The Democratic primaries campaign limps on: Puerto Rico on Sunday, Montana and South Dakota next Wednesday (our time).
Those wishing to pursue a conversational style of discussion (this ranges from those who abuse each other to those who say “good night” to each other) are encouraged to try their hand at IRC:
2,238 Comments
Bill Clinton is getting a little bother by it all.
Read on …
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-ha.html
Jen,
I think its a fair question, If Kirri abuses everyone he disagrees with its only fair to ask if he has the same problem with his kids.
2132
Catrina
Searing outrage in that post, and fair enough, as Clinton has dragged it into a cesspit of her own making.
There really is a lot of creepiness about her, and I think America has dodged a bullet.
I only hope Obama does too.
Eddy, you disgust me in every possible way, and I suspect quite a few others around here, but I’ll let them speak for themselves.
I’ve dished it back you because you are, at heart, a pissy little passive aggresive who slides in here and then attacks people with innuendo and snide ugly little comments.
A long time ago I called you a ’serial abuser’. And you hated being caught out for what you are. You’ve proven it to everyone, what else needs to be said?
Sad, ugly, deformed little creature.
You and Hillary are a nice match too, come to think of it.
Bye, don’t bother replying. You are beyond the pail, utterly beyond it.
Is this place full of old people?
If you want to chat there is a tool for that – its called IRC.
Just post a forum address.
Hopefully June 3 marks the end of Hillary’s campaign for the 2008 Democratic nomination! She’s blown it, the RFK stuff is the icing on her cake of woe!
Progresssive,
Icing on the final nail cake? Marketing choices are a wonderful thing.
Kirri it was just a question old son! Why the overreaction?
You seem to delight in dishing it out but get oh so angry at a question! You need to toughen up if you want to play bully boy of the sandpit old son!
GG: with all due respect, it’s been over for Hillary since February! I’ve got admiration for the lady, she’s a fighter, but the reality is she won’t be the nominee. Would I object if she was Obama’s running mate? No.
You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.
Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”
——
I’ve looked at going commercial – done the sums, proper market research for advertising forms including a quote on a media buy for a bag of companies that my readership demographic matched for ad placement (not google and adsense – it’s rubbish for the pseph reader demographic) and it’s not worth my opportunity cost as an individual blogger considering the hours I’d have to work, 2 employees I’d need if I was to do it properly and the loss of nearly all of my leisure time (and let it be said, I’m a possum that enjoys lazing around on the odd branch probably a bit more than I should, so that’s really important to me).
I dont accept donations either because I have no hosting costs being on a free traffic blog – and taking donations doesnt gell with me because of that.
For me to go heavy into the US market would require me ramping up as I did during the election campaign – and that’s extremely time consuming – not really the writing part, but all the hunting down info, talking to the right people, keeping a keen eye on the comments to avoid litigation..all the usual life eaters… plus finding time to think.
I’ll just continue on with the current format – updates a couple of times a week, heavy moderation of comments and the generally lazy approach and try to stay low key to a very specific audience like I did during the 07 election (although that didnt work out so well).
That’s not to say that I’ll be keeping the blog forever in it’s current format, or even using Pollytics as my primary distrubition mechanism (things are afoot on a large spectrum of possibilities in that regard, the Pollytics site will probably be just an archive of my stuff by this time next year at the latest) – but going into the US market full on as an individual blogger (and doing it properly) would be… well, I’d rather chew off my own arm!
Oh – Holy Sheet Batman, a Meebo Shoutbox!
Ooops – bad cut and paste.
The first lines of the post should have read:
KR on the old musty thread said:
“Possum, if you are going to bother compiling all the numbers, maybe you could set up a good site with some google ads for revenue.
Once the US market discovers you actually know what you are doing, you’d get plenty of traffic.
You wouldn’t be beholden to the kindness of strangers for donations.
Only if you’re not averse to ‘going commercial’ that is.”
Progressive,
With deepest and sincerest best wishes, you must understand my totally consistent position that the contest continues unabated. Otherwise, Hillary would have conceded. So, whenever, I see these facile cliches repeated it makes me laugh.
Also, if as you believe, the contest is over, why the need for such lazy turns of phrase.
Diogenes
A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.
I notice there is a documentary Shake Hands With the Devil based on the autobiography (of the same name) of Lt Gen Romeo Dallaire on ABC1 tonight. I havent seen the documentary but the book is an interesting account of the events at the time and is particularly scathing of the UN in general and Kofi Annan and Jacques-Roger Booh Booh in particular.
Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a Clinton was involved or more importantly, should have been ).
Billbowe – if your reading, have you got an address for your Meebo room on the Meebo site?
It would be something like:
http://www.meebo.com/room/pollbludger/
??
Browsers run by security oriented folk dont always work well with a Meebo embed.
WorkToRule
Which language?
10
Possum Comitatus
yes, that’s why I put in the caveat about ‘commercial’. To do it properly would be a full time commitment plus some code hackers to do the drudgery, so I perfectly understand the reservations. (Even my part time html coding can drive me nuts, and that’s without having to do the research). And yes, you would need proper targeted advertising and all that entails.
Maybe curled up in a nice hollow log is a better life!
But hey, I think we get a great deal with your pearly drops of data crunching wisdom, so yeah, don’t go there! LOL
Wow, it’s still going! ‘Much Ado About Clinton’s Flailing’, the play of 2007/8. Extended run (not by popular demand, it’s just that one player won’t leave the stage).
Gary Younge pulls an aposite Orwell quote into his piece today:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/26/hillaryclinton.barackobama
It is a quote probably better applied to Clintonistas rather than the Senator herself. Judging by her media performances of late she knows she has lost now, and is just gunning for the popular vote measure (according to that weird abbacus she has set up in the dark by the RNC tally room) in the offchance that Obama loses the General. In her mind, the presentation of these alchemical numbers to the base of the party in 2012 will have them forgiving her and overlooking Mark Warner for the nomination. Unfortunately for Team Aggreived, Hills will be back at no. 35 in the Senate, Bill will be making money sleazing it round the world, and a Democrat will have just celebrated 4 years in the Whitehouse by this time.
Oh, one other thing Possum: you are hanging around with humans way too much.
You don’t have any arms! LOL
Possum
just back after a few hours and note your comments#2123
“Ron at 2112 – economic models of election behaviour have a poor to average hit rate, although the Fair model seems to work a little better. But they only predict a YES/NO”
That is pat of my point. “economic election prediction “ models are used. Betting markets is just another info tool.
First point You’re said the betting market had a perfect 100% e/v record , are you saying 6 months out from the POTUS elections (you quoted 1968 in one post) Intrade has a perfect record of picking the 12 most marginal states ?
Second pont What you are not accepting is the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today , the pollster is predicting what will happen in 6 months in addvance by state. Secondly the betting market is rating % of winning by e/v state whereas the polls measure an predicted margin. The two are not the same.Thirdly polls can be theoretically modelled into a % chance of winning by e/v but the &% still relects a voters intent 6 months out noyt todays punters money laid
Third point I would have more confidence in a modelled % chance of winning by E/V state with serious psephological info than a betting modelled one with “mug punters” , punters cashing in their prfits , punters panicing , punters laying off etc
Forth point success stats you ar probably sitting on to try & slay me would be overall sucess rates , but its only a 2 horse race so most of the E/V ‘s everyone knows now so the % success rates can be inflated & marginals are 50/50 chance anyway How about giving me todays uncut odds on wi mi mn oh ia mo va co nc sc nm fl & nv. I’ll compare them against my analysis basis in 3/ come Nov
5/ You like these computer models , graphs & charts that’s why you are a marsupial
For barbarians thet represent cybers , & stat weighting. I have no issue with your betting , graphs , charts etc expertise used for you making predictions at all but I do take issue with the suggestioion the betting markets are the only source of accurately predicting e/v’s (with polls at best a minor input) They are a factor in consideration but don’t think the factor
6/ Human psephological value judgement I believe has just as sound a base for predicting e/v’s They may involve as I said earlier (use of polls & successive polls & their analysis , trends , demographics in their entirety , historical precedents & other psephological factors , turnout rates & mobilisation options , policys , incubantcy , the forcast economic election month economic conditions then prevailing , election themes to make a decision by e/v.. some of this may be converts to assist a computer model but assist only , but not with the psephologic-centric viewpoint. For mine I’ll stick to point 6/ here
Some rumors I’m hearing …
Has anyone hear anything equivalent?
KR – I live for logs!
Ta for compliment
ESJ-
it was not a fair question- it was a over the line, buddy.
22
Jen
Leave him, not worth the keystrokes.
My four year old very proudly informed me of his powers tonight: spiderwebs shoot from his fingers (he has NEVER seen Spiderman! How do they do that?), and he shoots grassy slime, and he can turn into a snake. (The last one I know is due to Harry Potter, they both love it). We all did a lovely ride along the river this afternoon now that the little guy can handle the trainer wheels. Some things are as near to perfection as they can be.
Pity about the others, eh?
Oh Kirri,
Trying to play the wronged fella are we? LOL
One only need look at your sad line of vitriol directed at multiple posters on this site to demonstrate that you have a problem.
Maybe I should call DOCS ?
And as for you Jen,
I am happy to accept that you are a garden variety Green, but honestly if you want to defend the indefensible (Kirri) then you shouldnt be surprised if your reputation suffers by association.
ESJ.
You are pathetic. Last keystrokes wasted.
Catrina – I bet the charter companys ar sh*tting themselves. I thought they’d
be using rickshaws by now.
Ron at 19, just a few quick points to answer:
Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record.
The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.
Odds today in Intrade and Iowa are set by bid and ask price, not money volumes as happens with bookies. Intrade and Iowa are contract markets, not betting markets like betfair, portlandbet, centrebet etc. Contract markets work very very differently.
Pollsters arent predicting what will happen at any time in the future at all – polls tell us “if an election were held today – who would you vote for”, they dont ask “When the election is held in 6 months from now, who will you vote for” – there is a big difference.
Modeling polling margins as a “win probability” is an exercise for statisticians that are removed from political reality… a 57% TPP doesnt mean there’s a one in 10000 chance of the other side winning (which is what the stats say) because it’s a misrepresentation of what polls are, and what they are actually measuring.
“Mug punter” bets are effectively anchored by “smart money”. If “mug punters” bid the price too far away from insiders perceptions of reality, those with better knowledge will and do buy or sell to make a killing.
If you want the odds on those States, go to http://www.intrade.com/, click on politics on the left, then click on “US Election by State”. The price under “last” is the approximate odds of that event happening.
Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.
Yes Jen, perhaps if you looked with a little more clarity a little “less scales on the eyes” you might see your good buddy (Kirri) a little more clearly.
I admit to going in hard on poor old Kirri but after all no one has dished it out more harshly and consistently than Kirri – I’m just providing a little levelling to our precious petal. Actually the self-righteous comments from Kirri amuse me greatly given the vituperativeness directed at a poster with some perceptive comments like Ron he can hardly complain if he gets a little return of serve provided free of charge by moi.
You might have more credibility too if you were prepared to apply a little more critical analysis!
Eddy once stormed off this site in high dudgeon because someone inferred it would have been better if he’d been aborted.
My goodness, you should have heard him squeal like a stuck pig, demanding that WB do this,and do that, because it was an outrage.
Just look at him now.
Yes how sad Kirri we have been reduced to your standards.
Harold
#13
“Diogenes ,A few days ago you metioned you were about to read Gourevitch (Stories from Rwanda) and I remember some time ago you were in discussion here regarding the culpability of the UN as a result of their inaction during the Rwandan genocide.”
It was me Harold. i wanted to know what specifically were Obama ’s policys to redress the horror of Ruwanda , Darfur & Burma….got no answer
k/r
#3
as you haven’t answered #1857 as amended , additional question , name the countrys that presently use Obama’s economic model
Harold
#13
“Apologies for this being off topic ( although I am sure a CLINTON was involved or more importantly, should have been ).”
Yes you see Jen #30 from Kirri is actually the truth, except that Kirri thought that was highly amusing and correct.
I dont recall you expressing moral outrage then or now.
So please dont lecture me or take a high handed tone with me.
#
31
Edward StJohn Says:
May 26th, 2008 at 9:13 pm
Yes how sad Kirri we have been reduced to your standards.
hang on buster, show me where I’ve accused anyone of mistreating their kids, or is that just the way you always talk?
It’s not ‘we’ who are reduced Eddy, it is you.
Ugly little creature trying to blame me for your odiousness.
I think Krugman doesn’t get it either:
What about offering Mrs. Clinton the vice presidency? If I were Mr. Obama, I’d do it. Adding Mrs. Clinton to the ticket — or at least making the offer — might help heal the wounds of an ugly primary fight.
Here’s the point: the nightmare Mr. Obama and his supporters should fear is that in an election year in which everything favors the Democrats, he will nonetheless manage to lose. He needs to do everything he can to make sure that doesn’t happen.
NYT
…well at least he’s writing for a paper that endorsed her, so it’s fair to be her cheer squad I suppose.
Kirri, I think Jen’s conspicuous silence demonstrates even those who were prepared to entertain your drivel are having second thoughts.
Evening all….I’ve been plucking on my old Maton Coolibah (such a beautiful guitar) and singing Cohen’s ‘Hallelujah’ to the four walls, while simultaneously keeping an eye on the goings on in Bludgerdom. The music was relaxing – but the blogging – well – same ol’ same ol’. Nothing much new to report since Hillary self destructed after NC and Indiana really. Now we’re all just sitting around and getting cranky as we wait for the SDs to disconnect Hillary’s life support.
Go on! Do it now SD’s!! Then I can put some heart in ‘Hallelujah’!
Hillary’s invoking the month of June and 1968 is questionable, just on the ‘timeline’ argument, and if you can wade through the details, this tells why she’s really having a lend of everyone:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/05/the-fallacy-of.html
…and what’s more, she must know it.
Hey FG, there’s some rabbiting on about that song linked through here: http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/
38
Ferny Grover
And then it will be time for the Sisters of Mercy (they are not forsaken or gone).
Eddy, the only thing amusing was you p!ssing off, and it was truly the most high camp performance I’ve seen on a blog.
Darling Eddy, did you do it in high heels too?
Possum #28
just a few quick points :
“Dont get me wrong – prediction markets arent the only source of info – there are many. They are just a better representation of what’s going on at any given point in time in US politics than US polls.”
I am not suggersting that. My #19 point 6/ lists the human evaluation judgement psephological methodology that I’m suggesting is just as sound as prediction markets. You presumably disagree with my point 6/ ?
Aside only (think you misunderstood my lingo , The modelling I was referring to was the use of polling & other data for simulations not the poll margin. A Poll still relects a voters intent 6 months out based on an assumed election today but the odds are a factor of bids buys & sells today & prev.I said ‘the betting mark odds reflect today based on actual money flows today’ .Money is the buy & sell volumes still affect odds whether by contract bids buy or sell)
LOL Kirri.
Do you beat your wife?
FG,
Here’s a version you gotta luv.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vsa_xWLOghg
Having a look at that Intrade state by state market, i think they are nearly all correct.
The one i think they have wrong is Missouri. I think Obama will win there.
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080525_rfk_comment/
——————————
Mon May 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/nonsequitur;_ylt=AvVRn25MuP8fdg_HZ.IFGZhL6ysC
Mon May 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billday;_ylt=AvZnkRZM4q3iM9rQffhO7O_X.sgF
“Those wishing to pursue a conversational style of discussion (this ranges from those who…… to those who say “good night” to each other)”
Shocking really, good respectable pseph folk takin’ the liberty of exchangin’ pleasantries.
On the issue of Intrade having McCain’s probability of getting the nomination at only 95%, I assume part of the reason for this is that investors need some interest in return for having their money tied up till Sep/Oct/Nov?
Ron
#43
2nd para “I am not suggersting that” (addition): that polls alone are better)
KR at 30
Do you have an archive reference? This sounds interesting.
It’s funny, but the “offending” post to poor Eddy is here:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/806?cp=8
#776
…and it got slapped as ‘childish’ by our dear moderator, and was hardly more than some silly talk.
Eddy threw a right tantrum, if anyone’s bothered to read it, and THAT was really funny!
Pure goose, our Eddy, always has been and always will be.
Catrina,
Don’t encourage them, please!
Who gives a … about Eddy and KR’s little tiff??!
Thanks Pancho, good article. I’d forgotten about Cale’s version – which was covered by everyone else including Buckley.
Thanks to you too GG. Yep Buckley’s tragic version reflects its artist…and makes it a hard song to sing without getting choked up – which doesnt do much for my very average vocals.
Great song.
Hey Jen – no speakie hey? What a hypocrite you are!
Good Good Kirri – let the anger flow – I bet the ice cubes in your liquor are tingling now!
No more communication between ESJ and KR, please.
‘think you misunderstood my lingo’ Ronron
‘dont lecture me or take a high handed tone’ ESJ
Magic moments.
Catrina, pyjamas & pekinese…hint
Pedro, peripatetic psephy, 40 days & nights or so it seems, & still wise, welcome back to Electahillabillity: the last rites…
Catrina @ 15
asked
“Which language?” (to pick up the Intrade quotes)
Well at the risk of taking a turn off topic.
Nothing fancy just VB and some regular expressions to parse the html page.
But more importantly – how can I identify any mispricings? This is going to be an awefully long campaign and I need some punting on the side to keep engaged.
A dabble on Jim Webb for VP is the only insight I’ve had so far.
Possums earlier descriptions have me worried that its a rather informed and responsive market place.
GG & FG, try this for old time sake:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=BKmXSYi49IU
Here’s some soothing music,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tP9dZqkyUX0
Dyno @ 48
Good point. The betting markets (unlike futures market) require you to put the whole price down up front.
Mind you with cash rates in the USA at around 2% – its not a bad return – not sure how you hedge out McSame dropping of the perch.
WorkToRule at 58
I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.
At 60-40 the betting markets seem a v.risky proposition. After all Hillary was the favourite in January.
Catrina,
“I wouldn’t be worried about identifying miss-pricing – take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection. Any miss-pricing should fall out of the equation with a reasonable algorithm.”
Now that brings back memories.
That’s how I used to pick up chicks at the Croxton Park Hotel.
k/r
#39
You & others have such venom for a fellow Democrat Hillary that even when she does the wrong thing you still can not judge it in a balanced way.
“Robert Kennedy Jr. released a statement saying it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame. I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”
1/ The Kennedys are politically savvy & the statement was carefully prepared.
The Kennedys could have chosen to say 2 of the 3 phrases only
“I understand how highly charged the atmosphere is, and it was clear Hillary Clinton was only talking about the political time frame”
The Kennedys chose to add “but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense” They know Hillary is under media pressure why she is still campaigning in June. They know RFK (despite a campaign starting later) was factually still campaigning against Humphry in June 1968 , JUne the operative month , so they know her reference was solely to the June Primary timeframe only & said so.
Had they thought otherwise , they wouldn’t have lied & said so unambiguously
“but I think it is a mistake for people to take offense”
Hillary as I earlier bloged used a poor analogy innocently but in doing so it was poor judgement. The Kennedys gracously didn’t say the same as me because it was obvious. You guy have taken it beyond what the Kennedys said. If the Kennedys thought as yous have said and implied the same as yous it would have forced Hillary to concede that day
GG at 64
And did it work?
codger at 57
Did you know that the first item on google for pyjamas & pekinese brings up a PB page?
I can remember the NSW Libs at 1.90 and Labor at 1.80 in December 2006 and we all know how that turned out.
Catrina,
Like winning Tattslotto every week.
Catrina says
“take the result, grab the trend, build a forward projection”
Put it all on black …
catrina/codger
Happy to freely admit Ron called me names and vice versa. Happy to also admit that I can change my views and opinions AND that Ron makes some good points – like what ideology exactly does Obama have – hope juice?
Betfair has POTUS odds of Obama 1.70 and McCain 2.92. Hillary 19.50.
They seem about right to me.
Well hush ma mouth Catrina.
GG at 69
As is “in your dreams”?
ROTFLOL
Dream on GG!
http://www.catrinasbridal.co.uk/communities/004/006/107/021/images/4516620219.jpg
Remember in the Australian fed e the difference between the overall odds and the seat odds?
Interesting INtrade has something like Virginia as I think 55-45 to the R’s.
Fine ESJ @ 71, But ‘DOCS’ @ KR etc come on…run your ‘race’ as you see fit…no probs.
Catrina,
Nice shot.
Are you about to fall out of your algorithm? How much forward trend can you deal with?
ESJ @ 75,
Most of the individual seat markets in our election were very shallow – not much money bet, and plenty of scope for pollies or their friends to manipulate the odds in order to make a (rather pathetic) point. There were a few markets with some depth (eg Bennelong) but not all that many.
Not saying people did rig the markets for individual seats, but it’s at least possible.
Finns @59,
Nice version. Brings back a few good memories.
GG at 77
It’s all about risk and reward – you know that feeling when everything is about to coalesce but at same time anything can happen – and your 142% alive. I like 142%. What about you – how far are you ready to go?
78
Dyno
Ah, Bennelong, that brings back good memories! LOL
#71 – esj, gore vidal called it the cliche juice, the kind like the recipe for quiche, eggs you scrambled together, with few crumbs of bacon, and then half-baked and then you sell them to the people in the street
Codger 71 if you read the thread in its entirety I think the case is pretty clear. No need to say anymore.
I’d say essence d’fart Finns.
Codger
#57
you’ve missed the key area of dispute between me & Possum
Possum #28 “Prediction markets dont have “perfect record”- they have a NEAR perfect record. The Iowa markets started in 1988 (not 68), Intrade started in 2000.”
If Possum was right , do not read any polls or political articles about e/v states or look at sites that do 10,000 simulations of State’s % e/v winning chances , or ant politic date , just look at the daily Intrade. I do not agree either that their value is that good despite the ‘record’ and further I am saying at #43 that the basis of predicting elections is just as sound using the criteria I listed in #19 point 6/. And next time he is live I will make this additional point
Ron at 85
*sigh*
Catrina,
There can only be one answer.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=4PHfouJRA3Q
GG at 87
Something from the current century – please!
59
Thanks for that Finns. KD Lang’s version worked well with Kevin
Ron say
“I do not agree either that their value is that good”
Ron, you are spot on
You should extend the mortage (or take a new one)
And bet on Clinton to become POTUS
It will be a double victory – both moral and financial
Ronron
‘Codger
#57
you’ve missed the key area of dispute’
Electahillabillity?
Don’t think so. But am open to ‘butterfly’ persuasion.
Ronnie & Poss, i will leave the two of you to slug it out on poll vs intrade. but i simply find this amazing, it does not matter how you like to spin it. it has been like this for the last couple of months.
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
codger at 91
Where is that blindbutterfly when you need him?
Hovering not lurking…
codger says
“Electahillabillity”
Three point shot
RCP has just updated it’s delegate count bumping Obama’s SD lead up from 32 to 35 and his overall delegate lead to 193
#88, [Something from the current century - please!] – since you asked. the song and the singer fit you puuurfectly
90
WorkToRule
Yeah, you buy Clinton for 6 on intrade, wow, now there’s a fat profit if she came in! (She’s a bit ahead of Al Gore for President, but not by very much. Maybe Gore would be a better bet! LOL)
A horse at 15 to 1 you’d call a roughy, so I think we could call Hillary that too!
The Finns, I have some really bad news for you. Its the delegate numbers not electoralvote.com that counts. But you go on posting the numbers that suit you if it makes Hillary’s loss a little bit easier
Not sure if it has been previously mentioned – but Guy Rundle in his daily report on Crikey had a lovely observation on the prospect of Hilary becoming VP.
“Bill is apparently pushing for her to take it – which is the main reason why Obama would resist it. Can you imagine having Bill looking over your shoulder? Man that is so sitcom.”
Hey – its a sitom we’d all watch though
Obama only needs another 49 delegates to get to the magic number.
#99, are u a parrot or a chameleon tonite?
Will the Clintons put their heart and soul into helping Obama win in November, or is Hillary really hoping for a McCain win so she has another shot in 2012?
Finns,
Don’t show this to the others.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYgExez7BUY
100
WorkToRule
yeah, it’s 3am, Obama’s kids are asleep, and the phone rings in the Whitehouse. Who do you want to answer that call?
Bill: It’s your deal Barrack, let Hillary get off her fat ass and get it. She wanted to be Veep.
Ron at 85
Mate – that’s reductio ad absurdum.
Read all the polls – they’re excellent qualitative value for the good ones (or aggregates thereof)
Look at the simulations – it shows the difference between the polls and markets (and food for though of future market movements – do markets in some states follow the polls beyond the variance, and in others do markets lead the polls – all worthy brainfood)
Look at the strategies, indulge in the political plays – it’s all part of the beautiful spectrum of electoral politics.
All I’m saying is that polls in the US arent very good, and in terms of predictive value – go to the markets as your first port of call (but certainly not your only port of call)
103
Progressive
Tantalizing, waiting for HillBilly to eat crow and start hollerin’ for Obama, ain’t it?
I’d presume the Obama camp will have enough SD’s come out b/w now and June 3 so that he is well above the 2025 line – or wherever the line is re-drawn after the May 31 ruling on MI an FL.
I guess things are on hold so as not to be seen to be “forcing” Clinton out – but the mood of the party is to end this thing ASAP.
When do people think the SD’s in the wings will make the move?
Finns @ 102
Sadly, just another boring astute observer; butterfly landed if you like. Find net & have fun.
We’ll let you know when to laugh. OK? Promise.Too easy.
GG, another nail has gone into the coffin of “new politics”.
So much for a new kind of US politics
By Clive Crook
Published: May 25 2008 17:58 | Last updated: May 25 2008 17:58
Ferguson illustrationTwo weeks ago in this space I expressed the naive hope that a US presidential contest between John McCain and Barack Obama might be a cut above ordinary politics. Neither man, to put it mildly, is the conventional type. Both are men of principle, with strong convictions – but with a pragmatic streak as well, open-minded, committed to bipartisan co-operation and running against business as usual. With luck, I said, they would treat each other with respect and steer clear of ad hominem smearing. For once there might be an election about the issues.
Perhaps I misspoke. Mr Obama, increasingly certain of his nomination as the Democratic candidate despite Hillary Clinton’s refusal to yield, has begun turning his attention to Mr McCain. His principal line of attack is that the Republican nominee stands for “four more years of George Bush”. Mr McCain, meanwhile, has fastened on his rival’s avowed willingness to meet rogue leaders such as Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad “without preconditions” and charged him with a taste for appeasement.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aff0f36e-2a53-11dd-b40b-000077b07658.html?nclick_check=1
“reductio ad absurdum”
hmmm, you can say that last bit again, and again, and again.
#109, codger – so what do u want to be? i be kind to you, i let you choose which one(s) suit you the best, take your time, dont worry, take your time, dont hurry:
stupid, blockhead, cretin, dodo, dolt, donkey, dope, dork [slang], dumbbell, dummy, dunce, fathead, goon, half-wit, ignoramus, imbecile, jackass, knothead, moron, nincompoop, ninny, nitwit, numskull (or numbskull), pinhead, simpleton, stock, turkey, a ning nong
Codger Worktorule my P and andrew
what you guys cann’t handle is
I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary which none of the Obamabots have ever been able to intellectually challenge…and yous are embarassed because ‘the best candidate” argument logically is the by far the most electable.
So when yous say the delegate leader must be the best candidate you know it looks so lame because it is.
Then when I demonstate Obama has rorted the delegate numbers by excluding FL & MI and played the system to get his delegate lead solely on 90%+ black votes your embarassment becomes ‘bitter’
I should also add there’s another net 46 delegates in Obama’s lead that Obama got in four 4undemocratically run Caucus’s
So Obama’s delgate lead of 2% is very ‘tainted’ vs the ‘best’ candidate the by far more electable , Hillary , so no wonder yous are ‘bitter’ that your perceived victory if it occurs will be shaby and hollow. They’re the facts
Speaking about abortions! (One shouldn’t, but how ironic! LOL)
Quick, check the odds on Sebelius!
Robert Novak, friend to Neoconservatives and general asswipe:
There is substantial evidence she has been involved in laundering abortion industry money for distribution to Kansas Democrats. Kansas is the fiercest state battleground for abortion wars, making Kathleen Sebelius the national pro-choice poster girl.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/a_vicepresident_for_abortion.html
…it’s a tasty hit piece titled “A Vice-President For Abortion”, so it ain’t subtle.
OK, I’ll check her odds…
Finns is busted doing the cut and paste from thesaurus.com!
FINNS perhaps #113 could go into your forensic files as evidence of the “taintedly elected” Nominee ?
Puerto Rico is Sunday and the following Tuesday we have the State of Montana and good old South Dakota. I’m expecting 40% of the remaining delegates will come out of the closet before the end that week (i.e. the 7/6). I figure the remaining 60% (172 on current rules) will choose to stay undeclared up to the convention (keep in mind that little group only represents something like 4% of the super delegate pool). The 40% that come out will be equal to 114 delegates in the 13 days (if my thinking is right) – and that’s more than sufficient to close any arguments (irrespective of best or worst case scenario).
Poss, plead guilty but i did add the ning nong bit which probably is the best for Codger
Intrade don’t have Sebelius except as ‘other’ and the shortest odds are for…what for it, ‘other’.
Hill’s well down the list as you might suppose! LOL
“wait” for it…the dyslexic digit strokes agiaun!
Oh Delphic Oracle, can’t you just finally ‘nail it’? LOL
KR at 121
All I can say is that is looks like the Clinton’s chances are all but aborted at this time.
Possum
#106
Its your perogative to ignore my suggestion in #43 namely that the psepholgical methodology listed in my #19 point 6/ to predict election results is just as sound as prediction markets. You have neither agreed nor disagreed
You spent many blogs with diogenes supporting prediction markets & later with me , and when I’ve put an alternative option to prediction markets and you don’t comment then mate that’s reductio ad absurdum.
The Finns, your namecalling will not alter the fact that its the delegate count that matters and Hillary cant win. She has FAILED to make the electoral vote argument and you trotting it out repeatedly wont change that. So call me what your like. My candidate has the numbers and your’s doesnt. Your most welcome to join us in the real world
The Dear Leader was right all along for not stopping over in Tokyo on the way to Beijing. Even Taiwan now knows which side of the bread is buttered. Japan sometimes still view Taiwan as her “colony”, especially the looney right. “Bad will” indeed.
Disappointment in Tokyo over Ma’s inaugural speech
By Chang Mao-Sen and Fan Cheng-hsiang
Monday, May 26, 2008, Page 3
President Ma Ying-jeou’s failure to mention Japan in his inaugural address last week disappointed the large Japanese delegation, who had high hopes that Ma would continue the Japan-friendly line he took during his presidential campaign and after winning the election.
Many had expected Ma to pledge to bolster ties with Japan and reiterate his support for the US-Japan Security Alliance in the speech, Kyodo news agency reported.
Considering Ma’s focus on Japan at key junctures during his presidential campaign, the omission raised eyebrows. But Ma’s even stronger focus on China, whose relations with Japan are often strained, goes a long way to explaining why Ma apparently felt Japan — a key, albeit unofficial, ally — did not deserve mention, the agency quoted experts as saying.
“China definitely played a factor,” said Luo Fu-chuan, Taiwan’s former representative to Japan.
The Sankei Shimbun reported on Friday of a translation mishap at Ma’s lunch meeting with the Japanese delegation at the Presidential Office following the inauguration on Tuesday, which inadvertently turned the “goodwill” of the Japanese delegation into “bad will.”
The report said that as Ma had made no mention of Tokyo in his inaugural address, Takeo Hiranuma, leader of the Japanese delegation to the inauguration and head of the Japan-ROC Parliamentarian’s Council, told Ma during the lunch meeting that “Japan will do its utmost, and I hope that you will mention Japan in your next inaugural speech.”
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/05/26/2003412991
Ron, how do you do it?
With a forked stick? Wave it over a list of candidate’s names?
See which way it divines?
Impressive, can you do it for water too?
(Maybe you can get a Hillary autographed banjo after the convention? I’m told there will be lots and lots left over.)
Possum daliiance with termites leads to branch ‘bastardo’…& as a wise old gum once whispered to me…’that leads to much scattering of ‘butterfly’ hunters…’
Not a good look on the PC front…
Hey Finns I love you too!
codggy, didnt realise you care, i am touch
Take heart, Hillary-boosters– you should be trading intrade to the high heavens, not running it down. There’s something very interesting happening there that you’ll love.
Most of the states’ markets are around where you’d expect although there’s a lot of ’silly money’ on states marked as a 5-10% chance for the losing side, where in reality they’re far less than that. A minor surprise is Ohio which is an, I think, optimistic 62:38 to the Dems.
However, the monster surprises as Arkansas being listed as a 23% probability of a Dem pickup, and West Virginia a 20% pickup. Obama is going to get pumped in both of them. We can say that with some certainty even 5 months out. Even if Hillary were a 100% chance to win them if she were candidate (and she would be far from that), the markets now have her as something like a 7% chance of being the candidate. All together now: The Smart Money Knows Something We Don’t Know, but rather than scaring the horses (and decreasing their profit margins) by plunging huge amounts directly on the Hillary vs Obama race, they’re taking money on the side by filtering it through the November Arkansas and W Virginia markets!
Gee, do I have to supply all of your conspiracy theories for you?
Actually, seems not: Bill is out there supplying some of his own– “I can’t believe it. It is just frantic the way they are trying to push and pressure and bully all these superdelegates to come out. ‘Oh, this is so terrible: the people they want her. Oh, this is so terrible: she is winning the general election and he is not. Oh my goodness, we have to cover this up’.”
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/bill-clinton-ha.html
Hard to know what to say in response to that, other than: Bill, there are some lovely men in the corner who are very interested in your theory that the people’s desperate yearning for HRC is being covered up. They’d like to share a few words with you about the Illuminati and 9/11 in return.
Kirribilli Removals: Hillary’s concession speech will be one to watch. Will she be gracious, or bitter and twisted? If she is sincere about helping Obama win in November and does her bit during the campaign, I’d have no objection to a job for her in an Obama administration(Health Secretary?), but not VP!
Good night all! Play nice while I’m tucked up in bed LOL
Ron at 123 – I just disagree with your point 6. I think following the data works better.
Interesting: Obama is even competitive against McCain in Montana – hardly a hotbed of radical leftwing nutters.
SimonH at 130
Ouch, a wicked closing!
Simon H – on a serious point that will no doubt stir some consternation, the smart money knows that stuff about Obama needing a majority of the trailer park vote to win isnt worth a pinch of psephological pshit… so to speak
You want a real mindblowing Intrade figure – check out Mississippi.
Progressive at 131
I posted the YouTube prelude to Hillary’s concession speech a couple of days ago – did you see it?
Possum: the Obama people think they’ve got a chance of winning Georgia and Missisippi if the black voter turnout in November is huge.
