Introducing another round of comments action in the endless US presidential election campaign. Participants are encouraged to try their luck in the IRC room:
Reflections on the Miracle of Democracy at Work in the Greatest Nation on Earth
Presidential election minus 19 weeks
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2,113 Comments
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How Democrats Could Turn Texas Into the Blue Star State.
The very notion of Texas Democrats glimpsing daylight–of America’s biggest chunk of Republican real estate being shaded pink on the ‘08 election map–seems almost absurd, a contradiction in terms, even to those who are making it happen. Like many of the nuevo pols, bloggers and progressive activists who are constructing a state-of-the-art Democratic machine in Texas, Glazer and Berthume are too young to remember the last time skies were blue for the party that ruled Texas politics from Reconstruction clear through to Reagan/Bush. So is Burnt Orange publisher Karl-Thomas Musselman, who’s 23. “The last time Democrats won my hometown”–a small outpost in the central Hill Country–”was 1964,” he says. “And that was only because President Johnson brought the chancellor of Germany to Fredericksburg for a visit.”
***
Just when we were discussing this the other day. Pollbludger leads te way.
http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080721/moser
The gap is widening again.
General Election: McCain vs. Obama
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
This Rasmussen study on electoralvote is interesting. They categorised voters based on their fiscal and social leanings as either conservative, moderate or liberal. Then they asked them who they’d vote for out of Obama and McCain.
Socially conservative voters (who were fiscal moderates) were much more likely to vote for Obama than fiscal conservatives (who were social moderates) by 40% to 25%.
To put it simply, Obama has more problems with the neocon type Repugs than the fundie-type Repugs.
2003 Diogenes Maybe thats why he put a little bit of tempation out for the religious vote.
On 14 January, I made the following post to the New Hampshire thread (http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/786?cp=all):
“Perhaps overconfident from my predicting Labor’s victory to within one seat in June of last year, I want to put on record some predictions re the US. I think John McCain will win the Republican nomination. If he doesn’t, the Republicans are not too bright. (I know saying that has created an opening.)
“The Democrat nomination will depend on John Edwards. I think Hilary Clinton will finish first, Barack Obama second and John Edwards third. The questions will then be:
1) To whom will John Edwards release his delegates – Senator Clinton or Senator Obama?
2) Will the vice presidential nomination be his price?”
I was right about John McCain and wrong about Hilary Clinton
Edward St. John asked me on another thread who I thought would win in November. I replied that I had not predicted the Australian election until June, so I would leave it until the same month for the US one. I’m a bit late, but, just for the record, I think Barack Obama will win because, while I see him as full of Amway rhetoric, he will get formerly disengaged voters to the polls and the theme of “Change” will carry him across the line. I realise that my perspective is based on Australian news reports and there may be a lot more to the man than we read here.
McCain struggles to regain footing.
John McCain calls himself an underdog. That may be an understatement. The GOP presidential candidate trails Democrat Barack Obama in polls, organization and money while trying to succeed a deeply unpopular fellow Republican in a year that favors Democrats.
McCain also doesn’t seem to have a coherent message let alone much of a strategy despite securing the nomination three months earlier than Obama.
http://www.miamiherald.com/political-currents/story/594571.html
The Facebooker Who Friended Obama.
Mr. Hughes, 24, was one of four founders of Facebook. In early 2007, he left the company to work in Chicago on Senator Obama’s new-media campaign. Leaving behind his company at such a critical time would appear to require some cognitive dissonance: political campaigns, after all, are built on handshakes and persuasion, not computer servers, and Mr. Hughes has watched, sometimes ruefully, as Facebook has marketed new products that he helped develop.
“It was overwhelming for the first two months,” he recalled. “It took a while to get my bearings.”
But in fact, working on the Obama campaign may have moved Mr. Hughes closer to the center of the social networking phenomenon, not farther away.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/technology/07hughes.html
Why some conservatives are backing Obama.
The “Obamacans” that Sen. Barack Obama used to joke about – Republican apostates who whispered their support for his candidacy – have morphed into a new phenomenon, or syndrome, as detractors like to call it: the Obamacons.
These are conservatives who have publicly endorsed the presumptive Democratic nominee, dissidents from the brain trust of think tanks, ex-officials and policy magazines that have fueled the Republican Party since the 1960s. Scratch the surface of this elite, and one finds a profound dismay that is far more damaging to the GOP than the usual 10 percent of registered Republicans expected to switch sides during a presidential election.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/07/06/MN3T11JI0P.DTL
Chris B,
careful with the cut and paste mate. You might get an out-of-the-blue bitch-slap from William like the one i copped last night.
It’s a minefield my friend.
20 or 144?
OBL here http://thinkprogress.org/2008/07/05/bin-laden-144-oil/
Dirty Digger here http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2003/feb/11/iraqandthemedia.news
LOL!
2009 Optimist. I got one once before. We are covered under the fair use policy, which is used internationally. I am a bit puzzled as to why.
Unless you didn’t credit or link properly.
