The latest bi-monthly Newspoll survey of New South Wales state voting intention has the Coalition pulling ahead to a 52-48 lead on two-party preferred, after they trailed 51-49 in March-April. Morris Iemma’s ratings have worsened still further since the sobering results last time: his satisfaction rating is down two points to 26 per cent and his dissatisfaction is up seven to 63 per cent, while Liberal leader Barry O’Farrell has opened up a 39-32 lead as preferred premier – the first such lead for a New South Wales Opposition Leader since 1992. On the primary vote, the Coalition leads Labor 41 per cent to 32 per cent.
UPDATE: In comments, Antony Green says the headline of this post would read 54-46, but for the fact that Newspoll has “stuffed up the 2PP”:
In 2004 using gross 2PP preferences, of the 24% minor party and Independent vote, 26.9% flowed to Labor as preferences, 18.6% to the Coalition and 54.6% exhausted. Use those numbers then round the percentages up for the exhausted votes, you get a Liberal 2PP of 54%. However, say you excluded the exhausted votes. Then of those minor party and independent votes that had preferences, 59% flowed to Labor and 41% to the Coaltion. Apply those percentages to the minor party vote and you get a Coalition 2PP% of 52%. But that’s the wrong calculation method!!!
However, he also warns that two-party determinations in the context of a New South Wales state election are “meaningless”:
There were 22 of the 93 seats that did not finish as 2PP contests in 2007. On this poll’s primary figures, 27% with other parties and Independents, you can bank on 30 seats not being 2PP contests. On those primary results, Labor losing votes to the Greens would deliver the Liberals seats like Coogee on exhausted preferences even if the Liberal primary vote is unchanged. With optional preferential voting and a very low Labor primary vote, the Liberals get the advantage from exhausted preferences for the first time in two-party contests, and like 1988, you’ll see Labor lose votes in safe seats to Independents. And Labor losing votes to Independents in safe seats does nothing to aid the Liberal 2PP vote but hammers the Labor Party’s ability to campaign or end up with more seats than the Coalition.
88 Comments
That’s scary! Shutdown Turnoff O’Farrell leading in an opinion poll.
It took over a decade to the fix the train services after O’Farrell got hold of them in the Greiner era.
Fortunately, there is plenty of time for the voters to get to know him before the next election and ensure he doesn’t become Premier.
The other Barry thinks the train services have been fixed – that’s a laugh. I suppose voters are also asked to overlook the corruption and stink that surrounds the NSW labor Party. Get real.
Every government has its day.
Some would argue the NSW ALP Government had its day before the last election.
I can’t really see much of a reason to argue for keeping the NSW Government but the alternative is likely to have one regretting the change very quickly.
As far as this poll goes, it’s not particularly surprising. The Iemma Government seems to have very little going for it and O’Farrel is most certainly the least detestable leader the Liberal Party has come up with in its long time in Opposition.
The ALP should begin, in the next year or so, to look at planning a ‘get out of Opposition quick’ route should they lose the next election.
We in N.S.W are stuck with this government until 2011, there’s no getting round it! One hopes Iemma is removed sometime later this year, he takes Costa and some of the other deadwood with him, and a new Premier is installed, someone who at least can give Labor a chance to salvage some of the furniture before the ship completely sinks! John Watkins is probably the best option right now, that’s not saying much, but he at least performs better in the media than duddering Morris!
It’s remarkable it’s so close given the state of the government.
It says a lot about what the electors really think of the opposition, which is not much. For them to be just two points up means they will really have to start spelling out their policies in detail not just rhetoric and spin.
O’Farrell hasn’t convinced me to vote for him, I’ll vote for an Independent.
I live in a safe Liberal electorate on Sydney’s North Shore, it doesn’t matter who I vote for, but I’m seriously considering voting Green in 2011.
I think the government is terminal, we are stuck with them for another 4 years
The capable ones had left – Egan Debus,
We are left with the Costa, Dela Bosca, Iemma
The trains are the worst it had been, Hospital are worst than before, The toll roads are a disaster, whether it is the tolls or the Xcity tunnel
You have to be a one-eye Labor suporter not living in NSW to support them, there just has to be change
Interesting that Labor’s primary is at 32…yet they still translate into 48% TPP. With OPV, this poll probably flatters Labor somewhat, as I can’t imagine as many preferences flowing to them as last time. Against that, the Coalition will probably need 52% as an absolute minimum to win a majority- given the way the seats are drawn- so Labor could still fall over the line on these numbers.
But, you could argue the Liberals in N.S.W should be doing much better than 52:48! O’Farrell is perhaps holding them back! If they replaced him with Mike Baird(for instance), I think their ratings would be much higher!
The alternative for Labor is bringing back Carmel Tebutt to the front bench, even installing her in the leadership team. Nathan Rees and Verity Firth seem to be deserving of promotion, there are no doubt a few on the backbench who could be moved into the ministry! But, the situation for this government looks shockingly terminal!
May I suggest that much of the Government’s problems stem from the division and disunity surrounding the electricity sell off. Given that this matter will probably resolve itself in the next few months, there is plenty of time to change leader, white paint a few policies and basically show up the Libs for the bunch of brain dead, extreme right wing cretins they are.
Tamania recently changed their leader which has resulted in a 10% bounce in the polls.
People like to say and think things are terminal for Labor in NSW. But, the election is not till 2011. A long way to go.
