Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.
2,133 Comments
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William must think we’re all a bunch of crackpots LOL
Jen: of course you can bring your high horse!
Kirribilli Removals: No doubt the Republicans are preparing the mother of all dirty tricks/smear campaigns for this election. Hopefully it backfires badly on them.
The recent vote in Mississippi proves that negative politics/personal attacks doesn’t work in 2008! It’s the economy, stupid!
KR @ 49 – [The stereotypes will not stand up to this information.]
Yes, exactly. It will help neutralise the patriotism attacks before they really start. The handbrake for the Repugs is that it is not a good look to attack an opponent’s frail grandparents or parents, which is what they would have to do – as in “Oh yeah, we bet Grandma Obama didn’t wear a lapel pin when riveting our bombers together in WW2″ – It just wouldn’t work, would it?
He is doing the correct thing putting it all out there now – I think plenty of background stuff from Barry’s (I hadn’t realised Obama was known as ‘Barry’ iin his younger days) all-American basketball buddies in Honolulu when at school would also be a good idea.
52- Australia elects a Kevin, Americans might elect a Barry. Will the Brits elect a Davo?
Someone earlier was saying they felt sorry for Colin Powell. I almost puked. I think of all the Iraq villains, he was the worst. The others are intrinsically evil people. And, as Ed Burke said, for evil to triumph it is necessary only that good men do nothing. In this case the “good man” did worse than nothing. He sold his credibility out and threw everything that is decent out the window. He will rot in hell with the rest. If he has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.
Or if you listen to this Flaming Lips clip (it needs to be VERY LOUD and you need to love people wearing furry animal costumes) Colin Powell is the Scarecrow, Ashcroft is the Tin Man and Rumsfeld is the Lion and they’re leading us down the Yellow Brick Road to Iraq. The song is George Bush’s Severed Head Army Mix.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AHsLZ7zYKsQ&feature=related
Sense has prevailed:
“MILWAUKIE, Ore. – Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10438.html
Some movement on RCP. Obama’s SD lead has moved up one from 21 to 22.
Meanwhile a Suffolk poll has just been released showing Obama’s Oregon lead over Clinton has been trimmed to +4. This follows an American Res Group poll released a couple of days ago showing Obama’s lead at +5. This leaves his average lead at 10.8 a drop of 2 since this morning.
Hillary’s KY lead has also been trimmed very slightly to 29.6
Diogenes – ‘Flaming Lips clip’ ? Crikey – don’t say that 6 times quickly! And with ‘furry animal costumes’. Is that sort of thing allowed on YouTube? Hmmm … I don’t think I should look.
FernyG @ 55 – Seems like a sensible call – that sort of declaration would gain nothing and could get some backs up unnecessarily. There’s no need to engage the Clinton camp now. Why jump back in the water when you’ve just climbed into the lifeboat?
And FernyG – Did you notice that amazing picture of the Oregon crowd on your link page- the tightly packed sea of faces? A lot of – dare I say it – white faces. I think the pics of that crowd might assist in closing the race off. It just has to resonate as a symbol of the overall mood for Barry that will carry right through into the general campaign.
RG @28,
1. I actually posted the up date for your information. A thank you would be nice. One free swipe is allowed.
2. You could have contacted the site owner instead of causing all this bother.
3. At least everyone knows you are a poor old Marxist which is good for an informed debate/discussion.
4. Is calling me names the Marxist doctrine or the your famous teaching skills coming out?
5. You got a lively discussion.
Cheers
Diogenes #54. Powell began hbis career as a 31 year old “investigator” who discovered nothing wrong at Mai Lai. That he was the considered a liberal woose in the Bush administration says something for the regime that’s been running then world for the last 8 years.
Just a footnote about the idiot Grover Norquist and his lunatic notion that all tax is theft. Essentially, most people in most major countries actually see income redistribution via taxation as THE purpose of government:
The Financial Times reports on a FT/Harris survey found a surprising consensus across eight countries in Europe and Asia, as well as in the US, that increasing income disparity was undesirable. Not surprisingly, respondents favored increasing taxes on the rich.
…and the numbers are astounding. We aren’t talking election majorities, we are talking 75-85% in Europe for example. (Japan was the lowest at 64%).
It seems the far right have a tendency to dream up ludicrous panaceas in fields like foreign policy and social policy, then by ignoring the evidence of what people actually want, shove them at the public and call any opposition the work of ‘liberals’ ‘appeasers’ or non-patriots.
Superdelegate Update
DNC Dwight Pelz (WA) has endorsed Obama bring his overall delegate lead back to 199 while dropping the pool of remaining delegates to 410.
