Now ACNielsen comes through with a post-budget federal poll, its first since the election. Michelle Grattan details the results thus:
The poll of 1400, taken from Thursday to Saturday, found the budget had gone down well, with two-thirds “satisfied” and 57% thinking it “fair”. This is despite just 31% believing it will make them better off — about the same proportion (30%) who think it will leave them worse off. The Government seems to have chosen an acceptable cut-in point for new welfare means tests, with a majority agreeing those on the $150,000 household income were “wealthy”. Mr Rudd’s approval is 69%, making him the second most popular PM since 1972, only behind Bob Hawke, who was on 75% in late 1984. John Howard’s highest approval rating was 67% in early 2005. Dr Nelson’s approval is 34%, with his disapproval 48%. Kim Beazley, Simon Crean and Alexander Downer all hit lower points as opposition leaders. Labor has substantially improved its position since the election. It is up four points to lead the Coalition 57% to 43% on a two-party basis (remembering of course that ACNielsen also had the result at 57-43 in the last poll it conducted, immediately before the election – PB). Labor has a primary vote of 46%, three points higher than at the November election, to the Coalition’s 38%, four points down.
258 Comments
Interesting,that the 57% think it fair, as against the 30% who think they will be worse off.
I am all for Kevin PM deliberating and analysing, but reckon that the ‘fairer’ group would be larger if Kev had girded the loins and addressed those who need a little immediate largesse.
I know it is all very difficult, and that the budgeted Utilities Allowance is now $500, and that a zillion people have competing claims, across the board and with weirdly inequitable bases. The problem of course is that the previous Government was uninterested in base payment equity, merely dishing out money on a special interest basis for electoral advantage.
Hearing, yesterday by now, on Life Matters, an 80 year old saying that hers was the forgotten generation. Her life,a life she does well with, should shame us all. Sure, she manages, but that is all. No movies, no going anywhere. I even thought that Richard Aedy struggled to understand the real plight, empathetic as he is.
Kevin, I reckon, should have thought a little beyond the analysis, and dished out a few dollars more, as I have said. Maybe to those 70 and over, as a stop gap.
What a “sweet set of numbers”!
OK, so Brendan Nelson has a PPM rating of 17, according to Neilson
Its a shame there is no pre-budget Neilson to provide a comparison.
I guess we await the next Newspoll to see if Brendan picked up anything after the budget
The one age group still doggedly voting Liberal is the over 65s.
I suspect next year’s budget will contain a lot of sweetners to win them over, including an increase in the base old age pension rate.
Otherwise, good numbers for Rudd, and it belies the hostile line being pushed by the anti-Labor media, particularly commercial talkback radio and the Murdoch press.
4 Progressive
I’m not so sure that the ALP isn’t just giving the over 65’s away and putting resources where they might count.
I don’t know whether any amount of money can change totally rusted ons?
There’s another article on the poll here:
http://news.theage.com.au/national/rudd-hits-high-as-preferred-pm–polls-20080520-2g5h.html
which when read in comparison to yesterdays Newspoll and Galaxy results seems to come up with a different interpretation from what are similar numbers.
I can tell from the gasps that you’re all shocked and amazed.
Bearing in mind that this is taken before the confirmation of the embarrassing email, and a budget that necessarily made cuts to put the economy in shape for the future, I think this is an excellent result. Things should improve for Labor once the income tax cuts kick in which, though not talked about much, are substantial and have been delivered as promised.
It wouldn’t matter if Kev gave the pensioners an increase of $1000 pw they’d still be out there lying saying that he gave them nothing and that they were worse off. So great is their love for Rodent that like the OO they can’t get over his loss. If it was any other group telling these furfies they’d be brought to task. Saying they are worse off and getting nothing in the budget when they are $400 better off than what Rodent gave them make me angry and lessens my sympathy for them. Why weren’t they out on the streets after last year’s budget? Could it be because they were too busy falling over themselves to say how wonderful Rodent was to give them a $500 hand out?
Agreed Vera, the budget had extra compared to the last Costello budget, and where were all the pensioners during the 11 years of Howard???
As the most reliable voter base the Liberals have left, it is not surprising the OO gave the over-55s’ biased “complaints” more than ample column-space.
Would never have happened in rodent’s day.
I think we need to be a little careful categorising pensioers. There are two groups I have sympathy for:
- disabled pensioners, who have often subsisted on low incomes for many years
- aged pensioners, typically over 70-75, who retired before the modern emphasis on super and who paid their taxes through their working lives expecting the pension would be sufficient.
I have no problem with giving either of those groups more.
But yes, there is a third group of many now over 65 and on pensions who I have little sympathy for. These are the ones who have “double dipped” – received a large super payout meant to provide for them in retirement, have spent it, and still want the aged pension. The whole reason they got tax concessions for their super contributions was to avoid that happening. Many have recieved payout deals that will be denied later generations because they were simply too generous. I have no time for this group, who are mostly selfish and greatly overestimate the respect that they are held in. They are usually Howardistas.
The pensioners will be fine won’t they?
[Dolly accent] Aaaye meen to saay , if there was ever a real problem the Queen would come to their defence, wouldn’t she?
Well, at least they could vote the Liberals back in and give their extra $400 back. They voted for this mess over the last decade.
One wonders how the country got to this point at all, and whether or not the current pensioner age group ever looked up to see where it was going before.
I think that we need to take some of this polling with a grain of salt. We know that Labor polled amazingly well prior to the election, yet did not crack 53 per cent of the 2pp. I would take 2.5 per cent at least of the 2PP – maybe 3.5 per cent.
12 David
good point
it’s hard to know how much of the late slide was:
1. poor polling, both in the lead up and now
2. a cultural drift to conservatism when faced with an actual decision
3. a ‘real’ late surge and changing of minds (hundreds of thousands in the last week)
4. something else
or even a convoluted mix of all of the above. I suspect that if anyone really knows the real answer is held close to the cheast of the internal party pollsters and a select few in the leadership group.
Of course a real journalist might be slightly interested, or even write an article about it. In the interim we’ve got sham-a-porkies telling us black is white.
I sympathise with disability and single aged pensioners who do need help but it’s starting to piss me off this constant slagging off of Labor by these so called “Pensioner Groups”
I tend to think that a significant number of people people tend to claim that they are thinking of voting Labor but in reality never have any intention of doing so.
David, That was largely the result of a massive scare campaign from the government of the day. Many people wanted a change but in the end voted conservative as they were too scared. But enough people wanted a change and now things are very different. Labor is in power, have delivered on numerous promises and Rudd, Swan and Tanner have shown they are better economic managers that Howard and Costello; certainly more fiscally conservative which is exactly what Rudd promised. Next election, providing Labor don’t become embroiled in some scandal to end all scandals, Rudd and Co will blow the Libs off the political landscape. These TTP poll margins might be as good as it gets for the conservatives.
14 Vera
An article on this topic, which suggst the whinging is only going to get worse.
no one likes a whinger, and the comments to the article are broadly anti-debt-based-consumerism, a bit of a rarity in a news.com.au story:
Frugals show how to live the darn good life
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23728122-5007146,00.html
Steve K,
I think that you are being wildly optimistic. The largest 2PP margins that we know of that actually occurred in an election do not get much above a 55-45 split.
People tend to stick with what they know. That is why there is a core 40 per cent of voters who will never vote Labor, and a core 40 per cent of voters who will never vote Liberal. The 20 per cent in the middle never all drift one way. 15 per cent of them doing so is an overwhelming swing that is rare in the extreme. The polls must be systematically in error. And the only factor that I can think of that would induce such a systematic error across many pollsters is in the minds of the people: they say that they will vote Labor but are in fact lying (perhaps to themselves, but certainly to the pollster). This seems to have borne itself out in numerous elections now.
“People tend to stick to what they know” – which, at the next election, will be Labor.
As for the polls being systematically in error, they all stated an expectation that there would be a swing back to the Government as polling day got closer, largely on that very premise. On the day itself, the polls were pretty much spot on.
It is far more likely that the polls got it fairly right and that people changed their minds than that the polls were consistently wrong.
It is not lying to say you’re going to vote Labor and then change your mind; polls do not claim to do anything other than reflect what people are thinking at the time.
If the Libs do not sort themselves out before the next election, however, they will be seen as the risky proposition rather than Labor.
That’s certainly the old mindset David.
18 David
I agree that Steve might be a little optimistic, but your assumption that things have been a certain way for a while and will continue to be a certain way is also false. History is a bit bigger than the last couple of decades.
If the Liberals can act as they are at present, and maintain that 40% support, suggests that democracy will not take us forward as a society, and that regardless of what they do that their support is locked in. I’d contend that generational drift, at the very least, will result in change, one way or the other.
By numerous elections, do you mean state and federal?
From a contributor to Tim Dunlop’s blog:
“don’t worry about it abba, the honeymoon period usually produces a fair bit of up and down movement”
Screw the pensioners, they have lived their life now it’s time for us to live ours.
Maybe if they planned ahead and saved up enough for retirement instead of bludging the system we wouldn’t be in the mess we are today.
Being old is no excuse for being useless.
David, what I can gather from chats with pollsters public and private is that there were three basic groups that moved during the end of the last election campaign, giving us the mystical narrowing. The first group – relatively affluent, ordinarily solid Liberal voters that were leaning toward Labor blinked and came back to the coalition fold over the last two weeks of the campaign, low income, low education outer metro voters came back to the Coalition via the anti-union advertising campaign (and actually overshot by some estimates, they came back to the Coalition and then moved slightly back to Labor in the last 48 hours), and some parts of regional Australia moved back to the Coalition in the last 72 hours for reasons that I haven’t heard about.
That explains why the public pollsters all showed basically the same movement during the last few days, and why it tracked down to what the party polling (which is a bit more nuanced) was showing over the last week, leading to all the polls except ACN showing the same result at the end.
If I were the Libs, I’d be a bit worried about the polls. Long term governments all build new demographic coalitions early – and tend to keep them.
What happened with Rudd and the polls before the election had never happened before in recent Australian history at any level of politics. Since the election the polls are back up to their pre-election levels.
It would be a brave call to make the assumption that there are a group of people that will come back to the Coalition again, especially since the Coalition dont have the resources of government to facilitate it.
You only have to look at the States recently to see that 55/45 is far from unusual at elections, and can be higher.
If the Libs become as dysfunctional as the State Oppositions and Rudd actually becomes a more competent political leader than the State Premiers – I’d be surprised if the polls weren’t at least 55/45 come the next election.
The Libs need to get their act together.
A good after lunch belly laugh:
Federal Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson was like a diamond being forged under intense pressure, opposition health spokesman Joe Hockey says.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/diamond-under-pressure/2008/05/20/1211182764151.html
I see on Wiki that carbon requires pressure of between 45 and 60 kilobars to form into diamonds, where one kilobar equals about 1,000 atmospheres.
I think Brendon will probably be subject to about that level of pressure before he leaves, too.
I have only paid attention to federal polling.
Possum,
My suspicion is that those people were in fact lying to the pollsters (and probably themselves). I do not think that they ever really intended to vote for the Labor Party – particularly the relatively affluent group that you mention. For two elections, that group have threatened to vote Labor, and then not done so. I think that this needs to be systematically factored into the polling (somehow – I am not a polling expert in any shape or form, so I would have no idea how to do it. I just crudely subtract a few per cent from any poll that I read).
By the way, I fully expect the next election to be around 54 to 55 2PP to Labor. However, this means that I am automatically subtracting around 2 to 3 per cent off the current polling. I do not think that 57 is in any way realistic for Labor federally.
David, I agree that those wet, affluent Lib types have threatened to revolt for two elections now and squibbed both at the Federal level, yet what is interesting is that at the State level a large chunk of that same group threatened to vote Labor, and then actually did. Not once, but often twice or in the case of QLD, three times and counting.
Getting all hypothetical in terms of suggesting the worse case danger for the Libs unless they get their act together – If Rudd keeps what he’s got, and adds the 2 percent in the outer burbs that went to the Coalition via the anti-union campaign, there’s nearly 55 there. Those soppy wet, affluent Libs are another few percent.
Also if I were the Coalition, I’d be worried about the old One Nation vote in the regions – they’re big believers in building stuff with other peoples money. These guys see two hills and think “dam”! Those infrastructure funds must be a bit of a worry for the Libs in that context.
24 show off!!
When anyone suggest lying to the pollster on a mass scale the ‘conspiracy nut’ alarm goes off. You might be right about the factored movement, but I think your reasoning is wrong.
Possum gave a brief discussion of the demographic movements and why.
I made my suggestions without the knowledge possum has but with a little expertise (not polling related) on human behaviour and decision making.
I’d suggest that mass ‘lying’ is less likely than all of the above reasons.
David, mass mind changing, particularly toward a ‘conservative’ outcome [safe predictable, related to encumbancy] might be a better way of describing your ‘lying’ assertion. Voterland is not a beast that thinks per say.
