a mercy killing.
Well you know your chances for an Oscar are much better when you play someone with an infirmity…does being delusional count???
Equine ambulance has just driven up the road of common parlance.
It could come in handy, too.
Companero Roberto we never got past relativism as your defence.
Eduardo
David Letterman recently joked that with her campaign $21 million in debt, Hillary is at “the world’s most expensive fantasy camp.”
HAHAHAHHAHAHA
Hard to see why the SDs are holding back? Allegiance to Hillary and hoping she will quit before they show their hand. You’ve got to think if they were going to go for her they would have weeks ago when it may have helped her
Speculation Hillary will concede after the votes in Kentucky and Oregon on Tuesday/Wednesday.
Obama got a crowd of 75,000 to his rally in Portland, Oregon yesterday: a good sign he’ll win that primary this week, and the state will stay in Democrat hands this November.
You’d assume the Republicans will win Kentucky easily!
Now everyone, let’s play nice in William’s sandpit!
And further evidence that William is making a wise choice having given up on us (looks like that Stoic/Cynic philosophy has another adherent). It’s bad for you to have to be nice when you want to abuse someone.
Dieter Zapf of the Johann Wolfgang Goethe University in Frankfurt studied 4,000 volunteers working in a fake call center. Half were allowed to respond in kind to abuse on the other end of the line while the other half had to suck it up, The Telegraph reports.
He found that those able to answer back had a brief increase in heart rate. Those who could not had stress symptoms that lasted much longer.
“Every time a person is forced to repress his true feelings there are negative consequences,” Zapf said. “We are all able to rein in our emotions but it becomes difficult to do this over a protracted period.
http://www.upi.com/NewsTrack/Top_News/2008/05/16/scientist_smiling_can_hurt_your_health/2772/
Prog at 42, Hillary has repeatedly said she stays in until there is a nominee. Why quit now??
KR @ 33 – I think Grandma Obama’s riveting past might mean she can still put a few nails in the Repug coffin on behalf of her young grandson in ‘Operation Patriotism’.
Let’s see if the Idiot Decider’s dogwhistling from the floor of the Knesset changes anything, but I expect it won’t:
But a Gallup poll last month — in the midst of the Wright drama — found Obama beating McCain 61-32 among Jewish voters, a far wider margin than among the population as a whole. While that’s lower than John Kerry’s 76 percent margin among Jews (and 5 points lower than the 66 percent Hillary Clinton got in the same poll), Obama’s campaign isn’t worried about making up the difference by November. “If we’re beating McCain 2-1 after ‘Obama is a Muslim’ scares and a month of Rev. Wright, then we’re doing pretty well,” one aide said.
Salon
Well Andrew, it would be better for her party’s chances of winning the election if she would step aside and allow the candidate to get on with the main game. That however would require putting something else above her personal ambition, and so it won’t happen.
Progressive- can I bring my high horse into the sandpit?
45
jaundiced view
It’s going to be interesting to watch how Obama defuses the racial differences with his own personal history. The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.
Expect some ‘cognitive dissonance’ amongst some who already think ‘he ain’t one of us’.
34- Hillary will pull the pin on June 2th after Puerto Rico. A farewell tour of sorts.
What would be nice is her making some strong statement about Puerto Rico needing to be represented in the HoR (or even Statehood) which should help with the population back home in New York. Plus if she makes that an issue, it is likely to do more harm to Republicans than the Democrates (like illegal immigaration).
William must think we’re all a bunch of crackpots LOL
Jen: of course you can bring your high horse!
Kirribilli Removals: No doubt the Republicans are preparing the mother of all dirty tricks/smear campaigns for this election. Hopefully it backfires badly on them.
The recent vote in Mississippi proves that negative politics/personal attacks doesn’t work in 2008! It’s the economy, stupid!
KR @ 49 – [The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.]
Yes, exactly. It will help neutralise the patriotism attacks before they really start. The handbrake for the Repugs is that it is not a good look to attack an opponent’s frail grandparents or parents, which is what they would have to do – as in “Oh yeah, we bet Grandma Obama didn’t wear a lapel pin when riveting our bombers together in WW2″ – It just wouldn’t work, would it?
He is doing the correct thing putting it all out there now – I think plenty of background stuff from Barry’s (I hadn’t realised Obama was known as ‘Barry’ iin his younger days) all-American basketball buddies in Honolulu when at school would also be a good idea.
52- Australia elects a Kevin, Americans might elect a Barry. Will the Brits elect a Davo?
Someone earlier was saying they felt sorry for Colin Powell. I almost puked. I think of all the Iraq villains, he was the worst. The others are intrinsically evil people. And, as Ed Burke said, for evil to triumph it is necessary only that good men do nothing. In this case the “good man” did worse than nothing. He sold his credibility out and threw everything that is decent out the window. He will rot in hell with the rest. If he has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.
Or if you listen to this Flaming Lips clip (it needs to be VERY LOUD and you need to love people wearing furry animal costumes) Colin Powell is the Scarecrow, Ashcroft is the Tin Man and Rumsfeld is the Lion and they’re leading us down the Yellow Brick Road to Iraq. The song is George Bush’s Severed Head Army Mix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHsLZ7zYKsQ&feature=related
Sense has prevailed:
“MILWAUKIE, Ore. – Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10438.html
Some movement on RCP. Obama’s SD lead has moved up one from 21 to 22.
Meanwhile a Suffolk poll has just been released showing Obama’s Oregon lead over Clinton has been trimmed to +4. This follows an American Res Group poll released a couple of days ago showing Obama’s lead at +5. This leaves his average lead at 10.8 a drop of 2 since this morning.
Hillary’s KY lead has also been trimmed very slightly to 29.6
Diogenes – ‘Flaming Lips clip’ ? Crikey – don’t say that 6 times quickly! And with ‘furry animal costumes’. Is that sort of thing allowed on YouTube? Hmmm … I don’t think I should look.
FernyG @ 55 – Seems like a sensible call – that sort of declaration would gain nothing and could get some backs up unnecessarily. There’s no need to engage the Clinton camp now. Why jump back in the water when you’ve just climbed into the lifeboat?
And FernyG – Did you notice that amazing picture of the Oregon crowd on your link page- the tightly packed sea of faces? A lot of – dare I say it – white faces. I think the pics of that crowd might assist in closing the race off. It just has to resonate as a symbol of the overall mood for Barry that will carry right through into the general campaign.
RG @28,
1. I actually posted the up date for your information. A thank you would be nice. One free swipe is allowed.
2. You could have contacted the site owner instead of causing all this bother.
3. At least everyone knows you are a poor old Marxist which is good for an informed debate/discussion.
4. Is calling me names the Marxist doctrine or the your famous teaching skills coming out?
5. You got a lively discussion.
Cheers
Diogenes #54. Powell began hbis career as a 31 year old “investigator” who discovered nothing wrong at Mai Lai. That he was the considered a liberal woose in the Bush administration says something for the regime that’s been running then world for the last 8 years.
Just a footnote about the idiot Grover Norquist and his lunatic notion that all tax is theft. Essentially, most people in most major countries actually see income redistribution via taxation as THE purpose of government:
The Financial Times reports on a FT/Harris survey found a surprising consensus across eight countries in Europe and Asia, as well as in the US, that increasing income disparity was undesirable. Not surprisingly, respondents favored increasing taxes on the rich.
…and the numbers are astounding. We aren’t talking election majorities, we are talking 75-85% in Europe for example. (Japan was the lowest at 64%).
It seems the far right have a tendency to dream up ludicrous panaceas in fields like foreign policy and social policy, then by ignoring the evidence of what people actually want, shove them at the public and call any opposition the work of ‘liberals’ ‘appeasers’ or non-patriots.
Superdelegate Update
DNC Dwight Pelz (WA) has endorsed Obama bring his overall delegate lead back to 199 while dropping the pool of remaining delegates to 410.
Running tally of delegates needed to close the race:
Obama: 108 (26.3% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (74.9% of the pool)
A reality-check analysis (on Bloomberg) as to why we shouldn’t be too concerned over the VP choices:
Over the past 50 years, 17 men and one woman have been chosen by the major parties to run for the vice presidency of the U.S. Only one — Lyndon Johnson in 1960 — demonstrably affected the outcome of the presidential race.
This is worth remembering as the nation enters the quadrennial feeding frenzy over completing the tickets. It’s a big decision for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama and will send important signals; it probably won’t make much difference on Nov. 4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a8aZdQtitYJo
Getting this war up against Iran is proving a lot harder than the last one for Idiot Decider:
The George W Bush administration’s plan to create a new crescendo of accusations against Iran for allegedly smuggling arms to Shi’ite militias in Iraq has encountered not just one but two setbacks.
The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki refused to endorse US charges of Iranian involvement in arms smuggling to Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, and a plan to show off a huge collection of Iranian arms captured in and around the central city of Karbala had to be called off after it was discovered that none of the arms was of Iranian origin.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE16Ak02.html
…a little war for Macca to talk tough about would just be what the doctor ordered, eh?
Pity the Iraqis keep refusing to play ball.
jaundiced view at 63
However, many historical trends could be well and truly be moved to redundancy given that internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA.
KR at 64
Whatever happened to those good old days when you could count on the loyalty of your friends?
Catrina @ 65 – [internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA]
You might be right about a change in the election dynamics on what we’vee seen in the campaign so far Catrina – maybe Obama should choose as VP someone who would be a good web-cam dancer on YouTube.
66
Catrina
Remeber when puppet governments were exactly that, and danced on the end of a string to your tune?
But these modern day ones, aargh, they have no idea how to behave. Imagine, they act like it’s their country and that they can choose how to treat their neighbours.
It’s so uncouth!
Jen, you earlier posted about some grunt using the Koran for target practice. Well, here’s an interesting letter to the editor in today’s NYT, and it’s conclusion sums up just why they just cannot behave like this and hope to win anything in the ME:
Thomas L. Friedman quotes Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator, who has observed that in the Middle East, the United States is “not liked, not feared and not respected.”
My travels in the Middle East tell me that Mr. Miller’s assessment might be generous.
We have squandered the respect and admiration once felt for us in the Arab world, and we are now seen as aggressive militarists bent on imposing our will on the Arab people and their nations and blindly supporting Israel in its oppression of the Palestinians.
At all levels of Arab societies, one hears the mantra: “We like the American people. We do not like your government.”
Our sitting president is usually singled out as the prime culprit, but in truth, there are many who share the responsibility for our tarnished image.
We are in a struggle against terrorism and extreme fundamentalism. We cannot win without the help of the Arab world and the larger Muslim world. It is sheer madness to alienate them as we have done.
…should we put up GG’s response on the NYT to show the quality of Australian discourse?
Eh? LOL
GG#59 You are doing handstands and back flips to cover yourself, but it just won’t work. I posted a straightforward and purely psephological concern about a US site. You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse. Now I’m at fault because I didn’t notify the site of my concerns first “instead of causing all this bother”. What bother? I’m sure the author of the site is terribly upset that you and I have had an argument on an Australian website about the validity of his methodology (or to be more precise, I’ve questioned it and you’ve called me – for some obscure reason “Colonel Klink”).
The fact is that your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response. You read my original post and all you noticed was that I had had a go at Hillary for being “poll-driven” re her initial support for the Iraq War and that now (shock horror!) I was talking about polls as if I cared what they said. Unless you’re a dribbling cretin (which, despite your occasional stupidity I suspect you’re not) this was not a serious answer to the post but an off the cuff crack based on the fact that you’ve given up on any form of intervention except the frivolous and the gladiatorial. You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word “polls” and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
Fair enough at one level.
But you’ve since tried to alter your argument at least twice to cover up the initial abuse. Now your concern is my failure to contact the poor maligned Votemaster. To be honest, while I am curious to know why he/she has adopted the methods he/she has, it never occurred to me that he/she would be interested in an email from an Aussie. In any case I can’t find an address on the site. But who cares? If I had a go at Fox News, or CBS or MSNBC or the Wangaratta Courier would you demand that I emailed them first before besmirched their name by questioning their methodology?
PS I am poor and a Marxist, but I’m not a poor Marxist.
jaundiced view at 67
Its a lot more than just election dynamics – it goes straight into the hear of the principal of government for the people by the people. If you think about this from a geo-political perspective, the USA is on the cusp of having less internet users than China (at least in 2007 the numbers were 210 for USA and 162 for China). Accountability of government directly to the people outside of regular media channels is something very new and its this challenge that presents an opportunity for the Democrats to hold power for a really long stretch. In effect – you have the combination of the technology with the entry of new voters. The Republican Party will loose this election, and they will have to take the trip into the wilderness and rei9nvent themselves – but that will take a long time simply because they will be struggling to bring the new blood.
RB,for what it’s worth, what you’ve described is exactly what happened, but the behaviour is now so predictable I doubt I really need to tell anyone that.
RB, you were quite right the first time: dipstick.
Take it easy on GG Robert.
After all , he’s having to do all his own groundwork the last few days. No r/Ron,no Finns or no Glen to do the groundwork while he waits for his opening to abuse.
Poor sod is having to initiate , do a bit of hard work and finally get his big chance to abuse.
I bet the Ol Dog is sittin’ at the monitor pleading for his cultivated allies to return to battle.
Something to cheer up the hungry pack wolves.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,355756,00.html
Mmmmm, Faux News telling it like it REALLY is!
That’s gotta be a first.
Some breakdowns:
Rasmussen Reports regularly asks voters to identify themselves ideologically on both fiscal and social issues. The significance of this distinction is highlighted by the fact that just 11% of voters currently consider themselves fiscally liberal while 29% say they are liberal when it comes to social issues. An overview of how the nation’s voters break down along these lines was presented last fall.
Not surprisingly, among voters who are both fiscally and socially liberal, Obama leads McCain 84% to 6%. Among those who are conservative on both scales, McCain leads Obama 80% to 9%. As for those who consider themselves moderate on both fiscal policy and social issues, Obama is favored 54% to 36%.
When the views of those who are fiscally moderate but socially liberal are measured, Obama comes out on top, 72% to 21%. As for those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate, McCain leads 70% to 20%. The categories of voters mentioned in these two paragraphs cover 67% of the nation’s voters.
…moderates on both, like say independents? Nice.
That’s the easy response, KR. Actually, I read the article, and it says almost nothing. It might cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas.
Meanwhile, the RCP have added two SDs to Obama. Dom’t know who they are and I couldn’t be buggred at this hour trying to find out. No doubt the Goddess of superdelegates, Catrina, will enlighten us in due course.
77
Robert Bollard
Gotta admit I read it too, but was way too lazy to come up with anything as remotely amusing as “cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas”!
You can feel the desperation, knowing that they are going to get walloped in Nov and all that stands between them and annihilation is a very old man who’s mostly not even considered a real Republican by their base.
Good luck!
KR #76 What do they mean my “fiscally liberal”. Classic liberalism is pro-free market, but, of course, in the US “liberal” means something different. I would expect that there are a large number of Americans who are pissed off at NAFTA, at the consequences of neo-liberalism etc who are socially conservative (haven’t I just described Hillary’s base?). I find it hard to believe that only 11% are fiscally liberal. The other problem is whether the survey asked them: “are you fiscally liberal”, and the bitters answered “goddam I hate them liberals! They want to take my guns!”
RB,
I accept your sincere apology. However, I am sad that:
1.You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse.
2.You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word GG and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
3.Your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response.
The pleasure has been all yours.
Greeensborough Gardner at 80
Oh gosh! Oh my! Pot, kettle, black?
ROTFLOL
79
Robert Bollard
It’s fascinating the way they’ve inverted the English language, isn’t it?
I really can’t decide whether being ‘fiscally liberal’ is rude or not! LOL
(Although I took it to mean those who’d like to see higher taxation and more ‘liberal’ services)
81
Catrina
It’s a very special brand of irony, isn’t it?
Is this a hint of things to come? Obama tells Tennessee’s GOP: ‘Lay off my wife’.
The kid is drawing some lines in the sand.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24708462/
GG#80 regarding my “apology” – a joke told to me by an old Jewish Trotskyist (born in Palestine in 1917 – a good year).
