The headline says “CNN projects Obama clinches nomination”, but during what in many ways has sounded like a concession speech, Clinton has declared: “I will be making no decisions tonight”.
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
2,132 Comments
Screw it. Pop the champagne corks anyway.
Can we finally get on with beating McCain now?
Darling Edward (from previous thread):
Fair enough that you think BHO is unelectable. We’ll know the answer to that in a few months.
What I find bizarre is the weird wish-fulfillment stuff that you and the Troika have repeatedly swished across these posts – that the superdelegates should ignore the Democrat’s party processes and endorse the less-voted-for candidate – completely ignores the ruptures and fall-out that such a position entails.
BHO has raised more money than any presidential candidate ever, from the largest number of individual donors ever. His candidacy has massively increased primary turnout, especially among young and black Americans. These people will vote in November.
Had the supers been dumb enough to make your wishes real, the fissure in the Democratic Party would, I reckon, guarantee a McCain win. HRC couldn’t win the race fairly, and thus she could never win at all.
PS: nominations for favourite r/R/Won-ism of the primaries? My vote goes to “comaparitively gentile”.
What an insular, selfish “it’s all about me” speech.
Once again the Clintons show what a steaming pile of selfish shit they are.
Good riddance to them and their cronies the Bush’s.
And now she is playing ‘Simply the Best’ in a moment reminiscent of David Brent’s motivational speech moment in The Office.
Unbelievable.
It’s still all about Hillary.
Such grace, such style, such delusion and narcissm.
And such an embarrassment to women.
Pancho!
LOL:
David Brent…perfect.
And Bill is her Gareth.
Obama has the numbers and is the nominee. Game Over.
If the other team wants to keep running around the field after the siren has sounded then good for them. The winning team is moving on to the next game.
There you are. She’s basically saying “FFFF U Barack Obama”!!! So what do you do now my lovely?
She doesn’t need to make a decision. The people have decided. Thats how democracy works. I was hoping for Clinton but anyway time to move on. Good luck Barak against McCain.
Despite having been a Clinton supporter I don’t think Obama is unelectable. Also I am quite disturbed by these “either my candidate or I’m not voting” democrats. McCain is not as evil as Bush but he is still stupid and the US economy is a mess. Democrats, whether Obama or Clinton supporters, should just suck it up, work together, and remember that the world needs a US president that is not hostage to big oil. Plus, several members of the prvious adminsitration need to be jailed, and McCain won’t do that.
Finns@9 – laugh.
Hillary may be winning SD but she’s losing Custer County, which contains the site of Litle Big Horn – Custer’s last stand. How appropriate!
Obama
http://cspan.org/watch/cs_cspan2_wm.asp?Cat=TV&Code=CS2
Socrates -
a man (I assume) of honour, despite your disappointment.
A few others around here could take a leaf out of your book.
Out of interest given your preference for Hillary , did your opinion of her change throughout the campaign?
Obama has taken the stage.
We will know in about two minutes whether or not it’s the exact same speech as leaked to the media. Which was a pretty poor effort if it was, kinda takes the fun out of it
Crowd is already going nuts, very stark difference to the Clinton crowd. Not unsurprisingly of course.
Seems a very low turn out in South Dakota with probably only 100,000 total turningout to vote
Ok, and now the crowd just won’t shut up.
Seriously people. Things to do, people to see.
Now Obama is individually thanking each and every one of his immediate family members. Slowly moving on to his staff, team, supporters, blade of grass he stepped on outside, the mosquito which is hovering above his left shoulder…
And now we have confirmation that it is the speech he leaked to the media a few hours ago.
Speech is here for those who haven’t found it yet.
Seems the leaked speech:
‘I will be the Democratic nominee’
Deafening cheers.
No VP For Hillary after that performance!
A huge cheer for HIllary from the Obama crowd.
Compare the class and graciousness of Obama’s speech with the pathetic selfishness of Billary’s speech. That’s why he won.
There you go. Hillary will be Health Secretary.
Come on, say it, say it: i will sign Kyoto
“And oh, by the way, he has crossed the threshold of delegates to claim the nomination. Just after the polls closed in both states, 28 people –_ with a total of 26.5 votes — pledged their votes to him.”
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/season-finale/index.html?hp
The US Senate would need to ratify it. No chance.
blah, blah, blah, blah, blah …. he can indicate the real change by 4 simple words: i will sign Kyoto. i will support him 120%
Now that he doesn’t need to fight Hillary, he’s going to chew McCain up and spit him out.
Jen
On Hillary, my view changed a little, though it was perhaps more that my opinion of Obama grew over time. I think (and still do) that Hillary CLinton is capable and could do the job, plus as a woman she has never gotten a fair go with US media and religeous bigots. But I think it got to her and I regret her having gone negative.
As for Obama, at first I thought he was too light weight and just making populist statements without being able to fulfill expectations. I still have some worries in that regard. He is not lightweight but very smart. However to win the nomination he has appealed to the hopes of some people who have impossible demands – e.g. people in mid-west states who want their jobs saved, even though they are linked to protected, obsolete and heavily polluting industries. The only way they can be saved is if they are protected even more, but the US is in debt so it can’t afford to carry them. Obama is at some point going to have to level with them and say their jobs can’t be saved. What they really need is help (retraining etc) to change jobs to new industries.
That being said, I really believe either Obama or Clinton can beat McCain. As long as all democrats are constructive and get behind him, it should be automatic. Unfortunately for US citizens, there is still plenty more bad economic and other news that will hit them before November (Afghanistan could be a real mess by the time the NH summer is over), and the democrats just have to remind them who is responsible for that and point out that the US can’t afford another Republican administration.
What, even though he has more -gates than a row of cottages Finns? And a runaway bus that people keep getting thrown under? And even though he’s not a woman and has been so mean to Hillary? Don’t sellout so cheap man!
What I don’t get is this “popular” vote stuff constantly spruiked about. With a mixture of caucuses and primary’s its already hard to say who had the most “popular” support – and then the fact that the primary’s seem to be a mix of closed, semi-closed, and open primary’s (meaning Republicans can vote for the Democratic Party nominee?? – how weird is that??) so you can’t even say its the most popular person in a particular state.
Surely its up to the party, by whatever means, to determine who it’s candidate is, not the general public – otherwise surely they’d just run as Independents wouldn’t they? Or is it because people want to vote Republican or Democrat so you have to be aligned to a party label to get a good run – thus necessitating that you go through the party procedure.
Otherwise its just a beauty contest, devoid of real politics and substance, just who can win the most votes based on who can convince people they’re the nicest person. At least a party has conference’s, caucuses, debates and policies that give a guide to voters (and their members!) about where they stand.
So, to be honest, I don’t really care who wins the nomination – I think Hillary actually might be more “electable” – but then people voted for GWB, so I’m not convinced that “electability” is any more about politics than it is about getting your “tribe” (read party) into power, and not about trying to determine what IS in the “national interest” (to borrow a phrase from JWH), or what is going to be good for the people who’ve elected you. As for Obama, I hope he wins in November because I trust McCain less than I trust him – and I also hope that US politics (especially foreign policy) takes a progressive turn, but given history (especially from the Democratic Party in terms of getting involved in other people’s disputes) I suspect we may just see more of the same.
Amigo, i just love the look on the pundits’ face on CNN and Faknews after hillary’s speech. they look like the stunt mullet. it’s a pity i cant see the obamabots’ face here.
I reckon they’d be pretty smiley.
You’re gonna be dragged through an historic few months Finns. Enjoy the ride.
Or maybe I’m just feeling pessimistic today…
It’s over now Pancho. Before today, he needed 39.5 to win, now he’s 33 over the majority. There were only 31 pledged delegates at stake, and it’s now clear that he’s had the SDs stitched up for a while.
Tonight is the beginning of the coalescing of the party that was needed, and by the end of the week, even Hillary will have joined in. I think tonight was a last minute pitch for VP… I think she may have considered conceding tonight, but the reports from AP pushed her to addressing her supporters in one final victory/campaign speech.
Amigo, we have an agreement. Yes, i will Enjoy the ride.
Wow, your candidate made some BIG BIG promises. just pray and pray he can deliver.
The Long Campaign:
“I will be making no decisons tonight”.
June 3, 2008
Hillary initiates Whack-Watch.
Someone needs to explain to Hillary that it is not her decision to make.
And it’s done.
Obama’s Rally is amazing. Can’t think of anything else I’ve ever seen like it in terms of a political speech. The man is gracious, dignified, passionate and truly inspiring.
We are watching the course of history changing. Finally.
26 Dinsdale Piranha Thats why we need 60 seats to prevent Kyoto being stopped in the senate.
Hillary hits 0.1% on DeathWatch (and she’s lucky to get that). She still wants poor saps to donate money to keep her million dollar a day fantasy camp going.
http://www.slate.com/id/2192823/
Diogenes-
who?
Credit to Jason Linkins of for pointing out what happens when you Google McCain’s slogan “A Leader We Can Believe In”.
http://www.google.com/search?q=a+leader+we+can+believe+in&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-GB:official&client=firefox-a
Romney wins Montana!
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#MT
…in Feb. Sorry.
Looks like Hillary is still trying to get as much money out of her supporters as she can before she dumps them:
“She also asked people to go to her Web site to “share your thoughts with me and help in any way that you can.”"
The contrast between Obama’s and Hillary’s speeches could not be starker. While Hillary was trying to puff herself up, Obama talked about the future of the country. Is it any wonder why Obama won? Democrats have made the correct choice.
One thing that has often bothered me about Hillary is her frequently repeated catchphrase, “we’ll take back the White House”. It always sounded like she was just running for President so she could get back into the White House to pursue various vendettas. An absolute turn-off. It further underscored the perceived selfishness of this woman.
But thankfully, we have now dodged that bullet!
Noocat – did you have your head down as you ran straight to your armoured car? You can never be too safe…
CNN projects Obama has won Montana, and according to their exit poll, he won the female vote!
(L) Won,
Good one; entries are still being processed and confidently expect the pile to grow on the way to Nov.
Today is ‘R’ free day. Respect.
Good point Pancho, but dodging sniper fire is the true art, as Hillary would know.
I’m looking forward to the discussion now turning to Obama vs. McCain. Will be interesting to see the shape and form that Obama’s campaign takes. His team were incredibly well organised for the primaries. I expect they have a detailed plan for the general.
Hi GG, the Obamabots here are desperately seeking the concession final nails. where have you hidden them? you bad, bad man.
From the previous thread, a line that will be copied and copied and copied:
#
2146
Pancho Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 9:53 am
“That’s not change you can believe in, that’s change you can xerox.”
Hahahaha. Put your dime in the copier Hillary.
…a classic Pancho, as Hillary proved herself to be nothing more than a bad copy of an astute, engaging and charismatic leader who has real grace and style.
No prize for the bad copy, is there?
Finns sez…”Amigo, i just love the look on the pundits’ face on CNN and Faknews after hillary’s speech. they look like the stunt mullet.”
No touring Fish Circus is ever complete without a team of well drilled “stunt mullets”.
yes he (the hopemaster) is such a weak candidate he couldnt even “win” the nomination (despite the FL and MI) rigging on delegates but had to have the supers save him yet again. More portents of doom in November.
“Put McCain’s speech against Obama’s – and this was a wipe-out. Not a victory. A wipe-out. Rhetorically, they are simply not in the same league. And if the contrast tonight between McCain and Obama holds for the rest of the campaign, McCain is facing a defeat of historic proportions.”
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/06/this-moment-1.html
Another nine supers for Obama too, at 2160 delegates now. But don’t worry, they will all have an epiphany before the convention and switch their votes.
43
Pancho Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
Romney wins Montana!
Pancho, that’s going from the sublime to the ridiculous! LOL
ESJ
If only they had elected the more electable Clinton!
Hillary passed up a golden opportunity tonight to show some class and bow out with dignity! She has now effectively disqualified herself from being a contender for Obama’s running mate!
OK, a great day, but I’ll keep the champagne on ice until November, the battle has only just begun!
KR: good on ya mate, you’re a legend!
All is not lost for the Clintons: how about Chelsea for President in 2016? LOL
I think I’m having the post-euphoria come down.
Grief even – I may well miss Grinch and Finns daily bucketing.
Tues, June 3 (4RB): “Poofski!”, The Gentle Art of Airbrushing in Modern Russia.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jeffdanziger;_ylt=AvkTTTgpmhecKe.Fu2gwGydX_b4F
We could all make the occassional snide comment at you if you’d like Jen.
Just to keep the memories fresh, so to speak.
Jen
Every little slip-up or bad poll during the real election will be shortly followed by “Billary wouldn’t have done that, she’s more experienced. Billary polled much better in that state blah blah blah. Why did the Democrats throw the election away?”
It will make victory in November all the sweeter as we will have really suffered for it.
A wave is comin’ in Nov.
Hope the Republicans can swim. Only the strong swimmers will survive.
Forget Hillary. She is finished.
Did anyone hear David Axelrod earlier? He very implicitly mentioned Dick Lugar(R).
Then Obama spoke about ALL Americans…Reds and Blues.
Obama/Lugar 08?
I don’t think Hillary is gone from the campaign of either side. Obama will throw her a bone, and she’ll be all over the RNCs ads.
No Obama-Deval 08 more like it.
And in the other corner:
…to the theme from “Raiders of the Lost Ark’’ – which these days conjures up images of an aging action hero called in to a last adventure — Mr. McCain reappeared.
NYT
…how’s that for a nice comic touch?
62
dogb
I don’t think we could keep the standard as low as the professionals! LOL
Finns and GG
This one’s for you.
Turn out the lights, the party’s over
They say that all good things must end
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJBxGsCJD3I
(I can’t believe I’m linking a Willie Nelson song. How low can I go!)
Why Hillary lost:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/jun/04/hillaryclinton.uselections20084
Thanks dogb and others.
No offence intended, but you could never intentionally offend the way the stooges have. But you’re welcome to try.
jen as long as you stay on horsey. i will always love you
Jen dont forget me too!
KR and Jen – re: my standard of snideness.
Oh I don’t know, how hard could it be? Just bang on incessantly about electability and popular vote in spite of any evidence to the contrary – use the term obamabot at every opportunity – and every now and then make an implication about a foul personal habit.
Easy.
(Oh, I forgot the occasional sleazy surreptitious hit on Jen)
CNN just now:
Carl Bernstein hits it on the head.
Hillary Clinton lost this nomination because of her stance on the War. And even her closest advisors are now admitting this.
Each candidate had a rare opportunity to speak to the whole country on free to air prime time tv tonight.
We had 3 speeches:
John McCain spoke about Barack Obama.
Hillary Clinton spoke about herself.
Barack Obama spoke about Americans.
#65 Amigo, i know it hasn’t hit you Obamabots yet but i think it has hot the Obama Team. it’s like the Archibald, yes Obama has won the Jury Prize but Hillary has won the people’s choice.
Obama needs Hillary more than ever to win in November. He is now crawling all over to win her and her supporters over. It’s now on his shoulder to unite the Party, the Nation and to win in November.
It also depends on Hillary. She needs to concede. She needs to pledge support to Obama. And she needs to stop all the silliness from her supporters threatening to vote for McCain.
No Noooocat, he is now the supposed “Nominee”, dont be a chicken.
dogB-
you also need to include opportunistic attacks on our personal relationships and suggestions of unusual sporting activities.
ESJ- I continually try to forget you.
Yes let the hopemaster bring peace and light.
Finns
Want to make a bet right now?
That Obama wins the Presidency and wins it without Hillary as his VP?
Yes or No?
State right now that Obama will not win the presidency without Hillary as his VP. come on.
Historic day, on that we can all agree.
Many more to come.
Catch ‘yous’ all later.
Jen – Point taken – oh and Finns has just shown us you need an astonishing level of self delusion. I’m starting to think you and KR were right – this is harder than it looks.
More crawling:
- To Bill and our Dear Leader, but where are the working families?
well, the fisrt thing Clinton should do is asking Obama to absorb and/or
dissovle her $20 million personal debt incurred during her campaign.
Where’s Ron? Not down at his local early opener I hope.
Well i think it is time to consider Vice presidential candidates once more. Im a little sick of Webb and don’t think it will be him so he does not make my list. Mostly because it would be antagonistic to hillary supporters.
1. Mark Warner (Virginia): Former gov poular in rural aareas say no more
2. John Edwards (North Carolina): Polls well and North Carolina only southern state that didnt go backwards under Kerry. Good name recognision.
3. Janet Napolitano ( Arizona): Steal Arizona from under Mcains wrinckley nose
4. Mike Easley (North Carolina) Popular governor big state. Prob more likely to do better in home state but less so name recognition outside of home state.