The Piping Shrike @ 4:
What’s this? Almost intelligent commentary from the OO:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23918374-5013945,00.html
Numbers bad for Iemma, worse for Opposition
O’Farrell, temperamentally a pessimist, will be sobered by the fact that, even after a horror run, Iemma could win an election on these Newspoll numbers.
The conclusion from this Newspoll is inescapable – Labor is on the nose. But voters are not yet convinced the Coalition is fit to govern.
#10
You might be right, if the power sell-off was an isolated issue. Problem is there seems to have been one scandal after another for about two years. Iemma hasn’t had any clear air for this entire term, and nearly every senior minister has ‘baggage’. So I don’t know that dumping the leader, or just trying to ride the bad news out, will work anymore.
2011 will be harder for Labor to win than 2007, which they won mainly because the opposition was even worse. Of course, it’s possible the Liberals will implode once again, but if they present a half-competent face, I think the government is gone.
With optional preferential voting, a high level of primary support for the Greens and a (relatively) low level of primary support for the Australian Labor Party, I am wondering how reliable is the estimate of the 2PP vote in this Newspoll. I also agree with the analysis of MDMConnell @ Posts 8 and 12.
Too far out from the next NSW election to matter really but it does show Labor has work to do to regain the ascendency. Being the ruthless Labor machine of NSW such work will be well on the go long before 2011.
Gary, which means Iemma has to be punted eventually, but who do they replace him with? They really could do with a youthful fresh face, free of baggage,someone who is a good media performer too!
I think Imre Salusinszky in the OZ is going overboard in suggesting Labor in other states is also losing its grip. He mentions WA (LOL), Qld and the recent Galaxy Poll (LOL) and Tas (where a marked improvement has taken back) as examples. He maybe right about NSW but he’s drawing a long bow with the others.
I must admit, being a realist and knowing we won’t have all Labor governments in each state forever, having a coalition government struggling in NSW (quite possibly being a one term government) has its attractions. Parties need renewal and NSW Labor probably more so than any other government at the moment.
3 years and a change of Premier to go for the NSW libs… a long time between drinks.
18 John – sounding cocky John.
Posts 14 & 15
Both of you could be correct and most ALP supporters will think (or hope) so. Yet a turn in Opposition for the NSW branch might be the best thing for them since it will mean they have to refresh their depleted ‘talent’ pool and also reshape their perspective on the meaning of good and competent governance in the (once) ‘premier state’.
But the next election isn’t for another 3 years. Do we leave the same bunch of incompetents in place, assuming they’ll lose, so why bother? Or is there at least some attempt to provide vaguely decent government until 2011?
My point is, why wait until opposition to cut out the deadwood and revitalise Labor’s talent pool? Do it now! There are some decent people on the backbench, even a few of Iemma’s ministers aren’t all bad!
Try 17 David. I tend to agree with you. By 2011 they will have governed for about 15 years I think. Probably past thier use by date, Still things can still happen in 3 years, good and bad for both sides.
If anyone thinks that the NSW ALP hard heads are interested in a short period of opposition to renew and refresh, then they are smoking and inhaling. The difficult decisions wil be made in good time before the next election is due.
23 Greensborough – that’s a given.
#8: There is no way the ALP can win government with a primary of just 32% and OPV.
Of course James you are assuming it will be that way next election. Not necessarily a correct assumption.
The NSW Labor government has been living on borrowed time for quite while now … from well before the last election. It is just that the Libs very kindly loaned them that time. If John Brogden had not imploded, the last state election in NSW would have been a close run thing. The Iemma government has too much baggage to survive past the next election, they were lucky to survive last time, the government is in a terminal state, and frankly they just can’t get it right. But, looking at the pendulum, I can’t see how a coalition majority government can be elected, close but not there, with a lot of independents holding the balance of power. The smart ministers would probably be thinking about jumping to canberra in 2010. Despite it being three years out, the NSW libs are probably starting to smell victory and once the momentum is there it will be hard to resist. Where the ALP need to be wary is that the NSW state party may drag them under in 2010.
On another point, I have often suspected that the ALP hard heads chose a 93 seat parliament on the basis that it was hard for them to lose – more votes locked in coalition safe seats compared to 99 or 109. Any thoughts?
Anyone writing off either party at this tage of the game is guessing at best and to think it will spill over into the federal sphere flies in the face of history. Howard stayed in power while his state mates lost powere in all states and territories.
I’m a member of the ALP, have been for about 12 years, honestly I couldn’t care less whether this mob is re-elected. I’m just glad I live in Queensland so I don’t have to make a desicion about supporting them, volunteering for them or even voting for them.
re Dovif @ # 7
Dovif,
Welcome Back.
I love your comments. You seem to have forgotten the Greiner and Fahey Governments.
TRAINS. As a regular train traveller, it is obvious that the train services in Sydney have vastly improved since Fahey was voted out in 1995. I have lived in Sydney for 27 years and the worse period for trains in that time was when Fahey was Premier. The timetable introduced in 1992 didn’t allow time for trains stop at stations to pickup and setdown passengers. The only way cityrail could operate the trains with that timetable was to skip scheduled stops everyday. On the line I live on, my morning service was usually cancelled “for today only” 4 days per week. The trains that did eventually stop to pick up passengers were so crowded that people ended up sitting on other peoples laps because there was no standing room left. The single deck red rattlers (built in the 1920s) that were still in use at this time had a lower carrying capacity than the double deck carriages that are used. The evening was even worse; there were no trains out of the city on the city circle lines after 8pm, even though the timetable claimed that trains ran until about midnight.
