Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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steve I think the highest number of senators Labor have ever won is 34 (in 1985, after the 1984 election). They’d need to win 39 to have a majority in their own right which is 5 more than they have ever got. I think it’s likely they’ll match or slightly edge up their record at the next election but it’s unlikely they’ll even get to 38, let alone 39.
http://www.aph.gov.au/library/handbook/historical/representation.htm
594
steve
We just had a precedent that control of both houses can be deadly to the majority party.
I would not mind if Labor had to do negotiations and debate to get major bills through. Rather not have Labor just pushing Bills nilly willy through the Senate!!
WTF is Bronwyn Bishop wearing?
Steve, Rudd has said there won’t be an election until 2 1/2 yrs time. If there was a DD the opposition rabble would look like they’d had a win and would say Rudd couldn’t govern. That is why lLbs are desperately making so much noise now because they know their time is running out fast and come July they’ll have no power and won’t be able to get all hairy chested threatening to block everything that goes to the senate. They will be LAME DUCKS and how that hurts!
After June Fuel Watch will pass through the senate. I read somewhere that all minor parties will pass it so long as it dosen’t disadvantage motorists, which it wont.
here is a good balanced article that answers most questions people would be asking.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/fuel-for-thought-20080528-2j3c.html
The government might be doing well, winning all the debates on rational grounds and doing what is right and proper but part of the media is trying to paint the opposite picture.
Howard didn’t give these guys more generous media ownership laws before the last election for no reason. He knew these guys are mostly right wing and will run a right wing line – otherwise there is no way he would have given them more. Howard never did anything without a self interest reason being paramount, as Dr Hewson.
I had the opportunity to listen to and then watch Parliament the last few days. The government did quite well the opposition were terrible, but you would not know from the media.
Vera, good article but would the minor parties bother to just pass government Bills when the system gives them a huge advantage via the Double Dissolution process. I am not at all confident that they will necessarily not have one eye on improving their position at the expense of the conservatives.
The Government will need to be more precise in the questions it asks of the PS. No doubt there are some Howard lovers in their ranks all too willing to produce reports that counter whatever they think is advantageous to the government.
Might be time to shuffle them around and put the known Howard supporters into jobs that produce nothing for external consumption.
Steve at 464, poor Milne has apparently forgotten to look at the opinion polls for the past six months
Kina, as far as I’m concerned the Government has not ‘won the debate on all rational grounds’. I think the reason they’ve chosen the Fuel Watch scheme is because they want to be ’seen’ to be doing something about petrol prices, when in reality they have received advice from 4 separate departments which says the effect will be either negligible or could even send prices up (unlikely… but possible I’d imagine).
It’s still a better idea than cutting the excise though, which is stupid on so many grounds.
Apres at 522, my commiserations for you having to read the OO. Dont bother, no-one else does
I think it is dawning on the LNP and its concerned supporters that 6 months in and there is still no sign they can improve their position before the next election. In fact they are probably terrified given Rudd’s long term popularity that they might never be able to make significant inroads.
Hence the sudden flurry of anti-government activity in the media coordinated with the Nelson nonsense on the tivial issue of a fuel watch scheme and, alcopops. They are desperate to avoid total destruction at the next election.
These people are fighting to gaurd against being left with 20 seats in the house after the next election.
607 Andrew, Milne doesn’t have to read the opinion polls he is a political genius and strategist without peer as far as he is concerned. The day after the last Federal election he logged the prices of fuel, groceries and interest rates and mapped out a plan that once the budget was bought down Nelson would shoot ahead and stay there. The rest of the Murdoch press is following the advice of the guru and trying to make the Nelson ‘Budget Bounce theory according to Milne’ a self fulfilling prophecy.
It didn’t work last year when the Tories were in power and there is no evidence it will work for Milne or the Tories this year either.
Vera – that Tim Colebatch article is great.
