UPDATE: The Australian reports no change on two-party from last fortnight, and only a moderate shift in preferred prime minister from 70-12 to 66-17. Full press release from Mumble here, and further polling on petrol price issues here.
Peter Brent at Mumble says he hopes to be first to air with tonight’s eagerly awaited Newspoll result. We have also had a poll today from newcomers Essential Research (who a fortnight ago produced encouraging post-budget intelligence for the government), which shows Labor’s two-party lead down from 61-39 to 56-44. If I heard correctly from SBS, it also showed the Prime Minister’s approval rating down from 67 per cent to 60 per cent. Interestingly, 50 per cent of respondents said Peter Costello and Alexander Downer should retire.
Other news: Former Victorian Police Minister Andre Haermeyer has announced he is quitting politics, initiating a by-election in his rock-solid Labor seat of Kororoit.
541 Comments
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200 PC
“Journo Juice” – love it (what’s the level of tax on it?)
Q-time
just fell off my chair laughing – Julia just warned the opposition thus:
“…I’m just warming up…”
” she is going to blow ”
” the fangs”
“AHHHHHHHHH”
Nothing wrong with constructive criticism of Rudd, but today’s AUSTRALIAN is a virtual love in for the Liberal Party! If it wasn’t for its excellent sports coverage and Saturday magazine, I wouldn’t bother touching that rag!
And watching QT this afternoon, one thing struck me: the member for Bass is hot! She’s sitting where they used to put Katie Ellis: the eye candy factor for blokes!
Socrates @ 186 –
Its amusing to read the other papers to put this poll in perspective. Even in the other News papers its not the lead story today. In the Advertiser it doesn’t even make the front cover (thanks to their incessant campaign to get a bilion dolar sporting stadium in the city)
Thanks for bring that up. Am I the only one ticked off that Rann is giving $100 million to the SANFL for Footy Park? Its not as if they (or the AFL) are on their uppers!
197 Dyno – I think you are making too much of Rudd’s terminology in this case and what the press will do with it. I just don’t believe it will comeback to haunt him, why would it?
“Rudd created an expectation last year that he would “do something” about cost of living pressures.” Absolutely he did but he also made it plain many times there was NO SILVER BULLET. He is, according to this poll, given credit for having a go.
The last lot did bugger all and everyone knows it. There is nothing to comeback from.
204 Progressive – funny you should say that about the member for Bass, I was thinking exactly the same thing while watching QT.
Once again I sent an e-mail to Gerard McManus of the Herald Sun. I pointed out how this Newspoll was good news for the government. He replied – “Putting that aside, I actually agree with you that today’s poll is good for the Government.
Kevin07 has taken some skin off his knee but is otherwise fine and will probably recover quickly.” I just hope he conveys this message in his next article.
I think I’ve been too harsh in my criticism of Gerard. It’s the organisation he works for that gets up my nose.
Gary: great minds think alike?
Interesting today there was a lot more of Julia and not so much Kev!
Interest rates on hold and a bloke on Sky business tipping them to fall before the end of the year, he says ANZ tipping 2 rate rises before end of year are on another planet.
not sure if it was this bloke
”The RBA remains on track to begin a cycle of interest rate cuts during the December quarter,” Mr Koukoulas said.
http://business.smh.com.au/rba-rate-relief-may-not-be-far-off-20080603-2l11.html
Ouch Brenda!
And here in NSW business like the state budget. no joy here for the Libs either
“The NSW Business Chamber has praised the state budget, saying it delivered a trifecta of reduced taxes, record infrastructure spending and improved social spending.”
http://news.smh.com.au/business/business-group-praises-nsw-budget-20080603-2l60.html
Yes and didn’t she perform well? The opposition targetted her and she hit them for 6. It was obvious to me which side thought it had come out best in today’s polling.
The Coalition will gain a minimum of 11 seats in Queensland at the 2010 Federal Election because Brendan Nelson is a Monarchist and Kevin Rudd is a Republican. Queensland is Monarchist heartland. The Coalition will also gain 2 each in WA and TAS. The states of NSW, VIC, SA, NT and ACT will remain unchanged.
212
what a shame that Allbull will be leader aye?
Honest John do you really think there will be an 8% swing against Labor in Qld? To put it mildly your dreaming.
