Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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Thomase @ 449 -
I doubt anyone has a problem with farmers, or anyone else that really needs one, having a 4WD. However, most are bought more for their pose value thyan any genuine need.
There are ways that farmers etc could get a rebate on any extra tax that the government might impose.
I know some people buy 4WDs because they believe they are safer. That apparently isn’t quite as clearcut as many believe. However, to the extent it is true, any additional protection in an accident is mostly gained at the expense of the other vehicle and its occupants. A large 4WD will destroy a smaller sedan and kill its occupants in an accident that they would survive if the other car was a regular sedan, though admittedly its occupants would likely suffer greater injury.
Even worse, many 4WDs are fitted with thumping great bull bars that add greatly to their lethality. I regularly come across one that has a bull bar the projecting top of which is at temple height for most people when seated in the average sedan. If it hit you in a side-on prang you’d have no hope even with side airbags.
I admit 4WDs are a bane of my life, especially in car parks.
And “Battling” Pensioners who need thm to tow their Caravans around the country living like Gypsies.
The channel 9 website is trying to make a big deal out of it (Oakes) with an ‘exclusive’ – leaked departmental memos recommending against the petrol watch scheme.
If it works in WA as they said on AM this morning that it did and produce about 2c liter lower cost on average in WA – how can they say the opposite? If that is the only factual data about the rest must be opinion.
The problem for the nay sayers is that it is anti-intuitive to say the scheme will increases costs instead of keep them lower than usual. At least people would assume at worst a neutral effect.
That is why this issue in itself wont bite with the electorate. Though I guess the whole big deal with Nelson and parts of the MSM is to be seen to making a stand, no matter how silly, as that will wins some votes over.
Once again it is crud about 4WD being in the luxury car class, how much for a Toyota Landcruiser Prado? Well if you want the “Sophisticated and stylish” or “Lavish and luxurious” yes you have to pay the tax. If you want “Understated elegance” there is one model that attracts the tax.
If you want “Performance and safety” or “Practical and purposeful” you do not pay luxury car tax.
http://www.toyota.com.au/toyota/vehicle/RangePage/0,5141,3865_582,00.html
hehehe I hate the @#^&# 4WDs too, I was only talking about debating style.
A farmer buying them would claim them as an expense, receiving back the GST and getting and being able to claim depreciation.
455
Probably claims the diesel fuel rebate as well.
If you want to know How fuelwatch works in WA, here is their FAQ page.
http://www.fuelwatch.wa.gov.au/misc/dsp_faq.cfm
MSM and politicians are going from one minor issue to another and it is distracting from the main issues of the budget. MSM may have contempt for the punters and think that blowing up a tiny issue will give it traction for Nelson, but hip pocket aware voters are going to say – this only saves me about $2/week, so what? And they stop listening “just a lot of pollies posturing on how much they care about people-BS!”. People are not as silly as they think.
The worst is it takes up valuable time in Parliament and Media that could be used to discuss the main features of the budget. What of nation building? – infrastructure, broadband, health, improving productivity thru removing blocks in infrastructure? The benefits from these will dwarf the petrol fiasco.
What about Climate Change – will it get attention when the final report is done? This issue must be the most important of this generation BUT THERE IS NO DEBATE!
Why cannot the budget be an opportunity to educate the people and get them to be involved in these issues? Why cannot our pathetic media play its part rather than worrying about piddling issues.
The true plot has been lost.
Landeryou, always entertaining in a strange way, has a bit of a go at Turnbull.
RICH AND THICK: Malcolm Turnbull Defends Child Porn
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/
I suspect a word below put my comment in the sin bin… try again.
Landeryou, always entertaining in a strange way, has a bit of a go at Turnbull.
RICH AND THICK: Malcolm Turnbull Defends Child P&orn
http://andrewlanderyou.blogspot.com/
I note with interest The Age, Mr. Rudd’s mouth piece, is not carrying the headline, “Rudd ignored FuelWatch price warnings.”
