Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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549 agreed
He went part way to explaining the difference between his personal views and that of the government during Q&A, and yet goes straight back into confusing the population with his personal viewpoint, which is irrelevant in terms of real decision making.
He should have directed the question to the attorney general if there were legal implications he was aware of, or the arts minister if he was not.
He may well have couched the comment with the fact that it was his personal view [I'm too lazy to look] but the forum was one where he was representing the government.
Answering the question encourages the same innanity next time.
549 You’re right about shutting up when the law’s involved. This is actually a reasonably serious business, from a legal and a policy perspective, if it’s going to be sorted out properly. It needs some careful thought.
Erm, Molesworth and MayoFeral, did you notice my previous Post? Really, really big numbers of actual people are out on….nothing? One point three million people.
Oh, bugger, I might eventually get the hang of this posting business, though I doubt it. Probably best just to go back to being a lurker. Retires to middle distance. nighty night polllbludgers.
I did notice it HSO. I couldn’t really say much. The only good thing I can say is that I hope the (limited) media openness puts a little pressure on a few people to do a better job than usual responding to it.
#522 apres
The OO having a coordinated assault today on Rudd Labor. That level of undermining doesn’t happen by accident, only by design. So probably new instructions from above, but how high up? The old fecal Sun God or the fecal Editors in chief. Probably a Murdoch Troll given instructions to keep alive neocon politics in Australia, seeing that Nelson and his bunch of no hopers are in the process of destroying it. In any case nothing new there – the GG now OO didn’t get its nick name for nothing. Just a trashy paper with an array of trashy journalists.
Don’t buy it and don’t read it on-line. Only will read anything if there is a copy laying around in a cafe. But really it is useless except if you want read Nelson mind.
Why would anyone bother with the OO in anycase. If you are looking for decent analytical pieces with truth, context and fact you wont find too much in the OO. I think they as about lacking in talent and moral fibre as the Nelson Liberal party – I guess they mirror the Liberal party, hence their abysmal standards and denial of truth.
Honestly though, would any Liberal supporter want the current crew to win government? Can you imagine watch damage Minchin and Bishop would inflict on Australians! God forbid they get to implement their 1810s IR policies. Surly Liberal supporters would want the party to let some blood and reform itself properly?
The issue Henson is a non-issue for the general public. Rudd made a comment about it, the whole nation would understand where he was coming from and, no doubt support the notion generally naked photos of young pre-teen girls is on the wrong side of the ledger.
The fuel watch nonsense will be swamped by international goings on on oil prices. Nelson can block fuel watch if he wants but it aint going to sound good when election time comes around – a sound bite for Rudd on Nelson being friends of the oil companies and not wanting scrutiny of petrol pricing etc..
Wrong issue Brendan no matter if it gives you a few points in the polls for ’seemingly’ being in the fight for a change. He isn’t really of course, the media is just making out he is.
We are having a function this weekend to raise some money for the China relief effort…so if your in Darwin come to the Mall on Saturday.
It’s a good point Harry.
The scientific method is just catching on with the general population – we know how to get from the general to the detail.
Getting back up from the detail to the general is still a struggle.
What’s Paris Hilton up to today?
It is an unfortunate truth for China throughout its history that in having such a large population any disaster is going to be a big scale disaster. At least this time around they are a much richer country and hopefully more able to deal with their problems.
You will see below that in 1998 floods left 14 million homeless, 5 million houses destroyed.
1998
China suffered massive flooding concentrated in three areas during the 1998 summer: Along the Yangtze River in south central China; across extreme southern China in the area around the Gulf of Tonkin; and across the north near the former USSR border. The heaviest rainfall was reported at Qinzhou, with an incredible 68.28 inches of rain during the June-July period. According to official Chinese government reports, 3656 people have been killed by the floods, the second worst to hit the country in more than 130 years. Many observers believe the death toll is higher, although it is unlikely the casualty rate will reach 1954’s level of 30,000 dead. The floods have left 14 million people homeless, affected 240 million people, destroyed 5 million houses, damaged 12 million houses, flooded 25 million hectares of farmland, and caused over $20 billion ($US) in estimated damages.
If servos could drop their price would that make FW a tiny bit less marginal?
Cost of oil is going up, nothing much can be done about that in the short term, so Fuel Watch is practically useless but it may make people feel better.