Today’s picks:
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55653
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55762
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55796
http://editorialcartoonists.com/cartoon/display.cfm/55831
Jen, no probs. If we don’t get an ace caser prepared to scout out a venue in Sydernee, to the original plan we’ll revert. Will give things a couple of days to play out before tabling a call to action re specifics .
The “known knowns” at this stage are that it’s a goer for sure, the date and the time. The “where” is the only “known unknown” at this particular point going forward in the fullness of time at the end of the day:)
Ron, enjoyed your 1991 post and concur with Dio on your dialectic thrust. Pelosi’s Dems are doormats, absolutely weak as piss.
As that silver-quilled and acid-tongued patrician, Gore Vidal, once opined:
“there’s only one party in America today, with two wings, the conservative wing, known as Democrats, and the reactionary wing, known as Republicans.”
Way the present action is unfolding, the crotchety old brahmin mightn’t have been too far off the mark.
CodgY at 2010: {20 or 144?}
So that’s a score for sure followed by the full gross, right?
Chris, it’s a well accepted item of blog etiquette that one does not monopolise boards with huge numbers of comments, as you were doing the other day. Copyright had nothing to do with it.
2014 William Bowe Yes, and as I said I got carried away. So whats Optimist on about?
William (and I’m asking in the nicest way possible),
any chance you could give me an idea as to why you made your comments at #1967 about my post at #1963 ?
I detailed my puzzlement with that at #1980.
Just trying to get a better sense of things.
Ron suffers from a type of dyslexia, so your comment amounted to ridicule of a disability even if you didn’t mean it to. Ditto Catrina’s comment a few weeks ago (an episode which had the excellent unintended conseqence of ridding this site of Andrew). Nor do I allow racism, misogyny or ridicule of religious beliefs. I’m surprised you were called a dickhead – my moderation filter picks this word up and I only let it through on special occasions. I’m not surprised you were called a moron – my filter doesn’t pick that up, I don’t read every comment on the US threads, and I take a laissez-faire approach with them in any case.
William-
that was fantastic (”I’m not surprised you were called a moron”)…hastening to add dear Optimist that you are most certainly not one iMHO.
As for Ron- I do appreciate the dyslexia and his amazing determination to blog on regardless. However – he does use lots of insults and even the odd threat on occasion even if they are spelled wrongly and others do get a whack for the same thing at tiimes.
Anyhow- it’s your call.
And what coming to the election party???? We might be much less tedious in the flesh.
Then again…
Fair point Chris Curtis.
In my opinion the election will be decided in
Virginia
Ohio
Colorado
McCain needs to win all three. I am assuming Indiana will come home for McCain.
At this stage I can see Virginia coming home for McCain but the other 2 look very tough.
Diogenes given that North Carolina looks safe for McCain can I suggest instead Henry Kissinger “Diplomacy” for you?
Jen,
You self-righteous hypocrite.
EStJ
I didn’t mean “I’m not surprised you were called a moron” that way. If Ron ever “threatened” anybody, I didn’t see it. Garden variety abuse of other commenters is not banned on the US threads.
William Bowe at 2017
You do know that dyslexia is not an disability?
Or was that momentary misspeaking?
Maybe I meant disorder. Who cares, you know what I mean. Back on topic please.
A quick Google reveals that “State and Federal anti-discrimination laws consider dyslexia a disability”.
ESJ comes to mind.
Edward darling- where’s Tabitha tonight- Gagged?
(And I actually have never threatened to burn a fellow blogger’s house down- yet-
so I don’t think I’m a hypocrite.)
William – I believe you didn’t mean it that way , but it was pretty funny.
Yes, comment 2020 was well timed.
Thanks Catrina.
I was subjected to very catty abuse on this site but I have taken it in my stride.
OK-
point taken.
I’ll try and be sweeter than light.
So Eddy, I’m sure Tabitha is not being mistreated and I apologise for any suggestion to the contrary.
xx
Aims of Democrats Reach Beyond the Oval Office.
Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee-apparent, has started a broad approach to the general election against the presumed Republican candidate, Senator John McCain. Exploiting his fund-raising edge, Mr. Obama has pledged to run campaigns in all 50 states, many of them well-fortified Republican redoubts.
Mr. Obama’s initial 18-state advertising campaign underscored the point. It touched improbable targets like Alaska (Republican. victory margin in 2004: 25 percentage points) and North Carolina (Republican margin: 12 percentage points, despite the presence of former Senator John Edwards, a North Carolinian, on the Democratic ticket).
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/us/politics/07caucus.html
Name Is Double-Edged as Two Udalls Run for Senate.
Representatives Tom and Mark Udall possess one of the most famous political names in the West, one virtually synonymous with protecting the region’s spectacular natural resources from overuse and exploitation.
Their fathers, the brothers Stewart L. and Morris K. Udall, used their own federal power more than a generation ago to set aside millions of acres of public land for national parks, wilderness areas and wildlife refuges. The sons embraced the family conservation ethic upon simultaneously winning House seats in 1998 and now emphasize that approach in their unusual cousinly quest for open Senate seats.
