UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.
Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.
Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.
541 Comments
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Ooohh this is a bad result…
If Brendan’s results go up but the 2PP remains unchanged, the Liberals might realise that it isn’t their leader that’s the problem.
I don’t want that. If they realise that the problem goes deeper than their leader, they might do something about it.
If they just keep switching leaders in an ongoing search for the Messiah, then it’ll be a couple of hundred years before they’re electable.
From their point of view, trashing their economic credibility to get Brendan a ‘bounce’ (probably because a few of the undecideds actually realised that there WAS a leader of the opposition) is a huge price to pay.
So – the honeymoon is definitely over – everyone who’s anyone has said so.
So, does that mean they’re going to stop telling us that this is the case?
I hope so.
The government should basically;
ignore the MSM,
treat the opposition with very little respect, and
go on doing what they were elected to do – implementing their plans for the nation.
An anti-climax. After Rudd’s worst week still the same 2PP and the same primary vote. Yeah he lost a little skin PPM and Approval rating but not very much. “Honeymoon” over? I wonder if these journalists realise the crap they write outside of their little”majic” circle.
Best lesson to be learnt is not to be overconfident and not to take things/people for granted. Rudd has proved he is a fast learner.
But I still think Rudd was happy to loose a little short term popularity for the long term advantage of making sure people understood that petrol prices were a Global phenomen. Could be wrong in assessing his intentions but that is what has been the outcome.
Nelson seems to be doing very well for the Labor Party!
Onimod: you’re too kind!
Steve K: good advice, if we ignore Dennis, he might just fade off into nothingness!
I wonder if Nelson will be blathering on about Fuel Watch tomorrow, maybe it’s time the Libs adopted a new strategy, assuming there is one LOL
97 Socrates
I suspect it was on Newsradio where I heard a worker thanking Mitsubishi for his time in employment and the skills they’d given him. The reporter was searching for the grim tale of death and just didn’t get it.
It’s hard to see the same thing happening in Geelong. Jobs there are always an issue in the meeja and were definitely so during the election. It’s hard to see that same forward looking ex-Mitsubishi employees answer coming from there.
It’s startling how out of touch with the Australian community(the majority anyway) the MSM has been for some time! Silly me, I thought things might change after the election, but obviously not!
Watching Jones interview Gillard on Lateline here in Adelaide now and I admire Gillard’s restraint for not getting angry with him. The questions are so slanted Nelson’s press secretary might as well have written them. “Will you compensate people for carbon taxes” – he must have asked it five times, with no counterbalancing questions on the downside of nothing changing. Does Jones own a V8 4WD?? Gillard to her credit played it with a straight bat.
Oops – the Newspoll performance didnt quite run to script.
The honeymoon was over, Rudd was rooted, some even wandered out to the periphery of credibility and talked about Rudd being a one term wonder – all over last weeks parliamentry politics! Parliament for gawds sake. Who the hell watches it, apart from a few of us poor suckers?
These guys couldnt find their arse with a map.
What a disgrace.
105 Progressive
at 1% per cent I expect Nelson to be offering a full twenty cents off petrol tomorrow – how could he go wrong?
Vera – true, the Liberal party screeches even further to the right. Turnbull’s job might be to get them elected then get dumped.
Socrates – Yes, we watched about two minutes of Jones asking Julia how the AFP were going to conduct their investigation (”Mrs Smith, your husband has been stabbed. How do you think the police will find the culprit?”) and turned back to watch ‘West Wing’ as being far more politically intelligent.
109
All right Possum – where is the graph showing what’s going on with static support and varying PM preference?
PPM and party support didn’t seem to correlate too well during the election either IIRC.
Socrates @ 81 –
Spent most of the afternoon with a former big cheese of one of the biggest parts supplier to the car makers and he predicts that industry will be finished here within a couple of years with parts coming from China (many already do), Ford may be gone in the same time frame.
He expects Holden will survive longer because their big engined rear-wheel drives are popular in countries where petrol prices aren’t a factor, but he’s less confident that GM will be able to adapt fast enough to the changes that $200+/barrel oil will force on the American industry.
