The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).
Those wishing to pursue a conversational style of discussion (this ranges from those who abuse each other to those who say “good night” to each other) are encouraged to try their hand at IRC:
2,238 Comments
Bill Clinton is getting a little bother by it all.
Read on …
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-ha.html
Jen,
I think its a fair question, If Kirri abuses everyone he disagrees with its only fair to ask if he has the same problem with his kids.
2132
Catrina
Searing outrage in that post, and fair enough, as Clinton has dragged it into a cesspit of her own making.
There really is a lot of creepiness about her, and I think America has dodged a bullet.
I only hope Obama does too.
Eddy, you disgust me in every possible way, and I suspect quite a few others around here, but I’ll let them speak for themselves.
I’ve dished it back you because you are, at heart, a pissy little passive aggresive who slides in here and then attacks people with innuendo and snide ugly little comments.
A long time ago I called you a ’serial abuser’. And you hated being caught out for what you are. You’ve proven it to everyone, what else needs to be said?
Sad, ugly, deformed little creature.
You and Hillary are a nice match too, come to think of it.
Bye, don’t bother replying. You are beyond the pail, utterly beyond it.
Is this place full of old people?
If you want to chat there is a tool for that – its called IRC.
Just post a forum address.
Hopefully June 3 marks the end of Hillary’s campaign for the 2008 Democratic nomination! She’s blown it, the RFK stuff is the icing on her cake of woe!
Progresssive,
Icing on the final nail cake? Marketing choices are a wonderful thing.
Kirri it was just a question old son! Why the overreaction?
You seem to delight in dishing it out but get oh so angry at a question! You need to toughen up if you want to play bully boy of the sandpit old son!
GG: with all due respect, it’s been over for Hillary since February! I’ve got admiration for the lady, she’s a fighter, but the reality is she won’t be the nominee. Would I object if she was Obama’s running mate? No.
You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.
Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”
——
I’ve looked at going commercial – done the sums, proper market research for advertising forms including a quote on a media buy for a bag of companies that my readership demographic matched for ad placement (not google and adsense – it’s rubbish for the pseph reader demographic) and it’s not worth my opportunity cost as an individual blogger considering the hours I’d have to work, 2 employees I’d need if I was to do it properly and the loss of nearly all of my leisure time (and let it be said, I’m a possum that enjoys lazing around on the odd branch probably a bit more than I should, so that’s really important to me).
I dont accept donations either because I have no hosting costs being on a free traffic blog – and taking donations doesnt gell with me because of that.
For me to go heavy into the US market would require me ramping up as I did during the election campaign – and that’s extremely time consuming – not really the writing part, but all the hunting down info, talking to the right people, keeping a keen eye on the comments to avoid litigation..all the usual life eaters… plus finding time to think.
I’ll just continue on with the current format – updates a couple of times a week, heavy moderation of comments and the generally lazy approach and try to stay low key to a very specific audience like I did during the 07 election (although that didnt work out so well).
That’s not to say that I’ll be keeping the blog forever in it’s current format, or even using Pollytics as my primary distrubition mechanism (things are afoot on a large spectrum of possibilities in that regard, the Pollytics site will probably be just an archive of my stuff by this time next year at the latest) – but going into the US market full on as an individual blogger (and doing it properly) would be… well, I’d rather chew off my own arm!
Oh – Holy Sheet Batman, a Meebo Shoutbox!
Ooops – bad cut and paste.
The first lines of the post should have read:
KR on the old musty thread said:
“Possum, if you are going to bother compiling all the numbers, maybe you could set up a good site with some google ads for revenue.
Once the US market discovers you actually know what you are doing, you’d get plenty of traffic.
You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.
Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”
Progressive,
With deepest and sincerest best wishes, you must understand my totally consistent position that the contest continues unabated. Otherwise, Hillary would have conceded. So, whenever, I see these facile cliches repeated it makes me laugh.
Also, if as you believe, the contest is over, why the need for such lazy turns of phrase.
Diogenes
A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.
I notice there is a documentary Shake Hands With the Devil based on the autobiography (of the same name) of Lt Gen Romeo Dallaire on ABC1 tonight. I havent seen the documentary but the book is an interesting account of the events at the time and is particularly scathing of the UN in general and Kofi Annan and Jacques-Roger Booh Booh in particular.
Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a Clinton was involved or more importantly, should have been ).
Billbowe – if your reading, have you got an address for your Meebo room on the Meebo site?
It would be something like:
http://www.meebo.com/room/pollbludger/
??
Browsers run by security oriented folk dont always work well with a Meebo embed.
WorkToRule
Which language?
10
Possum Comitatus
yes, that’s why I put in the caveat about ‘commercial’. To do it properly would be a full time commitment plus some code hackers to do the drudgery, so I perfectly understand the reservations. (Even my part time html coding can drive me nuts, and that’s without having to do the research). And yes, you would need proper targeted advertising and all that entails.
Maybe curled up in a nice hollow log is a better life!
But hey, I think we get a great deal with your pearly drops of data crunching wisdom, so yeah, don’t go there! LOL
Wow, it’s still going! ‘Much Ado About Clinton’s Flailing’, the play of 2007/8. Extended run (not by popular demand, it’s just that one player won’t leave the stage).
Gary Younge pulls an aposite Orwell quote into his piece today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/26/hillaryclinton.barackobama
It is a quote probably better applied to Clintonistas rather than the Senator herself. Judging by her media performances of late she knows she has lost now, and is just gunning for the popular vote measure (according to that weird abbacus she has set up in the dark by the RNC tally room) in the offchance that Obama loses the General. In her mind, the presentation of these alchemical numbers to the base of the party in 2012 will have them forgiving her and overlooking Mark Warner for the nomination. Unfortunately for Team Aggreived, Hills will be back at no. 35 in the Senate, Bill will be making money sleazing it round the world, and a Democrat will have just celebrated 4 years in the Whitehouse by this time.
Oh, one other thing Possum: you are hanging around with humans way too much.
You don’t have any arms! LOL
Possum
just back after a few hours and note your comments#2123
“Ron at 2112 – economic models of election behaviour have a poor to average hit rate, although the Fair model seems to work a little better. But they only predict a YES/NO”
That is pat of my point. “economic election prediction “ models are used. Betting markets is just another info tool.
First point You’re said the betting market had a perfect 100% e/v record , are you saying 6 months out from the POTUS elections (you quoted 1968 in one post) Intrade has a perfect record of picking the 12 most marginal states ?
Second pont What you are not accepting is the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today , the pollster is predicting what will happen in 6 months in addvance by state. Secondly the betting market is rating % of winning by e/v state whereas the polls measure an predicted margin. The two are not the same.Thirdly polls can be theoretically modelled into a % chance of winning by e/v but the &% still relects a voters intent 6 months out noyt todays punters money laid
Third point I would have more confidence in a modelled % chance of winning by E/V state with serious psephological info than a betting modelled one with “mug punters” , punters cashing in their prfits , punters panicing , punters laying off etc
Forth point success stats you ar probably sitting on to try & slay me would be overall sucess rates , but its only a 2 horse race so most of the E/V ‘s everyone knows now so the % success rates can be inflated & marginals are 50/50 chance anyway How about giving me todays uncut odds on wi mi mn oh ia mo va co nc sc nm fl & nv. I’ll compare them against my analysis basis in 3/ come Nov
5/ You like these computer models , graphs & charts that’s why you are a marsupial
For barbarians thet represent cybers , & stat weighting. I have no issue with your betting , graphs , charts etc expertise used for you making predictions at all but I do take issue with the suggestioion the betting markets are the only source of accurately predicting e/v’s (with polls at best a minor input) They are a factor in consideration but don’t think the factor
6/ Human psephological value judgement I believe has just as sound a base for predicting e/v’s They may involve as I said earlier (use of polls & successive polls & their analysis , trends , demographics in their entirety , historical precedents & other psephological factors , turnout rates & mobilisation options , policys , incubantcy , the forcast economic election month economic conditions then prevailing , election themes to make a decision by e/v.. some of this may be converts to assist a computer model but assist only , but not with the psephologic-centric viewpoint. For mine I’ll stick to point 6/ here
Some rumors I’m hearing …
Has anyone hear anything equivalent?
KR – I live for logs!
Ta for compliment
ESJ-
it was not a fair question- it was a over the line, buddy.
22
Jen
Leave him, not worth the keystrokes.
My four year old very proudly informed me of his powers tonight: spiderwebs shoot from his fingers (he has NEVER seen Spiderman! How do they do that?), and he shoots grassy slime, and he can turn into a snake. (The last one I know is due to Harry Potter, they both love it). We all did a lovely ride along the river this afternoon now that the little guy can handle the trainer wheels. Some things are as near to perfection as they can be.
Pity about the others, eh?
Oh Kirri,
Trying to play the wronged fella are we? LOL
One only need look at your sad line of vitriol directed at multiple posters on this site to demonstrate that you have a problem.
Maybe I should call DOCS ?
And as for you Jen,
I am happy to accept that you are a garden variety Green, but honestly if you want to defend the indefensible (Kirri) then you shouldnt be surprised if your reputation suffers by association.
ESJ.
You are pathetic. Last keystrokes wasted.
Catrina – I bet the charter companys ar sh*tting themselves. I thought they’d
be using rickshaws by now.
Ron at 19, just a few quick points to answer:
Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record.
The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.
Odds today in Intrade and Iowa are set by bid and ask price, not money volumes as happens with bookies. Intrade and Iowa are contract markets, not betting markets like betfair, portlandbet, centrebet etc. Contract markets work very very differently.
Pollsters arent predicting what will happen at any time in the future at all – polls tell us “if an election were held today – who would you vote for”, they dont ask “When the election is held in 6 months from now, who will you vote for” – there is a big difference.
Modeling polling margins as a “win probability” is an exercise for statisticians that are removed from political reality… a 57% TPP doesnt mean there’s a one in 10000 chance of the other side winning (which is what the stats say) because it’s a misrepresentation of what polls are, and what they are actually measuring.
“Mug punter” bets are effectively anchored by “smart money”. If “mug punters” bid the price too far away from insiders perceptions of reality, those with better knowledge will and do buy or sell to make a killing.
If you want the odds on those States, go to http://www.intrade.com/, click on politics on the left, then click on “US Election by State”. The price under “last” is the approximate odds of that event happening.
Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.
Yes Jen, perhaps if you looked with a little more clarity a little “less scales on the eyes” you might see your good buddy (Kirri) a little more clearly.
I admit to going in hard on poor old Kirri but after all no one has dished it out more harshly and consistently than Kirri – I’m just providing a little levelling to our precious petal. Actually the self-righteous comments from Kirri amuse me greatly given the vituperativeness directed at a poster with some perceptive comments like Ron he can hardly complain if he gets a little return of serve provided free of charge by moi.
You might have more credibility too if you were prepared to apply a little more critical analysis!
Eddy once stormed off this site in high dudgeon because someone inferred it would have been better if he’d been aborted.
My goodness, you should have heard him squeal like a stuck pig, demanding that WB do this,and do that, because it was an outrage.
Just look at him now.
Yes how sad Kirri we have been reduced to your standards.
Harold
#13
“Diogenes ,A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.”
It was me Harold. i wanted to know what specifically were Obama ’s policys to redress the horror of Ruwanda , Darfur & Burma….got no answer
k/r
#3
as you haven’t answered #1857 as amended , additional question , name the countrys that presently use Obama’s economic model
Harold
#13
“Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a CLINTON was involved or more importantly, should have been ).”
Yes you see Jen #30 from Kirri is actually the truth, except that Kirri thought that was highly amusing and correct.
I dont recall you expressing moral outrage then or now.
So please dont lecture me or take a high handed tone with me.
#
31
Edward StJohn Says:
May 26th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Yes how sad Kirri we have been reduced to your standards.
hang on buster, show me where I’ve accused anyone of mistreating their kids, or is that just the way you always talk?
It’s not ‘we’ who are reduced Eddy, it is you.
Ugly little creature trying to blame me for your odiousness.
I think Krugman doesn’t get it either:
What about offering Mrs. Clinton the vice presidency? If I were Mr. Obama, I’d do it. Adding Mrs. Clinton to the ticket — or at least making the offer — might help heal the wounds of an ugly primary fight.
Here’s the point: the nightmare Mr. Obama and his supporters should fear is that in an election year in which everything favors the Democrats, he will nonetheless manage to lose. He needs to do everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen.
NYT
…well at least he’s writing for a paper that endorsed her, so it’s fair to be her cheer squad I suppose.
Kirri, I think Jen’s conspicuous silence demonstrates even those who were prepared to entertain your drivel are having second thoughts.
Evening all….I’ve been plucking on my old Maton Coolibah (such a beautiful guitar) and singing Cohen’s ‘Hallelujah’ to the four walls, while simultaneously keeping an eye on the goings on in Bludgerdom. The music was relaxing – but the blogging – well – same ol’ same ol’. Nothing much new to report since Hillary self destructed after NC and Indiana really. Now we’re all just sitting around and getting cranky as we wait for the SDs to disconnect Hillary’s life support.
Go on! Do it now SD’s!! Then I can put some heart in ‘Hallelujah’!
Hillary’s invoking the month of June and 1968 is questionable, just on the ‘timeline’ argument, and if you can wade through the details, this tells why she’s really having a lend of everyone:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/the-fallacy-of.html
…and what’s more, she must know it.
Hey FG, there’s some rabbiting on about that song linked through here: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
38
Ferny Grover
And then it will be time for the Sisters of Mercy (they are not forsaken or gone).
Eddy, the only thing amusing was you p!ssing off, and it was truly the most high camp performance I’ve seen on a blog.
Darling Eddy, did you do it in high heels too?
Possum #28
just a few quick points :
“Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.”
I am not suggersting that. My #19 point 6/ lists the human evaluation judgement psephological methodology that I’m suggesting is just as sound as prediction markets. You presumably disagree with my point 6/ ?
Aside only (think you misunderstood my lingo , The modelling I was referring to was the use of polling & other data for simulations not the poll margin. A Poll still relects a voters intent 6 months out based on an assumed election today but the odds are a factor of bids buys & sells today & prev.I said ‘the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today’ .Money is the buy & sell volumes still affect odds whether by contract bids buy or sell)
LOL Kirri.
Do you beat your wife?
FG,
Here’s a version you gotta luv.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsa_xWLOghg
Having a look at that Intrade state by state market, i think they are nearly all correct.
The one i think they have wrong is Missouri. I think Obama will win there.
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080525_rfk_comment/
——————————
Mon May 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AvVRn25MuP8fdg_HZ.IFGZhL6ysC
Mon May 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AvZnkRZM4q3iM9rQffhO7O_X.sgF
“Those wishing to pursue a conversational style of discussion (this ranges from those who…… to those who say “good night” to each other)”
Shocking really, good respectable pseph folk takin’ the liberty of exchangin’ pleasantries.
On the issue of Intrade having McCain’s probability of getting the nomination at only 95%, I assume part of the reason for this is that investors need some interest in return for having their money tied up till Sep/Oct/Nov?
Ron
#43
2nd para “I am not suggersting that” (addition): that polls alone are better)
KR at 30
Do you have an archive reference? This sounds interesting.
It’s funny, but the “offending” post to poor Eddy is here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/806?cp=8
#776
…and it got slapped as ‘childish’ by our dear moderator, and was hardly more than some silly talk.
Eddy threw a right tantrum, if anyone’s bothered to read it, and THAT was really funny!
Pure goose, our Eddy, always has been and always will be.
Catrina,
Don’t encourage them, please!
Who gives a … about Eddy and KR’s little tiff??!
Thanks Pancho, good article. I’d forgotten about Cale’s version – which was covered by everyone else including Buckley.