5. Kathleen Sebelius ( Kansas): Very poular govenor of a very red state. Myabe a little to red though.
6. Claire McCaskill (Missouri): Popular senator of bell whether state.
7. Brian Schweitzer (Montana): Most peoples ruffy. poular goveror ofa purple stae. Only worth 3 votes.
8. Evan Bayh (Indianna): popular former Governor red state. Dwon side no geographical balance. Supported Clintons.
9. Hillary Clinton (New York): To make her stop hurting the party
10. Brad Henry (Oklahoma): Governor of a red state. Worked with republican legislature and is young for a national politician at 46. Doubtful he could pull his state.
Senators Blanche Lincoln Arkansas and Jack Reed Rhode island get honourable mentions as Does Virginia governor Time Kaine.
reckon the Stooges and compadres will be spending a bit of time on the Clinton Commisseration Self-Help site where they can all blog about how “we woz robbed ” until the cows come home.
jen, love you when you are on the horsey. just stay there, dont ever get off.
Finally change we can believe in!
Fascinating Crikey articles today for those who have a subscription (no idea if the said articles are free, can’t be arsed checking it out.)
Guy Rundle provided a recap of the nights events, running commentary on the two big speeches. He did a much better job than I did, that’s for sure. Always worth a read.
Bernard Keane – who, to his credit, has become a much better journalist in the past month or so since he has stopped sucking up to the left as he did for his first few weeks in the job – also wrote a fascinating piece on why the Democrats have, quite simply, stuffed up in nominating Obama. I note with interest that people like Finns have been saying similar things.
To be honest, I would have probably been in this camp… if not for the fact the only alternative to him was Hillary Clinton. To me, it was quite simply a case of better the devil I don’t know than the one I do. I really am not a fan of her. But I digress…
The Democratic Party has made its biggest mistake since… well, the last presidential election. Worse than that, really. Barack Obama is a disaster of McGovernesque proportions, and his nomination will give the McCain camp confidence that what should have been an unwinnable election will be within reach.
Let’s be clear. Obama is the weakest, least substantial candidate from either side for a generation or more. At least Michael Dukakis had run Massachusetts. Obama hasn’t run anything, has been in the Senate for five minutes, and has an undistinguished record in Illinois.
All he’s got are words – eloquent, uplifting, energising and wholly vacuous words. And nothing else. Particularly, no experience.
Ouch. And then…
Obama’s only hope is to get Clinton onto the ticket. A solid core of Clinton supporters have consistently said they won’t vote for Obama. A lot of that will be resentment at Clinton’s (grotesquely unfair) treatment at the hands of the press compared to the golden ride Obama has had, and will vanish once the battle is joined. But Obama already has too many major constituencies who have consistently demonstrated they won’t vote for him – lower income workers, Hispanics – to afford to alienate core Democrats who not merely vote but help organise and get out the vote and, crucially, donate.
It’s an interesting point, and one I suspect will be expanded upon by many in months to come.
And Harry – let’s be fair here. Lets not ask for predictions on the race until both parties have chosen their VP. Which might not be until the end of June yet, and technically could not be decided until the end of July.
Hillary today:
“Nearly 18 million of you cast your votes — for our campaign, carrying the popular vote with more votes than any primary candidate in history.
And because of you we (Team hillary) won, together, the swing states necessary to get to 270 electoral votes”
Absolutely , won easily the 270 e/v and the easily popular vote. Stewart J , agree with almost all your post and your conclusion ‘I suspect we may just see more of the same.’ Hillary has not conceded & I do not think she should. However I do echo Hillarys speech ‘I would like all of us to take a moment to recognize him and his supporters for all they have accomplished’
I expect Obama this week to acknowledge a truthful fact despite the Obambot and the ObamaRealists here that Hillary based on the actual audited votes cast (app 35.5 million) won the popular If you do not honestly acknowledge wwhat your opponent won vote then don’t expect your opponent to show respect Its like Tony Mundine winning by a one points decision and then saying he won every round
Really Max? I find him vacuous at times, nitpicking both sides of Parliament on things that no one really cares about anyway. I really miss Christian Kerr.
Max – that is the same ahistoric argument that Clinton has run for 17 months. It is also one which has been proven false at every turn so far. Nor has it stopped Obama building a revolutionary fundraising machine and grassroots organisation which has been able to outmanuever Clinton on every conceivable front.
Scotty 89
You could add another dozen to that list. It really is a guessing game.
I can say with certainty though, you can cross off numbers 8 and 9 in your list.
I think Obama is in a difficult situation of having to accept Clinton as his VP,
considering their rifts, disagreements during the campaign.
The disharmony is even worse than that of Howard-Costello, Nelson-Turnbull pairs
Obama and the Clintons; one big happy democratic family in the white house. Sounds like a sitcom.
Nonetheless, I will be cracking open a bottle of the good liquid tonight.
Here’s to November.
If the two jokers in the CQ linked article, Ram-Ram Emmanuel and some publisher guy start making conspicuous visits to either BHO or HRC, then HRC for Veep is being tried on.
I think Obama would be making a huge mistake offering the VP slot to Hillary for many reasons (eg. “the face doesn’t fit” ie. wisdom is knowing the things you “can’t fix” then leaving them well enough alone, she can’t be trusted to stick to a deal etc.), but mostly because of the way she wallowed in her own hard-done-byness tonight. Vainglory and hubris doth pale beside thy narcissism, sweet lady! She just doen’t get it.
Havn’t seen the full clip, but understand that HRC didn’t offer Obi congratulations on his historic achievement but reassured us all that SHE hadn’t made a decision yet!
*fcuk….. me…… dead*
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/06/two-possible-power-brokers.html
Frank I really don’t think It’ll make that much difference after all Kennedy and Johnson HATED each other.
VP is essentially baggage anyway
#93 – Max, you are in big big trouble now. are you tough enough?
yep, is that easy. Just say them and they will happen. Is this guy from Disneyland.
Just say it, I WILL SIGN KYOTO. that’s the change we need.
Rage on with the mixed messages Finns! Obama must reach out to Hillary…but he’s a crawler! A nuanced response to energy and the environment is crap…but just sign Kyoto! Yeah!
Breaking: Hillary will be VP…………..for McCain LOL LOL LOL
Breaking: Democrats nominate turkey for November
HarryH @ 97
Who exactally? I think they will have been on my list. It will not be Bill Richardson. He and Obama are South polls of a magnite so to speak. Obama needs a north poll. Ideally they will have good name recognition be southern or mid western. They will be white but pro woman enough (exit Webb). If you notice 4 of my top 5 were governors or former governors. They will need to have a good chance of pulling their own state. Age and lengthof servie plays a role. Not to long, not to short.
Bill Ritter: Obama will probably win Colorado anyway), Vilsak, culver (will win iowa anyway), Ted Strickland (old to coonsevative), Ed Rendell (too old, too defensive), Sherrod Brown( Maybe but not there that long and only a senator).
Phil Bredesen (way too old), Kathleen Blanco (Katrina), Steve Beshear (not even there a year), Sam Nunn ( If only he were 10 years younger)
Frankly i think they will be from my top 8.
EC 100
I sat through the whole speech waiting for her concession … instead she asked for a write in to help her make up her mind in the coming days – as you said WTF?
That’s why at the end all the commentators on the networks were acting like stunt mullets – nobody could believe the way she was ignoring reality.
BTW love the fish circus!
That took you all day to think of that line didn’t it eddy, so witty
In the mean time Obama will probaby gain about 20000 votes on Clinton today, increasing his popular vote lead
Obama with Hillary as Veep would probably crush the Republicans by a simple flood of turnout.
The problem is having the Clintons running around in the background causing mischief on the one hand, and as Ecky says “the wrong face” on the other.
But if Obama made Hillary Veep as well as Secretary of Health – the latter would be solved because she’d become the face of Universal Healthcare, and would certainly reduce the magnitude of the former because she’d be too busy to get up to much mischief.
Bill on the other hand….
The big problem with choosing Hillary would be how to counter the Repubs national security narrative – which is what a Veep other than Hillary could bring to the table if they were a General or some other well credentialed white bloke with a history of fight’n bad guys.
Al @ 95,
I miss Cristian too, but I assume at some point he will start writing in the oz? Has to be a matter of time, surely. Unless he has already started and I’ve missed it. I think Keane has improved dramatically in the past month, along with Crikey itself, since they’ve finally stopped blowing smoke up Kevin Rudd’s arse. For an outlet striving to be different and independent of the mainstream, well, you’d have had a hard time picking it.
With the exception of Mr Rundle, who has been superb if not slightly biased.
Pancho @ 96
Tend to disagree. I think she has been running that argument solidly for three or four months – before Super Tuesday she was playing the ‘inevitability’ card, not the experience one she has been harping on about since.
I tend to think she scored some hits with it as well, you only have to look at the recent string of results to confirm that.
Nonetheless, whether or not McCain can effectively ramp up the tempo remains to be seen. The more I see of this campaign, the more I think his age will be more of an asset than a liability. Time will tell though, and there’s plenty of time to discuss it.
Finns,
pffft, give me a break I spent much of last year coming on here and taking heat for supporting the Howard government. I did a random count one day, and from memory something along the lines of 5% of people were on my side in these debates – and this was on the good days. I had no chance once October hit. This is pissy compared to that, you’ve had it easy!
Anyway, I’ve always reserved judgement on the McCain-Obama battle, and will continue to do so
The popular vote means nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero. Why? Because some states have open primaries, some have closed primaries, some are caucuses. It’s not even worth discussing; but it’s all the Clinton camp had left to cling to. Go tell Minnesota that because only 200,000 people took part the caucuses it’s only a quarter as important as Missouri which had 800,000 people vote in its primary on the same day, even though they have the same size delegations.
#110, Poss – [Assuming that the rumored Michelle Obama “Whitey” video never turns up, or is confiscated if it does before it’s broadcast] – not another “gate”. Surely, Obama would not throw her under the bus.
Interesting that Obama opened his speech about his grandma. But which one? the racist one or the one that assumed responsibility for him while his mum was savvy around in Menteng, Jakarta as the white Buana.
Let’s indulge this idea of HRC as VP Dem nominee a little furthur.
Could you imagine her strutting aroung the Dem War Room during the next five months with the antsyness of one who feels righteously aggrieved that she has been spurned on a vile “technicality” from getting her claws on the POTUS Seal? (Remember BillBo’s “Hillary’s Downfall” link from You Tube?)
To put it mildly Hillary would be a disruptive influence, a daily nightmare relentlessly sapping esprit de corps. Then there’s the package-deal angle with Bubba. Any political marriage broker with half a brain can see from a mile away that such a union would be “untenable”.
Team Obama will have enough on their plate dealing with the MSM’s “Adoration of Johnny Bomb-Bomb”, rather than to have to unnecessarily deal with a self-inflicted Insider Swiftboat!
Max at 111,
For what it’s worth with my conflict of interest – I think Bernard, Tingles and George Meg are the three best nationally focussed political journalists in the country…. and then there’s daylight.
And they’re excellent for different reasons, Meg because he has an inquisitive mind and actually does real issue analysis, Tingles because she’s seen all the shit before and calls it like it is and Bernard because he “gets it”. Especially the nuance and detail that fly over the heads of most people but are actually kind of important, like the way the public service actually works for instance (and he’s one of the funniest writers around to boot)
I’d think the same if I didn’t write for Crikey.
Possum
115
I would add Chris Graham and Brian Johnstone from NIT for Indigenous issues. Chris has contacts in the remotest communities.
Possum @ 115
Shaun Carney?
To each his own Possum. I just find that sometimes Bernard misses the spot, dwelling on things that aren’t quite as important as they may initially seem. His work on the most pointless debate I think we’ve had in the last year (oil prices) I’ve enjoyed.
I agree Ecky – she’d be a disruptive nightmare.
But I wonder if that would actually play out in a meaningful way if she was given SoH as a chaser to the Veep. Becoming the face of the biggest Democrat policy wish in history – Universal Healthcare – as well as being seen to be not only its architect, but the deliverer of the policy is something that even Clinton wouldnt sneeze at.
Especially now as it’s extremely doable in political terms – every major corporation in the US with a history longer than 2 decades would be lining up behind it, spending big bucks singing its praises and threatening to withdraw campaign funding to anyone that opposed it, simply to get the health liabilities of their current and in many cases, previous workforce off their books.
She’d be a media tart and almost impossible to manage in that regard – but she’d also be the ultimate attack dog to unleash in Appalachia. She’d bring Florida to the table and turn 6 states that Obama wouldnt have a pink fit of a chance into play.
And as VP – she wouldnt mobilise the Republican base nearly as much as if she were the Dem nominee.
If the Dems want to run a 50 State strategy – tying down McCain in the backblocks of traditional Red States with Hillary pouring working class buckets on him, Obama mobilising a voting block that doesnt usually vote and McCain trying desperately to bring out his base to save those states – Hillary in the Veep ticket might not be a bad way to go.
It certainly makes it a hell of a lot easier to grab States like PA, OH and FL by huge margins because the Repubs would be reduced to firewalling.
Especially with all the money that a truly united Dem party could flush into advertising.
And perhaps, just maybe, despite the taste, it might be better to have her inside the tent pissing out. She could certainly never even think about playing spoiler if she was in the tent.
“In becoming the presumptive nominee — the first African-American to ever lead a major-party ticket — he put himself just one step away from an achievement that would echo around the globe: No black man has ever led a major Western democracy, much less the world’s leading superpower.”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10830.html
Hello FINNS , amigo
#102 (Kyoto , something that does affect us all)
How many times have we brought Kyoto up. got me going mate , climate change
Obama has repeatedly avoided interviwers questions of “will you ratify Kyoto”
If the answer was ‘yes’ , he would say so. Obvioudsly the answer is “no”. Instead Obama’s answer is always to say he will set up a competing forum to Kyoto , which is a cute way of saying ‘no’. This is a fact
What Obama proposes INSTEAD of Kyoto is a Global Energy Forum — based on the G8+5, which included all G-8 members plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South (but not ‘oz’ the World’s 3rd worst emitter per capita). Obama’s reserve ’spin’ defence is Kyoto only goes to 2012 , so lets address from 2013 , which still avoids ratifying Kyoto doesn’t it ! and implys let the world pollute itself to death frf the next 4 years till Obama ‘looks’ at it post 2013 with 13 only Nations.
Hillary will , a Kyoto mark 11.
The 3 Amigos have for 3 months , (between The approx Obama supporters sniping at the 3 amigos and us returning fire) have pushed for debate on Ktot , healthcare & other domestic policys of Hillary vs Obama The Obama supporters
almost totally for 3 months will not discuss candidates policys. william’s site records are the evidence , so any casual live new blogers here shouuld go through all of the thousands of blogs made here & they’ll see the indisputable evidence and so shouuld not be making blase uninformed views from casual/infrequent live viewings of this site about anyone That was Obama supporters perogative & right but cann’t have the the apple & eat it
What you are trying to get Amigo is a policy committemnt (Obama to say ‘I will ratify Kyoto’) Mate , some of the new guys live today need to go over the last 3 months blogs closely and ignore the 35 to 3 Amigos snpes & our return fire , and look at we have regularly perued policy issues and the Obama supporters will not discuss Obama’s policy at all or avoid our Kyoto questions with a red herring (Obama’s competing to Kyoto conference of about 13 most polluting nations)
If climate change is one of the top 4 world crisises (& I think it is) then neither Obama or McCain will seriously address it without without threats from Edwards , Hillary or Gore
Al – Bernards job is to report on the daily happening in politics. If what’s going on is superficial shit, he’s still got to report on it.
That’s the big difficulty for all political journos that are expected to do the same. How to make fluff and nonense interesting.
Only a select few can do it well.
Westie – I like Shaun Carney when he’s good, and when he’s good he’s Good (Like Phil Coorey), but I think the daily grind kills him.
If a lot of the political journos were allowed to write when they had something to say, rather than being forced to write as part of their job description, journalism in the country would improve dramatically.
But no one has figured out a model like that which can pay the bills yet.
93
Max
I find it interesting that when someone wants to disparage someone who’s just collected the biggest endorsement in the history of the Democratic party, and injected a level of enthusiasm and passion not seen since the halcyon days of JFK, the writer says something inane like “he only has uplifting words”
FFS, politicians ONLY have words!
And Clinton? An utterly stuffed up effort to get a universal health plan, a husband she could not keep from embarrassing himself in front of the entire world, a vote to let GW Bush ruin a Middle East country on the shallowest of stitched up ‘evidence’, and a primary campaign of such ineptitude that she squandered the best hand ANY candidate ever took to the race!
Really, but Obama’s only got ‘uplifting words’….give us a break! LOL
The only problem with all that Ron is that it’s not the Presidents job to ratify Kyoto – it’s the Senates.
