Via Peter Brent at Mumble comes the news that Labor’s lead in tomorrow’s Newspoll is up to 59-41 from 57-43 a fortnight ago. More to follow …
UPDATE: The Australian report was apparently up first, which they interestingly seem to be doing a little earlier now.
UPDATE 2: Graphic here.
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The Honeymoon is over … no wait … Ummm Dennis and Glenn, please tell me what this means…
Cant wait to see Shameahams spin on this one. SURELY, he cant spin this positively for Nelson and the opposition???
Gus from the previous thread – Peak Brenda
Roflol!
Everyone’s been on the comedy juice tonight!
I’ll throw this into this thread since it’s a bit relevant; putting the Newspoll into context, here’s the ALP TPP for every poll of 2008 from the three majors (Newspoll, Morgan and ACN) with a smoothed non-parametric regression line running through them to show us the likely state of play.
http://possumcomitatus.files.wordpress.com/2008/06/alptppjune16allpolls.jpg
They have to beat Mr Mumble now as well as Lateline. That is why their going earlier.
And if there was every any need for evidnece this poll shows Iguanagate is hardly the subject that is going to have people marching in the street. MP yells at staff in Pub. Big Woop.
The post coital thingummy is definititely on the truck that has no gas! Bring on the fourth beer, says I.
Possum, Can you plot where the honeymoon ended on the graph?
I think Nelson should stay. The time to roll him was when he first announced his surplus busting petrol cut. Too late now, let him stay till the next election at least. Hell make him leader for the next decade.
Lib primary vote at 29% OUCH
Just imagine the polls if Labor got an even break. As it is the full weight of the conservative commentators can’t drag Rudd and Co. down to the gutter which they inhabit.
Poss
i reckon a trade on a 90 day bill would be about right for Peak Brenda at the moment
though i heard a big deposit of Brenda was discovered, it turned out to be hot air
Andrew at 8
Ouch indeed. Is this an all time low for the Libs?
If you were to draw one of those lines that Bryan Palmer was so fond of then the Liberals might actually have a chance in 18 months. But it shows how good his lines were, given that the ALP won the election.
Also I wonder how Mr Palmer is going with Jenny Macklin as his boss?
Disagree with Kina on previous thread that the time is right to give Turnbull a go. This would be good for Labor because Turnbull would likely also be run over by the same Rudd popularity truck. He would be better waiting at least 12 months once some of the shine has come off. But as a Labor supporter, I hope they change now.
It’s the hybrid bump. Let this be a lesson to the Libs not to get cute with the manufacturing sector. Every man/woman working low paid service jobs still longs for the good old days.
IMHO
Peter Brent take a bow.
It’s been six weeks since the budget. Time for that bounce? And what a bounce!
Just imagine if no petrol/Neal crises!
14 – You could very well be right. The $35 Million might not have been needed but it demostrated that the government believes we should still be making stuff here, not just digging up dirt. I didn’t think attacking Industry investment was a wise move.
I like the Piping Shrikes view on Rudd bringing International factors into domestic politics.
It does put things into a perspective that puts less responsibility on govt, like fuel prices, credit crunches, reliance on China/Asia etc but also puts Rudd center stage in his own element. It is also difficult for the Opposition to counter this use of foreign affairs in the domestic context where Rudd is the consummate performer so far/
It may well be effective over time as Rudd Labor educate the public how the international environment puts some things outside the power of govt. Rudd also helped to undermine Howard’s economic credentials by continually referring to the mining boom, implying it to be the true source of our success.
http://thepipingshrike.blogspot.com/
3) International politics is bunk
Obviously politics here is influenced by international factors as much as any other country’s, its just that in Australia it has traditionally not been polite to mention it. Rudd has changed all this. While admitting there is less he can do domestically, Rudd has been keen to be seen as much more pro-active on the international stage.
BTW Glen Milne never responded to my email about his one-term government crap. With this newspoll now there is NO WAY he will respond!!
LMFAO! Do we need any more proof that the MSM(including sadly the ABC) is completely out of touch with the general public? Considering the barrage of negative shit that’s been heaped on Rudd & Co, you’ve got to say 59-41 is a damn fine poll figure!
A great example of why the Libs are trailing badly is today’s parl focus:
) v important ‘evidence’ (read speculation) about purported bad judgement.
Labor – Workplace reform, pacific free trade and use of seasonal workers from pacific nations and Minister off to OPEC meeting to discuss production/ oil prices.
Coalition – Speculation that Rudd is somehow tainted by phoning Neil and telling her to pull her head in.
Big Picture important stuff (read symbolic
Will someone please tell the coalition that substance cuts through more than petty political point scoring.
Andrew: The Poisoned Dwarf probably only replies to emails from Liberals, or those who agree with him! Good on ya though for sending it!