As evidence he points to what is the biggest selling car in automotive history, the Ford F series pickups and their GM equivalents. Huge engines, p*ss poor brakes and leaf spring suspensions only marginally better than those fitted to the wagons that settled the American west. These are the American industry’s bread and butter bringing in most of the profit. Changing from them to knocking out smaller fuel efficient cars will require massive investment and a wholesale change in management culture which may well be beyond them in the time available.
Possum
If the honeymoon is over but the warmth hasn’t ended, does this mean the opposition now starts referring to the dangers of “the seven year itch” for Rudd and the electorate?
Onimod
Yes Geelong is a problem. Still, all the ingredients for heavy scale manufacturing are there. No reason they can’t make something else.
If only Jones was as intelligent as he is suave (his press claims, not mine)
I don’t think he can see past the end of his desk.
Short term, small minded dolt.
Julia and team are not going to be baited – it’s all about character now.
Perhaps the 17% PPM result shows that some of the 37% Primary Liberal supporters (43% TPP) have decided to stop whacking Nelson? My feeling is that the biggest loser since the budget has been Turnbull.
Seriously though, did anyone think that last weeks fuel hoopla was going to significantly affect how people would vote or their perception of how well (or bad) Labor are doing. People know fuel is going up and that this is beyond the control of the Government (the Newspoll results confirm this). So while they may have thought Rudd did promise to keep prices low, they didn’t believe him, but voted for him anyway (or at least 53% did). Breaking a promise in relation to something that was never within your control is generally forgivable – acknowleging though that it is pretty dumb to promise such a thing in the first place (and yes, I know he didn’t promise to keep the fuel and grocery prices low, but this is all about perception).
The slight hit to Rudd’s ppm and satisfaction rating may reflect the above, his comments about nothing more that he could do, the GST on fuel response (even though this was foreshadowed before Nelson’s ‘match me if you can in the dumb policy stakes’ 5c excise reduction comments) or his apparent timidness to respond to the issue in the first place and kill it off (or a combination of the above). At any rate, more people still think Rudd is the better PM than would vote for Labor so the figures aren’t bad for the ALP or, by association, Rudd; if he wasn’t being compared against himself, there would really be nothing bad in the figures at all. Nelson’s approval ratings are still in the negative (when comparred to his disatisfaction), and there are as many people who don’t know whether they prefer Rudd or Nelson than actually prefer Nelson. All in all, pretty crap result for the Libs given all the media support and air they got but not unsurprising when you look at the actual issues they supposedly won the fight on.
The MSM may as well have lined up Rudd and Nelson against the kitchen door and marked off their heights and used that as the politically measure for the fortnight… at least it would have been more accurate in measuring the change in the polls (yep, no change in height between this week and a fortnight ago)
all the comments about “the anti-labor bias of the MSM” are are bit lame. Yes, the Australian is in a weird place, but it always has been, so what? As for the petrol price issue, the ALP is the government now. Of course the media is going to be looking for news, and the only real news as far as the mass media is concerned is bad news. So any trivia that can be beaten up will be, just as it has been with all previous governments.
Rudd may well last ten years as prime minister, who knows? but the thing about the last week or two is that previously he had seemed politically invincible. it’s only a tiny scratch now showing on his shiny new paintwork, but it’s the first scratch, and it has some significance because of that. yes, the public discussion of the petrol price issue is bizarre and trivial given the wider context of energy demand growth and carbon emssions, but even though Rudd didn’t actually promise to lower petrol prices, he banged on and on about the hardship caused by rising fuel and grocery prices to “working families” during the election campaign. if the semi-ignorant populace he played up to during the election campaign now feel just a little bit annoyed at his attitude, and the continuing rise of petrol and grocery prices – about which Rudd can do very little, in reality – it’s just desserts, I say.
Mayoferral
Yes the parts situation is very frustrating. Even without the petrol price problem I think they would be in big trouble from imports with the changes in the dollar value alone. The one thing that might help them is Chinese inflation.
I remain skeptical on Holden and the big RWD cars and utes. Why do we assume the export markets will hold up? There is no law of physics that says they will. Eventually oil prices must go up in OPEC countries too, and then the gig is up.