Longer term, alternative energy/fuel, much better fuel efficinecies, public transport etc
need to allow Auslink to invest in public ransport.
555 Molesworth Good to know you’re out there. Again, night to all, don’t let the MSM bite.
Sniggle.
I have posted this some time in the past but it is quite relevant and important if it leads to commercially viable use. If it works out then you could have ugly ‘coal’ power with ZIF filtering and so on to reduce greenhouse gases and buy us some time on renewables etc.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/new-materials-can-selectively-45139.aspx
Well the Murdoch press is ready to declare that that their efforts this week have turned Rudd into a one term wonder. It appears Glen Milne the greatest political genius in Australia has won the day. Put down the binoculars the race for the next election is over. It is in black and white in the Courious Snail, so it must be true. I think the journalist is in need of a good holiday myself, he is suffering from Murdoch groupthink.
Link
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23776380-3102,00.html
The sky is falling! The sky is falling! All of us should now put up the white flag and give up.
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ 553 -
Yes, I had noticed, but what can you say? Shows just how little we really are in the scheme of things, despite our overinflated egos. Or maybe because of it.
However, the Chinese seem to be doing everything possible to look after the survivors.
Unfortunately, the 4 million or so homeless created by the very unnatural disaster we helped create in Iraq are getting no help or even consideration from us or the wider international community beyond the neighbouring countries that have taken many of them. And, moreover, have done so without building a single
psychological torture facilitydetention centre, or arm twisting poor island nations into doing the dirty work for them.The only (tenuously) related passion being generated here is over the building of a mosque!
565 Muskiemp, looks to me like a desperate rerun of the conservative budget bounce drama from last year which is still to materialise. I’m sure these journalists have no idea how odd their stories are.
Brendan has butted in on the scheduled government business in the House and moved a censure motion against Rudd. These sorts of interruptions by the Opposition are quite common first thing on Thursdays. Labor used to do it all the time. Usually it ends when the government moves that the member be “no longer heard” and after a few divisions, taking 10-15 minutes, government business resumes. But so far they are letting Nelson go.
I don’t understand the rules about these things. What’s to stop an Opposition member interrupting things and forcing divisions at any time, not just first thing in the morning?
Do they need to seek leave to move a censure motion?
I think I heard the Speaker ask if leave was granted and it was. IIRC, most of these interruptions are not censure motions. They are just Opposition members making statements attacking the government, and I don’t remember leave being necessary in those cases.
Triton, Rudd has just reversed it into a censure against Lord Nelson. The censure against Nelson will be the one that succeeds.
Well the Government obviously doesn’t mind their business being disrupted otherwise they’d deny leave and go through the much lesser hassle of having a debate on the suspension of standing orders.
As for the other times when Opposition members get up and speak to attack the Government I assume that’s during allotted times of the day where they are allowed to, on notice (for instance MPIs etc.). Any of those can be sped up by moving a closure if the Government really wants to.
The truth is that despite what the Opposition and Murdoch Press have been frothing at the mouth about all week, the government wants to thrash out the Petrol price issue this week. It is the Government who sets the agenda and this is their agenda.
You’d imagine their agenda would be of a more legislative kind.
It is exactly that and the Opposition is determined to oppose and vote against it in the Senate. It is the first step towards rounding the opposition up for a double dissolution down the track.
Well, this is going to take at least an hour out of the day’s proceedings. Really it’s a waste of time. We aren’t hearing anything new.
These sorts of motions usually occur after Question Time, so I wonder what Nelson has planned for this afternoon.
On the interminable fuel debate, Graeme Samuel essentially supported the government position on radio this morning and contradicted the Opposition, yet as I write this Turnbull is still rabbiting on about the ACCC report.
576 “On the interminable fuel debate”
Triton, you aint seen nothin yet.
Here is the process for the Fuelwatch legislation.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s57.html
This Time article puts our petrol/diesel prices in perspective. The Europeans are paying between AU$2.20 – 2.60/L. Note in particular the amount of tax they pay on fuel. Our government is almost Santa Clausish in comparison.
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1809900,00.html
In comparison, today’s SYDNEY MORNING HERALD was more interested in Qantas/row over the Islamic school in Camden/Bill Henson/N.S.W Liberal Party disintergration!
