Democratic primaries will be held Wednesday our time in Oregon and Kentucky, which will respectively choose 52 and 51 delegates. Below is another race associated with the latter state, which this year ended with runner-up Eight Belles having to be put down*. Does the knackers’ yard beckon for a certain second-placed Democratic nag? Discuss.
* Unfortunately for my metaphor, Clinton in fact holds a handy 30.5 per cent lead in Kentucky, according to Real Clear Politics. Obama however leads by 12.4 per cent in Oregon.
2,133 Comments
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Ooooh, David Brooks said a rude word!
Anyway, this idea that this is the end of Reaganism, of star wars, of pre-emptive wars, of expanding to the ends of the universe militarism is just beginning to sink in! LOL
They are, in the word of Brooks: f**ked!
So much for history repeating itself. It doesn’t. And this year will draw to a close so much balloney that’s been peddled for a couple of decades: into the bin it goes.
The Idiot Decider has proven one thing: that Reaganism and neoconservative philosophy is utterly bankrupt, and they should know, they’ve tried it out on their country for the last 8 years, and it’s almost bankrupt too.
The argument re Iran is an interesting one. The thing is, voters generally do not vote on logical grounds, so the logic of either argument is in fact pretty irrelevant to the politics. To declare my bias, I am in the ‘The Iranian leadership is irrational and thus Iran cannot be allowed to develop the nuclear bomb’ camp.
On the politics, McCain appeals to the fears of a substantial block of voters who might vote Democrat on other grounds (the economy, for example). Personally, I do not think that foreign affairs issues such as this will feed much into the November vote, but any advantage – however tiny – that comes with this issue belongs to McCain.
202
David Gould
After a concerted lie and fear mongering about WMD, I’d suspect a lot of people won’t be buying their foreign policy from Republicans for quite a while.
Look at N Korea, supposedly has a bomb. Pakistan (a stable place? Military that backs the Taliban?). Has the world descended into chaos?
As for the Iranian regime, I’d contend from watching them over the last five years, that they are a damn sight more rational than GWBush! But that’s a long argument.
In the end, if Iran wants to play the game, then they will need to negotiate some rules, and that’s what will happen. In the meantime, getting all bellicose with them simply plays into their hands, because a VERY large segment of the Iranain population would dearly love to be rid of the mullahs, but when the US is shaking a fist at the country, it only helps to keep them in power.
It’s a much more subtle game that anything Macca has tallked about, and he’s just pandering to the ‘bomb ‘em’ brigade.
Hardly the thinking side, is it?
Just when you thought it was safe to go back on the blog…….
HE’s BACK…..and HE’s SPEWING , .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqgtsai2aKY
Check out all the white kiddies in the front row, Ronaldo, they’re all Obama voters now!
Kirribilli Removals,
Again, people tend not to rationally weigh up such arguments. While many people will not be believing Republican foreign policy arguments any more, key demographics will certainly respond to fear of Iran. Whether that fear overcomes other factors – such as the economy – it is my contention that the issue is a winner for McCain. It will not make more people vote Democrat. It might – might – make more people vote Republican.
Jen @ 194 & KR [end of an era]
Either the Dems will deserve to lose – if they stuff up from here – or it will be proof that US voters will only vote Repug – either the GOP itself or when the Dems adopt the persona of the GOP.
At least Obama represents a potential change to the filthy quagmire of US reactionary conservatism. I can’t see the stage better set in decades for a vote for change. Obama will do his best to lead towards that. If somehow he fails, then it will be a pity, because the Repugs simply are worthless.
GG – [alarm that mobs are taking over the streets.]
Hahahaha. Did you see the photos of the Oregon crowd? That was a ‘mob taking over the streets’????
Come on.
They were so calm I don’t know how Obama got them excited enough to leave home. Compared even to the Sydney anti-Iraq war rally, it was a passive mass of sychronised observers on Mogadon.