My intro comment in 118 should have been qualified to refer to rational, non MSM commentator types – I realise that some of the MSM commentators probably did believe, in all honesty, that the polls would swing. I guess the movements in the Rudd PPM and satisfaction ratings will have to do and they will wring them for all they are worth. God help us all.
Unreal really these headlines, Rudd Pays personal Price, Slumps to lowest level since election…….
HELLO His PPM is 66% The Rodent’s highest ever was a one off 67% fercrissake!
I wonder if they can see how pathetic they look? Is it just a game of attacking Rudd or do they actually believe what they are writing or maybe is it clinical denial in action. It is clearly ridiculous to run the Rudd pays personal price line.
Though they did inadvertently send the message that they believe Rudd should be higher.
Vera, the MSM have to save face somehow. They’ve got this all horribly wrong.
Do we know what the PM’s satisfaction rating is and if it has gone down from last time?
We must concede though they did run with the PPM line when it was showing Rudd at 70%, so I suppose they are being consistent, although BS.
115
The problem I suspect in Geelong is that they don’t believe in much else. The Ford motorcar is a very strong icon and identity hook. Mitsubishi is an entirely different brand. Sure they CAN do something else, but the social consequences are pretty big. I’m not sure that anything climate related is a good fit down there, but it’s the obvious choice in this country.
114 Mayo
The vehicle is a very powerful symbol, and even more so the further you are isolated from urbanity. I just cannot see middle America giving their massive vehicles up – they’ll have to be taken. Australia is not so different.
In cultural circles there are methods of measuring cultural lag. Tough subject, because you’re automatically labelled an elitist just for having a view. In some areas even our most advanced capital cities are possibly decades behind parts of Europe, and some areas are so far behind it’s hard to judge. Same problems in America. This creates massive problems when change occurs, because the differences are magnified and exacerbated, and the opportunities afforded to similar individuals in different places can be starkly different, leading to social unrest. Sometimes the change can be minimised and sometimes it can even create shortcuts or ladders (snakes and ladders – eg eastern Europe is enjoying a technological revolution before they are experiencing the devaluation of the family group in deference to individualism). The thing that concerns me is that for the last 12 years we have had a government that has traded on the status quo and actively devalued progression, and almost taught that it’s not a necessity. After 12 years of pause or reversion I can’t see anything but conflict ahead. Very those who voted ALP realise how painful some of the things they voted for will actually be.
This fuel thing has been absolute chicken-feed compared to the introduction of carbon tax. I don’t think that Rudd has time to plant the seeds and wait for the population to come around to side with him against the carbon industry on that one.
I’m very happy with this result and somewhat relieved to be honest.
119 Socrates
The other thing about those OPEC countries we regard as our expert markets is that they’re rapidly becoming technology and gadget junkies. Our old tech isn’t going to cut it when the ‘cool’ new hybrid equivalents become available.
Gary, #123
I don’t know Newspoll haven’t got it up on their site yet
Gary,
See James J #46 for links to the full tables. Rudd’s Satisfaction has dipped to 7 points to 56. Nelson also down 1 point, but pretty close to primary support at 35.
And the public servants’ working conditions must have been a huge factor as well, I don’t think.
Honestly, did Shanahan, Milne, Toohey and co. really think the plebs would give a tinker’s curse if those the media had portrayed as blood sucking parasites, on the taxpayers teat, for the last hundred years, were made to work harder?
In my view, their attempt to cannonise those they had previously demonised, in order to get Rudd, was a clear signal to the public that these guys, the journos, weren’t for real.
Their previous efforts at spinning came back to bite them on the bum!
Sorry,
Nelson down 1 to 36. Damage has been done to Rudd rather than a lift to Nelson, but he seems to be getting some credit for the damage in the PPM numbers.
128 Vera and 123 Gary
The links are up on Possum’s or Mumble’s
Rudd Satisfied/Dissatisfied is down from 63/23 to 56/30 (14% consistently uncommitted)
Nelson Satisfied/Dissatisfied is negligibly up from 37/39 to 36/40 (24% uncommitted)
Given that Rudd’s supporters aren’t even sure he’s done a good job, I’d say that the poll is a pretty reasonable result given a 100% negative MSM report on his performance.