The opposition’s overplaying of the Neal thing shows how bad they are at opposition. Nelson may well have won brownie points ?women voters if he had of supported Rudd’s view that she needs help. But I guess a desparate man clutches at straws
The reason I want Turnbull to have a go now is that I doubt that he will do well and with him failing they may reach their bottom point sooner and then do so real reformation.
If he is successful then he will have some power to make changes, either way Nelson is damaging the brand.
Progressive, the astounding thing is that the media commentators never learn. Despite having egg on their faces so many times about Rudd’s honeymoon and all his so-called crises, they still dish up the same crap.
Which shows how important sites like this are in keeping our sanity in the face of the MSM barrage. See, the voters agree with US!!!
And, how increasingly irrelevant does INSIDERS look now? They wonder why Rudd won’t appear on that crapfest masquerading as a serious political show?
All the other polls show a slight movement to the Libs, Newpoll shows a slight move in the opposite direction.
I think this is an out-lier. Not that it matters much. All the polls show the honeymoon to be very far from over, and only marginal movements one way or the other.
Andrew: good point! Yes sir, thank goodness for this forum, and others like it!
Kina, I take your point that if Turnbull bombed now, the Libs might do some much needed soul searching, but why would you want them to do that and improve, and do you really think they are capable of it??
how do you say “what a pisser” in chinese? -:)
Kina at 24
With the way they are going, the ‘Brand’ will go the same way as fire brands on cattle and the animal rights groups will step in and seek that it be banned to avoid further inhumane treatment.
netvegetable, the importance of this poll it is counteracts the narrative that many in the MSM were trying to create ie. opposition improving, Rudd in trouble.
Dave55 at 6 – I’d love to except my stats programs dont have the Wishful Thinking 3.0 plugin.
Where is Glen these days? I bet he’d come on here and argue Newspoll did their survey in a safe Labor electorate LOL
32 Oh I agree! Like I said in the other thread: it’s going to fun watching Dennis trying to spin this one. But I’ve got a feeling that he will, as will most of the MSM.
Possum at 34
LOL – not worth the purchase price (how much is the OO now anyway to buy in hard copy?).
I have been a Liberal voter in the past, until after Howard’s first term. Howard’s era has seemingly wrecked the Liberal party which we will all suffer for iy. Workchoices was sign post at the extreme end of their empire.
A competent Opposition that can develop good policy and engage in solid debate helps us get the best policies and performance out of government it also gives us something to vote for should the govt be useless or corrupt. Thus I really want the Liberal party to smash into rock bottom so they can rebuild from scratch or at least if they cant do that at least become a little more moderate.
Can’t wait to see Brenda’s face tomorrow when he drags his sorry arse into QT
I wouldn’t be surprised is this is some sort of a turning point where the Opposition have had their fun along with the MSM and people have decided enough of this crap let the government get on with the job.
It is very destabilising for people and business to have every move by the Federal Government parodied and thrown into uncertainty. Life is tough enough without this never ending circus providing passive resistance to every decision taken.
just told the better half the numbers 41-59
“is that Brendas days left as leader”
roflol
Sorry to interrupt the gleefest for a moment, but did someone say the budget bills had been passed by the Senate holus bolus? Any details?
I was too busy laughing, sorry, considering the Newspoll result, when I heard, for it to sink in.
With the exception of Michelle Grattan, Peter Hartcher and George Meglogenis(yes, I’ve spelt his name incorrectly), the MSM are a bunch of hacks. Were so many of them degraded by the Howard era that they know no other way other than to cowtow to the Liberal Party?
Fulvio,
What’s your take on the proposed leadership Challenge by Anthony Fels against Sniffwell ?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/16/2276556.htm
I’m glad to see some political capital still evident, because there’s going to be some real hard stuff to negotiate with the population in the near future. Let’s hope Rudd can cut through the pap, or we’re all cactus.
As I said before, Rudd and Swan just need to play fuel prices straight, not pretend they can fix it, and manage inflation. People can see that Nelson has no credible solution, even if they don’t like the situation. The tax cuts will kick in after July 1 and people will notice that so the relief is in sight. If Rudd and Swan can show they can handle inflation without caving in to every interest group that complains they will actually come our of this looking a stronger government IMO.
For a bit more context with the Newspoll – here’s the ALP and Coalition primary votes from every poll of 2008 with a line of best fit running through them (again, a non-parametric Loess regression)
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/06/alpprimallpollsjune16.jpg
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/files/2008/06/coalprimallpollsjune16.jpg
The Greens and others are powering on, that’s where the differential between the ALP primary and ALP TPP preferred is coming from.
From the last article I linked to, someone got their Liberal MP’s and former ACCC Chairpersons mixed up
44 & 47:
It’s no surpise that “the Greens… are powering on”, with the way the two major parties are acting, especially in WA.
Nothing better symbolises the total moral bankruptcy than the Chair Sniffer from WA!
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