I would also suggest that anyone suggesting that those inside Iran have a chance of getting rid of the mullahs within the next decade or so is dreaming. My girlfriend has many Iranian friends – mainly Ba’hai – and the situation inside Iran is not good for opponents of the regime. The only way that they can overthrow the mullahs is with violence, and without outside support that woud fail as things currently stand.
204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!
207
David Gould
It’s more fractious than ever in Iran today DG. These mad mullah regimes can’t rule a country in the 21st century and repress them like feudal times so easily. I’d argue that there’d be an even bigger pro-Western feeling if the US hadn’t camped (uninvited) right next door.
There might be a big pro-Western feeling. However, there is no viable pathway from that feeling to overthrowing the mullahs.
A thoughtful article by a Clinton critic on why she keeps going:
“In the end, no one begrudges a bitter-ender. Robert E. Lee is not vilified because he fought on too long, wasting lives and all of it, mind you, in the cause of slavery. In Israel, Masada is venerated because the zealots held out and killed themselves rather than surrender. Thermopylae is not considered a defeat but a lesson to us all: Never give up!
This is precisely what Hillary Clinton is doing. She is staying in the race because losing comes soon enough anyway and life teaches that anything can happen. Sure, she’s hurting the Democratic Party a bit and, sure, she’s inflicting some damage on Barack Obama. He will not only hear echoes of Clinton’s attacks out of the mouth of John McCain, but on the Internet and elsewhere they will be recycled so that Clinton herself will be the attacker. Nothing dies on YouTube.
But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/clinton_becomes_her_own_woman.html
Yeah good one, its not her stubborness, sense of entitlement or inability to accept the voters verdict. Great re-frame, good luck with that
All of the indicators are that the Repubs are on the nose, the current President dipped below 40% approval over a year ago and has just continued down to around 30% since then, the economy is in strife, the 2008 House and Senate elections could be a repeat of 2006 only worse for the GOP; and there’s every chance that the Dems’ campaign funds will be flush and the Repubs’ relatively skint.
So why are the current head-to-heads fiendishly close (by states; small but significant Dem lead in the national vote), and the bookies are calling it just roughly 60:40 to O at the moment?
It’s not because Obama is (on our current evidence) a bad or unelectable candidate. It’s because:
a) in an ‘outsider’ Repub who doesn’t always toe the party line, the GOP has the right candidate for the times; the question-mark is whether he can attract significant numbers of moderates and independents, while still dragging the fundamentalists out in the same force as they came out for Reagan and GWB.
b) the Repubs for a long time have done better in Presidential elections than they have in national representative elections. I’ll leave others to conclude why.
While HRC-supporters can point to states like Florida and Ohio (as red states to potentially pull over the line) to say ’she would have been more electable’, the fact is that on the current evidence HRC v McCain would also have been close. It would not have been a walkover. I wasn’t alive, and whether blacks should have equal rights was a divisive political issue, the last time the Dems had a genuine Presidential landslide victory.
Ferny 209
There’s no way she will run again in four years. If Obama loses the unloseable election there is going to be an awful lot of finger-pointing at Hillary (and Obama and in fact anyone involved in this debacle). Her best shot is to start grooming Chelsea in dodging sniper fire.
SimonH at 193, a good summary of the perils of the popular vote. Even if Hillary the work out some half-baked formula by she can win it, it’s a moot point. The number of delegates that counts (same reason to reject Gore’s popular vote argument), and if the SDs have NOT been swayed by Hillary’s popular vote or electability arguments.
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
I agree Diogenes, I think Hillary is too tainted/damaged now to run again. She will be blamed if Obama loses, particularly as she has given McCain the lines of attack to use.
If she had of not gotten nasty and have of withdrawn a few primaries ago, she may have had a chance
Diogenes,
Must completely disagree. If Obama is the candidate and the Dems lose, then all the finger pointing will be at Obama, Dean and the Party Grandees that allowed another unsuitable candidate to lose the unloseable election.
Like Howard after being dumped as leader emerging as the only viable leader after all the second raters had their turn, Hillary would emerge triumphant. The reason being that the Dems would (hopefully, finally) put their personal hatreds aside and focus on winning. But, it is the Democratic party.