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=570866
I feel Rudd is just going through the motions waiting until the end of June when the Coalition become totaly irrelevent. They will be lame ducks in both houses then and I doubt if the government will even bother discussing anything with them. All the talking will be with the Greens, FF fella and the anti pokie chap.
Also the tax cuts and bonuses will kick in then as well.
I love how Kev isn’t playing the msm or opposition’s games,(and don’t they hate it) he remains quietly spoken,cool and calm as always. Refuses to give any oxygen to the fires Brenda and co are trying to light.
Oh I so love this line: “The leaked document shows the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet did not support a scheme based on the Western Australian model.”
Such ammunition!
I called it a few days ago petrol is going to be a big ticket item for the next couple of weeks as it heads for $1.70 + . The good Lord help us all.
12 and 13 year old kids should not be photographed in the buff. End of story.
Tell that to the parents who take “funny photos”
I wonder if the awful behavior of the LNP in parliament is trying to get Albanese/Govt to move that the member for north sydney be no longer be heard aka Abbott.
Yeah it’s pretty bad. Government’s should always listen to advice they’re offered… and the ACCC advice they’re supposedly relying on? It’s weak and not enough to counter the advice of a separate 4 departments.
It’d be better to do nothing than do something that will just cost money and still do nothing.
How old was Michaelangelo’s David?
All the more reason for the Govt to puts some early and deep focus on public transport development from their Infrastructure Australia fund. He made mention of if the other night.
467
That was a painting by a great artist not a sleazy photo that any sicko would be capable of snapping.
Kina, if you have any sway a metropolitan rail link around melbourne linking all the lines would be great for starters. Then a bullet train linking Geelong to Melbourne and Ballarat to Melbourne would be great, I think this would help creat larger regional centres which would ease the housing affordability crisis…. Hey what ever happened to that?
For roads a freeway linking the ring road with the eastern and newly developed scoresby freeway would be welcome.
Vera, David was a sculpture.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_%28Michelangelo%29
The Age is up to speed.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/pm-under-the-pump/2008/05/28/1211654116550.html
JoM
If you downloaded the pictures to your PC you would be committing a criminal act.
Painting, Sculpture etc. is fine. A photograph is not. I am an artist is not a defense.
He wasn’t a child John of Melbourne. The whole point of this art debate is that the paintings are not pornographic. It’s just hysteria.
Ruawake I confess I am not upto speed with the artist controversy, do you have a link?
Oh, for goodness sake, don’t start up on the Henson photos stuff. It’s a pseph site.
Senator Brandis says artists must act within the boundaries of the law.
“No artist has a carte blanche to say, ‘Because I’m an artist, I’m entitled to breach the criminal law in relation to matters like child p*rnography’,” he said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/28/2258174.htm
How about that one JoM?
The MSM and the liberal party just can’t understand how pathetic they have become!
On tonights channel 10 news, Ron Wilson was telling viewers where the cheapest petrol is here in Sydney. He has been doing it for years. Informing viewers where the cheapest petrol is in Sydney.
Fuelwatch will be doing what Ron has been doing for years but at a more informative, productive and practical way.
All you liberal supporters must be so proud of the cheap political point scoring, irresponsible policies of your mob!
Hang your heads in shame!
462
John of Melbourne, you may think it ripe pickings for an attack, but do you really think any Australian gov’t. has any real capacity to alter the price of oil? Like many others, I’m sick to death of the rubbish that goes on at the Federal level in politics. Tantrums, confected outrage, and the rest of it just infuriate me.
Turnbull, with his gratuitous comments, will be burning bridges with the cross-waving Exclusive Brethren-type fundies who are so critical to the Coalition vote.
Who should we really blame for higher petrol prices at the bowser?
Hmmm, Who introduced the GST? Who went to war in Iraq where oil prices have quadruppled since the invasion?
That’s right. The Dessicated Coconut.
So there Piers Akerman. You Dessicated Rice Bubble.