“We are not opposed to good sound development, but there cannot be carelessness and recklessness in the use of resources,” said Tom Udall, 60, who is running in New Mexico while Mark Udall, 57, campaigns in neighboring Colorado.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/07/us/politics/07udall.html
Where the Race for the White House Stands Right Now.
With just about four months to go until Election Day, the national political landscape continues to favor Democrats strongly. Indeed, almost every bit of national- level data reflects problems for the Republicans.
Voters give President Bush a failing grade. And to a large extent because of that, they have a better opinion of the Democratic Party than they do of the GOP. Not surprisingly then, those same voters see Democrats as better able to handle almost every issue, including taxes and fiscal responsibility, on which the Republicans have traditionally had a significant advantage.
For months, even for years, the national news has been bad, so it’s not surprising that voters want change. All of the numbers strongly suggest that Americans see the Democratic Party as the better vehicle for bringing about change than the Republican Party.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/07/where_the_race_for_the_white_h.html
Chris, why are you doing the exact thing I asked you not to do?
ESJ
NC is still in play. Talking of Kissinger (and Nixon earlier) I’ve bought “Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power” by Dallek. On a quick skim-through, it’s assessment of Nixon doesn’t seem to quite a chipper as Conrad Black’s.
I note that William has pointed out that unacceptable conduct includes ridicule of a disability, racism, misogyny or ridicule of religious beliefs. I can almost feel the Sword of Damocles rubbing against my neck.
William,
thanks for clarifying. As I said in #1980, if I genuinely insulted or offended Ron, then I am truly sorry.
Just one more thing though. Is there more than person on PB who identifies themselves as Ron? The reason that I ask is that if you go back a few months, you’ll see that Ron’s posts are relatively well written (in terms of text, spelling, grammar and logical sequence of words) and show no signs of dyslexia (actually, it would be dysgraphia as it relates to writing rather than reading text).
I realise it sounds a bit pedantic, but I don’t like to think of myself as someone who would deliberately insult someone like that and I’m a bit disturbed at being singled out for doing so, if it is not necessary.
For instance, a quick search shows comment 17 here, back in April:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/840?cp=all
There is a marked difference to say Ron’s #1132 on this thread.
Is it an assumption that Ron has dysgraphia or is that what he has said?
2033 William Bowe I have only put three. You did ask me to limit them.
William. May we have some guidelines?
At least their hasn’t been constant abuse on the US election section today.
CB & Oppy, don’t really like James Bronson movies but there is one notable exception, “Hard Times” aka “The Streetfighter”. It’s a combination of factors, I suppose: Bronson wearing a Depression era cap, his soft spot(s) for a stray cat, a hooker with the proverbial heart of gold, and a med school drop-out opium addict played brilliantly by Strother Martin, who nevertheless does a passable job as a post-fight patch-up artist. Oh yes, it’s set in New Orleans, a city whose History and music has much resonance avec moi, monsieurs.
But that’s tangential to the character in the film that you two fine lads remind me of so compellingly, and that’s Spencer ‘Speed’ Weed (James Coburn) who becomes bareknuckeman Bronson’s manager. You’ll find it up the back of your favorite Vid store gathering dust. Anyway, re the recent exchanges with WB, I’m sure you’ll join the dots.
Please don’t misunderstand me. This is not a sledge or a slight, very much enjoy both of your Sep thread contributions, but the flick’s definitely worth a squiz. By all means, tell me to get knicked, but I’ve a notion that you’ll rather enjoy it.
Chris, being as lenient as I know how to be, I can see that the first and third article might have been worth linking to – though preferably with some kind of input of your own to indicate that you yourself had actually read the thing. But who could possibly give a stuff about the NYT’s piece on the Udall brothers (cousins?)? I could only conclude you were trawling around for any old thing because you enjoy taking up space.
EC,
funny you should mention Strother Martin as it would seem that “what we have here…is a failure to communicate.”
p.s – You meant Charles Bronson right? Don’t forget “The Great Escape.”
Optimist –
not sure if you were around for the lowercase/Uppercase r/Ron discussion.
There was a significant change in both style and opinion. ie – support for Obama turned to absolute disgust. Whatever!
Anyway, we have all learned to live in an uncertain world . Or at least trying to.
Apparently i abuse peole although I really try not to (facetious yes; abusive – i try not to be – have not pressed Submit on many occasions. Obviously not enough!).
2040 William Bowe What? It is US election material. I reject a lot of material as it is irrelevant. Quite a number of people have said they enjoy my posts. Today their has been a distinct lack of people on this section, so I have refrained from adding any material.
I also read much more than I put up here.
I stand in admiration at your restraint, Chris. However, I asked you the other day not to cut and paste items like that. You would need to twist my words to within an inch of their lives to interpret anything I’ve said as meaning I wouldn’t be bothered by comments 2030 to 2032. Now stop whingeing and do as I ask. Last warning.
William,
Seeing that you’re around – could we start a new thread?
This one’s getting a bit long…
Diogenes,
Nixon was the dark master. Never to be repeated.
jen, do us a favour. bring back the first XI. many thanks.
Finns-
Don’t know what you mean.
You want Bradman?
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