Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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I’ve yet to see Gerard McManus write anything positive about Rudd. I’ve got his e-mail address at the Hun, I think he needs a blast. He usually replies too.
Centre is a bit pissed off I’d say
Seems there is some problem with budget proposals in the Solar Industry according to the Curious Snail.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23778431-5003402,00.html
I think the opposition is losing the argument for one important reason. Once Fuel Watch comes in, does anyone honestly think the Liberals will go to the next election promising to repeal it?
Centre, for my own fury can I say I would have to write a book on the media – any takers? of headlines versus reality?? yeah ritght
Or will the WA Liberals promise to do it at the upcoming State Election – considering they introduced it at the start of this decade
I just wish the media could be somehow held to account.
752,
Over what?
Centre @ 758 Sorry, sorry – misconstrued exuberance with pissofidness
Here’s the 7.30 report transcript:
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2007/s2259726.htm
From the 7.30 Report transcript.
DAVID MOIR: I think it’s very unfortunate that FuelWatch has become a political football. FuelWatch is a very valuable consumer information tool, and it would be a shame that the political connotations that have been attached it to mean that it isn’t trialled in other states, because based on its success here in WA, we believe it would be of benefit to consumers throughout Australia.
Anyone watching Q&A?
It’s gone to the dogs in episode 2.
As I suspected the power of last week came from Rudd, not the format, and certainly not Tony Jones.
This show has about as much political awareness as a cup of dirt.
Gary the media regulations should be changed, hence they should be forced to apologise for mistakes on front pages and if not fined substantially.. But who is the communications minister yes who the dopey Steven Conroy.
Onimod: I’m giving Q&A a miss this week, I can’t stomach a whole hour of the Mad Monk Abbott.
Yep onimod, I’m watching QandA.
So far the best line has been “sshhhh” by Tony Abbott to the audience. Comedy gold.
Tanya is in good form too. The other three are a waste of space so far.
A little quick maths. Barrel of oil (TAPIS) is about $135 USD. Exchange rate is at .96 USD/AUD. So its about $140 AUD a barrel.
Petrol is at $1.65 a litre or so. 42 cents is excise (and GST on the excise). So that is $1.23 without excise.
Take off a profit margin for both the retailer and oil refinery, delivery cost, and refinery cost as state tax. So that I reckon would be a minimum of 23 cents. (This could be seriously wrong however, I’ll do a little research later)
So about a buck for a litre of petrol still in a barrel of crude oil.
100/140 gives 0.71. So for every rise in the oil price, there is going an increase of about 0.71 cents in the petrol price.
So provided no change in other costs or the exchange rate, $200 USD a barrel oil is going to result in petrol at about $2.07 / litre and $300 USD a barrel oil is going to work out to be $2.78 / litre.
(Of course there is a GST which is adding 10% to the price but that is not going to change so I left in on top of everything).
hehehe…
I’m loving the Mad Monk’s facial expressions during the Bill Henson question. His eyes to the heavens asking for help while he’s surrounded by all these lefties.
But yes, last week was much more compelling with the Ruddster on (although I must admit I am rather fond of Tanya who always speaks eloquently).
All these lefties- Warren Mundine, he is New South Wales Right.
749 Cille
I have heard of one particular story from a reliable source where in the early days Rudd met with department heads who were asked to give a ‘blue sky’ presentation of their area of work – ie – if all their dreams came true, what would they like to see happen. Rudd’s dreams were bigger than some of the presenters.
The 2020 experience was the big clue to me that deeper things are at work.
The comment of the night- just happened well stated Bob Brown, Rudd said the photos by Henson were revolting but children locked up in Woomera well no comments were ever made by Rudd or Abbott. Just perfect.
Q+A
Politicians discussing art is like asking an forklift truck driver to discuss quantum mechanics.
This is embarrassing and extremely hard to watch.
Yes marky marky @ 768, but Warren is still left of Tony Abbott!
Now we’ve got “Bob! Bob!” in the audience in his wacky hat telling Bob Brown not to rail on Howard. Good stuff.
763 marky – I agree with you totally.
The big and visionary issues- Camden school next. The mindsight of this country. What next. Simple answer no schools made up of religious dominations, all schools should be secular.
And according to the Shell website, the basic cost of petrol is 95 cents a litre. That works to 0.68 cents per USD rise in oil. So in fact a $200 USD barrel of oil means $2.05 per a litre and $300 a barrel oil means $2.72 per a litre. Which is very close to my original calculation.