David Gould @ 200 and 203: Completely agree with you on both points, or at least what I think are both your points:
1. Foreign policy is an area where voters will favour Repubs. Will hopefully be thus for a long time– I say ‘hopefully’ b/c I believe that the only way the US voters will favour the Dems on this issue is if a GOP President blows up half the world. Obama may be able to minimise the gap, but there is nothing he can do between now and November to change the fact.
2. However, Iraq has significantly neutered the electoral advantage that McC might expect from this issue. And Presidential elections generally aren’t decided on foreign policy issues at the best of times. The number of votes that McC will gain from his foreign policy platform (from people who weren’t rusted-on GOP voters anyway) will be minimal (if the issue is played properly), and highly unlikely to be enough to sway the result his way.
The tactical lesson? Apart from putting his policies up on his website, and defending them against anyone who attacks them, Obama shouldn’t make foreign policy a campaign issue. Keep the fight on your turf. It’s the economy, stupid. Sure, Iraq is on the nose, and you’re against Iraq, but once you emphasise the details of ‘exactly what are you going to do in Iraq if elected?’, you’re playing the enemy’s game.
JWH gave tens of millions of our dollars to the starving advertising industry and TV networks (WorkChoices advertising), in order to do what? Bring the fight more and more to where the enemy was strongest? Man, for a guy revered as the greatest street-fightin’ politician of a generation, that was a novice’s mistake. Let’s hope Obama is well-advised enough not to make the same one.
I gotta agree with GG on finger pointing.
If Obama loses, it will be on Obama and Dean.
I think Clinton will be seen as the wise old-timer saying ‘i told you so!’
A question for those who think she’s a-comin’ around again in 2012 if McC wins:
Would she have spent so much of her own money, and for that matter so much of her political capital, in this campaign if she believed she could say ‘ah well, put that one down to experience; see you in 4 years’? Everything she’s done since late March indicates that she views this as her one shot.
Presidential primaries are not really like JWH in 1995. No-one ever sits back and has party elders gather round humbly and opine, ‘We were wrong to ever abandon you; only you can lead us from the wilderness, oh great one (oh, and there’s no-one else left)’. You have to aggressively push yourself forward as the candidate in a field that is always crowded. And I doubt whether come 2012 HRC will be in a position to credibly do so.
“204
Enemy Combatant
A bit repetitive, the lyrics, I mean!”
That’s true, KR. Comes with the commentary……..of our little mate.
However he seems to be making an effort. In his first post for days, he managed full stops at the end of each paragraph, save his last. But regarding his comma spacing idiosyncracy, I’m afraid he’s too far gone. Of course as mature adults we are tolerant of this, but as a regular proof reader of the writing of others, one simply can’t immunise oneself from these minor literary speed-bumps.
*sigh*
Grinch – I agree with you. If the Dems lose this the blame will be levelled at Obama and Hillary will be seen as the dudded candidtae who would have won. However, let’s hope (well some of us anyway) that this isn’t the outcome, and Obama gives the GOP the trouncing they have earned.
And just in case the ‘popular vote’ argument fails, Hillary has a back-up formula:
“Speaking at a high school in Maysville, KY, Clinton supported that argument saying, “the states that I have won total 300 electoral votes. If we had the same rules as the Republicans, I would be the nominee right now. We have different rules so what we’ve got to figure out is who can win 270 electoral votes. My opponent has won states totaling 217 electoral votes. Now we both have some states that are going to be hard for us to win in the fall like Texas and Oklahoma. But I still have a cushion if you look at all the states that I’ve won and take out those that may not be in our column come the fall. My opponent has 217 electoral votes including places like Alaska and Idaho and Utah and Kansas and Nebraska. And many of his votes and his delegates come from caucus states which have a relatively low turnout.” ”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/clinton-this-is.html
If only the Dems were bloody Republicans Hillary would be the nominee by now!
218 GG
I agree that Obama and his selection would receive most of the flak but a lot of the party’s heavyweights have gone with him. That means they also own the decision and they’re going to be looking for someone to blame (other than themselves obviously and they can’t blame their candidate as they chose him).