“Ron at 123 – I just disagree with your point 6. I think following the data works better”
You are entitled tothe first sentence but not the 2nd. My # 19 point 6 is full of varying psephological data , did you mean following the’ money’ or having a go
Catrina: yes, I did see it!
Thanks!
Ron #113: “I’ve demonstrated here for 3 months that the by far more electable candidate was Hillary ”
Which reminds me of that famous editorial from a newspaper in country Victoria in August 1914: “Time and again we have warned the Kaiser”.
No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking
135
Possum Comitatus
What’s your point Poss, about Mississippi?
114 KR
That article by Novak is the clearest indication yet of who Obama’s VP will be.
Get a bet on Sibellius now.
Novak is the go to guy for a Repug pre-emptive hit piece. The trouble is they are fighting old wars. They have lost the abortion war in a big way.
Obama wants Sibellius as his VP. And it just could work out as an effective way to smooth over the aggrieved female Hillary loyalists. What better way to galvanise Democratic women voters than old troglodyte Conservatives and their never ending abortion lectures.
Obama/Sibellius 08….and at least 300 electoral college votes.
Bring it on.
140
Robert Bollard
Ah, good evening to ya RB, and right on cue with a bon mot, how nice.
POss #135 It’s all about the base innit? Silly buggers think the US is Aus and it’s all about some US equivalent of the aspirationals.
Possum
“No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”
Possum , that unsubstantiated allegation can be made against anyone putting up a value judgement based on psephological grounds. Are you suggesting you know I do because that is the implication intended or unintended. you may as well be clear
143
HarryH
I’d say she’d be right up there with a chance and Novak is going to try and kneecap any likely contender.
It’s an argument that appeals to the Catholics and religious conservatives, who’ve hardly been big on liberal Democrats since, oh well, Kennedy maybe? LOL
I doubt it’s wrecking the Democrat’s base is my point.
HarryH at 143
And there was I thinking that the abortion wars at PB were over and done with.
I can’t get over the fact that a Governor of Kansas is named after a Finnish composer.
Well, sort of….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_Sibelius
149
Robert Bollard
Different spelling RB
But very close.
RB
You can say SNAP!
KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.
RB – the Base get’s you in the game, everyone else gives you the margin. US politics is always two games in one;get your base out and attack the middle.
The Repubs problem is that the middle and what has become of their base are allergic to each other over most things.
Ron – too often, the grand plans of political campaigners, the propaganda that accompanies it (that whole “leaked sources said” bizzo) as well as leaps of faith on the demographic bandwagon just arent compatible with the data – and when they conflict I just choose to go with the data
Sibellius got elected in ruby red Kansas in 2002 and then re-elected in 06 in a landslide.
She is hardly on the nose to republican/Conservatives.
Attacking her over abortion will be a vote loser for Republicans overall in the General. But it’s all they know. Part of why their Party is decaying.
Bring it on.
153
Possum Comitatus
I’ve just looked and it says last trade at 12.5 for Dem?
I understand that Poss. My point was about Mississippi where I suspect it’s mostly about the base.
Possum
I also follow the data , even when its anti hillary as it was & is in some States. your implication could be taken that I do not. Thats your opinion but as i’ve already said anyone can say that about anyone else without proof
Harry,
I agree. You’d think that the Repuigs would have attacked her in Kansas over that already, and if it didn’t work in Kansas it’s not gonna work anywhere else. THat being said, her speech in reply to Bush’s State of the Union was apparently boring as batshit.
Independants en masse held their noses in 2004 and voted Republican because of national security as a result of Sep11 2001.
After the ensuing 4 years of Republican/Bush disaster, those Independants are going to be in a punishing mood.
RB@158 – It was a real bloody snoozer. She ain’t no Obama, but then again, just about everyone will have a charisma deficiency standing next to him. Solid and dull mightn’t be a bad way to play it.
RB
I think boring as batshit is just fine alongside the Illinois excitement machine.
She is female,conservative,progressive,white,stable,respected,popular.
Ron at 146
Ron, the general rule is that a comma (i.e. ‘,’) is not preceded by whitespace. In fact if you review a broad spectrum literature you will find very few if any occurrences of a comma preceding whitespace. The comma is a valuable and useful punctuation device because it separates the structural elements of sentences into manageable segments. Read on for further self development.
http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_comma.html
Blardy hell – thanks KR
My (ahem) apparently not very good data gathering script for the Intrade site is .. well, shit (that’ll teach me to write it myself!). Or else Systat is having import problems – entirely possible with that useless thing, but my money is on me being a poor programmer.
I just did the old fashioned copy and past into excel, cleaned it up and everything else in Fridays data entry is right – except Mississippi. Mind boggles.
And here I was talking horseshit about Mi all day!
Ha!
Mea Culpa
Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!
153
KR at 142 – Mississippi is at a 75% plus probability on Intrade of going Dem of not an insubstantial trading volume.
Possum, that is Minnesota, not Mississippi.
Harry #161: MY only problem is that you’ve just described the female Harry Truman.
162
Catrina
My dear Oracle, the content, if it could be called thus, IS the white space!
You have completely missed the point of his posts!
Oh, and the commas, they are integral additions to that very same white space.
Robert Bollard at 165
William – why aren’t you deleting posts like Robert Bollard at 165?
164
GhostWhoVotes
Why thanks GWV, that puts a complexion on things! LOL
If Mississippi burns…well, you can write your own punchline! LOL
Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data.
Assuming of course that I can get my act together and actually look at the hard data that is of some semblance of reality!
KR@168 – very Clintonian.
“Next up – How Hillary will win the Presidency!”
The Tzarina will die leaving her young son to inherit. He will have an adolescent crush on the Clinton’s and will switch allegiances. It will be the miracle of the house of Arkansas/Long Island/Pennsylvania/insert attachment…!
KR at 166
I don’t have time to write another decoder!
I’ll just put that down to another aborted attempt to change the world.
RB
I share your red pain…but realism must prevail in the non-Hillary world.
Ghosty – My Minnesota entry has 76, which is what it was late Friday. I’ve somehow got this cosmic entry for Missi at 77.5 for the Dems! I’m honestly f^*$#d if I know how that happened!
174
Possum Comitatus
ya gave me a fright, because I’d looked at those state numbers earlier and did a double take when you put that up! LOL
So I went and checked again, and guessed you’d blooped.
Another valuable and useful punctuation device is the hyphen, which is to be used when employing prefixes – an example being self-development.
http://owl.english.purdue.edu/handouts/grammar/g_hyphen.html
Now, please stop being a pain in the arse.
Possum at 174
Are you reading against state names or two letter abbreviations?
Possum Comitatus #141
“No Ron, I just mean following the data free from wishful thinking”
Possum that could have been taken as a go at me which I was not going to object to actually because I never have objected to any insults here. I just wanted to establish whether you were trying to or if it was unintendedly left vague
Possum Comitatus #169
“Ron, I’m not having a go at you – lifes too much fun to f*ck around with that stuff. Just saying that I give more weight to hard data than soft data. ”
Accept you were not having a go. Soft data is useless to me. Now I haven’t looked at that Intrade link yet you gave but if MI be 75% for BO I don’t see the value , I think MI will remain ‘red’ unless there is an incredible ‘black turnout’ , do not see it
And what is that I’m missing about RB’s comment?
And I love you back!
For three years in a row over 30 percent of Mississippi’s residents have been classified as obese. In the most recent (2006), 22.8 percent of its children were also classified as obese. This makes Mississippi the most overweight U.S. state.
Wiki
…the things you find on the net! LOL
KR at 181
Any details on where Mississippi stands on the economic spectrum?
KR #181 “That ole man river he just keep rolling the inhabitants along.” And with that I will roll my not-as-thin-as-it-used-to-be carcass into the sack.
Cat, I pull the data from the site into an excel format which are given abbreviations – then import that into Systat (which is the program I’m using at the moment for my US stuff – it’s import capabilities are limited in practice, hence the two stage process) where the States abbreviations are given a number. I stuffed up the Systat numbering regime (typo actually) – which is good because it took all of 10 seconds to fix it.
Hooray!
Ron – dont worry, the Missi price aint 75! (it’s actually 12.5) That’s just me being a l33t uber-typist!
Today fumble fingers – tommorrow.. ze world!
G’night Rob!
Cat asked,” Any details on where Mississippi stands on the economic spectrum?”
The word you’re after is “rooted” – never quite recovered from that whole civil war thing – although there were hints of a resurgence in WW2 and the 60s.Just didn’t quite pan out .
Do it! Make me proud.
182
Catrina
They’ve got booze laws that are really all over the shop (except Sundays! LOL) but this is truly amazing:
Mississippi is one of only a few states to have decriminalized the possession of marijuana, so that possession of 30 grams or less of marijuana is punishable only by a fine of $100 – $250 for the first offense with no jail time.
…how odd.
Poss
Considering you still retain amateur status and aren’t accepting google ads or site donations, we shall forgive your momentary incompetance.
Continue on.
183
Robert Bollard
Haha, very funny.
Possum at 186 and Kirrie before that
So what’s with this overwight thing? If conditions are really that bad – how come we don’t have lots and lots of skinny Mississippi kids running around in the dirt?
well Possum , scolling back there is a suggestion i think perhaps the 75% refers to MN , thats a solid blue State for both Hillary & Obama & usually in the past as well , so 75% seems conservative to me
182
Catrina
I’d have guessed it was something like what Poss said, but he already has.
Aw, come on Harry – you could at least smite me!
Kirri at 188
To put this into perspective – I need to know what 30 grams is going to set me back in Mississippi.
Shit food is the cheapest food cat. Poverty and obesity is highly correlated throughout the western world.
191
Catrina
Big Macs
poor=fat=cheap calories=low fitness=blob
…in front of the telly!
Poss, you get to say SNAP
Sheesh, I’m just not quick enough
Beat you by a Mississippi minute KR! Which at the going rate is about 900 calories
Is this a fact or a behavioral consequence?
194
Possum Comitatus
RSPCA would be down on him like a tonne of bricks mate!
Cat – both. They seem to create a feedback loop that reinforces each.
Out of here.
night
I mean – I can put together a brilliant meal for just a few dollars. And if I could proove my economic point then I’m proving a sociological point. If that’s right – then we are into all of this ‘change’ stuff – i.e. changing population behavior.
Cat
Butyou burn a few calories cooking and washing up after that fine cheap homemade meal.
No burning calories in the drive thru at Macca’s
Possum Comitatus
#184I “stuffed up the Systat numbering regime”
#194″aw, come on Harry – you could at least smite me!”
I’m HarryH , is that the same program thats got the near perfect prediction markets % success rate on it ? You did ask to be smite..d to repent
Its the great irony – the cheapest food is actually healthy food if you get into the habit of food preparation. But processed foods are only slightly more expensive, and certainly cheaper than fresh meat, that it leads to processed foods dominating the diet of the poor, which leads to health problems – as well as intergenerational effects where kids grow up not knowing how to prepare healthy food.. so it continues on and on. Add to that the cultural framing of fastfood being not only normal, but somehow socially superior – if you’re a fat, poor 13 year old kid, that’s the kind of message your ears are going to be pricked to hearing.
Gotta dash – till tomorrow folks, adious
Did McCain really vote for Al Gore in 2000? Or was he just pretending? Read what Josh and Toby heard at dinner…..What a hoot!
http://timesonline.typepad.com/comment/2008/05/josh-and-toby-w.html
HarryH at 205
Yes – I agree – but I object. Just on principal, going through the motions, creating something terrific, the ingredients, the aroma, the process, the drama, the execution – these are things that create the moment – and then the taste, the garnish, the smiles, the compliments, at least a couple of people asking for more, and every plate at the end of the night is as clean as a whistle.
*sigh*
Possum
#207
“Add to that the cultural framing of fastfood being not only normal, but somehow socially superior”
’socially superior’ ? what a gem of words , to pass onto the Ivory tower set to explain their socially ’superior thinking’ as they much caviar big Macs. They ill just love that. Told you Robert that wok excluded you from the ‘elitist’ set
210 Catrina
Do you home deliver?….and carry more than $20 in change?
HarryH at 212
Are you trying to sweet talk me?
I want it on record that that I accept nothing less that a $100 bill when we start talking about loose change!
*pout*
What is the message here?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BjYpkvcmog0
And Hillary is accountable.
Pat Buchanan on Churchill, Hitler and the Unnecessary War.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24828125#24828125
I love these moments …
#149 – Robert Bollard Says: [I can’t get over the fact that a Governor of Kansas is named after a Finnish composer] – RB, just for the record, i did not have SEX with that woman’s mother. I did put a SAX as the fifth harmony just above the 5/12 line.
It appears dear ol’ Mumble and Simon Jackman can only see doom for the Obama campaign:
http://www.mumble.com.au/
http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=744
The reason? He’s black! I guess all those who voted for him in the primaries hadn’t noticed.
So much for the Hillarious line that Obama is not electable. Survey USA posts Obama with a 48/39 advantage over McCain in a straight 2-way choice. The onslaught is coming: bye bye to the Republican era.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=b03c08ab-30b9-463d-8be2-5cb118e05b74
Re Mumble: and before GG, Finns and Ron get too excitied by Mumble’s opinion, he never gave Hillary any chance of beating the Republicans either (or of McCain winning the GOP nomination).
FG, couple of points. First, Mumble was betting on the Huckster to be next President earlier this year. Second, his piece seems an outsider looking in superficial analysis along the line of ‘WOT? A BLACK GUY?’, which most people got over sometime in 2007, and which also discounts the fact that Obama has won the whitest as well as the blackest states in this primary season against Clinton. Given that has rode through several ‘he’s a scary black guy’ moments so far (Wright, the ‘dressed’ photo, he’s not a muslim ‘as far as I know’ etc.) Mumble’s piece remains pretty shallow stuff.
With regards to Jackman, he presents a slightly more interesting case, but it is straight from the Clinton playbook, and refers just to primary support. It has nothing to do with how the General will play out. He lets his cards show a little in his last paragraph when he says “I’ve been asking people to tell me the states they think Obama will take from McCain”…and then links to (you guessed it!) electoral-vote.com.
Looks to me like Jackman got burnt supporting Clinton, and Mumble is talking sh!t.
Ferny, Mumble’s musings are just that: the speculations of an “opinionist”. America is changing and Obama’s success is a manifestation of this. Like Possum says, look at the data….
For those with an interest in historical trivia, here’s Centrebet’s odds from:
17 January 2007 – the top 6
Clinton 3.25
McCain 5.00
Obama 6.00
Edwards 9.00
Guiliani 11.00
Gore 11.00
And on 2 April 2007
CLINTON, Hillary 3.25
OBAMA, Barack 4.25
GIULIANI, Rudolph 5.00
McCAIN, John 7.00
GORE, Al 9.00
EDWARDS, John 10.00
“I have nothing but the greatest admiration for Senator Obama and would be proud to serve the American people alongside him.”
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080522_ready_to_cheer/
13 Harold
Thanks for that. The genocide in Rwanda is relevant to this election. As you know, the Hutu majority killed 800,000 Tutsi’s at the rate of 10,000 a day. Bill Clinton was fully aware of the massacre and did not intervene. In fact, he insisted that the UN reomove its peace-keepers given the political problems of “Black Hawk Down” in Somalia. He even had the cheek to land in Rwanda after the genocide and say that, in retrospect, he wished that he had done more. HE DIDN’T DO ANYTHING. HE HELPED IT HAPPEN.
During this campaign, Hillary of course has said she tried to get Bill to intervene which she cites as evidence of her foreign policy expertise. There is not a single soul who can remember her ever mentioning that the US shuold intervene in Rwanda.
Romeo Dallaire has an appalling case of PTSD as a result of what he saw and tried to do, without the help of the UN. He is a broken man.
219
Ferny Grover
What Pancho said! LOL
Essentially the exclamation “but he’s black!” has been over cooked.
As one of the bloggers says on Jackman, assume most of the Democrats who will NOT vote for Obama BECAUSE he is black will just NOT VOTE. A very small percentage will likely actually swap parties to vote for McCain. It would be a very peculiar ‘protest vote’ against your preferred party to vote for someone so diametrically opposed as McCain, but hey, I’ll concede there will be some. My guess is it would only be a very small percentage of those who are HRC supporters.
Against that is Obama’s ability to bring out the young, the previously apathetic, the minorities.
Will he offset the losses that his ‘blackness’ will supposedly cause him? My hunch is yes, but it’s probably impossible to verify. Exit polling would be the only way to measure such a thing ie after the event.
“It would be a very peculiar ‘protest vote’ against your preferred party to vote for someone so diametrically opposed as McCain,”
Big Statement!
Never heard of Reagan Democrats?
Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far. I have posted here about whether US voters are ready to elect a black (well half-black to be precise) president. The Dem primaries suggest yes, the polls suggest yes, so I am not as pessimistic. I think the Muslim thing needs to be confronted head-on as there is still misperception amongst some that he is a Muslim
Ah Gruffy, good morning to you.
Yearning for the good old days are we? In case you haven’t noticed, it’s 2008, and this is literally the arse-end of Reaganism, since the Idiot Decider, who claimed to be one, murdered it with 8 years of monumental stupidity and incompetence.
When you’ve worked out which century we are in, see if you can’t answer that question for yourself. You might be able to, with effort.
(And who said a little knowledge was dangerous, eh?)
I also think that Bush and the Repugs are so on the nose that Dem and independent voters will back the Dem candidate regardless of colour
Are there any odds on Obama’s VP choice?
Andrew,
Ben Smith has some interesting data concerning the muslim question. 10% of Americans still think Obama is a muslim, but 18% think that the sun revolves around the earth. You can lead a horse-brained moron to knowledge, but you can’t make him think. I don’t reckon this is one to worry to much about, when seen in this perspective.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
231
Andrew
When 80% say the country is heading down the toilet, you get the feeling ‘change’ is in the air! LOL
By the way, these polls are at historical extremes, and for good reason, the country is in extreme distress. Everything from consumer confidence numbers to housing foreclosures show extremes, and all this against a backdrop of rising costs of living and stagnant wages.
Voters will be wanting to wallop someone, and the Republicans are already bracing themselves for it.
“Reagan Democrats”….that’s really funny, it’s almost black and white TV type funny.
The world has changed in a BIG way, and for the US, they’ve slipped off the perch on so many metrics it ain’t funny, so a crumby old cowboy like Reagan can’t just do the ‘aw shucks ain’t we the greatest nation on earth’ schtick and get away with it.
Even Americans are starting to realise they aren’t any more…and that’s taken some doing for them! LOL
Andrew: I agree with you, it’s not a good year to be a Republican running for reelection. The results of the recent special elections prove that the GOP could be in for a hammering in November. McCain is really going to have to run as almost an anti Republican-pseudo Democrat if he’s got any chance.
Kirribilli: G’day to you too buddy!
So, do we agree that June 3 will be the day Hillary concedes?
232
Progressive
Intrade, use the 2008 Elections link in the left menu and then select Dem VP
KR,
Boo!
233
Pancho
Many years ago I had a saying: you can lead a hippy to happiness but you cannot make him think.
Variation on the theme.
236
Progressive
What? And waste a chance that Obama may cop a bullet between then and the convention?
Are you kidding me? LOL
Nah, she’ll probably weasel along trying to ‘prove’ she’s the best candidate and besides Obama hasn’t ‘won’ really, he’s just got the most delegates and…
(fill in whatever crap you want to! LOL)
I don’t actually think she wants the public humiliation of the convention discarding her, so yes, I assume she will concede before then, but not June 3rd. She’ll go fester for a few days, or weeks, but then, after sending out the signals, she’ll bow out.
Dying in Denver would be way too humiliating, but hey, she does ‘embarrassing’ pretty well, so who knows? Maybe she’ll do it, but I think her minders will have to sedate her and carry her away by then.
Before the convention is my feeling.
238
Greensborough Growler
That’s it Gruffy, now put some consonants with it and you’ve actually formed an entire word.
Come on boy, you can do it, we know you can! LOL
Kirribilli: thanks mate!
If Hillary doesn’t concede on June 3, I’d expect a shitload of so far undeclared superdelegates will come out and declare for Obama(Carter, Gore, Pelosi etc).
Hillary supporters here, I admire your loyalty to her, but she’s finished, admit it LOL
Has Ron learnt how to spell yet? I’d take his comments more seriously if I could understand what’s he going on about LOL
Red State Update: Sayonara Karl Rove
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WWNb1CBiMY
I’ve a hunch that Gore will not endorse anyone. Environmental gurus have to stay above the fray.
But then, I didn’t think Edwards would endorse anyone either.
I’m sure Gore won’t endorse Hillary: a lot of bad blood between him and the Clintons. He’ll probably act as the party elder and unifying figure at the convention.
As for Edwards, methinks Obama dangled the Attorney General carrot before him .
And Obama also signed up to Edward’s anti poverty agenda.
Edwards won’t be VP, but he’s going to campaign hard for Obama in certain places, and the Obama people think they can win North Carolina this time(Edward’s home state). I’d expect Edwards to be either Attorney General or Secretary of Labor.
FG @ 219,
I must admit I admire the tenacity of spirit that allows the Obama supporters to cling to their canards about their favourite even when confronted with facts and informed opinion to the contrary. It is highly amusing when psephological craftsmen such as Brent and Jackman have their credibility questioned and motives debased simply because they are out of line with the Gospel according to the Obamists.
Putting race to one side, Obama also has problems with religion (Yes, Uncle jerry will re emerge) and his drug taking background. These issues go to the man’s character. Experience is also an issue that will dog Obama. There is also the historical fact that depite the chagrin of the Liberal left, US voters keep on electing right wing Repubican candidates as POTUS.
McCain’s age is obviously a factor. Dissociating himself from the mistakes of the current Republican regime is another. Holding on to the Christian base that has supported successive administrations is a further problem he must address. Can he change things. Maybe he can!
The Dems may win this year, but at this stage it is too close to call.
The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger.
Perhaps Hillary could be persuaded as Special Roving Ambassador for Mis-spokenness. Toss in a few sweeteners; Air Force 3, a “soft” Senate seat for Chelsea in 2010, and The Party picks up her campaign tab.
OTOH, she could be really getting off on the martyrdom trip. Stranger things have happened. Maybe HRC won’t get her motor really hummin’ till the moment of abject political humiliation. Some politicians seem to go to exraordinary lengths to gratify themselves in this fashion.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/05/26/when_was_the_1992_presidential_race_over.html
Just heard Neoconservative guru, Francis Fukyama on ABC radio distancing himself majorly from BushCo and doesn’t want to see a Republican re-elected, suggests Obi is the best man for the top job, and BHO as President symbolises America’s ability to renew itself.
GOPpers are so yesterday in tomorrow’s America.
GG, no candidate is perfect. I reject your comments about Obama supporters as I have posted my concerns about the race and Wright issues. Do you concede that Hillary had limitations too, a lot of baggage and greater negative ratings in terms of honesty, so she was far from perfect (and the party rejected her also of course).
A breath of fresh air from my moderate friends at counterpunch. (Apologies to GG)
With the walls closing in around her, Hillary unveiled a final argument: Karl Rove, the man John Conyers wants to put in leg-irons in the crypt of the Capitol, says she’s the better candidate against McCain. Rove also swore there were weapons of mass destruction. Clinton fell for that one, too.
The Clinton camp has become so entrenched in their racial rhetoric that I’ve begun to wonder if they begin their morning strategy sessions with a screening of the Rodney King beating tape as a motivational tool.
The Gothic Politics of Hillary Clinton
http://www.counterpunch.org/stclair05212008.html
“Experience is also an issue that will dog Obama.”
GG, Obama has successfully defused that grenade by pointing out that all the accumulated experience in the Bush White House hasn’t done so well. People like Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz etc had oodles of foreign policy “experience”, yet they dumped America into the unmitigated disaster that is Iraq. Afghanistan ain’t going too well either.
Q: When Bush leaves office, which Muslim state will be left as the most influential and stable state in the region? A: Iran. Well done.
Andrew,
I am shocked you reject my comments. Should I now indulge in a KR like rant questioning your intelligence?
All candidates have personal limitations. It is just the things you rate as important are not so important to me. I believe the “honesty” issue has been over rated and I could build similar cases re Obama’s character. Of course, you would not agree, but that is fine by me.
Both Hillary and Obama have gathered 17-18 million votes by the end of the campaign. Hardly see that as a rejection for either candidate. Of course, a winner will emerge. But despite the incessant rhetoric to the contrary, who that is has not been decided.
Cheers.
“There is also the historical fact that depite the chagrin of the Liberal left, US voters keep on electing right wing Repubican candidates as POTUS.”
Lately, American voters have been studiously avoiding electing Republican candidates into Congress. 4 special elections (”by elections”) have been held this year, when the seats became open due to the departure of the sitting Republican members. The Dems have won 3/4 of these seats – 1 each in Illinois, Lousiana and Mississippi, all in (previously) very safe Republican districts. What’s more, the Republican sleaze machine used Obama in their campaign ads for these special elections, and tried to tie the Dem candidates to Obama and his “liberal” policies. As a campaign strategy, it backfired badly. Obama turned out to be a positive, and voters turned out in droves to vote against the Republican candidate – even in Mississippi. Black voters are especially energised – which is how the Dems hope to pick up a few southern states (incl. N. Carolina, as someone mentioned). If McCain can’t get the Religious Right out to vote, there’s no way the GOP can counter that.
Re: the mumble and Simon Jackman articles: the ‘ordinary white American people won’t vote for a black man’ line is over-simplistic because it presumes uniformity in a very heterogeneous country (both generally, and on this issue).
The truth on the racial aspect of this Presidential contest on the evidence to date is as follows:
1. Rural white voters in the SE will not vote for this black man (barring an unexpected change of heart). These are largely safe-red states that the Dems lost in 2004 and mostly would have been lost by HRC (notable exception Florida, which would have been a 50/50). Despite his weakness with this demographic, he is some chance of winning Virginia and NC (and, more remotely, SC). If he does, it will be because the numbers of black and white urban voters who support O, simply overwhelm the white rural voters. The fact that Obama is some chance of actually gaining states that are located in the weakest part of the country for him (at least in terms of the anti-black vote), highlights how he is really going to pose electoral-vote problems for McC.
2. White voters in the NE and California, support him in sufficient numbers that safe Dem states will stay safe. There is no electorally-significant anti-black vote in those states.
3. Voters in the Pacific northwest, Rocky Mountain states and midwest absolutely love him to bits (compared with other Dems). And they’re white as the driven snow.
4. Voters in the SW like him around about as much as any white equivalent (i.e. any anti-black racial factor is cancelled out by pro-this-guy sentiment). And (while O stacks up fairly evenly with HRC), who cares about Texas? It was and is a Dem loser regardless of the candidate (barring a Reagan-slide in reverse).
5. The real deal-breaker-or-maker is how voters in the mideast/Great Lakes take to him. There is a lot of internal variation among those states; but there’s no real evidence that those states where he is behind where HRC would be (e.g. Ohio) is due to the ‘black man’ thing, rather than just being due to the fact that rust-belt working-class voters were HRC’s natural constituency and he still has to win them over. That is to say: you don’t need the skin-whitener. You just need to stop drinking the lattes.
I wish that mumble.com.au had comments.
Simon Jackman’s thing is more scholarly. However, it doesn’t establish (nor does it seek to establish) that Obama is likely to lose because he is a black man; and mumble misreads it if he uses it for that purpose. Jackman simply establishes that racially resentful whites were more likely to vote for HRC (no shock there). He then notes the figure of 31% of HRC voters who have claimed they will support McC instead, while correctly noting that such a figure (apparently obtained in March!) during a hotly contested primary, many months out from the election, is highly dubious. He concludes by doubling back by way of speculation: that if even half of that HRC-but-not-Obama sentiment holds, it will cause him major worries.
However, that’s just a guy speculatin’. There is no basis for concluding that ‘half’ of that 31% will actually turn out for McC, and even if there were, the real question would be, ‘Where?’ If 15% (or more) of HRC’s support base in Arkansas, West Virginia and Mississippi are going to vote for McC, the Dems would say, ‘Go crazy! Do your worst!’
Furthermore, it was completely rational for voters in any open or semi-open primary to go with the Dem primary and not the Repub; they wanted to have a say in a real live contest. Many people who voted for both HRC and Obama in the primaries (in open-primary states) are going to vote for McC in November. Because they are committed Repubs (or at least strongly lean Repub) and were always going to.
And the closer, “Who won the presidency without winning Ohio?” is just the sort of coincidence-masquerading-as-causation that has been discredited on this site (and others). The real question (as he tacitly acknowledges in the sentences above) is, “Who won the presidency without winning 270 electoral college votes?” How the winner gets there is up to them.
The problem with some of those making predictions is that they assume cultural attitudes and beliefs remain static over time.
Therefore, they claim Obama can’t get elected due to 1) inherent racism (Obama is Black); 2) inherent conservatism (Obama seems progressive); 3) inherent propensity to fall for smear attacks (Obama vs. Wright).
But culture is dynamic. It changes over time, sometimes quickly. So, if attitudes change in the U.S. for whatever reason, then the existing set of “rules” no longer apply.
You can only make sound predictions by factoring in changes in the attitudes of the people. Are they still as racist as they used to be? Would they overlook race in favour of something else? Are they still so easily fooled by smear tactics? Are they still wanting conservatism as much as they used to? And so on…
I believe the U.S. is undergoing a great deal of change right now, and there are many reasons why. Obama’s ability to trump Hillary, despite her profile, funds, and other resources, is an indication of this change.
This is how people like Adam got it so horribly wrong (and I will put Brent in the same category after the election this year). They assume society is the same today as it was over the past twenty years, and therefore apply all the same old rules. In Adam’s case, the variables seemed to fall together to point to an easy win for Hillary in the primaries, and he was so confident of this, he poured scorn over the rest of us who suggested otherwise.
Meanwhile, many Hillary supporters have been making the same mistake by assuming that Hillary gives the Dems the best chance of winning in Nov. She doesn’t. She gives them a WORSE chance of winning because society is changing in a direction that no longer supports the kind of politics that Hillary plays, and if you look closely at this primary season, all the evidence of this change is right there.
Obama will win in Nov. And then it will take the MSM another year or two to work out how he managed to do it when all the “rules” seemed to go against him…
GG @ 248: “It is highly amusing when psephological craftsmen such as Brent and Jackman have their credibility questioned and motives debased simply because they are out of line with the Gospel according to the Obamists.” The tragedy is that you’re actually serious.
All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?
Mumble, in my opinion, based his view on a combination of his generalised beliefs about American voters’ racial biases (i.e. not supported by any particular evidence) and a misreading of what the Jackman research actually establishes. I don’t think that, if he read that opinion, he would fear for his safety or cry into his pillow tonight.
Kakuru,
Disagree. Experience has not been defused as an issue.
McCain is probably the most qualified candidate to run for POTUS in an awful long time. And, the road he has travelled in life has not been easy. Experience is important because it is a factor in a person’s judgement. When push comes to shove this issue will break for McCain (less so for Hillary, but definately against Obama).
If you think “McCain is the most qualified person to be POTUS in an awful long time” you are more delusional than i thought you were.
He is a war hero…….and that’s about it.
Major economic troubles have hit America and this guy has admitted he knows jack about the economy.
He is a dud candidate. He is 72yo and presents terribly. He will get slaughtered during the campaign.
He does not exude “change”. And whether you like it or not, that is what will win this election..”change”…..not “race”…not “liberalism latte sipping”….not……..
“In an eerie echo of the “Brooks Brothers riot” depicted in the HBO movie, when shouting Bush operatives and Republican congressional staffers who had been dispatched to Florida managed to shut down the Miami-Dade County recount, CNN reported on Thursday that Clinton supporters “are planning to swarm the capital in a little over a week to pressure Democratic Party leaders as they gather to decide the fate of the Florida and Michigan delegations.” In 2000, the candidate most willing to deploy principles and trash them, according to the tactical needs of the moment, was awarded the prize. In 2008, maybe not. ?”
http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/06/02/080602taco_talk_hertzberg
SimonH,
See 222 and 219 has a smidge of gratuitous insult IMHO.
But certainly not your piece. Agree, that Andrew engaged sensibly.
Cheers.
GG, I can’t see Hillary as president going down in history as one of the world’s great leaders. Nor McCain. Obama might not either, but at this stage he does seem to have the most potential to turn out to be something special. That’s enough for me to want to see him win the nomination and let’s see what happens. If nothing else it’s time the US had a president who can at least speak eloquently.
BTW, what happened to your ‘eee’?
HarryH,
Senator for 25 plus years? Ran for President in 2000? Totally irrelevant I know.
Please tell me what could convince doubtful voters about Obama’s judgement and experience?
Triton,
Won’t know till any of those events happen.
I thought US Presidents had planes to deliver their eloquence.
“eee” is a secret. If you find out, you have to buy me a Christmas present.
#
249
Edward StJohn Says:
May 27th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger.
… it looks like Eddy has finally got it! LOL
Yep, the Crown Princess of the Democratic Nomination 2008 is now hanging over a cliff by some very thin threads eg her “electahillability” and a possible bullet trajectory.
Finally, Eddy is facing the facts.
(I’ll just be happy to collect my winnings and watch Eddy go down on the losing YET AGAIN! LOL)
Yeah, and Fooky (to his friends? LOL) is a registered Republican. I like the way he summed it up: there will be a lot of us this year.
So another antidote to Obama’s ‘blackness’? Republicans who actually think, and have decided their party is a stinking corpse.
A fine sense of smell can lead people to the correct conclusion it seems.
267 That’s in reply to you above Ecky, by the way.
GG says: “McCain is probably the most qualified candidate to run for POTUS in an awful long time. And, the road he has travelled in life has not been easy. Experience is important because it is a factor in a person’s judgement. When push comes to shove this issue will break for McCain (less so for Hillary, but definately against Obama).”
Disagree with GG 100%. Agree with HarryH 100%. When I was living in Iowa in 2006, I was in the audience of a filming of an interview of McCain by Chris Mathews, and I saw the man himself. McCain is a lightweight when it comes to most substantive issues, including the economy and foreign policy. He may have “experience”, in terms of being a long-time senator and a decorated war veteran and prisoner. But on the issues, McCain is all over the shop. It’s actually a little frightening. Just look at his botched attempts to woo the Religious Right. Is he with them or against them? He can’t seem to decide. “Experience”, my foot.
GG
Robert Byrd has been a senator for about 125 years.Experience is problematic, just like everything else.
You have to be on top of the issues…and John McCain isn’t.
Obama is the superior candidate for this election and national mood. McCain would have been ok in 04 when the economy was humming, the war was thought to be winnable and the Republican brand wasn’t in the trashcan. But in 08 he is in big trouble.
