Today’s Fairfax broadsheets bring us the latest monthly ACNielsen survey of federal voting intention, showing Labor’s two-party lead narrowing slightly from 57-43 to 56-44. It also finds Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader by 37 per cent of respondents against 29 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull and 19 per cent for Brendan Nelson, and gives the government generally poor ratings for its handling of petrol prices despite a Labor lead of 38 per cent to 34 per cent as the party best able to handle the issue.
Another federal poll which earlier escaped notice was last Monday’s Westpoll survey of 400 Western Australian voters. It showed Labor with a two-party lead in the state of 53-47, which can be read as good news for the government if compared with the 2007 election result (53.3-46.7 in the Coalition’s favour), or bad news if compared with the April Westpoll (63-37 to Labor). It too found Peter Costello favoured as Liberal leader, with 21 per cent support, against 18 per cent for both Malcolm Turnbull and local hero Julie Bishop and just 10 per cent for Brendan Nelson. We will presumably be hearing from Newspoll this evening.
132 Comments
The jump out number is the Costello 37% as Preferred Opposition Leader. Current state of play with Cossie seems to be that he hasn’t been able to secure the sort of paying position in Australia that he would like and is not keen on moving O/s. Therefore, all that’s left is Australian politics. If true and he is staying, then Brendan is in for some interesting times in the near future.
Are the full results/table available anywhere? Curious (of course!) about the full figures, esp if any rural/city or age breakdown.
That means that 63% of voters DON”T want Cossie as leader of the Libs. Doesn’t sound so good now does it?
Again the Opposition has failed to land a glove on the Government in Question Time. Hockey is carrying on like a pork chop (as is becoming usual).
I only caught bits of QT today but Julia, Tanner and even Ferguson were lecturing the “opposition” , and there was almost total silence!
A bit subdued on ‘tother side?
On the verge of losing any relevancy will do that to you LOL
Full ACNielsen table without petrol questions at http://enrol.com.au/mumblestuff/pdfs/federal/Nielsenfedtablejune08.pdf
Now Julie Bishop is moving a motion to allow a motion to be put to call Belinda Neale to front the House asap to explain her actions. Albo has just moved to silence her – division called. This will take some time to sort out.
BTW is was a brilliant cartoon of Neale by Bill Leak today. http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/opinion/cartoons/
Gravity, fuel prices, MSM campaigning, Nelson looking like an opposition – who knows the reason for the decline. Only goes to confuse the LNP as to what to do with Nelson and Turnbull.
I can only cringe at the thought of the mess Turnbull and Nelson would make of the economy if they were in charge. Nelson blown around by the opinion of the last hour while Turnbull to lazy to find out the real facts.
I suspect it has been the sustained campaign of the MSM including the ABC over months trying to undermine the Govt.
To be honest I suspect just a natural fall. It isn’t huge and the government couldn’t hold onto those lofty figures forever, although these aren’t exactly low figures are they?
Now hang on…
In this poll, 78% of respondents believe the government should “act” on fuel prices.
While in a newspoll taken only 2 weeks ago, nearly 50% of respondents believed there was nothing either party could do about it anyway.
http://enrol.com.au/mumblestuff/pdfs/20080602newspollpetrol.pdf
So what’s the story? People have changed their minds suddenly? Or was there a slightly different phrasing, or framing of context in the Nielsen poll?
All the apparent declines in Labor’s PPM, Approval, 1st Pref and 2PP are within the MOE. They could be real, but there’s been no dramatic change since the last ACNielsen at all.
“78% of respondents believe the government should “act” on fuel prices.” They might just as well ask “Do you want the government to supplement your income?” You’d get the same result although most would see it as unworkable and unaffordable.
By Christmas 2008, I reckon Jim Lloyd will be the Member for Robertson again.
1 Honest – Please explain Jim how that will happen?
I know I shouldn’t feed these people.
What are you on?
It will happen because the Robertson by-election will result in a 27.92% swing against Labor.
What bi -election Jim. Neal would have to resign. She won’t.
99.73% of people who call themselves Honest John aren’t.
Since the enactment of the Parliamentary Privileges Act neither House has had the power to expel a Member from its membership.
So Neal would have to resign.