There’s going to be an awful lot of cognitive dissonance if they lose.
1. I’m a full-time expert politician who is always right.
2. My party lost to a flip-flopping moron from a party that, in its own words “would be taken off the shelf if it was dog food”.
“Mistakes were made, but not by me” is the epithet of people in that situation. I reckon they’ll blame Hillary. Hopefully, we will never find out.
Heres the “new wedge” – drag in the wife & run it up the flag pole –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YmWEaqxkGtU&eurl=http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23728386-601,00.html
Opec’s president on Monday warned oil prices could hit $200 a barrel and there would be little the cartel could do to help.
The comments made by Chakib Khelil, Algeria’s energy minister, came as oil prices hit a historic peak close to $120 a barrel, putting further pressure on global economies.
Opec says oil could hit $200
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4200dc9e-1521-11dd-996c-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Don’t forget – Hillary will be 64 in ‘12 and 68 in ‘16 – and old women are looked on as worse than old men
Um, without wanting to sound a little weird….
Hillary doesn’t look to bad for someone who is apparently 60. If Obama loses, i can’t see age being a massive issue for her.
Especially given she would presumably be up against a man who (if alive) will be 76 at the time.
Superdelegate Roundup
Obama picks up 2 new super delegates: DNC Blake Johnson (AK); and DNC Cindy Spanyers (AK), bringing his overall advantage in delegates up to 203 while reducing the remaining superdelegate pool to 217.
Pledged Delegate Numbers
Obama: 1921
Clinton: 1718
Delegates Needed To Win
Obama: 104 (25.6% of the pool)
Clinton: 307 (75.6% of the pool)
but Catrina, Hillary’s won the populat vote, she’s more electable, she’s won more electoral college vote states, but, but, but
sorry the cold hard figures get you every time. thanks for supplying them with such accuracy and regularity
HarryH #172
Dio
“I don’t think you realise how good a 10 point loss result was for Obama in Penn”
10% is a 10% thrashing in a key state. Remarkable analysis for a foot soldier
Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries, such as
“the endorsement of Robert Byrd, the 90-year-old veteran senator form West Virginia, days after Hillary took the state. To say Byrd is a conservative Democrat is something of an understatement: the guy was a member of the Ku Klux Klan. Mind you he’s 90 and that was in 1942 – he was a Grand Cyclops apparently – and he has subsequently apologised profusely. Now he’s just your average bloke who stays at home on a weekend to do some chores and singe the lawn.” (Guy Rundle, Crikey)
DG – Iran
The Iranian weapons situations is analagous with what occurred with WMD & Iraq – its all about oil. I suggest you read Jeremy Scahill (2007) ‘Blackwater, The Rise of the World’s Most Powerful Mercenary Army’ – particularly chapter 11 which lays out the detail of the US project called Caspian Guard that involved regime change in Georgia (getting rid of Shevardnadze because he was to close to Russia); use of Blackwater personnel to build bases within Azerbaijan & Kazakhstan, and train their significantly increased arm forces (built up with US aid $). As a result the US now has bases in these countries on the borders of Iran and Russia!
All of the usual suspects, Unocal, ConcocoPhillips, Haliburton, BP are involved in the building of an oil pipeline that will skirt Russia and Iran.
“As Janes Defence Weekly reported, the U.S. presence near the Caspian allowed Washington to gain foothold in a region that is rich in oil and natural gas, and which also borders Iran. ‘Its good old US interests, it’s rather selfish’ said US Army Colonel Mike Anderson, Chief of Europe Plans & Policies Division. ‘Certainly we’ve chosen to help these two littoral states, but always underlying that is our own self interest.”
The US Govt are happy to ignore the fact that President Aliyev of Azerbaijan – won a highly suspect election to succeed his father, a former Soviet strongman. Azerbaijan human rights record is apalling, according to Human Rights Watch “Torture, police abuse and excessive use of force by security forces are widespread.” Now thanks to the Bush Administration this regime spends a billion dollars annually on its military.
