Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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Turnbull is actually being very smart. It is the small “l” liberals who the Liberal party has lost and it is the small “l” who are one’s defending the artist. Makes sense.
Also if anyone is interested here is the NSW Crimes Act on child pornography:
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/ca190082/s91h.html .
Section 4C would suggest that no actual crime has been committed, as distasteful some may find them.
J of M, right now demand is excessively outstripping supply. Iraq should have been in a position to supply far more than it has being the second richest oil nation in the world. But nooo, thanks to Howard and his pretend best mate Dubya.
JoM I thought you would have at least told her to watch Question time and seriously consider whether the performance of those on the left of the speaker are a rabble or…on second thoughts walking away probably is the best thing to do. Well done.
So government departments determine policy? Rubbish policy should be done by the executive. Although i do not think to much about the price watch scheme, i do think that it may have some impact on oil companies and their behaviour because it at least will be keeping them accountable, they are at least being watched.
Who is leading this carry on about the scheme and who hates it – no doubt oil companies. At least the government is trying things, but realistically it better start focusing on rail freight, public transport and public housing because these are areas which will help the affordability situation.
John you are kind of correct when you say what is he doing? Really what he is doing seems to be bandaid solutions.
However at least he cares the previous lot did not give a stuff and they wanted to cut workers wages and make the workers’ lives even harder and harsher.
On the Henson art, Rudd should have kept his mouth shut. Nonetheless i am still trying to work out what is Art? From what i have seen this to me is not art.
What is stopping me or anyone else from doing the same and saying this is art also.
Centre, I read in the Australian that its a buble.
From the sounds of silence it would appear that Iraq is doing better now. If Iraq can continue to be a stable democracy then yeah ha to Dubya!
489
John of Melbourne, I refer you to Possum’s piece on the Real Rudd Revealed. No matter how much Nelson does his faux compassion number, it isn’t believable, due to Nelson’s obvious proclivity to go where he thinks his bread will be better buttered. Don’t expect Rudd to do anything other than what he has done. Check out chicks in Maribyrnong are hardly a representative sample of the population, and I should know given where I live and work – Western Melbourne burbs – changing, and therein lies the rub. The perception being conveyed in the MSM seems to vary from the recent polling. Now the polling may be different next time around, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
What’s the point of asking the public service for advice if you’re not going to listen to it?
John did you tell the cashier that if Howard was still in government her penalty rates, long service leave entitlements, leave loading and a range of other benefits
would probably be under threat.
504
LTEP, because the purpose of having a public service is to proffer advice, and the purpose of having a government is to listen to the advice, weigh it, and make a decision for which you will be held accountable, whether you’ve got it wrong or right, or somewhat.
HSO what does changing mean?
LTEP, I suppose its to ask whether an idea has merit but cabinet also said it disagreed.
MM, No but I sure she would have been fairly compensated. Lol, Howard could have been still in office if he had only kept a safety net.
Yes John of M,
Do you know why Iraq is doing better now? Because we’re leaving. And when Barrack Obama becomes president, so will they.
LTEP
I’ll tell you something else. The public service can and do deliberately tell governments stuff that they want them to do, that they know is political suicide, they also provide advice out of their rear ends. I can personally think of one State gov’t dep’t. who is inhabitated by people who haven’t got a clue about the actual work that needs to be done. Mind you, that would happen under any Party. Perhaps there needs to be more attention paid to the role of the bureaucrats? I’m sure Rudd and his Ministers will be paying some attention to such things after the leaks to Channel 9 tonight
Centre, 300 are leaving 200 are staying how is that leaving?
If he becomes pres, bama will do no such thing he’ll weisel out of it by saying the Iraq government has asked us to stay
Howard would have abolished the “fairness test” if he had got back in. It was too troublesome to administer (tens of thousands of “agreements” were banking up because they had failed the test).
Then he would have gone much further with WorkChoices, perhaps abolishing awards entirely, the minimum wage, and holidays.
The checkout chick’s (especially people like checkout chicks) life would have taken a steep dive for the worse if the silvertail tories had been re-elected.
Rx well never know.
Iraq is a mess. It was an illegal war built on a lie and oil. Meanwhile over half a million of iraqs’ citizens are either dead, maimed or psychologically destroyed whilst troops go home destroyed mentally and physically causing fragmented families and greater costs on health and welfare departments. This was a no brainer of a war and today Iraq is going no where. Wars between factional groups, a people who suffer daily due to inadequate social and physical infrastructure.
In the late 80’s Iraq was one of best economic performers in the world but then America decided to pull the plug with sanctions and then eventually bomb the hell out of it and then invade- today it is a basket case. Just because iraq wished to stand up to America. Bush, Howard and Blair should be jail should be jail for this genocide and complete and utter disgrace which consequences will linger for several generations.