Obama is the right candidate for this election. Don’t get me wrong, race is still a minor issue in America. If he was white he would win by slightly more, but he will still win comfortably.
It will be a step forward for America when Barack Obama is elected President.
256
SimonH
Good post, and I agree with most of what you’ve said.
However I’m curious as to why Ohio is being cited as the litmus state. On current polls (like electoral vote,com for example) Ohio has Obama and Clinton ahead of McCain, but intrade has it by the widest margin, 60/40 for the Dems.
I wouldn’t be counting on it if I was McCain, and Obama will drive the enrollments and getting the independents firing.
McCain will know that a Republican presidential candidate has never won the White House without winning Ohio. He might worry about that! LOL
My opinion isn’t based on Simon Jackman’s post. I linked to him because it was relevant/related.
I have no data to back up what I wrote; it’s just “what I reckon”.
Just a point on current polls:
At the moment the question is being asked:
Will you vote for John McCain or Barack Obama?
Will you vote for John McCain or Hillary Clinton?
They are currently both ahead of McCain.
Imagine what the percentages will be when it is:
Will you vote for Democrat Party or Republican Party?
We will be in Rudd territory…55/45+
and there is no way you can win the electoral college from that position.
272
Peter Brent
Thanks for clarifying!
Can we call it a ‘mumble’ rather than an opinion based on anything? LOL
Harry, if I remember rightly Bush was behind Kerry by 10 points at one point during the 04 election
Ferny
I can only say again…04 is not 08. The mood has totally changed. Independants and some Democrats held their nose and put faith in the current administration to win the War on Terror.
They had no economic fears to factor into that vote.
In the ensuing 4 years Bush trashed that faith.
And there is NO WAY McCain will turn out the base like Bush did in 04.
And the Democrats, mainly thru Obama, have expanded their base significantly.
Roll on November.
HarryH,
You gotta admit your predictions have been very unreliable to date.
“”On April 7, we also won in Kansas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. On April 9, Paul Tsongas announced that he would not reenter the race. The fight for the nomination was effectively over,” – Bill Clinton in his autobiography.
So much for the June bullshit.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/
HarryH,
I’d have to agree with GG, you seem to have a large case of hope over reality.
Ohio had a very large voter turnout jump between 2000 and 2004 (nearly 0.9m extra votes),
but it was still only about mid sixties percent of eligible voters (probably quite good by
US standards)
Kerry lost on just a bit under 120,000 votes, but lets assume the turnout is even bigger
this time, and just compare primary voting patterns in the last four years:
Total Dem Primary Vote in Ohio 2008/2004: 2,354,721 1,221,026
Total Rep Priamry Vote in Ohio 2008/2004: 1,010,131 1,365,962
As we can readily see, Dem primary numbers this year almost doubled, and Republican numbers
dropped by about 35%.
There’s no definitve way to assume that these numbers will apply to the general election, but it must indicate that the Dem base has grown, is fired up to vote, and the opposite is true for the Republicans.
You’d have to put the Dems in front to win, even without looking at the polls or intrade.
279
Edward StJohn
Playing with Gruffy again Eddy? Mind you wash your hands after all the finger painting, won’t you?
There’s a good boy.
ESJ – gotta step in here pal. What is your streak? Howard, Clinton…are there any before or after that I’m missing or is it just 0 from 2 on this board? If we were to get all psephy, I guess that ain’t too much data to be working with, but you still appear to be idling at the starting point.
Pancho,
Any comments about KR’s septy contributions.
GG and Eddy disagree with me…..i’ve never felt more comfortable.
The only prediction i’ve got wrong is Hillary’s withdrawal. I’d say my prediction rate is a couple furlongs ahead of you two jokers lately.
Continue on comrades.
280
Not really. McCain was obviously the Republican nominee by then and the race was still going for the Dems. Whereas in 2004 Kerry had it all wrapped up by March. I don’t think you can really use those numbers to compare. Ohio will be close.
GG – no, only the Novembery ones.
#249 – Edward StJohn Says: [The tragedy of course GG is that what was a sure bet has now become a cliffhanger] – ESJ, Obama has destroyed the Dems’ Mandate from Heaven to govern for the next 2 terms at the least.
#221 – Ferny Grover Says: [Re Mumble: and before GG, Finns and Ron get too excitied by Mumble’s opinion] – FG, why should i? i been mumbling and rumbling about this long before the Mumble’s stumble and mumble. Poor Jackman, he was once the darling of the Obamabots here during the Fed election.
#258 – SH: [All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?] Tip hat and Well said Simon. It looks like my parrot has stuffed it up again.
Pancho,
Touche, LOL.
Finns and Simon
RE this
[#258 - SH: [All of those responses dragging the credit and motives of Brent and Jackman through the mud. Ugly, upsetting reading. It’s sad to see how the standard of debate has descended.
For example, this one from Andrew: “Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far.” Andrew, hang your head in shame. Why can’t these Obamists play the ball and not he man?] Tip hat and Well said Simon. It looks like my parrot has stuffed it up again.]
To be fair to Andrew, i don’t think he was saying that Mr Brent had nefarious motives in raising Obama’s colour. I think he was trying to say he was overestimating its significance.
#289, YHH, i take full responsibility for the parrot. i will take the blame for not training him properly. i promise to try harder.
*tosses Finns a sarcasm detector
now go back and re-read SimonH’s #258 and his use of Andrew’s comment.
not sure if any of this quote has been posted here.
June 4 sounds good…
At the weekend, former president Jimmy Carter, one of the undeclared super-delegates in the Democratic Party, said the race was likely to finish soon after the last primaries on June 3, when victory would be delivered to Senator Obama.
“I’m a super-delegate, having been president before, and I think that a lot of us super-delegates will make a decision … quite rapidly, after the final primary on June 3,” Mr Carter told Sky News.
“I think at that point it will be time for (Senator Clinton) to give it up.”
Have been looking at the turnouts at http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/
It seems that in recent times, the turnout has hovered around the 50% mark pretty regularly. Not since the late 60s, early 70s has it approached 60% mark. I know that the dem. primary numbers have been really high, but is there anything other than our own excitement to suggest that the November numbers will be high? Has anyone seen anything that links primary numbers to turnout numbers?
285
Phil
Ohio and Texas Rep Primary was March 4th, and Mitt, Thompson, Ron Paul and Huckabee all garnered votes.
Huckabee officially then withdrew, so I doubt you’d say that it was ‘all sown up’ by the Ohio Rep primary.
OK, I’ll go back and look at some of the dates before Mar 4th for comparison.
Ferny , Andrew , Pancho & Blindoptimist , codger etc
Ferny Grover #219
“It appears dear ol’ Mumble and Simon Jackman can only see doom for the Obama campaign.The reason? He’s black! I guess all those who voted for him in the primaries hadn’t noticed”
Andrew #229
“Think mumble is correct is raising the issue of Obama’s colour, but I think he has gone too far”
“Pancho #222 & Blindoptimist #229 also only disagreed with Mumble & Jackman”
How can you guys reconcile your differing standard
You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.
Yet yous have been quite happy to not only fiercely condemn me and call me or imply I’m a racist even though I’ve NEVER said what either Mumble or Jackman have said and yous let thm off lightly (I won’t)
What I’ve said is 7 points.
Firstly , Obama’ delegate lead itself is the result of Obama gaining 90%+ black votes against a fellow white Democrat in key high black voter Primarys. I am stating a statistical demographic fact , (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Second , I’ve queried what policys the black Democrat Obama had , that were so superior to the white democrat Hillary 2 result in Obama getting 90%+ black votes from black Democrat voters (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Third, Obama has a monority of the white, Hispanci & Asian vote. I am stating a statistical demographic fact (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Four, I’ve statd these white/hispanic/asian Obama % minority votes stats destroy the credibility of Obama’s central theme of ‘”racial harmony” and ‘a more complete Union’ Obama key message (unlike Mumble/ Jackman
Fivfth , I’ve said Obama gets less white votes in big black vote States. I am stating a statistical demographic fact (unlike Mumble & Jackman). The more obviously black a community was the lower the black vote. To uninformd responses , I explained the reasons & why it wasn’t racism (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
Sixth , crucially I’ve also stated repeatedly that Obama gets more white votes in small black vote States than big black States ( a few ties even more than Hillary) and explained the reasons saying its not race but many reasons including more affluent demogrophics
Seven , I’ve said Obama has played the democrat system (through silence) via these (90%+ black votes. The Democrat Party’s delegate race system was designed to pick the “best” candidate from Democrat registered voters, assuming there was no ‘race color’ as a prime factor.This time per point 1/ it has been. I said next time 2012 it may be a ‘Hispanic’ and with the same ‘delegates won’ distortion. I’ve said any downtrodden ethnic minoritys vote will be influenced by their ‘own’ unless the Candidate seriously makes it an issue not to do (unlike Mumble & Jackman)
I’ve also said Obama can not win FL due to the hispanic and j.e.wish voting blocs. Yous regard my above opinions as racist , and thats your perogative to think that and I’m not objecting. Howev I do not understand why Mumble & Jackson’s comments (see my first paragraph) would not be regarded by your standards to me as being worthy of stronger ‘disagreement’ , seeing ‘racist’ is a term freely used here
For mine , Mumble : his statement is a crude sweeping Nationality ‘racist’ slur with a lame caveat and , at best an election conclusion based on an ignorant sweeping statement without evidence . Jackson uses a clumsy divisive term ‘racial resentment’ for his chart like a Newspaper headline and his charts & graphs are based on total National black vs others votes to conclude racial resentment is one of the few attitudinal predictors (and is a powerful predictor) of the Obama/Clinton break.Not at all , in a huge no. of the Primarys (if Jackson had used State rather than National figures) one can see its not a predictor at all because there are hardly any black voters there , making all his charts/graphs questionable value. Secondly there are numerous other important predictors of the vote split , none of which were mentioned. Not only is the conclusion faulty ( in a huge no. of the States its inapplicable to) but the racial resentment term was divisive & because racial resentment itself was whole thrust of the article many uninformed readers would draw a false racial resentment (‘bitter’) view of black people. So Mumble & Jackson , I think your handling of the black issue was appalling
knowing sweet FA about chat rooms etc, why would I/you choose to do that rather than post on this site?
296
Jen
You could, for example, have long scintillating discussions with Ron.
William
Can bludgers be sent to the chatroom if they want to continue a sadomasochistic discussion? How does it work?
HarryH, Pancho et al
I picked Labor to win the Federal election – from early August onward. Happy for you to endulge your prejudices but its a matter of record.
2008 – should be a Democratic year. No question the US is badly on the nose and the Republicans are rightly being punished. The question is why are they even competitive.
Why?
A presumptive nominee who will win his party’s nomination with a minority of votes and excluding 2 swing states from the process.
Who will be suspect with the j.wish vote.
Who has seperatist associations – weather underground, the good reverend etc.
Who has minimal policy positions etc
Who is black
and yes he (BHO) has turned a sure thing into a close run thing.
I wonder if McCain will role the dice and say I am in it for one term and to get us out of Iraq honourably – it may actually be a very tempting stop gap option in the states.
Intersting the swing states in INTRADE, Ohio, Missouri, Florida and Virginia. These are not “hope” orientated states.
Maybe BHO should go the whole hog and name Deval Patrick as his running mate.
I can only ask that they do so, Diogs, and that certainly was the idea in putting up the link. I’m not surprised though that I’m not having much luck.
Ron:
“You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.”
I called it a ‘mumble’ rather an opinion based on anything.
Doesn’t that qualify?
If you want ‘fierce condemnation’ should I also growl?
What would you suggest? Whips? Bludgeons?
What?
Diogenes, Vale Sydney Pollack!
ESJ, in response:
Well, not according to 5 of the 6 possible permutations of the popular vote, according to Demconwatch. While no doubt most will be bored by going over this again, in all likelihood after PR, he only way that Hillary can claim to win is to count all of the unsanctioned vote in Florida, count Michigan to her 329,000 to 0, and then discount any vote from all caucus states. Putting the votes vs. delegates argument aside for a minute, this argument resides in Hillary fantasyland.
Not according to all the data we have available. I guess the last line of this piece was directed at concerned citizens like yourself.
“Gallup’s tracking poll over April, found that Jewish respondents preferred Obama to Sen. John McCain 61 percent to 32 percent. During April as the Wright controversy exploded, “Rather than declining between March and April,” Gallup writes, “support for Obama versus McCain among Jewish voters has increased slightly, from a 23-point margin in favor of Obama (58% to 35%) to a 29-point margin (61% to 32%).”
Even with this numbers, which are quite convincing, why do I have a feeling we still haven’t heard the last of this…”
http://washingtonindependent.com/view/obamas-jewish-vote
Yikes! I guess it remains to be seen whether the mud will stick but I’d make two points. One, if the Clintons can’t get it happening, I have doubts anyone else can. And two, political ground is shifting. If the US parallels the recent Australian situation in this regard (as it has in much else) fearmongering won’t have the currency it once had come election time.
You can keep believing this, or you could have a look through Obama and Clinton’s sites (or have a read of either of his two books, or a look through his 12 years of legislating at State and Federal level, or decade teaching to get a bit of an idea about him). Or you could understand that the overarching policy differences between Obama and McCain, as they play out on a populist election stage, will be that Obama is against a war that McCain is for, and Obama offers health insurance, which McCain doesn’t. Pretty much what they would be in a Clinton vs. McCain race.
I guess he’s guilty on this front. Unless you want to get all nineteenth century, and we could talk about his white Ma…or twenty first and we could talk about his Hawaiian or Indonesian upbringing.
Come August, when the polling doesn’t shift, you can just tell us he’s gonna win anyway, and it will be there in black and white.
Pancho -
1. Lets see where the popular vote is on 3 June. Dare say he will be behind on the count Florida only score and possibly even the leave Florida out score when you take Puerto Rico into account. After all why should Puerto Rico not count if Idaho counts.
2. 2-1 on the j.wish vote is weak. Lets see where it is when they go to town on him.
3. The Clintons have given him a polish compared to what he will cop. There are some things they cannot do in a dem primary which the republican 527’s will have no qualms about.
4. Yes the books, no ideology there except “hope TM”, yet to see – agree with ronnie on this one.
5. yes virginia there is a bradley effect.
304
Sounds like a McCain victory prediction to me Eddy.
Cmon, out with it.
I’m game. My tip is 300+ electoral college votes for Obama.
HarryH,
Hardluck HarryH the tipster of no renown.
Weren’t the democrats thinking of asking McCain to run as VP in 2004? Obviously has appeal to dem voters, including those who may not like a black president.
Hillary was too honest in voicing her reason for staying in the race, but it is realism, the closer Obama gets to the nominee and potentially POTUS the more likely some redneck will blat him.
300 William
I’m sure there are plenty of bludgers who will be happy to make the suggestion to the combatants to “take it outside to the chat room” if things degenerate into meaningless personal abuse. Of course, if the meaningless personal abuse is directed at Hillary, well that’s another matter.
Rod,
But imagine the almighty myth of BHO that would arise!
A black Kennedy?
Diogenes,
Do you have a mother problem?
Rod, McCain was in discussion with Kerry to be his running mate. There is disagreement about who made the initial overtures, but not that the discussions happened. In my opinion, you are right that this will be an issue, but wrong in thinking it is positive for McCain. This will be wheeled out as the centrepiece of McCain’s flip-flopping records, and it will mightily p1ss off the base that needs as just a starting point.
GG, maybe Diog is suffering the old classic john Lennon syndrome.
Mother, you had me but I never had you,
I wanted you but you didn’t want me,
So I got to tell you,
Goodbye, goodbye.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=85rPsIEHkyU
305
Intrade markets currently predict:
Democrats: 282
Republicans: 234
Undecided: 22
Virginia (13), Nevada (5) and New Hampshire (4) are leaning Republican.
Makes those $2.85 odds for McCain look really juicy atm for anyone that bets.
There’s was movement at the station called electoral-vote.com, on the 24th May Obama took the lead:
Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
And Rassmussen has had Dems ahead on EV’s too:
On Friday, Democrats continue to lead in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. States with 111 Votes are “leaners,” and states with 38 Votes are Toss-Ups.
When “leaners” are added, the Democrats lead 260 to 240 (see summary of recent state-by-state results).
Those numbers have remained stable for a long time while the political nation has focused on the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. However, significant shifts are likely in the near future, partly due to an increased focus on the general election and partly due to adjustments currently being made by Rasmussen Reports.
…Rassmussen then goes on to explain how they will be dropping Clinton from their polls.
(Shhhhh, nobody tell Ron! LOL)
Funny, but I don’t recall getting an urgent update reminder from the avid followers of e-v.com that Obama was now ahead of McCain.
Oh, that’s right, of course, because Hillary is going to be the nominee! Of course she is! LOL
314
GWV, that means the punters are more bullish on the Dems than at least one pollster. It sounds like the individual state polls are going to get to some makeovers soon so they may start to follow the market soon.
KR,
Please don’t apologise.
92
The Finnigans Says:
May 26th, 2008 at 10:54 pm
Ronnie & Poss, i will leave the two of you to slug it out on poll vs intrade. but i simply find this amazing, it does not matter how you like to spin it. it has been like this for the last couple of months.
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Clinton 319 McCain 202 Ties 17
May 26 – Electoral Votes: Obama 266 McCain 248 Ties 24
KR
#301
Ron :“You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman “You are not prepared to fiercely condemn Mumble ‘he’ll lose because he’s black’ and Simon Jackman (using racial resentment). Why , perhaps because they are publicly known and links on Williams blog , even though essentially Mumble says Obama will lose because he is black & Jackman says that white voters vote against Obama due to racial resentment because he is black.”
K/R says “I called it a mumble”
Ron: k/r , you are not short of many paragraphs against Hillary or this affiable bloger. I thought yous all were lame. Obama made the same mistake at Philly
Diogenes@308 -
therEed only be 3 people left on the PB site- and one of them is William.
Besides I tried, and it was unintelligible. (Bit like most of what’s been going on here if I think about it.)
GG, i might also add:
Electoral Votes, total 538, To win: 270.
Gruffy:
Except that he was wrong. Obama trailed McCain until May 24th on e-v.com!
So he couldn’t even get a simple fact right, it had NOT been like that for months.
So no, I won’t bother to apologize if you insist I shouldn’t! LOL
KR,
Slippery is you!
Just say you are wrong, we all move on.
Cheers.
GG and Finns
I don’t really think of Hillary as being human, let alone a mother-figure. I see her more as the undead than a real person, a bit like a zombie. Did you know zombies are real?? I’m not making this up!! It’s a medical fact.
Ron, I’d never call you an “affiable bloger” even if I knew what it was! LOL
And what ‘mistake’ was that which you claim Obama made in Philadelphia? Did Obama also fail to “fiercely condemn” Peter Brent?
Quick, shoot him (ooh, sorry bad choice of words!) an email, he may have just forgotten!
Diogenes,
I’ll take that as a yes.
Gruffy, YOU TOLD ME NOT TO APOLOGIZE!
Dear me, Guffster, you aren’t half confusing.
But like I said, Finnster did in fact fail to state the facts. You don’t want me to overlook the facts do you?
Or, maybe, you do! Yes, like Hillary has lost this primary race, yes, lets overlook that fact, shall we, and argue about something else.
Oh yes, lets! LOL
The problem with Obama is not exactly just black and white:
1. As we all know, he is half black and half white. Something that he widely advertised. In the beginning, His halfness made him very acceptable to the Liberal whites and easier to package him. So the ebony/ivory combination works for him here.
2. But that ran into trouble with the “real” black community and he was accused of not being “black enough”. Thank God for Oprah and that fixed the problem, hence the 90%+. Oh, Michelle has been a great asset here as well.
3. Now, how do we “leverage” his white side, as any marketing guru will tell you. How do we get the “deer-hunter” whites into the call to action. Unfortunately for Obama, he was torpedoed before he got started by his Pastor and then by his own Bittergate. So now he is marooned from the deer hunter whites. he is culturally isolated from them. To them, he is a real black, not black/white.
while the deer hunters were singing:
“bye-bye, miss american pie.”
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinkin’ whiskey and rye
And singin’, “this’ll be the day that I die.
“this’ll be the day that I die.”
And Obama can only lament that:
I met a girl who sang the blues
And I asked her for some happy news,
But she just smiled and turned away.
I went down to the sacred store
Where I’d heard the music years before,
But the man there said the music wouldn’t play.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=eNdEu9s5qUU
325
Diogenes
More a cross between Nurse Ratchet and the Alien Mother, wouldn’t you say?
Finns- sad.
Don McLean is a yesterday as your girl.
And don’t you-tube the Beatles – I get it.
diogenes- tell me the real story about zombies!!!
Finn -Regarding Obama not being “black enough”. Oprah didn’t fix it – Bubba did.
Oh dear, now it’s the man from lowly river:
May 05 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 263 Ties 11
Apr. 25 – Electoral Votes: Obama 264 McCain 259 Ties 15
Apr. 19 – Electoral Votes: Obama 260 McCain 254 Ties 24
Saya sudah bilong, kamu orang bodoh sekali (in a lingo that the kid can speak)
KR,
Your significant other will tell you that it is how you don’t apologise that tells her whether you are fair dinkum with your apology.
As you well know, facts are an essential but unimportant component of any debate.
Cheers
Here’s the intrade chart for bets on the Republicans winning the Presidency:
http://data.intrade.com/graphing/temp/chart1206448122923267314.png
…clear trend, with a spasm of excitement when McCain won the nomination, but not enough to get much above 40%.
It’s not pretty. If it was a stock chart you’d be bailing out before the administrators arrived.
Thanks Gruffy, I’ll write that down somewhere, it may be useful..or,maybe not.
Growler- that would be like the apology Hillary made to the Kennedy’s (ooops-forgot to mention Obama).
OK, so I checked out WB latest IRC thingy… well, I reckon its a mess but if you havn’t looked yet heres a sample of the fare…
My own contribution is a good average of what you”l get (i’m being modest here for once)
CLASSIFIED SAYS—-based on readies from the last few week. I think that Kirrabilly Removals(from here on in known as KB) will continue to post many things. Greeensbrough Growler will taunt him and Cat will respond favouribly to KR. DIO will make sense alot of the time and be cool with cool doobies about medical knowledge. Ron will post amazing shitloads of stuff(which no-body) ever reads but he hangs onto the fact that he typed it so, surly SOMEBODY did even if they dont admit it… WB will lose more hair. Obama will get the nom.. might get killed but might get to be prez too…
Jen,
You obviously read all that stuff with Catrina. She is just a good fiend!
Classified – do I take that as “don’t bother – it’s the same as here”?
In which case I won’t try to work out how to get onto the F#$^@#g thing.
Growler – Catrina is a Fiend?? That’s a bit harsh.
and -i don’t what you’re talking about, but I’m getting used to that.
jen, obviously the horsey is still a turn-on. how sad
Someone asked about odds on Sebelius for VP
Intrade has her pretty long, over 10/1, and Zinni fractionally ahead.
It’s Webb then Clinton as the shortest, but both on 5/1 or better.
There’s no really short priced favourite as yet.
I wonder if Novak was just putting landmines down for the Republican retreat, or does he know something about her chances?
GG at 340
I denounce and reject this endorsement.
I girl’s got to protect her reputation you know!
329 Finns
What a sad post.
One can only suggest that your mindset is as old as your tap dancing looked.
It’s very weird, it *might* be funny… but well erm
I pretty sure *you lot* arn’t going to like it… (then again, elitist manic snobs that you are)
May by you’ll like the attention? *jks*
catrina,
I did say you are good.
Finns- how so?
both my feet are planted on the floor- unlike your good lady-friend who appears to habitually have her’s stuck in her oesophagus.
A blasting from Eugene Robinson:
“If this campaign goes on much longer, what will be left of Hillary Clinton?
A woman uniformly described by her close friends as genuine, principled and sane has been reduced to citing the timing of Robert F. Kennedy’s assassination as a reason to stay in the race — an argument that is ungenuine, unprincipled and insane. She vows to keep pushing, perhaps all the way to the convention in August. What manner of disintegration is yet to come?”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/26/AR2008052601743.html?hpid%3Dopinionsbox1&sub=AR
Pancho
‘She vows to keep pushing,’
forceps required to drag this thing out, and stop the agony.
Brutal, but necessary for the survival of all.
Pancho,
18 million votes in support. Sort of transcends all the rhetoric and commentary.
What I do find very amusing is this… KB, Jen,GG, DIO Cat etc
and how can we forget(even if we tried) Ron…
You guys are the Pollbludger version of Big Brother!
KB=KR=Kirrabilly removals
but I’m sure you knew that
Oh dear, Huffy has gone soft on Hillary.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jill-iscol/how-dare-you_b_103608.html
That biased rag printing yet another opinion piece you like Finns? The regularity is becoming alarming.
Classified – i have never turkey-slapped anyone in my life!
And are you Gretyl?
Jen,
Surely William is Gretel?
Finns-
here’s one who isn’t with her. Disappointed I’m afraid. And there are lots like me.
#256 – Amigo, i think Huffy is warming to Hillary especially Lady Huff herself. dont you think so?
Dio @ 308,
Good idea.
Anything to avoid some of the more pointless exchanges between KR and the Clintonistas being inflicted on us.
ooops- is it GretEl?
never watched it in my like IMConfess.
And Wililiam is God. he giveth and taketh as he sees fit.
jen, [And there are lots like me.] – we know, we know. dont go boasting
351
Jen
If you remember the movie Jen, there’s no need for forceps with Aliens, they self-deliver! LOL
Jen,
I don’t watch it either. But that is how the name is normally spelt.
I must say Classified has come up with a great insight there.
Obama firming on Betfair a little, and McCain easing a bit. Hillary still roughly $20.
Dunno Finns, while the editorial slant has definately been pro-Obama, I’ve never really seen it as unethical or unfair. I agree that the Lady of the Manor seems to have taken her foot off the throttle a bit as the race has wound down a little though.
I’ve just whacked up the three basic measures of Intrade data I’m going to be following through to the election here:
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/intrade-data/
I’ll update them every Tuesday – and fear not, there be no rogue Mississippi’s in this one!
Nothing looks more pathetic than a sore loser. As older white women are clearley the largest voting bloc in the democratic party (and probably the country) sexism is clearly the reason a REAL minority candidate won. open sexism was clearly a part of Obma’s campaign. Huh?. Am i the only one who saw the interviews of the good people of west Virginia. I havnt herd anyone one say im not voting for the “OTHER” sex as ive heard of the other race. John stewarts changing of West Virginia’s state motto to “No interviews please” did make me laugh.
Hillary Quite while you are um well behind….
Scotty,
You idiot,
You’ve poste your CV.
Dyno- here’s the dilemma. I find myself thinking it’s time to withdraw from PB, as we all descend further into the mire, and with a tad too much wine I find myself dragging the bottom with the best of them . However there ar still moments where I learn interesting stuff, and at times am mightily amused, so i am loathe to cut the tie.
And I am pretty sure that the dynamic here reflects what we are observing within the Primaries – some try to rise above, some shoot the bullets and some just depart – and all are frustrated at how drawn out it is.
So I find myself staying to see what’s next, and then wondering why I bother again…
Pancho #303 and ESJ #304
The fairyland are Obamabots who want to vote rort and exclude FL & MI. I ave
detailed the base of a likely Supreme Court success in #642 which is where it should go rather than the 2 State Offices getting intimidated on 31/5/08 to compromise in favor of Obama’s illegitimate claims/unity. Challenge my case
Popular vote: including MI & FL & including all FL votes and for MI including a fair vote allocation to both Hillary , Obama & Edwards & the other 3 candidates makes Hillary judsst in front on the popular vote , but its close enough to a statisticall tie. This option is the only democratic option to use.
Caucus’s: exclude all caucus’s ? There were 4 , none democratically run , no vote tallys , none where there is ANY record whatsoever of total votes cast at each of hundreds of Halls/Schools spread accross 4 States or even if they did ‘vote’ legally (as opposed to allocting delegate numbers) or how many votes each candidate got at all at ANY of the hundreds of Scout Halls/Schools where ‘meetings’ took place. No country in the world , not even Mugabe would try to include guestimates provided by hundreds of different unknown people located in hundreds of Halls/Schools accross 4 States of totals of ‘votes’ that may not even been cast , let alone a guestimate of how many votes were cast for all the 6 candidates per Hall/School. Votes can only count if properly recorded tallied & scruntineered. But after yous guys undemocratic approach to MI & FL , anything is possible
Jewish vote: what Pancho didn’t say is Hillary has about a 5% better J.e.wish vote rate than Obama ! (another better electability demographic for Hillary that I’ve mentioned before. Also the Poll is National, useless. Take FL , Obama loses & Hillary wins off the Repugs By the way ESJ , she wins OH easily and just these 2 States guarantee Hillary being POTUS. Commonsense not a commodity
Weatherboardmen & Ayers: Hillary couldn’t attack a fellow Democrat like the Repugs will be able to so. Why haven’t you brought up this Ayers guys history here Pancho ???
Just because I’m a barbarian you think I don’t know Ayers was on the FBI top 10 most wanted for a decade , launched Obama’s career etc. Why did you sit silently & allow k/r to deceive blogers that Ayers was a ‘good’ terrorist & to quote k/r ‘he always gave everyone notice before he let off the bombs’
Books ? Why Pancho haven’t you brought up here some of Obama’s quotes in his books that you say you’ve read re his feelings for ‘whites’ My barbarian libary got a copy , on loan of course. You & others here must be a selective readers.
Policys ? now yous wantto talk policys , for 3 months you guys didn’t. Healthcare ,Hillary (close to Labor) Obama (a Howard policy). Guns oh the NRA aan Obama financial supporter by the way , 2 bills Obama voted no , one re ban of semi autos & the othr to tighten up rules on gun manufacturers (do yous really know your FL candidate) , Patriot Act (Obama a yes vote) , Drivers licences for illegal immigrants (Obama yes , by the way McCain yes & by the way Hillary No), Kyoto (Obama will not ratify & you despite FINNS efforts can not say why , the fact s Obama’s stated policy dos not say he will ratify Kyoto , simple words Kevin07 had no trouble= Obama does NOT intend to) , economic policy & yous are ‘left’ and you are backing a ’sort of’ “we”‘ liberal , peacock style, right wing economic policy which will please ESJ my friend but yous cann’t even stick to principles although ESJ I used ’sort of’ because I’m still waiting to find out whos the Mentor for this model & which countries practice this ‘model’ I’ve raised about 30 points here , let me tick off how many get a rsponse
I think Pancho you know alot this history of Obama’s Ayers , books etc but maybe not all & alot of your colleagues don’t. Yous guys attitude to FL & MI is astonishing , but what I find most unbelievable from ‘left; people is yous going through aqll the above policy areas & saying ok or no but Hillary is too bad , I’ve always said most Obamabots idealoligy ‘progressive based’ are soft sybolism/politically correct & extremist overboard libertarians, anti war & US who regard the above practical policys as not as important. My priorities are the reverse and so are the Public when they vote centre labor or right centre liberal if labour is too left
Jen @ 371,
Quite. The continual slagging by certain parties is a turn-off though, and may yet cure me of my PB addiction.
But it’s a great site, don’t get me wrong!
Thanks for the graphs, Possum. They are worth many volumes of mere opinion and make me feel quite chirpy, really.
GG at 254
Of course, a winner will emerge. But despite the incessant rhetoric to the contrary, who that is has not been decided.
It’s become very tiresome around here, so I wont bother posting to you or any other Hillary supporters again. Just one final question, do you SERIOUSLY believe that now, given Hillary will need over 80% over the remaining delegates that the race has not been decided? Just because she wont withdraw, it doesnt make the race undecided…
Andrew,
Do you find yourself tiresome and boring?
eek, I just got back from washing the dishes (yeah, I know, I’m that guy)
I re-read my post and realised something… B-brother(I saw it once, 4yrs ago) is a horrible pit of something I don’t know what but…
I didn’t mean you guys were akin to the contestants etc in personality
I meant that you were posting in a fishbowl… lots of ppl watching/reading and judging
Some running bets
Apo0logies if that wasn’t clear
Now… back to the Ron,/i> wars
Top work Possum. A step ahead again.
Speaking against racism, ron, you should have a look at this. Obama is doing his bit for hispanic rights in America. Nice one, imo. He has the mojo. The right soon won’t know which is up!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/23/obama-rush-limbaugh-lou-d_n_103315.html
332 Jen
I’ll be brief about zombies. Simplistically, it’s a combination of being poisoned with puffer fish, a brief burial, a shot of datura (angel’s trumpet) to wake you up but totally dissociate you and then a “pointing the bone” ceremony. Basically, you get low oxygen brain damage and a trip from hell in the setting of a profound belief in zombification. There are several other causes. The famous book discovering this is The Serpent and the Rainbow by Wade Davis. There’s more at:
Dead Man Walking
http://www.biology-online.org/articles/dead_man_walking.html
Classified-
fair call – i think we are like the contestants.
I want to be the one who leaves with dignity in tact (has there ever been one?) . or else, i want to be the winner and get a million bucks.
GG, of all the Hillary supporters, you have been the most willing to engage in sensible debate and the most rational. Stop spoiling your record. Stop the insults and just answer the question. Bye for now
Classified
FINNS I’ve got another Parrot a poster called ‘classified’ and I don’t even have to make a pet name , ‘classified’ is fine
Diogenes-
thanks.
sounds like what half the kids in this town are doing.( and perhaps one or two here). explains a lot actually.
I did actually once drink angel’s-trumpet tea in my youth. Wouldn’t recommend it..
Andrew,
Your first sentence answers the rest.
Cheers
Ronnie, your gain is my lost. i notice my parrot has just left the building
Who did the what now?
Jen, dignity nearly always comes with tact…:)
In truth, your dignity is in fine shape – no food fights, no eye-gouging or biting, nor goading, lying, harping, sniping or bullying. The red wine stains on your shirt will wash out and everything will get better again.
Blindoptimist
#380
All of your posts to me are barbs. What was in this one , you suggesting Limburgh is my political ally ? The problem with Obama attacking Limbugh is not the substance of Obama’s words , they’re fine but that Hillary or Edwards are just as likely yesterday or tomorrow to do the same thing against this Steve Price man , its all political but I’m all for the words spokn.
k/r you ask what did Obama do wrong at Philly , not criticise Mumble.
Ron: . But yous do not understand If you were a black man sufferinfg prejudice for a lifetime , you’d expect Obama to take a historic step. Instead he sold out his race to save his political hide
blindoptimist- thank you.
do I get the million bucks?
…I think I’ve had enough turkey slaps!
Ron,
Just hosekeepign. But no evidence that anything good happens out of Richmond/Essendon. Polls prove Dreamtime is Obamaphiles.