All the while they rachet up the accusations against Iraq.
Diogene @ 226,
Or,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buSwRxvYPZI
Well observed, Grace. And I agree BHO is not going to lose in November unless he drops his daks during debates and brown-eyes the camera.
Don’t you mean “Iran” in your last sentence?
————–
Ferny, from your RCP link at 211:
“But in the end, when Obama is crowned king of the Democrats, Clinton will throw her arms around him and the music will swell and the crowds will cheer — and everything will be forgotten. And when that happens, Hillary Clinton — who will only be 65 in 2012 and four years after that still younger than McCain is now — will be positioned to run for president, not as someone’s wife, but as a gritty fighter who just would not quit.”
She’s living the cliche of the American Dream, all she wants now is a decent shot at “redemption”.
Just like Ayn Rand, doesn’t matter who gets sloughed off along the way, just as long as a gal can keep on keeping on. And of course an engine’s gotta do what an engine’s gotta do.
{The Little Engine that Could, also known as The Pony Engine, is a moralistic children’s story that appeared in the United States of America. The book is used to teach children the value of optimism. Some critics would contend that the book is a metaphor for the American dream.}
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Little_Engine_That_Could
Obi ain’t no engine, he know how to git down, people.
Da man KNOW how to git down!
EC 236
Thanks I did mean Iran in my last sentence.
Don’t know if this has already been mentioned here – but sometime yesterday Barak Obama was adopted into the Crow Nation with the name “Black Eagle’.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/19/obama-adopted-by-native-americans/
Grace #234
“Obama will win in November – he won support across political, racial and social boundaries”
Hillary has won the majority of white , hispanic & Asian votes representing 88% of Americans. obama has won 90%+ of his own ethnic vote plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
j/v Your polls on Iraq are irrelevant. Those Poll questions were the order of major issues , not the vote defining ones. In 2004 iraq was overwhelmingly unpopular in ‘oz’ but Howard. McCain is trusted more than either Dem on National security and any votes in foreign affairs McCain will win the most. I’m astonished anyone would suggest Iraq will be a problem for McCain unless it completely deteriorates. But Obama has a problem with how long withdrawal & what does he propose idealy to leave behind , given his absurd amateurish statement that if Al queda get back into Iraq , he’ll go in & get them out !
IRAN , numerous blogs on Iran being some sort of Bush red herring. Bush is correct to be concerned but is using the wrong policys to address it. Iran ARE enriching uranium that is a fact according to the UN AEC. why blogers here apply their dovish anti US attitudes to a scientific fact is remarkable. Whether Iran uses that quality uranium for nukes no one knows , but relying on the Mullahs good graces given their disrespect for human life with suicide bombers training only the FL dovish anti US intellegentsia are foolish enough not to advocate policys designed to prevent a nuke Iran. Ditto North Korea who have no oil. m/e oil continuity (but not Iran;s oil) is a main secondary priority but not the main game. As for Obama , what a rope a dope Philly oratory speech & the Mullahs will be sold.
Hillary has won plus most key POTUS deciding demographics Which figures are you working on
Thanks Catrina- amazing how a few lefties in this antipodean website are spreading our wings so far – even to Crow country.
WTF is going on here. Like my amigo Ron, you can’t be away for a few days. then you have bloody William Bowe raised the white flag “You people are lucky I don’t care anymore.” Why William?
1. So the bullies of PB can go on bullying.
2. So the sound of one hand clapping of the Obamabots here becomes the sound of boring, the bores and the boors.
3. So the conga line of sucking is getting longer, and longer and hardcore, exhibit: “Catrina, you’re now in charge of rounding up some more Supers” “Kirribilli Removals at 87 Yes sir, will do!”
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:
Michellegate in full blown. Dear Michelle, if you cannot stand the heat, dont effing go into the
kitchen in the first place. If you want to wear the pants and get involved in the campaign, dont go
whinging when attacked. Else, get out of the kitchen and let the real Lady handle the heat of the kitchen. As the Herr Doktor was saying, you should just shut-up.