Possum (24)
In the short term, the “Libs” will not be able to ‘get their act together’. They are demoralised and divided at the moment. That is not surprising. They were well beaten by their political opponents at the last Federal election and most voters (to the extent they are interested) still think Mr. Rudd is “Kevin from Queensland who’s here to help”.
If you are correct that the Liberal Party has ‘long term’ (and fatal) electoral problems, I would be interested to read your thoughts as to the demographics of the changed voter sentiments which are driving it and why you think it will be sustained in the long term.
David & Possum,
There is another group. Those who may have been impressed with Rudd but in the end remained loyal to their local incumbant and put Labor 2nd as a reward.
Incumbancy is a critical factor. Why else would Howard have tried to keep his existing team together.
When I say ‘lying’ I am not simply stating that they are not telling the truth. There is no conspiracy there – it is human nature to lie and it is even more human nature to lie to oneself. The facts indicate that many people tell pollsters that they intend to vote Labor but do not actually do so on polling day. Either they are all changing their minds in the interim or they never really had the intention to vote Labor in the first place. They may have thought that they did, but deep down – or maybe not so deep down – they were in truth Liberal voters. Humans are complex creatures. No conspiracies required.
And I agree that the libs should be worried. I cannot see them winning either of the next two elections.
30
I’ll let Possum post links to his postings on the topic but,
In it’s essence the Liberal party is about as ‘liberal’ as I am Martian. The LP support demographic lives in an inner city donut of the major cities that’s being squeezed from both sides. The NP support is country based that is being eroded due to urban drift. To top it off, the views of each of the demographics is diverging.
My own little comment is that ideology, as a political or commercial force, is dead. There is no simple answer to living. There is very little rationalisation to be had amongst the various issues, or if you like, government ministries. Life is complex.
Ideology used to be a reasonable sales tool, but it is now the clutch of the simpleton. Self interest far outweighs ideology in the younger generations and I can’t see that changing.
While the Liberals continue to believe that it’s ideology binding them, they will fail.
They need credible policy on issues that matter; policy that is inclusive, not divisive. That’s what the Rudd ‘me-too’ was all about. It will be the party that communicates a subtle positive change that will win future elections.
And just when dolly advised restraint and discipline in the party – can it get any worse?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/furious-downer-denies-plans-for-retirement/2008/05/20/1211182771317.html
Onimod @ 34. Thank you for sharing your thoughts. A very interesting observation about the younger generations. I gather you are referring to those who now vote. Any consideration of the longer term should also address whether (say) those now aged 5 to 16 years are likely to be similarly informed and guided by ’self interest’ outweighing ‘ideology’ when it comes to pass for that age group to vote in Australia’s compulsory preferential voting system. I have read the postings on Possums Pollytics.
35
I didn’t watch the former foriegn minister that bears a resemblance to Jabba the Hut on Lateline last night.
Was he using 3rd person and past tense to discuss the party?
What is it with Tony Jones and Alex-under – it’s like it’s his personal chat show or something.
Me thinks circulating amongst the irrelevant will undoubtedly lead to your own irrelevancy.
Observations made from 2 rural electorates during the 07 election which may be pertinent to the issue as to why some voters swung back to the Coalition in the last week.
Rural Press.
In the 2 electorates I operated in during the election Rural Press owns most of the dozen or so local newspapers.
All are solidly pro Coalition and in the last week in particular blatantly so.
The sitting members were actively pork barrelling all election, receiving lots of favourable publicity [eg interviews about the latest pork offering and front page treatment] for so doing but the alternate candidates were virtually invisible in the media.
And media includes local TV and radio. Incidentally the local ABC radio stations were definitely ‘muted’ in their approach, on ‘instructions from above’.
In the last week of the campaign the 2 local TV channels in one of the electorates had wall to wall Coalition ads, the whole range of ads but particularly anti-union ads and specific ads showing the local Lib candidate doing the region proud. Most ad breaks during the day, most of the evening were Coalition ads. Lots of money obviously available. The ALP had a handful of ads only and none in the print media at all. The other parties were invisible.
Now I don’t know how this correlates with the rest of rural Australia but I would suggest that Rural Press and locally run media had a prominent role in the rural vote change of the last week.
Incidentally the voters still swung to the ALP by 10% in each of those 2 electorates so go figger.
37 – even after 5 months I guess I’m still enjoying the lib’s implosion and the political suicide bombers of the once great, high and mighty coming out to play.
I didn’t see Lateline last night either, but the quote from Dolly
“If I could say one positive thing about the way Mr Rudd has conducted himself in the last year, the thing he did was he instilled into (the Labor party), after all those years in opposition, a degree of discipline which was very effective”
is hilarious, given his dummy spit at Minchin today.
Funnier tho is the line that “Nelson is being forged into a diamond” by the Shrek http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23729021-26103,00.html
These bunch of losers are unbelievable!!
Mr Charles at 30 (there’s more Davids in this thread than at a bar mitzvah)
There’s a few different problems the Libs are facing, some by circumstance, some by just poor timing of the electoral cycle.
The very long term hit that the Coalition will take in terms of the vote is that their strongest demographic of support is, well… dying.
The Coalition used to dominate the over 50 vote, then it became the over 55 vote, then the over 60 vote, now its approaching the over 70 vote in terms of dominance. Another 10 years and most of that vote will become older than the average lifespan. So that demographic that they dominate is not only becoming older, but consequently smaller by attrition.
Also problematic for the Libs but particularly the Nats is that it’s the oldies that make up the majority of their branch membership.
To give an idea of size of this problem, if we use the census data to look at the number of Australians of voting age, its a tad over 15 million.
The proportion of the voting age population that is 50+ is 40.8%
The proportion of the voting age population that is 55+ is 32.1%
The proportion of the voting age population that is 60+ is 23.9%
The proportion of the voting age population that is 70+ is 12.5%
So the Libs are losing a large chunk of their base vote but without having it replaced by any younger demographic. But if they chase the younger demographic – how do you reconcile the vastly different social values of the young demographics with the social conservatism of their elderly demographic? It’s hard – so hard Labor doesn’t even try and bother with most of the oldies using the values spiel because it simply ain’t worth the trade-off for them.
The slow, almost grinding reduction in that demographic is, in itself, reason enough to keep the Coalition out of power for a long time barring some ALP meltdown.
The ALP has also slowly been increasing its voter base in the high income demographics as wealth flows to far greater numbers of ordinary wage earners, contractors and professionals outside of the areas of law, medicine and engineering (professions that historically at least supported the Libs more than the ALP) rather than business owners and employers that used to dominate this group. So the anti-union spiel (the great historical underpinning of the anti-labour forces) doesn’t resonate as much in the affluent vote as it once did.
You can see the way these demographic forces are playing out in the Liberal party organisation, reducing the numbers of the old ordinary Liberal party values and beliefs, leaving the far right nutters and assorted political carpet-baggers running large parts of the party.
But what those nutters believe is good for the country is considered to be, well, fringe dwelling nuttery as far as the majority of the Australian population is concerned. That puts an effective straight jacket on the Liberal party in terms of what they can propose as a policy platform without the party erupting internally.
The Labor party, because of its well resourced student politics divisions and because its a funnel for the large left wing political activism that goes on when young people start mixing idealism with delusions of changing the world, allows the ALP to not only effectively harness most of the new political talent that pops up, but also keeps it anchored to some extent in what younger people are thinking, and what their concerns are.
So the ALP has better vote anchoring to young demographics and consistently outpolls the Libs here, the Libs are losing their most solid demographic through attrition, the Libs can no longer rely on old notions of Capital vs Labour for support because those notions are becoming increasingly irrelevant as time goes on and it no longer adequately describes peoples life experiences or self-interest.
And then we get to what’s left of the Coalition with the problem of its twin support bases – where the regional and rural voters have greater differences with their more affluent coalition metro counterparts than they have issues in common (they’re different economies, different life experiences, different social and cultural values etc).
It’s a nasty convergence of very bad things for the Coalition. They simply cant afford to play it like parties of old played it when they lost government. They can’t afford to lose large chunks of their vote while they play pin the vendetta on the faction, because these days, as the State government experience has shown in recent years, once those voter chunks are lost – there’s simply no guarantee that they’ll come back. The people that used to do that are becoming smaller in number every year.
But they are believable. To their constituency. Which will believe anything.
As someone in charge of a campaign in a rural electorate, fred, I can verify what you say.
The local paper ran a three page spread on the Liberal sitting member the Saturday before the election. When we questioned them as to why there was nothing similar available to the Labor candidate, we were told that it was purely coincidental that the spread had been in the paper during the election campaign – it was simply to mark the fact that the sitting member had just clocked up three years in office!!
The local ABC would ring our candidate and tell them that the interview would be on X. There would then be one question on X and then the interviewer would shift to a totally different topic for the rest of the interview. Often, it was obvious that the Libs knew exactly what was going to be discussed and had callers lined up to quiz our candidate.
A number of times we were told (off the record, by friendly journos) that one of our media releases was to be a front page story, to then find it relegated to page 10 and distorted beyond all recognition.
Basic fairness also went out the window, with our candidate denied the right of reply to some fairly nasty attacks on several occasions (a change from previous elections).
Still got a huge swing (especially given that we were outspent 100 to 1) but obviously would have done a lot better if the media had been even halfway balanced.
And as Judge Growler said – incumbency is powerful
Especially the sophomore effect where those newly elected members get a few percent bounce in their next election. The danger here for the Coalition is that the seats Rudd won at the last election should become safer at the next election. But any new seats he wins at the next election should become safer at the election following that – which means three to four terms by itself if the usual effects of incumbency run true.
yes DG there was a move back to the government in the days prior to an election, so you need to ADD 2.5 to Labor!! Good luck with your Shanahan spin
Has Gary Morgan lost it? Take a look at the latest poll.
http://www.roymorgan.com/
heh! Morgan goes retro – its 1997 all over again.
I’m off to watch Melrose Place!
It has struck me that there is quite a difference in the government and opposition sides of the parliament and that is the preponderence of opposition members who could be seen as “up themselves” as compared to those on the government side. The names Nelson, Costello, Downer, Bishop (twice), Tuckey, Hartsuyker spring to mind.
Labor seems to have held hubris in reasonable check.
On pensioners – got a phone call from my mother (mid 80s) after she saw the Melbourne wrinklies getting their gear off last week, and she was absolutely ropable. I’m amazed Telstra’s microwave towers across the Nullarbor didn’t melt.
When Dad retired 25 years ago he got a ‘princely’ sum of $5,000 in super after a lifetime of hard toil. Mum worked just as hard but women were even less likely to have access to super than men. By being careful Mum’s built that up over the years. ‘Careful’ doesn’t mean tight fisted, they had a good time, she still does and doesn’t lack for much.
So she’s happy with what she’s getting and while grateful for the increase in utilities allowance could get by without.
She’d much rather more money went into hospital waiting lists than aged pensions because she’s paying nearly a grand to have a self-funded cataract operation in a few weeks instead of waiting 12-15 months to have it done as a public patient and will fork out another grand in a few months for the other eye. Her eyes aren’t that bad, but as she says, at her age waiting lists often end up being life sentences, and anyway, it’s the kid’s inheritance she’s blowing, not hers!
IMO, much of the pensioner angst is being driven by the media. Many pensioners have only a tenuous grasp of what was in the Budget and I suspect much of their anger is based more on how badly done by they were according to the media than a significant reduction in their living standards in the last 6 months, even allowing that prices on a lot of necessities have risen lately.
The pensioner protest in Melbourne was revealed for what it was worth by others here at PB. Not only did radio 3AW (through Neil Mitchell) rally the troops repeatedly on air they even sent one of their ‘personalities’ John M Howsen to the rally to provide encourgement. Honestly, most of the pensioners I saw on the TV news were pretty well-to-do compared to the truely frail and ill. They should find something useful to do with their idle time possibly looking after those who are really struggling. Has anyone explained yet how the family first MP was in attendance? Was he in fact the organiser?
Labor Voter
“Screw the pensioners, they have lived their life now it’s time for us to live ours.”
Oh dear what a sad comment. You must be young and stupid, I hope your life works out as you have it planned. Tosser.
Possum: Is Heather Locklear still Guest Starring?
The pensioner who went topless got onto AW the next day said to Mitchell in his angriest voice that he was out to get Swan. “We’re coming to get ya Wayne”. “You’ll be out next election.” I don’t know about anybody else listening to this but he lost me with that attitude. It came across as a political exercise rather than a cause.
48
I think you’re right Mayo.
Again, it’s only annecdotal, but the closest pensioner relative I’ve got voted red and is heading further that way.
I think there’s actually a demographic shift toward supporting the social issues in this bracket too – the grand kids become pretty important at that age and the LNP short-sightedness has, and will continue, to gain recognition.
42
I’m ion a rural electorate, though I live in a town. the town voted as-red-as, but was swamped by the landholders.
I don’t see more landholders coming, but the town is growing.
