Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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onimod
here’s a picture of Julie (mad cow)Bishop for you
http://ambushadventuresports.com/madcow/madcow2.gif
Hahhahah Dutton just asks a minister to release a cabinet document. He obviously didn’t study politics at high school
Showson, that would have to be the silliest question ever asked in the Parliament this year. He obviously has no idea as to why stupid questions are detrimental to the opposition cause on every level.
Socrates @ 642 Thanks for linking Kenneth Davidson’s article. It is the people on the fringes of our major cities who need better public transport options. Mr. Rudd and his government can play a part in that but we need more effort and foresight at state government level.
Now the Queensland Liberal leader Mark McArdle has contadicted the Federal Liberal position on Fuelwatch.
654 David – spot on and they need to get to work on it.
The opposition has no idea how to hprase a question and they don’t really know what they’re trying to uncover. All of their questions are delivered on the assumption they know what the answer is but don’t expect that answer is going to be voiced. What is the point? They are getting more and more detailed and further away from a question that sums up their arguments.
It gives every impression of a recently beheaded chook being in charge.
Tuckey’s removal is being dealt with now. No further action to be taken for his outburst yesterday.
Albanese has just had a massive laugh at the opposition as the mover of a proposed amendment has not bothered to be in the house.
Headless chooks. Unbelievable.
An opposition MPI has lapsed in the House due to the absence of its
sponsor. It’d be funny if… well it *is* funny.
Onimond, it was actually a major debate called ‘A Matter of Public Importance’. It is the job of the whip to ensure that members are in the house when needed. It is the first time in my life I have seen a MPA lapse because the member who proposed the MPA absented himself from the house. The Opposition has no idea.
What a tame QT. The Libs had all the ammunition in the world and fired off none. Even following question time they couldn’t get ther act together. One of their members was to speak on the governments failure to act on governments advice. This member had left the chamber so this discussion failed to get off the ground. The last member seen leaving the parliament with his tail between his legs was Hockey.
MPI -of course.
Now the member for Groom was caught napping.
Maybe the Opposition whips are asleep.
Poor old Brenda all puffed up and ready for his MPI rant and the member for Stirling forgets to be in the house.
I bet Keenan is getting a bollocking already – or maybe he has already run away back home.
Ha HA ha. Pathetic,
David Charles 654
Agreed but the Federal funding rules for AusLink are a large part of the problem. They not only tie the Federal money to urban freeways (none for urban PT) but by requiring matching State spending they effectively tie the State money up too. Thus there are only two States doing anythign serious about PT capacity – the ones with spare cash via mining royalties, Qld and WA. SA and VIC are at least trying to maintin or marginally upgrade their systems with the (limited) budgets they have. I won’t pretend to defend Sydney rail, which IMO is a national disgrace.
The Government was going to gag it anyway. But still, it kind of looks bad when you don’t bother turning up.
I laughed out loud when Swan mentioned today that Turnball hadn’t even read the ACCC report he was trashing – LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL
Have pity on the opposition whip. His job would be like herding
cats (a clutter of cats, perhaps, or mayme a nuisance of cats).
Maybe the Hon Member for Stirling thought better and went home LOL
Queensland has been disadvantaged by Auslink funding under the Howard government who would only fund about 40% and leave the states to finance the rest. It needs to get back to a 50/50 funding arrangement.
Fair enough. A bit less humorous then.
What a rabble they are. This was meant to be Brenda’s big day, and his lot blew it! I’d say a clear points win to Rudd/Swan/Bowen!
Shanahan and the Poisoned Dwarf won’t be happy!
668 Probably caught the flight home with Ironbar Tuckey.
ShowsOn
The Govt does not gag MPIs. Occasionally previous speakers have allowed the MPI debate to be on a subject proposed by the Govt. but it is never gagged.
The disgraceful heckling and jeering: obviously civility was never taught at the tory bullies’ private schools.
I think Rudd has handled this leak well over the day. Saying the ACCC are an important part of the Treasurer’s department brings it into context. The leak needs fixing though.
Steve: Michael Keenan and Wilson Tuckey, that’s some twosome.
It makes you wonder what other thing could leak out.
Well parliament is only sitting till 5.00pm. What time did the flight to Perth leave.
Rx: The Libs have this born to rule mentality, it must be surely a mistake that they have to be in opposition LOL
Gary: Am I correct Rudd left a lot of the previous public service mandarins in their jobs? There’s bound to be more than one Liberal in there, who wants to prop up Nelson.
