Seems Morgan have taken the week off, not counting its release of qualitative findings from federal polling conducted from June 4 to 9, leaving the following collection to stand on its own:
• The Launceston Examiner has published findings from an EMRS poll showing new Tasmanian Premier David Bartlett leading Liberal leader Will Hodgman 46 per cent to 32 per cent as preferred premier, whereas Paul Lennon trailed 32 per cent to 17 per cent in the poll immediately before his resignation. Hat tip to Peter Tucker.
• A poll by new kids on the block Essential Research shows Labor with a two-party lead of 59-41. The AAP report says this means Labor has “dropped one point”, but I think they might have missed the poll published on June 2 which had the score at 56-44.
• Brisbane’s Sunday Mail has published results from its Queensland Galaxy survey (its state-level findings are discussed here) on Liberal federal leadership preference, showing Peter Costello leading Malcolm Turnbull and Brendan Nelson with 30 per cent, 23 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Respondents were also quizzed on petrol, maternity leave and the budget, though not (federal) voting intention.
• Ian McAllister of Australian National University and Juliet Clark of Deakin University have produced a report entitled Trends in Australian Political Opinion: Results from the Australian Election Study, 1987-2007, updating an earlier effort from before last year’s election. Hats off to News Limited for reporting the story thus. I haven’t read it yet, but these graphs from Crikey were absorbing enough that I’ve decided to pinch them:
• The Redistribution Committee for the Northern Territory has recommended no change to the boundaries of Solomon and Lingiari. Opponents of the status quo have until July 18 to register their displeasure. That is also the projected date for publication of proposed new boundaries for Western Australia (UPDATE: the date has been put back to August 1), with Tasmania to follow on August 22.
• Four days to go until the Gippsland by-election, on which discussion is invited here. Also on Saturday is a Victorian state by-election for Kororoit, vacated by one-time Police Minister Andre Haermeyer, where prominent charity worker and Phil Cleary ally Les Twentyman is taking the challenge up to Labor candidate Marlene Kairouz. More on this shortly.
220 Comments
If they had combined that question on Bob Brown and sex, it would have got a better run. When will academics learn about marketing and asking the right question?
Pollytrack has been made permanent.
http://possumcomitatus.wordpress.com/pollytrack/
Currently has a sample size of 3938 giving an MoE of 1.56%.
Great work Possum.
Both the Northern Territory local distribution and federal distribution are out of the way.
The question is:
Will the NT Chief Minister call an election for September/October or not?
dartboard
What do you think is significant about September/October?
(For those not up to speed with the all important NT political scene, the NT has 4 year terms, and the election is due in June next year.)
I find it interesting that in the second graph, the Liberals are considered more to the right than the Greens are to the left. Not disputing that finding. But it brings to mind a dismissive line I have heard from some Liberals in recent years: referring to the “extreme Greens”.
Clearly a gimmicky sort-of-rhyming slight aimed at the attention of a low-brow Liberal audience. It’s also the pot calling the kettle black, quite brazenly.
And those graphs from McAllister and Clark are interesting.
The Cheif Minister is being pressured to acheive his own mandate after rolling the incumbent following the Federal Election.
The previous CM and deputy are cluttering the back benches and not giving a good account of themselves, having already had new candidates for their seats announced for the next election.
A third senior member announced his retirement on the weekend, previously the Local Govt Minister, who was pressured into delaying Local Government reforms and amalgamations which are up for elections later his year.
One of the two Independents gave her “farewell” speach this past week.
Its bread and circuses time in Darwin (V8’s, Darwin Cup, Convention Centre opening, Show Circuit, advertising blitz).
The opposition has pre-selected half its candidates so far with the other half in the next two weeks or so.
The Public Service has been given some operating deadlines.
and that all bespokes that the pump is being primed.
The opposition looked shell shocked in QT today they went through the motions but they looked shattered.
In the Coalition partyroom, Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson told colleagues that climate change policy had to be handled carefully, because there was the potential for enormous damage to the economy and environment.
Deputy Opposition leader Julie Bishop used the meeting to give a critique of Mr Rudd’s first seven months in office.
She said it was clear he had an undisciplined and chaotic mind and that despite tough talk on many subjects there was often little action.
So Mesmerelda has been reading the Australian, funny thing is she said on Lateline last night “do not believe everything on the Australian’s front page”.
ruawake 9 – You are right about QT today. The oppposition was a puerile rabble and the government didn’t raise a sweat wiping the floor with them.
Bordering on embarassing!
What an unusual poll was the June 4-9 Morgan qualitative poll. The only questions asked invite negative comments, and that’s about all they got. While the responses include interesting and important information for both parties, why not ask separate questions that invite a positive response, such as ‘What do you LIKE about the Labor Government/Kevin Rudd/the Opposition/Brendan Nelson?
Why did Morgan not separate the responses of Labor voters from those of the Coalition? This would have given readers higher fidelity information. If most of the adverse comments were being made by those who support the other party/leader, little of use could be derived from them as they would be the very comments one would expect from those preferring another party/leader. In contrast, adverse comments about a party/leader coming from supporters would be of significance.
While Gary’s comments do not always accurately reflect the data set, I guess we should all be relieved that he has finally proclaimed ‘honeymoon over’. We can now put honeymoons aside until the next election.
BK
Maybe Brenda just got to look at the internal polling for Gippsland.
I was looking at the some odds on betfair and noted they are running a book on the next liberal leader. Its not generating that much excitement, the total book size so far is about $600. Compare that to the President of the US book which has turnover approaching $1mil from the same group of punters.
Still $600 seem high to me
ruawake 13 – It will be amusing to see the three different shades of spin regardless of the results in Gippsland.
Sorry, had to dig deeper and follow the money trail on the betting for the next leader of the opposition. The following sums have been forked out
Turnbull – $574 (mostly in one bet)
Brenda – $11 (but he has to make to the end of the year)
Tip – $13 (following a surge of interest since he’s not found a job)
Tony Abbott – $0 (c’mon someone put a dollar on the man)
Shrek – $0 (hey – that’s unfair – he’s a friendly guy)
Julie Bishop – $0 (The Basilisk is a no show so far – too scary)
BK
National win with a reduced majority – most probable.
Labor win with a tiny majority – possible but unlikely
Liberal win – impossible.
So realistically there are two options. Truss was talking about Labor’s 18% margin on Insiders as if Labor is sure to win, of course its bollocks but he was positioning himself to spin my first scenario as a great result for the Nats.
If Labor by some freak of preferences manage to win, then Truss will say but they should have won by much more – see we are eating into Labor’s 18% margin.
If Labor do win then I would expect mass self-immolations from the Libs.
Graph 7 seems weird… is it saying that people thought that Bob Hawke, Kim Beazley and Kevin Rudd are more right-wing than John Howard? Or is it Paul Keating who is the rightest? Not too sure about that one…
ruawake 17 – I do agree with your comments on the possible outcomes. It is a great results for the Nats if there are ANY members in parliament. They have been on a downward trajectory for quite some time.
On this subject Lindsay Tanner gave Truss a good touch up in QT yesterday when the gallery was packed with rowdy wheat farmers. He said that when he was 10 years old he handed out how-to-vote cards for the Country Party and then went on to compare them with the parlous Nationals. Hilarious!
Andos @18
I thought that at first too – but its actually a measurement (from 0-10) of how good people perceive the various leaders, not left/right.
interesting to see the nationals perceived as more left than the liberals – perhaps ‘agrarian socialists’ isn’t too far from the mark afterall!
Ah yes, that unlabelled axis threw me.
BK and Ruawake: what about the prospects for the Nats in WA… will there be a resurgence despite ‘one vote, one value’?
dartboard @ 8
Yep, that all adds up, though it’s not proof of course.
One small quibble. IIRC, Clare Martin wasn’t rolled, she resigned. There was no challenge, at least no formal, public one. She may well have decided to go quietly after being given the political facts by party seniors behind closed doors.
My reading is that Labor has 4 Federal members from WA. The Liberals have 11. The Nats have zero – zilch – not one.
Checked the Senate – nope not one elected last election. Checked the previous election nope none.
If you are talking about State Politics – I do not have a clue.
It’s official, Bishop’s lost it. Which is Julie, Rudd is a control freak and knows everything that goes on in his office or this?
http://news.theage.com.au/national/rudds-mind-undisciplined-chaotic-libs-20080624-2w35.html
There is only one person all over the shop and it aint Rudd.
Malcolm Farr seems to be able to interpret polling data competently.