If Obama or any President started rabbiting on about ratifying this or that protocol or treaty, they’d be effectively talking shit.
yawn. Once again amigos:
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Plenty more on the above link to have a look at as well. Or you could offer up your support for a gas tax holiday. hahahahaha.
My advice to Mr. Obama, in his effort to unite the Party and win over Hillary’s supporters – The supreme excellence is not to win a hundred victories in a hundred battles. The supreme excellence is to subdue the armies of your enemies without having to fight them. – Sun Tzu, The Art of War. c.400-320 b.c.
Possum @ 122
Oh, The Daily Grind. That dreadful old rag.
And as a reviewer of rock biographies?
Poss
Clinton as VP just aint gonna happen.
If he brings her onto his ticket, his message of change is dead.
He will win easily without her.
Penn , Ohio, Michigin, Wisconsin, Minnesota will all be won on the economy.
Obama on his own “change” message will win Colorado, New Mexico and probably Virginia.
The anti War base anchor him in educated areas.
She is not the difference between winning and losing.
Obama won’t fold for her. If he was going to he would have this week.
Him and his team have run to a finely tuned plan. They aint gonna let Billary f*ck it up at the last minute.
Part of his plan is governing in a new fashion.
Team Hillbilly are 90’s leftovers. The relics of the Boomers.
Hillary clinton during the primaries won all the most populous states which have the most numbers in electoral college votes during a presidential election(California, NewYork texas florida Pennslyvania ect). Barack Obama won a lot of the less populous states which although overall showed his primary vote higher than higher and as subsequence his overall delegate count. Hillary also won the so called swing states ohio and West Virginia for example. I believe that John McCain will now win the Presidential election due in November experience counts this 71 year old veteran is more than a match for 46yo one generation american.
Various people are trying to run the line of ‘what has Obama ever done’.
Beating the Clintons in a nationwide campaign should count for something by itself, in my opinion.
Possum (@ 110 – I’m running a bit late),
What do you think about Gen. Wesley Clark for VP then? (OK, so flubbed his own run for POTUS 4 years ago – did manage to win one of the Carolinas (I think?) in the primaries) but he meets all the military service background the Dems need and then some…
Ian did you compromise the boat?
Many people on campus had their suspicions given you were a mature age student.
MB
without putting words in Possums mouth, i think it’s safe to say Wes Clark is his preference for VP.
he stated that previously. not sure if that’s changed lately
Interesting to note that Michelle Obama does not dress conservatively like other female politicians. See the differnce between Michelle’s and Hillaries outfits. Chelsea was also dressed conservatively. Is this the sign of some of the changes to come? No more grovelling to pick up religious votes.
Possum at 119: I’m sure that “Rational Hillary” would agree with the case you put for having her inside the tent and loaded up. Looks great on paper. She could help spread McCain all over the court before November. But is she worth the risk?
Her presence on the Dem ticket would sully Obi’s primary theme of “Change” because of her deep connectedness to Beltway interests. However, could HRC be trusted to have all her snakes securely back in the box after some of her outrageous performances over the last 6 months as the orb slipped from her grasp? Lousy leadership really considering all her initial campaign assets. But you can’t buy character.
Reckon her risks far outwiegh her assets in the surge to November.
Be better for Obi to win his way by 20 or 30 ECVs, than to punt all on a “sure thing” (a potentilally monster ECV margin with Brutusina as Vice), than have the “sure thing”, oodles of potential though highly strung, break a leg in the home straight and have to be “destroyed” by deeply concerned MSM officials.
ESJ,
*laugh* Your paranoia is showing.
We came, we saw, we got the media attention which was the point of the exercise.
Finally, mature agent student ? Callow youth was more like it.
Paul Nash,
Your argument shows that, like Hilary Clinton, you can’t count, so you’re on for $20. ESJ can hold the money – I’ll get my Kopassus upline to pass him the cash. Damn. Outed myself.
Harry at 128
I think Obama can win without Clinton, but to win big would require a McCain meltdown (which could well be on the books, he’s not across any brief when push comes to shove, and he doesnt have a good way to hide it – which is what separates McCain from good candidates: They can hide the fact that they arent really across what they’re talking about).
But politics is also an uncertain business, McCain might not meltdown – what if he campaigned well? What if something came out about him that resonated badly in a few key States?
With Clinton, if she could be attached to Universal Healthcare, I dont think the power of Obamas change spiel would be reduced (but so saying, that change spiel alone wont win him the election, the US electorate is a complicated messy place like every electorate).
Her benefit is that she could bring more States to the table that would be in play – meaning that she could lead to a larger Dem victory on the upside, and bring enough states to the table to create a buffer on the downside – especially Florida. That would not only protect Obama, but increase the reach of any Dem victory.
We’ve got to remember that there’s two things Clinton does well – her attacks resonate with low-median income blue collar workers and hispanics, and she brings women over 50 into the voting tent in volumes. What an asset to deploy on the ground in key States.
The sacrifice? – a few of Obamas supporters will be pissed, but they’d still vote for him anyway.This is the pointy end of politics here – the game is about electoral college votes, like it was all about delegates in the primaries. Everything else other than those metrics is piss and wind.
Popular Vote? – irrelevent
Carried more States? – meaningless
Getting as many electoral college votes as is possible? – Everything!
That might sound a bit callous and crass and not with the general vibe of Obama, but this is politics we’re dealing with here – Obama is a politician like any other, he just does PR better. Sure he might have policies that the US could do with a dose of, sure he might be great for America and the world, and sure Washington needs a broom taken to it. But unless he actually becomes President, carries Congress and the Senate, and does it by large margins to give him a buffer for policy action – all the good things that everyone thinks about Obama probably wont amount to much more than surface value (which in itself is important – the first black guy being President will change the country in itself). But Obama can do a lot more, but he needs to win big.
Because what he is proposing will shake up vested interests, and the only way to clobber vested interests is with a powerful mandade and enough soldiers in the Houses.
I’m not a Clinton fan and never have been, and she’s done her fair share of deliberately damaging Obamas candidacy as a way of trying to gain Superdelegates when she knew that she’d probably lost, but I think that she could still bring a hell of a lot to the table at the pointy end.
And it’s the pointy end that delivers.
133 HarryH An ex General for VP. That would be a huge backward step. It would also signal change is dead.
MB at 131 – I reckon Clarke would be the best choice for Obama if he goes route of using the Veep to bolster his national security credentials (unless there’s another 4 star white male General that knows Democrat politics floating around somewhere).
But there’s more than one way to skin a cat.
Pancho #125 & enemy marsupial #124
May I ask for blogers patience , as we all know Kyoto is important to us all
Pancho: “yawn. Once again amigos:Reduce Carbon Emissions 80 Percent by 2050 etc”
In my #121 to any objective viewer of this site I made 3 points none of which Pancho addressed :
1/ I said Obama will NOT say ‘he will “ratify” Kyoto’ (I’ll define “ratify” later) Pancho did not rebute my assertion at all
2/ I said Obama will create a COMPETING to Kyoto organization , Global Energy Forum (’GEF’) of 13 countries. Obama is saying he’ll create ‘GEF’ INSTEAD of Obama “ratifying” Kyoto. (Obama is not setting up “GEF” AND concurrently
“ratifying “Kyoto’). Pancho did not rebute my assertion at all
3/ I said Obama supporters here for 3 months have avoided acknowledging that Obama will not “ratify” Kyoto and instead use generalised unspecific Obama ’spin’ words (see Panho’s #121 Obama words) to avoid acknowlegding this point and therefore Obama supporters were/are avoiding justifying why the hell Obama won’t do what the other 199 countries out of 200 have done and that is to “ratify” Kyoto. ‘Kyoto’ signifys not just symbolic political committment a Country is locked into but imortantly also committment to Kyoto protocols & climate targets , which is why Howard would not “ratify” Kyoto. Pancho , you’ve done it again , ie avoided the central Kyoto points and avoided having to justify why Obama will not
As to “ratify’ , lets be very clear. Firstly , Obama will NOT say “I unconditionally support the ratification of Kyoto”. Marsupial he will not say that nor has he ever said that. Secondly , Obama will NOT say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto”. Why cann’t Obqama supporters say they support Obama for POTUS , but on this issue he is dead wrong ! (Kyoto , Obama is playing with words to avoid saying he doesn’t support Kyoto’s “ratification”)
Why on earth would you choose an army man if you want change? You’re locking yourself into the establishment. Therefore no change.
Sorry – part of 137 should read re:McCain
“But politics is also an uncertain business, McCain might not meltdown – what if he campaigned well? What if something came out about Obama that resonated badly in a few key States?”
It works much better that way
People here keep saying Hillary would lock us into the past. For goodness sake what does a General do?
Possom,
On the down side, VP is a less influential position than Senator from New York.
Look, the only region Obama is losing is Appalachia, because die-hard mountain rednecks wont vote for a black man. Thats Tennessee, West Virginia and Kentucky.
On the other hand, he’s winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Virginia and Colorado.
Finally, a lot of Americans hate the Clintons. The sad, battered, gutshot defeated remnants of the Republican party know how to attack the Clintons.
However, given the pathetic showing of the Republican Party and their utter inability to craft an anti-Obama message in their shocking, spineless, gutless loss in the Missisippi-1 special election, you’d have to say they know nothing about running against Obama.
Ron, If I were Obama I wouldnt say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto” either.
And I think the protocol is important (even if not very effective for reducing emissions – but that’s another argument for another time)
Possom,
If anything that bad existed, then the Clinton would have used it against Obama.
He fessed up to youthful cocaine use. His pastor wandered well outside the bounds of public discourse. For crying out loud he voted *against* the War.
He wasnt annointed after winning Iowa and New Hampshire – the long campaign put him through the mill, and he has shown strength throughout the country.
At the end of the day, thats the great service Hilary Clinton did to the Democratic Party – she forced Obama to win the thing, and in doing so, turned himself into a winner.
144 Ian Whitchurch I’ve just checked the maps on CQ politics. West Virginia has more blue areas and Virginia has more red areas. You can click to enlarge.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=28
Poss
I agree with nearly all of that and am not unaware of what politics and EVERY politician is all about.
but
Do you honestly think Obama and Dean, after making the biggest, hardest break of all, beating the Clintons and the DLC, will give them the kiss of life by shovelling her and entourage into the VP spot.
This is now Obama/Dean, make no mistake.
Hillary will cop Health, because that’s all she will be offered.
And the Democrats will win the election. “Hillarys women” are not going to vote for Republican and a stacked Supreme Court. “Hillarys battlers” are going to vote their pocket and vote Democrat. “Hillarys racists” are gonna vote MCCain like they are going to anyway.
And Obama’s flood of new voters , and a “on the nose” Repug Party,will deliver a comfortable win in the EC to the Dems.
And then Obama can govern without Billary and their ego’s breathing down his neck.
Besides, i think Barry values his marriage…so he knows what not to do lol.
Chris B,
I hate to break this to you, but there’s a fair number of US voters who will vote Democratic, but not if they run a black candidate.
Fortunatly, GWB has done such a great job trashing the Republican brand that it simply wont matter.
ChrisB
just to make it clear. Clark is not my preference for VP or who i think would be the best pick. I was just relaying Possums opinion to MB, who had enquired.
Chris B – the US population will simply not, under any circumstances, jump to the left on just about anything. They arent Europe, they arent Australia, they arent cuddly little Canada. US political activists often are, but activists are outnumbered by massive margins by the majority of the population in every single seat and district in the country.
They will jump to the centre at the most. And by centre, I mean THEIR centre, not ours. That’s why Obama has been very careful about what he’s said over Iraq and the military – it’s why he keeps on talking about the importance of US military dominance.
National Security is an extremely important issue for US voters – military activity goes to the heart of the modern American narrative. If the US conquered Iraq successfully – the Republicans would be a shoe in for this election.
Let’s not kid ourselves about what’s happening here with Obama.
The US population is not “anti-war”, they are just “anti-wars-we-arent-winning”
This is the same population that thought back in 2004 that the Representative (name escapes me) that had his two legs blown off in Vietnam was wimpo-peacenic because of a couple of ads!
Look at what the Swiftboaters did to Kerry – a Vietnam Vet!
Obama’s appeal for change isn’t an appeal for socialist revolution comrades!
Harry, I dont know if Dean and Obama will or not, but gawd, it’s worth thinking about!
Wed June 4: Celebrity Psephs
http://news.yahoo.com/comics/mattbors;_ylt=AldOf4zT03gvQLksP5k6×4nX.sgF
Poss 152
I think both sides know exactly where they stand and thats why the loser is still acting the way they are.
0% chance Hillary for VP.
#151 Poss, in other words, once a great satan, always a great satan.
Sorry Ecky – missed you back up at 135
I agree -Hillary is a killer of a risk! Especially since she’d be impossible to put on a leash.
But I wonder if she’d really need to be if she was both Veep and SoH? If Hillary wanted to be Pres, her best chance would be for Obama to have a kick arse 2 term presidency and run for Pres in 2016 as the wise old lady of US politics that played a big part in the New America.
If Obi could tie Clintons self interest into making sure he succeded – maybe it might not be such a risk at the end of the day.
My worry with Obama having a small victory would be the nervous nellies on the Dems side effectively not giving him the capability to reform things like campaign finance or health care or social security in Congress. But a big thumping win would solve that problem completely. And if it took Brutusania to be on the ticket to get that majority – boy, if I were Obama I’d be tempted to take that risk.
I said a while back that Clinton ought to concede at this point, but I’m tempted to change my mind. Two reasons:
* For a candidate of a party whose brand is utterly discredited, and which will be thrashed in the congressional elections, McCain is polling very strongly. Clearly the voters don’t associate him with Bush or the Republican Party generally.
* For a candidate of a party which is cruising to victory in the congressionals, who has been the presumptive nominee for some time, and who ought to be getting a bandwaggon effect by now, Obama’s loss in SD was a very ominous sign. He won all the other western plains states easily. Now at the last minute SD has rejected him.
Clearly “buyer’s remorse” has set in. I’ve no doubt at all that if all the primaries were re-run now, Clinton would win most of them. She has won a clear majority of votes and delegates since March, when the Jeremiah Wright story broke and revealed that Obama was not the Messiah after all, just another shifty and dishonent pol, Al Sharpton in a good suit. If Obama is nominated, it will be on the strength of votes he won before March, many of which he wouldn’t get now.
All this is very ominous for November. Obama has huge problems with working-class whites, with Hispanics and with J*ws. He therefore cannot carry FL, and will have big problems in OH, MI and PA. If McCain carries these four he will win, unless Obama can somehow carry states like VA, MS, LA and MO on the back of a huge black turnout. Well, maybe he can, but I’m sceptical.
Can I play Devil’s Advocate and suggest that the prevailing depiction of HRC as some kind of monster is tad misogynistic? She fought hard for the nomination, because she had her eyes on the big prize.
I say this as a big fan of Obama, too. I’m just worried that because a woman fights dirty like any male presidential candidate would, she is some kind of crazy harpy.
Just a thought.
Finns at 155 – I’m not a member of the school of thought that thinks the US is the Great Satan – far from it, but the yank population is what they are.
Although, under an Obama Presidency, US military action and foreign policy certainly wont be like Bush, but it wont be too far different from Bill Clinton.
We can only hope it might be a little smarter, but honestly, this is the Worlds superpower here – and despite their economic woes and being bogged down in Iraq, they are still and will continue to be for 20 years the worlds only superpower.
We can only hope that with that continued capability comes leadership that is both compassionate and has the smarts to use force wisely – because as f*cked up as it might be, for the US, those two things are often two sides of the same coin.
Especially when the world starts bleating that “something needs to be done”, because it’s generally only the US that can do it.
Possum
Would you agree with the assertion that even if they win the EC fairly marginally(remember Obama is already winning with 276 and only needs to flip Michigan to get 293) that the Dems will win massive majority in the House and Senate?
The saddest part of all the vitriol here (you lot don’t even get to vote!) and all over the web is the swinging between racism and sexism.
For Christ’s sake–the two contenders for the Democratic Party nomination were a woman and a black man. Historic stuff, people.
151 Possum Comitatus I understand that, but if you want change don’t put a General in as VP.
I dont know Harry – these equivalents of US by-elections lately have been suggesting that the Dems will romp home in Congressional and Senate elections – but by-elections often produce exagerrated results.
I’m not conviced that the blue wash will carry though in those races on election day without the EC doing the same. Maybe I’m wrong and it will happen. Polls and intrade data will start to give us an idea at least, on that score come about August or so.
Define change Chris?
Dinsdale
If we lump Bill in with our criticism of team Billary,are we still misogynists?