The Beattie haters will be livid.
http://news.theage.com.au/national/watchdog-dismisses-beattierose-claims-20080616-2rew.html
No, no, Honest John, I think you’re wrong, I’m quite sure that by 7pm next thursday the seat of Robertson will be taken over in an armed uprising by Humphrey B Bear as part of his Glen Milne masterminded campaign to institute a national ‘no trousers’ policy.
A little experiement in picking the quality media outlet. One of these headlines belong to news.com.au and the other belongs to ABC Online.
1) IR plan: will it work for you?
2) Rudd refuses to guarantee workers won’t be worse off
The two stories.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/16/2276115.htm
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,23870609-5012424,00.html
80% of Australians want a tax cut on petrol a new poll reveals.
In other news, 90% of Australians want to pay no income taxes, 85% would prefer not to pay GST on anything and 98% would agree to recieve a free LCD television from the government.
As in the USA as in Australia..
http://www.nydailynews.com/opinions/2008/06/15/2008-06-15_youtube_has_michelle_obamas_critics_caug.html
Unfortunately here there are few counter voices to set the record straight. Seem that commentator gives the internet some level of importance.
Thanks Ad Astra (what, no Per Ardua?)
“Yesterday the Prime Minister again repeatedly refused to give Australian workers a guarantee that they will not be worse off.”
That was Honest John, the difference was that he knew many worker would be worse off.
Chris Pyne wants to see if Neal has breached section 139 of the criminal code:
A Commonwealth public official is guilty of an offence if:
(a) the official makes an unwarranted demand with menaces of another person; and
(b) the demand or the menaces are directly or indirectly related to:
(i) the official’s capacity as a Commonwealth public official; or
(ii) any influence the official has in the official’s capacity as a Commonwealth public official; and
(c) the official does so with the intention of:
(i) obtaining a gain; or
(ii) causing a loss; or
(iii) influencing another Commonwealth public official in the exercise of the other official’s duties as a Commonwealth public official.
I think he has buckleys.
Everyone’s missing the REAL headline- Nelson goes from FOURTH to THIRD as preferred opposition leader!!!
The honeymoon is over with this poll. By this I mean 56-44 is a more normal looking set of numbers. I don’t expect to see many more 60-40’s because the electorate has a natural split of 40 – 40 – 20 (that is 40 ALP, 40 NLP and 20 swinging). It will be interesting to see if tonights Newspoll confirms the result.
As for Binge Drinker after 4 beers, this kind of nonsense is likely to alienate many people. The vast majority of the adult population drinks alcohol and to suggest that such a moderate amounts equals “binge drinking” is like calling those people nasty names. And as the old saying goes, ‘Sticks and stones will break bones, but words will lose you votes”.
Rudd should be very careful how he deals with this as it could lead to a world of pain. Every single member of the government will be having their drinks counted whenever they are out. You can see what will be on the front page of every tabloid the moment a minister has a fifth beer.
Turning worm, whilst I get your point, I wouldnt go so far as calling news.com.au a quality outlet. But there’s no doubt ABC is toally feral
Reuters is reporting this as a massive blow for the Rudd government.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idUKSYD17946320080616
OMG!
Stewart J, Ad astra is derived from ’sic itur ad astra’ – my old school motto.
The NHMRC has come out with a report saying that more than 4 standard drinks a day is not good for your health. This report was commissioned by Tony Abbott.
So it reports and its the Govt. trying to make 4 middies binge drinking. Give me a break.
Has Crosby-Textor identified the Bundy demographic?
35 – Yes, they could call it something else; for example “potential harmful drinking”. But calling it “Binge drinking” is like comparing Jaywalking with armed robbery.
No sweat @ 34.
BSF
Has anyone but the opposition called this “binge drinking”?
It is nuts to equate four drinks with binge drinking. In peoples minds binge drinking is going out and getting blotto. They need to work on their definitions to make sure they and the public understand what they are talking about.
That does not matter. It is the message which is making the way to the public. The government could easily have said we are not going to declare four drinks binge drinking yesterday and knocked the story on the head. It is called media management, and for all the “spin masters” that the government is supposed to contain they didn’t do a very good job of spinning this story.
Thanks for the link Ad astra at #6
Has anyone else noticed that in the state by state breakdown, Kevin Rein’s lowest approval rating is QLD?