Running tally of delegates needed to close the race:
Obama: 108 (26.3% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (74.9% of the pool)
A reality-check analysis (on Bloomberg) as to why we shouldn’t be too concerned over the VP choices:
Over the past 50 years, 17 men and one woman have been chosen by the major parties to run for the vice presidency of the U.S. Only one — Lyndon Johnson in 1960 — demonstrably affected the outcome of the presidential race.
This is worth remembering as the nation enters the quadrennial feeding frenzy over completing the tickets. It’s a big decision for Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama and will send important signals; it probably won’t make much difference on Nov. 4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a8aZdQtitYJo
Getting this war up against Iran is proving a lot harder than the last one for Idiot Decider:
The George W Bush administration’s plan to create a new crescendo of accusations against Iran for allegedly smuggling arms to Shi’ite militias in Iraq has encountered not just one but two setbacks.
The government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki refused to endorse US charges of Iranian involvement in arms smuggling to Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army, and a plan to show off a huge collection of Iranian arms captured in and around the central city of Karbala had to be called off after it was discovered that none of the arms was of Iranian origin.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/JE16Ak02.html
…a little war for Macca to talk tough about would just be what the doctor ordered, eh?
Pity the Iraqis keep refusing to play ball.
jaundiced view at 63
However, many historical trends could be well and truly be moved to redundancy given that internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA.
KR at 64
Whatever happened to those good old days when you could count on the loyalty of your friends?
Catrina @ 65 – [internet-in-your-face access exists in over 211 million end-points across the USA]
You might be right about a change in the election dynamics on what we’vee seen in the campaign so far Catrina – maybe Obama should choose as VP someone who would be a good web-cam dancer on YouTube.
66
Catrina
Remeber when puppet governments were exactly that, and danced on the end of a string to your tune?
But these modern day ones, aargh, they have no idea how to behave. Imagine, they act like it’s their country and that they can choose how to treat their neighbours.
It’s so uncouth!
Jen, you earlier posted about some grunt using the Koran for target practice. Well, here’s an interesting letter to the editor in today’s NYT, and it’s conclusion sums up just why they just cannot behave like this and hope to win anything in the ME:
Thomas L. Friedman quotes Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator, who has observed that in the Middle East, the United States is “not liked, not feared and not respected.”
My travels in the Middle East tell me that Mr. Miller’s assessment might be generous.
We have squandered the respect and admiration once felt for us in the Arab world, and we are now seen as aggressive militarists bent on imposing our will on the Arab people and their nations and blindly supporting Israel in its oppression of the Palestinians.
At all levels of Arab societies, one hears the mantra: “We like the American people. We do not like your government.”
Our sitting president is usually singled out as the prime culprit, but in truth, there are many who share the responsibility for our tarnished image.
We are in a struggle against terrorism and extreme fundamentalism. We cannot win without the help of the Arab world and the larger Muslim world. It is sheer madness to alienate them as we have done.
…should we put up GG’s response on the NYT to show the quality of Australian discourse?
Eh? LOL
GG#59 You are doing handstands and back flips to cover yourself, but it just won’t work. I posted a straightforward and purely psephological concern about a US site. You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse. Now I’m at fault because I didn’t notify the site of my concerns first “instead of causing all this bother”. What bother? I’m sure the author of the site is terribly upset that you and I have had an argument on an Australian website about the validity of his methodology (or to be more precise, I’ve questioned it and you’ve called me – for some obscure reason “Colonel Klink”).
The fact is that your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response. You read my original post and all you noticed was that I had had a go at Hillary for being “poll-driven” re her initial support for the Iraq War and that now (shock horror!) I was talking about polls as if I cared what they said. Unless you’re a dribbling cretin (which, despite your occasional stupidity I suspect you’re not) this was not a serious answer to the post but an off the cuff crack based on the fact that you’ve given up on any form of intervention except the frivolous and the gladiatorial. You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word “polls” and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
Fair enough at one level.
But you’ve since tried to alter your argument at least twice to cover up the initial abuse. Now your concern is my failure to contact the poor maligned Votemaster. To be honest, while I am curious to know why he/she has adopted the methods he/she has, it never occurred to me that he/she would be interested in an email from an Aussie. In any case I can’t find an address on the site. But who cares? If I had a go at Fox News, or CBS or MSNBC or the Wangaratta Courier would you demand that I emailed them first before besmirched their name by questioning their methodology?