Please
There has been no Misogyny on this site. Maybe in American media but not here.
What? Everyone keeps going on about Hillary being the last person as VP, as she would stop change. They were never asked to define change.
Longshot, Fallon Poss? Note key words in this & Obama today…
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/06/03/phillips.fallon.talks.cnn?iref=videosearch
#164, Poss, you might just as well ask him to define “love”. it’s over used and meaningless term.
For what it is worth the Dream Team is a marketers dream. The newspapers have already coined that term. It is basically giving their approval to those two candidates. The longer they use it the better. If I were the Democrats I would use that term themselves. Publicity money can’t buy. Does Fox News use that term?
Chris – good for those other folks (and I dont mean any offence there)
I’m just wondering what sort of change you think couldnt happen with a General as VP?
Just because someone was a General doesnt make put them into a straight jacket with their politics (look at Eisenhower and his views on the so called “military industrial complex” for instance), so I’m just wondering what sort of things that having a General as Veep would preclude Obama from changing?
enemy marsupial
#145
“Ron, If I were Obama I wouldnt say ” I not only unconditionally support the Kyoto ratification but I will use all my POTUS influence (considerable) to get the Senate to ratify Kyoto” either.”
Thats the difference between Obama/you and Rudd/me. Rudd was prepared to risk huge opposition scare campaigns from ‘big oil’ , the business & mining sectors and exporters as well as middle class fears on the cost impacts & petrol increases and instead ’sell’ the futuree the benefits for future generations If one cann’t put a political risk line in the sand over Climate & Kyoto (even if its big) , then the rest perhaps by 2020 will be fluff academic and Obama will not say ‘I unconditionally support “ratifying” Kyoto’and so as usual we disagree and are you providing a free link for the ‘bararian bama barometer’ predictor
164 Possum Comitatus Better get Obama to define change.
I am well aware of the propensity of Clintonites to denounce all criticism as sexist. Not me. If I had a vote in this thing, it would be for Obama.
I have a problem with the idea that an accomplished and esteemed woman is some kind of monstrosity because she behaves in exactly the same way as her male counterparts. That’s all.
So fire away at the pro-establishment mindset she represents. It’s the imagery I have a problem with.
170 Possum Comitatus See above. Obama is the one using that term.
Then how could Hillary stop change.
Ron
You are grafting Australian political sensibilities onto the US class system. The wealth and power arrayed against something like Kyoto within the domestically-tied capitalist class in the US is mind-boggling. To take it on in a general election is suicidal and would just ensure the cause would be retarded for years.
Awful I know. That’s the awful reality of US political power.
Bored at work, folks. Bored at work.
Hillary Clinton lost this race because she and her campaign made the same mistake Adam did: they grossly underestimated Obama.
Don’t understimate him in the general election either.
The Democrats are the favoured party in a general election because a majority of independents are in their camp. The only way they lose this is if the party base is split come November. That will only happen if Clinton keeps her supporters clinging to false dreams of a Clinton candidacy; giving them even less time to warm to Obama. Or, more improbably, stealing the nomination and upsetting Obama’s entire support base.
Clinton is the one thing standing in the way or party unity. If Clinton wants the Democrats to win the presidency in November she concedes this now and acknowledges the legitimacy of Obama’s victory.
Whitchurch you were a dupe not a collaborator.
The McLaughlin woman was the honey trap right?
I agree, David. I saw McCain this morning, and he is no master orator. Not a clincher, I know, but Obama against McCain in a debate would be a very different prospect that Bush vs Kerry or Gore, who both looked like northeast patricians.
Obama’s pull is not his leftiness, it’s his homespun popularism. Wait and see.
Chris – you’ve completely confused this marsupial.
You said “if you want change don’t put a General in as VP”
But we dont know what change means, but we do know that regardless of what it means a General couldnt do it?
I’m going to go and climb a tree
I dont actually think Hillary would stop ‘change’ – but some argue, and with good reasons, that the marketing of Obama with the whole “change” theme might not look good with Hillary as Veep because he’d be bringing in a member of one of the Dynasties of the past that were responsible for creating the dysfunctional mess that is US politics at the moment.
Now that’s a fair point because the Clintons bastardised political patronage more so than any other President except the current tool that’s in the Office. But so saying, I also think that making Clinton Veep and (if not giving her SoH to boot) making her the face of Universal Healthcare wouldnt damage that marketing brand of Obamas because universal healthcare in the US is an enormous change by any yardstick.
149 Ian Whitchurch You just defeated your own argument. The huge number of black voters that will come out wll be a strong counter balance to that.
Question for you Obamabots out there,
If Obama is for change – whatever that means, and you cant have a person on the ticket who isnt said to represent change – like HRC then why not have another “change” man on the ticket? To show your really serious about change in Washington.
Surely that has got to be Deval Patrick Governor of Mass.?
Better still would be to make HRC the veep and have Edwards as Sec for Health
What I am saying is that a General is a worse choice than Hillary and looks like someone who would stop the change that Obama is calling for. Not that he can.
#157 Adam, i am really surprised by how little attention has been put on Hillary’s win in SD. Obama was projected to win easily in SD. I pointed it out ealier today. But then again, it’s the same old story:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0608/10829.html
In the end, Obama was pushed over the line by the SDs. I seem to recall that there ware outcries over the possibility that Hillary might win via the SDs. Where are the outcries now.
For a winning candidate, he has no momentum at all since March and just limped across the line. If you look at the 3 speeches today, McCain should not be in any race at all. He should be 200-1. Yet, he is 50-50 against Obama. Below would not help Obama at all.
[Exit polls show challenge for Obama – On the night that Barack Obama clinched his party’s nomination, one-third of Hillary Clinton’s supporters in Montana and South Dakota said they would not vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee. Exit polls from both states demonstrate that Obama inherits a fractured coalition after the longest primary race in modern history. Demographic divisions dug by class, race, gender and political philosophy haunted Obama until his last contests, effectively forcing the Illinois senator to limp across the finish line Tuesday night.
Go for someone as VP who looks like they would be as forward thinking as Obama.
My predictions for Obama’s cabinet:
VICE PRESIDENT Senator Jim Webb of Virginia or Governor Ted Strickland of Ohio
ATTORNEY GENERAL Senator John Edwards
SECRETARY OF STATE Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico
SECRETARY OF HEALTH Senator Hillary Clinton
Another ominous sign of the hopemaster’s failure to unite the Democrats, 117 supers are still to declare a preference. Presumably they are the sensible one’s who dont want to be basted with the turkey sauces.
188 Progressive we need Bill Richardson in the senate. He would be a shoe in in New Mexico.
Health is the perfect job for Hillary in an Obama presidency. But not VP.
I guess it is up to Hillary now.
She either accepts Health Reform Czar ,or something else, and becomes a supportive part of the team
or
She and Bill sulk and destroy their own careers.
Eddy
you seem in a confident and predictive mood today. You got indignant earlier and insisted you predicted K.Rudd would win the election.
Seeing as you’re now predicting November Turkies, how about a flat prediction?
Will McCain or Obama win in Nov?
You can even have 2 stabs at it. Obama/Clinton or Obama/no Clinton tickets.
The turnout has been massive for the democratic primaries. More people voted in the primaries this year some places than voted for Kerry at the General Election in 2004. So perhaps it has not all been bad for the party in the end.
I don’t think all the people who voted for Hillary have the same passion for her over Obama that some of her diehards do. There was an awful lot of “they’re both great candidates” going on at times during the year. Hopefully, when this has all have calmed down soon they will see the light and still vote for Barry.
Chris B,
The issue if you’re trying to win an election is votes in the right places. Pennsylvania and Virginia have Appalachian areas, but they also have large AA populations, so they stay in Obama’s column. WVa, Tenn and KY have more Appalachians and fewer AAs, so he loses more votes than he wins.
ESJ,
So, explain to me again what was allegedly compromised, to whom and for what end. No, really, I’m interested. The boat was an extended media stunt. It was designed to keep the eyes of the world on Timor Leste, and it did that. We did what we set out to do. It worked.
On US politics … John McCain polled disgustingly weakly recently Indiana – 77% of the vote ! North Carolina, 73.5% of the vote. Pennsylvania, 72.8% of the vote.
And remember, this is against opponents who have dropped out.
Remember, 25% of Republicans have shown they dont want John McCain. Add to that his fundraising problems, his staff problems and his pathetic and useless recent speeches … and you’ve got yourself a genuine November Loser.
HarryH,
Or, she goes back to being Senator for New York … a job of not inconsiderable influence.
HarryH,
I’ll make a call at the end of September. If the hopemaster is not 10 points in front at that stage he will definitely lose.
I think Adam’s comment was a fair summary of why the hopemaster is a turkey waiting to baste.
Once again for the slow learners if the hopemaster is such a winner (even after winning a rigged process) how come 117 supers still havent endorsed?
Secondly if he wins he will get nothing done – the conservatives (which include the dems) wont touch him with a barge pole once the liberal stuff is teased out – he is very much a Lathamesque figure in an American context. After all he has 40 negative ratings in what 6 months of campaigning it took HRC 8 years to get that high.
Ian and the McLaughlin woman?
It was a provocation set up by Kopassus to flush out independence supporters which you clowns fell into and many people suffered as a result.
Wed June 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/jerryholbert;_ylt=AmOof_QkRXQcPd6uCeAQ7ybb.sgF
Thanks, Grace.
Eddy 196
So you don’t really think Obama is a November Turkey yet? you’re not that confident yet?
You were only bloviating earlier? you know…pissing into the wind so to speak?
No doubt about it – Sth Dakota is a disappointment for The Kid and means that he just flops over the line rather than storms home. It’s been a tough race. I can’t recall another primary this close ever.
But for a guy nobody had heard of a year ago to cross the line ahead of Brand Clinton remaons one of the astounding political feats of recent memory. He came from so far back he could barely be seen. So Hillary went for a campaign stroll and The Kid overtook her when she wasn’t looking.
So, yes I’d have preferred Obama to have won both of today’s contests to put a stamp of authority on his win. But in the end is it less authoratative because the contest ended as it has mostly been fought – with split victories? I think those discussions will be drowned out by the cheering.
And speaking of South Dakota – did anyone notice that McCain could only manage 70% of the vote in his shadow boxing match against Ron Paul and Huckleberry? That’s gotta be a worry for the Repugs. The Dems in that state also brought out the voters 2:1 over the GOP.
Judgement Day is a-comin! (Huckabee should appreciate that).
HarryH,
Enjoying your attempt at Socratic questioning.
Yes the hopemaster looks, smells and feels like a turkey, the confirmation of turkey status will be in by September.
Adam, I don’t buy this at all.
The reason why Hillary continued to win a number of states after Super Tuesday was because many of those had poor, low educated populations who have consistently flocked to Hillary in preference over Obama.
According to the polls, if we re-ran the primaries now, I would expect Obama to win even more convincingly. California, for example, a big delegate-rich state is now swinging firmly toward Obama while it didn’t earlier on.
The problem with your reasoning is that it is really nothing more than contempt in disguise. Clearly, you think the people made a mistake voting for Obama and you don’t think they would make the same mistake twice. That’s nonsense. If anything, Hillary has lost respect over the primary season with her various gaffes and smear tactics.
And to all those who keep trying to extrapolate primary results to the general election, you are making a BIG mistake. Too often, I see people ASSUMING that just because Hillary got more votes in one state, those people would not vote for Obama. This is crazy. A PREFERENCE is just that, a preference. It is not a black-and-white, “I would vote for Hillary and nobody else”.
The only conclusions you can draw from the primaries is that, overall, people preferred Obama, and that Obama has strengths with the upper class whites, blacks, professionals, and young people, while being weaker amongst the working class, Hispanics, and Je-ws. This means that Obama needs to work on getting more support from these latter groups, but it would be wrong to assume he doesn’t have any support from such groups.
I was really surprised by how confident and high spirit Hillary looked today. Especially for someone who have just lost the biggest prize. Maybe she does know something we dont know.
The rumour mill is in overdrive about Michelle’s Holy Whitey at Trinity. If so, Barack would be FARC as they say in Columbia.
Time for the crow calls Finns? In that case it would be black and white to paraphrase Noocat.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2008/06/obamas_tko.html
More portents of doom for the hopemaster.
Richardson, Warner and Webb are surely needed in the Senate?
Have big doubts about Sebelius adding anything to the ticket apart from being a woman – Kansas is a pipe-dream state for November EC purposes?
Have always supported Obama, but I think he needs HRC on the ticket.
She needs to be convincing as a team player – her speech tonight not good enough. But she has time.
Giving her SecHealth as well would be a great move, but what about their difference on Mandates?
If Obama campainged with a team comprising HRC (on board in full) as VP + SecHealth, Edwards as AG and Biden as SecState – geez, that’d be powerful?
Whilst anything can happen in the campaign (McCain losing the plot, etc), the prudent thing to do would be to maximise his chances in the Rust Belt and Nth Central states. There is no better pick than Clinton, surely? The onus is on her to come to the party now – if she does convincingly, then he’d be taking a big risk not to choose her.
Eddy 202
So he’s alledgedly a November Turkey? He could be a turkey….but he might not be a turkey?
cmon man. you were so confident earlier. as Carville would say…put ya cajones on the table.
What’s with all the angst about S.D. being some kind of let-down for The Kid? He was 18% behind in “the polls” from memory and he sailed in at a 10% loss by ten and a half thousand votes Statewide while he was stitching up the Supers for today’s spillover that annointed him.
Not a bad week’s work really.
Like every sperm, every ECV is sacred but you’d have to be applying Hillary Math to figure Sth.Dak.’s 3 ECVs are gonna swing it for Obi one way or the other come November.
—————
Tues June 3:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/mikeluckovich;_ylt=Apj31l0vunla06ngacINNURS_b4F
207 Expat Follower Spot on about Richardson, Warner and Webb. Breaking the filibuster with 60 votes, means we can bring in the change we need. Although their is another 3rd of the senate up for election in 2010.
HarryH,
My condolences to you if you suffer from anxieties about penis size and quality
Eddy
i guess that means you’re gonna sit on the fence until Election Eve then huh lol.
You’re gonna bloviate for the next 2 months about what a turkey Obama is without the conviction that he really is a turkey.
Pretty much sums up your M.O.
My tip – she makes the decision tomorrow night.
Chris – they’ve got to replace Pelosi & Reid (who appear to suck badly)… some good candidates in the Senate (Webb – too jnr), surely also in the House (??). Just not sure where the numbers are in terms of unseating them, but a more heavyweight crewto work with Obama’s exec team could really produce interesting results…
What do people think of Biden for SecState?
Clark for SecDef… I dunno. Where can Dodd fit in – he’s impressive.
156
Possum Comitatus
You’ve presented a strong and pragmatic case for hauling Clinton out of the water and onto the Obama ship, but it’s going to irk a lot of people. The question is can the irked be mollified with a Democratic wipeout of the Republicans? I suppose it depends on how it’s presented and how Hillary Clinton behaves, but so far she does not exactly inspire on that front.
And as for keeping Bill chained up! God help Obama if he’s got to put up with that old Alpha dog limping around in the background. Sedate him for four years maybe?
Personally I’d be surprised if Obama offers her VP, but I’d understand the decision.
215
Expat
Don’t discount Dick Lugar(R) or Chuck Hagel(R) as either VP(longshots) or more likely one of the defence portfolios.
I’m still intrigued by David Axelrod’s deliberate insertion of Lugar’s name in his interview today before Obama’s acceptance speech.
Senator Clinton deserves every single word of praise spoken by Senator Obama in Minnesota. I would be delighted if she does become Senator Obama’s choice for Vice Presidential nominee. However, she’s much more valuable in the Senate and well-placed there for another run at the Presidency in 4/8 years.
Watching Senator McCain kickoff the General Election with multiple egregious falsehoods at his “huge” rally of 200 Republicans makes me acutely aware that there’s no more time to waste before Democrats fully unite. This is doubly true for those Americans deeply worried about civil rights, especially the rights of women secured in Roe vs. Wade. The next Supreme Court appointments must not be made by Senator McCain.
Following such a long, bellicose and heated Primary process, are the Democrats mature enough to refocus, immediately, all their resources and energy to ensure the election of Senator Obama?
159
Possum Comitatus
One point about the cry ’someone should do something’, which is maybe except for Kosovo, when did the US do what anyone thought would be a good thing to do?
Iraq was clearly NOT in that category, and Afghanistan was done with bombers at 20,000 feet and CIA guys with bags of money…in other words, a cock-up.
I know people like to think the US is the big strong daddy who can defeat the bad guy, but you’d hardly say so on recent performances, would you?