Here are some tips to refresh you memory.
1. Find a copy of the Christie Report into Railways and read about the rundown of periodic maintenance during that time. Google will find a copy this report.
2. Find some Sydney newspapers, such as the SMH, from 1992 and read about
the disastrous new train timetable. The expert imported from the UK had only worked on systems with rubber tyres and assumed that cityrail trains had the same short stopping distance. I haven’t able to find these through Google, so you may have to visit a library that archives old newspapers or a library that has FACTIVA database.
“Toll roads are a disaster”. I agree with you on this point. When the Greiner government converted the F4 Freeway to the M4 Motorway by placing a toll on it at Silverwater, the surrounding roads, Parramatta Rd, Victoria Rd, and James Ruse Drive became gridlocked.
The Liberal’s M2 Motorway was called the road to nowhere and was losing money when it first opened. It wasn’t until the Carr Government built the Gore Hill Freeway, did it become profitable. A northwest railway should have been built instead of the M2. I have long suspected that the M2 agreement has a clause preventing competition from a rail service for its first 20 years of operation.
I can assure have two eyes; would not consider myself to be a Labor supporter; and live in NSW and done so all of my life. In fact I was a financial member of one of the coalition parties for twenty years and handed out HTVs to get Greiner elected in 1988.
You may desire a return to coalition chaos, but count me out – I learn from my mistakes.
BTW: Just in case you think Barry “shut down turn off” O”Farrell had nothing to do with the Railway and Tollway shambles of the Greiner and Fahey years, he was Chief of Staff to Transport Minister, Bruce Baird, from 1988 to 1992.
#31 All fair enough but
a) People have short political memories- they didn’t dump all of the Wran/Unsworth baggage on Bob Carr in 1995. You can only drag out the ghosts of previous governments for so long.
b) Labor’s been in power for 13 years, which makes it a pretty long bow to lump existing problems onto anybody but them. Changing from Carr to Iemma allowed them to pull off the “We’re starting to get on with the job” line one more time in 2007, but surely not any more? And you can’t blame Nick Greiner for such delights as the Cross city tunnel.
If this was a government going for its second, or even third, term this wouldn’t be so bad. I just feel that constant scandal + 16 years in power (by 2011) + no John Howard to kick around anymore + general ‘it’s time’ factor + half-decent opposition (maybe?) makes it very tough indeed to turn around.
Barry
My train is delayed at least once a week,
I have been stucked on a train for 3 hours without moving because the state government had not fixed Signal stations are not lighting proved.
3 years ago, they cancelled 4 services an hour, now they tell us that they are giving us 2 back, becuase the trains are OVERCROWDED, isn’t it amazing? populations grows
Train on my line takes 6 more minute to get to the city today (I live 20 min to city) than 10 years ago (same amount of stop), because the government want to report more train is on time
The unionized work force was found to be the most inefficient in the world, worst than the like of Brazil, Thailand etc. So now fare will rise 15% this year to cover their wages
Keep living in your utopia under labor, while the rest of us live in the real world
Keep
Whenever people talk about NSW being the first Labor government to fall fail to mention that it’s the most recent state/territory government to face an election, and won’t face the polls again until 2011. So if the ALP is safe from any serious risk of election defeat for just under three years, they’re doing pretty well, regardless of bad polls in NSW.
Barry
At least the Liberal government did some infrastructure work in their 8 years, let see what Labor has done in 15?
the M4 and M5 rebate will cost about 95 bn, meaning we have no money to upgrade the M4, the split bridge or any other infrastructure work
M5 east – M5 was built with the ability to become a 6 lane road , the M5 east tunnel was late and can only ever be a 4 lane road. The harbour bridge was built to cater for future expansion, people that long ago had some foresight, I guess Labor know that NSW had stop expanding
X city tunnel, almost gone broke, no one uses it, toll too high, government being sue, great work.
Normally if a government does nothing, no infrastructure work, they cannot complain about the faults in the work. That is the only thing this incompetent government had done in 15 years. You are saying this is a good thing?
Better to get the news from the electorate now than 12 months out from an election.
I just love reading Barry’s comments. I suspect he is really Barry Unsworth in disguise. I doubt there is anyone that lives in NSW who actually thinks the rail and roads in NSW have improved in the last 13 years.
If Barry thinks the electorate is going to remember or care what Greiner and Fahey did 16 years ago (this is how long it will be in 2011), I think he is living in Pixieland.
I also don’t buy the argument that the ALP can bring in a new face and be reelected in 2011. You usually get one chance to do this. Iemma was that chance. The ALP would not only have to get rid of Iemma, they would need to get rid of Costa, Della Bosca, Tripodi, Sartor, Meagher et al. This government has the smell of death about it and it is not going to improve over the next 3 years.
Contrary to what others are saying a 52:48 result in favor of the opposition 3 years out from an election is bad news for the government. They’ve hemorrhaged 4% since the March 2007 state election. From now on, it is more than likely that they will continue to descend while the Libs do the converse. I’ll put money on Labor going down in NSW, big time.
PJ #12, I didn’t think that piece was too bad. But I still think the media make out Iemma to be too much a victim of fate rather than actually driving much of it. He is intent on using the electicity privatisation to break from the unions as has happened in the other Labor states and I think the sacking of Della Bosca has helped towards this in the long run.
