Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth

Monthly Archives: June 2008

Newspoll: 55-45

Monday, June 30, 2008 – 11:07 pm

Mumble reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead dropping from 59-41 to 55-45, with primary votes of 44 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent for Coalition, 10 per cent for Greens and 7 per cent others. More to follow.
Meanwhile, Alexander Downer confirms he will quit parliament to take up a job as United Nations special envoy [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Politics | Comments (631)

Taverner: 56-44 to Coalition in NSW

Sunday, June 29, 2008 – 1:13 am

Hot on the heels of a New South Wales state Newspoll headlined 52-48 in the Coalition’s favour (but which Antony Green says should have been 54-46), the Sun-Herald today carries an even worse result for Labor from Taverner. This has the Coalition surging to a 56-44 lead after trailing 51-49 in February. No sample size [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in NSW Politics | Comments (60)

Gippsland by-election post-mortem

Saturday, June 28, 2008 – 11:13 pm

This entry will shortly be expanded with a considered analysis of the result, the general thrust of which will be that the surprisingly large swing to the Nationals indeed sounds warning bells for the Rudd government, however keen Labor partisans might be to mark it down to local factors. Below is a localised breakdown of [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal By-Elections | Comments (229)

Gippsland by-election live

Saturday, June 28, 2008 – 6:06 pm

Vote
Swing
2PP

Darren Chester (Nationals)
24,184 40.4%
12.2%
66.2%
7.2%

Darren McCubbin (Labor)
16,147 27.0%
-9.3%
33.8%
-7.2%

Rohan Fitzgerald (Liberal)
12,369 20.7%
-

Malcolm McKelvie (Greens)
4,430 7.4%
2.0%

Ben Buckley (LDP)
2,731 4.6%
-

8.38pm. Hooray! The AEC finally adds booth results.
8.14pm. The final booth has given the Nationals a big boost, pushing the swing to a headline-grabbing 7.25 per cent on the AEC figures. However, Antony Green’s booth-on-booth comparison (which I can’t do because the AEC doesn’t have [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal By-Elections | Comments (103)

Kororoit by-election live

Saturday, June 28, 2008 – 6:03 pm

Vote
Swing
2PP

Marlene Kairouz (Labor)
12,665 49.0%
-13.9%
56.3

Les Twentyman (Independent)
5,108 19.8%
-
43.7

Jenny Matic (Liberal)
5,345 20.7%
5.2%

Marcus Power (Greens)
1,297 5.0%
-2.2%

Tania Walters (Independent)
1,093 4.2%
-8.1%

Andre Kozlowski (CEC)
334 1.3%
-0.8%

Tuesday 6pm. I am reliably informed that the Victorian Electoral Commission has conducted an unpublished Labor-versus-Liberal preference count which puts Labor at 71.5 per cent. So the real swing against Labor was only 4.1 per cent, a good result for a third term [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Victorian By-Elections, Victorian politics | Comments (63)

Morgan: 61-39

Friday, June 27, 2008 – 2:53 pm

Yet another bad poll for Brendan Nelson, this time from Morgan who have combined two weekends’ worth of face-to-face polling after going quiet last week. This has Labor’s two-party lead up to 61-39 from 58.5-41.5 at the previous poll conducted on June 7/8, which was also face-to-face. Labor is up from 48.5 per cent to [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal Politics | Comments (87)

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in SA

Friday, June 27, 2008 – 3:11 am

State Newspoll bonanza, episode five. All this and two by-elections tomorrow. Has there ever been a greater week in all of history? Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead in South Australia increasing to 54-46 from 53-47 in the first quarter. Labor’s primary vote is steady on 41 per cent, while the Liberal and Nationals are down [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in South Australian Politics | Comments (41)

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor in WA

Friday, June 27, 2008 – 2:12 am

State Newspoll bonanza, episode four. The latest quarterly survey of Western Australian state voting intention has Labor’s two-party lead increasing from 53-47 to 54-46; on the primary vote, Labor is down one point to 41 per cent, while the Coalition is down three to 35 per cent. One way of looking at this result [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Western Australian Politics | Comments (45)

Kororoit by-election preview

Thursday, June 26, 2008 – 9:15 pm

The campaign for Saturday’s state by-election in the Melbourne seat of Kororoit, initiated by the retirement of one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, did not at first seem a matter of great interest. Located in the rock-solid Labor outer western suburbs, from northern St Albans out to Caroline Springs, the seat was won by Haermeyer at [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Victorian By-Elections, Victorian politics | Comments (19)

Gippsland by-election preview

Thursday, June 26, 2008 – 9:00 pm

June 26: With two days to go, I’ve promoted this post to the top of the website batting order (scroll to the May 5 entry at the bottom of the post for a general overview). Brendan Nelson today engaged in expectations management on a heroic scale when he predicted Labor would win the by-election, which [...]

By William Bowe | Posted in Federal By-Elections | Comments (87)