“Per Obama communications director Robert Gibbs: At about 12:16 am ET Obama and Clinton chatted by phone where Obama congratulated her and reiterated his offer to “sit down when it makes sense for you.”
Gibbs suggests Clinton responded affirmatively, but wasn’t specific. “There are no plans to meet tomorrow” as of now.”
http://thepage.time.com/
Prof Higgins
This was Hillary’s one and only shot at the presidency.
However, even a Clinton hater like myself agrees that she has earnt a rise in the Senate. Harry Reid is a dud. But could they shanghai her up the ladder?
That eternal sook and creep, The Senior Senator from New York Chuck Schumer would scream blue murder, as would Dick Durbin. But i agree she could do good work in the Senate.
Betfair Odds: $1.57 Obama $2.98 McCain.
I would suggest that ESJ should get the biggest possible loan he can and place it all on McCain.
The treachery of the hopemaster predicted by Nostradamus
Sad counsels, disloyal, cunning,
Wicked advice, the Law will be betrayed:
The people stirred, wild, quarrelsome,
In borough as in town, the entire peace hated.
Nostradamus XII Century, 55th Quatrain
ESJ, if you were McCain who would you pick as running mate & why?
HarryH, if Obama picks some flake and McCain runs a good campaign (possible), then HRC is a shoo-in for the nomination in 2012? She just has to not obviously undermine Obama (eg, say she wants to focus on her Senate role) in the campaign. Of course if he wins, then she is screwed!
ESJ-
resorting to 13th century predictions is about as relevant as the rest of your
commentary tonight. – penis size?? Gawd’s sake man.
Finns- I’d rather be on a high-horse than a pompous ass.
Wed June 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AiKqzG8Umw7FZiZninTDmPBJ_b4F
ESJ 223
What an accurate picture of the state of Australia 1996-2008.
jen – [Finns- I’d rather be on a high-horse than a pompous ass] – i notice you have caught Showy’s disease, namely good at describing yourself.
gotta love some of these girls.
read Ginger Snaps – she got it.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/xxfactor/
Also according to the Betting market McCain has 1 in 30 chance of not making it to the convention.
People like Obama only come around once in a lifetime.
224- If Obama loss as he is too “unconventional” then expect a “White Male” to be the candidate in 2012.
come on Finns- you can do way better than “anyway anyway, you are.”
btw – how are you coping with the outcome? Please tell me you won’t be supporting McCain in defiance. Come aboard and all will be forgiven – we can be a role model for the divided Dems.
B.S.Fairman
Going by Macca’s speech today i’d say anyone who attends one of his rally’s has a 1 in 30 chance of slipping into a coma.
225
Jen
It seems that now Eddy is bereft of a purpose, ie cheer the candidate most of us realised would lose, he’s at a loose end, so has reverted to his usual charming self and is flinging his own faeces around again.
Harry- not before he does.
234
HarryH
LOL, shorter odds than that I’d say HH!
Looking back over the last 18 months Obama has produced an upset more unlikely than Bangladesh beating Australia in a 1 day match. Would think anyone in Democrats would be keen to be a team player given the chance win Presidency and to get 60 in the Senate, if not this time then 2010 and having the chance to weild some serious power. So, hopefully little chance of Hilary and Bill being public nuisances over the next few months.
The biggest problem for the Democrats and Obama is their own internal difficulties with conflicting policy directions, influence of military industrial corporate lobbyists, etc. Good luck to Barack and Michelle. Seriously likely to challenge the entrenched establishment, at least in some ways.
Jen
Finns has set the bar that unless Barry implicitly says he will immediately ratify Kyoto, then Finns has the right to hate on the black man all the way to Nov. and beyond.
223 ESJ
Nostradamus? I was wondering what happened to that PB poster. Sounds about as reliable as ever.
But it’s good you’re still in touch with him.
jen, like i said just earlier. look at the 3 speeches today. I give Obama 9, Hillary 7 and McCain 2.
McCain and the Repugs should be so far behind, you cant even see them and the Dems can just walk across the line. But the reality is McCain Vs Obama is 50-50. Now you tell me why.
OK Finns- my understanding is that there are no polling figures as yet reflecting the fact that there is now a decided Democrat nominee, rather than a divided Dem vote.
With Hillary as VP, Obama would bury McCain. Everyone talking about the swing that is coming in the polls now that the Democratic nomination is settled is, I suspect, engaging in a bit of wishful thinking. It may turn out to be true, of couse, but until we see the numbers, assumptions on polls are not that useful a basis on which to make decisions. On current polling, Ohio (or perhaps Ohio and Virginia, depending on what sites you examine) is still the key to an Obama victory. If he does not bring Hillary into the tent, to use Possum’s phrase, then she (and, more importantly, her supporters) will piss into it.
This is a significant point, by the way: if Hillary’s supporters think that she has been unfairly treated, then some will, out of vengeance, vote for McCain. In certain states, this could be very damaging and threatens to make the race much closer than it should be.
While I think that Obama will likely win, I only think that he will win big if Hillary strongly supports him. She may not strongly support him just for health care. She will definitely strongly support him if she gets VP with an implied second shot at the presidency in eight years.
Um…is it a divided party driven by Hills (now kaput) candidacy, along wih her fuzzy logic and stirring of her dumb supporters with lines about gas tax, bombing Iran, Commanders in Chief and sexism Finns? If so that problem will recede now that she has lost. Watch out for that Obama bump!
Well what a fun day that was.
I guessed that the Obama camp had 30 supers up his sleeve for today and the kid goes and pulls out 60. I still keep being impressed at the measured and disciplined way the Obama camp has conducted under months of pressure.
Now we’re onto the VP question and Clinton is putting herself in the mix. Based on the chatter in here, I put some money on Webb and I think I’ll lay off as I really have no idea how this will pan out.
If I had to make a guess, I’d say the Obama camp will, with a great sigh. sign up Clinton for VP and SoH.
She’ll deliver key idiot demographic that missing is from the Obama profile.
Its better than the devil finding work for idle hands if they don’t pick her.
Oh, and I am a Hillary supporter who would vote for Obama regardless of who was VP, but – and this is another key support – I would not be wholehearted about it. I was very disappointing that Hillary did not get the nomination. Not disappointed enough to be an arsehole, but disappointed enough to realise that there would be plenty of others who might very well be disappointed enough to be so. Just a warning from my own personal internal narrative.
The tale of Robert Taft and Dwight D. Eisenhower. You see, in politics, what is new is old, there is no such thing as NEVER and there is no permanant frienship only permanent interest.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Taft
Much as I feel anxious at the idea of having Billary wandering the halls of the Whitehouse again, angry that they’re not back in the residence where they clearly believe they belong, I also want to see the Repugs get totally obliterated. I reckon Obama could win without Hillary, but it would be a total wipeout if she was VP.
Maybe Obama could draw up a ‘Pre-nup’ – where if she was caught with a dagger at the ready she gets tossed out with nothing.
d’oh – bloody typos
What if she used a dagwood dog, though?
Ah, that MoDo has a way with words:
He thought a little thing like winning would stop her?
Oh, Bambi.
Whoever said that after denial comes acceptance hadn’t met the Clintons.
If Hillary could not have an acceptance speech, she wasn’t going to have acceptance.
NYT
…sums her up, really.
The reality is on SBS right now.
Well David, I think poisoning him would also count as very naughty.
248
Jen
Jen, it’s getting awfully like Greek tragedy already, and the unkillable harridan does not need to be pre-nutped, she needs neutering! LOL
If you don’t get the pre-nup right, she’ll get you on a technicality. Really, you Obama people are like babes in the woods.
It’s not the legal technicality that I’m worried about – it’s the revenge.. you know,
prawns in the curtain hems in the Oval office and such like.
Forget the pre-nup – Just keep Clinton busy – I think this is why they will give her SoH.
Commisar Jen’s here surely Doktor Robert is sure to follow………
Well, given that Hillary had already measured the curtains, that might well be an issue …
#256 – Jen, what about Bill and Michelle then. Can they be left alone?
Isn’t it rich, aren’t we a pair
Me here at last on the ground – and you in mid-air
Send in the clowns
Ferraro’s continued harping about Obama’s sexism gets a thorough deconstruction here: http://www.theroot.com/id/46697#
“Ferraro has a right to her opinions but her drumbeat of nonsense should not go unchallenged. If race were not a factor in this election, she would not be harping on it every chance she gets. At least voters in Indiana, Pennsylvania, Kentucky and elsewhere who felt comfortable saying on television that they could not, and would not, vote for a black man, were being honest. Ferraro’s comments, on the other hand, speak volumes about the depth of her intellectual dishonesty.”
Sigh. The Richardson-for-the-Senate baloney rears its head again.
Warner and Webb, yes. Richardson, no.
The New Mexico primaries were last night. Tom Udall (D) will face Steve Pearce (R) in the general election. Polls show Udall with a wide lead. The other New Mexico Senate seat is held by Democrat Jeff Bingaman. So Richardson doesn’t fit into this picture.
A question to the experts. Once elected – can a president change VPs?
I would imagine so. I would also expect that it could be terribly damaging to the party to do it. Hillary has enough supporters to make sure that Obama could not do it without destroying his own presidency and burning the Democratic Party to the ground.
However, on a positive note, it would certainly be change that we could believe in.
footnote: I’m not an expert
Harry H,
Spot on about Senate Majority Leader Reid, who has been repeatedly outwitted by the Repubs and Lieberman for two years. Clinton would be a huge improvement.
If she is not Veep nominee, I’m not worried about a significant % of Clinton Democrates voting for McCain, but a fair number would follow any coded messages from key Clinton surrogates to sit it out and certainly to eschew shelling out donations. That’s just what an equally fair swag of Ron Paul’s, Mike Huckabee’s or Mitt Romney Repubs are likely to do if their preferred Veep candidate is not running with McCain.
Finns – I’m sure Michelle would know to steer well clear of Bill. In fact if they get VP, my guess is there will be staff training sessions on protective behaviours and personal alarms handed out for all the women. And of course, no tobacco products.
I think I may be wrong about the VP thing. The VP is an elected official in their own right. I do not think that they can be sacked by the president.
There is nothing wrong with tobacco products between consenting adults – in moderation, of course.
There might be something wrong with Bill Clinton between consenting adults, howver.
So jen, i assume the NSC has to issue an edict on a security device for the female staff like this:
http://trulyequal.files.wordpress.com/2007/02/chastity-belt.jpg
What i have been most impressed about with Barack Obama’s campaign, and why i don’t quite understand others doubts about him, is that he has beaten the vaunted Clinton Machine on his own.
The Clintons had Hillary, Bill and Chelsea all campaigning non-stop for the whole campaign.
Obama did it on his own. No big backers…just himself and his message.
He didn’t have Richardson to help him in Texas or New Mexico or Nevada or Colorado or Florida.
He didn’t have Edwards to help him in the Carolinas or Virginia.
He competed in those states first, by himself, and then those guys came on board afterwards.
The only help he enlisted for the whole campaign was Bob Casey in Pennsylvania. And he didn’t help one bit. Casey’s catholic conservatives still voted for Hillary, which is totally reasonable to understand.
So all the support he has he has earned himself…with his message, his policies and his style.
With all the Party’s diverse personalities and resources now behind him he will surely improve in his weaker areas of support.
Democrat women and Democrat poor are not going to vote McCain OR sit out.
The only Dem votes Obama will lose are the racists…and they won’t vote for him even with Hillary as his VP.
He has expanded the Dem voter base and the all important Independants are going to vote Democrat over Republican. A lot of them have now already been registered as Democrats through these Primaries.
As for McCain holding onto all the splintering Repug factions….well thats another post altogether.
Jen 267
Its the Democrats not the Australian Greens. I am sure they can be civil.
There is a mechanism to replace Vice-Presidents mid-term, as when Ford replaced Agnew and Rockefeller replaced Ford.
However, I’m pretty sure a Vice-President has to quit of their own accord. I don’t believe the President can force the issue.
Well anyway, apart from being one heatbeat from the top job – does the VP job carry any additional authority? I don’t think she get a set of keys to private quarters of the white house.
Why not give the slot to Clinton and ensure McSame goes down?
Pah – Jen, Finns – Michelle could dispatch of Billy with one hand tied behind her back. What a First Lady she’ll be. Just as Bill’s 90s will be put in the shade by Barack, Hills’ squandered time will also be eclipsed by Michelle.
HarryH, I think that you are overgeneralising. A lot of non-racist Clinton supporters will not vote for Obama not because he is black but because he is not her.
Dinsdale Piranha
#176
Thanks for your Kyoto post & its honesty Politics is ful of difficult choices , my marsupial enemy was a step short of that direction , but you’ve said it which I’ve been waiting 3 months for somones to say Today I echoed Hillarys congratulattions and for me till midnight so I can only say in general terms I feel its not suicidal , a general election environment is the perfect time (with risk) to point out to voters already receptive against big self interests groups their masive conflict of interest & so potentially make a net voter gain.
Finally I do acknowledge your broad point Dinsdale , however for one of our biggest crisises (Kyoto & Climate) , if one is not going to put that issue on the table in a general election , when is it ever going to be put on the table. Conversely , getting it through the Senate is itself a huge political challenge & peopl forget whilst Bill Clinton ’signed’ the original treaty , Senate ratification was the main problem because he did not have a “voters mandate”. A mandate via a general election I feel is a perquisite to Senate ratification & to ‘influencing’ reluctant Senators. Hillary’s plan was a Kyoto mark 11 by 2010 for post 2013 emission targets to achieve base by 2020 set by the 400 odd scientists For mine the selling of “Kyoto” benefits have been poor generally world wide both in environmentel terms , human/animal survival terms & that economic costs of delayed actions will be greater
WTR – VPs get the deadlock breaking vote in the Senate in case of a 50-50.
For the factually inclined – Hillary’s energy policy is here: http://hillaryclinton.com/issues/energy/
Targets, you will notice, are the same as Obama’s. The difference is in her lack of mention of an international framework.
WTR- No the President can’t change VP mid-term. The VP is an elected officer by the electoral college. (In the early days, pre-1800 the VP was actually the runner up. So Jefferson was Adams VP, but they ran against each other.)
The President can ask a VP to resign but has no power to make the VP quit. But they can run with a different VP candidate at the next election. FDR had several VPs in his four terms. Ford ran with Bob Dole in 76 but his VP was Nelson Rockerfeller.
Pancho – excellent snipit of knowledge.
Still its not really a big piece of power for Obama to ceed to Clinton.
The more I think about it, the more it seems, wtf, let be VP if they keeps her camp onside.
She can campaign in the “fly over” states & florida and ensure a republican wipe out.
David 276
Why?
If it was tomorrow then maybe they wouldn’t but time heals.
What would they have against Obama?
Hillary doesn’t OWN these people. They just preferred her as Dem nominee. The women are most angry , understandably so because their dream of a woman POTUS has been taken away .
But any woman that is that strong on womens rights or womens empowerment isn’t going to vote for McCain and his Supreme Court.
A lot of pundits are dreaming that Hillary OWNS her supporters. The Dems OWN them. There are hardly any swingers in there.
Gee Jen,
You are firing on all 8 cylinders tonight, there is alot of passion in your comments but I can’t work out your point
Is it that, of the two great icons of victimhood, black african or woman, the greatest democracy on earth appears to have confrmed male octoroon as more deserving of the nomination?
If only the candidates had come sequentially, 4 years apart
For the glass half empty folks:
Five years ago, Obama was a little-known Illinois state senator embarking on an uphill race for the U.S. Senate. Think of all the ambitious Democrats who have eyed the White House in this decade — John Kerry, John Edwards, Howard Dean and all the rest — and realize how Obama just blew past them without ever working up a sweat. This is an up-from-nowhere narrative that puts all modern politicians to shame. Even though Obama’s cool charisma often evokes memories of John Kennedy, JFK had spent 14 years dabbling in Congress before he ran in 1960.
Salon
…and that’s the point, that this guy has done the unthinkable and rolled Hillary Clinton from so far back in the field nobody even knew how to pronounce his name.
Smooth operator.
#283 – dont worry. she never had one.
Harry H @ 192 says to ESJ -Will McCain or Obama win in Nov?”"
@196 Edward StJohn Says:
HarryH gave you the chance to be actually express an opinion about something other than fellow posters, and you demurred. Not to put too fine a point on it, that is a dead set softc*ck wimp response ESJ. I know KR goes off, but you do behave like a transparent niggling nobody, who runs way from stating a position. The Gerard Henderson of PB.
Mr Squiggle-
just having fun really. Main point being that I am delighted Obama has won, I ubderstand that Hillary makes an attractive proposition as VP, but I don’t trust her.
Nothing very complex I’m afraid. I’ll leave that to Ron and ESJ- incomprehensible in fact.
Excellent!
