UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.
Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.
Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.
541 Comments
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Question – What is the chance of a PM maintaining a PPM rating of 70% in ANY week?
Not long ago the were talking about oil breaking the $100 / barrel, it then accelerated to $130 / barrel.
Since Rudd has come to power oil has gone up over 30%. If this had not have happened petrol prices would be doing their usual slow drift upwards. No government anywhere could have done anything meaningful with fuel prices.
Rudd did say that he could keep pressure on fuel prices and other prices, and the consistent reporting of it during the election certainly created the impression that Labor would keep prices down which is not what they promised.
Now if there had not been carnage in oil prices probably the Fuelwatch scheme would have delivered on his promise, if not decreasing prices then keeping pressure on outlets to not unduly increase prices. That I believe was Rudd’s original object before the election and before oil went to the extremes it now has.
Rudd always spoke in terms of keeping pressure downward pressure on prices by competition or by monitoring etc.
It has been the unsophiticated media that has not bothered to pick up on this and report it in its true context, and instead made it appear there was a promise to keep things down aka Howard’s interest rate promise.
Fortunately enough Australians are not so stupid to not realise that in an open market the govt can only work at the edges or work at amending the fundamentals which take time to flow through.
AND truly if the media have honestly openly presented the performances of the two parties to the public on the fuel prices issue then Nelson’s crew would have gone backwards.
Rudd’s error has not been in policy or parliamentary performance, only in dealing with a toxic press looking to make anything out of nothing.
I have a feeling the Coalition will definately gain around 10 seats at the next federal election.
Well to be fair you can hardly call cabinet leaks containing advice which might suggest flaws in the Government’s policy ‘nothing’. Unless you are suggesting they ought never have covered it in the first place.
Kina
“Rudd always spoke in terms of keeping pressure downward pressure on prices by competition or by monitoring etc.”
that’s true it’s the media that just keep trying to hammer their lies (that he said he’d bring down prices) home,
Another thing is that Rodent spent millions on propaganda, spinning his policies and lies with media help whereas Kev is keeping his word about being fiscally responsible therefore it is harder for him to get his messages out.
The MSM hate it when they get things wrong.
I’ve still got a copy of the ‘Herald Sun’ front page with the blazing headline “Hewson by a nose”. They were so keen to believe it that they printed the paper before the results were in.
From then on, the media turned on Keating savagely. He had won when he wasn’t supposed to and they vilified him for it.
I see much the same thing happening now. The great unwashed are not behaving the way they should be and must be put in their place.
With Keating, they had 13 years of past Government decisions etc to use as ammunition; they don’t have that with Rudd, so it’s a different ball game.
It will be interesting to see what happens IF the honeymoon (whichever one it is we’re on now) keeps chugging along.
Will the likes of Shanahahanahananan just chuck in the towel and make way for younger, more in touch journos; keep madly clutching at non existent straws and try and build grass houses out of them; or start commenting on what is actually happening?
Ahhhh “nothing like the smell of napalmed media in the morning”
Vera@15
Rudd is not spending too much on self promotion… yet. We’ll see what happens a year or two down the line.
I don’t think you can argue there’s no spin though.
Whilst it was annoying to hear ABC radio band on about a poll whacking (bad idea Rudd to use that term last week), despite no change in 2PP, if it keeps Nelson in the job, that’s the best outcome for Labor
Anyone giving the OO the time of day after their efforts over the past 18 months (not many judging by their ciruclation figures) deserves all they get! Funnythough, you;d think they might try being less biased to see if it improves their sales
The cabinet leaks were in regard to fuelwatch a scheme of minor effect in comparison to the accerating oil price. Indeed if they have the leaks then by all means report them – it is up to the government to explain which it did.
I notice on ABC radio AM program this morning they covered the Newspoll and presented it in a wholy negative light for Rudd. They did however remarkably fail to mention any figures at all! No TPP, no PPM, just talking about Rudd’s hit. AND they lovingly referred to the fuelwatch disaster or some such pejorative word.
The thing being that the fuelwatch machinations was no disaster, it was one invented in the media then the media reporting its own invention as fact.
Well it certainly wasn’t a disaster. The way some commentators are reacting to it it is as if FuelWatch will bring about the end of the world. Also, regardless of what anyone says now Rudd never promised to bring petrol prices or grocery prices down. However, papers will spin stories in whichever way they can to sell papers… and outrage at government decisions is more likely to sell papers than a balanced representation of the ‘facts’.
LTEP @ 158
Of course there is spin – it is politics after all. But that doesn’t mean that it is all spin which is what some in the MSM commentariat seem to be implying. Nelson and Turnbull freely admit that the 5c excise reduction was all about politics and not policy – now that is spin.