If the pensioners had been chasing Howard up every alley I would be more sympathetic. I just can’t help thinking there is a touch of “let’s get Rudd” about it.
54
I think you might find it’s pretty similar to the demographic of those who still buy papers?
Taking the emotion out of it; would it be any different economically if it was the long term unemployed who were protesting in the streets for more unemployment benefits? And what would the editorial tone of the papers be then?
The idea of welfare as a safety net seems to have been lost by right.
I totally agree, I seem to recall that the Pensioners were “Very Grateful” to Mr Howard for “thinking of them” when the last lot of bonuses were given out.
The Kerry Anne Kennerley demographic have a lot to answer for.
THey’d demonise them as “Dole Bludgers”, and the same pensioners would be ringing Neil Mitchell, Howard Sattler & Allan Jones telling them to “Get A Job”.
Hypocrites.
It will be well worth having a peek at Turnbull’s National Press Club address tomorrow. It’s his chance to shine when he presents his take on the budget. I wonder how convincing he will be re the 5c a litre petrol policy of his party.
That should read “5c a litre off”.
Sky Nooz has been giving Turnbull heaps all day – they want to see if he can keep a straight face during the Q&A at the Press Club tomorrow.
We have had a few leaks from Turnbull – his Kyoto thing etc. this is just the latest. Publicly Nelson is saying he does not want to know where the leak came from – I but he is fuming. (Or maybe it was his office that leaked it)
onimod #17
thanks for the article on Frugals, bloomin’ heck they sound just like me! But I’m not 80 yet I’m still a young 53! I pay cash, no credit card, meat & 3 veg yes, grey nomad no, don’t darn my socks or patch my clothes but the rest fits me to a T!
I think the Tampa kept many pensioners happy under Howard; even if they were half-starving at the time. life’s funny like that.
Why would Turnbull actually want the gig at the moment? He might want Nelson out of the way so as to avoid “damage to the brand”. But if he became the leader and didn’t create the bounce that a saviour should, questions would quickly be asked about his leadership.
He would be better off having Nelson done in, but have someone else (Hockey, Abbott or Bishop) become leader, and let them fail too. Then the party will be begging him take over the job after the next election or even sooner.
I reckon he might have leaked so to do damage to both himself and Nelson, so he is not seen as the only leadership candidate.
Has anyone heard any gossip around how AC Neislson is dealing with winning the prize for the most innacurate election eve poll in 2007?
At the national level they have released nothing of importance since their appalling polling result…that’s six months of silence…
No analysis of how they got it so wrong?
Or are they just hoping time has healed all wounds
Possum’s take on what’s happening has been interesting to think about. Particularly given how many of us have whinged about how the MSM have spun and misrepresented for the Opposition, despite that, the Rudd gov’t. got elected; that it still rates so well in the polls, whether or not that would translate into votes, suggests something has shifted in the electorate and that the electorate itself is changing by demographic change.
The pensioner plus FF Senator (who now will do anything to be re-elected?) always looked to me to be a cooked up number. The people who we really need to be looking after aren’t going to be able to organize such a thing. Rubbish tabloid MSM stuff, both telly and print.
Something I’ve been on about for more years than I care to name is accommodation for people who are homeless by virtue of having a mental illness and usually a co-morbid substance or other disorder. We need to provide accommodation for them and build in the services they need. It’s cost effective and stops some 75% of people relapsing. We’ve started to do it in a small way in Victoria, but it needs to be nation wide. These are people who need championing, and DSPers.
Mr Squiggle – ACN would have seriously, seriously, seriously (did I mention seriously?) looked at why and how their population distributions that define their weightings were wrong.
If they’re back polling on politics, which is the most scrutinised of their market research, they’d have figured it out. They probably figured it out a while ago – if you were in their shoes and fixed it up a few months back, wouldnt you wait for the budget to splash back into the media?
B. S. Fairman, I’m not sure that anything terribly rational is going on in the LNP as a group, or as individuals, at the moment. Malcolm seems to think he has the superior economic understanding and Nelson is a dolt. A case all too easy to make. Turnbull, OTOH, seems to have alienated a significant number of potential supporters, and then there is the problem of who they actually represent, and therefore, what policies are going to have some appeal, which brings us back to the analysis that Possum is putting forward.
If Turnbull got the leadership in the next month or two, I think he’d be able to hold onto it for at least 12-18 months, and survive quite a few gaffes, if only for the reason that the Coalition would be reluctant to change again so quickly.
THR, but there is still the basic problem that they are trying to hold together…sand?
66 Possum
I’m interested to know more about how the doctors voted in the Federal Election. I never meet GPs but of specialists that I know (only 50 or so MOE huge) I think a little more than 50% would have voted Labor. The “doctor’s wives” were about the same. Lots of them voted Howie in the past. GPs tend to be more conservative as they are really small businessmen as well as doctors.
And an awful lot of both GPs and specialists have voted State Labor recently.
Diogenes, I have a fair amount of exposure to both GPs and specialists, and a fair idea that neither polling or actual election results would tell you what you’re asking. You’re quite right that many GPs operate as small businesses, but many are now employed in franchises owned by, in many cases, overseas companies. It suits them as they can choose to work the hours they want. Specialists, I think would differentiate differently, partly according to specialty, and partly according to motivation to do the speciality
Regarding ACN, isn’t it entirely reasonable to suggest that AC Nielsen picked up a rogue poll as its last poll in 2007?
After all, Newspoll had a rogue poll in the early part of the campaign last year (the 58/42 after the first week) – so was it just bad luck (as opposed to bad methodology) for AC Nielsen last year?
Swing Lowe – it could have, except that it picked up two.
ACN ran two separate polls as their final polls – one was an online poll from their registered online community and the other a standard telephone poll. Both had samples well over 1000 and both produced identical results, both were identically wrong. If it was just one of their polls it could easily be put down as one of those 1 in 20 rogue poll problems – but with two it’s like a 1 in 400 problem which is pretty remote.
Pollsters often have to update their population distribution weights, all of them do it regularly. ACN was just in the unenviable position of having to do it after they election results showed them up.
Morgan suffered the same thing a few years before.
Harry @ 71
I’m sure you are right.
It may interest you to know that the same thing that happened to GPs is now happening to specialists. There is a listed company of ophthalmologists (called Optics or something like that) which controls about 60% of eye specialists on the East Coast. There is an orthopaedic one running now. We’re all being corporatised. I don’t think it’s a good thing for the public as it creates health monopolies and could fix prices. Nicola Roxon doesn’t seem perturbed.
Thanks, Possum.
I’d just like to add something that probably has been noted before (but I’ll repeat it anyway).
Isn’t it amazing that two polls that produce exactly the same headline figures (57/43 TPP) can lead to such divergent strains of media coverage (compare The Oz v Fairfax publications today)?
Whilst the positive news coverage for the Coalition in The Oz may be considered “good” news for them, they face the problem that the negative news coverage for them in the Fairfax publications (SMH and The Age) is read by 8x as many people as those who read The Oz! The poor buggers can’t take a trick!!!
fred @ 38
Is there a reason you don’t name those electorates? Would be interesting to know which ones they were. Have to say in some rural electorates like parkes and Calare i wish the ALP had done worse
zoom @ 42
Same question
Sheesh! Slapped around for the last hour by my sister in law, divorced from brother, about Labor. Salary sacrifice no longer, she says, for a computer. Rort, says I. Education Allowance, if I have this right, is of no help to her inasmuch it will, she claims, not go towards school fees. Parameters to be determined, says I. Other stuff, but my head is hurting.
Sounds like she is complaining, as a supporting parent earning the least money, which she does, is least likely to be able to afford a computer, which she already has, though, courtesy my loan to her, not about me, but this is how it goes (singles contributing, Vera) and whatever else she is talking of, cannot access due to low income and expending already her available monies on the child, music, scouts, you name it. All good, but.
Can anyone help me?
‘Rudd’s Mandarin ‘a boon for Aussie business’
‘PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s ability to speak Chinese is opening up trade opportunities for Australian businesses, a survey shows.’
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23730887-2,00.html
Libs might lose their majority of the business vote too if they don’t keep an eye (and ear) on Kev.
77
Crikey Whitey
“Can anyone help me?”
CW, I was able to salary sac a laptop 2 years ago. Seemed crazy at the time as it was for home use with nothing at all to do with my job. Over the last 6 months my employer was preparing to allow us to salary sac our lunches! Yes, we were about receive the opportunity to pay pre tax $s for hot chips, sandwiches, 3 course meals etc. When this was first mentioned I said “If I were Wayne Swan I’d close this rort straight away.” Well, he’s done just that and I applaude the new government. Just imagine well paid workers getting a tax break for food whilst so many needy people go hungry. Disgraceful.
Tell your sister in law that you know this guy Steve K who not only has lost the right to salary sac a laptop but now he can’t even salary sac a case of soft drink. Tell her Steve K is spittin’ post tax chips. Then tell her to shut the f%$k up as there are more needy people in the commumity than her – people like poor old Steve K.
The more funny thing on that page was the line:
Turnbull puts rivals in a state
“MALCOLM Turnbull is reportedly encouraging Liberal leadership rivals to leave and join state politics.” and a link to a story that doesnt expand on it.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23727877-2,00.html
Polling accuracy (before last Nov), as confirmed (or not) by the election, must also include adjustment for whatshisname’s Marcos-like electoral act changes in his last term. I think Peter Brent put the figure at around .7% (could be wrong here) as the loss in 2PP to Labor of these disenfranchised Aussies.
This forgotten fact would account for some of the apparent drop in support on election day. Factor this in (AEC with Labor officially on 52.7%) and it puts Nielsen just a tad closer and Newspoll/Galaxy having overshot the other way.
Morgan had election eve poll with Labor on 53.5 2PP!!!
THR,
If Turnbull got the Liberal leadership, the first thing on the agenda for the Government would be “The Republic”.
Would that split the Libs or what!
Scotty
“fred @ 38
Is there a reason you don’t name those electorates?”
Yes.
Grazie, Steve K. I am attempting to relieve my angst by indulging in the beautiful crap dished out and to by Gordon Ramsay.
This salary sacrifice bizzo, as I understand it, can (or could) actually allow people to be on some kind of pension whilst they are earning a huge salary.
Now, this is not about the sister in law, but. She is on a small salary, works three days at the ATO, governs her earnings by whatever she can get via Family Tax Benefits etc, knows that increasing her working days will result in loss of real income and increased costs for the child, after school hours care and so on. Not to mention time away from the child.
Given the food sac you mention. I had heard of this before….appalled. What next? Salary sacrifice for Alcopops? Not that she drinks very much at all.
Though I wish she would, might help her to relax. And me. I will mention your plight in dispatches, Steve K.
But does she have a point, about the Education Allowance?
78
Vera Says:
‘Rudd’s Mandarin ‘a boon for Aussie business’
‘PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd’s ability to speak Chinese is opening up trade opportunities for Australian businesses, a survey shows.’
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23730887-2,00.html
I am friends with a part-Chinese businessman with ties into the mainland Chinese business community, and he says that Rudd’s Mandarin skills and general knowledge of and interest in China is going down very well in the Chinese community, both here and in China itself, and is generating a lot of respect and interest from them.
If the liberals want to improve their standing in the polls, maybe they could recruit Mark Latham.
The liberals have noone else. He might be a bit loony but he is more competent than Brenda and more experienced than that novice Turnbull. He hates Rudd with a passion. He would end all the in fighting because the party would be sh*tting itself to cross him. And most importantly of all, the MSM (now being a liberal) could accept him as their own.
Imagine the positive headlines – ” Latham to ease the squeeze on working families “.
)
Scotty, yep, same reason I blog under a pseudonym (and I bet you really thought zoom was my name).
Education Allowance – can’t be used for private school fees, goes to excursions, school charges, textbooks, etc. It is designed so that students don’t miss out on these extras just cause they’re from a poor family. If your sister in law is poor enough to receive the EA and is sending her children to a private school, she is VERY aspirational. Tell her to save the dosh and send them to the local public, they’ll get just as good an education.
Thanks Possum for your insight…
I went into the 2007 election period believing AC Neilson had the most credibility of the local pollsters…
…and was stunned by their election eve polling…
I for one would like to know what they have told their major customers about thier election eve result (eg The Age in Melbourne) …Was it just a rougue poll….
I notice that there has been no other post election period where neilson had such a large period of “down time” where they released no polling data…..
what were they doing during the last six months…are there any polls they have chosen to not release?
what adjustments to their sampling technique have they made…if none, what went wrong last time???
If they expect me to have faith in their figures released today, they have another thing coming
Thanks again Possum
What is really stupendous, Centre, and you did not say but maybe unsaid is thinking that Mark Latham may be capable of ‘crossing’ to the other side. It has happened, as we know.
Such an event may end this farcical thing the Liberals have, at this moment, ‘The Leadership Group.’ What idiocy! On the one hand, having Howard as the one and only was dopey in the extreme, but to then resort to a ‘group of leaders’ is equally unworkable.