Circa 1931, Mayday parade in Moscow. Stalin is in his element. After the march he announces to the crowd: “Comrades, I have a telegram from Trotsky! [Boos] It reads: ‘I’m wrong. You’re right. I should apologise.’” The crowd goes wild, but up the front a small Jewish man is jumping up and down with his hand in the air. Stalin ignores him at first, but the man is insistent. Eventually Stalin says: “What is the matter comrade?” “Comrade Stalin! Comrade Stalin! You read it wrong!” “What do you mean?” The man pleads with Stalin to let him read the telegram and, eventually, Stalin relents. He reads:
“I’m wrong?!!! You’re right?!!!! I should apologise?????!!!!!”
85
Robert Bollard
Delightful.
Apposite.
Pearls before swine, unfortunately.
OK.
Long day.
Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers (and slapping the children when they muck up)
Got that?
Night all.
RB, you’ re a very nice old Marxist.
Non! je ne regrette rien!
It’s goodnight to you. And it’s goodnight to him.
Kirribilli Removals at 87
Yes sir, will do!
KR,
You remind me of a chihuaha trying to root my ugg boot. I admire the intensity of effort and I love that earnest cross eyed look you get at a particular moment. However, it is never going to work out mechanically because whenever I get up for another beer you fall off and roll on your back with your legs in the air. All you can see is this tiny red dick. And that is my image of you.
Good night.
Greeensborough Gardner at 90
*slap*
Well worth reading….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/19/barackobama.uselections2008
Superdelegate Update
Barak Obama breaks through the 200 ceiling with his delegate lead over Hillary Clinton with the endorsement by Senator Robert Byrd from West Virginia.
As a consequence – the end game numbers shift a little and the pool shrinks just a little bit more with just 409 delegates undeclared (220 supers and 189 pledged). The number of delegates that Obama needs to win the nomination is now down to 107 while Clinton stays stead on 307. Looking ahead beyond the Kentucky and Oregon competitions the pool will shrink again to around 311. Obama will be looking to secure a further 59 delegates while Clinton will be staring down the barrel of a missing 257 delegates against a pool of just 311 (which is just 57 delegates away from the end-of-time).
Dio at 54: “If he (Colin Powell) has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.”
Amplifying Robert Bollard at 60,
Colin Powell was once Colonel Colin Powell of the 7th Americal Division in Vietnam, the propaganda unit that denied the My Lai massacre had taken place until in broke in the US MSM in the days when the MSM actually had a skerrick of integrity. Powell always sat comfortably on Uncle Sammy’s porch till he was “cut loose” to shill the propaganda that helped manufacture homegrown consent for the Iraq invasion and occupation with his shuck and jive powerpoint display at the UN in 2003.
“In his report Powell wrote: “In direct refutation of this portrayal is the fact that relations between Americal soldiers and the Vietnamese people are excellent.” Powell’s handling of the assignment was later characterized by some observers as “whitewashing” the atrocities of My Lai.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Lai_massacre
Another Superdelegate Update
Obama breaks though the 300 superdelegate endorsment count with the endorsement today from DNC Larry Gates from Kansas. Larry’s endorsement puts Obama’s super delegate total at 300.5 compared to Clinton’s 276.5. The pool of remaining delegates drops to 408.
The numbers (pledged, supers, and the Pelosi factor):
Obama: 1919
Clinton: 1718
The numbers needed to close the nomination:
Obama: 106 (26% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.2% of the pool)
But keep in mind the shake-up on Tuesday when 98 delegates are removed from the pool, leaving just 310 delegates in play. Although Clinton will probably gain some ground on Tuesday, it is for the most part just clutching at straws in that it will not come close to number of delegates that Obama has captured in the last week alone. Irrespective of all of that, these numbers will probably be shaken up on the 31 May when Michigan anf Florida come into play, but even then, the advantage to Clinton will not have an appreciable impact on the Obama lead.
Mon May 19: http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsQbWqf1hJwKcCwCVZubcZpX_b4F
Oh – poor Fido!
Yes, life’s cruel, Catrina, it’s always the innocents who end up taking the fall, like the hapless pooch, although I’ll wager this one didn’t go anywhwere near ugg boots.
There’s a whole bunch of mightily peeved GOP-lovin’ pet owners out there who are going to stay home in droves come November:)
———————–
“Clinton’s path looks something like this: Win huge in the remaining states (a massive margin in Kentucky and an upset in Oregon), close Obama’s 700,000-vote lead in the popular tally (without counting Florida and Michigan), and marshal these numbers to persuade superdelegates of Obama’s unelectability. Piece of cake.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191697/
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080519_thriller/
Enemy Combatant at 98
Re. the graveyard shift – LOL – yes, yes, and just remember I’ve still got a bunch of final nails in stock.
Hope they’re longuns. Couple of years ago my darlin’ daughter turned me on to NIN. Like ‘em a lot but I’m forbidden from mentioning it in front of her mates!
Better get back to the casket before the the sun comes up. Cheers.
98
Enemy Combatant
Except Clinton is NOT behind in the popular vote.
She says so:
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is entering the Kentucky and Oregon primaries on Tuesday with one of the most pugnacious political messages of her campaign: That she is ahead in the national popular vote when all votes are counted, including from the unsanctioned primaries in Michigan and Florida and that party leaders who have a vote as super-delegates should reflect this level of appeal.
This argument is of a piece with Mrs. Clinton’s increasingly populist image, as a fighter on behalf of average people, but it is also a debatable claim: Most tallies of the national popular vote put Mr. Obama in the lead, especially when Michigan and Florida are not counted.
NYT
So, there.
Who does she have doing the counting, Bosnian snipers?
I know that good help is hard to find, but you’d think for $20m you could at least hire someone who could actually count!
I fear she will not go quietly into the night.
How many Bosnian snipers does it take to count the popular vote?
One, and she’s nine, reads you poetry, but she CAN count!
But Obama wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan and he didn’t campaign in Florida: that tends to negate the legitimacy of Hillary’s argument! She’s clutching at straws, very thin ones!
Good morning Bludgers! How soon before Ron and his mates invade the board?
Speaking of elections: Labor in the UK will likely lose the Crewe & Nanwich byelection to the Conservatives on Friday. Gordon Brown is screwed: how soon before someone like David Miliband challenges, or will they let Brown carry the can for losing the 2010 election?
103
Progressive
Standing up and spinning a fantasy is a very good job interview style for POTUS. Look at the current job holder!
She really is toast now, and this stuff is just her trying to pull in a few more bucks before the final curtain.
I think she’s ably demonstrated that she’s more of the same and does not have the moral character for the job in 2008.
For anyone who needed proof, she’s delivered it.
Excuse the indulgence of an off topic post, but Bludgers, a toast to the PM:
KEVIN RUDD has established the strongest lead over an Opposition leader in three decades, just as Brendan Nelson’s feud with his Liberal rival, Malcolm Turnbull, makes their relationship almost unworkable.
A Herald/Nielsen poll taken after last week’s budget shows Mr Rudd leading Dr Nelson as preferred prime minister by 70 per cent to 17 per cent. It is the biggest lead since the poll began in 1972, and higher than the 42-point lead John Howard held over Simon Crean in May 2003.
“It’s the biggest hammering in history,” said the Nielsen pollster John Stirton.
SMH
Horatio, lower than Crean.
Suck on that Nelson.
Obama, needs to do better if he wants to be credible on foreign policy and especially in how he proposes to deal with America’s enemies.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/19/mccain_blast_obama_over_iran_t.html
Progresive @104,
It seems like the cuckoo is already in the nest.
Kirribilli Removals: it’s sad actually watching the disintergration of Hillary Clinton’s political career. I wish she’d have got out of this race much earlier with some dignity, followed the example set by Richardson, Edwards etc.
I guess the problem is the Clintons can’t accept defeat/reality.
Hopefully you and I will be celebrating the victory of President Elect Obama in November AND getting very drunk!
Folks, if you want a good laugh, check out the blog on Hillary’s site!
One wonders what those people over there are smoking LOL
It’s the number of delegates that matters, not who supposedly leads the popular vote tally.
Question for you Progressive and anyone else (just cause I love hypotheticals) if you were Hillary Clinton, when would you have pulled out of the race. HAs there been a really obviously time when she could have done it?
on the subject of god-bothering:
http://www.thenation.com/blogs/anotherthing/316971
Whats truly amazing is that in such a strong Democrat year is that McCain is competitive at all – says it all really as to just how weak a candidate Obama really is!!!
ppfffttt!!!!
ESJ, they need someone more like Kevin Rudd, yes?
from her own mouth: why she won’t quit!
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-this-is.html
116
elitebutterfly
Her claim is that she can win in November?
Well, guess what lady, you can’t win NOW, so bugger November, coz ya won’t be running if you can’t win NOW.
Sheeesh, talk about lawyer speak!
As for McCain being ‘competitive’, well let’s wait a few months until we have some consistent polls for Obama/McCain before we get too frisky. Although I know a couple here will be riding Eight Bells McCain to a second place and a short ride in the Equine Ambulance at the finish! LOL
110
Progressive
Hillary’s Kool Aid is just so past its use by date!
But come November Pro, we’ll be getting roaring drunk when Obama is elected.
Clinton is only fundraising now, she cannot possibly win. Although it will be a different atmosphere when she finally concedes that he’s won and starts playing with the team.
Zimmer unzipped
http://www.alternet.org/blogs/video/85827/
107
GG
What? Better than this:
“Senator Obama claimed that the threat Iran poses to our security is ‘tiny’ compared to the threat once posed by the former Soviet Union,” McCain said. “Obviously, Iran isn’t a superpower and doesn’t possess the military power the Soviet Union had. But that does not mean that the threat posed by Iran is insignificant.”
Obama did not use the word “tiny” to describe the threat, but to describe the size of Iran, Cuba and Venezuela compared with the former Soviet Union.
“Iran, Cuba, Venezuela — these countries are tiny compared to the Soviet Union. They don’t pose a serious threat to us the way the Soviet Union posed a threat to us,” Obama had said.
“And yet we were willing to talk to the Soviet Union at the time when they were saying, ‘We’re going to wipe you off the planet.’ And, ultimately, that direct engagement led to a series of measures that helped prevent nuclear war, and over time allowed the kind of opening that brought down the Berlin Wall.”
…now, that’s called an argument based on the facts, and not peddling fear to keep your hegemonic ambitions fueled for constant war.
By the way, in his own voice, the voice of ‘experience’:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEtZlR3zp4c
119 Good work codger. Talk about a straw in the wind. Can McCain keep the MSM on a leash? I doubt it.
119
codger
hey Codge, you beat me to it by 3 minutes, but I had more to type!
The viral vortex of the internet is spinning furiously! LOL
William Bowe # 25
May 19th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
“You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.”
No wonder, just three days I’m away & this lot of rampant academia inspired elitist lattee sipping butterflys have turned an intellectual thread on the US election , into a daffodil nest of giggling pixys & feline chirping butterfly insults.
The sole purpose of the Democrat Primarys is to select the ‘best’ Democrat candidate to win POTUS. ”Best” means the by far more electable.To argue otherwise as the Obama supporters have put, guts the very meaning of a political Party’s very existence… to win office.This basic point the Obamabots have been demolished on from day one). The ObamaRealists at least have conceded this. Clearly Hillary is the ‘best’ candidate on this priority criteria.
Whether or not Obama has better ‘character’ or ‘message’ (both of which I dispute in any event) are immaterial to the above Democrat Party’s prime objective. Historically the most electable candidate also wins the delegate race
The 2008 Democrat Primarys are unique because this is not the case , because the ‘best’ candidate (Hillary by far more electable) may end up with 49% of the delegates to Obama’s 51% (who is br far less electable) & obama only holds that 51/49 lead on the back of one ethnic voting bloc , his ‘own’ , a 12% minority in the population who have decisively voted 90%+ for Obama especially in key primarys.
All the credible electability criteria shows Hillary as by far the most electable which is the sole reason Obambots have never credibily challenged this fact
Beit the the swing state polls , all key demographics , other psephology factors, the only independent vote map by a registered Democrat,and Hillary’s majority voter support US-wide on the white working poor vote , as well as all white votes , all Hispanic votes & all Asian votes. Any sensible political analysis would conclude the ‘best’ candidate is clearly Hillary.
Team Obama have ‘played’ 90%+ ethnic race bloc to ‘play’ the Democrat Primary system against its fundamental purpose & against the Party’s interests (Hillary would have thrashed a white Obama) , and now compound this misuse of the same bloc as intimidatory desertion threats to secure SD’s for Obama. The SD’s should remedy this rort by voting in bloc for Hillary , the ‘best’ (the most electable) Candidate on merit , not on race.
As for ‘character’ (only some of his sketetons have descloed here), his
numerous dispeputable associations would render Obama completely ineligible
for any Government appointed position or Statutory position in ‘oz ,let alone for POTUS.
The ObamaRealists have been gradually quietened by the Obamabots increasingly becoming ‘bitter’ at the exposure of these twin voting/SD ethnic rorts , their now naked intellegentias elitist shallowness & their inability to articulate in detail the 3 core ‘one liner’ themes (more apparently hollow) of Obama’s candidature
GG at 107 [Obama, needs to do better if he wants to be credible on foreign policy]
Not a problem. He’s used McCain’s attack as a springboard for his own message again. The kid is not taking a backward step against McCain, and his line is a very strong one that ties in with the concept of the need for change. This spat about Iran wedges McCain – all it does is paint him with Bushwash.
“OBAMA FIRES BACK AT MCCAIN ”
Obama responded to McCain’s criticism of recent comments the Illinois senator made about Iran, linking the presumptive GOP nominee to what he called the failed policies of George Bush.
…
Obama asked what Bush and McCain were afraid of when it came to dealing directly with Iran. “Demanding that a country meets all your conditions before you meet, before you meet with them — that is not a strategy. It is just naïve, wishful thinking,” he said. “I’m not afraid that we will lose some propaganda fight with a dictator. It’s time for America to win those battles because we have watched George Bush lose them year after year after year.”
40-love Obama.
The link for 124
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/19/1041108.aspx
123
Ron
You can ramble on Ron, but the fact is the voters don’t actually agree with you, and Obama has outflanked your horse, come around the outside, and raced home to the finish line ahead.
Your nag’s all but finished.
Do get over it, or do we have to see you bang on about Hillary being the ‘best’ candidate until Obama wins in November?
Really, Ron, we know what you think, but it’s your opinion, and it has no bearing on the fact that she is losing, has lost, is out.
Move on, Ron, move on.
124
jaundiced view
Even the Iraqis are wedging McCain, as they refuse to play this “axis of evil” gobshite stuff that Republicans use to scare the kiddies.
Obama just reminds everyone who the adult is whenever he addresses the issue and shows the utter hyperbolic nonsense coming out the Republicans for what it is.
JV, we’ll no doubt hear this line a few times:
“John McCain is right that the greatest threat we face is a terrorist with a nuclear weapon — that’s why when he was busy supporting a war against a country that had no nuclear weapons, I was busy in the Senate working with Republican Dick Lugar to pass legislation to secure loose nuclear weapons and loose nuclear materials around the world!”
Three trillion dollars later…!
Yay! We’re Pixies! GG is a hobgoblin, ESJ is a troll (nothing new there) and Ron is….the Jabberwock! Watch him, eyes aflame, whiffle through the tulgey wood and burble as he comes.
KR @ 128 – I hope we do hear that line repeated regularly – it’s McCain’s weakest point. But there are plenty of other McCain weak points to target – not least the economy.
Another huge win for Obama! Endorsement from the Decemberists (one of the best alternative rock bands in the world). Those 75,000 people in Portland weren’t there for Obama. They were there to see the Decemberists. Obama has proven very adept at getting brilliant indy bands to perform for him and booth the youth turnout.
http://www.pitchforkmedia.com/article/news/50740-photos-the-decemberists-at-barack-obama-rally-portland-or-051808
Dio #131 What’s he doing with young people in booths? Are you trying to start a rumour?