Thanks to you too GG. Yep Buckley’s tragic version reflects its artist…and makes it a hard song to sing without getting choked up – which doesnt do much for my very average vocals.
Great song.
Hey Jen – no speakie hey? What a hypocrite you are!
Good Good Kirri – let the anger flow – I bet the ice cubes in your liquor are tingling now!
No more communication between ESJ and KR, please.
‘think you misunderstood my lingo’ Ronron
‘dont lecture me or take a high handed tone’ ESJ
Magic moments.
Catrina, pyjamas & pekinese…hint
Pedro, peripatetic psephy, 40 days & nights or so it seems, & still wise, welcome back to Electahillabillity: the last rites…
Catrina @ 15
asked
“Which language?” (to pick up the Intrade quotes)
Well at the risk of taking a turn off topic.
Nothing fancy just VB and some regular expressions to parse the html page.
But more importantly – how can I identify any mispricings? This is going to be an awefully long campaign and I need some punting on the side to keep engaged.
A dabble on Jim Webb for VP is the only insight I’ve had so far.
Possums earlier descriptions have me worried that its a rather informed and responsive market place.
GG & FG, try this for old time sake:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
Here’s some soothing music,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP9dZqkyUX0
Dyno @ 48
Good point. The betting markets (unlike futures market) require you to put the whole price down up front.
Mind you with cash rates in the USA at around 2% – its not a bad return – not sure how you hedge out McSame dropping of the perch.
WorkToRule at 58
I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.
At 60-40 the betting markets seem a v.risky proposition. After all Hillary was the favourite in January.
Catrina,
“I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.”
Now that brings back memories.
That’s how I used to pick up chicks at the Croxton Park Hotel.
k/r
#39
You & others have such venom for a fellow Democrat Hillary that even when she does the wrong thing you still can not judge it in a balanced way.
“Robert Kennedy Jr. released a statement saying it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame. I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”
1/ The Kennedys are politically savvy & the statement was carefully prepared.
The Kennedys could have chosen to say 2 of the 3 phrases only
“I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, and it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame”
The Kennedys chose to add “but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense” They know Hillary is under media pressure why she is still campaigning in June. They know RFK (despite a campaign starting later) was factually still campaigning against Humphry in June 1968 , JUne the operative month , so they know her reference was solely to the June Primary timeframe only & said so.
Had they thought otherwise , they wouldn’t have lied & said so unambiguously
“but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”
Hillary as I earlier bloged used a poor analogy innocently but in doing so it was poor judgement. The Kennedys gracously didn’t say the same as me because it was obvious. You guy have taken it beyond what the Kennedys said. If the Kennedys thought as yous have said and implied the same as yous it would have forced Hillary to concede that day
GG at 64
And did it work?
codger at 57
Did you know that the first item on google for pyjamas & pekinese brings up a PB page?
I can remember the NSW Libs at 1.90 and Labor at 1.80 in December 2006 and we all know how that turned out.
Catrina,
Like winning Tattslotto every week.
Catrina says
“take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection”
Put it all on black …
catrina/codger
Happy to freely admit Ron called me names and vice versa. Happy to also admit that I can change my views and opinions AND that Ron makes some good points – like what ideology exactly does Obama have – hope juice?
Betfair has POTUS odds of Obama 1.70 and McCain 2.92. Hillary 19.50.
They seem about right to me.
Well hush ma mouth Catrina.
GG at 69
As is “in your dreams”?
ROTFLOL
Dream on GG!
http://www.catrinasbridal.co.uk/communities/004/006/107/021/images/4516620219.jpg
Remember in the Australian fed e the difference between the overall odds and the seat odds?
Interesting INtrade has something like Virginia as I think 55-45 to the R’s.
Fine ESJ @ 71, But ‘DOCS’ @ KR etc come on…run your ‘race’ as you see fit…no probs.
Catrina,
Nice shot.
Are you about to fall out of your algorithm? How much forward trend can you deal with?
ESJ @ 75,
Most of the individual seat markets in our election were very shallow – not much money bet, and plenty of scope for pollies or their friends to manipulate the odds in order to make a (rather pathetic) point. There were a few markets with some depth (eg Bennelong) but not all that many.
Not saying people did rig the markets for individual seats, but it’s at least possible.
Finns @59,
Nice version. Brings back a few good memories.
GG at 77
It’s all about risk and reward – you know that feeling when everything is about to coalesce but at same time anything can happen – and your 142% alive. I like 142%. What about you – how far are you ready to go?
78
Dyno
Ah, Bennelong, that brings back good memories! LOL
#71 – esj, gore vidal called it the cliche juice, the kind like the recipe for quiche, eggs you scrambled together, with few crumbs of bacon, and then half-baked and then you sell them to the people in the street
Codger 71 if you read the thread in its entirety I think the case is pretty clear. No need to say anymore.
I’d say essence d’fart Finns.
Codger
#57
you’ve missed the key area of dispute between me & Possum
Possum #28 “Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record. The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.”
If Possum was right , do not read any polls or political articles about e/v states or look at sites that do 10,000 simulations of State’s % e/v winning chances , or ant politic date , just look at the daily Intrade. I do not agree either that their value is that good despite the ‘record’ and further I am saying at #43 that the basis of predicting elections is just as sound using the criteria I listed in #19 point 6/. And next time he is live I will make this additional point
Ron at 85
*sigh*
Catrina,
There can only be one answer.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=4PHfouJRA3Q
GG at 87
Something from the current century – please!
59
Thanks for that Finns. KD Lang’s version worked well with Kevin
Ron say
“I do not agree either that their value is that good”
Ron, you are spot on
You should extend the mortage (or take a new one)
And bet on Clinton to become POTUS
It will be a double victory – both moral and financial
Ronron
‘Codger
#57
you’ve missed the key area of dispute’
Electahillabillity?
Don’t think so. But am open to ‘butterfly’ persuasion.
Ronnie & Poss, i will leave the two of you to slug it out on poll vs intrade. but i simply find this amazing, it does not matter how you like to spin it. it has been like this for the last couple of months.
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
codger at 91
Where is that blindbutterfly when you need him?
Hovering not lurking…
codger says
“Electahillabillity”
Three point shot
RCP has just updated it’s delegate count bumping Obama’s SD lead up from 32 to 35 and his overall delegate lead to 193
#88, [Something from the current century - please!] – since you asked. the song and the singer fit you puuurfectly
90
WorkToRule
Yeah, you buy Clinton for 6 on intrade, wow, now there’s a fat profit if she came in! (She’s a bit ahead of Al Gore for President, but not by very much. Maybe Gore would be a better bet! LOL)
A horse at 15 to 1 you’d call a roughy, so I think we could call Hillary that too!
The Finns, I have some really bad news for you. Its the delegate numbers not electoralvote.com that counts. But you go on posting the numbers that suit you if it makes Hillary’s loss a little bit easier
Not sure if it has been previously mentioned – but Guy Rundle in his daily report on Crikey had a lovely observation on the prospect of Hilary becoming VP.
“Bill is apparently pushing for her to take it – which is the main reason why Obama would resist it. Can you imagine having Bill looking over your shoulder? Man that is so sitcom.”
Hey – its a sitom we’d all watch though
Obama only needs another 49 delegates to get to the magic number.
#99, are u a parrot or a chameleon tonite?
Will the Clintons put their heart and soul into helping Obama win in November, or is Hillary really hoping for a McCain win so she has another shot in 2012?
Finns,
Don’t show this to the others.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYgExez7BUY
100
WorkToRule
yeah, it’s 3am, Obama’s kids are asleep, and the phone rings in the Whitehouse. Who do you want to answer that call?
Bill: It’s your deal Barrack, let Hillary get off her fat ass and get it. She wanted to be Veep.
Ron at 85
Mate – that’s reductio ad absurdum.
Read all the polls – they’re excellent qualitative value for the good ones (or aggregates thereof)
Look at the simulations – it shows the difference between the polls and markets (and food for though of future market movements – do markets in some states follow the polls beyond the variance, and in others do markets lead the polls – all worthy brainfood)
Look at the strategies, indulge in the political plays – it’s all part of the beautiful spectrum of electoral politics.
All I’m saying is that polls in the US arent very good, and in terms of predictive value – go to the markets as your first port of call (but certainly not your only port of call)
103
Progressive
Tantalizing, waiting for HillBilly to eat crow and start hollerin’ for Obama, ain’t it?
I’d presume the Obama camp will have enough SD’s come out b/w now and June 3 so that he is well above the 2025 line – or wherever the line is re-drawn after the May 31 ruling on MI an FL.
I guess things are on hold so as not to be seen to be “forcing” Clinton out – but the mood of the party is to end this thing ASAP.
When do people think the SD’s in the wings will make the move?
Finns @ 102
Sadly, just another boring astute observer; butterfly landed if you like. Find net & have fun.
We’ll let you know when to laugh. OK? Promise.Too easy.
GG, another nail has gone into the coffin of “new politics”.
So much for a new kind of US politics
By Clive Crook
Published: May 25 2008 17:58 | Last updated: May 25 2008 17:58
Ferguson illustrationTwo weeks ago in this space I expressed the naive hope that a US presidential contest between John McCain and Barack Obama might be a cut above ordinary politics. Neither man, to put it mildly, is the conventional type. Both are men of principle, with strong convictions – but with a pragmatic streak as well, open-minded, committed to bipartisan co-operation and running against business as usual. With luck, I said, they would treat each other with respect and steer clear of ad hominem smearing. For once there might be an election about the issues.
Perhaps I misspoke. Mr Obama, increasingly certain of his nomination as the Democratic candidate despite Hillary Clinton’s refusal to yield, has begun turning his attention to Mr McCain. His principal line of attack is that the Republican nominee stands for “four more years of George Bush”. Mr McCain, meanwhile, has fastened on his rival’s avowed willingness to meet rogue leaders such as Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad “without preconditions” and charged him with a taste for appeasement.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aff0f36e-2a53-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
“reductio ad absurdum”
hmmm, you can say that last bit again, and again, and again.
#109, codger – so what do u want to be? i be kind to you, i let you choose which one(s) suit you the best, take your time, dont worry, take your time, dont hurry:
stupid, blockhead, cretin, dodo, dolt, donkey, dope, dork [slang], dumbbell, dummy, dunce, fathead, goon, half-wit, ignoramus, imbecile, jackass, knothead, moron, nincompoop, ninny, nitwit, numskull (or numbskull), pinhead, simpleton, stock, turkey, a ning nong
Codger Worktorule my P and andrew
what you guys cann’t handle is
I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary which none of the Obamabots have ever been able to intellectually challenge…and yous are embarassed because ‘the best candidate” argument logically is the by far the most electable.
So when yous say the delegate leader must be the best candidate you know it looks so lame because it is.
Then when I demonstate Obama has rorted the delegate numbers by excluding FL & MI and played the system to get his delegate lead solely on 90%+ black votes your embarassment becomes ‘bitter’
I should also add there’s another net 46 delegates in Obama’s lead that Obama got in four 4undemocratically run Caucus’s
So Obama’s delgate lead of 2% is very ‘tainted’ vs the ‘best’ candidate the by far more electable , Hillary , so no wonder yous are ‘bitter’ that your perceived victory if it occurs will be shaby and hollow. They’re the facts
Speaking about abortions! (One shouldn’t, but how ironic! LOL)
Quick, check the odds on Sebelius!
Robert Novak, friend to Neoconservatives and general asswipe:
There is substantial evidence she has been involved in laundering abortion industry money for distribution to Kansas Democrats. Kansas is the fiercest state battleground for abortion wars, making Kathleen Sebelius the national pro-choice poster girl.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/a_vicepresident_for_abortion.html
…it’s a tasty hit piece titled “A Vice-President For Abortion”, so it ain’t subtle.
OK, I’ll check her odds…
Finns is busted doing the cut and paste from thesaurus.com!
FINNS perhaps #113 could go into your forensic files as evidence of the “taintedly elected” Nominee ?
Puerto Rico is Sunday and the following Tuesday we have the State of Montana and good old South Dakota. I’m expecting 40% of the remaining delegates will come out of the closet before the end that week (i.e. the 7/6). I figure the remaining 60% (172 on current rules) will choose to stay undeclared up to the convention (keep in mind that little group only represents something like 4% of the super delegate pool). The 40% that come out will be equal to 114 delegates in the 13 days (if my thinking is right) – and that’s more than sufficient to close any arguments (irrespective of best or worst case scenario).
Poss, plead guilty but i did add the ning nong bit which probably is the best for Codger
Intrade don’t have Sebelius except as ‘other’ and the shortest odds are for…what for it, ‘other’.
Hill’s well down the list as you might suppose! LOL
“wait” for it…the dyslexic digit strokes agiaun!
Oh Delphic Oracle, can’t you just finally ‘nail it’? LOL
KR at 121
All I can say is that is looks like the Clinton’s chances are all but aborted at this time.
Possum
#106
Its your perogative to ignore my suggestion in #43 namely that the psepholgical methodology listed in my #19 point 6/ to predict election results is just as sound as prediction markets. You have neither agreed nor disagreed
You spent many blogs with diogenes supporting prediction markets & later with me , and when I’ve put an alternative option to prediction markets and you don’t comment then mate that’s reductio ad absurdum.
The Finns, your namecalling will not alter the fact that its the delegate count that matters and Hillary cant win. She has FAILED to make the electoral vote argument and you trotting it out repeatedly wont change that. So call me what your like. My candidate has the numbers and your’s doesnt. Your most welcome to join us in the real world
The Dear Leader was right all along for not stopping over in Tokyo on the way to Beijing. Even Taiwan now knows which side of the bread is buttered. Japan sometimes still view Taiwan as her “colony”, especially the looney right. “Bad will” indeed.
Disappointment in Tokyo over Ma’s inaugural speech
By Chang Mao-Sen and Fan Cheng-hsiang
Monday, May 26, 2008, Page 3
President Ma Ying-jeou’s failure to mention Japan in his inaugural address last week disappointed the large Japanese delegation, who had high hopes that Ma would continue the Japan-friendly line he took during his presidential campaign and after winning the election.
Many had expected Ma to pledge to bolster ties with Japan and reiterate his support for the US-Japan Security Alliance in the speech, Kyodo news agency reported.
Considering Ma’s focus on Japan at key junctures during his presidential campaign, the omission raised eyebrows. But Ma’s even stronger focus on China, whose relations with Japan are often strained, goes a long way to explaining why Ma apparently felt Japan — a key, albeit unofficial, ally — did not deserve mention, the agency quoted experts as saying.
“China definitely played a factor,” said Luo Fu-chuan, Taiwan’s former representative to Japan.
The Sankei Shimbun reported on Friday of a translation mishap at Ma’s lunch meeting with the Japanese delegation at the Presidential Office following the inauguration on Tuesday, which inadvertently turned the “goodwill” of the Japanese delegation into “bad will.”
The report said that as Ma had made no mention of Tokyo in his inaugural address, Takeo Hiranuma, leader of the Japanese delegation to the inauguration and head of the Japan-ROC Parliamentarian’s Council, told Ma during the lunch meeting that “Japan will do its utmost, and I hope that you will mention Japan in your next inaugural speech.”
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/05/26/2003412991
Ron, how do you do it?
With a forked stick? Wave it over a list of candidate’s names?
See which way it divines?
Impressive, can you do it for water too?
(Maybe you can get a Hillary autographed banjo after the convention? I’m told there will be lots and lots left over.)
Possum daliiance with termites leads to branch ‘bastardo’…& as a wise old gum once whispered to me…’that leads to much scattering of ‘butterfly’ hunters…’
Not a good look on the PC front…
Hey Finns I love you too!
codggy, didnt realise you care, i am touch
Take heart, Hillary-boosters– you should be trading intrade to the high heavens, not running it down. There’s something very interesting happening there that you’ll love.