Take only Nick Minchin’s announcement of Alexander’s imminent retirement. Not announced by Brendan. Renounced by Alexander.
Mark Latham would break an arm if someone did that to him.
Diogenes, you bet you’re patooties on that. The overwhelming thrust of the Howard era was to put money into the private sector, What, I think, finally got up the nose of Rudd, who does not object to the private sector going some service delivery, was the blatant crispy skinned pork that goes to various people in the health sector. In my view, needs as much of a root and branch clean out as tax and welfare.
Crikey
Once upon a time there was a stark divide in our society.
There were individuals who would accept welfare, and there were those who under no circumstances would accept welfare lest it should tarnish their family name, and brand them as unsuccessful and unworthy.
Somewhere along the line things have changed.
These days success is measured by what you can scam out of whomever, for the least amount of work. Bugger the idea that you couldn’t sleep straight in bed at night because you felt guilty for not having done a hard days work.
Along came the baby-boomers, when life became a journey of expenditure, and if you didn’t have enough, well, it was up to the government to provide you with your ‘fair share’.
Ask her if the education allowance is going to save the planet. If you don’t get the right reply then give up, because you’ve got a real live baby-boomer, who would buy extinction of the human race if it was on sale, or had definite ‘growth’ prospects.
zoom at 87
No, zoom, the child goes to a public school. The rave is about public/private in secondary, still a couple of years away. I prefer that the child go to the best locally available public, rather than envisage the fierce costs the sister in law would have to deal with. Which in fact she cannot. She contemplates scholarship to a private school, but apparently even this is financially formidable, as it seems one is charged a rather large amount to even sit a scholarship exam, these days, I guess.
The Education Allowance, thanks for your elucidation. I will discuss with her.
Yep, Onimod.
Between writing, I thought, God Almighty, if there were not all these bits and pieces and invitations to working out best advantage, we might get back to gee, the good old days, when my parents, and his twelve children, locally born, nothing intimated here by the way, received child endowment and this and that. I distinctly remember Dad doing the tax return, claiming whatever was allowable in terms of education costs and whatever, that some of we children went to public schools, some others at various stages, private schools.
Mum and Dad still made the choice, about their aspirations for their kids, balance between what was best and what was affordable, and stuff the Church if it came down to the kids getting a non religious school education. Not that they always chose well, but they chose. They somehow paid. We didn’t go on excursions, we went swimming. For nothing, at the beach. We played tennis, for little cost, at the local square.
Why does everything need to be so expensive? What is wrong with local? I think these aspirations are far more aspirational than need be.
Geez, Onimod, I think you’re being a bit over the top generalisation type response here. I’m nearly sixty, spent most of my life as a single parent, so I was there for my kids, no superannuation till Keating’s reforms, have not a lot in super which has got hammered due to sub-prime crisis. We might make choices like I did that it was more important to spend time with our kids. I personally don’t have any regrets or whinge about the lack of gov’t support, though throughout my life, I’ve had one, (commonwealth scholarship to do Uni. worth $24 a week plus tuition fees (that’s now called a free Uni education) and that’s O.K. because I can look after myself mostly. So, though being a beastly “baby boomer”, I suspect a lot of what is dished up in the MSM about the different generations and their characteristics, has about as much validity as a melting icecream.
I doubt Nelson, Turnbull, Bishop or Hockey will get within a bull’s roar of leading the LNP to government. Lightweights the lot of them.
But I note Costello is still sitting up the back confounding predictions he was off to become the next corporate high flyer. I’m still tipping that he’s just biding his time waiting for the most opportune time to come to the party’s rescue. IMO, it’s no coincidence that the latest Nelson-Turnbull email tiff was leaked via Cossie’s mate!
Harey?
Crikey
I think people can aspire all they like – the cream still rises to the top IMO, regardless of the opportunity afforded to those who belong in the sludge at the bottom.
Character comes from adversity.
Here’s one of my favourites from Kennedy, Rice University speech:
“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things,
not because they are easy, but because they are hard…”
Somewhere along the line we’ve forgotten to teach ourselves to seek the challenge, and we are poorer for it.
Crikey Whitey – hold horses, I might be getting my EAs mixed up – hate you to get trampled by your sister in law because I misunderstood something. Will get back to you after further research!!
Quite, onimod! I thought of my eldest brother, in my musings, who is now 67, recently made permanent in his personally rewarding and rather well paid position, in an aid organisation, contracts for Federal dollars in assisting the education of Iraqis in civics, who left school at 15, as that was the deal, went to night school to get his accountancy degree.
Suffered, as do we mostly, under the hands over time, within the Public Service.
Well, fine now. As an individual, as respected, as doing a terrific job for those he serves.
Harry
c’mon mate – I’m talking demographically!!!
There are always exceptions, and in fact, it’s the exceptions from the patterns that usually set the definition.
A lot of what’s in the MSM are generalsiations of what is in fact extremely detailed detailed data and interpretation of the generations. It’s extremely powerful stuff. One of the most intelligent people I’ve ever met was a specialist in the field.
I am generalising above, but it’s also generally true. My interest is in the behavioural end of the demography, and in that aspect your reply made me laugh – your generation has a reasonably high penchant for deferring responsibility and claiming ‘it’s not my fault’…
It’s about patterns of groups, not particular people.
Just musing….
I thought it was quite sensible, having lost the election, that many former Lib ministers moved to the back benches.
The best way to rebuild, after all, is to get rid of anyone who reminds the voting populace of the old guard. If you can still have them hanging around as a source of advice, then that’s good too.
BUT the only way it’s going to work is if they then have the discipline to BE backbenchers and avoid the limelight.
Instead, we have young Alex popping up on ‘Lateline’ when any sensible program would throw to an ad and Costello calling pressers and then accusing the media of hounding him.
So I wonder where the original sensible advice came from and why the rest of it wasn’t followed?
Or was I being too generous to begin with, and they went to the backbench to punish us all for voting them out, rather than for the long term good of the party?
101 zoom
The ’source of advice’ left some 12 months before the election – Arthur Sinodinos. Other than him and Johnnie-no-good, no one has had any experience making big decisions for over a decade.
One guy on the back bench has plenty of experience NOT making a decision.
A couple of others have plenty of recent experience with WRONG decisions.
In reality we’ve got a bunch of newbies, and unfortunately there are no accomplished oldies to teach them the right way to do things.
A nice little article from the past for general amusement that illustrated the difference between the former and current ‘top dogs’:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Opinion/A-poisonous-affair-for-all-players/2005/05/06/1115092684631.html
Heh, heh. Alexander just now, on radio. Consulting with his family (and friends, probably not Minchin) about his intentions. For as long as my family wants me?
The curiously long winded headline in today’s OZ under Shanahan’s by line is “Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull Bury The Hatchet”.
Who was the other poor bastard vying for the Liberal leadership? The double whammy to the skull must have been painfull.
Crikey Whitey before have I with you raised this thought . Related be not you to Jabba the Hutt?
Though comely more of eye and of body lithe I doubt not, syntax Hutt you have.
Ashamed be not of the family Hutt.
You sure have, Fulvio. Just before I go to bed.
Now,about this sin tax. What about taking a sentence or paragraph or anything I have typed, correcting it and marks out of ten? If you would be so kind. I challenge you.
And try not to be jealous. You may find that you are within the Hutt.
You have twenty four hours.
Hey Crikey, didn’t mean to offend with my repeated syntax joke, and I thought it would be taken in the spirit of good humour, in which I was sure you did in fact take it, although William, as is his right, thought otherwise.
Apologies to you William and to you Crikey. The last thing I want to do is upset people I usually wholheartedly agree with. There are too many of those I don’t out there!
Possum Comitatus Says:
May 20th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
Actually it’s any gully with a river running into it.
In Victoria we have the north south pipeline being built to take water from the snowy system ( built by a labor government) and we have desalination plants being put in, these consume power instead of generating it. And those of us that see gullies as dams asking why don’t they just dam a few more rivers ( my answer is, it’s too late now, you have to dam them before the drought).
Another dam, desalination plants, another carbon generating power station. The anti dam crowd have a lot of environmental destruction to answer for.
Sorry that should read, another pipeline.
Charles, the north south pipeline doesn’t take water from the Snowy System.
The desalination plant is intended to do what no dam can do – provide water when there is no rain.
If extra dams had been built they would look exactly the same as all the other dams now – that is, close to empty. More dams may have delayed the imposition of water restrictions but even that’s debatable.
As for environmental destruction – what are you talking about? You seem to think the Snowy scheme was good, which involves a hundred times the number of pipes we’re talking about with the n-s scheme (and anyway the pipe will largely run through farm land) and desalination plants (which I was anti until I did my research) appear to have little impact environmentally.
Dams, on the other hand, permanently alter the water flows of rivers, obstruct fish movement, alter water temperatures and flood large areas of land. There is some evidence locally that they impact on the local climate (we have more fogs and less frosts since the dam was put in forty years ago, and it’s not a big body of water).
Onimod 101
You are so right. When I worked in Canberra EVERYTHING went through the PMC office, even project level decisions ove ra certain amount of $, not just major policy. (And I am talking amount sin the millions, not billions.) The horrifically onerous contracts they make you sign precludes me from being more specific, but suffice to say that many Howard Ministers were little more than figureheads. Their job was to write the press releases and shake hands with the locals after the deal was done, while all the decisions got made in PMC. Line departments could recommend policies, but only PMC, Treasury and Finance had any real decision making power. In my experience that power was split about 60/30/10 in favour of PMC. If PMC were against something, it had zero chance of getting up.
The doctors union desperately trying to protect the wealth of their symbiotic partners, private medical insurance companies.
Seems like it is the most favoured tactic now – get a report made up whilst first setting the paramaters to give the result you want. A lot of it went on before the election.
Expect more desperate and shrill efforts to come – these companies are set to lose the gifted millions from their backpockets.
“But an Access Economics report commissioned by the Australian Medical Association (AMA) found the savings predicted in the Budget from increasing the rebate thresholds will not be achieved, unless 800,000 people drop their private health cover by July.”
Ms Roxon has told ABC radio’s AM program the report appears to be incomplete and confused.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/21/2250968.htm
The private health companies are a supported monopoly like petrol companies and supermarkets and regular insurance companies. They charge what they think will pay, not what the need to provide the service. And with the 30% rebate they probably figure they can gradually increase premiums another 30% since people were used to paying the higher price in the first place.
Not that I have any data that proves this.
Private health insurance subsidies were never a good idea unless you had shares in the insurance company. The ideological obsession the previous government had with private health made no economic sense. Why would we go down the US road on this one? They have the most expensive health care system in the world (13% of GDP!) yet their health outcomes are only about mid-field for OECD countries. And that does not even consider the appalling equity issues – millions unable to afford any treatment, and HMOs dictacting the level of care on non-medical grounds. Comprehensive public systems in northern European countries leave them for dead – they are both cheaper (8 to 9% of GDP) and better for patients. Why do right wingers stick to this mistake?
What’s all this talk about private health premiums going up? They’ve been going up anyway even with the present arrangement. Nothing will change.
This from Kina’s 113 article
“Consumer group CHOICE says the planned changes to the surcharge may force health funds to become more competitive.
CHOICE spokesman Michael Johnston says the changes are fairer to consumers, because they are less likely to be forced to join a health fund.
He also says the funds may now have to make changes to keep customers from leaving.”
This is another reason why private heath funds are crapping themselves and desperately getting all these “doctored” reports made up.
HA!
I just heard the AMA chief claiming the private health insurance premiums will ride by 5%.
HA!
That’s a good result compared to recent years, and indicates next to NO net impact.
What’s that jumping off a cliff? – oh just the AMA’s credibility.
$800M buys a lot of doctored reports.
Nicola Roxon batted this one away with a toothpick.
Has someone called for a Royal Commission yet? Should be able to get a decent report out of that.
Crikey et al:
Pseudo battlers should get a grip (Ross Gittins)
http://business.smh.com.au/pseudo-battlers-should-get-a-grip-20080520-2ghb.html
A nice little article that sums up a lot of blogosphere sentiment at the moment.
The AMA is credible when it talks about medicine. When it talks about economics it is just another lobby group. From doctors I know it does not even represent the views of all doctors – especially some in the public system.
Allbull is still banging on about the ‘Tarago tax’.
Head in the sand stuff.
He just referred to the ‘protectionist tendancies of the new government’
Ouch – the irony hurts.
Press Club address:
I like the way that Allbull assumes that the infrastructure fund will be expended ‘MacBank’ style, and refers to it in the terms of a publically offered fund.
Like that model hasn’t inflated the price of everything it touches…
I’m really hoping that Treasury has a better way than promising to fleece pockets to roll out our infrastructure.
Turnbull hasn’t answered a question yet. This is a poor performance.