Diogenes
First it was the Flaming Lips, now the Decemberists.
I’m starting to suspect you’re a med student rather than a professional….
McCain’s campaign slogan has been released:
“WE are the only ones who can save you from the disaster we’ve created!”
Ron
Would you accept that Hillary also got a disproportionate vote from white women? Do you see this as a ‘bloc’?
130
Diogenes
The Decemberists of Stephen Colbert guitar face off fame?
Like, wow, man, that Obama MUST be cool.
134
Yo ho ho
Oh no, Yo ho ho, you can’t call he Menopausal Bloc a ‘bloc’, that sexist! But you can Obama’s ‘block vote’ a bloc, that’s different.
133
Ferny Grover
That’s slightly better than the anti-depressant TV ad slogan they chose recently!
Maybe you should send it to them. It at least has one element of truth to it.
Here’s a comment from a real voter in the US which provides an insight into attitudes underpinning the US voters approach to security issues.
“Here’s the bottom line: Iran wants the bomb. Period. They aren’t gonna voluntarily stop until they have it. Sanctions aren’t gonna work. Neither will “negotiations” and “diplomacy”, nor any of the other fig leaves that the pacifists typically trot out. The mullahs want their bomb and they’re just stalling for time. Anyone who seriously believes otherwise is an idiot.
Given this situation, we have two choices here:
1) Continue to dither, hem & haw, taking the “high road” while the mullahs get their bomb, then cross our fingers and hope to God that they don’t ever actually use it (or, more likely, give it to a terrorist group to use while they sit back and watch). This is what you’ll get with President Obama.
2) Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble. This is what you’ll get with President McCain.
There is no third option, people.
For my part, I’m going with #2, and it’s not even close. Anyone who has ever studied Shia islam knows that devout shia believe that for The Mahdi to return to Earth and usher in an era of perfect peace & justice, there has to first be a period of global conflagration to wipe out the existing order.
Barack Obama showed his ignorance when he stated that Iran isn’t as big a threat as the Soviets were. The Soviets, at the end of the day, valued life more than ideology. The religious zealots running Iran value ideology more than life. Religious extremists are capable of actions that normal people cannot comprhend, and this is precisely why the idea of an Iran with nuclear weaponry is patently unacceptable to all but the most delusional, pie-in-the-sky liberals.
John McCain understands this. Barack Obama does not.”
Some recent numbers:
RCP has bumped Obama’s SD lead up 3 to 25.
Most recent Oregon Polls: RCP average is Obama by 12.0
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV 45 41 Obama +4.0
PPP (D) 05/17 – 05/18 1296 LV 56 38 Obama +18.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 – 05/18 627 LV 55 42 Obama +13.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/16 600 LV 50 45 Obama +5.0
Portland Tribune 05/08 – 05/10 400 LV 55 35 Obama +20.0
Most recent KY polls: RCP av is Clinton by 29.2
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV 51 25 Clinton +26.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/15 600 LV 65 29 Clinton +36.0
SurveyUSA 05/09 – 05/11 641 LV 62 30 Clinton +32.0
Research 2000 05/07 – 05/09 500 LV 58 31 Clinton +27.0
Rasmussen 05/05 – 05/05 800 LV 56 31 Clinton +25.0
And, finally, Slate has docked Hillary another 0.1 to sink her chances to 1.6%.
Here Sharky, Sharky Sharky….!
YHH, that brings up the profound question: are menopausal women intelligent individuals who can see past Hillary’s gender, or are black people only capable of seeing the colour of Obama’s skin?
Of course white women are thinking people if they prefer Hillary, but black people are just tribal jungle bunnies who can only identify with someone of their skin colour.
It’s obviously not possible for black people to prefer Obama’s message and character over Hillary’s on objective criteria, is it?
138
Greensborough Growler
A truly well informed commentator, huh Gruffy?
This is exactly the type of tripe that pushes Iran to want one, and the kind of mindless idiocy that’s put them in Iraq for no advantage and at endless cost.
This poster is so uninformed about the realities of Shia, Iran, and the geopolitics that it’s not worth even starting.
If this swill is the limit of your understanding, (and I haven’t seen otherwise) can I suggest you spend a few years reading about the regional players and the history of the place?
You just might, with effort, learn something.
135 KR
Yes, the Decemberists had a guitar faceoff with Stephen Colbert. The group has created a new genre of music called “hyperliterate rock” or “thesaurus rock” due to the ultra-genius IQ of its lead singer, Colin Meloy. About the only time I get out a dictionary now is when I’m listening to a new album of theirs. What other rock group uses the words tamaracks, palanquin, falderal and chaparral in a single song!
This just reinforces the stereotype of Obama and his supporters being intellectual elites but WTF, I don’t care!
KR
Ron’s assertion that Obama’s leading position comes from the black vote (10% as he says) sort of got me thinking (as much as i can these days). I assume that if the black vote is 10%, i can’t imagine the Hispanic vote being much more (let’s say 10% as well). Chuck in the other racial groups (Asian etc) and let’s say the minorities come to 50% of the vote.
That would mean that white woman are around 25% of the rest. And i’ve been led to believe they vote strongly for Clinton. And she still lost.
Of course, this is horrendously crude and uninformed pseudo-psephology. And i apologise to all for even submitting this comment. Just thinking out loud i guess.
“The Soviets, at the end of the day, valued life more than ideology.”
If that line alone didn’t alert you to the level of uninformed shite in the post, GG, then nothing will.
Someone on Daily Kos has made a good case for Al Gore to be Obama’s Veep – as an experienced white Southerner with labour ties and a burning interest in fighting global warming.
So, in the lull before the OR/KY storm we’re distracting ourselves with musical appreciation?
In that case, I’m working at the moment to the accompaniment of The Blue Nile’s ‘High’ album, having just enjoyed David Gilmour’s “On an Island.” Nice.
145
Phil Robins
“a burning interest in fighting global warming”…now, that’s a unique way of putting it! LOL
I don’t think Gore is even remotely interested in being a polly again, but an interesting argument.
138 – GG ["Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble."]
That apocryphal citizen advocating the same arrogant and dangerous intervention is clearly one of the 28% of his fellow citizens who believe the US is headed in the right direction. In the meantime Obama is addressing the other 72% about the change in direction they want.
142
Diogenes
Dio, that just proves that the world is running out of rhymes and these poor deluded people have turned to the Thesaurus for inspiration! LOL
Now, another thing to worry about: Peak Rhymes!
Growler-
“2) Send in the US Air Force and the US Special Forces to reduce Natanz to a pile of rubble. This is what you’ll get with President McCain.”
yep. That works.
KR,
Trying to root my boot again! I down loaded EC’s little cartoon @96 (hat tips EC) and put put a tiny red circle in texta in an appropriate spot and pinned the whole thing to my nearest board. Every time you slag me off, I’ll be thinking of the tiny little red prick you are.
What it is , is an example of mainstream opinion. Your denialist bomastic burblings seek to ignore the reality that there are deeply held views that endorse the comment above. Obama’s bleatings to date will in no way persuade them that he has their national security interests at heart.
If Obama wants the nomination and the POTUS then he will need to develop a better communications strategy to get these voters in the boat.
So you want a POTUS who will pander to ignorance and fear, GG? You’ve already got one of those.
Leadership is not about getting those folk on board; it’s about showing the nation why those views are dangerous and downright wrong. Obama’s doing that
GG, enough cyber bullying. You might make KR/wrist.
How does Obama appeal to those kinds of voters without becoming a facsimile of the neocons? What would be your strategy?
FG,
The point is that by not engaging them, you ended up with W.
Who is he convincing? A bunch of left leaning bloggers in the antipodes . That really counts!
Growler- as well as we sad, deluded little lefties on PB it would seem that Obama is having a bit of an impact with a few others in the US. I imagine you saw the photo of the rally fro example,and have seen his lead in teh pledged delegates. Of course, it is possible that all these millions of supporters are as stupid as we are, but I think not.
And one of the reasons he has such support is that he does not support your option 2. Thank the gods.
TW,
One of the reasons for Labor’s success last year was that when Libs brought in their Work Choices legislation, all of a sudden, a lot of previous Howard supporters arked up and became receptive to Labor. Once they were listening about one thing, they started listening about other matters and the rest, as they say is history.
I sense that the Obama campaign has a touch of the KRs (I’m right, your wrong, get stuffed). They probably need to embrace Hillary in a meaningful way since she has the keys to the demographic they need to be talking with in order to win.
That would be a start.
GG [Who is he convincing?]
– 72% of the voting population to start with – those who are not happy with the US’s direction, and I suggest more to follow as the campaign proceeds, as McCain is continually covered in Bushwash.
It’s worth considering that, depending on how heavily Puerto Rico turns out and Hillary’s margin there, Hillary may well end up with the overall lead in popular vote, however counted.
And then how does the Democratic Party allow a candidate to win the popular vote but not the nomination? Rember Al “I-won-but-they-screwed-me” Gore?
A really handy tool to forecast popular vote is here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html
Yo ho ho #143
“Just thinking out loud i guess.”
Don’t , your maths are so bad , Pancho has probably gulped on his lattee
GG
#138
“the most delusional, pie-in-the-sky liberals.”
Ron: they are here GG ! , the ‘butterfly doves” , anti US , anti the Western Countries military shield without which their intellegentia precious-soaked Ivory Towers would be a dustbin , never realising its wise threat of or use of that military power protects these FL looneys simply as a coincidence of protecting the majority the sensible peoples & notwithstanding dumb POTUS’s like Bush.
of course , Obama they dream will dismantle this eyesaw & make loving oratorial sermon to the rulers of Syria , Iran & the like as they think the yanks have replaced one dumb POTUS with worse actor than Reagan who wa serious.
of course this obama foreign affairs manifesto you notice mentions zero of forcing Burma’s hand on 2 million starving nor the famines of Ruwanda or Darfur ,
oh I forgot , they are not important to the Obama big picture message
Ron-
what?
MB, Hillary has used the electabilty and popular vote arguments all year and guess what, she’s lost the delegate count. She can bang on about it all she likes, the SDs are breaking Obama’s way, and after tomorrow she will need 80% of remaining delegates. Aint going to happen.
How does the Democrat Party deal with it: simple, its the delegate count that secure the nomination as it has always been. You cant change the rules because you dont know the outcome. Comparing this to Gore is ridiculous
sorry I meant dont like the outcome
Poor Gruffy, he can’t tell the difference between hurling abuse and actually having an argument based on facts.
Obama HAS made a better argument, as have the bloggers here, but you insist that he hasn’t.
You are really trying to be a mini-Ron, aren’t you.
So don’t come the raw prawn with this crap Gruffy, you got slapped yesterday for being a dipstick and you’re at the same old rubbish again today.
VERY slow learner.
Jen, if you refuse to take my advice and dont read or reply to Ron, fair enough. Could you spare us the incredulity though, it’s getting a bit tiresome
Ron
Appreciate the constructive criticism. Glad you were nice enough to point out the flaws rather than just dismiss like an obamabot.
Andrew- sorry. Just a slip up. I will try and control myself in future.
JV,
This “heading in the right direction” question was a crock when Morgan used it here and I am not convinced it is any more valid in the US context. I can only refer you to polls like Vote Master that show McCain in front of Obama in a head to head.
Re the huge crowds, I can only refer you to recent elections in Australia like Hewson in 93 and Gough in 1975. Crowds were huge and energised and excited, but the ones that didn’t turn up, voted them out. Perhaps large mobs of screaming people scare the horses.
GG 167
The biggest crowd Obama has had was in Pennsylvania (100,000 +), about three days before Hillary thumped him by 10%!
Sigh what is wrong with Geraldine Ferraro.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/us/politics/19women.html?partner=rssuserland&emc=rss&pagewanted=all
Ms. Ferraro, who clashed with the Obama campaign about whether she made a racially offensive remark, said she might not either. “I think Obama was terribly sexist,” she said.
True Diogs, but she was meant to thump him by 20%.
Dio
i don’t think you realise how good a -10 point result was for Obama in Penn. The state is tailor made to prefer Hillary as a Dem candidate and it was right in the middle of the Wright boogaloo scare.
He closed a 20 point margin to 10.
I am not surprised at all that Pennsylvania (with Ed Rendall helping enormously) preferred Clinton to Obama.
That doesn’t mean that they will prefer McCain to Obama though.
Obama is already polling a comfortable victory there.
In a big boost to Obama’s economic credibility Warren Buffet endorses him.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080519/ts_alt_afp/germanyusinvestpoliticsbuffett_080519163709;_ylt=AoMZ0By0QIhdx_88YO8En7Fh24cA
GG @ 167 [his “heading in the right direction” question was a crock]
Fair enough -try these more direct poll questions about Iraq then. It doesn’t seem to matter which pollster asks the question or how it is framed, the proportions ar about the same as the ‘right direction’ question. Stilll cuts around 65-70/30-35 against the Repugs.
http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm
As to the current general election polls, don’t worry, all will be well once the Dems nomination is official, and certainly by November the electoral college votes will be sewn up. McCain simply can’t escape the Bushwash.
Crowds often mean little, agreed, but the Oregan crowd was about 50% up on the number Kerry got, so it’s at least an indicator of the enthusiasm levels Obama is generating.
What is it with you people? I was just pointing out the GG’s comment was true. A big crowd does not mean you will win the state. Nothing more, nothing less. I’m beginning to understand how GG, Finns and Ron feel.
oops wasn’t finished lol
Geraldine Ferraro is the face of the ugly side of feminism. She is supporting Hillary Clinton because she is woman. Despite the fact older white women are practically the largest voting bloc if not nationally then within the democratic party. Despite this she shows the extent of her hypocrisy by saying Obama is lucky to be black despite this logic applying better to Hillary than Obama.
As another article i read suggested Obama did well because he framed himself as post racial Hillary did no present herelf as post gender. I put that Ferraro is the sexist and the irony of being called racist didn’t make her realise that is what she does to people when she calls them sexist.
Scotty @ 170,
Slap her down. A politician that tells the truth. Can’t have none of that, eh!
Diogenes-
you seem a tad defensive. I was simply pointing out that while you are right (and i know what you are saying is true), that his support is increasing even in Hillary’s safe seats, and the crowds he is attracting does seem to indicate this.
The Democratic Party have a dismal history of voting with the heart and not considering if the nominee can win. A history of nominating left-wing candidates, candidates that the Party faithful loves but the electorate can’t stomach. They then get flogged in the general.
Think Dukakis (goodness, was that ten whole states you took in the general?) Mondale (oops, only one state!) and McGovern (kept to one state by NIXON!)
Interestingly, for the last forty years, it’s only the centerists that the party has nominated – Clinton and “peanut-farmer” Carter – that have managed a win.
Oh well. The world will have to suffer McSame for four years. Hillary 2012!
JV,
1. But how important is Iraq in the overall context of the election? Is it a cut through issue, or something that people have a strong view but not a vote decider?
2. Gunner polls “hmm”. Margin of error high I hear.
3. Negatives = Positives. Positives = negatives. The answer is a pineapple at this time.
179
MB
Tell ya what MB, if Obama only wins 1 state in November, I’ll eat America, the whole damn lot of it! LOL
Seasoned US election watchers have said it over and over, there’s no use reading polls in May.
But what is in evidence is a resounding turnout for Dems, three safe house seats lost, and a startling candidate that’s bringing them out and raising money for full-on run in November.
And all this against a candidate who is not even considered a Republican by some of the 3G crowd (god/gays/guns)!
Just calmly watch, while the game ratchets up into serious play mode.
Sorry folks, it’s whinge time:
1. Since when did a thread about Clinton vs Obama on an electoral website, become about whether the USA should ensure enduring peace in the Middle East by starting another major war there (gee, the last one went so well…)? Neither candidate is advocating bombing Iran. (In case anyone pulls me up, HRC’s “obliterate” response was to the question “What would you do if Iran launched a nuclear attack on Israel?”) So shouldn’t the debate go off to shouldwebombiran.blogspot.com, or somewhere it might be vaguely relevant?