Well, it wasn’t going to go ahead. Albanese said so just before the start of Question Time. He said that it could happen after the Government introduced ~15 bills. By the time that happens the adjournment debate would have to start.
Steve: I’m guessing all the WA MPs would be on the same flight, Liberal & Labor.
682 Only if the Liberals don’t fall asleep and fail to show up on time.
Progressive@680
Yes you’re right. I said at the time he should’ve axed a lot of them and that if he didn’t he was risking leaks. It was and is stupid to allow obvious party stooges to remain as department heads.
The reasoning behind Rudd’s decision to leave many of the ex-Howard staffers in their positions is apparently that he will keep them so busy they won’t have time to help out the Liebrals.
Rx – If that is as good as it gets when the Liberals have been helped out with leaks, then God help them if the leaking stops.
LTEP: Good to see you back on the board!
Yeah, I’m far more interested in who is doing the leaking than the endless argument about the merits or otherwise of Fuelwatch!
Steve: My good mate, we can laugh about WA Liberals, but remember that there are far more of em than Labor MPs(only 4 in the HOR). One would expect the balance is redressed in 2010/2011
Steve, since they have fired all their ammo on the first day, all they have left now is bluster – they have plenty of that, the bigmouth bullies – and faux concern for people “doing it tough” (Let them eat cake).
PROPOSED DISCUSSION OF MATTER OF PUBLIC IMPORTANCE—FUELWATCH
The House was informed that Mr Keenan, 3:27:05 PM, had proposed that a definite matter of public importance be submitted to the House for discussion, namely, “The failure of the Government to heed departmental advice with regard to Fuelwatch”.
The proposed discussion having received the necessary support—
Due to the absence of the proposer, the matter lapsed.
http://www.aph.gov.au/house/info/liveminutes/index.htm
If Keenan had been in Parliament the MPI would have gone ahead. If Albanese had tried to stop the MPI the Libs would be screaming blue murder. Did you see the steam coming out of Brenda’s ears? If there was not going to be an MPI he would have already left the chamber.
Progressive, the federal Fiberals would have to feel pretty exposed on FuelWatch about now. Given that the scheme was introduced by a a WA Liberal government and is now being defended by the leader of the Qld Libs. LOL
ACCC issues details of further fuelwatch econometric analysis:
http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/829429/fromItemId/142
quotes:
Further econometric tests undertaken
The ACCC also undertook further econometric analysis to take account of price effects on different days of the week. In particular the ACCC wanted to check that consumer who benefit from the price cycle by buying on the lowest price day each week would not be harmed by the introduction of the Fuelwatch system.
The ACCC looked at price changes for the lowest price day of the week, the highest price day of the week and for the remaining five days of the week. The ACCC’s analysis showed that:
* prices decreased an average of 3.5cpl for the highest price day of the week and
* prices decreased an average of 0.7 cpl for the lowest price day of the week and
* prices decreased an average of 1.8 cpl for the remaining middle five days of the week.
This analysis confirmed that the overall price reductions indicated by the inquiry analysis were not isolated to certain times of the week.
Conclusion
The purpose of this econometric analysis has been to satisfy the ACCC that the introduction of a Fuelwatch scheme nationally would not, based on the experience in Western Australia, lead to consumers paying higher prices for petrol.
From the econometric analysis, on a conservative basis, the ACCC can say that there is no evidence that the introduction of Fuelwatch in Western Australia led to any increase in prices and it appears to have resulted in a small price decrease overall.
659 steve
thanks – my ears only pricked up when i head Albanese’s huge laugh.
if you turned up to an occasion you’d know wether he was present or not within seconds.
I said last night that the was either born to be a whip or a deputy principle.
Turnbull on Agenda about the ACCC modelling:
“Where’s the Excel spreadsheet?”!
heh!
Mal might know how to make a buck, but he knows three fifths of five eights of sweet f*ck all about economics if he thinks anything like this is done in an Excel spreadsheet.
Possum, he’d probably get that calculation wrong as well …
693
Don’t tell me he’s going to insinuate that the ACCC has made it up?
Seriously.
I just can’t imagine being a patient of that guy.
On making a buck – I think I’ve said it here before – I have relative who makes a good buck in Mal’s former business who I doubt can even tie his own shoes.
695
err – patient – I meant Nelson
Allbull – I don’t know what he’s good for either – perhaps cruise ship captain?
Does Morgan take in Thursdays?
Swan says leaks will be investigated.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23773544-953,00.html
Sometimes Gary
699 Possum Comitatus – Thanks Possum
I didn’t watch Agenda but I bet they’ve written off the government already.
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