Roy Morgan returns to its normal Friday routine with a face-to-face poll of 1055 respondents conducted last weekend, showing Labor’s two-party vote again has a six in front of it after dipping below in the previous week’s phone poll.
Other news:
• The ABC reports the hearing into Labor’s appeal against its 12-vote defeat in McEwen has been adjourned, and will “resume next month”.
• In an article in yesterday’s Australian, former Labor Senator and professional number-cruncher John Black reported on research conducted by his firm Australian Development Strategies indicating that Labor’s pitch to “working families” in fact led to a swing away from it among childless women. This did much to explain the phenomenon demonstrated on this map of swings in Melbourne showing a stable result in the city and inner suburbs giving way to progressively larger Labor swings in the mortgage belt. Black goes so far as to claim, a little extravagantly, that “a continuation of this trend in 2010 could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman)”.
• In further number crunching news, Antony Green and Possum Comitatus have drawn my attention to a demographic review of Newspoll data published in March at Australian Policy Online by Ian Watson, freelance researcher and Visiting Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University.
• Yet more number crunching news: the 2007 Australian Election Study, providing comprehensive post-election survey data from 2000 respondents, can be accessed from the Australian Social Science Data Archive.
• Much goodness from the Australian Parliamentary Library: Scott Bennett and Stephen Barber’s research paper on the 2007 election, and electoral division rankings on various measures from 2006 census data.
882 Comments
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Hahhahahahh Hockey is drowning at the moment.
Warren Truss is showing Hockey how to move a motion of dissent
302 Thomarse – I’m no admirer of the buffoon to whom you refer but I do agree with your comment.
hehehe yeah
Hockey was all petulance, is he a kid or a Parliamentarian?????
Hockey gets even more emotional than Nelson. He wouldn’t make a good leader. Not a good look.
I thought Truss did well.
We won’t be silenced!
Milne mentioned the honermoon being over on Agenda today. LOL
Honeymoon that is.
How will the Libs vote in regard to Fuel Watch?
I couldn’t see the video but from the audio it seemed likely that Joe was about to blow a poppet valve. A distinctlty ruddy face as well, no doubt.
Anger alone (faux or real) is insufficient alone.
So the Libs voted against Fuel Watch or maybe they did or perhaps they did not or possibly they don’t have a clue what they voted for.
What a shambles.
I will probably like Fuelwatch, often having to buy petrol on the go and couldn’t be stuffed lining up in those long queues Tue night.
Seems the really cost conscious and time rich (pensioners) might miss out?
Possum has an article on Fuelwatch
Labor should nail Nelson on where the money for his 5c off petrol plan is coming from. The MSM won’t.
I think the Canberra journalists get carried away with what they perceive the effect of the goings on in parliament has on the average Joe. Milne expressed the view that Rudd has got a Keating or a costello to help him. What Milne forgets that neither of those people were particularly popular out in voter land and their performances in parliament didn’t save their respective governments.
Thst should read HASN”T got a Keating or Costello.
hehehe Gillard & Tanner deliver the barbs but without the bombast of K&C
The LNP are of course hypocrites and should look to their behaviour when in government where they basically shut down debate in both houses of parliament in total contempt of democracy. Howard’s crowd were a threat to a fair parliamentary democracy in this country.
Now, having being booted out they still seek to make parliament unworkable by childish pointless behaviour. They are not only lacking in talent and policy they lack a moral compass and dignity as well.
Hockey seems to have become bitter of late and has joined the petulance crowd. When he turned traitor on Rudd by refusing to attend his daughters wedding it seems he burnt his bridges and decided to descend into Howardism.
—————-
I find it remarkable that some think it fine for the media to misrepresent, context and or fact simply because Labor is now the government.
Labor won government so shouldn’t whinge because it gets attacked by the media? I think some have missed the point or reveal their real political persuasion.
It makes no difference the government – media systemically and systematically misrepresenting the truth of the matter is not ok. AND when done in a way to deliberately and falsely undermine one side and to promote another it is a disgrace and not acceptable. It treats Australians with contempt and the democratic process with contempt.
People who chose governments are almost entirely informed on politics through the media on which they then have to make a decision. Thus any systemic bias in the media leads to people making decisions not based on the full truth or context.
I find it amazing that some can be so blaze about partisan media, as though it is nothing to them. I suggest they have look at China media or old Pravda to see an example of one extreme ‘truth’ media.
Journalists who consistently report in a way to support one side of politics regardless of the merits of the facts, are a disgrace.
I think too many years of Howardism has made many accept and find acceptable consistent negative reporting of non-Liberal party views and parties, for no other reason than they are not helpful to the Liberal party.
One good reason for having diverse media ownership is that it gives greater opportunity for diverse reporting so that the generally population has some chance of sifting the facts from the BS.
This is another example of just how petty the Libs have now become, aided and abetted by their MSM minders.
{The opposition wants Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to repay a $US1,700 hotel cancellation fee despite his decision saving taxpayers $US3,400.
Mr Rudd was booked into a suite at the four-star Willard Intercontinental in Washington for three nights as part of his 18-day overseas trip in March and April.
