Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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Nah, I’m an old girl, ask William if he might recall. I don’t work for any political party, but I do hand out for the ALP on election day. You’re all just driving me nuts and I had to unlurk. God forbid the press might bag us! God forbid when we won Government the opinion pieces might not be favourable! Oh no now the ABC is biased to the RIGHT WING! Tbey might be critical to the GOVERNMENT OF THE DAY!
There’s never anything you can’t recover from about being exposed to genuine press coverage, but again I’d say, I’m an idealist.
That give you a hint?
Should i or not state that i was a Latham fan. He would have made an excellent Prime Minister, as he for one was willing to stand up to this countries current Prime Minister- Rupert Murdoch. He unlike Rudd did not crawl to him and look what happened Murdoch and his cronies went after him and completly ruined him, just because he did not crawl, pathetic.
244 marky – come off it. I’ll say it one more time. YOU are the Labor member not me. I have never been a member of a political party. For a lefty who gets mistaken as a conservative supporter on here and quickly sets people straight you are not beyong labelling people incorrectly yourself are you?
Marky, I too voted for Latham and believe he was done in by the press including Murdoch. We differ however on what type of PM he would have made. At the time i thought he would have been good but since his melt down I have serious doubts about his strength of character under fire. He was badly flawed as we have seen since.
Marky, if you want to be honest with yourself, you know that Latham got a really good go by the media until he blew it. It was then they decided to start sticking the boot in.
Actually i think you are right because being a Labor member these days is very much being like a conservative supporter as for some of their policies. Gary i just state what i see, comments which give us feedback regarding the news nearly every day hence the radio or television or today tonight, sort of like keeping track of what they are saying and telling us all.
Similar to when a party realises a policy a one page media brief is provided or when a minister or member makes a comment.
I will say it again i am a member, i have the platform, yearly card and rights to vote in FEA elections and for State Conferences, did not attend the weekend lovefest tend to be decided beforehand by the factions these days.
How did he blow it Centre.
I suggest you people read Lathams’ book especially the introduction.
Emily,Akerman started out here in the Adelaide Advertiser, my adopted surragate dad, dear old uncle Bob Whitington was the head crime journo there at the time and Bob who was as straight as a die had no time for the cane toad even then, when Bob died some of his investigative papers fell into Akerman’s hands and the petulant dill burnt them, they would have been a great help to SAPOL now in an ongoing case, Bob’s legacy in balanced factual rather than shock value reporting still lives on today, a journo from his training is now a head reporter here, I’ve seen too many journos of the Akerman ilk who would’nt spoil a good story with the truth, I’ve got nothing but contempt for them, have you ever wasted your time watching T.T. or A.C.A? nuff said!
Gary – a few weeks ago you were saying if the Tarago Tax numbers didnt make it into Parliament you’d eat your hat or words to that effect?
You’ll be pleased to know that your hat is safe from the broad culinary experience – Mark Butler apparently used it today during a second reading of an Appropriations Bill
He made policy on the run, Marky (troops home by xmas in a radio interview).
Still, not as bad as cutting the fuel excise.
Judy,he’s horrible. I hate him.no argument there.
Well done Possum, that was a great piece of investigative work on your part. I’ve never liked eating hat, thank heavens for that.
The problem was Centre, the corporate media saw him as a threat to their interests and for that reason they went after him. Hence the taxi driver which was not an issue, his first wife not a issue, his relationships with women not an issue and then their was the dopes within who hated him because he had brains and they didn’t- Conroy, Carr, Lennon ( Tassie Priemer) ex grouper , and some dopey dills from the New South Wales right and not forgetting the union movement
the CFMEU who campaigned against the Labor movement a day from election day, the ultimate betrayal and the idiots who made a deal in Victoria to give preferences to Steve one policy Fielding.
I will say it again go to a library and borrow his and book and read it, you may have a different opinion.
I will say this though i did not agree with his economic beliefs and did not agree with going to an election with to many idealistic policies that may have been a failing but he got little help from his own side and the State Governments who as usual had their own agendas at heart.
Marky, the media went after Rudd as well ( Bourke, strip club, etc…).
Are you saying Conroy likes Rudd because he has no brains?
Latham’s Tasmanian forests policy was a shocker, Marky.
marky
it is useless to cast pearls before swine
ps pancreatitis is the most debilitating disease
bit like the old vd joke
first you think your pissing barb wire
second you know your pissing barb wire
third you wish you were pissing barb wire
Read his book Centre to get a bit of a look at his ideas and what were the machinations behind the scenes during his time as Leader.
Forests policy was not a shocker, it was released to late and was badly handled. A union should not get on a stage with a Leader of a Government who did nothing for them, especially the introduction of workchoices and then people such as Dick Adams and Mr Lennon go out of their way to support Howard also.. treachery at its worst and Lennon thankfully has gone and i am rapt.