Most of the states’ markets are around where you’d expect although there’s a lot of ’silly money’ on states marked as a 5-10% chance for the losing side, where in reality they’re far less than that. A minor surprise is Ohio which is an, I think, optimistic 62:38 to the Dems.
However, the monster surprises as Arkansas being listed as a 23% probability of a Dem pickup, and West Virginia a 20% pickup. Obama is going to get pumped in both of them. We can say that with some certainty even 5 months out. Even if Hillary were a 100% chance to win them if she were candidate (and she would be far from that), the markets now have her as something like a 7% chance of being the candidate. All together now: The Smart Money Knows Something We Don’t Know, but rather than scaring the horses (and decreasing their profit margins) by plunging huge amounts directly on the Hillary vs Obama race, they’re taking money on the side by filtering it through the November Arkansas and W Virginia markets!
Gee, do I have to supply all of your conspiracy theories for you?
Actually, seems not: Bill is out there supplying some of his own– “I can’t believe it. It is just frantic the way they are trying to push and pressure and bully all these superdelegates to come out. ‘Oh, this is so terrible: the people they want her. Oh, this is so terrible: she is winning the general election and he is not. Oh my goodness, we have to cover this up’.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-ha.html
Hard to know what to say in response to that, other than: Bill, there are some lovely men in the corner who are very interested in your theory that the people’s desperate yearning for HRC is being covered up. They’d like to share a few words with you about the Illuminati and 9/11 in return.
Kirribilli Removals: Hillary’s concession speech will be one to watch. Will she be gracious, or bitter and twisted? If she is sincere about helping Obama win in November and does her bit during the campaign, I’d have no objection to a job for her in an Obama administration(Health Secretary?), but not VP!
Good night all! Play nice while I’m tucked up in bed LOL
Ron at 123 – I just disagree with your point 6. I think following the data works better.
Interesting: Obama is even competitive against McCain in Montana – hardly a hotbed of radical leftwing nutters.
SimonH at 130
Ouch, a wicked closing!
Simon H – on a serious point that will no doubt stir some consternation, the smart money knows that stuff about Obama needing a majority of the trailer park vote to win isnt worth a pinch of psephological pshit… so to speak
You want a real mindblowing Intrade figure – check out Mississippi.
Progressive at 131
I posted the YouTube prelude to Hillary’s concession speech a couple of days ago – did you see it?
Possum: the Obama people think they’ve got a chance of winning Georgia and Missisippi if the black voter turnout in November is huge.
“Ron at 123 – I just disagree with your point 6. I think following the data works better”
You are entitled tothe first sentence but not the 2nd. My # 19 point 6 is full of varying psephological data , did you mean following the’ money’ or having a go
Catrina: yes, I did see it!
Thanks!
Ron #113: “I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary ”
Which reminds me of that famous editorial from a newspaper in country Victoria in August 1914: “Time and again we have warned the Kaiser”.
No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking
135
Possum Comitatus
What’s your point Poss, about Mississippi?
114 KR
That article by Novak is the clearest indication yet of who Obama’s VP will be.
Get a bet on Sibellius now.
Novak is the go to guy for a Repug pre-emptive hit piece. The trouble is they are fighting old wars. They have lost the abortion war in a big way.
Obama wants Sibellius as his VP. And it just could work out as an effective way to smooth over the aggrieved female Hillary loyalists. What better way to galvanise Democratic women voters than old troglodyte Conservatives and their never ending abortion lectures.
Obama/Sibellius 08….and at least 300 electoral college votes.
Bring it on.
140
Robert Bollard
Ah, good evening to ya RB, and right on cue with a bon mot, how nice.
POss #135 It’s all about the base innit? Silly buggers think the US is Aus and it’s all about some US equivalent of the aspirationals.
Possum
“No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”
Possum , that unsubstantiated allegation can be made against anyone putting up a value judgement based on psephological grounds. Are you suggesting you know I do because that is the implication intended or unintended. you may as well be clear
143
HarryH
I’d say she’d be right up there with a chance and Novak is going to try and kneecap any likely contender.
It’s an argument that appeals to the Catholics and religious conservatives, who’ve hardly been big on liberal Democrats since, oh well, Kennedy maybe? LOL
I doubt it’s wrecking the Democrat’s base is my point.
HarryH at 143
And there was I thinking that the abortion wars at PB were over and done with.
I can’t get over the fact that a Governor of Kansas is named after a Finnish composer.
Well, sort of….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Sibelius
149
Robert Bollard
Different spelling RB
But very close.
RB
You can say SNAP!
KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.
RB – the Base get’s you in the game, everyone else gives you the margin. US politics is always two games in one;get your base out and attack the middle.
The Repubs problem is that the middle and what has become of their base are allergic to each other over most things.
Ron – too often, the grand plans of political campaigners, the propaganda that accompanies it (that whole “leaked sources said” bizzo) as well as leaps of faith on the demographic bandwagon just arent compatible with the data – and when they conflict I just choose to go with the data
Sibellius got elected in ruby red Kansas in 2002 and then re-elected in 06 in a landslide.
She is hardly on the nose to republican/Conservatives.
Attacking her over abortion will be a vote loser for Republicans overall in the General. But it’s all they know. Part of why their Party is decaying.
Bring it on.
153
Possum Comitatus
I’ve just looked and it says last trade at 12.5 for Dem?
I understand that Poss. My point was about Mississippi where I suspect it’s mostly about the base.
Possum
I also follow the data , even when its anti hillary as it was & is in some States. your implication could be taken that I do not. Thats your opinion but as i’ve already said anyone can say that about anyone else without proof
Harry,
I agree. You’d think that the Repuigs would have attacked her in Kansas over that already, and if it didn’t work in Kansas it’s not gonna work anywhere else. THat being said, her speech in reply to Bush’s State of the Union was apparently boring as batshit.
Independants en masse held their noses in 2004 and voted Republican because of national security as a result of Sep11 2001.
After the ensuing 4 years of Republican/Bush disaster, those Independants are going to be in a punishing mood.
RB@158 – It was a real bloody snoozer. She ain’t no Obama, but then again, just about everyone will have a charisma deficiency standing next to him. Solid and dull mightn’t be a bad way to play it.
RB
I think boring as batshit is just fine alongside the Illinois excitement machine.
She is female,conservative,progressive,white,stable,respected,popular.
Ron at 146
Ron, the general rule is that a comma (i.e. ‘,’) is not preceded by whitespace. In fact if you review a broad spectrum literature you will find very few if any occurrences of a comma preceding whitespace. The comma is a valuable and useful punctuation device because it separates the structural elements of sentences into manageable segments. Read on for further self development.
http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_comma.html
Blardy hell – thanks KR
My (ahem) apparently not very good data gathering script for the Intrade site is .. well, shit (that’ll teach me to write it myself!). Or else Systat is having import problems – entirely possible with that useless thing, but my money is on me being a poor programmer.
I just did the old fashioned copy and past into excel, cleaned it up and everything else in Fridays data entry is right – except Mississippi. Mind boggles.
And here I was talking horseshit about Mi all day!
Ha!
Mea Culpa
Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!
153
KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.
Possum, that is Minnesota, not Mississippi.
Harry #161: MY only problem is that you’ve just described the female Harry Truman.
162
Catrina
My dear Oracle, the content, if it could be called thus, IS the white space!
You have completely missed the point of his posts!
Oh, and the commas, they are integral additions to that very same white space.
Robert Bollard at 165
William – why aren’t you deleting posts like Robert Bollard at 165?
164
GhostWhoVotes
Why thanks GWV, that puts a complexion on things! LOL
If Mississippi burns…well, you can write your own punchline! LOL
Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data.
Assuming of course that I can get my act together and actually look at the hard data that is of some semblance of reality!
KR@168 – very Clintonian.
“Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!”
The Tzarina will die leaving her young son to inherit. He will have an adolescent crush on the Clinton’s and will switch allegiances. It will be the miracle of the house of Arkansas/Long Island/Pennsylvania/insert attachment…!
KR at 166
I don’t have time to write another decoder!
I’ll just put that down to another aborted attempt to change the world.
RB
I share your red pain…but realism must prevail in the non-Hillary world.
Ghosty – My Minnesota entry has 76, which is what it was late Friday. I’ve somehow got this cosmic entry for Missi at 77.5 for the Dems! I’m honestly f^*$#d if I know how that happened!
174
Possum Comitatus
ya gave me a fright, because I’d looked at those state numbers earlier and did a double take when you put that up! LOL
So I went and checked again, and guessed you’d blooped.
Another valuable and useful punctuation device is the hyphen, which is to be used when employing prefixes – an example being self-development.
http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_hyphen.html
Now, please stop being a pain in the arse.
Possum at 174
Are you reading against state names or two letter abbreviations?
Possum Comitatus #141
“No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”
Possum that could have been taken as a go at me which I was not going to object to actually because I never have objected to any insults here. I just wanted to establish whether you were trying to or if it was unintendedly left vague
Possum Comitatus #169
“Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data. ”
Accept you were not having a go. Soft data is useless to me. Now I haven’t looked at that Intrade link yet you gave but if MI be 75% for BO I don’t see the value , I think MI will remain ‘red’ unless there is an incredible ‘black turnout’ , do not see it
And what is that I’m missing about RB’s comment?
And I love you back!
For three years in a row over 30 percent of Mississippi’s residents have been classified as obese. In the most recent (2006), 22.8 percent of its children were also classified as obese. This makes Mississippi the most overweight U.S. state.
Wiki
…the things you find on the net! LOL
KR at 181
Any details on where Mississippi stands on the economic spectrum?
KR #181 “That ole man river he just keep rolling the inhabitants along.” And with that I will roll my not-as-thin-as-it-used-to-be carcass into the sack.
Cat, I pull the data from the site into an excel format which are given abbreviations – then import that into Systat (which is the program I’m using at the moment for my US stuff – it’s import capabilities are limited in practice, hence the two stage process) where the States abbreviations are given a number. I stuffed up the Systat numbering regime (typo actually) – which is good because it took all of 10 seconds to fix it.
Hooray!
Ron – dont worry, the Missi price aint 75! (it’s actually 12.5) That’s just me being a l33t uber-typist!
Today fumble fingers – tommorrow.. ze world!
G’night Rob!
Cat asked,” Any details on where Mississippi stands on the economic spectrum?”
The word you’re after is “rooted” – never quite recovered from that whole civil war thing – although there were hints of a resurgence in WW2 and the 60s.Just didn’t quite pan out .
Do it! Make me proud.
182
Catrina
They’ve got booze laws that are really all over the shop (except Sundays! LOL) but this is truly amazing:
Mississippi is one of only a few states to have decriminalized the possession of marijuana, so that possession of 30 grams or less of marijuana is punishable only by a fine of $100 – $250 for the first offense with no jail time.
…how odd.
Poss
Considering you still retain amateur status and aren’t accepting google ads or site donations, we shall forgive your momentary incompetance.
Continue on.
183
Robert Bollard
Haha, very funny.
Possum at 186 and Kirrie before that
So what’s with this overwight thing? If conditions are really that bad – how come we don’t have lots and lots of skinny Mississippi kids running around in the dirt?
well Possum , scolling back there is a suggestion i think perhaps the 75% refers to MN , thats a solid blue State for both Hillary & Obama & usually in the past as well , so 75% seems conservative to me
182
Catrina
I’d have guessed it was something like what Poss said, but he already has.
Aw, come on Harry – you could at least smite me!
Kirri at 188
To put this into perspective – I need to know what 30 grams is going to set me back in Mississippi.
Shit food is the cheapest food cat. Poverty and obesity is highly correlated throughout the western world.
191
Catrina
Big Macs
poor=fat=cheap calories=low fitness=blob
…in front of the telly!
Poss, you get to say SNAP
Sheesh, I’m just not quick enough
Beat you by a Mississippi minute KR! Which at the going rate is about 900 calories
Is this a fact or a behavioral consequence?
194
Possum Comitatus
RSPCA would be down on him like a tonne of bricks mate!
Cat – both. They seem to create a feedback loop that reinforces each.
Out of here.
night
I mean – I can put together a brilliant meal for just a few dollars. And if I could proove my economic point then I’m proving a sociological point. If that’s right – then we are into all of this ‘change’ stuff – i.e. changing population behavior.
Cat
Butyou burn a few calories cooking and washing up after that fine cheap homemade meal.
No burning calories in the drive thru at Macca’s
Possum Comitatus
#184I “stuffed up the Systat numbering regime”
#194″aw, come on Harry – you could at least smite me!”
I’m HarryH , is that the same program thats got the near perfect prediction markets % success rate on it ? You did ask to be smite..d to repent
Its the great irony – the cheapest food is actually healthy food if you get into the habit of food preparation. But processed foods are only slightly more expensive, and certainly cheaper than fresh meat, that it leads to processed foods dominating the diet of the poor, which leads to health problems – as well as intergenerational effects where kids grow up not knowing how to prepare healthy food.. so it continues on and on. Add to that the cultural framing of fastfood being not only normal, but somehow socially superior – if you’re a fat, poor 13 year old kid, that’s the kind of message your ears are going to be pricked to hearing.
Gotta dash – till tomorrow folks, adious
Did McCain really vote for Al Gore in 2000? Or was he just pretending? Read what Josh and Toby heard at dinner…..What a hoot!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/05/josh-and-toby-w.html
HarryH at 205
Yes – I agree – but I object. Just on principal, going through the motions, creating something terrific, the ingredients, the aroma, the process, the drama, the execution – these are things that create the moment – and then the taste, the garnish, the smiles, the compliments, at least a couple of people asking for more, and every plate at the end of the night is as clean as a whistle.
*sigh*
Possum
#207
“Add to that the cultural framing of fastfood being not only normal, but somehow socially superior”
’socially superior’ ? what a gem of words , to pass onto the Ivory tower set to explain their socially ’superior thinking’ as they much caviar big Macs. They ill just love that. Told you Robert that wok excluded you from the ‘elitist’ set
210 Catrina
Do you home deliver?….and carry more than $20 in change?
HarryH at 212
Are you trying to sweet talk me?
I want it on record that that I accept nothing less that a $100 bill when we start talking about loose change!
*pout*
What is the message here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjYpkvcmog0
And Hillary is accountable.
Pat Buchanan on Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24828125#24828125
I love these moments …
#149 – Robert Bollard Says: [I can’t get over the fact that a Governor of Kansas is named after a Finnish composer] – RB, just for the record, i did not have SEX with that woman’s mother. I did put a SAX as the fifth harmony just above the 5/12 line.
It appears dear ol’ Mumble and Simon Jackman can only see doom for the Obama campaign:
http://www.mumble.com.au/
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=744
The reason? He’s black! I guess all those who voted for him in the primaries hadn’t noticed.
So much for the Hillarious line that Obama is not electable. Survey USA posts Obama with a 48/39 advantage over McCain in a straight 2-way choice. The onslaught is coming: bye bye to the Republican era.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b03c08ab-30b9-463d-8be2-5cb118e05b74
Re Mumble: and before GG, Finns and Ron get too excitied by Mumble’s opinion, he never gave Hillary any chance of beating the Republicans either (or of McCain winning the GOP nomination).
FG, couple of points. First, Mumble was betting on the Huckster to be next President earlier this year. Second, his piece seems an outsider looking in superficial analysis along the line of ‘WOT? A BLACK GUY?’, which most people got over sometime in 2007, and which also discounts the fact that Obama has won the whitest as well as the blackest states in this primary season against Clinton. Given that has rode through several ‘he’s a scary black guy’ moments so far (Wright, the ‘dressed’ photo, he’s not a muslim ‘as far as I know’ etc.) Mumble’s piece remains pretty shallow stuff.