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/malcolmfarr/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/punters_still_like_rudd#35445
The WA state Nats, under the Leadership of child politician Brendan? Grills have the remote prospect of picking up a seat or two at the expense of the Libs, courtesy of the brilliant leadership and inspiring statemanship of Troy Buswell.
But the independents have a greater possibility of gaining seats, also at the expense of the Libs, particularly a certain Mr. Omodei.
It is good to see that the Federal Police are going after the big criminals- such as Belinda Neal, pity about those drug barrons, they are not that big… What a Joke, one minute not enough resources to catch the big criminals and next minute we go after the trivial crims…
Not only that marky, get involved in underworld killings. Kill people in cold blood and in front of children so they can learn to copy and hate when they grow up.
You will become famous. You will make it on TodayTonight, ACA and radio.
Centre,
Can’t wait for the TV series “Underpolly”.
Spot on,GG at #26, a straight to the point factual analysis.
And haven’t the Lunatic Tories gone feral. Anne of WA almost ran out of capital letters!
MM and good to see channel nine paying witnesses in a police investigation. Hope Belinda Neal takes them to the media watchdog for one sided reporting and sues them.
Fulvio,
All the claims of bias etc. It’s like a right wing mirror version of PB at times.
GG are you in Melbourne? I have seen all the episodes of Underbelly and mate it is fair dinkum sickening.
The only thing more sickening is the fact that these animals and their associates are being glorified on TV and radio.
They deserve capital punishment!
And she is in fine form here
http://blogs.watoday.com.au/madashell/2008/06/carpenters_blac.html
That’s exactly what I though GG! (except we’re far more sparing with the capitals).
Centre,
That’s a tough call on Della and Belinda.
The Federal Police have said thanks but no thanks.
Bishop is trying to raise her profile since Turnbull’s stakes are falling and there is no one else to turn to. But she is a lightweight and has her own personal albatross which she holds close, WorkChoices. That will always kill her off – especially since the released data showed that it lost workers up to $100 a week.
The Liberal party has been slagging off at Rudd and Labor since before the election. You cant call it argument, debate or criticism as that involves some logical and sensible basis, it is simply ’slagging off’, like a group of petulant teenagers.
AND since the election it has become more thinly veiled and a more personal slagging. Bishop’s claim that Rudd has a ‘chaotic mind’ is desperate name calling exactly like a year old girl name calling at school.
The MSM have also followed the same path, becoming more desperate and shrill in their slagging off at Rudd and Labor.
However as far as politicians are concerned I think the public are used to and mostly ignore the attack of one party on another, it is expected and has happened non stop for a 100 years.
The Liberals in their name calling are perpetuating the contrast that existed before the election. Rudd and Labor avoided the negative side of politics for most of the time and have done so since except when they have some logical point to put. People I believe do not respond to the negative unless it agrees with an already held negative sentiment, otherwise it is annoying.
Very funny GG.
I’m impressed with Malcolm Farr this time round. He talks sense but, boy, does he cop it on his blog.
“undisciplined and chaotic mind” (Bishop)
Just the sort of language I run in to on a building site, or down the pub, or in a cycling bunch…NOT!
“On the outside, Kevin Rudd likes the government to appear like Hawke but on the inside it is operating like Whitlam” (Nelson)
Ahh – appealing to the sub-sub-sub set of voters who can remember both of them and voted for one but not the other – brilliant!
Underbelly – there were a lot of cops in Melbourne who believed the underworld should have been left to clean themselves up, and shouldn’t have had a single cent spent on doing it for them – better placed resources and all that. They did, I believe, manage to knock 1 ‘innocent’ off though.
onimod, I can understand the cops taking that attitude, but it was a wimpish way out, possibly because they lacked the guts or the power. Killings like that, out in the open, in public – nop, capital punishment!
And the fact they and their associates are being glorified on TV and radio is sick!
8.30 tonight on channel 9 guys, Part 2 of Schapelle Corby.
So far I would say dead-set innocent – a must see.
Boganomics – The Sequel
Hmm, so Fundies First support Binge Drinkers ?
http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21598,23917194-5005361,00.html
#43 Centre
You’re joking – you advocate the death penatly?
cille, have you seen underbelly?
Do I advocate the death penalty, under those circumstances – absolutely!
43 Centre
I think understand your points.
The cops complaint was that there were plenty of innocent people’s murders that didn’t get half the resources, while generally the underworld doesn’t cross in to the mainstream that often. The underworld thing has been going on in Melbourne for a lot longer than the current fad.
The desire to see yourself on television (the modern day cult of celebrity) does indeed mystify me though.
44
Paying the price of her family friend and associates? That might be innocent of the actual crime, but she hardly lived an innocent life. Playing with fire and all that…
No, I’m not watching, so I could be completely uninformed.
#48 Cente – no I haven’t seen the tv series underbelly – as a Melbournian I have read much about it – whatsoever I would never, ever agree with the death penalty – you want to be judge and juror so be it
46 “Hmm, so Fundies First support Binge Drinkers ?”
Looks like consistency won’t be one of their longsuits, Frank. A bit like the five different views of petrol cuts espoused by the Liberals over the past month or so. If the conservative side of politics keeps displaying this sort of splitting and backflipping it could spear them into a double dissolution looking like a pack of indecisive nohopers.
did anyone see Greg Hunt on 7 30 report tonight? he was even worse than Bishop on lateline last night, talk about sending out a boy in short pants to do a mans job, Kerry wiped the floor with him, i was actually cringing in embarrasment for the coalition, i felt like patting him on the head and saying “there,there never mind” surely the libs have better than that–or is this all thats avaliable?
52
Didn’t see it – I’m quarantining myself from video-media and Murdoch to see if it improves my mood – it’s working so far.
BUT
Hunt is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone thinks that anyone with even the slightest environmental inkling is going to vote for a party with him in any environmental portfolio they’re bonkers. I believe Allbull was seen as acceptable last year and might have been one of the reasons the LP got as close as they did.
It’s not like environmental issues are going to go away soon – it’s just another major problem the LP has to fix up.
I reckon the ALP will want to start the 1-on-1 debates about 12 months before the next election – just name 1 portfolio where the LP will come out in front?
CENTRE, i’n not going to waste William’s bandwidth here by getting on my pet hobbyhorse — but gee mate you make it hard, i feel physically sick at the thought of the death penalty, all it is is legalised murder, some people by their very actions resign from the human race but we have the ability to actually gaol them for the term of their life, never to be released, thats one of the really great things Rann has done here, the government can now apply to the courts for a never to be released sentence,for that i thank him.
#54 Judy – you say it so better than me – it’s what I wanted to say
Greg Hunt’s performance goes to what I said yesterday. Why is the Liberal party so thin on real talent across the country?
Honestly, people like Bishop and Hunt are not below the standard of shadow minister [alternative minister]. The more we hear from Turnbull the less impressive he seems.
Not only wont they be elected they shouldn’t be elected.
are below
The ANU report is something.
There is only one conclusion; Workchoices!
58
If that’s all it was, it’s not enough.
We (the country) need to be smarter than that.
would be nice to know the left/right voter position going back another decade to see if this is a long term pendulum.
Think it would be worth a wager on Labor in Gippsland. The John Black analysis in the Oz was crap. Modelling based on opinions of your fly fishing mates? Mumble argues that by-elections go against the Govt – but it didn’t when Kennett resigned. This could be a repeat of Burwood with the momentum carrying Labor to victory. The qualification is that none of the parties have selected a candidate who is clearly identified with local interests. And I understand that grassroots campaigning on the Labor side has been less than enthusiastic.
Onimod @ 59
Well you don’t need to be too smart to realise that Howard was screwing workers.
60 Kina
Is it measuring how people are changing of the relative positioning of parties – I’m not sure there’s a baseline to conclude anything about?
JustMe @ 23
Darwin TV spinning tonight that there will be an early election because one of the opposition members is retiring due to ill health.
Thats 5 legislative assembly members looking for an early out, out of a field of 25.
and yes.. the previous CM was asked to go quietly with the numbers against her.
62 No – not at all, but I’m suggesting that if we still voted solely on one of the more selfish issues…well it suggests the scattergun approach of the opposition will eventually trip over another trigger issue.
I’d rather think I’m living in a world where people consider more than personal hip pocket economics. There are plenty of people on this planet who are very happy and humanistically prosperous with a lot less stuff and money than we’ve got.
I don’t want to see the LP climb out of the mire without having to apply some intelligence, but it would be much better long term if they were a more intelligent lot.
Am I too early for informed comment tonight?