June 4 has arrived, and electoral-vote.com has started the general election battle.
Time to roll boys and girls
LOL – JV
I feel no need to get into a masculinity contest.
I think we have all focused on one team but yes I personally would like to see how the other team performs. To me it seems very much like one team (McCain) has been training in secret and we just havent seen the moves they will put on yet.
I expect the hopemaster to take a lead in the next 3 months but for that to be pegged back, I believe he is a fatally flawed candidate hence my turkey comments but yes sometimes the turkey does escape the butchers knife.
Obama’s speech was tremendous, very (overly) nice to Hillary. I sincerely hope he doesnt choose her as VP, maybe Health Secretary??? She has too many negatives, too much baggage, she is the antithesis of the change message, and quite frankly she has behaved so badly she doesnt deserve it. My only concern is that the Hillary supporters are quite bitter, and may not turnout or vote McCain, but I think Obama has 5 months to win them over and will do so, particularly if Hillary doesnt behave badly
ESJ youre doing great in your spoiler role, but guess what you can say turkey all night if you wish doesnt change the fact that Obama WON. And seriously, did you see Obama and McCain’s speeches?? And the crowds at each??
I have previously stated that there was no way the Americans were going to vote for a black president whose middle name is Hussein 7 years after 9/11.
Believe me, I hate getting it wrong, but now that Barack is the Democrats nomination – I had bloody better be.
Go Obama.
As perhaps the most virulent Hillary-hater at PB, the thought of Hillary and Bill being “co-VPs” fills me with bilious nausea (BTW someone earlier said Nausea was a Sartre play, it was actually quite a readable and enjoyable existentialist novel).
However, we have to remove emotion from the equation and I would prefer an easy victory with Hillary as VP (which is largely ceremonial, just look at what Bill did to the environment with Gore as VP) to a small chance of a loss with someone else. Obama could just get her to sit in the corner and screw up the universal health care again.
I make no secret that I admire Juan Cole for his astute observations and historical knowledge, but sometimes he just ‘gets it’ in ways you don’t see anywhere else.
His first comment is that everyone is carried away with Obama being black, but why not Hawaiian? Remember, it was asked often enough early on, ‘is he black enough?’
But he gets it right with metro-racial, and how this really applies to a heck of a lot of Americans who don’t see things in such narrow polarised categories as ‘black and white’.
Oh, and it’s the Web 2.0 thing, without which Obama could not have done it.
Intelligent comment:
http://www.juancole.com/
Just looking at the demographic breakdown from the 2004 election from Wikipedia:
The two education level fields that Kerry won were No High School and Post-Graduate Study. So it is the middle level of Some College and College Graduates which need to be touched by Obama.
Bush also got 45% of 18 to 30 vote. So Obama does need to bring out the Young as he is supposed too.
As for Union members being the key they only made up 14% of the voters and then 38% backed Bush anyway.
Max
I see Missouri has moved over to Blue already
Diog old son, some anger management would help
Now that Clinton has been removed from the frontpage graphic, of perhaps more interest on e-v.com than the fact Obama leads McCain by about 60 votes is that the predictions currently show the Senate numbers at 58-42.
Diogenes wash your mouth out!! You cant possibly want Hillary. I think she is overall a negative and the VP candidate I dont think counts that much in terms of getting votes anyway (Edwards who seemed a good choice for Kerry did nothing in the south)
293
Diogenes
It’s hard I know, to separate the rather vile narcissism of Hillary from her utility to the party in another role in November, but I guess that’s the kind of real world decision making that will happen.
But just to let you know, I ain’t so keen on her either, and would much prefer to see the Clinton era as TV re-runs rather than Hillary lurking behind the arras as VP.
I find those who opinions are derived entirely from other peoples commentary so tiresome.
Your comments of course Andrew are entirely original.
FINNS
For anyone innterested in seeing Hillary’s exact words to set up & sign Kyoto mark ii , that I referred to in # 277 see below.You know however references to Hillary/Kyoto are a red herring. The issue was Obama not supporting Kyoto ratification (not Hillary) Today first you then I , asked (for about the 20th time since March) “will Obama support ratifying Kyoto” and “if not why not”. As of now your questions & mine have been avoided. (thanks dinsdale)
Hillary 2008 “One of the worst messages the President (Bush) sent was when he took office and rejected completely Kyoto. He could have said we don’t like Kyoto but we’re immediately starting a new process. But that didn’t happen I’ll change that by leading the process to develop a new treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012. One of the worst messages the President sent was when he took office and rejected completely Kyoto. He could have said we don’t like Kyoto but we’re immediately starting a new process. But that didn’t happen. Well, come January 2009, I’m sending a different message. I want to act quickly to help develop a new treaty. I will engage in high level meetings with leaders around the world every three months, if that’s what it takes to hammer out a new agreement. My goal will be to secure a deal by 2010. We can’t wait for two more years. Hillary would act quickly in 2009 to restore U.S. leadership in the global warming arena by playing an active role in developing the post-Kyoto treaty. As a guide to the treaty, Hillary would propose a science-based goal to limit global warming to levels needed to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of climate change. She would re-engage in negotiations, work to bring rapidly developing nations like China and India along, and convene high-level meetings every three months with the goal of getting a new deal in place by 2010, two years ahead of Kyoto’s expiration.
KR
i’m not sure if you were watching CNN today but
They were saying all the PC things and how this was a monumental day in history with the first black nominee and what a proud moment this would be for Barack….then Barry hit the podium and
Not 1 word about being the first black, or history making or any of that stuff….he was just the candidates for Americans.
The Baby Boomers in the media just don’t get it. Those fights are over…especially now. Barack gets it.
I love those comments HarryH its kind of the OMG its all gone wrong for years because we have had cynical calculating politicians in charge and all we need is one good man to change it.
Entirely naive.
Jen,
Is the glass half full or empty for you just now?
I was in the US when the black caucusus debate was televised and I really couldn’t see any rational reason to choose Obama over Hillary.
She walked all over him in the debate. He was really average and Hillary outskilled him when the pressure was on.
Have the dems chosen the best presidential candidate or just the better democrat?
My view is the secong….its like watching Rudd with 18 breifing papers in Parliament, you just know he wasn’t ideal, he was just there when the tipping point came along
we are all naive compared to you Eddy,it’s just that most of us are relevant also though.
i think the depression stage has just hit the Obamabots here that the POTUS is actually for Obama to lose. How many times do i have to say that Obama needs Hillary more than Hillary needs Obama.
[It’s Now All About Respect – By winning the nomination, Obama supporters may feel that they have gained the upper hand in debates with Hillary supporters, but this is a false perception. This campaign is not over until the race is over. Political campaigns can never afford the luxury of feeling superior to anyone. Obama may have won the nomination but it will mean nothing if he does not win the General Election in November, and to do that he needs the votes and even the enthusiastic support of Hillary and her supporters. Clinton’s supporters cannot be insulted, bullied, or guilted into enthusiastic support in the fall………..
Specifically, there are three areas where Obama supporters need to look at their current posture and messages and prove that “change” is not an empty promise of a “new politics” by changing their message to something more welcoming, inclusive, and respectful.
First, stop labeling Clinton and her supporters as the politics of the past.
Second, Democrats need to reclaim the luster of the Clinton years.
Third, embrace feminism as one of the indispensable pillars of the Democratic coalition.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/its_now_all_about_respect.html
Of course your important too HarryH
Rumour: Obama and Hillary are meeting later this week!
I’d be OK with a joint ticket, but I wonder if it can work in reality! Of course Obama has to bring Hillary and her supporters on board in some way, that’s obvious! As said earlier, with a team behind him of Clinton, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Tom Daschle etc, he will win this thing in November!
McCain looks like a sad, old loser in comparison.
v.true Finns
Does Hilary deserve to be VP:
argument for no – she’s run a pretty nasty and divisive campaign
argument for yes – she’s won almost 50% of democrat support
Should Hilary be chosen as VP:
argument for no – not a change persona, not a team player
argument for yes – she can help to deliver votes that help Obama win
The “yes” arguments are more persuasive in both cases to me…
I’d be more worried that she has a 2012 strategy in mind – publicly focus on her senatorial ambitions and hope Obama loses. Of course, that’s risky for her if he wins! Too big a risk for her to turn down VP now, I would think.
Can Obama win over Hilary-fans – yes. Can McCain flop so badly that he can’t win – yes… but does the risk of HRC as VP outweigh the reward of an almost certain win? (Mind you risk might include a higher probability of being assassinated)…
That’s me being conciliatory to the Clinton supporters! Believe it or not, I really do like Hillary, I think she’s still got a lot to offer!
Potential Obama running mate profile:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deval_Patrick
Have a look at Terry McAuliffe here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/4/7336/07191/721/529130
He’s actually a pretty funny guy.
Diogenes re the VP – I agree generally, but must disagree on Hillary for VP – as stated by others earlier – she is steeped in the old politics and has more baggage than Imelda Marcos. No General is necessary but someone with strengths in addition to Obama’s. They are all there in the Betfair list.
#302 – Ronnie, i was actually a touch more gentle with Obambi here. I simply asked him to sign Kyoto first, simply symbolically as a commitment to real change.
The Votemaster is up and running with his map. Here is the state of play at the moment. Obama 287 McCain 227 Ties 24. As more polls com in the maps will become more accurate, I doubt that Florida will stay like that. The data is updated daily, and as the formula kicks in we shall get a better idea how things are going.
http://www.electoral-vote.com
ESJ- you still can’t get yourself up for a … prediction, can you. Dont worry , if you look on the internet you might see some ads for a blue pill.
I am going to have to work out where I can. I never realised I could until tonight. I mean I knew I was an American Citizen by birth, but I didn’t realised I could register to vote from aboard.
Hey Finns ol chap
Have you seen the map on your favoured http://www.electoral-vote.com today?
Diogenes and KR, Hillary could bring over her supporters with a major non-VP role such as health
#310 ESJ – Has Evil Hillary has morphed into St. Hillary right before our eyes tonight. Amazing.
HarryH, given Obama is already 60 votes ahead, I dont think electoral-vote is going to be Finns favorite site anymore!!
307 Finns
The “feminism” line is pure BS. Billary got where she is PURELY due to who she married. Without her husband, she would have been a nobody. True feminists want a woman to be POTUS who got there on her own merit, not riding on the coat-tails of her husband.
Sibelius and Pelosi are much better examples for feminists.
I’d look into Pelosi’s history a bit more closely before you make that claim Diogenes. I think you will find big daddy played a part as did her husband.
Finns more on that theme below
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/if_clinton_wants_to_be_vp_obam.html
Diog, need any help in enrollment in the anger management course?
FINNS
Amigo you have always been the more gentile , but clarity especially with characer & gates , leaving the 1200 BC arrows with the barbarian Amigo , perhaps today we made the point finally on the ‘green’ issue
Check out the Senate race also, almost 60 seats to defeat the filibuster.
Who kidnapped GG?
#325 ESJ, Bob Beckel apparently is predicting Michelle Holy Whitey at Trinity is a coming.
Andrew, to what extent do you think is their difference on the qn of mandates a potential problem?
You reckon she’d give up potential Senate leadership role for exec role that didn’t include VP (am not refuting it, just not so sure)?
If she’s acceptable enough to be part of the team as SecHealth, then why not VP? Either she should be part of the team or not – yes but not for VP doesn’t make a lot of sense to me…
Pancho
Terry McAuliffe has been on a bender since Puerto Rico. He’s been pissed at every appearance he’s made.
ESJ, methink jen baby had him in a chastity belt as shown earlier
I am having another “road to Damascus” moment on the VP subject. I had one when Rudd and Gillard were preparing to roll Beazley back in 2006; I wasn’t against it at first but then thinking about it, it made a lot of sense. Since then I have never regretted changing my opinion.
Hillary as VP would create an unprecidented double (or even triple) headed monster and it would be politically very unorthodox. But then again, if there is one thing Obama is not, it is orthodox. He is about being different and it would be very different. She could use her position as President of the Senate then to push her barrows (Health etc). I can see it making a lot of sense…..
I am still not sure about it but I think it might just have wings (I know kids I am scared myself).
Exactly Diogenes.
the obvious answer to such twaddle that all Feminists support Hillary is to say that the women who supported Obama are not feminists.
Rubbish.
This race is about who has the best policies and ability to lead the United States, not what gender they should be.
Ronnie, the Obamabots are dis-integrating right before our eyes, even without Amigo3. should we send out a search party for Amigo3?
326 Finns
I can assure you the blood runs very cold in my veins. Not a flicker of anger.
I have a question about the VP thing. Does the nominee usually name who their Secretaries during the campaign? I thought they only named the VP and the Secretaries were only decided if they won. If that was the case, Obama would have to break protocol to announce Hillary as SoH during the campaign.
jen, it’s good to see you still around. what have u done with GG.
Mr Squiggle (somewhere back there)-
sadly the glass is actully empty. And there’s no more, but if someone would be so kind as to share…
Obama/John Edwards is still attractive to me, Edwards appeals to much the same constituency as Hillary. I noticed the electricity between the two guys when Edwards endorsed Obama in May! And Senator Edward’s wife is a powerful advocate for health, especially breast cancer prevention.
Actually Finns- I was wondering the same thing. He’s probabaly outside yelling at the passing kiddies to get off the nature strip again. Or just plain sulking.
Was he arrested by a Green snatch squad Jen?
JEN
#335
“This race is about who has the best policies and ability to lead the United States, not what gender they should be.”
Jen , then per your own words you are saying the 60% of white women (vs Obama 40%) who voted for Hilary did so because they thought Hillary “has the best policies and ability to lead the United States” ? just wish to clarify
Me too Progressive. I reckon Edwards would mollify the disgruntled Clinton supporters in time, and Obama and Michelle wouldn’t have to check under the bed everynight.
Ron- not sure if you’ve noticed yet, but Obama has won. ie- hillary lost.
337 – Exactly Diogenes-[I thought they only named the VP and the Secretaries were only decided if they won.]
It would be presumptuous to get down to that sort of detail at this early stage of the general. And, anyway, who cares? Hillary in the meantime can be SoSFA
expat, being VP is more prominent and really blunts the CHANGE message. And could Obama really trust her??
I still think Bill is a liability. There is a whole scope for a lot of questions on his last minute pardons that might be dug up with Hilly is VP candidate.
I can’t see them getting along however and it will annoy the heck out of some of the middle ground. I doubt Obama wants to do that, but if he choose Hillary then I sort of see it working….. I growing cold on it, now I think about it….. maybe I am not turning complete around on the road….. just stopping to consult a map.
Diogenes,
Is electoral fraud justified if it furthers a greater social purpose?
Diogenes – wouldn’t they still indicate who it would be IF they won – particularly this time?
haven’t got a clue really, but it seems to be expected.
Finns- why would the Greens want to snatch Growler?? We have no access to safe storage facilties, and I can’t imagine anyone would pay a ransom.
Jen
you made a statement in #335 , if my #343 was simply asking you to clarify . What did you mean then as to why the white women voted 60% for Hillary ?
(I never gave an opinion , I just you to explain what you meant)
re GG , he’s just has just told me he is quite ovewrwhelmed by the affection shown by blogers re his absence. What happened was the millemiums older bronze arrows take longer to sharpen so assistance was needed by the barbarian & GG is helping and leaving the literary prose posting in my hands so he’s fine & cheerful as all us
Ron- just to be really clear I NEVER mentioned the word ‘White”.
Even Black women can be feminists… surprise!!
Jen, the problem with our hypothesis is that Edwards has repeatedly said no to another run at VP! But in recent polling, it’s been shown that a hypothetical Obama/Edwards ticket would wipe the floor with McCain in many states.
As I said previously, if it’s the only way to keep white women and elderly folk on side, Obama/Hillary is a viable option!
jen, he is a “Greeens” – borough Growler . so obviously you want to reclaim him
Progressive, BS Fairman and Diogenes-
I think we are all dealing with same dilemma , and you can bet your boots Obama is too. Politically it makes sense to try and gain Clinton’s supporters, but she can’t be trusted, and that makes it dangerous.
What to do?…. glad we don’t have to work it out.
Night all.
353 Progressive I’ll second that.
WTF was I thinking. No, I am completely and totally against the idea now. I feel so unclean…. ahhhh….. I going to have a go and have a wash. No, he needs a governor or a general. Hillary is too much like Obama and she has been too much of a liar.
Obama and Hillary together as the Dream Team would wipe the floor.
If you think there is any danger of this election being close, BHO would be utterly crazy to choose Hillary as VP. (And if isn’t going to be close, he might as well choose the person he could work best with post-inauguration, and that surely isn’t her!).