I agree with Socrates @ 381. From a policy perspective I hope the Government stands firm on petrol prices, or only gives away something symbolic. That’s not to say there won’t ever be a case for cushioning the blow of rising energy costs for battlers, but there must be better ways, surely.
From a political perspective as a supporter, I hope the Government stands firm too. It really does seem dumb for the Liberals to risk their economic credentials over this, as Laura Tingle seemed to be hinting last night on Agenda. It’s a real pity that half the press gallery currently seems to be cheering on a policy that, in the US, was pretty much roundly condemned by respectable opinion, even on the network news. But it’s very, very dangerous for the Coalition to think that that will be sufficient to overcome the long term damage.
Minchin did drop quite a few hints when he actually apologised that WorkChoices – already among the most extreme IR laws in the western world – did not go far enough.
The rodent is on the record as far back as the 1980s for wanting to attack the minimum wage. (This from a bloke who has never run a business OR worked a real job in his life). Costello likewise. In government they opposed every rise to the minimum wage … except after they’d imposed WorstChoices when it was politically expedient to support rises through gritted teeth.
The Coalition dirtbags were – and I believe still are – the greatest threat to living standards of workers in living memory.
Perhaps the bureaucrats are upset with the 2 percent budget cut.
What did Rudd say to the Chinese premier when he was in Beijing, “are you on Facebook?”
http://www.theage.com.au/news/web/grandpa-wen-shows-up-on-facebook/2008/05/28/1211654096729.html
Where is Corey when you need him
517
It is strange to see us behind the US on the stupidity of fuel excise, but I guess that’s where the MSM and the opposition are at at this point.
An excellent day for the OO. Headlines on front page:
Rudd twisted ACCC fuel advice: Opposition slams Labor ‘fraud’ after watchdog warned of petrol price rise. The day Nelson breaks through (Shamaham)
PM hits brakes on luxury car tax (Shamaham)
FuelWatch ‘benefits oil majors’ (Elizabeth Gosch)
Middle pages, ‘The Nation’:
Taxpayers foot bill for MPs’ carbon (Steve Creedy)
ANZ predicts two rate rises this year (David Uren)
Enough oil to last ‘for at least another 30 years’ (Siobhain Ryan)
Butler polishes silver-tongued Rudd’s cliches (Christian Kerr)
Taxpayer footing bill for valet, Liberals say (Patricia Karvelas)
No effort made to soothe Japan on visit (unattributed)
No letter of the law for PM’s ministers (Patricia Karvelas)
Nelson tells troops to be ready for early poll (Matthew Franklin)
Budget reforms to hit family trust members with tax fines (David Uren)
Salvos demand action on homelessness, not reviews (Stephen Lunn)
My favourite is ‘Nelson tells troops to be ready for early poll.’
I hope you only picked it up and scanned this rag, i for one do not read or buy a Murdoch paper it only encourages them to write rubbish and stay in print.
507
John of Melbourne, Have a look at the ABS site on the changing demographic. I think you’re in the same LGA as I am? Have a look at the real estate pages in the local rags. Despite the Western burbs of Melbourne being the immediate repository of the displaced of the world, and some of the most god awful housing I’ve ever seen in my life, somehow it still works. Badly at times, I’d grant you, and I have a necessarily skewed view, given the population I work with, but nevertheless, somehow or other, mostly, people work together here. Our back neighbours are dyed in the wool LNP voters, but we have a shared gate between our properties, so we can look after their dog and garden when they are away, and they look after our cat and garden when we are away.
522 the OO
what’s the bet the fuel companies have offered to pay for some advertising this week, but conveniently failed to submit the artwork.
“It’s okay – we’ll pay anyway. Our fault…”
522 Apres, that’s impressive, even for the OO. They must be really worried.
I’m not up with all the abreviations what does LGA and OO mean?
HSO may I ask what profession your in? I’m an engineer, went to school at St. Bernards
521 – Depressing isn’t it.
Another interesting thing Tingle sort of said last night was that Nelson is afraid of giving the Government double dissolution triggers on controversial issues. If Nelson is trying to avoid a double dissolution sometime next year full stop, he only gets one free go. Would he want to use it yet?
526 Harry
Sh*tting themselves, I reckon
526 HSO, this is probably revenge for the loss of Federal Government advertising dollars showered on the OO by the last Howard government and not continued this year.
You wonder if the Liberals have a mole in the public service?
The $64 question is: who is the leaker?
It’ll be a bad day tomorrow for Rudd Inc: wait for all the crowing from the MSM, doing their best to display their obvious anti-Labor bias.
There really have been some nasty leaks that sort of point to the public service in the last few months. Sometimes a bit of leaking doesn’t go astray (indeed, it can be a very good thing) but when it seems to be fed directly into the newscycle at a point most calculated to damage one side of politics, on a consistent basis, that really is a poor effort by those concerned if it was people in the public service.