Yeah, heard parts. Banging on about how Howard/Costello were brilliant. No attempt to redefine the Fib Party. They will be saddled with Howard for years, losing market share all the time.
Maybe a new conservative party needs to arise to shake off the dead weight of Howard/Costello?
Allbull at the press club.
Overall the speech was negative, that is, full of criticism for the government and the only balancing positives are motherhood statements about the difference between the two parties. Nothing specific on the coalition or his own views on his actual job – shadow treasurer.
Paul Bonjourno – leaked email
Mathew Franklin – drop in preferred treasurer numbers and the flip flops pre-budget
Michelle Grattan – HIH investigation
Mark Kenney (Advertiser) Medicare levy surcharge, indexing in relation to original figures and choice. Plenty of mock outrage here. Quote from Allbull: ‘highly subsidised public health system’ huh?
Karen Middleton – challenge for leadership – the inevitable question and answer
Mark Riley – polling numbers…hostile takeover?
Malcolm Farr – coalition budget doesn’t add up
Laura Tingle – What are the coalition benchmarks for the budget – good question. Rhetoric reply; doesn’t address Laura’s question at all.
consistently implies that the treasurers job is to baby sit
Toolman – 5c fuel excise; not a bad question. More mock political rhetoric.
Steve Lewis – fuel and emissions trading
Maria Hawthorne – teh email again and economic credibility. Allbull comes to life.
Clinton Porteous – teh email again – refuses to answer
missed one
Daniel Street (9)- fuel excise and Allbull’s input in the budget reply. It’s Brendan’s….he’s the leader
Andrew Fraser (CT) – The history of the LP, advice and leadership
Andrew Probyn (WA) – the state politics career advice issue, Julie Bishop & the sniffer.
Bernard Keane (Crikey) – pensioners and Ergas review; political longevity. Pensions not in Ergas review at the moment…bzzzzz wrong answer.
Last question cut off
No major gaffs, but nothing to add to the already fleshed out issues either.
Certainly no policy development going on either. He knows his ideological arguments well, but I find them contradictory. I’ve said my piece on ideology earlier in the thread – it’s a crutch for simpletons who prefer a one size fits all approach as opposed to a targeted solution to a specific problem or system.
I didn’t realise he’s 53. He’s unlikely to see government again in a leadership position IMO.
124
In a sense the Fibs (I’m not sure whether that’s intentional or not Thomarse – but I like it) have lost their ‘yeast’. They forgot to save any from the last brew, and this brew just isn’t going to work.
I don’t see any yeast on the current front bench. Allbull is their best chance when amongst his own and away from the party room, but he’s made too many Costello style mistakes and risen thus far through division rather than inclusion.
There’s a stalemate between the current king makers, and one or all of them needs to go for progress.
Gippsland:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/seat-win-almost-impossible-rudd/2008/05/21/1211182847252.html
Dr Nelson was today campaigning in the seat, won by the Nationals’ Mr McGauran at last year’s election with a reduced margin of 5.9 per cent.
“Gippsland will be an almost impossible seat to win,” Mr Rudd told reporters in Melbourne today.
“It’s going to be a difficult task for us but we need to make sure we provide an option for the local people.
“(But) while recognising it will be one hell of a chance for Labor to win, this is a very difficult seat for us.”
Nonetheless, Mr Rudd said Labor would campaign hard in the seat.
120 Socrates
“The AMA is credible when it talks about medicine.”
Please tell me you didn’t mean that. They have NO IDEA about medicine. The spokeman is usually the President who cannot possibly know about all medical treatments. Most times the AMA comments on something, it represents about 20% of doctors thinking (mainly the dimwit losers who choose to go on AMA councils).
I know it probably looks like Rudd is trying to play down expectations in Gippsland, but I think that is actually an accurate assesment. Being from there originally, and still notionally connected with the place, it’s made up of an ageing population (which, as Possum pointed out, is the diminishing constituancy of the conservatives), combined with farmers, resource sector workers (from the Bass Strait oil rigs) and a contingent of military from an air force base. While they are probably as turned off by the current state of the libs as everyone else, I suspect they will (as they always do) park their vote with the Nationals, who, at least in the media, have managed to steer clear of the libs infighting. To my mind it’s like the disenchanted ALP voters voting green. And anyway, Darren Chester is busy being Miss Everywhere down there (I spotted him twice over the course of one weekend visit).
I thought it was 100% subsidised?
God I wish they had asked him what he meant by that. The answer would have been interesting.
One of the architects of Medicare has backed the Federal Government’s increase in the threshold for the surcharge levy.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/21/2251482.htm
David Speers watched a different budget reply speech to me today. He liked it.
David Speers would
nothing to confuse his little mind
plenty of undergraduate level ideology
The Doctors Reform Society usually oppose whatever the AMA says
http://www.drs.org.au/index.html
Did I?
I think you will find that Dr Rosie from the AMA has a “real job” selling medical indemnity insurance.
Anyhoo there are 500-800 thousand people saying thank you Kev and Swannie for letting me ditch the insurance I did not want.
A hint to the young uns, put your money into a cash management fund, if you need elective surgery when you are an old fogey you will be squillions of bucks in front.
No, you didn’t, William. Posts 106 and 107 temporarily disappeared from my computer screen when I refreshed, and I wrongly assumed I had been censored by the mighty one. Then they popped up again after I grovelled my apology!
Zoom
The snowy runs into the Murray, the north south takes from the Murray, I know poetic license. And yes I believe that the snowy was a great scheme. Even today it makes a significant contribution to the stability of our power grid.
The finer details of where we would be today I won’t debate; more dams probable would have meant more water usage ( more economic activity) so the whole thing is circular. I won’t even debate what dams do, that is alter the environment. It’s a fact of life. As an aside, I suspect fish like water, I know it only a suspicion and a couple of phd’s are needed to prove it..
My problem is the conclusion that what comes before the dam is better than what comes after. The world is not a stable never changing eco system that man must never change.
Forty thousand years ago you could walk to Tasmania, ice covered most of Victoria and volcanoes where active in the state.
We are here, we like a reasonable standard of living so the question in my mind is how do we get it without turning the place into a hydrocarbon by product. Hydo power is a clean renewable energy as is wind energy and solar power.
Yes I support dams in any gully that has a river running into it cause the stored fresh water gets there because of the sun not because we burned stuff to generate power so we can desalinate and pump it.
I like fresh water cause it can be used to generate power, used to grow stuff, used to shower dam haters living in the city, used by the fish to swim in, looks nice and can be water skied on.
I don’t hold the view if nature causes a rock slide and creates a dam it is ok but if man runs his dump trucks and does it, it’s a disaster.
Thats all I’m saying.
From the link in Kina’s post @ 131 -
“Private health insurance is not particularly price sensitive.
“People who buy it, buy it because they want that extra cover or they believe in that particular method of getting their health services. Price doesn’t matter a great deal.”
This may be the case for those who believe in private insurance. Of course those forced into buying it by Howie on pain of getting whacked by the ATO will drop out in droves. However, that will have little material affect on the public system because most of them took out the cheapest cover they could and would get slugged a king’s ransom in co-payments if they ever took leave of their senses and actually used the private system.
Crikey, my understanding is that a single parent (ie. your sis in law is separated and is single) and she is working part time (at the ATO for godsake and she should know this) would be fully aware that the education allowance is a tax rebate (not to be confused with the EMA Allowance – the Education Maintenance Allowance) that is paid in installments (and which, by the way, she probably receives and deservedly so).
In essence at the end of the financial year she claims the rebate! As for salary sacrifice I’m confused! Who said no more salary sacrifice? Is it outlawed???
I just hope that the Libs are stupid enough to block the Budget…they’d lose at least a dozen seats in the ensuing double-dissolution election….
Blocking the budget need not trigger a double dissolution, Mathew (indeed, could not trigger one if no trigger existed, as at present).
The Fibs are playing silly buggers talking about blocking legislation in the senate, in six weeks time they will no longer have the numbers.
If the Greens, Feilding and Nick X want to force a DD in the future the Fiberals will cave in and pass any legislation.
The last thing they want is a DD with lower quotas insuring greater representation of minor parties.
We are talking about politicians.
Isn’t there an agreement (legislation?) that is supposed to prevent a re run of 1975?
charles @ 138 -
The snowy runs into the Murray,
If you mean the Snowy River then yes, its water is now mostly diverted into the Murray, but it naturally runs to the ocean at Marlo (south of Orbost) in eastern Victoria.
Hydo power is a clean renewable energy as is wind energy and solar power.
Environmentalists dispute this. Dams can add a lot of CO2 to the atmosphere as the vegetation rots. And there are other impacts, as for example, in the case of the Snowy River which was reduced mostly to a dry stream with a buggered eco system.
Another problem with hydro is that it only works if it rains. The output from the Snowy Scheme has been much reduced in the last couple of years through lack of water, and Tasmania is now often importing electricity from the mainland for the same reason. However, solar could be the saving grace of some plants by generating power to pump water back into the hydro dams during the day to provide baseload at night.
Please ignore the 1975 reference in 144. Brain went off half-cocked ;(
mondial back at 100. Maybe you’re right, though I’d like to see some evidence of a generalisation applying to whole generations, as I fundamentally don’t trust such generalisations. I could be accused of looking at this question from the point of view of a group of people who usually have their antennae tuned for people who skew their behaviour in two different directions, that of under or over responsibility for their actions, and the effects of their actions on others. And we’re particularly attuned for blaming which we regard as immature. One of the myriad things that annoyed the hell out of me, and probably the people with which I would most identify as fellow travellers, is the Howard gov’t’s predilection for blaming everyone but themselves for everything that was clearly a problem, not to mention their clawing to themselves, everything that was a positive. One of the things that gives me some cause for hope is that Rudd says that the buck stops with him, that he won’t try and shift blame, that he will try and address the problem, that he will take responsibility. He may well disappoint, such as, why the hell is he going to the West Indies for the Frank Worrell Cup? Howard you would expect, but Rudd?
Socrates, gotta agree with Diogenes about the AMA knowing stuff about medicine. I know more stuff about medicine than most of the mouthpieces for the AMA and being a spokesperson for the AMA does not require any understanding of health economics. Why, for example, should the cost of most increasingly used technology decrease over time, but not medical technology? Have a look at how the pharmaceutical companies operate, and don’t get taken in by the b.s. peer reviewed gold standard published research either.
MayoFeral Says:
May 21st, 2008 at 6:45 pm
Environmentalists come up with many nonsense arguments; which unfortunately devalues the band ( in-word I think). The vegetation rots once; but hay any red herring will do.
The stopping of the damming of lake Pedder was a great environmental success wasn’t it, the missing power now coming from brown coal burnt at Loy Yang. One set of pretty views ( I like viewing dams) at the cost of how many tonnes of CO2.
But probable a circular argument, if lake Pedder had been dammed there would now probable be more Tasmanian industry and less human misery. Anyway the DC link would still have been built for the mainland to get access to the hydro power ( reasons explained below).
Rest assured there is no problem generating the night load. In fact one of the systems in the snowy scheme pumps water uphill at night to generated power to assist with peak load during the day. Sort of a big water battery. One of the many problems with coal fired stations is the inability to turn them down; and you don’t need most of them at night. Thats the reason a system needs Hydro power, you can use it as a spinning reserve with the machines brought on and off line as they are needed to take up load variation.
Barcelona Tonight are still banging on about Pensioners.
http://au.todaytonight.yahoo.com/article/3509827/money/adopt-pensioner
148 ??Lake Pedder has been dammed by Electric Eric back in the 1970s. Thinking about the Franklin? People need to get real about saving energy and producing it locally rather than moving it around the country with massive wastage of resources and major environmental damage.
The water from the North South pipeline doesn’t come from the Murray either.
It comes from Eildon dam.
The water from Eildon goes into the Goulburn which eventually gets to the Murray BUT the water which is intended for the NS pipeline is supposed to come from water savings – so water which probably wouldn’t get to the Murrray because it would have been evaporated or leaked.
You could argue that, without the N-S pipeline, more water would eventually get to the Murray but then, without the N-S pipeline, the work which will save this water won’t happen, so there won’t be more water to go to the Murray anyway.
Absolutely no argument about hydro, but that’s nothing to do with the n-s pipeline or indeed most of our dams – we have plenty that do nothing hydro wise.
On another topic, listened to news radio as I was in the car alot today. It is incredible how much coverage and air time the fed opposition get. Virtually every story had Nelson or Turnbull commenting, and no one from government. The ABC wont give up their allegiance easily will they??
This is absurd. The story was about Turnbull’s press club address where he claimed that cutting the petrol excise was a good policy “politically”, which of course implies that it isn’t a good policy _economically_.
I don’t think the ABC is biased either for or against the Government. They annoy both sides, which is why they are always accused of being biased, when they are actually less biased than most commercial media.
Frank, the Federal Government copped it twice tonight on TT. Pensioners and water. They made Rudd out to be the devil incarnate. Do they have an agenda or what?
i have said it before people who watch such shows allow them to be on television.