Gusface can i have what you are having?
239
Kina @ 239 -
I agree Rudd would have been better off ridiculing Nelson on the fuel excise debate for the pointless policy it would be. I mean, he has plenty of ammunition, even from Nelson’s side. Rudd could have made a few points out of this one.
Ridicule? No! What he should have done is shown Nelson up for the small minded, bereft of ideas, lazy, knee jerker he is by demonstrating real leadership on the issue in acknowledging we have a huge crisis on our hands and starting the process to fix it. Unfortunately, Rudd seems to be just as clueless/in denial.
Back in 2000, Nelson’s small minded, bereft of ideas, lazy knee jerking predecessor, John Howard, froze the fuel excise when increasing petrol prices became politically inconvenient instead of addressing the real problems – that oil is an increasingly scarce resource and a major global warming contributor with a limited future.
I don’t know how many billions in revenue have been lost because of that freeze, but if the money had been used to reduce our dependence on oil we would now be better able to cope with the current crisis. Instead, most of it just ended up in oil company coffers and we are even further up poop creek.
This problem is not going to go away, it will only become worse. So the sooner we accept that we need to do more than apply a few band-aids and start doing the hard, expensive, yards to replace oil as our major transport energy source the better.
Unfortunately, perhaps the ultimate solutions, electric fuel cells and/or hydrogen aren’t yet viable. But there are ways of bridging the gap. Better, more flexible public transport, greater use of LPG/natural gas, tax breaks to encourage denser, less transport intensive, inner city housing instead of increasing urban sprawl – and a host of other things that I haven’t thought of but no doubt others have.
marky-touche
actually a lot of what you wrote is true
othello was a victim of both the machine and chronic health problems, the meds he was on and the dosages can cause quite severe reactions (personal experience can attest to that)
also i believe that alot of the intelligentsia that parades as ‘true believers’ didnt get marks working class ethos-or the fact that he was more in the mold of rfxc than than jbc
so now we have a ‘dry” as pm run by a machine more attuned to power for powers sake than the “light on the hill”
rage on marky as your voice aint alone
I know who rfxc is but who is jbc?
so who is rfxc?
and jbc?
gary
ever met rex? or heard some of his diatribes? f##king life changing imho
(jbc was chiffs sometime nom de guerre/code name during ww2)
thomarse
rex francis xavier connor
“junior” ben chifley
And who is Gusface today?
whose asking?
ahh, rex connor
I have The Dismissal on DVD. If the portrayal of Rex Connor is accurate then I agree with you gusface. A brilliant character and a bloke with big ideas. If only they had gone through the right channels for the money Australia would have been a much better place with his grand ideas put into effect.
cheers gary
i wouldn’t characterise rfx as “grandiose’ more visionary- imagine the royalties etc that we would be rolling in
as an aside i believe mark was influenced by rfx’s rhetoric
an old timer i met in the 70’s said he (rfx) had the billy poos (hughes) about him
without the underhandedness of hughes
For once i agree with Gary, the Foreign Debt would probably not exist.
Night Visonaries and dreamers and rest in peace ben chifley a real true believer.
GB @ 278: Well, we wouldn’t be suffering these crippling uranium shortages, that’s for sure. Compare the original Rex Connor rendition of his speech at the special “loans affair” sitting of parliament (which you can hear along with many other wonderful things at Whitlamdismissal.com) with Bill Hunter’s rendition in The Dismissal, and I’ll think you’ll be very disappointed.
nailing your colours to the mast are we william re uranium perchance?
btw rfx’s crusade was about ownership and equitable arrangements
the ‘loans affair’ speech was a sad postscript to a remarkable “mission statement’ re all OUR mineral wealth- not just yellowcake (uranium)
Thanks William.
Marky I have said before that a 5 cent excise reduction would be the same as giving money to the oil companies as their prices would immediately rise fill the gap, they wouldn’t miss the opportunity. The net result would be a loss in govt revenue and nothing else. It was a bad idea and an opportunity for Labor to get stuck in to Nelson to boot. Rudd’s review on the GST on the excise at least makes sense in that it is looking at should we collect a tax on a tax. However he might do that but for little net result to the consumer.
I come from no media unit. Not even close.
—————————–
It is simple fact that the OO and a number of Murdoch journalists have been gunning for Labor and endeavoring to promote the LNP. It is also plain that the ABC has indeed gone to the right since the advent of the thought police.
It is fact that in the absence of anything tangible they go for the trivia…ie Rudd’s salute to Bush.
It is not unreasonable to expect the media to be non-partisan and offer up decent analysis on real issues. And those that are partisan it should be made clear to the reader that they are partisan to whatever side.
Because we have had a bad media in the past doesn’t mean we should not criticise it, or is the media beyond criticism. Because papers and journalists have become incestuous with parties in the past doesn’t we have to accept it or not criticise it.