The Finnigans Says: #387
“Ronnie, your gain is my lost. i notice my parrot has just left the building”
FINNS , you can have oe of mine , your choice :
CellsWitheld , BoysLesswit , GibberSh.t , CodgY , classified , or our shared Parrot (name with many words as he uses so many himself)
“don’t forget me , I’m Mr Attention seeker”
“Ron: . But yous do not understand If you were a black man sufferinfg prejudice for a lifetime , you’d expect Obama to take a historic step. Instead he sold out his race to save his political hide”
And that’s why 90% of black Americans are throwing him their votes! LOL
Ron, is it possible, just for once, to actually look at the complete twaddle you write and have a good laugh at yourself.
Join us!
Ronnie, how can i not take MR-FORGET-ME-NOT
http://www.hendrikwill.com/blog/images/20060528201950_forget-me-not.jpg
Classified
#339
Classified #339 “Ron will post amazing shitloads of stuff(which no-body) ever reads but he hangs onto the fact that he typed it so, surly SOMEBODY did even if they dont admit it…”
So don’t try to play innocent here. you threw the first stone , but your problem is far more professional Obamabots then you have delivered far smarter shots than you are capable of and i’m still here defiant , and how would you feel if Obama made a massive ‘gaffe’ right now & Hillary becomes Nominee well I would be genuinely consoling you
You are better off with me as a Parrot , FINNS is a harder trainer, him being a senior Amigo
The Finnigans #96
“Ronnie, how can i not take MR-FORGET-ME-NOT’
Transfer now done FINNS , he doesn’t know how fortunate he is to have your wisdom used
#367, Hi Amigo, Lady Huff again
WTF is going on here. Like i said, Obama needs Hillary more than Hillary needs Obama, as per Lady Huff.
Would you Obamabots now denounce Lady Huff. She’s a traitor.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/unmasking-mccain-his-reac_b_103580.html
Ron,
Magnificent poetry.
“So don’t try to play innocent here. you threw the first stone , but your problem is far more professional Obamabots then you have delivered far smarter shots than you are capable of and i’m still here defiant
You are the man.
Rasmussen 2 new polls – Hilary +2 on McCain, Obama even with McCain. More signs of insanity in the Democratic party – they are about to launch their own November Turkey.
Yes well said Ron. Stick it to the snobs.
Pancho #379
Top work Possum. A step ahead again.
You didn’t mention the new barbarian “market prediction” alternative to Possums
You guys do like diverse views of course. Obviously ESJ and the 2 Amigos will enjoy my #372 to store for return fire as Obama suporters have a problem when faced with actual policys to defend. Jen , your man will not ratify Kyoto , bad
Just a reminder to the johnny-come-lately Obamabots.
the three amigos – moi, GG, Ron: We ride, We fight (the Obamabots) and We love
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=xZ3KVYt8__A
Yes Bravo to the 3 Amigos for fighting the good fight and for your good humour.
Not at all Finns. She knows she’s a player, both influencial and widely read. Her column actually acknowledges that there needs to be some reconcilliation, and she is obviously playing her part. She knows it is over and is trying not to inflame petty infighting, but rather focus Democratic attention on the real contest. This line
is her calling it over and noting that she (and people like her) need to reach out, in my opinion. So no, I wouldn’t denounce her.
And how will the BHO people reach out Pancho? By offering the veepship?
k/r
“And that’s why 90% of black Americans are throwing him their votes”
you don’t get it k/r , of course they are , the blacks are a downtrodden discriminated against for hundreds of years minority group who like if there was a hispanic candidate stick with their own (unless the alternative is amazing policys) it happens all over the world but that doesn’t mean there is disappointment with his Philly failure which will grow in future years
Sorry WB, I am quoting the full article from Crikey here, as subs is required. The killer quote: “Why? Because if she were the candidate, most likely none of this outflanking nonsense would be needed”. Like i said too many times now, Obama is destroying the Dems Mandate from Heaven to govern.
US08: Obama may struggle against McCain
Tuesday, 27 May 2008
US correspondent Guy Rundle writes:
It’s Memorial Day here, a holiday that began as a commemoration of the Civil War Union dead — and thus of the subjugation of one part of the country by another — and became a memory of American dead in foreign wars.
In Texas, there’s military parades. In Nebraska, relatives visit and clean the graves of the fallen. And in Portland, folks have a late mushroom n asiago omelette brunch in the Pearl District, browse Powell’s for new anime and then take in a movie at the Living Room, preferably black and white, preferably Brazilian. Semper fi, o cap’n my cap’n.
Six more weeks here and I will no longer be able to understand myself.
God knows what the country will look like next year when once again one part of the country has subjugated the other, but even with a Democratic grand slam the place will still be embroiled in foreign wars. The question is whether the US will be led by someone who’s trying to back out of them, who defines them as exactly the wrong relationship the country should have to the world — or by a man who, despite subsequent backpedalling, is easy with the idea of being in ever more exotic locales for a hundred years.
Currently, the polls would suggest the latter scenario, with McSame leading Obama by around four points across the board — more than enough to grab a few more states than Bush took from Kerry or Gore. But we’re a long way out and a lot can and will happen. However one thing is certain — if Obama is to win this, the election will have to be rendered qualitatively different by his candidacy and campaign than any before.
If Indecision ‘08 merely runs in the grooves of red state-blue state culture wars that have gone before, then Obama may as well give up now. Of all the possible scenarios for an Obama victory, the least likely is the one that Democrats have been working on for the past three years, when Hillary was seen as a shoo-in. Consider from worst to best for Obama:
SCENARIO ONE: The current state of play is that the Democrats hold New England, the north bit of the industrial Northeast, and the Pacific coast. The GOP holds the South, the Southwest, the Midwest, the Great Plains, and the northeast remnant — Indiana and Ohio. Bush got 286 electoral college votes, Kerry 251. The assumption has always been that the Democrats must win either Ohio (20 votes) or Florida (27) in order to regain the White House. Given the current polling of Obama among certain sectors, that is looking unlikely. Indeed one possible result is that Obama not only fails to gain either state, but loses back to McCain New Hampshire (4), the most ornery of the New England states, and maybe even Michigan (10), for a true debacle, and an entrenchment of “McCain Democrats”.
SCENARIO TWO: Would have Obama losing these states, but gaining GOP states that the silvertailed Kerry couldn’t get — New Mexico (5), Iowa (7) maybe even Colorado (9), to do slightly better than Kerry, without actually winning.
SCENARIO THREE: Has Obama holding all the states Kerry took, taking neither Florida nor Ohio, but taking some of New Mexico, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada (5), and maybe even South Carolina (8) in such a way as to give him the 18 votes he needs for a narrow victory.
SCENARIO FOUR: Assumes that much of the “won’t vote Obama” thing is pique, that can be magicked away both by Obama going head to head with McCain and by a remorseless worsening of everything the latter is in favour of. In this scenario, Obama gains one or both of Florida, and a couple from the New Mexico etc list, to take the Democrat vote above 300, and lay the basis for a reconstruction of the electoral map.
SCENARIO FIVE: Is the grand slam. Obama takes everything below the GOP waterline, leaving the Republicans with redoubt states like Texas and Idaho. With the Democrats also gaining a 50-60 seat majority in Congress, the conditions are set for a decade or more of Democrat power, and the chance to appoint several Supreme Court justices, effectively setting the terms of American political culture for the next three or four decades.
So you can see why things are a little fraught on the Democrat side, but also why Obama supporters are more confident than the terrifying stories of white working class desertion would have one believe.
Two factors are key here — one is the winner take all nature of a state-based selection process. Take the state by one or one million votes, it don’t matter (except for Nebraska and Maine, sh-ttily enough), the electoral college votes are yours. New Mexico went to Bush by six thousand votes last time, and a few other states are so close to the waterline that it is generally assumed that sheer Bushatred will carry them for the Dems.
Second is the small state weighting — electoral college votes are arrived at by adding congressional districts to Senate seats. Since every state has two senators, that means small states punch above their weight. Ohio has 18 districts and New Mexico has three. The latter is one-sixth the size but gets one quarter of the electoral college votes (20 against 5). To get 20 electoral college votes from three close smaller states — New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, say — means convincing less people than one close big state.
Usually, that’s a goose-gander sauce thang. This year it may be different, because so many of these states may be composed of the sort of people — Hispanic Americans, mixed culture, outlaws in general — most likely to have some sort of general identification with Obama. Effectively, his status as the first post-modern candidate may be enough to outflank the rustbelt-sunbelt states that it’s hitherto been assumed the Democrats have to win.
Risky strategy? You bet. But the Democrats ain’t got much else. Which means that… Hillary’s still in the race. Why? Because if she were the candidate, most likely none of this outflanking nonsense would be needed — after all she’s not the one getting endorsed by frikkin Castro (de facto). The Dems would take not only Ohio, but quite possibly regain a chunk of the South — Kentucky, Mississippi etc — plus the Southwest, to put together an electoral college vote not seen since, well, since the last time a Clinton ran.
Who’s to say that won’t become so obvious, so compelling in the lead-up to the convention that there won’t be a sudden superdelegate crossback? Who’s to say it’s not possible that they won’t feel it not merely their prerogative but their duty to history.
For the party, for the country, for the Union dead?
and We love
best part FINNS
ESJ,
I wouldn’t think directly to her – I have said before that I think this will give Republicans strategists a field day, being able to regurgitate her Primary attack lines (C-i-C threshold etc) – but possibly to a Hillary loyalist. And other than that, by playing it as Obama has, ie. focussing on McCain, praising Hillary where possible, and not getting into slanging matches. And I reckon they’ll go more than halfway with regards to FL and MI.
“The only way John McCain can win is if his reactionary views on choice and women’s health issues remain obscured by his faux maverick reputation and the blinding disappointment of Clinton die-hards. There is too much at stake to let that happen.”
liked that Huff Post. Unfortunately this pro Obama female Owner who has put so much bile on the female Hillary NOW wants to protecther female legacy by being able to quote some VERY BELATED pro hillary posts. Madam , i hope the females see through your self interest in your future reputation , now tarnished
Ron,
Agree, TheHuff Post among others have been attack dogs on Hilary.
Hope they are pleased with the outcome.
Jen….the mill?… well they say virtue is its own reward….but i’ve never subscribed to that entirely…..yeah….a mill….you’ve earned it….i pass round the hat….it’s a big hat, good quality south australian felt, very classy…..should be no prob…..:)
The end of Francis Fukuyama on Lateline now, as Tony Jones got stuck into him. A neocon who is not a neocon now.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Fukuyama
Edward StJohn #402
“Yes well said Ron. Stick it to the snobs.”
Mate I’m happy to debate with you we share some different philosophies & some the same & we can argue & throw some playful jests , but this lot are FL elitist smugy symbolism driven ‘progressively based’ politically correct soapy anti Amerian rose pots who reagard regarding equity & opportunity & social assistance as not as important but who want to pay for their ideas with a non capitalist system that does not exxist and they still do not realise the economic model of Obama’s is soft right wing but with leafy tyres that economically won’t achieve their ideals
Pancho “So no, I wouldn’t denounce her.”
whats been the last 3 months of your venom against her …not denouncing her ?
Ron and ESJ: Are you two sincere Hillary supporters?
Track back Ron. That is in reference to Finns’ question about denouncing Arianna Huffington.
FINNS
#409
glad you posted the lot
and your comment “Who’s to say that won’t become so obvious, so compelling in the lead-up to the convention that there won’t be a sudden superdelegate crossback?”
Absolutely amigo !!! , we can win this if the SD’s have any political nous and will have the courage to stand up to the Team Obama (per mayor koch & Dr Adam)
of intimidation that if Obama doen;’t get the nomination EVEN IF he loses the the blacks will desert the Party forever , obama Chicago , where did Al Capone come from
Track back Ron. Pancho fair enough the Huff lady , there are so many ladys involved but my earlier post is relevant
” Unfortunately this pro Obama female Owner who has put so much bile on the female Hillary NOW wants to protecther female legacy by being able to quote some VERY BELATED pro hillary posts”. Huff lady bow in self interst mode , you surely cnn’t equate her previous remarks with the above quote or earlier in the week of ’something like hillary has been a fighter & trail blazer , you believe its not self interest ?
As someone who has been unimpressed with the way that Hillary has run her campaign, I can unequivocably say that she has quite obviously been a fighter and a trailblazer. These qualities are beyond question, and the Hillary campaign will likely be seen in this light after a bit of a cooling off period.
Whatever you think about her personal motives (we’ll need to agree to disagree here) for Huffington to be making positive remarks about Hillary is in the interest of the Democratic Party. That is where I see her motive.
Possum Comitatus at 368
It goes without saying – Possum rocks!
GG
I’ve already got one black star with you from last week mate & and you mention the dreamtime , i was actually there with black kids in the middl of the ground with the Michael Long’s etc and I was expecting an Obamabot to say (again) you racist ron you weren’t there and i was going to bert a grand at them 9for William) as i can prove it , the worst thing was not the lost chance to get a grand from the obamabots but that William in gratitude may have nade me his honorary ‘alternative moderator ‘ . a role the barbarian would look forward to with glee and as with footy teams & your proudly paid up ‘blues’ one black star is enough without my mighty footy team so passionate that all games are taped except the lossing ones , erased ,so cann’t add to list although ‘blues’ fans do love us sort of
“for Huffington to be making positive remarks about Hillary is in the interest of the Democratic Party. That is where I see her motive.’
not having a go at you but thought you’d say that but couldn’t see that as a motive unless 1/ the huff lady & you think the Huff paper cn influence Hillary dems voters to feel included 2/ that assume Hillary supportrs aren’t like me , she lost me as her bias & venom was over the top (you apparently don’t think this barbarian seeks out & reads some pro Obama stuff , some is obviously pro Obama-centric but neither over the top bias wise or personally….writers & papers I believe vary not only in their balance but also bias
The closer you get to your destination, it starts to slip sliding away
that brilliant post of Crikey you posted of adverse Obama election ecenario’s FINNS ?
or the fact the barbarian is setting up a competitve ‘market prediction’ where we can decide the imput
Aren’t your critics being nice to you the kiss of death? Frankly it appears to be sign that Clinton’s campaign is officially terminal.
ron, you’re evolving a new prose style i’m sure it will catch on with anyone who is only concerned with striking keys and getting the clutter out of their minds onto the screenware and instead of picking their teeth and rubbing their eyes (in disbelief) prefer to rearrange the language as a kind of therapy to treat the sound of history stealing past whistling like tinitis in the ears of a bellringer with an itchy arse and wondering whether we really have entered a library with no books which would be like a blog with no hotlinks and indeed nothing at all like dreaming of playing badminton at wimbledon in the rain and wondering if it is still possible to buy a ham cheese and absurdity sandwich on the way in before you sit down and invent something to put in the box called Name (required) when you could be doing socially useful things like collecting litter and naming it after prime ministers and their pets.
The Finnigans @ 415
Said he voted for obama lol.
B O
#429
you appear to be praisng my lingo prose , in centurys to come as kids read the new lingo they ‘ll mention B O was one of th forst converts , although your name will be but for mini secnd. Perhips you could look at #372 “policys” and se if you can splice mustard here intellectually , the chalenge is their for for all elitist gentrymen to dishonor themselves
429
blindoptimist
You done it!
You’ve mastered Ronsperanto, except you’re making sense.
Please go back and take out the poetic allusions, the winsome levity, and the exuberant wit, and turn it into unreadable sludge.
There’s a boy.
Goodness, Ron and the Ronnettes are speedy tonight?
What is this, the last spasms of Hillary? You guys have to get it all out before the candle’s snuffed and your desperate dream of Hillary nodding and pointing at the convention just crawls off and quietly expires?
There, there, it’s OK to grieve, just get it all out now, and you’ll feel better when it’s finally over.
We’re very close now, let yourselves go.
While getting the latest update on world affairs and the state of super delegates, I came across the following and could not help but reflect on the reality at PB.
From the DCW Open Thread
431, much as I like to tinker with words I can’t see the point in rummaging through the counterfeits in a vain hope of finding genuine guineas when afterall i’m but a petty word thief and do not qualify as an elite anything least of all as a gentrified typist and forsooth have no honour in your company either; as for down the centuries to come and the kids thereof i am sure this turgidity has no merit and is just a-drivelled squawk among the fine chirps of the altos and the tenors who sing in this polyglade.
KR, you are a timely editor and a chapter on your own! i will try to make less sense on future.
Just came across a lovely paragraph in an article questioning the US primary and general election processes.
Source: By BYLINE, The New Yorker.
It’s hard to ignore numbers like this:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year, Standard & Poor’s said Tuesday.
The 20-city Case-Shiller home price index fell 2.2% from February to March. This is the 16th consecutive decline in prices.
…and no end in sight.
November’s going to be very interesting, isn’t it?
I must be a sucker for punishment. I’ve been off marking the the scores of undergraduate esays that have been piling up like steaming turds dropped from dyslexic elephants. MY head is reeling, my soul is bruised, and yet I’m about to attempt to interpret Ron.
He said:
“but this lot are FL elitist smugy symbolism driven ‘progressively based’ politically correct soapy anti Amerian rose pots who reagard regarding equity & opportunity & social assistance as not as important but who want to pay for their ideas with a non capitalist system that does not exxist and they still do not realise the economic model of Obama’s is soft right wing but with leafy tyres that economically won’t achieve their ideals”
Ron, I regard “equity and opportunity & social assistance” as important. I suspect you’re alluding to the idea that Clinton is in some populist way more left-wing on social issues than Obama. I don’t think she is – unless you call pointless fuel holidays progressive or garnisheeing the wages of workers to pay for healthcare rather than taxing the rich a good idea. But, in any case, she’s a Clinton, runs on her “experience” in her husband’s administration, and her husband’s administration’s only significant “reform” in this area was an attack on welfare that makes Howard’s “mutual obligation” look woosy in the extreme.
If you want my honest opinion, I think that if the Democrats win this election there may be a “slight” improvement in the position of poor and working Americans but that, regardless of the candidate, any real change depends on a resurgence of organising at the base. In this case I prefer the community organiser to the woman who’s running as the wife of the biggest sleaziest do-nothing sellout merchant since Truman brought us Taft/Hartley.
Now it’s time to try and interpret your appellation “anti-American”. I love lots of Americans and a lot about their culture. I love Hollywood and popular music (with the obvious exceptions in both cases). But I hate empires. I don’t dislike the “American” in the American Empire just the “Empire” in it. You work it out Ron. And I prefer Obama to Clinton because he doesn’t threaten to “obliterate” countries on the off chance they are proven to have wanted to develop the capacity to threaten to do to one country what the US has had the capacity to do to the whole world for several decades.
You seem to think that this is an elitist, late sipping position. But I think not – at least not in Australia. More importantly, if you want to defend Vietnam and Iraq (the interventions not the countries) then do so, don’t assert that just because some of us prefer Obama because he opposed the war in Iraq that we are guilty of an addiction to elicit liberal food groups. There lies the slippery slope at the bottom of which Rupert squats with a checque book and a job with Fox. The Ron Report in the Syntax Free Zone. It has a ring.
437
Catrina Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:13 am
Just came across a lovely paragraph in an article questioning the US primary and general election processes…
…….
Very apt, Catrina. It seems all the Hillarity has made a joke of the arithmetic.
BO #440 1 + 1 + ME
Sorry, 1 + 1 = ME
437
Catrina
For many,reminding us of Bill’s ‘flexibility’ with the truth, is another reason not to want to see Hillary in the Whitehouse.
God, after 8 years of the Idiot Decider and his grubby little regime of propagandists and spin meisters, lying their way to war and assaulting the basic legal decencies of the Geneva Convention, Hillary’s the perfect reminder of what they already have.
Enough already!
438
Kirribilli Removals Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:18 am….it’s hard to ignore numbers like this:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year…
And when the weakness of the USD is factored in, the decline in values in the US is really numbing. Your dire predictions could yet come to pass, KR. The outlook is very confused….inflation is back, but growth in the Atlantic economies is feeble, the US fiscal position is deplorable and the banking system is still frail….nothing but trouble….
11 Superdelegates to Obama, 0 to Clinton over the Memorial weekend.
49 left to go.
It will probably be official on Saturday after Puerto Rico. If not, after SD and Montana on Tuesday. MI and FL will be resolved on Saturday as well.
So we have 7 more days, tops, until The Amigos REALLY start embarrassing themselves by resorting to cheerleading McCain in order to sate their fear of Barry Hussein Obama.
439
Robert Bollard
Can I just add a resounding “here, here!”
Possum Comitatus:
After going though your new material I have a request (a.k.a. user requirement). While the graphs give us an indication of the general trend and probably Democrat victory, what is missing is the degree of sensitivity of the the position. For example, if we were to assume a +-3% variation in the numbers, and if the Democrats are only just getting some of the states by the skin of their teeth, the number of electoral votes can jump about in a non-linear fashion. This brought me to the idea that the display of a band with an upper +3 and a lower -3 would provide a more in-depth picture in which we could get a sense of the potential volatility.
442
Robert Bollard Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:24 am
Sorry, 1 + 1 = ME
…
does this mean there are two of you, RB?
444
blindoptimist
Yep, it’s turning to sh!t in a bucket, as the North American peso goes down the toilet and the rest of world refuses to let them simply inflate their way out of debt.
As one economist likes saying: when something is unsustainable it eventually stops.
So you can’t keep expanding deficits forever and hoping that other countries will just keep lending you their savings.
I keep trying to imagine the mood come November, but it just looks so grey and miserable the only consolation is that Republicans will take a huge amount of the voter’s anger.
Possum, check out the Queensland redistributed thread for the latest gaffe by the local Pineapple party. Unbelievable.
“…. Republicans will take a huge amount of the voter’s anger.”
I’m reminded of some reports indicating that only some 30% or less of republican-identifying voters are happy with their choice of candidates. This is in a climate in which only 30-odd% of Americans are identifying as Republican.
KR, the thing that is really mind-boggling about the US economic situation is that it is all self-induced, predictable and preventable. In the same way as the mismanagement of economic and foreign policies in the 1960’s and early 70’s lead to the traumas of the late 70’s and 80’s, the combination of Republican congresses, the Bush White House and the Greenspan Fed have just about ruined America. They’ve certainly brought ruin to millions of low income families, to US government finances and the capital markets, not to mention the entire Iraqi people. Electoral justice awaits.
Tues May 27:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=ArCtOQCJhOBh2xA_PdCEJ31X_b4F
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080526_oh_say_can_you_siacute/
KR and BO at 444: “ Home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas have dropped a record 14.4% in the past year…”
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080526_the_price_of_house/
Don’t think the SDs liked Senator Clinton’s reference to Bobby’s whacking too much.
“To prepare for that eventuality, the Obama campaign has, for the first time, really, begun to bank delegates. Sources close to the campaign estimate that as many as three dozen Democratic superdelegates have privately pledged to announce their support for Obama on June 4 or 5. The campaign is determined that Obama not end the first week in June without securing the support of delegates numbering 2026 — or 2210, as the case may be.”
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_campaign_banks_superdele.php
EC at 454
I’m hearing similar chatter across a number of channels.
But Saturday’s meeting of the Rules and Bylaws Committee is so far away – it’s like a new form of torture. With a decision there, things become just a little more concrete and many thousands of spreadsheets across the planet will be updated. Days later the remaining primaries play their last hand, the writing on the wall will be written, and the everyone knows that the this party is done and the bigger party is kicking into action.
It’s the only sane course of action, Catrina. Time The Kid went mano a mano with the old war-monger. Let’s see the History happen.
It is great politcal drama in its own right, really, this primary season. The competing characters, the twists in the narrative, the moments of triumph and frustration, the whole personification of the quest for power, the creation of hope and, inevitably, the weight of loss too. It is great stuff.
The Forked Tongued Fund-Raising Express:
“Look, George (Mr. President, Sir), I know we hate each others guts and you’re radioactive to my election chances, but…it’s like this…. I need the money to run my campaign, and afterall, we are Republicans!”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=a62zxp30OASc
Yes, BO, we are but lorrikeets to its nectar, bees to its jelly. The best drama on the planet. Daylight second!
I can feel a Hollywood moment coming on.
Yes, Catrina. But I hope Tom Cruise is not in it. Meryl Streep, yes. Dolly PArton….for the singing…it wil be a musical in part, i hope…
Billy Connolly could play President Bill…..now that would be sublime as well as ridiculous
Sean Connery playing Ted Kennedy?
and Kevin Spacey playing Howard Dean.
H R Clinton?
http://www.imdb.com/media/rm123770880/nm0555617
Wyoming Democratic Party Vice Chair Nancy Drummond has endorsed Obama
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
just spotted that too – I can feel an update coming on
In the primaries that in Hillary’s words “didn’t count” until it became a spin opportunity …
9.4% of Floridians population turned out in their Democratic Primary.
6% of Michigan’s population turned out in their Democratic Primary.
Compared to lets say – West Virginia:
27% of its population turn out in their Democratic primary.
Something we can glean from these numbers is that the number of people in Florida and Michigan that turned up to vote is somewhere between a half to a quarter of the number of people who think that the sun revolves around planet Earth. More importantly – this theory that the DNC are disenfranchising millions of voters is clearly rubbish (particular in Florida where voting included legitimate polls on subjects unrelated to the primaries).
Only four more sleeps to the Rules and Bylaws Committee Meeting.
Superdelegate Update
As noted by coger at 466, Obama has received a another super delegate endorsement. This one is from Wyoming Democratic Party Vice Chair Nancy Drummond. Here endorsement follows:
This brings the raw pool of undeclared delegates down to 286 (86 pledged and 200 supers). Totals for each of the Democratic candidates now stand as follows:
DCW Count
Obama: 1977 needing another 48 to win (or 16.8% of the pool)
Clinton: 1779 needing another 246 to win (or 86% of the pool)
Projected Count
Throw in the Pelosi Factor and projections on the remaining primaries and we end up with the following numbers:
Obama: 2026 with one delegate to spare
Clinton: 1822 needing an additional 203 super delegates out of 200 in order to win (or 101.5% of the pool)
On the subject of Obama’s delegate bank – the articles are pointing to something like 3 dozen supers ready to endorse on June 3 or 4. I think it is important to note the significant of this number. Under the current rules Obama has already won the nomination after all he has secured more than the required 2025 delegates. However, if the worst-case scenario were to unfold and Florida and Michigan was seated as is with full voting rights (and Obama was awarded 0 in Michigan), then Obama would be behind by 38 delegates. Assuming that Obama picks up an additional two delegates over the next couple of days this means that Obama will have a sufficient number of delegates to claim the 2209 total.
In reality the end game will lie somewhere between these two extremes and Obama will be declared the presumptive nominee within a week.
John McCain addressing the subject of nuclear proliferation (26 min.)
It’s worth listening to.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22425001/vp/24841854#2484185
A NYT Op-Ed piece from Bob Herbert the sums up nicely question of campaign tone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/opinion/27herbert.html?ref=opinion
Obama needs another 48 delegates to get the nomination(not counting Michigan and Florida).
Please don’t beleive all the media hype. Obama can’t win the genral election. You better pray this nomination turns around our only hope is Hillary. She can make the chances we need because she is electable. The republicans really don’t want her to win. Have you noticed how negative the media is on her and how wonderfully the bumped up Obama from the beginning. Please something is wrong with this picture. If Obama gets it cause the public buys into there sceam, we all lose.
Oh dear, there was the flag pin, there was my Pastor uncle served as US Marine and now my Uncle liberated the Auschwitz to prove my wobbling patriotism. All in flame, shoot down. There goes the J votes. Next? My step father did serve in the Indonesian TNI, that would go down well. Have a good day to all.
Obama’s Staff Corrects WWII Story
By Jeff Zeleny
LAS VEGAS – The family tree of Senator Barack Obama has been the subject of much discussion – and inspection – since he arrived on the national political stage four years ago.
In response to a question at a Memorial Day appearance in New Mexico, Mr. Obama said an uncle helped liberate the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz during World War II. The problem? That story didn’t track with history, considering Auschwitz was liberated by Soviet forces.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/27/obamas-staff-corrects-wwii-story/
‘So on Tuesday, the campaign acknowledged the senator made a mistake and mentioned the wrong camp. It actually was Buchenwald, according to spokesman Bill Burton.
“Senator Obama’s family is proud of the service of his grandfather and uncles in World War II – especially the fact that his great uncle was a part of liberating one of the concentration camps at Buchenwald,” Mr. Burton said in a statement. “Yesterday he mistakenly referred to Auschwitz instead of Buchenwald in telling of his personal experience of a soldier in his family who served heroically.”
The correct story is that Mr. Obama’s great uncle, Charlie Payne – his grandmother’s brother – actually helped liberate Ohrdruf, a sub-camp of Buchenwald. Mr. Payne was a member of the 89th Infantry Division.’
Shut the gate on the way out Finns, thanks.
Ecky- good carton with the house strapped on the 4X4, but maybe not too far from reality. Some people will have to decide between feeding the beast or paying the mortgage on a steeply devaluing asset.
Jesus it must be terrifying being caught in the maw of that. (If the average decline is 14.4%, imagine what the extreme declines are!).
Someone calculated the total decline in US housing value over this cycle and it came to trillions. Poof! Gone! Up in smoke.
I remember Bernanke, last August, trying to assure everyone that the subprime thing was just a little corner of the market and it would not spread nor effect the economy.
Yeah, I thought to myself, he’s talking through his arse just like Greenspan used to do.
And people think Stalinist Russia or Communist China lies to its people! They got nothing on Uncle Sam’s penchant for perverting truth.
(Like their inflation is officially under 4%, yeah, read Bill Gross from PIMCO and he puts up the charts for world inflation and there’s America, miraculously doing better by half! He concludes only a fool would invest in US bonds to get a truly negative return.
Lies, damn, lies, and US Federal Reserve Wankers)
Good breakdown of what potential VPs bring to the respective tickets linked. eg.
Jim Webb
“Rural whites, coon-skin hat aficionados, Klan members, West Virginians, third-shift Waffle House managers, Vietnam vets (draftees only), hunters, unregistered gun owners, weak Ron Paul supporters, still-living local extras from The Deer Hunter, and Ray, that cousin you’ve never met.”
Charlie Crist
“Floridians, tanorexics, Donatella Versace, self-described “bachelors,” Larry Craig, men who voted for David Archuleta, their beards, people who linger in rest area bathrooms, Tom Cruise, U.S. Olympic Fencing team, Paul Lynde impersonators, Robert Downey Jr once or twice in the 80’s, closeted GOP gays.”
http://www.236.com/news/2008/05/26/mccain_selecting_who_runs_amer_6729.php
Ecky- good carton with the house strapped on the 4X4, but maybe not too far from reality. Some people will have to decide between feeding the beast or paying the mortgage on a steeply devaluing asset.
Jesus it must be terrifying being caught in the maw of that. (If the average decline is 14.4%, imagine what the extreme declines are!).
Someone calculated the total decline in US housing value over this cycle and it came to trillions. Pufff! Gone! Up in smoke.
I remember Bernanke, last August, trying to assure everyone that the subprime thing was just a little corner of the market and it would not spread nor effect the economy.
Yeah, I thought to myself, he’s talking through his arse just like Greenspan used to do.
And people think Stalinist Russia or Communist China lies to its people! They got nothing on Uncle Sam’s penchant for perverting truth.
(Like their inflation is officially under 4%, yeah, read Bill Gross from PIMCO and he puts up the charts for world inflation and there’s America, miraculously doing better by half! He concludes only a fool would invest in US bonds to get a truly negative return.
Lies, damn, lies, and US Federal Reserve Wankers)
“The Pentagon’s top cop is outgunned and it’s high noon,”
http://www.pogo.org/p/government/ga-080527-pentagonig.html
Pancho, a job for ‘Ray, that cousin you’ve never met…’
475
codger
Classic isn’t it? The essential facts of his story are true and verifiable, but the rightwing nutbags go into paroxysms of rabid mouth frothing when a simple check of the record would have shown that yes, his relative’s regiment did indeed liberate a Nazi death camp.
But hey, who cares, because it’s almost June, and you know, wink wink, anything could happen.
I do believe it’s officially Bosnian Sniper Season, you know, like the ones who took pot shots at Hillarious, and if they’re game for a First Lady, well, what’s a Democratic primary runner going to look like down the sights of a high powered rifle?
Bambi, I guess!
KR, expect this to run Knicely off the back of the Knesset Knonsense.
Whatever you want to think about a guy who cheered on the notion of US imperial might and it’s right to clobber non-conforming Arab states, Fukuyama is the only Neoconservative (or ex-neocon!) that I know of, to state it was a mistake.
Like he says, if you can’t change your mind based on the evidence then we are doomed to never develop beyond first impressions. But what a disgraceful bunch the rest of them are, hiding behind their WMD figleaf or blaming the Bush Idiots for ‘bad execution’.
At least Fukuyama has the cojones to admit he was wrong. The rest of them don’t have any, but love playing armchair warrior with the lives of hundreds of thousands of people they’ll never have to meet or feel for.
And they’re ready to do it all again with Iran if they can get half a chance.
A great article by Greenwald on the state of political reporting in the US, especially at Politico (which has cleaned its act up a bit recently). Gossip, Smear and Gotcha politics are alive and well (and I certainly am as guilty as anyone of that).
http://www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald/2008/05/26/harris/index.html
482
codger
Que? (just joking!)
Yeah, it’s wonderful to watch the nutoids over-excite themselves at every opportunity.
On another note, I’ll be happy to see Clinton off, and let Obama get stuck into Macca.
Bring it on!
(I’ll be feeling sad for the Ronnettes though, maybe we should be nice to them in their time of grief…on second thoughts, nah! LOL)
KR
There’s a great quote from John Maynard Keynes, who was attacked for changing his stance on something (probably some inane obscurantist economic pseudotheory)
“When my information changes, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir?”
Mon May 26:
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=Ap85Ga1DeHCfKJGOC2CgwevX.sgF
Sun May 25: Bobby Jindal/ Jack Abramoff Memorial Crossing:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/ettahulme;_ylt=AuKxoDnMcLzVEby0stNbm9lS_b4F
Tues May 27:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AhFofITwZsLyypKCkk4qOaVR_b4F
Ah, cashing in on the Idiot Decider will be a boon to publishing:
Once, Scott McClellan was the White House press secretary. From that perch, he helped the Bush administration get out its message. Now he’s on the other side; his memoir, which will be published next week, reportedly contains some particularly damning criticisms of President George W. Bush and his administration.
The Politico obtained a copy of McClellan’s book, “What Happened: Inside the Bush White House and Washington’s Culture of Deception” at a Washington, D.C. bookstore. The paper’s Mike Allen has a look at the book’s contents — it includes, among other things, a sharp take on the selling of the war in Iraq (and the way the media bought into it), suggestions about what was going on in the White House during the Valerie Plame scandal and criticism of the handling of Bush’s public response to Hurricane Katrina.