I see its still in the 60s, but why the lowest in his home state? the footnote on MOE helps……
NSW Power privatisation bills pulled for this session of parliament at least due to lack of numbers in both houses.
Squiggle
Labor only got 50.44% of the vote in Qld at the last election. So 60% approval should be sending shivers down the spine of Lib members in SE Qld.
Why would any sane person expect facts and reality to get in the way of an antiCoalition news bite
Phillip Coorey, writing today in the SMH says “…Labor’s two-party-preferred tally of 56 per cent to 44 per cent is virtually unchanged since the previous poll.” (It’s certainly within the MOE.) He also quotes John Stirton of ACNielsen as saying: “Nelson’s leadership has stabilised at relatively low levels.” and “… the result was worrying for Dr Nelson because he was less popular than Mr Costello and Mr Turnbull when the poll last canvassed preferred Coalition leaders, in December 2006. He hasn’t managed to change perceptions in the six months he’s been in the leadership.” http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/costellos-steady-hold-on-the-lead/2008/06/15/1213468240455.html
How much joy can the Coalition and Brendan Nelson squeeze out of that?
Anyway, let’s reserve judgement until this weeks Newspoll comes out.
TV on in background while peeling the spuds for dinner around 4.15. Show on was It’s Academic. Question- true of false- John Howard’s real name is Englebert Humperdink? LOL
Anyone care to venture some numbers on Newspoll? How about, oh, umm, 56/44, just for the hell of it, and Shanners unable to restrain himself about the voters’ post-coital disappointment, due to the lack of $ available to drive to the nearest outlet for Alcopops to enjoy said moment. I do recommend The Piping Shrike’s take on the Della Bosca and Neal situation for an interesting perspective.
Ad Astra – ah, Virgilian!
Vera – Did the kids get it right?
Harry SO @ 47- Where is Piping Shrike’s take?
Blair S
they all laughed first then said ‘false’ lol
Found it, Harry SO. Ta
41 Mr Squiggle – if that’s all you can get your political jollies on then you’re more desperate than I thought.
No mention that. depite threats. the Budget was passed.
I wonder if they did pass the Budget, knowing full well that the Libs/Nats would lose control of the Senate by the end of the Month ?
Check out the % increases in rates from the Liberal Brisbane City Council, breaking a promise in the recent campaign that increases in rates would be in single figures. No wonder inflation is galloping away with price increases of this magnitude.
http://media01.couriermail.com.au/multimedia/2008/06/080616_suburbs/Detailed_Suburb_Impacts.pdf
“The Federal Opposition says it has concerns that the Government’s new national employment standards will increase costs for businesses and employers.”
Once the party of big business, always the party of big business!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/16/2276492.htm?section=justin
The buget in toto was passed tonight?
At 10:30pm, on the dot, I’ll have Newspoll up on mumble. Once again, may or may not be first out of the blocks. (Wasn’t last fortnight.)
More Trouble for the WA Liberals
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/16/2276428.htm
57 gusface – that is exactly why the Libs have no chance at the next election. Everytime they open their mouths on IR they are saying “we still support Workchoices”.
GB
maintain the rage
“well may we say god save the liberal party, cos nothing will save workchoices”
with apologies to eg
Having just watched Kevvie on with Kerry on the 7.30 Report, I reckon The Shrike’s hypothesis, or a version of same, is looking very enticing. He certainly wove the international perspective on oil very deftly. Ducked and weaved with adroitness around what can be done at national level. Interesting.
Jeez, William, you might be known to your Mum as William, but for us Bludgers, you’re an absolute hero for this site. When you get your Ph.D., do you think it’d be O.K. for us to send you a virtual Ph.D. for tolerance, or alternatively, a binge amount of quality wine of your choosing?
Mumble – Are you now considered a legit media outlet by Newspoll?
They are trying to make me legit; they use both carrot and stick.
But it actually fell off the back of a truck …
Just not quite prepared to let you be first with the latest for once though Mumble. Competitive world is Newspoll.
Mumble, you’r so legit you’ve crossed over.
Parroting the MSM thmes, going with the flow.
You know which side your bread’s buttered on.
Bushie
bit harsh on Mr Mumble methinks
remember in the dark days his was one of the few sites to at least air the truth
imho
Sold! - to the gaunt American with an Australian accent.