The Irangate in full blown. Would Obama please repeat and re-state his new politics doctrine that “As POTUS, he will sit down and talk to the President of Iran, Syria, Cuba and venezuela, unconditionally”. Please show again some Profile of courage.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/greenwald/6961
This is an own goal and self-inflicted. he has no-one to blame but himself. It simply shows his inexperience and lack of political judgement.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/obamas_unique_appeasement_styl.html
yes, I agree with GG, and those who have agreed with GG, that if Obama loses in Nov, he will go down in history as the candidate who lost the Dems’ mandate from heaven to rule. In our despair, we will say in unison: “We told you so”.
Cheers, Grace, you might find the below link useful.
“His ( McCain’s) rhetoric about Iran—which inevitably will be a factor in any solution —has been belligerent. He calls it a “rogue state” and has spoken often of “rogue-state rollback,” deliberately invoking a word favored by the hardest-line cold warriors; he recently said he never meant by the phrase “that we should go around and declare war.” On the Middle East, he said in late April that “people should understand that I will be Hamas’s worst nightmare.”
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/21470
While maudlin hagiographers claim old soldiers never die, old warmongers are not content unless they continue to churn young men and women down Moloch’s gullet.
After all, what’s an MIC unless it can turn a buck!
. http://www.shout.net/~bigred/Moloch.jpg
Finns
You and i are both avid Fox News watchers. However only one of us actually believes the crud that they dribble.
I regularly have PB open and Fox on the tv. It is remarkable how often your posts pop up with Fox talking points just after they spew them up.
Long may you run, Bazza;
Long may you soar, Black Eagle.
HarryH, got news for you. I raised Michellegate last week and Irangate about 4 days ago. So You just keep on watching Faknews, it will do you good. It will at least keep your brain in balance.
GG
The dears can not detail what Obama’s “change , yes we can means”
Looks like none of those PAC’s and lobbyists , all out of work , gone are the ‘prork barrelling’ , no more special interest group pressure on legislation , andd of course new style politic means no Pollies doing arm twisting & secret Legislative deals , no more sex scandals , no more Pollie corruption headlines , a new beltway syndrome & gone will be all old Washington style negotiations done for generations …….
all achieved by “change, yes we can”..but how and by who and specifically what ?
fantasy world indeed , especially with Obama’s threat in front of a boardroom of credible executives of a major US corporation to nuke not only Iran…but also Pakistan , better then bomb bomb and then there’s the 25 million on the public register from PAC’s & lobbyists , the people Obama says he takes no money from.
FINNS
And we got HARRYH believing Fox News now
and ANDREW,k/r’s apprentice big noter with small echo , really reads all posts for wisdom to supplement a zero base whilst denying his reads
um ok Finns lol
Fox have been prattling about Michelle and Iran being the next “Obamagates” for about a week now…..about the time pastorgate ran out of gas.
Finns, your patterns have been uncanny.
It’s ok to admit you like the Fox guys. Don’t be embarrassed.
HarryH, for your thickness.
#747 – The Finnigans Says:
May 10th, 2008 at 6:32 pm
#736 Diog – [I don’t agree about the sexism vs racism though.] – dont speak too soon my friend. just wait when they turn on Michelle Obama. Boy, is she giving them the ammunitions. If Obama lost in Nov it will be because of the Pastor and his wife. How ironic, Hillary lost probably because of her husband, and Obama probably his wife.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=853&cp=8#comment-150871
Ron #239
It’s precisely because North Korea has no oil that the Bush Administration has been willing to negotiate with them.
It is a pity that they have not adopted the same approach with Iran. The rhetoric of the US, with the threats of bombing and building army bases on their borders is supporting the rhetoric of the Iranian President.
Surely, it is a better strategy to engage with Iran and avert armageddon.
As to the numbers re Obama – he has won primaries in States that are have populations comprising 88% and 67% “white” Americans, Eisenhower and Susan Nixon have endorsed him, as have Indigenous Americans and the quote I gave today about the Senator from West Virginia who is an ex KKK member. (the links are in previous blogs on this site)
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