Salon
…nice timing too. I hope he sends a free signed copy to Karl Rove! LOL
486
Diogenes
yes, one does, (and it’s the all time classic quote of the genre), except of course if you are a fundamentalist.
Neoconservatives, as they’ve evolved in the US, are fundamentalists. Mad as Bolsheviks and just as determined to keep using military force when it’s clearly NOT a solution to political problems.
And they think the Iranian mullahs are mad! LOL
Something amusing about yesterdays State by state Intrade data that I just realised – the most likely scenario is for a Democrat win, but the next likely scenario isnt a Republic win, it’s actually a 269 a piece Electoral College vote tie as New Hampshire and Ohio (the two must vulnerable Dem states) move across to the Republican column.
Oh, and a new graph on my Intrade page – Democrat win probabilities by State by electoral vote.
Makes it all easier to visualise.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/intradestatesmay27.jpg
Oh that’s pretty poss. Many thanks.
#489
The probabilities for some states, such as Arizona and Kentucky, seem very low considering that they went Democrat in one or more elections <= 1996 (according to a table I’ve seen).
Poor Bill’s lost his temper again:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/us-election/hillary-gets-no-respect-bill/2008/05/27/1211654029788.html
Tues May 27: Biospherically friendly Big Carbon lapel pins. Available now at your nearest worldwide gas station.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=ArZvUsztu6O.3qr4mQRrORlT_b4F
Tues May 27, Struggle St: collard greens ‘n’ gravy; bread and dripping; beef jerky.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=Aul90RZIfNnS3Bba5umTptDd.sgF
Ferny @ 494
Bill really needs to do something about his red face. He looks like he’s about to explode. And that clown nose is just getting worse. Put together a plethoric, ruddy face, a bulbous nose, numerous gaffes and an unstable affect and you either get Krusty the Klown or an alcoholic ex-president. It’s hard to take him seriously anymore.
Dio – particularly when he talks about others disrespecting Hillary, and does so with a straight face. What a clown.
Well Diogs,
Bill is just concerned that Hillary is not being treated with respect.
He appears to believe that respect is a Clinton’s due – regardless of how they conduct themselves.
Triton at 493,
McCains from Arizona, so that one is going nowhere!
Bin Laden just won’t shut up. Terrorism to remain a major topic for a while. Fortunately, George Bush and McCain have won the War of Terror so we don’t need to worry.
Intelligence and law enforcement sources tell ABC News they are expecting al Qaeda operatives will post a new video on the Internet in the next 24 hours, calling for what one source said is “jihadists to use biological, chemical and nuclear weapons to attack the West.”
Al Qaeda Tape to Call for Use of WMDs
http://abcnews.go.com/TheLaw/FedCrimes/story?id=4941724
Minus 47 and counting…
“11:40 a.m. – Democratic National Committeeman Sen. Ben Pangelinan announced his support of Sen. Barack Obama as the Demcratic Party nominee to be president of the United States this morning.
“I am honored to cast this most crucial and valuable vote to determine the next President of the United States. It is because of the nature of this vote, that I have taken such deliberate and measured consideration before making my decision,” Pangelinan said in a press release.
Pangelinan’s vote is the last of Guam’s nine delegate votes to be cast. five have chosen Obama, four have chosen Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton”
http://www.guampdn.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080528/NEWS01/80528010
I read somewhere that all the SDs are jockeying NOT to be the one that gives the nomination to Obama. It’s a bad career move to kill the Queen. They are trying to orchestrate it so a bunch or them do it simultaneously.
It reminds me of the firing squads where one of the ten shooters has a black cartridge but no-one knows which one was blank. That way they can cling to the hope that they fired a blank and weren’t involved in the execution.
I think that if it wasn’t for Bill, Hillary would have got out of the race weeks ago.
He’s obviously desperate to get back in the White House LOL
What would be the effect of the Michigan and Florida delegates being seated in the manner that HRC wants them to be?
DP
Bugger all. It would be overturned by the Credentials Committee which Obama has the numbers in and then go to the Convention, where he also has the numbers. If it got through by some miracle, Obama would still be ahead by 80 delegates rather than the 200 currently. It would just be a slower death for Hillary if that’s possible.
I love this focus on the fact that Hillary is ‘tenacious’ – so are head lice.
DP
Great name! We need somebody round here to nail some heads to the floor.
DP – by current estimates, Obama will be about 190 delegates ahead by June 3. If Hillary got everything she was seeking out of the FL and MI situation, he would still be up about 100. Given that Hillary’s best case scenario is never going to happen, and even full implementation of it still leaves her well off the pace, I guess the answer to 505 is ‘nothing’.
#500 Diogs-
Bin Laden???
Didn’t we support the Iraq war to get rid of him ?
Don’t tell me it was all for nothing.
Vote Republican- yah, sure.
Diogenes Says: “….Obama would still be ahead by 80 delegates rather than the 200 currently. It would just be a slower death for Hillary if that’s possible.”
Dio is correct DP but it might be even worse for Hillary.
As mentioned earlier there’s pretty good evidence that the Obama campain is banking SDs now. If the Florida and Michigan deligates were seated as suggested then he would probably unleash this large block of votes and I suspect there’d be a fairly energetic push by the remaining supers to see justice done.
Either way, she’s screwed.
oops. Sorry for the Dio-echo.
snorkel time.
(Maybe I should send her some nose-clips…)
http://www.slate.com/id/2191998/
snorkel time.
(Maybe I should send her some nose-clips…)
http://www.slate.com/id/2191998/
#499 Timbo
Okay, I guess that would influence the vote there.
(With only the Dems on the radar I never bothered to check McCain’s state)
#509 Pancho
I hope they work out some way to count the FL and MI delegates without upsetting the end result, just to kill off the possibility of a backlash in those states in November.
Triton, it is beginning to look like half votes all round, as floated by a member of the Florida delegation. One thing is for sure – there is zero chance of either state getting out of this without a slap, if only to discourage cowboys from trying similar stunts in the future.
I still think the most likely splits are
MI – Clinton 69-59 Obama (maybe at half vote, so 34.5-29.5)
FL – Clinton 105-69 Obama, 11 to Edwards (at half vote, and giving Edwards’ to Obama makes it 52.5 – 40 in Clinton’s favour)
504
Progressive Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
I think that if it wasn’t for Bill, Hillary would have got out of the race weeks ago.
He’s obviously desperate to get back in the White House
…all those free cigars, eh? The old dog just won’t sit on the porch, will he?
I distinctly remember Hillary saying Michigan wouldn’t count. Let me see. Oh yeah, here it is:
In an interview on New Hampshire Public Radio last fall, Clinton explained why she was the only candidate who did not agree to New Hampshire’s request that she take her name off the ballot in Michigan.
“It’s clear: This election they’re having is not going to count for anything. I personally did not think it made any difference whether or not my name was on the ballot,” she said.
http://mustv.com/templates/story/story.php?storyId=19188859
Not more lies Hillary, please no, not more lies!
494
Ferny, that’s classic stuff from Bill. I wonder, has he also been reading in Ronsperanto lately too? This is brilliant:
“She is winning the general election today and he is not, according to all the evidence,” Mr Clinton said as he campaigned on his wife’s behalf in South Dakota on Sunday. “I have never seen anything like it. I have never seen a candidate treated so disrespectfully just for running,”
“I can’t believe it. It is just frantic the way they are trying to push and pressure and bully all these super-delegates to come out.”
…like team HillBilly haven’t been sending around the kneecappers and the incriminating photos and the threats to melt down the party if they don’t get her shoved over the line! LOL
Can you imagine what they’ve dished out in private? You’d hide in a dark cave for a year rather than cop that, I’ll bet!
Sorry, Bill, the Supers are draining away because they think Obama is the better candidate, and not to just treat Hillary badly.
He’s getting very silly, ain’t he?
500
Diogenes Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
Bin Laden just won’t shut up. Terrorism to remain a major topic for a while. Fortunately, George Bush and McCain have won the War of Terror so we don’t need to worry.
….it seems that every Muslim wanna be jihadi is knocking up his gangs version of the youtube ‘big one’.
Nukes, bio/chem warfare?
What’s the matter, did they just run out of ‘box cutters’?
Making videos is the easy bit, DIY bio/chem is highly dubious, and both obtaining a nuke, transporting it, and detonating it is a VERY big ask.
But, hey, I’m scared, are you too?
518
Diogenes
Please don’t do no ‘direspecting’ of Hillary there Dio!
They ain’t lies, they’re covering your arse in case you have to change the story later, especially when you’ve squandered a fortune on a flawed campaign.
She takes the cake for probity…NOT!
Very light amusement, and totally off topic:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/sports/othersports/28jump.html?hp
…you do have to chuckle.
An interesting contrast:
Like Mr. McCain, neither Mr. Reagan nor Mr. Bush was a lawyer and, adopting the same rhetoric as Mr. McCain is now using, they became enthusiastic instruments of those conservative lawyers who were diligent in choosing conservative judicial nominees.
Mr. Obama, on the other hand, is a lawyer and has had a long and deep interest in the courts and the law. Cass R. Sunstein, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School and an Obama adviser, said in an interview that because Mr. Obama had taught constitutional law for 10 years at Chicago, “he is immersed in these issues.”
“The first thing to know,” Professor Sunstein said, “is that he knows this stuff inside and out, and he has the credentials to be easily appointed to the court himself.”
From his remarks in the Senate opposing the nominations of Judges Roberts and Alito, among others, Mr. Obama made clear that he would look to name judges with an expansive, progressive view of the Constitution.
In explaining his opposition to the Alito nomination, Mr. Obama said that Judge Alito’s record showed “extraordinarily consistent support for the powerful against the powerless” and “for an overreaching federal government against individual rights and liberties.”
NYT
Great opportunity to invoke some anti Hillary rhetoric from this site to boot Obama all over the blog, but the irony of the situation is too, too funny.
A couple of good takes from the article:
“a three pinnochio doozy”
Obama campaign aides were indignant that Republicans had pounced on what they called an innocent mistake over such a grave subject. Tommy Vietor, an Obama spokesman, decried “using the Holocaust and concentration camps as a political football.”
Shame about Hillary’s RFK mistake.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/27/obamas_uncle_and_the_liberatio.html
Lawyers, #s, FL MI & Michigan 36 update…Pancho, Catrina?
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/
Still plunking ya banjo for HillBilly, eh, Gruffy?
You’ll be doing the Banjo Requiem soon, with the Banjo HillBilly Orchestra (BHO) , and we’ll bring the flowers, OK?
By the way, she dropped the RFK clanger more than once. The primary season in 1968 was on a much later start, so June was not ‘late’ in the season at all, so ‘go figure’, as they say.
Obama’s reference to a part of Europe in WWII was a slight error in geography, but not in essential facts.
But go on, hey, plunk away for all the good it’s doin’.
Hey Gruffy, read this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bank-failures-surge-credit-crunch/story.aspx?guid=%7B2FCA4A0C%2D227D%2D48FE%2DB42C%2D8DDF75D838DA%7D
…and then tell me things are not crook! LOL
‘The fact that the Republicans and the silly psycho posters are jumping on this and calling him a liar just shows how desperate they all are, grasping at straws.’
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/05/27/obamas_uncle_and_the_liberatio.html
Shut the gate too GG, thanks.
Finns and GG-
if that is lie, what is the sniper attack in bosnia? One is a “misspeak”, and one (video evidence and all) is total fabrication. You pick the box boys.
KR,
Thank you. But I call it plucking (as in “I’m plucking you over again”).
BTW, these silly people obviously read and believed your doomsday predictions.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/16/2247471.htm
Jen,
How long has Obama had to get his lines right?
I think there are just a few double standards in how you guys judge the failings of Hillary compared to Obama. Exaggerated outrage anyone?
Yep – yours GG.
530
Greensborough Growler
nah, you plunk, ya plonker! LOL (And I mean that in the nicest possible way!)
Where’s your little mate? Wednesday,that’s right, pulling the legs of small animals and filming them thrash around. Gosh, he’s such a funny little chap, how do you keep from laughing yourself silly, eh?
codger,
Um, I already posted that @ 525. Your point?
KR,
Can you please confirm for the benefit of the other PBers whether you read my posts or, as you always claim, completely ignore them?
Your incontinence on this matter is very confusing.
Jen,
Time for you to go to that room of mirrors again.
535
Greensborough Growler
When it’s a dull day, and you make it short, I can usually read two lines of your stuff just by scrolling past it.
Ron’s epic Ronpseranto Rants are an entirely different matter! LOL
But no, not usually, but some times you’re almost amusing.
GG see 476, same mistake.
Is that what you think I do, GG?
nah- Too risky what with the high-horse and all.
Besides it’s hard to find time after all that ducking and diving.
Honestly, if you guys send me off on any more activities I may as well have joined the scouts, not a political blog site.
Jen,
I agree, posting here is the best fun you can have sitting down.
KR,
What a nice thing to say.
Cheers.
Aw, it’s so lovely when you all play nicely.
It’s way too hard for Gruffy to get his mind around, but an excellent explanation of the massive de-leveraging in financial markets by Satyajit Das, a man who really knows how to explain this stuff:
Equity markets believe the worst is over. Banks also seem to have convinced themselves that the worst is behind us. An alternative and, arguably, better view of the current state of the financial crisis is that stated by Winston Churchill: “… this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/FeaturedCommentaryHome
Gruffy, the last paragraph is for you:
Resolution of the crisis requires brave and decisive steps that transcend geography, jurisdiction, regulatory silos, nationalism and rigid economic formalism. John Maynard Keynes knew the problem well: “the difficulty lies not so much in developing new ideas as in escaping from old ones”. But as John Kenneth Galbraith observed: “faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.”
Thanks, TF for posting the whole opinion piece from Crikey @ 409. The problem with it is: the collar doesn’t match the cuffs.
When he puts forward five different scenarios A couple are probably unrealistic), but there are other non-fanciful Obama-winning scenarios beyond the 3 good ones there. And then he concludes that, on planet Earth, superdelegates will see it as their “duty to history” to suddenly about-face and start endorsing HRC en masse. The reason? HRC would win Ohio, and “quite possibly” Mississippi, Kentucky and the southwest. Yes. Well, thanks for trying. (Incidentally, most recent poll shows her 20% behind McC in Mississippi. It ain’t gospel, but it doesn’t inspire you to put it in the ‘possible pickup’ column, does it?) Somehow, I don’t see your ‘Ohio and “quite possibly” others’ argument causing delegates to scream, ‘What were we thinking?! Now you put it like that, of course I’m going back to Clinton!’
HRC’s campaign would have been largely 2000/2004 redux, i.e. ‘hold the Dem line and try to snag Ohio or Florida’. (There would be have been further red-state skirmishes principally in Missouri, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Iowa, but– bearing in mind the chance for one or two gains the other way– McC would have backed himself to win enough of them to deny her victory if she couldn’t take O or F.)
At this stage Ohio would look good for the Dems in a HRC v McC head-to-head, but there would be a long long way to go. For a guy with fiscal worries like McCain, that sort of small, defined battle would play into his hands. He would have the battleground laid out at his feet: he could certainly accumulate the money to carpet-bomb Ohio and Florida, and the time to plan exactly how he would defend the territory. The Obama electoral theory is that McC will find himself with the ground shifting beneath his feet throughout the campaign, overstretching himself by defending against well-resourced attacks in a huge number of states. Will it work? We’ll have fun finding out.
And, of course, those for whom Clinton was the One True Saviour the Dems Rejected, will keep themselves warm with the absolute certainty that she would have won in a landslide. And like all theories held with absolute certainty, it’s made better, not worse, by the fact that its accuracy can and will never be tested.
I want proportional representation in NSW Libs.
Cost of living expenses aren’t coming down Mr. Rudd, you gave the impression you could help…
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/petrol-hits-alltime-high/2008/05/28/1211654098852.html
Obama’s Auschwitz uncle gaffe was a clanger. Careless. Not helpful. Not hurtful though.
Some in the jewish population might take notice. Initially they might be a tad miffed but if things like this are important to them, then the revelation that Obamas great uncle actually did fight in the liberation of Buchenwald actually might make him more attractive.
Hi JOM – think you might have hit the wrong thread.
Agreed Harry –
a slight flesh wound – not fatal.
Unlike Hillary’s evisceration of a comment.
Intrade probabilities as a map!
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/05/mapuselectionma727.gif
Let’s not forget in all this analysis of repug support bases there is the ultimate weapon to have it eroded – themselves.
I think that’s absolutley right Harry, if he had got it right the first time, no-one would have given it second thought. This way at least everyone knows Obamas uncle did fight to liberate the concentration camps. A careless gaffe for sure but it may well work to his advantage.
Jen #546, Hi – I think your right… opps.
I just read Mumble’s theory on can Barack Obama win? I would tend to agree with him based upon my experiences in NYC and NY state.
Two years ago when I was in NYC I was amazed to hear how much race played a part in things. From NYC being called Jew York (Forgive me I mean no offence to anyone) to where you can go and where you shouldn’t go based upon your nationality and race. I was particularily amazed to hear that if a black person moves into your street the price of houses drops in that street and I was given an example where neighbours sometimes have a say in who they would like living next to them… I was shocked.
HarryH and Timbo
While i’d love for that to be the case, all the repugs would say is that “he lied about his uncle fighting to liberate whatever the camps name is”
It wouldn’t get into specifics. Just that he did lie.
548
Possum Comitatus
Pretty, does it come with a colour chart too?
SimonH
Obama and Clinton would both beat McCain in Nov because they are representing the Dem Party and McCain is representing the Republican Party. It is as simple as that.
The Republican Party is massively on the nose to the electorate and being torn apart from within.
The difference between Obama/Dean and Clinton/DLC is in congressional and Senate races. Obama and Dean are supporting all 50 states and hence we see results like the last 3 contests that have shattered the Repugs. Dean and Obamas Dems put money and organization into the contests and ran a suitable candidate. The DLC and Clinton wouldn’t have bothered. Under them they just split the country in half with the Repugs and had a feast at the trough.
This is why the Party heavyweights and elected officials and state reps and Supers are flowing to Obama.
Not some HillBilly fantasy of “oh they’re picking on us”.
543
SimonH
you’ve outlined all the reasons I refuse to pay for crikey! LOL
(That Rundle piece was fanciful speculation, replete with exclamations, and woefully short on reasoning from any datat)
Just the sort of thing to persuade the dunces it actually amounted to more than a Hill of beans.
Interesting commentary from today’s EV.
“No new primary polls today, but we have general election polls in Kentucky and Minnesota. Kentucky is fairly dramatic: Clinton beats McCain solidly, but McCain beats Obama by a huge margin. This is Clinton’s case: Obama can’t win in Appalachia. But November is a long time from now and many Clinton supporters who now say they will never vote for Obama may change their minds if he is ultimately the nominee. Bitter primary fights are always like this initially.”
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Maps/May27.html
KR – not that I’ve figured out yet. Darker the blue the higher the Dem prob, darker the red the higher the Repub prob, white is 0.5.
And since it’s a gif file, since its the same size each time I make it and since the colour scheme represents the same sized probabilities – come about October – I can build a great whopping animated gif where we can watch as the probabilities have changed over time.
Lets hope thats the case GG, though I still think Obama will be fine in Penns and Ohio anyway
All that red makes Uncle Sam look like a damn commie!
557
Possum Comitatus
The old ‘animated gif trick’, as Maxwell Smart used to say!
That will be truly bewdiful!
Can we call it hydrangea blue, just add Obama?
Sharon Stone said the Dalai Lama is her good friend and that “I’m not happy about the way the Chinese are treating the Tibetans because I don’t think anyone should be unkind to anyone else,” Stone said on Thursday during a Cannes Film Festival red-carpet interview with Hong Kong’s Cable Entertainment News. “And then this earthquake and all this stuff happened, and then I thought, is that karma? When you’re not nice that the bad things happen to you?”
According to China Daily “The death toll from the quake reached 67,183 by midday Tuesday, with 361,822 injured and 20,790 missing, according to the Information Office of the State Council. More than 45.61 million people were affected in the deadly quake, and about 15 million have been displaced”
This is a karma of punishment because she is unhappy because her good friend has not been treatly nicely. Has this woman got any brain cells left up there or the lack of underwear all these years have killed off all her brain cells from down there.
Maybe it is also a karma that 120,000 died in Burma because the military regime has not been nice to Aung San Suu Kyi.
You expected an intelligent comment from Sharon Stone Finns?
Why?
#562 – When she was a young woman her IQ was tested at 154 points. 130+ Very superior 2.2%
Triton & Pancho , Libertarian and Equity and ‘democratic’
wish to argue against the full admission of FL & MI , argue against my detailed #642. Today you guys/Obama have added 2 new math rorts. Previously yous/Obama have been content 1/ to bar an election conducted compliant with electoral laws of 2.3 million voters & all semblance of equity and 2/ to forfeit to all 3rd World countries credibility to follow democracy as they’ll see 2.3 million FL & MI voters were banded by ‘head office rules”(that’s dictaors rules they’ve already got)
In both 1/ and 2/ , so called ‘libertarians’ amongst yous have trashed your own most basic principles at the altar of getting Obama elected. History won’t remove this page and nor does my still unchallenged #642 blog detailing all breachs of it stands
Yous/Obama are now compounding this ‘democratic’ abuse going 2 additional steps
Let me explain for the blogoshere record, with maths (to barbarian-ism 4 decimals so Callum & others don’t query I didn’t as they’ve done before) These maths calculations UNDERSTATE Hillarys entitlement for mathematic reasons I won’t complikate with yous here
MI total vote , 594,401, Hillary 328,309 (55.23%) ‘uncommitted voters’ (Obama, Edwards , ‘others’) 238,168 (40.07%) , 3 other Dems candidates 27,924 (4.70%).
Lets give Obama the benefit there were no ‘others’ in the ‘uncommitted voters’ , and lets pro rata the 4.70% 3 Dems candidates 9one method) , the resulting % shares are Hillary 57.9538% and ‘uncommitted voters’ Obama & Edwards 42.0462%
Total Delegates 128 , Hillary share 74.18 delegates and ‘uncommted voters’ Obama and Edwards 53.82 delegates. Therefor Hillarys surplus vs Obama AND Edwards AND ‘other’ uncommitted voters is 20.36 delegates. VS yous/ Obama first rort suggestion of Hillary 69/59 (a Hillary net 10 delegates) and a further double rort suggestion to halve th rort to a 34.5 to 29.5 ie to 5 delegates
This leaves libertarians amongst yous , Hillary with a net of 5 delegates over Obama VS the actual net 20.36 delegates for Obama AND Edwards AND ‘others’ uncommitted voters’ combined. That’s a 75% discount of a 100% legal vote ! But its discount is dramatically highter once you remove the Edwards & othes uncommitted
The 31/2/08 Dems rules meeting
(a) may or may not accept all of FL’s delegates but if they do how do they justify the 5 months procrastination & consequent litgitmate momentum damage to Hillarys campaign .(Obamabots have said ‘libetarian democratically’ for months accept none) .
(b) It will intimidate FL & MI State committees into discounting thes 100% MI legal votes threatening Party disharmony to election pprospects and the Mayor Koch /Dr Adam black voters for ever desertion from the Party threat.
Yous/Obama may be hapy but the barbarian may have most of the 17 million Hillary voters agreeing with him and they alll get to vote. If the Nominee , Obama will be ‘tainted’
563 Finns Says: When she was a young woman her IQ was tested at 154 points. 130+ Very superior 2.2%
Which is a wonderful example of why IQ tests aren’t worth the paper they’re printed on.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080528/ap_on_el_pr/primary_scramble_1
This is also of interest: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/adventures-in-lannyland.html
I can sit on a ile akk day & coincidently dump it to pancho
564
Ron Says:
May 28th, 2008 at 4:48 pm
Triton & Pancho , Libertarian and Equity and ‘democratic’
wish to argue against the full admission of FL & MI , argue against my detailed #642. Today you guys/Obama have added 2 new math rorts. Previously yous/Obama have been content 1/ to bar an election conducted compliant with electoral laws of 2.3 million voters & all semblance of equity and 2/ to forfeit to all 3rd World countries credibility to follow democracy as they’ll see 2.3 million FL & MI voters were banded by ‘head office rules”(that’s dictaors rules they’ve already got)
In both 1/ and 2/ , so called ‘libertarians’ amongst yous have trashed your own most basic principles at the altar of getting Obama elected. History won’t remove this page and nor does my still unchallenged #642 blog detailing all breachs of it stands
Yous/Obama are now compounding this ‘democratic’ abuse going 2 additional steps
Let me explain for the blogoshere record, with maths (to barbarian-ism 4 decimals so Callum & others don’t query I didn’t as they’ve done before) These maths calculations UNDERSTATE Hillarys entitlement for mathematic reasons I won’t complikate with yous here
MI total vote , 594,401, Hillary 328,309 (55.23%) ‘uncommitted voters’ (Obama, Edwards , ‘others’) 238,168 (40.07%) , 3 other Dems candidates 27,924 (4.70%).
Lets give Obama the benefit there were no ‘others’ in the ‘uncommitted voters’ , and lets pro rata the 4.70% 3 Dems candidates 9one method) , the resulting % shares are Hillary 57.9538% and ‘uncommitted voters’ Obama & Edwards 42.0462%
Total Delegates 128 , Hillary share 74.18 delegates and ‘uncommted voters’ Obama and Edwards 53.82 delegates. Therefor Hillarys surplus vs Obama AND Edwards AND ‘other’ uncommitted voters is 20.36 delegates. VS yous/ Obama first rort suggestion of Hillary 69/59 (a Hillary net 10 delegates) and a further double rort suggestion to halve th rort to a 34.5 to 29.5 ie to 5 delegates
This leaves libertarians amongst yous , Hillary with a net of 5 delegates over Obama VS the actual net 20.36 delegates for Obama AND Edwards AND ‘others’ uncommitted voters’ combined. That’s a 75% discount of a 100% legal vote ! But its discount is dramatically highter once you remove the Edwards & othes uncommitted
The 31/2/08 Dems rules meeting
(a) may or may not accept all of FL’s delegates but if they do how do they justify the 5 months procrastination & consequent litgitmate momentum damage to Hillarys campaign .(Obamabots have said ‘libetarian democratically’ for months accept none) .
(b) It will intimidate FL & MI State committees into discounting thes 100% MI legal votes threatening Party disharmony to election pprospects and the Mayor Koch /Dr Adam black voters for ever desertion from the Party threat.
Yous/Obama may be hapy but the barbarian may have most of the 17 million Hillary voters agreeing with him and they alll get to vote. If the Nominee , Obama will be ‘tainted’
Thanks, PC, for the map. Not that we don’t know the colours of the 2 missing ones, but appointing myself an honorary Tasmanian for a moment: shame on you for only giving us 48 states!
Recent polls certainly bear out PC’s point (or it was someone’s point with which PC agrees) that US publicly-released polls are pretty horrendous quality (at least the state-based ones). You can extrapolate general trends from a bunch of them, but you can’t rely on a single poll to tell you which day it is, let alone who’ll win.
Exhibit A: New Hampshire. The people of New Hampshire aren’t living in such a state of nervous excitement that they’ve gone from McCain-in-a-landslide to Obama-in-a-landslide in the space of 3 weeks (the polls were even done by the same company!). Hence why sites like electoral-vote.com look pretty, but once you scratch the surface the reality is much more complicated than ‘Ooooh! That one looks red! Red means Republican. The GOP must be going to win it then.’
The intrade pundits seem more sensible to just sit on the fence with places like NH and Nevada, until there’s reliable information that would actually cause someone to jump one way or t’other.
Good news for the Dems that New Mexico is already listed as a 67:33 pickup, and they’ve reached 50/50 status in Virginia (which must be the favourite state to be to 2008 what Ohio was 2004 and Florida to 2000).
On the plus side for the GOP, though, they’d be buoyed by being given a 30% chance of winning back Wisconsin. It’s too hard for McCain to attempt to just grimly defend the 2004 battlements, especially seeing that Iowa’s pretty much been given away (80:20 on Intrade, Obama winning in every head-to-head forever) and so he ’starts’ at 279 electoral votes.
He has to have a win or two in Kerry states, to win the election.
I have a good excuse though Simon – I cant figure out how to move Alaska and Hawaii into a single US map!
I’m just exporting my data into Mappoint which makes the maps with a few clicks (a horrendously shallow piece of software BTW) – but until I can even begin to figure out Quantum GIS (which has a learning curve that’s heavy on the gravity) – the poor Eskimos and Hula dancers are just gonna have to suck it up
Warning – Stats (but in the spiffy graph for follow)
No wonder McCain wanted a gas tax holiday. The McCain/Obama polling margin vs. petrol price:
http://ccpsblog.blogspot.com/2008/05/high-gas-prices-dont-help-mccain.html
FINNS
ANNOUNSEMENT: the launch of the “obama barbarian barometer” , election prediction competition for the pollsters , marsupials market predictions , the 10,000 stimulators , the computer modelers and the electoral maps suit brigades. A new Century technology to replace the 20th ‘s outdated hardware , the human analytical mind now patterned & lingo-d the future superior technology to b.
Todays POTUS result from the ‘obama barbarian barometer’ , Hillary (to convet to % lingo) now hit the 70%’s to win POTUS , Obama in the middle 40%’s to win. Hillary is pretty much guaranteed to win POTUS now , if the SD’s use commonsense
Hillary with her existing solid is now seeing new cracks in the McCain’s further opening up to her & solid. For the Obama the new McCains cracks are more numerous but conflicting & smaller, and a close 2 state either way result for Obama more lokely (vs a thrashing or if State lucky drop his way, solid win).
Also Amigos , the barbarian tape measure have found a flaw naturally inherent in the markets systems different from the simulations, poll models & maps yet similar underpinning principles. The tricks of making a ‘book’ but the faithful will dismiss & the barbarian really cares , but the tabanacle of bama barabarian barometer remains
Diog at 503, it does indeed seem that alot of the SDs are too gutless to come out yet, and I guess are hoping Hillary will concede before they show their hand. Otherwise, what are they waiting for??
Given that the vast majority since Feb have come out for Obama, you’d have to think he has the majority in hand. After all, if they were goiung to declare for Hillary, you’d have thought they would have done so much earlier, when he could have helped her numbers.
The website http://www.fivethirtyeight.com is run by clever fellows.
A far more sophisticated way of working out who does better in a vs McCain match-up than the ‘he’ll win this, she’ll win that’ counting of e-v.com (based on a single poll decided by one or two percent), is by deducing a percentage likelihood of each candidate winning a state and then multiplying it by the delegates at stake. Then compare the two totals. Luckily, the good people of 538 have done just that, seemingly by a regression analysis (and don’t ask me to explain what that is) of the available polls.
By my count, HRC is ahead of Obama by 1345 ‘percent’, that is to say, 13.45 electoral votes. That advantage is more-than-accounted-for by her huge advantage in Florida: 56% (73% assessed chance of winning vs 17% for O) x 27 delegates. Of course the fivethirtyeight measure isn’t ideal because, for example, it gives a 156 ‘percent’ or 1.56 EV advantage to HRC in Massachussets based on her 13% higher assessed chance of winning (99% to 86%) x 12 delegates; but the ‘advantage’ is illusory as I’d bet my bottom dollar that O will take away all 12 delegates from Mass in November. Still, like I say, it’s better than e-v.com.
I’d like to say ‘it’ll be interesting to see where the data goes from here’, but sadly the answer is probably nowhere: hard to see that many pollsters will continue doing Clinton v McCain matchups after June 3.
HRC has had a huge bump in the last couple of weeks– gone from 50% likely to beat McCain, to over 60% likely, on the fivethirtyeight analysis– while Obama has tracked upwards above 50% over the same period, but much much more slowly. Yet the period has coincided with her campaign going from being on-life-support to slightly smelly. Good news of big wins in WV and Kentucky surely must have been cancelled out by all of the ‘why is she still bothering?’ media commentary and the worse-than-expected loss in Oregon. And, from being neck-and-neck in the national Dem primary opinion polls a few weeks back, she’s now getting thrashed by 10% in that vote. So it’s actually pretty hard to explain.
Just speculating, maybe for a proportion of voters the HRC v McCain question has become a bit like asking people ‘Who would you vote for in an Elvis Presley v McCain matchup?’ (i.e. you know it’s an entirely theoretical choice you’ll never be asked to make on a real ballot paper, so you might as well be nice to the greaseball).
SimonH S
#573
you couldn’t work out the popular vote correctly and on wach of the 2 occasions I corrected your your logic , you went off and sulked for a day. Now in #573 you produce the snoby “elitists” contribution to election mathematics , butterfly style , all blank and it still doesn’t add up. Give maths a miss , clearly not your thing , you could be the site’s resident ‘weather parrot’
Ronnie, It is interesting to note when Hillary made her gaffe over the dead kennedy, the Huff had a headline as if to announce the end of the world. But not a single sausage on Auschwitzgate. Cheers.
The Liberation of Barack Obama:
First, he did know know for 20 years that his Pastor has been saying all these nasty things about his country.
Second, he did not know that Auschwitz is located in southern Poland, near the city of Krakow.
Third, Auschwitz was liberated by the Red Army on January 27, 1945 not by the mighty USA. The Americans had not even crossed into Germany at this point.
Fourth, he did not know that Buchenwald camp was located in Lower Saxony [Germany].
Fifth, he did not know the difference between Poland and Germany
Sixth, he did not know that At least 960,000 Jews were killed in Auschwitz and the Buchenwald camp had a population of 11,700 prisoners and hard labourers. It was not a death camp like Auschwitz as such.
Seventh, he did not know that his Mum was a single child and that he has NO uncle from his Mum side. it was the brother of his maternal grandmother, so it was his grand uncle.
Eighth – he did not know that he has just lost the Jewish votes.
Nineth – he did not know that he has just lost the deer hunter votes as well but he can rectify this by stating that his step father was in the Army (Indonesian TNI)
Tenth – he did not know that USA has only 51 states, not 57.
Eleventh – he did not know that he threw his grandma under the bus, his pastor uncle under the bus and now his grand uncle under the bus to get elected. next? Michelle if she becomes too heavy.
Twelveth – he did not know that he should not use the victims of holocaust as a political tool to “connect” himself to the military, the deer hunters, and patriotism. They have long been torpedoed by Pastorgate, Michellegate, Flagpingate, Bittergate, Irangate and now finally sunk by the Auschwitzgate, own goal.
Thirteenth – “And the story in our family is that when he came home he just went up in the attic and he didn’t leave the house for six months.” yes, we know the STORY, but what are the facts Barack, what are the facts. we know now all of your life is just a STORY.
Fourteenth – he did not know that you can’t see dead people, unless he was in “The Sixth Sense”. “On this Memorial Day, as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes — and I see many of them in the audience here today — our sense of patriotism is particularly strong.”