William has provided us with some very enlightening data and the opportunity to examine more. Granted it takes time to digest over 80 pages of graphs and commentary but surely the report should be generating more comment than it has today.
I admit I still need more time to analyse what may be suggested in the figures provided but as an overview I am surprised by a number of the graphs.
Sure Workchoices comes through clearly as a big issue as does the environment. But given the recent discussion on petrol prices I cant believe the environment is as big an issue as suggested by the responses in this study. If it was, petrol would be a non-issue and the concentration would be on public transport, alternative fuel technology(note the derision re hybrid cars lately) etc. We would be going beyond petrol price, recognising high prices are inevitable and probably a plus for the environment as other technologies become viable and preferable.
To finish I cannot ignore the Neal/Dela Bosca fiasco. I stated in an earlier thread the smoke was smelly I think now it is identified as hydrogen sulphide! I cannot reconcile how correspondants can find excuses by comparing their actions to murderers. The comparison of extend of wrong does not make a wrong right. To again continue the football analogy is it right that Adam Goodes is not suspended for 3 head high bumps because Barry Hall swung a punch and was much more culpable?
Having just returned from several months absence overseas,and losing contact with political affairs, I saw Greg(?) Hunt on the 7:30 Report tonight. Is he always that stupid? Is he really the environment spokesman? Is he their worst performer?
Thanks onimod but I’m not convinced Workchoices was all about self interest. I think there is research to show that it influenced the vote of a wide range of voters – in particular, older voters who were concerned about the workplace rights of the future generation.
I agree with Winston, the ALP will go very close in Gippsland.
I suspect the ALP primary vote will be down slightly but the Greens will be up. No matter, they will be a preference machine for the ALP.
The problem the Nats will have is leakage from the Libs. Gippsland West is Liberal heartland, it was the safe seat of state opposition leader Alan Brown and is currently a Liberal seat (Bass) in the Victorian parliament. Many Liberals resent having a National MP and may be inclined to dump the Nats in order to elect a Liberal at future elections.
In addition I don’t think you can ignore the boost in the ALP vote because people will feel brassed that McGuaran bailed out 6 months after the last election. People get cranky when politicians force them to the polls without good reason.
Finally I’m sure the PM has been to Gippsland 2 or 3 times since the by-election was announced. It would appear that the ALP’s polling is indicating a possible gain. If it happened the opposition would go feral. I can almost smell the odour of burning flesh in the joint opposition partyroom.
Centre @ 34 -
They deserve capital punishment!
If the cops hadn’t intervened them more of them would have got it.
Sorry, Centre, but I’ve seen too many convicted of murderer eventually proved innocent.
The only way I’d accept it would be if it was voted for in a referendum in which everyones’ vote was recorded and only cops, lawyers, judges and jurors who voted in favour could arrest, prosecute and convict, and if it was later proved there had been a miscarriage of justice all those involved in the conviction shared the condemned’s fate. It’ll never happen.
Can those wishing to discuss Gippsland please do so on the Gippsland thread.
66 colin
sorry – I’m busy today/tonight – it’s up to you!
Moving house this week – reducing my carbon footprint.
So this must be the Underbelly/binge drinking/Greg Hunt thread? Get me out of here.
A question after reading the report.
Why did Labor not win the 2001 election?
Sceptic @69, the Gippsland West you refer to is in McMilan and Flinders, not Gippsland. You can check the maps at http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2008/gippsland/boundaries.htm
My favourite question in the AES study is the one that asks whether voters voted below the line in the Senate. The answer is always 12%, when the actual number is 5%. Simon Jackman did a paper pointing out that this difference can never be explained by sample error. Either people lie or the sample is biased.
Given that filling out an AES survey is as time consuming as voting below the line, I go for the biased sample. Not enough to discredit the exercise of the survey, but enough to always make you think about whether your finding could be affected by the sample. I always find the answers to Senate questions somewhat odd in the AES survey.
Antony, think there is another explanation (not about Gippsland, coz that’s on another thread). I think that not everyone is as engaged with elections as you (and we) are and in a survey conducted some time after the election can’t actually recall what they did when voting for the Senate. So given that there is a choice, some answers will be randomly distributed.
I’ve got to agree Greg Hunt was woeful on 7.30 Report tonight! And this turkey is one of Costello’s chief backers? No wonder Captain Smirk never got anywhere near ousting Howard.
AG,
The biased sample sound very plausible. If ever I find my myself having to response to a long survey I just plough on – tick, tick tick – ops got that wrong – just keep going.
It could easily tickle a 5% baseline up to 12% with type I errors.
Antony
I noted your comments a week or so ago discounting internet blogs , I have a couple of counter points.
1) The AES study, note the graph that shows the steady increase in internet usage to obtain information.
2)Consider ‘getup’, there activities were only possible because of the internet.
3) Lot of stuff here http://tokblog.org/
Judy Barnes & Mayo F,
I would only support the death penalty – only for horrific murder and proven 100% without any doubt. I you haven’t seen Underbelly, make sure you do, you might change your mind? They put down dogs for attacking people, these animals are much worse. Also it would save taxpayer dollars and probably act as a better deterrent.
I just saw part 2 of Corby on 9. Oh no, I sense another Lindy Chamberlain!
AG, another thought re Senate voting below the line. I don’t think there is necessarily a correlation between filling out surveys and voting below the line. I’m not sure that those who vote below the line do so because they have an obsession with ticking boxes. In many cases (including my own) it is a deliberate decision to cast an individual vote which isn’t dictated by how-to-vote cards.
Greg Hunt knows, just like his party, that a cut in the excise would only save drivers a couple of bucks a week and is a cheap populist policy. He almost addmitted as much, by not knowing what to say, on the 7.30 Report.
Antony
I agree with you that the sample may be biased in this question and also in the response to the use of how to vote cards (same graph). Having spent many elections handing out these cards I have had probably no more than 2 people talk to me about the distribution of preferences for the Senate or State Upper House if they follow the card. Whilst you can never tell what people actually put on their voting slips there are three types of voters. Those that take all cards, those that take one and those that take none. None of these groups stand out as below the line voters in the Upper Houses.
It is the ones who want to talk who are the ones who want to go beyond the simple card recommendations.
I believe the responses to these questions are actually the people who want to appear thoughtful and not following like sheep, who respond they think for themselves. The reality is probably in the cubicle they take the quick and easy way out.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/24/2284789.htm?section=justin
Hunt:
“Do you do as the rest of the world has done and look at vehicle emission standards or cleaner cars, or do we become the only country in the world to put a new tax, a petrol tax of 10, 20 or 30 cents a litre on fuel, which is unlikely to have any real impact on emissions?”
HA!
Europe had generally moved in the direction of taxing vehicles on engine capacity, particularly in Scandinavia.
You know, like a luxury car tax…
I just love the way pollies ‘call for a debate’ instead of just putting their position down on the table and waiting for the response. It’s in the same mode of idiocy whereby Hockey can’t tell us what any opposition policy might be, just in case the country might benefit from it – better to save it up for a rainy day or something.
Freaking idiots.
Oops sorry antony I meant I dont agree with a biased sample
Progressive, i think it was one of the worse performances i’ve seen from someone who is supposed to be handling the portfolio being commented on, it was worse than pathetic, he was way out of his depth and Kerry didnt let him off the hook neither.
Mayoferal, if they were going to execute Von Einam i would be the first one demonstrating outside the prison waving my anti death penalty banner, i’m satisfied that he will never be free to hurt another young lad again, we owe that to the 5 lost boys.
Winston, this is one old dear, who though an avowed leftie, desperately wanted a change of government for my grandies sakes, it’s not going to make much of a difference for me — except for the satisfaction of a better, more humane caring OZ for my young ones, i want them to develope a social concience, respecting the wide range of people who share our wonderful country– instead of the wedged racist society that was fostered under Howard.
Charles,
Yes, I did note the graph, but you really should look at the numbers and not be hypnotised by the slope of a graph.
On whether voters used the internet to get news and information on the election, 5.3% said many times, 5.8% said on several occassions, and 8.8% said once or twice. Half said they didn’t, and another quarter didn’t have the internet.
In response to ‘Did you follow the campiagn on the internet’, it was 6.6% a good deal, 8.9% some and 13.0% not much. 71.4% said not at all. And these answers from a survey that is probably biased in favour of those interested in politics.
They are still tiny numbers compared to the US. The big difference in Australia is compulsory voting. There is a vast passive mass of Australian voters who in other countries would not vote. I’ve spent the day reading material provided to me for tomorrow’s Microsoft seminar on the internet and politics. It’s all so American specific and about active citizens which is about the American system and its system of primaries and open parties.