But at the last minute he decided to stay at the Australian ambassador’s residence instead because it fitted in better with a dinner with expatriate Australians.}
http://news.smh.com.au/national/rudd-criticised-over-hotel-cancellation-20080527-2imf.html
296 good call yesterday ruawake
Sky Nooze has a poll on “Who has the answers on fuel prices?”
Govt 11%
Brenda’s Mob 35%
Neither 54%
Now, given that most Sky Nooze polls favour the coalition, this is instructive. 65% of a pro coalition poll thinks Brenda is talking crud.
321
and as has been posed here – this isn’t an issue.
The MSM is wasting paper and bandwidth again…
Maybe it’s a bit like goading the kid with ADHD at school to see how psycho he can really get?
I missed it today, but it sounds like Hockey will be in the mechanics for a few days to get the gasket replaced. Bloody young kids over-revving….
onimod
The Libs are so predictable. They use a sledgehammer to crack a peanut. If they had let question time finish. Then had a MPI debate on petrol etc they would have had identical news coverage.
But NOOO they have to have a censure – which is always dangerous, Rudd did the obvious thing and changed the wording of the motion.
Then Joe has to spend two hours fluffing about in mock indignation while behind the scenes the ‘leadership team” try to work out what on earth to do.
At least they did not just walk out again. How long will Hockey, Joe remain as leader of opposition business – he stuffed up big time today.
MSM have been having kittens by the litterload over the past month at the failure of their “Build up Brenda” campaigns.
Carers – big flop, Pensoners rage, hate Rudd – no sudden drop of Kev’s popularity. Food prices, petol prices, interest rates, Petrol petrol petrol Rudd’s fault blah blah blah– still Brenda sits at 7%!
If newspoll doesn’t stack a few numbers tonight has Brenda at least a 35% and Kev dropping to 55% and have the coalition within 5 %points of Labor in 2PP
we could see mass suicides tomorrow.
Lord wouldn’t that be sad—NOT!
Nelson’s proposal works out to be $2.50 a week if you use 50 litres a week (about 300kms in a V6 in moderate traffic). How many people are going to be marching in the streets for two bucks fifty?
They’ll be driving in Convoy tooting their horns
The censure motion didn’t make it to 7:30.
I cannot for the life of me think of another situation anywhere where Nelson could get away with the mock indignation he put on show today.
Perhaps that sort of tantrum would be appropriate in firing up a bunch of suicide bombers, but that’d be it.
What an embarrassing twat.
I’d wager that the primary response to that sort of behaviour is to switch off, with the express intention of never switching on again.
Initially I thought the 7% was a confluence of factors. I can now believe that it’s a well considered response.
My next door neighbour has a refrigerated Mack truck with refrigerated trailer. He drives to Adelaide and back each week – it costs $6,000 in fuel.
He delivers Pita bread for a major national bread company. It is cheaper for them to truck it than to set up a factory in Adelaide.
One of his favourite yarns is the prawns he trucked from Cairns to Perth to Melbourne to Sydney then eventually to Brisbane because some bean counter in a major supermarket kept changing his mind where the prawns could fetch the best price.
Crazy stuff like this happens everyday, the bread I buy from Aldi is baked in Sydney and is half the price of the bread baked on site at my local Wollies.
318. Kina, I’m with you on this. I’ve mentioned this before on William’s blog, but maybe Ruawake’s site might be an appropriate site for a systematic monitoring of the ABC in particular? Bit of citizen action? The OO, I think you can just forget.
Isn’t there some type of monitoring organisation that looks into standards of reporting? Some of these journalists and papers must be able to be held to scrutiny somehow.
327. Onimod, yes, what would the reaction be, from Brendon (I’m a doctor) if the Labor Party proposed a squillion bucks on the Christmas Island Detention Centre, the Pacific Solution, Abrams tanks of no use in Australia, helicopters that can’t fly in the dark, and so on? Would he spontaneously combust? Or just say, “Oh Yeah, that is a foot, and what’s it doing in my mouth?” This fool thinks Rudd’s going to call an early election, apparently, and that they’re on to a winner with their current behaviour.
328
Ruawake, Get yourself a breadmaker, only use it for the initial knead, you’ll have a loaf of bread or whatever for 60 cents.
Ican’t believe it!!! well maybe i can –this is the coalition remember.
one of the coalition questions at the estimates committee was who is paying for the Rudd dog to be walked in the Lodge grounds, THIS after Howard kept two fully staffed homes and the use of a fully staffed jet to travel to and from Sydney/Canberra so that Hyacynth could keep up appearances,it also meant that staff had to travel to Sydney and stay overnight when needed.
was’nt it great that Rudd opened up Kirribilli to charities for fund raising? all the coalition is doing is showing up just what idiotic dills they are.
Well it’s my view Kev made a fool of himself this week pretending he was an art critic; but no damage done Nelson followed, they now both look like fools. As for the fuel watch thing, who cares. We are close or past peak oil, the price is going to go up, get over it and start working looking the alternatives.
Wind turbines being proposed for Lal Lal, I wonder if we are going to get support or silence from the greens.