PS I am poor and a Marxist, but I’m not a poor Marxist.
jaundiced view at 67
Its a lot more than just election dynamics – it goes straight into the hear of the principal of government for the people by the people. If you think about this from a geo-political perspective, the USA is on the cusp of having less internet users than China (at least in 2007 the numbers were 210 for USA and 162 for China). Accountability of government directly to the people outside of regular media channels is something very new and its this challenge that presents an opportunity for the Democrats to hold power for a really long stretch. In effect – you have the combination of the technology with the entry of new voters. The Republican Party will loose this election, and they will have to take the trip into the wilderness and rei9nvent themselves – but that will take a long time simply because they will be struggling to bring the new blood.
RB,for what it’s worth, what you’ve described is exactly what happened, but the behaviour is now so predictable I doubt I really need to tell anyone that.
RB, you were quite right the first time: dipstick.
Take it easy on GG Robert.
After all , he’s having to do all his own groundwork the last few days. No r/Ron,no Finns or no Glen to do the groundwork while he waits for his opening to abuse.
Poor sod is having to initiate , do a bit of hard work and finally get his big chance to abuse.
I bet the Ol Dog is sittin’ at the monitor pleading for his cultivated allies to return to battle.
Something to cheer up the hungry pack wolves.
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,355756,00.html
Mmmmm, Faux News telling it like it REALLY is!
That’s gotta be a first.
Some breakdowns:
Rasmussen Reports regularly asks voters to identify themselves ideologically on both fiscal and social issues. The significance of this distinction is highlighted by the fact that just 11% of voters currently consider themselves fiscally liberal while 29% say they are liberal when it comes to social issues. An overview of how the nation’s voters break down along these lines was presented last fall.
Not surprisingly, among voters who are both fiscally and socially liberal, Obama leads McCain 84% to 6%. Among those who are conservative on both scales, McCain leads Obama 80% to 9%. As for those who consider themselves moderate on both fiscal policy and social issues, Obama is favored 54% to 36%.
When the views of those who are fiscally moderate but socially liberal are measured, Obama comes out on top, 72% to 21%. As for those who are fiscally conservative but socially moderate, McCain leads 70% to 20%. The categories of voters mentioned in these two paragraphs cover 67% of the nation’s voters.
…moderates on both, like say independents? Nice.
That’s the easy response, KR. Actually, I read the article, and it says almost nothing. It might cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas.
Meanwhile, the RCP have added two SDs to Obama. Dom’t know who they are and I couldn’t be buggred at this hour trying to find out. No doubt the Goddess of superdelegates, Catrina, will enlighten us in due course.
77
Robert Bollard
Gotta admit I read it too, but was way too lazy to come up with anything as remotely amusing as “cheer up a pack of peckish chihuahuas”!
You can feel the desperation, knowing that they are going to get walloped in Nov and all that stands between them and annihilation is a very old man who’s mostly not even considered a real Republican by their base.
Good luck!
KR #76 What do they mean my “fiscally liberal”. Classic liberalism is pro-free market, but, of course, in the US “liberal” means something different. I would expect that there are a large number of Americans who are pissed off at NAFTA, at the consequences of neo-liberalism etc who are socially conservative (haven’t I just described Hillary’s base?). I find it hard to believe that only 11% are fiscally liberal. The other problem is whether the survey asked them: “are you fiscally liberal”, and the bitters answered “goddam I hate them liberals! They want to take my guns!”
RB,
I accept your sincere apology. However, I am sad that:
1.You replied to my quite detailed analysis with pointless abuse.
2.You didn’t bother to read what I said but merely saw the word GG and thought that would do for a cheap crack.
3.Your only concern on this site appears to be to wait for what you think is an opening to have a crack at your opponents and provoke a response.
The pleasure has been all yours.
Greeensborough Gardner at 80
Oh gosh! Oh my! Pot, kettle, black?
ROTFLOL
79
Robert Bollard
It’s fascinating the way they’ve inverted the English language, isn’t it?
I really can’t decide whether being ‘fiscally liberal’ is rude or not! LOL
(Although I took it to mean those who’d like to see higher taxation and more ‘liberal’ services)
81
Catrina
It’s a very special brand of irony, isn’t it?
Is this a hint of things to come? Obama tells Tennessee’s GOP: ‘Lay off my wife’.
The kid is drawing some lines in the sand.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24708462/
GG#80 regarding my “apology” – a joke told to me by an old Jewish Trotskyist (born in Palestine in 1917 – a good year).
Circa 1931, Mayday parade in Moscow. Stalin is in his element. After the march he announces to the crowd: “Comrades, I have a telegram from Trotsky! [Boos] It reads: ‘I’m wrong. You’re right. I should apologise.’” The crowd goes wild, but up the front a small Jewish man is jumping up and down with his hand in the air. Stalin ignores him at first, but the man is insistent. Eventually Stalin says: “What is the matter comrade?” “Comrade Stalin! Comrade Stalin! You read it wrong!” “What do you mean?” The man pleads with Stalin to let him read the telegram and, eventually, Stalin relents. He reads:
“I’m wrong?!!! You’re right?!!!! I should apologise?????!!!!!”