Good on ya Judy Barnes.
Colin
There is always an exception, I take all how to votes ( unless I’m real mad with a party and want to let the poor member know) and I always vote below the line. I know which pack I want to put last. Rest assured I wasn’t one of the voters that gave family first a member because all the major parties messed up their preferences.
Even better: Greg Hunt is one of the guests on this week’s Q&A: another 60 minutes of laughter!
Hard times in state deflate Crist’s approval ratings
TALLAHASSEE — Rising gas prices, the falling real estate market and deep state budget cuts have not only brought South Florida’s economy to a crawl, they’ve deflated the once sky-high approval ratings of Gov. Charlie Crist, according to a new Miami Herald poll.
The governor is doing a fair to poor job of handling South Florida issues, according to 52 percent of the people surveyed by Zogby International in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. That compares with 43 percent who say he’s doing a good to excellent job.
http://www.miamiherald.com/516/story/580784.html
Sorry that was for the US election.
Suppose it can’t be fixed.
Antony
I think the interesting thing about the graph was the shape, yes the figures are still low, but the rate of increase has an upward trend.
Did you also note the number that said they would still vote even if they didn’t have to, that figure is a way to get an idea of the bias, I bet there is phone poll on that subject and I bet it is not about 70%.
Hopefully he is asked to reconcile his views on climate change with those of the member for Tangey who is more concerned with climate change on the moon’s of Saturn than on Earth.
Everyone sign this petition concerning the crisis in Zimbabwe:
http://www.avaaz.org/en/save_zimbabwe/6.php?cl=100927982
I leaped before I looked.
Colin @ 85, I’m using biased in its strict statistical meaning. We know from elections that 5% of the population vote below the line, but every AES study comes up with 12% as the answer to the question of whether people voted below the line. In other words, the survey consistently produces a biased estimate of the population mean. Simon Jackman did a very good paper proving that this is not produced by random variation, and in all liklihood is not even not caused by a biased sample. For whatever reason, some people do not give an honest answer to that question. There’s all sorts of speculation you can make, but the cause is something you can’t prove. There’s a whole literature about survey questions and people giving what they think to being the correct answer. This is probably one of them.
Charles
Look at the comparison between those using the internet in 2004 and the increase to 2007 and those attending a meeting through the two election periods. There was a larger increase in the meeting participants from the 2004 election to 2007 even though the internet presence was hammered through the last election.
Probably says real people like to talk to real people rather than interact remotely as we do. Both figures are extremely low and suggests the perceptions we get over the net are not to be relied upon. This would be particularly so on most blog sites that attract a particular reader.
Antony @ 97, is there a link to the Simon Jackman paper?
Progressive, surely they won’t be stupid enough to let Hunt loose on the small screen yet again, especially after tonights dreadful performance, Kerry hung him out to dry without the slightest effort, mind, i DO love that little grin Kerry gives immediatly before moving in for the kill, i honestly cant but help feel sorry for the hapless Hunt.
Charles
There are of course always those who do their homework first. I forgot to recognise your group.
From memory, he assessed that question in a paper on voluntary voting, and used that question to try and assess whether the question on whether people would vote under voluntary voting could be relied on. If you find it, it was a brilliant paper, but requires a good knowledge of statistics.
I think the paper is –
Non-Compulsory Voting in Australia?: what surveys can (and can’t) tell us
Electoral Studies. 1999. 18:29-48.
No link sorry.
Thanks dartboard, that is what I thought. (BTW, should just mention I am a Top End resident, though not in direct contact with the inner workings of government any longer.)
••••••••••
84
onimod Says:
Europe had generally moved in the direction of taxing vehicles on engine capacity,…
Hasn’t New Zealand had a de facto tax for decades, in the form of very high registration fees, for any standard passenger car over 2 litre engine capacity?
Any UnZudders here can tell us?
••••••••••
And as for Greg Hunt’s performance on 7:30 Report tonight, wasn’t he supposed to be one of the Coalition’s rising young stars?
CENTRE, we’re all fallable human beings, we can all make mistakes, how many cases have you heard about where someone has identified an offender only for it to be found out later it was mistaken identity?,it’s awfully hard to pick someone up, brush them off and say sorry after you’ve executed them, then what about the executioner?, how can anyone live with being a legalised murderer? it would have to catch up with them emotionally eventually,how would you go about choosing someone to do your dirty work for you? i’d like to think we are better than that, i’ve sat through quite a few murder trials supporting the victims families concerned and i can honestly say that not one of them wanted a death penalty, maybe losing someone through the deliberate actions of another makes you value anothers life– i don’t know, i hav’nt got all of the answers, all i know as i wrote previously– sentenced never to be released if an offender is deemed to be an threat to the greater population is all i can offer.
Thanks Antony I will do some searching
re post 67.
Mike C in answer to your three questions; 1.yes 2.yes 3.no, he is one of their best performers.
I just watched Greg Hunt’s 7:30 report performance on the ABC website. Talk about 9 minutes of incomprehensible gobbledy-gook. He obviously had nothing to say except for a couple of well-rehearsed catchphrases. Kerry O’brien was having a field day! For most of the interview it looked like Hunt was wishing that that parachute had failed to open…
Antony
The time of the decision on peoples votes is interesting, particularly given the pole narrowing in 2007 in the last week and the media speculation on polling day in 2004. What is your analysis of these figures?
Yes but Judy I am saying only if proven guilty 100% without any doubt.
Killing over drugs and serious criminal activity, in cold blood, out in the open, in public, in front of children (how would you live the rest of your life to witness a parent being shot dead in front of your eyes)?
No way – capital punishment for sure!
Centre, I don’t agree with you, but that’s by the by.
This is an argument you can’t possibly win when Judy takes the opposite position.
Thank you Antony I found the article
ok Centre–are you going to do the deed? or do you want to delegate it to someone else? i guess we’ll have to agree to disagree lol, how does anyone live through a loved one being murdered? i guess they survive, humans DO survive the most horrific circumstances, i’ve seen it all–the results of post traumatic stress syndrome etc, but somehow they survive, i loathe the term victims, i much prefer survivers, this “bleeding heart” old fossil is eternally grateful we live in a country that has left the days of capital punishment behind in the dim dark past.
aint it grand that we can blog freely with differing opinions and not worry, gosh i love my beloved OZ.
it’s way past midnight and that redneck Bob Francis has finished his radio stint for the night so it’s safe to toddle off to my nice comfy bed and turn the talkback on, thanks for the debate Centre {though i dont think it made us popular with William} g’night all.
And it’s rather ironic that both he andKeith McGowan were both Top 40 DJ’s in the Permissive 60’s in Adelaide and Perth (in Keith’s case) but now present very right wing views contrary to the music thy played at the time, ie Bob Dylan, The Stones and The Beatles.
pmsl Frank, Francis goes for the shock jock stuff and whenever anything about V.E. comes up in the papers he does a rant about him and would love to get me commenting on air, pigs would fly before i’d bother to help his ratings, now i’m really off to bed.
NSW State Newspoll
TPP: Coalition 52, Labor 48
Primaries: ALP 41, Coalition 32, Greens 13, Other 14
Preferred Premier: O’Farrell 39, Iemma 32.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/files/nswnewspoll-25jun.pdf
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23918424-601,00.html
Oops, primaries should be ALP 32, Coalition 41.
New thread on the NSW Newspoll.
Hunt’s woeful performance on 7.30 raises one point. Fuel efficient cars.
This of course is a good idea, but Mr Hunt how much will this cost? If we do not use high petrol prices to force people to buy these vehicles what do we do?
Increase registation fees for gas guzzlers?
Reduce tax on fuel efficient cars?
Or maybe we all get a free new car – would only cost about $400 billion.
The bootstrapping campaign continues, feeding off its own fury, working itself into a fireball. From Malcolm turnbull’s article in the Herald this morning:
“Recent reports?” Now, where have I heard that phrase before?
The villagers are out with their torches and pitchforks, marching into the town square to burn the Rudd Monster alive. Open your windows and take a look…
This campaign to dummy-up the news is so laughable it makes my sides hurt.
Bushfire Bill, why on earth give the egoistic Turnbull credence and legitimacy by reading the crap he would write? i’ve given up on reading anything any pollie writes AND the right wing ranters–i feel so much better for it.
BB I wonder how that sits with Julie’s assertion that Rudd knows everything that is going on in his department because he is a “control freak”?