With regards to Jackman, he presents a slightly more interesting case, but it is straight from the Clinton playbook, and refers just to primary support. It has nothing to do with how the General will play out. He lets his cards show a little in his last paragraph when he says “I’ve been asking people to tell me the states they think Obama will take from McCain”…and then links to (you guessed it!) electoral-vote.com.
Looks to me like Jackman got burnt supporting Clinton, and Mumble is talking sh!t.
Ferny, Mumble’s musings are just that: the speculations of an “opinionist”. America is changing and Obama’s success is a manifestation of this. Like Possum says, look at the data….
For those with an interest in historical trivia, here’s Centrebet’s odds from:
17 January 2007 – the top 6
Clinton 3.25
McCain 5.00
Obama 6.00
Edwards 9.00
Guiliani 11.00
Gore 11.00
And on 2 April 2007
CLINTON, Hillary 3.25
OBAMA, Barack 4.25
GIULIANI, Rudolph 5.00
McCAIN, John 7.00
GORE, Al 9.00
EDWARDS, John 10.00
“I have nothing but the greatest admiration for Senator Obama and would be proud to serve the American people alongside him.”
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080522_ready_to_cheer/
13 Harold
Thanks for that. The genocide in Rwanda is relevant to this election. As you know, the Hutu majority killed 800,000 Tutsi’s at the rate of 10,000 a day. Bill Clinton was fully aware of the massacre and did not intervene. In fact, he insisted that the UN reomove its peace-keepers given the political problems of “Black Hawk Down” in Somalia. He even had the cheek to land in Rwanda after the genocide and say that, in retrospect, he wished that he had done more. HE DIDN’T DO ANYTHING. HE HELPED IT HAPPEN.
During this campaign, Hillary of course has said she tried to get Bill to intervene which she cites as evidence of her foreign policy expertise. There is not a single soul who can remember her ever mentioning that the US shuold intervene in Rwanda.
Romeo Dallaire has an appalling case of PTSD as a result of what he saw and tried to do, without the help of the UN. He is a broken man.
219
Ferny Grover
What Pancho said! LOL
Essentially the exclamation “but he’s black!” has been over cooked.
As one of the bloggers says on Jackman, assume most of the Democrats who will NOT vote for Obama BECAUSE he is black will just NOT VOTE. A very small percentage will likely actually swap parties to vote for McCain. It would be a very peculiar ‘protest vote’ against your preferred party to vote for someone so diametrically opposed as McCain, but hey, I’ll concede there will be some. My guess is it would only be a very small percentage of those who are HRC supporters.
Against that is Obama’s ability to bring out the young, the previously apathetic, the minorities.
Will he offset the losses that his ‘blackness’ will supposedly cause him? My hunch is yes, but it’s probably impossible to verify. Exit polling would be the only way to measure such a thing ie after the event.
“It would be a very peculiar ‘protest vote’ against your preferred party to vote for someone so diametrically opposed as McCain,”
Big Statement!
Never heard of Reagan Democrats?
Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far. I have posted here about whether US voters are ready to elect a black (well half-black to be precise) president. The Dem primaries suggest yes, the polls suggest yes, so I am not as pessimistic. I think the Muslim thing needs to be confronted head-on as there is still misperception amongst some that he is a Muslim
Ah Gruffy, good morning to you.
Yearning for the good old days are we? In case you haven’t noticed, it’s 2008, and this is literally the arse-end of Reaganism, since the Idiot Decider, who claimed to be one, murdered it with 8 years of monumental stupidity and incompetence.
When you’ve worked out which century we are in, see if you can’t answer that question for yourself. You might be able to, with effort.
(And who said a little knowledge was dangerous, eh?)
I also think that Bush and the Repugs are so on the nose that Dem and independent voters will back the Dem candidate regardless of colour
Are there any odds on Obama’s VP choice?
Andrew,
Ben Smith has some interesting data concerning the muslim question. 10% of Americans still think Obama is a muslim, but 18% think that the sun revolves around the earth. You can lead a horse-brained moron to knowledge, but you can’t make him think. I don’t reckon this is one to worry to much about, when seen in this perspective.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
231
Andrew
When 80% say the country is heading down the toilet, you get the feeling ‘change’ is in the air! LOL
By the way, these polls are at historical extremes, and for good reason, the country is in extreme distress. Everything from consumer confidence numbers to housing foreclosures show extremes, and all this against a backdrop of rising costs of living and stagnant wages.
Voters will be wanting to wallop someone, and the Republicans are already bracing themselves for it.
“Reagan Democrats”….that’s really funny, it’s almost black and white TV type funny.
The world has changed in a BIG way, and for the US, they’ve slipped off the perch on so many metrics it ain’t funny, so a crumby old cowboy like Reagan can’t just do the ‘aw shucks ain’t we the greatest nation on earth’ schtick and get away with it.
Even Americans are starting to realise they aren’t any more…and that’s taken some doing for them! LOL
Andrew: I agree with you, it’s not a good year to be a Republican running for reelection. The results of the recent special elections prove that the GOP could be in for a hammering in November. McCain is really going to have to run as almost an anti Republican-pseudo Democrat if he’s got any chance.
Kirribilli: G’day to you too buddy!
So, do we agree that June 3 will be the day Hillary concedes?
232
Progressive
Intrade, use the 2008 Elections link in the left menu and then select Dem VP
KR,
Boo!
233
Pancho
Many years ago I had a saying: you can lead a hippy to happiness but you cannot make him think.
Variation on the theme.
236
Progressive
What? And waste a chance that Obama may cop a bullet between then and the convention?
Are you kidding me? LOL
Nah, she’ll probably weasel along trying to ‘prove’ she’s the best candidate and besides Obama hasn’t ‘won’ really, he’s just got the most delegates and…
(fill in whatever crap you want to! LOL)
I don’t actually think she wants the public humiliation of the convention discarding her, so yes, I assume she will concede before then, but not June 3rd. She’ll go fester for a few days, or weeks, but then, after sending out the signals, she’ll bow out.
Dying in Denver would be way too humiliating, but hey, she does ‘embarrassing’ pretty well, so who knows? Maybe she’ll do it, but I think her minders will have to sedate her and carry her away by then.
Before the convention is my feeling.
238
Greensborough Growler
That’s it Gruffy, now put some consonants with it and you’ve actually formed an entire word.
Come on boy, you can do it, we know you can! LOL
Kirribilli: thanks mate!
If Hillary doesn’t concede on June 3, I’d expect a shitload of so far undeclared superdelegates will come out and declare for Obama(Carter, Gore, Pelosi etc).
Hillary supporters here, I admire your loyalty to her, but she’s finished, admit it LOL
Has Ron learnt how to spell yet? I’d take his comments more seriously if I could understand what’s he going on about LOL
Red State Update: Sayonara Karl Rove
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WWNb1CBiMY
I’ve a hunch that Gore will not endorse anyone. Environmental gurus have to stay above the fray.
But then, I didn’t think Edwards would endorse anyone either.
I’m sure Gore won’t endorse Hillary: a lot of bad blood between him and the Clintons. He’ll probably act as the party elder and unifying figure at the convention.
As for Edwards, methinks Obama dangled the Attorney General carrot before him .
And Obama also signed up to Edward’s anti poverty agenda.
Edwards won’t be VP, but he’s going to campaign hard for Obama in certain places, and the Obama people think they can win North Carolina this time(Edward’s home state). I’d expect Edwards to be either Attorney General or Secretary of Labor.
FG @ 219,
I must admit I admire the tenacity of spirit that allows the Obama supporters to cling to their canards about their favourite even when confronted with facts and informed opinion to the contrary. It is highly amusing when psephological craftsmen such as Brent and Jackman have their credibility questioned and motives debased simply because they are out of line with the Gospel according to the Obamists.
Putting race to one side, Obama also has problems with religion (Yes, Uncle jerry will re emerge) and his drug taking background. These issues go to the man’s character. Experience is also an issue that will dog Obama. There is also the historical fact that depite the chagrin of the Liberal left, US voters keep on electing right wing Repubican candidates as POTUS.
McCain’s age is obviously a factor. Dissociating himself from the mistakes of the current Republican regime is another. Holding on to the Christian base that has supported successive administrations is a further problem he must address. Can he change things. Maybe he can!
The Dems may win this year, but at this stage it is too close to call.
The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger.
Perhaps Hillary could be persuaded as Special Roving Ambassador for Mis-spokenness. Toss in a few sweeteners; Air Force 3, a “soft” Senate seat for Chelsea in 2010, and The Party picks up her campaign tab.
OTOH, she could be really getting off on the martyrdom trip. Stranger things have happened. Maybe HRC won’t get her motor really hummin’ till the moment of abject political humiliation. Some politicians seem to go to exraordinary lengths to gratify themselves in this fashion.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/26/when_was_the_1992_presidential_race_over.html
Just heard Neoconservative guru, Francis Fukyama on ABC radio distancing himself majorly from BushCo and doesn’t want to see a Republican re-elected, suggests Obi is the best man for the top job, and BHO as President symbolises America’s ability to renew itself.
GOPpers are so yesterday in tomorrow’s America.
GG, no candidate is perfect. I reject your comments about Obama supporters as I have posted my concerns about the race and Wright issues. Do you concede that Hillary had limitations too, a lot of baggage and greater negative ratings in terms of honesty, so she was far from perfect (and the party rejected her also of course).
A breath of fresh air from my moderate friends at counterpunch. (Apologies to GG)
With the walls closing in around her, Hillary unveiled a final argument: Karl Rove, the man John Conyers wants to put in leg-irons in the crypt of the Capitol, says she’s the better candidate against McCain. Rove also swore there were weapons of mass destruction. Clinton fell for that one, too.
The Clinton camp has become so entrenched in their racial rhetoric that I’ve begun to wonder if they begin their morning strategy sessions with a screening of the Rodney King beating tape as a motivational tool.
The Gothic Politics of Hillary Clinton
http://www.counterpunch.org/stclair05212008.html
“Experience is also an issue that will dog Obama.”
GG, Obama has successfully defused that grenade by pointing out that all the accumulated experience in the Bush White House hasn’t done so well. People like Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz etc had oodles of foreign policy “experience”, yet they dumped America into the unmitigated disaster that is Iraq. Afghanistan ain’t going too well either.
Q: When Bush leaves office, which Muslim state will be left as the most influential and stable state in the region? A: Iran. Well done.
Andrew,
I am shocked you reject my comments. Should I now indulge in a KR like rant questioning your intelligence?
All candidates have personal limitations. It is just the things you rate as important are not so important to me. I believe the “honesty” issue has been over rated and I could build similar cases re Obama’s character. Of course, you would not agree, but that is fine by me.
Both Hillary and Obama have gathered 17-18 million votes by the end of the campaign. Hardly see that as a rejection for either candidate. Of course, a winner will emerge. But despite the incessant rhetoric to the contrary, who that is has not been decided.
Cheers.
“There is also the historical fact that depite the chagrin of the Liberal left, US voters keep on electing right wing Repubican candidates as POTUS.”
Lately, American voters have been studiously avoiding electing Republican candidates into Congress. 4 special elections (”by elections”) have been held this year, when the seats became open due to the departure of the sitting Republican members. The Dems have won 3/4 of these seats – 1 each in Illinois, Lousiana and Mississippi, all in (previously) very safe Republican districts. What’s more, the Republican sleaze machine used Obama in their campaign ads for these special elections, and tried to tie the Dem candidates to Obama and his “liberal” policies. As a campaign strategy, it backfired badly. Obama turned out to be a positive, and voters turned out in droves to vote against the Republican candidate – even in Mississippi. Black voters are especially energised – which is how the Dems hope to pick up a few southern states (incl. N. Carolina, as someone mentioned). If McCain can’t get the Religious Right out to vote, there’s no way the GOP can counter that.
Re: the mumble and Simon Jackman articles: the ‘ordinary white American people won’t vote for a black man’ line is over-simplistic because it presumes uniformity in a very heterogeneous country (both generally, and on this issue).
The truth on the racial aspect of this Presidential contest on the evidence to date is as follows:
1. Rural white voters in the SE will not vote for this black man (barring an unexpected change of heart). These are largely safe-red states that the Dems lost in 2004 and mostly would have been lost by HRC (notable exception Florida, which would have been a 50/50). Despite his weakness with this demographic, he is some chance of winning Virginia and NC (and, more remotely, SC). If he does, it will be because the numbers of black and white urban voters who support O, simply overwhelm the white rural voters. The fact that Obama is some chance of actually gaining states that are located in the weakest part of the country for him (at least in terms of the anti-black vote), highlights how he is really going to pose electoral-vote problems for McC.
2. White voters in the NE and California, support him in sufficient numbers that safe Dem states will stay safe. There is no electorally-significant anti-black vote in those states.
3. Voters in the Pacific northwest, Rocky Mountain states and midwest absolutely love him to bits (compared with other Dems). And they’re white as the driven snow.
4. Voters in the SW like him around about as much as any white equivalent (i.e. any anti-black racial factor is cancelled out by pro-this-guy sentiment). And (while O stacks up fairly evenly with HRC), who cares about Texas? It was and is a Dem loser regardless of the candidate (barring a Reagan-slide in reverse).
5. The real deal-breaker-or-maker is how voters in the mideast/Great Lakes take to him. There is a lot of internal variation among those states; but there’s no real evidence that those states where he is behind where HRC would be (e.g. Ohio) is due to the ‘black man’ thing, rather than just being due to the fact that rust-belt working-class voters were HRC’s natural constituency and he still has to win them over. That is to say: you don’t need the skin-whitener. You just need to stop drinking the lattes.
I wish that mumble.com.au had comments.
Simon Jackman’s thing is more scholarly. However, it doesn’t establish (nor does it seek to establish) that Obama is likely to lose because he is a black man; and mumble misreads it if he uses it for that purpose. Jackman simply establishes that racially resentful whites were more likely to vote for HRC (no shock there). He then notes the figure of 31% of HRC voters who have claimed they will support McC instead, while correctly noting that such a figure (apparently obtained in March!) during a hotly contested primary, many months out from the election, is highly dubious. He concludes by doubling back by way of speculation: that if even half of that HRC-but-not-Obama sentiment holds, it will cause him major worries.
However, that’s just a guy speculatin’. There is no basis for concluding that ‘half’ of that 31% will actually turn out for McC, and even if there were, the real question would be, ‘Where?’ If 15% (or more) of HRC’s support base in Arkansas, West Virginia and Mississippi are going to vote for McC, the Dems would say, ‘Go crazy! Do your worst!’
Furthermore, it was completely rational for voters in any open or semi-open primary to go with the Dem primary and not the Repub; they wanted to have a say in a real live contest. Many people who voted for both HRC and Obama in the primaries (in open-primary states) are going to vote for McC in November. Because they are committed Repubs (or at least strongly lean Repub) and were always going to.
And the closer, “Who won the presidency without winning Ohio?” is just the sort of coincidence-masquerading-as-causation that has been discredited on this site (and others). The real question (as he tacitly acknowledges in the sentences above) is, “Who won the presidency without winning 270 electoral college votes?” How the winner gets there is up to them.
The problem with some of those making predictions is that they assume cultural attitudes and beliefs remain static over time.
Therefore, they claim Obama can’t get elected due to 1) inherent racism (Obama is Black); 2) inherent conservatism (Obama seems progressive); 3) inherent propensity to fall for smear attacks (Obama vs. Wright).
But culture is dynamic. It changes over time, sometimes quickly. So, if attitudes change in the U.S. for whatever reason, then the existing set of “rules” no longer apply.