85
Robert Bollard
Delightful.
Apposite.
Pearls before swine, unfortunately.
OK.
Long day.
Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers (and slapping the children when they muck up)
Got that?
Night all.
RB, you’ re a very nice old Marxist.
Non! je ne regrette rien!
It’s goodnight to you. And it’s goodnight to him.
Kirribilli Removals at 87
Yes sir, will do!
KR,
You remind me of a chihuaha trying to root my ugg boot. I admire the intensity of effort and I love that earnest cross eyed look you get at a particular moment. However, it is never going to work out mechanically because whenever I get up for another beer you fall off and roll on your back with your legs in the air. All you can see is this tiny red dick. And that is my image of you.
Good night.
Greeensborough Gardner at 90
*slap*
Well worth reading….
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/19/barackobama.uselections2008
Superdelegate Update
Barak Obama breaks through the 200 ceiling with his delegate lead over Hillary Clinton with the endorsement by Senator Robert Byrd from West Virginia.
As a consequence – the end game numbers shift a little and the pool shrinks just a little bit more with just 409 delegates undeclared (220 supers and 189 pledged). The number of delegates that Obama needs to win the nomination is now down to 107 while Clinton stays stead on 307. Looking ahead beyond the Kentucky and Oregon competitions the pool will shrink again to around 311. Obama will be looking to secure a further 59 delegates while Clinton will be staring down the barrel of a missing 257 delegates against a pool of just 311 (which is just 57 delegates away from the end-of-time).
Dio at 54: “If he (Colin Powell) has a shred of decency about him, he would have spoken out after he left the Bush Administration. He is a sock-puppet homunculus.”
Amplifying Robert Bollard at 60,
Colin Powell was once Colonel Colin Powell of the 7th Americal Division in Vietnam, the propaganda unit that denied the My Lai massacre had taken place until in broke in the US MSM in the days when the MSM actually had a skerrick of integrity. Powell always sat comfortably on Uncle Sammy’s porch till he was “cut loose” to shill the propaganda that helped manufacture homegrown consent for the Iraq invasion and occupation with his shuck and jive powerpoint display at the UN in 2003.
“In his report Powell wrote: “In direct refutation of this portrayal is the fact that relations between Americal soldiers and the Vietnamese people are excellent.” Powell’s handling of the assignment was later characterized by some observers as “whitewashing” the atrocities of My Lai.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/My_Lai_massacre
Another Superdelegate Update
Obama breaks though the 300 superdelegate endorsment count with the endorsement today from DNC Larry Gates from Kansas. Larry’s endorsement puts Obama’s super delegate total at 300.5 compared to Clinton’s 276.5. The pool of remaining delegates drops to 408.
The numbers (pledged, supers, and the Pelosi factor):
Obama: 1919
Clinton: 1718
The numbers needed to close the nomination:
Obama: 106 (26% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.2% of the pool)
But keep in mind the shake-up on Tuesday when 98 delegates are removed from the pool, leaving just 310 delegates in play. Although Clinton will probably gain some ground on Tuesday, it is for the most part just clutching at straws in that it will not come close to number of delegates that Obama has captured in the last week alone. Irrespective of all of that, these numbers will probably be shaken up on the 31 May when Michigan anf Florida come into play, but even then, the advantage to Clinton will not have an appreciable impact on the Obama lead.
Mon May 19: http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AsQbWqf1hJwKcCwCVZubcZpX_b4F
Oh – poor Fido!
Yes, life’s cruel, Catrina, it’s always the innocents who end up taking the fall, like the hapless pooch, although I’ll wager this one didn’t go anywhwere near ugg boots.
There’s a whole bunch of mightily peeved GOP-lovin’ pet owners out there who are going to stay home in droves come November:)
———————–
“Clinton’s path looks something like this: Win huge in the remaining states (a massive margin in Kentucky and an upset in Oregon), close Obama’s 700,000-vote lead in the popular tally (without counting Florida and Michigan), and marshal these numbers to persuade superdelegates of Obama’s unelectability. Piece of cake.”
http://www.slate.com/id/2191697/
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080519_thriller/
Enemy Combatant at 98
Re. the graveyard shift – LOL – yes, yes, and just remember I’ve still got a bunch of final nails in stock.
Hope they’re longuns. Couple of years ago my darlin’ daughter turned me on to NIN. Like ‘em a lot but I’m forbidden from mentioning it in front of her mates!
Better get back to the casket before the the sun comes up. Cheers.
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