So Julie Bishop’s saying that the country was much better off when we had a PM who wasn’t in control?
Opposition’s 30c petrol rise ‘hysteria’
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23920400-12377,00.html
At last some reasoned reporting from the Oz.
June 25 (Bloomberg) — New Zealand’s consumer confidence fell in the second quarter, to the lowest level since the 1991 recession, amid surging credit, food and gasoline prices.
So I guess Kevin Rudd is having an effect across the ditch. If Mesmerelda is to be believed.
Centre Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 12:12 am
I’ve never really understood this position; for shear revenge keep the sucker alive and let him live out his life in prison with full knowledge of what he has done; killing him gives him an out. Why have some other human being destroy their humanity to give him the out?
Where is Glen when you need him? LOL
I think Fulvio is right, when Judy takes the opposite position I am a service break down in each set.
I am increasingly impressed by Judy’s general wonderfulness.
Obama is against fuel tax holidays.
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=8498315&ch=4226716&src=news
At 2.32m Obama talks about McCain’s idea of a 30c petrol tax reduction holiday, then goes on to say why it is a bad idea and refers to what happened when this was done in Illinois then talking about the need to focus on long term solutions etc.
Comments on this thread regarding the Gippsland by-election are being deleted. Please take them here.
Judee, Judee, Judee….
Someone has to read this crap. Anyway it was nice to see my prediction that by mid-week the phrase “recent reports of a chaotic Prime Minister’s office…” would be published by one or other of the newspapers, referring to Saturday’s bogus Weekend Australian article by John Lyons.
I get a thrill out of spotting an old-fashioned News Ltd. bootstrapping campaign early on in its existence. Stage #3 is when Fairfax newspapers start quoting “recent reports” that only surfaced for the first time a couple of days ago and which were largely unsubstantiated by the facts contained in them.
Call it a quirk of mine.
Turnbull’s article this morning was particularly schoolboyish, and outright rude in tone, showing not one iota of respect for the office of the Prime Minister. No “Mr. Rudds” were to be seen. Instead it was all “Rudd” this and “Rudd” that. It showed Turnbull’s frustration at being sidelined by the “resurgent” Brendan and demonstrated that our Malcolm is definitely not PM material. He can’t even attempt a decent smackdown article without it sounding like the petulant bleatings of a private school fag.
William,
Might I suggest you push the Gippsland thread up the batting order so that it appears on the main screen as you enter the blog (if this is possible).
Centre @ 109 -
Killing over drugs and serious criminal activity, in cold blood, out in the open, in public, in front of children (how would you live the rest of your life to witness a parent being shot dead in front of your eyes)?
No way – capital punishment for sure!
Yeah, killing for economic gain, terrible, terrible……but….um…..isn’t that we’ve been doing in Iraq?
To quote a personal ‘hero’ Smedley Butler:
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. …..Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
At least Allbull says Rudd – Mesmerelda just says He, His or She when referring to the Govt. Its as if she cannot bear to say their name.
GG
The banner at the side on the main screen entry page takes you straight to the Gippsland thread.
Watching the final moments in slow death of the Democrats, there has been a bit of debate in the past week or so about what actually killed them. Many have suggested the GST agreement was the sole reason but the actual cause was a combination of factors. I feel like throwing in my on opinion on the topic. Here are the factors that I can spot:
1) The number of leaders of the party. They had 11 leaders in 31 years. If one discounts the Chipp and Haines years (13 years), that is average leader life span of 2 years.
2) In fighting. At one time, only Andrew Murray didn’t want to be leader or deputy. They quickly became a joke and Bartlett’s post-binge brawl with Jeannie Ferris was just the punchline (no pun intended). The 2004 election saw a massive 71% fall in their share of the vote.
3) Growth of the Greens. Voters interested in Civil libs and Green issues found another group. In a post 911 world, issues like civil rights ended up being owned by the Greens and not the Democrats. The Greens have increased from around 2% to about 9% in three elections.
4) Becoming Bastards themselves. They went to the 1998 election with a policy of having a GST that didn’t include food with the belief that they would never get the Liberals to agree or the ALP would win. However, the main issue they put to the electorate was that One Nation would get the balance of power in the senate and they would be needed to stop Hanson’s storm troopers. So many voters who voted democrat in 1998 were not wanting a GST at all. Admittedly it didn’t really harm the vote that much in 2001 but it lead to the chaos in the party room that followed.
5) The party structure. The reason for much of the instability was the Democrat party rules about the membership choosing the leader. Since the early days, the membership also liked dumping sitting senators.
As for where to now for the democrats, I would suggest they are gone for good. But who knows? The DLP has managed to reappear in the Victorian Upper House and a double dissolution would reduce the required quota. But I just can’t see it happening.
Rod,
You know that and I know that but the floating bloggers don’t know that or follow that. Got that!
oh dear! it looks like ive stirred a hornets nest by turning from a chronic lurker into a poster, ive been quietly reading and enjoying every post on this site for a long, long time, every now and again i pop my head up to write one liners and then dive back into my bunker lol.
sorry Centre, i guess i’ve got very strong views on some things and in the past i’ve had to spat with the meeja and pollies to get them across, i tend to get a bit carried away, i do love a good debate though.
Bushfire Bill, i dearly love your description of the “private school fag” please, please, never lose that wonderful sense of humour or your turn of phrase, it’s given me many light moments, i look forward to many more.
Zoom, thankyou, i’m not used to a pat on the head, i guess i must have written something right, in real life i’m just an opinionated stubborn old biddy–just ask my family!
GG, you really are a grumpy old bugger aren’t you
cille,
Actually trying to educate the punters.
But, then again, go over on the US thread and there will be plenty to support your assessment.
Cheers.
132 “Might I suggest you push the Gippsland thread up the batting order so that it appears on the main screen as you enter the blog (if this is possible).”
GG,the Gippsland thread is already a brightly coloured ad on the top of the left sidebar just under Paypal. Not too hard to find at all really. Perhaps it could have an animated town crier attached complete with bell to attract attention.
steve,
I actually run my own business. We like to make it very easy for our customers to play. If William is concerned that his contributors are lost or making regular mistakes, then the solution is to review the process rather than criticise the client.
Or are you a public servant?
124 – Hysteria is right. A carbon trading scheme without petrol wouldn’t work. For one thing, it would lead to petrol and other oil fuels being used in place of other energy sources.
What is it about votes and funerals- both of them Nelson and Rudd going to a funeral for someone who changed the world and invented great things.
GG – I have – I looked and I learned – Feral
Marky, don’t be such a snob. Jane McGrath could have simply devoted herself to her husband and family during her struggle with breast cancer; noone would have blamed her. Instead she tried to do something positive – for others – with her situation.
She did change the world, if only a little bit. But the world only gets changed little bits at a time.
I hope that – given the snideness of your remarks – you have done wonderful things with your life, for others.
If you haven’t, it’s unwise to slur someone who has, even by inference.
oops my moniker has gone haywire -cb is cille – sorry
So how well did Rudd, Nelson and Ellis and the rest of these celebrities know her?
For our pollies it is all about votes instead of compassion.
Zoom your a victim of the celebrity disease which has captured our lame and useless politicians.
I have to ask: why were Rudd and Nelson at Jane McGrath’s funeral? Did they know the lady personally? I’m getting tired of politicians attaching themselves to these events.
Marky, you don’t have to know someone personally to recognise they’ve made a contribution and to attend their funeral.
All the reports of the funeral featured the many women who turned up to the funeral, not because they knew Jane McGrath personally but because they were survivors of breast cancer and wished to acknowledge the work she had done in this area.
I wouldn’t have called her a celebrity, and cricketers don’t interest me (nor, I have to say, do celebrities impress me, and I’ve met a few!!).
People who do good things with their lives do.
I notice you haven’t revealed what self sacrificing, life enhancing activities you undertake for others.
It was a no win game. If either Nelson or Rudd goes, the other has to go too. Or else the media makes an issue out of it, and their main message they are trying to get across will not be heard. The Neal saga is an example of a story getting in the way of real issues.
Politics is about keeping the public on side if you want to be able to do stuff.
Marky this kills me because I know that my husband died without all the fanfare of Jane – he was no less important and deserving of a huge funeral like all the people that die every year to cancer.
Roger was 48 years old and had his battles over 12 years. He died.
I’ts so easy to sneer – please don’t – it’s demeaning
I felt for those two little kids, they looked so brave! I can’t imagine how traumatic it would be to lose your mother at such a young age.
C’mon marky, get real. Not everything pollies do are for one or two votes, probably with the exception of the rodent.