One of McCain’s big problems in this election (he has several) is how to be a moderate (which he probably is by Republican standards, and needs to be to have a chance of getting enough independents), whilst still getting out the Right vote, people who have never trusted him anyway.
Easy solution: have a Clinton on the Dem ticket. Then McCain can be as moderate as he likes, but the Right will still vote for him, just to keep her out.
A Clinton VP candidacy also feeds the most obvious attack line on Obama – that he is a good speaker but fundamentally weak, easily led and naive. “He’s so wet behind the ears he needs Hillary (ie Bill) to tell him how to be President!”.
He’d be mad to even consider it.
I guess at the end of the day, Obama will pick Hillary as his VP candidate only if he thinks he cant win without her. Good old-style politics, I guess.
I think he can win without her
ESJ
That’s a “Do the means justify the ends?” question. I’m not a Kantian so I am not big on the categorical imperative argument. The means can justify the ends in some cases. However “electoral fraud” and “social good” are both terms which are sufficiently vague to render the question one about semantics rather than anything rational.
Andrew,
Picking her takes a lot of the pressure off McCain. Why do it?
FINNS
disintegrating you said , your clarity as usual Amigo is spot on.
I’m still getting over the Obama supporters today making over 100 blogs about Hillary being VP , VP ??? when for the last 3 months up till yesterday she was vile , corrupt , part of the Bush establishment , was not part of the ‘ NEW style of politic’ , Washington whor….type , no integrity , cares about no one but herself , wanted Obama dead were some of the most complementary
BUT the nicest were after her RFK wrong analogy comment where for 2 days Obama supporters said Hillary wanted to hire a hitman to shoot Obama , she’d be happy for him to be dead and her RFK comment was what she really wants for Obama , death now
Is this the same site FINNS Amigo we’ve been on for the last 3 months ?
Dyno I agree, I was trying to say that he will only pick her if she convinces him she cant win without her. I think he can
Ron
I still think she’d be awful tempted with that itchy trigger of hers. She might mistake Obama for a duck.
http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/06/03/bob-beckel-says-shoe-will-drop-on-obama-tomorrow/
More portents of doom.
Diogenes – cop-out.
More worrying; I think the reason the white working class was voting for Hillary was not a vote for Hillary but a vote against Obama. There is no reason adding her would really bring this people onboard. If they are voting against him, add her is not going to help.
Mind you, the white working class is not as big as people claim and it was not an area where Kerry did well last time either.
And we know how John Forbes Kerry ended up dont we?
John Judis with more emphasis on the looming “problem”
http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=66e16e0d-572f-4a38-9ed8-340a4f602341
Jen #355 probably sums it up – Dyno, Andrew, you make a good point on the repub right voting bloc. But he needs to shore up the rust belt – who don’t seem anti Hilary. With them, he can give away the repub right vote and have change to spare?
At a minimum would have to pick someone very amenable to the Hilary supporters and who has rust-belt appeal… Evan Bayh?
Do you really think HRC hurts his prospects in FL, MI, PA, OH and the mid-west more than she helps him? So, he doesn’t take the south (though Arkansas could come into play) but doesn’t need it…
Ron says
“What happened was the millemiums older bronze arrows take longer to sharpen so assistance was needed by the barbarian & GG is helping and leaving the literary prose posting in my hands so he’s fine & cheerful as all us’
Which makes no sense – but its close as you will get to a concession and congratulation to Obama – so enjoy.
Diogenes #365
“Ron
I still think she’d be awful tempted with that itchy trigger of hers. She might mistake Obama for a duck.”
No chance of that. Robert doctorinateEmperius is in charge of the ducks
368 – Lost by a 119,000 votes (Ohio). Highest percentage for a losing candidate every. Who would you have preferred in 2004?
Kerry is a snob. GWB3 a failure.
Gore?
WorktoRule
#370
I did offer congratulations to Obama & his supporters to toiday
Ron 94 Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 2:52 pm
“Hillary has not conceded & I do not think she should. However I do echo Hillarys speech ‘I would like all of us to take a moment to recognize him and his supporters for all they have accomplished’”
Yes, I agree Gore should have run in 2004. You are right on that.
ESJ: a lot of wishful thinking on your part, but hey, if Obama did implode in the next few months, they can always turn to Edwards instead, now he’d destroy McCain in an election and turn a few Southern states blue too.
Ron @ 374,
Conession duely noted, I’ll stop baiting you (for a while at least).
Gore has stayed very quiet, I guess he’ll make his big speech at the convention.
366
Edward StJohn Says:
http://www.stoptheaclu.com/archives/2008/06/03/bob-beckel-says-shoe-will-drop-on-obama-tomorrow/
What a sad sad lot. I suspect Obama will not make it and
the US will continue it’s spiral into oblivion. Sad really; buts that is the way it goes, empires rise, empires fall.
Edwards is just a haircut and an empty suit (+ a rich lawyers ego) after all he couldnt even win his home state primary.
Bet he wishes hed stayed in though – with a big enough swag of delegates he could have brokered the convention.
321
Andrew
Health was her big failure, so maybe it’s enough of a reward in which she can redeem herself, get the proverbial second chance?
But the way she was talking, about the 18 million (by whose count?) her voted for her not being ‘disrespected’ (so you’re entitled to respect because you cast a vote for the the runner up??????), she’s clearly angling for a bit more.
I’ve heard all the arguments in favour of her being on the ticket, but jesuuuz, she’s not endeared herself to this little brown duck, and many more I suspect.
Oy my God I will have to agree with ESJ. He is nothing more than a pretty face who failed to help Kerry in the south
Obama has won by regenerating support the Democratic Party as the voice for change in America. This is his pitch. He both embodies and heralds change. He cannot be beaten on this issue.
By contrast, Hillary has commanded a lot of loyal support from the poorer, less-well educated and older voters. She also has a strong following amongst females – the mainstay of democratic support. In some ways, it is convenient to describe these voters as conservative and traditional. But this misses the point. These voters also have a stake in change.
The question is what these people will do when their champ – Hillary – is no longer a candidate. It defies credulity to think that the legions of democratic voting women are going to flee to the wife-cussing, curmudgeonly McCain.
Likewise, the issues that must concern Hillary’s supporters – health care, the cost of education, the availability of jobs – are not McCain’s territory. These are substantive issues. Hillary ran on them and nearly won on them. But she does not own them. Obama can win support from these echelons by appealing to them on the issues and by linking them to his appeal for a new America.
He doesn’t need Hillary to do this. In lots of ways, he has to present himself as a leader who has freedom of thought and action. In his rhetoric, Obama places himself in debt to the people of America – he gives them the credit for his success. Symbolically, by choosing Hillary as running mate, he could be saying that he and his supporters lack the strength to win and accomplish change: that he needs a Clinton backing him up. I think it would be a terrible mistake, both for his campaign and his presidency. He stands for more than this. He has to and he does and he will.
318
jaundiced view Says:
June 4th, 2008 at 10:06 pm
ESJ- you still can’t get yourself up for a … prediction, can you.
…he’s only really good for insults and snide little stupidities. Predictions require a bit more commitment.
I’m happy to collect my winnings however! LOL
KR: She’s angling for a job (is the conventional wisdom). But the cynic in me wonders how important a certain candidate’s debt is.
WorktoRule
I congratulated nut did not concede as Hillary has not. I said “However I do echo Hillarys speech ‘I would like all of us to take a moment to recognize him and his supporters for all they have accomplished”
whether Hillary decides to fight to the Convention based on her ‘electability’ argument & popular vote win (which the Amigos have argued todate) or whether she thinks the now 60 days gap will lead to too much Party pressure with the Party suggisting 60 days of nothing happening shows the party is still determining its Nominee & if so what she wants , is presumably what she is considering till Tuesday
What I can say as a political reality Obama faced is Hillary has 17.5 million votes , alot hard core.If Hillary publicly infers she wants the VP , Obama will be forced to give it to her or lose the election for sure. Hillary could have done that done if she chose Obama can now if he choses try to pre empt her by nominating a VP but until he does Hillary can have the VP if she choses Thats because on pledged delegatesfrom Primarys she won 48.1% of the delegats to Obama 51.9% and won the poular vote on actual audited votes cast so he has the total whip hand on VP and if the roles were reversed Obama would , Polies are good at counting vote numbers if nothing elese
Intrade:
Dem Vp
Clinton drifts 5points from 30 to 25 today
M.Warner firms 5 points from 5 to 10 today.
RB
Her debt is her No.1 priority. HER 18 million voters rank about 28th on her list of priorities.
385
Robert Bollard
Yes, I’ve always thought if she was offered the choice she’d take the money and run!
Cynical? You and me both, it seems!
I have to agree with others about John Edwards. Dud politician.
Has good and decent ideals and policies but he really is an empty suit with a haircut.
Good contest between him and Biden for most insincere looking.
I had to have a laugh at the talking head on Fox News.
She was saying how Obama rang Hillary last night just after midnight but only got her voicemail.
Talking head said he should have waited till 3am to call her on her red phone.
Relatively recently (ie; in the last 5 years) I read Mailer on the ‘68 nominating conventions. The Republicans in Miama were pretty straightforward, with Rockerfeller losing to Nixon, with Reagan making a good showing (and we know what happened to him 12 years later). The interesting thing was about Hubert Humphrey (”Dump the Hump”) and the Democratic nomination – the angst and indeed hatred of the Eugene McCarthy supporters towards Humphrey and the party strongmen – Chicago Mayor Daley and co) – but Mailer nailed it when he said that McCarthy would have been a great Republican, and Rockerfeller a great Democrat, but they were just in the wrong parties at the wrong time.
But the real problem was that the Rockerfeller supporters still wanted a Republican president, but the McCarthy supporters wanted some one else. Yes, I know that there was George Wallace – and if you look at the vote Wallace was a divisive 3rd party spoiler. It was a “house divided”, albeit for vastly different reasons (factor in the shift in over race, Vietnam etc). And then came the McGovern Commision, which recommended changes to the selection process that took power from the hands of Democratic Party powerbrokers like Daley and handed it to voters – caucuses and primary’s. Daley and co withheld their support and we see the disaster of 1972 for the Democrats.
Will 2008 be a mirror of 1968 or 1972. Will Obama be scorned by the Clinton supporters allowing a weak President McCain through, or will they become the spoiler? Or will they back their party’s nominee and create a break from the past?
Or am I deluded, the Republicans will win, and the Democratic Party are really just the party of Opposition who only gain power when the party born to rule are just too corrupt and failure-ridden (eg; Carter in 1976)?
Make that “Republicans in Miami” – coz I’ve no idea where “Miama” is…
Who will blink first?
‘But she did not on Tuesday night merely try to make a case for herself as a good vice-presidential candidate. She held a rhetorical knife to Obama’s throat and said, in not so many words: I’m still calling some shots, buddy. You offer me the vice-presidency, or I walk away. But she has also forced Obama into a situation whereby if he chooses her now, he looks weak. So that’s the choice she is hoping to impose on the nominee: don’t choose me, and Bill and I will subtly work to see that you lose; choose me, and look like a weakling who can’t lead the party without the Clintons after all. Now that’s putting the interests of the party first, isn’t it?’
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/michael_tomasky/2008/06/no_shame_no_gain.html
‘(5) There will be lots of pressure on Obama to change his mind, though.
Unquestionably. And since we’re in the moment, a lot of it is to be expected. You can be sure that Obama will do nothing rash, and that whatever he decides, he’s going to take lots of time. If the pressure on him does not abate and if the support of a good chunk of the 17 million Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton does not migrate to him by the middle of July, then Obama might find himself in a quandary.
(6) So basically, the answer to the original question is: if Obama can coalesce the Democratic Party before he needs to pick a vice president, there’s almost no chance that he will pick Hillary Clinton.
That’s pretty much it, yes.’
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/06/questions_to_ask_about_the_uni.php
Pelosi Says The Dem Primary Is Over, Declares Obama The “Nominee”
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/pelosi_says_the_dem_primary_is.php
In the meantime, in response to questions about Clinton’s speech, Obama responded with some interesting words…
Asked whether Clinton had given him any indication that she’d be dropping out of the race, Obama said:
You got to love that last line!
And on another front 15 supers have moved to Obama so far today. There are still 281 supers (about 34%) hanging on to Clinton and another 130 odd (16%) undecided compared to 410 for Obama (just under 50%).
catrina, i miss the sound of your one woman yapping at the wee hours. Maybe you can do a time trial as each minute passes by. many thanks.
Hillary’s supporters tell her to STFU about her 18 million ‘hard working white Americans’. Time to go 4am party guest:
Ed Rendell:
Charlie Rangel:
James Clyburn:
Toy Boys at 394
Funny really – haven’t missed you at all.
Must be a quality thing.
Morning all,
I’m not sure Hillary is interested in unifying the Party, Pancho. Divide and conquer.
There really was no justifiable reason for her not to concede yesterday. This was turning the knife, and that’s all it was.
Ferny Grover at 397
I figure Hillary’s between a rock and a hard place.
I’m guessing she’s going to do the right thing – and reasonably quickly.
Pancho, if Hillary deserved the VP slot, which she doesnt, her refusal to concede last night and the tactics you report should disquaify her anyway. If Obama chooses her, it will spoil his image
I agree with Possum’s analysis that Hillary as VP is the most sensible option for the Democrats if they want to make sure they win POTUS. (Although I disagree with his character assessment of Clinton).
While I understand the arguments about delegate counts etc., 18 million votes is a genuine source of legitmacy for any candidate and to contemplate blowing them off as losers is arrogance of the highest order.
Obama has not campaigned well in recent months and the reality is that he had many chances to take the nomination outright but failed to do so. That he has won on super delegate pledges means that ultimately he can be portrayed as the machine candidate. These SD votes won’t come cheap. So much for the new politics!
As said previously Hillary has the keys to the voters that Obama can’t reach at the moment. I think team Obama faces the dillemma that do they press ahead without Clinton’s support and hope to squeeze through or do they embrace her and bring her and her supporters on board for a smashing victory.
I would say that Hillary still has other options from running a spoiling campaign, staying in the race just to wait and see what happens beween now and August, to endorsing McCain and even running as an Independant. If any of these were to occur, they would no doubt damage the campaign of Obama and certainly cause distraction.
Obama has many faults including lack of experience, foreign policy, poor judgement, race and the Liberal disconnect with working class Americans and Hispanics. Hillary can help him on all these.
So now we will find out if Obama really wants to win. In the Australian experience we’ve had front runners or anointed politicians like Peacock, Beazley and Costello all of whom failed to achieve the highest job because of a perceived lack of desire (amongst other things) to do waht is necessary to win.
Over to you Mr. Obama.
GG at 400
Welcome back – we’ve been worried about you!
Wed June 4: Woe is the courter on a “dynastically significant” first date when from the moment of eyefall he knows things just aren’t gonna work out no matter how much nice he makes.
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/patoliphant;_ylt=As1zl6ku7vqVabVPkkvdtjXd.sgF
having slept on the VP issue overnight (checked under the bed for a stray Bill first) I am with dyno and blindoptimist – forget Hillary as VP.
Obama does not need her as most of those supporters would rather chew their arm off that see teh Repugs get back in. They are disappointed but they’ll get over it.
I agree it sends the message that she is the defacto leader – Obama needs her ‘experience’ because he isn’t up to the job. Bollocks.
She is incapable of honestly supporting anything other than her own ambition, proved by her narcisstic speech yesterday. She believes she is the rightful POTUS, and so she will never truly support him .
Hey Grinch!
GG – your argument that Hillary can mount a case which will require serious consideration by Obama (and the party) is well made. But I would make a couple of other points about your post.
First, either victor would have needed to win ‘on super delegate pledges’ as you put it, being such a close race. We shouldn’t forget that along with a majority of SDs (now) Obama has also won a majority of PDs.
Second, I agree that running spoiler is something she would be considering, but she can’t do this overtly (and running independent is out) as she would be trashing the same machine she will need in 4 years time if this is her strategy.
Pancho at 405
And the independent options is already out of scope – it already too late to mount an effective deployment (admin, registration, etc., etc.).
BTW – good to the that the Party of the Democrats is swinging behind the new leader.
https://www.democrats.org/
Hillary to formally concede on Friday: according to American ABC News!
That was my projection!!
I believe Hilary has succesfully snookered the hopemaster.
If she is on the ticket he will look weak, if she isnt on the ticket he will look divisive. Either way Hilary wins – one she runs for VP and has a co-presidency or tri-presidency if they win OR the hopemaster dooms his campaign by rejecting her, she plays the loyal victim of the hopemaster and has an undisputed crack at 2012.
Uncle Eddy
I think you underestimate the guy.
But it wouldn’t be the first time you got projections arse about face.