LTEP – apparently the ACCC document that’s due out today made it a hands down decision in favour of fuel watch. Chris Bowen has been quite convincing on that. It’ll be an interesting read. There are so many flaws in the way the current data of averages is being presented that its’ a bit like talking about MOE errors being movement. Specific small results require specific data – it’s just not black and white enough for anyone to really know what is going on at present.
I think the WA experience is the clue though – if the consumers feel empowered that’s great, and if it raises the failings of the Australian car based culture along the way then I’m all for it.
Long term it may also reveal a bit more to the public about the way the oil industry might, or might not, be manipulating the market, which again gives the government triggers to act.
The main argument seems to be on two fronts – that prices will rise, or that the money is wasted. First the amount of money is chickenfeed in the budget and the potential rise? Let’s wait for the ACCC report.
This whole argument is along the same lines as the Medicare rebate – anyone remember that issue? We have a major entrenched industry arguing it’s point against the government through a third party – the opposition. If they they were sure they were on the moral high ground the oil industry could have been spending millions in fighting directly, but have instead tried an each way bet through the opposition.
Rudd alluded to it yesterday with the mention of big oil in Q-time. Everyone knows it, but no-one can say it.
People like Milne forget one thing, the present situation (leaks) and issues such as Fuelwatch, will not be part of the next election campaign. Hell, Nelson himself may very well not be in his present guise. To talk about a one term government now is pure folly mixed up with a very Liberal (pun intended) dose of bias.
If the Libs do not get some substantial bounce in the next round or two of polls Nelson will be done for.
612 Onimod. Is this the ACCC document that you were looking for?
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/806216
Putting aside the predictable excitement in the conservative media and opposition, I dont think Rudd has played this issue well. It was stupid to say he had done all he could, even if it was twisted, and not retract it later. The FuelWatch issue is a fraught one, but he hasnt convincingly made the case.
I wont worry though, he is miles ahead, and these sorts of bumps are part of the game. And if it keeps Nelson around longer, it has all been worth it!
If this quote from chapter 15 doesn’t support Fuelwatch then I don’t know what will.
“Enhanced price transparency is more likely to benefit consumers the more it is aimed at improving buyer information and options relative to seller information and options.
The main evidence of price transparency for petrol consumers in Australia appears to be the prevalence of large headboard signage with each retailer proclaiming their current price. However, the existence of petrol price volatility and weekly cycles makes this prominent signage less of a sign of transparency than it would be in markets with more stable prices.
This volatility makes it difficult to know how the signboard price will compare with other retailers in the area, or how it will compare with the same retailer later that day or week.
Comparative current price level information is more important due to the high price volatility and is much more difficult for the consumer to get.”
This bit from Chapter fifteen is what Rudd was on about earlier in the week.
“The main finding from this econometric analysis is that the average of the price margin reduced by a statistically significant amount for Perth relative to the eastern capitals in the time since the introduction of FuelWatch. The relevant weekly average price margin was around 1.9 cpl less on average for the
period from January 2001 to June 2007 than for the period from August 1998 to December 2000.”
The censure debate is over.
The media will have their collective eyes fixed firmly on the Liberal leadership well before the next election. Nothing loses votes more than inhouse fighting for the leader’s job.
Anyone noticed the latest Sky Noos poll? The Libs are working overtime.
Steve 605
I don’t know if the Minor parties & Independants would risk going the same way as the Democrats. When they cosied up to Howard and passed the GST they cut their own throats. Would the minor parties be happy to be seen as having the desire to bring down a labor government and return the libs?
Imagine the add campaigne Labor would launch against minor parties. Stuff like budget blow out funding election causing inflation to rise, and the end of all Labors health, education and nation building plans. 7 months worjk wasted. They would also be accused of being in bed with the coalition and risking the return of workchoices.
615 steve
No.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/accc-to-release-modelling-on-fuelwatch-20080529-2j6l.html
new information only cabinet has been privy to thus far.