2. All of the debatin’ about electoral-vote.com vs someone else’s site, is irrelevant. Sorry to shout: IRRELEVANT. You are talking about figures from May 2008, or earlier. The election is in November. Newsflash: 4 months ago, HRC was leading Obama by almost exactly 2-to-1 as preferred Democratic candidate. The figures are relevant to talk about general trends, identify the true battleground states, discuss how McC and O are each planning to get to 270, look states that Obama is gunning to win where HRC would have struggled and those where he’s weaker than her, but to argue ‘this site gives him only 239 electoral votes, so he’ll lose’; ‘no, this site gives him 271, so he’ll win’, 6 months before the darn election, is just stoopid. And anyone who has sleptwalked through a single campaign in their whole lives should know it. Give me some polling from September 2008, and there’ll be something worth debating about.
William may have stopped caring, but I can’t stop.
MB,
“Those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it”.
179
MB
that’s ‘lost by the Republicans’ by the way.
What we need to note is that the last 8 years have seen the US move so far to the right that even many Republicans (real conservatives) are shocked.
There has not been anything this extreme in 40 years, so you would have to expect that those 80% who think the country is going down the toilet would largely want to head in the opposite direction to some degree.
Or in other words, if a northern liberal can’t win this one, then it’s never going to happen. I think you could argue that this election is really being held under some very different circumstances: recession, inflation, Iraq, corrupt Republicans and the nutbag Neocons still punching the same buttons. Oh, and Rovian politics is utterly discredited.
Democrats have an inspiring candidate, a well funded machine, and lots of favourable polls.
Calm.
Keep the faith! LOL
182
SimonH
181
“Seasoned US election watchers have said it over and over, there’s no use reading polls in May.”
SNAP!
Beatcha!
Hmm, those who keep doing the same thing and getting the same result are very slow learners.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes, as we all know. Assuming that this election is like all the others is not using history or the evidence, it’s just a silly argument for nothing ever changing.
SimonHAggrieved,
See you in September.
A very wise man once said,
“You have an astounding lack of self-awareness sometimes, KR.”
188
Greensborough Growler
And I said I don’t suffer nongs, and you prove my case.
I would have thought William’s comment an appropriate slap down.
We still haven’t heard your “gay baiting” defence.
So, it looks like you caught some of that “cognitive dissonance” thingo. In your case, it has turned your brain to black pudding and crap is oozing from your mouth.
Poor little red prick.
Gruffy, I have no idea what you’re talking about, which wouldn’t be the first time.
As for your insults, like I said, you are a complete nong.
THE END
GG 2 180
1. Iraq – One of the main reasons the Repugs are so on the nose nationally.
2. early polls – There cannot be any direct, unfiltered nominee v nominee polling yet – so a little speculation as to what this polling will show is justifiable until then. Do you predict an increase in Obama’s vote against McCain once Barry is the Dem nominee, or not?
3. ? …
It’s certainly not only the Iraq issue damaging the Repugs – For example:
Quinnipiac University Poll. May 8-12, 2008
“Do you think the United States economy is in a recession now?”
Answers: 71% – Yes; 24% – No
(Including a majority ‘Yes’ among Repug voters)
As to the parties themselves:
ABC News/Washington Post Poll. May 8-11, 2008.
“Overall, which party — the Democrats or the Republicans — do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?” [Options rotated]
Democrats -53 Republicans – 32
I think there’s a bit of support there to my contention that the Dems support will rise once Obama is confirmed.
MB @ 159: I couldn’t plug any figures in for Puerto Rico, not even 2 million voters on a HRC margin of 25%, that would give HRC “the overall lead in popular vote, however counted”. The fact is that there are 15 different ways of counting the ‘popular vote’ on that calculator. So if anyone isn’t ahead in all 15 of them come 3 June (and there’s only one person who can be), then any claim to be the voters’ choice will be so riddled with asterisks and footnotes as to lose most of its persuasive force. There is a problem with the data in the calculator, anyways: it reduces Obama’s lead by 50,000 if you ‘Use WA Primary’, but in fact he won the state’s Primary by 40,000.
In addition, 3 of the 15 methods listed involve giving an anti-democratic windfall to HRC in Michigan. To argue that full legal force should be given to a plebiscite that was known to have no force at the time it was held, where the candidate’s opponent wasn’t even on the ballot resulting in an inevitable almost-100% victory, is an absurd parody of ‘democracy’ worthy of Mugabe at his worst. How anyone purporting to advocate a democratic counting of votes could plump for it, is beyond me.
Al Gore’s argument was never that he had won the national popular vote so the election should have been awarded to him. He always knew the game he was playing, and the game was electoral college votes. The structural weaknesses of the US Presidential election system that make it ripe for reform, was/is an issue for a different forum. His argument was that on a proper count, he (would have) won Florida, giving him the majority of EC votes.
Similarly, HRC and O have always played the game knowing that the game was delegates. If you lose that, you lose the game; and everything else is just accumulating statistics. Like if you’re one point behind at the final siren, to say ‘we had more disposals, more inside 50s, more tackles, better efficiency of ball use, plus we had some injuries and the umpiring went against us, and so you might be pretending to enjoy a narrow technical victory but the fact is you were outplayed’ sounds like exactly what it is: irrelevant sour grapes.
The statistics are only not irrelevant so far as you can use them to persuade superdelegates, but the number of SDs who will decide only on (a certain calculation of) the national vote count, will be slim indeed. The Pelosi Club, on my understanding, is promising to follow the pledged delegate winner.
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re fucked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re fucked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
Let’s face it JV- if the Democrats can’t pull this off , no matter who the candidate is, with the economy in recession, the war, global warmimng and a complete moron as POTUS, then they deserve to lose.
JV, it’s seeping in:
END OF AN ERA?….David Frum is pretty pessimistic about the current state of movement conservatism, but George Packer says that David Brooks is even more dejected:
When I met David Brooks in Washington, he was even more scathing than Frum. Brooks had moved through every important conservative publication — National Review, the Wall Street Journal editorial page, the Washington Times, the Weekly Standard — “and now I feel estranged,” he said. “I just don’t feel it’s exciting, I don’t feel it’s true, fundamentally true.” In the eighties, when he was a young movement journalist, the attacks on regulation and the Soviet Union seemed “true.” Now most conservatives seem incapable of even acknowledging the central issues of our moment: wage stagnation, inequality, health care, global warming. They are stuck in the past, in the dogma of limited government. Perhaps for that reason, Brooks left movement journalism and, in 2003, became a moderately conservative columnist for the Times. “American conservatives had one defeat, in 2006, but it wasn’t a big one,” he said. “The big defeat is probably coming, and then the thinking will happen. I have not yet seen the major think tanks reorient themselves, and I don’t know if they can.” He added, “You go to Capitol Hill — Republican senators know they’re f**ked. They have that sense. But they don’t know what to do. There’s a hunger for new policy ideas.”
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
When abuse is sophisticated, humorous or otherwise imaginative, it can be quite tasty. Fact. But when it’s poorly prepared and dished up cold without a hint of spice or flavour, it’s just plain dull and forgettable.
William @ 25:
*You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.*
Sorry, neither do I, so my reading and contributions are ceasing, temporarily I hope.
I can go down to the local primary school for nothing if I want to watch squabbling.
JV,
Sorry if 3 was obscure. My point was that sometimes a strenghth can be a weakness in some eyes e.g. huge crowds indicating support and momentum on the one hand versus alarm that mobs are taking over the streets. And vice versa.e.g. Rudd was a wimp to the Lib supporters versus his stud muffin status with women.
I am sure you are convinced about the merits of your hopes for the campaign.
I always contend that predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future.
Ooooh, David Brooks said a rude word!
Anyway, this idea that this is the end of Reaganism, of star wars, of pre-emptive wars, of expanding to the ends of the universe militarism is just beginning to sink in! LOL
They are, in the word of Brooks: f**ked!
So much for history repeating itself. It doesn’t. And this year will draw to a close so much balloney that’s been peddled for a couple of decades: into the bin it goes.
The Idiot Decider has proven one thing: that Reaganism and neoconservative philosophy is utterly bankrupt, and they should know, they’ve tried it out on their country for the last 8 years, and it’s almost bankrupt too.
The argument re Iran is an interesting one. The thing is, voters generally do not vote on logical grounds, so the logic of either argument is in fact pretty irrelevant to the politics. To declare my bias, I am in the ‘The Iranian leadership is irrational and thus Iran cannot be allowed to develop the nuclear bomb’ camp.
On the politics, McCain appeals to the fears of a substantial block of voters who might vote Democrat on other grounds (the economy, for example). Personally, I do not think that foreign affairs issues such as this will feed much into the November vote, but any advantage – however tiny – that comes with this issue belongs to McCain.
202
David Gould
After a concerted lie and fear mongering about WMD, I’d suspect a lot of people won’t be buying their foreign policy from Republicans for quite a while.
Look at N Korea, supposedly has a bomb. Pakistan (a stable place? Military that backs the Taliban?). Has the world descended into chaos?
As for the Iranian regime, I’d contend from watching them over the last five years, that they are a damn sight more rational than GWBush! But that’s a long argument.
In the end, if Iran wants to play the game, then they will need to negotiate some rules, and that’s what will happen. In the meantime, getting all bellicose with them simply plays into their hands, because a VERY large segment of the Iranain population would dearly love to be rid of the mullahs, but when the US is shaking a fist at the country, it only helps to keep them in power.
It’s a much more subtle game that anything Macca has tallked about, and he’s just pandering to the ‘bomb ‘em’ brigade.
Hardly the thinking side, is it?
Just when you thought it was safe to go back on the blog…….
HE’s BACK…..and HE’s SPEWING , .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgtsai2aKY
Check out all the white kiddies in the front row, Ronaldo, they’re all Obama voters now!
Kirribilli Removals,
Again, people tend not to rationally weigh up such arguments. While many people will not be believing Republican foreign policy arguments any more, key demographics will certainly respond to fear of Iran. Whether that fear overcomes other factors – such as the economy – it is my contention that the issue is a winner for McCain. It will not make more people vote Democrat. It might – might – make more people vote Republican.
Jen @ 194 & KR [end of an era]
Either the Dems will deserve to lose – if they stuff up from here – or it will be proof that US voters will only vote Repug – either the GOP itself or when the Dems adopt the persona of the GOP.
At least Obama represents a potential change to the filthy quagmire of US reactionary conservatism. I can’t see the stage better set in decades for a vote for change. Obama will do his best to lead towards that. If somehow he fails, then it will be a pity, because the Repugs simply are worthless.
GG – [alarm that mobs are taking over the streets.]
Hahahaha. Did you see the photos of the Oregon crowd? That was a ‘mob taking over the streets’????
Come on.
They were so calm I don’t know how Obama got them excited enough to leave home. Compared even to the Sydney anti-Iraq war rally, it was a passive mass of sychronised observers on Mogadon.
I would also suggest that anyone suggesting that those inside Iran have a chance of getting rid of the mullahs within the next decade or so is dreaming. My girlfriend has many Iranian friends – mainly Ba’hai – and the situation inside Iran is not good for opponents of the regime. The only way that they can overthrow the mullahs is with violence, and without outside support that woud fail as things currently stand.
204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!
207
David Gould
It’s more fractious than ever in Iran today DG. These mad mullah regimes can’t rule a country in the 21st century and repress them like feudal times so easily. I’d argue that there’d be an even bigger pro-Western feeling if the US hadn’t camped (uninvited) right next door.
There might be a big pro-Western feeling. However, there is no viable pathway from that feeling to overthrowing the mullahs.
A thoughtful article by a Clinton critic on why she keeps going:
“In the end, no one begrudges a bitter-ender. Robert E. Lee is not vilified because he fought on too long, wasting lives and all of it, mind you, in the cause of slavery. In Israel, Masada is venerated because the zealots held out and killed themselves rather than surrender. Thermopylae is not considered a defeat but a lesson to us all: Never give up!
This is precisely what Hillary Clinton is doing. She is staying in the race because losing comes soon enough anyway and life teaches that anything can happen. Sure, she’s hurting the Democratic Party a bit and, sure, she’s inflicting some damage on Barack Obama. He will not only hear echoes of Clinton’s attacks out of the mouth of John McCain, but on the Internet and elsewhere they will be recycled so that Clinton herself will be the attacker. Nothing dies on YouTube.
But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_becomes_her_own_woman.html
Yeah good one, its not her stubborness, sense of entitlement or inability to accept the voters verdict. Great re-frame, good luck with that
All of the indicators are that the Repubs are on the nose, the current President dipped below 40% approval over a year ago and has just continued down to around 30% since then, the economy is in strife, the 2008 House and Senate elections could be a repeat of 2006 only worse for the GOP; and there’s every chance that the Dems’ campaign funds will be flush and the Repubs’ relatively skint.
So why are the current head-to-heads fiendishly close (by states; small but significant Dem lead in the national vote), and the bookies are calling it just roughly 60:40 to O at the moment?
It’s not because Obama is (on our current evidence) a bad or unelectable candidate. It’s because:
a) in an ‘outsider’ Repub who doesn’t always toe the party line, the GOP has the right candidate for the times; the question-mark is whether he can attract significant numbers of moderates and independents, while still dragging the fundamentalists out in the same force as they came out for Reagan and GWB.
b) the Repubs for a long time have done better in Presidential elections than they have in national representative elections. I’ll leave others to conclude why.
While HRC-supporters can point to states like Florida and Ohio (as red states to potentially pull over the line) to say ’she would have been more electable’, the fact is that on the current evidence HRC v McCain would also have been close. It would not have been a walkover. I wasn’t alive, and whether blacks should have equal rights was a divisive political issue, the last time the Dems had a genuine Presidential landslide victory.
Ferny 209
There’s no way she will run again in four years. If Obama loses the unloseable election there is going to be an awful lot of finger-pointing at Hillary (and Obama and in fact anyone involved in this debacle). Her best shot is to start grooming Chelsea in dodging sniper fire.
SimonH at 193, a good summary of the perils of the popular vote. Even if Hillary the work out some half-baked formula by she can win it, it’s a moot point. The number of delegates that counts (same reason to reject Gore’s popular vote argument), and if the SDs have NOT been swayed by Hillary’s popular vote or electability arguments.
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
Diogenes,
Must completely disagree. If Obama is the candidate and the Dems lose, then all the finger pointing will be at Obama, Dean and the Party Grandees that allowed another unsuitable candidate to lose the unloseable election.
Like Howard after being dumped as leader emerging as the only viable leader after all the second raters had their turn, Hillary would emerge triumphant. The reason being that the Dems would (hopefully, finally) put their personal hatreds aside and focus on winning. But, it is the Democratic party.
David Gould @ 200 and 203: Completely agree with you on both points, or at least what I think are both your points:
1. Foreign policy is an area where voters will favour Repubs. Will hopefully be thus for a long time– I say ‘hopefully’ b/c I believe that the only way the US voters will favour the Dems on this issue is if a GOP President blows up half the world. Obama may be able to minimise the gap, but there is nothing he can do between now and November to change the fact.
2. However, Iraq has significantly neutered the electoral advantage that McC might expect from this issue. And Presidential elections generally aren’t decided on foreign policy issues at the best of times. The number of votes that McC will gain from his foreign policy platform (from people who weren’t rusted-on GOP voters anyway) will be minimal (if the issue is played properly), and highly unlikely to be enough to sway the result his way.
The tactical lesson? Apart from putting his policies up on his website, and defending them against anyone who attacks them, Obama shouldn’t make foreign policy a campaign issue. Keep the fight on your turf. It’s the economy, stupid. Sure, Iraq is on the nose, and you’re against Iraq, but once you emphasise the details of ‘exactly what are you going to do in Iraq if elected?’, you’re playing the enemy’s game.
JWH gave tens of millions of our dollars to the starving advertising industry and TV networks (WorkChoices advertising), in order to do what? Bring the fight more and more to where the enemy was strongest? Man, for a guy revered as the greatest street-fightin’ politician of a generation, that was a novice’s mistake. Let’s hope Obama is well-advised enough not to make the same one.
I gotta agree with GG on finger pointing.