Also, BS is copping a whacking of his own over on his blog… a few of the regulars here contributing to the carnage.
Sorry Dave55, who is BS?
I guess BS will be happy, the more hits on the site the better for them.
BS is shanahan
When did Nelson and Turnbull admit the 5c excise reduction was not policy? To me, their even suggesting it shows how ridiculous and unelectable they are at the moment.
It’s true that that’s ridiculous as a policy proposal. In any case, if it was such a brilliant idea they would’ve done it years ago when they were in government.
Sorry should have been DS.
Don’t know what I’m thinking getting Dennis’s and brendan’s mixed up I think.
LTEP – Turnbull hasn’t committed to going to the next election with it and while Nelson has, he has never sounded comitted. Agreed that it was announced as policy but do you seriously believe that this is going to part of their policy platform leading into the next election? And if it is, this is the frst real policy that they have come up with since the loss and it is an absolute dog that has been bagged by every economist who has botherred to turn their mind to the issue. In one fell swoop, the 5c/L announcement has destroyed the ‘better economic manager’ platform that the Libs still had to call upon.
So yes, it was announced as a policy but I don’t believe it is, it is simply politics and not very good politics at that. As your comments indicate, they are disappointing their own supporters with crap like this.
Conspiracy theorists might say that the whole Fuelwatch fiasco was orchestrated at a time tha Rudd’s approval and PPM were at record highs, so that when they inevitably drop you could make it look like damage was done
How frustrating that the MSM has learnt nothing from the past 18 months. How not surprising is it. Why cant just one commentator say “The newspoll shows no change in 2PP”
Even ‘whoops, I got that one wrong’ would be nice…just once.
Dave55 I am not a Liberal Party supporter. Far from it. I can’t think of one thing that would make a person vote for them right now. Do they have a position on anything? I wouldn’t know.
Andrew I’m assuming if there had been a change in the 2PP they wouldn’t not be mentioning it.
i encourage all to post their love on Shanahan’s blog. I know its hard to read, but cant be left without the response it deserves. Not that it will make an difference.
Grattan and Carney in the Age have been more balanced. Interested to see how they will report this is the morning.
Heard Albanese on ABC, after Jon Faine built up the “slump”, disappointed that Albanese did not mention the 2PP, but just bought the bad opinion poll story
Labor doesn’t wan’t to be seen as arrogant, which is how it would be portayed if they start telling everyone this poll really isn’t bad at all. Better just to go with the BS. It will all be forgotten very soon anyway.
does brendan use brylcreme?
does malcolm practice speeches in front of the mirror?
is tony still wearing the sackcloth?
these are the REAL questions that grip the nation-pollsters take note
(well they would have more relevance anyway)
But LTEP that IS the story. Despite all the hysteria last week, the 2PP hasnt shifted
We all know it is a great result and so do Labor and, I would suggest, most in the MSM know it as well. They need to save face.
Nothing has really changed. Brendan is still disliked by the vast majority, Rudd is still liked by the vast majority and Labor would romp home in any election held now. End of story.
…and just imagine the cost of last weeks advertising.
Sure, brand awareness went up, but people still aren’t buying.
I wonder if it’s just a bad product? Nah, couldn’t be.
And on the government not responding to the MSM bait since last night – the MSM desperately wants to be seen as a second opposition party at the moment. It’s safer to treat them as though they really were just commentators rather then engage and legitimise them.
It’s better to let them take their bucket down into the hold and try to stop the titanic sinking. 2 birds, one stone and all that…
Is Dennis Shanahan the worst political journalist in the country?
At the risk of joining the Shana bashing pack here, I am still inclined to agree: http://tasmanianpolitics.blogspot.com/2008/06/sigh-opinion-poll-reporting.html
He’s a Barry Crocker!
I agree with Andrew Bolts comments.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/rudd_hurts_himself_more_than_labor/
I refuse to read Bolt or Shamaham for that matter.
John of Melbourne, the Liberals are on the way back from where though? Getting a preferred PM rating of 17% is really nothing to write home about.
Its amusing to read the other papers to put this poll in perspective. Even in the other News papers its not the lead story today. In the Advertiser it doesn’t even make the front cover (thanks to their incessant campaign to get a bilion dolar sporting stadium in the city) and in the Courier Mail drought breaking heavy rain in SE Qld has relegated it well back. In Sydney the NSW State budget today will se it dissappera off the radar tomorrow as well.
Dave55 Says:
June 3rd, 2008 at 10:46 am
Sorry should have been DS.
I think BS is a good acronym for Dennis!