Gotta agree with BB in the sense that I have found Mumble much more closely aligned in opinion with MSM than before the election
53 Gary Bruce
I couldn’t call them jollies, but I can recognise hard yards when I see them
Brendan, “I need no blanket, my love for my country keeps me warm” Nelson made a serious, though bumbling, effort at leadership when he dragged the Libs behind his petrol price vs petrol tax assault.
Over the last few weeks, L-np picked up a couple of points in both Newspoll and AC Neilson, and I’d take notice if I were you.
73 Mr Squiggle – shaking in my boots Squig with these figures by ACNielsen, absolutely frantic.
72 Andrew – I have to agree with that, unfortunately.
Gary,
The next time you have a look at your shaking boots, remember, the thing about chipping-away at something is that you will only ever see small chips fall to your feet..one at a time….
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I would like to go have my third glass of red tonight, which, under Kevin Rein’s new world order, makes me a binge drinker –
I notice you’ve posted more than three time tonight, does that make you a
BINGE-POSTER????
53/47 is about the final target for Labor on election day.
The big difference this time around is they get the incumbency advantage that last time saved the LNP from total destruction at the last minute.
Mr Squiggle, yes we have noticed that the opposition have shifted from the depths of psephological despair. I think I would worry once they start coming within cooee of 50% and even then given the advantages of incumbency in a campaign, they’d probably need to start out at 53 or 54. Keep dreaming
Squig, how petty can you get? I’m sure, with the delusional stuff you’ve been coming out with 4 drinks would be about 25% of your daily needs.
Gary
how has mumble changed?
The LNP will have to try and turn to competence and decent policy making eventually and that will also require unequivocally dropping WorkChoices type IR.
They can with the help of the MSM whittle back a lot of points but during an election campaign it wont be enough to get them over the line – unless the MSM go completely mad and continue their anti-Labor campaign there as well, including a redefinition of truth.
The thing the LNP should be doing is giving Turnbull a go right now, if he cant hack it there is still time to try another. I believe they need to bring in some brand new talent if they have any laying around out the back, and preferably moderates. Even if they don’t have the talent they should be developing what they have by bringing them out the front.
Downer wont run less he get twice humiliated by his arch rival Rudd. Cossie wont risk wasting 3-6 years after being Treasurer for so long.
The MSM while making the LNP look a bit like a credible opposition are really papering over some serious weaknesses that should be exposed and dealt with.
An example is mumble on the morgan 58.5/41.5 poll:
Mr Rudd is stuck in some strange place and can’t get out”. Sounds like Glen Milne or Dennis Shanahan.
Any political leader would only dream to be stuck with such a massive lead.
OK then,
Little me, little-minded me….
Any bets on Newspoll?
I’d guess 56-44, same as AC Neilson
Mumble has at times gone into the Rudd bashing business. I don’t mind criticisms of policy but this personal character assisination stuff is garbage and I would have thought someone like Mumble, who I’ve had a lot of time for, would avoid that type of argument.
Andrew
to report on a meme or perception does not imply bias as such
expressing an opinion from a point of concern (mumble) is different from expressing an opinion from a point of vindictiveness (poison dwarf et al)
Phwooar! Tough crowd tonight!
steady poss
Heh Gus! I’m hiding behind the wire mesh just in case
gusface, the example I quoted was an opinion of mumble, he was not reporting someone else’s opinion. I should also add though that mumble did call milne on his one term rubbish
You can’t really go implying that the Prime Minister might be considered a megalomaniac without expecting half the country to get shirty.
30 minutes to go before Newspoll (thank god for the 2 hour time difference in WA – we find out at 8.30pm
Newspoll – No Change
Frank, we’ve sent Mumble out to meet the Newspoll truck to see if we can get it earlier.
steve
if he aint rolled in some alley by half the population
No change? But what about all the trouble Rudd is in over petrol??
Peter Brent will do me. Critiquing (as opposed to deprecating) is his stock in trade. Give him a break.
However the deal with Rupert Mephistopheles is a bit of a worry (joke).
I just had a vision of psephology being like being in a rock band? “You’ve changed man, you used to be about the Polls; now its about the leaks”. I bet the groupies wouldn’t be as good.