People who watch dumb shows encourage dumb shows to be shown.
Sorry to bang on about this, truly I am, but Charles – can you nominate a river that can be dammed to supply Melbourne with water?
My understanding is that (apart from Ted’s plan to dam the Marbybinong(?)) all the ones that could be have been and the only reason the one starting with M hasn’t is that it isn’t a practical proposition.
The argument for the desal plant, which you haven’t addressed, is that it provides a drought proof supply of water, which our present water supplies don’t.
Until this drought, nobody (that’s NO BODY) thought Melbourne’s water supply would ever be threatened and thus nobody thought there was a need for any supplementary supplies. The extent of this drought took everyone, even the experts, by surprise.
Thus the recognition that Melbourne needs a back up plan, a source of water which is not dependant on rain or – indeed – dependent on reservoirs which can be rendered unusable after a bushfire (the threat to the Thompson during the last fires were very real. An inability to draw usable water from the Thompson would have been catastrophic for Melbourne).
I noticed that, though I wasn’t watching the screen, it was on in the background.
SEven is owned by Kerry Stokes, a member of the Liberal Party’s 500 club, which is rather ironic as one of his political reporters here in Perth, Reece Whitby, has just won preselection for the state ALP seat of Morley.
Zoom is logging in Victorias’ catchments a good policy, how much water could be saved without logging.
Speaking of the ABC. I have been getting cane toads appearing on my front lawn most nights but no Albrechtsens as yet. Don’t think my freezer would be big enough. :]
I hardly even watch the ABC news or current affairs shows now, pointless. I will wait until there is a change and Howard’s toxic leeches are burnt off.
I check out the web site occassionally just to see what issues are out and about.
159 Kina
Pity that you presumably missed Lateline. Very interesting interview with Andrew Bacevich…
Marky
problem is defining a catchment.
In its broadest definition, every single tree is in a catchment.
It was always understood (in the good old days of the MWB) that major water reservoir catchments were protected from all human impact, so ‘logging in a catchment’ simply didn’t happen.
Recently, however, the definition of ‘catchment’ appears to have been extended.
Appears – to me, at least, and I admit this isn’t one I’ve gone into much, my areas of interest not overlapping with the ones in question – to be a way of ending logging by stealth.
Yes, unlogged forests produce better, cleaner and more water than logged. But logging i. provides a totally renewable source of material; ii. provides a material for which there is a constant demand; iii. provides a material which is largely carbon neutral in its production; iv. is one of those things best done where we can see it rather than where we can’t.
Personally, I’m all for pine plantations, but you should hear the whinging from the environmental groups about THEM.
Hey zoom
Are Australian pine plantations really all that productive?
They sure make a mess of former bushland and the Canberra fires illustrate the risk they create to human development.
There’s nothing quite so wonderful as climbing above a plantation pine forest into a natural eucalypt one, so I have personal bias, but I’m a bit clueless on the net environmental and economic benefit.
Diogenes and Harry Snapper Organs
Happy to accept your view (and amused to hear) that the AMA knows little about medicine. I am not a doctor and was simply assuming that they know their own field, hence my term “credible”. I just didn’t feel qualified to criticise their medical knowledge and was damning with faint praise. The emphasis in my statement was intended to be on the second part – that they are not credible on health economics. On that I feel confident
Also Harry, I fully agree on your comments on dodgy studies – the questionable ethics of funding studies to satisfy the ends of the payee is a big problem in science. It can be difficult in engineering too. Some environmental scientists knocked back bidding to work on the pulp mill proposal for Gunns – the process was obviously inadequate. But that didn’t stop others doing the job.
I’m not sure how they work in productive terms, but I would argue that if you want to stop/reduce native forest logging they’re the best option.
No, they shouldn’t be planted on former bushland, but on land already cleared. There’s plenty of marginal farming land which is perfectly suitable for pines.
My understanding was that the forests around Canberra were not being managed; they had decided never to log them and therefore the trees were old and overgrown.
My knowledge of European pine forests and fires are hazy, to say the least, but I do know that nothing beats a eucalypt forest for intensity, yet we have far more towns nestled amongst eucalypts than we do amongst pines. I would think pines are safer (but if you build amongst trees in our environment you’re asking for trouble).
I came to pine plantations with a bias, having seen an area ‘ruined’ by them, but have since researched the issue more thoroughly (and live slap bang next to one, so have some first hand knowledge!)
Anyway, over 90% of our timber needs can be supplied by pine, which means much less reliance on native timber. It’s locally grown, so we know what happens with its management;it’s carbon neutral (and growing more pine would be good in climate change terms); and generally it can do most of the building jobs hardwood can (although never, never, never buy pine decking – it’s crap).
Onimod
Pine plantations are highly productive in the sense that many pine species are fast growing trees in teh Australian climate. The problem is that they (some species) can have a detrimental impact on soil in the long term (acidic foliage droppings from pine needles) generally produce less valuable timber (softwood) and don’t hold the soil together as well as eucalypts. But it varies – some pine species produce very valuable timber. I imagine it all depends on what species, where it is planted, and how it is harvested.
Possum @ 40
That stuff about the Coalition’s strongest demographic being a particular age group that’s, well, ageing is pretty interesting. The bracket you mention, people now approaching seventy or older, is pretty much the pre baby boom generation isn’t it?. Anyone born, say, 1940 or earlier? Those were the people who were just that bit older during the social changes and economic turbulence of the 60s and 70s, which makes for some interesting theories. Do you have any idea how long that age group has been heavily Coalition-voting compared to the immediately younger group? I imagine the polling data gets sketchier the further you go back though.
Cripes, Fulvio at 108.
Just logged on, this is no fun! I needed to find out who
OH DEAR!
Not only sin tax but poor keying, on my part, too much junk near the key board. What I wanted to say is who is Hutt? And I cannot remember..your months earlier comment on my style involved a character, whose name I cannot summon to mind, but upon showing it to my friends, brought incredulous laughter and much ridicule.
Not to worry and as I spare them little, you provided them a great opportunity, not usually available, to bring me down. Which they enjoyed. And cool.
But who the hell are these Hutt persons?
From my understanding the pines and also the cork plantation were part of Burley Griffins plan for a sustainable industry and econimic future for Canberra as against just pollies coming to Canberra. During the depression a lot of people were employed planting the pines. It’s just a shame that the NCDC couldn’t get the collective finger out and do something positive.
Is that Hutt? Jewelled Cats?
Reading on, No, you did not, as far as can tell, William at 135, I am not in the least offended. I am amused. As are those to whom I refer, ( is that correct?) enjoy reading the print outs along with the opportunity for a laugh at my expense.
And thanks, Cille at 140, for that advice. She definitely should know, she is a Labor voter but likes, I reckon, having a good moan.
zoom
There may be one, but I doubt you can find a serious dam without a hydro station attached, it’s just one of those things dam builder like to do.
There are a couple of dams that still need to be built in Victoria, Maribyrnong River, lerderburg gorge (now theres a undammed gully and river that makes the mouth water) and Michial River come to mind but I agree; Bolte pretty much cleaned the job up.
My own view is the north/south pipeline must be built and unfortunately the risk is too high not to build the desalination plants. It might rain, it might not, you can’t base the future of a large city on a pray.
My issue with dams is the damage the environmental movement has done to itself opposing them, and now wind farms, no doubt the first serious solar station will also see protests, they cover a large area with well; solar panels. We need to move away from carbon as our energy source, it would be helpful if the environment movement supported the move instead of opposing any form of development.
Oh and my poetic effort over the snowy was to try and point out that Labor have been good dam builders to ( remember this all started because Possum painted all national voters as unreasonable because they want to build dams between any two hills). Perhaps I should have picked on Queensland where Labor is giving the Liberals stick because the Liberal member is opposing the building of a dam to try and secure Brisbanes water supply.
When I listen to Kerr chat with Phil Adams on LNL I get the impression that he’s an astute observer of politics. Then when I read rubbish like this:
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/christiankerr/index.php/theaustralian/comments/libs_right_to_take_a_populist_approach/
he comes across as a fool. Why is that so? It is true that the Libs are not running the country but that doesn’t mean they can get away with crazy policy making on the run – policy that they will have to dump as the next election approaches.
Windfarms!! Windfarms and the green movement!!!!
Charles, Charles, don’t get me started!
I know of more ‘water storages’ without hydro than I know of ones with. Maroondah, Lake Buffalo, Nilahcootie, Mokoan, Sugarloaf, Lake Hume, Thompson…off the top of my head. The only ones I KNOW of with hydro are Bogong, which is quite a small water storage and, of course, the Snowy. Don’t think Eildon has, either. Quite happy to be corrected, not claiming expert knowledge here.
BTW, the hydro from Bogong is being expanded – very exciting project, one of the few cases where there’s net benefit to the environment. Ticks lots of boxes. Look it up (AGL project).
126
onimod
Fibs/Fiberal party got invented on http://www.kevinruddsucks.com, a site us lefties have made our own.
Glad you enjoyed it.
The Queensland Electoral Commission website says the Queensland proposed state redistribution will be available from 8.30am tomorrow.
http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/asp/index.asp
Downer considering UN post
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23739564-29277,00.html
Thomarse
What do they call the Nationals? Notionals? Delusionals? The Appendix Party? The Party’s Over Party? Pinneapple Party? The Nutbar Coalition?
Possum and everyone else, if you’re interested in demography and voting, the best paper on the subject in recent years is by Ian Watson.
http://www.ianwatson.com.au/pubs/watson_demography_against_coalition.pdf
There are two broad views about age and voting. There is the life cycle view, that people start off radical and get more conservative as they age, and the cohort view, that often certain cohorts born around the same time have sets of views that dominate through life.
Cohorts are important. The generation born in the depression, or after the war, or in the 1970s, started life with different values and views of the world.
The Coalition’s current problem is that most research points to first time voters being more consistently left-leaning since 1970. And before someone points out that the 2004 Australian Election Survey had more first time Liberal voters than Labor voters, viewing this as in support of a rising young Coalition vote only works if you ignore the one in five who voted Green.
But in the 1950s and 1960s, first time voters consistently voted Coalition. This was especially so for young women, for whom the overwhelmingly working class Labor Party had little appeal.
It is these overwhelmingly Coalition first-time voters of the 50s and 60s, and the fact that women live longer than men, that explain the Coalition’s dominance today in older age groups.
Back in 1971, a year after Labor had been in opposition from coast to coast, Don Aitkin produced the first edition of ‘Stability and Change in Australian Voting’, a standard though now out of date work on Australian voting beheviour. On the basis of 1967 and 1969 surveys, the conculsion he drew was that Labor’s electoral failure of the previous decade could be put down to its lack of appeal to young voters, to women voters and to migrant voters.
Now, which party would you make that sort of point about today?
Ta Antony – there’s also an update for the 07 election:
http://www.apo.org.au/webboard/comment_results.chtml?filename_num=201694
Cheers Antony
Nice little packet of data there.
I guess we’re going to be stuck with alcopops at one end and pensioners at the other for a while yet, while the ALP try to stop ‘working families’ from drifting conservative.
two things:
Plantations – can be both softwood (pine) and hardwood (Eucalypt). Have different uses and growth outputs etc. Pine is actually good for water quality but they also suck a lot up. Also lots of work being done on short-rotation hardwoods (to 7 years before harvesting) to increase production. And should only be on old farmland.
Dams – hydro is fine but relys on rainfall. In a falling rainfall situation they lose utility (and I’m not even going close to the environmental issues surrounding dams). But we don’t do water conservation, stormwater harvesting, grey & black water harvesting etc very well. Consider also that while mining uses just 3% of total water usage, this can represent up to 50% in a locality. In terms of windfarms and environmentalist, this issue is changing with climate change, and for solar panels – why the Rudd cut to the solar cell rebate? We have millions of hectares of roof space that can be used for both water and solar harvesting.
my two cents…
Stewart J
Regarding energy policy, its sobering to realise that in Ireland renewable energy requirements mean that, although not mandatory, in practice most new homes now have solar hot water.
“Starting at the end of 2005, a number of progressive local authorities introduced building energy standards as part of planning requirements in their jurisdiction. These building energy standards require a substantial increase in the energy performance of new buildings (between 40% and 60% reduction in energy usage) as well as a mandatory contribution of renewable energy to their thermal energy requirement.” (From a report on Local Building Energy Standards in Ireland)
There is quite a bit more solar energy in australia than Ireland, so we don’t have many excuses left when they accept standards like this. So even if they think that solar PVs are not the most economic solution, lets see an initiative in its place that is economic – surely, solar hot water fits that bill.
Stewart J @ 183 – I have both solar water heating and a grid-connect photovoltaic (PV) system.
All new electric hw systems (new installations and replacement) in SA must now include solar panels, and IME this gives the biggest return for your buck. I’m able to turn off power to my hw heater from around the end of August until late April/early May.
