UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.
Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.
Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.
541 Comments
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That’s a great result for Labor, given the week from hell.
Nelson: A percent per cent?
I know I should read the OO, but Rudd’s PPM rating has SLUMPED to….66%. He’s finished
Personally I think the most concerning aspect of that poll is the question asking if people believed Rudd made a promise to keep petrol prices lower. 51% say yes, 23% no, and 26% uncommitted. The ALP have really let that one get away from them – they should have quashed that perception feted by the media months ago.
meant SHOULDNT read the OO
Does this mean the Liberals will sack Shanahan and Milne as their cheerleaders? ROTFL
sigh
I thought the country had turned a corner last November.
It’s not that I begrudge the opposition a close result per say – it’s the lack of intelligence behind this weeks result.
I’d almost be advising the government to go hard on the climate issues and give away any hope of re-election at this point. The current LP front bench aren’t capable of holding together through 1 term of parliament, and 5 years from now things might be very nasty in the world.
The car-centricism in this country has to be broken, and a lot of things have to change for that to occur.
Here’s a link that you just really have to click. You might think we’re not that bad, but 5c? I don’t know.
http://www.carectomy.com/index.php/Action/Free-Handgun-with-Every-Car-Purchase
Although it is good to have our combat troops home, i feel sorry for the iraqis under our command as now they must be supervised by the Americans and they are usually gung ho, arrogant and unsympathetic.
A failed and costly war. Howard, Blair and Bush should be in jail.
Labor should have shut up on the pictures and oil prices- and let Nelson show how unvisionary and stupid he is.
“Rudd pays personal price”, ROFLOL.
I notice no one was game enough to put their name to that one.
FAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRKKKKKKKK!!
All this hysteria and no change!!!
Just fell offa my chair from laughing so hard!! well buger me! now where did my false teeth end up?
hahahahaha
57:43
what a hoot!
Chuckle quietly to oneself.
Two party preferred, no change. The art critic lost some ground to 5cent man. Oh what is the MSM to do now?
83% percent of Australians don’t want Brendan Nelson as PM……..you can’t spin it any other way. Bye Bye Brendan.!
Not time to bring out Tex Perkins yet!
Socrates it works like this- give the Libs a great week and then go after Nelson when the figures are bad. The Australian hates Nelson and want Turnbull and this is part of the strategy. Then we will support him to the hilt as a future leader.
fiztig – a genuine error, if only passing, of judgment on Rudd’s behalf. I guess his team would have learned. However I hope he doesn’t get sucked into playing the popularity game instead of doing what is necessary, even if unpopular. Doing unpopular if right things wont hurt him.
Any contest with a score of 67 to 17 is an absolute drubbing. No change in the two-party preferred result confirms that the government ministers aren’t seen as a Kevin Rudd support act – they are obviously well respected in their own right. The I’ll sleep very comfortably tonight.
On the Victorian By-election: It’ll be interesting to see if the Victorian Liberals will stand a candidate and what effect that will have on the Leadership power plays. Ballieu wanted to stand candidates last year and was overruled. Will it happen again?
And a 66% approval rating is somehow bad news?
You gotta love the anti-Labor bias of the MSM!
Let me guess, Shanahan tomorrow will be trumpeting Nelson’s stellar 17% rating.
Which is equal to WA Liberal Leader Troy Sniffwell
Kina 66
Exactly; Rudd shouldn’t go for populism. Taxpayer funded expensive populism was what people were sick of from Howard. Rudd took the right policies to the election and he should just stick to delivering them. If he does that, and the lack of principle and ideas in the opposition continues to be exposed, Labor will easily increase its majority.
Well it seems Rudd snuck through this little episode with little harm. Most of it was the MSM grossly misrepresenting the goings on however, there is a lesson to be learned and it seems it came free this time.
MSM will continue to tell the truth that suits their story:
OO headline reads RUDD PAYS PERSONAL PRICE: NEWSPOLL
This is a game and Labor the big winner
Tony Jones pathetic journo
So … Is the Honeymoon over?
Bye Bye Brendan.
FuelWatch will be driven to the back pages: MalcolmWatch will be the theme for the next fortnight.
Seems the most interesting thing in this newspoll is that mumble got it first
Well done Mr Brent
66%
2 to 1
It’s too early to tell really, but what if in the last week we’ve had a little bit of wheat and chaff sorting, and that the antics have actually polarised people to one side or the other? If 66% represents now solid support then the MSM and LP have screwed the pooch.
It’d the difference in movement between PPM and party support that I find intriguing.
Fagin: spot on! How are you mate, we miss you over at the ozelections board!
Dont agree Fagin, the MSM will go with the PPM drop because it suits their narrative. They’ll ignore the no change in 2PP
Any chance of a thread specifically for the ongoing campaigns: the Kororoit by-election, the Gippsland by-election, and the Lennon countback?
Any actual helpful updates tend to get lost amongst the dull political bickering if they’re thrown in these all-purpose threads.
Onimod 57
I agree – finding an alternative to cheap petrol for every V8 is the real answer. Also as I said on the previous thread, I think there is a serious issue looming with jobs in the auto industry. I don’t think its exaggerating to say that most of them could go in 2-3 years if we don’t change strategy fast. Thats 10000 jobs in Victoria and 5000 in Adelaide. Even if the plan is to give up and retrain those people for areas of skills shortage that needs to be prepared for now. (That maybe a good idea too, given how surprisingy little pain there has been here in Adelaide since Mitsubishi closed.)