I think that a confident prediction can be made that there will be far less leaking in future parliamentary sessions than there has been this session. Rudd would be implementing watertight changes to ensure the integrity of confidential cabinet papers by now. The Ferguson leak was a poor move because there won’t be any second chances given to get a hit on Rudd using that method.
Rudd made very few changes to the upper echelons of the Public Service compared to what incoming governments usually make, but if the leaks continue he will soon remedy the situation.
Is it beyond the realms of possibility that the leaker is Martin Ferguson?
Perhaps he’s been told Rudd will soon replace him in cabinet with Combet or Shorten or McKew, so it’s Martin’s revenge?
534 Progressive. No , it would be disgruntled tories trying to boost Nelson’s numbers for sure. It was not the gameplan to have him limping along this far behind the field. The only solution is to replace him but the Tories are incapable of making a good decision and sticking to it so hence diversions and theatrics are the only thing left to them while they refuse to deal with the problem.
A bit obvious isn’t it? Or is the obviousness the cover? But isn’t that a bit obvious?
The real story is going to become the leaking itself, not the content. The content is easily dealt with as Swan did tonight.
Where did all the ex Howard ministerial staffers end up? In London or in the Federal Public Service I’d guess.
Replacing Martin with Conroy? I think Conroy goes to Martin for advice and Martin does the same with Conroy and look what you get… Time to put McKew in Cabinet, more talent than Shorten, Conroy and Martin put together, oh i forgot she is unaligned, no hope now.
I doubt whether McKew’s unalignedness would be a permanent bar to her. That would be dumb if that’s what it actually came down to, and I don’t think Rudd’s dumb. But now’s not the time for a reshuffle. No-one’s making an obvious goose of themselves. Quite the contrary. A reshuffle would make it look like they were spooked by something, and I genuinely doubt they are that spooked. The polls show pretty clearly that they have no cause to be.
GG@426
“Fuelwatch is the current Government answer to being seen to do something on petrol prices. So it is good for the Government for it to be emphasised.”
Agree GG, all that happened the past 12 years was libs sat back and watch the market be dominated by 2 players, Fuel Watch helps the small players, their number has grown in WA since Fuel watch there.
The more publicity for petrol the better for the govt, highlights the inaction of the previous govt as they let the smaller operators be driven out by the big 2.
527
John of Melbourne, You’re an engineer and don’t know what a LGA is? What form of engineering are you in? A LGA is a Local Government Area. The OO is the Opposition Organ, formally known as “the Australian”. I’m a mental health clinician/manager, do both direct work with people and also manage $20 million plus budget and the management of same as required.
Not if you believe the crap in Today’s West.
http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=77&ContentID=75768
I think they have been spooked by petrol prices definately and Nelsons’ policy and this worries me. Rudd made a big mistake last week when he said we have done all we can to help people, a stupid comment which boxed him in regarding petrol prices.
His comments on the nude paintings were also stupid, he should have said nothing, instead he has alienated people and allowed others to take the moral ground.
530
Steve, Now there’s an interesting thought. Interesting to see how it plays out, though I suspect Rudd is a lot smarter than you’re average bear.
I doubt the Bill Henson business will damage Rudd in any way!
The general punter thinks the arts community are a bunch of toffee nosed bludgers!
1.3 million people are about to be re-located in China due to the formation of quake lakes and after shocks. Does this put petrol prices into perspective? That’s 1.3 million people. Got that?
546 I agree on the likely reaction to the Bill Henson thing. I actually agree with the PM on the merits though. I saw a big Henson exhibition a few years back that I’m pretty sure had some of the photos in question. I tend to agree that they should not have been shown. I usually come down on the side of free speech and free artistic expression, but this seems a little different somehow. I do, however, feel a bit sorry for the artist, at this stage anyway. I think a reasonable outcome would be that we have no more such exhibitions (with some clarity on what the boundaries are) but that we go easy on the artist in acknowledgement that, until now, the photos in question wouldn’t have struck a lot of people as obviously illegal (if that’s what they are under the relevant legal tests).
Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of the Henson business, I wish Rudd had let questions about it go through to the keeper. One of the many things that used to really annoy me about Howard was his commentary about everything and anything, particularly matters he quite obviously knew bugger all about. Fair dinkum, if a dog farted in Woop Woop he’d offer an opinion – after first making it very clear it wasn’t his job to give running commentaries.
He was right, it wasn’t. Nor is it Rudd’s. Especially when the law is already involved.
549 MayoFeral – hang on unlike Howard on many of these issues Rudd was shown the picture and asked for his opinion on a TV interview? He hadn’t seen it before. What was he supposed to do say no comment?
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