On current prices the only thing that makes PV generating worthwhile is that from July 1 in SA AGL will have to pay at least twice the retail price for every KWh of electricity pumped back into the grid with an initial minimum price of $0.44 KWh. Queensland is or will soon be doing the same. Of course as the price of electricity rises and the cost of PV cells drop generating your own power will become more worthwhile.
But that said, I’m not convinced that individual PV generation is the best use of resources or the taxpayers’ money in subsidies. It would be cheaper per watt, and less wasteful in resources, to build large solar farms in areas with the most hours of daily sunlight with cells mounted on Sun tracking frames. The latter alone increases output by 30-50% but isn’t economical for small personal installations.
There is no reason why we couldn’t have a scheme where people still bought 1KWh of generating capacity with the current $8-00/watt government subsidy but instead of having the PV panels on their own roofs they were in a solar farm up north somewhere and they got a share of the profits, or a discount off their power bills. An added benefit might be that the farms could be sited near indigenous communities providing work which may ease the social problems some have.
185 Mayo
That’s a nice summary of what appears to be an educated view of the issue. You’re not the only one with that view either, but it’s a view which hasn’t even seen the light of day in the MSM.
A little bird told me that sustainability policy is one that’ll get a big push later in the year. Hell, we’ve waited 10 years (or fifty)…
You have to laugh. The Daily Terror has put up a story about Tania Zaetta.
It begins “PRIME Minister Kevin Rudd has weighed into the alleged Tania Zaetta sex scandal, while fellow tour members have revealed what life was really like on tour.”
The Rudd haters have failed to read past this opening paragraph and have accused him of all manner of sins eg. Wanting a headline by mixing with stars etc.
But this is what Rudd had to say “”I have seen those reports today and, as I understand it, these matters are under investigation within the defence department and I will leave it for that investigation to reach its own conclusions,” he told reporters in Canberra.” That is, thanks for asking (a journalsi obviously asked him about it) but no comment. Amazing stuff.
and note it came out 2 days after the conclusion of the Australian Story 2 parter on said tour.
Not only that Frank but it seems it has no basis in fact.
What is the issue here? I accept Ms Zaetta’s denial of the non-story but if it were true so what.
Woman bonks man – hardly an unusual event.
190 ruawake – it could be argued that they were told not fraternise with the troops (not to that degree anyway) but I agree with you. Big deal.
And then there is this gem on his recent Bali Trip. And guess who is upset, the Shadow Minister for protecting Tania Zaetta
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23737011-949,00.html
179
Socrates
We call the Nats the Agrarian Socialists (Oh how I wish they would resume the name Country Party
Mayoferal @ 185
Agreed, and the consumer still receives the kickback. What does it matter where the electricity comes from, as long it comes?
In my street we have shade many hours per day (”leafy” Sydney northern suburbs). A battery of solar cells on my roof would he HIGHLY inefficient as the sun traverses between large eucalypts and the roofs of other houses. Bloody ugly, too (we “leafy” types like to keep things “leafy”).
Now, put the same number of solar cells on a solar farm, in bright sunshine all day, tracked to the sun’s movement and you’re talking efficiency.
Furthermore, the same crew of installers that took a whole day to install my three solar cells, high-up on a roof with special tiler’s OH&S insurance, could install probably twenty times that amount in the same time at ground level in a solar farm without the hassle and the paperwork. It’s a no-brainer of a solution.
So I rang up Origin Energy (a leader in Australian alternative energy strategies) and spoke to a senior manager. I’d worked out that the whole of Australia’s needs could be serviced by a solar farm 15 kilometres square (similar figures have been worked out by many others).
He agreed that this was an obvious solution. But there was a Catch-22.
Government policy.
(Howard) Government policy required the solar cells to be installed on the family home for the kickback to accrue to the householder. When asked (by this guy at Origin) “Why?”, the relevant minister just said, “It’s a residential cashback system.”. When further asked why it had to be not only financially residential but geographically residential his answer was, “Because it has to, that’s why.”
The real reason, of course, was because the coal companies didn’t like the idea of solar farms competing with them. As long as it was a boutique industry for wankers with bad consciences, doing hardly anything to mitigate global warming, the coal miners were happy.
If solar actually did something then that would be no good at all.
Now, Labor has only been in a few months. I’m hoping (perhaps “praying” is a better word for it) that someone, somewhere will see some sense in paying the subsudy even if the actualy physical solar cells are located away from the residence.
If Minchin and his previous Master had signed Kyoto maybe the Bali bill would have been a lot less.
I think the $8000 PV rebate goes some way to showing how expensive it is to convert anyone who is slightly environmental to the conservative side of politics.
I reckon that’s where the thought started and ended.
Woman bonks army may be an unusual event. Was anyone counting?
Petrol in Nambour Qld was $1.33 per litre today – given that Qld fuel should be 8c a litre less than other states that makes it $1.41.
So why is it $1.60? Would Nelson’s “political” fix of 5c less excise make any difference or would it just give oil companies $5 million a day in profit?
Kina
What happens on tour…
Or in other words who cares what consenting adults get up to. (Except if you think we are still fighting the crusades and the SAS are knights templar).
Bushfire Bill @ 184 – I agree that the solar subsidy had more to do with Howard wanting to appear to be do something about global warming without actually costing his coal industry cronies a cent in lost income.
There are far more effective ways of spending tax dollars on the global warming problem.
As I type this I can hear my neighbour’s reverse cycle air-conditioner cycling on and off as she tries to keep warm on what is a cold day. In winter and summer it is rarely off because her house is uninsulated so is cold in winter and oven hot in summer. The lack of eaves only adds to the problem in summer.
There are still no regulations preventing houses being built this way which is unbelievable given what we now know. It is time state governments were booted up the arse for allowing this.
And they could be doing a lot more to help people improve the energy efficiency of their homes. The $8,000 solar subsidy would do much more good if it went towards retrofitting older homes with insulation, sun blocking verandas (just like our great grandparents had!), double glazing/shutters etc.
My house is about the same size and construction as my neighbour’s yet I use about 3,000 KWh less electricity than her annually. Thick insulation is the main factor, but so are the security roller shutters I installed soon after moving in to take advantage of local conditions. Most evenings the wind swings around to come over Lakes Albert and Alexandrina to the SE bring cooling breezes from about 4PM on even the hottest days. The shutters allow me to open all my windows at night to cool the house without compromising security and block out the sun during the heat of the day. In summer I rarely need to turn on the air-conditioner.
Naturally, other areas would have different factors that could be exploited, but savings of 2,000 KWh plus shouldn’t be too hard to find in most houses. OTOH, a 1 KWh system is theoretically rated to produce only 1,500 KWh in my area. In practise its more likely to be 200-300 units less even in ideal conditions and much less in shaded areas.
The problem is that there is so much we
couldshould be doing and so little time to do it before the brown stuff hits the fan.Australia building biggest solar power station in the world
October 26, 2006
http://media.cleantech.com/node/242
Not South Australia, sadly MayoFeral.
Do you know the name of the company developing a large scale solar generating system somewhere at either the top of South Australia, or maybe the Territory? Four Corners had something on it last year.
Many thanks to Antony and Possum for the references to Ian Watson’s work and for Antony’s explanation.
Slightly off subject but politically related anyway. I was listening to the parliamentary news station early this morning and was only half awake but there was a spokesperson who I think was from the RACV (but I might be wrong on that) talking about world parity pricing of oil by Australia. I thought I heard him say that we may have to do away with it for the price of fuel to drop because most of our fuel is produced from our own oil.
I know it was the Fraser government that introduced world parity pricing but was wondering if there was anyone out there in PB land that understands the effect of world parity and who benefits from it. Is it the oil companies (e.g. BHP Esso), the Government or anybody else or would we have much cheaper fuel today if it hadn’t been introduced in the first place?
Minchin is evil!!!!! Everything that is wrong with the Liberal Party today shows on the face of that man!!!!!
Brenton – would you like to elaborate there?
Or did you just see the symbol ‘666′ behind his ear?
Plenty of ways to spend the $8000 PV rebate discussed on Quantum tonight.
Small note – check the move to remove planning control from individual councils in greater Melbourne.
Decentralised control of urban populaces is one of the dumbest ways to put lag in the evolution (revolution?) cycle of a city. The environmental lead London has shown cannot be followed currently without major planning reform.
zoom
Lake Hume 58 megawatts http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Hume
Thomson Reservoir and Cardinia Reservoir pipeline 50 GWh a year http://melbournewater.com.au/content/publications/fact_sheets/water/meeting_the_greenhouse_challenge.asp?bhcp=1
Lake Buffalo agreed, must have been too far from the grid.
Eildon http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eildon_Power_Station,_Victoria_(Australia)
Nillahcootie agreed, listed as a potential site http://kids.mdbc.gov.au/encyclopedia/electricity_generation
Lake Mokoan is being decommissioned ( the lake), too shallow, too large.
Superloaf, I think your right but I can’t find a ref either way.
A Tracey Affafair are milking Bonkgate for it’s worth with an “exclusive interview” with Tania Z and insuating that it’s Rudd’s fault for not commenting.
onimod 206, you dont have to look behind his ear for the 666!!!!! The destruction of the Liberal Party of Australia is due to such people.
I notice in the program guide Rudd is on the ABC for a hour tonight in a new show called Q&A. Anyone know anything about that?
Thanks for that, Charles.
203
From the WA Fuelwatch website:
“Central to the price of petrol in Australia is the price petrol is selling for overseas. Successive Commonwealth Governments since 1977 have adopted an import parity pricing policy to determine national pricing levels for all motor fuels. This means the domestic price for petrol in Australia is linked to international petrol prices to ensure local refiners will not sell their offshore to obtain higher prices (and potentially leave no fuel for the local market).”
Ultimately, this benefits the fuel companies since without the import parity there would be one instance where a major fuel shortage would occur. This would then followed by massive pressure from the voters to prevent it happening again, resulting in the politicians forcing the oil companies to sell the required amount of fuel to the Australian market, at prices supported by the supply and demand of the local market.
Kina apparently there is a studio audience who will be able to ask Kev questions plus they’ll take email and sms questions as well.
And watch them stack the audience questions, emails and sms messages to attack Rudd
If anyone want”s ask Kev something
http://www.abc.net.au/tv/qanda/
And WA people should do it NOW, because of the time difference – no doubt this program will be Eastern States Centric, unless they select questions already sent in earlier.
Rudd just said that all alternative energy options should be on the table.
I therefore look forward to progress on the nuclear option.
Crikey Whitey @ 201 – Sorry, don’t know and so far haven’t been able to find it on the 4 Corners site either. But saw the following quote from former 4 Corners reporter Jonathon Holmes on a thread titled ‘The folly of subsidising solar panels’:
which sums up my feelings on the subject, though I may be biased as I figure I would qualify on that criteria.
And just to expand the discussion. Instead of ‘call me Brendan’ wasting billions of our taxes on a paltry 5 cents a litre reduction in petrol excise wouldn’t it be better a) initially putting the money into more effective public transport and b) then reverse energy wasting urban sprawl by consolidating our cities into more compact units that don’t require some folk to spend more hours commuting to work than they actually spend doing it!
Every time I hear some #@$%wit going on about releasing more land on the outer fringes of capital cities to contain housing price increases I want to scream!
Oh Noooooooooo…………..Hyacinths tiara has been nicked
http://news.theage.com.au/national/break-in-at-former-pms-home-20080522-2h9y.html
James J Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
James J Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:42 pm
With Europe going flat out installing wind farms and building no more nuclear reactors ( one reason being a lack of fuel reserves), James wants the nuclear option on the table; well I suppose you have to have something to laugh at.
The ABC Q and A, just begins in SA. Hoping to watch, with interest.
Between heightened anxiety further phone calls, rellies and friends. Not to mention my ghastly neighbour. Not the waterer, the one on the other side. What an immoral person she happens to be. I am besieged. Strata Title issues. I rang in response to a letter from her lawyer, asking if it is true that I will be summonsed. Yes, he said. Bring it on, I said. She is after all, a liar and a thief, I did not say. And amazingly, doesn’t get it. I will be fine, as I am not of the same type, but who needs it?
It will be my birthday on Saturday, you are all invited to the party. But God, what a pile up. I should be cooking, I have managed to clear the kitchen in advance, but.
Thanks, MayoFeral. Thinking about it, I may be able to find out by alternative means.
If you do away with parity fuel pricing, you’d have a fuel shortage quicker than Kruddy can say “when it comes to…”. The companies would sell our oil overseas where they would get a better price. And if exports were banned, there would be no increase in production that we would need as there would be no reason for anyone to export to Australia (we import a 1/3 of our oil) if they were going to get a crap price. Oil workers would seek green pastures overseas (more so than now) and that would cause a breakdown in the supply system.
Of course, we could Nationalise the local oil industry but I think the “just terms” might be a little steep for the nation to handle.