You can only make sound predictions by factoring in changes in the attitudes of the people. Are they still as racist as they used to be? Would they overlook race in favour of something else? Are they still so easily fooled by smear tactics? Are they still wanting conservatism as much as they used to? And so on…
I believe the U.S. is undergoing a great deal of change right now, and there are many reasons why. Obama’s ability to trump Hillary, despite her profile, funds, and other resources, is an indication of this change.
This is how people like Adam got it so horribly wrong (and I will put Brent in the same category after the election this year). They assume society is the same today as it was over the past twenty years, and therefore apply all the same old rules. In Adam’s case, the variables seemed to fall together to point to an easy win for Hillary in the primaries, and he was so confident of this, he poured scorn over the rest of us who suggested otherwise.
Meanwhile, many Hillary supporters have been making the same mistake by assuming that Hillary gives the Dems the best chance of winning in Nov. She doesn’t. She gives them a WORSE chance of winning because society is changing in a direction that no longer supports the kind of politics that Hillary plays, and if you look closely at this primary season, all the evidence of this change is right there.
Obama will win in Nov. And then it will take the MSM another year or two to work out how he managed to do it when all the “rules” seemed to go against him…
GG @ 248: “It is highly amusing when psephological craftsmen such as Brent and Jackman have their credibility questioned and motives debased simply because they are out of line with the Gospel according to the Obamists.” The tragedy is that you’re actually serious.
All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?
Mumble, in my opinion, based his view on a combination of his generalised beliefs about American voters’ racial biases (i.e. not supported by any particular evidence) and a misreading of what the Jackman research actually establishes. I don’t think that, if he read that opinion, he would fear for his safety or cry into his pillow tonight.
Kakuru,
Disagree. Experience has not been defused as an issue.
McCain is probably the most qualified candidate to run for POTUS in an awful long time. And, the road he has travelled in life has not been easy. Experience is important because it is a factor in a person’s judgement. When push comes to shove this issue will break for McCain (less so for Hillary, but definately against Obama).
If you think “McCain is the most qualified person to be POTUS in an awful long time” you are more delusional than i thought you were.
He is a war hero…….and that’s about it.
Major economic troubles have hit America and this guy has admitted he knows jack about the economy.
He is a dud candidate. He is 72yo and presents terribly. He will get slaughtered during the campaign.
He does not exude “change”. And whether you like it or not, that is what will win this election..”change”…..not “race”…not “liberalism latte sipping”….not……..
“In an eerie echo of the “Brooks Brothers riot” depicted in the HBO movie, when shouting Bush operatives and Republican congressional staffers who had been dispatched to Florida managed to shut down the Miami-Dade County recount, CNN reported on Thursday that Clinton supporters “are planning to swarm the capital in a little over a week to pressure Democratic Party leaders as they gather to decide the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations.” In 2000, the candidate most willing to deploy principles and trash them, according to the tactical needs of the moment, was awarded the prize. In 2008, maybe not. ?”
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/06/02/080602taco_talk_hertzberg
SimonH,
See 222 and 219 has a smidge of gratuitous insult IMHO.
But certainly not your piece. Agree, that Andrew engaged sensibly.
Cheers.
GG, I can’t see Hillary as president going down in history as one of the world’s great leaders. Nor McCain. Obama might not either, but at this stage he does seem to have the most potential to turn out to be something special. That’s enough for me to want to see him win the nomination and let’s see what happens. If nothing else it’s time the US had a president who can at least speak eloquently.
BTW, what happened to your ‘eee’?
HarryH,
Senator for 25 plus years? Ran for President in 2000? Totally irrelevant I know.
Please tell me what could convince doubtful voters about Obama’s judgement and experience?
Triton,
Won’t know till any of those events happen.
I thought US Presidents had planes to deliver their eloquence.
“eee” is a secret. If you find out, you have to buy me a Christmas present.
#
249
Edward StJohn Says:
May 27th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger.
… it looks like Eddy has finally got it! LOL
Yep, the Crown Princess of the Democratic Nomination 2008 is now hanging over a cliff by some very thin threads eg her “electahillability” and a possible bullet trajectory.
Finally, Eddy is facing the facts.
(I’ll just be happy to collect my winnings and watch Eddy go down on the losing YET AGAIN! LOL)
Yeah, and Fooky (to his friends? LOL) is a registered Republican. I like the way he summed it up: there will be a lot of us this year.
So another antidote to Obama’s ‘blackness’? Republicans who actually think, and have decided their party is a stinking corpse.
A fine sense of smell can lead people to the correct conclusion it seems.
267 That’s in reply to you above Ecky, by the way.
GG says: “McCain is probably the most qualified candidate to run for POTUS in an awful long time. And, the road he has travelled in life has not been easy. Experience is important because it is a factor in a person’s judgement. When push comes to shove this issue will break for McCain (less so for Hillary, but definately against Obama).”
Disagree with GG 100%. Agree with HarryH 100%. When I was living in Iowa in 2006, I was in the audience of a filming of an interview of McCain by Chris Mathews, and I saw the man himself. McCain is a lightweight when it comes to most substantive issues, including the economy and foreign policy. He may have “experience”, in terms of being a long-time senator and a decorated war veteran and prisoner. But on the issues, McCain is all over the shop. It’s actually a little frightening. Just look at his botched attempts to woo the Religious Right. Is he with them or against them? He can’t seem to decide. “Experience”, my foot.
GG
Robert Byrd has been a senator for about 125 years.Experience is problematic, just like everything else.
You have to be on top of the issues…and John McCain isn’t.
Obama is the superior candidate for this election and national mood. McCain would have been ok in 04 when the economy was humming, the war was thought to be winnable and the Republican brand wasn’t in the trashcan. But in 08 he is in big trouble.
Obama is the right candidate for this election. Don’t get me wrong, race is still a minor issue in America. If he was white he would win by slightly more, but he will still win comfortably.
It will be a step forward for America when Barack Obama is elected President.
256
SimonH
Good post, and I agree with most of what you’ve said.
However I’m curious as to why Ohio is being cited as the litmus state. On current polls (like electoral vote,com for example) Ohio has Obama and Clinton ahead of McCain, but intrade has it by the widest margin, 60/40 for the Dems.
I wouldn’t be counting on it if I was McCain, and Obama will drive the enrollments and getting the independents firing.
McCain will know that a Republican presidential candidate has never won the White House without winning Ohio. He might worry about that! LOL
My opinion isn’t based on Simon Jackman’s post. I linked to him because it was relevant/related.
I have no data to back up what I wrote; it’s just “what I reckon”.
Just a point on current polls:
At the moment the question is being asked:
Will you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama?
Will you vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton?
They are currently both ahead of McCain.
Imagine what the percentages will be when it is:
Will you vote for Democrat Party or Republican Party?
We will be in Rudd territory…55/45+
and there is no way you can win the electoral college from that position.
272
Peter Brent
Thanks for clarifying!
Can we call it a ‘mumble’ rather than an opinion based on anything? LOL
Harry, if I remember rightly Bush was behind Kerry by 10 points at one point during the 04 election
Ferny
I can only say again…04 is not 08. The mood has totally changed. Independants and some Democrats held their nose and put faith in the current administration to win the War on Terror.
They had no economic fears to factor into that vote.
In the ensuing 4 years Bush trashed that faith.
And there is NO WAY McCain will turn out the base like Bush did in 04.
And the Democrats, mainly thru Obama, have expanded their base significantly.
Roll on November.
HarryH,
You gotta admit your predictions have been very unreliable to date.
“”On April 7, we also won in Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. On April 9, Paul Tsongas announced that he would not reenter the race. The fight for the nomination was effectively over,” – Bill Clinton in his autobiography.
So much for the June bullshit.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
HarryH,
I’d have to agree with GG, you seem to have a large case of hope over reality.
Ohio had a very large voter turnout jump between 2000 and 2004 (nearly 0.9m extra votes),
but it was still only about mid sixties percent of eligible voters (probably quite good by
US standards)
Kerry lost on just a bit under 120,000 votes, but lets assume the turnout is even bigger
this time, and just compare primary voting patterns in the last four years:
Total Dem Primary Vote in Ohio 2008/2004: 2,354,721 1,221,026
Total Rep Priamry Vote in Ohio 2008/2004: 1,010,131 1,365,962
As we can readily see, Dem primary numbers this year almost doubled, and Republican numbers
dropped by about 35%.
There’s no definitve way to assume that these numbers will apply to the general election, but it must indicate that the Dem base has grown, is fired up to vote, and the opposite is true for the Republicans.
You’d have to put the Dems in front to win, even without looking at the polls or intrade.
279
Edward StJohn
Playing with Gruffy again Eddy? Mind you wash your hands after all the finger painting, won’t you?
There’s a good boy.
ESJ – gotta step in here pal. What is your streak? Howard, Clinton…are there any before or after that I’m missing or is it just 0 from 2 on this board? If we were to get all psephy, I guess that ain’t too much data to be working with, but you still appear to be idling at the starting point.
Pancho,
Any comments about KR’s septy contributions.
GG and Eddy disagree with me…..i’ve never felt more comfortable.
The only prediction i’ve got wrong is Hillary’s withdrawal. I’d say my prediction rate is a couple furlongs ahead of you two jokers lately.
Continue on comrades.
280
Not really. McCain was obviously the Republican nominee by then and the race was still going for the Dems. Whereas in 2004 Kerry had it all wrapped up by March. I don’t think you can really use those numbers to compare. Ohio will be close.
GG – no, only the Novembery ones.
#249 – Edward StJohn Says: [The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger] – ESJ, Obama has destroyed the Dems’ Mandate from Heaven to govern for the next 2 terms at the least.
#221 – Ferny Grover Says: [Re Mumble: and before GG, Finns and Ron get too excitied by Mumble’s opinion] – FG, why should i? i been mumbling and rumbling about this long before the Mumble’s stumble and mumble. Poor Jackman, he was once the darling of the Obamabots here during the Fed election.
#258 – SH: [All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?] Tip hat and Well said Simon. It looks like my parrot has stuffed it up again.
Pancho,
Touche, LOL.
Finns and Simon
RE this
[#258 - SH: [All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?] Tip hat and Well said Simon. It looks like my parrot has stuffed it up again.]
To be fair to Andrew, i don’t think he was saying that Mr Brent had nefarious motives in raising Obama’s colour. I think he was trying to say he was overestimating its significance.
#289, YHH, i take full responsibility for the parrot. i will take the blame for not training him properly. i promise to try harder.
*tosses Finns a sarcasm detector
now go back and re-read SimonH’s #258 and his use of Andrew’s comment.
not sure if any of this quote has been posted here.
June 4 sounds good…
At the weekend, former president Jimmy Carter, one of the undeclared super-delegates in the Democratic Party, said the race was likely to finish soon after the last primaries on June 3, when victory would be delivered to Senator Obama.
“I’m a super-delegate, having been president before, and I think that a lot of us super-delegates will make a decision … quite rapidly, after the final primary on June 3,” Mr Carter told Sky News.
“I think at that point it will be time for (Senator Clinton) to give it up.”
Have been looking at the turnouts at http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
It seems that in recent times, the turnout has hovered around the 50% mark pretty regularly. Not since the late 60s, early 70s has it approached 60% mark. I know that the dem. primary numbers have been really high, but is there anything other than our own excitement to suggest that the November numbers will be high? Has anyone seen anything that links primary numbers to turnout numbers?
285
Phil
Ohio and Texas Rep Primary was March 4th, and Mitt, Thompson, Ron Paul and Huckabee all garnered votes.
Huckabee officially then withdrew, so I doubt you’d say that it was ‘all sown up’ by the Ohio Rep primary.
OK, I’ll go back and look at some of the dates before Mar 4th for comparison.
Ferny , Andrew , Pancho & Blindoptimist , codger etc
Ferny Grover #219
“It appears dear ol’ Mumble and Simon Jackman can only see doom for the Obama campaign.The reason? He’s black! I guess all those who voted for him in the primaries hadn’t noticed”
Andrew #229
“Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far”
“Pancho #222 & Blindoptimist #229 also only disagreed with Mumble & Jackman”
How can you guys reconcile your differing standard
You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.
Yet yous have been quite happy to not only fiercely condemn me and call me or imply I’m a racist even though I’ve NEVER said what either Mumble or Jackman have said and yous let thm off lightly (I won’t)
What I’ve said is 7 points.
Firstly , Obama’ delegate lead itself is the result of Obama gaining 90%+ black votes against a fellow white Democrat in key high black voter Primarys. I am stating a statistical demographic fact , (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Second , I’ve queried what policys the black Democrat Obama had , that were so superior to the white democrat Hillary 2 result in Obama getting 90%+ black votes from black Democrat voters (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Third, Obama has a monority of the white, Hispanci & Asian vote. I am stating a statistical demographic fact (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Four, I’ve statd these white/hispanic/asian Obama % minority votes stats destroy the credibility of Obama’s central theme of ‘”racial harmony” and ‘a more complete Union’ Obama key message (unlike Mumble/ Jackman
Fivfth , I’ve said Obama gets less white votes in big black vote States. I am stating a statistical demographic fact (unlike Mumble & Jackman). The more obviously black a community was the lower the black vote. To uninformd responses , I explained the reasons & why it wasn’t racism (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Sixth , crucially I’ve also stated repeatedly that Obama gets more white votes in small black vote States than big black States ( a few ties even more than Hillary) and explained the reasons saying its not race but many reasons including more affluent demogrophics
Seven , I’ve said Obama has played the democrat system (through silence) via these (90%+ black votes. The Democrat Party’s delegate race system was designed to pick the “best” candidate from Democrat registered voters, assuming there was no ‘race color’ as a prime factor.This time per point 1/ it has been. I said next time 2012 it may be a ‘Hispanic’ and with the same ‘delegates won’ distortion. I’ve said any downtrodden ethnic minoritys vote will be influenced by their ‘own’ unless the Candidate seriously makes it an issue not to do (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
I’ve also said Obama can not win FL due to the hispanic and j.e.wish voting blocs. Yous regard my above opinions as racist , and thats your perogative to think that and I’m not objecting. Howev I do not understand why Mumble & Jackson’s comments (see my first paragraph) would not be regarded by your standards to me as being worthy of stronger ‘disagreement’ , seeing ‘racist’ is a term freely used here
For mine , Mumble : his statement is a crude sweeping Nationality ‘racist’ slur with a lame caveat and , at best an election conclusion based on an ignorant sweeping statement without evidence . Jackson uses a clumsy divisive term ‘racial resentment’ for his chart like a Newspaper headline and his charts & graphs are based on total National black vs others votes to conclude racial resentment is one of the few attitudinal predictors (and is a powerful predictor) of the Obama/Clinton break.Not at all , in a huge no. of the Primarys (if Jackson had used State rather than National figures) one can see its not a predictor at all because there are hardly any black voters there , making all his charts/graphs questionable value. Secondly there are numerous other important predictors of the vote split , none of which were mentioned. Not only is the conclusion faulty ( in a huge no. of the States its inapplicable to) but the racial resentment term was divisive & because racial resentment itself was whole thrust of the article many uninformed readers would draw a false racial resentment (‘bitter’) view of black people. So Mumble & Jackson , I think your handling of the black issue was appalling
knowing sweet FA about chat rooms etc, why would I/you choose to do that rather than post on this site?
296
Jen
You could, for example, have long scintillating discussions with Ron.
William
Can bludgers be sent to the chatroom if they want to continue a sadomasochistic discussion? How does it work?
HarryH, Pancho et al
I picked Labor to win the Federal election – from early August onward. Happy for you to endulge your prejudices but its a matter of record.
2008 – should be a Democratic year. No question the US is badly on the nose and the Republicans are rightly being punished. The question is why are they even competitive.
Why?