I see this as work in progress. Maybe its fantasy but I think he is now through the worst. The fact that the coalition can, even now, barely pull ahead, must make one wonder if the two party system is still operating.
stuart @ 37 :
There is at least one instance where the opening of a new road has made life a lot easier for me. I live in the outer west of Sydney and the M7 is just fantastic. I know you pay a toll but it cuts the time of the journey either north or south by a fair margin.
From my home in the west to the airport was a minimum of 75 minutes. With the M7 it is now only 40 minutes.
You can go on about how the government in NSW is so bad, but can anyone here tell me any detailed policies the opposition have released.? What are the solutions they are offering.? You can say that they will be better than what we have, but until you know exactly what they will be doing to solve these problems they have not convinced me to vote for them.
From a view outside NSW it seems the Lib party there is faction ridden mainly with the right vs hard right. People may not like Labor in NSW but they need to take a hard look at what the alternative is. What are their policies? Will they be able to implement the policies if elected given their factions? If it would be a moderate Lib Government and not sell off everything it can lay its hands on (like Kennett), it would probably be OK. I know the Electricity Privatisation is on the go now, but a Lib gov’t would not stop there.
O’Farrell may be able to present a better public image than his predecessors but it is policies and what the party stands for that is the most important. The party machine with all its rivalries will still be in control.
The Libs have to reform before they can govern properly. They seem to be like their Fed counterparts – trying to take a shortcut to power without willing to do the hard yards. They seem to be waiting for lemma to fall over rather than making themselves a viable alternative.
sondeo,
Good points. I also suggest that a lot of the alleged hopelesness of the Government relates to Sydney. Clearly, Sydney has been the destination of choice for many immigrants and basically may have reached the limits of what growth can be economically achieved.
At the last State election “The Terror” campaigned relentlessly against Labor but they got up. In the regions the anti Labor feeling is nowhere near as drastic.
I just think there needs to be a wider perspective than the inner suburban whingers that write for the papers.
GG @ 42 : A lot of the problems with the rail system affects the outer suburbs more due to the longer travel times….if a train is delayed then the commuter is delayed or late for work.
Where I work is a 35min, 26km drive by car. The same trip to go by public transport means a bus, train, change trains to different line, then another bus to work. Total time is over 90min from the time I leave home to when I arrive at work. When you compare 70min a day with 180min a day travel time you can see why people want to use their cars to get to work.
I think a lot of the anger aimed at the NSW govt is actually people feeling so much frustration with life in general. I may be wrong and this is only an opinion of mine from general observations and not any scientific research.
Frustration not from any single issue but the combination of many things. The cost of fuel up, the train was late again, fares to rise again, my bus was late ,my mortgage has gone up, the rates have gone up,the phone has gone up, water has gone up, I have to pay to wash my car or do it by by the bucket, food has gone up,you have to barricade your house, your kids have to be watched 24/7,we have druggies evrywhere……..etc
To some extent the MSM and in particular the “Daily Terrorgraph” plays on this frustration by sensationaliziing stories and themes that suit their agenda. I’d be interested to hear what others feel.
Folks, just ignore the 2PP figure. It is meaningless. There were 22 of the 93 seats that did not finish as 2PP contests in 2007. On this poll’s primary figures, 27% with other parties and Independents, you can bank on 30 seats not being 2PP contests. On those primary results, Labor losing votes to the Greens would deliver the Liberals seats like Coogee on exhausted preferences even if the Liberal primary vote is unchanged. With optional preferential voting and a very low Labor primary vote, the Liberals get the advantage from exhausted preferences for the first time in two-party contests, and like 1988, you’ll see Labor lose votes in safe seats to Independents. And Labor losing votes to Independents in safe seats does nothing to aid the Liberal 2PP vote but hammers the Labor Party’s ability to campaign or end up with more seats than the Coalition.
It will be like following a UK election, where some seats are Labor-Conservative contests, others are Labor-Liberal, and rural seats are Conservative-Liberal contests. That’s what the next NSW election will be, different party contests in different seats. On this poll’s primary votes, the Liberals would end up in a much better position than any analysis of 2PP would suggest.
The 2PP figure is just a book-keeping device that allows you to order seats on a 2PP axis. But it has nothing to do with the result of the election if the seats aren’t lined up on that axis in the first place.
Antony – slightly off topic (and I beg your indulgence here Billbowe):
For the benefit of other readers, there was a shindig in the circular city today, the Microsoft Politics and Technology Forum. Quite depressing all round – no streaming of the conference, it was a technological dead end zone. Matt Bai, the guest speaker, seemed to completely and utterly fail to understand the consequences of compulsory voting on the utilisation of the net for political activity, and for a forum that spoke a hell of a lot about political blogging, they didnt have a single political blogger on the panel… you sort of get the drift.
But thanks to the efforts of Nick Hodge with his webcam streaming to Ustream.tv via a bluetooth link to his phone (i.e. getting around the pure incompetence of the whole thing) – a few of us got to see the action… or what passed for it in glorious 320×200!
Suffice to say that in the second section, of which Antony was a panel member (with Messrs Hockey, Bartlett and Kate Lundy for a bit), well he thankfully stole the show.
The cracker line was when some Greens guy got up and started whinging essentially about political parties not being accountable – to which Antony interjected (re:The Greens) “How are you accounted for”.. noting that they weren’t actually in government, didn’t have any responsibility and weren’t really in a position to be throwing shit like that.
The poor guy never really recovered.