Fourteenth – he did not know that he is turning into a Pinocchio.
Come on Finns, I’ll give you another try:
“Tenth – he did not know that USA has only 51 states, not 57.”
Superdelegate Roundup
Since my last update early this morning we have has a little excitement on the super delegate front. DNC Kevin Rodriguez (VI) who defected from Clinton back on the 10 May has just defected from Obama back to Clinton. Shortly after that Obama gained DNC Nancy Drummond (WY) thereby neutralizing the damage. All up yesterdays super traffic netted +1 for Obama and +1 for Clinton and an overall reduction in the pool of remaining delegates of 2.
DNC League Table in the race for 2025 (pledged and supers)
Obama: 1977, needs 48 to win
Clinton: 1780, needs 245 to win
Pool: 292 (86 pledged, 7 Edwards, 199 undeclared supers)
Projected League Table (with Pelosi Factor, and projected results of remaining contests)
Obama: 2026, needs -1 to win
Clinton: 1823, needs 202 to win
Pool: 199
#576 – Amigo, if only i was running for POTUS
Getting pretty tacky Finns. Tapper’s take (not you, the journo):
#579 Amigo, the point that i try to show is a very simple one. When Hillary made a gaffe. It is the end of the world. When Obama made a gaffe, everyone is making excuses for him or “dont mention the war” ala The Huff.
Fins at 580
*sigh*
#581 – you doing well. just keep your place in the conga line of suckholes.
Fins at 582
And I love you back Sweetie.
Katrina, is that sexism in reverse? i should be calling you sweetie, sweetie
Fins at 584
You can do whatever you want – Sunshine.
Katrina, over in New Orleans – still cloudy
The whining about whether or not HRC is a better candidate are irrelevant. Obama has the numbers, and he will use the numbers.
Basically, HRC didnt bother to figure out how the delegate selection process worked, and therefore she left delegates on the table in States she lost but was competitive in – and, yes, I’m looking at you Alaska, Utah, Idaho, Colorado, North Dakota, Minnesota and Kansas.
Yes, Obama cannot carry Appalachia. So what ? Thats Kentucky, West Virginia and Tennessee.
He is winning New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio and Virginia. Thats enough.
Hi Ian,
Care to share any Dili memories ?
ESJ,
Never got to Dili, mate
Kopassus interfered with the boat?
Finns,
Catrina and her waving, sunshine. has to be.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eONhto0x_nI
ESJ,
Nahh. Regular navy.
ESJ, Kopassus speaks the lingo the kid can understand.
GG, love the real Katrina and her Sunshine not the clayton one on the conga line.
How many were compromised from the beginning on the journey?
Always thought you were compromised Ian, you and that Karin McLaughlin woman.
The Finnigans
#575
“Ronnie, It is interesting to note when Hillary made her gaffe over the dead kennedy, the Huff had a headline as if to announce the end of the world. But not a single sausage on Auschwitzgate. ”
Auschwitzgate , perhaps Obama was caught on the wrong lie. Auschwitz was liberated by the Red Army on January 27, 1945 not by USA , so
1/ either Obama lied to exaggerate his Uncle freeing J.e.ws…for FL , or
2/ Obama told the truth his Uncle did free the jews at Auschwitz but Obama lied about his Uncle being in the Red Army
According to the new election predictor the “bama barbarian barometer’ the j.e.ws aee not impressed with either lie because they know Obama gave a prepared speech deliberatley quoting Uncle at Auschwitzo cynically woo their vote
Hey Diogenes, where is your outrage now over Obama’s pathetic attempt to win the Jewish votes by invoking his fictitious heroic uncle liberating a real Auschwitz. The Obama supporters must feel pretty proud of their boy right now.
#1394 – Diogenes Says:
May 24th, 2008 at 1:58 pm
The blogosphere has really gone into meltdown over Hillary admitting she is staying in the race in the hope that someone will assassinate Obama. She lost the PDs, the SDs, the popular vote, the number of states and electability. Now she has changes the goalposts to “least likely to be assassinated”. The Hillary supporters must feel pretty proud of their girl right now.
What a fuc#ing b!tch.
596 Ron
It’s not a lie if you believe it’s true. It’s a mistake. Big deal. Auschwitz or Buchenwald, the basis premise is the same.
575 Finns
If we are going to get picky here, you are technically wrong. Very few Jews were killed in Auschwitz. Most were killed in Birkenau, which was the sister extermination camp which was adjacent. Only in latter days have the three camps Auschwitz, Birkenau and Monowitz been bundled together conveniently as Auschwitz.
ooh a holocaust fact debate.
Now Diogenes – are you really going to draw a distinction between work camps and extermination camps?
Diog, [If we are going to get picky here, you are technically wrong. Very few Jews were killed in Auschwitz. Most were killed in Birkenau, which was the sister extermination camp which was adjacent. Only in latter days have the three camps Auschwitz, Birkenau and Monowitz been bundled together conveniently as Auschwitz.] – i dont believe you actually wrote this!!! you are pathetic.
598
Diogenes
I don’t think the fine distinction between an outright lie and a slight error in geography (of minor European places unkown outside of WWII histories) is easily grasped by the Finnster.
But what the hell, poor boy’s lost the argument because it does not matter, Hillary has lost this race, so he’ll just have to get used to it, and move right along very soon.
Finnster: get Catrina to give you a lesson in ’straws’ and ‘clutching’ thereof! LOL
The lunatics have escaped from the asylum again!
Oh No, the man from Showy River is suffering the ADS again as Ron appears.
Kirribilli: ESJ and Ron aren’t real Hillary supporters, so I doubt they’d be going through any sort of grief over her demise.
I support a Democrat for President in 2008, I just dont think OBAMA-DEVAL is the ticket to deliver it.
ESJ
Monowitz was the work camp for IG Farben and was considered highly preferable to Auschwitz which was preferable to Birkenau.
Technically, more Jews died in Buchenwald than Auschwitz. And there clearly was a distinction between work camps and extermination camps. In the work camps, the inmates were starved and worked to death. In the extermination camp they were gassed.
Apologies to those discussing pornography whose comments got caught up in my spam filter.
Meanwhile, over on electoral-vote, word is:
Obama picked up a couple more supers yesterday. An interesting pattern is starting to emerge. This hasn’t been discussed anywhere else, but it seems unlikely to be an accident. If we take the average of the six news sources below, Obama has about 1975 delegates at the moment. He’ll probably win about 24 in Puerto Rico, as discussed Monday, bringing his total to 1999. This means he needs 27 more delegates to reach 2026. Montana should be good for about nine, making that 2007. We’ll look at South Dakota in a few days, but suppose it is good for eight, making it 2015. It would be very symbolic if Obama was put over the 2026 number by the voters rather than the supers. All it would take is another dozen supers to announce they are for him between now and Tuesday, about two a day, similar to the current rate. So look for Obama to be around 2010 to 2020 Tuesday morning so the voters of Montana and South Dakota can propel him to victory. He could then claim victory in Montana, a surprisingly Democratic state. The governor (Brian Schweitzer) and both senators (Max Baucus and Jon Tester) are Democrats and the Democrats control the state Senate and are two seats shy of controlling the state House. Being put over the top by the voters in a Western state that the Democrats practically own at the state level would get the pundits all excited. Of course, if the BNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee seats Florida and Michigan in anything other than a 50-50 split, the arithmetic changes and Obama might have to release more supers Monday to let the supers put him over the top Tuesday.
…and notice that last bit about Obama releasing more supers! It’s the Super faucet, and Obama just has to open the spigot and out they come! LOL
Soon, Ron and the Ronettes will have nothing more to whinge about.
Diogenes,
#598
Diogenes , Obama suporters spent a WHOLE day “outraged about the Hillary/ RFK comment , where Hllary showed poor judgement over one persons death ,so I find it odd you are the one defending this Obama who wants to play politics with 6 million ‘je’ws deaths.
Obama HIMSELF said it , he is savvy he knows what he is saying , he said it to deliberately to win j.e.ws votes , you know that and I do !!!
IF it was important enough to say for tacky sickly political reasons (it isn’t) then Obama the indecent , should at least get his facts straight or he lied.
Also , If it was politically important to say in a POTUS election , well if he cann’t even remember where his Uncle served that he deliberately wants to publicly highlight where is Obama going to be ‘at 3.00 AM ‘.
UNLIKE OBAMA SUPPORTERS IN REVESE , I posted 2 posts re Hillarys ‘RFK thing’ criticising Hillary for poor judgement and for using a (correct) political analogy but one that was in poor taste.
That was one deceased person RFK , this guy Obama plays for sickly political advantage with 6 million deceased humans and Obama should be condemned for even saying it ( the lie or cann’t get his facts right when deliberately saying something are a further critique). but there is silence from the Obama supporters , hiding away from even posting sitting in the butterfly nests , well my Barabarian standards aren’t looking too bad case HRC got a serve from me
Finns 597
I didn’t answer your question as our posts crossed. I didn’t see the context of Obama’s comments. Drudge appears totally disinterested with only a short link. Personally, I think it’s pretty irrelevant, cynical and gratuitous for him to mention it if that was the sound-bite he was looking for. He should in no way try to get any vicarious credit for his great-uncle. If the comments were mainly about his great-uncle getting PTSD, I’m not fussed. I really think the Auschwitz vs Buchenwald thing just shows he doesn’t know his Holocaust history as much as I would hope for.
And what’s all this about pornography!!! What have I been missing??
Ron at 609
No Ron – Hillary got caught out misspeaking while vainly attempting to spin a blatant lie to the American people.
609 Ron
I answered Finns but it’s in moderation (I used the word p@rn@graphy). I’ll try again. Incidentally I partly agree with you.
Finns 597
I didn’t answer your question as our posts crossed. I didn’t see the context of Obama’s comments. Drudge appears totally disinterested with only a short link. Personally, I think it’s pretty irrelevant, cynical and gratuitous for him to mention it if that was the sound-bite he was looking for. He should in no way try to get any vicarious credit for his great-uncle. If the comments were mainly about his great-uncle getting PTSD, I’m not fussed. I really think the Auschwitz vs Buchenwald thing just shows he doesn’t know his genocide history as much as I would hope for.
Obama has his oriental side. He lived there for some 6 of his formative years. His mum spent half of her life in Indonesia. Obama has an Indonesian step father and half sister. he is very closed to his half sister. in oriental culture you dont confuse your uncle with your grand uncle. Never, never, and never. It is unforgivable to show no respect of this generation distinction. Unless, Obama has completely forgotten his oriental culture.
611
Catrina
Hi Catrina, I was waiting for you turn up, since the Finnster would like a lesson, two words: ‘clutching’ and ’straws’.
Could you help him with this, please?
MR-FORGET-ME-NOT’
every day your inflated pride is imploded by the voting stats proving still that your Obama is not recognised as the ‘best’ by US voters. Worse for ‘clangsey’ is the knowledge everyone in the world can see these indeputable stats.
The fact we’ve proved he is a phony , vote rorting FL & MI , lying & now using alfonso tactics for SD’s would normally make you as tainted , however we cann’t see that throught he big noting that FINNS slaped you down for
The reason your colleagues aren’t live is the j.e.ws tacky sickly Obama ‘gafe’
what with their ‘outrage’ over RFK makingthem the hypocrites they are for not also condemning Obama
Ron @ 609
It’s not a major point but I think it’s worth remembering that the Holocaust was not only a Jewish tragedy. Many other groups were exterminated like the mentally ill, alcoholics, homosexuals and gypsies.
Actually, the pornography discussion was probably on the Australian thread – something to do with Bill Henson no doubt.
Diogenes I made 6 points in 6 paragraphs , not sure which you don’t like .
I’ve tackled Mumbles & Jackson over nasty tacky ‘racial’ articles.effective silence
I’ve tacckled hillary here over a bad taste & poor judgement
Now I’m tackling Obama with 6 points , it was sickly & tacky & deliberatley for politically reasons. Just like with my Mumble & Jackson , the silence is there
Tell you what all yous Obama supporters , barbarians know more about ‘decency’ than yous ‘educated’ elitist snoby butterflys
Ron, de ron, ron,ron, ron, you’re a total crack up!
One day soon, I just know it, you’re going to jump up and start speaking in lucid language and tell us all it’s been a cracking hoax!
Otherwise, you just cannot be serious! The lunatic things you are saying are so mad, so utterly unbelievable, that you’re either having us all on for a lark, or you are, to put it bluntly, bonkers.
Until you prove otherwise however, I’ll just have to stick with bonkers.
617
William Bowe
yeah, at any Henson exhibition you just can’t move for creepy looking guys in raincoats!
617 William
I suppose it’s too much to hope for that the p@rnography discussion was about Kate Ellis and Mia Handshin?
Talk about pornography – this thread is turning into the biggest wank-fest since high school kids got hold of a copy of their big brother’s Playboy and took it onto the oval at lunchtime.
Hi there PBers. We talked briefly about the substitution of B Obama for T Kennedy at the Wesleyan graduation the other day, and there is a nice little insight into Obama the speechmaker from James Fallows in the Atlantic Monthly. He noticed a very subtle reference by Obama to a great speech Kennedy made in 1980:
What is so elegant about this touch? Precisely that Obama did not feel obliged to spell out all the links. (”And what I ask of you, in Senator Kennedy’s own unforgettable words…”) Politicians shouldn’t be obscure. But a willingness to assume good things about the public — its knowledge, its understanding, its ability to rise above the most immediate appeal to pocketbook or prejudice — is part of what makes a politician into a leader.
http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/obama_at_wesleyan_a_subtle_art.php
I think this Barry guy just might have what it takes to be a cut above the ordinary POTUS, which is two cuts above Bush-ordinary and Clinton-ordinary.
621
Diogenes
Down Dio, down boy!
Must you have erotic fantasies about politicians? Isn’t that taking an interest just a tad too far?
Maybe there’s a self-help group out there somewhere?
Finns: “Obama has his oriental side. He lived there for some 6 of his formative years. His mum spent half of her life in Indonesia. Obama has an Indonesian step father and half sister. he is very closed to his half sister. in oriental culture you don’t confuse your uncle with your grand uncle. Never, never, and never. ”
I call you on complete bullshit Finns. Apart from the fact that Obama is recalling an uncle from the obscure eastern parts of KANSAS – not Java and may (just perhaps) not be influenced by Indonesian cultural registers.
In any case, which oriental culture are you talking about Finns? I have direct experience of “oriental culture”. My wife is Vietnamese/Chinese. Cousins are also brothers. Strangers are called “uncle” out of respect. There is certainly no distinction, in my experience, between uncles and great uncles. There isn’t even a word in Mandarin for “Great Uncle” and I would be surprised if there was one in Indonesian.
Anyway, the distinction he got wrong is the distinction between two different concentration camps – not between liberating a camp and being greeted by a nice girl with flowers. The only point he got seriously wrong was that his uncle’s troops didn’t liberate the camp – it had been liberated already by an uprising led by Jewish communists in the camp. So Obama’s great uncle merely arrived to witness the aftermath. I wait to see Clinton or McCain make THAT correction.
622
Jen
It turns them on Jen, getting spanked for being Hillary losers. Yeah, it’s weirdy weird stuff, but hey, they get off on it, and it’s not doing anyone any harm, is it?
616
Diogenes #616
“Ron @ 609
It’s not a major point but I think it’s worth remembering that the Holocaust was not only a Jewish tragedy. Many other groups were exterminated like the mentally ill, alcoholics, homosexuals and gypsies.”
Diogenes , unlike others here I have no problem with you having 5 or 6 degrees and me none , but perhaps with respect you’ve got too much knowledge learned and missed the big picure & I’m not being srcastic . I remeber a long te ago of a figure of about 12 million in those camps of which about 6 million were j.e.ws. Your refernce to the other 6 million or of the geogrphy of adjoining camps may be good info but its irrelevant and not the 3 crucual points at issue
One , that Obama did say it for political reason for ‘j.e.wish voters but it concerned 6 million deceased. Hell 10,000 Yanks solders probably passed via those campsbut they (including Obama’s Uncle) aren’t important , its the ones who were not alive , including 6 mill. j.e.ws. sick & should be condemned
Two , did the Uncle spend the whole war till 1945 in the US just get ‘parachuted into those camps for the day ? NO , he served BEFORE then through Germnay 7 earlier thru France or whereever. Obama didn’t mention the 99% of his Uncle’s fighting , just he 1% , the j.e.wis.h connect. Can you see how cynically deliverate it was
Third and lesser , he iether lied or doesn’t know his Uncles facts sdespite being prepared to air it publicly in a US POTUS election , whether a lie or cann’t get facts right , bad bad but not on the scale of the first 2 above
626
Robert Bollard
You just put that in a lingo the kid (Finnster) understands! LOL
Kirri-
they may go blind.
In fact, they already have.
This thread went off the rails 7 pages ago LOL
But, surely pornography and Bill Clinton go hand in hand?
Evening wok watchers
Ronron given that
‘the snoby “elitists” contribution to election mathematics , butterfly style , all blank and it still doesn’t add up.’
And that you
‘ can sit on a ile akk day & coincidently dump it to pancho’ and ‘won’t complikate with yous here barbarian-ism 4 decimals “obama barbarian barometer” to convet to % lingo Hillary with her existing solid is now seeing new cracks in the McCain’s further opening up to her & solid. the tabanacle of bama’
Whilst we
‘Obamabotic pooppy cherubs neber listen yous cuse unike yous comaparatively gentile dwalfy prork barreling’
Then surely the real question is
where did Al ‘thinkskin’ Capone come from? anti Amerian rose pots with leafy tyres or TI n woks?
Fender’s Blue Butterfly a clue. Coming to a flower near you.
http://www.ecotrust.org/ncc/images/ncc_niches/Fender’s_Blue_Butterfly_Design_Web_sm.jpg
#626 – RB, [There is certainly no distinction, in my experience, between uncles and great uncles] – go and ask your wife and her relatives. i just hope you are still married to her after the asking.
btw; it’s not great uncle, it’s grand uncle.
Latest poll: Obama beats McCain in Ohio!
There goes another rationale for making Billary the nominee.
Around and around we go.
Say William, I don’t suppose you fancy placing a ban on all “Hillary v Obamabot” talk after the race is officially declared? Say… by June 10 everyone has to either get it all out of their systems or find themselves banned? Maybe even the world ‘Hillary’ could go in your spam filter?
Sure, it will kill the conversation threads by approximately 50%. But that probably won’t bother you too much either. I swear every time I log on at night the same things are being regurgitated.
I don’t think I can stomach five months of ‘Hillary would have done a better job of handling that situation’ type comments…
Where’s my dog?
631
codger
By George, I think you’ve got it!
(And if it’s contagious, can you NOT pass it on to anyone else? LOL)
635
Catrina
You must need a blind dog…or, weren’t you a blind dog, or…something?
Max at 634
Oh, tell me about it – it’s like being at the end of a long night – the sky is getting just a little bit lighter but the sun hasn’t risen just yet.
And, if they seat the Michigan and Florida delegates, and allocate them in the way Hillary prefers, she still comes up short LOL
After June 3, watch for the flood of so far undeclared SDs for Obama!
KR at 637
For a while I was visually challenged.
Kirribilli Removals, Catrina, Max etc: Have a good night, off to bed!
Cheers!
Good night Progressive!
Robert
#626
“So Obama’s great uncle merely arrived to witness the aftermath. ”
Well Obama’s Uncle’s contribution was zero wasn’t it.
So where’s your punchline Robert. Why did the savvy Obama say it in a POTUS election ?
Why Obama didn’t mention the OTHER 99% of his Uncle’s fighting in Germany and France ? Why just the 1% coincidently the 1% the j.e.wis.h connect.
Robert you should be sayin the punchline , Obama even you shouldn’t have said anything about the Mr Unc or that what he said was tacky politically motiveated , now professor extraordinaire of all things non barbarian to you
ps
ps
(talking about whether it was hisUncle or Geat Ucle , or which Camp is an extermiation one or if it was Austerwitz or another are red herrings of words)
FINNS your original claim that Obama was tacky 7 sickly to bring it up and then couldn’t get the corrct camp stands
This should be a good read. David Inglesias the US Attorney from New Mexico who was appointed by and then sacked by Bush is spilling them. He joins the other Few Good Men. Bush’s behaviour is exactly the sort of thing Barry has repeatedly pledged to change. Let’s hope he does. The book is called:
“In Justice: Inside the Scandal That Rocked the Bush Administration”
Iglesias has long served in the Navy as part of the JAG corps. One of his earliest cases, about an assaulted Marine in Guantanamo Bay, became the basis for the movie A Few Good Men. When Bush chose him to become the U.S. Attorney for New Mexico, it was a dream come true. He was a core member of Karl Rove’s idealized Republican Party of the future — handsome, Hispanic, evangelical, and a military veteran. The dream came to an abrupt end when Senator Pete Domenici improperly called Iglesias, wanting him to indict high-level Democrats before the 2006 elections. When Iglesias refused, the line went dead. Iglesias was fired just weeks later. First, he was devastated. Then, he was angry. Now, he is speaking out.
http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0470261978,descCd-buy.html
Good Night Progressive, really enjoyed your original perspective tonight.
Kerrist, You folk are absolutely unbelievable. All of you. For some of us who can’t follow this as closely as you, an absolute boon. Again, thank you to William, and to his Mum for having him and bringing him up proper.
Goodnight if you’re going ESJ or is that Mr deProgressive
this j/v #623 needs to reread his many debating book he says he has.
You quote Senator Kennedy , lovely words they r , is that all they were to you ?
re- read what you quoted & posted here:
“But a willingness to assume good things about the public ”
What Obama ? , the Ohians etc are ‘bitter’ ‘OR my grandmothe made me cringe’
Obviously never been in a real debating competition , just read books on it
Dare I raise the name Mary Jo Kopechne?
Ron # 628,
I have only one degree actually and tomorrow morning (ALL CHEER) I will become Dr Robert, wear the floppy hat and be condemned for ever as a latte sipping elitist (for all that I prefer a long machiatto). But before I retire to bed to prepare for my ascencion to elitist heaven, let us parse your last post.
Ron, one: “that Obama did say it for political reason for ‘j.e.wish voters but it concerned 6 million deceased. Hell 10,000 Yanks solders probably passed via those campsbut they (including Obama’s Uncle) aren’t important , its the ones who were not alive , including 6 mill. j.e.ws. sick & should be condemned
Ron, two: “did the Uncle spend the whole war till 1945 in the US just get ‘parachuted into those camps for the day ? NO , he served BEFORE then through Germnay 7 earlier thru France or whereever. Obama didn’t mention the 99% of his Uncle’s fighting , just he 1% , the j.e.wis.h connect. Can you see how cynically deliverate it was”
Ron, three: “he iether lied or doesn’t know his Uncles facts sdespite being prepared to air it publicly in a US POTUS election , whether a lie or cann’t get facts right , bad bad but not on the scale of the first 2 above”
Let us ignore the first para which is completely incomprehensible – it would appear to suggest that someone should be condemned: either 6 million Jews or 10,000 Yanks. That would be the strict grammatical interpretation of the passage, but we ARE talikng Ron here. I think he means that Obama should be condemned for saying what he said for political reasons. Why? Well perhaps the next para may enlighten us. Obama should have delivered a strict itinerary of what his great uncle did BEFORE he arrived at Belsen. What sort of cereal did he prefer? Was he a fan of Billie Holliday? Did he vote for Roosevelt or Wendell Wilkie? What did he do in France before he got to Bavaria? Did he secretly imprison Jews on his way to pretending to liberate them?
Why didn’t Obama mention the bulk of his grand uncle’s fighting? He must of done stuff before he got to the concentration camp! Hell, most of the stuff he did in the war must have involved NOT LIBERATING CONCENTRATION CAMPS. Why doesn’t Obama admit that his great uncle ONLY spent 1% of his time liberating concentration camps?
Robert at 649
Congratulations on the doctorate!
Keep up the good work.
Yes another underemployed Marxist academic – wheres the social usefulness of that?
Uncle Eddy at 651
And from you of all people – the poster boy for the euthanasia movement!
644
jaundiced view
Add that to the pile of kiss-and-tells about the Bush administration JV. That makes two we’ve noted today. Like I said, the end of the Idiot Decider’s reign will be a boon to US publishing.
Here’s a comforting bit of polling analysis from AP that reinforces the view that once the nomination is settled, the Dems with Barry in charge will build on thier lead:
Obama Competitive Against McCain With Key Voters
Barack Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries with women, Catholics and others who will be pivotal in this fall’s presidential election. Yet early polling shows that with several of these groups, he’s competitive when matched against Republican John McCain.
A look at voters who have been closely contested in recent presidential elections—or veered from one party to the other, making them true swing groups—shows a significant number have leaned toward Obama’s rival, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in the primaries. Besides women and Catholics, these include the elderly, the less educated and suburbanites, leading Clinton to argue that this makes her the Democrats’ stronger candidate for the fall campaign.
Yet Obama’s performance with these voters in the primaries doesn’t necessarily mean he’d do poorly with them in the general election, assuming he nails down the last few convention delegates he needs to win the nomination.
Polls this month show the Illinois senator leading McCain among women, running even with him among Catholics and suburbanites and trailing him with people over age 65. Results vary by poll for those without college degrees. And though Obama trails decisively with a group that has shunned him against Clinton—whites who have not completed college—he’s doing about the same with them as the past two Democratic presidential candidates.
Obama is doing well against McCain with groups he has dominated in the primaries. Polls show him ahead of the Arizona senator with young people and college graduates, though the results vary from poll to poll among independents.
To be sure, Obama’s poor performance with some groups in the primaries cannot be ignored. His task of wooing them could be complicated by McCain’s attempts to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters and by the strong emotions Obama’s long-running competition with Clinton has aroused. In recent contests, only half her supporters have said they would vote for Obama against McCain in the fall.
“I won’t vote, or I’ll go for McCain,” said Maureen Brown, 53, of Philadelphia, a Clinton supporter who said she thinks Obama is too inexperienced. “Our options are pretty bad.”
Yet Election Day is more than five months away, with tons of campaign money yet to be spent trying to influence voters like Brown who by then will be more focused on party identification and issues than they are today.
Obama’s aim won’t necessarily be to win majorities with the swing groups Clinton has dominated. Rather, he’ll want to do well enough with them that when combined with the well educated, blacks, the young and other groups that are his strength, he’ll snare the electoral votes he needs.
The article then goes into the details of the analysis:
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D90UGC180&show_article=1
Do you need comforting JV? I thought it was a sure thing for Barry?
649
Robert Bollard
Congratulations from me too Robert, we await your book: “The Bludger Wars” or “How Toffy Torries got their Arses Kicked”!
Obama grabs another two supers.
More details coming soon.
Wed May 28:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=An0NbT7dD4hzjrwq7LWjZKpX_b4F
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080305_president_mccain/
Why “EV Solar Cars” don’t sponsor American Idol
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080122_oil/
More troubling signs this time in Rasmussen
Hilary +1 vs McCain
McCain +4 vs Obama
but at least BHO is going to win the nomination.
KR @ 653 Was the other ‘kiss & tell’ the Scott McClellan book in which Bush’s ‘manipulation’ of information is apparently revealed as rivalling Doctor J Goebbels?
This quote form Rove is a beauty on that:
Karl Rove told Sean Hannity on Fox News’ “Hannity & Colmes”: “This doesn’t sound like Scott. It really doesn’t — not the Scott McClellan I’ve known for a long time. … It sounds like a left-wing blogger. …If he had these moral qualms, he should have spoken up about them. And frankly, I don’t remember him speaking up about these. I don’t remember a single word.”
Perhaps we’ll see Scott here on PB with those credentials.
655 ESJ – [Do you need comforting JV? I thought it was a sure thing for Barry?]
It is a sure thing. I am gloriously cosy in the knowledge of Baz’s imminent ascension to the nomination. I was referring to the general election, because I’ve been saying that the true Dems v GOP vote won’t be apparent until things are settled for the Dems. The comfort is in the analysis I referred to supporting that contention.
Oh, if only that was all it cost! A snippet of an insider account of the Idiot Decider’s regime:
‘ Bush was “clearly irritated, … steamed,” when McClellan informed him that chief economic adviser Larry Lindsey had told The Wall Street Journal that a possible war in Iraq could cost from $100 billion to $200 billion: “‘It’s unacceptable,’ Bush continued, his voice rising. ‘He shouldn’t be talking about that.’”’
…he should have been happy for Lindsey to (mis)underestimate the cost like that!
660
jaundiced view
Obviously Karl just does not ‘get’ moral qualms, being a cross between a crocodile and a hyena, as he is himself.
Superdelegate Update
Obama picks up the endorsement, the first: Colorado DNC members – Pat Waak and the second from Oregon, Meredith Woods-Smith.
Pat Waak had the following to say in his endorsement of Obama:
Meredith Woods-Smith is coming at this subject from another angle – here is an extract of her endorsement:
DCW Rolling Totals:
Obama: 1979, 46 to win (+2)
Clinton: 1780, 245 to win
Projected end-of-contests with Pelosi Factor included:
Obama: 2028, 3 delegates to spare
Clinton: 1823, 202 to win against an ever decreasing pool of 197
Look at the big picture:
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows Democrats leading in states with 200 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When “leaners” are included, the Democrats enjoy a 260-240 Electoral College lead (see summary of recent state-by-state results). Rasmussen Markets data gives Democrats a 62.2 % chance of winning the White House in November (results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants).
…more ‘troubling’ signs for Obama, I guess! LOL
KR 662 – that’s right. In Rove’s case the expression moral qualms uses the alternative ‘qualm’ definition of ’sickness’. As in “When I hear the word morals I feel sick”
665
jaundiced view
As suspected Scott alludes to Rove and Libby involvement in the Plame outing:
“It was in 2005, during a time when attention was focusing on Rove and Libby, and it sticks vividly in my mind. … Following [a meeting in Chief of Staff Andy Card’s office], … Scooter Libby was walking to the entryway as he prepared to depart when Karl turned to get his attention. ‘You have time to visit?’ Karl asked. ‘Yeah,’ replied Libby.
“I have no idea what they discussed, but it seemed suspicious for these two, whom I had never noticed spending any one-on-one time together, to go behind closed doors and visit privately. … At least one of them, Rove, it was publicly known at the time, had at best misled me by not sharing relevant information, and credible rumors were spreading that the other, Libby, had done at least as much. …
“The confidential meeting also occurred at a moment when I was being battered by the press for publicly vouching for the two by claiming they were not involved in leaking Plame’s identity, when recently revealed information was now indicating otherwise. … I don’t know what they discussed, but what would any knowledgeable person reasonably and logically conclude was the topic? Like the whole truth of people’s involvement, we will likely never know with any degree of confidence.” ‘
…’suspicious’ that these two greaseballs were colluding in private?
Nah!
Thanks Catrina @ 663 – excellent finger-on-pulse work – you aren’t a paramedic are you?
SD Meredith Woods-Smith provides in her speech a great example of ‘damned by faint praise’ when sppeaking of Hillary:
As a senator, an advocate and as a candidate for president, she demonstrates the absolute importance and ability of women to lead.
That sentence should be used in year 9 English classes to demonstrate the ‘faint praise’ concept. A great build up all the way to the comma, and then … fizzle.
ESJ There’s a time to speak. Good value for 20c, I thought.
jaundiced view at 667
Got close to the once, but I quickly discovered that the dead are a whole lot more interesting.
close to it, not close to the
Catrina – Well, you would get close to the .
Don’t tell me you’re a silent witness? You know, the sort that look at a dead body on a slab and say things like:
‘Just by looking I can tell that this was a man aged 35-37 called John, having an affair with his secretary’
jaundiced view at 671
Give me the right tools and I’ll tel you who the secretary is married to.
PC @ 570 I wonder if that graph shows higher gas taxes in solid blue states? I read somewhere about a growing alignment between how states vote for POTUS and their state level partisan leanings.
Darn these elitists – he speaks Spanish as well!
http://link.brightcove.com/services/link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1569823378
Catrina @ 672 – The secretary? I’ll gve you a hint then:
Well, Angelina wasn’t happy. Her relationship was doomed and when the temp firm sent her to work as secretary to Johnat a large iner city firm, he was so considerate in settling her into the job, and generally concerned for her welfare. He always asked her how she was ‘going’ in the mornings and seemed to genuinely want to hear what she had to say. He was also terribly good at his job. First she admired him, then appreciated his caring nature and little kindnesses, and then one day he invited her to lunch – just the two of them. Well, that first afternoon led into the next day, and by the morning came the realisation that she was over Gerry, and that her life would now be changed forever. She had known she wasn’t really happy, but this amazing thing with John had opened her eyes. The rest of her liife seemed a wonderful prospect… to be continued.
Of course Gerry wasn’t his real name
Hilary Clinton is out there with more of her bold-faced lies.
Either that or her campaign staff are being selective with the evidence.
Which one is it – lying to the American people, or just plain ignorant. My money is on the former.
jaundiced view at 675
Shame on you – your watching day time TV!
But before you skulk away into the darkness – tell me what happens next …. I need to know!
Here is one view on how the RBC meeting will play out on the 31 st.
Can’t say I disagree.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/27/roland.martin/index.html
Catrina @ 674 Did he learn that little bit of Spanish for the ad? I only knew he could speak Bahasa as a second language.
What happens next? Well, what always happens really. Nothing new, nothing exalting or thrilling or .. even mildly satisfying. The problem was that Angelina’s intensity was overwhelming, so white-hot, that John felt as if he had unleashed a tremendous power over which he had no control. In one way that was gratifying, because he was clearly responsible for her emotional release from a dark recess to which she would hopefully never have to return. On the other hand the handcuffs, which she had placed on his wrists while he was asleep and secured to the Hills Hoist by high tensile wire hawser, was an element that concerned him as to the future. While fresh and different in its way, it posed practical difficulties he felt they needed to discuss fairly soon. … to be continued in episode 3
jaundiced view at 680
*sob* *sob*
jaundiced view at 680
Re. the Spanish – I have absolutely no idea – but I do know that delivering a pitch in a foreign language is not an easy thing to do.
Catrina @ 679 – The hypocrisy of the idea of seating the FL/MI delegates is nicely distilled by Martin there. If he’s right about the insider saying Hillary has put herself before the party then I hope that gets around the SD’s quickly. It should spook them into coming out earlier. Because THEY don’t put Hillary before the party. Not one of them. They have a keen vested interest in the party winning in November.
I know – here’s a tissue …
jaundiced view at 683
*sniff*
Catrina – Spanish – I don’t know if it’s that hard – I never have a problem ordering beers and tapas at Capitan Torres’.
Well, maybe later in the meal communication difficulties sometimes arise
But really, think he must speak Spanish fairly fluently, because the delivery is so relaxed and natural looking.