If Obama loses, it will be on Obama and Dean.
I think Clinton will be seen as the wise old-timer saying ‘i told you so!’
A question for those who think she’s a-comin’ around again in 2012 if McC wins:
Would she have spent so much of her own money, and for that matter so much of her political capital, in this campaign if she believed she could say ‘ah well, put that one down to experience; see you in 4 years’? Everything she’s done since late March indicates that she views this as her one shot.
Presidential primaries are not really like JWH in 1995. No-one ever sits back and has party elders gather round humbly and opine, ‘We were wrong to ever abandon you; only you can lead us from the wilderness, oh great one (oh, and there’s no-one else left)’. You have to aggressively push yourself forward as the candidate in a field that is always crowded. And I doubt whether come 2012 HRC will be in a position to credibly do so.
“204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!”
That’s true, KR. Comes with the commentary……..of our little mate.
However he seems to be making an effort. In his first post for days, he managed full stops at the end of each paragraph, save his last. But regarding his comma spacing idiosyncracy, I’m afraid he’s too far gone. Of course as mature adults we are tolerant of this, but as a regular proof reader of the writing of others, one simply can’t immunise oneself from these minor literary speed-bumps.
*sigh*
Grinch – I agree with you. If the Dems lose this the blame will be levelled at Obama and Hillary will be seen as the dudded candidtae who would have won. However, let’s hope (well some of us anyway) that this isn’t the outcome, and Obama gives the GOP the trouncing they have earned.
And just in case the ‘popular vote’ argument fails, Hillary has a back-up formula:
“Speaking at a high school in Maysville, KY, Clinton supported that argument saying, “the states that I have won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be the nominee right now. We have different rules so what we’ve got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes. Now we both have some states that are going to be hard for us to win in the fall like Texas and Oklahoma. But I still have a cushion if you look at all the states that I’ve won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall. My opponent has 217 electoral votes including places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska. And many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states which have a relatively low turnout.” ”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-this-is.html
If only the Dems were bloody Republicans Hillary would be the nominee by now!
218 GG
I agree that Obama and his selection would receive most of the flak but a lot of the party’s heavyweights have gone with him. That means they also own the decision and they’re going to be looking for someone to blame (other than themselves obviously and they can’t blame their candidate as they chose him).
There’s going to be an awful lot of cognitive dissonance if they lose.
1. I’m a full-time expert politician who is always right.
2. My party lost to a flip-flopping moron from a party that, in its own words “would be taken off the shelf if it was dog food”.
“Mistakes were made, but not by me” is the epithet of people in that situation. I reckon they’ll blame Hillary. Hopefully, we will never find out.
Heres the “new wedge” – drag in the wife & run it up the flag pole –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmWEaqxkGtU&eurl=http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23728386-601,00.html
Opec’s president on Monday warned oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help.
The comments made by Chakib Khelil, Algeria’s energy minister, came as oil prices hit a historic peak close to $120 a barrel, putting further pressure on global economies.
Opec says oil could hit $200
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4200dc9e-1521-11dd-996c-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Don’t forget – Hillary will be 64 in ‘12 and 68 in ‘16 – and old women are looked on as worse than old men
Um, without wanting to sound a little weird….
Hillary doesn’t look to bad for someone who is apparently 60. If Obama loses, i can’t see age being a massive issue for her.
Especially given she would presumably be up against a man who (if alive) will be 76 at the time.
Superdelegate Roundup
Obama picks up 2 new super delegates: DNC Blake Johnson (AK); and DNC Cindy Spanyers (AK), bringing his overall advantage in delegates up to 203 while reducing the remaining superdelegate pool to 217.
Pledged Delegate Numbers
Obama: 1921
Clinton: 1718
Delegates Needed To Win
Obama: 104 (25.6% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.6% of the pool)
but Catrina, Hillary’s won the populat vote, she’s more electable, she’s won more electoral college vote states, but, but, but
sorry the cold hard figures get you every time. thanks for supplying them with such accuracy and regularity
HarryH #172
Dio
“I don’t think you realise how good a 10 point loss result was for Obama in Penn”
10% is a 10% thrashing in a key state. Remarkable analysis for a foot soldier
Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries, such as
“the endorsement of Robert Byrd, the 90-year-old veteran senator form West Virginia, days after Hillary took the state. To say Byrd is a conservative Democrat is something of an understatement: the guy was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Mind you he’s 90 and that was in 1942 – he was a Grand Cyclops apparently – and he has subsequently apologised profusely. Now he’s just your average bloke who stays at home on a weekend to do some chores and singe the lawn.” (Guy Rundle, Crikey)
DG – Iran
The Iranian weapons situations is analagous with what occurred with WMD & Iraq – its all about oil. I suggest you read Jeremy Scahill (2007) ‘Blackwater, The Rise of the World’s Most Powerful Mercenary Army’ – particularly chapter 11 which lays out the detail of the US project called Caspian Guard that involved regime change in Georgia (getting rid of Shevardnadze because he was to close to Russia); use of Blackwater personnel to build bases within Azerbaijan & Kazakhstan, and train their significantly increased arm forces (built up with US aid $). As a result the US now has bases in these countries on the borders of Iran and Russia!
All of the usual suspects, Unocal, ConcocoPhillips, Haliburton, BP are involved in the building of an oil pipeline that will skirt Russia and Iran.
“As Janes Defence Weekly reported, the U.S. presence near the Caspian allowed Washington to gain foothold in a region that is rich in oil and natural gas, and which also borders Iran. ‘Its good old US interests, it’s rather selfish’ said US Army Colonel Mike Anderson, Chief of Europe Plans & Policies Division. ‘Certainly we’ve chosen to help these two littoral states, but always underlying that is our own self interest.”
The US Govt are happy to ignore the fact that President Aliyev of Azerbaijan – won a highly suspect election to succeed his father, a former Soviet strongman. Azerbaijan human rights record is apalling, according to Human Rights Watch “Torture, police abuse and excessive use of force by security forces are widespread.” Now thanks to the Bush Administration this regime spends a billion dollars annually on its military.
All the while they rachet up the accusations against Iraq.
Diogene @ 226,
Or,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buSwRxvYPZI
Well observed, Grace. And I agree BHO is not going to lose in November unless he drops his daks during debates and brown-eyes the camera.
Don’t you mean “Iran” in your last sentence?
————–
Ferny, from your RCP link at 211:
“But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
She’s living the cliche of the American Dream, all she wants now is a decent shot at “redemption”.
Just like Ayn Rand, doesn’t matter who gets sloughed off along the way, just as long as a gal can keep on keeping on. And of course an engine’s gotta do what an engine’s gotta do.
{The Little Engine that Could, also known as The Pony Engine, is a moralistic children’s story that appeared in the United States of America. The book is used to teach children the value of optimism. Some critics would contend that the book is a metaphor for the American dream.}
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Little_Engine_That_Could
Obi ain’t no engine, he know how to git down, people.
Da man KNOW how to git down!
EC 236
Thanks I did mean Iran in my last sentence.
Don’t know if this has already been mentioned here – but sometime yesterday Barak Obama was adopted into the Crow Nation with the name “Black Eagle’.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/obama-adopted-by-native-americans/
Grace #234
“Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries”
Hillary has won the majority of white , hispanic & Asian votes representing 88% of Americans. obama has won 90%+ of his own ethnic vote plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
j/v Your polls on Iraq are irrelevant. Those Poll questions were the order of major issues , not the vote defining ones. In 2004 iraq was overwhelmingly unpopular in ‘oz’ but Howard. McCain is trusted more than either Dem on National security and any votes in foreign affairs McCain will win the most. I’m astonished anyone would suggest Iraq will be a problem for McCain unless it completely deteriorates. But Obama has a problem with how long withdrawal & what does he propose idealy to leave behind , given his absurd amateurish statement that if Al queda get back into Iraq , he’ll go in & get them out !
IRAN , numerous blogs on Iran being some sort of Bush red herring. Bush is correct to be concerned but is using the wrong policys to address it. Iran ARE enriching uranium that is a fact according to the UN AEC. why blogers here apply their dovish anti US attitudes to a scientific fact is remarkable. Whether Iran uses that quality uranium for nukes no one knows , but relying on the Mullahs good graces given their disrespect for human life with suicide bombers training only the FL dovish anti US intellegentsia are foolish enough not to advocate policys designed to prevent a nuke Iran. Ditto North Korea who have no oil. m/e oil continuity (but not Iran;s oil) is a main secondary priority but not the main game. As for Obama , what a rope a dope Philly oratory speech & the Mullahs will be sold.
Hillary has won plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
Thanks Catrina- amazing how a few lefties in this antipodean website are spreading our wings so far – even to Crow country.
WTF is going on here. Like my amigo Ron, you can’t be away for a few days. then you have bloody William Bowe raised the white flag “You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.” Why William?
1. So the bullies of PB can go on bullying.
2. So the sound of one hand clapping of the Obamabots here becomes the sound of boring, the bores and the boors.
3. So the conga line of sucking is getting longer, and longer and hardcore, exhibit: “Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers” “Kirribilli Removals at 87 Yes sir, will do!”
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
Michellegate in full blown. Dear Michelle, if you cannot stand the heat, dont effing go into the
kitchen in the first place. If you want to wear the pants and get involved in the campaign, dont go
whinging when attacked. Else, get out of the kitchen and let the real Lady handle the heat of the kitchen. As the Herr Doktor was saying, you should just shut-up.
The Irangate in full blown. Would Obama please repeat and re-state his new politics doctrine that “As POTUS, he will sit down and talk to the President of Iran, Syria, Cuba and venezuela, unconditionally”. Please show again some Profile of courage.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/6961
This is an own goal and self-inflicted. he has no-one to blame but himself. It simply shows his inexperience and lack of political judgement.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obamas_unique_appeasement_styl.html
yes, I agree with GG, and those who have agreed with GG, that if Obama loses in Nov, he will go down in history as the candidate who lost the Dems’ mandate from heaven to rule. In our despair, we will say in unison: “We told you so”.
Cheers, Grace, you might find the below link useful.
“His ( McCain’s) rhetoric about Iran—which inevitably will be a factor in any solution —has been belligerent. He calls it a “rogue state” and has spoken often of “rogue-state rollback,” deliberately invoking a word favored by the hardest-line cold warriors; he recently said he never meant by the phrase “that we should go around and declare war.” On the Middle East, he said in late April that “people should understand that I will be Hamas’s worst nightmare.”
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21470
While maudlin hagiographers claim old soldiers never die, old warmongers are not content unless they continue to churn young men and women down Moloch’s gullet.
After all, what’s an MIC unless it can turn a buck!
. http://www.shout.net/~bigred/Moloch.jpg
Finns
You and i are both avid Fox News watchers. However only one of us actually believes the crud that they dribble.
I regularly have PB open and Fox on the tv. It is remarkable how often your posts pop up with Fox talking points just after they spew them up.
Long may you run, Bazza;
Long may you soar, Black Eagle.
HarryH, got news for you. I raised Michellegate last week and Irangate about 4 days ago. So You just keep on watching Faknews, it will do you good. It will at least keep your brain in balance.
GG
The dears can not detail what Obama’s “change , yes we can means”
Looks like none of those PAC’s and lobbyists , all out of work , gone are the ‘prork barrelling’ , no more special interest group pressure on legislation , andd of course new style politic means no Pollies doing arm twisting & secret Legislative deals , no more sex scandals , no more Pollie corruption headlines , a new beltway syndrome & gone will be all old Washington style negotiations done for generations …….
all achieved by “change, yes we can”..but how and by who and specifically what ?
fantasy world indeed , especially with Obama’s threat in front of a boardroom of credible executives of a major US corporation to nuke not only Iran…but also Pakistan , better then bomb bomb and then there’s the 25 million on the public register from PAC’s & lobbyists , the people Obama says he takes no money from.
FINNS
And we got HARRYH believing Fox News now
and ANDREW,k/r’s apprentice big noter with small echo , really reads all posts for wisdom to supplement a zero base whilst denying his reads
um ok Finns lol
Fox have been prattling about Michelle and Iran being the next “Obamagates” for about a week now…..about the time pastorgate ran out of gas.
Finns, your patterns have been uncanny.
It’s ok to admit you like the Fox guys. Don’t be embarrassed.
HarryH, for your thickness.
#747 – The Finnigans Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#736 Diog – [I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though.] – dont speak too soon my friend. just wait when they turn on Michelle Obama. Boy, is she giving them the ammunitions. If Obama lost in Nov it will be because of the Pastor and his wife. How ironic, Hillary lost probably because of her husband, and Obama probably his wife.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=853&cp=8#comment-150871
Ron #239
It’s precisely because North Korea has no oil that the Bush Administration has been willing to negotiate with them.
It is a pity that they have not adopted the same approach with Iran. The rhetoric of the US, with the threats of bombing and building army bases on their borders is supporting the rhetoric of the Iranian President.
Surely, it is a better strategy to engage with Iran and avert armageddon.
As to the numbers re Obama – he has won primaries in States that are have populations comprising 88% and 67% “white” Americans, Eisenhower and Susan Nixon have endorsed him, as have Indigenous Americans and the quote I gave today about the Senator from West Virginia who is an ex KKK member. (the links are in previous blogs on this site)
250
That should read Eisenhower family
The Toy Boys at 249
Not getting too hot for you is it?
It’s possible the US voters won’t, after eight long years of Bush, be able to come to grips with someone who can string more than three coherent words together. Bit of a worry!
“Tracking Poll (gallup): Obama opens up biggest lead ever over Clinton”
Oh-oh, trios amigos, biggest lead evah!! Comin’ right atcha, tha C-word! Sho’ nuff. Can ya dig it?
Ah don’ believe ya hoid me there, amigos trios, ah sed,
CAN_ YOU_ DIG_ IT?
“Amid reports that the Democratic Party’s leaders and largest fundraisers are beginning to take steps to try to bring their party together after a long, hard-fought primary campaign, the latest Gallup daily tracking poll suggests Democratic voters are beginning to COALESCE around Sen. Barack Obama.”
Gotta love that C-word, yessuh!
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/19/tracking-poll-obama-opens-up-biggest-lead-ever-over-clinton/
222
Enemy Combatant
Ecky, you should take the log from your own eye! LOL
As Mrs Kirribilli is wont to say: the ellipsis is three full stops!
Beware, we are watching you!
So the candidate with …
1. the most pledged delegates
2. the most super delegates
3. the winner of the most primaries
4. the winner of the most caucuses
5. the best fund raising record in primary history
6. the most volunteers on the ground in primary history
7. the most states
8. the Rep. endorsements
9. the most endorsements from Senators
10. the most endorsements from state Governors
11. the most endorsements for DNC members
But on top of all of that, EC chimes in with the coupe de grace…
Who would have predicted that?
254 EC – Ah yes, there it is popping up again, the C-word. Has there ever been a more beautiful word in the English language than ‘coalescence’? It has science; it has politics; it has poetic assonance potential (e.g. with ‘around’, or ‘biggest lead ever’) … Fantastic word.
The c-word, I’ve been waiting for Kirri to introduce that into the conversation given his power packed anger levels of recent days.
“Just a few years after the Republican Party launched a highly publicized diversity effort, the GOP is heading into the 2008 election without a single minority candidate with a plausible chance of winning a campaign for the House, the Senate or governor. “
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10464.html
Hey, check out the photo, Bludgers.
Shortage of coffee coloured folk but plenty of white people all huddled together.
Musta come in a bunch!
Sho’nuff.
———————–
Yes, jv, it’s a word The Surgeon of Crowthorne would have gone ape over.
————
Fair dinkum, Eddy, I love a bit of Rabelaisian ribaldry myself, but in your never ending quest as a vulgarian ego tripper, you are a dead-set dope.
259 – The Republicans could go Bobby Jindal for VP. Get the conservatives on the side and as well as countering the minority issue.
258
Edward StJohn
“unconscionable” was William’s word for your disgraceful behaviour Eddy, would you like me to remind everyone what it was for?
You just can’t help yourself, can you?