Made my day it did!
So congrats Antony – and it was nice to see you get the largest round of applause. And to think you were wondering why you were even there.
Thank Christ you were, because if you weren’t, I never would have gotten that hour of my life back (and I bloody well would have tried to).
I’d also say the 2PP on those primaries is 53.5%, NOT 52%.
At the 2007 election, Green preferences split 41% to Labor, 12% to Coalition and 47% exhausted. All other minor parties split 21% Labor, 27% Coaltion and 52% exhausted.
You apply those preferences and weight up for the exhuasted votes, the best estimnate of 2PP is 53.5%. Even just using the gross 2PP numbers I get 53%, so I don’t know what calculation Newspoll are using. I might give them a phone call tomorrow and give them some tips.
Actually Possum, talking to the guy afterwards, we were actually talking at cross purposes. He was talking about accountability in the sense of keeping Green supporters and members abrest of what their elected representatives were up to, where I was talking about it in the sense of responsibility for what comes out of the law making sausage factory.
It’s always easy to be pure and stick to principle when you’re in opposition, which is why i sniped at that point. I think Clover Moore has discovered that since she has been Lord Mayor of Sydney and has had to defend her own decisions rather than criticise others. But in the end, the point he was making about GreenBlog was a different one than I responded to.
Bloody hell Antony – now you’ve completely ruined it for me!
Was it just my peculiar 320×200 view of the thing, or was it really the case that quite a few people (with the notable exception of the actual pollies) didnt quite get the whole consequences of voluntary voting on technology use for politics generally?
I heard a rumor that the New South Wales government is planning to relax gun laws and why to appease the shooters party so to get the privatisation of power through the upper house. Pathetic politics and decision making on both fronts.
Oh dear, Newspoll have stuffed up the 2PP.
In 2004 using gross 2PP preferences, of the 24% minor party and Independent vote, 26.9% flowed to Labor as preferences, 18.6% to the Coalition and 54.6% exhausted. Use those numbers then round the percentages up for the exhausted votes, you get a Liberal 2PP of 54%.
However, say you excluded the exhausted votes. Then of those minor party and independent votes that had preferences, 59% flowed to Labor and 41% to the Coaltion. Apply those percentages to the minor party vote and you get a Coalition 2PP% of 52%. But that’s the wrong calculation method!!!
This poll is 2% better for the Coaltion than reported, though I still stick by my earlier point that 2PP analysis misses the point in analysing swing.
I think the NSW “fix” is alreay well and truly on. My money is on Iemma resigning after electricity privatization is done and dusted and the current factional control of the political wing destroyed.
Didn’t anyone notice that Iemma just ignored the 7 to 1 conference vote against the privatization. And that one of the right faction heavy weights has been sidelined over eating arrangements (there was no need for Rudd to comment and then comment again).
No if I was still a Liberal party supporter I wouldn’t be getting to excited. As an outsider looking in I can only but admire how politically savvy the current labor crowd are; heck they even have the Liberals and the press doing their dirty work when it comes to politically destoying the factional bosses.
As for Jilian Gillard, boy I’d hate to be on the wrong side of a fight with her.
Charles, don’t bet on the Liberals backing the sale once all the financial numbers have been crunched. The numbers quoted to me are that if they get less then $15b, it ain’t worth selling as you would make more from the present value of the current stream of profits. If you don’t get the right price, the financially prudent thing to do is keep the asset and run it down over time, but grant licences for the private sector to build any new plants. The current plants have good long term and cheap coal costs which means they operate happily as base load, won’t be a financial risk, and the private sector get the finanacially riskier newer plants that sell into the national grid at variable price. As carbon trading comes in, the state government can eventually trade credits with newer cleaner suppliers to turn off the old state owned plants. NSW is not a distressed seller, and while the current government might be happy to sell at a lower price, the Opposition can play responsible and populist politics at the same time by not allowing the government to sell at any price.
Re 52
Yes, it always pays to be first, and to do it at the right time, hats of to Kennett. If Iemma doesn’t get privatization then I think labor has a serious problem, they are not united enough to deal with the fallout.
Will the markets settle in time? Perhaps Iemma should swap hints with bankers on how to deal with sleepness nights.
Unfortunately it will also mean the Liberals will limp on in their current state, power in the party will gravitate to NSW; god what a mess.
According to tonight’s ABC Sydney News, senior figures in the Labor Party are very worried, but there is as yet no viable alternative to Iemma.
Della Bosca fancied himself as Premier, but Iguanagate has finished off his chances of career advancement.
Iemma is perhaps fortunate all his rivals are in the Left(Watkins, Rees, Tebbutt), it’s the right wing powerbrokers(Tripodi, Obeid) who pull the strings.
So Jillian has to get Tripodi and Obeid, she can do it.
Antony, do you know who the new President of the Senate will be after the change over? Has it already been decided, or is it something the Labor caucus is yet to vote on?
56: New President of the Senate will be John Hogg.
ShowsOn, I have no idea. I don’t follow day to day politics that closely to be honest.
I heard the same rumour about a deal over the gun laws to get the Shooters Party guys to vote for privatisation. I reckon it has legs.
If Nile votes for it too and even a handful of Coalition members do too, it gets up in the Legislative Council. Of course none of this matters if the Coalition votes en bloc for privatisation in both houses, which is why we will have an Auditor-General’s Inquiry on the sale and why.