Poor distant, “disgruntled” Scotty. At least he’s put the boot in to gain maximum oomph for his new pulpy. But he has broken omerta and shouldn’t venture out alone on cold dark nights. Those hit and runs are a terrible thing.
Quote of the Day
“Scott we now know is disgruntled about his experience at the White House… It’s sad. This is not the Scott we knew.”
– White House spokeswoman Dana Perino, quoted by NBC News, on former colleague Scott McClellan’s new book, What Happened.
(political.wire)
Hi EC @ 687 – [Those hit and runs are a terrible thing.]
KR said earlier there are 2 ‘outers’ today apparently. The other one was the former New Mexico attorney, who also has some bad things to say about Bush & Co. in a new book.
There will no doubt be 2 nutters “escape” from maximum security institutions, fully armed, in the next couple of months, who have swallowed their instructions, but not their medication.
Good cartoons as usual while I’ve been away, by the way.
Catrina -
Do you think I could run a drum in the Edward George Bulwer-Lytton prize with my writing?? :
http://www.bulwer-lytton.com/
In fact, for an appalling writer, he said something that could be used here as a guiding light most days:
“The true spirit of conversation consists in building on another man’s observation, not overturning it.” – Bulwer-Lytton
686
jaundiced view at 686
Was thinking the same thing – in particular, the second half of the add – he is just very comfortable in his skin.
See ya
jv at 690
take care
Thanx, jv, Scotty should be all over the chat shows this week with a smile and a shoe shine like any good American would. He’s only just 40, got a quick wit and a killer smile, wiped BushCo like a dirty a*se while they still hold (lame schmuck) power and has taken his shot at redemption and salvaged a bit of credibility before the rest of the vermin scamper from the GOPper corpse.
Actually couldn’t help liking the guy even when he was obviously lying.
That takes talent!
To the Toy Boys, Uncle Eddy, the Gardner, and Ron.
What the political world will look like a week from today.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/24845626#24845626
The Ugly Duckling, the weak link in Rudd’s chain, the Man from the Swanee River, is looking better and better each day. He just did an excellent interview on Skynews. Go Swanee.
Have a good day to all, in particular to RB, just dont lose your hat in the wind.
Finns, you’re getting good at diversions. At the weekend Sydney Swans; now Wayne Swan. Though I have to agree he’s growing in the job and exceeding expectations.
Agree also with the congrats to RB.
Catrina,
Many do not regard the NBC news as a reliable transport vehicle for the truth.
http://www.foxnews.com/video2/video08.html?maven_referralObject=673124&maven_referralPlaylistId=&sRevUrl=http://www.foxnews.com/oreilly/index.html
Latest Gallop confirms that Hillary more likely to win the swing States in November.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107539/Hillary-Clintons-SwingState-Advantage.aspx
Bill Clinton has the bald-faced temerity to use the expression decent and honorable :
“We should find a way to let everybody vote and have all the votes be counted and have a decent and honorable slate of delegations from Florida and Michigan,”
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/
when the facts are that:
*she once said the states wouldn’t matter because they broke the rules.
*many of her supporters on the Democratic National Committee’s rules committee supported the stripping of delegates in Michigan and Florida.
*her chief supporter in Michigan, Gov. Jennifer Granholm, a Democrat, signed the bill into law that allowed the state to move up its primary.
*Clinton and her supporters now discount all of that and act as if they were always champions of the “disenfranchised” voters in Florida and Michigan. But they weren’t. And the record is clear.
*Only when it became apparent that she needed the states’ delegates to close the gap with Obama did she change her tune.
*She said one thing in Iowa and New Hampshire and now is saying something else.
*The Clintonites don’t want any compromises in Michigan and Florida. They want the results to stay the same, even though Obama’s name wasn’t on the ballot in Michigan.
*All candidates signed an agreement not to campaign in those two states.
*The Wall Street Journal and other media outlets say the Clinton camp doesn’t care.
*Her biggest backer, former President Clinton, is telling her to stay in it until the end, hoping to persuade superdelegates to switch and give her the nomination.
The DNC rules committee will meet May 31. Expect a bloodbath. Trust me; there will be nothing nice about that meeting. The Obama camp better not let its guard down. The Clinton camp is gearing up for a protracted battle. Folks, this is for all the marbles, and feelings — and party — be damned.
And Bill is still able to bring himself to use the words decent and honorable in relation to this transparent soaring hypocrisy.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/27/roland.martin/index.html
At least this tawdry Clinton charade will be over in a week. All locked up at last. (see Catrina’s msnbc link at #693)
697 One thing that’s been interesting me about the difference between Clinton and Obama in match-ups with McCain in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida is how much Clinton’s extra support seems to come from women. If you look at the crosstabs in swing state polls like Quinnipiac and Survey USA, and some others RCP has had listed, Obama and Clinton seem to appeal to different sorts of men, but the overall level of male support is similar. The really marked difference is with women. Clinton just blitzes McCain with female voters in those states; Obama doesn’t – he wins by not much or not at all. Perhaps this suggests that a female VP pick like Sebelius (or Clinton herself) might not be such a bad idea, though it’s a big stretch to say that all those potential female Democrats will come flocking back just because Obama picks a woman. But some might. Trouble is, McCain might try to match Obama if Obama picked Sebelius and the GOP was genuinely worried about the female “identity vote” or whatever it is. Which convention is earlier, ie which side has to pick first if they both leave it to the convention to pick a VP?
Catrina’s projections:
Clinton: 1823 delgeates, 202 to win against an ever decreasing pool of 197
And the reason we are still discussing this as a contest is???
Taegan Goddard doesn’t think there will be fireworks at the Rules Committee meeting on Saturday about FL & MI delegates:
“Previewing Saturday’s DNC Rules Committee Meeting”
There is no way the DNC will let a rules committee decide the victor of the nomination.
…
The math doesn’t work for her now and won’t work for her after Saturday. either.
link for #701
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/previewing-saturdays-dnc-rules.html
What will George W Bush’s Presidential Library consist of?
A few colouring books?
LOL
696
Greeensborough Growler
Couldn’t help but notice as I scrolled past you Gruffy, but you’re quoting a link to Faux News to disparage NBC?
ROFLOL
The Idiot Decider has been hammering GE (who own NBC) lately because they do not like the coverage.
That’s good enough proof for me that they are getting some things right at least! LOL
697
Greeensborough Growler
I do love your short one line posts Gruffy, no insults to wade through! LOL
But look at this, a Gallup poll to support an argument that Hillary could do better in November against McCain.
Let’s apply this to the Kentucky Derby, with Eight Bells (or whatever it was called, Hillary’s filly, running second)
Polls show that EB will run faster in the November Derby and beat Old Nag McCain.
Spot the problem here: Big Brown just beat EB, so she doesn’t get to run in November under the rules of this knockout competition.
Besides, EB has been put down, so it’s completely academic! LOL
Seriously, this stuff is tosh because it asks people’s opinions before the nomination is finished and people are telling pollsters what they want to happen. So, I voted for Hillary, not Obama, therefore, I think Hillary will win.
Let’s see what happens when Obama is declared winner (in a week it’s all over red rover), and then assess the state of play in a two horse race without the overlay of people’s attachment to an outcome which cannot, even at this stage, be even considered a remote possibility.
This game of the Clinton’s ie let’s change the rules, heavy the supers with “I’m the best candidate”, when clearly the voters and the supers have already decided differently can be summed up in one word: DESPERATION.
It’s finished, HillBilly, move on.
KR,
If you dig a bit deeper,
1. The connections between the owners of NBC and Iran do need some explaining.
2. NBC is well known as the news outlet of choice for the pro-Obama forces.
Can agree that Fox has it’s own prejudices. However, just because you don’t like the source of the questions, does not mean the questions are not legitimate.
It is important to keep natures balance in the park.
703
Progressive
A special edition of “My Pet Goat”, printed with the cover upside down, and with George’s thumbprint inside.
A continuous video of George wrestling with the English language (and losing badly)
What’s left of Iraq, in an ancient urn, plundered from the Baghdad Museum. (Inscribed with “Powell: You break it, you own it”)
In the bathroom, the Neoconservative’s Middle East Agenda toilet rolls, which make for funny reading.
His dunce’s cap.
OK, Gruffy:
“1. The connections between the owners of NBC and Iran do need some explaining.”
Start explaining.
Kirribilli: Does George W even know how to read? I think Laura does that for him LOL
KR,
http://ianschwartz.com/2008/01/11/video-is-ge-doing-business-with-iran/
There’s more if you want to inform yourself.
699
Molesworth
And there Mole, (endearing creature in Wind in the Willows), you bring up a good point.
Not only is Hillary strong with women, but more particularily, older women. Imagine this cohort in November, and ask yourself how many older women will reverse probably a lifetime of Democrat support to vote for McCain?
Sorry, but that ain’t gonna happen en masse.
Maybe a few out of sour grapes they didn’t see their horse in the race, but much fewer than the new voters Obama will pull in.
Some others may protest by not voting, but between these two possibilities I just do not imagine in being a huge negative for Obama in November.
Banjo plunkers, well, he ain’t gettin’ many of them, but across the board older women who would otherwise vote Clinton, nup, they’ll swing back between now and November, for sure.
GG
Which bit of Russert’s analysis did you disagree with? He said
1. Obama will get the PDs he needs from the remaining three contests
2. FL/MI will mean he needs an extra 40
3. These 40 are locked-in and will come out when everyone has had their vote
It seems pretty likely to me.
KR,
So you didn’t like the numbers in the “Gallop” Poll? Best to try an trash it then, eh?
GG – there are many problems with GE, but that O’Reilly piece that you link is a bit of a hatchet job. Fox lackeys having a go at NBC ones hold little credibility. And as far as ideological dishonesty and moral compromise (over the last decade) goes, no one can hold a candle to Fox.
Before y’all count her out…
“SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico (AP) — Pop star Ricky Martin is backing Hillary Rodham Clinton ahead of Puerto Rico’s primary on Sunday. The Grammy-winning singer on Wednesday said Clinton has shown a commitment to the needs of the Hispanic community. Martin is one of the territory’s top-selling artists, whose hits including “She Bangs” and “Livin’ la Vida Loca.”"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080528/ap_on_el_pr/2008_race_rundown_36
Diogenes,
They are all possibilities. But, every day we read about “final nails”, icing on the cake, she’s dead and buried etc etc. Every morning, Hillary is still there. This report is just more of the same.
Also, would hardly expect Obama’s news source of choice to be across how team Hillary will continue the battle from here.
As always, I am happy to let the game continue and see where the cards fall.
Pancho,
See my 706.
710
Greensborough Growler
Hahaha!
That’s your argument against NBC to disprove Russert’s assertion that the Dem race is over next week!
Gruffy old son, let’s walk you through this! Firstly, lets kill the silliness about GE and the Bin Laden Group.
Here’s some facts about the Bush family and it’s bin Laden Group connections:
Bush Family connections to Carlyle:
# George H. W. Bush, former U.S. President, Senior Advisor to the Carlyle Asia Advisory Board from April 1998 to October 2003.
# George W. Bush, current U.S. President. Was appointed in 1990 to the Board of Directors of one of Carlyle’s first acquisitions, an airline food business called Caterair, which Carlyle eventually sold at a loss. Bush left the board in 1992 to run for Governor of Texas.
The Carlyle Group is a global private equity investment firm, based in Washington, D.C., with more than $81.1 billion of equity capital under management.[1] The firm operates four fund families, focusing on leveraged buyouts, venture & growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance investments. The firm employs more than 575 investment professionals in 21 countries with several offices in North America, South America, Europe, Asia and Australia; its portfolio companies employ more than 286,000 people worldwide. Carlyle has over 1200 investors in 68 countries.
The firm is well known for the dozens of world political figures and luminaries it has employed. Some of these figures, such as George H. W. Bush and his Secretary of State James A. Baker III, have generated controversy stemming from allegations of conflicts of interest.
October 26, 2001
The Saudi family of Osama bin Laden is severing its financial ties with the Carlyle Group, a private investment firm known for its connections to influential Washington political figures, executives who have been briefed on the decision said today.
”This wasn’t done because anyone thought they did anything wrong,” the Carlyle executive said. ”We didn’t do it with relish or great glee. We felt and they felt that it was something that was causing more attention than it deserved, so we both decided it made sense, given the circumstances, to liquidate the position.”
In many ways, the move by the bin Laden family reflects the problems the family has faced since Sept. 11, as it has struggled with tensions between its global business interests and its connection to Mr. bin Laden, one of 53 siblings. The family, which publicly condemned the terrorist attack, disowned Mr. bin Laden in the 1990’s and maintains that it has no relationship with him anymore.
NYT
KR, why do you bother. If Hillary fans have proven one thing, it is that they care about all the numbers except the ones that count- the delegate numbers. They can sit in their corners and chant “electoralvote” and “gallup” doesnt change the fact that this contest is over. I’d suggest you stop giving their posts the attention and response they are seeking and just focus on the Obama victory
So, in ‘early 2002′(as the breathless beat up you quote puts it) if GE was doing business with the Bin Laden Group, it was shortly after they’d sold up their stake, on amicable terms, with a major US investment company which had Bush Snr was on the board.
So, pray tell, what is the ‘point’ of this bit of trivia?
To put the name GE and ‘bin Laden’ in the same sentence! LOL
This is childish stuff Gruffy, but glad to see it gets your conspiracy theory juices flowing! LOL
You aren’t very clued up about anything are you? It shows.
GG – I would argue that Fox attempting to delegitimate their main competitor through a current-affairs type hit segment does problematise their questioning and motive. Particularly when done by someone like O’Reilly with a track record. In any case, I think we’re probably getting more off topic than the loud man himself.
I’ll give you a little clue Gruffy (free of charge!):
When an article starts with a title “IS GE doing business with Iran?” and then quotes some twaddle from ‘early 2002′ about GE and the Bin Laden Group you know instantly what is going on.
Here’s how, (now pay attention):
The Bin Laden Group is a Saudi based company, it would only be known to most people in the West because of the name. (Also NOTE: it is NOT Iranian! LOL)
So when a story says one thing, and then tries to tarnish one name (GE) with another (bin Laden) although there’s no sinister connection, YOU KNOW you are dealing with utter flatulent rightwing gasbaggery.
I’ve got far better reasons for criticising GE on ‘creative accounting’ (think Enron), but way out of our range for here.
713
Greensborough Growler
Ain’t a matter of ‘not liking’ them Gruffy, as they’re pretty much what I would expect.
Hillary won states say Hillary is the best candidate. (well blow me down! LOL)
In philosophy 101 we used to call that a ‘tautology’.
Look it up.
There’s nothing wrong with the bin Laden group that isn’t wrong with most megacorporations. They are a huge construction company who squeezed the black sheep of the family out of the door as he was a wacko and have largely broken ties with him. He is after all still family.
Pancho,
“In any case, I think we’re probably getting more off topic than the loud man himself”.
You talking about KR?
And from last night,
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,358981,00.html
On a different note, how much of a scumbag is Scott McClelland? Spends his whole time in the White House tearfully defending the noble Bush adminstration, then dumps on them for a dime in an ‘expose’ that just says all the obvious things about 3 years too late.
I mean, the Bush administration are bastards and everything, but really, this only proves what a spineless character McClelland is. I almost feel sorry for Bush. Lying with dogs i guess.
Good point Francis. McClelland really needs to be sent to Guantanamo and waterboarded until he realises his thought crimes.
726
Greensborough Growler
HINT Gruffy:
Karl Rove (as in Turd Blossom) is complaining on Faux News that NBC is ‘biased’!
ROFLOF
Are you mad?
No, don’t bother to answer that, it may incriminate you!
Francis and TW
I disagree. Would you prefer he did Bush’s dirty work and never corrected the record? At least this way Bush, Rove and Cheney are again shown, with incontrovertable evidence from the inside, to be the despicable evil creeps we know and detest. That’s better than hiding in a hole moping like Powell.
KR,
Oh, to live in your simplistic world where every thing is black and white, the goodies and the baddies are easy to distinguish because they wear the right network hat and you can deal with divirgent opinion with the swipe of a smear.
Good for you.
Francis-
I’m surprised that you’re surprised! The morality of the Bush administration and it’s supporters has been non existant since they took office.
I expect a veritable plague of rats running amok and squealing thier lungs out as they try to save their own skins the closer we get to the end of the Bush regime.
I’m wih Diogenes. Would rather him come out now than not at all. After all, we dont what reservations he may have expressed at the time behind the scenes. Obviously, if he had any real integrity, he would have quit at the time
Wed May 28: Political Piercings; see also under Stigmata and Body Art.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Ahat.1r.uuAcOeNViwamAuNR_b4F
———————-
So Francis, gliding in at 727, what you’re suggesting is that every BushCo insider should stfu and cop it sweet, that Americans shouldn’t be told the truth about their President until they’re mature enough to appreciate it perhaps?
Not all Americans are aware, as you and I are, that “the Bush administration are bastards and everything,”. My understanding is that full 28% reckon that The Imbecile and god pow-wow on a daily basis and that Dubya is one helluva guy. A right regular dude. Especially now that he’s quit golfin’ and has lots more time on his hands fer brush-cuttin’ ‘n’ bike ridin’ ‘n’ pattin’ Barney ‘n’ stuff.
If nothing else, Francis, these people need to be wised up. Mercifully, not all bad mugs are beyond educating:)
Go Scotty, make a motza!
EC,
Where did you stand on Mark Latham’s Diary? Just curious.
Clinton supporter- Rendell: very unlikely that she will win. OK, the truth is she cant and wont win, but at least is this a touch of reality creeping into the Clinton camp??
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/05/28/rendell-very-unlikely-clinton-will-win/
EC at 734, isnt it quite amazing how even 1/3 of Americans support Bush?? I mean, he doesnt even have the economy thing to cling to like JWH did
Wed May 28:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=Aj4ccilxBhFTf61pE.qITDVT_b4F
Don’t worry, she ain’t done yet. Saw a scene like this in Terminator 2. Easy peasy. Before you know it the melty bits start to…. coalesce and…… transmogrify into…….
aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!
Think it was in Berkeloew’s Bookshop, Growler, while checking the jacket on a high shelf bargain.
EC,
Was that before or after you fell out of your ivory tower?
Robert & FINNS
AuschtwitzSelectiveWordsGate.
Lets unravel Obama’s statement at a Memorial Day appearance in New Mexico, “that a uncle helped liberate the Nazi death camp at Auschwitz during World War II.”
Taken his words as ar , Obamsa savvy politican made calculated publicity of his great uncle’s WW2 liberation of a j.e.ws from a Nazi concentration camp re-raising into the POTUS election the 6 million holocaust j.e.ws dead. Purpose was to win j.ews votes. Tacky & sickly , worthy of condemnation
The Memorial day was for fallen soldiers. It was natural for Obama (politically) to say great uncle fought in WW2 and if Obama achose to add great uncle faught in Franch & Germany and if further detail was neded to mention some known war firefightt towns.or campaigns but not little known “Ohrdruf’” Obama did not do this , instead Obama only mentioned liberating Nazi Austwitz concentration camp
Unlike ‘oz’ , the holocaust & especially the emotive “Austwitz” camp is ingrained in the US psche particularly policiticans. The savvy Obama would clearly remember if his great uncle did in fact fight at Austwitz & never forget it. Conversely , the savvy Obama would clearly know if his great uncle did not fight at Austwitz and would not be able to accidently say great uncle fought when he did not. But Obama said great uncle did fight at Austwitz (since “corrected” by Obama spokeman to the publicly unknown “Ohrdruf’” camp)
The finl irony , the great uncle Charlie Payne is the brother of Obama’s white grandmother , yes that same white grandmother who Obam atold 300 million on TV at Philly “ but a woman (Grandmother) who onc confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me CRINGE ”
Obama seems to make a habit of using his family publicly , grandmother (trash her) , grandmothers brother (use him re the 6 million gased , but not at Austwitz)
AuschwitzSelectiveWordsGate., selectively highlighted the holocaust , forgot great uncle’s combat at normative wartime battles , coincidently mentioned the most emotive of all concentration camps Austwitz , conveniently omitted the publicly unknown “Ohrdruf’”, and used that denigrated grandmother again (her brother) . Hillary for all her faults , a decent Lady. Obama , an indecent man indeed
http://www.truthdig.com/cartoon/item/20080528_mccains_solution/
re: Latham’s diary-
wonder when some of Howard’s lot will start spilling the beans.
such nobility!! She’s really doing this to help.
‘Clinton also argues she isn’t hurting the party by staying in the race; she’s helping it. “I believe that if Senator Obama and I both make our case—and all Democrats have the chance to make their voices heard—everyone will be more likely to rally around the nominee,” she writes”
Slate.
of course Jen, it’s all about the party, not Hillary. How could we have not seen that???
yes, her running around slagging Obama will really help her supporters rally around him.
Jen
Just remember. It’s all over in less than a week if what Hillary says about letting the people vote and then rallying around the nominee is true. And Hillary would never ever lie would she?
Bluff or not?
“I was just watching Verdict with Dan Abrams. They were discussing the recent opinion of DNC lawyers which said that the Rules and Bylaws Committee does not have the power to restore 100% of the Michigan and Florida delegates. They can, at most, restore 50%. Wes Clark was on, and Abrams asked Clark if Hillary would take this to the convention if she didn’t get 100% of what she was demanding. He said she would. And then, he said it again. For all of you who ever thought that Hillary was going to give up, you are about to be in for a rude awakening.”
http://dailykos.com/story/2008/5/28/215616/562/264/524518
Faustina’s Folly:
“Clinton campaigns as if she knows she will leave some Democrats with bad feelings. That’s the Clinton way: Ask forgiveness, not permission. But every day, as more superdelegates trickle to Obama’s side, it becomes a surer bet that she will not win. She and her family enjoy good health and fabulous wealth. They’ll be fine—unless, while losing this race for the nomination, Hillary Clinton also loses her soul. ”
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/20080528_the_disintegration_of_hillary_clinton/
ec
How can you lose something you don’t have?
Looks like all those “It will be over within a week statements” will go the way of all the other predictions of Hillary’s demise.
Well kiddies, it is a very long trip and all your plaintive cries of “Are we there yet?” won’t get us to the destination any quicker.
GG: You honestly think the DNC will award the nomination to Hillary?
You’re living in fantasy land.
GG – I’d still be betting on early to mid June. Surrogates still need to keep their poker faces on, as much as anything. But you are right – this has been a really really really long journey…
As the Ivory Towers swayed today & almost tiped over in the stratosphere heights as the tweedie elitists did their 10,000 stimulations hip hop butterfly dance anticipating their tainted victory. And what a dance it has been today , not up to the class integrity of a corrobboree , but complete with one hand self pats and self admirations
But the pets are upset , there is yet no victory , Hillary is still annoyingly defiant , then there’s those pesky MI & FL 2.3 million voters a hurtful embarrassment of democracy so trashed , and then there’s Andy electoral maps every day , today Hillary 327 to 194 and Obama 266 to 248 , oh definitely do not taulk about Andys maps or even 38’s
And the annoyense grows to bitteress , surely the SD’s won’t read Andy’s maps they’ve got warts & all , but they do your fear is true All SD’s daily dailey those simple Andys maps and the fundamental message all SD’s know is Hillary is the bry far more electable. And that is the snoby butterfly fear , hence yes all SD’s anytime can switch , and should So now the butteryfly elitists are bitterfly butterflys frustrated all political nous points to Hillary , the nominee..
But Alfonso Chicago Obama intimidation ‘black’ intimidation of SD’s endorsements has worked so to rules meeting intimidation in hand for the FL & MI state officials the final dustbinning of democracy And Obamabots fume at the truth of the abov
Dio, yeah, the thought did occur. On a “when you ain’t got nuthin’, you ain’t got nutin’ to lose” basis, you are absolutely correct.
I think we need to make the distinction between “it’s over” and “Hillary concedes”.
It has realistically been over since Feb when Obama won 11 states to 0.
It has absolutely been over since N.Carolina and Indiana.
When Hillary concedes has become a whole different sideshow with a life of its own.
The nomination for the Democratic candidate has been over for a long time.
It is Obama v McCain. All the realists, from Fox News to MSNBC and everyone in between, acknowlege this.
Somewhere out in the wilderness are the HillBilly delusionists.
Guys! I think we have misjudged her- which means the SD’s will probably realise they have been a little harsh on the well-meaning and self-sacrificing Hillary.
She actually wanted to pull put in Feb- actually she never wanted yto run at all, but she felt it would be better for everyone if she did so, to help Obama win the nomination against the odds- toughen him up a bit.
Having done such a fabulous job though it is likely that the SD’s will turn a round and beg her to stay, which of course is the last thing she wants, but she would do it for her country.
sigh – what a woman.
jen, more love than this hath no woman than to sacrifice herself in such fashion for the good of her Party.
“what a woman”, indeed!
731
Greensborough Growler Says:
May 29th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
KR,
“Oh, to live in your simplistic world where every thing is black and white, the goodies and the baddies are easy to distinguish because they wear the right network hat and you can deal with divirgent opinion with the swipe of a smear.
Good for you.”
…oh that’s hysterical!
You quote a guy who’s a top Republican insider, the hand to Bush’s glove puppet, and you don’t think he just might be a little bit on the side of the ‘baddies’?
Are you for real? Have you so lost perspective that you are even assuming that Karl ROve is not the most partisan political player in the whole of America?
What are you smokin’ kid?
And you’ve got the freakin’ gall to call my world view ’simplistic’! LOL
You don’t have a bloody clue do you? Play in the sandpit Gruffy, coz you ain’t big enough for the real world yet.
Al Giordano at The Field weighs in on the state of the Democratic nomination
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/?p=1279
While there’s a bit of misogyny flying.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SjxY9rZwNGU
748
Pancho
The SWOT team will be coming down on ropes from the helicopters to drag her off well before the convention Pancho, I’d lay money on it.
She’s just trying to raise more cash before the boyz arrive to shut her down.
Mid June by the latest.
If anyone thinks the Supers will stand by and watch her walk into the convention with the suicide vest packed with explosives and ball bearings, you don’t know how the political survival instinct operates in the real world.
She might be screaming “GOD I’M GREAT” now, but she won’t get into the convention to press the button and yell it.
Watch.
#609 – Ron Says:[Diogenes , Obama suporters spent a WHOLE day “outraged about the Hillary/ RFK comment , where Hllary showed poor judgement over one persons death ,so I find it odd you are the one defending this Obama who wants to play politics with 6 million ‘je’ws deaths]
Ron, you little gem here actually got me thinking of this big curio. Our lady friend made her gaffe that has ended the world on the 24/5/08. As Paul Simon & his friend Garfunkel once commented on the treatment of Hillary:
She was slandered,
Libeled,
I hear the words I never heard in the Bible.
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=qx6_0Do0qGQ.
She was accused, as you have rightly pointed out, for trying to benefit from the death of one person. But why Obama, with his hawaiian coolness, indonesian savviness, harvard minted cleverness and chicago refined oiliness, 3 days later, yes only 3 days later, made a similar gaffe, yes similar gaffe, that tried to benefit from the death of 6 or more millions.
There’s more, his gaffe completely took the headline and pressure off Hillary. She was the damsel in great distressed, but who should horsey up to rescue her. None other than our Black Prince on his White Steed (hope it is not jen’s horsey that he has been ridin’). So the score is Hillary 1 Obama 1.
Ron, please accuse me of being cynical here. After the kind words of Lady Huff to Hillary in the last week or so, do you think our Black Prince is trying to tell our Lady in distressed something here. You know, nudge, nudge, wink, wink, ahhhh i kinda need you in November. What is 6 millions between friends.
Superdelegate Update
Since my last update late yesterday, Obama has picked up the endorsement of super delegate DNC Wayne Kinney from Oregon. This brings the changes for the 28 May to Obama+3, Clinton 0.
DNC League Table (2025 to win)
Obama: 1980 delegates, 45 to win
Clinton: 1780 delegates, 245 to win
(and just 196 superdelegates sitting on the wall)
Catrina’s League Table (post competition with Pelosi Factor)
Obama: 2029 delegates, 4 to spare
Clinton: 1823 delegates, needs 202 to win from a pool of 196.
An extract from Wayne Kinney endorsement ..
You got to love that last sentence.
Jen
#732
“The morality of the Bush administration and it’s SUPPORTERS has been non existant since they took office.”
So all overt Repug supporters have no morality. Thats a big call that i wouldn’t say about all obama supporters , but the Obamabots here’s democracy morality principles are terrible
http://www.time-blog.com/swampland/2008/03/who_didnt_vote_in_the_florida.html
I hope Hillary doesn’t disenfrachise all these poor poor people. It would make me sad. Sad as an abolitionist, feminist, freed slave from Zimbabwe who made this nation great.
KR @ 759,
A “pearler” of self parody.
FINNS
#763
“But why Obama, with his hawaiian coolness, indonesian savviness, harvard minted cleverness and chicago refined oiliness, 3 days later, yes only 3 days later, made a similar gaffe, yes similar gaffe, that tried to benefit from the death of 6 or more millions.”
Yes FINNS , the gall of these elititst now bitterfly butterflys , to spend a WHOLE day of snobymonious outrage at Hillary over one person RFK , and they have not the political decency to condemn the Alfonsono oiliness Chicago Obama of 6 million political expediencys. And Obama got the publicity he so calculatedly intendd. If Obama is nominee. aussies not in snooty Ivory Towers don’t mind the opposition winning if fair , but crooked , vote rigging , ‘black’ intimidation &
indecency “winners’ are regarded as unrespected cheats
Ron- fair point-. I meant supporters as in members of the administration.
btw Grinch –
I thought we’d put the misogyny accusation to bed , particularly when criticism of Hillary comes from a woman. Sisterhood does not guarantee homogenous agreement, sadly for mrs Clinton.
Jen,
I just call it when I see it.
Grinch-
you must have Hillary’s disorder- although rather than ‘misspeaking’ you are ‘misseeing’. Any vision probs lately?? you know there is a possible reason….
#
768
Greensborough Growler Says:
May 29th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
KR @ 759,
A “pearler” of self parody.
…yes Gruffy, you are a self-parody!
We agree on something.
Kirribilli: good news for you mate! Obama now only has to get 45 more delegates!
And, McCain is about to be in a gigantic load of shit:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/29/0429/70874/237/524553
When even Robert Novak is calling it Hillary Agonistes, you just know it’s all over red rover:
Poor taste by the Clintons is matched by poor history. Kennedy’s campaign against Hubert Humphrey 40 years ago is not comparable to the Clinton-Obama marathon. When he was killed, Kennedy had been a candidate for only two-and-one-half months and Humphrey for two months. Contrary to the impression given by Sen. Clinton, Kennedy was not the presumptive nominee removed by an assassin. Humphrey enjoyed a decisive lead in delegates that Kennedy surely would have been unable to erase. As for 1992, Bill Clinton clinched the nomination in April — not June, as his wife claims.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/hillary_agonistes_1.html
Eyeless in the Plaza, we could call it! LOL
So, in fact, she was bending the truth so she could bring up RFK, not that his demise had any resemblance to the current primary’s timetable.
Tacky, or what?
KR,
You’d better quit while you are behind.
Cheers.
734 Enemy Combatant
I don’t know how much more educating that 28% can get really. I certainly don’t think any of them will read the book. If they even care in the slightest about the news, and the evidence suggests they don’t, they’ll just see Karl Rove say ‘oh it sounds like a far left liberal blog’ on Fox News, and then get back to spitting out bits of cheeseburger abusing the TV as Fox replays Obama saying ‘Auschwitz’ instead of ‘Buchenwald’ for the 50th time.
Of course I don’t really mind that the book has come out. I just think it’s astonishingly low from McClelland. You have to hear the way McClelland spoke at the press conference when he quit, in this shaky tearful voice, saying what an honour it had been, and listening to GWB go on about how one day, when this was all over, they would rock back at the ranch with some pipe tobacco. Really it just struck me that McClelland was a miserable grub, because either he was a lackey completely devoid of any moral principles, or else a traitor who, despite his convictions, would sell out his friends for a book deal.
So now we have Pancho 3367 trying to justify ignoring 2.3 million peoples votes on a flawed study saying more Dems would have come out to vote
Fact ,Hillary on EVERY Poll for 6 months was going to thrash Obama in MI & FL
by 15% to 20%. We must deal with reality of the 2.3 million people who actually legally voted …..and not some economists theory of mythical voters which IF e economist is correct (that other mythical voters would have voted) mean Hillarys popular vote would be statistically higher not lower !!!)
ie. the % win margin wouldn’t change , but the number of surplus votes Hillary would win over Obama would dramatically increase !
As to the relative turnouts , this guy has used the first 37 Primarys when the contest was ‘hotly contested so the turnout would be high wouldn’t it. but NI & MI were 2 of the first 4 Primarys , held in quiet January when Hillary was deemed the clear leader & no great hot contest or interest. Plus in neither FL or MI (despte some Obama campaign cheating in both FL & MI defying DNC rules)
Candidates neither out the time nor money in affecting numbers also. A FAKE analysis , and why would a pro hillary supporter do one , they wouldn’t would they. So on all 3 stat grounds above this guys work belongs in a dustbin and the 2.3 million sa per my #642 should be accepted as is
Also Pancho , you have a habit of quoting from people you agree with like this guy , the rag DailyKos and hypocritical huff woman , so that if yo’re challenged , you say , I never said that. As I’ve deomstrated with these other 2 sources , they are not only biased to Obama but also incompetent
777
Greensborough Growler
Behind?
Do you get everything arse about Gruffy? LOL
Your horse is finished and your arguments are ridiculous, but I’m ‘behind’?
My money, as opposed to your big mouth, is on Obama and McCain, but I’m “behind”.
Well, in that case, I love being “behind”! LOL
You are a silly person, aren’t you?
GG, dont tell me you got a horsey as well, sigh#@&*
No Ron, I think you misunderstand. I really just want everyone’s vote counted so as not to besmirch the memory or slaves, abolitionists, suffragettes, or the fallen in Zimbabwe. Otherwise I’ll be sad. This is all about human rights.
Also I am avoiding false arguments.
#782 – aMIGO – [Also I am avoiding false arguments] – is this your version of the mexican standoff? or more accurately mexican runoff.
Finns, I like to think of it as a Floridian standoff.
I just get disgusted when people compare the FL and MI dispute to the very real tragedy that is going on in Zimbabwe. Seriously, get a freaking grip on reality.
Oh No, I misspoke too soon. “I know Senator Obama. He doesn’t say anything by accident,” – hmmmm, a song from Obama to Hillary:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=nECoA-uVGfw
[ABC News' Teddy Davis and Gregory Wallace Report: Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell (D) thinks that Sen. Barack Obama's, D-Ill., recent reference to Abraham Lincoln's "Team of Rivals" was intended to send a signal about his openness to including Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., on the Democratic ticket.