Worth thinking about, if you’re a conservative:
Conservatives are in the same boat today, except worse. Modern movement conservatism was also fundamentally based on three things: low taxes, anti-communism, and social traditionalism. (”Small government” was never more than a fig leaf.) Today communism is gone (and Islamofascism has failed to rally the troops in the same way), taxes literally can’t be lowered any more, and sex-and-gender fundamentalism has become an albatross that’s rapidly producing a generation of young voters more repelled by conservatism than any generation since World War II. Even in the late 70s, there were plenty of traditionally liberal goals still to be fought for. Not enough to build a winning coalition around, but still something. Modern conservatives don’t even have that. The culture war is pretty much all they have left, and its clock has run out.
They won’t be willing to say this during a presidential campaign, but there are at least half a dozen smart Republican senators who understand this and don’t really want to go down with the ship. So even if Democrats don’t win a filibuster-proof majority in November — as they almost certainly won’t — it’s likely that there will still be enough survival-inspired GOP senators around to give Barack Obama the votes he needs to make a difference. If that’s the case, and if Obama has the courage of his convictions, his first two years could be historic.
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_05/013750.php
Ron
Just for the record; ‘prork barrelling’; let’s see, that be a ‘comaparatively gentile’ slush fund; or a ‘thinkskin’ circumcised currency? Just asking.
Grace those O & G pipelines; lovely mudmap of the PNAC progress…
I love it when the NYTimes talks dirty:
Senator Barack Obama is poised to reach a milestone in the presidential race on Tuesday by capturing a majority of pledged delegates, but he said he would not declare victory against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton or suggest the Democratic primary should end until the final three contests are finished on June 3.
…as the poor petal is sleep walking to Pennsylvania Avenue and should be woken very carefully.
The earthquake at Sichuan happened at 2:28pm on 12 May 2008. Precisely 88 days before the opening of Beijing Olympic at 8/8/2008 at 8:08:08pm. Magnitude of 8 on the Richter Scale. And 8 is supposed to be a lucky number in Chinese. Not a good omen for the Beijing Olympic. Sichuan means the province of 4 plains and 4 means death in Chinese.
According to China Daily:
Quake death toll rises by one to 34,074, (Xinhua)
Updated: 2008-05-20 16:44
Beijing — The death toll in China’s major earthquake increased by one to 34,074 as 12:00 pm Tuesday, according to the earthquake relief headquarters of the State Council.
And 245,963 people were injured and 32,361 missing in the 8.0-magnitude quake that jolted southwestern Sichuan Province last Monday. By Monday midnight, 360,159 people trapped during the quake had been rescued and transported to safe areas, among them 6,375 were excavated from rubble left behind by the quake.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2008-05/20/content_6698567.htm
BSF at 260, Bobby Jindal for GOP VP nominee at 14/1 is “in the market” and can’t be readily dismissed at this juncture. He doesn’t appear to have any “baggage” and could get the nod from GOPper HQ if they wanted to counter BHO’s “Change” theme. Be interesting to see how the move would play with core/base GOP voters.
P.S. Friends call me Enemy, BSJ, or EC will do just fine. The last time someone addressed me as a number, I was in Gitmo.
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Al8E8o4.KAhkzthhASgCxmEl6ysC
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffstahler;_ylt=AnZTSJlCKb_NQNljz0QQ4K5T_b4F
Mon May 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Al4.PUtbV.U4KRhNiDipE.lW_b4F
ESJ,
You float in and out so you are hard to catch. Not telling you how to suck in an ego in or anything, but I have noticed KR’s cyber bully tendancies towards your good self.
William’s 27 might be a hearty rejoinder to KR.
Further, as far as I know, KR is the only contributor who had to pass a test to blog on PB. A bit like getting a certificate to prove your sane enough to be in an asylum really.
Is ESJ finally going to get banned?
FINNS
#242
“Justifying Obama’s fast and loose treatment of the truth about his past, his editor Deborah Baker explained that Obama’s attitude was more important than the facts ”
Now we know why the Obamabots are dispensible with facts , they follow Obama
Its like the Obama ‘yes we can’message thou shalt not explain cause they don’t know what it means but it must be a butterfly thing to say , some policy.
Yes FINNS , apparently the bullys tried our moderators patience , getting alittle pesky when put under pressure about electoral stats
enemey combatant @ 266
Maybe but i think it may complicate the GOP line of attack. I suppose that could be a good as well as a bad thing. He hasn’t been Governor all that long. And yes i do know he was a congressman before that. AS the Republicans have said about Obama he hasn’t been fully vetted. Also representing practically 100 percent of the GOP minority ethnics it would obliterate any tokenism attacks. So it surely would have a downside by making them look like big ol hypocrites.
Convention wisdom would say either South Carolina Senator or their governor.
I say the logical decision in my opinion would be Marry Jodi Rell. Popular governor of a northern state who was a lieutenant governor for a fair while. It would also attract all those silly old bats like Geraldine Feraro who will cut off their nose to spite their face. Sure there is the whole signed laws helping gay people but still.
But don’t tell McCain i dont want him to know
Ron @ 247,
Good to see you back firing on all cylinders as usual.
To me, this change, yes we can is just a new gang taking over an old patch. But, who am I to argue with the superior life experiences of those who have never done nor achieved anything.
Obama’s performance re Iran has been shameful and he basically needs to put a sock in it while some adults develop a better communications strategy.
Are he and his darling supporters on PB likely to take any notice? Not on form to date. Good for them.
Hope you are well.
Cheers.
I am absolutely fuc*ing speechless. I can’t really add any more. God, I hope it’s wrong.
US President George W. Bush intends to attack Iran in the upcoming months, before the end of his term, Army Radio quoted officials in Jerusalem as saying Tuesday.
The official claimed that a senior member of the president’s entourage said during a closed meeting that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney were of the opinion that military action was called for.
‘Bush intends to attack Iran before the end of his term’
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1210668683139&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
M. Jodi Rell (who happens to be the Republican Governor of Conneticut) will not be the VP nominee for the GOP.
Why? Because she’s too moderate/liberal for the base. Already McCain is having problems with his base – imagine the problems he would have if he nominated a female, pro-civil union, pro-campaign finance reform, pro-tax hike Governor of a New England (and very blue) state.
No – he’s got to go for a either a conservative (to shore up the base), like Gov. Sanford of South Carolina or a more “moderate” moderate, like Gov. Pawlenty of Minnesota.
Progresseive,
Seems our cuckoo has clocked in.
Please provide a case why ESJ or anyone should be banned.
j/v
#257
“a more beautiful word in the English language than ‘coalescence’? It has science; it has politics; it has poetic assonance potential”
We have now seen on the blogosphere the wonder a butterfly organic simulation
whilst site visitors shake their heads at Obamabotic foolishness. What you’ve failed too j/v not knowing what the yes we can message is
Parrot no1 Boyslesswit:
not knowing electability is the first rule of politics , another amateur
Codgy class first inductee , codger himself:
your tuesday night gibberish should have an Obama policy to tell us about ?
k/r
#262
still cutting & pasting full articles from sites & newspapers Salon , NYT etc , but without ” ” I see , have you actually anything original to say from your mind or do you think your colleagues are silly enough to really believe you write these cut & pastes
Diogenes@273
Can’t anyone stop this lunatic??
I mean Bush, just in case there’s any confusion.
Swing Lowe
She isn’t that moderate lol. But yes you probably are putting it in context. It is gonna be almost impossible for anyone to rewin the bush coalition. Though you can try. I frankly hope you are right. And for once the likes of sean hannity and rush limbaugh are helping me sleep cause i want base choice for vp. Going on the offensive would put the democrats on the back foot insted of plugging the holes that will mean Obama will be less reactive.
Catrina at 256, a beautiful set of numbers. the only thing on this page worth reading
sorry EC at 254, you too!!
With your indulgence Mr Bowe, I bumped into this whilst researching the big bad babel pond etc for some Ron clarity;
‘1 morning while making breakfast, a man walked up 2 his wife &
pinched her on the butt and said, “f u firmed this up, we could get
rid of ur control top pantyhose. while this was on the edge of
intolerable, she kept silent.
the next morning, the man woke his wife w a pinch on each of her breasts & said, “u know, f u firmed these up, we could get rid of ur bra.” this was beyond a silent response, so she rolled
over & grabbed him by his penis. w a death grip n place, she
said, “u know, f u firmed this up, we could get rid of the gardener,
the postman, the pool man, & ur brother.”
http://www.destee.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-10308.html
Swing Lowe
#274
Did you read a rumour on M. Jodi Rell ?
There is no way I would have thought McCain would consider pickig a VP from one of the ‘bluest’ POTUS States in the Union. Not quite with what you’re suggesting Scotty , there’s no pick up with the base in the NE , betterfurther South or mid west he should look
FERNY Grover
Noticed you went to the trouble of publishing polls earlieron the next two Primarys & have been waiting to see if any Obama supporter commentedon your works , alas a pity , my view on seeing them was they indicate 2 contrasting scenes between an East Coast & West Coast Primary , a win each & by a big margin. Oregon has firmed up as blue or both candidates but its poll variations from 5% to 20% for Obama gives no confidence in some pollsters.
Estimate more like 12 to 14 points
Diogenes
#273
forget the story , beatup for local Israeli consumption from a single Israeli source
Jen @ 277,
I was half way through the word umbrage.
Cheers
Diogenes @ 273
It is hard to believe even George Bush is that stupid and it is time people start to question the likes of McCain on this.
It is called the strait of hormuz people. If Iran’s defence plans were successful it could plunge the world into a global depression.
http://archive.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/2/28/181730.shtml?s=lh
codger,
me thinks you were babelling Playboy Magazine.
Good get.
Cheers.
Ron @ 283
I’m happy for him not to. Red and blue are often described in a very 1 dimensional way. Theoretically West Virginia is one of the bluest state around. But Obama will not win it. Her 2 preceding governors were members of the republican party. Dukakis won west Virginia but not Connecticut. The likes of Lieberman is less than a moderate senator.
Codger, what possesses a person to go to a psephology website and leave a comment like #282?
GG
he is not echoing k/r like k/r’s apprentice Andrew in #280 & #281 congratulating each other , pity they cann’t read what the poll is actually saying
Scotty #285
whats the point quoting a March 2006 article on an alleged Iran plan to block the Strait if the US launced a pre emptive strike. Is this based on a single unnamed Israeli source of an alleged private comment by Bush published in an Israeli newspaper and where’s the relevance of McCain. Why not question Obama who has made the threat of a preemptive nuke strike , something Hillary NEVER did but got sanctimoniously criticised for here , whats Obama ’s policy ?
Growler- I know my opposition to Bush’s love of war is characterised as riding mymoral high horse, appeasement, and now taking umbrage.
But I actually really do think it’s wrong.
Or perhaps that’s just grandstanding on my part, as part of my naive and pathetic support for a celebrity candidate (who’s postion I happen to agree with).
Follow the link William. & ‘Obamabots are dispensible with facts’ @ 270. Just keeping up to speed and I thought it funny. Depends on your imagination I guess.
Scoty , hadn’t finished post , think its an Israeli plant for the ‘right’ Israeli supporters of the PM as his cedibility was down & lfor ocal Israeli read
Bludger the Punter said: Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be euthanised*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
Shades of 1976 and the “Great Match Race” at Belmont when the Kentucky Derby winner , “Foolish Pleasure” (male, black) was pitted against the Belmont Stakes winner “Ruffian” (filly, chestnut) and won when Ruffian broke down in the back straight. They shot her too. I was there. (It’s ‘euthanased’ actually).
Whether it’s true or not, if it’s picked up by the MSM it will become an issue in the election. And we can be thankful that Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Powell aren’t there to BS America into doing it.
“However, the official continued, “the hesitancy of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice” was preventing the administration from deciding to launch such an attack on the Islamic Republic, for the time being.”
Scotty , hadn’t finished post , think its an Israeli plant for the ‘right’ Israeli supporters of the PM as his credibility is down & for local Israeli read
No Codger, it depends on your intelligence.
I read that bit Diogenes- but if Bush wanted to do it as Commander In Chief- could anyone actually stop him?
Jen,
I pretended you were talking about me.
I have never or would never doubt your sincerity. I may disagree and be frustrated with your views, but you call it as you see. You can’t ask any more than that.
Cheers.
294
Diogenes
“for the time being” LOL
The Iraqis have slammed the US’s harping about Iran and even though the Sunni kingdoms aren’t mad keen on it, they’re backing away from yet another coalition of the imbecilic.
David Brooks is right: they’re f&cked.
Especially if this utterly discredited war talk and fear mongering is all they have left.
Obama is right on this and the majority are sick and tired of this. You can’t keep crying wolf.
Game’s up.
Thank you Grinch.
Jen 297
That’s the $3 trillion question. Congress can’t but they have to vote funds for the war so they sort of can. And the American people would have to support it. They’ll need a lot of propaganda to get it through but it’s been done done before. And McCain would win the next election if a war had just started in Iran.
Bush wouldnt have the time to even go through the whole inspections/UN charade again and he would not get Congress approval, surely
what time do we expect results from these primaries??
276
Ron
nah, Ron, I put links on it, so anyone with half a brain knows where it came from.
This clearly exludes you, so I guess that’s why you couldn’t figure it out, or are you going to just come on and abuse me with mindlessly idiotic comments too?
At least I don’t write pages of unreadable dribble and demand that others respond to it like it actually means anything.
Try it again son, and we’ll play another round of “Pin the Meaning on the Ron”, it’s lots of fun, and I don’t mind playing it.
Want to play, eh, Ron?
301
Diogenes
They’re all ‘warred out’ Dio. It’s all huff and puff until the election and everybody knows it.
Predictable though.
The winner in November will be the candidate who can position himself (assuming Obama wins) in the centre. Right now, the centre is unoccupied. Obama came from the left, urged on by the looney lefts, the Liberals, the latte set, the chaterring class and the Kumbaya flocks.
While McCain was in the centre-right but has been dragged yelling and screaming to the Right by the Bible bashers, Neocons and the equally loooooney rights.
Our Dear Leader was successful because he kept Howard to the Right, and Howard kept himself there with a little help from his NSW looney right friends.
The race is on. The question is how nimble will Obama be to get to the centre, or he is already so laden, shackled and chained by his looney left patrons that he cannot move anymore. Thus leaving McCain to simply stroll to the centre.
As much as i despise Dick Morris, but he is astute. he said this is a bizarre election where an unelectable candidate will be endorsed by an unbeatable Party and an electable candidate has been endorsed by imminently beatable Party.
The Israelis had presented Bush with what they claim is “evidence”, in the form of data, of an existential threat that Iran poses to the Jewish state. They hope that this will strongly influence the U.S. administration on Bush’s return after he promised to discuss the issue with security officials.
This had followed talks Olmert had had with Bush last year during a visit to the United States where the Israeli premier had expressed concern and disappointment over a National Intelligence Estimate’s report by U.S. intelligence which had stated that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program.
Award winning investigative journalist Seymour Hersch first disclosed details of U.S. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley misleading reporters by stating that Bush had first been briefed on the intelligence report on Nov. 28 last year.
In fact, Bush had known about the report’s assessment at least two days earlier when he had discussed it in private with Olmert, according to Hersch.
This has led some commentators to comment that Israel and the United States are in cahoots with regard to setting the stage for a possible military strike on Iran by building an atmosphere which would justify such a strike.
Israel banging (U.S.) war drums
http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/05/20/israel_banging_us_war_drums/4975/
Finns,
Perfectly summarised.
Satire at its very, very best.
William @ 288 & 296: Yes, but what possesses a person to go to a psephology website and leave a comment like most of the last 500 or so on the Democratic primary process? An unhappy blend of primary-school-playground personal abuse and one-eyed barracking (and now, lame jokes). Generalised political debate with the remotest connection to the electoral process has been the good end of things.
A perennial problem with the internet is that freedom of speech doesn’t imply the absolute right to wee your name all over your neighbour’s front fence. I appreciate that there are resource and can’t-be-bothered limitations, but I reckon some more moderation is called for.