It’s presumably the same information Bowen offered briefings to in Q-time yesterday that the opposition wasn’t interested in…
gary
sky polls the day before election had Libs winning and Ratty miles ahead of Kev as preferred PM LOL
If Nelson and the LNP don’t get a tangible poll bounce out of these series of free gifts from murdoch and co then they should rename themselves the vasectomy party.
My argument exactly vera which makes them more likely to actually act in favour of causing a Double dissolution which in all probability makes them get more members in the senate at the double dissolution as they too would attack the conservatives once the Double Dissolution was called, as this is the most likely place for votes to come from for them.
622 Onimod, I do believe that the modelling is the subject of chapter 15. Might not be but sounds like it to me.
Could it all be a cunning stunt by Kev to get Labor’s fuel watch back on the front page?
think about it, all last week msm were full of Brenas’s 5c cut, (trying to get his PPM rating out of single digits) Fuel watch was getting no air.
Now that the attention is back on it Kev gets to release the ACCI modelling which will get airplay in prime time news! And also will show up the opposition’s lies.
It’s no stunt. They just need to counter the leaks in some way.
627 vera
Does it have to make tonight’s news, or is it better to deliver a weekend blitz?
I think failing to end the week with a bang would be a mistake.
LTEP
I’m not so sure – why is the main argument still under wraps?
Sure – it’s not going exactly to plan, but planning for perfection is folly anyway.
Onimod, I’m sure that as both sides aware that Newspoll will be taken this weekend there will be plenty of shock and horror stories generated tomorrow for the weekend papers.
onimod
dunno? how about a bit of airplay on the news AND a blitz.
626 Steve
Bowen talks about it at the start of the transcript from Lateline last night:
http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2007/s2258351.htm
There’s the original modelling and then there was further work as I understand it. Chris Bowen has nailed all of his Cabinet colleagues to the wall and no-one has said boo thus far (unless you think the leaker was a minister).
Just their general demeanour suggest that they’re happy to let him run with this one. It stinks of holding back the ace to me.
I really don’t believe this will do any long term damage as long as they can fix the leaks. Better for all of this to happen now rather than in 2 1/2 year’s time.
Dennis has really shown us his true colours, as if we didn’t already know. The term “over the top” springs to mind.
The one thing that keeps going through my mind is how little effect the MSM had on the last election result. Also why would people turn on a government that firstly is prepared to do something about petrol and secondly wants to make the petrol situation more open and transparent?
Kevin Andrews in the Chair? That’s a new one to me. I wonder if they can persuade the honourable member for Higgins or Mayo to have a go.
Mike Steketee makes sense
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mikesteketee/index.php/theaustralian/comments/green_road_all_but_ignored/
Steketee and Megalogenis about the only decent journalists the Oz has got.
The MSM had little effect on Rudd Labor prior to the election because the population had already switched off to Howard and were looking for or were happy to have a change.
The LNP horrible polls so far have been a reflection of their total invisibility and lack of credibility in opposition to Rudd doing all the things he had promised. They are making a lot of noise at the moment, useless noise but noise all the same and, the MSM is doing everything it can to make it seem they are doing well and Rudd badly. Thus some soft voters might come back to the fold simply because they seem to be some sort of opposition now even though the matters are minor ones.
The interesting question for me is what will be the value of incumbency to Labor at the next election. We saw Howard get a swing back to him closer to the election and maybe people a bit nervous about changing from what they knew.
Surely the LNP will need to get Labor down below their election result if incumbency means a little swing back to the government at the last moment.
637 Kina – nothing stays the same over 2 1/2 years. There will be swings and roundabouts.
I notice with interest that Sam Newman is on the front of the Herald Sun and nothing else.
Rudd has many strings to pluck yet. If he plucks the right ones (I’m confident he will) he is home and hosed.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/29/2259298.htm
Looks like Rudd has called the elephant to come out from behind the curtain:
From the linked article:
At a press conference, Mr Rudd said the debate on petrol was a global one.
He said the Government always knew and accepted that the issue of fuel prices would be a contentious debate.
“We fully embrace the difference of opinion within the Government,” Mr Rudd said.