Seems people either don’t outright, or don’t want to, agree with them.
(and everyone already beat me to it – must learn to type one day)
Hi onimod,
That Nelson’s satisfaction hasn’t changed is what makes me think his PPM increase of 5% is mainly Liberal voters who previously wanted to whack him out of the job and have enjoyed the past week.
134
Seems reasonable Tobe.
Newspoll could split those stats into party voting intention columns and tell us but I bet they won’t.
It could also be the view expressed in Ozblogistan that the rusted on ALP support aren’t happy with the way Kev allowed himself to get dragged down to Nelson’s game. They’re not happy with Kev, but it’s not going to change thier vote.
Or it could also be a combination of both.
Or it could be something none of us have picked up.
Anyway the good news is that the Liberals are now getting sucked into keeping Nelson at the very time he should have been turfed. Just keep him till the budget, just keep him till the next budget, just keep him till the next election…they never learn.
Is it just me, or is the 5% “jump” for Nelson, completely within he margin of error for 2 consecutive polls (2 x 3%) ?
So, move along people, nothing to see here…
This will actually encourage the Lib-Nats, and their apparatchiks in the conservative media to continue their desperate attacks on Rudd’s petrol policy, cabinet unity, etc. Because though the improvement in their poll ratings is only slight, it hasn’t hurt them any. And they’ve got nothing else to do.
That also makes sense onimod, I must admit I missed Keating this week, but I am a Keating fan. I think the GST stuff did blur the government position, and gave Nelson a leg up.
The LNP should dump Nelson now. They know he wont win but they don’t know if Turnbull will be any better and need to find out sooner rather than later. The longer they leave it the more entrenched Kev becomes.
Fortunately for Labor both Nelson and Turnbull look totally unconvincing when the speak or rant to the camera. In fact I find them a real political turn off.
In the 6 Newspolls since the election the Greens have maintained a consistent swing to be scoring 9-11%, about 2% gain since the election.
Oh and I wonder who would no longer be with us if there were a uniform swing of 4% plus to the ALP, as 57:43 suggests, if that was the vote at the next election?
I might go off and check out the pendulum.
About 20 seats in danger.
Wentworth and Sturt included.
That may be food for thought for the Libs considering the next leader.
From a union perspective, Kevin Rudd sucks.
But based on these results, and what we know of Australian electoral cycles, he’s got another 10 years.
the shameless Shamaham:
“Unmet promise fuels discontent
“PETROL has blown up in Kevin Rudd’s face.
“He’s still miles in front of Brendan Nelson and the Labor Party continues to sail along unperturbed by petrol prices heading north to $2 a litre.
“The real problem for Rudd is that competing messages have jammed him in the middle of public opinion and left him, personally, the loser.
“The latest Newspoll shows the Prime Minister’s personal ratings at the lowest they have ever been – although they would still be the envy of many a leader – but he’s lost his gloss.”
Lost his gloss on 66%???????
Is the Honeymoon over? …LOL!
Mr Shanahan is as predictable as ever, the skidmark on the bedsheet of impartial journalism!
Don’t know, Aussieguru01, but the lead SMH/Age political story is ‘Multiple orgasms on floor of parliament’ which might be sort of honeymoon related though it’s a very big stretch
Strangely Rudd barely gets a mention in either paper’s on-line edition. Seems only the murdoch rags and the ABC are interested in his ‘huge’ fall from grace
The problem is not that goose Shanahan. The problem is the media is a whole. Seems to be open season on the Rudd government.
cf, this business about the Fergusson leak, is a beat up. So is this “allleged implicit promise to lower petrol prices”-gate.
Why the beat up? Dunno. For some reason the media desperately wants the Rudd government to do something interesting, like cock up publicly.
I think the problem is somehow with the new government’s media management style.
Answering my own question, via advice from a small furry friend:
The MoE is only approx 3% for figures where there is a rough 50/50 split.
With Nelsons PPM of 12 and 17, the MoE is about 2% (because the further away from the 50/50 split that a result gets in an either/or question, the smaller the MoE becomes).
So it was a statistically significant improvement from 12 to 17
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