Catrina what’s this ? Your up and about late morning, normally expect to hear from you at 2am
Oh Eddy, she lost presendential nomination race and now you are claiming it’s really a victory for her – she’s alot more wily and cunning than I gave her credit for. You really are having a sook aren’t you
I reckon there would be a few more who think like this
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hilary-rosen/i-am-not-a-bargaining-chi_b_105133.html
ESJ – yep, she snookered him! It was her cunning plan to lose all along so he would be in a…predicament. (insert evil Clinton laugh here).
Come on man, you can stir better then that.
Uncle Eddy
Don’t feel bad about it – I know some people can’t cope with late nights.
It’s a stamina thing.
ESJ- a victory for Hillary????
You lot are f@#king amazing!!
Yeah catrina a late night with you is not on my agenda I can assure you.
Progressive at 408
More reporting on a Friday concession from the NYTs.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/06/04/clinton-is-moving-toward-suspending-campaign-and-endorsing-obama/
Pancho Left,
Its a pyrhhic victory, the hopemaster usurped the natural order and he will have to suffer the consequences.
“Moving toward suspending campaign”??? FFS, SHE’S LOST. Unbelievable
Headline on Yahoo page: Clinton refuses to concede defeat. Obama’s victory makes way for a Hillary headline. In her usual way. Hillary has made it all about her
http://au.news.yahoo.com/080603/2/174k3.html?f=mv
Uncle Eddy at 418
That’s good news Eddy.
After all – that’s one less thing you mother won’t have to feel ashamed about.
We’ll see ESJ. While I know you are ‘reserving your right’ to try to save face like you did with your Howard victory prediction, by switching to Obama mid September, I’ll just keep pointing out your wonderful predictive record: Howard, Hillary, and now (by the looks of 420) McCain. Perhaps you should put that Nostradamus down and take a look at the political landscape instead.
The problem here for Hillary is that every day she hangs on and sees more defections, publicly or otherwise, she loses more bargaining chips, and looks like more of an ass.
Catrina 423 you are right my mother generally disapproves of schlappers.
Pancho Left – I always get it right in my predictions to be honest.
Hi all. Well, Jimmy Carter has warned Obama about choosing Hillary as his VP:
“If you take that 50 per cent who just don’t want to vote for Clinton and add it to whatever element there might be who don’t think Obama is white enough or old enough or experienced enough or because he’s got a middle name that sounds Arab, you could have the worst of both worlds,” he said.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/dont-pick-hillary-says-carter-20080605-2m2m.html
I agree. While I would accept Hillary as VP, I think that putting them both together would actually weaken Obama. It would diffuse his “new politics” message. And everyone knows how ambitious Hillary is, so it would only raise questions about who would be the REAL president. It might also give the impression that Obama is only doing it to get Hillary’s voter support, and therefore lacks the confidence or ability to attract this support himself.
I’m not saying it would be a disaster. It might work. But I think it would be a HUGE risk.
The best scenario would be for Hillary to receive a cabinet position and for Obama to choose a running mate who COMPLEMENTS him. Hillary does not complement Obama. She represents nearly everything Obama is fighting against.
Wed June 4:
http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=AmKxweD8GUGiJaUIHuRmZUhN_b4F
The bluff was finally called. But I wonder if there’ll be any other tantrums on the way out?
“Clinton delivered something approaching a victory speech Tuesday night, just minutes after the media reported that Senator Barack Obama had clinched the nomination with a majority of the pledged delegates. But reality began to sink in Wednesday, as party leaders, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, declared Obama “the nominee” and close supporters like Harlem Rep. Charles Rangel lost patience with her delays.
By the afternoon, as she made plans to end her campaign’s operations, a question of whether she would drop out and endorse Obama was rapidly turning into matters of choreography and psychology, questions of what form the inevitable would take.
Clinton had convened a conference call with congressional supporters Wednesday to plead for time. Instead, a Clinton backer said, her supporters laid down the law: Time had run out , and she needed to leave the race this week.”
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0608/ABC_Clinton_to_drop_out_Friday.html
I am back for the “I told you so” post
Not surprising to see that the Green Grinch (and ESJ) is furiously backtracking from earlier predictions.
Its always curious to see the delusional trying to spin their way out of their previous moronic assertions and coming up with even more ludicrous suggestions and sniping to attempt to justify their previous idiocy.
Surprisingly enough, just as predicted over 2 months ago, Hillary had no chance to catch up in pledged delegates due to her poor campaigning, and as a consequence the superdelegates pushed Obama over the line.
The primaries also closely tracked the predictions made over 2 months ago.
Watch the Clinton supporters move quickly from denial to bargaining now.
Hillary as usual showed her lack of grace and should not be VP.
Nobody who runs a campaign as intellectually dishonest as Hillary should be on the Obama ticket, as this will potentially lose him more voters then he will gain.
I still believe that Obama (regardless if Hillary is on the ticket) will win the general election as the Republicans are irreparably damaged due to the flawed Bush legacy.
Hillary is now planning to drop out on Friday. Did anyone else beat my previous prediction?
And finally:
Congratulations Barack Obama for overcoming the odds to become the first black American democratic nominee.
He is an inspired choice that will hopefully be able to repair the damage from the worst US president ever.
ESJ – the sookmaster @426, didn’t you say Howard would be returned in Bennelong?
429 and 430
Voices of reason!
BTW – is there really anyone here who truly believes that HRC would be the best option for VP? I mean – it just doesn’t make sense.
certainly the Guardian guy doesn’t…
. “Once again, it’s all about Hillary Clinton, who delivered the most abrasive, self-absorbed, selfish, delusional, emasculating and extortionate political speech I’ve heard in a long time. And I’ve left out some adjectives, just to be polite.”
maybe she did everyone a favour by showing her true colours once and for all. She has given Obama the perfect out.
Well the VP question is going to hang out there for a while.
I notice that on intrade there is a list of a dozen or so candidates and the front runner is still “someone else”, followed by Clinton, then Webb.
I do Cat – if the goal is to win the absolute maximum number of ECVs, districts and Senate races.
WorkToRule at 434
Do you have a url for the intrade Obama VP candidates?
Possum at 435
Up side is that it brings on board the Hillary fringe lunatics.
Downside is that is tarnishes the Obama brand and creates risk in both the general and later during a Presidency.
How are you rationalizing the balance?
Catrina @ 432
“is there really anyone here who truly believes that HRC would be the best option for VP?”
I doubt Clinton is the best choice, but I think he can win with Clinton as VP and could lose if Clinton decides to undermine him.
My hope is that the Obama camp can bring her onside by offering SoH.
The risk with Clinton as VP is that is gives Repub two negative attack lines – whereas a well picked VP could neutralise them.
I don’t really think this is the right time to take the temperature of a Clinton VP push. Her supporters are crushed, she is playing odd games, and Obama’s win hasn’t really settled yet. I agree she has won a huge number of votes, and although Obama has had this wrapped up for sometime, it has been all but a 50/50 race.
But there is no way that swathes of Clinton’s women supporters will vote for
McCain or stay home when McCain is pitted against Obama. The clowns that could fly from their comfortable pads in CA or NY to racebait at the R&B meeting aside, these women are Democrats who do not want to vote for a warmonger who will install judges to overturn Roe. And there is no way that the ‘hard working Americans’ of the Appalacias, who don’t wanna vote for a ‘boy’ will do so just because the duckhunter is on the ticket.
If the first rule of VP choice is ‘don’t let them f*ck you up’, then Clinton – in spite of her support in the primaries – remains a very risky choice.
I think that as some of the divisive dynamic fades away over the next month or so, we’ll really be able to see if Clinton offers something by being on the ticket (either by cancelling negatives, or positively campaigning) when we see a bit more polling, and more of McCain. One thing I is certain – her schmucks will not be able to bully her a spot, no matter how many people Bill pisses off.
Cat,
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/
look under Politics – 2008 US elections – 2008 Democrat VP Nom
We’ve been missing the real issue! This comment was posted on Ben Smith’s blog by someone called “I Love Hillary”:
Satan brought forth the Beast from the sea. The Beast was given power, his throne and great authority by Satan. The whole world was astonished and followed the Beast. Men worshiped Satan. The Beast was given a mouth to utter proud and vain words. The Beast blasphemes God and slanders His name, His church and even those who had died and live in Heaven. The Beast was given power to make war against Christians and to conquer them. The Beast was given authority over every tribe, people, language and nation. All inhabitants of the earth will worship the Beast, except for whose names are written in the Book of Life. Satan called forth another beast, which did rise out of the Earth. It is the False Prophet. ? The False Prophet has two horns like a lamb, but looks like a man. ? He speaks like Satan speaks. ? He exercises all the authority of the Beast and on the Beast?s behalf. ? He will make inhabitants of the Earth worship the Beast. ? He performs great and miraculous signs, even causing fire to come down from Heaven to Earth in full view of men through powers given to him from the Beast. ? He deceives the inhabitants of the Earth. ? He orders men to set up an image in honor of the Beast. ? He is given power from Satan to give breath to the image of the Beast, so that the image could speak. ? He will kill all the inhabitants of the Earth who refused to worship the image of the Beast. ? He forces everyone, small and great, rich and poor, free and slave, to receive a mark on his right hand or on his forehead, so that no one could buy or sell unless he had the mark, which is the name or the number of the name of the Beast. ? The number of the Beast is 666, for it is man’s number. The Beast exercised his authority for forty-two months. The Beast and the False Prophet will make war against Jesus Christ, but Christ will overcome them because he is Lord of lords and King of kings; and with Him will be His called, chosen and faithful followers. The Beast is here on Earth today waiting for Satan to conceive his False Prophet so the Biblical prophesy can be fulfilled. It is what Satan desires most, except in Satan?s apocalypse the Beast is victorious and the Earth will be ravaged eternally. We are given warnings of the False Prophet and he must be stopped in our lifetime. Each generation of the Earth is challenged and tempted by Satan. Do not yield to this temptation. Stop Obama before it is too late.
Pancho at 439
I agree. I see multiple negatives in the Hillary VP scenario and negatives that can be largely eliminated by cabinet roles around Health. I also think Obama is following the direction you just mentioned – let is cool down and during which time Hillary’s oxygen will get reduced and the issue will not have the ‘pressing urgency of now’.
“close advisers to Sen. Obama signaled an Obama-Clinton ticket was highly unlikely. People in both camps cited what several called “a deal-breaker” — Bill Clinton may balk at releasing records of his business dealings and big donors to his presidential library.”
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121262109484746703.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Poss,
Hillary would have to be a ‘loose cannon’ – I just can’t see how it would work.
She has shown herself to be vainglorious and self-absorbed.
She can’t control herself, so I can’t see Obama controlling her.
Big liability, it seems to me…
It’s pantomime time: T-Mac, Hillary’s architect-of-the-month and brain du jour (R.I.P. Patti Solis Doyle) talks turkey to Jon Stewart. Gobble gobble.
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/20080604_t_mac_is_pumped_up/
Possum’s argument is a good one. I see McCain as a very weak candidate, who has been able to get by for the last few months because of the Democratic battle.
His public speaking skills are poor… if it turns into a battle with speeches and debates, he is going to get creamed. Just look at what Huckabee was doing to him in the Republican debates. His best chance is turning to the attack dogs and 527 groups to try and attack Obama’s personality. Whether this will work after 8 years of Rovian tactics and GWB is another matter entirely. I think after a few months of the general election contest we will begin to see Obama break away from McCain in most of the purple states and make a contest in some of the slight Republican states (NC, MS maybe). So in my opinion, I think Obama will win, but it won’t be a huge record-breaking map-shifting win.
Now, if he got Hillary on board as a VP candidate, he could use her to shore up Appalachia. West Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania and possibly even Florida would become good bets. This would open Obama up and allow him to attack in NC, MS as well as a swag of other Republican states. Alaska, Arkansas, Virginia, Indiana, the Dakotas and Montana could all be brought into play. Even if Obama were not to win in most of those states, by pushing McCain back and making him play defence (exactly like the Libs were forced to here last year) you could be looking at a huge Democrat win.
If McCain slipped up for a second in his defence of those states, or had a meltdown (possibilities for a guy who is rumoured to have a fierce temper) you could be looking at a massive re-shaping of the electoral landscape in the US.
So what I’m beginning to think is that if Obama wants a slight win, he should not pick HRC as running mate. If he wants to seriously attack the Republican base and re-shape the electoral landscape, I’m beginning to think she may be the best option.
Oh no, according to ESJ, :”Either way Hilary wins” Damn! I thought Obama had won…
Asanque, a great wrap-up
I actually think Hillary burnt some valuable bridges to the VP spot. She gave the Repugs a lot of ammunition for attacking Obama, especially her comments about McCain being better suited to be president than Obama.
Running ads on this (which the Repugs will surely do) would have greater effect if she is running as VP and therefore taking a big role in the campaign because it raises questions about the VPs faith in the President, the ability for the VP and President to work together, etc.
On another point, Hillary is actually unpopular outside the Democrat voter circle. Obama has consistently done better with independents. What you lose from the loony fringes of Hillary’s support base, Obama gains with independents. But I’m not so sure if they would put as much faith in Obama if Hillary is his running mate.
Cat at 437- If Hillary was made Veep and framed by the entire Obama campaign over and over and over again as the person that will bring in Universal Healthcare – perhaps even by saying she’ll not only be Veep but also Secretary of Health, I think that any damage that Clinton would do to Obamas brand of change politics could be overcome.
Universal Healthcare is the biggest change issue around, Clinton has always been at the forefront of it and importantly it’s already synonymous with her in the minds of the politically active (i.e. voters). It’s easy to bullshit people into believing something if they already partly believe it anyway – so it wouldnt be that great a step to frame Clinton as a change politics representative via the universal healthcare push.
Look at the way Howard framed himself as a conviction politician successfully – even though it was 95% bullshit and he’d change his mind on a dime if there was something in it for him, the 5% nugget of truth allowed the 100% framing to take place.
Black can be made white in the minds of voters as long as you have a realistic vector to carry the message – and universal healthcare is a pretty good vector if the message you’re trying to deliver is “change”.
There’ll be problems around the fringes, especially with Obama attacking McCain as a beltway stooge while havining CLinton on the ticket – but a couple of deliberate story plants in the media where it’s leaked that she told overbearing lobbyist/donors to piss off and stop trying to buy influence on Obamas platform would have a pretty powerful effect.
Americans accept that their politicians flip flop. The flip only becomes a problem for a candidate if the voters disagree on the position that candidate is flopping to.
The biggest problem that comes with Clinton is Bill, and the shit that he brings with him, especially over his presidential library donations and things he did after he left the Whitehouse. The stuff that the Clintons did in the whitehouse has all been done to death already – if the Repubs run with that, it just reinforces the differences between the type of politics Obama would be running with compared to the grubby republican 1990s redux that McCain would be running with, and that would also make him look more like a Republican, the very thing he’s trying hard not to make himself look like (because generic Republicans are getting smashed by Generic Democrats on votes as a general branding issue).
If McCain starts getting identified as a Republican, he’ll lose 10 points in the polls.
It’s a big risk – but the benefits are enormous, a greater potential victory in terms of ECVs, and with that comes larger district wins and possibly even 60 Senate seats if the campaign runs well.
You can use Hillary to target the Apppalachian white vote, older women, working class voters (where universal healthcare plays extremely well) and Florida, use Obama to mobilise the black, educated and youth vote and combined the two could drown the Republicans in a massive flood of turnout, bringing States into play that the Dems 12 months ago would never have dreamed of. Especially if McCain chooses Romney as Veep because a large amount of the evangelicals will stay home.
It’s risky, but the rewards are worth thinking about.
great point about the ads Noocat. How would it look to have ads from the VP candidate attacking their running mate?? Make no mistake the repugs would rehash these and milk them for all they’re worth
Pancho @ 439, agree. Who will blink first is the game now; Fri Sat over? Sort of.
Plus Carter & Pelosi…
‘She held a rhetorical knife to Obama’s throat and said, in not so many words: I’m still calling some shots, buddy. You offer me the vice-presidency, or I walk away. But she has also forced Obama into a situation whereby if he chooses her now, he looks weak. So that’s the choice she is hoping to impose on the nominee: don’t choose me, and Bill and I will subtly work to see that you lose; choose me, and look like a weakling who can’t lead the party without the Clintons after all. Now that’s putting the interests of the party first, isn’t it?’
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/michael_tomasky/2008/06/no_shame_no_gain.html
‘You can be sure that Obama will do nothing rash, and that whatever he decides, he’s going to take lots of time. If the pressure on him does not abate and if the support of a good chunk of the 17 million Democrats who voted for Hillary Clinton does not migrate to him by the middle of July, then Obama might find himself in a quandary.
(6) So basically, the answ