So the result is Rudd lost a little skin, but that’s the sum total of the damage!
I agree the government has to make sure these leaks don’t occur again, but otherwise still steady as she goes!
60 vera
that’s your classical eduction coming to the fore eh?
(my daily language is much blue-er than my posting one…I agree)
Kina @ 18 -
I guess it is just as well most people are totally ignorant of politics otherwise every bad government would lead to its obliteration as a party.
Sadly, the truth of that is the GWB’s 30% approval rating. Easily the worst pres is modern history, and arguable at least the equal worst ever, single handedly responsible for his country’s greatest foreign policy/national security disaster, the Katrina (non)rescue debacle and possibly the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression and yet about 30% of the American public still think he’s doing a good job!!! That is some rust! LOL!
Mr Squiggle Says:
June 2nd, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Marky marky,
IF Brendan can pick up 10 points over a measly 5 cents of petrol, how much more will he pick up when he hits on a real issue of substance
he only picked up 5 points
And now begins the emissions trading – fuel price increase scare. Would be interesting to know whether Newspoll asked the fuel q before the TPP ones. However given the TPP results (ho hum same old same old), the political weight being given to the issue of fuel prices in the electorate isn’t much.
What a joke! No change in the 2PP.
The MSM will obviously spin the PPM figures which will mean that the real big loser is that lightweight Turnbull because now he is going to have to wait longer LOL.
Let’s put the 17% PPM figure into perspective. Simon Crean was rating in the mid 20’s and was never given any go by the hacks.
The real story to come out of these polls is that the MSM are becoming less and less relevant by the month.
81 Socrates
Fingers crossed Penny has a job lined up for them later this year?
I have been pleasantly surprised by the apparently positive reaction from the redundant workers in Adelaide. I haven’t looked too deeply into the why yet.
The end of the auto industry is probably another one of those net positive results for the government given the level of subsidy. The subsidy alone is probably enough to do something very constructive with.
I wish Labor would just confront the fuel price issue head on. Wait a month for the tax cuts to kick in, then just say that there is no way they are going down again, and people need to plan for that. Help them adjust, even the morons who bought big fat ugly 4wds, but make them understand this isn’t going away.
50
Kina Says:
“Actually if Turnbull really is a moderate then we should hope that he does have some success as leader.”
I don’t know about federally but here in NSW the president, vice president and finance director of the Liberal party all quit last week and the hard right have taken over.
“Their resignations pave the way for the Right faction to take more control of the party.
Mr Selig will be replaced in the interim by either Scot Macdonald or Nick Campbell, both of whom are from the hard Right.”
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/lib-meltdown-as-top-officials-quit/2008/05/28/1211654089003.html
86 dave
good question on the order of questions – does anyone know?
The equal numbers may in fact cover a shift away from the government of 5% (matching PPM) was in fact balanced by a shift of 5% to the government.
While Nelsons numbers are pretty irrelevant, but 10% of people changing their party support is pretty damn significant.
I actually don’t believe this is what happened entirely, but with the minimal data thee pollsters deliver, it’s possible.
Even 56/44 is a bad result for the Liberals as far as I am concerned. With all the negative publicity for Rudd in the past week they should’ve been getting at least 54/46 for this poll.
The Liberals need to start thinking big picture sometime. They cannot just jump on each issue as it comes.
Is it worth firing off an email to Shamaham, just to rub it in?
N.S.W: the state government is about to hand down a budget containing huge increases in infastructure, health and education spending, that’ll help Labor!
A beautiful result for Rudd Labor.
Still streets ahead on 2PP and Nelson looking (slightly) less worse as Oppo Leader.
Neslson still in charge. Rudd still ascendant. Labor still ahead by the same country mile they were ahead last time? Turnbull fu%&ed and The Libs a dismal last?
Break out the champaggeney.
A beautiful set of numbers.
93
Progressive
That would mean acknowledging his existance – something he gets a kick out of with his increasing redundancy – I’d ignore him just to rub it in.
Onimod
As for the subsidy – its a lot more than that! The previous government’s car industry plan had $6 billion in assistance and tax rebates committed to it! Thats a lot of money to waste if it goes down anyway. Better to give them a new job with a future.
I don’t know all the details but from what I have heard, the Mitsubishi workers situation in Adelaide is really not that bad. First, full marks to Mitsubishi for paying a severance package that included all entitlements and severance benefits sought by the union, so most people have not been left stranded. Second, there really is a demadn for skilled workers. Anyone who was a qualified engineer, mechanic, electrician or even machinist has jobs in mining or defence to apply for. Mitsubishi workers had a good reputation for reliability so even low skilled workers are being offered work in other industries.
That is really the point – everyone agrees the economy is at full employment. If there is ever a time when you can shift workers from one industry to another with minimal pain this is it. So bite the bullet now, when we ‘ve got some alternative unfilled jobs and the cash to retrain people.
66% is pitiful. The honeymoon is clearly over…
93 Progressive
That’s be pretending his journalistic skill in some way measures up to your common sense – I wouldn’t bother.
On a serious note, I don’t know why anyone expected a bounce for the Libs out of all the hoo-haa.
Howard often had bad leaks and they rarely ended up with any appreciable change in support, especially when Crean was the man.
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