Young Democrats turned down $1m bribe from Clinton donor for 2 SDs to support her
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/19/superdelegates-turned-dow_n_102450.html
Gee if she cant buy 2 for 1 mil, she cant afford the the 300 she needs!
Angry Kirri at 261,
Here I am just little old me, give it your best shot old son!
#308, GG – we can also do one hand clapping if we want to. but we do it as with the finesse of Zen not as the way the barbarians did it.
It’s not going to happen unfortunately, SimonH. You are basically suggesting that I take on a monumental daily workload for which I will receive nothing in return except abuse. There are only two planet earth options for the US threads: let them run wild, or can them altogether.
FINNS
#306
“Obama came from the left, urged on by the looney lefts, the Liberals, the latte set, the chaterring class and the Kumbaya flocks”.
Ron ,good post, the above is a perfect description of most of his supporters here
How is Obama going to move to the centre , left elitist p…of f OH , foolish m/e statements p…off FL , has no economic expertise , weak on national security , his support is the hip hop college set so he can not move too centre or risk losing these dreamers , and a race message hat may scare middle America ?
SimonH
#309
“more moderation is called for”
If there was you wouldn’t be here at all , the first criteria is working knowledge of the US electoral system which you lack but you have abundance of gall making snotty elitist remarks but cann’t handle a retort (made only in 4th gear)
k/r
#304
By all means keep cutting & pasting articles all day from NYT , Salon etc on finance etc but without ” ” as if you did , but everyone knows including your colleagues you do not write any of it , so why not post just the link , then all your posts would be one liners
Finns,
I actually prefer bungee origami. You will never be scared of paper cuts again.
Ron @ 289
It doesn’t matter about who said what. Most experts agree that Iran would try and cut of the strait of Hormuz. It is only 21 miles long and 30 percent of the world’s oil passes by there. The point im sure that the article adds is that iran could probably attack with its long range missiles oil instillations in Saudi Arabia Yemen ect that do not increasing the percentage of the world oil even further. The point of the article was to show how well iran has planned for this.
You do not need to be a rocket scientist or hopefully even George bush to realise the price of oil would go so High Malcomb Turnbull could not even afford it. Iran would use its speedboats tactics like used on the uss cole to damage not just American warships but any significant trading ships. Even after Iran’s conventional fleet would be destroyed these attacks could continue for a significant time. in the fragile condition world markets in the further crushing of confidence would not be very welcome. Remembering of course that Abu Dhabi was one of those white knights for example during the worst credit crisis softening the blow.
How can the only 2 daily tracking polls be so different on the same day at this stage of the race?
Dem Nom race:
Gallup +16 Obama 55-39 94% designated
Rassmussen +2 Obama 46-44 90% designated
Diogs
‘And McCain would win the next election if a war had just started in Iran.’
They’ve done it for less.
William: fair enough. If the public urinators can’t control themselves, I guess we all know where this is heading, then. (Even if it doesn’t get out-and-out canned, the same 5 or 6 adolescents who should just get themselves a locked room to slug it out, will make it unbearable for regular people who come here expecting to read some reasoned discussion vaguely connected with the site’s raison d’etre, and they will just drift away, making the problem progressively worse.)
A great shame because when it’s halfway decent there’s nothing to compare to this site for an Australian perspective on the US elections.
SimonH,
The Tear up reminds me of arseanque. Do you correspond?
SimonH
fair comment.
As an occasional piddler myself I will try and rise above the fray.
I love the political and often entertaining take on this election, but I am also tired of the constantly repetitive personal abuse, which at times I have got caught up in.
Will try and do better.
jen, your piddling is ok with me. it’s the horsy love, horsy
damn those values of mine, Finns.
Just can’t seem to shake them.
And Diogene’s latest offering is chilling.
A warning in advance: come what may, the US election threads will get canned if a WA election is called, which is likely to happen around the time things get interesting/out of hand.
William- no chance of running both until November?
Scotty
#317
you are right the article makes this clear. I was merely assuming US intell would have assumed already the Straight were on Iran’s radar to attack anyway & was thinking the article’s publication may have been designed to create the starting circumstances for the US further pressuring Iran , or worse rather than the US finding out much more than they’d predicted.
As you say the damage Iran can inflict is terrifying with their existing weaponary , which was the substance of ny earlier post re the further instability & risk posed should Iran proceed with its existing enrichment into nuke grade development for which US Intell can not verify either way (except that the UN AEC have voiced significant concern). And the Israeli Intell is hard to guage as to its purpose sometimes. That being the case I haven’t heard Obama articulate a coherrent policy in this Iran nuke area , except an earlier threat to nuke them if he believed they (not having made a preemptive strike) may threaten others with nukes
any thoughts ?
Appeasement i guess. The same way JFk appeased Cuba i guess during the Cuban missile crisis. Foolish liberal could have let Castro get Nuclear weapons. Bombing them to prevent Cuba gaining them would have been a less extremist policy.
Jen, by all accounts the WA election is likely to be in October, so I’ll possibly run them again when it’s over. I will also do live US coverage on the day itself, regardless of what else happens.
jen, you dont shake the horsey, you jump off them, like this, see kid stuff
http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2007/07_03/giantHorseG2707_468×314.jpg
Thanks William- It would be a shame to have got so far and not see the outcome among friends – and others.
Jen,
Yeah, like an Agatie Christie murder mystery with the last page torn out.
Talking about Appeasement. Who is courting who now. Obama needs Hillary more than Hillary needs Obama. He has more to lose, and if he lost it, he will be condemned forever.
Hillary Clinton’s Defeat: A Historic Triumph by Arianna Huffington.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/hillary-clintons-defeat-a_b_102418.html
Scotty
#329
the choices are never easy are they in this area. JFK has the advantage that Cuba was the client & he was dealing with Russia & could offer the obsolete Turkey disarmanent6 months later. The Obama way would be appeasement (& he seems to lack ticker as well) & guarantee a nuke Iran , IF Iran so chose to enrich & develop in that direction. Would have thought a strong carrot & engaement & stick approach is worth a try which Bush hasn’t tried.
Huffington has to say that…it’s all about the COALESCING.
Hillary will be remembered for a lot of things. One of them will be a fighter.
More memories will be negative than positive though.
FINNS
#334
Huffington Post have been strident pro obama all the way with its Owner having long standing bitter disputes with Hillary , so much for any semblance of her journo integrity. Now with obama’s numbers looking better , time for a little ‘revisionist’ history , suppose it’ll fool some of her readers.
Are we ever going to find out what this “change to , yes we can” is , seeing ots Obama’s central policy ? 9or can we assume its air)
Ron at 337
When you try to do a ‘(’ character you need to press the shift-key down first.
Stop with the jokes Catrina just give us da #’s. Sweetie!
codger at 339
Yes sir! Will do!
So tell us, Delphic Oracle of the SuperD’s, how’s it lookin’ for the kid to take the magic number,er, the one before Hillary decided she was losing and wanted it changed, that is?
GG
#321
just saw the quip , touche , the sanctimonious snob with a ‘H’ thought he could dictate rules here despite his own sledging & not expect return fire , like all intellegentsia gentry elitists cut mustard here with the 3 Amigos.
Codgy , your #339 , you realise the FINNS picked Obama up on that ’sweetie” slap down to a worker , and now you’re referring to my P number 2 in the same disparaging way. Then in your #340 you are answering your own #339 post. k/r was formerly the only one who ever regularly did that
Did you get that joke Ron?
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robertariail;_ylt=AqWUwXtVK86LcokyKOUPdIjd.sgF
Sea Wolf attacked by almost extinct beast defending its domain as once again, homo “sapiens” demonstrates superiority over all creatures great and small.
http://aphrabehn.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/bear_sub2.jpg
Mon May 19:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=A0WTUcWozDJIdegArA8DwLAF
Ecky, this is for you. It’s humourously written, but the message is anything but.
Note that it’s in a very mainstream (ie usually bullish) market site:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/governments-numbers-racket-about-blow/story.aspx?guid=%7BF91A0843%2D69B4%2D4C0C%2D92CE%2DB835D9907945%7D&dist=MostReadHome
KR at 341
Well – today (over there) is going to be an interesting day. Sometime in the next few hours the Black Eagle will pick up the endorsement of Iowa Chair Scott Brennan. In the meantime Miss Duracell will be watching the popular vote numbers just to see if she can cling to her preferred position of the popular vote using creationist mathematics arguments. But her biggest problem here is if she drop behind on even this abstract measure and if that happens, one could argue that its a bitter rebuttal coming back to bite.
As things stand (with Edwards delegates in the super pool and the Pelosi factor ever present) the kid leads bunny by 203 delegates.
Obama: 1921 (104 to win)
Clinton: 1718 (307 to win)
But the pain kicks in as the Kentucky and Oregon results come in as these represent a drain on the remaining pool.
Stay tuned and I’ll bring in the numbers as it filters up.
346
Catrina
A divine Oracle, thanks.
Funny, but if a kid starts saying I should have won that game, except I made the wrong move back there, can I change it now, us adults usually say things like: no, you made it, you own it, and you can’t just change things after the event to suit yourself. There are rules in life.
You know, grown up stuff.
How come someone who says she wants to be POTUS doesn’t understand such basic things? LOL
It really isn’t a good look, is it?
FINNS & GG
Look like I have to leave some psephological homework for the fringe set that’s left here .So we’ve got HarryH , my pet P number 2/ , codgy & my mate still looking for relevance.
There are four (4) fundamental themes Obama has put which have attracted Obama supporters firm commitment.Your challenge is to demonstrate in detail to your fellow Obama colleagues you understand them (rather than your support being shallow)
The hint of what they are ; the first is soapy , the second is an undefined losing footy coachs ½ time plea , the third is Obama self damaged and the last whilst implied doesn’t even exist. Over to you to show your intellectual prowess & I don’t expect my P number 2 to do all the homework
KR at 347
Hillary girls are getting all upset about remarks from Obama suggesting that she ‘the same old same old’ – and yet by her very actions she is demonstrating in her every waking moment that bending rules and broadcasting misleadings information are part of the course. She may be a woman, she may be a mother, but she’s missing out on that ingredient sometimes referred to in dark corners as personal integrity. As you said, it’s not a good look.
EC
‘rono’ “sapiens” demonstrates superiority over all creatures great and small.’
I would have thought, but there you go. Apologies Simon. ‘my P number 2′.
No less!
BTW KR up to chapter 2…amazing…’Colours Iv’e Known’ & The #’s Counted’ working title…any suggestions?
‘There’s enough Kool-Aid for everyone to drink’ Are you sure? lol
Now this is nicely put:
“In truth, May horse-race polls have the predictive powers of a 7-year-old dressed up as a swami and using an upside down goldfish bowl to peer into the future. In the last five presidential elections, the Gallup Poll conducted right before Memorial Day got the eventual winner of the national popular vote wrong.”
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/17/electoral_map/
(I’d like to emphasise that I did not write those words; they were from an article written by another person. I have attached a link to the article for those who would like to read the whole thing. Just click on the funny-looking series of characters above! I have not cut and pasted the entirety of the article into this post, but just the most pertinent sentences.)
Maybe Obama should be fixing to be behind in the polls now, after all?
350
codger
You can always drink your own bathwater if the Kool Aid runs out! LOL
I just love it when the dapper and very proper David Brooks tells it so bluntly in the vernacular: they’re f*cked! LOL
Codge, it makes my heart sing!
roflmao, your ronship. strangely, i don’t feel there is any point in trying to persuade you of anything. call me shallow, say i lack prowess, but never doubt i too am a sanctimonious, latte-sipping, sleazy-dealing intellectual, politically-correct snob.
Yeah, Kirri, prescient article.
“Phillips warned us that “most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out.”
Just as well that sort of thing didn’t happen to the Roman Empire.
See you tomorrow, Bludgers.
Good night EC!
351
SimonH
You’ll get a torrent of ‘elitist latte lapping, butterfly flapping and small doggy yapping’ abuse for doing that SH, be very careful. Beside, we all know that Salon is the recycled refuse of ignorant loathing lefties!
No more US election threads ?!?!
But Australian politics is so boring compared to this stuff!
Brilliant thread title BTW Mr PB, gave me a chuckle. Decided not to ruin the moment by peering into the comment murkiness when I first saw this up, but I’m here now and wow. Quite a few of you need to grow the f*ck up. Seriously, it’s an internet blog, it’s free to use, and you won’t find a more neutral host in the blogosphere, so stop damn well abusing the privilege you have been given.
I speak, of course, to the minority there.
Anyway. As we count down the days (or hours?) to the official end of the primary season, it’s difficult not to reflect that… it has been a fun ride. Last couple of months have been nowhere near as entertaining as the first couple, but don’t we all remember the days of musing over whether Edwards would top Obama in the early primaries, or whether Romney would win the ultimate gamble of banking on latter states to prop him up, or whether ‘America’s Mayor’ would find his mojo…
Ultimately, regardless of what happens now, I’ve got the fight I wanted from the start. McCain vs Obama. Both seem to want what is best for their country, both have passion, both have ideas. Really, this is a battle for America’s spirit. An Obama loss here would psychologically set the country back – the black man couldn’t take out the evil, old, white stereotypical candidate. At least, that’s how history will see it. Democrats will be left to rue how they could possibly lose the unlosable election, and the scars will run deep for years to come.
And yet… what would be the cost of an Obama presidency, complete with a double digit senate majority, untouchable house majority and an opposition which will struggle to tie its own shoelaces and will probably take a half decade or more to become effective again? Is that really a good path for the country to go down? What if the Democrats decides to close America’s doors to the world market, albeit fractionally, while China opens its doors ever wider to the world? Should debate in Congress really run along the lines of ’should we appeal to the centre or the hard left in this one?’ Is ANY government left unchecked a good one?
Regardless, America has made its first choice: this is a battle for the centre. And I for one think the latte sipper will pull it off. And at this stage, I hope he does, simply because the US needs a shot in the arm and maybe this is what will do it. But it’s a long road to November. And by the looks of it, I might need to find a new home to settle in now to ramble in. Maybe I should start my own blog?
See ya Ecky, another sleep, another step closer to seeing off the Shills of Hills.
‘Any analysis of the political climate has to factor in the jaw-dropping statistic from the recent Washington Post-ABC News poll that 82 percent of the public believes that the country is on the “wrong track.”‘
So what might this p*ssed off demographic do Simon? Should they bother to vote that is.
357
Max
Australia has politics?
I’ve stopped listening to ABC radio, it’s only about corpses FFS. Who gives a flying monkey’s if Alexander Pooh Bear is retiring? He’s a nobody, a flatulent windbag backbencher. And Horatio and his 5 cents?
What in god’s name is anyone doing even giving these morons air to breathe?
Nup, the only game in town is Obama Vs McCain, and it’s going to be a cracker.
On a note on the delegate totals… I think the real question now becomes when will the magic number be reached?
It wouldn’t surprise me if, should Clinton not concede tonight, Obama privately cautions against too many superdelegates coming out over the next week and a bit. There is a very good chance that enough of them could come out before June 3 to finish the job – he will only need about 70 after tonight.
BUT the problem with that is… the media would call the race at slightly different times, because they have slightly different delegate counts. A week of confusion where one by one the media calls the battle, followed by flat out denials from the HRC camp, declarations she will see the battle through, the Obama camp torn over whether to claim victory… it would be very messy and quite possibly ugly, and not give the Dems that ‘united front’ moment they so desperately need.
What he really needs is a definitive moment when he can thank Clinton and move on to the next battle. And all sources suggest that that moment is going to be June 3. Clinton really won’t have a choice then, it will be a case of either conceding or have it conceded for her the next day when 50 SD’s announce as one their endorsement. So it wouldn’t surprise me if the trend of SD flows slowed just slightly over the next two weeks.