It’ll be fascinating to see if the Coalition split on electricity privatisation, given Debnam’s ‘green’ defection. I wouldn’t expect many Coalition MP’s to follow his example. Just about everything in NSW politics has now to be seen through the privatisation prism right now – especially the shenanigans between Della Bosca’s office and Iemma’s staffers over Iguanagate ( as the MSM terms it).
But back to poll numbers – the exhaustion of Greens prefs should see the end for ALP next election in NSW, unless of course Farrie O’Barrell can’t control the Right wing religious nuts led by Clarke and Alex Hawke, but it really is looking terminal with Morris at the helm, unless Costa is replaced by Watkins as Treasurer, with Firth and Rees given more responsibility. Please find somewhere to hide Linda Burney, as she looked like she enjoyed herself too much with the starlets at Cannes, whilst the Beechwood fiasco was boiling for a lot of poor unfortunate home builders back home – a bit like Marie Antoinette saying ‘let them eat cake’.
Morris should always put Watkins in front of the cameras, as he’s a clever media performer. There are some real Terrigal duds in the NSW Ministry, like Matt Brown, the Property Developing Housing Minister – that’s why Della was only ’stood down’ and could easily make a comeback if the DPP doesn’t recommend charges against Belinda ‘the Demon Namer’.
And what about the lovely Sophie Mirabella ( nee Panopoulos) she gives as good as she gets – if anyone could produce a ‘demon’, she could.
Belinda and Della should not have even touched a declaration, let alone have any of them released from/by their respective offices – perhaps they couldn’t find a Labor Lawyer they could trust?
Sleep Tight Dears and please feel sorry for Mr & Mrs Della – they can’t have been getting much sleep lately.
But to the really big news – isn’t A. Green a star? I say he is – worth his weight in Gold Hansards I say. The taxpayers are well served by his sterling psephological prognostications for the ABC and on this site – and courage to in participate in Bill Bowe’s great poll tragics site!
Finally – Will anyone ‘out’ the Possum? (No – PB) Or have I missed the revelation of his/her identity?
CS.
I’ve been promising the bosses a blog for ages, so I think the NSW Newspoll might be a good starting point.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/
As much as I hate conservatives, especially JWH, I’m warming more and more towards Fatty O’Barrel, I think Labour needs a good term or two in Opposition
to get its House in Order, and to Purge itself of the right wing wankers like costa
and iemma. So when I vote in the ‘11 state elections I shall give my
highest pref after my first choice (non two major party) for liberal in the lower house, and labour in the upper (after my first choice)…
New QLD and VIC Newspolls are out
The Oz claims Labors grip on the states is shaky, funny given that both states have Labor on 55 2PP
Labor could be on 110% 2PP and they would stil be saying it :-0)
While NSW is a very bad case.we also are moving into a time of great problems for all incumbents,,,The worldwide inflation in food and petrol prices..the problems of global warming,and all the related issues will make governments unpopular everywhere.
.Watch as Bush. Brown and many other are toppled in the coming years
In Australia all governments elected in the period 1928-30 were swept away by 1933!!
In the USA the 1932 election saw Hoover swept away at the end of 12 years of Republican rule…and usher in a twenty year Democrat regime under Roosevelt, and Truman
When Rudd won power I wondered then if he was going to be like Scullin…..Elected on the eve of the great depression,,,in an election which saw PM Bruce lose his own seat(!!)and then confronted with a host of problems which overwhelmed his Labor government.
Scullin arrived in Canberra to be sworn in in the week of the Wall Street Crash
Is Rudd going to be like Scullin ????
New threads up for Queensland and Victoria.
Brian McKinlay
I doubt very much that this downturn will be followed by fiscal tightening and tariff barriers being increased around the world. Thats what is required to repeat the great depression.
Post 1 Barry said:
“1
Barry Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 2:30 am
That’s scary! Shutdown Turnoff O’Farrell leading in an opinion poll.
It took over a decade to the fix the train services after O’Farrell got hold of them in the Greiner era.
Fortunately, there is plenty of time for the voters to get to know him before the next election and ensure he doesn’t become Premier.”
Barry O’Farrell was elected to state parliament in 1995 and was not part of the Greiner (or Fahey) government.
If you think the trains are “fixed” now then you are sadly mistaken.
With a sample of 1273 I take it this poll is unambiguously bad news for NSW Labor and Iemma. Thanks to Antony for the clarification – 54/46 makes it very clear. We can hardly be surprised. While I generally sympathise with the progressive/pro-Labor posters on this blog, I have found some of the continuous harpign about media bias in relation to the coverage of the Iguana incident hard to accept. Just because the media is biased, doesn’t mean Dellabosca and Neal did nothing wrong.
Moreover, regardless of whether any offence was committed regarding Iguana or not, the behaviour clearly smacked of a very arrogant attitude to the use of power for personal purposes which is both unethical and politically poisonous. I don’t really understand why “progressive” posters have tried to defend it. Unless the facts as reported are false, it is not defensible, and harms Labor badly. The mere fact that some people think “merely” unethical conduct is not sufficient to justify sacking unless an offence was committed, illustrates the problem. For everyone else besides politicians, it is more than enough reason.
Isn’t it great to know that all we have to do is vote in the opposition and all of the train problems will be fixed? Does anyone really believe that?
Don;t you think if there was a magic cure, to remain inpower, the government would “fix” the hospitals, trains etc. It will be worth seeing the Libs in government tring to “fix” these things. That’s what they’ll be promising going to the next election. Watch when they have to explain why they haven’t after a period of time.