"I know Senator Obama. He doesn’t say anything by accident," said Rendell. "He went out of his way to mention 'Team of Rivals.'"
"One of my heroes is Abraham Lincoln," said Obama. "And a while back there was a wonderful book written by Doris Kearns Goodwin called 'Team of Rivals,' which talked about [the way] Lincoln basically pulled in all the people who had been running against him into his Cabinet because whatever . . . personal feelings there were, the issue was how can we get this country through this time of crisis.”
“And I think,” he added, “that has to be the approach that one takes, whether it’s vice president or Cabinet, whoever, and by the way that does not exclude Republicans either.”
The author of “Team of Rivals” has joined Rendell in predicting that Obama will pick Clinton as his running mate. Appearing Tuesday on MSNBC, Goodwin said she is willing to bet that the Democratic frontrunner will put Clinton on the ticket if he wins the nomination. ]
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/05/rendell-obama-r.html
Pancho you mean you are avoiding a sound argument. This guy is saying Repug number realitively were higher then Dems. , so they would be. Go back to January , the Repugs had a real 3 way contest , the mormonist , the the Huck , the Julie and the Macca and their leads had swapped around a did their polling….so the good folks cam out that snooty Francis #778 derides , hence high Repug turnouts then. But for the Dems , Hillary was seen as the defintie winner , plus Hillary lead in all polling in MI & FL by 15% to 20% on all polls right up to the actual FL & MI Primary day AND for months beforehand , there was no deemed hot Dems contest vs the 4 way close Repugs race then plus no massive Dems candidates adds in FL or MI vs the massive Repug Primary ads nor the massive relative Dems campaigning in FL & MI vs Repugs campaigning. So a comparison to Feb onwards primary relativities to Repugs is a flawed anaysis when the Repug race died and the Dems race heated up & with big adds & big campaigning. My argument is more logical than his which seeks to include 37 primarys rather than the first 4 in Jan of which FL & MI were 2 , but you’ve never conceded any adverse Obama point Pancho
Further , a small relative increase in voters of course would have occured with ads & campaigning but small relatively given the FIVE then January political conditions existing with the Dems vs the Repugs. also as I said , Hillary whilst the margin wouldn’t have changed would have relatively gained in popular vote terms from that
FINNS , MI & FL , another barry hall , you got a top man there
FINNS
#786
you quoted this ‘expert’ saying “And I think,” he added, “that has to be the approach that one takes, whether it’s vice president or Cabinet, whoever, and by the way that does not exclude Republicans either.”
Does that mean Obama may appoint to foreign affairs my Condi ?
Perhaps the Obamabots sweatheart to a “principles portfolio” their Karl Rove , can just see the Obamabot at that thought spilling their caviar lattees
Francis at 778:
“you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”. Sure most of Bush’s Base will blow Scotty’s broadside off with a shrug, but a lot more of “the rats” will be seen deserting the ship on the 6′o’clock news in the lead up to November. “Sensationalist Elements” in the MSM are finely attuned to these sorts of trends.
Sprawled before his home entertainment centre Joe Sixpak will belch, yawn, stretch and confide, “Say, Jane, do you ever get the feeling that we’re being had?” These god-fearin’ folk don’t like to be played for fools. That’s when they start reachin’ for their pitchforks and torches; cussin’ a lot and revvin’ their humvees.
And no arguments from me that Scotty is a weasel extraordinaire. But that’s the way the game is played at the top. How many people did Bush, Cheney, Rove and The Cabal destroy in order to get where they are and stay there? Spare me the indignation of Scotty’s skullduggery and take a long hard look at who he has shelved from the inside.
Jimmy Carville slagged off SD Gov. Bill Richardson calling him a Judas on good friday for publicly switching to Obi, Scotty’s act is a far deeper treachery and consequently all the more delicious!
JEN , just saw your post , well done. Obviously the ‘elitists’ aren’t ‘greens party’
I can assure you Ron-
I am elite.
791
Jen
And Gruffy?
He ain’t heavy!
‘e-lite!
McSame:
http://i286.photobucket.com/albums/ll86/pattisigh/mcbush-mccain-bushthumbnail.jpg
…stop the difference!
Francis & EC
Apparently Ratfink Scotty was moved to tell the truth about the scum that masquerades as the Bush Administration after immersing himself in a religious awakening since leaving the White House.
He has now come to the conclusion that Bush and Turdblossom aren’t God after all. He is particularly pissed at Rove for making him look like a lieing shmuck about the Plame affair.
When he starts spilling his guts the religious wingnuts who have been devoted to the Repugs will be listening to one of their own.
Roll on Nov.
I met a man who wasn’t there………
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/28/AR2008052803493.html
It’s worth noting that McClellan felt he’d been used to cover for Rove and Scooter, and no doubt, he had.
They lied to his face and Card sent him out to tell the public what Bush and Cheney wanted the public to hear about Valerie Plame’s outing.
It was, let’s not forget, treason, to divulge the name of a covert CIA operative and here was the Whitehouse up to their neck in it.
You don’t think you’d be a tad peeved to have been used like that?
He’s got every right to dump on them, they sure did it to him!
A relatively dignified and mature approach to the Rules Committee meeting coming up on Saturday from ONE of the campaigns. Guess which one. What are the busloads supposed to achieve? To intimidate the Rules Committee into doing other than their carefully considered duty? Yet another tawdry show from the desperate cunning stunt meister:
Busloads of Clinton supporters are expected to rally outside Saturday’s meeting. Obama advisers say they’ve discouraged their supporters from showing up, though Mr. Plouffe boasted he could have summoned tens of thousands “at the click of a mouse.”
“We’re not going to turn this thing into a circus,” said David Wilhelm, a former national party chairman and Obama supporter.
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/politics/national/stories/DN-demrules_29pol.ART.State.Edition1.4608d2f.html
797
jaundiced view
Ah, the Alien Mother calling all her little pods to hatch and invade the humans that are standing in her way! LOL
(It’s inevitable isn’t it? She will start drooling viscous slime soon!)
797 jv
what else do you expect from Bill and Hillary Springer?
i would love to see a busload or two of their supporters from WV and KY turn up with their banjo’s.
KR,
With a lovely advance to soothe his peevishness.
Those publishers know the cure to all ills.
Moving on, as they say.
Paul Maslin again, on voting patterns, does the negative picture first, and then goes on to play with the positive one:
The best estimate based on these projections is that 18- to 29-year-olds would rise from 17 percent of the overall electorate to 18 percent. That might seem like an insignificant difference. But consider this: If Obama can increase the Democratic advantage within this group from Kerry’s 9 point margin to, say, 15, meaning he’d win the age cohort by 57 to 42 percent — then his national vote total among all voters will have risen by more than a full point. And in states with more youthful populations, including such swing states as Nevada, Virginia and Colorado, the margin could approach 2 points. If the turnout difference is even more pronounced, then a smaller vote margin among the under-30s for Obama could still give him a point in the overall national vote. With a 57 percent showing among under-30s, he could add 2 points across the board nationally.
Wherever you find it, an extra 2 percentage points in your national margin ain’t bubkes. Millions more e-mails, Facebook accounts, YouTube videos and direct new-wave advertising will be aimed at producing just that for the Democratic nominee.
Salon
Which shows how small percentages of big populations in the right places, can make a big difference. No doubt team Obama will be playing for these votes with all their collective power.
Gruffy, you don’t need to tell me anything about publishers, OK?
KR,
Don’t tell us ESJ was your publisher?
That would be too, too funny.
From Wikipedia: United States presidential election debates, 2008:
Although the final schedule and formats must be agreed to by the eventual nominees of the Republican and Democratic parties and any participating third-party candidates, the following is the schedule announced by the Commission on November 19th.
Three presidential debates:
* Friday, September 26, 2008 at the University of Mississippi in Oxford, Mississippi
* Tuesday, October 7, 2008 at Belmont University in Nashville, Tennessee
* Wednesday, October 15, 2008 at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York
One vice-presidential debate:
* Thursday, October 2, 2008 at Washington University in St. Louis, Missouri
Dirty Digger…
‘the Democrats will probably win the US presidential election in a landslide…considers Senator Obama very promising…Race will be an issue for Senator Obama, who would be the first black US president, but “it looks like he overcomes that, overcomes that totally”.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23778733-601,00.html
I think I’m turning Al Capone…
Ron, methinks the Obamabots here are speechless as their kid is flim-flam-ing over a number issues, especially be nice to Hillary strategy, probably at the urging of Lady Huff. Look at this from the Huff;
Goodness gracious me, as Kumar’s granny likes to say in Punjabi, darling Olbermann is now on par with OReiley and Hannity on the Faknews.
Hey GG, you know the elusive “last nails” in Hillary’s coffin. Apparently, the Black Prince charged in on his White Steed and pulled out the nails himself using his pearly white teeth. Amazing sight, i was told. The new tale is now called The Black Prince and his Seven Teeth.
Ecky:
http://www.cartoonbank.com/assets/1/120523_n.gif
Murdoch makes his move…
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23778733-601,00.html
Finns
you know as well as i do that it is now Ms Huffington’s job to COALESCE the Hillarion Girls back into the bosom of the Party.
HarryH, COALESCE back into the bosom of Lady Hufffff?
Rupert to Ron
‘Race will be an issue for Senator Obama, who would be the first black US president, but “it looks like he overcomes that, overcomes that totally”…
Togs & noseclips Jen.
“you campaign in poetry and govern in prose.”
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/05/the-permanent-campaign-continu.html
Yeah, Kirri, first they start flying kites, next thing the Taliban are busting them for playing perfectly good air guitar.
Air sitar, otoh, is perfectly acceptable. Religious police are closely scrutinising the fingerwork of street musicians, as an extra degree of digital extension can be interpreted as having strayed a fret too far while struming and strutting their stuff, as it were, in Sharia Law. Recidivists are known to have lost an arm above the elbow as a warning to all wannabee air musicians in Taliban controlled provinces.
Gruffy, is it OK if Rupert says it? Well, he has:
“I think it (a recession) is one we will be coming out of for quite some time,” Mr Murdoch said. “In the next 18 months, this country is going to be in for a very hard time.”
…he’s not an ‘ignorant loathing leftie’ too, is he? LOL
What a beautiful thing. The McClellan book hits number 1 on Amazon. It’s all good for the Democrats. McCain gets smeared as the sh!t hits the Iraq War fan.
MSNBC says “guarantees one thing: There is NO CHANCE Bush fixes his perception problems in the public and the media anytime soon.” (Ed Gillespie, who are you going to pin this one on, huh?). It also sees the book as striking a blow to the campaign of John McCain, who has been slowly backing away from the President but remains identified with many of his less popular policies, including many associated with the Iraq war. In short, this is a big book.
Scott McClellan Hits #1 On Amazon!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/28/scott-mcclellan-hits-1-on_n_103933.html
45 delegates to go…
So Mrs Clinton is going to ride off into the sunset having cried crocodile tears for the voters of MI/FL, because the numbers suit her, even if she agreed they wouldnt count, even if Obama wasnt on the MI ballot, even if the numbers now wont save her. What a pathetic way to end the race. How far she has fallen.
We can only hope Obama will not give her the VP slot.
Codger 808
I bet Murdoch is extremely interested in “meeting” Mr Obama lol
One of the things Obama has spoken about, in and out of the Senate, is the concentration of Media, and how it is damaging for Democracy and the country.
I bet Murdoch is VERY keen to “meet” him.
Ron – don’t forget your medication.
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/campaignstops/posts/Hillary-Xperience.151.jpg
812
Enemy Combatant
Nice quote, Ecky, and you’d have to be giving Obi One a very high score on the poetic bit.
What many here don’t seem to realise is that Obi is a guy who understands the US Constitution in fine nuanced detail, the working of government, and has been schooled in the post-partisan Chicago of Mayor Daley. It was a tough school, but it’s a different beast now.
Obi One is the polymath, he can do poetry and prose, and is someone who knows that lots of policy detail on its own will not excite voters.
Ask Hillary.
Andrew
the only thing Hillary will be getting off Obama is her debt paid off.
HarryH
an intrade & earth moving moment on the one hand; perhaps a big butterfly on the other, we shall see…
812
Enemy Combatant
As a total aside, you mention sitar players fingers, well I saw Ravi Shankar’s fingers up close once, and it looked like someone had sliced deeply into the tips and left a permanent groove across them. He reckoned the first few years were hell! LOL
817
Catrina
I wouldn’t touch that Catrina, it’s very caustic!
FINNS
#776
“Ron, methinks the Obamabots here are speechless as their kid is flim-flam-ing over a number issues..”
yes how do you smugly defend Obama using the Holocaust & your grandmother’s (who’ve you’ve denigrated) brother to cheaply win votes or ‘TLC feelers to Hillary’ who you’ve biled at for months who is beneath Alfonso’s standards ?
Instead we see a collection of bitterfly butterfly quotes. Madame Huff you mention the venom to hillary queen , Pancho thinks she’s doing it for the good of the Party.
I think she’s twigged to 2 things , the 17 million hillay supporters can destroy Obama so hypocritically suck up to them after denigrating them for months and she’ a feminist so better to put some quotable pro hillary quotes in to requote later to prove (her now lost) feminist credibility. A piece of work
HarryH, why the hell should Obama pay off Hillary’s debt. She was the one who insisted on continuing in the race. Wouldnt give her a cent
We’ve read more tosh about which group Obama can’t win in November than we’d care to recall, but let the historical cure us:
There is no relationship between how candidates perform among any particular group of voters in primaries and how they do with that segment in the general election. In 1992, Bill Clinton lost college-educated voters to Paul Tsongas in the early competitive primaries, but he went on to win that group in November by the largest margin any Democrat ever had. Similarly, John Kerry lost young voters in the competitive primaries in 2004 before going on to win them by a record margin in the general election.
Second, Democrats running for president have been losing white, non-college-educated voters since before Mr. Obama was elected to the Illinois legislature. Al Gore and Mr. Kerry each failed to win a majority of this bloc in the general election. With these voters, the size of the losing margin is what matters.
Mr. Gore lost them by 17 percentage points while winning the national popular vote. Mr. Kerry lost them by 23 points and the country by fewer than two and a half points. The last Democrat to win white, non-college voters was Bill Clinton, who carried them by a single point in the three-way races in 1992 and 1996.
By comparison, Mr. Obama is only two percentage points behind John McCain among these voters in the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Another recent survey shows him down seven points.
In other words, Mr. Obama is faring better today with the white working class than did either Mr. Gore or Mr. Kerry.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/29/opinion/29mellman.html
…so the next person to start banging on about the Appalachian HillBilly crowd, will be locked in an echo chamber with the Banjo Hillbilly Orchestra (BHO) until after the election.
“historical record” that should be.
Andrew
I’d love it if she got nothing too. But you do what ya gotta do.
Ron @ 823
‘You! hypocrite lecteur!-mon semblable,-mon frere!’
Hillary use of 9/11 ads angers families
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/october2007/071007Hillary.htm
IF its pro Obama yous quote it irrespective of the source, today its Murdoch , previously Rush Limbaugh , McClelland , Hannity , Rove , O’Reilly & Coulter
Yous are hypocritical without political standards of sourcing.
And we have our CodgY quoting the self interest Murdoch who WILL be talking nicely to Repugs as well my sniper butterfly stuill smarting over the decision to reject his elititst induction but who alwas mentions black race seemingly a personal conflict our CodgY has against other races
Oh dear, WTF is going on in Lady Huff’s castle. i know she is trying to “COALESCE the Hillarion Girls back into the bosom of the Party”. but this is rrrrrrrrrridiculous. what’s next, trying to “COALESCE” the Obambots from their delusion of grandeur?
Thomas B. Edsall
The Huffington Post
Swing State Polls Give Hillary Last-Minute Boost
The Gallup report found: “In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%. ….. “In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election. The Gallup findings were music to Wolfson’s ears, so much so that he reread the first graph aloud to make sure it sank in.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/28/swing-state-polls-give-hi_n_103980.html
#828 Diog, need a hand with anger management?
Now we have k/r still cutting & pasting full electoral articles and pretending to other blogers some of it is his and not understanding what he transposed.
k/r “so the next person to start banging on about the Appalachian HillBilly crowd”
You checkerboard fool , Bill won Appalachian OH & WV and the Presidency
Gore & Kerry didn’t win them and lost the Presidency
Hillary also wins both , Obama is in trouble in one and cann’t win the other.
Stick to cutting & pasting the financial articels …but without commenting on them either
Finns
It’s Baudelaire from Les Fleurs du Mal. And it’s quite affectionate and sympathetic.
I have been accused of being ghoulish on more than one occasion. My best bet for POTUS is a long shot which involves McCain dying.
The odds of an averagely healthy 71yo surviving another 6 months is about 95%. that gives him a 20/1 chance of dying before the election. Say if he dies that the chance his VP gets up is 5/1. That’s about a 100/1 chance the Repug VP will be elected POTUS.
Romney, Huck, Crist et al are at 1000/1.
HarryH please explain why Obama has got to pay off Hillary’s debts???
#827 – HarryH – [But you do what ya gotta do] – like getting down to your bended knees and beg hillary to be your veep?
812 EC – Very poetic, Baz is. I’m convinced he will keep the fine verse going a lot longer after the inauguration than Rudd did here (the Henson art outburst and the petrol populism have revealed him for the flea he is going to be).
KR – 825
I agree. There is indeed a lot of tripe going around about the demographic ‘groups’ that one or the other candidate ‘owns’. This is just more Clinton ephemera possible only because there is not a Dem nominee yet.
Hillary ‘owns’ women? Only until Baz is nominated. Then they will compare Baz v Macca and note which one is likely to be better for women. The answer stands out like dogs’ ears, does it not? Also they will reflect on which one between Macca and Baz is likely to make their children, grandchildren and great grand-children evan a little safer. Again, put down the glasses.
In other words, whether women at present support Hillary over Baz will by November be psephological history, and he will ‘own’ that demographic against Macca. The polls show this is already happening as Baz firms up the nomination.
Same theme with uneducated working men. While they now support Hillary over
Baz, those who are natural Dem supporters, because they are unionists or supporters generally of Dem social policies as battlers, then they too will compare Baz to Macca when the nomination is confirmed. Are they going to abandon Baz when McCain stands for everything a unionist or a battler hates? You know the answer.
As for the groups now supporting Baz, such as the educated groups and blacks, well they will simply remain with him when he’s against Macca, rock solid.
So, for those wasting time dissecting the cut up of the demographics in the primaries. Wait until the real race is on, because it means 3/4 of 5/8 of FA at this stage.
In short, the Dems will win in November against McCain with Baz as the nominee. If you don’t believe me, then have a look at Possums Intrade link.
Finns
The rumour on many US Democrat blogs, all unattributed I should add, is that Obama told Hillary that she would be his VP “over my dead body”. Hence her refusal to pull out while there is any tiny chance of her winning. And there’s no truth to the rumour that Hillary’s reply was “That can be arranged.”
KR @ 813,
Rupert said that invading Iraq was a good idea because it meant locking in oil at $20 per barrel.
Oops.
Diog, apparently it is not a rumour that there is a School Book Depository building downtown chicago
Dogenes
#828
I repeat my #823 EXACTLY ‘yes how do you smugly defend Obama using the Holocaust & your grandmother’s (who’ve you’ve denigrated) brother to cheaply win votes or ‘TLC feelers to Hillary’ who you’ve biled at for months who is beneath Alfonso’s standards’
Answer what I said. I’m very clearly addressing this to Obama supporters here about Obama & Huff woman.
INSTEAD Diogenes , you said “You! hypocrite lecteur! mon semblable,-mon frere!’
The first english part is I guess you’re saying I’m a hypocrite , even though I’ve NEVER been asked to comment on a 9/11 ad , the second some other language which I guess is more personally insulting
Then you give a link changing the subject to Hillary 2007 /9/11 !
as if that has anything whatsoever to do with me questioning Obama supporters here for their silence on Obama’s use of 6 million j.e.ws or Huff womans hypocracy. Two ‘rons’ don’t make a ‘wright’. The issue is what I put in #823
835 jv (the Henson art outburst and the petrol populism have revealed him for the flea he is going to be).
I wish I’d said that! & yes etc…
Poblano at 538 has done an interesting breakdown of all the references to other candidates in press releases by the DNC, RNC and the Obama, Clinton and McCain campaigns. Looks like the real battle is heating up now, and can be used to give a good explanation for why Hillary’s poll numbers aren’t too bad at the moment (as none of the other campaigns are attacking her substantially any more).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/incoming.html
The DNC seems to have been doing most of the legwork on McCain, and Clinton a little bit more. It’s difficult to know whether Obama wants to attack McCain as much as the other two, given that he is trying to run on a “new politics” platform. I must admit, I would like to see him attack McCain a lot more.
disagree JV and codger- Rudd on petrol. It’s Nelson going for populism. Rudd on petrol:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/29/2259298.htm
KR,
You been copying this guys script? Note the date.
http://bellaciao.org/en/article.php3?id_article=9995
Ron, here’s a laugh you missed on the way through.
Holocaust Museum confirms, Obama’s uncle’s Infantry Division liberated Buchenwald
http://www.americablog.com/2008/05/holocaust-museum-confirms-obamas-uncles.html
Perhaps your ‘dwalfy’ is due for a service?
Andrew – Sorry – didn’t mean to sidetrack things off topic! Still think Rudd is superficial and flaky on petrol as well as art – the public servants say he won’t listen to anyone. Hence the leaks. And the Feds are investigating the leaks. Where’s the transparency? I thought only the right-wing conducted witch-hunts. Not nice, and not promising for the future. Plus Penny Wong is behaving like a Stalinist too.
As for Brendan … well, the tram is up there but he’s not sure if the bell has rung yet.
Now the US arena beckons …
Good one codger – If grand great uncle wayback relative was in the 89th then it’s official. Thiat family element should get good play for Baz from here on in.
Ron, you bloody dill, I use this thing : called a colon, to seperate my intro from the quoted passage, and then at the end of it, I put the URL.
Nobody except a complete moron would assume that in any way, shape or form, I am trying to pretend that I wrote the quoted material. Why would I append the link to it?
You’re such a total braindead nong, I wonder how you remember to breathe.
I guess Kirribill Removals and Ron don’t like each other LOL
837
Greeensborough Growler
That’s actually funny, Gruffy! Well done.
But that was in his Neoconservative Cheerleader phase, a wee bit before he became an ‘ignorant loathing leftie’! LOL
(Who said The Idiot Decider was not a force for good! He’s converted Rupert away from Neoconservatism!)
848
Progressive
Yeah we need More Ron like a hole in the head. It’s tedious, childish dribble, composed by someone without the vaguest idea of the English language, and has no idea how utterly ‘hillarious’ it is.
But when the More Ron tries to claim I’m somehow attempting to pass off work that I quote (with full attribution!), I think it’s time to tell him he’s a bloody idiot.
Greensborough Growler, Ron, ESJ: all the arguments in the world don’t change the fact that your girl Hillary is a dud, and she’s going down in flames!
Kirribilli Removals: loving your work mate, keep it up!
BREAKING: Rupert Murdoch about to endorse Obama?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/29/73059/8831/100/524674
OMG, the Obamabots are saliving at the prospect of Murdoch endorsing Obama?
Not really Finns, just counting delegates, closing gates and waiting with well maintained wings for the main game…
#852 – Progressive Says: [BREAKING: Rupert Murdoch about to endorse Obama?] – you call yourself Progressive?
LOL Progressive, very profound 851
Ron @ 839
The translation of the quote “You! hypocrite lecteur! mon semblable,-mon frere!’ is “O, hypocrite reader, my fellow man, my brother!”
It’s a line to the reader of “The Evil Flowers” saying that Baudelaire shares his readers sense of profound spiritual dissatisfaction with our lives. So I am agreeing with you, to some extent, regarding our respective candidates. All the candidates will resort to cheap politicking to exploit deaths for votes as I pointed out in my link.
#857 – Diog – [All the candidates will resort to cheap politicking to exploit deaths for votes as I pointed out in my link] – is there a weighting in the equation? you know,
like 1 = 6 million or
1 >>>> 6 milllion or
1 <<<<< 6 million
and he introduced hollywood into the discussion:
“On this Memorial Day, as our nation honors its unbroken line of fallen heroes — and I see many of them in the audience here today — our sense of patriotism is particularly strong.”
‘DNC Lawyers Rule Against Clinton’
‘no more than half of those delegations could be legally recognized.’
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/28/AR2008052803093.html?hpid=topnews
Nice piccy too.
Next.
She better makes sure when she does the relief work, she got her undies on, otherwise the chilly wind of Szechuan would be rather unpleasant on the stoney bit.
BEIJING, May 29 (Reuters) – ["Due to my inappropriate words and acts during the interview, I feel deeply sorry and sad about hurting Chinese people," Stone said in the statement. "I am willing to take part in the relief work of China's earthquake, and wholly devote myself to helping affected Chinese people." .........
Luxury retailer Christian Dior has pulled advertisements featuring Sharon Stone from stores across China after the actress suggested the country's earthquake was "bad karma" for Beijing's policies in Tibet.
At least 68,000 people died in the May 12 quake in southwest China, which came months after unrest in Tibet that sparked an international outcry over Beijing's handling of the predominantly Buddhist region, which Communist troops entered in 1950.
"Due to some customer reaction we have decided to pull her image from all of the department stores and from all of China," Christian Dior China said in a statement.]
Will Obama visit China and talk to the communists about hope?
How does Dr Roberto feel about hope as an ideology?
ESJ, that could be her first job as roving ambassador if she plays her cards right…good idea.
Subject to ’sniper wok’ worn at all times.
Market Predictors and the 50/50 Obama risk
FINNS
#830 and GG with his ‘truth nails’
I’m going for once quote the whole of a post for the blogoshere record showing your Gallup analytical Report of all Democrat Primarys demonstrating that Hillary would defeat McCain whilst Obama is at best 50/50. This is supported by all e/v swing state polling , demographic bocs analysis with precedents , other psephological factors etc. This is supported by the ‘10,000 simulation modeling by MANY sites not just 38 bu including 38 This is supported by US political pundits. clearly the by far the most electable is Hillary and therefore is the ‘best candidate’
But Intrade market predictors (which do have an inherrent flaws by the way) show the reverse , a comfortable Obama win. Clearly all the info evidence in the first par. psephologically credible which correctly show Hillary does win & that Obama is 50/50 now (and the market predictors now are wrong) Therefore the SD decision should unquestionably be Hillary as Nominee.
Should Obama be made nominee and should the psephological data per first para change over the next 5 months and Obama should win or win solidly , it will be a statistically coincidence the market predictors were belately also proved right but not in reverse. I am NOT saying to ignore market predictors , in fact I now will be watching them but only as an additional point of reference info with all other first para info. This is not an attack on the marsupial , simply we disagree on methodology & him feeling their near perfect record over 5 elections in a 2 horse race so they’re crucial. Thats his perogative to do so which most here will follow and thats fine , i’m giving a diverse opinion , but the overriding caution yous should have is
1/ The Party’s SD’s should endorse the candidate who’ll win for the Party , and on all psephological evidence that should be Hillary.
2/ Should the SD’s endorse the least electable Obama , based on a 51/49 delegate win (2%) then its not only a 50/50 chance of Obama winning but he will need to rely on (a) Hillary’s 31% current voters wanting to vote McCain mostly changing their mind and then turning up (b) linking McCain clearly to Bush which McCain has largely avoided & the polls generlly say he’s done not bad there also (c) a significant economic downturn Aug to Oct and then try & blame McCain or Iraq becomes total chaos (d) demographic bloc changes to Obama if Hillary is not there as an alternative (e) a massive black and youg white turnout (f) not being exposed on his ‘nasty Senate voting record or his ‘nasty’ friends including Wright and (g) not being exposed on his largely unproven ‘wet’ economic model (h) not being exposed for a ’soft’ national security philosophy.
Thats too many if’s for me and it should be for a politically savvy SD and so at the crunch i expect them to vote for the lady with ‘ticker’ & universal healthcare , our Hillary
FINNS post
830
Thomas B. Edsall
The Huffington Post
Swing State Polls Give Hillary Last-Minute Boost
The Gallup report found: “In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%. ….. “In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election. The Gallup findings were music to Wolfson’s ears, so much so that he reread the first graph aloud to make sure it sank in.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/28/swing-state-polls-give-hi_n_103980.html
Codger,
The cold water clause,
“But in the memo, party lawyers determined that full restoration, as sought by Clinton, would violate DNC rules, although it did note a loophole that would allow her to carry the challenge to the first day of the Democratic National Convention in late August.”
The quest will continue.
Last nails anyone!
Christian Dior China!!!!! Can you believe that? I think I preferred the Mao One Suit Look!!!!!
858 Finns
3000 died in 9/11 not one. IMHO Hillary didn’t exploit RFK’s death, she was hoping it would happen again.
The death of one man is a tragedy. The death of millions is a statistic.
Joseph Stalin
#867 – Diog – didn’t uncle joe liberated Auschwitz or was it Obama’s uncle.
Dead day 1 or dead day 2 Some quest GG.
GG
The committee that Hilary has the most numbers and the best chance with is the Rules Committee on Saturday. She has a guaranteed vote from at least 13 of the 30 members.
The Credentials Committee at the Convention is firmly in Obamas favour.
So you Amigos better hope for a good outcome for Brutusina on Saturday.
I’d say Rupe has a pretty good idea how much chance Hill has. Once a megalomaniacal greasy opportunist always a megalomaniacal greasy opportunist.
He’s been pushing her for the last 2 months. Now she’s been dumped.
So Hillary is doing a Farrakhan with her million woman march on Washington this weekend?
That’s Hillarious!
There’s going to be a lot of angry sisters, so I hope the Washington police and riot squads have got the cells ready for lots of old ladies. Imagine the processing time, thousands of handbags’ contents to itemize.
It’s probably not going to be a good look, shoving the dears into the wagons, but dumbocracy requires nothing less!
Lock up the grans for Hillary!
A battle cry to melt a committee’s heart.
Ron, Team HillBilly can quote polls as much as they like old son, the rules are about winning delegates, and she hasn’t won that race.
End of story.
Arguing, now that she’s lost it, that the rules should be different is like one team complaining that if the rugby game had have been soccer they’d have won it!
It’s so ludicrous that nobody (except some who are paid to invent this stuff, and some assorted whackers) thinks this is anything more than a desperate and futile attempt to salvage her position.
IT IS LOST.
Travellers beware!!!! Everybody must get stoned
Japanese customs officials apologize for planting drugs
DPA, HONG KONG
Thursday, May 29, 2008, Page 1
Japan said it was sorry for planting cannabis on an incoming Hong Kong passenger to test out one of its sniffer dogs, a news report said yesterday.
Embarrassed officials had to issue a public appeal to the passenger to return the 142g of cannabis after the dog failed to detect it and the customs officer forgot which bag the drugs were in.
The incident on Sunday, in which a passenger on a Cathay Pacific flight to Tokyo was targeted as he collected his suitcase from the airport carousel, brought an outcry from the Hong Kong government and tourism officials.
The drugs were recovered on Monday evening from the passenger in a Tokyo hotel, but it is not known if the passenger had been traced or whether he or she alerted officials.
In a statement to yesterday’s South China Morning Post, a customs spokesperson said the department felt “great regret and we offer our deepest apologies.”
The 38-year-old officer responsible for planting the drugs said he had carried out similar exercises before and the dogs had always found the drugs.
http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2008/05/29/2003413244
KR, again, dont bother with Hillary supporters, just enjoy Obama’s victory
Codgy & j/v
d
#844 & 846
Obama disgusting used a reference to his gandmothers brothers in WW2 involvement with j.w.ish concentration camps to sickenly trawl for j.ew.sh votes .
Worse Obama “coincidently” said great uncle was at the most emotive of all j.e.w.ish concentration camps , ‘Auschwitz’. tacky
Thats what Obama did so disgracefully and no amount of sqeamish red herrings by yous about which concentration camp great uncle was at , changes the fact Obama deliberately brought up his great uncle’s fighting at j.e.w.ish concentration camps where 6 million j.e.ws were gassed.
Yous have poor political decency especially after yous had the gall to pillor Hillary for a day over her poor judgement in mentioning one deceased RFK , yet when Obama resarects memories 6 million j.e.ws gassed for political expediency yous are silent. Worse you then have the moral bankruptcy to play word games as to which camp it was. I criticised Hillarys action , yous defend Obama action
I convinced Ron is just plain fake.
Nobody can be that silly.
Oh yes they can
Katrina, u r pretty silly, like still blogging at 5am. so r u a fake?
k/r , I’m simply pointing out you not only cut & paste articles every day as if its all your work , instead of quoting a link , but then you usually add an uninformed 2 liner ‘comment’ on financial or electoral matters rather than saying nothing or doing better research statistically which experts expect to see
Pretty smart politics Ron I would have thought, given the audience live & national, the quesion & the subject matter. Looks like a good politician, we shall see.
#880, like seeing the deads in the audience?
879
Ron
Ron, have you ever considered the possibility that your posts actually make no sense, at least not in this universe?
I quote segments of articles to support a series of arguments and viewpoints about the world of US politics and this particular election year.
To make the mind-numbingly ludicrous claim that I’m trying to infer they are ‘my work’ is insane.
Ron, have you ever considered that you may not be sane?
I have very serious concerns that you aren’t.
To the Obama Last Nailers facing their inconvenient truths,
Another balanced argument with two killer quotes:
“If the Obama campaign were in a position to end it, they’d end it,” Mr. Wolfson said.
In any case, asked if the Clinton camp had a scenario for dropping out, Mr. Wolfson said, “The scenario is for victory.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/28/two-candidates-two-endgames/
876
Catrina
fake, flake, take ya pick!
Ron’s an escapee from the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party, and words can mean anything he wants them to mean.
Actually, we must be mad for even reading it! LOL
Ah, then there’s a very simple cure!
That’s OK Gruffy, when Obama wins by passing the magic number of delegates (or wherever HillBilly wants to move the goalposts to) then he wins.
He doesn’t just ‘decide’ to win, he must actually do it, and is now, as we speak, very, very close to it.
Hillary on the other hand, wants to win by ’saying’ she’s winning.
There’s an obvious difference there, and most of us can actually see it.
Superdelegate Update
DNC Gail Rasmussen from Oregon has just endorsed Barack Obama.
DCW Totals:
Obama: 1981, 44 to win
Clinton: 1780, 245 to win
Remaining super delegates sitting on the wall … 195
GG 883
If you’re looking for a balanced argument on the G.W.Bush years, Shooter Cheney has a few good quotes for ya.
Catrina, the nightly zephyr…fresh air…get ready girl.
codger at 888
HarryH,
Or, they could a