A presumptive nominee who will win his party’s nomination with a minority of votes and excluding 2 swing states from the process.
Who will be suspect with the j.wish vote.
Who has seperatist associations – weather underground, the good reverend etc.
Who has minimal policy positions etc
Who is black
and yes he (BHO) has turned a sure thing into a close run thing.
I wonder if McCain will role the dice and say I am in it for one term and to get us out of Iraq honourably – it may actually be a very tempting stop gap option in the states.
Intersting the swing states in INTRADE, Ohio, Missouri, Florida and Virginia. These are not “hope” orientated states.
Maybe BHO should go the whole hog and name Deval Patrick as his running mate.
I can only ask that they do so, Diogs, and that certainly was the idea in putting up the link. I’m not surprised though that I’m not having much luck.
Ron:
“You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.”
I called it a ‘mumble’ rather an opinion based on anything.
Doesn’t that qualify?
If you want ‘fierce condemnation’ should I also growl?
What would you suggest? Whips? Bludgeons?
What?
Diogenes, Vale Sydney Pollack!
ESJ, in response:
Well, not according to 5 of the 6 possible permutations of the popular vote, according to Demconwatch. While no doubt most will be bored by going over this again, in all likelihood after PR, he only way that Hillary can claim to win is to count all of the unsanctioned vote in Florida, count Michigan to her 329,000 to 0, and then discount any vote from all caucus states. Putting the votes vs. delegates argument aside for a minute, this argument resides in Hillary fantasyland.
Not according to all the data we have available. I guess the last line of this piece was directed at concerned citizens like yourself.
“Gallup’s tracking poll over April, found that Jewish respondents preferred Obama to Sen. John McCain 61 percent to 32 percent. During April as the Wright controversy exploded, “Rather than declining between March and April,” Gallup writes, “support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).”
Even with this numbers, which are quite convincing, why do I have a feeling we still haven’t heard the last of this…”
http://washingtonindependent.com/view/obamas-jewish-vote
Yikes! I guess it remains to be seen whether the mud will stick but I’d make two points. One, if the Clintons can’t get it happening, I have doubts anyone else can. And two, political ground is shifting. If the US parallels the recent Australian situation in this regard (as it has in much else) fearmongering won’t have the currency it once had come election time.
You can keep believing this, or you could have a look through Obama and Clinton’s sites (or have a read of either of his two books, or a look through his 12 years of legislating at State and Federal level, or decade teaching to get a bit of an idea about him). Or you could understand that the overarching policy differences between Obama and McCain, as they play out on a populist election stage, will be that Obama is against a war that McCain is for, and Obama offers health insurance, which McCain doesn’t. Pretty much what they would be in a Clinton vs. McCain race.
I guess he’s guilty on this front. Unless you want to get all nineteenth century, and we could talk about his white Ma…or twenty first and we could talk about his Hawaiian or Indonesian upbringing.
Come August, when the polling doesn’t shift, you can just tell us he’s gonna win anyway, and it will be there in black and white.
Pancho -
1. Lets see where the popular vote is on 3 June. Dare say he will be behind on the count Florida only score and possibly even the leave Florida out score when you take Puerto Rico into account. After all why should Puerto Rico not count if Idaho counts.
2. 2-1 on the j.wish vote is weak. Lets see where it is when they go to town on him.
3. The Clintons have given him a polish compared to what he will cop. There are some things they cannot do in a dem primary which the republican 527’s will have no qualms about.
4. Yes the books, no ideology there except “hope TM”, yet to see – agree with ronnie on this one.
5. yes virginia there is a bradley effect.
304
Sounds like a McCain victory prediction to me Eddy.
Cmon, out with it.
I’m game. My tip is 300+ electoral college votes for Obama.
HarryH,
Hardluck HarryH the tipster of no renown.
Weren’t the democrats thinking of asking McCain to run as VP in 2004? Obviously has appeal to dem voters, including those who may not like a black president.
Hillary was too honest in voicing her reason for staying in the race, but it is realism, the closer Obama gets to the nominee and potentially POTUS the more likely some redneck will blat him.
300 William
I’m sure there are plenty of bludgers who will be happy to make the suggestion to the combatants to “take it outside to the chat room” if things degenerate into meaningless personal abuse. Of course, if the meaningless personal abuse is directed at Hillary, well that’s another matter.
Rod,
But imagine the almighty myth of BHO that would arise!
A black Kennedy?
Diogenes,
Do you have a mother problem?
Rod, McCain was in discussion with Kerry to be his running mate. There is disagreement about who made the initial overtures, but not that the discussions happened. In my opinion, you are right that this will be an issue, but wrong in thinking it is positive for McCain. This will be wheeled out as the centrepiece of McCain’s flip-flopping records, and it will mightily p1ss off the base that needs as just a starting point.
GG, maybe Diog is suffering the old classic john Lennon syndrome.
Mother, you had me but I never had you,
I wanted you but you didn’t want me,
So I got to tell you,
Goodbye, goodbye.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=85rPsIEHkyU
305
Intrade markets currently predict:
Democrats: 282
Republicans: 234
Undecided: 22
Virginia (13), Nevada (5) and New Hampshire (4) are leaning Republican.
Makes those $2.85 odds for McCain look really juicy atm for anyone that bets.
There’s was movement at the station called electoral-vote.com, on the 24th May Obama took the lead:
Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
And Rassmussen has had Dems ahead on EV’s too:
On Friday, Democrats continue to lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. States with 111 Votes are “leaners,” and states with 38 Votes are Toss-Ups.
When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
Those numbers have remained stable for a long time while the political nation has focused on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, significant shifts are likely in the near future, partly due to an increased focus on the general election and partly due to adjustments currently being made by Rasmussen Reports.
…Rassmussen then goes on to explain how they will be dropping Clinton from their polls.
(Shhhhh, nobody tell Ron! LOL)
Funny, but I don’t recall getting an urgent update reminder from the avid followers of e-v.com that Obama was now ahead of McCain.
Oh, that’s right, of course, because Hillary is going to be the nominee! Of course she is! LOL
314
GWV, that means the punters are more bullish on the Dems than at least one pollster. It sounds like the individual state polls are going to get to some makeovers soon so they may start to follow the market soon.
KR,
Please don’t apologise.
92
The Finnigans Says:
May 26th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Ronnie & Poss, i will leave the two of you to slug it out on poll vs intrade. but i simply find this amazing, it does not matter how you like to spin it. it has been like this for the last couple of months.
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
KR
#301
Ron :“You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman “You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.”
K/R says “I called it a mumble”
Ron: k/r , you are not short of many paragraphs against Hillary or this affiable bloger. I thought yous all were lame. Obama made the same mistake at Philly
Diogenes@308 -
therEed only be 3 people left on the PB site- and one of them is William.
Besides I tried, and it was unintelligible. (Bit like most of what’s been going on here if I think about it.)
GG, i might also add:
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Gruffy:
Except that he was wrong. Obama trailed McCain until May 24th on e-v.com!
So he couldn’t even get a simple fact right, it had NOT been like that for months.
So no, I won’t bother to apologize if you insist I shouldn’t! LOL
KR,
Slippery is you!
Just say you are wrong, we all move on.
Cheers.
GG and Finns
I don’t really think of Hillary as being human, let alone a mother-figure. I see her more as the undead than a real person, a bit like a zombie. Did you know zombies are real?? I’m not making this up!! It’s a medical fact.
Ron, I’d never call you an “affiable bloger” even if I knew what it was! LOL
And what ‘mistake’ was that which you claim Obama made in Philadelphia? Did Obama also fail to “fiercely condemn” Peter Brent?
Quick, shoot him (ooh, sorry bad choice of words!) an email, he may have just forgotten!
Diogenes,
I’ll take that as a yes.
Gruffy, YOU TOLD ME NOT TO APOLOGIZE!
Dear me, Guffster, you aren’t half confusing.
But like I said, Finnster did in fact fail to state the facts. You don’t want me to overlook the facts do you?
Or, maybe, you do! Yes, like Hillary has lost this primary race, yes, lets overlook that fact, shall we, and argue about something else.
Oh yes, lets! LOL
The problem with Obama is not exactly just black and white:
1. As we all know, he is half black and half white. Something that he widely advertised. In the beginning, His halfness made him very acceptable to the Liberal whites and easier to package him. So the ebony/ivory combination works for him here.
2. But that ran into trouble with the “real” black community and he was accused of not being “black enough”. Thank God for Oprah and that fixed the problem, hence the 90%+. Oh, Michelle has been a great asset here as well.
3. Now, how do we “leverage” his white side, as any marketing guru will tell you. How do we get the “deer-hunter” whites into the call to action. Unfortunately for Obama, he was torpedoed before he got started by his Pastor and then by his own Bittergate. So now he is marooned from the deer hunter whites. he is culturally isolated from them. To them, he is a real black, not black/white.
while the deer hunters were singing:
“bye-bye, miss american pie.”
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, “this’ll be the day that I die.
“this’ll be the day that I die.”
And Obama can only lament that:
I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news,
But she just smiled and turned away.
I went down to the sacred store
Where I’d heard the music years before,
But the man there said the music wouldn’t play.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=eNdEu9s5qUU
325
Diogenes
More a cross between Nurse Ratchet and the Alien Mother, wouldn’t you say?
Finns- sad.
Don McLean is a yesterday as your girl.
And don’t you-tube the Beatles – I get it.
diogenes- tell me the real story about zombies!!!
Finn -Regarding Obama not being “black enough”. Oprah didn’t fix it – Bubba did.
Oh dear, now it’s the man from lowly river:
May 05 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 263 Ties 11
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 259 Ties 15
Apr. 19 – Electoral Votes: Obama 260 McCain 254 Ties 24
Saya sudah bilong, kamu orang bodoh sekali (in a lingo that the kid can speak)
KR,
Your significant other will tell you that it is how you don’t apologise that tells her whether you are fair dinkum with your apology.
As you well know, facts are an essential but unimportant component of any debate.
Cheers
Here’s the intrade chart for bets on the Republicans winning the Presidency:
http://data.intrade.com/graphing/temp/chart1206448122923267314.png
…clear trend, with a spasm of excitement when McCain won the nomination, but not enough to get much above 40%.
It’s not pretty. If it was a stock chart you’d be bailing out before the administrators arrived.
Thanks Gruffy, I’ll write that down somewhere, it may be useful..or,maybe not.
Growler- that would be like the apology Hillary made to the Kennedy’s (ooops-forgot to mention Obama).
OK, so I checked out WB latest IRC thingy… well, I reckon its a mess but if you havn’t looked yet heres a sample of the fare…
My own contribution is a good average of what you”l get (i’m being modest here for once)
CLASSIFIED SAYS—-based on readies from the last few week. I think that Kirrabilly Removals(from here on in known as KB) will continue to post many things. Greeensbrough Growler will taunt him and Cat will respond favouribly to KR. DIO will make sense alot of the time and be cool with cool doobies about medical knowledge. Ron will post amazing shitloads of stuff(which no-body) ever reads but he hangs onto the fact that he typed it so, surly SOMEBODY did even if they dont admit it… WB will lose more hair. Obama will get the nom.. might get killed but might get to be prez too…
Jen,
You obviously read all that stuff with Catrina. She is just a good fiend!
Classified – do I take that as “don’t bother – it’s the same as here”?
In which case I won’t try to work out how to get onto the F#$^@#g thing.
Growler – Catrina is a Fiend?? That’s a bit harsh.
and -i don’t what you’re talking about, but I’m getting used to that.
jen, obviously the horsey is still a turn-on. how sad
Someone asked about odds on Sebelius for VP
Intrade has her pretty long, over 10/1, and Zinni fractionally ahead.
It’s Webb then Clinton as the shortest, but both on 5/1 or better.
There’s no really short priced favourite as yet.
I wonder if Novak was just putting landmines down for the Republican retreat, or does he know something about her chances?
GG at 340
I denounce and reject this endorsement.
I girl’s got to protect her reputation you know!
329 Finns
What a sad post.
One can only suggest that your mindset is as old as your tap dancing looked.
It’s very weird, it *might* be funny… but well erm
I pretty sure *you lot* arn’t going to like it… (then again, elitist manic snobs that you are)
May by you’ll like the attention? *jks*
catrina,
I did say you are good.
Finns- how so?
both my feet are planted on the floor- unlike your good lady-friend who appears to habitually have her’s stuck in her oesophagus.
A blasting from Eugene Robinson:
“If this campaign goes on much longer, what will be left of Hillary Clinton?
A woman uniformly described by her close friends as genuine, principled and sane has been reduced to citing the timing of Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination as a reason to stay in the race — an argument that is ungenuine, unprincipled and insane. She vows to keep pushing, perhaps all the way to the convention in August. What manner of disintegration is yet to come?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR2008052601743.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR
Pancho
‘She vows to keep pushing,’
forceps required to drag this thing out, and stop the agony.
Brutal, but necessary for the survival of all.
Pancho,
18 million votes in support. Sort of transcends all the rhetoric and commentary.
What I do find very amusing is this… KB, Jen,GG, DIO Cat etc
and how can we forget(even if we tried) Ron…
You guys are the Pollbludger version of Big Brother!
KB=KR=Kirrabilly removals
but I’m sure you knew that
Oh dear, Huffy has gone soft on Hillary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jill-iscol/how-dare-you_b_103608.html
That biased rag printing yet another opinion piece you like Finns? The regularity is becoming alarming.
Classified – i have never turkey-slapped anyone in my life!
And are you Gretyl?
Jen,
Surely William is Gretel?
Finns-
here’s one who isn’t with her. Disappointed I’m afraid. And there are lots like me.
#256 – Amigo, i think Huffy is warming to Hillary especially Lady Huff herself. dont you think so?
Dio @ 308,
Good idea.
Anything to avoid some of the more pointless exchanges between KR and the Clintonistas being inflicted on us.
ooops- is it GretEl?
never watched it in my like IMConfess.
And Wililiam is God. he giveth and taketh as he sees fit.
jen, [And there are lots like me.] – we know, we know. dont go boasting
351
Jen
If you remember the movie Jen, there’s no need for forceps with Aliens, they self-deliver! LOL
Jen,
I don’t watch it either. But that is how the name is normally spelt.
I must say Classified has come up with a great insight there.
Obama firming on Betfair a little, and McCain easing a bit. Hillary still roughly $20.
Dunno Finns, while the editorial slant has definately been pro-Obama, I’ve never really seen it as unethical or unfair. I agree that the Lady of the Manor seems to have taken her foot off the throttle a bit as the race has wound down a little though.
I’ve just whacked up the three basic measures of Intrade data I’m going to be following through to the election here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/intrade-data/
I’ll update them every Tuesday – and fear not, there be no rogue Mississippi’s in this one!
Nothing looks more pathetic than a sore loser. As older white women are clearley the largest voting bloc in the democratic party (and probably the country) sexism is clearly the reason a REAL minority candidate won. open sexism was clearly a part of Obma’s campaign. Huh?. Am i the only one who saw the interviews of the good people of west Virginia. I havnt herd anyone one say im not voting for the “OTHER” sex as ive heard of the other race. John stewarts changing of West Virginia’s state motto to “No interviews please” did make me laugh.
Hillary Quite while you are um well behind….
Scotty,
You idiot,
You’ve poste your CV.
Dyno- here’s the dilemma. I find myself thinking it’s time to withdraw from PB, as we all descend further into the mire, and with a tad too much wine I find myself dragging the bottom with the best of them . However there ar still moments where I learn interesting stuff, and at times am mightily amused, so i am loathe to cut the tie.
And I am pretty sure that the dynamic here reflects what we are observing within the Primaries – some try to rise above, some shoot the bullets and some just depart – and all are frustrated at how drawn out it is.