Gary,
However, Mike Steketee provides room for thought in today’s piece.
“But there is far more involved than that, such as Labor’s relationship with trade unions. Just before he stood down as NSW Industrial Relations Minister, John Della Bosca explained what an in-principle agreement by governments meant to him: he would oppose any attempt to reduce safety standards and abandon the strong NSW law.
The trouble with this is that states like Victoria will not accept the NSW approach, which puts the onus of proof on employers, gives unions the right to initiate prosecutions and does not produce as good results as the Victorian legislation.
Della Bosca also did not see harmonisation as requiring a single national law, saying it was important to keep “distinctions that are effective for each jurisdiction”. ”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23922963-7583,00.html
I can’t see how changing one law will “fix” the NSW rail system but, hey, what would I know? I live in Victoria where complaining about our railways is a daily ritual.
Gary,
The point is that the reform of the rail system in NSW is being stymied by the unions there. Della Bosca seems to be the captive of the unions by what he is saying. I’d say this would be fertile ground for the Libs if they decided to push it.
Same with the Electricity reforms.
GG – My point is that even with those “reforms” our system is no better. If the Libs think that is a cure all they are in for a big surprise.
Do the Libs up there know where they stand on the electricity issue? Why would anyone being against the privatisation of electricity bother to vote for another party supporting the same policy?
I think that’s an important point GB (73). Surely a lot of the loss for support in Labor’s primary in the last few months has come from core Labor supporters not happy about Iemma’s privatisation plans.
This would suggest a stronger flowback to Labor of preferences than in 2007. Maybe Newspoll’s 2PP miscalculation ended up closer to the truth anyway.
Maybe Piping Shrike, but it may also be irrelevant. If the loss of core Labor support ends up with an Independent who finishes second, then the preferences don’t come back. The Liberals may end up third and help elect an Independent. And if they end up with an Independent who finishes third, then that’s usually a Labor vote lost. NSW Independents who get more than 15% of the vote almost always have a rate of exhausted preferences greater than 75%.
That was how Labor lost Balmain, Newcastle, Swansea and Wollongong in 1988, how they lost Lake Macquarie in 2007, and how they ended up being run a closer than expected race in Charlestown, Maitland and Newcastle in 2007.
That’s why I say I’m more interested in the primary vote. Coalition on 41%, Labor 32% and Greens plus Independents on 27% makes it very hard for Labor to win because there will be so many Labor seats they are struggling to hold against Greens or Independents.
It’s like Queensland in 1998. Labor got 38.9% of the primary vote, One Nation 22.7%, Liberal 16.1% and National 15.2%. On that result Labor got 44 seats and got an Independent on side to form government. That election became three different elections, the seats that were Labor-Coalition contests with a 4.5% 2PP swing to Labor, but Labor-One Nation contest caused massive swings against Labor, and National-One Nation contests even bigger swings against National.
The lower Labor’s primary vote in NSW, the more that Labor will face massive swings in its own seats that are two-candidate swings rather than two-party, and the more that optional preferential voting will help the Coalition because it has the highest primary vote.
OPV is very different compulsory preferences. You can’t assume preferences will flow back to the party of voter origin. If voters are pissed off with their traditional party, they don’t direct preferences back. Under compulsory preferential voting, they usually will because they won’t give preferences to the other side. But under OPV, they cast a protest vote and that’s it.
Antony, I think you have a point on the Independents which I believe pose more of an electoral threat than the Greens. The Greens have tended to position themselves relative to (and believe are dependent on) the ALP, and so there is an argument that preferences will eventually run back to the ALP if Labor can still pose the threat of the right getting in. The Independents on the other hand pose a drop out of the political system altogether and so I am not surprised with your observation that preferences to them are more likely to exhaust.
Having said that though, we also seem to be finding that this generation of Independents, once elected, tended to work much more comfortable with Labor’s more technocrat agenda (so in effect preferential voting works in another way!). That technocrat agenda is where Iemma is heading. He is in the middle of a process, some not of his control, but some of it is, and this poll is taken when the political negative effects of it have been felt but not the positives. We shall have to see where it ends up, but I wouldn’t write the government off yet.
Neither would I, but if you ask me for the mood of the NSW electorate at the moment, I’d rate it above the Cain/Kirner period and above Bannon post State bank collapse, but not much else.
If Iemma’s heading in a technocratic agenda direction, he better do something about getting basic services to work. I don’t think you are in NSW, but if you were, you’d understand the extra-ordinary anger that’s currently developing in Sydney about chronic road and public transport congestion. And in the current mood, everything is the government’s fault.
This week, a motor failed leaving the Spit Bridge open for 2 hours. Radio and papers scream Iemma government fault. Same with M5 tunnel emergency closure yesterday, F3 truck jack-knife today, brief harbour tunnel closure due to over size truck. This sort of anger feeds on itself eventually. And the government and the party and the unions are at each others throat at the same time, and every disgruntled backbencher whose been passed over cabinet is currently happy to brief the media on what’s going wrong.
Gary
I agree that many things need to hange to fix Sydney rail, but workforce reform is a big part of it. The current labor practices waste hundreds of millions per year, which in turn are then not spent on upgrading or maintaining the infrastructure and so it falls further behind. The average train driver couldn’t afford the cut in pay to become a starting doctor in a public hospital, let alone a nurse. Yet driving a train is simpler and less stressful. Other positions in Sydney rail – notably guards, are even worse. Their working conditions are indefensible IMO. Its an embarrassment to anyone who cares about principles of justice and fair reward.