Camden was a classic. The area is in a local recession and along comes the biggest building project in the years and they reject it. Big brains in that area.
If it’s in a liberal seat, then it’s a no brainer why they rejected it
i was going to give QU@A a miss untill it looked like the mad monk was having a sort of a fit before the shhh and then Tanya put him back in his box, she’s damn good and to add to it she looks so innocent as she goes into the cut and thrust—until she opens her mouth, the female lib MPs could learn a lot from her.
777 – Yeah, it is Liberal seat; Macarthur. Pat Farmer is the member.
As oil is running out we should be trying to save it by putting in place good public transport, scrapping the fringe benefits tax concession on cars which costs 2 billion dollars, scrapping the GST on public transport, but we must do so only on petrol (stupid) and encouraging greater measures to stop us depleting it.
Oil is needed in everything we do, it makes our clothes, helps food production and is somewhat a necessity but we are doing little to save it.
We are entering an area of serious concern hence climate change, water shortages thus in the future only our capital cities will have water but rural areas will not. It requires strong leadership at present their is none in evidence as we are heading into a period of high inflation, recession, high unemployment and declining living standards.
I had a quick look at the 7:30 report transcript. It doesn’t yet seem to include an interview with a representative of the RAC in WA wqho was complimentary of the fuek watch scheme.
What do you think the headline in todays Worst Australian says – FUEL WATCH IS A DUD SAY RAC BUREAUCRATS.
Much of the critisism of fuel watch comes from fuel retailers and subsequently their spokes persons, the fiberal party.
Crazy hat guy was good value. Tanya is a very good performer.
Abbott is a twit, but damn I find him funny sometimes. He can be quite the comic wingnut.
But overall that show was a bit of a fizzer. (Loved Julia Gillard’s comment in the closing credits: “Go on, ask the question, they’d have to be better than Tony’s”. Love it!)
area= era
The fact is the RAC BUREAUCRATS are just going to have to get used to it.
780 – Bit hard to make stuff out of gasoline. Sure we probably should stop cracking the bigger alkanes, but the lighter stuff is a bit harder to combine into more useful items. Plus it takes more energy.
And note that the story didn’t make the online version, only the Dead Tree version.
How will a system of allowing people to see fuel prices increase prices?
The editorialising on Lateline that scored the government a tight win today is just simply staggering.
I expected much better from Leigh Sales – did she not watch today’s proceedings before letting that get to air on her watch.
Staggered.
Q&A was all about trivial issues, which summed up the type of people we have in this country, full of trivia and voyeurist dills as Mark Latham highlighted in his book the age of the five minute celebrity.
Next Weekend is a long weekend in the Eastern states. The normal price jump will occurring and it will be a very good example of when Fuel Watch would be useful. Missing the discount days doesn’t upset people anywhere near as much as getting screwed on a long weekend.
(Which reminds me to fill up on Monday as I am driving to my parents).
That makes it the trifecta for poor Tony Abbott. Julia, Nicola, and now Tanya. He can’t handle the women LOL.
BTW, I think it’s a good show.
While in WA it’s this weekend.
Prediction Gordon Brown will be defeated in two years by David Cameron.
Only one person will help British Labour David Miliband and he should be leader.
Time to change leaders in Britain Labour.
Maybe we should compare the prices between WA and Victoria and see if price fluctations occur Frank.
747.
Cille. Yep.
Marky Marky: Another name mentioned as a possible successor to Brown as British PM is a chap named James Purnell, the current minister for Social Security, said to be a young one on the way up!
I agree with you that David Miliband is probably the only option to give Cameron a decent fight at the next election.
By all means refer to http://www.fuelwatch.wa.gov.au
Now i understand why the big companies hate it, they can no longer put prices up together and say they do not do it. Perhaps we should do grocery watch wouldn’t that upset our supermarkets.
The media to turn on the uselessness of both Nelson and Turnbull, and throw their support behind Cossie as leader and Downer as shadow treasurer, well before the next election. You read it here first. So says Centre.
Ahhh the old DREAM TEAM hahahaha
Muskiemp, I reckon the media will be left with no choice but to give up on Brenda and lightweight Turnbull and revert back to stability and experience e.g.
- Downer replaced by Howard.
- Latham replaced by Beazley.
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