So I find myself staying to see what’s next, and then wondering why I bother again…
Pancho #303 and ESJ #304
The fairyland are Obamabots who want to vote rort and exclude FL & MI. I ave
detailed the base of a likely Supreme Court success in #642 which is where it should go rather than the 2 State Offices getting intimidated on 31/5/08 to compromise in favor of Obama’s illegitimate claims/unity. Challenge my case
Popular vote: including MI & FL & including all FL votes and for MI including a fair vote allocation to both Hillary , Obama & Edwards & the other 3 candidates makes Hillary judsst in front on the popular vote , but its close enough to a statisticall tie. This option is the only democratic option to use.
Caucus’s: exclude all caucus’s ? There were 4 , none democratically run , no vote tallys , none where there is ANY record whatsoever of total votes cast at each of hundreds of Halls/Schools spread accross 4 States or even if they did ‘vote’ legally (as opposed to allocting delegate numbers) or how many votes each candidate got at all at ANY of the hundreds of Scout Halls/Schools where ‘meetings’ took place. No country in the world , not even Mugabe would try to include guestimates provided by hundreds of different unknown people located in hundreds of Halls/Schools accross 4 States of totals of ‘votes’ that may not even been cast , let alone a guestimate of how many votes were cast for all the 6 candidates per Hall/School. Votes can only count if properly recorded tallied & scruntineered. But after yous guys undemocratic approach to MI & FL , anything is possible
Jewish vote: what Pancho didn’t say is Hillary has about a 5% better J.e.wish vote rate than Obama ! (another better electability demographic for Hillary that I’ve mentioned before. Also the Poll is National, useless. Take FL , Obama loses & Hillary wins off the Repugs By the way ESJ , she wins OH easily and just these 2 States guarantee Hillary being POTUS. Commonsense not a commodity
Weatherboardmen & Ayers: Hillary couldn’t attack a fellow Democrat like the Repugs will be able to so. Why haven’t you brought up this Ayers guys history here Pancho ???
Just because I’m a barbarian you think I don’t know Ayers was on the FBI top 10 most wanted for a decade , launched Obama’s career etc. Why did you sit silently & allow k/r to deceive blogers that Ayers was a ‘good’ terrorist & to quote k/r ‘he always gave everyone notice before he let off the bombs’
Books ? Why Pancho haven’t you brought up here some of Obama’s quotes in his books that you say you’ve read re his feelings for ‘whites’ My barbarian libary got a copy , on loan of course. You & others here must be a selective readers.
Policys ? now yous wantto talk policys , for 3 months you guys didn’t. Healthcare ,Hillary (close to Labor) Obama (a Howard policy). Guns oh the NRA aan Obama financial supporter by the way , 2 bills Obama voted no , one re ban of semi autos & the othr to tighten up rules on gun manufacturers (do yous really know your FL candidate) , Patriot Act (Obama a yes vote) , Drivers licences for illegal immigrants (Obama yes , by the way McCain yes & by the way Hillary No), Kyoto (Obama will not ratify & you despite FINNS efforts can not say why , the fact s Obama’s stated policy dos not say he will ratify Kyoto , simple words Kevin07 had no trouble= Obama does NOT intend to) , economic policy & yous are ‘left’ and you are backing a ’sort of’ “we”‘ liberal , peacock style, right wing economic policy which will please ESJ my friend but yous cann’t even stick to principles although ESJ I used ’sort of’ because I’m still waiting to find out whos the Mentor for this model & which countries practice this ‘model’ I’ve raised about 30 points here , let me tick off how many get a rsponse
I think Pancho you know alot this history of Obama’s Ayers , books etc but maybe not all & alot of your colleagues don’t. Yous guys attitude to FL & MI is astonishing , but what I find most unbelievable from ‘left; people is yous going through aqll the above policy areas & saying ok or no but Hillary is too bad , I’ve always said most Obamabots idealoligy ‘progressive based’ are soft sybolism/politically correct & extremist overboard libertarians, anti war & US who regard the above practical policys as not as important. My priorities are the reverse and so are the Public when they vote centre labor or right centre liberal if labour is too left
Jen @ 371,
Quite. The continual slagging by certain parties is a turn-off though, and may yet cure me of my PB addiction.
But it’s a great site, don’t get me wrong!
Thanks for the graphs, Possum. They are worth many volumes of mere opinion and make me feel quite chirpy, really.
GG at 254
Of course, a winner will emerge. But despite the incessant rhetoric to the contrary, who that is has not been decided.
It’s become very tiresome around here, so I wont bother posting to you or any other Hillary supporters again. Just one final question, do you SERIOUSLY believe that now, given Hillary will need over 80% over the remaining delegates that the race has not been decided? Just because she wont withdraw, it doesnt make the race undecided…
Andrew,
Do you find yourself tiresome and boring?
eek, I just got back from washing the dishes (yeah, I know, I’m that guy)
I re-read my post and realised something… B-brother(I saw it once, 4yrs ago) is a horrible pit of something I don’t know what but…
I didn’t mean you guys were akin to the contestants etc in personality
I meant that you were posting in a fishbowl… lots of ppl watching/reading and judging
Some running bets
Apo0logies if that wasn’t clear
Now… back to the Ron,/i> wars
Top work Possum. A step ahead again.
Speaking against racism, ron, you should have a look at this. Obama is doing his bit for hispanic rights in America. Nice one, imo. He has the mojo. The right soon won’t know which is up!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/23/obama-rush-limbaugh-lou-d_n_103315.html
332 Jen
I’ll be brief about zombies. Simplistically, it’s a combination of being poisoned with puffer fish, a brief burial, a shot of datura (angel’s trumpet) to wake you up but totally dissociate you and then a “pointing the bone” ceremony. Basically, you get low oxygen brain damage and a trip from hell in the setting of a profound belief in zombification. There are several other causes. The famous book discovering this is The Serpent and the Rainbow by Wade Davis. There’s more at:
Dead Man Walking
http://www.biology-online.org/articles/dead_man_walking.html
Classified-
fair call – i think we are like the contestants.
I want to be the one who leaves with dignity in tact (has there ever been one?) . or else, i want to be the winner and get a million bucks.
GG, of all the Hillary supporters, you have been the most willing to engage in sensible debate and the most rational. Stop spoiling your record. Stop the insults and just answer the question. Bye for now
Classified
FINNS I’ve got another Parrot a poster called ‘classified’ and I don’t even have to make a pet name , ‘classified’ is fine
Diogenes-
thanks.
sounds like what half the kids in this town are doing.( and perhaps one or two here). explains a lot actually.
I did actually once drink angel’s-trumpet tea in my youth. Wouldn’t recommend it..
Andrew,
Your first sentence answers the rest.
Cheers
Ronnie, your gain is my lost. i notice my parrot has just left the building
Who did the what now?
Jen, dignity nearly always comes with tact…:)
In truth, your dignity is in fine shape – no food fights, no eye-gouging or biting, nor goading, lying, harping, sniping or bullying. The red wine stains on your shirt will wash out and everything will get better again.
Blindoptimist
#380
All of your posts to me are barbs. What was in this one , you suggesting Limburgh is my political ally ? The problem with Obama attacking Limbugh is not the substance of Obama’s words , they’re fine but that Hillary or Edwards are just as likely yesterday or tomorrow to do the same thing against this Steve Price man , its all political but I’m all for the words spokn.
k/r you ask what did Obama do wrong at Philly , not criticise Mumble.
Ron: . But yous do not understand If you were a black man sufferinfg prejudice for a lifetime , you’d expect Obama to take a historic step. Instead he sold out his race to save his political hide
blindoptimist- thank you.
do I get the million bucks?
…I think I’ve had enough turkey slaps!
Ron,
Just hosekeepign. But no evidence that anything good happens out of Richmond/Essendon. Polls prove Dreamtime is Obamaphiles.
The Finnigans Says: #387
“Ronnie, your gain is my lost. i notice my parrot has just left the building”
FINNS , you can have oe of mine , your choice :
CellsWitheld , BoysLesswit , GibberSh.t , CodgY , classified , or our shared Parrot (name with many words as he uses so many himself)
“don’t forget me , I’m Mr Attention seeker”
“Ron: . But yous do not understand If you were a black man sufferinfg prejudice for a lifetime , you’d expect Obama to take a historic step. Instead he sold out his race to save his political hide”
And that’s why 90% of black Americans are throwing him their votes! LOL
Ron, is it possible, just for once, to actually look at the complete twaddle you write and have a good laugh at yourself.
Join us!
Ronnie, how can i not take MR-FORGET-ME-NOT
http://www.hendrikwill.com/blog/images/20060528201950_forget-me-not.jpg
Classified
#339
Classified #339 “Ron will post amazing shitloads of stuff(which no-body) ever reads but he hangs onto the fact that he typed it so, surly SOMEBODY did even if they dont admit it…”
So don’t try to play innocent here. you threw the first stone , but your problem is far more professional Obamabots then you have delivered far smarter shots than you are capable of and i’m still here defiant , and how would you feel if Obama made a massive ‘gaffe’ right now & Hillary becomes Nominee well I would be genuinely consoling you
You are better off with me as a Parrot , FINNS is a harder trainer, him being a senior Amigo
The Finnigans #96
“Ronnie, how can i not take MR-FORGET-ME-NOT’
Transfer now done FINNS , he doesn’t know how fortunate he is to have your wisdom used
#367, Hi Amigo, Lady Huff again
WTF is going on here. Like i said, Obama needs Hillary more than Hillary needs Obama, as per Lady Huff.
Would you Obamabots now denounce Lady Huff. She’s a traitor.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/unmasking-mccain-his-reac_b_103580.html
Ron,
Magnificent poetry.
“So don’t try to play innocent here. you threw the first stone , but your problem is far more professional Obamabots then you have delivered far smarter shots than you are capable of and i’m still here defiant
You are the man.
Rasmussen 2 new polls – Hilary +2 on McCain, Obama even with McCain. More signs of insanity in the Democratic party – they are about to launch their own November Turkey.
Yes well said Ron. Stick it to the snobs.
Pancho #379
Top work Possum. A step ahead again.
You didn’t mention the new barbarian “market prediction” alternative to Possums
You guys do like diverse views of course. Obviously ESJ and the 2 Amigos will enjoy my #372 to store for return fire as Obama suporters have a problem when faced with actual policys to defend. Jen , your man will not ratify Kyoto , bad
Just a reminder to the johnny-come-lately Obamabots.
the three amigos – moi, GG, Ron: We ride, We fight (the Obamabots) and We love
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=xZ3KVYt8__A
Yes Bravo to the 3 Amigos for fighting the good fight and for your good humour.
Not at all Finns. She knows she’s a player, both influencial and widely read. Her column actually acknowledges that there needs to be some reconcilliation, and she is obviously playing her part. She knows it is over and is trying not to inflame petty infighting, but rather focus Democratic attention on the real contest. This line
is her calling it over and noting that she (and people like her) need to reach out, in my opinion. So no, I wouldn’t denounce her.
And how will the BHO people reach out Pancho? By offering the veepship?
k/r
“And that’s why 90% of black Americans are throwing him their votes”
you don’t get it k/r , of course they are , the blacks are a downtrodden discriminated against for hundreds of years minority group who like if there was a hispanic candidate stick with their own (unless the alternative is amazing policys) it happens all over the world but that doesn’t mean there is disappointment with his Philly failure which will grow in future years
Sorry WB, I am quoting the full article from Crikey here, as subs is required. The killer quote: “Why? Because if she were the candidate, most likely none of this outflanking nonsense would be needed”. Like i said too many times now, Obama is destroying the Dems Mandate from Heaven to govern.
US08: Obama may struggle against McCain
Tuesday, 27 May 2008
US correspondent Guy Rundle writes:
It’s Memorial Day here, a holiday that began as a commemoration of the Civil War Union dead — and thus of the subjugation of one part of the country by another — and became a memory of American dead in foreign wars.
In Texas, there’s military parades. In Nebraska, relatives visit and clean the graves of the fallen. And in Portland, folks have a late mushroom n asiago omelette brunch in the Pearl District, browse Powell’s for new anime and then take in a movie at the Living Room, preferably black and white, preferably Brazilian. Semper fi, o cap’n my cap’n.
Six more weeks here and I will no longer be able to understand myself.
God knows what the country will look like next year when once again one part of the country has subjugated the other, but even with a Democratic grand slam the place will still be embroiled in foreign wars. The question is whether the US will be led by someone who’s trying to back out of them, who defines them as exactly the wrong relationship the country should have to the world — or by a man who, despite subsequent backpedalling, is easy with the idea of being in ever more exotic locales for a hundred years.
Currently, the polls would suggest the latter scenario, with McSame leading Obama by around four points across the board — more than enough to grab a few more states than Bush took from Kerry or Gore. But we’re a long way out and a lot can and will happen. However one thing is certain — if Obama is to win this, the election will have to be rendered qualitatively different by his candidacy and campaign than any before.
If Indecision ‘08 merely runs in the grooves of red state-blue state culture wars that have gone before, then Obama may as well give up now. Of all the possible scenarios for an Obama victory, the least likely is the one that Democrats have been working on for the past three years, when Hillary was seen as a shoo-in. Consider from worst to best for Obama:
SCENARIO ONE: The current state of play is that the Democrats hold New England, the north bit of the industrial Northeast, and the Pacific coast. The GOP holds the South, the Southwest, the Midwest, the Great Plains, and the northeast remnant — Indiana and Ohio. Bush got 286 electoral college votes, Kerry 251. The assumption has always been that the Democrats must win either Ohio (20 votes) or Florida (27) in order to regain the White House. Given the current polling of Obama among certain sectors, that is looking unlikely. Indeed one possible result is that Obama not only fails to gain either state, but loses back to McCain New Hampshire (4), the most ornery of the New England states, and maybe even Michigan (10), for a true debacle, and an entrenchment of “McCain Democrats”.
SCENARIO TWO: Would have Obama losing these states, but gaining GOP states that the silvertailed Kerry couldn’t get — New Mexico (5), Iowa (7) maybe even Colorado (9), to do slightly better than Kerry, without actually winning.
SCENARIO THREE: Has Obama holding all the states Kerry took, taking neither Florida nor Ohio, but taking some of New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada (5), and maybe even South Carolina (8) in such a way as to give him the 18 votes he needs for a narrow victory.
SCENARIO FOUR: Assumes that much of the “won’t vote Obama” thing is pique, that can be magicked away both by Obama going head to head with McCain and by a remorseless worsening of everything the latter is in favour of. In this scenario, Obama gains one or both of Florida, and a couple from the New Mexico etc list, to take the Democrat vote above 300, and lay the basis for a reconstruction of the electoral map.
SCENARIO FIVE: Is the grand slam. Obama takes everything below the GOP waterline, leaving the Republicans with redoubt states like Texas and Idaho. With the Democrats also gaining a 50-60 seat majority in Congress, the conditions are set for a decade or more of Democrat power, and the chance to appoint several Supreme Court justices, effectively setting the terms of American political culture for the next three or four decades.
So you can see why things are a little fraught on the Democrat side, but also why Obama supporters are more confident than the terrifying stories of white working class desertion would have one believe.
Two factors are key here — one is the winner take all nature of a state-based selection process. Take the state by one or one million votes, it don’t matter (except for Nebraska and Maine, sh-ttily enough), the electoral college votes are yours. New Mexico went to Bush by six thousand votes last time, and a few other states are so close to the waterline that it is generally assumed that sheer Bushatred will carry them for the Dems.
Second is the small state weighting — electoral college votes are arrived at by adding congressional districts to Senate seats. Since every state has two senators, that means small states punch above their weight. Ohio has 18 districts and New Mexico has three. The latter is one-sixth the size but gets one quarter of the electoral college votes (20 against 5). To get 20 electoral college votes from three close smaller states — New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, say — means convincing less people than one close big state.