Yeah, pretty much what I said yesterday, but so much more eloquent is the Rude Pundit:
Why Bill Kristol Ought to Be Sodomized with a Rolled-Up Issue of The Nation (Part 327):
In today’s New York Times, the Clarence Thomas of the paper’s regular columnists, William Kristol, tries to give hope to John McCain supporters that they shall overcome the Barack Obama juggernaut. And it’s such a pathetic little half-whimper of a rallying cry that it’s more or less the rhetorical equivalent of a would-be prison bitch being punched in the face repeatedly by the yard’s biggest man-rapist who wants his ass. Yeah, you feel sorry for the bitch as he desperately swings his fists at the air, but you know that in the end, how ever much his nose is busted up and he’s tasting blood, that poor f*cker’s gettin’ reamed out.
http://rudepundit.blogspot.com/
…I recommend the remainder of this fine political discourse and warn the gentle reader that it gets very funny!
As things stand now, i agree with that conclusion Max.
However the caveat is the $20 Million debt. Since the day after NC it has all been about that for HRC. If/when/how that gets resolved could have her conceding tomorrow or never.
She is not going to wear a debt like that, especially as $11M of it is personally hers.
But , assuming a financial deal is worked out , it looks like plodding on till June 3.
On May 31 the Dem commitee will allot Michigan and Florida delegates. Michigan will be 69/59 split in Clintons favour and the Florida vote will stand with each delegate given half a vote.
Hillary will acknowledge defeat but will let the last state vote.
Then return to the Senate.
Max at 361
All of the signs are pointing to a scenario wherein Obama lets Clinton loose with grace. In tonights closing event we will see Obama taking the pledged delegate lead and what we don’t know here and now is if that lead will be sufficient to claim the majority if Florida and Michigan are seated. As such, if he makes too big a deal out of the majority benchmark, he faces a possibility of loosing the majority on the 31 – but not dropping much in terms of his lead over Clinton. It’s an interesting and delicate position. I don’t think we will see any concession from Hillary as she has committed herself to run out all of the votes which would take thing out to the 7 June. Only at that time will the rules be clarified, and the numbers totaled, and Obama established as Hillary’s endorsed candidate for the Democratic nominee.
Crude oil at US$129 and the AUD nudging 96 cents, and you can just hear the screams from here as the DOW plunges over the cliff.
We’ve got lots of that before November folks, and it will focus the punter’s minds on a darn sight more than flag pins.
Of that, you can be assured.
Night all.
G’night KR!
Superdelegate Update
Rep. Madeleine Bordallo from Guam has endorsed Barack Obama.
This pushes Obama’s lead to 204 delegates over Clinton.
Obama: 1922 delegates locked in, 103 to close (24.9% of the pool)
Clinton: 1718 delegates locked in, 307 to close (74.2% of the pool)
Superdelegate Update
Iowa Democratic Party chairman Scott Brennan has endorsed Barack Obama. Scott’s endorsement focussed on the majority of pledged delegates tipping point coming up in just a few hours from now. He went on to say the following with respect to the ongoing race.
With Scott getting into line an all, Obama extends his lead to 205 and the pool shrinks to 413, and that makes it just a little more difficult for Hillary Clinton to mount her case.
The numbers as we head into the latest contest …
Obama: 1923 and 102 to win (or 24% of the pool)
Clinton: 1718 and 307 to win (or 74% of the pool)
And by this time tomorrow the pool percentage numbers noted above are going to make today look like a high moment for the Duracell Delegate’s campaign.
CNN just reported that Doctors say Senator Ted Kennedy has malignant brain tumor; condition discovered after he had seizure.
Drs. Lee Schwamm and Larry Ronan of Massachusetts General Hospital, where Kennedy is being treated, released this statement Tuesday:
“Over the course of the last several days, we’ve done a series of tests on Senator Kennedy to determine the cause of his seizure. He has had no further seizures, remains in good overall condition, and is up and walking around the hospital. Some of the tests we had performed were inconclusive, particularly in light of the fact that the Senator had severe narrowing of the left carotid artery and underwent surgery just 6 months ago.
“However, preliminary results from a biopsy of the brain identified the cause of the seizure as a malignant glioma in the left parietal-lobe. The usual course of treatment includes combinations of various forms of radiation and chemotherapy. Decisions regarding the best course of treatment for Senator Kennedy will be determined after further testing and analysis. Senator Kennedy will remain at Massachusetts General Hospital for the next couple of days according to routine protocol. He remains in good spirits and full of energy.”
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/20/kennedy.tumor/index.html
Superdelegate Update (3)
Following the script from Rocky I, Hillary Clinton scores a super delegate, one Martha Coakley from Massachusetts thereby reclaiming 1 point on the table, but losing one on the pool.
The numbers …
Obama: 1923 (resting on 102 to close the deal)
Clinton: 1719 (pulling the deficit in to 306)
Well said, Max at #357. The passion released seems to have made enemies of old allies. But the two views are not easily reconcilable until a lot more information is known. Add to that a voluntary voting system and some dodgy and variable enrolment requirements and it becomes harder to predict.
Personally, I’m with you, too. I like the idea of a leader extending hope to people, especially those who’ve had none in the last few years.
Delivery may well raise a new set of problems, but it is surely worth giving a try after the debasement of leadership in the past few years.
The Schedule
Kentucky
Polls close at 7.00 PM Eastern (9 AM EST)
Oregon
Polls close at 11.00 PM Eastern (12.30 PM EST)
Hillary proves the dictum that there is only one thing worse than being talked about, and this NOT being talked about:
The push on the Internet comes amid signs that Mrs. Clinton is getting less attention these days, both in the blogosphere and the mainstream media. Techpresident.com reports that according to the blog search tool Technorati, Mrs. Clinton is being mentioned less than half as often as Senator Barack Obama in the blogosphere and that mentions of her have even slipped below those of Senator John McCain.
And the Project for Excellence in Journalism, which tracks the weekly coverage of the candidates in various media, reports that Mrs. Clinton was a significant factor in 53 percent of the coverage last week, compared with 68 percent for Mr. Obama.
NYT (that’s short for New York Times, Ron, in case it’s too hard for you. I put that at the end of quotes which I precede with a colon, one of these:)
So she’s dying from a lack of attention, so to get some, she’s invented a new math, and that’s about it for relevance now.
And for those who like toys that move numbers around, the NYTimes has a nice slider on the front page which computes how what percentage of the delegates remaining Obama needs to win.
Have fun:
http://www.nytimes.com/
(Just for Ron: It shows you that Obama, if he wins his usual 53% of the remaining delegates today, will need only 3% of the remaining Supers. In other words, Hillary is kaput, finished, irrelevant. But if you’d like to tell us over and over again what a great candidate she is, then feel free. Nothing like irrelevance, eh, Ron?)
CNN polling results are starting to come in for Kentucky.
Clinton: 52%
Obama: 44%
5% reporting
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#KY
CNN Kentucky: 7% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 45%
Nice trend there Catrina. Doubtful it will continue, though.
From what I’ve heard – early numbers will be from metropolitan centers favoring Obama and the trend will head downhill. But your right – nice numbers to start the morning off with.
CNN Kentucky: 9% reporting
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 46%
Feeling sad today for Teddy Kennedy and his family: a great man, and a passionate advocate for social justice! Let’s all send him our prayers!
Kentucky: unless Hillary wins it with 80% of the vote, her anticipated victory in the primary doesn’t change the overall maths!
Apparently a big turnout in Oregon today – you’d expect Obama will win here comfortably!
One interesting figure from the Kentucky exit polls: 40% of respondents say John Edward’s endorsement of Obama affected their vote today.
CNN Kentucky: 11% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
Considering Obama didn’t bother campaigning in Kentucky, he’s doing well to be losing by only 5 points so far, but you’d expect Hillary’s lead will grow!
CNN Kentucky: 13% reporting
Clinton: 49%
Obama: 48%
No, its not a typo.
And another little update, for those thinking that the ‘crisis’ in US financial markets are over:
Shares of large-cap U.S. banking stocks traded lower Tuesday after analysts at Oppenheimer & Co. said they see the turmoil in credit markets lingering at least into next year.
“As we see no near- or medium-term comeback in securitization volumes, we believe losses will only accelerate further and far worse than even the most draconian estimates,” according to Whitney. “Due to continued deterioration in consumer liquidity, we are raising our loss expectations significantly for the group and lowering our earnings estimates significantly.”
Marketwatch
…so at least another year, maybe more. This is a long ride, and it’s downhill and very bumpy.
By November, nobody will be unaware that the economy is seriously rooted.
CNN Kentucky: 15% reporting
Clinton: 50%
Obama: 47%
CNN have called the race for Clinton.
CNN Kentucky: 16% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
Hullo Bludgers,
Something is going on in Ky that seems to be stalling HRC. Perhaps Edward’s endorsement of Bazza is playing??
13% of vote counted and The Kid’s only a point behind?!? Mousing over the countys, can’t figure where his votes are coming from. Maybe just an aberraration in tallying or perhaps I’m still dreaming.
CNN Kentucky: 17% reporting
Clinton: 51%
Obama: 46%
CNN Kentucky: 22% reporting
Clinton: 54%
Obama: 43%
CNN Kentucky: 24% reporting
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 41%
CNN Kentucky: 28% reporting
Clinton: 56%
Obama: 40%
Looks like the Kettle clan have finally having their votes counted
Oops…’are’ finally having
CNN Kentucky: 31% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 39%
Come on Ecky, WAKE UP, this is more banjo territory! LOL
Plunkin’ for Hillary.
Funny, but Obama is exactly where Kerry was in Kentucky this far out from the election (info courtesy of a native to the state), so the notion that Obama is poison to poor whites is probably only true in the sense he’s a Northerner, and considered a ‘liberal’. This particular native son reckons that Obama will do a lot better with attention to the state, and presumably Hillary may even offer to help when she’s not inventing new math.
CNN Kentucky: 34% reporting
Clinton: 55%
Obama: 42%
Another few city booths must have come in. Geez it’s bouncin’ around in them thar hills.
Check out the most recent KY polls – the Kid isn’t doing too bad at this stage:
RCP Average 05/05 – 05/18 — 58.4 29.4 Clinton +29.0
Suffolk 05/17 – 05/18 600 LV Clinton +26.0
SurveyUSA 05/16 – 05/18 629 LV Clinton +31.0
American Res. Group 05/14 – 05/15 600 LV Clinton +36.0
Research 2000 05/07 – 05/09 500 LV Clinton +27.0
Rasmussen 05/05 – 05/05 800 LV Clinton +25.0
I doubt Kentucky will matter that much in November, at least for the presidential race!
In other breaking news: another 10 of Edwards former delegates have declared for Obama
Do you have a link?
I see McCain is still getting over 25% voting for ‘anyone but McCain’. The ‘Uncommitted’ at 6% is high. For 6% to come out and vote for ‘none of the above’ is interesting in itself.
CNN Kentucky: 41% reporting
Clinton: 57%
Obama: 40%
CNN exit polls on gender of voters: 57/43 F/M
And the age distribution has 44% between 45-64.
Pretty skewed demographic. Looks like a lot of blokes did not bother to turn out. It’s the Menopausal Bloc vote for Hillary.
Letcher County voting for Clinton. They must think Bill’s the candidate. And they say in Harlan Gounty their are no neutrals there – 80% for Hillary. Sheesh!
there
I’m surprised it’s on 18 points difference after 42 counted. I suspect it will drift out.
Robert Bollard at 407
Wikipedia: The median income for a household in the county was $21,110, and the median income for a family was $24,869. Males had a median income of $30,488 versus $17,902 for females. The per capita income for the county was $11,984. About 23.70% of families and 27.10% of the population were below the poverty line, including 35.90% of those under age 18 and 21.20% of those age 65 or over.
Tues May 20:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=AvsDwLvpjRI7m5o1eg_Nm1Ml6ysC
CNN Kentucky: 44% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 39%
CNN Kentucky: 48% reporting
Clinton: 58%
Obama: 38%
KR – Mental Bloc perhaps – don’t you think Menopausal Bloc is innappropriate? Its not a description older women that appeals to me.
CNN Kentucky: 54% reporting
Clinton: 59%
Obama: 37%
A quick word on Ted Kennedy. Sadly, it’s not good news.
A malignant glioma which is going to be treated with chemo +/- radiotherapy has a very poor prognosis. He may get a good response to the RT and a small number will be cured, maybe 5%. But overall, 50% will die within a year. Also, he should resign as he is likely to develop mental impairment given that the tumour is in his left parietal lobe which controls rational thought.
CNN Kentucky: 55% reporting
Clinton: 62%
Obama: 34%
CNN Kentucky: 61% reporting
Clinton: 64%
Obama: 32%
414
Wakefield
It’s a flippant play on some of the politically correct ‘block vote’ (ie ‘black’ vote) that’s been often used.
And given the demographic, older women (oh, yeah, and ‘white’), maybe we could call it the White Menopausal Block, or how about the White Older Menopausal Block, or WOMB for short?
Sorry, I just got carried away.
WMB then, is that OK? LOL
A massive 30% KY loss by Obama amongst registered Democrat voters normally
would cause concern but not here with Obamabots having the howardism fact syndrome
Oregon may e 14% Obama’s way due to sub groups of Demographics but KY is the same message as OH , PA & NW
416
Diogenes
I would have thought that brain tumours aren’t usually ‘good’ news Dio. I still remember the shock of Andrew Ollie leaving us so abruptly, but at least grandfather Ted has had a somewhat longer innings.
420
Ron
And what ‘message’ is that Ron? That poor whites prefer Hillary? Well, guess what old son, they can’t have her in November. They’ll just have to get over it I guess, like you have.
416
Diogenes
They call economics the dismal science, but I have a mate in epidemiology, and I reckon that beats economics hands down.
KR
There are a lot of brain tumours that are easily curable and require no chemo or radiotherapy. They also don’t need to remove any “brain tissue” in those tumours and there is no cerebral deficit. But Ted’s is not one of them.
KR 422
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUvQzgxTxmE
One of Obama’s strategies clearly must be to bridge the gap with rural and lower socio-economic voters. There’s around 60 million rural voters in the US so this is not a block that he can ignore. He will need Hillary onside to assist, particularly with the country cousins.
Ron: Kentucky doesn’t matter, it’ll stay Republican in November, irrespective of whoever the Democrat nominee is.
I can’t see why Clinton keeps campaigning, unless it’s for financial reasons, to raise money to pay off her campaign debt. She won’t get the nomination, Obama has more delegates, the superdelegates won’t disenfranchise black voters & a good proportion of whites by switching to Hillary.
So Clinton is speaking and seemingly going nowhere until June.
Which really was expected. And in a way let’s face it, we would all be in some twisted way disappointed if the game ended two weeks before it had to. We’ve gone this far now, may as well see it through to the end.
At least we have a countdown. 13 days to go, probably to the hour, until we have our concession. Now all we need is a clock counting down.
Paragraph of the day so far:
Big call. Shame about the maths.
Ferny Grover: I presume that’s the value of Edwards endorsing Obama, Edwards helps shore up poor/lower income white voters for Obama?
To Jen , Megan , Catrina & Grace
k/r says “the White Menopausal Block”
Are you lot prepared to tell your ‘colleague’ k/r that his term for female pro Hillary voters in KY of quote “the White Menopausal Block” is not OK ?
(just curious , for mine k/r had no class in the first place)
Ron at 420
Idaho, a 63% loss for Clinton, Kansas: 48%, Georgia 36%, Colorado 35%, Alaska 49%, Hawaii 52%, and your point is?
CNN Kentucky: 86% reporting
Clinton: 65%
Obama: 31%
425
Robert Bollard
Ain’t much changed then, huh?
(Not one of his great songs, but all his unique idiomatic structures are there, even the lousy tuning! LOL)
Ron at 430
Yes, your right. KR was wrong this time.
If you look at the exit polls it is clear that we are talking about a largely post-Menopausal block. KR – I demand an immediate public apology and correction.
Oh, r/Ron are you outraged enough?
While they come out with their vox pops: “I ain’t votin’ fa no nigga” or “he’s a Muslim aint’ he” or “I ain’t votin’ for no Hussein” you do seem a might precious about older women’s reproductive status. It’s a medical term Ron, not a term of abuse.
Do you know the difference?
434
Catrina
“Post” is it, Delphic Oracle!
LOL, ya crack me up!