As for Milne, he’s been a Coalition cheerleader for a while. Is his wife still working for Crosby/Textor?
#577 steve
You could be right. I’m sure they’d like a trigger for a DD, just in case they want to use it, but I think it would be a hard sell for Rudd that this issue is worth an election. I think they’d need something more important and add Fuelwatch as an extra just to strengthen their case.
And for all the supposed media outrage and posturing from Nelson, I’ve got a funny feeling the next Newspoll will show Rudd’s ratings going up.
This is all just very minor fiddling at the margins!
That Nelson does go over the top! Tarago with weelchair & five kids, FFS!
Governments tend to stack these things up to stretch the opposition and make them look totally incompetent by the time the time the double Dissolution is announced. They will do the same thing with forcing the Opposition to vote against improving grocery prices and interest rates too. It all adds up to making the Opposition totally inept and unable to handle the fury being directed at their offices.
The Deputy Treasurer just gave out the email addresses of Nelson and Turnbull for people to direct complaints about petrol prices. The staff in opposition offices haven’t got the resources of Government and will find it difficult to handle the responses. Once half a dozen major issues are opened up against them their life will be a nightmare.
I suppose this censure debate will end sometime today?
Nelson will completely make a dogs breakfast out of this: not even the cheerleading from Shamaham and the Poisoned Dwarf can save the toff from Bradfield.
Steve: I think Chris Bowen is good value, enjoying watching the bloke in parliament.
The Opposition Orifice and now the Curious Snail in on the act? What planet is Porteous from, what dimension? Govt and PM support at near record levels and he talks about a one term govt?
OK I get it, the whole point is try and sell a lie to the public, that the govt is struggling. Try to create the impression that the govt is not up to scratch.
You have to have some pitty on Milne, the same sort of pitty that Gollum generated, a poor sick creature unaware of how detestable he had become in the sight of man. He has attached is flag to another bunch of losers – seems Milne is set to always be the loser in life.
It won’t be the last time News Ltd hacks end up with egg on their faces.
when i watched question time yesterday i was thinking of one thing – b in p and ps bring it on (substantially influenced by my daughter though…)
586
I reckon he’s all right too.
I was thinking about the pluses and minus for both teams on this issue.
It’s allowed Chris Bowen and Mar’n to both get up on stage and they haven’t faulted.
Does it allow any moles to be uncovered on an issue that surely won’t raise an eyebrow come the next election?
If Wong & co. have some really big ammunition to fire at the carbon industry later this year, it does give a bit of a clue as to how the fight will be fought, and who is in who’s pocket – even if it’s troops on your ‘own side’.
Does it paint a pattern on the MSM?
Maybe Rudd is prepared to be a one-termer, so long as they get hold of the Senate at the end of it. I can’t see the Australian population letting the LP get control of both houses for some time, no matter how bad Rudd travels.
This is a great version of a good censure debate.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKN4qWo7×1Y
steve, how relevant is a DD trigger now anyway with the current Senate consigned to the dustbin in about a month? It would have to be the new Senate that won’t pass the bill, and I’d say that’s unknown at this stage.
Labor will want to eventually win the upper house in it’s own right rather than have to depend on the whim of various groupings of small parties and independents I’d assume.
Yes, but they won’t be able to justify a DD election because of anything this Senate does. They’ll need the new Senate to obstruct its program.
steve Labor will never win the Senate in its own right. A double dissolution would put their own senators and senators from the Coalition at risk and increase the number of independants’ and minor party senators which is why we haven’t had one since 1987.
It is all bad news for the Liberals though because oppositions quickly get the reputations of carping whingers who oppose just for opposition sake. You said earlier, Triton that you were getting tired of the “interminable fuel debate”, well how silly is it going to look when the opposition are prepared to debate this for months on end and achieve nothing for all their months of hot air. In the end the voting public will turf them out as being obstructionist vandals who are unable to let the country progress.
LTEP, I’d see a double dissolution as favouring the Government and minor parties. Losses would be largely on the conservative side.
Well, this censure motion is certainly a stark illustration of the interminability of the fuel debate. It’s still going.
The public will want a resolution and when it drags on for months when it could have been over in a couple of days that is when they will look at where the hold up is and come up with the answer the Tories could have passed it whenever they wanted to do so.
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