The media has on the whole been giving Rudd and Labor a bad go for 18 months. Simple fact and unacceptable. The people get their impressions and data from the media and make their decisions from this, so it is indeed important that they get some semblance of truth and context. AND not spun incessant partisan views.
In my democracy it would be nice to have non-partisan reporting so people can make up their own minds based on analysis and facts. That isnt going to happen so the alternative is to not have too much media concentration to allow a diversity of opinions reaching the public. AND it should be mandatory that partisan journalist be identified clearly as such so that people can filter what the see, hear and read. The few journalists that I deal with do tend to be defensive on this issue.
So, now they tell us:
So I guess all those happy photos during Howard’s time of desert cricket, fun runs, tyre changing competitions, sniling Iraqis being trained, visits to the local casbah and so on were true.
We weren’t in Iraq to fight the evil terrorists, provide a vital bulwark against Islamo-fascism and save the Iraqi people.
We were there completely for show.
“Strong on national defence”, was the mantra from the neocons and Howard urgers.
It was all a crock.
285
Kina
Another result of the Howard years IMHO
Analysis & criticism were discouraged, remember the elites, chattering classes etc etc? The great thing about the 2020 Summit was to signal that that was no longer the case.
I still lurk Pies’ blog–can’t post because I have been banned
–and you would not believe the constant whinging about the ‘left wing press’ with special venom for the Age and above all the ABC.
The silver lining for those a bit left is that all these blogs, Dolt, Pies, Janet, Shamaham have helped Labor win office: the Howard government did not receive real feedback on their policies.
It’s interesting how the press sees any differing views within a political party as a split, like it is somehow wrong to disagree within your own ranks. This happens to both sides of course and has done so with the petrol issue recently. Of course the opposing party will always make hay while the sunshines when it happens to their opponents but it just seems to me to be unrealistic to expect everyone within a party to agree on every policy measure.
Discussion and differences within any party must surely be healthy. Isn’t that the way cabinet government works? They sit down thrash out the arguments for and against, make a decision and all agree to go along with it.
How predictable the Murdoch Press and commercial radio are running hard with this, and talking up the supposed split in the Rudd government. These characters haven’t changed their spots since November 24, it’s obviously time to give Nelson a leg up.
I’m not sure this type of thing really plays out there in voter land. This government had a mountain of goodwill out there at the moment so I think the “fallout” will be minimal. The workings of government don’t excite most punters.
The real issue here is who leaked it and why. This was just normal cabinet government at work and some mongrel has leaked.
Geez Mumble has taken a dislike to Rudd in a big way.
my belated thoughts…
The halfwit locum wants desperately to snare back that prized mantle of being the better economic managers, the reason he fails is because he thinks he doesn’t need policy of his own to do this, he thinks if he can stir enough hysteria it might make the other team pull a bad move and give him something to bang his drum about. if the ruddster sticks to his guns the liberal party will disintegrate in its current form.
the silverbullet to rising oil prices? I reckon only one is to be prudent and use your car less, or get rid of it.
The price will decrease when there is either an increase in supply, or a decrease in demand. There can’t be an increase in supply because supply is currently maxed out because of China and India, so the only way to get the price down is to reduce demand by using what we buy more efficiently.
i thought the production of oil had already peaked and is on the decrease, yet the demand is still rising hense the price will only go one way.
Yep a censure motion in Parliament – geez Brendan is predictable
Did anyone else notice that Nelson’s argument was self defeating? He censured Rudd for being unable to bring down the price of petrol, but promptly refused to promise to bring down the price of petrol.
The Opposition today at QT were a rabble and intent on spoiling tactics as they have been all year. There was nothing constructive in their questions just a resolve to disrupt and cause trouble, and to destroy the Gov’t’s credibilitity on very spurious grounds. They did not seem to have any real ideas of their own and seem to think if you deny something, ignore it or make outrageous statemments you can change its truth. They simply do not have any principles and would be in far deeper trouble if the Press did not provide them with “life support” .
Rudd had evidence based material for his policies. What is it the Opposition don’t understand? The best interests of Australia seem far from their minds and they seem to think the end justifies the means.
The Ferguson leak was reported but was one sided. It is simply more of the same in regard to the pattern of reporting we have had all year. I have never seen journalism at a lower ebb than it is now.
I thought Malcolm made a strong speech, sticking to the ACCC report, Chris Bowen’s reply not as good.
Rudd should stick to his guns, world price is beyond his control, he will work at the margins.
If they had cut a lot more deeply into stupid Howard spending they could have offered a bit more to make up for petrol prices.
The PoisonedDwarf is on Agenda extolling Brendan Nelson’s virtues. He says he got the better of Rudd in parliament and Rudd didn’t perform too well. Which parliament did he watch?
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