328 – Of course for those in transport industry it cost more but there is the chance to recover cost but recharging the customers more(in that case the supermarket chain). This of course has the added consequences of rising prices and adding to inflation.
As for the states (Costa mainly) complaining about the lost of GST revenue if excise is no longer taxed; since petrol has risen about 38 cents in a year, there not going to be out of pocket one cent in reality. Swan should have accused them of profiteering and put them back in their box.
I predict a surge in populatiry for the government.
It’s counter-intuitive, I know, but every time there’s been a “Let’s Get Rudd” frenzy like this in the past it’s flopped big-time.
Asking people to change their minds on who’s best to run the country just six months after an election (and just two weeks after record poll results) is a bridge too far.
Having said that, Ridd’s government is not helping matters by seeming to cave in on every stunt the Opposition pulls.
They need some backbone.
I get the feeling that Rudd is listening to his spin doctors far too much, and has been for some time.
“Labor has acted on a report commissioned by the member for Higgins who TEMPORARILY sits on the backbench and hopes to INCREMENTLY WORK his way to the frontbench”
LOL, well said Prime Minister.
If service stations display the highest price they intend to offer for the next trading day at 2.00pm, the petrol watch scheme MUST work. If they wish to lower their prices, they can notify motorists on the web site at the same time they make the change.
Note you cheap political point scoring irresponsible imbeciles, Nelson and lightweight Turnbull: COMPETITIVE FORCES WILL NATURALLY LOWER PRICES.
I reckon by as much as 3 cents a litre in my opinion. Also service stations wishing to offer discounts will vary on different days of the week.
It’s an excellent policy and the liberals are going to look even more pathetic when it’s proved that it works.
Centre,
Why must FuelWatch work?
Why do you assume that servo operators (or whoever sets the prices) won’t work out the scheme (just as you apparently have) and load the prices to allow for the fact that they can’t go up again till 24 hours later?
It’s a stunt, in my view, just like the 5c off the excise plan.
Also, how is anyone going to prove that it works?
BB @ 336,
I agree with some of this:
- Nelson is a joke and his presence keeps a natural floor under the Govt’s ratings, so nothing would surprise me with Rudd’s popularity.
- Rudd does listen to the spinners way too much, hence the wimpy budget and general over-sensitivity to criticism. No-one can run a country (or stay in office for a long time) by jumping at every shadow that moves, which is the impression Rudd is giving at the moment.
The government has a lack of talent within its ranks, and this alone is the reason it does have any backbone. Question where has Gillard gone has she been gagged?
One of the only competent people they have and lately she has dissappeared?
Spin doctors well they are everywhere now and put simply as i have said before their is the government and media which now controls this country, hence whatever the media says the government acts upon…
They have lost the plot on petrol and the plot on solar rebates.
Rudd needs to stop being so precious and paronoid and to be acting like a perfectionist.
Dyno it must work because all the service stations will be conscious of what their competitors are offering. If you owned a service station would you be happy that the bloke a km up the road is offering cheaper petrol?
You offer your price, and then you must compete to attract business. We will have stability and LESS teamwork and rorts. That’s what the motorists want.
The government should demand the Liberals repay the hundreds of millions they wasted on their failed unmandated radical WorkChoices experiment.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/howard-ignored-polling/2008/03/06/1204779971065.html
http://news.theage.com.au/work-choices-dead-says-nelson/20071219-1i1i.html
In the meantime Nelson talks up the prospect of an early election.
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23766291-661,00.html
He has gone completely troppo. It would be a slaughter.
The Liberals need to change leader – NOW!!!
Dyno, you can prove that it works by providing fair dinkum factual statistics relative to the price of oil on each given day.
But Centre can’t they drop their prices below the stated amount? So won’t they quickly work out that by adding 2-3 cents to what they would previously have charged they give themselves the freedom to still end up at the same profit margin if it turns out that they did misjudge the guy down the road?
Case not proven, as far as I’m concerned.
And the Libs’ 5 cents off (even though it’s just as much of a stunt) is far easier for the average person to understand in terms of its effect on prices.
Even though i hate Nelson and do not for one minute believe he will win an election,
the Labor Party should underestimate him, and sadly they seem to falling for his mantra on petrol and put themselves into a giant hole, Nelson seems to as a result to be setting the agenda.
Put it this way Centre, what do you reckon the price of petrol is going to do in the next two years? I reckon it will go up – significantly.
So then Nelson/Turnbull/Bishop/Hockey/Costello* just says “it hasn’t worked, you’re paying fifty cents (or whatever) more than when Rudd was elected”. It will be a potent line.
Econometric arguments about the relativity of the prices of petrol and crude oil respectively aren’t going to cut it, compared to that line.
* Insert 2010 Liberal leader of choice
Dyno, they would not overstate their price because a competitor could EASILY offer a cheaper price on the net and risk losing a sale!
It wouldn’t be practical to start high. You would set your price and then compete.
Nelson was warning his partyroom today of an election next year? If that happened it would set up nicely for Kevin 11 for the election after that. Does anyone seriously believe a broke Liberal party really wants to fight again so soon?
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