We need to learn with high fuel prices and we need to come up with a new source of fuel sometime soon (biofuel based on a farmed saltwater algae perhaps).
Rudd’s a real professional
GHV at 212
If I’m reading you right we are being dudded by parity but the fact that local refiners could decide to sell overseas to get a better price and thereby leaving us without any fuel seems to be the reason for having parity. Would I be right in saying that had we the reserves that say Iraq or Saudi Arabia has there might not be a case for parity. I inderstand fuel is extremely cheap in those two countries.
Disappointed Rudd couldn’t provide an answer as to why homosexuals shouldn’t be able to marry.
Kina@224: He certainly is.! Watched the show and thought he handled himself astutely. No yelling, no tirades, not afraid to disagree,some excellent humour and he spoke to the questioners not at them.
Rudd on Q&A tonight-did you notice the open body language? This bloke is not afraid. Which sort of gives some hope.
James@226: He did answer it.
Basically said in Australia marriage was between a man and women. That was the policy of the government and him personally.
Now personally I don’t agree with him as I don’t have any problems with same sex marriages.But he did point out his governments attempt to address other areas of inequality and discrimination for same sex couples.
Solar panels: yes, could build solar farms (although parking 15 sqm of panels somewhere is an AWFULLY big piece of coverage) – but the issue should be decentralisation of power supply so it doesn’t have to be transmitted – big power losses in transmission. Decentralised power also mitigates against cloud/non-functionality. But solar is only part of the solution, with other renewables acting in concert – so windfarms producing along side solar, hotrocks etc.
But surely the biggest problem is too many things switched on drawing power! Power conservation would limit need for new power stations altogether.
On building codes and planning: BASIX in NSW has been watered down again, so perhaps its just too much for major parties to consider at the moment (too many vested interests/donations at stake?). Yes, improved codes could apply to new buildings, but old buildings can be very expensive to refit (depending on the period/construction materials/method etc) so are not economical to do so. Needs to be phased, so is included in renewal of housing stock, with some rebates available for simply stuff (like insulation etc). And frankly, you’d be a twit for not putting in ceiling insulation if you can, just to save money/warmth etc.
On removing planning from local Councils: this removes ability of residents to control their own locality. Should be based in building codes/regulations. Removing power from Councils is what Sartor is doing here in NSW, and it is directly tied to the want of the Property Council to develop to their (or at least their members) hearts desire. Not about good planning but about developers making money. Councils can be quite relatively responsive where they are not dominated by one party or faction. Inner Sydney Councils have generally been quite progressive at looking at buildings/design etc for energy/water efficiency over recent years.
Okay, thats about five bucks worth now.
Enjaybee – to complicate the parity issue, we don’t have enough refining capacity to meet our petrol, and especially diesel needs. Here in SA almost all our petrol comes from Singapore and I believe almost all the country’s diesel comes from there too.
Of course we could either recommission mothballed refineries like Port Stanvac here, or build new ones, but economics of scale mean that we’d likely end up paying even more per litre. Plus we just end up using up our limited oil resource faster.
It boils down to petrol is going to get a whole lot more expensive – some are saying oil will hit US$200/barrel by year’s end which means around $2-30/Litre petrol – and while we might be able to manipulate the price a bit by playing funny buggers with parity pricing or 5 cents/litre excise reductions, in the end we’re going to be paddleless up you know which creek.
Takes courage to expose yourself for an hour and take questions from left field. To have such confidence means he certainly knows what he is about and what he plans. Funny to think his Labor comrades thought he was a nerdy type who wouldn’t amount to much.
Charles
Strictly speaking Europe is building new nuclear reactors. Finland is building its fifth (and largest) now, and Britain is planning building more too.
See this about the Finnish plant
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant
And this about the British plan
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/7179579.stm
Q&A
Pretty classy stuff from the Ruddster.
Probably too easy, but he does know how to work a room.
I wonder whether he’s avoiding a greater level of personalisation on purpose, or if it’s something he need to work on a bit? He could be bonding a bit more, but it can cost you the air of statesmanship. (Compare with PM Hawke)
Can you imagine where we’d be without the nice little mess Costello left behind him?
Mayoferral
I have been doing some work on petrol prices lately. In the short term it is very hard to know what will happen; there could be elements of panic and speculation in the recent price spike. However we can probably say the following:
- the price cycle is usually at its highest when demand is at its highest in the northern hemisphere summer holiday season, so expect high(er) prices from now till August (whereas gas usualy peaks with heating demadn in the NH winter)
- there probably is some profiteering going on as 60% of our oil is not imported
- the real issue is what happens from around 2012 onwards. The IEA medium term forcast is that from then on declines from old fields will exceed new production, while demand from India and China appears to be rising. So we will actually be in a shortage situation of 11% then (as opposed to the current balance of supply and demand without any margin for reserves).
Hopefully this is enough for people to stop saying this nonsense about us continuing to build V6s because of their export potential. There is good reason to believe the export market will dry up just as badly as the local one. The soner we can build a hybrid Comodore and Aurion, and Ford Fiesta, the better.
On Q&A Tony Jones was really pally with Kev, he was even smiling and nodding with what Kev had to say. I loved the updated Chairman Rudd video at the end.
Can anyone imagine the Rodent doing what Rudd just did?
I think a couple questions not quite answered, but the show was new to everyone. gay marriage is something the Ruddster has some problems with, due to religious beliefs.
MayoFeral Says:
May 22nd, 2008 at 11:02 pm
If oil production had peaked and you were in the know would you build a new refinery or open a moth balled refinery…do you know of a new refinery being built or a moth balled one being reopened.
This whole 5cents debate is nonsense, we are running out of oil, demand is exceeding supply, lower prices are not going to happen. The best outcome is for prices to rise sharply to encourage a sharp fall in demand.
If you own a hoover ( suck up the juice) tough.
I missed Q&A!
So Rudd did rather well?
I guess Nelson will be the guest next week?
Progressive,
Will be Tanya Plebersek, Tony Abbot and Bob Brown, as well as a panel of journos asking some questions with the audience.
By the way does anybody know about the outcome of the McEwan court case yesterday?
Can Tony Abbot be any more of a political dunce?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23744600-421,00.html
BenC I’m sure they would’ve reserved their decision even if it had reached an end to the court proceedings.
Eight new seats have been created in the Queensland electoral redistribution and eight eliminated
Buderim, Coomera, Dalby, Macrossan, Mermaid Beach, Morayfield, Samsonvale and Sunnybank are the new seats.
Government seats with eliminated are Fitzroy, Kurwongbah and Mt Gravatt.
One nation’s Tablelands seat is eliminated.
The Nationals seats of Charters Towers, Darling Downs and Cunningham have been eliminated.
Liberal’s Robina has been eliminated.
Steve
Has anyone done any analysis of the electoral impacts of the Queensland distribution? The Sunshine Coast in particular was one area they did well in previously but has been changing demographics.
Also, will this mean the prospect of three cornered contests if seats dissappear and the coalition can’t do a deal over whoc ounts as the sitting member? To me there is a huge risk for the Nats in this given Queensland’s optional preferential voting system. Do Possum or others have a view?
245 One Minister’s seat, Judy Spence in Mt Gravatt has been eliminated and Cook has been altered drastically which might make it hard for Jason O’Brien. Main Roads and Local Government Minister Warren Pitt looks ok in Mulgrave. Southport’s Peter Lawlor might find it difficult with a lot of Surfers Paradise moving into that electorate. Coomera gets a lot of Gaven and this might make it difficult for Phil Gray.
At first glance it looks like Howard Hobbs might come under pressure to make way for Stewart Copeland or Ray Hopper who the Nationals would not like to lose but both their seats are gone. Overall it looks like the Nationals are the winners from this redistribution.
Steve
Would all this give the Liberals an excuse to parachute Mal Brough in somewhere?
Socrates, the Liberals or the Pineapple party have been given a big chance of winning Indooroopilly. Ronan Lee who has depended on the youth vote around Toowong loses this area to Mt Cootha electorate and the entire blue ribbon suburb of Sherwood has been put in his electorate.
Mt Isa will be more difficult with Richmond and surrounding districts being put in the electorate. Cook becomes more difficult for Labor with the Mareeba area being included.
Amberley Air force base has been put into Ipswich West from Lockyer and I’d assume this would benefit the Pineapple party.
Logan has gained parts of Albert, Beaudesert and Lockyer electorates which will make life more difficult for Transport Minister John Mickel.
What is it with Mal Brough?
Is there some sort of prophesy somewhere I haven’t heard about?
Another interesting change is to Gregory held by long term National Vaughn Johnston.
“The Commission proposes to address the shortfall of elector numbers by
expanding the seat at its north and east to gain:
(a) parts of Central Highlands Regional Council and Isaac Regional Council
including Duaringa, Blackwater and Dingo and the Woorabinda
Aboriginal Shire Council from the existing Fitzroy electorate; and
(b) parts of Central Highlands Regional Council and Barcaldine Regional
Council including Tieri, Capella, Clermont, Alpha, Jericho, Aramac and
Muttaburra from the existing Charters Towers electorate.”
Labor has traditionally just stood a Brisbane student with no chance of winning in the seat but this time with the Central Western coalfields included they might be tempted to run a serious campaign in the seat.
Lockyer, a seat that the Nationals almost lost at the last election is another seat that the electoral commission has made more marginal in my view. It was the target of the ‘Your Rights at Work’ campaign at the last election and Ian Rickuss could well be a National Party victim of changing demographics as the urban sprawl moves into what was once National Party heartland.
One final point concerning Glass House. Carolyn Male loses Australia Zoo to Caloundra and picks up huge tracts of toryville which will make life very difficult.
The Commission proposes to alter the boundaries of the existing electorate
by:
(a) expanding at its north to include Obi Obi, Eudlo, Flaxton, Hunchy,
Montville and Palmwoods from the existing electorate of Nicklin;
(b) expanding at its west to include the localities of Woodford, Mount Mee
and Neurum from the existing electorate of Nanango;
(c) expanding at its south-east to include parts of Elimbah and Donnybrook
from the existing Pumicestone electorate;
(d) transferring the area west of the Bruce Highway including Beerwah,
Landsborough and Mooloolah Valley to the proposed Caloundra
electorate; and
(e) transferring part of Caboolture and Bellmere north of the Caboolture
River to the proposed Pumicestone electorate.
The changes mostly hurt ALP marginals – Indooroopilly loses Toowong (with its uni students and relatively high green vote) and gets Liberal voting Sherwood in compensation. Aspley looses ALP voters in Strathpine and gets solid liberal votes from McDowall as compensation. Pumicestone sheds ALP voters to the New Seat of Morayfield and Barron River extends northward to include (Liberal voting) towns north of cairns, whilst losing ALP voting parts of cairns city. Mudgeeraba expands to take in strongly liberal voting parts of Robina and loses ALP voting parts of Nerang.
The ALP sees the seat of Fitzroy abolished and merged with NP held Mirani (essentially recreating the former marginal ALP electorate of Broadsound that existed prior to the 1992 redistribution) ALP voting Bowen is excised from Whitsunday (But moves to the marginal NP seat of Burdekin, creating problems for the Nats there) Cook extends to the Atherton Tablelands now – and is probably the obvious seat for one nations rosa Lee Long to contest, now that her own electorate has been abolished.
Dolly Pratt (IND) has her seat of Nanango expand dramatically – it takes in more NP voting towns, making life difficult for her, especially if Bjelke-Peterson jnr runs again.
For the Libs, Noosa is strengthened by the loss of coolum beach, Mermaid Beach is effectively a successor seat to Robina (and should be a comfortable hold). Caloundra loses some Liberal booths, but doesnt seem on balance to be effected. The only LP seat which is really negatively impacted is Clayfield (once the party’s safest brisbane electorate) , which expands further into ALP territory.
Of the three ‘completely new seats’ Sunnybank, Coomera and Buderim, The alP will win the first, whilst the Coalition should be favoured to win the last two.
253 Mudgeeraba is another difficult seat for Labor now with big chunks of Robina being moved there. Di Reilly, the ALP member will have a tougher job to win from here.
The Commission proposes to alter the existing district by the addition of part
of the suburb of Robina (including Robina Town Centre) bounded by the
Pacific Highway, Robina Parkway and Gooding Drive from the existing Robina
electorate.
To balance elector numbers in the electorate, the Commission proposes to
reunite parts of Highland Park and Worongary south of Alexander Drive within
the proposed Gaven electorate. Parts of Carrara and Nerang between the
Pacific Highway and Birmingham Road will also be transferred to the
proposed Gaven electorate.
In order to rectify a small anomaly, an area surrounding Chesterfield Drive in
Bonogin is to be transferred from the existing Currumbin electorate.
New thread up for the Queensland redistribution.
Regarding McEwen: the hearing has been adjourned.
New Morgan F2F poll (ALP/LNP)
Primary: 51.5/35
2PP: 60.5/39.5
http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4296/
New Morgan thread up, so I’m closing this one.