Antony,
Although NSW has fixed term elections, do you know if there is any provision for going to the polls earlier than the fixed date? I’m thinking that if things keep going the way they are, Rudd might lean very heavily on Iemma to get the inevitable over with and give him some clear air for 2010.
Not by choice. It requires the moving of a vote of no confidence in the government with 8 days notice, debate on that motion leading to defeat of the government followed by a period in which a baton change to a new government is undertaken. If a new government cannot be formed, then an early election can be called. The process would take several weeks before the writ could be issued.
And I mean a real vote of no confidence, a specific motion, not defeat on legislation like electricity privatisation. So to get an early election, either the Labor Party would have to split on a permanent basis, or it would have to engineer its own defeat. Neither is likely.
The NSW Legislative Council cannot block supply or major tax bills, so it can’t be forced to the polls by the upper house either.
Hmm, interesting. I thought there was just no way to call an early election. Didn’t Gerhard Schroder get his parliamentarians to abstain on a vote of no confidence to trigger an early election (which he lost)?
But even if Iemma could manufacture an election, why the hell would he? If you were Iemma, you’d have to think that you’re very unlikely to win in 2011 and going early will only bring on the inevitable earlier. You might as well enjoy the power as long as you can.
Ben, there have been two early elections in Germany. Schroder did it after a string of Lander (state) election defeats for his party had changed the composition of the state-appointed upper house of Parliament. The government was no longer in the position to implement any legislation, and with the consent of the opposition, went through the time consuming process to initiate and early election.
The other early election was in 1982. The Free Democrats had switched side mid-term, meaning that Helmut Kohl had replaced Helmut Schmidt as Chancellor. The consensus was after that change, an early election should be held.
From memory, the political instability in the Weimar Republic means that the German Constitution and parliamentary rules mean that you can’t have a no-confidence motion without also specifying an alternative government. It’s often called a positive vote of no confidence. So any coalition united enough to bring down an existing government must also be united to support a new government. The process of getting an early election was deliberately made time consuming.
An early election in NSW would take time, would require the government to vote itself out of office, and would require the consent of the Opposition. Can you imagine a month of ‘Iemma gives up’ headlines before the Premier could even formally request an election. Even worse, what if Iemma supported a vote of no-confidence in his own government, and O’Farrell said ‘Well I’ll form government’. Precident means the Governor would give him that right. It might only last a week or two until another vote of no-confidence was passed, but it would put the Labor Party in the position of going into an election saying we don’t want to be in government.
Roads and public transport are the two biggest issues hurting this state government. There was another problem on the city rail network this morning, delaying trains by 30 minutes on some major routes! Motorists and commuters will sheet the blame home to Iemma, however fair or unfair that might be!
Yeah, it won’t happen. We’re stuck with the lot for 2 3/4 more years.
Progressive (83) I must have been travelling on the same train line as you were this morning (Friday) The 30 minute delay meant my Year 10 son was late handing in an assignment at school, his penalty: automatic deduction of 10% of the assessment mark for the assignment. He is not a happy chap, even more so after his father delivered a ‘lecture’ on being ‘better organised’.
It should not be said that my son’s circumstances are, at least directly, Morrie’s fault. However, transport delays or instances like the (recent) Spit bridge and M5 tunnel fiascos are really a symptom of government inaction (incompetence, negligence, whatever you want to call it) on basic service delivery issues. Any apologies from the Premier and/or his colleagues which are then coupled with self serving statements to the effect that the Opposition would do no better, are empty, unhelpful and desperate.
As for Gary Bruce (73) I suggest a useful starting point for understanding electricity privatisation issues in NSW, could be Antony’s post @52.
“Any apologies from the Premier and/or his colleagues which are then coupled with self serving statements to the effect that the Opposition would do no better, are empty, unhelpful and desperate.” Ahh, but true.
We have the same problems in Victoria and we ARE privatised.
I read Antony’s posting. Labor will either have the power privatised well before the next election or the policy will stall and the idea will crash and burn, enabling Labor to go to the next election promising then not to privatise. That will leave a Liberal Party promising to privatise at sometime into the future.
Channel 7 news recently showed documents proving how the private electricity companiews were ripping us off at the expense of their shareholders. Not a good look.
The unfortunate thing about Iemma is that he is a very compenent premier in the managerial sense, far better than Carr (think of Greiner without the extreme right wing economic agenda). His problem is the inability to purge the party of duds, and importantly a right wing media that is simply unbelievable in its antipathy towards labor – just look at clennell and benson. Clennell is a card carrying lib, and benson just wants to out flank penberthy from the right. Another problem is that the msm detests politics and politicians – they are leading this descent to the bottom.
Yet those thinking about voting Liberals in 2011 best think again – these right wing jerks will send NSW into complete chaos. Barrie is a puppet of the right, a nice guy, but completely useless.
Problem is, adorno, that i don’t think those arguments cut it for a 16 year old government. “It’s not our fault, you’re all biased against us, and anyway the other mob is worse” didn’t work for Howard last year (nor Keating before him) so why would it work for Morris?
Going for your fifth term in office you need to have a popular leader with a visionary agenda, or for the opposition to completely fall apart. While the latter is not out of the question, I think even the most diehard Laborite would concede there’s not much evidence of the former.