Glen Mcgrath is one of our best ever fast bowlers and an absolutely top bloke. Jane was a fantastic mother and would be an inspiration to all suffering from the same illness.
What a seriously loony left disposition you have marky!
Yeah, now liberal voters are going to vote for Rudd, oh and labor voters are going to vote for Nelson because they were at the funeral?
i am not sneering at the grief of the situation and her greif i respect the loss and hurt and the pain and understand how terrible it is.
My argument is about politicians and celebrities and how they continue to be captured by it, it is not about compassion it is about being in the spotlight and showing that you understand but in reality they do not.
I read in an article in todays Age about people who are victims of housing bungles, by builders who continually build poorly constucted buildings and in the process defraud the owners, and yep guess what they get away with it, and what are our pollies doing very little. People who live in caravans and are paying large mortgages and fighting in courts for compensation. Meanwhile though our pollies are playing television capture and trying to show they care.
Sorry if i made an issue of it but i hate our politicians trying to show they care because for them it is not about this it is about public relations and media capture.
Fairman- you are right but this does not mean you cannot be critical of it.
I do things for charities such as fundraising and help out occasionally with a Refugee group, anything else zoom.
If our pollies cared about people they would actually do things which fix problems in the community instead of developing bandaid solutions.
How about Swan and Rudd visiting Tosser Turner in the last days of his life. This was not publicised or planned. It was a spur of the moment decision and their is independant proof of these facts. It is also a recorded fact that he (Tosser) was over the moon that he was honoured in this way. So Sarcy Marky, what have you done for humanity lately – should be an impressive list going by your stated opinions on here!
Tom.
Centre i am fed up with this celebrity news, where are the real issues. This issue does not deserve to be one of the main headline news items, sorry it is not.
Our news needs to question the problems which exist in our society today and look to fixing them instead of highlighting celebrity trivia or dramatic nonsense each night.
Sorry to the McGraths, my argument is not about your grief and suffering it is simply about what is news and what the issues should be.
Love it when the media brainwashers gang up on me. When will you all realise it is significantly diverse media or lack of it which is running this country into the ground and in the process destroying our thinking.
Henry Kissinger on Lateline- Nobel peace prize for bombing with agent orange the crap out of Cambodia and Vietnam.
Next Nobel Peace Prize- Geoge Bush for saving Iraq?
marky, The McGraths deserved to have both leaders there. One was a role model and the other a great inspiration.
Why shouldn’t politicions go to funerals of well deserving and respected celebrities? It is absolute nonesense to believe major issues are being put on hold!
Marky Marky, have you ever stopped to think that people turn up at a funeral like that because they care? it’s showing that they respect the person who died, i know that Rudd has gone to the bedside of sick or dying people he has respect for without any fanfare, he visited Matt Price in the middle of the election campaign and rang him to give him the election results the night before he died, it was done on the quiet, until it was ferreted out last xmas nobody knew he has served up meals for the homeless every xmas for years, i think thats what makes him seem more human to folks, he doesnt mind getting his hands dirty or quietly doing menial tasks for others, what a difference to Nelsons pretend sympathy or his loudly proclaiming sitting in the gutter with someone, the fact that he announced it to the journos makes it worthless.
sometimes someone coming and telling you what that person meant to them –be it just giving them courage to keep on going can give you an immense amount of peace.
when my boy was buried his pals got together and held a good old fashioned Irish wake at my home, there was this very old lady i had never seen before sitting in the corner, when everybody got up, one after the other to tell a little story about Alan, this old lady stood up, in a quavering voice she told us her story, aparently one pension day she was at Parabanks struggling with her fortnights groceries, she lived too near to the shops to get a taxi home, about 4-5 blocks i think, as she put her bags on the footpath to rest a minute a lad yelled “hey gran, ya wanna hand” he carried her things all the way home for her, every pension day after that he’d religiously line up after school to carry her things home, he refused any reward, well that old lady gave him his reward, she gave me, his mum, something very precious to hold in my heart forever, Alan was no angel–in fact as a child of his times he could be a loud little yahoo, {very, very, mild by todays standards} but that was something i never knew about him.
Marky – you could have made exactly the same point without being offensive – there are lots of other examples (other than funerals) of pollies etc hanging out with celebs.
However, what you also have to realise is that BECAUSE people are celebrities, who meets with them is considered newsworthy.
Brendan Nelson talks of sitting in the gutter with someone in Kings Cross at 3 am in the morning. (I know it’s easy to make fun of that, I have, but…). We don’t know who it was. The media didn’t think that worth reporting.
Kevin Rudd visited the homeless on Christmas morning. Again, it didn’t get the same headlines his visiting Cate and her baby did.
I would also dispute your claims that pollies don’t care about real people or their problems. For most of them, that’s what politics is about – it’s a means to an end.
You go through this absurd game, juggling factions, creating alliances, handing out HTVs, door knocking etc just to get yourself into a position where you can do some real good for people.
I can say with absolute honesty that until I became involved with politics, I was self absorbed. People’s problems were abstract, they weren’t mine.
My involvement with politics has resulted in me being a far more compassionate, caring person. I’ve saved people’s lives (no exaggeration); I’ve made people’s lives easier in real, practical ways; I’ve visited the sick and the mentally ill. Importantly, I’ve been prepared to listen to people tell me their stories.
Some of this started out as self interest, but it’s not why it’s continued.
For me, the buzz of politics is not the media interest and the newspaper headlines (they can be fun) but being able to help people solve problems.
So what great things did Glen McGrath do for the community centre other than in sport? I am also a cricket fan and agree he was a great cricketer perhaps near the top of being one of best fast bowlers but sport and poltics should not mix.
Real issues were no doubt not put on hold, i was being sarcastic, my argument was about the type of issues which our pollies care about and it seems trivial issues matter more. Why can’t our news bulletins should how builders are ripping of people no more important to have some fast bowler on the news who only sports nuts know exists.
I would have thought that highlighting cancer and the need for breast checks, regardless of age (which the Jane McGrath story has done) was of at least equal importance to shonky builders, a story which could be run not only every day of the week but indeed, for every day of the last thirty years.
Judy, you’ve now got me wiping tears off my keyboard. It’s those little things that matter, isn’t it? Your son could not have imagined how important that little gesture of kindness would be to you.
marky I will refer to your 164 with my 161.
Oh no, the water works are starting, I’m out of here!
Night guys
This is a line from Mark Latham’s book the Latham Diaries page 17 in a brillant introduction
if the media were to promote solutions to society’s problems they would have very few stories left to report. A happy society full of good news does not sell newspapers or secure ratings. So too, the media have a commerical interest in the denigration of politics, presenting it as just another form of conflict and scandal in society to feed the publics voyeurism. Like all big businesses, their interests lie in preserving the status quo and the ruling institutions and culture that sustain their profitability.
This sums up my argument about the Funeral.
I love politicians Zoom who jump from one faction to another to get a seat, and i love it when those pollies give themselves a hefty pay rise every year whilst the average worker goes without.
Some pollies care yes but it is not universal.
Politics is about spin and photo opportunities and getting headlines. It is also about ego and power and yes they try to do things but just look how they knife each other and criticise one another.
that is my bloomin lot.
Marky Marky, it’s not up to the media to promote solutions to society’s problems, it’s up to each and everyone of us to do what we can–no matter how small, women came forward today to attest that they’d had themselves checked out at Jane’s very public urgings, they were found to have the disease and were now surviving, even if by her urgings she’s saved one life then she’s earned the respect she has been shown, i honestly believe some things were meant to happen to bring about some events, call it the law of karma if you will and some people are meant to trigger them off, i believe Jane may be one of these people, whatever! if Rudd decided to show her respect good luck to him.
bugga i promised myself i wouldnt go off on a rant on this site again, perhaps i’d better slink away and keep my big mouth shut!
Of course if you believe you can make a difference you will do everything you can to make it. If you truly believe that you’re the best person to make these changes, you will be ruthless about getting into a position to change them.
One of the hardest numbers men in the business is a very good friend of mine. His cutthroat attitude was born of the realisation that, to do the things he wanted to do, he had to have ‘the numbers’.
So he has this image of being totally ruthless, almost inhuman, and is loathed by large sections of the Labor Party.
In reality, he is one of the nicest people I know, who does a lot of good in quiet, unmentioned ways (which is how I think he likes it to be).
Dreaming of changing the world is lovely but dreaming by itself doesn’t get you anywhere.