HSO
I agree, parliament has become a farce this week, the Libs and thier constant points of order, Wilson Tuckey gettin booted every other day.
I noticed The Speaker getting peeved today – warning members and naming Tuckey.
Rudd has tried to be Mr Nice guy, its about time he shafted a few PS Dept heads left over from Howard. Tuckey is in deep poo after refusing to apologise to the chair today.
Thanks Ruawake… tricky one.
Centre and HSO, Rudd went into the election giving the impression that he can help reduce the cost of living pressures on everyday working families, he is only being held up to the impression he gave to the community. You call it cheap political point scoring but when Rudd and Labor were doing it from opposition it was ok?
HSO, No the government does not have any real capacity to alter the price of oil but it can change laws, regulations and standards. It could begin by asking questions why diesel is dearer then unleaded seing as though it is cheaper to produce. The government can tell car makers that they will only be able to produce diesel running engines which are more fuel efficeint etc…
479
Interesting observation, Rx, particularly given the exit today of the so-called moderates, aligned with Nelson, from the N.S.W. Libs., leaving said party in the hands of the really, really neocon/fundie right. Looks more and more like disaster for the LNP to me, but hey, let’s try and crucify the gov’t about leaks from gov’t dep’ts, ESJ?
I’ll get back to you later, people. Dinner has landed.
No John of M, the Prime Minister said he will do as much as he can to lower petrol prices – at the margins. Everone knows petrol prices are largely determined by world oil prices.
The PM has done something, and is trying.
Coconut did – NOTHING!
John of Melbourne he did no such thing. He merely said that he understood cost of living pressures, unlike the Howard Government who said Australian’s had never been better off. It’s funny how they thought that then and now less than a year later suddenly Australians have never been worse off.
Centre, Who introduced the GST? The Australian people voted for it. Go on repeal it!
Who went to war in Iraq where oil prices have quadruppled since the invasion? So Iraq is the worlds no.1 oil producer?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_producing_countries#Production
487 So Iraq is the worlds no.1 oil producer?
Centre made no such claim, JoM.
LTEP, “He merely said that he understood cost of living pressures”
Well if he said he understands them what is he doing about them?
See he gave the impression he is here to help. Did he say that in a comercial… Hi I’m Kevin I’m here to help?
Lol, wait unitl the media hold him to ask about hospitals… Don’t forget the buck stops with him. I think that question will be asked in about a year or twos time.
No he said that to the party conference. I’m not sure anyone ever thought he would bring down petrol or grocery prices. But we still deserve better policy than the spin they’re giving us and something 4 departments have told them is a dog.
John of M,
Howard and that man of strength Costello LOL, introduced the GST – without majority of the total vote.
Iraq would have been in a position to make a greater contribution than it has.
LTEP, oh yeah thank you for jogging my memory it was at the party conference.
You said, “I’m not sure anyone ever thought he would bring down petrol or grocery prices.”
I was in Safeway (Woolworths) the other day and the cashier started talking to me about prices going up and up and she said, “we got this new guy, what is the government doing about it?”
This from Labor heartland Maribyrnong imagine the feelings in the mortgage belt.
Well I guess those people are just as stupid as anyone who believed Howard could keep interest rates low.
Looks like someone needs a quick fix.
Something approximating 6000 years of civilisation have passed and we’re expecting a fix to a global problem to be produced miraculously in the Australian parliament.
Give me a break.
Centre, Thank you Democrats.
“Iraq would have been in a position to make a greater contribution than it has.” You mean to say Iraq was producing more oil during the food for oil program?
JoM we are waiting with anticipation to hear what wisdom you imparted to the tory you attracted in Labor heartland Maribyrnong.
Onimod,
“Something approximating 6000 years of civilisation have passed and we’re expecting a fix to a global problem to be produced miraculously in the Australian parliament.”
Give me a break.
I feel the same way about global warming
Steve, sorry to disappoint but I just agreed and went on my way.
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