While I think the MSM is not the bastion of true and democratic news reporting they portray themselves as being, remember that all these “biased” comments and commentaries are nothing but the opinion of the writer.You either accept them at face value or a with pinch of salt.
If you disagree you write to them and tell them so. Some may reply.Some won’t. Matt Price (RIP) to his credit took the time to reply even if he thought the respondents to his column were not entirely sane.
As an example, Mr Shanahan I feel was left with no doubts whatsoever what the majority of people thought about his reporting and analysis of the last election. His editor was forced to write an editorial defending him. That shows the power of the right of reply we have.
Just be grateful we live in a society that allows us to vent our spleens without the worry of being imprisoned or kidnapped or murdered.
“Just be grateful we live in a society that allows us to vent our spleens without the worry of being imprisoned…”
Missed the wonderful years of Bjelke Petersen did we sondeo?
Mumbles opinion piece is quite good actually.
Howard and Hawke both had the same trouble, many commentated that Howard seemed stunned by the idea of being PM and seemingly didn’t know what to do next. Howard and Hawke both had tough first up reelections.
Sometimes the fairest and best criticism comes from your own supporters.
Tonight’s Newspoll (in 12 minutes) will show once and for all that Kevin Rudd not only knew about the Iguana Joe incident, but was actually there. Behind the bar, serving alcopops.
and you were the poll dancer i presume
steve@98: as much as I have no respect for Bjelke Petersen, did he ever have anyone kidnapped and murdered for complaining.?
No, my night off.
Mr Mumbles, what are you doing here? I thought you’d be slaving away writing the update for your site in raw HTML (since you dont yet have a blog! grumble grumble – I’m not going to let this go you know Pete!
)
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23875578-601,00.html
59/41
Oh no, call the cops! Mumble rolled again!
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23875578-601,00.html
and newspoll says:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23875578-601,00.html
Missed it Pete:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23875578-601,00.html
Well arent we all just pathetic!
we are all poll tragics….god help us all..
Simply incredible!
Nurse!
The result I mean – simply incredible after a tough week the Ruddster has pulled away.
Now will the commentators now come out and admit they were wrong?? Yeah sure
The end of the Milne Petrol inspired honeymoon?
Possum, I really will get the blog happening. In fact, I’ve started practicing here http://mumble.com.au/blog/ but I am a very slow learner. I want to preserve the flexibility to put cartoons in the top and so on.
In the meantime, you can now find Newspoll here.
I need to get a life. Or at least another hobby.
Sorry, I mean here.
One end of the spectrum, 56 being the other end?
maybe people are like playing silly buggers ,having a joke withh the pollsters you know the aussie larrikin spirit-oops that was jwh last year
How dare Sam Maiden claim that “KEVIN Rudd’s honeymoon with Australian voters is not yet over…” Someone at the Oz needs to have her tested for drug use. How can she not be aware that the honeymoon ended when Dennis said it so?
What a shame! The poor, poor Libs!
The opposition are cactus and by implication so is Dr Nelson.
Turnbull should challenge soon. The time is right.
Expect Gippsland to be close. Very close. If the ALP wins it then the opposition will tear itself apart. No wonder Costello can’t be tempted to stay.
Brenda’s peaked 13% and falling
118 mumble. Whoah, this should be fun watching Dennis trying to spin this one hehe.
Faaaaark! I thought I was being ironic!
I doubt Gippsland will fall. It is the type of seats that won’t change much, which means other seats are moving more.
New thread.
Vera
Peak Brenda!!
maybe poss could start a futures market
There will be a new Lib leader soon one suspects. Turnbull ,Costello or even Downer.
Let the backstabbing begin.
Regardless of Nelson’s small fluctuations it is time right now to give Turnbull a go. I want to see if he is strong enough to get the LNP to make changes and especially drop Workchoices. If he shows some promise in the polls then he might find himself with some clout within his own group….dreaming, but we really do need a competent and relevant Opposition party.
Oh Pete – you’re just sweet talkin’ me with your gonna be wordpress ways!
Throwing the Newspoll into context, here’s the ALP TPP for every poll of 2008 from the three majors (Newspoll, Morgan and ACN) with a smoothed non-parametric regression line running through them to show us the likely state of play.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/alptppjune16allpolls.jpg