It is egotistical, of course, to think that you can make a difference and that noone else can, but it’s also often a realistic assessment of the situation. (I don’t believe at present that Obama will make as good a President as Hillary, precisely because he isn’t willing to get down and be dirty; he isn’t ruthless enough to be able to override the system. I think that’s why Hillary fought to the end).
If you don’t believe that all politicians are driven by ego or power mad, then don’t use sweeping generalisations. A qualifier such as ‘most’ or ‘I believe’ or ‘My understanding is…’ takes a nanosecond to add and shields you from unwarranted criticism.
If I can weigh in on this… I had a cancer scare a few years back. I was getting sicker and sicker for no apparent reason, but was cared to find out the truth by going for a full checkup via an expensive procedure.
Kylie Minogue was diagnosed with breast cancer at the same time. I’d never been a big fan. In fact I thought she was a bit of a joke. But the way she handled herself made me realise I was being stupid about my own health. I have to say – it’s actually a bit embarrassing – she inspired me to go and have that check up. My illness wasn’t cancer, but it was something (a serious internal infection) equally life-threatening that would have led to multiple organ failure within months, or possible a quicker route to the morgue via gangrene.
Having that test and a simple piece of day surgery as a follow-up literally saved my life, and, of all people, it was Kylie Minogue who gave me the gumption to do something about it.
I can see how Jane McGrath might have been a similar inspiration to other silent sufferers who finally decided to do something about their illnesses after seeing an interview with her or reading about her. Or perhaps she helped people who were in the same boat deal with an illness that, unlike mine, could not be cured and had to be faced.
At first I was prepared to sneer, but then did some digging around and discovered Jane McGrath had used her celebrity to do good things for others. To do what she did even while suffering from a painful secondary condition herself (bone metastases) was pretty admirable. So I put my sneers back in the Sneer Box I keep under my bed and said a quiet thank you for people like her, who give up what little time they have to go to the aid of others, even if from afar, and yes, even if the Telegraph and the tabloid TV shows turn it all into a circus.
A study has confirmed that media political bias is driven at least as much by profit as ideology. Too bad if it misleads voters at the ballot box:
Study: Media bias can net mistakes at the ballot box
CHAMPAIGN, Ill. — The media slant political news to the left or right to increase ratings and profits, spinning up an information vacuum that can lead to mistakes at the ballot box, a new study by three University of Illinois economists says.
Media bias has become increasingly profitable given a polarized electorate in which conservatives and liberals want news coverage that tilts toward their political leanings, according to the study by Dan Bernhardt, Stefan Krasa and Mattias Polborn.
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2008-06/uoia-smb062508.php
Did I hear correctly a media report that Nelson has said the ALP will win the gippsland byelection? He really is a master of lowering expectations. He already has Liberal supporters cheering rises in popularity to 17%!
Quick question for anyone out there – does anyone know when Cabinet is expected to meet today?
From the transcript:
“The voters in Gippsland go to the polls this weekend for a by-election. What do you consider will be a good result both for the Liberal Party and yourself as leader?
DR NELSON:
Well look, in this environment, seven months into government and whilst Australians are perhaps no longer starry-eyed about Mr Rudd and realising that he’s full of it, I think you would expect in this environment that the Government should win the seat.
QUESTION:
Will the Liberals come second?
DR NELSON:
Well, I’m not going to speculate on that. I can assure you it is very close. It’s very tough. Rohan Fitzgerald is the Liberal candidate there who’s been working very hard on the local issues – the Traralgon post office, the duplication of the Princes Highway, the Traralgon bypass, the Maffra Hospital. These are the issues that people are concerned about.
They’re very supportive of the Coalition’s five-cent cut in excise policy. There’s a lot of guys down there that are very angry about the extra taxes on Bundy and Cokes and mixers, and there’s a whole variety of issues locally that both the Liberal and National Party candidates are standing up for. And it’s interesting that the Labor candidate, who’s been imposed by Labor head office, the only thing that he’s clutching at is Mr Rudd. But it’s going to be really tough and you would expect in this environment the Labor Party would win the seat.”
Masterful argument. Australians are no longer starry eyed; our candidate has been working very hard on local issues, the ones that people are concerned about; they like our policy; the Labor candidate is useless….but the ALP will win.
Socrates, i hav’nt heard it but if anyone else has and has a link i’d be interested.
Bushfire Bill, well said, two mothers of murdered children here in little old Adelaide became friends, understanding what each other was going through when no one else seemed to, {i HATE and LOATHE someone patting you on the hand saying “i know how you feel” because they bloody well DONT!} anyway, realising how they supported and helped each other the idea was born of a victim self help group, at that time there was a couple of multiple murders going on in Adelaide, the mums pulled all stops out and ruthlessly used every contact they had made from the media, the police and the pollies,they roped in Ray Whitrod {who they had met throught a journo who had befriended one of them} Ray was ex commissioner of commonwealth police, New Guinea police and famous for resigning as commissioner of Queensland police because of the corruption he wasnt allowed to clean out there, Ray had recently retired back to Adelaide after the infamous Queensland stint, Ray at first was a bit reluctant to get involved because he thought no victim would have the stomach to join other victims and help themselves, he was bulldozed by these two very ordinary mums who wouldnt take no and so he became their groups public face, Victims of Crime was then born, it’s now a world wide organisation, Chris Summner a labor Attorney General eventually was drawn in and the rest is history.
SAPOL now hands out a victims phamplet at every crime scene and have victims laison officers to act as inbetweens, South Australia now has a commissioner of victims rights.
would those two middle class mums have thought their friendship in distress and their realisation that there was no help for victims whilst offenders have OARS, would they really have thought their supporting each other would make such a difference and ease the load of others following them?— i dont think so.
Judy
every post of yours humbles me in some way.
please keep posting as your heartfelt sentiments are shared by most here
Gus…we could form a Judy fan club!
zoom @ 171
Gaining and exercising power of any kind requires compromise and getting your hands dirty. Always has, always will.
“Only the impotent are pure.” G. Whitlam
Judy
Here is link to an ABC report of Nelson’s story on the ALP winning Gippsland:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/06/26/2286569.htm
He’s obviously trying to spin it as though retaining a seat that has never been held by Labor since Federation would somehow be a triumph! His very own Dunkirk.
Also, I join with Gusface in paying my sincere respects to your comments on positive responses to personal tragedy. I think that is a commendable approach.
#174,176
But we haven’t seen any leaked Coalition “Secret internal polling showing it’s gonna be close so you can’t afford a protest vote..blah blah”, which you’d expect them to drag out this week if they felt they were in any danger.
Oddly, there’s been no leaked polling from Labor either (showing, of course, an easy Coalition win). Either both sides suspect the Nationals will win comfortably, or nobody is really sure what will happen.
Still no result from the McEwen court of disputed returns. Justice delayed is justice denied.
Victims of Crime, now world wide, is a wonderful legacy of three very fantastic caring people now deceased, Ray Whitrod, Annemarie Mykyta the mother of Julie Mykyta from the Truro murders and Bob Whitington–at the time Bob was the chief crime reporter for the Advertiser,Bob was that rarity in journos, an honest caring humanitarian, he was an ex japanese POW and he took a bag of jelly babies wherever he went because they saved his life then {but thats another story} he volunteered to write and print the group’s newsletter in those days of no money and the group relying on the charity of Ray’s church group, he also shared an office with the “cane toad” and had nothing but conpempt for him even then, he had good taste did Bob, i’d like to think Bob would love this blog and have a whale of a time here.
Socrates, thanks for the link, it’s much appreciated, i honestly don’t think anyone expects labor to win Gippsland but a reasonably close contest would be nice.
Gusface and Zoom, the fanclub belongs to those people i named not me, also Chris Summner who took the idea of VOCS to a U.N. symposium of victims rights and from there to the world.
now you know why i’m an avid leftie, the libs didnt want to know about us and labor went way above the call of duty to help, when the last lib government was in, an ex prisoner rang me about the special treatment in Yatala V.E. was recieving from some of the guards,in fact he had his own fan club in there, i rang the then A.G. to inform him, i certainly recieved the bums rush, i was given the persona non grata treatment with bells on, he was far, far too busy to be bothered with someone as lowly as me, well Rann got labor back in and then the scandal broke–headlines all the way, the libs started heaping the blame on the Rann government trying to make hay — that is, until i emailed them, threatening to go public about their ignoring the warnings i tried to give them two years previously,surprisingly there was no more public bleating from them.
watching QT from the senate
some obs
Steve fielding is pushing the petrol issue? asking why labor has increased its take of the tax component-der bonehead !