Ironic that in order to protect their economic credentials the Liberal Party ended up having to attack and undermine the heads of Treasury, RBA and the ACCC, appointed under their government.
212
John – with a small wager you, your children and grandchildren will be able to retire on that supposition.
I suggest you make a bet and post the evidence of it here.
Why did those so-called monarchists vote ALP in the last election eh?
Honest John @ 212
Are you serious, not gonna happen, especially w.A. There is no where to go but up. Especially if that gerymander is undone in the redistribution. AS a non queenslander i can not comment on the effect of that but if its not on the re election agenda i can not see it affecting it in the slightest. I do think macro and kitchen table economics would have a far greater bearing. And the parochial vote for the 2 local native suns would be stronger now they are the incumbents and don’t feel and obligation to the previous government anymore.
Honest John is speaking with the same forked tongue as his namesake. Such BS.
Brenda asked in QT will the govt give the windfall profits from petrol tax back to pensioners or something similar.
What windfall profits? The Federal Govt. gets 38c a litre no matter what the price.
Or is the GST now a Federal Tax? Howard spent years saying it was a state tax.
Brenda you are a dill.
Possum @ 200
Lovely work. Let’s hope sergeant Sham gets an eyeful – both of your opinions and of the dozens of articulate and almost universally condemnatory (hence embarrassing) comments on his blog. I particularly enjoyed your post scriptum observation that “there hasn’t been a comment since 10:35am and it’s 2:50pm as I write this.”
Has the sergeant underestimated the intelligence of his readership? If so, is it the first time that this has occured?
Or maybe I’m not aware of the complete context – that is to say, maybe my perception is off. Maybe the sergeant is, in fact, a sensitive, fair-minded editorialist whose opinions transcend petty partisanship and focus squarely on The Truth. Maybe he is not a smasher and basher or an intellectually impaired Zig pining for his disgraced Zag (the former PM, last seen scratching around Wollstonecraft in a turkey costume). And since it hurts him to hear it said so, he reserves the right to censor his cruel detractors.
I honestly couldn’t say.
212
Honest John
That assumes that incumbency–and some pork barreling–counts for nothing. Further it assumes that the Republican referendum is held this term: I would think it is low down in the priorities!
205 MayoFeral
Now that you mention it, I don’t know which I dislike more – the SA government giving $100 million for Footy Park or the Advertiser/opposition demanding to waste even more money (whch we don’t have) to waste on a billion dollar inner city stadium. Don’t people here know the record of government funding of sporting stadiums in all other Australia states? It is always a disaster. They never repay anything, and often need further topping up just to maintain them.
In this case if funding Footy Park avoids wasting more on a central stadium then I can live with it. But I certainly think there should eb conditions attached – like SANFL matching with 2%% or preferably 50%, and being responsible for any cost overruns.
Budgeted net operating surplus of $809 million in 2008-09
Gross state product growth of 4¼% in 2008-09
Unemployment rate of 3¾% in 2007-08 and 2008-09
And HJ thinks Labor will lose seats. Ha ha ha.
Vera 210
That is exactly why Rudd and Swan need to hold their nerve on fuel prices. We can’t afford to reduce them significantly without damaging the budget, and their effect on household budgets is relatively small, despite the rhetoric from the truck and landcruiser brigade. Let them ride bikes. Whereas if Labor get (Howard induced) inflation under control through a disciplined budget (so far so good) they will be unassailable at the next election, even if the opposition finds a competent leader. It will also prove that the inflation was due to the drunken sailor spending the mining boom profits in a politicised and wasteful fashion.
Talking about seat gains and losses at this time of the political cycle is folly. Who knows what issues will be running then. I suspect the government will be returned but who knows.
219 ruawake
I can sense the surfacing of the “it’s not cool to be smart” meme on the horizon if we’re not careful.
“Being educated is bloody elitist, I’m telling you. Elitist!
Sounds like a job for ute-man. Emo-man, have you seen ute-man anywhere?”
Onimod
Exactly. Perhaps a slogan “stupid people have a right to be PM too” might help the current shadow cabinet?
227 Socrates
To suggest otherwise would be discriminating now, wouldn’t it?
labor just need a friendly equivalent of glenn ‘the human urinal’ milne to leak selectively to. once they react and cultivate a few media pets they’ll be able to manipulate the news cycle and eventually start to believe their own propaganda and go the way of howard. *sigh* maybe instead of a fuel tax cut we should turn all the OO journos and upper tier public servants into bio-diesel.