“We believe in having the debate, resolving it and getting on with the business.
“There is a clear choice. Either you vote for the consumer or you vote for a cosy deal with big oil companies.”
He said he was absolutely confident that no one within the Cabinet had been the source of yesterday’s leak.
The very fact that opposition questions are about Fuel and the Government dixers are about fuel prove that the Government is in control. They would be asking dixers about anything but fuel if the Murdoch press fantasy was true.
On the fuel issue, I thought that the best article in today’s paper was by Kenneth Davidson in The Age
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/fuel-price-debate-ignores-real-issue-20080528-2j2h.html
Rightly, this article is not flattering to either Labor or Liberal. It also gives the lie to the complaints about hurting families from fuel prices. No doubt some are, but Davidson shows that it is all quite exaggerated. As I have previously said, the budget was good overall but transport reform was the area I was most dissappointed in. I have no objection to Fuelwatch but in the end it makes little more difference than the 5 cent tax cut nonsense. Thus on this issue I’d give Nelson 1 out of 10, Swan 5 out of 10 and Rudd 3 out of 10 (for the stupid GST fuel suggestion). None of the policies stated to date will solve the problem.
Nice comeback by Rudd. Nelson asked him if he would rule out a cut in fuel excise. Rudd asked Nelson if he would rule in a cut.
642 indeed – good article
Hahaha – J Bishop just got her own arse handed to her.
She prance around like a royal corgie and Swan sat her down with a one word answer – “yes”.
My other half refers to her a s a ‘clothes horse’.
Ah – Nicola Roxon has just tied fuel and alcopops together and pointed out how the opposition is just toeing the established industry line on both issues.
The government needs to push cars as fuel efficient this…………… Peugeot has claimed two new fuel economy world records set here in Australia according to the Guinness Book of World Records after one of its production cars completed a lap of the country on less than eight re-fills of fuel.
The car was a standard 307 HDI turbo-diesel wagon driven by fuel economy expert John Taylor who averaged an amazing 3.49 litres per 100 kilometres (or 81.16 mpg) over the 14,634 kilometre journey at a total fuel cost of $540.53.Here is the link to the story…http://motormouth.com.au/myresources/alternatefuelsarticle.aspx?article=200406_record
I don’t work or have any association with Peugeot, it’s just an example of what is out there.Now if govts…State and Federal offer incentives,tax breaks, cheaper rego etc for the populace to buy these sorts of cars then the sting in the rise of oil is lessened.
For me the telling line from the article is………………”after he drove from Melbourne to Rockhampton on a single tank of diesel in a showroom-spec 406 family sedan in 2002 over a distance of 2348 kilometres using less than 70 litres.”
These are the sorts of mileage figures that should be mandatory for family cars.I know Mr Rudd proposed a $500M scheme for car manufacturers in Australia for the Research and development for hybrids……It may need a partnership between govt and industry to make it happen ssoner rather than later.
At a press conference, Mr Rudd said the debate on petrol was a global one.
snip
“There is a clear choice. Either you vote for the consumer or you vote for a cosy deal with big oil companies.”
Earlier today I heard ACCC boss Graeme Samuel saying that the oil companies and Coles and Woolies are dead against Fuelwatch and will do everything they can to stop it. Which could be a very big stick to beat the opposition with by painting them as tools of the vested interests. Wonder if Rudd was thinking the same thing when he saying the above?
Possum has done some analysis of the results of the fuel watch system in WA and has some nice graphs up which the Opposition would find slightly embarrassing in relation to their current position on this matter.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/
#645 onimod
Yes, that was nicely done. I’ve been a Roxon fan, if I can put it that way, since the horrible beating she gave Tony Abbott over his no-show during the campaign.
Turnbull comes in with a smart alec question “If the PM lacks confidence in departmental advice why appoint Ken Henry as head of the tax review.” Rudd’s reply was to quote Costello, when he was treasurer, as saying the ACCC new more than any other agency re petrol. Beautiful.
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