Is barnaby related to the heiferman both have that bowlegged 1000 yard stare about them
labor is very smooth in responding to the fibs-the fibs are really showing signs of irrelevance
IMHO Sen Evans is a standout performer-he should do more TV
I heard on the radio QT from the House Of Reps!
Rudd was in good form today, the opposition, or as I like to call them “the Flopposition”, were dreadful! Nelson is all over the shop when it comes to climate change & emissions trading!
The more Julie Bishop adopts her high and mighty attitude in QT the worse she looks.
From the online Daily Telegraph:
“THE Rudd Government is collecting $1.7 billion a day from a tax on alcopops that may never be legal, now senators are threatening to block it.
And it is unclear whether consumers, forced to pay the $1 a bottle tax, can be reimbursed if it is vetoed by Parliament.”
Really, $1.7 BILLION a DAY in tax, why didn’t we think of taxing this one more before this? Are these journalists stupid or do they just think we are?
You’re right, Basil, it’s brilliant.
Who needs income tax or the GST? We’re on a real winner here!
Basil, Christ we’re a nation of alcho’s, that’s about a hundred alcopops per adult per day!
hiccup!
Possum, it’s your shout!
Lets double the alco-plops tax then we could have a two trillion dollar economy.
Now where did I put my 1.25 litre bottle of Bundy?
It’s in the Ute
Thanks Bas, Now where did I park the ute? hic
Alcohol tax. Pfft.
Make your own.
Re QT time today – I was watching and the quote of the day after the incessant “watching” questions was Rudd’s reply – Brendan I’d be watching my back if I was you mate, named a few others, and threw in, and you too Joe, you’ve been a very naughty boy
Just Me
You got that right!
What also got me is that Rudd said “Brendan” not the Leader of the Opposition as protocol dictates, and also “Joe” not the member of North Sydney – Rudd wasn’t pulled up
Rudd wasn’t pulled up
Ah, the last day of term
183 “Still no result from the McEwen court of disputed returns. Justice delayed is justice denied.”
It has gone back to the Federal Court in Melbourne last I heard Phil. There was a hearing last month so a decision can’t be far away.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_McEwen
This was the latest judgement I can find from the Federal Court on 22 April 2008. The case has been back to court since then.
http://www.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/sinodisp/au/cases/cth/federal_ct/2008/426.html?query=Mcewen
Jovial Monk 199
He he.
Sooo, how many are game for the U.S. threads over the winter recess? And how will The Piping Shrike’s analysis of what’s happening in the LNP play out?
Probably showing my ignorance, but did the Senate pass the budget bills or not?
I’m not sure how many got passed or shoved into committee review…actually, that’d be a good line to run apropos the attack on Rudd of wanting to set up process/committees to review stuff. They certainly sent enough stuff off for review to be annoying. The removal of inequities for same sex couples being one, on the basis you should include spinster sisters living together. Good grief. The Alcopops one as well, I think. I’m so looking forward to the appearance of the esteemed Shadow Minister for teh Environment on Q&A.
Crikey doesnt see Nelson lasting the winter break AND it seems that they think that lord lunchalot will be leaving parliament at last, looks like the break may not be boring after all.
Dear Sole Subscriber,
As we come to the end of the last week in Parliament before the winter recess, we farewell what was once a bold experiment in Australian politics, an attempted fusion of Left and Right, an effort to join the heart and the head in a political package that would reflect the best traditions of Australian politics. The experiment ultimately proved a failure, undone by an inability to find a path between conservatism and liberalism, but not before it provided some great copy and some hilarity at its foibles and emotionalism.
Yes, it’s time to farewell Brendan Nelson.
Today, all things being equal, will be Brendan’s last effort in the Leader’s chair. It’s been a wild ride, but he has left his mark on Australian politics, and we pray that, once Malcolm Turnbull assumes his place, he remains on the Coalition frontbench, from where we can enjoy his fury and deep anguish at the many outrages of the Rudd Government.
Oh, and the Democrats are finishing up, too, and probably Alexander Downer. And a bunch of others senators. But the one we’ll miss most is the one, the only, Emo Man.
Judy, I feel your pain.
Emo Men are equal too. They have to cope with grocery prices, rising interest rates whilst trying to fill up their ute and knocking back a Bourbon and coke. Why, I met an Emo Man at the petrol station last week, who was trying to decide whether he should fill up his ute, buy a rump steak or a couple of Bacardi Breezers.
And Emo Men across Australia are making decisions like this every day.
I challenge Mr Rudd to sit in a gutter with an Emo Man at 3 am in the morning and tell him that his Bacardi Breezers are less important than visiting Cate Blanchett’s baby.
204 Just Me.
After yesterdays Katherine replacement for Fay Miller, I hear the CLP announced the preselection of another candidate today this time for Brennan.
Must have been inspiring cause there has been no media whatsoever on him.
zoom, pmsl, you’ve made my night.
I just finished watching Q&A!
Bill Shorten is damn impressive, future Prime Ministerial material, he certainly should get promoted to the ministry when Rudd has a reshuffle!
I didn’t mind Greg Hunt too much either tonight!
Tim Blair however I can do without!
dartboard
Yeah, the CLP are about as inspiring as the federal Coalition.
What do you think the seat spread will be after the next election?
The CLP may regain a seat or two outside of the so called Berrimah line, but I can’t see any big shift in the political balance.
There simply is not any serious problems for the government, the economy is going very well, there are no scandals… The council amalgamation issue was not handled well, but it has settled down and is not a major vote changer. Crime is on the agenda (it is about all the CLP has to run on), but again I can’t see it producing a CLP government. Clare Martin staying on as leader could have been a major problem, but that has been resolved with the remarkably smooth transition to Paul Henderson, (and credit to Martin for going quietly, it could have been bloody).
Henderson comes across very well. Somebody I know who gave frequent technical advice to him until recently, said he is smart and sensible, takes on board advice, and takes a fairly conventional political and economic line, so will not upset many people.
There is no meat for the CLP to dig its campaign teeth into, and I don’t just hear any serious political talk or grumbling about the place, let alone talk of change. The previously oft invoked CLP bogeyman of untried ALP government in the NT has been vanquished, it turns out they can do the job just as well as the CLP. Surprise, surprise.
I think the truth in the NT is that if the economy is doing well, then generally speaking most voters couldn’t care less who governs.
Anyone who is interested in a basic outline of geothermal plant and future plans can take a look at this presentation by geodynamics
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080626/pdf/319tzt30p09wlz.pdf
Progressive, i’ve never seen Shorten at up close before and like you i was impressed, he took it all in his stride with a bit of wry sense of humour and didnt try to flub or duck once, Hunt was a bit better, he seemed more relaxed and open, hmm, i wonder if facing the formidable Kerry could have caused his disasterous performance before, if so he’ll have to get over that quick smart, once a pollie seems a dill it’s awfully hard to dispell that impression–Esmeralda never will be able to undo the persona many of us cant stand.
It’s the long winter break and I think I had better go out for a spell as well. This blog is getting to addictive lol.
I will go out on this – yes Bill Shorten is a serious act and could be capable of leading the Labor Party in future. But so could Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Lindsay Tanner and even Chris Bowen. There is so much talent in the labor side.
The Liberal Party have got ———————————well the Liberal Party have got —————————aaaaaaahhhhhhhaaahhhaahhaahhaahhahahah.
THe great destruction of Howard Sattler is taking place over at The Worst Of Perth – It seems Howie doesn’t like having the piss taken out of him
Gory details here
http://theworstofperth.com/2008/06/10/fax-it-west/#comment-7545
Newsweek discussing their polls after some criticism. Is the USA but the issues are relevant to here.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/143258
I know this might seem inconsequential to a lot of people but the following link just really makes me sad about politics in general:
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,23927870-421,00.html
I find it really sad that Malcolm Turnbull would seek to rubbish a person for doing something as decent and well needed as looking after the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat… one of the world’s most endangered animals, recently listed at #2 on the critically endangered list, behind the Yangtze River Dolphin.
Mr Turnbull should be hanging his head in shame at the fact that in his time as Minister for the Environment and Water Resources he did NOTHING to aide the cause of the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat. It is an animal that desparately needs all the assistance it can get and is facing incredible odds.
I’m not a letter writer usually but am seriously considering writing to the Shadow Treasurer to explain to him the disgust his comments have made to me.
For everyone else out there… please do yourself a favour and spend a bit of time researching the Northern Hairy-nosed Wombat. Not many people know of it and it’s very sad to learn of its plight.
New Morgan thread up.