GB @ 225,
Agree with all that. I’d put money on Rudd increasing his majority in 2010. But 2+ years out – who really knows for sure?
One thing I do reckon is that the Libs will have someone more credible than Nelson within a year or so.
230 Dyno – “One thing I do reckon is that the Libs will have someone more credible than Nelson within a year or so.” I agree with you on that. Nelson will never be PM IMHO.
I don’t have much time for Mark Reilly on channel 7 news but at least he mentioned that the government still holds a very healthy lead over the opposition in the TPP stakes while at the same times saying Rudd’s popualarity has fallen 15 points from its peak (how manipulative is that?). Rudd’s satisfaction peak by the way was in April. In comparison to last Newspoll it was a 7 point drop. 15 obviously sounded better to Mark.
Promo for Barcelona Tonight
“pensioners being forced to move overseas, better pensions better living!”
Channel 9 not to miss out on the negative slant on Rudd is running a poll – ‘have you lost faith in Kevin Rudd’ an invitation of course the hardened Liberal voters and you Ls to hit the poll.
The Newspoll obviously disappointed the Liberal media lot. They thought stating the honeymoon was over would make it so. Having got another bad poll the ABC didn’t even mention the figures when talking about it on AM.
A decade of Howard has left a fair smattering of rancid right-wing journalists throughout media. How long do we have to wait before they drop of the tree rotten and stinking? I reckon Milne has reached that point already and Shamam really is starting to stink up the place. I he goes well with the diseased carcass of the Liberal party. Poor old Sham, still trying to breath life into Howard’s putrid body. So of these guys only had jobs because they were willing to prostitute themselves for Howard, now they have gotten used to the depravity they know nothing else.
Vera @ 233
Same pensioners crap in Adelaide. Wonder how many that go (if indeed they are going at all – could be a 7 network stunt) will be back here in a very short time.
You can imagine just how different the media would be behaving if Howard had won the election.
It should be obvious to everyone, regardless of their persuasions, that Denis Shanahan is nothing other than a pom pom boy for the Coalition. It was ever thus and that is how it is going to be in the future. His equivalent of the light on the hill is a candle for John Howard and a seat at the front of the plane on Rudd’s next jolly. Neither is going to happen. Shanahan should be ignored and pitied, in that order. Lack of relevance is killing him and it is on show every single day on a national forum.
That is all.
enjaybee @ 235
only the rich Rodent lover types having a hissy fit I reckon
how are they going to get these “better pensions” OS being aussies I’d like to know?
Kina @ 234
Just another attempt by the MSM to create a perception. The same meaningless poll was conducted on the ninemsn website with 47000 odd saying that they had lost faith and 37000 odd saying they hadn’t. This result is of course at variance with Newspoll and as we all know these reply type polls are invariably wrong but nevertheless the MSM keep on conducting them regardless.
Vera
The old bloke going to the Phillipines should do very well I don’t think but perhaps he had an alternative reason. A young bride perhaps.
The thing that’s got me about the reporting of this poll, and again, particularly the ABC, is that the Coalition would have been just about obliterated if an election were held. They’re not even back at the actual election results. But, nooo. It’s all about PPM figures, as if that meant anything. I expect nothing else from the OO, but the ABC’s reporting is rubbish.
I am sure there are a number of cheaper countries to live – good luck with your dental, health care, sanitary, transport etc needs.
I don’t ever remember a four point drop in the PPM ratings for el rodente ever exciting the journalists from, in particular, News Ltd, the shockjocks and TV news bulletins.
Cuba – but hang on that’s a SOCIALIST Country – these poor dears would be aghast at that
Hey maybe the pensioners going OS are the one’s that got adopted on last weeks Barcelona tonight.
Vera @ 245
Pardon my ignorance but why is TT referred to as Barcelona Tonight?
Watch and learn
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liG438RkKlI
GB at 208, cant believe that response from McManus, I bet he wont put it in the paper- and if not, a letter to the letters page is in order
imagine what the 2PP would be if we had a balanced media??
and Roy Orbison, couldnt agree with you more (except I thought you were dead)
Frank Calabrese @ 247
Thanks for that. Another reason why I have no time for David Richardson.
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