For the Libs it’s a nothing poll no matter what Bolt or anyone else says. Commonsense tells you this.
haha – I amuse myself sometimes…
Dennis ‘I-am-a-sham’ is the ‘Wizard of Oz’
an extract from wikipedia:
“…Toto inadvertently exposes the great and powerful wizard as a fraud; they find an ordinary man hiding behind a curtain operating a bunch of buttons and levers. They are outraged at the deception, but the wizard solves their problems through common sense and a little double talk…
If you want to determine the real significance of this poll watch QT today and see which party is genuinely upbeat. The government is still very much in control.
So, no real change then?
What a surprise.
Poll is totally insignificant.
Rudd had an untidy week and a half – “whacking” was a silly choice of word, asking to be quoted back at him, and his mini-rant about the public servants last week was unfortunate in view of the tendency of a good proportion of people to resent “the boss” in all situations.
And I don’t think Fuelwatch is a winner for the Govt.
Still, the Libs would have to get rid of Nelson (for starters) to actually be going anywhere much.
192 Dyno – I really don’t think you get the reason Rudd spoke of the “whacking”. Everytime he has spoken about copping a pasting in the polls over some issue, even through last year, the pasting hasn’t eventuated. It’s his way of down playing expectations and when the “whacking” doesn’t eventuate he looks good.
As far a the public servants go the Libs gave the public service a bad name years ago. People thought of them as being sheltered and lazy. Michell on AW likes to speak of them as working hard looking out of the window. Anyone saying they are going to work them hard is not going to lose too many friends in most circles.
Fuelwatch may not be a winner but if this poll shows one thing it is that it is not a loser either.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23802239-29277,00.html
“The federal Workplace Authority says it has yet to finalise about 121,000 Australian Workplace Agreements (AWAs) which were submitted for approval under the previous government’s legislation”
the worstchoices gift that will keep on giving!
thats why the 2pp aint changed or wont significantly
13 years ago when I moved from the commercial world to government I notices an immediate fall in work rate of at least 50%. It seemed like the world was moving in slow motion. But there is a big difference in govt of course. They have to follow regulations every step of the way and create the paper trails – the process is often given more attention than the outcome. In the commercial world you can’t afford to work-to-rule if you want to compete, in govt it is kind of manadatory.
The pressure Rudd is putting those Canberra public servants under I gather would motstly be the executives and the professionals who I assume would be on pretty good salaries. Even as a junior in the commerical world I often worked 7 weeks and many times 24 hour days – no complaint, that was the norm. Can’t see why these guys can complain too much if they are getting remunerated.
#169
Agreed, Dave55. The 5c/L announcement will be an albatross around the neck of any Opposition Leader come the next election – irrespective of whether it’s still Lib policy by that time. If it is, they have to explain the big chunk it will take out of the budget. If it isn’t, they will have to defend why they are reneging on the 5c/L cut for drivers.
The irony is that the times during which the the 5c/L cut sounds most attractive is also the times during which it has the least political benefit should it be introduced. In a period of escalating oil prices, the 5c/L cut would be eaten up very quickly by the continued rise.
A 5c/L cut may seem wonderful on the day it’s introduced. But what if the price of petrol increased by 10c/L over the ensuing few weeks. By that time, the response from voters would be “What have you done for me lately?!” The benefit of a 5c/L cut is mostly psychological, anyway; and the political capital would be expended very quickly.
GB @ 193,
That’s how Rudd thought it would work, and in the short term maybe it has (though I am not convinced). In the long term, though, there’s nothing the press likes better than quoting a leader’s own words back at him. “Whacking” will be reasonably good fodder for them, don’t you think?
Fuelwatch is neither a winner or loser in itself. But Rudd created an expectation last year that he would “do something” about cost of living pressures. In the more complex world of Government, he’ll need to carefully manage the way back from that somewhat ambitious position.
Still, the Government’s still miles in front, by any measure.
Honest John @ 154
And which seats may they be? Some in New South Wales maybe because the state governmnet may amplify and damage they recieve. I would definatley expect labor to make futher gains in queeensland. Even if its only Dickson. Make Dutton shut up he is so anoyying
(Only still there because of those abomnible electoral laws i say)
It obviously will depend on when the elction is held and the narrative of the campaign. In W.A there is no where to go but up really. I doubt there will be any changes on way or the other in S.A at this stage. Corangamite will probably be in danger in Victoria and perhaps bass or braddon.
198 Scotty and Honest John 154
Possum has maps over at Crikey showing the seat losses for the LP on last night’s ’shocking’ figures.
2.5 years is a long time John – we mightn’t even be able to afford to drive to a polling booth by then….
Now at the blog Onimod
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/2008/06/03/the-parallel-universe-of-opinionatas/
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