Usually, that’s a goose-gander sauce thang. This year it may be different, because so many of these states may be composed of the sort of people — Hispanic Americans, mixed culture, outlaws in general — most likely to have some sort of general identification with Obama. Effectively, his status as the first post-modern candidate may be enough to outflank the rustbelt-sunbelt states that it’s hitherto been assumed the Democrats have to win.
Risky strategy? You bet. But the Democrats ain’t got much else. Which means that… Hillary’s still in the race. Why? Because if she were the candidate, most likely none of this outflanking nonsense would be needed — after all she’s not the one getting endorsed by frikkin Castro (de facto). The Dems would take not only Ohio, but quite possibly regain a chunk of the South — Kentucky, Mississippi etc — plus the Southwest, to put together an electoral college vote not seen since, well, since the last time a Clinton ran.
Who’s to say that won’t become so obvious, so compelling in the lead-up to the convention that there won’t be a sudden superdelegate crossback? Who’s to say it’s not possible that they won’t feel it not merely their prerogative but their duty to history.
For the party, for the country, for the Union dead?
and We love
best part FINNS
ESJ,
I wouldn’t think directly to her – I have said before that I think this will give Republicans strategists a field day, being able to regurgitate her Primary attack lines (C-i-C threshold etc) – but possibly to a Hillary loyalist. And other than that, by playing it as Obama has, ie. focussing on McCain, praising Hillary where possible, and not getting into slanging matches. And I reckon they’ll go more than halfway with regards to FL and MI.
“The only way John McCain can win is if his reactionary views on choice and women’s health issues remain obscured by his faux maverick reputation and the blinding disappointment of Clinton die-hards. There is too much at stake to let that happen.”
liked that Huff Post. Unfortunately this pro Obama female Owner who has put so much bile on the female Hillary NOW wants to protecther female legacy by being able to quote some VERY BELATED pro hillary posts. Madam , i hope the females see through your self interest in your future reputation , now tarnished
Ron,
Agree, TheHuff Post among others have been attack dogs on Hilary.
Hope they are pleased with the outcome.
Jen….the mill?… well they say virtue is its own reward….but i’ve never subscribed to that entirely…..yeah….a mill….you’ve earned it….i pass round the hat….it’s a big hat, good quality south australian felt, very classy…..should be no prob…..:)
The end of Francis Fukuyama on Lateline now, as Tony Jones got stuck into him. A neocon who is not a neocon now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama
Edward StJohn #402
“Yes well said Ron. Stick it to the snobs.”
Mate I’m happy to debate with you we share some different philosophies & some the same & we can argue & throw some playful jests , but this lot are FL elitist smugy symbolism driven ‘progressively based’ politically correct soapy anti Amerian rose pots who reagard regarding equity & opportunity & social assistance as not as important but who want to pay for their ideas with a non capitalist system that does not exxist and they still do not realise the economic model of Obama’s is soft right wing but with leafy tyres that economically won’t achieve their ideals
Pancho “So no, I wouldn’t denounce her.”
whats been the last 3 months of your venom against her …not denouncing her ?
Ron and ESJ: Are you two sincere Hillary supporters?
Track back Ron. That is in reference to Finns’ question about denouncing Arianna Huffington.
FINNS
#409
glad you posted the lot
and your comment “Who’s to say that won’t become so obvious, so compelling in the lead-up to the convention that there won’t be a sudden superdelegate crossback?”
Absolutely amigo !!! , we can win this if the SD’s have any political nous and will have the courage to stand up to the Team Obama (per mayor koch & Dr Adam)
of intimidation that if Obama doen;’t get the nomination EVEN IF he loses the the blacks will desert the Party forever , obama Chicago , where did Al Capone come from
Track back Ron. Pancho fair enough the Huff lady , there are so many ladys involved but my earlier post is relevant
” Unfortunately this pro Obama female Owner who has put so much bile on the female Hillary NOW wants to protecther female legacy by being able to quote some VERY BELATED pro hillary posts”. Huff lady bow in self interst mode , you surely cnn’t equate her previous remarks with the above quote or earlier in the week of ’something like hillary has been a fighter & trail blazer , you believe its not self interest ?
As someone who has been unimpressed with the way that Hillary has run her campaign, I can unequivocably say that she has quite obviously been a fighter and a trailblazer. These qualities are beyond question, and the Hillary campaign will likely be seen in this light after a bit of a cooling off period.
Whatever you think about her personal motives (we’ll need to agree to disagree here) for Huffington to be making positive remarks about Hillary is in the interest of the Democratic Party. That is where I see her motive.
Possum Comitatus at 368
It goes without saying – Possum rocks!
GG
I’ve already got one black star with you from last week mate & and you mention the dreamtime , i was actually there with black kids in the middl of the ground with the Michael Long’s etc and I was expecting an Obamabot to say (again) you racist ron you weren’t there and i was going to bert a grand at them 9for William) as i can prove it , the worst thing was not the lost chance to get a grand from the obamabots but that William in gratitude may have nade me his honorary ‘alternative moderator ‘ . a role the barbarian would look forward to with glee and as with footy teams & your proudly paid up ‘blues’ one black star is enough without my mighty footy team so passionate that all games are taped except the lossing ones , erased ,so cann’t add to list although ‘blues’ fans do love us sort of
“for Huffington to be making positive remarks about Hillary is in the interest of the Democratic Party. That is where I see her motive.’
not having a go at you but thought you’d say that but couldn’t see that as a motive unless 1/ the huff lady & you think the Huff paper cn influence Hillary dems voters to feel included 2/ that assume Hillary supportrs aren’t like me , she lost me as her bias & venom was over the top (you apparently don’t think this barbarian seeks out & reads some pro Obama stuff , some is obviously pro Obama-centric but neither over the top bias wise or personally….writers & papers I believe vary not only in their balance but also bias
The closer you get to your destination, it starts to slip sliding away
that brilliant post of Crikey you posted of adverse Obama election ecenario’s FINNS ?
or the fact the barbarian is setting up a competitve ‘market prediction’ where we can decide the imput
Aren’t your critics being nice to you the kiss of death? Frankly it appears to be sign that Clinton’s campaign is officially terminal.
ron, you’re evolving a new prose style i’m sure it will catch on with anyone who is only concerned with striking keys and getting the clutter out of their minds onto the screenware and instead of picking their teeth and rubbing their eyes (in disbelief) prefer to rearrange the language as a kind of therapy to treat the sound of history stealing past whistling like tinitis in the ears of a bellringer with an itchy arse and wondering whether we really have entered a library with no books which would be like a blog with no hotlinks and indeed nothing at all like dreaming of playing badminton at wimbledon in the rain and wondering if it is still possible to buy a ham cheese and absurdity sandwich on the way in before you sit down and invent something to put in the box called Name (required) when you could be doing socially useful things like collecting litter and naming it after prime ministers and their pets.
The Finnigans @ 415
Said he voted for obama lol.
B O
#429
you appear to be praisng my lingo prose , in centurys to come as kids read the new lingo they ‘ll mention B O was one of th forst converts , although your name will be but for mini secnd. Perhips you could look at #372 “policys” and se if you can splice mustard here intellectually , the chalenge is their for for all elitist gentrymen to dishonor themselves
429
blindoptimist
You done it!
You’ve mastered Ronsperanto, except you’re making sense.
Please go back and take out the poetic allusions, the winsome levity, and the exuberant wit, and turn it into unreadable sludge.
There’s a boy.
Goodness, Ron and the Ronnettes are speedy tonight?
What is this, the last spasms of Hillary? You guys have to get it all out before the candle’s snuffed and your desperate dream of Hillary nodding and pointing at the convention just crawls off and quietly expires?
There, there, it’s OK to grieve, just get it all out now, and you’ll feel better when it’s finally over.
We’re very close now, let yourselves go.
While getting the latest update on world affairs and the state of super delegates, I came across the following and could not help but reflect on the reality at PB.
From the DCW Open Thread
431, much as I like to tinker with words I can’t see the point in rummaging through the counterfeits in a vain hope of finding genuine guineas when afterall i’m but a petty word thief and do not qualify as an elite anything least of all as a gentrified typist and forsooth have no honour in your company either; as for down the centuries to come and the kids thereof i am sure this turgidity has no merit and is just a-drivelled squawk among the fine chirps of the altos and the tenors who sing in this polyglade.
KR, you are a timely editor and a chapter on your own! i will try to make less sense on future.
Just came across a lovely paragraph in an article questioning the US primary and general election processes.
Source: By BYLINE, The New Yorker.
It’s hard to ignore numbers like this:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year, Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index fell 2.2% from February to March. This is the 16th consecutive decline in prices.
…and no end in sight.
November’s going to be very interesting, isn’t it?
I must be a sucker for punishment. I’ve been off marking the the scores of undergraduate esays that have been piling up like steaming turds dropped from dyslexic elephants. MY head is reeling, my soul is bruised, and yet I’m about to attempt to interpret Ron.
He said:
“but this lot are FL elitist smugy symbolism driven ‘progressively based’ politically correct soapy anti Amerian rose pots who reagard regarding equity & opportunity & social assistance as not as important but who want to pay for their ideas with a non capitalist system that does not exxist and they still do not realise the economic model of Obama’s is soft right wing but with leafy tyres that economically won’t achieve their ideals”
Ron, I regard “equity and opportunity & social assistance” as important. I suspect you’re alluding to the idea that Clinton is in some populist way more left-wing on social issues than Obama. I don’t think she is – unless you call pointless fuel holidays progressive or garnisheeing the wages of workers to pay for healthcare rather than taxing the rich a good idea. But, in any case, she’s a Clinton, runs on her “experience” in her husband’s administration, and her husband’s administration’s only significant “reform” in this area was an attack on welfare that makes Howard’s “mutual obligation” look woosy in the extreme.
If you want my honest opinion, I think that if the Democrats win this election there may be a “slight” improvement in the position of poor and working Americans but that, regardless of the candidate, any real change depends on a resurgence of organising at the base. In this case I prefer the community organiser to the woman who’s running as the wife of the biggest sleaziest do-nothing sellout merchant since Truman brought us Taft/Hartley.
Now it’s time to try and interpret your appellation “anti-American”. I love lots of Americans and a lot about their culture. I love Hollywood and popular music (with the obvious exceptions in both cases). But I hate empires. I don’t dislike the “American” in the American Empire just the “Empire” in it. You work it out Ron. And I prefer Obama to Clinton because he doesn’t threaten to “obliterate” countries on the off chance they are proven to have wanted to develop the capacity to threaten to do to one country what the US has had the capacity to do to the whole world for several decades.
You seem to think that this is an elitist, late sipping position. But I think not – at least not in Australia. More importantly, if you want to defend Vietnam and Iraq (the interventions not the countries) then do so, don’t assert that just because some of us prefer Obama because he opposed the war in Iraq that we are guilty of an addiction to elicit liberal food groups. There lies the slippery slope at the bottom of which Rupert squats with a checque book and a job with Fox. The Ron Report in the Syntax Free Zone. It has a ring.
437
Catrina Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:13 am
Just came across a lovely paragraph in an article questioning the US primary and general election processes…
…….
Very apt, Catrina. It seems all the Hillarity has made a joke of the arithmetic.
BO #440 1 + 1 + ME
Sorry, 1 + 1 = ME
437
Catrina
For many,reminding us of Bill’s ‘flexibility’ with the truth, is another reason not to want to see Hillary in the Whitehouse.
God, after 8 years of the Idiot Decider and his grubby little regime of propagandists and spin meisters, lying their way to war and assaulting the basic legal decencies of the Geneva Convention, Hillary’s the perfect reminder of what they already have.
Enough already!
438
Kirribilli Removals Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:18 am….it’s hard to ignore numbers like this:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year…
And when the weakness of the USD is factored in, the decline in values in the US is really numbing. Your dire predictions could yet come to pass, KR. The outlook is very confused….inflation is back, but growth in the Atlantic economies is feeble, the US fiscal position is deplorable and the banking system is still frail….nothing but trouble….
11 Superdelegates to Obama, 0 to Clinton over the Memorial weekend.
49 left to go.
It will probably be official on Saturday after Puerto Rico. If not, after SD and Montana on Tuesday. MI and FL will be resolved on Saturday as well.
So we have 7 more days, tops, until The Amigos REALLY start embarrassing themselves by resorting to cheerleading McCain in order to sate their fear of Barry Hussein Obama.
439
Robert Bollard
Can I just add a resounding “here, here!”
Possum Comitatus:
After going though your new material I have a request (a.k.a. user requirement). While the graphs give us an indication of the general trend and probably Democrat victory, what is missing is the degree of sensitivity of the the position. For example, if we were to assume a +-3% variation in the numbers, and if the Democrats are only just getting some of the states by the skin of their teeth, the number of electoral votes can jump about in a non-linear fashion. This brought me to the idea that the display of a band with an upper +3 and a lower -3 would provide a more in-depth picture in which we could get a sense of the potential volatility.
442
Robert Bollard Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Sorry, 1 + 1 = ME
…
does this mean there are two of you, RB?
444
blindoptimist
Yep, it’s turning to sh!t in a bucket, as the North American peso goes down the toilet and the rest of world refuses to let them simply inflate their way out of debt.
As one economist likes saying: when something is unsustainable it eventually stops.
So you can’t keep expanding deficits forever and hoping that other countries will just keep lending you their savings.
I keep trying to imagine the mood come November, but it just looks so grey and miserable the only consolation is that Republicans will take a huge amount of the voter’s anger.
Possum, check out the Queensland redistributed thread for the latest gaffe by the local Pineapple party. Unbelievable.
“…. Republicans will take a huge amount of the voter’s anger.”
I’m reminded of some reports indicating that only some 30% or less of republican-identifying voters are happy with their choice of candidates. This is in a climate in which only 30-odd% of Americans are identifying as Republican.
KR, the thing that is really mind-boggling about the US economic situation is that it is all self-induced, predictable and preventable. In the same way as the mismanagement of economic and foreign policies in the 1960’s and early 70’s lead to the traumas of the late 70’s and 80’s, the combination of Republican congresses, the Bush White House and the Greenspan Fed have just about ruined America. They’ve certainly brought ruin to millions of low income families, to US government finances and the capital markets, not to mention the entire Iraqi people. Electoral justice awaits.
Tues May 27:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=ArCtOQCJhOBh2xA_PdCEJ31X_b4F
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080526_oh_say_can_you_siacute/
KR and BO at 444: “ Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year…”
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080526_the_price_of_house/
Don’t think the SDs liked Senator Clinton’s reference to Bobby’s whacking too much.
“To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 — or 2210, as the case may be.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_campaign_banks_superdele.php
EC at 454
I’m hearing similar chatter across a number of channels.
But Saturday’s meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee is so far away – it’s like a new form of torture. With a decision there, things become just a little more concrete and many thousands of spreadsheets across the planet will be updated. Days later the remaining primaries play their last hand, the writing on the wall will be written, and the everyone knows that the this party is done and the bigger party is kicking into action.
It’s the only sane course of action, Catrina. Time The Kid went mano a mano with the old war-monger. Let’s see the History happen.
It is great politcal drama in its own right, really, this primary season. The competing characters, the twists in the narrative, the moments of triumph and frustration, the whole personification of the quest for power, the creation of hope and, inevitably, the weight of loss too. It is great stuff.
The Forked Tongued Fund-Raising Express:
“Look, George (Mr. President, Sir), I know we hate each others guts and you’re radioactive to my election chances, but…it’s like this…. I need the money to run my campaign, and afterall, we are Republicans!”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a62zxp30OASc